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Bible Quotations For Today

The Parable of the 10 Bridesmaids & their lamps
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 25/01-13: "‘Then the kingdom of heaven will be like this. Ten bridesmaids took their lamps and went to meet the bridegroom. Five of them were foolish, and five were wise.
When the foolish took their lamps, they took no oil with them; but the wise took flasks of oil with their lamps. As the bridegroom was delayed, all of them became drowsy and slept. But at midnight there was a shout, "Look! Here is the bridegroom! Come out to meet him." Then all those bridesmaids got up and trimmed their lamps. The foolish said to the wise, "Give us some of your oil, for our lamps are going out." But the wise replied, "No! there will not be enough for you and for us; you had better go to the dealers and buy some for yourselves." And while they went to buy it, the bridegroom came, and those who were ready went with him into the wedding banquet; and the door was shut. Later the other bridesmaids came also, saying, "Lord, lord, open to us." But he replied, "Truly I tell you, I do not know you."Keep awake therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour."

A wife is bound as long as her husband lives. But if the husband dies, she is free to marry anyone she wishes, only in the Lord
First Letter to the Corinthians 07/36-40: "If anyone thinks that he is not behaving properly towards his fiance’e, if his passions are strong, and so it has to be, let him marry as he wishes; it is no sin. Let them marry. But if someone stands firm in his resolve, being under no necessity but having his own desire under control, and has determined in his own mind to keep her as his fiance’e, he will do well. So then, he who marries his fiance’e does well; and he who refrains from marriage will do better. A wife is bound as long as her husband lives. But if the husband dies, she is free to marry anyone she wishes, only in the Lord. But in my judgement she is more blessed if she remains as she is. And I think that I too have the Spirit of God."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 03-04/15
Can Saudi and Iran play ball in Lebanon/Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/December 03/15
Al Azhar Cannot Denounce ISIS of Being Un-Islamic—Even If ISIS Commits “Every Atrocity/By Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/December 03/15
Larijani hopes to expand his political power/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
New report confirms Iran's nuclear weapons program/Barbara Slavin/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
Will Israel, Russia tighten coordination on Syria/Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
Tony Blair's blunder on Middle East peace/Ahmad Melhem/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
Is UNHCR in Jordan discriminating against Sudanese refugees/Adam Lucente/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
Coptic Pope's Jerusalem visit sparks backlash in Egypt/George Mikhail/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
Britain rightly follows France into Syria conflict/Manuel Almeida/Al Arabiya/December 03/15
Has there been a soft coup in Pakistan/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December 03/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 03-04/15
Surprise' Candidate Franjieh May Become 1st President who was a Child during War
Report: Christians 'Uncomfortable with Muslims Naming President' as Franjieh to Meet al-Rahi
Hariri Meets Hollande: Political Sacrifices Need to be Made, Atmospheres are Positive
Reports: Army Arrests Terror Suspects on Zalka Highway
Report: Geagea Adamant not to Nominate Franjieh for Presidency
Report: Salam to Receive Studies on Exporting Waste
Ibrahim on Efforts to Release IS Hostages: Now is Time for Silence, Not Rest
Harb Meets Hariri, Urges 'Guarantees' over Franjieh's Nomination
Franjieh Vows Fair Electoral Law as al-Rahi Says His Nomination May 'Resolve Crisis'
Asiri Says Franjieh's Nomination was Lebanese Initiative, Urges Christian Talks
Filipina Housemaid Kills Female Employer in Ain Najm
Can Saudi and Iran play ball in Lebanon?

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 03-04/15
California shooting suspect ‘radicalized’
U.S. congress mulls visa program changes after Paris attacks
U.S. charges man over Muslim cab driver shooting
All U.S. military positions to open to women, ‘no exceptions’
Stranded migrants clash with police on Greek-Macedonian border
New analysis backs search area for flight MH370'
New Saudi policy – benefits and pragmatism
California police hunt gunmen after shooting
Russia’s top diplomat says no meddling in Cyprus peace talks
Turkey, Russia FMs Meet for First Talks after Warplane Crisis
Kerry Calls for Syrian, Arab Ground Troops against IS
Putin Swears to Make Turkey Regret Plane Downing
UK Bombs IS Oil Field in Syria after MPs Vote for Strikes

Surprise' Candidate Franjieh May Become 1st President who was a Child during War
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/15/After more than a year of failing to elect a president, Lebanon's fractured politicians may finally be rallying behind a candidate – Suleiman Franjieh, a childhood friend of Syria's leader Bashar Assad. Franjieh, who would become the first Lebanese president who was a child during the country's 15-year civil war, has made no secret of his close ties to Assad. But his potential candidacy is coming as a surprise to many in a country that has been roiled by the war in Syria next door and that has seen major efforts in recent years to reduce longstanding Syrian influence. Lebanon's presidency has been vacant since May 2014, with the country's chronically divided parliament unable to agree on a successor to Michel Suleiman after his term expired. But in recent weeks a new consensus appears to be emerging, with al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri meeting Marada movement chief Franjieh in Paris and the Lebanese press swiftly anointing the 50-year-old the leading candidate for the presidency.
Family massacred
Like many of Lebanon's prominent political figures, Franjieh hails from a storied dynasty and has been deeply affected by the civil war, which began when he was 10.Franjieh's grandfather, his namesake, was president when the war began and in May 1976 called on the Syrian army to intervene in the conflict to repel an offensive by Palestinian, leftist and Muslim militias against embattled Christian forces. The appeal opened the door for a controversial Syrian presence in Lebanon that only ended in 2005, after the assassination of Hariri's father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri, whose death many in Lebanon blamed on the Syrian regime. In 1978, Franjieh's father Tony, along with his mother and sister, were murdered by rival Christian fighters in an attack he survived because he was elsewhere in the country at the time. His potential rival Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was accused of carrying out the attack, during which he was reportedly wounded in the hand. Franjieh left school at 17 to become head of Marada, at the time a militia movement. He was elected to parliament in 1991 and reelected multiple times in Zgharta, his family's traditional fiefdom in northern Lebanon. "He is of the war generation and was a victim himself because he lost his relatives," said Hilal Khashan, head of the political science department at the American University of Beirut. "He saw Lebanon in all the stages of the war and he will be careful, like those of his generation, not to repeat it," Khashan added. He said Franjieh's chances of becoming president appeared good because "he is a pan-Arabist, which appeals to the Sunnis, and he is supported by the Americans, the Russians, the French, the Saudis, and even the Iranians and Syrians."
Syrian sphere of influence
Lebanese media have also speculated that Franjieh's elevation to the presidency may be part of a deal that will see Hariri, in self-imposed exile since 2011, return to the country as prime minister, a post reserved for Sunnis. Asked about Franjieh's candidacy after talks with French President Francois Hollande in Paris Thursday, Hariri said: "There are ongoing dialogues and the atmosphere is positive, hopefully, and the coming days will show that Lebanon will be fine." Franjieh's family has long been close to the Assad clan, with his grandfather known for his warm relations with former Syrian president Hafez Assad.
Franjieh has been open about his friendship with Bashar, whom he has known since their youth. "I'm a friend of President Bashar Assad and I am proud of that under all circumstances," he said in a 2010 interview. More recently, he praised Syria's "resistance" during its nearly five-year conflict, saying they "had not backed down, despite the global war against his country."Franjieh's presumptive candidacy has raised eyebrows in some quarters because of his close ties to Syria.Damascus' 30-year presence in Lebanon ended only after massive demonstrations following Rafik Hariri's assassination, and many view Franjieh as a return to Syrian interference in its smaller neighbor. Sahar Atrache, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said it was "surprising to see Franjieh proposed as a presidential candidate given his friendship with Assad." His election could "put Lebanon once again in the Syrian sphere of influence," she said.

Report: Christians 'Uncomfortable with Muslims Naming President' as Franjieh to Meet al-Rahi
Naharnet/December 03/15/Bishop Samir Mazloum stressed that Maronite patriarchate does not back a specific presidential candidate, adding that it “does not have a veto against anyone”, reported As Safir newspaper on Thursday. He told the daily that Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh, who is a potential nominee, is close to the church and “has the characteristics that qualify him to become president.”“The four main Christian leaders in Lebanon have these characteristics and we will support whoever enjoys the majority,” he explained. Meanwhile, a prominent Christian source in the March 14 alliance expressed to As Safir their “unease” with the manner in which Franjieh is being nominated. “The method has created unease among Christians in general, Maronites in particular, especially after it appeared that Muslim powers hold sway in naming candidates,” it said. He stressed that Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea eliminated the idea of choosing a candidate from among the main Christian leaders when he announced in June that he is ready to withdraw his presidential nomination in favor of a consensual candidate. Mazloum remarked however that the four Christian figures had agreed during their meetings, held under the sponsorship of Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi, that they are all potential presidential candidates. The figures are Geagea, Franjieh, Change and Reform bloc chief Michel Aoun, and Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel. Amid the debate on Franjieh's nomination, the Marada chief is expected to hold talks with al-Rahi on Friday to address the presidential elections.Al-Mustaqbal daily Thursday said that the two officials will be holding a meeting in the “upcoming hours.”The lawmaker met on Wednesday night with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat, who announced that Franjieh is qualified to be a “compromise president” as the former stressed that his possible nomination will not affect the unity of the March 8 camp. “Walid Jumblat was the first figure who nominated me for the presidency in Lebanon and we will be on the same course in this period,” said Franjieh. “My nomination has not become official until the moment and I believe that ex-PM (Saad) Hariri is 100% honest in his support for me and that he was serious in everything he said,” he added. He was referring to a Paris meeting with Hariri last month that has sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to Franjieh's nomination for the presidency. Hariri has also met in the French capital with Jumblat and Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel. Hariri has meanwhile tasked his advisors in “expanding their contacts, which will include Bkirki," reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Thursday. They will hold talks with al-Rahi as soon as he returns to Lebanon from abroad and ahead of Friday's Maronite Bishops Council meeting.

Hariri Meets Hollande: Political Sacrifices Need to be Made, Atmospheres are Positive
Naharnet/December 03/15/Head of al-Mustaqbal movement MP Saad Hariri stated on Thursday after his meeting with French President Francois Hollande that “political sacrifices need to be made” to address the presidential deadlock. “No doubt there are some political sacrifices that we need to make. Lebanon is more important than all of us,” said Hariri after a meeting that gathered the two men at the Elysee Palace. The meeting highlighted the latest developments on the vacuum at the top state post which saw the country drown in a vacuum for over 17 months. “President Francois Hollande received Hariri at 10:30 am Paris time at the Elysee Palace,” a statement issued by the Mustaqbal chief media office said. "It is crucial that the presidential crisis ends," said Hollande after the meeting. For his part, Hariri added: "We are working on ending the vacuum and there is an ongoing dialogue between the whole Lebanese factions. The hopes are high in Lebanon to conclude this matter." Despite the divisions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, recent reports signaled a Saudi-Iranian push to conclude the thorny file of electing a Lebanese president in addition to a French role that could engage in the efforts. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. There has been a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh and Hariri. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency.

Reports: Army Arrests Terror Suspects on Zalka Highway
Naharnet/December 03/15/The army arrested Thursday four terrors suspects after intercepting their van on the Zalka-Beirut highway, media reports said.“An army intelligence patrol intercepted a white van this afternoon on the Zalka-Beirut highway, arresting its four passengers after closing the road for several minutes,” MTV said. “According to unconfirmed information, the Lebanese and Syrian detainees are involved in terrorist activities, especially ties to the Islamic State group,” the TV network added. LBCI TV meanwhile said that the four suspects came from the northern region of Akkar and that they had been placed under surveillance by the Intelligence Directorate for a period that preceded their arrest. “According to preliminary investigations, two of the group turned out to be very dangerous fugitives,” it added. Dozens of suspects were arrested across the country in recent weeks. The massive crackdown followed an IS suicide bombing in the southern Beirut suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh that killed 44 people and wounded around 240 others.

