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Bible Quotation For Today/
Luke 16/01-08: "The Lord Jesus said to the disciples: ‘There was a rich man who had a manager, and charges were brought to him that this man was squandering his property. So he summoned him and said to him, "What is this that I hear about you? Give me an account of your management, because you cannot be my manager any longer." Then the manager said to himself, "What will I do, now that my master is taking the position away from me? I am not strong enough to dig, and I am ashamed to beg. I have decided what to do so that, when I am dismissed as manager, people may welcome me into their homes."So, summoning his master’s debtors one by one, he asked the first, "How much do you owe my master?" He answered, "A hundred jugs of olive oil." He said to him, "Take your bill, sit down quickly, and make it fifty."Then he asked another, "And how much do you owe?" He replied, "A hundred containers of wheat." He said to him, "Take your bill and make it eighty."And his master commended the dishonest manager because he had acted shrewdly; for the children of this age are more shrewd in dealing with their own generation than are the children of light."

Bible Quotation For Today/God gave us eternal life, and this life is in his Son. Whoever has the Son has life; whoever does not have the Son of God does not have life."
First Letter of John 05/01-12: "Everyone who believes that Jesus is the Christ has been born of God, and everyone who loves the parent loves the child. By this we know that we love the children of God, when we love God and obey his commandments. For the love of God is this, that we obey his commandments. And his commandments are not burdensome, for whatever is born of God conquers the world. And this is the victory that conquers the world, our faith. Who is it that conquers the world but the one who believes that Jesus is the Son of God? This is the one who came by water and blood, Jesus Christ, not with the water only but with the water and the blood. And the Spirit is the one that testifies, for the Spirit is the truth. There are three that testify: the Spirit and the water and the blood, and these three agree. If we receive human testimony, the testimony of God is greater; for this is the testimony of God that he has testified to his Son. Those who believe in the Son of God have the testimony in their hearts. Those who do not believe in God have made him a liar by not believing in the testimony that God has given concerning his Son. And this is the testimony: God gave us eternal life, and this life is in his Son. Whoever has the Son has life; whoever does not have the Son of God does not have life."

LCCC Latest analysis, editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 25-26/15
Lebanese cabinet meeting on trash crisis fails/By Staff Writer/Al Arabiya/August 25/15
Where security forces went wrong at #YouStink/Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/August 25/15
There’s Something Rotten in Lebanon/By David Kenner/Foreign Policy/August 25/15
Who were the “infiltrators” at Beirut’s #YouStink protests/Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/August 25/15
Will the rubbish demonstrators bring the Lebanese state down/Mohamed Chebarro/AQl Arabiya/August 25/15
Iran’s policy in the Persian Gulf region – ‘charm’ offensive alongside terror/By HADAS MAMAN/J.Post/August 25/15
Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed: Saudi Arabia Must Stop Relying On Easy Oil Money And Promote Educational, Economic Reforms To Diversify Its Sources Of Income/MEMRI/August 25/15
Mass Immigration and the Undoing of Europe/Vijeta Uniyal/Gatestone Institute/August 25, 2015
Turkey’s ISIS problem/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/August 25/15
Tears in Syria’s Douma and Greece’s Kos/Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/August 25/15
Iran deal goes from risky to farcical/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/August 25/15
What Abbas's PLO Resignation Means/Ghaith al-Omari/Washington Institute/August 25, 2015
Will the Obama Administration Implement the Stringent Sanctions Authorized Under the Iran Agreement/Patrick Clawson/Washington Institute/August 25, 2015
Half of Jerusalem's Palestinians Would Prefer Israeli to Palestinian Citizenship/David Pollock/Washington Institute/August 25/2015

LCCC Bulletin titles for the Lebanese Related News published on August 25-26/15
Lebanese cabinet meeting on trash crisis fails
Where security forces went wrong at #YouStink
There’s Something Rotten in Lebanon
Who were the “infiltrators” at Beirut’s #YouStink protests?
Will the rubbish demonstrators bring the Lebanese state down?
Govt. Cancels Waste Disposal Bids, to Set up Temporary Dump in Akkar despite Hizbullah, FPM Withdrawal
Salam Adamant to Implement Cabinet Decisions
Mustaqbal Says Some 'Infiltrated' Peaceful Demos to Send 'Message of Intimidation'
Change and Reform Accuses Salam of Usurping President's Jurisdiction on Decrees
Hizbullah Demands End to Waste Disposal 'Farce,' Calls for 'Reasonable' Solutions
Beirut Separation Wall Removed 24 Hours after Installment
Minor Scuffles as Protesters Rally in Riad al-Solh for 4th Day
Security Members and Civilians Interrogated over Weekend Demos
Report: Al-Rahi to Launch Initiative to 'Salvage Lebanon'
Three Dead in Clashes at Ain el-Hilweh
Kahil's Murderers Could Face 15 Years in Prison

Lebanese cabinet meeting on trash crisis fails
By Staff Writer | Al Arabiya/Tuesday, 25 August 2015
An emergency Lebanese cabinet meeting on Tuesday has ended in failure in a bid to address the trash crisis amid street violence and calls for the feuding government to resign. An agreement was reached, however, on cancelling all the tenders from companies to remove the piling garbage that have been previously announced. Al Arabiya News channel’s correspondent in Beirut confirmed the withdrawal of members from Hezbollah and its allies, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Armenian Tashnag Party in Lebanon from the talks on Tuesday. Six ministers from the Hezbollah group and its allies withdrew four hours into the meeting. Foreign Minister Gibran Bassil said he was also pulling out because of a "theater" being performed with regards to the trash issue, according to the Associated Press.
Beirut-based activists from the "You Stink" campaign held two large rallies over the weekend and a smaller march on Monday over uncollected rubbish, reflecting long-simmering anger about government incompetence and political corruption. Protest organizers have called on Lebanese at home and abroad to join them in a large rally on Saturday.
Lebanese activists chant slogans during an anti-government protest in front the main Lebanese government building, downtown Beirut, Lebanon. (AP)Ministers arrived in cars at the heavily guarded Serail Palace on Tuesday and began their meeting. Workers erected concrete blast walls around the building on Monday, which protesters quickly covered with colorful anti-government graffiti. On Sunday, Prime Minister Tammam Salam threatened to resign as public discontent brought thousands into the streets. The protests that initially started peacefully over the weekend descended into violence after clashes between police and protesters that wounded scores. Lebanon's army commander General Jean Kahwaji said late on Monday the armed forces would protect any peaceful demonstrations but would not tolerate "security violators or infiltrators" who sought to sow "sedition and chaos."Protest organizers have blamed the violence on troublemakers whom they say are connected to rival sectarian parties. The U.N. special coordinator for Lebanon on Monday urged "maximum restraint" by all sides.The protest campaign, which has mobilized independently of the big sectarian parties that dominate Lebanese politics, blames political feuding and corruption for the failure to resolve a crisis that has left piles of uncollected garbage stinking in the scorching sun in recent weeks. The cabinet and parliament are deadlocked, politicians have been unable to agree on a new president for more than a year while Syria's war next door has aggravated sectarian tensions and driven more than one million refugees into the country. Behind the deadlock is the power struggle between the two political blocs who are divided over Syria - the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies including Christian politician Michel Aoun, and the Saudi-backed mainly Sunni pro-Western Future Movement led by politician Saad al-Hariri and his allies. The Salam cabinet, formed last year with the blessing of regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, has avoided a complete vacuum in the executive arm. It brings together Hariri's Future movement, Shi'ite Hezbollah and Christians.
But it has struggled to take even basic decisions and tension in cabinet has escalated over appointments in the security agencies and army. The trash crisis began last month when the main refuse tip for Beirut was closed, with no ready alternative. While collection has resumed in some areas, no lasting solution has been found.[With Reuters and the Associated Press]

Where security forces went wrong at #YouStink
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/Published: 25/08/2015
The tear gas chemicals will by now have ceased burning away at eye, throat, and lung tissue, but the deep purple bruises of rubber bullet strikes are still tattooed on the torsos of hundreds of Lebanese men and women, at least one of whom remains in life-threatening condition after being struck on the head. Many of those present in downtown Beirut on Saturday described what unfolded as the most severe and disproportionate use of force by Lebanese state security agencies against unarmed civilians they had seen in their lives. Demonstrators attending the anti-government #YouStink rally, ranging from elderly and disabled citizens to young children, were met abruptly with rubber bullets, tear gas, water cannons, and even live rounds fired into the air. A greater degree of restraint was shown at a follow-up rally the next evening, when a small minority of protestors sparked clashes with riot police, who responded with water cannons and tear gas. Still, over 400 injuries in all were reported over the weekend, and there is general agreement among activists, human rights NGOs, and even some politicians, including Prime Minister Tammam Salam, that seriously excessive force was used by security agencies.
“Honestly, what happened on Saturday was shocking,” Nadim Houry, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Middle East and North Africa division, told NOW. “I was there and personally witnessed a lot of it. The violent security response was completely disconnected from what was happening on the ground. This was a violation of basic human rights norms and UN principles [and] goes against the basic pact in Lebanon of respecting freedom of expression and assembly.”Indeed, the response may well have even been in violation of security forces’ own internal rules and regulations. Security sector reform specialist Dr. Drew Mikhael, who has worked with various Middle Eastern police departments, including Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces (ISF), told NOW that page 13 of the ISF’s code of conduct includes the following stipulations:
“Police members will not resort to the use of force unless it is necessary, proportionate and after exhausting all possible non-violent means, within the minimum extent needed to accomplish the mission.”“Police members will resort to the use of firearms only when it is absolutely necessary and according to the law; such use will be commensurate with the scale of danger and will happen only after exhausting all other possible means.”According to Mikhael, the latter paragraph applies to “all use of force, not just firearms.” Consequently, “considering the current narratives of the events, it is very hard to justify the level of force used […] throwing ineffectual plastic bottles is patently not commensurate with tear gas and water cannons.”
“Moreover,” Mikhael wrote in an email to NOW, “was there any attempt to solve the situation using non-violent means? If the facts stemming from the weekend are proven correct (ideally through public inquiry), this incident counts as a very serious infraction of the ISF code of conduct.” NOW was unable to reach ISF press spokesman Maj. Joseph Msallem for comment, and ISF Human Rights Officer Gen. Ziad Kaedbey said he could not comment without prior written permission from ISF chief Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Basbous.
Asked by NOW what a state response to the #YouStink demonstrations in line with international norms would have looked like, Mikhael cited the general approach adopted by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), whom he said was “considered by world experts as one of the most accountable and transparent police services in the world.” Faced with the weekend’s rallies, the PSNI would first of all have been in contact with the organizers in advance of the event, and would remain in “constant dialogue” with them throughout.
Second, if it was deemed necessary – and legal – to remove demonstrators from Riad al-Solh Square, clear warning would have been given well in advance, whether “through loudspeakers or large signs.” Those choosing to remain in the Square after being ordered to leave would then be “recorded on video and ID’d for prosecution at a later date” – not confronted with firearms. Thirdly, because more than one security agency was involved (the ISF, the army, and the parliamentary guard), overall command would have been given in advance to one institution only. This would have averted one of the key accountability questions that has surfaced since Saturday; namely, who actually gave the orders to shoot?
An official investigation announced Sunday by State Prosecutor Samir Hammoud will attempt to answer that question, among others. Houry, however, worries the investigation may not be as rigorous, objective, and far-reaching as he and other human rights observers would hope. “We need an independent investigation that sheds light on exactly what happened, and also explains who gave the orders, who was involved, and holds people accountable,” Houry told NOW. “What I’m concerned about is traditionally in this country, when something bad happens, they launch an investigation and then we never heard back from it […] is it going to be independent? Is it going to go till the end?”
“Or is it just another morphine shot to get people to stay quiet about it?”

