LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 02/15

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.december02.15.htm 

Bible Quotations For Today
For the Son of Man came to seek out and to save the lost
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 19/01-10: "He entered Jericho and was passing through it. A man was there named Zacchaeus; he was a chief tax-collector and was rich. He was trying to see who Jesus was, but on account of the crowd he could not, because he was short in stature. So he ran ahead and climbed a sycomore tree to see him, because he was going to pass that way. When Jesus came to the place, he looked up and said to him, ‘Zacchaeus, hurry and come down; for I must stay at your house today.’So he hurried down and was happy to welcome him.
All who saw it began to grumble and said, ‘He has gone to be the guest of one who is a sinner.’ Zacchaeus stood there and said to the Lord, ‘Look, half of my possessions, Lord, I will give to the poor; and if I have defrauded anyone of anything, I will pay back four times as much.’ Then Jesus said to him, ‘Today salvation has come to this house, because he too is a son of Abraham.For the Son of Man came to seek out and to save the lost.’

You who were distanced and far off you have brought near by the blood of Christ
Letter to the Ephesians 02/11-16: "Remember that at one time you Gentiles by birth, called ‘the uncircumcision’ by those who are called ‘the circumcision’ a physical circumcision made in the flesh by human hands. remember that you were at that time without Christ, being aliens from the commonwealth of Israel, and strangers to the covenants of promise, having no hope and without God in the world. But now in Christ Jesus you who once were far off have been brought near by the blood of Christ. For he is our peace; in his flesh he has made both groups into one and has broken down the dividing wall, that is, the hostility between us. He has abolished the law with its commandments and ordinances, so that he might create in himself one new humanity in place of the two, thus making peace, and might reconcile both groups to God in one body through the cross, thus putting to death that hostility through it.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 01-02/15
Aoun rejects Franjieh as president, informs Hezbollah/Joseph A. Kechichian/The National/December 01/15
In unexpected twist, Assad ally may be Lebanon's President/Tom Perry and Laila Bassam/November 30/15
How one Egyptian beauty queen lost her citizenship/Rami Galal/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
The tumbling turban: Who is behind attacks on Reformists in Iran/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
Islamic State extends its tentacles into Yemen/Ashraf al-Falahi/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
Will natural gas cartel be successful in setting LNG, CNG prices/Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
Why defeating the Islamic State won't bring stability to Iraq/Ali Mamouri/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
Who's afraid of the 'intifada'/Shlomi Eldar/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
Russia's Failed Adventure in Syria/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/December 01/15
Women’s role in Saudi municipal elections is a huge step/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
Arabs caught between Turkey’s Sultan and Russia’s Tsar/Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
Should Saudi Arabia see Putin as threat/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
Iran’s bad gamble on Syria/Andrew Bowen/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
Breaking the ISIS economy through forensics/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 01-02/15
Mashnouq Visits Geagea amid Mustaqbal-LF Tensions
2 Hurt as Israel Detonates Spy Device on Marjeyoun Road
Army Arrests Member of Osama Mansour's Terror Group
Six Charged with Executing Soldier Mohammed Hamieh
Report: Aoun Refuses Franjieh as President, Informs Hizbullah
Nusra Front Releases 16 Servicemen after 15 Months of Captivity
Officials, Families Hail Release of Servicemen, Hope IS Hostages Will Be Freed
Salam Welcomes Freed Servicemen at Grand Serail, Thanks Qatar as Ibrahim Lauds Hariri, Nasrallah
Asiri Lauds Release of Servicemen, Hopes Lebanese Unite over Presidential Candidate
Report: Franjieh's Presidential Nomination Product of International Deal
Report: Mustaqbal Informs Hizbullah, AMAL of its Nomination of Franjieh as President
Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Urge Maintaining Dialogue among Parties to Speed Up 'National Agreements'
Nasrallah-Velayati Meeting Highlights Regional Developments
Hizbullah Urges 'Punishment' for 'Terrorists who Committed Crimes against Servicemen'
FPM Voices Dismay after Footage Shows 'Lebanese Land Occupied by Terrorists'
Aoun rejects Franjieh as president, informs Hezbollah

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 01-02/15
Blast Hits Istanbul Metro, Six Injured
Operation Begins to Resettle 25,000 Syrians in Canada
Syria Deal for Rebels to Leave Last Homs District
Syria's Assad Accuses France of 'Supporting Terrorism'
UK Parliament to Vote Wednesday on Joining Syria Air Strikes
Obama Calls on Turkey, Russia to Focus on 'Common Enemy' IS
Jewish Extremist Sentenced to 3 Years for Jerusalem School Arson
Saudi Death Row Cleric in 'High Spirits'
Qaida Warns Saudi against Executing Jihadists
Yemen Shelling Kills another Saudi Border Guard
Two Jordan Police Killed in Shooting near Syria Border
Clinton Vows No U.S. Troops in Syria, Iraq
Two Attempted Stabbings near Israeli Settlements, Attackers Shot
Suicide Bombing against Shiite Pilgrims in Baghdad Kills 9

Links From Jihad Watch Site for December 01-02/15
Muslims plotted murder of Pope: “this will be the last Pope”
Muslim cleric: Christians must pay the jizya or move out
57 Paris airport workers on terror watch list, “Allahu akbar” scrawled on fuel tank
Turkey denies widespread report that intel chief advocated establishing consulate for ISIS
Trump under fire for saying “there’s something going on” with Islam
Video: Obama in Paris on shootings: “This just doesn’t happen in other countries”

Mashnouq Visits Geagea amid Mustaqbal-LF Tensions
Naharnet/December 01/15/Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq visited Tuesday Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in Maarab, amid underlying tensions between al-Mustaqbal movement and the LF. The relations were strained between the two March 14 allies after a meeting in Paris between Mustaqbal leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh of the March 8 camp. On Monday, al-Mustaqbal newspaper hit back violently at the “indirect message” that Hariri received from Geagea on Friday, when the latter urged commitment to the “principles and objectives of March 14.”“Hariri has the motto 'Lebanon First' at the top of his objectives,” the daily said, stressing that the ex-PM does not resort to “agitation, deceit or maneuvering” in his political conduct. On Friday, Geagea had stressed that the March 14 coalition “must not make any step unless it serves the principles and objectives of March 14.” The remarks came amid a flurry of political talks in the country between parties from both the March 14 and March 8 camps. The Franjieh-Hariri meeting has sparked intense speculation that they agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency.

2 Hurt as Israel Detonates Spy Device on Marjeyoun Road
Naharnet/December 01/15/Two people were lightly wounded Tuesday as Israel blew up a spy device planted on the Marjeyoun Plain road in southern Lebanon, state-run National News Agency reported. It said the two men were working in the area of the blast, “which is several kilometers away from the border with the Israeli town of Metulla.” “The army and security forces immediately arrived on the scene and cordoned off the area and the two sides of the road to preserve the safety of citizens,” NNA added. “A probe was launched after the blown up device was extracted,” the agency said. Hizbullah's al-Manar television said the blast was caused by two explosive devices that were connected to the spy device. Several similar devices were discovered in the South in recent years, some of them booby-trapped. In September 2014, Hizbullah military expert Hussein Haidar was killed as an Israeli drone remotely detonated a spy device he was dismantling in the southern coastal town of Adloun.

Army Arrests Member of Osama Mansour's Terror Group
Naharnet/December 01/15/The Lebanese army arrested overnight a member of Osama Mansour's terrorist group in Tripoli's Bab al-Tabbaneh, the National News Agency said on Tuesday. Khaled Makkieh was arrested in the vegetable market of Bab al-Tabbaneh for participating in attacks against army positions in the northern city of Tripoli, NNA added. Islamist militant Osama Mansour was killed in April by the police during an operation to arrest a radical cleric in Tripoli. The militants have led armed groups that engaged in deadly gunbattles with the army in Tripoli and its surrounding areas.

Six Charged with Executing Soldier Mohammed Hamieh
Naharnet/December 01/15/State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr charged on Tuesday six people with executing soldier Mohammed Hamieh in September 2014. Detainee Ali al-Lakkis, who was arrested last week, is among the accused. The remaining suspects are at large. Saqr also charged them with belonging to the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front. Hamieh was among 35 serviceman who were abducted by al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State group in the wake of clashes with the army in the northeastern border town of Arsal in August 2014. Nineteen soldiers were killed in the fighting. Since their abduction, four serviceman were executed by their captors. The Nusra Front on Tuesday released all 16 of its captives, while the rest remain held by the IS. Lakkis was arrested at Rafik Hariri International Airport on November 27 as he attempted to leave the country through a fake Syrian passport.

Report: Aoun Refuses Franjieh as President, Informs Hizbullah
Naharnet/December 01/15/Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun has informed his ally Hizbullah of his rejection to nominate Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh for the post of presidency, An Nahar daily said on Tuesday. Aoun, himself a candidate of March 8 alliance, has also informed Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geaega of the stance, added the daily. The MP announced on Monday that it is up to the March 8 coalition to decide whether or not to nominate Franjieh for the presidency. His stances come amid a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency. However, Aoun said Monday that he has not been officially informed until the moment of any “agreement” between Hariri and Franjieh. He added: “Why should Suleiman Franjieh's nomination come from Saad Hariri?” Asked about the feasibility of a settlement involving a March 8 president and a March 14 premier, Aoun described such a scenario as a “fair solution” while stressing that “each camp must choose its own candidate.”

Nusra Front Releases 16 Servicemen after 15 Months of Captivity
Naharnet/December 01/15/The al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front released on Tuesday 16 servicemen it had abducted from the northeastern border town of Arsal in 2014. The servicemen were released through a Qatari-mediated deal that also included a prisoner swap to release a number of inmates from Lebanese jails. The swap took place on the outskirts of Arsal. The servicemen were transported to Lebanon by the Red Cross amid scenes of jubilation among their loved ones, who were monitoring the developments in Beirut. The servicemen told MTV that they were treated well by their captors, thanking General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim, Health Minister Wael Abou Faour, Qatar, and other officials for their efforts to ensure their release. They also hoped that attention would be focused on the displaced families on the Lebanese-Syrian border to help provide them with aid.
Hours later, the freed men arrived in Beirut, dressed in their police and military uniforms, clean-shaven, and with their hair freshly cut. An official welcoming ceremony was held for them at the Grand Serail. They later celebrated their freedom along with their families at the nearby Riad al-Solh Square before they headed to their hometowns. Thirteen inmates, including five women, were freed in exchange for the servicemen, said al-Jazeera television. They include the divorcee of Islamic State leader Abou Bakr al-Baghdadi, Saja al-Dulaimi. She told reporters at the scene that she had divorced al-Baghdadi six or seven years ago and that she intends to head to Turkey. The prisoners were originally intended to be handed to al-Nusra, but a security source told AFP that at least 10 of them were returned to Beirut instead, at their request. A lawyer who had overseen the mediation efforts said that the deal calls for allowing the displaced present on the outskirts of Arsal to receive monthly batches of aid. A safe zone will also be set up in Wadi Hmeid to ensure the security of civilians, he revealed. The deal also includes catering to the displaced people's legal affairs in Lebanon, he said. “The Lebanese government and Qatari sponsor have pledged to coordinate these efforts with us,” he added. Prime Minister Tammam Salam is set to meet with the servicemen at the Grand Serail, reported Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5). Earlier, the Red Cross had received the corpse of soldier Mohammed Hamieh, who was executed by al-Nusra Front in September 2014. His body had been taken to the military hospital in Beirut to undergo DNA tests to verify his identity. Nine hostages are being held by the IS and their families do not know much about their fate, said LBCI television on Tuesday. Ibrahim later stated: "Our joy today will not be complete until the release of the hostages held by the IS."“We are ready to hold negotiations with the IS to release the captives if someone on their end voices readiness to do so,” he added. Nineteen troops were killed in August 2014 in clashes that erupted between the army and the al-Nusra Front and IS. The servicemen were abducted in the aftermath of the fighting. The release of the 16 servicemen ended months of anxiety over their fate after the two groups had previously executed four of the hostages

Officials, Families Hail Release of Servicemen, Hope IS Hostages Will Be Freed
Naharnet/December 01/15/Officials welcomed on Tuesday the release of the servicemen that were kidnapped by the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front, while hoping that efforts will be made to ensure the release of the hostages held by the Islamic State extremist group. Health Minister Wael Abou Faour paid a visit to the sit-in held by the servicemen's families in downtown Beirut, pledging that the “state will not waver in exerting efforts to release the remaining hostages.” Head of the Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri declared via Twitter: “We thank all those who contributed to the release, especially Qatar.”“We congratulate the servicemen on their return to freedom and to their homeland. This is a joyous occasion for all the Lebanese and a victory for the perseverance of the army and security forces against all pressure,” he added. These sentiments were echoed by Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq, who said: “The seriousness of the General Security did not go in vain and its efforts resulted in the release of the abducted soldiers.” For its part, the General Security said in a statement: “We will spare no effort to bring back the servicemen kidnapped by the IS.” Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh meanwhile congratulated the Lebanese people on the release of the servicemen and hoped the rest will be freed as well. Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi told al-Jazeera television: “Today we close the chapter of the servicemen held by al-Nusra Front and hope to focus attention on ones held by the IS.” The AMAL movement later said: “The joy on this day remains lacking given that some hostages are still being held by the IS.” Meanwhile, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea hoped there will efforts for the released of the IS-held hostages, thanking Qatar and its leadership, Prime Minister Tammam Salam, General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim “and everyone who contributed to the release of our servicemen.”In downtown Beirut, where relatives of the kidnapped servicemen have manned a protest camp since they were seized, there were tears of joy and relief. Relatives gathered around televisions to watch as their sons, husbands and brothers prepared for their release. Several screamed and ululated and even broke into the Middle Eastern dance known as dabke to express their joy. Others distributed sweets or threw petals and rice into the air. "I've been awake day and night for the last few days, because there were positive signs," said Marie Khoury, whose brother George was among the released men. "There will be seven days of drumming and celebrations in Kobayat," she said, of their ancestral village. 'Don't forget about us' - But she added: "Our joy is incomplete without the release of those held by the Islamic State group and we hope that the Lebanese state will intensify its efforts for their release."Amid the celebrations, the mother of one of the IS hostages came to congratulate the families of those being freed, but quickly dissolved into tears. "Don't forget about us," she pleaded with them, as they assured her they would continue to pressure the Lebanese government to secure the release of the remaining hostages.Sixteen servicemen held by the al-Nusra Front were released earlier on Tuesday through a Qatari-mediated deal that included the prisoner swap with the extremist group. They were released on the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal after 15 months in captivity. They were abducted in the wake of clashes between the army and the IS and al-Nusra Front in Arsal in August 2014. Four of the hostages were executed, while nine are still being held by the IS.

