llLCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

June 05/16

 

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.june05.16.htm

 

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006

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Bible Quotations For Today

I have said this to you, so that in me you may have peace. In the world you face persecution. But take courage; I have conquered the world!’
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 16/29-33:"His disciples said, ‘Yes, now you are speaking plainly, not in any figure of speech! Now we know that you know all things, and do not need to have anyone question you; by this we believe that you came from God.’
Jesus answered them, ‘Do you now believe? The hour is coming, indeed it has come, when you will be scattered, each one to his home, and you will leave me alone. Yet I am not alone because the Father is with me. I have said this to you, so that in me you may have peace. In the world you face persecution. But take courage; I have conquered the world!’"

This is the Moses who said to the Israelites, "God will raise up a prophet for you from your own people as he raised me up
Acts of the Apostles 07/30-38:"‘Now when forty years had passed, an angel appeared to him in the wilderness of Mount Sinai, in the flame of a burning bush. When Moses saw it, he was amazed at the sight; and as he approached to look, there came the voice of the Lord:
"I am the God of your ancestors, the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob." Moses began to tremble and did not dare to look. Then the Lord said to him, "Take off the sandals from your feet, for the place where you are standing is holy ground. I have surely seen the mistreatment of my people who are in Egypt and have heard their groaning, and I have come down to rescue them. Come now, I will send you to Egypt." ‘It was this Moses whom they rejected when they said, "Who made you a ruler and a judge?" and whom God now sent as both ruler and liberator through the angel who appeared to him in the bush. He led them out, having performed wonders and signs in Egypt, at the Red Sea, and in the wilderness for forty years. This is the Moses who said to the Israelites, "God will raise up a prophet for you from your own people as he raised me up." He is the one who was in the congregation in the wilderness with the angel who spoke to him at Mount Sinai, and with our ancestors; and he received living oracles to give to us."

Pope Francis's Tweet For Today
Let us hear the cry of the victims and those suffering, no family without a home, no child without a childhood.
Écoutons le cri des victimes et de ceux qui souffrent, aucune famille sans maison, aucun enfant sans enfance.

لنصغِ إلى صرخة الضحايا والمتألّمين، لكي لا تبقى عائلة بدون بيت وطفل بدون طفولة

 

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 04-05/16

Lebanon: After Municipal Setback, Future Movement in Limbo/Asharq Al-Awsat/Paula Astih and Youssef Diab/June 04/16
International Community Recognizes Difficulties in Relaunching Peace Initiative during Paris Summit//Michel Abu Najm/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 04/16
Could the defeat of ISIS turn to Pyrrhic victory/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/Jube 04/16
After imposing his will on Syria, Putin is moving onto Libya/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/Jube 04/16
Will the Syrian regime ever ease the suffering of its people/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/Jube 04/16
Will the Syrian regime ever ease the suffering of its people/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/June 04/16
Saudi calls on Israel to accept 2002 Arab peace initiative/Elior Levy, Itamar Eichner, Reuters/Ynetnews/June 04/16
Russian Views on the Middle East: A Trip Report/James F. Jeffrey and Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/June04/16
Raqqa Will Not Fall Until Arab Tribes Fight the Islamic State/Fabrice Balanche/ The Washington Institute/June 04/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on June 04-05/16

Lebanon: After Municipal Setback, Future Movement in Limbo
Relations between Hariri and Geagea Deteriorate
Qahwaji Appeases Fears of Terror Threats in Ramadan
Report: Security Concerns Rise, UNIFIL Issues Warnings
Brush Fire Erupts in Several Towns in Akkar and Zahle
Bag of Grenades, Detonators Found in Area between Mdayrij-Hammana
Mustaqbal Urges Clearing Militants, Hizbullah from Arsal Outskirts after Resident Killed by Shelling

Ibrahim, Hamas delegation discuss latest developments
Abi Nasr: We might accept the mixed law to ward off 60s law
French PM Valls says Seine river stable after floods kill four
Mashnouq: It is time to state facts without equivocation
Mashnouq Bureau refutes giving statement to NTV
Lebanese Army carries out raids in Arsal, refugee camps in Wadi Hmayyid
Union of Lebanese Basket Ball meeting kicks off
Scorching temperatures cause fires in Bekaa valley


Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 04-05/16

International Community Recognizes Difficulties in Relaunching Peace Initiative during Paris Summit
Military Officials: Lebanese and Iranian Missiles Discovered in Yemen
Asiri to Asharq Al-Awsat: UN Report is Negative and Contradictory
At Least 33 Killed in Algeria Bus Crash
Algeria Accuses Two Countries of Conspiring to Undermine its Stability
Saudi Ambassador to Iraq: Iranians Heave Sectarian Strife in Fallujah
Syrian troops reach edge of province where ISIS is based
Iraq forces gain ground from ISIS west of Fallujah
Iraq Forces Gain Ground from IS West of Fallujah
Syria Army Thrusts into IS Bastion as Kurds Advance from North
Paris Floods Stabilise as Seine Starts to Recede
U.S. Vows 'Action' if China Builds New S. China Sea Structures
US Now Hitting Islamic State Targets from Mediterranean Sea
U.N. Seeks Assurances from Libya over Arms Purchases
Bahrain Jailbreak Sparks Manhunt
Iran: Seventh anniversary of the martyrdom of Kianoush Asa
Two arrested for publishing caricatures of Iranian regime officials
Another 70 people arrested in Iran for attending mixed-gender party in restaurant
German genocide resolution ‘has no value’: Erdogan
Pope approves measures to oust bishops who botch abuse cases
Boko Haram attack in southeastern Niger kills 32 soldiers
Greatest of all time’ Muhammad Ali dies aged 74
Canada/Statement by ministers Dion and Bibeau on President Obama’s Leaders’ Summit on Refugees

 

Links From Jihad Watch Site for  June 04-05/16

Germany: “Fear and panic” among Christian refugees as Muslims persecute them
Hillary Clinton blames San Bernardino jihad attack on “gun lobby”
Islamic State threatens jihad murders in US, Europe this month
Germany: Refugee background checks “unaffordable”
San Jose: Muslim chases, tackles Trump supporter after rally, then brags on Twitter
Sweden took in 162,000 refugees in 2015 — 494 got jobs
Terror scare on UK-bound flight after Muslim passenger screams “Allahu akbar” and “Boom”
Minnesota: Three Muslims convicted of conspiring to join the Islamic State
Germany: Church holds Muslim funeral for slain Islamic State jihadi

Muslim captured coming over southern U.S. border had ties to Taliban


Latest Lebanese Related News published on
June 04-05/16

Lebanon: After Municipal Setback, Future Movement in Limbo
Asharq Al-Awsat/Paula Astih and Youssef Diab/June 04/16
Beirut-Future Movement is still confounded by the severe loss it suffered in the municipal elections in Tripoli, the capital of the North and Lebanon’s second largest city. Resigned Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi, who fought the elections alone against a coalition of political parties and Tripoli personalities, achieved an unexpected victory last month. The shock that Future suffered from compelled its leaders to launch a campaign of self-criticism to review the mistakes which it had committed and which had led to a drop in popular support for the movement – not just in northern Lebanon but also in the capital Beirut where the results of the municipal polls were disappointing. Unlike many other political parties, Future, which is led by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, has admitted to making mistakes. Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq, who is a party member, has called on the movement to learn from those blunders ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections. The changes in people’s temperament have not only affected the Future Movement but also the rest of the political parties from the March 8 and 14 rival camps. While Hariri hasn’t directly commented on the results of the municipal elections, the ongoing activity at this residence in Beirut suggests that he has launched a mission to rectify the miscalculations. Hariri began to work on unifying members of his party, which is facing the threat of disintegration after Rifi withdrew his membership and hinted that he would form his own movement. Rifi told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that the result of the Tripoli polls put more responsibilities on him to move from the current stage to another level. “I can’t deny that they (the polls) put me in front of a challenge. I will deal with it according to the circumstances that arise in order to meet the people’s expectations,” he said.
Rifi said several factors have led to a change in the public atmosphere. Among them is Future’s “bad choice of nominating MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency and ways in resolving the file of Michel Samaha,” a former minister who is serving time in jail on terrorism charges. Rifi regretted that Future officials preferred to form a coalition with former Prime Minister Najib Miqati in the Tripoli municipal elections rather than cooperating with him to form a joint list of candidates. Rifi denied he has personal problems with Hariri despite rising differences between him and Future. He said Hariri “should admit that I became independent after resigning from the government.”A member of Future’s politburo, former MP Mustafa Alloush, admitted that certain mistakes committed by the movement led to the defeat of the Future-backed coalition in the Tripoli polls. “We hadn’t well analyzed the temperament of the Tripoli electorates,” he said. Asked if he thought that the change in the public atmosphere should be seen by the Future leadership as an alarm bell, Alloush said: “There is a partial and not complete change in people’s temperament.” “Some factors have accumulated in the past 11 years, meaning since the assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri, and there is an absence of stances that mobilize the people,” he said. “Future is not a revolutionary party. It has a lot of pragmatism and is liberal,” he said, adding that the movement does not force people to support it. Sectarian mottos might lead to popular support, he said. But he warned that “such slogans could lead to a disaster.”“When a person is handed a responsibility, he cannot resort to sectarian mobilization,” Alloush told Asharq Al-Awsat, alluding to Rifi. “The stage in the aftermath of the elections imposes a new status quo … which requires more understanding of the people’s choices but without being dragged into instincts,” he said.

Relations between Hariri and Geagea Deteriorate
Asharq Al-Awsat/June 04/16/Reuters Beirut-Relations between Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea and Future Movement leader Saad Hariri are witnessing unprecedented tension after their differences became public.Geagea has accused Hariri of rejecting the understanding reached between the LF and MP Michel Aoun, the founder of the Free Patriotic Movement. Hariri, in his turn, has accused his ally Geagea of obstructing his initiative to resolve the presidential crisis that calls for the election of Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as head of state. Geagea tried to limit the tension on Thursday by issuing an internal memo that urges all LF MPs, officials and media outlets affiliated to it “not to target the Future Movement in any form even if they were countered with certain remarks and stances.”He stressed in the memo that ties with Hariri are “deeper than tactical issues.”Yet some sources believe that the “ongoing misunderstanding” between the two sides has been on the rise, particularly that Future’s resentment of the understanding between the LF and FPM – the two Christian parties- has grown. Future lawmaker Ammar Houri said relations with the LF are “imperfect” since Geagea decided to back last year the so-called Orthodox Gathering draft-law, which calls for each sect to elect its own MPs. Houri told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that the presidential crisis complicated the issue more. In addition to that, the municipal elections that were held last month put more strain on the ties between the two parties when the LF did not support the “Beirutis’ List” that was backed by the Future. Late last year, Hariri nominated Franjieh, a close ally of the Syrian regime for the country’s presidency. His move angered Geagea, who then nominated Aoun. “The first person that put you up for candidacy was [me] Saad Hariri, just a reminder … And it was you and Hezbollah who hindered my initiative to end the presidential vacuum,” Hariri said lately. But Geagea’s advisor Wehbe Qatisha told Asharq Al-Awsat that the LF chief should not be addressed that way. “As if they are telling us: We decide (on your behalf) and you execute,” said Qatisha about Future. “We are not followers and we don’t accept things to be imposed on us.”Qatisha tried to downplay the LF-Future differences by saying “We have a single strategy.”

 

Qahwaji Appeases Fears of Terror Threats in Ramadan
Naharnet /June 04/16/Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji appeased the fears of possible terror attacks during the month of Ramadan and assured that the security forces are vigilant, al-Mustaqbal daily reported on Saturday.“We have no fears during the month of Ramadan. During this month, we work around the clock just like we do during the other months of the year to protect the internal arena,” said Qahwaji. He assured that “in addition to the traditional military procedures, the Lebanese army has taken extreme precautionary measures to deter any security breach in the country.”Qahwaji's comments come as fears spike that the Islamic State group could carry out attacks in Lebanon during the holy month of Ramadan. The security forces were able to clamp down lately on several terror cells in various Lebanese regions. Last month, the Interior Ministry said that the security apparatuses thwarted schemes by the IS group to carry out terror acts, mainly in crowded areas in Beirut. It said that security forces are waging the “fiercest battle” against attempts to shake the security situation.

Report: Security Concerns Rise, UNIFIL Issues Warnings
Naharnet /June 04/16/Security sources in south Lebanon said on Saturday that the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon issued memos warnings their staff to be vigilant citing security concerns, al-Joumhouria daily reported. The memos warned of possible terrorist attacks in south Lebanon, the sources said on condition of anonymity. International organizations have issued similar warnings, they said. Fears that the Islamic State group and extremists have plans to carry out attacks in Lebanon arose lately following the arrest of several cells in different regions. On Thursday, the Lebanese army clamped down on an IS terror cell and killed a militant in Khirbet Daoud in Akkar. Reports said that the detainees are responsible for the killing of three soldiers who where on duty in the towns of al-Bireh and al-Rayhaniyeh, and wounding an Information Branch first adjutant. The General Security arrested on the same day a Syrian national who confessed during interrogations that he had contacts with an IS leader N.A., also known as Abou Iskandar, for the purpose of providing logistical support and supplying weapons and ammo for militants.

