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Bible Quotations For Today

‘You know me, and you know where I am from. I have not come on my own. But the one who sent me is true, and you do not know him
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 07/25-30: "Now some of the people of Jerusalem were saying, ‘Is not this the man whom they are trying to kill? And here he is, speaking openly, but they say nothing to him! Can it be that the authorities really know that this is the Messiah? Yet we know where this man is from; but when the Messiah comes, no one will know where he is from.’Then Jesus cried out as he was teaching in the temple, ‘You know me, and you know where I am from. I have not come on my own. But the one who sent me is true, and you do not know him. I know him, because I am from him, and he sent me.’Then they tried to arrest him, but no one laid hands on him, because his hour had not yet come.

If the part of the dough offered as first fruits is holy, then the whole batch is holy; and if the root is holy, then the branches also are holy
Letter to the Romans 11/13-24: "Now I am speaking to you Gentiles. Inasmuch then as I am an apostle to the Gentiles, I glorify my ministry. in order to make my own people jealous, and thus save some of them. For if their rejection is the reconciliation of the world, what will their acceptance be but life from the dead! If the part of the dough offered as first fruits is holy, then the whole batch is holy; and if the root is holy, then the branches also are holy. But if some of the branches were broken off, and you, a wild olive shoot, were grafted in their place to share the rich root of the olive tree, do not vaunt yourselves over the branches. If you do vaunt yourselves, remember that it is not you that support the root, but the root that supports you. You will say, ‘Branches were broken off so that I might be grafted in.’That is true. They were broken off because of their unbelief, but you stand only through faith. So do not become proud, but stand in awe. For if God did not spare the natural branches, perhaps he will not spare you. Note then the kindness and the severity of God: severity towards those who have fallen, but God’s kindness towards you, provided you continue in his kindness; otherwise you also will be cut off. And even those of Israel, if they do not persist in unbelief, will be grafted in, for God has the power to graft them in again. For if you have been cut from what is by nature a wild olive tree and grafted, contrary to nature, into a cultivated olive tree, how much more will these natural branches be grafted back into their own olive tree."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 15-16/15
Gaddafi son could face jail in Lebanon/Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/December 16/15
The Franjieh Presidency: A Step Backward for Lebanon/Lebanese Information Center (LIC)/December 14, 2015
What About Iran's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/December 15/15
How Iran will choose its next supreme leader/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
Khamenei's strategy puts US 'Trojan horse' out to pasture/Ali Hashem/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
Will Syria become Russia's Vietnam/Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
How solar energy is sparking new business in Egypt/Eman El-Sherbiny/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
Why the US is part of Middle East problem, not the solution/Shlomi Eldar/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
The Saudi anti-terror coalition could be a game changer/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Al Arabiya/December 15/15
ISIS is also a Saudi problem/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/December 15/15
The Riyadh conference and an ambiguous Kerry/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/December 15/15
The significance of the Riyadh talks on Syria/Sharif Nashashibi/Al Arabiya/December 15/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 15-16/15
Report: Israel Estimates Massive Hezbollah Losses in Syria
Al-Rahi Slams 'Shameful' Presidential Vote Obstruction, Says Breakthrough Possible
Hizbullah Kills 'IS Religious Judge' in Ras Baalbek Outskirts as Army Targets Top Militant
Report: Franjieh Returns 'Very Satisfied' from Weekend Visit to Assad
Salam: Government with a Non-Functioning Cabinet is Useless
Mustaqbal: Continued Obstruction of Presidential Vote a Crime against Lebanon
LF Denies Presence of 'Saudi Pressures', Stresses Importance of 'Presidential Platforms'
2 Hurt as Disgruntled Man Hurls Grenade at Tripoli Wedding
Lebanon Joins Saudi-led Anti-Terror Coalition: Salam Hails Move, Foreign Ministry 'Unaware' of Step
Fate of Hannibal Gadhafi Pending Interpol Response on his Arrest
Report: Geagea Still Does Not Rule out Possibility of Nominating Aoun for President
Report: Diplomats See Flaws in how Hariri's Initiative was Proposed
Last Mustaqbal-Hizbullah Dialogue Session of 2015 Set for Thursday
Minister Sejaan Azzi.: Lebanon not part of Saudi-led counterterror coalition
Gaddafi son could face jail in Lebanon
The Franjieh Presidency: A Step Backward for Lebanon

Report: Israel Estimates Massive Hezbollah Losses in Syria
December 15, 2015/Algemeiner Staff/Hezbollah control in Lebanon. Sleeper cells are now in the West Bank and recruiting Palestinians there to their ranks. Photo: Wikimedia Commons. The Hezbollah flag. Israel estimates that the terror group has lost one third of its fighters in Syria. Photo: Wikimedia Commons. Israeli officials estimate that one third of Hezbollah’s active fighters have been killed or wounded in the Syrian civil war, Israeli news site Walla reported on Tuesday. According to the report, based on anonymous sources, between 1,300 and 1,500 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in combat in Syria, and an additional 5,000 have been wounded and are out of commission. Although Hezbollah — designated by the US and Israel as a terrorist group — is not open about its armed strength, some estimates say it could have up to 18,000 full-time and volunteers troops. Hezbollah, long seen by Israelis as part of the Middle East axis also including Syria and Iran, has been fighting on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Assad and his backers in Tehran almost since the beginning of the armed conflict at the end of 2011. The group has sent fighters to battle in the Syrian Golan region, near Israel, and has been heavily engaged in fighting around Al-Zabadani, a hill station near the Lebanese border. Hezbollah-dominated civilian areas in Lebanon have been targeted by terrorists multiple times since the group started battling anti-government groups in Syria, including ISIS. Israel has also carried out air strikes against Hezbollah targets, including weapons convoys from Syria, which it says is one of the red lines that, if crossed, would precipitate involvement in Syria. Although as early as 2012, Hezbollah leaders were denying their role in fighting on behalf of Assad, Walla reported that Hezbollah has recently been very open about its casualties. Arabic media recently reported that 14 Hezbollah fighters had died in combat against members of ISIS in the Beqaa Valley region of southern Lebanon, according to Walla. On Tuesday, Hezbollah-affiliated media reported that its fighters had killed an ISIS commander after detonating his convoy on the Syrian-Lebanese border, near the Qalamoun mountains. Hezbollah has also boasted killing members of the Nusra Front, a group of anti-government Syrian fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda. Assad, whose brutal crackdown on anti-government forces has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties and a massive refugee crisis, insists he is battling terrorists.

Al-Rahi Slams 'Shameful' Presidential Vote Obstruction, Says Breakthrough Possible
Naharnet/December 15/15/ Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Tuesday described the ongoing presidential vacuum as “shameful,” while noting that the country is not facing a “dead end” in this regard. “We have become ashamed of the obstruction of the presidential election and we cannot tolerate this situation anymore,” al-Rahi said. “We however say that there is no dead end and God can always open the doors for us … I believe that God can do miracles,” he added. A Paris meeting last month between al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh had raised hopes of an imminent political settlement that would end the presidential void that has been running since May 2014. But the initiative appears to be suffering in recent days after it drew objections and reservations from the country's main Christian parties – the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. Hizbullah is also reportedly insisting on the nomination of its ally Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun.

Hizbullah Kills 'IS Religious Judge' in Ras Baalbek Outskirts as Army Targets Top Militant
Naharnet/December 15/15/A senior official of the jihadist Islamic State group was killed Tuesday in a Hizbullah operation on the Lebanese-Syrian border, the party's TV channel reported. “IS religious judge in Qalamoun, Abu Abdullah Amer, has been killed in a special operation by the mujahideen of the resistance in Ras Baalbek's outskirts,” al-Manar television said. Al-Manar said a roadside bomb was detonated as Amer's convoy was passing in Ras Baalbek's outskirts to inspect some IS military posts. Hizbullah fighters then blew up a second bomb in another location against IS militants who moved to recover Amer's body. A top official was critically wounded as several militants were injured, al-Manar said. Later on Tuesday, the army announced targeting an IS vehicle traveling in the Khirbet Daoud area of Ras Baalbek's outskirts with a “guided missile.”“The vehicle was destroyed as four militants, including a field commander, were killed,” the army added. State-run National News Agency identified the senior IS official as Abu Jassem Flita. On Thursday, several IS militants were killed as Hizbullah shelled their movements as they tried to infiltrate the outskirts of the Bekaa border town of al-Qaa.
A day earlier, Hizbullah killed a senior commander of the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front and eight of his men in an attack on their convoy in the outskirts of the Lebanese border town fo Arsal. Militants from the IS and al-Nusra are entrenched in mountainous regions along the porous Lebanese-Syrian border.
The Lebanese army regularly shells their positions and Hizbullah fighters have engaged in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border. The fighters of the two extremist groups had stormed Arsal in August 2014 and engaged in bloody battles with Lebanese troops and policemen. They eventually withdrew after a ceasefire but took with them over 30 hostages from the army and the police, of whom four have been executed. Sixteen Lebanese servicemen were freed in a swap deal with al-Nusra earlier this month.

Report: Franjieh Returns 'Very Satisfied' from Weekend Visit to Assad
Naharnet/December 15/15/Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh paid a visit over the weekend to his ally and personal friend Syrian President Bashar Assad, reported As Safir newspaper on Tuesday. It said that the meeting was held on Sunday and that the MP “had returned to Lebanon very satisfied with the talks.” The discussions lasted a few hours and the lawmaker returned to Lebanon that same day, revealed al-Joumhouria newspaper. As Safir added that the meeting was aimed at “reassessing the regional political scene, especially the Syrian-Lebanese one.”It continued that Franjieh and Assad “constantly” communicate with each other over the telephone, discussing the presidential initiative in Lebanon and the concerns surrounding it. “Franjieh sensed after returning to Lebanon the trust of the Syrian leadership in him and his political choices, seeing as he was among the few Lebanese politicians who stood by Syria and the resistance during the most difficult times,” reported the daily. Recent efforts to end the vacuum saw Franjieh emerge as a presidential candidate as part of a greater settlement that would revitalize the political scene in the country. The initiative, launched by Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri, has however been met with the reservations of the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb Party, and the Free Patriotic Movement. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.

Salam: Government with a Non-Functioning Cabinet is Useless
Naharnet/December 15/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam stated on Tuesday that Lebanese politicians must realize that a cabinet that does not convene is useless and urged recognition to the accomplishments made in the food safety file. “We, as a government, will continue to shoulder responsibility no matter what the difficulties we face are. There is no need for a government without a functioning cabinet,” said Salam during the quality rating of Lebanese restaurants announcement. “Today the nation needs to carry on with efforts to elect a president,” he stressed. “There seems to be some faults delays in the completion of the presidential elections, but I hope the efforts do not stop and that something is finalized to restore confidence to the nation.” Lebanon has been living a 19-month presidential vacuum since the term of president Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014. Conflict among the rival March 8 and March 14 camps have thwarted all attempts aiming at electing a successor. Furthermore, Salam hailed the efforts of Health Minister Wael Abou Faour and the accomplishments he made in the food safety campaign that was kicked off over a year ago. “The food safety campaign has succeeded and so did Lebanon. This success requires perseverance in order for us to move ahead to other ones,” added the PM. Addressing the civil society activists who kicked off street demonstrations following the eruption of the trash crisis in July, Salam said: “Do not back down from the entitlements and from following up on the state (performance), but at the same time do not give a bad image but do hail the actions.” “We will be facing a new serious attempt to close a major file that is pressuring us all, and will accept the option to export trash abroad.”

Mustaqbal: Continued Obstruction of Presidential Vote a Crime against Lebanon
Naharnet/December 15/15/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc warned Tuesday that the “continued obstruction” of the presidential elections represents “a crime against Lebanon and the Lebanese,” after an initiative by Mustaqbal leader ex-PM Saad Hariri to nominate MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency was met by a storm of objections and reservations. “The bloc praises the contacts that ex-PM Saad Hariri is conducting with the various political parties in a bid to end the presidential void and reactivate state institutions,” it said in a statement issued after its weekly meeting. Warning of the presidential void's negative repercussions on “Lebanon's economy, international reputation, stability and security,” Mustaqbal stressed that “the main focus of Lebanese political forces and figures must be the mission of electing a new president without any delay or hesitation.”“The continued obstruction of this mission has become a crime against Lebanon and the Lebanese,” it stated. A Paris meeting last month between Hariri and Franjieh had raised hopes of an imminent political settlement that would end the presidential void that has been running since May 2014. But the initiative appears to be suffering in recent days after it drew objections and reservations from the country's main Christian parties – the Lebanese Forces, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Kataeb Party. Hizbullah is also reportedly insisting on the nomination of its ally Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun.
The MPs of Hizbullah and Aoun have boycotted 32 out of 33 electoral sessions, stripping the meetings of the needed constitutional quorum.

