LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 31/15
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.december31.15.htm
Bible Quotations For Today
In the beginning was the Word, and the Word
was with God, and the Word was God
"Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 01/01-18: "In
the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. He
was in the beginning with God. All things came into being through him, and
without him not one thing came into being. What has come into being. in him was
life, and the life was the light of all people. The light shines in the
darkness, and the darkness did not overcome it. There was a man sent from God,
whose name was John. He came as a witness to testify to the light, so that all
might believe through him. He himself was not the light, but he came to testify
to the light. The true light, which enlightens everyone, was coming into the
world. He was in the world, and the world came into being through him; yet the
world did not know him. He came to what was his own, and his own people did not
accept him. But to all who received him, who believed in his name, he gave power
to become children of God, who were born, not of blood or of the will of the
flesh or of the will of man, but of God. And the Word became flesh and lived
among us, and we have seen his glory, the glory as of a father’s only son, full
of grace and truth. (John testified to him and cried out, ‘This was he of whom I
said, "He who comes after me ranks ahead of me because he was before me." ’)
From his fullness we have all received, grace upon grace. The law indeed was
given through Moses; grace and truth came through Jesus Christ. No one has ever
seen God. It is God the only Son, who is close to the Father’s heart, who has
made him known."
We have not ceased praying for you and asking that you may be filled with the
knowledge of God’s will
"Letter to the Colossians 01/09b-20: "We have not ceased praying for
you and asking that you may be filled with the knowledge of God’s will in all
spiritual wisdom and understanding, so that you may lead lives worthy of the
Lord, fully pleasing to him, as you bear fruit in every good work and as you
grow in the knowledge of God. May you be made strong with all the strength that
comes from his glorious power, and may you be prepared to endure everything with
patience, while joyfully giving thanks to the Father, who has enabled you to
share in the inheritance of the saints in the light. He has rescued us from the
power of darkness and transferred us into the kingdom of his beloved Son, in
whom we have redemption, the forgiveness of sins. He is the image of the
invisible God, the firstborn of all creation; for in him all things in heaven
and on earth were created, things visible and invisible, whether thrones or
dominions or rulers or powers all things have been created through him and for
him. He himself is before all things, and in him all things hold together. He is
the head of the body, the church; he is the beginning, the firstborn from the
dead, so that he might come to have first place in everything. For in him all
the fullness of God was pleased to dwell, and through him God was pleased to
reconcile to himself all things, whether on earth or in heaven, by making peace
through the blood of his cross."
Titles For Latest LCCC
Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December
30-31/15
Saudi anti-terrorism coalition raises
eyebrows in Lebanon/Sami Nader/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Turkey’s foreign policy prospects for 2016 not so promising/Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/December
30/15
Amid financial hardship, Erdogan looks to Qatar as 'rich daddy'/Zülfikar Doğan/Al-Monitor/December
30/15
Can tourism be revived in ancient Iraqi city/Wassim Bassem/Al-Monitor/December
30/15
Will Green Movement haunt Iran’s upcoming elections/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December
30/15
Is Riyadh belt-tightening or amending economic approach/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al
Arabiya/December 30/15
Is Russia going soft on Assad/Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
Will Russia boost Mideast ties in 2016/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December
30/15
The Paris Response: Answering Urgent Questions in the Anti-ISIS Fight/Anna
Borshchevskaya/Washington Institute/December 30/15
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on
December 30-31/15
Berri Warns Region
Being 'Redrawn on Ruins of the Sykes-Picot Agreement'
Saniora Accuses Iran of Hindering Presidential Settlement
Report: Army Still Awaits Saudi Grant, Will Make no Statements
Bekaa Man Killed in Landmine Blast near Syria's Border
Jumblat Travels to Cairo on 'Non-Political' Trip
Israel Army Chief Inspects Golan Front amid Tensions with Hizbullah
Saudi anti-terrorism coalition raises eyebrows in Lebanon
Titles For Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
December 30-31/15
Canada congratulates
Government of Iraq on raising Iraqi flag in Ramadi
U.N. Offers to Help Iraqi Refugees Return to Ramadi
Bahrain F-16 Crashes in Saudi near Yemen Border as Rebels Fire Ballistic Missile
Brussels Cancels New Year's Festivities over Terror Threat, Detains New Suspect
Israel Plays Down U.S. Spying Scandal
Thousands of Homes Destroyed in Iraq's Ramadi
1 mln migrants came to Europe by sea this year: U.N.
Two blasts hit Kurdish-controlled city in Syria
Baghdad, Ankara bicker over Turkish troops in Iraq
Saudi says Syria rebel chief killing doesn’t serve peace
Saudi envoy to Iraq repeats call for militants to surrender
Turkey arrests 2 ISIS suspects over NYE attack plot
Emergency measures as Tehran records 18th day of bad air
Bahraini F-16 jet crashes in Saudi near Yemen border
Bahrain jails 29 over bomb attack on police
Saudi Ministy of Labor to count children of non-Saudi fathers as citizens
U.S. chides Russia over civilian deaths in Syria
U.S. ‘still spying’ on Netanyahu communications
Israel arrests Jews over celebration of toddler death
Iranian navy test fires rockets near U.S. carrier
Saudi Arabia, Turkey to set up ‘strategic cooperation council’: Saudi FM
Links From Jihad Watch Site for
December 30-31/15
Raymond Ibrahim: ISIS Slaughters Christians “In Their Beds”: Muslim Persecution
of Christians, October 2015
Egypt: Salafi party bans Muslims from greeting Christians during Christmas
Raymond Ibrahim: Islamic Revenge? Muslim Eats Enemy’s Penis to “Cure Heartache”
Robert Spencer in FrontPage: House Democrats Move to Criminalize Criticism of
Islam
Houston: Man charged with setting mosque fire was devout Muslim regular attendee
Turkey: Police foil New Year’s Eve jihad terror plot, second Islamic State plot
foiled in a week
Turkey: Muslims chase Santa Claus, he converts to Islam after discovering it’s a
religion of peace
France: Left enraged as Hollande proposes stripping jihad terrorists of their
passports
Islamic State issues rules for treatment of sex slaves
Geller:
Jihad in America 2015
Video: Robert Spencer gives 10 examples of the Qur’an being violent
UK: Muslim couple convicted of preparing jihad terror attack in London
Berri Warns Region Being 'Redrawn on Ruins
of the Sykes-Picot Agreement'
Naharnet/December 30/15/Speaker Nabih Berri warned on Wednesday that the
region is witnessing major developments the results of which are
“unpredictable.” He said: “There are signs that a new map of the region is being
drawn up on the ruins of the Sykes-Picot agreement.” He made his remarks during
his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his Ain el-Tineh residence. “The challenges
require the Lebanese people to adopt a responsible approach at the beginning of
the new year in order to fortify constitutional institutions,” stressed Berri.
The Sykes-Picot agreement was a secret agreement between Britain and France at
the end of World War I and demise of the Ottoman Empire, which saw the division
of the areas of what are now Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Iraq, and
Syria between the two European powers. Earlier on Wednesday, media reports said
that Berri had warned that the institutions are facing a “great danger” due to
the obstruction of the work of parliament and cabinet. His visitors quoted him
as saying: “Those who believe that obstructing parliament and government will
resolve the presidential deadlock have been proven wrong seeing as a head of
state has not been elected.”He revealed that he will “remind officials of their
responsibilities during the next national dialogue session, which is set for
January 11.” The speaker will focus his efforts in the new year on “reactivating
the work of cabinet and parliament,” said his visitors. The failure to elect a
president has led to paralysis at parliament and government, which in turn has
crippled state institutions. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014
when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor.
Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise
candidate have thwarted the polls.
Saniora Accuses Iran of Hindering Presidential Settlement
Naharnet/December 30/15/Head of the Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Fouad
Saniora stressed that Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri is committed to
the proposal he made on ending the presidential deadlock, reported various media
on Wednesday. Saniora stated that the initiative has not collapsed and that it
will be revitalized after the holiday season is over, added al-Mustaqbal daily.
He meanwhile accused Iran of hampering efforts to end the impasse. Change and
Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun and some Christian March 14 coalition parties
are also behind the obstruction of the proposal, said the former premier.
Saniora later said that Hariri's proposal “could not have seen the light without
an indirect Saudi-Iranian understanding.” “Tehran later backed down on the
agreement, which was also hampered by Aoun's stances,” he noted according to As
Safir newspaper. Hariri had proposed the nomination of Marada Movement leader MP
Suleiman Franjieh as president as part of a greater settlement that would
revitalize the political scene in Lebanon. The move was met by reservations from
Aoun and Hariri's allies in the March 14 camp, the Kataeb Party and Lebanese
Forces.
Report: Army Still Awaits Saudi Grant, Will Make no
Statements
Naharnet/December 30/15/The Lebanese army is still waiting for the Saudi grant
to purchase French weapons following declarations by some officials that it has
kicked off, amid reports saying that it will make no statement before receiving
the arms, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday. “The Lebanese army is
waiting to see what will happen to the Saudi grant after announcements made by
more than one official that it has kicked off. The army will not make any
statement before receiving the arms particularly that it had already submitted a
list of the weapons needed to the French authorities,” a senior military source
told the daily. “Washington continues to support and arm the army and the U.S.
ammunition continues to arrive to it warehouses according to its needs. They
have never been cut off,” added the source. “The British are also equipping the
regiments on the land border and there is numerous aid arriving from several
countries.”In June, reports said that the Saudi grant was reportedly frozen over
stances by some Lebanese officials regarding Riyadh's war against Shiite Huthi
rebels in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is leading an Arab coalition that launched an air
war on the Huthi rebels and their allies in Yemen on March 26. In April, Lebanon
received the first shipment of $3 billion worth of French arms under a
Saudi-financed deal to boost the country's defensive capabilities to combat
terror threats, along its northeastern border in particular. The deal was first
announced in December 2013. France is expected to deliver 250 combat and
transport vehicles, seven Cougar helicopters, three small Corvette warships and
a range of surveillance and communications equipment over four years as part of
the $3 billion (2.8 billion-euro) modernization program. It is being entirely
funded by Saudi Arabia, which is keen to see Lebanon's army defend its borders
against jihadist groups, particularly the Islamic State group and al-Nusra
Front. The contract also promises seven years of training for the 70,000-strong
Lebanese army and 10 years of equipment maintenance. “The army operation carried
out in Dar al-Wassa in West Bekaa two days ago has proven that the army will not
allow crime and kidnapping cells to flourish. They will be hunted down,” the
source added. It assured that operations will carry on in the said area because
the security situation has deteriorated to “unacceptable levels in Deir al-Ahmar,
Baalbek and the neighboring area.” One soldier was killed and four troops were
wounded in a clash that erupted on Monday with members of the Jaafar family in
the Bekaa area of Dar al-Wasaa following an army raid.
Bekaa Man Killed in Landmine Blast near Syria's Border
Naharnet/December 30/15/A 44-year-old Lebanese man was killed Wednesday by a
landmine blast in the outskirts of the Bekaa town of Maaraboun near Syria's
border, state-run National News Agency reported. Earlier media reports had said
the blast was caused by a shell fired from an unknown place. “A military expert
confirmed that the citizen Hikmat Abdul Raouf Moussa, 44, was killed by the
explosion of a landmine planted in Maaraboun's outskirts near the Syrian
border,” state-run National News Agency said. The town borders the Syrian town
of Sirghaya. “The victim was a father of five who worked as a passenger van
driver,” NNA said. Several Bekaa towns have repeatedly come under rocket attacks
from Syria in recent years. The attacks were claimed by extremist militant
groups who argued that their action was in retaliation to Hizbullah's military
intervention in Syria.
Jumblat Travels to Cairo on 'Non-Political' Trip
Naharnet/December 30/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat
traveled to Egypt on Tuesday on a visit that extends to the end of the current
week, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. It said that the trip does
not have a political agenda. PSP sources told the daily: “Consultations with the
Egyptian leadership are always open and they are aimed at keeping touch with the
Arab world and finding out what is being planned for us in light of the Syrian
and Yemeni conflicts.” Jumblat had hoped ahead of his departure from Beirut that
the new year would witness the election of a president, which would restore
normalcy at state institutions.
Israel Army Chief Inspects Golan Front amid Tensions with
Hizbullah
Naharnet/December 30/15/Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot toured the
Syrian frontier in the occupied Golan Heights on Wednesday amid high tensions
with Hizbullah that followed the assassination of top operative Samir al-Quntar.
Northern Command chief Aviv Kochavi and Galilee Division commander Amir Baram
accompanied Eisenkot on his tour, the website of Israel's Yediot Aharonot
newspaper reported. The Israeli army has “taken heed of Hizbullah Secretary
General (Sayyed) Hassan Nasrallah's recent warnings in the wake of the targeted
killing of Samir Quntar, which Nasrallah and others attributed to Israel,” the
website quoted Israeli army sources as saying. "We take Nasrallah's statements
in his speeches very seriously and are preparing for them," said the sources but
added that "Hizbullah also takes what we say seriously."On Monday, the Israeli
army carried out a military drill in the occupied Shebaa Farms. “A series of
explosions were heard in the towns of al-Orqoub during a maneuver for the
Israeli enemy's army on the eastern peripheries of the occupied Shebaa Farms,”
Lebanon's National News Agency reported. Tensions surged between Israel and
Hizbullah in recent days after the party accused Israel's air force of carrying
out a raid that killed Samir al-Quntar near Damascus. On Sunday, Hizbullah chief
Nasrallah reiterated a pledge that his group will retaliate to the
assassination. “The retaliation to Samir's assassination will inevitably come,”
Nasrallah vowed, noting that the timing and place of the response is now in the
hands of Hizbullah's fighters and military commanders. “The Israelis are hiding
like rats along the border … The Israelis are worried and they should be worried
-- along the border and inside Israel. Their threats will not benefit them,”
Nasrallah said. Hizbullah played a key role in Quntar's release from prison
after he had spent 30 years in Israeli jails, becoming known as the
longest-serving Arab prisoner. Shortly after his release, Quntar joined
Hizbullah. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said he became "head of the
Syrian Resistance for the Liberation of the Golan," a group launched two years
ago by Hizbullah in the Syrian region, most of which Israel seized in the 1967
Middle East war.