Salam Welcomes Freed Servicemen at Grand Serail, Thanks Qatar as Ibrahim Lauds Hariri, Nasrallah
Naharnet/December 01/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam and General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim on Tuesday saluted all the local and external parties that contributed to the release of 16 servicemen who were held by al-Nusra Front, during an emotional welcoming ceremony that was held at the Grand Serail. “Our heroes endured and persevered and we also endured with them, which allowed us to achieve this joy. I cannot but remember the martyrs on this occasion, the last of whom was Mohammed Hamiyeh,” Salam said, referring to four servicemen who were executed by al-Nusra and the Islamic State group. “Trust your State and government,” he added, addressing the Lebanese. “We will carry on with our efforts to make more achievements,” Salam vowed. Uncertainty is still shrouding the fate of nine other servicemen who were also kidnapped in August 2014 from the northeastern border town of Arsal at the hands of the IS. “Domestic efforts were exerted through the government, the crisis cell and all the security agencies,” Salam announced. “The judicial authorities have also helped us to cross to freedom and to Lebanon's dignity,” he added. “In the name of you all, I extend gratitude to all the countries and leaders who contributed to this happy ending, especially the State of Qatar and its emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad,” Salam said. At the domestic level, Salam said he especially thanks Maj. Gen. Ibrahim and the General Security institution. For his part, Ibrahim said he is “awaiting the day of joy when we recover the IS-held servicemen.”“I thank the members of the crisis cell. I thank ex-PM Saad Hariri who supported us in the negotiations and I thank (Hizbullah chief) Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah but I will not go into details now,” he added. “Because Lebanon is the country of freedom you have returned free. You have returned to the State and to your country and families,” Ibrahim went on to say. “We thank everyone who contributed to our efforts … The negotiations were difficult but we did not renounce our sovereignty,” he stated. The 16 hostages -- 13 policemen and three soldiers -- were transferred from territory held by the Qaida-linked al-Nusra on the mountainous border with Syria by Lebanon's Red Cross. Hours later, the freed men arrived in Beirut, dressed in their police and military uniforms, clean-shaven, and with their hair freshly cut.

Asiri Lauds Release of Servicemen, Hopes Lebanese Unite over Presidential Candidate
Naharnet/December 01/15/Saudi Arabian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asiri hailed on Tuesday the release of 16 servicemen who were held hostage by the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front, while hoping that this occasion will kick off efforts to resolve pending issues, most notably the presidential deadlock. He said in a statement: “Saudi Arabia hopes that Lebanese powers will be able to elect a president as soon as possible to put an end to the paralysis at state institutions, which has started to have negative effects on the country.”He added that he “supports any candidate who enjoys the backing on the Lebanese people, especially the Christians.”The kingdom is “closely following” regional developments, including those in Lebanon, “out of its fraternal keenness on the country and its people,” he continued. Asiri stressed however that Riyadh does not meddle in Lebanese affairs, saying that the “Lebanese people alone should take the decisions that suit them.” “The kingdom's role is therefore limited to encouraging all political powers to hold dialogue and come together to achieve Lebanon's higher national interest,” he remarked. Commenting on the release of the 16 servicemen, the ambassador congratulated the people, army, and security forces on their achievement, while praising the efforts of General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim. He hoped that today's accomplishment will be completed with the release of the remaining hostages, who are being held by the Islamic State extremist group. Sixteen servicemen held by the al-Nusra Front were released earlier on Tuesday through a Qatari-mediated deal that included a prisoner swap with the extremist group. They were released on the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal after 15 months in captivity. They were abducted in the wake of clashes between the army and the IS and al-Nusra Front in Arsal in August 2014. Four of the hostages were executed, while nine are still being held by the IS.

Report: Franjieh's Presidential Nomination Product of International Deal
Naharnet/December 01/15/The expected presidential nomination of Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh is a result of a “regional-international” deal aimed at preventing chaos from taking over Lebanon, reported al-Akhbar newspaper on Tuesday. A ministerial source told the daily that “there is a 75 percent chance that this deal will go ahead.”On Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun's stance on the nomination, it said: “We are faced with a fateful issue and there is a need to cater to Aoun's concerns, which Hizbullah should attend to.” “This is not the first complication to arise between the two sides and it is not impossible to resolve,” it remarked. There has been a flurry of political talks in the country that followed a Paris meeting between Franjieh and al-Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri. The meeting sparked intense speculation that the two leaders agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief for the presidency. Aoun, a presidential candidate himself, announced on Monday that it is up to the March 8 coalition to decide whether or not to nominate Franjieh for the presidency. “My stance on Franjieh's nomination will either complicate or facilitate the situation and I will declare it before the (presidential) elections take place,” he added. “Why should Suleiman Franjieh's nomination come from Saad Hariri?” he asked.

Report: Mustaqbal Informs Hizbullah, AMAL of its Nomination of Franjieh as President
Naharnet/December 01/15/The Mustaqbal Movement informed Hizbullah and the AMAL movement of its nomination of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president, reported As Safir newspaper on Tuesday. It said that the Mustaqbal Movement had informed the two sides of its decision during the dialogue session with Hizbullah that was held at Speaker Nabih Berri's Ain el-Tineh residence on Monday. The presidential elections were therefore the main topic of discussion at the meeting, which was summed up in its concluding statement that said: “Talks tackled the political developments, especially those related to the constitutional junctures.”The bilateral talks come amid calls for a so-called national political settlement which have been voiced by several parties, including Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and al-Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri. The country is witnessing a flurry of political talks between parties from both the March 14 and March 8 camps. The new momentum followed a meeting that was held in Paris between Hariri and Franjieh. The Franjieh-Hariri meeting has sparked intense speculation that they agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief as president.

Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Urge Maintaining Dialogue among Parties to Speed Up 'National Agreements'
Naharnet/December 01/15/Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal movement stressed Monday the need for maintaining the ongoing dialogue among various parties in the country in order to “reach national agreements as soon as possible.”“Discussions tackled the political developments, especially those related to the constitutional junctures,” said a joint statement issued by the two parties after their 21st dialogue session in Ain al-Tineh. The conferees underlined the importance of “maintaining the ongoing dialogues in order to speed up the possibility of reaching national agreements,” the terse statement added. The bilateral talks come amid calls for a so-called national political settlement which have been voiced by several parties, including Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. The country is witnessing a flurry of political talks between parties from both the March 14 and March 8 camps. The new momentum followed a meeting that was held in Paris between Hariri and Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh. Hariri has also met in Paris with Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat and Kataeb Party leader MP Sami Gemayel. The Franjieh-Hariri meeting has sparked intense speculation that they agreed to the nomination of the Marada chief as president.

Nasrallah-Velayati Meeting Highlights Regional Developments
Naharnet/December 01/15/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah held a meeting with Khamenei's adviser on international affairs Ali Akbar Velayati where talks highlighted the latest developments, al-Manar TV website said. Velayati was accompanied by deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdul Lahyan and the accompanying delegation in the presence of Iran's Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Fathali. Velayati had met on Monday with Prime Minister Tammam Salam at the Grand Serail where he stated that “hopes over the election of a president for the Lebanese republic have increased and are promising."He stressed that Lebanon's new president should enjoy the “consent” of all Lebanese parties. He was referring to the vacuum at the top state post that left the country without a president since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014. Velayati's visit comes amid the release of Lebanese soldiers who were held captive by al-Qaida linked al-Nusra Front since August 2014.Sixteen troops and policemen were released on Tuesday in a swap deal that included the release of Nusra inmates.

Hizbullah Urges 'Punishment' for 'Terrorists who Committed Crimes against Servicemen'
Naharnet/December 01/15/Hizbullah on Tuesday congratulated all Lebanese on the release of 16 troops and policemen who were held captive for over a year by the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front, while stressing that “those who committed crimes against the servicemen must receive full punishment.”“We hope the servicemen who are still in captivity will be freed as soon as possible … in order to turn the page on this unpleasant file for good,” the party said in a statement. Offering condolences to the families of the servicemen who were “martyred at the hands of these takfiri gangs, especially those who died in an ugly way in captivity,” Hizbullah hoped “the terrorists who committed crimes against them will receive full punishment.” The party also thanked the parties who exerted efforts in the negotiations, “topped by General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim.”The 16 hostages – 13 policemen and 3 soldiers -- were freed in a swap deal with al-Nusra that involved the release of more than a dozen Islamist prisoners, including the former wife of IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Saja al-Dulaimi. It also gave al-Nusra several trucks of humanitarian aid. The prisoner exchange comes 16 months after al-Nusra and IS briefly overran the town of Arsal on Lebanon's eastern border with Syria after clashes with Lebanese troops. The groups withdrew under a truce deal, but took 30 hostages with them. Four of the hostages were subsequently executed by the two groups, including Mohammed Hammiya, whose body was turned over to Lebanese authorities on Tuesday morning in the first stage of the deal.

FPM Voices Dismay after Footage Shows 'Lebanese Land Occupied by Terrorists'
Naharnet/December 01/15/The Free Patriotic Movement on Tuesday congratulated the freed Lebanese servicemen on their release from al-Nusra Front's captivity while expressing “extreme dismay” at the presence of “Lebanese land occupied by terrorists.”“The FPM applauds the fruitful efforts that were exerted in this regard, topped by the work of the Lebanese General Security,” it said in a statement. “As it stresses the importance of respecting national sovereignty in this operation and in any other one, the FPM expresses its extreme dismay at the footage broadcast by media outlets that confirmed the presence of Lebanese land occupied by the terrorists,” it added. “Some Syrian refugee encampments are contributing to this situation,” the FPM warned. The movement also hoped Lebanese authorities will seek to free the nine hostages who are being held by the Islamic State group and to “liberate this occupied Lebanese territory.”Earlier in the day, 13 Lebanese policemen and 3 soldiers were freed in a swap deal with al-Nusra that involved the release of more than a dozen Islamist prisoners, including the former wife of IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Saja al-Dulaimi. The freed hostages were transferred in Lebanese Red Cross vehicles from territory held by al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra Front on the mountainous border with Syria. Television footage showed the men, some sporting long beards and hair, boarding four Red Cross vehicles before being driven to an army checkpoint. Around them, armed and masked al-Nusra fighters waved the group's black flag and chanted slogans. The prisoner exchange comes 16 months after al-Nusra and IS briefly overran the town of Arsal on Lebanon's eastern border with Syria after clashes with Lebanese troops. The groups withdrew under a truce deal, but took 30 hostages with them. Four of the hostages were subsequently executed by the two groups, including Mohammed Hammiya, whose body was turned over to Lebanese authorities on Tuesday morning in the first stage of the deal.

