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Bible Quotation For Today/Let us consider how to provoke one another to love and good deeds, not neglecting to meet together, as is the habit of some, but encouraging one another.
Letter to the Hebrews 10/19-25: "Since we have confidence to enter the sanctuary by the blood of Jesus, by the new and living way that he opened for us through the curtain (that is, through his flesh), and since we have a great priest over the house of God, let us approach with a true heart in full assurance of faith, with our hearts sprinkled clean from an evil conscience and our bodies washed with pure water. Let us hold fast to the confession of our hope without wavering, for he who has promised is faithful. And let us consider how to provoke one another to love and good deeds, not neglecting to meet together, as is the habit of some, but encouraging one another, and all the more as you see the Day approaching."

Bible Quotation For Today/I am not asking on behalf of the world, but on behalf of those whom you gave me, because they are yours.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 17/09-13/I am asking on their behalf; I am not asking on behalf of the world, but on behalf of those whom you gave me, because they are yours. All mine are yours, and yours are mine; and I have been glorified in them. And now I am no longer in the world, but they are in the world, and I am coming to you. Holy Father, protect them in your name that you have given me, so that they may be one, as we are one. While I was with them, I protected them in your name that you have given me. I guarded them, and not one of them was lost except the one destined to be lost, so that the scripture might be fulfilled. But now I am coming to you, and I speak these things in the world so that they may have my joy made complete in themselves."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 02-03/15
Assad or ISIS/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/November 0/15
How Much Does the U.S. Government Still Deal with CAIR/Johanna Markind/The American Thinker/November 02/15
Lebanon's schools do double-duty to educate both Syrian, Lebanese students/Esperance Ghanem/November 02/October
What brought down the Russian jet in Egypt/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
Only fifty U.S. military personnel in Syria/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
Can the Vienna Talks bring breakthroughs in Syria/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
New Zealand’s Israel / Palestine initiative disappoints/Sharif Nashashibi/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
America's Least-Known Mideast Military Force/David Schenker/Politico/Washington Institute/November 02/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on November 02-03/15
Report: Berri Ready to Request Central Bank Governor for Loan to Pay Military Salaries
Salam: I Hope to Continue Shouldering My Responsibilities despite Obstacles
Khalil: An Exceptional Formula Reached to Pay Salaries of Military
Army Intelligence Members Killed in Raids in Maameltein
Kataeb Slams Rival Camp for 'Destroying, Crippling State'
Report: Divisions Emerge at National Dialogue over 'Resistance-Supporting' President
Shehayyeb Speaks of 'Progress' in Trash File as Arslan to Voice his Concerns at Tuesday's Dialogue
Saudi Prince Charged in Record Drug Bust
Lebanon: Deadly shootout rocks Maameltein nightclub

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 02-03/15
Israel allegedly strikes missile base outside Damascus
What coordination? Russia and Israeli warplanes play cat and mouse over Syria
Russian airline rules out technical fault or pilot error
Powerful cyclone kills three on Yemeni island, heads for Qaeda-run city
Stateless child born every 10 minutes, U.N. says
Iraq parliament bars govt from passing reforms
Palestinian killed after ‘attack on Israeli soldier’
ISIS claims murders of Syrian activists in Turkey
Al-Qaeda urges fight against West and Russia
Erdogan says election win ‘was vote for stability’
Yemeni island lashed as cyclone heads for mainland
Iraq declares emergency amid torrential rain
ISIS takes Syrian town as fighting looks set to intensify
EU gives 28 million euros to Syrian refugees in Jordan

Report: Berri Ready to Request Central Bank Governor for Loan to Pay Military Salaries
Naharnet/November 02/15/Speaker Nabih Berri has expressed his disappointment with the failure to pay the salaries of military officials, highlighting the need to urgently resolve this issue, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Monday. His visitors on Sunday reported him as saying that he is “willing to request the Central Bank governor to pay the wages should all efforts to resolve the case fail.”The loan will be paid back to the bank at a later time, he added. Furthermore, he criticized “those who reject to tackle the issue”, saying that they are pushing towards “the slow suicide of the state.” High-ranking military sources meanwhile told the daily that the case of the salaries should not be subject to the same political meddling of other national issues. This issue should not fall victim to sectarian and petty interests, they warned. To that end, they urged the political powers to take action to solve the problem “because the salaries of military officials is a red line.” “The morale of the military personnel should not be targeted, because such a violation targets the whole country,” they stressed. The sources said that L.L. 118 billion are needed to pay the salaries, adding that “these funds are available, but the paralysis of state institutions are thwarting the payments.”They warned that Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji will not remain silent over the failure to pay the wages. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil had carried out on Sunday a series of contacts to “resolve this issue in a manner that would not force his ministry to commit a violation,” reported al-Joumhouria. An Nahar daily on Monday reported that Berri, Prime Minister Tammam Salam, Khalil, and former general secretary of the government Suheil Bouji are devising a decree that would order the payment of the salaries without having to call cabinet to session to address it. The military have not received their salaries for the month of October which drew the ire of the army. Lebanon has been without a head of state since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May last year. The Baabda Palace vacuum has caused the parliament's paralysis and huge differences among cabinet members. The government assumed the responsibilities of the head of state in his absence but sharp differences have stopped it short of taking important decisions.

Salam: I Hope to Continue Shouldering My Responsibilities despite Obstacles
Naharnet/November 02/15/ Prime Minister Tammam Salam on Monday hoped he will be able to continue his duties as premier regardless of any “obstacles,” as he voiced concern over the situations in the country. “The country is witnessing a worrisome performance and disturbing practices,” Salam warned during a ceremony at the Grand Serail. “We have failed to find solutions and we are accumulating negativities,” he added. The premier, however, hinted that he will brave difficulties and stay on as the head of the government. “The responsibility is huge and we cherish Lebanon and I hope I will continue to shoulder my responsibilities no matter how many obstacles I might encounter,” he said. Salam's government has been paralyzed in recent months due to disputes over its decision-taking mechanism and the thorny issue of security and military appointments. Media reports have recently said that the premier could resign should the government fail to address the unprecedented garbage crisis that has spiraled out of control. The crisis erupted in July with the closure of the Naameh landfill. Authorities failed to find an alternative to the facility, which resulted in the pile up of garbage on the streets of the country and in random sites. There are fears the uncollected waste, coupled with the rain season, could spread diseases such as cholera among the population. The garbage crisis has also sparked an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests in the country.

Khalil: An Exceptional Formula Reached to Pay Salaries of Military
Naharnet/November 02/15/An agreement has been reached on Monday on the controversial salaries of military officials and the personnel will be paid finally after some delay in receiving their payments. “An exceptional but legal formula has been reached to pay the salaries of the military officials,” said Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil. “We are keen on implementing the law and we must contribute to the preservation of the legal and constitutional rules,” he added after a meeting with Defense Minister Samir Moqbel and Army Commander Gen. Jean Qahwaji. Moqbel had criticized earlier how officials are handling the issue of delayed wages of military officials, revealing that a solution has been reached over the matter. Moqbel had said after holding talks with Prime Minister Tammam Salam that: “A solution has been reached and God willing at the end of the day, military officials would have been paid.” He did not give further details. He credited Salam with devising a solution to the crisis, saying that he “acted with great patience and studied the issue objectively until we reached a positive conclusion.”He also thanked Khalil for his efforts. “The army is the guarantor of stability and security for the country,” stressed Moqbel. “I hope politicians and the media would not meddle in military affairs and allow the army to perform its duties,” he stated. The military have not received their salaries for the month of October which drew the ire of the army. Lebanon has been without a head of state since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May last year. The Baabda Palace vacuum has caused the parliament's paralysis and huge differences among cabinet members. The government assumed the responsibilities of the head of state in his absence but sharp differences have stopped it short of taking important decisions.

Army Intelligence Members Killed in Raids in Maameltein
Naharnet/November 02/15/Two members of the Army Intelligence were killed in a raid on one of the nightclubs in the area of Maameltein in search for fugitives, an army statement said on Monday. “A patrol of the army intelligence was investigating information on some fugitives in one of the nightclubs in the Maameltein area when fugitive Mahdi Hussein Zoaiter and his companions opened fire killing two soldiers,” the army said in a statement. “The army retaliated and an exchange of fire led to the killing of Zoaiter and another wanted man, Ahmed Ali Ammar, in addition to four other citizens accompanying them,” it added. The statement added that there are eleven search and investigation warrants in addition to six arrest warrants against the fugitives for previous crimes. The army raided the Wet nightclub at dawn in search for the fugitives when the armed men opened fire, killing a sergeant first class and a soldier and injuring six other individuals including two women, LBCI said. It added that the fugitives of the Zoaiter, Ayoub and al-Azayer families are wanted on charges of narcotics and facilitating prostitution. The army cordoned off the area and the Military Prosecutor Judge Saqr Saqr is inspecting the clash site in Maameltein.
The military police kicked off investigations in the incident.

Kataeb Slams Rival Camp for 'Destroying, Crippling State'
Naharnet/November 02/15/The Kataeb Party called Monday for confronting what it described as “the local-regional camp that is destroying the state,” noting that it will continue its boycott of the national dialogue sessions. “After the garbage crisis turned into a health and environmental danger that is threatening entire Lebanon, the Kataeb Party asks what's left of authority in Lebanon, represented in the cabinet, to prove to the Lebanese that there is still a State that is concerned with protecting them,” the party urged in a statement issued after its politburo's weekly meeting. Accordingly, it called on the government to “begin the implementation of the plan that was endorsed in cabinet, which involves the immediate removal of trash from the streets.”Lebanon has been suffering from a trash disposal crisis since July with the closure of the Naameh landfill. Politicians have failed to find an alternative to the landfill, which resulted in the pile up of garbage on the streets of the country. There are fears the uncollected waste, coupled with the rain season, could spread diseases such as cholera among the population. In its statement on Monday, Kataeb announced that it will boycott Tuesday's dialogue session because “people's affairs remain neglected, the garbage is still on the streets and the cabinet is still paralyzed.”Slamming the camp led by Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement, the party said “there is a local-regional camp that is endorsing the approach of destroying and crippling the State, from the presidency to the parliament and the cabinet, as well as to the interests of the Lebanese and the salaries of citizens and the armed forces.”It called on the Lebanese to “stand as a firm bulwark in the face of this camp through adhering to the State and its constitutional and security institutions.”The FPM, Hizbullah and some of their allies have been boycotting parliamentary sessions aimed at electing a new president, stripping the meetings of the needed quorum. The presidential vacuum that started in May 2014 has had a detrimental impact on the work of the cabinet and the parliament. Speaker Nabih Berri had recently invited the rival parties to national dialogue sessions in parliament in a bid to ease tensions and to resolve the political deadlock.

