LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 27/16
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.june27.16.htm
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Bible Quotations For Today
The harvest is
plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to
send out labourers into his harvest. Go on your way
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke
10/01-07/:"After this the Lord appointed seventy others and sent them on ahead
of him in pairs to every town and place where he himself intended to go. He said
to them, ‘The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the
Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest. Go on your way. See,
I am sending you out like lambs into the midst of wolves. Carry no purse, no
bag, no sandals; and greet no one on the road. Whatever house you enter, first
say, "Peace to this house!" And if anyone is there who shares in peace, your
peace will rest on that person; but if not, it will return to you. Remain in the
same house, eating and drinking whatever they provide, for the labourer deserves
to be paid. Do not move about from house to house."
You are our letter, written on our hearts, to be known and read by all;
and you show that you are a letter of Christ, prepared by us
heartsSecond
Letter to the Corinthians 03/01-06/:"Are we beginning to commend ourselves
again? Surely we do not need, as some do, letters of recommendation to you or
from you, do we? You yourselves are our letter, written on our hearts, to be
known and read by all; and you show that you are a letter of Christ, prepared by
us, written not with ink but with the Spirit of the living God, not on tablets
of stone but on tablets of human hearts. Such is the confidence that we have
through Christ towards God. Not that we are competent of ourselves to claim
anything as coming from us; our competence is from God, who has made us
competent to be ministers of a new covenant, not of letter but of spirit; for
the letter kills, but the Spirit gives life."
Pope Francis's Tweet For Today
May the Armenian Church walk in peace and may the communion between us be
complete
Que l’Eglise Arménienne marche dans la paix et que la communion entre nous soit
pleine
لتسر الكنيسة الأرمنيّة بسلام ولتكن الشركة بيننا كاملة.
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials
from miscellaneous sources published on June 26-27/16
What is behind the Kataeb Party’s withdrawal from government/Mohamad
Kawas/The Arab Weekly/June 26/16
In first, Hezbollah confirms all financial support comes from Iran/By Dr. Majid/Rafizadeh/al
Arabiya/26 June/16
Lebanon and Jordan may collapse under a new wave of refugees/Dr. Azeem
Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
How far can Israel and the Arab states go/Bruce Maddy-Weitzman/Jerusalem
Post/June 26/16
10 years after Second Lebanon War, for a bereaved mother the pain is only worse/
Ben Hartman/Jerusalem Post/June 26/16
Egypt: New Attacks on Christians/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/June 26/16
Erdoğan’s Power Grab: Is a Military Coup Possible in Turkey/Middle East
Briefing/June 26/16
Why Fighting ISIL Messaging After its Defeat is Difficult/Middle East
Briefing/June 26/16
Iran’s Hard-liners Maintain Grip on Power/Middle East Briefing/June 26/16
Syria: What the Dissent in the US State Department Tells Us/Middle East
Briefing/June 26/16
Terrorist Spillover in Jordan/David Schenker/Cipher Brief/The Washington
Institute/June 26/16
Israel's Leviathan Gas Field: Politics and Reality/Simon Henderson/The
Washington Institute/June 26/16
Slouching towards a not so brave new world/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
A twist of fate called Brexit/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
Twin brothers kill their parents, as terrorism sneaks into our homes/Turki
Aldakhil/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on
June 26-27/16
What is behind the Kataeb Party’s
withdrawal from government?
Hezbollah brushes off US sanctions, says money comes via Iran
Hizbullah Recovers Bodies of Three Fighters Killed in Aleppo
Brexit, Hizbullah Preoccupation with Syria to Further 'Delay' Presidential Vote
Jumblat Hits Out at Hariri over ex-PM's Iqlim al-Kharroub Speech
Bassil Says FPM to Seek Ban on Syrian Refugee Encampments, Shops
Health Ministry Shuts Dental Clinic Operated by Syrian Doctor
Spanish Peacekeeper Commits Suicide at Ibl al-Saqi UNIFIL Base
In first, Hezbollah confirms all financial support comes from Iran
Lebanon and Jordan may collapse under a new wave of refugees
AlRahi from Waterville: Rising of religious extremism and growing fundamentalist
movements are causing the migration of Christians and others from the East
EU Delegation Head marks International Day in Support of Victims of Torture
Harb honors his electoral machine: I hope Interior Minister would take measures
to terminate North Governor, Our opponents ought to be honest in confrontation
Israeli drone circles over Southern regions
Lebanese Army arrests 24 Syrians for illegal entry into Lebanon
UNIFIL announces death of Spanish soldier
Bassil: We want a president with a preponderant majority
Hariri from Akkar: We want to prepare our youth for life and creativity not for
death and war
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
June 26-27/16
Vatican hits back at Turkey for calling pope 'crusader'
Russian, Regime Raids Kill 82 in IS-Held East Syria
Iraq declares end of Fallujah battle against ISIS
EU vote triggers open conflict in Britain's main parties
Two million sign UK petition for second Brexit vote
Kerry in Rome for tense Netanyahu meeting
Israel and Turkey to hold normalization talks
Turkey: Pope’s genocide declaration bears stamp of ‘crusades’ mentality’
Links From Jihad Watch Site for
June 26-27/16
Pakistani Muslim leader: “Time is not far when the entire Western
civilization would fall”
London church opens doors for Muslims, hosts grand Iftar
Syria: “Moderate” Muslims slit Christian’s throat, boast “Jesus did not come to
save him”
Members of U.S. Congress investigating UNRWA for incitement to jihad terrorism
India: Muslims riot, attack police, torch bus and building over rumor of torn
Qur’an pages
Oklahoma Muslim leaders say ‘sanctity of life’ outranks faith stance against
homosexuality
Iran authorities confiscate dogs in crackdown on ‘vulgar Western culture’
Idaho Muslim migrant sex assault case: Obama-appointed prosecutor threatens
community
Petition for new Brexit vote gets 39,411 signatures from Vatican City – pop. 800
After Paris and Brussels jihad massacres, Europe to hold “Islamophobia” summit
Reading the Qur’an during Ramadan 22: Juz Wa-man yaqnut
Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan: jihad terrorist havens and
threats to US
June 26-27/16
What is behind the Kataeb Party’s withdrawal from government?
Mohamad Kawas/The Arab
Weekly/June 26/16
Beirut - The leader of Lebanon’s Kataeb Party, Sami Gemayel, recently announced
that Labour Minister Sejaan Qazzi and Economy Minister Alain Hakim would resign
from the Tammam Salam government. Qazzi subsequently said he would not fulfil
these directives and was suspended by the Kataeb Party.
Gemayel sought to portray the decision as based on what was best for Lebanon,
saying the party could not remain part of a weak, suspect government. These are
precisely the points raised by Salam, who acknowledged that his government was
unable to accomplish anything and criticised the country’s political elite for
prioritising partisan issues over national ones. The only logical explanation
for Kataeb’s withdrawal from the government is that Gemayel is gambling that
this will result in a shock that generates support for the party among
Christians. There is no risk that the move would torpedo the government, given
that Lebanon has been without a president for more than two years. Qazzi
justified his rebellion against the Kataeb move by saying this was a “political
decision” and calling for the party to be realistic, warning against a walkout
at a time when Lebanon is without a president. “I cannot resign at a time when
our country is facing such challenges,” he said, adding that, instead of
seeking to walk out, Kataeb should reinforce its position in the government and
defend party issues. Gemayel is the son of former president Amine Gemayel and
grandson of Kataeb Party founder Pierre Gemayel. The party has always played a
major role within Lebanon’s Christian community but the results of the recent
municipal elections demonstrated that the party is able to match the ambitions,
if not the actual strength, of the political alliance between Samir Geagea
(Lebanese Forces) and Michel Aoun (Free Patriotic Movement).
By withdrawing from government, Gemayel is trying to restore the party to past
glories from before the civil war when it occupied a key place in the Christian
consciousness. Today, the party has been supplanted by Geagea-Aoun partnership.
Observers said its role in government overestimates its actual strength and is
based on the absence of Lebanese Forces from the government coalition.
Gemayel’s decision to withdraw Kataeb from the government was likely not taken
with his father’s consent. Amine Gemayel, in his 70s and retired from politics,
has not issued a public statement confirming this but anybody who knows his
policies and decision-making knows that he would not endorse a withdrawal from
government when there is no prospect of a new government due to the absence of a
president. This withdrawal will only further halt government action.
Those who know Sami Gemayel, who took over the country’s oldest independent
Christian party in 2015, say he could be seeking to remove old-guard Kataeb
figures, who arrived during the era of his father or even his grandfather. The
Kataeb Party’s complicated and divisive history means that many members of the
party arrived under previous incarnations. This is something that perhaps
explains the quick decision to expel Qazzi from the party. Qazzi, 64, had been
involved in Kataeb since he was in his 20s and said that he was disinclined to
simply follow unilateral orders, all these years later, when he is a minister.
He has a storied history within Lebanese Christian politics and ties with other
Lebanese Christian parties, including Geagea’s Lebanese Forces. Given the
political realities in Lebanon, Lebanese Forces is a major rival to Kataeb,
which could have partly motivated his decision to expel Qazzi.
Gemayel has been quoted as saying that this withdrawal is not the last action
that will be taken by Kataeb and that Lebanon should expect new “surprises”
from his party. However, nothing has been leaked from Kataeb about its plans,
either because there is no specific strategy in mind or because the party’s
decision to withdraw from government was reactive, rather than pre-emptive.
Ultimately, the only thing that has changed is this: The Kataeb Party rid itself
of a figure it has long wanted out: Sejaan Qazzi.
Hezbollah brushes off US sanctions,
says money comes via Iran
AFP/June 24/16/Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Friday said his group would
not be affected by fresh US sanctions because it receives its money directly
from Iran, not via Lebanese banks. In a speech broadcast by the Shiite party's
Al-Manar station, Nasrallah brushed off assertions that Hezbollah would be hurt
by US sanctions on Lebanese financial institutions that work with the group. "We
do not have any business projects or investments via banks," Nasrallah said,
insisting the group "will not be affected.""We are open about the fact that Hezbollah's budget, its income, its expenses,
everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, are from the Islamic
Republic of Iran," he added. Iran was instrumental in Hezbollah's inception
three decades ago and has provided financial and military support to the group.
In December, the US Congress voted to impose sanctions on banks that deal with
Hezbollah, considered a "terrorist group" by the US. And last month, Lebanon's
central bank instructed the country's banks and financial institutions to comply
with the new measure against the Lebanese Shiite group.
Hezbollah has fiercely criticised the law and accused central bank governor Riad
Salameh of "yielding" to Washington's demands."As long as Iran has money, we
have money... Just as we receive the rockets that we use to threaten Israel, we
are receiving our money. No law will prevent us from receiving it," Nasrallah
said. The Hezbollah chief also warned that some banks were applying the law too
harshly and shutting down the accounts of Lebanese charities. Earlier this
month, a bomb exploded outside the Beirut headquarters of BLOM BANK, one of the
country's largest, wounding one person. Several Lebanese newspapers kn own to be
critical of Hezbollah said at the time the explosion was a "message" to banks
complying with the US ruling. Washington has labelled Hezbollah a global
terrorist group since 1995, accusing it of a long list of attacks including the
bombing of the US Embassy and Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983.
Hizbullah Recovers Bodies of
Three Fighters Killed in Aleppo
Naharnet/June 26/16/Hizbullah has managed to retrieve the corpses of three of
its fighters who were killed in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo, the
party announced late Saturday. The three combatants who hail from south Lebanon
were identified as Ramzi Mughniyeh from the town of Tayr Dibba, Wael Youssef
from the town of al-Bazouriyeh and Mohammed Hamza from the town of al-Sharqiyeh.
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had announced Friday that his party had
lost 26 fighters in fierce clashes in Aleppo province since the beginning of
June. A Hizbullah militant was also captured by rival groups while another is
missing, Nasrallah added, dismissing media reports that claimed a higher
casualty toll for Hizbullah. Nasrallah also noted that “617 militants, including
dozens of field commanders,” had been killed since the beginning of the fighting
in Aleppo on June 1. “More than 800 militants were wounded while over 80 armored
personnel carriers, tanks and vehicles were destroyed,” he added. Hizbullah's
chief also described the fight for the province of Aleppo as the “greatest
battle” to date in the Syrian war, noting that the outcome would have an impact
on “Damascus, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.”“After they failed to reach Damascus
from Lebanon, Jordan and the eastern front, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have
dispatched thousands of militants in a bid to launch an offensive from the
northern front,” he declared. Hizbullah's intervention in the Syrian conflict
alongside regime forces has helped Damascus achieve several military victories
and allowed the party to clear most of the Lebanese-Syrian border region from
rebels and jihadists. Since 2013, the Lebanese, Iran-backed party has sent
thousands of combatants -- between 5,000 and 6,000, according to the expert on
Hizbullah Waddah Sharara -- to help the regime fight both rebels and jihadists.
They send 2,000 fighters at a time in rotation, Sharara says. Experts say
Hizbullah has lost 1,000 to 2,000 fighters in the conflict, including senior
commanders.
Brexit, Hizbullah
Preoccupation with Syria to Further 'Delay' Presidential Vote
Naharnet/June 26/16/The latest developments in Syria and Europe are expected to
prolong Lebanon's long-running presidential vacuum, media reports said on
Sunday. “Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's speech (on
Friday) has indicated that the presidential crisis will witness further
deadlock,” An Nahar newspaper quoted informed sources as saying. “Nasrallah's
stances were almost fully focused on the severe repercussions of Aleppo's
battle, which the party is fighting in full force, although he devoted a
significant portion of his speech to the crisis with the banking sector and the
confrontation with Bahrain,” the sources said, highlighting the absence of the
presidential issue from Nasrallah's address. The sources also noted that
Nasrallah's remarks pour cold water on the optimism that has recently emerged
among Free Patriotic Movement officials regarding a reported international drive
to support the presidential bid of FPM founder MP Michel Aoun. “It has been
fully proven that the issue has not been put on the front burner and that it
will not be part of Iran's bargains, neither with France nor with any other
foreign side, seeing as the Iranian priorities were reflected in Sayyed
Nasrallah's candid and clear announcement that Hizbullah's funds and arms come
from Iran,” the sources added. Well-informed sources in Beirut meanwhile told
Kuwait's al-Rai newspaper that it has become “unrealistic” to expect an imminent
breakthrough in Lebanon's political crisis in light of “the shock of the British
referendum that has pushed the West to change its priorities.”Britain voted to
pull out of the European Union on Thursday, in a seismic blow to the bloc that
triggered the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron and sent world
financial markets into freefall. The move has been dubbed “Brexit” – a
portmanteau of "British" and "exit". The sources also told al-Rai that the
Hizbullah-led March 8 camp, especially through Speaker Nabih Berri's remarks,
appears to be pushing for a so-called “package deal” that involves agreements on
the presidency, the government and the electoral law. “They want to achieve
gains at the expense of the Lebanese formula and its current balances and at the
expense of the Taef Accord,” the sources charged. Meanwhile, high-ranking March
14 sources told the Kuwaiti al-Seyassah newspaper that Nasrallah's stances
“highlight his decision to keep the entire Lebanese situation unsettled until
the outcome of the expected battle in Aleppo becomes clear.”“The ongoing events
in Syria and Iraq are expected to push Hizbullah to further intransigence on the
domestic issues,” the sources added. Lebanon has been without a president since
the term of Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014 and Hizbullah, the FPM and some of
their allies have been boycotting the parliament's electoral sessions, stripping
them of the needed quorum. Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri
launched an initiative in late 2015 to nominate Marada Movement chief MP
Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency but his proposal was met with reservations
from the country's main Christian parties as well as Hizbullah. Hariri's move
was followed by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea's endorsement of his
long-time Christian foe Aoun for the presidency after a rapprochement deal was
reached between their two parties.
