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Bible Quotations For Today
The very works that I am doing, testify on my behalf that the Father has sent me."
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 05/31-36: "‘If I testify about myself, my testimony is not true. There is another who testifies on my behalf, and I know that his testimony to me is true. You sent messengers to John, and he testified to the truth. Not that I accept such human testimony, but I say these things so that you may be saved. He was a burning and shining lamp, and you were willing to rejoice for a while in his light. But I have a testimony greater than John’s. The works that the Father has given me to complete, the very works that I am doing, testify on my behalf that the Father has sent me."

For Christ is the end of the law so that there may be righteousness for everyone who believes
Letter to the Romans 10/01-13: "Brothers and sisters, my heart’s desire and prayer to God for them is that they may be saved. I can testify that they have a zeal for God, but it is not enlightened. For, being ignorant of the righteousness that comes from God, and seeking to establish their own, they have not submitted to God’s righteousness. For Christ is the end of the law so that there may be righteousness for everyone who believes. Moses writes concerning the righteousness that comes from the law, that ‘the person who does these things will live by them.’ But the righteousness that comes from faith says, ‘Do not say in your heart, "Who will ascend into heaven?" ’ (that is, to bring Christ down) ‘or "Who will descend into the abyss?" ’ (that is, to bring Christ up from the dead). But what does it say? ‘The word is near you, on your lips and in your heart’ (that is, the word of faith that we proclaim); because if you confess with your lips that Jesus is Lord and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved. For one believes with the heart and so is justified, and one confesses with the mouth and so is saved. The scripture says, ‘No one who believes in him will be put to shame.’ For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved.’"

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 11-12/15
It’s 1960 forever, The election law that simply never goes away/Michael Young/Now Lebanon/December 11/15
When will Lebanese Maronite parties reach an agreement/Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/December 11/15
Palestinians' Biggest Tragedy: Failed Leadership/by Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 11/15
Saudi and Egyptian marines capture Iran-held island at Red Sea chokepoint/DEBKAfile/December 11/15
Iran’s long aim for its ballistic missiles/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/December 11/15
We are being deceived on Iran/Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/December 11/15
More veils lift as topic loses political punch in Iran/Mahmoud Pargoo/Al-Monitor/December 11/15
4 ways Russia could retaliate against Turkey/Maxim A. Suchkov/Al-Monitor/December 11/15
Are Turkey and Iran reviving a 16th century conflict/Cengiz Çandar/Al-Monitor/December 11/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 11-12/15
Gadhafi's Son Hannibal Briefly Abducted in Lebanon, Says Captors 'Loyal to al-Sadr Cause'
Al-Jubeir Denies Saudi-Iranian Agreement Reached on Lebanon
Mustaqbal Sources: Hizbullah, Geagea Knew of Franjieh Nomination before Paris Talks
Berri Not Planning on Visiting Riyadh soon as Asiri Describes him as 'Figure of Moderation'
Report: Marada Says Settlement to Elect Franjieh as President Still Stands
March 14 Holds 'Consultative Meeting' as LF Fails to Attend Talks
STL Registrar Concludes Trip to Lebanon
Dialogue Session Postponed to Dec. 21 over Berri's Sister Death
5 Syrians Held over Murder of Man whose Body was Found in Adonis Car
Adwan Says 'Ambassadors Advices' Can't Influence LF Stance
Abou Faour Says Stability at Risk if Franjieh Proposal Collapses
Qazzi Meets Geagea: New President Must Enjoy Support of Main Political Factions
It’s 1960 forever, The election law that simply never goes away
When will Lebanese Maronite parties reach an agreement.

Gadhafi's Son Hannibal Briefly Abducted in Lebanon, Says Captors 'Loyal to al-Sadr Cause'
Naharnet/December 12/15/Hannibal Gadhafi, a 40-year-old son of slain Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, appeared in a video on Friday in which he announced that he had been kidnapped in Lebanon. Both MTV and al-Jadeed television, which aired the video, said Gadhafi was abducted in Lebanon at the hands of an “armed group.” In the video, Gadhafi said his captors are "loyal to the cause of Imam Moussa al-Sadr," the founder of Lebanon's AMAL Movement who disappeared while on a trip to Libya in 1978. He said anyone who has information about al-Sadr should come forward. Gadhafi appeared to have been beaten up and had black eyes but said in the video he is "in good health, happy and relaxed."State-run National News Agency said Gadhafi was abducted Thursday in the Bekaa region and that his captors demanded "information about Imam Moussa al-Sadr and his two companions." Later on Friday, the agency said Hannibal was “handed over to the Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch after his captors left him on the Baalbek-Homs international highway near the northern Bekaa town of al-Jamaliyeh.” It said he had been abducted on Thursday “after being lured from Syria into a town near Baalbek.”Ex-MP Hassan Yaaqoub, the son of Sheikh Mohammed Yaaqoub who disappeared while accompanying al-Sadr, denied any ties to the kidnap operation. He however hoped the reported abduction would “reactivate the case” and noted that he was not “saddened” by the news. Hannibal is married to Lebanese lingerie model Aline Skaff. Skaff had first met Hannibal in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Skeikh in 2000, her brother has said in an interview with An Nahar newspaper. “They later met in France and got married in Copenhagen in 2003.” The couple has a son and a daughter. Photographs obtained by Agence France-Presse in Libya had revealed how Hannibal and his wife were living a high-flying party lifestyle during his father's iron-fisted rule. In the dozens of photographs, found on a laptop belonging to Gadhafi's son and made available by former Libyan rebels to AFP, Hannibal and Aline are shown partying in European capitals, on a private jet and on a yacht off the Egyptian coast. The undated photographs show the couple on luxurious trips to Paris, Rome and Sharm el-Sheikh. They are shown flying on a private jet, lounging in bathing suits on a luxury yacht and shopping in expensive boutiques. The lavish lifestyles of Gadhafi's family and entourage helped fuel the anger in Libya that sparked the protests that led eventually to the former strongman's ouster. Hannibal was among a group of family members -- including Gadhafi's wife Safiya, son Mohammed and daughter Aisha -- who escaped to neighboring Algeria after the fall of the Libyan capital Tripoli.

Al-Jubeir Denies Saudi-Iranian Agreement Reached on Lebanon
Naharnet/December 11/15/Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir denied that a regional agreement had been reached over ending the deadlock in Lebanon, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Friday. He told the daily that a deal between the kingdom and Iran has not been reached, contrary to what has been reported in the media. Reports had said that Jubeir and his Iranian counterpart Mohammed Javad Zarif had made the agreement during a three-hour meeting held in Vienna. Jubeir clarified to al-Joumhouria that that meeting lasted “only a few minutes.” “How could we have reached a deal in such a limited amount of time?” he asked. The two officials had met on the margins of Vienna talks that were addressing the Syrian conflict. Recent efforts to end the presidential deadlock in Lebanon have been focusing on the election of Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. His name is being proposed as part of a greater settlement that would resolve the political impasse in the country.

Mustaqbal Sources: Hizbullah, Geagea Knew of Franjieh Nomination before Paris Talks
Naharnet/December 11/15/Hizbullah and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea had been aware that al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri would discuss a possible presidential settlement with Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh prior to the famous Paris meeting between the two leaders, a report said on Thursday. “Hizbullah had prior knowledge of Franjieh's nomination and the remarks of its secretary-general about a 'package settlement' came in this context,” LBCI TV quoted Mustaqbal sources as saying. “Samir Geagea was also informed by ex-PM Hariri more than three months ago,” the sources added. Commenting on Wednesday's meeting between Franjieh and Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, the sources noted that “through the meeting it set up between Aoun and Franjieh, Hizbullah was clear that it does not want to end the presidential vacuum and that it does not currently have an interest in an Iranian-Saudi settlement.” Hizbullah has not made public statements about Franjieh's nomination but media reports said party officials have visited Aoun in recent days to reassure him that it will keep supporting his presidential nomination as long as he holds on to it. Geagea for his part has voiced veiled dismay over the Hariri-Franjieh meeting while LF officials have noted that the party cannot endorse any presidential hopeful before knowing the details of their presidential platform. The move to nominate Franjieh has also drawn reservations from Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and the Kataeb Party.

Berri Not Planning on Visiting Riyadh soon as Asiri Describes him as 'Figure of Moderation'
Naharnet/December 11/15/Speaker Nabih Berri received on Friday an invitation to visit Saudi Arabia, but he is unlikely to head to the kingdom “any time soon”, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Friday. At the moment, the speaker does not have any trips on his agenda, except two to Iran and one to Iraq.
He is scheduled to travel to Iraq at the end of December to attend the conference of the union of Islamic parliaments, revealed al-Joumhouria. Saudi Ambassador Ali Awadh Asiri, who had delivered the invitation to Berri on Thursday, told al-Mustaqbal daily Friday that the speaker “is a figure of balance and moderation” in Lebanon. He said that Berri pledged to travel to the kingdom. The visit will serve as an opportunity for the speaker to meet wit the Saudi leadership, explained the ambassador.

Report: Marada Says Settlement to Elect Franjieh as President Still Stands
Naharnet/December 11/15/The Marada Movement stressed that efforts are still underway to reach an agreement over the nomination of its chief as president, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Friday. Sources from the movement told the daily that “the settlement to elect MP Suleiman Franjieh as president still stands.” “The initiative is facing difficulties, but efforts are ongoing to overcome them,” they explained. “We are carrying out numerous contacts and meetings on all fronts,” they added. “Our main goal remains saving the republic and revitalizing political life in the country,” they stressed. Franjieh emerged in recent weeks as a potential presidential candidate in the wake of a meeting he held with Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri in Paris. His candidacy is being proposed alongside a settlement that would end the political deadlock in Lebanon. The efforts to nominate Franjieh have however been met with objections from the Christian parties of the Kataeb, Free Patriotic Movement, and Lebanese Forces. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor.
Ongoing disputes between the March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.

March 14 Holds 'Consultative Meeting' as LF Fails to Attend Talks
Naharnet/December 11/15/The March 14 alliance held on Thursday a meeting for its leaders during which they agreed to “continue their coordination and consultations,” reported An Nahar daily on Friday. Lebanese Forces MP Georges Adwan was however absent from the meeting, drawing speculation that the party had deliberately boycotted the talks in protest against the recent efforts to nominate Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. Adwan clarified however to the daily that he was unable to attend the meeting due to a “last-minute change to its timing.”He said that he had prior engagements and could not attend the March 14 meeting at its new time. He denied that his absence was politically-motivated. Divisions have emerged between the LF and the Mustaqbal Movement in wake of the recent developments to end the presidential deadlock. Movement leader MP Saad Hariri has been spearheading efforts to nominate Franjieh, a member of the March 8 camp, as president. Hariri's ally in the March 14 camp, LF chief Samir Geagea, is a candidate himself.

