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Bible Quotations For Today

Mary said, ‘My soul magnifies the Lord, and my spirit rejoices in God my Saviour, for he has looked with favour on the lowliness of his servant.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 01/46-55: "Mary said, ‘My soul magnifies the Lord, and my spirit rejoices in God my Saviour, for he has looked with favour on the lowliness of his servant. Surely, from now on all generations will call me blessed; for the Mighty One has done great things for me, and holy is his name. His mercy is for those who fear him from generation to generation. He has shown strength with his arm; he has scattered the proud in the thoughts of their hearts. He has brought down the powerful from their thrones, and lifted up the lowly; he has filled the hungry with good things, and sent the rich away empty. He has helped his servant Israel, in remembrance of his mercy, according to the promise he made to our ancestors, to Abraham and to his descendants for ever.’"

In him we have redemption through his blood, the forgiveness of our trespasses, according to the riches of his grace that he lavished on us.
Letter to the Ephesians 01/03-14: "Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, who has blessed us in Christ with every spiritual blessing in the heavenly places, just as he chose us in Christ before the foundation of the world to be holy and blameless before him in love. He destined us for adoption as his children through Jesus Christ, according to the good pleasure of his will, to the praise of his glorious grace that he freely bestowed on us in the Beloved. In him we have redemption through his blood, the forgiveness of our trespasses, according to the riches of his grace that he lavished on us. With all wisdom and insight he has made known to us the mystery of his will, according to his good pleasure that he set forth in Christ, as a plan for the fullness of time, to gather up all things in him, things in heaven and things on earth. In Christ we have also obtained an inheritance, having been destined according to the purpose of him who accomplishes all things according to his counsel and will, so that we, who were the first to set our hope on Christ, might live for the praise of his glory. In him you also, when you had heard the word of truth, the gospel of your salvation, and had believed in him, were marked with the seal of the promised Holy Spirit; this is the pledge of our inheritance towards redemption as God’s own people, to the praise of his glory."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 25-26/15
The True Meaning Of Christmas Is Love/Elias Bejjani/December 25/15
The (Israeli Defence Forces)IDF's warning to Nasrallah/Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/December 25/15
Hezbollah's Russian Military Education in Syria/Brig. Gen. Muni Katz, IDF and Nadav Pollak/Washington Institute/December 25/15
Sanctions Relief Is Not the Key to Iran's Economy/Patrick Clawson/Washinton Institute/December 25/15
The IDF's warning to Nasrallah/Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/December 25/15
Grim Life for Christians in Muslim Pakistan/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/December 25/15
Christians in Nigeria: Having Nothing but Everything/Alan Craig/Gatestone Institute/December 25/15
Which U.S. presidential candidate is Iran’s favorite/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/December 25/15
Libyan deal on course, but who is on board/Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/December 25/15
Assad’s presence obstructing a solution in Syria/Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/December 25/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 25-26/15
The True Meaning Of Christmas Is Love
Hezbollah Developing Naval Warfare Capacity, Arsenal Has 100,000 Rockets, Says Senior Israeli Defense Official
Report: Presidential Initiative Awaits U.S. Gesture Next Month
Fugitive ex-MP Ali Eid Passes Away in Syria
Yaaqoub from Prison: My Dignity is 'Higher than Their Chairs'
Jumblat: Iran Thwarted the Presidential Initiative
Families Use RPGs, Machineguns in Baalbek Armed Clash
Jumblat Warns of Imminent Corruption 'Scandal' in Telecom Sector
Report: Libyan Delegation in Beirut to Demand Gadhafi's Release
Hamra Diesel Blaze Doused before Reaching Residential Buildings

The True Meaning Of Christmas Is Love
Elias Bejjani/December 25/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/12/25/elias-bejjani-the-christmas-faith-pillars/
Christmas simply means, love and Fatherhood, Equality and modesty, Sacrifice and forgiveness.
Love and Fatherhood: Almighty God Is Our Father and that's why He created us in His image and likeness.
Modesty and Equality: Jesus Christ, the begotten God was born in a manger to be a role Model in Modesty & Equality.
Sacrifice and Forgiveness: Almighty God has sent His begotten son to be humiliated, tortured, persecuted and crucified in a bid to absolve our original sin and to be a role model in love and sacrifice.
The true meaning of Christmas is love. (John 03:16-17) says, "For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life. For God did not send his Son into the world to condemn the world, but to save the world through him."
The true meaning of Christmas is the celebration of this incredible act of love. The real Christmas story is the story of God's becoming a human being in the Person of Jesus Christ. Why did God do such a thing? Because He loves us! Why was Christmas necessary? Because we needed a Savior! Why does God love us so much? Because He is love itself (1 John 4:8). Why do we celebrate Christmas each year? Out of gratitude for what God did for us, we remember His birth by giving each other gifts, worshipping Him, and being especially conscious of the poor and less fortunate. The true meaning of Christmas is love. God loved His own and provided a way—the only Way—for us to spend eternity with Him. He gave His only Son to take our punishment for our sins. He paid the price in full, and we are free from condemnation when we accept that free gift of love. "But God demonstrated His own love for us in this: while we were still sinners, Christ died for us" (Romans 5:8). (Got.Question.org)
Understanding and fully practising the above faith pillars makes us the kind of holy God's children that He wants us to go back to His heavenly homes that He Himself built for us. The Holy Bible teaches us to be love care, help, and forgive every one, but in particular those who hate, harm, betray and curse us. "Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you" (Matthew 05:44) .In this context let us on this Holy Christmas Day, Pray For all the evildoers and all those who fell prey for temptations. Let us offer our authentic and honest prayers for the repentance and salvation of all sinners
Let us pray for those evil and wicked world leaders, rulers, politicians, fundamentalists and outlawed militants whose devastating culture of greed and vicious acts of terrorism are threatening peace and tranquility all over the world, and especially in the Middle East.
Apostle Paul in his Letter to the Romans speaks about these evil people and describes thoroughly their thinking and conduct (Romans03/10-18: "As it is written, ‘There is no one righteous; no, not one. There is no one who understands. There is no one who seeks after God. They have all turned aside. They have together become unprofitable. There is no one who does good, no, not, so much as one.Their throat is an open tomb. With their tongues they have used deceit. The poison of vipers is under their lips; “whose mouth is full of cursing and bitterness. Their feet are swift to shed blood. Destruction and misery are in their ways. The way of peace, they haven’t known. There is no fear of God before their eyes."
One might wonder why we should pray and particularly on the Christmas Day for those that are creating world-wide havoc, advocate grudges and hatred, classify us as infidels, allege we are their worst enemies, call openly for our death, and proudly legitimize our slaughter?
The answer is very simple. We should pray for them because they are lost, evil, morally sick and need our help. Jesus has already answered this question in (Matthew 9/12 & 13): "Those who are healthy have no need for a physician, but those who are sick do. But you go and learn what this means: I desire mercy, and not sacrifice, for I came not to call the righteous, but sinners to repentance.".
The faithful and righteous have an obligation to love their enemies and forgive them as well as to bless those who hate, persecute and curse them. (Luke 6:28): "bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you."
The secret and magic formula word in all this holy cycle of forgiveness, meekness, patience, endurance and acceptance of others is LOVE, and as the bible teaches us LOVE is GOD. (Proverbs 19:11): "A man's wisdom gives him patience; it is to his glory to overlook an offense".
Apostle Paul in his First Letter to the Corinthians explains what love is and what it encompasses: (1 Corinthians 13/4-13): "Love is patient and is kind; love doesn’t envy. Love doesn’t brag, is not proud, doesn’t behave itself inappropriately, doesn’t seek its own way, is not provoked, takes no account of evil; doesn’t rejoice in unrighteousness, but rejoices with the truth; 1 bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things. Love never fails. But where there are prophecies, they will be done away with. Where there are various languages, they will cease. Where there is knowledge, it will be done away with. For we know in part, and we prophesy in part; but when that which is complete has come, then that which is partial will be done away with. When I was a child, I spoke as a child, I felt as a child, I thought as a child. Now that I have become a man, I have put away childish things. For now we see in a mirror, dimly, but then face to face. Now I know in part, but then I will know fully, even as I was also fully known. But now faith, hope, and love remain—these three. The greatest of these is love."
If we love those who love us, help those who do not need help, pray for those who are righteous, and feed those who are not hungry, we do nothing different from anybody else including the sinners and wicked. But when we can tame ourselves to love those who hate us and help those who need help, than we are making something different. (01 Samuel 24:17): "You are more righteous than I, he said. You have treated me well, but I have treated you badly."
Almighty God loves us, we His children, and wants us to return back to His heavenly mansions that have been prepared for us. Therefore, He has sent His begotten son to be humiliated, tortured, persecuted and crucified in a bid absolve our original sin and be a role model in love and sacrifice.(John15/12 & 13) “This is my commandment, that you love one another, even as I have loved you. Greater love has no one than this, that someone lay down his life for his friends"
With the Christmas Spirit let all genuinely pray for those of us who are hurt, lonely, feel betrayed and deserted by their beloved ones. Those who are enduring in silence pain, anguish, and are deprived of happiness, warmth and joy on this holy and adorned day.
Let us all take Jesus a role model in our lives. Let us learn from Him the graces of forgiveness, sacrifice, love and the obligation for helping those who need our help and even those who hate and hurt us. (Romans 12:20:) "If your enemy is hungry, feed him; if he is thirsty, give him something to drink. In doing this, you will heap burning coals on his head."
May God Bless you all and shower upon you, your families, friends, and beloved ones all graces of joy, health, love, forgiveness, meekness and hope. (01 Thessalonians 05:15): "Make sure that nobody pays back wrong for wrong, but always try to be kind to each other and to everyone else".
Let us all to pray for the salvation of our beloved country of Lebanon and ask Almighty God to lead and bless the peace endeavours of righteous politicians and leaders all over the world.
On this Christmas Day may Jesus Christ, God of love, justice and mercy, dwell in your hearts, minds, souls and conscience to purify you and lead your steps into righteousness.
Merry Christmas