Jumblat Hits Out at Hariri
over ex-PM's Iqlim al-Kharroub Speech
Naharnet/June 26/16/Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat on Sunday
accused Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri of attempting to “exclude
and eliminate” the PSP from the Chouf region of Iqlim al-Kharroub in light of
the former premier's latest speech at an iftar banquet in the area. “Some should
not have excluded all of the PSP's historic achievements in Iqlim al-Kharroub,
seeing as acknowledging others enhances partnership,” said Jumblat in remarks to
his party's al-Anbaa newspaper. “Developmental projects in Iqlim al-Kharroub
have always been and will always be the subject of close and vigorous followup
by us,” Jumblat added. “We will not play down the achievements of others but we
will not disregard our own achievements,” he stressed.
“It's about time we stopped this incessant whirlpool of exclusion and
elimination attempts,” the PSP leader went on to say.
Bassil Says FPM to Seek Ban on Syrian Refugee Encampments, Shops
Naharnet/June 26/16/Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil announced Sunday
that the FPM will seek to bar Syrian refugees from setting up encampments and
opening shops in towns that witnessed FPM victories in the latest municipal
elections. “The presence of Syrian gatherings and encampments will be prohibited
in our towns,” said Bassil at an FPM municipal conference. “FPM-controlled
municipalities will bar Syrian refugees from opening shops,” he added. More than
1,000 unofficial refugee encampments are scattered across Lebanon, mostly in the
Bekaa and the North.Several FPM and Kataeb Party ministers have warned that the
huge number of refugees in Lebanon has started to pose major security, economic
and demographic risks. They have also warned of alleged international efforts to
naturalize or permanently settle the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Five years into
the Syria conflict, Lebanon hosts more than one million refugees from the
war-torn country, according to the United Nations. At least two thirds of them
live in extreme poverty, the U.N. says.
Health Ministry Shuts Dental
Clinic Operated by Syrian Doctor
Naharnet/June 26/16/The Health Ministry ordered on Saturday the closure of a
dental clinic in the northern town of Ghazir that is run by a Syrian doctor, the
National News Agency reported on Saturday. The Health Ministry inspectors found
out that the clinic, in the Blat neighborhood, is situated inside a residential
apartment where the practitioner lives with her family. The clinic is equipped
with dental tools, added NNA.
Spanish Peacekeeper Commits Suicide
at Ibl al-Saqi UNIFIL Base
Naharnet/June 26/16/A Spanish peacekeeper was on Sunday found dead with a
gunshot wound at a base for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
in the southern town of Ibl al-Saqi, Lebanon's National News Agency reported.
“The body was found by the soldier's comrades in the morning and investigations
have revealed that he committed suicide,” NNA said. “Preparations for
transferring the body to Spain have started,” it added. UNIFIL has more than
10,000 military personnel from 40 countries and around 1,000 civilian national
and international staff. The force was created in 1978 to help Lebanon restore
government control over southern Lebanon after the Israeli invasion, and it was
beefed up in 2006 after the devastating war between Israel and Hizbullah.
In first, Hezbollah confirms all
financial support comes from Iran
By Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Special to Al
Arabiya English Saturday, 25 June 2016
In a speech broadcast on Friday, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese
militant group Hezbollah scoffed at the recent US sanctions stating that these
sanctions will not impact his group whatsoever due to the fact that Hezbollah
receives full financial and arms support from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
He pointed out that “We do not have any business projects or investments via
banks…” Nasrallah added that “We are open about the fact that Hezbollah’s
budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and
rockets, come from the Islamic Republic of Iran,” and he emphasized that his
group “will not be affected” by any fresh sanctions. Speaking in a speech to
mark 40 days after the death of a high level Hezbollah commander Mustafah
Bedreddine in the Syrian capital Damascus, Nasrallah stated that: “As long as
Iran has money, we have money… Just as we receive the rockets that we use to
threaten Israel, we are receiving our money. No law will prevent us from
receiving it…”
First public confirmation
It has been long known to political observers that the Islamic Republic played a
key role in giving birth to the Lebanese Shiite militant group in 1982. For over
three decades, Iran’s financial, military, intelligence, logistical, and
advisory assistances to Hezbollah have been well known. The Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite force, the Quds force,
transformed Hezbollah to be one of Iran’s most important and powerful regional
and international proxies. Nevertheless, what highlights the significance of
Nasrallah’s speech is the fact that this is the first time in which he is
announcing and publicly confirming that his group is receiving full monetary and
arms support from the Iranian government. The United States has long listed
Hezbollah as a global terrorist group (since 1995) and accused it in several
attacks such as the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, that killed 241 US marines,
the April 1983 US embassy bombing, and the 1984 US embassy annex bombing. On
Dec. 18, 2015, the US president signed the Hezbollah International Financing
Prevention Act. The US Congress voted to impose fresh sanctions on Hezbollah by
targeting those banks that are “knowingly facilitating a significant transaction
or transactions for" Hezbollah and those financial institutions that "knowingly
facilitating a significant transaction or transactions of a person identified on
the List of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked persons." Nasrallah
pointed out in his recent speech: “We totally reject this [United States] law
until the Day of Judgment ... Even if the law is applied, we as a party and an
organizational and jihadist movement, will not be hurt or affected,” He added:
"We have no money in Lebanese banks, neither in the past nor now … We don't
transfer our money through the Lebanese banking system."
How this plays out in Washington
On the other hand, since Hezbollah is receiving full funding and arms support
from Iran, according to Nasrallah, the US is now seemingly playing a critical
role in assisting and facilitating the ways through which Hezbollah receives
this significant aid from the Iranian government.
The Obama administration and Hassan Rowhani’s government were two key players in
getting the nuclear agreement signed. When the nuclear terms started being
implemented, the Obama administration began immediately transferring billions of
dollars to Iran's Central Bank. One of the payments included 1.7 billion dollars
transferred, in January 2015. Two of the major primary beneficiaries of these
sanctions reliefs and flow of money are Hezbollah and the IRGC. Iran also
immediately increased its military budget by $1.5 billion from $15.6 billion to
$17.1 billion. Iran also began witnessing the flow of money due to the lifting
of international sanctions. Nasrallah’s speech also indicates that the US money
transfer to Iran’s bank and the sanctions reliefs appear to have empowered and
emboldened both the Iranian government and the Hezbollah leader. Previously,
when sanctions were imposed on Iran, Tehran had to reduce Hezbollah and its TV’s
(Al-Manar channel) funding from the approximately $200 million a year. However,
thanks to Washington, the money that Iran is receiving from the US or the market
is again going on its way to Hezbollah, the major benefactor. President Obama
had given hope to world powers that engaging with Iran and the nuclear deal with
Tehran would more likely force the Iranian government to moderate its behavior.
Obama pointed out in an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep that as a result of
the nuclear agreement Iran would start “different decisions that are less
offensive to its neighbors; that it tones down the rhetoric in terms of its
virulent opposition...”Hezbollah’s confirmation of receiving money and arms from
Iran is intriguing. Almost all signs indicate that the continuation of sanctions
relief, and US transfer of billions of dollars to Iran militarily and
financially assisting and ending up in the hands of Iran’s primary proxy,
Hezbollah as well as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Quds force.
Lebanon and Jordan may
collapse under a new wave of refugees
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
While Europe is tearing itself apart politically over a refugee crisis that they
could easily handle if they agreed to work together, the countries which have
done the actual heavy lifting in helping with the situation are genuinely
suffering. Turkey has been becoming more and more unstable over the past year.
Much of that to do with a renewed Kurdish insurgency prompted by Ankara’s
approach to Syria, but having to deal with upwards of 2.7 million refugees is
certainly putting the resources of the Turkish state under strain. And much more
worryingly, Jordan and Lebanon are creaking at the seams and may collapse under
the weight of refugees. Lebanon in particular has taken in between 1 and 1.5
million, in a country of less than 5 million – upwards of one fifth of the
people in that country are now Syrian refugees, a larger proportion than
anywhere else. And in a country with its own very troubled history of sectarian
infighting, the pressure is starting to take its toll. So much so, that they no
longer let Syrians in the country unless they can prove that they will move onto
somewhere else next. As we speak, the Syrian so-called “ceasefire” is melting
away, and renewed violence may yet see another surge in refugee numbers. Even as
in recent weeks more and more Syrian refugees have started contemplating heading
back home in the war zone, as the situation in the refugee camps have
deteriorated to where they are barely survivable.
Syria’s neighbors
But all this is hardly making the news in the West. And it should. Amid the
media kerfuffle and the rise of xenophobic nationalism in the EU, what is being
missed is that Europe is having to deal with a negligible burden compared with
Syria’s neighbors, and that if the situation carries on like this, we’ll not
only have to cope with Syrian and Iraqi refugees, but before long, Lebanese too.
Amid the media kerfuffle and the rise of xenophobic nationalism in the EU, what
is being missed is that Europe is having to deal with a negligible burden
compared with Syria’s neighbors. Perhaps Jordanian and Kurdish on top, not long
after. The countries of Eastern Europe have acted shamefully in this regard, and
are in effect shoving their heads in the sand over what is to come. Britain and
Denmark too. The initial response of Germany and Sweden, unlike it has been
described in Western media, has been no more than a proportional response in the
right direction, given the magnitude of the problem.
It was not over-the-top generous. It was what was required by the humanitarian
situation – and also by the demographic problems that those countries have. But
even there, reactionary forces have since blocked further action. Strangely
enough, for all there is to loathe about Turkish President Erdogan, in this
situation he has done more than anyone for the refugees. More, even, than Angela
Merkel. The Turks have invested billions of dollars in building facilities for
the refugees – facilities I have visited myself in 2013, when I got a private
tour by Governor Dalmaz, the PR special representative for Syrian refugees, to
see some of them. The cauldron of violence in Syria and Iraq is still boiling
over. And it will continue to spill over waves of refugees for some time to
come. Before long, if nothing is done, the countries who have borne most of the
humanitarian burden may soon be destabilized themselves, aggravating the refugee
crisis beyond our worst nightmares. How much longer will we contend to navelgaze
about pitiful numbers in our economies which can easily absorb these people,
while we stand idly by and allow the root causes of this crisis to get worse and
worse?
Because as far as genuine solutions are concerned, we have nothing. No
substantial plan to stem the conflict in Syria and Iraq. No plan to help Turkey,
Lebanon and Jordan to cope with the financial stresses of the effort they are
putting in. No plan to take some of the burden off them by taking in more
refugees than those who can make it to our shores by boat. Nothing. And if we
choose to be complacent about the consequences because Lebanon and Jordan are
countries far away, keep in mind which country is next in line on the brink of
collapse, immediately after them: Greece.
AlRahi from Waterville:
Rising of religious extremism and growing fundamentalist movements are causing
the migration of Christians and others from the East
Sun 26 Jun 2016/NNA - Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bshara Butros al-Rahi
considered that "the growing fundamentalist movements and the increasing
religious extremism are leading to the migration of Christians and others from
this part of the world." Al-Rahi's words came following a Mass service he headed
on Sunday at "Saint Joseph Parish" in Waterville in the State of Maine, his
third stop-over during his United States' visit. Al-Rahi met with members of the
Parish, with whom he raised various issues of Lebanese concern. He also touched
on the general prevailing conditions in the Middle East, especially the ongoing
crises, namely the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Saudi-Iranian dispute and
the rising religious extremism in the region. "The solution lies in the need to
end the wars and ensure the return of refugees to their homelands, restoring
their rights to live in dignity, security and stability; otherwise they will be
exploited through their social and humanitarian suffering to the benefit of
terrorist and fundamentalist movements," al-Rahi underscored.
EU Delegation Head marks
International Day in Support of Victims of Torture
Sun 26 Jun 2016/NNA - On the occasion of the International Day in Support of
Victims of Torture, the Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Lebanon,
Ambassador Christina Lassen, made the following comments:
"In her statement on the occasion of the International Day in Support of Victims
of Torture, High RepresentativeFederica Mogherini reaffirmed the European
Union'sstrong commitment to the eradication of all forms of torture and the full
rehabilitation of torture victims. Torture is inhumane and unequivocally
prohibited under international law. We welcome the steps taken by Lebanon to
translate its international commitments into practice. Lebanon has ratified the
UN Convention against Torture (UNCAT) and its Optional Protocol. It has also
taken some decisive steps towards the implementation of its relevant
commitments. We welcome in particular the establishment of a Department of Human
Rights and a Committee against Torture within the Internal Security Forces, (ISF)
as well as the adoption of a Code of Conduct and a Memorandum that describes the
role of ISF units in the application of the UNCAT. We hope for similar steps to
be followed by the Lebanese Armed Forces and the General Security. We also
recognise the will of Lebanese authorities to introduce a comprehensive
definition of torture in the Penal Code in accordance with the UN Convention,
and to establish a National Preventive Mechanism in line with the Optional
Protocol. In Lebanon, the prevention of torture and ill-treatment has been on
the European Union's agenda for a long time. The EU is currently implementing
two projects aiming to rehabilitate victims of torture, prevent torture,
increase accountability and fight impunity. Under these two projects, the EU
seeks to strengthen the capacity to apply international mechanisms and standards
related to torture cases as well as to improve prison conditions and build the
professional capacity of law enforcement. On this occasion, it is also important
to underline our good cooperation with Lebanese civil society organisations that
play an indispensable role in combatting torture and raising awareness,
including in sometimes very difficult situations. On this day, we shall remember
all those around the world who have been exposed or continue to be exposed to
torture. Only global and joint efforts will raise awareness of the damage that
torture does to individuals and society as a whole."
Harb honors his electoral
machine: I hope Interior Minister would take measures to terminate North
Governor, Our opponents ought to be honest in confrontation
Sun 26 Jun 2016/NNA - Tele-Communications Minister Butros Harb held a luncheon
banquet on Sunday at his residence in Tannourine in honor of members of his
electoral machine who supervised the municipal elections campaign. In a word on
the occasion, Harb praised the efforts of the young men and women who
contributed to the electoral campaign's success, adding that the "municipal
elections posed a very important democratic juncture in preserving the identity
and dignity of Tannourine." "Our opponents ought to be honest in their
confrontation, resorting to legal and democratic means instead to attempting to
exert pressure in veering matters to their benefit," Harb added. "The people's
will should be respected," he went on, criticizing herein the North Governor's
biased position towards a certain group whilst his duty entails his being "at an
equal distance from all citizens, and at the service of all people," Harb noted.
In this context, Harb called on the Interior Minister to adopt the necessary
measures in terminating the current North Governor's service.
Israeli drone circles over
Southern regions
Sun 26 Jun 2016/NNA - An Israeli reconnaissance aircraft violated the Lebanese
airspace over the town of Alma el-Shaeb at 6:30 a.m., circled over various
Southern regions and then left at 1:00 p.m. from above the town Rmeish, an Army
communiqué indicated on Sunday evening.
Lebanese Army arrests 24
Syrians for illegal entry into Lebanon
Sun 26 Jun 2016/NNA - "Army units in Zahle and southern suburb of Beirut (Dahye)
arrested 24 people of Syrian nationality on charges of illegal entry into
Lebanese territories, seizing two vehicles and two motorbikes without legal
papers which were in their possession," Army Orientation Directorate communiqué
indicated on Sunday. The arrestees were handed over to the concerned authorities
for further action.
UNIFIL announces death of
Spanish soldier
Sun 26 Jun 2016/NNA - UNIFIL Spanish Contingent soldier was found dead at the
"Miguel de Cervantes" Base in the area of Ibl al-Saqi in the South, NNA
correspondent reported on Sunday. In this context, UNIFIL Media Office announced
the death of the Spanish soldier, indicating that investigations are underway to
unveil the circumstances of the incident.