LF Denies Presence of 'Saudi Pressures', Stresses Importance of 'Presidential Platforms'
Naharnet/December 15/15/The Lebanese Forces stressed Tuesday that Saudi Arabia is not trying to influence its viewpoint on the presidential elections, as it reiterated that its stance is “not targeted against individuals but rather against presidential platforms.”“Claims that the LF is being pressured into endorsing the proposed settlement are not true and the LF's history is well-known,” LF bloc MP Sethrida Geagea said during an interview with Radio Liban Libre. “Dr. Samir Geagea has taken a thought-out decision. He spent 11 years in prison because he rejected exile and pressures,” the lawmaker, who is Geagea's wife, added. She noted that Saudi Arabia “has played a major rapprochement role among the Lebanese and it has never resorted to the approach of pressures to influence any group in Lebanon.” Noting that Riyadh believes that the Lebanese “know more about their country,” Geagea pointed out that the LF has very good ties with the kingdom. Turning to the issue of Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh's presidential nomination, the MP underlined that the LF “has not put any veto on any candidate.” “We respect all nominees, including (ex-)minister Suleiman Franjieh, but we have our candidate – Dr. Geagea,” the lawmaker added, noting that the LF chief had announced “a clear presidential platform a year and a half ago.”She reiterated that Geagea is “willing to withdraw” his candidacy “for the sake of Lebanon.”“As a political party, we will support any candidate carrying the same presidential platform that was proposed by Dr. Geagea when he announced his nomination for the presidency,” the MP added. “I'm optimistic and the LF's stance is not directed against individuals but rather against presidential platforms. There will be alternatives because we know that the Lebanese are in dire need for ending the presidential vacuum,” Geagea went on to say. A Paris meeting last month between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri had raised hopes of an imminent political settlement that would end the presidential void that has been running since May 2014. But the initiative appears to be suffering in recent days after it drew objections and reservations from the country's main Christian parties – the LF, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Kataeb Party. Hizbullah is also reportedly insisting on the nomination of its ally Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun.

2 Hurt as Disgruntled Man Hurls Grenade at Tripoli Wedding
Naharnet/December 15/15/ Two people were injured Tuesday as an apparently lovesick man threw a grenade at a wedding party in the northern city of Tripoli. “After a woman's family rejected his wedding proposal several times and decided to wed her to another man, a young man hurled a grenade at a wedding party in the el-Mina district of the city of Tripoli, injuring two people,” LBCI television said. State-run National News Agency said the man hurled a stun grenade outside the Qasr al-Nujoum Cafe on el-Mina's seaside corniche, damaging three parked cars. Security forces arrived on the scene and launched an investigation in the wake of the incident, the agency added.

Lebanon Joins Saudi-led Anti-Terror Coalition: Salam Hails Move, Foreign Ministry 'Unaware' of Step
Naharnet/December 15/15/Saudi Arabia announced on Tuesday the formation of a coalition of Arab and Muslim countries aimed at fighting terrorism. Lebanon is among the 34 countries in the alliance. Prime Minister Tammam Salam welcomed the formation of the Islamic coalition, saying: “Lebanon is at the forefront of the confrontation with terrorism.” “Any executive step required by Lebanon from the coalition will be studied and dealt with according to Lebanese constitutional and legal norms,” he added. But the Foreign Ministry decried that it “had no knowledge whatsoever of the issue of forming an Islamic anti-terror coalition.” It said it has not received “any memo or phone call mentioning this coalition.”The ministry “was neither consulted at the foreign level, as required by norms, nor domestically, as required by the Constitution,” it added. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes that this move undermines Lebanon's distinguished stance on the definition of terrorism and the classification of terrorist organizations,” it said. “It also encroaches on the ministry's constitutional jurisdiction on foreign affairs,” the ministry added, noting that Lebanon's foreign policy “is part of the government's policy and the Ministerial Policy Statement – in coordination and consultation with the prime minister.”There should be “internal consensus on this foreign policy,” the ministry stressed. It also reiterated that it will always support “any real effort, action or coalition aimed at combating takfiri terrorism and all its organizations, as well as all its military and ideological forms.” Earlier, Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri praised the coalition, saying: “This is a historic move on the right path, which is aimed at dealing with a political, security, and ideological problem that has started to pose a risk on Islam's civilized and human existence.”“It was only natural for this announcement to be made from Riyadh, by its Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who delineated the strategic line of this alliance,” he remarked in a statement. “Saudi is announcing on behalf of the overwhelming majority of the Arabs and Muslims that the responsibility of combating terrorism, which is exploiting Islam to harm the religion, lies on them, their leaderships, and countries,” stressed the MP. “This responsibility falls first on Arabs, who are falling victim to the ugliest discrimination campaigns that serve no purpose but to harm their role and stature in the world,” added Hariri. On this note, he saluted the Saudi leadership “for launching the alliance and embracing it.” Commenting on the coalition, Labor Minister Sejaan Qazzi said: “Lebanon is not part of this alliance and it was not informed about joining it.”“Lebanon is not an Islamic or Christian state and joining the coalition needs cabinet's approval,” he added according to MTV. “We hope an international alliance against terrorism would be formed instead of a sectarian one,” he told the television station. Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday the formation of a military coalition of 34 countries including Gulf states, Egypt and Turkey to fight "terrorism" in the Islamic world.The Saudi-led alliance does not include Iran, or Syria and Iraq. It will be based in Riyadh "to coordinate and support military operations to fight terrorism", with participation from Middle Eastern, African and Asian states, the SPA state news agency said. The coalition will tackle "the Islamic world's problem with terrorism and will be a partner in the worldwide fight against this scourge" said Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Lebanon joins the alliance that includes Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Turkey, Chad, Togo, Tunisia, Djibouti, Senegal, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Gabon, Guinea, Palestine, the Comoros Islands, Qatar, the Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Libya, the Maldives, Mali, Malaysia, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Yemen.

Fate of Hannibal Gadhafi Pending Interpol Response on his Arrest
Naharnet/December 15/15/The son of late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Hannibal, will remain held in Lebanon until authorities receive a response from Interpol about him, reported the daily An Nahar. General Prosecutor Judge Samir Hammoud told the daily that Lebanon can go ahead and continue investigations with him based on the arrest warrant issued against him on Monday. It could also await the response from Interpol seeing as Hannibal is wanted by Libyan authorities. He noted however that he received a message from the Libyan justice minister informing him that the position of general prosecutor is vacant in the country and therefore no wanted suspects can be handed over to the concerned authorities there. Asked about the failure to file a complaint against the detainee, Hammoud told As Safir newspaper that this issue is pending the response from Interpol. Lebanon should have a response within 15 days, he explained. “If a reply is not made within that time, then the Lebanese judiciary could release Hannibal as long as he is not wanted for a crime committed in Lebanon,” the revealed. He remarked however that the fact that a Lebanese arrest warrant has been issued against him gives Lebanon the priority to carry out investigations with him before any other power. “He cannot be handed to Libyan authorities until Lebanon is done with him,” Hammoud said. The Interpol red notice against Hannibal Gadhafi, and 15 other Libyan officials, including his father,, was issued in 2011. Hannibal was briefly kidnapped in Lebanon last week before being released on Friday. He said that he was abducted by a group that is "loyal to the cause of Imam Moussa al-Sadr," the founder of Lebanon's AMAL Movement who disappeared while on a trip to Libya in 1978. The judiciary on Monday issued an arrest warrant against Hannibal on charges of withholding information linked to the case of Imam Moussa al-Sadr. He confessed that the Libyan regime was involved in the abduction of Imam al-Sadr, naming the person who impersonated the imam and traveled to Rome in 1978. He noted that the sources of his information were his brother Seif al-Islam and intelligence official Al-Mutassem Billah. On August 25, 1978, al-Sadr and two companions -- Sheikh Mohammed Yaaqoub and journalist Abbas Badreddine -- departed for Libya to meet with government officials. The visit was paid upon the invitation of then Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi. The three were seen lastly on August 31. They were never heard from again. The Lebanese judiciary indicted Moammar Gadhafi in 2008 over al-Sadr's disappearance, although Libya had consistently denied responsibility, claiming that the imam and his companions had left Libya for Italy. Hannibal was among a group of family members -- including Gadhafi's wife Safiya, son Mohammed and daughter Aisha -- who escaped to neighboring Algeria after the fall of the Libyan capital Tripoli. He is married to Lebanese lingerie model Aline Skaff.

Report: Geagea Still Does Not Rule out Possibility of Nominating Aoun for President
Naharnet/December 15/15/Contacts between the rival Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement are ongoing “on an almost daily basis” on all issues, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Tuesday in the wake of the latest efforts to end the presidential deadlock in the country. Sources from the LF told the daily that LF chief Samir Geagea “has not abandoned the idea of nominating former FPM head MP Michel Aoun as president.” “There is a time and place however for such proposals,” they added. Media reports had spoken of the possibility that Geagea could advocate the candidacy of his rival Aoun in response to the initiative that was launched by Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri to nominate Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president.Geagea is a presidential candidate and Hariri's ally in the March 14 camp. The LF leader and Hariri had held talks over the weekend to address the latest developments in the presidential file.Aoun is a presidential nominee himself. His refusal to withdraw from the race in favor of Franjieh is seen as one of the obstacles thwarting the latter's official nomination for the presidency.
Aoun and Franjieh are both part of the March 8 alliance. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.

Report: Diplomats See Flaws in how Hariri's Initiative was Proposed
Naharnet/December 15/15/Efforts to adopt the initiative to end the political and presidential deadlock in Lebanon, which was proposed by Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri, will be postponed to the new year as various ambassadors in Lebanon prepare to head on vacation for the upcoming holidays, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Tuesday. French, American, and Saudi Arabian diplomatic contacts in recent days “concluded that the manner in which Hariri's initiative was unveiled was flawed,” said the daily. They stressed the need to “rectify it, either by convincing those who oppose it to go ahead with it or to come up with a new presidential candidate.”“During their recent talks with Lebanese officials, various diplomats expressed their belief that Hariri's proposal has somewhat failed, seeing as the majority of these ambassadors will return home for the holidays,” explained the daily.
Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. Recent efforts to end the vacuum saw Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh emerge as a candidate as part of a greater settlement that would revitalize the political scene in the country. The proposal, launched by Hariri, has however been met with the reservations of the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb Party, and the Free Patriotic Movement. The 33rd session to elect a president will be held on Wednesday amid predictions that it will meet the fate of its predecessors.

Last Mustaqbal-Hizbullah Dialogue Session of 2015 Set for Thursday
Naharnet/December 15/15/The last round of dialogue between the rival Mustaqbal Movement and Hizbullah will be held on Thursday, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Tuesday. It said that the talks were set for Monday, but the death of Speaker Nabih Berri's sister prompted their postponement.
The dialogue is being held under the speaker's sponsorship and at his Ain el-Tineh residence. Like previous rounds, Thursday's discussions are expected to focus on the latest developments in the country, most notably the presidential deadlock. Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri has been spearheading efforts to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president, sparking objections from his allies in the March 14 camp and reservations from Change and Reform bloc head MP Michel Aoun, of the March 8 camp. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.

Minister Sejaan Azzi.: Lebanon not part of Saudi-led counterterror coalition
Now Lebanon/December 15/16/BEIRUT – A Lebanese minister has insisted that his country is not part of a newly announced Saudi-led counterterror alliance, contradicting Riyadh’s own statement on its formation. “Lebanon is not a participant in the Islamic coalition against terrorism,” Labor Minister Sejaan Azzi told MTV in an interview Tuesday. The minister stressed to the local TV station that in the absence of a president—a post vacant since May 2014—Lebanon can only join a foreign military alliance with the approval of the country’s cabinet. He added that the Lebanese cabinet was not informed of any move to join the Saudi-led coalition. Azzi’s interview came hours after Saudi Arabia heralded the formation of a 34-nation Islamic military alliance headquartered in Riyadh, listing Lebanon as a member in its official statement. The coalition does not include Riyadh’s arch-foe Iran—the main backer of Lebanon’s Hezbollah—as well as Iraq and Syria, among others. Saudi Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman said that the Islamic alliance would work against not only ISIS, but also “any terrorist organization that appears in front of us,” without going into concrete details on the organization’s planned military operations.
Azzi—a member of Christian Kataeb Party—took issue with his country being a member of an Islamic alliance, saying that Lebanon was neither a Christian nor Islamic state. Lebanese PM Tammam Salam, for his part, hailed the Saudi announcement of the new coalition, but did explain concretely whether he believed Beirut had joined the body. “Any executive steps [needed to be taken by] Lebanon within the framework of the Islamist alliance will be studied and dealt with according to Lebanon’s constitutional and legal frameworks,” the premier said in a statement. Salam also said that Lebanon should “not hesitate to bless any endeavor” to mobilize efforts to confront the threat of terror, in a possible hint that Beirut has not yet taken an official decision on joining the Saudi-led coalition.NOW's English news desk editor Albin Szakola (@AlbinSzakola) compiled this report. Amin Nasr translated the Arabic-language source material.

