LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 09/15
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.august09.15.htm
Bible Quotation For Today/Canaanite
woman's Daughter Healing Miracle/Woman, great is your faith! Let it be done for
you as you wish.
Matthew 15/21-28: "Jesus left that place and went away to the district of Tyre
and Sidon. Just then a Canaanite woman from that region came out and started
shouting, ‘Have mercy on me, Lord, Son of David; my daughter is tormented by a
demon.’ But he did not answer her at all. And his disciples came and urged him,
saying, ‘Send her away, for she keeps shouting after us.’He answered, ‘I was
sent only to the lost sheep of the house of Israel.’But she came and knelt
before him, saying, ‘Lord, help me.’He answered, ‘It is not fair to take the
children’s food and throw it to the dogs.’ She said, ‘Yes, Lord, yet even the
dogs eat the crumbs that fall from their masters’ table.’Then Jesus answered
her, ‘Woman, great is your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish.’ And her
daughter was healed instantly."
Bible Quotation For Today/Of
this gospel I have become a servant according to the gift of God’s grace that
was given to me by the working of his power.
Letter to the Ephesians 03/01-13: "This is the reason that I Paul am a prisoner
for Christ Jesus for the sake of you Gentiles for surely you have already heard
of the commission of God’s grace that was given to me for you, and how the
mystery was made known to me by revelation, as I wrote above in a few words, a
reading of which will enable you to perceive my understanding of the mystery of
Christ. In former generations this mystery was not made known to humankind, as
it has now been revealed to his holy apostles and prophets by the Spirit: that
is, the Gentiles have become fellow-heirs, members of the same body, and sharers
in the promise in Christ Jesus through the gospel. Of this gospel I have become
a servant according to the gift of God’s grace that was given to me by the
working of his power. Although I am the very least of all the saints, this grace
was given to me to bring to the Gentiles the news of the boundless riches of
Christ, and to make everyone see what is the plan of the mystery hidden for ages
in God who created all things; so that through the church the wisdom of God in
its rich variety might now be made known to the rulers and authorities in the
heavenly places. This was in accordance with the eternal purpose that he has
carried out in Christ Jesus our Lord, in whom we have access to God in boldness
and confidence through faith in him. I pray therefore that you may not lose
heart over my sufferings for you; they are your glory."
LCCC
Latest analysis, editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
August 08-09/15
History of the Maronites/Courtesy of the Maronite Heritage Site/August
08/15
Question: "What is predestination? Is predestination biblical?/August
08/15
Walid Phares analysis on Taghier TV on US and Turkish talks on Northern Syria,
Kurds and minorities/August
08/15
Why I will vote against Iran deal/Charles Schumer/Times Of Israel Times/August
08/15
Ex-National Security Advisor: Iran nuclear deal likely will lead to use of
force/YAAKOV LAPPIN/J.Post/August
08/15
The ‘second Suez Canal’ battle/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/August
08/15
IS Top Command Dominated by Ex-Officers in Saddam's Army/AP/Naharnet/August
08/15
Sex Slaves, Beheadings and Twitter Terrorism/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/August
08/15
Kerry-Lavrov in the Gulf: The Countdown for Syria’s Endgame is on/Smir Altaqi/Esam
Aziz/Middle East Briefying/August
08/15
LCCC Bulletin titles for the
Lebanese Related News published on
August 08-09/15
Anti-trash Activists
Slam Officials in New Protest, Call for Mashnouq's Resignation
Salam Heads to One-Day Visit to Jordan Next Week
Kidnapped University Student Released on in Brital For $350,000 ransom
Aoun Accuses Qahwaji of 'Politicizing' Army, Urges Lebanese to Prepare for
Protests
Report: Protests Unlikely over Security Extensions Given Social, Security
Conditions
Report: Hizbullah to Announce Stand on Extension of Security Officials' Term on
Sunday
Road Blocked to Press for Unveiling Fate of Missing Tripoli Child
Lebanese Army Arrests Syrian Terrorist in Tripoli
LCCC Bulletin Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
August 08-09/15
Foreigners Rescued as Mali Hotel Siege Leaves Seven Dead
Second Arson Death Stirs Hamas Call to Confront Israel
Father of arson attack Palestinian toddler dies
Iran Disagreement Shakes Democratic Party Politics
Riyadh Says Mosque Suicide Bomber was Saudi
Saudi Foreign Minister to Visit Russia for Syria Talks
Turkey freezes assets of Saleh and Houthi leaders
Saudi FM calls for political solution to Yemen crisis
Iran rejects accusations about military site as 'lies'
Iran's military chief voices support for nuclear deal despite prior skepticism
Links From Jihad Watch Web site For Today
Former DIA director: Obama White House made “willful decision” to support
al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood in Syria
Iraqi Christian: Islamic State jihadis blinded me after I refused to convert to
Islam
Lawyers for Minnesota jihad suspects say Islamic State not terror organization
Florida jihadi’s family: Plot “just another of Suarez’s harmless phases”
Afghanistan: Jihadis murder 44, injure hundreds in wave of bombings
Jordanians “will join Islamic State because they learned in school that this is
Islam”
The Islamic State is like a dream come true for me and all Muslim people”
Ex-Soviet army officer who converted to Islam guilty on jihad terror charges
Robert Spencer in PJM: Why doesn’t the Pope go to Syria?
We are committed to being active participants in our society, but it has to be
on Islam’s terms”
FBI now sending some potential Islamic State jihadis to counseling
Anti-trash Activists Slam Officials
in New Protest, Call for Mashnouq's Resignation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/08
August/15/ “You Stink" campaign activists held a protest in downtown Beirut on
Saturday to shed light on the country's ongoing waste management crisis and to
pour their anger on officials for failing to find a solution to the problem. The
demonstrators, who gathered in Martyrs Square, criticized the authorities for
lacking the ability to resolve the garbage crisis that erupted when the landfill
in the town of Naameh, south of Beirut, was closed on July 17. The sweltering
heat and the stinking, rotting garbage in Beirut and Mount Lebanon provoked the
outcry from the activists who said the officials should be held accountable.They
called for the resignation of Environment Minister Mohammed al-Mashnouq and
shouted “the people want to bring down the regime.”“We are here today because we
are fed up and we can no longer see our country being robbed by corrupt”
officials, said a statement read by one of the activists. The statement called
for the collection of waste piling up on the streets as temperatures rise and
the country's infamous electricity cuts worsen. It also rejected dumping waste
randomly in certain areas. The protesters vowed not to back off on their demands
and said they will hold more demonstrations. Lebanon's waste management company
Sukleen is making a random collection on small scale, taking trash to two
temporary landfills, including one near Rafik Hariri International Airport. But
those have started to fill up. Nearby municipalities have refused to accept the
garbage of Beirut and Mount Lebanon. Some people have taken to paying for
private pickup truck owners to collect the garbage in front of their homes, who
dump it at night in unknown locations. The country has long lacked recycling
services or even basic trash sorting, exacerbating the problem. Germany has
offered to export Lebanon's trash by sea — an offer the government said it was
studying along with proposals for long term solutions such as garbage
incinerators and developing new landfills. But it does not seem to be in a
hurry, postponing the issue from one cabinet meeting to the next.
Salam Heads to
One-Day Visit to Jordan Next Week
Naharnet/08 August/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam is scheduled to travel to
Jordan next week on an official visit, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on
Saturday. It said that the premier is set to head to the kingdom on Wednesday to
chair the meetings of the joint Jordanian-Lebanese higher committee. The
meetings will be held in the Jordanian capital Amman. Salam will also hold talks
on his trip with King Abdullah II and meet with members of the Lebanese diaspora
before returning to Beirut that same day.
Kidnapped University Student Released on in Brital For
$350,000 ransom
Naharnet/08 August/15/A 20-year-old university student, who was kidnapped
earlier in the week, was on Saturday released on bail in the eastern Bekaa
Valley, the state-run News Agency reported. Marc al-Hajj Moussa was abducted by
armed men at dawn Thursday on a road in the Metn town of Mazraat Yashouh while
on his way home in Bikfaya. His car, a Toyota Land Cruiser, was later found in
the area of Majdel Tarshish. Moussa, who is a student at Balamand University,
was handed over to the army intelligence and then his father by members of the
Ismail and Jaafar families in the eastern town of Brital after he paid them a
ransom, MTV said. According to NNA, the ransom amounted to 350,000 dollars.
Aoun Accuses Qahwaji of 'Politicizing' Army, Urges Lebanese
to Prepare for Protests
Naharnet/08 August/15/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun launched on
Saturday a scathing attack against Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji, accusing
him of serving the interests of politicians instead of those of the nation. He
declared after an extraordinary meeting of the Change and Reform bloc: “Qahwaji
has politicized the army and we warn him against placing the military in
confrontation with the people.” The meeting was held following the extension of
the term of senior security officials on Thursday despite Aoun's objections. The
lawmaker accused the army of shortcomings in curbing the flow of arms in the
northern city of Tripoli and northeastern border town of Arsal, adding that
Hizbullah's “sacrifices for Lebanon are due to these shortcomings.”
“Had it not been for Hizbullah, Christians would face the same one as that of
those of Nineveh in Iraq,” remarked Aoun in reference to the persecution of
minorities at the hand of jihadists. Moreover, he warned Qahwaji against placing
the army in a confrontation with the people similar to when they last staged
protests, saying that he has staged a “coup, along with others” against
Lebanon's system. The MP called on “all Lebanese to prepare themselves to stage
demonstrations” against the cabinet and the corruption in the country.
He stated that the “government of garbage” has failed in its duties towards the
people, lamenting the ongoing waste disposal crisis and poor electricity and
water services throughout the country. “All Lebanese are expected to express
themselves during protests, which is a right preserved by the constitution,” he
declared. He stressed that the people hold the power in Lebanon, adding that
officials “derive their legitimacy from them.” Defense Minister Samir Moqbel
extended on Thursday the terms of the army commander, chief of staff and the
head of the Higher Defense Council despite months of objections by the FPM,
which rejects the extension of the tenures of high-ranking military and security
officials. In June, FPM supporters took to the street and staged a demonstration
near the Grand Serail in protest against its decision-making mechanism and in
demand of the restoration of the rights of Christians. Scuffles ensued between
the protesters and security forces guarding the Serail as the demonstrators
sought to approach the building.
Report: Protests Unlikely over Security Extensions Given
Social, Security Conditions
Naharnet/08 August/15/The extension of the terms of security
officials has been welcomed by members of the field, who ruled out the
possibility of escalation over the development, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper
on Saturday. Security sourced told the daily that they “did not sense any
popular sentiment” that may drive the people to the street over the extension.
“Such action is rejected for very critical social, economic, and security
conditions,” they explained. Moreover, they noted that the case “was tackled
from all sides by political decisions at a time when the army needs military and
moral support and when the country needs a lot of calm and stability to allow
the army to address greater missions at hand.” A prominent security authority
told al-Joumhouria meanwhile that the country is at a distance from major
regional political and diplomatic changes that may impact the Lebanese internal
scene, “which should therefore be ready to confront any of their negative
repercussions.”Defense Minister Samir Moqbel extended on Thursday the terms of
the army commander, chief of staff and the head of the Higher Defense Council
despite months of objections by the Free Patriotic Movement, which rejects the
extension of the tenures of high-ranking military and security officials. In
June, FPM supporters took to the street and staged a demonstration near the
Grand Serail in protest against its decision-making mechanism and in demand of
the restoration of the rights of Christians. Scuffled ensued between the
protesters and security forces guarding the Serail as the demonstrators sought
to approach the building. The FPM held an extraordinary meeting on Saturday
during which its chief, MP Michel Aoun, urged supporters to be prepared to stage
protests against corruption when the time comes.
Report: Hizbullah to Announce Stand on Extension of
Security Officials' Term on Sunday
Naharnet/08 August/15/ Hizbullah has reportedly requested that its lawmakers
refrain from making statements to the media on the recent extension of the term
of security officials, said al-Joumhouria on Saturday. It said that head of the
party's Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Mohammed Raad will announce
Hizbullah's stance on Sunday. The bloc had held its weekly meeting on Thursday,
but had not taken a position over the extension. Hizbullah's ally, the Free
Patriotic Movement, has long objected to the extension of the terms of security
officials. Defense Minister Samir Moqbel extended on Thursday the terms of the
army commander, chief of staff and the head of the Higher Defense Council
despite months of objections by the FPM, which rejects the extension of the
tenures of high-ranking military and security officials. The FPM held an
extraordinary meeting on Saturday during which its chief, MP Michel Aoun, urged
supporters to be prepared to stage protests against corruption when the time
comes.
