LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 03/15

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.december03.15.htm 

Bible Quotations For Today

we know that this is truly the Saviour of the world.’
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 04/39-42: "Many Samaritans from that city believed in Jesus because of the woman’s testimony, ‘He told me everything I have ever done.’ So when the Samaritans came to him, they asked him to stay with them; and he stayed there for two days. And many more believed because of his word. They said to the woman, ‘It is no longer because of what you said that we believe, for we have heard for ourselves, and we know that this is truly the Saviour of the world.’

So then you are no longer strangers and aliens, but you are citizens with the saints and also members of the household of God,
Letter to the Ephesians o2/17-22: "Jesus came and proclaimed peace to you who were far off and peace to those who were near; for through him both of us have access in one Spirit to the Father. So then you are no longer strangers and aliens, but you are citizens with the saints and also members of the household of God, built upon the foundation of the apostles and prophets, with Christ Jesus himself as the cornerstone. In him the whole structure is joined together and grows into a holy temple in the Lord; in whom you also are built together spiritually into a dwelling-place for God.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 02-03/15
Sunnis joining the Lebanese Forces/Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/December 02/15
Beirut bombing brings Lebanon's political parties together/Sami Nader/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
Will Syria’s core ally in Lebanon be the next president/Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/December 02/15
The Middle East inches away from the inferno/By David Ignatius Opinion writer December 02/15
The Logic of Islamic Intolerance/Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/December 02/15
The New French "Résistance"/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/December 02/15
U.S. Prisoner Release Policy: Terrorists Yes, Americans and Human Rights Heroes/George Phillips/Gatestone Institute/December 02/15
Gossip grows as Rouhani skips meetings/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
US threatens to bypass Baghdad and arm Sunnis against IS/Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
Sisi supporters secure second round elections victory/Ayah Aman/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
What the killing of a Kurdish human rights lawyer means for Turkey/Hande Yalnizoglu/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
UAE National Day: United we stand, united we succeed/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
Boredom at the ballot box in Egypt/Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
Russian-Israeli relations reach new heights/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
Turkey needs to talk tough to calm Russia/Mahir Zeynalov/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
As Turkey confronts Russia, World War III looms ever closer/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December 02/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 02-03/15
Presidential Elections Postponed to December 16
Paris Confirms Hariri to Meet Hollande as Riyadh, Tehran Press for President Election
Qahwaji: Army Won't Bargain over Any Terrorist Involved in Killing Servicemen
Mashnouq Says Presidential Crisis Won't End 'within Days or Weeks'
Abou Faour Says Franjieh's Nomination 'Best Available Opportunity'
EU Trust Fund Launches Aid Package for Syrian Refugees in Lebanon and Neighboring Countries
Army Shells Nusra Positions in Arsal, Injures Several
Qatar Denies Paying Ransom in Servicemen Swap Deal
Report: Hizbullah Tells Mustaqbal that Aoun Will Remain its Sole Presidential Nominee
Report: Geagea Heads to Saudi Soon to Address Presidential Deadlock
Al-Rahi Vows to Seek Consensus among Parties after Latest Presidential 'Developments'
Jumblat Says Franjieh Can be 'Compromise President' as Marada Chief Says Won't Disagree with Aoun
Franjieh Pays Condolence Visit to Aoun, Says to 'Talk Politics Later'
Berri Deems as 'Scandal' Images of Nusra in Arsal as he Congratulates Servicemen on Release
Sunnis joining the Lebanese Forces
Beirut bombing brings Lebanon's political parties together
Will Syria’s core ally in Lebanon be the next president?
The Middle East inches away from the inferno

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 02-03/15
Reports of 20 Victims in California Mass Shooting
Kabul Says Taliban Leader Seriously Injured in Internal Firefight
U.S. rejects Russia’s claim against Turkey
Sources: Syria conference will move to New York on Dec. 18
Algeria troops kill three Islamists
Iraq PM fires trade minister wanted for graft
U.S. ready to take next step in Iran deal
Egyptian premier in Riyadh to attend first Saudi-Egyptian council meeting
Egypt court orders retrial for Mubarak-era PM
Three killed in clashes under curfew in Turkey’s southeast
U.S. reiterates Iraqi PM’s support for special forces
Yemen ‘extremely fragile’ for aid workers, Red Cross says after kidnap
Leaders urge restraint after assassination in Iraq’s Kirkuk
Israeli army to allow HIV positive recruits
U.N. experts: ISIS in Libya hampered by lack of fighters
Turkey won’t retaliate against Russia’s sanctions
Russia warns against NATO expansion
Israel deploys heavy security ahead of planned home demolition
U.N. experts: Up to 3,000 ISIS fighters in Libya
Saudi King Salman holds talks with KRG's Barzani
Libya’s unrecognized govt reshuffles cabinet
U.S. and Russia aim to choke off ISIS finances

Links From Jihad Watch Site for December 02-03/15
Mass shooting in California, at least 20 victims, suspect Farooq Saeed sought
Congressman: 72 DHS employees on terrorist watchlist
300 Muslims in every state in U.S. using social media to recruit for Islamic State
California convert to Islam pleads guilty: “I despise america and want its downfall”
NYC: Muslim punches man, screams “F— you Jews, I’ll kill you all! I’m a Muslim”
New Glazov Gang: Robert Spencer on plan to flood US with Muslim refugees
Boston Marathon jihad murderer wants a new trial
SecDef on Pakistan: “We do press them on the need to fight terrorists”
“Clock Boy” claims fears of anti-Islam protests keep him from returning to U.S.
Those Who Have Been Forgotten

Presidential Elections Postponed to December 16
Naharnet/December 02/15/The parliamentary session to elect a new president was postponed on Wednesday for the 32nd time following a lack of quorum at the session. Speaker Nabih Berri scheduled December 16 as the next date for the polls.
Following the meeting, Lebanese Forces MP Georges Adwan declared: “We do not judge candidates, but their presidential platforms.”“Do you think a foreign country knows Lebanon's interests better than the Lebanese people themselves?” he asked in response to claims of a political settlement that would see the election of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. “We have to know a political settlement's stance on the war in Syria, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the constitution and other issues,” he stated. LF leader Samir Geagea is the March 14 camp's presidential candidate, while media reports have spoken that Franjieh may be endorsed by the rival March 8 camp with the support of Mustaqbal Movement head MP Saad Hariri. Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun is the March 8 alliance's current candidate. Adwan added: “The March 14 alliance is a political project, not just various parties and blocs.”“The alliance belongs to the people. The day this project collapses will be the day the state collapses,” he warned. “We are therefore committed to this coalition,” stressed the lawmaker to reporters. Political parties have for over a year failed in electing a successor to President Michel Suleiman whose term ended in May 2014. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the elections. Franjieh emerged in recent weeks as a potential candidate in the wake of a meeting he held with Hariri.

Paris Confirms Hariri to Meet Hollande as Riyadh, Tehran Press for President Election
Naharnet/December 02/15/The French presidency confirmed Wednesday evening that French President Francois Hollande will meet al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri on Thursday in Paris. The Elysee Palace meeting will take place at 10:30 am, the presidency said in a statement. An Nahar newspaper had reported that Hariri will discuss with Hollande the latest developments in the presidential deadlock in Lebanon. Hariri is also set to meet with various March 14 alliance officials, such as Telecommunications Minister Butros Harb. Meanwhile, the same sources spoke of a “Saudi-Iranian push to elect a president” despite the divides between the two regional rivals. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. There has been a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh and Hariri. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency.

Qahwaji: Army Won't Bargain over Any Terrorist Involved in Killing Servicemen
Naharnet/December 02/15/Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji reassured Wednesday that the military institution will not bargain with extremist groups or any other party over “any terrorist involved in the killing of any serviceman.”
His remarks come a day after 16 servicemen – 13 policemen and 3 soldiers – were freed in a swap deal with al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front that also saw the release of more than a dozen Islamist prisoners from Lebanese and Syrian jails.As he thanked “all parties and figures who contributed to this process,” Qahwaji vowed to “utilize all means possible to liberate the rest of the abducted servicemen.”He was referring to nine other servicemen who were also kidnapped in August 2014 from the border town of Arsal, and are being held by the Islamic State group. “The army has not and will not bargain over any terrorist involved in the killing of any serviceman,” Qahwaji pledged. He also reassured that the swap deal “will not at all affect the army's firm decision to continue to confront the terrorist groups on the eastern border, until the full liberation of this region and its return to Lebanese sovereignty.”The agreement with al-Nusra also involved the delivery of several aid trucks and a so-called “safe corridor” for the wounded. On Tuesday, General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim noted that the corridor would go through the army's checkpoints around Arsal. The prisoner exchange comes 16 months after al-Nusra and the IS briefly overran the town of Arsal on Lebanon's eastern border with Syria after deadly clashes with Lebanese troops. The groups withdrew under a truce deal, but took 30 hostages with them. Four of the hostages were subsequently executed by the two groups, including Mohammed Hamieh, whose body was turned over to Lebanese authorities on Tuesday morning in the first stage of the swap deal.

Mashnouq Says Presidential Crisis Won't End 'within Days or Weeks'
Naharnet/December 02/15/Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq announced Wednesday that the country's presidential crisis will not end within “days or weeks” despite the presence of “serious progress” in recent weeks.“There is serious progress in the discussions over the possibility of agreeing on the election of a new president but things still need further consultations,” Mashnouq said in a TV interview. “We must not forget that key representative forces that hold sway over the issue of the presidential elections have not voiced their stances yet, such as the Lebanese Forces, the Free Patriotic Movement and maybe other parties,” he noted. He underlined that “a crisis that has been running for a year and a half” will not end “within days or weeks.”“Certain issues are still unclear and we must give things more time,” the Mustaqbal movement minister added.“All parties are in a hurry but things will not happen within several days or two weeks – they might take weeks and this is normal,” Mashnouq went on to say. Mashnouq's remarks come amid a flurry of political talks in the country between parties from both the March 14 and March 8 camps. The new momentum kicked off after a Paris meeting between al-Mustaqbal movement chief ex-PM Saad Hariri and Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh, which has sparked intense speculation that they agreed to Franjieh's nomination for the presidency. Hariri has also held talks in Paris with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat and Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel.

Abou Faour Says Franjieh's Nomination 'Best Available Opportunity'
Naharnet/December 02/15/Health Minister Wael Abou Faour on Wednesday described the proposed presidential settlement that involves the nomination of MP Suleiman Franjieh as the "best available opportunity" to end the political impasse in the country. “Franjieh's Maronite representation does not need recognition from anyone and he is one of the four strong candidates, which should create a positive atmosphere in the Christian arena,” Abou Faour, who is close to Druze leader MP Walid Jumblat, said. He voiced his remarks after talks with Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain al-Tineh. “Franjieh's nomination is the best available opportunity today, so why don't we seize it?” the minister suggested. He also noted that the proposed settlement does not involve the 1960 law for parliamentary polls but rather a “national unity government.”His remarks come in the wake of a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement chief ex-PM Saad Hariri that has sparked intense speculation that they agreed to Franjieh's nomination for the presidency. Hariri has also held talks in Paris with Jumblat and Kataeb Party leader MP Sami Gemayel.

EU Trust Fund Launches Aid Package for Syrian Refugees in Lebanon and Neighboring Countries
Naharnet/December 02/15/The European Union Trust Fund launched a € 350 million aid package in response to the Syrian refugee crisis to aid 1.5 million displaced in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq, it said in a statement on Wednesday. “The aid package is the single biggest EU measure in response to the Syrian refugee crisis to date. It will provide urgently needed aid to 1.5 million refugees and overstretched host communities in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq,” the statement said. It added that the “EU Regional Trust Fund has adopted a package of programs totaling €350 million. The programs will in the coming months help up to 1.5 million Syrian refugees and overstretched host communities in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq through the provision of basic education child protection, better access to healthcare, improved water and waste-water infrastructure, as well as support to resilience, economic opportunities and social inclusion.” Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, stated: “The decision is concrete evidence of EU solidarity with Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, those countries hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees who flee violence and persecutions.”“The war in Syria is the biggest humanitarian crisis we have been facing for decades. We have a duty to provide support to refugees and the communities that are hosting them,” she added. “The Trust Fund will enable more than 1.5 million Syrians to receive access to education, water, food and healthcare. In addition, it will help us be ready to ensure that if a ceasefire is in place, we can rapidly deliver on the ground inside Syria.”Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, Johannes Hahn, commented: “Europe and the countries in Syria's neighborhood are facing the biggest refugee crisis since the end of World War II, affecting all of us. Our response must be a joint one if we want to succeed.“I am convinced that this is the most effective way to address the root causes of the current migration crisis, and to turn despair into hope and future for the refugees,” he concluded.

Army Shells Nusra Positions in Arsal, Injures Several
Naharnet/December 02/15/The army shelled on Wednesday the positions of gunmen in the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal, the state-run National News Agency said.It added that the troops injured several gunmen in heavy shelling on the militant positions and inflicted damage on six of their vehicles. LBCI said that the army shelled with heavy artillery the positions of al-Qaida affiliated al-Nusra Front group in the outskirts of Arsal injuring several of the militants and damaging six of their vehicles. Wednesday's shelling comes one day after the a swap deal that saw the release of 16 soldiers kidnapped for 15 months by al-Nusra. The release took place in Wadi Hmeid in Arsal where the militants gathered on Lebanese soil to hand the abductees to Lebanese authorities. The deal was only successful after a list of demands was approved and that included the release of 13 inmates from Lebanese prisons and an undisclosed number of inmates from Syrian jails. The soldiers were kidnapped when the militants overran Arsal in August 2014 and ended when the gunmen withdrew.

Qatar Denies Paying Ransom in Servicemen Swap Deal
Naharnet/December 02/15/Qatari ambassador Ali bin Hamad al-Marri slammed on Wednesday media reports claiming that his country has paid large amounts of money in the swap deal that saw the release of Lebanese soldiers a day earlier, al-Joumhouria daily reported. “Qatar did not pay a single dollar but only led the role of mediator which took plenty of time,” al-Marri told the paper. On the servicemen that are still captive by the Islamic State, al-Marri confirmed that there are no ongoing negotiations between his country and the Islamic State to release the rest of the soldiers, but expressed Qatar's readiness to “carry out any humanitarian action for the sake of Lebanon.” On Tuesday, 16 servicemen -13 policemen and three soldiers- that were captured in 2014 by al-Qaida affiliated al-Nusra Front were released in a swap deal that involved the release of more than a dozen Islamist prisoners from Lebanese and Syrian prisons, including the former wife of Islamic State chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Saja al-Dulaimi. It also gave al-Nusra several trucks of humanitarian aid. The list of demands that saw the release of the servicemen included paying $48 million that media reports said were paid by Qatar.Nine servicemen are still held captive by the Islamic State group. The prisoner exchange comes 16 months after al-Nusra and the IS briefly overran the town of Arsal on Lebanon's eastern border with Syria after clashes with Lebanese troops. The groups withdrew under a truce deal, but around 30 hostages with them. Four of the hostages were subsequently executed by the two groups, including Mohammed Hamieh, whose body was turned over to Lebanese authorities on Tuesday morning in the first stage of the deal.

Report: Hizbullah Tells Mustaqbal that Aoun Will Remain its Sole Presidential Nominee
Naharnet/December 02/15/Hizbullah has voiced its commitment to Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun as the presidential candidate of the March 8 coalition, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. This stance was relayed to the Mustaqbal Movement during the latest round of dialogue held between it and the party on Monday. Hizbullah informed the movement that Aoun will remain “its sole presidential candidate.”This stance will remain the same regardless of the setting, whether it is at the dialogue table or at a social or political meeting, said the daily. “Anyone who believes that they can approach Aoun with a different proposal are mistaken,” said the party according to al-Joumhouria. The MP will remain its presidential candidate as long as his nomination still stands, it added. Media reports on Tuesday said that the Mustaqbal Movement had informed Hizbullah during their dialogue meeting of its adoption of the nomination of Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. There has been a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency. Aoun announced on Monday that it is up to the March 8 coalition to decide whether or not to nominate Franjieh for the presidency.