Bassil: We want a president with a preponderant majority
Sun 26 Jun 2016/NNA - "We want a president with a popular preponderant majority,
Foreign Affairs Minister, Gibran Bassil, told the founding municipal action
congress at Platea today. "Our resolve strictly lies in our domestic decision
making rather than outside," the minister stressed. A new president to our
liking must be equidistant from various political components; our solitary
option as of 2016 had been consolidated in certain electoral departments with a
preponderant majority of mukhtars who swore allegiance to our national liberal
tendency. Listing the achievements in the heartland of Keserwan, Metn, Beirut
and Jbeil, Bassil added that the tendency scored major victories with minor
retreats in Zgharta. One of the victories achieved has been in the area of
garbage disposal when the cabinet decided to vest them with local municipal
councils. Bassil also prided his tendency with financing and sponsoring a number
of municipal councils who undertook garbage disposal operations. He disclosed up
to one billion Liras being earmarked for such projects during the fiscal year
2016 alone thanks to our efforts a decree has been issued to this effect in
2015. Bassil also disclosed that municipalities under the jurisdiction of his
tendency have effectively bared Syrian refugees from working or taking over
Lebanese working quotas as he said. He went on to say further scrutiny is needed
to control Syrian refugee movements stressing decentralization could serve as
the best means for achieving good results. Also criticizing the council for
development and reconstruction for what he termed as council's endemic
malfunction, Bassil underscored most of the development took place in Beirut and
Tripoli while the rest of Lebanon remained pretty much deprived of them.
The minister concluded on a note stressing need for a comprehensive
decentralized system with municipal heads acting as local mini presidents.
Hariri from Akkar: We want to
prepare our youth for life and creativity not for death and war
Sun 26 June/2016/NNA - Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri held an "Iftar" on
Sunday evening in the town of Bebnin, in honor of families and dignitaries from
Akkar region, during which he delivered the following speech:
"Dear friends of Akkar, May God's mercy and blessings be upon you.
From where can I start to talk about Akkar? From the fact that it is the
reservoir of the State, the army, the security forces and all the legitimate
security forces? From the fact that Akkar is the reservoir of coexistence and
national unity among all the Lebanese? From the fact that Akkar is the reservoir
of Arabism and the defense of Lebanon's national identity? From the fact that
Akkar is the reservoir of magnanimity and generosity in receiving our brothers
who were displaced from the hell of Bashar al-Assad and his criminal allies in
Syria? And here allow me to pay tribute to the sons of Wadi Khaled and Akroum
who opened the houses to the displaced, from the first moment, before the
international community and humanitarian organizations took any move.
I salute all the inhabitants of Akkar who are making sacrifices, in the absence
of employment opportunities for young men and women in all of Lebanon, due to
the political paralysis after two years of presidential vacuum. Some people in
this country decided to tie our fate to the fate of Bashar al-Assad. They
imposed the presidential, institutional and socio-economic vacuum on the
country, until they see what will happen in Syria. At the same time, they tell
us that the Future Movement has been betting for five years on the fall of
Bashar al-Assad and he has not fallen! And that the Future Movement is betting
on a new regime in Syria, and plans to use it to intimidate its partners in the
state. To those I want to say: Yes, Bashar al-Assad will fall ... inevitably,
tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, or in a year.
How can someone who killed half a million from his people continue to rule his
country? In fact, even today, he is not ruling his country. At best, he is the
general supervisor of the civil war and the destruction of Syria. History has a
logic. And justice has a logic. Let anyone give us one example in history of a
ruler who followed this path and remained! The new Syria will rise from the
rubble, and we hope that the Syrian people will reach freedom and free himself
from the two arms of the plier: the hand of the oppressive killer regime and its
allies, and the hand of terrorism that kills misleadingly under the name of
religion! But to say that we are betting on the change in Syria to intimidate
others in the country is false and misleading: the Future Movement does not hand
the Lebanese national decision to any external will, whether Arab and
non-Arab...unlike Hezbollah...!
The important thing is to have a normal regime in Syria and a normal leader, and
a regime that wants to cooperate with Lebanon not dominate it. Those accusing us
of having bet on the fall of the Syrian regime during the first year of the
uprising are the ones who bet to end it in the first few months, and they have
been waiting to do that for the past five years, bringing thousands of armed men
from Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and other countries. At least we are
working to prevent the spread of fire from Syria to Lebanon, not throwing the
Lebanese youth and Lebanon's interests in the Syrian fire just because Iran
decided to fight in defence of Bashar till the last Lebanese!
Two years ago I launched an initiative to disengage Lebanon from the Syrian war,
called for the withdrawal from any kind of military participation in the war, to
commission the army and the security forces to protect the borders and prevent
infiltration, and called for the issuance of a national document to fight
terrorism and extremism.
They responded to the initiative by insisting on participating in the war and
expanding the participation to other countries until they reached Yemen!
Fighting in Yemen is now more honourable than fighting the Israeli enemy! May
God help Palestine!
They fell into a spiral from which they can't get out without an Iranian
decision! And this decision is like the devil dreaming of heaven! If Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah decides to withdraw from Syria and Iran does not want this, he
will not withdraw!
We want to prepare our youth for life, work, production, creativity and not for
death, war and destruction. We want all of Lebanon and Akkar to be a region that
bustles with development, projects, life and hope. This is why we prepared a
comprehensive development scheme for Akkar that includes: Water, electricity,
roads, sewage, health and education.
You all know the essential role of the Future Movement to allocate 100 million
dollars for the development in Akkar, 33 million of which have already been
paid. I am honoured to announce today that the second payment of $33 million
will be transferred from the Ministry of Finance.
The 100 million dollars will include essential projects, including 35 million
for the Lebanese University branch in Akkar, 15 million for rehabilitating
roads, 20 million for vocational schools, 2 and a half millions to equip Wadi
Khaled hospital and the rest for infrastructure projects.
In addition to these projects, we are following up the vital project for Akkar
and the North, i.e. Martyr Premier Rafic Hariri's highway. The expropriation
decree was issued a year and a half ago. Now, the committee is working to start
the first phase from Mhamamra to Kweikhat.
Also, we didn't forget the second vital project, the Kleiat Airport. The
preliminary studies are underway for the airport to be used as soon as the
Syrian war ends, then the airport will play a big role just like Akkar and the
North as a whole in rebuilding Syria and Iraq.
Meanwhile, Beit Mallat -al-Ouyoun power station increased power supply of Akkar
by 50% and a plan is being to enlarge Halba electricity plan with transmission
lines. And since water and its projects are essential for your region, a tender
will be presented in the next 45 days for the Akkar water project after the
amendments proposed by MP Mouein Merhabi. Finally, although we should wait for
the official letter, you should know that the preliminary approval arrived from
the Italian donors to outsource the refining station in Meshmesh.
We owe Akkar a lot, and whatever we do will not be enough. Ramadan Karim."
Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on June 26-27/16
Vatican hits back at Turkey for
calling pope 'crusader'
Reuters/June 26/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/06/26/vatican-hits-back-at-turkey-for-calling-pope-crusader/
YEREVAN - The Vatican hit back on Sunday at Turkey's depiction of Pope Francis
as having a "Crusader mentality" after he used the word genocide to describe the
massacre of 1.5 million Armenians a century ago. "The pope is on no crusade. He
is not trying to organize wars or build walls but he wants to build bridges,"
spokesman Father Federico Lombardi told reporters. "He has not said a word
against the Turkish people." Addressing Armenia's president, the government and
diplomats on Friday, Francis departed from his prepared text to use the word
"genocide," a description that infuriated Turkey when he first used it a year
ago. Turkey's deputy prime minister Nurettin Canikli said on Saturday it was
"very unfortunate" the pope had used the word, adding: "It is unfortunately
possible to see all the reflections and traces of Crusader mentality in the
actions of the papacy and the pope." Francis, who returns to Rome on Sunday
after visiting a monastery near the border with Turkey, first used the word last
year in a ceremony at the Vatican. An infuriated Turkey responded by recalling
its ambassador to the Vatican and keeping him away for 10 months. Turkey accepts
that many Christian Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire were killed in
clashes with Ottoman forces during World War One, but contests the figures and
denies that the killings were systematically orchestrated and constitute a
genocide. It also says many Muslim Turks perished at that time.On Sunday
morning, at the last main event of his three-day trip to Armenia, Francis again
made reference to the massacre, paying homage to "the many victims of hatred who
suffered and gave their lives for the faith."Unusually for the pope, he was a
guest in a Christian liturgy where someone else called "His Holiness" presided.
The "divine liturgy" was presided over by Catholicos Karekin II, head of the
Armenian Apostolic Church, which split from Rome over a theological dispute in
the fifth century and is part of the Oriental Orthodox Churches. Francis sat to
one side as Karekin led an elaborate service filled with chanting in the
compound at Holy Etchmiadzin, the headquarters of the Armenian Church near
Yerevan. The pope, who delighted his hosts by referring several times to the
slaughters and visiting Yerevan's genocide memorial, has urged Armenia and
Turkey to seek reconciliation and to shun "the illusory power of vengeance."The
dispute about the massacres and differences over Yerevan's support of the ethnic
Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, have led to fraught
relations that include closed borders and a lack of diplomatic ties.
Russian, Regime Raids Kill 82
in IS-Held East Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 26/16/At least 82 people including 58
civilians were killed in Russian and regime air strikes on an Islamic State
group-held area of eastern Syria, a monitor said Sunday in a new toll. "Three
Russian and Syrian regime air raids on the region of al-Quriyah, southeast of
Deir Ezzor city, killed 58 civilians," the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said. It added that 24 other people were killed, without specifying whether they
were civilians or IS fighters. The Britain-based Observatory, which has a
network of sources in Syria, initially reported that 47 people including 31
civilians died in the raids around al-Quriyah.Russian warplanes have been
carrying out an air war in support of President Bashar Assad since September
2015. IS holds around 60 percent of Deir Ezzor city, the capital of the province
of the same name, which is next to the jihadist-held Raqa province.
More than 280,000 people have been killed since Syria's conflict erupted in
March 2011, after a widespread protest movement evolved into a complex,
multi-front war that has drawn in global powers.
Iraq declares end of Fallujah battle against ISIS
Reuters, Baghdad Sunday, 26 June 2016/Iraqi forces recaptured the last remaining
district held by ISIS militants in the city of Fallujah on Sunday and the
general commanding the operation declared the battle complete. Prime Minister
Haider al-Abadi claimed victory over ISIS in Fallujah more than a week ago but
fighting continued inside the city, including in the Golan district. "We
announce from this place in central Golan district that it has been cleaned by
the counter terrorism service and we convey the good news to the Iraqi people
that the battle of Fallujah is over," Lieutenant General Abdul Wahab al-Saidi
told state TV. At least 1,800 militants were killed in the operation to retake
Fallujah, he said.Earlier, Iraqi forces said they are screening 20,000 people
leaving the Fallujah area to stop militants of the ISIS escaping among civilians
displaced by fighting, the army said on Saturday. Tens of thousands of people
have fled as government forces fight to oust ISIS from Fallujah, a city 50
kilometers west of Baghdad. Some of those screened have accused security forces
of beating and torturing them. Of those detained, 2,185 were suspects based on
testimonies or other information, while 11,605 were released and about 7,000
were still being checked, said a spokesman for Iraq's Joint Operations Command.
When fleeing civilians reached government forces, teenage boys and men were
screened separately, with some being released after a few hours while others
underwent more thorough interrogation. Relatives mobbed Iraqi officials at a
camp for displaced last week to ask about the fate of hundreds of missing males.
One man said he was held for four days without anything to drink or eat by the
Popular Mobilization forces, an umbrella organization for volunteer fighters
dominated by Iran-backed Shiite militias. Another said detainees were beaten,
and others had similar accounts of torture. Human Rights Watch this month called
for Iraq to "unravel the web of culpability underlying the government forces'
repeated outrages against civilians". HRW said it had received credible
allegations that federal police and pro-government forces executed at least 17
people fleeing the fighting in Sijr, northeast of Fallujah. The watchdog also
listed reports of civilians being stabbed to death and others dying after being
dragged behind cars in the Saqlawiya area, northwest of Fallujah. Prime Minister
Haider al-Abadi's office previously said that he had issued "strict orders" for
prosecutions in the event of any abuses. ISIS overran large areas north and west
of Baghdad in June 2014, but Iraqi forces have since regained significant ground
from the militants, who now hold only one major city in the country. (With AFP)
EU vote triggers open
conflict in Britain's main parties
AFP, London Sunday, 26 June 2016/Britain’s two main parties were in open
conflict on Sunday after a vote to leave the EU triggered an attempted “coup” in
the main opposition Labour Party and a bitter leadership contest in the ruling
Conservatives. Both parties are reeling from the referendum result, when British
voters rejected the arguments of their leaders and decided to leave the European
Union in a vote which underscored the deep divisions in the country. Prime
Minister David Cameron has said he will resign - prompting a fierce battle to
replace him - and several Labour lawmakers quit the party’s top policy team to
try to force their leader, Jeremy Corbyn, from office. It fell to Scottish First
Minister Nicola Sturgeon to describe events as “a vacuum of leadership”. “I look
on at what’s happening in Westminster just now with a sense of utter despair on
behalf of people across England and other parts of the UK as that vacuum of
leadership both in the Tories and Labour develops,” Sturgeon told the BBC. She
also suggested the Brexit vote could see the departure of Scotland, which voted
to remain in the EU, in a second independence referendum which could lead to the
collapse of United Kingdom. Cameron has said he will stay on in his post until
October to try to help reassure the public and markets, but his decision to
announce his resignation immediately after the vote has unsettled those who
campaigned to leave the European Union. They say they will wait until a new
Eurosceptic leader is in place before triggering the process to leave the bloc
as leading Conservatives jockey to take the mantle. Former London mayor Boris
Johnson, whose support for the leave camp galvanized the “Out” campaign, is
favorite to replace Cameron but media have reported that there is a group of
pro-Cameron lawmakers looking for “anyone but Boris”. Foreign Minister Philip
Hammond ruled himself out of the contest, but said: “It’s got to be somebody who
can unite the Conservative Party... but it’s also got to be somebody with a
credible strategy for dealing... with the challenge of negotiating an exit from
the European Union without destroying our prosperity in the process.”
Labour disarray
The deep divisions in Labour were also blown into the open when Corbyn sacked
his foreign affairs policy chief, Hilary Benn, overnight because, as his
spokesman said on Sunday, “he has lost confidence in him”. A growing number of
Labour lawmakers have called on Corbyn to resign in the aftermath of the vote to
leave the EU. Some party members say he failed to assuage concern among the
party’s traditional supporters - others that he should have campaigned more in
favor of EU membership. Two Labour politicians have submitted a motion of no
confidence in Corbyn, which will be debated later this week. Benn challenged
Corbyn over his leadership, saying many lawmakers in the party had “no
confidence in our ability to win the next election, which may come much sooner
than expected”. Several members of Corbyn’s ‘shadow cabinet’ - top policy chiefs
who hold portfolios mirroring those of the government - resigned in protest at
his leadership and others were set to follow. But Corbyn, who was elected last
year on a wave of enthusiasm for change among thousands of new, young Labour
members, was “not going anywhere”, said his finance spokesman, John McDonnell.
“I know how disappointed people are about the loss of the European referendum,
but now is the time we hold together.”
