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Bible Quotation For Today/They have received them and know in truth that I came from you; and they have believed that you sent me
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 17/01-08: "After Jesus had spoken these words, he looked up to heaven and said, ‘Father, the hour has come; glorify your Son so that the Son may glorify you, since you have given him authority over all people, to give eternal life to all whom you have given him. And this is eternal life, that they may know you, the only true God, and Jesus Christ whom you have sent. I glorified you on earth by finishing the work that you gave me to do. So now, Father, glorify me in your own presence with the glory that I had in your presence before the world existed. ‘I have made your name known to those whom you gave me from the world. They were yours, and you gave them to me, and they have kept your word. Now they know that everything you have given me is from you; for the words that you gave to me I have given to them, and they have received them and know in truth that I came from you; and they have believed that you sent me."

Bible Quotation For Today/I will remember their sins and their lawless deeds no more. Where there is forgiveness of these, there is no longer any offering for sin.
Letter to the Hebrews 10/11-18: "Every priest stands day after day at his service, offering again and again the same sacrifices that can never take away sins. But when Christ had offered for all time a single sacrifice for sins, ‘he sat down at the right hand of God’, and since then has been waiting ‘until his enemies would be made a footstool for his feet.’For by a single offering he has perfected for all time those who are sanctified. And the Holy Spirit also testifies to us, for after saying, ‘This is the covenant that I will make with them after those days, says the Lord: I will put my laws in their hearts, and I will write them on their minds’, he also adds, ‘I will remember their sins and their lawless deeds no more.’ Where there is forgiveness of these, there is no longer any offering for sin."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 01-02/15
Germany: "20 Million Muslims by 2020"/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/November 01/15
Will Iran Walk Away from Nuclear Deal/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/November 01/15
Israel is Avoiding the Abyss, For Now/Jonathan Spyer/The Australian/November 01/15
Slouching towards the abyss/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/November 01/15
Behind a politician’s lust for power/Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/November 01/15
Stop the Syria massacres first, then talk later/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/November 01/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on November 01-02/15
Paralyzed Lebanon Government Risks Losing Millions in Aid
Activists March 'Against Disease' as Arslan Says 'No Landfill without My Approval'
Report: Berri and Hizbullah to Handle Talks with Arslan on Costa Brava Landfill
Rahi Fears State is Close to 'Total Collapse'
Qahwaji Livid at Military Salaries Delay: Let them Find a Way
Lebanon army kills three militants near Syria border

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 01-02/15
Khamenei Says Fresh Elections Needed in Syria
Erdogan's AKP Wins Majority in Critical Turkey Vote
U.N. Peace Envoy in Damascus to Brief Govt. on Vienna Talks
Palestinian Killed after Trying to Stab Israeli Soldier
Divided Turkey holds crucial snap election
Thirteen migrants, including six children, drown off Greece
Exclusive: British FM says it’s ‘business as usual’ with Saudi Arabia
Mystery over cause of Egypt plane crash
Kurdish forces prepare for battle to retake Iraq’s Sinjar
Khamenei calls for Syrian elections to end crisis
Syrian rebels launch fresh offensive against ISIS
Palestinian killed in West Bank after stabbing attempt
Russia doubts ISIS claim that it shot down airliner
Turkish jets hit ISIS targets in Syria

Paralyzed Lebanon Government Risks Losing Millions in Aid
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 01/15/Lebanon's political stalemate has not only left uncollected garbage piling up in the streets, but now risks losing millions in international loans for key development projects because of a paralyzed parliament. To secure the funds, Lebanon's parliament is required to approve loan deals or pass legislation on which the money is conditioned. But the legislature, deeply divided over issues ranging from minor domestic disagreements to the conflict in neighboring Syria, has not met since May 2014. The World Bank warns that Lebanon could lose half a portfolio worth $1.1 billion (1 billion euros) if parliament fails to ratify loan agreements before December 31. Around half that money is for the Bisri Dam project in southern Lebanon, which is intended to provide 1.6 million people with water for drinking and irrigation. Legislative inaction has already led France to cancel 46.5 million euros for building schools and 70 million euros for the electricity sector, in a country where chronic power outages continue 25 years after the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. Another 70 million euros from France for a water purification project is also on the line because parliament has not ratified a water code that is a condition for the money. The World Bank has already annulled around $40 million in funds to the country this year.
A 'wake-up' call
"The institutional gridlock has led us to cancel a number of important projects for the country's economic development," World Bank regional director Ferid Belhaj told Agence France Presse. "In our discussions with Lebanese institutions, there's an element of 'wake-up'. The political aspect must be separated from the economic and development aspect because otherwise there could be serious consequences." Other World Bank projects worth around $500 million are already being implemented "but not at the speed or efficiency we'd hope for, and there is a risk they will not achieve their objectives," he added. Fragile Lebanon had already been weakened by a series of crises and episodes of violence after the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri and since Syria's conflict erupted next door in 2011. The war has exacerbated tensions between the main Western-backed political bloc led by Hariri's son, which supports Syria's opposition, and the Iran-backed Hezbollah-led bloc that backs Syria's regime. The conflict has also seen more than one million Syrian refugees pour into Lebanon, costing the economy around $7.5 billion, according to the World Bank. The country has not had legislative elections since 2009, with parliament meeting only to extend its own mandate twice. The cabinet has been so divided that it has failed more than two dozen times to elect a successor to president Michel Suleiman, whose mandate expired in May 2014. The deadlock has manifested itself most recently in a trash crisis created by the government's failure to respond to the closure of the country's largest landfill.
Risking the future
Politicians say they are aware that the money is on the line, and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri this week said he would convene a legislative session "as soon as possible."But the delays and the loss of funding for key projects in a country with crumbling infrastructure is a source of frustration for residents and donors alike. "Lebanon is a priority for France, and it is with reluctance that we have been forced to cancel these loans because we could not continue to delay them forever," a French diplomat in Lebanon told AFP. "We have other projects that are waiting and we hope that the approvals will come through so we will not be forced to cancel loans that would benefit all Lebanese," he added. Economist Violette Balaa warned that, in addition to losing loans and the projects they were intended to fund, Lebanon risks being gradually abandoned by international donors. "After several warnings, donors will no longer give us more grace periods," said Balaa, editor-in-chief of the Arab Economic News website. "Lebanon must preserve its credibility, or we risk harm at both the local and international level," she added. "Donors set aside money in their accounts and, if Lebanon doesn't use it, there are other countries that need it," she said.

Activists March 'Against Disease' as Arslan Says 'No Landfill without My Approval'
Naharnet/November 01/15/Civil society activists on Sunday staged what they dubbed a “March Against Disease” to raise the alarm over the health and environmental hazards that the trash disposal crisis poses with the coming of the rain season. Protesters marched from Sed el-Bauchrieh, where a huge “mountain of garbage” has formed, towards the site containing piles of trash on the banks of the Beirut River outside the capital. The Jdeideh-Bauchrieh municipal chief and members of the municipal council took part in the demo to denounce the piling up of garbage and to voice solidarity with the activists' demands. Demonstrators carried banners slamming the ruling class and demanding the release of funds that can enable municipalities to play a waste management role, amid strict security measures by the army and the Internal Security Forces. A protest organizer said Sed el-Bauchrieh was chosen as the march's starting point due to “the rivers of trash that were created by the rain last week.” Activists meanwhile distributed leaflets encouraging residents to start waste sorting at home. Meanwhile, Lebanese Democratic Party leader MP Talal Arslan announced that no garbage landfill could be set up in the Choueifat area without his “approval.”“Prime Minister (Tammam) Salam told me that no landfill will be set up in Choueifat without my approval,” he was quoted as saying by LBCI television and al-Jadeed TV. “No cabinet session has been scheduled until the moment,” Arslan added. Ministerial sources had told al-Mustaqbal daily in remarks published Sunday that Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah had vowed to Salam that they would mediate with Arslan to substitute the proposed Kfour landfill in the South with one in the area of Costa Brava in Khaldeh. Salam is expected to call for a cabinet session in light of the outcome of talks with Arslan to decide on the waste file. Lebanon has been suffering from a trash disposal crisis since July with the closure of the Naameh landfill. Politicians have failed to find an alternative to the landfill, resulting in the pile up of garbage on the streets of the country. There are fears the uncollected waste, coupled with the rain season, could spread diseases such as cholera among the population. Experts have urged Lebanon to focus on recycling more waste, and composting organic material, saying that would vastly reduce the amount of trash going to landfills.

Report: Berri and Hizbullah to Handle Talks with Arslan on Costa Brava Landfill
Naharnet/November 01/15/Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah party have vowed to Prime Minister Tammam Salam that they will handle the talks with MP Talal Arslan to substitute the Kfour landfill with that in the area of Costa Brava in Khaldeh after the latter expressed unwillingness to do so, unnamed ministerial sources told Al Mustaqbal daily on Sunday. The Premier was planning to call for a cabinet session on Monday to tackle the thorny trash crisis file, but Berri and Hizbullah asked him to pause the move for 24 hours pending their scheduled meeting with head of the Lebanese Democratic Party Arslan on Sunday, the paper added. For his part, Arslan who rejects setting a landfill in the said area, announced in a press conference on Saturday that a delegation by Berri and Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will visit him. The proposal to set up a landfill in the area of Khaldeh instead of the southern region of Kfour was suggested by Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah on Friday. They also suggested that the locations in Kfour and Costa Brava be used as landfills instead of the one chosen in Srar in the northern region of Akkar. Salam is expected to call for a cabinet convention in light of the outcome of talks with Arslan to decide on the waste file. Conflicting reports have emerged on whether officials had agreed on the contentious issue of landfills. Some said that an agreement has been reached on the Srar location in the North and Kfour area in the South, while others said that a new location in Khaldeh will be adopted instead. Disputes also remain over whether to set up a landfill in the Keserouan area. Reports on Friday spoke of the possibility of distributing the Keserouan trash between Srar and Kfour. Lebanon has been suffering from a trash disposal crisis since July with the closure of the Naameh landfill. Politicians have failed to find an alternative to the landfill, resulting in the pile up of garbage on the streets of the country.Heavy rain last week brought with it flooded streets coupled with waste, as experts warned of the health and environmental impact of the crisis.

Rahi Fears State is Close to 'Total Collapse'
Naharnet/November 01/15/Maronite Patriarch Beshara Boutros al-Rahi said on Sunday that the Lebanese state has touched the verge of collapse in light of the vacuum at the presidential post and the paralysis of the parliament and government. “The Lebanese state has reached a stage that threatens of total collapse because of those who either directly or indirectly were responsible for the vacuum at the top state post for the last year and six months,” said al-Rahi during Sunday mass in Bkirki. “They have disrupted the work of the parliament, paralyzed the cabinet, drowned the country in garbage, oppressed and displaced the people, withheld the salaries of the military, neglected the righteous demands of the demonstrators and their campaign against corruption and theft of public funds,” he concluded. Lebanon has been without a head of state since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May last year. The Baabda Palace vacuum has caused the parliament's paralysis and huge differences among cabinet members. The government assumed the responsibilities of the head of state in his absence but sharp differences have stopped it short of taking important decisions.

Qahwaji Livid at Military Salaries Delay: Let them Find a Way
Naharnet/November 01/15/Army chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji stressed that the delay in payment of salaries to the military must be “solved as soon as possible,” assuring that he will not stand idle, al Mustaqbal daily reported on Sunday. “We will not remain silent, we want the payrolls as soon as possible,” he told the daily. Qahwaji pointed out to the anger and disappointment spreading among ranks of the military. “Some military personnel have not been paid since the Al-Adha holiday and that is 45 days ago. They (government) have to pay, there are a million ways to pay, let them find one. It is not our problem,” said Qahwaji sharply. “We cannot stand and watch while the military get deprived of their salaries,” he added. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said last week that the cabinet must convene in order approve the payment of the salaries of public sector employees including the military, assuring that the matter is “not political but constitutional.” The military have not received their salaries for the month of October which drew the ire of the military. Lebanon has been without a head of state since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May last year. The Baabda Palace vacuum has caused the parliament's paralysis and huge differences among cabinet members. The government assumed the responsibilities of the head of state in his absence but sharp differences have stopped it short of taking important decisions.