Report: Geagea Heads to Saudi Soon to Address Presidential Deadlock
Naharnet/December 02/15/Head of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea is expected to travel to Saudi Arabia in order to discuss the latest developments regarding the presidential elections, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. LF sources told the daily: “Contacts are ongoing between Geagea and the Saudi leadership to explain the Christian position on the proposed presidential settlement.” Media reports in recent weeks have spoken of the possibility of the nomination of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. “Saudi Arabia's stance is now clear and it has informed Geagea that it will not take or bless any step that does not have the LF and his approval,” continued the sources. “The kingdom rejects having Christians outside the game of electing a president,” they explained. “It will not go ahead with a president that does not have Geagea's approval and who does not agree with the stances of MP Michel Aoun,” they stressed. “Geagea therefore communicates with Riyadh in the name of all Christians and not just the Lebanese Forces,” remarked the sources to al-Joumhouria.Geagea is a presidential candidate himself. There has been a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency. Aoun, a presidential candidate himself, announced on Monday that it is up to the March 8 coalition to decide whether or not to nominate Franjieh for the presidency. Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asiri said on Tuesday that the kingdom “hopes that Lebanese powers will be able to elect a president as soon as possible to put an end to the paralysis at state institutions, which has started to have negative effects on the country.” He added that he “supports any candidate who enjoys the backing of the Lebanese people, especially the Christians.”Asiri stressed that Riyadh does not meddle in Lebanese affairs, saying that the “Lebanese people alone should take the decisions that suit them.”

Al-Rahi Vows to Seek Consensus among Parties after Latest Presidential 'Developments'
Naharnet/December 02/15/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi pledged Tuesday to seek “consensus among all parties” in light of the latest “developments” regarding the issue of the presidential election. “We have learned of the new initiative and the step forward that was made, which have been met with positive, neutral and negative responses from the various political components,” al-Rahi said during a pastoral visit to Berlin. “Such a new step is necessary for resolving the obstacles that are hindering the election of a president and we have always called for such a step among the political and parliamentary parties,” he added. “As usual, we will seek consensus among everyone … in light of the new developments that the presidential issue has witnessed, and out of keenness on protecting the republic and its entity and institutions,” the patriarch vowed. His remarks come amid a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency.

Jumblat Says Franjieh Can be 'Compromise President' as Marada Chief Says Won't Disagree with Aoun
Naharnet/December 02/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat announced Wednesday that Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh is qualified to be a “compromise president” as the latter stressed that his possible nomination will not affect the unity of the March 8 camp. “Walid Jumblat was the first figure who nominated me for the presidency in Lebanon and we will be on the same course in this period,” said Franjieh as he arrived for talks with Jumblat in Clemenceau. “My nomination has not become official until the moment and I believe that ex-PM (Saad) Hariri is 100% honest in his support for me and that he was serious in everything he said,” Franjieh added. He was referring to a Paris meeting with Hariri last month that has sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to Franjieh's nomination for the presidency. Hariri has also met in the French capital with Jumblat and Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel. As for his ties with Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, Franjieh emphasized that he will not disagree with his ally and that “March 8 will only go unified to the presidential elections.”“We do not want to eliminate or provoke anyone,” he added. “General Aoun is a friend and we have come a long way together and we will stay together. I believe that national accord is more important than us all and we will only be together with General Aoun,” Franjieh said. As for the stance of the Christian parties over his possible nomination, Franjieh said: “If Christians have a Christian motive to reject my nomination, then I will accept that, but if the motives are personal, my stance will be something else.” Asked about the electoral law for parliamentary polls, the Marada chief said he cannot “achieve a settlement” over something he has no control over. “We will meet halfway and put 'Lebanon first' as our objective, seeing as the living conditions (of Lebanese citizens) are the important issue nowadays,” he added. For his part, Jumblat said that he will help in his “own way” to overcome any obstacles blocking Franjieh's nomination. “Regardless of the settlement's fate, the relation will continue with Franjieh,” he added.

Franjieh Pays Condolence Visit to Aoun, Says to 'Talk Politics Later'
Naharnet/December 02/15/Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh on Wednesday paid a condolence visit to Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun over the death of his brother, Robert Aoun. “We came today to extend condolences and we'll talk politics with the General later,” said Franjieh after leaving the Resurrection Cathedral in Rabieh. Ambiguity started shrouding the ties between the two allies after Franjieh met in Paris with al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. According to media reports, a-Mustaqbal has informed Hizbullah of its adoption of the nomination of Franjieh for the presidency. On Monday, Aoun stressed that it is up to the March 8 coalition to decide whether or not to nominate Franjieh for the presidency. “My stance on Franjieh's nomination will either complicate or facilitate the situation and I will declare it before the (presidential) elections take place,” Aoun said. “Why should Suleiman Franjieh's nomination come from Saad Hariri?” he wondered.Meanwhile, Franjieh's Marada Movement announced Monday that he still supports Aoun's presidential bid – but not if it is aimed at “blocking” his own nomination.

Berri Deems as 'Scandal' Images of Nusra in Arsal as he Congratulates Servicemen on Release
Naharnet/December 02/15/Speaker Nabih Berri hailed on Wednesday the release of the servicemen who were held hostage by the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front, but lamented the “scandal” that accompanied their release in the northeastern border region of Arsal. He said: “The footage of the gunmen on the outskirts of Arsal is a scandal against Lebanon's sovereignty.” He made his remarks during his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his Ain el-Tineh residence. “We however congratulate the families of the released servicemen on their loved ones' freedom,” Berri added. Al-Nusra Front released on Tuesday all 16 of the hostages it had abducted from Arsal in the wake of clashes with the army in August 2014. They were released in a Qatari-sponsored deal that included a prisoner swap with inmates in Lebanese and Syrian jails.Footage of the exchange on Tuesday showed images of gunmen from the Nusra Front freely roaming the outskirts of Arsal. Commenting on the latest political developments, Berri stressed before his visitors the importance of dialogue “to bolster the consensual atmosphere.”“Dialogue will remain the correct path to solving our problems,” he added. The Islamic State had also kidnapped a number of servicemen after the August clashes. Nine are still being held by it.

Sunnis joining the Lebanese Forces
Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/December 02/15
Members of the Lebanese Sunni community are applying to join the Christian party headed by Samir Geagea.“The veiled Lebanese Forces [supporter]” is the expression the Lebanese Forces website proudly used to introduce Nourhane. Nourhane Khaznadar is a Lebanese student at the Institute of Education at Saint Joseph’s University in Tripoli. According to the article, Khaznada, an activist, took part in the annual student council elections that took place on Monday with enthusiasm and tried to motivate and convince students to vote for the political party she was campaigning for: Lebanese Forces. Khaznadar is known as “comrade Nourhane” according to Lebanese Forces members. “The Lebanese Forces has a clear and honest political position,” said Khaznadar. “The Lebanese Forces and the Future Movement were working together as March 14. I worked with them during the elections and I was impressed with their warm welcome, regardless of the fact that I am veiled. They did not even ask if I was Shiite or Sunni. They have a clear project and that is Lebanon. They are ready to collaborate with whoever has the same project.”
Khaznadar is not the only non-Christian Lebanese citizen who supports the party. According to Lebanese Forces political officer Maya Sukkar, although the party is known to be a Christian political party advocating for Christian rights in Lebanon with a Christian majority membership, it has members from all the sects in Lebanon. “Lebanese Forces always gathered members from all sects and it is not the first time citizens from non-Christian communities apply to join the party,” Sukkar told NOW. “However, lately we have been receiving more membership applications from Lebanese Sunni citizens.” For security reasons, Saad Hariri, head of the Future Movement, does not currently reside in Lebanon, and his absence has affected the party’s popularity. In addition, the rise of Salafism in Lebanon has put the moderate Sunni movement in an uncomfortable position.
A year ago, on 27 November, Hariri said during an interview that “[March 14] does not want a president who is on good terms with Bashar Assad.” Last week, Hariri made obvious his nomination of Sleiman Frangieh for the presidency, the leading ally of Bashar Assad’s regime in Lebanon. “Nominating Frangieh for the presidency was a turning point for Hariri and Future Movement’s political positions,” Sukkar told NOW. Sukkar also said that this pushed a number of Future Movement supporters to question their political affiliations, especially that Future Movement supporters are against the Assad regime for being behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Tripoli MP Mosbah al-Ahdab told NOW that the Future Movement has to offer guarantees on a national level. In addition, the nomination of Frangieh was seen as a Sunni demand since neither the Christian parties nor Hezbollah agreed to it. “We are living in a catastrophic situation,” Ahdab told NOW. “The Future Movement is being politically mysterious. The Sunni community is lost — some of them are joining ISIS and others are in prison. Future Movement MPs were elected to represent [people who voted for them] and establish their project to empower the Lebanese institutions. They can’t encourage the return of Bashar Assad to Lebanon using the same representation. This is the main reason behind the disorder between them and their popular base.”
Consequently, a number of Lebanese Sunnis who had been Future Movement supporters began looking for an alternative political party that represented their political views. In an article published on the Lebanese Forces official website, blogger Mirvat Sioufi collected Facebook statuses posted by Lebanese Sunnis expressing their wish to join the Lebanese Forces and expressing the view that they considered it a national political party. “I have been waiting for 4 years to be accepted at Lebanese Forces. However, even if I didn’t become a member, I am an LF [supporter] and I support the project of a nation,” said Omar, a Facebook user. Sioufi called Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to announce the party as a national one. “The Lebanese Forces has a constant political position,” Sioufi told NOW. “This encouraged more people to adhere to it, especially that the Lebanese people are used to political parties’ dishonesty. Although the Lebanese Forces is still considered a Christian political party, its main goal is the establishment of a strong Lebanon. The Muslims who currently want to join the Lebanese Forces know this reality. However, they believe in the party’s ideology and trust it. They want to join it in order to defend Lebanon,” said Sioufi.
The Lebanese Forces lately proved the constancy of its political positions. It is still a party that believes in the March 14 coalition and works to revive it; it refused to participate in the latest dialogue and recently objected the nomination of Sleiman Frangieh for the presidency. It is not surprising that Sunnis disappointed by the performance of the Future Movement and its leaders are trying to join a political party that is more stable and relatively more dedicated to March 14 principles. “[Lebanese Forces] is a party that welcomes everybody,” said Sukkar. “What brings the party’s members together are not their sects but their political principles, especially those of March 14. As agreed on in 2005, March 14 is a national project for Lebanon that aims at defending the Lebanese sovereignty and independence. It never made the difference between Christians and Muslims.”
Myra Abdallah tweets @myraabdalla

Beirut bombing brings Lebanon's political parties together
Sami Nader/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
As the world was learning of the deadly terrorist attack Nov. 12 in Beirut, it was stunned by another attack the next day in Paris. The Nov. 12 explosions in Lebanon claimed dozens of lives. The following day, the bloody Paris events made the headlines.Though the suburban Beirut explosions in Burj al-Barajneh lost the media spotlight to the Paris shootings — as well as to field developments in Syria and reactions to Turkey's downing of a Russian plane — the attacks in Lebanon were significant. As the state security systems that were put in place by Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam’s government in February 2014 are weakening, political divisions are deepening and constitutional institutions remain in a state of paralysis. Following the Burj al-Barajneh explosions, Hezbollah immediately called for appeasement, while security authorities were able to arrest the perpetrators in record time, dismantle their networks and thwart terrorist operations that were being planned. Could this successful cooperation be enough to ensure the stability of the small country and protect it from the wave of terrorism that has once again emerged?
This is not the first time the Syrian war has spilled over into Lebanon. This is not the first time Shiite residential neighborhoods in Beirut’s southern suburbs — Hezbollah’s stronghold — have fallen prey to terrorist operations. On July 9, 2013, a huge explosion shook the Bir al-Abed district. A second bombing took place in Ruwais less than 40 days later, on Aug. 15, 2013. Both areas are located in the southern suburbs of Beirut. As if to target Hezbollah and its supporting countries again, namely Iran, another wave of bombings swept across this region. The Iranian embassy in the Bir Hassan area in the Jnah district was targeted Nov. 19, 2013, by a suicide bombing, and al-Qaeda’s Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack. That attack was followed by two more bombings. The first targeted the Haret Hreik district on Jan. 2, 2014, while the second took place near the Shatila roundabout on June 23, 2014. Groups linked to the Syrian revolution claimed responsibility for these terrorist operations in response to Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian war and its support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
This all shows that the Burj al-Barajneh bombing was part of a series of terrorist operations. That series had been largely curtailed when Salam reached a settlement between the March 14 and March 8 political parties to put an end to a government vacuum that had lasted 10 months and nine days.
The most important thing about the settlement is that moderate Sunni figures filled security positions, namely the Ministries of Interior (Nouhad Machnouk) and Justice (Ashraf Rifi). Back then, in February 2014, Lebanese parties including Hezbollah felt that openness toward moderate Sunnis was the most appropriate option to ease the sectarian conflict being exploited by extremist organizations.
Meanwhile, a bilateral dialogue between Hezbollah and the Future Movement took place December 2014 under the auspices of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, as the two parties were concerned over the creeping extremist terrorism. Apart from this fear, however, the two parties found many issues to disagree on, and the issues were not limited to Hezbollah's weapons and its involvement in the Syrian war. Their deep disagreements brought dialogue to a halt, and government action was disrupted as the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran — the main regional sponsors of the Future Movement and Hezbollah, respectively — escalated in the Syrian and Yemeni arenas. However, with the most recent calamity to plague Burj el-Barajneh and strike pain in the hearts of the Lebanese people, the appeasement discourse resurfaced. It showed that Lebanon’s security forces enjoy a high degree of readiness and a great level of coordination. Interestingly, two days after this latest explosion, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah made a televised speech in which he praised the work of the security forces, and the information branch particularly, “for its intense efforts and professional work.” This branch had recently faced a wave of criticism and suspicion from Hezbollah, its allies and their supporting media outlets for its affiliation with the Future Movement. But two days after the blast, the information branch dismantled the network of the Burj el-Barajneh suicide bombers and carried out raids in Tripoli’s Qubbah ​​district. On Nov. 17, the branch also foiled terrorist plans that were underway. By Nov. 25, military judge Saqr Saqr charged 26 people with belonging to the Islamic State and being involved in the bombing.
With his speech, Nasrallah did not escalate tensions with the March 14 team or Saudi Arabia, as he had done in a previous speech. He even warned against division and said that the aim behind the bombing was to “sow strife in Lebanon.""The Burj el-Barajneh bombing perpetrators want to pave the way for sedition between the Lebanese and the Palestinians on the one hand and between the Lebanese and the Syrians on the other,” Nasrallah said. Remarkably, he also called for all parties “to take advantage of the positive climate, solidarity and togetherness prevailing in Lebanon." "This climate should be preserved and built upon,” he said, reiterating his call for “a comprehensive political settlement on various levels within the existing frameworks and based on the Taif agreement.” That agreement was completed in 1989 under the auspices of Saudi Arabia. The Future Movement might agree with this outlook, in part. Antoine Andraos, deputy head of the Future Movement, said in an interview with Al-Monitor that the goal behind this bombing was to “sow discord between the Lebanese and start a conflict between Sunnis and Shiites.”
“Who is behind these bombings? Who is seeking sedition?” Andraos asked.
The answer to those questions remains in the hands of the judiciary. But it is important to note that the Burj el-Barajneh attack failed to incite the Lebanese parties to exchange charges or launch accusations against Arab countries for supporting the Syrian opposition — namely, the extremist groups responsible for the previous attacks in Beirut’s southern suburb. On the contrary, the attack resulted in a call for a political settlement. However, the question arises as to whether this common feeling of danger by itself can lead to a settlement that restores constitutional life and ends the presidential vacuum. No such settlement is in sight. The disagreement is so deep that it leaves no room for any reconciliation. Meanwhile, the Lebanese parties continue to serve as an extension for regional forces battling in the Levant, and those observing the complexities of the Syrian scene know full well that no breakthrough is on the horizon.

