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Bible Quotations For Today
‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/27-32: "A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!’When the crowds were increasing, he began to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here! The people of Nineveh will rise up at the judgement with this generation and condemn it, because they repented at the proclamation of Jonah, and see, something greater than Jonah is here!

You are a priest for ever, according to the order of Melchizedek.
Letter to the Hebrews 07/1-17: "If perfection had been attainable through the levitical priesthood for the people received the law under this priesthood what further need would there have been to speak of another priest arising according to the order of Melchizedek, rather than one according to the order of Aaron? For when there is a change in the priesthood, there is necessarily a change in the law as well. Now the one of whom these things are spoken belonged to another tribe, from which no one has ever served at the altar. For it is evident that our Lord was descended from Judah, and in connection with that tribe Moses said nothing about priests. It is even more obvious when another priest arises, resembling Melchizedek, one who has become a priest, not through a legal requirement concerning physical descent, but through the power of an indestructible life. For it is attested of him, ‘You are a priest for ever, according to the order of Melchizedek.’".

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 07-08/15
Christian heavyweights seek to scupper Franjieh presidency/Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/December 07/15
Jordanian Newspaper Editor Jumana Ghanimat: Arab Countries Will Continue To Dream Of Canadian-Style Democracy, But Their Grim Reality Is Not Expected To Change/MEMRI/December 07/15
Continued conflict clogging up Renaissance Dam negotiations/Ayah Aman/Al-Monitor/December 07/15
More powers enter Mideast fray. But still no real strategy/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/December 07/15
ISIS problem can only be solved by regional Sunni powers/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December 07/15
Why should Muslims take responsibility for the extremists/H.A. Hellyer/Al Arabiya/December 07/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 07-08/15
California shooters may have planned multiple attacks: source
Both California shooters ‘radicalized for quite some time’: FBI
Donald Trump calls for end to Muslims entering the United States
California shooter attended women's madrassah in Pakistan
London tube stabbing suspect ‘had ISIS images on phone’
ISIS propaganda and ammunition found after France mosque closure
Obama vows to defeat ‘new phase of terrorist threat’
Three Injured in Blast at Moscow Bus Stop
Syria Accuses U.S.-Led Coalition of Killing Regime Troops
New Suspected U.S.-led Syria Raids Kill Dozens of Civilians
Kurds Plan Syria Summit after Exclusion from Saudi Meet
IS Earns $80 Million a Month but Starting to Struggle
Iraq Warns Turkey to Pull Forces, Ankara Says Unlikely
Saudi Executes Man Convicted of Killing Wife
Shift in Oil-Rich Venezuela as Opposition Wins Vote
Kerry Says Venezuelan Voters Showed 'Overwhelming Desire for Change'
Israeli Stabbed in Hebron, Palestinian Attacker Killed
Israeli Court Jails Palestinian MP for 15 Months

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 07-08/15
Al-Rahi Urges Dialogue to End War on 2nd Day of Syria Visit
Al-Rahi Says Has Invited Maronite Leaders to Bkirki Meeting
Report: Hariri's Initiative Calls for Ending Presidential Vacuum, 'Fortifying' Taef Accord
FPM Official Says Franjieh Can't 'Bypass' Other Maronite Leaders
LF and Mustaqbal Request Supporters to Stop War of Words
Shehayyeb Meets Franjieh, Says Communication Can Dissipate Objections over His Nomination
Crisis Cell Vows Efforts to Free IS-held Captives as Abou Faour Meets Families
STL Hosts French Minister of Justice
Two IS Militants who Plotted Attacks in Lebanon Arrested
Report: Franjieh-Aoun Meeting Possible this Week
Russian Jets Shell Gunmen Posts on Eastern Mountain Range
Oqab Saqr Could Make Beirut Return with Hariri
Report: Berri Slams Claims that 'Muslims Choosing Christian President'
Christian heavyweights seek to scupper Franjieh presidency

Al-Rahi Urges Dialogue to End War on 2nd Day of Syria Visit
Naharnet/December 07/15/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Monday called for "dialogue" among the warring parties in Syria as he urged Christians there to cling to their land and heritage despite the bloody conflict. “War can only stop through a good will for peace that would push all rivals to sit around a dialogue table,” said al-Rahi during a pastoral tour in the coastal Syrian city of Tartus, a bastion of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime. “Persevere through your faith and values and hold onto your unity. God does not accept tyranny and our God is the God of peace and justice,” al-Rahi added.
“It is important to maintain our unity and cling to our land, history and heritage, because we are required to witness for the values of the Bible in this land and for God's word,” he went on to say. During the day, al-Rahi presided at the Our Lady of Annunciation Cathedral in Tartus over a mass celebrating the enthronement of Joseph Toubji as the new Maronite archbishop of Aleppo. Earlier, the patriarch visited Latakia's diocese and met with its priests in the presence of Archbishop Antoine Shbeir, Papal Ambassador Mario Zenari and the bishops Boulos Sayah and Hanna Alwan. Al-Rahi was also welcomed by residents and school students in the towns of al-Sheikh Saad, al-Khrab and al-Khreibat. The patriarch had arrived on Sunday in Tartus. This is not al-Rahi's first wartime visit to the neighboring country. In June, the patriarch visited the capital Damascus to attend an inter-Christian summit at the Mariamite Cathedral of Damascus. The meeting was hosted by Greek Orthodox leader Youhanna X Yazigi. Al-Rahi had first visited Syria as patriarch in 2013 to take part in Yazigi's enthronement, a trip that sparked controversy in Lebanon and was criticized by the Syrian regime's opponents.
It was the first visit to Syria by a Maronite patriarch since Lebanon's independence in 1943, after the one that was carried out by the late Patriarch Antoun Arida during the French mandate.

Al-Rahi Says Has Invited Maronite Leaders to Bkirki Meeting
Naharnet/December 07/15/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi revealed Monday that he has invited the country's top four Maronite leaders to a meeting in Bkirki and that he is “still awaiting answers” from them. He voiced his remarks to LBCI television during a pastoral visit to the coastal Syrian city of Tartus.
He was referring to Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, former Kataeb Party chief Amin Gemayel and Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh. “All political blocs must take the presidential initiative seriously, especially that foreign countries are behind this initiative,” al-Rahi told LBCI. “Political and Christian forces must sit around a table to hold consultations and reach a domestic national decision on the figure that they want to nominate for the presidency,” he added. “They must sit around one table to assess things in a serious manner and take a comprehensive and responsible stance that involves all Lebanese,” the patriarch went on to say. Franjieh's chances to reach the Baabda Palace had recently made a dramatic surge in the wake of a Paris meeting between him and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. Hariri has also met in the French capital with Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel and Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat. Al-Rahi has met in recent days with Franjieh, Sami Gemayel and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil -- Aoun's son-in-law. The FPM, the LF and Kataeb have voiced objections or reservations over the possible nomination of Franjieh to the country's top Christian post and some of the three parties' officials have asked for “guarantees.”

Report: Hariri's Initiative Calls for Ending Presidential Vacuum, 'Fortifying' Taef Accord
Naharnet/December 07/15/Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri will unveil his political initiative when “all conditions for its approval are available,” reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Monday. It said that the initiative includes ending the presidential vacuum and fortifying the Taef Accord.
It also demands the start of a new political phase in Lebanon “aimed at creating national understandings that would emphasize stability and reactivate constitutional institutions away from attempts of obstruction.”“Hariri will announce his proposal at the time he deems appropriate,” prominent Mustaqbal sources told al-Joumhouria. The sources did not deny that differences exist between the Mustaqbal and Lebanese Forces over the initiative, particularly over movement leader MP Saad Hariri's potential nomination of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. “These differences do not mean that ties between the two sides will be severed,” they explained. “Contacts between them are ongoing as demonstrated by the recent visit of Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq to LF chief Samir Geagea in Maarab,” they continued. Geagea is a presidential candidate alongside his rival Change and Reform bloc head MP Michel Aoun. The sources added: “The Mustaqbal Movement has never shied away from backing Geagea and it had voted for him during the polls and its lawmakers have attended all electoral sessions, keeping in mind that the LF chief himself had declared that he is prepared to abandon his nomination if consensus is reached on another figure.”Franjieh has emerged as a presidential candidate in recent weeks as part of a political settlement aimed at ending the vacuum in the country's top post that started in May 2014 with the end of President Michel Suleiman's term and the failure of the political blocs to elect a successor. Several officials have voiced their indirect objection to Franjieh's nomination. Rumors of a rift between the Mustaqbal Movement and LF emerged in the wake of Hariri's nomination of Franjieh seeing as Geagea is a presidential candidate himself.

FPM Official Says Franjieh Can't 'Bypass' Other Maronite Leaders
Naharnet/December 07/15/Free Patriotic Movement official Mario Aoun stressed Monday that Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh cannot “bypass” the other three Maronite leaders in the country in order to reach the Baabda Palace, urging “corrective steps” from Franjieh regarding his ties with Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun. “General Michel Aoun is an essential and key candidate and he has not yet said that he has ceased to be a presidential nominee,” the FPM official told al-Jadeed television. “He was still a candidate when Mr. Suleiman Franjieh's nomination occurred without the knowledge of General Michel Aoun or any talks with him,” he noted. Aoun underlined that “any of the strong four candidates should not bypass the others to reach his goal.” “It is unacceptable for the process to be in this manner,” he emphasized. A Paris meeting last month between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri was behind launching the current momentum in the country regarding the presidential elections. The talks sparked intense speculation about a possible settlement that might open the doors of the Baabda Palace for Franjieh. Hariri has also met in Paris with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat and Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel. “Can a strong candidate remain strong if conditions were imposed on him?” Aoun wondered in his remarks to al-Jadeed. “We are awaiting 'corrective steps' from Suleiman Beik Franjieh to correct the moves that he has so far carried out,” he added. “We cherish him and he is still one of us. He remains an ally and a friend but a certain mistake might have been committed and it can be corrected,” Aoun urged. As for MP Michel Aoun's candidacy, the FPM official stressed that Aoun is “not so keen on his own nomination,” adding that “the issue is related to the proper representation of Christians.”“Would the other camp accept that General Aoun name the Sunni premier or the Shiite parliament speaker? Certainly not,” he added. He also noted that Franjieh's “northern popular base” cannot be compared to Aoun's representation across the country.
As for the FPM's relations with the Lebanese Forces, Aoun noted that “there are talks and coordination with the LF,” adding that “these two Christian parties are dismayed by the manner in which Franjieh's nomination happened.”“If Franjieh has guarantees, he can inform General Aoun of them, and the 'keys of the presidency' are in Rabieh,” al-Jadeed quoted Mario Aoun as saying.