Road Blocked to Press for Unveiling Fate of Missing Tripoli
Child
Naharnet/08 August/15/A road was blocked Friday evening in the northern city of
Tripoli to press for unveiling the fate of a child who has been missing since
Thursday. “The Qobbeh-Zgharta road was blocked with burning tires to press
security agencies to quickly unveil the fate of 13-year-old child Mohammed
Chahine,” state-run National News Agency reported. LBCI television said the
protest was organized by the child's family. NNA said Chahine has been missing
since 10:00 am Thursday.
Lebanese Army Arrests Syrian
Terrorist in Tripoli
Naharnet/08 August/15/The Lebanese army said on Saturday that it has arrested a
Syrian national in the northern city of Tripoli for belonging to terrorist
organizations. An army communique said Mohammed Assaad Awad was apprehended in
the area of al-Mankoubine.
It accused the terrorist of participating in attacks on soldiers in the
northeastern border town of Arsal. The communique said the man was referred to
the appropriate authorities to take the necessary measures against him.
Foreigners Rescued as Mali Hotel Siege Leaves Seven Dead
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/08 August/15/ Five foreigners and several other
hostages were freed overnight after they were held by gunmen who raided a hotel
in central Mali in an attack that left at least seven people dead, military
sources said early Saturday. At least five Malian soldiers are believed to have
been killed in the operation to end the siege at the Hotel Byblos in Sevare,
which is popular with U.N. peacekeeping staff. A source told AFP that "a number
of hostages" were freed by Malian forces, including the five foreigners,
although their nationalities were not specified. Located only a few kilometers
from the regional capital Mopti, Sevare is a key staging post on the road to the
desert north which fell to Islamic extremists in 2012. The UN peacekeeping
mission (MINUSMA) said in a statement that "reports indicate that a member of
the international personnel associated with MINUSMA was killed in the attack".
Sources told AFP that three South Africans, a Frenchman and a Ukrainian had been
registered at the hotel before the attack. A Russian diplomat said a Russian was
among the hostages. The gunmen had stormed the hotel at around 7:00 am (0700
GMT) on Friday, according to the government. One of the attackers was wearing an
explosives belt, one of the military sources said.Malian forces cordoned off the
area but their efforts to dislodge the gunmen were complicated by the presence
of hostages, a source said Friday. The Malian army brought the siege to an end
early Saturday. The military operation "has ended and the hotel has been
cleared", one of the military sources said.
The government said Friday there were "five dead, two injured" on the Malian
army side and two of the attackers were killed although it was not clear whether
the military toll included the MINUSMA staff member. The U.N. mission said it
had sent a Malian rapid response team from the capital Bamako -- 620 kilometers
(385 miles) to the south -- and reinforced security at Sevare-Mopti airport. It
said the initial target of the attack was a Malian military site. "The
attackers, who were pushed back by the Malian Armed Forces, then took refuge in
a hotel," MINUSMA said. A Malian military source had earlier said at least eight
people had been killed with "three bodies lying in front of the hotel next to a
burned-out minibus." A spokesman for the Russian embassy in Mali told the RIA
Novosti agency that the Russian hostage was an employee of UTAir, an aviation
company that works with the U.N. peacekeeping mission. A Ukrainian hostage
managed to escape from the hotel and said up to five gunmen had led the
hostage-taking. French President Francois Hollande said French citizens could
also "possibly" be caught up in the attack. No one has claimed responsibility
for the attack, which comes as Mali battles a resurgence in jihadist violence,
two years after a French-led offensive routed three Islamist factions from most
parts of the country. France has more than 1,000 soldiers based in northern Mali
as part of regional anti-terrorist efforts. The hotel attack was the third
assault in just a week in Mali, which is still struggling to restore stability
despite a landmark peace deal agreed in June to end years of unrest and ethnic
divisions. Islamist militants have kidnapped a number of foreigners in Mali in
recent years, at least two of whom are still being held hostage by Al-Qaida's
front group in the region AQIM. AQIM and two allied Islamist groups seized
control of Mali's north in 2012 before being ousted by French and Malian forces
in January 2013. The insurgents have continued to mount sporadic attacks from
their bases in the desert, mainly in the north. But the attacks have spread
since the beginning of the year to the center of the country and to the south
near the borders with Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso.
Second Arson Death Stirs Hamas Call to Confront Israel
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/08 August/15/The father of a Palestinian toddler
killed when Jewish extremists firebombed their West Bank home died of his
injuries Saturday, sparking Hamas calls for an "open confrontation" with Israel.
The arson attack in the village of Duma led to angry Palestinian protests and an
international outcry over Israel's failure to curb violence by hardline Jewish
settlers. Saad Dawabsha died in hospital in the southern Israeli city of
Beersheba where he was being treated for third degree burns for the past eight
days, Palestinian official Ghassan Daghlas said. Dawabsha's wife Riham and
four-year-old son Ahmed are still fighting for their lives in another Israeli
hospital after the July 31 arson attack which killed 18-month-old Ali. Israeli
media reported signs of improvement in Ahmed's condition, although his life
remained in danger. They said doctors at the Tel Hashomer hospital near Tel Aviv
on Friday removed the respirator to which he had been attached and that he
opened his eyes, recognising those around him.
Israeli hospital's spokespersons could be reached for comment on Saturday, the
Jewish sabbath. The family's small brick and cement home in Duma was gutted by
the fire and a Jewish Star of David spray-painted on a wall along with the words
"revenge" and "long live the Messiah". "Nothing will stop these murderous
settler attacks and... we cannot wait until they come into our villages and our
homes," Hossam Badran, spokesman of the Palestinian Islamic movement Hamas,
wrote on Facebook from his base in Qatar on Saturday. "Our people in the West
Bank have only one choice: that of open and comprehensive confrontation against
the occupation."
Thousands at funeral
Israeli public radio reported that the army was on alert for possible unrest in
the occupied territory and for "Palestinian revenge attacks."The United Nations
has called for restraint. "Political, community and religious leaders on all
sides should work together and not allow extremists to escalate the situation
and take control of the political agenda," wrote U.N. peace coordinator Nickolay
Mladenov. "I reiterate the secretary general's call for the perpetrators of this
heinous terrorist act, which was universally condemned, to be brought swiftly to
justice," he added. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has condemned the
attack as "terrorism in every respect", and vowed to spare no effort in catching
those responsible. He ordered a crackdown on Jewish extremism that has seen
three suspects detained. But as father Saad Dawabsha was buried in Duma on
Saturday afternoon, a family friend charged Israeli authorities were complicit
in such violence. "It's a crime committed by the settlers but with the agreement
of the occupation," Anwar Dawabsha told AFP. "It isn't possible that Israel with
all its army and its intelligence services still has no information on this
attack," he said. Several thousand mourners turned out to lay Saad
Dawabsha to rest, many carrying Palestinian flags, others with portraits of
little Ali and the rest of the family.
International Criminal Court Earlier a post mortem was performed on the
body at An-Najah University Hospital in the nearby city of Nablus. A Palestinian
official told AFP the pathologist's report would be submitted in evidence to
back up a complaint to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. The
Palestinians on Monday submitted a request to the ICC to probe the firebombing
and "settler terrorism". At a meeting with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas
on Wednesday, Arab foreign ministers agreed to call on the U.N. to protect the
Palestinians from "terrorist crimes" by Jewish settlers. Israel this week used a
controversial form of detention without trial normally invoked for Palestinians
against an alleged Jewish extremist, following the outcry over the firebombing.
Father of arson attack Palestinian toddler dies
By AFP | Nablus/Saturday, 8 August 2015/The father of a Palestinian toddler
killed last week after their home was firebombed by suspected Jewish extremists
has died of his injuries in an Israeli hospital, a Palestinian official said
Saturday. The arson attack on the family's home in the occupied West Bank that
killed 18-month-old Ali Saad Dawabsheh sparked an international outcry over
Israel's failure to curb violence by hardline Jewish settlers. The child's
father, Saad, had been being treated for third-degree burns at an Israeli
hospital, where a spokeswoman last week described his condition as "critical".
Early Saturday Ghassan Daghlas, a Palestinian Authority official for the north
of the West Bank which includes the village of Duma where the Dawabsheh family
lived, announced the father had succumbed to his injuries. "Saad Dawabsheh died
and plans are underway for his funeral in Nablus," Daghlas said. The Dawabsheh
family in Duma also confirmed the death. Mother Riham and four-year-old son
Ahmed were also in an Israeli hospital, where a spokeswoman described their
condition last week as life-threatening. The family's small brick and cement
home in Duma was gutted by fire early on July 31, and a Jewish Star of David
spray-painted on a wall along with the words "revenge" and "long live the
Messiah".Israel this week used a controversial form of detention without trial
normally invoked for Palestinians against an alleged Jewish extremist, following
an outcry over the attack.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the attack
as "terrorism in every respect", and vowed to spare no effort in bringing the
perpetrators to justice.
Iran Disagreement Shakes Democratic Party Politics
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/08 August/15/The White House responded with
ill-disguised anger Friday to news that Chuck Schumer, a key Democratic ally in
the Senate, will oppose the landmark nuclear deal with Iran. In a statement --
purposely announced at the same time as the blockbuster Republican presidential
debate Thursday -- Schumer said planned inspections of Iran's nuclear sites were
not intrusive enough and would allow it to become a threshold nuclear state.The
loss of Congress's most influential Jewish member is a blow to President Barack
Obama, who is trying to rally enough votes in the Senate to protect the
agreement from being overturned. "It makes the deal much more vulnerable both
now in terms of congressional support but also with next president who will have
to follow through," said Julian Zelizer of Princeton University. White House
spokesman Josh Earnest described Schumer's decision as "disappointing" but "not
particularly surprising."But the civil tone belied seething resentment among
Obama allies. It is resentment that could have a lasting impact on who leads the
Democratic Party in the Senate after current leader Harry Reid retires in 2016.
"Senator Schumer siding with the GOP against Obama, (Hillary) Clinton, and most
Democrats will make it hard for him to lead the Dems in '16," said Dan Pfeiffer,
a long-time Obama senior advisor who left the administration in March. While
allies, Schumer and Obama have disagreed on several major issues over the
years.Schumer voted for the war in Iraq, suggested Obama's signature healthcare
reform was a mistake and now opposes the Iran deal. That was the last straw for
some. "Chuck Schumer, who said it was a mistake to pass Obamacare, now comes out
again the Iran Deal. This is our next Senate leader?" asked Jon Favreau, a
former Obama speechwriter. Schumer's former roommate, Senator Dick Durbin had
also been in the running to take the coveted top Democratic spot in the Senate.
He may now see an opening to press his case. Depending on the outcome of the
2016 election the person holding that post will either run Senate business as
the majority leader -- if the Democrats regain the majority -- or lead the
opposition if they do not. Previous holders of the post include Lyndon Johnson,
who went on to become president. The White House said it was up to Senate
Democrats to decide their leader, but dropped heavy hints about what they
thought of Schumer's actions."I certainly wouldn't be surprised if there are
individual members of the Senate Democratic caucus that will consider the voting
record of those who say they would like to lead the caucus," said Earnest.
Earnest also made several references to Schumer's backing for the 2003 invasion
of Iraq. The New York Times, Schumer's home-state newspaper was more scathing,
saying he had "cast his lot with Republican presidential candidates." Action
group MoveOn.org fumed, saying they would withhold $10 million in contributions
to candidates who undermine Obama's diplomacy with Iran. The ill, Zelizer said,
will "could cost him considerable support among Senate Democrats who understand
this is political blow to the administration." There was, however, some praise
for Schumer. Hardline Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz praised
Schumer's "bravery" and urged him to lead the charge against the deal. It is an
endorsement that even a besieged Schumer could perhaps do without.
Riyadh Says Mosque Suicide Bomber was Saudi
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/08 August/15/Saudi Arabia said Saturday that the
suicide bomber who detonated an explosives-packed vest in a mosque inside a
police headquarters, killing 15 people, was one of its own citizens. Thursday's
bombing of a mosque frequented by members of a police special weapons and
tactics unit in the southern city of Abha was claimed by the Islamic State
group. The Saudi interior ministry named the bomber as Yussef bin Sleiman bin
Abdullah al-Sleiman, aged 21. A ministry spokesman, quoted by El-Ekhbariya state
television, said 11 of those killed were policemen and four were Bangladeshis
who worked at the police compound. IS affiliate "Al-Hijaz Province" said in an
online statement that it was behind the attack, the latest -- and deadliest --
against security forces in Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. It had
identified the bomber as Abu Sinan al-Najdi and vowed to carry out fresh strikes
against "tyrants in the Arabian Peninsula... in the coming days". There was no
explanation as to why different names were given, but the one published by IS
appeared to be an alias. IS, which controls swathes of Syria and Iraq, has
expanded across the region, claiming responsibility for attacks on two Shiite
mosques in Saudi Arabia in May and a third in Kuwait in June.