Will Syria’s core ally in Lebanon be the next president?
Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/December 02/15
Sleiman Franjieh’s name has been suggested and discussed as a presidential candidate in Lebanon in the last week among various political leaders. Franjieh, the Maronite political leader from Zgharta, North Lebanon, is not only the head of the Marada Movement political party — he also comes from a political family that has played a large role in Lebanese history, more specifically Lebanese-Syrian history. A close ally of the Syrian regime, his family’s relationship with the Assads started in his grandfather’s time and has been preserved ever since.
Sleiman’s grandfather, Sleiman Kabalan Franjieh, was the fifth president of Lebanon, from 1970 to 1975. He was the author of the famous quote, “My country is always righteous.”
In her book My Country is Always Righteous Sonia Franjieh al-Rassi, Sleiman’s daughter, wrote, “With [Sleiman Kabalan] Franjieh, the affiliation of Lebanon to the Arabic camp became unconditional” to describe her father’s role in setting good relations between Lebanon and neighboring Arab countries, specifically Syria. According to a New York Times report, Sleiman Franjieh was accused in the machinegun slaying of nearly a dozen members of a competing clan. He then took refuge in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, and there he became friends with two Syrian Army officers, Hafez and Rifaat Assad.
The Lebanese Civil War began during his term as president, during which the Ehden massacre took place. In 1978, his son — Tony Franjieh, who was in charge of the Marada Brigade — was murdered in Ehden with his wife and daughter. A Kataeb Party squad was accused of the murder. Sleiman Franjieh Jr., being the only survivor in his family after the Ehden massacre, was brought to Syria by his grandfather and was taken under the wing of Bassel Assad, the eldest son of former president Hafez Assad and brother of Bashar. Franjieh has maintained a close relationship with Assad family ever since.
A consensual candidate?
In the last few days Sleiman Franjieh has emerged as the leading candidate for president in Lebanon. Meeting with a large number of Lebanese politicians, from March 8 and March 14 coalitions equally, his chances of becoming the new Lebanese president after almost a year and a half of presidential vacuum are getting more serious. However, being a pro-Assad Lebanese politician and a March 8 coalition member, he is not exactly the picture of a consensual president.
“If Franjieh wanted to remain in the same political position, it would be hard for him to become president,” said Future Movement MP Ahmad Fatfat. “But, if he manages to be a consensual candidate and works for a certain settlement, we won’t use a veto against him. We all know the history of his politics, but we know that we won’t achieve anything if we keep focusing on the past.” Fatfat also told NOW that, in his opinion, if Franjieh is a consensual candidate, even head of Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea will agree to his presidency. “In 2014, Geagea confirmed that he supports the candidature of a consensual president,” he said. “Therefore, if Franjieh can be one, Geagea will probably not stand in the way.”
Future Movement MPs whom NOW spoke to said that the characteristics of a consensual president are simple: someone who can protect the Lebanese Constitution and the Taif Agreement and be representative of the Lebanese people’s unity. However, the way in which Sleiman Franjieh could be a consensual candidate is not clear.
Moreover, it is not the first time that Sleiman Franjieh’s name has been suggested. Almost a year ago, NOW published a report about Franjieh being among names discussed as a possible Future-Hezbollah deal loomed. Likewise, in a NOW opinion poll, Franjieh was the preferred presidential candidate.
“[Even this time], the idea of Franjieh becoming a president has been under discussion for over four months now,” said analyst Ibrahim Bayram. “Two months ago, Franiieh met Hassan Nasrallah and seriously discussed his candidature, although Nasrallah confirmed Hezbollah’s support for Michel Aoun as a presidential candidate unless the latter nominated Franjieh instead.”
Future Movement MP Bassem al-Shab said that today the country is standing on the edge of chaos and that the regional situation had changed drastically. “The previously-major powers in the region, specifically Iran and Saudi Arabia, have become secondary powers compared to the international powers that are currently involved in the region,” he told NOW. “In addition, regarding Lebanese issues, the positions of the March 8 and March 14 coalitions have become unclear. Therefore, Franjieh might be the solution for Lebanon, especially that his name was also suggested by Bkerke.”
What can Lebanese Forces do?
“It is known that Sleiman Franjieh is a Bashar Assad regime ally and a big supporter of Hezbollah and March 8,” said Bayram. “The question to be asked is why [Saad] Hariri decided to suggest Franjieh’s name now.”
The Future Movement — and specifically the Hariri family — and Sleiman Franjieh have not had the best relationship over the past few years. This tense relationship goes back to the period prior to the assassination of former Prime Minister and Future Movement leader Rafic Hariri, which Hezbollah and the Syrian regime have been accused of.
However, the Future Movement seems to be supporting Franjieh’s candidature. Analysts NOW spoke to said that Future will get the prime minister’s position in return for accepting Franjieh. “It’s a foregone conclusion for Saad Hariri to become prime minister, especially that this deal brought him back to the political frame after he was out of it for a while,” said Bayram. “The Future Movement will accept a president who belongs to the March 8 coalition if the prime minister is a Future Movement member. In addition, there is more for them to gain. They might accept Franjieh as a president if, for example, the new electoral law is voted in their favor.” Furthermore, unlike Aoun, Franjieh is not a man who calls for reform. He might be a guarantee for the Future Movement because he will not try to change the current political composition.
In order to agree on the name of a president, the main component of the decision remains the Lebanese Christians. The Kataeb party probably won’t object on Franjieh in order to put an end to the presidential deadlock. Although Michel Aoun does not seem to be accepting the idea in the meantime, but the FPM might potentially compromise Aoun’s presidency if Hezbollah decided that Franjieh should become president, especially that the profile of a president according to Hezbollah is someone consensual who supports the resistance and has a strong Christian popular base, and Franjieh fits this requested profile. However, the Lebanese Forces are still the only objecting political party, especially that Head of the LF, Samir Geagea, considered Hariri’s initiative to nominate Franjieh for presidency was an “unjustified and incomprehensible strategic mistake.”
Lebanese Forces political officer Maya Sukkar told NOW that the party had decided, for the time being, to not comment on Franjieh’s potential election. “[Samir] Geagea is currently negotiating with different political Lebanese authorities — mainly Saad Hariri — in order to reach an agreement, she told NOW. “He will announce the Lebanese Forces’ final decision once it is made.” As the only party firmly objecting to Franjieh becoming president, it remains to be seen whether it can block his election should it choose to object.
“The situation today can be compared to the situation in 1988,” Bayram told NOW. “Back then, the equation was about choosing between Michael Daher and chaos. Today, I think the situation is about choosing between Sleiman Franjieh or a presidential vacuum for two additional years, and maybe more.”
Myra Abdallah tweets @myraabdallah

The Middle East inches away from the inferno
By David Ignatius Opinion writer December 02/15
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-middle-east-takes-small-steps-away-from-the-inferno/2015/12/01/f9fc9586-9872-11e5-8917-653b65c809eb_story.html
A modest diplomatic breakthrough seems near in Lebanon, as the allies of Saudi Arabia and Iran appear to have tentatively agreed on a new president after an 18-month deadlock. Under a political deal blessed by the United States, the vacant Lebanese presidency would be filled by Suleiman Franjieh, a Maronite Christian politician who has long been friendly with the Iranian-supported regime in Syria. Saad Hariri, a Sunni Muslim leader strongly backed by Saudi Arabia, would become prime minister. David Ignatius writes a twice-a-week foreign affairs column and contributes to the PostPartisan blog.
The deal would mark another small step forward in the diplomatic process that has brought Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table in Vienna to explore a cease-fire in the Syrian civil war. In a bracing reminder of Lebanon’s past political torments, a Franjieh-Hariri alliance would bring together sons of two men killed by assassins. The pact, if it holds, would be a characteristic Lebanese political compromise, leaving “no victor, no vanquished.”
Lebanon has been a battleground in the region-wide proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which claim to speak for Sunnis and Shiites, respectively. But over the past year, Beirut has hosted an intriguing effort at rapprochement, which I described in a column a year ago, bringing together Nader Hariri, the Sunni leader’s cousin, and a senior Hezbollah representative. Those contacts now seem to have borne some fruit. Another sign of diplomatic ferment in the region was an agreement Tuesday to exchange prisoners between Lebanon’s Shiite-dominated government and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Those talks were said to have been brokered by Qatar, which has quiet contacts with Jabhat al-Nusra as well as good relations with Lebanon.
Raymond Araygi, a Lebanese cabinet minister who heads Franjieh’s party, confirmed the tentative agreement in a telephone interview from Beirut on Tuesday. He said it had the support of all key nations involved in Lebanon, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States and France, as well as the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia that is the strongest political force in the country. Asked about Saudi-Iranian relations, Araygi answered cautiously: “At least we have a kind of implicit agreement to let the presidential election happen. So I think that’s a positive point.” Araygi said Franjieh and Hezbollah were both awaiting a formal announcement by Hariri of the political pact before making public statements.
A senior U.S. official confirmed the tentative agreement on Franjieh’s candidacy and said it had Washington’s support. The official described the move as “another gradual step in the direction of better regional cooperation” but cautioned against overstating its impact.
Lebanese sources said the accord was reached two weeks ago in Paris between Hariri and Franjieh. The U.S. official confirmed that an earlier meeting had taken place between Franjieh and then-U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon David Hale, in which Hale said Washington wouldn’t oppose Franjieh’s candidacy.
The U.S. official warned that the deal could be torpedoed by several factors. The most toxic could be resentment of Franjieh by other Maronite politicians who want the presidency, especially retired Gen. Michel Aoun, long backed by Hezbollah, and Samir Geagea, a former Christian militia leader. Even if these two object, the pact will likely win Christian support if it’s endorsed by the Maronite patriarch, Bechara Boutros al-Rahi.
“It’s pragmatism; it’s damage control,” argued Robert Fadel, a Christian member of the Lebanese parliament who is part of the coalition that works with Hariri. “The choice today is between Franjieh or a power vacuum, at a time when Lebanon is faced with multiple existential threats: the refugee crisis, the war next door in Syria and the potential collapse of the state.”Fadel said he hopes that Franjieh will back reform of Lebanon’s election laws and a new framework for proportional representation that might break the stranglehold of traditional power blocs. Araygi said Franjieh would seek a “consensual” position on election-law reform, but he didn’t make any promises. An Arab proverb notes the centrality that Lebanon has often played in Middle East affairs: “If she gets pregnant in Baghdad, she will give birth in Beirut.” Regional politics drove the stalemate that blocked election of a new president when Michel Suleiman’s term expired last year. Regional politics has now opened the door to choosing a successor. It has taken the Middle East a generation to descend to its present abyss. The way out passes through Riyadh and Tehran both. The Middle East rarely rewards optimism. But consider: talks about a Syria cease-fire; election of a Lebanese president. One step, then another, away from the inferno.

Reports of 20 Victims in California Mass Shooting
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 02/15/Police were hunting Wednesday for one or more gunmen who opened fire inside a building in San Bernardino in California, with reports of 20 victims. Heavily armed SWAT teams, firefighters and ambulances swarmed the scene, located about an hour east of Los Angeles, as police warned residents away. "San Bernardino Fire Department units responding to reports of 20 victim shooting incident in 1300 block of S. Waterman. SBPD is working to clear the scene," the city fire department said on Twitter. "Area remains VERY ACTIVE. AVOID!" tweeted the local sheriff department, which confirmed there were "multiple victims." Police said that one to three possible suspects were involved. CBS evening news reported that the shooting took place at Inland Regional Center, which assists people with developmental disabilities. It said on Twitter that a bomb squad had been dispatched to the scene to "immobilize what's believed to be explosive device". Dozens of people with their hands raised were seen coming out of an area building and walking to a parking lot, ringed by heavily armed police. Loma Linda University Medical Center was expecting an unknown number of patients from the shooting, spokeswoman Briana Pastorino said. She said the extent of the anticipated patients' injuries is not clear. The shooting took place near a golf course where an employee told AFP that staff had been told to stop all activities. The man, who did not want his name used, said the area houses office and industrial buildings. He said there were also government offices in the area. The shooting comes just days after a lone gunman killed three people during a standoff at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado.

Kabul Says Taliban Leader Seriously Injured in Internal Firefight
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 02/15/Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour was seriously injured in a firefight following a heated argument at a meeting of militant commanders, officials said Wednesday, exposing deepening divisions within the fractious militant movement. It was unclear if he survived the clash, which occurred just four months after Mansour was appointed Taliban supremo in a deeply acrimonious leadership succession. Five other Taliban members were killed in the gunfight triggered by a bitter verbal duel at the meeting near the Pakistani town of Quetta, said Sultan Faizi, the spokesman for the Afghan first vice president. "Mansour was seriously injured. He was rushed to hospital and we are not sure if he survived his wounds," Faizi told AFP, citing "credible information."Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid denied that any such firefight took place but an Afghan intelligence source confirmed Faizi's account, and insurgent sources also told AFP that Mansour had been injured. The development comes amid a renewed push in Afghanistan and Pakistan to jumpstart peace talks with the Taliban, which stalled after the militants belatedly confirmed longtime leader Mullah Omar's death.
A Taliban source close to Mansour's group told AFP that a number of insurgent members were injured and killed in the firefight. "Akhtar Mansour is among the injured but the extent of his injuries is not clear," he said, a claim that was corroborated by another insurgent source. There was conflicting information on the location of the confrontation, with some sources claiming that it took place near Kandahar, the main city of southern Afghanistan and the birthplace of the Taliban. But they all agreed the meeting was at the home of Abdullah Sarhadi, a commander in Mansour's group. Sarhadi was a former Guantanamo Bay prisoner, according to Taliban sources and a Western official. "There were differences on some points which later turned into harsh words, then Sarhadi opened fire and the others returned fire," the Taliban source said.
Deep rifts
Mansour was appointed Taliban leader on July 31 soon after the insurgents confirmed the death of Omar, who led the Islamist movement for some two decades.
But splits immediately emerged in the movement following his appointment, with some top leaders refusing to pledge allegiance to him, saying the process to select him was rushed and even biased. Many were also unhappy that Omar's death had been kept secret for two years -- during which time annual Eid statements were issued in his name. A breakaway faction of the Taliban led by Mullah Mohamed Rasool was formed last month, in the first formal split in the movement. But despite the divisions, there has been no let up in insurgent attacks -- and the Taliban has seen a new resurgence under Mansour. They briefly captured the strategic northern city of Kunduz in September in their most spectacular victory in 14 years of war. Pakistan, which wields considerable influence over the militants, hosted a historic first round of peace negotiations in July. But the talks stalled soon after Omar's death was confirmed. The United States and China have been pushing for the process to restart, but frosty ties between Islamabad and Kabul have been hampering those efforts.Mansour and his two newly named deputies are seen as close to the Pakistani military establishment, which has historically nurtured and supported the Taliban.

U.S. rejects Russia’s claim against Turkey
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 2 December 2015/The U.S. State Department on Wednesday said it rejected any outright suggestion that Turkey is working with ISIS to smuggle oil after Russia accused the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family of involvement in illegal oil trade with the militant radicals. Instead, the U.S. said if Russians were concerned about ISIS’s illicit finance they should take it up with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is Moscow’s close ally. State Department spokesman Mark Toner told a news briefing that U.S. information was that ISIS was selling oil at the wellheads to middlemen who in turn were involved in smuggling the oil across the frontier into Turkey. “We reject outright the premise that the Turkish government is in league with ISIL to smuggle oil across its borders,”" Toner said, using an acronym for the militant group. “We frankly see no evidence, none, to support such an accusation.” Meanwhile, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said it is not possible to explain Russia’s claim of Turkey buying ISIS oil with reason after Turkey’s president dubbed Moscow’s sanctions against Ankara as “emotional.”“It is not possible to explain Russia’s allegations by reason,” Davutoglu told a meeting of prominent businessmen in Ankara, adding that Moscow’s punishing of Turkish businesses through economic sanctions was not in line with international law. Earlier, Russia’s defence ministry on Wednesday accused Erdogan and his family of buying illegal oil trade with ISIS, as a dispute rages over Ankara’s downing of one of Moscow's warplanes. “The main consumer of this oil stolen from its legitimate owners Syria and Iraq is Turkey. According to available information, the highest level of the political leadership of the country, President Erdogan and his family, are involved in this criminal business,” deputy defence minister Anatoly Antonov told journalists. On Wednesday, Turkey emphasized it won’t retaliate against Russia’s “emotional” sanctions. Russian Defence Ministry officials also said that they had proof of their claim. The officials, speaking at an event in Moscow, cited satellite imagery which they said showed oil tanker trucks heading from ISIS territory to Turkey and said they knew of three routes by which the oil passed into Turkey. The Defence Ministry added it would continue to launch air strikes on ISIS oil infrastructure in Syria as part of its bombing campaign.
Erdogan’s respons/In response, Erdogan also said that Russia had no right to “slander” Turkey with allegations and he does not want any further harm to relations with Russia. “No one has a right to engage in slander against Turkey by saying that Turkey is buying oil from Daesh (ISIS),” Erdogan said in comments broadcast by Turkish television on a visit to Qatar, after the Russian defence ministry claimed he and his family were involved in the illegal oil trade.(With Reuters, AFP)

Sources: Syria conference will move to New York on Dec. 18
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 2 December 2015/A conference that was meant to take place in Vienna grouping Syria’s warring sides will instead take place in New York on Dec. 18, sources told Al Arabiya’s sister channel al-Hadath on Wednesday. Before the meeting in the U.S. city, moderate Syrian opposition leaders will be meeting the Saudi capital Riyadh on Dec. 7 in an attempt to unify their stance. These conferences come after an international agreement to launch talks between the government and opposition on Jan. 1.

Algeria troops kill three Islamists
AFP, Algiers Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Algerian soldiers killed three Islamists on Wednesday during a military operation in the region of Tizi Ouzou, east of the capital, the defence ministry said. Two Kalashnikov assault rifles, a pump-action shotgun and ammunition were seized during the operation north of the city of Azzazga, said the ministry. Five Islamists have been killed since the operation was launched on Sunday. Islamist-linked violence rocked Algeria in the 1990s but has since waned, although armed groups remain active in central and eastern Algeria where they mount attacks on security forces.

