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Bible Quotation For Today/ Consider the lilies, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin; yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one of these
Luke 12/22-31: "Jesus said to his disciples, ‘Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat, or about your body, what you will wear. For life is more than food, and the body more than clothing. Consider the ravens: they neither sow nor reap, they have neither storehouse nor barn, and yet God feeds them. Of how much more value are you than the birds! And can any of you by worrying add a single hour to your span of life? If then you are not able to do so small a thing as that, why do you worry about the rest? Consider the lilies, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin; yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one of these. But if God so clothes the grass of the field, which is alive today and tomorrow is thrown into the oven, how much more will he clothe you you of little faith! And do not keep striving for what you are to eat and what you are to drink, and do not keep worrying. For it is the nations of the world that strive after all these things, and your Father knows that you need them. Instead, strive for his kingdom, and these things will be given to you as well."

Bible Quotation For Today/ Transferring Paul to Antipatris in Fear for His Life.
Acts of the Apostles 23/23-35: "Then he summoned two of the centurions and said, ‘Get ready to leave by nine o’clock tonight for Caesarea with two hundred soldiers, seventy horsemen, and two hundred spearmen. Also provide mounts for Paul to ride, and take him safely to Felix the governor.’He wrote a letter to this effect: ‘Claudius Lysias to his Excellency the governor Felix, greetings. This man was seized by the Jews and was about to be killed by them, but when I had learned that he was a Roman citizen, I came with the guard and rescued him. Since I wanted to know the charge for which they accused him, I had him brought to their council. I found that he was accused concerning questions of their law, but was charged with nothing deserving death or imprisonment. When I was informed that there would be a plot against the man, I sent him to you at once, ordering his accusers also to state before you what they have against him.’ So the soldiers, according to their instructions, took Paul and brought him during the night to Antipatris. The next day they let the horsemen go on with him, while they returned to the barracks. When they came to Caesarea and delivered the letter to the governor, they presented Paul also before him. On reading the letter, he asked what province he belonged to, and when he learned that he was from Cilicia,
he said, ‘I will give you a hearing when your accusers arrive.’ Then he ordered that he be kept under guard in Herod’s headquarters."

LCCC Latest analysis, editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 03-04/15
Can Jewish refugees claim billions from Arab states/Dr. Adam Reuter/Ynetnews/August 03/15
US Jewish groups call on Israel to rein in its Jewish extremists/By JTA/J.Post/August 03/15
The Taliban’s new leader and his rocky rise to power/Camelia Entekhabi-Fard/Al Arabiya/August 03/15
Syria’s red lines: A sketch by many painters/Mohamed Chebarro/Al Arabiya/August 03/15
Saudi Arabia’s big absence/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/August 03/15
Iran plans missile tests to flaunt defiance of Vienna deal and UNSC resolution/DEBKAfile/August 03/15
Erdogan's Bait and Switch in Northern Syria/Jonathan Spyer/The Jerusalem Post/August 03/15
Who Is Destroying the Palestinian Dream/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/August 03/15
The Islamic State's Campaign Plan/Vijeta Uniyal/Gatestone Institute/August 03/15
Articles In Egypt: Turkey, Qatar Fund Terror, Are Responsible For Bloodshed In Arab World/MEMRI/August 03/15
Style Could Win Out Over Substance on Iran Nuclear Deal/Zachary Fillingham/Geopolitical Monitor/August 03/15

LCCC Bulletin titles for the Lebanese Related News published on August 03-04/15
Report: U.S. Sets Red Lines for Lebanese Officials over Growing Crisis
Officials Discuss Export of Waste as Crisis Grows amid Heat Wave
Wildfires in Several Regions as Civil Defense Warns over Heat Wave
Abou Faour Underlines Threats of Trash Crisis: Political Powers Hold Key to Ending it
Gemayel: Those Trying to Block Cabinet Sessions are Committing Crime against All Lebanese
Khalil: Public Sector Salaries Impasse Will Aggravate in Sept.
Chhim Residents Block Road to Protest Garbage Pileup
Lebanese Man Robbed and Killed in Abidjan
FPM Makes Initiative on Appointments as Cabinet Set to Fail on Choosing Army Chief of Staff

Report: U.S. Sets Red Lines for Lebanese Officials over Growing Crisis
Naharnet/03 August/15/The United States has advised Lebanese officials to preserve Lebanon's stability by avoiding a vacuum in security institutions and the premiership as a result of their sharp differences, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. Washington has stressed there were three led lines that the officials should not cross, the newspaper said. The first lies in preserving stability by guaranteeing the continued functioning of security institutions. The institutions are under threat over a dispute on the extension of high-ranking security officials. The U.S. also warned the Lebanese officials to preserve the country's currency to stop socio-economic problems. The third red line is the premiership. According to al-Joumhouria, the U.S. has warned against a vacuum in the prime minister's post. Premier Tammam Salam warned last week that all options are on the table when a dispute among cabinet members on the government's working mechanism and the appointment of security officials continued to grow. In a related development, al-Joumhouria said that Ambassador David Hale traveled to Washington on Saturday on a 10-day mission aimed at briefing the U.S. administration on the situation in Lebanon.

Officials Discuss Export of Waste as Crisis Grows amid Heat Wave
Naharnet/03 August/15/Officials resumed on Monday discussing the country's waste crisis as Prime Minister Tammam Salam said that the export of garbage is among the proposals under discussion. “The suggestion to export waste is among several other proposals” that are being discussed by the involved officials, Salam told As Safir daily. Some Lebanese businessmen have asked the state to be given an official mandate to negotiate with companies abroad the export of Lebanon's garbage. But this request was declined, said Salam. Economy Minister Alain Hakim also told As Safir that four German companies have given their initial approval to import each 40 tons of waste monthly. He stressed that France and Sweden are ready to cooperate in that regard if the German companies failed to strike a deal with the Lebanese authorities on the matter. In similar remarks to the newspaper, Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb expressed hope that the export of waste will take place. The crisis erupted when the Naameh landfill, which since 1997 had been receiving the trash of Beirut and Mount Lebanon, was closed on July 17. Following its closure, waste began to pile up on the streets despite a temporary solution to collect it. But the decision led to protests by local officials and residents in several areas, who have refused to accept waste from outside their regions. The smell of rotting garbage became worse with rising temperatures amid an unprecedented heat wave striking Lebanon and neighboring countries.Experts have warned that the crisis would lead to the spread of diseases.

Wildfires in Several Regions as Civil Defense Warns over Heat Wave
Naharnet/03 August/15/Several wildfires erupted Sunday in many areas across Lebanon as the country started to be engulfed by a scorching heat wave. In the Beirut suburb of Hadath, a blaze ripped through a forestland on the peripheries of the Lebanese University complex, state-run National News Agency said. Residents were urging the Civil Defense to intervene and “prevent the spread of the flames to the nearby houses,” NNA said. Meanwhile, a wildfire renewed in the forests of the Akkar town of Baino as temperatures soared in the region. “Five firefighting vehicles from the Bizbina, Akkar al-Atiqa, al-Bireh and Deir Janine have headed to the location,” NNA said. The flames were mainly raging in the Wadi Sahel forest, after a helicopter doused them two days ago, the agency added.“A Lebanese army patrol has also inspected the location of the wildfires and a military helicopter will be dispatched to contribute to the firefighting efforts, given the inaccessibility of the site,” NNA said. Also in the North, Civil Defense firefighters were struggling to extinguish flames that erupted in the outskirts of the Akkar town of Shikhlar, near the town of Minjez, Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said. In the South governorate, crews from the Civil Defense, Lebanese army and the U.N. peacekeeping force were trying to put out a fire that had erupted in the morning in the outskirts of the Bint Jbeil District town of Ain Ibl, the agency reported. The Civil Defense Directorate General had warned Saturday that the hot weather could contribute to the eruption of wildfires, urging citizens to be cautious and to avoid using fireworks and dumping garbage and glass bottles in forests. The directorate cited a statement by the meteorological department of the Civil Aviation Administration that had warned that all Lebanese regions would be engulfed by a heat wave that would start Sunday and continue until mid-week. Lebanon witnessed a similar heat wave in May. Scorching temperatures are normal this time of year in the Middle East, but the current one has been described as unprecedented.
In Iraq, the unbearable heat prompted authorities to declare a mandatory four-day holiday.

Abou Faour Underlines Threats of Trash Crisis: Political Powers Hold Key to Ending it
Naharnet/03 August/15/Health Minister Wael Abou Faour highlighted on Monday the threats posed by the ongoing waste disposal problem in Lebanon, saying that the temporary dumps for Beirut's garbage are nearing their capacity. He urged during a press conference the government to “take the fastest solution to resolve the problem because time is not on our side.” The cabinet has been studying the possibility of exporting the waste. “It appears that we are facing a long-term problem over waste disposal,” he remarked.
He noted that the temporary dump established near Rafik Hariri International Airport poses a threat to nearby residential areas due to the hazardous fumes and stench. It also poses a threat to aviation because of the increase in birds that are dangerous to planes, he explained. The other dump for Beirut waste, said Abou Faour, is located in the Karantina area near a flour mill. He warned that the mill will be exposed to the hazards of the garbage, such as rodents and other pests, which in turn will affect flour production and consequently create a bread shortage in the country. Given these challenges, he called on the cabinet to reach an agreement on exporting the waste. Until such an agreement is reached, the minister urged the people to exercise precautions and avoid burning the trash. “Such a measure is a greater danger to the environment and will not influence the cabinet,” noted Abou Faour. Burning the waste raises cancer, asthma, breathing risks, and other hazards, he warned. In addition, the minister advised people against spraying pesticides on the garbage because, in the long-run, the pests will develop immunity against them. The minister therefore urged them to continue on using the calcium powder at dump sites, saying it is the most effective. Addressing reports of the possible spread of cholera due to the waste crisis, he explained that such threats existed before the problem began and that most cases were detected from travelers at the airport. “These cases have been contained,” he reassured. Moreover, he said that cholera can only be spread from one person to another and it is a virus that is linked to personal hygiene. “The Health Ministry does not have a solution to the garbage crisis, but it has means to confront it,” he declared in conclusion. “The political powers hold the solution to the crisis,” he stressed. The waste disposal crisis erupted when the Naameh landfill, which since 1997 had been receiving the trash of Beirut and Mount Lebanon, was closed on July 17. Following its closure, waste began to pile up on the streets despite a temporary solution to collect it. But the decision led to protests by local officials and residents in several areas, who have refused to accept waste from outside their regions. The smell of rotting garbage became worse with rising temperatures amid an unprecedented heat wave striking Lebanon and neighboring countries. Officials have started to study the possibility of exporting the waste with German, French, and Swedish companies expressing interest.

Gemayel: Those Trying to Block Cabinet Sessions are Committing Crime against All Lebanese
Naharnet/03 August/15/Kataeb Party leader MP Sami Gemayel said Monday that parties trying to prevent the cabinet from convening are “committing a crime against all Lebanese” amid the country's growing political and social crises. “The postponement of sessions is shameful and the premier must 'strike with an iron fist,'” said Gemayel at a press conference. “Those who believe that they can block cabinet sessions are committing a crime against all Lebanese and the day of accountability will come. The cabinet should not be paralyzed and it should rather convene daily until a solution is found to the garbage crisis,” Gemayel added. He stressed that the waste management problem must be addressed “without political bickering” and “in a purely scientific manner.” “We urge the interior minister to release the funds of municipalities to allow them to take measures that can alleviate the burden of this disaster, because we won't find any quick solutions if we decide to wait for the government,” added Gemayel. “We have informed the environment minister and the premier of our proposal -- the garbage must be sent abroad until we approve the tenders and we need a quick and temporary solution to remove garbage from the streets,” he said.
Officials resumed on Monday discussing the country's waste crisis as Prime Minister Tammam Salam said that the export of garbage is among the proposals under discussion. The unprecedented crisis erupted when the Naameh landfill, which since 1997 had been receiving the trash of Beirut and Mount Lebanon, was closed on July 17. Following its closure, waste began to pile up on the streets. Turning to the dispute over the cabinet's decision-making mechanism, Gemayel warned that “in the absence of a president, no new government can be appointed.”“If Salam resigns the cabinet will become dysfunctional,” he cautioned. “We do not consider ourselves to be in a government, or else we would've resigned long time ago ... This is a crisis management council, not a government, and unfortunately the alternative is total vacuum,” Gemayel added. As for the stalled appointments of senior security and military officials, the Kataeb chief called for abiding by the Constitution and “refraining from discussing the appointments before the due date.”He noted, however, that “no terms should be extended before attempting to appoint new military chiefs.”“We hope the issue of appointments will not have any negative impact on the Army Command and we must respect the law and the Constitution in this file. The appointments must be raised in cabinet in line with the Constitution and some appointments require a cabinet decision while some other appointments do not require a cabinet session,” said Gemayel. He urged all politicians to support the army and “stop discrediting the Army Command.”“We are counting on the army to defend the border and the army has proved that it is competent,” Gemayel added. The posts of high-ranking military and security officials are a source of contention among cabinet members, mainly the Free Patriotic Movement and PM Salam. The FPM's ministers have stressed that the issue should be a top priority at cabinet sessions because they consider the extension of the officials' terms illegal. Last month, FPM demonstrators marched towards the Grand Serail during a cabinet session to put pressure on Salam to amend the government's decision-making mechanism which they consider as hindering the rights of Christians. The FPM is stressing that its ministers should have a say on the cabinet's agenda because they consider themselves the representatives of the Christian president in his absence. Baabda Palace has been vacant since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May last year.