Brush Fire Erupts in Several Towns in Akkar and Zahle
Naharnet /June 04/16/from Akkar are trying to extinguish a brush fire on Saturday that burnt about several acres of vegetation in several towns of Akkar, the National News Agency reported. The high weather temperature has sparked the fire which erupted in the towns of al-Arqaf, Masha, Hayzouq and Beit Haddara, NNA added. Firefighters kicked off efforts to extinguish the flames. No injuries were reported. Another fire erupted in Hay al-Maydan in Zahle early Saturday and it was doused by the Civil Defense firefighters team.

Bag of Grenades, Detonators Found in Area between Mdayrij-Hammana
Naharnet /June 04/16/The Lebanese army found on Saturday a bag in an area between Mdayrij and Hammana in the Upper Metn region that contained detonators, hand grenades and bullets, the state-run National News Agency reported. The army found, after midnight, a large “suspicious” bag thrown on the side of the road between Mdayrij and Hammana, NNA said. The Engineering Regiment inspected the bag which contained 60 detonators, 15 hand grenades and around 40 bullets of 12.7 caliber. The findings were not prepared for detonation added NNA. Investigation kicked off into the incident.

Mustaqbal Urges Clearing Militants, Hizbullah from Arsal Outskirts after Resident Killed by Shelling
Naharnet /June 04/16/A Lebanese man who hails from Arsal was killed Friday in the outskirts of the restive northeastern border town as clashes erupted between Hizbullah and the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front in the area, media reports said. “Lebanese citizen Hassan Mohammed al-Fliti, 64, was killed and his son Mohammed, 39, was seriously wounded as they were heading to a cherry grove they own in the Jwar al-Sheikh area in Arsal's outskirts,” state-run National News Agency reported. It quoted the son as saying that “a rocket or a grenade” had exploded near them. The agency did not say where the shelling came from but noted that the region in which the two were hit lies in the middle of areas controlled by al-Nusra and Hizbullah. Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) had earlier reported Hizbullah-Nusra clashes in Arsal's outskirts, adding that the Lebanese army intelligence directorate was "making contacts for a ceasefire."Future TV for its part said “al-Fliti died of his wounds after Hizbullah members opened fire at him in Arsal's outskirts.”Earlier in the day, media reports said Hizbullah attacked a group of Nusra militants in the al-Rahweh area southeast of Arsal. The developments prompted al-Mustaqbal Movement's Arsal-Hermel Department to hold an emergency meeting in which it called on “the government, the interior minister and all influential political forces to clear Arsal's outskirts from all militants, specifically Hizbullah's gunmen who murder and terrorize civilians.”It also called on the Army Command to “preserve security and the safety of Arsal's sons” and to “secure their access to their land and groves.”Militants from al-Nusra and the Islamic State group are entrenched in rugged mountains along the Lebanese-Syrian border and the Lebanese army regularly shells their positions while Hizbullah has engaged in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border. The two groups overran the town of Arsal in 2014 and engaged in deadly battles with the Lebanese army for several days. The retreating militants abducted around 35 troops and policemen of whom four have been executed and nine remain in captivity.


Ibrahim, Hamas delegation discuss latest developments
Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - General Security Chief ,General Abbas Ibrahim, welcomed Saturday before noon at his office a delegation from Hamas Movement headed by Moussa Abou Marzouk with discussions reportedly featuring high on the Palestinian general situation, especially the security one inside the camps. Talks also tackled the latest developments as for cutting- down on the services of the UNRWA for Palestinian refugees.

Abi Nasr: We might accept the mixed law to ward off 60s law
Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - "We might accept the mixed law in a bid to ward off the 60's law which has marginalized Christians for so long; however it is time to hold parliamentary elections as soon as possible," Change and Reform bloc Deputy Naamtallah Abi Nasr said on Saturday during an interview on Free Lebanon radio station. Deputy Abi Nasr highlighted the importance of Meerab-FPM agreement despite the difficulties that it has faced on different levels; this understanding should be developed into a comprehensive and national understanding according to the MP. The Deputy praised Deputy Robert Fadel's resignation considering that Christians were paying the price for their openness and expansion in all regions, unlike the Sunnis, Shiites and Druze. Corruption dominates in all State Institutions, except relatively in Security Apparatuses, he went on. "The entry of a million and a half Syrian refugees into the Lebanese society aims at manipulating the demographic composition of the country under the slogan of humanity," Deputy Abi Nasr added. He noted that the Lebanese state should put a plan to repatriate Syrian refugees to safe zones in Syria with the agreement of the Syrian government.
Commenting on Janneh Dam, Abi Nasr concluded that the dam was an essential developmental need and should be implemented for everyone's interest.

French PM Valls says Seine river stable after floods kill four

Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - Floods that inundated parts of France this week, killing four and forcing thousands from their homes, could start easing as the Seine river stabilised after reaching a peak on Saturday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said. The floods, the worst the French capital has seen since 1982, forced its famous Louvre and Orsay museums to move scores of artworks and precious artefacts to safety. It also disrupted traffic in several areas. The Seine river rose to about 6.10 metres (20.0 ft) on Saturday morning and was now stable, authorities said. In 1982, the river rose to 6.18 metres. "It looks like things are getting calmer," Valls said, adding that a return to normal would take several days. Valls said four people died in the floods and 24 others were wounded and about 20,000 people were evacuated from their homes. "It will take at least a week for the Seine to return to its normal level," said Bruno Jamet, a hydrologist at Vigicrues, a state body that monitors flood levels. He added that the Seine will stay above 6 meters for several hours on Saturday before receding slightly over the weekend. The worst affected areas lay just to the south of the capital. In Villeneuve-Saint-Georges near Orly airport, soldiers and Red Cross volunteers helped stranded residents as flood waters rose above knee level. In nearby Corbeil-Essonnes, locals kayaked along streets littered with abandoned cars. In Paris, the rapid transit metro line RERC that runs close to the river was shut down as well as several metro stations and roads near the banks of the river. Paris landmarks including the Louvre and Orsay museums, the Grand Palace, Discovery Palace and the National Library were closed due to the floods. However, for several tourists visiting the French capital, the Seine bursting its banks was an attraction as many lined Paris bridges to take pictures."I find this rather spectacular," Asma, who is visiting from Lyon in the east of France, told Reuters television. "I'm enjoying looking at the level of Seine river... it is an event to witness. It doesn't prevent us from visiting Paris, and in any case, it gives Paris a special flavour," she said. According to the French Insurance Association (AFA), damages due to floods could cost insurers at least 600 million euros.--REUTERS

Mashnouq: It is time to state facts without equivocation
Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - Interior and Municipalities Minister, Nuhad Mashnouq, said in a tweet on Saturday that though he does not represent the Future Movement in his recent statement, yet his utterances reflected the Movement's inner thinking."It is time to state facts as they are without any equivocation," Minister Mashnouq said.

Mashnouq Bureau refutes giving statement to NTV
Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - Interior and Municipalities Minister Nuhad Mashnouq's Media Bureau categorically refuted in a statement on Saturday that he has given any televised interview to NTV Station. Minister Mashnouq's Bureau also rebutted information which has been attributed to the Minister in NTV news bulletin this evening.

Lebanese Army carries out raids in Arsal, refugee camps in Wadi Hmayyid
Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - The army is carrying out wide raids in Arsal and Syrian refugee camps located in Wadi Hmayyid, and arrested a number of suspects, NNA reporter said on Saturday.

Union of Lebanese Basket Ball meeting kicks off
Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - The Union of Lebanese Basket Ball, has just kicked off at its Jal ed-deeb headquarter in order to decide on what's best following last night's squabble at the third round between Riyadi (Sporting) and La Sagesse teams. Presiding over a meeting of eight referees out of a total of fifteen has been Walid Nassar; rightly deciding over the squabble provoked by Hikmeh and Riyadi could be undertaken by the available eight ferries, NNA field reporters said.

Scorching temperatures cause fires in Bekaa valley
Sat 04 Jun 2016/NNA - Rising temperatures coupled with fast gusting winds led to the spread of fires across Bekaa valley on Saturday. The areas inflicted by the fire were Taanayel, Barr Elias, Khraybeh and Bidnayel. Wheat fields in Terbel and Ali Nahri sustained a lot of losses. Civil Defence units were able to control the fire and stop it from spreading further.
 

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 04-05/16

International Community Recognizes Difficulties in Relaunching Peace Initiative during Paris Summit
Asharq Al-Awsat/June 04/16/Michel Abu Najm/
Paris-As expected, the international meeting on the Middle East held in Paris did not come up with clear resolutions as it only showed international awareness of the dangers of tension in the Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations. French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault was the most optimistic as he was hopeful for a second summit in Paris during the fall. The importance of a second summit lies in including both the Palestinians and Israelis who weren’t invited to the summit on Friday. The second reason for Ayrault’s optimism is that he hopes the direct Palestinian-Israeli negotiations will resume in the suitable time with the support of France.This optimism was not supported despite everyone realizing the gravity of the situation in the Middle East. Yet, in his opening speech, Ayrault didn’t speak of the second summit or resumption of direct negotiations. Arab diplomatic source said that the 29 attendees stressed on the difficulties of relaunching the peace Initiative without any definite date. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry doesn’t really rely on the meeting, to which he told the press: “We’ll see..We’ll have that meeting but we should know where it’s heading and what will happen.”
Sources reported that Kerry also held many side-meetings. A French diplomatic source told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Kerry should let us work and we know his opinion on the matter: What’s not American, cannot happen.”EU Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini said that international parties should find a solution as the Palestinians and Israelis are unable to do that themselves. Mogherini told reporters: “The policy of settlement expansion and demolitions, violence, and incitement tells us very clearly that the perspective that Oslo opened up is seriously at risk of fading away.” Speaking to the press, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said that the initiative has all the elements needed for a final resolution as he hoped Israel would be wise to seize such an opportunity. When asked by Asharq Al-Awsat whether there were any adjustments done to the Arab Peace Initiative, al-Jubeir said that the initiative doesn’t need any adjusting for being clear the way it is. It is worth mentioning, that for years now Israel has been ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative adopted in 2002 during the Arab Summit in Beirut. Due to political pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently declared there are positive elements but demanded some alterations without specifying them exactly. During an interview with “Yediot Ahronot”, French Prime Minister Manuel Valles urged Arab states to recognize Israel in order to strengthen the peace process in the region.
The closing statement of the initiative referred to the Arab Peace Initiative and stressed on the importance of activating it. The closing statement also spoke of the settlements expansion that can threaten both states. In addition, the statement asked both parties to show willingness to rebuild trust between them. Minister Ayrault stressed that it is important to set an agenda for the negotiations as he promised talks will proceed for the end of year international summit. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry stressed that the international community should commit to its promises in making the Palestinian state a reality. Shoukry stressed the importance of cooperation between Washington, Moscow, and European States with the countries in the region to activate the peace initiative in order to reach a solution. He also said that Egypt is willing to exert every effort to reach a solution, adding that Arabs can vividly remember France’s support for Palestinian rights in a Palestinian state.The Arab League condemned Netanyahu’s statement in the Israeli Knesset that there will be no return to the era before June 1967 in Jerusalem. Netanyahu also asked Kerry to interfere to alleviate the intensity of the statements issued on the margin of Paris’ summit. Netanyahu also called for “Political-Media” talks with the participation of foreign ministers, National Security Council, and National Media Committee.Whereas Director-General of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dore Gold said that the only way to achieve peace is through direct negotiations and with the support of Arab states and not through conventions.


Military Officials: Lebanese and Iranian Missiles Discovered in Yemen
Asharq Al-Awsat/June 04/16/Jeddah-High-ranking Yemeni military officials announced that the National Army discovered a large number of Lebanese and Iranian made missiles in Haif bin Saba’an. After examining the missiles, Commander Staff Maj. Gen. Nasser al-Tahiri revealed that these missiles are not like the European or U.S. missiles, but share some specs. Maj. Gen. al-Tahiri stressed that the National Army has been defending the liberated areas since Houthis started breaking the declared ceasefire. Al-Tahiri also said that the discovered missiles are fired from launchpads and are used by the Lebanese so-called Hezbollah party. Al-Tahiri told Asharq Al-Awsat that the army is advancing on several key axes despite militias’ reinforcements. He explained that these missiles won’t help the militias advance for many reasons, including the weakness of their militants and their low morale. Concerning the situation in the battlefield, al-Tahiri said that it is in the favor of the National Army, which is advancing on al-Farda and Bayhan fronts. He added that all military forces are in their positions blocking any attack. Military sources revealed that the militias lost a large number of their members in Shabwa as they failed to break the siege imposed by the National Army on Houthis. Observers expect the Houthis to raise the oil prices as activist Abdul Hamid al-Khotami said. Al-Khotami added that the lack of oil derivatives in the capital is due to the fact that the Houthis haven’t paid the price of the oil shipment coming to al-Mekla refinery.