Hezbollah Developing Naval Warfare Capacity, Arsenal Has 100,000 Rockets, Says Senior Israeli Defense Official
December 25, 2015 /Algemeiner Staff/Hezbollah has more than 100,000 rockets in its arsenal, Israeli Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad told Israeli news website nrg in an exclusive interview on Friday. Gilad, who is director of the Political-Military Affairs Bureau at the Israeli Defense Ministry, also told nrg that the Lebanese-based terrorist group has been building up its capacities for naval warfare, including acquiring Russian anti-ship P-800 Oniks missiles, also known as the Yakhont. These missiles can be used against maritime and land targets, but also offshore gas rigs, said Gilad, a reference to Israel’s nascent and lucrative natural gas infrastructure. Gilad said Hezbollah was uninterested in attacking Israel at the current time, both deterred by Israel and also bogged down in fighting on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Assad in the Syrian civil war. There, Gilad said, the group has lost hundreds of fighters, echoing a recent Israeli report which suggested up to 1,500 Hezbollah fighters had already died in Syria. “On the other hand, [Hezbollah] is determined to continue building its forces against us,” said Gilad. Gilad’s comments came after Israel reportedly assassinated a senior Hezbollah operative, Samir Kuntar, in a precision-guided missile attack on a residential building just outside Damascus. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has vowed revenge. Gilad also noted that the hand behind Hezbollah’s activities is Iran. He said the group is being directed by Qasem Soleimani, a commander in Iran’s Quds Force, who he said “travels around the Middle East promoting the affairs of the Iranian-Shia empire.”The Israeli defense official was also pessimistic that the deal signed between Iran and five world powers in July would keep the country from secret nuclear weapons work. “The day will come when they’ll build the [nuclear] infrastructure,” he said.
“They’ll do everything to get back to secret operations. Maybe the world pounced on them at first, but because of the nuclear deal they’re enjoying the removal of the economic stranglehold,” he said, referring to the process of lifting international sanctions outlined in the nuclear deal.
http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/12/25/hezbollah-developing-naval-warfare-capacity-arsenal-has-100000-rockets-says-senior-israeli-defense-official/

Report: Presidential Initiative Awaits U.S. Gesture Next Month
Naharnet/December 25/15/Political parties supporting the initiative settlement that suggested the nomination of Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the post of the presidency, pin hopes on a U.S. mobility that could push the initiative forward, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. “Parties involved in the settlement are betting on a U.S. action next month that could lead to the passing of the initiative,” well informed sources told the daily. “However, the parties who rejected it are very likely prepared to take their own steps that could bring the presidential entitlement back to square one,” they added.
“Some officials have even denied the existence of a presidential settlement put forward by al-Mustaqbal Movement chief Saad Hariri, which indicates a regress in the initiative and an attempt by the parties concerned to renounce it,” the sources added on condition of anonymity. Franjieh emerged as presidential candidate as part of an initiative launched by Hariri aimed at ending the political deadlock in Lebanon. His potential nomination has been met with reservations from the Kataeb Party, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces. Early in December, the U.S. embassy in Lebanon invited several representatives of Christian figures to lunch in a move aimed at envisioning their stances regarding the presidential settlement and the nomination of Franjieh. It stressed then the need to elect a head of state, highlighting the latest meetings between U.S. Chargé d'Affaires ad interim Richard Jones and several political leaders including the Christian figures to that end.

Fugitive ex-MP Ali Eid Passes Away in Syria
Naharnet/December 25/15/Ex-MP and former head of the Arab Democratic Party, Ali Eid, has died in Syria, Lebanon's National News Agency reported on Friday. LBCI television said Eid, 75, passed away in the Syrian coastal city of Tartus, a bastion of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime.
Eid was wanted in Lebanon in connection with the 2013 twin bombings that targeted Tripoli's al-Salam and al-Taqwa mosques and left 45 people dead and over 500 wounded. Eid and his son Rifaat, also wanted in Lebanon, were spotted in early March on the Syrian side of the border town of Hikr al-Daheri on Lebanon's frontier. They were participating in the funeral of Bader Eid -- a brother of the ex-MP -- who was shot dead in the Akkar town of al-Kuweikhat. A 2014 indictment had demanded the death penalty for Rifaat Eid and three senior Jabal Mohsen fighters. The two fugitives, Ali and Rifaat Eid, had managed to flee to Syria as an unprecedented security plan got underway in Tripoli in April 2014.Eid's pro-Damascus Arab Democratic Party, the main faction in Jabal Mohsen, participated in more than 20 rounds of deadly sectarian fighting with gunmen from the neighboring Bab al-Tabbaneh district between 2008 and 2014.

Yaaqoub from Prison: My Dignity is 'Higher than Their Chairs'
Naharnet/December 25/15/Former MP Hassan Yaaqoub has addressed a scathing message to Lebanese politicians in an audio recording apparently leaked from prison. “No one can break my dignity,” says Yaaqoub in the message, which was posted Friday on the websites of the MTV and al-Jadeed television networks. “Political negotiations are forbidden. No one should engage in political negotiations” over my case, the former lawmaker adds. “I'll stay here (in prison) as much as they want,” a defiant Yaaqoub says. Apparently referring to Lebanese politicians, he added: “My dignity is 'higher than their chairs.'"An arrest warrant for the already detained Yaaqoub was issued on Monday in connection with the abduction of Hannibal Gadhafi, the high-rolling son of late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. The former lawmaker was arrested on December 18 and he has denied any involvement in the kidnap operation. Hannibal Gadhafi, who resided in Syria, was kidnapped on December 11 in Lebanon's Bekaa valley near the Syrian border, but was freed by police hours later. Earlier this week, Lebanese authorities charged Hannibal Gadhafi with withholding information about the disappearance of revered Shiite cleric and founder of the AMAL Movement Moussa al-Sadr, who vanished in Libya in 1978 along with two companions. A security source has told AFP that investigators discovered that Yaaqoub had orchestrated an elaborate scheme to seize Gadhafi from Syria and bring him to Lebanon. "They discovered that Yaaqoub had worked with a woman named Fatima to lure Gadhafi from (the coastal Syrian province) Latakia to Damascus, then to Lebanon," he said. Yaaqoub is the son of Sheikh Mohammed Yaaqoub – one of the two companions who disappeared with al-Sadr in Libya in 1978. The Libya visit was paid upon the invitation of then Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi – Hannibal's father. The three were seen lastly on August 31. They were never heard from again. The Lebanese judiciary had indicted Moammar Gadhafi in 2008 over al-Sadr's disappearance, although Libya had consistently denied responsibility, claiming that the imam and his companions had left Libya for Italy.

Jumblat: Iran Thwarted the Presidential Initiative
Naharnet/December 25/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat blamed Iran for thwarting the presidential initiative settlement that suggested the nomination of Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the top state post, As Safir daily reported on Friday. “(Al-Mustaqbal Movement chief Saad) Hariri suggested the initiative with a Saudi approval and Iran rejected it and that was enough to freeze it,” Jumblat told the daily. “Who knows, maybe when the U.S. starts lifting sanctions against Iran then it would sell the initiative back to the U.S.” he added. “Although the initiative that suggested the nomination of Franjieh for the presidency reached a dead end but the nomination of Franjieh in principle did not fail," stated the MP. The PSP leader added: “I urge all political parties, with the beginning of the new year, to focus on activating the cabinet's work and to look into the people's affairs.”Lebanon is witnessing a state of presidential vacuum since May 2014 when the term of President Michel Suleiman ended. An initiative by Hariri emerged lately suggesting the nomination of Franjieh for the post.
The settlement was faced with reservation of the Kataeb party, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces.

Families Use RPGs, Machineguns in Baalbek Armed Clash
Naharnet/December 25/15/A dispute between two families escalated into an armed clash involving the use of shoulder-fired rockets and machineguns in a Baalbek neighborhood on Friday, state-run National News Agency reported. The dispute started between young men from the Jaafar and Shuqeir families before members of the Wehbe family intervened in favor of the Shuqeir family, NNA said. The fighting damaged two houses and several cars and the army has since contained the incident, the agency added. “The clash erupted after a young man from the Jaafar family crashed his speeding car into a car belonging to H. Shuqeir,” NNA said.

Jumblat Warns of Imminent Corruption 'Scandal' in Telecom Sector
Naharnet/December 25/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat warned Friday that the country is “about to witness a new, resounding scandal in the telecommunications sector.” “Against the backdrop of the call for tenders of the mobile network operators, Telecom Ministry officials in coordination with some ministers, advisers and political leaders have started their activities in this regard and they're about to pounce on this lucrative sector to benefit from its revenues,” Jumblat said in a press release, describing the alleged schemers as “predator wolves.”“Some of those who weep daily over the presidential void and demand the election of a president are in a hurry to finalize the deals before the election of a new head of state,” Jumblat charged. He noted that a call for tenders that was supposed to be held in recent weeks was postponed in a “mysterious and very suspicious manner.”“As the contracts of the current operators Alfa and MTC Touch near their expiry date, the suggested solutions that are being circulated behind the scenes do not reflect any transparency,” Jumblat said. The reports indicate that “this key source of income that generates major revenues for the treasury is about to witness a new wave of distribution of shares and cronyism,” the PSP leader warned. “The ideal solution is not in giving the sector to advisers and individuals who are close to certain leaders or ministers without any legal justification … but rather in quickly conducting a serious call for tenders that would allow real competition, in order to develop the sector and achieve a better level of services and fees,” Jumblat went on to say.

Report: Libyan Delegation in Beirut to Demand Gadhafi's Release
Naharnet/December 25/15/A governmental Libyan delegation is expected to arrive in Beirut on Friday for a meeting with Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi to tackle the case of Hannibal Gadhafi, al-Akhbar daily reported.
“A delegation is expected to arrive in Beirut and will be headed by the First Adviser to the Libyan Justice Ministry and is expected to ask the Lebanese authorities to release Gadhafi,” judicial sources told the daily on condition of anonymity. Early in December, the Lebanese judiciary issued an arrest warrant for Hannibal Moammar Gadhafi after a day of interrogation at the Justice Palace. The sources added that the delegation will request the release of Hannibal because “he is not wanted on any charges in Libya and the Interpol memorandum that was issued against him was frozen in March at the request of the ministry.”Hannibal was handed over to Lebanese authorities after a brief abduction in Lebanon at the hands of an armed group. He had described his captors as "loyal to the cause of Imam Moussa al-Sadr," the founder of Lebanon's AMAL Movement who disappeared while on a trip to Libya in 1978.

Hamra Diesel Blaze Doused before Reaching Residential Buildings
Naharnet/December 25/15/A major fire was extinguished on Friday in the Beirut district of Hamra, the state-run National News Agency reported.“The Beirut Fire Brigade has managed to bring under control a blaze that ripped through diesel tanks in the Bristol area,” NNA said. It said the diesel reservoirs supply private power generators in the area. “Several firefighting vehicles took part in putting out the flames, which prevented their spread to the residential buildings,” the agency added.

Prominent Rebel Commander Zahran Alloush Killed in Air Raid near Damascus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 25/15/Zahran Alloush, head of the powerful Jaish al-Islam Syrian rebel group, was killed on Friday east of Damascus, a monitoring group and both Syria's opposition and regime said. His death "stands as one of the most significant opposition losses" of Syria's nearly five-year uprising, analyst Charles Lister said on Twitter. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor said Alloush and five other commanders were killed "in an air strike that targeted one of their meetings in Eastern Ghouta." The death of Alloush, 44, was confirmed on Twitter by the head of Syria's opposition National Coalition, who posted a message of condolence. Syria's state television channel also reported the death by air strike, but did not say who had carried out the raid. Jaish al-Islam is the most prominent rebel faction in the Eastern Ghouta region, an opposition bastion east of the capital, and was recently represented at landmark opposition talks in Saudi Arabia. The Syrian government regularly refers to the group as "terrorists." Alloush's death comes after Syria's army announced a massive operation to retake rebel-held Eastern Ghouta. The regime's forces have been backed by Russian air strikes since September 30. Jaish al-Islam was known to have extremist views and to have supported the establishment of an Islamic state before recently moving towards a more moderate position.
Alloush spent at least two years in Syrian prisons before being released in a general amnesty in June 2011.