LF and Mustaqbal Request Supporters to Stop War of Words
Naharnet/December 07/15/The Lebanese Forces General Secretariat and the al-Mustaqbal movement are trying to mend the rift that emerged against the backdrop of the latest presidential nominations, and have therefore asked on Monday their supporters to stop the war of words on social media.
The General Secretariat of the Lebanese forces issued a circular asking its supporters to abstain from venting their anger against the nomination of MP Suleiman Franjieh on social media. “We strongly urge our supporters and partisans to refrain from targeting the March 14 officials mainly (al-Mustaqbal movement chief) President Saad Hairri on their personal pages on social media,” a circular issued by the Lebanese Forces said. “Recently our supporters have posted stances on social media targeting leaders of March 14 alliance,” it added. On the other hand, al-Mustaqbal movement issued a similar statement.
The calls come amid a flurry of political talks in Paris between Hariri and Marada leader Franjieh, of the March 8 camp, that would see the nomination of the latter for the top state post. Lebanon has been without a president since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014. LF chief Geagea, himself a candidate of the March 14, has dispatched an indirect message to Hariri confirming adherence to the principles of March 14. Geagea's supporters have taken their anger on social media criticizing Hariri for nominating Franjieh, asking: “How would Hariri nominate someone who has close ties with the Syrian regime that is accused of committing assassinations in Lebanon since 2005?”For their part, Hariri's supporters replied, saying “al-Mustaqbal leader only cares about ending the vacuum at the presidential post and defusing tension.”Reports have also said that Geagea received a telephone call over the weekend from Hariri which he did not answer. They also said that Geagea could be ready to support MP Michel Aoun for the presidency just to hamper the nomination of Franjieh.

Shehayyeb Meets Franjieh, Says Communication Can Dissipate Objections over His Nomination
Naharnet/December 07/15/Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb held talks Monday with Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh in Bnashii and noted that “communication” among the various parties can dissipate the objections that surfaced in recent days over the latter's presidential nomination.
The visit had been scheduled “prior to the issue of the presidency and the seriousness of the settlement,” Shehayyeb said after the talks, noting that he was in Zgharta for a Middle East Airlines-sponsored forestation project. “Hopefully the election of a president will be the holidays gift to the Lebanese,” the minister added, describing Franjieh as a “key national figure who belongs to a major political family.” “All Lebanese agree on the need to protect Lebanon,” Shehayyeb, who is close to Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat, went on to say. He said there is “great hope” that the proposed presidential settlement would reach a happy ending “as soon as possible.” “If some objections have been voiced from here or there, I believe that communication can find solutions to everything and dialogue is essential amid the Arab-regional rapprochement over this initiative,” Shehayyeb added. A Paris meeting last month between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri was behind launching the current momentum in the country regarding the presidential elections. The talks sparked intense speculation about a possible settlement that might open the doors of the Baabda Palace for Franjieh.
Hariri has also met in Paris with Jumblat and Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel. Jumblat has meanwhile met with Franjieh in Beirut, promising to exert efforts to support his presidential nomination. Several Christian parties from both the March 8 and March 14 camps have voiced objections or reservations over Franjieh's nomination, such as the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and the Free Patriotic Movement.

Crisis Cell Vows Efforts to Free IS-held Captives as Abou Faour Meets Families
Naharnet/December 07/15/A ministerial crisis cell pledged Monday to exert “efforts in all directions” to secure the release of nine Lebanese servicemen held hostage by the extremist Islamic State group, several days after 16 Lebanese troops and policemen were freed in a swap deal between Lebanon and the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front. The statement was issued after a Grand Serail meeting that was chaired by Prime Minister Tammam Salam and attended by Deputy PM and Defense Minister Samir Moqbel, Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq, Health Minister Wael Abou Faour and General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim. The conferees discussed “the latest national achievement represented in the liberation of 16 servicemen who were in the captivity of a terrorist group, and the relief this achievement has left on all levels,” the statement said. “This step confirmed the authority of the state over all the affairs of Lebanon and the Lebanese and it would not have occurred had it not been for the meeting of all national efforts, the firmness and skill of the Lebanese negotiators, and the high level of cooperation among all security agencies,” the statement added.m The conferees vowed to “continue their efforts in all directions to secure the release of the nine servicemen who are still in captivity,” it said. Earlier in the day, Minister Abou Faour received the families of the captive servicemen and assured that the Lebanese state and the crisis cell will spare no effort to free the captives, the state-run National News Agency said.
The minister and the delegatio discussed the latest developments with the families and the progress made on that file. He said: “The families held a meeting previously with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat, which resulted in the release of the soldiers held by al-Nusra Front.”
“However the joy will never be complete before the rest of the soldiers are freed,” he added. Abou Faour also reiterated the PSP's commitment not to close the file until the servicemen are released. He concluded: “The state is keen through its government and premier and through the crisis cell to give the the necessary attention.”The servicemen were kidnapped in August 2014 during deadly battles between the Lebanese army and jihadists from al-Nusra and the IS in and around the northeastern border town of Arsal. The two groups are still entrenched in mountainous areas along the Lebanese-Syrian border.

STL Hosts French Minister of Justice
Naharnet/December 07/15/French Minister of Justice Christiane Taubira paid a courtesy visit to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon on Monday, as part of her one-day visit to the Netherlands that included discussions with Dutch officials. She was accompanied by the French Ambassador to the Netherlands, Laurent Pic, and a delegation from the Ministry of Justice, the STL said in a statement. STL President Judge Ivana Hrdličková, Prosecutor Norman Farrell, the Head of the Defense Office François Roux, and Deputy Registrar Amelie Zinzius, welcomed the minister and her delegation. During her visit, the minister focused on “the applicable law at the STL, the use of French as an official Tribunal language, and the benefits of the STL for the Lebanese people,” the STL said. On behalf of the STL, Judge Hrdličková expressed her “deep gratitude to Minister of Justice Taubira for France’s continued support.”
Hrdličková further highlighted “the benefits to the international community of the STL’s experience, incorporating the best practices of diverse legal traditions to ensure the highest standards of criminal justice." The minister and the delegation then toured the courtroom and were greeted by the STL staff members at the end of the visit. Set up in 2007, the court is the only international ad hoc tribunal with the jurisdiction to try an act of terror. It is specifically trying suspects charged with the murder of former premier Rafik Hariri, killed with 22 others in a massive suicide car bombing on the Beirut waterfront on February 14, 2005. Five suspected members of Hizbullah have been indicted by the court. Their trial in absentia opened in January 2014, but despite international warrants for their arrest, the five are yet to appear in court. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has dismissed the court as an American-Israeli scheme against his party, vowing that the accused will never be found.
Lebanon

Two IS Militants who Plotted Attacks in Lebanon Arrested
Naharnet/December 07/15/Security forces announced Monday the arrest of two Islamic State jihadists who had plotted to carry out attacks inside Lebanon. “The fugitive Jihad Ahmed al-Ghazi was arrested by the Intelligence Directorate in the North over his ties to terrorist groups led by the fugitives Mohammed Ahmed al-Satem, Oday Ahmed al-Moussa and others who move between Lebanon and Syria,” the army said in a statement. “They tried to help him enter Syria to fight alongside the terrorist groups there,” it added. The detainee confessed that under al-Satem's leadership, small groups were formed in the northern region of Wadi Khaled with the aim of targeting the Lebanese army. They sought to “attack troops and create an appropriate atmosphere for the entry of the IS group into Lebanon through setting up a security zone connected to Khirbet Daoud in order to seize control of Wadi Khaled,” the army statement said.
The IS cells “purchased weapons and prepared a number of caves to be launchpads for their operations,” it added. Among the arms they bought was a “mortar cannon aimed at targeting the army barracks in Wadi Khaled.” The detainee al-Ghazi also confessed that he was tasked with “carrying out a suicide bombing in Tripoli or Beirut.”“Along with Tareq Mohammed Obeid, they tried to enter into Arsal and then into its outskirts with the aim of joining IS militants there,” the army added. Meanwhile, the General Security announced the arrest of the Syrian M. M. on charges of “involvement in terrorist activities, belonging to the terrorist IS group, and recruiting militants to be sent to Syria to fight alongside the group.” “He also confessed to preparing to set up armed cells to carry out acts of sabotage in Lebanon in coordination with a Lebanese IS official in (Syria's) Raqa,” a General Security statement said.
The man also took part in “overseeing and coordinating the moves of the militants in the latest Tripoli battles against the Lebanese army, in addition to harboring terrorists fleeing the aforementioned clashes.”On Thursday, the army reportedly arrested four IS suspects after intercepting their van on the Zalka-Beirut highway. Dozens of suspects were arrested across the country in recent weeks. The massive crackdown followed an IS suicide bombing in the southern Beirut suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh that killed 44 people and wounded around 240 others.

Report: Franjieh-Aoun Meeting Possible this Week
Naharnet/December 07/15/A Hizbullah delegation did not pay Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun a visit last week with the aim of discussing the nomination of Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh for president, An Nahar daily quoted unnamed sources on Monday. “The stance of the Free Patriotic Movement is very well known and it will continue to nominate the candidacy of Aoun (for president) as a final strategic choice,” the sources close to the FPM told the daily. The sources who spoke on condition of anonymity confirmed that “the name of the candidate for the presidency is not the only matter at hand, but creating a list of understandings that restore the historic role of the Christians is.”The comments come amid a series of meetings expected to kick off this week, mainly a reported visit that Franjieh will make to Aoun at his residence in Rabieh to tackle the latest settlement that could see Franjieh nominated for the top state post.Aoun is the candidate of March 8 camp and a staunch ally of Hizbullah. The talks come over the backdrop of a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader Saad Hariri that was behind launching the current momentum in the country regarding the presidential elections.
The talks sparked intense speculation about a possible settlement that might open the doors of the Baabda Palace for Franjieh. Hariri has also met in Paris with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat and Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel. The possible nomination of Franjieh faces voices of dissent among the Kataeb Party, Lebanese Forces, and Change and Reform bloc.

Russian Jets Shell Gunmen Posts on Eastern Mountain Range
Naharnet/December 07/15/Russian jets shelled on Monday the positions of gunmen on the eastern mountain range, reported the National News Agency. It said that the sound of explosions could be heard in the border area with Syria on the outskirts of the northeastern border region of Arsal. The area is has been infiltrated by gunmen linked to the Syrian conflict. Russia joined in September the Syrian regime in combating the threat of extremists in the country. The shelling in the neighboring country is frequently heard in Lebanese border regions. Report:

Oqab Saqr Could Make Beirut Return with Hariri
Naharnet/December 07/15/MP Oqab Saqr will likely make his return to Lebanon with Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri, reported the daily An Nahar on Monday. Media reports have been anticipating the return of Hariri as part of a political initiative aimed at ending the deadlock and presidential vacuum in Lebanon. The two officials have been away from Lebanon over alleged security threats. Hariri had last paid a visit to Beirut in February to mark the tenth anniversary of his father's assassination. He left the country in 2011, shortly after the collapse of his government. Saqr has been outside of Lebanon from around that time.