Report: Geagea Adamant not to Nominate Franjieh for Presidency
Naharnet/December 03/15/Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea is still adamant not to approve the nomination of MP Suleiman Franjieh for the post of presidency “even if that leaves him alone without any allies,” al-Akhbar daily reported on Thursday. “Geagea will keep on rejecting the nomination of Marada leader Franjieh until the end, even if it leaves him alone without any allies,” said the paper. The LF chief, who is awaiting an invitation from Saudi Arabia to visit the kingdom, is betting on the Riyadh's role and the possibility that it might obstruct the suggestion of al-Mustaqbal movement leader Saad Hariri to nominate Franjieh. Unnamed sources said that Geagea, who has not given any statement on the new settlement regarding the presidential post, is expected to “break the silence” in the coming days where he will make a “major announcement,” according to As Safir daily. Hariri is slated to head to Riyadh as well, after he holds a meeting with French President Francois Hollande and several March 14 figures in Paris. A Paris meeting between Franjieh and Hariri last month has sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to Franjieh's nomination for the presidency. The possible settlement has not been officially announced and has drawn dismay among Christian leaders mainly the two candidates Geagea, of the March 14 camp, and Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun of March 8 camp. Lebanon has been without a president since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014.Conflicts between the rival March 8 and March 14 camps have thwarted all attempts to elect a successor. The parliament adjourned for the 32nd time on Wednesday, a session to elect a head of state over a lack of quorum.

Report: Salam to Receive Studies on Exporting Waste
Naharnet/December 03/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam is set to be handed on Thursday a number of studies tackling the exportation of garbage in Lebanon, reported al-Mustaqbal daily. It said that the committee concerned with tackling this file will deliver to him a technical, administrative, and legal reports on the matter. This stage will be followed with the phase of tackling tenders presented by companies interested in handling Lebanon's trash. This phase will determine the extent to which the tenders adhere to the technical, environmental, and legal details that the committee has covered, Once the suitable proposal is agreed upon, the case will be referred to cabinet for approval, explained al-Mustaqbal. Lebanon has been suffering from a waste disposal since the closure of the Naameh landfill in July. Politicians have so far failed to find an alternative to the dump, resulting in trash piling up on the streets throughout the country. People have resorted to burning the waste, sparking warnings of the health and environmental hazards of such measures.

Ibrahim on Efforts to Release IS Hostages: Now is Time for Silence, Not Rest
Naharnet/December 03/15/General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim vowed that efforts will continue to release the Lebanese servicemen that are being held hostage by the Islamic State extremist group, reported As Safir newspaper on Thursday. He told the daily: “Now is the time for silence, but not for rest.”He made his remarks in the wake of the army's shelling on Wednesday of positions of the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front gunmen on the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal. “We will continue our work in the case of the servicemen held by the IS,” added Ibrahim. “We do not have lines of communication with the group, but we will search for useful negotiations channels,” he explained. “We hope to reach the desired result as soon as possible,” he continued. On Tuesday, al-Nusra Front released 16 Lebanese servicemen it had abducted in the wake of clashes with the army in Arsal in August 2014. They were released in a Qatari-sponsored deal that included a swap of prisoners held in Lebanese and Syrian jails. The IS, which was also involved in the 2014 clashes, kidnapped a number of servicemen as well. It currently holds nine captive. The two groups had executed four of the hostages.

Harb Meets Hariri, Urges 'Guarantees' over Franjieh's Nomination
Naharnet/December 03/15/Telecom Minister Butros Harb on Thursday declared that the possible election of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president must be accompanied by “guarantees” that the move would not be considered a victory for a political camp over another. Harb voiced his remarks during a meeting in the French capital Paris with al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. “We discussed Franjieh's nomination, its circumstances and the guarantees that must be offered to all Lebanese to ensure that it will not be a victory for a camp over another,” Harb tweeted after the talks. “We agreed on the need to continue the ongoing contacts in order to find the appropriate solution that can gather the Lebanese and pull them out of the state of fragmentation and rivalry,” he added. The minister, one of March 14's Christian independents, also stressed that the presidential issue is “not about persons as much as it is a matter of a (presidential) platform, a vision and commitment to the national and sovereign principles that we are struggling for.”Harb is the latest Lebanese politician to meet Hariri in Paris in recent weeks after talks between the ex-PM and Franjieh sparked intense speculation that they agreed to the Marada chief's nomination for the presidency. Hariri has also met in the French capital with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat and Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel.

Franjieh Vows Fair Electoral Law as al-Rahi Says His Nomination May 'Resolve Crisis'
Naharnet/December 03/15/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi held talks Thursday in Bkirki with Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh and announced that the northern leader's presidential nomination might resolve the country's political crisis.“We put the patriarch in the picture of the developments,” said Franjieh after the talks. Franjieh was accompanied by his son Tony to the meeting, which was also attended by al-Rahi's aides Samir Mazloum and Hanna Alwan. “It is my duty to reassure the other camp if they have concerns and as president, I would work on a law (for parliamentary elections) that would ensure national balance and real representation for all sects,” he added. Asked about any “obstacles” hindering his nomination, Franjieh said there are no hurdles but rather a new situation that needs to be clarified to all parties. “Time can resolve all issues and hurrying things might be harmful,” he said. As for the controversy over his close ties to Syrian President Bashar Assad, Franjieh said his relation with Syria's leader should be considered “a point of strength, not a point of weakness.” “I'm not asking the other camp to endorse the stances of the March 8 coalition and the other camp cannot ask me to endorse March 14's stances, but what's important is to protect Lebanon,” the Marada leader added. The patriarch told Franjieh upon his arrival in Bkirki that the news about his nomination have "sparked joy among all Lebanese and reactivated the presidential issue." "We reactivated the presidential issue because inaction is lethal," the Marada chief for his part told al-Rahi, according to MTV. Earlier in the day, the patriarch welcomed the presidential initiative that involves Franjieh's nomination to the country's top Christian post. “We will contact all the relevant leaders in a bid to reach a solution to the presidential crisis,” al-Rahi said upon his arrival at Beirut's airport from a pastoral foreign trip. “We salute the presidential initiative and we hope it will open the door for consultations, contemplation and consensus,” al-Rahi added. “We tell the parties that the main concern must be the protection of the Lebanese republic and its state institutions,” he said.The patriarch underlined that any agreement requires cooperation among all parties.“We thank God that there is a valuable and serious initiative and the door has been opened for all parties to engage in a responsible discussion and reach an appropriate solution,” he added. The patriarch also said that he will hold consultations with all Christian and Muslim parties in the country. “The president is for all Lebanese, not only for Christians, and we want a president for entire Lebanon,” al-Rahi said.Earlier on Thursday, Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asiri called for “a constructive dialogue among the Christian forces” in the wake of Franjieh's nomination, hoping the results will be “fruitful and quick.”The new momentum in the country followed a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri, who is close to Riyadh. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency. Hariri has also met in Paris with Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel and Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat.

Asiri Says Franjieh's Nomination was Lebanese Initiative, Urges Christian Talks
Naharnet/December 03/15/Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asiri noted Thursday that Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh's nomination for the presidency was a purely Lebanese initiative, adding that the kingdom “encourages” any efforts aimed at ending the presidential void.“We hope to see a constructive dialogue among the Christian forces and we hope the results will be fruitful and quick,” the envoy said after meeting Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel in Bikfaya. Commenting on the flurry of political talks over Franjieh's candidacy, Asiri added: “There has been a national initiative from influential political forces in the country to choose a presidential candidate and there are also objections from certain parties, that's why we must encourage the parties to achieve results and we are keen on ending the vacuum.”“Saudi Arabia has not and will not nominate any candidate for the presidency … The nomination was an inter-Lebanese initiative and we only supported the step and inter-Christian dialogue is needed in this regard,” the ambassador went on to say. He noted that the situation in the country “requires the speedy election of a president.”The new momentum in the country followed a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri, who is close to Riyadh. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency. Hariri has also met in Paris with Gemayel and Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat.

Filipina Housemaid Kills Female Employer in Ain Najm
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/15/A Filipina housemaid killed her female employer in the Metn town of Ain Najm early on Thursday and called the deceased's husband right afterward, the state-run National News Agency said. Natalie Michel Solben, 38, was killed after her housemaid hit her several times on the head with a vase and a metal object used in weight lifting that fractured her skull. Reports said that after her crime, the maid had called Natalie's spouse Aziz Elian Farhat who was outside the house at the time of the incident. The criminal evidence and the forensic examiner arrived at the crime scene in the al-Barakeh residential building. The maid was arrested. Reports said that some kind of fight took place before the maid was able to kill the woman. The couple has two young girls one aged five and another two-and-a-half years old.

Can Saudi and Iran play ball in Lebanon?
Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/December 03/15
If Lebanon is the bellwether for Middle East politics then the news of a potential breakthrough in its presidential vote will test regional diplomacy and the potential for Saudi-Iranian detente in Beirut and beyond. The proposed deal to nominate pro-Hezbollah leader Suleiman Franjieh as president and Saudi Arabia’s ally Saad Hariri as prime minister, cannot materialize without the blessing of Riyadh and Tehran, the two most influential outside players in the Lebanese arena. After more than 550 days of presidential void, Lebanon could be weeks away from electing a new president. Lebanese sources following the negotiations are cautiously optimistic about the agreement, while warning it is “not a done deal” and could be torpedoed from within Lebanon. Key rivals of Franjieh in the Lebanese Christian base – namely leaders Michel Aoun and Samir Gaagaa – are still opposed to it, while others within Hariri’s own party would like to see it fail.Saudi Arabia and Iran dancing tango in Lebanon would be significant if it succeeds, and could mark a beginning of a larger conversation. However, the increasing cost of political and security paralysis in Lebanon, and the recognition among opposing camps of the need to step away from the Syrian abyss is the biggest advantage playing in favor of the deal.
Lebanon as testing ground
The deal itself came into the open two weeks ago following Hariri’s meeting with Franjieh in Paris. While the recipe for the deal is purely locally driven by Hariri and Franjieh themselves, it won’t materialize without Saudi and Iranian acquiescence. Such was the case when Lebanon formed a new government in February 2014, with the participation of both the Hezbollah and Hariri camps. Saudi Arabia and Iran dancing tango in Lebanon would be significant if it succeeds, and could mark a beginning of a larger conversation between the two in places like Syria and Yemen, despite the lower odds of success there. In Lebanon, both Saudi and Iran agree on the need to avert a bigger crisis and are prioritizing stability over political gains in the interim. Maintaining cold peace in Beirut while securing their influence could drive both countries into accepting the deal. In this context, Franjieh would be a safety net for Hezbollah, while Hariri remains Riyadh’s closest ally. The Franjieh-Hariri deal is also driven by mutual concern over the security situation and paralysis in Beirut, echoed by regional players and the United States. It comes on the heels of ISIS’ largest bombing in the Lebanese capital last month, targeting mostly Shiites. The reach of ISIS inside Beirut, and the sectarian polarization will only fester amidst the presidential void, and stagnation of legislative process. Following the Beirut bombing, a softer tone was heard from Hezbollah’s secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, pledging dialogue and calling for “a comprehensive political settlement on various levels within the existing frameworks and based on the Taif agreement.” Accepting Taif, which was negotiated in Saudi in 1989, is a key move from Hezbollah to extend a hand to its political rivals. From the Hariri side, the absence of a strong Sunni leadership on the helm of government, is backfiring on his party’s popularity and undermining the moderates in the community. Assuming the premiership while giving his rivals the presidency could help Hariri restore some of his lost influence, and ease sectarian tensions.
Franjieh’s resume
If Franjieh makes it as President with a nod from Lebanon’s Walid Jumblatt, it would be a repeat of history when his grandfather ascended to the presidency in 1970 with the support of Walid’s father, Kamal Jumblatt. Like other politicians in Lebanon, an instinct for survival marks Franjieh’s interrupted rise in politics, from the moment his parents and sister were massacred in 1978 while he was in boarding school at age 13, until his nomination to the highest Christian office. Following the assassination, his grandfather took him under his wings and helped Franjieh launch his political career, fighting during the war and establishing the “Marada” militia. His grandfather’s role was also instrumental in inviting the Syrian army into Lebanon in 1976, and until it was forced out in 2005 following the Hariri assassination. The Franjieh-Assad family ties go back as far as 1957. The two families have deep personal and business ties and Suleiman Franjieh is not shy about it. He calls Syrian President Bashar Assad "a brother", and has been a solid ally of Hezbollah and Iran since the 1980s. Following the 2006 war, Franjieh famously said that his generation should “take pride in living in the days of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah”. He also accused former Lebanese President Michel Suleiman of treachery, for turning against Hezbollah in last two years in office. Franjieh told MTV that Michel Suleiman interjected arms shipments to Hezbollah, and betrayed the party by going against its intervention in Syria.
Franjieh himself is promising unwavering support for Hezbollah, calling its military role in Syria “a necessity to counter the existential threat facing the Christians.” While he still refers to Assad as a “friend”, Franjieh has said that “whatever happens in Syria is not up to me or any Lebanese president.” It is fair to expect however, that if Franjieh is voted as president he would go far in defending Hezbollah and its intervention in Syria. His commitment to keep arms flowing to the party and his popularity amongst the Shia of Lebanon, would assure Hezbollah in the event that his forces leave Syria or if Assad is out of power. Franjieh’s defiant Christian rhetoric, calling to arm the minority if ISIS finds its way to Lebanon, and to increase the powers of the presidency, will be used to portray him as a “strong president” for the minority’s highest office in Lebanon. If the Franjieh-Hariri deal materializes in the weeks to come, it could shake up the internal Lebanese debate, and provide testing ground for a Saudi and Iranian detente. It is however a gamble for all sides involved, and could backfire if it ends up dragging Lebanon deeper into the Syrian war, inflaming sectarian tensions, or boosting Assad and derailing a settlement in Damascus