Huge Clearup after Storms Kill 14 in U.S.
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 25/15/Rescue workers and heartbroken residents sifted through what was left of homes wiped out by a series of ferocious storms and tornadoes that tore through swathes of the United States, killing 14 people. The storms, feeding on unseasonable warm air, left a trail of destruction in rural communities from Illinois to Alabama, just as Christmas reached its crescendo. More than a dozen tornadoes were reported in six states but Mississippi, in the south, was hardest hit. Seven people were reported dead there, said the state's Emergency Management Agency (MEMA). "Most of these storms caused a lot of damage in north Mississippi but our teams are out assessing the damage, trying to put a quantity on how many homes and how many businesses have been damaged," the emergency agency's Brett Carr said Thursday. Among the dead in Mississippi was a boy of seven after one particularly brutal storm picked up and tossed the car he was traveling in, fire chief Kenny Holbrook told reporters in the town of Holly Springs, where thousands greeted Christmas Day without power. Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant declared a state of emergency in seven counties after the storms caused widespread damage. Debris from ravaged buildings and other structures littered roads, making them unpassable. Officials were inviting volunteers to step up or make donations as people who fled returned to their homes to see what was left standing, if anything. Some were left in tears. Television footage and pictures posted on social media showed homes flattened across several states, with possessions and Christmas presents strewn on the ground or left in a messy heap. Power lines, trees and mobile phone towers were also toppled. The worst appeared to be over, however forecasters at the National Weather Service warned of flash floods in the U.S. southeast. The U.S. East Coast meanwhile is enjoying unseasonably warm weather, with temperatures in New York's iconic Central Park peaking at 72 degrees Fahrenheit (22 Celsius) Thursday, the warmest Christmas Eve since records began in 1871.

Anglican leader warns of Christian ‘elimination’ in Middle East
AFP, London/Friday, 25 December 2015/Anglican leader Justin Welby on Friday said Christians faced “elimination” in the Middle East by ISIS, labelling the group a modern-day version of the tyrannical biblical king Herod. ISIS has attacked Christians, Yazidis, Shiites and other minorities across the region, killing thousands and uprooting ancient communities from ancestral lands. “They hate difference, whether it is Muslims who think differently, Yazidis or Christians, and because of them the Christians face elimination in the very region in which Christian faith began,” the archbishop of Canterbury said in his Christmas Day sermon. “This apocalypse is defined by themselves and heralded only by the angel of death.” He likened ISIS to Herod, who according to historical accounts killed several members of his own family and in the Bible massacred Bethlehem’s male infants to prevent the prophesied rise of Jesus. “To all who have been or are being dehumanized by the tyranny and cruelty of a Herod or an ISIS, a Herod of today, God’s judgement... promises justice,” Welby said, using another acronym for ISIS. The group strictly enforces an austere and bloody form of what it calls Islamic law, tolerating no minority sects or even opposing points of view from their Sunni Muslim co-religionists.The Middle East is home to ancient Christian and other minority communities, but their numbers have diminished rapidly in recent years amid war and mounting religious intolerance.

Russia’s air force conducted 5,240 sorties in Syria since Sept. 30
Reuters, MoscowFriday, 25 December 2015/Russia’s air force has made 5,240 sorties since it started the strikes in Syria on Sept. 30, including 189 sorties on Thursday alone, Russia’s defence ministry told reporters on Friday. Russian long-range strategic bombers have carried out 145 sorties since Sept. 30, Sergei Rudskoi, a department chief at the General Staff of the armed forces, told a news briefing in Moscow.

Russia says its strikes reduce oil smuggling to Turkey
AFP, Moscow Friday, 25 December 2015/Russia said Friday that trucks loaded with oil continue to cross from Syria into Turkey but in lesser numbers thanks to its bombing campaign against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) jihadists. “Oil tank trucks are continuing to cross the Syrian-Turkish border,” the defence ministry said in a statement. Citing intelligence data, Moscow said the number of oil tankers moving along the so-called northern route towards a refinery in the Turkish city of Batman had gone down. The same could be seen along the western route leading to Reyhanli and Iskenderun, the two Turkish cities on the Mediterranean coast, the ministry said. “The number of oil tankers there went down to 265,” the statement said. Moscow said jihadists had been looking for new ways to smuggle oil out of Syria to avoid Russian strikes. Some of the trucks travelling from Syria are entering Turkey near the Iraqi city of Zakho on the Turkish border, the statement said. “Despite a significant ‘detour’, Turkey remains the final point of the smuggling route,” the defence ministry said. Oil tankers going through the so-called northern and western routes are mainly travelling at night, it added. “Oil tankers are disguised as ordinary trucks and travel in small columns numbering a few dozen vehicles,” the ministry said. Over the past week, Russian strikes destroyed 17 truck columns as well as 37 targets involved in the extraction and refining of oil. Overall, around 2,000 oil tank trucks have been destroyed since Russia launched a bombing campaign in Syria on September 30. Since its start, Russian armed forces have conducted 5,240 sorties in Syria, the ministry said. After Turkey shot down a Russian bomber at the Syrian border last month, Moscow accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family of involvement in the illegal oil trade with ISIS jihadists, claims Ankara has strongly denied. Earlier this month the United States said the amount of oil smuggled into Turkey from areas of Syria controlled by ISIS is economically insignificant, with Moscow accusing Washington of turning a blind eye to the trafficking.

Militants ‘to quit south Damascus suburbs’: sources
AFP, Damascus Friday, 25 December 2015/Some 4,000 people, half of them jihadist fighters, will leave three besieged districts south of Syria’s capital at the weekend as part of a landmark ceasefire, sources told AFP Friday. ISIS militant group and its rival, Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Al-Nusra Front, will reportedly quit the districts of Qadam, Hajar al-Aswad and the besieged Palestinian camp of Yarmuk. “An agreement was reached whereby 4,000 fighters and civilians, including members of Al-Nusra and ISIS, would leave” the neighborhoods on Saturday, one government official close to the negotiations said. They would then be transported to the northern cities of Raqa, held by ISIS, and Marea which is controlled by Islamists and Al-Nusra, the official said. The second phase of the deal would see government institutions reopen in the neighborhoods and “the necessities of daily life would be secured,” the official said. It will be the first time in more than two years that market goods have been able to be sent in to the three southern districts, which have been under a crippling government siege. ISIS militants attacked the Yarmuk Palestinian camp in April, fighting Al-Nusra units there for control. The militants then overran parts of Qadam in August after launching an attack from their base in nearby Hajar al-Aswad. Their advance into Qadam had brought them closer than ever to central Damascus. The ceasefire deal comes after two months of intense negotiations between Syria’s government and district leaders, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said. Speaking on condition of anonymity, one local leader in Qadam said “every fighter will be allowed to leave with his family and one suitcase and his personal weapon.” The areas are already in the process of being demilitarized. A Syrian army unit entered Qadam on Thursday to confiscate heavy weapons and military equipment used by the militants, a security source on the ground said. Eighteen buses had also crossed into the neighborhood in preparation for Saturday’s evacuation, which would include “2,000 combatants, mostly jihadists,” he added. Local ceasefires have been implemented in other parts of Syria with varying degrees of success. Typically, towns or villages under siege agree to a truce in exchange for humanitarian aid and the evacuation of wounded civilians and fighters. A similar deal earlier this month in the central city of Homs saw 2,000 rebels and civilians leave the last opposition-held neighborhood.Mohammad al-Omari, a representative of Syria’s reconciliation ministry, told AFP that the “first phase of the deal will have a positive effect on Yarmuk and all of the southern areas.”He said he hoped a “larger reconciliation process” would allow some 1.8 million people to return to the southern suburbs of Damascus. A United Nations representative in Damascus told AFP the U.N. had no role in the negotiations or developments in the southern suburbs of the capital.

Russia, U.S. agree on major terrorist groups in Mideast
Reuters, Moscow Friday, 25 December 2015/Russia and the United States have common understanding on major groups which should be considered terrorist ones in the Middle East, RIA news agency quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov as saying on Friday.

Hackers step up cyberattacks in Turkey, hit banks
Can Sezer and Ebru Tuncay, Reuters, Istanbul Friday, 25 December 2015/Turkish banks reported sporadic disruption to credit card transactions on Friday as hackers stepped up a two-week barrage of cyberattacks, believed to be the worst the country has seen. Local media have suggested that the bombardment of public and financial websites could be coming from Russia, after a sharp worsening of tensions between Moscow and Ankara, or staged by hacking group Anonymous. But no clear evidence has emerged, and authorities have avoided pointing the finger. Officials at several Turkish banks including Isbank, Garanti and state lender Ziraat Bank confirmed the attacks, saying they had caused intermittent disruption. Bank shares were unmoved by the news. “The attacks are serious,” said Onur Oz, a spokesman for Internet provider Turk Telekom. “But the target is not Turk Telekom. Instead, banks and public institutions are under heavy attack,” he said. “A majority of Turkish institutions use Turk Telekom as the service provider, therefore we are the ones doing the defence against these attacks.”A government cyber security unit was taking precautions and the incident was under control, Transport Minister Binali Yildirim said earlier this week. He did not comment specifically on the targeting of banks, and his ministry was not available for comment on Friday. “These attacks began two weeks ago but have intensified over the past two days,” said Burak Atakani, a network specialist from Istanbul Technical University. He said that the service provider used by some universities, police academies and the research department of the military had also come under attack. Nic.tr, a non-government body that administers addresses for websites using Turkey’s “.tr” domain, including ministries, the military, banks and many commercial sites, said earlier this week that the attacks originated from “organized sources” outside Turkey. Turkey incensed Russia last month by shooting down a Russian military plane near the Syrian border, and Moscow has retaliated with economic sanctions. In the past, countries such as Estonia and Georgia have suffered cyberattacks emanating from Russia after incurring Moscow's anger. Reuters sought comment from the Russian foreign ministry, but none was immediately available. Separately, the Anonymous hacking group posted a video over the weekend on YouTube, which has since been removed, saying cyberattacks would continue if Turkey “doesn’t stop supporting” ISIS. Some of Ankara’s critics, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have accused Turkey of supporting and aiding ISIS militants, a charge the government denies.