Saudi anti-terrorism coalition raises
eyebrows in Lebanon
Sami Nader/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Saudi Arabia's recent decision to launch the Islamic Military Alliance
immediately prompted a plethora of both supportive and hostile reactions in
Lebanon. The terrorism-fighting coalition supposedly includes Lebanon and 33
other countries, but excludes Iran, Syria and Iraq. Representatives of several
countries said they were unaware they had been enlisted as coalition members
when it was announced Dec. 15.
As some parties in Lebanon supported the step — such as the Future Movement, a
Sunni force allied with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — others such as the
pro-Iran Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement rushed to object. This
deepened the already heated domestic division between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi
parties in Lebanon. It has also heated up the Lebanese political scene and
weakened the government, in light of the different ministerial stances on the
Saudi initiative. Lebanon is still far from achieving a democratic debate that
strictly focuses on its own national interests and not that of its sponsors,
whether Iran or Saudi Arabia. While some Arab and international countries such
as Britain, Turkey and Egypt officially confirmed their support for the
Saudi-led alliance — even Moscow announced that it would “examine” the Islamic
military coalition — Lebanon failed to take a unified official stance regarding
the initiative.The Lebanese Foreign Ministry issued an official statement Dec.
15 saying it had "no knowledge of the topic and was by no means consulted.” The
statement argued that what happened “impinges on both Lebanon and the Foreign
Ministry prerogatives.”
However, the next day, Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam welcomed the
initiative and said, “Lebanon is at the forefront of the confrontation with
terrorism. Its army, forces and security apparatuses are fighting a daily battle
against terrorist groups.” Kataeb Party representative and Labor Minister Sejaan
Azzi said Dec. 16, “Lebanon is a secular state that can join neither an Islamic
nor a Christian coalition.”Minister of the Displaced Alice Chabtini said in a
Dec. 15 radio interview with Voice of Lebanon that she was not informed of
“Lebanon's decision to join the military Islamic coalition.” Chabtini is a close
associate of former President Michel Suleiman, a general who staunchly believes
Lebanon needs to distance itself from regional conflicts. Just a few hours after
the coalition was announced, pro-Riyadh stances came in. Saad Hariri, leader of
the predominantly Sunni Future Movement, said in a press release the “step is
historic” and aims to confront a “political, security and intellectual dilemma
threatening both the Islamic existence and the Islamic coexistence with the
international community.” Hariri praised the Saudi leadership.
In a striking contrast, Hezbollah said Dec. 17 that the coalition was formed
“hastily and in a suspicious way, which raises many questions.” Iran-supported
Hezbollah, which accused Saudi Arabia of spreading "extremist and radical
terrorist ideology," also questioned the kingdom's competence to lead the
coalition.
This is a brief account of the stances that support either Saudi Arabia or Iran,
in light of the conflict playing out in Yemen, Syria and Iraq between these two
regional powers. Regardless of that conflict, shouldn't Lebanon be interested in
such a coalition, especially considering that terrorism is threatening the
country once again? The explosion that rocked the southern suburb of Burj el-Barajneh
on Nov. 12 is convincing evidence of this threat. Hezbollah, the most critical
opponent of the initiative, is the most vulnerable to the threat, be it in its
battles in Syria or in the bloody bombings targeting its popular strongholds
like those that took place in Haret Hreik in December 2014, or Bir el-Abed in
July 2013.
Gen. Khalil Helou, a retired Lebanese army officer, told Al-Monitor it would not
be wise to ignore the Saudi initiative. Given Lebanon’s state of war with
terrorism, he said it would be in the country's best interest “if Saudi Arabia
spearheaded this confrontation," especially considering Saudi Arabia’s Sunni,
Druze and Christian allies in Lebanon. Amid boiling sectarianism and Sunni
extremism, Helou noted that Saudi Arabia represents moderate Sunnis. According
to Helou, there is no doubt that Saudi Arabia aims to stop the Islamic State
from mobilizing Sunnis. So far, IS has exploited the Sunni feeling of
suppression and marginalization. (It is worth noting that the suicide bomber who
conducted the Jabal Mohsen attack on Jan. 10 was a Sunni Lebanese recruited by
IS.)
“Only a Sunni power can confront the Sunni extremist forces. Any other method
will only deepen the sectarian turmoil and pave the way for an extremist wave,”
Helou said. The military expert concluded by saying that being hostile to Saudi
Arabia and launching campaigns against it is not appropriate, especially since
the Saudis in January 2014 offered the Lebanese army $3 billion to buy weapons.
Nearly $1 billion has already been spent, Helou said, adding, “Coordination with
Saudi Arabia is a must.”Helou may be right. Perhaps Lebanon ought to coordinate
with Saudi Arabia, given the latter’s support and its efforts in confronting the
common threat. Add to this that Saudi Arabia exemplifies Sunni moderation.
However, if full commitment to the coalition might be deemed as a bias toward
Saudi Arabia in light of the growing Saudi-Iran conflict, then a third, purely
Lebanese, option ought to be considered: Lebanon should fully coordinate with
the Islamic military coalition without joining it, in accordance with the
principle of neutrality that guarantees Lebanon’s stability. Will someone bring
this option to the table?
Canada congratulates Government of Iraq on
raising Iraqi flag in Ramadi
December 29, 2015 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today congratulated
the Government of Iraq on raising the Iraqi flag in Ramadi, Iraq:
“Canada commends the Iraqi government and armed forces for their perseverance in
liberating Ramadi. This advance is the latest in a series of losses for ISIL
[Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]. ISIL has been driven out of territories
and cities across the country by Iraqi forces, with support from the global
coalition, including Canada.
“Canada will support the Government of Iraq as it continues to clear Ramadi and
other ISIL-held areas.
“This remains a long fight, but the coalition’s strategy to build up capacity in
Iraq’s armed forces is succeeding. We will continue to stand with the Iraqi
people until ISIL is defeated.”
Concentrated Russian air strikes may open Syrian-Hizballah
door to Israeli border
DEBKAfile Special Report December 30, 2015
(Sheikh Maskin-Syrian Army’s 82nd Brigade base)
Israel’s military and political leaders became intensely anxious Tuesday, Dec.
29, when they saw how concentrated Russian air strikes were swiftly dislodging
anti-Assad rebels from southern Syria and beginning to open the door for the
Syrian and Hizballah armies to come dangerously close to the Israeli border.
debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report that Russian air strikes in
other parts of the country have tapered off. Instead, heavy Russian bombardments
are giving the combined Syrian-Hizballah force its first chance to recover
Sheikh Maskin, the southern town housing the Syrian Army’s 82nd Brigade which
has been passing from hand to hand for months. If the rebels lose that fierce
battle, the way will be clear for the combined pro-Assad force to advance on the
two key southern towns, Deraa and Quneitra on the Golan. The rebel groups
assaulted by the Russian air force Tuesday included moderate, pro-Western,
pro-Israeli militias, such as the Southern Front and the First Column. Both
suffered heavy casualties. IDF unease as a result of Russia’s aerial
intervention in the fighting in southern Syria is rising in proportion to the
current military tensions with Hizballah. If the Lebanese Shiite terrorists
manage to get the late Samir Quntar’s anti-Israel terror Front for the
Liberation of Golan up and running, the Israeli air force would be severely
hampered in launching its own strikes against this enemy by the dozens of
Russian bombers using the same patch of sky without pause. On the face of it,
Moscow and Jerusalem make a show of their smooth air force collaboration in
Syrian air space. But this picture is wide of the situation: The Russian air
force omitted to notify Israel ahead of its massive bombardment close to its
border Tuesday. Some Israeli official circles suspect that Moscow is
deliberately bringing Israel under pressure to accept a deal for southern Syria.
One of President Vladimir Putin’s main objects from the outset of Russian’s
military buildup in Syria was to eradicate the rebels in the South and the
threat they posed to the Assad regime in Damascus. More than once, Putin
suggested to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that they work out a
Russian-Israeli deal for that part of Syria. The Israeli leader was
unresponsive, mainly because Israel is bound by prior understandings to
coordination with the US, Jordan and moderate Syrian rebel groups. A deal with
Moscow would counter those understandings. However, The concentrated air strikes
in the border region is intended by the Kremlin, according to some views, not
just to push the rebels out, but to twist Israel’s arm for settling the issue
with Moscow.
U.N. Offers to Help Iraqi Refugees Return to
Ramadi
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
offered Wednesday to help Iraq restore basic services to Ramadi and allow
refugees to quickly return to the city after it was recaptured from jihadists.
Ban made the offer during a telephone conversation with Iraqi Prime Minister
Haider al-Abadi who visited Ramadi after his forces drove out Islamic State
fighters. Describing the recapture of Ramadi as "an important victory," Ban
"stressed the need for measures to be taken to restore the rule of law as well
as basic services in Ramadi as to allow for the return of internally displaced
persons as soon as possible."He offered U.N. support, said a statement from his
spokesman. Iraqi officials on Wednesday described widespread destruction in
Ramadi from months of fighting with more than 3,000 homes ruined and roadside
bombs and other explosive devices strewn across the city. Ban also expressed
concern over the abduction of Qatari nationals in Iraq in December and urged
Abadi "to do everything possible to ensure their prompt and safe return."The 26
Qatari nationals were on a falconry expedition in southern Iraq when they were
abducted at their camp by gunmen who turned up in dozens of pick-up trucks.
Among those kidnapped are members of the Qatari royal family. Ban said the group
included children.
Bahrain F-16 Crashes in Saudi near Yemen Border as Rebels
Fire Ballistic Missile
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/A Bahraini fighter jet taking part
in the Saudi-led coalition battling rebel forces in Yemen crashed Wednesday in
Saudi Arabia due to a "technical error," the alliance said. The F-16 jet crashed
in the kingdom's southwestern region of Jazan near the border with Yemen, the
coalition said in a statement on the official SPA news agency. The Bahrain
Defense Force general command confirmed that the jet crashed "while carrying out
its national duty in defending the southern borders" of Saudi Arabia. The pilot
was "saved and is in good health," it said, adding that the plane's wreckage had
been found and that an investigation had been launched. The crash comes a day
after Bahrain said that three of its soldiers had died "in an incident" along
the Saudi border with Yemen. It did not say how or when they had died. Eight
Bahraini troops have been killed as part of the coalition, which was launched by
Saudi Arabia in March to tackle Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen. The Bahraini
jet is the second coalition F-16 to crash after a Moroccan plane went down
during a mission over Yemen in May. Its pilot was later found dead and his body
was returned home. The coalition said that crash had been caused by a technical
fault or human error, and it denied rebel claims that they downed the plane. The
rebel sabanews.net website said meanwhile that insurgents fired a "ballistic
missile" early Wednesday on the southern Saudi port of Jizan, which they claimed
"precisely hit its target."But the coalition said that Saudi Arabia's defence
forces safely intercepted the missile, destroying the warhead as well as its
launcher in Yemen, according to a statement on SPA. The rebels have intensified
rocket attacks across the Saudi border during the past week, prompting the
coalition to threaten severe reprisals. The alliance has been backing forces
loyal to Yemeni President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi's internationally recognized
government with air strikes, ground troops, and weaponry, in addition to
training. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which play key roles in the
coalition, have lost the most troops in the campaign. One Qatari soldier has
also died. More than 80 people, including civilians, have been killed on Saudi
Arabia's southern front with Yemen since March. Sudan has also deployed troops
in Yemen while Kuwaiti media reported this week that the emirate has decided to
send ground forces.
Brussels Cancels New Year's Festivities over Terror Threat,
Detains New Suspect
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/The annual New Year's Eve
festivities and fireworks in the heart of Brussels have been canceled for
security reasons, the mayor announced on Wednesday, as the Belgian capital
remains on high alert over a possible terror threat. "Unfortunately we have been
forced to cancel the fireworks and all that was planned for tomorrow (Thursday)
evening and that would have brought a lot of people together in the center of
Brussels, following a risk analysis by the crisis center," mayor Yvan Mayeur
told Belgian broadcaster RTBF. Last year, some 100,000 people turned out to
watch the traditional New Year's Eve fireworks display at the Place de Brouckere.
Mayeur said in the current circumstances it wasn't possible to "guarantee that
we can check everyone coming to the event". "It's better not to take any risks,"
he added.
The Belgian capital, home to the headquarters of NATO and the European Union,
has been on high alert since the November 13 gun and suicide bombing attacks in
Paris that left 130 dead. A key suspect in the Paris attacks, Belgian-born
fugitive Salah Abdeslam, is believed to have fled to Brussels in the hours after
the massacre, which was claimed by the Islamic State jihadist group. The Belgian
authorities have so far detained nine men in the case including four accused of
helping Abdeslam get away from the crime scenes. Earlier Wednesday, Belgian
police held a man for questioning following a new search in the troubled
Brussels immigrant neighborhood of Molenbeek in connection with the Paris
attacks. Earlier this week, Belgian police arrested two people suspected of
plotting attacks in Brussels during New Year festivities, with officers seizing
military-style training uniforms, computer hardware and Islamic State propaganda
material.
Israel Plays Down U.S. Spying Scandal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/An Israeli minister and close ally
of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought Wednesday to play down revelations
the United States monitored the premier's private communications. "I didn't fall
off my chair from The Wall Street Journal report," Yuval Steinitz, minister of
energy and a former intelligence minister, said on public radio. The WSJ said
Tuesday that the U.S. National Security Agency monitored Netanyahu's
conversations as he campaigned against the nuclear deal with Iran that was
eventually agreed in July. In March, Israel denied reports in the newspaper that
its security forces spied on the negotiations between Tehran and major powers.