Asiri to Asharq Al-Awsat: UN Report is Negative and Contradictory
Asharq Al-Awsat/June 04/16/Brigadier General Ahmad Asiri at a press conference in Riyadh (SPA)Arab coalition forces that support legitimacy in Yemen emphasised that the United Nations report’s inclusion of the coalition on its human rights violation blacklist is negative and will weaken the efforts of the UN envoy for Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh. Brigadier General Ahmed bin Hasan Asiri, a consultant at the Minister of Defence’s Office and spokesman for the coalition forces, explained that the United Nations report which was issued yesterday does not help the consultations that are currently taking place in Kuwait. He added that it contains general statistics that are contrary to the legitimate government’s information. Asiri told Asharq Al-Awsat that “the coalition forces have evidence that the United Nations recognises the legitimacy of the Yemeni government at the same time that it is communicating with the rebels in Sanaa and considers them an official government. This is a big contradiction and therefore the report issued by it is biased. It was written to talk about the violation of children’s rights but it ignores the fact that the rebels employ children to fight on battlefields, plant mines and transport ammunition and food supplies.” Asiri confirmed that Saudi Arabia has apprehended 52 Yemeni children aged between 8 and 15 years old who were involved in fighting on the battlefield, and he refuted the allegations cited by the report. On his part, the Permanent Representative of the kingdom to the United Nations Ambassador Abdullah Al-Mouallimi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the UN blacklist report is a preliminary report and will go through several stages including submission to the Security Council before the final version is published.


At Least 33 Killed in Algeria Bus Crash
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/least 33 people were killed and 22 others injured when a truck collided with a bus which burst into flames in Algeria early on Saturday, authorities said. The accident took place at 2:50 am (0150 GMT) near the city of Aflou, 400 kilometres (248 miles) south of the capital Algiers, the APS news agency said quoting the civil defence. The bus slammed into a rocky embankment after the collision and caught fire, with most of the passengers who were asleep at the time burning to death, it said. Road accidents kill at least 4,000 people each year in Algeria.

 

Algeria Accuses Two Countries of Conspiring to Undermine its Stability
Asharq Al-Awsat/June 04/16/The Director of the Republic’s Presidential Cabinet Ahmed Ouyahia criticises secessionist strife in Al-Qabael and Al-Mizab. A senior Algerian official yesterday accused two countries which he refused to name of conspiring “to destabilise” Algeria because of “its fixed stance on the Sahara issue and its defence of its sovereignty”. During a meeting for members of the National Rally for Democracy (RND) that was held in the capital yesterday, the Minister of State and Director of the Republic’s Presidential Cabinet Ahmed Ouyahia who leads the party said that “Two countries are conspiring against Algeria – one of those countries does not accept the idea of an independent Algeria (free from colonialism) and the other is malicious to Algeria because of its position on the fate of the Saharawi people”. He also pointed out that the two countries “are dependent on political mercenaries within Algeria who are demanding the secession of Al-Qabael (east of the capital) and Al-Mizab (southern Algeria), and we have to address this scheme”. Ouyahia refused to respond to reporters’ questions regarding the two countries which he alluded to in his speech. On the other hand, Ouyahia said that “the greatest challenge currently faced by Algeria is the rapid decline in oil prices, but fortunately, the measures taken by the President of the Republic Abdelaziz Bouteflika during the past 10 years averted it collapse”. Ouyahia was referring to the president’s decision to pay off foreign debt early in 2005. He also said that the country should not resort to external borrowing again.

Saudi Ambassador to Iraq: Iranians Heave Sectarian Strife in Fallujah
Asharq Al-Awsat/June 04/16/London- Saudi ambassador to Iraq Thamer Sabhan explained that the Iranian presence near Fallujah is only to heave further strife among the already tense animosity between Iraqi people. Sectarian divide in Iraq had been feeding into the country’s public strain. Sabhan, in a phone interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, said that the Iraqi army and local police hold the capacity sufficient enough fulfill the missioned ISIS determent in Fallujah. All political figureheads in Iraq confirmed that Iraqi forces are able to terminate all threats of terrorism in Iraq, he added. As for the Kingdom’s dispositions, Sabhan said that Saudi Arabia wishes to aid and unite all Iraqis against the threat of sectarian divide, which if rendered worse would reflect against the whole region. He said that Saudi Arabia has full trust that the voice of reason and wisdom found in its leadership would be welcomed among all brothers in Iraq. “Iraq was and still is an Arab country, it will not be acceptable for it to be taken away from its environment and people – the same thing is reiterated by the people in Iraq discounting their background,” said Sabhan. “Iraq, since 2003, had been the subject of Iranian direct and indirect interference,” “The goal is to avenge against Iraq and Arabs,” Sabhan added referring to Iranian aims. The Saudi ambassador added that Tehran had impelled its forces to find and spur sectarian conflict, employing all means to further ignite bigoted strife.
“It is regrettable to see that the people of Iraq are the ones to pay the price of such lethal policies; if Iraqi blood was spilt it would be for no reason or possible end, because no one could eliminate or demote the other. Iraq is everybody’s land, and we cannot overlook the present Iranian spite and quest for revenge on Iraq for the previous war it waged against Iran,” Sabhan added. Sabhan also warned the aftermath of undertone accusations being cast recklessly, he said that ISIS and al-Qaeda do not belong to a sect or religion; they are considered Khawarij, outsiders. He said that official Saudi fatwas concerning the subject are present to prove that terrorist organizations are redeemed outsiders by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and are not considered a part of Islam entirely. “They go against humanitarian rights and are antilife organizations, which are being fought by everyone, especially Saudi Arabia,” he added. Moreover, the Saudi Ambassador tweeted on Friday that Iranian terrorists located near Fallujah serves as evidence to Iran’s plans for flaming Iraqi society through sparking sectarian spite, which also confirms their demographic inclinations.

Syrian troops reach edge of province where ISIS is based
The Associated Press, Beirut Saturday, 4 June 2016/Syrian troops have reached the edge of the northern province of Raqqa, home to the de facto capital of the ISIS group’s self-styled caliphate. The government has had no presence in Raqqa since August 2014, when ISIS captured the Tabqa air base and killed scores of captured government .The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says Syrian troops reached the “administrative border” of Raqqa province under the cover of Russian airstrikes. The media arm of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, which is fighting alongside government forces, says Syrian troops reached the border of Raqqa province Saturday after advancing about six kilometers (4 miles) in the past hours.Syrian troops launched an offensive toward the province on Wednesday. ISIS is based in the provincial capital, also called Raqqa.

Iraq forces gain ground from ISIS west of Fallujah
By AFP Near Fallujah, Iraq Saturday, 4 June 2016/Iraqi forces gained new ground from ISIS Saturday in a key area west of the militant bastion of Fallujah, security sources said. Fighters from the army, the police and from the Hashed al-Shaabi - a paramilitary organization dominated by Tehran-backed Shiite militias - entered the center of Saqlawiya. The town lies around 10 kilometers (six miles) northwest of Fallujah and control of the rural area around it is key to cutting off the city which Iraqi forces are trying to retake. “The Iraqi army’s 14th division and Hashed al-Shaabi stormed the center of Saqlawiya town from the highway and raised the Iraqi flag,” a statement from the Joint Operations Command said. Federal police moving from a different direction were also involved in the operation to retake Saqlawiya. As elite forces are trying to push into the center of Fallujah, other forces have continued to clear areas around the city to ensure it is completely isolated. The operation in Saqlawiya is aimed at cutting off Fallujah from Jazirat al-Khaldiyah, an area to the west which ISIS has been passing through to reach its positions elsewhere.The Joint Operations Command said a US-led coalition air strike had hit a boatload of ISIS fighters attempting to flee Fallujah along the Euphrates river, killing all on board. Fallujah lies just 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of Baghdad and is one of ISIS’s most emblematic bastions. Iraqi forces launched a major offensive to retake the city on May 22-23.

Iraq Forces Gain Ground from IS West of Fallujah
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/Iraqi forces gained new ground from the Islamic State group Saturday in a key area west of the jihadist bastion of Fallujah, security sources said. Fighters from the army, the police and from the Hashed al-Shaabi -- a paramilitary organisation dominated by Tehran-backed Shiite militias -- entered the center of Saqlawiya. The town lies around 10 kilometers (six miles) northwest of Fallujah and control of the rural area around it is key to cutting off the city which Iraqi forces are trying to retake. "The Iraqi army's 14th division and Hashed al-Shaabi stormed the center of Saqlawiya town from the highway and raised the Iraqi flag," a statement from the Joint Operations Command said. Federal police moving from a different direction were also involved in the operation to retake Saqlawiya. As elite forces are trying to push into the center of Fallujah, other forces have continued to clear areas around the city to ensure it is completely isolated. The operation in Saqlawiya is aimed at cutting off Fallujah from Jazirat al-Khaldiyah, an area to the west which IS has been passing through to reach its positions elsewhere. The Joint Operations Command said a US-led coalition air strike had hit a boatload of IS fighters attempting to flee Fallujah along the Euphrates river, killing all on board. Fallujah lies just 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of Baghdad and is one of IS's most emblematic bastions. Iraqi forces launched a major offensive to retake the city on May 22-23.

Syria Army Thrusts into IS Bastion as Kurds Advance from North
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/Russian-backed Syrian troops pushed into the Islamic State group's bastion province Raqa Saturday, threatening to catch the jihadists in a pincer movement as US-backed Kurdish-led fighters advance from the north. The lightning advance from the southwest with Russian air support brought the army to within 40 kilometers (25 miles) of the Euphrates Valley town of Tabqa, site of the country's biggest dam, the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights said. The dam, 40 kilometers (25 miles) upstream from the jihadists' de facto Syrian capital Raqa city, is also the target of the Washington-backed offensive which Kurdish-led fighters launched late last month.It was the first time that government troops had entered Raqa province since they were ousted by IS fighters in August 2014. Regular army troops were backed by militia newly trained by the regime's ally Russia, Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman told Agence France Presse. He said that the twin offensives which threaten to cut off IS-held Raqa from jihadist-held territory along the Turkish border raised suspicions that Moscow and Washington were covertly coordinating operations by their respective Syrian allies.
"It seems there has been an undeclared coordination between Washington and Moscow," he said.At least 26 jihadists and nine government troops and militia were killed in the army's advance, according to the Britain-based Observatory, which relies on reports from medics and activists on the ground. Tabqa dam has a huge reservoir named Lake Assad after President Bashar Assad's late father and predecessor Hafez. When IS overran the area with its garrison and airbase in 2014, it summarily executed 160 captured regime troops. - IS under multiple attack -The jihadists are facing counter-attacks on multiple fronts.
Arab and Kurdish fighters backed by Washington have launched an assault on the strategic Manbij pocket further up the Euphrates on the Turkish border, regarded as a key entry point for foreign jihadists. Hundreds of kilometers (miles) downstream in neighboring Iraq, elite Iraq troops have launched an assault on the emblematic IS bastion of Washington has deployed more than 200 special forces troops in support of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which it regards as the most effective fighting force on the ground against IS in Syria. The SDF controls a large swathe of northeastern Syria along the Turkish border and another border enclave in the northwest. The SDF's offensive against the Manbij pocket is aimed at seizing the last stretch of border still under IS control and denying the jihadists any opportunity to smuggle in recruits and funds. The US military said the assault had captured more than 100 square kilometers (40 square miles) of territory from IS this week.
IS has hit back with an offensive against two towns held by non-jihadist rebels further west in a bid to enlarge the territory it holds on the border. Washington has dropped ammunition to the rebels defending the town of Marea in a bid to stop jihadists overrunning it, a US official confirmed. The supply lines from neighboring Turkey have made the northern border region one of the most contested battlegrounds of Syria's five-year-civil war. The region is now controlled by a myriad of rival armed groups, although IS and the SDF have put other rebel groups on the back foot. Washington's support for the SDF has strained relations with NATO ally Ankara as its largest component is the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). Ankara regards the YPG as an arm of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has fought a three-decade insurgency against the Turkish state. To allay Turkish concerns, Washington has sought to boost the Arab element in the SDF particularly as it advances into non-Kurdish areas. The increasingly complex front lines have left hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped by fighting or living under siege. Damascus said on Friday that it was ready to allow desperately needed relief convoys into 12 besieged areas but the United Nations said it was preparing to seek the government's permission to organize air