Lebanon army kills three militants near Syria border
By Reuters, Beirut Saturday, 31 October 2015/Lebanon’s army on Saturday fired at a vehicle carrying Islamist militants, killing three of them and wounding two others in the north of the country near the Syrian border, a security source said. The source said it was unclear which group the militants belonged to. They were driving near the outskirts of the town of Arsal, the source said, without providing further details. Islamist groups including al Qaeda’s Nusra Front have a presence in western Syria, including near the border with Lebanon, and there are have been numerous incursions by Islamists reported in the porous border region. Syria’s four-year conflict has spilled over into its smaller neighbour, which is still rebuilding after its own 15-year civil war. There have been clashes inside Lebanon between gunmen loyal to opposing sides in the Syrian conflict, as well as strikes on the army and cross-border attacks by Syrian rebels. The army fought several days of deadly battles last year with insurgent groups including Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Nusra Front when they staged an incursion into Arsal.

Khamenei Says Fresh Elections Needed in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 01/15/Iran's supreme leader dismissed Sunday the prospect of foreign countries bartering a deal over Syria's future, saying a halt to fighting and fresh elections is the only solution. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also repeated his ban on direct talks with the United States about turmoil in the Middle East, saying U.S. objectives in the region were utterly at odds with Iranian policy. The comments, to Iran's ambassadors and other top diplomats, were Khamenei's first since his country joined on Friday international talks in Vienna on the four-year Syrian conflict. In a wide-ranging speech on foreign policy Khamenei said Syria's people must choose for themselves who their leader would be, rather than U.S. and other foreign powers deciding for them."The Americans seek to impose their own interests, not solve problems. They want to impose 60, 70 percent of their will in negotiations. So what's the point of negotiations?" he said, appearing to discount the value of the Vienna talks. Top diplomats from 17 countries, as well as the United Nations and the European Union, had gathered in Austria to narrow their divisions over Syria's war, which has killed more than 250,000. For the first time, the meeting brought together all the main outside players in the crisis, including Russia and Iran, key allies of the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The Syrian regime and the opposition were not represented. Iran and the U.S. held direct talks in the past two years leading to a deal on the Islamic republic's nuclear program but after the July 14 agreement Khamenei banned direct talks on regional issues. "There's no point in other countries getting together and deciding about a system of government and the head of that state," he said Sunday. "This is a dangerous innovation which no government in the world would accept being imposed on itself. The solution to Syria's problem is elections."
Taking aim at U.S.
Khamenei said the military and financial support given to rebels fighting Assad, principally from Gulf states and the U.S., must be stopped. This would allow an end to the war and ensure "Syrian people elect whomever they want in a safe and peaceful environment," he added, without mentioning Iran's support for Assad. Iran denies fighting alongside Syrian troops and militias but in recent weeks stepped up its deployment of military advisers. More than a dozen have been killed in the past fortnight. Khamenei also took aim at wider US policy in the Middle East. "Contrary to some people's views, America is the main part of the problem in the region, not part of the solution," citing US support for "the Zionist regime" in Israel. "These policies differ 180 degrees with the policies of the Islamic republic," also criticizing Saudi Arabia for its "double standards" in Yemen. "They have intervened in this country upon a request by a resigned and fugitive Yemeni president," Khamenei said. "But on Syria they are not prepared to stop supporting the armed opposition upon a request by the legal president (Assad) of this country."

Erdogan's AKP Wins Majority in Critical Turkey Vote
Turkey's long-dominant Justice and Development Party (AKP) scored a stunning electoral comeback on Sunday, regaining its parliamentary majority in a poll seen as pivotal for the future of the troubled country. The party founded by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won over 49 percent of the vote to secure 315 seats in the 550-member parliament with nearly all votes counted, easily enough to form a government on its own. "Today is a day of victory," a beaming Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told a crowd of jubilant supporters in his hometown. "The victory belongs to the people." He appealed for unity in the country, destabilized by renewed Kurdish violence and bloody jihadist attacks and facing escalating concerns about the faltering economy and what critics say is Erdogan's authoritarian rule. "Today there are no losers but winners," he said. "We are coming to rebuild a new Turkey along with each and every citizen." The outcome was a shock to many as opinion polls had predicted a replay of the June election when the AKP won only 40 percent of the vote and lost its majority for the first time in 13 years. It is however a huge personal victory for 61-year-old Erdogan, Turkey's divisive strongman who may now be able to secure enough support for his controversial ambitions to expand his role into a powerful U.S.-style executive presidency.
Kurdish conflict a key challenge
Analysts said it appeared voters had turned away from nationalist and Kurdish parties. "Erdogan rode the wave of violence back to power," said Aykan Erdemir of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a former Turkish opposition MP. Underscoring one of the key challenges ahead for a new AKP administration -- the state of the Kurdish peace process -- clashes erupted briefly between police and protesters in the main Kurdish city of Diyarbakir. During the election campaign, Erdogan declared that only he and his loyal Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu could guarantee security, criss-crossing the country with the message: "It's me or chaos." A report by the Brookings Institution think-tank had warned that whatever the outcome, "the challenges facing Turkey are growing by the day." It highlighted the Kurdish crisis along with the parlous state of the economy and the fallout from the conflict in neighboring Syria as the most urgent issues. The political landscape has changed dramatically in Turkey since June, with the country even more divided along ethnic and sectarian lines.
HDP scrapes in
Many Turks are fearful of a return to all-out war with outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels after fresh violence shattered a 2013 truce in July, just a month after a pro-Kurdish party won seats for the first time and denied Erdogan's AKP a majority. The threat of further jihadist violence had overshadowed the poll after a string of attacks blamed on the Islamic State group, including twin suicide bombings on an Ankara peace rally last month that killed 102 people -- the bloodiest in Turkey's modern history. This time round, the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), led by charismatic lawyer Selahattin Demirtas, lost support but appeared to have scraped over the 10-percent threshold to stay in parliament. Demirtas said it was not a "fair election" after his party halted campaigning in the wake of the IS attacks that targeted pro-Kurdish activists. "But it's still a big victory, we have lost one million votes but we have stood tall against this policy of massacres and fascism," he said. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) scored about 25 percent of the vote, similar to its June result. Support for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) fell to around 11 percent, with commentators suggesting its voters shifted to the AKP. The IS attacks have drawn Turkey even further into the quagmire in neighboring Syria as it struggled with the burden of more than two million refugees and found itself at odds with its NATO allies over the conflict. After long supporting rebels fighting the Damascus regime, Ankara was cajoled into joining the U.S.-led coalition against the IS group and launched its own "war on terrorism" targeting the jihadists as well as PKK fighters and even U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds.
Turkey's 'big master'
Erdogan, dubbed the "big master" or "Sultan" who has dominated Turkey's political scene for more than a decade, is revered and reviled in equal measure. He was hailed in the West for creating what was once regarded as a model Muslim democracy but is now accused of blatantly cracking down on opponents and critical media. Opponents fear that if he succeeds in expanding his powers, it would mean fewer checks and balances in a country that has long aspired to join the EU. A string of high-profile raids against media groups deemed hostile to Erdogan and the jailing of critical journalists have set alarm bells ringing about basic freedoms. Turkey's economy is also in trouble, with growth slowing sharply from the dizzy heights of five years ago, unemployment rising and the Turkish lira plunging more than 25 percent in value this year. "I'm very sorry but the results mean that the people are comfortable with the current situation," said 22-year-old law student Sevim. "People get the governments they deserve. So we got what we deserve."

U.N. Peace Envoy in Damascus to Brief Govt. on Vienna Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 01/15/U.N. peace envoy Staffan de Mistura met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem on Sunday in Damascus to discuss ongoing international talks on Syria's four-year war, state media said. The diplomat presented Muallem with a "detailed report" of talks between global powers as well as the United Nations and the European Union last week in Vienna, state news agency SANA reported.Syria's state television said Muallem had "expressed to... de Mistura the importance of numerous points" in the statement released at the end of the Vienna talks. But the Syrian foreign minister said he was "surprised that the statement did not include a commitment by known backers of terrorism" to stop supporting extremist groups, SANA reported. Representatives from the U.N. and EU and top diplomats from 17 countries gathered on Friday in Vienna to narrow their divisions over the war which has killed more than 250,000 people. For the first time, the meeting brought together all the main outside players in the crisis, including Russia and Iran, key allies of the government of President Bashar Assad. But the Syrian government and the opposition were not represented. Participants at the talks agreed to ask the United Nations to broker a peace deal between the regime and opposition to clear the way for a new constitution and U.N.-supervised elections. But divisions remained on the fate of Assad, with Russia and Iran resisting Western and Saudi pressure to force the Syrian president from power. De Mistura was expected to leave Damascus on Monday, the U.N. official said, declining to provide further details on the diplomat's visit. He last visited Damascus in September to discuss his proposal for joint working committees to discuss counterterrorism, political and legal issues, reconstruction, and safety and protection.

Palestinian Killed after Trying to Stab Israeli Soldier
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 01/15/A Palestinian tried to stab an Israeli soldier and was shot dead north of Hebron in the occupied West Bank on Sunday, the Israeli army said. "A Palestinian attempted to stab a soldier during a violent riot in Beit Einun, Hebron," an army statement said.
"The soldiers at the scene responded to the immediate threat and shot the attacker, resulting in his death."The incident is the latest in a wave of violence that has seen nine Israelis, 67 Palestinians and an Arab Israeli killed since the beginning of October, raising fears of a new Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation. While the attacks were initially focused in Jerusalem, the epicenter has recently shifted to Hebron, the West Bank's largest city, where there have been daily protests and attacks on Israeli soldiers. The city, home to a shrine known to Jews as the Cave of the Patriarchs and to Muslims as the Ibrahimi Mosque, has 200,000 Palestinian residents. Around 500 Israeli settlers live in the center, protected by an army-patrolled buffer zone.

