llLCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

May 23/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.may23.16.htm

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Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006

Bible Quotations For Today

Teaching them to obey everything that I have commanded you. And remember, I am with you always, to the end of the age.’
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 28/16-20:"The eleven disciples went to Galilee, to the mountain to which Jesus had directed them. When they saw him, they worshipped him; but some doubted. And Jesus came and said to them, ‘All authority in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and teaching them to obey everything that I have commanded you. And remember, I am with you always, to the end of the age.’

O the depth of the riches and wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable are his judgements and how inscrutable his ways!
Letter to the Romans 11/25-36:"So that you may not claim to be wiser than you are, brothers and sisters, I want you to understand this mystery: a hardening has come upon part of Israel, until the full number of the Gentiles has come in. And so all Israel will be saved; as it is written, ‘Out of Zion will come the Deliverer; he will banish ungodliness from Jacob.’ ‘And this is my covenant with them, when I take away their sins.’ As regards the gospel they are enemies of God for your sake; but as regards election they are beloved, for the sake of their ancestors; for the gifts and the calling of God are irrevocable. Just as you were once disobedient to God but have now received mercy because of their disobedience, so they have now been disobedient in order that, by the mercy shown to you, they too may now receive mercy. For God has imprisoned all in disobedience so that he may be merciful to all. O the depth of the riches and wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable are his judgements and how inscrutable his ways! ‘For who has known the mind of the Lord? Or who has been his counsellor?’‘Or who has given a gift to him, to receive a gift in return?’For from him and through him and to him are all things. To him be the glory for ever. Amen."

Pope Francis's Tweet For Today
The feast of the Most Holy Trinity renews our mission of living in communion with God and all people on the model of the divine communion.
La fête de la Sainte-Trinité nous renouvelle la mission de vivre la communion avec Dieu et entre nous sur le modèle de la communion divine.
يجدّد لنا عيد الثالوث الأقدّس الرسالة بعيش الشركة مع الله وفيما بيننا على مثال الشركة الإلهيّة

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 22- 23/16

Hezbollah, the defender of Israel/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
How Iran Shapes Hezbollah/By Tony Badran/The Weekly Standard/May 22/16

This is not our Salafism/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
Egypt and the aversion of investors/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
Proud to be an Emirati in New York/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
Ya'alon leaves Defense Ministry: Netanyahu abandoned me/Ynet and Yedioth reporters/Ynetnews/May 22/16
We Are Leaving Political Islam/Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al Awsat/May 22/16
Easiest Way to Untie the Assad Knot: Say Loudly You Just did/Middle East Briefing/May 22/16
Iran Nuclear Deal: Impact on Asymmetric Warfare in the Middle East/Middle East Briefing/May 22/16
Russia and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Security/Middle East Briefing/May 22/16
Washington Debates a Not-So-Inevitable Policy Shift/Middle East Briefing/May 22/16
The Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916)/:Encyclopaedia Judaica.
The convenient scapegoat of the Sykes-Picot Agreement/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/May 22/16

Titles Latest Lebanese Related News published on May 22- 23/16

Hezbollah, the defender of Israel
How Iran Shapes Hezbollah
 Bassil Declares Victory of FPM Nominee in Jezzine By-election, Demands Early Polls
Hariri Says Confident of Victory in Sidon after Municipal Polls Held in South, Nabatieh
Low Turnout, Largely Calm Process as Municipal Polls Kick Off in South, Nabatieh
Parliamentary and Municipal Polls Held Simultaneously in Jezzine as Geagea Decries 'Unsatisfactory Turnout'
Mashnouq Postpones Municipal Elections in Southern Town of Kfar Seer
Fake Bomb Found in Sidon
3rd round of municipal polls ends in Marjeyoun amid uneventful atmosphere
Nabatieh elections take place in calm atmosphere, voting turnout reaches 45.5%
Interior Ministry: Two Bourgholiya candidates arrested for bribery
One person injured in brawl in Deir Antar
 

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 22- 23/16

Bangladesh: Islamic State murders doctor who “called to Christianity”/“ISIS claims responsibility for doctor’s murder in Bangladesh,
ISIS Attack Assyrian District in Syria, Five Killed
Afghan Taliban leader likely killed in US drone strike
Kerry: Taliban Leader Targeted by Airstrike Posed Threat to U.S. Troops, Peace
Netanyahu decides to keep Foreign Ministry, still hopes to bring Labor in to gov't
Atmosphere remains volatile in Iranian towns
ISIS calls for Ramadan attacks on the West
Iraqi army says preparing to retake ISIS-held Fallujah
Iraqi border crossing with Jordan to reopen
Obama urges tighter security after Iraq riots
US commander makes secret visit to Syria
Syria Rebels Give Truce Brokers 48 Hours to End Regime Assault
Russia in first raids on Aleppo since truce
Egypt sends submarine to hunt for EgyptAir jet
French prime minister visits Israel to push for peace plan
UN: Progress being made in Yemen peace talks
Yemen govt. forces kill 13 militants in former Qaeda bastion near Mukalla
Libyan, Yemeni and Saudi ISIS supporters added to US terror list
Turkey's transport minister elected as head of ruling AK Party at congress
South Korean premier meets with Saudi foreign minister
Azhar Imam to Urge Tolerance in Historic Pope Meeting

Links From Jihad Watch Site for May 22- 23/16
Canadian PM’s “Elbowgate” Scandal Reveals Racism of Leftist Feminists
UK: Muslim, 66, stabs four women in supermarket parking lot
Islamic State to India: “Either accept Islam, pay jizya or prepare to be slaughtered”
Saudi Arabia: Muslim mob screamed “Allahu akbar” as man was lashed in front of mosque for insulting Islam
Downed EgyptAir jetliner had been tagged with graffiti: “We will bring this plane down”
Oklahoma beheader says he is being held “captive to the disbelievers of Allah, the one and only God”
Hugh Fitzgerald: “Convenience Conversions” and an Inconvenient Truth
Russia: Imam gets three years prison, had weapons and explosives in mosque
Islamic State: “Only one way for US to gain victory and that is by taking the Quran out of the hearts of Muslims”
Raymond Ibrahim on CBN News: EgyptAir Plane Crash
Media darling Muslim selfie girl loves Hitler, hates Jews
Bangladesh: Islamic State murders doctor who “called to Christianity”

Latest Lebanese Related News published on May 22- 23/16

Hezbollah, the defender of Israel
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/05/22/turki-al-dakhilal-arabiya-hezbollah-the-defender-of-israel/
When former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri was assassinated, Hezbollah narrated strange theories calling Israel as the main culprit behind the crime. We remember Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah’s famous speech in which he showed maps and videos to back up the party’s theories. Whatever he showed, however, contradicted the cause and the sequence of events. Nasrallah wanted to exonerate his party and the Syrian regime from the responsibility and wanted to distract people. He was attempting to end the controversy surrounding the car used in the assassination, which international investigator Detlev Mehlis said came from Beirut’s Dahiyeh. However, when it has come to the assassination of some of its commanders, Hezbollah exonerates Israel. During his recent appearance on television, Nasrallah insisted that Mustafa Badreddine was the victim of what he called “takfiri” groups. He excluded Israel from this whole narrative on Badreddine’s assassination. Following the assassination of Hariri, Hezbollah always asked the question: “Who benefits from killing Hariri?” However when it comes to Badreddine, it’s asking another question: “Who is the enemy?”
The militias that exonerate Israel, or hold it responsible based on their own circumstances and interests, are more dangerous than Israel
Double standards?
Hezbollah’s militia is fighting the Syrian people and the moderate opposition. It is fighting a battle against the rights of the Syrian people. However, what is strange is that Hezbollah exonerates Israel from Badreddine’s murder but insists on involving it in the assassination of Hariri. This exposes its logic as conveyed via the story of Abu Adas and other futile media fabrications. Days have gone by since the indictment was issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. People learnt that Hezbollah, its commanders and the Syrian regime were responsible for the murder of political figures just because they disagreed with them. But fate has its ways and Hezbollah is now drinking from the same cup as Gebran Tueni, Samir Kassir and Rafiq Hariri. What is more dangerous than Israel are the militias who exonerate Israel or hold it responsible based on circumstances and interests.

How Iran Shapes Hezbollah
By Tony Badran/The Weekly Standard/May 22/16
http://www.weeklystandard.com/how-iran-shapes-hezbollah/article/2002495#.V0HaPcPsSbs.twitter
Following the mysterious death of Hezbollah senior military commander Mustafa Badreddine in Syria last week, speculation continues to swirl over the identity of his possible successor. The prevailing theory holds that this role will fall to Ibrahim Aqil and/or Fuad Shukr, ranking members of Hezbollah’s military council and veterans of the group and its security apparatus. However, a report in the London-based Asharq al-Awsat on Tuesday, citing anonymous Lebanese sources, claimed that Hezbollah had decided to name Mustafa Mughniyeh, the son of its former military commander, Imad Mughniyeh, as Badreddine's replacement.
Mustafa's brother Jihad was killed last year in an Israeli strike while in a convoy with senior Iranian and Hezbollah officials in Quneitra. Unlike Jihad, who was frequently seen in public and in photographs, little is known about Mustafa.
According to Israeli researcher Ronen Solomon, Mustafa was close to his recently departed uncle, Mustafa Badreddine, and may have been involved in his security detail (Imad Mughniyeh and his brother at one point handled security for the late Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah). Elsewhere in the Arabic press, it was alleged that Mustafa Mughniyeh had been assigned the Golan Heights front following his brother's demise. This decision was supposedly made by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force.
The mention of Soleimani in this context is curious. The notorious Iranian general had seemingly taken the late Jihad Mughniyeh under his wing. Jihad, who had been sent to Iran, was seen glued to Soleimani at the funeral of the general's mother in 2013. A report in the state-run Fars News at the time described Soleimani's displays of affection toward the young man, and noted that Jihad stood "like a son" next to Soleimani. Following Jihad's assassination, the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei released photos of Jihad meeting and embracing Khamenei.
The Mughniyeh family's history with the Iranians goes back to the earliest days, even before the victory of the Islamic revolution. When Imad Mughniyeh was himself a teen in Lebanon, he was recruited by the revolutionaries who would later seize power in Iran and form the IRGC. The Iranians have put up a gravestone for Mughniyeh in Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery and issued a stamp commemorating him. It is therefore easy to understand why the Iranian leadership played up the image of young Jihad.
Although Jihad got all the publicity, he wasn't the only son of the founding Hezbollah commanders to receive Soleimani's attention. When Hassan Laqqis, another senior commander from the first generation of Hezbollah cadres, was killed outside his Beirut apartment in 2013, it came out that his son, Hussein, was also a possible subject of Iranian interest. He, too, went to Iran, where a ceremony was held for his fallen father (who used to be an aide to Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan, back when he led the IRGC in Lebanon), and he also posed for pictures with Soleimani.
Lastly, the pro-Hezbollah media outfit Al Akhbar claimed, in a rather hagiographic report on Monday, that when Soleimani paid his respects to the Badreddine family in their Beirut home, he allegedly told Badreddine's son, Ali, "you will follow your father's path and become, like him, a model to your generation and to all young men."
Now, Ali is still a boy, and this story could simply be an addition to Hezbollah's lore of martyrology. However, leaving aside that these are the sons of the first generation of Hezbollah commanders who have become legends to the party faithful, the idea of the Iranians directly cultivating young cadres is hardly fanciful or even new. After all, Jihad Mughniyeh was 16 years old when his father was killed and he was thrust into the limelight. And in fact his father Imad himself was in his teens when he was working with the Iranians in the late 1970's. The Iranians cultivated him into the closest and most loyal asset.
The case of Hassan Nasrallah is also instructive in how the Iranians have directly shaped the leadership of Hezbollah. In 1989, Nasrallah left Lebanon for Iran, where Ali Akbar Mohtashami, the former Iranian ambassador to Syria and a critical figure in establishing Hezbollah, brought the 29-year old Nasrallah to Khamenei, who took him in as a protégé. Later that same year, Khamenei succeeded Ruhollah Khomeini as Supreme Leader. And three years later, when Hezbollah's then-secretary general Abbas Musawi was assassinated, Nasrallah was named as the new chief, bypassing older members.

Bassil Declares Victory of FPM Nominee in Jezzine By-election, Demands Early Polls
Naharnet/May 22/16/Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil announced Sunday evening that the candidate fielded by the FPM, Amal Abou Zeid, had won the parliamentary by-election that was held in the southern city of Jezzine to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Helou. “What is happening in Jezzine is much greater than municipal polls. We are here to say that our hand is extended to everyone and that we emerged victorious thanks to Jezzine's sons, our FPM supporters and the rest of the parties and families,” said Bassil from Jezzine.
Noting that Jezzine's by-election proves that the extension of the parliament's term was “a big lie,” Bassil demanded “early parliamentary elections under a new electoral law.”
“But they don't want that, because the results will be similar to what happened in Jezzine today,” he added. “Jezzine will not return to occupation as long as the resistance exists and it will not return to political captivity as long as there is a Free Patriotic Movement,” Bassil pledged referring to Israel's 1978-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon and the political influence that Speaker Nabih Berri has in the Jezzine district. “This is the land of (FPM founder) General Michel Aoun where he can never be defeated,” Bassil boasted, congratulating Abou Zeid on his declared win. The parliamentary by-election was held in Jezzine in parallel with municipal and mayoral elections that were held Sunday in the district and entire south Lebanon. Abou Zeid was nominated by the FPM and enjoyed key support from the Lebanese Forces, which is allied with the FPM in the municipal polls. His main competitor was Ibrahim Azar, the son of ex-MP Samir Azar who was close to Speaker Nabih Berri. Azar, who enjoyed the support of some families, was expected to garner votes from Berri's AMAL Movement although it did not officially endorse him. According to early results, Abou Zeid was leading with 9,481 votes while Azar was running second with 4,963 votes. The FPM voiced calls on Sunday and said: “We urge the people of Jezzine to participate in the by-election and vote in favor of Abou Zeid.” In the afternoon, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea lamented what he described as the “unsatisfactory voter turnout in the city of Jezzine,” urging residents to “head to polling stations despite the traffic condition at the al-Awwali River and other obstacles.”Voter turnout reached 53% in the Jezzine district, according the Interior Ministry. Lebanon's municipal elections kicked off first in the capital Beirut and in Baalbek-al-Hermel on May 8. They were followed by polls in Mount Lebanon that were held on May 15. May 29 will witness the last round which will be held in the North and Akkar.