Khalil: Public Sector Salaries Impasse Will Aggravate in Sept.
Naharnet/03 August/15/Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil warned on Monday that the government may be unable to pay the salaries of the government employees and civil servants by the end of September in light of the cabinet paralysis. “Paying the wages of the public sector is starting to become a pressure card on the Finance Ministry. One of the ministries has started experiencing this pressure and may be unable to pay starting today,” warned Khalil in an interview to the As Safir daily. He added that the issue will aggravate by the end of September. “The state is facing financial entitlements worth $1.3 billion from now until the end of this year. “It includes a payment of $500 million due on August 7 which represents IOUs (Eurobonds) that will be paid by the Central Bank of Lebanon,” he said. “The Finance Ministry was initially able to find a legal cover for these Eurobonds through an issuance handled by the Ministry based on the opinion of the consulting body of legislation in the Ministry of Justice,” added Khalil. “In any case the approval of the cabinet is needed in order to do the issuance and the replacement.”The country has been without a budget for the past ten years and the cabinet has approved spending without approval from parliament.

Chhim Residents Block Road to Protest Garbage Pileup
Naharnet/03 August/15/Residents of the Iqlim al-Kharroub town of Chhim blocked a vital road on Monday to protest the accumulation of garbage on the streets, as the entire country continued to reel from an unprecedented waste management crisis. “A large group of residents blocked the main market's road at 8:00 pm with the accumulating trash, in protest at the municipality's failure to collect the garbage,” state-run National News Agency reported. It said the move “created a severe traffic jam, seeing as the blocked road is vital for the Iqlim al-Kharroub region.”Young men and residents also blocked the road at the town's main entrance to protest the piling up of the garbage. The roads were eventually reopened “after intensive contacts and efforts with the protesters,” NNA said, without elaborating on the identities of the mediators. The growing garbage crisis erupted after the closure of the Naameh landfill on July 17. The crisis has seen streets overflowing with waste and the air filled with the smell of rotting garbage for around two weeks. Residents have taken to the streets in areas across Lebanon to protest authorities' failure to tackle the problem. Experts have urged the government to devise a comprehensive waste management solution that would include more recycling and composting to reduce the amount of trash going into landfills. But so far there has been no evidence of such a plan, and there is already opposition to temporary solutions proposed by the government.

Lebanese Man Robbed and Killed in Abidjan
Naharnet/03 August/15/A Lebanese man has been robbed and killed in Ivory Coast, Lebanon's National News Agency reported on Monday.“40-year-old Mahmoud Atef Ghazal was shot dead at the hands of unknown gunmen in Abidjan,” NNA said. The armed men opened fire at Ghazal's car when he stopped at a red light in the Yopougon-Wassakara area, the agency added. The gunmen, who had been “monitoring and chasing” the man, robbed a large sum of money that he was transporting in his car, NNA said. According to the agency, Ghazal hails from the southern town of Burj Rahal. There is a large population of Lebanese expats in Ivory Coast and the numbers are estimated in the tens or hundreds of thousands. It is the largest Lebanese diaspora community in West Africa.

FPM Makes Initiative on Appointments as Cabinet Set to Fail on Choosing Army Chief of Staff
Naharnet/03 August/15/The Free Patriotic Movement has reportedly made an initiative to resolve the dispute on the appointment of high-ranking military and security officials as the cabinet, which is set to discuss the matter this week, is expected to fail to appoint a new miltiary chief of staff. An Nahar daily said Monday that the proposal was made by FPM chief MP Michel Aoun during his meeting with Defense Minister Samir Moqbel last week. The FPM claims that the initiative “preserves the dignity of all sides and abides by the law,” said the newspaper, without giving further details. The proposal was revealed by An Nahar on the eve of the retirement of army chief of staff Maj. Gen. Walid Salman. The cabinet is scheduled to discuss the issue during a session on Wednesday because Salman is set to retire at midnight Thursday. The posts of high-ranking military and security officials are a source of contention among cabinet members, mainly the FPM and Prime Minister Tammam Salam. The FPM's ministers have stressed that the issue should be a top priority at cabinet sessions because they consider the extension of the officials' terms illegal. Sources close to Salam told al-Akhbar daily that three names, which would be proposed by Moqbel to appoint a new army chief of staff during Wednesday's session, will not garner the support of the majority. The defense minister will have no choice but to issue a decree to extend Salman's term, a move that is totally rejected by the FPM. In remarks to An Nahar, ministerial sources expected the FPM's supporters to hold a protest to reject the extension. Last month, FPM demonstrators marched towards the Grand Serail during a cabinet session to put pressure on Salam to amend the government's decision-making mechanism which they consider as hindering the rights of Christians. The FPM is stressing that its ministers should have a say on the cabinet's agenda because they consider themselves the representatives of the Christian president in his absence. Baabda Palace has been vacant since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May last year.

Gulf ministers, Kerry discuss Iran deal in Doha
Al Arabiya News, The Associated Press/Monday, 3 August 2015/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry brought the Obama administration's case for the Iran nuclear deal to wary Arab officials in Qatar on Monday. Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir led the Saudi delegation participating in a pre-summit meeting on Sunday which was chaired by Qatari Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Khalid Bin Mohammed al-Attiyah, and attended by the GCC Secretary General Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani. The GCC-U.S. meeting discussed a number of regional issues, including the nuclear deal between P5+1 and Iran, signed in July. Opening the meeting, Qatari Foreign Minister Khalid al-Attiya said the gathering was being held in "very exceptional circumstances and challenges that have been unprecedented."
"We are facing many challenges in our communities and we are aiming to achieve peace and security and stability with the help of the United States," he said. He stressed the importance of keeping the region free "of any threats of nuclear weapons" and "the importance of the use of nuclear energy and technology for peaceful purposes" only. Al-Attiya spoke of the urgency of resolving the crises in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, but also complained that "the Middle East is suffering from the failures of the peace process due to the Israeli occupation" of Palestinian land. He accused Israel of "intransigence" in dealing with the Palestinians and said it must end its "illegal blockade of Gaza.""We call on the United States of America to exert more efforts to go back to the peace process," he said before journalists were ushered out of the room. Kerry did not speak while reporters were present. He arrived in the Qatari capital on Sunday after visiting Egypt, where he also spoke in favor of the agreement reached with Iran last month in Vienna. Gulf Arab states fear Iran's increasing assertiveness in the region. In Cairo, Kerry acknowledged Iran's negative role but said it would be easier to deal with if Tehran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. "Iran is engaged in destabilizing activities in the region - and that is why it is so important to ensure that Iran's nuclear program remains wholly peaceful," he told reporters at news conference with Egypt's foreign minister. "There can be absolutely no question that the Vienna plan, if implemented, will make Egypt and all the countries of this region safer than they otherwise would be." Kerry's meetings with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Doha on Monday are a follow-up on a May meeting that President Barack Obama hosted for Arab leaders at Camp David at which the U.S. promised them enhanced security cooperation and expedited defense sales to guard against a potential Iranian threat. Kerry's visit to Qatar follows one last week by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who also stopped in Kuwait and Iraq. In addition to Iran, Kerry and the Arab ministers are expected to look closely at the situation in Syria and Iraq, which continue to be ravaged by conflict and the spread of the ISIS extremist group, as well as Yemen. (With AP)

Kerry Arrives in Qatar to Assure Gulf Allies over Iran Deal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met Gulf Arab counterparts for talks in Qatar Monday as he attempts to ease the concerns of key allies over the Iran nuclear deal. On the latest leg of a regional tour, Kerry was to hold discussions with his six counterparts from the Sunni-dominated Gulf Cooperation Council in a bid to allay fears about Shiite Iran after the nuclear deal. "This is an opportunity, really, for the secretary to do a deep dive with the GCC foreign ministers to try to respond to any remaining questions that they might have and hopefully to satisfy them and ensure that they're supporting our effort going forward," a State Department official said. The GCC comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Gulf Arab states have raised concerns about Iran's regional ambitions following the recent accord in Vienna with the United States and Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. While in Doha, Kerry is also expected to hold a three-way meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Saudi counterpart Adel bin Ahmed al-Jubeir, with discussions expected to centre on Syria. "A key topic of discussion is expected to be the ongoing crisis in Syria," a senior State Department official said.He began his day meeting Jubeir and the Qatari Emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, before heading into the scheduled talks with GCC foreign ministers.
New atmosphere
Kerry landed in Qatar on Sunday evening after a visit to Egypt, where he also sought to assure his counterpart Sameh Shoukry and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that the landmark deal would bring more security to the Middle East. "There can be absolutely no question that if the Vienna plan is fully implemented, it will make Egypt and all the countries of this region safer than they otherwise would be or were," Kerry told a joint news conference with Shoukry. Egypt like other regional states remains suspicious of Iran, which has backed President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria and Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen. Kerry said the U.S. recognized that "Iran is engaged in destabilizing activities in the region -- and that is why it is so important to ensure that Iran's nuclear program remains wholly peaceful". "If Iran is destabilizing, it is far, far better to have an Iran that doesn't have a nuclear weapon than one that does," he said at the Cairo press conference. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised address Sunday that the July 14 nuclear agreement had created better prospects for faster solutions in Syria and Yemen, two of the Middle East's worst conflict zones.
"The final solution in Yemen is political, in Syria the final solution is political," he said. "The agreement will create a new atmosphere. The climate will be easier."
Strategic dialogue' with Egypt
While in Cairo, Kerry held the first "strategic dialogue" with his Egyptian counterpart since 2009. The United States has been working to patch up troubled ties with Egypt, long a key Middle East ally, as Sisi battles an Islamic State group insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula. An Egyptian foreign ministry statement said both sides would keep cooperating closely "to improve their mutual security, to combat terrorism and extremism". Ties between the United States and Egypt frayed after then-army chief Sisi overthrew Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013. More than 1,000 of Morsi's supporters were killed in a sweeping crackdown and militants have since killed hundreds of soldiers and police.
Most of the attacks have been by the Egyptian affiliate of the jihadist IS, which a US-led coalition is battling in Syria and Iraq.
Washington froze arms deliveries to Cairo following the crackdown on Morsi's supporters, but resumed full aid in March and delivered a batch of F-16 jets last week.
"We have significantly increased military cooperation as seen from the delivery of the F-16s, other equipment and goods which are very essential in the fight against terrorism," Kerry said.
But the top US diplomat also spoke of the need for a "balance" between fighting militants and respecting human rights in Egypt.
Kerry's Middle East trip does not include Israel, a fierce critic of the nuclear deal.