Iraq PM fires trade minister wanted for graft
AFP, Baghdad Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi sacked his trade minister, wanted on corruption charges since October, for failing to show up for work, his office said Wednesday. A statement said Malas Abdulkarim al-Kasnazani was dismissed “because he has not fulfilled his duties as trade minister in over a month and is considered to have resigned”. Kasnazani and his brother were slapped with an arrest warrant in October “on charges of financial corruption”, according to the Iraqi judiciary’s spokesman. Iraqi media reports said Kasnazani is suspected of awarding contracts without tenders to firms linked to his Jordan-based brother Nehru, a wealthy businessman who once had presidential aspirations. Kasnazani could not be reached for comment Wednesday and is widely believed to have left Iraq. His father, a Kurd who once ran a militia backed by former president Saddam Hussein to oppose peshmerga rebels, is the leader of the largest Sufi order in Iraq, the Kasnazani order. Kasnazani is the highest-ranking official to be targeted by an arrest warrant since Abadi promised a crackdown on graft in August. The embattled premier, facing mounting popular discontent and large-scale protests, announced a number of measures aimed at curbing corruption and official privileges. Abadi, who has been systematically undermined by rivals from within his own bloc, has since come under renewed criticism for failing to push their implementation.Wednesday’s statement made no mention of the pending warrant against the trade minister.

U.S. ready to take next step in Iran deal
Agencies Wednesday, 2 December 2015/The United States said Wednesday that it was ready to take the next step in implementing the Iran nuclear deal after an IAEA report on Tehran's weapons program. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said that the U.N. watchdog had confirmed Washington’s long-standing allegation that Tehran had once been working on a nuclear bomb, but he added that Iran had cooperated adequately with IAEA investigators. “The IAEA report is consistent with what the United States has long assessed with high confidence,” Toner told reporters. “We made this public first in our 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, and that is that Iran had a nuclear weapons program that was halted in 2003.” But, Toner said, now that the IAEA had been able to study the program and had found no evidence that it had continued beyond 2009, the United States was ready to move ahead. “The IAEA has confirmed that Iran met its commitments to provide responses to IAEA requests under the roadmap for clarification of past and present issues,” he said. Washington and the other members of the P5+1 contact group -- Britain, China, France and Russia, plus Germany -- will submit a motion to the IAEA board on Dec. 15 to close the issue of what has been called the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s program.“And then, after that, we can focus on implementing the JCPOA,” Toner said, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed between Iran and the P5+1 powers in July. However, Israel said Wednesday that IAEA’s report shows the investigation of its activities should be intensified. “Israel expects the international community to deepen its investigation... and use all the means at its disposal to ensure that Iran is unable to secretly build a nuclear weapon,” a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said.
Iran: nuclear probe closed
Meanwhile, Iran said Wednesday it now considers the U.N. probe into allegations of past nuclear weapons research closed after a IAEA published its long-awaited report. “It can be said that all measures regarding previous issues have been completely concluded and the PMD issue has been closed,” Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television. He was referring to the “possible military dimensions” of Iran's nuclear program, which has been long investigated by the agency. Under the deal, Iran will scale back its nuclear enrichment program dramatically -- a program it has always maintained was for purely peaceful purposes -- and submit its nuclear sites to international inspection. In return, outside powers will end some of the international sanctions that have severely squeezed the Iranian economy.(With AP)

Egyptian premier in Riyadh to attend first Saudi-Egyptian council meeting
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday received Egypt’s Prime Minister Sherif Ismail in the capital Riyadh to start their first session after inaugurating a joint council between the two countries last month, the state-owned Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported. Ismail’s visit comes after the Saudi-Egyptian Coordination Council - aimed at driving momentum for joint Arab actions - was established on Nov. 11. It was agreed following the meeting for “the formation of working groups to support the council in order to complete reviewing of draft initiatives and agreements, memoranda of understanding and executive programs emanating from Cairo Declaration,” SPA quoted the council’s joint statement as saying.The Council’s second meeting will take place in Egypt, the statement said, adding that “the existing committees will also complete their work and missions within the approved period and programs.”

Egypt court orders retrial for Mubarak-era PM
By AFP, Cairo Wednesday, 2 December 2015/An Egyptian court on Wednesday ordered a final retrial in a corruption case against Ahmed Nazif, who was prime minister under ousted president Hosni Mubarak, state media and his lawyer said. Nazif, who was sidelined by Mubarak to appease protesters days before the president’s overthrow in February 2011, was convicted of using his position to amass a fortune of $8.2 million (7.5 million euros). He was sentenced in July to five years in prison in a retrial. The Court of Cassation on Wednesday accepted to hear his appeal and ordered a retrial from February 3, the official MENA news agency and Nazif’s lawyer Wagih Abdelmalak said. Its verdict cannot be appealed. Nazif is alleged to have been involved in corrupt real estate deals and to have received illegal bonuses. Mubarak and many of his former ministers were put on trial following his overthrow amid popular demands to hold them accountable for years of corruption. Many of the former regime figures have been acquitted in retrials. Mubarak and his two sons were sentenced to three years in prison earlier this year for corruption. But in October a court ordered the release of his sons Alaa and Gamal after having taken into account time served since their arrest in 2011.

Three killed in clashes under curfew in Turkey’s southeast
Reuters, Ankara Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Three Kurdish militants were killed on Wednesday in a Turkish southeastern district under curfew since a prominent Kurdish lawyer was shot dead over the weekend, the provincial governor’s office said on Wednesday. Clashes erupted in the town of Sur in Diyarbakir province, in the mainly Kurdish southeast, after Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants violated a curfew and attacked police at a check point, according to a statement on the governor’s website. One woman militant was killed at the check point, while two others were killed and one police officer was wounded during shooting that followed, security sources said. On Saturday, Tahir Elci, a Kurdish lawyer and human rights activist was gunned down in Sur. He was facing trial for saying the banned PKK was not a terrorist organization, as the government describes it. He had, however, denounced PKK violence. Elci’s killing was likely to fuel further unrest. The sub-governorate of the Sur district announced on Wednesday that a curfew had been imposed in six neighborhoods starting from 5 AM until further notice. Hundreds of people have been killed in the mainly Kurdish southeast since July, when a two-year PKK ceasefire collapsed. Special police units have imposed 24-hour curfews on several towns in a bid to root out members of PKK’s urban youth wing. The PKK took up arms in 1984, and more than 40,000 people, mainly Kurds, have died in the violence. Peace talks between the PKK and the state that began in late 2012 faltered earlier this year in the run-up to a general election.

U.S. reiterates Iraqi PM’s support for special forces
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 2 December 2015/The Iraqi government was fully briefed on U.S. plans to deploy American special forces to Iraq, Secretary of State John Kerry said on Wednesday, a day after Iraq's premier said that his country did not need foreign ground troops. Kerry added that the Iraqi government was fully briefed on the U.S. plans to send an elite unit to help combat the Islamic State of Iraq as Syria (ISIS) as announced early this week. But a day earlier, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said although his government welcomed foreign assistance, Iraq did not need foreign ground troops. “The Iraqi government stresses that any military operation or the deployment of any foreign forces - special or not - in any place in Iraq cannot happen without its approval and coordination and full respect of Iraqi sovereignty,” Abadi said in a statement. In an attempt to calm the confusion on whether the U.S. special forces unit would be welcome or not, White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters later on Wednesday - some time after Kerry's remarks - that Abadi supports the U.S. effort to send “about 200” special operations forces to Iraq, Asked about Abadi’s comments, Earnest said the remarks were directed at ground combat troops, not special operations forces. Meanwhile, powerful Iraqi Shiite Muslim armed groups on Tuesday rejected and pledged to fight any deployment of U.S. forces to the country. “We will continue to work very, very closely with our Iraqi partners on exactly who would be deployed, where they would be deployed, what kinds of missions people would undertake, how they would support Iraqi efforts to degrade and destroy ISIL.”According to U.S. officials, the new unit will be larger than the roughly 50 U.S. special operations troops being sent to Syria to fight the Sunni militants there. There currently are about 3,300 U.S. troops in Iraq, and Obama had previously announced he was sending fewer than 50 special operations forces to Syria.

Yemen ‘extremely fragile’ for aid workers, Red Cross says after kidnap
AFP, Geneva Wednesday, 2 December 2015/A Red Cross employee’s kidnapping in Yemen underscored the “extremely fragile” situation in the country for humanitarian workers, with the coming days crucial for securing the hostage’s release, ICRC Director-General Yves Daccord said Wednesday. The International Committee for the Red Cross said two people were taken by unidentified assailants on Tuesday in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, but that one was released unharmed. A Tunisian female staffer was being held hostage. “The situation in Yemen is extremely fragile for an organisation like the ICRC and the national Red Crescent”, Daccord told AFP in Geneva. “When something like this happens, the kidnap of colleagues, this is always a shock. “We have to regroup immediately, try to understand what happened. This is exactly where we are right now,” he added. Daccord said that in this type of situation, “you most likely have two to three days” to try to connect with the possible perpetrators. If “it takes more than four to five days” before solid information emerges “then you are in a totally different dynamic, and we are also aware of that,” Daccord said. The civil unrest in Yemen escalated in March when a pro-government coalition led by Saudi Arabia launched air strikes targeting Iran-backed militias. The worsening violence has heavily impacted the humanitarian relief effort. In September, two ICRC employees were killed by gunfire north of Sanaa and later that month two Yemeni volunteers with the Red Crescent and a group of civilians were killed in a Saudi-led air strike. Daccord said there had been 140 incidents of violence affecting healthcare facilities this year. Despite the increasing difficulty of working in the country, Daccord said the ICRC remains “extremely well connected in Yemen,” including the ability to talk to all sides. No details concerning Tuesday’s kidnappers have emerged, but a number of foreigners have been taken hostage in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula country in the past 15 years, mostly by tribesmen as bargaining chips in negotiations with the government.Almost all have been freed unharmed.But last December, U.S. journalist Luke Somers and South African teacher Pierre Korkie died during a failed attempt by U.S. commandos to rescue them from an Al-Qaeda hideout in southeastern Yemen.

Leaders urge restraint after assassination in Iraq’s Kirkuk
AFP, Kirkuk Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Political leaders in Kirkuk Wednesday urged restraint and unity after the assassination of a top Sunni Arab politician in the northern Iraqi city sparked fears of a flare-up. Mohammed Khalil al-Juburi, who headed the Arab bloc in the Kirkuk provincial council, was killed on Tuesday night when gunmen riddled his car with bullets. His wife Fawzia, who was also in the vehicle, died of her injuries on Wednesday morning and the pair were buried later during a funeral attended by hundreds of people. “The assassination of Juburi and his wife was aimed at the political unity of Kirkuk’s residents and their representatives,” Kirkuk Governor Najm al-Din Karim told AFP by phone. “This cowardly and terrorist act is designed to stir up conflict and create rifts between the people of Kirkuk,” he said. “But they must stand against terrorism... and maintain the province’s unity,” Karim said. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi issued a statement in which he said he had ordered a thorough investigation into the killing. Oil-rich Kirkuk is claimed by Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, which currently holds a large part of the province, and by the federal government in Baghdad. Federal forces were deployed in Kirkuk until June 2014, when they abandoned their positions when faced with an offensive by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria group that overran large parts of the country. Kurdish forces have since battled the militants in Kirkuk, but ISIS still controls territory in the southwest of the province. Kirkuk is one of Iraq’s most ethnically and religiously diverse cities and has long been seen as a tinderbox that could erupt into a major civil conflict. Yet it withstood several waves of violence over the years and maintained a degree of political cohesion.

Israeli army to allow HIV positive recruits
AFP, Jerusalem Wednesday, 2 December 2015/HIV-positive Israelis will be conscripted into the military for the first time, the army said Wednesday, a move welcomed by homosexual rights groups as an important step against discrimination.While Israeli Jews are required to do military service, people with HIV have long been exempt on medical grounds. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed this policy would be scrapped in the coming months. However, HIV-positive soldiers will not serve in combat roles but in administrative and other positions. Colonel Moshe Pinkert, head of the IDF’s medical services department, said new treatments meant the risk of HIV-positive citizens passing the disease on was limited. “Medical advancement in the past few years has made it possible for them to serve in the army without risking themselves or their surroundings,” he said in a statement on the army’s blog. The announcement, made to coincide with World Aids Day on December 1, was hailed by homosexual rights groups. “This process is a significant step towards shattering stereotypes about people with HIV,” Yuval Livnat, CEO of the Israel Aids Task Force, said in a statement. Israel’s government has long trumpeted its military’s homosexual-friendly stance. The army was among the first around the globe to provide benefits to the partners of deceased homosexual soldiers. In 2012, a photo shared by the IDF showing two soldiers holding hands went viral in Israel, sparking debate between conservatives and liberals. A pro-Palestinian homosexual campaign group, Pinkwatching Israel, has accused the IDF of seeking to use its stance to divert attention away from alleged Israeli abuses against Palestinians, describing it as “pinkwashing”.

U.N. experts: ISIS in Libya hampered by lack of fighters
Reuters, United Nations Wednesday, 2 December 2015/A bid by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to expand its territory in Libya has been hampered by a lack of fighters and the militant group is struggling to win local support because it is viewed as an "outsider," according to a report by United Nations experts.ISIS in Libya has between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters and is the only affiliate known to have received support and guidance from the extremist group's stronghold in Syria and Iraq, said the U.N. experts, who monitor ISIS and al Qaeda-linked groups for the U.N. Security Council. In a 24-page report circulated to reporters on Tuesday, they said most ISIS fighters are in the city of Sirte and while the group has "clearly demonstrated" its intention to control more territory in Libya, it seems "limited in its ability" to expand quickly. "According to several (U.N.) member states, while ISIS is able to perpetrate terror attacks in any part of Libya, its limited number of fighters does not allow for rapid territorial expansion," the report said. "In contrast to Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic, the relative sectarian homogeneity in Libya prevents ISIS from taking advantage of sectarian rifts and societal discord to quickly increase its domestic recruitment base," it said.Libya is caught up in a conflict between rival governments and their armed factions, leaving a security vacuum that has allowed ISIS to gain a foothold. The group controls swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq and sees Libya as its "best opportunity" to expand its caliphate, the U.N. experts said. They said around 800 Libyans fighting with ISIS in Libya had previously fought with the group in Syria and Iraq. "ISIS in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic continues to send emissaries with instructions, albeit infrequently, to ISIS in Libya," the report said. "The travel of these emissaries distinguishes the ISIS affiliate in Libya from other ISIS affiliates where travel of emissaries has not been reported." The group is viewed as an outsider in Libya and "is not embedded in local communities and has not succeeded in gaining the population's support," but it has attracted foreign fighters, mainly from elsewhere in North Africa. "ISIS is only one player among multiple warring factions in Libya and faces strong resistance from the population, as well as difficulties in building and maintaining local alliances," the U.N. experts said. ISIS in Libya has massacred Christian Egyptians on a local beach, publicly flogged criminals in Sirte, stormed oilfields, and attacked a five-star hotel in Tripoli.