Hariri Says Confident of Victory in Sidon after Municipal Polls Held in South, Nabatieh
Naharnet/May 22/16/The third round of Lebanon's municipal elections was held on Sunday in the South and Nabatieh governorates following similar polls that were held earlier in Beirut, Baalbek-al-Hermel and Mount Lebanon.
People stood in queues outside polling stations to cast their ballots and after the polls closed Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq announced that voter turnout was 44% in Sidon city, 57.5% in Sidon's villages, 53% in Jezzine, 42.5% in Bint Jbeil, 47% in Tyre, 43.2% in Marjeyoun, 47% in Hasbaya and 49% in Nabatiyeh.
Speaking from the city of Sidon in the evening, al-Mustaqbal leader ex-PM Saad Hariri announced that the Mustaqbal-led list was leading by two thirds of the vote.
“We congratulate Sidon... and we are confident that our list that is led by Mohammed al-Saudi will win,” he said.
“The new municipality will work for Sidon's future,” he added.
Three lists competed in the city, including one backed by al-Mustaqbal movement and headed by incumbent municipal chief Mohammed al-Saudi.
Al-Saudi's list was also backed by al-Jamaa al-Islamiya and former municipal chief Abdul Rahman al-Bizri.
The Mustaqbal-led coalition faced two other lists in the southern city -- one headed by Bilal Shaaban and backed by the Popular Nasserite Organization of ex-MP Osama Saad, and another headed by former al-Jamaa al-Islamiya senior official Ali Sheikh Ammar and backed by Islamists and supporters of imprisoned salafist cleric Ahmed al-Assir.
After casting his ballot at a school in the city, al-Saudi said: “The election process is going well. I promise the people of Sidon that the city will be much better in the next six years."
The Secretary General of Mustaqbal, Ahmed Hariri, hailed al-Saudi and said after voting: “We believe that he preserves the rights of Sidon.”
For his part, Head of the Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Saniora assured that participation in the polls “is a duty and citizens must choose whoever they want to express their opinion.”
Al-Jadeed television meanwhile reported that a list backed by the Lebanese Communist Party, MP Anwar al-Khalil and several families had won against a list backed by Hizbullah and al-Ahbash in the border town of Kfarshouba.
Army troops and security forces had deployed heavily in the areas of the South to preserve peace and ensure that the election process goes smoothly.
The electoral process was however marred by two security incidents in the Sidon region.
In Haret Saida, where Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement have a strong presence, a quarrel erupted between supporters of the list they back and others who support the incumbent municipal chief, which prompted a 15-minute suspension of the electoral process.
Later on Sunday, state-run National News Agency said a dispute erupted at a polling station in Sidon's al-Arbaeen neighborhood "after a citizen was spotted paying an electoral bribe."
In the city of Jezzine, the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement formed a list called “We are for Jezzine”. The rival list was backed by major families from the city families and the Kataeb Party has reportedly told its supporters that they are free in their electoral choice.
The LF and the FPM support another municipal list in the town of Maghdouche, south of Sidon, under the slogan “Maghdouche Gathers Us”. The list was headed by Ghazi Ayyoub.
It faced a list headed by the current municipal chief, George Younan, and supported by MP Michel Moussa, who is close to Speaker Nabih Berri.
Besides the municipal elections, Jezzine witnessed Sunday parliamentary by-elections aimed at filling the seat left vacant by the death of Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Helou, who passed away in 2014. FPM chief Jebran Bassil announced in the evening that the movement's candidate, Amal Abou Zeid, had won the by-election.
Joint lists between the AMAL movement and Hizbullah were formed in several areas in the South and Nabatieh, where they faced moderate competition by family lists and secular parties.
The province of Tyre includes 63 municipalities of which 18 have won uncontested. Lists dubbed “Development and Loyalty Lists” were formed by AMAL and Hizbullah and ran against lists formed by the Lebanese Communist Party, civil society activists and families.
Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said that the polling process was halted for half an hour at noon in the town of Jwaya, when a female Syrian refugee tried to cast her vote in favor of the list competing that of Development and Loyalty.
In Bint Jbeil district, which includes 36 municipalities, eight won uncontested as lists were formed to compete against the “Development and Loyalty Lists.”
MP Hassan Fadlallah said after casting his ballot in the town of Ainata, a stronghold of Hizbullah: “I call for broad participation throughout the south and commitment to the electoral lists.”
In the southern district of Hasbaya, several villages including al-Habbarieh, Kfar Shuba and Kfar Hmam witnessed fierce electoral battles between the Communist Party on one side and al-Jamaa al-Islamiya and the al-Mustaqbal Movement on the other.
According to media reports, security forces busted a candidate "paying an electoral bribe" to a voter in the Hasbaya town of al-Meri.
Voice of Lebanon Radio (100.5) said a polling station in the Nabatieh town of al-Kfour was closed after the eruption of a dispute between supporters of AMAL and Hizbullah.
The municipal polls first kicked off in the capital Beirut and the Bekaa Valley on May 8. They were followed by elections in Mount Lebanon on May 15.
The last round will be held on May 29 in the North.

Low Turnout, Largely Calm Process as Municipal Polls Kick Off in South, Nabatieh
Naharnet/May 22/16/ The third round of Lebanon's municipal elections kicked off on Sunday in the South and Nabatieh governorates following similar polls that were held earlier in Beirut, Baalbek-al-Hermel and Mount Lebanon.
Army troops and security forces deployed heavily in the areas to preserve peace and ensure that the election process goes smoothly.
The electoral process was however marred by two security incidents in the Sidon region.
In Haret Saida, where Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement have a strong presence, a quarrel erupted between supporters of the list they back and others who support the incumbent municipal chief, which prompted a 15-minute suspension of the electoral process.
Later on Sunday, state-run National News Agency said a dispute erupted at a polling station in Sidon's al-Arbaeen neighborhood "after a citizen was spotted paying an electoral bribe."
People stood in line outside the polling stations to cast their ballots, as reports said that the voter turnout was relatively good in the morning hours. Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq said at noon that the voter turnout was considered "average" and that it was expected to rise in the afternoon.
But at 5:00 pm, two hours before the closure of polls, voter turnout was relatively low in the two governorates, with 34% in Sidon city, 48% in Sidon's villages, 49% in Jezzine, 32% in Bint Jbeil, 35% in Tyre, 38% in Marjeyoun, 39% in Hasbaya and 41% in Nabatiyeh.
In the city of Sidon, three lists were competing, including one backed by al-Mustaqbal movement and headed by current municipal chief Mohammed al-Saudi.
Al-Saudi, who is seeking a second term, is also backed by al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, and former municipal chief Abdul Rahman al-Bizri.
He is facing two other lists in the southern city -- one headed by Bilal Shaaban and backed by the Popular Nasserite Organization of ex-MP Osama Saad, and another headed by former al-Jamaa al-Islamiya senior official Ali Sheikh Ammar and backed by Islamists and supporters of imprisoned salafist cleric Ahmed al-Assir.
After casting his ballot at a school in the city, al-Saudi said: “The election process is going well. I promise the people of Sidon that the city will be much better in the next six years."The Secretary General of Mustaqbal, Ahmed Hariri, hailed al-Saudi and said after voting: “We believe that he preserves the rights of Sidon.”For his part, Head of the Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Saniora assured that participation in the polls “is a duty and citizens must choose whoever they want to express their opinion.”
In the city of Jezzine, the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement formed a list called “We are for Jezzine”. The rival list is backed by major families from the city families and the Kataeb Party has reportedly told its supporters that they are free in their electoral choice.The LF and the FPM support another municipal list in the town of Maghdouche, south of Sidon, under the slogan “Maghdouche Gathers Us”. The list is headed by Ghazi Ayyoub. It faces a list headed by the current municipal chief, George Younan, and supported by MP Michel Moussa, who is close to Speaker Nabih Berri.
Besides the municipal elections, Jezzine witnesses today parliamentary by-elections aimed at filling the seat left vacant by the death of Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Helou, who passed away in 2014. Joint lists between the AMAL movement and Hizbullah have been formed in several areas in the South and Nabatieh, where they face moderate competition by family lists and secular parties.
The province of Tyre includes 63 municipalities of which 18 have won uncontested. Lists dubbed “Development and Loyalty Lists” have been formed by AMAL and Hizbullah and were competing against lists formed by the Lebanese Communist Party, civil society activists and families.
Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said that the polling process was halted for half an hour at noon in the town of Jwaya, when a female Syrian refugee tried to cast her vote in favor of the list competing that of Development and Loyalty.
In Bint Jbeil district, which includes 36 municipalities, eight have won uncontested while the rest compete against the “Development and Loyalty Lists.”
MP Hassan Fadlallah said after casting his ballot in the town of Ainata, a stronghold of Hizbullah: “I call for broad participation throughout the south and commitment to the electoral lists.”
In the southern district of Hasbaya, several villages including al-Habbarieh, Kfar Shuba and Kfar Hmam witness fierce electoral battles between the Communist Party on one side and al-Jamaa al-Islamiya and the al-Mustaqbal Movement on the other.
According to media reports, security forces busted a candidate "paying an electoral bribe" to a voter in the Hasbaya town of al-Meri.
Voice of Lebanon Radio (100.5) said a polling station in the Nabatieh town of al-Kfour was closed after the eruption of a dispute between supporters of AMAL and Hizbullah.
The municipal polls first kicked off in the capital Beirut and the Bekaa Valley on May 8. They were followed by elections in Mount Lebanon on May 15.
The last round will be held on May 29 in the North.

Parliamentary and Municipal Polls Held Simultaneously in Jezzine as Geagea Decries 'Unsatisfactory Turnout'
Naharnet/May 22/16/Parliamentary by-elections aimed at filling the vacant post of late Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Helou were held Sunday in the southern city of Jezzine, in parallel with municipal and mayoral elections. The by-election is aimed at filling the seat left vacant after Helou passed away in 2014. The polls are expected to witness a battle between several candidates, some of whom enjoy the support of the main Christian parties of the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Forces, and Kataeb. Seven candidates will be running for the parliamentary post -- Michel Elias al-Helou, Jad Rizk, Patrick Rizkallah, Amal Abou Zeid, Ibrahim Azar, Kamil Serhal, and Salah Jebran. Abou Zeid was nominated by the FPM and is also backed by the Lebanese Forces and and the Kataeb Party.The FPM voiced calls on Sunday and said: “We urge the people of Jezzine to participate in the by-election and vote in favor of Abou Zeid.” Abou Zeid's main competitor is Ibrahim Azar, the son of ex-MP Samir Azar who was close to Speaker Nabih Berri. Azar, who enjoys the support of some families, is also expected to garner votes from Berri's AMAL Movement although it has not officially endorsed him. In the afternoon, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea lamented what he described as the “unsatisfactory voter turnout in the city of Jezzine,” urging residents to “head to polling stations despite the traffic condition at the al-Awwali River and other obstacles.” At 5:00 pm, voter turnout stood at 49% in the Jezzine district, according the Interior Ministry.Lebanon's municipal elections kicked off first in the capital Beirut and in Baalbek-al-Hermel on May 8. They were followed by polls in Mount Lebanon that were held on May 15. May 29 will witness the last round which will be held in the North and Akkar.

Mashnouq Postpones Municipal Elections in Southern Town of Kfar Seer
Naharnet/May 22/16/Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq announced on Sunday that the municipal elections in the town of Kfar Seer in the governorate of Nabatieh, have been postponed. “We have postponed the elections in Kfar Seer because the majority of the candidates have withdrawn their nominations,” stated Mashnouq. Assessing Sunday's election process, Mashnouq described it as excellent, he said “The conditions are excellent so far in all the polling stations and in all regions,” but did not rule out some attempts to bribe voters. “The bribery attempts (to win votes) in the south are very limited. There is only one incident that has been recorded,” he remarked. Municipal elections in the South and Nabatieh kicked off on Sunday. The first round started in Beirut and Baalbek-al-Hermel on May 8. The second round was held in Mount Lebanon on May 15. The last round will be held in the North and Akkar on May 29.

Fake Bomb Found in Sidon
Naharnet/May 22/16/Police found on Sunday a fake bomb that was planted in a school in the southern city of Sidon, the state-run National News Agency reported.
The bomb was found in the Maarouf Saad Public School, and was wrapped with paper gift and tied to a timer clock. The army managed to dismantle and transport it.

3rd round of municipal polls ends in Marjeyoun amid uneventful atmosphere
Sun 22 May 2016/NNA - Ballot boxes in the district of Marjeyoun in Nabatieh closed at 7:00 pm on Sunday, winding up the third round of municipal and mayoral elections in southern the country. Strict security measures were undertaken at the behest of the Ministry of Interior, mainly at the poll stations.Boxes opened as of early morning, and primary results indicated that 39% of registered electors have voted.Observing the electoral process, LADE said that one bribe was documented, and that investigations were still underway in Qolayha, Taibeh, and Marjeyoun.In comments on the polls, Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil hailed, in remarks to reporters while casting ballot in his town Khiyam, the atmosphere of "democracy and free competition."

Nabatieh elections take place in calm atmosphere, voting turnout reaches 45.5%
Sun 22 May 2016/Mashnouk: Very minimal flaws, limited complaints
NNA - The third round of municipal and mukhtar elections in the province of Nabatieh ended at 7:00 p.m. on Sunday, with voting turnout reaching 45.5 % amidst a calm atmosphere and controlled security situation. Polling stations opened their doors at 7:00 a.m. to 140,988 voters to elect 37 municipal councils with 994 members and 296 mukhtars. Zebdine Municipality won uncontested, in addition to 4 mukhtars and 32 optional members. Interior and Municipality Minister Nuhad el-Mashnouk referred to an "average turnout of voters throughout the day, amidst security measures that ensured a smooth flow of elections in a calm and tranquil atmosphere." "Flaws were much less in comparison to the first and second round of elections," said Machnouk, adding that "complaints were also limited."

Interior Ministry: Two Bourgholiya candidates arrested for bribery
Sun 22 May 2016/NNA - The media bureau of the Interior and Municipalities Ministry issued on Sunday evening the following statement: "The Central Chamber of Operations at the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities apprehended and referred to investigation two candidates from the same list in Bourgholiya on charges of bribery. The men were taken to Abassiya precinct in Tyre Caza. The Chamber also caught permits for delegates without names in Touleen-Marj Ayoun Caza. The file was sent to Tibneen for further investigation under specialized judiciary. It is to be noted that the Attorney General for Appeals in the South continues to investigate the issue of the audio recording concerning bribery in the town of Aaqtneet."

Interior Ministry: Voters' turnout in South caza, Nabatieh hits 43% till 18.00 p.m.
Sun 22 May 2016/NNA - The Interior Ministry issued on Sunday the following statement: "Voters' turnout has reached in the South caza and Nabatieh 43% till 18.00 p.m. and is distributed as follows:
Sidon district: 36%
Sidon district villages: 52%
Jezzine district: 51%
Bint Jbeil district: 33%
Tyre district: 45%
Merjeyoun district: 39%
Hasbaya district: 43%
Nabatieh district: 45.5 %."

One person injured in brawl in Deir Antar
Mon 23 May 2016/NNA - One citizen named Ali Youssef Hojeij got wounded in a personal brawl that triggered fire shooting in the southern town of Deir Antar in Bint Jbeil caza in the wake of mukthtar elections, NNA reporter said on Sunday. Instantly, the Lebanese army intervened and contained said incident, with situation going back to normal in town.