STL Registrar Concludes Trip to Lebanon
Naharnet/December 11/15/The Registrar of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Daryl Mundis, concluded an official visit to Beirut, the last for the year 2015, announced the tribunal on Friday. Mundis met with key interlocutors in Lebanon, as well as representatives of the diplomatic community. The Registrar also met the STL staff in the Beirut Office to thank them for their constant efforts. “I continue to appreciate the vital support we receive from various interlocutors here. Visiting Lebanon allows me to oversee first-hand the work of the STL in the country,” Mundis said. The STL Registrar is responsible for the necessary administration and servicing of the Tribunal, including providing support for its judicial activities.

Dialogue Session Postponed to Dec. 21 over Berri's Sister Death
Naharnet/December 11/15/The December 14 national dialogue session has been postponed to Monday, December 21, state-run National News Agency reported. Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) said the session was postponed due to the death of Mariam Berri, the sister of Speaker Nabih Berri. NNA said the funeral will be held tomorrow, Saturday at her hometown Tebnin and that Berri would be receiving condolences in Beirut on December 14 and 15. The postponement comes amid a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh. Franjieh emerged as a potential presidential candidate after the meeting and his nomination is being proposed as part of a settlement that would end the political deadlock in Lebanon. But the initiative ran into major hurdles in recent days after it drew objections and reservations from the country's main Christian parties – the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. The most recent national dialogue session was held on November 25. The conferees addressed the ongoing presidential vacuum as Franjieh urged the media against exaggerating reports on ending the deadlock. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 alliances over a consensual candidate have thwarted the polls.

5 Syrians Held over Murder of Man whose Body was Found in Adonis Car
Naharnet/December 11/15/Five Syrians have been arrested in connection with the murder of a man whose body was found Thursday in the trunk of a car in the Adonis region, the Internal Security Forces said Friday in a statement.
“The body of Lebanese citizen George Farid Faddoul, 82, was found Thursday in the trunk of a Nissan Sunny car in the Adonis area opposite the St. Charbel Church,” the ISF said. “Following intensive investigations and within a short time, an Intelligence Branch patrol managed to arrest the suspect in the Bar Elias region (in the Bekaa) as he was trying to flee to Syria,” the ISF added. It identified the man as a 16-year-old Syrian national. “During interrogation, he confessed to murdering the victim with a knife over financial motives and personal disputes,” the ISF said. He also confessed that four Syrians assisted him in the crime, the ISF added, noting that the four associates have since been arrested.

Hobeish after Meeting Aoun: Contacts Ongoing over Deadlock
Naharnet/December 11/15/Efforts are continuing to solve the presidential deadlock and make the new political settlement that could see the nomination of Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. Al-Mustaqbal MP Hadi Hobeish met with Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun in Rabieh on Friday in what seems to be an attempt to convince him of the said settlement. “We discussed various issues and dialogue with the MP is useful and contacts are ongoing,” said Hobeish after meeting Aoun. Aoun, a candidate of the March 8 camp, had received Franjieh on Wednesday where talks tackled the efforts to nominate the latter as president. Sources close to the change and Reform described the meeting as “positive.” Aoun informed Franjieh that he does not intend to withdraw from the presidential race as long as he still has a chance to reach the country's top post. Media reports have spoken of tension between the two sides in the wake of Franjieh's potential nomination, which was initially sparked after a meeting between him and Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri a few weeks ago. The nomination of Marada leader was rejected by the main Christian parties including the Kataeb party, Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, a candidate of the Mach 14 alliance.

Several People Injured in Restaurant Gas Canister Explosion
Naharnet/December 11/15/More than sixteen individuals were injured in a gas canister explosion on Friday, the state-run National News Agency said. The canister exploded at the Roadster Diner in Antelias north of Beirut, it added. LBCI said that the Civil Defense firefighters were trying to douse the fire that erupted at the restaurant. The Red Cross said that it transported 23 people to the hospital. Reports said that some of the wounded were critically injuried and several hospitals triggered calls for blood donation of all types. Civil Defense Director General Raymond Khattar said after inspecting the site of the explosion: “Search efforts continue to see if any of the kitchen employees are still trapped under the rubble.” The security forces opened an investigation in the incident.

Adwan Says 'Ambassadors Advices' Can't Influence LF Stance
Naharnet/December 11/15/Lebanese Forces deputy chief MP George Adwan stressed Friday that the LF's stance on the presidential elections cannot be influenced by “all the advices that come from ambassadors,” noting that the party cares about “the project, not the candidate.”“All the advices that come from ambassadors do not influence us, as we know our interest more than them, and we have observed how their advices led to the destruction of major countries,” Adwan said in an interview on al-Jadeed television. “The settlement must be in the interest of citizens and not at their expense,” he underlined. Turning to the frayed relations with al-Mustaqbal movement in the wake of Franjieh's nomination, Adwan added: “We are in disagreement but we are keen not to turn it into a dispute.”Asked about a possible visit to Saudi Arabia by LF leader Samir Geagea, the lawmaker noted that “no imminent visit is scheduled.”
A Paris meeting last month between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri had triggered intense speculation that a presidential settlement was in the making. But the initiative appears to be on the verge of collapse in recent days after it drew objections and reservations from the country's main Christian parties – the LF, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Kataeb Party. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor.
Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 alliances over a consensual candidate have thwarted the polls.

Abou Faour Says Stability at Risk if Franjieh Proposal Collapses
Naharnet/December 11/15/Health Minister Wael Abou Faour warned Friday that the country's stability and security will be at stake should a proposed settlement involving MP Suleiman Franjieh's election as president fail. “Those who want the proposed presidential settlement to fail know very well that they would be jeopardizing Lebanon's constitutional and political stability, and maybe its security,” Abou Faour cautioned. Noting that his remarks are not aimed at “intimidation,” the minister said his Progressive Socialist Party “fully believes that the proposed settlement is the best chance available.”“It was devised with care and delicate balances and it aims to unite all Lebanese and political forces over one goal – a unifying national settlement that respects the National Pact and does not exclude or target anyone,” Abou Faour, who is close to PSP chief MP Walid Jumblat, added. Jumblat had met with al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri in Paris in the wake of a similar meeting between the former premier and Franjieh. The PSP leader met later in Beirut with the Marada Movement chief and he has been described by media reports as one of the architects of the proposed settlement. The initiative appears to be on the verge of collapse in recent days after it drew objections and reservations from the country's main Christian parties – the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 alliances over a consensual candidate have thwarted the polls.

Qazzi Meets Geagea: New President Must Enjoy Support of Main Political Factions
Naharnet/December 11/15/Labor Minister Sejaan Qazzi noted on Friday that the political settlement proposed by Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri is “facing obstacles,” saying that a president is unlikely to be elected in 2015. He said after holding talks with Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea: “The Kataeb Party demands the election of a president who enjoys the support of the main political powers.” “This president should respect Lebanon's constitution, sovereignty, and borders,” he stressed. Moreover, he should adhere to the policy of disassociation and keep the country away from regional conflicts, stated Qazzi. “A president should be a figure of unity, not division,” he declared to reporters. “We should adopt a new dynamic to elect a president because the vacuum should no longer persist,” he emphasized. “The Kataeb Party therefore seeks national assurances, not personal ones, regarding the presidential elections,” the minister explained. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh emerged in recent weeks as a potential presidential candidate in the wake of a meeting he held with Hariri in Paris.His candidacy is being proposed alongside a settlement that would end the political deadlock in Lebanon. The efforts to nominate Franjieh have however been met with objections from the Christian parties of the Kataeb, Free Patriotic Movement, and Lebanese Forces.

It’s 1960 forever, The election law that simply never goes away
Michael Young/Now Lebanon/December 11/15
By most accounts the project to bring in Sleiman Franjieh as a compromise candidate for the presidency is not dead, despite indications to the contrary. For it to work, however, several issues must still be agreed between the parties, including which election law will govern future parliamentary elections.
According to some observers, the quiet consensus among the political class is to continue with the 1960 law, which establishes the qada, or small district, as the electoral constituency, albeit with some modifications in certain areas. This has been opposed by the Christian parties, some of which have called for a system of proportional representation. Parliament has established an election committee to examine various alternative laws, but few doubt that this is an exercise in futility. Any law that is accepted will need to have the support of the major political forces in parliament. And for better or worse the law that satisfies virtually all the large blocs, because it consolidates their hold on power, is the 1960 law.
The 1960 law effectively grants Hezbollah, Saad Hariri’s Future Movement, Michel Aoun, Nabih Berri, and Walid Jumblatt the ability to support winning electoral lists in the areas they control. It also allows Hezbollah to give Aoun decisive support through its Shiite electorate in Baabda, Jbeil, and Jezzine. The alliance with Aoun is absolutely vital for the party, allowing it to advance its regional agenda and protect its military autonomy. Hariri gains from the 1960 law as well, as it ensures he can win majorities in Beirut, West Bekaa, Sidon and, albeit through alliances, Tripoli. The same holds for Jumblatt in Aley and the Chouf, though the Druze leader has come to accept that running against Hezbollah and Aoun in Baabda is a losing proposition. Look for him to try remedying that situation in future elections. The 1960 law has allowed Hezbollah to maintain a monopoly over the Shiite electorate, particularly in the South, Baabda, and Baalbek-Hermel, giving it the latitude to agree to a split in seats with Berri. The speaker has his own bloc, but the reality is that he will in no way oppose Hezbollah over issues the party determines to be in its interest.
Because the 1960 law is effectively the instrument allowing the political elite to maintain a headlock on the system, the chances that it will be changed are small. And yet many continue to insist the law must be changed, especially the smaller Christian parties such as the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party, both of whom understand that it guarantees Aoun’s domination. The Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb have succeeded in creating the impression among Christians that the 1960 law allows Muslim leaders to select a substantial number of Christian deputies. This effort to delegitimize the law has forced Aoun to go along publicly with Christian calls to replace it, but the reality is that he has no interest in seeing that effort succeed.
Samir Geagea’s anxiety was visible a few years ago when the Lebanese Forces backed what was known as the Orthodox proposal. This would have led to a law in which the members of each sect would vote only for candidates from their own sect. While it would have ended any pretense that Lebanon is a fairly unified country, Geagea’s calculation was that he would have been able to secure a much larger bloc in parliament through such a law. A return to the 1960 law represents a threat to him, and he might only accept a return to the law if he were guaranteed a large number of seats on the lists of Saad Hariri.
Perhaps that’s how we should understand Geagea’s reaction to the Franjieh project. Before giving his approval, the Lebanese Forces leader wants to receive assurances in exchange for a green light. He has set his red line: If Franjieh is approved over his head, Geagea will back Aoun for the presidency, forcing Berri to vote for him as well. The Franjieh option will die. Until now, however, Geagea has avoided taking such a path, and on Thursday the party’s media officer, Melhem Riachi, speaking to Future Television, kept open the possibility that the Lebanese Forces might adopt a different attitude toward Franjieh. This suggests that Geagea is preparing for some form of bargaining, and the election law will be part of it. If the 1960 law is inevitable, he will look for meaningful compensation. Election laws are the backbone of the Lebanese governance system, because they determine whether someone survives politically or not. In that sense they are considerably more important than who becomes president. If the Franjieh initiative is provoking so many waves, it is partly because the political forces are looking beyond it to see what’s in it for them.
Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