Turkey won’t retaliate against Russia’s sanctions
Agencies Wednesday, 2 December 2015/President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday vowed Turkey would not retaliate against Russia's “emotional” sanctions imposed after the disputed downing of a Russian war plane, and stressed that he does not want any further harm to relations with Moscow. On Wednesday, Russia also accused Erdogan and his family of being involved in oil trade with ISIS. Russia has halted the sale of tours to Turkey -- a key tourist destination -- and is set to ban the import of Turkish fruit and vegetables as well as threatening other measures. “(Russia) is our strategic partner, we will continue to provide them with products including food,” Erdogan said in an interview with Turkish reporters on board his presidential plane published in newspapers. Erdogan said the Russian actions were not in line with “state dignity.”“Turkey in this regard retains its nobility. We are not using the same language as them... We are expecting them to change their language,” Erdogan said, accusing Moscow of reacting to the incident in an “emotional” way. Erdogan said there was “no question” of Turkey retaliating against Russian citizens living in the country. “Reciprocity is something that must be done within the limits of the law.” Russia supplies Turkey with more than half of its natural gas supplies but Erdogan said he was not troubled by the risk of Russia cutting down exports. “We have not lived with natural gas all our lives... this nation is accustomed to hardship,” said Erdogan, emphasising that Turkey had suppliers other than Russia. Erdogan also said Russian President Vladimir Putin had in the past spoken of the Turkish president's “courage”.“He (Putin) has (said) many words about me as an honest head of state.” Turkey may cut Russian LPG imports. However, two sources told Reuters that Turkey is preparing to cut imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Russia by a quarter next year in the first of a retaliatory move by the Turkish side. Russia imposed sanctions on some Turkish goods after Turkey shot down a Russian military jet on Nov. 24, saying it had violated its airspace. Russia refutes that, saying the plane was in Syrian air space. “Turkish firms are not simply worried about a reduction in LPG deliveries from Russia because of the current (political) situation they are already preparing for this,” one trader who works in the LPG market told Reuters. “It may be more expensive, but the process of how to ensure future deliveries from elsewhere is being worked out. We are not just talking about deliveries from Algeria, but from the United States as well.” Lavrov agrees to meet with Turk counterpart .Meanwhile, Russia’s foreign minister said Wednesday that he would agree to meet with his Turkish counterpart this week to hear Turkey’s explanations on the downing of a Russian air force jet. Sergey Lavrov said he will meet Mevlut Cavusoglu on the sidelines of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe meeting of foreign ministers in Belgrade, the Serbian capital. “We will meet with the Turkish minister of foreign affairs, we will hear what he has to say,” Lavrov said after talks with his Cypriot counterpart. He added that Turkey had consistently asked to arrange such a meeting. Lavrov said he spoke to Cavusoglu by telephone the day after the Russian aircraft was shot down, but heard only what Turkey had already stated publicly and “just some excuses.” The meeting could offer a way to de-escalate a growing crisis between Russia and Turkey.(With AFP and AP)

Russia warns against NATO expansion
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned on Wednesday that the continuing expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to the east would lead to retaliatory measures from Russia while U.S. played down Moscow’s fears.
Peskov made his statement after NATO military alliance on Wednesday invited Montenegro to join its ranks. Peskov added to journalists that the sanctions that Russia had imposed on Turkey over a downed Russian plane were different from the ones the West had imposed on Russia over the Ukraine crisis, since Russia’s sanctions on Turkey were preventative and concerned the threat of terrorism. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said after NATO invited Montenegro to join that the Atlantic organization is a defensive alliance and its decision to enlarge into the Balkans is not directed at Russia or any other nation. “NATO is not a threat to anyone ... it is a defensive alliance, it is simply meant to provide security,” Kerry told a news conference. “It is not focused on Russia or anyone else.” Kerry also said NATO members stand ready to step up military efforts against ISIS. Kerry said he asked foreign ministers from the 27 other members of the alliance to do more to strike at ISIS’s core in Iraq and Syria and strangle its international networks. He said several countries are bringing more to the battle or will do soon. Speaking Wednesday at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Kerry didn’t outline any new commitments specifically. Germany recently approved sending forces and materiel for non-combat support roles near the Middle East. A British vote is expected later Wednesday on expanding that country’s airstrikes against ISIS into Syria. Kerry said other countries would come forward with new plans after further discussions at home. (With Reuters and AP)

Israel deploys heavy security ahead of planned home demolition
AFP, occupied East Jerusalem Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Hundreds of Israeli soldiers and police deployed in an occupied East Jerusalem neighborhood on Wednesday ahead of the planned demolition of a home of a Palestinian who carried out an attack last year. Such demolitions, heavily criticized by rights groups, have regularly resulted in clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians. The home set to be demolished is located in the Shuafat refugee camp and was the residence of Ibrahim al-Akari, who carried out a car-ramming attack on November 5, 2014, killing two people, including a border police officer, police spokeswoman Luba Samri said. The 38-year-old drove his van into a group of police officers before ramming into pedestrians at a tram stop along a road separating east and west Jerusalem. He then jumped out of his vehicle and attacked bystanders with an iron bar before being shot dead by police. Israel says such demolitions act as a deterrent to potential attackers, while rights groups and Palestinians say it amounts to collective punishment, forcing family members to suffer for acts committed by someone else.

U.N. experts: Up to 3,000 ISIS fighters in Libya
The Associated Press, United Nations Wednesday, 2 December 2015/ISIS has between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters in Libya and has demonstrated its intention to control more territory in the strategically located North African country — but it is only one player among multiple warring factions, United Nations experts has said in a report. The experts monitoring U.N. sanctions against al-Qaida and spinoff groups said in the report to the U.N. Security Council that the Islamic State group is benefiting from its “appeal” and notoriety in Iraq and Syria and poses “an evident short and long-term threat in Libya.” The group’s central command views Libya “as the ‘best’ opportunity to expand its so-called caliphate” from Syria and Iraq, the experts said. The 24-page report cautioned, however, that the group “faces strong resistance from the population, as well as difficulties in building and maintaining local alliances” — and stressed that its threat “needs to be realistically assessed.” Nonetheless, the experts said there is concern at the spread of the ISIS in Libya, given the country’s strategic location on the Mediterranean Sea and its use as a transit point in North Africa. More territory would not only enable ISIS and al-Qaeda-linked groups to further influence ongoing conflicts in North Africa and the Sahel but give the extremists a new hub outside the Middle East, they said. Eight independent experts were appointed by the Secretary-General to write the report, with expertise in counter-terrorism, financing of terrorism, arms embargoes, travel bans and related legal issues. Oil-rich Libya slid into chaos following the 2011 toppling and killing of longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi. It is divided between an elected parliament and government based in the eastern port city of Tobruk and an Islamist militia-backed government in the capital Tripoli — with militants from ISIS and al-Qaeda also exploiting the chaos.

Saudi King Salman holds talks with KRG's Barzani
Saudi Gazette, Riyadh Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Saudi Arabia’s King Salman received Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG)’s President Massoud Barzani in Riyadh for talks on enhancing bilateral ties. Both leaders discussed different strategies for further cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, in addition to issues of mutual concern. The reception was attended by Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Naif, deputy premier and minister of interior, Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, second deputy premier and minister of defense, Prince Muqrin, Prince Miteb Bin Abdullah, minister of the National Guard, Riyadh Emir Prince Faisal Bin Bandar, Ibrahim Al-Assaf, minister of finance, Adel Al-Jubeir, minister of foreign affairs, Adel Al-Turaifi, minister of culture and information, and other princes and officials.

Libya’s unrecognized govt reshuffles cabinet
AFP, Wednesday, 2 December 2015/Libya’s unrecognized government on Tuesday announced a cabinet reshuffle that drastically reduces the number of portfolios but retains Khalifa Ghweil as prime minister. “The General National Congress voted today in favor of a government reshuffle to reduce the number of ministers” from 24 to 12, in addition to the post of prime minister, a GNC source told AFP. “Congress believes that such limited government is actually a crisis cabinet,” the source said, without elaborating. Since the 2011 overthrow of dictator Muammar Qaddafi, Libya has been wracked by conflict, with two rival governments along with powerful militias battling for control of key cities and the country’s oil riches. Libya Dawn, a coalition of militias including Islamists, seized the capital last year, while the internationally recognized government was forced to flee to Tobruk in the east of the country. The cabinet reshuffle also comes at a time of a harsh economic crisis.

U.S. and Russia aim to choke off ISIS finances
Reuters, United Nations Wednesday, 2 December 2015/The United States and Russia are drafting U.N. resolutions aimed at ramping up global efforts to choke off ISIS’ sources of financing, both country’s envoys said. The proposed new Security Council measure would build on a resolution adopted in February that sought to cut off millions of dollars in earnings from ISIS smuggling of oil and antiquities. U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power told reporters that the draft resolution “will consolidate and streamline the council’s recent efforts on ISIL financing” and introduce “new steps to make the sanctions more effective.”
The measure could be adopted around Dec. 17 during this month’s U.S. presidency of the Security Council. Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin separately told reporters that he was also discussing a draft measure to “tighten up” the anti-ISIS financing measures. Power said the United States would be looking at the Russian proposals to “see how these efforts come together,” but it was unclear if there would be agreement on a single draft. There is a “shared objective,” Power said. A report by the U.N.’s Al-Qaeda monitoring team released in November last year estimated that the extremist group earns $850,000 to $1.65 million per day from oil sales. U.S. officials, however, now say that oil is no longer the main source of revenue for ISIS. The resolution adopted in February calls for sanctions against individuals and entities that trade in oil with ISIS and urges all 193 UN countries to take “appropriate steps” to prevent the trade in cultural property from Iraq and Syria.

The Logic of Islamic Intolerance
Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/December 02/15
A sermon delivered by popular Saudi Sheikh Muhammad Salih al-Munajjid clearly demonstrates why Western secular relativists and multiculturalists — who currently dominate media, academia, and politics — are incapable of understanding, much less responding to, the logic of Islamic intolerance.
During his sermon, al-Munajjid said that “some [Muslim] hypocrites” wonder why it is that “we [Muslims] don’t permit them [Western people] to build churches, even though they allow mosques to be built.” The Saudi sheikh responded by saying that any Muslim who thinks this way is “ignorant” and
wants to equate between right and wrong, between Islam and kufr [non-Islam], monotheism and shirk [polytheism], and gives to each side equal weight, and wants to compare this with that, and he asks: “Why don’t we build them churches like they build us mosques? So we allow them this in return for that?” Do you want another other than Allah to be worshiped? Do you equate between right and wrong? Are Zoroastrian fire temples, Jewish temples, Christian churches, monks’ monasteries, and Buddhist and Hindu temples, equal to you with the houses of Allah and mosques? So you compare this with that? And you equate this with that? Oh! Unbelievable, for he who equates between Islam and kufr [non-Islam], and Allah said: “Whoever desires a religion other than Islam, never will it be accepted from him, and in the Hereafter he will be among the losers” (Koran 3:85). And Prophet Muhamad said: “By Him in whose hand is the life of Muhamad (By Allah) he who amongst the Jews or Christians hears about me, but does not affirm his belief in that which I have been sent, and dies in his state (of disbelief), he shall be of the residents of Hellfire.”
What’s interesting about the sheikh’s zealous diatribe is that, although “intolerant” from a Western perspective, it is, in fact, quite logically consistent and reveals the wide gap between Islamic rationalism and Western fantasy (despite how oxymoronic this dichotomy might sound).
If, as Munajjid points out, a Muslim truly believes that Islam is the only true religion, and that Muhammad is its prophet, why would he allow that which is false (and thus corrupt, cancerous, misleading, etc.) to exist alongside it? Such gestures of “tolerance” would be tantamount to a Muslim who “wants to equate between right and wrong,” as the sheikh correctly deplores. Indeed, not only does Islam, like traditional Christianity, assert that all other religions are wrong, but under Islamic law, Hindus, and Buddhists are so misguided that they must be warred against until they either accept the “truth,” that is, converting to Islam, or else being executed (Koran 9:5). As for the so-called “people of the book” — Jews and Christians — they may practice their religions, but only after being subdued (Koran 9:29) and barred from building or renovating churches and synagogues and a host of other debilitations that keep their (false) religious practices and symbols (Bibles, crosses, etc.) suppressed and out of sight.From an Islamic paradigm — where Allah is the true god and Muhammad his final messenger — “intolerance” for other religions is logical and difficult to condemn.
The “altruistic” aspect of Islamic “intolerance” is especially important. If you truly believe that there is only one religion that leads to paradise and averts damnation, is it not altruistic to share it with humanity, rather than hypocritically maintaining that all religions lead to God and truth? After blasting the concept of interfaith dialogue as beyond futile, since “what is false is false — even if a billion individuals agree to it; and truth is truth — even if only one who has submitted [a Muslim] holds on to it,” the late Osama bin Laden once wrote that “Battle, animosity, and hatred — directed from the Muslim to the infidel — is the foundation of our religion. And we consider this a justice and kindness to them” (The Al Qaeda Reader, pgs. 42-43).
Note the altruistic justification: It is a “justice and kindness” to wage jihad on non-Muslims in the hopes that they convert to Islam. According to this logic, jihadis will always be as the “good guys” — meaning that terrorism, extortion, sex-jihad, etc., will continue to be rationalized away as ugly but necessary means to altruistic ends: the empowerment of, and eventual world conversion to, Islam. All of this logic is alien to postmodern Western epistemology, which takes for granted that a) there are no objective “truths,” certainly not in the field of theology, and that b) religion’s ultimate purpose is to make this life as peaceful and pleasant as possible (hence why “interfaith dialogue” in the West is not about determining the truth — which doesn’t exist anyway — but finding and highlighting otherwise superficial commonalities between different religions so they can all peacefully coexist in the now).
The net result of all this? On the one hand, Muslims, who believe in truth — that is, in the teachings of Islam — will continue attacking the “false,” that is, everything and everyone un-Islamic. And no matter how violent, Islamic jihadis — terrorists and murderers — will always be seen as the “good guys,” and thus assured of support by millions of Muslim sympathizers and supporters. On the other hand, Western secularists and multiculturalists, who believe in nothing and deem all cultures and religions equal, will continue to respect Islam and empower Muslims, convinced that terrorism is an un-Islamic aberration that has no support in the Muslim world, and thus destined to go away — that is, they will continue disbelieving their own eyes. Such is the offspring of that unholy union between Islamic logic and Western fallacy.