There’s Something Rotten in Lebanon
By David Kenner/Foreign Policy/ August 25/15
BEIRUT — By any standard, the Lebanese government is worth protesting against.
Its leaders regularly subvert democracy: Parliament has unconstitutionally extended its term twice, even as parliamentarians benefit from a generous array of perks they voted for themselves. The country has been without a president for 15 months, as parliament has failed to elect a new one, and it has not passed an official budget since 2005. Basic services are crumbling: The country suffers from hours of power cuts each day, and there is an increasingly severe water shortage.
Roughly 1.5 million Syrian refugees are in the country, with many living in deplorable conditions, and the government’s only response has been to stop the U.N. registration of new refugees and to try to block Syrians’ entry into the country. Oh, and let’s not forget the persistent clashes between Hezbollah and the Islamic State, as well as other assorted Sunni jihadi groups, along the border with Syria — an existential crisis on Lebanon’s doorstep that the state is powerless to affect.
But it took a crisis over garbage to focus public anger in Lebanon. After the closure of a major landfill in June, tens of thousands of tons of trash piled up in the streets of Beirut. As the garbage piles grew, municipalities increasingly turned to illegal dumping and burning trash to alleviate the problem. In the neighborhood of Hamra, the trash piles got so large at one point that they partially blocked a major intersection; sanitation workers covered the trash in a thin white dust meant to repel insects, but which did little to mask the smell in the summer heat.“The government is hurting everyone who is living in Lebanon,” said Assaad Thebian, a spokesman for a protest group calling itself “You Stink,” which has organized regular demonstrations against the situation. “People are smelling the trash. The trash is blocking the highways and the roads. It shows the government’s lack of ability to create proper solutions for public crises.”
On Sunday, Aug. 23, You Stink organized a demonstration in downtown Beirut in which thousands of people took to the streets to protest the situation. Many demonstrators appropriated chants from the 2011 Arab Spring protests, calling for revolution. The event, however, ended in chaos: Some demonstrators clashed with the security forces, while others hurled Molotov cocktails; the police responded with water cannons and rubber bullets in street fights that left more than 400 people injured.
The struggles of this nascent protest movement highlight the central paradox of politics here. Lebanon has one of the weakest governments in the entire Middle East, yet it has managed to subvert popular demands for reform more effectively than virtually all of the surrounding Arab states. As countries like Egypt, Syria, and Libya — states with functional institutions and feared security forces — have all been profoundly changed by protests and war over the past four years, Beirut has somehow remained immune from popular unrest.
It’s not as if the Lebanese government is ruthlessly efficient at defending the status quo. Its response to the protest movement has been typically floundering. On Monday, authorities built a wall to protect the Grand Serail, where the prime minister’s office is housed — only to tear it down on Tuesday after protesters decorated it with art lampooning the government. On Monday, Environment Minister Mohammed Machnouk declared a “happy ending” to the crisis, while announcing the names of the companies that had won new waste-management contracts; the government canceled the winning bids on Tuesday.
The real challenge to the protest movement comes not from the government, but in organizing a common front that stretches across Lebanon’s religious and class divides. It’s already a struggle: Organizers blamed the clashes on “infiltrators” intent on disrupting the peaceful nature of the demonstration. You Stink’s Facebook page posted a video of hundreds of young men entering the protest en masse and referred to them as “hooligans” who purposefully incited violence against the security forces.
“They really wanted to damage the demonstration,” Thebian said of the protesters who clashed with police. “They want to move the demonstration into a sectarian conflict, which we totally refuse.”
Thebian’s comment echoes fears that some demonstrators hope to use the protests as leverage in the country’s traditional political game, rather than to build a truly secular movement. Some activists and political parties have seized on the fact that the “infiltrators” who clashed with the police appeared to be Shiite — noting their religious tattoos and necklaces — as proof that they were sent by the Amal Movement, a party allied with Hezbollah, to hijack the protest. Amal has denied any involvement in the clashes. The Lebanese Forces, a Christian party, published a post on its website highlighting Shiite chants at the protest and accusing the youth of sectarian motives.
The controversy provides a case study in how Lebanon’s political system short-circuits reform efforts.
The controversy provides a case study in how Lebanon’s political system short-circuits reform efforts. The country’s state institutions may not command much respect, but its diverse political parties are legitimate in the eyes of their supporters and are ruthlessly efficient at playing on their members’ fears.
Lebanon’s politicians are not above sending angry youth to undermine a peaceful protest — most of them survived the country’s brutal civil war and have doggedly resisted threats to their power for the quarter-century since. At the same time, the fact that a protester had a tattoo with a specifically Shiite message doesn’t mean that the protesters were directed by Shiite politicians, any more than the demonstrators wearing cross necklaces were under orders by Christian political leaders. A previous demonstration on Saturday also descended into violence without any accusations that “infiltrators” had instigated the clashes. But regardless of the political leaders’ machinations, the far more potent force is Lebanese citizens’ own fear of losing ground in the sectarian battles. The You Stink movement published a frustrated-sounding Facebook post on Tuesday detailing how it had been accused of serving as a pawn for everyone from the predominantly Sunni Future Movement, to Hezbollah, to foreign powers. The accusations highlight the fact that politics in Beirut is seen as a zero-sum game: If parties belonging to one sect are gaining, the others must be losing.
You Stink is hoping to avoid such sectarian logic. It called off a scheduled demonstration on Monday to regroup, and it announced that the protests would resume on Aug. 29. With several days to prepare, organizers believe they can keep the protests peaceful and on message.“We’re going to have better organization; we’re going to have better communication and very clear demands, so we protect ourselves,” promised Thebian.
It’s not going to be an easy task. The garbage has been piling up in the streets of Beirut for a few months, but the rotten rules of Lebanon’s political game have been in place for decades.

Who were the “infiltrators” at Beirut’s #YouStink protests?
Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/Published: 25/08/201
At least 20 people were injured Sunday in Beirut during a second day of clashes between police and protesters angry about the Lebanese government
When the clashes started on Saturday they were nowhere to be seen. While the teargas grenades fell on the street in Riadh el-Solh Square in front of the Lebanese government and the water cannons sprayed the human wall of the #YouStink movement, the protesters saw only familiar faces around them. This was, after all, Lebanon: everybody knows everyone. “It was just us, the activists. We were very confused, running around,” protestor Yasmina told NOW. Yasmina spent the weekend in downtown Beirut protesting against the trash crisis. The alleged infiltrators started showing up at around midnight on Saturday, when the protests had calmed down and activists were trying to regroup in Riad el-Solh Square. The protesters of the #YouStink movement had a sit-in similar to the Ukrainian Orange revolution in mind: a tent village in Beirut’s administrative center. “Suddenly they were there. We wanted to bring tents and sleep there,” said Tina, another protestor. “But they had tents of their own — three to six tents, and they were sitting there, having arghileh. Then, at around 2:00 am, while I was walking home, I saw a group of them planning to throw some garbage bags at the police. I don’t know where they had gotten the bags. I didn’t see what happened next, but I think they gave up on the idea.”
These men were at the heart of the clashes with the security forces in central Beirut last Sunday. The #YouStink protest had been drowned in tear gas and rubber bullets on Saturday night. The social movement that organized the demonstration called for a calm and peaceful sit-in, condemning the harsh crackdown by security forces. On Sunday night, however, after Prime Minister Tammam Salam’s speech, masked young men showed up and attempted to remove the barbwire fence between the police and the demonstrators, provoking the security forces into a clash. Journalists at the scene called them “infiltrators.” The National News Agency correspondent on the scene said, “Infiltrators among the demonstrators in Central Beirut are throwing Molotov cocktails at security forces.” Some of the protesters called them “uncivilized thugs” from the Shiyah and Khandaq al-Ghamiq neighborhoods of Beirut, accusing Amal Movement of sending its supporters to discredit the #YouStink movement.
A tale of two crowds
The protests had been peaceful until the infiltrators showed up — a compact and shirtless group that pushed through the crowd to make their way towards the security forces. Many of them wore the sword of Ali around their necks and had “313” [the 313 followers of Imam Mahdi, who in Shia Islam are prophesied to aid him when he rises again] tattooed on their arms and backs. “It was obvious that they were up to something,” Yasmina said. The #YouStink protesters stood aside and let them pass.
Jean Pierre, another #YouStink protester, told NOW that the infiltrators seemed well organized and determined to cause trouble. “They arrived at around 7:30 pm, all young, many were teenagers. Half of them had their faces covered with a T-shirt or colored scarf,” he said. “They pushed away the people who had been there before. They were sticking together as one group; they did not interact with us, the protesters. They were like a monolith, very close to each other. They looked like they were heading to a battlefield.”
“They were taking over,” Yasmina said. “They were different than us; we knew they were not the people who were there with us getting beaten up on Saturday. We stayed away, moved to the other side and left them to do whatever they were doing.”
Jean Pierre, however, witnessed something more and it worried him. The new protestors were chanting “down with the system” and cursing profusely. He said one of the boys in the group the shouted, apparently by accident, “God, Nasrallah and all Dahiyeh.” “The rest of the group yelled at him to shut up. This slogan was not supposed to be chanted there.”Agitators and infiltrators, or simply a mixed movement?
Some #YouStink activists said that the young men causing trouble at the protest were angered by slogans against Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri, and actually threatened demonstrators who chanted against him. Their insignia, their tattoos, and the graffiti they left behind, such as “Mahdi is coming 313,” are characteristic of Amal Movement supporters. A protester downtown on Sunday also said they had sprayed slogans like “Independence. Thief. Beirut is ours” and “A thug died. Your turn is coming” on pictures of former Sunni Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Emir Faqih, a #YouStink organizer, told An-Nahar he and his colleagues had watched the infiltrators closely and that they seemed to be Amal Movement supporters.
The Amal Movement dismissed “media claims” that “members of the movement tried to spark a riot” as “devoid of truth” and a “blatant attempt to incite to sedition.”
Chasing common ground
Eli, another #YouStink protestor, said that many people were wrong to believe that only the so-called infiltrators had fought with the police, adding that the agitators did not stay in the square for long. “They showed up several times. In the afternoon, at around five or six, they came and chanted something related to football and then left quickly. They came back at 7.30 banging plastic bottles on the asphalt and started the clash with the security forces. But they only stayed for half an hour and then disappeared. The clashes were continued by the #YouStink protesters, just like on Saturday,” he said. He also said that not all the young men who wore the sword of Ali necklaces and had 313 tattoos were part of the agitators or infiltrators. “There were many people from Shiyah and Khandaq al-Ghamiq who were there with us on both days. They are part of the movement; they’re not infiltrators.”
Yasmina also said that after the clash started “everybody got very excited” and the two groups merged. “At a certain point, we weren’t sure anymore who was fighting the security forces.”
The #YouStink campaign faced a deadlock after the clashes on Sunday. On Monday afternoon, at a press conference, the movement called for new protests on Saturday, 29 August, at 6:00 pm. However, many activists continued to protest in Riad el-Solh on Monday and Tuesday. Some of the #YouStink protesters also accusedtheir fellow demonstrators of sectarianism and of labeling some of the movement members as “uncivilized thugs” because they came from poor neighborhoods.
“I think we should embrace everything and everyone and find a common ground,” said Yasmina. “We’re not going away and they are not going away. We need to sit together and see what everybody’s demands are.

Will the rubbish demonstrators bring the Lebanese state down?
Mohamed Chebarro/AQl Arabiya/Tuesday, 25 August 2015
The anti-government demonstrations that erupted in Beirut in recent days are valid, especially if they are against the failure of an able government to provide basic services for its citizens, and its citizens only. Yet if the angry and semi-violent demonstrators are setting the goal of doing away with the crippled government, then they are consciously or unconsciously doing away with the only institution left working within the Lebanese political divide, and thus threatening existence of the state. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Lebanon has been living in a void for a while now with the lack of an elected president for more than a year. The youth demonstrating outside the government building might be enjoying their first hit at the state, yet they might live to regret it
For over a year now Members of Parliament, some of whom are loyal to Hezbollah and President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, refuse to participate in a parliament session to elect a president unless they are guaranteed that all MPs will vote for General Michel Aoun of the Reform and Change Movement as the new head of state.
The eroded state of Lebanon
The parliament, led by speaker Nabih Berri, has decided that it will only hold a session if two thirds of its members convene. By default and not by design the Unity Government of Tammam Salam is the only guardian of what is left of the eroded state of Lebanon.
Doing away with the Salam government is not impossible for many reasons, but what is the alternative? This government has so far failed to ban the Lebanese Hezbollah from interfering in the Syrian conflict and sending thousands of fighters to prop up the Assad government. So, Lebanon has been breaking its neutrality vis a vis the Syrian conflict. This government and other similar governments have so far failed to govern and failed to provide power for the Lebanese in the summer heat and is failing to agree on a new rubbish dump amongst other issues. Unfortunately, though, this remains the only legitimate institution working in a dysfunctional Lebanon, in a boiling Middle East region from Baghdad to Damascus and from Sanaa to Tripoli. All parties that represented the traditional Lebanese divide have ministers in the government of PM Salam yet they continue to bicker about government priorities.
Hitting the state
The youth demonstrating outside the government building might be enjoying their first hit at the state, yet they might live to regret it. In their innocent drive participating in a demonstration to remove garbage and politicians seen as corrupt, the government might actually fall, and though they are known as a force to reckoned with in Lebanon in this action they provide groups such as Hezbollah and other satellite militias and thugs a golden opportunity to call for a constitutional conference to rebuild the Lebanese system.The call for a new deal for Lebanon has been Hezbollah’s constant desire, and General Aoun is walking into this. The government is the last bastion to prevent a total rethinking of the Lebanese system, as Hezbollah protagonists have long called for a re-distribution of power in Lebanon.
The Taif agreement redesigned the system and the allocation of power between Christians and Muslims. Hezbollah and its Iranian patron are not shy in calling for a total redistribution of power in Lebanon, a third for Shiites, a third for Sunnis and a third for Christians.
This is a formula that needs to be rejected if Lebanon is to remain viable in the future of a Middle East proud of coexistence! It seems that all Lebanese can agree that the current government is under performing due to traditional divisions rendering any political decision void.