Report: Berri Slams Claims that 'Muslims Choosing Christian President'
Naharnet/December 07/15/Speaker Nabih Berri dismissed the recent criticisms that the Muslim powers in Lebanon hold sway over naming presidential candidates in the country in the wake of an initiative launched by Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri to nominate Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president, reported the daily al-Mustaqbal on Monday. The speaker's visitors told the daily that “Berri considers such claims as a sectarian lie.” He instead stressed that Franjieh's nomination adheres to meetings held under the sponsorship of the Maronite patriarchate that brought together the four main Maronite powers in the country, Franjieh included. The gatherers at these meetings agreed that any one of them could be a presidential candidate, explained Berri according to his visitors on Sunday. These Christian figures are Franjieh, Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel, Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, and Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea. Media reports last week had said that there is disappointment among Christian powers that Hariri, Berri, and Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat had taken the initiative and name a presidential candidate without consulting them.
Franjieh emerged as a presidential candidate in recent weeks as part of a political settlement aimed at ending the vacuum in the country's top post that started in May 2014 with the end of President Michel Suleiman's term and the failure of the political blocs to elect a successor. Several officials have voiced their indirect objection to Franjieh's nomination.

Christian heavyweights seek to scupper Franjieh presidency
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/December 07/15
Both of Lebanon’s two most powerful Christian leaders – Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea – are determined to bury plans to elect rival
On the face of it, 50-year-old Marada Movement MP Sleiman Franjieh’s chances of becoming the next president of Lebanon look highly promising. The staunch ally of Hezbollah and Damascus has won the surprise endorsement of the Saudi-supported Future Movement; the ‘kingmaking’ Progressive Socialist Party; and the Maronite Patriarchate, the chief religious authority of the Christian community from which, by longstanding custom, the president is selected. On the international stage, beyond Saudi Arabia and Syria, Franjieh is reported to be seen favorably by France, Iran, and the United States, inter alia. Even some domestic Christian rivals profoundly opposed to Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, such as the Kataeb Party, have ostensibly offered olive branches, stating conditions under which they would assent to his candidacy. Behind the scenes, however, the two largest Christian parties – Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces (LF) – are livid at the prospect of Franjieh’s election, and are working to derail any and all dealmaking to that end as a matter of first priority, according to knowledgeable observers with whom NOW spoke.
“The major Christian parties are not just reluctant – there’s no way [they’ll accept Franjieh],” said Kamal Yazigi, political science professor at the American University of Beirut and a founding member of the FPM. “Aoun is not thinking at all of withdrawing from the race.”
The same holds for Geagea, according to an advisor to the leader of a Christian party, who spoke to NOW on condition of anonymity. The LF leader has “snubbed all visits from the Saudi ambassador” and “refused calls from Saad al-Hariri,” the Future Movement leader nominally allied to Geagea who initiated the Franjieh proposal when he invited the MP to meet him in Paris in November.
“This is information, not analysis: Geagea’s not going to cave in,” said the advisor.
Both leaders have distinct, if somewhat overlapping reasons for opposing Franjieh so vehemently. While Aoun is also an ally of Hezbollah and Assad, his FPM holds more seats in parliament than any other Christian-majority party, and thus he believes he is “entitled” to the presidency as the most “representative” Maronite politician, Yazigi told NOW. Other analysts phrased it more bluntly. “It’s a matter of personal ego,” said Michel Hajji Georgiou, commentator at L’Orient-Le Jour newspaper. “In his old age, he sees the presidency as a couronnement of all his political past; he sees it as the ultimate accomplishment that he must tend to. He won’t withdraw from the race, because he’s like Noah, he thinks it’s après moi le déluge.”As for the hawkishly anti-Hezbollah Geagea, his hostility to Franjieh doesn’t merely stem from their being diametrically opposed on almost all significant political questions. He and Franjieh also happen to be provincial rivals, both hailing from nearby rural mountain towns in north Lebanon, noted the political party advisor. Moreover, the pair have deeply personal differences dating to the civil war era, with Franjieh blaming Geagea for the murder of his parents and sister in a 1978 raid on the family residence in the northern town of Ehden (a crime for which Geagea apologized in 2008, though he denied being personally present at the time). When parliament met in a failed attempt to vote for a president in April 2014, with Geagea a declared candidate, unknown MPs left protest votes bearing names of people allegedly killed by the LF leader, including Franjieh’s sister Jihan.
Indeed, so opposed is Geagea to Franjieh’s candidacy that LF MP Antoine Zahra remarked Sunday that Geagea would sooner swallow his pride and vote for his other adversary, Aoun, than lend his parliamentary bloc’s votes to Franjieh. Geagea’s and Aoun’s weight combined would form “a Christian consensus that could block Franjieh,” said Hajji Georgiou, albeit at significant cost to Geagea in terms of his relations with the Future Movement, Saudi Arabia, and the Lebanese Sunni community in general. “I don’t think it’s his first choice, but […] he might be forced to do it. If it’s between Aoun and Franjieh, I guess he would choose Aoun,” said Hajji-Georgiou. If, however, the LF’s and FPM’s non-Christian allies were hypothetically to try and persuade them to agree to Franjieh’s election, the concessions that would have to be offered would be considerable, NOW was told. “The price to pay would be huge,” said Hajji Georgiou, and could include nominating Aoun’s son-in-law, former head of the army’s commando unit Gen. Shamel Roukoz, as defense minister, as well as ensuring a prominent cabinet position for another Aoun son-in-law, current Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. Alternatively, the political party advisor told NOW, “We’ve heard Aoun was promised six ministerial portfolios, including interior, defense, and telecoms, along with nominating the army head.” Media reports have also suggested the possibility of a new electoral law, long demanded by Christian parties who complain the current law effectively under-enfranchises them. Still, no source NOW spoke to was convinced any concessions were likely to bring the pair to relent. “Electoral law – that’s secondary,” said Yazigi. “Aoun wants to be president […] I don’t think you can bargain with him and bribe him with things like that.”
Alex Rowell tweets @disgraceofgod

California shooters may have planned multiple attacks: source
By Reuters, Washington Sunday, 6 December 2015/U.S. investigators are increasingly convinced the San Bernardino shooters may have been planning more attacks, given the quantity of weapons in their possession, a senior U.S. government source said on Sunday.Investigators were still uncertain about possible targets that may have been identified by Tashfeen Malik, 29, and her U.S.-born husband, Syed Rizwan Farook, 28, the source said. The couple killed 14 people and injured 21 on Wednesday when they opened fire on a gathering of public employees in Southern California. The source also said investigators do not believe Enrique Marquez, the man suspected of providing weapons to the couple, is linked to terrorism but are still investigating.

Both California shooters ‘radicalized for quite some time’: FBI
AFP, San Bernardino Tuesday, 8 December 2015/The husband and wife who killed 14 people in last week’s shooting rampage in California were both radicalized and “for quite some time,” the FBI official in charge of the investigation said Monday. David Bowdich, the FBI’s assistant director in charge of the Los Angeles field office, said investigators were still trying to determine how and by whom Syed Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik were radicalized before the December 2 shooting. “But I will say this - as the investigation has progressed, we have learned and believe that both subjects were radicalized and have been for quite some time,” he said. The couple had taken target practice at Los Angeles-area shooting ranges, and once “within days” of the massacre, Bowdich told reporters. Farook and Malik left their baby daughter at home on Wednesday before heading to the Inland Regional Center in San Bernardino east of Los Angeles, where some of Farook’s colleagues had gathered for a year-end party. The couple opened fire, killing 14 and wounding 21 others. They were killed hours later in a wild firefight with police.

Donald Trump calls for end to Muslims entering the United States
By Ginger Gibson Reuters, Washington Tuesday, 8 December 2015/Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said a “total and complete shutdown” of all Muslims entering the United States should be put into place until Congress can act. In a statement distributed to the press, Trump said that polling shows a “hatred” by Muslims toward Americans that could result in more attacks.“Without looking at the various polling data, it is obvious to anybody the hatred is beyond comprehension,” Trump said in a statement. “Where this hatred comes from and why we will have to determine. Until we are able to determine and understand this problem and the dangerous threat it poses, our country cannot be the victims of horrendous attacks by people that believe only in Jihad, and have no sense of reason or respect for human life.”

California shooter attended women's madrassah in Pakistan
AFP, Multan (Pakistan) Monday, 7 December 2015/The woman who with her husband shot dead 14 people in California last week attended one of Pakistan’s most high-profile religious seminaries for women, a teacher at the madrassa told AFP Monday. Tashfeen Malik, 29, studied at the Al-Huda Institute in Multan, which targets middle-class women seeking to come closer to Islam and also has offices in the U.S., the UAE, India and the UK, the teacher at the seminary who gave her name only as Muqadas said. The institute has no known extremist links, though it has come under fire in the past from critics who say its ideology echoes that of the Taliban. Syed Farook (L) and his wife, Tashfeen Malik (R), were hailed as "soldiers" of ISIS after they shot dead 14 people at a social services centre in San Bernardino. (AFP) Malik and her husband Syed Farook, 28, went on a killing spree at a social services center in San Bernardino, an act praised by ISIS who hailed the couple as “soldiers” of its self-proclaimed caliphate.Investigators suspect that Malik, who went to the United States on a fiancée’s visa and spent extended periods of time in both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, may have radicalized her husband. The probe is trying to establish if she had contact with radicals in either country. “It was a two-year course, but she did not finish it,” the teacher Muqadas said. “She was a good girl. I don’t know why she left and what happened to her.” The teacher did not say when Malik studied at the seminary, but fellow classmates at the Bahauddin Zakariya University said she had attended the madrassa after classes at the university, which she attended from 2007-2013. An administration official at the academy in Multan said he could neither confirm nor deny that Malik had studied there, and said he would discuss the issue with management. “But we have nothing to do with it (the shooting) and are not responsible for our students’ personal acts,” he added. One of Malik’s former classmates at the Bahauddin Zakariya University in Multan, where she studied pharmacology, told AFP she had attended the madrassa after classes, saying she “drastically changed” during her time there. “Gradually she became more serious and strict,” said the student, requesting anonymity. A second university student who also requested anonymity confirmed the account.