Pakistan army chief to visit Kabul in expected push to peace dialogue
AFP, IslamabadFriday, 25 December 2015/Pakistan’s army chief General Raheel Sharif will visit Kabul on Sunday to hold talks with top Afghan civil and military leaders, the military said on Friday. Afghanistan sees Pakistan’s support as vital to resuming a stalled peace dialogue with the Taliban and recently both countries have expressed resolve to work together in this regard. “COAS (Chief of Army Staff) will visit Kabul on Sunday, 27th December,” Pakistan army spokesman Lieutenant General Asim Bajwa said on Twitter. “(Sharif) will hold meetings with political and military leadership of Afghanistan,” Bajwa said. Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani travelled to Pakistan this month to open a conference that shored up international support for Taliban talks. At the Islamabad conference, Ghani and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif vowed commitment to the peace process, with the United States and China also offering support. “The visit by the army chief to Kabul is a follow up of commitments made by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani towards Afghan peace at the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad,” said security analyst Imtiaz Gul. Gul said that the resumption of dialogue with the Taliban, action against Haqqani network and other militant groups, as well as peaceful border management were likely to be discussed during talks between General Sharif, not related to Premier Sharif, and top Afghan leaders. Haqqani network comes under the umbrella of the Taliban and has been described by U.S. officials in the past as a “veritable arm” of Pakistani intelligence. Some in Washington believe Pakistan has not done enough to bring its influence to bear and to persuade the group to renounce violence. During Nawaz Sharif’s trip to the U.S. in October President Barack Obama stressed that Pakistan needed to take action against groups that undermine peaceful dialogue. Pakistan, which wields considerable influence over the Taliban, hosted a milestone first round of peace negotiations in July. But the talks stalled when the Taliban belatedly confirmed the death of longtime leader Mullah Omar, sparking a power struggle within the movement.

Indian PM Modi lands in Pakistan on surprise visit to meet PM
AFP, New Dehli/LahorFriday, 25 December 2015/Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed at Lahore airport on Friday afternoon for an unannounced visit on the birthday of his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif, weeks after a breakthrough meeting between the countries’ top diplomats.
State TV footage showed the Indian Air Force jumbo jet land at the Allama Iqbal International Airport where Sharif had flown in by helicopter moments earlier. Modi said he would meet his Pakistani counterpart Sharif in what would be the first visit to Pakistan by an Indian premier in more than 10 years. “Looking forward to meeting PM Nawaz Sharif in Lahore today afternoon, where I will drop by on my way back to Delhi,” Modi said on Twitter. The Indian prime minister made the surprise announcement as he wound up his visit to Afghanistan with an address to the Afghan parliament.
“That’s like a statesman,” Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj commented on Twitter. “One should have such relations with the neighbors,” she added. Confirming the meeting, Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman Qazi Khalilullah said: “The details of the meeting are being worked out.”
The last visit to Pakistan by an Indian prime minister was in 2004 by then leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who is credited with bringing about a thaw in relations with Islamabad. Modi and Sharif have had a stop-start diplomatic relationship since the Indian premier’s surprise invite to Sharif for his inauguration last May. Both countries’ governments have frequently disputed each other’s claims on contentious issues such as terrorism, the divided territory of Kashmir and the pace of the trial in the Mumbai terror attacks case. Earlier Friday, in his speech to the Afghan parliament, Modi urged closer cooperation between India, Pakistan and other neighbors for Afghanistan’s progress. “We know that Afghanistan’s success will require the cooperation and support of each of its neighbors. And, all of us in the region - India, Pakistan, Iran and others - must unite ... behind this common purpose,” Modi said.Modi also made a veiled reference to Pakistan on the issue of cross-border terrorism in Afghanistan. “Afghanistan will succeed only when terrorism no longer flows across the border; when nurseries and sanctuaries of terrorism are shut; and, their patrons are no longer in business,” Modi said.
India’s main opposition party, Congress, was quick to criticize Modi’s “irresponsible” decision. “Our foreign policy is going from the sublime to the ridiculous,” former union minister and Congress spokesman Manish Tewari told India’s NDTV news channel.“India-Pakistan diplomacy can’t be done irresponsibly. We want to ask PM what has changed in the last few months that he went straight to Lahore from Kabul,” Tewari said. “This is going to blow up in the PM’s face,” he added. Earlier this December, the national security advisers of both countries met in Bangkok. The development surprised many and it was announced with a joint press release only after the meeting was over. India’s foreign ministry at the time said the advisers discussed “peace and security, terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir, and other issues, including tranquility along the LoC (line of control),” the de facto border in Kashmir.

The (Israeli Defence Forces)IDF's warning to Nasrallah
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/December 25/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/12/25/ron-ben-yishaiynetnews-the-idfs-warning-to-nasrallah/
Analysis: Israeli security officials are claiming that the Hezbollah leader would be making a grave mistake if he thinks the IDF will sit quietly if his organization responds to Samir Kuntar's assassination with terror attacks.
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The IDF is taking Hassan Nasrallah's threats of revenge after the assassination of terrorist Samir Kuntar in Syria seriously. The IDF General Staff is conducting threat assessments about the way in which Nasrallah plans on realizing his threat, which bring about the fear that the Hezbollah Secretary General may mistake Israel's likely response to a revenge attack, whether it be in the north (near the Syrian or Lebanese border), abroad, or even inside Israel.
Senior IDF members remind us of Nasrallah's words in the summer of 2006, after the Second Lebanon War, in which he admitted to underestimating the Israeli government's response to the ambush in which Eldad Regev and Udi Goldwasser were kidnapped.
Israel, of course, started an operation following the kidnapping, which developed into a war in which Hezbollah and Lebanon suffered hundreds of deaths and heavy damage to population centers. Israel also suffered losses and thousands of rockets that fell inside its borders, but the damage was far lesser than that on the other side. After suffering the destructive results of that war, Hezbollah has avoided nearly all large-scale conflicts with Israeli forces for the past nine years.
Nasrallah is also underestimating Israel's intentions to respond harshly if any harm comes to its civilians, soldiers, or sovereignty. A senior IDF official has stated unequivocally that Nasrallah and Hezbollah would be making a big mistake if they perpetrated a lethal terror attack in an attempt to avenge Kuntar's assassination, which they attribute to Israel.
IDF leaders are also expressing surprise at the fact that Nasrallah maneuvered himself, in a speech he gave recently, towards a public commitment to avenge the assassination of Kuntar and two other members of the terrorist network he established. One of the two was Farhan Shaalan, a Druze man from the village of Ein Qiniyye in the northern Golan Heights who was Kuntar's spokesman.
Nasrallah, and this is well-known here too, didn't really take Kuntar and his operational capabilities very seriously. But he saw in Kuntar a symbol, perhaps because of his 29 years in prison in Israel (incarcerated terrorists are given a special status of respect and influence in Palestinian society and Arab nations).
Additionally, Nasrallah hasn't forgotten that in fact, in order to free Kuntar, he sent his men to kidnap Goldwasser and Regev. When Kuntar was released, he gave him a reception at a Beirut stadium and intertwined his reputation with Kuntar's.
However, Israeli security officials say that the situation is very different today, and that Nasrallah would be making a big mistake if he were to think Israel would not respond to a revenge attack: Firstly, because Israel is more prepared today – from an intelligence, operations, defensive, and most of all offensive point of view – for a conflict and/or war in Lebanon.
The IDF also emphasizing the fact that the Chief of General Staff (CoGS) and his deputy are both former GOCs of the Northern Command from recent years, and that they are the ones who prepared the IDF for exactly the clash into which Nastallah might drag it. On this matter it's important to note that the current head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate (AKA Aman. -ed), Major-General Herzl Halevi, was commander of the Galilee Division (AKA The 91st Division. -ed), which planned the next offensive on the Lebanese border.
The quick appointment
An interesting fact that is likely connected to the IDF's preparedness to quickly respond to any Hezbollah attack is the appointment of Colonel Aviad from the Air Force as commander of a special firing force for the Northern Command. Aviad is a fighter pilot who up until recently has headed the Air Force unit that participates in ground battles, and is replacing Artillery Corps man Ilan Levi in the position, after the latter was terminated by the CoGS over a security breach (he left classified documents in his vehicle, which was subsequently stolen with them inside. -ed).
The very fact of the quick appointment, which happened less than 48 hours after Levi's firing, of an Air Force man to a position which had always been held by land Army men, points at the need CoGS Eizenkot sees in the Northern Command being ready to quickly respond to any development. The command structure of the firing force, which was formerly focused on artillery fire with the Air Force and Navy backing it up, has also switched. The Air Force has thousands of targets all over Lebanon today, which it can strike as the result of changes that were recently implemented with its operational proceedings.
True, Hezbollah and its fighters have gained important combat experience in Syria, as well as a huge stockpile of rockets and missiles, but they've also left 1,300 of their dead on Syrian ground, and suffered thousands of wounded. This fact raises ire even among Nasrallah's Shia faction.
Western sources claim that pressure is being raised toward Nasrallah among the Lebanese factions these days to not commit a revenge attack over the Kuntar assassination, in a way that will cause Israel to powerfully retaliate against Lebanon. The main force pressuring Nasrallah is the March 14 movement, headed by Saad Hariri, son of Rafiq Hariri, the Sunni-Muslim Lebanese Prime Minister who was assassinated by Hezbollah.
The Shia faction also has voices who are calling for Nasrallah not to do irresponsible things. But what's truly surprising is the fact that the Iranians are also sending Nasrallah messages these days that say a conflict with Israel right now could cause huge damage to the efforts of preserving Bashar Assad's government in Syria, and Hezbollah and Iran's influence in Lebanon.
A Mughniyeh reminder
These facts tell us that there are forces pushing Nasrallah to act now, and across from them are levers pressuring him in order to stop a complication with Israel. According to foreign publications, at the start of this year (in January 2015) Israel struck a group of Hezbollah commanders in Syria and Iran who were planning a series of terror attacks in the Israeli Golan Heights area. Seven of those commanders were killed in the strike, among them Jihad Mughnuyeh (son of Hezbollah leader Imad Mughniyeh) and an Iranian general.
In retaliation, Hezbollah fired anti-tank missiles at a convoy of Givati Brigade fighters who were coming down from Har Dov – which Hezbollah calls the Shebaa farms. An officer and a fighter were killed in the attack, but Israel did not respond. That doesn't mean that the balance over that attack is squared in Israel's eyes, say security officials.
The IDF also mentions that Nasrallah sees the slopes of Hart Dov as a kind of "playground" where it can legitimately fire at Israel, since it considers the place to be occupied Lebanese ground. The facts are different, but it's not important. What's important is that it's likely that Hezbollah will try to penetrate the 'Shebaa farms' again to perpetrate another revenge attack. That's what the IDF is trying to prevent, to the benefit of all sides. Memorably, CoGS Gadi Eizenkot promised, when he was GOC Northern Command, a disproportionate response to any Hezbollah provocation.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4744186,00.html