When will Lebanese Maronite parties reach an agreement?
Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/December 11/15
Whenever there’s a crisis in Lebanon, and whenever we are close to electing a president, Christian Maronite parties tend to obstruct each other and disagree. But in June, the two strongest Christian leaders – Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea – met and announced a “declaration of intent”, which came after a long and absurd war. They decreased the distance between themselves and their supporters, and began a march of cooperation and brotherhood. If it had happened years ago, the country – and particularly the community they claim to represent – would have been spared many crises. But they’ve agreed on everything, yet on nothing at all!
Political vacuum
A presidential settlement is capable of ending the political vacuum in Lebanon, as well as the obstruction of the state’s work. Yet Maronite leaders, particularly those who consider themselves the strongest, limited nominations to themselves – thus obstructing the presidential process and excluding other figures who enjoy presidential characteristics. Today, these leaders find themselves in the swamp. They don’t accept Suleiman Franjieh as a candidate for the presidential post, and there are no justifications or logical explanations as to why they reject him. Rejecting a certain candidate requires agreeing on an alternative. However, rejection for the sake of it, and not providing solutions, amounts to obstruction. And it makes Lebanon vulnerable to crisis seen elsewhere in the region, as well as the possibility of allowing others to impose a president, which will lead to chaos. It’s true that this is not only the responsibility of the Christians; however, they are as responsible as others for the presidential vacuum and for the deplorable condition which the country is in. And the leaders are currently confronting an agreement reached by the political parties, who are their partners in governance. The the agreement neither harms the constitution nor the national charter. So what will the Maronite leaders do? It’s difficult to answer this question as they’re now in an unenviable position. They may even need the support of the independent figures they've underestimated. Are we gloating? Of course not. But we’re voicing how unfortunate the situation has become and calling on them to reconsider the situation, and benefit from the painful past experiences so as not to repeat them.

First Canadian plane with Syrian refugees arrives
AFP, Ottawa Friday, 11 December 2015/A plane carrying 163 Syrian refugees has arrived in Canada, kicking off a drive to take in thousands from the war-torn country. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was at Toronto’s airport to greet them. The government hopes to bring in 10,000 Syrian refugees by the end of the year. Two Syrian refugee children pose while their family undergoes medical screening before the beginning of an airlift to Canada, in Beirut. (Reuters) “We will all remember this day,” Trudeau said shortly before greeting the refugees, many of them women and children. The first group arrived aboard a troop transport plane that set out from Beirut and made a stopover in Germany. The new Liberal government campaigned on a pledge to resettle 25,000 Syrians this year. But it backpedaled last month, citing logistical issues and following criticism that Ottawa had been moving too fast despite security concerns heightened by the terror attacks in Paris.Immigration Minister John McCallum has said he remains hopeful the government can bring in 10,000 refugees by December 31. A further 15,000 are expected to arrive by the end of February.Since the start of 2014, Canada has welcomed 3,500 Syrian refugees.

Blair says he urged Qaddafi to quit Libya in 2011
AP, London Friday, 11 December 2015/Tony Blair telephoned Muammar Qaddafi and tried to persuade him to leave Libya as the Arab Spring erupted in February 2011, the former British prime minister revealed Friday. Blair said he was not trying to “save” the Libyan dictator but “to get him out of the situation so that a peaceful transition could take place.”Blair said he’d acted as a private individual and spoke to Qaddafi “two or three” times over a 24-hour period. He said it soon became clear Qaddafi would not leave. Blair, prime minister from 1997 to 2007, was instrumental in ending Qaddafi’s international isolation in return for Libya abandoning its nuclear and chemical arms programs. He has faced criticism for his rapprochement efforts with the oil-rich state, which included a 2004 meeting in Qaddafi’s desert tent. Under Prime Minister David Cameron, the U.K. participated in a NATO-led 2011 military intervention that led to Qaddafi’s ouster and his death at the hands of rebel fighters. Libya has since descended into chaos, with rival militias battling for control and extremists linked to ISIS gaining strength. Blair told Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee that without the earlier deal with Qaddafi there was a risk ISIS in Libya would now have access to chemical weapons. “If we had still had the residue of that chemical weapons program in Libya today, given the state of Libya today and given the presence of ISIS there - it would have constituted a real risk, even today,” he said. Blair - whose decision to join the 2003 invasion of Iraq remains deeply unpopular in Britain - would not criticize Cameron for intervening in Libya, despite the messy outcome. He said it would not necessarily have been better if “Qaddafi tried to cling on to power and others tried to remove him.”“You can look at Syria today where we didn’t intervene, by the way, and say that is even worse,” Blair said.

German spy chief sees 430 extremists as acute risk
The Associated Press, Berlin Friday, 11 December 2015/Germany’s domestic intelligence chief says 430 Islamic extremists in the country are considered so dangerous that they might commit a serious crime at any time. Hans-Georg Maassen told public broadcaster MDR late Thursday that these extremists are being closely watched by security agencies. Maassen says the German Parliament’s recent decision to commit troops for non-combat operations to provide support for the international coalition fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in Syria doesn’t increase the risk of attacks in Germany.
He says security agencies are keen for migrants to provide information on possible fellow travelers who might be planning attacks in Germany.

German vice-chancellor warns of rising nationalism in Europe
The Associated Press, Berlin Friday, 11 December 2015/Germany’s vice chancellor has warned against the rise of nationalism in Europe, citing the far-right National Front that scored strongly in recent French regional elections. Sigmar Gabriel told members of his Social Democratic Party on Friday that movements such as the National Front “stand against everything we represent.”Gabriel cited the National Front’s claim to be both “national and social” - a sensitive phrase in Germany since the dictatorship of Adolf Hitler’s National Socialist German Workers’ Party. He urged conservative politicians to take a stronger stance against the far right, and said left-wing parties in Europe should fight against “the enemies of Europe.”

Putin Orders Military in Syria to Respond Firmly to Threats
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 11/15/President Vladimir Putin on Friday ordered his forces in Syria to take tough action against any threats, speaking two weeks after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in the war-torn country. "I order you to act as tough as possible," he told a defense meeting. "Any targets threatening the Russian grouping or our land infrastructure should be immediately destroyed.""I would like to warn those who would once again try to organize some sort of provocations against our servicemen," he said in a thinly veiled threat to Ankara. Last month, Turkey shot down a Russian warplane on the Syrian border, claiming it violated Turkish airspace. After the downing of the jet, which led to the deaths of a pilot and another serviceman who tried to rescue him, Russia introduced economic sanctions against Turkey and beefed up its firepower at its airbase in Syria. Putin's call for a tougher military response is also likely to cause concern among monitors who have repeatedly accused Russia of conducting an indiscriminate bombing campaign and killing civilians in Syria. Supporting rebels? Putin also claimed Russia was backing the Free Syrian Army (FSA) with arms in joint operations with regime forces. "Right now several of its units numbering more than 5,000 people as well as regular forces are conducting an offensive against terrorists in the provinces of Homs, Hama, Aleppo and Raqa," Putin claimed. "In addition to that, we are supporting them (the FSA) from the air as well as the Syrian army, assisting them with weapons, munition and materiel." It was not immediately clear what rebel groups Putin was referring to. Syria's rebel forces have regularly rejected the possibility of cooperating with the regime or Russia and there has been no evidence of such cooperation. When Russia said in October it was ready to provide air support for Western-backed moderate rebels battling both jihadists and Syrian President Bashar Assad, those groups ridiculed Moscow, urging it to stop bombing them first.Russia has been carrying out air strikes in the war-ravaged nation at Assad's request since the end of September, while a U.S.-led coalition is conducting its own campaign targeting the Islamic State (IS) group. Earlier this week Russia said it hit IS targets with missiles fired from a submarine in the Mediterranean for the first time since launching the campaign. Putin rejected claims that Russia is using the Syrian campaign, which also saw the military fire off cruise missiles from warships in the Caspian Sea, to showcase its top weapons to the West. "Our actions there are not guided by some unclear abstract geopolitical interests, nor are they guided by a desire to practice and test new weapons systems which is of course important in itself," Putin said. "The most important thing is to prevent the threat to Russia itself." Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, for his part, said IS jihadists now control 70 percent of Syrian territory, putting their number at 60,000.

Huge Blast, Gunfire as Spanish Embassy in Kabul Comes under Attack
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 11/15/Insurgents have launched an attack on a Spanish embassy compound in Kabul Friday, Afghan officials said, following reports of gunfire and a massive car bomb in the center of the city. It was not immediately clear if there were casualties. "The embassy has been attacked. We are gathering details," a foreign ministry spokesman in Madrid told AFP, information that was confirmed by the Kabul police. The embassy is in Sherpur in central Kabul, where a huge car bomb struck during rush hour on Friday evening, followed by ongoing bursts of gunfire in an assault that comes as the resurgent Taliban escalate attacks against government and foreign targets.The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, but said the target was a foreign guest house. It was not immediately clear if the guest house was inside the embassy premises. Spanish news agency Europa Press reported that President Mariano Rajoy had been informed, citing government sources. Spain had nine troops left in Afghanistan as of December 2015, according to official NATO figures.

