LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 05/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
And the one who sent me is with me; he has not left me alone, for I always do what is pleasing to him.’ As he was saying these things, many believed in him.”
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/25-30: “They said to him, ‘Who are you?’ Jesus said to them, ‘Why do I speak to you at all? I have much to say about you and much to condemn; but the one who sent me is true, and I declare to the world what I have heard from him.’ They did not understand that he was speaking to them about the Father. So Jesus said, ‘When you have lifted up the Son of Man, then you will realize that I am he, and that I do nothing on my own, but I speak these things as the Father instructed me. And the one who sent me is with me; he has not left me alone, for I always do what is pleasing to him.’ As he was saying these things, many believed in him.”

By faith Joseph, at the end of his life, made mention of the exodus of the Israelites and gave instructions about his burial.”
Letter to the Hebrews 11/17-22: “By faith Abraham, when put to the test, offered up Isaac. He who had received the promises was ready to offer up his only son, of whom he had been told, ‘It is through Isaac that descendants shall be named after you.’ He considered the fact that God is able even to raise someone from the dead and figuratively speaking, he did receive him back. By faith Isaac invoked blessings for the future on Jacob and Esau.By faith Jacob, when dying, blessed each of the sons of Joseph, ‘bowing in worship over the top of his staff.’By faith Joseph, at the end of his life, made mention of the exodus of the Israelites and gave instructions about his burial.”

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 05/16
Hezbollah Fails to Convince Lebanese Government to Condemn Terrorist Classification/Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al Awsat/March 04/16
Is the Saudi, Lebanese relationship gone for good/Esperance Ghanem/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
After terrorist label, what is GCC’s next move against Hezbollah/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
Prevent chaos for the sake of Lebanon and Arabs/Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
Report: Hezbollah prepares for 'biggest war ever' with Israel/Ynetnews/March 04/16
Hezbollah’s Shiite catch,“Hezbollah will not be destroyed; but it will change”/Hanin Ghaddar/Now Lebanon/March 04/16
What if the Syrian truce ends/Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
Saudis ready to give Syrian rebels missiles against Russian warplanes and tanks/DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 04/16
Opinion: When the Question About Iran Has a Japanese Answer/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al AWsat/March 04/16
Egypt: with Turkey or Iran/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
The president’s best is not good enough for Egypt/Mohammed Nosseir/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
The unison among Iran’s political parties on Syria/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
Palestinians: The Right Time to Take Big Steps/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/March 04/16
Egyptian MP Ousted From Parliament In Normalization Controversy After Meeting With Israeli Ambassador/Special Dispatch/MEMRI/March 04/16
Why canceled Arab League summit should worry Israelis/Akiva Eldar/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
Why high inflation may return to Iran/Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
As economic crisis continues, will Kurdish peshmerga desert/Shelly Kittleson/Al-Monitor/March 04/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on March 05/16
Hezbollah Fails to Convince Lebanese Government to Condemn Terrorist Classification
Hizbullah's top lawmaker MP Mohammed Raad Accuses Saudi of Obstructing Presidential Vote, Ties to Bombings
Is the Saudi, Lebanese relationship gone for good?
After terrorist label, what is GCC’s next move against Hezbollah?
Prevent chaos for the sake of Lebanon and Arabs
Report: Hezbollah prepares for 'biggest war ever' with Israel
Hezbollah’s Shiite catch,“Hezbollah will not be destroyed; but it will change”
Doctors, Medical Professionals Alarmed by Trash Crisis Impact
Hariri Visits Bekaa: Keeping Country without President Not a Constitutional Right
Attack on Syria rebel group in Golan could pose headache for Israel
Major Busts in Syria, Lebanon Shed Light on Captagon Trade
U.S. after GCC Decision on Hizbullah: Nobody Wants New Conflict
Decentralization Plan to Resolve Waste Crisis on Right Track

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 05/16
Record 1.25 mln migrants in EU in 2015
Displaced Syrians remain on Turkish border despite truce: MSF
April Vote in Syria 'Provocative, Unrealistic', Says Hollande
Rebel-Held Town East of Syria Capital to Get Aid, Says U.N.
Air Raids Hit Syria Rebel Bastion despite Truce
Denmark Ready to Send F-16s, Troops to Fight IS in Syria, Iraq
Syrians Use Truce to Resume Friday Protests
UN: Destruction in Iraq’s Ramadi ‘staggering’
N. Korea Leader Orders Nuclear Arsenal on 'Standby'
Gunmen Kill 16, including Indian Nuns, at Yemen Care Home
Israel Demolishes West Bank Homes, Displacing 36 Palestinians
Iranians with Mouths Sewn Shut Renew Protest over 'Jungle' Demolition
Egyptian Student to be Deported from U.S. over Trump Threat

Links From Jihad Watch Site for March 05/16
Canada: Muslim who called killing Jews “sacred duty of jihad” was on Windsor Multicultural Council welcoming Muslim “refugees”.
Italy’s Senate Speaker: “We must reject suspicion and resentment against Islam”.
Germany: Convert to Islam “slipped into radicalism,” became Islamic State “storm trooper”.
Germany: Mob of 30 Muslim migrants chase girls through shopping center before clashing with police.
Oberlin College president won’t fire prof who spews anti-Semitic hate, invokes freedom of speech.
Yemen: Islamic jihadists storm old people’s home, murder four nuns, eight residents and a guard.
Toronto Star now calls the Islamic State “Daesh” instead of “the Islamic State” or “ISIS”.
Southern Poverty Law Center blames San Bernardino jihad massacre on Pamela Geller.
Video: Robert Spencer on Hillary Clinton’s war against the freedom of speech.
Iran accuses the U.S. of breaching the nuke deal.
UN lists acts of terrorism, leaves out all mention of Israeli victims of “Palestinian” stabbing attacks.
Time Magazine blames America’s crumbling infrastructure on “Islamophobia”.
Southern Poverty Law Center blames San Bernardino jihad massacre on Pamela Geller.
Vox whines that “anti-Islam Muslims keep getting promoted as ‘experts'”.
Germany probing Islamic State link to policeman’s stabbing.
An exchange with a “trainee journalist” hunting for “anti-Muslim rhetoric”.
Germany: Two Muslim migrants arrested for sexually assaulting teen girls at pool where migrants molested girls before.

Hezbollah Fails to Convince Lebanese Government to Condemn Terrorist Classification
Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al Awsat/March 04/16
Beirut-Lebanon’s Hezbollah has failed yesterday to convince the Lebanese government to condemn the Gulf and Arab stance, which classified Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Thus, putting Tammam Salam’s government at the edge of the cliff according to what one of the ministers told Asharq Al-Awsat. Lebanese ministers from March 14th party found themselves stuck between facing Hezbollah by resigning from the government, which leads to the fall of another institution in the country that is still suffering from presidential vacancy, or by backing Hezbollah in facing the Arab and Gulf consensus again. According to what ministerial source told Asharq Al-Awsat, despite Hezbollah’s loss in the governmental consensus on Thursday; as it failed in issuing an official declaration condemning the Arab and Gulf decision, yet the Lebanese government is living a state of confusion as a result of its fear from any uncontrollable situation if it decided to resign and halt talks with Hezbollah or continue covering up Hezbollah’s actions in the region. At the time when the Political and Strategic Analyst Sami Nader sees that the Lebanese government is confused between resigning or covering up Hezbollah’s acts, the Minister of Social Affairs, Rashid Derbas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the PM is not willing to resign anytime soon. The latter added: “We are concerned today more than ever since Lebanon is no longer living under the security umbrella and the Lebanese parties are now obliged to stop talking and provoking.” Moreover, regarding the steps that should be taken by the government following the Gulf decision, Derbas asked whether the government is capable of facing Hezbollah. He also said that everybody knows that Lebanon cannot face Hezbollah neither can the regional powers, and Derbas confirmed that his government is against armament and with democracy and institutions’ activation. Administrative Development Minister Nabil de Freij talked with Asharq Al-Awsat about a considerable disagreement with Hezbollah, which acts as a statelet within a state, in addition to interfering in the affairs of other countries, both politically and militarily. He added that the Lebanese government has no other choice but to deal with this reality so as to maintain the stability of Lebanon.

Hizbullah's top lawmaker MP Mohammed Raad Accuses Saudi of Obstructing Presidential Vote, Ties to Bombings
Naharnet/March 04/16/Hizbullah's top lawmaker MP Mohammed Raad on Friday accused Saudi Arabia of “obstructing the presidential vote” in Lebanon and of being involved in the deadly bomb attacks that rocked several Lebanese regions in recent years. “Some are criticizing us for raising the voice in the face of the Saudi regime, which has not left any door open for reconciliation, after it obstructed the presidential vote in our country through vetoing the choice of the Lebanese,” Raad added, reiterating the Hizbullah allegation that Riyadh had vetoed the election of Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun as president.Change and Reform and Hizbullah, who have been boycotting the electoral sessions, argue that Aoun is the candidate most eligible to become president given the size of his parliamentary bloc and his strong influence in the Christian community. The rival March 14 camp meanwhile accuses the two parties of obstructing the presidential election through their boycott of electoral sessions.Separately, Raad echoed Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's remarks that Saudi Arabia had played a role in the bombings that targeted Lebanese regions in recent years. He said those who staged the bomb attacks “received phone calls from numbers in the Saudi kingdom.”“This regime has also sent car bombs and explosive devices to target civilians and pilgrims in Iraq through its army of takfiri terrorists,” Raad charged. “They have also destroyed and weakened Syria and divided its people … We are not launching false accusations against anyone and we are not attacking anyone, but it is our right to tell the truth to people,” the MP added. His remarks come amid unprecedented tensions between Hizbullah and Saudi Arabia, which has launched a series of measures against both Lebanon and the Iran-backed party. The Saudi measures started on February 19 when the Saudi foreign ministry announced that the kingdom was halting around $4 billion in military aid to the Lebanese army and security forces. The kingdom later slapped sanctions on individuals and firms accused of ties to Hizbullah and advised its citizens against travel to Lebanon while urging those already in the country to leave it. Saudi Arabia has also pushed the Gulf Cooperation Council and the council of Arab interior ministers to describe Hizbullah as a “terrorist” organization. Saudi Arabia has linked its measures to Lebanon's refusal to join the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in condemning attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran last month, and alleged Hizbullah "terrorist acts against Arab and Muslim nations."The Saudi-backed GCC resolution also accused Hizbullah of "terrorist acts and incitement in Syria, Yemen and in Iraq."

Is the Saudi, Lebanese relationship gone for good?
Esperance Ghanem/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
BEIRUT — There seems to be more to Saudi Arabia's political assault on Lebanon than first meets the eye.
As previously reported, the kingdom recently canceled its long-awaited, $4 billion arms deal to support the Lebanese army and security forces and is making a comprehensive review of its relationship with Lebanon. Also, numerous Gulf states have joined Saudi Arabia in warning their citizens not to travel to Lebanon and to leave Lebanese soil. Riyadh cited the actions of Lebanese Foreign Affairs Minister Gibran Bassil — head of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement, an ally of Hezbollah — during a Jan. 10 ministerial meeting of the Arab League in Cairo. Bassil declined to condemn the early January attack on the Saudi Arabian Embassy and consulate in Iran. However, Lebanese security sources told Al-Monitor that several reasons underlie the Saudi escalation. The sources described the Saudi campaign against Lebanon as fierce. The first objective of this campaign, they said, is to deliver Hezbollah a heavy blow in its own stronghold. Saudi Arabia is responding to Hezbollah's support for the Houthis in the ongoing war in Yemen, which the kingdom blames, in part, for its failure to reach its military goals there.
The Saudis aim to push Lebanon's March 14 Coalition to apply pressure and turn public opinion against Hezbollah and its allies, most notably Bassil's Free Patriotic Movement — especially regarding Hezbollah’s interventions in Yemen and Syria and its influence in Lebanon's government, the sources said.
The same sources explained that 11 months after Riyadh launched Operation Decisive Storm against the Houthis in Yemen, the battle doesn't seem to be headed in Saudi Arabia's favor. In addition, the European Parliament accused Riyadh of targeting Yemeni civilians with airstrikes and called for a ban on the export of arms to Saudi Arabia. Many people believe Saudi Arabia hopes to recoup some of its losses in Yemen by ditching the $4 billion weapons deal with Lebanon. Lebanon's political and security instability is a pressure point on Hezbollah, which is preoccupied with the war in Syria and the permanent Israeli threat. According to the sources, any sectarian strife in Lebanon will not be in Hezbollah’s best interest, especially as it has been classified as a terrorist group by part of the international community.
A Lebanese diplomatic source told Al-Monitor that last month, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia canceled the residency permits of more than 1,000 Lebanese nationals, mostly Shiites and Christians. This news also spread on several Lebanese media outlets. The Saudi decision will also affect more than 250 Lebanese companies operating in Saudi Arabia, which will be given three months to liquidate their business activities. This is while Saudi Arabia has already notified 90 families that it will deport them, and classified four companies on the terrorist list because of their relations with Hezbollah.
In this context, Lebanese daily As-Safir quoted Feb. 24 the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Awad Asiri, as saying to France Presse that the Lebanese will not be deported if the Lebanese government takes certain measures. He called the government to “wisely and bravely” fix the mistake a particular government party — without naming it — had made against the kingdom.
Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait applied similar procedures against Lebanese residents, according to the same source, confirming that these countries decided to halt their banking activities with Lebanon and suspend their partnerships in the Lebanese banks or in their national banks with branches in Lebanon. The source also indicated these countries froze the assets and bank accounts of Lebanese Christian and Shiite businessmen.
Other Lebanese press reports talked about 10 measures Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries intend to implement: withdraw the deposits from the Lebanese Central Bank; call on Saudis to withdraw their deposits from Lebanese banks; ask Saudis to stop investments in Lebanon and stop any ongoing investment projects; stop issuing new Saudi entry visas to Lebanese; suspend banking transactions and transfers between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon; suspend flights between both countries; revoke the residence permits of the Lebanese residing in Saudi Arabia and expel them collectively; close the Saudi market in the face of Lebanese exports and stop imports to the Lebanese market; cut the diplomatic ties between both countries, close the Saudi embassy in Beirut, expel the Lebanese ambassador to Saudi Arabia and close the Lebanese embassy in Saudi Arabia; and finally, spread these measures in all GCC countries, as it turned out these countries support Saudi Arabia and are ready to follow suit regarding Lebanon.
The source explained that another undeclared trigger of Saudi Arabia’s campaign against Lebanon includes the situation in Syria, in light of a fragile cease-fire that supposedly started Feb. 27 under US-Russian auspices. Saudis are trying to achieve field gains before the March 7 start of talks between the Syrian regime and the Syrian opposition, which would allow the Saudi-backed opposition to achieve gains tipping the negotiation terms in its favor. Therefore, Saudi Arabia is seeking to form Arab-Turkish alliance forces to participate in the ground operations that the kingdom intends to launch in Syria, specifically in the north. Preparations have begun for these operations, and Turkey put its Incirlik Air Base at the forces' disposal. The source added that a potential Saudi ground invasion of Syria requires a reconsideration of the Lebanese military border procedures, given that the evolution of the battles in northern Syria will put pressure on Lebanon as a result of the displacement of refugees and the movement of insurgents. The source said Saudi Arabia thinks that by invoking the Arab consensus, it can pressure the Lebanese army and government to coordinate with the Arab-Turkish alliance forces, in which case Lebanon would find itself in an embarrassing situation, since Hezbollah is deployed on its borders with Syria — at least the eastern borders. On a related note, the same source revealed that Saudi ambassador Asiri called on Sunni cells to organize meetings in the Palestinian camps. This is especially true in Ain al-Hilweh, where Palestinian factions announced a state of alert in southern Lebanon, Beirut and the north, to prepare for any action that may be required of them against the Lebanese government's policy and any potential armed deployment of Hezbollah. The source said only one of two scenarios might put an end to the Saudi madness. The first would be to give Lebanon a time limit to elect a president while giving the kingdom final say on the choice and of the new Sunni prime minister, in such a way that both premierships would be deemed affiliated with Saudi Arabia. This solution might further add to Saudi Arabia’s influence over Lebanon on one hand and undercut Hezbollah’s internal influence on the other. In the second scenario, the United States and the international community would have to exert sufficient pressure to halt the kingdom's campaign, which has raised international concerns about maintaining Lebanon’s stability. An international consensus was reached to ensure that stability based on several considerations, most notably keeping Lebanon a safe environment for the 1.5 million Syrian refugees in its territories so they don’t head for Europe and then the United States.