Govt. Cancels Waste Disposal Bids, to Set up Temporary Dump in Akkar despite Hizbullah, FPM Withdrawal
Naharnet/August 25/15/The cabinet agreed on Tuesday to cancel the waste management bids that were presented on Monday, during an extraordinary session that witnessed the withdrawal of Hizbullah, Free Patriotic Movement and Tashnag ministers over what Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil described as a “farce.” The government agreed to dedicate 100 million dollars to set up a temporary dump in the impoverished northern region of Akkar. The dump will only be established for three years. The funds will also be used for development projects in the area. The waste management bids will be referred once again to the concerned ministerial committee, said Information Minister Ramzi Jreij after the session. A number of politicians had voiced their rejection of the bids due to their “high prices.” The decision on the elimination of the bids was taken by 16 ministers, but not through a vote, which is the normal course of action that is usually taken, reported LBCI television. Jreij explained that the Hizbullah and FPM ministers withdrew from the session after the agreement on Akkar had been reached. He also revealed that the cabinet's decision to cancel the tenders was based on a recommendation by Environment Minister Mohammed al-Mashnouq, who objected to their high prices. Earlier, Bassil told reporters: "Our withdrawal comes as a result of a farce" on the waste crisis. Hizbullah's Agriculture Minister Hussein al-Hajj Hassan also said: "We withdrew from the cabinet session because most parties insist on not listening to our demands of real partnership."Mashnouq announced on Monday the names of companies that won the bidding to manage trash, describing the process as "transparent" and a "significant achievement."But the move drew criticism from Speaker Nabih Berri, the FPM and other parties. Berri, whose AMAL movement is represented in the cabinet, demanded the “reevaluation” or a “total annulment” of the bids, saying the prices were high. Education Minister Elias Bou Saab, who is one of the FPM representatives in the government, also told local dailies published on Tuesday that the unsealing of the bids is a “big scandal.”He compared the waste crisis to a chicken that lays a golden egg. “If you want to fight it, then you should fight those benefiting from this gold. This is the battle. Either they or the people would win,” he said. The "You Stink" online group has been holding protests against the trash crisis that erupted when the Naameh landfill south of Beirut was closed on July 17. But the protests, which began as peaceful demonstrations, turned violent this weekend. A small group of young men, allegedly thugs, repeatedly tried to tear down a barbed wire fence separating the crowds from the Grand Serail in downtown Beirut. Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq proposed during the cabinet session to transfer the waste to the northern Akkar district in return for carrying out development projects there.
But Bou Saab said he rejected the proposal.

Salam Adamant to Implement Cabinet Decisions
Naharnet/August 25/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam has stressed that decisions taken by the majority of cabinet members will be implemented despite attempts by some parties to obstruct them. “Even in the presence of a president, the Constitution grants him a time limit to review the decisions. They will be implemented when the deadline expires,” Salam told al-Akhbar daily in an interview published on Tuesday. Salam's remarks were seen as a direct response to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's insistence that decrees issued by the cabinet after garnering the signatures of 18 ministers are not legal. Aoun, who argues that the decrees infringe on the powers of the Christian president, held on Monday phone conversations with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, Amin Gemayel of the Kataeb Party and Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh. In the interview with al-Akhbar, Salam said that the rival parties should resolve their differences outside the cabinet. “Settle your scores somewhere else and not in this government,” Salam told the parties represented in the cabinet. The PM told al-Akhbar that on several occasions, he gave time for the rivals to reach settlements. “But no one is responding.”When Baabda Palace became vacant “we agreed on unanimity inside the cabinet to avoid the obstruction of productivity … Then we agreed for consensus to be the basis of the government’s work,” said Salam. “But this also drowned us in paralysis,” he stated. “Are we able to remain in this paralysis that is being imposed on us?” Salam asked. “If I will continue to assume my responsibilities, then I should practice them and not observe them,” he said.

Mustaqbal Says Some 'Infiltrated' Peaceful Demos to Send 'Message of Intimidation'
Naharnet/August 25/15/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc charged Tuesday that some political parties tried to hijack Sunday's civil society protest to send a “message of intimidation” to al-Mustaqbal movement and its allies. “Freedom of expression is a legitimate right for all Lebanese which is protected by the Constitution … but this right must be practiced while abiding by the laws,” said the bloc in a statement issued after its weekly meeting. It acknowledged that “the peaceful demos that were called for by civil society activists and groups to demand a solution to the garbage crisis are in principle legitimate and justified, especially that the trash problem has aggravated due to the government's shortcomings in addressing this vital issue.”But Mustaqbal warned that “this right to peaceful expression was quickly exploited” by “groups pushed by political and partisan agendas that resorted to violent methods to veer the democratic and peaceful expression off its course and drag the country into the 'well-known unknown.'”It cautioned that the said political parties are seeking to “topple the political system and obstruct the work of government and parliament and undermine the last functioning constitutional institutions.”Accordingly, the bloc described the alleged “exploitation” attempt as a “message of intimidation” from those who “were behind these violations.”Throwing its “full support” behind the government and highlighting “the need that it continues to shoulder its responsibilities” amid the presidential vacuum, Mustaqbal noted that the “real solution for ending Lebanon's problems” would be “the speedy election of a president.”Earlier on Tuesday, the cabinet ended an acrimonious meeting with no solution to the unprecedented trash crisis that has sparked violent protests and calls for the government's resignation. The cabinet meeting came as people continued to gather in central Beirut for demonstrations that began over a trash crisis but evolved into an outlet for deep-seated frustrations over government impotence. Some organizers of Sunday's demo at Beirut's Riad al-Solh Square had blamed “thugs sent by political parties” for the eruption of violence. More than 100 protesters and policemen were injured in fierce clashes on Saturday and Sunday.

Change and Reform Accuses Salam of Usurping President's Jurisdiction on Decrees
Naharnet/August 25/15/The Change and Reform parliamentary bloc on Tuesday accused Prime Minister Tammam Salam of infringing on the Christian president's jurisdiction in the issuance of so-called presidential decrees, hours after the bloc's ministers and their Hizbullah allies walked out of a tense cabinet session. “The decrees fall under the jurisdiction of the president and it is the only jurisdiction left for the president (after the Taef Accord) and the premier is infringing on it,” Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil said after the bloc's weekly meeting. Even “normal decrees require the signatures of the 24 ministers or all the ministerial blocs in the event of a presidential vacuum and we won't accept the usurpation of the president's last remaining jurisdiction,” Bassil stressed.He noted that consensus in the cabinet is a “constitutional stipulation” amid a presidential vacuum. “Anything else would be an attempt to undermine partnership,” the FM warned. Turning to the unprecedented waste management crisis, Bassil noted that “it would've been useful had we exerted more efforts in 2010, together with the people, to avoid this fabricated garbage crisis.” He pointed out that the crisis is being “exploited politically” with the aim of pressuring the Free Patriotic Movement. “Developing Akkar to exploit it in the waste management issue is an attempt to underestimate people's intelligence,” he said. Addressing civil society protesters who have been demonstrating against the government for weeks now over the trash problem, Bassil said that “launching corruption accusations against everyone does not benefit those demanding an end to corruption,” noting that the FPM had exerted efforts over the past years to avoid the current garbage crisis. During an extraordinary cabinet session earlier in the day, the cabinet agreed to annul the results of the waste management tender that were announced on Monday, after they were rejected by both activists and parties represented in the government. The government also agreed to dedicate 100 million dollars to set up a temporary dump in the impoverished northern region of Akkar. The dump will only be established for three years. The funds will also be used for development projects in the area. The waste management bids will be referred once again to the concerned ministerial committee, said Information Minister Ramzi Jreij after the session. A number of politicians had voiced their rejection of the bids due to their “high prices.”

Hizbullah Demands End to Waste Disposal 'Farce,' Calls for 'Reasonable' Solutions
Naharnet/August 25/15/Hizbullah rejected on Tuesday the bids to tackle the waste management crisis, deeming the proposed prices as a “scandal.”It said in a statement: “We call an end for the farce of the negative consequences of the crisis and demand reasonable solutions that would tackle the transitional phase ahead of reaching the strategic plan.”“The waste crisis clearly indicates who is responsible for it,” added the party. “The size of the environmental and social disaster was demonstrated by the popular explosion,” it said in reference to weekend protests led by the You Stink civil society campaign. “The trash crisis is one of the signs of the accumulating corruption, which would not have reached such a level had a proposal on the issue, made in 1997, been adopted,” said Hizbullah without elaborating. Lebanon was plunged in a trash disposal crisis after the closure of the Naameh landfill in July. The landfill was shut without the establishment of an alternative, resulting in the overflowing of waste at dumpsters throughout the country as the cabinet struggled to find a permanent solution to the problem. The cabinet agreed on Tuesday to dedicate 100 million dollars to set up a temporary dump in the northern region of Akkar. Tenders for the waste management were announced on Monday, but they were rejected by a number of officials, who slammed their high prices. The cabinet later canceled the bids in favor of setting up the Akkar dump.

Beirut Separation Wall Removed 24 Hours after Installment
Naharnet/August 25/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam gave instructions on Tuesday to remove a concrete wall installed by the authorities in downtown Beirut a day after violent protests. The wall was erected on Monday at Riad al-Solh Square near the Grand Serail after large violent anti-government protests shook the area on Sunday. Following Salam's decisions, several protesters were seen climbing and sitting on the wall holding Lebanese flags. The wall's erection had drawn sharp criticism with graffiti artists converging on the area to express their resentment to government inaction. The artists were quick to draw graffiti satirizing political parties and accusing politicians of being “monsters behind the wall.”Some social media activists likened it to the Berlin Wall and others to the separation barrier built by Israel in the West Bank.Some dubbed it a wall of shame. “It took Israel years before it created that wall of disgrace to isolate the Palestinians. It took the Lebanese government two days to create a wall against its own people,” said a man on Facebook.
“The ugliest thing is to create a wall separating the authorities and the people,” said another. The activists also called via Facebbok and Twitter for holding Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq accountable for ordering the wall's erection. But they were quick to welcome Salam's decision on Tuesday. The large protests erupted on Saturday over anger about the heaps of trash accumulating in Beirut's streets after the closure of the Naameh landfill more than a month ago.But they turned violent on Sunday when thugs infiltrated peaceful demonstrators and clashed with police.

Minor Scuffles as Protesters Rally in Riad al-Solh for 4th Day
Agence France Presse/aharnet/August 25/15/Large crowds rallied Tuesday at Beirut's Riad al-Solh Square for a fourth day to denounce the government's performance, in a protest that remained largely peaceful despite minor scuffles with security forces. Two people were injured as security forces used batons to push away protesters after some participants described as “infiltrators” hurled rocks and “molotov cocktails” at police, the Internal Security Forces and state-run National News Agency said. Organizers from the “We Want Accountability” movement immediately intervened to calm the situation, forming a human wall between security forces and protesters. The movement ended its sit-in at 9:00 pm, announcing that it would not be responsible for any person who remains in the square after 9:00 pm. It also announced that it would return to the square on Wednesday. Protesters had carried Lebanese flags and banners expressing their anger and frustration over the government's performance in several vital issues. Some of them chanted slogans demanding “the fall of the regime” and a “revolution against corruption.”The protest came as Prime Minister Tammam Salam ordered the removal of a concrete blast wall at the site, which Lebanese had dubbed the "wall of shame."The wall was erected after protests on Saturday and Sunday turned violent. The crowds swelled on Tuesday, despite the "You Stink" campaign which was behind the street protests scheduling its next official demonstration for Saturday. Protests also took place in Hasbaya, Baalbek and Nabatiyeh, calling for greater accountability. At the weekend, Salam acknowledged protesters' frustrations and warned that his government risked becoming irrelevant if it could not address the public's concerns. "We're heading towards collapse if things continue as they are," he cautioned. But a cabinet meeting on Tuesday was unable to resolve the social issue that has united protesters for a rare display of non-sectarian anger. It was intended to discuss companies qualified to bid for new waste removal contracts.
The list had drawn fire from activists who said the firms were linked to political figures and were seeking exorbitant fees. Lebanon already pays some of the world's highest per-ton waste collection rates, and media said the companies sought to raise prices even further. The core of the crisis, which erupted after the July 17 closure of the landfill serving Beirut and its surroundings, remains unaddressed. When the Naameh landfill closed, the government failed to identify sites for new landfills or alternative arrangements. Trash began piling up until local municipalities found temporary solutions -- dumping in empty lots, river beds and even forests. Tuesday's cabinet statement made no mention of potential landfill solutions. But it said $100 million (around 87 million euros) of development money was being allocated to the northern Akkar region, which some politicians have proposed as a potential landfill site. Media said that even after new waste management contracts were approved, it could take up to six months for collection and disposal to begin. On Monday, leaders of "You Stink" said they were regrouping after the weekend violence. They blamed the clashes on "troublemakers," but also acknowledged that they needed time to organize better. They called a new demonstration for Saturday night against Lebanon's "corrupt political class."Lebanon has been without a president for more than a year, and parliament has twice extended its own mandate since the last elections in 2009. The country has long suffered chronic electricity and water problems and has seen its resources stretched yet further by an influx of more than a million Syrian refugees.

Security Members and Civilians Interrogated over Weekend Demos
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 25/15/Military Prosecutor Judge Dani al Zaani kicked off interrogations with security members and civilians who were arrested against the backdrop of the demonstrations in Downtown Beirut that turned into a war zone over the weekend leaving several injured, al-Joumhouria daily reported. Some detainees were released after it became clear that they were not involved in the riots or attacks on the security forces, the National News Agency reported. “Investigations were kicked off with scores of security members, mainly the anti-riot police, who engaged in a confrontation with undisciplined demonstrators from behind both sides of the barbed wire,” informed sources told the daily on Tuesday. “Probes have also included seven civilians who had major roles in orchestrating the riots and are still under arrest for investigations,” the sources stated. They added that the investigations are taking a very fast pace in order to conclude the file as soon as possible. A forensic doctor has been tasked to check the injured individuals that has shown rubber bullets injuries. On the other hand, related authorities said they received detailed reports from security forces factions who were on the ground during Saturday and Sunday demonstrations, stating that more than 100 military members were injured. Anger about the heaps of trash accumulating in Beirut's streets boiled over this week with thousands protesting in the street against a government so dysfunctional it can't hold elections or pick a president, much less deliver basic services. The "You Stink" garbage campaign called for protests which began as peaceful demonstrations but turned violent this weekend. A small group of young men repeatedly tried to tear down a barbed wire fence in Riad al-Solh square separating the crowds from the Lebanese government building, which houses the prime minister's office and the Cabinet. On Saturday and Sunday night, police fired tear gas and water cannons at the protesters, battling them in the streets of Beirut in dramatic clashes. Sporadic gunfire could be heard in the street. The two days of chaos wounded dozens.