The New French "Résistance"
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/December 02/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6994/new-french-resistance
Some spoke of "resistance," but to them, resistance meant listening to music. A man on a talk show said he was offering "free hugs."
A French judge, Marc Trevidic, in charge of all the major Islamic terrorism cases over the last ten years, said a few days before the November attacks in Paris that the situation was "getting worse" and that "radicalized groups" could "carry out attacks resulting in hundreds of deaths." He was quickly transferred to a court in northern France, where he has been assigned to petty crimes and divorce cases.
All the French political leaders know that the situation is out of control, but not one will say so publicly. Not one has asked the government why it took almost three hours for the police to intervene during the attack at the Bataclan Theater, where 89 people were murdered and over 200 wounded.
France's political leaders are apparently hoping that people will get used to being attacked and learn to live with terrorism. In the meantime, they are trying to divert the attention of the public with -- "climate change!"
Several weeks have passed since Islamist attackers bloodied Paris. France's President François Hollande is describing the killers as just "a horde of murderers" acting in the name of a "mad cause." He adds that "France has no enemy." He never uses the word "terrorism." He no longer says the word "war."
France never was, in fact, at war. Police were deployed on the streets. Special Forces had to "intervene" a few days later in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis. That was it.
French forces did bomb positions of the Islamic State in Syria; and Hollande traveled the world to find coalition, but could not. Now he says he wants to turn a page. The French public seems to want to turn a page, too.
From the beginning, pacifism and appeasement filled the air. A German pianist came to play John Lennon's Imagine in front of the Bataclan Theater; since then, other pianists have come. On the Place de la République, people assemble every evening to sing more songs by the Beatles: All You Need Is Love; Love Me Do. Candles are lit, and banners deployed, calling for "universal brotherhood."
Those invited to speak on TV about what happened allude to "senseless acts." They do not blame anyone.
Some spoke of "resistance," but to them, resistance meant listening to music. To others, it meant having a drink with friends in a bar. In a widely circulated video, a man tries to reassure his child. "They have guns," he mutters, "but we have flowers."
Heart-shaped stickers are posted on mosques. Words such as "We love you" and "We share your pain" are written on the hearts.
Just after the attacks, French philosopher Michel Onfray said that France for many years had led Islamophobic bombings against the Muslim world, so "it was logical if the Muslims now attacked France."
When his words were used in an Islamic State propaganda video, and reporters asked him if he regretted what he said, he replied, "No."
A man who lost his wife in the Bataclan massacre said on a talk show that he would live in the future as he did before; that he had no hatred at all against the murderers, just compassion. Another man on a different talk show said he was offering "free hugs."
If some French think otherwise, they are silent.
All political leaders in France speak like Hollande. They say the country must show "unity" and "solidarity." All of them know the mood of the vast majority; even those who might want to say more, stay silent.
Almost no one mentions radical Islam. Those who do, prefer the word "jihadism," and rush to emphasize that "jihadism" is "not related to Islam." Hollande, when he still spoke of war, said that France had "an enemy." He avoided the word "Islamic," instead referring to the Islamic State by its Arabic acronym, "Daesh." He knew that "Daesh" could not be defeated without an American intervention that would not take place. With symbolic gestures, he did the best he could. He also seems to know that the main enemy of France is not in Syria or Iraq, but inside the country: France already finds herself defeated.
More than half the Islamists who attacked Paris on November 13 were Muslims born and raised in France. Mohamed Merah, the murderer of Jewish children in Toulouse in 2012, and those who attacked the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and the kosher supermarket in January all were Muslims born and raised in France. Over 750 no-go zones -- autonomous areas ruled by radical imams and Muslim gangs -- exist in France.
Radical imams and Muslim gangs also control most of France's prisons: 70% of prison inmates in France are apparently Muslim. Non-Muslim inmates are attacked and threatened; many are forced to convert to Islam. A British survey published in 2014 showed that 16% of French approve of the Islamic State. Among people aged 18-25, the proportion rose to 27%. Within the French Muslim population, the numbers are undoubtedly higher. More than 1000 French Muslims have left France to fight for the Islamic State. At least 400 have returned without being stopped or vetted at a border. Thousands of radicalized French Muslims have never left. Many are good, loyal citizens; but many could have learned all they wanted to know on the internet and on Islamic satellite television stations. Still others -- hundreds of thousands of French Muslims -- are not radicalized but are ready to help the radicalized ones; ready to host them or offer them asylum. More than 10,000 French Muslims are classified as extremely dangerous by the police and are linked to "jihadist activities". They are registered in what the French government calls "S files," but there is no way to monitor their whereabouts. Placing them all in detention centers would involve a complete break with what is left of the rule of law in France.
All of the French Muslims who participated in the November 13 attacks were registered in "S files," but that did not change anything. They were free to act, and they did. For the first time in Europe, suicide bomb attacks took place. The explosive used to make suicide belts, triacetone triperoxide (TATP), is powerful and extremely sensitive to friction, temperature change and impact. Making belts containing TATP requires a "professional." A French judge, Marc Trevidic, in charge of all the main Islamic terrorism cases over the last ten years, said a few days before the November attacks that the situation was "getting worse," was now "out of control," and that "radicalized groups" established in the country could "carry out attacks resulting in hundreds of deaths." He was quickly transferred to a court in Lille, northern France, where he was assigned to petty crimes and divorce cases.
All the French political leaders know that Marc Trevidic is right -- that the situation is out of control -- but not one will say so publicly. Not one has asked the government why it took almost three hours for the police to intervene during the attack at the Bataclan Theater, where 89 people were murdered and over 200 wounded. There are simply not enough well-trained police, and not enough weapons in the hands of the police, and not enough bulletproof vests. For the next few months, more soldiers and police officers will be placed in front of public buildings, synagogues, churches and mosques, but "soft" targets, such as theaters, cafés and restaurants, are not protected. It is as easy to enter a theater in Paris today as it was on November 13. French police do not have the right to carry a weapon when they are on duty.
In a few weeks, French military actions against the Islamic State will doubtless stop. President Hollande, the French government, and most French political leaders probably hope that the French will soon forget the attacks. They know that the problems are now too widespread to be solved without something resembling a civil war. When more attacks occur, they will talk of "war" again. They are supposedly hoping that people will get used to being attacked and learn to live with terrorism. In the meantime, French politicians are trying to divert the attention of the public with -- "climate change!" The conference in Paris will last a fortnight. President Hollande says he wants save the planet. He will be photographed next to America's Barack Obama and China's Jiang Zemin.
French journalists are no longer discussing jihad; they are discussing "climate change."
Until December 11, at least, Paris will be the safest city.
In June 2015, five months after the January attacks, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said that the French had to "adapt to Islam". In November, he added that "Islam has to stand up to jihadism". The French Council of the Muslim Faith, offering "condolences" to the families of the victims, specified that Muslims were "victims" too, and that they should not be "stigmatized."Regional elections will be held on December 6th and 13th, the same time as the conference on climate change. Polls show that the rightist party, National Front, will almost certainly win in a landslide. Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front, did not depart from the calls for "unity" and "solidarity." She is, however, the only politician to say unambiguously that the main enemy is not outside the country, but within. She is also the only politician to say that a return to security implies a return to border controls. A National Front victory does not, however, mean that Marine Le Pen will win the 2017 presidential election: all the other parties and the media might band together against her.France's National Front is part of the increasingly popular rejection of the European Union. The invasion of Europe by hundreds of thousands of mostly Muslim migrants has strengthened that stance. The Islamist attacks in Paris, combined with the state of emergency decreed in Belgium for several days after the attacks, have helped this rejection to gain more ground. In addition, the news that several of the Paris terrorists came to France among illegal migrants -- and had successfully used false Syrian passports to enter Europe, where they could go from country to country unhindered -- did not help. The rise of populism is slowly destroying the unelected, unaccountable, and untransparent European Union. Many European mainstream journalists see this change as a "threat."The real threat to Europe might be elsewhere. "The barbarians," wrote the commentator Mark Steyn, "are inside, and there are no gates." After the attacks in Paris, Judge Marc Trevidic, again, raised the possibility of simultaneous attacks in several cities in France and in Europe. He said that if these attacks took place, the situation would become "really serious". He said he had documents to show that Islamist groups were planning to organize such attacks. If the suicide bombers, he said, had been on time at the Stade de France, before the 79,000 spectators had entered, the death toll could have been worse. He concluded that too little had been done for too long, and that now it was probably too late. During the November 27 official ceremony in Paris honoring the victims of the attacks, a song, If We Only Have Love, by Jacques Brel -- selected by President Hollande – was sung: "If we only have love - We can melt all the guns - And then give the new world - To our daughters and sons."How could an Islamist not be moved by that?

U.S. Prisoner Release Policy: Terrorists Yes, Americans and Human Rights Heroes No
George Phillips/Gatestone Institute/December 02/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6984/us-prisoner-release-policy
When Carlos Manuel Figuerosa Alvarez climbed over the wall of the U.S. Embassy in Havana, U.S. officials turned him over to Cuban police, who, according to reports, detained him and immediately began to beat him. Did U.S. officials assess if Figuerosa's safety was in jeopardy? Did they ignore their own policy that a Cuban may be eligible for refugee status in the U.S. if they are a human rights activist or former political prisoner?
A recent report by the Director of National Intelligence showed that of those so far released from Guantanamo Bay, 116 have returned to terrorist or insurgent activities and another 69 are suspected of having done so. These figures represent nearly 30% of released detainees.
President Obama pledged, "We are not going to relent until we bring home Americans who are unjustly detained in Iran." But "we" have relented. If not, what are "we" doing to secure the release of the four Americans unjustly in Iranian prison?
The Obama Administration, to the chagrin of opponents of rogue regimes and terrorism, has made generous deals with the autocratic governments of Cuba and Iran, and seems in the process of making the release of terrorist detainees in Guantanamo Bay a cornerstone of its foreign policy.
On Monday November 16 -- two days after terrorists murdered 129 innocent people in Paris -- five more terrorist detainees were released from Guantanamo Bay detention camp in Cuba.
All five were originally from Yemen and are being released to the United Arab Emirates, a central location in the Middle East from where they can easily return to a life of terrorism.
Of particular concern is the release of Ali al-Razihi, a bodyguard of Osama bin Laden; a review board initially turned down his release.
Declassified documents show that al-Razihi received advanced Al Qaeda training and served in Bin Laden's 55th Arab Brigade.
A report by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) this spring showed that of those so far released from Guantanamo Bay, 116 have returned to terrorist or insurgent activities and another 69 are suspected of having done so.
If you combine these two figures, it represents nearly 30% of those who have been released from Guantanamo Bay.
How can we be sure that the five men released to the UAE will not follow the same path?
On the other side of Cuba, in Havana, at the U.S. Embassy -- which should serve as a bastion of freedom in an oppressed nation -- a troubling event occurred on September 30.
When Carlos Manuel Figuerosa Alvarez climbed over the wall of the U.S. Embassy and began shouting, "Down with Raul!" -- meaning Cuban dictator Raul Castro -- U.S. officials turned him over to Cuban police, who, according to reports, detained him and immediately began to beat him.
Figuerosa -- who had originally been arrested at a Human Rights Day protest in 2013 -- was one of the 53 Cuban political prisoners released after a year and half of negotiations that led up to the announcement that the Obama Administration would be opening an embassy in Havana and press for an end of the U.S. embargo on Cuba.
The U.S. State Department said it would not comment on Figuerosa's case; it was a security issue.
Whose security was at risk? Was it the security of U.S. Embassy workers, because of Figuerosa's protest, or was it Figuerosa's himself because of the brutal regime he was protesting?
Did U.S. officials ask who Figuerosa was or assess if his safety was in jeopardy?
Did U.S. officials fail to neglect information on their own website -- specifically for the U.S. Embassy in Havana – which mentions the policy that a Cuban national may be eligible for refugee status to the United States if they are a human rights activist or a former political prisoner?
When U.S. officials turned Figuerosa over to Cuban police, did they consider what might happen to him in the hands of Cuban authorities? Their own State Department Human Rights Report for Cuba states the protocols for "detainees and prisoners [who have] endured physical abuse" and "were subjected to extended solitary confinement, beatings, restrictions on family visits, and denial of medical care."
Did U.S. officials know that he was one of the 53 political prisoners whose release the Administration had spent so much time and effort trying to secure?
When Cuban dissident and former political prisoner Carlos Manuel Figuerosa Alvarez climbed over the wall of the U.S. Embassy in Havana on September 30, U.S. officials turned him over to Cuban police. When the Obama Administration negotiated the Iran nuclear deal, there were four American citizens unjustly imprisoned in Iran: Christian pastor Saeed Abedini, U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati, Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian, and former FBI and DEA employee Robert Levinson. When asked why the release of American hostages was not being advanced as part of the Iran nuclear deal, President Obama's response was to warn about "the logic that that creates. Suddenly, Iran realizes, you know what, maybe we can get additional concessions out of the Americans by holding these individuals..."
With the final nuclear deal, the Iranian regime will be getting up to $150 billion in sanctions relief in exchange for dubious inspections of nuclear sites they can control by delaying. After this incredible giveaway to a leading state sponsor of terrorism, what leverage does the U.S. now have to secure the release of these Americans unjustly in Iranian prison? Shortly after the Iran nuclear deal was signed -- by the P5+1 nations but not by Iran -- President Obama pledged, "We are not going to relent until we bring home Americans who are unjustly detained in Iran." Then -- nothing. It appears yet another deception of the "you can keep your doctor" ilk. "We" -- by the way, who is included in that? -- have relented. If not, what are "we" doing to secure the release of these four Americans unjustly in Iranian prison?Five more suspected terrorists are released from Guantanamo Bay, while four Americans are languishing in Iranian prisons -- and a brave voice of freedom in Cuba is turned away. George Phillips served as an aide to Congressman Chris Smith of New Jersey, working on human rights issues..

Gossip grows as Rouhani skips meetings
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
Conservative Iranian media outlets have been buzzing with the news of President Hassan Rouhani’s continued absence from the country’s Expediency Council meetings, which is chaired by his political mentor, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.According to Fars News, Rouhani clashed with the Expediency Council over the writing of the country’s Sixth Development Plan, a five-year plan meant to address the needs and future goals of the country. Expediency Council member Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi told Fars News Nov. 30 that Rouhani had objected to the council’s involvement in writing the specifics of the development plan, arguing that it is the administration’s job. However, the majority of the members of the council did not vote with Rouhani, and Rouhani skipped subsequent meetings. When asked if the president was intentionally avoiding the meetings, using a Persian term for “sulking,” Mohammadi Araghi said that this was his impression after hearing Rafsanjani's comments about the issue. As president, Rouhani is obligated to attend Expediency Council meetings. Reports in the Iranian media have not given the exact number of meetings Rouhani has missed. Farda News, which is associated with Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was one of the first outlets to report on Rouhani’s absence. According to the Nov. 17 Farda report, Rouhani had not attended a council meeting in two months.
During a Nov. 24 press conference, administration spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht said that Rouhani’s absence from the council meetings was the result of his busy work schedule. However, Rouhani’s absence from the Nov. 28 council meeting inspired comparisons to his predecessor, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who boycotted Cabinet meetings for 11 days when he clashed with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over his selection for the minister of intelligence position. In addition to avoiding the Cabinet meetings, according to Farda, Ahmadinejad at one point also boycotted the Expediency Council for three years. Conservative Iranian media outlets have used the opportunity to attack the president, Reformists and their long-time rival, Rafsanjani. Many shared a picture of the Nov. 28 meeting with a conspicuously empty seat next to Rafsanjani.
Yalasarat, the news site for Ansar-e Hezbollah, reported that both Rouhani and Ahmadinejad having problems with Rafsanjani’s leadership of the council shows that the council is really “for the unemployed.” The Expediency Council was originally created to resolve disputes between the Guardian Council and the parliament, but today it serves more as an advisory role for the supreme leader. According to Yalasarat, Rouhani had boycotted the council meetings previously for three months after differences arose over the governor of the Central Bank. Reformist media organizations have rejected the attacks on Rouhani and the comparisons to Ahmadinejad. Ghanoun reported that differences between Rouhani and Rafsanjani are “fiction that only has a place in the hopes of extremist movements opposed to the administration.” The Ghanoun article claimed that by using the term for “sulk,” supporters of Ahmadinejad are inappropriately attempting to draw a comparison to the former president for his refusal to show up to work for those 11 days. The article continued that Rouhani’s silence, inaction by the administration’s media team and the preoccupation of Rouhani’s supporters with the upcoming parliamentary elections have resulted in Rouhani’s political opponents effectively pursuing destructive strategies against the president.

US threatens to bypass Baghdad and arm Sunnis against IS
Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
The US has put Baghdad on notice that it could lose military support if Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi doesn't do more to integrate Sunnis. Lawmakers of both parties have run out of patience with Shiite sectarianism that is seen as a major obstacle preventing more Sunni tribes from turning against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS). Their frustration boiled over at a Dec. 1 hearing of the House Armed Services panel during which legislators demanded that the Obama administration turn the screws on Baghdad. "Are we ... sitting side-by-side with them and being very clear in our communication that the funding that they're getting by the will of the American taxpayer is at risk and they will lose it if they don't progress?" asked Rep. Chris Gibson, R-N.Y., a veteran of four combat tours in Iraq. "That's the kind of leverage I'm talking about."The top civilian and military defense officials both concurred. "That's the kind of leverage I'm talking about, too," Defense Secretary Ash Carter answered. "And the answer is yes." And the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph Dunford, said he wouldn't hesitate to recommend that the US directly support other actors on the ground if working with Abadi doesn't pan out. Many Sunnis have been reluctant to fight IS because they feel discriminated against by the government in Baghdad and threatened by Iran-backed Shiite militias. "I don't personally have a better idea than to enable the current government of Iraq to be successful, to provide the kind of stability and security within which we won't see organizations like [IS]," he said. "And if at any point in the future ... I believe that assumption — that we can get there — no longer obtains, then I will recommend a completely different campaign plan to get after [IS] inside of Iraq."
The comments come amid a renewed lobbying push by Sunni tribal leaders intent on getting their concerns heard in Washington. They argue that Iranian influence runs deep in Baghdad and that Abadi's hands are tied. At least five different groups of Iraqi Sunni leaders have registered to lobby on behalf of Sunni interests over the past 18 months, including the nonprofit Peace Ambassadors for Iraq just last week. The nonprofit is chaired by Sheikh Jamal al-Dhari, who recently told The Washington Times that Russia has been courting Sunni tribal leaders frustrated by US admonitions that they work out their concerns with Baghdad. The Dec. 1 hearing and other recent statements by lawmakers suggest their message is getting across. Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., called for the creation of a 100,000-man strong Sunni Arab and Turkish force during a visit to Baghdad this past weekend. The issue of Sunni dissatisfaction has also bled into the presidential race. "We need to lay the foundation for a second Sunni awakening," Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton said in her Nov. 19 Council on Foreign Relations speech. "We need to put sustained pressure on the government in Baghdad to get its political house in order, move forward with national reconciliation, and finally stand up a national guard. Baghdad needs to accept, even embrace, arming Sunni and Kurdish forces in the war against [IS]. But if Baghdad won’t do that, the coalition should do so directly."And Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a top-tier presidential candidate, has called for the United States to deploy special operations troops to aid a ground force of Sunni Arabs. “It’s the only way to do it," he said Nov. 22. "They have to be defeated by a ground force and have to be made up primarily of Sunnis." The committee that grilled Carter and Dunford had previously taken the lead in authorizing the Obama administration to directly support Kurdish and Sunni forces. The provision is included in the annual defense bill that President Barack Obama signed into law last week. "What is our strategy to get Sunnis in Iraq to be willing to fight [IS]?" asked the top Democrat on the committee, Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash. "What is the concrete, clear plan to make that happen?"
Carter said there were four "streams" through which the US is working with Baghdad to get more Sunnis into the fight. He indicated frustration with the progress with at least two of them. "The first is through the Iraqi security forces themselves, which are now in sectarian terms about 20% Sunni — that's one of the seeds of this whole problem from the beginning and the collapse of the Iraqi security forces," Carter said. "We'd like more." The second stream, he said, is the Popular Mobilization Units, mostly militias of Shiite tribal fighters that operate under the umbrella of the Iraqi Ministry of Interior. "This is where we have a problem: The Iraqi government has authorized many more Shia than Sunni [units], Carter said. "We need them to authorize more Sunni [units] and we are prepared to train them."He said the elite US-trained Iraqi counterterrorism force and the Kurdish peshmerga are the other two streams. He also said Sunni police would also play a crucial role once IS is dislodged from Sunni areas.
"It's not going to work for Shia forces to participate in holding and governing those," Carter said. "We need Sunni police forces and we're working on them too, so that when Ramadi is recaptured, when Mosul is recaptured, the peace can be kept there by people who are local."Dunford said continued US military aid was contingent upon progress in those areas. He said one metric "is the specific number of Sunnis that we think need to be integrated and trained ... and we are working that with the Iraqi government." Dunford added, "That's a recognized objective and they know our support is contingent upon meeting certain conditions." Some lawmakers weren't buying it, and urged Carter and Dunford to follow through on such threats. "Will we really walk away from Iraq if the government doesn't meet those conditions?" asked Rep. Beto O'Rourke, D-Texas. Carter doubled down. He said the United States' "leverage involves offering to do more for those who are pursuing the same objectives, and withholding our support from those who are taking a different path and not going down the path they're supposed to."He suggested the United States could bypass the Abadi government if it doesn't find a way to convince Sunnis that fighting IS is in their best interest. "So we find alternatives; we find people who will act, if the people that we're dealing with are not capable of that," Carter said. "Because we have to act. And we will find such forces that are capable."