"Israel does not spy on or in the United States; we adhere to that rule, and one
could expect others to do the same," said Steinitz, who was in charge of the
Iranian file while intelligence minister between 2013 and 2015. "But we are not
naive. We know that countries -- even friendly ones -- try to collect
intelligence on us, and we conduct ourselves accordingly," he said. Steinitz did
not mention the case of American Jonathan Pollard, whom U.S. authorities freed
in November after he had spent 30 years in jail for spying for Israel. He
reaffirmed the friendship between Israel and the United States, "our greatest
and most important friend," and stressed the two countries' "excellent
cooperation" on intelligence matters. "I don't think it caused us damage," he
said of the WSJ report. Netanyahu's office, as well as the spokesman of the
foreign ministry, declined to comment on the report. For its part, the White
House has not denied the Tuesday report but emphasized the depth of its
relationship with Israel.
Thousands of Homes Destroyed in Iraq's Ramadi
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/Months of fighting in Ramadi have
caused extensive destruction, officials said Wednesday, warning that it was too
soon for civilians to return to the Iraqi city after its recapture from
jihadists. Iraqi forces declared victory on Sunday night in the Ramadi battle
after wresting back control of the city's central government complex from the
Islamic State group. Some jihadist fighters have yet to be flushed out, mostly
on the eastern edge of the city, and many reconquered areas have yet to be fully
cleared of roadside bombs and booby traps. "There is extensive destruction in
the city as a result of terrorist activity and military operations," said
Ibrahim al-Osej, a member of the Ramadi district council. IS fighters had laid
thousands of explosive devices across Ramadi as part of their defense against an
offensive that was launched on December 22 by elite federal forces. The U.S.-led
coalition supporting the Iraqi effort to reclaim the city, which was lost to IS
in May, has also carried out around 630 air strikes in the Ramadi area since
July. "Preliminary estimates show that more than 3,000 homes have been
completely destroyed" in Ramadi, which lies around 100 kilometers (60 miles)
west of Baghdad, Osej said. He said that the figure would grow because
assessments could not be immediately carried out in some neighborhoods that had
not been cleared of mines. "Thousands of other homes have suffered varying
degrees of damage," Osej said. "All water, electricity, sewage and other
infrastructure -- such as bridges, government facilities, hospitals and schools
-- have suffered some degree of damage," he said. In the center of Ramadi, which
lies on the Euphrates river, "there are five bridges in various states of
destruction," U.S. operations officer Major Michael Filanowski said Wednesday.
"For all of them at least the span has dropped," he said, adding that he
estimated it would take at least weeks to repair them. Civilians began fleeing
Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, two years ago when tensions escalated
there, and the exodus has continued until this week. A few hundred families who
had remained holed up in their homes during the fighting were evacuated by the
army on Tuesday and taken to a facility in Habbaniyah, east of Ramadi. The
residents of Anbar account for more than a third of the 3.2 million people who
have been displaced by conflict in Iraq since the start of 2014, according to
the International Organization for Migration.
1 mln migrants came to Europe by sea this year: U.N.
The Associated Press, Berlin Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The U.N. refugee agency
said Wednesday that the number of migrants who’ve arrived in Europe by sea this
year now tops 1 million. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees’ announcement
came only a week after the International Organization for Migration said the
total number of people arriving in Europe this year had topped a million -
including 34,215 who arrived across land borders. UNHCR said 1,000,573 people
have now arrived by boat during the year - 844,176 of them landing in Greece and
152,700 in Italy. Spain reported 3,592 arrivals and Malta 105. The count is
based on police and coast guard data and estimates stemming from refugee
registration in Greece; data and estimates from government, police and UNHCR in
Italy; and police and government data from Spain and Malta. Of those who
arrived, 49 percent came from Syria and 21 percent from Afghanistan. Another
3,735 people were counted as dead or missing, UNHCR said. Germany has received
more migrants than any other European Union nation - including, in the early
part of 2015, large numbers from southeastern European nations such as Albania,
Kosovo and Serbia. Bavaria’s social affairs minister, Emilia Mueller, said
Wednesday that nearly 1.1 million migrants have arrived in Germany this year,
most of them via Bavaria, news agency dpa reported. She underscored the Bavarian
state government’s insistence that “we now need more urgently than ever an
effective limitation of immigration.”
Two blasts hit Kurdish-controlled city in Syria
Reuters, Beirut Thursday, 31 December 2015/Twin suicide bomb blasts hit two
restaurants in a Kurdish-controlled city in northeastern Syria on Wednesday,
killing or wounding dozens of people, a Kurdish official and a group monitoring
the war said. The explosions took place in Qamishli, near the Turkish border,
the Kurdish YPG militia's Redur Xelil told Reuters. He said it had most likely
been carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) which the YPG is
fighting in Syria's northeast, and that dozens were believed to have been killed
or wounded. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least
30 people had been killed or wounded.
Baghdad, Ankara bicker over Turkish troops in Iraq
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Iraqi Prime Minister
Haider al-Abadi said on Wednesday that Turkey had not respected a commitment to
withdraw its troops from northern Iraq. He reaffirmed, during a call to the
Turkish prime ministers, that he refuses any military Turkish presence in Iraq
without the knowledge and consent of Baghdad. Abadi said in a statement that a
Turkish delegation to Iraq had promised to announce upon returning to Ankara
that Turkey would withdraw its troops, “but the Turkish government has not
respected the agreement and we request that the Turkish government announce
immediately that it will withdraw from Iraqi territory.”However, Reuters quoted
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as saying “if Baghdad wants to use force,
it should be against ISIS after his Iraqi counterpart threatened possible
military action over Turkish troops deployed in northern Iraq. Speaking during
an interview on NTV, Davutoglu acknowledged there had been "miscommunication"
over the troop deployment. He said that Ankara respected Iraqi sovereignty but
added that Baghdad is not in control one third of its own territory. Turkey
announced earlier that it had begun withdrawing troops in a bid to soothe a
bitter row with Baghdad and following a call from U.S. President Barack Obama.
“Taking into account the sensitivities on the Iraqi side... Turkey will continue
the process it has already begun to withdraw its troops stationed” near Mosul,
the Turkish foreign ministry said. Earlier this month, Turkey deployed troops to
a base in Nineveh province where it has a long-running training program for
forces battling the ISIS group. Ankara insisted the deployment was routine and
necessary to protect the trainers, while Baghdad said it was unauthorized and
protested to the U.N. Security Council. with Reuters
Saudi says Syria rebel chief killing doesn’t serve peace
AFP, Riyadh Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The killing of a Syrian rebel chief in
an air raid last week does not serve the peace process in the war-ravaged
country, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Tuesday. Zahran Alloush, the
head of the Saudi-backed Jaish al-Islam, the foremost rebel group in Damascus
province, was killed on Friday in a strike claimed by Syria’s government.
“Attempts to assassinate leaderships fighting Daesh do not serve the peace
process and (efforts) to achieve a political solution in Syria,” Jubeir said,
using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group.
“I don’t know what the Russians have in mind,” he told reporters, in reference
to the killing. The minister was speaking at a joint news conference in Riyadh
with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. Jaish al-Islam has fought off
both Syrian government forces and ISIS militants in its Eastern Ghouta bastion,
east of Damascus. It even agreed to eventual peace talks with the regime of
Bashar al-Assad, during an unprecedented meeting in Riyadh this month of various
Syrian opposition groups. Analysts have warned that Alloush’s killing could also
thwart potential peace talks between the regime and the opposition, which the
U.N. announced could begin next month. Saudi Arabia is a key backer of Syrian
rebel groups battling Assad’s regime, and Jubeir reiterated previous demands
that Assad be removed from power. Cavusoglu echoed his counterpart’s calls. “Our
views on Syria match. We cannot reach a solution with Assad’s presence,” he
said. Separately, he said the majority of Russia’s air strikes on Syria are not
targeting ISIS. “If you are really willing to confront IS, then let us agree and
eliminate it,” he said, addressing Russia which he accused of having “goals
other than eliminating ISIS.” A bitter diplomatic row flared between Moscow and
Ankara, which back different sides in Syria’s war, after Turkey shot down a
Russian fighter jet on its border with Syria at the end of November. Russia says
its armed forces have conducted 5,240 sorties in Syria since launching its
bombing campaign on September 30. Moscow had accused Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and his family of involvement in the illegal oil trade with ISIS
militants, claims Ankara has strongly denied. Erdogan arrived on Tuesday in
Saudi Arabia, where he held talks with King Salman. The leaders discussed mutual
relations, regional developments, as well as “cooperation in confronting
terrorism and radicalism,” said Jubeir. They also discussed the 34-nation
military coalition against “terrorism” announced by the kingdom this month, he
said. Both leaders also spoke of their “willingness” to form a joint strategic
coordination council that would supervise cooperation in the fields of security,
military, politics, economy, as well as energy and culture, he added.
Saudi envoy to Iraq repeats call for militants to surrender
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Saudi ambassador to
Iraq Thamer al-Sabhan told Al-Arabiya News that calls for Saudis involved in the
fighting alongside extremist groups in Iraq - such as the ISIS and al-Nusra
Front - to hand themselves over, is still on. He added that if these fighters
hand themselves over, this will be taken into consideration during litigation
and trials. Sabhan's statements come after Iraqi forces launched operations to
liberate ISIS-controlled areas, such as the city of Diyala and Ramadi, a city in
the Sunni-majority Anbar province, and after ISIS fighters fled and were
besieged after cutting supplies to them and their families. "The call (on these
fighters to hand themselves) has been on for years. Saudi Arabia treats those
who hand themselves over differently than those arrested, and it takes this into
consideration during trials. Saudi Arabia opens its arms to whomever desires to
return home and the Saudi embassy in Iraq offers all its services to receive
them, get them out of conflict zones and free them of ISIS' grip," the envoy
said. Sabhan who is currently in Iraq with his diplomatic team also said so far
they have not received any requests neither via direct communication with those
who desire to return home nor via the Iraqi government. He added that ISIS
prevented fighters from handing themselves over by killing them. Regarding
Iraq's decision to participate in the Islamic military alliance which the Saudi
kingdom recently formed, Sabhan said the issue has not yet been discussed with
the Iraqi relevant authorities via the embassy. "We know well that the Iraqis
have suffered from terrorism for years. Hopefully, we cooperate with Iraq in the
field of combating terrorism."
Turkey arrests 2 ISIS suspects over NYE attack plot
AFP, Ankara Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Turkish police have arrested in Ankara
two suspected suicide bombers linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) militant group who were plotting an attack on New Year’s Eve in the
capital, a Turkish official told AFP on Wednesday. “They are suspected of being
affiliated with ISIS and were planning an attack on the New Year in Ankara,” the
official said, asking not to be named. Counter-terror police arrested the two
people in the Mamak district in the outskirts of the capital, the private NTV
television reported. Turkey is on high security alert after 103 people were
killed on October 10 when two suicide bombers ripped through a crowd of peace
activists in Ankara, the worst attack in modern Turkey's history. That attack
was blamed on ISIS, like two other deadly strikes in the country's
Kurdish-dominated southeast earlier in the summer. Turkish authorities have over
the past months cracked down on the group's so-called “sleeper cells” throughout
the country. The arrests come a month after authorities foiled another plot to
stage a major attack in Istanbul on the same day as the deadly gun and suicide
attacks in Paris that claimed nearly 130 lives.
Emergency measures as Tehran records 18th day of bad air
AFP, Tehran Wednesday, 30 December 2015/More than two weeks of heavy pollution
led Iranian officials to ban all outdoor sport and impose new traffic
restrictions on Wednesday as persistent cold weather exacerbated Tehran’s air
quality problems. In the worst concerted period of pollution for three years,
primary schools and nurseries were closed and new car exclusion zones imposed in
the capital. Tehran’s air quality index averaged 159 on Wednesday, up two from
the previous day, and more than three times the World Health Organization’s
maximum advised level of between zero and 50. One area in northeastern Tehran
peaked at 238. The official IRNA news agency reported that it was the 18th
straight day of dangerously bad air while newspapers quoted officials casting
blame on each other for the problem and failure to tackle it. “Our preference
was to close all schools but the education ministry insisted on keeping high
schools open because of final term exams,” said Mohammad Heydarzadeh, secretary
of Tehran’s emergency air pollution committee. The cold weather is causing
climate inversion - where emissions from car exhausts hang in the air rather
than rising into the atmosphere above. A decade-long central restriction zone
based on car number plates was in place across the city on Wednesday, traffic
police announced. Vehicles with plates ending in an odd number can’t go out on
Saturday, Monday and Wednesday, while cars with even numbered plates are banned
on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. Sand and cement factories around the capital
are banned from operating until Friday, the end of the Iranian week, Heydarzadeh
said. All outdoor sport activities are banned, he added, including professional
football league matches. Exhaust fumes from the five million cars and almost as
many motorcycles that ply Tehran’s roads account for 80 percent of its
pollution, officials say. Two permanent zones of traffic restrictions introduced
in 1979 and 2005 have failed to rectify Tehran’s poor air quality. While Tehran
is the epicentre the pollution also closed primary schools in other major cities
including Isfahan, Qom, Arak and Tabriz. Weather forecasters predicted that air
quality would improve after expected rainfall on Wednesday evening.