Report: Al-Rahi to Launch Initiative to 'Salvage Lebanon'
Naharnet/August 25/15/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi is expected to launch an initiative to stop the growing political crisis from spiraling out of control, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Tuesday. Al-Rahi is scheduled to return to the seat of the Maronite church in Bkirki from his summer residence in Diman after canceling a trip abroad, said the newspaper. It expected the patriarch to ask Maronite leaders to agree on the election of a president during a summit in Bkirki. Al-Rahi will seek to urge them to assume their patriotic responsibilities because he believes that the political crisis is the result of the vacuum in the country's top Christian post, said the report. According to al-Joumhouria, al-Rahi will hold contacts with top Lebanese officials, whom he also blames for the Baabda vacuum. Bishop Boulos Sayah told the daily that “Bkirki does not stand idle and will do all it can to salvage Lebanon.” The country has been without a president for more than a year, despite nearly 30 attempts by parliament to pick a new one. Parliament is not functioning because some lawmakers insist on electing a president first. The disputes between the rival parties have also caused paralysis in the government.

Jumblat Deems Waste Management Tenders as 'Major Scandal'
Naharnet/August 25/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat condemned on Tuesday the bids presented to tackle waste management in Lebanon, describing as “astronomical” the prices that were submitted. He said in a statement: “The bids are a major scandal and they should be reviewed in accordance with new rules that take into consideration the treasury.” Moreover, he denied allegations saying that he has sought “for months to reap his financial share of the tenders.”“I renew once again my assertion that I am not linked to any partnership in the tenders,” Jumblat declared. “Repeatedly dragging my name into this issue is aimed at misleading the public,” he stressed. Environment Minister Mohammed al-Mashnouq unveiled on Monday the names of the companies that won bids for waste management in Lebanon. He announced that it is now up to the cabinet to study the bids and announce the names of the winning proposals. These proposals have however come under fire by a number of politicians, who criticized the high prices, including Speaker Nabih Berri, who demanded their “reevaluation” or “total annulment.”The cabinet convened on Tuesday to tackle the bids.

Three Dead in Clashes at Ain el-Hilweh
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 25/15/Three people were killed in clashes overnight and into Tuesday morning between rival armed groups in Ain al-Hilweh, Lebanon's largest Palestinian refugee camp, near the southern city of Sidon, medical sources told Agence France Presse. The fighting between the Jund al-Sham Islamist group and members of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement prompted hundreds of residents to flee Ain el-Hilweh and shelter in nearby mosques. Medical sources said at least 35 people were wounded, with ambulances unable to enter the camp to retrieve other injured people because of the heavy clashes. At least two of the dead were Fatah members, one of them an officer, Palestinian sources said. The identity of the third person was unclear. The state-run National News Agency said only two people were killed. The sound of fierce gunfire and rocket fire could be heard in neighboring Sidon, and the Lebanese army reinforced its positions at the four main entrances to Ain el-Hilweh. It was allowing those able to reach the entrances to leave the camp, but preventing anyone from entering, an AFP correspondent said. The clashes first broke out on Saturday after two Fatah members were killed during an apparent assassination attempt by Islamists on Ashraf al-Armoushi, a leading Fatah official. They continued sporadically throughout the weekend. But around noon Tuesday, Palestinian factions reached an agreement to hold an immediate ceasefire. Tensions have been running high for months between them and Islamists inside Ain el-Hilweh, an impoverished and overcrowded camp. By long-standing convention, the army does not enter Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, leaving the factions themselves to handle security. That has created lawless areas in many camps, and Ain el-Hilweh has gained notoriety as a refuge for extremists and fugitives. But the camp is also home to more than 54,000 registered Palestinian refugees who have been joined in recent years by thousands of Palestinians fleeing the fighting in Syria. More than 450,000 Palestinians are registered in Lebanon with the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees UNRWA. Most live in squalid conditions in 12 official refugee camps and face a variety of legal restrictions, including on their employment.

Kahil's Murderers Could Face 15 Years in Prison
Naharnet/August 25/15/The two suspects charged with the murder of Major Rabih Kahil could face up to 15 years in jail, reported LBCI television on Tuesday. Military Examining Magistrate Judge Riyad Abou Ghida issued an indictment against the two suspects on Tuesday. If convicted, Elie and Hisham Daou could face up to 15 years in prison.Hisham Daou was charged with opening fire at Kahil, hitting him in the leg four times. Elie Daou is charged with interfering in the accident. Kahil died in hospital after succumbing to the wounds sustained in the shooting that took place in Bdadoun. The dispute erupted after the two suspects arrived in a car and asked Kahil to leave the area, although he identified himself as an army officer. A fistfight ensued before one of the men, Hisham Daou, opened fire at Kahil from a weapon equipped with a silencer.

Israel should be annihilated, Iranian official says
J.Post/August 25/15/Contrary to remarks made by visiting UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond an Iranian official denied on Tuesday that his government's policy towards Israel has changed and said that the Zionist regime should be annihilated. "Our positions against the usurper Zionist regime have not changed at all; Israel should be annihilated and this is our ultimate slogan," the Iranian Parliament Speaker's Adviser for International Affairs Hossein Sheikholeslam was quoted as saying by Iran's Fars news agency. After opening the British Embassy in Tehran, the British foreign secretary said the Iranian government had displayed a more nuanced approach than its predecessor to a long-running conflict with Israel, adding that Tehran would be judged on its actions, not its words. "What we're looking for is behavior from Iran, not only towards Israel but towards other players in the region, that slowly rebuilds their sense that Iran is not a threat to them," Hammond said. Sheikholeslam also cited and dismissed a statement Hammond made on his Tehran visit in which he said that past hostilities between Iran and the UK should be forgotten, Fars reported. "Tehran will never forget the past and Britain's colonialist moves," Sheikholeslam said. The British embassy was opened nearly four years after it was stormed by protesters.
Reuters contributed to this report.

Yemen Fire Kills 3 Saudi Soldiers, as One Dead in Crash
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 25/15/Three Saudi soldiers have been killed by artillery fire from Yemen, and another died when his patrol vehicle crashed along the border, authorities in Riyadh said on Tuesday. A Saudi border post in the kingdom's southern region of Jazan came under shell and rocket fire from Yemeni territory on Monday. After initially reporting that one soldier had been killed in the attack, an interior ministry spokesman said on Tuesday that two others had succumbed to their wounds. Quoted by the official SPA news agency, the spokesman did not give a number of those thought to have been wounded in the attack. In a separate incident, a Saudi soldier operating along the border with Yemen was killed when his vehicle overturned, the spokesman added. Riyadh said Sunday that rocket fire had killed a general, the highest-ranking officer to die in cross-border attacks since a Saudi-led coalition began air strikes against Iran-backed rebels across Yemen in March. Nearly 60 people, mainly military personnel, have been killed in Saudi Arabia's border region since the air campaign began.

S. Korea Silences Loudspeakers after Deal with North to End Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 25/15/South Korea switched off loudspeakers blasting propaganda messages into North Korea after the two rivals reached a compromise deal Tuesday and stepped back from the brink of an armed clash. The giant banks of speakers, which had lain silent for more than a decade, were drafted back into action two weeks ago after Seoul blamed Pyongyang for landmine blasts that maimed two patrolling South Korean soldiers. The South demanded an apology, while the North denied any involvement and threatened to attack the propaganda units as cross-border military tensions soared. With the situation pushed to the brink of conflict, the two sides secured an agreement Tuesday morning on ending the crisis after more than 40 hours of intense day-night negotiations. North Korea "expressed regret" for the mine blasts and the South turned off the loudspeakers at midday (0300 GMT) Tuesday. South Korea's defense ministry said troops would remain on high alert until it confirmed that the North had stepped down from a "semi-war state" ordered by leader Kim Jong-Un. "Our side stopped the broadcasts, but we are maintaining our alert posture while we monitor the movement of North Korean troops," a ministry spokesman said."It will take time for them to pull back."
Technically, the two Koreas have been at war for the past 65 years since the 1950-53 Korean War ended with a ceasefire that was never ratified by a formal peace treaty. The latest crisis saw a rapid escalation in military movements, with South Korean and U.S. fighter jets flying simulated bombing sorties and North Korea reportedly deploying dozens of submarines and doubling artillery units at the border. The United States, which has close to 30,000 troops permanently stationed in South Korea, welcomed the decision to de-escalate. "It was a very tense several days," U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby told a regular briefing. "Now we're going to have to see how it plays out," Kirby added. The final wording of the communique fell short of the complete apology South Korea had sought for the mine blasts, and there was no explicit acceptance of responsibility by Pyongyang, which has repeatedly denied any role in the incident. But South Korea's lead negotiator, National Security Adviser Kim Kwan-Jin, insisted the expression of regret was "very meaningful" and said securing it had been the toughest part of the negotiating process. "We had to get a word of apology that has the North as the main agent," Kim said. His opposite number Hwang Pyong-So, who is a top aide to Kim Jong-Un, was anything but apologetic afterwards, saying the whole crisis had been triggered by South Korea's "groundless" reaction to "fabricated" incidents. Announcing details of the agreement on the North's state-run TV, Hwang said the deal had been struck thanks to the "principled struggle" of the North Korean people and military. The two sides also agreed to work towards a resumption next month of reunions for families separated by the war, and to hold official talks in either Seoul or Pyongyang at a date to be decided. Analyst reaction was mixed, with some suggesting the South had come away with too little in terms of a clear apology. Seoul had also sought a specific promise from Pyongyang to refrain from future provocations, but had to settle for a vague reference to avoiding "abnormal" events. But Jeung Young-Tae, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, argued that the expression of regret had been stronger than many expected. "In the world of diplomatic language, this is a clear apology, with the object of the regret -- the landmine blasts that maimed the soldiers -- clearly stated," Jeung said. It remains to be seen how far the agreement takes the two Koreas, beyond ending the current stand-off. Previous agreements that appeared to offer a new way forward for relations have generally stumbled straight out of the gate.

France Sees Assad's 'Neutralization' as Precondition for Peace
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 25/15/French President Francois Hollande said Tuesday that the "neutralization" of Syrian leader Bashar Assad was a precondition to resolving the crisis in the war-torn country. "We must reduce the terrorist influence without maintaining Assad. The two are bound up together," Hollande told a gathering of French diplomats in Paris. "We must create a political transition in Syria, it's a necessity."He laid out three conditions for resolving the crisis -- the first of which was the "neutralization" of Assad. The second was to offer "solid guarantees to all the moderate opposition forces, notably the Sunnis and Kurds, and to preserve state structures and the unity of Syria." The final condition, which he said would be "decisive", was to bring together regional actors with a stake in the conflict. "I'm thinking of the Gulf countries, I'm thinking also of Iran. I'm thinking of Turkey which must get involved in the fight against Daesh (an alternative name for the Islamic State group) and resume the dialogue with the Kurds," Hollande said. Syria's foreign ministry reacted angrily to Hollande's speech, saying it "constituted a flagrant intrusion in internal affairs and shows that France contributes to the spilling of Syrian blood". "The French government should know that as long as it maintains these positions, we will not accept any role for France in a political solution," the ministry's statement added. Hollande said France would continue to support "moderate" members of the Syrian opposition and coalition airstrikes against IS in neighboring Iraq. "Terrorism threatens all the actors in the region... and all world powers," he said. "Resolving the Syrian crisis demands the participation of all, and France is ready to play its part."

Libya Calls for International Airstrikes against IS
Naharnet/August 25/15/Libya's foreign minister on Tuesday renewed the country's call for the lifting of an arms embargo and for international air strikes to help tackle the Islamic State group which threatens to create a "rear base" in the country. "The situation is extremely serious," Mohamed al-Dayri, foreign minister for Libya's internationally-recognized government based in Tobruk, told AFP during a visit to Paris. "People are dying, are crucified, are disinterred from their graves, are burned alive. Libyans don't understand why the international community doesn't wake up to these dangers." Libya has two rival governments and has been torn apart since the international community helped oust its leader Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. One government which Dayri is part of controls most eastern regions after fleeing Tripoli in July 2014, driven out by a motley coalition of Islamists and militants. Dayri said the Islamic State group (IS) was present in the towns of Derna, Benghazi, Sirte and Sabratha. "They have not yet seized oil fields, but we fear they might come to control several wells," he added. "On Saturday, there was a call from their leaders in Iraq and Syria to reinforce their ranks in Libya. They want to make Libya a rear base." He said IS currently had limited means in Libya and had faced pushback from local populations working alongside other armed Islamist groups including Al-Qaida, notably in Derna in June. "After 2011, Libya was abandoned to its fate," said Dayri. He called for the United Nations to lift the arms embargo imposed in 2011. "We are not talking about sophisticated military equipment, but we need the minimum to fight terrorism in an adequate manner," he said. "We also hope for an (international) intervention as soon as possible because the danger is growing. But not troops on the ground. We are hoping for aerial support for the Libyan armed forces on the ground. "The international community waited for Mosul to fall before intervening in Iraq. We don't want to see Tripoli or Misrata fall," he said.