London tube stabbing suspect ‘had ISIS images on phone’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Monday, 7 December 2015/A suspect charged with attempting to kill a man at a London Underground train station had images associated with Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants on his mobile phone, a court heard Monday. Muhaydin Mire, 29, appeared at Westminster Magistrates Court in London charged with the attempted murder of a 56-year-old man at Leytonstone station in east London on Saturday. Prosecutors allege that the attack was an act of terrorism and images and flags associated with ISIS were allegedly found on his phone. One man suffered serious but not life-threatening injuries in the attack at Leytonstone underground station while a second person suffered minor injuries. Eyewitnesses said the attacker had reportedly shouted out "This is for Syria!" Britain is on its second-highest security alert level of "severe", meaning a militant attack is considered highly likely, though not imminent, mainly because of the threat posed by ISIS militants in Syria and Iraq. Last week, British war planes joined air strikes for the first time against ISIS fighters in Syria.(With Reuters and AFP)

ISIS propaganda and ammunition found after France mosque closure
AFP, Paris Monday, 7 December 2015/Kalashnikov ammunition and ISIS propaganda videos were seized in raids following the closure of a mosque in the Paris suburbs, French authorities said. The prayer hall in Lagny-sur-Marne, around 30km east of the capital, was shut down last Wednesday following a large-scale police operation. Associated with the traditionalist Salafist branch of Islam, it is the third mosque in France to be closed after the coordinated extremist attacks on Paris on November 13. The prefect - the highest representative of the state - in the Seine-and-Marne department said on Sunday “7.62mm ammunition for a Kalashnikov rifle and propaganda videos” for ISIS had been found in raids linked to the closure of the prayer hall. The locations of the raids were not given. A revolver and extremist documents were also found during searches at the homes of the mosque leaders, Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said previously. A total of 22 travel bans and nine house arrests for “radicalized individuals” have been issued as a result of the operation. Police also found recordings of religious chants “glorifying the martyrs of jihad linked to the terrorist organization Jabhat al-Nusra”, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, the prefecture added. The recordings were found among a wealth of teaching material for youngsters in an undeclared madrassa, or religious school. “No request was made to open a private school,” the prefecture said in its statement. Mohammed Ramdane, president of the local Muslim association in Lagny, had criticized the closure of the prayer hall on Wednesday, saying: “Nothing has been found. Nothing is hidden, we don’t hide anything.”

Obama vows to defeat ‘new phase of terrorist threat’
Reuters, Washington Monday, 7 December 2015/United States President Barack Obama has laid out the most sweeping defense yet of his strategy to defeat ISIS, but offered no U.S. policy shift to confront what he called a “new phase” in the terrorist threat after a mass shooting in California. In a rare Oval Office address on Sunday night, Obama sought to calm a U.S. public increasingly jittery about the fight against extremist militancy that once appeared to be waged overseas. His remarks failed to quiet Republican critics who have long accused him of underestimating the militants’ strength and staying power. Speaking in a measured tone, Obama used his 14-minute nationally televised appearance to draw a careful line about what he would and would not do. He pledged, for example, to “hunt down terrorist plotters” anywhere they are. But he insisted: “We should not be drawn once more into a long and costly ground war in Iraq or Syria.”Obama spoke just four days after U.S.-born Syed Rizwan Farook, 28, and his Pakistani wife, Tashfeen Malik, 29, opened fire on a holiday party for civil servants in San Bernardino, California, killing 14 people. The pair were killed hours later in a shootout with police. Obama condemned the attack as “an act of terrorism designed to kill innocent people.” But he also said San Bernardino showed that “the terrorist threat has evolved into a new phase” as ISIS used the Internet to “poison the minds” of potential assailants. Obama also made a connection between national security and the need for gun control following America’s latest mass shooting. The FBI is investigating the paramilitary-style attack in California as inspired by ISIS, which controls swaths of Syria and Iraq and has shown an expanded reach beyond its Middle East strongholds, including complicity in the Nov. 13 assaults in Paris that killed 130 people. But Obama, whose restraint contrasted sharply with French President Francois Hollande’s impassioned words after the Paris attacks when he vowed a “merciless” response, said there was no evidence the California assault was directed by a militant group overseas or part of a broader conspiracy at home. Nevertheless, Obama sought to show his administration was on top of the crisis, despite new questions raised about the country’s defenses against homegrown extremism. “The threat from terrorism is real but we will overcome it,” Obama said.

Three Injured in Blast at Moscow Bus Stop
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/Three people were injured on Monday night when an improvised explosive device detonated at a Moscow bus stop, TASS state news agency said. Police in the Russian capital confirmed to AFP that "an explosion took place at a bus stop on Pokrovka Road," in the city center. "Security forces are establishing the circumstances and the causes of the explosion," a police spokesman said without giving further details. TASS quoted a police source as saying: "An improvised explosive device exploded at the bus stop, causing three injuries." Two of the injured were women who were taken to hospital, the source said, without saying how badly they were injured. Smashed glass could be seen at the bus stop and several police cars, fire engines and an ambulance were at the scene, an AFP journalist said.

Syria Accuses U.S.-Led Coalition of Killing Regime Troops
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/Syria expressed outrage Monday after a suspected U.S.-led coalition strike for the first time killed regime troops, but the coalition denied its warplanes hit an army base.In a letter to the United Nations Security Council and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Syria's foreign ministry condemned what it called a "flagrant aggression" that killed at least three soldiers late on Sunday. But a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition said its only strikes in the area on Sunday were some 55 kilometers (35 miles) southeast of the Syrian army base. "The Syrian Arab Republic strongly condemns this flagrant aggression by the US-led coalition forces, which blatantly violates the objectives of the U.N. charter," the foreign ministry said in the letter."The Syrian foreign ministry demands the U.N. Security Council act immediately in the face of this aggression and take appropriate measures to prevent its recurrence," the letter added. It said three Syrian soldiers were killed and 13 wounded in strikes by four coalition planes on an army camp in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor. A Syrian military source and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor, said four soldiers had been killed and 13 injured in the strike, near the town of Ayyash. The military source told AFP on condition of anonymity that the attack happened on Sunday night and also damaged two tanks at the military base. He said the strikes hit several buildings used as weapons depots and an army training camp.The Observatory said it was the first time a U.S.-led coalition strike had killed Syrian government troops. "Regime forces have never previously been hit by raids from the international coalition, which was targeting jihadist bases and oil tankers in Deir Ezzor," said Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman. Much of Deir Ezzor province is under the control of the Islamic State group, which is regularly targeted there by the U.S.-led coalition, but the regime remains present in small areas, including in the provincial capital.
The coalition began air strikes in Syria in September 2014, expanding a campaign against IS that began in neighbouring Iraq. A spokesman for the coalition denied that it was behind the alleged strikes, saying its warplanes carried out no raids in the area on Sunday. "We've seen those Syrian reports but we did not conduct any strikes in that part of Deir Ezzor yesterday. So we see no evidence," Colonel Steve Warren told AFP. "We struck 55 kilometers away from the area that the Syrians say was struck. That was the only area in Deir Ezzor we struck yesterday," he added. "There were no human beings in the area that we struck yesterday, all we struck was a wellhead."Brett McGurk, President Barack Obama's special envoy to the coalition, also dismissed the claims on Twitter. "Reports of coalition involvement are false," he said. The Syrian government has regularly criticized the U.S.-led strikes as ineffective and illegal because they are not coordinated with regime forces, and the ministry said the Deir Ezzor incident was further evidence of the coalition's failings. "The US coalition lacks the seriousness and credibility to effectively combat terrorism," the ministry said. Staunch regime ally Moscow began its own aerial campaign in Syria on September 30 and coordinates its air strikes with government troops. The incident came as Obama pledged to destroy IS and hunt down its followers at home and abroad in a rare address from the Oval Office. The speech followed a shooting rampage in California last week that saw an apparently radicalised couple kill 14 people. Obama pledged that the United States would "hunt down terrorist plotters in any country where it is necessary." But he said he would not be "drawn once more into a long and costly ground war in Iraq and Syria," saying that was what IS sought. "They know they can't defeat us on the battlefield... but they also know that if we occupy foreign lands, they can maintain insurgencies for years, killing thousands of our troops and draining our resources, and using our presence to draw new recruits," he said. Elsewhere, Syrian media said three people were killed and five injured in rebel rocket fire that hit near the now-closed Russian consulate in Aleppo city.

New Suspected U.S.-led Syria Raids Kill Dozens of Civilians
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/Suspected U.S.-led coalition air strikes killed at least 26 civilians in a Syrian village Monday, piling pressure on the alliance after allegations another bombing raid left regime soldiers dead. The coalition has been bombarding the Islamic State group for more than a year in Syria and neighboring Iraq, where the jihadists have declared a self-styled caliphate. But according to a monitoring group, strikes on Monday on the village of Al-Khan in northeastern Syria only left civilians dead. Rami Abdel Rahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said IS is in control of Al-Khan but is only on its outskirts, "which is why all of the deaths were civilians". The death toll included at least seven children and four women, he said, adding that it was likely to rise as more than a dozen civilians were still missing under rubble. A spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition said he had no details yet about the raid, but that a "credibility assessment" would review claims of civilian deaths. Last month, the U.S. said four civilians were "likely" to have been killed in strikes against IS in Iraq. And in November 2014, it admitted accidentally killing two children in a strike in Syria. The al-Khan strike came with the coalition already under pressure over allegations it carried out a raid the previous day that killed Syrian soldiers, in the first such case. In a letter to the U.N. Security Council and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Syria accused the coalition of targeting an army camp in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor on Sunday, killing three soldiers and wounding 13. The foreign ministry letter condemned the attack as "a flagrant aggression."
'No evidence'
The Observatory said four soldiers died in the first incident of U.S.-led strikes killing Syrian troops. A Syrian military source gave the same toll, and said the attack late Sunday hit several buildings used as weapons depots and an army training camp, damaging two tanks. But a coalition spokesman said its only strikes in the area on Sunday were on an oil wellhead some 55 kilometers (35 miles) southeast of the army base. "We've seen those Syrian reports but we did not conduct any strikes in that part of Deir Ezzor yesterday. So we see no evidence," Colonel Steve Warren told AFP. "We struck 55 kilometers away from the area that the Syrians say was struck. That was the only area in Deir Ezzor we struck yesterday," he added. "There were no human beings in the area that we struck yesterday, all we struck was a wellhead." Much of Deir Ezzor is under IS control, but the regime still has a presence in small areas, including in the provincial capital. The province's oil has been a major source of IS funding, but on Monday analysis firm IHS said the group was having trouble making ends meet due to air strikes on its oil infrastructure. IHS estimated IS' overall monthly income to be about $80 million (75 million euros) as of late 2015, around half of it from levies and confiscations. But it noted the group also had significant costs because it administers large swathes of territory. Coalition 'not serious' The Syrian government has regularly criticized the U.S.-led strikes as ineffective and illegal because they are not coordinated with regime forces. "The U.S. coalition lacks the seriousness and credibility to effectively combat terrorism," the foreign ministry said. Staunch regime ally Moscow began its own aerial campaign in Syria on September 30 and coordinates its strikes with Damascus. On Sunday, U.S. President Barack Obama vowed to destroy IS and hunt down its followers at home and abroad. It followed a shooting rampage in California last week that saw an apparently radicalized couple kill 14 people. While pledging to "hunt down terrorist plotters in any country", Obama also said he would not be "drawn once more into a long and costly ground war in Iraq and Syria." "They know they can't defeat us on the battlefield... but they also know that if we occupy foreign lands, they can maintain insurgencies for years, killing thousands of our troops and draining our resources, and using our presence to draw new recruits," he said. Elsewhere, Syrian media said four people were killed in rebel rocket fire near the now-closed Russian consulate in Aleppo city.