Gaddafi son could face jail in Lebanon
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/December 16/15
After long history of trouble with the law around the world, slain dictator’s son Hannibal may have run out of luck
An undated picture allegedly found in the personal laptop of Hannibal Gaddafi and released by Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) fighters on 27 September 2011 shows Hannibal Gaddafi, son of Libyan ousted leader Muammar Gaddafi, and his Lebanese wife Aline Skaf at a restaurant in Tunisia. (AFP/Family album)
After a turbulent few days for Hannibal Muammar Gaddafi that saw him kidnapped, beaten, transferred to police, and then sent to court in Lebanon for questioning, the son of the late Libyan dictator was served an arrest warrant Monday on charges of withholding information about the disappearance of a leading Iranian-Lebanese Shiite Muslim cleric and politician, Al-Imam Musa al-Sadr, along with two of his companions during a state visit to Libya in 1978.
Despite unconfirmed reports that Hannibal admitted his father’s regime’s responsibility for Sadr’s disappearance, the witness-turned-defendant was deemed by Examining Magistrate Zaher Hamadeh to be concealing information about the case, and may now be held in Lebanon for up to four months, and even jailed if found guilty, legal experts told NOW.
“He can be held for two months, renewable for the same period of time,” said Lebanese lawyer and constitutional expert Marwan Saqr. “So the maximum they can keep him arrested for is four months.”
Saqr added that if found guilty, Gaddafi could be jailed in Lebanon – a view shared by a lawyer representing the family of Imam al-Sadr, Shadi Hussein, who has filed a private lawsuit against Gaddafi distinct from the arrest warrant issued by the public judiciary.
“This is the Lebanese state’s jurisdiction,” Hussein told NOW. “His [hypothetical] jail term would be in Lebanon.”
For legal reasons, Hussein said he “could neither confirm nor deny” reports about what Gaddafi said in the courtroom Monday. However, he did tell NOW “the arrest warrant issued against [him] confirms and indicates the seriousness and significance of the information he said inside the court.”
According to local media, that information included a “confession,” citing conversations with his brother Saif al-Islam and an intelligence official, Al-Mu`tasim Billah, that Libyan regime operatives “detained” Al-Sadr in a house in Libya’s Tripoli, and the cleric “never left for Rome” as was long asserted by the regime thereafter.
“My father blamed [former Libyan Prime Minister] Abd al-Salam Jalloud in the case of Al-Sadr’s disappearance,” Hannibal reportedly told Judge Hamadeh. Jalloud, who took part in the 1969 coup that brought Gaddafi to power, was the ruler’s trusted right-hand-man until the pair fell out in the 1990s. During the 2011 revolt against Gaddafi’s 42-year-old regime, Jalloud defected to the opposition, denouncing his former boss as a “tyrant” and “sick person” in a fiery address broadcast on Al Jazeera.
While Jalloud may well thus represent a convenient scapegoat, his involvement in such an operation, if indeed it occurred, would hardly have been unlikely. In the early years of Lebanon’s 1975-90 civil war – which is when Al-Sadr disappeared – Jalloud was personally involved in mediation efforts between a multitude of factions, from the Syrian regime to Yasser Arafat’s Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) to Kamal Jumblatt’s Lebanese National Movement to Bashir Gemayel’s Lebanese Forces. If any of these disparate groups were conspiring to have Al-Sadr killed in Libya, Jalloud would have been a natural point of contact.
And indeed, such a conspiracy has long been theorized by observers of the case, even though Al-Sadr’s fate officially remains unknown (and many supporters in Lebanon and elsewhere believe he’s still alive, which would make him 87). The late Lebanese-American academic Fouad Ajami, for example, who penned a biography of Al-Sadr, wrote in a 2011 op-ed that the cleric was “killed […] at the behest of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat,” whose fighters at the time were battling Al-Sadr’s forces in South Lebanon. Ajami based the claim on “operatives of the Libyan regime [who] have recently admitted that the imam was indeed killed” – perhaps a reference to former Libyan ambassador to the Arab League, Abd al-Mun`im al-Houni, who in February 2011 told Al-Hayat newspaper Al-Sadr was killed by Gaddafi’s men and buried in the south Libyan city of Sabha.
Logical though the Arafat connection may appear, other hypotheses persist, including one that Gaddafi personally murdered Al-Sadr following a heated argument over theology. In 2014, Pulitzer Prize-winning author Kai Bird published a book based in part on previously-classified CIA intelligence, in which he claimed a close aide of Iranian Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Sayyid Muhammad Beheshti, was responsible for Al-Sadr’s killing, as the latter’s opposition to Khomeini’s wilayat al-faqih doctrine obstructed the ayatollah’s plans to establish what would later become Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“The Imam Musa al-Sadr was an impediment to Beheshti's vision for exporting the Khomeini revolution to places like Lebanon that had a large Shiite population,” Bird told NOW in an interview.
Perhaps the coming days will reveal which of the theories, if any, is correct.
Violent capture of a man well-acquainted with violence
News of Hannibal’s presence in Lebanon surfaced Friday evening with a video showing him sporting two black eyes in an undisclosed location, telling the camera he was in the custody of “people […] loyal to the cause [of] their leader, their chieftain […] Al-Imam Musa al-Sadr.” According to one version of events, Gaddafi was in fact kidnapped in Damascus – by a cousin of President Bashar al-Assad, no less – where he had resided after leaving asylum in Algeria, before being transferred to an unknown group in Lebanon, who then handed him over to the Internal Security Forces (ISF). When contacted by NOW Monday for confirmation, ISF press spokesperson Maj. Joseph Msallem said he did not “have any idea about” the case.
An AFP journalist at the courtroom described Gaddafi as limping from his injuries, still bearing his twin black eyes. The feeling must have been novel for the man more accustomed to inflicting, rather than receiving, physical abuse. His international rap sheet includes leaving his wife, Lebanese model Aline Skaf, bleeding with a broken nose after beating her in London’s exclusive Claridge’s hotel in 2009; assaulting two servants in an equally opulent Geneva hotel in 2008, sparking a diplomatic crisis between Switzerland and Libya; assaulting a heavily-pregnant Skaf in Paris in 2005, leading to a suspended jail sentence and a €500 fine; and various other scuffles with authorities across Europe, including the hospitalization of three policemen in Rome following a brawl in 2001. For her part, Hannibal’s wife was revealed in 2011 to have visited even worse cruelties on domestic workers, such as Ethiopian nanny Shweyga Mullah, who was left with severe facial and bodily burns after Skaf poured scalding water over her.
Victims of these and other crimes of Gaddafi père’s regime may draw some relief, therefore, from Hannibal now being in custody (even if Skaf’s own whereabouts remain unknown). For even if Gaddafi fils is cleared of all charges in Lebanon, authorities have confirmed he is subject to an INTERPOL red notice, and as a longstanding member state of INTERPOL, Lebanon will hand him over to the Libyan authorities if and when it is satisfied of his innocence in Al-Sadr’s case.
Or, rather, it will, if there exists a Libyan judiciary to receive him, as the Libyan justice minister reportedly told Lebanon’s General Prosecutor Samir Hammoud there presently is not.
“It’s a mess over there” in Libya, the lawyer Saqr told NOW.
“I don’t think he’s going to be handed over soon.”
**Alex Rowell tweets @disgraceofgod
**Amin Nasr contributed reporting.

The Franjieh Presidency: A Step Backward for Lebanon
Lebanese Information Center (LIC)/December 14, 2015
Background
Since the withdrawal of Syrian armed forces in 2005, following massive demonstrations protesting the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon’s political scene has been divided between the pro-West March 14 bloc and the Iranian-backed March 18 coalition. Ever since, the country has been pulled in two directions: the “Friends of Lebanon,” including the United States, European Union members and Sunni Arab states on one side, and an expanding Iranian-Syrian nexus on the other.
Since its inception, the March 14 bloc has continued to call for freedom, sovereignty, and independence in Lebanon, and has the support of many within the international community. The March 8 coalition, meanwhile, is backed by the despotic rulers of Syria and Iran, as well as Hezbollah. During an intense period of political upheaval between 2006 and 2008, Hezbollah, backed by Iran and Syria, launched a campaign of assassinations targeting elements of March 14, its sympathizers, affiliate journalists, members of parliament, and other politicians and Lebanese security officials.
This period of terror culminated in May of 2008, when Hezbollah militarily occupied Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut and Druze towns in the mountains. That same month, former Army Commander Michel Suleiman was elected President of Lebanon, with the blessing of Hezbollah and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. But towards the end of his term, Suleiman distanced himself from both the “Hezb” and from Assad by developing a platform of national sovereignty and defending Lebanon’s independence and territorial integrity. His presidency ended in 2014, and Lebanese presidential politics have been deadlocked ever since.
The Presidential Vacuum and the Hariri Proposal
According to the Lebanese Constitution, Parliament elects the president with a two-thirds approval threshold in the first round. If no candidate wins under this stipulation, subsequent rounds are held in which the president is elected by a simple majority vote: 51%. Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri has incorrectly interpreted the constitutional clause to enforce a two-thirds quorum just to hold a vote, which is not what the authors of the constitution intended. Essentially, this could give a one-third minority of the electoral body the power to paralyze the system until they can impose their conditions and their candidate on the majority. In 2014, the March 14 coalition proposed Lebanese Forces Party head Samir Geagea as their candidate. March 8, meanwhile, chose to back Michel Aoun, head of the rival Free Patriotic Movement. Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt, not affiliated with either of these coalitions, nominated Henri Helou. An election was held in April 2014 in which no candidate won two-thirds. Since then, Iran and its proxies in Lebanon have been the perennial roadblocks to realizing a meaningful presidential vote. The systematic boycott by the March 8 alliance of 32 presidential voting sessions in the past 20 months has allowed the speaker to declare “no quorum,” effectively deadlocking the process. But in a supposed compromise agreement this November, Future Movement head Saad Hariri nominated Christian leader Sleiman Franjieh as president. The Franjiehs have close family ties to the Assads of Syria, and Sleiman had formed a close relationship with Hafez al-Assad’s eldest son, Bassel, and later with his brother Bashar. Franjieh is head of the Marada Party, which is influential in a small area in northern Lebanon. He holds extreme views, calling Hezbollah military mastermind Imad Mughniyeh a Lebanese legend and proudly brandishing his loyalty to Assad and Hezbollah.
The Ramifications of the Hariri Proposal
This proposal, evidently connived by Hariri, Berri and Jumblatt, has totally bypassed Lebanon’s Christian community and has marginalized Samir Geagea and Michel Aoun. Both Geagea and Aoun as well as several Christian independent figures have expressed their rejection of the deal.
It has also alienated many in the Lebanese Sunni community, as it would institute a president loyal to Assad, who has killed tens of thousands of Sunni Muslims in Syria. Assad is also accused of playing a major role in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, an icon in Lebanon’s Sunni community.
Franjieh’s nomination has already sparked serious tensions in the March 14 coalition, and his election could tear the bloc apart. This coalition has united greater Lebanese society under a banner of freedom, democracy and pluralism. Franjieh’s nomination would only serve to dissolve that culture.
Franjieh as president would also be disastrous from a security perspective. As a friend of the Assad regime, he would undermine the efforts to disassociate Lebanon from the Syrian conflict and bring back the pro-Syrian officers who dominated Lebanon’s security apparatus during the Syrian occupation, jeopardizing the objectivity and the impartiality of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Internal Security Forces (ISF). If the LAF and ISF become dominated by Hezbollah and pro-Assad apparatchiks, U.S. security assistance can no longer be tenable.
Conclusion:
Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are moving to secure their interests with a Franjieh presidency. Handing over the Lebanese presidency to an ally of Iran will only further exacerbate Sunni-Shia tensions and serve to destabilize Lebanon. Lebanese institutions and its security forces will be compromised, and the state as a whole will be weaker. Saad Hariri's initiative has already been rejected by his allies in the March 14 coalition, and by the Christian political leadership in the country, as well as criticized by many within the Sunni community. Moreover, this outcome will endanger US interests as well as those of allies and friends in Lebanon and the region. The “Friends of Lebanon” – chiefly among them, the U.S. – should denounce this plan as harmful to Lebanon, the state and the nation.