Houthi militia chief ‘ready for political settlement’
By Staff writer | Al Arabiya News/Monday, 3 August 2015/The leader of the Iranian-backed Houthis said on Sunday he was ready for a political settlement to end the war in Yemen. "A political solution is still possible, internally," Abdel-Malek al-Houthi said in a speech live on television, without elaborating. During the speech, Houthi urged his militia to fight on against Yemen’s government, dismissing its recapture of Aden last month as a ‘limited’ achievement made possible by Ramadan. He said Aden’s fall occurred only because some Houthis had returned home to be with their families at the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. “Continue and move in your resistance. You are in a strong position. And you are on the way to win,” he said. “We are in a battle, a great battle, in which we must use all our efforts.”“The enemy, when it threw all its weight and carried out thousands of raids, succeeded in limited achievements. They took advantage of an opportunity,” Houthi said, referring to Ramadan. Houthi accused his foes of resorting to alliances with both militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Israel in their assault on the southern port city. Yemen’s government retook much of Aden in July, supported by air strikes waged by Saudi Arabia and its regional allies.
Air campaign
Meanwhile, coalition planes targeted Houthi and Saleh-allied militias in the country’s eastern province of Taez on Monday, according to Al Arabiya News Channel. Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition that has been pursuing an air campaign inside Yemen since March against the Houthis. The Houthis control the capital, Sanaa, and northern parts of the deeply impoverished Arabian Peninsula nation. Also, loyalist forces launched a major offensive on Monday to recapture Yemen's largest air base from Houthis, deploying heavy armor supplied by their Saudi-led backers, military sources said. The Al-Anad base, north of second city Aden, is strategically important and housed US troops overseeing a drone war against Al-Qaeda in Yemen until shortly before the rebels overran it in March. That advance, which took the rebels all the way into Aden, forced President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi and his internationally recognized government into Saudi exile. But it has now been reversed and his loyalists are in full control of the southern port.
Hundreds of troops and militia, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles supplied by the Saudi-led coalition, deployed around the base late on Sunday in preparation for the attack, their commander Fadhl Hassan said.(With AFP)

Iraqi Kurdish Leader Vows to Avenge Yazidis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/The president of Iraq's autonomous region of Kurdistan, Massud Barzani, promised Monday to avenge the Yazidi minority brutally attacked by the Islamic State group a year ago. "We will hunt down those who committed this crime until the last one," Barzani said in Dohuk at a ceremony commemorating the beginning of the jihadist onslaught against the Yazidis. A Kurdish-speaking minority mostly based around the Sinjar mountain in northern Iraq, the Yazidis are neither Arabs nor Muslims and have a unique faith IS considers to be polytheism. On August 3 last year, the jihadists made an unexpected push into areas of northern Iraq that had been under Kurdish control and were home to many of the country's minorities. The worst-hit were the Yazidis, who were massacred and abducted in large numbers when IS entered the Sinjar area. Tens of thousands of them scrambled up Mount Sinjar in a panic and remained stranded there for days with no food nor water in searing summer temperatures. Dramatic footage of their flight through Syria and back into autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan caught the world's attention. The jihadist onslaught against the Yazidis has been described by the United Nations as "an attempt to commit genocide" and was one of the main justifications for the US-led air campaign against IS that began days later. Backed by the international coalition that subsequently developed, the Kurdish peshmerga as well as Kurdish forces from neighbouring Syria have clawed back land, but not all of it. "They (IS) have left thousands of bodies on the battlefield, but this is not enough in comparison with the crimes they committed," Barzani said. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) released figures on the Yazidis claiming that the community counts 550,000 members in Iraq.
The figures said Yazidis account for 400,000 of the more than three million people who have been displaced in Iraq since violence erupted at the beginning of 2014. According to the KRG figures, 1,280 Yazidis were killed in the IS offensive, 280 died due to the conditions they were subjected to and 841 are still missing. More than 5,800 were also abducted by IS, which has used Yazidi girls and women as slaves. Just over 2,000 of them have managed to flee, the KRG said.

Turkey Vows 'Whatever Necessary' in Fight against Militants
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday vowed to do "whatever necessary" in Turkey's controversial fight against Kurdish militants, with no end in sight to a two-week cycle of violence. Ankara is waging a two-pronged cross border "anti-terror" offensive against Islamic State (IS) militants in Syria and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels in northern Iraq, after a wave of attacks in the country. But so far, the air strikes against the PKK targets in northern Iraq have far outweighed those against IS, raising concerns about the extent of possible civilian casualties. Erdogan told reporters returning with him on a trip to Asia that the Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq should be taking action against the PKK bases there. "If they cannot, Turkey will do whatever necessary to defend itself," he was quoted as telling reporters on his presidential jet. But with the PKK staging daily attacks on security forces in reprisal for Turkish bombing raids, Erdogan denied there would be any return to the 1990s when the group's separatist insurgency was at its peak. "I don't believe that. That's impossible. Maybe those who say this want to return to the 1990s," he said, quoted by the Sabah daily and other newspapers. The current crisis began two weeks ago on July 20 when 32 young pro-Kurdish activists were killed in a Turkish town on the Syrian border in a suicide bombing blamed on IS. The PKK, which accuses the government of collaborating with IS, shot dead two Turkish police in reprisal to start a new wave of violence that has shattered a 2013 ceasefire.
According to an AFP toll, 17 members of the Turkish security forces have since been killed on attacks blamed on the PKK. Funerals for dead soldiers and police have now become a daily event, broadcast live on state television. Erdogan alleged there may be a "common interest" between the PKK and IS, although the two groups are usually seen as bitterly opposed and have frequently clashed on the battlefield. In new violence blamed on the PKK, two military vehicles were damaged in the southeastern province of Bitlis when they drove over a remote-controlled mine early Monday morning. The soldiers on board were not hurt. In the town of Tatvan in the southeastern Van province, suspected PKK militants staged a gun attack on a military hospital, the official Anatolia news agency said.
The Turkish air strikes have also put the regional government in the northern Kurdish region of Iraq, which has good ties with Ankara and tense relations with the PKK, in a delicate predicament. The Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq have long tolerated the presence of PKK fighters in its remote mountains, but the regional president Massud Barzani said it was time the group took its battle with Turkey elsewhere to avoid civilian casualties. Turkey's pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) said 10 civilians, including a pregnant woman, were killed early Saturday in a Turkish air strike on a Kurdish village in northern Iraq. The Turkish foreign ministry promised a "full investigation" into the claims. But the army denied the charges, saying "no civilian locations were to be found in the vicinity affected by the bombing."The violence also comes with Turkey still without a permanent government since June 7 legislative elections, when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its overall majority, much to the chagrin of Erdogan. The HDP has accused Erdogan of triggering the whole security crisis in the hope of calling early elections so the AKP can recoup its losses -- allegations the Turkish strongman vehemently denies. The AKP and main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) were Monday holding a fifth and final day of talks on a possible grand coalition, but the press was downbeat about the prospects of a deal. CHP chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu said in a television interview late Sunday that whereas Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu "really wants" to form a coalition government Erdogan was blocking an alliance. "He is stirring things up," he told the Haber Turk channel.

Syria Army Plane Crashes in Rebel-held Town
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/A Syrian military aircraft crashed while on a bombing run over the rebel-held northwestern town of Ariha on Monday, leaving at least 12 people dead, a monitoring group said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said it was not immediately clear how many of the dead were from the crash and how many from the prior bombardment. "It was flying at a low altitude when it had a mechanical failure," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said. He said dozens of people were also wounded in the Idlib province town which the rebels captured on May 28. The Damascus regime has relied heavily on its monopoly of air power in the four-year-old civil war, repeatedly pounding rebel-held towns. It has lost a number of aircraft, some to rebel fire, some to mechanical failure. In mid-January, at least 35 government troops were killed when a military aircraft crashed in Idlib. The province has since been largely overrun by a rebel alliance including al-Qaida affiliate Al-Nusra Front.

Saudi King Leaves France, Riviera Beach to Reopen
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/King Salman of Saudi Arabia unexpectedly left the French Riviera on Sunday, local officials said, adding that a beach that had been controversially closed for the royal's holiday would now reopen to the public.
Eight days after arriving in southern France for what was billed as a three-week luxury vacation, the monarch boarded a flight from Nice airport to the Moroccan city of Tangiers, Alpes-Maritimes region official Philippe Castanet told Agence France Presse. According to the local prefecture at least half of the king's 1000-strong delegation was also leaving. "We can assume that the king has ended his stay at Golfe-Juan," Castanet said, referring to the Cote d'Azur town of Vallauris Golfe-Juan where the monarch's luxury holiday villa is located. The Saudi embassy had earlier said the stay would last until around August 20. Security measures that had been put in place around the king's villa would now be "progressively lifted", Castanet said, adding that the stretch of beach in front of the villa would reopen to sunbathers and swimmers on Monday. The closure of Mirandole beach for security and private seasons had angered locals, generating global headlines and prompting more than 150,000 people to sign a petition protesting against the "privatization" of the public strip of sand. "The beach will reopen at 9:00 am," Vallauris mayor Michelle Salucki told AFP. The Saudi monarch's choice of Vallauris Golfe-Juan near Cannes for his holiday in the sun generated mixed emotions in the area. While some residents grumbled at the closure of the beach, local traders rolled out the red carpet for the monarch and his big-spending friends. Some members of the king's entourage had voiced their unhappiness at the level of scrutiny that their arrival induced. It was not immediately clear whether the royal departure was linked to the controversy over the beach.

Rouhani Says Nuclear Deal Can Speed Solutions in Syria, Yemen
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/Iran's president said Sunday his country's nuclear deal with the West would create better prospects for faster solutions in Syria and Yemen, two of the Middle East's worst conflict zones. In a live appearance on state television, Hassan Rouhani said the July 14 agreement had shown diplomacy and engagement were the only way to solve serious political problems and end crises. "The final solution in Yemen is political, in Syria the final solution is political," he said. "The agreement will create a new atmosphere. The climate will be easier." The near two years of talks between Iran and six world powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany -- was a "Herculean task" but was worth it, Rouhani argued. "I was never despondent," he said of the talks which seemed to be faltering at numerous stages, with negotiators at loggerheads over the terms of the deal. "Not for a single second did I doubt our success," he said, noting that "interaction" had triumphed over possible confrontation and surrender, neither of which "held much water" as options. Under the agreement, Iran will curb some but not all aspects of its nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions that have pulverized its economy in recent years. But Iran remains at odds with the West over Syria and Yemen.Tehran backs Syrian President Bashar Assad and has sent money and military advisers to aid his fight against Sunni rebels seeking to topple his regime. And in Yemen, a Saudi-led air campaign against Iran-backed Shiite Huthi rebels has been heavily opposed in Tehran, leading to a near collapse of its ties with Riyadh. The kingdom accuses Iran of meddling in Arab states, including Yemen which is majority Sunni, and Bahrain, a Sunni monarchy with a Shiite majority. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, the chief American negotiator in the Iran nuclear talks, sought to assure Middle East allies Sunday that the deal would make them safer, as he began a regional tour in Egypt and later flew to Qatar.

Mullah Omar’s family rejects new Taliban leader
By AFP, The Associated Press/Monday, 3 August 2015/The family of deceased Taliban leader Mullah Omar has refused to pledge allegiance to his successor, calling on religious scholars to settle a growing rift within insurgent ranks over the power transition. Mullah Akhtar Mansour was announced as the new Taliban leader on Friday following the announcement of the death in 2013 of Mullah Omar, who led the militant movement for some 20 years. But splits immediately emerged between Mansour and those who challenged his appointment, including the late leader's son Yakoub and his brother, Mullah Abdul Manan. "Our family... has not declared allegiance to anyone amid these differences," Manan said in an audio message released Sunday, without naming Mansour. "We want the ulema (religious scholars) to resolve the differences rather than declaring allegiance to any side," said the audio message, which Taliban sources confirmed was from Manan. Mansour on Saturday called for unity in the Taliban in his first audio message since becoming head of the group as it faces its biggest leadership crisis in recent years. His comments were apparently aimed at averting a factional split at a time of growing discord over the direction of peace talks with the Afghan government. Yakoub and several other members of the Taliban's ruling council walked out of the meeting at which Mansour was declared leader, refusing to pledge allegiance to him, a Taliban source told AFP. "Part of the insurgency is troubled and needs answers from Mansour and his allies: why did they hide Mullah Omar's death all these years? Did they deceive us by putting out fake statements in his name just to serve their own interests?" he said. Many also oppose what they see as Pakistan's attempt to force the Taliban into direct peace talks with the Afghan government. Mansour and his two newly named deputies -- influential religious leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Sirajuddin Haqqani -- are all seen as close to the Pakistani military establishment, which has historically nurtured and supported the Taliban. Mansour is seen as a pragmatist and a proponent of peace talks, raising hopes that the power transition could pave the way for an end to Afghanistan's long and bloody war. The announcement of Omar's death, however, cast doubt over the fragile peace process, forcing the postponement of a second round of talks that had been expected in Pakistan on Friday. Meanwhile, the Afghan government addressed the growing leadership crisis in the Taliban for the first time Monday, saying it will not deal with the militant group separately from other "armed opposition" in the country. The statement from President Ashraf Ghani's office said it will not accept any "parallel political structure" opposed to the Afghan government, a clear reference to the Taliban, who still call themselves the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan."

Erdogan Says Putin May 'Give Up' on Assad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/Russian President Vladimir Putin is having a change of heart on the Kremlin's wholehearted support for Syrian leader Bashar Assad and may "give up on him" in the future, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying Monday. When asked if Putin could be persuaded not to support Assad, Erdogan said he saw his counterpart as "more positive" during a face-to-face meeting in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku in June and in subsequent telephone talks. "Putin's current attitude toward Syria is more encouraging than before," Erdogan told a group of journalists on his presidential jet as he returned from a trip to Asia. "He is no longer of the opinion that Russia will support Assad to the end. I believe he can give up Assad," he was quoted as saying by the Daily Sabah and Sabah dailies. Turkey and Russia stand on opposing sides over the crisis in Syria, with Ankara one of the fiercest critics of Assad and Moscow one of his few remaining allies. Putin and Erdogan last met in Baku on June 13 during talks on the sidelines of the European Games that were held in the Azerbaijani capital. Relations between Turkey and Russia have become increasingly robust in recent months, with Russia's relations with the West at a post-Cold War era low and Turkey's bid to join the European Union at a standstill. Analysts say that Moscow and Ankara have managed to compartmentalize disputes over the Syria conflict and Russia's annexation of Ukraine to work for wider ties. Notably, Russia and Turkey have agreed to begin work on a new pipeline underneath the Black Sea. But reports in recent days have suggested the Turk Stream project has hit trouble due to a dispute over the price Turkey should pay for Russian gas. Erdogan's comments come as Ankara wages a two-pronged "anti-terror" offensive against jihadists in Syria and Kurdish militants based in northern Iraq after a wave of attacks inside Turkey.