Hezbollah's Russian Military Education in Syria
Brig. Gen. Muni Katz, IDF and Nadav Pollak/December 25/15/Washington Institute
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/12/25/brig-gen-muni-katz-idf-and-nadav-pollak-hezbollahs-russian-military-education-in-syria/
Working alongside Russian forces will likely enhance the group's ongoing shift toward a more offensive-minded strategy, with significant implications for the planning and conduct of any future conflicts against Israel.
For the first time in its history, Hezbollah is conducting offensive maneuver warfare as part of its operations in Syria. The Russian intervention is only enhancing that experience, likely giving the group important lessons for future conflicts.
Thus far, Hezbollah has long followed a strategy of defense and attrition in hostilities against its main enemy, Israel -- an approach that many high-ranking officers in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) liked to call "not losing." Taking into account Israel's manpower and technological advantages, this strategy focused on prolonging the fighting as much as possible, maintaining home-front attrition by firing rockets on Israeli population centers, and increasing the costs of IDF ground maneuvers in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah displayed this defensive mindset during the 2006 war when it hid rockets and fighters in elaborate networks of underground fortifications and areas of dense vegetation that Israeli officers dubbed "nature reserves." The group believed that as long as it did not crumble, it could claim that it survived a war with the mighty IDF, which according to its narrative was actually a win. The Syria war has changed this defensive paradigm, however.
NEW EXPERIENCE, NEW STRATEGY
In Syria, Hezbollah has had to shift its main objectives to taking over territory and maintaining control over it, all while fighting quasi-conventional forces that use guerrilla tactics. Against the IDF, the group was accustomed to fighting in small units on familiar terrain, but now it is deploying hundreds of fighters in complex offensive operations on unfamiliar territory. For Hezbollah's commanders and fighters, such experience can change their views on the most effective way to win a battle, and Russia's involvement means that they are learning such lessons from one of the best militaries in the world.
From the start, Russia has depended on Syrian, Iranian, Hezbollah, and other Shiite forces to get the job done on the ground. Given the complexity of the campaign and Moscow's desire to avoid perceptions of failure, Russian forces are probably maintaining very close cooperation with their partners to make sure they are executing their missions. Reports indicate that joint Hezbollah-Russian operations rooms have been established in Latakia and Damascus, while Hezbollah and Iranian personnel apparently helped recover a downed Russian pilot in November. Moscow still seems reluctant to add significant ground forces to the fight, so it will need to strengthen such coordination even further.
PLANNING AND EXECUTING A MILITARY CAMPAIGN
On the macro level, Hezbollah will be exposed to Russian military thought, which entails sophisticated operational concepts and advanced military planning skills. The Russian military has ample experience in conducting different types of operations, including counterinsurgency and conventional campaigns. Consider this scenario: a Russian commander sits with Hezbollah, Iranian, and Syrian commanders and lays out the military strategy for the Syria campaign. He talks about the objectives, the timeframe to achieve these objectives, and the priorities in the fight. He then emphasizes which assets can be instrumental in battle, and perhaps offers important lessons from past operations such as the counterinsurgency campaign in Chechnya. For Hezbollah, this will be the first time it will be able to watch how a first-tier military plans a fighting campaign.
Learning processes such as these happen all the time. For example, Syria's experience as part of the American coalition during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 transformed its war strategy altogether. After witnessing firsthand the effects of a U.S. AirLand battle and the efficiency of precision-guided munitions, the Syrian military correctly inferred that Israel could employ some of the same munitions and tactics. Accordingly, the regime shifted its focus from thinking about how to conquer the Golan Heights to a more defensive strategy that entailed restructuring certain units and procuring/developing multiple antitank, fire, and improvised explosive device capabilities.
In addition, when actors are planning a joint military campaign involving simultaneous air and ground offensives, they usually share intelligence with each other, and the current war is no exception -- the Russians have probably shared battlefield intelligence with Hezbollah in Syria and exposed the group to its intelligence assets. This would not be the first time they have done so. During the 2006 Lebanon war, a joint Syrian-Russian intelligence post located in Syrian territory passed intelligence reports to Hezbollah.
More generally, the group may be getting a good look at how Russian analysts combine signal, visual, and open-source intelligence to present a better picture of the enemy and the battlefield. This likely includes the use of satellite imagery, aerial footage from Orlan-10 drones, advanced signals intelligence capabilities, and electronic warfare elements. Such observations would be particularly valuable because Hezbollah has not had much experience in maximizing visual intelligence from drones and incorporating it with other intelligence.
Working with the Russians will also help the group learn how to execute complex offensive operations in urban environments. In previous conflicts, Hezbollah tactics focused on guerrilla warfare, with small units responsible for defending their villages or blocking IDF movements. This approach does not apply to many battles in Syria, where Hezbollah has often had to deploy much larger units in offensive operations in tandem with artillery and aerial assets. Russian forces have extensive urban warfare experience, so they likely have many pointers for the group, including how to organize an effective command-and-control structure, how to choose different weapons for different scenarios, how to create additional targets after entering a battlefield, and how to maintain logistical routes.
In Chechnya, for example, the Russians formed "Storm" detachments composed of snipers, soldiers with automatic weapons, forward observers, and reconnaissance personnel -- an approach meant to maximize mobility and flexibility. They also used numerous rocket launchers (e.g., the TOS-1 mobile thermobaric multiple rocket launcher and the man-portable RPO-A Shmel) while maneuvering inside the Chechen capital of Grozny, indicating good coordination between different elements. Discussing these tactics with experienced Russian commanders could give Hezbollah deep insight into properly task-organizing its forces, effectively coordinating disparate elements on the battlefield, and other matters -- an invaluable benefit despite the group's lesser training and equipment compared to Russian troops.
PREPARING FOR FUTURE CONFLICTS
When military commanders experience a long, difficult campaign, their thoughts inevitably stray to potential future conflicts. This often means translating the lessons they have learned into new strategies and new tactics -- and new approaches to military procurement and training. Hezbollah commanders in Syria are no doubt already thinking about such issues, and fighting alongside the Russians could greatly affect their conclusions.
On the strategic level, the group no longer seems married to its "not losing" mindset, instead focusing on ways to achieve perceived victories early in a given conflict. In 2011, for example, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mentioned that his forces plan to infiltrate Israel's northern border during the next war in order to conquer settlements in the Galilee, and he has repeated this sentiment since then. This is a major departure from the group's traditional defensive paradigm, and conversations with Russian commanders could cement that shift and help the group further develop its offensive strategies.
On the tactical level, Hezbollah now has a front-row seat to watch the variety of weapons systems and equipment the Russians are bringing to bear in Syria, some of which it has never seen before. Thus, the group can learn how to use its existing weapons (some of which are Russian made) more effectively and examine systems it might want to procure in the future. Recently, for example, reports indicated that Hezbollah has acquired SA-22 surface-to-air missiles. Russia has brought the same system into Syria -- if these weapons are put into use under the supervision of joint operations rooms, Hezbollah personnel could get a better sense of how to operate the system's radar and deal with multiple targets at the same time. Similarly, they will witness how Russian ground forces use rocket systems such as the TOS-1 and RPO-A Shmel, which have already been spotted in Syria and might seem useful to the group in a future war with Israel. Even experience with superior Russian versions of basic equipment could prove crucial, including night-vision goggles, tactical vests, and medical supplies.
REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
Almost three months have passed since Moscow began its campaign in Syria, signaling its strong commitment to preserving the Assad regime. Given that Russia and Hezbollah are not retreating anytime soon, the group's learning process will continue. Furthermore, Russia is reportedly in the process of increasing its military presence (e.g., see PolicyWatch 2531, "The Costs of Russia's Air Expeditionary Campaign"), so Hezbollah may get the chance to learn additional lessons.
Recent history has also shown that whatever Hezbollah learns, its partners in crime will soon follow suit. Numerous terrorist organizations have studied and implemented the group's military tactics -- in some cases, Hezbollah even sent trainers to help certain proxies upgrade their capabilities. For example, Hezbollah-trained Shiite militias demonstrated such tactics against American soldiers in Iraq prior to the U.S. withdrawal (see PolicyWatch 2277, "Hezbollah in Iraq: A Little Help Can Go a Long Way"). High-ranking Hezbollah veterans also reportedly trained Houthi forces in Yemen, who are now showing significant capabilities in their fight against the Arab coalition. And in Gaza, terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have long implemented Hezbollah strategies in the political and the military realms.
Moreover, as Hezbollah learns from the Russians, it will become even more capable relative to the Lebanese Armed Forces, which are already weaker than the group in terms of fighting experience and weapons. Tilting the balance of power further in Hezbollah's favor is a dangerous prospect given Lebanon's atmosphere of heightened instability and factional tension.
Regarding Israel, it is important to note that while Hezbollah is gaining valuable experience in Syria, the enemies they face there are far weaker than the IDF. Jabhat al-Nusra, the Islamic State, and various rebel factions all have their strengths, but they do not present the same challenges as a war against a well-trained military with a highly capable air force, navy, and army, all of whom know Hezbollah very well. The group will learn important lessons, but implementing them will be very challenging, especially when the rival is the IDF.
As Russia entered the Syrian theatre in September, Nasrallah told al-Manar Television that Moscow was "playing a positive role that will have a positive outcome, God willing." The Russian military education that Hezbollah will receive in the coming months will only reinforce the group's optimism -- and capabilities.
Muni Katz, a brigadier general in the IDF, is a 2015-2016 visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. Nadav Pollak is the Institute's Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Fellow.