Missile test in Iran violated U.N. ban: expert panel
By Reuters, United Nations/Vienna Tuesday, 15 December 2015/The Emad rocket that Iran tested on Oct. 10 was a ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, which makes it a violation of a United Nations Security Council resolution, a team of sanctions monitors said in a confidential new report. “On the basis of its analysis and findings the Panel concludes that Emad launch is a violation by Iran of paragraph 9 of Security Council resolution 1929,” the council’s Panel of Experts on Iran said in its report. Reuters on Tuesday reviewed the 10-page report, which was dated Dec. 11 and went to members of the Security Council’s Iran sanctions committee in recent days. IAEA decides to close nuke probe. Meanwhile, the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation board decided on Tuesday to close its investigation into whether Iran once had a nuclear weapons program, opting to support Tehran’s deal with major powers rather than dwell on its past activities. In a symbolic victory for Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors passed a resolution that would end its long-running inquiry but allows inspectors to continue to police the country’s nuclear program. “Done,” a diplomat in the closed-door IAEA board meeting said by text message, adding that the decision was reached by consensus, meaning the resolution was unopposed. Other diplomats confirmed the outcome of the session. The IAEA produced a report this month that strongly suggested Iran had a secret nuclear weapons program up until 2003, though it found no sign of weapons-related activities beyond 2009. Despite the finding -- the clearest indication yet by the IAEA, after 12 years of investigation, that Iran was trying to develop an atom bomb even though it denies that accusation -- the international response to the report has been muted. The United States, Russia, Britain, France, Germany and China reached a deal with Tehran in July under which sanctions weighing on Iran's economy will be lifted in exchange for restrictions on the Islamic Republic's atomic activities. Those six powers want to press ahead with implementing the July deal and hoped that the IAEA report, produced under the deal, would draw a line under the long-disputed issue of so-called “possible military dimensions” to Iran’s activities.
Sacrifice?
Supporters of the July deal argue that it gives the IAEA far more intrusive powers to inspect Iran’s facilities and to monitor what it is doing, and that it extends the time Tehran would need to build an atom bomb if it chose to do so. “As we close out this important chapter here today, we must remain mindful that we are not closing the agency’s ability to investigate any potential concerns that may arise,” U.S. envoy Henry Ensher said in the text of his speech to the board. With companies from the six powers and other nations lining up to do business in the Islamic Republic once sanctions are lifted, there had been little opposition to the resolution. Beyond the IAEA board, however, some have argued that a full examination of Iran’s past violations of its nuclear no-proliferation obligations has been sacrificed for the sake of the political agreement reached in Vienna in July. “Iran’s cooperation was certainly not sufficient to close the overall PMD file,” said the Washington-based Institute for Science and Technology, which follows the Iran case closely. Tuesday’s board resolution provides for the heading under which Iran was being investigated to be closed once Iran puts in place the restrictions on its nuclear activities called for by the July deal, which Iran expects to have done by January. The resolution also asks the IAEA’s chief to report to the Board of Governors and the U.N. Security Council “at any time if the Director General has reasonable grounds to believe there is an issue of concern.”
Israeli warns
Israel on Tuesday warned “serious doubts” still surround Iran’s nuclear program. “The IAEA report clearly indicates once again that Iran has conducted a coordinated effort to develop a nuclear explosive device, including activities taking place after 2003,” the Israeli foreign ministry said.
“For over a decade, Iran has been non-cooperative and deceptive,” a ministry statement read. “Serious doubts and outstanding issues regarding Iran’s program still remain.”“Iran is still required to cooperate fully and in a satisfying manner with the agency in order to resolve all outstanding issues and verify the peaceful nature of Iran’s program,” it added.(With AFP)

Saudi reopens Baghdad embassy after 25 years
AFP, Baghdad Wednesday, 16 December 2015/Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Baghdad Tuesday, a quarter of a century after relations were broken over Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, a foreign ministry official said. “The staff of the Saudi embassy arrived today in Baghdad,” the official told AFP. “They were met at the airport by foreign ministry officials. The staff consists of 35 people, led by the ambassador’s deputy.” The ambassador himself is due to arrive by Thursday and will attend an official opening ceremony. A consulate is expected to open later in Erbil, capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region. Diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq were severed in 1990 but restored in 2004 after the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein. Relations remain strained between the Gulf kingdom, a Sunni powerhouse, and Shiite-dominated Iraq, where Iran and armed groups loyal to it wield huge influence. Iraqi officials have repeatedly accused Riyadh of abetting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group, which took over swathes of the country last year.

Al-Azhar Urges Muslim Nations to Join Saudi-led Anti-Terror Coalition
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/Sunni Islam's leading seat of learning, al-Azhar, on Tuesday urged all Muslim countries to join a Saudi-led military coalition formed to fight "terrorism" in the Islamic world. The Cairo-based institution hailed the formation of the 34-nation alliance announced by Saudi Arabia as "historic," and said it hoped it would defeat the "evils of terrorism.""This was an urgent demand of the people of Islamic countries who have suffered more than others from this black terrorism," al-Ahzar said in a statement. "Al-Azhar calls on all Islamic countries to join this coalition to counter terrorism... that has committed horrible crimes indiscriminately." The 34 countries participating in the coalition belong to the Jeddah-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman said the alliance would tackle "the Islamic world's problem with terrorism and will be a partner in the worldwide fight against this scourge."

Saudi Forms 34-Nation 'Anti-Terrorist' Military Coalition
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday the formation of a military coalition of 34 countries to fight "terrorism" in the Islamic world, in the latest sign of a more assertive foreign policy by the kingdom. The regional Sunni power said the alliance would share intelligence, combat violent ideology and deploy troops if necessary. "Nothing is off the table. A number of countries are in desperate need of assistance," Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said. "Terrorism has hit Islamic countries. It is time that the Islamic world takes a stand," he told reporters in Paris. The alliance was announced by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also defense minister, on the same day that peace talks between the Yemeni government and Iran-backed rebels began in Switzerland, accompanied by a ceasefire. Adam Baron, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the coalition fits into "the larger, more assertive policy" of Saudi King Salman and Mohammed, his powerful son. The prince told a rare news conference that the Riyadh-based coalition will tackle "the Islamic world's problem with terrorism and will be a partner in the worldwide fight against this scourge."Some coalition members like Nigeria have mixed Muslim-Christian populations, but all belong to the Jeddah-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation. They range from tiny African nations such as Guinea to major regional powers including Turkey. Farea al-Muslimi, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, called most of them "honorary members" in a coalition that "seemed to have been cooked at the last minute" without clear goals. Muslimi said the coalition seems like an attempt by Saudi Arabia to ease some of the international pressure it has faced on the issue. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters in Ankara on Tuesday that his country backed the alliance's formation. "Turkey is ready to contribute by all its means to all gatherings that aim to fight terrorism, no matter where or by whom it is organized," he said. Sunni Islam's leading seat of learning, Al-Azhar, urged all Muslim countries to join the coalition, expressing hope that it would defeat the "evils of terrorism."
Huge costs
The coalition will fight "any terrorist organization that appears," Mohammed said when asked if it would concentrate only on the Islamic State (IS) group of Sunni extremists in Syria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly denounced international "terrorism" and has itself seen an upsurge of attacks claimed by IS over the past year, against minority Shiites and members of the security forces. The kingdom is founded on the teachings of fundamentalist cleric Mohammed bin Abdul Wahhab, whose thought has been accused of fueling deadly Sunni extremism around the world, including that of IS. The IS threat "is the most fundamental challenge to Saudi's raison d'etat and the security of its citizens," said Andreas Krieg, a professor at the Department of Defense Studies at King's College London. "It is therefore not surprising for Saudi to seek greater cooperation across the board in the fight against militant Islamism," said Krieg, who also serves as a consultant to the Qatari armed forces. The huge human and financial costs of the kingdom's military operation in Yemen have become increasingly difficult for it to bear, he said. "Only joint military operations are a real option."In March, the kingdom formed an Arab coalition to support the Yemeni government against Iran-backed Huthi rebels and their allies, who seized much of the country.
Prominent Saudi role
Saudi Arabia has also played a prominent role in efforts to find a political solution to the war in Syria. Last week, it hosted unprecedented talks between opposition Syrian political and military factions. Muslimi and Krieg did not see the new coalition leading to a more direct Saudi military role in Syria. Saudi Arabia supports some rebels in Syria, and last year joined other Gulf states in a U.S.-led coalition bombing IS in Syria. The UAE said two weeks ago that it was ready to commit ground troops against jihadists in Syria, and described Russian air strikes there as attacks on a "common enemy."Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Russia awaited more details before evaluating the Saudi announcement about the new coalition.

Suspect Arrested over Paris Attacks as Raids Continue across France
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/A 29-year-old man was arrested in the Paris region on Tuesday as part of the vast investigation into last month's attacks on the city that left 130 dead, a judicial source said. The probe has seen 2,700 police raids and 360 people placed under house arrest since the attacks by the Islamic State group, which triggered a nationwide state of emergency. Two men are already in custody, accused of providing accommodation to Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the suspected ringleader who was killed in a major police raid in northern Paris five days after the attacks. Eight men have been arrested in Belgium, where the attacks are thought to have been organized, and one man has been detained in Turkey on suspicion of scouting the concert hall, bars and restaurants where the attacks took place. Six counter-terrorism judges are overseeing the investigation -- an unprecedented number for France. But three of the nine attackers have yet to be identified, including two of the three suicide bombers who blew themselves up outside the Stade de France stadium, who appear to have used fake passports to sneak into Europe posing as refugees. The other unidentified man is thought to have taken part in the gun attacks on the terraces of restaurants and bistros and died alongside Abaaoud in the shootout with police on November 18. Salah Abdeslam, a 26-year-old French citizen thought to have played a key logistical role, is still on the run and subject to an international arrest warrant. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said a total of 334 people had been arrested since the attacks, of whom 287 were held for questioning, and that over 400 weapons had been seized. Some 1,800 French citizens have been linked to jihadist networks, the minister said, including more than 600 were currently in Syria and Iraq and 144 had died in fighting there. He said 250 had returned to France, while around 500 were "preparing to leave" and the rest already in transit. Separately, two men were also being questioned on Tuesday in relation to the attacks in January on the French capital that targeted Charlie Hebdo magazine, police and a Jewish supermarket. One of the men, 52-year-old Claude Hermant, was said by prosecutors to have links to far-right groups. Investigators believe an assault rifle and four Tokarev pistols found in the arsenal of Amedy Coulibaly, the jihadist who killed four people at the Hyper Cacher supermarket, may have been sourced from Hermant. He was charged with arms trafficking earlier this year. A total of seven people have been charged with providing weapons or vehicles to Coulibaly. All deny any knowledge he was planning an attack.Seventeen people died in three days of attacks around Paris carried out by Coulibaly and brothers Said and Cherif Kouachi. The three attackers were killed in police assaults on January 9.

Yemen Ceasefire Violations Kill 24 as Peace Talks Begin
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/Several attacks rocked a fragile ceasefire in Yemen Tuesday as the warring sides began U.N.-brokered peace talks in Switzerland, military and medical sources said. The Saudi-led coalition, which launched an air war against the Huthi Shiite rebels and their allies in March, said the ceasefire began as scheduled at midday (0900 GMT). But just hours later, Yemeni rebel artillery and tanks killed seven civilians and wounded 15 in residential areas of Taez city, witnesses and medics said. Two loyalists had already been killed in the east and mortar rounds hit government forces in the southwestern province of Taez after the truce took effect, officials said. Later Tuesday, rebels killed 15 pro-government fighters and wounded 20 in Mas in the eastern province of Marib, a military source said. The violations came even after rebel military spokesman General Sharaf Luqman "welcomed" the U.N. call for a ceasefire, in a statement on their sabanews.net website. He said he hoped "aggressor parties would truly and seriously commit to a halt in fighting." A spokesman for rebel-allied ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh's General People's Congress, which is represented at the Switzerland talks, made a similar statement. The unidentified spokesman urged "all parties to commit to a complete and permanent ceasefire," in a statement on the party's almotamar.net website. Previous U.N. efforts have failed to narrow differences, with ceasefire attempts foiled. Speaking in Switzerland, the U.N. envoy to Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, called the truce "a critical first step towards building a lasting peace in the country." He said the peace talks "seek to establish a permanent ceasefire and pave the way for a return to a peaceful and orderly political transition."
'Dozens of violations'
U.N. spokesman Ahmad Fawzi confirmed that the talks had begun at an undisclosed location, with 12 negotiators and six advisers on each of the two delegations. Before the truce, clashes shook the flashpoint city of Taez and coalition warplanes bombed rebel positions. Saba news agency later quoted local activists as saying rebels carried out "dozens of violations of the ceasefire" in Taez since midday. Soon after the truce began, a Yemeni security official reported five mortar rounds targeted pro-Hadi forces in Shuraija, south of Taez. In the eastern province of Marib, clashes killed two pro-Hadi fighters in the early afternoon before subsiding, military sources said. A pro-Hadi officer told AFP: "We have received orders from our military leadership not to respond to the rebel shelling unless they advance towards us." The coalition has warned that it "reserves the right to respond in case of any violation."Hadi has declared his government's intention to have a seven-day truce coincide with the peace talks and to be "renewed automatically if the other party commits to it," the coalition said. A presidential statement said the proposed ceasefire "comes out of keenness to grab any chance to achieve peace, to reduce the suffering of our people in Yemen and to end bloodshed."Civilians are anxious to see peace prevail. "We demand the warring parties who are in Geneva now offer concessions... because all Yemenis are eager to get Yemen out of this crisis," one Sanaa resident told AFP.
Lull sorely needed
A lull in fighting is sorely needed in the Arabian Peninsula's poorest nation, where the U.N. says an estimated 80 percent of the population requires humanitarian aid. The World Health Organization representative in Yemen, Ahmed Shadoul, said the agency had received assurances from the factions that its staff were free to distribute medical supplies while the truce holds. "We have requested unconditional movement of supplies, personnel and teams to all parts of the country and we got the confirmation that this will definitely be granted," Shadoul said in Geneva. More than 5,800 people have been killed in Yemen -- about half of them civilians -- and more than 27,000 wounded since March, according to the U.N. Jihadists, including the Islamic State group, have exploited the violence, gaining ground and carrying out deadly attacks against both sides. Ahead of the ceasefire, coalition warplanes bombed rebel positions in Taez and south of Sanaa, witnesses and a military official said. Pro-government forces have also captured the Red Sea island of Zuqar near the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, Saudi media reported. Sabanews.net said 10 people were killed and 20 wounded in an air raid early Tuesday on Bani Haddad village in the Haradh area of north Yemen. The warring parties have agreed to talk despite protracted differences, including over a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for rebels to withdraw from key cities and surrender their weapons. The government and its Gulf allies say the resolution is a prerequisite for peace.