Divided Turkey holds crucial snap election
By Ayla Jean Yackley and Daren Butler, Reuters Sunday, 1 November 2015
President Tayyip Erdogan's longtime grip on power was put to a critical test on Sunday in elections likely to determine the trajectory of a polarized country hit by mounting internal bloodshed and economic worries.
The poll the second in five months, after the AK Party founded by Erdogan lost in June the single-party governing majority it had enjoyed since first taking power in 2002. voting ended at 1500 BST and initial results were expected by 1900 BST. Since June, a ceasefire with Kurdish militants has collapsed, the war in neighboring Syria has worsened and Turkey - a NATO member state - has been buffeted by two Islamic State-linked suicide bomb attacks that killed more than 130 people. Investors and Western allies hope the vote will help restore stability as well as confidence in the more than $800 billion (518 billion pound) Turkish economy, allowing Ankara to play a more effective role in stemming a flood of refugees from neighboring wars via Turkey into Europe and helping in the battle against ISIS militants.
This time, there were few of the flags, posters and campaign buses that thronged the streets in the build-up to June's vote. But Erdogan framed this sombre re-run as a pivotal opportunity for Turkey to return to single-party AKP rule after months of political uncertainty. "It is obvious in today's election how beneficial stability is for our nation and today our citizens will make their choice based on this," Erdogan told reporters after voting in his home district of Camlica on the Asian side of Istanbul. Flanked by his wife in a gold-coloured headscarf, he voted under tight security with snipers watching from nearby rooftops. Voters were sharply divided in their views on a return to single-party rule or the prospect of a coalition. "The little welfare, better living conditions, bigger house and fancier appliances we have, we all owe it to AK Party and Erdogan," said Nurcan Gunduz, 24, at the airport in Ankara. "Look at the state of the country after the June 7 election results and we didn't even have a coalition government. I can't imagine how worse it would be if we did have it." But Yasar, a 62-year-old retired labourer now working as a shoeshine man outside a mosque in the conservative Istanbul district of Uskudar, said he switched his vote to the main opposition CHP in hopes of a coalition. "I have given up on the AKP. The honest party is the CHP. The country needs to heal its wounds and a coalition is the best way."
Some Western allies, foreign investors and Turks see an AKP coalition with the CHP as the best hope of easing sharp divisions in the EU-candidate nation, and say it could keep Erdogan's authoritarian instincts in check.
The election was prompted by the AKP's inability to find a junior coalition partner after the June outcome. Erdogan's critics said it represented a gamble by the combative leader to win back enough support so the party can eventually change the constitution and give him greater presidential powers.
Many polls indicated that while support for the centre-right, Islamist-rooted AKP may have inched up, the result was unlikely to be dramatically different to June, when it took 40.9 percent of the vote. However, a survey released on Thursday suggested there had been a late surge in backing for the AKP and that it could take as much as 47.2 percent, comfortably enough to secure more than half of the 550-seat parliament. Whatever the outcome, deep splits in Turkey - between pious conservatives who champion Erdogan as a hero of the working class, and Western-facing secularists suspicious of his authoritarianism and Islamist ideals - is likely to remain. "The political uncertainty, growing social divisions and insecurity which has characterised the period between the two elections seems set to continue," Bulent Aliriza, director of the Turkey Project at the Washington-based think-tank CSIS, said in a note on Friday. If the AKP fails again to secure an absolute majority, it may be forced back to the negotiating table with either the main secularist CHP opposition or the nationalist MHP. The pro-Kurdish HDP, which entered parliament as a party for the first time in June, scaled back its election campaign after its supporters were targeted in the Ankara suicide bomb attack that killed more than 100 people. "What all Turkey wants and needs more than anything is peace and calm," HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas said after voting in on Sunday. "I hope good election results will give solace to the suffering families of those who gave their lives for peace, freedom and democracy."Violence between security forces and Kurdish militants has beset the mainly Kurdish southeast since a ceasefire unraveled in July but the region was peaceful on Sunday. Voters in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir turned out in droves, queuing up in the shadow of armored police vehicles to cast ballots against what many said was state intimidation. AKP officials were hoping the turbulence of recent months will steer voters who remember the fragile coalition governments of the 1990s back to the AKP, and were betting that a recent crackdown on the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) will claw back nationalist votes.

Thirteen migrants, including six children, drown off Greece
AFP, Athens Sunday, 1 November 2015/At least 13 migrants, six of them children, drowned as two boats making the hazardous crossing from Turkey capsized in the Aegean Sea off Greece on Sunday, the coastguard said. The first tragedy occurred off the island of Samos when a boat overturned just 20 meters from shore. Ten bodies -- including six children, four of them babies -- were found in the vessel’s cabin while that of a girl was washed up on the island, where dozens of refugees have perished trying to reach Europe in recent days. Two others were still missing with coastguards saying 15 were plucked from the water. A boat from the European border agency Frontex also recovered two bodies near the island of Farmakonnisi, near Samos, the coastguard said.Frontex also rescued three others, who said their boat was carrying 15 people when it sank in Turkish waters. Greek authorities and the Turkish coastguard “continue to search the zone to find the migrants who disappeared in the sinking, which probably took place off the Turkish coast,” a representative of the Greek coastguard’s press office told AFP. The new sinkings add to a string of migrant boat tragedies since Monday off the Greek islands of Lesbos, Kalymnos and Rhodes in which more than 60 people have drowned, at least 28 of them children. On Friday alone 22 people, including 17 children, lost their lives trying to cross to the eastern Aegean islands from Turkey, to which more than two million Syrian refugees have fled. That followed another black day on Wednesday when 24 migrants -- 11 of them children -- died in five shipwrecks off Lesbos, Samos and Agathonisi. With the arrival of rough winter weather, and fears that Europe is about to close its doors to refugees, more than 80 people -- most of them children -- have drowned trying to reach Greece in October, according to an AFP count. Since the beginning of the year, 580,125 migrants have landed on Greece’s shores, according to the UN refugee agency UNHCR, with a total of 723,221 crossing the Mediterranean to Europe. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said Friday that the drownings were a “humanitarian tragedy” and a “shame” for Europe. He is to travel to Lesbos this week with the president of the European parliament, Martin Schultz, his office said.

Exclusive: British FM says it’s ‘business as usual’ with Saudi Arabia
By Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya News – Manama Sunday, 1 November 2015/British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond has said his country’s working relationship with Saudi Arabia is deep rooted and strong, despite recent media reports of tension between Riyadh and London. In an exclusive interview with Al Arabiya News at the 11th annual International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)’s Manama Dialogue, which concludes today in the Bahraini capital, Hammond described the status of British-Saudi relations as “business as usual.” The United Kingdom has recently withdrawn a £5.9 mln prisons contract that would have provided a "training needs analysis" for Saudi prison service staff. Also in recent weeks, observers have noticed intensified critical coverage of Saudi Arabia by a number of British media outlets, in which some pundits had repeatedly called for further cancelations of business contracts and a revision of the overall relationship between the two countries. In response, Prince Mohammad bin Nawaf – the Saudi Ambassador to the United Kingdom - wrote a scathing op-ed published in The Daily Telegraph warning of an “alarming change” in Britain's attitude towards Saudi Arabia after what he described as “breaches in mutual respect.”However, Mr. Hammond had spent some time in Riyadh last week where he met with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, along with the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. He also held lengthy discussions with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, first during the Syria peace talks in Vienna and then again yesterday at the Manama Dialogue conference. During those meetings, Mr. Hammond said he sought reassurances from Saudi Arabia that “he wasn’t missing anything,” and that he received reassurances that the relationship was “excellent” and that “there was no problem at all.”“I wouldn’t have had a 45-minute audience with the king otherwise,” the British FM told Al Arabiya News. British FM Phillip Hammond speaking to Al Arabiya News (English) Editor-in-Chief Faisal J. Abbas (Photo by Ismaeel Naar) As for the recently cancelled prison training deal, Hammond explained that Justice Secretary Michael Gove had made a decision not to continue the process – because he did not want to divert resources from his department to overseas work. “The new Justice Secretary wanted to concentrate on reforms of prisons in the UK, where we actually have a big problem including the one of radicalization by extremists. “It is no secret that I and others argued that even though this wasn’t in accordance with his (Gove’s) departmental agenda, we would have preferred for the contract with Saudi Arabia to have been entered into as a sign of good faith. “We didn’t win that argument and we pulled out of the contract. It is an irritation to our Saudi partners and I understand that as foreign minister,” he added. We support each other in security, we work together on cyber, counter-terrorism, defense collaboration, we support each other’s security, supported the Saudi-led coalition in its actions in defense of the Yemeni government. However, Hammond emphasized that the British-Saudi relationship is “deep rooted and broad-ranging” adding that such a relation will “not be brought down by one small contract that we decided we couldn’t go ahead with.” “It is business as usual, and the reason we do business together (with Saudi Arabia) is because it’s in our mutual best interest. We support each other in security, we work together on cyber, counter-terrorism, defense collaboration, we support each other’s security, supported the Saudi-led coalition in its actions in defense of the Yemeni government,’ he added.
Iran deal
During his speech at the Manama Dialogue, Mr. Hammond reiterated his country’s commitment to ensuring Gulf security, and his government’s determination to combat violent extremism (CVE) at home, arguing that there should be no tolerance for intolerance. This prompted a question on whether or not the UK’s commitment extends to countries that support terrorism, specifically Iran which has long been criticized for nurturing state-funded groups such as Assaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon (in addition to the atrocities committed by both these terrorist entities, they have both previously been responsible for either the killing or kidnapping of British citizens), as well as backing the Houthis in Yemen (where the UK supports the Saudi coalition to restore the legitimate government of President Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi). If Iran continues to support terrorism, then it’s open to the states of the United Nations to take separate actions. Earlier this year, the United Kingdom – as part of the P5+1 bloc – signed a deal with Iran to curb Tehran nuclear weapon ambitions in exchange for the lifting of the long-imposed international economic sanctions.Several aspects of the nuclear deal had irked Saudi Arabia and other long-term British allies in the region, as it raises concerns that Tehran (which according to a recent U.S. government report, already spends between $14 bln and $30 bln annually on supporting regional terrorist activities) will use the newly injected cash into its economy to cause further upheaval and turmoil in the region. Last September, Britain’s second most powerful man, George Osborne – the Chancellor of the Exchequer – announced that he would personally “love to lead” a UK trade delegation to Iran next year. This came shortly after Tehran reopened its embassy in London. Recent reports have also estimated that nearly $1 bln will flow into Iran in the first year after sanctions are lifted. For his part, Hammond explained that the CVE program is about vulnerable individuals and is focused on internal issues within his country. However, he acknowledges that there is an issue with Iran’s regional conduct and that this is unlikely to change in the short-term. “We know that Iran’s behavior in the region continues to be challenging and we hope that, over time as Iran opens up to the world with sanctions coming off, we will start to see a different behavior. But it’s not going to happen overnight, it’s going to take time,” Hammond said. On what specific measures could be taken to avoid any future misdirection of Iranian funds to unfavorable non-state actors in the region, Hammond said:“If Iran continues to support terrorism, then it’s open to the states of the United Nations to take separate actions about that, but that is different from the actions we took over Iran’s illegal nuclear program.”