After terrorist label, what is GCC’s next move against Hezbollah?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
Iranian officials and media have condemned the recent decision by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to designate the Lebanese group Hezbollah a terrorist organization.GCC Secretary-General Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al Zayani said March 2 that the designation was the result of Hezbollah’s “hostile acts” in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. He also accused Hezbollah of trying to recruit youths in the GCC countries.The spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Hossein Jaber Ansari, condemned the GCC statement. Ansari said Hezbollah “gave Arabs and Muslims the first victory in the history of anti-Zionist conflict and became the leading symbol of resistance against Zionist occupation.” Deputy Foreign Ministry for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that people who designate Hezbollah a terrorist organization “intentionally or unintentionally are targeting Lebanon’s security.” He called Hezbollah the “most effective resistance movement” and said that ignoring Israeli crimes “is the latest mistake that is not in the benefit of stability and security in the region.” The GCC decision is just the latest move led by Saudi Arabia to distance itself from Lebanon and Hezbollah, which is the most influential force in the fractured country. After withdrawing a $3 billion aid offer to the Lebanese army, Saudi Arabia and a number of other GCC countries banned their citizens from traveling to Lebanon. Much of the recent Hezbollah-Saudi animosity is rooted in the Syrian civil war, where Hezbollah forces — in addition to the Iranian and Syrian armies — are fighting against Syrian groups backed by Saudi Arabia and other GCC states.Iranian Students’ News Agency wrote, “Saudi’s propaganda, political and economic war against Lebanon will not end here.” The article said that the GCC decision more than anything else has made Israel happy, and that it is possible that it is a precursor to a new military attack by Israel against Hezbollah.
An article in Raja News quoting Arab media wrote that the decision by the GCC was in actuality a Saudi decision that was made without holding a meeting by the GCC member states. The article believes that the GCC’s next action will be to expel Lebanese Shiites from GCC countries, which — according to the article — would involve hundreds of thousands of people. Tasnim News Agency spoke with Lebanese analyst Nasser Ghandeel, who said the recent decisions by the GCC are meant to provoke Hezbollah into a direct conflict. He said that Hezbollah would not be dragged into a conflict with the GCC, and its main focus would remain Israel and fighting terrorism (Iranian media refers to armed groups fighting against the government in Syria as terrorists).
Javan newspaper, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote that after the nuclear deal between Iran and the six world powers, it was clear that the next target would be Hezbollah. “It’s not been two months since the implementation of the nuclear deal, and already the attacks by Saudi Arabia and its Arab and Western allies against Lebanese Hezbollah have increased in an unprecedented way,” the article stated. Iranian media has given extensive coverage to regional officials and media who have condemned the GCC decision to call Hezbollah a terrorist organization. The Ansar Allah movement in Yemen, which is often referred to as the Houthis, called the GCC decision “free service to the tyrant Zionist regime.” Mehr News published the Palestinian group Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine’s condemnation of the GCC decision. Its statement read, “How could a party that defends Palestinian ideals and the interests of the Arab world be a terrorist group?” Lebanese politician Suleiman Franjieh called the decision by the GCC “unfortunate” and said that Hezbollah is “a resistance force and has resulted in the pride of Arabs and Lebanese.”

Prevent chaos for the sake of Lebanon and Arabs
Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
Amid recent measures taken by Gulf countries against Lebanon, the government has been incompetent in addressing deteriorating relations between Beirut and Riyadh. Such ties were always brotherly, yet hundreds of Lebanese working in the Gulf are now worried about their fate. Lebanese people fear economic, social and political repercussions as their government’s attempts to contain the situation have failed. We must not lecture or claim to have magical solutions. If we do not contain the crisis as soon as possible, chaos in Lebanon will escalate. Some parties have warned that the excessive Gulf measures will facilitate Iranian domination of Lebanon. However, Lebanese people’s anger toward Hezbollah, the party that caused the crisis, represents a referendum against Iranian hegemony.
Reviews
There must be an urgent review of governmental and political work in Lebanon before someone commits a new folly and increases tensions with the Gulf. Nevertheless, this does not guarantee protection for Lebanon from the crisis’s repercussions. There must be an urgent review of governmental and political work in Lebanon before someone commits a new folly and increases tensions with the Gulf. Gulf countries must also review the measures they have taken, and consider what may happen if they continue to pressure a country that is on the verge of collapse. If these reviews are not carried out quickly, for the sake of Lebanese and Gulf interests, the crisis will escalate and serve the interests of those who want to exploit it against Lebanon and the Arabs.

Report: Hezbollah prepares for 'biggest war ever' with Israel
Ynetnews/March 04/16
Sources tell Foreign Policy that the group has developed a new level of military organization, the ability to capture and hold Israeli towns, accurate guided missiles, and equipment that could target Israel's air force and navy. Hezbollah believes it can bring any future war into Israeli territory, according to a report published Thursday in Foreign Affairs that cites “sources close to the party”. “It will not look like the 2006 war at all,” a source told Lebanese journalist Nour Samaha. Another said that “Israel’s biggest concern is over Hezbollah’s experience in Syria, as it now has the experience to be offensive rather than just defensive.”While more than 1,000 Hezbollah fighters have died in the Syrian quagmire, Samaha notes that the group’s military campaign means “it has also gained a level of tactical experience and weaponry that has made it a far more threatening force”. An unnamed source told Samaha that the Syrian fighting led Hezbollah “to develop a sophisticated command-and-control structure, including advanced telecommunications networks, the use of drones for reconnaissance, and the ability to maintain long supply line” – all of which the group hopes it can use effectively against Israel. Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal has been allegedly upgraded as well, writes Samaha. The article reports claims that the group now has “tactical ballistic missiles, Scud missiles, Fateh-110 Iranian missiles, and M-600 missiles, a Syrian modified version of the Fateh-110.” Jeffrey White, a defense analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is quoted as saying that Hezbollah can now use guided munitions to hit targets throughout Israel with accuracy, “including command posts, airfields, and major economic targets”. This alleged capability was recently touted by the group’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, as a way to strike Haifa’s chemical plant and kill thousands. What’s more, White said the group apparently possesses sophisticated air-defense systems and naval cruise missiles that could target the IAF and Israeli oil platforms. Samaha reiterates reports that Hezbollah is not imminently seeking war – partly because of political considerations in Lebanon. Nevertheless, she recognizes the inherent instability in the border region where so many conflicting interests compete, pointing to two Hezbollah attacks in the Shebaa area – planting an IED near a military base in January and firing missiles at an IDF patrol in 2015 – as evidence that Shebaa is “the soft underbelly of Israel’s security” and a likely future flashpoint. “What will happen, however, is getting more difficult to predict by the day,” she writes.

Hezbollah’s Shiite catch,“Hezbollah will not be destroyed; but it will change”
Hanin Ghaddar/Now Lebanon/March 04/16
“Hezbollah is transforming. It has to change, because we are changing,” says Karim, with the authority of an accomplished expert. Although he is still 18 years old, Karim has already trained and fought with Hezbollah in Syria, gotten wounded and left the party a few weeks after his injury. His involvement in Syria’s war, in addition to the fact that he’s lived all his life in the heart of the southern suburbs of Beirut, makes him look and sound much older than his real age. His familiarity with the nuances of life there, and acute observations on how the party and the community are changing, makes it very hard to argue with him.
Karim was injured in Syria a couple of years ago and had to stay for a while in his hometown in the South. “I had to go hide because my mom didn’t know I was in Syria, and I couldn’t let her see me injured like that.” But his mom eventually found out, and, of course, flipped. “She actually attacked a Hezbollah official in our village when he congratulated her on my injury,” he cracks up laughing. Karim – and his friend Rasha who joined in our discussion – said that things have changed significantly in the past two years. People aren’t leaving the party because they don’t believe in “Resistance” anymore. He left because he was treated with indifference, like another number or body to dispense with. She left earlier – three years ago – simply, because she needed to breathe. She craved freedom on a personal level.
Are the GCC declarations or Saudi Arabia’s escalations worrisome? Not for Hezbollah. “If anything, Hezbollah is relieved. They don’t have to pretend anymore,” Karim says. “They have their own stronger state. Why would they worry about the Lebanese state?”In a way, between the GCC declaring Hezbollah a terrorist organization and the US increasing sanctions on the party’s sources of income, Hezbollah seems to be unconcerned and ready for any conflict these pressures could produce. Nasrallah’s recent speech carried serious accusations toward Saudi Arabia and stressed Hezbollah’s determination to continue its regional role as a military force.
Hezbollah knows that these measures will only weaken the Lebanese state and their opponents in the March 14 camp. Their control over Lebanon’s institutions and Lebanese decisions will be made much easier. If March 14 decides to confront; Hezbollah still has the arms and will take over. And if March 14 decides not to confront, well, Hezbollah is already taking over. All external efforts to weaken Hezbollah have strengthened its popular support and given the party’s leadership more power within its community. Wars, sectarian conflicts, Israeli aggression, all made the community gather more tightly around its only protector and surrender their fears to them. “Hezbollah will not be destroyed; but it will change, and we see it happening today more than ever,” Rasha says. She refers to the early days of Hezbollah when Sheikh Abbas al-Mousawi was the Secretary General. “They (Hezbollah) used to be more hostile and intimidating back then. Throwing acid on unveiled women was an acceptable practice, and they followed the regulations of the Islamic State by the book.”
Today, loud music in the streets of Dahiyeh, tattoo parlors and other non-Islamic lifestyle practices are becoming more and more acceptable. “Hezbollah has the capacity to force its will on the Lebanese people in general, but they cannot oppress the Shiites. Without the support of the community, they can’t recruit fighters, impose war decisions or even protect their assets,” Rasha adds. “The main factor that’d bring change to Hezbollah and its community is the increasing class differences that are becoming more apparent in Dahiyeh today,” she insists. Karim agrees, adding that the stark disparities in the standards of living are raising serious discontent among people. “Most of the young folks in Dahiyeh do not have cars or proper access to public transportation. However, most Hezbollah officials’ sons are driving brand new expensive cars. We see this every day. Their houses, cars, clothes etc… are all in our faces every single time we go out.”It is still immature to talk about serious dissent against Hezbollah, which is still the strongest and most credible political party there is for the Shiites. That hasn’t changed, but people are not one hundred percent compliant like they used to be. While Nasrallah pledges more fighting in Syria, Yemen and wherever they are needed in the region, more young men are coming back in coffins. The rhetoric is becoming more aggressive in Lebanon, whereas the Iranian people are starting to enjoy the advantages of Iran’s “openness” to the West. Investors are leaving Lebanon and moving to Iran, and all these young Shiites can do is hope that the war in Syria will stop so they can start breathing. One cannot but feel a sense of jealousy when they talk about Iran. Iranian youth are reaping the benefits while Lebanese Shiites are either dying in Syria, or in the best case scenario, lingering – unemployed and isolated – until the Party of God decides otherwise. Despite all that, Karim and Racha are not hopeless. “We are not an exception. Many people are asking questions, and there isn’t one family in Dahiyeh that isn’t divided over Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon and the region. We will force Hezbollah to change. No one else can.”
Disclaimer: Names and identifying details have been changed to protect the privacy of individuals.
**Hanin Ghaddar is the managing editor of NOW and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council. She tweets @haningdr

Doctors, Medical Professionals Alarmed by Trash Crisis Impact
Associated Press/Naharnet/March 04/16/Lebanon's trash collection crisis, which sent thousands protesting into the streets last summer, is now in its eight month with still no resolution in sight. Though it has prompted political debates and occasional heated discussions, Lebanese doctors and medical professionals are increasingly alarmed by its effect on health. At the emergency room at the Sacre Coeur hospital outside Beirut, doctors say they are seeing a spike in severe respiratory diseases and that it's tied to the ongoing trash disaster. The collection crisis erupted last July after authorities closed the primary landfill for Beirut and Mount Lebanon without providing an alternative. Thousands took to the streets and the demonstrations were a catharsis of discontent directed at the political class, which has walled itself off from popular opinion and failed to provide other basic services such as water, electricity and drainage. But the protests died down and politicians have been in no hurry to solve the disaster. Politicians have instead been occupied with containing the fallout of an abrupt Saudi Arabian decision to cancel $4 billion in aid, most of it marked for the army. It's not just Sacre Coeur that is under strain — hospital beds across Beirut have been full this winter, partly because of a panic over swine flu, which Health Minister Wael Abou Faour said took four lives through mid-February, but doctors say more patients are coming in because of the garbage. "We're seeing new profiles in the emergency rooms this year," said Joelle Khadra-Eid, an ER doctor at Sacre Coeur. "These are people who didn't have asthma or allergies when they were young. They've been exposed to ... pollution that wasn't around before."Beirut streets are kept relatively garbage-free — which has helped pacify the public — and the trash is being pushed to the city's periphery, where it piles up along the roadside and the banks of the Beirut River. "In some cases, they start burning the trash, and then we see widespread breathing difficulties and skin infections," said Rachid Rahme, the director of Sacre Coeur's emergency and critical care units. In the suburb of Jdeideh, to Beirut's east, local officials closed a winding road to create a rivulet of garbage, stuffed into large white sacks, which snakes down the hill. After a local newspaper published a photo, residents joked that it must be one of the country's much-hyped ski slopes, and the international press flocked to the vista. But the international exposure hasn't shamed politicians into action yet. More than once, government ministers announced an imminent solution to crisis, which never materialized, and now there is talk of dissolving Prime Minister Tammam Salam's government.On Thursday, Salam told his Cabinet that "there is no need for the government to stay" if it can't resolve this crisis, Information Minister Ramzi Jreij said. A few municipalities launched their own recycling initiatives, but many others simply resorted to burning their garbage, often in residential areas. Air contamination in these areas became more than 400 times worse than pollution in the country's industrial areas, a study by the American University of Beirut revealed last year. In December, six months into the crisis, Rahme said cases of gastroenteritis had already gone up 30 percent, compared to 2014, the year before the trash crisis. Most recently, Rahme said admissions rates at Sacre Coeur's ER have jumped 25 percent, and routine symptoms are growing more severe. It's too early for any firm statistics on if and how the spikes in illnesses have affected mortality rates, but the trend is alarming, doctors say. "We're facing a huge outbreak in persistent infections, either in the respiratory system, where viral infections can linger on for six weeks or more, or in the gastrointestinal tract," he said. "We are seeing diarrhea, vomiting, and abdominal pain that go on for three to four weeks," he added.