Saudi Reopens Baghdad Embassy after 25 Years
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Baghdad Tuesday, a quarter of a century after relations were broken over Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, a foreign ministry official said. "The staff of the Saudi embassy arrived today in Baghdad," the official told AFP. "They were met at the airport by foreign ministry officials. The staff consists of 35 people, led by the ambassador's deputy." The ambassador himself is due to arrive by Thursday and will attend an official opening ceremony. A consulate is expected to open later in Arbil, capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region. Diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq were severed in 1990 but restored in 2004 after the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein. Relations remain strained between the Gulf kingdom, a Sunni powerhouse, and Shiite-dominated Iraq, where Iran and armed groups loyal to it wield huge influence. Iraqi officials have repeatedly accused Riyadh of abetting the Islamic State group, which took over swathes of the country last year.

Lavrov, Kerry: Syria Talks to Go Ahead on Friday in New York
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/Russia and the United States said that a planned international meeting on the Syrian crisis would take place in New York on Friday, after President Vladimir Putin received U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. "We support the idea of convening in New York another meeting of the International Syria Support Group at the ministerial level this Friday, December 18," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks at the Kremlin. Kerry, whose meeting with Putin lasted for nearly three hours, also confirmed the meeting would take place. Washington and Moscow are the key powers in the process, leading talks through the 17-nation International Syria Support Group. Kerry had come to Moscow on Tuesday not knowing whether Russia would agree that the Syria crisis meeting should take place on Friday in New York. "Our meeting focused principally on Syria, counterterrorism and Ukraine," the top U.S. diplomat said. He also said he conveyed to Putin Washington's concern "that some of Russia's strikes have hit the moderate opposition" in Syria, and not just the Islamic State group. "And I'm pleased to say he took that under advisement," Kerry said. Both he and Lavrov said the negotiations would lead quickly to a U.N. Security Council resolution to underpin the Syria peace process. Russia and the United States are sponsors of an international effort to broker a ceasefire and political talks between President Bashar Assad's regime and the armed opposition.
'Common threats'
But their positions on Assad's eventual fate and on the best tactics to employ against the jihadist IS group differ starkly, threatening to stymie the process. "On the Syrian settlement we were focusing on intensifying our efforts in counter-terrorism," Lavrov said. "ISIL, Jabhat al-Nusra and other terrorist groups are common threats to every one of us and today we reiterated our determination to uproot this evil," he said, referring to the IS and al-Nusra Front jihadist groups. Earlier Tuesday, Kerry called Lavrov the "co-convenor" of the talks and thanked him for his efforts "to lead us up now hopefully to getting to New York and building on the progress that's been made." But the negotiations had been in jeopardy after Moscow took issue with last week's unprecedented rebel talks in Saudi Arabia, charging that several "terrorist" groups had taken part in them. U.S.-Russia ties have also been strained over the crisis in Ukraine, but the U.S. side said it would not be drawn into bargaining with Russia over the sanctions it imposed over Moscow's interference there. "We had a good discussion on Ukraine," Kerry said, adding that when Russia meets the conditions set out in a Western-brokered peace agreement, "sanctions can begin to be rolled back."

Syria Army Resumes Use of Key Air Base after Ending Siege
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/Syrian troops resumed military activity Tuesday at a key northern air base that had been besieged for more than two years by anti-government forces, state television reported. "Warplanes and helicopters have resumed activity at the Kweyris military airport, after the valiant army secured its surroundings," state television said. Backed by Russian air strikes, Syria's armed forces broke the siege around Kweyris, in Aleppo province, in November. The Islamic State group surrounded Kweyris in spring 2014, tightening a siege that rebel groups began in April 2013. Television footage showed helicopters taking off and flying over the base, as well as a live interview with Colonel Suheil Hassan, who led the forces that broke the siege. Hassan, nicknamed "The Tiger", said the "huge accomplishment... was only realized because of the blood of our martyrs and our wounded." The report said the base would now become "the launching point to strike Daesh bases in eastern parts of Aleppo province," using the Arabic acronym for IS. Syrian troops and allied Lebanese Hizbullah fighters are fighting rebels and IS in eastern and southern parts of Aleppo province.
And since September 30, Russia's air force has been conducting strikes against a mosaic of anti-regime groups across Syrian territory.

French Far-Right Leader Le Pen Acquitted of Inciting Hatred
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far-right National Front (FN), was acquitted Tuesday of charges of inciting hatred after comparing Muslim street prayers to the Nazi occupation. The 47-year-old had been accused of "inciting discrimination, violence or hatred toward a group of people based on their religious beliefs" over the comments she made on the campaign trail in December 2010. However magistrates in the southeast city of Lyon absolved her of any crime. The FN made a historic showing in regional elections on Sunday. Although the anti-immigration party did not manage to win any regions in the poll, its strong showing in a first round of voting panicked mainstream parties, forcing them to band together to strip votes from the FN in the second round. Nevertheless the party recorded its best-ever electoral score with 6.8 million votes, prompting Le Pen to crow: "Nothing can stop us now."Le Pen, who took over the party from her rabble-rousing father Jean-Marie in 2011, has worked hard to soften its image. However the party remains staunchly anti-EU and opposed to immigration and Le Pen has compared the flood of migrants on Europe's doorstep to the "barbarian invasions" of the fourth century. While on the campaign trail in December 2010, she complained about places in France where Muslims worshiped in the streets outside mosques when they were full. "I'm sorry, but for those who like talking a lot about World War II, if it comes to talking about the Occupation, we can talk about it, because that (Muslims praying on the street) is the occupation of territory," she told a crowd in Lyon. "It is an occupation of part of the territory, suburbs where religious law is applied. Sure, there are no armored vehicles, no soldiers, but it is an ccupation nonetheless and it weighs on residents."After the comments, which provoked outrage in France, Le Pen was investigated but the probe was later closed without further action. However, a complaint led to the launch of a judicial inquiry in January 2012. Le Pen was charged in July 2014 after her immunity as a member of the European Parliament was lifted following a vote requested by French authorities. While relieved of these charges, Le Pen is still facing legal woes. Her party has also been slapped with charges of fraud as part of an ongoing probe into campaign financing.

IAEA Board 'Closes' Iran Nuclear Bomb Probe
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/The U.N. atomic watchdog's board Tuesday drew a line under a long-running probe into Iran's past efforts to develop nuclear weapons, removing an important obstacle to implementing July's landmark deal with big powers. A resolution approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board of governors in Vienna "closes the board's consideration" of the "possible military dimensions" (PMD) probe and clears the way to annul previous resolutions. Iran's envoy to the IAEA said afterwards that Tehran would now "accelerate" enacting July's accord to scale down its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, and fulfill its side of the bargain within "two to three weeks.""We can say with certainty that the fraudulent issue of PMD is a thing of the past," Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in Tehran. He said that "the purely peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program has once again been proven."The IAEA keeps close tabs on Iran's declared nuclear activities, and its inspections role is set to grow under July's hard-fought deal, which defused a standoff dating back to 2002. But the Vienna-based watchdog has also long sought to clear up allegations that until 2003, and possibly since, Iran also secretly sought to develop an actual nuclear weapon. After stalling for many years, Iran agreed in July to cooperate with the IAEA to address the claims. The IAEA on December 2 released a "final assessment" -- even though it did not receive all the information it sought -- concluding that some of the allegations were indeed accurate. It said Iran conducted "a range of activities relevant to the development" of a nuclear bomb until 2009, although this work was preliminary and did not involve fissile material.
Continued scrutiny
Despite the findings, the six major powers -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, who co-authored the IAEA resolution -- decided to move on. Iran has a "long history of concealment, denial and deception", but the July deal is "forward-looking," the U.S. ambassador to the IAEA, Henry Ensher, said Tuesday. And the powers stress that Iran will remain under close IAEA scrutiny. The July deal "prohibits the resumption of such nuclear weapons-related activities and provides comprehensive tools for deterring and detecting any renewed nuclear weapons work," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday. "This is not the end of the process at all," IAEA head Yukiya Amano told reporters, saying that a "legacy of mistrust between Iran and the international community" remains to be overcome.
Implementation day
The IAEA will also have to confirm that Iran lives up to its commitments under the July deal -- on a day to be dubbed "Implementation Day" -- which is expected in early 2016. Under the deal Iran has pledged to slash the number of centrifuges -- which "enrich" uranium for peaceful uses but also for a bomb -- from around 19,000 to 6,104, of which 5,060 will still enrich. Iran also has to change the design of a new nuclear reactor being built at Arak and shrink its stock of low-enriched uranium, most likely by shipping it to Russia. The last IAEA update on November 18 said that Iran had removed some 4,500 centrifuges. However, there was no progress at Arak or on the uranium stock. "We are about to pack up the enriched uranium and send it out. It will take just two or three days," Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, told reporters. "We are planning to (remove the Arak reactor core) in two weeks, but we will see."Amano said however that the IAEA would still need "some weeks" to verify and confirm Iran's steps before sanctions can be lifted.

French Teacher who Invented IS Attack to Have Psychiatric Tests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/15/A French nursery school teacher who invented a story that he had been stabbed by a man shouting about the Islamic State group has been taken to hospital for psychiatric tests, the prosecutor's office said Tuesday. "A psychiatric evaluation will be made as soon as possible," the prosecutor's office said. The 45-year-old man will not return to the school in Aubervilliers, northeast of Paris, the education ministry said. The teacher had claimed that a man in overalls and a balaclava burst into his classroom early on Monday, grabbed a box cutter and scissors that he found in the room, and attacked him. He claimed that the man shouted: "This is Daesh. This is a warning." Daesh is another name for IS. In the immediate aftermath of the incident, security was raised at schools and Education Minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem visited the institution concerned. But later Monday, prosecutors said the man had admitted inventing the story and cutting himself on the neck and side. Police were said to be skeptical from the start about the claims of jihadist involvement, but with France on edge a month on from the coordinated attacks by IS that killed 130 people in Paris, the investigation was immediately taken over by anti-terrorism prosecutors. The Islamic State's French-language magazine Dar-al-Islam called in its November edition for its followers to kill teachers in the French education system, describing them as "enemies of Allah."

What About Iran's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)?
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/December 15/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7056/iran-jcpoa-violations
The self-appointed P5+1, elected by no one but themselves, should be embarrassed to find that they have made a deal with no one but themselves.
The media's emphasis on the JCPOA has sadly neglected any in-depth coverage of Iran's own comprehensive plan of action, which seems to consist of developing nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and related systems to deliver them.
The IAEA cannot even confirm with certainty that Iran does not already possess a nuclear bomb, and yet is not expected to challenge Tehran's assertion that it ceased nuclear weapons development more than a decade ago.
Although the U.S. also cannot be certain of Iran's intentions, it would be advisable to assume that Iran means what it says: "Death to America" and "Death to Israel."
Iran is cheating already -- or is it? Iran has not signed anything, so presumably it cannot be cheating on something it never agreed to – as predicted on these pages half a year ago. The self-appointed P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), elected by no one but themselves, should be embarrassed to find that they have made a deal with no one but themselves.
The lavishly touted and lavishly dangerous "Iran Deal" not only paves the way for Iran to have nuclear weapons, as it was planning, anyway; it also rewards Iran's repeated violations of the Non-Proliferation Treaty -- which it did sign -- with up to $150 billion. With a punishment like that, we should all start violating commitments.
Iran's recent missile tests have, been undermining the rationale of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the P5+1 signed with itself. If Iran is concerned that its missile tests might have violated multiple UN Resolutions, a paltry detail such as that clearly has not bothered anyone before, so why should it bother anyone now?
The media's emphasis on the JCPOA has sadly neglected any in-depth coverage of Iran's own comprehensive plan of action, which seems to consist of developing nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and related systems to deliver them.
While Western diplomats were congratulating themselves on their JCPOA arrangement, Iran sent a "slap-in-the-face" signal to the Free World by launching an Emad ["Pillar"] ballistic missile on October 10. On December 8, State Department spokesperson John Kirby indirectly acknowledged the launch of a second ballistic missile, fired on November 21. Kirby was quick to point out that test was not a violation of the JCPOA.
The launches are violations, however, of UN Security Council Resolution #2231, which bans ballistic missile tests by Iran. Although these tests do not defy the letter of the JCPOA, they do defy the spirit of it. Even though the initial missile test was denounced by the U.S. and allied UN representatives, no action has so far been taken against Iran. The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, did condemn the October test and probably will also condemn the second test. But if this is outrage, that may be the extent of it.
What seems clear is that Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls the ballistic missile program, is attempting to goad the West into additional punitive action against the Islamic Republic. Such response would serve to strengthen the hardline opposition to the JCPOA in Iran. Further, if the United States does nothing but issue condemnatory rhetoric, it will be interpreted by the regime as additional confirmation that the U.S. desires a nuclear agreement at virtually any cost.
The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), after its investigation into the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of Iran's past nuclear weapons development activities, was forced, thanks to Tehran's lack of cooperation and transparency to deliver an inconclusive initial report on December 2[1].
The Iranian regime's officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi, have demanded the immediate lifting of the 12 UN Resolutions against Iran when the IAEA Board of Governors votes on the final PMD report on December 15.
The IAEA cannot therefore confirm with certainty that Iran does not already possess a nuclear bomb, or whether or not Tehran is presumably still pursuing one. The IAEA Board of Governors is, nevertheless, not expected to challenge Tehran's assertion that it ceased any such activities more than a decade ago.
Iran currently has several types of ballistic missiles in varying stages of development. The range of these missiles extends from the regional to the intercontinental -- with a version of one missile capable of reaching the continental United States. The most touted operational system is the Shahab ("Meteor") program, with several follow-on versions. The Shahab system has benefited by seemingly close cooperation with North Korea's ballistic missile program, Russian nuclear weapons engineers who were unemployed after the Soviet Union imploded, and China's direct and indirect technical assistance.
The principal threat to regional states, particularly to Israel, is that one does not know what one does not know -- in this instance, the stage of Iran's nuclear weapons programs.
Action by the U.S. Congress to inquire why the public disclosure of Iranian ballistic missile tests is being disseminated in dribs and drabs is long overdue, especially as America's technical intelligence collection methods provide immediate and certain knowledge of such tests.
Although the U.S. also cannot be certain of Iran's intentions, it would be advisable to assume that Iran means what it says: "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." If one assumes that these statements, made by a regime that stones women to death, are not mere propaganda, but ideological commitments, the time to demonstrate the Free World's resolve by way of strategic military exercises on Iran's borders is long overdue.
**Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve, where he was a Military Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Israel.
[1] Initial PMD Report summary observations are that Iran had a coordinated program to develop a nuclear explosive device up through 2003 but the program appears not to have advanced beyond scientific testing which did permit Iran to acquire certain competencies and capabilities. However, some aspects of the program continued until 2009.
© 2015 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