Report: Divisions Emerge at National Dialogue over 'Resistance-Supporting' President
Naharnet/November 02/15/Divisions have emerged at the national dialogue talks over the characteristics of a new president for the country, reported the daily An Nahar on Monday. It said that the March 8 and 14 camps are disputed over a president who supports the resistance, Hizbullah, and one who calls for Lebanon to adhere to its policy of disassociation from regional conflicts. The March 8 camp, led by Hizbullah, is advocating the former, while the March 14 camp is advocating the latter. The March 14 camp is demanding that the definition of “resistance” be made given the absence of a defense strategy for the country. The policy of disassociation was adopted during national dialogue sessions held in 2013. All members of the talks, including Hizbullah, had supporting the policy. The development of the Syrian crisis into an armed conflict however resulted in the violation of the commitment as Hizbullah became involved in the fighting alongside the country's ruling regime. The March 14 camp has repeatedly demanding that the party withdraw its fighters from the neighboring country. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. The national dialogue talks have been focusing on the characteristics of a new president. A new round of talks are scheduled to be held on Tuesday.

Shehayyeb Speaks of 'Progress' in Trash File as Arslan to Voice his Concerns at Tuesday's Dialogue
Naharnet/November 02/15/Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb revealed that progress was made in recent days over resolving the trash disposal crisis, justifying the decision to set up a landfill in the Khaldeh region, reported As Safir newspaper on Monday. He told the daily: “Some complications remain and some clarifications need to be made over the problem and they should be overcome today.” He explained that the proposed landfill in the Ouzai area would be set up in a location that is not “environmentally dead”. The chosen area has long been a sewage dump, Shehayyeb revealed. MP Talal Arslan had over the weekend expressed his rejection to the establishment of a landfill in Khaldeh. Those opposing the new landfill said that it it unacceptable to have one at the entrance of the capital Beirut. They also highlighted its close proximity to the airport, which would pose a risk to aviation because the garbage would attract birds, which are a threat to planes. In addition, they stressed that a landfill would lower the land value of the nearby properties. Arslan is expected to express his concerns over the dump site during Tuesday's national dialogue session. A proposal had been made in recent days to set up a landfill in the Costa Brava in Khaldeh. Lebanon has been suffering from a trash disposal crisis since July with the closure of the Naameh landfill. Politicians have failed to find an alternative to the landfill, resulting in the pile up of garbage on the streets of the country. Heavy rain last week brought with it flooded streets coupled with waste, as experts warned of the health and environmental impact of the crisis. Progress has been made in setting up a landfill in the northern region of Srar and southern region of Kfour.

Saudi Prince Charged in Record Drug Bust
Naharnet/November 02/15/Authorities on Monday charged a Saudi prince and nine others with drug trafficking, a week after they were caught in a record drug bust, a judicial source told AFP. Saudi prince Abdel Mohsen Bin Walid Bin Abdulaziz and four others were detained by airport security on October 26 after nearly two tons of Captagon capsules and cocaine were found waiting to be loaded onto their private plane at Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport. A public prosecutor "has charged 10 people, including five arrested individuals -- a Saudi prince and Saudi nationals... with smuggling and selling the drug Captagon," the judicial source said. Five individuals still at large were included in the charges, including three Lebanese and two Saudi nationals, the source added. Captagon is the brand name for the amphetamine phenethylline, a synthetic stimulant. The banned drug is consumed mainly in the Middle East and has reportedly been widely used by fighters in Syria. According to the judicial source, the case has been transferred to an investigative judge. The drug bust was "the largest one that has been foiled through the Beirut international airport," a security source told AFP last week on condition of anonymity. Saudi Arabia's large royal family has had past run-ins with authorities in various countries. In September, a Saudi prince was arrested in Los Angeles for allegedly trying to force a woman to perform oral sex on him at a Beverly Hills mansion. But authorities decided not to pursue the charge, citing a lack of evidence. In 2013, a Saudi princess was accused in Los Angeles of enslaving a Kenyan woman as a housemaid, but the charges were also eventually dropped.

Lebanon: Deadly shootout rocks Maameltein nightclub
November 02/15/BEIRUT – Two Lebanese army soldiers have been killed in a dawn shootout at a nightclub in the Maameltein coastal district north of the country’s capital. “At dawn today, as an intelligence patrol was searching for several security violators in a nightclub in Jounieh’s Maameltein locality, wanted person Mahdi Hussein Zeaiter and his companions opened fire on the patrol, killing two soldiers,” the Lebanese Armed Forces announced in a statement Monday. “The members of the patrol retaliated to the gunfire and the [subsequent] clash resulted in the death of Zeaiter, wanted person Ahmad Ali Ammar and four civilians who were in their company.”Lebanese daily An-Nahar went into details on the unusual incident at Wet Nightclub, identifying the two slain LAF intelligence members as Akkar residents Sergeant First Class Maroun Tannous Khoury from the village of Baqarzla and Michel Zaki al-Rahbaoui from the village of Al-Shaykh Mohammad. The report added that Rahbaoui’s father, himself an LAF member, had also been killed while on duty during the Nahr al-Bared clashes in 2007. The newspaper also said that of the 8 people killed in the clash, two were young women. The army, for its part, added that eleven search and investigative communiques and six arrest warrants had been issued against the two wanted persons for “committing various acts of organized crime.”“The military police have taken up the investigation under the supervision of the competent judiciary.”

Israel allegedly strikes missile base outside Damascus
Now Lebanon/November 02/15/BEIRUT – Israel has allegedly bombed a regime missile base north of Damascus near the border with Lebanon, only days after another purported Israeli airstrike in the area. “Israeli planes breached Lebanese and Syrian airspace and bombed the Syrian regime’s 155th Brigade [base] in the Qutayfa area, destroying a number of missile warehouses,” media sources told the pro-rebel 7al.me outlet. 7al.me also spoke to a Syrian activist calling himself Ahmad Yabrudi, who told the outlet Israeli planes had “entered Syrian territory from Lebanon at 9:30 p.m. [Sunday] and bombed Scud missile warehouses belonging to the regime.”“The planes bombed three warehouses containing scud missiles at the 155th Brigade [base] in western Qalamoun’s Qutayfa area, completely destroying the above-ground [installations].”Pro-Hezbollah Mulhak news also reported on the incident, citing an exclusive source who also said that Israeli warplanes targeted the Qutayfa base. “The Israeli planes did not enter Syrian airspace,” the source added. “The 155th Brigade was targeted from above Lebanese territory.” For its part, pro-rebel outlet Souria Net said the 155th Brigade base was an important launch site for missile strikes on rebel held areas of Syria. “The raids targeted three ballistic missile silos at the 155th Brigade, which is one of the foremost bases responsible for firing scud missiles at Syrian towns outside regime control,” the outlet’s correspondent in the Qalamoun region reported.
Souria Net also spoke to a defected Syrian army officer, who gave details on the location of the base. “Brigade 155 lies some 7 kilometers away from the town of Qutayfa and is part of the missiles directorate in Syrian army staff command’s artillery and rocket forces,” a defected 1st Lieutenant, identified only by his first name told the outlet. “Yasser” said that the Qutayfa base contains three “launch battalions” as well as “an engineering battalion, located at the end of the brigade base, where missiles are gathered and loaded with launch-fuel.”“There are also vaults and silos that have been dug in to the mountains surrounding the Brigade.”“The Brigade has two launch battalions in Rif Dimashq’s Al-Nasiriya area; one of them is the 578th Battalion, which carried out the first launch of Scud missiles against the Syrian people.”“The Al-Nasiriya area is also home to a large warehouse containing those missiles.”
Friday night airstrike
The Sunday evening strikes come after reports emerged that Israel had conducted an airstrike Friday near Syria’s border with Lebanon. Leading Israeli newspaper Haaretz cited the pro-opposition news outlet Syria Moubasher as saying that Israeli jets had bombed Ras al-Ayn and Qutayfa at 11 p.m. on Friday. 7al.me went into detail on the purported Friday strike, with a local activist saying that Israel had bombed a Hezbollah position between western Qalamoun’s Ras al-Maara and Al-Jubba that houses surface-to-surface missile warehouses. “The second strike targeted the Syrian regime’s 21st Brigade [base], which is located in western Qalamoun’s Qutayfa area,” the activist added. Friday’s strikes led to the death of around 10 Hezbollah fighters and seven National Defense Force militia fighters, he added. In late April, Israel reportedly conducted airstrikes in the same area, targeting the bases of the regime’s 155th and 65th Brigades. “Several blasts occurred in the center of the town of Qutayfa and near the two towns of Qara and Yabrud outside Damascus,” Al-Jazeera cited sources as saying on April 25. Al-Arabiya, in turn, said the air strikes had hit “Scud-missile caches” in the bases.

What coordination? Russia and Israeli warplanes play cat and mouse over Syria
DEBKAfile Special Report November 2, 2015/Syrian media reported an Israeli air force attack Sunday, Nov. 1, after two sorties Friday night against Syrian army and Hizballah bases in the Qalamoun Mountains on the Lebanese border. The IDF declined to confirm or deny these reports. Syrian sources described a large number of Israeli airplanes as bombing a Hizballah unit based in the village of El Ain in northern Lebanon and the arms depot of the 155th Brigade of the Syrian army at Al-Katifa to the east. The two targets are 70 km apart. So these air strikes must have targeted two key points along the Iranian arms supply route to Hizballah. They also raise three important questions:
1. Did Israel’s Tel Aviv command center use the hotline to Russian headquarters to give Moscow prior warning of air strikes against Syrian and Hizballah targets, explaining that no harm was intended to the Russian military in Syria?
Hardly likely; the Russians would not be expected to tolerate Israeli bombardments so close to their own military enclave in Latakia province.
2. Did Russian surveillance planes and stations detect the approach of Israel’s bombers and decide not to interfere?
After all, Israel has turned a blind eye to repeated Russian air strikes in the last few days against rebel positions in the southern Syrian town of Deraa and Quneitra opposite IDF Golan positions. The two cases suggest a gentlemen’s agreement between Russia and Israel to abstain from interfering with each other’s air operations over Syria, so long as there are no direct clashes between the two air forces. This could easily have happened when Russian planes bombed Quneitra.
So is Moscow giving Israel enough aerial leeway to strike Iranian, Syria and Hizballah targets so long as there is no interference in Russian operations?
That too is unlikely because it would amount to permission for the Israeli air force to operate inside the anti-access/area denial bubble which the Russian air force has imposed over Syria.
3. Did the Israeli air force use electronic warfare measures to jam the tracking systems installed in Russian spy planes and air defense missile systems in Syria?
debkafile’s military sources have this answer: Israel and Russia have been conducting a clandestine electronic contest for 33 years, since the memorable episode in 1982, when the Israeli air force destroyed in a single strike the entire Russian air defense missile system installed in Syria.
Since then, the Russians have worked hard to develop electronic warfare measures for gaining on the Israeli edge, without much success.
This was strikingly demonstrated in September 2007, when the Russian-made electronic tracking and warfare systems, which were the backbone of Syria air defense missile batteries, missed the Israeli warplanes as they came in to bomb the North Korean-built Iranian-Syrian plutonium reactor going up in northern Syria.
This lapse may have recurred in the case of the Israeli air sorties Saturday.