California shooting suspect ‘radicalized’
By Agencies Thursday, 3 December 2015/Syed Rizwan Farook, one of the two suspects in the mass shooting in a social services facility in Southern California that killed 14 on Wednesday, was apparently radicalized, though other factors may have played a role in his motive, CNN reported, citing law enforcement sources. Police said twelve pipe bomb-type devices had been found at Farook's home.The San Bernardino police chief Jarrod Burguan said that Syed Rizwan Farook, 28 and his female partner Tashfeen Malik, 27, had “sprayed the room with bullets,” and did not know if any one individual had been targeted. All four guns used the attack had been legally purchased, police added. The two had 1,600 rounds of ammunition in their possession. Citing other law enforcement officials, CNN reported that Farook had been in touch over the telephone and via social media with more than one international terrorism subject who was being investigated by the FBI.Farook and Malik, who had a 6-month-old daughter together, were killed in a shootout with police after Wednesday's massacre at the Inland Regional Center in the city of San Bernardino, a social services agency where Farook worked as an inspector. Earlier, U.S. President Barack Obama said the motivation for a deadly shooting in San Bernardino was not yet known, but a terror attack could not yet be ruled out. It is currently “way too early” to speculate on the motive, the FBI said. According to the police chief, Farook attended the party, held in the center and at some point stormed out, then returned with Malik to open fire on the celebration. The couple were dressed in assault-style clothing and also placed several bombs at various locations, which police detonated.
Deadliest rampage
The shooting rampage marked the deadliest U.S. gun violence since the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, in December 2012, in which 27 people, including the gunman, were killed. Wednesday’s carnage amplified concerns about gun violence and security in the wake of a deadly rampage on a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs last week and the attacks in Paris three weeks ago by ISIS militants that killed 130 people. So far in 2015, there have been more than 350 shootings in which four or more people were wounded or killed, according to the crowd-sourced website shootingtracker.com, which keeps a running tally of U.S. gun violence. The attack in San Bernardino, a largely working-class city 100 km east of Los Angeles, appeared to differ from other recent U.S. killing sprees in several ways, including the involvement of two people rather than a lone perpetrator.
‘Why would he do that?’ At a news conference called by the Los Angeles area chapter of the Muslim advocacy group Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the brother-in-law of Farook, Farhan Khan, said he was bewildered by the news. “Why would he do that? Why would he do something like this? I have absolutely no idea. I am in shock myself,” Khan said at the news conference in Anaheim, California, south of Los Angeles. Hussam Ayloush, executive director of CAIR in the Los Angeles area, said the couple had been missing since Wednesday morning and had a 6-month-old baby. The manhunt initially led police to a home in the neighboring town of Redlands, and that police pursued a suspected getaway vehicle that was seen leaving that address back to San Bernardino, where the shootout ensued. Ayloush told Reuters the couple left their 6 month-old-baby with Farook’s mother at that Redlands home early on Wednesday morning and told her they were going to attend a doctor’s appointment for Malik, who he called Farook’s wife of two years. Obama lamented the epidemic of gun violence that he said “has no parallel anywhere else in the world.” And he repeated his call for Congress to pass “common sense gun safety laws,” including tougher background checks for firearm sales.[AFP, Reuters]

U.S. congress mulls visa program changes after Paris attacks
AFP, Washington Thursday, 3 December 2015/Lawmakers were introducing legislation this week tightening the program that allows millions to travel to the United States without a visa, as Congress moves to enhance security following the deadly Paris attacks. “Now we’re looking at the Visa Waiver Program, those gaps and vulnerabilities in that,” number two House Republican Kevin McCarthy told CNN Wednesday. “You’ll see it roll out tomorrow” in the House of Representatives, he added on Fox, adding that it would be introduced on the floor of the chamber next week. The visa waiver program is available to citizens of 38 countries, largely U.S. allies and relatively stable developed democracies. Many are in Europe. Twenty million visitors annually use the program, which allows them to stay in country for 90 days and provides a boon to the U.S. economy. McCarthy said a key component would be restricting travelers who had been to Iraq or Syria, where Islamic State extremists have drawn thousands of foreign fighters. “Anyone who’s traveled to Iraq or Syria in the last five years should not be able to just do the online (application) and come to America,” he said. Senators introduced bipartisan legislation Tuesday aimed at preventing terrorists from abusing the program. The tourism sector is worried that imposing new procedures will discourage travel. The visa-free privilege enjoyed by most European countries including France means they fill out a detailed form online and pay a small fee, rather than apply at U.S. consulates. Their biographical details are cross-referenced with various security databases before they board a U.S.-bound flight. Weeks after the Paris attacks, the White House announced its own enhancements Monday, including capturing data on a visitor’s travel to any country “constituting a terrorist safe haven,” and calling for greater intelligence sharing with participating countries. Senators including Democrat Dianne Feinstein want to go further, adding into their legislation a requirement that visitors also submit fingerprints and photographs prior to travel. Today, fingerprints and photos of visa-free travelers are taken upon U.S. arrival. Imposing the new regulations could sabotage spontaneous U.S. tourism, warned Jonathan Grella, executive vice president of the U.S. Travel Association, who said the additional biometric requirements might be a “poison pill” in the legislation.

U.S. charges man over Muslim cab driver shooting
AFP, New York Thursday, 3 December 2015/U.S. police in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania have arrested and charged a 26-year-old man with shooting a Muslim cab driver in the back in the early hours of Thanksgiving, officials said Wednesday. Muslim activists allege the shooting was a hate crime, but police told AFP those charges were still under investigation. The victim was identified by a local newspaper as a 38-year-old Moroccan immigrant. His name has not been released and officials say he wishes to remain anonymous for fear of safety. Anthony Mohamed, 26, from Hazelwood, a neighborhood in Pittsburgh is charged with aggravated assault, criminal attempt homicide and recklessly endangering another person, police said. The driver told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the passenger asked whether he was from Pakistan and then talked about ISIS killing people. “I noticed that he changed his tone and he began to satirize Mohammad, my prophet,” he was quoted as saying by the paper. Police said Anthony Mohamed got into the taxi outside a casino at 1:13 AM on Nov. 26. He allegedly asked the driver to wait so he could get money to pay the fare, but returned a few minutes later with a rifle. As the victim drove off, he was shot in the back by a bullet that blew out the taxi’s rear window, police said. He was taken to hospital in a stable condition. Since the Paris attacks on Nov. 13, activists have warned against an unprecedented anti-Muslim backlash in America, fueled by right-wing intolerance in the presidential campaign.

All U.S. military positions to open to women, ‘no exceptions’
By AFP, Washington Friday, 4 December 2015/The U.S. military will open up all its positions -- including frontline combat roles -- to women, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter announced Thursday in a sweeping move that ends centuries of tradition. “I am announcing my decision ... to proceed with opening all these remaining occupations and positions to women,” Carter told reporters at the Pentagon. “There will be no exceptions.”The historic move trumps a Marine Corps recommendation that said mixed-gender combat units were not as effective as men-only groups. While acknowledging that, on average, physical differences exist between sexes, Carter said there are plenty of women who can meet rigorous physical standards -- just as there are some men who cannot. “Our force of the future must continue to benefit from the best people America has to offer,” Carter said. “In the 21st century, that requires drawing strength from the broadest possible pool of talent. This includes women ... We have to take full advantage of every individual who can meet our standards.”President Barack Obama’s administration in 2013 asked for all combat positions to be open to women by 2016, including the infantry, artillery, armor and special forces. But Obama gave the Pentagon the opportunity to request exceptions, provided these were justified by operational constraints. The changes will be implemented in 30 days time, Carter said.

Stranded migrants clash with police on Greek-Macedonian border
Reuters, Greece Thursday, 3 December 2015/Macedonian police fired tear gas at hundreds of mostly Pakistani migrants who tried to storm into the Balkan country from Greece on Wednesday demanding passage to northern Europe. About 1,500 Pakistanis, Moroccans and Iranians have been stuck in no-man’s land between Greece and Macedonia for weeks after non-EU Balkan states began filtering migrants and granting passage only to refugees fleeing Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Protests have swelled among desperate migrants stranded for days in squalid tent camps on the border near the Greek town of Idomeni in temperatures barely above freezing. Wednesday’s violence broke out after about 200 people were denied passage and began walking, for several kilometers (miles), alongside a newly erected border fence, seeking an alternative opening. Macedonian police fired tear gas to push back the crowd and one officer fired warning shots in the air, a Reuters witness said. At dusk, about 500 migrants blocked the crossing for refugees in protest shouting: “If we don’t cross, no one does!”. Police stood guard. Buses full of migrants and refugees who have landed in other cities in recent days kept arriving. Tensions had already boiled over at the weekend after one migrant, believed to be Moroccan, was electrocuted and badly burned when he climbed on top of a rail wagon. More than 800,000 people, most fleeing war, persecution and poverty in the Middle East, have arrived in Europe this year. The continent has struggled to cope with the unprecedented stream of people. The decision to screen migrants based on nationality has drawn criticism from human rights groups that argue asylum requests should be treated on merit. Greek Migration Minister Yannis Mouzalas said the government was trying to persuade the estimated 1,500 migrants stuck at the border to come to Athens and apply for asylum in Greece, saying there was accommodation available for them. Some had told Greek officials they were willing to return to their home countries, but the Pakistani government was not responding to requests to readmit them and the International Organization for Migration had no money to fly them home.