Mystery over cause of Egypt plane crash
By Al Arabiya with Agencies Sunday, 1 November 2015/Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi Sunday urged people to wait for the outcome of an investigation to determine the exact reason a Russian airliner crashed, killing all 224 people on board, including 25 children. "In such cases, leave it to specialists to determine the cause of the plane crash because it is a subject of an extensive and complicated technical study," state news agency MENA quoted Sisi as telling a gathering of army officers. On Saturday, a Russian passenger airliner crashed in a remote mountainous part of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula 23 minutes after taking off from a popular Red Sea resort. The cause of the crash was not known, but two major European airlines announced they would stop flying over the area for safety reasons after a local affiliate of ISIS claimed it "brought down" the aircraft. Russia's transport minister dismissed that claim as not credible. A Reuters reporter at the civil aviation ministry said Egyptian analysts have begun examining the contents of two black boxes recovered from the Russian airliner, and said it could take days to retrieve the data. Egypt's Prime Minister Sherif Ismail (2nd L) and Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou look at the remains of a Russian airliner which crashed in central Sinai. (Reuters). Almost everyone on board the Airbus-A321-200 operated by the Moscow-based Metrojet airline was Russian; Ukraine said four of its citizens were passengers. Russian officials did not give a specific breakdown of the 217 passengers' ages and genders, but said 25 were children. There were seven crew members. A civil aviation ministry statement said the plane's wreckage was found in the Hassana area some 70 kilometers south of the city of el-Arish, in the general area of northern Sinai where Egyptian security forces have for years battled local Islamic militants who in recent months claimed allegiance to ISIS. The ministry said the plane took off from the resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh shortly before 6 a.m. for St. Petersburg in Russia and disappeared from radar screens 23 minutes after takeoff. Egyptian Prime Minister Sherif Ismail toured the crash site and later told a Cairo news conference that 129 bodies had been recovered. Photos from the site released by his office showed the badly damaged sky blue tail of the aircraft, with the Metrojet logo still visible. In the background, heaps of smoldering debris dotted the barren terrain. Relatives of victims of a Russian airliner which crashed in Egypt, mourns at a hotel near Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg, Russia, October 31, 2015. (Reuters). One photo showed a member of the search team holding the flight recorder, or black box, which Ismail said would be scrutinized as investigators try to determine what caused the crash. Russian investigators were expected to arrive in Egypt on Sunday. Natalya Trukhacheva, identified as the wife of co-pilot Sergei Trukachev, said in an interview with Russian state-controlled NTV that her husband had complained about the plane's condition. She said a daughter "called him up before he flew out. He complained before the flight that the technical condition of the aircraft left much to be desired." Clothes are pictured on the ground at the site where a Russian airliner crashed in central Sinai near El Arish city. (Reuters) One Egyptian official, Ayman al-Muqadem of the government's Aviation Incidents Committee, said that before the plane lost contact with air traffic controllers, the pilot had radioed and said the aircraft was experiencing technical problems and that he intended to try and land at the nearest airport. It was impossible to independently confirm whether technical problems were to blame, and no other Egyptian official repeated the claim on Saturday. In a statement on its website, Metrojet said the A321-200 aircraft was in good shape and that the pilot was experienced. It identified the captain as Valery Nemov and said he had 12,000 hours of flying experience, including 3,860 in A321s. Police open the way for ambulances carrying the bodies of passengers of a Russian airliner which crashed in Sinai, into a morgue in Cairo. (Reuters). Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov said officials from Moscow and Cairo were in touch over the incident. The Egyptian officials, he said, had not confirmed the claim by ISIS militants who said they "brought down a Russian plane over Sinai state with more than 220 Russian crusaders on board." The militant group did not provide any evidence to back up its claim. "Based on our contacts with the Egyptian side, the information that the airplane was shot down must not be considered reliable," Sokolov said, according to a report by the Interfax news agency. An English-language statement issued by the office of the Egyptian president spoke of Russian leader Vladimir Putin commending the efforts made by authorities in Egypt "to uncover the circumstances surrounding the incident."Militants in northern Sinai have not to date shot down commercial airliners or fighter jets. There have been media reports that they have acquired Russian shoulder-fired, anti-aircraft missiles. But these types of missiles can only be effective against low-flying aircraft or helicopters. The Russian airliner was cruising at 31,000 feet when it lost contact with air traffic controllers, according to Egyptian aviation officials.
In January 2014, Sinai-based militants claimed to have shot down a military helicopter; Egyptian officials at the time acknowledged the helicopter had crashed, but gave no reason. But two major European airlines - Germany's Lufthansa and Air France - were not taking any chances. Both announced Saturday they would immediately stop flying over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula for safety reasons until the cause of the crash was determined. Their aircraft would take alternate routes to reach destinations in the region. pokeswomen for the airlines spoke anonymously in line with their respective companies' regulations. Egypt's foreign minister, Sameh Shukri, warned "foreign" countries that he did not identify against taking measures that reflect speculations on the cause of the crash. "That will impact the Egyptian economy and lead to damages. These nations must consider this as well as their relations with Egypt," he said. Friends and relatives of the crash victims were gathering Saturday at a hotel near St. Petersburg's Pulkovo airport. Psychologists were meeting with them in a large conference room off the lobby and police kept journalists away. Some left the room occasionally, looking drawn with tear-stained faces. Yulia Zaitseva was one of them. She said her friends, newlyweds Elena Rodina and Alexander Krotov, were on the flight. Both were 33. Zaitseva said Rodina, her friend for 20 years, "really wanted to go to Egypt, though I told her, 'Why the hell do you want to go to Egypt?'" "She was a very good friend who was ready to give everything to other people. To lose such a friend is like having your hand cut off," Zaitseva said, adding that Rodina's parents feel "like their lives are over."Russian airlines became infamous for poor safety in the early years following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, which caused severe financial troubles and regulatory disorder. Although accidents have diminished in recent years, crashes persist, many of them blamed on human error. According to Russian news agencies, the flight was chartered by the St. Petersburg-based Brisco tour company. The plane was made in 1997 and has since 2012 been operated by Metrojet. Officers from Russia's top investigative body raided the offices of Metrojet and Brisco on Saturday, searching the premises and questioning employees. Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin said agents also took samples of fuel from the airport in the Russian city of Samara where the plane stopped Friday before heading to Sharm el-Sheikh, where it had overnighted. Roughly three million Russian tourists, or nearly a third of all visitors in 2014, come to Egypt every year, mostly to Red Sea resorts in Sinai or in mainland Egypt. "It is too premature to detect the impact this will have on tourism. We need to know what happened first," Tourism Ministry spokeswoman Rasha Azazi told The Associated Press. There was no sign of anything unusual at Sharm el-Sheikh's airport just hours after news of the disaster broke. Hundreds of vacationers, mostly from Europe and the Middle East, were arriving and departing. Flights in the afternoon were leaving at the rate of four to five per hour, with lines for international check-in spilling out the main gates. Pavel Moroz, a 30-year-old engineer from Moscow, arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh on Saturday afternoon on a Metrojet flight. He plans to stay for a week to take a scuba diving course.
"We heard the news a few hours before leaving and thought for a bit about canceling our trip, but then decided to go anyway and everything was fine," he said as he left the airport.

Kurdish forces prepare for battle to retake Iraq’s Sinjar
By Isabel Coles Reuters - Erbil, Iraq Sunday, 1 November 2015/Kurdish forces are massing in northwest Iraq for an offensive to retake the town of Sinjar from Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants who overran it more than a year ago, killing and enslaving thousands of its Yazidi residents and triggering U.S.-led air strikes. Sinjar is a symbolic and strategic prize sitting astride the main highway linking the cities of Mosul and Raqqa – ISIS’s bastions in Iraq and Syria. In December 2014, Kurdish forces drove ISIS from north of Sinjar mountain, a craggy strip some 60 kilometers long, but the radical Sunni insurgents maintain control of the southern side where the town is located. Villagers along a main road to the mountain reported seeing dozens of military transport vehicles packed with Kurdish peshmerga fighters pass in recent days. Preparations for the offensive have been complicated by rivalry between various Kurdish and Yazidi forces in Sinjar. Peshmerga officials declined to comment on the operation, but a Kurdish security source said it would begin once the weather improved and intelligence-gathering had been completed. The challenge, he said, would be to defend the town after it is re-captured because the offensive will open up new fronts with the militants, who have declared a medieval-style caliphate spanning parts of Iraq and Syria. The U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State has carried out 57 air strikes in Sinjar over the past two weeks in support of the peshmerga, apparently coordinated with the planned offensive. Authorizing the first strikes against the group in Aug. 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama cited a duty to prevent a genocide of Yazidis by Islamic State, which considers them devil-worshippers.
Rivalries
The peshmerga in Sinjar are mainly affiliated with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which is accused of seeking to monopolize power by other groups arrayed against ISIS. Many Yazidis lost faith in the KDP when its forces failed to protect them from ISIS militants who attacked Sinjar in August 2014 and systematically slaughtered, enslaved and raped thousands of them. A Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) came to the rescue, evacuating thousands of Yazidis stranded on Sinjar mountain and establishing a permanent base there. “We have been ready (to attack Sinjar town) for one year, but political struggles prevented it,” said the commander of the PKK’s military wing in Sinjar. “The KDP is working with the Americans and they didn’t allow us to go in.” The PKK has trained a Yazidi militia in Sinjar, while tribal groups operate independently. Some Yazidis have also joined the peshmerga. The Sinjar offensive is being personally overseen by KDP leader Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan region. Most Yazidis have been displaced to camps in the Kurdistan region; several thousand remain in ISIS captivity. Saeed Hassan Saeed, a leader of the PKK-affiliated Yazidi militia, said hundreds of men were heading to Sinjar from the camps to take part in the offensive. Backed by U.S. air strikes, the peshmerga have regained most of the ground they consider historically Kurdish. Sinjar is part of the disputed territories to which both the Iraqi federal government and regional Kurdish authorities lay claim.
To counter the KDP, some of the other Sinjar factions have sought funds and weapons from Baghdad.

Khamenei calls for Syrian elections to end crisis
Reuters, AFP Sunday, 1 November 2015/Iran’s top authority said elections should be held in Syria to end the civil war there and criticized foreign powers that arm and fund Syrian opposition fighters, state television reported on Sunday. “The solution to the Syrian question is elections, and for this it is necessary to stop military and financial aid to the opposition,” several state media outlets quoted Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying. He added that U.S. objectives in the Middle East were the opposite of Iran’s and negotiating with Washington on regional issues was meaningless. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said on Saturday he was “encouraged” by talks in Vienna bringing together the main outside players in the four-year-old Syria crisis for the first time. “I am encouraged that the participants have reached a mutual understanding on a number of key issues,” Ban told a press briefing in Geneva after meeting the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Peter Maurer. Top diplomats from 17 countries, including Iran, as well as the United Nations and the European Union, attended the unprecedented talks on Friday, though the Syrian regime and the opposition were not represented. They sought common ground over a conflict that has claimed a quarter of a million lives and triggered an exodus of refugees to Europe. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said they had agreed that Syria must emerge from the conflict as a unified secular state. However, he and Lavrov disagreed over whether President Bashar al-Assad should step down immediately. The West and Gulf monarchies led by Saudi Arabia want Assad to step down, but Russia and Iran insist he has a right to play a role in an eventual transition towards a mooted unity government and later elections.
Another round of talks will be held in two weeks. Also Saturday, Ban and the ICRC’s Maurer issued a joint statement appealing for urgent action to address growing instability and human suffering around the world and to enforce international humanitarian law. “Rarely before have we witnessed so many people on the move, so much instability, so much suffering,” Maurer said. The statement said conflicts and violence had forced 60 million people from their homes –- the highest figure since World War II. Ban said in the statement: “In the face of blatant inhumanity, the world has responded with disturbing paralysis... The world must reaffirm its humanity and uphold its commitments under international humanitarian law.”

Syrian rebels launch fresh offensive against ISIS
By Reuters, Beirut Sunday, 1 November 2015/A newly formed U.S.-backed Syrian rebel alliance on Saturday launched an offensive against ISIS in the northeast province of Hasaka, a day after the United States said it would send special forces to advise insurgents fighting the militants. It was the first declared operation by the Democratic Forces of Syria, which joins together a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia and several Syrian Arab rebel groups, since it announced its formation earlier this month. World powers and regional rivals are convening in Vienna to seek a solution to the four-year conflict in Syria that has escalated since Russia intervened a month ago with an intense air campaign. Fighting in Hasaka had begun after midnight, a spokesman for the alliance said. A group monitoring the war reported fighting and coalition air strikes in the area. A video posted earlier on Youtube announced the offensive in southern Hasaka, and showed several dozen men in fatigues standing outdoors with yellow flags and banners carrying the name of the Democratic Forces of Syria in Arabic and Kurdish. The campaign would “continue until all occupied areas in Hasaka are freed from Daesh,” a spokesman for the alliance’s general command said in the video, using an Arabic name for ISIS. He urged residents to stay away from ISIS-controlled areas of Hasaka. Another spokesman later said alliance forces had already attacked ISIS fighters. “The battle began after midnight,” Talal Salu told Reuters via internet messaging service. “They were flanked by our forces... (who) thwarted a counter attack.”
UNITED STATES’ SUPPORT
The United States’ decision to station ground troops in Syria comes after it dropped ammunition to rebel groups in northern Syria several weeks ago.Washington’s strategy in Syria has shifted from trying to train fighters outside the country to supplying groups headed by U.S.-vetted commanders.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors developments on the ground, said fighting was raging on Saturday near al Hawl, a town close to the Iraqi border, accompanied by coalition air strikes. Hasaka province borders Iraq and territory there that is a crucial stronghold for ISIS. One member of alliance, the Kurdish YPG has to date proved Washington’s most effective partner on the ground against ISIS in Syria. It had pushed towards the border in previous fighting this year. The Raqqa Revolutionaries Front, one of the Arab groups in the alliance, on Thursday declared an imminent offensive against ISIS in its Syrian stronghold of Raqqa province, which borders Hasaka.