Sanctions Relief Is Not the Key to Iran's Economy
Patrick Clawson/Washinton Institute/December 25/15
Rouhani's election pledge to improve the economy by resolving the nuclear issue is not working particularly well because of the many domestic policy challenges.
Iranian president Hassan Rouhani has been eager to schedule the nuclear deal's Implementation Day before the February midterm elections in order to demonstrate that the economy is on the mend. But a December 21 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report documents the many challenges facing Iran's economy even if sanctions relief arrives soon, and the 2016/17 budget that Rouhani sent to the Majlis on December 22 does little to address those challenges.
A WEAK YEAR
Rouhani's election promise to restore economic growth by completing a nuclear deal looked pretty good in 2014/15 (Iranian years begin March 20). The modest easing of sanctions and improved confidence contributed to 3% GDP growth that year, while consumer prices rose only 15% compared to 35% the year before. On September 6, 2014, Rouhani told an audience in Mashhad, "Today, we can thankfully announce that we have passed through the recession."
But then things went sour. The IMF forecasts that in 2015/16, GDP will end up someplace between shrinking 0.5% and growing 0.5%, while consumer prices will increase at the same rate as last year. Unemployment is expected to rise from 10.4% in 2013/14 to 11.9% this year. The Tehran Stock Exchange index is 30% below the January 2014 peak, and imports are forecast to fall 10% this year.
On September 9, the ministers of defense, labor, economy/finance, and industries/commerce wrote to Rouhani complaining about economic policy. In mid-October, his administration adopted a stimulus package, lowering the interbank interest rate, reducing bank reserve requirements, and providing lending facilities for domestically made consumer durables and non-oil exports.
NOT MUCH DONE TO RESTORE ECONOMIC ORDER
Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration was rightly savaged for its mismanagement and opacity, yet the Rouhani team has not lived up to the high hopes that it would run a tighter ship. A year and a half into his term, as the IMF report delicately puts it, "The exact amount of public debt is not known precisely, as only a limited part of debt is recorded...Preliminary estimates of Iran's public debt are expected by end-2015." The debt includes an unknown amount of arrears owed to businesses run up in the past two years: "The authorities were finalizing an inventory of all government arrears and a strategy to clear them." Moreover, information is fragmentary at best about the finances of a long list of governmental and quasigovernmental bodies, including the subsidy-providing government agency, regional governments, nonfinancial public enterprises, regional governments, and public foundations.
The banking system is in bad shape as well. The section of the IMF report covering Iran's banks is titled "Unlocking Balance Sheets: An Immediate Priority to Support Growth," and it opens with an ominous warning: "The complexity and severity of the challenges facing the banking system require immediate action." Thus far, the Rouhani team has accomplished little on this front: "[The authorities] explained that an initial financial health check of banks had been finalized, suggesting substantially higher levels of [non-performing loans], and they expect to initiate a more detailed assessment of the largest banks soon."
Rouhani has also failed to tackle the problem of overvalued currency. The IMF report points out that "overvaluation...persisted over the last year," noting that "economic fundamentals would have called for a depreciation." The December 22 budget draft compounds the problem by assuming that the 2016/17 exchange rate will remain unchanged at 29,970 rials per dollar. Unlike the Rouhani team, Ahmadinejad took tough action on this issue when needed -- in late 2012, facing the consequences of heavy U.S. and European pressure on oil sales, his administration bit the bullet and implemented substantial devaluation, which boosted government revenue in rials from the remaining oil sales and also stimulated industry and agriculture. Local products became more attractive as import prices rose, and exports earned more.
In general, economists recommend "countercyclical" fiscal and monetary policy: that is, budget surpluses and high interest rates when times are good, budget deficits and lower interest rates when the economy is weak. The Rouhani team has done the opposite. As the IMF noted, "Iran's fiscal policy has been procyclical, which usually leads to lower growth." Since 2012, infrastructure investment declined by 3 percentage points of GDP, and human capital investment (education and health) by 2.5. Monetary policy was even more procyclical: expansionary in good times, contractionary in bad times. In short, the Rouhani team has done only modestly better at fiscal and monetary policy than its much-criticized predecessors.
LITTLE PROGRESS PLANNING FOR THE MEDIUM TERM
Having made much of reviving the long-respected Plan and Budget Organization abolished under Ahmadinejad, Rouhani has not been able to gain support for a new five-year development plan, the sixth since the 1979 revolution. In July, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a thirty-one-point general instruction about what should be in the Sixth Plan. Later, the Expediency Council -- a body headed by former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and charged with resolving disputes -- became dissatisfied with the government's progress in preparing the plan and stepped in. Upset at this action, Rouhani stopped attending the council's meetings in mid-September, a fact that council leaders made obvious by releasing a photo of the November 28 meeting with his chair empty. Some reports suggest the Sixth Plan was submitted this week along with the budget, as the Majlis had demanded and Rouhani had resisted, but few details are available.
Perhaps the biggest challenge that the Sixth Plan needs to tackle is how to create jobs for a reported 600,000 new market entrants each year. Although the IMF forecasts that GDP growth will increase to 4% per year, it also predicts that unemployment will rise for the next two years, then return to the current rate of 11.9% five years from now. And that is on the optimistic assumption that policies change to favor job-creating sectors rather than the heavy industry favored until now. The IMF forecast is a "scenario with high growth following sanctions relief"; yet Iran's unchanged "employment elasticities" -- the technical term for the relationship between GDP growth and job creation -- "would still see unemployment rising to 14%."
These unemployment figures are artificially depressed by the poor prospects for Iran's increasingly educated young women, many of whom never enter the labor force. According to the World Bank, women's labor force participation in the Islamic Republic is 18% -- lower than Turkey (32%), Egypt (26%), and even Saudi Arabia (22%). If Iranian women participated in the labor force at the same rate seen in Turkey, unemployment would currently be 18%.
BETTING ON MODERATES WHO ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COMPETENT?
Throughout his election campaign, Rouhani offered a simple analysis: the economy's main problem was sanctions, and a nuclear deal was the best way to relieve them. That formula is not looking so good today. Not only will the benefits of sanctions relief arrive slowly, but the drop in oil prices has highlighted Iran's overreliance on that resource. Khamenei's "resistance economy" formula for stimulating the non-oil sector is looking better and better as a way to create badly needed jobs. Meanwhile, Rouhani's secondary election theme -- restoring competent management in place of the Ahmadinejad team's corruption and ineptitude -- looks less and less impressive. Perhaps Rouhani will achieve the optimistic targets he set out in a December 23 speech: 5% growth, 9.9% inflation, 75% of government revenue from non-oil sources, and a 90% (nominal) increase in development spending. But many Iranian economists are skeptical.
In an October IMF press release, Martin Cerisola, the head of the team that prepared this month's Iran report, was quoted as follows: "Risks to the outlook are significant, and longer-term prospects will depend crucially on the depth of reforms that are undertaken...Ultimately, if mild reforms are implemented, the sanctions relief will have only a moderate positive impact on the economy." That statement ably sums up the relative weight of sanctions relief and domestic policy as influences on Iran's economy. The oft-heard mantra about Iran policy -- that the West needs to help moderates like Rouhani -- looks pretty thin if those moderates do little to help themselves. Their problems in the economic sphere are overwhelmingly their own doing, not a result of any actions the West does or does not take.
**Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at The Washington Institute.

The IDF's warning to Nasrallah
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/December 25/15
Analysis: Israeli security officials are claiming that the Hezbollah leader would be making a grave mistake if he thinks the IDF will sit quietly if his organization responds to Samir Kuntar's assassination with terror attacks.
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The IDF is taking Hassan Nasrallah's threats of revenge after the assassination of terrorist Samir Kuntar in Syria seriously. The IDF General Staff is conducting threat assessments about the way in which Nasrallah plans on realizing his threat, which bring about the fear that the Hezbollah Secretary General may mistake Israel's likely response to a revenge attack, whether it be in the north (near the Syrian or Lebanese border), abroad, or even inside Israel.
Senior IDF members remind us of Nasrallah's words in the summer of 2006, after the Second Lebanon War, in which he admitted to underestimating the Israeli government's response to the ambush in which Eldad Regev and Udi Goldwasser were kidnapped.
Israel, of course, started an operation following the kidnapping, which developed into a war in which Hezbollah and Lebanon suffered hundreds of deaths and heavy damage to population centers. Israel also suffered losses and thousands of rockets that fell inside its borders, but the damage was far lesser than that on the other side. After suffering the destructive results of that war, Hezbollah has avoided nearly all large-scale conflicts with Israeli forces for the past nine years.
Nasrallah is also underestimating Israel's intentions to respond harshly if any harm comes to its civilians, soldiers, or sovereignty. A senior IDF official has stated unequivocally that Nasrallah and Hezbollah would be making a big mistake if they perpetrated a lethal terror attack in an attempt to avenge Kuntar's assassination, which they attribute to Israel.
IDF leaders are also expressing surprise at the fact that Nasrallah maneuvered himself, in a speech he gave recently, towards a public commitment to avenge the assassination of Kuntar and two other members of the terrorist network he established. One of the two was Farhan Shaalan, a Druze man from the village of Ein Qiniyye in the northern Golan Heights who was Kuntar's spokesman.
Nasrallah, and this is well-known here too, didn't really take Kuntar and his operational capabilities very seriously. But he saw in Kuntar a symbol, perhaps because of his 29 years in prison in Israel (incarcerated terrorists are given a special status of respect and influence in Palestinian society and Arab nations).
Additionally, Nasrallah hasn't forgotten that in fact, in order to free Kuntar, he sent his men to kidnap Goldwasser and Regev. When Kuntar was released, he gave him a reception at a Beirut stadium and intertwined his reputation with Kuntar's.
However, Israeli security officials say that the situation is very different today, and that Nasrallah would be making a big mistake if he were to think Israel would not respond to a revenge attack: Firstly, because Israel is more prepared today – from an intelligence, operations, defensive, and most of all offensive point of view – for a conflict and/or war in Lebanon.
The IDF also emphasizing the fact that the Chief of General Staff (CoGS) and his deputy are both former GOCs of the Northern Command from recent years, and that they are the ones who prepared the IDF for exactly the clash into which Nastallah might drag it. On this matter it's important to note that the current head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate (AKA Aman. -ed), Major-General Herzl Halevi, was commander of the Galilee Division (AKA The 91st Division. -ed), which planned the next offensive on the Lebanese border.
The quick appointment
An interesting fact that is likely connected to the IDF's preparedness to quickly respond to any Hezbollah attack is the appointment of Colonel Aviad from the Air Force as commander of a special firing force for the Northern Command. Aviad is a fighter pilot who up until recently has headed the Air Force unit that participates in ground battles, and is replacing Artillery Corps man Ilan Levi in the position, after the latter was terminated by the CoGS over a security breach (he left classified documents in his vehicle, which was subsequently stolen with them inside. -ed).
The very fact of the quick appointment, which happened less than 48 hours after Levi's firing, of an Air Force man to a position which had always been held by land Army men, points at the need CoGS Eizenkot sees in the Northern Command being ready to quickly respond to any development. The command structure of the firing force, which was formerly focused on artillery fire with the Air Force and Navy backing it up, has also switched. The Air Force has thousands of targets all over Lebanon today, which it can strike as the result of changes that were recently implemented with its operational proceedings.
True, Hezbollah and its fighters have gained important combat experience in Syria, as well as a huge stockpile of rockets and missiles, but they've also left 1,300 of their dead on Syrian ground, and suffered thousands of wounded. This fact raises ire even among Nasrallah's Shia faction.
Western sources claim that pressure is being raised toward Nasrallah among the Lebanese factions these days to not commit a revenge attack over the Kuntar assassination, in a way that will cause Israel to powerfully retaliate against Lebanon. The main force pressuring Nasrallah is the March 14 movement, headed by Saad Hariri, son of Rafiq Hariri, the Sunni-Muslim Lebanese Prime Minister who was assassinated by Hezbollah.
The Shia faction also has voices who are calling for Nasrallah not to do irresponsible things. But what's truly surprising is the fact that the Iranians are also sending Nasrallah messages these days that say a conflict with Israel right now could cause huge damage to the efforts of preserving Bashar Assad's government in Syria, and Hezbollah and Iran's influence in Lebanon.
A Mughniyeh reminder
These facts tell us that there are forces pushing Nasrallah to act now, and across from them are levers pressuring him in order to stop a complication with Israel. According to foreign publications, at the start of this year (in January 2015) Israel struck a group of Hezbollah commanders in Syria and Iran who were planning a series of terror attacks in the Israeli Golan Heights area. Seven of those commanders were killed in the strike, among them Jihad Mughnuyeh (son of Hezbollah leader Imad Mughniyeh) and an Iranian general.
In retaliation, Hezbollah fired anti-tank missiles at a convoy of Givati Brigade fighters who were coming down from Har Dov – which Hezbollah calls the Shebaa farms. An officer and a fighter were killed in the attack, but Israel did not respond. That doesn't mean that the balance over that attack is squared in Israel's eyes, say security officials.
The IDF also mentions that Nasrallah sees the slopes of Hart Dov as a kind of "playground" where it can legitimately fire at Israel, since it considers the place to be occupied Lebanese ground. The facts are different, but it's not important. What's important is that it's likely that Hezbollah will try to penetrate the 'Shebaa farms' again to perpetrate another revenge attack. That's what the IDF is trying to prevent, to the benefit of all sides. Memorably, CoGS Gadi Eizenkot promised, when he was GOC Northern Command, a disproportionate response to any Hezbollah provocation.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4744186,00.html