Hariri Visits Bekaa: Keeping Country without President Not a Constitutional Right
Naharnet/March 04/16/ Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri reiterated Friday that the boycott of presidential electoral sessions is not a "constitutional right" for the blocs that are not showing up at parliament. “All Lebanese consider the absence of a president in Baabda a huge political failure and a major responsibility falls on all MPs,” said Hariri in the Bekaa city of Zahle. “We must all attend the 37th session to elect a president,” he added, at a lunch banquet held in his honor by Popular Bloc chief Myriam Skaff, the widow of late minister Elie Skaff. “Let them stop giving us the excuse that boycotting parliament is a constitutional right. Keeping the country without a president for 18, 19 or 20 months is not a right and I don't think there is anyone in the world that considers this a right,” Hariri went on to say. The lunch banquet was attended by the MPs Robert Ghanem, Assem Araji, Tony Abou Khater and Ziad al-Qaderi, former first lady Mona Herawi, Mufti of Bekaa Sheikh Khalil al-Mays, a number of bishops and clergymen, and prominent Zahle figures. Earlier in the day, Hariri visited the central Bekaa town of Saadnayel and performed the Friday prayer at the Imam Ali bin Abi Taleb Mosque. The ex-PM was welcomed by a crowd of citizens and worshipers who threw rice and flowers at his convoy. “I will have other visits to the region because you are good, loyal and brave people … I have returned to stay,” Hariri added, referring to his return to Lebanon after a year abroad.

Hariri: Iran Had Elections a Few Days ago, so Why Can’t we?
Naharnet/March 04/16/Head of the Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri condemned on Thursday the ongoing vacuum in the presidency, indirectly accusing Iran of using Hizbullah to prevent the polls. He said in an interview with CNN television: “Iran had elections a few days ago, so why can’t we have elections, like normal people?” “Why can’t we go to the parliament? Why are they stopping Hizbullah from letting members of parliament elect a president?” he asked. “We are trying to keep Lebanon safe among all the problems that are happening in the region. We do not want to turn Lebanon into Syria. We want to save Lebanon.”He however expressed fears that the Syrian war could spread to Lebanon. The Islamic State group “would love to come to Lebanon. We are fighting it. We will keep on fighting it, we will keep fighting al-Nusra Front,” he added. “In the end however if you do not have a president, a new government and all that, Lebanon cannot function as it is to faces all these challenges,” warned the MP. Addressing Saudi Arabia’s decision to halt its aid to the Lebanese army over the stances of Hizbullah and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, Hariri told CNN: “I think the foreign minister took a decision that is not supposed to be taken.”“I think Lebanon should have stood by Saudi Arabia because it is something that is not acceptable by all means. Even Iraq, which is very close to Iran, took that position and approved the decision in the Arab League, but unfortunately we did not take the right decision,” he said of Bassil’s abstention from voting on League resolutions condemning attacks against the Saudi embassy and consulate in Iran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali “Khamenei himself came out and condemned these actions and I do not see why Hizbullah in Lebanon and the foreign minister here took such a position.”“It reveals that Hizbullah is being played as a proxy of Iran and this is unfortunate because Lebanon cannot sustain a policy against any Arab nation let alone Saudi Arabia.”“We believe Saudi Arabia has done so much for Lebanon throughout the history of the relationship between the two countries. If you think of how many billions of dollars Saudi Arabia spent in Lebanon especially after the war in 2006.”“Saudi Arabia has been playing positive. It has never built a militia whereas Iran has built a militia called ‘Hizbullah’,” added Hariri. He also rejected claims that any weapons granted to the Lebanese army would end up with Hizbullah.

Attack on Syria rebel group in Golan could pose headache for Israel
Jerusalem Post/March 04/16
At least 18 people were killed, among them the leader of the Revolutionary Command Council in Quneitra and Golan, in a village near the town of Quneitra.
An attack on a Syrian rebel group in the Golan Heights earlier this week could have security repercussions for Israel. At least 18 people were killed, among them the leader of the Revolutionary Command Council in Quneitra and Golan, in a village near the town of Quneitra, which abuts the border fence that separates the Israeli and Syrian sides of the Golan Heights. According to Al Jazeera, the organization's local finance office in al-Ashe was blown up by a car bomb on Wednesday despite a cease-fire negotiated by foreign powers. No one has yet to take responsibility for the attack. The Revolutionary Command Council, which has been active in the area since 2013, is one of many anti-Assad groups operating near the border with Israel in a Syrian civil war marked by often-changing circumstances. The Revolutionary Command Council’s leader is Abdullah al-Bashir al-Noemi, who is also the current chief of staff of the Supreme Military Council, the central body of the Free Syrian Army. A former Syrian army general, he is from the Noeimi tribe prominent in the Quneitra area, and according to reports his son was killed fighting in the area in 2013. He was appointed to his position with the Supreme Military Council in February 2014. The Revolutionary Command Council, like the larger umbrella FSA it is in coalition with, presents itself as non-Islamist and opposed to the policies of groups like Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaida affiliate. Increased attention has been drawn to the situation on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights since a mob killed a Syrian man in Majdal Shams, on the Israeli side of the Heights, on June 22. In a meeting with reporters on June 29, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said that Israel was in contact with Syrian rebels and that medical aid was being provided to them. But the condition for that aid was that the border remain quiet and that the rebels do not harm the Druse in Syria.
**Seth J. Frantzman contributed to this report.

Major Busts in Syria, Lebanon Shed Light on Captagon Trade
Naharnet/March 04/16/ A string of major drug busts in Syria and Lebanon has drawn new attention to the trade in captagon, an illegal substance that has flourished in the chaos of Syria's war. Security forces in both countries have clamped down in recent months on exports of the psychostimulant, produced in swathes of Syrian and Lebanese territory where government oversight is lax or non-existent. "When the Syrian crisis started, Lebanon and Syria were transformed into a gateway to smuggle captagon," a Lebanese security source told Agence France Presse on condition of anonymity. "The substance wasn't invented in the past five years -- but that's when smuggling operations flourished, so Lebanon became an exporting country," he said. Captagon is classified by the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime as an "amphetamine-type stimulant" and usually blends amphetamines, caffeine and other substances. On December 30, Lebanese authorities said they, in coordination with Saudi Arabia, had seized 12 million captagon capsules and arrested the "mastermind" of a cell exporting them to the Gulf. And in October, Lebanon arrested a Saudi prince and four other Saudi nationals for attempting to smuggle out nearly two tons of captagon via Rafik Hariri International Airport, in one of the country's largest busts.
'Extraordinary energy'
General Maamun Ammuri, head of Syria's Drug Enforcement Agency, said authorities had seized shipments amounting to 24 million captagon capsules in 2015 alone. Some five million capsules were discovered en route from Syria's Mediterranean port of Tartus to Kuwait, and other "large amounts" were confiscated along the Lebanese and Turkish borders, Ammuri said. In war-torn Syria, authorities say captagon production occurs largely in areas outside government control, including northern Aleppo and on the outskirts of the capital.
"Our documents indicate that drug traffickers are terrorist groups with two goals: first, to spread this poison in areas under the control of the Islamic State group to fund themselves and buy weapons," said Ammuri. "And second, for its fighters to use so that they become numb to their own criminal activities, like beheadings and executions," he added. A former opposition fighter who is now in Lebanon as a refugee said he used to take captagon with his fellow fighters "to eliminate fatigue and fear so we could stay up longer.""It made us brave and gave us extraordinary energy," he told AFP. Another Syrian rebel said that "IS and (al-Qaida affiliate) al-Nusra Front, as well as Islamist groups, forbid the use of these drugs because they're against Islamic law." A third admitted that opposition factions produce captagon, but said it was strictly to generate funds for rebel groups and members were banned from partaking.
$5-10 a pop
In Lebanon, factories churning out captagon are largely based along the restive border with Syria, including the towns of Arsal, Flita, and Brital in the east and Wadi Khaled in the north, the security source said. "Captagon factories don't need a lot of space. You could produce millions of capsules in a minivan without making any noise," a second security source in Lebanon said. A captagon producer in Lebanon's vast east Bekaa Valley, on condition of anonymity, said dealers typically buy captagon from him in packages of 200 capsules. "Producing captagon requires amphetamine, which you can get from ketone, in addition to rubbing alcohol and citric acid," he said. He dries the ingredients and transfers them to a pressing machine typically used to make hard candy. From there, the drugs are transported to Lebanon's seaside airport to be smuggled to eager consumers, mostly in the Gulf. "Captagon isn't popular in Lebanon, and the level of demand does not compare to the other kinds of drugs because of its price -- between $5 and $10 per pill," the Lebanese security source said. "Gulf countries are the number one captagon consumers, especially Saudi Arabia. Most of the smuggling operations that are busted are heading to Saudi. "The reason they consume this drug in particular is their belief that it is a sexual stimulant," he added. The Saudi interior ministry announced in November that it had seized more than 22.4 million capsules of amphetamines. Convicted drug traffickers in Saudi Arabia are sentenced to death.

U.S. after GCC Decision on Hizbullah: Nobody Wants New Conflict
Naharnet/March 04/16/The U.S. State Department has downplayed a possible conflict in Lebanon over a decision taken by Gulf states earlier this week to designate Hizbullah a terrorist organization. “Nobody wants new conflict, obviously. But I would let these states speak for themselves and to their decision to so designate,” State Department spokesman John Kirby said Thursday in his press briefing. His comment came in response to a question made by a reporter whether he thought that branding Hizbullah a terrorist group by the Gulf Cooperation Council would lead to a new conflict in Lebanon. The United States has long ago characterized Hizbullah as a terrorist group, Kirby said. The Saudi-led bloc of six Gulf Arab nations formally branded Hizbullah a terrorist organization on Wednesday, ramping up the pressure on the party that is fighting on the side of Syrian President Bashar Assad.The GCC move came less than two weeks after Saudi Arabia announced it was cutting $4 billion in aid to the Lebanese army and security forces. The kingdom and other Gulf states followed up that move by urging their citizens to leave Lebanon.

Decentralization Plan to Resolve Waste Crisis on Right Track
Naharnet/March 04/16/ A ministerial committee tasked with resolving the country's seven-month-long waste crisis has agreed on the establishment of several landfills, ministerial sources have said. Discussions are now focusing to secure consensus on the Kojok landfill in Iqlim al-Kharroub, the sources told several local dailies published on Friday. The other landfills are in Bourj Hammoud and the so-called Costa Brava in Khaldeh, they said. But As Safir daily said that Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat has stressed he is not in favor of establishing a landfill in Iqlim al-Kharroub, where he has strong influence. Tashnag leader MP Hagop Pakradounian also denied that his party has approved to open the landfill of Bourj Hammoud. He said the Tashnag was waiting for a clear description from the authorities on how to operate the landfill before giving its green light. There are also efforts to reopen the Naameh landfill to dump the waste that has accumulated on the streets and makeshift dumps since its closure in July last year. The waste crisis emerged after Naameh, which used to receive the waste of Beirut and heavily-populated Mount Lebanon, was shut down. The government approved a decentralization plan in November. But it then dropped the issue in favor of an export plan. The export scheme failed last month when the authorities discovered that the firm, which was tasked with dealing with the issue, had forged the documents to export the waste to Russia. After that scandal, the government decided to go back to the decentralization plan by offering financial resources to the residents and municipalities of areas where the landfills will be located.
Prime Minister Tammam Salam warned cabinet ministers on Thursday that he would not call for a cabinet session next week if the country’s waste problem is not resolved soon. Salam denied that he would suspend cabinet sessions, telling ministers the situation is “much worse than that,” Information Minister Ramzi Jreij said in his press briefing.

Record 1.25 mln migrants in EU in 2015
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Friday, 4 March 2016/A record 1.25 million asylum seekers arrived in the European Union in 2015, more than double the figure from the previous year, official data showed on Friday as EU leaders prepared for a crucial summit with Turkey to try to stem the flow of refugees. Syrians seeking asylum from the civil war were the single largest group at nearly 363,000 followed by 178,200 Afghans and 121,500 Iraqis, the Eurostat statistics agency said. Some 159,000 or nearly half of all the Syrian applications were made in Germany while among the Afghans, 45,600 went to Hungary and another 41,200 sought refuge in Sweden. Germany was the single largest recipient of asylum applications in 2015, at 441,800 or some 35 percent of the total, with Hungary taking 174,400 or 14 percent and Sweden 156,100 or 12 percent. Separate figures from the International Organization for Migration released this week showed that another 130,000 migrants have made it to the EU across the Mediterranean alone so far this year, on top of one million last year. Most cross the Aegean Sea from Turkey to Greece, or from North Africa to Italy. In terms of asylum applications, however, Greece received only 11,370 in 2015, less than one percent of the total, the EU figures showed. EU leaders hold a summit Monday with Turkey as part of efforts to halt the flood of migrants which has exposed deep differences within the 28-nation bloc over how to tackle the problem.
Greek pileup
Border slowdowns and closures along the migrant route through Europe have just meant that people are now piling up in Greece, overwhelming the country’s resources, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at a joint news conference with French President Francois Hollande in Paris, the Associated Press reported. The Balkan countries and Austria have recently introduced tight restrictions to stem the flow of migrants. That has resulted in thousands of refugees and other migrants being stranded by Greece's border with Macedonia. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Friday he was cautiously optimistic that Turkey would agree to take back non-Syrian refugees as part of a “step-by-step” approach to confronting the crisis. (With AFP and the Associated Press)

Displaced Syrians remain on Turkish border despite truce: MSF
AFP, Beirut Friday, 4 March 2016/Tens of thousands of displaced Syrians along Turkey's border have not returned home despite a truce that began at the weekend, a humanitarian organization said on Friday. "Some 100,000 people gathered near the border - including 50,000 in past weeks after the spike in violence in early February from the Syrian government coalition - have not yet started to return home because it's too dangerous," the head of Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), Joanne Liu, told AFP. Friday marked the seventh day of the ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia. "There has been a drop in the violence and a marked decrease in air strikes and bombings but they haven't completely stopped," Liu said. "We're in a transition period and I think it will take another few days for things to settle and for people to become convinced there really is a truce."
But "the movement of people fleeing the (northern) Idlib and Aleppo provinces to the border has decreased enormously", she added. Tens of thousands of Syrians fled the northern city of Aleppo and surrounding areas in early February as Syrian forces backed by Russian air strikes pressed an offensive there against rebels. More than 270,000 people have been killed and millions displaced in Syria's five-year war. "For us, it's the most serious humanitarian and medical crisis at the moment," Liu said. "Work in Syria is a challenge and is extremely difficult."She said that in 2015, 94 out of 153 clinics and hospitals supported by MSF in Syria were targeted by bombings and air strikes. Twelve hospitals were completely destroyed. These facilities treated 154,000 people wounded in the war, of whom 30 to 40 percent were women and children, Liu said.

U.S. leads 14 strikes against ISIS in Iraq, Syria: U.S. military
Reuters | Washington Friday, 4 March 2016/The United States and its allies conducted 14 strikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria on Thursday, the coalition leading the operations said. In a statement released early Friday, the Combined Joint Task Force said six strikes in Syria focused near Al Hasakah and Dayr Az Zawr hit petroleum pipelines, destroyed a heavy machine gun and damaged a tunnel system. In Iraq, eight strikes in seven cities destroyed vehicles, supply caches and sniper and fighting positions, among other targets, the statement said.