How Iran will choose its next supreme leader
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
The election for the Assembly of Experts, a body of 86 Islamic theologians who are tasked with electing the supreme leader of Iran, rarely receives the attention and turnout of presidential elections. However, given their eight-year term limits and the current supreme leader’s age, the new body elected February 2016 may ultimately decide the most significant position within the Islamic Republic of Iran. Most Iranian politicians rarely discuss who will take over for the still relatively healthy and highly active 76-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after his passing. Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a member of the current Assembly of Experts and also a candidate in the upcoming elections, broke this trend by announcing that the assembly has formed a committee to review the future supreme leader. In an interview with Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA), Rafsanjani said, “When it is decided that the supreme leader will be changed, or not be here and for someone else to come, once again a great task must be undertaken.” Rafsanjani perhaps played the single most important role in pushing for Khamenei’s election as supreme leader in 1989 by arguing that former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was in favor of his candidacy. Rafsanjani continued, “Of course, they are preparing and researching and have put together a group who are reviewing individuals so that those who have the qualifications, if later there is an event, they could put them forward for a vote. This is the main work of the [Assembly of] Experts.”
This isn’t the first time that Rafsanjani, who is also the head of the Expediency Council, has discussed the fate of the supreme leader position after Khamenei. In February, Rafsanjani said that if an appropriate individual was not found to take over as supreme leader, the Assembly of Experts may appoint a leadership council. During the ILNA interview, Rafsanjani said that according to the constitution before it was amended, after Khomeini’s passing, the Assembly of Experts had originally wanted to create a leadership council and Khamenei was one of three individuals on the council. Though he added that Khomeini himself had verbally spoken out against a council. Rafsanjani also created a stir talking about the supervisory roles of the Assembly of Experts over the supreme leader and the institutions that operate under him. While Rafsanjani said that a special commission of the Assembly of Experts compiles reports to supervise these institutions, he believes that more could be done. Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, the head of the judiciary, without mentioning Rafsanjani’s name, criticized the media’s publication of “baseless talk about the Assembly of Experts supervising the supreme leader and the institutions that operate under him.” He added that some individuals are presenting their “hopes and expectations” and trying to connect it to the constitution.Larijani said that the Assembly of Experts only has the responsibility to decide if an individual has the correct criteria to be the supreme leader or not, and the issue of supervision is an entirely different category. Rafsanjani certainly has a knack for discussing controversial topics and creating a stir ahead of elections in which he hopes that he and his allies will come to dominate. High election turnouts in Iran have typically favored Reformists and moderates. Regardless of the makeup of the next Assembly of Experts, it is likely that a number of powerful institutions and individuals in Iran will wield considerable influence over the assembly’s decision-making process.

Khamenei's strategy puts US 'Trojan horse' out to pasture
Ali Hashem/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
When Iran and the six world powers announced July 14 they had reached a nuclear agreement, those advocating for better relations between the United States and Iran were sure that further steps were imminent — steps that might even have paved the way in the near future for an American ambassador in Iran.With news that the “Death to America” graffiti had been removed from the walls of the former US Embassy in Tehran, the “new era” of relations was the topic of discussion among both supporters and opponents of the nuclear deal, both inside and outside Iran. It was as if the world was changing without any resistance. Yet, as it has turned out, that possibility was too good to be true. Before the deal and amid its announcement in Vienna, the man who spoke the least was Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He drew his red lines ahead of the negotiations and entered a silent mode until everything was over. The cleric even kept his distance after the deal. Indeed, though he gave several speeches in the ensuing months, he never offered a clear stance on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) until Oct. 21, when he endorsed the deal, cautiously saying that its implementation should be "tightly controlled and monitored" because of its "ambiguities." He said a lack of tight control "could bring significant damage for the present and the future of the country." Ayatollah Khamenei’s main concern was not the deal itself, but its implications for the country, specifically regarding relations with the United States — the country regarded by Tehran hard-liners as the main enemy of the Islamic Revolution and its values, the “Great Satan” that bears responsibility for all the evil in the world. In Iran, there is a quiet but ongoing and clear struggle between the executive branch and the ideologues; this isn’t a secret. Yet, the struggle has never been over the ends but rather the means, and so the confrontations haven't seriously affected the country's stability. The executive branch wants to serve the Islamic Republic’s causes with delicate tools, while the ideologues believe nothing is as efficient as radical steps. For the latter, it’s either black or white, with no room for gray.
The ideologues, armed with the blessing of Ayatollah Khamenei, were seriously concerned that any American influence would affect the revolutionary zeal inside the country. This fear prompted those with concerns to join forces and look for ways to confront the threat. Some took to the streets of Tehran and gathered for days in front of the parliament building while lawmakers were discussing the JCPOA, protesting what they called "the American Trojan horse to infiltrate Iran.” On the other hand, right-wing parliamentarians grilled the chief nuclear negotiator, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and his team even during the session when parliament ultimately approved the JCPOA. This marked the beginning of the pre-emptive assault on any possible thoughts about normalizing ties with the United States.
Ayatollah Khamenei has made it clear on several occasions that there will be no further talks with the United States regarding any other issues. He blamed "careless or simple-minded people who do not understand the facts” for Iran’s “problems.” He said that such people, presumably those advocating for relations with the United States, are a small minority. Indeed, Ayatollah Khamenei waited until the US Senate was no longer able to stop the JCPOA and then clearly outlined what he thought about the deal's possible implications. It was obvious that he wanted the benefits, the meat of the deal, and waited until it seemed safe to throw out the bones, burying any hopes for improved relations. And he did so at the most opportune time for the Iranians, as serious concerns about the Islamic State were growing within Iranian society, and anti-Iranian rhetoric was spreading in the region, mainly in countries seen as close US allies.
The ideologues in Iran succeeded in restricting the path of the nuclear deal without affecting public opinion. In the month before the JCPOA was struck, any attempt to scuttle the deal or display dismay over Iranian-US engagement during the negotiations could have caused serious problems in Iran. People were hoping the negotiations would result in sanctions being lifted; therefore, it seemed unwise to cause waves, especially since the problem wasn’t with the deal itself but rather its implications. Divisions within Iran over such an issue could have led to serious rifts, maybe similar to those that appeared amid the disputed 2009 presidential election. Now that the country is about to benefit from the deal and take part in the reshaping of the new map of the region, it is interesting to study the role each wing of Iranian politics played to help reach the JCPOA without heavy costs. Many give credit to two charismatic people who share the admiration of the Iranian public yet who might have no chemistry between them: Zarif on one side, and Quds Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani on the other. Zarif and Soleimani are two contradictory characters, given their tactics. But Soleimani helped Zarif in the nuclear negotiations by highlighting Iran’s strength on the ground, while Iran’s chief diplomat presented the major general with a deal that gave Tehran a place in the talks over Syria in Vienna, which is, in effect, international recognition of the Islamic Republic’s role in the region. The different political wings in Iran might seem conflicting, yet the opposite colors give contrast to a complex rug.

Will Syria become Russia's Vietnam?
Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
Russia's newest surprise from its bag of tricks in Syria has come from deep in the water: It's the Rostov-on-Don submarine that, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, has begun to cruise the eastern Mediterranean Sea along the coasts of Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The submarine is almost undetectable, armed with a large number of cruise missiles and regarded as a sophisticated, almost invisible intelligence-gathering vehicle. The Rostov-on-Don has already fired cruise missiles toward Islamic State targets in Syria, but it is the submarine's other capabilities that are causing far greater concern to other players in the region, such as Israel. It is still unclear what the ratcheting up of the combined efforts of Russia and Iran will achieve on the Syrian battlefield. A Dec. 10 Bloomberg News article stated that the Iranians have begun withdrawing their forces from Syria after heavy losses there, including the wounding of Gen. Qasem Soleimani. The source of the news tidbit was, evidently, American intelligence that discovered convoys of Iranian fighters returning to the land of the ayatollahs, their tails between their legs. This week, Israeli intelligence sources denied this information. “We are not convinced that this points to desertion of the battleground,” one source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “There is movement of Revolutionary Guard soldiers within Syria, and it is actually unclear whether they are leaving or not. Perhaps it is redeployment. It is too early to say that Iran is giving up on Syria, though. In light of their meager results so far, anything is possible.”
In October, a record number of 7,000 elite Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps soldiers fought together with Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against the rebels in Syria. They were recently joined by the Russians. This coalition set far-reaching goals for itself: stabilization of Assad’s regime, ensuring his continued rule and enlarging the regions he controls by retaking a number of key cities, including Idlib. These goals were not achieved. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe (Bogie) Ya’alon, in an address to the Saban Forum at the beginning of December, said that this campaign has failed so far. According to Ya’alon, the reasons for this failure are the “incompetence of the Syrian army and the lack of determination of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.”Israel is convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not face a jaunty walk in the Syrian park, and that his Syrian adventure may morph into a contemporary version of Afghanistan, where so much Soviet blood was shed that the country was forced to slink away. A very highly placed Israeli officer told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity only a short time after the start of Russia’s involvement in Syria that “Syria can become Russia’s Vietnam.”
One way or another, the worry level is rising in Israel’s security circles and decision-making echelons in light of the continued concentration of Russian resources on the northern front. This reality could possibly continue to restrict the Israel Defense Forces' control and freedom of action in those regions.
“The new submarine Putin brought here greatly upgrades Russian intelligence-gathering capabilities against Israel as well,” said a senior military Israeli source who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. Meanwhile, a diplomatic source who also asked that his name not be divulged told Al-Monitor a week ago, “The Russian S-400 batteries completely expose the entire territory of the State of Israel to the Russians. All Israeli combat planes taking off, from the Uvda air base in the Negev to the military airports in Israel’s north, are immediately picked up by the Russian radar system. This system has additional capabilities as well. We are less inclined to worry over possible military friction with the Russians, who do not constitute a direct military threat to Israel. Instead, we are more concerned that the Russians will transfer sensitive intelligence that they gather to agents that are hostile to Israel.”
Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in a recent press briefing, “It is impossible to defeat the Islamic State from the air; you need strong ground forces to accomplish that.” This fact has been internalized by the West as well, though the United States remains firm in its policy of not sending significant forces into Syria, with the exception of special low-profile units taking action against IS.
“We have never seen anything like this before,” a senior Western military source admitted to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity at the beginning of this month. “We are talking about 40,000 fighters from 100 countries who are flowing to the romantic magnet called the ‘Islamic Caliphate.’ Yet no one really knows the reasons behind this phenomenon, and what causes those young fighters to leave their rather comfortable Western lives behind them.” Almost all the experts hold that in order to fight this phenomenon, its keystone must be quashed upfront: the caliphate that IS established on large tracts of Iraq and Syria.
The series of tremendous IS successes recently, including the terror attack in Paris on Nov. 13 and the downing of the Russian plane over the Sinai Peninsula on Oct. 31, shook up the coalition and created the current sense of emergency. The Russians have greatly intensified their airstrikes against IS. Until its plane was downed, only 5% of Russia’s aerial strikes in Syria were directed against IS. But subsequently, 30% of the attacks are directed against IS, according to American intelligence, and this figure is rising. The problem is that air attacks will not bring about the hoped-for results.
“In order to defeat IS, you need to get their caliphate out of their hands," said a high-level US source on condition of anonymity. "You need to win them on the ground. That is the only thing that will put an end to the romanticization that attracts thousands of youths to that place. The difference between IS and al-Qaeda is that IS established an Islamic state, it has a territorial base with a capital city, an economy, ostensibly an Islamic law and order system. The dream was realized and now everyone is streaming there to get in on the act. This dream is becoming the nightmare of the free world, and there is no doubt that it must be stopped.”
Meanwhile, the United States has no clear answer regarding how and when it will be halted. The increasing involvement of Russia and Iran, together with a massive Hezbollah presence, is not helping. Instead, they are only increasing the regional chaos. The efforts invested in the Vienna peace talks, in an attempt to achieve a diplomatic solution, are advancing but not at an adequate pace. The global coalition against IS is investing more energy in internecine conflict than in its main goal. Meanwhile, Israel is taking care to wish good luck to all the warring elements while keeping an increasingly worried eye on the Russian presence in the Mediterranean Sea and in Israel’s northern airspace. Israel’s position remains unchanged: that IS endangers Israel far less than the Shiite axis from Tehran to Beirut. Why is this so? A highly placed Israeli intelligence source put it this way on condition of anonymity: “Both Iran and IS want to destroy Israel, but only Iran is capable of doing so. Iran is capable of dropping 100 tons of explosives on Israeli cities all by itself, and a similar quantity via Hezbollah. The Islamic State, by contrast, is Kalashnikov rifles on pickup trucks.”