New analysis backs search area for flight MH370
The Associated Press, Canberra Thursday, 3 December 2015/Australian authorities have said on Thursday that new analysis confirms they’ve likely been searching in the right place for the ill-fated missing Malaysian airliner. Searchers have been combing a 120,000-square-kilometer (46,000-square-mile) part of the Indian Ocean since last year but have yet to turn up any trace of Flight 370. A wing flap was found in July on the other side of the Indian Ocean, washed up on remote Reunion Island. The new analysis by an agency of the Defense Department confirmed “the highest probability” the final resting place for the plane is within the current search area, the government said in a statement. Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss said the new analysis pointed to the aircraft most likely coming to rest in the southern part of the current search area, so searchers would focus on that location and slightly widen the boundaries of their search area there. “We remain hopeful, indeed optimistic, that we will still locate the aircraft. There’s around 44,000 square kilometers yet to be searched in this new priority area,” Truss said. He said the new analysis used a different methodology but came to the same conclusions about where to search, giving authorities “real encouragement” they were on the right track. He said China would soon contribute a ship and 20 million Australian dollars ($14.6 million) to the search effort, marking its first financial contribution. “We are particularly grateful for this commitment from China because that will help ensure that there are adequate finances,” Truss said. In total, the search is expected to cost 180 million Australian dollars, with Australia contributing AU$60 million and Malaysia contributing AU$100 million, he said. The Boeing 777 vanished with 239 people aboard on March 8, 2014, during a flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing. Authorities are baffled by how and why it disappeared. Among those who died were 153 Chinese nationals. The current seabed search more than 1,800 kilometers (1,100 miles) southwest of Australia began in October last year. Ships using side-scan sonar and an underwater drone fitted with a video camera have so far scoured more than 70,000 square kilometers (27,000 square miles) of rugged terrain. The search area is based on analysis of scant satellite information that tracked the final hours of Flight 370.

New Saudi policy – benefits and pragmatism
Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/December 03/15
Voices from Riyadh are echoing in the world’s capital cities as the Kingdom embarks upon a new policy rooted in shared interests and based on firmness, clarity and openness. A new innovative team is putting its stamp on Saudi policy and is grappling with changing conditions both regionally and internationally. Saudi policy is based on well-established foundations that begin with the Gulf as its first circle and the regional Arabic and Islamic arena as its second. The Kingdom is committed to the policy of good neighborliness, non-intervention in other countries’ internal affairs and not allowing others to intervene in its affairs. These foundations include supporting international safety and stability as well as playing a major role in regional and international organizations. The philosophy of Saudi policy includes linking its interests to the wider world as well as signaling its political pragmatism. However, the political means of achieving the goals has necessitated a new approach, including quick decision-making, and taking the initiative as a key pivotal leader in the region. At the same time, the political situation in the region has imposed a new reality here and also abroad. At the regional level, the joint Arab system has been massively hit by the so-called Arab Spring. Internationally, we see the decline of American interests in the region as a result of the changed priorities of US foreign policy.
Political pragmatism
The philosophy of Saudi policy includes linking its interests to the wider world as well as signaling its political pragmatism. That pragmatism means that the state looks out for its interest and power wherever possible. In turn, that leads to assessing the facts on the ground as a key factor in deciding whether ideas are practical and can be turned into reality. These changes in Saudi policy do not jeopardize its strategic foundations. The changes can be seen clearly in Saudi Arabia’s relations with others and the new development in relations in Syria is an example. The Saudi-Russian Investment Forum held in Russia last week resulted in an agreement to establish a $4 billion investment fund to finance mutual projects for developing economic and commercial ties between the two countries. Another agreement was made between the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) to invest $10 billion in Russian projects.These projects were a direct outcome of the visit to Moscow of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. At the same time, the country is strengthening its deep relations with Washington. King Salman’s visit to the U.S. in September led to large projects in cooperation with the U.S..
Saudi Arabia has also deepened its relations with France through identical political positions on regional issues, and establishing far-reaching economic ties during the recent Saudi-French Business Opportunities Forum in Riyadh.
Open to all
The idea is that Saudi interests are open to all, and that the Kingdom will take the lead whenever that benefits the Saudi people. A difference in viewpoint does not mean enmity. For example, the Saudi and Russian positions differ in regard to Syria but that difference will not stop the building of relationships and interests. The larger vision is wherever there are conflicting interests, politics will pave the way to economic benefits. The new Saudi vision has also spread to Africa where the Kingdom has improved its economic and political relations amidst an exchange of visits between leaders. Riyadh has attempted to fill political vacuums in an effort to prevent chaos. Saudi policy begins in the Gulf circle where the strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has led to genuine development in addressing the region’s problems and filling any possible political vacuum. The homogeneity and partnership of the two countries and other Gulf states in Operation Decisive Storm has shown that the Gulf shares a political ideology. The Gulf has the responsibility to manage its own affairs and will play a proactive part rather than only a reactive one. Yes, Saudi policy has adopted a new style, one with a difference. This is expected of states and countries which show the flexibility to adapt to changes and protect themselves from threats.

California police hunt gunmen after shooting
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Thursday, 3 December 2015/Police were hunting Wednesday for multiple gunmen who opened fire inside a social services building in San Bernardino in California, with reports of at least 14 dead and 14 injured. Although only 3 have so far been confirmed dead, a reporter with ABC 7 said that around 12 had been killed, and that SWAT teams were scouring the building. Several hundred people in the building at time of the shooting were safely evacuated, police said. A Washington D.C.-based affiliate of ABC reported, without attribution, that the shooting suspects may have left the scene in a black SUV. The FBI said it did not know if the shooting was a terrorist incident. Police shed no light on a motive. Local police say that the suspects - believed to be three in number - were wearing tactical gear. Authorities also sealed off the airspace around the scene, preventing news crews from obtaining aerial images. CBS News said on Twitter that a bomb squad had been dispatched to the scene to “immobilize what’s believed to be explosive device.”Police SWAT team members ride on a armored vehicle outside the Inland Regional Center in San Bernardino, California in this still image taken from video December 2, 2015. (Reuters) U.S. President Barack Obama, speaking about the mass shooting in California, said there are steps that can be taken to make Americans safer, CBS News reported. He also called on bipartisan efforts to halt gun violence. The San Bernardino center was hosting an event when more than one gunman burst into the room and began firing, said a police spokeswoman. A still image from a video footage courtesy of Nbcla.com shows first responders responding to a shooting (AP) As the manhunt went on, stores, office buildings and at least one school were locked down in the city of 214,000 people about 96 kilometers east of Los Angeles. Paul Lacroix said his son was able to escape after gunfire erupted at the center. Lacroix told reporters Wednesday that his son texted him and told him alarms started going off and they got word there was shooting. He said his son was sheltered with a group of people before they managed to get out. Authorities say multiple people were shot at the Inland Regional Center in San Bernardino. Rescue crews tend to the injured in the intersection outside the Inland Regional Center in San Bernardino, California in this still image taken from video December 2, 2015. (AP) Heavily armed SWAT teams, firefighters and ambulances swarmed the scene, located about an hour east of Los Angeles, as police warned residents away. “San Bernardino Fire Department units responding to reports of 20 victim shooting incident in 1300 block of S. Waterman. SBPD is working to clear the scene,” the city fire department said on Twitter. “Area remains VERY ACTIVE. AVOID!” tweeted the local sheriff department, which confirmed there were “multiple victims.”Police said that one to three possible suspects were involved. Obama was briefed on Wednesday on a mass shooting in the Southern California city of San Bernardino, a White House official said. “The president has been briefed by his Homeland Security Adviser Lisa Monaco about the shooting in San Bernardino and has asked to be updated on the situation as it develops,” the official said. CBS evening news reported that the shooting took place at Inland Regional Center, which assists people with developmental disabilities. The shooting comes just days after a lone gunman killed three people during a standoff at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado.

Russia’s top diplomat says no meddling in Cyprus peace talks
The Associated Press, Nicosia Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Russia’s foreign minister has warned against any bid to fix a deadline on ongoing talks aimed at reunifying ethnically split Cyprus, suggesting that foreign meddling in the process will not work. Sergey Lavrov, visiting Cyprus Wednesday, says attempts to impose artificial deadlines and “so-called impartial mediation efforts” in previous rounds of negotiations have “proven not to be fruitful.” The Russian official says his country fully backs the United Nations-brokered talks and the U.N. Security Council will “play the main role” in endorsing any deal. Cyprus was divided in 1974 when Turkey invaded after a coup aimed at uniting the island with Greece. Talks between Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek Cypriot president of the internationally recognized Cypriot government, and breakaway Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci, have shown progress since resuming last May.

Turkey, Russia FMs Meet for First Talks after Warplane Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/15/The foreign ministers of Turkey and Russia met in Belgrade on Thursday in the first high-level bilateral talks since the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkish jets sparked an unprecedented crisis. The meeting between Russia's Sergei Lavrov and Turkey's Mevlut Cavusoglu was held on the sidelines of the ministerial council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Cavusoglu expressed Ankara's condolences over the death of the Russian pilot. "We expressed our sadness and expressed our condolences for the Russian pilot who lost his life," Turkish media quoted Cavusoglu as saying after meeting Lavrov. Cavusoglu praised the mood of the talks but gave no indication of a breakthrough on ending the crisis. "It's important to keep the channels of dialogue open," he said. "On both sides there is a desire not to escalate the tensions. I am sure that common sense will win over emotion."But he added: "It would not be realistic to say that the problems have been overcome in a first meeting."Russia has in the last days also accused Ankara of importing oil from Islamic State jihadists in Syria, allegations that Turkey fiercely denies. "We gave our response to the claims that have been raised," Cavusoglu said after the talks. "Our hope is that they will give up their baseless claims." In comments broadcast on Russian television, Lavrov also confirmed that there had been no breakthrough. "We met with Mr. Cavusoglu... We did not hear anything new. The Turkish minister confirmed the positions which they have already voiced. We confirmed our views," Lavrov said. Two Turkish F-16 jets shot down a Russian plane on November 24 which Ankara said violated its airspace. Russia insists that the plane did not cross from Syria and accused Turkey of a deliberate provocation. The plane incident has plunged the two countries' relationship into a crisis, with Russia demanding an official apology from the Turkish leadership. Lavrov canceled a scheduled meeting to Istanbul on November 25 and urged Russian citizens to avoid any travel to Turkey, a top tourist destination for many Russian tourists.Russian President Vladimir Putin snubbed an offer from Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the climate summit in Paris early this week.

Kerry Calls for Syrian, Arab Ground Troops against IS
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/15/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Thursday for Syrian and Arab ground troops to take on Islamic State fighters to enable a complete defeat of the organization. "I think we know it, that without the ability to find some ground forces that are prepared to take on Daesh (IS), this will not be won completely from the air," Kerry told delegates a gathering of dozens of foreign ministers in Belgrade. When asked later whether he was referring to Western or Syrian ground forces, he said: "Syrian and Arab, as we have been consistently". Washington is however due to send 50 U.S. special forces into Syria soon. His comments at the annual ministerial council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) came after Britain's parliament voted late on Wednesday to join the U.S.-led bombing campaign over Syria. The last round of Syria peace talks were held in Vienna last month, bringing together 17 countries including Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The talks set a fixed calendar for a ceasefire followed by a transitional government in six months and elections one year later, but Syrian opposition figures have called this unrealistic.
"If we get the political transition in place we empower every nation and every entity to come together, the Syrian army together with the opposition... together with Russia, the United States and others to go and fight (against) Daesh," Kerry said in Belgrade. "Just imagine how quickly this scourge could be eliminated in a matter of literally months if we were able to secure that kind of political resolution."In Brussels on Wednesday, Kerry had urged NATO allies to intensify the fight against the IS group.