Kurds Plan Syria Summit after Exclusion from Saudi Meet
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/Syrian Kurdish factions will host a two-day conference from Tuesday on a vision for Syria's future, after being excluded from a meeting of opposition groups in Saudi Arabia.Opposition and Kurdish sources said the conference would be held in northeast Syria and include Kurds, the Assyrian Democratic Party, Arab figures and religious leaders from various parts of Syria. Kurdish conference organizer Sihanuk Dibo said political and military forces would meet in Al-Malikiyeh, a town in Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province.He said the overlap with the Riyadh meeting which is expected to open Wednesday was "unintentional", but it comes after Kurdish political figures protested their exclusion from the Saudi-hosted talks. The Saudi foreign ministry has said that all ethnic groups were invited to the Riyadh talks, which are aimed at hashing out a common platform ahead of potential negotiations with the Syrian regime. But a spokesman for Syria's leading Kurdish political faction, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), confirmed on Monday that they still had received no invitation to the summit. Dibo said the Hasakeh talks would discuss Syria's future political system -- which "must be decentralized" -- as well as "a constitutional and just solution for the national rights of the Kurdish people." Abdel Salam Ahmad, another conference organiser, said the meeting would aim to "develop a single political vision and a political body capable of representing the Syrian people."The National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change, a domestic opposition group that will also be present at the Riyadh talks, will also attend, its spokesman Munzer Khaddam said. And Haytham Manna, co-founder of the opposition coalition Cairo Conference, told AFP that members of his grouping had withdrawn from the Riyadh talks and would instead attend those in Hasakeh. Manna said Saudi Arabia had invited Ahrar al-Sham, an Islamist group allied with al-Qaida's Syria affiliate, and was sidelining moderate opposition factions.The PYD's armed branch, the People's Protection Units (YPG), are also not invited to the Saudi meeting. Also excluded is the new Syrian Democratic Forces alliance, which groups the YPG with smaller Arab and Christian forces that are fighting the Islamic State group with U.S. support. The YPG is considered the most effective group fighting IS in Syria, but key opposition backer Turkey deems it a branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party, which it designates a "terrorist" organization. The PYD has dismissed the Riyadh talks as "unfair... because it does not represent the full makeup of the Syrian people.""We are not concerned with the output from the Riyadh conference and we will act like it never happened. No one, whoever they may be, can impose on us any decision in which we did not take part," it said.

IS Earns $80 Million a Month but Starting to Struggle
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/The Islamic State group is pulling in some $80 million a month, mainly from levies and confiscations, but is struggling financially as strikes hit its oil infrastructure, analysis firm IHS said Monday. In a new report, IHS Conflict Monitor said that IS, unlike other jihadist groups such as al-Qaida, does not need to rely on foreign funding as it can count on revenues from the large parts of Syria and Iraq under its control. Using open source intelligence including social media and sources inside the countries, IHS said it estimates the group's overall monthly income to be around $80 million (75 million euros) as of late 2015. About half the revenues come from levies and confiscations, with IS slapping a 20 percent charge on all services, IHS said. Some 43 percent comes from oil sales and the rest from drug smuggling, electricity sales and donations. "IS controls the state so they tax the population, confiscate property, can produce income from state-run businesses and from oil and gas. Other terrorist groups don't have that," said Columb Strack, senior analyst at the London-based IHS. But other groups also do not have significant territory to rule, so "it's not like they are making $80 million and spending all of that on weapons and building bombs," he told AFP. IS seized control of significant parts of Syria and Iraq last year, declaring a self-styled Islamic "caliphate" and committing widespread atrocities. A U.S.-led coalition launched air strikes against the group in Iraq in August 2014 and in Syria a month later, and Moscow launched its own strikes in Syria in September this year. The group has not followed its sweeping offensive of 2014 with other major gains and IHS said it is now having trouble making ends meet. "There are early indications that the group is struggling to balance its budget, with reports of cuts to fighters' salaries, price hikes on electricity and other basic services, and the introduction of new agricultural taxes," IHS said. It said the increasing targeting of oil infrastructure, including wells and tanker trucks, by U.S.-led coalition and Russian warplanes was starting to have effect. "Air strikes have significantly degraded the group's refining capacity and ability to transport oil via tanker convoys," IHS said. Strack said IS was already starting to systematically charge residents for leaving its territory and, as it faces continued pressure, will be looking for other ways to raise funds. "They can also try to raise the price of electricity, mobile phone networks, Internet and all kind of public services they are expected to provide," he said. "But people are already struggling to pay. It's going to be a lot harder on the populations living within IS territories."

Iraq Warns Turkey to Pull Forces, Ankara Says Unlikely
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/Baghdad warned Ankara on Monday that time is running out to remove forces it sent to northern Iraq without permission, but Turkey indicated it was unlikely to do so. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said there were "only 24 hours left" of the 48 that Iraq gave Turkey to remove tanks and soldiers sent to a base near Mosul. And Abadi visited the country's air force headquarters, saying: "We must be prepared and ready to defend Iraq and its sovereignty," according to his office. "The air force has the capability... to protect Iraq and its borders from any threat it faces," the premier said. But despite the tough talk by Abadi, who is struggling to assert Iraq's sovereignty while receiving foreign assistance against the Islamic State group, Baghdad's air force is hopelessly outgunned by Turkey and its realistic recourse is limited to diplomacy. A senior Turkish official said Monday that Ankara was unlikely to withdraw the forces, which number between 150 and 300 soldiers backed by 20 tanks, that were deployed to a base in the Bashiqa area, near IS's Iraqi hub Mosul. "We expect them to remain," the official said, though "it will depend on discussions." Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari clarified Monday that the demand for the withdrawal applied only to the recent deployment and not to Turkish trainers, who have been working with forces in the country's north for some time. "The Iraqi demand (for the withdrawal) is only related to the violation recorded by the presence of Turkish armed forces without coordination with Iraq," Jaafari told a joint news conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier. "The advisers are another issue; there are advisers from a number of countries and we accepted the principle of advisers but not the principle of ground forces entering Iraqi territory," Jaafari said. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has sought to downplay the recent deployment as "routine rotation activity" associated with the training effort, and as "reinforcement against security risks".
Oil smuggling allegations
"This is not a new camp," but rather a pre-existing "training facility established to support local volunteer forces' fight against terrorism," Davutoglu said. While Abadi has repeatedly said Iraq needs all the help it can get to fight IS, he is walking a fine line between receiving that support and projecting sovereignty.
Taking a strong stance on Turkey is what "Abadi has to do to avoid being thrown out of office and (to) stay alive," said Kirk Sowell, a Jordan-based political risk analyst who is the publisher of Inside Iraqi Politics. "He is so weak, so under pressure on multiple fronts, and Shiite Arab opposition to the Turkish project so strong, he has no choice," Sowell said. "Abadi is kept in office by divisions among his critics, but they would crucify him if he were seen as acquiescing in the foundation of either American or Turkish bases on Iraqi soil, anywhere in Iraq." On Monday, Abadi joined Russia and Iran in linking Turkey with oil smuggling by IS, which overran large areas of Iraq last year and also holds major territory in neighboring Syria. During a meeting with Steinmeier, Abadi stressed the "importance of stopping oil smuggling by (IS) terrorist gangs, the majority of which is smuggled via Turkey," his office said. Russia has accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family of involvement in the IS oil trade, to which he responded that Russia was in fact involved. Iranian media then picked up Russia's claims, prompting Erdogan to lash out at his Iranian counterpart. And Mohsen Rezaie, secretary of Iran's Expediency Council, said Iranian military advisers on the ground in Iraq and Syria had images of IS oil trucks going to Turkey. The U.S. has meanwhile said that IS oil smuggling through Turkey is not significant, prompting Moscow to accuse Washington of a cover-up.

Jordan Jails Islamist Preacher for 'Inciting Hatred'
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/A Jordanian court on Monday sentenced an Islamist preacher to two years in jail for "inciting hatred against the regime" online, a judicial source said. Iyad Qunaibi, a Jordanian born in Kuwait in 1975, was arrested in mid-June for posting on his Facebook page an audio message entitled "Jordan on the brink of the abyss" critical of government policies. In it he criticized Jordanian relations with Israel -- the two neighbors are bound by a peace treaty -- and slammed the "Westernization" of Jordanian society. Qunaibi's lawyer said the sentence -- delivered by the state security court, a military tribunal -- was harsh and "unexpected" and that he would appeal.

Saudi Executes Man Convicted of Killing Wife
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/Saudi Arabia on Monday executed a man convicted of killing his wife, adding to a toll which rights group Amnesty International says is the kingdom's highest in two decades. Hawas al-Shammry, a Saudi, was put to death for stabbing his Saudi wife to death after a dispute, the interior ministry said in a statement. Authorities carried out the sentence in Rafha, in the kingdom's north. According to AFP tallies, Shammry is the 148th local or foreigner put to death this year, against 87 for all of 2014. London-based Amnesty says the number of executions in Saudi Arabia this year is the highest since 192 people were put to death in 1995. The toll has rarely exceeded 90 annually in recent years, it said. Reasons for the surge are unclear. Over the last few weeks, however, there has been a marked drop in executions, all of which are reported by the official Saudi Press Agency. Rights experts have raised concerns about the fairness of trials in the kingdom but Saudi Arabia's interior ministry says the death penalty is a deterrent to crime. The sentences are usually carried out by beheading with a sword. Amnesty says Saudi Arabia had the world's third-highest number of executions last year, far behind China and Iran, and ahead of Iraq and the United States. Under the kingdom's strict Islamic legal code, murder, drug trafficking, armed robbery, rape and apostasy are all punishable by death.