Displaced Syrians Remain on Turkish Border despite Truce, Says MSF
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/Tens of thousands of displaced Syrians along Turkey's border have not returned home despite a truce that began at the weekend, a humanitarian organization said on Friday. "Some 100,000 people gathered near the border -- including 50,000 in past weeks after the spike in violence in early February from the Syrian government coalition -- have not yet started to return home because it's too dangerous," the head of Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), Joanne Liu, told AFP. Friday marked the seventh day of the ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia. "There has been a drop in the violence and a marked decrease in air strikes and bombings but they haven't completely stopped," Liu said. "We're in a transition period and I think it will take another few days for things to settle and for people to become convinced there really is a truce." But "the movement of people fleeing the (northern) Idlib and Aleppo provinces to the border has decreased enormously", she added. Tens of thousands of Syrians fled the northern city of Aleppo and surrounding areas in early February as Syrian forces backed by Russian air strikes pressed an offensive there against rebels. More than 270,000 people have been killed and millions displaced in Syria's five-year war. "For us, it's the most serious humanitarian and medical crisis at the moment," Liu said. "Work in Syria is a challenge and is extremely difficult."She said that in 2015, 94 out of 153 clinics and hospitals supported by MSF in Syria were targeted by bombings and air strikes. Twelve hospitals were completely destroyed. These facilities treated 154,000 people wounded in the war, of whom 30 to 40 percent were women and children, Liu said.

April Vote in Syria 'Provocative, Unrealistic', Says Hollande
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/French President Francois Hollande on Friday criticized his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad for scheduling elections in his war-torn country next month, calling the move "provocative" and "unrealistic". "The idea that there could be elections (in April) is not just provocative but totally unrealistic," Hollande said after meeting in Paris with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Assad's decree for parliamentary elections to be held on April 13 was issued shortly after Washington and Moscow announced a ceasefire plan for Syria. Also on Friday, Assad's ally Russian President Vladimir Putin told the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy during a conference call that the plan to hold April polls "does not interfere with steps to build the peace process". At a November meeting in Vienna, world powers agreed on an ambitious but yet to be implemented road map that foresees six months of intra-Syrian talks, leading to a new constitution and free elections within 18 months.

Rebel-Held Town East of Syria Capital to Get Aid, Says U.N.
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/The United Nations was on Friday preparing to deliver aid to a rebel-held town east of Damascus, in the second distribution of assistance since a shaky truce began in Syria. An official in the U.N.'s humanitarian coordination office told AFP that a convoy of "food, nutrition, and medical supplies" was to be distributed to 20,000 people in Kafr Batna on Friday. "The convoy has just left Damascus," the official said. Kafr Batna is in the rebel bastion of Eastern Ghouta, which was hit by air strikes on Friday for the first time since the truce began early last Saturday. Eastern Ghouta, besieged by pro-government forces since 2013, was regularly and heavily bombarded by the regime, but had been relatively calm since the ceasefire started. The first delivery of humanitarian assistance under the truce took place on Monday in Moadamiyet al-Sham, an encircled opposition town southwest of the capital. Non-food items such as blankets and hygiene supplies were delivered there. The U.N.'s lead aid coordinator, Yacoub El Hillo, said on Sunday he hoped the truce would allow aid to be delivered to 154,000 people over the following five days. Syria's main opposition body, the High Negotiations Committee, has criticized both the regime and the United Nations for what it says are delayed and insufficient deliveries. HNC head Riad Hijab said on Thursday that aid was "only entering very limited areas".On Thursday, Jan Egeland, special adviser for aid to the U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura, voiced hope that the ceasefire would "lead to a big leap forward... in reaching many hundreds of thousands more people". "Considering how it has been, we are obviously making great progress, but there is a lot left to be done," he told AFP.

Air Raids Hit Syria Rebel Bastion despite Truce
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/Warplanes struck a key rebel bastion east of the Syrian capital on Friday for the first time since a fragile truce began over the weekend, a monitor said. "Two air strikes hit the edge of the town of Douma in Eastern Ghouta and one person was killed," said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. He said the strikes were conducted by either Syrian or Russian planes. It was unclear whether the individual killed was a civilian or a fighter. Friday marked the seventh day of the truce brokered by the United States and Russia. Eastern Ghouta, the largest rebel bastion east of Damascus, was regularly and fiercely bombarded by government forces in the lead-up to the ceasefire. On the day before the truce came into effect, 25 air raids targeted the opposition stronghold, 10 of which struck Douma. But the suburb had seen relative calm since the ceasefire began. The most powerful rebel group in Eastern Ghouta is Jaish al-Islam (Army of Islam) which is part of the High Negotiations Committee opposition grouping that agreed to the ceasefire. The Observatory, which relies on a network of sources on the ground, says it determines whether strikes were carried out by Syrian, Russian or US-led coalition aircraft based on the location of the raids, flight patterns and the types of planes involved. A local committee of activists wrote on Facebook that three raids, believed to be Russian, targeted the edges of Douma on Friday. "There is also heavy artillery targeting the town," the Douma Coordination Committee wrote. More than 270,000 people have been killed and millions displaced by the five-year war.

Denmark Ready to Send F-16s, Troops to Fight IS in Syria, Iraq
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/Denmark is ready to send F-16 fighter jets and 400 troops to Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State group, Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said Friday. A majority of political parties in parliament's foreign affairs committee expressed support Friday for the government's proposal, and "the government will on the basis of today's meeting submit a bill to a parliamentary vote to strengthen the campaign against IS," a statement from the prime minister's office said. The vote is scheduled for April 19. "It is a serious decision to send Danish men and women on a mission in the world's hot spots. Therefore, I am grateful that the government's proposal enjoys broad support from the parties in parliament," Rasmussen said. The Danish contribution, which also includes a transport aircraft, would be available from mid-2016. The 400 soldiers would include pilots, support staff and 60 special operations forces. It was not immediately known what the special forces would be assigned to do in Syria. "It doesn't mean that the Danish soldiers will be in direct offensive combat. But they could be attacked, and therefore they will have a robust mandate," news agency Ritzau quoted Foreign Minister Kristian Jensen as saying after the foreign affairs committee's meeting. Denmark is a member of the international U.S.-led coalition against IS, but has so far only intervened in Iraq. In October 2014 until October 2015, it had seven F-16s in Iraq to help combat IS militants.
It currently has around 120 troops stationed at the Al-Asad air base near Baghdad, where they have been training Iraqi soldiers and Kurdish security forces.

Syrians Use Truce to Resume Friday Protests
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/For the first time in years, hundreds of Syrians nationwide took advantage of a nearly week-long ceasefire on Friday to resume anti-government protests under the slogan "The Revolution Continues!" Waving the three-starred tricolor flag that has become the uprising's emblem, demonstrators in opposition-held areas of Aleppo, Damascus, Daraa and Homs called for the downfall of President Bashar Assad's regime. "You could say we've gone back to the beginning," said Hasaan Abu Nuh, an activist from the flashpoint rebel town of Talbisseh in central Homs province. Syria's conflict first began in March 2011 with widespread protests against the regime. Demonstrations were at their largest on Fridays, and activists early on began assigning themes to the weekly marches. But by 2013, a fierce government crackdown and heavy shelling had stamped out most attempts to stage protests. Abu Nuh said the last demonstration in Talbisseh was in June 2012. Since then, rocket attacks and air strikes made residents too afraid to gather in large numbers. However, a landmark ceasefire that came into effect early last Saturday has brought relative calm to opposition areas.On the first Friday since the truce began, crowds across the country returned to the streets, waving banners reading "The Revolution Continues!" "People are so, so happy. There was crying, there was joy, but there was also a lump in people's throats," Abu Nuh said. "There were a lot of young guys that used to protest with us who weren't there today because they've been killed," he told AFP by phone. In Syria's second city, Aleppo, hundreds of people took to the streets in the opposition-held eastern neighborhoods. "With this truce, we have the opportunity to express why we came out to the streets in the first place, which is the downfall of the regime," said Abu Nadim, an activist in the city. He said he also wanted to show the world that demonstrators in Aleppo and elsewhere are not "armed gangs, but a people demanding freedom and the downfall of the regime". Abu Nadim is responsible for coming up with slogans and painting them on large, white banners.
AFP spoke to him while he painted "Long live Syria, may Assad fall!" ahead of a protest where nearly 100 people marched carrying similar signs. Aleppo has been divided since 2012 between government forces in the western districts and rebels in the east. When Friday's crowd passed through a neighborhood near the front line, they could hear the sound of sniper fire coming from a government-held district. But no one budged, an AFP correspondent there said. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, protests also took place in the towns of Atareb and Azaz in Aleppo province, parts of Idlib province in the northwest, and Daraa in the south. More than 270,000 people have been killed since Syria's conflict began, and millions have been displaced.

UN: Destruction in Iraq’s Ramadi ‘staggering’
Reuters, Baghdad Friday, 4 March 2016/Destruction in Ramadi is “staggering” and worse than anywhere else in Iraq, a UN team concluded this week after making the first assessment visit to the city since its recapture from ISIS. It said the main hospital and train station had both been destroyed, along with thousands of other buildings. Local officials told the UN team 64 bridges and much of the electricity grid had been ruined. Iraqi forces declared victory over the jihadist group in Ramadi in December and has since cleared most of the western Iraqi city. ISIS fighters still hold pockets in the northern and eastern outskirts. Its recovery boosted Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in his campaign to oust the militants from their northern stronghold of Mosul later this year. But more than six months of fighting shattered most infrastructure and levelled many homes in Ramadi, the Anbar provincial capital where around half a million people once lived. The fighting saw ISIS bomb attacks and devastating US-led coalition air strikes. “The destruction the team has found in Ramadi is worse than any other part of Iraq. It is staggering,” said Lise Grande, the United Nations’ humanitarian coordinator in Iraq. The two-day assessment found that nearly every building had been damaged or destroyed in frontline areas. In other districts, one in three or four buildings were damaged, it said. U.N. analysis of satellite imagery last month showed nearly 5,700 buildings in Ramadi and its outskirts had been damaged since mid-2014, with almost 2,000 completely destroyed. Grande said it was too early to say how much time and money it would take to rebuild. The cash-strapped government in Baghdad is appealing to international donors to help the city, the largest retaken from ISIS. It must first clear bombs planted by the militants in streets and buildings - an effort which also requires funding it lacks. The assessment team said the greatest concentration of such explosives was reported in south-central Ramadi. The United Nations is working with local authorities on plans to rebuild health, water and energy infrastructure. The U.N. team said a water plant in central Ramadi could probably be repaired quickly. It said it had identified four potential relocation sites for returning civilians. Iraq’s central government has yet to give the all-clear for the return of residents.

N. Korea Leader Orders Nuclear Arsenal on 'Standby'
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/Leader Kim Jong-Un has ordered North Korea's nuclear arsenal to be readied for pre-emptive use at any time, in an expected escalation of military rhetoric following the U.N. Security Council's adoption of tough new sanctions on Pyongyang. The North's nuclear warheads must be deployed "on standby so as to be fired at any moment," Kim was quoted as saying by the North's official KCNA news agency on Friday. He also warned that the situation on the divided Korean peninsula had become so dangerous that the North needed to shift its military strategy to one of "pre-emptive attack". Such bellicose rhetoric is almost routine for North Korea at times of elevated tensions. While the North is known to have a small stockpile of nuclear warheads, experts are divided about its ability to mount them on a working missile delivery system. Washington downplayed Kim's threat as posturing. "We have not seen North Korea test or demonstrate the ability to miniaturize a nuclear weapon and put it on an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile)," a U.S. defense official told AFP.Still, the official added, "our forces are ready to counter-eliminate strikes if necessary".'Stern punishment'  In Seoul, President Park Geun-Hye promised South Korea would mete out "stern punishment" in the event of any North Korea provocation as she warned of a "fiercer" backlash than usual from Pyongyang over the latest U.N. sanctions. According to KCNA, Kim made his comments while monitoring the test firing of a new, high-caliber multiple rocket launcher on Thursday, just hours after the U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted the US-drafted resolution penalizing the North for its fourth nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch last month. South Korea's defense ministry said the North had fired half a dozen rockets about 100-150 kilometers (60-90 miles) into the sea off its eastern coast on Thursday. In a clear threat to the neighboring South, Kim said the new rocket launcher should be "promptly deployed" along with other "recently developed" weaponry. In the wake of the "gangster-like" U.N. resolution pushed by the United States and its South Korean ally, North Koreans are now "waiting for an order of combat to annihilate the enemy with their surging wrath", he added. The Security Council resolution adopted late Wednesday laid out the toughest sanctions imposed on Pyongyang to date over its nuclear weapons program and will, if implemented effectively, apply significant economic pressure on Kim's regime.It breaks new ground by sanctioning specific sectors key to the North Korean economy and seeking to undermine the North's use of, and access to, international transport systems. Pyongyang on Friday rejected the sanctions as "unfair, illicit and immoral" and vowed to keep building its nuclear arsenal. "The strengthening of our nuclear deterrent is a legitimate exercise of our right to self-defense, which will continue as long as the hostile U.S. policy is in place," the foreign ministry said in a statement.
'Dangerous phase'
Kim said the resolution had opened a "very dangerous phase", coming just days before the United States and South Korea kick off annual joint military drills that Pyongyang views as provocative rehearsals for invasion.The exercises involving tens of thousands of troops are scheduled to begin next Monday. The Security Council resolution ushered in the fifth set of U.N. sanctions to hit North Korea since it first tested an atomic device in 2006, and was the result of arduous negotiations between the U.S. and China, Pyongyang's sole major ally.China had been reluctant to endorse tough sanctions out of concern that too much pressure would trigger the collapse of the pariah regime, creating chaos on its border. The measures Beijing finally signed off on are extremely tough on paper, but experts have warned that some of the language is vague enough to allow varying levels of enforcement. China's commitment could depend on the outcome of formal talks that opened Friday between Seoul and Washington on the possible deployment of an advanced U.S. missile defense system in South Korea. Its deployment is strongly opposed by China and Russia, with Beijing saying it would undermine its own nuclear deterrent and has the potential to "destroy" relations with Seoul.