Russian airline rules out technical fault or pilot error
Reuters, Moscow; AFP, Saint Petersburg Monday, 2 November 2015/The Russian airline whose jet crashed in Egypt killing everyone on board said on Monday the crash could not have been caused by a technical fault or human error. The crash, in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula on Saturday, could only have been the result of some other "technical or physical action" which caused it to break up in the air and plummet to the ground, said Alexander Smirnov, deputy general director of the airline, Kogalymavia. He did not specify what that action might have been, saying it was up to the official investigation to determine. "The plane was in excellent condition," Smirnov told a news conference in Moscow. "We rule out a technical fault and any mistake by the crew," he said. He said there had been no emergency call from the pilots to services on the ground during the flight, which took off from the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh and was bound for the Russian city of St Petersburg. Kogalymavia's deputy general director for engineering, Andrei Averyanov, said a 2001 incident when the plane's tail section struck the tarmac on landing was fully repaired and could not have been a factor in the crash. He said the aircraft's engines had undergone routine inspection in Moscow on Oct. 26 which found no problems and he said in the five flights before the crash, the crew recorded no technical problems in the aircraft's log book. Oksana Golovina, a representative of the holding company that controls Kogalymavia, told the news conference the airline had experienced no financial problems which could have influenced flight safety. Debris of a Russian airplane is seen at the site a day after the passenger jet bound for St. Petersburg, Russia, crashed in Hassana, Egypt, on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015. (AP)Black box analysis
A source in the committee analyzing the black box recorders said the Russian airliner was not struck from the outside and the pilot did not make a distress call before it disappeared from radar. The source declined to give more details but based his comments on the preliminary examination of the black boxes recovered from the flight. Meanwhile, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev called on Monday for a thorough investigation into the plane crash. "The key task is to investigate in detail what caused the tragedy," Medvedev said in remarks showed by Rossiya-24 state television. A Kremlin spokesman also said there are not yet any grounds to rule out any theory for the crash of a Russian airliner in Egypt. The remains of a Russian airliner which crashed is seen in central Sinai near El Arish city. (Reuters) Victims flown back home. A plane carrying the remains of scores of people killed in the plane crash landed in Saint-Petersburg early on Monday, an Agence France-Presse correspondent at the scene said. The plane, the first to bring back the bodies of those who died when Russian airline Kogalymavia's flight 9268 crashed in Sinai Peninsula, arrived in the Pulkovo airport of the country's second-largest city at around 0300GMT. Russian officials confirmed that 144 bodies were on board the plane. Egypt had earlier said that it would transport the remains of 162 people. The remains were to be taken in a motorcade to a crematorium in Saint Petersburg for identification, which will begin later on Monday, according to Russia's emergency ministry, which organised the flight. Family members have been providing DNA samples at a crisis centre set up close to the airport, now the site of an impromptu memorial where people are bringing flowers and cuddly toys to commemorate the victims, many of them children as young as 10 months old. Most of those who died were vacationers from Saint-Petersburg and the surrounding region who were due to come back home at midday Saturday from the popular Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. Relatives of the victims of a Russian airliner with 217 passengers and seven crew aboard has crashed, react as they gather at Pulkovo airport in St.Petersburg, Russia, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015. (Reuters)

Powerful cyclone kills three on Yemeni island, heads for Qaeda-run city
Reuters, Aden Monday, 2 November 2015/A rare tropical cyclone packing hurricane-force winds lashed the Yemeni island of Socotra on Monday, killing three people and injuring dozens, residents and officials said, as it headed for an Al Qaeda-controlled town on the mainland. Amateur pictures and videos on social media, which could not be immediately verified, showed torrents of water washing through the provincial capital Hadibu’s streets. “Three people were killed, around 100 have been injured and hundreds of families were forced to leave their homes in coastal regions for the mountains,” said a local official, without elaborating on the causes of death. Situated in the Arabian Sea and slightly larger than Majorca or Rhode Island, isolated Socotra is home to hundreds of exotic plant species found nowhere else on earth. Its around 50,000 residents speak their own language. Also cut off politically from mainland Yemen by a seven-month war there between Iran-allied fighters and a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, its impoverished residents are not likely to receive prompt aid. The U.S. Navy’s Pearl Harbor-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center said the storm, named Chapala, had reached maximum gusts of 240 kilometer per hour, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane. Yemeni officials said it was the most powerful storm the mostly arid and hot country had experienced in decades. The center projected the cyclone would make landfall on the mainland just west of the restive port city of Mukalla, which has been run by a tribal council and Al Qaeda militants since the army and government institutions withdrew in April. Residents there worried that the power vacuum would mean no authorities were in a position to deal with the storm damage. “The sea water level has risen by 9 meters and has destroyed the Mukalla seafront,” said resident Muhammed Ba Zuhair. “Many people have left their homes and are seeking refuge in schools. No relief or aid efforts are under way by either the tribal council or Al Qaeda, and the situation is really bad.”

Stateless child born every 10 minutes, U.N. says
AFP, Geneva Monday, 2 November 2015/Being born with no nationality can cause children irreparable harm, the United Nations said Tuesday, estimating that a stateless child is born every 10 minutes, notably as a consequence of armed conflict. "In the short time that children get to be children, statelessness can set in stone grave problems that will haunt them throughout their childhoods and sentence them to a life of discrimination, frustration and despair," U.N. refugee agency chief Antonio Guterres said in a new report. The UNHCR report highlights consequences such as children being deprived of medical care, education and future access to employment. "In countries hosting the 20 largest stateless populations, at least 70,000 stateless children are born each year" -- or one about every 10 minutes, said the UNHCR, which is aiming to eliminate statelessness by 2024. The report, to be launched by Guterres at the U.N. headquarters in New York on Wednesday, notes that in 30 countries national documentation is required to access basic medical treatment, while in 20 countries stateless children cannot even be vaccinated. The problem is particularly severe among migrants and refugees affected by conflict, the report said. In Syria, children can acquire nationality only through their fathers, but the four-year civil war has forced more than four million people to flee the country and left 25 percent of refugee families fatherless. Women who fled Syria while pregnant told UN interviewers that their hopes of one day returning home with their families could be crushed without a birth certificate to prove that their children are Syrian. The U.N. agency proposed several measures to eliminate the scourge of statelessness, including the reform of discriminatory laws that prevent mothers from passing on nationality to their children. Children should also automatically become nationals of the country where they are born, UNHCR further said. The report identified discrimination as the main cause of statelessness, pointing to 20 countries where nationality can be denied on the basis of ethnicity, race or religion. In some countries, laws prohibiting such discrimination are ignored in practice, such as the Dominican Republic where people of Haitian descent have often been denied Dominican citizenship, UNHCR said. Globally, "several million children are watching their childhoods slip away without the sense of belonging and protection that comes with a nationality," the report said.

Iraq parliament bars govt from passing reforms
By Reuters Cairo Monday, 2 November 2015/Iraq’s parliament voted unanimously on Monday to bar the government from passing important reforms without its approval in an effort to curb Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi amid discontent over his leadership style, lawmakers said.
The chamber acted after Abadi unilaterally enacted reforms in August that it deemed a violation of the constitution including his dismissal of the vice presidents and deputy prime ministers and cuts to salaries of government employees. “Under this resolution no more absolute authorities for the prime minister,” one member of parliament, who asked to remain anonymous, told Reuters. Any rise in political tensions could undermine Baghdad’s efforts to tackle an economic crisis and form a united front against Islamic State militants posing the worst threat to Iraq since a U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. Last week over 60 members of Iraq’s ruling State of Law coalition threatened to pull parliamentary support for Abadi’s reforms - aimed at stamping out corruption and incompetence - if he did not heed their demands for wider consultation. Many of the lawmakers who signed the letter are supporters of Abadi’s predecessor, Nour al-Maliki, whom critics branded as a polarising and authoritarian figure, allegations he denies. Abadi announced his reform campaign in August after popular protests gathered steam over graft and poor water and electricity services in Iraq, a leading OPEC oil producer. The reforms aimed to scrap senior political offices that have become a vehicle for patronage for some of the most powerful people in Iraq and root out incompetence which has undermined the battle against Islamist militancy. Graft and poor morale in the armed forces was a significant reason why Islamic State insurgents swept through northern Iraq last year virtually unopposed, and then proceeded to seize about a third of the country. The ultra-hardline Sunni Muslim group, which also controls large parts of neighbouring Syria, has been fuelling a sectarian civil war ravaging parts of Iraq. Some of Abadi’s reforms have been implemented, while others appear to have stalled. Iraq’s three vice presidents, whose positions were to be cut, remain in place. When he took office in September 2014, Abadi was seen as a consensus builder who could heal divisions between Iraq’s Sh’ite Muslims, Sunnis and non-Arab Kurds that sharpened during Maliki’s tenure. But senior officials have said they are not consulted about Abadi’s reforms and often learn about them through the media. “Parliament rejects any parties, including the government, overlooking its authorities,” said another MP. “The resolution was passed unanimously and it dictates that any decision needs the approval of parliament.”

Palestinian killed after ‘attack on Israeli soldier’
By AFP Jerusalem Monday, 2 November 2015/A Palestinian attempted to stab an Israeli soldier at a border crossing in the northern West Bank on Monday and was shot dead by the army, Israeli police said. A second Palestinian, allegedly an accomplice, was arrested, according to police. The attempted attack took place on the Palestinian side of a crossing between Israel and the occupied West Bank. Also on Monday, a separate incident saw a Palestinian stab three Israelis near Tel Aviv before being arrested, police said. “Three people were wounded, one seriously, one moderately and one lightly,” a statement said. Nine Israelis, 69 Palestinians -- around half of them alleged attackers -- and an Arab Israeli have been killed in a wave of violence since the beginning of October, raising fears of another Palestinian intifada or uprising.

ISIS claims murders of Syrian activists in Turkey
AFP, Beirut Monday, 2 November 2015/The ISIS militant group on Sunday posted a video claiming responsibility for the brutal murders of a Syrian anti-ISIS activist and his friend in southern Turkey last week. The video posted online said ISIS "slaughtered" Ibrahim Abdul Qader, 20, and fellow media activist Fares Hamadi in Sanliurfa on Friday "after they conspired with the Crusaders against ISIS". Abdul Qader had been working with the Raqa is Being Slaughtered Silently (RBSS) activist group, which sheds light on ISIS atrocities in areas under militant control in Syria. "May every apostate know that he will be slaughtered silently," the video said, in an apparent reference to the group's title. The video then displayed a series of news reports about the RBSS group and its anti-ISIS activities.It closed with amateur video footage of a man who appeared to be Hamadi, his throat slit.
Abdul Qader's body was not shown. Abdul Qader and Hamadi's bodies had been found at the latter's home in Sanliurfa on Friday morning by another friend, according to RBSS member Abu Mohammad. The group's activists have been killed by ISIS inside Syria in the past, but this is the first time a member had been murdered outside the war-torn country, Abu Mohammad said. Turkey has long been accused by Syrian opposition activists, Kurdish fighters and sometimes even Western partners of allowing ISIS members to slip back and forth across its 911-kilometre (566-mile) frontier with Syria.
Bloody bomb attacks in southern Turkey, including one in July that claimed 32 lives in Suruc, have been blamed on ISIS. The group has never claimed responsibility for the blasts.