Shift in Oil-Rich Venezuela as Opposition Wins Vote
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/Venezuela's opposition won control of congress for the first time in 16 years Monday as voters punished the socialist government for an economic crisis and insecurity in the oil-rich nation. President Nicolas Maduro promptly accepted the defeat, a blow to his leadership and the "revolution" of "21st century socialism" launched by his late predecessor Hugo Chavez. The result was a triumph for the center-right opposition, which has struggled for years for a foothold and has seen many of its leaders jailed. The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) coalition won a majority of 99 out of 167 seats in the state legislature, the head of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Tibisay Lucena, announced shortly after midnight, five hours after polls closed. Fireworks erupted over the capital Caracas as opposition supporters celebrated. "Venezuela has won," tweeted Henrique Capriles, leader of one of the parties in MUD. It was unclear, however, how far the MUD will be able to push its advantage in congress to force a change of course or even to get rid of Maduro, who vowed to push on with his socialist programs. "We have come with our morals and our ethics to recognize these adverse results, to accept them and to say to our Venezuela that the constitution and democracy have triumphed," the 53-year-old said in a televised address. "We have lost a battle today, but the struggle to build a new society is just beginning."Maduro's United Socialist Party of Venezuela won 46 seats in the single-chamber National Assembly, Lucena said. The results for 22 other seats have yet to be confirmed. Maduro called for the opposition to "live together" with his side. He softened his tone from before the elections when he had vowed to hold onto power "no matter how." After warnings of a repeat of last year's deadly riots that left 43 people dead, his acceptance of defeat seemed aimed at calming tensions -- though he stuck to his political position."A counter-revolution has triumphed, which has imposed its own way, its war," he said, in reference to what he alleges is a U.S.-backed "economic war" against Venezuela by businesses.
Maduro's supporters fear an opposition-dominated congress will stop approving his social spending programs. Hit by falling prices for the oil exports on which it relies, the country of 30 million is in an economic crisis, with shortages of basic foods and supplies. Voters also complained of insecurity in a country ranked by the United Nations as having the second-highest murder rate in the world. Venezuela has the globe's biggest oil reserves but also widespread poverty. Chavez's election as president in 1999 marked the start of an era of powerful left-wing governments across Latin America. Now some political analysts wonder whether Sunday's result could reflect a broader rightward political shift in the region. Argentines last month voted out their leftist president Cristina Kirchner. "Change has begun today in Venezuela," said MUD's executive secretary, Jesus Torrealba. He joined hands with another prominent face in the opposition, Lilian Tintori. Her husband Leopoldo Lopez was jailed last year by Maduro after being convicted of inciting violence in the riots. A prosecutor in the case later said false evidence was used against him and his supporters say he is a political prisoner. Lopez's fate will be a delicate issue in the new power dynamic in Caracas. The opposition hope to use their legislative weight to free their jailed allies. Some leaders and analysts had warned radicals within the MUD would take to the streets, but opposition leaders called for peaceful change. "We do not want violence," Tintori said.

Kerry Says Venezuelan Voters Showed 'Overwhelming Desire for Change'
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/A clear victory for Venezuela's opposition in weekend elections showed that voters had an "overwhelming desire for a change," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Monday, calling for dialogue in the oil-rich, cash-poor country. "The United States congratulates the people of Venezuela for making their voices heard in a peaceful and democratic way on election day," Kerry said in a statement. "Venezuelan voters expressed their overwhelming desire for a change in the direction of their country. Dialogue among all parties in Venezuela is necessary to address the social and economic challenges facing the country." Kerry also said the United States -- which has fraught ties with the governments of leftist Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro -- stood at the ready to support the process "together with others in the international community." Venezuela's opposition won control of the congress in Sunday's poll from Maduro's PSUV party. It is the first time in 16 years that the PSUV will not control the National Assembly. Maduro conceded defeat and called for "coexistence" between the opposition and his party, as Venezuela struggles in the throes of an economic crisis, with shortages of basic foods and supplies. The U.S. secretary of state urged authorities to "continue to tabulate and publish voting results in a timely and transparent fashion."

Israeli Stabbed in Hebron, Palestinian Attacker Killed
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/A Palestinian stabbed and seriously wounded an Israeli near a flashpoint holy site in the West Bank city of Hebron on Monday and was shot dead by security forces, Israeli police said. The attack occurred around a border police post near the Tomb of the Patriarchs, known to Muslims as the Ibrahimi Mosque. Border police opened fire on the attacker. It was the latest in more than two months of Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks. Hebron has been the focus of much of the violence, with tensions high between Israeli settlers living in the heart of the city under heavy guard and Palestinian residents. Since October 1, almost daily attacks and clashes between Palestinians and Israeli soldiers have killed 111 on the Palestinian side, 17 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean. Many of the Palestinians killed have been attackers, while others have been shot dead by Israeli security forces during clashes. The stabbings, shootings and car rammings have mainly been carried out by "lone wolf" attackers who have defied calls for peaceful resistance to Israel's occupation. Many of them have been young people, including teenagers, reflecting anger and lost hope over Israel's occupation, the Palestinians' fractured leadership and the complete lack of progress in peace efforts, analysts say. While the violence has mainly been focused on Jerusalem and the West Bank, it has also spilled over into the Gaza Strip, where protesters have clashed with Israeli security forces along the border fence. Early Monday an Israeli air raid struck a Hamas training camp in the northern Gaza Strip in response to shots fired at Israeli patrol vehicles along the border, with no one there at the time and no injuries reported. Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement, rules the Gaza Strip. Palestinian militants in Gaza have fought three wars with Israel since 2008.

Israeli Court Jails Palestinian MP for 15 Months
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/December 07/15/A prominent Palestinian lawmaker has been jailed for 15 months by an Israeli military court, the military confirmed on Monday.Khalida Jarrar, a senior member of the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and a well-known political figure, was sentenced on Sunday at the Ofer military court near the city of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank. She had been arrested in April on a series of charges, including encouraging attacks against Israel and violating a travel ban. "Jarrar was sentenced to 15 months on the charges she was arrested for a few months ago, including incitement of terrorism," an army spokesperson told AFP on Monday. The period since April will be considered part of her sentence, meaning she is likely to remain in jail until next summer. The Palestinian prisoner rights group Addameer said she had also been fined 10,000 shekels ($2600, 2400 euros) and given a five-year suspended sentence. Israel considers the PFLP a terrorist organization and at the time of her arrest the Israeli army said she posed unspecified "substantial security risks". Issa Qaraqe, Palestinian minister for prisoner affairs, condemned the trial, calling it "arbitrary and legally unjustified.""This is a political arrest. The charges against her are fabricated and ridiculous... there are no security reasons as claimed by the Israeli authorities," he told AFP. Jarrar is a member of the Palestinian parliament which has not met since 2007 after elections a year earlier were won by the Islamist movement Hamas. Addameer said that five of the 132 members of that parliament are currently detained by Israel, including Marwan Barghouti -- among the most prominent Palestinian leaders. Qaraqe condemned what he said was a "campaign" to prosecute parliamentarians. In August 2014 Jarrar was ordered to leave Ramallah within 24 hours and to move to Jericho, but announced at the time she would disobey.

Jordanian Newspaper Editor Jumana Ghanimat: Arab Countries Will Continue To Dream Of Canadian-Style Democracy, But Their Grim Reality Is Not Expected To Change
MEMRI/December 7, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6234
The recent appointment of Harjit Sajjan,an India-born Sikh, as Canada's new defense minister has attracted great interest in the Arab media. Jumana Ghanimat, editor of the Jordanian daily Al-Ghad, wrote that this interest emanates from the Arab yearning for true democracy in their countries, where the principles of democracy have never been internalized, and where trust of the other has not matured, as sectarian, tribal, and even familial divisions in their societies remain. She noted that when Arab citizens go to the polls, they vote not for the candidates they really want, but for those who represent their sect, tribe, or clan. The voter thus is complicit in the creation of a reality that is not the one he really wants – and that, she said, is why Arab citizens can only continue to dream of Canadian-style democracy.
Jumana Ghanimat (Source: jn-news.com)
Following are excerpts from her article:[1]
"The appointment of a new Canadian defense minister was awe-inspiring for Arabs – not because it was a democratic move, but because a man born in India was appointed to this sensitive position. This apparently reflects a latent Arab aspiration to be rid of all the manifestations of division and dispute [among them] as well as [an Arab] yearning for a citizenship that does not become invalid [even] when signs of schism and differences of opinion emerge – as happens [in the Arab world].
"Democracy has principles in which we are not well versed. Today, Canada showed us an example [of such a principle], with its appointment of Harjit Sajjan as defense minister – he was born and raised in India before obtaining Canadian citizenship, and [nevertheless] he was given [such] a sensitive post. Canadians do not question his loyalty, do not discuss his origin, and do not warn against his involvement in the state's most important secrets. This is the democratic element whose absence we notice [in the Arab world]; these are the practices whose absence we have lamented for a long time.
"In Canada, citizenship and loyalty is embodied in public service, regardless of [a citizen's] origin and race. No element [in the state] has an advantage over another element, except regarding the extent to which it contributes to building the nation. Today, when we look at any Arab country, we see that what predominates in the discourse there is conflict, the [non-acceptability] of disagreement [between components of society] and rejection of the other, instead of coexistence. Our societies have been torn to shreds by politicians – to the point where our countries are now arenas of chaos, even though part of society is still making an effort, albeit so far unsuccessfully, to unite the ranks and restore national unity.
"So where does the problem lie? In the [Arab] societies [themselves], or in the regimes and the politicians? Everyone is part of the difficult situation in Arab societies, because these societies have not had sufficient awareness to confront the [phenomenon of] politicians who seek personal gain. The reality created by interested parties and regimes over decades, by keeping true democracy away, has contributed to this...
"The absence of real political action, the abnegation of human rights, and the weakness of the legislative system – [that is, the elimination of apparatuses aimed at] giving the individual a sense of security and belonging – in addition to the false promises to establish civil regimes in the Arab countries, have pushed the individual to seek protection, from his sect, his race, his tribe, or elsewhere. In this way, societies have been subdivided into smaller groups, ultimately impacting the concept of citizenship, which cannot be actualized without the two conditions of rights and obligations.
"In our circumstances, as Arabs, it is very unfortunate, worst of all because in the foreseeable future there seems to be no chance that the Arab countries as a whole will emerge from their crisis. The situation in them today is good –but only [if you want] fertile ground for all forms of extremism; they seem to be facing many difficult years to come. Thus, the dream of stability and of building democratic states remains in the mind of the citizen, who also appears schizophrenic in his behavior. That is, while he is intrigued in theory by a young (Canadian) prime minister, in our countries, young people are marginalized and absent [from politics]. So when this citizen stands next to the ballot box, he rejects the [young] official or politician of whom he [actually] dreams, and opts instead for the candidate representing his sect, tribe, or clan – and thus he is complicit in the creation of a reality that is different from the one he desires – presuming, of course, that no one interfered in one way or another with the contents of the ballot box...
"The eyes of the Arab citizen will continue to gleam with yearning for the young Canadian model, and with the desire to implement this in our [Arab] world. He will never stop complaining to others about the absence of this opportunity. But the real reason [for this reality] is the absence of standards of justice and equal opportunity, which leaves a large gap between the Arab dream and the Arab reality."
Endnotes:
[1] Al-Ghad (Jordan), November 19, 2015.