Greek Stocks Plunge 22 Percent as Bourse Reopens
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/Greece's stock exchange reopened Monday with a drop of more than 22 percent after a five-week shutdown imposed by the country's debt crisis and capital controls. The ATHEX plunged to 615.72 points a few minutes after opening at 0730 GMT, down 22.82 percent from its June 26 close. The country's main banks took a heavy blow at the opening with drops of around 30 percent. "Naturally, pressure is expected, markets will not fail to comment on such an extensive shutdown," Constantine Botopoulos, head of the capital markets commission, told Skai radio. "But we must not get carried away. We must wait until the end of the week to see how the reopening will begin to be dealt with more coolly." The stock exchange operates as normal for foreign investors but local traders face limits on their transactions as part of the capital controls imposed by the government last month. The restrictions mean that Greek investors are unable to finance the purchase of securities by taking money from their bank accounts in Greece. They will, however, be able to use foreign bank accounts or make cash transactions. The volatility cap has been reduced from 30 percent to 20 percent during the first three days of trading. The country's lenders are in a vulnerable position because of outflows of billions of euros from deposits over the past six months. Some 40 billion euros ($44 billion) has been withdrawn from Greek banks since December, according to the country's banks association, amid fears over the fate of the Greek economy. The reopening of the stock market comes after senior EU and IMF auditors held their first meetings with Greek ministers to finalise a new three-year bailout for the country which could be worth up to 86 billion euros ($94 billion). The last trading session on the Athens stock exchange was on June 26, ending a few hours before Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced a referendum on the stringent bailout conditions demanded by Greece's international creditors. In response, worried Greeks rushed to withdraw cash from ATMs, prompting the government to impose capital controls from June 29 and announce the closure of the country's banks and the stock exchange. The banks reopened on July 20, but withdrawals and money transfers abroad remain restricted.

Calais Migrants Step Up bids to Get into Channel Tunnel
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/03 August/15/Migrants in Calais made around 1,700 attempts overnight to penetrate the Channel Tunnel premises in a bid to get to England, French police sources said Monday, and an officer sustained facial injuries from a stone.
Of the 1,700 attempts, some 1,000 were "pushed back" by authorities and 700 were intercepted within the 650-hectare Channel Tunnel site, police added. The officer was hit in the face by a stone apparently thrown by a Sudanese migrant, who was arrested. The policeman was taken to hospital for stitches. The 1,700 attempts represented a major increase from the last few nights when only a few hundred were registered. The chaos at Calais spiked last week when more than 2,000 attempts were made to breach the Eurotunnel defenses and one person was killed, a Sudanese man in his 30s who was apparently crushed by a lorry. At least 10 people have died since June in the rush to sneak into England, seen by migrants as an "Eldorado". French police have bolstered their presence with 120 additional officers, which appears to be reducing the number of nightly attempts to storm the Eurotunnel premises. The issue has become a cross-Channel political hot potato, with British Prime Minister David Cameron coming under fire for comments in which he referred to "swarms" of people seeking to get into the country. Anger is also mounting in France over the issue. Henri Guaino, a lawmaker from the opposition right-wing party Les Republicains, called on London to "do their share." "There is no reason for these people to be stored -- if I may say this because it's almost that -- in France. It cannot go on like this," said Guaino. "The situation is fairly simple. Migrants come to Calais to get to England. England does not want them. Therefore the migrants pile up in Calais and try by whatever means they can to reach England." Earlier this week, the British government pledged 10 million euros ($11 million) to improve fencing around the Eurotunnel rail terminal in Coquelles, outside Calais.And Cameron, who has warned that the crisis could last all summer, promised "more fencing, more resources, more sniffer dog teams" to aid French police in their nightly cat-and-mouse game with the migrants.

UN lays roadmap to end global poverty by 2030
By AFP | United Nations/Monday, 3 August 2015/Jubilant U.N. member states on Sunday put the finishing touches to a hugely ambitious roadmap aimed at wiping out poverty worldwide by 2030 and taking on climate change. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon lauded the hard-fought agreement, saying it "encompasses a universal, transformative and integrated agenda that heralds an historic turning point for our world."After a week of heated negotiations at U.N. headquarters in New York, experts and diplomats from the 193 member states adopted a draft about 30 pages long entitled "Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development."To cheers, Kenyan Ambassador Macharia Kamau called it "really a historic moment." Kenya chaired the negotiations along with Ireland. World leaders will attend a Sustainable Development Summit at the U.N. September 25-27 to adopt a sustainable agenda document, firing the starting gun on efforts to improve the lives of one billion people living on less than $1.25 a day, mainly in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Negotiators set out 17 new sustainable development goals seeking to end poverty, promote wellbeing and safeguard the environment -- all by 2030. "This is the People's Agenda, a plan of action for ending poverty in all its dimensions, irreversibly, everywhere, and leaving no one behind," proclaimed Ban of the multitrillion-dollar initiative. The U.N. chief vowed that the September summit, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, "will chart a new era of sustainable development in which poverty will be eradicated, prosperity shared and the core drivers of climate change tackled." The new 2015-2030 Sustainable Development Goals builds on the success of the Millennium Development Goals, which helped drag millions out of poverty. But the new drive will go significantly further, targeting the causes of poverty and the need for development that works for all people. Funding the massive effort will be key to its success and last month donor nations confirmed they aim to set aside 0.7 percent of gross national income for development aid, after several days of at-times fractious talks between rich nations and developing countries.

Can Jewish refugees claim billions from Arab states?
Dr. Adam Reuter/Ynetnews/Published: 08.03.15/ Israel Business/More than 700,000 Jews fled from Arab countries by the mid 1960s, most of them immigrating to Israel. The property they left behind is estimated at billions of dollars, but the disintegration process most of these countries are going through doesn’t leave Mizrahi Jews much hope for compensation. Mizrahi Jews lived in the Arab domain for many generations, in Iraq from the days of Babylon and in North African countries since the Roman era. Throughout certain periods of history, the majority of the world's Jews lived in districts which are now controlled by Arab countries, but as a result of demographic changes and the immigration to Europe in the Middle Ages, only five percent of the world's Jews remained in the area at the beginning of World War II – mainly in Morocco, Iraq, Egypt and Tunisia. The standard of living of the Jews in Cairo and in Baghdad on the eve of World War I was higher than the standard of living of Eastern European Jews, who lived in small and mostly remote towns. Their main occupations were in commerce, textile, customs, dressmaking, gold crafting, banking and finances. In countries under Ottoman rule, Jews could also get into the governmental sector and become high-ranking government workers, tax collectors and even judges. Quite a few Jewish families gained a lot of capital over the generations. At the same time, the Zionist movement evoked antagonism among the Arab residents, which increased amid the revival of nationalism. The establishment of Israel increased and intensified the anti-Semitism, leading to a rise in cases of harassment, plunder and even massacres. The government of Iraq (which became an independent state in the 1950s) even nationalized Jewish businesses and much Jewish property, allegedly as "compensation" for the Palestinian refugees – but this money mainly reached the hands of senior government members. In the early 1960s, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized Jewish property in Egypt, and the same happened to Libya's Jews. In Syria, Tunisia and Algeria, most Jews fled with only the clothes they were wearing after the declarations of independence, leaving all their property behind. The Jews of Morocco were treated much better, and were perhaps the only ones who could leave in a relatively organized manner with their money, but in many other cases they left their homes and businesses behind. By the mid 1960s, more than 700,000 Jews had left the Arab states, most of them immigrating to Israel.
How much Jewish property was left behind?
The estimates regarding the property left by Jews in Arab states vary from one source to another and are very difficult to verify, especially as there is a need to conduct a general evaluation of the real estate left behind in today's prices. A large portion of nationalized Jewish real estate was left, for example, in the most posh neighborhoods of Cairo, Alexandria and Baghdad. The communal property of Egypt's Jews covered huge areas, including about half of the district of Maadi (a city of villas and gardens located about 20 kilometers from Cairo, where all the luxurious houses have turned into the residences of ambassadors from various countries). In addition, there is a need to assess the flow of income from the factories, stores and businesses that the Arab regimes (or Arab neighbors) gained control of after the Jews fled, and which remained operational for many years (in rare cases, some are still operating today). Even the most conservative assessments point to compensation of billions of dollars, which according to some estimates reaches $15-20 billion, and much more.What is are the chances of financial compensation? One of those trying to collect as much information and possible and raise an interest among members of the veteran generation and among the children of the Israeli refugees is Dr. Edy Cohen, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs and a senior researcher at Bar-Ilan University's Department of Middle Eastern Studies. Dr. Cohen, the son of Jewish refugees who fled Lebanon in the 1980s, managed to collect information about this aspect of the "nakba" of the Arab state's Jews as part of his studies. Through the Kedem Forum for Arabic Studies and the conferences he holds, he is trying to create a buzz regarding the need to try to get Mizrahi Jews this huge financial debt back.
But the Arab states' current disintegration process is not helping the chances of actually receiving compensation. Syria no longer exists as a state, as only 25 percent of the territory is controlled by the Assad regime and the rest is divided between the Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra, the national rebels and the Kurds.
The situation is similar in Iraq, where almost one-third of the territory is already controlled by ISIS. Libya has essentially been divided between a number of large tribes, and the situation in Algeria and Tunisia isn't promising either.
Of all the countries mentioned so far, the only relevant ones are Egypt and Morocco, which can allegedly afford to pay compensation. Morocco, which has a relatively stable economy, may be capable of paying damages if it has to, but Egypt – which is relying on external donations right now – won't be able to do so. An amusing anecdote is the fact that huge Egyptian bank Misr, which has about 500 branches in Egypt and in other countries and which is owned by the Egyptian government, is now claiming ownership of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem. The bank is demanding compensation for the hotel's shares, which it says were expropriated by the Israeli Administrator General in as early as 1948. The Egyptians must have forgotten that the Israeli Administrator General can claim all the assets of Jewish families in Egypt – and that even after deducting the value of the King David Hotel, it could be quite a good deal for the State of Israel.
Deduction agreement with the Palestinian property?
In February 2010, the Knesset approved a law safeguarding Jewish refugees' right for compensation. The law states that "as part of negotiations for peace in the Middle East, the government will include the issue of compensating Jewish refugees from Arab states and Iran for the property they lost, including property which was owned by a Jewish community in those countries."According to one estimate, the lost property of Palestinians who became refugees following the War of Independence amounts to about 60 percent of the property lost by Jews expelled from Arab states. In the past decades, ideas have been raised about different deduction agreements. It's possible that following an international agreement, the United States or other international elements will assume responsibility to financially compensate both sides as part of a final agreement settling this dispute, but in light of the shaky economic situation the entire developed world has been facing since the 2008 crisis, this possibility seems far-fetched at the moment.
**Dr. Adam Reuter is the chairman of the Reuter Meydan Investment House and CEO of Financial Immunities Ltd.

US Jewish groups call on Israel to rein in its Jewish extremists
By JTA/08/03/2015/J.Post/Jewish groups in the United States called on Israel to more forcefully rein in its Jewish extremists. The call came in messages condemning two attacks: the firebombing of a Palestinian home in the West Bank, which led to the death of a sleeping baby; and the stabbing of six people during the Jerusalem Gay Pride parade, which led to the death of a 16-year-old girl. The attacks “must be met with determined action to prevent violence, apprehend perpetrators, and hold to account those who engage in incitement,” Stephen Greenberg, chairman, and Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman and CEO of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations said in a statement, which also “expressed their profound sorrow to the Dawabsha family on the death of their child, Ali Saad Dawabsha.” “Terror – whatever the source – must be given no quarter,” AIPAC said in a statement which condemned the attack and expressed condolences to the family. “The deliberate and heinous targeting and murder of innocents cannot be tolerated.”
“Setting ablaze the home of an innocent Palestinian family, of any such family, is frightening in its pure evil,” American Jewish Committee Executive Director David Harris said in a statement. “Whoever carried out this appalling deed must be apprehended and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, and additional steps must be taken in an effort to prevent any future such attacks.” The Anti-Defamation League condemned what it called the “shocking terror attack” in a statement. “For seven years, extremists have perpetrated acts of violence and hate, targeting mosques, churches, and private property. Now these unacceptable acts of hatred and unbridled zealotry have resulted in the murder of an innocent child,” Jonathan Greenblatt, ADL national director, and Carole Nuriel, director of ADL’s Israel Office, said. “Expressions of outrage are no longer enough. The perpetrators of these crimes need to face specific, enhanced consequences for these despicable acts of hate and terrorism. Community and religious leaders must make unquestionably clear that any act of hate and violence is unacceptable, un-Jewish, and that anyone involved in such incidents will be shunned by the community, let alone prosecuted to the full extent of the law,” they stressed. “Such a heinous act offends all people of good will and violates basic Jewish values,” the Orthodox Union said in a statement. “We commend Prime Minister Netanyahu for his unequivocal repudiation of this act and his commitment to bring the perpetrators to justice.”