Paris Floods Stabilise as Seine Starts to Recede
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/The rain-swollen River Seine in Paris receded Saturday for the first time in a week after nearing its highest level in three decades, triggering a scramble to save artworks in riverside museums. The Seine stood at 6.06 meters (just under 20 feet) above normal levels at 8:00am (0400 GMT), down from a high of 6.10 meters overnight, the environment ministry's Vigicrues flood watch website said. The level was the same as that recorded on Friday afternoon, when the river rose to levels last seen in 1982, prompting emergency measures. The famed Louvre and Orsay museums shut their doors in a race to move art treasures from their basements, some metro stations were closed and Parisians were advised to stay away from the Seine. But by Saturday, as authorities were counting the cost of over a week of flooding in central and northern France, the specter of devastating floods in the city had begun to ebb. "We're now in the stabilization phase, even if we could still get one or two centimeters more," said Bruno Janet, head of modelling at Vigicrues. The environment ministry on Friday forecast that the Seine would remain high throughout the weekend -- but still far off a 1910 record of 8.62 meters -- before starting to subside. Across Europe, at least 17 people have been killed in floods that have trapped people in their homes and forced rescuers to row lifeboats down streets turned into rivers. - Metro stations sandbagged -The City of Paris said it had opened two gyms to provide shelter for the homeless. On Saturday, pieces of driftwood, plastic bags and other flotsam swirled in the muddy waters which had inundated the city's famous tree-lined riverside walkways, a popular haunt of strolling couples.
Firefighters warned people to keep away from dangerous parts of the river, but crowds gathered undeterred on Pont Neuf and other iconic bridges to snap pictures of the fast-flowing waters. "It is a reminder that nature is more powerful than man and we cannot do anything, only wait," said Gabriel Riboulet, a 26-year-old entrepreneur, as he took in the scene. A small number of basement flats in the capital were flooded on Friday and a campsite in the Bois de Boulogne forest in the west of the capital was cleared but there was no order yet for any Parisians to evacuate. Several metro stations were closed and workers piled sandbags on platforms to hold back the water. Boat traffic has been suspended in the capital, as has a regional train line that runs along the Seine. - 'Catastrophic' damage -French President Francois Hollande said a state of "natural catastrophe" would be declared when the cabinet meets next Wednesday, a necessary step to trigger compensation payments. Losses across France could reach more than 600 million euros ($680 million), said Bernard Spitz of France's association of insurers. The head of national railways operator SNCF said the rail network had suffered "catastrophic" damage which would run to tens of millions of euros. Persistently heavy rainfall across western and central Europe has swollen rivers and claimed victims from at least four countries.
Eleven people have been killed in the German states of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, and two in Romania, while a beekeeper died in Belgium while trying to save his hives. In France, a man on horseback drowned on Thursday after being swept away by a swollen river in Evry-Gregy-sur-Yerres, southeast of Paris. At Montargis in the north-central Loiret region, police also said they had found the body of a woman in her sixties who had apparently drowned. Environment Minister Segolene Royal said she feared more bodies would be found as waters receded in villages in central France, some of which have suffered their worst floods in a century. More than 20,000 people have been evacuated since the weekend and around 18,000 homes are without power. - 38,000 artworks at risk -On opposite banks of the river, the Louvre and Orsay museums, which receive a combined total of 12.5 million visitors a year, closed their doors Friday so that artworks could be moved to higher floors. Hollande paid a visit Friday to the Louvre, where dozens of volunteers were working to move some of the 38,000 artworks thought to be at risk to higher floors. The museum said it would remain closed until Wednesday, while the Orsay, which houses a world-renowned collection of 19th and early 20th century art, said it would reopen Tuesday. The Grand Palais exhibition center also shut Friday, as did two of the National Library's sites. Eva Palomares, a holidaymaker from the Italian city of Milan, said she was disappointed to be unable to visit the Louvre but added: "The star today is the Seine. You have to feel its angry rumble."The downpours have added to the gloom in France, where public morale has been hit by months of protests and strikes over a labor reform bill which were still gripping the country less than a week before it begins hosting the Euro 2016 football championships.

U.S. Vows 'Action' if China Builds New S. China Sea Structures
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/Chinese construction on a South China Sea islet claimed by the Philippines would prompt "actions being taken" by the United States and other nations, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter warned Saturday. Speaking at a security summit in Singapore, Carter said Beijing risks building a "Great Wall of self-isolation" with its military expansion in the contested waters, but he also proposed stronger bilateral security cooperation to reduce the risks of a mishap. "I hope that this development doesn't occur because it will result in actions being taken both by the United States, and actions being taken by others in the region that will have the effect of not only increasing tensions but isolating China," Carter said when asked about Scarborough Shoal in a forum also attended by senior Chinese military officials. Rear Admiral Guan Youfei, who heads the Chinese office of international military cooperation, quickly attacked the Pentagon chief's remarks, telling journalists they reflected a "Cold War mentality".Hong Kong's South China Morning Post has reported that China plans to establish an outpost on the shoal, located 230 kilometres (140 miles) off the Philippines, which considers it part of its exclusive economic zone. Beijing claims nearly all of the strategically vital sea and has developed contested reefs into artificial islands, some topped with airstrips. Manila says China took effective control of Scarborough Shoal in 2012, stationing patrol vessels and shooing away Filipino fishermen, after a two-month stand-off with the Philippine Navy. Carter declined to elaborate when later pressed on what "actions" Washington might take. The US warning came ahead of a ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague on a case brought by the Philippines against China, which has shunned the proceedings and says it will not recognise any ruling. In a prepared speech, Carter said the United States views the upcoming finding "as an opportunity for China and the rest of the region to recommit to a principled future, to renewed diplomacy, and to lowering tensions, rather than raising them". - 'Great Wall of self-isolation' -The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam have competing claims in the sea, which encompasses vital global shipping routes and is believed to have significant oil and gas deposits. Beijing's territorial claims, based on controversial historical records, have also pitted it against the United States, which has conducted patrols near Chinese-held islands to press for freedom of navigation. "Unfortunately, if these actions continue, China could end up erecting a Great Wall of self-isolation," Carter said in his speech. He suggested the United States and China would benefit from better military ties -- both to build understanding and to avoid the risk of mishaps. Pentagon officials say two Chinese fighters last month conducted an "unsafe" intercept of a US spy plane in international air space over the South China Sea. Admiral Harry Harris, the commander of the US Pacific Command, said in Singapore that such incidents were rare, and noted that US and Chinese naval vessels generally have "positive interactions."Carter's attendance at the summit is part of a broader US diplomatic push, known as the "rebalance", to boost alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. In a report last month, the Pentagon said China put its land reclamation efforts on hold in the Spratly Islands chain at the end of 2015. Instead, it focused on adding military infrastructure to its reclaimed features.Another regional security concern at the Singapore forum is North Korea's nuclear program and its so-far unsuccessful missile tests. Seoul and Washington want to deploy the United States' sophisticated Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System (THAAD), that would protect against North Korean missiles, though Beijing worries about the system being deployed on its doorstep. "It's not about China," Carter said. "It's about the North Korean missile threat, which is a clear threat to South Korea, to our forces there and to our allies in Japan."

US Now Hitting Islamic State Targets from Mediterranean Sea
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/The U.S. Navy's top admiral says the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman has begun launching airstrikes against the Islamic State group from the Mediterranean Sea. That opens a new direction of attack against the militants in Iraq and Syria. Adm. John Richardson said in an Associated Press interview Saturday that this unusual arrangement is a demonstration of the flexibility of naval power. The Navy for years positioned its carriers in the Persian Gulf to conduct airstrikes against targets in the Middle East. The Truman had been in the Gulf but in recent days moved into the eastern Mediterranean and resumed air operations. The Truman eventually will return to its home port at Norfolk, Virginia, and be replaced in the Gulf by the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D.

U.N. Seeks Assurances from Libya over Arms Purchases
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/The UN Security Council is seeking assurances from Libya's unity government that new weapons will not fall into the wrong hands before it can authorize the purchases, diplomats said Friday. Britain, Egypt, Italy, the United States and Russia were among 25 countries that agreed at a meeting last month to help the government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj arm itself to confront the Islamic State group. The countries agreed to support a request to a UN sanctions committee for an exemption to the arms embargo on Libya to allow Sarraj's government to make the purchases.
The UN-backed government however has yet to present its request to the committee, a senior Security Council diplomat said. "The Libyan Government of National Accord will need to provide reassurance when making requests to the UN sanctions committee that there is no risk of arms exports being diverted to terrorist groups," said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue. "It will take time for the GNA to put in place the necessary measures, such as secure storage facilities. The request may therefore still take some time to issue."Another diplomat cited concerns about the command structure of the various militias now supporting the Sarraj government and said there was a need to clarify who will be receiving the weapons. The Tripoli-based unity government, formed under a December power-sharing deal agreed to by some lawmakers from both sides, has announced the formation of a new military command to take charge of the battle against IS. Libya was left with two rival administrations after a militia alliance took over Tripoli in mid-2014, setting up its own authority and forcing the elected parliament to flee to Tobruk in the country's far east. A UN arms embargo imposed in 2011 during the uprising against Moamer Kadhafi remains in force.
 

Bahrain Jailbreak Sparks Manhunt
Agence France Presse/Naharnet /June 04/16/Bahraini security forces launched a manhunt on Saturday after a reported 20 prisoners broke out of a jail on the island of Muharraq, site of the Gulf state's main airport. There was no immediate word on whether the prisoners were common criminals or political activists jailed in a sweeping five-year-old crackdown on dissent among the kingdom's Shiite majority. The interior ministry said police had recaptured some of the fugitives but gave no details on how many remained at large. It said the breakout happened at the Al-Hadd detention centre near the Muharraq dry dock on Saturday evening. Bahrain's Akhbar Al-Khaleej newspaper said around 20 prisoners had escaped. "They managed to seize a bus and get away after assaulting warders and police and wounding several of them," the paper said. Police set up roadblocks on the causeways linking Muharraq to Bahrain's main island, where the capital Manama is located, the paper added. The tiny but strategic Gulf state has been shaken by unrest since its Sunni minority rulers crushed a month-long, Shiite-led uprising demanding reforms in 2011. Despite the crackdown, protesters still frequently clash with police in Shiite villages outside the capital Manama. The kingdom, which is connected to Saudi Arabia by a causeway, lies across the Gulf from Shiite Iran and is home to the US Fifth Fleet.

 

Iran: Seventh anniversary of the martyrdom of Kianoush Asa
Saturday, 04 June 2016/NCRI - Students at the Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran this week held a ceremony commemorating the anniversary of the martyrdom of Kianoush Asa, a student who was killed by the mullahs’ regime in the course of the 2009 uprising.
According to reports from Iran, on the seventh anniversary of the martyrdom of Kianoush Asa, a graduate at the University of Science and Technology, his family and the students of this university on May 30 gathered in Asa Park, which is named in memory of Kianoush, and revived his memory by lighting candles and distributing flowers and brochures. They reiterated that they would continue his path. Born in March 20, 1985, Kianoush Asa was shot and wounded after the regime’s paramilitary Basij forces opened fire on people during the uprising and demonstration in Azadi Square in Tehran on June 15, 2009. He was transferred to a hospital in Tehran but criminal agents of the mullahs’ regime kidnapped him and several others who were wounded in the uprising and transferred them to an unknown location. On June 24, 2009, the authorities informed Kianoush’s family that their son had died. Following the regime’s sham election in 2009, Iranian people staged a nationwide uprising against the mullahs' regime, lasting more than eight months, during which several people including youths like Kianoush Asa and Neda Agha Soltan were killed either on the streets or in prison. Thousands of others were arrested. Some protesters including Amir Javadi Far and Mohammad Kamrani were killed under torture by the regime’s henchmen in the prisons and some others including Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaii and Jafar Kazemi, both activists of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI or MEK), were executed by the mullahs’ regime.

Two arrested for publishing caricatures of Iranian regime officials
Saturday, 04 June 2016/NCRI - The Iranian regime’s Cyber Police (FATA) in Fars province, southern Iran, have arrested two young Iranians for publishing cartoons of the regime officials, state media reported. The state-run Jam News website on June 1 reported that the repressive Cyber Police in the city of Fasa in recent days arrested two people, aged 30 and 31, for publishing cartoons of the regime officials in the cyberspace. This site quoted Ali Sheybanian, Fasa’s police chief, as saying, “These two individuals intended to disturb public opinion and sow discord among the population by publishing caricatures of the authorities and offensive texts in cyberspace.”Last week a police commander of the regime in Isfahan, central Iran, announced that the Cyber Police (FATA) had arrested a 15-year-old boy who had aimed to launch a channel in virtual social networks. Jahangir Karimi announced: "After the final investigation, the 15-year-old teenager from Isfahan was identified quickly and summoned to the police."Karimi’s remarks were reported on May 26 by the website of the official state broadcaster IRIB. The Iranian regime’s Cyber Police (FATA) are responsible for monitoring cyber activities. Their most notorious case was that of blogger Sattar Beheshti who was killed under torture while in the regime's custody in November 2012. Last month, the regime’s repressive Cyber Police announced that they had arrested two young webloggers in Rasht and Roudbar, northern Iran, charging them with “computer crimes.”The head of the FATA police in Gilan Province, Colonel Iraj Mohammadkhani, announced the arrests on May 3, adding that "[illegal] production, distribution and access to any data, software or any type of electronic devices are regarded as computer crimes and anyone committing such acts will be sentenced from 91 days to one year of imprisonment, or will have to pay a fine of five million to 20 million Rials (U.S. $166 to $662), or both."As recently as March 2016, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said Iran is still one of the world’s five biggest prisons for media personnel and is ranked 173rd out of 180 countries in the 2015 Reporters Without Borders press freedom index. Shahin Gobadi of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) last month said: "Freedom of the press and freedom of expression are non-existent in Iran under the mullahs' regime. Not only does the regime severely clamp down on journalists for reporting on subjects considered sensitive by the mullahs, it even goes so far as arresting and torturing to death dissident bloggers such as Sattar Beheshti.”“The regime's draconian measures against news organizations have become more aggressive since Hassan Rouhani took office as President in 2013. Several international human rights organizations have attested to this reality," Mr. Gobadi added. Iran's fundamentalist regime this week announced that it had set a one-year deadline for international social media, in particular Telegram, to hand over data on their Iranian users. The official state news agency IRNA reported on Sunday that the decision was taken on Saturday, May 28, at a session of the Supreme Council of Cyberspace, a committee on the use of cyberspace headed by the mullahs' President Hassan Rouhani that serves as the regime's IT regulator.