Aoun rejects Franjieh as president, informs Hezbollah
How Hezbollah reacts to the looming rift may affect its relations with its Christian allies
Joseph A. Kechichian/The National/December 01/15
Beirut: A few days after Future Movement leader and former prime minister Saad Hariri and Hezbollah chairman Hassan Nasrallah appeared to indirectly anoint Sulaiman Franjieh as the most likely candidate for the presidency in Lebanon, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader, General Michel Aoun, informed his March 8 alliance allies that he rejected the Marada official for the post.
Aoun, who remained the official March 8 contender, apparently informed his Lebanese Forces counterpart, Samir Geagea, of his position, according to Al Nahar daily. Speaking to RT on Monday, Aoun announced that while it was up to the March 8 coalition to pick its candidate, he wanted to remind everyone that he was the nominee until further notice. This was a response to Franjieh, who met with the FPM’s newly anointed chief Jibran Bassil, who is the Foreign Minister and also Aoun’s son-in-law, when the prospector declared that while he “maintained his support for General Aoun,” he was ready “to take another stance” if Aoun aimed at blocking his bid.
In the event, and while Aoun said that he was not officially informed of any accord that may have been reached between Hariri and Franjieh, he nevertheless added: “Why should Sulaiman Franjieh’s nomination come from Saad Hariri?”
Asked about a possible settlement involving a March 8 president and a March 14 premier, Aoun described such a scenario as a “fair solution,” though he stressed that “each camp must choose its own president”.
The FPM cancelled its weekly parliamentary meeting on Tuesday without giving the reason though commentators speculated that high levels contacts were underway to defuse lingering tensions over Franjieh’s putative nomination.
In less than a week, the three leading Christian parties, the FPM, the Lebanese Forces and the Phalange, all insisted that the nomination could only go forward if Franjieh distanced himself from Syria. Observers were taken aback by Aoun’s vociferous rejection, however, since the Marada were part of the March 8 coalition and, presumably, allied with the General. By informing Hezbollah, which refrained from commenting publicly on Franjieh’s presidential bid so far, Aoun took a calculated risk that could in time highlight whether his current obduracy would alter his ties with the Shiite party.
Meanwhile, senior Future Movement officials seemed to be going through a crisis too, as several leading Sunni politicians refused to bow to Hariri’s diktats. Minister of Justice Ashraf Riffi and deputy Ahmad Fatfat, two prominent Sunni representatives, voiced their disappointment with Hariri for contemplating a deal with a pro-Syrian contender. It was unclear whether Future Movement ranks would remain intact or whether dissidents would distance themselves from the declared March 14 platform.
The Franjieh nomination was bound to dominate the 22nd national dialogue session although Aoun’s latest position may well derail prospects for a rapid resolution. Lebanon has been without a president since May 24, 2014, when Michel Sulaiman ended his six-year term. Whether Hariri’s initiative will break the 18-month-long deadlock was unclear.

In unexpected twist, Assad ally may be Lebanon's President
By Tom Perry and Laila Bassam/November 30/15
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0TJ26620151130
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon's political crisis has taken a dramatic turn with the possibility that a friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could become president in a power-sharing deal aimed at breathing life back into the paralyzed state.
The idea of Suleiman Franjieh, a childhood friend of Assad, becoming head of state has taken aback many Lebanese, not least because of who tabled it: Saad al-Hariri, a Sunni politician who leads an alliance forged from opposition to Syrian influence in Lebanon. He would become prime minister under the deal.
It is no less startling because of the backing it would require from Saudi Arabia and Iran, rival states that wield decisive influence over Lebanon's competing factions and which are in conflict elsewhere in the region, including in Syria.
As the war escalates in Syria, with Iran and Saudi Arabia increasing their support for Assad and his enemies, a new deal for Lebanon seems unlikely to signal any broader understanding to settle regional conflicts.
But it would point to a desire to preserve a minimal degree of stability in Lebanon. While badly affected by the Syrian war that has triggered militant attacks, driven a million refugees over the border, and fueled a political crisis, Lebanon has avoided the kind of civil strife some had feared.
Yet the country has been without a president for 18 months and a unity government led by Prime Minister Tammam Salam is barely functioning. The Hariri proposal is the most serious effort yet to resolve that political stalemate.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Iran's supreme leader who was on a visit to Beirut on Monday said after meeting Salam that hopes for the election of a president had increased.
"We hope to witness in the immediate future the selection and election of a president of the republic," a statement from Salam's office quoted Velayati as saying.
But the appointment of Franjieh faces big challenges including resistance from politicians who campaigned against Syrian influence in Lebanon, and winning over other leaders who also covet the post reserved for a Maronite Christian, notably Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea.
If it fails, analysts believe the chances of a settlement will be even more remote, meaning no imminent end to a crisis of government that has in recent months left trash to pile up in the streets and the army without salaries.
CHRISTIAN RIVALRIES
Though the proposal has not been made public by Hariri, it has been reported in Lebanon and confirmed by political sources. Franjieh has said the proposal for him to become president is serious, but not official. The deal is expected to include an agreement on arrangements for new parliamentary elections.
Any power-sharing deal needs to reconcile Lebanon's two main camps: the March 8 alliance dominated by the Iranian-backed Shi'ite group Hezbollah, and the Hariri-led March 14 alliance.
The toughest part is winning over other Christians on both sides. Geagea and Aoun are the official candidates of the rival alliances, and a Franjieh presidency risks exacerbating historic rivalries among the Christians.
Hezbollah has repeatedly stated its support for the candidacy of Aoun, 80, its ally since 2006 and head of the biggest Christian bloc in parliament. Yet Franjieh, whose ties to the group are much older, may be a preferable choice for the group as Hezbollah wages war in Syria in support of Assad.
By backing Franjieh, Hariri meanwhile risks fracturing the March 14 alliance which was forged a decade ago out of opposition to Syria in the wake of the assassination of his father, Rafik al-Hariri.
"The ones with a positive view of this settlement argue that a Franjieh presidency will reassure March 8 and Hezbollah, while the presence of Hariri in the palace as prime minister will reassure the other camp. This is what is being marketed behind the scenes," said Nabil Boumonsef, a political commentator.
"There has already been great damage, particularly in the March 14 camp - more than in March 8 - because Franjieh is the clearest ally of the Syrian regime and the Assad family in Lebanon," Boumonsef said. Hezbollah was meanwhile like "a father being asked to choose between two sons", he added.
HUNTING WITH BASIL AL-ASSAD
Franjieh's ties to the Assad family date to his childhood when his grandfather, the late President Suleiman Franjieh, took him on trips to Damascus to visit his friend, the late President Hafez al-Assad. Franjieh used to hunt with Bashar al-Assad's older brother, Basil, who died in a 1994 car crash.
He was orphaned in 1978 when a Christian militia attacked his family home in northern Lebanon, killing his father, mother and sister. Geagea has been accused of responsibility for that civil war time attack, though he has denied participating.
Franjieh, 50, featured prominently in the period of Syrian domination of Lebanon that followed the 1975-90 war, serving as a government minister several times. That era ended with the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005 following an international outcry at the Rafik al-Hariri assassination.
Franjieh was serving as interior minister at the time.
Hariri, 45, assumed the mantle of Lebanon's most influential Sunni politician after his father's death. He left Lebanon in 2011 after his government was toppled by the March 8 coalition. He has made only two, short trips to Lebanon since then.
Boutros Harb, a March 14 politician with presidential ambitions, said he had no personal problem with Franjieh. "But will he bring Bashar al-Assad with him to Baabda Palace, or will he be president for all Lebanese?" he asked on Twitter.
Baabda is the location of the presidential palace.
Speaking last week, a senior figure in Hariri's Future Movement, his cousin Ahmad al-Hariri, said the only choice for Lebanese was a "brave settlement" to end the repercussions of political "obstruction" which he said had turned into a time bomb, the Hariri-owned al-Mustaqbal newspaper reported.
Franjieh's candidacy would certainly be welcomed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a powerful Hezbollah ally who heads the Shi'ite Amal Movement and whose fractious relationship with Aoun is no secret.
Franjieh was seeking to win the support of other Maronite politicians, a senior March 8 politician said. "Saad al-Hariri has turned everything upside down by announcing his support for the candidate closest to President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah, and has thrown the ball into the others' court."
Franjieh held a "friendly meeting" with Aoun's son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, on Sunday night, a statement from Franjieh's Marada party said.
Franjieh told Bassil he still supported Aoun's candidacy "if there was a real desire to agree on General Aoun". "But if (Aoun's) nomination continues simply to obstruct Franjieh's nomination, this is another matter."(Writing by Tom Perry; editing by Janet McBride)

Blast Hits Istanbul Metro, Six Injured
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/An explosion of unknown origin hit the Istanbul metro on Tuesday, causing injuries and bringing the transport system in Turkey's largest city to a halt, reports and officials said. The huge blast caused panic close to the metro station in the Bayrampasa district of Istanbul and injured at least six people, NTV television said. NTV said it may have been caused by a bomb while other reports said the cause could be linked to an electrical transformer. "The cause of the explosion is not clear. We are investigating all possibilities," Istanbul governor Vasip Sahin was quoted as saying by the state-run Anatolia news agency. Large numbers of ambulances were dispatched to the scene, as commuters were helped to safety, reports said. "Metro services have been halted after a sound similar to an explosion was heard, its cause remains unknown," the Istanbul municipality said in a statement. Turkey is currently on alert for attacks after 103 people were killed on October 10 when two suicide bombers ripped through a crowd of peace activists in the capital Ankara, the worst attack in modern Turkey's history.

Operation Begins to Resettle 25,000 Syrians in Canada
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/An operation to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees in Canada has begun, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said Tuesday, with 10,000 people due to depart for their new home by the end of the year. Processing, including security checks, began at a military base in Jordan's capital Amman on Sunday, said Craig Murphy, who briefed journalists in Geneva by phone. New Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau campaigned on the plan to resettle 25,000 people displaced by the four-year civil war in Syria, but the idea has come under increasing political fire following the attacks in Paris. There is no evidence that a Syrian refugee was among the jihadists who attacked multiple Paris nightspots on November 13, but Trudeau has faced growing calls to rethink the plan over the last two weeks. Trudeau has vowed to press ahead, and a large contingent of Canadian immigration officers was on the ground in Jordan at the weekend, processing more than 200 people within the first 48 hours, Murphy said. The first flights bringing the displaced to Canada are expected to leave Jordan by the middle of the month, he added. The remaining 15,000 people are scheduled to fly to Canada early next year, the IOM said. Murphy said candidates are being asked about past military service in Syria, but that a military background is not a disqualifier for resettlement. Canadian media have widely reported that, following the Paris attacks, Canada had decided not accept any single men for resettlement. Murphy said he was "not privy" to any such policy, but noted that through the early days of processing it was clear Canadian officials were "targeting nuclear families and large families."IOM spokesman Leonard Doyle said the speed at which Canada was approving candidates was "interesting", as the plan to resettle 120,000 refugees within European Union remains largely stalled. Last month, the U.N. said that less than 200 people had been resettled under the EU plan, which was agreed on September 22. Some EU leaders have called for changes to the bloc's deal on Syrian refugees, citing security concerns.

Syria Deal for Rebels to Leave Last Homs District
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15A deal has been reached for the evacuation of Syrian opposition fighters from the last district under their control in the central city of Homs, the provincial governor told AFP Tuesday. "We will implement the agreed deal in stages, with 200-300 armed men leaving in the first stage... starting on Saturday," Talal Barazi said.

Syria's Assad Accuses France of 'Supporting Terrorism'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/Syrian President Bashar Assad accused France of "supporting terrorism" and said he saw Prague as a possible venue for signing any future peace deal to end his country's four-year civil war, in comments broadcast Monday on Czech TV. In an interview due to be aired in full on Tuesday, the Syrian strongman was asked whether he could see a peace deal being signed in Prague, as Czech President Milos Zeman had suggested in September. "Naturally, if you ask Syrians they will tell you they don't want a peace conference in France, for example, because France supports terrorism and war, not peace," he said on the CT public station. "And as you mention Prague, it would be generally accepted because of the balanced position of your country." As the last diplomatic outpost of the West in Syria, the Czech embassy has become a hub for confidential U.S. and EU communication with the Damascus regime amid moves aimed at ending the four-year conflict. France has been adamant in its opposition to Assad, describing him as a "butcher" of his own people and on Monday Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said working with the Syrian army to fight the Islamic State group was not on the cards until he was removed. On a trip to Washington last week, French President Francois Hollande and reiterated his determination to see Assad step down in order to give Syria a chance for peace, saying "it should be as soon as possible.""He has been the problem -- he cannot be the solution," Hollande said. Syria's conflict began as a peaceful pro-democracy revolt in 2011 that later morphed into a multi-front civil war after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal crackdown against dissent.

UK Parliament to Vote Wednesday on Joining Syria Air Strikes
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/Britain's parliament is to hold a vote Wednesday on joining air strikes against Islamic State (IS) group targets in Syria, Prime Minister David Cameron said Monday. "I can announce that I will be recommending to Cabinet tomorrow that we hold a debate and a vote in the House of Commons to extend the air strikes," Cameron said. "We will make sure that we have a very long and full debate on Wednesday." The prime minister added that Britain wanted to "answer the call from our allies and work with them because ISIL (another acronym for IS) is a threat to our country and this is the right thing to do."His announcement came a few hours after the main opposition Labor party decided to let its MPs vote with their individual consciences rather than trying to force them to oppose military action. This means that Cameron is now expected to get the clear majority he wanted before calling a vote in parliament on the issue.