Putin Swears to Make Turkey Regret Plane Downing
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/15/Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday vowed Turkey's leadership would be made to regret the downing of one of Russia's warplanes as Moscow announced a halt to talks on a major gas pipeline project. As Putin fired another salvo in his mounting war of words with NATO member Turkey his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared he had "proof" that Russia was involved in illegal oil trading with the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria. Turkey has become Moscow's prime international sparring partner after it shot down a Russian jet on its border with Syria on November 24 -- sparking fury in Russia and economic sanctions from the Kremlin. Erdogan's allegations of Russian complicity with IS echo allegations made by Putin against Turkey and its leader in recent days. "We will not forget this complicity with terrorists. We always considered and will always consider treachery to be the ultimate and lowest act. Let those in Turkey who shot our pilots in the back know this," Putin told lawmakers in his annual state of the nation speech, which also focused on Russia's airstrikes in Syria. Russia has accused Erdogan and his family of personally profiting from the oil trade with Islamic State, which controls a large chunk of Syrian territory, including a number of oil fields. "We know for example who in Turkey fills their pockets and allows terrorists to make money from the stolen oil in Syria," Putin said. "It is precisely with this money that the bandits recruit mercenaries, buy arms and organize inhuman terrorist acts aimed against our citizens, the citizens of France, Lebanon, Mali and other countries." Erdogan has furiously denied the allegations against him and his family and said Turkey had proof that Russia was, in fact, involved in trading oil with IS. "We have the proof in our hands. We will reveal it to the world," the Turkish leader said in a televised speech in Ankara. Putin, whose administration has already announced sanctions against Ankara, including a ban on the import of some Turkish foods and reintroducing visas for visitors from the country, insisted Turkey would be made to regret its actions. "We will not rattle our sabers. But if someone thinks that after committing heinous war crimes, the murder of our people, it will end with (an embargo on) tomatoes and limitations in construction and other fields then they are deeply mistaken," Putin said. "We will not stop reminding them of what they did and they will not stop regretting their actions."Immediately after the speech Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak announced the suspension of talks between Ankara and Moscow over the major TurkStream pipeline project.
Negotiations over the project to pipe Russian gas to Turkey under the Black Sea have been floundering since Moscow launched air strikes in Syria in late September in support of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, which Ankara fiercely opposes. But the official announcement of the break-off in the talks dealt another blow to floundering Russian-Turkish ties, as Putin lamented the damage to a relationship that he has spent years nurturing. "Only Allah, most likely, knows why they did this. And evidently Allah decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey by depriving them of their intelligence and reason," he said. The latest furious exchange comes as the two countries' top diplomats gear up for their first face-to-face meeting since the plane incident. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was due to hold talks later Thursday with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu on the sidelines of a conference in Belgrade after Putin on Monday snubbed Erdogan at the U.N. climate summit in Paris. There appears, however, little chance that the two sides will lower the tone as the two strongmen leaders insist the other should apologize over the incident. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Thursday accused Moscow of running a "Soviet propaganda machine". "There was a Soviet propaganda machine in the Cold War era," Davutoglu told reporters in Ankara. "They were called Pravda lies," he said, referring to the daily newspaper that was the mouthpiece of the Communist Party.

UK Bombs IS Oil Field in Syria after MPs Vote for Strikes
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/15/Britain joined the US-led bombing campaign over Syria on Thursday, hitting an oil field held by Islamic State jihadists just hours after a decisive parliamentary vote authorized air strikes. Royal Air Force planes based in Cyprus carried out the "first offensive operation against Daesh terrorist targets inside Syria," the defense ministry said in a statement, using an alternative name for IS. The strikes with Paveway guided bombs were carried out by four Tornado fighter jets and focused on targets in the Omar oil field in eastern Syria, 30 miles (48 kilometers) from the Iraq border. The field "represents over 10 percent of their potential income from oil," the ministry statement said, adding: "Initial analysis of the operation indicates that the strikes were successful." "We are going to need to be patient and persistent. This is going to take time," Cameron said. "There will be strong support from our allies because they wanted us to join them in taking this action." U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Francois Hollande said they welcomed Britain's move. Momentum to join the strikes grew after last month's terror attack on Paris in which 130 people were killed and Hollande on Thursday hailed a "new response to the call for European solidarity."Russia is also conducting its own air strikes on Syria in alliance with Syrian forces and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies there should now be a single coalition to improve the "effectiveness" of the air campaign. Prime Minister David Cameron's government was backed by 397 lawmakers with 223 opposing the bombing in a vote late on Wednesday after a sometimes raucous debate lasting more than 10 hours. A wide range of MPs including main opposition Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn spoke out against air strikes, condemning Cameron's "ill thought-out rush to war" and saying his proposals "simply do not stack up."But Labor's own chief foreign affairs spokesman Hilary Benn delivered an impassioned speech in favor of bombing, illustrating deep divisions in the party. In the end, 66 of Labor's 231 MPs voted in favor, including 11 members of Corbyn's shadow cabinet. Cameron also refused to apologize to opposition MPs for reportedly telling fellow Conservatives in a private meeting ahead of the vote they should not side with "a bunch of terrorist sympathizers."
'Important symbolically'
Britain already has eight Tornado fighter jets plus drones involved in the U.S.-led coalition striking IS targets in Iraq, operating out of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. They will be joined by six Typhoon jets, which took off from RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland, and two more Tornado fighters, which took off from RAF Marham in southeast England. But experts question how much Britain, which has been wary of joining foreign conflicts in recent years after unpopular wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, would add to the campaign against IS in Syria. "It will not make a big operational difference," said Professor Malcolm Chalmers of military think-tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). "It is important symbolically, useful operationally, but not transformative."
'Plotting to kill us'
Cameron has pledged that Britain joining air strikes on Syria will be matched by a major diplomatic push to resolve the crisis. The last Syria peace talks in Vienna held last month brought together 17 countries including Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The talks set a fixed calendar for a ceasefire followed by a transitional government in six months and elections one year later. Syrian opposition figures have called this unrealistic. During the debate, the government also faced a string of questions about whether joining the international military action on Syria could make Britain more vulnerable to attacks from IS. The last major attack on British soil was the July 7, 2005 bombings in which 52 people died. And in June this year, 30 Britons were among 38 tourists killed in an attack at a holiday resort in Tunisia claimed by IS. Officials say seven plots have been foiled by intelligence services in the last year alone. Cameron said this figure showed it was right to take immediate action. "These terrorists are plotting to kill us and radicalize our children right now," he said. "They attack us because of who we are, not because of what we do."

Al Azhar Cannot Denounce ISIS of Being Un-Islamic—Even If ISIS Commits “Every Atrocity”
By Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/December 03/15
During an open discussion at Cairo University held on December 2, Dr. Ahmed al-Tayeb, the Sheikh and Grand Imam of Al Azhar — and thus Egypt’s foremost authority on all things Islam — was again asked why Al Azhar refuses to issue a formal statement denouncing the Islamic State of lapsing into a state of kufr, that is, of becoming un-Islamic, “infidel.”In response, Tayeb said that the only way Al Azhar could do this is if a Muslim formally rejected the fundamental principles of Islam, such as the shahada—that there is no god but Allah and Muhammad is his messenger—and Islamic scriptures. He then rhetorically asked what would be the situation (according to Sharia) of a Muslim who accepts the fundamentals of Islam but who also commits great sins, such as drinking alcohol: would they be denounced as “infidels”? Sheikh Al Azhar responded by saying that it depends on the various views of the Sunni schools of Islamic jurisprudence (primarily the four madhahib). Some say that such a Muslim (who drinks or commits other sins) becomes an infidel while others are unsure and leave his fate to Allah. Tayeb then quoted Koran 5:33: “Indeed, the penalty for those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and strive upon earth [to cause] corruption is none but that they be killed or crucified or that their hands and feet be cut off from opposite sides or that they be exiled from the land. That is for them a disgrace in this world; and for them in the Hereafter is a great punishment.”
However, Tayib concluded by saying, “Al Azhar cannot accuse any [Muslim] of being a kafir [infidel], as long as he believes in Allah and the Last Day—even if he commits every atrocity,” adding: “I cannot denounce ISIS as un-Islamic, but I can say that they cause corruption on earth. ISIS believes that those [Muslims] who commit the great sins are kafirs and can be killed. Thus if I denounce them of being un-Islamic, I fall into the same [trap] I am now condemning.”
As critics point out, however, Al Azhar is often quick to denounce as “infidels”—or at least “blasphemers”—those secular Muslims who merely critique portions of the Islamic heritage. Yet here is the Islamic world’s most prestigious university refusing to denounce ISIS as un-Islamic–even as most Western politicians, at their head U.S. President Obama, insist that ISIS “is not Islamic.”In short, Tayeb’s comments further bolster the argument in Egypt that Al Azhar sees “liberal” Muslims as more dangerous and un-Islamic than ISIS — which should not be surprising considering that many former students have denounced the Muslim world’s most renowned university for teaching and legitimizing all the atrocities that ISIS commits.

Larijani hopes to expand his political power
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
On the occasion of Parliament Day, Majles Speaker Ali Larijani spoke to reporters about his hope to establish a new political organization, the February 2016 elections and US-Iranian relations. Larijani said that he is trying to create a political organization out of the Followers of the Leader, a parliamentary faction. With approximately 170 members, it is the largest faction in the 290-member parliament. The Followers hold key positions within the parliamentary leadership and on important committees. While technically a conservative group, it has supported moderate policies and has been instrumental in its backing of the administration of President Hassan Rouhani. If allowed to form a political organization, the group would have greater organizational capabilities outside parliament to recruit members, develop a leadership structure and launch its own newspapers and media outlets. Larijani said that official campaigning has not yet begun for the 2016 parliamentary elections, but that some of the political blocks are already engaged in organizing activities. Iran does not have official parties, and the various factions and political groups at times have fluid memberships. Addressing this issue, Larijani said, “The structure of elections in the country is more MP centered than party centered.” He also said that the categorization of “conservative, Reformist and moderate” is inaccurate in today’s political climate. On reports that he might form a political coalition with Reformists, Larijani said, “I have also heard this in the media, but it has been nothing more than [media reports].” On whether Reformists have attempted to “appropriate” conservatives such as himself and Ali Akbar Nategh-Nuri, he said, “We are not property to be appropriated … They should not think this way.” Based on the transcript, it was not clear whether the journalist had intentionally asked a leading question, but many hard-liners are concerned that Reformists might attempt to use the political backing of moderate conservatives to enter parliament. Larijani confirmed that he had met Nov. 25 with Ali Akbar Velayati, foreign policy adviser to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Nategh-Nuri and Ayatollah Morteza Moghtadai, deputy chairman of the Society of Seminary Teachers at Qom. The conversation revolved around finding “qualified individuals for parliament” to address domestic issues. According to Larijani, although Iran has been doing well regionally and internationally, “economic issues require more attention.”Some analysts believe that the meeting was held to discuss a strategy to “eliminate extremists” from the next parliament, in particular members of the hard-line Endurance Front who have repeatedly clashed with Larijani in the legislature. Larijani spoke positively about this parliament’s cooperation with the current administration. “There are brotherly relations between the two branches,” he said. “This administration has observed the law much better.” Larijani had had such a contentious relationship with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the latter once played an audio recording on the floor of parliament accusing Larijani’s brother of being involved in a bribery scandal. Larijani added that while relations are better with the Rouhani administration, “the independence of the branches must be protected.” On Iranian-US relations, Larijani said that if the United States altered its antagonistic behavior toward Iran, then Iran would change its behavior as well. He said that Ayatollah Khamenei takes a similar position with respect to the United States.