Saudi Foreign Minister to Visit Russia for Syria Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/08 August/15/Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir
will visit Moscow on Tuesday to discuss Syria conflict and the Islamic State
group with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign ministry
said Saturday. The two ministers last met in Qatar on August 3 when Lavrov,
Jubeir and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held a three-way meeting, with the
situation in Syria topping the agenda. The ministers will continue "a discussion
on ways to resolve the crisis in Syria," the Russian foreign ministry said.
Moscow said topics would include the "sharp growth in strength of various
extremist groups, primarily the so-called Islamic State". "The ministers will
discuss the possibility of Russia-Saudi cooperation in fighting terrorism, which
is in the interests of both countries," the ministry said. It said they would
discuss Russia's proposal to create a "broad international coalition to fight
the Islamic State gunmen inside Syria." Moscow said the ministers would also pay
"great attention" to the conflict in Yemen where a military coalition led by
Saudi Arabia is fighting Iran-backed Huthi rebels and discuss strategies for a
"speedy resolution".
Turkey freezes assets of Saleh and Houthi leaders
By Staff writer | Al Arabiya News/Saturday, 8 August 2015/Turkey has frozen the
assets of Yemen’s deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh and Houthi militia
leaders, the Anatolia news agency reported. The sanctions freeze any assets,
bank accounts and safe deposit boxes that they might have in Turkey and will be
kept in place until February 26, 2016. This means that Saleh, his son Ahmad Ali
Abdullah Saleh, and Houthi leaders Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, Abdullah Yahya Al-Hakim
and Abd Al-Khaliq Al-Houthi have all been blacklisted, the agency said. The
decision by Ankara came after U.N. Security Council sanctions were put on the
same five men for threatening peace in Yemen.
Saudi FM calls for political solution to Yemen crisis
By Staff Writer | Al Arabiya News/Saturday, 8 August 2015/Saudi Foreign Minister
Adel Al-Jubeir said on Friday that the only way to solve the Yemeni crisis
should be through political means. Speaking in a joint press conference with his
Italian counterpart Paolo Gentiloni in Rome, Jubeir said: "We still believe that
the only way is a political solution, built on the foundations of the national
dialogue and the Gulf initiative and Security Council resolution 2216." Saudi
Arabia has been leading an Arab air campaign against Houthi militias in Yemen
since March this year. The operation is aimed at restoring security to the
country and supporting legitimate President Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi, who is now
living in exile in Riyadh. Jubeir added: "The Houthis are a part of the Yemeni
people, and they have a role to play in the future of Yemen, but this should not
include the formation of militia groups outside the government's framework. "We
are ready to support the political process in Yemen, and to work with our allies
in the Gulf Cooperation Council and our friends around the world, to implement a
settlement which helps Yemen to overcome economic problems in the future."
Iran rejects accusations about military site as 'lies'
Reuters/Ynetnews/Published: 08.08.15/Israel News
US think tank says movement of vehicles near Parchin does not appear like road
work, as Tehran claims, but rather attempts to clean up site before IAEA
inspectors arrive. Iran's foreign minister said on Saturday that accusations
about activity at its Parchin military site were "lies" spread by opponents of
its landmark nuclear deal with world powers clinched last month. A prominent US
think-tank on Friday questioned Tehran's explanation for activity at its Parchin
military site visible in satellite imagery, saying the movement of vehicles did
not appear related to road work. "We said that the activities in Parchin are
related to road construction," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted
on Saturday as saying by the IRNA state news agency. "They (opponents of the
deal) have spread these lies before. Their goal is to damage the agreement," he
added. The US-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said
this week that Iran might be sanitizing its Parchin military site, where some
countries suspect experiments may have taken place in a possible atomic weapons
program. Iran denied it, saying it was part of road works near the Mamloo Dam.
"Commercial satellite imagery does not support the Iranian explanation," the
think tank said in a statement. "ISIS analyzed commercially available satellite
imagery taken on July 12, 19, and 26, 2015 but did not find any visible
signatures related to road work on the road near the dam." It said it would make
little sense for Iran to "park vehicles three kilometers south of the dam and at
the one site that would create intense concern and suspicion about Iran's
intentions to comply with the recently negotiated (deal)." Parchin is a site to
which the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
requested access as part of the July 14 nuclear accord between Iran and six
major powers, which include the United States. ISIS suggested Iran could be
engaged in cleanup work before IAEA inspectors arrive. Attempts to sanitize the
site could complicate the work of the IAEA, whose job it is to judge whether
Iran's past atomic activity was linked to developing weapons, including through
access to Parchin. "There is no support in the imagery for the Iranian
explanation," ISIS new analysis said. "Iran's explanation appears to be that the
vehicles at the suspect site were there inadvertently, but this explanation
strains believability."
The speaker of Iran's parliament also dismissed the think-tank's suggestions.
"This is an artificial dispute to distract the world. There are some movements
at Parchin but trying to expand those activities to the military facility and
making a fuss about it is like some fairy tale," Ali Larijani was quoted on
Saturday by the Fars news agency as saying. "Israelis are not happy about the
deal and they will do anything to stop it," he added. Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has been pushing US lawmakers to oppose the nuclear agreement, which
he considers a threat to his country's survival. Some pro-Israel groups have
been spending millions of dollars on an advertising campaign to persuade members
of the US Congress to reject the deal in the autumn.
Iran's military chief voices support for nuclear deal
despite prior skepticism
REUTERS/J.Post/08/08/2015/Iran's military chief and a close ally to the Supreme
Leader expressed his support on Saturday for the country's nuclear deal with
world powers, a key endorsement for the accord that faces strong opposition from
hardliners. Conservative members of the Iranian parliament and chief commander
of the elite Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, have sharply criticized
the deal, saying it undermined the Islamic Republic's military capabilities.
While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not publicly approved or
disapproved of the deal, he has told officials and experts to take legal
procedures to ensure the other side does not breach it, saying some of the world
powers involved were untrustworthy. Major General Hassan Firouzabadi listed 16
"advantages" to the deal, which Iran signed in Vienna in July, without detailing
any drawbacks. "The armed forces have the most concerns about the effect of the
deal on Iran's defense capabilities ... but this agreement and the U.N. Security
Council resolution have many advantages that the critics ignore," Firouzabadi
was quoted as saying by Fars News Agency. The agreement, a major initiative for
both US President Barack Obama and Iran's pragmatic President Hassan Rouhani,
has been met with resistance from hardliners in both countries.
"The tone of the UN Security Council resolution has changed compared to the
previous ones. Regarding Iran's missile activities, it doesn't order but only
asks for Iran's compliance," Firouzabadi said, referring to an international
resolution passed in the wake of the deal.
Iran's procedures for ratifying the accord are not known in any detail. Whatever
the eventual role of parliament or the National Security Council, the deal will
have to be approved by Khamenei, the country's highest authority.
History of the Maronites
Courtesy of the Maronite Heritage Site
On the mountains of Lebanon, in this
mystical land, in these deep valleys, among these white mountains, in the land
of honey and milk, in the nation of the Cedar and the Alphabet, in the
Phoenician land, there the Maronite Church, the smallest of all the churches,
has grown like a mustard seed and became a tree, so that several churches and
denominations have come to be sheltered in its branches. The history of the
Maronites was sealed by persecution and martyrdom for the sake of Faith,
Freedom, and Independence. Who are the Maronites? What is the Maronite Church?
The Maronites are those Christians who gathered around a monastery called Bet
Moroon or the House of Maron built in 452 on the Orontes River, after the
Council of Chalcedon and the request of Pope Leo.
Those Christians who defended their faith in Jesus Christ, human and divine,
were called Maronites after a hermit priest, St. Maron, who was a great saint in
that region of Syria.
St. Maron
St. Maron lived on the mountains of Cyrrhus, near Antioch, in the 4th century
AD, in the open air. God bestowed on him the gift of healing, which made his
fame spread in the entire region. St. Maron died
around the year 410 AD. His disciples continued his mission. Abraham the hermit,
the apostle of Lebanon, converted the Phoenician inhabitants of the mountains of
Lebanon. Jebbet Bsharre and Mnaytra adopted Christianity. The Phoenician pagans
became Maronite Christians.
Bet Moroon
In 451, the fathers of the Church held a meeting at the Council of Chalcedon.
They clarified the teaching of the Church concerning the person of Jesus Christ.
They proclaimed that Jesus Christ was both human and divine. The Maronites
strongly defended the Council of Chalcedon, which made the Monophysites their
bitter enemies. Pope Leo requested to build a monastery for the disciples of St.
Maron on the Orontes River. The monastery was called Bet Moroon. The conflict
between the Maronites and the Monophysites led to a strong persecution that left
350 martyrs and many refugees in 517. The Maronites informed Pope Hormizdes
about their struggle for the sake of faith and their martyrs. The pope of Rome
sent them a letter to strengthen the Maronites describing the Maronite martyrs
as soldiers of Jesus Christ and members of his Living Body.
St. John Maron
Around 685, the Maronites appointed a Patriarch, St. John Maron, who became the
first Patriarch on the Maronite Church, which made the Byzantine Emperor furious
about that. The appointing of the Patriarch was a very important event in the
history of the Maronites, which led to another persecution that left 500
martyrs. The monastery of Bet Moroon was damaged. Many Maronites left their
lands in Syria and joined their brethren in the mountains of Lebanon. In the
valleys of Lebanon, the Maronite Church began to grow.
The Mountains of Lebanon
In 936, the monastery of Bet Moroon and other Maronite monasteries were
completely destroyed in Syria. That persecution was aimed at Christians. They
were persecuted for the sake of Jesus Christ. The Maronites and their Patriarch
had to take a very difficult decision: to leave the rich plains of Syria and
take the mountains of Lebanon as a refuge. The Aramaic/ Syriac Maronites joined
the Phoenician Maronites and the Mardaites in Lebanon. Protected by the
mountains of Lebanon, the Maronites and their Patriarch were organizing their
Church away from persecution.
The Crusades
For 350 years, the Maronites have been isolated in the valleys and mountains of
Lebanon until the beginning of the crusades. When the Crusaders invaded the
East, they were surprised when they found out about the existence of the
Maronites. The Pope of Rome himself was astonished. During the Crusades Period,
the Maronites succeeded in building relationships with France (especially after
the visit of St Louis, King of France) and the Pope of Rome.
The Mamlooks
At the end of the crusades and after the defeat of the Crusaders, the Maronites
were attacked by the Mamlooks. Between 1268 and 1283, persecution began with the
Mamlooks, who attacked the strongholds of the Maronites sowing destruction in
Ehden, Bsharre, Hadath El-Jibbet, Meifook, and other villages. They captured the
Maronite Patriarch and sent him to his death. Between 1291 and 1305, the
Mamlooks destroyed Kesrwan and the Maronites were forbidden to enter it. The
Maronites had to learn how to survive and to protect their freedom. But in 1357,
they became divided against themselves: The Maronites of Byblos-Batroun against
those of Bsharre. Consequently, the Mamlooks invaded Byblos and Batroun,
destroying their villages, and burning their Patriarch alive in 1367. Many
people escaped to Cyprus. The Maronites lost their freedom. Because of the many
disasters that happened in the world in that period of time (13th- 16th
century), especially in the Middle East, the Pope of Rome, Leo X described the
Maronite Church as a rose among thorns, an impregnable rock in the sea, unshaken
by the waves and fury of the thundering tempest.
The Ottomans & Independence
In 1516, the Ottomans defeated the Mamlooks. The Maronites were granted
protection by France. They expanded in Lebanon and mixed with other minorities.
The Maronites built churches, founded religious orders, formed schools, and
cultivated arid lands. The valleys and the mountains were filled with monks and
hermits. Many families converted to Christianity, joined the Maronite Church,
and participated in the table of the Lord. But between 1845 and 1860, hatred was
incited by the Ottomans, who worked so hard to break the Maronites’ spirit of
independence. Dozens of villages, churches, and monasteries were completely
destroyed. Thousands were martyred or displaced, and many immigrated. The
persecution returned between 1914 and 1918, when the Ottomans blocked the roads
to the mountains of Lebanon causing a human disaster. Tens of thousands of
people died of famine and diseases, and thousands immigrated. After the First
World War, Lebanon was liberated from the Ottomans. France, Lebanon’s
compassionate mother, entered the mountains of Lebanon. The Maronite Patriarch
left for Paris. He arrived on October 25th, 1919. He requested the recognition
of Lebanon as an independent country. On September 1st, 1920, General Gouraud
proclaimed the State of Greater Lebanon in the presence of the Maronite
Patriarch. In 1943, Lebanon won its independence.