Sisi supporters secure second round elections victory
Ayah Aman/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
CAIRO — Results of the second round of parliamentary elections held Nov. 22 and 23 painted the features of the Egyptian parliament’s political composition with the emergence of coalitions and alliances associated with the political regime. These coalitions and alliances are expected to back the regime inside Egypt’s parliament, particularly in the absence of a political party linked to, or representing, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in the legislature. According to final results announced by the Supreme Electoral Commission on Nov. 25, 29.83% of eligible voters participated in second round electoral districts. The governorates of Sinai, Kafr el-Sheikh and Dakahlia registered the highest rates, for reasons that observers linked to clan and family mobilization in favor of particular candidates in those districts. The Cairo governorate recorded the lowest percentage, despite the momentum engendered in the capital’s electoral districts by the candidacy of a number of public figures with media fame. For the second time, the regime-backed “For the Love of Egypt” list won all 60 seats allocated for lists in the second round of elections. It thereby became the only list to achieve victory in the first and second rounds of parliamentary elections, with a total of 120 seats, or 20% of parliamentary seats. On the other hand, voting for the 222 individual seats saw victories achieved by only eight candidates in the second round of elections, most of whom are businessmen and media personalities, such as political analyst Samir Ghattas, businessman Talaat al-Suweidi and former Cabinet minister during Hosni Mubarak’s reign, Ali al-Mseilhi.
Thus candidates from three political parties will have runoff elections to fill the remaining 214 seats: 55 candidates from the Free Egyptians Party, 50 from the Mostaqbal Watan Party (Future of a Nation), 43 from the Wafd Party and only eight candidates from the Salafist Nour Party. These candidates, who are contesting the runoff round from Nov. 30.-Dec. 2, included 100 candidates associated with the dissolved National Democratic Party in addition to 12 women and 14 Coptic Christians. In that regard, parliamentary affairs researcher Yosri al-Azbawi told Al-Monitor, “Second round results were heavily skewed in favor of parties, due to the fact that major political parties attempted to entice and attract the most influential candidates. The Free Egyptians Party, the Mostaqbal Watan Party and the Wafd Party will continue to dominate the political scene due [to] their parliamentary representative strength; while leftist parties suffered major setbacks due to various reasons — most importantly their lack of financial resources and inability to compete in a battle mainly ruled by political money.”
Al-Azbawi added, “Despite the influence of political money in deciding the outcome of a large number of seats, the process of buying votes was unsuccessful in many districts. Among them Nasr City east of Cairo, where a Coptic candidate won, despite competition from a number of businessmen there.”
The political money phenomenon saw a strong resurgence in the second round when compared to the first round of elections held from Oct. 17-28, with 1,000 Egyptian pounds ($127) paid per vote in some electoral districts, as monitored by the Joint Local-International Election Observation Mission.
The Supreme Electoral Commission, however, contented itself with issuing a decision on the first day of voting Nov. 22, barring the taking of post-voting cellphone photos of ballots, which was the method used by candidate representatives to ascertain how people voted prior to paying them money.
The first round results that were announced Oct. 30 pointed to a pre-runoff landslide victory by candidates and parties not known for opposing the regime. Since then, preparations began under the leadership of the For the Love of Egypt list, which won a majority in the four nationwide electoral districts, to form a majority coalition of 300 parliamentarians, as Maj. Gen. Sameh Seif al-Yaza, the General Rapporteur of the said list, announced in press statements Nov. 26.
Despite the fact that nine Mostaqbal Watan candidates won as part of the For the Love of Egypt list, the unexpected successes of this newest party to the political scene amplified the ambitions of its representatives in parliament. In that regard, the party’s spokesperson, Ahmed Hassan, told Al-Monitor, “We shall not take part in any parliamentary coalitions, but shall form our own coalition therein. The party’s success in winning the largest number of seats in the face of long-established political parties is proof of our party’s great ability to gain the confidence of voters. It is also largely due to the presence of a young popular base that mobilized to achieve the results seen.”In this context, the Salafist Nour Party is the biggest loser in this electoral battle, having vacillated between participating or withdrawing from the elections after its leadership’s unexpected defeat. This is despite it being a key element of the prevailing political scene on June 30 and its support of the army in the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood’s regime.
Shaaban Abdel Alim, the party's assistant secretary-general, explained to Al-Monitor, “The party fell victim to a fierce disinformation campaign by official and private media outlets, in keeping with the agendas of state intelligence institutions and businessmen. Electoral bribery and voter reluctance to participate were additional reasons for the party’s electoral failures. Yet the party’s lackluster parliamentary representation does not equate to the end of our work on the political scene, and is not indicative of weakness. The results may have been disappointing, but we shall examine the underlying reasons and endeavor to strongly return to the political arena.”The instability in north Sinai continues, particularly after the killing of two of the judges overseeing elections in a suicide attack that targeted their headquarters in el-Arish on Nov. 24. A number of judges had received anonymous threats, warning against their participation in the first round of elections. In light of this, the Supreme Electoral Commission reaffirmed the holding of runoff elections in four of the governorate’s districts. The electoral race will rage on until the second round runoff elections ends on Dec. 2, to be followed by the swearing in of a new parliament, which is expected to be less vocal against, and more acquiescent to, the government and political regime, with the political scene dominated by symbols and parties loyal to the president.

What the killing of a Kurdish human rights lawyer means for Turkey
Hande Yalnizoglu/Al-Monitor/December 02/15
Sur is the 7,000-year-old historic district of the southeast Anatolian city of Diyarbakir. Its well-preserved Roman fortifications bear the marks of several civilizations that came to life by the banks of the Tigris River. Inside the historic walls are mazelike streets lined with ramshackle one-story houses painted in the brightest shades of pink, blue and yellow. On a typical day, the main artery is filled with vendors selling everything from vegetables and school supplies to CDs of Kurdish music. Until over a year ago, foreign tourists could be found scavenging around the numerous historical sites tucked away in the small alleyways.Then came the advances of the Islamic State in bordering Iraq and Syria, such as its capture of Mosul in June 2014, scaring away potential visitors. Even worse has been the renewed violence between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) since July, engulfing the district in violence not seen since peace negotiations started in 2013. A few days ago, Sur was shocked by the assassination of Tahir Elci, prominent human rights lawyer and the head of Diyarbakir’s bar association. On the morning of Nov. 28, Elci stood in front of the bullet-ridden Four-Footed Minaret – a 500-year old mosque minaret whose unique split legs symbolize the four sects of Islam. Regarded as a symbol of unity within the religion, the minaret is also believed to bestow luck on all who walk beneath its legs. It was badly damaged last week in clashes between the police and members of the Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement (YDG-H), a group involved in urban guerilla operations and ideologically affiliated with the PKK.
"The historic minaret is calling out to humanity," declared Elci. "It is saying, 'They shot me in my feet. I have seen wars and disasters but have never seen such betrayal.'"Like other Kurdish towns, Sur witnessed senseless violence erupt over the summer. A bomb detonated by IS in the border town of Suruc killed 33 members of socialist youth federations in July. The PKK retaliated by killing two police officers it claimed had links with the terror group. The peace process collapsed. The government launched widespread anti-terror operations while dozens of security personnel were killed in PKK attacks. Hundreds of Kurdish politicians and activists have been arrested. In what was largely seen as a political move to win back the Kurdish vote lost in June by offering the population with a choice between stability or conflict, Kurdish towns like Silvan, Cizre and Nusaybin were targeted in curfews and harsh operations under a complete media blackout. Such draconian measures continue to this day. Journalist Fatih Pinar documented the situation in Sur, which was put under curfew for four days in October. In his video, traumatized residents describe the killing of Helin Sen, a 12-year old girl shot by the police on her way to a bakery during curfew hours. A man describes how he lost all his animals that were terrified by the sounds of the clashes. One young boy summarizes the events with an odd smile on his face: "There was war here for four days." After the curfew was lifted, sporadic clashes continued between security forces and the YDG-H, damaging historical sites. On Saturday, Elci called for "wars, arms, clashes, operations" to end "in this common site of humanity, which was home to numerous civilizations."In the last decade, several Kurdish mayors made significant efforts to restore the multicultural heritage of Sur, which is home to Syriac and Chaldean churches, synagogues and mosques built over centuries. The most significant was the 2011 restoration of Surp Giragos, one of the largest Armenian churches in the Middle East. Since then, the church has attracted Armenians from all over the world searching for their roots in the city that was home to their families until the tragedy of 1915. The man most credited for the restoration, former Sur Mayor Abdullah Demirbas, was among hundreds arrested in August for alleged links to the PKK.
Elci, who defended Demirbas on several occasions, embodied the same humanistic values. He worked tirelessly on cases of torture and forced disappearances that took place during the state’s security operations of the 1990s. Some of his most arduous work was in defending the rights of religious minorities. Nurcan Baysal, a columnist for the website T24, quoted the sentiments of Gule Simsek, a Chaldean woman whose husband disappeared in 1993. She said that Elci, who was their lawyer, "was not important just for the Kurds. He was important for people from every identity, religion, ethnicity in Kurdistan."
Elci had recently entered the spotlight for his statement that the PKK was not a terror group but rather an armed political movement. Soon after, he was arrested for engaging in terrorist propaganda but released pending trial. A brutal media campaign targeted him with death threats and insults. On his Twitter account, he was defiant, writing, "Whoever is afraid of you is as vile as yourself."He held that his statement did not suggest blanket sympathy for the PKK but was rather an outcry directed at nationalists that an organization with a vast social base among Turkey’s Kurds couldn’t be eradicated by security measures. In one of his last interviews with Aydinlik newspaper in October, he had criticized the organization’s guerilla strategies of digging trenches, building barricades and forcing children to boycott school. The PKK’s "people’s war is against the people," he said. "It damages the foundations of coexistence."
While an investigation has been opened, there is little hope that his true killers will be identified. While pro-government newspapers such as the Daily Sabah place the blame on the PKK, Peoples' Democratic Party co-chair Selahattin Demirtas claimed that a police bullet killed Elci. Tragically, Turkey’s scarred political history is no stranger to killings of prominent figures whose honest politics of moderation threaten certain interests in society or the state. The case of Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, who dedicated his life to peace and was shot in front of his office in 2007, remains unresolved after almost a decade.
In his final message, Elci asserted that societies that do not own their history cannot build secure futures. Both the history he wanted to protect and the future he wanted to build were ones of peaceful coexistence. As Turkey enters another political episode defined by violence and confrontation, it is such voices of peace and moderation that are in the greatest danger. With their silence, the already too fragile bonds of society are at risk of irreparable damage.

UAE National Day: United we stand, united we succeed
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
Dec. 2, 1971 was much more than a simple signing of a treaty, it changed our lives forever. It broke down not only physical borders and barriers, but over time it brought the leaders of seven neighboring states together as one body, moving in the same direction towards peace and prosperity. And what an incredible journey it has been! Some call it miraculous. Working hand-to-hand, we turned desert wastelands and small fishing villages into magnificent modern metropolises. Whereas we once dug wells for water, today we have spectacular fountains, waterways, vast green spaces and flower-lined streets. Every modern innovation is available in this land of opportunity, the envy of the region and the world. Most importantly, Emiratis and foreign residents alike, have the advantage of living in safety in a country that perfectly balances freedom with security, a country that is free of corruption, one that is admired for its honesty and transparency. It always saddens me each time I hear foreign human rights organizations criticize the Emirates for running a tight ship in a climate where danger lurks ready to strike. This is a country of laws. We have rules meant to keep people safe, so they can enjoy life to the full without fear. Such laws and rules are well publicized and those who wilfully break them know they will face justice.
Dealing with the global terrorist threat
Our government is right to deal harshly with those seeking to do us harm before they have an opportunity to implement their plots. We are not an open house for criminals or spies. We do not accept our children to be harassed by drug dealers. We welcome all visitors with open arms as long as they respect our cultural norms. And at a grave moment in history when Europe is vulnerable to terrorist attacks and rightly pulling up the drawbridge, due to sheer geographical proximity to the terrorists’ breeding grounds, our government is right to deal harshly with those seeking to do us harm before they have an opportunity to implement their plots.In truth, were Arab countries splintering from terrorism, sectarianism and secessionists to emulate the inclusive spirit of the United Arab Emirates where people of all nationalities and religions live together in harmony, the area would be devoid of conflicts.
Wars not only destroy a nation’s economic growth and its infrastructure, it envelops the souls of its citizens with a cloud of hopelessness, pessimism and consumes their inherent love of a country. The Emirates is always willing to assist its fellow Arab states to emerge from a dark tunnel in the same way it is currently supporting Egypt emerging from four years of turmoil on its economic blueprint.
A shining example
And once the bombs stop falling and the nests of terrorists are eradicated, it is my hope that they will look to our country as a shining example and seek our expertise in bringing people together pulling in the same direction instead of pulling apart. That requires a certain type of leadership, one in which its citizen’s needs are paramount. People need to be educated and made to understand that western-style democracy cannot be transplanted; we have seen how that has worked in the years since the misnamed ‘Arab Spring’ which turned reasonably stable Arab states with rich natural resources into impoverished hotbeds of violence and terrorism. When we look around us, our hearts go out to the suffering of so many of our Arab brothers and sisters, but at the same time we must thank our lucky stars that we are not in the same boat. Actually, the stability we enjoy has less to do with luck than our hybrid system of governance allowing our leaders to make fast decisions in cases of emergency without having to plead with lawmakers as Britain’s David Cameron is now doing to get permission to bomb Daesh, which is threatening his country’s shores and has already attacked Britain’s major ally France. Will the British Parliament still be debating if, God forbid, London comes under attack? Arab leaderships must develop sufficient confidence to formulate a way of government that suits their country’s unique demands instead of bowing to the demands of foreign powers to work towards becoming clones. They should not favor one community or sect over another but should endeavor to envelop all under one flag, just as the Emirates has always done.
Founding fathers
For this we owe our abiding gratitude for the initiative of the UAE’s founding fathers the late Ruler of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, and Dubai’s late ruler Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum. These great men understood the importance of unity and together strove to achieve what to others seemed like an impossible dream. They treated all citizens like their own children. They nurtured our soil as if it was their own gardens. Their legacy of care was inherited by their sons who guide us ever onwards and upwards today.
They taught us that with the strength of will combined with imagination there is no mountain too high to climb. I was privileged to know them. Their wise words of advice will always be inscribed on my mind. They exchanged separation for solidarity and it is that feeling of ‘one for all and all for one’ that binds us so tightly together that we are invincible. The close collaboration between the Emiratis, people and leadership is not only exemplary, but also rare, and especially so in the troubled neighborhood in which we live. Nov. 30th, ‘Martyrs’ Day’ commemorated our courageous soldiers’ selfless duty and reminds us that some of our bravest and best are no longer with us. No one understands the importance of service to the country more than me. I was ready to take up arms in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait had I been called to defend my country. I am proud that some of my grandsons have recently enrolled in the UAE Army where they are learning self-discipline, brotherhood and greater love of our precious soil. Finally, I salute our leaders, our young men in uniform prepared for the ultimate sacrifice and our people, who have committed their talents over the past 44 years to making the United Arab Emirates a success story beyond parallel. I pray for the safety, security and sustainability of our growth and the leading position we are forging in the world. And I am sure that whatever fate throws in our way our unity of purpose will ensure we will always prevail.