Grim Life for Christians in Muslim Pakistan
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/December 25/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/12/25/raymond-ibrahim-grim-life-for-christians-in-muslim-pakistan/
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7086/pakistan-christian-life
"Often in these cases the police take no action or, worse, side with the rapists. Christian families or witnesses are pressured to withdraw complaints." — Sardar Mushtaq Gill, Pakistani lawyer and human rights activist.
Asia Bibi, a Christian mother of five, has been on death row since 2010 because a Muslim woman, apparently with a personal vendetta against Bibi, accused her of speaking blasphemy against the prophet of Islam, Muhammad. "She could be killed by any inmate or even a prison guard," said an official. "She was vomiting blood last month and was having difficulty walking."
Saddique Azam, a Catholic teacher and headmaster at a primary school in a small village, was beaten and tortured by a group of Muslim teachers who resented being under the authority of an "infidel."
Nabila Bibi, a Christian woman who was engaged to a Christian man, was abducted, forcibly converted to Islam, and forcibly married to a Muslim man.
The U.S. State Department lists only nine nations as "Countries of Particular Concern" (CPC) -- a designation for those nations considered to be the worst violators of religious freedom. These include governments that "engage in or tolerate" systematic, ongoing, and unspeakable violations of religious freedom.
According to many human rights activists, this list is far from complete: "the State Department has seemed unwilling to recognize the grave unspeakable abuses of religious freedom in a number of Muslim-dominated countries that the USCIRF [U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom] considers CPCs: Egypt, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria and Tajikistan."
Accordingly, on October 21, the USCIRF issued a press release calling on "the State Department to further expand its CPC list to reflect the severe violations occurring in other countries, such as Pakistan, which USCIRF has called the worst situation in the world for religious freedom for countries not currently designated by the U.S. government as CPCs."
To understand why Pakistan was highlighted, consider the following 10 accounts, all of which took place in the month of October -- the same month that the U.S. State Department was being urged to include Pakistan and other countries in its list.
On October 23, a deaf, married Christian woman was gang-raped by three Muslim men who broke into her home while her husband was out working. Despite her screams, no one came to help her. Although one man was arrested, rights activists say he will eventually be released. According to Sardar Mushtaq Gill, a Pakistani lawyer and human rights activist, "Often in these cases the police take no action or, worse, side with the rapists. Christian families or witnesses are pressured to withdraw complaints."
On October 15, eight days before the deaf Christian woman was raped, two Muslim men, both named Muhammad, who had earlier raped two teenage Christian sisters at gunpoint, were acquitted in court. Not only did a key witness change his statement after receiving a bribe, but according to the girls' father, "The lawyer didn't fight the case very well and with commitment. Mostly, he stayed absent from the hearings of the case during the proceedings. The lawyer didn't even participate in the cross-questioning with the culprits in the court. ... We face serious life threats from the culprits now, as they are being released from jail."
A report from October 5 cites three separate incidents in which five young Christian girls were abducted and sexually abused: Two were kidnapped and gang-raped by a group of Muslim men; a 13-year-old Christian girl was kidnapped and raped; and two other Christian girls were abducted and abused by a group of human traffickers who forced them into prostitution.
Nabila Bibi, a Christian woman who had been engaged to a Christian man for a year and was preparing to marry him in a few weeks' time, was abducted, forcibly converted to Islam, and then forcibly married to a Muslim man named Allah Rakha. After discovering her whereabouts, her fiancé went to the kidnapper's home on October 15 and demanded to see her. Rakha, who had 15-20 other Muslims with him, refused, and warned the Christian that because his fiancée was now Muslim, he must never seek her out again, or else suffer "dire consequences." The report adds that such Christian abductees "may be subjected to sexual violence, rape, forced prostitution, human trafficking and sale, or other domestic abuse or discarded from home after passing some time."
On October 23, Sonia Bibi, a 20-year-old Christian woman, was set on fire and almost burned to death after she refused to marry a Muslim ex-boyfriend. According to the woman's testimony, when she turned down his proposal, Latif Ahmed doused her with petrol and set her alight. Burns covered nearly half of her body.
On October 5, Saddique Azam, a Catholic teacher who was appointed headmaster at a primary school in a small village, was beaten and tortured by a group of three Muslim teachers who resented being under the authority of an "infidel." The Muslims barged into Azam's office and ordered him to resign. When he refused, they beat him so severely that he needed to be hospitalized.
According to an October 14 report, rights activists ae concerned for the life of Asia Bibi, a Christian mother of five who has been on death row since 2010. A Muslim woman, apparently with a personal vendetta against Bibi, had accused her of speaking blasphemy against the prophet of Islam, Muhammad. "She could be killed by any inmate or even a prison guard, so we have to be careful," said an official. Bibi was put in solitary confinement, where her health has been steadily deteriorating. "She was vomiting blood last month and having difficulty walking."
Asia Bibi and two of her five children, pictured prior to her imprisonment on death row in 2010 for "blasphemy."
An October 19 report tells of a Christian family -- a father, mother, and two daughters -- who have been on the run since 2006. Their "crime" was that the woman, formerly a Muslim, converted to Christianity and married a Christian man. This prompted threats and attacks from Muslims, including her family: "Jobless and desperate, they are unable to meet their own needs, as they continue to be threatened, hounded, and attacked because they want to live a Christian life and raise their children in accordance with Christ's teachings," notes the report. Due to the stressful experiences and unsanitary conditions they are forced to hide in, the woman has miscarried their third child. The father was shot in the leg and run over by a motorcycle. Even so, "Attempts to file a case against their tormentors have fallen on deaf police ears."
An October 23 report titled, "Christians required only as sweepers," notes that "Christians make up most of the non-Muslim minority in central Punjab and account for 1.5 per cent of the total population. Their representation in sanitation work, however, is above 80 percent." After noting that Pakistan was named "Land of the Pure" in reference to its Muslim identity (as opposed to that of its largely Hindu neighbor, India), the report adds, "The attitude of forcing Christians into degrading occupations based on their descent continues and owes its existence to this long-entrenched dichotomy of 'pure' and 'impure.'"
On October 7, more than 1,000 Christians gathered in front of the Punjab Assembly to protest an "anti-minority" bill that "denies voting rights to women" and "does not allow religious minorities to elect their own representatives." Religious minorities argued that an appointed official "cannot do anything" except to "become a puppet in the hand of their party."
These ten accounts from October alone are a typical sampling of what Christians, who reportedly make up roughly 1% of Pakistan's population, routinely experience. (Over 96% of Pakistan's population is Muslim).
Worse, the majority of atrocities, according to human rights activists, never get reported for fear of reprisals. It took five years for the account of a two-year-old toddler, who was savagely raped because her Christian father refused to convert to Islam, to become public. She has undergone five surgeries and still remains disfigured. Her family lives in constant fear and in hiding.
According to human rights activist Sardar Mushtaq Gill, who is involved with many of the above-mentioned cases, "Violence against women and children of religious minorities, the weak and vulnerable, is widespread in Pakistan and is often carried out in silence. These cases and the stories do not come to light and when victims talk about it they are intimidated."
In light of all this, it is high time for Pakistan to be labeled a "Country of Particular Concern" by the U.S. Department of State. Otherwise, the crucial question persists: Why is it not?
Raymond Ibrahim is author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War in Christians (published by Regnery in cooperation with Gatestone Institute, April 2013).
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© 2015 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Christians in Nigeria: Having Nothing but Everything
Alan Craig/Gatestone Institute/December 25/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/12/25/alan-craig-christians-in-nigeria-having-nothing-but-everything/
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7112/nigeria-christians
Justice is in short supply in northern Nigeria.
In 2013, there were over 200 Christian churches in the thriving Gwoza area. By the middle of 2014, there were almost none left.
The orphans have nothing, but surrounded by the warm and disciplined Christian love of the Kwashis, they have everything.
In Jos, in the middle-belt of Nigeria. despite the proliferating Christmas decorations in homes and churches, peace on earth and goodwill between communities continues to be in short supply. Across northern Nigeria, the church is facing an existential threat from the violence and intimidation of Islam in its various forms.
In the school of Gloria Kwashi, wife of the Anglican Archbishop, Ben Kwashi, which serves 400 orphans, the lunchtime bowl of mixed rice and beans with added nutrients is, for many of these children, the only meal of the day. The education of these orphans is taken seriously by Gloria Kwashi and her dedicated staff of seven, not only as a Christian imperative but also as a vital route out of poverty.
Left: Nigerian Anglican Archbishop Ben Kwashi and his wife, Gloria Kwashi. Right: Gloria Kwashi's school serves 400 orphans in Jos.
At night, Archbishop Ben, a fatherly but diminutive spiritual colossus, leads the prayers in front of the youngsters. He holds the rudimentary archbishop's staff they had made for him from branches of a nearby tree in one hand, while blessing them with the other.
"Good night Daddy Kwashi, goodnight Mummy Kwashi," the children say in unison. The orphans have nothing, but surrounded by the warm and disciplined Christian love of the Kwashis, they have everything.
There is still inter-communal violence. It is generated by Fulani Muslim herdsmen who migrate from the sharia law states in the north onto land belonging to ethnic Berom Christian villagers on the Jos Plateau. Ostensibly the Fulani herdsmen are searching for grazing pasture for their cattle, but their motive seems also to include expansionism.
The farmland belonging to the Berom village of Sho, a short drive from the city of Jos, has been forcibly occupied by Fulani herdsmen. In the past two years, twenty-four villagers from Sho have been massacred, ten of them on July 7 of this year. As a consequence, the villagers live in terror, unable to enter or exit their village or cross their own adjoining farmland except under armed military escort. Their school and church have been destroyed.
The leader of the community and villagers in the village square explained they are isolated, grieving and desperate: living in poverty and without access to their farmland for food.
It was not clear why the authorities have not attempted to rectify the situation. Justice is in short supply in northern Nigeria.
An internally displaced persons (IDP) camp is run in dilapidated school buildings in Bukuru, south of Jos, by the under-funded but resourceful Stefanos Foundation and its energetic CEO, Mark Lipdo. The camp comprises primarily Christians from the Gwoza area, close to the Cameroon border.
For much of the last century, Gwoza was peopled by primitive and frequently warring tribes. Then, after the Second World War, the colonial authorities allowed British and other missionaries into the area. These were doctors, nurses and teachers as well as evangelists; they built health clinics, schools and in due course, churches. The first indigenous convert, Inshaya Hutuku, who still lives there, became a Christian in the early 1950s. Then the early trickle of converts grew into a steady stream.
By 2013, there were over 200 churches in the thriving Gwoza area. By the middle of 2014, a year later, there were almost none left.
Boko Haram ["Western Education is Forbidden"] is the group that last year killed more people than ISIS. This year, the group pledged allegiance to their brutal Iraqi and Syrian counterparts. In April 2014, these terrorists moved into the area and began killing, kidnapping, burning and destroying churches and homes. On June 2, 2014, Boko Haram jihadists perpetrated the infamous Gwoza massacre: up to 500 males were slaughtered. Then, on August 24, Boko Haram declared the town of Gwoza their headquarters. One man, an elderly Christian minister, narrowly escaped death by scrambling up into the hills. His home was burnt out.
Many escaped the slaughter in Gwoza with only the clothes they wore. Over 450 of them are now living in the IDP camp. They survive on church generosity and handouts organized by Stefanos. The conditions are pitiful and the drafty rooms are cold during the December nights. Most of the refugees are eager to return home to Gwoza as soon as possible, even though they have limited cause for optimism.
While Nigeria's military, under the new Federal President Muhammadu Buhari, together with increasingly effective civilian self-defense groups, are gaining some ground against Boko Haram, there is little prospect that families can return to or rebuild their lives back in Gwoza itself in the near future.
Ben and Gloria Kwashi and Mark Lipdo -- like many other Christians in northern Nigeria -- are faithful, courageous, visionary and inspirational. They spread hope, joy and generosity in the darkest of places, and it is certainly appropriate to highlight and celebrate their endeavors at Christmas time.
But the tide is flowing strongly against them. Through violence, persecution and discrimination, over the centuries and especially over the past decade, Islam has chased Christianity out of the heartlands of the Middle East as well as across North Africa. The same may be happening in northern Nigeria.
So despite the joy of Christmas, rising militant Islam means it is a bleak winter for many there, and indeed around the world.
If you are moved to help them, you can donate via Humanitarian Aid Relief Trust (HART). Your money will be well spent.
*Alan Craig served for eight years as a Councilman in east London, England.
© 2015 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Which U.S. presidential candidate is Iran’s favorite?
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/December 25/15
Although Tehran would prefer a totally different political establishment in the United States, it prefers one American presidential candidate to the others: Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders. It bases its preference on candidates’ view of the nuclear deal, and their policies toward the Middle East, particularly Syria, Israel, Iraq and the Gulf.
Tehran would rather see a Democrat than a Republican as the next U.S. president. At one time there were minimal differences between the parties’ views on Iran, but in the last few years the gap has widened.
Democrats are more likely to honor the nuclear deal, which Iran needs to push the U.N. Security Council to lift crippling economic sanctions. This will enhance its legitimacy globally, which will facilitate its trade and military activities in other nations.
Since the odds appear to favor a Democratic victory in the 2016 election, bilateral ties are more likely to improve or at least not worsen.
Republicans view Iran’s increasing influence in the Middle East as a national security threat. They tend to criticize Tehran more harshly than Democrats for its increasing military activities in Iraq and Syria. Democratic candidates prefer to reduce American boots on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, and turn a blind eye to what will fill the resulting vacuum.
Democrats believe in further rapprochement with Tehran. With a Democratic president, Tehran will feel empowered to leverage its legitimacy and ratchet up its global position. Democrats view positively Iran’s fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This is a short-term vision, ignoring the long-term consequences of Tehran’s military involvements and support for Shiite proxies across the region.
The candidates’ views on Iran’s rival Israel is critical. While both parties publicly support Israel, Democrats have recently had strained ties with it due to their leanings toward the nuclear deal and further rapprochement with Tehran.
Engagement
Democrats tend to prefer isolationism to more engagement in the region. From Tehran’s perspective, a U.S. withdrawal creates a vacuum that can be filled by it or its Shiite proxies. Also, due to ISIS and the latest regional developments, Democrats lean more toward the idea of Iranian leadership in the region than Arab leadership. For Tehran, a Democratic president will tip the regional balance of power in its favor.
Sanders subscribes to these views, and is much more left-leaning than the other Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Martin O’Malley. Sanders is isolationist and in favor of negotiating with Tehran. In the last Democratic debate, he emphasized the role of Iran. He is the only candidate who has frequently and strongly stressed the idea of cooperating with Tehran to deal with regional issues.
Clinton prefers more U.S. regional engagement. For example, she favors a no-fly zone in Syria, which would threaten Tehran’s interests there. Sanders focuses on domestic issues, and seeks to emulate European countries’ domestic and foreign policies. It follows then that if he becomes president, there would be improved U.S.-Iranian ties since European nations enjoy better ties with Tehran than Washington.
Since the odds appear to favor a Democratic victory in the 2016 election, bilateral ties are more likely to improve or at least not worsen.