Obama Calls on Turkey, Russia to Focus on 'Common Enemy' IS
Naharnet/December 01/15/U.S. President Barack Obama called on Russia and Turkey to move beyond a furious row over the downing of a fighter jet and focus on the Islamic State jihadist group, after meeting his Turkish counterpart in Paris on Tuesday. Relations between Moscow and Ankara have plummeted in the past week after Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet along the Syrian border. Russia has announced economic sanctions and advised its citizens not to visit Turkey. "I want to be very clear: Turkey is a NATO ally. The U.S. supports Turkish rights to defend itself and its airspace and its territory," Obama told reporters after meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "We all have a common enemy and that is ISIL and I want to make sure we focus on that threat," Obama said, using an alternative name for the Islamic State group. Erdogan said he was keen to move past the dispute. "We are always willing to resort to the diplomatic language (...) we want to avoid the tensions," he said. The United States and its allies are concerned the Turkey-Russia spat could further complicate efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Syria, where Russia and Turkey support opposing sides. Obama met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday on the sidelines of the climate summit in Paris. "President Obama expressed his regret for the recent loss of a Russian pilot and crew member," a White House official said after their closed-door meeting. Hours earlier, Turkey had sent back to Russia the body of a pilot killed when his plane was shot down by the Turkish air force on November 24 for allegedly violating its air space on the Syrian border, reports said. Putin accused Ankara of seeking to protect IS oil exports -- an important source of funds for the jihadist group. "We have every reason to think that the decision to shoot down our plane was dictated by the desire to protect the oil supply lines to Turkish territory, right to the ports where it is loaded onto tankers," Putin said during a news conference on the fringes of the climate talks in Paris. One of the Russian pilots aboard the downed plane was shot dead in Syria after parachuting from the burning aircraft, while the second was found safe and sound. One Russian soldier was killed in a rescue operation.

Jewish Extremist Sentenced to 3 Years for Jerusalem School Arson
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/A Jewish extremist convicted of arson over the burning of an Arabic-Hebrew bilingual school seen as a rare symbol of coexistence in Jerusalem was sentenced to three years in prison Tuesday, the court said. Yitzhak Gabai, 23, was found guilty in the November 2014 attack that saw a first-grade classroom badly damaged and slogans in Hebrew reading "Death to Arabs" and "There's no coexistence with cancer" scrawled on the walls.The attack at the Hand-in-Hand school sparked a wave of condemnation and took place amid months of rising tensions and unrest in Jerusalem. Gabai's accomplices, brothers Nahman and Shlomo Twitto, 19 and 21, have already been sentenced to two and two and a half years in prison. The Shin Bet internal security agency has said the three were members of Lehava, an extremist group which fights against intermarriage. Lehava activists follow the teachings of the late Meir Kahane, a virulently anti-Arab rabbi whose Kach party was banned in Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials condemned the attack at the school, which is on the Green Line separating west Jerusalem from the annexed eastern sector and has 624 pupils. Prosecutors recommended a sentence of between four and seven years for Gabai and said they planned to appeal, calling the jail term too light. He was given two years for arson, 10 months for inciting violence on Facebook and two months for weapons possession. The sentencing comes amid another wave of violence that began in October, including Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks.

Saudi Death Row Cleric in 'High Spirits'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/Saudi death row Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr is in high spirits despite reports he is at risk of imminent execution, his brother said on Monday after visiting the sheikh. "He's good, very well, high spirits. His health is very good and he is ready for anything, even for death," Jaffar al-Nimr told Agence France Presse. The brother spoke after he and several other family members, including Nimr's mother, spent about one hour with him at Al-Hair prison near Riyadh. Nimr was a driving force behind protests that erupted in 2011 in eastern Saudi Arabia, where most of the Shiite minority live. The protests developed into a call for equality in the Sunni-ruled kingdom, where many Shiites have complained of marginalisation. Amnesty International said on Thursday that he was among six Shiite activists at imminent risk of execution who were "clearly convicted in unfair trials". The London-based human rights group said the six were among a total of 50 people who could soon be put to death in a single day. Media "close to the Saudi Arabian authorities" had reported on the execution plans, Amnesty said. Nimr is not concerned by those stories, his brother said, accusing the interior ministry of sometimes issuing reports in order to gauge public reaction. But Nimr's family are still "very worried," he said. Among the other activists who Amnesty said are at risk of imminent execution is Nimr al-Nimr's nephew Ali al-Nimr, who was 17 when he was arrested following the protests for reform. Ali al-Nimr is also detained at Al-Hair prison, and his father is to visit him in three weeks, Jaffar al-Nimr said.

Qaida Warns Saudi against Executing Jihadists
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/Al-Qaida warned Saudi authorities on Tuesday against executing jihadists on death row in the kingdom following reports that dozens of executions are imminent. "We have heard of executions that the government of Al-Saud intends to implement against mujahedeen brothers held captive. We vow to sacrifice our own blood to save theirs," Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula said in a statement posted online. "Their blood will not dry up before the blood of Al-Saud soldiers is shed," warned the statement. "We shall not rest until we slit the throats of Al-Saud rulers." Amnesty International last week cited Saudi newspapers as reporting that up to 55 people, including al-Qaida militants, were to be executed "in the next few days."AQAP was formed in 2009 through the merger of the jihadist network's Saudi and Yemeni branches, as militants fled the kingdom for its lawless neighbor following a crackdown by Saudi authorities. Al-Qaida waged a campaign of shooting and bombings against foreigners and security personnel in Saudi Arabia between 2003 and 2006. Washington considers AQAP its most dangerous affiliate and has carried out a long-running drone war against its leaders in Yemen.

Yemen Shelling Kills another Saudi Border Guard
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/Shelling from Yemen has killed another Saudi border guard, the interior ministry said, the eighth death from Yemeni firing into the kingdom in just three days. The latest bombardment hit security posts in Saudi Arabia's Jazan district at about midday on Monday, the ministry said. Cross-border shelling from Yemen has claimed the lives of five members of the security forces and three civilians in the kingdom since Saturday. The border attacks could be in retaliation for a coalition air strike on Sunday that targeted "a meeting of leaders" from the Shiite Huthi rebels in their stronghold of Saada, said Brigadier General Ahmed al-Assiri, spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition which began a military intervention against the rebels and their allies in March. "I think yesterday it was related to what happened, in Yemen," Assiri told AFP. "We targeted a headquarters where they were meeting."He could not confirm reports that the strike killed the brother of rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Huthi. The latest deaths bring to more than 80 the number of people killed in the Saudi border zone since coalition operations began. Most of the casualties have been soldiers. In late October, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir indicated that coalition military operations in Yemen appeared to be nearing an end. The kingdom voiced optimism that United Nations-led peace talks would begin, after previous attempts at negotiations stalled. In early November the U.N.'s special envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, told Agence France Presse he was "very optimistic" negotiations would start by the middle of that month. But fighting has continued inside Yemen, as well as in the border zone, with the coalition backing Yemeni anti-rebel forces in support of President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi. The United Nations says more than 5,700 people have been killed in Yemen since March, nearly half of them civilians.

Two Jordan Police Killed in Shooting near Syria Border
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/Two Jordanian policemen have died after assailants opened fire on their vehicle while it was on patrol overnight near the Syrian border, authorities said Tuesday. It was not immediately clear who was behind the attack, which took place in Jordan's northern Irbid governorate bordering war-torn Syria. The assailants opened fire on the police car and it overturned after the driver lost control, a statement from Jordan's general security department said. A police captain and a corporal, who was driving the vehicle, were rushed to hospital with serious injuries and later died, it said. Jordan is part of a US-led coalition battling Islamic State group jihadists who control swathes of Syria and Iraq. The kingdom has bolstered surveillance of its border with Syria since the conflict started there in March 2011 and has arrested dozens of people trying to infiltrate the frontier. Would-be militants trying to join armed groups in Syria and smugglers frequently attempt to cross the border.

Clinton Vows No U.S. Troops in Syria, Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/U.S. Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton said Monday that putting American combat troops on the ground in Syria or Iraq to fight the Islamic State group was a "non-starter.""Well, at this point I cannot conceive of any circumstances where I would agree to do that because I think the best way to defeat ISIS is, as I've said, from the air which we lead, on the ground, which we enable, empower, train, equip and in cyberspace where, don't forget, they are a formidable adversary online," Clinton said. She was speaking to "CBS This Morning" in excerpts released in advance of the full interview airing early Tuesday. President Barack Obama last month authorized no more than 50 special operations forces to deploy to northern Syria in a non-combatant, advisory role to help coordinate local ground troops and anti-IS coalition efforts. It is unclear whether the forces have already arrived in Syria. "We don't know yet how many Special Forces might be needed, how many trainers and surveillance and enablers might be needed, but in terms of thousands of combat troops like some on the Republican side are recommending, I think that should be a non-starter," Clinton said. "I agree with the president's point that we're not putting American combat troops back into Syria or Iraq. We are not going to do that."

Two Attempted Stabbings near Israeli Settlements, Attackers Shot
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/Two Palestinians attempted to stab an Israeli soldier and a pedestrian in separate attacks near Jewish settlements in the West Bank on Tuesday, authorities said, but both attackers were shot dead.
The incidents came a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas shared a rare handshake at a global climate conference in Paris, but no substantial talks were reported. Tuesday's first incident occurred near the Gush Etzion bloc of settlements south of Jerusalem, the site of a series of recent attacks. A Palestinian brandishing a knife attempted to stab a pedestrian at a junction near the settlement bloc and was shot dead by an Israeli soldier, police and the army said. The Palestinian health ministry identified the dead Palestinian as 16-year-old Mamoon Raed Muhammed al-Khateeb. Later in the day, in the northern West Bank, a young Palestinian woman who sought to stab a soldier near the Israeli settlement of Einav was shot and killed by the serviceman, the army said. Palestinian police sources identified her as 19-year-old Maram Hassouna, a university student in Nablus who had previously served two years in prison for another attempted knife attack. Violence since October 1 has left 103 dead on the Palestinian side, including an Arab Israeli, as well as 17 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean. The stabbings, shootings and car rammings have mainly been carried out by "lone wolf" attackers who have defied calls for peaceful resistance to Israel's occupation. Many of them have been young people, including teenagers, reflecting anger and lost hope over Israel's occupation, the Palestinians' fractured leadership and the complete lack of progress in peace efforts, analysts say. The international community has repeatedly called for moves to reduce tensions but Netanyahu has vowed to step up punitive measures and has accused Palestinian leaders of inciting violence. The Palestine Liberation Organization’s secretary general, Saeb Erekat, has said that it could soon move forward on changing longstanding links with Israel, including security coordination, if Netanyahu's government does not take steps toward peace. There has been speculation that such moves could lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, the governing administration set up in the 1990s under the landmark Oslo accords. During a visit to Paris on Monday for a global climate summit, Netanyahu told Israeli reporters that he did not want to see the collapse of the Palestinian Authority as it could further empower Palestinian hardliners, such as Islamist movement Hamas.
The Palestinian Authority is dominated by Abbas's Fatah party. "The fact that there's now a bad alternative (the PA) doesn't mean that we won't get a worse alternative," Israeli daily Haaretz quoted Netanyahu as saying. "But there has to be a change in the PA leadership's behavior."Netanyahu and Abbas shook hands at the summit in Paris, but no substantial talks were reported and both sides played down the importance of the brief encounter. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited last week for separate talks with Netanyahu and Abbas, but left without achieving a breakthrough. After returning to the United States, Kerry said the conflict was at a "pivotal point" and expressed concern over "the potential for the situation to spin out of control."Tuesday's violence also came a day after a Jerusalem court found two Israelis guilty of the burning alive of a Palestinian teen in the run-up to last year's Gaza war, but held off on convicting the alleged ringleader. The third defendant, a 31-year-old Israeli settler, was found to have committed the crime, but the court delayed convicting him after his lawyers submitted a report in recent days arguing his mental state meant he was not responsible for his actions. The report will now have to be evaluated, with a new hearing set for December 20. Palestinians and the victim's family harshly criticized the delay. Mohammed Abu Khdeir, 16, was abducted and killed in July 2014, weeks after the kidnap and murder of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank.

Suicide Bombing against Shiite Pilgrims in Baghdad Kills 9
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 01/15/A suicide bomber targeted Shiite Muslims taking part in an annual pilgrimage in Baghdad on Monday, killing nine people and wounding another 21, Iraqi security officials said. The attack targeted a checkpoint along a route used by Shiite pilgrims in the northern Baghdad neighborhood of al-Shaab. Four soldiers who were guarding the route were among the dead. It was the first attack on Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad during the lead-up to the religious commemoration known as Arbaeen, when Shiite faithful converge on the holy city of Karbala. The annual commemoration is often marked by violence despite tight security measures to protect the pilgrims, many of whom travel to Karbala on foot. Arbaeen marks the passing of 40 days after the anniversary of the seventh century martyrdom of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad and a central figure in Shiite Islam. Iraqi officials say they expect the number of pilgrims this year to top last year's record of more than 17 million. Earlier Monday, two roadside bombs in commercial districts of Baghdad killed five people and wounded 16, according to the Iraqi security officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to release the information. No one claimed Monday's attacks, but the Islamic State group has repeatedly targeted the country's Shiite majority, viewing them as apostates deserving of death. The extremist group swept across Iraq in 2014, capturing a third of the country and declaring it part of a self-styled Islamic caliphate. On Monday, Iraq's military told civilians to leave the IS-held city of Ramadi, 115 kilometers (70 miles) west of Baghdad, indicating that an operation could soon be underway to retake the city. IS captured Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, in May. The military statement, broadcast on Iraqi state TV, said families should leave the city from the south, without providing further details. The U.S.-led coalition carried out seven airstrikes near Ramadi on Saturday, targeting IS fighters, positions and weapons caches.