Bahraini F-16 jet crashes in Saudi near Yemen border
Staff Writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/According to the
coalition forces in Yemen, a Bahrain F-16 fighter jet has crashed on Wednesday
in southern Saudi Arabia close to the Yemen border in Jizan. The fighter jet had
experienced technical failure but its pilot has survived the crash. A statement
by the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia and released by the Saudi Press Agency
said that to "the Bahraini air force pilot participating in the coalition
managed to escape after his plane crashed in Jizan region on Wednesday morning
after a technical malfunction." Bahrain has taken part in the Saudi-led
coalition that has been bombing Iran-allied Houthi militias for nine months, and
scores of ground forces from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia
have been killed since the start of the conflict. In a separate incident,
Bahrain's official news agency BNA reported on Tuesday that three of its
servicemen were killed along Saudi Arabia's southern border.
Bahrain jails 29 over bomb attack on police
Staff Writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/At least 29 people in
Bahrain were handed down jail sentences ranging from five years to life
imprisonment on terror charges on Wednesday, according to Bahrain News Agency.
Terror Crime Prosecution Chief Advocate, General Ahmed Al-Hammadi, confirmed
that the High Criminal Court handed out the sentences. According to the news
report: “The convictions relate to attempted murder of policemen, using and
possessing explosives and weapons, rioting, and receiving and providing
explosives, training in order to commit terrorist crimes.”Al-Hammadi stated that
Bahrain’s High Criminal Court revoked the citizenship of two individuals and
ordered twenty seven defendants to pay heavy fines for damages. The suspects
were charged for an incident that took place Dec. 19, 2014, when the individuals
in question detonated an explosive device with the intent of murdering
policemen. The explosion caused injuries to security personnel and damage to
patrol vehicles.
Saudi Ministy of Labor to count children of non-Saudi
fathers as citizens
Saudi Gazette, Riyadh Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of
Labor has clarified that the children of Saudi women from non-Saudi husbands
will be considered as citizens under the Nitaqat Saudization program whether
their mothers are dead or alive. “According to a decision taken by the Council
of Ministers in 2012 (1433H), the children of Saudi women married to foreign men
are entitled to have certain rights. These rights include allowing them to work
in private sector firms without transferring their sponsorship, considering them
as Saudi citizens in education and medical care, and counting them Saudi
citizens with regard to Nitaqat program in the private sector,” the ministry
said in a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency. The ministry denied press
reports that these children will not be considered as citizens in the Nitaqat
program after the death of their Saudi mothers. “As long the son of a Saudi
woman from a non-Saudi husband lives in the Kingdom, he will be counted as a
Saudi citizen in Nitaqat program whether his mother is dead or alive. The
ministry follows this directive strictly ever since it has been adopted by the
Council of Ministers,” the ministry said. The clarification comes in the wake of
a recent statement from Deputy Minister Ahmed Al-Humaidan, saying that children
of Saudi women from non-Saudi husbands will not be considered as citizens in the
Nitaqat program after the death of their mothers. When the mother dies, her
offspring from a non-Saudi father will automatically lose the privilege of being
Saudi citizens in the Nitaqat program, he said. There are 700,000 Saudi women
who are married to non-Saudis, representing around 10 percent of the overall
population, according to a Ministry of Justice report issued in 2012.
U.S. chides Russia over civilian deaths in Syria
The Associated Press, Washington Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The United States
criticized Russia on Tuesday for killing hundreds of civilians in airstrikes in
Syria and accused Moscow of undermining hopes for a cease-fire between Bashar
Assad’s government and leading rebel groups. The surprisingly sharp critique
came as Washington banked on Moscow’s help to launch a Syrian peace process that
would allow both countries to focus on defeating ISIS. Negotiations between
representatives of Assad’s government and the opposition were expected to start
next month, though hurdles remain. Amid reports of indiscriminate killing by
Russia, including the use of cluster bombs, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier this week to share his
concerns. U.S. officials wouldn’t describe Lavrov’s response. “The reports of
Russian attacks on Syrian civilians are extremely disturbing,” State Department
spokesman Mark Toner told reporters Tuesday. Activist accounts suggest Russian
strikes “killed hundreds of civilians, including first responders” and “hit
medical facilities, schools and markets,” he said. The campaign uprooted some
130,000 Syrians in October and the first half of November alone, Toner said. An
Amnesty International report last week cited evidence of Russian use of cluster
munitions and unguided bombs in populated residential areas. The group denounced
what it called Russia’s “shameful failure” to acknowledge civilian killings.
Russia immediately rejected the claims, calling them “clichés and fakes.”While
Toner didn’t endorse all of the findings directly, he said the U.S. has “seen a
marked and troubling increase in reports of civilian casualties since Russia
commenced its air campaign there” in late September.
U.S. ‘still spying’ on Netanyahu communications
AFP, Washington Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The United States continues to spy
on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s communications despite promising
to curtail the hacking of its allies, The Wall Street Journal reported on
Tuesday. Contacted by AFP, the White House did not deny the report, which cites
several serving and former U.S. officials, but stressed the importance of its
ongoing close ties with Israel. The Israeli embassy refused to comment. Two
years ago, after rogue intelligence contractor Edward Snowden revealed the vast
extent of the National Security Agency’s online surveillance, President Barack
Obama promised to limit spying on U.S. allies. Germany’s Chancellor Angela
Merkel had been embarrassed by the revelation that her cellphone had been
monitored and other allies expressed private concerns about the breadth of NSA
monitoring. But, according to Journal report, Obama decided there was a
“compelling national security purpose” in continuing to monitor some leaders,
including Netanyahu and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The U.S.
administration decided not to remove or disable the “cyber-implants” it had
secreted on foreign communications systems, as they would be hard to replace.
Instead, the report says, Obama ordered that some of the hacked systems used by
close allies would not be routinely monitored by the NSA, while others would
continue to be mined for intel. “Going dark on Bibi? Of course we wouldn’t do
that,” one senior U.S. official told the Journal, speaking on condition of
anonymity. In Netanyahu’s case, Washington was concerned that Israel was itself
monitoring U.S. negotiations with Iran and might try to derail the effort to
reach a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.
Israel arrests Jews over celebration of toddler death
AFP, Jerusalem Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Israeli police said on Tuesday they
have arrested four Jewish men suspected of being among gun-waving extremists
filmed celebrating the murder of a Palestinian toddler in a firebombing. They
were shown in a wedding video, broadcast last week by an Israeli news channel,
which spread online and drew strong condemnation from Israeli politicians
including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Four people have been arrested
until now,” police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld told AFP. “An investigation was
opened last week and, during this week, four people were arrested and are
scheduled to appear tomorrow morning in front of a Jerusalem court” for a remand
hearing, he said. “That’s in connection with the weapons that were at the
wedding and other things.” He gave no further details, but Israeli public radio
said among those arrested were the groom, a soldier who lent his assault rifle
to another reveller and a former activist of the outlawed Kach extremist
movement allegedly shown brandishing a weapon and calling for revenge against
Arabs. The video showed guests dancing with guns, knives and at least one unlit
Molotov cocktail, while slashing a picture of the toddler killed in the
firebombing of his home that also fatally wounded his parents and was blamed on
Jewish extremists. Media reported that the groom had previously been questioned
over acts of “Jewish terrorism” while other guests were friends or relatives of
suspects arrested over the July attack. Netanyahu called the video “shocking”
and said it showed “the true face of a group that constitutes a danger to
Israeli society and to the security of Israel”. In recent weeks, Israel has
arrested a number of suspected Jewish extremists over the July 31 incident in
the West Bank village of Duma. The fire killed 18-month-old Ali Saad Dawabsha,
while his parents later died from severe burns. Ali’s four-year-old brother was
the sole survivor from the immediate family. So far, no one has been charged.
One of them, an 18-year-old settler, was put under house arrest on Tuesday after
weeks in the custody of the Shin Bet domestic security service, media reported.
He was ordered released on Monday, when prosecutors admitted that did not intend
to charge him over the Duma killings, but over a 2013 assault on a Palestinian.
He was held a further day while the prosecution appealed against his release.
Iranian navy test fires rockets near U.S.
carrier
AFP, Washington Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The Iranian navy test fired several
rockets near three Western warships including the USS Harry S Truman aircraft
carrier last week, a U.S. military official said on Tuesday. Though the rockets
were not fired toward any ship, their proximity to the warships - and several
commercial vessels - sparked concern. “We look at this firing so close to the
ships as highly provocative,” said the military official, who was not
immediately authorized to be named. The official confirmed details of an NBC
News report that said one rocket came within about 1,500 yards (meters) of the
USS Truman as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. A French frigate and the USS
Bulkeley destroyer were also in the area. The incident took place on December
26, shortly after the Iranian navy had announced via radio it was about to
conduct a live-fire exercise and warned ships to steer clear. The official said
the unguided rockets were fired from an Iranian navy “fast inshore attack craft”
that was in Omani waters.
The Western vessels did not need to take evasive action, the official said.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey to set up ‘strategic cooperation
council’: Saudi FM
Reuters, Riyadh Tuesday, 29 December 2015/Saudi Arabia and Turkey agreed on the
need to set up a “strategic cooperation council” to strengthen military,
economic and investment cooperation between the two countries, Saudi Foreign
Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Tuesday. “The meeting produced a desire to set
up a high-level strategic cooperation council between the two countries,” Jubeir
told a joint news conference with his Turkish counterpart after talks in the
Saudi capital, Riyadh, between Saudi King Abdullah and Turkish President Tayyip
Erdogan. He said the council will deal with security, military, economic, trade,
energy and investment between the two countries.
Turkey’s foreign policy prospects for 2016 not
so promising
Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
A Turkish saying roughly translates to “You can tell what will happen Thursday
by looking at Wednesday.” Viewed in this light, Turkey's 2015 foreign policy
problems may shed light on what it will face in 2016.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) could have moved cautiously,
given Turkey’s dangerous geostrategic place on the map. Instead, AKP's
Islamist/Sunni-based ideological orientation, and its overreaching ambitions
laced with an inflated sense of Turkey’s abilities, resulted in a growing crop
of conflicts between Turkey and its neighbors. One recent development in this
regard came in late November when Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet it said
had strayed into Turkish airspace while bombing Turkish-supported groups
fighting the regime in northern Syria. This left Russian President Vladimir
Putin fuming, accusing Turkey of “stabbing Russia in the back,” and shook
Turkish-Russian relations to the core. In the past, relations were carefully
calibrated to weather storms so as not to harm vast, mutual economic interests.
Those ties are now in tatters. The nosedive in relations with Russia is set to
complicate Ankara’s already difficult position in Syria and Iraq in 2016.
The downing of the Russian jet pushed Moscow into supporting Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad with greater determination, targeting anti-regime fighters with
greater ferocity. It also increased Russia’s desire to see Turkey play a minimal
role in international efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis.
Given the 18-month road map to resolve Syria's situation — a plan worked out in
Vienna earlier this month — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu are unlikely to achieve their long-lasting desire to see the
back of Assad in 2016. Meanwhile, the alliance against the Islamic State (IS)
between the United States and the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the umbrella
organization of the Syrian Kurds that Turkey sees as a “terrorist organization,”
is also likely to survive in 2016. The PYD's armed wing plays a significant role
in the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is making serious
advances against IS in northern Syria. Turkey could face a crisis early in 2016
when the SDF starts moving west of the Euphrates River. If this region comes
under Syrian Kurdish control in any way, the Kurds will gain a corridor linking
Kurdish northern Iraq with the Mediterranean Sea. Ankara has therefore declared
the Euphrates a red line.
But with US support for the Syrian Kurds, who are also being courted by Russia,
Ankara’s options to enforce that red line are limited. Turkey could try to
convince the United States to prevent such a development, which would have
negative consequences for the security and stability of Turkey, a NATO ally.
Washington is more likely, however, to urge Ankara to enter a dialogue with the
PYD, despite its links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is waging a
war for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey. The United States will also continue to
exhort the Syrian Kurds to refrain from actions that will give Ankara cause to
complain. Turkey’s failed attempt earlier in December to deploy troops in the
town of Bashiqa in Iraq near Mosul, also showed that Ankara does not have
Washington’s automatic support when it comes to its unilateral decisions
regarding Iraq, and that it is Washington that has leverage over Ankara.
Talking with Erdogan over the phone Dec. 18, US President Barack Obama insisted
that the Turkish troops be withdrawn, in line with Baghdad’s demands, and called
for Iraq’s sovereignty and territorial integrity to be respected. This was not
just a blow to Turkey’s prestige, but also to its plans of gaining a military
foothold in Iraq’s Sunni heartland. Ankara says it sent troops to Bashiqa to
protect the camp where Turkish military personnel have been training local
fighters against IS for months. But this clearly failed to allay doubts in the
region, and in Washington, about its true motives. This development weakened
Ankara’s hand in the region further, thus prompting new questions about the
AKP’s ability to pursue a coherent foreign policy. Many wondered how Turkey
could have assumed that deploying troops in Iraq without informing Baghdad would
not have consequences.
The AKP’s policies have left Turkey facing the United States in Iraq — where
Ankara also faces Russia and Iran — and facing Russia and Iran in Syria, where
it is not completely on the same page with the United States, either. None of
this suggests that Ankara’s influence in the region will improve. Aware of its
growing isolation, Ankara sped up its diplomatic efforts for a rapprochement
with Israel toward the end of 2015. While this could turn into a diplomatic
breakthrough for Ankara, the deal is far from done. There is no indication that
Israel is prepared to comply with Ankara’s demand that the Gaza blockade be
lifted. There is also the outstanding issue of whether Ankara will comply with
Israeli demands regarding Hamas, with which the AKP feels a close affinity.
Turkey’s ties with Europe in 2016 will be determined by the fight against
Islamic terrorism and the refugee crisis emanating from Syria. The EU-Turkey
summit in November resulted in a joyful declaration by Davutoglu that “a new
chapter had been opened in Turkey’s ties with Europe.” European leaders also
promised to help energize Ankara’s bid for EU membership.