The Taliban’s new leader and his rocky rise to power
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard/Al Arabiya/Monday, 3 August 2015/Mere days after the official announcement of the death of the Afghan Taliban’s leader, tension began on who would take over the group with the announcement of the late Mullah Mohammad Omar’s former deputy as the new leader. The new leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, who has been secretly acting as Mullah Mohammad Omar for almost three days and kept his death hidden from public eyes, suddenly released an audio recording is said to be the group’s new leader. Divisions in the Taliban are mirrored by divisions in the Afghan government Some of the high ranking Taliban officials rejected his leadership, including the former leader’s elder son, brother and his son-in-law who publicly protested against Mullah Mansour’s selection as the new leader.
Left in the dark
According to rumors, the family of Mullah Mohammad Omar were kept in the dark for some time after his death due to security concerns. An Afghan official spoke to me on condition of anonymity and said that a perfect lie had been groomed with the assistance of Pakistani intelligence and with the collaboration of Mullah Akhtar, a close aid to Mullah Mohammad Omar. Of course, this will be very difficult to verify if it is indeed true. Afghan officials had reportedly learned about Mullah Mohammad Omar’s death almost fifteen days ago and since the secret couldn’t kept hidden no longer it has been publicized despite the peace talks. The peace talks began in March between the current government of Afghanistan and Taliban in Pakistan whom were hosting the talks with the present of the representatives from the U.S. and China. The talks were supposed to be resumed after Ramadan but now the talks have been suspended at the request of the Taliban, according to Pakistan.
The mysterious leader
The world heard about the mysterious leader of the Taliban who hasn’t been seen in public for years but the news also revealed that an ambitious person called Mullah Akhtar a has been fabricating messages on behalf of his master for three years. Mohaz Ghadafi, the leader of Tehrik-e-Islam, another insurgent group in a statement claims that Mullah Mohammad Omar was poisoned and killed by Mullah Akhtar as a result of his collaboration with the U.S. intelligence service. In Afghanistan, there is another rumor about his death and it’s centered on the ISI, Pakistan’s Intelligence Service, and its alleged involvement with the assistance of Mullah Akhatar. These rumors have, of course, not been corroborated. There is no proof regarding wither of these stories but there is no doubt that the Pakistani officials should have known about his death and for some reason decided to let Mullah Akhtar play the leader’s role and keep the secret. The opening of a Taliban office in Qatar and the exchange of prisoners from Guantanamo for a American soldier can all now be seen as part of the collaboration that happened in the absence of Mullah Akhtar.
Circulating rumors
Rumors have been circulating that the death of Mullah Omar was orchestrated in order to jeopardize the authenticity of the peace talks. Although this cannot be verified, Mullah Akhtar released an audio recording in a bid to control the damage. This was the same man who in July approved a face to face meeting between the Taliban delegation and Afghan officials arranged by Pakistan. It is still unclear whether he will pursue peace or war. What it makes the Afghans worried is the internal divisions among the Taliban which could merge with ISIS. There is a possibility that an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as its head. Divisions in the Taliban are mirrored by divisions in the Afghan government between President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. This lack of coordination has left the country with a very weak security situation. Once again, Pakistan is left to make the choice: will it be peace or war in Afghanistan?

Syria’s red lines: A sketch by many painters
Mohamed Chebarro/Al Arabiya/Monday, 3 August 2015
Numerous are the scenarios for how to fail best in Syria and lengthen the suffering of millions of Syrians. The Turkish - U.S. deal to engage in the Syrian crisis but only through the window of fighting ISIS and the PKK is another step in the same direction. The Turks, who in return for opening their airbases for the international coalition fighting unsuccessfully to curb ISIS presence in Syria and Iraq, will be given a free hand to clip the wings of the PKK and the PYD despite the peace process underway between the PKK and President Erdogan’s government since 2012. Even if the Turkish President is true to his published motives of clearing a major part of Northern Syria from ISIS with the sole aim to repatriate some of the 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, this will not be without major challenges
Ankara is opposed to any form of direct control by the Syrian Kurds of the border areas between the two countries, as both the PKK and PYD seem to control hundreds of kilometers of the Syrian Turkish border towns and villages close to the volatile South Eastern Turkey inhabited by Turkey’s Kurdish minority.
Erdogan's renewed campaign
The Government of President Erdogan's renewed campaign against ISIS and the PKK is seen by many as twofolds. it is primarily designed to limit Kurdish influence within and outside Turkey. Also it is just another bid by the beleaguered Turkish President Erdogan to win much needed steam to regroup and reclaim a lost majority in parliament following the last elections which allowed an array of mainly Kurdish, nationalistic parties to gain seats. But even if the Turkish President is true to his published motives of clearing a major part of Northern Syria from ISIS with the sole aim to repatriate some of the 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, this will not be without major challenges. The Kurds are no longer a simple force whom Turkey is capable of taming especially in view of renewed training and arming by western forces that started 12 months ago in a bid to restrain if not eliminate ISIS and similar groups in Syria. The Syrian regime also is still flying his killer helicopters loaded with barrel bombs where he pleases. Though President Assad’s embattled and disoriented army is weak now, Assad will not facilitate the emergence of a de-facto safe haven even if it is coming four years late. The Syrian fixed wings aircraft are still crossing paths with the coalition U.S., Canadian and British jets among others seeking ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq. This cannot be possible without some form of coordination directly or indirectly with the international coalition. So will the regime turn a blind eye as well to Turkish air force jets targeting ISIS and PKK in Syria? Assad’s regime might choose to do so now, but also this regime is likely to test Ankara ‘s resolve at any junction specially if it is to go ahead with forming an ISIS-free region where anti Syrian regime forces are likely to congregate and potentially launch attacks at Syrian regime controlled areas.
A work in progress
The Turkish -U.S. understanding is a work in progress as we are led to believe by Turkish and American officials diverging interpretation of the deal. It is this divergence that has plagued the chances to settle the Syrian question and help find the light at the end of the tunnel for millions of Syrians. Fighting ISIS must be part of a comprehensive plan regionally and internationally. Fighting ISIS in the north of Syria and leaving the organization free to grow new jihadists in the center of the country or across the porous Iraqi border will be catastrophic with time. Fighting ISIS while leaving the regime responsible for killing Syrians and destroying the country shows the double standard and inability of the western powers to agree on one interpretation vis a vis the regime as a culprit and guilty of genocide and crimes against humanity and not just against the Syrians. Fighting ISIS and leaving Iranian and Iraqi militias and Lebanese ones in control of other enclaves free to commit ethnic cleansing and or crimes against Syrians is also a time bomb that will explode according to timers set by regional powers to undermine any deal. It is clear that the U.S. and Turkey are seeing their new understanding as a work in progress but dealing with Syria with blinkered goggles will further exacerbate the Syrian civil war.
The blood of the Syrians.
The regional and international powers drawn into the Syrian conflict seem to have few red lines drawn with the blood of the Syrians. Among those red lines an unspoken one that enforces a stalemate until further notice. So for now, no clear victory could be accorded to any party while other potfolios are being settled such as the nuclear deal with Iran, the Saudi Iranian proxy confrontation from Bahrain to Yemen and not excluding Gaza, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. The safety of minorities in Syria is also another red line and any attempt to approach their areas is a red line highlighted in bold. We saw the advances halted on what is known as the southern front in Daraa, once opposition forces reached the Druze Syrian area of Soweida. Similarly advances to take Shia villages near Aleppo were discouraged as well as incursions towards Latakia. In all cases, it seems that the time has not come to deal with such questions.
Driving Sunni Syrians from their land is fine but minorities is a big faux pas for now.
Another red line was the use of chemical weapons, all forms of chemicals. That red line has been crossed repeatedly in the last three years, and instead of punishing the culprits, the international community simply went after the tool of the crime sanctioning indirectly its continued use. Safe zones or no- fly zones are also a key red line, although I believe the international community should have pushed for those in the name of peace and stability of a volatile region and to keep millions of Syrians in their country rather than to spread those in more than four countries. Of course, Syrian opposition factions, split between religious and non-religious armed groups, could render these zones rather unsafe due to infighting, but miracles are still possible in the Middle East and if an ISIS free zone or a Safe Area is established with the help of Turkey it would be a way to shyly break one of the Syrian crisis many red lines, this time by Turkey’s Erdogan.

Saudi Arabia’s big absence
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/Monday, 3 August 2015
Saudi Arabia’s project to restore stability in the region is being subjected to a series of smear campaigns. I came under this impression after two meetings in Washington and a few others in Berlin with a group of researchers and diplomats interested in the region’s affairs who do not believe that Saudi Arabia’s motives in the region are “moral” and are not convinced that the kingdom can achieve such a large-scale mission.
Even those who are familiar with Saudi Arabia, such as political observer Mohammad Hassanein Heikal who is certainly well aware of the kingdom’s aims, angered Saudis. In his last interview with as-Safir newspaper, he said: “When Gamal Abdel Nasser intervened in Yemen, he was helping a liberation movement and had no common borders with this country whereas Saudi Arabia has constant demands from Yemen having already seized two of its provinces.” During the TV show, Heikal addressed many other negative opinions about the kingdom but this sentence in particular shows, I believe, how ignorant he is of the Saudi role in Yemen. It seems he has not noticed that Saudi Arabia aims to build a new Yemen, complete with a pluralistic government and wishes to prevent it from falling under Iranian domination which not only threatens Saudi Arabia’s national security but that of Egypt’s too!
Let us carry out a survey on the activities of Saudi embassies in the main capitals of the world. How many conferences were held? When did a Saudi ambassador deliver a speech in a major research center?
Is it possible that Mr. Heikal is unaware of this, despite his claim that he meets the Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi once a week - according to what he once said in an interview - and apparently discusses current developments in Egypt and the region with the leader. If for some reason he is unaware of the manner in which Saudi Arabia’s plans are propping up national security, perhaps the Egyptian president, who is a coalition partner in the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, has informed him of the true intentions of the kingdom. Those intentions do not include eradicate the Houthis but for some reason Heikal is not aware of that. Instead, the Saudis want to encourage the Houthis to accept partnership with Yemen’s other political components.
How can a prominent researcher and political analyst such as Heikal, who has studied the Yemeni case since Abdullah al-Wazir’s coup against the Imam Yahya, lose sight of that? I tend to always favor goodwill and prefer to blame my own people who lost contact with the intelligentsia of our close ally, Cairo, and fail to explain the Saudi project, leaving the door open for Houthis and Egyptians to demonstrate, in front of the Saudi embassy at times, in a bid to share their ideas on what they call the “Saudi offensive on Yemen.”
Missing in action
Yes, we are absent in terms of popular and official diplomacy not only in Cairo but also in Washington, Berlin and all Arabic and foreign countries at a time when we are leading the most important current campaign, if not the only one capable of saving the region. However, it is being carried out without a parallel active international public relations campaign to clarify its purpose to achieve support. This complex and multifaceted operation is called lobbying. Let us admit that we do not have an organized and effective Saudi lobbying system. What is painful is that after complaining about the Zionist lobby in the United States and its expansion and activities, even against the kingdom, we are now subjected to the effects of the Iranian lobby which emerged strong and effective due to the historical deal between Iran and the West which aims to bring the two together.
Let us carry out a survey on the activities of Saudi embassies in the main capitals of the world. How many conferences were held? When did a Saudi ambassador deliver a speech in a major research center? They even decline media requests for interviews. I only remember the activities of Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Prince Mohammad Bin Nawaf, and its permanent representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Abdullah Mualimi. I might have overlooked a lecture or two by one of the kingdom’s ambassadors but, in general, Saudi diplomacy is weak if not absent.
Where are the friendly institutions that can help the kingdom in this time of need? If this were to begin, the work would not produce a positive outcome. It should have been initiated at least ten years ago in order for us to reap the benefits now. Let no one say we didn’t expect an agreement between the West and Iran that would change the regional political equation and an operation in Yemen. Let no one say we didn’t consider the possibility of a coup perpetrated by the Houthis and our old ally, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the total collapse of Syria, the division of Iraq and the revolution in Egypt. These excuses are not convincing for two reasons: First, the current events are nothing but the result of yesterday’s misfortunes, from Kuwait’s invasion and the ensuing war, the September 11 bombings and Algeria’s uprising in 1988 to the assassination of late Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri which revealed the true face of the Syrian regime and Iran’s project in the region. As for the nuclear deal, the first meeting between the two negotiating parties took place a decade ago. Saudi Arabia’s absence due to an “unexpected” turn of events cannot therefore be justified at all.
Irrelevant excuse
Further proof of the irrelevance of this excuse is the fact that others had prepared for this day while we were busy, in the aftermath of September 11, sweeping away the accusations heaped upon us. The Rockefeller Fund chose to study Iran as if trying to find an alternative for our Sunnite world and had gathered, by the end of 2001, a number of retired American scholars to create the “Iran project” which involved $4.3 million spent on meetings and workshops in order to speed up the establishment of an agreement with Iran. This project revolves around dissolving fears over Iran’s nuclear project and seemingly on giving Iran an important regional role. This project has greatly benefitted Iran, allowing it to create its own lobby group in the U.S. made up of American professors of Iranian origin. Some are opposed to the American government while others will be automatically arrested once they set foot in Tehran. However, they put their differences aside for the sake of higher national interest. Some of them are well-respected authors and researchers in the American academic field, such as the prestigious author Vali Nasr and Trita Parsi, a Swedish of Iranian origin, who is one of the leading advocates of Iran and founder of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) which became the spearhead of the Iranian lobby in Washington.
In the coming article, I will provide details on a study I have gained access to in Berlin which forecasts that the kingdom will lose the war in Yemen. I assume its author has changed his or her mind after the latest victories in Aden. I have also participated in a workshop that took place in Washington where I found that the majority of participants were skeptical about the operation’s purposes and were accusing the kingdom of cooperating with ISIS during Aden’s liberation. In my eyes, it seems that the Iranian lobby is doing a good job, not only in Beirut but even as far as Washington.
I will close this article by quoting a prestigious writer for The Times magazine, Joe Klein, who I met when I was in Washington working with Prince Turki al Faisal who was an ambassador back then. When we were heading to the prince’s office to conduct an interview, Klein told me: “The prince’s daily press relations and public diplomatic activity done here are similar to what the Israelis were accomplishing throughout the past forty years. If you go on like this for one more decade, the American press and public opinion will change its outlook toward Saudi Arabia.” We haven’t achieved that, but Prince Turki still calls for the emergence of a new generation of young Saudi diplomats who can be proficient in public diplomacy. He believes that ambassadorial duties have changed: “When the king of the country needs to contact the head of another country, he can make a direct call through a secure telephone line; nonetheless he is unable to respond to the request of a journalist from a local newspaper in Ohio or a scholar from a university in the North of Texas. This has become the job of the ambassador,” I believe he once said. Truth to be told, he accomplished his mission during his short stay there and it is time to adopt his point of view in future diplomatic work. We hold a fair and moral cause but we do not know how to defend it and share it with the rest of the world.