Two million sign UK petition
for second Brexit vote
Reuters, AFP Sunday, 26 June 2016/Britain's decision to leave the European Union
could be the beginning of the disintegration of the bloc of countries or the
United Kingdom, said economist Nouriel Roubini on Sunday. But people should not
expect a recession or financial crisis in the wake of the "Brexit" vote, said
Roubini, speaking at the World Economic Forum in China's northern city of
Tianjin. More than two million people have signed a petition calling for a
second referendum, after the shock vote to pull Britain out of the EU, an
official website showed Saturday. The website of the parliamentary petition at
one point crashed due to the surge of people adding their names to the call for
another nationwide poll following Thursday's historic vote. "We the undersigned
call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is
less than 60 percent based (on) a turnout less than 75 percent there should be
another referendum," says the petition. The "Leave" camp won the support of 51.9
percent of voters, against 48.1 percent in favour of remaining in the European
Union. Turnout for Thursday's referendum was 72.2 percent. Signatories to the
petition appeared to be mostly in Edinburgh and London, both of which voted
heavily in favour of "Remain".There is no obligation in British legislation for
referendums to have a minimum share of the vote or a minimum turnout, as in some
other countries. But EU rules say nothing about a member state that has already
begun negotiations to leave the bloc changing its mind and reversing that
decision under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. University of Strathclyde
professor John Curtice outlined two hypothetical scenarios in which a second
referendum could take place. "If Boris Johnson is running the government and it
is taking a long time to be implemented, two years down the line we could have
another poll showing people actually want to reverse the decision and remain
in," he said. "Then there could be a situation where the opposition party in a
general election have a mandate to hold a new referendum," he added. But he said
there would be no immediate effects from the current petition except for a
formal discussion in parliament, which is required for any petitions that have
over 100,000 signatures.
'You can't have neverendums'
The result of Thursday's vote revealed stark divisions between young and old,
north and south, cities and rural areas, and people with and without a
university degree. By 1745 GMT on Saturday some 2,054,000 people had signed the
petition on the official government and parliament website -- more than 20 times
the number required for a proposal to be discussed in parliament. On Friday, a
House of Commons spokeswoman said the website had been taken out of action
temporarily due to "exceptionally high volumes of simultaneous users on a single
petition, significantly higher than on any previous occasion". Parliament's
Petitions Committee, which considers whether such submissions should be raised
in the House, is to hold its next meeting on Tuesday. The idea of a second
referendum was raised during campaigning for Thursday's vote. UK Independence
Party leader Nigel Farage suggested last month that a close Remain win would
build up resentment and not be the end of the matter. "In a 52-48 referendum
this would be unfinished business by a long way," he told the Daily Mirror
newspaper. The Sunday Times newspaper backed the idea of a second referendum,
"once the first has forced Brussels to undertake a more serious negotiation".
"In a real crisis the EU has always stepped back from the brink," the
"Leave"-supporting broadsheet wrote last week. But "Leave" figurehead Johnson
downplayed the idea of a new vote. "I'm absolutely clear, a referendum is a
referendum. It is a once in a generation, once in a lifetime opportunity and the
result determines the outcome," he said. "If we vote to stay, we stay, and
that's it. If we vote to leave, we vote to leave, that's it. You can't have
neverendums, you have referendums," he added.
Kerry in Rome for tense
Netanyahu meeting
AFP, Washington Sunday, 26 June 2016/US Secretary of State John Kerry left
Washington on Saturday to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the
publication of an international report expected to criticize Israeli settlement
building. Kerry was flying to Rome to meet the Israeli leader on Sunday and
Monday. Some reports have suggested he will use the meeting to assess the
possibility of reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. But US officials
have been careful not to predict any breakthroughs and the meeting is likely to
touch on the imminent release of a report by the Quartet, which is seeking to
foster a "two-state" solution to the conflict. This diplomatic group -- the
United Nations, the European Union, the United States and Russia -- is concerned
that Palestinian violence and Israel's building on occupied land is pushing the
prospect of peace further away. This week, ahead of Kerry's trip, his spokesman
John Kirby said: "There are plenty of issues coming up that merit Israel and the
United States's discussion." Kirby said the Quartet's report "will include
recommendations that will help inform international discussions on the best way
to advance a two-state solution." The document will "largely" reflect the
Quartet's previous statement in September last year, he added. The September
report cited Israel's "ongoing settlement activity and the high rate of
demolition of Palestinian structures" as "dangerously imperiling the viability"
of a two-state deal. Washington, the traditional mediator in Middle East peace
efforts, has not taken the lead in recent months, concerned that the situation
is not promising and that another round of failed talks would only further
embitter both parties. But France has launched a diplomatic initiative to build
international pressure on both sides. The United States gave the French move a
cool reception, but Kerry attended its inaugural meeting in Paris and has called
on both sides to take "affirmative steps" to calm tempers and preserve the
possibility of peace. On the ground, however, the situation remains fraught and
sporadic violence since October has killed at least 210 Palestinians, 32
Israelis, two Americans, an Eritrean and a Sudanese. Most of the Palestinians
were carrying out knife, gun or car-ramming attacks, according to Israeli
authorities. On Thursday, in an address to the European Parliament, Palestinian
president Mahmud Abbas accused a group of Israeli rabbis of urging their
government to poison Palestinian water supplies. Netanyahu in turn furiously
accused his opponent of resurrecting the ancient "blood libel" against Jews, a
charge Abbas denies.
Israel and Turkey to hold
normalization talks
AFP, Jerusalem Sunday, 26 June 2016/Israeli and Turkish negotiators will meet on
Sunday in Rome aiming to reach an agreement on normalizing relations after the
two countries fell out six years ago, sources said. Previously, the discussions
had been expected to take place in Turkey. If an agreement is reached, it would
go before Israel's security cabinet for approval on Wednesday, according to
media reports and an Israeli official who requested anonymity. Analysts say it
is very likely that an agreement will be concluded on Sunday. Once tight
relations between Israel and key NATO member Turkey were significantly
downgraded after Israeli commandos staged a deadly pre-dawn raid on a six-ship
flotilla in May 2010 as it tried to run the blockade on Gaza. Two of Turkey's
key conditions for normalization -- an apology and compensation -- have largely
been met, leaving its third demand, that Israel lift its blockade on the
Hamas-run Gaza Strip, as the main obstacle. According to the Turkish daily
Hurriyet, the two sides have reached a compromise whereby Turkey would send aid
for Palestinians via the Israeli port of Ashdod rather than directly to Gaza. A
meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of
State John Kerry is also expected on Sunday in the Italian capital to discuss
the state of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.
Turkey: Pope’s genocide
declaration bears stamp of ‘crusades’ mentality’
AFP, Ankara Sunday, 26 June 2016/Turkey has condemned as “very unfortunate” Pope
Francis’s declaration that the mass killings of Armenians a century ago by
Ottoman forces amounted to a genocide, saying it bore traces of “the mentality
of the Crusades.”“It is not an objective statement that conforms with reality,”
Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Canlikli said late on Saturday, quoted by the
state-run news agency Anadolu. The pope on Friday denounced the World War I
killing of Armenians as a genocide, prompting Turkey’s anger. “Sadly this
tragedy, this genocide, was the first of the deplorable series of catastrophes
of the past century,” the pope said at the presidential palace in Yerevan.
Canikli said: “It is possible to see all the hallmarks or reflections of the
mentality of the Crusades in the Pope’s activities.”When Francis last used the
term in the Vatican in 2015, on the centenary of the killings, Ankara angrily
recalled its envoy from the Holy See for nearly a year. The pope on Saturday
visited the Armenian genocide memorial in Yerevan but sought to strike a
conciliatory tone during evening prayers. “May God bless your future and grant
that the people of Armenia and Turkey take up again the path of reconciliation,
and may peace also spring forth in Nagorny Karabakh.”Armenians have long sought
international recognition for the World War I killings as genocide. Turkey - the
Ottoman Empire’s successor state - argues that it was a collective tragedy in
which both Turks and Armenians died.
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources
published on
June 26-27/16
How far can
Israel and the Arab states go?
Bruce Maddy-Weitzman/Jerusalem Post/June 26/16
AFTER A lengthy hiatus, the wheels of Arab-Israeli diplomacy are again spinning.
On May 17, Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi publicly spoke of new
opportunities to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace and promised the Israeli
public that warmer relations with Egypt and other Arab states would be one of
the consequences of such a peace. Moreover, this would apparently begin to be
expressed in a reciprocal fashion: Israeli gestures toward the Palestinians
would be matched by Arab gestures toward Israel. Prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu was quick to praise Sisi’s intended involvement.
Following the appointment of Avigdor Liberman (who once suggested bombing the
Aswan Dam) to the post of defense minister, Netanyahu and Liberman hastened to
reassure a shocked Sisi (he had been expecting the more amenable Zionist Union
leader Isaac Herzog to join the government) that they remained committed to a
two-state solution. Moreover, they publicly affirmed that the 2002 Arab Peace
Initiative contained positive principles that, if appropriately updated, could
serve as a basis for negotiations.
The reasons for the new courtship are not hard to fathom. A confluence of
interests between Israel and conservative Arab regimes in opposition to
expanding Iranian influence in the region; the Islamic State and the Muslim
Brotherhood; plus mutual concern over the depth of the US’s continued commitment
to them, has drawn them closer together, particularly in the security and
intelligence realms.
Egyptian military operations against the Islamic State affiliate in Sinai have
been expedited by Israel’s waiving of the provisions in the Egyptian-Israeli
peace treaty that severely limited the size and types of Egyptian forces
permitted to operate there. Egypt’s severe crackdown on Hamas smuggling tunnels
neatly dovetailed with Israel’s interest. Recent reports speak of an improved
atmosphere in the economic and commercial spheres, as well. Israel also may have
agreed to Egypt hosting a regional peace conference, something that would assist
Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in deflecting growing international criticism,
including in the US Congress.
Does all this indicate movement and not just motion? For Israel, the value of
the API lies primarily in the explicit willingness of the Arab states to end the
conflict, live in peace and establish normal relations with it in the context of
a comprehensive peace. Such language is light years away from the infamous
“Three Nos” of the 1967 Khartoum Arab Summit – no peace, no negotiations and no
recognition of Israel.
As for the specifics of the comprehensive peace laid out by the API, how much
would Arab states be willing and able to deviate from them? The short answer
appears to be: not much.
The API’s main points include the long-standing collective Arab demands for an
Israeli withdrawal to the June 4, 1967, lines; the establishment of a
Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with Jerusalem as its capital; and a
solution to the Palestinian refugee problem based on UNGA Resolution 194, which,
in Arab eyes, confirms the sacrosanct Palestinian “right of return.” The
initiative also explicitly rejects all forms of “patriation” (tawtin) in Arab
host countries with “special circumstances” – namely, Lebanon and Jordan would
not be saddled with the burden of absorbing the masses of refugees currently
living there.
Some analysts point to the distinction between insisting on the principle of
right of return and being flexible on its implementation, as well as the fact
that the API states that the solution should be both “just” and “agreed upon,”
thus requiring Israel’s consent. But the gap between Israeli and Arab positions
on the subject is likely to remain yawning.
To be sure, the Palestinian issue has declined in importance for most Arab
states. However, it still retains symbolic value that cannot be easily dismissed
by Arab regimes. Their publics are still, by and large, hostile to the notion of
normalization with “the Zionist enemy.” Moreover, Arab states have repeatedly
been unwilling or unable to “deliver” the Palestinians in negotiations, or act
as substitutes for them. The current division between Hamas and the Palestinian
Authority makes such a task even more difficult.
What is perhaps possible is that the common interests that do exist between
Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia can result in incremental steps that will begin
to change the realities on the ground and create a positive dynamic.
Even that much will demand a hefty dose of leadership and wisdom from all sides.
The author is a professor in the Department of Middle Eastern and African
History, and Senior Research Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern
and African Studies, Tel Aviv University.
10 years after
Second Lebanon War, for a bereaved mother the pain is only worse
Ben Hartman/Jerusalem
Post/June 26/16
A family can live day-to-day on the edge of a black hole, always struggling to
keep from falling into the abyss of grief and loss. For Miki Goldwasser, the
last 10 years since her son was killed in a cross-border Hezbollah raid that led
to the Second Lebanon War have been a balancing act, finding a way to stay alive
by moving forward. “There’s a black hole in the middle of our lives and you live
your life surrounding it. We have no desire to bury our heads underneath a
blanket, we have two more children to take care of and we have to move forward,”
Goldwasser told The Jerusalem Post last week, just ahead of the 10th anniversary
of the war. On July 12, 2006, Ehud Goldwasser was a 31-year-old on his last day
of reserve duty on the Lebanon border when his patrol was attacked. Ehud was
killed along with 26-year-old reservist Eldad Regev, who was also on his last
day of reserve duty. Both of their bodies were seized by Hezbollah and spirited
into Lebanon. Three other IDF soldiers were killed in the raid, and five more
perished in a failed rescue attempt immediately after. The 34-day war is seen to
this day by many in Israel as a failure, one in which Hezbollah proved they
could fight the Israeli army to a stalemate and exact a devastating toll on the
Israeli home front.Miki Goldwasser, whose family paid a terrible price before
the war even began, begs to differ. “That war was a great victory and only now
after 10 years, people realize it. We needed to do this and what [then prime
minister Ehud] Olmert did then we should have done years before. We never had
deterrence and if we’d dealt with Gaza like we did Lebanon, my son would have
never been taken.”She blames a sort of Israeli complacency for her son’s death.
“Everyone always says it’ll be okay, why are you worried about the border? This
is what struck our family.
We never deal with things before or after, we just have committees of
inquiry.”Ehud “Udi” was the eldest of three sons. He is survived by Yair, 36,
and Gadi, 33. Gadi is a bachelor, but Yair is married with a one-year old girl,
and a four-year-old son, Bar, who Miki says constantly reminds her of Udi – who,
even at four years old was bright beyond his years.
Miki says she can’t help but look at Bar and wonder what could have been. During
efforts to return the bodies of Udi and Eldad, Miki was frequently in the news
along with Udi’s widow, Karnit, today a member of the Tel Aviv City Council.
Miki was a forceful presence then, and she doesn’t sound like she’s slowed down
much since. She minces no words about the leadership before and after the war:
“Tel Aviv residents... know more about cities in Europe than they do about
northern Israel.” She also commented on the “disturbing” political leadership in
the country, who she says she would not want her sons to go to war for. The
69-year-old is a “fulltime savta (grandmother) and still lives in Nahariya with
her husband, Shlomo, who works for the Transportation Ministry. They stay busy,
but at every moment of the day there’s a terrible loss hanging over their
family, a deep sorrow that only gets worse with time.“The pain gets harder with
time, naturally, and all of the bereaved families will say this. The longing
just gets worse and it’s something you can’t describe unless you’ve been through
it.”Miki has dreams where Udi is back with the family, talking, telling stories,
and no matter what, “he’s always with us, always in the house with us.”She said
they learned how to continue on with their lives, finding occasions for
happiness, despite the loss and the daydreams about what could have been for Udi,
a young husband and Technion graduate who showed great promise. “When Udi was
killed he was 31, that’s not a baby, not a child. He’d already done a lot in his
life, but he’s remembered as a captured soldier only – that was the title he
received. It’s a shame, the sky was the limit for Udi. He wouldn’t have been
just a captured soldier, he would have been more.”
Egypt: New Attacks on Christians
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/June 26/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/06/26/raymond-ibrahimgatestone-institute-egypt-new-attacks-on-christians/
After appearing, the police stood back and allowed the mob to continue
destroying the house and setting more Christian homes and vehicles on fire.
Last month in Egypt, a 70 year old Christian woman was stripped naked, beaten,
and paraded in the streets of her village by a mob of 300 Muslim men.
"How long will these acts continue with impunity -- will they never stop?" — Dr.
Mona Roman, host of the Arabic-language news show, Behind the Scenes.
In a chronically familiar scene, angry, rioting Muslims in Egypt burned down
around 80 Christian homes on June 17. In the words of one of the victims, Moses
Zarif,
"On Friday afternoon, after noon prayers, a large number of Muslims gathered in
the front of the new house of my cousin because a rumor had spread in the
village that it would be turned into a church. They were chanting slogans
against us: 'By no means will there be a church here' and 'Egypt will remain
Islamic!'"
According to the report, rioting Muslims beat the two cousins, attacked the
building, destroyed all construction materials, and threw rocks at any Christian
trying to intervene. Then they "turned their wrath on the Christian homes
adjacent to the building, hurled rocks, looted houses and set fire to any
Christian property in their wake."