3 Palestinians Killed in W. Bank, Gaza Clashes with Israelis
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 11/15/Three Palestinians were killed Friday in the occupied West Bank and in the Gaza Strip, one after allegedly attempting to run down Israeli soldiers and the others in clashes with troops. Palestinian youths fought Israeli forces near the northern entrance of the West Bank city of Hebron, and the soldiers responded with live fire, witnesses said. "Uday Jihad Irshaid, 22, was killed by live ammunition in his chest during clashes in Hebron," the Palestinian health ministry said. The Israeli military confirmed using live rounds but not the fatality. "A violent riot is taking place in Hebron. Hundreds of Palestinians are attacking forces, hurling rocks and rolling burning tires at them," a spokeswoman said."In order to disperse the crowd, (forces fired) .22 caliber rounds towards the main instigators and warning shots into the air."Irshaid's 17-year-old sister Dania was killed six weeks ago after trying to stab security forces, according to Israeli police. On the border with the Hamas-run coastal enclave of Gaza, a Palestinian was shot dead and 12 wounded in clashes with Israeli forces on the other side of the fence. The Palestinian health ministry said Sami Maadi, 41, died in the incident, east of the al-Bureij refugee camp. An army spokeswoman said "hundreds" of rioters breached the buffer zone between Gaza and Israel, prompting forces to fire on them with live ammunition. "Hits were confirmed," she said. In total 58 people were wounded by live fire in Gaza in four protests in the north, centre and south, the health ministry said. - Attack at crossing -Earlier Friday, a 57-year-old Palestinian was shot dead as he tried to drive his car into a military checkpoint at Halhul, near Hebron, the army said. "A Palestinian attempted to ram his vehicle into security forces near Hebron" in the south of the territory, a statement said. Forces there "shot the attacker, resulting in his death," it said, adding that no Israelis were hurt. Palestinian security sources identified the driver as Issa Haroub from Dir Samat village west of Hebron. About an hour beforehand, a Palestinian fired at Israeli forces at a crossing between the northern West Bank and Israel and was shot and wounded, the Israeli defense ministry said. "An armed Palestinian assailant fired shots on the Gilboa crossing from several dozen meters (yards) away," said the ministry, which employs civilian guards at the site."No casualties or damage have been reported to the crossing or its operators. The assailant, wounded, was picked up by a van and fled the scene," it added. The checkpoint is one of the main crossings in the area. Since October 1, near daily attacks and clashes between Palestinians and security forces have killed 116 on the Palestinian side, 17 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean.
'Return the bodies'
More than half of the Palestinians fatalities have been alleged attackers. Israel has withheld the bodies of many attackers, a policy authorities say acts as a deterrent but that critics argue leads to more anger. On Friday, protesters in Silwad northeast of Ramallah called for Israel to return the bodies. Bassam Hamad, whose son Anas was killed this month after he tried to ram Israeli soldiers with his car, led a protest. "If (Israel) wants to make us suffer by stealing and keeping the bodies of the martyrs, we will make it suffer by being patient and resilient," he told AFP. After Friday's protest, clashes broke out between Palestinian stone throwers and soldiers, with six Palestinians wounded, an AFP correspondent said. Separately, in central Ramallah, Israeli security forces raided a shop early Friday, leading to clashes between residents and soldiers, witnesses said. Three Palestinians were shot, one resident said, but their condition was not known. The army said that, during "routine activity in Ramallah", troops were attacked and responded with "riot dispersal means". Such raids in the West Bank city, home to the Palestinian Authority, are relatively rare. In Gaza, Hamas mobilized thousands of demonstrators in several locations to mark the 28th birthday of the Islamist organization. One of its leaders, Mushir al-Masri, called for "resistance until the complete liberation of Palestine."

Erakat: Press Israel to Make Peace or Watch IS Grow
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 11/15/Islamic State will assume the moral leadership of the Arab world if Israel does not stop crushing Palestinians' hopes of statehood, a senior PLO official warned on Friday. Saeb Erakat, the secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), told a Rome conference on Mediterranean security that the radical jihadism of Islamic State could only be defeated long-term through a resolution of the Palestinian question and the establishment of democracy in Arab countries. "Ever since the beginning of Islam there have been people and organizations seeking to use the religion for their own ends. Daesh is number 803," he said. "You are not going to defeat Daesh with bullets, warplanes and so on."Erakat said the anger that fueled support for groups like Islamic State was undermining people like him who had attempt to negotiate peace with Israel and had been treated instead to the expansion of Israeli settlements on the occupied West Bank. "For 23 years I promised Palestinians we would have our freedom and dignity. What did I bring my people? Instead 200,000 settlers we now have 600,000 and an Israeli prime minister who prides himself on saying 'there will be no Palestinian state on my watch'. "If we go down as Palestinian moderates, if we cannot deliver, mark my words this will be the scenario. "At the moment ISIS are seen as a causeless bunch of criminal terrorists. Nobody is associating with them. "If tomorrow they fill the gap of me and (Palestinian President Mahmoud) Abbas and they start killing Israelis, who amongst one billion Arabs will be against it?" Israel's Interior Minister Silvan Shalom said Israel could not contemplate compromising its security by accepting a Palestinian state that would be a threat to it. "When we try to live in peace with our neighbors we get rockets and missiles," Shalom told the same conference immediately after it had been addressed by Erakat.

IS Claims Blasts that Killed 26 in Kurd-held Syria Town
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 11/15/ At least 26 civilians have been killed in three suicide car bombings claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group in northeastern Syria's Hasakeh province, a monitor said Friday.Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman said the Thursday night attacks on the town of Tal Tamr wounded at least 120 people and warned that the toll could rise further. He said one of the bombs detonated in a residential area near a post manned by Kurdish security forces. Members of the force were believed to have been killed, though he did not have a toll.
Another blast was in front of a hospital, with a doctor was among the dead, and the third hit a vegetable market. Abdel Rahman added that the blasts had caused massive damage, and that some people were still trapped in the ruins of buildings brought down by the explosions. In a statement on social media, IS claimed responsibility, saying three of its members blew themselves up in their explosives-rigged vehicles. It claimed 60 people had been killed and dozens injured. Tal Tamr, in the Khabur region, is controlled by Kurdish forces and has been targeted in the past by IS. In February, IS overran much of Khabur and kidnapped at least 220 Assyrian Christians. But Kurdish fighters from the People's Protection Units (YPG) subsequently recaptured the area, and dozens of the hostages have been released in recent months. On Wednesday, some 25 Assyrians, including two children, were freed by IS, according to the Assyrian Human Rights Network. Elsewhere, the Observatory said at least 12 people, seven of them children, were killed in rebel fire on government-held parts of Aleppo city in the past 24 hours.This week, rebels have stepped up fire into western Aleppo, killing dozens. Once the country's economic hub, Aleppo has been ravaged by fighting and divided between government control in the west and rebel control in the east since shortly after fighting there began in mid-2012.Government war planes regularly carry out deadly raids on the eastern rebel-held portion of the city.

Kerry Sees Problems in Syria Opposition Pact, to Meet Putin Tuesday
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 11/15/The United States warned Friday that some problems remain to be resolved in a pact between Syrian opposition forces if U.N.-backed peace talks are to resume next week. Secretary of State John Kerry said he would talk with his Saudi counterpart about how to fix problems in the deal reached Thursday by Syrian rebel groups meeting in Riyadh. "There are some questions and obviously a couple of, in our judgment, kinks to be worked out," he said. "And I'm confident that they're going to be worked out so I'll be having conversations with them during the course of today." Asked whether a planned December 18 international meeting on the Syria conflict would go ahead in New York, Kerry said: "We'll have to see. "I have to hear what the answers are to some questions that we have today, then we'll let you know."Later on Friday, the U.S. State Department said Kerry will head to Moscow on Tuesday for talks with President Vladimir Putin on the Syrian crisis and the fight against the Islamic State group. "They will discuss ongoing efforts to achieve a political transition in Syria," spokesman Mark Toner said on Friday on the sidelines of the U.N. climate summit in Paris. The talks will also cover differences in the parallel Russian and U.S. approaches to the fight against the IS in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. envoy will also bring up the ongoing stand-off in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow stands accused of supporting pro-Russian separatist rebels, Toner said. Kerry will also meet his counterpart Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He arrives overnight from Paris for a day of high-level dialogue before flying back to Washington. The United States and Russia are the key sponsors of the international bid to mediate an end to the Syrian civil war through the International Syrian Support Group. This 17-nation contact group had been planning to meet in New York under United Nations auspices on December 18 to push forward plans for a negotiated ceasefire. But Moscow and Washington were awaiting the results of a meeting between Syria's splintered opposition and rebel movements before confirming the date of meeting. The rebels met on Thursday in Saudi Arabia and afterwards announced the composition of their team to open negotiations with the government of President Bashar Assad. But they also insisted that Assad must step down immediately at the start of the political transition process, which has a January 1 target date. This insistence may be a sticking point for Assad's allies in Moscow. Kerry said that he had spoken to Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir since the deal was signed. Speaking to reporters he did not outline what his reservations with the deal were, but it is important to Washington that Russia is comfortable with the agreement. Moscow is a close ally of President Bashar Assad. It had said it would confirm whether the next week's planned meeting of the 17 nations of the International Syrian Support Group could go ahead after the rebel talks.