Gunmen Kill 16, including Indian Nuns, at Yemen Care Home
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/Gunmen attacked a care home run by missionaries in Yemen's jihadist-plagued southern city of Aden on Friday, killing 16 workers including four Indian nuns, officials said. There was no immediate claim of responsibility but Aden has seen a surge in attacks by the Islamic State group and rival Al-Qaida. Four gunmen entered the refuge operated by Mother Teresa's Missionaries of Charity in Aden's Sheikh Othman district, killing a guard before tying up and shooting employees, security officials told AFP. Screams of elderly residents echoed from the home during the shooting rampage, witnesses said. They recounted seeing the bodies of slain workers with their arms tied behind their backs scattered on the blood-stained floor as the aged residents cried out in fear.Apart from the four Indians, the rest of those killed were Yemenis working at the facility, officials said. "I went out for Friday prayers. When I came back, I found all my friends dead," one of the residents said. It is not the first deadly attack on the Mother Teresa order in Yemen. In 1998, three of its nuns were shot dead in western Yemen by a psychiatric patient who had volunteered to fight alongside Bosnian Muslims in 1992 before returning to the Arabian Peninsula country. The latest attack comes with Yemen's internationally recognized government grappling with an Iran-backed rebellion on one side and a growing jihadist presence on the other. One official said the attackers were "extremists" and blamed the Islamic State group, which has been gaining ground in Aden in recent months.President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi has declared Aden to be Yemen's temporary capital as Sanaa remains in the hands of the Huthi rebels and their allies since they seized it in September 2014. Further east, a suspected drone strike hit a vehicle carrying Al-Qaida militants in Shabwa province, killing four, local government and tribal sources said Friday. Only the United States is known to operate armed drones over Yemen. Al-Qaida and IS have stepped up attacks in Aden despite the efforts of the government and its backers in a Saudi-led coalition battling the Huthis to secure it. However, most attacks have so far targeted coalition forces and pro-government Yemeni troops. Late on Thursday, gunmen in Aden shot dead Hussein al-Wuhayshi, a leader of a local pro-government militia formed in the south in 2011 to fight Al-Qaida, along with his brother, a security official said. On Monday, a suicide car bombing in Sheikh Othman hit a gathering of loyalist forces, killing four people and wounding five others, according to a security official. The Huthi rebels controlled Yemen's main port city for months before government loyalists pushed them out in July. Because of the unrest gripping Aden, Hadi and many senior officials in his government spend most of their time in Riyadh. Al-Qaida has been well-established for years in south Yemen, but now faces competition from IS, which has mounted a series of deadly attacks, particularly in Aden. In December, suspected jihadists blew up a small deserted Catholic church in the city dating from the 1950s when Aden was a British protectorate. More than 6,000 people have been killed in the Yemeni conflict with more than 80 percent of the population in dire need of food, medicine or other basic necessities, according to the United Nations.

Israel Demolishes West Bank Homes, Displacing 36 Palestinians
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/Israeli forces demolished dozens of structures including a school in the northern West Bank this week, leaving 10 families homeless, the U.N. said on Friday. The demolitions took place on Wednesday in the village of Khirbet Tana, south of Nablus in the northern West Bank. In total, 41 structures were destroyed, displacing 36 Palestinians including 11 children, the U.N.'s humanitarian body said in a statement. COGAT, the defense ministry body responsible for coordinating Israeli government activity in the Palestinian territories, put the number of structures at 20. It said demolition orders were issued in advance. The army regularly destroys homes it says have been built without permission from the Israeli authorities. Palestinians and their supporters say it is extremely difficult for them to obtain permits in the part of the West Bank under full Israeli control, known as Area C, which accounts for about 60 percent of the territory. Last week the European Union hit out at Israeli authorities after they demolished a school funded by the French government.Nickolay Mladenov, U.N. special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, said last month the number of such demolitions has tripled on average since the start of the year. "Since the beginning of 2016, Israel has demolished, on average, 29 Palestinian-owned structures per week, three times the weekly average for 2015," he said.

Iranians with Mouths Sewn Shut Renew Protest over 'Jungle' Demolition
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/A dozen Iranian refugees with their mouths sewn shut in protest at their eviction from France's "Jungle" migrant camp protested for a third straight day as demolition workers were wrapping up their first week on the job. The Iranians positioned themselves in front of a line of riot police protecting the workers as they dismantled makeshift shelters in the southern half of the camp. It was the third day in a row that Iranians have staged the disturbing protest in the camp, where thousands of migrants have been living in the hope of the sneaking across the Channel. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve told France's BFM TV that he felt "immense compassion and sadness" over the protests, but said the Calais town hall was merely trying to "ensure that each person in a vulnerable position finds a place to stay." By early Friday, Calais authorities said they had cleared around a quarter of the southern half of the camp that has been marked for destruction -- around two hectares (five acres). Calais officials said clearing the southern half of the camp would last at least a month. Work was to halt for the weekend and resume on Monday. There has been no announcement on the fate of the rest of the camp. "The idea is not to rush things. There are some zones that are easier than others. We must act very pragmatically, very humanely," said local official Vincent Berton. Council workers have been trying to convince migrants in the destruction zone to move to official centers around France, or heated shipping containers alongside the Jungle. But many are reluctant to give up their dream of sneaking aboard lorries to Britain, and have simply shifted to even grimmer camps further along the northern French coast.

Egyptian Student to be Deported from U.S. over Trump Threat
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/March 04/16/An Egyptian student attending flight school in California is facing deportation after posting a message on Facebook saying he was ready to kill Donald Trump. Emadeldin Elsayed, 23, was arrested by federal agents on February 12 at the Los Angeles-area flight school he was attending after posting what authorities said was a death threat against the leading Republican presidential candidate. "I am willing to kill Donald Trump and serve a life sentence. The whole world would thank me for doing that," Elsayed wrote on his Facebook page, according to his attorney Hani Bushra. Although authorities did not file any criminal charges against Elsayed, an immigration judge earlier this week ordered he be deported on grounds the flight school had terminated his enrollment and as such his student visa was no longer valid. The judge also refused to release Elsayed on bail after prosecutors argued he posed a flight risk. Bushra told AFP Thursday that although his client had shown poor judgment in his Facebook posting, he by no means meant to harm Trump and regretted his actions. "He is just a kid who did something stupid," he said. "This was more angry rhetoric similar to rhetoric that perhaps is even used by Mr Donald Trump himself when he says things like we are going to kill the family members of terrorists and their children and their wives. "I don't think he really means that and I don't think my client meant what he said." Bushra said Elsayed's Facebook message was in response to Trump's anti-Muslim rhetoric and was accompanied by an article on the issue. "It was a foolish thing to do given the (atmosphere) in the country right now," Bushra said. "It was just an angry response."He said a hearing on the deportation proceedings is scheduled on Friday and that at this point, all his client wants is time to get his affairs in order before leaving the country. "He has paid $41,000 in tuition and all he wants is some kind of reprieve to get his belongings, sell his car and talk to the school owner about getting reimbursed," he said. "And then he just wants to leave the country."

What if the Syrian truce ends?
Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
Due to ineffectiveness in dealing with the Syrian conflict, some promoters of U.N. initiatives have resorted to wishful thinking. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon says the truce in Syria - which started a few days ago - is largely holding. However, Syrian rebels say military operations by the regime, Hezbollah and Russia are ongoing.U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says a wait-and-see approach is needed regarding truce violations, and he agrees with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov not to discuss them publicly. The aim is to keep the truce on life support, and to justify it with humanitarian reasons.
The U.S. obsession with the illusory truce may be due to a lack of American political imagination, or it could represent complicity with Moscow in dividing Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines.
Plan B
The U.S. obsession with the illusory truce may be due to a lack of American political imagination, or it could represent complicity with Moscow in dividing Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines. James Stavridis, retired U.S. navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO, told CNN that an American “plan B,” should the truce fail, would “probably at some point” entail a no-fly zone so as to “build a moderate opposition.” He said Jordan would likely participate. There is a need to differentiate between illusion and reality. Can the Syrian regime switch from brutal war tactics to soft politics? Can Iran accept a Syria different from the one it had imagined? Will Russia withdraw that easily from the country as soon as a new Syria is born? A political solution is best and safest - any sane person would choose it. However, it is wrong, even a sin, to combine reality with fiction - what should be negotiated versus what should be fought for.

Saudis ready to give Syrian rebels missiles against Russian warplanes and tanks
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 04/16
For the first time in the five-year Syrian conflict, Saudi Arabia is preparing to supply Syrian rebel groups with anti-air and anti-tank missiles in an attempt to stall Russia’s military efforts to extend Bashar Assad’s days in power. Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the defense minister, is choreographing this escalated Saudi intervention in the Syrian war. He plans to arm Syrian rebels militias with missiles capable of striking the new Russian T-90 tanks, which debkafile’s intelligence sources disclose were shipped directly to the Syrian army’s armed divisions in the last two weeks from the Russian Black Sea base of Novorossiysk. The big Russian landing craft Novocherkassk, which unloaded a further supply of tanks at Tartus port on Thursday, Thursday, March 3, also delivered a consignment of MLRS rocket launchers. A second Russian vessel is heading for Syria with more hardware.
This is in line with Moscow’s decision to upgrade the Syrian army’s armaments and rebuild the units severely ravaged by five years of combat. For Riyadh, this is tantamount to the indefinite and unacceptable prolongation of Assad's days in power. Most Western and Middle East observers think the Saudis may be bluffing about their plan to arm Syrian rebels with missiles, as a ploy to get Washington and Moscow to treat them seriously as a player on the Syrian stage and take their interests into account. Ideally, Riyadh would hope to break up American cooperation with Iran in Iraq and Russian cooperation with Iran in Syria.
The Saudis have so far pitched into this endlessly complex scenario with two tangible steps:
1. The deployment last week of four Saudi Air Force F-15 bomber fighters at the Turkish base of Incirlik near the Syrian border, to be followed by a contingent of ground troops for operations in Syria.
2. A direct challenge to Iran’s fighting arm in Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah, by cancelling the $4 billion defense package Riyadh had pledged for the rehabilitation of Lebanon’s armed forces. The Lebanese high command is collaborating increasingly with Hizballah and a large slice of Saudi assistance funds would most certainly have reached its hands.
According to a high-ranking Saudi source, the decision to arm Syrian rebels with missiles is final. He said, “The Syrian opposition might soon acquire surface-to-air missiles, which will raise the wrath of Russia and Iran.” He added:: “No Saudi official will own up to these consignments but, just as 30 years ago, Saudi Arabia was not deterred from intervening in Afghanistan against the Russian army – and we came out the winners” - we will not hesitate to take on the Russian army in Syria too. debkafile’s military sources point out that in the Afghan war, the Saudis acted with the full support of the United States, whereas in Syria, the Americans are solidly opposed to any Saudi intervention. That is a huge difference between the two cases.
The introduction of Saudi missiles in support of the anti-Assad opposition would create a new situation in the Syrian conflict, whereby Riyadh also has a say – not just Washington, Moscow and Tehran. And that is exactly what Defense Minister Mohammed was after. Saudi willingness to give the rebels missiles takes the oil kingdom’s intervention in the Syrian conflict a lot farther than Israel, the Gulf emirates, Jordan or Turkey have been ready to go until now.

Opinion: When the Question About Iran Has a Japanese Answer
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al AWsat/March 04/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/03/04/amir-taheri-when-the-question-about-iran-has-a-japanese-answer/
To the Cartesian mentality of the west every question can have only two answers: “yes” or “no”. Further east, however, other possibilities emerge. Arabs might answer a question with a curt “God knows best.” The Iranians have their own word for escaping the “yes” or “no” dichotomy, “bari”, which, roughly translated, means “let’s move on to something else.” When faced with an awkward question, the Japanese have an even better alternative to both “yes” and “no”. It is: “mu ” which means “un-ask your question.” There are questions that an intelligent person would think twice before asking.
This week I found myself bombarded with just that kind of question triggered by the so-called elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran. “Would this election lead to significant changes in the Khomeinist regime’s foreign policy?” The question stems from the fact that, for decades, the Western democracies, led by the United States, have shaped their Iran policy around hopes for “change in the regime” rather than “regime change”.
More than any other western leader, President Barack Obama has heavily invested in that hope. His analysis is that his predecessor George W Bush missed the opportunity to achieve “change within the regime” in Iran by refusing to back the “Reformist” President Muhammad Khatami and even calling the Islamic Republic part of the “Axis of Evil.”
Obama was determined to do the opposite of what Bush did by bending backwards to please the ruling mullahs of Tehran. He refused to give even moral support to Iranians who rose against the Khomeinist regime in 2009 and persuaded other Western powers to also keep mum. Obama also sent hand-written letters to both the Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, eventually convincing them that his administration was ready to dance to the Iranian tune.
That started a process which was to lead to the simulacrum of a deal over Iran’s controversial nuclear program, and the lifting of sanctions imposed by the United Nations, the United Sates and the European Union.
The election of Hojat Al-Islam Hassan Rouhani as President was seen as the return of the Khatami opportunity that Bush Junior had squandered. Dubbed a “Reformist”, Rouhani was cast in the role of central character in a new version of “change within the regime” scenario.
Back in 2014 Secretary of State John Kerry insisted that the US should support Rouhani to win the coming general election in 2016, and thus control enough levers of power to alter the course of the wayward ship that is the Khomeinist regime.
That election came last Friday and, drunk on their fantasies, the western media declared the “Reformist” bloc led by Rouhani and his mentor Hashemi Rafsanjani as “winners” even before the results had been announced.
For the New York Times, an ardent supporter of Obama, that was “the new beginning” that the president had worked for since 2009.
The problem is that Rafsanjani’s “Reformists”, if they actually exist, won neither the Islamic Majlis, the ersatz parliament and nor the Assembly of Experts that chooses the “Supreme Guide”.
Even if they had won, the fact remains that the Islamic Republic’s strategic policies are not discussed either in the Cabinet led by Rouhani or in the Majlis, let alone decided there. For example, Obama should know that his so-called nuclear deal was not even presented to the Cabinet and that the Majlis did not even receive an official Persian translation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which he has been marketing as his greatest diplomatic achievement.
Understanding the Islamic Republic, let alone speculating about its future course, is rendered more difficult by the western love of political labels. During the Cold war, western Kremlinologists used the labels “hawks” and “doves” in their analyses of the Soviet Union. It was only after the fall of the Communist Empire that they realized that the only birds that nested in the Kremlin had been vultures and cormorants.
The truth is that there are no “Reformists” in the Islamic Republic. Khatami was no “Reformist” and Rouhani isn’t one either. Khatami was honest enough never to describe himself as a “Reformist”. The term he used” in Persian was “Islah talab” which means “someone who seeks reform”. Throughout his eight years as President, Khatami did not introduce a single reform in any domain; economic, political, cultural, social, or foreign policy. Whether he couldn’t as his friends suggest, or didn’t want to, as his critics charge, is beside the point.
Rouhani has been equally honest, describing himself as “Etedali” (moderate) rather than “Reformist”. And, yet, with his presidential term heading for its final year, it would be hard to see Rouhani as a moderate. In a number of domains, including executions, imprisonment of human rights and trade union activists, crackdown against the media, and support for radical groups in the Middle East he has been more of a hardliner than his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Again, his entourage blame all that on “other organs of state”, claiming that the president has no say in shaping let alone implementing the repressive policies.
Last Friday the candidates’ list backed by Rouhani and Khatami, as well as Rafsanjani, won all of Tehran’s 30 seats in the Islamic Majlis. But the architects of the list were honest enough to label it “The List of Hope”, making no mention of the word “Reform”. Thus terms such as “reform” and “Reformist” with regard to the Islamic Republic exist only in the imagination of Obama and some delusional analysts in the West.
All this does not mean that people like Khatami and Rouhani, and more importantly, some of those on the ”List of Hope” are not aware of the fact that the Islamic Republic is on a suicidal course and that change is needed to save not only the regime but, more importantly, the country itself.
The trouble is that the Khomeinist system, like other systems with an ideological architecture divorced from reality, lacks any mechanism for reform. The Khomeinist system is un-reformable as were Nazi Germany and the USSR in their times, or as are North Korea Cuba and Zimbabwe today.
Iran’s behavior, inside or outside will not significantly change, unless the present regime changes. But before Obama once again accuses me of calling on the US to invade Iran and change its regime, let me emphasize that I am not asking for any such thing and have never done so. All I ask is that Obama and others do not interfere in Iranian affairs and, above all, do nothing to help prolong the life of an un-reformable regime that is oppressing Iranians and wreaking havoc in the Middle East and beyond.
Don’t get me wrong.There are some good people within the Khomeinist regime, including some of those “elected” to the two assemblies last Friday. I am confident that some of them at least are true “seekers of reform”. The problem is that they don’t know what kind of reform and, even if they knew, dare not mention it in public. They dare not mention it in public because they fear that changing one brick within this shaky structure could bring the whole edifice down, a frightening prospect for them.
So, can “seekers of reform” lead Iran to reform as Obama hopes? The prudent answer is in Japanese: Mu!