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 22- 23/16

Bangladesh: Islamic State murders doctor who “called to Christianity”/“ISIS claims responsibility for doctor’s murder in Bangladesh,
 PTI, May 22/ The ISIS Saturday claimed responsibility for the killing of a homoeopathic doctor in western Bangladesh, as the Muslim-majority country reels under a series of brutal murders of secular activists and minorities by Islamists. “Fighters from the Islamic State assassinated a doctor who called to Christianity in Kushtia, western Bangladesh,” the ISIS-affiliated Amaq news agency said in a brief Arabic message, according to SITE Intelligence Group. 58-year-old doctor Sanaur Rahman was riding home on his motorbike alongwith Saifuzzaman, assistant professor of Bangla literature at Islami University, when they were attacked by machete-wielding militants in Kushtia town Friday. Rahman was hacked to death while Zaman was critically wounded in the attack. He was flown to Dhaka for treatment. A senior Home Ministry official rejected the claim “in the name of ISIS”, saying “the home grown militants visibly are repeatedly trying to prove their links with international outfits like IS or al Qaeda”.“Our investigations found no link of any international group to the (recent) incidents in Bangladesh”, additional home secretary Rahmatul Munim told reporters. Kushtia police said both Rahman and his friend were fans of a mystical musical tradition known as Baul, which the Islamists consider as “un-Islamic”. According to residents in the neighbourhood, Rahman was a popular doctor as he used to treat and offer medicine to poor people free of cost running a free Friday clinic.“We are investigating possible militant links to the attack but we also kept in mind if it was outcome of any personal enmity,” a local police officer said. Rahman was the latest victim of suspected Islamists who have killed several liberal and secular activists and religious minorities in Bangladesh in recent months….
 

ISIS Attack Assyrian District in Syria, Five Killed
Posted 2016-05-22/Three Assyrians killed by ISIS attacks in al-Wusta district of Qamishle, Syria. From left to right: George Lahdo, Karim Simon and Toma Khosho. ( AINA)(AINA) -- An attack by ISIS in the al-Wusta district of Qamishle, Syria killed at least five persons, three of them Assyrians, and injured more than a dozen. This is the third time al-Wusta, inhabited almost exclusively by Assyrians, has been attacked
ISIS terrorist stormed the area near Miami restaurant, shouting "Alahu Akbar" (God is great) and "ISIS is here to stay" while firing shots with handguns and lobbing grenades. Assyrian Gozarto Protection Forces (GPF) shot and killed two suicide bombers before they could detonate their suicide belts. One suicide bomber was able to detonate his belt near Miami restaurant and Dominos Pizza.
Gulf Cooperation Council
 

Afghan Taliban leader likely killed in US drone strike
Reuters/Ynetnews/Published:05.22.16/Israel News
Mullah Akhtar Mansour reportedly killed in air strike in remote area just inside Pakistani border; strike underscores belief among US commanders the Taliban has grown increasingly close to al-Qaeda under Mansour's leadership.

WASHINGTON/KABUL - The United States carried out an air strike on the leader of the Afghan Taliban, probably killing him in a remote area just inside the Pakistan border in an operation likely to sink any immediate prospect for peace talks.
If confirmed, the death of Mullah Akhtar Mansour may open up a battle for succession and deepen fractures that emerged in the insurgent movement after the death of its founder Mullah Mohammad Omar was confirmed last year, more than two years after he died. Saturday's mission, which US officials said was authorized by President Barack Obama and included multiple drones, showed the United States was prepared to go after the Taliban leadership in Pakistan, which the Western-backed government in Kabul has repeatedly accused of sheltering the insurgents.
It also underscored the belief among US commanders that under Mansour's leadership, the Taliban have grown increasing close to militant groups like al-Qaeda, posing a direct threat to US security. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook confirmed a strike targeting Mansour near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region but declined to speculate on his fate. "We are still assessing the results of the strike and will provide more information as it becomes available," Cook said. The Taliban have made no official statement but two commanders close to Mansour denied he was dead. Nevertheless, attention has focused on Mansour's deputy, Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of a notorious network blamed for most of the recent high profile suicide attacks in Kabul.
"Based purely on matters of hierarchy, he would be the favorite to succeed Mansour," said Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the Woodrow Wilson Institute, a Washington-based think tank. "But when it comes to the Taliban, nothing is clear cut and meritocracy is never the norm," he said.
Haqqani, appointed as number two after Mansour assumed control of the Taliban leadership last year, has generally been seen as an opponent of negotiations and if he does take over, prospects of negotiations are likely to recede further.
Efforts to broker a new series of talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban had already stalled following a suicide attack in Kabul last month that killed 64 people and prompted President Ashraf Ghani to prioritize military operations over negotiations.
Unanswered questions
The Afghan government said it had been informed by Washington of the drone strike and Mansour's probable killing. Ghani's office said if his death was confirmed, Taliban who wanted to end bloodshed should return from "alien soil" and join peace efforts.
The US drones targeted Mansour and another combatant as they rode in a vehicle in a remote area of Pakistan's Baluchistan province, southwest of the town of Ahmad Wal, another US official said. Residents of the area close to the Afghan border, said some people had heard a blast but the cause was not clear. The strike by US special operations forces operating the drones took place at about 6am EDT (10am GMT), the US official said. That would have been 3pm on Saturday in Pakistan. The Pakistani military did not respond to requests for comment but an intelligence official who declined be identified said there had been a strike in the area but he did not know the target and it happened on the Afghan side of the border. Cook called Mansour "an obstacle to peace and reconciliation between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban" and said he was involved in planning attacks that threatened US and Afghan forces. One of the Taliban commanders who dismissed the report of Mansour's killing said it had nevertheless spread alarm through Taliban ranks. "This rumor has created panic among our followers across Afghanistan and Pakistan and they are anxiously waiting to hear the truth. We're telling them to ignore it but they're still worried," the senor Taliban member said by telephone. In December, Mansour was reportedly wounded and possibly killed in a shootout at the house of an insurgent leader near Quetta in Pakistan. The Taliban eventually released an audio recording, purportedly from Mansour, to dispel the reports. A US intelligence analyst said Mansour had been in a power struggle with Mullah Mohammad Rasoul, whose deputy, Mullah Dadullah, was killed late last year in what officials think was a fight with Mansour's more hard-line faction. But the US official cautioned against concluding that the shakeup might diminish the Taliban's broader sense of strength. "The Taliban have made considerable progress in Helmand (province) and elsewhere so it's hard to see much incentive for them to start compromising now, with the fighting just heating up again," the official said. The new US commander in Afghanistan is reviewing US strategy, including whether broader powers are needed to target insurgents and whether to proceed with plans to reduce the number of US forces.

Kerry: Taliban Leader Targeted by Airstrike Posed Threat to U.S. Troops, Peace
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 22/16/Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour was targeted by U.S. drone strikes because he posed an "threat" to U.S. troops, Afghan civilians and peace talks, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday on a visit to Myanmar. The U.S. said Saturday's strikes hit a vehicle carrying Mansour and a second passenger in Pakistan's remote southwestern province of Balochistan bordering Afghanistan. Speaking to reporters in the Myanmar capital Naypyidaw Kerry outlined the reasons for the strikes. "Mansour posed... an imminent threat to U.S. personnel, Afghan civilians and Afghan security forces," he told reporters, adding "he was also directly opposed to peace negotiations." The U.S. "has long maintained that an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned reconciliation process is the surest way to ensure peace... peace is what we want, Mansour was a threat to that," Kerry added. The Taliban have so far not commented on the American strike or confirmed Mansour's death. He had been appointed leader last July.The drone attack came just days after U.S., Chinese, Pakistani and Afghan officials held a fresh round of talks in Islamabad aimed at restarting the stalled peace process between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

Netanyahu decides to keep Foreign Ministry, still hopes to bring Labor in to gov't
Itamar Eichner, Yuval Karni, Moran Azulay/Ynetnews/ While Netanyahu holds onto the prestigious portfolio as a bargaining chip, Labor officials declare the door has closed on coalition negotiations. Despite the fact talks to form a unity government with the Labor party failed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to keep the foreign affairs portfolio under his authority as he believes Isaac Herzog's party can still be brought into the fold. "I'm keeping the portfolios as another option to expand the government further and bring in the Labor party later on," he told Likud ministers on Sunday morning.
In addition to the Foreign Ministry, Netanyahu is also holding onto the Communications Ministry, the Economy Ministry and the Regional Cooperation Ministry—all of which have been operating without a minister for months on end. He also noted to Likud ministers that efforts to bring Labor into the government would include "not just portfolios, but also diplomatic moves." But sources close to Herzog said he has no intention of joining the government. "The prime minister has made his decision. We've left that chapter behind us," one close associate said.
Senior Labor MKs echoed these sentiments on Sunday. "There's no chance we'll join (the government). The curtains have closed, the deadline has passed, and now I hope we can return to being a combative opposition for the public who voted for us," said MK Eitan Cabel. Following the resignation of Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, an unprecedented situation emerged in which none of the Likud party's ministers is holding any of the three top portfolios, despite being the largest faction in the Knesset with 30 seats of out 120. Netanyahu is holding onto foreign affairs, while the defense portfolio went to Yisrael Beytenu's Avigdor Lieberman and the Finance Ministry has gone to Kulanu's Moshe Kahlon. Another belief is that the prime minister reportedly decided not to hand out the foreign affairs portfolio at present because he wants to avoid confrontation with two of the party's senior ministers, Transportation and Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz and Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan, who are both claiming Netanyahu promised the post to them. Katz has a written promise to receive one of the three top portfolios if the circumstances allow it. Erdan, meanwhile, said in private conversations that he received a verbal promise to receive the foreign affairs portfolio. But they're not the only ones vying for the Foreign Ministry. Also looking for an upgrade are Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, considered one of Netanyahu's closest allies, and Education Minister Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), who claimed in the past that the ministry had been promised to him, but said he will concede the position and remain in the Education Ministry. It is possible Bennett decided to stick to the Education Ministry so fellow Bayit Yehudi member Ayelet Shaked could remain in the Justice Ministry.

Atmosphere remains volatile in Iranian towns
Sunday, 22 May 2016/NCRI – The social atmosphere in Iranian towns remains volatile. The regime continues its suppressive policies while students and workers have held new protests. Babol - Students of Babol Noshirvani University of Technology continue sit-in
Students of Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, northern Iran, are continuing a week-long sit-in in protest to the university management. The students demand the resignation of the university’s head of student affairs. The protesters have vowed to continue until their demand is met.
Mehran – Hundreds of market workers go on strike
On Wednesday, May 18, the workers of the border market in Mehran, western, Iran, stopped working and began a strike in protest to the policies of the contracting company based at the Mehran border customs office. The protesting workers declared that the new circular issued by this company deducts 30 percent of workers’ income. The regime’s personnel have failed thus far to persuade workers to go back to work and the strike is continuing by hundreds of workers.
Shiraz - Women arrested by so-called Morality Police
Also on Wednesday, the repressive forces of the so-called Morality Police (Gasht-e-Ershad) in Shiraz, southern Iran, arrested a number of women and girls on the bogus charge of being improperly veiled. The detained women have received heavy fines over their choice of attire.
Mahabad - Retirement home raided by regime’s agents
On Wednesday, at 3 pm, a retirement home in Mahabad, north-west Iran, was raided by the regime’s suppressive plainclothes agents.

ISIS calls for Ramadan attacks on the West
Reuters Sunday, 22 May 2016/A new message purporting to come from an ISIS spokesman called on followers to launch attacks on the United States and Europe during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which begins in early June. "Ramadan, the month of conquest and jihad. Get prepared, be ready ... to make it a month of calamity everywhere for the non-believers ... especially for the fighters and supporters of the caliphate in Europe and America," said the message, suggesting attacks on military and civilian targets. The authenticity of the audio clip, purporting to be from Abu Muhammad al-Adnani and distributed on Saturday by Twitter accounts that usually publish ISIS statements, could not be verified. "The smallest action you do in their heartland is better and more enduring to us than what you would if you were with us. If one of you hoped to reach the Islamic State, we wish we were in your place to punish the Crusaders day and night," Adnani said.The authenticity of the audio clip, purporting to be from Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, could not be verified. (Reuters) The militant group, which seeks to establish a caliphate across the Middle East and beyond, has claimed deadly attacks over the past year on civilians in France, Belgium and the United States.But the message made no mention of the EgyptAir flight that crashed into the Mediterranean on Thursday in unexplained circumstances, amid speculation by Egyptian, French and American officials that a militant attack was the most likely cause. A US-led coalition, which also includes European and Arab countries, launched a campaign of air strikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria in 2014 after the militants seized vast swathes of territory in those countries."Their planes do not distinguish between civilians and combatants, man or woman," the message continued, in apparent reference to the strikes.

Iraqi army says preparing to retake ISIS-held Fallujah
Reuters | Baghdad Sunday, 22 May 2016/Iraq’s army said on Sunday it was preparing to retake the ISIS stronghold of Fallujah and asked residents to get ready to leave, state TV reported. Families who could not leave should raise white flags to mark their location in the city just went of Baghdad, the army’s media unit added, according to the TV channel. Fallujah was the first Iraqi city to fall to ISIS in January 2014, six months before the group that emerged from al Qaeda swept through large parts of Iraq and neighboring Syria. The army “is asking the citizens that are still in Fallujah to be prepared to leave the city through secured routes that will be announced later,” the channel said. The city on the Euphrates river 50 km (32 miles) west of the capital, had a pre-war population of around 300,000. It is encircled by Iraqi forces and a coalition of Shi’ite militias known as Hashid Shaabi. Known as the “City of Minarets and Mother of Mosques”, Fallujah is a focus for Sunni Muslim faith and identity in Iraq. It was badly damaged in two offensives by U.S. forces against al Qaeda insurgents in 2004.

Iraqi border crossing with Jordan to reopen
The Associated Press, Amman Sunday, 22 May 2016/Iraq's border crossing with Jordan is expected to open in about two weeks, after an almost year-long closure, allowing for a resumption of vital trade and a return of Iraqi refugees, an Iraqi diplomat said Saturday. Iraq had closed the crossing in July because large areas of the border province of Anbar had fallen to ISIS extremists. But since its rapid expansion in 2014, ISIS has lost territory in Anbar in recent months, most recently the town of Rutba. The capture of Rutba by the Iraqi army this week cleared the way for reopening the Trebil crossing, but security forces need time to clear explosives planted by the extremists, said the Iraqi ambassador to Jordan, Safia al-Souhail. Rutba is located about 90 miles (145 kilometers) from the border, on the Jordan-Iraq trade route that links Amman and Baghdad, the respective capitals of the two countries. "We are expecting the opening of the borders in no longer than two weeks' time," the ambassador said. "It might be less, it might be a little bit more, but this is the time frame that we have been informed about."In closing the border last year, Iraq said it wanted to deprive ISIS militants of taxes they impose on cargo trucks driving through the area. The closure dealt a blow to Jordan, with exports to Iraq dropping from $1.16 billion in 2014 to $690 million in 2015. Pro-Western Jordan is part of a US-led military coalition against ISIS, which still controls large areas of both Syria and Iraq. "We hope that the crossing will open sooner than later, because it is of crucial benefit to both Iraq and Jordan," said Jordanian government spokesman Mohammed Momani. Still, it is unclear if opening the crossing will automatically lead to the resumption of land trade.The Iraq military may not be able to secure the long desert highway from ISIS counterattacks that could discourage truck drivers and business people who once used the route. The vast deserts on the fringes of Anbar province, traditionally used by smugglers, were out of government control for years, even before the ISIS takeover of some of the territory. In Saturday's announcement, the Iraqi ambassador said she also hopes an opening of the border will bring back large numbers of Iraqis from Anbar who sought refuge in Jordan after the initial IS land grabs. However, booby-traps set by the extremists might slow any return. In Anbar's capital, Ramadi, several dozen returnees were killed by such explosives after the Iraqi army retook the city.