When the local priest heard what was happening, he rushed to the scene -- only
to be attacked while in his car; the Muslims climbed on it, stomped on it, and
damaged it.
Currently the Christians of al-Bayda village, where the incident took place,
have no church. They have to walk four miles in Egypt's sweltering heat to
attend another church.
The Arabic-language news show, "Behind the Scenes," played short video clips of
the incident as it transpired, made by phone cameras.
On June 17, 2016, rioting Muslims in Egypt attacked Christians and their
property, and burned down Christian homes. (Image source: "Behind the Scenes"
video screenshot)
The Muslim mob, which appears to have consisted of hundreds of people
surrounding the building, included veiled women and children. There were shouts
of "Allahu Akbar!" ["Allah is Greater!"]; women in hijabs clapped and whistled
and ululated. At one point, almost in unison, the mob can clearly be heard
chanting, "We'll burn the church, we'll burn the church."
Egyptian TV reported the one-sided attacks from the Muslim majority on the
Christian minority as "clashes." After arriving, the police stood back and
allowed the mob to continue destroying the house and setting more Christian
homes and vehicles on fire. The Muslims then performed their afternoon prayers
outside those Christians' homes they had not destroyed -- with loudspeakers
pointed at their doors.
"No one did anything and the police took no pre-emptive or security measures in
anticipation of the attacks," said Anba Makarios, a representative of the
normally diplomatic Coptic Christian church of the incident. Instead, a report
notes that,
"In the end, police arrested six Muslim men, all of whom were released that
evening, and six Christian men, who were released on the following day. The
police station in Amirya charged the six men with erecting a building without
permit and holding prayers without permission."
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of this latest attack on Egypt's Christian
minority is that every aspect of it has been repeated over and over in countless
other incidents.
Violent riots and attacks on Christian homes and property, at the mere mention
that a Christian church might be built or just renovated, are commonplace in
Egypt (see here for several recent examples).
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi, Egypt's president, agreed to build a
memorial church in the village of Al-Our, which was home to 13 of the 21
Christians beheaded in February 2015 by the Islamic State in Libya. The families
of the victims still live there. Muslim mobs from the village rose in violence
in response, on April 3, 2015. There they also shouted that they would never
allow a church to be built, and that "Egypt is Islamic!" Molotov cocktails and
stones were thrown at another Coptic church, cars were set ablaze -- including
one belonging to a relative of one of the those Christians decapitated by the
Islamic State -- and several people were injured.
Even tents used by churchless Christians for worship are not spared.
Collective punishment -- punishing all Christians for the real or perceived
offense of one Christian -- is common (as documented here). It is the reason
that 80 Christian homes are torched on the rumor that one Christian might be
turning his home into a church. Last month in Egypt, a 70-year-old Christian
woman was stripped naked, beaten, and paraded in the streets of her village by a
mob of 300 Muslim men.
The woman's son was rumored to be romantically involved with a Muslim woman -- a
relationship strictly banned by Islam.
All these attacks take place on took place on a Friday: the one day of the week
when Muslims meet in mosques to pray and hear sermons -- possibly whipping them
up against all things "infidel," Christians chief among them.
The attack on the church had the bonus of occurring during Ramadan as well, when
pious Muslims possibly become even more radical and intolerant of uppity
Christians who dare to build churches.
During the coverage of this attack, Dr. Mona Roman, the host of "Behind the
Scenes," said:
"Throughout Egypt, we are accustomed to seeing Muslims laying out their carpets
and praying wherever they want, and no one bothers them. Why must Christians be
so hounded for trying to worship, prevented from building churches or even
meeting in homes? Where is this equality we often hear about?"
She concluded by asking what must be on the mind of every Christian in Egypt:
"We all know the authority of Egypt's government, that whenever it intends on
doing something, it does it. How long will these acts continue with impunity --
will they never stop?"
*Raymond Ibrahim is the author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War on
Christians (published by Regnery with Gatestone Institute, April 2013).
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Erdoğan’s Power
Grab: Is a Military Coup Possible in Turkey?
Middle East Briefing/June 26/16
Is Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seriously threatened by a coup
d’état? The short answer is: No. Erdoğan’s political moves are based on a
sensitive balance between two major elements. On the one hand, there is the
substantial popularity of his ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
On the other hand, there is the general impasse of Ankara’s foreign policy, the
economic implications of that impasse, and the President’s ongoing efforts to
reduce the secular basis of the state. Changes in this balance will determine
the answer to the initial question as time passes.
The sheer weight of Erdoğan’s popularity objectively reduces the chances of a
coup. But more failure in his foreign policy and more intentional attacks on the
secular foundation of Turkish state enhance those chances, particularly since
they have immediate implications for Turkey’s economy. Barring a general
political crisis or wide-scale popular protests, it is difficult to conceive of
the Turkish army making a move against the president.
Erdoğan is aware that he should accommodate the army and has been determined to
strengthen his ties with the generals. But the Turkish president’s efforts have
not always brought about the results he hoped to see. He still has to step
carefully when it comes to matters that may irritate the armed forces.
It is true that some of the elements of this equation lately have been going
through noticeable changes in their relative weight. We will examine here how
these elements are approached by the Turkish president at the current delicate
moment.
Erdoğan’s Foreign Policy:
Turkey has problems with its eastern neighbors (the Russians), its western
neighbors (the Europeans), its southern neighbors (the Syrians – or at least
portions of them), and his major ally (the US). Yet, Erdoğan has lately been
trying to modify slowly his approach to those issues and eventually make a soft
U-turn.
Signs of a U-turn are numerous. US CENTCOM Commander Army General Joseph Votel
made an unannounced trip to Turkey at the end of May. During the visit, General
Votel achieved something that has been very difficult to achieve during the past
few years: he got Turkey’s conditional approval for the Kurdish Democratic Party
of Syria (PYD) and its armed wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) (both
affiliated with the arch enemy of Turkey, the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK)), to
operate freely in the fight against ISIL on one condition: not to cross to the
western bank of the Euphrates unless it is absolutely necessary, and if that is
the case, not to remain there once the battle against ISIS is over.
Previous to Votel’s visit, Erdoğan insisted on resisting US-YPG cooperation at
any cost. Most likely, the new softer position of the Turkish president was not
due to any particular charm General Votel possesses. When Votel arrived in
Turkey, Erdoğan was starting to realize that he may indeed be cornered.
One week after Votel’s departure, Erdoğan’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu
admitted that Turkey had reversed its opposition to US cooperation with the YPG.
“If the YPG wants to give logistical support on the east of the Euphrates then
that is different. But we do not want even a single YPG militant to the west [of
Euphrates] especially after the operations. The US has given a guarantee about
this”, he said.
Parallel to this U-turn in the north of Syria, Erdoğan has been reviewing his
policies on Russia, Egypt, and Israel. In the case of Russia, Erdoğan sent a
message to Moscow’s officials on the occasion of Russia Day, June 12. Russia’s
ambassador to Ankara, Andrey Karlov, was present with the diplomatic corps in
the Ramadan Iftar hosted by the Turkish Presidency.
On June 17, Turkey’s Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım had a blunter message
calling for reconciliation with Russia, Egypt, Israel, and even Syria’s Bashar
al-Assad.
“Israel, Syria, Russia, Egypt. There can’t be any permanent enmities between
these countries encircling Black Sea and the Mediterranean. An incident happened
with Russia. We of course won’t allow the violation of our right to sovereignty.
However, it’s not right to stick to a single incident. We need to look at the
bigger picture. There is no animosity between our peoples. It’s possible to
return to the old days and even take it further.”
At the same time, Turkey’s ambassador in Moscow held a meeting with Russia’s
nationalist politician and Liberal Democratic Party boss Vladimir Zhirinovsky
asking him to play a role in improving relations with the two sides. “Our
ambassador has been in contact with Liberal Democratic Party leader Zhirinovsky;
likewise he has been with a lot of interlocutors in the Russian Federation and
it is true that a meeting in this context was held a short while ago,” a senior
Foreign Ministry official told Turkish media on June 17.
Furthermore, Turkey has given up on its demand of establishing a “safe zone” (SZ)
in northern Syria. Following the meeting between US Defense Secretary Ashton
Carter and his Turkish counterpart Fikri Işık on June 14 in Belgium, Turkey’s
Defense Ministry issued a statement on the matter of a SZ in Syria. “Reports
released in media and titled ‘safe zone to be created’ do not reflect the
truth,” the statement said.
Furthermore, while in Turkey, US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said
on June 17 that the Manbij campaign, which is being carried out in Syria with
the support of the international coalition against ISIL, was having real success
due to cooperation with Turkey.
“In fact, we are working together in Manbij and this is a very important
operation. There is a piece of the border between Turkey and Syria that has been
under the control of Daesh [ISIL]. And that Daesh has used it to get foreign
fighters coming into Syria, to replenish its supply of fighters, but also to
send fighters, terrorists out of Syria once they’ve been trained to attack in
Turkey, to attack in Europe, to attack in the United States. Together, we came
up with an operation to try to close that border, both from the West, moving
west to east, and also from the East and the South moving up north and west.
That operation is having real success and it’s a result of coordination,
cooperation between the United States and Turkey,” Blinken said.
Erdoğan and the Secular-Democratic State:
According to Turkey’s Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım, the country is already
ruled by a presidential system. “The people chose their president. This is
already the de facto situation. Now we need to make the new constitution
according to the preferences of the people. Whether it be a presidency with a
party or a semi-presidency,” Yıldırım told a group of journalists on June 16.
But Erdoğan’s opponents believe that his real objective is to dismantle the
secular-democratic state one step at a time. And they have good reasons to make
them believe so.
In addition to writing a new constitution, Erdoğan is trying to change the
official historic status of the Turkish republic founder Kemal Atatürk. One of
Erdoğan’s aides said to the press in mid-June that Atatürk will be mentioned
only with his “founder” title in the new constitution.
“The prevailing view is that there should be no reference to any specific
ideology in the new constitution,” Mehmet Uçum, a chief adviser to Erdoğan, said
in an interview at the presidential palace in Ankara, unveiling the Turkish
leadership’s plans to remove references in the constitution binding public
servants to the ideology of Atatürk, the nation’s secular founder, as part of a
comprehensive overhaul of the state, its principles and institutions under
Erdoğan, and the ruling AKP government.
“It’s thought to be more appropriate if the constitution’s preamble states that
Atatürk is the founding leader of the Turkish Republic,” Uçum told Bloomberg, in
remarks which led to snowballing reactions from all three opposition parties
holding seats in the national assembly.
Main opposition leader Republican People’s Party (CHP) Deputy Chair Yasemin Öney
Cankurtaran said in response: “Atatürk is our red line. Such a thing can never
be accepted”. “As the CHP, we will look out for Atatürk’s name, picture, words
and principles to the bitter end. In a country built with Atatürk’s will,
neither his name, nor his thoughts, nor the things he left can be forgotten. No
such thing is acceptable. The words of the president’s advisor are nothing but
an attempt to put out feelers. He is trying to test the will of the people. But
this country’s people and the CH Party [CHP] will never let such a thing
happen,” Cankurtaran said.
As we mentioned above, barring a general crisis in Turkey, Erdoğan stands a good
chance to get away with changing the constitution and altering the status of
Atatürk. His main concern is the armed forces which traditionally view
themselves as the defenders of both the secular state and Atatürk.
Erdoğan’s Relations with the Armed Forces:
Turkey’s military has staged four coups d’état in the country’s history. This
history is vivid in Erdoğan’s mind. The Turkish president was careful to
strengthen his ties with the Turkish army at all times of his rule over Turkey.
He gave the military a “carte blanche” to fight the PKK in order to avoid the
usual pretext used by army generals previously, that politicians constrain the
armed forces’ otherwise-probable success against terrorist groups.
It is ironic that while Erdoğan is facing a simmering crisis with the European
Union (EU), he uses the EU accession criteria as a pretext to trim the military
role in Turkey’s political life.
Due to Erdoğan’s AKP popularity, in April 2007 the president succeeded in
turning a preview of another military coup into a fight to isolate the generals
and reduce future prospects of military intervention in Turkish politics. At the
time, the military posted a communiqué on their official site warning against
electing Abdullah Gül as president, claiming that he is an Islamist and
referring to the fact that his wife wears the hijab. The AKP mounted a huge
popular mobilization against the generals and Gül was elected.
Erdoğan finally succeeded in putting a general loyal to him, Necdet Özel, in the
post of chief of staff. This led to a substantial improvement in the president’s
relations with the Turkish army.
Yet, it is not accurate to conclude that the army has become an ally of Erdoğan.
Relations between the Turkish president and the generals are a work in progress.
The army has gone as far as sending a message to Erdoğan through his close
associate Ismail Kahraman warning against any modification of the constitutional
amendment that defines Turkey as a secular republic. Erdoğan heeded the warning
and shelved his plans for now, settling for more modest constitutional
modifications.
The Economic Situation:
Turkey’s GDP per capita has flatlined between 2015 and 2016. Some speculations
go as far as assuming it will decline this year, as it did in 2015 compared to
2014. The unemployment rate steadily grew as high as 11.1% last January, up 2%
from the year before. It is not accurate, however, to characterize the economic
situation as problematic. Turkey’s economy is still vibrant and offers broad
potential for growth.
But the issue is that most of the avenues of growth are just about foreclosed
because of Erdoğan’s foreign policy. The golden days of the “zero problems with
neighbors” policy of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and former Foreign
Minister Ali Babacan are gone.
Turkey’s relations with the EU, Iran, Syria, and Russia are in their lowest
points for decades. If Erdoğan does not replace his policy of “zero neighbors
without problems” with a pragmatic approach, he will be stuck with helplessly
watching the rising tide of discontent, either in the street or among the
business elite.
In fact, this is precisely where Erdoğan’s Achilles heel is. Economic stagnation
will certainly lead to public protests. In turn, public protests will open all
possibilities, including a military coup
Why Fighting ISIL Messaging
After its Defeat is Difficult
Middle East Briefing/June 26/16
The job of Michael Lumpkin, who left the Pentagon to take the post of
counter-propaganda czar in the State Department, deserves to be called a job
from hill. Whatever Lumpkin does will remain restrained in a limited space so
long as a wider Islamic reform movement is not launched in the Islamic world.
Lumpkin, who was Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and
Low-Intensity Conflict (SOLIC), took the job of head of the Global Engagement
Center at the State Department recently. What Lumpkin will face in the near
future in an organization determined to preserve its inspiration and symbolism
after it is defeated as a “state”. To achieve this, ISIL will have to give an
even larger role to its media arm.
Militarily, ISIL will be transformed into an insurgency. The new message of the
group in that phase will have a larger dose of religious history and increased
justifications of the principle of establishing a caliphal state in order to
prevent the erosion of their jurisprudent bases in face of the criticism of
their main competitor: al-Qaeda.
We can expect this message to be enveloped in emotional appeals to all “true
Muslims” to exact a price in vengeance for the Crusade that destroyed the first
Caliphate in centuries.
This shows clearly that the counter-message to ISIL’s propaganda has never been
technical. In the complex world of Islamic interpretations and theology, the
major part of the counter-message should indeed be religious. Then come the
political, personal, behavioral, and other elements which are usually used in
similar cases.
Testimonies from Muslims tortured by ISIL, documentation of acts of senseless
violence and acts of cowardice from the leaders of the group, taped confessions
of lieutenants of the Caliph, a focus on Muslims’ role in defeating the
organization, papers documenting theft of funds, etc., etc., are all parts of
the package. Yet, the main core of the counter-messaging cannot be done by
Lumpkin and others like him.
The reasons for the effectiveness of ISIL messaging cannot be reduced to how
professionally their videos are made or how glossy their publications are
printed or their active presence on social media sites. This all could be and
should be disrupted. But the message is based on a larger foundation.