Al-Qaeda urges fight against West and Russia
By Reuters, Cairo Monday, 2 November 2015/Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on supporters to band together to confront the threat from the West and Russia in Syria and Iraq, the latest recording suggesting greater unity between al-Qaeda and ISIS. "The Americans, Russians, Iranians, Alawites, and Hezbollah are coordinating their war against us -- are we not capable of stopping the fighting among ourselves so we can direct all our efforts against them?" Zawahiri said in an audio recording released on the Internet on Sunday. It was not clear when the recording was made but references to Russian aggression suggest it was made after Russia, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, launched air raids against opposition groups and ISIS in Syria on Sept. 30. In a recording released in September, Zawahiri dismissed ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as illegitimate but said his followers would join them in fighting the Western-led coalition in Iraq and Syria if possible. "My mujahideen brothers in all places and of all groups ... we face aggression from America, Europe, and Russia ... so it's up to us to stand together as one from East Turkestan to Morocco," Zawahiri said. ISIS, the ultra-hardline group that controls large parts of Iraq and Syria, has called for a holy war against both Russia and the United States in response to air strikes on its fighters in Syria. Any cooperation between al-Qaeda and ISIS would further complicate efforts to stabilize the Middle East, where militant groups have gained influence and escalated attacks since the Arab uprisings of 2011 toppled autocrats who had contained them.

Erdogan says election win ‘was vote for stability’
Reuters and AFP, Ankara Monday, 2 November 2015/Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Sunday’s election result, in which the AK Party he founded regained its majority, showed that the nation had chosen to protect an environment of stability and confidence. The conservative Islamic-rooted party gained 49.4 percent of the vote, giving it 315 seats in the 550-member parliament. "Our people clearly showed in the November 1 elections that they prefer action and development to controversy," he said in a statement. Voters "have given proof of their strong desire for the unity and integrity" of Turkey, he added. Erdogan also said in an emailed statement that the most important message from the result was for the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group that “violence, threats and bloodshed cannot coexist with democracy and the rule of law.” Turkey’s security forces have been battling PKK militants in the country’s predominantly Kurdish southeast in a renewed surge in violence since a ceasefire collapsed in July. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu described the outcome as a victory for democracy. “Today is a victory for our democracy and our people,” Davutoglu told a crowd of cheering AKP supporters outside his home in the central Anatolian city of Konya, a ruling party stronghold. “Hopefully we will serve you well for the next four years and stand in front of you once again in 2019,” he said, referring to Turkey’s next general election in four years time. Davutoglu is expected to make a broader policy speech at his party headquarters in the capital Ankara later on Sunday. Investors and Western allies hope the vote will help restore stability as well as confidence in the more than $800 billion (518 billion pound) Turkish economy, allowing Ankara to play a more effective role in stemming a flood of refugees from neighboring wars via Turkey into Europe and helping in the battle against ISIS militants. This time, there were few of the flags, posters and campaign buses that thronged the streets in the build-up to June’s vote. But President Recep Tayip Erdogan framed this sombre re-run as a pivotal opportunity for Turkey to return to single-party AKP rule after months of political uncertainty. “It is obvious in today’s election how beneficial stability is for our nation and today our citizens will make their choice based on this,” Erdogan told reporters after voting in his home district of Camlica on the Asian side of Istanbul. Flanked by his wife in a gold-colored headscarf, he voted under tight security with snipers watching from nearby rooftops. Voters were sharply divided in their views on a return to single-party rule or the prospect of a coalition. “The little welfare, better living conditions, bigger house and fancier appliances we have, we all owe it to AK Party and Erdogan,” said Nurcan Gunduz, 24, at the airport in Ankara. “Look at the state of the country after the June 7 election results and we didn’t even have a coalition government. I can’t imagine how worse it would be if we did have it.”The election was prompted by the AKP’s inability to find a junior coalition partner after the June outcome. Erdogan’s critics said it represented a gamble by the combative leader to win back enough support so the party can eventually change the constitution and give him greater presidential powers.

Yemeni island lashed as cyclone heads for mainland
AFP, Aden Monday, 2 November 2015/The Yemeni island of Socotra near the entrance to the Gulf of Aden was lashed on Sunday by strong winds and rain, damaging dozens of homes, an official said. The storm presaged the approach of cyclone Chopala which is expected to hit the Yemeni mainland and Oman on Monday. “More than 80 houses were damaged on the coast of Socotra and hundreds of people were rescued and hospitalized,” Salem Zaher, the mayor of Hadibou, the island’s main town, told AFP. “More than a thousand families were evacuated and resettled in schools and camps” inland amid “intense rainfall and strong winds”, he added. The U.N.’s weather agency said on Friday that the “super cyclonic storm” named Chapala was expected to make landfall at around midnight on Monday in Yemen and Oman. On Saturday, Yemen’s meteorological agency called on residents of the southeastern provinces of Hadramawt and Mohrah -- and people on Socotra -- to stay at least one kilometer from the coast.Socotra island is less than 250 kilometres from the Horn of Africa and 350 kilometres off the Yemeni mainland. It has 50,000 inhabitants, mostly fishermen.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization has described Chapala as “an extremely severe cyclonic storm”. It said Chapala’s wind speed was the equivalent of a category four hurricane. Omani authorities ordered schools closed on Sunday and Monday in the southwestern province of Dhofar, ONA state news agency said. It said satellite images have shown that Chapala was approaching the shores with wind speeds between 220 and 250 kilometres (136 and 155 miles) per hour. Oman’s civil aviation authority warned that waves higher than seven meters were expected to hit the beaches of Dhofar.

Iraq declares emergency amid torrential rain
AFP, Baghdad Monday, 2 November 2015/Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared an emergency in areas overwhelmed by heavy rain that has caused widespread flooding and multiple deaths, his office said Sunday. Abadi ordered a “declaration of emergency in the areas affected by torrential rainwater that exceeded drainage capacity”, his office said in a statement. And he announced the “mobilization” of ministries, provinces, security forces, civil defense and civilian volunteers for rescue efforts in Baghdad and other provinces.. Iraq was hit by multiple days of heavy rain that, when combined with the country’s decrepit infrastructure, caused major flooding in Baghdad and other areas that resulted in deaths and health problems. Many streets and houses were flooded with a combination of rainwater and sewage from the overwhelmed drainage system in Baghdad, the Arab world’s second-largest city that is home to an estimated eight million people. And some areas remain flooded even after several days of sunny weather. The heavy rain also added to the misery of thousands of people who have been displaced by violence, with rivers of mud wrecking tent camps in which they now live. More and possibly heavier rain is forecast in the coming days, and even putting the government and security forces on alert will not address the underlying problem of sewers that cannot handle the necessary volume of water, making more flooding likely.Iraqis have suffered through years of abysmal public services, especially in terms of government-supplied electricity that cuts out for much of the day during the blistering summer. They took to the streets to protest poor services and widespread corruption earlier this year, but while Abadi announced various reform measures, they have yet to effect real or lasting change.

ISIS takes Syrian town as fighting looks set to intensify
By John Davison and Tom Perry Reuters, Beirut Monday, 2 November 2015/Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters drove Syrian government forces from a western town on Sunday, a monitoring group reported, as fighting escalated despite a flurry of diplomatic activity and talks between regional rivals. Syrian parties to the multi-sided conflict said they saw no end to fighting between rebels and the government despite talks in Vienna on Friday that included Iran for the first time.Iran’s supreme leader meanwhile said elections should be held to end the war, echoing a proposal by Russia that has been dismissed by President Bashar al-Assad’s opponents as a ruse by his allies to keep him in power. It all underlines the intractable state of the four-year-long war that has killed 250,000 people and driven more than half the population from their homes, causing a refugee crisis in neighboring states and Europe. Talks between world powers in Vienna on Friday adjourned with calls for a nationwide ceasefire but key differences remained between rivals backing opposing sides. The war has entered an even more violent phase in the month since Russia began air strikes in support of Assad. Differences over his future remain the main obstacle in the way of diplomatic efforts. While the United States and Russia back rival sides in the war between the government and rebels in western Syria, both are also waging separate campaigns against the ISIS group that controls wide areas of the east and the north. ISIS, which is separately fighting both the Syrian army and rebels in western Syria, has launched several attacks on government-held areas since Damascus launched a new offensive against it east of Aleppo, backed by Russian air strikes. In a fierce assault that began by detonating two suicide car bombs, ISIS militants took the town of Maheen in the southwest of Homs province from government forces, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.
Some 50 fighters on the government side were killed or wounded, and clashes raged afterwards on the outskirts of a mostly Christian town nearby, Sadad, it said. ISIS issued a statement claiming the advance, which brought it within 20 kilometers of the north-south highway linking Damascus to Syria’s other main cities Homs, Hama and Aleppo. Syrian state media made no mention of the attack.The Observatory’s Rami Abdulrahman said the attack might have been a response to pressures the group is under elsewhere. On the other side of Syria in the northeastern province of Hasaka, Islamic State is facing a new offensive launched by a recently formed U.S.-backed rebel alliance. The Observatory reported fierce fighting between the rebel alliance, including the Kurdish YPG militia, and ISIS fighters in the area of al-Houl near the Iraqi border. The United States says it will step up its fight against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, having decided to station special forces in Syria to support rebels fighting the jihadists, and to position more U.S. jets in Turkey and expand air strikes. Air strikes by Turkish and U.S. aircraft in Syria on Saturday killed more than 50 Islamic State militants, Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency said on Sunday.
Long battle ahead
Most of the recent attacks by the Syrian army, which is backed by Russian air strikes and allied fighters from Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have focused on insurgent groups other than ISIS. Several Western military officers attending a security conference this week in Bahrain said that before any political progress can be made, and ahead of new international talks set for within two weeks, rebels and government forces will both look to make gains on the ground and increase their leverage. A prominent rebel leader meanwhile said talks in Vienna on Friday had borne no fruit. “If Russian-Iranian stubbornness continues, the situation will head toward escalation,” warned Bashar al-Zoubi, head of the political office of the Yarmouk Army, a rebel group operating under the banner of the moderate Free Syrian Army. The rebels are hoping that regional states including Saudi Arabia and Turkey will increase military support to them. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir suggested repeatedly in the past week that support to the Syrian opposition would intensify in the face of Tehran and Moscow shoring up Assad. At the rare regional talks on security in Manama, he said Riyadh was considering intensifying support to moderate Syrian rebels by providing them with “more lethal weapons,” but gave no further details. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in comments reported by Iranian state TV, criticized foreign powers that arm and fund Syrian opposition fighters.
“The solution to the Syrian question is elections, and for this it is necessary to stop military and financial aid to the opposition,” state media outlets quoted Khamenei as saying.