Obama urges tighter security after Iraq riots
Reuters Sunday, 22 May 2016/US President Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi agreed on the need for tighter security in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone after protesters stormed the area, the White House said on Saturday. At least four anti-government protesters were killed and 90 injured on Friday in clashes with security forces in the Green Zone, which is home to government offices and embassies, hospital sources said on Saturday. Obama spoke by phone with al-Abadi and a White House statement said they noted the need for talks so that "the Iraqi people can address this aspirations through their democratic institutions." Obama also commended al-Abadi for the steps his government has taken in finalizing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and said it is important for the international community to support Iraq's economic recovery amid its fight against the Islamic State.

US commander makes secret visit to Syria
By AFP, Washington Sunday, 22 May 2016/The leading US commander for the Middle East visited northern Syria on Saturday, officials said. General Joseph Votel, head of US Central Command (Centcom), met with US military advisors working with Syrian Arab fighters and with leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Centcom spokesman said, declining to provide more details. During the secret trip which lasted several hours, the Centcom commander visited a handful of locations, CNN reported as it accompanied Votel, the highest-ranking US military official to travel to Syria since its civil conflict began in 2011. US special operations forces are helping train fighters in Syria to fight ISIS as the United States leads a coalition of countries in an air war against the militants in Iraq and Syria. ISIS has seized swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq to create a self-styled "caliphate." Its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has received pledges of alliance from jihadist groups around the world.

Syria Rebels Give Truce Brokers 48 Hours to End Regime Assault
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 22/16/Rebel groups Sunday set a 48-hour deadline for the U.S. and Russian sponsors of a February ceasefire in Syria's conflict to halt a regime offensive in the Damascus region. "We are giving the sponsors of the ceasefire 48 hours to rescue what remains of the accord and to force the criminal regime of (President Bashar) Assad and his allies to completely and immediately halt their brutal offensive against Daraya and Eastern Ghouta," 29 rebel groups said in a statement. "In view of the regime's offensive against all the liberated regions, in particular Daraya... we consider the ceasefire accord to have totally collapsed," the groups said. "Rebel groups will take all possible measures and respond with all means to defend our people and on all fronts until the regime totally halts its offensives against all liberated regions, especially Daraya, and pulls back to its pre-May 14 positions," they said.
Syria's army, backed by Lebanon's Hizbullah, on Thursday recaptured the town of Deir al-Assafir and nine nearby villages in the Damascus region, taking advantage of clashes in the Eastern Ghouta area between rival rebel groups Jaish al-Islam and Faylaq al-Rahman which were among those listed on the joint statement. Hundreds of families fled the area, which Islamist rebels had controlled since 2012. The town of Daraya, also near the capital, was one of the first to erupt in demonstrations against the government in 2011. It has been under a strict regime siege since late 2012.

Russia in first raids on Aleppo since truce
AFP, Beirut Sunday, 22 May 2016/Russian warplanes hit a key rebel supply route to Aleppo on Sunday in Moscow’s first strikes on Syria’s battleground second city since a February ceasefire, a monitoring group said. “The Russian and Syrian warplanes together carried out at least 40 air strikes on the Castello road,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights chief Rami Abdel Rahman said. “They are the heaviest air strikes there since February, and they are also the first confirmed Russian strikes since the truce began,” Abdel Rahman said. The violence wracking Aleppo city over the past month has killed some 300 civilians and left world powers scrambling to save the fragile truce brokered by the United States and Russia nearly three months ago. The northern city -- once Syria’s commercial powerhouse -- is divided between rebel groups in the east and regime forces in the west. The Castello road is a key supply route for rebels leading north out of Aleppo. Even while the rest of the city witnessed relative calm in the first few weeks of the truce, fierce fighting has raged for the highway. On Friday, Moscow proposed joint air strikes with Washington against jihadists in Syria from Wednesday, but its offer was spurned. Russia has been carrying out air strikes in Syria since last September in support of its ally President Bashar al-Assad. Washington launched its air war against the Islamic State group and other jihadists in Syria in 2014. Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said the US military does “not collaborate or coordinate with the Russians on any operations in Syria.”US State Department spokesman John Kirby said nothing had been agreed with Moscow as its ally Damascus was responsible for the “vast majority” of violations of the February ceasefire. Russia’s intervention has significantly strengthened the Syrian government in the five-year-old civil war that has killed more than 270,000 people and driven millions from their homes.

Egypt sends submarine to hunt for EgyptAir jet
By Ahmed Aboulenein, Reuters, Cairo Sunday, 22 May 2016/Egypt deployed a submarine on Sunday to hunt for the EgyptAir plane that crashed in deep Mediterranean waters, President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi said, warning investigations into the disaster would take time. In his first public remarks on Thursday's crash of the Airbus 320 jet, which killed all 66 people on board, Sisi also said all possible scenarios were still being considered and cautioned against rushing to conclusions.“Search equipment has moved today from the oil ministry, they have a submarine that can reach 3,000 meters under water,” he told assembled ministers and members of parliament at the opening of a fertilizer plant in the port city of Damietta. “It moved today in the direction of the plane crash site because we are working hard to salvage the black boxes.” Egypt has said its navy has so far found human remains, wreckage and the personal belongings of passengers floating in the Mediterranean about 290 km (180 miles) north of Alexandria, but is still searching for the plane’s two black box recorders that could provide valuable evidence on the cause of the crash. Waters in the area of the Mediterranean under search could be 3,000 meters deep, which would place the black box locator beacons on the edge of their detectable range from the surface. Shortly before it disappeared off radar screens, the plane sent a series of warnings indicating that smoke had been detected on board, French investigators said on Saturday. The signals did not indicate what caused the smoke or fire but they offered the first clues as to what unfolded in the moments before the crash. “Until now all scenarios are possible. So please, it is very important that we do not talk and say there is a specific scenario,” Sisi said. “This could take a long time but no one can hide these things. As soon as the results are out people will be informed.”Still image taken from video of recovered debris of EgyptAir jet that crashed in the Mediterranean Sea. (Reuters)

French prime minister visits Israel to push for peace plan
AFP, Tel Aviv Sunday, 22 May 2016/French Prime Minister Manuel Valls was Sunday in Israel to advance his country’s plan to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts in the face of opposition from his counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu. Valls, who arrived on Saturday night, is to meet Netanyahu on Monday before travelling to Ramallah on Tuesday to hold talks with Palestinian prime minister Rami Hamdallah. Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas has welcomed the French initiative to hold a meeting of foreign ministers from a range of countries on June 3, without the Israelis and Palestinians present. Another conference would then be held in the autumn, with the Israelis and Palestinians in attendance. The goal is to eventually restart negotiations that would lead to a Palestinian state. Negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians have been at a standstill since a US-led initiative collapsed in April 2014.
In an interview with Palestinian newspaper Al-Ayyam published Sunday, Valls said that Israeli settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank must stop. But he also reiterated that his government would not automatically recognise a Palestinian state if the peace initiative failed. A threat to do so was made in January by former foreign minister Laurent Fabius, angering the Israeli government. His successor Jean-Marc Ayrault has since backed away from the statement. “The objective is to arrive at the creation of a Palestinian state,” Valls said in the interview. “It is to allow your national aspirations to finally be realised. To say today when we will recognise the Palestinian state is to determine in advance the failure of our initiative.”Valls said “we must also guarantee” Israel’s security, but called for a halt to settlement building, considered a major stumbling block to peace. Settlements in the West Bank are considered illegal under international law and built on land the Palestinians see as part of their future state.“Stopping settlements is an imperative,” he said. “Because we cannot both want to discuss peace and be sincere in the negotiations and at the same time continue to create facts on the ground.”Valls’s visit comes at a time of political turbulence in Israel, with Netanyahu expected to soon finalize negotiations with the party of hardliner Avigdor Lieberman, detested by the Palestinians, to join his coalition. Lieberman, who lives in a West Bank settlement, is expected to take on the key role of defense minister. On Sunday, Valls’s visit was mainly devoted to economic and cultural issues.

UN: Progress being made in Yemen peace talks
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Sunday, 22 May 2016/Peace talks aimed at ending fighting in Yemen are making “incredible progress” and that a halt in fighting is largely holding, the UN envoy for Yemen said. Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said at a forum in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Sunday that a cessation of hostilities is holding around 80 to 90 percent, even if pockets of violence continue. Cheikh added that the drop in fighting has allowed much-needed aid to make its way to areas affected by the fighting in the impoverished Arab country. He is also hopeful that most of the thorniest issues in the conflict have been discussed during peace talks taking place in Kuwait and that a resolution could be “very close.” Meanwhile, diplomatic sources told Al Arabiya News Channel that the Yemeni government’s delegation has received a letter from the UN envoy on Sunday emphasizing that solving the conflict would be based on legitimacy, the Gulf countries’ initiative and the UN Security Council resolution number 2216. The resolution – adopted in April last year – requires the Iran-backed Houthi militias to surrender their weapons and withdraw from seized territory. In a related story, Yemeni troops killed 13 militants in a raid outside the southern city of Mukalla on Sunday in which two soldiers also died, the army said, extending a struggle to restore security in an area ruled until last month by al-Qaeda.“Special forces and the army gained complete control over the site backed up by helicopters from the Arab coalition, which dealt with groups of terrorists spread around the area who were fleeing,” an army statement said. “A search confirmed that these fighters were about to carry out a surprise terrorist attack on some military command centers at dawn this morning.” A security official said the fighters were from al-Qaeda. Before being forced out, al-Qaeda militants took advantage of more than a year of war between the Houthis and supporters of the internationally recognized President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to carve out a mini-state stretching across much of the Arabian Peninsula country’s southern coast, including Mukalla.
Protest in Aden
Police have opened fire to disperse dozens of Aden residents protesting power cuts in Yemen’s second city, killing one, a local government official said Sunday. “A resident was killed and others were wounded” by police gunfire during the late Saturday protests, said the official who requested anonymity. Dozens of people took to the streets in several Aden neighborhoods protesting a lack of electricity supply as temperatures soared to almost 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in the coastal city. Residents blocked roads, erected barricades and set tyres ablaze, prompting police intervention, witnesses said. Most of the city’s electricity installations were destroyed during fighting between pro-government forces and Iran-backed rebels last year. The Houthis who seized Sanaa in September 2014, expanded south and entered Aden in March last year, but loyalists backed by the Saudi-led coalition pushed them out in July. Yemen’s Prime Minister Ahmed bin Dagher on Wednesday accused the Huthi rebels and their allies of bringing the country's economy to the brink of collapse. Fighting has killed more than 6,400 people, displaced about 2.8 million and left 82 percent of Yemen’s population in need of aid, the United Nations says.
(With agencies)

Yemen govt. forces kill 13 militants in former Qaeda bastion near Mukalla
AFP, Aden Sunday, 22 May 2016/Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia-led coalition aircraft killed 13 suspected militants in two overnight raids near the former al-Qaeda stronghold of Mukalla, a security official said on Sunday. Three soldiers also died in the raids on suspected al-Qaeda hideouts east of the port city of some 200,000 people that pro-government forces recaptured last month, the official said. Nine troops were wounded in the assaults in the Rukob and Bowaish districts outside the Hadramawt province capital. Two militants were captured. Apache helicopters of the coalition that intervened in support of President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi in March last year took part in the raids. Last month, Hadi loyalists backed by the UAE and Saudi Arabian special forces drove al-Qaeda out of Mukalla and the port city of Shihr further east, ending a year of jihadist rule.But since then there has been a spate of attacks on security forces, many of them suicide bombings, claimed by al-Qaeda or ISIS. Despite its loss of Mukalla and the Indian Ocean coast, al-Qaeda retains a strong presence in the province and still controls several towns in the interior valley of Wadi Hadramawt. Washington regards al-Qaeda’s Yemen-based branch as its most dangerous and has stepped up a longstanding drone war against it in recent weeks.
Watch: Yemeni army.. joint target of Qaeda, ISIS and Houthis

Yemen FM: We will give talks 'last chance'
By Staff writer Al Arabiya English News Saturday, 21 May 2016/Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdulmalik Mikhlafi who is leading the government negotiating team announced Saturday that he received regional and international guarantees to comply with the six points mentioned by the government delegation in Kuwait consultations. He added in a tweet that the delegation received the guarantees in order to give Kuwait consultations a ‘last chance.’ The Yemeni government late on Tuesday suspended its participation in UN-sponsored peace talks in Kuwait and said it would only return if its opponents, the Houthis, committed to withdraw from cities they have seized since 2014 and hand over weapons. The talks center on government demands for the Houthis to hand over their weapons and quit cities captured since 2014 and the formation of a new government that would include the Houthis. The pullout comes after UN special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said he was optimistic about achieving a peaceful settlement in the war-torn country. The two delegations were on the verge of finalizing a deal to release half of the detainees and prisoners before the start of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan in early June. The United Nations estimates that more than 6,400 people have been killed and 2.8 million displaced in Yemen since March last year. Kuwait emir urges Yemen foes to press on with peace talks

Libyan, Yemeni and Saudi ISIS supporters added to US terror list
Saudi Gazette Sunday, 22 May 2016/The United States has added ISIS branches in Libya, Yemen and Saudi Arabia to its global terrorism blacklist and placed six men on its sanctions list. The three ISIS branches were declared “specially designated global terrorists,” a category that imposes sanctions and penalties on foreign persons who pose a serious risk of committing acts of terrorism that threaten US nationals or national security, the State Department said. The designations freeze any US assets the groups may have and make it illegal for any American national to knowingly provide those groups or conspire to provide them with material support or resources. The State Department said the three groups emerged as ISIS branches in November 2014. The militant group’s Yemen branch claimed responsibility for suicide bombings in March 2015 against two mosques in Sanaa, killing more than 120 people. The Daesh affiliate in Saudi Arabia attacked mosques in the Kingdom and Kuwait, killing more than 50. And the group’s Libyan affiliate is blamed for kidnapping and executing 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians, as well as killing scores of others.The sanctions target “financiers and facilitators responsible for moving money, weapons and people on behalf of these terrorist organizations,” said Adam Szubin, the Treasury’s acting under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