How solar energy is sparking new business in Egypt
Eman El-Sherbiny/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
CAIRO — Egypt hopes renewable power will cut its reliance on fossil fuel imports and solve some of its energy and economic problems. The entrepreneurial co-founders of a solar startup company want to help. The country wants to get 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2022, according to the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy. Al-Monitor sat down with the co-founders of SolarizEgypt, a company that designs, installs and commissions photovoltaic solar power systems, to learn about the firm and the industry. Yaseen Abdel-Ghaffar is managing director of the Cairo business, while Rana Alaa is technical director. Solar energy is evolving into a malleable new technology that accommodates a variety of needs, Abdel-Ghaffar explained. Solar cells concentrate light to generate heat. There are two kinds of photovoltaic cell systems: grid-connected and off-grid. Under the former type, users install solar cells that are connected to the government’s power grid. The cells provide consumers with energy, but when they need more power, or at night, they can pull energy from the national power grid, Abdel-Ghaffar said. “The whole idea is that it provides cost savings as long as there is sun,” he added.
Off-grid systems use a battery to store energy during the day and provide energy when sunlight is not available. Grid-connected systems are more expensive to install. However, while off-grid systems are cheaper initially, they require batteries that are costly and must be replaced regularly.
SolarizEgypt’s young entrepreneurs, both graduates of the American University in Cairo, said they chose a solar energy startup because Egypt has been on an economic and political roller coaster. Both partners pursued technical subjects in their graduate studies and both worked in the oil and gas sector. They have always been passionate about the environment, and Alaa got her master’s degree in environmental engineering.
Solar energy was a no-brainer to them: Egypt has a lot of sun and a lot of power outages, so why not? “We hated seeing Egypt’s resources go to waste and realized that if there was anything to be done, we needed to do it now, ourselves,” Abdel-Ghaffar said. “We really believe in the business model and technology.”When asked what challenges the business has faced so far, he cited government bureaucracy. “We were basically waiting for the government to let us do our job.”Also, because SolarizEgypt must import panels and materials from abroad, it has been difficult to set a budget. And it can be hard to sell the concept of solar power to the public without having a working prototype, Abdel-Ghaffar said. “We come up with a lot of proposals with a hit rate of 1-2%, but we spend most of our time spreading awareness of the topic rather than closing deals because people are still reluctant to change,” Alaa added.
Al-Monitor asked why the government would encourage people to install solar panels, knowing it would lose customers.
Alaa explained, “It costs the government more money to supply your electricity because it is heavily subsidized. That is why there is a feed-in tariff incentive program in place, to push people to get acquainted with the idea of solar.” The feed-in tariff provides renewable energy producers with long-term contracts at guaranteed prices as an incentive to kick-start such projects. Also, investors know electricity consumption is bound to rise as the population increases and development continues — especially since 90% of Egypt’s energy currently comes from fossil fuels. SolarizEgypt has handled 18 business-to-consumer projects so far and is getting requests for a lot more, the partners said. In such cases, consumers can put their idle rooftops to use providing solar energy for their own homes while also contributing kilowatt-hours to the grid. They are selling electricity to the government, but the government still saves money in the exchange. The real cost of a kilowatt-hour is around 20 cents when all subsidies are removed from the equation. If the government pays solar-panel consumers 12 cents per kilowatt-hour, for example, it saves a substantial amount. And the process helps the government keep up with demand.
Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy spokesman Mohamed Soliman al-Yamany told Al-Monitor, “Our main goal is to eliminate all power outages. Bearing in mind energy subsidies are to be lifted, we are working toward managing our power resources without negatively impacting Egyptian citizens.”
Yamany reaffirmed the ministry’s commitment to implement clean and renewable energy, highlighting the late-November launch of a 270 million euro ($297 million) wind turbine farm funded by KfW Development Bank, the European Commission, the German government and the European Investment Bank.
Until now, SolarizEgypt has successfully handled relatively small projects. Larger projects present a challenge because of Egypt’s cap on the amount of US dollars that can be deposited in its banks. “Some of our customers are willing to pay us in US dollars and receive their revenues in the same currency, but since I cannot deposit more than $50,000 per month, it seems like a handicap,” Abdel-Ghaffar said. In 2012, Egypt’s oil bill reached $16 billion. Abdel-Ghaffar said the country is using most of its natural gas to supply electricity. Solar power eventually would fill almost half of that need for natural gas, he said.
Otherwise, “It’s like instead of burning firewood to get warm, you’re burning your money.”

Why the US is part of Middle East problem, not the solution
Shlomi Eldar/Al-Monitor/December 15/15
In early November, Arab Knesset member Ayman Odeh, the chairman of the Joint List, received a surprising email from Foreign Policy magazine: He had been selected as one of its 100 Leading Global Thinkers for 2015. Yet, Odeh could not pop the champagne cork right away, as he was asked to keep his selection under wraps until the official announcement was made in early December. Unfamiliar to most of the Israeli public until about a year ago, he suddenly found himself rubbing elbows with Pope Francis, Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Sweden’s Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom, the negotiators of the Iran nuclear deal and other world leaders and thinkers.
The announcement indicates that Odeh was chosen for the prestigious list thanks to his ability to unite Israel’s Arabs. “Odeh yoked diverse leaders — Islamists, secular feminists, socialists — with a forthright argument that Arabs deserve the same rights as Jewish citizens,” it read.
Odeh called his father, a construction worker, and whispered the news into his ear so that none of his associates or aides could eavesdrop. He later drove home to tell his wife the happy news. He then had to hold his tongue for nearly a month until the magazine made the official announcement.
In early December, Odeh went on a US tour to voice his own opinions and to serve as a mouthpiece for Arab Israelis and their predicaments. According to him, the decision-makers of the world’s largest power are hardly familiar with the population that makes up 20% of Israel’s citizens.
Odeh returned to Israel earlier this week with at least one operative goal. He wants to set up an active lobby of Arab Israelis living in the United States who attended American universities and speak English. What he would like is for them to do everything they can to raise public awareness in the United States concerning the issue of Arab Israelis.
In an interview with Al-Monitor, Odeh relates that during his tours in Washington, Philadelphia and New York and after addressing various crowds and more than 20 research institutions, he has arrived at the conclusion that not only is the American establishment not part of the solution, it is in fact one of the main obstacles to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“These are perhaps harsh words,” Odeh tells Al-Monitor, “but it is indeed the truth. US foreign policy is predicated on interests and not on morality. They shouldn’t be selling this democracy fiction to us. Americans are best friends with tyrants and primitive leaders in the Persian Gulf — those who prevent women from driving. But all of a sudden, if there’s one Arab leader they don’t like, they take down the flag of democracy, come riding roughshod with large forces, allowing fundamentalist movements to take control over everything. We’ve seen this in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, too.”
Touching on the American conduct concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Odeh observed, “Saying that the United States has supposedly bailed out on the conflict — and that we saw this after the meeting between [President Barack] Obama and [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu — is simply untrue. It hasn’t given up. It keeps paying billions for what is called 'security' and 'Israel’s army.' All those statements about the administration wanting a two-state solution but not Netanyahu are an outright lie. The United States is pleased with what’s going on in the Middle East, selling weapons to Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is the only one that maintains ties with everyone, but the others don’t maintain any ties with each other. It stands to gain by not having peace in the Middle East, which is why I directly point a finger at the United States for being the main stumbling block to peace in the region. If the US really wants the two-state, it can force the Israeli government to act, but it doesn’t do so on purpose. When it comes to the issue of peace, it only pays lip service.”
The rest of the interview follows:
Al-Monitor: If that’s your opinion of the United States, what were you looking for there?
Odeh: You know where I stand in regard to Netanyahu’s government, so what am I doing in the Knesset? I’m a person who has an opinion and wants to make a change, and I also know it can’t be done by a knockout. There are over 300 million people in America. There are African-American movements from which I have learned and still do. I’m learning from the American civil rights movement and want to knit ties with it. One of the things I’m trying to do is to tell them that there are relations between the official United States and the official Israel. But it is high time, for the first time in history, that ties were fostered between the progressive forces in both countries, for example between the Arabs and the blacks and between democratic forces in both Israel and the US. This is what I’d like to advance.
Al-Monitor: The US also has a presidential candidate, Donald Trump, who has called on banning the entry of Muslims to the US; how do you feel about that?
Odeh: An entire public counting over 1.5 billion people is being demonized, and that’s part of the collision between civilizations. So I hope he’ll lose.
Al-Monitor: Had Trump invited you to meet with him, maybe to tone down the criticism about his stand on Muslims and after canceling his trip to Israel, would you have accepted it?
Odeh: No, I wouldn’t. In principle, I’m willing to meet with almost everyone. But in every meeting I need to ask myself who would stand to gain and who wouldn’t. I don’t want people using me.
Al-Monitor: It’s possible that Trump will become the next president. Have you taken that into account?
Odeh: As broken down as American politics is, it still hasn’t gone that far south for a person like him to be elected president.
Al-Monitor: During your US tour, you refused to enter the building of the Jewish Agency in New York when you arrived there to address the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. Why?
Odeh: You know how much I want to meet with people. I was told "the Conference of Presidents" and I replied, "Sure thing." Someone whispered in my ears that they are very right wing. I said, "Bring them on." I don’t need to preach to the converted. I want to talk with them. I thought I was going to address them in their offices. Suddenly at the entrance I see signs for Aliyah, the Jewish Agency and the Zionist Congress. So I asked, "Where am I?"
I was informed that that was a Jewish Agency building, so I asked if they could find another venue. Then somebody came over and in very blunt language said to me, “You don’t want to talk to us; you’re against us.” That was Malcolm Hoenlein, their president. I said, “I want to meet you, but please understand me. I won’t go in there.”
Al-Monitor: What do you have against the Jewish Agency?
Odeh: Israel has built over 700 Jewish communities and zero Arab ones. The Jewish Agency played a big role in establishing the Jewish communities, and part of it came at the expense of our lands. It’s not just the Nakba and not just the discrimination, but even today, in connection with the unrecognized communities. It’s the Jewish Agency that gives trouble to the young people there, together with the Jewish National Fund, which is the one that expelled the Arabs from their lands and continues to do so. So with all due respect, let me say that I can’t address you, not here at the Jewish Agency offices.
Al-Monitor: Coming back to Israel, you evoked the idea of setting up an active lobby of Arab Israelis living in the United States in order to raise public awareness there concerning the issue of Arab Israelis. Why is such a lobby necessary?
Odeh: As I have said before, and let me reiterate this, the United States isn’t the solution — it’s the problem. To date, there is no one unified group of Arab Israelis in the United States holding events and talking to the public in general as well as to people who carry influence and trendsetters. This is my primary goal at the moment, to set up such a body in America through which I can influence American public opinion.