But Turkey’s ties with Europe will be predicated on issues that have little to
do with Ankara’s EU bid. While more cooperation is expected on the issues of
Islamic terrorism and refugees, the European Union remains concerned about the
AKP’s Islamist/Sunni leanings and its less-than-democratic policies at home,
which are not expected to change in 2016. Soli Ozel, who lectures on foreign
policy at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University and is a columnist for the daily
Haberturk, is among those who believe that the AKP has only itself to blame for
this overall situation. “By aiming at targets way above its capacity at the
start of the Arab revolts, Turkey ended up condemning itself to a position that
will be considerably below its capacity,” Ozel said in a recent commentary. Taha
Akyol, a prominent columnist for the daily Hurriyet, is also among those who
believe AKP is the victim of its ambitions, shortsightedness and hubris in the
Middle East. “[AKP’s] extreme obsession with power has in recent years produced
authoritarianism at home, and a politically defiant tone abroad, especially
after the events following the Arab Spring,” Akyol wrote recently. He added that
statements from Ankara during this period “far exceeded Turkey’s power.”
The fact that Ankara went beyond its capacity in that way, while making its
Sunni leanings apparent, also shows there will be no role for Turkey as a
mediator or facilitator in any dispute in the region in 2016, especially ones
fueled by sectarian divisions. Akyol suggests that Turkey's increased dependence
on the West, in view of the crisis with Russia, and Turkey's effort to improve
ties with Israel could be signs that Ankara is moving toward more rational
approaches to foreign policy. Many argue, however, that this is wishful thinking
because the Islamist/Sunni-based ideological outlook is part and parcel of AKP’s
makeup, and is therefore unlikely to change. Retired Ambassador Unal Cevikoz, a
trustee and lecturer at Kadir Has University, has his own take on the topic.
Turkey will achieve real change only when it stops interfering in other
countries' domestic affairs and announcing "who should be running, or not
running neighboring countries," Cevikoz wrote recently in his column for the
daily Radikal.
Amid financial hardship, Erdogan looks to Qatar as 'rich
daddy'
Zülfikar Doğan/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
A series of controversial steps in the region has left Turkey increasingly
isolated in its neighborhood. As a result, the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
government has gone on a hunt for new “friends.” Normalizing ties with Israel is
now back on the agenda. The second door the government has knocked on is
Qatar's.Yet, even Qatar’s friendship could not stop the Arab League from
adopting a joint statement last week condemning the Turkish troop deployment in
Bashiqa, near Mosul, and urging Ankara to respect Iraq’s territorial integrity.
The deployment “is an assault on Iraqi sovereignty and a threat to Arab national
security,” the statement said, while Arab League deputy chief Ahmed Ben Heli
added that the Turkish troops “increased tumult in the region.”
Meanwhile, the AKP government seems to have postponed its claim of “neo-Ottoman
and regional leadership” by joining the Saudi-led Islamic coalition against
terrorism, while moving even closer to Qatar, a country with which Erdogan has
had warm ties for years. Snubbed by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the
Paris climate summit in early December, Erdogan flew directly to Doha for talks
with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The sides signed an agreement
for Turkey’s import of Qatari natural gas. Commenting on the agreement, Erdogan
said, “As you know, Qatar was planning to enter the liquefied natural gas [LNG]
sector in Turkey. They were exploring whether they could invest in Turkey in the
realm of LNG storage. Now a step forward has been taken on this issue.” As
energy cooperation with Qatar moves higher on Turkey’s agenda, Qatari
investments in Turkey are also noteworthy. A series of investments by Qatari
companies have cheered up the AKP government, alleviating the impact of foreign
capital flight from Turkey.
Since the Nov. 1 early elections, foreign investors have withdrawn some $1.5
billion from the Turkish stock and bond markets. The Qatar National Bank (QNB),
for its part, announced last week it was putting 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion)
in Finansbank, Turkey’s fifth-largest private bank. In 2013, the Commercial Bank
of Qatar had bought the majority shares of another Turkish lender, ABank, for
$460 million. Tuncay Ozilhan, the CEO of Turkey’s Anadolu Holding, which sold
the shares, would later comment “good chemistry” had been found with the
Qataris, adding, “We are now relaxed and comfy. A rich daddy makes one joyous
and easy.” The QNB’s acquisition of Finansbank is a move of economic and
financial significance for Turkey, coming as a morale booster both for the
government and the financial markets at a time when economic confidence indexes
have badly plunged. QNB CEO Ali Ahmed Al-Kuwari said in a statement that it was
looking forward to contributing to Turkey’s economic future and boosting QNB's
international activities.
The Turkish media has been another sector drawing remarkable Qatari investments.
Al Jazeera’s project to launch a Turkish-language TV channel has hit a dead end,
but the network maintains a Turkish-language news portal. The Qataris entered
the Turkish media sector in 2008 when one of the country’s largest media groups,
Sabah-ATV, in state receivership due to its owner’s unpaid bank debts, was
acquired by a partnership between Turkey’s Calik Holding — in which Erdogan’s
son-in-law Berat Albayrak, now energy minister, and his brother Serhat Albayrak
served as senior executives — and Qatar’s Lusail International Media Company.
The Qataris acquired 25% of the media group’s shares and put significant money
in Calik Holding. The Sabah-ATV group was later sold to businessmen close to
Erdogan in a controversial transaction, which figured prominently in the
corruption and bribery scandal that rocked the government in December 2013.The
boss of another pro-government media group, Star, has partnered with Qatar in
the defense industry sector. In 2013, the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF),
which runs companies taken into state receivership, sold two newspapers, two TV
channels and the BMC vehicle manufacturer — all seized from Cukurova Holding —
to Ethem Sancak, a Turkish businessman famous for saying he was "in love with
Erdogan." After buying BMC, which manufactures armored vehicles for the Turkish
army and police, Sancak sold half of the company’s shares to the Qatar Armed
Forces Industry Committee.
Most recently, the Bein group, an Al Jazeera affiliate, acquired Turkey’s
biggest satellite television provider, Digiturk, in what was the largest Qatari
investment in the Turkish media sector so far. The TMSF sold Digiturk, also a
former Cukurova asset, to the Qataris without asking for a tender and without
disclosing the financial terms of the deal. Digiturk, which holds the broadcast
rights of the Turkish soccer league, has 3.5 million subscribers and broadcasts
239 television channels. Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the CEO of the Qatari company and
president of French football club Paris Saint-Germain, called Digiturk’s
acquisition “a key milestone in our global expansion.” Additionally, Mayhoola
for Investments, a Qatari investment fund that owns Italian fashion house
Valentino, acquired a stake earlier this year in Boyner, one of Turkey’s leading
textile, ready-to-wear and retail companies for 885 million Turkish lira ($304
million).The Qatari direct investments in Turkey, which now stand at $6 billion,
could soon reach $10 billion, according to media reports. Qatari investors are
reportedly in talks to buy a stake in another large Turkish bank, whose name has
not been disclosed. The economic ties have developed against the backdrop of
close personal relations between Qatar’s rulers and Erdogan, his family and
inner circle. The Qatari and Saudi support for Erdogan and the AKP has been also
the subject of speculation regarding the huge mysterious inflow of unidentified
foreign currency to Turkey during the years of AKP rule. The sum has reached an
unprecedented $36 billion in total, with the monthly inflows increasing
especially during election time. Qatar’s support for Turkey’s president and
government in times of hardship does not go unanswered, of course. In March,
Istanbul’s Metropolitan Municipality made a gesture in its own way, renaming one
of the city’s major roads “Qatar Boulevard.”
Can tourism be revived in ancient Iraqi city?
Wassim Bassem/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
AL-DIWANIYAH, Iraq — The ancient city of Nuffar, just south of al-Diwaniyah City
near Baghdad, dates back to 2500 B.C. Nuffar (or Nippur) was a holy city to the
ancient Iraqis of the Sumerian and Babylonian civilizations.Yet the city is not
holy to Abbas al-Yassiri, 70, who resides in a village in the Afak district near
the ancient city. He told Al-Monitor what's left of Nuffar is “mere ruins of a
city that was punished by God for the rampant corruption there.”His opinion is
no different from that of some contemporary Muslims and sects such as Tawhid,
which reject the glorification of pre-Islamic archaeological sites and
civilizations, including the city of Nuffar, because they belong to
civilizations that practiced polytheistic religions, such as the Pharaonic
civilization in Egypt and the Sumerian and Babylonian civilizations in Iraq.
Yassiri said the site “is a source of black magic and evil." He added,
"Interestingly, ancient Iraqis considered Nuffar a blessed piece of land that
was dropped from heaven by the Euphrates, which divided the city into two
parts.”Al-Monitor communicated with Hamza Genahee, a historian and sociologist
who resides a short distance from the site. He spoke to Al-Monitor about the
so-called religious capital of the Sumerians and Babylonians. He explained, “The
Mesopotamian people worshiped Enlil [the god of wind]. They believed that he
took this piece of land as a seat. Offerings were made to Enlil, and religious
ceremonies were held at the ziggurat, a massive structure that is part of
temples.”
Genahee pointed to the religious and political importance of the city, saying
its “name was mentioned in the Epic of Gilgamesh. Inscriptions were found in
this city indicating that its inhabitants were reading and writing early on in
history.”Al-Monitor made a visit to the Nuffar site. On the approach by car, the
ziggurat was visible as a high mound in a vast plain of sand dunes. To get
there, it was necessary to walk on an unpaved road for nearly 20 kilometers (12
miles). The extent of neglect by the authorities concerned with archaeology is
obvious at the site, once the most important in ancient Iraq. It was a seat of a
god who granted royal titles to rulers of this ancient land. Closer to the
ancient city center, the details of the ziggurat gradually became clearer. Part
of a landscape covered by the dust of time, it was a conical hill similar to a
terraced step pyramid with a large base and a peak rising to a height of 20
meters, which we climbed from the eastern side. The ziggurat, now damaged by
wind and rain, was built under the rule of King Ur-Nammu, the founder of the
third dynasty of Ur (2050 B.C.).
A tour at the site winds on dirt pathways between the mounds formed by sand
accumulation over time. No excavations of them have been conducted yet, and
their treasures are unknown. These pathways are covered with sand and surrounded
by the tall grass and bushes of the desert, further evidence of long neglect.
Some excavation activities were conducted in 1889 here by an expedition from the
University of Pennsylvania.
In his report about historic libraries, historian Kazem Abdullah included this
city in the most ancient libraries in history. There are no security measures to
protect the site. There is not even a tourist guide to explain the monuments.
Mohammad Sultani, a resident of the neighboring Afak district, volunteered to
guide us. Sultani pointed at holes in the mounds, saying they were caused by
illegal excavations carried out by gangs and thieves living in the neighboring
areas. He said many artifacts have been stolen from the areas that were not
legally excavated. He added, “Some residents of the neighboring areas are
trading looted antiquities from the site.” He added, “Security threats and
tribal ties make it hard to prevent trading stolen antiquities and to notify the
authorities.”Al-Monitor continued the tour and reached a low area between the
mounds. Sultani said, “It is the old course of the Euphrates, which flowed
through the city before its water receded as the years went by to become a dry
riverbed."The Temple of Enlil, marked by an old sign, is a square structure just
three meters (10 feet) long. Nothing is left of it but crumbling walls.
The Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities has no plans to rehabilitate the site.
However, on Oct. 30, 2010, there were news reports that the ministry had
allocated 3.5 billion Iraqi dinars ($3.1 million) to rehabilitate the city of
Nuffar. The ministry has also organized an annual cultural festival in al-Diwaniyah
since 2010 that puts on plays, screens documentaries and hosts art exhibits.
Shwan Daoudi, a member of the Culture Committee of the Iraqi parliament, told
Al-Monitor, “The rehabilitation of archaeological sites is a slow [process] due
to negligence that was aggravated by the financial crisis. This is caused by the
lower oil prices, which will affect future projects in most archaeological
sites.”This negligence was also evident in the warning issued by the University
of Al-Qadisiyah on May 28, 2013, of the possible “collapse of the ziggurat at
the Nuffar site, after a water leak led to the collapse of large parts of it.”In
light of the financial crisis, Essam Alwan, a retired tourism worker who
participated in the rehabilitation projects for Baylon’s antiquities in the
1980s, told Al-Monitor, “It is necessary to turn archaeological areas into
profitable touristic and cultural areas that will provide funds for
rehabilitation activities.”He called for the private sector to take the
initiative after the successive governments have failed to achieve any progress
in this field.
Will Green Movement haunt Iran’s upcoming elections?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
The registration process for the February 2016 parliamentary and Assembly of
Experts elections has come to end with a record number of candidates: Nearly
12,000 individuals registered to compete for a seat in the 290-Guardian Council
spokesman Nejatollah Ebrahimian told Tasnim News Agency on Dec. 27 that the
council will review all the comments and actions of the candidates during 2009
postelection protests. He said that the behavior of the candidates should not
have been such that it could be construed that they participated in the illegal
activities during 2009, adding they should have “clear and specific lines drawn
with the sedition of 2009.”The contested 2009 presidential elections, which
hard-liners refer to as the “2009 sedition,” was a turning point in Iranian
elections. The incumbent, controversial hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was
announced the victor. The Reformist candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi
Karroubi, challenged the results and encouraged their supporters to hold street
protests — the largest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Despite hundreds of
arrests, dozens of deaths and the house arrest of the so-called Green Movement
leaders, Iranian officials responsible for the crackdown continue to raise the
issue of the 2009 elections as a sort of dividing line between those who should
be allowed to be part of the political process and those who should not.
The Guardian Council spokesman was not the only official to discuss the 2009
elections recently. Mohammad Hussein Safar-Harandi, an adviser to the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Dec. 27 that Mousavi “is still under delusion
and for this reason has not repented nor apologized.” Mousavi, his wife, Zahra
Rahnavard, and Karroubi have been under house arrest since February 2011. While
a number of the Reformists had their political careers come to an end over the
2009 elections, politicians who stayed on the fence or were perceived to have
supported the Green Movement behind the scenes are most at risk of being
disqualified in these current elections. Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,
a candidate in the Assembly of Experts elections, is perhaps the most well-known
political figure who is attacked by conservative media for not drawing a clear
line with those who contested the elections.