Turkey's transport minister elected as head of ruling AK Party at congress
Agencies Sunday, 22 May 2016/Turkish Transport Minister Binali Yildirim was unanimously elected on Sunday as the new leader of the ruling AK Party and therefore the prime minister, allowing President Tayyip Erdogan to cement his grip on government as he seeks greater powers. One of the co-founders of the AK Party along with Erdogan, Yildirim, 60, won all the votes from the 1,405 delegates at an extraordinary party congress. His main task in the post, observers say, will be to push through a change in the constitution to transform Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system, placing more power in Erdogan's hands. The 60-year-old will replace Ahmet Davutoglu, who threw in the towel after a bitter power struggle with Erdogan. Divisions between Davutoglu and Erdogan had been boiling for months over a series of issues including Turkey's peace process with the Kurdish militants, an accord with the European Union on refugees and the shift from parliamentary to presidential system. Analysts expect that Yildirim -- who has never stepped out of line with the president on a policy issue -- will prove a far more pliable figure for the president and allow Erdogan to further consolidate his powers. "Yildirim could be the last prime minister of Turkey..," said political commentator Gokhan Bacik. "He will only have the role of deputy to Erdogan in the (presidential system) that he wants to put in place". The analyst also predicted that Erdogan would oversee foreign and economic policy in the new cabinet. Erdogan's critics have accused him of authoritarian behavior, pointing to the growing number of investigations pursued against journalists along with a highly controversial bill adopted by parliament on Friday that would lift immunity for dozens of pro-Kurdish and other MPs and could see them evicted from parliament.
Another critical task facing the new prime minister will be to negotiate with the European Union on a crunch visa deal, a key plank of an accord aimed at easing the EU's migrant crisis. The visa deal has been in jeopardy over Ankara's reluctance to alter its counter-terror laws, a requirement of the agreement, prompting Erdogan to make a series of critical statements about the EU in recent weeks. Both Erdogan and Yildirim are strongly opposed to resuming talks with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Kurdish militant group that has claimed responsibility for several attacks across Turkey since a two-year-long ceasefire collapsed in 2015. Yildirim vowed last week to "rid Turkey of the calamity of terrorism" during a symbolic visit to the mainly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir in the southeast. Yildirim worked as head of the Istanbul ferry company while Erdogan was mayor of the city in the second half of the 1990s. After the conservative Islamic-rooted AKP won power, he served an almost unbroken stint from 2002 to 2013 and again from 2015 as transport minister.(With AFP and Reuters)

South Korean premier meets with Saudi foreign minister
Saudi Gazette, Jeddah Sunday, 22 May 2016/South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn received at his residence in the Guests Palace in Jeddah Saturday Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. In a press statement to Saudi Press Agency (SPA), following the meeting, Jubeir announced that the two sides reviewed bilateral relations between the two countries, begun in 1963. He asserted their distinction and the economic bonds binding them in the domain of investments. He said South Korea is the fifth biggest commercial partner investing in Saudi Arabia, which, reciprocally, has huge investments in South Korea. He added that the two countries are working together with keenness to develop these relations and elevate them to the best levels. The meeting was attended by the Minister of Economy and Planning Eng. Adel Bin Muhammad Faqih, who is the accompanying minister; Saudi Ambassador to South Korea Riyadh Bin Ahmed Al-Mubaraki and other senior officials, as well as the South Korean accompanying delegation.

Azhar Imam to Urge Tolerance in Historic Pope Meeting
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 22/16/The deputy of al-Azhar's grand imam in Egypt said on Sunday the top Muslim cleric will bear a message of tolerance when he meets Pope Francis in Rome. Monday’s meeting will be the first between the leader of the world's Catholics and one of Islam's most important clerics. Abbas Shuman, deputy to grand imam Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, told AFP on Sunday that Francis's gestures towards Muslims encouraged Tayeb to meet the pope after falling out with his predecessor Benedict XVI. "If it were not for these good positions (by Pope Francis) the meeting would not be happening," Shuman said. Ties between the Vatican and al-Azhar, one of Islam's most prestigious centres of learning, soured in 2006 when Benedict delivered a speech interpreted as linking the Muslim Prophet Mohammed to violence. Relations have steadily improved since Francis became pope in 2013 with inter-faith dialogue near the top of his agenda. He underlined this improvement in ties with a personal message to the Muslim world to mark the end of the first month of Ramadan during his pontificate. Shuman said Tayeb will have a message for both the West and Muslims. Tayeb's visit aims at setting straight the image of "true Islam and to correct misunderstandings created by extremist terrorist groups" in Western countries, he said. "He encourages countries not to deal with their Muslim citizens as groups that present a threat," Shuman said. "And he encourages Muslims in Western society to meld with their societies... it is a message for both sides."Pope Francis made headlines in April when he returned from a trip to the migrant crisis island of Lesbos with three Syrian Muslim families who are now being put up by the Vatican as they apply for asylum in Italy. Church officials say the choice of families was random, but the gesture was nevertheless highlighted by media throughout the Islamic world.

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 22- 23/16

This is not our Salafism
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
I was supposed to be in Berlin to attend the discussion of a book written by my colleagues Hassan Abu Haniya and Mohammed Abu Ruman entitled “The Islamic State Organization: Sunni Crisis and the Struggle of Global Jihadism.”However, due to some booking arrangements I ended up in Amsterdam, where I became interested to know more about the Sunni crisis represented by the term “Salafi.”While there, I spent most of my time reading Abu Ruman’s interesting book “I am a Salafi,” in which he collects testimonies showing that the term “Salafi” is not inclusive or precise. Europe’s security establishments are unable or unwilling to understand the differences between the various Salafi movements. While Arab security establishments are aware of the differences, some Arab intellectuals refuse to acknowledge them because they are against all Salafis.This reminds me of the story of former US President Ronald Reagan listening to the head of US intelligence about the structure of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the differences between its divisions. Reagan, confused, ended the meeting by saying: “You mean all of them are terrorists.”Accusations against Saudi Salafist thoughts should stop, because the Salafism that is raging in Europe and feeding the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is not ours
Identity
While in Amsterdam, I asked a seemingly religious taxi driver of Moroccan origin about his status as a Muslim living in Europe and how he describes himself. “I am a Salafi,” he said. I wish he had said “I am a Muslim.” This change in description should be the main target in the war on extremism. The image of a Salafi can be confusing. Fouad Bel Kacem, mentor of the radical Salafi organization Sharia for Belgium, looks like well-known Egyptian Salafi preacher Mohammed Hassan, who rejects violence. They both wear the white ghotra without a headband, like any Saudi Salafi preacher. The question is, who is the true Salafi? Even in Saudi Arabia, considered by Europeans as a breeding ground of Salafism, there is no common answer. There is ongoing debate about Salafism and its role in terrorism in Europe and Saudi Arabia. The Saudi debate is more critical due to the close relation between the kingdom and the Salafi school that gave birth to the Saudi state 270 years ago. The kingdom is trying hard to return Salafism to its origins, which have nothing to do with today’s belligerent Salafi groups. I find in Salafism the meaning of freedom. It is a way to get rid of a religious man’s hegemony. This is behind the rise of creative capacity among most of the religious and political reform movements that constituted the Islamic world until now. This includes Wahhabism, as Westerners call it, which gave birth to present-day Saudi Arabia. For many, however, Wahhabism means a refusal to adapt to modern life. For more than a century, it was possible to describe a reformist such as Sheikh al-Azhar Mohammed Abdu, who died in 1905, as a Salafi. However, after Salafism became radical and divided into several parties, it became impossible to consider him as such. Current Salafis say he has no respect for Salafism.
Certainly, young men such as Salah Abdul Salam or Abdul Hamid Baoud, who led the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, will not sit at a table discussing Islam and the multiple Salafi movements.
Origins
Most of these Salafi groups constituted their thoughts and jurisprudence in mosques in poor European regions, in Peshawar (Pakistan) during the last days of the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, and in Arab prisons. Their violence crossed into Egypt at the beginning of the 1990s and then into Libya and Algeria, fueled by outrage over political failure and despotism. They do not want a moderate Islam. They believe that they cannot make change via democracy. They always had doubts about democracy, but some decided to give it a chance in Algeria in 1990, and through the Arab Spring in 2011. However, attempts in both cases failed, reinforcing the belief that the use of power is the only solution. We must recognize that jihadist Salafism, extremism and infidelity are viruses attacking the Muslim world. It can be contained as long as it does not threaten governments, and is dealt with under the law and by firm accountability. The world can live with it as it lives with neo-Nazis and European right-wing extremism. However, this virus will expand amid chaos and state collapse, so efforts must focus on recognizing the main causes of the virus. Accusations against Saudi Salafist thoughts should stop, because the Salafism that is raging in Europe and feeding the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is not ours.

Egypt and the aversion of investors
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
Egypt’s number one enemy is neither terrorism nor the opposition – it is the economy. Successive governments in the country have promised reforms but hardly succeeded. It’s the enemy which can shake the pillars of the state again and creatie chaos – more than the Muslim Brotherhood and even the armed opposition groups. Economy is also the only challenge that can be overcome as compared to other challenges staring Egypt in the face. It is an important battle but the situation can be improved. The government has spoken about a new phase of development and started its era with promises which it began to be implemented. However, massive projects may not be enough to save the economy as burdens increase and difficulties continue to exist. Perhaps there’s a massive project which we are not aware of and which will build an economy based on the aspirations of its 90 million people. We believe in Egypt because it has a huge market. It’s the second biggest economy in Africa after Nigeria. Yet, global companies are losing confidence in Egypt due to political propaganda, bureaucracy’s inability to open up or due to restraints imposed on the few investors who have taken the risk by going to work in Egypt.
This does not diminish the accomplishments made so far. The new Suez Canal was completed in one year. It was a massive construction engineering project and it was an important test of the government’s will - a test it passed. The second question is: does the government have new ideas? All Egyptian governments have executed multiple projects but none of them proposed a plan to develop the country’s economy. All we’ve had for decades are promises for development. We must exclude the first experience of change led by late President Anwar al-Sadat when he opened the economy as part of political change following the Camp David Agreement. Sadat was the first to adopt this approach. Socialist countries, mainly the Soviet Union, and the socialist eastern European countries followed suit. Egypt can do better with its huge resources and capabilities but we fear that the state’s rivals will succeed at distracting its attention and keeping it occupied with political challenges.
Journey of reform
Egypt’s consecutive governments did not complete this journey of reform and development, unlike Poland, Bulgaria and other such countries. What slowed down this path of development is that Cairo focused on confronting political challenges. Former president Hosni Mubarak developed an ambitious reform transition plan; however it deviated from its path as a result of political and administrative tussles. Mubarak focused on the game of political balances with the opposition in the street and with the political parties within the regime and leaders in governance. And so years passed until the government found itself incapable of fulfilling people’s livelihood needs. Meanwhile the political opposition was waiting to seize the moment for change and the moment came in 2011. President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi’s era started with the talk of development, change and prosperity. This was the third such occasion since the end of the socialist economic system in the 1970’s. Egypt promised to attract international investments and this first required reforming legislations as well as developing a comprehensive economic plan that acts as a roadmap. Egypt can do better with its huge resources and capabilities but we fear that the state’s rivals will succeed at distracting its attention and keeping it occupied with political challenges. We know that the Egyptian opposition, regional struggles and administrative disputes are enough to consume the government’s energy and distract it from the more important promises. We cannot, however, underestimate the extent of harm which the opposition has caused to the country’s economy. Tourism, which is one of the most important financial resources, has declined by 66 percent during the first quarter this year. There is no doubt that this has been due to terrorism. Oil price drop also affects Egypt as it has oil and depends on selling the commodity in return for hard currency. Egyptian laborers who work in oil-rich countries also depend on it. Egypt’s situation will continue to be difficult if it doesn’t implement reforms which former governments have avoided. The most important step will be modernizing legislations which are the causes behind investor aversion. Egypt’s economic success will make the country better for its domestic constituents and make it a strong and influential state.

Proud to be an Emirati in New York
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
New York is one of my favorite cities. It has an energy and excitement all of its own. I love everything about it; the contrast between noise, traffic, crowds with sophistication, green areas and an explosion of cultures. I especially love the coffee served in Trump Tower, which I was relieved to note has not erected a dart board with my face on it despite my criticisms of the presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. I take great pleasure in my early morning brisk walks around Central Park in all weathers and there is no place in the world that makes better burgers than New York. If the 18th century English writer Samuel Johnson were still alive, he would surely have said “If you are tired of either London or New York City, you are tired of life.”
Zayed Charity Marathon
I only ever need half an excuse to schedule a visit to catch up with my straight-talking New Yorker friends and was delighted that the Al Habtoor Group was invited to be the main sponsor of a Zayed Charity Marathon that has previously been held in the UAE, Cairo and New York. I was happy to be involved with the UAE Healthy Kidney 10K Marathon on 14 May because it raises awareness for a worthy cause honouring the generous, caring spirit of the Father of the UAE, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, and also because it hoisted my country’s flag high in the heart of the world’s financial, diplomatic and entertainment capital. This wonderful initiative is the brainchild of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, for which he has my greatest respect. Sheikh Zayed has sadly left us but his philanthropic legacy still shines bright thanks to his children and grandchildren. The traditional UAE majlis area set up in Central Park, hosted by the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was a hub attracting Emirati holidaymakers and students studying in the US. Most importantly events like these bring our two peoples closer together and I believe that is crucial during an era when relations between the US and the Arab world are at their best at the political level.This was a day that reminded us that we are all human beings sharing the same planet with similar concerns, hopes and dreams and proved that the barriers separating us are merely man-made. At the people-to-people level we are one; all members of the same human race feeling compassion for those less fortunate. For the tens of thousands who participated in the run, including officials from the UAE embassy, members of the UAE’s United Nations mission and a delegation from the Cancer Care Society, this was a chance to show their competitive edge while representing their country or their cause. It was a fun day out for runners and spectators alike. All who participated were proud but none more so than winners Lucas Rotich and Cynthia Limo, both from Kenya, who each received a cheque for $25,000.
UAE majlis
The traditional UAE majlis area set up in Central Park, hosted by the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was a hub attracting Emirati holidaymakers and students studying in the US. It also offered New Yorkers and visitors from all over the world the opportunity to get to know us while sampling traditional Arabic hospitality and sharing coffee and dates. The temperature was a perfect breezy 15 degrees centigrade; the sky was blue, the smile count at its highest and the atmosphere electric. But its prime value was the promotion of cross-cultural communication and global philanthropy. All proceeds went to help the National Kidney Foundation, an organization dedicated to the prevention of kidney diseases, improving the well-being of affected individuals and to encouraging organ donation. I joked on social media that I had won, but in truth I am more of a tennis guy than a long-distance runner. Perhaps next time I will give it a try. I did not hit the grass but even so, I enjoyed every minute of this extraordinary New York kind of day.