Libyan deal on course, but who is on board?
Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/December 25/15
Last week, representatives of the internationally-recognized Libyan government in Tobruk, and the General National Congress (GNC) - the Islamist-dominated rival authority in Tripoli - signed a U.N.-brokered agreement to form a unity government, which was quickly endorsed by the U.N. Security Council. It is the fruit of nearly a year of sporadic negotiations - a process whose flaws are reflected in the document.
The mediation focused on rival parties and movements, and ignored the tribes that remain central to whatever is still stable in day-to-day life, and are as much a factor as the political movements in the ongoing strife that has characterized Libya since the fall of Moammar Gaddafi.
Thus the Muslim Brotherhood and even more radical Islamist groups that dominate the GNC could only have seized Tripoli and established a rival government after losing elections because they had the support of Misrata tribal militias traditionally opposed to those in Zintan, which supported the legitimate government and subsequently undertook much of the fighting on its behalf, in particular in Tripoli.
Most political figures are grudgingly going along with the deal because of the obvious widespread yearning among Libyans for peace.
Mutual opposition
The speakers of the rival parliaments announced their opposition to the deal as soon as it was announced. Both men are considered hardliners within their respective camps. GNC President Nouri Abu Sahmain has links to the most extremist elements among the Islamist alliances concentrated in Tripoli.
Agila Saleh, head of the legitimate parliament - the House of Representatives (HOR) - has close ties with Libyan army commander in chief General Khalifa Haftar, who is ferociously opposed to all forms of Islamist politics. The two men, at opposite extremes of Libyan politics, actually met together to express their opposition to the deal.
Their refusal was dressed in a nationalist or even patriotic appeal against a unity government in all its details and choice of leadership imposed by an outside force. Instead, they offered the 1951 constitution, but with a ceremonial president instead of a constitutional monarchy. This counter-proposal is not going anywhere in Libya, but it did take the wind out of a growing demand to restore the 1951 constitution in its original form.
Life support
Why then has the unity deal not crashed? Because rival Misrata and Zintan militias had already agreed to a ceasefire, and because the strong Muslim Brotherhood faction within the GNC leadership secured from the U.N. mediator a State Council drawn entirely from the GNC to serve as an advisory body to the HOR.
The unity deal recognized the HOR as the sole legislative authority, but there is a clause buried in it suggesting that in certain types of legislation, the State Council shall express a binding opinion to the unity government, which is otherwise dominated by the HOR.
The deal has not crashed also because of the growing strength in Libya of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The HOR has been asking for the past year that the U.N. Security Council lift the U.N. arms embargo so it can secure heavy weaponry to seriously move against ISIS.
The United States and UK refused, saying they will only do so when there is a unity government. As such, ISIS has been relatively unchallenged as it expands in Libya. So in recent months, London and Washington have been increasing pressure on both sides to sign a unity deal, threatening political isolation for whoever obstructs it, and promising financial and military aid to any unity government that emerges from the U.N.-brokered talks.
Perhaps most important of all, most political figures - particularly those identified with the HOR - are grudgingly going along with the deal because of the obvious widespread yearning among Libyans for peace.

Assad’s presence obstructing a solution in Syria
Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/December 25/15
Those in power often reach a state where they think they are more important than authority itself, and thus link the fate of the country and its people to their own. This is what Arab leaders who have been toppled did.
The tragedy is repeated today in Syria as President Bashar al-Assad refuses to step down. Instead of asking an ally to guarantee him and his family safe passage from Syria to pave the way for a settlement that achieves democracy and guarantees pluralism and diversity, he is holding on to power, which he protects by using barrel bombs.
Perhaps Assad realizes that going back to governing the country the way he and his late father Hafez did for the past 40 years is now impossible. He is probably aware that his son will only inherit a bloody history that will prevent him from looking any honorable Syrian in the eye. This history is stained with the blood of innocent people, and characterized by tears and screams.
The Syrian people’s fate will remain trapped between the terrorist regime’s hammer, and the anvil of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Like other rulers, Assad refuses to step down and continues to shed the blood of his citizens, who have lived under his rule and that of his father without daring to speak out against injustice and unilateralism. The regime’s injustice has also affected Lebanon, as many Lebanese have been kidnapped, tortured or killed because they rejected Syrian occupation and tutelage.
Peace plan
The U.N. Security Council agreed last week to embrace a plan for a ceasefire in Syria, and to launch peace talks in early January. However, there are many obstacles preventing implementation. One is Assad’s fate, which is still a controversial matter among global powers.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Assad has lost credibility and the capability to unite Syria. His French counterpart Laurent Fabius agreed, and demanded guarantees for Assad’s departure. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia continue to reiterate their support for Assad under the excuse that his fate should be decided by the Syrian people - as if they respected the Syrian people’s will when they directly intervened to fight alongside his forces.
So how will a process toward a solution be launched at the start of 2016? Perhaps Assad’s future is a reason behind thwarting a solution or at least delaying it. Meanwhile, the Syrian people’s fate will remain trapped between the terrorist regime’s hammer, and the anvil of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006 Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006