Let us see for example of the Sheikh of al-Azhar, who is supposedly the “minaret
of moderation” for all Muslims. The Sheikh, Ahmed el-Tayeb, refused to consider
ISIL members non-Muslims. True that he said that their war is anti-Islamic and
they should be considered enemies of all Muslims, but the Imam, and the entire
influential board of the Islamic scholars (ulama) of al-Azhar refused,
nonetheless, to consider them non-Muslims.
The meaning of a real Muslim has been reduced to rituals and utterances rather
than substance and ethics. The deformation in the interpretation of Islam has
given jurisprudence and the “correct” form of worship a more prominent role than
ethics and the substance of faith.
This deformation has been accumulative and can be explained by many theories.
Yet it is only Muslims who can bring back the essence of spirituality to a
religion hijacked by centuries of cultural stagnation, social backwardness,
political and religious oppression, and a religious establishment that refuses
to question the foundation of its understanding of Islam.
ISIL’s real roots are everywhere in the Muslim countries’ common interpretations
of Islam. It is based on the parts of the public’s common understanding of
Islam, the official Hadith (utterances of the Prophet) literature, the focus on
jurisprudence and “forms” of belief rather than substance, and even the central
curriculum taught by the so-called minaret of moderation, al-Azhar. Faith has
been reduced to a checklist of rites rather than an essence of spirituality
reflected in ethics, behavior toward others, and the view of the world and life
in it. This is why al-Azhar cannot consider ISIL non-Islamic. It fulfills all
the formal requirements of being Islamic, as al-Azhar understands it. Contents
do not matter much. For despite the fact that the organization is described by
the very same Azhar as “an enemy of Islam”, it is still Islamic – an internal
enemy. The substance of faith is not among the categories that define a Muslim
to start with.
But correcting this deformation is essentially the job of enlightened Muslim
scholars, not of any non-Muslim. Only enlightened Islamic thinkers who dare to
subject texts, interpretations, and unfounded books to a sweeping critical
review have a grasp of the current crisis inside Islam. As for Lumpkin, he still
has a lot in his plate. Technical messaging, political counter-propaganda, and
even the role of Arab countries who are fighting ISIL, should be carefully
structured in order to confront ISIL in the post-defeat phase. While the whole
world should help gather Islamic thinkers in a forum where they study the real
roots of the crisis, preparations for a coherent counter-message in the
political, military, and social domains must also be prepared. Instead of
throwing an enlightened thinker like Islam al-Buhairi in an Egyptian prison, he
should be released and given the proper forum, preferably in Europe to avoid
assassination, to follow on his critical work.
The Arab governments should help, and should be helped, in confronting ISIL
propaganda. By fighting against the organization, governments will be inclined
to defend their role in the organization’s defeat. There is only one way for
them to do so: prove that the group is indeed un-Islamic in word and action.
Revulsion towards terrorism and extremism should be turned into a tool to mold
actively public opinion in the Muslim countries. The media is a powerful weapon
in that regard. TV soap operas can be effective if they are intelligently
written. For the bigots who make attacking Islam their job, it is sufficient to
ask: What do you want exactly? To convert 1.5 billion Muslims? Distinguish
yourselves through looking down on Muslims? Would not it be much better to help
find ideas to encourage Islamic reformers? When one considers Muslims a lower
species or dangerous threat one unknowingly equates himself with ISIL, which
considers all Christians and non-Muslims in general, a lower species and
dangerous threat. Muslims, once they find their road to the real essence of
Islam, are the main ally against radicalism and terrorism. Alienating Muslims is
a direct aid to terrorist groups. An alienated Muslim is an easier target for
terrorists to recruit. Shall we remind the critics how medieval European
Christians used to burn “unbelievers” alive under the watch of the Christian
clergy? All religions have different phases. And the journey for Islam has to be
shortened a bit. For the phase it is now in is too long and extremely painful.
The job of Lumpkin is indeed expansive. Yet, it can never substitute for what
the Muslims have to do to save Islam from what the majority of them agree is its
first enemy: ISIL.
Iran’s Hard-liners Maintain
Grip on Power
Middle East Briefing/June 26/16
Some Western analysts are grasping at straws, citing statements by Iranian
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during an international meeting in Oslo, Norway, in
early June as evidence that the “moderate” faction, led by President Hassan
Rouhani and Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is ascendant in Tehran. This
is emphatically not the case. The reins of power remain strongly in the hands of
the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC), which remains a powerful “deep state” within the state,
controlling much of the Iranian economy.
A factional split had emerged earlier this year over the future of Syria, with
the Rouhani-Rafsanjani faction promoting a more flexible attitude towards Syrian
President Bashar Assad’s future. They argued that Iran’s core interests in Syria
— maintaining influence over the government in Damascus, protecting the supply
routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the segment of Syrian territory along the
Lebanese border that is now effectively under Hezbollah control, and maintaining
an uncontested but limited security presence in Syria — could be preserved in a
post-Assad regime.
Khamenei and the IRGC rejected any such “flexibility” on the future of the
regime, and insisted that Assad’s remaining in power was essential to preserving
those Iranian core interests. Khamenei and the IRGC prevailed in this dispute.
This situation remains under control, following a series of tense meetings
between Iranian, Russian, and Syrian military officials, in which they reviewed
the status of the Syrian war. Russian officials complained about the
“amateurish” performance of the Iranian Army and IRGC forces, as well as
Hezbollah, in recent combat in Syria. Iran’s Defense Minister, Brigadier General
Hossein Dehghan, in return, expressed anger at Russia’s deal with the United
States to maintain the ceasefire with the Free Syrian Army, a deal that Iran
only learned of after the fact. On May 7, Iranian forces suffered the heaviest
casualties of the war when Jaish al-Fatah fighters attacked Khan Tuman, south of
Aleppo, killing 13 Iranian officers and taking others hostage.
In the context of those deliberations, the Supreme Leader has named Ali
Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), to an
additional post as senior coordinator of relations with Russia and Syria. The
announcement of the new post came right after the June 9 trilateral meetings in
Tehran. Shamkhani met the next day with visiting Russian Minister of Defense
Sergey Shoygu.
The hard-line leadership in Iran has come to distrust the overall Russian stance
on negotiations on the future fate of Syria, fearing that Moscow is prepared to
sell out Syrian President Bashar Assad, in return for guarantees that Russian
core interests in Syria are preserved in any post-Assad arrangement. The Iranian
negotiators, led by Shamkhani, made clear to Shoygu that Iran remains adamant
that Assad must remain in power, undisputed, in Damascus.
The Supreme Leader informed Zarif that his dealings with the United States are
restricted to the implementation of the P5+1 deal only. When Zarif met with US
Secretary of State John Kerry in Oslo, he made this point clear in their private
talks. Zarif had hoped to have his mandate extended to broader areas of
negotiation, but he was decisively shot down by Khamenei. Iran is furious that
the United States has maintained pressure on Western European and other allied
nations to refrain from full economic engagement with Tehran, citing the
secondary sanctions on Iran’s terrorist activities, barring foreign banks from
dealing with sanctioned individuals and entities in Iran. This is aimed directly
at the IRGC-controlled businesses, which still dominate the country’s economy.
Since the final P5+1 agreement, investments in Iranian domestic industries have
fallen by 2.2 percent, and domestic purchases of building materials used in
construction and manufacturing have slipped even further. As a result of the
continuing US sanctions, Iran has been less than successful in reaping the
promised economic benefits of the P5+1 deal and the formal end to the United
Nations sanctions.
The continued strength of the hard-liners was further reflected in the two
elections that took place in late May. On May 24, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati was
elected head of the Assembly of Experts, the powerful 86-member body that will
select the next Supreme Leader. Jannati also heads the Guardian Council, which
purged many leading reformist and moderate candidates from the ballot before the
elections for the Assembly and the Majlis. Jannati won the post with 51 of the
86 votes cast. The reform candidate, Ebrahim Amini, got only 21 votes. Several
days later, Ali Larijani was re-elected as Speaker of the Majlis, winning an
overwhelming 237 of the 276 votes cast. Days earlier, in a crucial test vote,
Larijani had defeated reform candidate Mohamed Reza Atef as temporary speaker.
After that defeat, Atef delegated Mostafa Kavakebiyan to run as the reformist
candidate in the full Speaker election. He got only 11 votes.
Prior to the Majlis vote, General Qassem Soleimani had come out strongly
endorsing Larijani for Speaker. Supreme Leader Khamenei also expressed his
support for Larijani.
Rafsanjani was maneuvering behind the scenes in both the Assembly and Majlis
races, but concluded prior to the voting that his cause was lost, for the time
being, due to powerful backing for the hard-line candidates from the IRGC and
Khamenei. Rafsanjani maintained his seat on the Assembly of Experts, and issued
a conciliatory statement that he was “pleased” to maintain his membership and
did not seek the chairmanship of the body. Rafsanjani believes that he can work
with Larijani, and decided that it was better to avoid a head-on confrontation
with the more powerful IRGC-Khamenei faction, despite the outcome of the popular
vote in February. If anything, the Supreme Leader is now more dependent on the
backing of the IRGC than he has been previously. It is a clear reflection of the
fact that things have largely remained the same inside the power circles in
Tehran, despite the P5+1 agreements and the popular support for the
reform/moderate factions. This is the reality that Washington, Moscow, and
Riyadh are faced with, and any illusions that Iran was going through a rapid
change of leadership or orientation towards the outside world, are now firmly
set aside.
Syria: What the Dissent in
the US State Department Tells Us
Middle East Briefing/June 26/16
As long as National Security Advisor Susan Rice and her Deputy Ben Rhodes filter
out what they perceive as risky for the president’s legacy from policies
recommended by US government agencies, the function of the US government will be
reduced to one similar to any Third World country. Yet, the 51 diplomats who
expressed, in an official memo, their objection to the White House policy on
Syria teach us some important lessons. First, that no objective stance taken by
the inner circle around this president, or any other president, can silence the
government institutions. The moment we see such an orderly dissent expressed
internally in any government in the Middle East is the moment when we will have
hope that good governance there is indeed possible.
Second that critics of the president’s approach to Syria, including ourselves,
were not alone. Regardless of the usual spinning of Rice and Rhodes, it is now
unquestionable, thanks to the dissidents’ memo, that President Obama’s policy on
Syria was mired in subjective and self-serving objectives. We learn from the
dissent memo that what we have been observing about the crisis all along is
actually the same as what these diplomats were observing.
The memo states that:
“We are State Department officers who have been involved in the US government’s
response to the Syria crisis in varying capacities over the past five years.
Despite the Secretary’s efforts to deescalate the violence and forge ahead with
the political track, we believe that achieving our objectives will continue to
elude us if we do not include the use of military force as an option to enforce
the Cessation of Hostilities and compel the Syrian regime to abide by its terms
as well as to negotiate a political solution in good faith. Assad’s systematic
violations against the Syrian people are the root cause of the instability that
continues to grip Syria and the broader region. None of us sees, or has seen,
merit in a large-scale US invasion of Syria or the sudden collapse of existing
Syrian institutions. But we do see merit in a more militarily assertive US role
in Syria, based on judicious use of stand-off and air weapons, which would
undergird and drive a more focused and hardnosed US-led diplomatic process.”
But how has the White House responded to this open criticism? Jennifer Friedman,
Deputy White House Press Secretary, had this to say to the media: “The president
has always been clear that he does not see a military solution to the crisis in
Syria, and that remains the case.”
But who is calling for a military solution? The released memo emphasizes over
and over again that there is no military solution. Their point is clear: they
are telling a president who refuses to see how the diplomatic solution can work.
If there is to be a workable diplomatic solution, the only way to achieve it is
to raise the costs of continuing warfare for the regime, including via increased
military pressure. Any other approach, like Obama’s current approach, gives free
rein to the regime, leaving us in the protracted conflict we are now witnessing.
In other words, when the president blocks all avenues leading to “negotiat[ing]
a political solution in good faith”, as the memo states, he is actually
promoting the military solution that his aides keep parroting that he refuses.
Finally, thanks to the courage of these diplomats, the memo outlines the correct
approach that should be adopted by the next administration. A number of the
Pentagon generals agree with the president on the principle of doing nothing or
doing the minimum. But those generals should understand that a smaller assertive
role today is the only way to avoid a larger military involvement tomorrow. ISIL
appeared only in 2014, that is, two years after the civil war started. If the
crisis is not solved politically, it will evolve in a way that leaves the US no
option but to intervene militarily. More threats will certainly appear in the
spheres of terrorism, sectarianism, regional escalations, and the stability of
neighboring countries. We have seen many generals, diplomats, and politicians
swallow their words after defending and promoting what later was proved to be
utter blunders. They find solace in the short memory of people and the
ineffective post-hoc condemnations of historians. But the Syrian people will
neither forget nor forgive. But does the situation on the ground right at this
moment support the stance of the dissident diplomats? Absolutely. Let us see
how.
Hezbollah:
In the battle of Khalsa, Hezbollah and Iranian-commanded militias suffered their
worst losses since the beginning of the war. The entire region of south Aleppo
is falling one piece at a time under the control of the opposition. Russian
planes did not intervene in the battles of this region. In a remarkable turn,
Hezbollah fighters accused units of the Assad-led Syrian army of not protecting
their backs. Relations between Syrian army commanders and Hezbollah fighters are
reported to have soured recently. Assad’s army commanders are Syrian in
identity; they see their role from that perspective. Hezbollah’s role in Syria
is similar to that of mercenaries. They are told that by fighting in Syria they
are defending the Shia land in southern Lebanon. They may grasp this. But
battlefield coordination between different forces with different command
structures has always been a major logistical problem. Furthermore, there are
reports among the elders of the Alawi community in Syria that Hezbollah and the
Iranians are starting to convert segments of this community to Shia faith. There
are distinctive theological differences between the two faiths. This should have
encouraged a swift move from the US diplomacy to explore, and potentially widen,
the cracks in the Assad camp in order to get the Syrian president to start “good
faith talks” to end the war. But perhaps Rhodes does not agree.
Russia:
Moscow understands that, unfortunately for its strategy in the Middle East,
president Obama will leave office at the end of this year. Leaking the letter of
the State Department diplomats is, in and of itself, a masterful piece of
diplomacy. It is an open message that everyone in Washington understands, to the
effect that Syria is the worst blunder in Obama’s foreign policy record. This
means that Obama’s failed approach is set to change regardless of who will
become the next president. Vladimir Putin senses that change is coming and
setting up his position so he can continue Russia’s cooperation with the US and
avoid any future American clash with his overall game plan. Following Secretary
Kerry’s impatient warning about Assad’s continuing breaches of the ceasefire
agreement, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu paid a surprise visit to Syria
on June 18. The visit came a little over a week after Shoygu met his Syrian and
Iranian counterparts in Tehran. In both meetings, the Russian Minister expressed
increasing disapproval of Assad’s tactics in the war zone and his determination
to block the political process and seek a military solution. The Russians are
indeed restless. They see Assad using them to achieve a different objective than
the one they agreed to seek in their understanding with Kerry.
The difference is simple: Kerry and Lavrov agreed to implement a cessation of
hostilities in order to cool down the situation as a step to prepare for talks
and to stop the ongoing slaughter of civilians, while Assad is determined to
“free every inch” of Syria of the armed opposition groups.
The position of the Iranians is oscillating between the minimum requirement,
which is preserving Assad on top of the “meaningful” Syria – the western portion
of the country – and the maximum, which is enabling him to control all of Syria,
if possible. After repeated losses in the ranks of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Corp (IRGC) fighting in Syria, Tehran decided to reduce the direct
involvement of the IRGC units, and support instead Hezbollah and other Shia
militias to help the Syrian army. But this “solution” is showing its limits on
the ground. The losses of the IRGC soldiers turned to be losses of Hezbollah and
the other militias’ fighters. Moreover, signs of frictions between the allies on
the war zone are increasing. Assad and Tehran believe that the ceasefire deal
gave the opposition a chance to regroup and rearm. They think that Moscow is not
determined enough to turn the tables in Syria. The Russians believe that the
zero-sum game of both Assad and Iran will not lead to ending the problem of
Islamic radicalism and violence; neither will it result in a stable Syria.