New report confirms Iran's nuclear weapons program
Barbara Slavin/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
Far from being the whitewash some had predicted, a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) states clearly that Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003 and continued some research for six more years. The highly anticipated document on the possible military dimensions (PMD) of the Iranian nuclear program, however, broke little new ground in terms of what the international intelligence community already knew. Experts said the findings are unlikely to impede implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) curbing Iran's nuclear program for at least a decade in return for relief of economic sanctions. Gary Samore, a nuclear expert at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, told Al-Monitor in an email that the IAEA report "is a very solid technical judgment by the IAEA, not intimidated by Iran's threats."
"The real question," Samore continued, is how the IAEA Board of Governors reacts to the report, especially whether the Board decides that the PMD investigation is essentially completed." Under an agreement between Iran and the IAEA, the agency’s 35-member board is to reach a decision by Dec. 15. A positive vote will clear the way for full implementation of the nuclear accord early next year. A State Department spokesman, Mark Toner, told reporters that the IAEA report “is consistent” with past US intelligence assessments and that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, which negotiated the JCPOA with Iran, would be submitting a resolution “with a view toward closing the PMD issue. And then, after that, we can focus on implementing the JCPOA.”
Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told Al-Monitor that the most significant conclusions were that the IAEA found no evidence that Iran had diverted nuclear material from its civilian program to weapons and that Iran had abandoned military nuclear research after 2009. She added that the findings, “while providing significant detail, don’t mean that Iran is off the hook. The agency will continue to follow up on allegations of illicit activities as it works toward formulating a broader conclusion” about the Iranian program. Iran’s initial reaction was also positive. Chief nuclear negotiator and Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was quoted by the Iranian state news agency as saying that the report “confirms that Iran’s program was peaceful.”
Contrary to Araghchi’s remark, however, the IAEA’s key overall assessment was that Iran conducted “a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device … prior to the end of 2003 as a coordinated effort, and some activities took place after 2003.” According to the agency, “These activities did not advance beyond feasibility and scientific studies and the acquisition of certain relevant technical competences and capabilities.” There are “no credible indications of activities in Iran relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device after 2009,” the IAEA said.
Iran has always denied having a nuclear weapons program, but former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani stated in a recent interview that Iran considered acquiring a nuclear deterrent during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, when Iraq was attacking Iran with chemical weapons and Iranian authorities feared Saddam Hussein was close to developing nuclear bombs. According to Rafsanjani, “We were at war and we sought to have that possibility for the day the enemy might use a nuclear weapon. That was the thinking. But it never became real.” According to an internal IAEA document obtained by nuclear expert David Albright, then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1984 authorized then-Iranian President [now Supreme Leader Ayatollah] Ali Khamenei to resume nuclear work that began under the shah’s regime but was suspended by Khomeini after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Iran procured materials and technical information from pre-revolutionary suppliers including members of a nuclear black market assembled by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. In 1987, according to Albright, Khan provided Iran with a “starter kit” including drawings of rudimentary centrifuges used to enrich uranium for nuclear fuel. Iran later received help from China and Russia in further developing its uranium program, which was discovered in 2002. That led to a series of IAEA probes and eventually UN Security Council resolutions against Iran. The IAEA report tracks closely with the conclusions of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate by the US government that until 2003 “Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.”According to the IAEA, Iran confirmed “a significant proportion of the information available to the Agency on the existence of organizational structures” prior to 2003. “The Agency assesses that, before the end of 2003, an organizational structure was in place in Iran suitable for the coordination of a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device,” the IAEA said. “Although some activities took place after 2003, they were not part of a coordinated effort.”
The report also said it found no evidence that Iran tried to procure materials illegally for nuclear weapons after 2007. Under an agreement with the IAEA put in place by the government of President Hassan Rouhani, Iran stepped up its cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog on PMD issues in 2013 after years of stonewalling, but provided answers that the IAEA did not always regard as convincing. In a number of areas, the two sides basically agreed to disagree. For example, the agency did not accept Iran’s contention that work on so-called exploding bridge wire (EBW) detonators was for non-nuclear purposes. “The Agency assesses that EBW detonators developed by Iran have characteristics relevant to a nuclear explosive device. The Agency acknowledges that there is a growing use of EBW detonators for civilian and conventional military purposes,” the report said. The IAEA also assessed that on explosives technology known as multipoint initiation, Iran’s work had “characteristics relevant to a nuclear explosive device, as well as to a small number of alternative applications.” Considerable attention has been devoted over the years to Iran’s activities at a military site near Tehran called Parchin, where Iran is alleged to have installed an explosives firing chamber in 2000. The report says that Iran’s explanations about activities there are inconsistent with IAEA samplings and other evidence, and that extensive work to reconfigure the site since 2012 “seriously undermined the Agency’s ability to conduct effective verification.”
On the positive side, however, the IAEA found “no indications of Iran having conducted activities which can be directly traced” to a document about uranium metal for bombs said to be in Iran’s possession “or to design information for a nuclear explosive device from the clandestine nuclear supply network.”
Critics of the nuclear deal with Iran were quick to pounce on the findings as evidence that Iran lied about its program and thus is not to be trusted going forward. Supporters, however, said that Iran was never expected fully to come clean about its past nuclear work, especially in light of Khamenei’s religious ruling that nuclear weapons violate the tenets of Islam. As former nuclear negotiator Robert Einhorn wrote recently, “While a truthful confession would be valuable, it is not necessary for a sound agreement. More important than hearing Iran's version of the past is having confidence that nuclear weapons will not be pursued in the future.”Davenport added that the multilayered approach to verification in the JCPOA “provides the strongest guarantee that any violations will be quickly detected and … that Iran’s program remains peaceful.”

Will Israel, Russia tighten coordination on Syria?
Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
“We [Israel] conduct occasional operations in Syria in order to prevent it from becoming a front against us … and to thwart the transfer of lethal weapons, particularly from Syria to Lebanon,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a public event in Acre on the afternoon of Dec. 1. It was the first time that any official Israeli source, and the prime minister no less, publicly admitted that Israel was militarily active in Syrian territory.On Nov. 29, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon told Israeli public radio that a Russian fighter jet had recently penetrated Israeli airspace "accidentally." Ya’alon said, “The jet penetrated about a mile into our territory." He added, "We established radio contact with it and it immediately returned to Syrian airspace.”In a “Sabbath Culture” event on Nov. 28, the director of the Ministry of Defense political-military bureau, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos Gilad, said that brief penetrations such as those by Russian pilots into Israeli airspace have happened a few times recently. The Russian pilots are immediately informed of this by radio and go back the way they came, without any incidents, he noted. Things are heating up along the Russian-Turkish front, with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan exchanging barbs and threats. At the same time, interesting things are happening on an equally sensitive and no less interesting front, in other words, where the Syrian and Lebanese airspaces meet Israel. As if there weren’t already enough players in the region to stir things up and complicate matters, they have recently been joined by the Russian army in full force, including massive air power, significant naval power and, most recently, S-400 anti-aircraft batteries. The range of the latter covers the entire region, meaning that any Israeli aircraft taking off there can be detected and shot down by Russian crews. Nevertheless, despite all of that, the Russians and Israelis are on the same page, at least for now. They see eye to eye about the situation, coordinate their activities in real time, respect each other and give each other the space they need. Israel does it mainly because it has no choice in the matter. Russia does it because it neither needs nor wants to open yet another front, in addition to all the other fronts it already opened up in the region.
Netanyahu and Putin met in Paris at the margins of the Climate Conference on Nov. 30. Officials privy to the content of that meeting, speaking on condition of anonymity, called it “helpful and friendly.” On Nov. 28, I asked Knesset member Avigdor Liberman about his thoughts on this complex situation. Liberman, a former foreign minister, is now Netanyahu’s sharpest critic from the opposition benches. He is also an expert on Russian affairs, having immigrated to Israel from the Soviet Union in the late 1970s. He said, “We have full coordination in real time with Russian ground forces and the Russian air force. There is an open line of communication between us, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. I hope we don’t find ourselves in the same situation as the Turks found themselves with the Russians. I see no reason for that to happen though. Everything the Russians have been signaling seems to focus on close cooperation. Just this week, Putin extended sentencing for anti-Semitic acts in Russia. They want to import more Israeli vegetables. They tell us that we’re not involved [in the conflict], at least as far as they are concerned. Russia has no problem with us. They are dealing with other interests.” The problem is that sometimes these other interests could run counter to Israel’s interests. While the Israeli security establishment has come to appreciate Russian involvement on Israel’s northern border, it is also concerned about it. Netanyahu’s public admission that Israel has launched attacks in Syria was hardly some chance occurrence. While Netanyahu has a reputation for his off-the-cuff remarks on security matters, this time everything he said was planned in advance. Israel wants security coordination with the Russians to take place on the ground as well, and not only in the air.
In various talks between the parties, including the conversation between Putin and Netanyahu, Israel made it perfectly clear that if any arms that could disrupt the delicate balance of power (tiebreaking weapons) are transferred from East to West — i.e., from Iran via Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Hezbollah — it would consider that to be a casus belli. So far, whenever Israel identified such a transfer of arms, it attacked, claim foreign news sources, usually on the Syrian side, since the ability to act defensively there tends to zero. Then suddenly, the Russian bear entered the equation. It knows how to defend itself, and to attack as well. The big question is what will happen the next time that Israeli aircraft, manned or not, fly over one of those arms convoys and are picked up on radar by the Russian anti-aircraft batteries. All the parties hope that things will work out, but reality has rules of its own. Sometimes events on the ground dictate how the political level responds, and not the other way around.
“The situation is very complicated,” explained one high-ranking Israeli security official, talking on condition of anonymity. “The Russians came here to help the Shiite axis, which is considered by Israel to pose the most serious threat. As a result, they are not serving our interests here, at least ostensibly. At the same time, however,” the source continued, “the Russians can understand our need to prevent various weapons from reaching Hezbollah. Besides, Putin is weakening Erdogan now, which also benefits us. As such, the situation is very fickle and volatile, with nothing clearly defined. Enemies used to be obvious. Interests used to be obvious, too. Everything was defined and determined in advance. Today, you frequently find yourself caught in the same boat as your sworn enemies; interests cross, but they also conflict. There is no beginning and no end to it.”
And we haven’t even mentioned economic interests yet. Despite the bitter animosity between Israel and Turkey, a situation could soon emerge in which Netanyahu and Erdogan find themselves on the same natural gas platform. According to experts, tensions between the Russians and the Turks could torpedo plans for a huge southern gas pipeline that Russia wanted to run through Turkey. The Turks, for their part, have recently been signaling that they want Israeli gas, extracted from the extensive natural gas fields discovered off the Israeli coast. A major project to develop an Israeli gas pipeline, in cooperation with Cyprus and possibly Greece, would send the gas to a terminal in Turkey, from where it would be exported across Europe. Plans for such a pipeline have recently begun to tickle the imagination of the leaders of all the aforementioned states. In fact, on Nov. 25, Netanyahu met with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to discuss the topic. Should something come of this project, interests could be reversed yet again. Until that happens, however, the Israel Defense Forces are looking northward with considerable consternation. So far, Israel has been focused on the Shiite-Alawite axis of evil, with Sunni terrorism percolating in the surrounding areas. Now a new player has entered the equation, a substantial, significant player at that, which is changing both the rules of the game and the balance of power. The problem is that no one yet knows if this change is good or bad.