New draft climate deal emerges as Paris talks near end
The Associated Press, Le Bourget, France Friday, 11 December 2015/Negotiators from China, the U.S. and other nations haggled into the early morning Friday over how to share the burden of fighting climate change and paying for a trillion-dollar transition to clean energy on a global scale. Some delegates said an elusive climate pact was in sight heading into the final scheduled day of talks outside Paris while others said a new draft presented late Thursday by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius allowed rich nations to shift the responsibility of fighting global warming to the developing world.
“We are going backwards,” said Gurdial Singh Nijar of Malaysia, the head of a bloc of hardline countries that also includes India, China and Saudi Arabia. They have put up the fiercest resistance against attempts by the U.S., the European Union and other wealthy nations to make emerging economies pitch in to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and help the poorest countries cope with climate change. The issue, known as “differentiation” in United Nations climate lingo, was expected to be one of the last to be resolved. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry zipped in and out of negotiation rooms as delegates broke into smaller groups overnight to iron out their differences. “We’re working on it,” Kerry said as he emerged from one meeting room with an entourage of security agents and State Department aides. Nijar said it was unreasonable to expect countries like Malaysia to rapidly shift from fossil fuels — the biggest source of man-made greenhouse gas emissions — to cleaner sources of energy. “We cannot just switch overnight ... and go to renewables,” he said, on a coffee break between meetings at 1:30 a.m. “If you remove differentiation you create very serious problems for developing countries.”Diplomats from 196 governments are trying to forge a global pact in Paris to slow global warming by collectively slashing emissions. It’s the first time all countries are expected to pitch in — the previous emissions treaty only included rich countries. The 27-page draft — two pages shorter than a previous version — included a long-term goal of keeping global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees F), while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C. The draft also said governments would aim to peak the emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases “as soon as possible” and strive to reach “emissions neutrality” by the second half of the century.
That was weaker language than in previous drafts that included more specific emissions cuts and timeframes. Emissions neutrality wasn’t defined in the text. Previous versions have included similar terms that are generally understood to mean no more emissions than the Earth can naturally absorb. The issue appeared far from settled, however, with one negotiator from a developed country saying his delegation would “push back” on the long-term goal. He spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks were ongoing. “I think, I hope that by the end of this night we’ll have a draft of the final text,” Fabius said. “We are much closer.” The biggest challenge is to define the responsibilities of wealthy nations, which have polluted the most historically, and developing economies including China and India where emissions are growing the fastest. That draft suggested compromises were emerging in some sections. But the text still contained competing options on the key issue of transparency — making sure countries follow through on their emissions targets. That section included an option asking for different rules for rich and poor countries, which the former have said is unacceptable. “Reporting and verification of emissions is the heart of a strong agreement and will clearly be the last thing decided,” said Paul Bledsoe, former Clinton White House climate adviser. More than 180 countries presented plans to cut or curb their emissions before the conference, and negotiators are discussing ways to anchor those pledges in the agreement. Several options remained on the contentious issue of financing to help poor and vulnerable countries such as Small Island nations cope with climate change. Western countries want advanced developing economies such as China and oil-rich Arab countries to pitch in. The new draft said other countries could join the donor base “on a voluntary, complementary basis.”
The draft didn’t resolve how to deal with demands from vulnerable countries to deal with unavoidable damage from rising seas and other climate impacts. One option said such “loss and damage” would be addressed in a way that doesn’t involve liability and compensation — a U.S. demand. Some environmental advocates rejected the draft as too weak to make a real difference in fighting climate change while other said important progress was made. “Of course differences remain, but it’s clear that the countries here are very, very serious about the challenge before them,” said Nat Keohane of the Environmental Defense Fund. “There is strong momentum as we head to the finish line.”The talks have previously been guided by a goal to limit warming to 2 degrees C, compared with preindustrial times. Small island nations at risk of being inundated by rising seas have been pushing for lowering that goal to below 1.5 degrees C in the Paris agreement. Temperatures have already risen by 1 C (1.8 F) since the 19th century, when Western nations started to industrialize and burning fossil fuels on a large scale.Marshall Islands Foreign Minister Tony de Brum was satisfied that the 1.5 degree target was reflected in the draft.
“With this, I would be able to go home and tell my people that our chance for survival is not lost,” he said. However, scientific analyses show the emissions targets that more than 180 countries have presented won’t be enough to limit warming even to 2 degrees C. The draft invited governments to “update” their emissions targets every five years, but didn’t require them to improve them.

Russia has no plans for ISIS fight in Libya but France keen to extend
Agencies Friday, 11 December 2015/Russia has no plans to carry out air strikes in Libya, a stronghold of ISIS militants, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday. “This is not in our plans. We have had no requests of this kind from the government of Libya ... and there is no government of Libya as such,” Lavrov told a news conference during a visit to Italy. Lavrov also said Russia sees a U.S.-led coalition hitting ISIS militants in Syria as a potentially effective partner in the Arab republic. Earlier, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said Friday that international efforts to crush ISIS will increasingly have to extend to Libya where the militants are getting a hold. “We are at war, we have an enemy, Daesh, that we must fight and crush in Syria, in Iraq and soon in Libya too,” Valls said, using an Arabic acronym for the group. Speaking four weeks since ISIS gunmen and suicide bombers attacked Paris, Valls told France Inter radio the threat of further outrages remained “because we have hundreds, even thousands of young people who have succumbed to radicalization.” French planes carried out surveillance flights over Libya last week. Libya has slipped into chaos since the fall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 which ISIS has exploited. The U.N. believes 2,000 to 3,000 fighters are operating there, including 1,500 in the coastal city of Sirte. International talks will take place in Rome on Sunday aimed at helping the country form a unified government. France intensified its air strikes on ISIS’s stronghold in Syria after the group claimed responsibility for attacking Paris.(With Reuters, AFP)

UK police smash fraud network linked to Syria
AFP, London Friday, 11 December 2015/Britain convicted nine men in a case of “industrial-scale fraud” on Thursday after a terrorism investigation uncovered suspect payments into an account of a person who had travelled to Syria. In a £1 million (1.4 million euro) scam, the men targeted elderly and vulnerable people in the south of England by pretending to inform them of bank fraud, then persuading them to hand over cash to “keep it safe”, police said. “We uncovered this fraud after a separate terrorist investigation found suspicious payments into a bank account of an individual who is now believed to have travelled to Syria,” said Richard Walton, head of the Metropolitan Police’s counter-terrorism unit. Police identified Makzhumi Abukar, who directed the frauds from a north London address, as being the main organizer of the network. Members of the group were either convicted of money laundering or conspiracy to commit fraud, and are currently awaiting sentencing. Police did not say whether any of the convicted men had travelled to Syria, or if the owner of the account to which payments were made was still there. Countries fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq are trying to crack down on the group’s sources of funding.

Americans oppose Trump’s anti-Muslim plan
AFP, Washington Friday, 11 December 2015/A majority of Americans oppose Donald Trump’s controversial plan to ban Muslims from entering the United States, but one in four supports it, according to the first major national poll since the furor erupted. The frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the White House triggered an outcry on Monday with the proposal, which was lambasted at home and abroad. Fifty-seven percent of adults in the US are against the idea, while 25 percent are for it, according to the new survey by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal on Thursday. Eighteen percent did not know or had no opinion. Among Republicans the views are mixed: 42 percent of Republican respondents back Trump’s Muslim ban, while 36 percent oppose it. Three-quarters of Democrats stand opposed. The poll also found that 41 percent of Americans believe Trump’s bombastic campaign statements in general are frequently insulting. Twenty-two percent say Trump is telling it like it is and has the correct approach. The survey also showed that Americans have a favorable opinion of Muslims - 59 percent positive compared to 29 percent negative - upholding a relatively stable position on the question since 2002.

Catholics should not try to convert Jews, Vatican says
Vatican City, Reuters Thursday, 10 December 2015/Catholics should not try to convert Jews and should work with them to fight anti-Semitism, the Vatican said on Thursday in a major new document that drew the Church further away from the strained relations of the past. Christianity and Judaism are intertwined and God never annulled his covenant with the Jewish people, said the document from the Vatican's Commission for Religious Relations with Jews. “The Church is therefore obliged to view evangelization to Jews, who believe in the one God, in a different manner from that to people of other religions and world views,” it said. It also said Catholics should be particularly sensitive to the significance to Jews of the Shoah, the Hebrew word for the Holocaust, and pledged “to do all that is possible with our Jewish friends to repel anti-Semitic tendencies.” “A Christian can never be an anti-Semite, especially because of the Jewish roots of Christianity,” it said. The document coincided with the 50th anniversary of a revolutionary Vatican statement that repudiated the concept of collective Jewish guilt for Jesus’ death and launched a theological dialogue that traditionalists have rejected. They feel there should be a so-called “Jewish mission” to convert Jews because they did not accept Jesus as the Messiah, and were therefore bound to be displeased by the new official stance on conversion, a senior Vatican official said. “In concrete terms this means that the Catholic Church neither conducts nor supports any specific institutional mission work directed towards Jews,” said the document, adding that there was a “principled rejection of an institutional Jewish mission.” A Vatican expert in Catholic-Jewish dialogue said it was the first time a repudiation of active conversion of Jews was so clearly stated in a Vatican document. Until about 1960, prayers at Catholic Masses on Good Friday, the day commemorating the death of Jesus, labelled Jews “perfidious” and called for their conversion. That prayer was eliminated from general use after the 1962-1965 Second Vatican Council introduced a new missal, or prayer book used at Masses. But later a prayer for the Jews was allowed to remain in the old-style Latin Mass, sometimes called the Tridentine Rite, used by ultra-traditionalists such as the Society of Saint Pius X, whose members reject the reforms of the Second Vatican Council.In 2008, former Pope Benedict further reformulated the prayer used by the traditionalists to remove language Jewish groups found offensive, such as “the blindness of that people.”Thursday’s document said Catholics should “bear witness to their faith in Jesus Christ also to Jews” but that they should do so in "a humble and sensitive manner, acknowledging that Jews are bearers of God’s word...”