Another 70 people arrested in Iran for attending mixed-gender party in restaurant
Saturday, 04 June 2016/National Council of Resistance of Iran
NCRI - The mullahs' regime on Thursday arrested more than 70 young men and women for taking part in a mixed-gender party at a restaurant in Tehran, the Iranian regime's state media reported on Friday. The youths were arrested by the regime's police during a raid on a restaurant in the Iranian capital’s northern Farahzad district, the state-run ILNA news agency reported. Earlier this week, the Iranian regime's suppressive state security forces (police) in Bandar Abbas, southern Iran, raided a mixed-gender party, arresting 62 people and transferring them to prison, according to state media. The state-run Shahrvand daily wrote on June 2 that 23 men and 39 women, who were caught dancing and partying, were arrested in the raid which was carried out on Sunday, May 29. Similar raids have been carried out in Iran in recent days.More than two dozen young Iranian men and women were arrested last weekend by the mullahs' regime for participating in a mixed-gender party in Mashhad, north-east Iran. The 29 youngsters were rounded up by the regime's police at a party on the evening of May 28 at a villa near the Danesh Junction in Mashhad. The state-run Rokna news agency reported that altogether 15 young men and 14 young women were arrested at the party and were taken to the regime's court in District 6 of Mashhad on Sunday to face prosecution. Some 35 young men and women were flogged last week for taking part in a mixed-gender party after their graduation ceremony near Qazvin, some 140 kilometers northwest of the Iranian capital Tehran, the regime's Prosecutor in the city said on May 26.Ismaeil Sadeqi Niaraki, a notorious mullah, said a special court session was held after all the young men and women at the party were rounded up, the Mizan news agency, affiliated to the fundamentalist regime's judiciary, reported on May 26. "After we received information that a large number of men and women were mingling in a villa in the suburbs of Qazvin ... all the participants at the party were arrested," he said. Niaraki added that the following morning every one of those detained received 99 lashes as punishment by the so-called 'Morality Police.'According to Niaraki, given the social significance of mixed-gender partying, "this once again required a firm response by the judiciary in quickly reviewing and implementing the law." "Thanks God that the police questioning, investigation, court hearing, verdict and implementation of the punishment all took place in less than 24 hours," Niaraki added. The regime’s prosecutor claimed that the judiciary would not tolerate the actions of “law-breakers who use excuses such as freedom and having fun in birthday parties and graduation ceremonies.”He warned the youths that they should be careful about their conduct “since being arrested in mixed-gender parties and receiving sentences is a crime and would create problems for their future education and employment.”Last month, the Iranian regime’s paramilitary Basij in north-eastern Iran broke up two mixed-gender parties within 72 hours, detaining 70 people. The head of the fundamentalist Basij in Nishapur precinct, Ali-Akbar Hosseini, announced that his forces were alerted to a so-called “obscene party” in the city. During the raid, 14 boys and 14 girls were arrested and transferred to a local police station. A second party was raided on May 20, leading to the arrest of over 40 participants, Hosseini told the state-run Fars news agency on May 21.

German genocide resolution ‘has no value’: Erdogan
By AFP Istanbul Saturday, 4 June 2016/The German parliament resolution recognizing as genocide the massacres of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire has “no value” and won’t change Turkey’s position on the matter, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Saturday. Erdogan said he wondered how German officials could look Turkey’s leaders in the face after Thursday’s vote in the Bundestag, which prompted Ankara to withdraw its ambassador and warn of further consequences. But he said it was “too early” to talk of economic measures against Germany. And he said the dispute with Berlin should not be a factor in Turkey’s wider relationship with the European Union, acknowledging it would also do Turkey no good “to act with hate”. “The decision taken by the German parliament has no value whatsoever,” Erdogan said in comments to Turkish newspapers including the Hurriyet daily while on a trip to Africa. “Our position on 1915 is well known... and this kind of decision is not going to change what we think about our history. But they also overlook the fact they face the risk of losing a friend like Turkey.” Armenians say some 1.5 million of their people were killed in a genocidal campaign by Ottoman forces to wipe them from Anatolia, but Turkey has long refused to recognize the killings as genocide.He expressed disappointment over conduct of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who stayed away from the debate, saying he wished she had taken part “and cast her vote”.“Now I wonder how, after such a decision, German officials will at look me personally and our Prime Minister (Binali Yildirim) in the face,” Erdogan said.

Pope approves measures to oust bishops who botch abuse cases
The Associated Press, Vatican City Saturday, 4 June 2016/Pope Francis on Saturday scrapped his proposed tribunal to prosecute bishops who failed to protect their flocks from pedophile priests and instead established new legal procedures to remove them if the Vatican finds they were negligent. With the new law, Francis sought to answer long-running demands by survivors of abuse and their advocates to hold bishops accountable when they botched handling abuse cases. Victims have long accused bishops of covering up for abuse, moving rapists from parish to parish rather than reporting them to police. In the law, Francis acknowledged that the church’s canonical code already allowed for a bishop to be removed for “grave reasons.” But he said he wanted to precisely state that negligence, especially negligence in handling abuse cases, counts as one of those reasons that can cost a bishop his job. Bishops “must undertake a particular diligence in protecting those who are the weakest among their flock,” Francis wrote in the law, called a motu proprio. The statute effectively does away with a proposal approved by Francis last year to establish an accountability tribunal inside the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith to hear negligence cases. Francis’ sex abuse advisory board had recommended that the Congregation prosecute negligent bishops because it is already responsible for overseeing actual sex abuse cases against clergy. But that proposal posed a host of legal and bureaucratic issues that put into question the existing command and control structure of the Catholic Church hierarchy. In the end, Francis decided to streamline the procedure and task the four Vatican offices that are already in charge of handling bishop issues to investigate and punish negligence cases. As a result, the new procedures don’t amount to any revolution in bishop accountability since those four offices already had the authority and duty to sanction bishops for wrongdoing. The law, though, specifically states that negligence in handling abuse cases is cause for dismissal. Victims groups expressed doubt that the new procedures would result in any wave of firing bishops. The main U.S. victims’ group, SNAP, said it was “extraordinarily skeptical” about the new procedures since popes have always had the power to oust complicit bishops but haven’t wielded it. “A ‘process’ is helpful only if it’s used often enough to deter wrongdoing. We doubt this one will be,” SNAP’s David Clohessy said. In the law, Francis said a bishop can be removed if his actions or omissions cause “grave harm,” either physical, moral, spiritual or financial, to individuals or communities. The bishop himself doesn’t need to be morally guilty: It’s enough if he is purely lacking in the diligence required of his office. When the cases concern abuse, it’s enough that the negligence is “serious,” the law says. The procedures call for the Vatican to start an investigation when “serious evidence” is provided that a bishop was negligent. The bishop will be informed and allowed to defend himself. At the end of the investigation, the Vatican can prepare a decree removing the bishop or ask him to resign within 15 days. If he doesn’t, the Vatican can go ahead with issuing a resignation decree. Any decision to remove the bishop must first be approved by the pope, who will be assisted by a group of legal advisers, the law says.The four offices that are now tasked with handling negligence investigations are the congregations that oversee diocesan bishops, bishops in mission territories, bishops who belong to Eastern rite churches and bishops who are members of religious orders. Even before the new procedures were announced, two U.S. bishops who bungled abuse cases resigned on their own: Bishop Robert Finn in Kansas City-St. Joseph, Missouri, and Archbishop John Nienstedt in St. Paul and Minneapolis. They were presumably pressured by the Vatican to step down after civil authorities got involved. Canon lawyers, though, have said such arm-twisting resignations do little to “repair scandal and restore justice,” which the Church’s penal law system is supposed to accomplish.

Boko Haram attack in southeastern Niger kills 32 soldiers
Reuters, Niamey Saturday, 4 June 2016/Thirty soldiers from Niger and two from Nigeria were killed in a Boko Haram attack by “hundreds of assailants” on Friday on the southeastern town of Bosso close to the border with Nigeria, the Niger defence ministry said on Saturday. “The counter-offensive conducted early this morning helped to retake control of all the positions in the city of Bosso. The situation is under control”, the ministry added. “A sweep is ongoing in the area with the mobilisation of all land and air means”. Seven others from Niger and eight from Nigeria were injured in the attack, according to the ministry, which reported “several deaths” among the assailants. Bosso is part of the Diffa region, which is home to many refugees and internally displaced people who have sought to avoid Boko Haram violence elsewhere. The region has been targeted numerous times in attacks blamed on the militants. Six people were killed last month in the village of Yebi, 4 km (2.5 miles) from Bosso, in an attack thought to have been carried out by Boko Haram. The group, headquartered across the border in northeastern Nigeria, wants to create an emirate and impose a strict interpretation of Islamic law.

Greatest of all time’ Muhammad Ali dies aged 74
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Saturday, 4 June 2016/World renowned heavyweight boxing champion Muhammad Ali has passed away on Friday at the age of 74, leaving behind a legacy filled with trophies, knock-outs and controversial stands, making him out of the most well-known athletes of the 20th century. Ali, who was diagnosed with Parkinson’s syndrome, was rushed to the hospital after a respiratory ailment earlier this week. A family spokesman confirmed his death at a Phoenix-area hospital. “After a 32-year battle with Parkinson’s disease, Muhammad Ali has passed away at the age of 74,” spokesman Bob Gunnell said. His Parkinson’s, thought to be linked to the thousands of punches he took during a career studded by bruising battles inside the ropes, had limited his public speaking. Many athletes, celebrities and fans rushed to social media to praise the record-breaking boxer, and share their condolences. “My heart is deeply saddened yet both appreciative and relieved that the greatest is now resting in the greatest place,” boxer Roy Jones Jr. said on Twitter. Longtime boxing promoter Bob Arum said, “Muhammad Ali transformed this country and impacted the world with his spirit…his legacy will be part of our history for all time.”“He is, without a question in my mind, the most transformative person of our time,” Arum said. Ali was born Cassius Marcellus Clay Jr in Louisville, Kentucky, in 1942, and then changed his name after he converted to Islam. The self-proclaimed “greatest” hit his peak during the 1960s, using his quick feet and jabs to win 56 out of 61 boxing matches. The famous Ali quote “float like a butterfly, sting like a bee” has long been used in pop culture around the world, in reference to the boxer.Ali has nine children with his wife, Lonnie Williams, whom he had known since he was a child in Louisville.
(With Reuters and AFP)
 

Canada/Statement by ministers Dion and Bibeau on President Obama’s Leaders’ Summit on Refugees
June 4, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Marie-Claude Bibeau, Minister of International Development and La Francophonie, today issued the following statement regarding Canada’s co-hosting of U.S. President Barack Obama’s Leaders’ Summit on Refugees on September 20, 2016:
“We are pleased to announce that Canada will co-host this summit with the United States, along with Ethiopia, Germany, Jordan, Mexico, Sweden and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
“Canada is deeply concerned by the global refugee crisis, and we are committed to promoting shared responsibility and to encouraging greater international solidarity in the face of this crisis. This summit is an opportunity for Canada to continue to lead by example. We will make concrete commitments to strengthen the protection and assistance given to refugees, and we will emphasize our shared humanity in order to shift the global narrative on displaced peoples.
“We are fully prepared to work with the UN Secretary-General and the governments of the United States and other co-hosting countries to advance these goals.”
 