Moscow seems to be aiming to contain the future prospects of a coherent US
policy on Syria after the departure of Obama. It realizes that the only way to
limit its bleeding in Syria, all the while salvaging its strategic interests
there, is to cooperate with the US now rather than when a new Syria policy is
enacted in a post-Obama Washington.
Iran:
Following the tougher stance of Kerry, and Moscow’s acquiescence to it, Russian
Defense Minister took a new equation to his meeting with his Syrian and Iranian
counterparts in Tehran on June 9. The message was that Tehran and Damascus have
to seriously consider modifying their approach and accepting a political process
before it is too late. It became evident to the Iranians that Russia does not
see the long-term prospects of the war in Syria as necessarily positive,
particularly if the US follows a tougher approach and if Russia is unwilling to
double down. While in Oslo, Norway, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told
Kerry that from that moment on, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Iran would
handle the “Syria Dossier”. The differences between Russia on the one hand and
both Assad and Iran on the other hand have never been clearer. The differences
between Russia on the one hand and both Assad and Iran on the other hand have
never been clearer. But as the Iranians understand their limits and that of
their man in Damascus, they had no choice but to shift gears. The “Syrian File”
has been taken off the table of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and
handed to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This was followed by a decision from
Zarif to dismiss his Assistant for Arab Affairs’ Amir Abdollahian, who is
considered too close to Assad to the IRGC. Dismissing Abdollahian was considered
by the hardliners as a sign of a change in directions in Tehran’s Syria policy.
Loud criticism followed the move and groups loyal to the IRGC warned of imminent
change in the country’s policies in Syria and the Arab World. Hardliners in the
Arab side are also putting obstacles in the road of any possible change through
recent provocative decisions. There will be repeated episodes of this mutual
dance, but, at the end of the day, there is a good chance for the new direction
to take hold and move the whole regional strategic conflict to the sphere of
diplomacy.
ISIL:
Under intense pressure in northern Syria, ISIL has pulled its forces from
northern Aleppo and focused on the city’s southern region. Some unconfirmed
reports point to a possible arrangement with other opposition groups in northern
Aleppo. If true, this will be a sign that there are channels between the two
sides. We could not confirm those reports, however. The elements of the picture
are coalescing to indicate a potential road to a political process as the State
Department diplomats wrote. However, this will remain conditional on a steady
US-Russian pressure on Assad and Iran. A favorable factor is the anticipation of
a change in policy in Washington with the change of guards in the White House.
The dissent memo reminds us that this specific factor is becoming a decisive one
in shaping the US approach to the Syrian crisis in the next couple of years.
Terrorist Spillover
in Jordan
David Schenker/Cipher Brief/The Washington Institute/June 26/16
While the general uptick in terrorist attacks on Jordan is troubling, perhaps
the most disturbing aspect is the manner in which violent extremism is crossing
socioeconomic lines.On June 6, five Jordanians were killed during an assault on
a General Intelligence complex twelve miles north of Amman. The incident was
Jordan's largest terrorist attack in more than a decade. With its unabashedly
pro-west, pro-peace orientation, King Abdullah's Jordan has long been a target
of Islamist militants, but the Islamic State (ISIS) constitutes an especially
determined threat. Five years into the war in Syria, it increasingly appears
that ISIS has established a base of support in the kingdom. This isn't the first
time Jordan has faced a persistent terrorist threat. Between 2002 and 2005,
several al Qaeda attacks were perpetrated and interdicted in the kingdom,
including the assassination of an American diplomat, the firing of missiles at
U.S. warships docked in Aqaba port, and the simultaneous bombing of three Amman
hotels. Since 2005, however, Jordan's efficient security apparatus and a popular
backlash against al Qaeda contributed to a decrease in local terrorist acts. As
the war in Syria has dragged on, however, the threat has reemerged. In November
2015, a Jordanian police officer killed two American and two South African
trainers, as well as two of his fellow countrymen, at an international police
training facility in Moaqar. More recently, this March, Jordanian
counterterrorism forces raided an ISIS cell at a Palestinian camp in the
northern town of Irbid, killing eight militants allegedly planning attacks
against civilian and military targets. Less widely publicized were several other
terrorist plots interdicted by Jordanian security forces. In July 2015, for
example, seven Jordanians were given lengthy jail sentences and a Syrian was
sentenced in absentia for planning attacks on the Israeli embassy in Amman and
on U.S. troops in Moaqar -- the facility that was subsequently targeted. In
2016, three Syrians were arrested and charged with plotting to strike five
separate Jordanian military and security outposts.
While the general uptick in terrorist activity is troubling, perhaps the most
disturbing aspect of the Baqaa attack is the alleged perpetrator. According to
Jordanian sources, the lead suspect is the nephew of a former parliamentarian.
The involvement of one of the kingdom's elites in this particular attack is
consistent with an alarming trend. To date, three sons of sitting members of
parliament -- a stunning 1.5 percent of MPs -- have been killed fighting the
jihad, either with ISIS or the al Qaeda affiliate Jebhat al Nusra, in Syria.
An estimated 2,500 Jordanians have already joined the ranks of the foreign
fighters in Syria. The susceptibility of this most privileged segment of
Jordan's population to Islamic militancy does not bode well for the long term
stability of the kingdom. How many more among Jordan's less fortunate have
adopted this malignant ideology?
Unlike Iraq, the Jordanian military is well trained and loyal, and will not
collapse under assault from the Islamic State. But ideology traverses borders.
Today, as Jordan's leading expert in Islamist groups, Mohammed Abu Rumman,
recently wrote in the local daily Al Ghad, "the real danger of [ISIS] is not
external, it is internal."According to Abu Rumman, radical Islamist ideology is
reaching Jordan's middle class, students, and educated in an unprecedented way,
"finding a foothold in new areas like Irbid, East Amman, and the [Palestinian]
camps." In large part, he says, that is because the government's strategy to
counter violent extremism has been "neither serious nor convincing"; indeed, he
wrote, it has been a "spectacular failure."
To be sure, Jordan is not alone in having difficulties finding an effective
approach to countering the Islamic State's extremist ideology. The horrific
attack in Orlando suggests ISIS is also making ideological inroads into the U.S.
But the kingdom has it worse than most. Youth unemployment in the state is a
staggering 30 percent. The proximity to Syria, where the nominally Shiite Assad
regime has been slaughtering Sunnis for five years, is also big factor. In
polling taken in 2014, a year before a captured Jordanian air force pilot was
burned alive by ISIS, only 62 percent of Jordanians said they considered ISIS --
and only 31 percent Jebhat al Nusra -- "terrorist" organizations. While more
recent polling conducted by the International Republican Institute suggests that
nearly 90 percent of Jordanians now consider ISIS a terrorist organization, the
remaining ten percent who don't is a concern.
In the wake of the June 6 terrorist attack -- and the June 21 car bomb attack on
a military post along the Syrian border that killed six Jordanian security
officers -- Jordan is brimming with anti-terrorist and patriotic sentiment. Yet
it is all but certain the kingdom will have to contend with the problem of
radicalization -- and perhaps Syrian ISIS sleeper cells -- for years to come.
Jordan is Washington's best Arab ally and is a key partner in the campaign
against ISIS in Syria, providing the U.S. and other western states with airbases
and other critical operational support. More importantly, King Abdullah of
Jordan has been a leading voice of regional moderation, a key voice in
countering the ISIS/al Qaeda narrative. Recognizing the import of the kingdom,
the U.S. provides the state with over $1 billion in annual economic and military
assistance, and refugee funding. At this point, however, money alone is not the
answer to Jordan's terrorist problem. Five years into the revolt, the Obama
Administration's continued indifference to Syria is having a pernicious impact
on security in the kingdom. The longer the war in Syria persists, the more
danger militant Islamist ideological spillover poses to Jordan.
*David Schenker is the Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Arab
Politics at The Washington Institute.
Israel's Leviathan Gas Field:
Politics and Reality
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/June 26/16
Recent headlines about political breakthroughs with Turkey and potential future
gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean are encouraging, but they must be
placed in the context of the steep financial and technological hurdles
associated with such projects.
The May agreement between the Israeli government and a consortium of natural gas
companies led by Houston-based Noble Energy means that development of the huge
Leviathan offshore field can finally proceed, after eighteen months of delays
prompted by Israeli domestic politics and legal challenges. Even so, the final
decision on investment is unlikely to be issued before December, the first
Leviathan gas is not expected to come ashore until late 2019, and host of
challenges could limit the overall economic impact of Israel's gas discoveries.
TEMPERING POLITICAL OPTIMISM
Last week, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz spoke of "a vision for the next
decade," when "Israel will be a major player in the energy market" because "as
much as four Leviathans" worth of gas is waiting to be found. And on June 20, a
Reuters story noted that natural gas was "a key driver of efforts to forge a
rapprochement between Israel and Turkey."
From a geological and technological perspective, however, the future is less
rosy. Yes, more gas is likely out there, and perhaps oil as well. But the latter
would not be commercially viable to exploit at current prices, and finding the
former is a very expensive endeavor. Drilling an exploratory hole alone costs
over $100 million, using a pricey rig that floats in water 6,000 feet deep, with
potential gas deposits at least another 6,000 feet or so under the seabed. Even
with optimistic seismic data, finding any gas, let alone in commercial
quantities, can be a hit-or-miss exercise. And notwithstanding Steinitz's "four
Leviathans" claim, the size of an offshore field is just one factor affecting
its potential profitability. For example, Egypt's Zohr field, found last year
and notionally even larger than Leviathan, contains gas contaminated with
hydrogen sulfide, which will need to be removed at additional cost.
Moreover, according to the latest edition of the BP Statistical Review of World
Energy, Israel's current "proved" reserves constitute just 0.1 percent of the
global total -- a figure similar to that of Bahrain and Yemen, but far below
industry leaders Iran (18.2 percent), Russia (17.3 percent), and Qatar (13.1
percent). This fact, coupled with Noble Energy's tortuous experience in the mire
of Israeli politics, could lead oil and gas exploration companies with the
necessary technological and financial heft to concentrate their efforts
elsewhere. And despite reports the contrary, the first phase of exploiting
Leviathan (i.e., up to 2019) does not include plans for exporting gas to Turkey
-- a prospect complicated by unresolved political differences regarding Cyprus.
ISRAEL'S GAS BY THE NUMBERS
Confusingly, gas statistics are often expressed in a mixture of U.S. units
(cubic feet) and metric units (cubic meters), while gas prices are based on
energy content (dollars per million British thermal units, or mBTU) rather than
volume. Israel's claimed (as opposed to proved) total reserves are around 35
trillion cubic feet (tcf), all discovered by Noble-led consortia, including the
22 tcf in Leviathan. In addition, the Aphrodite field near Cyprus has around 4
tcf. Only one Israeli field is currently in production, the 10 tcf Tamar, which
lies fifty miles off the port of Haifa. About 8 billion cubic meters (bcm), or
0.28 tcf, of Tamar gas is being pumped ashore annually for electricity
generation in the civil and industrial sectors, meeting about half of Israel's
requirements. Coal is the other principal fuel for generating electricity, with
diesel oil a backup option.
All of Israel's fields lie beyond the 12-nautical-mile boundary of its
territorial waters but within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to
the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, such zones extend 200 nautical miles
from a country's coast; in practice, when a neighboring territory is less than
400 nautical miles distant, the maritime border is the midpoint between the two
coasts, or about 85 miles in the case of Israel and Cyprus.
Mirroring the recent collapse in oil prices, gas prices have also fallen,
further complicating investment decisions for projects that are typically twenty
years in duration. Many existing contracts are for higher prices than the
current spot rates for individual cargoes, which can be as low as $4 per mBTU.
And the expansion of trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) has removed the
so-called Asian premium; prices in the Far East have fallen substantially from
around $15 per mBTU. This makes the high cost of developing a gas field even
more of an obstacle. After relocating the proposed position of the platform
where Leviathan's gas will be cleaned before entering Israel's pipeline network,
the partners have increased planned annual capacity to 21 bcm per year while
pruning capital costs by around $1 billion. But they are still looking at the
prospect of spending $5-6 billion before the first gas comes ashore.
THE NEED FOR CUSTOMERS
Noble Energy judges that current gas demand in the Eastern Mediterranean area
exceeds supplies by more than 40 bcm, and this gap will more than double by
2025. As such, the prospects for attracting customers should be good, though
progress is currently slow.
In 2014, Jordan signed a memorandum of understanding to buy gas from Noble for
its electric power grid, but it is reluctant to commit to a firm contractual
obligation. Domestic political opposition, based on antipathy toward Israel,
makes sealing that deal a challenge -- saying the Leviathan gas is from Noble
rather than Israel does not fool the average Jordanian. In addition, Amman is
already importing comparatively cheap LNG via the Red Sea port of Aqaba, and it
has offers of nuclear reactors from Russia and oil via new pipelines from Iraq.
King Abdullah, the country's ultimate decisionmaker, is said to take the
long-term view in favor of Leviathan gas, delivered via a pipeline yet to be
built but probably funded by the United States. And two Jordanian industrial
plants by the Dead Sea are already scheduled to receive an initial supply of
Israeli gas from the Tamar field. But bureaucratic obstacles on both sides of
the border -- not to mention a literal minefield -- are hampering completion.
Egypt is another likely customer for Leviathan gas, perhaps through an existing
pipeline. Its indigenous supplies are actually more plentiful than Israel's, but
they are being used for municipal power generation. Importing Israeli gas could
help Egyptian industry, which is often starved for supplies because of the
greater political need to keep public demand satisfied.
At one point the Palestinian Authority intended to buy Leviathan gas for a
proposed power plant in the West Bank city of Jenin, but it has since canceled
that plan. Its sole existing gas field, off the shores of the Gaza Strip, is a
potentially useful 1 tcf in size, but PA authorities do not want to exploit it
yet because Gaza's current ruling faction, Hamas, would likely benefit.
Turkey would not become a prospective customer for Leviathan until phase two of
the field's development, which theoretically begins after the gas starts flowing
in late 2019 or early 2020. From Ankara's point of view, that date could not
come sooner -- at least economically, though probably not politically given the
current antipathy toward Israel. Russia currently provides almost 60 percent of
Turkey's annual gas imports of 47 bcm, but military tensions between the two
have been growing over Syria. Iran supplies another 15 percent, with Azerbaijani
gas and LNG from Algeria and others accounting for the remainder. Turkey's
current price situation is also bad -- prior to a recent discount agreement,
Iranian gas cost $14.2 per mBTU and Russian gas $12. Even after the discounts,
Leviathan gas could be obtained at a much more reasonable cost, though it
probably wouldn't be enough to fully replace any of Turkey's current suppliers.
Now that they have survived being at the center of an Israeli political debate,
Noble Energy and its local partners are obliged to reduce their ownership shares
in several of the seven offshore fields discovered thus far. Yet finding foreign
companies willing to invest in Israel's energy sector is proving difficult, and
some interested firms (e.g., from Russia) are undesirable. While the Leviathan
partners have obtained regulatory approval and are working on engineering and
design issues, they still need sales agreements to secure additional financing.
These are realities for natural gas projects anywhere in the world, but the
challenges for Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean are particularly great.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy
Program at The Washington Institute.