Persecution & Diaspora
Peace did not last too long. Between 1975 and 1990, Lebanon experienced a
destructive war. Tens of thousands died in wars, and thousands immigrated. The
Pope of Rome supported the Maronites through his prayers. The Maronites defended
their country with great courage, but in 1990, they divided against themselves,
fighting each other. Consequently, their enemies invaded them, bombarding their
cities and villages, sending their leaders into exile, and putting others in
jail. The Maronites lost their independence and hundreds of thousands left the
mountains of Lebanon and immigrated. Freedom became threatened. But God did not
abandon his people. He consoled the Maronites, giving them three saints: St.
Sharbel, St. Rafqa, and St. Nimatullah Hardini. In 1997, the Pope of Rome, John
Paul II visited Lebanon to give hope to the Lebanese people and particularly to
the Maronites. He said, "Lebanon is more than a country, it is a message". Due
to the severe persecution of the Church in Lebanon (especially the Maronite
Church), many were scattered throughout the world, which made the Church grow
outside Lebanon. That’s how the Early Church grew outside Jerusalem. The
Maronite Church became international. She does not only include Phoenician
Maronites, Aramaic/Syriac Maronites, Mardaites, Arab Maronites, but also
American Maronites, European Maronites, Brazilian Maronites, Australian
Maronites, etc…
Since 2000, the Maronite Patriarch, Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, has been launching
appeals for the restoration of Lebanon’s freedom and sovereignty. On September
2, 2004, France and the USA sought a new UN resolution asking Lebanon’s
neighbors to withdraw their soldiers and respect Lebanon’s sovereignty.
http://www.maronite-heritage.com/History.php
Question: "What is predestination? Is predestination
biblical?"
Answer: Romans 8:29-30 tells us, “For those God foreknew he also predestined to
be conformed to the likeness of his Son, that he might be the firstborn among
many brothers. And those he predestined, he also called; those he called, he
also justified; those he justified, he also glorified.” Ephesians 1:5 and 11
declare, “He predestined us to be adopted as his sons through Jesus Christ, in
accordance with his pleasure and will…In him we were also chosen, having been
predestined according to the plan of him who works out everything in conformity
with the purpose of his will.” Many people have a strong hostility to the
doctrine of predestination. However, predestination is a biblical doctrine. The
key is understanding what predestination means, biblically.
The words translated “predestined” in the Scriptures referenced above are from
the Greek word proorizo, which carries the meaning of “determine beforehand,”
“ordain,” “to decide upon ahead of time.” So, predestination is God determining
certain things to occur ahead of time. What did God determine ahead of time?
According to Romans 8:29-30, God predetermined that certain individuals would be
conformed to the likeness of His Son, be called, justified, and glorified.
Essentially, God predetermines that certain individuals will be saved. Numerous
scriptures refer to believers in Christ being chosen (Matthew 24:22, 31; Mark
13:20, 27; Romans 8:33, 9:11, 11:5-7, 28; Ephesians 1:11; Colossians 3:12; 1
Thessalonians 1:4; 1 Timothy 5:21; 2 Timothy 2:10; Titus 1:1; 1 Peter 1:1-2,
2:9; 2 Peter 1:10). Predestination is the biblical doctrine that God in His
sovereignty chooses certain individuals to be saved.
The most common objection to the doctrine of predestination is that it is
unfair. Why would God choose certain individuals and not others? The important
thing to remember is that no one deserves to be saved. We have all sinned
(Romans 3:23), and are all worthy of eternal punishment (Romans 6:23). As a
result, God would be perfectly just in allowing all of us to spend eternity in
hell. However, God chooses to save some of us. He is not being unfair to those
who are not chosen, because they are receiving what they deserve. God’s choosing
to be gracious to some is not unfair to the others. No one deserves anything
from God; therefore, no one can object if he does not receive anything from God.
An illustration would be a man randomly handing out money to five people in a
crowd of twenty. Would the fifteen people who did not receive money be upset?
Probably so. Do they have a right to be upset? No, they do not. Why? Because the
man did not owe anyone money. He simply decided to be gracious to some.
If God is choosing who is saved, doesn’t that undermine our free will to choose
and believe in Christ? The Bible says that we have the choice—all who believe in
Jesus Christ will be saved (John 3:16; Romans 10:9-10). The Bible never
describes God rejecting anyone who believes in Him or turning away anyone who is
seeking Him (Deuteronomy 4:29). Somehow, in the mystery of God, predestination
works hand-in-hand with a person being drawn by God (John 6:44) and believing
unto salvation (Romans 1:16). God predestines who will be saved, and we must
choose Christ in order to be saved. Both facts are equally true. Romans 11:33
proclaims, “Oh, the depth of the riches of the wisdom and knowledge of God! How
unsearchable his judgments, and his paths beyond tracing out!”
**Recommended Resources: Evangelism and the Sovereignty of God by J.I. Packer
and Logos Bible Software.
Walid Phares analysis on Taghier TV on US and Turkish talks
on Northern Syria, Kurds and minorities
Face Book/Dr.Phares's Face Book/08.08.15/A comprehensive analysis by Professor
Walid Phares on Taghier TV on US and Turkish talks about interventions in
Northern Syria, regarding Kurdish and minorities areas as well as regarding the
Arab Sunni opposition, ISIS, other. Phares argued that Turkey has two objectives
in Northern Syria, "one is to push back against ISIS as part of the
international campaign, and the other objective is to push back against the PKK
and its Kurdish allies. It seeks a US backing on these two goals."
Phares added that "while Washington backs Ankara in its decision to fight ISIS,
including in northern Syria, it has concerns about a Turkish military operation
in Kurdish areas in northern Syria, for fear of a generalized fight against all
Kurdish factions and other minorities in the region. For Congress has
specifically warned from any weakening of minorities in that part of Syria.""But
the Administration is endorsing a Turkish support to Arab Sunni opposition
groups in the northern areas of Syria, making a distinction between north East
where most of the Kurdish and other minorities are and north West inhabited
mostly by Arab Sunni. In short US support for a Turkish intervention is limited
to north Western Syria to back Sunni opposition to the Syrian regime, though in
a limited way, but no formal US support for an operation in north Eastern Turkey
for fear of an all out conflict with Kurds and other minorities."Phares argued
that "Washington is not endorsing a full fight to topple Assad at this point
because of the Iran deal but at the same is still trying to identify the
opposition forces to be supported in order to bring all these parties to peace
talks. That is a difficult task as the ideological factor can transfer Islamist
elements from the ranks of the armed opposition to the ranks of Nusra or ISIS,
complicating the ability to identify a stable opposition force."
Why I will vote against Iran deal
By Charles Schumer/Times Of Israel Times/August 08/15
The Senator expected to be the next Democratic party head says, in a statement:
The risk that Iran will use the deal to pursue its nefarious goals is too great
Every several years or so a legislator is called upon to cast a momentous vote
in which the stakes are high and both sides of the issue are vociferous in their
views.
Over the years, I have learned that the best way to treat such decisions is to
study the issue carefully, hear the full, unfiltered explanation of those for
and against, and then, without regard to pressure, politics or party, make a
decision solely based on the merits.
I have spent the last three weeks doing just that: carefully studying the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, reading and re-reading the agreement and its
annexes, questioning dozens of proponents and opponents, and seeking answers to
questions that go beyond the text of the agreement but will have real
consequences that must be considered.
Advocates on both sides have strong cases for their point of view that cannot
simply be dismissed. This has made evaluating the agreement a difficult and
deliberate endeavor, and after deep study, careful thought and considerable
soul-searching, I have decided I must oppose the agreement and will vote yes on
a motion of disapproval.
While we have come to different conclusions, I give tremendous credit to
President Obama for his work on this issue. The President, Secretary Kerry and
their team have spent painstaking months and years pushing Iran to come to an
agreement. Iran would not have come to the table without the President’s
persistent efforts to convince the Europeans, the Russians, and the Chinese to
join in the sanctions. In addition, it was the President’s far-sighted focus
that led our nation to accelerate development of the Massive Ordinance
Penetrator (MOP), the best military deterrent and antidote to a nuclear Iran. So
whichever side one comes down on in this agreement, all fair-minded Americans
should acknowledge the President’s strong achievements in combatting and
containing Iran.
In making my decision, I examined this deal in three parts: nuclear restrictions
on Iran in the first ten years, nuclear restrictions on Iran after ten years,
and non-nuclear components and consequences of a deal. In each case I have
asked: are we better off with the agreement or without it?
In the first ten years of the deal, there are serious weaknesses in the
agreement. First, inspections are not “anywhere, anytime”; the 24-day delay
before we can inspect is troubling. While inspectors would likely be able to
detect radioactive isotopes at a site after 24 days, that delay would enable
Iran to escape detection of any illicit building and improving of possible
military dimensions (PMD) – the tools that go into building a bomb but don’t
emit radioactivity.
Furthermore, even when we detect radioactivity at a site where Iran is illicitly
advancing its bomb-making capability, the 24-day delay would hinder our ability
to determine precisely what was being done at that site.
Even more troubling is the fact that the U.S. cannot demand inspections
unilaterally. By requiring the majority of the 8-member Joint Commission, and
assuming that China, Russia, and Iran will not cooperate, inspections would
require the votes of all three European members of the P5+1 as well as the EU
representative. It is reasonable to fear that, once the Europeans become
entangled in lucrative economic relations with Iran, they may well be inclined
not to rock the boat by voting to allow inspections.
Additionally, the “snapback” provisions in the agreement seem cumbersome and
difficult to use. While the U.S. could unilaterally cause snapback of all
sanctions, there will be instances where it would be more appropriate to
snapback some but not all of the sanctions, because the violation is significant
but not severe. A partial snapback of multilateral sanctions could be difficult
to obtain, because the U.S. would require the cooperation of other nations. If
the U.S. insists on snapback of all the provisions, which it can do
unilaterally, and the Europeans, Russians, or Chinese feel that is too severe a
punishment, they may not comply.
Those who argue for the agreement say it is better to have an imperfect deal
than to have nothing; that without the agreement, there would be no inspections,
no snapback. When you consider only this portion of the deal – nuclear
restrictions for the first ten years – that line of thinking is plausible, but
even for this part of the agreement, the weaknesses mentioned above make this
argument less compelling.
Second, we must evaluate how this deal would restrict Iran’s nuclear development
after ten years.
Supporters argue that after ten years, a future President would be in no weaker
a position than we are today to prevent Iran from racing to the bomb. That
argument discounts the current sanctions regime. After fifteen years of relief
from sanctions, Iran would be stronger financially and better able to advance a
robust nuclear program. Even more importantly, the agreement would allow Iran,
after ten to fifteen years, to be a nuclear threshold state with the blessing of
the world community. Iran would have a green light to be as close, if not closer
to possessing a nuclear weapon than it is today. And the ability to thwart Iran
if it is intent on becoming a nuclear power would have less moral and economic
force.
If Iran’s true intent is to get a nuclear weapon, under this agreement, it must
simply exercise patience. After ten years, it can be very close to achieving
that goal, and, unlike its current unsanctioned pursuit of a nuclear weapon,
Iran’s nuclear program will be codified in an agreement signed by the United
States and other nations. To me, after ten years, if Iran is the same nation as
it is today, we will be worse off with this agreement than without it.
In addition, we must consider the non-nuclear elements of the agreement. This
aspect of the deal gives me the most pause. For years, Iran has used military
force and terrorism to expand its influence in the Middle East, actively
supporting military or terrorist actions in Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq,
and Gaza. That is why the U.S. has labeled Iran as one of only three nations in
the world who are “state sponsors of terrorism.” Under this agreement, Iran
would receive at least $50 billion dollars in the near future and would
undoubtedly use some of that money to redouble its efforts to create even more
trouble in the Middle East, and, perhaps, beyond.
To reduce the pain of sanctions, the Supreme Leader had to lean left and bend to
the moderates in his country. It seems logical that to counterbalance, he will
lean right and give the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the hardliners
resources so that they can pursue their number one goal: strengthening Iran’s
armed forces and pursuing even more harmful military and terrorist actions.
Finally, the hardliners can use the freed-up funds to build an ICBM on their own
as soon as sanctions are lifted (and then augment their ICBM capabilities in 8
years after the ban on importing ballistic weaponry is lifted), threatening the
United States. Restrictions should have been put in place limiting how Iran
could use its new resources.
When it comes to the non-nuclear aspects of the deal, I think there is a strong
case that we are better off without an agreement than with one.
Using the proponents’ overall standard – which is not whether the agreement is
ideal, but whether we are better with or without it – it seems to me, when it
comes to the nuclear aspects of the agreement within ten years, we might be
slightly better off with it. However, when it comes to the nuclear aspects after
ten years and the non-nuclear aspects, we would be better off without it.
Ultimately, in my view, whether one supports or opposes the resolution of
disapproval depends on how one thinks Iran will behave under this agreement.