Palestinians' Biggest Tragedy: Failed Leadership
by Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 11/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7028/palestinians-failed-leadership
It was recently reported that the commander of the Islamic State (ISIS) branch in Sinai held talks in the Gaza Strip with leaders of Hamas's armed wing, the Ezaddin al-Qassam Brigades, about expanding their cooperation.
President Abbas does not seem to care whether the Palestinians of Gaza are turned into hostages and prisoners. He is probably hoping that the crisis will drive Palestinians to revolt against the Hamas regime, paving the way for his PA to return to the Gaza Strip.
Instead of trying to solve the Gaza crisis, Abbas is too busy waging a diplomatic war against Israel. He wants to file "war crimes" charges against Israel with the International Criminal Court -- ignoring the fact that he and Hamas are responsible for the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza.
The Palestinians ignore the fact that their biggest tragedy over the past few decades has been (and remains) their failed and corrupt leadership that is willing to sacrifice them for its own interests.
Since June 2013, the Rafah border crossing, the sole crossing point between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, has been closed for most of the time.
Since the beginning of 2015, the Egyptian authorities have opened the Rafah terminal for a total of only 21 days.
Last week, the Egyptians opened the border crossing for two days, allowing a few hundred Palestinians to cross in both directions.
Last year, by contrast, the terminal was open for a total of 123 days, and in 2013 for 263 days.
These figures indicate that the Egyptians have stepped up security measures along their shared border with the Gaza Strip over the past few years.
In addition to the continued closure of the Rafah terminal, the Egyptian army continues to destroy dozens of smuggling tunnels between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. In recent weeks, the Egyptians have been pumping seawater into the tunnels, causing most of them to collapse.
The Egyptians have good reason to be concerned about the smuggling tunnels -- especially in light of increased Islamist terror attacks against Egyptian soldiers and civilians in the Sinai Peninsula. Reports about cooperation between Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, and the Islamist terror groups in Sinai, have also prompted the Egyptians to keep the Rafah terminal shut for most of the time.
Left: The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Right: A Gazan man works in a smuggling tunnel under the Gaza-Egypt border, which was flooded by the Egyptian army.
A report on Israel's Channel 2 last week revealed that Shadi al-Munei, commander of the Islamic State (ISIS) branch in Sinai, recently visited the Gaza Strip for secret talks with Hamas leaders.
According to the report, the ISIS commander held talks with leaders of Hamas's armed wing, the Ezaddin al-Qassam Brigades, about expanding the cooperation between the two groups.
But there is another reason the Egyptians insist on keeping the Rafah terminal shut, leaving thousands of Palestinians stranded on both sides of the border: the ongoing power struggle between Hamas and Fatah.
Before blaming the Egyptians for the predicament of the residents of the Gaza Strip, Palestinians need, for a change, to hold their leaders responsible for their continued suffering.
In recent weeks, it has become evident that the Hamas-Fatah dispute is the main reason behind the continued closure of the Rafah border crossing.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi does not trust Hamas; that is the reason he is not prepared to reopen the terminal on a permanent basis.
Sisi recently told Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas that Egypt would be prepared to reopen the terminal permanently only if Hamas relinquishes control over the Palestinian side of the border and allows PA forces to take control of it, as was the situation before the summer of 2007, when the Islamist movement seized control over the entire Gaza Strip.
While Sisi does not trust Hamas, it is worth noting that Hamas does not trust the PA and Abbas. Hamas does not want to see Abbas's security forces return to the Gaza Strip in any way, even if that means keeping thousands of Palestinians stranded on both sides of the border and living in an open-air prison.
"Hamas will never hand control over the terminal to the filthy hands that betrayed the Palestinians," explained Salah Bardaweel, a senior Hamas official in the Gaza Strip. "Hamas can't sell its people to these hands, regardless of the price." He also claimed that Palestinians from the Gaza Strip have been paying bribes to PA officials in the West Bank to obtain permission from the Egyptian authorities to cross through the Rafah terminal.
By refusing to cede control over the border crossing with Egypt, Hamas is in fact holding the entire population of the Gaza Strip as hostages. Hamas is saying, "We either continue to manage the Rafah terminal, or no one leaves or enters the Gaza Strip." The most Hamas is prepared to accept is an arrangement that allows it to manage the terminal in partnership with the PA -- an idea to which Abbas remains strongly opposed.
According to the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry, about 25,000 Palestinians need to leave the Gaza Strip through the Rafah terminal for "humanitarian reasons." Still, Hamas is not prepared to make any concessions to alleviate the suffering of its people.
Abbas, for his part, does not really seem to care whether the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip are turned into hostages and prisoners. In fact, he is probably hoping that the crisis will drive Palestinians to revolt against the Hamas regime, paving the way for his PA to return to the Gaza Strip.
Instead of trying to solve the crisis in the Gaza Strip, Abbas is too busy waging a diplomatic war against Israel in the international arena. He wants to file "war crimes" charges against Israel with the International Criminal Court, while ignoring the fact that he and Hamas are responsible for the suffering of tens of thousands of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Hamas-Fatah dispute has turned the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip into hostages and prisoners. The Palestinians will never be able to solve their problems as long as they continue to ignore the fact that their biggest tragedy over the past few decades has been (and remains) their failed and corrupt leadership that is willing to sacrifice them for its own interests.

Saudi and Egyptian marines capture Iran-held island at Red Sea chokepoint
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 11, 2015
In a pivotal breakthrough in the Yemen civil war, Thursday, Dec. 11 the naval forces of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAR took by storm from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels the Greater Hanish island, which is part of the strategic archipelago commanding the Strait of Bab al Mandeb. This is reported exclusively by debkafile’s Middle East sources. This highly strategic strait links the Indian Ocean with the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea – i.e. Africa and Asia – and is the world’s fourth busiest chokepoint for international oil traffic. Captured by Yemeni rebels last May, the island was converted by Iranian officers into an armed base and one of Tehran’s largest depots for the supply of arms to its forces and proxies in the region. A fleet of small boats and fishing vessels kept the Yemeni Houthis amply armed for fending off the Saudi-led Arab coalition fighting to restore the exiled Yemeni government.
The Hanish island base also provided Iran with a commanding position for spreading its influence in Ethiopia and Eritrea on the eastern African seaboard.
Taking the island was a major breakthrough for the coalition, after long months of combat that was crowned by their capture of the southern Yemeni seaport of Aden in the past three months. With the occupation of Greater Hanish, Saudi-led forces are now in position not just to cut off Iran’s weapons supplies to the Yemeni rebels, but also to break its grip on the vital strait that connects the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal. Iran maintained on Greater Hanish Island advanced radar and electronic tracking stations for keeping an eye on military movements on the southern Saudi border with northern Yemen. They could also shadow oil tanker and other shipping passing through the Red Sea, and stake out Israel’s south- and east-bound sea traffic as it passed through the Gulf of Aqaba.
debkafile’s military and intelligence sources reveal that Saudi Arabia and Egypt finally decided that the seizure of the strategic island could not be delayed when last month, Iran won a permit to establish an air and sea base in Djibouti, the Horn of Africa nation opposite the Gulf of Aden’s entrance to the Red Sea.
Djibouti derives much of its revenue from renting out tracts of land to foreign nations seeking bases of operation in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. American and French bases are situated no more than 214 km from Greater Hanish Island. Riyadh, Cairo and the UAE agreed that they could not afford to let Iranian air and naval forces gain control of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait from its twin footholds on the island and in Djibouti. They were not the only interested parties. It may be taken for granted that their operation to take over Greater Hanish was quietly assisted by Western and Middle East interests that had been watching Iran’s takeover of these vital ocean pathways with grave concern.

Iran’s long aim for its ballistic missiles
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/December 11/15
The Joint Plan of Action Agreement (JCPOA) between six world powers and Iran hints ambiguously at “addressing U.N. Security Council resolutions” regarding Tehran. However, the JCPOA further states that Iran should not undertake any ballistic missile activity “until the date eight years after the JCPOA Adoption Day or until the date on which the IAEA submits a report confirming the Broader Conclusion, whichever is earlier”.Nevertheless, Iran has repeatedly test-fired long-range ballistic missiles and laser-guided surface-to-surface missiles. In October and November, just after the nuclear deal was reached, the Islamic Republic tested a new ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads. This was in breach of two U.N. Security Council resolutions and JCPOA. Not only did the nuclear deal not temper Iran’s foreign policy, IRGC leaders appear to be more empowered to manifest their military power.
Iranian leaders aren’t reserved about projecting their military power. When his country was unveiling a new missile, Fateh 313, President Hassan Rouhani pointed out that “we will have a new ballistic missile test in the near future that will be a thorn in the eyes of our enemies.” An Iranian state news agency, Fars, also posted a video of Iran’s underground missile testing facility.But why would Iran need such a diverse ballistic arsenal? Why doesn’t Iran fear breaching UNSC resolutions and JCPOA? How will the international community react and what implications will Iran’s actions have on the nuclear deal?
Ballistic threat to the region
Iran’s ballistic capability is one of the most critical pillars of Tehran’s national security policy. Aside from managing Iran’s nuclear program, and supporting its proxies, the third important program of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is its ballistic missile program. Surpassing Israel, Iran possesses the largest and most diverse ballistic missile program in the Middle East. No country, other than Iran, has acquired long range ballistic missiles before obtaining nuclear weapons. This makes the IRGC one of the most formidable military institutions in the region. Ballistic missiles can be used for offensive or defensive purposes, but sophisticated missiles are mainly developed as delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons. Tehran’s ballistic missiles can hit any country in the Middle East. But Iranian leaders are not satisfied with this capability and are looking to expand. Iran’s ballistic technology has grown due to Iran-North Korea ties. But Tehran has gradually relied on its domestic infrastructure as well, and adapted new technology to expand its ballistic arsenal.
Repercussions and P5+1 reaction
Iran’s determination to have the most robust and largest ballistic missile arsenal in the region highlights its ambitions for supremacy through militarization. By emphasizing the need to fight the “enemies”, IRGC leaders have succeeded at rallying Parliament to secure billions of the government’s revenue to spend on Iran’s ballistic and nuclear program. Iran’s improving military capabilities are increasing support for IRGC and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If we argue that the Islamic Republic isn’t going to use these ballistic missiles against other nations, Iran’s expanding program and frequent test-fires are intended to create fear in the region. This inevitably leads to further destabilization and militarization of the region. For example, Israel has begun improving its Arrow Missile Defense system in response to Iran’s missile program. Not only did the nuclear deal not temper Iran’s foreign policy and regional hegemonic ambitions, IRGC leaders appear to be more empowered to manifest their military power. Despite the efforts of the international community since the 1980s, the Islamic Republic has managed to expand its missile program to be the largest in the region. Iran’s missile range has grown from 500km to over 2000km.
This comes despite the United Nations Security Council resolution 1929 that states: “Iran shall not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using ballistic missile technology, and that States shall take all necessary measures to prevent the transfer of technology or technical assistance to Iran related to such activities.” However, Iran’s rapidly improving missile capabilities are less likely to cause a reaction from P5+1. In addition, these breaches of the JCPOA and UNSC resolutions are not going to change P5+1’s decision to lift the ban on Iran’s ballistic program and remove sanctions by early next year. P5+1 is bolstering IRGC’s military prowess and rallying more hard-line support behind IRGC.