EU gives 28 million euros to Syrian refugees in Jordan
AFP, Jordan Monday, 2 November 2015/The European Union on Sunday said it was allocating an extra 28 million euros to Jordan to help it meet the urgent needs of Syrian refugees as winter sets in. EU humanitarian affairs commissioner Christos Stylianides made the announcement during a visit to the Zaatari camp in northern Jordan that is home to 80,000 refugees from across the border in Syria. "Today I'm announcing the allocation of 28 millions euros ($30.8 million) specifically for Jordan. This money will assist the urgent needs of Syrian refugees and their host communities," Stylianides told reporters. The latest aid raises the overall EU humanitarian assistance to 198 million euros since Syria's conflict broke out in 2011."The Syrian refugee crisis is well into its fifth year and the needs of refugees and the hardships they are facing are greater than ever. As winter approaches, daily life is set to become even tougher, which is why this help is so important." The funds are expected to be used to provide the refugees with basic needs such as health care, clean water, shelter, rent and education, the EU says.Stylianides toured the Zaatari camp and met U.N. officials who work there as well as refugee families. Later he visited a Syrian family living in the town of Mafraq near Zaatari and who depend on EU funds to survive. The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR estimates that more than four million Syrians have fled the civil war that has ravaged their country and reportedly killed more than 250,000 people. Jordan says it has taken in 1.4 million Syrians fleeing the war but the UNHCR puts the figure at 600,000. Around 80 percent of Syrians in Jordan live outside camps.

Assad or ISIS
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/November 0/15
Dictatorship breeds frustration that generates terrorism. Replacing autocracies with democracies was Washington’s answer to terrorism after 9/11, yet America’s failure left the Middle East with two competing forces: dictators like Bashar Assad and terrorist groups like ISIS. Now the world has to choose between these two in Syria, after both have worked together to kill US troops and undermine democracy in Iraq. The Middle East lives in a bind. For sociocultural reasons, states like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are unable to sustain elected governments. Even without an ongoing civil war like those in Syria and Iraq, a more stable Lebanon is drowning in garbage because of its political stalemate.
For the Lebanese, the Iraqis, and now the Syrians, picking rulers has always been a choice between the lesser of two evils. Often times, citizens of these states compare the bad to the ugly, instead of debating the merits of those fit to govern. Those fit to govern are usually too weak to survive the fatal political game. Often times, faced by their failing states, the average Lebanese or Iraqi suggests that one ‘strong’ politician take over, eliminate all rivals, and run the country like clockwork. The model of the enlightened despot, so popular in non-Western countries, has so far proven to be the only viable one in most Arab nations. Since America’s failure in Iraq and the rise of lawless post-Arab Spring lands like Libya, Yemen and Syria, the world has been looking for figures who can put these states back together, even if that means restoring the world’s worst dictators. In Syria, the world now believes that Chemical Assad is less brutal than head-chopping ISIS. Both Assad and ISIS show governance skills — to the extent that ISIS offered to solve Lebanon’s garbage problem.
Assad’s ability to govern has dwarfed his opponents, who have made a mockery of themselves. The Syrian opposition has the opportunity to show some governing talent by running Syrian refugee camps, raising funds and creating relief networks. Instead, most members of the Syrian opposition have used donations for self-enrichment and luxury travel. They often appear on TV as pundits, rather than political leaders with alternative plans to run their country. It’s unfortunate that the only two parties that can run Syria after the war are Assad and ISIS, which shows that a functioning state in Syria, Russia, Iraq or Iran always comes at the expense of liberty, freedom and democracy.
It’s also unfortunate that Assad’s state is designed such that it will crumble in his absence, just as Saddam Hussein’s state vanished in April 2003. The Egypt solution, the one that America hopes for in Syria, is to replace Assad with another dictator with similar pedigree and profile.
Like Assad, ISIS is too entrenched in both Iraq and Syria to be forced out. ISIS is not a political or a paramilitary organization that can be defeated, but a situation that has resulted from decades of local oppression and international complicity.
The savagery of ISIS is not new either. In the seventh century, Byzantine General Heraclius let the mobs kill his predecessor, the usurping General Phocas. The mob then paraded Phocas’s mutilated body around the streets of Istanbul. In 1958, Iraqis paraded the mutilated corpses of the toppled Hashemite royal family in the streets of Baghdad.
The world needs to muster all the soft power it can to change the Middle East’s violent culture and make it more amenable to sustaining accountable public institutions. At the same time, the world should foster the formation of a Syrian government in exile, replete with bureaucracy and security forces, before injecting it into protected Syrian territories outside of Assad’s and ISIS’s control.
The Geneva I model of transitioning from Assad to a national unity government — a scheme world powers discussed in Vienna on Friday — is just more of the same. The same thing was tried in Lebanon and Iraq and in both countries produced failed states. America should help democratize the Middle East just as it created robust democracies in Nazi Europe and fascist Japan. President Obama prefers hodgepodge solutions because he thinks America cannot build the world while taking care of itself. But when big presidents like FDR and Harry Truman ruled, America knew how to walk and chew gum at the same time. FDR led America out of its worst depression while simultaneously leading the world out of its darkest days.
Without an American-led effort to transform the Middle East from its current medieval status to a modern region, the odds are that Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran will keep warring, with or without Assad or ISIS.
**Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington Bureau chief of Alrai newspaper. He tweets @hahussain

How Much Does the U.S. Government Still Deal with CAIR?
Johanna Markind/The American Thinker
A 2013 Inspector General report found the FBI maintained contacts with CAIR against official policy.
Several federal agencies appear to have ongoing contacts with an organization that has been connected to international terrorism.
October 6 Conference Call with DHS, DOJ & FBI
On October 6, 2015, according to Department of Homeland Security spokesman S.Y. Lee, DHS convened a conference call with "senior officials from the FBI, Department of Justice (DOJ) Civil Rights Division, DOJ Community Relations Service, DHS Office of Infrastructure Protection and Federal Emergency Management Agency." Also on the call were what Lee characterized insipidly as "faith-based, community-based, and civil rights and civil liberties advocacy stakeholders," and what the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) characterized as "American Muslim community leaders."
CAIR's press release on the subject coyly does not say whether it was one of the "American Muslim community leaders" participating in the meeting.
The Holy Land Foundation, a Hamas front group, made an early $5,000 donation to CAIR to help establish it.
Its possible involvement is significant because, after several CAIR founders and/or officials were convicted in the Holy Land Foundation case – America's largest terrorism financing case – the FBI severed its liaison relationship with the group, banning it from cooperation for the foreseeable future. CAIR was not indicted as a defendant, but was deemed an unindicted co-conspirator. The FBI did "not view CAIR as an appropriate liaison partner" and "suspended all formal outreach activities" with it.
Despite the FBI's policy restricting contact with the group, a 2013 Inspector General report concluded that during the current administration, FBI offices have flouted the policy by continuing outreach activities with CAIR. FBI leadership "did not conduct effective oversight to ensure compliance with the policy."
Fourteen months after the IG report was released, the United Arab Emirates designated CAIR as a terrorist organization.
FBI spokesman Christopher M. Allen confirmed the FBI's participation in the October 6 call, and claimed he did "not have information" about whether CAIR likewise participated. He also confirmed that the bureau's anti-CAIR policy remains in effect. The policy does not ban all interaction between CAIR and the bureau, Allen said. Even if CAIR were present, that "would not necessarily represent a violation of the policy." Asked the identity of the FBI official who approved the bureau's participation in this non-public call organized by a federal agency, Allen did not respond.
DHS spokesman Lee likewise failed to answer questions about whether CAIR participated in the October 6 call. He also ignored questions about whether DHS has a policy in place restricting the agency's contact with CAIR.
DOJ's main press office (the FBI has its own office) completely ignored questions about whether it had its own policy regarding CAIR contacts and whether CAIR participated in the October 6 call. DOJ even refused to confirm that it participated in the call, as DHS's Lee reported.
In fairness, it should be noted that the call was evidently convened in response to a request from CAIR that DHS address Muslim community concerns about protests planned to take place outside mosques in several American cities on October 9-10. Nevertheless, even if true, the fact that CAIR may have requested a call does not mean government agencies were obliged to include it, let alone one with "senior officials."
It appears the FBI ignored its own policy of avoiding contact with CAIR.
It is noteworthy that none of these agencies – the FBI, DOJ, and DHS – would answer direct questions about whether CAIR participated in the call, and that the FBI – which by its own admission still has a policy sharply restricting contact with CAIR – failed to address a direct question about who authorized (what DHS spokesman Lee characterized as) "senior officials" to participate. Lee's failure to respond to the question about DHS's policy on CAIR, and DOJ's complete failure to answer any questions, are also of note. Lee's description of call participants as "faith-based" and "civil rights" stakeholders is suggestive because CAIR presents itself as a mainstream organization advocating for the civil rights of American Muslims, and mainstream media sometimes echo CAIR's self-description.
It seems quite likely CAIR did participate in the call, and that the FBI ignored its policy of avoiding contact with the organization (either violating it outright or failing to follow required procedures to obtain approval/waiver). Given their reluctance to answer questions, it also seems likely DHS and DOJ either have similar policies in place or recognize how awkward it is that they don't have such a policy, in light of the FBI policy and the reasons for it.
October 6 Meeting with State
State Department press director Jeff Rathke says a range of US government officials have met with CAIR officials.
A State Department official confirmed CAIR's report that CAIR and other American Muslim organizations met with officials from State on October 6. CAIR described the purpose of the meeting as to increase the number of Syrian refugees allowed into the United States and to complain about the situation on the Al Aqsa Mosque compound, a/k/a the Temple Mount. The State Department source characterized the meeting as part of its "routine" engagement with faith-based organizations.
The October 6 meeting with CAIR is not unique. Previously, State Department press director Jeff Rathke stated, "As part of our routine engagement with a broad spectrum of faith-based organizations, a range of US government officials have met with officials of the Council on American-Islamic Relations," implying that the State Department is among those government officials meeting with CAIR.
Unlike the FBI, the State Department has no policy limiting its contact with CAIR.
The same source who confirmed the October 6 meeting also indicated that State has no special policy limiting its contacts with CAIR, but did reiterate that the US requested additional information about the UAE's November 2014 decision to designate CAIR a terrorist organization. The source did not say whether the government had received any further information from the UAE.
Given both the prior involvement of CAIR officials in terrorist funding, resulting in CAIR's unindicted co-conspirator status and the FBI decision to sever its prior liaison relationship with the group, and the UAE's decision less than a year ago to designate the group as a terrorist organization, it is disappointing that the State Department has no policy at least limiting its contact with the group. It is also disappointing that DOJ (of which the FBI is a part) and DHS are not open about their policy toward CAIR and the reasons for it.
In fact, it is regrettable that the executive branch as a whole does not have a unified policy about it, and enforce that policy. As the FBI indicated in its April 2009 letter to Senator Kyl, its decision to suspend CAIR was made pending resolution of "whether there continues to be a connection between CAIR or its executives and Hamas" or, one assumes, any other terrorist group. That was six and a half years ago. What have the FBI, and the executive branch as a whole, found? Have they done nothing since then besides ask the United Arab Emirates for information about this American group?
**Johanna Markind is associate counselor at the Middle East Forum