How one Egyptian beauty queen lost her citizenship
Rami Galal/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
CAIRO — Egyptian Prime Minister Sherif Ismail issued on Nov. 10 a decision to revoke citizenship from Naglaa Ahmad Abdel Ati Suleiman because she also held citizenship from Israel without ever having obtained the required permission. Egyptian law requires that any national who wishes to become a dual citizen first obtain approval from the Interior Ministry.Suleiman, aka Nana, hails from the town of El Bagour in the Monufia governorate. Her father is Egyptian, while her mother is a Palestinian citizen of Israel. According to Egyptian birth records, Suleiman, 23, was born in 1992 and left Egypt when she was 5 years old for Israel with her mother and father. The family settled in Nazareth, where her father worked as an accounting manager at a rebar plant owned by a Palestinian businessman. She received an Israeli degree in biotechnology, which is considered a pre-med degree, and she graduated with distinction.
Suleiman won the title of Arab Miss Israel in 2009, and she announced after winning that her participation was “a national action aiming at spreading peace.” She has said that she refused to represent Israel in the Miss World pageant because she is proud of her Egyptian citizenship. Suleiman also noted that all Egyptian universities turned her down because she has a high school degree from Israel and holds Israeli citizenship, although she also has an Egyptian national ID card. The decision to strip Suleiman of her citizenship sparked contradictory reactions. Some considered it unjust to take such action against an Egyptian girl just because her mother is a Palestinian citizen of Israel who holds Israeli citizenship. Others believed the decision aims to protect national security and ensure that it is not breached by Israelis.
Saad Eddine Ibrahim, professor of sociology at the American University in Cairo and director of the Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies, told Al-Monitor that revoking citizenship is a serious issue that should only be applied in exceptional cases. Therefore, according to him, giving the prime minister the authority to revoke citizenship might result in an abuse of power. Ibrahim expressed his belief that such power must be in the hands of the parliament, and the members of parliament must have all documents and details that allow them to make such a decision after voting on it. He added that this would decrease the possibility of making a wrong judgment and being unjust to certain citizens by depriving them of their most valuable asset — their citizenship.
Ibrahim stressed that there is a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, and Egyptian law allows for holding dual citizenship. For instance, an individual can have both the Egyptian and American passports or the Egyptian and French passports. Thus, in his view, it is only fair to treat the Israeli citizenship just like all others, especially for the Palestinian citizens of Israel whose lands were occupied. Their only option was to flee and leave their properties to Israelis or stay and hold the Israeli nationality, in the hope that their lands might be liberated someday, according to Ibrahim.
Ibrahim said, “If Suleiman were to [appeal this decision] before the administrative judiciary, the Ibn Khaldun Center would support her because she has not committed any crime against the nation and she is proud of her Egyptian citizenship.”
Ahmed Mekki, minister of justice and former deputy head of the Court of Cassation, said, “Article 10 of the Egyptian Nationality Law states that an Egyptian may not acquire a foreign nationality except after obtaining permission to be issued by decree of the minister of interior. Otherwise, he shall continue to be regarded, in all cases, as Egyptian from all points of view, unless the Cabinet decides to strip him of the nationality according to the provisions of Article 16 of the present law, which tackles the cases of stripping a person of their Egyptian nationality. Article 16 clearly noted in its 10th clause that an Egyptian is stripped of his Egyptian nationality if he has been qualified as a Zionist at any time.”
Mekki told Al-Monitor that the administrative judiciary monitors any decision taken by the executive authority. Moreover, he noted that the decision to revoke nationality is always questionable because the authority might misuse its power as per the individual political inclinations of opponents. Forms of punishment are plenty, but the worst — in his view — is depriving people of their citizenship. He said that there have been calls to strip some opposition figures of Egyptian citizenship, even though it’s the only nationality they hold.
Mekki noted that denying the Palestinian citizens of Israel and all Palestinians the right to hold dual Egyptian citizenship is important to protect the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people’s presence in the occupied territories.
Samir Ghattas, an expert on Palestinian affairs and head of the Middle East Forum for Strategic Studies, an Egyptian think tank, told Al-Monitor, “When it comes to Egypt’s national security, we cannot talk about human rights in general. The cases in which people have their citizenship revoked are individual cases that go against the basics of Egypt’s national security. The Egyptian authorities cannot allow people holding Israeli citizenship to walk around freely in Egyptian administrative centers as Egyptian citizens. If the subject in question, hence [Suleiman], is proud to be Egyptian, she should give up her Israeli nationality, and the administrative judiciary will be fair then.”
Strategic expert in national security affairs Gen. Talaat Musallam told Al-Monitor that the decision was in the interest of the country, considering that citizenship is a legal and political link between the individual and the state, and it obliges the individual to be loyal to the state and the state to protect the individual.
He added that the Cabinet is authorized to revoke citizenship, because it includes all ministers in the executive authority. Therefore, according to him, it understands best the notion of national security from all aspects, as per the different portfolios of ministers participating in making the decision.
Musallam added that citizens who hold Israeli citizenship are bound to have some attachment to it and could face pressure from Israeli parties to work with them against their other nationality.
**Rami Galal is a contributor for Al-Monitor’s Egypt Pulse and works as an investigative reporter for the Rosa el-Youssef website.

The tumbling turban: Who is behind attacks on Reformists in Iran?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
As Iran’s disparate political entities begin to lobby and organize for the 2016 parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, attacks on Reformist gatherings portend a challenging path for a decimated group that hopes to return to power.
A significant factor in the election of moderate President Hassan Rouhani in 2013 was the overwhelming support he received from prominent Reformist figures. While many of them supported Rouhani in hopes of ending the policies of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — by denying hard-line Saeed Jalili the presidency — others hoped to enter political office themselves, taking advantage of Rouhani’s election promise of a more open political climate. However, attacks on Reformist gatherings by protesters appear to be dashing these hopes.
The most recent attack occurred Nov. 29 at a university in Yasuj. Azar Mansouri, a former adviser to President Mohammad Khatami and a Reformist political activist with the Participation Front, was scheduled to speak. According to organizers, they had received permission from both the university and the city to hold the event, but conservative groups from other universities filled the auditorium early, preventing others from entering. When Mansouri entered, the conservative groups began chanting “Death to seditionists,” a term used against Reformist organizers who supported Mir Hossein Mousavi in the highly contested 2009 presidential elections. “The sedition” is the term critics use to refer to the Green Movement.
One organizer of the event described the disruption as “being attacked from three sides.” Unable to deliver her speech, Mansouri left. Three people were injured when one of the protesters pulled a knife on the group accompanying Mansouri.
On Nov. 21, a scheduled speech by former Reformist parliamentarian Mostafa Kavakebian was canceled after about 100 people calling themselves Hezbollah Nation protested. The protesters had warned of a repeat of the “Shiraz event,” referring to a March incident in which outspoken Iranian member of parliament Ali Motahari was physically attacked by plainclothesmen in Shiraz. Motahari has been a vocal advocate of ending the house arrests of 2009 presidential candidates and Green Movement leaders Mehdi Karroubi, Mousavi and Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard.
Another attack on the Reformist gatherings occurred Nov. 19, when Hojat al-Islam Abdolvahed Mousavi Lari, Khatami’s former interior minister, was physically attacked in the city of Varamin. As he entered an auditorium to give a speech, conservative groups began chanting slogans and some physically confronted him, knocking the cleric’s turban off his head. According to reports, three people were injured in the attack and one person is still hospitalized.
While local authorities have promised to investigate the events, these types of attacks by protesters are rarely prosecuted.
The attacks also signal that Reformists with links to the Khatami administration haven't yet created the right climate for their political comebacks.
Moderate and other Reformist politicians who hope to run the parliamentary elections and break parliament's conservative dominance must also pass through the hard-line Guardian Council, a 12-member body that reviews candidates and laws for approval.

Islamic State extends its tentacles into Yemen
Ashraf al-Falahi/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
ADEN, Yemen — Yemen’s civil war is allowing the Islamic State (IS) to expand its presence there. Amid the spread of extremism engendered by the conflict between the Houthis and the central government, IS is becoming the main adversary for both the Houthis and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
IS is strengthening its footprint in the northern, Houthi-controlled governorates and is making progress in the south, although al-Qaeda remains the dominant force there.
Attacks by armed pro-IS groups rose in October, after they pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in the capital, Sanaa, and other cities in the country’s south and southeast. As a result, their activities gained an added dimension, as they attempted to impose themselves as effective instigators of violence on the Yemeni scene. These groups attacked government troops as well as those they describe as Shiite, Iran-backed Houthis.
IS executed its largest two operations in Yemen in October: when it claimed responsibility for a car bomb attack against the residence of the president and members of the Yemeni Cabinet at the al-Qasr Hotel in Aden, and when it targeted a camp for Emirati troops, part of the Saudi-led Arab coalition.
IS launched its efforts in Yemen back in March, when the organization bombed two Shiite Houthi mosques in Sanaa, leading to the death of Houthi command figures and religious leaders, most notably Imam al-Murtada bin Zaid al-Mahtouri and Mohammad Abdelmalek al-Shami.
In April, IS beheaded four Yemeni soldiers and executed 11 others by firing squad in the southern governorate of Shabwah. By releasing a video of the carnage, IS clearly demonstrated the strategy of savagery espoused in its strongholds and the adoption of the same methodology and media strategy by its branches in Yemen.
The organization’s operations reached their peak in June, when IS conducted seven operations against what it described as “Shiite Houthi places of worship” in Sanaa. Those attacks killed and wounded about 100 people, mostly Houthi supporters.
On June 17, the IS branch in Yemen also claimed responsibility for four attacks in Sanaa targeting Houthi religious sites and buildings. The attacks killed 31 and wounded a number of others. On June 20, a booby-trapped car exploded next to the Houthi Qubbat al-Mahdi mosque in Old Sanaa, killing and wounding a number of people.
About the same time, IS took responsibility for a car bomb in a Houthi-controlled security quadrant in Sanaa, which killed and wounded a number of Houthis. On June 29, an attack by IS on the houses of two Houthi leaders in Sanaa left at least 28 dead or wounded, including eight women.
In Aden, IS executed a number of Houthi snipers July 18.
The growing level of violence is strengthening IS and putting it on a direct collision course to replace AQAP as flag bearer for the Holy War against their enemies. Both groups seek to take advantage of political and sectarian instability. As a result, the influence — even the mere existence — of the Ayman al-Zawahri-led al-Qaeda is threatened.
IS’ combat tactics rely on taking control of a specific geographic region, as was the case in Iraq and Syria, as a prelude to launching attacks against other areas — a feat it has failed to accomplish so far in Yemen. Yet, it succeeded in establishing training camps for its combatants in mountainous regions of southern Yemen. IS revealed that feat in a November statement detailing how its troops, trained in the southern city of Lahej, attacked a government military camp in Hadramaut.
In parallel, disputes erupted between the two organizations following the assassination of a number of high-ranking AQAP leaders in drone attacks. Most prominent among those killed was the organization’s emir in the Arabian Peninsula, Abu Basir Nasser al-Wuhayshi, killed June 12. His death led to both groups trading Twitter-based accusations of treason and misrepresentation of the jihadi cause. These disputes threaten to grow into direct clashes, as occurred in Syria.
However, to date, no direct, physical clashes have been reported between al-Qaeda and IS in Yemen. The dispute has remained confined to verbal barbs and the avoidance of armed confrontations. Yet, that could change dramatically due to the increased level of political and military competition between the two, particularly as both share animosity toward the Houthis and Shiites in general.
Furthermore, there are indications that a number of AQAP members have defected to IS. Al-Qaeda’s late leadership figure in Yemen, Maamoun Hatem, was reputed to be one of the most eager to pledge allegiance to Baghdadi. When Hatem was killed May 11 in an American drone attack, some IS members tweeted eulogies — a phenomenon that was repeated in July when al-Qaeda singer/chanter Abu Hajar al-Hadrami was killed in a drone attack in Mukalla in July.
The number of IS combatants is kept secret, as are their locations or hideouts — particularly in light of them successfully infiltrating the security measures of coalition and government forces in Aden, as well as the strict security measures adopted by the Houthis in Sanaa.
These successes are the result of IS enjoying some popular support in predominantly Sunni areas (such as Shabwah, Al-Bayda, Lahej and Taiz), and especially in areas that have suffered the atrocities of the Houthis and their allies, who perpetrated human rights violations against unarmed civilians. The IS-affiliated factions thus are welcomed as protectors from such transgressions.
This all could lead to disaster for Yemen.
In the midst of the rapid changes taking place in Yemen, the emergence of IS’ branch there has caused widespread controversy. Yet, accusations that supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime are backing the IS expansion, seeking to shuffle the cards on the Yemeni scene, seem to be nothing more than unfounded political mudslinging. Nabeel al-Bakeiri, a Yemeni researcher of Islamic factions, told Al-Monitor that the expansion of IS is more media propaganda than fact. He said there are numerous examples, particularly that “none of al-Qaeda’s prominent leaders had pledged allegiance to Baghdadi.”
The chances of armed clashes between al-Qaeda and IS in Yemen remain slim indeed for now, as the latter is still in a mobilization and preparation phase and thus unable to confront al-Qaeda militarily. But a repeat of the Syrian scenario remains possible in light of the battle for influence that rages between them, while taking into account that their shared hostility for the Houthis may delay any such clashes.