Iran plans missile tests to flaunt defiance of Vienna deal and UNSC resolution
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2015
Shortly before US Secretary of State John Kerry was due in Qatar Monday, Aug. 3, Iran’s highest authorities led by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Sunday launched a public campaign to support Tehran’s noncompliance with the Vienna nuclear accord and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 of July 20, on its ballistic missile program. The campaign was designed by a team from Khamenei’s office, high-ranking ayatollahs and the top echelons of the Revolutionary Guards, including its chief, Gen. Ali Jafari.
It was kicked off with a batch of petitions fired off by the students of nine Tehran universities and Qom religious seminaries to Iran’s chief of staff Maj Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, demanding immediate tests of long-range ballistic missiles to prove that the missile ban was invalid. It was essential, said one student letter, “…to underline the necessity for protecting the country’s defense capabilities and ensuring continued development of Iran’s ballistic missile capability.”
The students, whose influence on public opinion is substantial, went on to argue: “Firing the ballistic missiles in military drills would discourage the US Congress, the Israeli Knesset and their regional Takfiri mercenaries (a reference to the Islamic State) from future strikes against the Islamic Republic.” The Security Council Resolution, which unanimously endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Vienna nuclear accord) signed by Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, called on Iran “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic technology until the date eight years after the JCPOA Adoption Day.”
Tehran retorted that none of its ballistic missiles were designed to deliver nuclear weapons, and so this provision was void. Shortly after its passage, the foreign ministry in Tehran issued an assurance that “…the country’s ballistic missile program and capability is untouched and unrestricted by Resolution 2231.”On July 30, Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s senior adviser on international affairs and member of the Expediency Council, told reporters, “The recent UNSC Resolution on Iran’s defensive capabilities, specially (sic) its missiles, is unacceptable to Iran.”debkafile’s Iranian sources report that Tehran deliberately engineered this campaign’s timing for it to surface the day before the arrival of John Kerry, the live wire behind the Vienna Accord, in Doha, Qatar, Monday. He has defined his mission as an effort to ease the concerns of the Gulf and other Arab nations about the negative affect of the accord on their security. Before taking off from Cairo Sunday, Kerry issued this emphatic statement: “There can be absolutely no question that if the [Iran deal] is fully implemented, it will make Egypt and all the countries of this region safer.” This proposition may be harder than ever to sell to Iran’s neighbors once its ballistic missiles are launched over their heads

Erdogan's Bait and Switch in Northern Syria
Jonathan Spyer/The Jerusalem Post/August 03/15
The real target of Turkey's intervention in Syria is not the Islamic State or the Assad regime, but the Kurds.
The latest events in northern Syria constitute a bold move by the Turkish leadership to deal with a most pressing problem, from its point of view.
That problem is not the continued existence of the Assad regime, far to the south. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would certainly like to see the end of this regime. But its continued truncated existence between Damascus and the coast and in isolated spots elsewhere does not constitute an immediate danger for the Turkish leader.
The issue is also not Islamic State. Certainly the killing of a Turkish soldier in a firefight on the border near the town of Kielis with Islamic State terrorists last Thursday will have angered Erdogan. But this alone cannot explain the sudden dramatic series of moves in subsequent days. After all, until now, the Turkish government's attitude toward Islamic State had been one of tolerance and at times cooperation. Recent revelations indicate a laissez-faire attitude toward Islamic State oil trading across the border, and to the transport of fighters across the border.
Neither the Assad regime nor Islamic State constitutes an immediate danger for President Erdogan.
The strikes against Islamic State by the Turkish air force, and the decision to grant the US Air Force permission to use the Incirlik base near Adana constitute a feint.
Ankara's stated intention of using its air power to create a 90-km. wide area of control between Jarabulus and Marea along the Syrian-Turkish border is directed against the ambitions of the Kurds, not those of Islamic State.
Why, then, has Erdogan decided to move against the Syrian Kurds?
Since January, Kurdish political stock has been steadily rising in the West. In the Kurdish YPG (Peoples' Protection Units), the US found a reliable, non-Islamist ally that was willing and capable to act as a ground force against Islamic State in northern Syria. The combination of the YPG on the ground, and the USAF in the skies proved sufficient to save the besieged town of Kobani, and then to push the jihadis back to Tel Abyad in the east and to the outskirts of Jarabulus in the west.
Syrian Kurdish political stock has been steadily rising in the West, worrying Turkey.
These victories, however, were worrying from the Turkish point of view. First, as a result of their eastern advance, the Kurds were able to unite two of the three cantons they have established along the long Syrian-Turkish border. The creation of a corridor linking the Jazira canton, which stretches from the Syria-Iraq border to the town of Sere Kaniye (Ras al-Ain), with the reconstituted Kobani enclave gave the Kurds control over a long and contiguous stretch of border.
No less important, the favorable publicity accruing to the Kurds because of their fight against Islamic State, and the presence of women fighters and secular Western volunteers in their ranks, served to turn the Syrian Kurds from a forgotten minority into the recipient of favorable and growing Western attention.
Still worse, from the Turkish point of view, the entirety of the remaining border area not under Kurdish control (with the exception of a tiny enclave around the town of Azaz) was in the hands of Islamic State. The logic of the situation thus appeared to suggest that a Kurdish offensive west of the Euphrates to drive Islamic State from the region, with the help of US air power, might be in the offing.
Turkey's intervention was designed to preempt a US-backed Kurdish offensive to drive Islamic State west of the Euphrates.
An offensive of this kind would have driven Islamic State from the border in its entirety. But it would almost certainly have had the additional effect of enabling the YPG to unite the Kobani enclave with the third Kurdish canton in northern Syria, established around the town of Afrin.
This, in turn, would have given de facto control of the entirety of the 800-km. border between Syria and Turkey to a Kurdish autonomous entity ruled over by the PYD (Democratic Union Party). The PYD is the Syrian franchise of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). The PKK is (or was) engaged in a stalled peace process with the government of Turkey. Core issues remain unresolved. Erdogan could not tolerate the emergence of a de facto Kurdish sovereignty stretching along the entirety of this border.
Hence the evident decision to intervene in northern Syria using air power. This is an attempt to mimic the successful pairing of US air power with Kurdish ground force that has driven the Islamic State back to the east and south. Erdogan wants to pair his air force with Sunni Islamist rebels in Aleppo and Idleb provinces, in order to destroy the Islamic State stronghold between Jarabulus and Marea. At the same time, as seen this week in the town of Zor Maghar, force will also be employed to deter the YPG from making any move west of the Euphrates.
The anti-Islamic State rebels Turkey will be helping include Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian franchise of al-Qaida.
The Sunni rebels in question will almost certainly be the Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest). This is a Turkish-, Qatari- and Saudi-supported gathering of Sunni Islamist forces, which includes Jabhat al-Nusra (the Syrian franchise of al-Qaida) and Ahrar ash-Sham, a powerful Salafi armed group.
If this venture is successful, the end result will be the removal of Islamic State from the border in its entirety, and its replacement, between Kobani and Afrin, by other Islamist rebel groups supported by Turkey.
This is the mission on which Erdogan is now embarked. It appears to have dimensions beyond northern Syria. The attacks on the PKK in Qandil and the threats to strip HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party) parliament members of immunity may point to a broader political logic. Erdogan may be seeking to leverage the crisis with the Kurds for political gain, fanning the fires of Turkish nationalist sentiment to mobilize votes in a renewed general election.
He may be hoping to achieve the sought for parliamentary majority, which eluded him in elections earlier this year, and which he needs to bring about constitutional reform and expanded powers for the presidency.
But most urgently, the Turkish move into Syria is directed against the advances – physical and political – made by Syria's Kurds in the course of the past year. Just how far Erdogan will go in pursuit of the goal of turning back the clock in Syrian Kurdistan remains to be seen. But contrary to much Western reporting, Turkey's entry into the war in Syria does not constitute a belated reconciling by Ankara of a Western-led agenda vis-à-vis the war. Rather, Erdogan is carrying out a bait-and-switch move, founded on partnering with Sunni Islamist groups in order to reduce or destroy Kurdish aspirations.
** Jonathan Spyer, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is director of the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and author of The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2011).