Ya'alon leaves Defense Ministry: Netanyahu abandoned me
Ynet and Yedioth reporters/Ynetnews/Published: 05.22.16/Israel News
In interview he gave last week, the outgoing defense minister levels harsh accusations at the PM: 'he changed his mind after seeing public mood on Hebron shooting affair,' and at his replacement Lieberman: 'he ran a smear campaign against me.'Moshe Ya'alon will leave the Defense Ministry on Sunday, but unlike previous reshuffles, the new minister will not be present at the farewell ceremonies, nor will Ya'alon brief the incoming minister. Ya'alon's resignation from the post of defense minister will come into effect immediately upon his departure from the Kirya IDF Headquarters in Tel Aviv. At 9am, Ya'alon will attend a farewell event from the Defense Ministry, and at 4:30pm, he will say goodbye to the General Staff. On Saturday night, the outgoing minister met with Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein and signed his official letter of resignation from the parliament.
On Tuesday night, before his resignation, Ya'alon spoke to Likudnik, a website affiliated with the ruling party, and leveled harsh accusations against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and against the incoming defense minister, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman. "When the Hebron shooting affair just happened, Netanyahu had agreed with me that we needed to let the military prosecution investigate and handle this," Ya'alon told the website. "And then, when he noticed the public mood, he changed his mind. As a minister, I had to back the IDF chief, but I felt like Netanyahu abandoned me."When asked why he was quick to call Sgt. Elor Azaria, who shot dead an already-neutralized terrorist in Hebron, the "transgressing soldier," Ya'alon noted: "He simply took the law into his own hands. He opened fire without justification."
Ya'alon also came head to head with Lieberman and Education Minister Naftali Bennett during the Hebron shooting affair. "They ran a smear
campaign against me the entire time," he accused. "Lieberman was involved both personally and indirectly when (former Yisrael Beytenu MK) Sharon Gal, who is Lieberman's man, became the (Azaria) family's PR guy. I felt like Netanyahu had abandoned both the IDF chief and myself when Gal put him through to talk to the family on the phone. I have principles. Not everything is politics."Ya'alon also responded to accusations from the far right that during his term in office, he foiled settlement in the West Bank. "I couldn't let them take over the structures in Hebron," he said. "There's illegal conduct in this story. As a defense minister, I approved construction where we could approve it. I didn't approve construction in places that were illegal."
Improving conditions at border crossings
Before leaving office, Ya’alon announced last week the completion of plans designed to improve the conditions of Palestinians at West Bank border crossings. The implementation of the new initiative is expected to begin in 2017 and be fully completed within the first three years thereafter. “In recent months, teams from the Defense Ministry, the Border Authority, the Finance Ministry and COGAT - led by the defense minister and Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon - formulated a biennial program to upgrade the crossings in the West Bank,” a statement from Ya’alon’s office said.
“The plan is intended to increase the number of Palestinian workers passing through the crossings while improving their conditions and meeting the objectives of quality and service,” the statement continued. “In addition, it will increase the amount of goods passing through the relevant crossings by around 30 percent. “The waiting time at the crossings will be decreased by 30-50 percent. This will be done in tandem with an upgrade of the technological measures used at the crossings.” According to the statement, the plan will cost NIS 300 million, which will be taken from the COGAT budget allocated for the area. This initiative to improve the conditions of Palestinians crossing into Israel is the largest of its kind in the last ten years. The upgrade will serve to ease the flow of workers, visitors and goods from the territories at crossings including Tarkomia, Beitar, Rachel, Qalandiya, Eyal and Efraim.
The initiative is part of Ya'alon's larger plan to improve the economic situation of the Palestinian population, which also includes issuing some 30,000 additional work permits.
Also included in the new measures will be an increase in the number of security-checking areas in order to shorten the waiting hours for Palestinian workers. Security checks will be augmented with more biometric methods. In addition to fingerprinting, face-recognition will be introduced designed to speed up the checks and improve security at the crossings. The checks will be conducted on both sides of the crossings where Palestinians will have access to shelters, water installations and parking lots.
The Knesset's upcoming challenges
The Knesset will open its summer session on Monday with last week's political drama still lingering: The failure of coalition negotiations with the Zionist Union and the harsh criticism against chairman Isaac Herzog, Yisrael Beytenu joining the government, and mostly Ya'alon's resignation will all continue to feature heavily in public discourse for a long time. Yisrael Beytenu has yet to officially sign the agreement to join the government due to budgetary issues over the party's demand to complete the pension reform and its demand to amend the law to allow death sentence to terrorists. On Friday, Lieberman and Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon held their first meeting on the pension reform. At first, Lieberman sought to secure pensions only for immigrants from the former Soviet Union, but it was eventually decided to apply the planned reform on all immigrants, as well as on other Israelis who did not work enough years to accumulate sufficient pension funds. The cost of the reform stands at about NIS 3 billion, a sum that could only be allocated if it is done gradually over the period of a few years.
Lieberman and Kahlon agreed to meet again at the beginning of the week to finalize the details. Meanwhile, Likud Minister Yariv Levin has been working with Lieberman to formulate a draft bill proposal on death sentence to terrorists, Yisrael Beytenu's flagship legislation, which could withstand the High Court's judgment. One of the options is to amend the legislation that allows the military court to hand out capital punishment to terrorists if a unanimous decision is made by three judges, and change it so only two judges suffice. Here, too, the sides have yet to reach a final agreement and it is possible the two sides will commit to working on the legislation during the upcoming Knesset session. Meanwhile, in another political stunt, United Torah Judaism MK Meir Paroush announced that he is resigning from the Knesset so that candidate number seven on the party list, former MK Ya'akov Asher, could return to parliament. Paroush will continue serving as the deputy education minister as part of the "Norwegian Law," which allows factions to increase their power in the Knesset at the expense of its members serving in government positions.
In the opposition, Zionist Union members are still reeling from the political drama of last week. On Thursday, members of the faction received a message on a special meeting ahead of the beginning of the Knesset session. Officials in the party said Herzog is expected to face strong criticism from party members, many of whom objected to the talks to join the government. He may also face calls to hold the primaries for the party leadership earlier than initially planned, after he had lost the trust of many of the party's members.
***Yuval Karni, Moran Azulay, Yoav Zitun and Kobi Nachshoni contributed to this story.

Opinion: We Are Leaving Political Islam
Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al Awsat/May 22/16
In an interview with the French Le Monde newspaper, the leader of Tunisia’s Muslim Brotherhood Ennahda party Rachid Ghannouchi announced that the path of the party has been transformed and said that “We are leaving political Islam and entering democratic Islam. We are Muslim democrats who no longer claim to represent political Islam”. Ghannouchi stressed that the Ennahda party is “a political, democratic and civilian party based on modern, Muslim and civilised values … We are going towards a party which specialises only in political activities”. Ghannouchi explained further by saying “We want religious activity to be completely independent from political activity. This is good for politicians because they would no longer be accused of manipulating religion for political means and good for religion because it would not be held hostage to politics”.
This is Ghannouchi’s current opinion and position. Does this mean that he is apologising for decades of incitement carried out by the Muslim Brotherhood in our region under religious cover in order to reach purely political purposes that he openly admits now by saying “This is good for politicians because they would no longer be accused of manipulating religion for political means and good for religion because it would not be held hostage to politics”?Or is Ghannouchi convinced that there is no hope for political Islam in the Arab world and internationally, and that this is the beginning of the actual end of political Islam, especially as a European diplomatic source told the French press that “Ghannouchi is almost obsessed with persuading Western partners that the Ennahda party is not the Muslim Brotherhood”? We say that there is no hope for political Islam because, particularly after the Arab Spring, there is a clear rejection of currents of political Islam in our region, and in Gulf societies specifically. The currents of political Islam have lost their credibility and are no longer what they were previously. Internationally, we are coming to the end of President Barack Obama’s presidency. Obama thought that political Islam would bring democracy and political reform to the region, and that Islamist parties, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, would be along the lines of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party. However, today we see what Erdogan is doing in terms of encroachment to attain more power. Will Ghannouchi’s announcement that the Ennahda party does not associate itself with “political Islam” start a serious debate in our region that discusses the damage that political Islam causes? Will it result in the rectification of outdated concepts that are cemented in the minds of generations as a result of the Islamic movement campaigns, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, which led campaigns that incited hate for decades in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and destroyed young people after transforming them into extremist villains? We hope so.

Easiest Way to Untie the Assad Knot: Say Loudly You Just did
Middle East Briefing/May 22/16

Washington and Moscow are moving quietly to implement their “shared” view on Syria. Taking a look at the contacts between the UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura and Secretary John Kerry on the one hand, and Syria’s opposition and its regional allies on the other hand, gives us a quick look at the content of this “shared” solution, and hence enables all to have a critical reading of its chances in solving the Syrian crisis.
In his April 27 “Mediator’s Summary”, de Mistura laid out the framework of his current agenda. The key phrase in this framework is “governance and transition”. The problems which are facing “governance and transition” are known to all: President Bashar Al Assad wants to remain in power; his mafia of business owners who grew nurtured by his political power do not want him to leave power; Iran, which does not trust any future alternative, does not want him to leave power; and Hezbollah, which considers him an insurance policy for its own future, does not want him to leave power.
On the other side, those who look at the implications of Assad remaining in power understand that such a proposition prevents any reasonable solution. Indeed, it is difficult to conceive of a stable Syria under a president who caused the death of almost half a million of its people.
While Assad may appear to many to be just one person, and while many wonder how one person can prevent a solution for a crisis that caused all the horrors we have seen, the structure of the state in Syria gives the President the role of the “brains” in any living body. He is the center of the nervous system (loyalty and patronage networks) and his political power keeps the components of the regime together.
However, the assumption that the state equals Assad is wrong. Like any other country, the Syrian state is constituted of a functional bureaucratic structure, or civil servants, and the political leadership. Therefore, those who talk about Assad as the embodiment of the Syrian state in general are wrong.
Yet, the question of whether the state can survive under a different leadership in the case of Syria is valid. The political leadership, in this case, is one essential component of the functions of the state. Furthermore, the two Assads, father and son, built the deep state in Syria on their image. The leadership of the security forces in the case of Syria is the equivalent of a militia serving a specific political class rather than a nation. This explains the confusion, very common nowadays, between the state and the President.
Therefore, when de Mistura speaks of “governance and transition”, his agenda is naturally focused on solving the problem of Assad. And the solution, according to his “Mediator’s Summary” of last April, is as follows: “the establishment of a credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian governance, the setting of a schedule and process for drafting a constitution, and the holding of free and fair elections”. This was based on the wording of UNSC Resolution 2254.
We will notice immediately that in this phrasing, the question of what to do with Assad is left out. This was the only way to reach a Security Council resolution or to frame the UN envoy’s mission. The concept of basing a solution on both an international consensus as well as the shifting and changing balance of power on the ground in Syria dictated the creative ambiguity which left the fate of Assad out of any foundational effort to open talks.
It was natural then that the fate of Assad becomes the area in which all parties push and pull to reach whatever suits their interests. The reason why this area was left undecided was, in fact, due to the Russian military and diplomatic role. Since the Geneva communiqué of 2012, the changes in phrasing in the plans coming from the Syria Support Group or any other multi-national communiqués were nuanced in a way that reflects the increasing role of Russia and the persistence of disagreements on the fate of Assad.
Now — that is, after the Kremlin enabled Assad to regain some momentum on the ground and after the steady retreat of the US due to the “Do Nothing” doctrine of President Obama, we are detecting signs of how the fate of Assad is shaping up in the ambiguous space left open by this question.
The White House and the State Department have just finished revising a proposed draft of a new Syrian constitution. We detect from messages sent by de Mistura and by the US to opposition forces and their regional backers that the diplomatic effort is heading towards a superficial solution for the “Assad Knot”.
According to de Mistura’s “Mediator’s Summary” we find out that as of the end of last April, the special envoy named correctly the differences in positions between Assad and his opponents in regard to the transitional government. The Summary said: “the present round of talks confirmed that substantial differences exist between the two negotiating parties on their visions of the transition as well as on the interpretation of resolution 2254 (2015)”. It is believed that the differences between 2254 and the Geneva communiqué, an issue we covered previously in MEB, stem from the Russian military intervention and Moscow’s efforts to create a different dynamic on the ground in Syria.
No wonder there were differences, not only on how the transitional government would be formed but also on its domain of authority. The ambiguous area of the role of Assad has always been there and differences grow well when feeding on ambiguity. The current formula promoted by de Mistura gives the transitional government the role of a national unity government, preserves Assad on top for a limited period of time, and allows him to remain politically active in Syria, under legal and political immunity, for years to come.
The difference between a national unity government and a transitional government is not in the names, it is in how each is formed and how they operate. Assad believes that a national unity government is made through an addition of some opposition figures to members of his own government, and that is it. The opposition takes the term transitional government to its literal meaning: that it is a government responsible of building another political system radically different from the Assad police state. For the opposition, the transitional period is a bridge between two different systems. For Assad it is a cosmetic and limited change on the political surface of the same old regime. While the opposition aims at dismantling the Assad mafia inside and outside of the state, the regime aims at preserving this mafia and hopefully “digesting” the opposition within its financial and political empire.
Furthermore, the fact that Assad would remain politically active would certainly allow him to keep his “Godfather” status among his followers, who will remain everywhere within the machine of the state and around it.
Let us forget about what President Obama said repeatedly about Assad, that “he has to go”. After all, it is President Obama. We know that his pockets are filled with “very decisive” words which remain words forever. But the whole dynamic is heading to an alarming conclusion.
Assad will remain, but he will not remain. His knot would be untied, yet it will be preserved. The transitional period is not transitional except in name. The same political elite will disappear, but it will remain in power. All these riddles are offered as a “solution” to the Syrian crisis, as if it were indeed not a crisis. If anyone does not understand this magic and masterfully ambiguous solution, he should seek answers from de Mistura. This “salad” is the core of his proposition. And this is how the Assad knot is being currently untied in closed rooms thousands of miles from refugee camps and bombed cities.
The Syrian crisis is a real crisis. It demands real solutions. Preserving the same governing structure responsible for this tragedy and adding to it some “opposition” decoration is no solution. Giving any authority to Assad is no solution. A transitional government is transitional between two different things. It is a national unity government, but in the real sense of the term. The Assad regime is not an expression of any real national unity, or else we would not have seen all this blood and pain. Giving this regime a face lift by adding some opposition elements to its surface would not change its essence. It is not a solution. It is a reproduction of the same conditions that produced the crisis.
Is it possible to imagine that after all those years and all this blood, a transitional government could constitute a U-shaped bridge moving Assad back to Assad?
Whatever happens, the fight of the opposition will continue until the band of murderers in the Assad mafia, starting with the Godfather, are justly punished. War criminals should not be allowed to rule over their victims. The victims have woken up and no one will force them into submission again.
Neither de Mistura nor President Obama will be able to force what is being prepared now for Syria and the Syrian people. They gave everything to be free. And they will carry on. So, those who intone that the Assad Knot is untied are singing in an echo chamber and only for themselves. The Syrian people have a different song.