Egypt: with Turkey or Iran?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
We’ve been hearing about alleged reconciliation efforts between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian government as recently reported by different sources. In this same context, we’ve been hearing about similar efforts between Turkey and Egypt, which were jumbled by some Hamas leaders’ comments in Gaza, who were positively praising the Egyptian leadership, namely by hardliner Mahmoud al-Zahar and moderate Osama Hamdan. The cause behind these comments can be two things that are incompatible: Hamas is with the Muslim Brotherhood on the one hand and a permanent ally of Iran on the other hand. In the past, it was possible to support the Turks and the Iranians together, but today supporting both is impossible; one should either be with Turkey or supporting Iran exclusively as both countries are currently engaged in wars. Iranian militias are fighting the pro-Turkish opposition in Syria and the clashes are raging today on the borders of Turkey. Since Mohamed Mursi time in office, Cairo has chosen not to support any party in the Syrian war; the same position persisted since the second Egyptian revolution, which pushed the government of Abdel-Fattah ell-Sisi to be all-out against the Turkish intervention in its affairs and thus, resorted to supporting the Muslim Brotherhood opposition.
Historical relationships
At the same time, the Egyptian government has moved away from Iran, on the grounds that at the heart of Cairo’s historical strategy, and since the days of the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt played the role of a balancer against Tehran. Abdel Nasser stood against the Shah's quest to dominate the Gulf in the sixties, and Anwar Sadat was against Khomeini’s regime and received the deposed shah. On the other hand, the Iranians glorified Sadat's assassin and put his name on one of the main streets in Iran. Isolated President Husni Mubarak and Sadat adopted Nasser’s policy. The only one who opened a window of dialogue with Tehran was the second isolated President Mohamed Mursi, who broke the ice when he visited the Iranian capital, and then received president Ahmadinejad, which was the first visit of an Iranian president to Cairo.
What does the future hold?
Despite the frequent rumors, I believe that Cairo cannot come to terms with Tehran, especially in such serious circumstances where the Iranian regime is waging the broadest expansive war since the revolution, about 40 years ago. Ending the conflict between the two regional countries, Egypt and Turkey, will strengthen the Arab side in the conflict in Syria, especially in its confrontation against Iran. It would be a miracle if the Egyptian leadership reconciled with its sole adversary, the Muslim Brotherhood. Will the group’s cessation of activities against the Egyptian government, mean opening the doors of Cairo’s airport to the repentant persons wishing to return? The miracle would happen if Cairo got closer with Tehran, but two miracles can’t happen at the same time, and of course, this does not include the improvement of protocol relations because they do not mean much. If the reconciliation with the Muslim Brotherhood takes place according to Cairo’s terms, it would have extinguished one of the greatest fires and tensions in the region. The Muslim Brotherhood is an interface to a regional camp and it fought on his behalf on several fronts. The reconciliation with the Muslim Brotherhood will inevitably lead to the Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation. Ending the conflict between the two regional countries, Egypt and Turkey, will strengthen the Arab side in the conflict in Syria, especially in its confrontation against Iran, and will ease the pressure on the Iraqi government that was secluded after the departure of the Americans; Iraq is currently trying to undertake internal and external domination alone. The second miracle, which is the end of the Egyptian-Iranian dispute as Hamas is trying to suggest, will bring the Egyptian government to one achievement: weaken the Turkish front and thus marginalize the Brotherhood. In contrast, Egypt will lose its strategic front with the Gulf. Despite the conflict inside the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regarding the Egyptian affairs and other issues, the GCC countries agreed on the rejection of any bias for Iran, and this is a very important reason behind their position in Syria. However, Egypt's shift toward Iran is far from being imagined, although some Egyptian observers talk about the need for rapprochement with Iran. Sisi’s government has charted for itself an internal strategy and focused on the legitimacy of development and solving the accumulated problems faced by the country and on the needs of its citizens. It distanced itself from going into the external conflicts.

The president’s best is not good enough for Egypt
Mohammed Nosseir/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
It is essential for Egyptians today that their expectations be met and their daily needs fulfilled. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, keen to be remembered as the president who accomplished most in Egypt’s history, is implementing a number of megaprojects within a challenging timeframe. However, they are coming at the expense of Egyptians’ basic needs. If most of the people appreciated the value of Sisi’s projects, he would not need to periodically remind them of their importance. The president, who is probably genuine in his desire to make Egypt the best country in the world, is known to be very sentimental. At the beginning of his campaign, he succeeded in touching the hearts of millions of Egyptians. However, as long as he continues to underperform in meeting citizens’ immediate needs, passionate sentimentality will not help him become a renowned president. The vast majority of Egyptians, suffering daily due to government policies, want him to address their pressing concerns. Sisi, who says he works very long hours, has failed to reduce government inefficiency or improve Egyptians’ low productivity. He initially prompted his ministers to begin their workdays at 07:00, but was only able to obtain their commitment to this schedule for a few months, according to local media reports. He has failed to sell his disciplined practices to the 7 million government employees. During his presidential campaign, Sisi often spoke about values, but since his election I believe he has done nothing to promote their application. Egyptians revolted against former President Hosni Mubarak and his affiliates, yet by implementing their old-fashioned mindset within the current dysfunctional ruling mechanism, I believe Sisi has brought these forces back to power. Meanwhile, he continues to bet on megaprojects that will yield returns in the long term, forgetting that in the wake of two revolutions and a fragile economy, Egyptians are expecting immediate results.
Polarization
A progressive leader does not need to be good at many tasks; he needs to appoint the best people available to implement his vision. I believe Sisi has managed to polarize society by privileging one social sector at the expense of others to better manipulate society, regardless of the magnitude of the divisions created. To move the country forward, he urgently needs to unite society. Sisi, who is known to be a solo player, is severely in need of other politicians’ input. In his capacity as president, he knows more than ordinary citizens do, but this does not mean he performs better. Having gained international recognition of his presidency, he nevertheless failed to grasp the world’s hidden messages concerning its expectations that he move the country forward regarding democracy and justice. Sisi tends to focus on expanding Egypt’s infrastructure, despite the fact that what the country needs most now is human development. A progressive leader does not need to be good at many tasks; he needs to appoint the best people available to implement his vision. Sisi, who insists on adhering to the course he conceived, needs to change gears and act as a leader rather than as a regimented officer.

The unison among Iran’s political parties on Syria
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/March 04/16
During recent political campaigns, Iranian candidates from various political parties discussed the economy, inflation, unemployment, engagement with the West and the nuclear deal. The candidates came from three political camps - reformist, hardliners (including the principalists), the moderates, and some independents. Nevertheless, there was one crucial issue missing from the political campaigns; Iran’s role in the Syrian civil war which has resulted in millions of refuges and a death toll of over 250,000. The public did not appear to question Iran’s role in Syria either.
Iran in Syria
Iran’s engagement in the Syrian civil war should have been a crucial issue in the election campaigns for several reasons. First of all, Shiite Iran is hemorrhaging billions of dollars on the Alawite state to keep Bashar Al-Assad in power. The fact that no Iranian politician has criticized Iran’s military, financial, intelligence and advisory involvement in the Syrian civil war suggests that there exist no differences among the factions of various Iranian political camps on Syria. The Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite branch the Quds Force, which operates in foreign countries, have increased the number of Iranian troops in Syria in order to dominate the political, military and security apparatuses of the Syrian government. The number has grown substantially in the last few months since Russia’s military joined the Iranian forces in support of Assad. The public funerals of Iranian soldiers killed in Syria are increasing all over the country. Iran is now investing on deploying new special operations from the Saberin commandos of the IRGC Ground Force. IIRGC senior cadres have also turned to training, financing, and creating other Shiite militia groups in the region including “Katayeb Hezbollah”, “Imam Ali Battalions”, “Al-Nojaba Movement”, the “Badr Corps”, “Asaeb Ahl al-Haq”, “Abolfazl Brigade”, “Khorassani Brigades”, and Hezbollah, to name a few.
The red lines
The fact that no Iranian politician has criticized Iran’s military, financial, intelligence and advisory involvement in the Syrian civil war suggests that there exist no differences among the factions of various Iranian political camps on Syria. In addition, Syria is the red line that reformist, moderates, or independents do not dare to cross. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly made it clear that the Islamic Republic will not abandon the Alawite state. Recently, He described Iran’s role in Syria as the fight between Islam and Kufr (disbelief). “The door for martyrdom, which was closed by the end of the Iranian-Iraqi war, is now open in Syria… Youth have persistently called for going to the battlefield in Syria, where Islam is fighting kufr as was the case during the Iranian-Iraqi war.” It follows that any political candidate daring to question Iran’s involvement in Syria will be indeed standing against Mr. Khamenei who enjoys the final say in Iran’s foreign policy. This will basically trigger the end of that political candidate’s career since the office of the supreme leader has major control over the political process. In addition, IRGC leaders have already consolidated their power in Syria making it clear that there exists no change of plans for Syria. Anyone who opposes their agenda will run the risk of standing against this military empire and powerful hard line organization which wields significant influence in other decisive hard line institutions such as the Judiciary, the Ministry of Intelligence (etela’at), the office of the supreme leader, and the Guardian Council. Furthermore, Iranian leaders and state-controlled media outlets have created a powerful narrative for Syria, aiming to impose fear in the public. Their argument is that if the Islamic Republic does not support the Syrian government, radical Islamist Sunni groups such as ISIS and Jubhat Al-Nusra will take control over the region, endangering the lives of Shiite communities and Iranians both at home and abroad. Hence, any candidate who opposes Iran’s engagement in Syria would be aligning himself or herself on the side of ISIS and terrorist groups. Finally, Iranian politicians across the political spectrum do share the same nationalistic and ethnic objectives when it comes to Iran’s hegemonic ambitions and pursuit of regional pre-eminence and supremacy. From their perspective, abandoning the Alawite government will result in empowerment of Sunni in Syria which will tip the balance of power in favor of Arab states and against Iran. The unison among Iran’s reformists, hardliners, principalists, moderates, and independent politicians will continue to last due to the above factors and their shared convergence of interests in keeping Assad in power.