Will natural gas cartel be successful in setting LNG, CNG prices?
Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
TEHRAN, Iran — On Nov. 23, eight foreign heads of state — from Russia, Venezuela, Iraq, Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Turkmenistan and Algeria — gathered in Tehran’s International Conference Center under tight security. Their aim? To further develop a strategy of cooperation among member countries of the 14-year-old Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), an international body equivalent to OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
In the two days leading up to the conference, Iran was busy hosting the 17th GECF ministerial meeting, during which Azerbaijan was announced as an observer for the first time. Moreover, while neither a GECF member nor observer, Turkmenistan’s president attended the forum as a special guest. Of note, Kazakhstan, Iraq, the Netherlands, Norway, Oman and Peru are GECF observer states, while other members include Egypt, Libya, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Arab Emirates and, of course, Iran.
The Nov. 23 gathering — the third of its kind after the Doha summit in 2011 and the Moscow meeting in 2013 — allowed the seven observers and 18 member states to discuss the latest developments, trends and policies related to energy, in general, and natural gas, in particular. The event was also an effort to reaffirm the members’ continued support for GECF’s objectives.
At the Forum’s opening ceremony, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani affirmed that the conference aims to help boost the “collective interests” of member states and facilitate multilateral technical cooperation — all of which was outlined in a joint declaration that was prepared during the preceding ministerial meeting and subsequently endorsed by the visiting heads of state. The declaration asserts that observer and member states collectively hold two-thirds of the world’s proven natural gas reserves and vows to expand multilateral relations and encourage joint investment projects in the gas sector. Rouhani also announced Iran’s decision to further protect the security of the global energy supply, calling on his guests to devise “coordinated policies” to help increase the share of natural gas in the global energy basket.
Energy — or better said, petroleum — has always been a key component of Iranian diplomacy in the past decades. However, it now appears that the Islamic Republic is considering a revision of this strategy, developing its gas industry as a replacement for oil — especially as crude prices have been plummeting. Of note, Iran has in past years lagged behind Qatar in exploiting South Pars/North Dome, one of the world’s largest gas reservoirs that Iran and Qatar share in the Persian Gulf. This has been primarily due to macroeconomic mismanagement and external pressures; namely, the international sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Indeed, senior officials in Iran hold the conviction that the country should “become a major player” in the global gas trade, given that it holds more than 33 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves. In this vein, Iran hopes to double its natural gas output to 1.3 billion cubic meters a day by March 2021. Thus, the gas summit was a great opportunity for Tehran to communicate its energy development plans to global investors, right at a time when economic sanctions on Iran are about to be lifted as a consequence of the July 14 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The gas summit also sent a message to the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Convention Framework, held in Paris starting Nov. 30, on climate change, with the Iranian president calling on the 196 countries participating in the Paris event to turn to a cleaner source of energy — namely, natural gas — which holds “rich harvestable resources for the future decades.”
Another — and maybe the most important — objective of the GECF gathering was to encourage member countries to help stabilize global natural gas prices. Addressing the conference, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari called on GECF’s leadership to sustain the pricing mechanism of gas in the international market to the advantage of its members. Buhari said, “The stability of the energy and financial market is critical to ensuring investments in current and future natural gas projects.” His thoughts were shared by other participants, including Libyan Education Minister Fathi al-Majburi, who warned against the impact of market fluctuations on the economies of GECF member states, urging joint efforts to stabilize the global market.
However, despite hopes that GECF could play a systematic role in the pricing process similarly to what OPEC has done, GECF will only be able to price liquefied natural gas in an effective way, because it is the only gas product that can be shipped in tankers and, therefore, priced in short-term contracts. Indeed, the most-consumed gas product (compressed natural gas) is transferred through pipelines, which are dependent on long-term investment in order to be constructed. For this reason, the pricing process for natural gas, unlike the case for oil, is more affected by bilateral negotiations between the buyer and seller than global markets. Thus, GECF is unlikely to have an impact on the global market, at least not in the short run. However, it may affect gas exports in the long run, as the participants of the summit in Tehran vowed to boost technical cooperation and joint investment projects, all of which are measures that could lead to a rise in supply in a matter of years.
Although some argue that OPEC-like gas organizations are doomed to fail, regional or international cooperation among natural gas exporters may not be ineffectual after all. Optimism among GECF member states has grown since the forum’s first and second summits, where only four and six heads of state, respectively, showed up. Additionally, even if GECF fails to set a pricing policy, it will definitely facilitate exchanges of expertise and know-how among member countries. This would provide a win-win situation that yields returns for both gas exporters and gas consumers, given the rising demand for this cleaner form of energy, which is less harmful than coal or oil and easier to store and transport.
**Alireza Ramezani has a masters degree in Journalism Studies from Cardiff University, UK. He has worked for media organizations and business firms in Iran since 1999.

Why defeating the Islamic State won't bring stability to Iraq
Ali Mamouri/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
Iraq’s most urgent challenge is to eliminate the Islamic State (IS), but that battle will be just a prelude to myriad conflicts in liberated areas such as Sinjar and Tuz Khormato if the rival parties can't reach a consensus on their future status
The forces that helped liberate the areas — namely the peshmerga, Shiite militias and minority Sunni forces, among others — are already disputing who will control the lands.
Once Sinjar was freed Nov. 12 by various Kurdish and local Yazidi forces, armed and political conflicts ignited between forces of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) peshmerga. The dispute seemed simple enough in the beginning, as Kurdistan, the PKK, Yazidis and others rushed to raise their partisan flags over major government buildings. But that rush prompted Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani to say Nov. 13 that only the Kurdistan flag could be raised.
That same day, Haider Shesho, commander of the Protection Force of Sinjar, accused the Kurdish parties involved in the fighting against IS of advancing their factional interests over those of Sinjar.
The current disputes in Sinjar reflect Kurdish internal conflict as well as Turkish influence on the Kurdish situation.
The Barzani-led Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which holds the majority of KRG seats in the Iraqi Kurdistan parliament, has good ties with Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, while the PKK is embroiled in an ancient and bloody conflict with the Turkish government in the Kurdish areas of Turkey and Syria. Meanwhile, the Turkish army continues to occasionally bombard PKK positions in Turkey, Iraq and Syria.
Barzani has repeatedly called on the PKK to remove its bases from Iraqi Kurdistan in order to ensure the safety of civilians.
Iraq’s political conflict is strongly linked to the surrounding region. The same applies to Iraqi Kurdistan, as the rise of the PKK is considered a challenge to Barzani at home and a challenge to Turkey in the Kurdish-Turkish conflict.
On another front, clashes erupted Nov. 11 between Kurdish forces and various factions of the Shiite Popular Mobilization Units in Tuz Khormato, in Salahuddin province. Fighters from both parties were kidnapped, killed and wounded. The situation has remained tense, despite mediation by various parties, including the Iraqi government and Iran.
Once again, regional differences were reflected on the internal situation in Tuz Khormato. On Nov. 16, Arshad Salhi, head of the Turkmen Front, accused Kurdish forces of allowing the PKK to be present in their Turkmen-majority city and said that action will result in serious repercussions.
Nevertheless, PKK Cmdr. Sarhad Afrini said the Turkish state, which is hostile to the PKK, is behind those accusations. He said his party is present in the Tuz Khormato district to protect people of various sects from IS threats. He added that his party does not have any sectarian project in areas where it is present.
Problems in the post-IS phase will be more varied and complex than the fighting against IS itself, and solutions will probably be harder to find. The parties involved have diverse and conflicting regional associations. This diversity includes nationalist forces with separatist ambitions, such as the PKK and to a lesser extent Barzani’s KDP; religious forces such as Shiite militias like the Hezbollah Brigades and Asaib Ahl al-Haq that have an ideological alliance with Iran; and zonal factors such as the tribal forces led by Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha in Anbar province, which have regional ambitions to liberate their areas.
It could be that the real war in Iraq has not even started yet. The moment IS is defeated could mark the start of the comprehensive collapse of Iraqi identity. This is a possibility since the political entities that formed following the 2003 invasion of Iraq — such as the Dawa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq — have not succeeded in laying a foundation for unity.
The parties involved agreed to put aside their accumulated differences and conflicts to focus on battling IS. This has created two new challenges. On one hand, some groups’ differences are re-emerging as areas are being liberated. On the other hand, new political and military forces have been formed that did not previously exist or were not as effective as they are today. The various Shiite militias that are fighting against IS under the banner of the Popular Mobilization Units have become a political force, as they seek to participate in elections — which no Iraqi government can ignore in the future, especially when it comes to any potential decision regarding the liberated areas. The Kurdish separatist forces have become stronger and more candid regarding their separatist project. Some minorities have formed military forces to defend themselves in the current and future conflicts.
In this context, a return to the pre-IS status is impossible.
The Iraqi government should focus its efforts on a comprehensive and realistic national reconciliation in which the various Iraqi parties can agree on a single national decision. This reconciliation should include confronting and settling comprehensive details about the future of the liberated areas or the disputed areas to prevent bitter conflicts in the future.

Who's afraid of the 'intifada'?
Shlomi Eldar/Al-Monitor/December 01/15
The first week of December marks two full months since the outbreak of violence in Israel on Oct. 1. During this time, dozens of attacks have been recorded, occasionally two or three a day. To date, 21 Israelis have been killed in addition to one Eritrean and about 100 Palestinians.
Addressing military correspondents on Nov. 25, a senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officer said that the uprising might very well expand. According to him, on average there are about 15 flash points on weekdays and about 40 total during weekends. Additionally, the number of demonstrators can run as high as 200,000. Yet, the IDF refuses to call the events of the past two months an intifada, or uprising.
The use of the expressions “intifada” and “wave of terror” is not merely a matter of terminology or semantics. Defining the event is important because it is essential for ascertaining the most suitable and most effective tools for combating and curbing incidents. If one is talking about an intifada, then much greater and more elaborate resources would be needed than would be the case for the type of limited military response required to stop a “wave of assailants.”
“Wave of terror” — the term the Israeli defense establishment has been using since early October and which has since been revised to a “limited uprising” — is misleading. It makes people, including those in Israel’s political establishment, think that the “wave” will blow over, so no decisions of any real substance are needed to make it go away. Indeed, the operational measures taken to date to counter this so-called wave of terror have been reactionary and limited. They consist of demolishing the homes of attackers, combating incitement, setting up roadblocks and beefing up troops, mainly in East Jerusalem and Hebron, and a few other tactics.
An intifada, by contrast, is an uprising that essentially involves all of Palestinian society. Extraordinary measures — military, diplomatic and both — are called for in combating it. The first intifada (1987-1991) officially ended in 1993 with the signing of the Oslo Accord and the handshake on the White House lawn between Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat. The second intifada (2000-2005) petered out and ended following a series of military and diplomatic measures, including the targeted assassinations of Hamas’ political leaders and Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005.
To understand what Palestinian society in the West Bank is presently experiencing — Gaza is a whole different ball game — and to develop an operational or diplomatic response to the third intifada, Israel must first call a spade a spade. We are not talking about a wave of terror perpetrated by a handful of young Palestinians “infecting” each other with violence. Rather, this is a much deeper phenomenon. The current intifada has enthralled most young Palestinians in the territories. They are not afraid of actively participating in it even in the absence of a guiding hand.
A colleague in the West Bank speaking on condition of anonymity said that this intifada, as opposed to the previous ones and especially the second one, which included armed militants, deserves to be called “an uprising.” “This is the first time,” my colleague argued, “that you Israelis are seeing young disheartened Palestinians who are genuinely rising up. This is not about brainwashing or organizations and armed cells that have different interests and objectives. This is an unadulterated uprising.”
According to him, it is incorrect to call the perpetrators terrorists. “What are terrorists?” he asked before replying himself. “A terrorist is someone who is a member of a terrorist organization that sends him to carry out an attack on behalf of the organization and its cause. But in this intifada, almost all the young people are lone wolves acting out of despair. What kind of terrorists are those who have no past and who also have no future?”
This is probably the reason why the Israeli army has had a hard time grasping the deterioration in security as a full-blown intifada. After all, the intensity of the attacks is lower compared to the suicide bombers who blew themselves up on buses during the second intifada. Even the number of demonstrators in clashes with the IDF is markedly less compared to the two previous intifadas. The large organizations — Hamas, which spearheaded the second intifada, and Fatah — are not taking part in events. Yet, this is insufficient for arguing that what is happening is a transient wave. Quite the contrary. The number of assailants today has surpassed all the suicide bombers of the second intifada. On Nov. 27, three attacks were logged on the same day.
The IDF has learned its lesson from the two previous intifadas, coming to the realization that restraint and a proportionate and reasonable response to events are the required military approach. The IDF has also learned, albeit belatedly, that this intifada, although still not called such, is an outcome of the grim reality in the territories. This is why the army has recommended to the political echelon that it improve the economic situation of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to diminish the feelings of despair and frustration among young people, thereby perhaps reducing their motivation to mount attacks. One way to achieve this objective is to grant Palestinians more permits to work in Israel.
The IDF’s most far-reaching recommendation to the political echelon has been to provide the PA with guns and ammunition to deal with future challenges. The IDF fully realizes that the current situation could lead to anarchy in the PA-controlled territories. This is not some imaginary horror scenario, but is based on the lessons learned from the previous uprisings. Palestinian organizations such as Hamas are still straddling the fence, but who can say how long that will last?
Will the IDF's recommendations be adopted by the political establishment? Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government choose not to crank up the pressure on the PA to avert further escalation? It's highly doubtful. All one need to do is listen to the proposals by Netanyahu’s ministers: a military operation similar to 2002's Operation Defensive Shield, closure on the territories and economic sanctions against the PA. These are only some of the proposals that have been published.
Israel’s defense and political establishments speak two different languages, and oddly enough, the tables have reversed. The political establishment wants to apply a heavy-handed policy and strike back, while the army proposes greater leniency in response to the uprising. The IDF understands that given the characteristics of the new intifada, a military operation like Operation Defensive Shield will not quash the motivation of dispirited young Palestinians.
The IDF, however, is also to blame in part for the ineptness of the political echelon. By initially proclaiming recent events as a transient wave of terror, it gave the political establishment an excuse to simply set up roadblocks, beef up troops and abstain from taking major tangible decisions. Perhaps things would be different if the defense minister, chief of staff or director of military intelligence had told the premier and his ministers, “This is an uprising, an intifada, and there is no effective military response. Please decide what you would like to do.”
**Shlomi Eldar is a columnist for Al-Monitor’s Israel Pulse.