If one thinks Iran will moderate, that contact with the West and a decrease in
economic and political isolation will soften Iran’s hardline positions, one
should approve the agreement. After all, a moderate Iran is less likely to
exploit holes in the inspection and sanctions regime, is less likely to seek to
become a threshold nuclear power after ten years, and is more likely to use its
newfound resources for domestic growth, not international adventurism.
But if one feels that Iranian leaders will not moderate and their unstated but
very real goal is to get relief from the onerous sanctions, while still
retaining their nuclear ambitions and their ability to increase belligerent
activities in the Middle East and elsewhere, then one should conclude that it
would be better not to approve this agreement.
Admittedly, no one can tell with certainty which way Iran will go. It is true
that Iran has a large number of people who want their government to decrease its
isolation from the world and focus on economic advancement at home. But it is
also true that this desire has been evident in Iran for thirty-five years, yet
the Iranian leaders have held a tight and undiminished grip on Iran,
successfully maintaining their brutal, theocratic dictatorship with little
threat. Who’s to say this dictatorship will not prevail for another ten, twenty,
or thirty years?
To me, the very real risk that Iran will not moderate and will, instead, use the
agreement to pursue its nefarious goals is too great.
Therefore, I will vote to disapprove the agreement, not because I believe war is
a viable or desirable option, nor to challenge the path of diplomacy. It is
because I believe Iran will not change, and under this agreement it will be able
to achieve its dual goals of eliminating sanctions while ultimately retaining
its nuclear and non-nuclear power. Better to keep U.S. sanctions in place,
strengthen them, enforce secondary sanctions on other nations, and pursue the
hard-trodden path of diplomacy once more, difficult as it may be.
For all of these reasons, I believe the vote to disapprove is the right one.
***The above is the text of a statement released by Senator Sen. Charles
Schumer.
Ex-National Security Advisor: Iran nuclear deal likely will
lead to use of force
YAAKOV LAPPIN/J.Post/08/06/2015
The Vienna agreement signed between world powers and Iran will "likely and
necessarily lead to the use of force against Iran, at some stage or another, in
order to halt its race toward a nuclear weapons program," the former national
security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov
Amidror, has warned.
In a detailed paper published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at
Bar Ilan University, where Amidror is a senior research fellow, he wrote, "It is
clear that the agreement was signed in order to delay the Iranian nuclear bomb
program, not to end it. And thus, when the program rears its head again it will
be a problem several times more serious and far harder to deal with."
He added, however, that "there is no cause for hysteria. The agreement will not
bring about Israel’s downfall, and in the best case scenario may even buy Israel
some time to better prepare for confronting the Iranian challenge. Nevertheless,
the map of reality should be read correctly, and not through rose-tinted
glasses... The reality facing Israel (and the world) following the signing of
the agreement is significantly more threatening than before."
Amidror has served 36 years in senior IDF posts, including as commander of the
Military Colleges, military secretary to the minister of defense, director of
the Intelligence Analysis Division in Military Intelligence, and chief
intelligence officer of the Northern Command.In his latest paper, he argued that
it is impossible to claim that the agreement should be supported even if it is
imperfect, since it has put the region on a path to military confrontation with
a future Iran that will be significantly more powerful.
This "will take place in far worse conditions than before the agreement, against
a far stronger Iran," he cautioned.
"The Vienna agreement has made the situation more complex and dangerous, not
less so. Even if Iran completely abides by the terms of the agreement, when
restrictions and sanctions come to an end fifteen years hence, it will emerge
much stronger, militarily and economically. This situation will almost assuredly
lead to the use of force against Iran, because Iran undoubtedly will try to
produce nuclear weapons; be much better able to withstand foreign pressures; and
hold significant sway across the Middle East. The conflict that will ensue will
take place in conditions far worse from a Western perspective than before the
agreement, pitting the West (and/or Israel) against a much-stronger Iran," he
wrote.
Looking at the agreement itself, Amidror said it allows Iran to keep its
military nuclear program, achieve sanctions relief, and gain international
legitimacy.
"As a basis for discussion it is important to emphasize that the Iranian nuclear
program has no civilian element, and no justification other than as a military
program. This is the consensus of all the international experts, some of whom
will only say so privately, but most of whom are explicit in this. There is no
serious expert who thinks that Iran is developing its capabilities for civilian
purposes," said Amidror.
"On the basis of this understanding, which was accepted by the American experts
as well, American policy was initially clear: the
agreement should dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities. This was the term used
by the Americans themselves. But at some stage the US decided to move from a
policy aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear capability, to a policy aimed at
delaying Iran’s ability to achieve nuclear weapons by ten to fifteen years," he
added.
From the moment that the policy in Washington changed, and there was no longer
any intention of actually dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it was clear
to the Americans that it would be impossible to include Israel in the
negotiations. The US therefore shifted to conducting secret negotiations that it
hid from Israel, he recounted.
"As soon as the US decided to make do with delaying Iran’s getting the bomb, by
a fixed time period, then Israel was left on the outside – not because of the
strained relations between the president and the prime minister, but because of
significant differences of opinion. Subsequently, although the American
negotiators did make use of Israeli experts, Israel was not involved in the
central deliberations," Amidror said.
Now, Israel must maintain its freedom of action, the former national security
adviser str
"The fact that the powers signed an agreement must not be allowed to paralyze
Israel. The country’s security is at stake, and on this issue we should take the
advice of the current president of the US: 'Israel must be able to defend
itself, by itself; even if the agreement makes this a more complex proposal."
Amidror predicted that Iran will keep to the agreement during its early stages
of implementation of one to two years.
"During this period Iran’s supreme interest will be the lifting of sanctions.
Around 60% of the agreement deals with the lifting of
sanctions and the dismantling of the mechanisms used to enforce them. The
removal of sanctions will allow Iran to rebuild and significantly strengthen its
economy as billions will flow into Iran, even though a proportion will be lost
to the dark abyss of entrenched Iranian corruption," he wrote.
"The lifting of sanctions will also serve to release a great amount of Iran’s
energy and money which can be redirected toward furthering its interests in the
Middle East and beyond. Here, the beneficiaries will be Iran’s allies -
Hezbollah, Hamas, the Alawites in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. For all these
reasons it can be expected that, initially, Iran’s efforts will be invested in
removing the burden of sanctions and becoming stronger, both internally and
externally."
After this initial stage, two possible and realistic scenarios emerge. In the
first scenario, Iran will feel sufficiently strengthened to begin to cheat, "
initially on peripheral issues, and then as they gain confidence, on more
substantial issues."
Simultaneously, as other problems arise elsewhere in the world, "the quality of
intelligence about Iran will deteriorate," Amidror said. "After a while, once it
is seen that Iran is indeed keeping to the agreement, there will naturally be a
slow but steady transferal of intelligence resources to other burning
problems... Against a state with which there is a signed agreement, intelligence
operations are conducted at a lower level of risk. A complicated operation that,
if discovered, might embarrass the US will be authorized for a hostile,
dangerous state, but not for one with which a signed agreement exists."
"The result," he said, "will be potentially disastrous for the agreement."
"It is clear that Iranian cheating will not take place at the declared
facilities which are under IAEA inspection, but at sites unfamiliar to the
international community, whose location can only be discovered through gathering
high-quality intelligence. The combination of the American concession on
surprise inspections of such sites, and the inevitable decline in intelligence
quality, offers an excellent foundation for successful Iranian cheating," he
said.
"The IAEA, for its part, will be as unwilling as in the past to make use of
external intelligence (even when presented with it) in order to conduct
non-agreed inspections of sensitive facilities, out of fear of being accused of
acting as an agent of Israel or the US. Hence it will need to invest a great
deal of time and effort in order to build an independent dossier that will stand
up to scrutiny, which will be sufficient for it to conduct more confrontational
inspections at undeclared facilities. It is difficult to see how the IAEA might
develop such capabilities."
All of this has led Amidror to cast doubt on the American claim that “a year
will be sufficient in order to respond appropriately” to
Iranian cheating.
"It is not difficult to imagine US intelligence staff presenting information
about Iranian violations and being rebuffed by decision-makers, using learned
explanations. This would continue until they provide the impossible 'smoking
gun,' or until it is simply too late. In most similar cases intelligence
services have needed more than a year from the moment at which a violation
begins in order to identify it, understand it, and persuade the decision makers
about it, and for these to then decide and act," he warned.
"Based on the experiences in almost all similar cases in the past, it must be
assumed with a high degree of probability that if the Iranians make an effort to
cheat and to hide the evidence, it is almost certain that they will be able to
develop their first nuclear device before the West can respond."
Alternatively, Iran will abide by the agreement to the letter, until the end of
the 10 - 15 year sunset clause. "They will not cheat, but will use the time to
expand their knowledge and capabilities, in theory and in practice," he wrote.
"In such a scenario it is reasonable to assume that at the end of the period,
after more than a decade, Iran will have the expertise to produce centrifuges
that are 10 or 20 times faster. This is a very realistic prospect, and seemingly
would not represent a violation of the agreement, as long as it is done with the
appropriate caution," Amidror added.
Since the embargo on conventional weapons will be lifted after five years, the
Iranians will work to significantly improve their anti-aircraft defenses. They
can expect help from Russia, which needs the money to be gained from these
projects, which are defensive in nature and therefore “acceptable.”
Three years later the embargo on the Iranian missile project will also be
lifted, and Iran will make every effort to progress in its development and
production of precise missiles, particularly long-range ones that would allow it
to threaten Europe initially (at a very early stage), and later the US.
According to Amidror, there is little doubt that within ten years, and certainly
once the embargo is lifted, Iran will achieve these capabilities. It will be
better protected from any aerial threat, and able to carry out missile strikes
on many areas of the world.
"In parallel, determined efforts will be made to develop the Iranian economy so
that, after a decade, it will be able to withstand outside pressures. For
example, Iran will stockpile spare parts for sensitive systems, Iranian banks
will hold more foreign currency, and there will be more partnerships with large
international companies – making any future sanctions program more difficult.
In short, all the lessons will be learned from the last sanctions regime, and
Iran will be better prepared for a similar situation in
the future," he argued.
Hezbollah will receive thousands of precise missiles, while enjoying Iranian
backing and Hamas will receive more aid. These organizations will feel stronger
being supported by the new regional superpower, Iran, and will thus be less
hesitant to act. And of course, Iran’s widespread terror network around the
globe (according to reports from the US State Department) will be more active
than ever, as an irritant and a deterrent, he added.
Answering President Obama's question of what the alternative is to the Vienna
agreement, Amdiror said that "there is a clear answer. The alternative was
increasing the pressure of sanctions, conducting stubborn negotiations, and
making serious preparations for military action that would crystallize all
options on the table. Together, these would achieve a better agreement... Why
the six powers agreed to a bad agreement is an interesting historical question.
In the meantime, we are left to deal with its consequences, which for Israel,
and in my opinion for most of the world, are extremely dangerous."
The ‘second Suez Canal’ battle
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/Saturday, 8 August 2015
The Muslim Brotherhood considers itself at war with the Egyptian regime. This
week, they launched a huge campaign that accompanied the inauguration ceremony
of the “second Suez Canal.” Their sarcastic comments underestimated the new
canal and were mentioned in many news pieces and social media posts on Twitter
and Facebook. We know that the opposition is in conflict with the government of
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, but we did not realize how far the gap is between the two.
The Brotherhood could not stand there being a new Suez Canal without their
involvement, which is why the group launched a relentless campaign in Arab and
foreign media, stating that this is not a canal, but rather merely a fruitless
“branch” that was not worth the investment. It also claimed that president Sisi
was not behind this achievement, and that the whole project was the idea of the
ousted President Mohammad Mursi. In the end, the canal was dug and Egyptians
enjoyed the lavish ceremony that followed. For the first time in the history of
the canal, there will be a faster two-way traffic. The project was done in
record time: less than a year from planning to execution.
Trying to turn the Suez Canal into a lost Egyptian battle will make the
Brotherhood worthless, if they still have any worth left
We knew the Muslim Brotherhood to be the most experienced opposition party and
group. They are known for their ability to manage their battles by promoting
their ideas and distorting their opponents’ image. However, this time, they seem
to have chosen a battle doomed to fail. They usually choose widely important
subjects such as financing flour and bread, the problems of public transport,
power outages, unemployment, etc. In brief, they usually choose negative issues
that can rally people around the group. Nevertheless, there is no reason to
complain about the new Suez Canal as it represents a different challenge. I
believe that the majority of Egyptians consider it as a national project, not
belonging to the president or his government, or even the political opposition!
The unbiased citizen sees the new canal as more than a waterway; they are proud
and optimistic about it. Due to the MB’s sarcasm and antagonist campaign,
millions of Egyptians rallied around the government in the face of the
Brotherhood.