Lebanon's schools do double-duty to educate both Syrian, Lebanese students
Esperance Ghanem/November 02/October
BEIRUT — Syrians escaping the civil war that has been raging in their country since March 2011 now account for almost one-third of Lebanon’s population. They represent a huge burden for Lebanon and are affecting various sectors, including the public education system.
In June 2011, the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon stood at 2,000, but today, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Education and Higher Education, the number of Syrians registered with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has reached 1.181 million. Media reports cite an unofficial figure of 1.8 million. According to numbers Al-Monitor obtained from the ministry, 400,000 of the refugees are of school age, 3-15 years old, but only 150,000 of them, 37.5%, are studying in Lebanese public schools.
Syrian children not attending school are being deprived of an education because their parents have not sought to enroll them or due to their inability to keep pace with the educational program after extended absences. The Ministry of Education has therefore developed an extracurricular, four-month Accelerated Learning Program to enable students to catch up and stay in the educational system. The largest number of school-aged refugee children are in Baalbek-Hermel, the Bekaa Valley, Mount Lebanon and the north.
Under normal circumstances, the Lebanese state covers students’ public education fees and the cost of books. This, however, changed with the Syrian war and the ensuing influx of refugee because of the state’s limited capacity to cope. All children are entitled to free education in Lebanon, prohibiting discrimination between a Lebanese and a Syrian student. Lebanon, therefore, called for international assistance to deal with the increased number of students.
The Lebanese Ministry of Education is now working with United Nations organizations, namely, UNHCR and UNICEF, which are funded by agencies like UKaid (Department for International Development) as well as the European Union and individual countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the United States. The donor agencies and organizations are fully covering the education fees for non-Lebanese students.
Although exact figures are unavailable, Lebanon has been receiving enough international aid to provide Syrian children access to morning school sessions already available to Lebanese children, without additional burden to the state. To provide education to the largest possible number of students, the Ministry of Education developed afternoon sessions specifically for displaced students to ease overcrowding. Some schools now accommodate at least 500-700 refugee children in the afternoon. There are now 259 such schools, compared to 144 last year, with some 85,000 children enrolled.
International donors are paying $363 for each refugee attending morning classes and $600 for students enrolled in afternoon classes. The cost difference arises from the extra expenditures incurred in setting up and running the afternoon sessions. The donors also pay $60 per student to cover parents’ contribution to the school fund. This assistance covers administrative expenses, education fees and school operating costs, but excludes improvements to infrastructure and equipment.
Education Minister Elias Bou Saab told Al-Monitor, “International aid meets 80% to 90% of Lebanon’s needs, which is an achievement and great progress.” He pointed to the importance of the confidence that the international community must have in Lebanon in dealing with the education issue with transparency and through partnership, as the donor organizations are monitoring their expenditures. He added, “The Ministry of Education has succeeded in confining education to public schools, knowing that schools lacking [official] status had previously been receiving displaced students.”
Bou Saab added, “The biggest challenge lies in the continuation of the annual international education support through UNICEF, the UNHCR and the World Bank,” further warning that the interruption of such assistance would lead Syrian students to the streets.
While the biggest challenge for the Ministry of Education is to provide education to the largest possible number of Syrian children, another challenge it faces is not letting the current situation negatively affect Lebanese students. In this regard, Bou Saab said, “The afternoon shift aims at providing education to Syrian students who failed to follow the Lebanese curriculum due to their different level of education.”
In several areas, the number of Syrian students is close to or greater than that of Lebanese students, especially in Mount Lebanon. The Ministry of Education had initially managed to limit the number of Syrian students admitted to each class, but the system became overloaded amid the worsening of the refugee crisis. There was concern that delays in educating the displaced might negatively affect the Lebanese students, especially in language learning, because of the difference between Syrian students' narrower exposure to languages compared to the broader focus in the Lebanese curriculum.
The ministry official overseeing the Syrian student situation told Al-Monitor that the morning shift teachers are exhausting themselves dealing with the educational differences between Lebanese and Syrian students. The Ministry of Education is taking steps in this regard, and through the British Consulate and French Embassy, has organized training courses for teachers to help them cope with the educational needs of all children as well as maintain harmony between different groups of students, minimize potentially destabilizing impacts and handle psycho-social and language issues among students and their parents. The training is organized around Reaching All Children with Education, a three-year plan launched in early 2014 to last three years. The plan also involves several other themes, chief among them securing education and the necessary equipment to educate children.
The displaced students are following the Lebanese curriculum, and school principals, according to the Ministry of Education, say that they are eager to learn. Until a political solution ends the suffering of the Syrian people, Lebanon will need all the support it can get to cope with the burden of the war and prevent a Syrian generation from growing up without an education.
Esperance Ghanem
Contributor, Lebanon Pulse
**Esperance Ghanem is a main news anchor on Lebanese channel OTV. She has previously worked as a newspaper and TV reporter, a correspondent in the Lebanese presidential palace and ministry of foreign affairs and as editor for the UN section of Al-Balad newspaper.

What brought down the Russian jet in Egypt?
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
The tragic crash of Russian airliner Kolavia/Metrojet’s Flight 9268, an Airbus A321-200, in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula in southern Arish killing 224 people illuminates key security and economic issues. The site is spread over nearly 20 square kilometers and is the worst crash in Russian aviation history.
The fact that the jet crashed 23 minutes after takeoff, apparently on auto-pilot at 31,000 feet and rising, and dropped out of the sky in less than 30 seconds, is raising questions about what exactly happened. It seems the jet experienced a catastrophic failure. The plane blew up in the sky. No one will know the exact cause of the disaster one hundred percent until the appropriate forensics are completed and released to the public. Even then, there will likely be skeptics. Of course, conspiracy theories and sickening calls of triumph erupted immediately. The crash occurred over the Sinai Peninsula, home to the ISIS’s Sinai Province. Social media erupted with congratulations that the Russians were taught a lesson for their intervention in Syria and the killing of Syrian Muslims by airstrikes. Some even invoked the horrible memory of Aminat Nagayeva and Satsita Dzhebirkhanova, the two “Chechen black widows” who allegedly destroyed two Russian jets mid-flight in 2004 in revenge for the killing of their husbands by Russian security forces.
Later in the day, ISIS media claimed responsibility for the downing of the jet, saying that the group “brought down” the plane. I believe that assertion is false given that Flight 9268 was way above the threshold height of 15,000 feet for a man portable air defense system (MANPADS) missile to shoot the jet down. Sinai Province is not known to be in possession of weaponry than that can shoot above 15,000 feet. Let’s be clear: There are reportedly eight MANPADS variants in ISIS hands. While most are Soviet-era models, the Russian Federation command guided SA-24 and Chinese FN-6 have been sighted among ISIS’ arsenal over the past few years. Their batteries are likely drained and unable to be fired accurately or successfully. Other MANPADS versions –1st generation infrared and reticle scan-- on the regional black market are incapable of solid operation too. A hypothetical MANPAD attack on a commercial aircraft can only be done on take-off or landing around an airport. Local force protection measures prevent this event from occurring if there is any serious means and intent by extremists. I also believe it is unlikely that a passenger was responsible: The flight was a charter aircraft through St. Petersburg tourist companies. Russian security for its citizens travelling is tight, although baggage can be tampered with.
Of course, conspiracy theories and sickening calls of triumph erupted immediately
Nevertheless, a number of airline companies, Lufthansa, Air France, and other airlines, are now avoiding flying over the Sinai Peninsula as a general precaution but also to avoid a conflict zone –where the Egyptian army is confronting Sinai Province on a daily basis-- until the crash cause is ascertained. This action is a now a normal procedure by the bulk of the aviation industry around the world. Meanwhile, British Airways and Ryanair are continuing their flying over the Sinai to Sharm el-Sheikh. But the move by some carriers also means that re-routing means longer flights and more fuel costs. We are already seeing the economic impact for airline companies of closed airspaces in and around Syria and parts of Iraq, for the past few years. The quick response of Russian and Egyptian authorities to Flight 9268 is dramatic. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) immediately dispatched over 100 personnel of its rescue and recovery responders. EMERCOM’s rapid response outside of Russia to Egypt illustrates Moscow’s capacity and capability in the immediacy of the crisis.
Serious economic interests
Both Moscow and Cairo have serious economic interests at stake. Specifically, the Russians and the Egyptian are both interested against the catastrophe focusing on a plane diversion or a terrorist attack. The Kremlin is involved militarily and politically in Syria and with close ties between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, do not want this event to get out of control in their info-sphere. Russia is now a partner with Egypt in a number of economic arenas including the defense realm. For Egypt, the security threat to their tourism hub can decimate the industry in Sharm el-Sheikh. Sisi, speaking to high-ranking army officers, asked them to observe a moment of silence before urging the public not to jump to conclusions. He said: “This is a complicated matter and requires advanced technologies and broad investigations that could take months.” The longer the investigation takes, the more doubt there will be about security and safety in Egypt. Cairo doesn’t want security flaws out in the public especially if there is proved to be a problem at Sharm el-Sheikh airport. Both accidents and attacks are claiming the lives of tourists to Egypt. That’s bad news for Egyptian business continuity.
Finally, Russian authorities are looking at Metrojet closely: Not only the owners of the company and their maintenance records but also background checks on employees. The airline has violated safety standards before and has been fined by Russia’s Interstate Aviation Committee. The airplane itself, 17 years old, suffered a “tail strike” more than a dozen years ago upon landing in Cairo that corrupted the fuselage. In addition, it should be pointed out that this particular aircraft type— the Airbus—is a foreign aircraft in Russia, so maintenance is expensive due to the weak ruble and thus, the company may have tried to cut costs, thereby affecting the upkeep of the airplane’s engines.
Clearly, this catastrophe will resonate for some time to come. In 2004, Flash Airlines Flight 603 took off and crashed from Sharm El-Sheikh killing 135 French nationals. The findings of the investigation were disagreed upon by the investigating countries including terrorism claims by a Yemeni group versus mechanical failure. Now, like other airliner disasters-- the two recent disasters with Malaysia Airlines come to mind-- the Metrojet disaster exposes a multitude of issues that are not only important for Russia and Egypt, but the region as well.