U.N. Condemns First Executions in Kurdish Region in 7 Years
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 25/15/The U.N. on Tuesday condemned the execution by the government of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region of three people convicted of murder and kidnapping, in the first use of the death penalty in the region in seven years.
Farhad Jaafar Mahmood and his two wives, Khuncha Hassan Ismaeil and Berivan Haider Karim, were hanged in the early hours of August 12, after being convicted of kidnapping and murdering two girls. "We are dismayed to learn of the executions," Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the U.N. rights office, told reporters in Geneva. The three-province autonomous government, which is still financially dependent on Iraq, put in place an informal moratorium on the use of the death penalty in 2008. "We are deeply disappointed by this new development," Colville said, urging Kurdish officials "to recommit to and formalize its unofficial moratorium on the use of the death penalty."A spokesman for the Kurdish Higher Judicial Council, Omid Mohsen, said regional President Massud Barzani had approved the decision. "It is an exceptional case," Mohsen told AFP, without discussing further details of the crime or the convicts. Colville pointed out that until now, the situation in Kurdistan had stood "in stark contrast to the situation in the rest of Iraq".More than 600 people have been executed in Iraq since the country reinstated the death penalty in 2004. Half of those executions came in 2012 and 2013, with an additional 62 in 2014.

Yasser Abbas is tagged to succeed his father as Palestinian leader
Introducing Yasser Abbas – the son whom the Palestinian leader plans to succeed him
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 25, 2015/The reports swirling around the Arab world over the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’s decision to quit disguise the octogenarian’s next plans. According to our Middle East sources, Abbas (known to all as Abu Mazen) has confided to his close circle that he has lost faith in President Barack Obama, whom he accuses of deserting the Palestinian cause, and in Secretary of State John Kerry, whom he has nicknamed “the tall liar.” He is now looking for new champions, possibly in Tehran, while at the same time shoring up his rule over the Palestinian Authority and designing his legacy. Abbas joins the list of regional allies who feel abandoned by the Obama administration, like the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi and, up to a point, Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu. For the immediate future, Abu Mazen is developing a comprehensive plan for replacing his enemies on the PLO’s Executive Committee with young faces, chosen for their ability to preserve the Abbas clan’s majority in this key institution and uphold his guiding principles for the Palestinian movement. Since the end of July, his henchmen, Saeb Erekat, Akram Haniya and Palestinian General Intelligence chief Mejad Freij have been working on this blueprint. They are to complete their project by September, when Abbas plans to introduce his choice of new leaders to the Executive Committee. They will consist mainly of the sons of the founders of the PLO and his own Fatah party. Some of their names are unknown outside the Palestinian Authority’s seat in Ramallah. debkafile reports that prominent among them are Sabry Shayden - son of the PLO’s first chief of staff; Maher Ghanem - son of Abu Maher Ghanem, the Fatah Party’s first organizer; and also Gen. Majid Freij, Ayman Makbul from Nablus and Fahmi Zar’ir from the Gaza Strip.
The most important new face will be that of Yasser Abbas – Mahmoud Abbas’ own son. The new appointments will herald another change: the PLO Exective Committee is to be elevated as the supreme Palestinian ruling institution, with jurisdiction over the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian government. Abu Mazen is shaping this reshuffle to guarantee that his immediate successor as PA Chairman - mostly probably Erekat, whom the West knows as the most public Palestinian negotiator - will give up his seat when the time comes to make way for Yasser Abbas. In this way, Mahmoud Abbas hopes to keep control of the Palestinian movement in the hands of his dynasty. His son, aged 52, who was named in honor of the late Yasser Arafat, moved from Ramallah to Canada in 1997 and built a business career. A civil engineering graduate from Washington State University, he owns a string of companies in Canada, the Gulf and the West Bank. Among them is Falco Tobacco, which holds the sole agency for the distribution of American cigarettes in the Palestinian territory.
There are many rumors about how he made his fortune, including corrupt practices in high Palestinian circles. Little is known about his politics. When interviewed on occasion, he prefers to dwell on how he made his money rather than expanding on public affairs that concern his people. His good connections in Washington will no doubt be useful for opening a new chapter with the US when he takes over. No date has been set for an Abbas visit to Tehran. It will be interesting to see whom he picks for the party to accompany him if and when it takes place.

Yemen: ICRC office in Aden attacked
CRC News Release No. 15/128/25 August 2015
Sana’a/Geneva (ICRC) – The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) strongly condemns an attack which has taken place on its offices in the city of Aden in Yemen. Unidentified gunmen stormed the building on Monday (24 August, 2015) and held staff at gunpoint. Cars, cash and equipment were subsequently stolen. As a result, fourteen international staff members have been relocated. “This is not the first time that we have had a security incident in Aden,” said the ICRC’s head of sub-delegation in the city, Samer Jarjouhi. “There have been at least ten such incidents recently. This is not acceptable and we have relocated staff until the situation improves.” It is not clear who the gunmen were but the security situation in Aden has deteriorated in recent months. The ICRC will remain in contact with the authorities in the city to discuss safety considerations.The ICRC has been present in Aden since 2010 and in Yemen since 1962. ICRC activities, including the provision of food, water and medical care, continue throughout the country. Since the recent crisis broke out in March the ICRC has stepped up its activities in Yemen, and has been providing vital humanitarian support to around one million people in Aden.
The ICRC calls on all parties on the ground to respect the ICRC’s strictly neutral and impartial work and to not obstruct or prevent it from helping people in need.

International Day of the Disappeared: ICRC calls for more efforts to document fate of missing
Geneva (ICRC) – Governments and civil society must do more to document the fate and whereabouts of people who disappear in conflicts or other circumstances and give stronger support to the families left behind, the International Committee of the Red Cross has said.
“Whether someone has disappeared during war, or migration or a disaster, the suffering of the families remains,” said Marianne Pecassou, who heads the ICRC’s team working on the missing. “It’s essential to collect information that is available today on people who disappear, how and where they have disappeared, that might be useful at some point in time to bring answers to the families,” said Pecassou, speaking as the world prepares to mark the International Day of the Disappeared on August 30.
But providing answers takes a long time and is often not possible while a conflict is still ongoing. For some families, there might never be a definitive answer. And in the meantime, families have a range of needs for support.
“All too often, especially in conflict situations, the problem of the missing is just not on the radar. Governments and other actors need to make sure it is on the agenda and do more to address the practical and emotional needs of the families,” Pecassou said.
The disappearance of a loved one may leave the family without economic support and often they will have to use up their dwindling resources on the search for their missing relative. In many cases, the family does not want to declare a missing person dead and so for example, they can’t access the person’s property or salary,” says Pecassou.
Families also suffer on an emotional and social level - they might experience isolation, sadness and marginalisation and often need longterm support in order to overcome these difficulties and regain control of their lives.
The ICRC offers support of various kinds, ranging from economic security programmes to help families find new livelihoods, to legal and administrative advice to emotional care and help with trying to find out the facts and ways of remembering their missing loved ones.

Iran’s policy in the Persian Gulf region – ‘charm’ offensive alongside terror
By HADAS MAMAN/J.Post/08/25/2015
Iran’s post-nuclear deal behavior was evident in Bahrain and Kuwait two weeks after the nuclear accord was signed.
Before the ink had even dried on comments made by Iranian officials regarding the recent Gulf-Iranian dialogue, Kuwaiti authorities made the announcement that they had intercepted a Hezbollah-linked terrorist cell that had transported weapons into the country via Iran. And at the same time that Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif was speaking regarding his vision for relations with Tehran’s Gulf neighbors, Bahrain announced the results of investigations into an attack in Sitra which killed two policemen and wounded six: it had arrested five individuals who received financing and training from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah in Iraq and have been linked to a number of terrorist incidents in Bahrain over recent years.
There is nothing new in Tehran’s foreign policy. These two terrorist incidents are certainly not the first that have been directed at Gulf countries by Iran and its proxies in the region. However, both coincided with warm calls from the Iranian administration for dialogue with its Gulf neighbors, and clearly display the huge difference between concrete realities and action on the one hand and mere words on the other. For example, Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif called during his last visit in Kuwait for dialogue and urged Gulf Arab countries to join forces with Tehran to fight against extremism and militancy in the Middle East.
Simultaneously, in a televised speech last month, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would continue to support its regional friends despite its recent nuclear deal with world powers, including “the oppressed Palestinian nation, Yemen, Syria, Iraq [and] Bahrain.”In between, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said during his visit to Kurdistan province last month: “Iran protects Erbil and Baghdad the same as it protects Iranian Kurdistan.” “Without Iran’s help Erbil and Baghdad would be in the hands of terrorist groups right now. The way we protect Sanandaj we also protect Sulaimani and Duhok,” he said. Even while fighting Islamic State (IS) Iran had a hand in the establishment of the “Popular Mobilization Units” in Iraq, supplies weapons, money and training to the Shi’ite Houthi militia in Yemen and to Hezbollah in Lebanon and keeps interfering in the internal affairs of its Gulf neighbors and continuing its destabilizing activities in the region.
And all this is simply part of Iran’s push to achieve one of its most prized strategic objectives: to establish a bridge between itself and the Mediterranean via Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia via Syria and Lebanon. Iran will fight tooth and nail to achieve this goal; there’s no harm in attempting dialogue with the Gulf states as a PR move to cover up these efforts. Iran’s regime is attempting to use this latest charm offensive as a card to play in front of the international community and as a means to cover up other aggressive actions.
These actions can only be explained as evidence of Iranian political and geographical ambition along with a desire to interfere in the affairs of neighboring states in the Arabian Gulf. Tehran is trying to further extend its influence across the region and exploit the momentum it has gained from the nuclear deal with Western powers.
Now that it has secured its control over Baghdad, Beirut, Gaza, Sana’a and Damascus, Iran has its eyes on other countries, and Hezbollah is evidently nothing but a means to an end. Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab states have historically had a hostile relationship, mainly due to ideological differences. Iran’s recent nuclear agreement with six world powers further exacerbated the tensions as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) thinks that the deal would provide Tehran more resources to support Shi’ite groups and cause sectarian rife across the region. The GCC states fear the Iran nuclear deal will give Iran the legitimacy and the cash to transform from a pariah state to an emboldened actor with a free hand to expand its ongoing aid to its proxies.
At the beginning of the month, in an article titled, “A Prudent Enemy Is Better than An Imprudent One” in the Kuwaiti government daily Al-Watan, columnist Abdallah Hadlaq wrote that the real enemy of the Gulf states is not Israel, whom he called “a friendly country.”
In another article, published Sunday, August 16, Hadlaq called for the arming of Iranian minority groups to confront the Iranian regime. Hadlaq said Arab nations needed to bring their confrontation with their powerful Persian neighbor to the north “into their own home, financing and arming non-Persian ethnic groups, such as the Arab minority in southeastern Ahvaz, the Baluchi, Iranian Turkmen, Iranian Armenians and Iranian Azerbaijanis.
He called on these groups to rise up and overthrow what he called the “fascist” regime in Tehran. For reconciliation and dialogue between the Sunni Gulf Arab states and Iran to materialize, Iranians have to abandon interventionist and sectarian policies once and for all. If Iran is truly to win over its neighbors, it will need to undertake monumental efforts both on its own and with others in the region to put out the flames it has started all over the Middle East.
**The author is a Middle East and Arab media researcher.

Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed: Saudi Arabia Must Stop Relying On Easy Oil Money And Promote Educational, Economic Reforms To Diversify Its Sources Of Income
MEMRI/August 25/15
In light of the drop in oil prices worldwide, and the reports on the adverse effects this has had on the Saudi economy,[1] former Al-Sharq Al-Awsat editor 'Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed wrote an article in which he criticized Saudi Arabia for relying too heavily on its oil revenues. Al-Rashed argued that the easy income from oil has encouraged the Saudi authorities to maintain "slothful habits" such as blanket subsidies for uncompetitive enterprises and substandard education that produces "unproductive graduates." However, since Saudi oil will eventually run out, he said, Saudi Arabia must overcome this "addiction" to oil revenues and start developing alternative sources of income. To this end, he called for reforming the Saudi education system to produce a generation of productive and creative minds, which are currently in short supply, and also for optimizing the services and growth of the state's institutions. If Saudi Arabia fails to do this, he warned, five million students may become a burden on their families. He stated that the oil price crisis may actually be a blessing in disguise for the kingdom if it prompts the Saudis to wake up and address the problem.
The following is the article as it was published in English on the Al-Arabiya website.[2]
Oil Revenue Addiction Produced Sloth
"A difficult financial phase is looming. Oil prices have fallen by more than half, and may continue to fall in the future. This is not the first time - Saudi Arabia witnessed the $12-barrel crisis in 1986 and endured the following unfruitful years.
"Although we have known for decades that oil revenue will one day come to an end [and] we are still hoping to develop alternative revenue sources, it [seems] inconceivable [that this will happen] in the near future. Dependence on oil revenue kept rising with each new budget, until we got tired and stopped thinking about addressing our petroleum addiction. With high oil prices, resources management was easy for bureaucrats. The government’s [only] task was to distribute the expected proceeds from oil and its derivatives to hospitals, education, commerce, and the import of livestock and wheat. It subsidized cement, iron, gasoline, soft drinks, textbooks and sports clubs. It also handed out stipends for university students. As long as there are oil buyers, bureaucrats do not need to overwork themselves; it is just an accounting issue. However, similarly to addicts, these doses will not be enough for them one day.
"Spending on good education will engender productive men and women, and contribute to national resources. Unproductive graduates drain the country’s resources. Money is supposed to be invested in building viable industries after the fall of oil resources. However, the majority of industries get subsidized electricity, water and fuel. They are all managed by cheap imported workforces, and the owners will close shop after government aid stops.
"With low oil prices, the country will not be able to afford foreign workers and drivers. This is a positive result because most of the richest and most-advanced countries do not have our slothful habits."
With Good Creative Management The Problems Can Be Tackled
"The real challenge facing the government is bigger than that; it must find additional financial resources. It will require the government to appoint creative minds. It will also [require] good management that is able to [work] miracles, reduce costs and explore additional resources. The country has a promising future as the banks are full of people and companies’ funds. However, they do not know how to invest their money.
"Regardless of the oil-revenue decrease, we are optimistic about the government’s reserves and [about] private financial resources. Nevertheless, it is a tough mission. Without education reform and orientation toward productive activities, 5 million students will become a burden on their families. If we do not prompt changes in state institutions, optimize their services and manage their growth, this big elephant - bureaucratic government - will remain tired and drained for a long time. The drop in oil revenues is not so bad because we need a shock to wake up and see the world around us. We should anticipate the biggest shock and correct our track. This is the right time to do so."
Endnotes:
[1] According to reports, the Saudis have had to use cash reserves and even borrow to compensate for the budgetary shortfall (Ft.com, July 12, 2015). Furthermore, this past year two major rating agencies cut the kingdom's credit rating outlook (Bloomberg.com, February 9, 2015; Reuters.com, August 23, 2015). [2] English.alarabiya.net, August 21, 2015. The original English has been lightly edited for clarity. The Arabic version of the article was published in Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), August 21, 2015.