Infographic: What you need to know about the 'New Suez Canal.' (Design by Farwa
Rizwan/ Al Arabiya News)
Paradoxically, the canal during Mursi’s era reflected ambiguity, chaos and fear.
People were afraid that ships might come under fire, this is why, many of them
were forced to go through southern Africa, around the Cape of Good Hope; thus,
insurance companies raised their prices. Today, the canal reflects the political
situation in Egypt. People are tired of political instability and conflicts.
They want to see tangible results and not just promises from the government. The
new canal has become a political symbol, not to mention that it will double the
revenues of the country. Amid the opposition’s antics, terrorism and domestic
and regional circumstances, the Egyptian government could claim that it is not
strong and that it needs to put MB leaders in prison to counter terrorist
attacks in Sinai. But it has guaranteed the fact that it dug a new canal with
the support of allies who chose to invest in the project.
Forget Toshka, think Suez
Every leader wants to leave a strong mark during his term of office and
President Sisi made an intelligent move when choosing this project. The Suez
Canal does not serve as a political project which aims to raise spirits and
enhance the government’s image. The new Suez Canal is a tangible project,
critical for international routing and has economic perks. It is also essential
for the promotion of Egypt’s role regionally and internationally.
Egypt needs to move on to a new word. Indeed, the last major Egyptian scheme
during the past ten years was the “Toshka lake” project for agriculture that
dried before even seeing the light, in addition to several planned touristic
cities. Those who are developing plans for the canal are not only aiming to
increase the number of ships crossing it, but their objective is also to
transform its zone into a huge industrial worksite for ships that also offer
important navigation services for both the Mediterranean sea and the Red sea.
The Suez Canal has always been the object of battles, but Egypt was always
against the enemy. Trying to turn the Suez Canal into a lost Egyptian battle
will make the Brotherhood worthless, if they still have any worth left, because
it is a national project.
For the world, the canal is also a strategic waterway with an international
importance that has increased since corridors and crossings now make dangerous
political tools. It is also vital for the crossing of tankers, cargo vessels and
warships since it saves as many as ten days at sea by using it instead of
sailing around South Africa. The Suez Canal also represents the cohesion and
resilience of the new Egyptian state, a year after Sisi came to power and made a
promise to build the second Suez Canal.
Now, the “battle of the second Suez Canal” has ended with the conclusion of
festivities and the navigation of ships in front of the people of Suez.
IS Top Command Dominated by Ex-Officers in Saddam's Army
AP/Naharnet/August 08/15/While attending the Iraqi army's
artillery school nearly 20 years ago, Ali Omran remembers one major well. An
Islamic hard-liner, he once chided Omran for wearing an Iraqi flag pin into the
bathroom because it included the words "God is great."
"It is forbidden by religion to bring the name of the Almighty into a defiled
place like this," Omran recalled being told by Maj. Taha Taher al-Ani. Omran
didn't see al-Ani again until years later, in 2003. The Americans had invaded
Iraq and were storming toward Baghdad. Saddam Hussein's fall was imminent. At a
sprawling military base north of the capital, al-Ani was directing the loading
of weapons, ammunition and ordnance into trucks to spirit away. He took those
weapons with him when he joined Tawhid wa'l-Jihad, a forerunner of al-Qaida's
branch in Iraq. Now al-Ani is a commander in the Islamic State group, said Omran,
who rose to become a major general in the Iraqi army and now commands its 5th
Division fighting IS. He kept track of his former comrade through Iraq's tribal
networks and intelligence gathered by the government's main counter-terrorism
service, of which he is a member.
It's a common trajectory.
Under its leader, Iraqi jihadi Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State group's
top command is dominated by former officers from Saddam's military and
intelligence agencies, according to senior Iraqi officers on the front lines of
the fight against the group, as well as top intelligence officials, including
the chief of a key counter-terrorism intelligence unit. The experience they
bring is a major reason for the group's victories in overrunning large parts of
Iraq and Syria. The officers gave IS the organization and discipline it needed
to weld together jihadi fighters drawn from across the globe, integrating terror
tactics like suicide bombings with military operations. They have been put in
charge of intelligence-gathering, spying on the Iraqi forces as well as
maintaining and upgrading weapons and trying to develop a chemical weapons
program. Patrick Skinner, a former CIA case officer who has served in Iraq, said
Saddam-era military and intelligence officers were a "necessary ingredient" in
the Islamic State group's stunning battlefield successes last year, accounting
for its transformation from a "terrorist organization to a proto-state."
"Their military successes last year were not terrorist, they were military
successes," said Skinner, now director of special projects for The Soufan Group,
a private strategic intelligence services firm. How officers from Saddam's
mainly secular regime came to infuse one of the most radical Islamic extremist
groups in the world is explained by a confluence of events over the past 20
years — including a Saddam-era program that tolerated Islamic hard-liners in the
military in the 1990s, anger among Sunni officers when the U.S. disbanded
Saddam's military in 2003, and the evolution of the Sunni insurgency that
ensued. The group's second-in-command, al-Baghdadi's deputy, is a former
Saddam-era army major, Saud Mohsen Hassan, known by the pseudonyms Abu Mutazz
and Abu Muslim al-Turkmani, according to the intelligence chief. Hassan also
goes by Fadel al-Hayali, a fake name he used before the fall of Saddam, the
intelligence chief told The Associated Press. Like others, he spoke on condition
of anonymity to discuss the intelligence.
During the 2000s, Hassan was imprisoned in the U.S.-run Bucca prison camp, the
main detention center for members of the Sunni insurgency, where al-Baghdadi
also was held. The prison was a significant incubator for the Islamic State
group, bringing militants like al-Baghdadi into contact with former Saddam
officers, including members of special forces, the elite Republican Guard and
the paramilitary force called Fedayeen.
In Bucca's Ward 6, al-Baghdadi gave sermons and Hassan emerged as an effective
organizer, leading strikes by the prisoners to gain concessions from their
American jailers, the intelligence chief said. Former Bucca prisoners are now
throughout the IS leadership. Among them is Abu Alaa al-Afari, a veteran Iraqi
militant who was once with al-Qaida and now serves as the head of IS's "Beit
al-Mal," or treasury, according to a chart of what is believed to be the group's
hierarchy provided to the AP by the intelligence chief. Al-Baghdadi has drawn
these trusted comrades even closer after he was wounded in an airstrike earlier
this year, the intelligence chief said. He has appointed a number of them to the
group's Military Council, believed to have seven to nine members — at least four
of whom are former Saddam officers. He brought other former Bucca inmates into
his inner circle and personal security. Saddam-era veterans also serve as
"governors" for seven of the 12 "provinces" set up by the Islamic State group in
the territory it holds in Iraq, the intelligence chief said. Iraqi officials
acknowledge that identifying IS leadership is an uncertain task. Besides
al-Baghdadi himself, the group almost never makes public even the pseudonyms of
those in its hierarchy. When leaders are killed, it's often not known who takes
their place — and several have been reported killed multiple times, only to turn
up alive. Figures are believed to take on new pseudonyms, leaving it unclear if
a new one has emerged or not.
"IS's military performance has far exceeded what we expected. The running of
battles by the veterans of the Saddam military came as a shock," a brigadier
general in military intelligence told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity
to discuss the sensitive topic. "Security-wise, we are often left unable to know
who replaces who in the leadership. We are unable to infiltrate the group. It is
terrifying."
Estimates of the number of Saddam-era veterans in IS ranks vary from 100 to 160
in mostly mid- and senior-level positions, according to the officials.
Typically, they hail from Sunni-dominated areas, with intelligence officers
mostly from western Anbar province, the majority of army officers from the
northern city of Mosul and members of security services exclusively from
Saddam's clan around his hometown of Tikrit, said Big. Gen. Abdul-Wahhab al-Saadi,
a veteran of battles against IS north and west of Baghdad.
For example, a former brigadier general from Saddam-era special forces, Assem
Mohammed Nasser, also known as Nagahy Barakat, led a bold assault in 2014 on
Haditha in Anbar province, killing around 25 policemen and briefly taking over
the local government building.Many of the Saddam-era officers have close tribal
links to or are the sons of tribal leaders in their regions, giving IS a vital
support network as well as helping recruitment. These tribal ties are thought to
account, at least in part, for the stunning meltdown of Iraqi security forces
when IS captured the Anbar capital of Ramadi in May. Several of the officers
interviewed by the AP said they believe IS commanders persuaded fellow tribesmen
in the security forces to abandon their positions without a fight.
Skinner, the former CIA officer, noted the sophistication of the Saddam-era
intelligence officers he met in Iraq and the intelligence capabilities of IS in
Ramadi, Mosul and in the group's de facto capital of Raqqa in Syria. "They do
classic intelligence infiltration. They have stay-behind cells, they actually
literally have sleeper cells," Skinner said. "And they do classic
assassinations, which depends on intelligence," he said, citing a wave of
assassinations in 2013 that targeted Iraqi police, army, hostile tribal leaders
and members of a government-backed Sunni militia known as Sahwa. Knowing who to
assassinate and how to get to them requires good information, Skinner said, and
the IS obviously knew how to acquire it.
One initiative that eventually fed Saddam veterans into IS came in the mid-1990s
when Saddam departed from the stringent secular principles of his ruling Baath
party and launched the "Faith Campaign," a state-sponsored drive to Islamize
Iraqi society. Saddam's feared security agencies began to tolerate religious
piety or even radical views among military personnel, although they kept a close
watch on them and saw to it they did not assume command positions.At the time,
the move was seen as a cynical bid to shore up political support among the
religious establishment after Iraq's humiliating rout from Kuwait in the 1991
Gulf War and the Kurdish and Shiite uprisings that followed. "Most of the army
and intelligence officers serving with IS are those who showed clear signs of
religious militancy during Saddam days," the intelligence chief said. "The Faith
Campaign ... encouraged them."
In the run-up to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, Saddam publicly invited foreign
mujahedeen to come to Iraq to resist the invaders. Thousands came and Iraqi
officials showed them off to the media as they were trained by Iraqi
instructors. Many stayed, eventually joining the insurgency against American
troops and their Iraqi allies.
After the collapse of the Saddam regime, hundreds of Iraqi army officers,
infuriated by the U.S. decision to disband the Iraqi army, found their calling
in the Sunni insurgency. In its early stages, many insurgent groups were
relatively secular. But Islamic militants grew in prominence, particularly with
the creation and increasing strength of al-Qaida in Iraq. Some Sunnis were
radicalized by bitterness against the Shiite majority, which rose to power after
Saddam's fall and which the Sunnis accuse of discriminating against them.
Al-Qaida in Iraq was initially led by a Jordanian militant, Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, and had a strong foreign presence in its leadership. But after
al-Zarqawi's death in a 2006 U.S. airstrike, his Iraqi successor, Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi, began to bring in more Iraqis, particularly former Saddam officers.
That process was accelerated when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took over after his
predecessor was killed in a 2010 airstrike.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's first two deputies, who each played a major role in
setting up what would become its sweep over Syria and Iraq, were both Saddam-era
officers, according to those interviewed by the AP. They were Sameer al-Khalifawy,
an air force colonel killed in fighting in Syria in 2014, and Abdullah el-Bilawy,
a former intelligence officer who was killed in Mosul by the Iraqi military in
May 2014, a month before the city fell to the Islamic State group. He was
replaced by the current deputy, Hassan. "It's clear that some of these
(Saddam-era officers) must have been inside the core of the jihadist movement in
the Sunni triangle from the beginning," said Michael W.S. Ryan, a former senior
executive at the State Department and Pentagon, referring to the Sunni-dominated
area that was the most hostile to American forces in Iraq. "Their knowledge is
now in the DNA of ISIS," he said, using an alternate acronym for the extremist
group. "This melding of the Iraqi experience and what we might call the Afghan
Arab experience became the unique ISIS brand," said Ryan, now a senior fellow at
the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank. "That brand ultimately
became more successful in Iraq than al-Qaida in Iraq ... and, at least for now,
stronger in Syria than al-Qaida."
Sex Slaves, Beheadings and Twitter Terrorism
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/August 8, 2015
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6226/beheadings-twitter-terrorism
"If European countries accept a wave of migrants, there will be terrorists among
them. ... By accepting the migrants, we strongly facilitate the Islamic State's
expansion to Europe." — Czech President Miloš Zeman.
"We are committed to being active participants in our society, but it has to be
on Islam's terms, without compromising our own principles and values. Democracy
is antithetical to Islam... The way forward for Muslims in Denmark is to resist
the anti-Islamic integration policy and the aggressive foreign policy pursued by
successive governments in this country." — Hizb-ut-Tahrir.