While Rouhani will hope that moderates make a strong showing to break the grip
of conservatives over this parliament, given the high number of candidate
registrations, there will certainly be a high number of disqualifications.
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, said during Friday
prayers Dec. 25 that the high numbers of candidates to register are
“unfortunate” and “mysterious."For the people who registered for the Assembly of
Experts, which elects the supreme leader, Jannati rhetorically asked, “Do they
really know themselves to be religious scholars?” One of the more
headline-grabbing candidates to register for the Assembly of Experts was Hassan
Khomeini, 43, grandson of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
While Rafsanjani has praised Hassan Khomeini’s religious credentials in the
past, others have questioned whether he has the religious experience and
training to determine whether an individual is qualified to be the supreme
leader.
Is Riyadh belt-tightening or amending economic approach?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
I do not think the pricing decisions that the Saudi government recently
announced reflect a policy of belt-tightening, as some claim. They say these
decisions are temporary and a response to the steep decline in oil prices, but
according to what was announced, the pricing decisions are corrective, not
austerity measures. The solution is to diversify the economy so it is not so
dependent on oil revenues, otherwise Saudi Arabia will be poor within a few
years. In Britain, filling a car with petrol costs around $100, while in Saudi
Arabia it only costs $10. However, the price is not the issue - rather, it is
citizens’ income, which needs to be increased. The government needs to develop
the economy so the entire country - not just the government - becomes rich, and
so people are able to pay for commodities without state help. It is easier for
politicians to just pay subsidies and employ the unemployed, but this is
unsustainable. Correcting prices is necessary in order to decrease the
government’s heavy burden of subsidies. The most important thing here is that
all this falls within the context of changing the economy’s philosophy and
dynamics. A difficult step has been taken in reforming a governing style that is
more than 40 years old
Many will be patient with a situation they are not accustomed to - such as price
increases due to subsidy decreases - on condition that there is real economic
and developmental reform. This is what the government is promising.
Necessary steps
The task is complicated, requiring the correction of education, providing
training support, altering the interests of bank investments that are currently
inactive, introducing the concepts of modern management, amending the map of
industries, encouraging women to work to improve family income, fighting social
habits of depending on others, holding government institutions accountable, and
adopting a program that fights corruption on all levels. The wish list goes on,
but it is not impossible to implement because when the country’s production
increases, the incomes of citizens - who will pay the entire price of a liter of
fuel according to the price of global markets, without complaining - will also
increase. A difficult step has been taken in reforming a governing style that is
more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, the concept of state subsidies has been
favored due to financial abundance, but the Saudi population has increased from
8 million to around 25 million, including 4 million foreign workers. It is in
citizens’ interest to amend the economic situation and work toward a safe
future. Correcting prices is the first major step. Oil revenues are decreasing
and the population will double, while the standard of living in the world will
continue to rise.
Therefore, the public interest is not in paying off fiscal deficits via
government support, borrowing money or austerity measures. The solution is to
develop citizens’ capabilities and the country’s productive potential so Saudis
become like citizens of develo
Is Russia going soft on Assad?
Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
Russia is progressively unveiling the objectives behind its large-scale military
operations in Syria. Moscow is literally remapping the country to serve its
long-term strategic interests, and to change its status in Syria from key player
to sole manager. Russia claimed that its aim in intervening directly was to
fight the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). However, skepticism has
increased, with many parties - including Washington - accusing Moscow of hitting
the opposition to save the deteriorating regime. To challenge these allegations,
Russia increased its bombing of ISIS and urged coordination from other
countries.Today, however, Moscow does not seem worried about the world’s
perception of its role in Syria. Moscow may be ready to soften its stubborn
stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as long as his replacement does not
threaten its interests. In its bid to dominate, Russia has reportedly entered
talks with the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). This is likely to be true in
light of the decrease in FSA attacks against regime forces. Russia is trying to
make its own recipe for a solution in Syria, but its goal is wider. It hopes
that its increasing military engagement in Syria will create a deal with the
West over Ukraine that ends sanctions, which are hurting Russia’s economy,
particularly given the sharp decline in oil prices. Moscow also hopes to fill
the regional power vacuum left by U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East.
Russian statements
As such, Moscow may be ready to soften its stubborn stance on Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad as long as his replacement does not threaten its interests.
Recent remarks by Russian officials point to this softening. In his traditional
end-of-year news conference, President Vladimir Putin made no mention of Assad
being a necessity for Moscow, saying only that Syrians themselves should decide
who leads them. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin wanted
Syria to prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections. Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was more explicit. When asked in November whether it
was crucial for Moscow that Assad remain in power, she replied: “Absolutely not,
we’ve ever said that… Only the Syrian people can decide the president’s
fate.”Russia’s softening on Assad is also related to the U.S. position.
Washington has spent a lot of resources and diplomatic effort on him stepping
down, and so is unlikely to change course. France, Britain, Germany and regional
states also want Assad to stand down, as he bears responsibility for the
conflict by waging war on his own people. Moscow cannot afford to be at odds
with all these major players because it would mean more isolation.
Will Russia boost Mideast ties in 2016?
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
The year 2015 was very controversial and ambiguous for Russia, particularly
regarding its military and foreign policies. Its unprecedented involvement in
the Middle East, and its engagement with the Muslim world, reflect fundamental
changes in Russia’s self-positioning on the world stage. Many Middle Eastern
countries became important strategic partners, and Russia - where Muslims and
Christians coexist peacefully - showed readiness to contribute to the global
fight against extremism, and to promote moderate Islam. Moscow increased
cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Even
the current ban on flight communication between Russia and Egypt, temporarily
imposed by Moscow, cannot spoil bilateral ties because it is based on security
matters, not political ones.
The coming year will be marked by the improvement of Russian ties with Middle
Eastern countries.
Russia has demonstrated its willingness to challenge U.S. dominance of the
Middle East military market, with cheaper and sometimes better military
equipment. Moscow finally delivered the S-300 missile system to Iran following a
deal reached long ago, and its delivery did not have regional repercussions. Nor
did Russia’s S-400 deployment in Syria - on the contrary, it has forced all
sides involved in the conflict to be more restrained and think twice before
acting. In 2015, Russia demonstrated how far it would go to defend its national
interests, with little to lose after being put under pressure and threatened for
too long, particularly due to the Ukraine crisis. Russians view Western
sanctions as unmasking unfriendly intentions, and so have had the effect
opposite to the one expected. The coming year will be marked by the improvement
of Russian ties with Middle Eastern countries. The Kremlin awaits the visits of
the Saudi and Moroccan kings, and the inauguration of investment, industrial and
commercial projects in and with Middle Eastern countries. Russia will also try
to substitute European and Turkish goods with those from the region.
Obstacles
However, developments from 2015 will limit Moscow’s room for maneuver. The
dramatic fall in oil prices will continue to dampen the Russian currency. The
bombing of a Russian civilian plane over the Sinai that killed 224 people, and
the continuing terrorist threat will weigh on personal liberties and domestic
security, hurting civil society and democracy in Russia. The deterioration of
relations with Turkey due to the downing of a Russian fighter jet complicates
Moscow’s position in the Middle East. Its expensive military operations in Syria
will not end soon as there is no predetermined time limit and the goals are
vague - this will weigh heavily on the national budget and economy. To overcome
these difficulties, Russia will diversify and develop its ties with Middle East
countries. Most likely its policies will remain unchanged, no matter what the
risks. The year 2015 was tough, but the coming year may be tougher.
The Paris Response: Answering Urgent Questions in the
Anti-ISIS Fight
Mohammed S. Dajani, Lori Plotkin Boghardt, Sarah Feuer, Soner Cagaptay, Simon
Henderson, Michael Eisenstadt, Fabrice Balanche, Brig. Gen. Muni Katz, IDF,
Nadav Pollak, Jeffrey White, Jacob Olidort, Matthew Levitt, Olivier Decottignies,
Michael Knights, David Pollock, James F. Jeffrey, and Anna Borshchevskaya/
December 30/15
A Washington Institute Q&A
Experts weigh in on key questions regarding the perpetrators of the Paris
attacks and the proper response, including counterterror and military measures
in Syria and Iraq.
What is the mindset of ISIS leaders?
Are the Gulf States stopping private support to ISIS?
What are France’s North African allies doing about the ISIS problem?
Why isn’t Turkey curbing the flow of Syrian refugees and ISIS returnees into
Europe?
How can Washington bring its Arab allies back into the fight against ISIS?
Are many thousands of U.S. boots on the ground the only way to defeat ISIS?
Why has ISIS been able to establish and maintain control in eastern Syria?
Does ISIS threaten Israel?
How should Washington respond to its allies’ need for leadership?
How can a highly adaptive and ruthless enemy like ISIS be stopped?
What impact will the Paris attacks have on other Sunni and jihadist groups?
How does ISIS finance itself?
Why didn’t France call NATO for assistance?
How could the U.S. military effort against ISIS be made more effective?
How much can the Kurds do against ISIS?
Why is Turkey staying out of the anti-ISIS fight, and how can Washington
persuade it to be more helpful?
Does ISIS truly want to create an Islamic State, and would it leave the West
alone if the West left it alone?
What happens if Europe turns up the heat on Syrian refugees?
How useful is Russia in combating ISIS?
What is the mindset of ISIS leaders?
Why blow up a Russian airliner and thus challenge a powerful nation to destroy
you? Why murder innocent civilians in Paris in plain sight, thereby demonizing
yourself and your faith and losing global support for your cause, whatever it
is? Why behead a Chinese citizen and thus add one more powerful nation to the
list of your deadly enemies? Why broadcast threats of imminent attacks against
the United States, the most powerful nation in the world? Why infiltrate
refugees fleeing from your terror in order to antagonize host nations against
them? And what exactly does ISIS expect to happen when some or all of these
actors come gunning for it in Syria and Iraq?
To answer these questions, one must understand the Islamic State’s mindset:
namely, its belief that creating global mayhem, fear, and chaos will bring about
the end of days. To them, this is Armageddon, the last battle fought against
infidels from different corners of the world. In that sense, their goal goes far
beyond that of al-Qaeda and the late Osama bin Laden, who wanted just a limited
war aimed at liberating Muslim nations from supposed U.S. imperialist hegemony.
ISIS leaders have a wider vision and a more comprehensive strategic design.
Their mindset can be boiled down fairly bluntly: “You want a clash with Islam,
we’ll give you a clash with Islam.” Indeed, their nihilistic ideology and
actions are based on a series of such fallacies — that ISIS speaks for Islam;
that Islam is a religion of conquest rather than peace; that those who die
fighting for the sake of God and Islam are martyrs destined to live among the
prophets in heaven; that Christians and Jews have lost favor with God; that its
infidel enemies are cowards; and that its cadres are unlimited in number and
global in reach. Perhaps most important, ISIS believes that it represents the
“good” in this “final battle between good and evil,” and that it will be
victorious despite the seemingly insurmountable forces arraying against it.
— Mohammed Dajani
Are the Gulf States stopping private support to ISIS?
Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has suffered a deadly succession of
high-profile attacks linked to ISIS. In June, Kuwait was victim to an ISIS
suicide bombing at a Shiite mosque — its worst terrorist incident in decades.
And Bahrain recently announced its first trial of alleged ISIS supporters
plotting attacks on the island. Deep concerns about these and other terrorist
activities have driven policies aimed at discouraging ties between Gulf citizens
and foreign residents on the one hand, and ISIS members in Syria and Iraq on the
other. The idea has been to reduce the incidence of residents with ISIS links
bringing the fight home to the Gulf states.
Funding and delivering weaponry to ISIS, traveling abroad to fight with the
group, and providing other kinds of support is prohibited in most Gulf states.
Several countries have been arresting, prosecuting, and jailing ISIS backers. In
Saudi Arabia, ISIS financiers, would-be fighters, and clerics championing the
group have been among the thousands of individuals detained by authorities in
recent years. But some Gulf states are balancing other domestic and foreign
interests with the extremist threat. One country that is understood to be home
to ISIS supporters but has not announced a trial for anyone backing the group or
other al-Qaeda-related entities is Qatar.
Most Gulf states have not taken serious steps to curtail the extremist dogma on
which ISIS feeds and grows. They continue to tolerate and in some cases sanction
hateful ideology in their mosques, schools, and/or media. Oman and the United
Arab Emirates have been relative exceptions in this regard. Gulf efforts to halt
private support for ISIS in Syria will continue to be challenged by this
cyclical phenomenon.
— Lori Plotkin Boghardt
What are France’s North African allies doing about the ISIS problem?
Among the nations eagerly awaiting clarification on France and Washington’s
response to the Paris attacks are Morocco and Tunisia, their closest allies in
North Africa. The attacks and the broader ISIS menace resonate deeply with both
countries. North African immigrants and their French descendants form the bulk
of the French Muslim community. Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the alleged mastermind of
the plot, was a Belgian of Moroccan origin whose father recently moved back to
the North African kingdom. Moroccan intelligence reportedly assisted the French
in tracking down Abaaoud and his accomplices. And three days after the attacks,
Turkish police announced that they had detained eight ISIS-linked Moroccans who
had traveled to Istanbul from Casablanca and planned to continue on to Germany.
Meanwhile, Moroccan authorities regularly disrupt terrorist cells plotting
attacks at home.
For its part, Tunisia is mourning the loss of two of its own who were among the
victims in Paris. The small country has earned the unfortunate distinction of
being the largest exporter of foreign fighters to Syria and Iraq over the past
four years — at least 3,000 so far. In recent days, Tunisian authorities have
arrested seventeen Islamist militants for allegedly planning attacks against
tourist and security locations in Sousse, the site of this summer’s beach
massacre of thirty-eight tourists by a self-proclaimed ISIS member. Like the
Paris attackers, some of the Tunisian plotters arrested on November 16 had
traveled to Syria for training.