Tony Blair's blunder on Middle East peace
Ahmad Melhem/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
RAMALLAH, West Bank — Tony Blair has kicked off his personal campaign of seeking peace between Israel and the Palestinians, but Palestinian Authority members and others have bluntly expressed their distrust of the former British prime minister and former envoy of the Middle East Quartet.Palestinian leaders are clear about their resentment of Blair. During a Nov. 9 meeting with a group of Egyptian journalists in Cairo, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas attacked Blair and called him a “spy” for Israel because of his attempts to conclude an appeasement agreement between Hamas and Israel, while ignoring the PA. “Abbas has been refusing to meet with Blair for two years because of his pro-Israeli negative role,” political sources in the PA told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. The PA was suspicious of Blair when he was the envoy of the Middle East Quartet in 2011 and accused him of using the Quartet to “achieve Israel’s demands only, satisfy it and reflect its stances. The PA also accused Blair of adopting Israel’s 2011 demands. They accused him of ignoring Palestinians’ rights, lobbying to forbid Palestine from joining the UN, ignoring the need for the involvement of the PA in the negotiations and asking Palestinians to recognize the Judaism of Israel. In this context, the youth took to the streets of Ramallah on Oct. 26, 2011, and marched to demand that the PA dismiss Blair. But Blair notes how much things have changed in the past few years. Arab nations and Israelis now share common enemies: terrorism and extremism. “There is an objective shared interest between Arabs and Israelis. The Palestinian issue is the key which opens this door,” he said on his official website. Blair's plan, which he announced Nov. 13 in Jerusalem, uses the framework of the Arab peace initiative launched in 2002. The initiative stipulates the establishment of a Palestinian state according to the 1967 borders and Israel’s withdrawal from the occupied Arab territories in exchange for a conclusive normalization of relations between the Arab states and Israel. Yet, the Palestinians still do not welcome Blair’s plan. “He no longer occupies any position related to negotiations or the peace process,” Saeb Erekat, secretary-general of the PLO’s Executive Committee and head of its Negotiations Affairs Department, told Al-Monitor. “His role in the peace negotiations and process ended. Therefore, we do not deal with him anymore.”
Ahmed Majdalani, secretary-general of the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front and a member of the PLO Executive Committee, called Blair’s plan “just a new game and deceitful political propaganda to mislead the international public opinion.”However, on his website Blair says his plan can create “trust and credibility” between Israelis and Palestinians if three conditions are met:
“First, the involvement of the Arab powers in such a process is essential and long overdue. The Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 was a landmark event. Of course it needs revision … but its framework offers a way to negotiate where both Israel and the Palestinians have the confidence that the negotiations are supported by the region as a whole.”Second, he says, “Life on the ground for Palestinians has to improve radically, and immediately. … Gaza lacks even the basic infrastructure for electricity, sanitation, clean drinking water and housing.” He also calls for more than 100,000 jobs to be created every year over the next decade. “There is a virtual consensus on what needs to happen to improve daily life — in Gaza and the West Bank. These are not things with security implications. In fact, improving Palestinians’ living conditions would serve Israel’s security. We need to agree [on] them and do them.
“Without significant and real change in the way Palestinians live, there is no hope for a political process."
Finally, he said, “There will be no lasting peace without Palestinian reconciliation and unity on a basis that supports the two-state solution, where Israel is secure and the Palestinian state is viable.” Fatah spokesman Osama al-Qawasmi, however, said Blair’s words are empty. “Blair does not represent any official side [anymore]. He only expresses his own thoughts. He is now a messenger for Israel, just like he sponsored its interests in the past,” he told Al-Monitor. “Blair is a suspicious figure, and Palestinians do not welcome him at all.” The PA’s anger at Blair flared up in the past few months when the latter reportedly met with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal several times during July and August in Doha seeking a long-term truce between Hamas and Israel — without including the PA. The PA thinks Blair is trying to marginalize it by communicating directly with Hamas and believes that this approach will only widen the Palestinian rift and encourage the establishment of a state in the Gaza Strip only. But Blair would not confirm he had met with Hamas, saying only, “What I have found since leaving the Quartet role is it has been easier to have conversations of complete frankness with people. And since I have the relationships, people may be prepared to be more forthcoming.” On Sept. 4, Hamas refused a proposal Blair reportedly had made to ratify a long-term truce with Israel in exchange for lifting the Gaza blockade and building a port under Israel’s control. Hamas leader Yahya Moussa told Al-Monitor, “Hamas refused Blair’s efforts to conclude a truce with Israel because such an agreement does not fulfill Palestinians’ rights. He is now seeking to propose new initiatives that aim at halting the intifada and reshuffling the Palestinian cards.”Ahmad Youssef, a former Hamas leader and adviser, told Al-Monitor, “Blair is nothing to us. Nobody is counting on him in any issue or step. Hamas does not take him seriously because he is not a decent mediator who has the Palestinians’ credibility. Blair’s efforts have gone down the drain, and Hamas has shut its doors in his face."

Is UNHCR in Jordan discriminating against Sudanese refugees?
Adam Lucente/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
Since Nov. 4, around 200 Sudanese refugees have been protesting at the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Amman, Jordan. Having escaped the harrowing conflict in their homeland, these refugees are protesting a lack of employment and education rights, racial violence and perhaps most of all, allegedly less assistance than that provided to Syrian and Iraqi refugees by the UNHCR. The protests have since become a daily occurrence. Protesters have set up 20 or so tents in the UNHCR’s parking lot, where they intend to stay until a solution is reached or they are forced to leave. On the other hand, the UNHCR's External Relations department believes it is doing all it can to help the Sudanese community. “Rise, rise, human rights,” a protester led a crowd of around 200 in chanting on Nov. 15. The protesters make several claims against the UNHCR, including an alleged lack of significant resettlement. “People spend a long time — sometimes four to seven years — without resettlement,” Ali Yahya told Al-Monitor at a protest, removing the brown duct tape covering his mouth. The demonstrators stood with their mouths taped shut. “At this protest we are silent. We have no voice,” said Nizar Idris, one of the organizers. “We want to travel and leave. Jordan is dangerous for us,” said Idris, in a reference to recurring violent attacks against Sudanese in Amman. He spoke amid a display of American, British, German, Australian and other flags, hoisted by the protesters to show the countries they hope to travel to.
They further criticize an apparent lack of services from the UNHCR. “Only the disabled get services. The UN says, ‘You’re a strong guy; you need to work,’” Yahya added.
Another protester, Faisal Babaker, claims he went to the UNHCR to request financial help for a surgery. “They told me my situation was not deserving of help. But I’m a refugee; I can’t work. I lose hope,” he said. Faisal is not sure what he can do aside from asking for assistance. “We can’t work, so how can we survive? We’re in a miserable situation,” he added. Many of Jordan’s refugees work illegally, having failed to obtain work permits as foreigners. Many Sudanese lack the legal refugee status needed to obtain such permits. According to the protesters, Syrian and Iraqi refugees receive more and faster services from the UNHCR, a discrepancy they say constitutes racism. “Their interviews are processed within a few days. For us it’s sometimes one to two years,” said Yahya. Banners held up at the protests reveal similar opinions. On Nov. 24, one tent had “No discrimination between refugees” written on it.
The protesters clearly view the UNHCR as their best chance to get help, but many of their grievances stem from their position in Jordanian society. The protesters uniformly complain of racism directed at them in public. “I’ve seen a lot of racism. They call us pigs, dogs and not human,” Saleh Babaker told Al-Monitor at one of the protests. Saleh works illegally, mostly at cleaning jobs in Amman.
Last year, reports by Al Jazeera, Vice News and other organizations emerged about Sudanese refugees being attacked in Amman’s streets. The protesters say this violence is ongoing. “People tried to kidnap me for trafficking,” said Fatma Abdullah outside the UNHCR. She said she managed to escape by running to the main street. “My sisters have decided not to leave the house” over fears of violence, she added. The protesters further decry their inability to legally work or study in Jordan, results of their lack of refugee status and inability to afford both legal residency and private schooling. “I work at night so the government can’t catch me,” Yahya said. “All of us work illegally.” Because the process of getting refugee status takes so long and residency can cost up to 180 Jordanian dinars (over $250) per year, many Sudanese children cannot go to public schools, and private schools can cost over 1,000 dinars (around $1,400) a year.Amel Abdallah, a Sudanese volunteer teacher, said, “I teach them Arabic. They have no other education.”
“The UNHCR provides equal treatment to all refugees,” Helene Daubelcour, the organization’s senior external relations officer, told Al-Monitor in her Amman office. Daubelcour said that assistance is provided “based on vulnerability, not pressure,” and claimed that Sudanese refugees are in fact receiving assistance when necessary. “The average amount of cash assistance a Sudanese family receives is 214 dinars a month [around $300]. The average Syrian family receives 100-120 dinars [$140-$170],” she said when asked if the UNHCR views the Sudanese as less of a priority. With regard to resettlement, the UNHCR believes it is not discriminating against Sudanese refugees. Daubelcour estimates that 2.9% of the Sudanese refugees who applied have been resettled, compared to 2.3% for Syrians. The resettlement and cash assistance figures contradict the idea that the UNHCR is discriminating against the Sudanese community, she said. The UNHCR determines a refugee vulnerable enough for resettlement based on a “combination of factors, such as medical situations that require long-term treatment that is not available [in the host country], protection concerns and lack of integration prospects,” said Daubelcour, adding that whether they are granted asylum after this is up to the host country. With understandably stringent criteria for resettlement, it’s no surprise that few refugees meet them. At the same time, their inability to work and security concerns warrant asking if more Sudanese refugees should be resettled.
The UNHCR considers itself strained by a lack of resources. “If some money could be made mandatory, that would allow us to provide more dignity,” Daubelcour said.
Finally, the large number of nongovernmental organizations solely dedicated to Iraqi and Syrian refugees may explain the discrimination perceived by the Sudanese. “For Syrians and Iraqis, there is a wider network of charities,” said Daubelcour. Indeed, numerous NGOs in Amman seem focused on the Syrian refugee crisis. For example, the Jordan page on the Mercy Corps website mentions their work with Syrian refugees, but not others. The same is true for Save the Children. At the same time, some organizations such as Caritas Jordan have programs for Sudanese and other urban refugees. The vastly higher number of Syrian refugees attracts them more attention but also may contribute to feelings of neglect in the Sudanese community. Sudanese refugees have mostly come to Amman within the past two years from the country’s conflict-plagued Darfur region. According to the UNHCR’s October 2015 Jordan fact sheet, there are nearly 3,500 Sudanese refugees in Jordan, compared to over 600,000 Syrians and over 50,000 Iraqis. The Sudanese mostly live in working class neighborhoods downtown and in east Amman. They have no camps such as Zaatari and others for Syrian refugees, meaning they are predominantly urban refugees. Sudanese refugees feel unable to better their situation, while the UNHCR believes it is doing what it can. Any major resettlement increase in the near future is unlikely, protesters are growing impatient, police are monitoring the protests and Amman’s winter days are getting shorter. The situation in Amman’s unofficial, makeshift camp of Sudanese refugees outside UNHCR headquarters seems bound to continue.