Iran Nuclear Deal: Impact on Asymmetric Warfare in the Middle East
Middle East Briefing/May 22/16
The rise of any kind of a moderate Iranian outlook, as was expected, creates a stiffer resistance from the traditionalists and hardliners in Iran. This tension will ultimately reach its breaking point. The content of what emerges after this breaking point depends on many factors like the timing of the face-off and the respective strength of each side. That makes things more complicated for all external parties. We face the risk of tilting towards a policy that calls for more patience than ought to be given, under the pretext of giving the moderates a chance to rise faster, and we also face the risk of following a tough policy that undercuts those moderates and enables the hardliners to expand their influence.
The right mix of the two approaches can be located through examining thoroughly how the two different camps in Tehran behave. In other words, this is not only a theoretical issue. Unless we examine the way each view in Tehran is structured and how it behaves in detail, the debate will lead nowhere.
We will examine one aspect of Iranian behavior that crystallizes the differences in Tehran, even as it reveals the difficulty of formulating a policy towards those differences: asymmetric wars and Tehran’s ties to non-state actors in the Middle East.
This aspect gives a clear view of what should be done about the two conflicting trends of the hardliners and the moderates in Iran. It also manifests in practical terms how theoretical assumptions about Iran’s foreign policy are limited.
Asymmetric warfare is a tool of Tehran’s foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East. The reason Iran’s foreign policy is relevant to our subject matter is that it is not merely an outward attitude of the regime towards the world, but it also has a deep inward impact on the competition between the moderates and the hardliners.
Furthermore, asymmetric warfare has turned to be the dominant form of military conflicts in the Middle East since the last major regional war in 1991. The domain of this particular strategy and its available tools is almost exclusively under the direct command of the hardliners. This does not mean necessarily that the moderates do not approve of both the strategy and its tools, but they do not control either.
As it is under the disposal of the hardliners, the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not merely Iran’s headquarters of regional asymmetric warfare, it is also a powerful player in domestic policies and in shaping Tehran’s overall behavior internally and externally. This entails that any reduction in IRGC clout in any of the two spheres of its activities, domestic and foreign, will impact the other sphere.
The equation is as follows: Iranians moderates have a variety of responses that differ from those of the IRGC, to variable extents depending on the questions. When the general environment in Iran becomes conducive to a more moderate attitude, this results logically on a more aggressive pushback by the hardliners. Those hardliners exist in both domestic social and political structures as well as foreign policy apparatuses.
This leads us to ask the central question: How would it be possible to further the cause of moderate politics in Iran?
The nuclear deal was promoted as one important step in that direction. We have argued repeatedly on previous occasions that while this may be one of the intentions of the promoters of the deal, by making it a stand-alone step and separating it from the general behavior of Iran, the deal may turn into a factor in achieving the opposite of this very intention. It may reinforce the hand of the hardliners.
This argument is based, among other factors, on the fact that the deal will mobilize the hardliners to defend their views and increase their pressure to continue the country’s current behavior unabated. We already see this happening. It is also based on the fact that the hardliners may actually benefit from the deal in terms of increased funds, arms, and new openings to the global community; we also see this happening.
In other words, while the deal’s Western signers may have hoped that the consequences would provide the moderates with a more favorable environment to increase their clout, the net result could be an intensification of the hardliners’ domestic influence, be it economic, military, or political.
We admit that proving either interpretation of the impact of the deal will have to wait longer and be based on more empirical evidence. The one thing that should be urgent however is how to confront the IRGC asymmetric warfare in the Middle East, hence offsetting the expansion of the hardliners as we see it now. (We do not consider the Presidency or Parliament accurate reflections of the balance of power. This balance is better reflected in the economic, security, and decision-making circles).
Aspects of power should not be reduced to the number of tanks and planes or to the physical presence of a moderate or a reformist in the seat of the presidency. The power of the IRGC is multifaceted. And those who defend the nuclear deal as a facilitator of a long-awaited Iranian shift in behavior do not understand that this shift in behavior will not happen solely as a result of the nuclear deal. In fact, the nuclear deal, as we have said, may turn out to be an amplifier of extremism so long as it is taken as a standalone tool to influence Tehran’s behavior.
Abandoning this strategy will go down in history as part and parcel of what should have been done to prove to all Iranians that the hardliners should not be the future of Iran, and to deprive them of gaining more influence in the their domestic conflict with the moderate and liberal forces. In other words, it will minimize any negative impact that may occur due to the nuclear deal.
It should be clear that signing the nuclear deal, then sitting passively to wait for Tehran to change its behavior, or worse, cooperating with this behavior on the basis of admitting it has “legitimate” military-political aspirations in the region, does not create the right conditions for the nuclear deal to bear any fruit vis-a-vis Iranian behavior globally. The hardliners should not be appeased. They should be confronted.
Let us imagine, for example, a clear defeat of the IRGC in one of its regional adventures. This would naturally lead to a weakening of its grip and positions inside Iran.
The clearest proof of this is that we detect an increase, not a decrease, in Iranian involvement in asymmetric warfare in the last couple of years. The ability to finance proxy forces has increased while Iran is moving to get the world to deal with it as a “normal” country despite its large-scale subversion and ties to terrorism. Iran, in other words, is pushing to legalize intervention in other countries’ affairs in global relations. Worse, it is seeing successes in that.
On the other hand we hardly see any changes in Iranian domestic policies. The main valves of power are still under the control of the IRGC. Only political facades and discourse change in marginal ways. And even those superficial changes allow the hardliners to regroup and mobilize. At the end, we will discover that this post-nuclear-deal-Iran may be even more defiant and its hardliners more resilient than ever before.
There are two things that are usually mixed up and confused one with the other. To focus singularly on the nuclear deal is not equivalent to criticize the context in which the deal was signed and its consequences. While the deal in and of itself could be justified, notwithstanding flaws related to delivery systems, it should have been integrated into a global strategic approach capable of preventing the current limbo and zigzag which only allows the hardliners to consolidate their powers and “contain” any favorable impact of normalizing ties with Tehran.
Instead, the Obama administration believed that the mission was accomplished when the deal was signed and rushed to open a “new page” with the Ayatollahs, all the while waiting for those favorable results to happen by themselves. The administration instead got a more defiant Iran and wider-scale asymmetric warfare. More waiting will bring more of the same.
As for US allies in the Middle East, the US has put in place a condition that enhancing security cooperation does not mean help in solving internal crises. This calls for a deep study of the relation between internal troubles and insurgencies. The US’s condition, as stated by President Obama, looks on the surface to be logical and understandable. However, it raises the issue of Iranian intervention using domestic forces and assisting those forces in waging an insurgency, as is happening in Yemen.
Iran’s strategy is structured by one organizing principle: to weaken the US’s regional presence and American allies in the Middle East. The IRGC generally uses several methods to achieve this, among them inflaming internal disputes in regional countries to exploit any domestic conflict in order to have a pretext for intervention. Iran has never shown any interest in preserving the national unity of the countries it targets, from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq to Yemen. On the contrary, all Iranian subversive efforts, by their nature and definition, aim at weakening the national state as such. This places Iranian asymmetric warfare in the Middle East squarely in the context of jeopardizing the existing world order. Iran believes that this order does not allow its ambitions the proper space to come to fruition. In that, they have an identical position, with varying intensities and focuses, with Russia.
We detect that the security arrangements negotiated currently between the GCC countries and the US, for example, are focused on enhancing Arab retaliation against conventional Iranian aggression. But we think that the focus has to include a strategy for combating asymmetric warfare based on a clear definition of the relation of this tactic with “normal” internal grievances not helped or exploited by Iran’s IRGC.
Only through such a step, the US would be able to look seriously at methods to confront the IRGC’s expansion of its asymmetric warfare in the region. Confronting this tactic naturally redefines military conflicts in the Middle East in the first half of the 21st century. But what is more important is that it will also shift to combating the IRGC, hence it will be an important factor in weakening its domestic position inside Iran as well.

Russia and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Security
Middle East Briefing/May 22/16
According to Russia’s RIA Novosti, Russia is willing to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran in order to lower tension in the Middle East. A source in Moscow’s Foreign Ministry was quoted by the news service on April 11 as saying: “We express sincere regrets over the escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran because we believe these two large Muslim countries are very influential in the region, on the global arena and on the oil market”.
According to the diplomat, Moscow has friendly ties both with Tehran and Riyadh, and “is willing to play, if necessary, a role as a mediator in the settlement of existing and emerging discords between these two countries”.
One month later, Russia offered to arm the Libyan army when the restrictions on arms sales to Libya are eased. President Putin had a long telephone conversation with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi during which the two leaders discussed in some detail the situation in Libya.
It is true that the Arab Spring marked a turning point in Russia’s Middle East strategy. An increasing Russian pushback against what it perceives as a systematic move by the West to topple its regional allies has culminated in Russia’s bold military intervention in Syria in 2015 to protect one of its last regional friends.
The importance of the Moscow Foreign Ministry’s offer of mediation between the GCC and Iran is not in its potential effect. It is clear that the offer does not have wings to help it take off. Rather, it is in the message Moscow wanted to send with this offer. And the message is clear: We wish to remain relevant. But can he remain relevant?
The structural problems in President Putin’s Middle East strategy were obvious from the beginning when Moscow tried to play a more assertive role in the region. First, it does not have the muscles for the heavy lifting required. Second, it is mobilizing against a background of long absence of ties with major players. Third, the nature of the regional crisis is such as to leave little room for playing both sides of the regional rift.
There was a better chance for Moscow to build some forward bridges last year. A year ago, the Saudi King Salman was invited to visit Moscow. The visit was expected to happen in August, as Sergei Lavrov said. “The conversation regarding the situation in the Middle East, began in Saint Petersburg [at the SPIEF-2015 economic forum] with the Crown Prince and continued in Doha and opened the possibility for more detailed discussions,” Lavrov said during the Saudi Foreign Minister’s August 11 visit to Moscow. A source in the Russian Defense Ministry told Russian media outlets that the King will come to Moscow. According to the source, the Saudi and Jordanian kings will visit the MAKS-2015 air show and defense expo on its opening day, August 25, together with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
During preparations for the visit, which did not happen, it became obvious that President Putin’s policy on Syria was non-negotiable. It was clear then that the Saudis were offering certain “incentives” to Putin in areas like arms deals and oil policy, but the Russian President declined the offer in return for a reasonable understanding on Syria. The same Russian reluctance was reported in previous visits to Moscow of high-level Saudi officials, including Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman.
Moscow was then, as it is now, faced with a stark choice: Either reach a reasonable understanding with the Saudis and anger Tehran, or decline the Saudi offers. There is no magic way to remain on friendly terms with both sides when they are at war. It is indeed a challenge to keep one foot on opposing sides of the rift when the two sides are drifting away from each other.
Russia’s naïve initiative of forming a regional coalition to fight ISIS was a manifestation of the poverty of Russian tactics for reducing the gap. The recent offer of mediation is yet another naïve attempt to remedy the failure of the previous naïve proposition.
In a reflection of Moscow’s calculus last year, many Russian experts were predicting an imminent crisis in Saudi-American ties. “For the Saudis, the Russian connection is part of a general diversification of their foreign policy away from overreliance on the United States,” wrote Carnegie’s Dmitry Trenin, citing stable oil prices as a shared interest of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
In addition to this expected drive towards diversification, Moscow seems to have overestimated the potential strategic gains of its alliance with Assad and Tehran. Obviously, President Putin was planning on having his cake and eating it too, and waiting for the favorable moment to make his move.
President Putin’s main mistake is that he expected from Iran and Syria much more than they are ready to offer. He now looks like an investor who has lost out and had to double down to reduce his losses. His air force reluctantly participated in bombing civilians around Aleppo last month in spite of his commitment to the “cessation of hostilities” deal. To his contacts in Washington, he seems to be having a real difficulty in keeping his commitments and satisfying his allies, who insist on doing what they want, regardless of Moscow’s limits and agenda.
At this moment, the Russian President would appear to be outmaneuvered by the Iranians. Yet, he cannot pull out or else he will lose all. The Russian military effort to enable Assad and Iran’s militias in Syria to control the north of the country could not even get them to control Aleppo, let alone Idlib. It was expected that by that time, the Iranians would be putting up pictures of Khomeini and Khamenei in all of Aleppo province, east and west, and potentially in Idlib city as well. Instead, the IRGC had to evacuate a record number of dead soldiers in boxes from Khan Toman. The political process to find a solution, on which Putin counted to regain his status in the world as both a warrior and a peacemaker, is going nowhere. While Putin is not focused on keeping Assad in power, Tehran considers removing him a red line. Assad is the one person Iran trusts to keep its bridge to the Eastern Mediterranean opened.
Putin may end up empty-handed in Syria. His original bet was to bolster Assad, preserve his interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, render Tehran a service, and turn into a broker during the diplomatic effort to reach a political solution there. Assad’s combat positions in the civil war improved only marginally, Iran is licking its wounds and replacing an increasing number of its IRGC fighters with militias from everywhere else, and there is no serious political process to give the Russian President the broker role he wished to play to gain relevance.
In both accounts, military action and diplomacy, the Russian move in Syria did not bring its perceived fruits to the Kremlin. Neither Iran nor Assad are doing what Moscow wants. Furthermore, last year’s window of opportunity to improve relations with the Gulf countries is long closed.
The end of the road for President Putin’s gambit in the Middle East is near. He still has an opportunity, however, to play a role in mediation between the Iranians and the GCC.
This mediation role should be based on the understanding that Iran should limit its external intervention and focus on building its economy. The GCC is ready to sign whatever commitment required from its members not to interfere in Iranian affairs. It simply does not. And it never said it would. Moreover, the GCC countries are ready to engage in investment in Iran the moment Tehran announces its verifiable withdrawal from regional countries. Arabs can take care of their own peacefully and constructively. Iran is not Arab.
Iran will never end its intervention without substantial pressure from whichever countries are willing to help. Moscow can play a constructive role in building an anti-terrorism coalition in the region, guaranteeing the security of the Gulf, and engaging all parties on normal trade and economic ties if it gets its allies in Tehran to behave exactly like any Arab Gulf country: No intervention in others’ affairs through proxies or directly.
This is how President Putin can be relevant in the Middle East. And this is how he can help lower the tension in the region.