Continued conflict clogging up Renaissance Dam negotiations
Ayah Aman/Al-Monitor/December 07/15
CAIRO — Egypt has been trying for a year and a half to resolve issues surrounding construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but there is no solution in sight. Technical negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia are marred by a deep disagreement that’s impeding any clear solution to reduce the dam’s negative impact on Egypt’s historical annual quota of Nile water, which amounts to about 55 billion cubic meters (14.5 billion gallons) per year. The ninth round of talks by the Tripartite National Committee (TNC) took place Nov. 7-8 in Cairo. The TNC, which first met in Khartoum in August 2014, includes experts from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. However, the only outcome of the most recent meeting was an agreement to try to schedule another meeting. No date had been set as of this writing. Egypt has been waiting — and waiting — for an impact study on the hydraulic, social, environmental and economic impacts of the dam on Egypt and Sudan, in accordance with recommendations of a report by the International Panel of Experts (IPOE). The study has been stalled by disagreements between the firms hired to conduct it and between the firms and the TNC. Meanwhile, Ethiopia already has completed a significant part of the construction of the first stage of the dam. An Egyptian official with the negotiating committee told Al-Monitor on Nov. 20, on condition of anonymity, “We sent multiple messages expressing our refusal to resume the technical talks in the absence of a decisive political decision to set a timeline for the completion of the required studies and of Ethiopia’s abidance by their results.”The official continued, “We handed the Ethiopian side a report including the Egyptian objections on the method of conduct of the negotiations. The Ethiopians did not answer our objections and postponed their examination until the six-party meeting. “We have other alternatives to the technical negotiations, which cannot continue under the current situation that does not guarantee their implementation.”
Hani Sewilam, a professor of water resources management at RWTH Aachen University in Germany, told Al-Monitor there is no need for new studies. “There are [already] international research studies tracking the expected negative impacts of the dam on Egypt and Sudan,” he said. Since the first phase of construction will be complete before new studies can be conducted, “it will be impossible by that time to negotiate amendments to the dam construction specifications or storage capacity,” Sewilam said. He explained, “The most optimistic scenario to minimize the expected damage on Egypt as a result of the construction of the dam is the assumption that it will be filled in 50 years. But this assumption is not going to materialize, since Ethiopia will not wait 50 years to start optimal power generation from the dam.”The most likely scenario is that the reservoir will be filled in seven years, “which will reduce Egypt’s water supply by 25% and will reduce Egypt's water quota by 11% during the filling years,” said Sewilam, warning of the high risk level. Ethiopia could even decide to fill the dam in just three years, he noted. “There is no technical solution at this time unless Ethiopia agrees to stop construction immediately and cooperates on the reassessment of reservoir capacity — to reduce the storage capacity.”
He added, “The continued negotiation on technical issues relating to the specifications or impacts of the dam is just a matter of procrastination. Time is not on Egypt’s side, but serves Ethiopia.” Egypt had indirectly signaled that it accepted the dam despite concerns about potential dangers to the Egyptian water supply. In an August 2014 press conference in Khartoum, Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Hossam Maghazi confirmed there was no dispute over the first phase of construction. That places Egypt in an awkward position. It now must seek to gain the support of the international community once again — as it had during a diplomatic campaign in 2013 and early in 2014 to restrict construction funding in the hopes that an alternative could be found that would reduce risks. Rawia Tawfik, a professor of political science at Cairo University, spoke with Al-Monitor about Egypt’s political position on the ongoing dam negotiations.
“The pressure cards that [Egypt] might use in these negotiations — such as strengthening its ties with neighboring African countries [to counter Ethiopian clout] — might not have a direct impact of the settlement of the crisis with [Ethiopia] at the moment," Tawfik said. Tawfik continued, “It seems that Cairo has no other option now; the only solution is to continue the negotiations on the technical and political levels.” Cairo’s options are very limited as it seeks to preserve its annual quota of Nile water, which already is not nearly enough to cover its internal water needs. On the other hand, Ethiopia and its Nile Basin neighbors have high aspirations and hope and seek to exploit the river's waters for development purposes.

More powers enter Mideast fray. But still no real strategy
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/December 07/15
The scattered approaches of the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Britain, Germany, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar and others – those involved in military operations in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya – are, despite all pretenses, tactics rather than real strategies. Perhaps Iran alone has a strategic vision, as it fights proxy wars far away from its cities and villages, just like Russia, the U.S., and Europe are doing. The losses of Arabs in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are paid as ransoms to the Iranian victors. However, in the folds of this apparent cohesion, there is a hidden battle raging ahead of the Iranian elections, in which tactical cards are being played to crystallize a strategic vision distinct from those championed currently by the ruling echelons in Tehran, represented by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei stands halfway between the moderate camp of President Rouhani and the hardliner camp led by the Revolutionary Guards and its de facto commander Qassem Soleimani, who is overseeing Iran’s wars in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. There is no way to win this war unless Arab Sunnis become a direct party in the war, both on the popular and governmental levels. While these political battles are taking place in Iran, the military battles are taking place in the Arab countries. These play an important role in the political alignment of the key Iranian players, who are masters in the arts of tradeoff and maneuvering in war and negotiation. In truth, this is exactly what the other countries sitting opposite Iran, both on the table and in the battlefield, lack: shrewdness and stratagem.
Defining the mission
For instance, Saudi Arabia is in a dire need to clearly define the mission of the Arab coalition’s war in Yemen. It must determine the practical means to make the mission a success, and commit to a specific timetable as part of an exit strategy. But Saudi Arabia must also leave behind a Yemen that can recover, and not a dismembered Yemen. Russia, another example, considers itself the dominant decision maker in Syria. But at the same time, it is slipping into a quagmire and is also in need of a strategy. France has a package of tactics without any strategy. Britain has admitted to its lack of strategic vision, as it watches Russia bomb the very Syrian rebels that Britain wanted to be the boots on the ground working in tandem with its air strikes.For its part, the U.S. is either good at covering a hidden strategy behind a series of failed tactics, or is really looking for a strategy amid a pile of conflicting tactics.
A futile fight
So where do we stand and what needs to be done? This war on ISIS, al-Qaeda and their affiliates does not appear to be serious. It will also be futile if international policies continue as they are. A U.N. report issued this month said that between 2000 and 3000 ISIS fighters, mostly Libyans who had fought in Iraq and Syria, returned to Libya in late 2013. The report noted that “while the group is benefiting from the appeal and notoriety of [ISIS] in Iraq and Syria, it is only one player among multiple warring factions in Libya and faces strong resistance from the population, as well as difficulties in building and maintaining local alliances.” The report notes that ISIS currently lacks the capacity to secure, hold and manage oil fields and related oil infrastructure in Libya. However, at the same time, ISIS continues to expand its control in the country, the report adds. The good news is that Libya’s population does not accept Libyan ISIS fighters returning to the country, and that they have no access to oil revenues. The bad news is that despite this, ISIS is expanding in Libya. NATO, which abandoned Libya after tearing it apart, has no concrete strategy there. It was fully aware that getting rid of the tyrant Muammar Qaddafi without coupling it with aiding Libya to build institutions brick by brick, would lead to rampant chaos and to the country falling into the hands of extremism and terrorism. The UAE and Qatar differed radically over the Libyan identity that was to take over. Each nation chose the side it believed in, offering it its full support.
The U.N. Security Council refused requests from Egypt and Libya to lift the arms embargo on the legitimate government, to help it fight ISIS, al-Qaeda, and other groups. It therefore prevented nations from helping the government fight back against ISIS and al-Qaeda, and did not lift a finger to stop the spread of terrorism in Libya.The U.N. Secretary General appointed an envoy to Libya, but the negotiations have failed because of the depth of inter-Libyan rivalries. And as the Security Council turned a blind eye to Libya, the major powers buried their heads in the sand as ISIS and al-Qaeda grew stronger there.
U.S.-led coalition
Meanwhile, the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS in Iraq includes a large number of Arab and Western nations. Washington also chose Iran as a silent ally in the war on ISIS in Iraq, and turned a blind eye to violations by the Popular Mobilization Forces and Shia militias backed by Iran fighting alongside the U.S. in the war. Washington was aware that this would inflame sectarian tensions between Shia and Sunnis in Iraq, and would weaken the enthusiasm of the Arab countries that are part of the coalition. Particularly so as no political momentum was coupled with the military momentum, to push for reforms and encourage Sunnis to join the anti-ISIS coalition. True, the Kurds are a crucial ally in the war on ISIS, and Iran has the right to enter the war against the group. However, it is also true that there is no way to win this war unless Arab Sunnis become a direct party in the war, both on the popular and governmental levels. As long as the Sunni Arab tribes are suspicious about U.S.-Iranian goals, and are not encouraged through political reforms, they will not be enthusiastic and the war will continue to be lame and ineffective in both Iraq and Syria. So why has Washington failed to heed the repercussions of ignoring this crucial issue in the war on ISIS, now the global public enemy number one?
Mutual forgiveness
The U.S. has been accused of fueling the Sunni-Shia conflict for 35 years now, beginning with the Iran-Iraq war in which the U.S. sided with Saddam Hussein. Tehran has forgiven Washington, after George W. Bush got rid of Saddam by invading Iraq, and its enemy the Taliban by invading Afghanistan.
Furthermore, President Barack Obama’s insistence on concluding a nuclear deal with Iran without holding it accountable for its roles in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon has become the mortar of mutual forgiveness. Yet Tehran will never forgive the Gulf countries that allied with the U.S. in support of Saddam during the war with Iran. This is one of the key reasons for Iranian hostility towards the Gulf nations, which will not go away easily and for which Syria, Iraq, and Yemen will pay dearly for. The Obama administration stands also accused of believing the only way to fight Sunni terrorism is encouraging Shia terrorism, either in partnership with it, as in Iraq, or by turning a blind eye to it, as in Syria, or by letting it grow, as in Yemen.
In Yemen, al-Qaeda is growing strong and is regaining territories Houthis evacuate. This is not a deliberate intention by the Yemeni government or the Arab coalition, but is caused by the fact that the U.S., which was previously actively fighting al-Qaeda in Yemen through drones, is no longer interested in continuing this. Now is the time, however, to empower the legitimate government and help it spread its control over the territories it recovers, to prevent al-Qaeda from filling the vacuum. This will not happen, though, because the international community, especially the U.S., is not willing to help in this regard. One reason is that the international community seems to want Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies to become further implicated in the Yemeni quagmire, which would impoverish and weaken these nations. If al-Qaeda fills the vacuum, the Arab Gulf nations will be readily blamed for entering the Yemeni war against the Houthi rebels and their allies’ deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Irrespective of whether or not the international community understands that Saudi Arabia had no choice but to act in defense of its national security from the Iranian-backed Houthi threat across the border with Yemen, there is a crucial need for Saudi Arabia to revisit its options in Yemen now.
Saudi national security
In Saudi Arabia, some voices are calling on the government to give priority to Yemen instead of scattering its efforts in Syria or in the war against ISIS. They argue that Yemen is a matter of Saudi national security, and that failure to regain control would lead to wasting dozens of lives and billions of dollars. What these voices want is a clear strategy, with a clear beginning and end, to avoid costly setbacks that undermine gains on the ground. Resuming negotiations sponsored by U.N. envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed and concluding an agreement as soon as possible would the cornerstone of any exit strategy. It is in the interests of Riyadh, as leader of the Arab coalition, to give maximum support for the U.N. envoy’s efforts and push for a political solution. It is in the interest of all Arab coalition countries to stop the attrition that some regional and international powers would like to see continue. Perhaps the comparison between Arab coalition strikes in Yemen and Russian strikes in Syria is useful, in terms of their failure to complete the mission alone, and in terms of the need for an international political process as the primary instrument of an exit strategy. Moscow is most in need of the Vienna process on Syria, which it launched in partnership with other international powers, entrusting it to U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura. Russia wants to see an end to its military operations, before becoming further implicated and drained. Air strikes in Syria, Yemen, or Iraq have a huge human cost. Even if Moscow and Washington say they are targeting the scourge of terrorism, there are innocents in the areas they hit and they cannot be considered mere “collateral damage”. The same applies to Arab coalition strikes in Yemen. Therefore, it is necessary to set a timetable to end the strikes, so that these do not end up being destruction for destruction’s sake in violation of international humanitarian laws. The Russian-Saudi relationship currently involves both Yemen and Syria. Riyadh needs Moscow in Yemen, or at least, needs Russia not to intervene or back Iran’s efforts there. Moscow needs Riyadh, which will soon host a conference of the Syrian political and military opposition factions, in a bid to give a boost to the Vienna process.
Assad knot
The main contentious issue between the two countries remains the “Assad knot”, the fate of Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s future, as well as the sale of advanced Russian weapons systems to Iran. These are not minor issues, and they must be addressed urgently if political agreements are to produce an alternative to the quagmires and conflicts. Moscow and Riyadh understand this well. Riyadh is aware that it will not be able to unravel the Russian-Iranian alliance, and the most it aspires to achieve now is to improve relations with Russia in general, and keep Moscow neutral in Yemen. For its part, Moscow does not want its alliance with Iran in Syria alongside Assad there to cause it to be caught in quicksand, and is therefore relenting. Iran, in turn, has read the transformations and developments, and has its own tactical and strategic calculations, but Iran is not infallible. It is playing many cards with overconfidence. The militias Tehran has created and exported to Syria, for example, are fighting alongside the regime in Damascus, deliberately targeting moderate opposition elements that Britain has said they are indispensable in the war, claiming they number 70,000. If Russia and Iran are confident Washington, London, Riyadh, Ankara, and Paris will bless their campaign to crush the Syrian opposition, which will be the boots on the ground for their air strikes, then there could be a deeper agreement that we don’t know about. And if these capitals believe Moscow and Tehran’s attacks on the Syrian opposition will harm their interests, then they must communicate this seriously to Russia and Iran. Otherwise, the impression that ISIS is a bogyman for much sinister goals will only be reinforced.