Coptic Pope's Jerusalem visit sparks backlash in Egypt
George Mikhail/Al-Monitor/December 03/15
The visit by the head of the Egyptian Coptic Orthodox Church, Pope Tawadros II of Alexandria, to Jerusalem on Nov. 26 to preside over the funeral prayer of the late bishop of Jerusalem, Anba Abraham, sparked controversy among Coptic and political circles, with some arguing that the visit runs contrary to an existing ban issued by the church itself.Several political parties issued statements denouncing Tawadros’ trip. In a statement released Nov. 26, the left-wing Nasserist Dignity Party described the visit as “a deep crack in the wall of resistance to normalization” with Israel. Meanwhile, Younes Makhioun, head of the Salafist Nour Party, posted a statement to his official Facebook page Nov. 28 in which he described the visit as an encroachment on patriotism for all Egyptians — be they Muslim or Coptic — since the church and the Copts are part of the Egyptian national fabric.
The visit was also denounced by a number of public figures. Former presidential candidate and head of the Strong Egypt Party Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh described the visit as “normalization with Israel” in a tweet Nov. 27. Former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi confirmed that the pope's visit to Jerusalem weakens the national value of the church, while the head of the Egyptian Journalists Syndicate, Yahya Qalash, announced the syndicate's objection to the visit. The Orthodox church justified Tawadros’ decision in a Nov. 28 article written by church spokesman Father Boulos Halim and published in the daily Al-Masry Al-Youm. In the article, titled “The patriotism of the Egyptian church, the nation’s identity and the media’s fantasy,” Halim stressed that the Egyptian Coptic church has “proven its patriotism throughout history.” He also asserted that the church’s stance on visits to Jerusalem remains unchanged: Copts will only travel to Jerusalem with all other Egyptians, and the pope’s visit was restricted to the funeral prayer.
The ban preventing Copts from traveling to Jerusalem can be traced back to the 1960s. Following Egypt’s defeat in the 1967 war, Pope Cyril VI expressed his opposition to visiting Israel. In 1978, following the signing of the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel, Coptic Pope Shenouda III issued a papal decree forbidding church members from visiting Jerusalem. Violence against Copts had increased in the 1970s, as then-President Anwar Sadat was embracing Islamist groups as a counterweight to leftist and Nasserist opposition. Amid widespread Arab opposition to the new peace agreement with Israel, the church likely feared that Copts visiting Israel would spark animosity toward them.Speaking from Jerusalem on Nov. 26, Tawadros said he does not believe his presence in the city constitutes a pilgrimage since it was not planned in advance. He explained that the visit was rather a humanitarian duty and a sign of loyalty to a person who served the nation and the church, and condolences must be paid to his subjects. The Orthodox church announced in a statement Nov. 28 that Tawadros had declined an invitation by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to visit Ramallah during his trip. According to the statement, the pope would not visit Palestinian territories or Jerusalem as a visitor, “unless accompanied by the grand imam of Al-Azhar.”Halim reiterated to Al-Monitor that the Coptic church’s position on visits would remain, adding, “The only reason for the pope’s visit was to bid farewell to Bishop Anba Abraham, the head of the Coptic church in the Holy Land, who was an important figure in the holy synod of the Coptic church, and he was the second-most influential figure after the pope.”
Halim added, “The body of late Anba was supposed to be transported to Egypt where the pope was supposed to hold the funeral ceremony, but Anba’s will was to be buried in Jerusalem. Had it not been for this, the pope would not have had to travel there.”He explained that the funeral prayer is an integral part of pastoral action and in accordance with the church’s traditions, the pope is obliged to perform this service, as otherwise he would not be fulfilling his duties toward his people. “The church does not take into account any political equations and therefore all of its activities are out of its pastoral and national duties. The visit to Jerusalem has no political connotations,” Halim said.
Immediately following Tawadros’ return from Jerusalem to Cairo, the church responded to criticism via a statement on Nov. 29, stating that Tawadros did not enter Jerusalem with an Israeli visa since there was coordination with the Palestinian Authority to enter without one. The statement added, “Pope Tawadros II did not meet with any officials from either the Israeli or the Palestinian side during his stay in Jerusalem. There shall be no room for speculation or propaganda on the concept of normalization [with Israel].” Mina Thabet, the manager of the minorities program at the Egyptian Coordination of Rights and Freedoms, told Al-Monitor, “Pope Tawadros II did not go to Jerusalem on vacation, to visit tourism attractions or for a religious pilgrimage. He went to perform religious rituals under very special and specific circumstances: the death of the bishop of Jerusalem who was of great value to the Coptic Orthodox Church.”
Thabet noted that he personally has no problem with peace with Israel on the condition that it is based on justice and equality of rights. He also expressed his belief that the visit will not affect the relationship between Muslims and Christians.
However, not everyone agreed. Speaking by phone on al-Ghad al-Arabi channel Nov. 28, journalist Abdullah al-Sinawi said, “This visit will be exploited by the radical currents as a card against the Egyptian church to create a state of sectarian divide that may reach the point of accusing Coptic currents of committing treason and normalizing relations with Israel.”

Britain rightly follows France into Syria conflict
Manuel Almeida/Al Arabiya/December 03/15
The UK House of Commons on Wednesday authorized the extension of air strikes on ISIS targets into Syria, with the MP vote count standing at 397 to 223. Six Typhoon and two Tornado jets of the Royal Air Force have already joined the U.S.-led coalition conducting military operations in Syria against the radical group. On Thursday morning, there were reports of British airstrikes in Eastern Syrian against oil installations controlled by ISIS. This was the second time in the last two years that the House of Commons has considered British air strikes in Syria. In the first vote in the summer of 2013, it was the regime of Bashar al-Assad and not ISIS that was the potential target of the military intervention. Back then, when clear proof emerged that the Assad regime had been using chemical weapons multiple times against civilians, the Obama administration revealed it was considering taking military action to punish Assad for crossing the red line set by the U.S. president. Willing to back the U.S.-led airstrikes, the British government held a parliamentary motion on August 29 that David Cameron lost by 285 to 272.
The parallel between the current intervention against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and the Iraq intervention in 2003 is a poor and deceiving one.
The British Prime Minister may have felt he wasted some political capital on the matter when the Obama administration eventually abandoned the plan to conduct air strikes, following the Assad regime’s acceptance of a Russian proposition to place the Syrian regime’s chemical weapons under international control and to be dismantled. But today, due to the growing threat of ISIS on a global scale and the worsening refugee crisis, the war in Syria and its effects feel far closer to Europe than they did two years ago. In particular, the brutal terrorist attacks in Paris last month resonated powerfully in Britain, where the security services have reportedly already foiled several attacks by ISIS.Providing a key impulse for the British government’s decision was the French and U.S. governments’ call for British support for the ongoing military campaign against ISIS in Syria. Equally important is U.N. resolution 2249, passed last month, which classified ISIS as an “unprecedented threat” and called upon member states to take all the necessary measures to confront the radical group.
A divisive legacy
During the 10 hours’ Commons debate on Wednesday, pacifist and isolationist views were raised by some MPs in both the ruling Conservative Party and opposition, despite the attempts to mask those positions of principle with the difficult questions military intervention inevitably generates. Among the key concerns expressed by MPs was how to avoid civilian casualties given the presence of ISIS forces among the civilian population in Raqqa and other places in Syria, and whether the airstrikes would be followed by the deployment of British troops on the ground. Backing those and other concerns was the report of the Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee, prepared earlier this month, which questioned the government’s ISIS-first strategy. “We consider that the focus on the extension of airstrikes against ISIL in Syria is a distraction from the much bigger and more important task of finding a resolution to the conflict in Syria and thereby removing one of the main facilitators of ISIL’s rise”, was one of the conclusions of the report. But it was the legacy of British involvement in recent interventions in the region that overshadowed the debate, as one of the MPs noted. First among those remains the significant British participation in the disastrous U.S.-led intervention in Iraq which overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003. The UK’s leading role during NATO’s intervention in Libya in 2011 against the forces of Muammar Qaddafi, which precipitated the current scenario of various factions and militias vying for power and resources, was also recalled.The ruinous invasion of Iraq, instrumental in the rise of ISIS, provides some valuable lessons of key mistakes not be repeated in Syria. Pushing for a political transition in Syria while keeping state institutions intact, instead of opting for another de-Baathification process that ruined the already small chances of a managed transition in Iraq, is an obvious example.
What is the strategy?
Ultimately, the parallel between the current intervention against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and the Iraq intervention in 2003 is a poor and deceiving one. In contrast to the invasion of Iraq, the legal case for the intervention is clear and the fight this time is against a global threat. Plus, the humanitarian grounds for the intervention are strong and next door in Iraq the involvement of British forces is helping Iraqi forces to produce tangible if slow results in the fight against ISIS. The truly difficult questions arise when it comes to the strategy of which the air strikes should be a small part. During the Commons debate, opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn raised numerous objections to the intervention, many of which were predictable and added little of substance to the debate. But Corbyn and other MPs were right when asking who is going to take up the fight against ISIS on the ground in Syria. Doubts continue to loom over what Cameron has described as 70,000 Free Syrian Army moderate troops able to fight ISIS deep inside its own territory. Also the Kurds, another ISIS adversary on the ground in Syria, have given ISIS a hard time in the north but will not go deep into ISIS-held territory to eradicate the group.
Increasingly, the need for the deployment of some kind of ground forces or special forces in eastern Syria is becoming apparent. On the political front, the Russian intervention in support of the Syrian regime has at least provided a window of opportunity for all parties involved to negotiate a settlement, which culminated in a concrete calendar for the transition agreed in Vienna earlier this month. Yet depending on the unpredictability of Vladimir Putin could well become the Achilles heel of the U.S.-led coalition’s strategy. At the moment, however, there is no better plan.

Has there been a soft coup in Pakistan?
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December 03/15
Pakistan has been ruled by its military for over half its life as an independent nation. In many ways the military is the state, as it is widely recognized as the only functioning institution in the country. There have been experiments with democracy in the past, but they have not generally gone well.
In 2013, Pakistan held elections that marked its first transition from one freely elected government to another. Finally, it seemed as if democracy was taking root. Yet a fundamental problem remained: the army was still the only institution in the country that was vaguely functional. The army denies that a ‘soft coup’ has taken place, but for most practical intents and purposes, the post of prime minister is today largely ceremonial.Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has always been an incompetent politician propelled to office through nepotism and disinformation against the opposition. He has a long history of civic and economic mismanagement of the country, presiding over alleged large-scale government corruption and the squandering of the country’s limited resources.
Marked improvement
Yet the last couple of years have seen a marked improvement in Pakistan’s domestic situation. In 2013, the Pakistani Taliban and other radical Islamist groups were active, and there would be tens of civilian deaths daily, while the government was too busy fighting in the streets with official opposition parties.
Civil administration was nearly in complete collapse, the economy was suffering, and it would not have been far-fetched to predict a descent into chaos similar to neighboring Afghanistan. Sharif’s civil administration and management skills may not have improved much, but the security situation today has improved beyond recognition. So far this year, the Pakistani Taliban have only managed to carry out one major suicide bombing. Order has been restored to the large inner cities. Even the remote rural areas have been largely pacified.
Tougher approach
What has happened is that the new army chief General Raheel Sharif (no relation to the prime minister) has taken a much more aggressive role in returning the county to order than his predecessors, especially in the wake of the Taliban attack on a school in Peshawar last December that killed 145 people, 132 of them children. The school catered largely to children from army families. The army and intelligence services in Pakistan have a long and murky relationship with terrorism and various Islamist groups. It has long pitted various militant groups against each other, and against Pakistan’s strategic rivals India, Afghanistan and Iran. It is no coincidence that Osama bin Laden managed to live in hiding in Pakistan for 10 years after the 9/11 attacks. Many senior U.S. officials believe he was protected by elements of the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment. The terror attack against the school, and the domestic outcry that followed, finally focused minds in the Pakistani security establishment, driving it to clamp down hard on all non-state violence. Capital punishment has been reintroduced, official media outlets are now tightly regulated to prevent the dissemination of messages that might “aid the enemy,” and the army has set up a parallel legal system where it processes terrorists and other threats to the state.
Army actions
The civilian institutions that were supposed to perform these functions have been swept aside, and within just a year the results have been dramatic. Almost everyone in Pakistan, except Islamist militants, welcomes this power-grab by the army, and thinks it is a reasonable trade-off for the new security they enjoy. For many, it is hard to argue with the new state of affairs. What is even more interesting is that despite having completely overshadowed the democratically elected civilian government - both in terms of running the country and of domestic popularity - army leaders have not so far felt compelled to take over the civilian administration, as they have often done in the past. They seem happy to carry on governing the country, and letting politicians be democratically accountable without much power. The army denies that a ‘soft coup’ has taken place, but for most practical intents and purposes, the post of prime minister is today largely ceremonial.

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