Palestinian killed in West Bank after stabbing attempt
AFP, Occupied Jerusalem Sunday, 1 November 2015/Palestinian tried to stab an Israeli soldier and was shot dead north of Hebron in the occupied West Bank on Sunday, the Israeli army said. “A Palestinian attempted to stab a soldier during a violent riot in Beit Einun, Hebron,” an army statement said.
“The soldiers at the scene responded to the immediate threat and shot the attacker, resulting in his death.”The incident is the latest in a wave of violence that has seen nine Israelis, 67 Palestinians and an Arab Israeli killed since the beginning of October, raising questions on a new Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation. While the attacks were initially focused in Jerusalem, the epicentre has recently shifted to Hebron, the West Bank's largest city, where there have been daily protests and attacks on Israeli soldiers. Israel denies link to ‘tear gas death’ of Palestinian baby. On Saturday, Israel’s military rejected Saturday any link between its use of tear gas during West Bank clashes and the death of an eight-month-old boy, after the Palestinian health ministry said he was asphyxiated. On Friday, the Palestinian ministry said Ramadan Thawabteh was asphyxiated in his Bethlehem home by tear gas fired by Israeli soldiers during clashes with Palestinian stone throwers. The mother of eight-month-old Palestinian baby Ramadan Thawabtah, who the health ministry said died after inhaling tear gas fired by Israeli troops on Friday. (Reuters). Following both medical and operational investigations it was concluded that there is no correlation of IDF (Israeli army) activity in the village and the tragic death of the infant,” a military spokesman said Saturday. “Tear gas was used dozens of meters (yards) away from the Thawabteh residence, and no riot dispersal means were directed at the residence,” a statement said. Hundreds of people attended the boy’s funeral on Saturday.

Russia doubts ISIS claim that it shot down airliner
By Staff writer Al Arabiya News Saturday, 31 October 2015/Moscow cast doubt Saturday on claims by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group’s Egyptian affiliate to have downed a Russian passenger jet that crashed in the Sinai Peninsula, killing all 224 people onboard. “This information cannot be considered accurate,” transport minister Maksim Sokolov said in comments cited by Russian news agencies. “We are in close contact with our Egyptian colleagues and aviation authorities in the country. At present, they have no information that would confirm such insinuations,” he added. Egypt's Prime Minister Sherif Ismail (2nd L) and Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou look at the remains of a Russian airliner which crashed in central Sinai near El Arish city, north Egypt, October 31, 2015. (Reuters)
Meanwhile, Egypt has recovered the black box of a Russian airliner that crashed Saturday in the restive Sinai Peninsula, killing all 224 people on board, the prime minister’s office said. “The black box was recovered from the tail of the plane and has been sent to be analysed by experts,” the office of Prime Minister Sharif Ismail said, adding that rescuers had recovered 129 bodies from the site of the crash. The remains of a Russian airliner which crashed is seen in central Sinai near El Arish city, north Egypt, October 31, 2015. The Airbus A321, operated by Russian airline Kogalymavia under the brand name Metrojet, carrying 224 passengers crashed into a mountainous area of Egypt's Sinai peninsula on Saturday shortly after losing radar contact near cruising altitude, killing all aboard. (Reuters) The prime minister added that it was impossible to determine the cause of the Russian plane crash until the black box was examined but that no “irregular” activities were believed to be behind it, Reuters reported. The ISIS affiliate, which is waging a deadly insurgency in the Sinai, had circulated a statement on social media claiming responsibility for the crash, saying it brought down the aircraft in revenge for Russian air strikes against militants in Syria. The Metrojet's Airbus A-321 with registration number EI-ETJ that crashed in Egypt's Sinai peninsula, is seen in this picture taken in Antalya, Turkey September 17, 2015. (Reuters)
“The soldiers of the caliphate succeeded in bringing down a Russian plane in Sinai,” its statement said. Several military experts contacted by AFP said it was unlikely that ISIS militants in Sinai would have missiles capable of shooting down a plane flying at 30,000 feet. But they did not discount the possibility that a bomb may have been planted on the plane, or that it could have been hit by a rocket or missile as it lost height due to technical problems. The plane - an Airbus A321-200 operated by Russian carrier Kogalymavia - also known as Metrojet - had reportedly split in two. Other bodies had been found strapped to their seats. A woman reacts at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg, Russia, October 31, 2015. (Reuters)
An Egyptian security officer at the site told Reuters by telephone that his team extracted "at least 100 bodies and the rest are still inside," the officer, who requested anonymity, said. Earlier, Egyptian rescue team reportedly heard voices from the plane, raising hopes that some might still be alive. ost of the passengers on board are believed to be Russian tourists. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian rescue teams to visit the site of the crash, while Egypt's prosecutor general has ordered an investigation.
Russian officials began searching the Moscow offices of Kogalymavia, and have seized documents, Russian state TV reported. "Military planes have discovered the wreckage of the plane... in a mountainous area, and 45 ambulances have been directed to the site to evacuate dead and wounded," a cabinet statement said earlier. Putin declared a day of mourning after the incident in Egypt. Relatives of victims of a Russian airliner which crashed in Egypt, mourns at a hotel near Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg, Russia, October 31, 2015. (Reuters) The cause of the crash is not yet known. Kogalymavia said that it saw no grounds to blame human error for the crash of one of its airliners in Egypt, Russian news agencies reported.
An Egyptian soldier prays as emergency workers prepare to unload bodies of victims from the crash of a Russian aircraft over the Sinai peninsula from a police helicopter to ambulances, near Suez, Egypt, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015. (AP) RIA and Interfax news agencies cited an airline spokeswoman saying that the pilot had 12,000 hours flying experience. She also said that the plane had been fully serviced. Earlier on Friday, Egyptian air traffic control lost contact with the aircraft shortly after it took off from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to head to Russia, aviation sources told Reuters news agency earlier. The plane was at an altitude of 31,000 feet when it vanished from radar screens, the civilian aviation ministry said in a statement. [With Reuters and AFP]

Turkish jets hit ISIS targets in Syria
By Reuters Ankara Saturday, 31 October 2015/Turkish jets on Saturday launched bombing raids against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Syria, the day before Turks are due to vote in a parliamentary election, a senior government official said. American jets were standing by to assist and all aircraft involved in the operations returned safely, the official told Reuters. Ground forces were not involved. Turkey vowed to take a more active role in combating ISIS in July, as part of a multi-pronged offensive which also saw them ramp up attacks on Kurdish militants. Since then, the Turkish military has primarily concentrated on hitting its old foe, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), although Turkish airbases have also been used by U.S.-led coalition jets to hit ISIS targets in northern Syria.
ISIS militants control swathes of territory along the Turkish border, and the group is linked to a recent suicide bomb attack on a peace rally in Ankara, which killed more than 100 people. The bombing raids come at a sensitive time for the Turkish government, as it attempts to act decisively after criticism for failing to prevent the Ankara attack, the worst of its type in the country's history. At the same time, most Turks hold deep misgivings about any deeper involvement in the Syria conflict, and the opposition has strongly criticised President Tayyip Erdogan's foreign policy in the run-up to Sunday's parliamentary polls.

Germany: "20 Million Muslims by 2020"
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/November 01/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6793/germany-20-million-muslims
"We are importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples, as well as a different understanding of society and law." — From a leaked German intelligence document.
"We need to be clear that there must be limits and quotas for immigration -- we cannot save the whole world." — Markus Söder, Finance Minister of Bavaria.
"The migration crisis has the potential to destabilize governments, countries and the whole European continent. ... What we have been facing is not a refugee crisis. This is a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters" — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
"Meanwhile, refugees are still heading into Germany -- at a rate of around 10,000 a day. ... The decade after Ms. Merkel first came to power in 2005 now looks like a blessed period for Germany, in which the country was able to enjoy peace, prosperity and international respect, while keeping the troubles of the world at a safe distance. That golden era is now over." — Gideon Rachman, Financial Times.
Germany's Muslim population is set to nearly quadruple to an astonishing 20 million within the next five years, according to a demographic forecast by Bavarian lawmakers.
The German government expects to receive 1.5 million asylum seekers in 2015, and possibly even more in 2016. After factoring in family reunifications -- based on the assumption that individuals whose asylum applications are approved will subsequently bring an average of four additional family members to Germany -- that number will swell exponentially. This is in addition to the 5.8 million Muslims already living in Germany.
According to the president of the Bavarian Association of Municipalities (Bayerische Gemeindetag), Uwe Brandl, Germany is now on track to have "20 million Muslims by 2020." The surge in Germany's Muslim population represents a demographic shift of epic proportions, one that will change the face of Germany forever, "but we are just standing by, watching it happen."
Addressing an expo in Nuremburg on October 14, Brandl warned that untrammeled migration will entail heavy costs for German taxpayers and may also lead to social unrest. He said:
"A four-member refugee family receives up to 1,200 euros per month in transfer payments. Plus accommodation and meals. Now go to an unemployed German family man who has worked maybe 30 years, and now with his family receives only marginally more. These people are asking us whether we politicians really see this as fair and just."
Brandl said this also applies to the electronic health card, which provides asylum seekers with the same benefits as Germans who have paid into the health insurance system for many years. To criticize this as unfair has "nothing to do with racism or right-wing extremism."
Brandl's concerns are echoed in a leaked intelligence document, which warns that the influx of more than one million migrants from the Muslim world this year will lead to increasing political instability in Germany.
The document -- portions of which were published by Die Welt on October 25 -- reveals growing alarm within the highest echelons of Germany's intelligence and security apparatus about the consequences of Chancellor Angela Merkel's open-door immigration policy.
The so-called non-paper (the author of the document remains anonymous) warns that the "integration of hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants will be impossible given the large numbers involved and the already-existing Muslim parallel societies in Germany." The document adds:
"We are importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples, as well as a different understanding of society and law. German security agencies are unable to deal with these imported security problems, and the resulting reactions from the German population."
An unidentified high-ranking security official told Die Welt:
"The high influx of people from other parts of the world will lead to the instability of our country. By allowing this mass migration, we are producing extremists. Mainstream society is radicalizing because the majority does not want migration, which is being forced by the political elites. In the future, many Germans will turn away from the constitutional state."
The warnings come amid mounting criticism of Merkel, whose September 4 decision to open the door to migrants in Hungary exacerbated the crisis.
The Minister-President of Bavaria, Horst Seehofer, who also heads the Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party to Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has emerged as one of Merkel's most vocal critics. "I am convinced that the chancellor has chosen another vision for Germany," he said. "This has been a mistake that will occupy us for a long time. I see no way of putting the genie back into the bottle," he added.
In an interview with Bild, Seehofer said: "We explicitly believe that immigration must be controlled and limited if Germany wants to cope with it. The seriousness of the situation is becoming clearer every day. The population does not want clever sayings or inconclusive site visits. It wants action!"
After months of attacking critics of Merkel's immigration policies as right-wing xenophobes, Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier conceded that the migration crisis risks tearing German society apart. In a joint essay published by Der Spiegel, the two wrote: "We cannot indefinitely absorb and integrate more than one million refugees each year."
Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder said: "We need to be clear that there must be limits and quotas for immigration — we cannot save the whole world. The refugee influx will not be stopped unless we secure our borders and send a clear signal that not everyone can come to Germany."
Former Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) described Merkel's immigration policy as an "unprecedented political blunder" that will have "devastating long-term consequences." He said the job of politics is to think beyond the present and make decisions for the future. In view of the massive flows of migrants into Germany without any police checks, Friedrich concluded: "We have lost control." He added:
"It is totally irresponsible that tens of thousands of people are flowing into the country uncontrolled and unregistered, and we can only unreliably estimate exactly how many of them are Islamic State fighters or Islamist sleepers. I am convinced that no other country in the world would be so naive and starry-eyed to expose itself to such a risk."
CDU lawmaker Michael Stübgen said: "The disagreement [with Merkel] is fundamental. Our capacities are exhausted and there is concern that the system will implode if we do not regain control of our borders. But the chancellor disagrees and so the conflict is unsolved."
On October 21, more than 200 mayors in North-Rhine Westphalia signed an open letter to Merkel, in which they warned they were no longer capable of taking in any more migrants. The letter states:
"We are seriously concerned for our country and the cities and towns we represent. The reason: the massive and mostly uncontrolled flow of migrants to Germany and our cities and towns.
"All available housing possibilities are exhausted, including tents and shipping containers. Managing the migrant shelters is so time intensive that our personnel can no longer attend to other municipal responsibilities."
According to a report by German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle, the Berlin refugee center pictured here received up to 2000 applications for asylum per day in August -- before the migrant flow increased substantially. (Image source: Deutsche Welle video screenshot)
Speaking at an October 22 gathering of the European People's Party in Madrid, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán warned of the consequences of Merkel's immigration policies. He said:
"We are in deep trouble. The migration crisis has the potential to destabilize governments, countries and the whole European continent....
"What we have been facing is not a refugee crisis. This is a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters. This is an uncontrolled and unregulated process.... I also want to underline that there is an unlimited source of supply of people, after Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa is now also on the move. The dimension and the volume of the danger is well above our expectations....
"Our moral responsibility is to give back these people their homes and their countries. It can't be our objective to provide them with a new European life. Right to human dignity and security are basic rights. But neither the German, Austrian nor the Hungarian way of life is a basic right of all people on the Earth. It is only a right of those ones who have contributed to it. Europe is not able to accept everyone who wants a better life. We have to help them to get back their own lives with dignity and we have to send them back to their own countries....
"We cannot avoid speaking about the quality of our democracies. Is it freedom of information and speech when the media usually show women and children while 70% of the migrants are young men and they look like an army? How could it happen that our people feel that their opinion is not being taken into consideration? And we have to address the question of whether our people want what has been happening. Did we get authorization from them to allow millions of migrants to enter our continent? ... No, distinguished delegates, we did not.
"We cannot hide the fact that the European left has a clear agenda. They are supportive of migration. They actually import future leftist voters to Europe hiding behind humanism. It is an old trick but I do not understand why we have to accept it. They consider registration and protection of borders as bureaucratic, nationalist and against human rights. They have a dream about the politically constructed world society without religious traditions, without borders, without nations. They attack core values of our European identity: family, nation, subsidiarity and responsibility."
In an October 26 column for the Financial Times, titled "The End of the Merkel Era is Within Sight," Gideon Rachman wrote:
"The refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era. With the country in line to receive more than a million asylum-seekers this year alone, public anxiety is mounting — and so is criticism of Ms. Merkel, from within her own party. Some of her close political allies acknowledge that it is now distinctly possible that the chancellor will have to leave office, before the next general election in 2017. Even if she sees out a full term, the notion of a fourth Merkel administration, widely discussed a few months ago, now seems improbable...
"The trouble is that Ms. Merkel's government has clearly lost control of the situation. German officials publicly endorse the chancellor's declaration that 'We can do this'. But there is panic just beneath the surface: costs are mounting, social services are creaking, Ms. Merkel's poll ratings are falling and far-right violence is on the rise.
"As the placid surface of German society is disturbed, so arguments about the positive economic and demographic impact of immigration are losing their impact. Instead, fears about the long-term social and political effect of taking in so many newcomers — particularly from the imploding Middle East — are gaining ground. Meanwhile, refugees are still heading into Germany — at a rate of around 10,000 a day. (By contrast, Britain is volunteering to accept 20,000 Syrian refugees over four years.)...
"Some voters seem to have concluded that Mutti [a German familiar form of 'mother'] has gone mad — flinging open Germany's borders to the wretched of the earth...
"The refugee crisis marks a turning point. The decade after Ms. Merkel first came to power in 2005 now looks like a blessed period for Germany, in which the country was able to enjoy peace, prosperity and international respect, while keeping the troubles of the world at a safe distance. That golden era is now over."
**Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter. His first book, Global Fire, will be out in early 2016.