Mass Immigration and the Undoing of Europe
Vijeta Uniyal/Gatestone Institute/August 25, 2015
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6370/mass-immigration-europe
*In Germany, where traffickers are now dropping off illegal immigrants on Autobahns, authorities have reacted -- not by trying to intercept or discourage traffickers, but by putting up new road signs alerting drivers of potential pedestrians on the highway.
* Last month alone, more migrants landed on the shores of Greece than in the whole of 2014.
*If the mainstream media keep reminding everyone how the rioting immigrant youths in France or Britain are driven by economic inequality now, imagine the scale of unrest once European welfare states cannot finance "half the planet" anymore and are forced to cut welfare benefits.
*No one, however, especially the media, blames migrants for their own actions.
*This is the real tragedy of the unfolding refugee crisis in Europe: apart from those fleeing combat zones, most migrants swarming European borders and coastlines do not appear to be in any real or dire need.
With the European Union surrendering its immigration policy to people smugglers, the immigration crisis in Europe keeps reaching staggering new heights. The word has gone out that Fortress Europe is scalable. From Morocco to Turkey, people smuggling has turned into an irresistibly big business.
From small-time thugs to the terror outfit Hamas -- for $2500-$3000 per person smuggled -- many evidently want to seize a slice of this lucrative business that was created by the EU's collective inaction.
In Germany, where traffickers are now dropping off illegal immigrants on Autobahns, authorities have reacted -- not by trying to intercept or discourage the traffickers, but by putting new road-signs alerting drivers of potential pedestrians on the highway.
Even before this year's mass immigration began, Germany was struggling to deal with roughly a quarter of a million asylum applicants -- without even accounting for the illegal immigrants already in the country. The recent wave of migration would push those figures to record heights.
The trend in Germany merely reflects the overall scale of the European immigrant crisis. In July 2015, an estimated 50,000 refugees entered Greece, a surge of 750 percent. Last month alone more migrants landed than in the whole of 2014.
In Germany, the head of Lower Saxony's Municipal Federation, Marco Trips, told local reporters that the "system has already collapsed." This sentiment is apparently shared by municipalities across Germany. In a historic move, the German federal government has now called in the military to assist in setting up new tent cities and providing basic amenities for ever-rising number of refugees.
The majority of those entering Europe illegally seem not to be fleeing armed conflicts, but seeking a better life in a welfare paradise. Europe's answer is to throw money at the problem -- money Europe does not have. Britain's Defence Secretary has suggested that the UK's £12 billion ($19 billion USD) foreign aid budget can "discourage" mass migration.
The European welfare system, funded increasingly by governments' debt in recent decades, is showing signs of an impending collapse. There is no end in sight for Greece's debt crisis, despite repeated bailout packages to the tune of €326 billion ($375 billion USD). Slow economic growth, high youth unemployment and an aging population makes the European welfare model increasingly untenable.
If the mainstream media keep reminding everyone how rioting immigrant youths in France or Britain are driven by economic inequality now, imagine the scale of unrest once European welfare states cannot finance "half the planet" anymore and are forced to cut welfare benefits. African migrants camp out on the beach in the northern Italian town of Ventimiglia, along the French border, as they wait for the opportunity to cross into France. (Image source: AFP video screenshot)
Europe's answer to this imminent financial doom is to create still more welfare dependents or, even better, "invite" them by failing to secure the borders.EU bureaucrats not only refuse to implement basic border controls but rebuke any EU member state moving to secure its borders. European politicians and the mainstream media are up in arms against Hungary's move to erect a border fence along its southern border. American public broadcaster PBS ran a report telling its viewers about Hungary's "new Iron Curtain." The Associated Press quoted unnamed "critics" who compared the Hungarian fence to "Communist-era barriers like the Berlin Wall." The EU bureaucrats in Brussels want to force a single asylum policy on all 28 member states, asking that they take in more migrants. According to this common asylum policy proposed by Brussels, asylum seekers entering EU would be divided among EU members.
Hungary, with 60,000 migrant arrivals so far just this year, entering mainly from Serbia, remains the most vocal opponent of the EU's proposed policy.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been virtually ostracized by European politicians and media, for not complying with EU's immigration policy. Contrary to the EU's position, he has called for a "distinction" between EU member-state citizens moving within Europe and non-EU foreigners. "There are economic immigrants who are just in search of a better life... Unfortunately in Hungary we can't give jobs to all of these immigrants," Orbán said, and called the EU's proposal for member states to take in more refugees "absurd, bordering on insanity."Europe, itself reeling under a financial crisis, cannot provide housing, employment and social benefits to the thousands who each day land on European shores and cross over borders. German newspapers are full of countless reports of immigrants disappointed after arriving in Europe, almost always followed by a reporter's plea for urgent action to address the said grievance. These "disappointments" often turn into violent clashes. Police across Germany have their hands full just to keeping rival migrant gangs from turning on each other or on officials.
No one, however, especially the media, blames migrants for their own actions. The mainstream media in Germany apparently refuse to connect the dots, so as not to "feed into negative stereotypes." A columnist for Germany's Tageszeitung even wrote of an elaborate government conspiracy that drives immigrants to turn violent -- allegedly just to give them a bad name. Tageszeitung also ran a story lamenting the "alarming conditions" of refugees landing on Greek islands. The article was accompanied by a photograph of smiling, well-fed, sturdy young men, posing for "selfies" on their smartphones while holding cigarettes in their hands. One of them was thoughtful enough to bring along a selfie-stick for his smartphone, to capture the moment he fled a "war zone" or acute "economic misery."
This, however, is the real tragedy of the unfolding refugee crisis in Europe: apart from those fleeing combat zones, most migrants swarming European borders and coastlines do not appear to be in any real or dire need. Economic disparity on other continents should not oblige Europeans to open its own floodgates for mass migration. This crisis seems to be one of Europe's own making -- that seems to be the logical conclusion of Europe's debt-driven welfare system and the EU's contempt for national boundaries.

Turkey’s ISIS problem
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/Tuesday, 25 August 2015
For years, Turkey has tried its hardest to ignore the situation south of its border in Syria and Iraq. In this time it has kept its borders with ISIS more or less open, not just to people - many of them recruits coming from the West - but also to goods and resources, enabling ISIS to smuggle and sell the oil they can still produce from the fields they captured in the Levant. These two factors have contributed greatly to ISIS’ past success. But of course, with friends like ISIS, who needs enemies. ISIS is after all a militarily expansionist millenarian death cult whose endgame is the subjugation of all other nations on earth and the establishment of a global Caliphate. So it was only going to be a matter of time until the conflict between ISIS and the Kurds would spill over into Turkey itself and something like the Suruc terror attack would happen.
Relenting to American pressure
Since that attack in July, the Turkish government has finally relented to American pressure, and is now allowing the U.S. to use its bases to strike against the militants. Indeed, Turkey has itself tried to mount a show of strength against “terrorism,” though so far its numerous air strikes and attacks have focused almost exclusively on separatist Kurdish interests (who so far had been the U.S.’s most reliable allies in the region). Cue the declaration of war by ISIS against Turkey. A newly released video is calling upon Turks to rise up against the ‘Satan’ President Erdogan and to overthrow the secular state, with all the drama typical of ISIS propaganda efforts.
Somehow or other, the ISIS ideology seems to have very little traction in Turkey
Should Turkey be afraid? So far, there is very little to suggest that it should. This call is not likely to have much traction with Turks at all. Given the fluid situation on the border for so many years, you’d expect that many Turks would have joined ISIS if they had been inclined to do so, and also you’d expect ISIS to have strong connections and operatives networks in Turkey. Neither seems to be the case. I was in Turkey just a few weeks ago and spoke with some officials from the Foreign Ministry. According to them, only 1,300 or so Turks have joined ISIS since its inception - that’s fewer than the UK’s ISIS recruits for example. And furthermore, the majority of those were not new jihadist recruits. Rather, they were veterans of previous jihadist conflicts in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Bosnia. There have been a handful of individuals that have been demonstrably radicalized by ISIS, by their ideology and their military successes, but that number has been vanishingly small compared to any other Sunni countries in the region and indeed countries with Sunni minorities in Europe.
ISIS ideology
Somehow or other, the ISIS ideology seems to have very little traction in Turkey. This has two consequences that we should consider. The first one is that this so-called declaration of war will probably benefit Turkey in the long-run, if it responds appropriately. Secure the borders properly and block ISIS’s recruitment and trade operations through Turkey, and you severely weaken them. That contains ISIS in the north. The Kurds, Iran and Shi’a Iraqi militias are already doing a good job at containing ISIS in the North-East, East and South-East, and Jordan is making progress checking ISIS ambitions in the South. Meanwhile, to the West there is the Assad forces and the Sea. So provided that Turkey finally closes the borders and Jordan can continue to resist both militarily and ideologically the ISIS threat, ISIS will finally be completely encircled and will soon start to suffocate. And Turkey can do so with minimal fear of internal unrest. The second consequence might be even more momentous. Once Turkey starts to take its responsibilities seriously in fighting against Islamist extremism, it can start teaching some very valuable lessons to its neighbours about how it has been so resilient against the ideological seductions of ISIS. Some of Turkey’s success will be down to things which cannot be replicated in other countries. Others, such as its wonderful blend of apolitical Sunni Islam, the flourishing of multiple inclusivist Sufi traditions of Islam in the country, and its bedrock of political secularism which happily tolerates many Christian and Jewish communities, is something that can and very much should be exported to other countries in the region. ISIS’ declaration of war is not in any real sense a problem for Turkey. No more that ISIS has been a problem for Turkey already. Rather it is an opportunity for Turkey to acknowledge that this problem exists, and to raise to the occasion and show the regional leadership to which it aspires. This is the moment when Turkey can earn the regional status it wants to claim for itself, and it should not let paranoid delusions about the PKK get in the way.

Tears in Syria’s Douma and Greece’s Kos
Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/Tuesday, 25 August 2015
A New York Times photo gallery last week showed refugees arriving in Europe. The report, entitled “Migrants find an unbridled route to Greece,” showed a photo of a Syrian man breaking out in tears of relief after arriving with his family. The photo taken by Daniel Etter showed Laith Majid in tears holding his sons and daughter after they arrived safely in Kos. The group of migrants had crossed over from Turkey’s Bodrum on a rubber boat and headed to Greece seeking refuge and a new life. Laith and his family survived twice so far: once when they escaped death from Syria’s Deir Azzour and again when they survived the dangerous boat trip which would have cost them their lives. This is why Laith broke into tears of joy once he set foot on Greece. Daniel Etter, a Barcelona-based photographer, captured the image then. He tweeted saying: “I am overwhelmed by the reaction to this family’s tears of relief. This is why I do what I do.”
The life of many
Laith’s photo, in which he’s embracing his children and crying out in salvation, reflects the situation of all migrants and refugees. It has been used in the past few days to respond to increasing campaigns against desperate migrants who seek salvation even if it costs them their lives. Migrants’ affairs have kept Europe busy especially as the number of refugees is increasing. Laith’s photo in which he broke out in tears of joy has become the face of the confused refugee in Europe; however, there are other photos which did not circulate as widely as this one – photos that show people who also survived death and who are also in tears but for different reasons. Last week, there were dozens of horrifying photos of the victims of the brutal Syrian regime shelling of a crowded marketplace in Douma. The shelling killed over 100 people and injured over 300 others. One of the photos showed a wounded boy whose head was wrapped in a bandage in an attempt to stop the bleeding. The blood, however, stained his face. This boy has also survived death but this survival is closer to extending suffering than to reaching salvation – and perhaps it’s not the first time he survives death.
Laith broke into tears because he survived while the boy from Douma cried because he’s incapable of celebrating his survival
Although the reare hundreds of photos showing Syrian suffering, this boy’s pain and sadness made us feel absolutely helpless. The bandage around his head looked like a halo, but not a halo of light as it looked more like a shroud wrapping the boy despite the fact that he’s still alive. His tears mixed with the blood on his face as his expression reflected desperation and surrender. When looking at him, you feel he’s incapable of screaming out in pain or of even weeping. His tears effortlessly fell down his face and he looked as if he’s surrendered to frustration and to the fact that he’s stuck in this painful time. Death almost got him this time and he does not know if he will survive other shelling incidents. We did not know the identity of this boy from Douma.
He definitely has a name and a story. He must have family and friends. What is certain is that he too represents the situation of those stuck inside Syria and whom no one cares about. Haven’t many Arab and global media outlets failed to widely cover the Douma massacre, just like the case was with many other massacres the Syrian regime committed?
Laith broke into tears because he survived while the boy from Douma cried because he’s incapable of celebrating his survival – that is if you can call that survival.