Who Is Destroying the Palestinian Dream?
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/August 3, 2015
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6214/palestinian-dream
Hamas's totalitarian rule over the Gaza Strip seems to be nearing its end, as the Islamist movement faces increased challenges from various militias in the area. Many Palestinians are worried that Gaza will fall into the hands of Islamic State or Al-Qaeda.
"By Allah's will, we will uproot the state of the Jews and you [Hamas] and others will vanish as the Gaza Strip will be ruled by sharia, whether you like it or not." — Spokesman for the Islamic State.
In public, Hamas leaders do not admit that their movement is being challenged by Islamic State and Al-Qaeda supporters in Gaza. It is more convenient for them to blame "Israeli occupation" for the violence, on the pretext that only Israel is interested in removing Hamas from power. This claim, however, has proven to be untrue.
It is time for the international community to realize that the Palestinian dream of establishing an independent state is being destroyed by none other than the Palestinians themselves.
The Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, which Palestinians hope will one day become part of a future Palestinian state, is quickly sliding toward anarchy and chaos.
Since its violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in the summer of 2007, Hamas has maintained a tight grip on the area, home to some 1.7 million Palestinians. But now Hamas's totalitarian rule over the Gaza Strip seems to be nearing its end, as the Islamist movement faces increased challenges from various militias and groups in the area.
Some of Hamas's rivals belong to more radical terror groups such as the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda-affiliated militias created by salafi-jihadis inside the Gaza Strip. Others belong to the secular Fatah faction, whose members continue to dream of the day when they will be able to topple the Hamas regime and regain control over the Gaza Strip.
The radical Islamist terror groups are seeking to overthrow Hamas because they believe that the movement is too "soft" when it comes to implementing sharia laws and fighting against Israel. The goal of these groups is to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Gaza Strip and wipe Israel off the face of the earth.
In a recent video posted on the Internet, the Islamic State announced that its men would soon reach the Gaza Strip and remove the Hamas "tyrants" from power. "By Allah's will, we will uproot the state of the Jews and you [Hamas] and others will vanish as the Gaza Strip will be ruled by sharia whether you like it or not," warned a masked spokesman for the Islamic State.
Palestinian sources in the Gaza Strip say that the Islamic State has managed over the past few months to recruit hundreds of young men to its ranks. According to the sources, most of the men who joined the Islamic State are former members of the armed wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, in addition to a number of disgruntled Fatah militiamen who are unhappy with the policies of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the leader of its Fatah movement, Mahmoud Abbas -- especially his declared opposition to terror attacks against Israel.
Palestinians waving Islamic State flags attempt to storm the French Cultural Center in Gaza City, in January 2015. (Image source: ehna tv YouTube screenshot)
Late last year, a salafi-jihadi militia in the Gaza Strip pledged allegiance to Islamic State, posing yet another major challenge to Hamas.
Until recently, Hamas leaders used to boast about their movement's success in restoring law and order after years of anarchy and lawlessness under the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip. But the "utopia" that Hamas claims to have created is facing an existential threat, as the Gaza Strip witnesses a sharp increase in internal violence. Some Palestinians are even beginning to wonder whether Hamas has already lost control over the entire Gaza Strip.
The violence reached its peak last week when a series of simultaneous explosions rocked the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City. The explosions targeted the cars of six senior commanders of the armed wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. No casualties were reported.
The latest bombings are considered a severe blow to Hamas, particularly in light of the fact that they occurred in an area heavily guarded by its security forces.
Some reports suggested that the Islamic State was behind the attacks, which came as a shock to Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders in the Gaza Strip.
A number of Hamas officials said they did not rule out the possibility that Fatah members were behind the explosions. The officials claim that Fatah has an interest in showing the world that Hamas is not in control of the situation in the Gaza Strip. In the past, Hamas accused Fatah of being behind another wave of bombings that also targeted its men in the Gaza Strip.
In public, however, Hamas leaders do not like to admit that their movement is also being challenged by supporters of the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda inside the Gaza Strip. For these leaders, it is more convenient to blame "Israeli occupation" for the violence, on the pretext that Israel is the only party interested in removing Hamas from power.
This claim, however, has proven to be untrue in wake of public threats by various Palestinian groups against Hamas. The attempt to lay the blame at Israel's door reflects the growing anxiety of the Hamas leadership, which has stubbornly and consistently denied the existence of Islamic State and Al-Qaeda terrorists inside the Gaza Strip.
Here is what Ismail al-Ashqar, a top Hamas official, had to say about the latest bombings: "Gaza shall remain secure and calm and stable, and there will be no return to the previous state of anarchy as the occupation and its collaborators wish. The Israeli occupation is fully responsible for the explosions."
Ashqar acknowledged that relations between his movement and Fatah were "very bad and tense," especially in the aftermath of the Palestinian Authority's recent crackdown on Hamas men in the West Bank. In recent weeks, according to Palestinian sources, PA security forces in the West Bank have arrested more than 250 Hamas men, on suspicion that they were plotting to undermine President Mahmoud Abbas's regime.
The confrontation between Hamas and its rivals inside the Gaza Strip is likely to escalate in the coming weeks and months. Hamas now has so many enemies inside the Gaza Strip that to combat them, it would have to step up its repressive measures. These measures, however, will only lead to more retaliatory attacks by anti-Hamas forces, and plunge the Gaza Strip into a state of increased anarchy and chaos. Many Palestinians are worried that the Gaza Strip will sooner or later fall into the hands of Islamic State or Al-Qaeda.
In the West Bank, meanwhile, such a threat does not exist, largely thanks to Israeli security measures against terror infrastructure and cells. The Palestinian Authority, for its part, is also waging a massive campaign against Hamas and other Islamist groups in the West Bank. The PA is not doing this out of concern for the "peace process" with Israel; Mahmoud Abbas and his lieutenants know that these Islamists will kill them first on their way to killing Jews.
The growing state of anarchy in the Gaza Strip, as well as the continued power struggle between Hamas and Fatah, do not bode well for those who still believe that the creation of a Palestinian state will bring about peace and stability in the region. The way things are going these days, particularly in the Gaza Strip, it seems that a future Palestinian state will be added to the list of Arab countries that are currently witnessing civil wars and bloodbaths.
It is time for the international community to wake up and realize that the Palestinian dream of establishing an independent state is being destroyed by none other than the Palestinians themselves.

The Islamic State's Campaign Plan
Vijeta Uniyal/Gatestone Institute/August 3, 2015
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6275/islamic-state-india
ISIS wants to trigger this final conflict by unleashing attacks on Indian soil. If the U.S. comes to India's aid, ISIS would declare a global Jihad, calling upon a billion Muslims to heed the call.
Despite the propaganda onslaught by ISIS, Indian authorities have apparently not yet grasped the true nature of the conflict between ISIS and India that is unfolding before their eyes. As ISIS raises an army among Indian Muslims and publicizes its apocalyptic goals for the Indian subcontinent, some in the Indian establishment still hope to lure the ISIS rank-and-file with government-funded welfare programs.
"Accept the fact that this caliphate will survive and prosper until it takes over the entire world and beheads every last person that rebels against Allah. ... This is the bitter truth, swallow it." — The Islamic State.
President Obama might not yet have a strategy to combat the Islamic State (ISIS), but the Islamic State has a strategy. It is, apparently, to bring about the "end of the world." According to a document uncovered by American Media Institute (AMI) and reviewed by U.S. intelligence officials, ISIS is preparing to attack India, in the hope of forcing the U.S. to come to India's aid and get mired in an apocalyptic conflict.
In the document, written in prophetic style and entitled, "A Brief History of the Islamic State Caliphate (ISC), The Caliphate According to the Prophet," ISIS calls upon different jihadist factions operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan to come under its banner. It urges al-Qaeda in the region to submit to the authority of the Islamic empire or "Caliphate" and recognize ISIS as the sole ruler of a billion Muslims across the world.
The document was written in Urdu, the predominant language of Muslims in the Indian Subcontinent, and describes future apocalyptic battles in detail, charting out a roadmap for the destruction of the U.S. and its allies.
According to USA Today, the document was reviewed by three U.S. intelligence officials, who confirmed the authenticity of the document based on its unique markers and accurate used of terminology. Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, described the document as "Islamic State's campaign plan."
ISIS wants to trigger this final conflict by unleashing attacks on Indian soil. If the U.S. comes to embattled India's aid, ISIS would declare a global Jihad, calling upon a billion Muslims to heed the call. In ISIS's own words, "Even if the U.S tries to attack with all its allies, which undoubtedly it will, the ummah [global Muslim community] will be united, resulting in the final battle."
Certain of its final victory, ISIS declares in the document, "Accept the fact that this caliphate will survive and prosper until it takes over the entire world and beheads every last person that rebels against Allah. ... This is the bitter truth, swallow it."
The reality on the ground in India seems to confirm the ISIS strategy document. In recent months, Indian security forces have been raising the alarm about the increasing influence of ISIS among India's Muslim youth. India is home to the world's second largest Muslim population. Numbering about 180 million, Muslims make up about 14% of India's population. According to Pew Research, by 2050, India will have world's largest population of Muslims, estimated at 311 million.
With the effective use of the internet and social media, ISIS has outpaced Al-Qaeda and positioned itself as terror outfit of choice among India's radicalized Muslim youth. ISIS flags are now a regular feature at demonstrations in India's Muslim-majority Kashmir province.
In 2014, this photo of Muslim ISIS supporters in India's Tamil Nadu state went viral on Twitter.
India is not at the periphery of ISIS's strategy for global dominance, but is its cornerstone. Indian Muslims have already joined the ranks of ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq, and are now actively recruiting for ISIS as online propagandists.
The July 27 terrorist attack in India's Gurdaspur district carried the signature of ISIS -- suicide attacks against military targets of the "infidels." A group of jihadists entered a police station and, while shouting "'Allahu Akbar!" ["Allah is Greater!"], went on a killing spree.
Despite the all-out propaganda onslaught by ISIS, Indian authorities have apparently not yet grasped the true nature of the conflict between ISIS and India that is unfolding before their eyes. As ISIS raises an army among Indian Muslims and publicizes its apocalyptic goals for the Indian subcontinent, some in the Indian establishment still hope to lure the ISIS rank-and-file with government-funded welfare programs. Recently, talking to media, a senior Indian army commander cited "lack of [job] opportunities" and feelings of "alienation" as the main reasons for the rising influence of ISIS among Muslim youth. If only.