Boredom at the ballot box in Egypt
Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
It’s almost all over. A parliamentary election for Egypt’s House of Representatives, which has dragged on for over a month and has been about as boring as it has been complicated, is drawing to a close. There have been two stages to the elections, each with a run-off and a complicated ballot in which the large majority of seats has been contested by individuals running as “independents”. A minority – about 25 percent – of the total seats in the new parliament have been contested by party lists and there are so many candidates for the “independent” seats that in most cases in the first round, and now in the second round, no candidate had secured a majority of the vote. In the first round of the second stage there were 2,803 candidates competing to fill 222 seats for “independents”, and 196 individuals competing for the 60 seats for party lists.
Political alliances
There are four serious alliances – broad coalitions combining parties and leading personalities – and one party running outside of the alliances, all of which support President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to a greater or lesser degree. In the 2014 presidential election, Sisi encouraged Sabahi to remain in the race. He welcomed the opposition. This time around Sisi did not do so. That was a mistake. The For The Love of Egypt coalition – which includes three political parties including Wafd, the oldest liberal political party in Egypt, and two post-Mubarak era parties – is believed by many Egyptians to be the alliance favored by Sisi. The president denies that he is supporting any alliance, but the feeling persists and For The Love of Egypt has swept all of the party list seats. It is no secret that the various alliances backed a number of candidates for the “independent” seats, which is why I put the word within quotation marks. For The Love of Egypt-backed candidates took a large number of those seats in the first-stage run-off, and are expected to do well in the second stage, and could conceivably end up with a majority of the seats in the new parliament.
The big surprise is that the Salafist al-Nour Party – which did so well in the last parliamentary election, having coming in second behind the Muslim Brotherhood’s party – has done so poorly this time around.
But the Salifists are not one organized and disciplined movement like the Brotherhood. Rather it is a religious perspective in which each individual Salifi sheikh, of which there could easily be two thousand in Egypt, and his immediate followers constitute a movement. Many Salifis who voted for al-Nour the first time around, when the party participated in a short-lived coalition with the Muslim Brotherhood, were opposed to the party’s support for the army after it deposed former President Mohammad Mursi. They are expressing that by boycotting this election.And of course the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters have boycotted this election. While most of the Brotherhood cadre, and all of its leaders, are either in prison or in exile, the ordinary voter supportive of the Brotherhood, be they member or sympathizer, has stayed at home following orders to boycott. If an estimated 25 percent of the registered voters are members or sympathizers of the Brotherhood, it would be reasonable to assume that at least 40 percent of the many Egyptians who boycotted the elections did so out of sympathy for the Brotherhood.
Voter fatigue
What about the rest? Many are simply suffering voter fatigue: Since the January 2011 uprising, there have been two elections for parliament, at least two referendums and two presidential elections. The Egyptian youth was most notably absent from the lines of voters in this election. Many had participated in the 2011 uprising, and their high hopes of dramatic change in both the political and economic life of the country have not materialized. They are at best bored with politics – and, at worst, they are now hostile to Sisi. But one of the reasons for the boredom is that there was no real opposition party alliance in the race. That is because two small but serious parties – the Al-Dostour party and Socialist alliance – boycotted the elections. If those two parties had formed an opposition alliance of their own, many of those who stayed at home might have come out to vote. Their decision to boycott, for whatever reasons, was a mistake.
In the 2014 presidential election, when the one opposition candidate Hamdeen Sabahi came under pressure from some of Sisi’s most over-enthusiastic – or, conceivably, opportunistic – voices in the local media to drop out of the contest, it was Sisi whom spoke out and encouraged Sabahi to remain in the race. He welcomed the opposition. This time around President Sisi did not do so. That too was a mistake.

Russian-Israeli relations reach new heights
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
A hastily arranged meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back in September caused some raising of eyebrows. It took place almost immediately after Russia made its intentions known to intervene militarily in Syria. This was enough to raise the alarm bells among the decision makers in Israel to seek an urgent meeting, aimed at ensuring that both countries’ interests would not clash over the Syrian skies. Accompanied by top Israeli generals for his talks with Putin, Netanyahu sought to coordinate Russian military operations in Syria with Moscow to avoid both accidental firing inside Israel, as well as clashes between the two air forces. After the meeting the Israeli prime minister said somewhat cryptically, that “In Syria, I’ve defined my goals. They’re to protect the security of my people and my country. Russia has different goals. But they shouldn't clash.” The current concern in Israel is that the theater of war in Syria is becoming increasingly congested with international actors, especially Russia, and consequently its maneuvering room there is becoming increasingly restricted. Considering the escalation in relations between Turkey and Russia as a result of the downing of the Russian Su-24 bomber aircraft last week, the importance of such military coordination in the currently congested Syrian airspace became obvious. In contrast, when a Russian warplane recently erroneously entered Israeli-controlled airspace from Syria, it was warned and immediately returned to Syria without further frictions. In the relatively small Syrian airspace, the U.S.-led international coalition and Russian and Israeli air forces are carrying out a considerable number of sorties. Not all of them have the same aims in mind, though with the exception of Israel, they are all committed to destroying ISIS. Nevertheless, they also run the risk of clashing with one another. Only time will tell whether a very irritated Turkey was just looking for an opportunity to shoot down a Russian fighter jet, as an act of deterrence from future violations of its airspace, or rather if there was an agenda regarding the nature of the war in Syria. Whatever the circumstances of this incident, it is precisely the sort of situation, bearing in mind its far-reaching implications, that Israel wants to avoid. The conundrum for Israel is how to achieve this target without compromising its strategic aims in Syria.
Air superiority
For decades Israel has had complete superiority in patrolling the skies of both Syria and Lebanon. It enabled intensive intelligence gathering and, on occasion, the carrying out of military operations. The country’s two fundamental strategic aims in Syria have not changed since the war in its northern neighbor’s country began. Its primary concern was to ensure that weapons and ammunition, which could change the balance of power between the Jewish state and Hezbollah, would not be transferred from or through Syria to the Iranian-backed Lebanese movement. While Hezbollah is one of the backbones of support for Bashar al-Assad, it is regarded as an arch enemy by the Israelis. The second red line drawn by the Israeli security was to deter the ‘leaking’ of Syrian hostilities into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, or even further into Israel proper. This two-tier approach has been adhered to for nearly five years by attacking suspected arms convoys and thus stopping them from heading toward Hezbollah’s strongholds. Israel has also been responding with, mostly restrained, military power to any firing across the border with Syria. The current concern in Israel is that the theater of war in Syria is becoming increasingly congested with international actors, especially Russia, and consequently its maneuvering room there is becoming increasingly restricted.
Converging and conflicting interests
Russia and Israel have both converging and conflicting interests in war-torn Syria. Originally Israel was rather agnostic over whether it was in its best interests for the Assad regime to survive in power. But considering the alternatives to the current regime in Damascus and especially the rise of ISIS, Israel is tacitly getting closer to Russia’s position that the survival of the current regime in Syria is in its best interest. However, for the Assad regime to prevail, Israel has to swallow the bitter pill of Iranian and Hezbollah active involvement in Syria for probably a very long time. These concerns are surmounted by Israel’s uneasiness about the sale of Russian S-300 anti-air missiles to Iran and the visit this year to Moscow by Qassem Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force, which is regarded by Israel as a threatening entity. Relations between Israel and Russia under Putin have improved in recent years, as has military cooperation.
These developments are perceived by the Israeli decision makers as an existential, direct, and immediate threat. Netanyahu went as far, in a recent interview with CNN, to imply that Iran might attempt to transfer nuclear weapons to Hezbollah. He warned that no one would stop his country from averting such an eventuality. Regardless of the customary Netanyahu nuclear rhetoric, Israel is genuinely troubled by the transfer of advanced military conventional capability to Hezbollah. Nevertheless, if thwarting it runs the risk of a direct Turkey-like clash with Russia, then at least avoiding an accidental clash is an imperative for both countries. Both Moscow and Jerusalem will have to handle this new situation with great caution. Relations between Israel and Russia under Putin have improved in recent years, as has military cooperation. Recently, for instance, Israel has agreed to sell 10 unmanned IAI Searcher 3 drones to Russia, despite concerns about the close military ties between Russia and Iran. Also on a political-personal level Netanyahu has a rather keen interest in nurturing a better understanding with Russia, especially if one considers his strained relations with American President Obama. However, in the ever-growing intricacies of the Middle East in general, and Syria in particular, Russia’s proximity to the Israeli border presents mixed fortunes for Israel.

Turkey needs to talk tough to calm Russia
Mahir Zeynalov/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
Russian President Vladimir Putin was one of the first foreign leaders to visit the sumptuous palace of his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He even called the Turkish president a “firm leader.”These two leaders, popular at home but loathed in the West, courted each other for much of their more-than decade-long rule in their respective nations. They disagreed on Syria, along with many other regional issues, but kept ramping up bilateral trade. Russian tourists enjoyed Turkish resort towns; Turkish contractors struck lucrative deals in Russia. This strange relationship collapsed overnight when Turkish jets downed a Russian warplane for violating Turkish airspace. Russians were outraged. Turks were triumphant – until they realized how far Russians could go in making Turkey pay.
Russian surprise
Moscow’s reaction to the downing of its warplane was harsh: Putin described the incident as a “huge mistake” while Russian officials vowed that Turkey will pay the price. The focus of the first round of Russian sanctions against Turkey ranges from imports and tourism to football players. There is as yet no word on sanctions on the Russian energy supply, the area that Turkey fears could hurt it the most. Russian surprise is understandable. Throughout the Cold War and in its aftermath, Russia and the Western bloc had an understanding. Both jockeyed for geopolitical influence in many territories, but they knew exactly what their red lines were. This included tolerating the frequent violations of airspace. As part of this understanding, the U.S. and Russia agreed on an air-safety protocol in Syria to avoid unwanted incidents. Russia is out for blood and Turkish attempts to de-escalate the situation only increases the Russian appetite.
The agreement on air-space safety regarding Syria, where Russia and the U.S. are running separate air campaigns, did not include other coalition nations, according to the U.S. State Department. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, however, believes that Turkey violated this protocol by shooting down its aircraft. Turkey claims that its military rule of engagement on the Syrian border, in place since Syria shot down its plane in 2012, was made crystal clear and that Moscow was warned repeatedly about violating Turkey’s airspace. For Russia, which is frequently testing NATO’s airspace, this is no good reason to shoot down a plane.
ISIS oil business
To understand this incident, Russia came up with a rather bizarre explanation: Turkey shot down the Russian plane to defend its oil business with ISIS. Few days before the Russian jet incident, Russia announced that it hit at least 500 trucks that ISIS uses to smuggle oil. U.S. officials disputed the Russian figures as “exaggeration.” Last week, the Pentagon said it destroyed 399 trucks used to smuggle oil to Turkey and Iraq. Both Putin and Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev claimed that they have data to suggest that some Turkish officials are benefitting from this oil trade. Erdogan initially categorically rejected the “ugly slander,” but later said such oil trade, if any, could not be tied to the official government in Ankara. The Russian claim is astonishing beyond description. ISIS may smuggle oil into Turkey and several rogue local Turkish officials may benefit from this business. Turkish farmers would enjoy cheaper oil and they could not care less who is selling them. Turkey deserves blame for not fully cracking down on this illicit oil business. But shooting down a plane of a major power to defend this business does not make sense: Linking the jet incident to the ISIS oil business is ludicrous at best.
Putin Vs Erdogan
To explain Erdogan, Western pundits often draw parallels with Putin. Both are powerful leaders who rule their countries with an iron fist and with quite similar tactics. Round-the-clock anti-Turkish propaganda on Russian TV networks reeks of Turkey’s own version of defaming and demonizing opponents of Erdogan. Both leaders are also obsessed with their popularity at home. The shortcut to preserve their approval rating has mostly been ratcheting up the anti-Western rhetoric. Turkey’s soft rhetoric is exactly what fuels Russian antagonism. Being tough has always been the most effective weapon in containing Russian aggression. The downing of the Russian jet was a humiliating snub for Putin as he works hard to justify his adventure in Syria. To prop up his popularity, he needs to go on a major offensive against Erdogan. For several days, Ankara has been trying – quite unsuccessfully – to de-escalate the tensions and calm down Russia. This is what Turkey cannot understand: Russia is out for blood and Turkish attempts to de-escalate the situation only increases the Russian appetite. In handling Russia, perhaps Turkey could follow the path of the West, which has a long history of containing the Soviet expansionism and Russia’s imperial ambitions. This includes directly confronting Russia. The case about the Russian supply of natural gas is highly exaggerated. Russia needs Turkish cash as much as Turkey needs the Russian gas. It would be foolish of Russia to push Turkey to find alternative gas suppliers. Russia could upset Turkish plans and designs in Syria, but the cost of losing Turkey is not small. As faithful followers of realpolitik, Russian policymakers will have to rethink its strategy of alienating Ankara. Moscow could partner up with Turkey to dilute NATO’s resolve in extending its security umbrella all the way to Ukraine and the Caspian Sea. To avoid irritating Russia, for example, Turkey kept silent when Russian forces occupied some parts of Georgia and Ukraine, both Turkey’s land and sea neighbors, over the past seven years. Since 1568, when Ottomans and Russians first fought, nine out of 12 Russian-Turkish battles were over Crimea. Turkey is also perhaps the only country that could destabilize Russia’s Chechen community, Putin’s everlasting nightmare. Turkey’s soft rhetoric is exactly what fuels Russian antagonism. Being tough has always been the most effective weapon in containing Russian aggression.

As Turkey confronts Russia, World War III looms ever closer
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December 02/15
Right after the Russian fighter jet was downed by the Turkish F16 over Syria, most of the commentators expressed confidence that Moscow would not go to escalation over the incident. The reasons they gave were simple. Turkey did not join the Western sanctions following the Ukrainian crisis. Russia depends a lot on Turkish imports, and trade was rising. Russia needs Turkey to avoid gas transit to Europe through Ukraine. Turkey was the number one destination for Russian tourists, and the two countries have a lot of projects in the economic, industrial and energy spheres. The only point they missed in their analyses, however, was that Russia stopped being properly rational some time ago.
Deterioration of relations
Russia and Turkey had been developing their relations over two years, despite their disagreement over the situation in Syria and future of Bashar al-Assad. The first signs of a deterioration in relations came right after the launch of Russian airstrikes in Syria. Four days before the downing of the fighter jet, Ankara demanded the immediate cease of operations, and threatened serious consequences in case Russia ignored its warnings. The Turkish “stab in the back” came with the downing of Su-24, when the deterioration reached its apogee. The red line was crossed. From this point the relations between the two countries degraded, putting the world on a very dangerous path.
Economic interests
It was wrong of political experts, politicians and world leaders to expect Russia to forgive the death of its pilot and the downing of its jet for the sake of economic interests. Following the huge economic losses as a result of the sanctions imposed on it by its Western counterparts, Russia has started a very risky play on the international stage. What really matters for the Russian leaders now is to defend the image of a powerful, mighty and uncompromising country, ready to bear losses in defending its rightfulness and vital national interests. It is a luxury that not all countries can afford. From the Russian side the most vital thing in the current situation is to save face and to respond to the Turkish slap in the face. It’s a matter of honor and thus irrational. Russia took steps to punish Turkey. It effectively banned outbound tourism to Turkey, which is likely to cost Turkey billions of dollars per year. Many mutually profitable projects across many spheres will be suspended. Russian companies will be banned from employing Turkish citizens from Jan. 1. Many Turkish organisations, including cultural ones, will be closed or their activities will be highly limited by the Russian authorities, and the process has already started. The cultural ties were the first to feel the blow of the Russian reaction to the Turkish provocation. Many of the measures also cause considerable damage to the Russian economy and interests. Turkey’s move to create difficulties for some Russian ships passing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles is not in Russian interests at all. However from the Russian side the most vital thing in the current situation is to save face and to respond to the Turkish slap in the face. It’s a matter of honor, and thus irrational.
Fight against ISIS
Among other things, Russia accuses Turkey of not playing fair in the fight against ISIS. After the accusations were officially announced, many international journalists from some of the most powerful news agencies – including The Guardian, Financial Times and New York Times – agreed that the accusations were not groundless.It is globally acknowledged that Turkey is a jihadi hub, and a gateway that provides ISIS with new recruits from all over the world. Calls for Turkey to close its Southern border remain unheard by Ankara, despite Moscow’s accusations. Turkey prefers to shunt the attention on to other subjects, such as its right to defend itself, as if Russia was menacing Turkey. Nevertheless, the Russian calls for a deeper investigation into the matter remain unheard, and the European Union earlier this week promised Turkey visa-free entrance for its citizens, in return for Turkey helping stem the flow of refugees into Europe. The West cannot afford the luxury of being principled, as the military bases and aerodromes are far more precious than any proof of Turkey's involvement in the ISIS business. However, the escalation can go too far and can threaten not only the international fight on ISIS, which has just shown the first signs of coordination following the Paris attacks and efforts of the French president, but also global stability and peace. Russia's deployment of its sophisticated S-400 air defence system in Syria, and the presence of Turkish submarines near the Russian cruiser Moskva, have put the world one step away from a full-scale war. The problem with Turkey for Russia and the international community is its NATO membership. And even if Turkey itself put the world on the doorsteps of the World War III, in case of the further escalation the NATO members will have to take its side. Such escalation is extremely undesirable for all sides. However the risk of dramatic mistakes from the confronting sides is extremely high. And the risks are becoming even greater, taking into account that now there are too many NATO-member forces involved in the fight against ISIS, and not all of them are going to coordinate with Russia.