"If you talk about immigration, you are a xenophobe. If you talk about security,
you are a fascist. If you talk about Islam, you are an Islamophobe." — French MP
Henri Guaino.
"We cannot lose this war because it is fundamentally a war of civilization. It
is our society, our civilization that we are defending." — French Prime Minister
Manuel Valls.
In Austria, a 26-year-old Bosnian immigrant named Alen Rizvanović drove his SUV
at high speed through the main shopping areas of Graz, Austria's second-largest
city, and rammed into a crowd. He then got out of his vehicle and began stabbing
bystanders with a large knife. The June 21 attack left three people dead and 34
others injured.
Police were quick to rule out a religious motive and insisted that the attack
was a random act of violence perpetrated by a deranged killer, but a subsequent
investigation found that Rizvanović was a devout Muslim with many links to
radical Islam.
On June 16, the Criminal Court of Vienna found ten Muslims guilty of attempting
to join the Islamic State in Syria. A Turkish man accused of organizing
transportation for the group of nine native Chechens, aged between 17 and 27,
received a three-year jail term, while others got prison terms of between 19
months and three years. The men were arrested by Austrian border police in
August 2014 as they were attempting to travel to Syria via Turkey.
The convictions came just weeks after a 14-year-old Turkish boy who downloaded
bomb-making plans onto his Playstation console was sentenced to two years'
detention after pleading guilty to terrorism charges. The boy, who was living in
Sankt Pölten in northeast Austria, had also established contacts with jihadists
linked to the Islamic State. Sixteen months of the sentence were suspended. The
boy will serve what remains of the eight-month term in a juvenile detention
center.
More than 200 Austrian citizens and residents have joined jihadist groups in the
Middle East; 30 have been killed and around 70 have returned.
In Belgium, police on June 8 carried out 21 coordinated raids of suspected
Islamist militants, mostly of Chechen origin, in Antwerp, Bredene, Louvain,
Namur and Ostend. Some of those investigated were known to have received
jihadist training in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria, but police found no
evidence to confirm suspicions that they were planning an attack. Initially, 16
people were arrested, but later, all but two were released.
In Brussels, Françoise Schepmans, the mayor of the Molenbeek-Saint-Jean district
of the capital, initiated dismissal proceedings against a police officer
identified as Mohamed N. after he wrote in a debate on Facebook that he would
kill "each and every Jew." Using the pseudonym Bebeto Gladiateur, the police
officer wrote: "The word Jew itself is dirty. If I were in Israel, frankly, I
would do to the Jews what they do with the Palestinians — slaughter each and
every one of them." Schepmans said: "These statements shock me. I've never been
ambiguous about those issues. I cannot accept that a municipal police officer
has that attitude."
In Britain, a 22-year-old female refugee from Iraq was sentenced to
three-and-a-half years in prison for "twitter terrorism." Alaa Esayed, from
Kennington, South London, was sentenced at the Old Bailey after pleading guilty
to encouraging terrorism and disseminating a terrorist publication. Between June
2013 and May 2014, she posted on an open account to her 8,240 followers more
than 45,000 tweets in Arabic, many of them encouraging violent jihad. Her
account, which included a profile image of a woman in a burka and holding a
Kalashnikov, was listed by Al-Qaeda as among the 66 most important jihadi
accounts.
In Manchester, 33-year-old Iqbal Ali of Oldham was sentenced to life in prison
for using threats and violence to force four women to serve as his sex slaves in
a harem. Ali, allegedly as part of a 14-year campaign to "sleep with as many
women as possible," subjected the women to beatings, physical punishment and
public humiliation if they disobeyed him. He was caught when one of the women
received hospital treatment for severe neck injuries after she collapsed in a
pharmacy.
In Lancashire, 34-year-old Mohammad Liaqat was sentenced to two years in prison
after he stormed into the Mount Carmel Roman Catholic High School in Accrington
and attacked the headmaster over a dispute about the school's policy on beards.
Liaqat said he was angered by the school's decision to ban two 14-year-old
Muslim pupils from lessons because they refused to shave off their beards.
Liaqat's own children were not involved in the case. He later turned up at the
St. Oswald's RC Primary School, also in Lancashire, and attacked the principal
there. Liaqat has been banned from having contact staff at four schools in the
Accrington and Burnley areas.
More news about Islam in Britain during June 2015 can be found here.
In Cyprus, Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides confirmed that a 26-year-old
Lebanese-Canadian man — who was arrested after authorities found almost two tons
of ammonium nitrate in his basement — was part of a Hezbollah bomb plot to
attack Israeli and Jewish targets on the island. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said the case was proof that Iran, which backs Hezbollah, continues to
foment terrorism in the region.
In the Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia canceled a scheduled Czech-Saudi economic
forum to protest against alleged anti-Islam statements by Czech officials. Czech
President Miloš Zeman has issued statements in which he linked Islam with
violence. In remarks on International Holocaust Remembrance Day in January, the
70-year-old president said: "The Islamic State is similar in character to the
Nazi Germany of the early 1930s. If we are to prevent a super Holocaust and
massive slaughters of people, we need concerted military action... under the
aegis of the United Nations Security Council."
The Saudi-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), refuted the
allegations. It said:
"The Czech President's statements on Islam are in line with the statements the
President made in the past, where he linked believers in the Quran with
anti-Semitic and racist Nazis and said that the enemy is anti-civilization
spreading from North Africa to Indonesia, where two billion people live.
"Such statements not only show President Zeman's lack of knowledge and
misunderstanding of Islam, but also ignore the historical facts that
anti-Semitism and Nazism are a European phenomenon through and through. They
have no roots in Islam, neither as a religion nor as a history or civilization.
The Holocaust did not take place in the area from North Africa to Indonesia."
President Zeman has refused to apologize for his statement. On June 28, he said:
"If European countries accept a wave of migrants, there will be terrorists among
them. ... By accepting the migrants, we strongly facilitate the Islamic State's
expansion to Europe."
In Denmark, Hizb ut-Tahrir, a radical Islamic group, told Muslims to boycott the
June 18 general election because democracy is incompatible with Islam. In a
press release, the group said:
"We are committed to being active participants in our society, but it has to be
on Islam's terms, without compromising our own principles and values. Democracy
is antithetical to Islam, and it is a sinking ship, even its own supporters lose
increasingly confidence in the system and are looking for an alternative.
"The way forward for Muslims in Denmark is to resist the anti-Islamic
integration policy and the aggressive foreign policy pursued by successive
governments in this country. We must protect our Islamic identity and values
as well as disseminate the message of Islam to the wider society around us in
word and deed. We also have the duty to call for and support the global work for
the restoration of the Caliphate, the Islamic solution to the myriad of problems
that we Muslims are facing globally."
With all votes counted, a bloc of center-right parties led by former Prime
Minister Lokke Rasmussen ousted Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's
center-left coalition. The anti-immigration Danish People's Party became the
second-largest party in parliament. The election results reflect voters' growing
frustration with multiculturalism, Danish asylum and refugee policies and
runaway immigration from Muslim countries.
New statistics released by the Danish Immigration Service showed that 90% of all
asylum applications have been approved so far in 2015. This is in stark contrast
to 2004, when only 10% of such applications were approved.
In Copenhagen, the Islamic Society in Denmark began accepting donations for the
construction of a third mega-mosque in the capital. The project is expected to
cost 80 million kroner ($11.7 million) and construction could begin in 2017.
In France, former president Nicolas Sarkozy's opposition party — recently
rebranded "The Republicans" — held a meeting on the question of "Islam in France
or Islam of France" as part of a roundtable discussion on the "crisis of values"
in France. Sarkozy said: "The question is not to know what the Republic can do
for Islam, but what Islam can do to become the Islam of France."
Muslim groups criticized the meeting. "We cannot participate in an initiative
like this that stigmatizes Muslims," said Abdallah Zekri, the president of the
National Observatory on Islamophobia. The organizer of the meeting, MP Henri
Guaino, said: "Can we not talk about subjects that split opinion? If you talk
about immigration, you are a xenophobe. If you talk about security, you are a
fascist. If you talk about Islam, you are an Islamophobe."
Prime Minister Manuel Valls told a half-day conference on relations with the
Muslim community on June 15 that "Islam is here to stay." He also stressed that
there is no link between Islam and extremism. "We must say all of this is not
Islam," Valls said. "The hate speech, anti-Semitism that hides behind
anti-Zionism and hate for Israel ... the self-proclaimed imams in our
neighborhoods and our prisons who are promoting violence and terrorism." The
conference did not discuss radicalization because the issue was deemed to be too
sensitive.
On June 28, Valls told iTele that there are between 10,000 and 15,000 salafists
in France, and that 1,800 people were "linked" in some way to the Islamist
cause. He said that the West was engaged in a "war against terrorism," adding:
"We cannot lose this war because it is fundamentally a war of civilization. It
is our society, our civilization that we are defending."
On June 6, Valls said that more than 850 French citizens or residents had
travelled to fight in Syria and Iraq. More than 470 are still there and 110 are
believed to have been killed on the battlefields.
On June 29, French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve revealed that France has
deported 40 imams for "preaching hatred" in the past three years. "We have
deported 40 preachers of hatred since 2012," he said. "Since the beginning of
the year we have examined 22 cases and around 10 imams and preachers of hatred
have been expelled."
On June 7, Cazeneuve said that 113 French citizens or residents have died as
jihadists on battlefields in the Middle East. There are 130 ongoing judicial
proceedings concerning 650 persons related to terrorism, and 60 individuals have
been banned from leaving the country.
In Lyon, Yassin Salhi, a 35-year-old father of three, confessed to beheading his
boss and trying to blow up a chemical plant near the city. The severed head of
his boss was found hanging on the fence of a site belonging to a US-based gas
and chemicals company, next to two flags bearing the Muslim profession of faith.
Salhi, a truck driver, was born in France to parents of Moroccan and Algerian
descent. Before his arrest, Salhi took a picture of himself with the severed
head and sent the image to a French jihadist fighting for the Islamic State in
Syria. Salhi's wife said: "We are normal Muslims. We do Ramadan."
In Bordeaux, the De L'Orient à L'Occidental grocery store, whose owners recently
converted to Islam, scrapped a "gender ban" after facing a barrage of criticism.
In an effort to ensure that males and females did not come into contact with
each other at the store, the owners attempted to ban women from shopping on
Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and to ban men on Thursdays,
Saturdays and Sundays.
In Paris, the Administrative Court on June 23 rejected a case brought by a
mother trying to sue the French government for failing to stop her teenage son
from leaving to join jihadists in Syria. The boy was 16 when he left with three
others from the southern French city of Nice in December 2013, taking a plane to
Turkey and then traveling overland to Syria. His mother, identified only as
Nadine A., argued that airport police in Nice should have stopped the boy
because he had only a one-way ticket and no baggage. But the court ruled that
the airport officers were not responsible, and it rejected her demand for
€110,000 ($120,000) in compensation.
Meanwhile, more than a dozen members of Forsane Alizza (Knights of Pride), a
group formed to defend Muslims against Islamophobia, went on trial in Paris on
June 7 for allegedly plotting terrorist attacks. The group — formed in August
2010 by a 37-year-old Franco-Tunisian, Mohamed Achamlane, who refers to himself
as "Emir" — put a message on its website demanding that French forces leave all
Muslim-majority countries. The message said: "If our demands are ignored, we
will consider the government to be at war against Muslims."
Members of the French Islamist group Forsane Alizza rally in the street. More
than a dozen members of the group went on trial in June on charges of plotting
terrorist attacks.
Achamlane also released videos of himself giving inflammatory speeches, using
phrases such as, "By all-powerful Allah, we will put scars on France." The group
also issued a list of "targets" including Jewish shops in the Paris region. In
court, Achamlane said: "There is no radical or moderate Islam. There is only
authentic Islam." The government described the group as a private militia, but
the 15 members of the group denied that they were members of a terrorist group.
If convicted, each member of the group faces up to ten years in prison.
In Germany, Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière, in an interview with the
newspaper Rheinische Post, said that the number of German jihadists fighting in
Syria has risen to around 700. "The number has never been as high as it is now,"
he said. The number of violent Islamists in Germany who are "prepared to commit
politically motivated crimes of considerable importance" was around 330. He said
there are more than 500 ongoing counter-terrorism operations involving 800
Islamists.
Meanwhile, a debate erupted over whether Muslim students should be exempted from
mandatory visits to former concentration camps as part of Holocaust education
programs. The dispute centered on a proposal that would require students in all
secondary schools in the southern state of Bavaria to visit Holocaust memorials
as part of the school curriculum.
The proposal was opposed by the governing Christian Social Union, which said
that "many children from Muslim families... have no connection to our past
and... will need much more time before they can identify with our history. We
need to be careful about how we address this issue with these children."