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 04-05/16

Could the defeat of ISIS turn to Pyrrhic victory?
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/Jube 04/16
The recent military setbacks suffered by ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and the beginning of attacks by local forces to retake Fallujah, Iraq and Manbij City, Syria, backed by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, coupled with the steep decline in the number of foreign fighters flowing to Join ISIS, portends the eventual defeat of the Caliphate as a significant military threat maybe as early as 2017. But given the trajectory of the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts in recent years, the corrosive role of most outside powers, and the frightening human toll of identity politics, the defeat of the monstrous Caliphate could turn to a resounding pyrrhic victory.
Since the Second World War, the United States has had a poor record in translating its military victories into political successes. It is very likely that the two longest wars in American history will end with political forces that are either hostile or unfriendly to the United States controlling both Afghanistan and Iraq. The real challenge for the U.S. in Afghanistan, Iraq and in Syria was never military in nature, but rather political. After the eventual military defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria the perennial question of “what’s next politically?” will be asked just as it was asked after the liberation of Afghanistan from Soviet occupation in 1989, the defeat of Iraqi forces in Kuwait in 1991, and after the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq in 2011.
The victory of identity politics
Ironically, the defeat of ISIS, a positive development in and of itself, in the absence of acceptable political scaffoldings to begin healing these societies, could presage the victory of foreign powers like Iran and Russia, a genocidal regime in Damascus and a sectarian corrupt regime in Baghdad both of which are beholding to Tehran. More importantly in the long run, the defeat of ISIS if it is not accompanied or followed by the eventual demise of the Assad regime in the context of an overall political resolution that guarantees the civil and political rights of all Syrian communities, and in checking Iran’s destructive influence in Iraq, will result in the overwhelming victory of “identity politics”.
The fights for Fallujah and Manbij City are raising serious fears not only of massive civilian casualties, but of deepening sectarian and ethnic cleavages leading to more death by identity and the creation of more refugees. The United States is currently providing air power to support the Iraqi government forces attacking ISIS forces in Fallujah, but these conventional forces are augmented by Shiite militias backed and trained by Iran and led by Iraqis who are very loyal to Iran. These largely Shiite militias make up the so-called Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Hashd al-Sha’bi),were created in response to ISIS’ occupation of Mosul in June 2014. These militias engaged in widespread abuse in Sunni cities liberated from ISIS in recent months. The fights for Fallujah and Manbij City are raising serious fears not only of massive civilian casualties, but of deepening sectarian and ethnic cleavages leading to more death by identity and the creation of more refugees . Following the eviction of ISIS from Tikrit last year Human Rights Watch documented the “Ruinous Aftermath” in the city thus: “in the aftermath of the fighting, militia forces looted, torched, and blew up hundreds of civilian houses and buildings in Tikrit and the neighboring towns..” While it is true that the U.S. in the past criticized the sectarian practices of these militias and asked the Iraqi government not to allow them to participate in liberating Sunni cities from ISIS, a request that was ignored by Baghdad, there are ample signs now that Washington has lessened its opposition to some of these militias. In fact last spring US Consul General Steve Walker expressed sympathy with some of the wounded members of the Popular Mobilization Forces during a visit to a hospital in Basra.
Deepening sectarian and ethnic divides
Just as the city of Ramadi was essentially destroyed in order to be “saved” from ISIS, a similar fate could befall Fallujah. There are credible concerns that the decision to attack Fallujah which came after a short notice to the U.S. is in part a political maneuver by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to deflect attention from his domestic travails following a series of deadly bombings in Baghdad, and growing social unrest against corruption and calls for reforms that almost paralyzed his government. Iran, the hidden hand behind major Iraqi decisions, was on display recently when the ubiquitous Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani showed up in photos taken at an operations room outside Fallujah, discussing maps of military operations with senior militia commanders. The absence of a unified countervailing moderate Arab Sunni force to ISIS in Iraq and Syria will guarantee that the defeat of ISIS, will likely lead to the birth of a new form of Sunni radicalism in years to come. The fight for Manbij City, which is a prelude for a major attack on ISIS controlled Raqqa is raising concerns about potential ethnic conflicts between Kurds and Arabs. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed coalition of armed groups led by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), has been with U.S. logistical support mobilizing thousands of fighters in the countryside north of Raqqa to isolate the city. American Special Forces in Syria have been training and advising and possibly fighting along with YPG fighters. In fact U.S. military personnel have been “embedded” with YPG fighters, as seen in recent photos showing U.S. soldiers wearing emblems of the YPG on their shoulders.
But while the Kurds of Syria have legitimate political and cultural grievances and demands that should be fairly addressed in a post-Assad Syria, nonetheless the YPG which represent the most powerful Syrian Kurdish group has been accused by human rights organizations of engaging in ethnic cleansings and forcing Arabs and Turkmens from their areas and demolishing their homes in areas under YPG control. It is ironic that the YPG, which came into existence with the help of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) of Turkey a group designated by the U.S. as a terrorist group, is also receiving help from the Russians in Syria. If the YPG leads the fight to retake Raqqa and its environ, a region inhabited by mostly Syrian Arabs, the outcome will likely result in new tensions and possibly violence between Arabs and Kurds.
The disintegration of states
In recent years we have witnessed the destructive triumph of identity politics during the breakup of Yugoslavia, and the Sudan or between the Hutu and the Tutsi. Since the beginning of the Arab uprisings five years ago, we have witnessed the collapse of the state system in a number of Arab countries. Many a historian and analyst have had their chance in recent weeks to ponder the legacy or legacies of the Sykes-Picot agreement and the other treaties and arrangements that led to the birth of the modern State system in the Middle East after the First World War. One clear conclusion is that many of those societies failed to develop modern state institutions, good and efficient governance based on fair representations of the components of those societies, a failure that led to the calamitous present in Syria, and Iraq ( the same can be said about Yemen and Libya)..When the uprisings failed to create alternative political structures, the brittle regimes in Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen collapsed into chaos or civil wars. (a similar situation occurred in Iraq, with the failure of the invading power to create a functioning and fair governance). With the fears and uncertainties spawned by the collapse of order, particularly in heterogeneous societies, people fell back on their bedrock certainties and identities. When people are threatened as members of a community (a religious sect or an ethnic group) they tend to develop a strong sense of solidarity with other members of the group as a form of self-defense. The identity of the group is almost always exaggerated, and the threat is invariably described as existential. That is one reason why civil wars are the most passionate of wars. It is so because the combatants know each other, and because they have irreconcilable views and visions about their way of life, their future and their very own identity. Extreme identity politics reduce us to mere members of a large tribe.
The region is going through a historic convulsion that will last for years, maybe decades. But the raging sectarian wars and mounting ethnic tensions are recent and the product of power struggles, political decisions and events and not the result of “ancient hatreds”. The Sunni-Shiite wars are unprecedented because they are the product of the last few decades. The 1979 revolution in Iran was a milestone in modern Shi’a assertiveness. Sunni political Islam after suffering crushing blows by the Arab Nationalists in the 1950’s and 60’s began to reassert itself after the Arab defeat in the war with Israel in 1967 by claiming that the return to true Islam is the solution. The disastrous Iraqi decision to invade Iran was a huge blow to Sunni-Shiite coexistence, and it revived Arab-Persian enmity. In Syria, the ascendency of the Alawite minority (an offshoot of Shi’ism) to power and their control of the army and the security agencies deepened the rift with the Sunni majority. This situation led to a low intensity civil war beginning in 1978 and culminating in the massacre of Sunni rebels in the city of Hama in 1982. Finally the American invasion of Iraq, which empowered the Shiites who have been marginalized in the modern state of Iraq and oppressed as a community by the regime of Saddam Hussein, led to the most sectarian bloodletting between the two sects in modern times. The U.S. cannot mediate the Sunni-Shiite divide, but at least it should not pursue policies in Syria and Iraq that will make it irretrievably worse.
In the last fifty years, many groups in the region engaged in crass expressions of identity politics, and outright discourse of exclusion; this is true of Arabs and Jews, Arabs and Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites and Christians and Muslims. Identity politics and practices have become the norms, even in cities like Alexandria, Beirut, Damascus and Baghdad that were once cosmopolitan. Dissent against the prevailing orthodoxy of the tribe became prohibitive, particularly under autocratic regime, where the state is unable or unwilling in most cases to help those who dare to challenge the discourse of identity politics. There are few dissenting Shiite and Sunni voices in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and other states were these two sects live, who would oppose publicly the course of the tribe.
Ironically, the digital age which allows the peoples of the region, particularly the youth tremendous opportunities to look beyond the confines of the tribe, to be informed instantly of events and trends, to be exposed to practical and theoretical knowledge, is in fact contributing to the atomization of the region and deepening the attachment to identity politics. Death by identity need not be the future of the region, but until the various tribes are exhausted, and until new uprisings emerge against the sins of both the in-group and the out-group, the scourge of extreme identity politics will continue to devour the region.

After imposing his will on Syria, Putin is moving onto Libya
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/Jube 04/16
After imposing Moscow’s will on the situation in Syria, Putin is moving on to Libya. And this new proxy conflict he is waging with the West has many of the same hallmarks of the last one: the West backs a pitiful attempt at a ‘democratic’ government with unfortunate Islamist leanings, Putin backs an authoritarian, militaristic autocrat, and ISIS sits squarely in the middle, a target of everyone’s rhetoric but too rarely of their weapons. And once again, the West is being outmaneuvered. The Western-backed government of National Accord ruling from Tripoli is anything but democratic, and is barely held together with the ‘protection’ of Islamist ‘Libya Dawn’, a coalition which includes former Al-Qaeda jihadists, amongst other interesting characters. And the ‘protection’ also comes at the cost of Dawn steadily usurping the institutions of this government recognized by the West and the UN. A very thin veil of civility is masking a very chaotic and merciless struggle for power between groups that have very little in common and very little shared notion of what Libya should look like in the future. Meanwhile, in the eastern city of Tobruk, the elected parliament of Libya, the House of Representatives, increasingly alienated from the government by the intrusion of Dawn into the political process in Tripoli, is being attracted into the sphere of influence of the rebel General Haftar who controls the East of the country, most of the oil fields, and who is backed by Russia. If this ploy works, Putin is establishing a template for how to take Middle Eastern countries into his sphere of influence. Now the Russians have just reportedly helped the East to print 4bn dinars, backed by that oil, and to consolidate a rival central bank to the one in Tripoli. In effect, Putin is helping Haftar build parallel state institutions to those in the West of the country. And, with their superior wealth and military power, the East can expect that in the medium-to-long term they will steadily usurp the legitimate institutions of the state, and eventually take over the whole of Libya. And just like in Syria, there is no need for a public confrontation between the Western-backed government in Tripoli and the Russian-backed East. Both can pretend to arm their clients and even send troops on the ground under the pretext of fighting ISIS, who are holed up in Sirte, right in-between the two main factions.
Sphere of influence politics
What Putin is doing is good, old sphere of influence politics, just like in the Cold War. But the West is failing to respond in kind. They either refuse to acknowledge this reality, or are impotent to do anything about Putin’s grab for the Middle East. The Obama administration, now in “legacy mode”, will not allow itself to be dragged into open involvement into Libya, while the Europeans who contributed most to the toppling of Qaddafi in 2011, Britain and France, are caught up in other serious business at home – the UK with its referendum on exiting the European Union, and France with some of the most serious industrial disputes in years. The most worrying aspect of this for us should be the fact that, if this ploy works, Putin is establishing a template for how to take Middle Eastern countries into his sphere of influence that could extend to our traditional allies in the region. The militaristic, autocratic, and often secular dictators which we have traditionally backed, have now seen, in the wake of the Arab Spring, just how squeamish and unreliable the West can be about their administrations. Public opinion and Western leaders have repeatedly backed the democratic uprisings, Islamist warts and all. But Putin and the Russians have shown no such squeamishness. They have stood by their ally Assad in Syria, and now are backing a similar kind of administration in Libya. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt must be watching closely.

Will the Syrian regime ever ease the suffering of its people?
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/Jube 04/16
The United Nations has reportedly confirmed it is highly unlikely to support or facilitate air drops of humanitarian aid to areas besieged by Bashar al-Assad’s criminal regime without the regime’s approval. In what marks the latest utter failure of Syrian civilians, the UN is capitulating to Assad’s continued practice of denying humanitarian aid in areas opposed to him. Using starvation as a weapon and humanitarian aid as a bargaining chip in negotiations has been a key part of Assad’s strategy for years. Assessing now that there is any likelihood he will give the UN or any other actor approval for airdrops of aid is ludicrous; moreover, allowing the Syrian regime to dictate how, when and where humanitarian aid can be distributed is a betrayal of Syrian civilians and reinforces the notion that humanitarian law is merely a suggestion. Begging the murderous regime to allow the international community to help alleviate suffering in Syria marks a new and despicable low in this bloody conflict; involved parties must plan to act unilaterally to ensure aid is delivered to every area that is in dire need. No reasonable party can justify looking to a regime guilty of exterminating its own people for support of humanitarian missions.
No reasonable party can justify looking to a regime guilty of exterminating its own people for support of humanitarian missions. According to the Guardian, the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) reportedly agreed in April that the UN World Food Program would conduct airdrops of humanitarian aid beginning on June 1 if the Syrian government continued to block the transfer of aid via land. The deadline has come and gone and, predictably, the regime has continued to block aid deliveries on the ground, prompting British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond to issue a statement indicating that the regime “has cynically allowed limited amounts of aid… but it has failed to deliver the widespread humanitarian access called for by the international community.”
Military response
Despite the meeting in April and the progress that was ostensibly made, the AP reported the UN is now reneging on its air drop plans; it is a staggering new development in the conflict. After years of the regime blocking access to aid workers on the ground, there is every reason to assess Assad will act to block the same in the air. That said, aid deliveries without the regime’s approval are unlikely to be met with a military response; Assad and Russia are not likely to seek an escalation with the West over humanitarian aid deliveries. Notably, even if the regime begins to allow a trickle of aid into besieged areas, awarding itself a small PR victory, it will eventually block such humanitarian operations. The latest UN reports estimate that almost half a million people remain in besieged areas, the vast majority of who – approximately 452,700 - are trapped by the Syrian regime. The UN and international community cannot sit by as spectators while aid is successfully dropped to areas under siege by the opposition or the barbaric ISIS but not the regime. The UN cannot only aid the civilians that the Syrian regime chooses. From the most embryonic stages of the conflict to the birth of the worst refugee crisis since World War II, the world has repeatedly failed to protect Syrians. Air drops of humanitarian aid must be planned and executed without delay and without chasing approval from the Assad regime.

Will the Syrian regime ever ease the suffering of its people?

Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/June 04/16
The United Nations has reportedly confirmed it is highly unlikely to support or facilitate air drops of humanitarian aid to areas besieged by Bashar al-Assad’s criminal regime without the regime’s approval. In what marks the latest utter failure of Syrian civilians, the UN is capitulating to Assad’s continued practice of denying humanitarian aid in areas opposed to him. Using starvation as a weapon and humanitarian aid as a bargaining chip in negotiations has been a key part of Assad’s strategy for years. Assessing now that there is any likelihood he will give the UN or any other actor approval for airdrops of aid is ludicrous; moreover, allowing the Syrian regime to dictate how, when and where humanitarian aid can be distributed is a betrayal of Syrian civilians and reinforces the notion that humanitarian law is merely a suggestion. Begging the murderous regime to allow the international community to help alleviate suffering in Syria marks a new and despicable low in this bloody conflict; involved parties must plan to act unilaterally to ensure aid is delivered to every area that is in dire need. No reasonable party can justify looking to a regime guilty of exterminating its own people for support of humanitarian missions. No reasonable party can justify looking to a regime guilty of exterminating its own people for support of humanitarian missions. According to the Guardian, the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) reportedly agreed in April that the UN World Food Program would conduct airdrops of humanitarian aid beginning on June 1 if the Syrian government continued to block the transfer of aid via land. The deadline has come and gone and, predictably, the regime has continued to block aid deliveries on the ground, prompting British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond to issue a statement indicating that the regime “has cynically allowed limited amounts of aid… but it has failed to deliver the widespread humanitarian access called for by the international community.”
Military response
Despite the meeting in April and the progress that was ostensibly made, the AP reported the UN is now reneging on its air drop plans; it is a staggering new development in the conflict. After years of the regime blocking access to aid workers on the ground, there is every reason to assess Assad will act to block the same in the air. That said, aid deliveries without the regime’s approval are unlikely to be met with a military response; Assad and Russia are not likely to seek an escalation with the West over humanitarian aid deliveries. Notably, even if the regime begins to allow a trickle of aid into besieged areas, awarding itself a small PR victory, it will eventually block such humanitarian operations. The latest UN reports estimate that almost half a million people remain in besieged areas, the vast majority of who – approximately 452,700 - are trapped by the Syrian regime. The UN and international community cannot sit by as spectators while aid is successfully dropped to areas under siege by the opposition or the barbaric ISIS but not the regime. The UN cannot only aid the civilians that the Syrian regime chooses. From the most embryonic stages of the conflict to the birth of the worst refugee crisis since World War II, the world has repeatedly failed to protect Syrians. Air drops of humanitarian aid must be planned and executed without delay and without chasing approval from the Assad regime.


Saudi calls on Israel to accept 2002 Arab peace initiative
Elior Levy, Itamar Eichner, Reuters/Ynetnews/Published: 06.04.16/
Netanyahu said earlier this week Israel was willing to consider initiative that would lead to normalization of ties between Jerusalem and Arab states if changes are made to it, as it calls for Israeli withdrawal from territories, including the Golan Heights.The international conference held in Paris on Friday seeking to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has concluded with a call from Saudi Arabia to adopt the 2002 Arab peace initiative, which would lead to normalization of ties between Israel and Arab states. "The Arab initiative from 2002 is the best proposal for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," said Adel al-Jubeir, the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, which is considered one of the more pragmatic Arab nations. The Arab peace initiative, also known as the "Saudi initiative," called on Israel in 2002 to withdraw from the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. It also called for an independent Palestinian state to be established with East Jerusalem as its capital and for a "just solution for the refugee issue." In return, all Arab states will normalize their relations with Israel and declare the end of their conflict with it.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Arab initiative was an option Israel was willing to consider, but only if changes are made to it. "We're willing to negotiate with Arab states on the updating of the initiative so it reflects the dramatic changes that happened in our region since 2002, while still maintaining the agreed goal of two states for two peoples," Netanyahu said. Al-Jubeir said that changes could be made to the initiative and called on Israel to declare it accepts the initiative, adding that "I hope wisdom prevails in Israel.""The Arab peace initiative has all the elements for a final settlement. It is on the table and a solid basis for resolving this long-standing dispute. It provides Israel with a lot of incentives and it's incumbent on the Israelis to accept that," he added.The Paris conference was attended by diplomats from all over the world, include foreign ministers from the European Union, US Secretary of State John Kerry, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, and representatives from Arab nations.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said the objective was to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table by the end of 2016. "The two-state solution is in serious danger. We are reaching a point of no return where this solution will not be possible," Ayrault told reporters following the conference. Ayrault said the powers wanted work to begin by the end of June on a set of economic incentives and security guarantees to encourage the two sides to resurrect peace talks. A final communiqué released after the conference said all countries present had reaffirmed the need for a negotiated two-state solution and that direct negotiations between the two sides should be based on existing UN Security Council resolutions. It warned that the status quo - a lack of headway toward a Palestinian state - was not sustainable.
The French foreign minister called Abbas on Friday evening to give him an update on the conference. Ayrault, according to the official Palestinian news agency Wafa, told Abbas that the French envoy to the peace process will arrive in the region soon to promote the French initiative. According to the Wafa report, Abbas told Ayrault that the Palestinian leadership is committed to the two-state solution and was willing to cooperate with the international community on the issue. Meanwhile, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki claimed that "some countries interfered to ensure the Paris conference's final communiqué will not include clear positions on the peace process, not even a timetable."
He also criticized the fact the final communiqué did not include any mention of Israeli construction in the settlements, which he said threatened the two-state solution. US Secretary of State John Kerry said the parties had discussed the possibility of convening an international conference by the end of this year, but that direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians would be the only way to achieve a solution. "What today emphasized is we need to find some immediate kinds of steps on the ground that will make a difference," Kerry told reporters. "We need to work with the parties. Everybody agreed today that you can't impose a solution from outside."The European Union's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, said it was the duty of international and regional players to find a breakthrough since the two sides appeared incapable of doing so alone.
"The policy of settlement expansion and demolitions, violence, and incitement tells us very clearly that the perspective that (the 1993 Oslo Accords) opened up is seriously at risk of fading away," Mogherini told reporters. She said the Middle East Quartet of the EU, Russia, United States and United Nations was finalizing recommendations on what should be done for the two sides to negotiate in good faith. Israel, which opposed the French initiative from its conception, called the conference a "missed opportunity," arguing that instead of urging Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to immediately start direct negotiations with no preconditions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the international community has "given into Abbas's demands and is enabling him to avoid bilateral direct negotiations."
"The pages of history will mark this Paris conference as a conference which enables the Palestinians to toughen their position and push peace further away," Israel's Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, meanwhile, said that "the Paris Meeting is a very significant step and its message is clear: If Israel is allowed to continue its colonization and Apartheid policies in Occupied Palestine, the future will be for more extremism and bloodshed rather than for coexistence and peace."
"What is required," he went on to say, "is a genuine mechanism to fully end the Israeli occupation that began in 1967 and to solve all final status issues based on international law; including a clear and limited timeframe for its implementation." "We negotiated bilaterally with Israel, the occupying power, for over two decades, but they continue to violate all the agreements that we had signed. In fact the number of illegal Israeli settlers in Occupied Palestine has grown from nearly 200,000 to over 600,000 during the past 20 years of bilateral talks," Erekat added.
French president Francois Hollande, who opened the conference, said regional changes should be taken into the account when discussing the conditions for an Israeli-Palestinian resolution. "The threats and priorities have changed. The changes make it even more urgent to find a solution to the conflict, and this regional upheaval creates new obligations for peace. We must prove it to the international community," he said.


Russian Views on the Middle East: A Trip Report
James F. Jeffrey and Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/June04/16
Two Washington Institute experts share their findings from recent visits to Russia, where they discussed a wide range of regional issues with current and former officials, leading analysts, and other citizens. In May, the authors conducted separate trips to Russia -- Ms. Borshchevskaya on an orientation visit and Ambassador Jeffrey as part of the Dartmouth-Kettering Track II Exchange Program. Held in Moscow and Zavidovo, the latest Dartmouth-Kettering dialogue focused on wide-ranging U.S.-Russian issues such as Ukraine, arms control, and cooperation in nondiplomatic fields. Russian interlocutors included various experts on the Middle East and bilateral relations; some were current government officials (e.g., the deputy foreign minister gave a briefing), while others were academics, former diplomats, or retired military officials. Below are the authors' impressions from various contacts. Despite the perceived gridlock and conflicting worldviews on matters such as the Ukraine conflict, the main impression from the trip is that Russian officials and experts are generally optimistic about U.S.-Russian collaboration on Middle East issues. This attitude has been shaped by the nuclear agreement with Iran and, more recently, the focus on joint endeavors in Syria.
COMING TOGETHER ON SYRIA?
The optimism about the Syria situation was clearly influenced by the extensive discussions that Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have held on the subject. For example, one of the chairs at the Kettering dialogue, Vitaly Naumkin, was recently selected as an advisor to the UN's Syria negotiation effort led by Staffan de Mistura.
Other players in the war were spoken of less favorably, however. Turkey and Saudi Arabia were often dismissed in disparaging terms, giving the explicit impression that Ankara will still be held accountable in some way for shooting down a Russian military jet last November (one Russian openly sympathized with Syria's claim to Turkey's Hatay province, where the aircraft was shot down). For its part, Riyadh was characterized as being too Islamic, with an oil-fueled economy that is heading for trouble.Interestingly, official Russian discussion of Syria as presented in state-controlled media largely ignores the Sunni/Shiite dimension. According to this warped, simplistic view, the war is between the legitimate government of Bashar al-Assad and the terrorist opposition.
COUNTERTERRORISM AND STABILIZATION
Most interlocutors indicated that the United States and Russia share two common goals in the region: combating terrorism and fostering stability. The Russians are undoubtedly sincere on the former, despite the lackluster results of their efforts against the Islamic State, which stand in curious contrast to their devastating success against other forces fighting the Assad regime. Yet counterterrorism is hardly their top priority, and their definition of "stability" reveals significant divergence from most U.S. views of the region. For one thing, Russian participants in the Kettering dialogue argued that Washington's supposed strategy of pursuing stability through democracy promotion was counterproductive. American participants made zero effort to advocate this alleged democracy-centered approach during hours of meetings, and they repeatedly pointed out that such promotion has not been U.S. policy for years. Yet these facts did little to dissuade the Russians from their theory. Of more interest was the general Russian view that the right way to achieve stability is to promote secularism. Given Bashar al-Assad's record in Syria, they did not explicitly link him with either concept, but one can infer much from their repeated advocacy of this theme. They were less shy about branding the Islamic Republic of Iran as somehow secular at heart, with one participant describing a touching "secular" scene of a girl on the back of a motorbike embracing her male driver. They clearly saw President Hassan Rouhani's wing of the Iranian body politic as ascendant and had little to say about the Supreme Leader and his Revolutionary Guard.
What they seemingly failed to see was that they were advocating the imposition of a Western value -- secularism -- on the Middle East's complex social, religious, and cultural tapestry. This is arguably just as false a solution to the stability dilemma as the purported American obsession with democracy. The emphasis on secularism is especially interesting in light of Russia's growing radicalization problem at home. Authorities are trying to resolve that problem through the suppression of religion, among other things, but Russian experts on the North Caucasus note that Islamic education has actually deterred individuals in that region from joining the Islamic State. In other words, ignorance about Islam is what opens the door for radicalization.
RUSSIAN VIEWS ON U.S. POLICY
Russian participants in the Kettering dialogue -- some of whom had held senior positions in the energy sector -- also emphasized that America's new energy production is a Middle East game-changer. One even congratulated his American colleagues for becoming the "New Saudi Arabia." This optimism was not tempered by efforts to explain the limited and temporary benefits of American tight oil and gas, or the reality of the Middle East's role in the global hydrocarbons market, which remains central today and will likely become even more crucial by the 2030s. One problem with this Russian attitude is that it opens the door to a convenient "alternative universe" view of American motives. While the United States still seems to act as a traditional container of regional expansion in Moscow's backyard (e.g., by strengthening NATO and issuing Ukraine sanctions), Russians were somewhat puzzled by the Obama administration's reluctance to do the same in the Middle East, a region that has been part of America's extended backyard for four decades. Their apparent explanation for this disparity is that America has supposedly decreased its dependence on Middle East oil, refocused most of its regional attention onto terrorism, and accepted that stability is the main goal there, even if the alleged approach to that goal -- democracy promotion -- has failed. The danger is that this may suggest a greater commonality of interests with Russia than might be the case, especially in the next U.S. administration.
THE DOMESTIC SCENE
Outside official Moscow circles, many Russians complain about economic struggles and other issues that affect them personally, such as their inability to travel to Turkey and Egypt. The government suspended visa-free travel to Turkey following the November military shootdown incident; that same month, it suspended all flights to Egypt after an Islamic State affiliate took down a Russian passenger jet leaving the Sinai. To be sure, they have other travel opportunities in the region -- for example, one can now see ads for trips to Morocco on Moscow's streets, perhaps because King Mohammed visited the capital recently for the first time in years to improve bilateral relations. Yet this appears to provide little consolation given the growing restrictions elsewhere. Regarding Syria, authorities talk as little as possible about casualties in an apparent effort to convince the public that Russia is not losing anything by intervening there. In fact, discussion of Syria, Ukraine, and similar foreign issues is now on the periphery. This is why an official can speak of Russia's Syria-related losses without mentioning the 224 citizens who died in the Sinai jet incident in October, shortly after Vladimir Putin launched the intervention to defend Assad. Authorities have even begun to deemphasize the recent death of Spetsnaz officer Alexander Prokhorenko; in March, he called airstrikes on his position in Palmyra after being surrounded by Islamic State forces, and state-controlled media trumpeted his heroism. Yet the Russian people would prefer not to have that kind of heroism, as sociologist Denis Volkov of the independent polling agency Levada-Center explained during the trip. Previously, in an October article for the Carnegie Endowment, he wrote: "With Syria, as with other domestic and foreign issues, the Russian government is taking public opinion into account not for the sake of the opinion itself, but in order to minimize the costs of implementing its policy."
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
To the extent that the next U.S. administration looks at the Middle East in more traditional terms -- that is, like the current administration treats Ukraine, the Caucasus, the Black Sea, and the Baltics -- Russians could be surprised by the significant pushback against their agenda. As mentioned above, by identifying regional stability with the promotion of secularism, they are trying to sell an outside concept to a largely religious region. Worse, they are identifying themselves with two allegedly secular forces -- Assad and the Iranians -- that are profoundly destabilizing the region. This is a recipe for a clash potentially even more dangerous than in the Ukraine, where Russian military capabilities and political interests are predominant. Again, the danger of Russian miscalculation in the Middle East is high because Moscow seems to believe that most of America's geostrategic interests there are fading in parallel with its decreasing reliance on regional oil, and that the counterterrorism agenda is all that matters to Washington. Meanwhile, the situation at home is growing worse. The Russian economy continues to decline. State-controlled television tries to distract the public with shows such as Goodbye America, which prophesies the fall of "the star-striped empire," but many Russians have stopped watching. Some are simply burying their head in the sand, focusing on other aspects of their lives. Putin will likely survive another election, but his government is less stable than it appears. Ironically, he seeks dialogue with the West because he has defined his rule in relation to the West, and therefore needs it. In response, the West should push back on the Kremlin's Middle East agenda, but within the framework of extensive consultations at the official, think tank, academic, and Track II levels. In a volatile period and a volatile region, misunderstandings and failure to communicate will only heighten the inevitable dangers.
**James Jeffrey is the Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute and former U.S. ambassador to Albania, Iraq, and Turkey. Anna Borshchevskaya is the Institute's Ira Weiner Fellow.