Iran deal goes from risky to farcical
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/Tuesday, 25 August 2015
When I first learned that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had signed an agreement permitting Iran to self-monitor at least one of its major nuclear sites, I shrugged off the news as a figment of someone’s heated imagination. It is inconceivable that the world’s nuclear watchdog, known for its professionalism and stringent monitoring, would sign-off on something so bizarre – or so I initially believed. Iraq, whose nuclear activities, both civilian and military, were dismantled following the Gulf War, certainly did not get off that lightly. Even after years of intrusive inspections, the IAEA under the directorship of Mohammed El Baradei declined to present Iraq’s deserved clean bill of health to the U.N. Security Council prior to the U.S.-led invasion.
My view broadly reflects the opinions of many of Iran’s neighbours, fearful that the lifting of sanctions will see Iran’s coffers overflowing into the hands of its armed proxies
Yet the Islamic Republic of Iran, that has been spinning thousands of centrifuges to enrich uranium and has refused to come clean on its past activities in this sphere, is trusted to inspect itself!
The IAEA cannot be accused of lacking innovation. Perhaps we will soon see drivers suspected of being under the influence allowed to test their own substance levels. Moreover, given the ayatollahs are suddenly considered trustworthy, years of negotiations could have been avoided. A simple affidavit signed by the supreme leader would have sufficed just as well. Something does not smell right here.
Obama’s claim
Just as fishy is the Obama administration’s claim that the U.S. was not a party to this agreement specific to the Parchin Military Complex - known as Separate Arrangement II – when it was approved by all P5+1 countries.
A White House spokesman has confirmed the administration is “comfortable” with the terms of the confidential side agreement between Iran and the IAEA. Are we to suppose that the IAEA took this dangerous, lackadaisical approach off its own bat?
According to a leaked draft of this ‘Separate Arrangement’ divulged by the Associated Press, Iran is bound to provide the IAEA with photographs and videos of the various locations within Parchin, together with environmental samples. The question remains, how can those photos, videos and samples be verified as relating to the Parchin complex - and even if they are legit, who is to know whether or not they have been cherry-picked?
President Obama’s assurances that Iran’s activities would be subject to “unprecedented verification” sound ever more hollow. The IAEA has been barred from this site, suspected of carrying out tests related to nuclear weapons, since 2005 and, now it is assented to being locked-out for the duration, which is out of character.
This surrender on the part of the IAEA leads me to believe that like so many other U.N. bodies, the IAEA is politicised; in this case, it has shaped its usual rock-solid strategies to suit political goals. However it is spun, this does not amount to “the most robust inspection regime” ever, as touted by the Obama administration.
Slamming the report
The AP report has been slammed by the IAEA as “misleading”. However, the agency’s Director General Yukiya Amano has not disavowed the draft’s published content. He insisted that the arrangements are in conformity with long-established IAEA practices, while emphasising that he has “a legal obligation not to make them public.” One is left wondering why the public, not to mention U.S. lawmakers, are being left in the dark.
As my regular readers would know, I have been against this unsatisfactory arrangement since day one, primarily because of its narrow remit. An acceptable deal would have been conditional upon Tehran ceasing its trouble-making and attempts to topple governments throughout the region.
My view broadly reflects the opinions of many of Iran’s neighbours, rightly fearful that the lifting of sanctions will see Iran’s coffers overflowing into the hands of its armed proxies.
President Obama has repeatedly countered our concerns on the grounds that curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions for ten years is better than no deal. I did not find his arguments credible then, but now the existence of secret side agreements have come to the fore, my suspicions that Iran is being deliberately empowered to fit a geopolitical end-game are heightened.
I would love to know why this entity that has been hostile to Western powers and their allies since its inception in 1979 is being rewarded for its terrorist associations and its regional will to power. Or is this animosity with the West just a farce to fool us?
European capitals are eyeing up lucrative trade deals and planning to reopen their embassies in Tehran. Iranian-Russian trade is set to expand exponentially. Iran’s oil industry is gearing up to expand production of crude to pre-sanctions levels, which could see already depressed oil prices spiralling to new lows making the U.S. fracking industry uncompetitive.
Obama’s hard-sell campaign is not working, despite his frequent appearances on U.S. news networks to plug the deal for all he is worth and his furious lobbying of Congress. He has even resorted to pleading with the American people to press their Congressional representatives to vote ‘yes’, but is making little headway. A recently released CNN/ORC poll indicates that 56 per cent of Americans want Congress to reject the deal.
Just about every Republican presidential hopeful - with the exception of Jeb Bush who is on the fence - vows to undo the deal and re-impose sanctions; most of their Democratic rivals are trying to distance themselves from the topic.
Congress has 60 days to put the issue under a spotlight and is set to vote early next month on a ‘Resolution of Disapproval’. If the vote fails to go in the president’s favour, in theory, Congress could prevent him from lifting sanctions against Iran. Obama has threatened to use his veto, risking putting the White House and Congress on a war footing. In the unlikely event that two-thirds of Congress is opposed, requiring Democrats to jump camp, his veto is automatically overridden.
President Obama has been browbeating and bribing America’s Middle East allies, appealing to the American to ensure that we in my part of the world are not doomed to pay the price. people and playing the heavy with Congress to seal his deal, to the point of being unseemly. At stake is his legacy. It is my hope that America’s lawmakers will rise to the occasion.

What Abbas's PLO Resignation Means
Ghaith al-Omari/Washington Institute/August 25, 2015
The president's sudden departure from the PLO executive committee was likely a maneuver to consolidate power, but it nonetheless exposes broader uncertainties in Palestinian politics.
On August 22, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas resigned from his position as chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) executive committee, along with nine other committee members. While initially interpreted by commentators as the implementation of Abbas's repeated threats to resign as leader of the key Palestinian institutions, developments so far indicate that, rather than signaling Abbas's departure from Palestinian political life, this step is intended to consolidate his power within the PLO by removing some of his critics and appointing loyalists to the committee.
Background
The executive committee, the PLO's highest decisionmaking body, is composed of eighteen members elected by the Palestinian National Council (PNC). The current committee, which was elected in 2009, includes representatives of all the PLO's constituent factions as well as a number of independents.
For its part, the PNC is often described as the PLO's "legislative body." It officially consists of 800 members, but only about 700 of these remained the last time the PNC met for a special session in 2009. Most PNC members reside outside the West Bank and Gaza, and many of the diaspora members oppose the principles of the Oslo Accords and President Abbas's policies.
According to PLO regulations, if fewer than a third of the committee's seats become vacant, the vacancies are filled during the next regular PNC session. (Even as a special session was held in 2009, the last regular PNC session hasn't occurred since 1996.) If more than a third become vacant, then the vacancies are filled in a special session to be held within thirty days. For both regular and special PNC sessions, two-thirds of members constitute a quorum. In cases of force majeure, vacancies are filled in an emergency session by "the Executive Committee, the PNC leadership and any PNC members who are able to attend" without the need for a quorum.
The resignation of President Abbas and his nine committee colleagues is intended to create the vacancies needed to trigger new committee elections. Since most of the diaspora and Gaza-based PNC members will be unable to attend if the meeting is held in Ramallah, an emergency session will likely be attended predominantly by West Bank members and some from Jordan.
This move comes in the wake of various recent measures against critics of President Abbas, including the July removal of Yasser Abed Rabbo from his position as the committee's secretary-general, the closing of the Palestinian Peace Coalition, an NGO chaired by Abed Rabbo, the targeting of former prime minister Salam Fayyad's NGO, Future for Palestine, and ongoing measures against former Fatah official and Abbas rival Mohammad Dahlan. It also coincides with recent expressions of disquiet within the Fatah movement.
Although Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) are not members of the PLO, according to the 2012 Cairo agreement on Palestinian national unity, a committee will be created to reform the PLO, including reforming the PNC to include Hamas and PIJ members. This committee, however, has been inactive.
Implications
If President Abbas's strategy comes to fruition, then a new executive committee is likely to be elected that would include some current members, among them Abbas himself and some of those who resigned, but exclude the president's critics. This move is already generating controversy, with Abbas and the move's supporters claiming it is intended to "invigorate the committee" and opponents asserting it is an "arbitrary move...meant for asserting control over it." Opposition is likely to come from two main quarters: within the PLO and Hamas.
A number of the committee's members have refused to resign, and thereby comply with Abbas's plan, most notably representatives of left-leaning factions and some independents. Senior members of these factions have publicly criticized the gesture. While leftist factions enjoy only a limited public following, their opposition is significant in that it breaks the PLO's tradition of reaching decisions by consensus.
In addition to political opposition, the move's opponents are preparing to challenge it on a key point of procedure. They assert that PLO regulations authorize a PNC emergency session only to fill vacancies; thus, those members who refused to resign cannot be replaced. Ultimately, the decision on this point belongs to PNC president Salim Zanoun, who was the PNC's vice president beginning in 1969 and has been its president since 1994. While he is a member of Abbas's Fatah movement, he has in the past acted unpredictably and broken ranks with both the late PLO chairman Yasser Arafat and President Abbas.
Hamas has rejected the move, describing it as a breach of the Cairo unity agreement. This reaction, however, is only preliminary and is consistent with the organization's continuing rhetoric against Abbas and the PA. The organization's final decision is yet to come and will be dictated by a number of considerations.
For Hamas, this development comes at an interesting time, when the movement is attempting to assert itself as an independent actor in the regional and international arena and amid reports of efforts to reach a long-term ceasefire understanding with Israel. If Hamas feels that its efforts are gaining sufficient momentum, it may deem it in its interest to use this development to justify formally annulling the unity agreement with the PLO. If not, then it will content itself with having yet another rhetorical tool against Abbas.
Conclusion
Reports of President Abbas's political demise may be premature. His and his colleagues' recent resignations from the PLO executive committee are likely internal political maneuvers aimed at consolidating power. However, given the fluidity of the domestic and regional political scene, unexpected consequences cannot be discounted.
Whatever the outcome, these developments have once again exposed the many uncertainties that plague Palestinian politics as it relates to Abbas's succession, the competition over domestic and international legitimacy between the PLO and Hamas, and transparency and procedural and political predictability of decisionmaking within Palestinian institutions. Unless these uncertainties are addressed through comprehensive political and institutional reforms, the Palestinian political system will remain vulnerable to crises that hold the risk of creating destabilizing power or institutional vacuums.
*Ghaith al-Omari is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute.