In the longer term, the attacks could roil the deep security, political, and
economic connections between these countries and France. If the EU begins
deporting more radicals, many of them will likely end up in North Africa,
exacerbating the threat of terrorism from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and
affiliated groups. Moreover, France remains the largest trading partner, largest
source of foreign investment, and a key source of remittances for Morocco and
Tunisia, so its economic and social health in the wake of the attacks will have
a direct bearing on these states’ trajectories. Tunisia has a particularly
strong interest in seeing France thrive given its own struggles to complete a
democratic transition, rebuild its economy, and fend off regional security
threats. Accordingly, part of any U.S. assistance to France should be earmarked
for bolstering common allies in North Africa, for whom ISIS is on the doorstep
if not already inside the house.
— Sarah Feuer
Why isn’t Turkey curbing the flow of Syrian refugees and ISIS returnees into
Europe?
Before the Paris attacks, Turkey was in talks with the EU to stem the flow of
Syrian refugees. The attacks will raise the immediacy of that issue, with Turkey
likely pledging to create a better refugee registration and hosting system. It
may also agree to become a “readmission” country, allowing the EU to transfer
Syrians who have entered the continent illegally to safe destinations in Turkey.
In return, Brussels may yield (albeit gradually) to Ankara’s longstanding
demands for lifting visa restrictions on Turkish citizens traveling to Europe.
Post-Paris dynamics will also rally European support around Turkey’s call for
establishing a safe haven in northern Syria. For its part, Ankara will improve
its cooperation with EU capitals to prevent the return of ISIS foreign fighters
from Syria to Europe.
In the longer term, Ankara will leverage its newfound bargaining power with
Brussels to jumpstart its EU accession talks. France has already signaled that
it will lift its objections to unfreezing five of the thirty-five “chapters” in
that process, and it will likely urge Cyprus to allow the unfreezing of another
six. EU accession is one of the few remaining anchors of liberal democracy in
Turkey, and rejuvenating the talks would strengthen that anchor.
Yet any such progress will depend on stemming the flow of foreign fighters to
and from Syria. Several of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks had spent time
in Syria after crossing over from Turkey, and many Europeans no doubt wonder
about Ankara’s actual commitment to addressing that issue. Moreover, the attacks
will likely bolster far-right and xenophobic political parties in France and
elsewhere that have made opposition to Turkish accession central to their
platform. Last but not least, given the concern over Turkish jihadists in Syria,
EU countries will think twice before granting Turks visa-free access.
— Soner Cagaptay
How can Washington bring its Arab allies back into the fight against ISIS?
As the New York Times reported before the Paris attacks, “The Arab allies who
with great fanfare sent warplanes on the initial missions [in Syria] a year ago
have largely vanished from the campaign.” The reported reason was that Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have shifted their attention to Yemen, as
has Jordan, which was additionally affected by the Islamic State’s grisly
execution of a captured pilot. By contrast, the rarely stated reason is that the
GCC countries are conflicted by events in Syria.
Fearing Iranian troublemaking and regional ascendency in the wake of the nuclear
deal, GCC leaders would prefer an outcome in Syria that delivers a strategic
setback to Tehran — in addition to displacing President Bashar al-Assad, whom
they have loathed since he described them as “half-men” during the 2006
Israel-Hezbollah war. Hence the flow of Saudi and Qatari support for Syrian
rebels, delivered with few of the scruples attached to U.S. and other Western
military aid. Any fear of domestic jihadist blowback was apparently deemed a
problem for tomorrow.
The challenge for Washington is to convince these monarchies that the United
States has their back on Iran, acknowledging the threat that Tehran’s hardliners
pose rather than dismissing it as Arab paranoia. In return, it will seek Gulf
support for a Syria outcome that does not bolster Russia or Tehran — which could
also help GCC leaders garner moderate Islamic legitimacy.
— Simon Henderson
Are many thousands of U.S. boots on the ground the only way to defeat ISIS?
Many of the proposed fixes to the campaign against ISIS involve “game-changing”
moves such as committing large Western ground forces. This is just not going to
happen, for a variety of reasons. As seen in past wars, however, incremental
improvements in various aspects of the campaign could yield cumulative effects
whose results could in turn be decisive.
For example, a combination of new tactics, operational concepts, and
technologies enabled the Allied victory in the Battle of the Atlantic in 1943,
Israel’s defeat of Syrian air defenses in Lebanon in 1982, and the 2007 “surge”
that turned the tide of the Iraq war. In the counter-ISIS campaign, such a shift
would entail intensified air operations, less restrictive rules of engagement,
and the embedding of U.S. advisors with local ground forces. More important, in
accordance with Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter’s recent promise, it would
entail an intensified campaign of Special Forces, airmobile, and armored raids
in eastern Syria by relatively small Western (e.g., French and American) units,
aimed at wreaking havoc in the Islamic State’s rear areas and keeping it off
balance. These raids would be launched in concert with offensives by Syrian
Kurdish and Arab forces (if they can overcome their traditional rivalries) along
their line of contact with ISIS.
This new concept would threaten the group on two fronts in eastern Syria and
place it on the horns of a dilemma: counter the mobile Western raiders running
loose in its rear areas and disrupting its lines of communication, or fight the
Kurdish and Arab forces breaking down its front door? ISIS units forced into the
open to deal with either of these threats would be vulnerable to punishing
coalition airstrikes.
The United States should also carry out a focused information campaign that
leverages coalition military successes to create an image of restored momentum,
thereby producing a bandwagon effect in which the Islamic State’s enemies sense
the group’s vulnerability, commit to the fight, and pile on. An overstretched
and beleaguered ISIS would thus face the threat of uprisings from within and
attacks from without — in Syria and perhaps even in Iraq.
This enfeeblement of ISIS should pave the way to establishing humanitarian safe
havens and sustainable local political arrangements in Syria, as a first step
toward dealing with the refugee problem and building up an effective moderate
opposition. And, in an ironic reversal of the coalition’s original campaign
logic, success in Syria may eventually create military and diplomatic
opportunities in Iraq.
— Michael Eisenstadt
Why has ISIS been able to establish and maintain control in eastern Syria?
Military factors aside, the prevailing social, demographic, and economic
situation in the eastern part of the country made it ripe for an ISIS takeover.
The group’s chosen capital, Raqqa, is no prize in of itself — it does not have a
prestigious past, nor is it of major strategic importance. It is simply the
worst of Syria’s provincial capitals in terms of human development.
Raqqa currently has around 300,000 inhabitants (including 80,000 refugees),
compared to 15,000 in 1960. Two-thirds of the population lives in large,
informal suburbs. These are rural people who were driven toward the city by
poverty and rapid population growth in the countryside. Raqqa province has the
highest fertility rate in Syria: eight children per woman. It is also the most
rural and agricultural province, with a majority of the workforce in the farming
and mining sectors. Its average education level is the lowest in the country;
one-third of women are illiterate, and early marriages are still the norm.
In addition, Raqqa was already living under some of the rules of sharia even
before the 2013 ISIS invasion. When I visited the city in previous years, I did
not encounter a single restaurant that served alcohol, in contrast to other
Syrian cities. In this purely Sunni community (less than 1% Christian before
2013), ISIS is like a fish in water.
Economically, the plots of land that locals received during various reforms in
the 1960s are no longer sufficient to feed families whose numbers have
quintupled in half a century. Competition for land and water leads to conflicts
between tribes that ISIS knows very well, and the group has used the situation
to consolidate power. These land issues motivated the offensive against Kobane,
where ISIS hoped to expel the Kurds and distribute their properties to its
tribal supporters.
— Fabrice Balanche
Does ISIS threaten Israel?
At present, the ISIS branches that are active on Israel’s borders do not pose a
major threat to it, nor do radicalized individuals inspired by the organization.
The border threat is focused to the south and north; ISIS does not have any
notable presence in the West Bank.
The ISIS branch in the Sinai Peninsula has proven to be relatively strong
compared to other branches, but Israel is more than capable of coping with it
given the strengthened fence on this frontier, as well as the advanced
intelligence and combat capabilities that monitor this area constantly. Israel
is also coordinating with Egypt to reduce the possibility of surprises.
To the north, ISIS affiliates have very limited presence close to the Syrian
border, and their offensive capabilities in the Golan Heights are not
significant at the moment. Thinking in advance about this potential threat,
Israel has fortified the fences there and strengthened its military presence
with additional forces and intelligence capabilities.
As for the threat posed by radicalized individuals, despite some high-profile
cases, only about forty-five Israeli Arabs have left the country to join ISIS,
which is a low number. Furthermore, authorities have reliable information about
their identities, so if they try to return home, they will be apprehended the
minute they arrive. Israel’s border control measures are some of the most
restrictive in the Western world, so it has very good information about who
arrives and who leaves. Notably, the Palestinian Authority and various Israeli
Arab communities are also trying to deal with the threat of radicalization
themselves — a welcome force multiplier to the Israeli government’s efforts.
The major threat that Israeli officials do fear regarding ISIS is the
possibility of the group getting its hands on unconventional weapons such as a
“dirty bomb” or chemical weapons. But they admit that the probability of this
scenario is low at present.
For now, Israel has much more potent threats to its security than ISIS — namely
the radical Iran-Hezbollah axis. This axis has significantly more offensive
capabilities and resources to threaten Israel, whether by targeting its citizens
abroad or targeting population centers inside Israel during an armed conflict.
— Muni Katz and Nadav Pollak
How should Washington respond to its allies’ need for leadership?
The Paris attacks reminded Londoners of their own city’s vulnerability, and the
threat posed by jihadist fighters returning home from Iraq and Syria to live in
a society they probably despise — and Albion’s current deficit of fighting
spirit. Lacking an aircraft carrier of its own, Britain announced on November 18
that it was sending the destroyer HMS Defender to support the French aircraft
carrier Charles de Gaulle in its mission to tackle ISIS forces.
The Defense Ministry statement accompanying this move could have been a script
from the old television sitcom Yes, Minister, which used to poke fun at the
British art of political decisionmaking — namely, its preference for elegantly
finessing difficult choices. The official news release did not point out that
the French aircraft would likely be hitting targets in Syria. Nor did it mention
that Britain’s own anti-ISIS strikes are currently limited to Iraq because Prime
Minister David Cameron is fearful that he cannot get parliamentary approval for
expanding operations to Syria. To complete the appearance of farce, the HMS
Defender‘s specialist role is air defense — a threat that ISIS does not pose to
the French carrier group.
Opposition to more extensive deployment against ISIS comes from all corners of
the British political spectrum — rebels in Cameron’s own Conservative Party, the
newly significant Scottish Nationalist Party, and also the main Labour
opposition party, now led by longtime left-wing maverick Jeremy Corbyn. These
disparate factions are united by their reluctance to be involved in what some
consider “other people’s wars,” a mindset that tends to underplay the jihadist
threat at home.
The British navy’s usual partner is the U.S. Navy. Defender‘s sister ship, HMS
Daring, was a constant companion to the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln during its
Persian Gulf deployment three years ago, when Iranian air and naval units were
real threats to operations.
In times of crisis, U.S. allies look to Washington for leadership in
policymaking. For the moment they see little of that, despite White House
briefings to the contrary. The immediate consequence will likely be continued
fence sitting. When there is frantic signaling, as now from London, Washington
needs to respond, and publicly.
— Simon Henderson
How can a highly adaptive and ruthless enemy like ISIS be stopped?
The Islamic State can be likened to a dangerous pest or invasive species. From
that perspective, the minimum objective should be to reduce the group to the
point where life can go on normally, while maintaining vigilance against any
reemergence and, when necessary, taking appropriate prophylactic measures.
ISIS has propagated in an environment of instability and fanaticism, brought
about by the collapse of state and society and exacerbated by ineffectual
responses. The pest has grown strong, increasing its numbers and geographic
range. It has become invasive, jumping borders and spreading well beyond its
original territory. To effectively control it, the organism itself must be
directly attacked, primarily with military force, and the environment in which
it has flourished must be altered.
Directly attacking the pest entails:
Reducing its territory through offensive military operations to limit its
resource base and the areas it can directly affect.
Killing its foot soldiers through attrition operations to reduce its
capabilities and scope of action.
Killing the “queens and consorts” (the Islamic State’s leadership) to disrupt
its ability to create new followers and direct their activities.
Increasing the number of predators and competitors on the landscape who can
attack it directly and draw resources away from it (i.e., more Kurdish and other
minority fighters, and more moderate rebel units).
Killing its colonies (Libya, Sinai, cells in Europe) before they become too
strong.
Changing the environment is broader and goes beyond military measures. It
includes:
Denying sustenance (recruits, money, arms) to the organism by sealing its
borders, closing off revenue sources (e.g., petroleum sales), and countering its
ideology.
Reducing its attractive qualities by reducing elements in the environment (i.e.,
the Assad regime) that make it look attractive.
Demonstrating that life under ISIS is likely to be brutal and short for its
supporters (i.e., killing them, preventing governance, reducing quality of life
in ruled areas).
Because ISIS is a highly adaptive and ruthless species now in possession of
significant resources, these measures need to be applied simultaneously and
persistently. Even if they are largely successful, continuous surveillance and
reapplication of treatment will be required. Just like for those yellow jackets
that come back to your yard every year, or the kudzu that clogs your stream.
— Jeffrey White
What impact will the Paris attacks have on other Sunni and jihadist groups?