Only fifty U.S. military personnel in Syria!
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and similar groups have an army of more than 30,000 fighters in Syria. The Iranians say they are managing 100,000 fighters of different nationalities, while the Russians have around 3,000 troops. Washington has finally decided to send a force... of only 50 military personnel. We do not know they will be able to do, or the political meaning of sending them. Everyone views this as an indication that Washington is not serious regarding anything it says about Syria, whether on the level of confronting ISIS, rejecting Russian expansion, or its keenness over a transition of power as part of a plan to end the civil war. It would have been better if Washington had not sent anyone, instead of only 50 military personnel. It would have been better if Washington had not sent anyone, instead of only 50 military personnel. What was expected from it was to support the Syrian national opposition with arms, intelligence and diplomacy in order to impose on ongoing negotiations the only possible solution: a Syria without Bashar al-Assad in power, and the establishment of a transitional authority that consists of figures from the current government and the opposition. Without such a plan, the war and the presence of terrorist groups will be prolonged.
Repercussions
Unlike the Americans, the Russians arrived in Syria with a political message that is supported by fighter jets. They are gaining unprecedented influence as a result. However, the Russians must feel now that their air force will not end the siege on the Assad regime. Assad himself is besieged in Damascus. So far, daily Russian shelling of Aleppo governorate has only resulted in displacing tens of thousands of residents to areas controlled by extremist groups. Syria has become more dangerous than Afghanistan in terms of threatening world security, as it is the biggest nest of terrorist organizations, and is producing trained fighters and preparing them to return home to start a new journey of violence.

Can the Vienna Talks bring breakthroughs in Syria?
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
The conjunction between the efforts on Syria and Yemen is interesting, especially as the talks also coincided with Saudi Arabia for the first time agreeing to Iranian participation in an international conference on Syria. At the same time, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has stated the war in Yemen could end “soon”, as the Houthis and pro-Ali Abdullah Saleh faction agreed to abide by Resolution 2216 and to engage in U.N.-backed talks accordingly, and after “gains” on the battlefield by the Saudi-led Arab coalition in Yemen.
Washington and Moscow must have no doubt played a role behind the scenes to contain the recent public escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and to find common ground and begin confidence-building measures between the two key states.
The Syrian issue is not sufficient for Riyadh to test Iran’s intentions. Rather, the first and foremost test is in Yemen, where Iranian tentacles have reached the Saudi border via the Houthis, posing a direct threat to Saudi national security.
In the midst of mutual Saudi-Iranian escalation, there has now been a sudden breakthrough in both Syria and Yemen. This was evident from Adel al-Jubeir’s statements on Yemen during a joint press conference with UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond; and the Vienna talks that convened Friday, bringing together for the first time Iran and Saudi Arabia to discuss the Syrian crisis. In addition to the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, the Vienna meeting included Iran, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, as well as EU Foreign Policy chief Federica Mogherini and European countries involved in the Syrian file, such as France. If one goal of the Vienna meeting is to push the parties to demonstrate good intentions towards the Arab region, Yemen seems to be an easier test for Iranian intentions than Syria. Yet Lebanon could now be the best and most primed place to prove good will on the part of Iran, Saudi, Russia, the United States, Turkey, Egypt, and Europe. One way this may be achieved is by admitting that the decision to obstruct presidential elections there is a regional one, and that the time has come for an international consensus to rescue Lebanon from political vacuum.
Rumor has it that the timetable being proposed by Russia and others on Syria spans between 18 and 24 months, based on military estimates of the time required to defeat ISIS
Indeed, while Syria is the main theme of the Vienna summit, the path to political settlement there remains long and arduous. First, there is a need to build confidence among all sides concerned with Syria’s future and the future of international roles in the emerging Middle East.
What is happening now is that the United States is intensifying its war on ISIS in Iraq, and Russia its war on ISIS in Syria, in coordination between Moscow and Washington, with Turkey and Iran involved in varying degrees and with implications for Arab-Israeli relations and Egypt’s position in the regional balance of power. The old Middle East, as the directors of U.S. and French intelligence services told us, “is finished,” as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the Middle East has become a base for exporting terrorists.
Military and intelligence cooperation
Putin said that no country in the world can fight terrorism alone, without engaging in intelligence coordination. Putin is thus seeking military and intelligence cooperation in the war on terror in the Arab region and the Middle East. He will not seek to lead the war alone, as this could prove costly for Russia, surrounded by five Muslim-majority republics. What Putin did not say is that he is the other face of former U.S. President George W. Bush, who once said his war in Iraq was a war on terror far from U.S. cities. Likewise, Putin wants to fight terror far from Russian cities, in Syria. But what both Bush and Putin ignored is that they contributed radically in fueling terrorism and luring it to Iraq and Syria through both their direct and proxy wars.
Both men reduced Iraq and Syria to being questions of terrorism, and barely flinched as they counted hundreds of thousands of victims in Iraq and Syria, as long as the war kept terrorism away from their countries. In truth, U.S. President Barack Obama is not that different.
Not long ago, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan manufactured the jihadists in Afghanistan to defeat the Soviet Union and succeeded. However, this soon backfired, culminating with the terrorist attacks of 9/11 that spared none of them in way or another.
Russia’s hatred for those jihadists, who were the tool that brought down the Soviet Union, is deep seated, and today there is a good opportunity to exact revenge. Moscow is profoundly hostile to Islamism and Jihadism, and this is why Putin has stressed the need for international intelligence cooperation during his address to the meeting of heads of intelligence of Independent States in Moscow.
At the same time, during an intelligence conference in Washington this week, the head of French intelligence Bernard Bajolet declared that the Middle East as we know it is over forever. Bajolet said countries like Iraq and Syria will never regain control of their former borders. He said: “"We see that Syria is already divided on the ground, that the regime is controlling only a small part of the county, only one-third of the country which was established after WWII. The north is controlled by the Kurds,” and ISIS controls the center. "We have the same thing in Iraq" Bajolet also said, adding that "I doubt really that one can come back to the previous situation."
His counterpart CIA director John Brennan, said: "When I look at Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, it's hard for me to envision a central government in those countries that's going to be able to exert control or authority over the territory that was carved out post World War II." This is what intelligence chiefs are saying publicly. What they are doing behind closed doors is a different matter that will not come out to the light until after military operations are completed and further bloodshed occurs. Even with regard to political meetings that promise to pave the way for settlements and breakthroughs, military escalation seems to be necessary for deals to take place, as its outcome will set the pace for the negotiations. Rumor has it that the timetable being proposed by Russia and others on Syria spans between 18 and 24 months, based on military estimates of the time required to defeat ISIS, al-Nusra Front, and other organizations Russia designates as terrorist. According to sources, this is what Russia has requested to complete the military mission, while the political solution to accompany the operations will fall within the same timetable give or take.
Assad’s departure, peacefully or otherwise
One of the issues discussed in Vienna I – and perhaps to be discussed in a Vienna II – and previous preparatory meetings in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, is the re-formation of the regime in Damascus as well as the when and the how of Assad’s departure, peacefully or otherwise. Indeed, the form of the new regime will have to take into account that the majority of Syrians are Sunnis, while a reasonable settlement cannot allow a Sunni domination and the exclusion of minorities, including Alawites.
Names of strong Sunni figures are being discussed for the post of prime minister, who would have expanded powers, while the president will continue to be an Alawite, in a solution similar to the Taif Accord in Lebanon. Another idea being discussed is preparing a Sunni force in Syria and another in Iraq. Some are proposing the Free Syrian Army (FSA) as one possibility, to be trained and armed by the United States. According to sources, Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz spoke with U.S. President Barack Obama about equipping the FSA with advanced weaponry to be this Sunni force. For one thing, the new Syrian army must not be under Alawite domination, albeit it must exclude no one either. These delicate details may not be discussed at the ministerial meeting in Vienna. The meeting that will test Iranian and Russian intentions in Syria, as Adel al-Jubeir said, will not conclude with declarations that amount to major shifts in Russian or Iranian positions. It will be a “process”, and processes require successive meetings.
German Foreign Minister deliberately reined in expectations of a breakthrough in the Vienna talks, while his French counterpart said France and its Arab allies will go to Vienna with a request for a specific timetable and mechanism for Assad’s departure. The problem is that the gap is wide between the Russian position, which together with Iran holds that the government of Bashar al-Assad is the legitimate government, and the Saudi and French position, which considers that Assad has lost legitimacy, along with Washington but only verbally and not in practice because of the Chemical weapons deal.
The other gap is the issue of the reference frame of the Syria talks. If the four powers, the U.S., Russia, Saudi, and Turkey, expand the circles of negotiations to include Iran, then on what basis? If the Geneva Communique, requiring the establishment of a transitional governing body with full powers, is no longer the reference frame for the talks, then what is? If the four powers stopped demanding Tehran to accept Geneva 1 before allowing it to attend the Vienna talks, then what pledge did they get in return? Most probably, Geneva was suspended as a reference frame in practice to ensure Iran sits at the table. This is another concession to the Russian-Iranian duo on Syria, but behind it, there must be undeclared understandings or deferred gains. To be sure, Russian-Gulf relations are growing positively. The Saudi King and the Russian leader continue talk, with the king likely to visit Moscow in the coming months.
Russian-Egyptian relations are also moving ahead, not only in defense cooperation, but also with regard to joint efforts to preserve the institutes of the Syrian state. This is while bearing in mind that Egypt is in contact with both the regime and opposition in Syria. In addition, a common denominator between Cairo and Moscow is their hatred for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Egypt’s joining of the Vienna talks alongside rival Turkey, and Saudi, Russia, the U.S., Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, has important implications. There is a full quorum, at least in this round. The Vienna understandings could bring a qualitatively new breakthrough in the Syrian issue. But it could end with disappointment, if one of the parties seriously misunderstands the others. What is at stake in Vienna, practically speaking, is not just Syria, but also Iraq in the context of the war on terror and regional-international arrangements. Yemen is also an important gauge of understandings or confrontations. As for Lebanon, it would present a good opportunity to prove good faith and build trust, which Saudi-Iranian, Gulf-Russian, and U.S.-Gulf relations desperately needs.