We are being deceived on Iran
Alex Fishman/ Ynetnews/December 11/15
Analysis: Five days before the deadline for implementing the deal with the West: Intelligence officials let on that Iran is not meeting its obligations to dismantle its nuclear program. Following the signing of the nuclear deal in July, the sanctions against Iran will be lifted within the next seven days, on December 15. But Iran is not meeting its obligations to dismantle its nuclear capability as per its agreement with six world powers. This revelation was confirmed by Western intelligence officials who have been following Iran's dismantling of its nuclear program. Nonetheless, in Israel there is no mistaken illusion: the sanctions on Iran will indeed be lifted next week, at the appointed time, and moreover while world powers try to blur the fact that this process will take place despite Tehran's failure to honor its commitments.
According to the agreement, the Iranians have until December 15 to dismantle two-thirds of its active centrifuges, so that they will not have more than 6,000 old-generation centrifuges in their possession. All the advanced centrifuges will be taken apart, the stockpiles of enriched uranium (up to the grade of 3.6 percent) will be reduced from 7,000kg to 300kg and the medium-grade enriched uranium will be destroyed. The Iranians are also obligated to make engineering changes to their plutonium creation at its Arak reactor, so that it will not be able to create military-grade material. They must also allow the continuous presence of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors at their nuclear facilities.
Deliberate deception
None of these clauses have been fulfilled. Yedioth Ahronoth has received information from Western intelligence officials showing with that the pace the Iranians are working at, they will only meet their obligations sometimes during the second half of 2016 – and perhaps even later. However, this seems not to make any difference to the IAEA. Reuters news agency revealed the draft resolution of the IAEA board of governors, which sets out that "all the activities in the road-map for the clarification of past and present outstanding issues regarding Iran's nuclear program were implemented in accordance with the agreed schedule and further notes that this closes the Board's consideration of this item." In contrast to the board of directors, however, IAEA inspectors – those who are actually supposed to be confirming whether Iran is meeting its obligations – revealed this week that Iran is in fact not keeping to its commitment to give a full report of the military components that its nuclear project had in the past. This report was another requirement of the nuclear agreement.
The inspectors said that there is reason to assume that the Iranians had been engaged in nuclear-military development until 2009 – contradicting a 2007 American intelligence report which stated that Iran had discontinued its nuclear weapons program in 2003. The conclusion that is missing from this assessment is clear: American intelligence reports on the subject of Iran are deceptive and fixed, probably for political motives. The Iranians for their part have signaled that they do not accept the ruling of the IAEA inspectors. They have requested that only the board of directors – which is comprised of representatives of the world powers at the international agency – will be the ones to assess whether Iran is adhering to the clause that requires it to reveal its nuclear weapons project.
The Iranians hope that the representatives of the powers, who are diplomats, will gloss over this finding from the inspectors on the ground. Going by the draft resolution revealed by Reuters, it seems that the Iranians will not be disappointed. Another issue has arisen ahead of the IAEA's publication of its report on whether Iran is meeting its obligations. According to the world powers party to the agreement, Iran has breached another requirement it was supposed to meet in order for the sanctions to be lifted entirely. Part of the Vienna agreement involved the non-proliferation of unconventional weapons – including a ban on ballistic missile tests.
However, it was recently revealed in the West that Iran carried out such a test – involving a long-range ballistic missile – on its border with Pakistan, around a month ago. The US government expressed its concern at this breach of the agreement, but the State Department simply said that they needed to "check the nature of the test" with satellite imagery.
A gift to Rouhani
This is of course a pretense of innocence: it's not only that the US government and intelligence apparatus know exactly what this test was, they also know that two ballistic missiles were fired within a relatively short space of time. An American official confirmed to The Associated Press that Iran carried out the second test with a ballistic missile – to which a nuclear warhead can be affixed – on November 21. The official further stated that Iran only reported the first tests, which it conducted on October 10. The two tests are a severe violation of the nuclear agreement. "If we verify these reports and discover that there has been a violation, we will take the appropriate measures," said State Department Spokesperson John Kirby.
The Russian alibi
Behind the tough statements it is clear that the US, along with the rest of the world powers, fully understand the firing of these missiles – but is making a supreme effort to cover it up in order not to embarrass itself. Every intelligence official in the West also knows which preliminary stage Iran is at with regard to dismantling its nuclear capabilities, as well as being aware of Iran's violations concerning its ballistic missiles and the distribution of weapons to terror organizations in the Middle East – i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Russians are on the threshold of an enormous business deal with Iran, worth billions of dollars, that is supposed to extricate Moscow from the economic crisis it has fallen into as a result of the West's sanctions and the oil price crash. A senior Russian inspector at the IAEA stated this week that Iran "is meeting its obligations regarding uranium enrichment," probably in order to create a Russian alibi for the advancement of its deal with Iran. The Obama government also has a clear interest in covering up the fact that Iran is still not sticking to its commitments, a state of affairs which would obligate the US to admit that it had misled Congress. Also in play here is the US's desire to strengthen the so-called "pragmatic government" of Rouhani against the more conservative elements in Iran, ahead of parliamentary elections that are due to take place in a couple of months. The lifting of sanctions would strengthen Rouhani's standing.
During the first stage of the lifting of sanctions – which starts on December 15 – $150 million in frozen funds will be released to the Iranian regime from European banks. Straight after that a series of commercial agreements will gradually be able to be signed between Iran and different countries around the world, and the rest of the funds released.

More veils lift as topic loses political punch in Iran
Mahmoud Pargoo/Al-Monitor/December 11/15
Discussion of the Islamic veil took up a tiny part of books on Islamic law, or Sharia, before the beginning of the last century. Covering one’s head was mainly considered a precondition for women to conduct certain rituals such as daily prayers. There were discussions about general rules for dress, namely that men and women should cover specific parts of their bodies. Today, the topic has become central to many debates about religion in Iran, as well as many other countries with a significant Muslim population. For instance, Iran’s police recently announced that cars driven by “poorly veiled” women would be confiscated.In Iran, veiling gained significance in the early decades of the 1900s, when a majority of people found themselves under pressure to give up their customary dress and wear Western clothes. Following Turkey's "hat law" of 1925, a similar law to unveil women was passed by Reza Shah Pahlavi in 1936 and brutally implemented. When people protested the law, government forces responded with bullets. Hundreds died in a single protest in the northeastern city of Mashhad that year. Hence, the veil became highly politicized — and symbolic. Clerics reacted to the efforts to undermine the veil with a counteroffensive that emphasized the veil's religious importance. Between 1911 and 1969, religious scholars wrote dozens of new treatises about the centrality of the veil to Shiite teachings, making it a pivotal symbolic element of Shiite Islam.
On the other end of the spectrum, a few months after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, the veil became a controversial issue again. Unveiled women were seen as anti-revolutionary as the veil became a symbol for revolutionary zeal. Indeed, in 1980, government buildings in Iran denied entry to unveiled women, and soon after, all women had to cover their heads in public spaces.
Over three decades after the Islamic Revolution, the veil is still important to the Iranian state as a symbol of political allegiance and an indicator of the Islamic Republic’s commitment to Islamic values. The prevailing view is that religious symbols should be preserved, especially in the public sphere, to guarantee the support of both traditional clerics and lay people. A compromise by the government on this matter would be interpreted as a political defeat and an eye-catching political victory for the opposition. Hence, no political actor is willing to take on the matter of the veil.
There are, however, two parallel and gradual, albeit steady, trends that are paving the way for more freedoms and a final lifting of the mandatory veil. First, there are efforts to depoliticize the veil, and second, the religious validity of its coerced use is being increasingly questioned.
Iran's conservative media outlets and state TV have begun to redefine political loyalty to the Islamic Revolution by broadening the criteria to include unveiled women. The standards of loyalty are no longer as demanding as they once were. Even if one does not espouse "proper" veiling, one can still be a patriot who loves the country and its government.
The previous narrow definition of political loyalty naturally resulted in the decline in the number of active supporters of the state during the past two decades. Hence, the Islamic Republic has started to slacken the criteria and include loosely veiled women to increase its supporter figures. As a result, the veil is beginning to lose its political significance as a sign of being in favor of the state, and becoming an individual and personal choice with no political connotations.Indeed, in November 2012, referring to some women who allegedly lacked “proper” Islamic headscarves while attending a ceremony to welcome his visit to a northeastern city in Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “What should we do with them? Is it advisable to reject them? Is it right to reject them? No, their hearts are attached to this camp and their souls are attached to our goals and values.”
There are tremendous ongoing efforts to undermine the legitimacy of the Iranian state’s requirement for women to wear the veil. Though a majority of clerics believe the veil is a religious obligation, there is controversy over whether the state is allowed to enforce its use.
There is an increasing number of clerics who are adopting the view that though the veil is indeed a religious obligation for individual women, it should not be imposed by the state. There are sophisticated jurisprudential discussions that have found Sharia does not require the state to enforce the veil. Indeed, as recently as May of this year, calls for suspending veil enforcement gained more momentum from Muhammad Reza Zaeri, a young but popular cleric who is politically close to the conservative camp. He argues from an entirely religious perspective that enforcement of the Islamic veil has a reverse effect upon people’s overall religiosity: “If you want people to wear the veil, do not force them to wear it.” This kind of argument opens the doors of change without creating the impression that the state has retreated from its revolutionary and religious principles. The fact that Zaeri expressed his views on Iranian state TV is extremely meaningful. The depoliticization of the veil or its marginalization in religion will, however, not be accomplished by the actions of the Iranian state or clerics alone. It requires the other side of the dispute to compromise, too. As long as the opposition uses the veil as a means to mobilize public support inside Iran and international sympathy outside the country, the Islamic Republic will continue to resist change — even if all the doctrinal grounds have been prepared.