Will Iran Walk Away from Nuclear Deal?
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/November 01/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6797/walk-away-nuclear-deal
The world powers are now experiencing what it means to negotiate with Persian theocrats. All is negotiable; nothing is ever finally decided. Words never commit one to action.
Iran demands right to implement a phased plan of centrifuge expansion to 150,000 over a period of 15 years.
Iran demands that no sanctions are to be leveled against it because of alleged support for terrorism or human rights violations.
Iran demands that it must be free to explore all future advances in nuclear enrichment technology.
The world powers are now experiencing what it means to negotiate with Persian theocrats. All is negotiable; nothing is ever finally decided. Words never commit one to action. Changing circumstances vitiate the substance of any prior commitment, leaving the door open to additional demands. Although the Islamic Republic insists that it be recognized as a normal member of the international community, it will continue to behave as if it is not bound by global norms.
Despite Iran's apparent acceptance of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA}, known as the "Iran Deal," after the document's submission to the relevant state bureaucracies, these institutions have agreed to it only on a conditional basis. The JCPOA was approved by Iran's Consultative Assembly (Majlis), the Council of Guardians, the Supreme National Security Council and by the Office of the Leader. These seeming approvals can tempt those who desire the implementation of the nuclear deal to assume falsely that the bellicose rhetoric of Iran's leaders and the continued opposition to the JCPOA are just face-saving turns of phrase.
This same shallow mode of thinking assumes that last week's launch of an experimental ballistic missile by Iran was a bone thrown in the direction of hardliners who oppose the nuclear deal. Iran's leaders seem to have calculated that the missile test would not invite a reassessment by the P5+1 signatories, despite the fact that the launch was a clear violation of the JCPOA. Iran's leaders were proven correct: both Russia and China refused to condemn the missile test at the United Nations.
The publication of the letter of October 21 by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani, leaves little doubt that Iran is now demanding fundamental changes to the JCPOA. The conditions spelled out by the Leader will derail the timetable for the document's implementation probably beyond President Obama's term of office. In part, Tehran most likely wants to embarrass the U.S. and President Obama personally by denying him a legacy-related political victory, just as Tehran apparently wants to embarrass them by arresting yet another American hostage two weeks ago, American-Iranian business executive, Siamak Namazi. The hostage count of Americans now imprisoned in Iran is now five: Namazi, Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, Pastor Saeed Abedini, former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati and Robert Levinson.
Khamenei's letter indicates that he will not approve implementation of the JCPOA unless the following conditions are met:
The U.S. and European nations must draft a letter promising to end all possibility of "sanctions snapback."
The West must lift -- not "suspend" -- all sanctions immediately and permanently.
The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) must issue an irreversible declaration ending any future investigation into alleged military dimensions of Iran's nuclear programs.
Iran will postpone any renovations at its heavy water (plutonium) reactor at Arak until the signatories of the JCPOA produce an alternative usage plan.
Iran will not begin shipping out of country any of its enriched uranium unless the signatories agree to deliver uranium to Iran (albeit at a lower level of enrichment).
Iran demands right to implement a phased plan of centrifuge expansion to 150,000 over a period of 15 years.
No sanctions are to be leveled against Iran because of alleged support for terrorism or human rights violations.
Iran must be free to explore all future advances in nuclear enrichment technology.
Iran's leadership seems to have decided it will be able to endure a modified version of its "resistance economy," and that widening fissures among the P5+1 signatories of the JCPOA can be exploited to end its isolation. Rouhani, with Khamenei's endorsement, evidently calculates that Iran's economy will improve with or without the nuclear deal. Since taking office, Rouhani's cabinet has attempted to institute economic reforms designed to make Iran less vulnerable to sanctions. Rouhani, for instance, has dispensed with former President Ahmadinejad's populist polices of extensive cash grants and subsidies to provinces in rural Iran. Additionally, Rouhani has re-empowered the Budget Control Office, which had been politically sidelined by Ahmadinejad. Rouhani has also reduced somewhat the galloping inflation of the Ahmadinejad era, which had reached about 30% [1] by appointing professionally qualified fiscal officers to monitor adherence to the government's five-year plan. He also has sought to reduce corruption by discontinuing the practice of appointing unqualified cronies from the Basij militia and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -- a practice routine in Ahmadinejad's administrations.[2] Under his presidency, however, executions have skyrocketed to a degree that Amnesty International called "staggering," especially in view of trials it calls "blatantly unfair." In just the first months of 2015, accord to Amnesty International, nearly 700 people have been put to death.
The proponents of this so-called "resistance economy" in Iran seem to believe the country will be aided by increased trade with Russia and China and investment from other countries -- including West European ones -- that no longer feel bound by the U.S.-orchestrated sanctions regime. One prominent Iranian-born economist estimates that sanctions account for only about one-fifth of the downturn in Iran's economy during the last few years.[3] A more significant factor in the economy's downturn may be the continued decline in the price of oil, which accounts for the largest share of Iran's exports and hard currency earnings. Perhaps the change felt most keenly by the individual Iranian citizen has been the impact of the plummeting decline in the purchasing power of the Rial, which lost about 80% against the dollar in the last years of the Ahmadinejad presidency.[4]
It is probably safe to assume that the Western negotiators of the JCPOA have been introduced to the Middle East bazaar method of negotiation: After an agreement has been concluded, it becomes a basis for further demands.
If Iran succeeds in garnering the benefits of even partial relief of sanctions, and if it attracts additional foreign investment as well as increased international commerce, it will ignore the JCPOA altogether. The only improbable question is: Will Iran walk away before or after picking up its $150 billion?
Western negotiators of the Iran deal, who sat across the table from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif (right), have been introduced to the Middle East bazaar method of negotiation: After an agreement has been concluded, it becomes a basis for further demands. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (left) evidently calculates that Iran's economy will improve with or without the nuclear deal.
**Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve, where he was a Military Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Israel.
[1] House of Commons Library: Briefing Paper- Iran 25 October 2015. p.3.
[2] Iran Pulse Al-Monitor: Iran Section re Ahmadinejad fiscal practices. See also Brandeis Professor Habibi's article: "The Economic Legacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."
[3] Ala Hashami-Haeri, "Iran's Economy Will Continue to Grow With or Without a Nuclear Deal." Dr. Bijan Khajehpour of the Vienna-based Atieh International Consultancy informed his audience at Washington D.C.'s Woodrow Wilson Center that Iran's economy is now set to grow by 4%-5% even if U.S. sanctions are not lifted. He estimates that if Iran does receive the approximate 120 billion dollars of held capital that the economy could grow by 7%-8%. See also Ala Hashami-Haeri's NIAC 12 June 2015 Web Page Article: "Deal or No Deal-Iran's Economy Will Continue to Grow."
[4] House of Commons Library: Briefing Paper-Iran 25 October 2015. p.4.