Will the Obama Administration Implement the Stringent Sanctions Authorized Under the Iran Agreement?
Patrick Clawson/Washington Institute/August 25, 2015
Even after the deal is in effect, the United States can sustain or increase tough barriers on Iran's trade with other countries, but this fact has not been highlighted by the president or his team.
On August 19, in a move designed to address concerns by wavering members of Congress, President Barack Obama sent a letter to Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) outlining some steps his administration will take after the nuclear deal's implementation to continue to press Iran. Another set of clarifications the administration could issue toward the same end would be about the sanctions pressure Washington will apply to block Iran from normal trading relations with other countries.
Indeed, under the nuclear deal Washington has reserved rights to preserve serious limits on Iranian trade with European and Asian firms. However, it is by no means clear if the Obama administration will make vigorous use of those rights. Sanctions are never automatic: just because the U.S. government has the authority to block certain transactions does not mean it will actively make use of that power, including through vigorous enforcement. At least some of those uncertain about the nuclear deal would feel more comfortable were there convincing evidence that the administration plans to continue vigorously impeding normal Iranian trade.
The potential barriers fall into several categories: sanctioning foreign banks involved in Iran trade, supporting seizure of Iranian assets, highlighting the risks from Iranian deceptive financial practices, and maintaining regulatory pressure.
Continuing U.S. Sanctions on Foreign Banks Involved in Iran Trade
At present, the 2010 Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA) prohibits U.S. banks from opening or maintaining correspondent or payable-through accounts for any foreign financial institutions that fall afoul of its provisions, effectively shutting these institutions off not only from the U.S. banking system but from all transactions in U.S. dollars. This has been a serious impediment to normal Iranian trade. Asian firms, among others, have faced complications arranging for payment as a result.
In the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action's (JCPOA's) Annex II.B.4.1.1, Washington pledges to "cease the application" of certain sanctions, but this applies only to Section 104(c)(2)E(ii)(I), one small provision of CISADA. Nothing is said in the JCPOA about the rest of CISADA. Namely, the other parts of Section 104(c)(2) of CISADA describe a wide range of activities that can justify U.S. sanctions on a foreign financial institution. Such activities include if the institution "facilitates the efforts of the Government of Iran (including efforts of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps or any of its agents or affiliates)...to provide support for organizations designated as foreign terrorist organizations"; "engages in money laundering" to that end; "facilitates efforts by the Central Bank of Iran [CBI] or any other Iranian financial institution" to that end; or "provides significant financial services for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] or any of its agents or affiliates whose property or interests in property are blocked pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act" or for "a financial institution whose property or interests in property are blocked pursuant to that Act in connection with...Iran's support for international terrorism."
The list of activities subjecting foreign banks to the secondary CISADA sanctions is potentially far-reaching. Many IRGC "agents or affiliates," such as Iran's largest construction company, Khatam al-Anbia, and the IRGC's retirement funds and credit unions, are major economic actors, and arguably any dealings with them constitute facilitating efforts to support terrorist organizations. As then treasury secretary Timothy Geithner said in 2011 when designating "the entire Iranian banking sector -- including the Central Bank of Iran -- as a threat" under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act, "If you are a financial institution and you engage in any transaction involving Iran's Central Bank or any other Iranian bank operating inside or outside Iran, you are at risk of supporting Iran's illicit activities: its pursuit of nuclear weapons, its support for terrorism, and its efforts to deceive responsible financial institutions and evade sanctions. Any and every financial transaction with Iran poses grave risk of supporting those activities." This language would suggest that the CISADA provisions could be easily triggered if a foreign bank has dealings with an Iranian bank.
The JCPOA is less than clear about what sanctions remain. For instance, Annex II.7.2. gives a long list of activities banks may carry out post-implementation, but footnote 14 specifies that "the sanctions lifting described in this Section...is without prejudice to sanctions that may apply under legal provisions other than those cited in Section 4" -- in other words, the CISADA provisions still apply. Indeed, Annex 2, Attachment 3, of the JCPOA provides a long list of Iranian institutions no longer subject to sanctions under various provisions. This list, however, is distinct from any decision about whether CISADA's provisions still apply to such institutions; that is, those institutions may still be subject to extensive sanctions even though they will no longer be penalized for proliferation activities.
Billions in Court Judgments
Another barrier to Iran resuming normal foreign trade with Europe and Asia could be the vigorous legal actions planned by private U.S. lawyers and plaintiffs aimed at seizing Iranian assets linked to U.S. court judgments against Iran and its instrumentalities for supporting terrorist attacks against specific Americans. (Full disclosure: this writer has been an expert witness in many such cases.) Those judgments now total $46 billion. A case the Supreme Court is considering taking involves about a billion dollars transiting U.S. banks while en route between non-U.S. banks and destined for the CBI. Those funds were frozen and judged by the U.S. Second Court of Appeals in New York to be liable to seizure. The lawyers and plaintiffs involved are quite determined to pursue any Iranian funds that may be cleared through New York-based banks, which could complicate the use of U.S. dollars in Iran's trade.
The New York case was facilitated considerably by the Obama administration's tipping off the lawyers seeking the funds. Were it or the next administration to similarly cooperate with lawyers seeking to enforce U.S. court judgments, foreign financial institutions dealing with Iran could still face vigorous legal actions. Nothing in the JCPOA forecloses this possibility.
Highlighting Iranian Deceptive Practices
As noted above, since 2011 all Iranian financial institutions have been designated under Section 311 of the Patriot Act as being institutions of "primary money laundering concern," which requires U.S.-based financial institutions, including foreign-owned institutions, to take certain "special measures." This designation is about money laundering, not proliferation, and nothing indicates the laundering designation is going away.
Iranian financial institutions have a long history of engaging in multiple deceptive financial practices that flout international norms. Since 2007, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a thirty-four-member international organization created in 1989 to establish standards to combat money laundering and terrorism financing, has issued warnings about Iranian practices. Its most recent "Public Statement," of June 26, called "on its members and other jurisdictions to apply counter-measures to protect the international financial system from the on-going and substantial money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/FT) risks emanating from" Iran and North Korea. Foreign banks that ignore the FATF could well find themselves subject to U.S. regulatory scrutiny.
Maintaining Regulatory Pressure
If foreign financial institutions wish to learn exactly what activities they can and cannot engage in with Iranian banks, the U.S. Department of Treasury is not likely to give much satisfaction. The Treasury Department has historically been unwilling to issue legally binding assurances allowing certain activities to proceed, preferring to preserve the right to take legal action against banks in the event fresh information casts new light on particular transactions -- or if the department decides to change its attitude toward those transactions. While at times it has issued what some call "letters of comfort," the vague and nonbinding language actually provides little comfort. Given that major banks such as the French BNP Paribas paid billions in fines for activities they thought U.S. regulators did not then object to but only later regarded as violations, many banks may be reluctant to act based on such letters, even if they were issued.
And this tells only the federal government side of the story. The British Standard Chartered bank faced a serious threat to its New York banking license from New York's Department of Financial Services (DFS) over sanctions violations. At times, the DFS appears to have relished taking a tougher stance than the U.S. Treasury Department. Banks cannot be certain about what the DFS will do about Iran-related transactions. To be sure, paragraph 25 of the JCPOA states, "If a law at the state or local level in the United States is preventing the implementation of the sanctions lifting as specified in this JCPOA, the United States will take appropriate steps, taking into account all available authorities, with a view to achieving such implementation." But this language only encompasses the "sanctions lifting as specified in this JCPOA," rather than actions on the other grounds described above such as money-laundering and terrorism concerns.
After facing tens of billions of dollars in fines for sanctions violations or actions including improper handling of mortgages and manipulating interest rates and foreign exchange rates, many major international banks have adopted "derisking" initiatives to protect themselves. The derisking approach has led many major banks to abandon some lucrative markets. On this count, some may regard Iran as a marginal market at best, especially if Washington shows a strong will to go as far as permitted under the JCPOA. To be sure, Iran will almost certainly find smaller banks with less exposure to U.S. regulators willing to run the risks, such as the Ukrainian and Tunisian banks that have been handling the trade with Iran newly permitted under the interim nuclear accord. But such smaller banks will face serious challenges handling the volumes of trade finance desired by Iran, and they certainly cannot provide the long-term financing for which Iran is hoping.
How Much Pressure Will Iran Face?
Perhaps the most important barriers Iran will face to attracting more foreign businesses involve the country's own poor business environment, including the rampant corruption, the dysfunctional legal system, the frequent policy changes, and the blurred lines of responsibility that can subject firms to demands from many government actors. While particularly important as impediments to investment, these problems will also affect trade.
That said, U.S. sanctions could also remain an important barrier to normal Iranian trade with any country despite the nuclear deal if the administration were so minded. Some of the barriers Iran will face to normal foreign trade after the deal's implementation have received considerable attention, especially (1) the possibility that UN-EU-U.S. sanctions will snap back in the event of disputes about implementation and (2) the continued ban on nearly all direct trade with the United States. Less attention, however, has gone to the potential for many other continued U.S. sanctions on foreigners trading with Iran, although one exception is a detailed analysis in Tyler Cullis's policy memo from the National Iranian American Council, a strong supporter of the nuclear deal.
Paragraph 26 of the JCPOA states, "The United States will make best efforts in good faith to sustain this JCPOA and to prevent interference with the realisation of the full benefit by Iran of the sanctions lifting specified in Annex II." That carefully crafted sentence only says that Washington will make its best efforts regarding the sanctions lifting specified in Annex II. But Washington's pledges for Annex II sanctions lifting do not include the various issues described above, including secondary sanctions on foreign banks because of Iranian money laundering and support for terrorism.
The Obama administration has provided precious little public explanation of its plans for post-deal-implementation sanctions on banks dealing with Iran. The Obama team's silence in the face of extensive reporting that these sanctions are disappearing suggests that perhaps the sanctions will not be vigorously enforced. The criticism about how much Obama is rewarding Iran would look less plausible if the administration enunciated its plans to maintain these sanctions and, most especially, if it secured statements from European governments acknowledging that this is Washington's intent and is fully consistent with the JCPOA.
To the contrary, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has implied that Washington has not secured European buy-in for continued secondary sanctions and does not intend to impose then. In an August 13 New York Times op-ed, he wrote, "Imposing powerful secondary sanctions against those that refuse to follow our lead...would be a disaster...If we were to cut them off from the American dollar and our financial system, we would set off extensive financial hemorrhaging, not just in our partner countries but in the United States as well." Lew's statement follows the pattern of treasury secretaries warning of dire consequences for the U.S. economy and the entire international financial system if sanctions are toughened. In 2006, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson predicted that sanctions on the CBI would wreak havoc on global markets and the U.S. economy. When Geithner's 2010 warnings about comprehensive sanctions on the CBI -- which the Patriot Act designation was meant to forestall -- were overridden by the Senate in a 100-0 vote, the result, according to the Obama administration, was to lead Iran to return to negotiations and to offer concessions. For its part, the executive branch had followed its own pattern of warning about the consequences of sanctions only to trumpet them, once enacted, as a key to accomplishing its objectives. Perhaps this time when the treasury secretary cries wolf, the wolf is indeed at the door -- or perhaps not.
Even if the Obama team does little to retain the pressure on foreign financial institutions, the next U.S. administration could decide to be more proactive. Much could be done within the framework of the JCPOA because Washington has only pledged to take extremely modest steps. The failure of the Obama administration to clarify the meaning of various provisions -- which on their face appear to provide much sanctions relief but on close reading suggest that need not be the case -- has fed the critics' skepticism about what the Obama team plans to do.
**Patrick Clawson is director of research at The Washington Institute.

Half of Jerusalem's Palestinians Would Prefer Israeli to Palestinian Citizenship
David Pollock/Washington Institute/August 25/2015
Findings from a new poll suggest that those who care about democracy and peace should pay more attention to the desires of the Palestinians who actually live in Jerusalem, not just of those who claim to speak on their behalf from outside the city.
Jerusalem is one of the most sensitive issues in Arab-Israeli and Muslim-Jewish-Christian relations. Recent violent incidents in the city have kept it in the political and media spotlight. Yet for all the talk about it, only very rarely have its roughly 300,000 (overwhelmingly Muslim) Palestinians been asked what future they want. New research presented here fills that gap, in a most unexpected way.
In a mid-June poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (based in Beit Sahour, the West Bank), 52% of Palestinians living in Israeli-ruled East Jerusalem said they would prefer to be citizens of Israel with equal rights -- compared with just 42% who would opt to be citizens of a Palestinian state. This remarkable result confirms and extends a trend first observed five years ago.
In a similar poll in September 2010, one-third picked Israeli over Palestinian citizenship; by September 2011, that proportion had risen to 40%. As of today it has risen again to just over half. This is dramatically different from results in the West Bank or Gaza, where a mere 4% and 12%, respectively, would prefer Israeli citizenship. The latest poll was based on personal interviews by local survey professionals of a representative, geographic probability sample of 504 East Jerusalem Palestinians and comparable samples in the West Bank and Gaza, with a statistical margin of error of approximately 4.5% in each area.
In the earlier polls, East Jerusalem respondents mostly cited practical reasons for this preference: better jobs, income, health care and other social benefits, freedom of travel, and the like. Their Israeli residence permits ("blue identity cards") already provide such advantages over West Bank residents, and they increasingly want to retain those advantages as the Israeli economy prospers while the West Bank stagnates. Similarly, in the current poll, around half (47%) say they would take a good job inside Israel. But since such benefits are available to them today even without Israeli citizenship, social taboos and the great practical difficulties of applying for that citizenship mean that only a very small proportion have actually acquired that full formal status to date.
Their everyday access to Israel has probably also made Jerusalem's Palestinians more sanguine about that country's long-term future. A majority (62%) think Israel will still exist, as either a Jewish or a bi-national state, in 30 or 40 years -- compared with just 47% of West Bankers and 42% of Gazans who think so. They are also somewhat more aware of the city's history, if perhaps not so much as might be expected. Thirty percent of East Jerusalem's Palestinians, as against a mere 18% of West Bankers, say that there were Jewish kingdoms and temples in Jerusalem in ancient times.
In some other respects, too, East Jerusalem Palestinians have acquired relatively moderate attitudes toward Israel. A stunning 70% say they would accept the formula of "two states for two peoples -- the Palestinian people and the Jewish people." In the West Bank, the comparable figure is 56%; in Gaza, 44%. An equally noteworthy 40% in East Jerusalem say that "Jews have some rights to the land along with the Palestinians" -- as against just 13% in the West Bank or 11% in Gaza. And concerning Jerusalem itself, only 23% of its Palestinian residents insist on Palestinian sovereignty over the entire city -- just half the percentage with that view in either the West Bank or Gaza.
This does not mean that Jerusalem's Palestinians are moderate in every respect. For example, 55% say that even after a two-state solution, they would still want to "liberate all of historic Palestine," though not necessarily to expel or disenfranchise Israeli Jews. Combined with their comparatively widespread preference for Israeli citizenship, this may indicate a drift among East Jerusalem Palestinians toward a "one-state solution." Meanwhile, however, a majority (61%) also offer at least verbal support for "armed struggle and car attacks against the occupation." This figure is somewhat lower than among West Bankers or Gazans, but not by much.
Most surprising of all in this connection are the findings about partisan affinity. Fully 39% of East Jerusalem Palestinians say that Hamas "most closely represents your political affiliation." Possibly this is in part because they are relatively religious; 37% pick "being a good Muslim" as their first or second personal priority, from a list of ten diverse options. But even more East Jerusalemites (47%) say they are politically "independent." These numbers may also be somewhat skewed by the reality that Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA) are not allowed to operate officially in Jerusalem.
Interestingly, declared support for Hamas is only half as high in Gaza, whose residents have had to live under actual Hamas rule since 2007. And in the West Bank, where the PA rules and sometimes arrests Hamas activists, a mere 11% openly affiliate with that party. A plurality of 44% identify as "independent."
Beyond the intrinsic interest of these surprising survey findings, there may be several broader political lessons here. First, the findings suggest that benefits from practical coexistence may produce a more moderate mindset. Second, partisan affiliation may not be a good guide to underlying attitudes. And third, most important, those who care about both democracy and peace would do well to pay more attention to the desires of the Palestinians who actually live in Jerusalem, not just of those who claim to speak on their behalf from outside the city.
**David Pollock is the Kaufman Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of Fikra Forum.

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006 Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006

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