While it is still too early to tell, there are strong indicators that the
attacks could further isolate ISIS from other violent and nonviolent Sunni
groups in the region. Nonviolent Sunnis issued condemnations of the attacks the
very next day, calling them acts of terrorism with no basis in Islam. And while
the scale and attention of the operation might encourage other jihadist groups
to follow suit, they probably cannot muster the resources to do so. This
includes al-Qaeda, which has a comparatively weak central command and is
currently focused on competing with ISIS and Shiite groups in Syria and Yemen.
Setting aside the human tragedy that ISIS is still causing, the above
implications might further support the argument that the recent attacks are
symptoms of a group in retreat rather than on the ascent. Moreover, unlike
al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks, the Paris operation may have been poorly timed — ISIS
already faces mounting rhetorical and physical pressures from local Arab
governments such as Egypt, creating disincentives for potential Arab recruits to
join.
Even so, given the Islamic State’s unique appeal to certain foreign communities
and its structural and financial independence from al-Qaeda and Gulf backers,
the group will likely remain eager to plan attacks abroad, despite — or perhaps
because of — its marginalization of other Sunni actors. The task before the
international community is to establish greater security and intelligence
coordination on ISIS recruitment overseas in addition to countering the group on
the battlefield.
(Note: All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed above are those of
the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S.
government.)
— Jacob Olidort
How does ISIS finance itself?
The Islamic State is primarily financed through criminal activities in the parts
of Syria and Iraq it controls. Its members steal livestock, sell foreign fighter
passports, tax minorities, run a sophisticated extortion racket, kidnap
civilians for ransom, loot antiquities, and much more. The group also makes
about $40 million a month from illicit oil sales alone. But these sources
primarily support expensive state-building and war-fighting enterprises back
home, ranging from paying teacher salaries and collecting the garbage to bribing
tribal leaders and rewarding its fighters.
As for its supporters abroad, ISIS has encouraged foreign cells to finance their
operations through local criminal activities or legal sources such as welfare
benefits and bank loans. Abusing charities is another funding stream available
to terrorist operatives in the West. Thus far, the various financing schemes
uncovered by European authorities have focused on raising funds for terrorist
activities in Syria and Iraq, but small amounts could easily be skimmed off the
top for operations inside the continent and elsewhere.
Unlike previous attacks in France, which were almost all lone-offender plots
inspired by ISIS propaganda, the Paris attacks were planned outside the country.
In the event that ISIS leaders wanted to send funds to finance this operation,
they could have given small sums of money to various foreign fighters returning
home to Europe, enough to carry on their person. The group has also engaged in
backdoor banking, using institutions just outside its areas of control to access
the international financial system. Yet while the group’s governance and
military expenses in Syria and Iraq are high, carrying out an attack in the West
is fairly cheap.
— Matthew Levitt
Why didn’t France call NATO for assistance?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty lays out the principle that an attack
against one ally “shall be considered an attack against them all.” In the wake
of the 9/11 attacks, the United States invoked this article for the first time
in NATO’s history. Yet after the Paris attacks, France chose not to, even while
intensifying its airstrikes against ISIS in Syria in cooperation with
Washington.
Instead, in a solemn address to parliament on November 16, President Francois
Hollande called on the UN Security Council to “to adopt a resolution expressing
our common will to combat terrorism.” This move is consistent with his call for
the formation of a “large, single coalition” against ISIS, including Russia. It
also reflects the extent of a threat that reaches far beyond NATO, as
demonstrated by attacks in Tunis, Beirut, and the Sinai.
President Hollande also invoked Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union,
which states that “if a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its
territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid
and assistance by all the means in their power.” In a deeply integrated bloc
like the EU, France’s homeland security is intertwined with that of its
neighbors. Although authorities in Belgium and Germany have already made arrests
in connection with the attacks, the larger message is that France — for years at
the forefront of the continent’s defense efforts from Mali to Syria — can no
longer bear the costs or risks alone. The unanimous support that EU defense
ministers have expressed in response is good news for Europe and NATO — if the
Europeans deliver.
— Olivier Decottignies
How could the U.S. military effort against ISIS be made more effective?
ISIS has mastered the counter-stroke whenever America’s Iraqi and Syrian allies
have landed a painful blow on the group with coalition help. Yet while
high-visibility terrorist actions off the battlefield are a potent distraction,
the coalition’s successes on the battlefield should not be overlooked, since
they represent the most tangible and realistic means of striking back at ISIS.
The terrorist movement values attacks abroad because they provide a
countervailing narrative to its gradual military collapse in Iraq and Syria. So
the first response to the Paris tragedy is to stay on track with the grinding
coalition campaign against the ISIS-held cities of Ramadi, Raqqa, and Mosul.
Second, the U.S.-led coalition should boost the visibility of its military
efforts, doing a better job of seizing media attention back from ISIS, holding
it, and preparing for the group’s next distraction. For example, the buildup to
the successful Sinjar offensive in Iraq was significant, as was the subsequent
media coverage. NATO spin doctors first learned to feed the media’s insatiable
appetite for dramatic imagery and detailed briefings during the 1999 Kosovo war,
in part to deny this key terrain to the Milosevic regime. Today, the coalition
needs to up its game in information operations, delegating more IO authority to
lower levels at the headquarters controlling the fight in Iraq and Syria.
Preparing IO options in advance for high-visibility strikes on ISIS leaders and
key units would also help. The recent aerial destruction of ISIS oil tankers and
the drone strike on “Jihadi John” are just the kinds of actions the coalition
needs to have on tap. Some spectacular news should be kept quiet until the
coalition needs a boost, which requires great discipline. And some strikes
should be made more spectacular than strictly necessary (e.g., via more
pyrotechnics and bigger devices) to show Arab publics what they can expect when
the world’s greatest military powers are on their side.
Alongside showmanship, the coalition needs to fight harder. Without getting into
sensitive details, the United States should significantly loosen the current
rules of engagement (ROE), allowing lower-level commanders to approve strikes
within a more reasonable timeframe if the risk of civilian deaths is small. This
is the equivalent of downgrading platinum-standard target vetting to
gold-standard. It would bring operations back into the realm of normal Western
air campaigns and revolutionize the coalition’s ability to gut the enemy. Any
such shift should be put into effect before it is announced. The first few weeks
of an enhanced air campaign would be remarkably painful for ISIS, forcing its
cadres to adapt in ways that help them survive but make them less effective.
If the U.S. government cannot move its own goalposts on target vetting, then it
should create a “Coalition of the More Willing” that is not bound by U.S. ROE.
American military units could cope quite well with an allied force that has more
leeway to strike than they do — there should be no hesitation about providing
France with any ISIS leadership coordinates that the United States has been
agonizing over whether to strike.
— Michael Knights
How much can the Kurds do against ISIS?
The Kurds are limited in manpower and reach, are considered provocative by
others needed for this fight (especially in Baghdad and Ankara), and are neither
fully united nor fully democratic. But they are the best there is: disciplined,
effective, friendly, and totally committed to the battle against ISIS. Kurdish
militias — the Peshmerga in Iraq and the People’s Defense Units (YPG) in Syria —
have demonstrated their military worth not only by successfully defending the
Kurdistan region of Iraq against repeated ISIS assaults, but also by liberating
significant areas such as Sinjar and Kobane.
So in order to fight ISIS faster, the United States should do even more to aid
its Kurdish allies. In addition to the current airstrikes, arms supplies, and
intelligence and Special Operations support, Washington could deliver more
weapons directly to frontline units, accelerate joint planning for new military
campaigns, and enhance coordination about “the day after” ISIS is pushed out of
areas. Equally important, Washington should step up its humanitarian,
development, and reconstruction assistance. The Kurds are suffering acutely
under multiple economic burdens: a cutoff of funding from Baghdad, drastically
lower prices for their own greatly increased oil production, hundreds of
thousands of refugees, and the huge costs and devastation of war.
As for Turkish and Arab concerns, the Kurds’ own limitations are the best
insurance policy — they are simply too few in number to take over much more of
Syria or Iraq. The Kurds in Iraq have also largely kept their promise not to
engage in ethnic cleansing as they advance. And the Kurds in Syria have kept
their promise not to attack Turkey or aid their PKK sister organization in its
doomed fight against the Turkish government.
— David Pollock
Why is Turkey staying out of the anti-ISIS fight, and how can Washington
persuade it to be more helpful?
Turkey is a reluctant warrior against ISIS for at least three reasons. First,
while it sees the group as a threat, it is more concerned with two other
priorities: countering Kurdish nationalism of the sort advocated by the
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its Syrian sister organization the Democratic
Union Party (PYD), and ousting Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Second, while Ankara
does not directly support ISIS, it has turned a blind eye to some of its
activities, including in Turkey, and it allows freedom of movement to
individuals transiting its territory to fight Assad regardless of which group
they might belong to. Third, Ankara is attempting to use the prospect of more
forceful action against ISIS (beyond opening bases to U.S. operations and
conducting a few desultory airstrikes) as leverage to gain Washington’s
acquiescence on the Turkish no-fly-zone idea in northern Syria, and to pressure
the PYD to be more aggressive against Assad and less expansionist in Arab areas
near the border with Turkey.
There is no pressure that can change President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s position
on this issue. If the United States and its allies want a more active Turkey,
then they must at least partially accommodate Ankara. That means taking more
care in empowering the PYD and adopting a tougher position on Assad, most likely
to include a no-fly zone. Ironically, Washington is reliant on the PYD not only
because it refuses to commit U.S. ground troops, but also because it has not
been able to enlist serious Turkish participation in the fight. The more Turkey
can be persuaded to oppose ISIS actively, the less the United States will need
to rely on the PYD. The opposite is also true, however — the more Washington
embraces the Syrian Kurds, the more reluctant Turkey will be to enable such an
alliance.
— James F. Jeffrey
Does ISIS truly want to create an Islamic State, and would it leave the West
alone if the West left it alone?
Unlike previous ISIS-inspired plots, the Paris attacks were “prepared and
planned elsewhere, with outside involvement.” That alone is a significant
tactical shift for ISIS, and one that cannot be explained away as a response to
gains made by the U.S.-led coalition in Syria and Iraq — such attacks take much
longer to prepare, and they were surely already in the works when ISIS suffered
its most recent setbacks. Moreover, the attacks did not take place in a vacuum —
they followed a series of other international terrorist strikes claimed by ISIS
in Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt.
Yet while the recent foreign plots were a new step for the group, they should
not have been unexpected. ISIS describes its goals as “enduring and expanding,”
but that is not all it seeks to accomplish. Its ideology is explicitly
apocalyptic, looking to draw “the Romans” (i.e. the infidel West) into a
dramatic battle that will presage Judgement Day. Prophecies about an end-of-days
battle in the Syrian town of Dabiq permeate ISIS statements and literature. The
group’s English-language magazine is even called Dabiq; as its editors explain,
“The area will play a historical role in the battles leading up to the conquests
of Constantinople, then Rome.” The prophecies to which ISIS adheres demand
conquest not just in the Middle East, but all over the world. As Will McCants
explains in his excellent book The ISIS Apocalypse, “The Islamic State has
stoked the apocalyptic fire,” fanning the flames of a dangerous ideology that
respects no boundaries.
— Matthew Levitt
What happens if Europe turns up the heat on Syrian refugees?
Since the Paris attacks, several countries have decided to suspend the reception
of Syrian refugees or allow entry to Christians alone, who are unlikely to be
creatures of ISIS. This measure is partly an excuse to avoid taking their share
of responsibility for the Syrian drama. If the decision stands and becomes a
universal policy in Europe, it would engender feelings of hopelessness among
many refugees that could in turn spur a huge wave of radicalization,
particularly among those who fought the Assad regime.
In my many interviews with Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan over
the past two years, I noticed their strong bitterness against Western countries:
“You have pushed us to lift against Bashar al-Assad, you have promised us
military help, but nothing came, as when Assad crossed the redline. Because we
have trusted, we lost everything: we cannot come back to Syria, we are stuck in
this miserable camp in Lebanon where we have no future.”
Indeed, humanitarian aid is falling, and Lebanese authorities are exerting
stronger pressure on refugees to return to Syria. Heading for Europe is often
their only hope, even if the quest takes years. The complete closure of European
borders would strike many Syrian refugees as a new betrayal by the West. “You
have betrayed us, and only ISIS can help us regain our dignity”: that is how
most of my interviews ended in 2014, and one year later the situation is worse
for the refugees.
— Fabrice Balanche
How useful is Russia in combating ISIS?
Numerous reports indicate that the vast majority of Russia’s airstrikes have not
been directed against ISIS targets. Rather, Moscow’s Syria intervention has
exacerbated the flow of refugees fleeing Assad, emboldened ISIS by helping to
eliminate its opponents (including those backed by the West), and disheartened
U.S. regional allies in the absence of a coherent Western response.
Vladimir Putin’s consistent support for Assad since 2011 also contributed to the
growth of ISIS. According to an extensive July report by Elena Milashina of
Novaya Gazeta, one of the few remaining independent newspapers in Russia, the
Kremlin’s special services have controlled the flow of Islamist radicals from
Russia into Syria since 2011, and sometimes even assisted their entry. Other
reports and private conversations with experts support this report. Rather than
help solve the problem, Russia’s Federal Security Service preferred to hand it
off to others. As a result, terrorist attacks in Russia and elsewhere will
likely increase once these fighters return home. Meanwhile, Russia’s policies in
the North Caucasus have done little to reduce the pool of potential recruits for
ISIS and other terrorist groups. In the past, Putin has not shied away from
supporting Islamists abroad. For instance, he did not object when Assad allowed
radical Islamists to transit Syria into Iraq.
It is in Russia’s interest to genuinely fight ISIS, especially given the
instability in the North Caucasus, but Putin’s primary concern is to stay in
power and divide the West. He is using the tragic Paris events as an opportunity
to push the West to accept his agenda. A true global leader considers
international security rather than pushing his own narrow interests at the
expense of others, including his own people. In this context, Putin’s Russia is
a poor ally in the fight against ISIS.
— Anna Borshchevskaya