Israel is Avoiding the Abyss, For Now
Jonathan Spyer/The Australian/October 31, 2015
Israeli Jews have experienced a wave of stabbing attacks in recent weeks.
For the past four weeks, Israel and the West Bank have been hit by a wave of stabbing attacks by Palestinian Muslims on Israeli Jews and protests in the West Bank.
Palestinian fury derives from claims that Israel planned to change the status quo banning Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount, as it is known to Jewish people, or Haram al-Sharif, as it is known to Muslims.
The 15ha area, in Jerusalem's walled Old City, in many ways constitutes the epicentre of the long conflict between Israeli Jews and Palestinians, Arabs and the wider Muslim community.
It is the holiest place in Judaism. As the site of the First and Second Temples, it is the most resonant reminder for Israeli Jews of their sense of remembered and ancient sovereignty in the land.
For Palestinians, Arabs and the wider Muslim world, the area is revered as the site of the al-Aqsa Mosque, whose holiness is surpassed only by Mecca and Medina. The fact of Israeli control of Jerusalem's Old City since 1967 constitutes for many Palestinians a constant reminder of what they regard as the wrongs of the present situation, and the perceived historical injustice of Israel's establishment. So the area is a permanent flashpoint. Its potential to ignite the flames of renewed conflict is ever present.
The current wave of attacks does not appear set to turn into a mass uprising.
Some believe the wave of attacks heralds a third intifada, or Palestinian uprising. But several indications suggest that, although the wave of attacks is unprecedented in the decade since the end of the second intifada in 2005, it does not appear set to turn into a mass uprising.
So is the violence being contained, and if it is, what are the factors underlying this? And will the present trend hold?
Jerusalem has been flooded with an increased deployment of police, reinforced by 1,200 border police officers, for the past two weeks. This week Israel police spokesman Mickey Rosenfeld contended that this deployment, on a tactical level, had succeeded in preventing attacks and containing the situation.
Without doubt there has been a numerical decline in attacks in Jerusalem, and a similar reduction in incidents elsewhere in Israel, during the past week (though not in the West Bank).
Several additional elements have contributed to the tentative sense that the violence, if not yet defeated, is being contained.
First, the agreement reached between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and Jordanian King Abdullah II in Amman last Saturday lessens the plausibility of any claims that Israel plans to alter the status quo on the Mount.
"Al-Aksa is ours and so is the Church of the Holy Sepulchre," PA President Mahmoud Abbas declared when the violence first flared up last month. Israelis "have no right to desecrate them with their filthy feet."
This agreement, in the first instance between Netanyhau and Abdullah, provides an Israeli guarantee that the status quo on the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif is not going to be changed. The placing of cameras in the area will be a further positive contribution in making clear that no such change is being implemented.
Of course, no evidence has emerged of an Israeli plan at any stage to change the status quo in the area. Rather, one of the more notable constants since the capture of the area by Israel in June 1967 has been the continued prohibition of Jewish or Christian prayer on the Mount, despite its great significance to these religions.
But the perception of a danger to the al-Aqsa Mosque, the product of a constant drumbeat kept up by Hamas, the Islamic movement in Israel, prominent clerics and sometimes Fatah party leaders including Abbas, has been the key element in firing up the incendiary atmosphere behind the attacks.
The agreement will not appease the youthful circles most closely involved in the violence. They are influenced by social media rather than high-level politics.
Abbas hopes to control and channel the unrest, not escalate it.
But it may well reduce the general level of apprehension regarding the situation on the Mount, and thus lessen the broader support necessary to turn the present situation into a large-scale uprising.
Second, it is noteworthy that co-operation between the Israeli security forces and those of the Palestinian Authority has not broken down as a result of the events. The authority leadership does not control the young people carrying out the stabbings. But if the authority wished to put its own structures behind the unrest, it could transform it at a stroke into something far more serious.
On a verbal level, the Palestinian Authority accepts the stabbings and describes the perpetrators as "martyrs." Abbas contributed to the inflamed atmosphere underlying the attacks in a speech broadcast on PA TV on September 17 in which he called on Israelis/Jews not to place their "filthy feet" on the Mount.
While praising the perpetrators as 'martyrs,' the PA has continued security cooperation with Israel.
But the goal of the Palestinian Authority president is to control and channel the unrest, not to escalate it. The authority may benefit from unarmed protests that keep the Palestinian cause the subject of world attention. But Abbas does not seek a general violent insurgency against Israel.
This reflects itself in the practical moves adopted by Abbas.
Fatah party armed groups such as the Tanzim and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades played a key role in the attacks on Israeli population centres in the 2000-05 period. Security co-operation broke down in northern autumn of 2000 in a prelude to the mayhem that followed.
But this time, despite his rhetorical condemnations, Abbas evidently prefers not to throw away the relative stability of recent years. The Tanzim and other Fatah armed groups have been instructed not to engage in violence. The official Palestinian Authority security forces are continuing cooperation with Israel.
Third, there is a more nebulous element here, harder to quantify but nevertheless apparent in conversations with Palestinian residents of Jerusalem. The general chaos in the surrounding area — in Syria, Sinai, Iraq and so on — has not escaped the attention of Palestinians or Israelis. This serves as a disincentive to participation in violence among wide sections of society. It is easy to launch an uprising, harder to know where it may lead.
Chaos in the surrounding region makes Israelis and Palestinians alike wary of escalation.
The second intifada was not that long ago. It is still remembered by all those over the age of 30. The suffering that it entailed and the surrounding examples of what a general breakdown in civil order can produce are probable contributors to the fact the demonstrations of recent weeks have stayed small, numbering in the hundreds rather than the thousands.
Fourth, the attacks are emerging not from organised structures but from a milieu of young Palestinians too young to remember the previous intifada, who receive their information from social media, where claims that Israel is about to change the status quo on the Temple Mount proliferate.
The experience of the Arab Spring shows the power and the limitations of loosely organised or unorganised groups of youth inspired by social media.
Activity generated by social media is immensely difficult for the security forces of a government to combat. There is no means to infiltrate or have forewarning of a person who is convinced by a message on social media, then chooses to go out and commit a murder using instruments available in most kitchens.
Individual violence incited by social media is difficult to combat.
But other than expressing anger, a leaderless, directionless trend of this type ultimately is capable of only a limited impact. The stabbings will not produce any gains for the Palestinians. Nor will they have any particular effect on internal Palestinian politics.
In the agreement reached in Amman last weekend, Israel refused a Palestinian demand to return to the pre-2000 status quo on the Temple Mount, according to which Israeli security forces would not enter the area and the age of worshippers was not restricted. The reason for this refusal, clearly, was to dispel any attempt to claim that the wave of stabbings had achieved a concrete concession from Israel.
Fifth, the Palestinian Islamist movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad have thrown their support behind the protests and stabbings, and are seeking to derive political capital from them.
Several of the attacks were committed by individuals with connections to the Islamists. Five individuals connected to Hamas were arrested for the murders of Eitam and Na'ama Henkin on October 1. Muhanad Alkubi, who killed IDF soldier Omri Levy on October 18, was also in contact with that movement. Islamic Jihad claimed credit for the attack in Jerusalem's Old City on October 3, in which Nehemia Lavi and Aharon Bennett lost their lives.
But there is a gap between the desires of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and their abilities to implement them. Hamas wants to turn the unrest into a mass movement that it can direct, as much against the Palestinian Authority as against Israel.
Abbas is unpopular. Palestinian elections have not taken place for nearly a decade. Hamas would like to increase the demonstrations and attacks on the West Bank and assume the leadership of them, turning them into a mass movement that could result in the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and the movement's seizing the leadership of the Palestinians.
At the same time, Hamas wishes to avoid another destructive war with Israel in its Gaza enclave. The reconstruction of the damage suffered in last year's round of fighting is still under way. So focusing the unrest on the Palestinian Authority fiefdom of the West Bank would suit its purposes.
Islamic Jihad, which is purely a paramilitary group rather than a military-political one such as Hamas, also is energetically seeking to fan the flames. The movement has been the main factor in the demonstrations close to the Gaza border.
The intention of both these movements is to launch larger-scale and more sophisticated terror attacks against Israelis, along the lines of those witnessed during the second intifada.
Such attacks would win the support of the fluid population of very young Palestinians who are engaged in the present violence, and bring the situation to a new level of gravity.
It is worth remembering that at the height of the second intifada, 130 Israelis were killed in a single month of attacks (March 2002). By contrast, the past month has seen the deaths of 11 Israelis. Hamas and Islamic Jihad want to raise the price. But no such large-scale "quality" terror attacks have yet taken place.
This is not by chance. While a decision by an individual to carry out a stabbing as a result of incitement is hard for the intelligence structures of Israel (and the Palestinian Authority) to detect in advance, this is not so with regard to larger-scale attacks, which require a network of skilled personnel, prior knowledge and direction.
Structures of this kind are vulnerable to penetration and surveillance. Israel eventually managed to defeat the second intifada through a combination of intelligence work and targeting of commanders and activists of the organisations engaged against it.
The networks that enabled this still exist in the West Bank. These, until now, have prevented the Palestinian Islamist organisations from carrying out attacks that would necessitate a more determined Israeli response and increase the gravity of the situation.
There is another factor that should give pause even to the circles of Hamas, with regard to the advisability of encouraging a further deterioration of the security situation.
On October 22, the "Damascus Province" of Islamic State issued a video featuring a heavily armed militant speaking fluent, Palestinian-accented Hebrew.
Renewed low-intensity war would likely herald the arrival of Islamic State west of the Jordan River.
It was the latest in a series of clips issued by the organisation supporting the present wave of violence. In the video, the man issued bloodcurdling threats against Israeli Jews, promising that Islamic State was coming "from the north and the south, from Sinai, from everywhere" and that "not one Jew" would be left alive "in Jerusalem or across Israel."
The inspiration for the wave of knife attacks is fairly obvious. It is Islamic State that has "pioneered" murder with cold steel in the Middle East.
If Hezbollah, with its paramilitary methods, was the inspiration and spirit behind the second intifada, the corresponding inspiration today is the murderous religious fervour of Islamic State.
Earlier this month, the Israeli authorities arrested seven Arab citizens of Israel in the Nazareth area. They are accused of establishing the first Islamic State terror cell in Israel.
Renewed low-intensity war would almost certainly herald the arrival of Islamic State west of the Jordan River. Present indications suggest that while Israelis and Palestinians glimpsed that abyss in the strange and bloody October of 2015, it has not yet been entered.
Friends of both peoples should be hoping this situation continues to hold.
Jonathan Spyer is director of the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Related Topics: Israel & Zionism, Palestinians | Jonathan Spyer
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Slouching towards the abyss
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/November 01/15
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst. Are full of passionate intensity” - William Butler Yeats
The decision by President Obama to deploy less than fifty American Special Operation forces to Kurdish controlled Northern Syria to assist and advise local forces and coordinate bombing raids with the international air campaign is emblematic of his leadership style in dealing with the raging conflicts in Iraq and Syria; incremental, tactical, timid and reactive. There is an Orwellian quality to this deployment emanating from the President’s insistence that he will not deploy ground troops to both military theatres in combat missions, hence the emphatic, unconvincing claim that these forces, which will be in harm’s way ‘do not have a combat mission’ according to Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary.
President Obama was compelled to order this limited deployment because of the changing military balance following Russia’s direct involvement in the war on the side of the Assad regime, and the failure of the international air campaign that the U.S. has been leading for more than a year to seriously degrade or roll back the tactical gains of the Islamic State ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. The President who will soon begin his eight and last year in office is cognizant of the fact that his legacy will be tarnished irrevocably if in the last few months of his tenure he found himself scrambling to prevent the unraveling of Iraq or greater humanitarian catastrophes in Syria or the emergence of Moscow and Tehran as the arbiters of the future of what’s left of Syria.
At best the Obama administration is trying through its limited military role in Northern Syria, and through its acquiescence to Iran’s participation in the diplomatic efforts in Syria to increase the pressure on ISIS, particularly against its ‘capital’ Raqqa, and to give diplomacy another chance, even though many in the administration don’t believe that a political breakthrough is possible any time soon. But it is in the interest of the White House to appear trying to revive the ‘Geneva process’ and give the eternally optimistic John Kerry another chance to pursue a Chimera in Syria. Militarily, the U.S. will be dependent mainly on the People’s Protection Units, The so-called YPG who fought ISIS at Kobane, and a smaller Syrian Arab forces operating in Northeastern Syria. However, the YPG lacks the power to seriously threaten ISIS in Raqqa, and no one expects the Kurds to fight outside their own territory or to lead a military assault against an Arab majority city. Thus, the new military effort, reflect Obama’s Modus operandi; incremental, tactical, timid and reactive
Passionate intensity vs lack of conviction.
If Obama’s decision on the Special Operation Forces represents a very modest military shift, his decision to reverse Washington’s long held opposition to invite Iran to participate in the diplomatic efforts to reach a political solution to the war in Syria represents a more fateful decision for the Syrian people. Both decisions, at least in the foreseeable future are bound to make the Syrian wars more lethal and more destructive and less susceptible to diplomatic resolution. If the last four years of devastation proved anything, it is that Syria’s conflicts could and will get much worse, particularly when the supporters of the Assad regime, particularly Iran and its auxiliary militias display their ‘passionate intensity’ on the battlefield, and the supporters of the Syrians fighting tyranny, particularly the Obama administration, continue to demonstrate that they ‘lack all conviction’.
Ever since the beginning of the uprising in Syria , the Obama administration has been consistent in its delusional belief that Russia can be a constructive player in Syria, and hence its continued misreading of Russia’s political intentions and now its military end-game. Russia – and Iran- are not willing to seriously contemplate doing the one thing all Syrian oppositions group agree on; getting rid of Bashar Assad and his henchmen. From the moment the Russians began their air war against Assad’s enemies, some of them were equipped by the United States, the Obama administration’s mantra has been that Russia has embarked on a strategic blunder, and that Putin will rue the day he stumbled into the first military quagmire in a majority Muslim country since the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Secretary of defense Ashton Carter said recently that Russia is ‘doomed to fail’ in Syria, and that Moscow has not ‘thought through very thoroughly’ its adventure in Syria.
While it is unfair to blame President Obama solely for the deteriorating relations, it is also true that the fact that he did not exercise strong leadership to influence the outcome of the conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Libya.
Antony Blinken, the U.S. deputy secretary of state told a mostly Arab audience in Manama, Bahrain that ‘Russia’s intervention in Syria is a prime example of the law of unintended consequences. It will have two primary effects,’ He added ‘first, it will increase Russia’s leverage over Assad. But second, it will increase the conflict’s leverage over Russia. And that will create a compelling incentive to Russia to work for, not against, a political solution.’ In other words, the outcome of Russia’s intervention in Syria, if we are patient and wait for Russia to see the light, will be positive. The Obama administration, in its brazen attempts not to own its strategic folly in Syria, which made the Russian intervention possible, is willing to allow more time for Russia – along with Iran and Assad’s forces- to inflict more unimaginable suffering on the Syrian people in order for the Russians to come around and see the wisdom of the American assessment of the conflict and its eventual resolution. This is an abominable case of wishful thinking masquerading as policy.
Either Assad or ISIS
Much has been written about the divergent visions of Russia and Iran about the ultimate resolution of Syria’s conflicts and the fate of the Assad regime. It is said that Russia is interested in a unitary state led by a friendly secular regime in Damascus with an army to safeguard the institutions of the state. (Putin’s secular Russia smells very much like the Orthodox Mother Russia of yore, where the Russian Church declares a ‘holy war’ against the Islamists of Syria, and the priests throw holy waters on the missiles that the Russian pilots will fire, presumably to make them more deadly?) Iran, in contrast is mainly interested in maintaining an Alawite regime in that vital part of Western Syria that Iran needs to supply its Hezbollah client in Lebanon with heavy weaponry to be used against Israel in case of another conflict, and that Iran is content to maintain its influence in Syria through its Shiite proxies. Theoretically these views are divergent. But the fact remains that both Russia and Iran are not willing so far to abandon the man and the regime that gave them unprecedented influence and power in his own country, and in the case of Iran, in Lebanon too. In this context, Iran’s acceptance of the June 2012 Geneva Final Communique regarding the political transition in Syria, does not indicate new flexibility. It is conceivable in the future, if both Russia and Iran can impose a new political order that will safeguard their strategic interests without Assad that they will unceremoniously dump him. The Russians keep saying that Assad remaining throughout the transitional period is crucial for the fight against ISIS and the other radical Islamists, and given that they are bombing mostly the Islamists that are fighting Assad and not ISIS, it is clear that they are trying to present the U.S. and the other members of the anti-Assad coalition with a binary choice from hell; either Assad or ISIS.
It is no secret that America’s traditional Arab friends don’t trust the Obama administration’s policies in the Middle East and their alienation from Washington has been deepened following the nuclear deal with Iran. While it is unfair to blame President Obama solely for the deteriorating relations, it is also true that the fact that he did not exercise strong leadership to influence the outcome of the conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Libya, and his reluctance to deter Iran’s mischief in the Levant and Mesopotamia, weigh heavily on the region. Obama’s problematic relations with the leaders of Israel and Turkey, for a variety of reasons, has added more anxiety and uncertainty in a region that already feels that it is no longer as important to the United States as it used to be only few years ago.
Slouching towards the abyss
There is a growing concern in the region, that things will deteriorate further, or fall apart in the next months of the life of the Obama presidency, and that the U.S. will not be able or willing with him at the helm to stem the decline. One cannot talk realistically about potential positive breakthroughs in the conflicts raging in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya. Egypt at best will continue to muddle through a low intensity civil strife, and the chances of Lebanon imploding in 2016 are very real. The continuing war in Syria and Hezbollah’s involvement in it, the growing pressure of the Syrian refugees, the total political dysfunction in Beirut, when seen against the background of a crushing national debt, do constitute a perfect storm from which the brittle country may not recover.
Iran may be facing economic travails at home, and political challenges in the Arab world, but Iran is an ascendant Shiite power in the region and it is projecting itself as the protectors of the Shiite Arabs. What makes that rise very salient and Jarring, is that there is no equally assertive Sunni power willing and able to counterbalance Iran. This lack of equilibrium is made much worse, from the perspective of those in the region who use to look for the U.S. to maintain a semblance of regional balance. Many Arabs and Europeans are beginning to see and feel the new pressure of a new international reality emanating from the perception that America has lost its clear predominance in world affairs. The collapse of the bipolar world following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, gave way to a brief unipolar American moment. That unique American moment began to whittle away following the Afghan and Iraqi wars. The American primacy today is being challenged by an irredentist and assertive Russia, by a very ambitious China seeking to create an exclusive Chinese zone in its immediate environment along with the naval power necessary to maintain that influence, and by an increasingly belligerent Iran. The Obama administration rejects the claim that the U.S. is in an entrenchment mode. But clearly the leadership style of the President, and his well-known reluctance to use decisive military force, his constant talk about partnerships and coalitions where regional powers play greater leadership roles, and the fact that the U.S. supposedly led from behind during the Libyan conflict, are clear signs that the U.S. despite its economic power and military preponderance, is in fact under Obama in an entrenchment mode. When you combine this American posture, with the colossal failure of the Arab state system over the last fifty years in creating and maintaining modern, viable, fair, open and representative forms of governance, which led to the current calamities, one could see the extent of the historic challenges facing many of the states of the region. This is the view of many in the Middle East. It is no wonder that those concerned about America’s diminishing leadership role in the region, and are cognizant of their own failures, are watching with a deep sense of resignation their world slouching towards the abyss.