ISIS problem can only be solved by regional Sunni powers
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December 07/15
Should the West be involved in Syria? Or get more involved, as is now planned? It is certainly true that ISIS poses a threat to security in the West. After the recent scenes in Paris and Brussels, there is no longer any doubt about that. But we have long known that the West cannot solve the ISIS problem itself. The more it intervenes, the more it gives credence to the ISIS narrative that there is a war between Western Crusaders and Muslims in ‘Muslim Lands’. The West could, if it had the motivation, simply crush ISIS. But if it just went in and did that, a new ISIS would just spring up from the ashes – and though we may yet lack the imagination to foresee how, that new ISIS may well turn out even more brutal and malignant.
Local population
The war in Syria and Iraq is not going to go away. And it probably won’t be solved by the “big powers” posturing about in conference halls. There are tens of thousands of ISIS fighters. They rule over a territory with an estimated population of up to 10 million. The same way that Sunni ISIS cannot hold Kurdish and Shia territory, the Sunni lands that ISIS control will not accept Shia government from Damascus or from Baghdad, and submission to leaders like Assad, or indeed Malaki, both of whom have dropped cluster munitions on Sunni civilian populations and, in the case of Assad, much, much worse.
The main problem is that for the Sunni states, defeating ISIS would bolster the governments of both Assad and Malaki – both of whom are clients of its arch-nemesis, Iran. The fact of the matter is that many in the local population in the ISIS controlled lands, though they may not be too keen on the ideological excesses of ISIS, feel safer under ISIS administration and protection than they would from either of the Shia governments. Or indeed, under any kind of Western-backed administration, given our propensity to drop bombs on them or support brutal dictators (see Sisi in Egypt).
Regional Sunni powers
No, the ISIS problem can only be solved by the regional Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and the Emirates. And on paper at least, there really shouldn’t be too much to stop these countries from intervening. They certainly have overwhelming numbers and the technological edge – even though their capacity to use those numbers and the technological edge can be reasonably questioned. Unfortunately, what they also have are conflicting interests. The main problem is that for the Sunni states, defeating ISIS would bolster the governments of both Assad and Malaki – both of whom are clients of its arch-nemesis, Iran. Turkey is making a similar calculation. It may not be a huge fan of ISIS, and it is particularly incensed by the ISIS attacks in Turkey this year. But it certainly hates Assad’s regime just as much, and it fears the Kurds much more – both of whom would benefit from the destruction of ISIS.
So the Saudis have preferred to wade into a messy civil war in Yemen against the Iran-backed Shia Houthi rebels, where at least it has some kind of an idea of what it is trying to achieve. And with its resources thus distracted, the Saudis are said to have not carried out any airstrikes against ISIS since September.
Turkey, for its part, has just about managed to persuade itself to get involved after much U.S. pressure and the ISIS attacks on its soil, but it has still preferred to focus its attention on the people it considers its primary strategic enemy, the Kurds. In principle, everyone is fighting ISIS. In practice, everyone – Assad, the Turks, the Saudis, the Russians and so on – are using ISIS as a pretext to hit other groups hard, by way of associating them with ISIS. At this point, the Kurds and the Iran-led Shia militias may well be the only groups actually fighting ISIS, with U.S. and Western air support. But so long as this remains the case, this is a war of the Crusaders and of the Shia heretics against “good [Sunni] Muslims”. As long as Europe and the U.S. try and fail to cope with the mass migration triggered by this conflict – while many Arab Gulf states take no refugees at all – ISIS can credibly tap into that pernicious Muslim victimhood narrative that Islamists have so carefully cultivated for decades. And as long as that happens, ISIS can be crushed, but they will not be defeated.

Why should Muslims take responsibility for the extremists?
H.A. Hellyer/Al Arabiya/December 07/15
“In the aftermath of yet another atrocity carried out by vigilante violent fanatics in the name of religion…”In any article beginning with those words one has to be referring, of course, to Islam. Because it couldn’t be the case that one would be talking about the recent mass shooting in Colorado, by a radical fanatic who claimed to be a committed Christian. Indeed, he justified those who attacked abortion clinics, claiming they were doing “God’s work”, and gave the appellation of “heroes” to members of the “Army of God”, a radical group that claimed responsibility for bombings and killings. When we compare the way in which some parts of the media establishment treated the Colorado attack, with another atrocity carried out in California by other radical fanatics who claimed to be committed Muslims, the comparison could not be more stark. Critically, there was a call for “taking responsibility” – a call that invariably falls upon Muslim communities, but seldom upon Christian communities.
A dangerous logic
That call is not limited to far-right sectors of American society or across the European continent. It’s far more prevalent than that – it’s been mainstreamed tremendously. So much so that one can find the insistence that Muslims should “take responsibility” for such extremists, even within some sections of Muslim-majority societies themselves. The ease in which the logic of collective responsibility is accepted as normal is worrying indeed. We should encourage Muslim communities to build up resilience. But to claim they are somehow culpable for the extremism of a tiny minority is rather bizarre. But it is a dangerous logic indeed. It is the logic that led, for example, a radical extremist to stab someone on the London Underground a few days ago – declaring his action was “for Syria”, even though that Londoner had probably never been there or engaged in any way on Syria. But the victim was British, and the perpetrator deemed all Britons culpable for the decisions of their government, which he took such umbrage against – and behaved accordingly. It is the logic that would mean, for example, that due to the actions of the Colorado shootings, Christian Americans en masse would be expected to denounce terrorism. Or, indeed, that Egyptian or Lebanese Christians would be required to condemn the killings in the United States at the hand of their supposed co-religionist in the name of their religion. Rightly so, no such call is really taken seriously – because the Colorado shooter is not seen as speaking for his community, nor his religion.
Still a role to play
No one should imagine, nevertheless, that there are no roles for Muslim communities in tackling radicalization and extremism. After all, there should be roles for American Congressmen to pass gun control laws that would make the United States a country that didn’t have more guns than citizens, making the Colorado killings and other mass shootings that much easier to carry out. (Actually, there are such roles – it’s just that American Congressmen don’t want to play them.) Of course, roles for Muslim communities in these debates and discussions exist. Muslim religious authorities have a responsibility, as religious authorities, to teach their religion to those who want to learn it, so that they might be better informed about their faith, and also so they might recognize when someone is trying to preach them a dud version. But that’s a far cry from the culpability that so many seem to implicitly – and explicitly – claim.
In the aftermath of the July 7 attacks in London in 2005, I was asked by the UK government to participate in a working group on tackling radicalization and extremism. In those days, the public debate was all about “why haven’t the Muslims done more to tackle the wacky preachers in their community”, which were presumably taking young Muslims onwards to blow themselves up. But nearly all studies showed that the overwhelming majority of Muslim Britons who were recruited into radical, extremist groups did not do so by way of engaging in Muslim British institutions. They weren’t recruited in mosques or Muslim community centers. On the contrary, the recruitment had to take place outside of those institutions. Muslim communities across Europe suffer from a broad variety of socio-economic problems, which makes recruitment more possible in certain cases – most certainly. In others, the ideological component completely overrides. But in either case, we’re asking Muslim communities to do more than they are capable of. When it comes to addressing the social and economic disparities in their communities, Muslim religious authorities and Muslim lobby groups have little ability of their own to act – they can only do so in conjunction with society at large. When it comes to addressing radical recruitment, they are even less able to effect direct change – that’s something the security services are responsible for. We can and should encourage Muslim communities to build up resilience – true enough. But to claim they are somehow culpable for the extremism that a tiny minority of them partakes of is rather bizarre. It is also something we wouldn’t presume to do on other communities, and nor should we. If collective responsibility exists, it is the collective responsibility of societies to find solutions that they all partake in building together. As for apportioning blame for crimes and hatred, that should be rather easy – it ought to be apportioned to those who carry out the crime and those who inspire the hatred. No one else – regardless of whether the crime was carried out by a Caucasian Christian in Colorado, or a Pakistani Muslim in California.

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006 Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006