Washington Debates a Not-So-Inevitable Policy Shift
Middle East Briefing/May 22/16
A fierce debate is underway inside the American foreign policy establishment over how to correct the Obama Administration’s terribly flawed Middle East policy, when the next tenant moves into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in January 2017.
Two “non-partisan” think tanks have produced reports on how Washington can salvage the Middle East/North Africa by ending the ongoing wars in Libya, Syria, and Iraq; blocking further instabilities in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Tunisia; and containing Iran’s growing regional imperial ambitions, which have been fueled by the P5+1 deal.
The Center for a New American Security, a relatively new think tank, issued a task force study on May 16, co-authored by Robert Kagan and James Rubin, calling for a much more assertive US stance throughout the Middle East. The report has the requisite bipartisan flavor to potentially serve as a guiding policy for either the Democrat or Republican candidate, now widely presumed to be Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, repectively. CNAS was co-founded by Kurt Campbell and Michelle Flournoy, who both served in the Obama Administration, but who are close advisers to Hillary Clinton (Flournoy is considered Clinton’s most likely choice as Secretary of Defense, and Campbell is a top contender, along with William Burns, to be Secretary of State in a Hillary Clinton Administration). The report was endorsed by other panel members, including three former Bush Administration officials: Eric Edelman, Stephen Hadley, and Robert Zoellick. Co-chair Kagan is married to another former top Clinton aide at the State Department, Victoria Nuland, who is still Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs.
“Extending American Power: Strategies to Expand U.S. Engagement in a Competitive World Order” was the outgrowth of a year-long series of private sessions. While focusing on other global challenges, including the re-emergence of Russia and the expansion of China, the report focused heavily on the Middle East, and made some recommendations for action that go beyond the limited engagement that has characterized President Obama’s eight years of failed efforts to bring stability to the Middle East.
The panel called for the ouster of President Bashar Assad as a precondition for ending the five-year Syrian war, the boosting of the Defense Department’s “arm, train, and protect” program for building a moderate Syrian opposition, and the creation of a no-fly zone in northern Syria to protect refugees and Syrian opposition fighters.
The Atlantic Council also produced a recent report on how to revamp US policy in the Middle East under the next President. That study, reflecting a similar bipartisan positioning, was co-chaired by former Bill Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright (also a top Hillary Clinton campaign policy adviser) and Stephen Hadley, who was National Security Advisor under George H.W. Bush. The principal author of that Atlantic Council report, Kenneth Pollack, wrote a detailed summary in the February 16, 2016 issue of the Council on Foreign Relation’s Foreign Affairs journal. He spelled out an overhaul of US Middle East policy, built upon combined military, diplomatic, and economic interventions to end the existing civil wars in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen, followed by a buildup of regional armed forces to maintain long-term stability.
Pollack warned that unless such increases in US engagement in stabilizing the region are undertaken soon, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Turkey are all likely to devolve into civil war.
More hawkish factions are putting a different proposition on the table for the next president: The P5+1 deal with Iran must be abrogated. This perspective was spelled out, in great detail, in the issue of the Weekly Standard dated May 23, 2016, by Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer who is now with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy.
Gerecht argued that the Obama Administration has empowered Iran to aggressively seek imperial advantage in the Middle East over pro-American states, out of concern for the nuclear weapons deal negotiated with Tehran by the P5+1 nations. That Iran deal, Gerecht warned, has hobbled any effective American challenge to Iran’s overt interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Yemen. So long as the United States refuses to take strong action against Tehran’s hybrid warfare operations throughout the region, out of fear of Iran breaking the nuclear deal, the “United States is partner to the Islamic Republic’s imperialism,” Gerecht wrote.
Gerecht, reflecting the view of an “anyone but Trump” faction of neo-conservatives, led by Weekly Standard publisher William Kristol, actually argued that Donald Trump is closer to the foreign policy outlook of Barack Obama than is Hillary Clinton.
When the New York Times Magazine recently published a lengthy profile of President Obama’s deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes, it caused a firestorm over Rhodes’ claims that the White House had conducted a successful information warfare campaign to dupe Congress and the American public into embracing the P5+1 deal with Iran—on fraudulent grounds.
That New York Times story and the backlash it triggered has become part of the conservative narrative for abandoning the Iran nuclear deal, in favor of a hardline pushback campaign against Iran’s regional schemes. Gerecht called for a new sanctions regime against Iran, based on the expanding Iranian ballistic missile program, in violation of existing United Nations sanctions.
This week, the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee convened hearings into the Rhodes revelations about the fraudulent selling of the P5+1 deal. Representative Jason Chaffetz, the Committee Chairman, called hearings which include an array of critics of the Iran deal, including a former national security aide to Vice President Dick Cheney, Michael Hannah; American Enterprise Institute Middle East specialist Michael Rubin; and Senator Tom Cotton.
Despite the bipartisan criticisms of President Obama’s Middle East policies, which have left the region even more chaotic and violent than when he came into office in January 2009, Washington sources caution that the chances of a total reversal of Obama’s courtship with Iran is unlikely.
Donald Trump, the presumed Republican Party nominee for president, has openly stated that the P5+1 deal was a “bad deal,” but that he will press to enforce it to American advantage. And, while the P5+1 deal was finalized after Clinton left her post as Secretary of State, she and her team, including one of her top foreign policy aides Wendy Sherman, were instrumental in years of secret negotiations with Tehran, leading up to the P5+1 “breakthrough.” She can hardly disown the agreement, given that one of her top assistants at the State Department, Jake Sullivan, made the initial secret contacts with Iranian officials in Oman, while Ahmadinejad was still President of Iran.
William Kristol’s efforts are attributed in Washington to several reasons, among them stopping both Trump and Clinton from winning the presidency. Kristol has been taking a leading public role in an effort to organize a third-party candidate to run on behalf of the Republican Party establishment, preferably a retired four-star general. Names that have been publicly floated include: General David Petraeus, General Stanley McChrystal, and General James Mattis. All three are experienced Middle East combat commanders and all three have voiced great skepticism about Iran’s role in the region.
Kristol has won the backing of a group of Republican Party conservative billionaires for his cause, and he has openly promoted the idea of depriving both Trump and Clinton of sufficient Electoral College votes to win the presidency. Under the Constitution, the House of Representatives would then choose the president.

The Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916)
Sources:Encyclopaedia Judaica.
The Sykes-Picot Agreement (officially the 1916 Asia Minor Agreement) was a secret agreement reached during World War I between the British and French governments pertaining to the partition of the Ottoman Empire among the Allied Powers. Russia was also privy to the discussions.
The Middle East per the Sykes-Picot Agreement.
The first round of discussions took place in London on November 23, 1915 with the French government represented by François-Georges Picot, a professional diplomat with extensive experience in the Levant, and the British delegation led by Sir Arthur Nicolson. The second round of discussions took place December 21 with the British now represented by Sir Mark Sykes, a leading expert on the East.
Having juxtaposed the desiderata of all the parties concerned - namely the British, the French and the Arabs - the two statesmen worked out a compromise solution. The terms of the partition agreement were specified in a letter dated May 9, 1916, which Paul Cambon, French ambassador in London, addressed to Sir Edward Grey, British foreign secretary. These terms were ratified in a return letter from Grey to Cambon on May 16 and the agreement became official in an exchange of notes among the three Allied Powers on April 26 and May 23, 1916.
According to the agreement, France was to exercise direct control over Cilicia, the coastal strip of Syria, Lebanon and the greater part of Galilee, up to the line stretching from north of Acre to the northwest corner of the Sea of Galilee ("Blue Zone"). Eastward, in the Syrian hinterland, an Arab state was to be created under French protection ("Area A"). Britain was to exercise control over southern Mesopotamia ("Red Zone"), as well as the territory around the Acre-Haifa bay in the Mediterranean with rights to build a railway from there to Baghdad. The territory east of the Jordan River and the Negev desert, south of the line stretching from Gaza to the Dead Sea, was allocated to an Arab state under British protection ("Area B"). South of France's "blue zone," in the area covering the Sanjak of Jerusalem and extending southwards toward the line running approximately from Gaza to the Dead Sea, was to be under international administration ("Brown Zone").
In the years that followed, the Sykes-Picot Agreement became the target of bitter criticism both in France and in England. Lloyd George referred to it as an "egregious" and a "foolish" document. Zionist aspirations were also passed over and this lapse was severely criticized by William R. Hall, head of the Intelligence Department of the British Admiralty, who pointed out that the Jews have "a strong material, and a very strong political interest in the future of the country and that in the Brown area the question of Zionism… [ought] to be considered."
Areas of Palestine per the agreement
The agreement was officially abrogated by the Allies at the San Remo Conference in April 1920, when the Mandate for Palestine was conferred upon Britain.
Text of Sykes-Picot Agreement
It is accordingly understood between the French and British governments:
That France and Great Britain are prepared to recognize and protect an independent Arab states or a confederation of Arab states (a) and (b) marked on the annexed map, under the suzerainty of an Arab chief. That in area (a) France, and in area (b) great Britain, shall have priority of right of enterprise and local loans. That in area (a) France, and in area (b) great Britain, shall alone supply advisers or foreign functionaries at the request of the Arab state or confederation of Arab states.
That in the blue area France, and in the red area great Britain, shall be allowed to establish such direct or indirect administration or control as they desire and as they may think fit to arrange with the Arab state or confederation of Arab states.
That in the brown area there shall be established an international administration, the form of which is to be decided upon after consultation with Russia, and subsequently in consultation with the other allies, and the representatives of the Shariff of Mecca.
That great Britain be accorded (1) the ports of Haifa and acre, (2) guarantee of a given supply of water from the Tigres and Euphrates in area (a) for area (b). His majesty's government, on their part, undertake that they will at no time enter into negotiations for the cession of Cyprus to any third power without the previous consent of the French government.
That Alexandretta shall be a free port as regards the trade of the British empire, and that there shall be no discrimination in port charges or facilities as regards British shipping and British goods; that there shall be freedom of transit for British goods through Alexandretta and by railway through the blue area, or (b) area, or area (a); and there shall be no discrimination, direct or indirect, against British goods on any railway or against British goods or ships at any port serving the areas mentioned.
That Haifa shall be a free port as regards the trade of France, her dominions and protectorates, and there shall be no discrimination in port charges or facilities as regards French shipping and French goods. There shall be freedom of transit for French goods through Haifa and by the British railway through the brown area, whether those goods are intended for or originate in the blue area, area (a), or area (b), and there shall be no discrimination, direct or indirect, against french goods on any railway, or against french goods or ships at any port serving the areas mentioned.
That in area (a) the Baghdad railway shall not be extended southwards beyond Mosul, and in area (b) northwards beyond Samarra, until a railway connecting Baghdad and Aleppo via the Euphrates valley has been completed, and then only with the concurrence of the two governments.
That great Britain has the right to build, administer, and be sole owner of a railway connecting Haifa with area (b), and shall have a perpetual right to transport troops along such a line at all times. It is to be understood by both governments that this railway is to facilitate the connection of Baghdad with Haifa by rail, and it is further understood that, if the engineering difficulties and expense entailed by keeping this connecting line in the brown area only make the project unfeasible, that the french government shall be prepared to consider that the line in question may also traverse the Polgon Banias Keis Marib Salkhad tell Otsda Mesmie before reaching area (b).
For a period of twenty years the existing Turkish customs tariff shall remain in force throughout the whole of the blue and red areas, as well as in areas (a) and (b), and no increase in the rates of duty or conversions from ad valorem to specific rates shall be made except by agreement between the two powers.
There shall be no interior customs barriers between any of the above mentioned areas. The customs duties leviable on goods destined for the interior shall be collected at the port of entry and handed over to the administration of the area of destination.
It shall be agreed that the french government will at no time enter into any negotiations for the cession of their rights and will not cede such rights in the blue area to any third power, except the Arab state or confederation of Arab states, without the previous agreement of his majesty's government, who, on their part, will give a similar undertaking to the french government regarding the red area.
The British and French government, as the protectors of the Arab state, shall agree that they will not themselves acquire and will not consent to a third power acquiring territorial possessions in the Arabian peninsula, nor consent to a third power installing a naval base either on the east coast, or on the islands, of the red sea. This, however, shall not prevent such adjustment of the Aden frontier as may be necessary in consequence of recent Turkish aggression.
The negotiations with the Arabs as to the boundaries of the Arab states shall be continued through the same channel as heretofore on behalf of the two powers.
It is agreed that measures to control the importation of arms into the Arab territories will be considered by the two governments.
I have further the honor to state that, in order to make the agreement complete, his majesty's government are proposing to the Russian government to exchange notes analogous to those exchanged by the latter and your excellency's government on the 26th April last. Copies of these notes will be communicated to your excellency as soon as exchanged. I would also venture to remind your excellency that the conclusion of the present agreement raises, for practical consideration, the question of claims of Italy to a share in any partition or rearrangement of turkey in Asia, as formulated in Article 9 of the agreement of the 26th April, 1915, between Italy and the allies.
His Majesty's Government further consider that the Japanese government should be informed of the arrangements now concluded.
Sources:Encyclopaedia Judaica. © 2008 The Gale Group. All Rights Reserved.
The Avalon Project and Middle East Maps [the maps are not in the original document]
L. Stein, The Balfour Declaration (1961), 237–69, index; E. Kedourie, England and the Middle East (1956), 29–66, 102–41; J. Nevakivi, Britain, France and the Arab Middle East (1969), 35–44, index; C. Sykes, Two Studies in Virtue (1953), index; H.F. Frischwasser-Ra'ana, The Frontiers of a Nation (1955), 5–73; I. Friedman, The Question of Palestine, 1914 – 1918. British-Jewish-Arab Relations (1973, 19922), 97–118; idem, Palestine: A Twice Promised Land? The British, the Arabs and Zionism, 1915 – 1920 (2000), 47–60.
 

The convenient scapegoat of the Sykes-Picot Agreement
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/May 22/16
One of the favorite tropes in the Middle East about why the region is so politically unstable is to blame the Sykes-Picot Agreement signed exactly 100 years ago, in which Britain and France settled on how they would partition the territory of the Ottoman Empire after their eventual defeat in WW1.
Sykes-Picot is alleged to be the reason why between Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia there exist straight-line borders. Even though these borders clearly do not map at all well to local demographic realities, as when, for example, local tribes in the borderlands between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, or Iraq and Syria would have owned lands on both sides of the border and would have moved freely between these lands.
The theory is that by drawing up these “unnatural” borders, for their own imperial and administrative purposes and with complete lack of interests for the local populations, the colonial powers set up the stage for the unstable internal politics in all these countries, and, consequently, the volatility of the region.
A somewhat inconvenient fact to this theory is that the respective delineation of the spheres of French and British influence in the Sykes-Picot Agreement, and the eventual borders of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan when they gained independence after WW2, do not correspond.
But leaving that aside, the Arabs in the region have the right to be aggrieved at the Agreement, because it rescinded on all the territorial promises Britain had made to encourage them to join forces against the Ottomans. The problem is what to do with such a grievance.
Sykes-Picot is the perfect scapegoat, used over the years by political leaders to justify and excuse their own mismanagement and corruption
In the Middle East, Sykes-Picot has come to represent two things:
1) the ultimate example of Western colonial meddling for which all the region’s economic and political impediments today can be blamed; and for peddlers of radical Islamism, 2) the ultimate assault of Western Crusaders and Zionists against Islam, because it paved the way to Britain establishing the Mandate of Palestine which they would eventually grant for the establishment of the State of Israel.
But again, there are some pesky facts in the way of this neat theory. Unlike in Africa, where countries and local populations have every right to rile against the legacy of Western colonialism and its abhorrent history of slavery and exploitation, the Arab world has, throughout this period, been dominated not by “foreign”, Western empires, but rather by the Muslim Ottoman Empire.
The Ottoman Empire
And throughout this period, the Ottoman Empire was also the de jure and de facto Islamic Caliphate. The three decades of Western, League of Nations mandated administration, saw minimal asset stripping in the region, and substantial investment, especially in infrastructure, education and, inevitably, the oil extraction industry. Assets which have paved the way for prosperity for these countries for decades after they have gained independence.
Those assets were not squandered by Western Crusaders and Zionists. The reason why the public administration in these countries has decayed to braking-point over the recent decades, why the economies have stagnated, why the repressive regimes of Saddam Hussain and the al-Assad family have come to dominate the region, and went on to wage war against their neighbors in Iran, Kuwait and Israel, have next to nothing to do with Sykes-Picot.
The fundamental problem is that the people of these countries have failed to keep their political leaders accountable, and to demand that they be governed and administered effectively and fairly. And Sykes-Picot is the perfect scapegoat, used over the years by political leaders to justify and excuse their own mismanagement and corruption.
The situation in which the Middle East found itself in 1948 when the mandates gained independence was much better than the situation in which Europe found itself that year. These countries had reasonably well educated populations and ample natural resources, healthy infrastructure and public services.
By contrast, Europe lay in ruins – a victim of its own follies. The difference is that Europeans knew they had no one to blame for their situation but themselves. They dusted themselves off after WW2, foreswore stupid nationalism, and knuckled down to rebuild their lives, their societies, and their countries.
And in the Middle East? Everything that went well was because of how wonderful they were and everything that went badly was someone else’s fault. Specifically, Israel, America, Britain or France. The mess in the Middle East today is not a consequence of Sykes-Picot. It is a consequence of seven decades of Arabs refusing to assume responsibility for their own problems.