Behind a politician’s lust for power
Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/November 01/15
There are key moments that determine the path of a politician and the future of a state. Once a politician sees one of these moments, he is guaranteed not only a place in history but possibly success as well. That moment occurs when the politician feels and acts, realizing it is time to leave before he becomes delusional. The lure of power is attractive, particularly with a retinue telling him he is the savior and only possible leader. This is how illusion mixes reality, and the result is a great alienation between reality and the fairytale in the leader’s imagination. That seems a simplification of the political reality, but in fact it is the reason for countries being destroyed and for the killing and displacement of populations. In history and also in the present day, the political leader’s loss of touch with reality signals the beginning of the end. Saddam Hussein once lived this illusion and held on to power despite dozens of opportunities to end his people’s suffering, protect the state’s institutions and give up power. He chose to be a tyrant, leading the country to internal and external wars that destroyed Iraq, led the state’s institutions to collapse and ended in his and his sons’ deaths. This politician who misses such opportunities does not realize that he has lost both legitimacy and life. Qaddafi lived the dream to such an extent that he himself appeared surprised at the unrest in his country as indicated by his infamous question, “Who are you?” He believed that everyone loved him and that it was impossible to find even a single opponent. Democratic institutions in developed countries such as the United States are meant to protect the country from the tyranny of politicians and distribute power among the state’s legislative and executive branches. Most importantly, they take vital decisions for protecting democracy, the most significant being that the president can serve for only two terms. We remember that former U.S. President Bill Clinton was popular. If the constitution had allowed him a third term, he would have swept the elections. Americans wore shirts with his picture on them even though they were voting for a new president. It was funny and also showed people’s admiration for the president’s performance.
Respecting the constitution prevents emotions overriding political decisions. Rationality is thus the decision-maker rather than massive street marches asking the leader to remain in power and sacrifice himself for the people. With great irony, we remember the Syrian Parliament when it changed the constitution to allow the election of President Bashar Assad for a second time. The Parliament, supposedly the legislative and regulatory authority, was turned into a puppet show in which members competed in applauding Assad. One even jumped hysterically off his chair as he shouted slogans in support of the president. It was nothing more than an embarrassing scene that seriously weakened the great people of Syria.
A real desire to protect the state
Thus, we reap what we sow. This transformation which many people thought would make Syria a developed and democratic country has produced one of the bloodiest leaders in modern history. Syrians are paying the price for their leader’s grip on power. The result has been millions of refugees, 300,000 dead, and the destruction of the pillars of the state as they have fallen into the hands of terrorists and militias. Does any authority deserve all these sacrifices? Despite such justifications, how can a person accept this much damage just to stay in power? The leader missed the right moment and it passed him by. It is now too late for him to act.
The Libyan experience embodies a political leader’s mixing fantasy and reality. Qaddafi lived the dream to such an extent that he himself appeared surprised at the unrest in his country as indicated by his infamous question, “Who are you?” He believed that everyone loved him and that it was impossible to find even a single opponent. Any lust for such power is doomed and must be restrained in order to protect the politicians and their hold on the state. The ousted Yemeni President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, was equally addicted to power although he was saved by a Gulf-sponsored agreement that gave him immunity. In the end, the lust for power triumphed, leading him to ally himself with his former enemies in order to return to power. The region’s experiences stress the need for powerful institutions that consolidate human rights and respect for a constitution in order to protect the state from the whims of politicians and their well-documented madnesses. The devastation that has taken place in Arab states could have been avoided if politicians had possessed a real desire to protect the state rather than a simple desire to benefit themselves and their cronies. Despite their bloody mistakes, they have given a lesson to people today and those of coming generations, showing clearly that errors can and do happen. And falling into the same old patterns will be as disastrous today and tomorrow as it has been in the past.

Stop the Syria massacres first, then talk later
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/November 01/15
The latest round of international talks on how to end the Syrian conflict took place on the same day as the latest massacre in the country. Regime airstrikes and shelling killed at least 70 people and injured another 550 at a market in Douma, the violence-wracked city located just northeast of Damascus. Doctors without Borders indicated in a written statement that as first responders rushed toward the mangled victims, shelling targeted the chaotic site, worsening the bloodshed.
The barbaric, though hardly unprecedented, attack on the market took place as no less than 17 countries sat down at the table – no Syrian parties were present – to discuss the need for a comprehensive ceasefire. With more talks scheduled for the coming weeks it is relevant to ask if - despite all the talking - any party is actually speaking for suffering Syrians.
It is difficult to comprehend the total exclusion of the Syrian opposition and any Kurdish representatives. One of which will usher in a new era post-conflict and the other which will play a pivotal role in security matters on the ground. In addition to the failure to bring two of the most important parties to the table, it is all but certain the talks will descend into failure. Both Iran and Russia refuse to back any deal that risks Assad’s future grip on the country; meanwhile, the international community’s excuse for not doing more to stop the bloodshed, the “there are no good options in Syria” could very well soon be replaced with “the involved parties failed to agree on Assad’s future.” At the same time, the death toll will continue to skyrocket while both Russia and the Assad regime carry out war crimes with impunity. In addition to the continued, indiscriminate targeting of civilians, Doctors without Borders officials confirmed that at least 12 hospitals were bombed since late September, killing at least 35 people.
No party has successfully delivered any security solutions to end the conflict for over four years
That such attacks are being continuously carried out while over a dozen countries discuss the conflict is absurd; the death toll from the same day the talks took place - alone - should trigger immediate initiatives to alleviate the dire humanitarian crisis and suffering. While not abandoning the position that Assad’s criminal regime must go, the U.S. should use upcoming talks as an opportunity to lead on presenting solutions that address the humanitarian crisis. No party has successfully delivered any security solutions to end the conflict for over four years. Such a reality at this point in underscores the need to prioritize the humanitarian situation over all other issues on the table in the immediate term.
The U.S. and EU should pressure Iran and Russia to agree to measures that immediately mitigate the suffering on the ground. A U.N.-backed meeting, with Doctors without Borders advisors present, should be held for the sole purpose of determining which besieged areas are in greatest need. All parties should then focus on implementing a ceasefire in the designated areas and agree to facilitate the transfer of critical aid. Any party opposed to such measures only further exposes their lack of serious interest in deescalating the conflict and their own culpability in the continued bloodshed.
The statement released by the international community after their meeting in Vienna offers a broad nine-point outline of what the group referred to as matters of “mutual understanding.” The parties very well may be in agreement on the nine issues but not a single one of them can even begun to be addressed without halting the wanton bloodshed first.

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Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006