Palestinians: The Right Time to Take Big Steps?
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/March 04/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7544/palestinians-big-steps
Despite the "official" surveys taken among Palestinians, which show support for Hamas, the residents of the West Bank are terrified that Hamas will gain control and destroy our lives and property, the way they did in the Gaza Strip.
The BDS organizations are trying to boycott products made in the West Bank, which only throws masses of Palestinians out of good jobs in an effort to force Israel into a hasty withdrawal that has no chance of taking place. The Israelis and everyone else remember all too well that the last Israeli withdrawals -- from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip -- led to the terrorist takeover of the vacuums created.
Ikrima Sabri, the former Mufti of Jerusalem, often said that Palestinians were better off with the Jews in charge of Al-Aqsa mosque and Jerusalem, because in the future they could be removed and killed off, but if the Crusaders returned to Jerusalem -- such as an international commission headed by the French -- it would be harder to get rid of them.
During a visit to Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Israel's Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu that now is not time to move forward with the "two-state solution" and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Merkel, evidently seeing Israel as a dam protecting Europe from Islamist extremists, told Netanyahu that while the Germans recognized the terrorist threat faced by Israel, and that a peace process had to be advanced based on two states for two peoples, now was not the right time to take big steps.
Agreed: It's not a good time to establish a Palestinian state. Pictured: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and German Chancellor Angela Merkel address a press conference in Berlin, Germany, on February 16, 2016. (Image source: Israel Government Press Office)
The Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip are well aware that they are hostages of the terrorist organizations, in particular Hamas. Jibril Rajoub, a senior official in the Palestinian Authority (PA), told Al-Jazeera TV the same thing just last week.
The Palestinians in the West Bank, regardless of public declarations, also secretly support security collaboration with Israel, which protects us from radical Islamist terrorism. Therefore, despite the "official" surveys taken among Palestinians, which show support for Hamas, the residents of the West Bank are terrified that Hamas will gain control and destroy our lives and property the way they did in the Gaza Strip. We do want a Palestinian state, but one that will preserve the lifestyle and accomplishments we have built over the years -- not a state that will have them fall to the horrors of Hamas and ISIS.
In light of the quiet, passive public support for the regime of Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas is inciting Palestinians against it. Hamas, in an attempt to overthrow the Palestinian Authority, is portraying Abbas's security forces as traitors who transmit information to Israel.
Like Germany -- and unlike Sweden and France -- Britain has recently instituted a more balanced policy. The UK has begun to fight the anti-Israel BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions) organizations. Matthew Hancock, Britain's Minister for the Cabinet Office, who coordinates activities between various government ministries, is advancing protocols to prevent the ongoing boycotts by the British establishment.
These BDS organizations are trying to boycott products made in the West Bank, but the boycott only throws masses of Palestinians out of good jobs and great benefits in an effort to force Israel into a hasty withdrawal that has no chance of taking place. The Israelis and everyone else remember all too well that the last Israeli withdrawals -- from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip -- were nothing more than case-studies for the terrorist takeover of the vacuums created, exactly the same way as the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq made room for the Islamic State (ISIS).
As Palestinians we know that the BDS may or may not harm Israel, but it does untold damage to the Palestinians who support their families by working in the settlement factories and would otherwise be unemployed and then, as a scarcity of jobs will have been created, hired by various terrorists. When the SodaStream factory moved out of the West Bank, 500 Palestinians lost their well-paid jobs.
In view of the current U.S. helplessness in dealing with the Russians, Iranians and Syrians, the Obama administration has now chosen to bare its fangs at Israel. Despite what are apparently his predictable personal objections, U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to sign into law the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act, which includes anti-BDS provisions. It introduces new policy language by including all "Israeli-controlled territories" as part of Israel. Meanwhile, the American customs authority is still continuing to enforce a 20-year-old law, marking products made in the West Bank and hurting Palestinians. Labeling products hurts the Palestinians, who then are driven look for work in the eager arms of the terrorist organizations radicalizing the region.
The French, as usual, slither and shift. A number of months ago, they tried to build up steam for an international commission of inquiry into the Al-Aqsa mosque. Both the Israelis and the Palestinians objected.
Ikrima Sabri, the former Mufti of Jerusalem, often said that Palestinians were better off with the Jews in charge of Al-Aqsa mosque and Jerusalem, because in the future they could be removed and killed off, but if the Crusaders returned to Jerusalem through the back door -- such as an international commission headed by the French -- it would be harder to get rid of them.
The French, fearing for their lives at the hands of their own local Islamist enclaves, are in dire straits and doggedly try one maneuver after another to appease them. In desperation, they have proposed peace negotiations for the Palestinians and Israel "with international mediation." They even brazenly suggested that if the negotiations failed, they would recognize the Palestinian state. The outcome is written on the wall: the Palestinians, who will have no reason to negotiate, will fall over themselves rushing to the conference, then automatically veto every proposal or possible compromise, and then receive the promised recognition of Palestine.
The French are masters of diplomatic flimflam: on the one hand, they will do anything to appease their own Islamists at the expense of Israel, and on the other, they know full well neither Israel nor any other Western country will accept their self-serving suggestion. The French keep revealing their duplicity again and again. They refuse to designate Iranian-backed Hezbollah as a terrorist organization; they instead call it a "political party," despite its full participation in slaughtering Sunni Muslims in Syria. Hezbollah is also one of the main actors pushing the countless asylum-seekers (and occasional ISIS operative) flooding Europe, Turkey and Jordan.
The atrocities committed today in the Middle East are the direct result of the refusal of Europe (including France) and the United States to intervene, and the stunning silence of the Arab states. Unwilling to fight ISIS, they are more than willing to condemn, slander and criticize Israel, while the Middle East slips into anarchy.
The result for us Palestinians will be bloodletting, either in the Hamas-Fatah rivalry, or as collateral damage in the Israelis' war against Islamist terrorism, or, when the Palestinian Authority falls, at the hands of ISIS and Al-Qaeda and the Al-Nusra Front as they sweep through the Jordan Valley on their way to attack Israel.
Al-Jazeera TV is also trying to serve its master, Qatar, radicalize the Palestinians by saying that the Palestinian Authority's security coordination with Israel, which benefits everyone here by keeping out Islamic terrorists, is betraying the Palestinian cause. In addition, Israeli intelligence, by saying that a seaport for Hamas should be built is, for some mysterious reason, trying to kill off the Palestinian Authority by strengthening Hamas. Both the Egyptians and we Palestinians -- and even the Israelis -- do not need Hamas strengthened at our expense. Hamas and the many other extremist organizations that have infiltrated the Gaza Strip, including ISIS, are what enable Israelis to justify their security concerns as well as those regarding peace negotiations with the Palestinians, and that prevent a withdrawal from the West Bank. Given the current situation in the Middle East, Angela Merkel was correct. It is not the right time now to take big steps.
Bassam Tawil is a scholar based in the Middle East.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Egyptian MP Ousted From Parliament In Normalization Controversy After Meeting With Israeli Ambassador
Special Dispatch/MEMRI/March 4, 2016 Special Dispatch No.6337
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/03/04/memri-egyptian-mp-ousted-from-parliament-in-normalization-controversy-after-meeting-with-israeli-ambassador/
In recent days, Egyptian politics have been roiled by a meeting between Egyptian MP and media figure Tawfiq Okasha and Israeli Ambassador to Egypt Haim Koren, as well as by reports of sports relations between the two countries. The controversy centers on the question of whether and to what degree Egypt ought to normalize relations with Israel.
A colorful figure, Okasha, owner of the Al-Faraeen TV satellite channel, is an expert at generating provocations that dominate news cycles. After being elected to parliament in late 2015, he announced that he would resign and leave the country because he was being targeted for arrest or assassination by Egyptian security forces.[1] Then, after withdrawing this announcement, he ran for the post of parliament speaker, although he had no real chance of winning.[2] He continued to make headlines after the new parliament convened: on one occasion he taped his mouth shut to protest allegedly being silenced during the parliamentary session.[3]
Okasha has a fairly fixed political orientation. He is a staunch opponent of the January 25 revolution in Egypt and of the Arab Spring revolutions in general; in a forthcoming book, he depicts them as a product of a joint plan by the Zionists, Freemasons, and U.S. Christian right to destroy the Arab countries.[4] In light of this view, it seemed even stranger that on February 25, 2016, it was reported that he had invited the Israeli ambassador to dinner. Explaining the invitation, he said that he wanted to clarify a number of points about his book, since he had heard that Amb. Koren is an academic. To those who objected to his meeting with Amb. Koren, Okasha said that if they opposed it so much, they should rescind the Camp David Accords.[5]
Following the dinner, Okasha related what the two had discussed. He said that Amb. Koren had expressed a desire for good relations with the Egyptians, and that he had responded with a number of demands: Israel must resolve the issue of Ethiopia’s construction of a new dam which Egypt fears will reduce the Nile waters reaching it; Israel must relinquish the damages awarded it by international arbitration after Egypt cancelled, in 2012, a natural gas contract; and Israel must pay damages for its air force’s bombing of an Egyptian school in 1970.[6]
Okasha’s meeting with the ambassador infuriated Egyptian opponents of normalization with Israel. In advance of the February 28, 2016 parliamentary session, some of Okasha’s colleagues called for sanctions against him. The issue of the meeting was not at first set to come up for debate, so as not to embarrass the state which maintains diplomatic relations with Israel,[7] but it was eventually put on the agenda. Knowing that he would face criticism, Okasha called on his supporters to protest outside the parliament.[8] Inside the building, the debate on the meeting deteriorated to the point where the Nasserist MP Kamal Ahmad struck Okasha with his shoe. Several MPs demanded that Okasha be forced to resign from the parliament, and eventually it was decided that a special committee would investigate him about the meeting.[9]
The committee concluded that by meeting with a foreign ambassador and discussing the Ethiopian dam with him without the executive branch’s authorization, Okasha had broken the law and harmed Egypt’s national security and the principle of separation of powers. The committee recommended excluding him from parliamentary debates until the end of the current session, a period of about nine months. However, the parliament rejected this recommendation and, following a stormy debate on March 2, 2016, decided to expel him from parliament altogether. The two-thirds majority required for this decision was easily obtained: 465 of the 490 MPs present supported it, with 16 opposing it and nine abstaining.
Okasha’s meeting with Amb. Koren is not the only recent event that has returned the issue of normalization to the headlines in Egypt. In mid-February Egyptian Football Association spokesman Azmi Mujahid said on his talk show on Al-Assema TV that there is no reason why Egyptian teams should not play in Israel, and that Qatar is a greater enemy of Egypt than Israel is.[10]
Additionally, on February 26, 2016, the Egyptian daily Al-Watan published documents that, it said, prove that the Egyptian Zamalek SC football team had acquired Zambian player Emmanuel Mayuka with the help of mediation by Israeli agent Nir Karin, who had been paid $300,000 in the deal. The daily published a contract with Karin’s signature in Hebrew next to the signature of Zamalek SC chairman and Egyptian MP Mortada Mansour.[11] While Mansour claimed that his signature was forged, the newspaper insisted that this was the contract that had been filed with FIFA.[12]
Alongside the parliamentary protests and actions against Okasha, many journalists and public figures addressed the issue of normalization in the Egyptian press. Most of the articles condemned normalization, calling it morally reprehensible, evoking the memory of those killed in wars with Israel, claiming that Israel seeks to harm the Arab countries, and stressing that while the peace accords may be binding on the Egyptian state, they are not binding on the Egyptian people. Others wrote in favor of normalization, calling it a natural and useful collaboration to promote joint interests, and expressed regret that Egypt still apparently fears peace.
Following are excerpts from articles in the Egyptian press on the topic of normalizing relations with Israel:
Professor Of Talmudic Studies At Ain Shams University: Normalization Was Forced On Egypt Under The Peace Agreement, But Was Not Forced On The People; The Struggle Between Us And Israel Is An Existential One
In an interview with the daily Al-Watan, Leila Abu Al-Magd, a professor of Talmudic studies and Hebrew literature at Ain Shams University, told journalist Muhammad Al-Laithi,: “We have used the word normalization so much that it has become elastic and indefinable, and has thus lost its meaning. It is clear to all that as part of the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel, normalization was forced on the Egyptian state. Had we had control of our land, we never would have signed this agreement. Normalization was forced on the state – but it was not forced on the people, and they can support or oppose agreements signed by the president…
“Among those who maintain relationships with Israelis are businessmen who claim [in their own defense] that the state itself has a relationship with [Israel], so why shouldn’t they be able to? These people are operating in pragmatic self-interest…
“I oppose any ties with the Israelis. For example, economic ties [with them] constitute support for the Israeli economy, thus extending the life of this country, which harms my own country. There is something selfish in the behavior of businessmen who maintain a relationship with the Zionist entity while looking out solely for their own interests. I do not agree to any ties with the Israelis, for several reasons…
“The struggle between us and Israel is an existential one… We and they can never live side by side as two peoples, because Israel’s purpose is to destroy the Arab homeland. They started [this] by dividing Iraq, and this is clear from the Bible. [They do this] because of their desire to spread ruin and chaos, in accordance with their belief in the concept of ‘tohu vavohu‘, which means ‘chaos and void,’ as is also shown in the book of Revelation and the Talmud. They speak of ‘the chaos before Creation,’ which they strive to attain by means of ‘creative chaos’ in the region, which will be followed by destruction. This will eliminate the other races, crown the strongest race – their own – and eventually lead to ‘chaos and void’. This is their plot, which they are [now] completing, but its completion depends on us. “If we wake up and defend [ourselves], we can thwart this plot. Otherwise, they will continue with it.”[13]
Journalist Muhammad Al-Laithi: Egypt’s Younger Generation Is Unfamiliar With The Bloody History Of the Occupation State
Journalist Muhammad Al-Laithi, Al-Magd’s interviewer, wrote in a separate piece: “The term ‘normalization with Israel’ has recently lost its meaning, with the appearance of a generation, some of which – mostly the young people – likely does not understand the bloody history of the occupation state. This is in addition to several examples [of people] who sparked a debate with their willingness to have a relationship with the Zionist entity, most recently MP Tawfiq Okasha, who hosted Israeli Ambassador to Egypt Haim Koren at his home. Another example are Zamalek SC’s ties to an Israeli agent in the acquisition ofZambian player Emannuel Mayuka. These two events triggered widespread criticism of the MP and of the ‘white’ club [i.e. Zamalek SC].
“On the other hand, some of the supporters [of normalization] respond that ‘the state signed a peace agreement, so why shouldn’t we maintain a relationship [with Israel]?’ Thus, ‘normalization’ has become a wornterm with unclear boundaries. Technological advancement has also made espionage easier, in light of the appearance of social media websites, which are fertile ground for various intelligence apparatuses to gather information and recruit spies.”[14]
Al-Yawm Al-Sabi’ Article: Unfortunately, Much Of The Egyptian People Are Captive To Okasha’s Fantasies
In contrast to those who viewed Okasha’s dinner with the Israeli ambassador and the subsequent fallout as just another chapter in the fight over normalization, Al-Yawm Al-Sabi’ columnist Wael Al-Samri highlighted the affair’s unique attributes: “Tawfiq Okasha… believes that American Masonic Zionism… was responsible for the January [2011] revolution [in Egypt] and that it motivated hundreds of youths to come to Al-Tahrir Square. [In his view] the revolution was ‘in the service of foreign interests’ with close ties to Israeli intelligence, and in it hundreds of ‘agents’ were killed [i.e. the youth who were killed were really 'agents'], other ‘agents’ were imprisoned, and the sacred struggle against still more ‘agents’ continues in full force, to purge Egypt of this gang of ‘agents.’
“Sadly, large sectors of Egyptians believe these fantasies, which have grown so much that those who peddle them have reached the most important circle of decision-makers in Egypt – that is, the parliament, which is rife with supporters of the Mubarak regime who attack the January Revolution and accuse Egypt’s young people of treason…
“Some youth are even imprisoned – and Egyptian society is satisfied, at peace with and welcoming of this – because the Okashites have persuaded the Egyptians that [these youth] are ‘traitors, agents, and mercenaries’ and that they are taking orders from the U.S. Embassy and meeting at the Israeli Embassy.
“I am burning with the desire to hear the Okashites’ thoughts on what their senior figure [Okasha] did a few days ago when he fell into the arms of the Israeli ambassador, talking with him for hours at his home as they ‘ate, drank, and laughed.’ If we were to believe that the January [Revolution] youth who are currently behind bars in dark prison are indeed agents in contact with Israel, as Okasha said, then what precisely is the definition of what Okasha [himself] did?”[15]
Al-Masri Al-Yawm Owner: Why Do We Still Fear Peace With Israel?
Others criticized those who attacked Okasha when the regime itself, which they support, maintainsties with Israel.
Al-Masri Al-Yawm owner Salah Diab, who writes under the pen name “Newton,” called the accusations levelled at Okasha “idiotic” and asked why Egyptians still fear the peace agreement with Israel: “Tawfiq Okasha’s meeting with the Israeli ambassador is like a rock thrown into the murky waters of Egypt-Israel relations. Many decades have passed since the [signing of the] peace agreement, and we still avoid, or fear, the issue…
“Accusing Tawfiq Okasha of ‘normalization’ is a ready-made and idiotic accusation – much like other [widespread] accusations, such as ‘relics’ [of the Mubarak regime], ‘agent of the security forces’, ‘capitalist’, ‘[pro-]American’. But the oldest accusation is ‘supports normalization.’ This is an accusation that has lost none of its luster, despite 40 years of overuse – as if we have lost confidence in ourselves as a government and a people…
“The response by many MPs and journalists is identical to their response in similar incidents; the scenario recurs, and is both canned and extremely tedious. I often wonder: Why do we waste our time like this? What is all the fuss about? Is it to distract us from more important problems? Is it to distract public opinion? Are we really so angry over Okasha’s meeting with the Israeli ambassador, when Al-Sisi previously accepted this ambassador’s letter of credentials? Do we want Israel to continue to be the hook on which we hang our failure after all these years, and after all this experience, from war to peace? …
“If we fear peace so much, then that is a disaster. And if we are using Okasha and his meeting [as a pretext] to avoid discussing more important matters, then it is even more disastrous.”[16]
Professor At American University In Cairo On Okasha Critics: The Height Of Political Prostitution
On his Facebook page, Ashraf Al-Sherif, a political science professor at the American University in Cairo, argued that those who support the regime while attacking Okasha over normalization are hypocrites: “One of the most deplorable displays in Egypt is the artificial hubbub created by some elements in the Egyptian establishment because of the ties between a certain public figure and Israel. This is a cheap, comical vaudeville show, not a melodrama – because what Okasha or others have done is not treason but rather natural cooperation with a country that is an ally of the Egyptian ‘Camp David’ state, in the context of this state’s agreements, interests, and ties of a security, strategic, economic, regional, and international nature.
“This is cooperation carried out by everyone in Egypt, from the president, the armed forces, the security and intelligence apparatuses, and the government and its bureaucracy to the public and private economic sector, and to the liberal and conservative cultural elites, with [just] a fringe of clichéd rhetorical objection by middle class institutions and [professional] unions.
“If anyone in this play is stupid and a poor actor, it is the group of nationalist and Nasserist intellectuals and politicians who spit on a poor powerless author like [author and playwright] ‘Ali Salem [a well-known supporter of normalization with Israel] or on someone like Tawfiq Okasha, a puppet-show clown and servant of the security apparatuses. At the same time, they are not only completely reconciled with the pillars, institutions, and policies of the Camp David state, they [even] justify it and enthusiastically propagandize for it… This is the height of political prostitution…”[17]
Endnotes:
[1] Rassd.com, December 26, 2015.
[2] Al-Ahram (Egypt), January 10, 2016.
[3] Al-Ahram (Egypt), January 13, 2016.
[4] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi’ (Egypt), January 19, 2016.
[5] Al-Watan (Egypt), February 24, 2016.
[6] Rassd.com, February 25, 2016.
[7] Al-Watan (Egypt), February 27, 2016.
[8] Al-Watan (Egypt), February 28, 2016.
[9] Al-Ahram (Egypt), February 29, 2016.
[10] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), February 17, 2016.
[11] Al-Watan (Egypt), February 26, 2016.
[12] Al-Watan (Egypt), February 29, 2016.
[13] Al-Watan (Egypt), February 27, 2016.
[14] Al-Watan (Egypt), February 27, 2016.
[15] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi’ (Egypt), February 27, 2016.
[16] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), February 27, 2016.
[17] Facebook.com/profile.php?id=919538, February 28, 2016.
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Why canceled Arab League summit should worry Israelis
Akiva Eldar/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
The news of Moroccan King Mohammed VI’s decision not to host the 2016 Arab League summit passed under the radar of Israeli politicians and media. Seemingly, it is an internal Arab issue. Why would Israel care that the Moroccan Foreign Ministry thinks there’s no point in another banal event to analyze the “bitter situation of divergences and divisions” among members of the Arab League? So what if Morocco thinks it would be a waste of time to hear speeches “that give a false impression of unity” and make meaningless reaffirmations of prior decisions? What does it have to do with us Israelis? Well, it does have something to do with us. More to the point, it should have had to do with us.
One of those prior decisions brought forward for reaffirmation at such Arab League summits is the one approved at the 2002 meeting in Beirut accepting the Saudi-brokered Arab Peace Initiative. The resolution on the initiative has been reaffirmed at every summit since, calling for peace and normalization with Israel in exchange for withdrawal from territory occupied in 1967, the creation of a sustainable Palestinian state and a just and agreed-upon resolution of the refugee problem on the basis of UN Resolution 194. Although no Israeli government over the past 14 years has even bothered to hold a debate on the initiative, the summit has nonetheless reconfirmed it year after year. Also of note, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation has never retracted its decision to adopt the initiative.
The loss of faith in an opportunity to revive bilateral negotiations with the Palestinians under the leadership of President Mahmoud Abbas has once again made a regional approach fashionable, after it first emerged at the Madrid summit 25 years ago. Usually, suggestions to invite the leaders of “moderate” Arab nations to join Palestinian leaders around the negotiation table are accompanied by plans to duplicate the 2005 unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip.
At the diplomatic conference of the Labor Party last month, Chairman Isaac Herzog presented the idea of convening a “regional security summit.” According to him, such a gathering could bring about regional cooperation, isolate Hamas and the Islamic State (IS) and address the problem of Gaza. Herzog said, “Only separation between us and them [the Palestinians] would encourage moderate Arab nations to come talk with us about regional cooperation.”
In June 2015, Yair Lapid, chairman of Yesh Atid, had suggested a regional conference as an alternative to bilateral talks with the Palestinians. “The only way to achieve the two-state-solution is to give up on direct talks and manage the negotiations through a regional conference supported by the United States,” claimed Lapid. “If today there’s no proposal on the table that the two sides could accept, we should turn to the Arab League … to create a regional summit. … There is no Palestinian leader — and there won’t be one in the foreseeable future — who could delve into the necessary compromises. On the Israeli side, too, a commitment to the principle of two states is currently declared only with weak language.” Like Herzog, the former minister of finance suggested that in tandem with the regional process, Israel should begin a process of unilateral separation from the Palestinians.
A year before that, in June 2014 at a conference in Herzliya, Avigdor Liberman, leader of Yisrael Beitenu, had said, “What’s most important to Israel is not to be an isolated island of growth, but to create alliances and dialogues. But here in this region we are an isolated island, and today there’s a big opportunity to establish a regional agreement.”
In his scenario, Liberman, then the foreign minister, went so far as to envision including Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in a regional arrangement. “The fact that we could get on a plane and fly to Riyadh or Doha, it would be a totally different reality,” he said. “It’s much more important to achieve agreement with those nations, and the agreement with the Palestinians must be only part of it.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu isn’t missing from the list of regional peace advocates. In May 2015, he said that Israel’s common interests with Arab nations against Iran “create opportunities to advance alliances and perhaps even advance peace.” Even earlier, in July 2009, Netanyahu had called on Arab nations to advance the Arab Peace Initiative to achieve a comprehensive, regional peace. On that occasion, an event commemorating Egypt's National Day at the Egyptian ambassador’s residence in Herzliya, Netanyahu also said that he was pleased with relations between Israel and Egypt, “but I think we could take them even further. We’ll work to reach regional peace soon.” In the meantime, Netanyahu worked to advance the construction of thousands of housing units in the West Bank, thus sabotaging the chances of creating a sustainable Palestinian state and realizing the Arab Peace Initiative.
The cancellation of the Marrakesh summit is sad news for those Israelis who recognize the unique opportunity in the Arab League’s peace initiative. The king of Morocco’s unusual decision symbolizes the erosion of the Arab League's status since the Arab Spring. The internal conflicts within the Arab and Muslim worlds around the war in Syria, the strengthening of IS and the instability in Iraq, Libya and Yemen have pushed the Palestinian problem to the margins of the Arab and Muslim agenda. In contrast, the “there is no partner for negotiations” camp, for whom the Arab Peace Initiative represents a threat to the Israeli-Palestinian status quo, can breathe a slight sigh of relief.
The downfall of the Arab Peace Initiative has many authors: Israeli leaders, who clung to the paradigm of bilateral feet-dragging (stalling any advancement toward a renewal of talks); Palestinian leaders, who sacrifice the public interest to sustain the Palestinian Authority; the international community, which doesn’t dare to think outside the old diplomatic box; and Arab countries, which have failed at marketing their initiative to the Israeli public.
Seven years ago, in July 2009, Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa published an op-ed in the Washington Post titled “The Arabs Should Talk with the Israelis.” He argued, “In order to achieve peace, we should do more.” There is nothing left but to hope that the road there remains open.