The Saudi anti-terror coalition could be a game changer
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Al Arabiya/December 15/15
“The proof is in the pudding.”
--14th century proverb
Part of the problem with modern political risk analysis is the difficulty in separating the portentous from the pretentious, the significant from the marketing dross that so often masquerades as foreign policy initiatives. On any given day, there a literally hundreds of press releases as to new, revolutionary, foreign policy strategies being unfurled that are bound (so their authors insist) to change the course of history. Most, of course, amount to less than nothing; but the analytical ‘noise’ in the modern world is truly deafening. It takes an especially skilled analyst to ignore the din, focusing on what really matters. And while the jury is surely still out, yesterday’s announcement by Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, of a new Saudi-inspired 34 country Islamic coalition designed to fight terrorism, could truly amount to that rarest of things: a foreign policy initiative that fundamentally matters.
Calling the American bluff
As the war in Syria drearily continues, with U.S. air strikes increasing against ISIS to a new high in November, Washington has grown increasingly and publicly exasperated at the lack of support from its allies in the anti-ISIS coalition. Specifically, the U.S. has made frequent and urgent calls for the Gulf Arab states to do more against ISIS. The key, overriding point is whether the Islamic coalition will attack ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq, how often, and to what effect. This is due to issues relating to technical military sophistication, as well as to the crucial matter of local political legitimacy. Both the Saudi and Emirati air forces are modern, powerful and capable of truly helping to carry the military load of increased air strikes directed against Raqqa. Perhaps even more importantly, the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s overt, and strong opposition to ISIS decisively makes a lie of the group’s false (but powerful) claim to be the champion of the Sunni worldview. American frustration has centred on the fact that while almost every major state in the Middle East is genuinely against ISIS, getting rid of it in its Syrian-Iraqi heartland has not been the priority of many. While the U.S.-backed Kurds, and Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq have taken the fight to ISIS, there had been a crucial lack of effective Sunni boots on the ground. Instead, the Egyptians have been fretting about the failed state that Libya has become, and the rise of the local ISIS chapter there, as well as another manifestation of the group in the Sinai. Turkey has been more intent on facing down the Kurds than taking the war to ISIS. Saudi Arabia, in American eyes, has been seen as worrying about the Iranian-inspired Houthi rebellion on its southern doorstep, rather than in aiding America in Syria and Iraq. But with a ceasefire set to take hold in Yemen, as U.N.-sponsored peace talks commence, there has been increasing hope in Washington that the pivotal Saudis are set to re-focus their efforts. Raqqa may well not have helped matters from their point of view in their strategically baffling desire to take on all their many enemies at once; while the Arab world may have been ambiguous in its efforts to fight ISIS, the group has been crystal clear in its desire to attack Gulf states, initiating a series of attacks on Shiite mosques in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in an effort to foment Sunni-Shiite tensions, as well as attacking security forces in both states as well. Given this sub-text, the U.S. should be increasingly hopeful that the just-announced Islamic coalition against terrorism marks the crowning of this new strategic shift it has so hoped for.
Certainly, King Salman could not have been rhetorically clearer about ISIS, urging further, significant efforts in November to “eradicate this dangerous scourge and rid of the world of its evils.” The new 34-state Islamic coalition against terrorism puts operational heft behind these stirring words. Including pivotal predominantly Sunni states Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, Malaysia, and Pakistan, the new coalition has both the diplomatic and strategic heft to potentially matter a great deal. Crucially, this vast alliance possesses the vital elixir of political credibility for Sunnis in eastern Syria and central and western Iraq, as it cannot be accused — as the U.S. so easily can — of being a malign, outside influence impervious to local political goals and aspirations. Mohammed bin Salman put his finger on this vital point, saying that the new group had political ‘legitimacy’, without which ISIS cannot be ultimately defeated.
If the group has the heft to tip the strategic scales against ISIS, it also seems poised to serve a vital operational function. The Saudi Defense Minister says the new alliance will “coordinate efforts to fight terrorism in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Afghanistan,| exactly what is necessary to maximise its impact.
The proof is in the pudding
While it is understandable that there have been few specific operational details as to how the new alliance will proceed, without them we are all left guessing as to how much political capital the individual member states of the alliance are prepared to put behind this new coalition to defeat ISIS.
The key, overriding point is whether the Islamic coalition will attack ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq, how often, and to what effect. This is the proof in the pudding as to whether the just-announced Islamic coalition is the best news to hit the region in a long time; it shouldn’t be allowed to be merely another press release.

ISIS is also a Saudi problem
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/December 15/15
Those who do not read what leaders of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) write, and those who do not watch the group’s videos, may not realize that it has many enemies, foremost among them Saudi Arabia. ISIS has a long list of rivals worldwide, such as the United States and most recently Russia, as well as European governments, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan. ISIS is also fighting both the Syrian regime and the opposition. For two years now, the organization has actively spread fierce propaganda against Saudi Arabia and its monarchy, urging people to rebel against it. There are many Saudi fighters in ISIS’s ranks, and the government worries that they may one day sneak back into the country from Iraq and Syria to implement ISIS’s project.
Similarities with Al-Nusra Front
The same applies to the terrorist Al-Nusra Front, which presents itself as an opposition group that is only hostile to the Syrian regime. It is an extension of Al-Qaeda, and has previously professed loyalty to it. Although it fights ISIS, their aims are similar. The organization has actively spread fierce propaganda against Saudi Arabia and its monarchy, urging people to rebel against it Al-Nusra Front fighters have previously threatened Saudi Arabia. This is why we doubt the aims of regional governments that support it, because its biggest project is to attack Saudi Arabia, which for terrorists represents the promised land and the path toward legitimacy. Terrorists consider Syria a base to gather, train and launch operations, as they did previously with Afghanistan. Initially, Al-Nusra Front and ISIS deceived people with the idea that they were formed to fight unjust sectarian regimes in Iraq and Syria, thus exploiting people’s grievances. Al-Qaeda did the same in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, crimes committed in Syria and Iraq by Al-Nusra Front and ISIS have quickly turned Arab and Muslim public opinion against them, unlike Al-Qaeda, which enjoyed media and religious propaganda in its defense. Those who sympathize with Al-Nusra Front or ISIS do not dare express that sympathy in Saudi Arabia. In some cases, worshippers have driven out preachers who dared commend ISIS. People can now distinguish between nationalist groups that rebel against injustice, and terrorist groups that facilitate chaos. ISIS in Iraq has worn several masks. It claimed to be formed from tribal groups, then it portrayed itself as aligned with Baathists, and later claimed it was a mixed army under an-Naqshbandiyyah leadership. ISIS is the biggest, most dangerous power in Iraq - many people became aware of this after it occupied Mosul and a number of cities in Anbar province. Today, it not only threatens Baghdad, but Saudi Arabia’s borders.

The Riyadh conference and an ambiguous Kerry
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/December 15/15
The Syrian opposition conference held in Riyadh was a success, and confirmed a complete Saudi-Syrian partnership for a free, civil and pluralistic Syria that is worth fighting for, whether through peaceful or forcible means. It was agreed that the Supreme Commission for Negotiations, which will lead opposition diplomacy in New York next month, will be based in Riyadh. If diplomacy does not resolve the conflict, the alternative is the continuation of the Saudi-backed revolution and armed action, according to Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. The conference was successful because it brought together Syrians who have a vision and a wish for their country regardless of their affiliations: Islamists, nationalists, Kurds, Christians and others. They know these wishes will not be fulfilled under the oppressive, sectarian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, or in a chaotic or divided Syria, or under the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). So they focused on getting rid of Assad, unifying Syria and establishing a civil state. Then they discussed the transitional phase, and whether Assad would be part of it.
Saudi support
However, not all world leaders are ready to provide the kind of support that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef delivered to the representatives of armed factions whom he met before the conference opening ceremony. “We will remain at your side until the aspirations of the heroic Syrian people are achieved, whatever it costs us,” he said. He reaffirmed that Riyadh rejected any role for Assad in a temporary or permanent formula leading to a solution. Russia and Iran will most probably disrupt negotiations over a transitional government that, despite Kerry’s ambiguous statement, only means the beginning of the end for Assad’s regime
Presumed allies such as the United States are becoming more convinced that Assad is the lesser evil compared to ISIS. Last week, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said: “It is not clear yet whether... Assad must first leave to ensure the presence of a collaboration between the armed opposition and the Syrian army to fight ISIS.”Interpreting and restructuring the above constitutes a challenge that Riyadh and the Syrians will face in January’s negotiations, which are supposed to address the transitional phase. It is easier said than done. Saudi Arabia wants to deplete the possibility of a peaceful solution as it is fully aware that Russian interference has changed the rules of the game, and that ISIS has changed the West’s priorities after the Paris attacks. Unifying opposition forces with the regime army, which is steeped in sectarianism and the blood of the Syrian people, is impossible, and will be rejected by the armed factions that attended the Riyadh conference. Ahrar al-Sham - an organization that does not hide its salafist and jihadi tendencies, or its aspirations for Syria to become an Islamic state - resumed its demands: liberate the country from the “Russian-Iranian occupation and sectarian militias,” overthrow the regime and subject its members to a fair trial, dismantle its security bodies, reject sectarian and political quotas, preserve the Islamic identity of the people, and give them the right of self-determination in view of this identity. Most Syrians will favor such demands. Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam constitute the mainstay of the Syrian revolution, so the world should listen to these two factions, especially after the momentum they acquired at the conference. Classifying them as terrorist groups is absurd.
Obstructionism
Russia and Iran will most probably disrupt negotiations over a transitional government that, despite Kerry’s ambiguous statement, only means the beginning of the end for Assad’s regime. They know that once the regime delegate signs an agreement that it must give up its monopoly on power and engage the revolutionaries in a transitional administration that would end in free elections under international supervision, the regime’s collapse will begin. Then, only the Iranians and Russians will remain to fight in the name of the Syrian Arab Republic. So why organize this conference and these negotiations? The good news is that the Syrian people are resisting. This encourages the Saudi people to resist too, and to support them no matter what the cost.

The significance of the Riyadh talks on Syria
Sharif Nashashibi/Al Arabiya/December 15/15
That Saudi Arabia was able to gather such a large and diverse number of Syrian opposition groups and figures for talks in Riyadh last week was no small feat given the divisions among them. Even more impressive was the outcome: a common negotiating position and vision for post-war Syria, and agreement to form a secretariat to supervise peace talks and select a negotiating team. A concluding statement called for democracy “through a pluralistic regime that represents all sectors of the Syrian people.” It would include women, and would not discriminate on religious, sectarian or ethic grounds.
While the statement expressed willingness to negotiate with the regime, it said President Bashar al-Assad would have to leave power upon the formation of a transitional government (opposition groups had previously said he would have to step down prior to negotiations). Since Assad has dashed any hope for diplomacy, the greater opposition unity achieved in Riyadh may bear fruit on the battlefield rather than the negotiating table. Delegates, probably mindful of the disastrous consequences of de-Baathification in neighbouring Iraq following the U.S. invasion, committed to preserving state institutions and restructuring the security forces. The conference has been criticized despite these achievements, or because of them. This was to be expected given its size and diversity - one of the largest Syrian opposition gatherings since the conflict began, with more than 100 delegates. It included armed and political bodies, exiled and internal opposition, and Islamist and secular factions - in stark contrast to the recent Vienna conferences, which were notable for the complete absence of Syrians.
Participation
Much of the criticism revolves around the inclusion or exclusion of certain parties. However, the difficult balancing act of organizing such a conference meant it would be impossible to please everyone - any organizer would have faced the same problems. It was a pity that the main Syrian Kurdish groups were not invited, not least because they control large parts of northern Syria, they are the largest ethnic minority in the country, and they are directly involved in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Their exclusion led some Arab delegates to stay away and hold a parallel conference in northeast Syria.
However, some participants in Riyadh made clear they would not attend if the Kurds were invited. The Syrian National Coalition (SNC), a key opposition group, said Kurdish factions were excluded because they only fight ISIS, not regime forces. This issue meant Riyadh would have lost the participation of certain delegates one way or the other. Powerful rebel group Ahrar al-Sham withdrew from the conference, though reportedly still signed the final statement. The group said the mainly Damascus-based National Coordination Body for Democratic Change - which it accuses of being closer to the regime than to the opposition - was given undue prominence. Ahrar al-Sham also claimed rebel fighters were under-represented.
However, armed groups comprise the largest bloc - 11 representatives - in the planned 34-member secretariat, while Syria’s internal, mainly Damascus-based opposition will have six representatives. The exiled political opposition will have nine, and there will be eight independents. Abu Mohamad al-Golani, head of al-Qaeda’s Syrian wing the Nusra Front, made accusations against the Riyadh conference that have no basis. His group was not invited (neither was ISIS), but he said it would not have attended anyway. “Whoever went to the conference does not have the ability to implement things on the ground,” he said, describing the talks as a “conspiracy.” However, most of the main rebel factions sent delegates. The conference’s final statement belied Golani’s claim that it aims to keep Assad in power. Some may have argued for inviting Nusra to the talks because it is one of the most effective forces against both Assad and ISIS. However, Golani’s claim that the conference “was not in the interests of the people of Syria, which is unacceptable,” means that even if it had attended, its participation would have been obstructionist. Predictably, Assad’s key ally Russia - whose warplanes are bombing some of the groups represented at the conference - rejected it entirely, but has contradicted itself in the process. The Foreign Ministry criticized it for not representing all opposition groups - as if any conference would have been able to do so - and hence not having “the right to speak on behalf of the entire Syrian opposition.”
However, referring to attendance by certain armed groups, the ministry said: “Terrorists of all stripes should be excluded from the political process in Syria.” So Moscow faults the conference for being too inclusive, and not inclusive enough.
Futile diplomacy
The talks were intended to form a common position for negotiations with the regime that are scheduled for January, as agreed upon in Vienna. However, Assad has since reiterated that “we completely refuse” to negotiate with armed groups. Asked whether he would attend the upcoming talks, he replied: “They want the Syrian government to negotiate with terrorists, something I don’t think anyone would accept in any country.”Even if the regime attends the talks they would end in failure, given remarks by Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad just days after the first Vienna conference: “We are not at all talking about what is called a transitional period. There is no alternative to the leadership of” Assad. That does not mean the Riyadh conference was pointless - the basis of its importance has simply changed. Since Assad has dashed any hope for diplomacy, the greater opposition unity achieved in Riyadh may bear fruit on the battlefield rather than the negotiating table. The need for greater cooperation, which produced a series of military successes earlier this year, is particularly necessary given Russia’s active participation in the conflict. The rebels would also receive a boost if talks on Yemen this week produce a breakthrough, allowing the Gulf states - particularly Saudi Arabia - to focus on further aiding the Syrian opposition. Assad’s intransigence is serving only to galvanize opposition resolve.

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