Russia's Failed Adventure in Syria
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/December 01/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6990/russia-failure-syria
Then there is the question of just how long Russia can afford to sustain its expensive military adventure in Syria. The Russian economy already has enough difficulties without having to bear the cost of Mr Putin's latest act of military aggression.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may well come to regret agreeing to Iran's request for Moscow to intervene militarily in Syria's brutal civil war.
The shooting down of a Russian warplane over the Syrian border by Turkey has graphically illustrated the risks Moscow faces after the Kremlin agreed to intervene on behalf of Syria's beleaguered President Bashar al-Assad.
Mr Putin took his fateful decision to launch military action in Syria after meeting Major-General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's notorious Quds Force, in Moscow last August. Visiting Moscow shortly after the conclusion of June's deal on the future of Iran's nuclear programme (JCPOA), Soleimani delivered a blunt warning to the Russian leader that the Assad regime, Russia's long-standing strategic ally in the Middle East, faced defeat without outside support.
Major-General Soleimani's intervention was sufficient to persuade Mr Putin to enter the Syria fray, and within weeks Russian SU-24 Sukhoi bombers were regularly attacking the positions of opposition fighters, while forces from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been brought in as reinforcements to bolster the ranks of pro-Assad Syrian Army forces and their Lebanese Hizbollah allies.
Yet, even before last week's shooting down of a Russian SU-24 bomber by a Turkish F-16 fighter, there were clear signs that the new joint Russian-Iranian offensive is struggling to make headway against the Syrian rebels.
The first sign that Russia's military intervention was not going according to plan came in October, when a Russian-backed plan to recapture the strategically important northern Syrian city of Hama was halted by stiff rebel resistance. Western intelligence sources say one decisive factor was the delivery to the rebels of 500 U.S.-made TOW anti-tank missiles, believed to have been provided by the Saudis.
In what has since become known locally as the "massacre of the tanks", nearly 20 tanks and armoured personnel carriers fielded by the Assad regime were knocked out of action by the highly accurate TOW missiles.
Left: A Russian SU-24 bomber crashing after being shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter on Nov. 24. Right: A Syrian rebel fighter prepares to fire a TOW missile at an Assad regime tank.
The fierce resistance put up by anti-government forces, which also claimed the lives of several senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers, dealt a serious blow to the morale of regime loyalists. It also resulted in a significant change of tactics on the part of the Russians who, aware of the limitations of the regime's ground forces, have increased their reliance on air power to achieve their objective of defeating the rebels.
But while the Russians insist that their main attacks in Syria are being directed against fighters associated with the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), the reality is that they are bombing a large variety of anti-Assad forces – including those backed by the U.S.-led military coalition. One of the explanations given for the Turks shooting down a Russian SU-24 jet was that it had been bombing rebel groups backed by Turkey rather than ISIS, as the Russians later claimed.
The lack of progress made in Syria since Mr Putin first authorized Russian military involvement could soon have serious repercussions for the Kremlin.
Public support for the mission in Russia is starting to wane, after Investigators suggested the bombing of a Russian passenger jet over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula at the end of October, killing all 224 on board, was carried out by ISIS terrorists in retaliation for Moscow's military campaign.
Many Russians are also wary of the country becoming embroiled in another long, drawn-out military entanglement, as happened in Afghanistan in the 1980s and ultimately ended with the Soviet Union suffering an ignominious defeat.
And then there is the question of just how long Russia can afford to sustain its expensive military adventure in Syria. The Russian economy already has enough difficulties without having to bear the cost of Mr Putin's latest act of military aggression. Moscow's invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s ultimately bankrupted the Soviet Union: the Syrian conflict could have a similarly catastrophic effect on modern Russia.
*Con Coughlin is the Defence Editor of the Daily Telegraph, London.

Women’s role in Saudi municipal elections is a huge step
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
It makes us proud to see Saudi women take part in elections for the first time. There are 979 women participating as candidates in the upcoming municipal elections. That is a big number, and it’s a huge step forward in a country that, according to some international organizations, is one of the most excluding of women. Saudi Arabia has occupied the lowest ranks of the World Economic Forum’s list of countries by gender parity, although women constitute 20 percent of the local labor force. According to the 2008 gender parity report, the kingdom was among the lowest-ranking countries in terms of the political empowerment of women, with the lowest possible score of zero. No society can move forward when it obstructs the presence of half of its population due to inherited governmental regulations or traditions. Saudi women have today achieved significant progress in several fields. They have 30 seats in the Shura Council after they were granted a 20 percent quota. These women have managed to positively contribute to the council's discussions, ideas and votes. The council is also currently reviewing all regulations which are considered as obstructive to women's rights and work.Regarding the upcoming municipal elections, women will not only participate as voters but also as candidates running for this public office, something that was previously exclusive to men. As I’ve said in a previous article, what’s important is not the result but that women take part and participate.
An important declaration
Even if none of these female candidates win in the elections, their participation alone is tantamount to an important declaration in this country’s present and future.
No society can move forward when it obstructs the presence of half of its population due to inherited governmental regulations or traditions, especially given that Saudi women have overcome many challenges and achieved success in educational and scientific fields and in the labor market both inside and outside the kingdom. It’s also not right for there to be more female than male students across all educational stages, and yet for women to be kept marginal in society. There have been significant changes in this area. For example, many fathers and husbands think that women’s employment has become a necessity, because women have become breadwinners and are no longer a burden on the family. Saudi women’s insistence to work and acceptance of low wages as well as taking risks to travel long distances on dangerous roads to work every day reflect a true struggle that’s rare in any other society. This is a testimony to women’s insistence and determination. Women cannot therefore be marginalized just because a certain category refuses the idea of women’s employment – with some even rejecting the idea that women can go outside their homes. This is a social struggle, and I am happy that the government has taken the women’s side and involved them in the elections, thus sending a clear message to everyone. Honestly speaking, I did not expect such a large number of women, almost a thousand, to run for office. Social obstructions that usually prevent women from running for office and even from voting, led me to estimate that the number of candidates would not exceed 50. As to what women will do in the municipal councils, then that’s up to them. Women are important in their neighborhoods, as they know about local problems better than men, who spend most of their time outside their homes and the nearby areas.
The role of these councils will progress with time. Women are currently part of the state’s legislative council and they will be part of municipal councils and will thus be granted job opportunities in fields that were once exclusive to men. Laws that decrease the restrictions on women’s family and administrative conditions are also being studied. It’s only recently that women were granted their own independent identity cards. There have been certain failures, such as rejecting the study of a draft law on protecting women from harassment. But I am confident that this draft law will be studied and approved by the majority of the Shura Council members who saw the size of protest against their previous decision. Women’s experiences in Gulf societies cannot be separated from one another. One of the pleasing achievements is that of Dr Amal al-Qubaisi, who was appointed president of the Federal National Council in the United Arab Emirates. This is an advanced political move with many significant indications.

Arabs caught between Turkey’s Sultan and Russia’s Tsar
Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
Should we be angered or grieved by all the comments and reactions of the Arab public opinion after Turkey last week downed a Russian bomber near the Syrian border? Or should we just laugh out loud? Those reacting to the incident were either very happy or very angry, as if they own the skies that the world leaders are fighting over. The confrontation between Russia’s new Tsar Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems like a debate that will not end anytime soon: all regional and local circumstances do not suggest the political situation will be imminently contained. The two rivals share a similar nature – especially on the level of their egos. This takes the confrontation to a whole new level, going beyond the dispute in Syria and the fate of Bashar al-Assad, thus turning this into a personal dispute.
Dreams of greatness
It’s no coincidence that both Putin and Erdogan have dreams of greatness and miss the past glories of wars between the Russian and Ottoman empires. This history has seduced those who are politically divided in the Arab world, dragging them behind the illusion of the greatness of the Tsar and the charm of the Sultan’s power. They thus took to Facebook and Twitter, arguing and fighting on behalf of the Turks and Russians as if the Arabs are descendants of the Russian emperors or inheritors of the Ottoman empire. The confrontation between Putin and Erdogan may look interesting, but is however dangerous to us all. Those biased towards the Russian Tsar – whether they are Syrians in support of Bashar al-Assad, Egyptians fascinated by Erdogan’s archrival President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, or the few whom think ISIS is a single existential threat – rejoice when Putin gets angry, as they see their renewed source of power in him. Meanwhile, those who admire Erdogan – whether they are Syrians who oppose Assad, or Arabs who oppose Iran – were thrilled by their Ottoman Sultan when Turkey downed the Tsar’s jet, as they seek to rekindle illusions of the past, of a nation’s history they’re so fond of.
Of course, the internet and social media platforms allowed people to express themselves via the most amusing and ironic ways. This is mostly what social media users do. However the exaggeration and illusions that most of those reacting to the incident resorted to implied that they are replacing their helplessness with another power, which is this time embodied by Putin and Erdogan. At this point, we must not spend more time being negative regarding this incident. The confrontation between Putin and Erdogan may look interesting, but is however dangerous to us all. It’s true that world leaders are concerned with the ongoing tensions but they are far from them as the war is outside their geographical scope. Arabs, however, whether they celebrate, disagree or make fun of the situation, will be the ones to suffer as other countries fight in their skies and shell their land. Considering the situation, it’s not wise to ignore the fact that Putin and Erdogan are very similar leaders. They both admire themselves and govern unilaterally, adopting an eliminatory policy towards rivals. It is this approach that allowed Putin to invade Georgia and Ukraine and which allowed Erdogan to shell Kurds fighting ISIS in Syria. Both leaders act upon personal motives, and tend to act based on hatred towards other leaders – and neither of them hesitate to show this.Amid this complicated scene – given the situation in Syria, and the global chaos around us – being dragged behind the illusions of someone's grandeur, even if it matches our stance during this phase, is a naive act. And it is one that either leads to a temporary delusional euphoria of victory which quickly fades – or to a devastating defeat that will be difficult to recover from.