Why high inflation may return to Iran
Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
TEHRAN, Iran — Top Iranian banking executives agreed Feb. 13 to cut the deposit rate of one-year rial saving accounts by two percentage points — from 20% to 18% — for the second time this Iranian calendar year (ending March 19). The decision came after persistent calls by monetary authorities on banks to set interest rates based on inflation, which now hovers around 12% — down from 40% in mid-2013, when President Hassan Rouhani was elected.
A day after the announcement, the Money and Credit Council approved the suggested rate, saying all commercial banks and financial institutions will have to comply as of Feb. 21. The council also lowered the business loan rate ceiling from 24% to 22%, in an attempt to make loans more affordable. Abdonasser Hemmati, head of the state banks coordination council and CEO of Bank Melli, on Feb. 13 warned financial institutions against violating the imposed rate cuts. Three days earlier, in a TV program broadcast on state television, he had said that the ideal deposit rate is 16%, given the lower inflation.
The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) is urging banks to slash deposit rates in the hopes that money locked in savings accounts will be channeled to manufacturing and capital markets — both sectors of which are in desperate need of a financial boost.
Most Iranian banks are now reconnected to global transaction network SWIFT after a four-year hiatus due to sanctions, and the government is also vowing to repay a major part of its debt to the banking system. These developments are seen as incentives for banks, which will probably see a fall in money cost and a rise in financial resources. The only major problem yet to be addressed is the issue of non-performing loans, which are estimated at one quadrillion rials ($33.1 billion). Officials hope that as the economy recovers in the post-sanctions era, industrialists will be able to gradually repay their debts to banks.
Yet, what seems to have been absent in remarks made by Iranian banking officials in recent weeks is the potential negative impact of the falling interest rates on inflation. Indeed, the CBI is now being warned by some analysts against looming growth in the country’s money supply and a possible return of high inflation.
According to the latest CBI data, money supply grew by 27.2% in the 12-month period ending Jan. 20 — the highest in the past 12 to 18 months. Money supply has grown every month the current Iranian calendar year (that started March 20, 2015) by 2% on average, but in the month to Jan. 20, it grew 0.8% higher than the average. In this vein, there are fears that the money supply will increase from around 9.5 quadrillion rials ($314.9 billion) in the month to Jan. 20 to 10 quadrillion rials ($331.47 billion) by year-end (March 19), said Abolghasem Hakimipour, a lecturer at Allameh Tabataba'i University, in a recent interview with Mehr News Agency.
Of note, money supply has increased by more than 4 quadrillion rials ($132.59 billion) since Rouhani took office as president in July 2013, according to Masoud Mirkazemi, a parliamentarian and former minister of petroleum. Yet surprisingly, inflation has been plunging ever since. One of the reasons that inflation has decreased — despite the ongoing growth of money supply — is that a large part of the money supply is locked in banks. Indeed, nearly 86% of the money supply, in the first and second months of the current Iranian fiscal year, pertained to money held in long-term saving accounts, which can be converted into cash, with a delayed inflationary impact. Hence, the CBI must be on alert. Since the deposit rate is set to fall further, more cash is likely to leave the banks. And as the money supply determines the level of prices and inflation in the long run, the CBI has to be very careful while adopting an expansionary policy to guarantee stability in the manufacturing sector.
As a solution to the looming crisis, some economists suggest that policymakers should avoid excessive lending to the government. Reza Boustani, an economic analyst with the CBI, noted in an editorial published by leading economic newspaper Donya-e Eqtesad on Feb. 16 that the excessive borrowing of the government and commercial banks from the Central Bank will definitely lead to an increase in the money supply. He warned that in the medium term, when the CBI will want to change policy and cut off the money supply, it will fail to make the government repay its debt. On the contrary, lending to commercial banks could be much safer, he wrote, arguing that banks can provide high-quality collateral in exchange for the loans they receive, enabling the CBI to control the money supply and thereby the level of prices just the way it plans. Boustani’s suggestion seems to be reasonable as banks have already excessively invested in non-banking assets, including land and property, during late 2012 and early 2013 when housing prices increased rapidly. Those assets can now be used as collateral with the Central Bank.
Among other steps policymakers have taken in the past year to help boost lending are the lowering of interbank lending rates from 29% early in the current Iranian fiscal year to 18.5-19%, and also the cutting of the reserve requirement ratio from 13% to 10%. These developments as well as the recent lowering of interest rates, coupled with the sanctions relief and the expansionary policy adopted in the second half of the fiscal year, may ultimately lead to a sudden increase of cash in the economy. Given the vulnerability of the Iranian economy to high inflation, policymakers must thus be on alert and plan ahead to neutralize possible harm to investors and industry alike.

As economic crisis continues, will Kurdish peshmerga desert?
Shelly Kittleson/Al-Monitor/March 04/16
KIRKUK, Iraq — An unexpected shot rang out as a peshmerga officer pointed over sandbags at a black Islamic State flag in the distance.
“Just shooting at a bird,” he said, swiveling around to see what the other men were doing below, near a cluster of deserted mud and brick homes in the closed military zone on the wide, oil-rich plains of northern Iraq. He said that the other soldiers seen on the way to the front line wandering around abandoned, heavily damaged villages had been looking for firewood for warmth on that February night.
Soldiers warmed their hands at a small fire built below an earthen embankment as dusk fell. Others mulled around, smoking and chatting, Kalashnikovs slung across shoulders, while one tried to fix a heavy machine gun pointing toward IS-held territory.
This front line is near Kirkuk, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) north of Baghdad and about 90 kilometers (56 miles) south of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) capital, Erbil, long a source of contention due to its proximity to some of the country’s most important oil wells. It's mostly quiet at the moment, one officer told Al-Monitor, other than occasional sniper fire. But the bombing of IS targets by the international coalition continues.
The KRG has been experiencing a severe economic crisis after the freezing of its share of the $102 billion federal budget in 2014, 17% of which was earmarked for the KRG, and a steep drop in the price of oil, which has long been its main source of revenue.
Many public employees, including police, have begun moonlighting as taxi drivers. One of them told Al-Monitor he had not been paid in six months and was now working three days a week as an officer and three as a driver.
Several protests have been held in recent months over unpaid wages, and Kurdish officials have warned that the economic crisis could increase desertions from the peshmerga, who blocked roads in Sulaimaniyah in February to demand their salaries.
Gen. Wasta Rasul, who oversees Sector 4 of the KRG’s eight front-line zones, told Al-Monitor back at the K1 base northwest of Kirkuk that he commanded about 23,000 peshmerga, but that “only about a third are on duty at any given time, due to the ministry’s orders,” because of the economic difficulties. He said that salaries hadn’t been paid in around three months, adding that a private is due around $400 per month.
Nevertheless, he said, his troops had taken an area of “around 120 kilometers [75 miles]” in about six months.
Several damaged Humvees that the United States gave to the Iraqi army but that the peshmerga say they took in the fighting against IS sit awaiting repairs. Every military vehicle seems to have a cracked windshield.
At a nearby base, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan commander and former Minister of Peshmerga Sheikh Jaafar Sheikh Mustafa complained, “We haven’t seen any cooperation with the Iraqi government. When we ask for things, they just ignore us.” He cautioned, however, that at this point any further advances would have to be made in coordination with the Iraqi central government, given the “situation with Shiite militias.”
He told Al-Monitor that though there was currently no fighting with the mainly Shiite militias of the Popular Mobilization Units in the nearby flashpoint town of Tuz Khormato, the situation there “is very fragile.”
The string of clashes beginning in October last year between the Popular Mobilization Units and peshmerga have been quelled, but rumors of extremely high levels of disappearances and sectarian-based kidnappings in the town mean “we don’t know when it will start again,” Mustafa said. For example, he noted, if the Shiite Turkmens find an Arab Sunni in the mixed-ethnicity town, “they will kidnap him.”
“It’s a mess,” he said of the various groups that make up the Popular Mobilization Units, noting that there is no clear chain of command and they all acted independently to some degree. “Though when it comes to fighting against us, they all work together,” he said.
As for an Amnesty International report released in January that accused the peshmerga of involvement in home demolitions and forced displacement of Arab communities, both Mustafa and Rasul said that the international organization “doesn’t seem to understand how dangerous IS is,” and that the level of destruction was due to the fact that the jihadis “hide everywhere and fight to the death,” leaving areas filled with explosives. No IS prisoners were taken in his area for this reason, he said.
Mustafa said that the peshmerga took IS prisoners in other sections under his command, but that “about 80% of our losses are to improvised explosive devices and booby-trapped buildings, and only about 20% of the deaths are due to shooting, mortar rounds, etc.”
The K1 base, where Rasul is stationed, was initially an Iraqi forces air base and taken over by US forces in 2003 only to later be handed back to Iraqi forces. The peshmerga took it over in 2014, reportedly at the request of the Iraqi prime minister at that time, Nouri al-Maliki, after government troops abandoned their positions in Mosul, allowing it to fall into the hands of IS.
Rasul noted that several foreign armed forces had been helping the peshmerga there “for over a year, with everything — training, weapons, etc.,” citing “Americans, Italians, French, Norwegians and others.”
He said that they were grateful for all the help they were receiving, but that the economic situation in the country remained a major problem.
Meanwhile, a trench currently being dug along the front lines held by Kurdish forces — from Khanaqin near the border with Iran across the disputed territory south of Kirkuk and all the way to Rabia, a northwestern town on the border with Syria — has led some to call it an attempt to set down the border of a future independent Kurdistan state.
In response to this contention, Mustafa said, “All Kurds grow up with the idea that the Hamrin Mountains are the border of Kurdistan.”
The Hamrin Mountains extend from Diyala province bordering Iran northwest to the Tigris River, crossing the northern Salahuddin and southern Kirkuk provinces.
Referring to a much-debated referendum on Kurdish independence from Iraq — first proposed in 2014 before IS attacks led to a postponement, and for which KRG President Massoud Barzani renewed a call in early February — Mustafa said that they had “shed too much blood to remain under the control of a different country.”