4 ways Russia could retaliate against Turkey
Maxim A. Suchkov/Al-Monitor/December 11/15
As the emotional heat from Turkey’s downing of a Russian military plane dissipates, Moscow has been pondering its retaliation. Doing real damage to Ankara, however, is proving easier said than done. Many of the drastic options initially proposed by some pro-Kremlin experts — such as arming the Kurds or retaliating militarily — have tuned out to be more nuanced than originally thought. By backing down from his harsh rhetoric and seeking to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to calm escalating hostilities, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan created the impression he was looking for an exit strategy in the emerging conflict with Russia. Putin is still in pursuit of a well-balanced yet decisive and effective response. At this point, however, Russian options are limited and, as it turns out, look bad for all parties. Even some of the steps Russia has already taken, such as visa requirements, travel bans and trade restrictions, are considered by many in Russia as half measures, as they do not demonstrate any palpable damage to Turkey. However, any strong action will complicate things even more and drag Russia further into the Middle East.
There currently are four groups of retaliatory options the Kremlin might consider. First is the military option, which severely concerns some and excites others. To the delight of the first and disappointment of the latter, it’s highly unlikely that Russia will stage a military retaliation in any form, let alone a direct, head-on strike. NATO members are not particularly happy with what their Turkish partner did. Neither are they excited about the way Erdogan tried to manage the aftermath. “His hot-tempered moves drove a wedge into the decades-strong unity of the alliance,” said a German NATO official on condition of anonymity. There’s every likelihood that NATO as an organization will end up politically split over the matter, which is not what the alliance needs now in the face of daunting security challenges to Europe.
Second, the economic response looks like the most obvious, especially in light of the steps Moscow has already taken. However, the Russian economy is in bad shape and the Russian leadership is not interested in making matters worse. “Harsher sanctions, should they be applied, would hurt the Russian economy a lot more than that of Turkey,” said economist Sergei Khestanov of the Russian Academy of National Economy and State Service. There are two other options Moscow could consider that would be both costly to Erdogan politically and painful for Turkey in the long run.
The option Moscow would most likely pursue entails painting Erdogan and his close associates as “accomplices of terrorists.” This strategy would be designed to diminish Western support for the Turkish government and force Turkey to physically demonstrate that its alleged struggle against the Islamic State (IS) is real and tangible. If Turkey’s leadership fails to do so, Erdogan’s profile will deteriorate further internationally. It won’t necessarily make him more cooperative; in fact, it might be quite the opposite, given his impulsive and ambitious nature. But then, that kind of reaction could back up Russia’s argument that Erdogan’s behavior is reckless and irresponsible.
The Russian Defense Ministry said it has already presented Moscow-based military attaches of foreign embassies with “concrete evidence” of Turkey smuggling oil in cooperation with IS. The accusation has echoed in the public and resulted in calls for journalists to investigate the issue in the West, Middle East and Turkey itself. Even though some found the “evidence” rather flawed, Russia’s Defense Ministry claims it will present more photo and video footage to prove its charge. The last, but definitely not least, retaliatory option for Moscow has to do with raising the stakes regarding Turkish domestic security. Putin’s promise to “not forget what happened” in his recent address to the Federal Assembly may mean exactly that: long-term security complications. The Kurdish issue could rise from the dead in Russian public discourse. But such an approach would be a lengthy and resource-demanding process requiring a lot of fine work. This wouldn’t provide the fast response the public wants to see; by the time it gets implemented, the impetus for retaliation might lose its steam. Most importantly, the approach also would have a lot of drawbacks for Russia itself, since Russia’s own domestic structure has vulnerabilities Turkey can easily exploit through its channels.
For years, Ankara has been forging ties with Russia’s massive Turkic population, from the North Caucasus to the Ural region and now to the Crimean Peninsula. In fact, these groups seem most concerned over the future of the bilateral relations. An ethnic Karachay senior religious leader in the North Caucasus told Al-Monitor, “We have found ourselves between the Turkish anvil and the Russian hammer. If anything, we wouldn’t want to make a choice between our loyalty to Russia and sympathy to ‘things Turkish.’”The feeling is largely shared, with larger geopolitical and economic stakes, by two of Russia’s immediate neighbors, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The two are extremely uneasy about the ongoing spat between Moscow and Ankara and are looking for ways to mediate the suddenly emerged conflict. In a phone conversation with Erdogan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan suggested establishing a Russian-Turkish commission to investigate the downing of the plane and establish responsibility. Nevertheless, the domestic-security option is not entirely off the table for Moscow and is likely to be considered down the road, even though Russia is reluctant to exploit it for now.
So far, the visible losers in the conflict are the groups in both countries that have been involved in bilateral work at all levels: People-to-people contacts, academic exchanges and scientific projects have suffered most. This paves the way for a dangerous trend where incompetence rather than expertise dominates the public discourse, while different phobias further narrow the options for settling the conflict.

Are Turkey and Iran reviving a 16th century conflict?
Cengiz Çandar/Al-Monitor/December 11/15
In an Al-Monitor article on Dec. 7, Metin Gurcan discusses Turkey’s latest and controversial move near Mosul that aroused the fury of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's government in Baghdad and brought Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani to Ankara. He also supplied invaluable technical details of the military dimension of the move. Turkey is already entangled in a crisis with Russia that has the potential of escalating dangerously. For many, opening up a new front for controversy — this time with Baghdad — may not seem a wise move, but it needs to be assessed within a broader regional context. The Turkish move, involving Bashiqa, a town just north of Mosul, does have a rationale in the broader regional framework in which a Russia-Iran axis, also aligned with Baghdad, is overtly imposing itself over Syria. Such an axis would be attractive also for Turkey's Kurdish insurgent Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), whose affiliates the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and People's Protection Units (YPG) are proving themselves as the most reliable and strongest fighting forces on the ground in Syria against the Islamic State (IS).
The PKK and YPG also played an important role in Iraq in the liberation of the town of Sinjar from IS. Sinjar commands the most important road linking Raqqa, the de facto capital of IS in Syria, with its most important reward, Mosul, considered to be a Sunni bastion against the capital, Baghdad, and its Shiite politicians. IS took over Mosul in June 2014. In the eyes of Ankara, there is a visible linear axis linking Tehran to Damascus crossing over Baghdad. This is enhanced by a resurgent Russia that could undermine Turkey’s regional standing even further, following the latest conflict that erupted after the downing of the Russian fighter jet by missiles fired from a Turkish F-16 on Nov. 24.
As the siege against IS in Mosul sends optimistic signals that the city could be liberated in the foreseeable future, Turkey, keeping this geopolitical situation in mind, has been prompted to move. As a matter of fact, taking history into account, it may be seen as no more than a replay of perennial Turco-Persian or Turkish-Iranian rivalry in and over Mesopotamia. Ottoman Turkey and Safavid Iran fought over Mesopotamia for the control over today’s Iraq several times in the 16th and 17th centuries. The Safavids, a Turkish dynasty that once ruled what is today Iran, declared Shiism as the state religion of their empire. Until Shah Ismail transformed the empire in the land of ancient Persia, its subjects were predominantly Sunni. Adding to the theological dimension of the matter, ever since the first half of the 16th century, Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey — irrespective of the nature of their regimes and who is ruling them — have been geopolitical rivals, and their competition mostly has been reflected over the territory and the communities of Mesopotamia.
Baghdad itself changed hands several times. It was under Safavid rule between 1508 and 1534, before it fell into Ottoman-Turkish hands in 1638. It was the British capture of the city in 1917 that ended years of Sunni-Ottoman-Turkish rule over the Shiite Arabs. The wars between the Ottomans and the Safavids ceased in 1638 with the Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin that drew the frontiers between what are Iran and Turkey today, and between Iran and what is Iraq today (with minor modifications). Both sides, when it comes to boast about the depth of their good neighborly relations, refer to this treaty that is nearly 150 years older than the foundation of the United States of America. Although Turkey and Iran have never fought since then, they have acknowledged each other's regional standing and privileges; their competition in different arenas is not as acute and deep as between the Shiites and Sunnis of Iraq.
Following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Shiites for the first time ruled Baghdad, further alienating the Sunnis and paving the road for the emergence of Sunni extremist organizations such as “al-Qaeda of Mesopotamia” that ultimately transformed itself into the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and subsequently IS.As Baghdad is seen moving to Tehran’s orbit today, the conditions for an Ankara-Erbil (KRG) rapprochement have become timely and significant. It has become a geopolitical imperative.
The Islamist government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Turkey proved more and more to be the sponsors and the protectors of the Sunni Arabs of Iraq and acted in mediating between the Barzani-ruled KRG and Sunni Arab notables, particularly those of the Nujaifi clan of Mosul, the capital of Ninevah province. Thanks to Turkish efforts, Osama al-Nujaifi has been elected as the speaker of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad with Kurdish support, while his brother Atheel was governor of Ninevah province from 2009 until this year, albeit of a truncated province after IS took Mosul. With this in mind, it should not be difficult to look for and find a rationale in Turkey’s latest move involving Mosul. In fact, on the day of Barzani’s visit to Turkey’s capital, Erdogan explained the motives of deployment quite clearly in an interview with the Arabic-language Al Jazeera network. He said Abadi himself had asked for Turkey’s assistance in the military training of Iraqis; the training camp in Bashiqa was subsequently established. Erdogan then nervously took issue with the latest position of the Iraqi prime minister, saying, “Where were you and what were you doing while the Bashiqa camp was being constructed? You have been silent since. You are now taking [a negative] position in assessing the latest developments in the region.”
Erdogan, in the Al Jazeera interview, accused the Iranian and Iraqi governments of following “sectarian policies” in Iraq and Syria, and emphasized the security needs of Sunnis in the region. “Turkey is against sectarian politics. It is obvious who are involved in sectarianism. Who are they? Iran. Iraq. Today, Iraq, unfortunately, is cooperating with Iran in terms of sectarianism. The same cooperation is in force also in Syria. What is the underlying problem of Syria’s troubles? Again, sectarianism!” he said. Erdogan, speaking about Turkey’s latest move involving Mosul and the situation of Sunnis in the region, said, “At this moment, while such a step is taken, what would become of the situation of the Sunnis here in the region? There are Sunni Arabs, Sunni Turkmens and also Sunni Kurds. They all have the need for self-defense through train-and-equip efforts. All the steps taken [by Turkey] aim at that.”Davutoglu added an additional geopolitical dimension to the affair. In advocating close relations with Barzani's KRG, he said, “The Turkish soldiers are at Bashiqa for the stability of the region. Because we do not want to become neighbors with [IS] and for that Erbil has to be strong.”Apart from the need to have the KRG act as a “buffer” between Turkey and IS, the close relationship with Iraq's Kurdistan Democratic Party — boosted by Turkey's military presence at the gates of Mosul — gives an edge to Ankara to scuttle any semblance of Kurdish self-rule of a PKK-affiliate in northern and eastern Syria that would be a rival to Barzani in the pan-Kurdish movement. It is also another reflection of Turkish-Iranian rivalry on the Kurdish political landscape and over Mesopotamia. Iran, the second-largest natural gas provider to Turkey, announced that it halved its exports to right after the Mosul-Bashiqa affair. It could not be coincidental.
The shadow of history and the replay of Turkish-Iranian rivalry in Mesopotamia is present under the new circumstances, conditions and ever-changing regional alignments of the 21st century.

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