Articles In Egypt: Turkey, Qatar Fund Terror, Are Responsible For Bloodshed In Arab World
MEMRI/August 3, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6122
Following the assassination of Egypt’s prosecutor-general, Hisham Barakat, on July 29, 2015, and ISIS’s terror attack in Sinai two days later, in which some 70 Egyptian soldiers were killed, the Egyptian press directed harsh criticism at Qatar and Turkey, accusing them of financing terror in Egypt and other Middle East countries. Articles stated that Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Qatar under Sheikh Tamim Aal Thani, support the extremist terrorist organizations in the region and fund them, and thus “sow destruction in the Middle East” and “turn Arab countries into hell for their citizens.” They called to expand the war on terror to include drying up its sources of funding, and to take legal measures against the leaders of Qatar and Turkey, who were described as responsible for the bloodshed in the Arab world and as dancing over the bodies of innocent victims.
It should be noted that claims of this kind against Qatar and Turkey have been heard in Egypt since the ouster of president Muhammad Mursi in July 2013. These countries, which support the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), hold that Mursi’s rule was toppled in a military coup, and therefore regard President Al-Sisi’s rule as illegitimate. Egypt, for its part, accuses the two countries of supporting the MB, which is outlawed in the country, as well as jihad organizations like ISIS. These mutual accusations caused Egypt’s relations with Turkey and Qatar to deteriorate, to the extent that in November 2013 Egypt expelled the Turkish ambassador and recalled its own ambassador from Ankara.[1] In January 2014 it also recalled its ambassador from Doha,[2] and the latter, in turn, recalled its ambassador from Cairo in February 2015. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to broker a reconciliation between Egypt and Qatar, which began in late 2014 as part of its attempts to form a broad Sunni coalition against Iran, did not bear fruit.
The following are excerpts from Egyptian articles accusing Qatar and Turkey of sponsoring terror and calling for a diplomatic campaign against them.
Following the Qatari Emir’s July 13, 2015 visit to Turkey, during which he met with Erdogan and discussed, among other topics, the war on terror, the editor of the government Egyptian daily Al-Ahram, Muhammad ‘Abd Al-Hadi Allam, wondered how the leaders of two countries that are known for sponsoring terror can discuss the war against terror. He wrote in a July 17 article: “Sponsoring the armed organizations in the Arab world has become an ideology for certain governments that sow destruction across the Middle East. In the absence of any regional or international element to deter them, some of them imagine that their money is enough to protect them from [these] terror organizations, but they are surely deluding themselves. In the recent days, in the latest scene of this tragedy, the media reported that the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim, visited Ankara and discussed various issues with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Ergodan, among them ‘the war on terror.’ This is surprising, for we have no idea what terror is referred to by [these] official announcements that came out of the Qatari-Turkish summit, especially considering that the two governments [of Qatar and Turkey] insist on funding and arming these [terror] organizations out of their own narrow interests, and pay no heed to the voices that oppose their interference, which ignites more and more fires in the Middle East…
“The dubious Qatari-Turkish coordination peaked recently with the announcement that Qatar will host a large Turkish military base, the first [Turkish base to be built] outside Turkey, as part of agreements that were signed between the [two] countries. This will even further serve their interest to support terror, and fuel the policy of ‘absolute evil’ that they are employing towards the peace-loving peoples of the Middle East, namely [the policy of] hatching conspiracies in closed rooms and then coming out to face the cameras with false smiles and dance over the severed limbs of the innocent. The day will come when all the despicable cards [of Qatar and Turkey] will be revealed, [those states] that have turned the Arab countries into hell for their citizens…”[3]
Al-Ahram cartoon: “Erdogan’s Schizophrenia”: on the one hand he calls to “help ISIS” and on the other to “fight ISIS” (July 6, 2015)
‘Al-Ahram’ Editorial: Even Europe Understands That Qatar Finances Terror; A Joint International Struggle Needed Against Terror-Sponsoring States
A July 6, 2015 editorial in Al-Ahram stated that today, even France, Spain and Britain understand that certain states, including Qatar, are transferring funds to radical terrorist organizations. The article urged the West and the Arab states to work together to stem the funding of terror and to fight countries that support it: “France, Spain and Britain have not only begun taking firm measures against those who travel [to join] ISIS and those who have returned from Syria and Iraq. They have also initiated a serious investigation into the role of states such as Qatar, which transfer funds to radical terrorist groups. The Spanish newspaper El-Mundo reported that the Spanish police has identified six Islamist Salafist organizations that receive funds from Arab states, chiefly from Qatar… The Egyptian military establishment [also] understands the magnitude of the terrorist threat against Egypt… This obligates Europe, Egypt and [other] Arab states to cooperate and launch a coordinated war not only against the armed terrorists but also against their international sources of funding and dry them up…”[4]
Several days later, following a July 10, 2015 interview that Sheikha Mozah, the wife of the former Qatari emir and the mother of the present ruler, gave to the Financial Times, an Al-Ahram editorial again accused Qatar and the ruling Aal Thani family of financing terror in the Arab world. The Financial Times interview stated that it is “widely assumed the Sheikha shared, if not encouraged, her husband’s enthusiasm for the Arab revolutions of 2011, particularly his backing for Islamists in Egypt, where she grew up, and Libya where her father worked,” but that “she insists she had no say in his policies.” However, the Al-Ahram editorial, published three days after the interview, misrepresented what was said in it, claiming that Sheikha Moza had admitted supporting her husband’s efforts to aid the Islamists with the outbreak of the Arab Spring, especially in Egypt, and that this constituted proof that Qatar supports terrorist organizations in the Arab world.
The editorial stated: “Now nobody can rebuke Egypt [any longer] for accusing Qatar of being behind the terror that is plaguing the country. Sheikha Mozah, the mother of Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim, revealed in an interview with the British Financial Times that when the Arab Spring revolutions erupted, she supported with all her might the efforts of her husband, the former Qatari ruler Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Aal Thani, to help the Islamists, particularly in Egypt. Her confessions are proof for all those who refused to believe that Qatar is complicit [in encouraging terror], including for the Iranians [and for everyone else] who stubbornly refuse to accept that a small country like Qatar is capable of harming countries in the Arab world, especially Egypt. In fact, the complaint regarding Qatar’s grave offenses has been repeatedly made not only by Egypt but by additional countries, such as Libya, Tunisia, Syria, etc.
“It is amazing that [Sheikha Mozah], the strong woman in the Qatari corridors of power, insists on being bothered by the criticism directed at her country! It must be asked: should others applaud Qatar while it extends financial, political and diplomatic assistance to the terror organizations, and should Egypt cheer [Qatar's] brazen media incitement and its constant justification of acts of violence and terror? It is ironic that the Al-Jazeera network, the media mouthpiece of terror and terrorists, accuses [Egypt of employing] excessive force against the terrorists of the ISIS organization… In the current situation, Sheikha Mozah and her husband Hamad must understand that they are responsible for the blood that flowed and continues to flow in the Arab streets”.[5]
Egyptian Columnist: The Turkish And Qatari Regimes Should Be Prosecuted In International Courts
Yousuf ‘Ayyoub, a columnist for the Egyptian daily Al-Yawm Al-Sabi’, also accused Qatar and Turkey of financing and supporting terror. He wrote that there was no point in seeking reconciliation with these countries, which are hostile to the Egyptian people, and that they should be prosecuted in international tribunals. He wrote: “Today, the Egyptian government must find new ways to contend with the repeated violation of [Egypt's sovereignty] by Qatar and Turkey. The recalling of ambassadors, a measure which [Egypt] has employed with these two countries, and which is the most severe of diplomatic measures, is effective only with regimes that understand the importance and severity of this step in terms of their foreign relations. But the Erdogan regime in Turkey and the Tamim [bin Hamad Aal Thani regime] in Qatar are aware of nothing but their consistent hostility towards Egypt and the Egyptian people.
“The government must think outside the box when it contends with regimes that are concerned only with their own interests and with stabilizing their failed rule, [and who pursue these interests] over the corpses and remnants of the victims, who are felled every day, one after the other, by terrorist groups that receive assistance, support and military and civil financing from Doha and Ankara [for their activity] in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Egypt and additional Arab capitals. These countries suffer from the [effects of the] loathsome Qatari funds that are stained with the blood of the dead and the victims.
“The [Egyptian] government, represented by the foreign ministry, may have to seek a legal mechanism to bring the Turkish and Qatari governments before the International Criminal Court or before [other] European and American courts, on charges of supporting and assisting terror in the region, especially in Egypt. [This,] especially since we have copious proof and evidence to tie the two countries to the terror that the Muslim Brotherhood is currently waging in Egypt with their support. The hospitality that Qatar and Turkey extend to the leaders of this terrorist group [the MB] is evident and does not require [further] proof, nor does these leaders’ incitement to sow death and destruction in Egypt… All we need is to pick up the reins of initiative and take legal measures against Tamim and Erdogan, and the members of these two regimes, in all European countries, until each and every one of them is punished.
“What we need at this stage is bold action, especially since the policy of reconciliation has been ineffective and will remain ineffective against those who view terror as their ideal tool for toppling regimes and replacing them with regimes loyal to them and their money. Along with this boldness, we must seek experienced attorneys to pursue the Tamim and Erdogan regimes…”[6]
Endnotes:
[1] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No. 1045, “Deterioration In Turkey-Egypt Relations Due To Turkish PM Erdogan’s Opposition To Egyptian President Mursi’s Ouster,” December 19, 2013.
[2] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), February 4, 2015.
[3] Al-Ahram (Egypt), July 17, 2015.
[4] Al-Ahram (Egypt), July 6, 2015.
[5] Al-Ahram (Egypt), July 13, 2015.
[6] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi’ (Egypt), July 8, 2015.

Style Could Win Out Over Substance on Iran Nuclear Deal
Zachary Fillingham/Geopolitical Monitor/03 August/15
This is the final part of our series of editorials aimed at examining the new geopolitical reality in the Middle East following the signing of the Iran nuclear deal.
The Iran nuclear deal is surely one of the most discussed international developments since the Great Recession of 2009, and rightfully so. If implemented, it will alter the geopolitical fabric of the region – this much is beyond dispute. Less certain however are the questions of how it will change the region and whether these changes will be of any benefit to Washington.
I believe the deal is substantively sound, even displaying some realpolitik savvy by seeking a triangular flexibility between Saudi Arabia and Iran for the United States. Yet it’s the arena of perception where this deal struggles, both domestically and internationally, and perception might be all it takes to sink it.
First the substance. There were only two choices on how to approach Iran’s nuclear potential: diplomacy or war. War carried with it a slew of risks. For one the actual logistics of striking Iran’s facilities were daunting (if they weren’t, we might have seen an earlier Israeli strike). In the words of one analyst, it would be “strategically extraordinarily dangerous” for Israel to have launched an attack; less so for the United States, but still at massive cost and without any long-term guarantees. The important thing to note about the military option is that it would have further destroyed public opinion towards the United States (to the Revolution’s ultimate advantage), and the reprieve on Iran’s breakout time would only be temporary (much like it is in the final deal). Iran would inevitably re-build its capacity, and this time the endgame would be crystal clear: get a bomb before they bomb you.
So when the criticism of temporality is leveled towards the deal, we must keep it in mind that both war and diplomacy were temporary solutions. Diplomacy is unique however in that it carries a potential best-case scenario of a peaceful equilibrium that can be further extended in the future.
Another important factor is that the Middle East was already changing before the deal was reached, and these changes are simultaneously a threat to Tehran and a potential impetus for limited cooperated with its “Great Satan.” The Sunni-Shiite cleavage within Islam has been taking on a near-genocidal bent of late, and the widening footprint of Islamic State and other Wahhabi terrorist groups is deeply troubling to the Iranian authorities (keep in mind, Shiites are a minority of around 10% of the global Muslim population).
The deal should not be viewed as a new strategic partnership, or alliance, or any kind of close association between the United States and Iran. Rather it should be viewed simply as the harbinger of a basic level of bilateral cooperation to achieve specific, shared goals in the region, and by establishing this cooperation it’s possible that the United States might one day free itself from its strategic overreliance on Saudi Arabia. In the words of Brookings’ Jeremy Shapiro, pointed out in another editorial we carried last week, this is not about Washington getting into bed with Iran, but rather about it getting out of bed with Saudi Arabia. Herein lies one of the underlying thrusts of the Iran nuclear deal. It looks 20 years into the future and asks why US interests in the Middle East should be held prisoner to the Kingdom when there’s much more to be gained from a flexible triangular alignment.
The deal could trigger a nuclear arms race in the region, true, but so too could the alternatives of an Iranian ‘breakout’ or a pre-emptive strike. Here again the deal is forward-looking. Say military strikes had been the ultimate decision and Iran’s nuclear facilities were taken out of commission for ten years or so – is this a policy template that can be relied on in the future? Will it be up to the United States, largely isolated if it chose to strike, to spend blood and treasure punishing those who acquire technology that, as another one of our editorials pointed out, is as old as the rotary telephone? Because in doing so, Washington would only continue to make a nuclear deterrent all the more appealing to states wanting to protect themselves from Western air power. This is the danger of opting for the stick in nuclear non-proliferation – it may seem like an appealing idea at the time, but it can hurt you over the long run, and nuclear technology will always be a threat to international security; it isn’t going anywhere, so our thinking should be long-term. The Iran nuclear deal may come to be seen as a small step back in non-proliferation (largely dependent on whether the Saudis want to use the proliferation angle to “punish” their erstwhile ally in Washington), but it likely saved a much bigger step back in not opting for the military option.
As for whether or not the Iran nuclear deal will bring about a de-radicalization of Iranian politics, only time will tell. It is worth noting however that revolutionary movements in general are fires that burn brightest at their onset and then fizzle out over time; a war with the United States and Israel would make far better fodder for the fire than a slow and gradual reintegration into the global economy. Anyone who doubts this need only look to China, a state governed by the same revolutionary party that presided over the Cultural Revolution. Coincidentally, it’s also a state that shocked the world back in 1972 by choosing to work with its sworn enemy in the name of advancing common interests.
It’s All in the Eye of the Beholder
In its substance, the deal is sound, but its perception that could ultimately sink it. Sections of the US political establishment are still stuck in a hegemonic moment, believing the United States’ military power and messianic duty to be infinite – call it a Bush Doctrine hangover. The lessons of a rising China and two expensive and strategically short-sighted wars in the past decade seem to be lost on them. For these people, the ayatollah tweeting an image of Obama with a gun to his head is an unacceptable lack of deference to US power in the region. It makes them angry, and it makes them want to punish the regime, consequences be damned. Their view of geopolitics is backward-looking, to the post-Cold War period when the United States was the sole arbiter of security in the Middle East. This is a view that is increasingly detached from our present reality. And it’s not entirely surprising that this cohort would resist a deal that better situates the United States as a world power competing with other powers in a key region. Nearly all hegemonic transitions in the past have followed this pattern of old mindsets not quite keeping up with new realities, whether it be Rome or Pax Britannica, and historically speaking it never ends well for those who don’t adapt.
There’s also an interesting perceptual sleight at work with Iran’s status as a terrorist state. It is, of course, and few would deny it. But it’s not the only terrorist sponsor in the region, nor is it so qualitatively different from the others to warrant radically different treatment. Its comparative leper status might stem from the deep trauma of the Revolution, or its prolonged lack of a well-funded lobbying and PR presence in Washington, but last time I checked it wasn’t Shiite terrorism that was slowly infecting and radicalizing large swathes of the MENA region. That’s the work of puritanical Wahhabi ideology, a strain of Islam that traces back to the religious establishment in Saudi Arabia. This ideology has been actively exported from the Kingdom since the 1970s, and it has come to form the ideological backbone of such geopolitical nightmares as Islamic State, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda. Strange that it should emanate from an ally of the United States, let alone the one whose interests are being cited as a reason to vote down the Iran nuclear deal.
This is not meant to make apologies for one manifestation of terrorism over another – they’re all equally reprehensible. It’s merely to point out the perception gap that currently exists, where Iran is the one wolf that never bothered to put on its sheep’s clothing.
Then there’s President Obama, the politician who brought us this attempt at rapprochement. As I have argued above, the deal would start to strip the region of its normative signifiers, no more good guys and bad guys, and allow the United States to position itself to benefit from regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran – a realist goal if ever there was one. Yet because the deal is coming from President Obama – that peacenik, Nobel Prize-winning, red-line dabbler – it can be portrayed by its opponents as dangerous naivety and even defeatism. This is to be expected since the great diplomatic and political reversals of history have generally been the result of reaching across the ideological spectrum. Nixon could normalize relations with Communist China because he had a hawkish reputation; Obama might be foiled in a similar venture because he’s seen as a dove.
But all this pales next to the biggest perceptual trick of all, the myth that there’s some silver bullet of a policy response towards Iran’s nuclear program and the region as a whole. There’s not; all we have are imperfect options. And the Iran nuclear deal is just that – imperfect, but better than any of the alternatives.
Other editorials in this series:
Nuclear Deal and US Rebalancing: Not a Strategy for Peace
What the Iran Nuclear Deal Means for Israel and the Middle East
A New Balance of Power in the Middle East

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