New Zealand’s Israel / Palestine initiative disappoints
Sharif Nashashibi/Al Arabiya/November 02/15
Days after New Zealand began its two-year stint as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council in January this year, the country’s then-representative Jim McLay criticized the Council for failing to show leadership over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For months, there were reports that New Zealand - which last had a Security Council seat 21 years ago - was planning to present a draft resolution, which it did last week. The wait was not worth it. Most worryingly, the draft calls for the Palestinians to stop pursuing Israel at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in return for a halt to settlement construction on occupied Palestinian territory. Peace is impossible without justice, particularly when the injustice has gone on as long as it has for the Palestinians - almost 70 years. Drafting resolutions that base objectivity on the illusion of an asymmetrical conflict - rather than one party suffering one of the greatest, most enduring injustices of our time - brings us no closer to ending it . New Zealand seems to think otherwise. This is ironic because it voted in favor of Palestine’s upgraded U.N. status in Nov. 2012, which allowed it to join the ICC. Indeed, joining the Court was the biggest prize of the upgraded status, and the reason for vociferous opposition from Israel and its allies.
“What’s objectionable is the attempts to undermine international justice, not Palestine’s decision to join” the ICC, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in April this year, at the time of Palestine’s accession to the Court. The draft resolution undermines international justice and - like the moribund, decades-long ‘peace process’ to which New Zealand wants both sides to return - regards international law as an obstacle to peace rather than its key. Even worse, what the resolution offers Palestine for turning its back on the ICC is insulting. Even if Israel was willing to implement a blanket freeze on settlement construction - which it has always refused to do, and would be even less likely under its current extremist government - this would not be an Israeli concession but a requirement under international law, which deems the settlements illegal because they are built on occupied territory.
The draft does not mention Israel actually withdrawing from existing settlements. These armed colonies deny a Palestinian state viability and territorial contiguity, are situated on its main water aquifers and most fertile land, and control around half of the occupied Palestinian territories. The draft’s call on both sides to avoid provocative acts, “end the violence, avoid incitement and protect civilians” represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict, as if it is between two sides of equal strength, grievance and responsibility. Israel’s occupation and colonization of Palestine, and the denial of its people’s basic rights, are a daily, relentless, flagrant provocation. To portray resistance to this as provocation is to expect Palestinians to lay down and accept their subjugation. The draft’s call for both sides not to question the “integrity or commitment of the other party or its leaders” beggars belief, since Israel has used negotiations as a fig leaf to entrench its occupation and colonization. It is particularly galling given that the current Israeli government is replete with members, from the prime minister down, who openly and categorically reject a Palestinian state.
What, then, is the point of the draft calling on both sides “to prepare to return to negotiations”? This will simply buy Israel more time to systematically wipe Palestine off the map, portray itself as eager for peace in the process, and blame the Palestinians when they do not meet its ever-increasing demands.
This is not conjecture - a quarter of a century of negotiations have left Palestinians with fewer rights, less land, and no hope of Israel acting in good faith. Yet Palestinians are expected to continue hitting their heads against the same brick wall. Israel’s rejection of the draft as “destructive” is an indication of how pointless it is to continue the charade of talks with a party that is only interested in negotiating the terms of Palestinian submission. The last time the Security Council adopted a resolution on the conflict was in 2009. That is a failing of the Council, and particularly of the United States, whose veto power is responsible for the Council’s inaction and Israel's subsequent impunity. However, drafting resolutions that base objectivity on the illusion of an asymmetrical conflict - rather than one party suffering one of the greatest, most enduring injustices of our time - brings us no closer to ending it. For all its desire to show leadership and break the impasse, New Zealand has simply regurgitated the same redundant formulae.

America's Least-Known Mideast Military Force
David Schenker/Politico/Washington Institute/November 02/15
A tragic plane crash should put a spotlight on the status of Washington's commitment to an important Sinai peacekeeping force.
This weekend, an Egyptian ISIL affiliate claimed responsibility for downing a Russian passenger jet over the Sinai Peninsula, killing all 224 aboard. Moscow and Cairo have denied a terrorist connection to the attack, claiming the airliner first experienced problems at 30,000 feet, an altitude beyond the capabilities of surface-to-air weapons systems possessed by the so-called "Province of Sinai." While this assessment of the local Sinai ISIL chapter's arsenal may be correct, there is little reason to be sanguine. Today, the Province of Sinai is deploying both MANPADS and advanced anti-tank weapons, and it's posing an increasingly lethal challenge to Egyptian security in the peninsula.
But the ISIL threat in the Sinai extends beyond Egyptian Government and tourist targets. On August 2, four American servicemen were wounded in a roadside bomb attack in Egypt. The soldiers were serving with the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) in the Sinai Peninsula, one of the most important and perhaps least well-known U.S. peacekeeping commitments. Since 1982, the United States has been contributing hundreds of soldiers and airmen to the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO), an organization tasked with monitoring the security provisions of the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty in the Sinai. In addition to ground operations, the MFO flies surveillance missions over the Sinai to determine whether Egypt's force deployments are consistent with its 1979 treaty commitments. This attack and the increasingly dangerous security environment in the Sinai in recent years have prompted the Obama administration to undertake a review of the MFO deployment and mission.
The MFO was originally conceived at the UN following the Camp David Accords. After China and Russia vetoed the mission in the Security Council, Washington, Egypt and Israel agreed to field the MFO outside the UN framework, determining the force's management and funding on their own. In accordance with Annex I, Article II of the treaty, the MFO was tasked with monitoring "Zone C," the roughly one-quarter of the Sinai that runs along the border with Israel. Since then, the MFO, with U.S.-backing, has served at times as a buffer, confidence-builder, mediator and marriage counselor to the parties.
The MFO has 1,667 military personnel supplied by twelve countries and 17 civilian officials. But the United States is the heart and soul of the organization. Between the Infantry Battalion Task Force, the logistics unit that provides aircraft and conducts the air operations, and other staff, the U.S. contributes nearly 700 personnel to the MFO. Washington also picks up nearly a third of the organization's $86 million annual budget.
Over the past 36 years, Israeli-Egyptian relations have had their ups and downs. During the Mubarak era, for example, Cairo routinely condemned Israeli military actions in the West Bank and Gaza. In 2003, Israel reportedly threatened to down an Egyptian UAV surveilling an Israeli air base. More recently, the yearlong tenure from 2012 to 2013 of Muslim Brotherhood president Mohammed Morsi -- whose organization pledged to cancel the peace treaty -- tested the relationship. Through it all, the MFO has been a steady and reassuring presence in the Peninsula, preserving the cold peace.
Today, at the official level at least, relations between Egypt and Israel have never been better. This beneficial development is largely attributable to the emergence of a persistent ISIL-backed insurgency in the Sinai. In recent years, as the Islamist rebellion has expanded, Israeli-Egyptian strategic cooperation vis-a-vis the militants has reached unprecedented levels. So much so that in April 2013, Israel reportedly targeted 5 Islamist militants from Sinai airspace with an armed UAV.
Paradoxically, while the mutual interest of containing ISIL in the Peninsula has driven Israel and Egypt together, the insurgency has threatened the continued presence of the MFO. Last July, the Obama administration, concerned about the safety of U.S. troops stationed in the Sinai, reportedly initiated a policy review of the MFO, with an eye toward withdrawing the contingent.
To be sure, even before the current deterioration of security, the MFO experienced casualties. In 2007, for example, an airplane with the MFO's fixed wing unit crashed in the Sinai, killing eight French and one Canadian soldier. During the course of its 33 years, however, the MFO has only periodically come under fire.
Lately, though, MFO troops have increasingly found themselves in harm's way. Two years ago in September, a group of Bedouin attacked, infiltrated and overran the MFO's North Camp, firing automatic weapons and tossing grenades, wounding four peacekeepers before a stand-down was negotiated. In August 2014, a member of the U.S. contingent was shot and wounded by an unknown gunman near the Camp. In June 2015, the MFO's airport adjacent to North Camp was shelled, and most recently in August, an ISIL IED wounded 6 MFO troops -- four Americans and two Fijians.
Although Cairo has deployed thousands of additional troops and heavy equipment -- including F-16 fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters -- to the Sinai, Egypt has been unable to contain the violence. More than 1,000 Egyptian soldiers and policemen have been killed in the Peninsula to date, including sixty-four soldiers on one day alone this past summer. Last year, Islamic militants downed an Egyptian military helicopter over the Sinai; this past July, they sunk a naval patrol vessel off the coast. In August 2013, these terrorists hit a ship traversing the Suez Canal with a rocket-propelled grenade.
Meanwhile, as the ISIL-led insurgency in Sinai grows, so does the threat to the MFO and its mission. Today, MFO patrols are escorted by Egyptian armor columns, and the organization has curtailed its air operations, and is limiting its postings of observers at remote locations.
Despite these limitations, U.S. forces remain critical. Not only would a U.S. departure lead invariably to the collapse of the MFO, it would confirm Washington's shrinking commitment to its regional allies and provide ISIL with a significant moral and operational victory at exactly the wrong time. Egypt and Israel would also oppose the decision, and likely cooperate to reverse it.
If the Obama administration resolved to reduce the U.S. footprint in the MFO, it wouldn't be the first time. In the 1990s, the Defense Department floated an initiative to withdraw the contingent, which was subsequently quashed by the State Department. More recently, in 2002 during the early days of the "Global War on Terrorism," George W. Bush's Pentagon sought to free up additional manpower by downsizing its then 865-soldier contingent to a symbolic contribution of just 27 troops. In August 2002, the Defense Department hosted a trilateral meeting to discuss the planned reduction. Egyptian and Israeli pushback was so severe that the U.S. force contingent was cut by less than 20 percent.
Notwithstanding the currently improved bilateral climate, both Israel and Egypt recognize the fragility of the relationship. To wit, in September 2011, Israel responded to a large cross-border terrorist attack from the Sinai by mistakenly killing five Egyptian solders on the frontier. In the aftermath of this incident, a mob stormed the Israeli Embassy in Cairo, trapping six Israeli diplomats in the safe-room. If not for a reinforced six-inch door, the envoys almost certainly would have been lynched, imperiling the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.
A six-inch door at the Israeli Embassy might have preserved the treaty three years ago, but even today, a significant number of Egyptians consider Israel to be their enemy. To be sure, the treaty is solid at the official level, yet thirty-six years on, it has not developed into a peace between the two peoples. Consider that in August, a lawsuit was filed in Egyptian court accusing an Egyptian-American graduate student who attended Tel Aviv University of "high treason" and demanding that his Egyptian citizenship be stripped.
Following the U.S. government policy review, this past September the Obama administration deployed an additional 75 soldiers to the Sinai MFO to bolster force protection capabilities. While this represented a good first step, more should be done -- including providing so-called armored MRAP vehicles for U.S. and other contingents of the MFO. At the same time, the Defense Department should consider modifying the MFO's current monitoring disposition to include employing more passive and standoff tools such as reconnaissance UAVs. Most importantly, Washington should also press Egypt to accept U.S. counterinsurgency training and adopt modern COIN tactics to help rollback the gains of ISIL in the Sinai.
With five failed Middle Eastern states and two more at risk, and with ISIL on the march, the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty stands as one of Washington's last remaining regional policy accomplishments. Given the tenuous nature of this peace, the continued U.S. commitment via its MFO presence to ensuring the endurance of Camp David is more critical than ever.
**David Schenker is the Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute.

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