Should Saudi Arabia see Putin as threat?
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
We had better take seriously the implicit Russian threats made in an article published by the Pravda website, which is supportive of President Vladimir Putin. It urged the sanction of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey due to what the writer claimed was the three countries' support of ISIS, something it said threatens to trigger World War III. Such a sentiment was also reflected in the Echo of Moscow website by one of the Russian President’s former advisers, who was blatantly calling for the targeting of military positions and oil sites in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Yes, Putin is foolish, brutal and cannot be trusted. But I believe he also hates us - and that we must consider these threats as being made directly by him. Putin built his reputation as Russia’s ruthless strongman when he first came to power 15 years ago. He gained popularity by stimulating the feelings of nationalism and the Russian national pride and by rekindling in Russians’ hearts some kind of hope, in a similar way as under fascism. This was his way of compensating them for his economic failure, and the disparities of wealth between poor and middle-income earners, and the opulent ruling minority.
Violation of international legitimacy
Putin moved victorious from Chechnya, where he conducted all sorts of killing and destruction, to Ukraine where he annexed Crimea to his empire, in a clear violation of international legitimacy. The West objected at that time, and used a lot of rhetoric, before accepting the fait accompli. Then the Tsar came to our Arab world, where he claims to have “vital interests”, and entered without permission, got comfortable and concluded an alliance with the sectarian minority, joining them in the killing and oppression, and imposing his own status quo. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey will become intertwined with the Syrian opposition in the eyes of Putin. After he will fail to defeat them, he will search for someone to blame - and will find no one but us. Putin is even meddling in Muslim affairs, turning to a minority that shares his passions and ambitions. He met with Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, offering him an old Quran manuscript as a gift, as if saying 'here is Islam'. Meanwhile, Putin dares to criticize what he calls the policy of “Islamization” in Turkey! It is, therefore, only a matter of time before he attacks Saudi Arabia and makes it carry the burden of both the old and the new. Putin has scored victory after victory, arranging them as medals on his chest to be worn on the day he would be acclaimed as the head of the dominating power in a region that extends from Crimea to Syria. Putin’s dream was however hindered by three stubborn countries that rejected his project and refused to be submissive to him: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar.
Game-changer
All of this became evident last Tuesday morning when the Turkish air force downed a Russian fighter jet, which fell amid “God is great” chants and the cheering of Syrian rebels in mountains near the Syrian-Turkish border. A few moments were enough to draw the new rules of the political game in the Middle East. For just like Putin changed the rules of the game when he backed the Iranians and the Syrian regime in their war against a people longing for freedom, the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the one changing the rules now. The incident of the Russian plane will happen again as we are almost in a state of war with the Russians despite of all the visits, meetings and exchanged smiles. Sooner or later, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey will become intertwined with the Syrian opposition in the eyes of Putin. After he will fail to defeat them, he will search for someone to blame - and will find no one but us.
Moreover, if the coming negotiations in Vienna fail (which is most likely to happen), parties involved in the Syrian conflict will have no choice but to escalate the confrontations to achieve a victory that will end the conflict.
Putin invincible no more
Another confrontation might take place even before the Vienna negotiations. The downing of the Russian Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet has distorted the image of the invincible Putin and his feared Russia. This will affect Putin’s situation internally, especially with the arrival home of the bodies of the soldiers involved in Russia’s first external war since its defeat in Afghanistan. Putin might defy the Turks for a second time; then, another Sukhoi or Mig will be shot down and he will definitely lose his mind. Putin, indeed, started an indiscriminate bombing of the Syrian Turkmen areas. This is not a war but a revenge operation! Who can guarantee that another Sukhoi fighter jet will not be shut down, this time by a surface-to-air missile? The bear will get angrier; he will accuse Saudi Arabia or Qatar or even both of providing the revolutionaries with the missile, and put the blame on them. The deteriorating economic situation of Russia is also increasing Putin’s anger, as Russia lost its ranking as the world’s eighth biggest economy and dropped in terms of GDP. From this perspective, Russia will accuse Saudi Arabia of reducing oil prices. Can we meet halfway with the Russians in Syria in order to avoid the unthinkable? I rule that out. Consider our project in Syria, which does not include any intervention, but is based on Syria’s full independence and the establishment of a democratic Syrian government. On the other hand, the Russian stance is based on the rule of the minority, and a permanent foreign interference under the cover of false and democratic elections similar to the ones held in Russia, where the government has become a savage and where the journalists fear being killed for pursuing their profession. These two stances will never converge due to their big differences. At the same time, they will keep on clashing on Syrian territory, until one triumphs over the other. Just as Saudi Arabia will never accept a permanent Iranian influence in Syria, Turkey will also reject any permanent Russian influence in its southern part. The bottom line is that we will inevitably confront each other. Given that Putin lacks the chivalry to accept defeat and walk away, he will most probably cause a military escalation in Syria. He will try to break our ranks and divide us, as we have many gaps he can seek to exploit. Will Putin dare threaten Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Qatar as called for through Pravda and his former adviser? Putin is behaving arrogantly, like a bully, rather than a skilled politician. He was trained in the old Soviet intelligence school and, thus, adopts their dirtiest methods with no hesitation. Putin has a very negative track record; nevertheless, he remains important and we must deal with him because he is the head of a major power. I am not saying that Putin is beyond our control but I expect the worse, and call for caution. We are in a defensive position and cannot withdraw from the Syrian arena because our support to its revolution is a way of defending our country as well. It is important to be cautious as we are forced to enter the Russian forest.

Iran’s bad gamble on Syria
Andrew Bowen/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
With growing reports that Iran’s notorious Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani has suffered debilitating injuries, the loss of Tehran’s main strategist and public face of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s campaign to shore up President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Damascus would certainly be a costly blow to Iran’s regional ambitions. Despite Soleimani’s initial victories against ISIS, Tehran’s campaign has been a costly military gamble for ultimately a political solution, which Iran may no longer be in a position to shape. Soleimani’s visit to Moscow for increased assistance in the campaign may have been necessary for Tehran – but it was a strategic and mortal miscalculation for Soleimani personally and for the Supreme Leader. Tehran’s room for maneuver has been substantially curtailed by President Putin’s military move to shore up Assad and concurrently, his diplomatic hardball in Vienna. While the Russian President’s military move hasn’t produced the full gains that he may have first expected, Putin’s diplomacy has reaped substantial dividends.
Putin eclipses Khamenei
Instead of Tehran being seen as the key broker to a settlement on Syria, Putin has positioned himself as the holder of Assad’s future. From King Abdullah of Jordan to President Obama to Prime Minister Netanyahu, it’s not Tehran that world leaders go to for a deal on Syria, but Moscow. Putin’s terms for a settlement are arguably more palatable for regional states that see Iran’s motives in Syria as opportunistically sectarian. Putin’s terms for a settlement are arguably more palatable for regional states that see Iran’s motives in Syria as opportunistically sectarian. Moscow’s actions in Syria are perceived then as strategically driven and, critically, negotiable. Russia’s commitment as well to fighting ISIS has created space for a dialogue between Russia and regional and global powers over how to more robustly address this security challenge. Iran has played a very well-resourced hand quite poorly in contrast to Russia, which has played a weak, low resourced hand quite well. For a fraction of the cost of Iran’s expenditures on Syria, Putin has a window of opportunity now at the Vienna talks to reach a settlement of Syria’s civil war, where President Assad, after a period of constitutional reform, would agree to new presidential and parliamentary elections. In contrast to Iran – which has a lot less room to maneuver on an alternative Syrian Presidential candidate to Assad – Moscow has more options, including current Ba’athist officials and senior Syrian army officers. Unlike Russia, which has had a decades-old relationship with the Syrian army and Syria’s Sunni, Alawi, and Christian communities, Ayatollah Khameini’s main relationship is with President Assad and to a lesser degree with the Alawite community and the security and intelligence services that resent Iran’s new position in Syria. While Russia’s candidate for Syria’s Presidency may secure some of Iran’s interests, such a candidate will not be as beholden to Tehran as Assad is.
Iran’s fait accompli
Putin is more likely to force a settlement on Assad that would prevent him from running for another term, compared with Tehran, which has no clear alternative candidate at present. The Russian President has a limited window to demonstrate that Russia is a global power that the U.S., Europe, and regional states need to work with. While Obama may see the Vienna talks as a process that doesn’t necessarily need to finish at the end of his presidency, Putin needs to show domestically and internationally that these talks, brokered in part by his administration, is the only avenue for peace. The Russian President has no intention of being dragged into a quagmire in Syria. For Ayatollah Khamenei, his room to oppose such a settlement, if Russia is able to bridge the gaps with the GCC and Turkey, is narrow. He may seek to turn this costly bad gamble around by trying to play hardball with Putin to reach a settlement more favorable to him, but the costs of the conflict (as evidenced by his own lead commander lying in a hospital bed) and Khamenei’s own need for Russian assistance to prop up Assad may check such moves. Khamenei may also make the call that going up against Russia on Syria is too dangerous a risk at this point, as Iran operates in a post-nuclear deal environment. Russia is, critically, one of the main sellers of the arms and military technology that Iran needs. To further expand Iran’s military capabilities in the region, the Supreme Leader can’t completely alienate Putin.

Breaking the ISIS economy through forensics
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/Al Arabiya/December 01/15
You have to give Russian President Vladimir Putin credit for attracting more attention to ISIS financial streams coming from state actors. Putin has recently raised the concept of ISIS funding to a whole new level, targeting state-level collusion in helping finance the group’s economic engine. At the G-20 meeting in Istanbul, Putin said: “I provided examples based on our data on the financing of different Islamic State units by private individuals. This money, as we have established, comes from 40 countries, and there are some of the G-20 members among them.”There is no doubt that Russia, through its security services, has the means and capability to garner such information much better than its Western counterparts.
Illegal trade
Putin added that the photographic evidence is overwhelming, especially of oil tankers allegedly involved in illegal trade. “I’ve shown our colleagues photos taken from space and from aircraft which clearly demonstrate the scale of the illegal trade in oil and petroleum products,” he said. “The motorcade of refueling vehicles stretched for dozens of kilometers, so that from a height of 4,000 to 5,000 meters they stretch beyond the horizon.”It took the Russian president’s frustration and fury with Turkey to make ISIS’s economy a front-page issue again. After the shoot-down of Russia’s Su-24 bomber by the Turkish air force, Putin again pointed angrily to Turkey’s double-sidedness on allowing ISIS to use Turkish territory for its economic lifeline: “[ISIS] has big money, hundreds of millions – or even billions – of dollars, from selling oil. In addition, they are protected by the military of an entire nation [Turkey].”
Clearly it took the Russian president’s frustration and fury with Turkey to make ISIS’s economy a front-page issue again, with added emphasis on state culpability.
No action on ISIS oil
ISIS’s oil economy is not a new issue. It has been haunting practically everyone, as to why nothing truly is being done about breaking ISIS’s economic system. ISIS oil production in Syria is focused on the Conoco and al-Taim oil fields, west and northwest of Deir Ezzor, while in Iraq the group uses al-Najma and al-Qayara fields near Mosul. A number of smaller fields in both Iraq and Syria are used by the group for local energy needs. Last year, ISIS’s practice of pumping oil and selling it on the black market via Turkey to outside buyers – allegedly Syria, Israel, and some Eastern European countries – has already been documented through economic forensics and with a more recent report. The Turkish opposition MP Ali Edibogluan said that ISIS had smuggled $800 million worth of oil into Turkey from Syria and Iraq. He added, “Turkey’s cooperation with thousands of men of such a mentality is extremely dangerous.” He is right.
Operation Inherent Resolve?
Since the inception of the U.S.-led Operation Inherent Resolve, the American alliance targeted ISIS’s mobile oil refineries and other related infrastructure but that approach appeared to be too careful and narrow in terms of rules of engagement. ISIS simply fixed the damage and continued business as usual, showing its resilience through spare parts and repairs. Tankers continued to move towards Turkey as they were part of the convoys of other goods that transit the Levant delivering local goods ranging from car parts to food products and household goods. The fact that ISIS mixed the oil tanker caravans with normal Levantine ground traffic helped to give it an advantage by using “economic” shields.But that has changed as the Russians have gone on the offensive against ISIS’s oil economy. About a week ago, Russia started to destroy the mobile infrastructure that allows ISIS to transport and sell oil. The Russian air force destroyed about 500 fuel tankers according to the Spokesman for the Russian General Staff, Colonel General Andrey Kartapolov. This “greatly reduced illegal oil export capabilities of the militants and, accordingly, their income from oil smuggling”, Kartapolov is reported as saying. What did Operation Inherent Resolve do? The American-led alliance destroyed 250 “safe” oil targets. That’s it. Clearly, something is wrong here.
Putin’s assertion that ISIS’s economy is backed by states is notable. ISIS sells Iraqi and Syrian oil for a very low price to Kurdish and Turkish smuggling networks and mafias, who label it and sell it on as barrels from the Kurdistan Regional Government. In addition, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son Bilal, who is head of BMZ Ltd. shipping out of Ceyhan, is being suggested as a possible conduit. That allegation is embarrassing for the Turkish president during these tense times. To boot, ISIS uses other tools to boost its economy, including the seizure of crop lands, central banks and hydro-electric plants. According to several Arab officials, Iraq, at least up to recently, was paying the salaries of bank officials in Mosul and funding several water stations along the Euphrates river system. This fact not only helps ISIS but also makes a mockery of Iraq’s fight against the group. This is a local revenue strategy and practice that needs to be stamped out. Don’t be surprised if pressure is put on the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and everyone connected to the Iraqi Central Bank.
Economic forensic analytics
What is needed now, besides kinetic action on ISIS, is a robust, multi-pronged effort in economic forensics. Economic forensic analytics is the procurement and analysis of electronic, human intelligence, or other relevant data to reconstruct, detect, or otherwise support a claim of financial fraud to support criminal or terrorist activity. Other goals include the detection of errors, inefficiencies, and biases where people tend towards certain behaviors – perhaps favoring specific numbers or number ranges – to influence decision makers or to circumvent actual or perceived international controls and thresholds. The main steps in forensic analytics are data collection, data preparation, data analysis, and reporting. There is a lot of work to be done with coordination, information sharing, and, most importantly, notable and robust action. Economic forensics requirements will reveal some very unpleasant truths that may affect geopolitics for at least a decade.
The good news is that there is a start in the economic forensics process particularly involving the ISIS oil trade, as well as in the sale of antiquities. It is a slow process but the more investigators probe the dark underbelly of enablers of the ISIS economy, the better all parties will know who is guilty.
Given that Turkey is indeed caught up in the illicit ISIS economy, drastic measures against the Turkish state or its military need to be implemented, and fast. Ankara is playing with fire; the Russians know it 100 percent, while the West knows it implicitly, but is afraid to confront Turkey outright because it is a NATO member. All stakeholders in the fight against ISIS need to come clean because economic forensics requirements will reveal some very unpleasant truths that may affect geopolitics for at least a decade. That’s not good news in this tough and volatile neighborhood surrounding the so-called caliphate.