Also in Bavaria, the administrators of the Wilhelm-Diess-Gymnasium, a school in
Pocking, warned parents not to let their daughters wear revealing clothing in
order to avoid "misunderstandings" with the 200 Muslim refugees housed in
emergency accommodations in a building next to the school. The letter said:
"The Syrian citizens are mainly Muslim and speak Arabic. The refugees have their
own culture. Because our school is directly next to where they are staying,
modest clothing should be worn in order to avoid disagreements. Revealing tops
or blouses, short shorts or miniskirts could lead to misunderstandings."
A local politician quoted by Die Welt newspaper said:
"When Muslim teenage boys go to open air swimming pools, they are overwhelmed
when they see girls in bikinis. These boys, who come from a culture where for
women it is frowned upon to show naked skin, will follow girls and bother them
without their realizing it. Naturally, this generates fear."
In Berlin's Neukölln district, a 26-year-old Muslim woman was allowed to begin
an internship as a junior lawyer in the town hall. Local authorities had
initially considered rejecting Betül Ulusoy's application because she insisted
on wearing a Muslim headscarf. Berlin's neutrality law (Neutralitätsgesetz)
stipulates that anyone who works for the city is prohibited from showing outward
signs of religiosity. But city officials made an exception for Ulusoy,
apparently in order to avoid being accused of Islamophobia.
In the Netherlands, the Dutch parliament voted against allowing MP Geert Wilders
to stage an exhibition of American cartoons based on the Prophet Mohammed.
Wilders said he was disappointed in the parliament's decision and pledged to
show the cartoons during a television party political broadcast. But the
national public broadcasting company NPO failed to air the video as planned.
Wilders accused NPO of sabotage. On June 24, Wilders' video was finally aired on
Dutch public television.
Also in June, Social Affairs Minister Lodewijk Asscher said that he was
considering a plan that would require Turkish imams to take a course in the
Dutch language and culture before they are allowed to move to the Netherlands.
Such a course would "lay the foundations for successful integration," Asscher
said. Yassin Elforkani from the Muslim lobby group CMO, which claims to
represent nearly 400 mosques in the Netherlands, said that rather than
"continually importing" imams from Turkey, the Netherlands should establish an
indigenous imam training program similar to the one in Germany.
Meanwhile, a court in Rotterdam sentenced a 22-year-old man from Delft to four
years in prison for planning to use the proceeds of an armed robbery to support
jihadists in Syria. Police, who were tipped off by an informant, arrested
Mohammed A. while he was on his way to carry out an armed robbery in
Scheveningen. They found three guns in his car. The court ruled that Mohammed A.
was guilty of a "serious terrorism offense" because he was planning to use the
proceeds from the robbery to support violent jihad.
In Norway, the Police Security Service (PST) revealed that nearly a dozen
refugees sent to Norway under the UN's quota system turned out to have close
links to the terror groups Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front. Police also
discovered that some refugees had backgrounds in Syria's secret police, and
others were suspected of carrying out war crimes during the country's ongoing
civil war.
The newspaper Dagbladet also reported that Islamic extremists are scouting
refugee reception centers in Norway in search of new recruits for terrorism.
According to the paper, several people who received asylum in Norway later
became central figures in the country's radicalized Islamic community.
Meanwhile, an increasing number of Norwegians are converting to Islam,
apparently because of a perceived need for stronger rules in Norway's liberal
society. "Converting to Islam is perhaps the most extreme form of youthful
rebellion today," Muslim convert and religion professor Anne Sofie Roald told
the newspaper Aftenposten. She said she thinks conservative Islam represents
clear limits and a new form of security in Norway's "anything goes" society.
In Spain, police arrested three young Frenchmen after they were caught driving a
Mercedes at 235 kilometers per hour (146 miles per hour), almost twice the 120
km/h legal speed limit, on the AP-7 motorway through the southern province of
Valencia. Police found €200,000 ($219,000) in cash stuffed in a duffel bag in
the car's trunk; none of the three men was able to explain the provenance of the
cash. A subsequent investigation found that one of the three men was being
monitored by French authorities on suspicion that he had been recruited by the
Islamic State and was preparing to leave for Syria.
On June 22, the trial of Nabil Benkaddour, a Moroccan who attempted to join the
Islamic State in Syria, began at the High Court in Madrid. Benkaddour was
arrested the southern Spanish region of Murcia in November 2014 after he tried
to travel to Syria via Turkey. He was not allowed to board the plane, however,
because he did not have a return ticket. Spanish police later discovered that
Benkaddour had been "very active on radical jihadist forums on the Internet" and
had broadcast videos used for jihadist indoctrination and recruitment. He had
also posted a photograph of his three-year-old son holding a toy rifle, along
with images of various terrorist leaders, with the message: "You have chosen the
path of Jihad and we will follow it." Benkaddour faces two years in prison if
the court finds him guilty of "glorifying terrorism."
In Sweden, police arrested two people in raids in Stockholm and provincial city
of Orebro on June 1 as part of a crackdown on the recruitment of young men to
fight with jihadists groups abroad. The Swedish Security Police (SAPO) said
Orebro, a city of 140,000 people, has become the fourth largest Swedish source
of recruits for Islamist groups after Malmo, Gothenburg and Stockholm. According
to SAPO, about 300 Swedish nationals or residents are believed to have joined
the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Around 35 of these have been killed and 80
have returned to Sweden.
On June 17, the Swedish government announced that it was contemplating drafting
a new law that would ban its nationals from fighting with jihadist groups such
as the Islamic State. "It is unacceptable that Swedish citizens are travelling
to join the Islamic State, financing the group or fighting for it," Justice
Minister Morgan Johansson and Interior Minister Anders Ygeman wrote in an
article published by the newspaper Dagens Nyheter.
More news about Islam in Sweden during June 2015 can be found here.
Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is
also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios
Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter.
Kerry-Lavrov in the Gulf: The Countdown for Syria’s Endgame
is on
Smir Altaqi/Esam Aziz/Middle East Briefying/09 August/15
What could be concluded from Secretary of State John Kerry’s and Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov recent visit to the Gulf region is that the US decided to
abandon its narrow approach of “ISIL First” and adopt instead a wider policy
that incorporates fighting ISIL in a comprehensive effort based on moving,
seriously “enfin”, to alter the balance of power on the ground in Syria, hence
push forward the political solution.
Theoretically, Turkey will provide the Syrian opposition with the arms they
need, start implementing a plan to restructure the bits and pieces of the Syrian
insurgency in the north. The Turks were simply be given the Keys of North Syria
under a deal that will weaken both ISIL and Assad. In return, the PKK will be
prevented from areas that are not historically theirs anyway.
The synthesis between the US “ISIL First” and Turkey’s “Assad First” is the base
of the bilateral deal that is in fact still work in progress. For the Turks, the
emergence of the PKK affiliated People Protection Units (YPG) altered Ankara’s
stand to “Assad and the PKK First” and made it possible for the US, with its
“ISIL First”, to get the Turks to accept the combined strategy. The Turks got
half of their strategy as an advance for the second half. And it seems, from
Kerry’s Gulf talks, that there are serious steps to deliver the second half:
Bashar Al Assad.
The essence of the shift in the situation regarding Syria could be condensed in
two points.
The first is that the Arabs agreed to accept something less than a zero sum
game. Pro Assad, Hezbollah and Iran areas in West Syria will not be subjugated
by force to a majority rule in Damascus. Rather, they will have a proportional
piece of the cake of the central government.
The second is that all this stuff cannot be achieved without a clear road map
and collective efforts to get Assad and the Iranian participation. And to do
that, the balance of power has to shift, a process that has already started.
The US has returned to its initial concept of altering the balance of power in
order to impose a political solution on Assad and his backers. Washington did
not abandon totally this concept, but it looked in the near past uninterested in
pursuing it with the required vigor. Now, free from the nuclear negotiations
with Iran, Washington seems to have decided to move forcefully to implement its
initial principle where there are intricate division of labor with regional and
international allies to get Assad to the negotiating table to talk about a
Syrian future without him and his gang.
There are speculations that Tehran realized that it is actually facing a
strategic impasse in Syria and it is discussing a deal. The essence of the deal
is to organize a transition along the Russian proposal. That is a managed
departure of Assad, joint fighting against ISIL and the preservation of the
rights of the Alawis in the regions. There is no sign that Tehran reached a
decision yet.
The basic fundamentals of the Doha talks were: 1) A rejection of the scenario of
partitioning Syria, as it will create more instability and provides no end to
the war, 2) Adopting the parameters laid by the UN Special Envoy Staffan de
Mistura and by Moscow, 3) Working on an unofficial demarcation of areas of
influence, 4) Negotiating, separately first, with Arab Sunni players and the
Iranians to determine the final status of these areas of influence, a la Taif
agreement, while leaving the door opened to direct talks later on, 5) General
elections in Syria with a prior understanding that Assad will not run and that
the new government will include representatives of all components of the Syrian
society.
(Taif was the deal that ended the Lebanese civil war. It was based on an
unofficial partitioning of the country to areas of “natural” sectarian and
political control combined under a sectarian dosed central government)
But such a strategy requires the final approval of the two sides of the war to
this road map in Syria where each Caesar gets what is his, and where Syria gets
peace. The Taif concept comes handy in this context. What took place in Doha is
indeed the first step towards a serious discussion on the details of such a
deal.
Moscow’s concept is based on building a regional understanding that will help
confront terrorism. At one point, and if this plan works, a regional conference
that gathers all relevant players including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, the UN
and both the US and Russia is the core of the Russian current efforts.
Turkey is enthusiastic. On his way back from China, the Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan had this to say on Moscow’s position: “Putin’s current attitude
toward Syria is more encouraging than before. Our meeting in Baku and our
following phone conversation left me with the impression that he is changing his
attitude. He is no longer of the opinion that Russia will support Assad to the
end. I believe he can give up Assad”.
Kerry said in New York, just before leaving to the Middle East that he hopes
that Iran will join the international-regional group that defines now the future
of Syria “at a later phase”.
But this requires two hands to be applauded. Will Iran agree? And at what point
in the shift of the balance of power?
There are two options available to the Iranians-Hezbollah-Assad camp. The first
is to try to block the US-Russian-Arab arrangement. The second is to agree to be
the second hand that will applaud it. And most probably they will try the first
before getting to the second. Everybody does.
The Syrian regime and its backers are trying frantically to improve their
positions on the ground and stall for a longer time. A serious counter attack
was launched by Assad and his backers in recent weeks. Zabadani, for example, is
the field of relentless Hezbollah- opposition clashes to capture the strategic
city. The regime is waging counter offensives on many other fronts
simultaneously. Counter attacks are taking place in the Aleppo region, Al Ghab,
Jessr Al Shughour and even Palmyra.
Therefore, Tehran-Assad camp will try to improve their share in the Taif deal.
But at one point, they will give up fighting and rush to the negotiating table.
When will that happen? At the moment the demarcation lines, being discussed,
settles down to a kind of “natural” configuration. And we are already starting
to see that in North Syria. It will take quite a bit of time and a lot of
fighting to reach a semi-stable demarcation lines. In other words, it will get
worse before it gets better.
Iran and Assad will hedge their bets however through consolidating their control
on the areas that are mostly Alawi or that is considered strategic for
Hezbollah. One very expressive example, from the ground, is shown in Zabadani.
Ahrah Al Sham was putting pressure in the two Shia villages in Idlib country
side (Foa’a and Kafraia) in order to force Hezbollah to reduce pressure on
Zabadani which is important for both Hezbollah and Iran. Tehran decided to
negotiate with Ahrar Al Sham. The funny thing is that the Iranian delegation
demanded upfront that Sunnis leave Zabadani altogether and offered high
geographical price for the strategic city elsewhere. Ahrar Al Sham refused. But
this example shows clearly that Iran’s objective is to work on the partition
option as a default line in case the Arabs insist on a game plan Tehran does not
like.
The Iranians understand that at the end of the day, it will be a partition under
any other name, or even under its own name. The fight now is between Iran’s Plan
B that we explained in recent previous issues of MEB, and the Syrian opposition
plan A, which is free their land of Iranian presence and keep it unified. It
will help the opposition substantially to modify their political discourse and
base it on national unity and plurality that has always been the feature of
Syria’s culture.
Globally, the Iranians can get a better deal now, while the balance of power is
not decisively tilted in favor of the powerful alliance that has just been
formed. But in many cases, people carry on chasing their own tails.
Things will go more or less on this course, that is if the Iranians do not get a
rabbit out of their hat in order to turn the table upside down. Think Iraq,
Lebanon, Bahrain or something they know and we do not. The Iranians are cornered
in Syria. And anybody may turn stupidly dangerous if cornered. Any “game
changer” for sale?
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