Slouching towards a not so
brave new world
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
The stunning success of the campaign for the British exit from the European
Union, or Brexit, is one of those “hinge moments’ in history whose
reverberations are usually felt for many years. This is by far the most damaging
blow to Europe’s fantastic rise from the rubbles of WWII and its long march
towards a united Europe, whole and free, and the promised United States of
Europe. The rejection of the EU by a simple majority of the populations of the
United Kingdom cannot be reduced to one overarching cause. For years to come,
scholars, historians, journalists, politicians; the serious ones and the
charlatans will analyze the reasons, assess the consequences and assign the
blames. Already much has been written about the fear and loathing that led
Britain to sever its 43-year complex association with the continent, about the
angst and anger that alienated a large number of British citizens from the
political and financial elites in London who were overtaken by the sirens of
technological progress, open borders and greater integration, the limitless
promise of the globalization of prosperity and the benefits of immigration. One
incessant refrain heard from the proponent of withdrawal from the European Union
was: we want the restoration of our sovereignty. This was maybe the loudest
battle cry of this rebellion against globalization and against the conceit
behind the concept of “beyond Westphalia” which prematurely celebrated the
fraying of traditional national sovereignty that emerged after the Peace of
Westphalia of 1648.
The Brexit will make an already diminished Europe, more vulnerable to the
insidious forces of xenophobia, Islamophobia, ethno-nationalism and identity
politics within the Union, and will embolden Russian irredentism and strengthen
President Vladimir Putin’s political and strategic leverage in Europe. Putin
will exploit the fact that Brexit will undermine the very idea of the West. In
perilous times, when societies face powerful transformational forces and
currents that are not easily controlled or even understood fully, the worst
thing governments could do is to seek the council of the multitudes and accept
the verdicts even when they are provided by simple majorities no less. In such
uncertain times, the masses, whether in the streets or at the polling stations
often make disastrous choices. Watching the results of the referendum I could
not but think of those wise sages of ancient Greece, Socrates, Plato and
Aristotle who had more than a jaundiced view of Democracy.
Bread and Circuses
The gleeful reaction of Russia, Iran and the right wing forces on the continent
to this blow to the idea of Europe as whole and free, and to the liberal order
that emerged following the collapse of the Soviet Union, is a stark reminder of
the dangers of complacency in the West, the lack of decisive leadership in
Europe and the United States to confront the dark forces within and without, and
the absence of political and economic imagination to make globalization more
inclusive. In bad times the Roman Empire sought to generate public approval and
acquiescence by providing the populace cheap food and by staging spectacular
games to distract the disenchanted; hence the concept of Bread and Circuses,
which took on a tremendous political significance to wield and exercise power.
The modern equivalents of Bread and Circuses will not satisfy the
disenfranchised victims of globalization. The failure of imagination among the
custodians of the liberal order; the politicians, the economists, the public
intellectuals and the leaders of the new industries responsible for the
interconnectedness of a globalized world, to minimize the negative – some would
say the predatory- aspects of globalization, will be a bigger challenge to meet,
after Britain’s decision to shrink itself into a foggy island.
Sins of the fathers
Brexit can also be seen as another manifestation of the “sins of the fathers”,
against their hapless children. Preliminary data shows that 75 percent of people
aged between 18 and 24 voted wisely for remaining in the EU. But this youthful
strata was outweighed by their resentful parents who exhibited what can best be
described as “electoral intensity” when they turned out in very high numbers to
register a resounding no to the European Union. According to the British
pollster YouGov sixty one percent of people over the age of 65 voted for Brexit.
These are the alienated white middle aged men or slightly older voters who feel
that they don’t have an economic or cultural stake in the current order, who
resent the bureaucrats in Brussels who, (they are told repeatedly), are
undermining the sovereignty of a once mighty empire. The Brexit will make an
already diminished Europe, more vulnerable to the insidious forces of
xenophobia, Islamophobia, ethno-nationalism and identity politics within the
Union.
These are some of the victims of globalization, who saw their jobs migrating
overseas, or taken over by new immigrants from Eastern Europe, or Muslim
immigrants from the old colonies and their children. They are threatened by
overwhelming technology, stagnating incomes and salaries, and they are fearful
of what they see as an existential demographic threat: the new Muslim immigrants
and their descendants. For this group of people the recent waves of destitute
refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and migrants from Africa, walking the
highways and byways of Europe, plowing the treacherous waters of the
Mediterranean and drowning by the hundreds, all the while oblivious to national
borders, were the last straw.
That generation of British citizens and their counterparts in the rest of
Western Europe, is the last to have lived in societies that were essentially
homogenous and dominated by (mostly) one national language and one dominant
Church. The fact that Europe today is a multicolor tapestry of peoples from all
over the world, and a modern day tower of Babel emitting a cacophony of sounds
and languages they cannot relate to, have deepened their sense of being
marginalized and overlooked.
Globalization and its discontents
Brexit is in part the first concrete counter-revolution against the forces and
values of globalization that swept the continent after the collapse of the
Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin wall and the advent of the digital
revolution. The European Union was a unique experiment in economic and political
integration involving more than 500 million people, in the richest region in the
world. But the rising tide did not lift all boats and many islands of the
disenfranchised were left isolated and strewn with shipwrecks and angry
stragglers. Globalization did not only leave behind many losers, but it turned
many of them into victims. These losers and victims of globalization instead of
storming the glimmering outposts of the new elites in the financial markets of
London or the political corridors where the faceless bureaucrats of Brussels
roam, they went to the polling stations and exacted their revenge.
Brexit also is the latest example of people voting against their economic
interests, by elevating to the fore what they consider erroneously as cultural
imperatives and concerns. We have them a plenty in the United States, and many
of them are currently under the spell of the orange painted Donald Trump, the
vile snake oil salesman who already conned millions of Americans. The charlatans
of Brexit, people like Nigel Farage the UK Independence Party leader and Boris
Johnson former mayor of London and others deceived the electorate that leaving
the Union not only will be cost free but will save Britain hundreds of millions
of Pounds that Brussels supposedly takes away from Britain every month.
The dire warnings of most financial experts that Brexit will create a huge hole
in the country’s public finances, where summarily dismissed by these slick
purveyors of mendacity. The financial reverberations of Brexit were felt
globally; as expected, American stocks were hit hard and plunged more than 600
points at the closing bell Friday afternoon at Wall Street. A diminished Britain
– and it will be diminished politically, strategically and economically- will
have adverse effects on American interests and influence in Europe, and the
Middle East where Britain was a reliable ally for generations. If Brexit,
triggers similar moves in other EU countries, a clear and present danger, the
whole idea of a post war Europe whole and free could be irreversibly undermined,
leading the U.S to hasten its pivot to Asia.
The brief history of globalization tells us that its antithesis; tribal
nationalism, remained alive and well. These two active forces collided in Europe
in the 1990’s; greater economic and political integration in the continent, at a
time when the Balkan region was tearing itself apart in the worst ethnic and
religious bloodletting on European soil since the Second World War and the Nazi
war of extermination against the Jews. The best aspirations of globalization
proceeded along with the worst impulses of exclusion and tribalism. In addition
to the positive forces brought about by globalization, such as technological
progress and communication, interconnectedness, the breakdown of artificial
barriers to trade and the movement of peoples and ideas; globalization has
spawned also the countervailing forces, of xenophobia, ethno-nationalism,
autocratic tendencies, nativism, narrow identity politics and deepened the
hostility to incorporating immigrants and even refugees fleeing the threat of
mass murder. In the Middle East, technological advances, the internet and social
media were used as effective tools of mobilization by the most atavistic forces
active in the region, primarily ISIS.
Although Sectarianism in the Middle East preceded these technological
innovations, one could say that, paradoxically, globalization has fanned the
flames of sectarianism; that are consuming countless numbers of mostly Sunni and
Shiite young men. Brexit was a victory in part for xenophobia, Islamophobia,
tribal and parochial nationalism, and the rejection of immigrants and refugees.
These attitudes have hardened the hearts of peoples who lived for decades in
liberal, pluralistic and humane societies; hence the shocking indifference in
western countries to the plight of Syrian refugees for example, even though
stemming the flow of refugees through a political settlement is both a moral
imperative, and a political necessity that serve also western interests.
Europe’s maladies, America’s immunities
Donald Trump, who was in Scotland insensitively and shamelessly peddling his own
business and explaining how his golf courses and hotels will prosper as a result
of the fall of the British pound, wasted no time in celebrating both Britain’s
woes and its referendum folly. He saw in Britain’s withdrawal from the EU a
vindication of his own xenophobia, and hostility to immigrants and international
trade agreements. “The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred
right of all free peoples. They have declared their independence from the
European Union and have voted to reassert control over their own politics,
borders and economy”. The man who has been railing against immigrants crossing
porous borders, and against the tainted “establishment” in Washington that has
been supposedly undermining America’s sovereignty, said of the British
electorate “they took their country back... just like we will take America
back”.
Trump knows that those who voted for Brexit have their own counterparts in
America, people who are anti-bureaucracy, anti-immigrants who chafe that their
national identity is being threatened by the forces of globalization, and who
still yearn for a bygone white Christian America that speaks only English. That
is why Trump can claim that "come November, the American people will have the
chance to re-declare their independence. Americans will have a chance to vote
for trade, immigration and foreign policies that put our citizens first." The
assumption is that Britain, and the US have been highjacked by similar sinister
forces; the immigrants and the compromised elites in Brussels and Washington.
But the United States is not Britain. And Brexit was an up or down vote on a
proposition, and not a national election of a President, the full House of
Representatives and an important number of Senators and Governors. America’s
electoral system is more complex and is usually determined by the votes in the
Electoral College, and Trump even at this late stage in the race does not have a
campaign in the traditional sense and has yet to start collecting a war chest,
not to mention that he is running against a strong opponent in Hillary Clinton.
America has immunities against the maladies that made Brexit succeed, such as a
rich and valued history of immigration that has helped build a pluralistic
society.
America’s experience with immigration, while not ideal is radically different
from Britain’s (and Europe’s) history with immigration. America does not have a
colonial legacy in Africa or the Middle East. Fear-mongering and xenophobia can
go too far in a country like Britain, or France, but they can go so far in
America before they trigger a strong backlash. There are powerful societal
forces and constituencies in the United States that will create a countervailing
force to neutralize the appeal of Trump’s politics of division and fear.
However, complacency should be avoided at any cost.
Yet the negative forces that Trump unleashed in the US and the right wing
populist and exclusionist movements gaining influence in some countries in the
European Union, could with a little help from Putin undermine 70 years of a
western liberal order that, notwithstanding its limitations and shortcomings is
still the best antidote against the dark forces of autocracy, political
repression, unbridled nationalism, religious extremism and intolerance. There is
no science for the future, and only time could tell, if we are slouching towards
a not so brave new world.
A twist of fate called Brexit
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
Thomas Mair has won. Jo Cox has failed. No, this is not ascertaining the recent
murder of the brilliant British MP, but an allegorical description of the
results of the Brexit vote. The British people have rejected the several
advantages of life in the European family. They said no to refugees and yes to
nationalism; probably yes to disintegration. The reasons why the majority had
voted to leave are numerous, but three major factors played a key role in
determining the result. First is the traditional, geographically predetermined,
British nationalism, which received a strong boost since the strengthening of
Brussels influence and power, since the beginning of the refugee crisis and the
rise of xenophobia and Islamophobia. Secondly, it was also about irresponsible
attitude toward the referendum itself. According to recent data, “leave” voters
now avow that they would re-vote to “stay” if the second referendum were
offered. This is because, while voting to “leave” they could not actually
imagine that such a scenario is really possible in their country. Thirdly, it is
elementary ignorance of basic understanding of matters related to vote. Many
people voted not by using their mind, but intuition, or just by chance, plunging
their country into a crisis in the process. Churchill’s famous quote is relevant
here: “The best argument against a democracy is a five minute conversation with
the average voter!” This average voter has apparently thrown a huge stone in the
system that generations have been constructing brick by brick. In the current
situation, the resignation of David Cameron looks like an act of cowardice. He
played with the European Union, tried to arm-twist Brussels and pushed it to
give Britain more preferences. He basically overplayed the entire thing. It was
he who started the Brexit story. He had to be the one to accept the results no
matter what they were. To start a fight and then to retreat from the battlefield
is something lacking nobility. Cameron has now left it to someone else to solve
the problem he caused. His resignation is not a punishment, but a rescue,
because to lead the country after such vote and such decision would have been
the true punishment for him. Matthew Norman wrote in The Independent, that
Cameron “will go down in history as the Prime Minister who killed his country”.
It should also be admitted that David Cameron would have hardly launched a
debate over Brexit if he had known that the vote would be “to leave”. He was
sure of the opposite result. There is also something wrong with the election
survey these days. They depict a false picture to the public and provide
inaccurate trends. Badly conducted surveys are dangerous for referendums.
EU structure
Brexit is wrong even though one should admit that the European Union is not an
ideal structure and that its political system does not work properly. Instead of
harmonizing the policies of the member states, it follows the diktat of
Brussels, dominated by Berlin over entire Europe. And if one adds to this
cocktail the influence Washington exerts on Brussels, then in my opinion, it
pushes the EU in a direction most favorable to the US. Either way, the political
imperfection of the union is obvious. But its economic component, the freedom of
movement without limitations, opportunity to work wherever you want within the
borders of the Union – all of this is something that should not be wasted. The
system needs to be safeguarded by all parties involved. And to refuse the
advantages of the economic unity and social mobility appears wrong, if not
silly. The Brexit vote is a blot in the history of integration and
globalization. This is now beginning of a new chapter for the European Union. It
appears that the countries are not only willing to join this union but to leave
as well. The possibility of domino effect remains. To cope up with these,
countries would prefer to close their borders and try to tackle challenges at a
national level. Russia would be happy with the disruption of NATO. But as far as
the European Union is concerned, Moscow wants it to be strong. Some political
figures and the media congratulated Vladimir Putin over the referendum results
and insinuated that the “leave” vote is his personal victory. Such statements
are uncalled for. Russia would be happy with the disruption of NATO. But as far
as the European Union is concerned, Moscow wants it to be strong. And the
stronger, the better. To United Kingdom, where Scotland and Northern Ireland
voted to stay, this referendum promises the loss of these parts in the long
term. It literally means the beginning of the collapse of what was once one of
the most influential states in the world. And the separatist movement in
Scotland and Northern Ireland may finally find the strength to call for
independence, something they had been fighting for centuries. There is still a
probability that the second referendum will be held, which could save the
situation. However such a decision would look awkward, at the least. It’s a
twist of fate that the foundations of a European Union were laid down by a
British Prime Minister and another British Prime Minister has undermined these
foundations precisely 70 year later. What started with Winston Churchill has
ended with David Cameron.
Twin brothers kill their parents, as terrorism sneaks into our homes
Turki Aldakhil/Al Arabiya/June 26/16
It was a horrific crime. A mother and father were stabbed to death in Saudi
Arabia by their own twin sons. The crime was premeditated, according to a
statement issued by the Saudi interior ministry, but Saudis were shocked as they
woke to the news last Friday. A year ago, last Ramadan, a wanted man killed his
father in the kingdom’s southwest region of Assir. We cannot consider such
crimes as incidental or copycat occurances. When such crimes occur, we suddenly
wake up and see things, such as intellectual and sentimental mobilization,
clearer than before. However, it's only a matter of time before we resort to
silence again. Only 20 minutes of dialogue a week between family members can
expose an imminent danger that can be deterred. Those who commit such crimes
have been educated at schools and are fed on the rhetoric available around them.
We have huge responsibilities to live up to as we must allocate time to sit with
our children and debate with them. Only 20 minutes of dialogue a week between
family members can expose an imminent danger that can be deterred. The Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) makes use of games and social media to recruit
people. Messages are sent out to youths to recruit them, attract them and
question them about precise details related to their household. A family may get
preoccupied with working to provide for their children. However, one must be
aware of what is going on and sit down with their children for discussions that
could reveal a lot of details that may otherwise remain hidden. Terrorism is
silently sneaking into our homes without us noticing.
This article was first published in Okaz on June 26, 2016.