 

Raqqa Will Not Fall Until Arab Tribes Fight the Islamic State
Fabrice Balanche/ The Washington Institute/June 04, 2016
The tribes in eastern Syria have been driven in different directions by the Assad regime, outside actors, and their own self-interest, leaving the coalition with a complex web to untangle before it can fully uproot IS.
This week, Kurdish and Arab fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces pushed west into Islamic State-controlled territory in a bid to seize the town of Manbij. Only days earlier, however, the beginnings of a longer southward campaign — to retake the IS “capital” of Raqqa — were set in motion when the SDF began attacking IS positions in Balikh Valley, about fifty kilometers north of the city.
The latter offensive is far from a blitzkrieg that will bring the SDF to the outskirts of Raqqa promptly; for one thing, the Kurds may be distracted by their oft-stated goal of continuing westward toward Afrin in order to link up their two border enclaves (see PolicyWatch 2542, “The Die Is Cast: The Kurds Cross the Euphrates”). Yet the SDF’s main military patron, the United States, has another reason to be cautious about the Raqqa timeline — before the coalition even thinks about launching a final push on the city, it must rally the Arab tribes in the area, some of whom have pledged allegiance to IS. Any such effort will require a thorough understanding of the evolving role that tribes have played there, first under the Assad regime and now under IS rule.
TRIBAL STRUCTURE IN SYRIA
In Syria as in other countries, a tribe (ashira) is an ancestral network comprising anywhere from a few thousand to tens of thousands of members, subdivided into clans (shabba). Although clans generally compete for control of their tribe, they show solidarity in the face of outside danger.
During the Ottoman period, some tribal federations (e.g., the Shammar) were powerful enough to avoid paying imperial taxes, earning them the moniker “noble” tribes. Those who did pay are regarded as “common” tribes in the Bedouin hierarchy. Many common tribesmen still harbor animosity against their “noble” counterparts after being dominated by them for centuries.
While the noble tribes have retained their transnational nature and patronage ties with Saudi Arabia, the common tribes are more rooted in the Syrian state and have largely abandoned their nomadic lifestyle. These differences shaped their response to the 2011 uprising. When anti-regime protests first emerged, tribes with Saudi links took part early on, which explains why Deir al-Zour province rapidly shifted toward the opposition. Yet Raqqa province remained loyal for longer because common tribes are more numerous there, and they had benefited from decades of agrarian reform and development projects launched by the Baath regime.
THE REGIME’S APPROACH TO TRIBES
In the 1960s, the Baath regime was very hostile toward representatives of major tribal confederations, actively dispossessing them of their land. In response, some leading sheikhs left the country, while those who remained in Syria were eventually coopted.
The construction of Thawra Dam and the launch of the Euphrates Valley Irrigation Program in the 1970s greatly facilitated this process. The regime integrated tribal elites by giving them positions in the state apparatus, and some were quick to appropriate the best irrigated fields. As expert Myriam Ababsa pointed out in a 2010 paper, this led to the emergence of a Baathist tribal generation that used its newfound political weight to gain power within the tribal hierarchy, which in turn fostered deeper tribal allegiance to the regime.
Ultimately, however, this new framework did not work in the national interest because many of the coopted tribesmen were simply using state resources to further their own local interests. As a result, the regime’s irrigation program became an economic fiasco, with tribal politics taking precedence over development. By the time Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father Hafiz in 2000, the project was collapsing — the government could not afford to extend the irrigation system any further, and efforts to reform agricultural and water policies were blocked by bureaucracy and political patronage (see PolicyWatch 2622, “Water Issues Are Crucial to Stability in Syria’s Euphrates Valley”). Tensions were further exacerbated by the area’s high fertility rate, which was essentially doubling the population every twenty years.
In short, the Euphrates project allowed the regime to rent — not buy — the local tribes. Although the Raqqa region was loyal to Assad until as late as 2013, years of agrarian policy failures and the influx of money from Gulf countries ultimately pushed most tribal leaders toward the opposition. Even so, some sheikhs remain loyal today and have fled to Damascus, where they enjoy protection because the regime hopes they will be useful once it retakes the Euphrates Valley.
The regime has also employed military means to coopt tribes. The army began recruiting heavily in the Euphrates area during the 1980s, and many residents of this underdeveloped region came to view military service as a social elevator. That same decade, Hafiz al-Assad used the Haddadin tribe to fight the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama, eventually destroying the rebellious city. Today, the Haddadin are helping his son fight rebel forces and protect the Aleppo supply road east of Hama, while prominent sheikh Fahd Jassem al-Freij serves as Bashar’s defense minister. Similarly, the younger Assad did not hesitate to distribute weapons to Arab tribes in Jazira when facing a Kurdish revolt in 2004. These tribes — the Jabbour, Adwan, Tay, and Ougaidat — are still fighting with him today because they fear their enemies will take revenge if he loses power. This explains why the army is able to control a pocket in the middle of Kurdish territory south of Qamishli.
THE ISLAMIC STATE’S TRIBAL POLICY
After establishing itself in eastern Syria during the war, IS quickly integrated the tribes into its own system. Once local sheikhs pledged allegiance to the supposed IS “caliph,” they were asked to marry their daughters to high-ranking IS members and send their sons to fight with the group. IS gave oil wells, land, and other benefits to those who voluntarily joined it, but attacked those who resisted its hegemony (e.g., massacring 700 members of the Sheitat tribe in August 2014).
Like the Baath regime before it, IS has sought to create an independent social base out of the traditional tribal hierarchy. If an elder sheikh is hesitant to cooperate, the group promotes a younger son or a secondary clan within his tribe. But it focuses its most intense efforts on adolescents, who are drawn into camps for ideological indoctrination and military training. Over the past three years, thousands of young men have been radicalized and detribalized, which will raise a serious rehabilitation problem once IS has been defeated.
The group also uses conflicts between tribes to impose its power. In Jarabulus, IS supported Tay tribesmen against the Jais tribe, forcing the latter to leave the city and seek refuge in Turkey (it is unclear what relationship the attackers had with the main Tay tribal stronghold on Syria’s far northeastern border, though the war has at times spurred groups of tribesmen to leave their traditional territory). And in August 2013, IS helped the Arab tribes of Tal Abyad defeat Kurdish fighters from the People’s Defense Units (YPG), expel all Kurds from the district, destroy their villages, and redistribute their land to Arabs. Interviews with local observers confirm the Islamic State’s objective in such cases: to play on Sunni Arab fears of Kurdish irredentism.
LOSING POPULAR SUPPORT
Even if the different actors in the war make the Islamic State their main target, they will still need the local population to reject the group if they hope to fully defeat it. Existing factors will help in this regard, such as local economic deterioration, the group’s heavy repression, and its gradual loss of legitimacy. But rallying the sheikhs will also require giving them money, political positions, and judicial immunity.
In the beginning, IS generously distributed food by emptying state grain silos. The price of bread was cheaper in Raqqa than in the rest of Syria, and fuel cost less because it was produced and refined locally. Yet the group’s strict price controls are no longer curbing inflation, especially as agricultural production decreases — a function of scarce fertilizers and pesticides, heavier taxation on farmers to compensate for declining oil revenue, and an irrigation system beset by infrastructure damage and mismanagement. Farmers in irrigated areas are subject to the same unpopular constraints they faced under Assad, but with decreased income.
Meanwhile, the myth of an Islamic order that provides justice to all of the faithful has faded. Recent interviews with refugees from Deir al-Zour and Raqqa provinces indicate that IS courts are just as corrupt as Assad’s, with the group’s members and their families receiving preferential treatment despite the occasional token execution of corrupt IS fighters. Conscription and enlistment of adolescents has provoked protests (e.g., in Manbij in November 2015), spurring IS to increase repression to keep the population in check.
Given their growing desire for revenge (intiqaam) and their traditional tendency to preserve tribal interests above all else, many individuals and entire clans are ready to help those fighting IS, whether the SDF or the Syrian army. For example, 200 members of the Sheitat tribe joined the army in Deir al-Zour after the 2014 massacre, and tribal collaboration helped the regime retake Palmyra this March. As the army and SDF approach Raqqa, tribal defections around Deir al-Zour and Manbij are multiplying.
PREVENTING TRIBAL WAR AFTER THE ISLAMIC STATE
The United States has been backing the SDF via the YPG and its Kurdish parent organization, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and such support — namely, the promise of air support and better weapons — is essential for encouraging tribes to join the anti-IS coalition. Arab tribes from the Fadan federation have already joined the YPG in Raqqa province, while several Shammar tribes in Hasaka province helped YPG units capture al-Hawl and al-Shadadi from IS last winter. These tribes have always had good relations with the Kurds; for example, they refused to help Assad repress the Kurdish uprising of 2004. Yet they are relying on Washington to moderate the PYD’s hegemonic tendencies and ensure their own share of power once IS has left.
The same process is taking place in the northern part of Raqqa province, but with many more obstacles. Some tribes remain fiercely on the Islamic State’s side (e.g., the Afadla and Sabkha), and those who have been expelled from their lands by IS-backed tribes are not ready for quick reconciliation (e.g., the Jais and Sheitat). As a result, the SDF is reaching the limit of how many more tribes it can integrate, and spurring a general uprising against IS would be very difficult without neutral foreign troops on the ground. The level of violence has been so high since 2011 that the traditional tribal measures of regulating it are no longer adequate — several clans and tribes will be forced to flee to avoid collective vengeance, such as the Tay in Jarabulus and the Sbaa in Sukhna (who originally helped IS capture Palmyra).
To stem intertribal violence and chaos after IS, the coalition will need to fill the political vacuum immediately. But conducting free elections is not feasible in the near term, so the new authorities will have to coopt local notables to manage cities and districts during the transition, as Gen. David Petraeus did in Mosul, Iraq, in 2003. The question is whether this is possible without a neutral military force present. The PYD cannot simply transplant its administrative experience from Hasaka and Kobane to non-Kurdish cities such as Raqqa and Deir al-Zour; in fact, the group has been accused of ethnic cleansing in the predominantly Arab town of Tal Abyad.
The alternatives present problems as well. If Arab tribes in the Euphrates Valley are left to organize themselves, they could easily devolve into fighting over cities, land, and water — especially around Thawra Dam, the key to local irrigation and power generation. The Kurds would likely stay out of such conflicts because they have no territorial ambitions in that area, but IS could return, perhaps under a different name. The Syrian army is also close to both the dam and Deir al-Zour, so Assad has not lost hope of exploiting tribal loyalties and fears to regain control there. In short, stabilizing the Euphrates Valley post-IS will be a major financial and political challenge.
*Fabrice Balanche, an associate professor and research director at the University of Lyon 2, is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute.