LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
July 25/16
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.july25.16.htm
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Bible Quotations For Today
You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will they be?
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to
Saint Luke 12/13-21/:"Someone in the crowd said to him, ‘Teacher, tell my
brother to divide the family inheritance with me.’But he said to him, ‘Friend,
who set me to be a judge or arbitrator over you?’And he said to them, ‘Take
care! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; for one’s life does not
consist in the abundance of possessions.’Then he told them a parable: ‘The land
of a rich man produced abundantly. And he thought to himself, "What should I do,
for I have no place to store my crops?" Then he said, "I will do this: I will
pull down my barns and build larger ones, and there I will store all my grain
and my goods. And I will say to my soul, Soul, you have ample goods laid up for
many years; relax, eat, drink, be merry."But God said to him, "You fool! This
very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared,
whose will they be?" So it is with those who store up treasures for themselves
but are not rich towards God.’
The uncovering and failure of
the Jews' Conspiracy to Kill Paul
Acts of the Apostles 23/12-22/:"In the morning the Jews joined in a conspiracy
and bound themselves by an oath neither to eat nor drink until they had killed
Paul. There were more than forty who joined in this conspiracy. They went to the
chief priests and elders and said, ‘We have strictly bound ourselves by an oath
to taste no food until we have killed Paul. Now then, you and the council must
notify the tribune to bring him down to you, on the pretext that you want to
make a more thorough examination of his case. And we are ready to do away with
him before he arrives.’Now the son of Paul’s sister heard about the ambush; so
he went and gained entrance to the barracks and told Paul. Paul called one of
the centurions and said, ‘Take this young man to the tribune, for he has
something to report to him.’So he took him, brought him to the tribune, and
said, ‘The prisoner Paul called me and asked me to bring this young man to you;
he has something to tell you.’ The tribune took him by the hand, drew him aside
privately, and asked, ‘What is it that you have to report to me?’ He answered,
‘The Jews have agreed to ask you to bring Paul down to the council tomorrow, as
though they were going to inquire more thoroughly into his case. But do not be
persuaded by them, for more than forty of their men are lying in ambush for him.
They have bound themselves by an oath neither to eat nor drink until they kill
him. They are ready now and are waiting for your consent.’ So the tribune
dismissed the young man, ordering him, ‘Tell no one that you have informed me of
this.’"
Question: "What does it mean
to test the spirits?"
GotQuestions.org
Answer: "Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see
whether they are from God, for many false prophets have gone out into the world"
(1 John 4:1).
In this verse believers are commanded to "test the spirits to see whether they
are from God." This same command is echoed in other parts of Scripture as well.
For example, in 1 Thessalonians 5:20-21 we find Paul exhorting the Christians to
not "despise prophecies, but test everything; hold fast what is good."
These two passages are just a few of the many that warn Christians to test the
message that people or spirits proclaim. This is true in all situations but most
importantly when a person or spirit is claiming to speak for God. Christians are
to be discerning hearers and readers of all messages. The reason for the
admonition to "test the spirits" or "test all things" is that there are "many
false prophets" or "wolves in sheep's clothing" that try to lead Christians
astray. Sadly, there are many people who claim to speak for God who are
presenting a false gospel that is powerless to save. Such errant teaching leaves
people with a false hope of salvation and, in a way, inoculates them from the
true message. People who are deceived into thinking everything is fine will be
more resistant to the truth.
Second Corinthians 11:13-15 warns us that "such men are false apostles,
deceitful workmen, disguising themselves as apostles of Christ. And no wonder,
for even Satan disguises himself as an angel of light. So it is no surprise if
his servants, also, disguise themselves as servants of righteousness. Their end
will correspond to their deeds." So the reason for testing the spirits, for
testing all religious teaching, is to see if it is truly from God or if it is a
lie from Satan and his servants.
The test is to compare what is being taught with the clear teaching of the
Bible. The Bible alone is the Word of God; it alone is inspired and inerrant.
Therefore, the way to test the spirits is to see if what is being taught is in
line with the clear teaching of Scripture. In Acts 17:10-11 the Berean Jews were
commended because, after they heard the teachings of Paul and Silas, they
"examined the Scriptures daily to see if these things were so." The Bereans were
called "noble" for doing so.
Testing the spirits means that one must know how to "examine the Scriptures."
Rather than accept every teaching, discerning Christians diligently study the
Scriptures. Then they know what the Bible says and therefore can "test all
things and hold fast to what is true." In order to do this, a Christian must "be
diligent to present yourself approved to God, a worker who does not need to be
ashamed, rightly dividing the word of truth" (2 Timothy 2:15). The Word of God
is to be "a lamp" and "a light" to our path (Psalm 119:105). We must let its
light shine on the teachings and doctrines of the day; the Bible alone is the
standard by which all truth must be judged.**Recommended Resource: How to Study
the Bible, Revised Edition by John MacArthur
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials
from miscellaneous sources published on July 24-25/16
Ten years after last Lebanon war,
Israel warns next one will be far worse/William Booth/The Washington Post/July
24/16
Is Jibran Bassil destroying Lebanon’s FPM party/Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf
News/July 24/16
BBC Scrubs 'Ali' from Munich Killer's Name/Raheem Kassam/Cross-posted from
Breitbart/July 24/16
Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi: A Syrian Hezbollah Formation/Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi/Middle
East Forum/July 24/16
Armenian genocide: To continue to deny the truth of this mass human cruelty is
close to a criminal lie/Robert Fisk/Independent/July 24/16
Unlike ISIS, Al-Qaeda Says It Cares about 'Social Justice' in America/Raymond
Ibrahim/PJ Media/July 24, 2016
Munich Shooting Exposes Media Double Standard/A.J. Caschetta/Jihad Watch/July
24/16
Islamism Rises from Europe's Secularism/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/July
24/16
Germans Debate Use of Force against Jihadists/Soeren Ker/Gatestone
Institute/July 24/16
The Terrorist Attack on Nice: Can a Radicalized Lone Wolf be detected/Middle
East Briefing/July 24/16
Russia Braces for New Terror Wave/Middle East Briefing/July 24/16
US-Russia Cooperation in Syria: Question Marks/Middle East Briefing/July 24/16
The Longest Night in Istanbul: Turkey after the 6-Hour Failed Coup/Middle East
Briefing/July 24/16
Don't wipe the smiles off their bright faces/Turki Aldakhil/Al Arabiya/July
24/16
How can there be guardianship over women in a modern Saudi Arabia/Faisal J.
Abbas/Al Arabiya/July 24/16
The Republic of fear and loathing/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/July 24/16
The mutating face of terrorism in the West/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/July
24/16
Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on
July 24-25/16
'No Scheduled Meetings' for Salam at
Arab Summit, Refugees to Top Agenda
Lebanon to Reject Any Arab Labeling of Hizbullah as 'Terrorist', Salam Says
Party a 'Key Component'
Al-Rahi Urges 'Political Community' to Find Presidential 'Settlement'
Army Arrests 'Private Doctor' of Nusra's Leader in Border Region
Pro-Asir Militants Turn Themselves in to Army at Ain el-Hilweh
Travel Ban Lifted Off British-Australian Held in Lebanon
Ex-Lebanon Hostage Thomas Sutherland Dies in Colorado
Finance Minister, Ali Hassan Khalil: For a dialogue that opens horizon to
compromises
Zahraman: Solution to presidential election still elusive
Lebanese army arrests top Nusra Front official in Arsal
Rahi from Ain Mwaffaq: Crisis key to elect a president, reactivate institutional
life
Mohamad Raad: Plotters against Resistance shall only reap humiliation
Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) Head, MP Assaad Hardancalls for
coordination with Syrian government in refugees file
Amine Gemayel: FPM deputies capable of ensuring quorum, PM Salam ought to adopt
strict measures against corruption
Ten years after last Lebanon war, Israel warns next one will be far worse
Is Jibran Bassil destroying Lebanon’s FPM party?
Aoun will never reach presidency: Amine Gemayel
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 24-25/16
Turkey investigating people who say coup attempt was hoax
Syrian refugee kills one, wounds two with machete in Germany '
Saudis in rare Israel visit, meet senior Foreign Ministry official
Saudi Foreign Minister: Iran regime cannot escape the evidence of its aggression
Iran regime arrests more than 50 youths in party raid
Top Arab Diplomats Vow to Defeat 'Terror'
8 Dead, Over 20 Hurt as Rockets Hit Heart of Damascus
Saudi Executes Four Convicted of Murder
41 Migrant Bodies Wash Up on Libya Beach
IS Suicide Bomber Kills at Least 15 in Baghdad
Possible that Erdogan engineered coup,' former Pentagon official tells ‘Post’
Links From Jihad Watch Site forJuly
24-25/16
Pakistan lawyer who defends Christians goes into hiding after
death threats
Muslim friend of Munich jihadi arrested; killer planned jihad attack for a year
Germany: Muslim migrant murders pregnant woman with machete
EU-SSR:
Bleeding Utopia
DC: “Muslims Against ISIS” rally attracts only “small crowd”
UK: Muslims who tried to abduct RAF serviceman at knife-point
part of larger gang
July 24-25/16
'No Scheduled Meetings' for Salam at
Arab Summit, Refugees to Top Agenda
Naharnet/July 24/16/The
Arab Summit that will kick off in Mauritania on Monday might represent a chance
for Prime Minister Tammam Salam to meet with some Arab leaders, although he has
not scheduled any bilateral meetings, a media report said on Sunday. “The PM
might seize the chance to meet some Arab leaders during his participation in the
summit... although his agenda does not include any bilateral meetings,” An Nahar
newspaper reported. Sources close to Salam declined to reveal whether Salam “has
asked for any meetings with Arab leaders,” the daily said. According to
governmental sources, the premier's address at the summit will tackle three main
topics – the financial burden of the Syrian refugee crisis, Lebanon's fight
against terrorism, and Lebanon's “commitment to Arab consensus.”
Lebanon to Reject Any Arab
Labeling of Hizbullah as 'Terrorist', Salam Says Party a 'Key Component'
Naharnet/July 24/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam is expected to face a difficult
situation during Monday's Arab Summit in Mauritania should there be a vote over
a clause labeling Hizbullah as a “terrorist organization.”The premier would also
face a dilemma should the Arab Summit call on Hizbullah to “withdraw from Syria
and not to interfere in Iraq and Yemen,” An Nahar newspaper said on Sunday.
Lebanon would “voice reservations over any such resolution without resorting to
a confrontational stance,” the daily added.
Later on Sunday, Salam himself told reporters accompanying him to Mauritania
that "should the issue of Hizbullah be raised, we will respond by saying that it
is one of the country's main components and that it is represented in the
government."Terrorism is expected to top the agenda of Monday's annual Arab
Summit. Saudi Arabia had recently led the League, the Gulf Cooperation Council
and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in issuing resolutions labeling
Hizbullah “terrorist” over its involvement in some conflicts in the region and
alleged interference in the internal affairs of some Gulf states. The Saudi-led
stances were taken amid a major political confrontation with Iran in the region.
Al-Rahi Urges 'Political
Community' to Find Presidential 'Settlement'
Naharnet/July 24/16/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday called on the
country's politicians to strike a political “settlement” aimed at ending
Lebanon's protracting presidential vacuum, which has been running since May
2014. “Today, let us close ranks – as political community, civil society and
church followers – in order to preserve this country,” said al-Rahi during a
pastoral visit to the Baabda District town of Araya. “We call on the political
community -- which is represented with us today through the presence of two MPs
and representatives of political parties and movements – to exert efforts so
that the State can have a president,” the patriarch added. Warning that “there
is rampant corruption and major paralysis,” al-Rahi cautioned that “our country
has reached the tipping point, and whatever it takes, the political community
must find the necessary settlement in order to embark on electing a new
president.”
The patriarch also called on the international community to “separate the
presidential crisis from the regional developments,” while urging the Lebanese
to “take a brave and firm domestic decision in order to resolve our
problem.”Lebanon has been without a president since the term of Michel Suleiman
ended in May 2014 and Hizbullah, MP Michel Aoun's Change and Reform bloc and
some of their allies have been boycotting the parliament's electoral sessions,
stripping them of the needed quorum. Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad
Hariri, who is close to Saudi Arabia, launched an initiative in late 2015 to
nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency but his
proposal was met with reservations from the country's main Christian parties as
well as Hizbullah. The supporters of Aoun's presidential bid argue that he is
more eligible than Franjieh to become president due to the size of his
parliamentary bloc and his bigger influence in the Christian community.
Army Arrests 'Private Doctor'
of Nusra's Leader in Border Region
Naharnet/July 24/16/The army on Sunday managed to arrest the “private doctor” of
the so-called “emir” of the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front in the Syria-Lebanon
border region, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported. “The Lebanese
army has managed to arrest in (the northeastern border town of) Arsal the Syrian
national J. Sharafeddine, who is the private doctor of Abu Malek al-Talli,” al-Nusra's
leader in the border region, NNA said. Earlier on Sunday, the agency announced
that “one of the most senior terrorists of al-Nusra Front was arrested at a
Lebanese army checkpoint in Arsal's outskirts.” It was not immediately clear if
it was referring to the same person. “Strict security measures are still
underway inside and around the town of Arsal in pursuit of fugitives and
terrorists,” NNA said. LBCI television meanwhile reported that the army arrested
in Arsal a Lebanese man accused of “smuggling goods to the outskirts” and that
“he is being interrogated to determine whether he had ties to the militant
groups.” The army has been implementing strict security measures in and around
Arsal since Saturday, in the wake of the attempted assassination of a mayor and
reports that Syrian and Lebanese militants have prepared a “hit list” that
includes the names of ten people in Arsal that the group intends to liquidate.
Ever since the Syrian revolt erupted in March 2011, Arsal has served as a key
conduit for refugees, rebels, extremists and wounded people fleeing strife-torn
Syria. Militants from al-Nusra and the Islamic State group are entrenched in
rugged mountains in the town's outskirts and along the Lebanese-Syrian border
and the Lebanese army regularly shells their positions while Hizbullah and the
Syrian army have engaged in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border.
IS and al-Nusra briefly overran the town of Arsal in August 2014 before being
ousted by the army after days of deadly battles. The retreating militants
abducted more than 30 troops and policemen of whom four have been executed and
nine remain in the captivity of the IS group.
Pro-Asir Militants Turn
Themselves in to Army at Ain el-Hilweh
Naharnet/July 24/16/Two militants from the group of detained Islamist cleric
Ahmed al-Asir turned themselves in to the army at dawn at the Ain el-Hilweh
Palestinian refugee camp, a media report said on Sunday. LBCI television
identified the two as Mahmoud al-Qarout and Bahaa al-Birtawi, saying the
extremist Jund al-Sham group captured a third pro-Asir militant, Yahia al-Urr,
as he was trying to surrender to the army. Several members of Asir's group had
fled to the camp in the wake of the deadly Abra battle with the army in 2013. By
long-standing convention, the Lebanese army does not enter the 12 Palestinian
refugee camps in the country, leaving security inside to the Palestinian
themselves, but the military has checkpoints at the camps' entrances.
Travel Ban Lifted Off
British-Australian Held in Lebanon
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 24/16/The lawyer of a dual British-Australian
national indicted in a botched attempt to kidnap two Australian-Lebanese
children at the center of a custody battle has said that a travel ban imposed on
his client has been lifted. Joe Karam said Adam Whittington and his colleague,
Greg Michael, "are free to go." Whittington, who heads a British-based child
recovery agency, allegedly masterminded the plot to kidnap the children, Noah
and Lahalla, from their Lebanese father, Ali al-Amin, in Beirut in April.
Whittington, his colleague and the children's Australian mother, Sally Faulkner,
were charged with forceful kidnapping. Faulkner and an Australian TV crew posted
bail in April and have since returned to Australia. Judges issued the ban
against Whittington Friday but Karam appealed the decision. Karam says the judge
reversed the ban Saturday.
Ex-Lebanon Hostage Thomas
Sutherland Dies in Colorado
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 24/16/Thomas Sutherland, a teacher was held
captive in Lebanon for more than six years until he was freed in 1991 and
returned home to become professor emeritus at Colorado State University, has
died. Sutherland died in Fort Collins on Friday at the age of 85, according to
Colorado State University. Sutherland was one of a number of Americans in
Lebanon — including Associated Press bureau chief Terry Anderson — who were
kidnapped by militant groups in the 1980s. Sutherland was dean of the Faculty of
Agriculture and Food Science at American University in Beirut when he was taken
hostage by Islamic militants in 1985. "I spent six years out of the seven years
I was in captivity with Tommy," Anderson told The Associated Press on Saturday.
"We were kept in the same cells and sometimes on the same chain. Whenever they
moved us, generally Tommy would show up with me. He was a kind and gentle
man."Sutherland taught him French when they were hostages, Anderson said. "He
spoke beautiful French. We practiced irregular verbs," he said. Anderson said
Sutherland "was a guy who remembered everyone he ever met. He never forgot
anyone. I don't know how he did it. He was such a people person that he
remembered everybody. When we were in prison, we would sit and talk about things
we had done and places he had gone. He always talked about the people he met
there, and he remembered them. He was a very, very good man." When Sutherland
was freed in 1991, he returned to CSU and served as professor emeritus. The
Denver Post reported Sutherland took up acting in his early 70s and donated
millions to area arts organizations. "The entire Colorado State University
community joins once again in honoring a true hero - who believed that an
understanding of agricultural science could bring relief to people and
communities in hunger — and that education could be a force for good and light
in our world that would transcend borders and differences among nations,"
Colorado State University President Tony Frank said in a posting Saturday on
CSU's website.
In 1996, Sutherland and his wife, Jean, came out with a book about the Middle
East and their ordeal titled "At Your Own Risk: An American Chronicle of Crisis
and Captivity in the Middle East." The Sutherlands were longtime community
leaders and volunteers, CSU said. They formed the Sutherland Family Foundation,
which has supported many Fort Collins nonprofits. In 2014 the Sutherlands
received the annual Founders Day Medal in recognition of their service to the
university, Fort Collins, and higher education worldwide. The medal is given "to
those whose pioneering efforts have had an extraordinary influence on the
character and development of CSU," the posting on CSU's website said.
Finance Minister, Ali Hassan Khalil: For a dialogue that opens horizon to
compromises
Sun 24 Jul 2016/NNA -
Finance Minister, Ali Hassan Khalil, said that his party was in favor of a
dialogue that opens the horizon to compromises without eliminating any other
Lebanese party.Khalil’s stance came on Sunday during a graduation ceremony in
Nabatieh in the presence of figures. He denounced terrorist attacks all over the
world."We confirm the condemnation and rejection of any act of terrorism carried
out against people of any religious affiliation," Khalil added."Lebanon is
witnessing today one of the deepest crises. This crisis should push political
forces to an exceptional awareness and unusual attitude towards the pending
cases, notably the presidential vacuum," he concluded
Zahraman: Solution to
presidential election still elusive
Sun 24 Jul 2016/NNA - Member of the parliamentary Future bloc Khaled Zahraman,
said on Sunday that presidential election was still out of reach despite a wave
of optimism prevailing on the local scene. Zahramn's words came during a meeting
with chiefs of Akkar at his house in Fnaidek. He also said that the relationship
between the Future Movement and the Lebanese Forces party was strategic.
Lebanese army arrests top
Nusra Front official in Arsal
Sun 24 Jul 2016/NNA - The Lebanese Army arrested on Sunday at checkpoint a top
Nusra Front official in the outskirts of Arsal, NNA correspondent said. Army
units pursued their security measures within Arsal town in search of terrorists
and wanted suspects.
Rahi from Ain Mwaffaq: Crisis
key to elect a president, reactivate institutional life
Sun 24 Jul 2016/NNA - Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rahi wrapped up his pastoral
visit to Ain Mwaffaq village in Mount Lebanon, where he officiated over a mass
service at St. Charbel Church. After reading from the Gospel, Rahi emphasized
that the key to resolve the crisis in the country was by electing a President
who could revive the work of constitutional institutions.
Mohamad Raad: Plotters
against Resistance shall only reap humiliation
Sun 24 Jul 2016/NNA - "Loyalty to the Resistance" Parliamentary Bloc Head, MP
Mohamad Raad, said on Sunday that "those conspiring against the Resistance shall
only reap humiliation and indignity." Speaking at a Hezbollah memorial ceremony
in the town of Nabatieh, Raad questioned: "Is it not shameful and scandalous
that while the Resistance prepares to shake the Zionist entity, certain leaders
of Arab countries sneak to hold negotiations and seminars with the Israeli
enemy, for the sake of coordinating to fight us and eliminate the splendor of
hope that we have planted in our people and our nation?"
Syrian Social Nationalist
Party (SSNP) Head, MP Assaad Hardancalls for coordination with Syrian government
in refugees file
Sun 24 Jul 2016/NNA - Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) Head, MP Assaad
Hardan, called Sunday on the Lebanese government to coordinate with the Syrian
government to find a solution to the sufferings of Syrian refugees. "Such
coordination would ensure the return of a large number of refugees to their
homeland," he said. He also urged all political parties to play a positive role,
in order to help Lebanon confront this critical situation and strengthen
security in the country. "Reinforcing Lebanon against occupation and terrorism
is a national priority," he added.Hardan denounced the terrorist attacks that
recently struck several countries of the world, calling upon the international
community to combine efforts to fight this scourge.
Amine Gemayel: FPM deputies
capable of ensuring quorum, PM Salam ought to adopt strict measures against
corruption
Sun 24 Jul 2016/NNA - Former President Amine Gemayel considered, on Sunday, that
"members of the Free Patriotic Movement's parliamentary bloc are capable of
completing quorum in order to elect a President of the Republic."He added that
"Prime Minister Tammam Salam ought to adopt a strict approach to the corruption
dossier, especially in wake of the stalled operations of the Central Inspection
Body, Audit Department and the State's Civil Service Council."Gemayel's words
came in a radio interview to "Voice of Lebanon" Station, during which he
disclosed that his recent contacts with both the American and Russian sides
focused on the priority of ensuring stability and reaching a cease-fire, since
any truce provides a chance for a political solution in the region. Gemayel
called for awaiting the outcome of the "Kerry-Lavrov" moves to ensure a minimum
level of peace and stability in the region; otherwise the status quo would
persist until after the US elections, he noted.
Ten years after last Lebanon war,
Israel warns next one will be far worse
William Booth/The Washington Post/July 24/16
MISGAV AM, Israel — When Israeli army commanders describe how the next war
against Hezbollah could unfold, they often search for words not used in military
manuals. The future conflict, they warn, will be “ferocious” and “terrible.”
For both sides, the Israelis fear.
Yet far worse for Hezbollah and the civilians of Lebanon, they promise.
Ten years after Israel and Hezbollah fought a bloody but inconclusive 34-day war
that left more than 1,000 soldiers and civilians dead in July and August of
2006, the Lebanese Shiite militant group has been transformed.
Hezbollah is now a regional military power, a cross-border strike force, with
thousands of soldiers hardened by four years of fighting on Syrian battlefields
on behalf of President Bashar al-Assad. There are 7,000 Hezbollah fighters in
Syria, Israeli commanders say.
Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah addresses supporters from a screen during a
ceremony marking the 40th day after Hezbollah commander Mustafa Badreddine
(picture on banner) was killed. (Aziz Taher/Reuters)
Hezbollah troops have been schooled by Iranian commanders, funded by Tehran and
have learned to use, in combat, some of the most sophisticated armaments
available, such as fourth-generation Kornet guided anti-tank missiles. They
pilot unmanned aircraft and fight alongside artillery and tanks. They have taken
rebel-held villages with Russian air support.
More than 1,000 Hezbollah fighters have died, the Israelis say; they do not
describe Hezbollah as “demoralized” but “tested.”
“In 2006, Hezbollah fought a guerrilla war. Today, Hezbollah is like a
conventional army,” said Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese army general who
teaches at the American University of Beirut.
[In blow to Hezbollah, senior commander killed in Syria]
Israel fought the first Lebanon war in 1982 against the Palestine Liberation
Organization, a conflict that saw Israel occupy southern Lebanon and lay siege
to Beirut. Hezbollah arose during that war. The second Lebanon war broke out in
July 2006 after Hezbollah abducted a pair of Israeli soldiers on the border.
Ten years ago, Hezbollah fired 4,000 short-range, relatively crude rockets at
Israel, about 100 a day, killing some 50 Israeli civilians. Today, the group has
100,000 rockets, including thousands of more accurate mid-range weapons with
larger warheads capable of striking anywhere in Israel, including Jerusalem and
Tel Aviv, according to Israeli army commanders and military analysts in Israel
and Lebanon.
Hezbollah poses a far greater threat to Israel than it did 10 years ago. The
challenges posed by Islamist militant movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip are
almost trivial by comparison, Israeli senior commanders say.
Earlier this year, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot
called Hezbollah Israel’s “main enemy” now that Iran’s nuclear ambitions may
have been delayed by a decade or more.
Whether Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets and the overwhelming retaliatory response
promised by Israel serves as a dual deterrent is one of those questions that can
never be answered — but probably keeps commanders on both sides awake at night.
In Israel’s far north, Misgav Am kibbutz sits on a hilltop above the Lebanon
border. There is a popular overlook. There is a gift shop for the tour buses.
[How the Syrian revolt went so horribly, tragically wrong]
On a sunny morning, an Israeli army colonel stood on the hill and pointed toward
Lebanese villages at his feet.
“You see villas, red tile roofs, summer homes. You don’t see soldiers in
uniforms. They don’t wear uniforms. It looks nice and peaceful, right?” said the
commander of a paratrooper reserve brigade, who spoke on the condition of
anonymity because he is serving on active duty on the Lebanon border.
“I see rocket rooms, weapons caches, underground compounds,” he said. “I can
pinpoint to you, below, a house with washing on the line that is a Hezbollah
outpost.”
Israeli military leaders say Hezbollah has spent the past decade transforming
hundreds of villages in southern Lebanon into covert fire bases with hidden
launch pads, many rigged to operate by remote.
In briefings with reporters in Tel Aviv, Israeli military intelligence officers
in the past year have begun to show aerial photographs of villages in
Hezbollah’s southern stronghold.
A photograph of Muhaybib, a town south of here, is covered with red squares
marking the placement of what the Israelis say are command posts, anti-tank
positions, tunnels and launch pads. Israel says there are 90 buildings in the
village of 1,100 people and that 35 buildings are being used by Hezbollah.
The message is implicit: This is a target list.
The Israeli commanders in Tel Aviv and here on the Lebanon border may be issuing
propaganda as a warning to Hezbollah. Both sides do talk to each other through
the media, yet there is broad agreement in Washington, Jerusalem and Beirut that
another Lebanon war could be devastating, especially for civilians.
“Hezbollah is not a group or a organization or a movement. It’s an army. A big
terrorist army,” said the paratrooper commander, who is a veteran of the 2006
Lebanon war. “We understand that people here find themselves in the middle. The
next war will be a terrible war. I think they understand, too, that the next war
will be different.”
Speaking publicly, the Israeli generals promise that if Hezbollah launches mass
strikes against Israeli cities, Israel will be compelled to respond, similarly,
with 10 times as much force. The commanders say they cannot allow Israeli cities
to face 1,000 Hezbollah rockets a day.
Historians say the 2006 war came as a surprise for both sides. Hezbollah
captured two Israeli soldiers at the border, which sparked a sustained aerial
and ground war by Israeli forces — and tough resistance by Hezbollah.
Both claimed victory, but neither won. In Israel, the 2006 Lebanon war is widely
viewed by Israelis as a military failure. Hezbollah boasted that it had stood
toe-to-toe with the most powerful army in the Middle East, but the widespread
destruction and civilian deaths were unpopular.
[Israel to launch one of world’s most advanced missile defense systems]
As the 10-year anniversary approached, both Hezbollah and Israel stressed that
they do not want another war — even as both declared themselves ready for one.
“Israel knows Hezbollah has missiles and rockets that can strike anywhere in its
territory,” the group’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, said in a speech delivered by
video in February.
Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah rockets could strike ammonia plants at the port
in Haifa in any future fight, saying that the damage would be equivalent to an
atomic bomb and could lead to the deaths of 800,000 people.
“Haifa is just one of many examples,” Nasrallah said. “The leaders of Israel
understand that the resistance has the ability to cover the entirety of occupied
Palestine with missiles. We must keep this capability because it acts as a
deterrent for the third Lebanon war.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday said, “If the quiet is
kept, those facing us will enjoy quiet.” Then he warned that Hezbollah
aggression would be met by “an iron fist.”
Today, Hezbollah has lost some of its previous luster because of its decision to
fight for Assad in a war that became deeply sectarian, Shiite against Sunni.
Going to Syria might have turned Nasrallah from “a hero to a zero” for many in
the Arab world, said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic
Affairs.
“But the Syria war also emboldened them and sharpened his military skills,” he
said. “Hezbollah may be tempted to engage Israel in what it hopes is a limited
war to recover their prestige.”
Simon Abu Fadel, a political analyst in Lebanon, predicts that in the event of
war Hezbollah would try to inflict heavy damage on Israeli cities, power plants
and airports to degrade national morale.
“In case of a new war with Israel, Hezbollah’s missiles would be painful to
Israel,” he said. “However, the damage would be far less than what Israeli
airstrikes could do to Hezbollah and Lebanon.”
“It is not a win-and-lose game,” Fadel said. “It is a mutual exchange of bombing
and destruction.”
**Suzan Haidamous in Beirut contributed to this report.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/ten-years-after-last-lebanon-war-israel-warns-next-one-will-be-far-worse/2016/07/23/58d7a6ca-4388-11e6-a76d-3550dba926ac_story.html?postshare=2011469371023467&tid=ss_tw-bottom
Is Jibran Bassil destroying
Lebanon’s FPM party?
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf
News/July 24/16
Son-in-law of founder Aoun, Bassil is accused of nepotism and intolerance.
Beirut: Lebanon’s pro-Syrian Free Patriotic Movement seems to be facing an
internal crisis as key officials of the party face mounting criticism from
within. Jibran Bassil, Lebanon’s maverick foreign minister and also son-in-law
of FPM founder Michel Aoun, has borne the brunt of criticism. Aoun, who presided
over the FPM from 2005 to 2015, turned party reigns over to his son-in-law,
Bassil. Though the FPM enjoys significant backing from Lebanese Christians, it
seems to be on the brink of internal collapse. The FPM, as a whole, is being
broadly criticised as a party that no longer respects its own rules and
regulations but kowtows to Bassil’s every whim.
Some within the party have expressed concern that Bassil is only after enhancing
his own power at the expense of abandoning democratic practices and forcing his
fellow party members into submission. Many FPM members worry that Bassil seized
control of the party despite earlier pledges to consult and share power within
the politburo, while several fear that this type of consolidation will increase
the number of dissidents, which will sharply weaken the FPM in the forthcoming
2017 parliamentary elections. It is no longer tolerated to speak against him in
public and FPM members Naim Aoun, Ziad Abs, and Tony Nasrallah were all
reprimanded after voicing their opinions.
Aoun, a nephew of the founder, was called before an FPM disciplinary tribunal
allegedly because he criticised Bassil during a television interview on July 16.
A defiant Aoun, challenged the FPM to open his disciplinary hearing to all party
members, although this was unlikely to occur as he blamed the current president,
Bassil, for operating without any consideration for due process. Abs was also
singled out apparently because he wished to run for the party office against the
president’s wishes. Nasrallah — a man who fought alongside General Aoun against
the Syrians during the latter’s three-decades-long occupation of the country —
was reprimanded for publishing a scathing article that Bassil did not approve
of. Bassil’s rise to power has been largely viewed as nepotism as he never held
a parliamentary post and has relatively little political experience.
http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/lebanon/is-jibran-bassil-destroying-lebanon-s-fpm-party-1.1866879
Aoun will never reach presidency:
Amine Gemayel
The Daily Star/July 24/16
BEIRUT: Former Kataeb Party leader Amine Gemayel Sunday criticized Lebanese
Forces head Samir Geagea’s ongoing support for MP Michel Aoun’s presidential
candidacy, saying Geagea knew the latter’s chances at the presidency were slim.
“Geagea knows it is impossible for Aoun to reach the presidency, meaning he is
providing a cover for the (presidential) void. All of Aoun’s specifications do
not meet Geagea’s (national) struggle,” Gemayel said to Voice of Lebanon 100.5
FM. Aoun, head of the parliamentary Change and Reform Bloc, is supported by his
war-time foe Geagea and Hezbollah. The other presidential candidate, Marada
Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh, is mainly backed by the Future Movement. The
endorsements of Aoun and Frangieh by their long-time rivals has shifted the
traditional alliances in the country and created a deep division within the
so-called March 8 and March 14 coalitions.
Kataeb Party leader Sami Gemayel, son of Amine, has said that his party will not
vote for anyone in the rival March 8 alliance, which both Aoun and Frangieh are
either affiliated or belong to. He has also criticized the ongoing boycott of
parliamentary sessions to elect a president by Aoun's MPs, Hezbollah and the
Marada Movement. “Geagea’s support for Aoun, despite knowing the latter has no
hope, came in response to Future Movement leader Saad Hariri’s support for
Frangieh,” Gemayel added. Geagea has, on several occasions, denied that this was
the reason he endorsed Aoun, saying that his move was planned well before his
long-time ally Hariri officially announced he would be supporting Frangieh in
February this year. “With everyone simply knowing that it is impossible for Aoun
to become president, but accepting to negotiate (over the presidency), is an
affirmation of the vacuum, disruption and disastrous situation we are living in
on a Christian, constitutional and democratic level without any account,”
Gemayel said. The presidency in Lebanon is reserved for a Maronite Christian.
The country has been without a head of state since May 2014 when the tenure of
Michel Sleiman ended.
Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 24-25/16
Turkey investigating people who say
coup attempt was hoax
By AP Istanbul Sunday, 24
July 2016/Turkish prosecutors are investigating people who have alleged on
social media that a July 15 coup attempt was a hoax carried out by the
government, the country’s justice minister said Sunday, reflecting what some
critics say are increasing restrictions on expression in the wake of the failed
rebellion by some military forces. Turkey also said it plans to hire more than
20,000 teachers to replace those who have been fired in a purge of suspected
coup plotters in schools and other institutions. Education Minister Ismet Yilmaz
said the new teachers will replace state educators who have been dismissed as
well as teachers in private schools with alleged links to Fethullah Gulen, a
US-based cleric who has denied Turkish accusations that he directed the coup
attempt that killed about 290 people. In other crackdown measures, Turkey has
disbanded the presidential guard after already detaining nearly 300 unit members
suspected of plotting against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and authorities
detained Muhammet Sait Gulen, a nephew of the cleric who lives in self-imposed
exile in Pennsylvania. Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said in an interview with
Turkey’s Kanal 7 television station Sunday that anyone who suggests the coup
attempt was staged likely had a role in the insurrection, which was defeated by
loyalist forces and pro-government protesters. There has been some internet
speculation that Erdogan engineered the unrest in order to rally support and
thereby increase his power, a conspiracy theory rejected by the government and
most commentators on Turkey's recent turbulence. “Just look at the people who
are saying on social media that this was theater, public prosecutors are already
investigating them. Most of them are losers who think it is an honor to die for
Fethullah Gulen’s command,” Bozdag said.Turkey has declared a three-month state
of emergency to restore security following the coup attempt, granting Erdogan
the power to impose decrees without parliamentary approval. More than 13,000
people, including nearly 9,000 soldiers, 2,100 judges and prosecutors and 1,485
police, have been detained, according to the president. In addition, Erdogan
said, the government has closed and seized the assets of 15 universities, 934
other schools, 109 student dormitories, 19 unions, 35 medical institutions as
well as numerous other associations and foundations suspected of links to
Gulen’s movement. Turkey wants the United States to extradite Gulen. US
President Barack Obama has said there is a legal process for extradition and has
encouraged Turkey to present evidence.
Syrian refugee kills
one, wounds two with machete in Germany '
BERLIN - A 21-year-old Syrian refugee killed a woman with a machete and injured
two other people on Sunday before being arrested in the southern German city of
Reutlingen, a police spokesman said. The asylum-seeking Syrian man had been
involved in previous incidents causing injuries to other people, he said. The
spokesman had no immediate information on when the man arrived in Germany, or
when the previous incidents took place. Be the first to know - Join our Facebook
page.The assailant was apparently acting alone, the police official said. "There
is no danger to anyone else at this time," he told Reuters. No further details
were immediately available. It was the fourth act of violence against civilians
in western Europe - and the third in southern Germany - in 10 days. On Friday, a
deranged 18-year-old Iranian-German who was obsessed with mass killings shot
dead nine people in Munich before turning his gun on himself as police
approached. On July 18, a 17-year-old youth who had sought asylum in Germany was
shot dead by police after wounding four people from Hong Kong, some of them
severely, with an axe on a train and injuring a local resident near the city of
Wuerzburg. Four days before, a Tunisian delivery man drove a large truck into
crowds celebrating Bastille Day in the French Riviera city of Nice, killing 84
people. The Islamic State militant group claimed responsibility for both the
Wuerzburg and Nice attacks. German police said the Munich gunman had no
connection with militant Islam or the issue of refugees in Germany
Saudis in rare Israel visit, meet
senior Foreign Ministry official
Ynetnews/AFP/July 24/16
Retired Saudi general Anwar Eshki in Jerusalem, reportedly leading delegation of
businessmen and academics promoting 2002 Arab peace initative; he is reported to
have met with COGAT. The head of a rare Saudi delegation to Israel and the
West Bank met a senior Israeli government official during his trip, the Foreign
Ministry told AFP on Sunday. Foreign Ministry spokesman Emmanuel Nahshon said
the meeting between retired Saudi general Anwar Eshki and ministry Director
General Dore Gold took place at the prestigious King David hotel in west
Jerusalem but did not give further details.
Israeli media reported that Eshki was leading a delegation of "businessmen and
academics" on a mission to promote a stalled Saudi-led 2002 Arab peace
initiative.He reportedly met with Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, head of the COGAT,
military body that coordinates Israeli activities in the West Bank and Gaza, and
talked Friday in the West Bank to a group of Israeli opposition MKs. Israel and
Saudi Arabia have never had diplomatic relations but there have been media
reports of intelligence-sharing in the face of shared concerns about Iran and
the Islamic State group. Eshki and Gold shared a platform in June last year at
the Washington headquarters of the Council on Foreign Relations and "met to
discuss opportunities and challenges in the Middle East," the council said on
its website at the time. "Their speeches focused on the danger Iran posed to
their countries, and they revealed that they had been in secret discussions for
a year, and had now decided to go public about their talks," it added. Army
Radio on Sunday aired an Arabic telephone interview with Eshki, chairman of the
Jeddah-based Middle East Center for Strategic and Legal Studies, in which he
denied that his country had security links with the Jewish state.
"To my knowledge there is no cooperation in the struggle against terrorism," he
said. He said that Israel would only be able to make peace with the Arab world
when it had resolved the conflict with the Palestinians, in accordance with the
2002 Arab proposal. It calls for Israel to withdraw from the disputed
territories and resolve the issue of refugees with the Palestinians, leading to
the creation of a Palestinian state, in exchange for normalized relations with
Arab countries. "Peace will not come from Arab countries, but the Palestinians
and the implementation of the Arab peace plan," Eshki said.
The radio quoted him as saying the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "is not the
cause of terrorism, but it provides a breeding ground for conflict in the
region."Egypt and Jordan are the only two Arab nations to have made peace with
Israel.
Saudi Foreign Minister: Iran regime
cannot escape the evidence of its aggression
Sunday, 24 July/2016/NCRI - At an event about terrorism organized by the Belgian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Brussels, on 21 July, Saudi Arabia's Foreign
Minister Adel Al-Jubeir responded to a statement from the Iranian regime’s
General Consul. Al- Jubeir pointed out the role of the mullahs’ regime in acts
of international terrorism.
Parts of his remarks which were aired by Al-Arabiya are as follows:
The Honourable Consul from Iran did not say anything that is based in fact.
Doesn't the Iranian constitution say "export the revolution"? Didn't Iran create
Hezbollah? Didn't Iran attack more than a dozen embassies in Iran in violation
of all international laws? We didn't attack them. Iran did.
Didn't Iran manage, plan and execute the 1996 Khobar Towers attack against the
American marines? Yes, they did. The control officer was Brigadier-General
Sharifi, your military attaché in Bahrain. The bomb maker was Hezbollah. The
explosives came from the Bekaa Valley. The top three leaders of the plot escaped
and have been living in Iran ever since. Isn't that sheltering terrorists? One
of them was captured last year in Lebanon with an Iranian passport, not a Saudi
passport, even though he's a Saudi citizen. Isn't that aiding and abetting
terrorists? We didn't make this up.
The order to blow up three housing compounds in Riyadh in 2003 was made by Al
Qaeda's chief of operations while he was in Iran. We have the phone conversation
on tape. We didn't make this up.
Ronald Reagan used to say that facts are stubborn things. You can't get around
the fact that Hezbollah is a terrorist organisation. Attacking embassies is very
clear - they don't just blow themselves up. Somebody does it. Diplomats don't
commit suicide by shooting themselves three times. Somebody is responsible.
Iranian agents have been linked to terrorist attacks in Europe and South
America. We didn't make this up.
This is the world. This is evidence.
We wish and hope that Iran, a great nation, can be a great neighbour to us but
it takes two to tango. It takes willingness to give up this expansionist,
aggressive policy and return to international norms of behaviour if you want
people to deal with you. And our hand is extended to Iran and has been for 35
years. But what we get in return is diplomats killed, embassies blown up,
terrorists. We have Iranian agents captured in Saudi Arabia for plotting
terrorist attacks. We stopped four shipments of weapons that Iran was trying to
smuggle to the Houthis in Yemen. We have explosives that Iran was trying to
smuggle into Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait.
This is not fiction and this is not child's play. This is aggressive behaviour.
This is unacceptable behaviour. This is behaviour which violates all norms of
international behaviour and international law. That's why Iran is designated as
a state sponsor of terrorism and that's why Iran is sanctioned for support of
terrorism - not by us, but by the international community.
So, could it be that the whole world is wrong and Iran is right? Could it be
that international law which says peaceful relations and non-interference in the
affairs of others is wrong and Iran's approach of aggressively pursuing your
objective irrespective of how you do it is correct? I don't think so.
So, if you want a Saudi official to not be critical of Iran, behave in a way
that doesn't expose you to criticism. And, so far, your history has been one of
death and destruction, disregard for international law and disregard for
principles that have existed since the advent of nations, which is good
neighbourliness and non-interference in the affairs of others.
Iran regime arrests more than
50 youths in party raid
Saturday, 23 July 2016/NCRI - More than 50 young Iranians have been arrested by
the regime's suppressive state security forces at a party near the Iranian
capital Tehran. The Tasnim news agency, affiliated to the regime's terrorist
Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, reported on Friday (July 22) the arrest of more
than 50 young men and women at a party in the town of Davamand, east of Tehran.
Tasnim quoted Mojtaba Vahedi, the head of the regime's judiciary in Damavand, as
saying that the organizers of the party had invited people to attend via online
social networks. Vahedi added security forces initially monitored the social
sphere and after carrying out the necessary investigations obtained a warrant to
clamp down on the party and arrest the party-goers. Judicial files have been
opened against those arrested at the party, Vahedi said. He added: "Families
must be more vigilant regarding their children to make sure they do not end up
in such circumstances." Commenting on this development, Shahin Gobadi of the
Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)
said: “The clerical regime has never been so isolated at home and loathed by the
Iranian people, in particular by the youth and women. As such, it is resorting
to more and more repressive measures to confront this growing trend. This once
again proves that the notion of moderation under Hassan Rouhani is a total myth.
But it also indicates the vulnerable and shaky state of a regime that cannot
even tolerate private festivities of the people, particularly the youth. It is
becoming more evident that the mullahs are totally paranoid of any social
gathering in fear of a popular uprising.”Some 35 young men and women were
flogged in May for taking part in a mixed-gender party after their graduation
ceremony near Qazvin city, some 140 kilometers northwest of Tehran, the regime's
Prosecutor in the city said on May 26. Ismaeil Sadeqi Niaraki, a notorious
mullah, said a special court session was held after all the young men and women
at the party were rounded up, the Mizan news agency, affiliated to the
fundamentalist regime's judiciary, reported on May 26.
"After we received information that a large number of men and women were
mingling in a villa in the suburbs of Qazvin ... all the participants at the
party were arrested," he said. Niaraki added that the following morning every
one of those detained received 99 lashes as punishment by the so-called
'Morality Police.' According to Niaraki, given the social significance of
mixed-gender partying, "this once again required a firm response by the
judiciary in quickly reviewing and implementing the law.""Thanks God that the
police questioning, investigation, court hearing, verdict and implementation of
the punishment all took place in less than 24 hours," Niaraki added. The
regime’s prosecutor claimed that the judiciary would not tolerate the actions of
“law-breakers who use excuses such as freedom and having fun in birthday parties
and graduation ceremonies.”Similar raids have been carried out on mixed-gender
parties across Iran in recent weeks.
Iran destroys 100,000 satellite dishes in morality-driven crackdown
Jerusalem Post/July 24/16/ As part of its widespread ban on illegal devices,
Iran collected and destroyed 100,000 satellite dishes and receivers on Sunday,
at a ceremony in Tehran, AFP reported. Reza Naghdi, the head of Iran's Basij
militia, holds that the devices are morally damaging. AFP quoted Naghdi as
saying, "The truth is that most satellite channels... deviate the society's
morality and culture... What these televisions really achieve is increased
divorce, addiction and insecurity in society."One million Iranians, he added,
had already turned in their satellite dishes voluntarily. Some Iranian
politicians, such as Culture Minister Ali Jannati and President Hassan Rouhani,
have openly stated that the ban is useless and counter-productive, as most
Iranians are in violation of this law.
Top Arab Diplomats Vow to Defeat
'Terror'
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/July 24/16/Arab foreign ministers vowed on
Saturday to "defeat terrorism," as they gathered for a regional summit just over
a week after a jihadist-claimed truck attack in the French Riviera left 84
people dead. In a statement, they also called for a "definitive solution" to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as Arab League heads of state prepared to meet in
the Mauritanian capital on Monday and Tuesday. Omar Bashir, the Sudanese
president who is wanted by the world's top criminal court, is expected to attend
the summit. "We must defeat terrorism, it's a priority," Egyptian Foreign
Minister Sameh Shoukry said as the meeting began. His Mauritanian counterpart
Isselkou Ould Ahmed Izidbih called on Arab states to coordinate more closely
with African nations in order to achieve this goal. The ministers also agreed to
support "all (initiatives) that can help to end the crises of the Arab world,
especially the Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni conflicts", a statement said.And they
welcomed a French and Egyptian initiative to help revive dormant
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and
Saudi King Salman are both expected to attend the upcoming summit. Bashir,
wanted for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity by The Hague-based
International Criminal Court, is also expected in Nouakchott. However, as
Mauritania has not ratified the ICC's Rome Statute, chances that it will hand
him over to the body are slim. Despite facing charges over the Darfur conflict,
which claimed more than 300,000 lives, Bashir has continued to travel, including
to some nations that have ratified the treaty setting up the ICC. Controversy
erupted last year when the South African government did not arrest Bashir when
he attended an African Union summit in Johannesburg.
8 Dead, Over 20 Hurt as
Rockets Hit Heart of Damascus
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/July 24/16/Rebel rocket fire into Old Damascus on
Sunday killed at least eight people and wounded more than 20, the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights reported.The Britain-based monitor said the rockets
were fired from rebel positions on the outskirts of the capital and struck
several neighborhoods in the city center.
Saudi Executes Four Convicted of Murder
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/July 24/16/Saudi authorities executed four
citizens on Sunday convicted of killing six members of their tribe, the interior
ministry said.The killings took place due to a land dispute among members of the
Quthami tribe, the ministry said in a statement on the official SPA news agency.
The four, including three brothers, were executed in the western city of Taif,
bringing to 105 the number of death sentences carried out in the kingdom this
year. Saudi Arabia's growing use of the death penalty has prompted Amnesty
International to call for an "immediate" moratorium on the practice. The kingdom
imposes the death penalty for offenses including murder, drug trafficking, armed
robbery, rape and apostasy. Most people executed are beheaded with a sword. On
Thursday, authorities carried out the 100th execution of the year. "Saudi Arabia
is speeding along in its dogged use of a cruel and inhuman punishment, mindless
of justice and human rights," said Amnesty's Middle East and North Africa head
Philip Luther. "At this rate, the Kingdom's executioners will soon match or
exceed the number of people they put to death last year," he said. Amnesty says
the kingdom carried out at least 158 death sentences in 2015, making it the
third most prolific executioner after Iran and Pakistan. Amnesty's figures do
not include secretive China. "The Saudi Arabian authorities must immediately
establish an official moratorium on executions and abolish the death penalty
once and for all," Luther said. Murder and drug trafficking cases account for
the majority of Saudi executions, although 47 people were put to death for
"terrorism" offenses on a single day in January. They included prominent Shiite
cleric Nimr al-Nimr, whose execution prompted Iranian protesters to torch Saudi
diplomatic missions, triggering a diplomatic crisis between the two arch-rivals.
41 Migrant Bodies Wash Up on
Libya Beach
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/July 24/16/Volunteers have recovered the bodies of
41 presumed migrants that washed up on a Libyan beach, an official from the
coastal city of Sabratha said on Sunday. The bodies, found on Saturday on the
city's beach west of the capital Tripoli, were taken to the morgue for DNA
testing before being buried, the official said. "We think that these are people
who drowned five or six days ago," added the official who did not wish to be
identified. He said that normally one or two bodies a day were found and that 41
in just one day is "an exceptionally high number." The group of volunteers who
found the bodies was trained by Sabratha city council in mid-July to look for
victims of people smugglers, the official said. Illegal migration from Libya
booms in the summer months when the Mediterranean is generally calm and
traffickers pack unsafe boats with migrants desperate to start a new life in
Europe. People smugglers have taken advantage of the chaos gripping Libya since
the 2011 uprising that toppled and killed strongman Moammar Gadhafi to boost
their lucrative business. They cram migrants into boats that are small and
unsafe for the perilous journey to Italy just 300 kilometers (190 miles) from
Libya's shores. Thousands of migrants try each year to make the sea crossing but
many drown. More than 10,000 migrants bound for Europe, mostly sub-Saharan
Africans, have died or gone missing in the Mediterranean since 2014, according
to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
IS Suicide Bomber Kills at
Least 15 in Baghdad
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/July 24/16/A suicide bombing claimed by the
Islamic State group killed at least 15 people in a Shiite area of northern
Baghdad on Sunday, security and medical officials said. The bombing, which
struck near a checkpoint in the Kadhimiyah area, home to a major Shiite shrine,
also wounded at least 29 people, the officials said. IS issued a statement
claiming the attack, saying it targeted soldiers and pro-government
paramilitaries in the area. The jihadist group frequently carries out attacks on
security forces, and also often targets members of Iraq's Shiite Muslim
majority, whom it considers heretics. An IS suicide bomber struck shoppers in
Baghdad's central Karrada district earlier this month, killing 292 people. The
group also claimed an attack on a Shiite shrine in Balad, north of the capital,
that left 40 dead a few days later.IS overran large areas north and west of
Baghdad in 2014, but Iraqi forces have since regained significant ground and are
conducting operations to set the stage for the battle to recapture Mosul, the
last IS-held city in the country. The jihadists have responded to the
battlefield setbacks by striking civilians, and experts have warned there may be
more such attacks as the jihadists continue to lose ground.
Possible that Erdogan
engineered coup,' former Pentagon official tells ‘Post’
Jerusalem Post/July 24/16
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a “megalomaniac” and could have manufactured
the July 15 coup d’état attempt to rehabilitate his domestic image, Harold
Rhode, a former longtime Pentagon official and Turkey specialist, told The
Jerusalem Post. “Giving into the Russians and Israelis in order to repair
relations with them was humiliating” for him in the eyes of many Turks and
people in the Middle East, said Rhode in an interview on Sunday. Thus, Erdogan’s
contrived victory over the supposed coup attempt shows the world that he is
still powerful, said Rhode. “It is quite possible that Erdogan engineered and
then defeated the supposed coup so that he could redeem his honor,” he argued.
According to this scenario, Turks and other Middle Easterners would understand
this as a great victory. “Turks have the tendency to see themselves as either
the most important force in the world or the weakest, and this can fluctuate,”
he explained, regarding the Turkish mentality.
“Turkey is a land of conspiracies, even among the most highly educated people,”
he added. “Conspiracy is part of the mentality of fatalism common in Turkey and
in the wider Middle East. Sunni fatalism is a belief that Allah determines
everything, and that there is nothing man can do to change things.”
Turkish culture belongs to the Middle East, not Europe, and therefore, trying to
understand Turkish behavior from a Western prospective is inaccurate, he said.
Furthermore, Ottoman history and other Islamic entities are full of examples of
ruthless actions taken by rulers to stay in power.
Asked if this scenario of staging the coup occurred, how it could be kept
secret, Rhode responded that even Turkish friends from outside the country are
petrified to even discuss this question. For example, the Turkish government
called on academics abroad to return to the country. “Do you think something
nice awaits them?,” quipped Rhode, who is currently a visiting professor at
Ariel University and a senior fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
“In the Middle East, truth is a malleable commodity and regimes often invent
whatever evidence they need.”
Regarding Erdogan’s accusation that former ally and US-based Turkish cleric
Fethullah Gulen orchestrated the plot, the former Pentagon official said that he
is very old and doubts that he could carry out something like this from
Pennsylvania. Furthermore, he noted, “the Americans can monitor Gulen’s
activities in Pennsylvania and know what he is doing. They would therefore know
if he were involved in the supposed coup.” “Something smells” regarding the
narrative pushed by the Ankara government, he continued, adding that the
evidence needs to be evaluated because it is “perhaps invented.” As to how the
Turkish authorities moved so quickly to arrest and dismiss tens of thousands of
people from government and other institutions following the coup attempt, he
said it is likely that lists and plans had been prepared before the abortive
coup. If these operations against suspected individuals were not prepared
beforehand, “then Erdogan and his cohorts are intellectual giants, putting this
together in such a short time. This would require abilities not seen by any
other people on earth,” said Rhode. Islamist Erdogan seeks to reestablish the
Ottoman caliphate as a step on the road to Islamic world dominion, said Rhode.
The oft-repeated Erdogan quote bears repeating – “democracy is a train that you
get off once you reach your destination.” “US President Barak Obama talks about
following the democratic way, but the Turkish president is using democracy as a
tool to achieve his goal.” It also should be remembered, he concluded, that
according to multiple surveys, most Turks see themselves as Muslims first and
Turks second, which helps explain the support Erdogan has garnered since the
coup attempt and in past elections.
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 24-25/16
BBC Scrubs 'Ali' from Munich
Killer's Name
Raheem Kassam/Cross-posted
from Breitbart/July 24/16
Originally published under the title "BBC Scrubs 'Ali' From Munich Killer's Name
On TV, In Articles, AND On Social Media."
The BBC has unilaterally chosen not to report the Munich attacker's full name,
in what appears to be an attempt to scrub any Muslim or Islamic heritage link to
its coverage of the incident.
Most sources at this point suggest that Ali David Sonboly – the Munich attacker
who targeted children and killed nine yesterday – is not connected to radical
Islam.
But the BBC has gone to extraordinary lengths to try to keep any reference to
his heritage out of its coverage, opting to name him only as "David Sonboly."
Other news organisations including the Wall Street Journal, Independent, Daily
Mail, and Sky News named the attacker as "Ali David Sonboly" or "David Ali
Sonboly." CNN even referred to him simply as "Ali Sonboly."
Within an hour, the BBC had changed its references to the culprit to 'David
Sonboly.'
But the BBC had different ideas, opting to refer to him in their online news
coverage, national and international broadcast coverage, and on social media
(above) as "David Sonboly."
At 3pm UK time on Saturday, the BBC made reference to the killer as "Ali Sonboly."
Within one hour however, the BBC had changed its references to the now dead
culprit to "David Sonboly." At 6:31pm, the news bulletin on the BBC News Channel
referred to him as "David Sonboly" though at 6:32pm their correspondent in
Germany referred to him as "David Ali Sonboly."
The BBC's online coverage says, at the time of publication [emphasis added]:
The 18-year-old gunman who killed nine people in Munich was obsessed with mass
shootings but had no known links to the Islamic State group, German police say.
Written material on such attacks was found in his room. Munich's police chief
spoke of links to the massacre by Norway's Anders Behring Breivik.
The gunman, who had dual German-Iranian nationality, later killed himself. His
name has not been officially released but he is being named locally as David
Sonboly. He had a 9mm Glock pistol and 300 bullets in his rucksack.
Breitbart London has reached out to the BBC for comment, and has asked who took
the decision to scrub the name "Ali" from the attacker's name across all its
platforms. We have not yet received a response.
Update 1520 EST: The BBC has now changed its article following my expose of
their attempted cover up. Read more here.
*Raheem Kassam is a Shillman-Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum and
editor-in-chief of Breitbart London.
http://www.meforum.org/blog/2016/07/bbc-scrubs-ali-from-munich-killer-name
Liwa
al-Imam al-Mahdi: A Syrian Hezbollah Formation
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi/Middle East Forum/July 24/16
The Syria Comment version of his article has several additional photos and
captions.
Fighters posing with the flag of Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi. Bottom: "The Imam Ali
Battalion. The Islamic Resistance in Syria." Note the classic arm and rifle
associated with Hezbollah. Top: "Indeed the party of God are the ones who
overcome" (Qur'an 5:56), a play on "Hezbollah" (Party of God).
The Syrian civil war has seen the rise of a number of formations that promote
the idea of building a native Syrian Muqawama Islamiya ('Islamic Resistance')
and Hezbollah. Examples include Quwat al-Ridha (recruiting mainly from Shi'a in
the Homs area), the National Ideological Resistance (based in Tartous/Masyaf
area), the Ja'afari Force (recruiting mainly from Damascene Shi'a) and al-Ghalibun.
Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi (the Imam Mahdi Brigade), referring to the twelfth Shi'i
Imam, is another group along these lines. For comparison, the National
Ideological Resistance also has the label Jaysh al-Imam al-Mahdi (The Imam Mahdi
Army).
Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi appears to have at least two sub-components: the Imam Ali
Battalion and the Special Operations al-Hadi Battalion. The al-Hadi Battalion
claims at least two squadrons: the first led by "al-Saffah" and the second led
by "Abu Ali Karar."
The information available on Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi through social media is
patchy at best, but I was able to speak to the commander of the Imam Ali
Battalion, who goes by the name of al-Hajj Waleed and is from Ba'albek in the
Beqaa Valley in Lebanon.
Left: Abu Hadi, the leader of the al-Hadi Battalion. His real name appears to be
Rani Jaber and he is Syrian (from Deraa). Right: Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi fighters
prepare for "the battle of the north" (according to the source posting this
photo in early June), likely referring to fighting in Aleppo.
According to al-Hajj Waleed (who is a member of Hezbollah), Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi
was set up two years ago by Hezbollah and has recruits from all of Syria.
Of course, this latter assertion is a fairly standard rhetorical line. Private
Facebook accounts run by those associated with Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi largely
point to origins in western Syria.
The commander added that the group has participated in a number of battles,
including Deraa, Quneitra, Ghouta, Aleppo and the Ithiriya-Raqqa route. Some of
these operations (e.g. fighting in south Aleppo countryside and positions on the
Ithiriya hills) have been mentioned on social media.
In total, Liwa al-Imam al-Mahdi's contribution to the fighting in Syria seems
similar in scale to that of the Ja'afari Force and the National Ideological
Resistance. Al-Hajj Waleed gave his toll of killed ('martyrs') and wounded at 25
and 55 respectively.
Thus, the military capabilities of these groups should not be exaggerated, but
it is apparent how Hezbollah is trying to project influence into Syria through
the creation of multiple formations and brands in order to recruit Syrians.
**Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a research fellow at Middle East Forum's Jihad Intel
project.
http://www.meforum.org/6134/liwa-imam-mahdi-syrian-hezbollah
Armenian genocide: To
continue to deny the truth of this mass human cruelty is close to a criminal lie
Robert Fisk/Independent/July 24/16
I dug the bones and skulls of massacred Armenians out of the Syrian desert with
my own hands in 1992.
At seven o’clock on Thursday evening, a group of very brave men and women will
gather in Taksim Square, in the centre of Istanbul, to stage an unprecedented
and moving commemoration. The men and women will be both Turkish and Armenian,
and they will be gathering together to remember the 1.5 million Christian
Armenian men, women and children slaughtered by the Ottoman Turks in the 1915
genocide. That Armenian Holocaust – the direct precursor of the Jewish Holocaust
– began 100 years ago this Thursday, only half a mile from Taksim, when the
government of the time rounded up hundreds of Armenian intellectuals and writers
from their homes and prepared them for death and the annihilation of their
people.
The Pope has already annoyed the Turks by calling this wicked act – the most
terrible massacre of the First World War – a genocide, which it was: the
deliberate and planned attempt to liquidate a race of people. The Turkish
government – but, thank God, not all the Turkish people – have maintained their
petulant and childish denial of this fact of history on the grounds that the
Armenians were not killed according to a plan (the old “chaos of war” nonsense),
and that the word “genocide” was anyway coined only after the Second World War
and thus cannot apply to them. On that basis, the First World War wasn’t the
First World War because it wasn’t called the First World War at the time!
Two thoughts come to mind, then, on this centenary of the butchery, mass rape
and child killing of 1915. The first is that for a powerful government of a
strong – and courageous – European and Nato nation such as Turkey to continue to
deny the truth of this mass human cruelty is close to a criminal lie. More than
100,000 Turks have discovered that they have Armenian grandmothers or
great-grandmothers – the very women kidnapped, enslaved, raped or converted on
the death marches from Anatolia into the northern Syrian desert – and Turkish
historians themselves (alas, not enough of them) are now producing the most
detailed documentary evidence of the sinister Talat Pasha’s extermination orders
issued from what was then Constantinople.
Yet anyone who opposes the government’s denial of genocide is still vilified.
For almost a quarter of a century, I have been receiving mail from Turks about
my own writing on the genocide. It started when I dug the bones and skulls of
massacred Armenians out of the Syrian desert with my own hands in 1992. A few
correspondents wanted to express their support. Most letters were little short
of pernicious. And I rather fear that the continued denial by the Turkish
government could be as dangerous to Turkey as it is outrageous for the Armenian
descendants of the dead. I remember an elderly Armenian lady describing to me
how she saw Turkish militiamen piling living babies on top of each other and
setting fire to them. Her mother told her that their cries were the sound of
their souls going up to heaven. Isn’t this – and the enslavement of women –
exactly what Isis is perpetrating against its ethnic enemies just across the
Turkish border today? Denial is fraught with peril.
And let’s ask ourselves what would happen if the present German government was
to claim that any demand to recognise the “events” of 1939-1945 – in which six
million Jews were murdered – as a genocide was “Jewish propaganda” and
“mutilating history and law”. Yet that was pretty much what the Turkish
government said when the EU last week asked it to recognise the Armenian
genocide. The EU, the foreign ministry said in Ankara, had succumbed to
“Armenian propaganda” about the “events” of 1915, and was “mutilating history
and law”. If Germany had adopted such unforgivable words about the Jewish
Holocaust, you would not have been able to see through the Berlin exhaust fumes
as the world’s ambassadors headed for the airport.
Yet the very day after the brave little commemoration scheduled for Taksim
Square this week, the great and the good of the Western world will be gathering
with Turkish leaders a few miles to the west of Istanbul to honour the dead of
Gallipoli, Mustafa Kemal’s extraordinary – and brilliant – 1915 victory over the
Allies in the First World War. How many of them will remember that among the
Turkish heroes fighting for Turkey at Gallipoli was a certain Armenian Captain
Torossian – whose own sister would soon die in the genocide?
I plan to report on the commemoration next week in the company of Turkish
friends. But the second thought that comes to mind – and Armenian friends must
forgive me – is that I’m not terribly interested in what the Armenians say and
do on this 100th anniversary. I want to know what they plan to do on the day
after the day of the 100th anniversary. The Armenian survivors – those who could
remember – are now all dead. In about 30 years, Jews around the world will
suffer the same deep sadness as their own last survivors disappear from the
world of living testimony. But the dead live on, especially when their
victimhood is denied – a curse that forces them to die again and again.
Armenians must surely now compile a list of the brave Turks who saved their
lives during their people’s persecution. There is at least one provincial
governor, and individual named Turkish soldiers and policemen, who risked their
own lives to save Armenians at this gruesome moment in Turkish history. Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s triumphalist prime minister, has spoken of his sorrow
for the Armenians, while continuing to deny the genocide. Would he dare to
refuse to sign an Armenian genocide book of commemoration listing the brave
Turks who tried to save their nation’s honour at its darkest hour?
I’ve been banging on about this idea to Armenians for years. I said the same to
Armenians in Detroit last week. Honour the good Turks. Alas, everyone claps. And
does nothing.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/armenian-genocide-to-continue-to-deny-the-truth-of-this-mass-human-cruelty-is-close-to-a-criminal-10188119.html
Unlike ISIS, Al-Qaeda Says It Cares about 'Social Justice' in America
Raymond Ibrahim/PJ
Media/July 24, 2016
Originally published on July 13 under the title "Once Again, Al-Qaeda Brands
Itself as Social Justice Warriors."
The "social justice" Al-Qaeda has in store for the world's aggrieved would be a
mixed bag.
After the Orlando massacre, when an armed Muslim murdered 49 people in a gay
nightclub, al-Qaeda published a guide urging more such "lone wolf" attacks –
with the added caveat that jihadists should exclusively target mainstream white
Americans.
According to the jihadi group's online publication "Inspire guide: Orlando
operation," killing homosexuals is "the most binding duty."
However, would-be jihadis are advised to "avoid targeting places and crowds
where minorities are generally found in America," and instead to target "areas
where the Anglo-Saxon community is generally concentrated."
In response, several pundits warned that al-Qaeda is shifting gears, somehow
trying to portray itself as a "social justice warrior."
In fact, al-Qaeda has long presented itself to the West in this manner.
Al-Qaeda has long presented itself as seeking social justice for Western
minorities.
These latest instructions are hardly new. Further, they help explain the real
differences between al-Qaeda and ISIS, and which stage of jihad they see
themselves in.
Although The Al Qaeda Reader documents al-Qaeda's dual approach -- preach
unrelenting jihad to Muslims, whine about grievances to Westerners -- a nearly
decade-old communique from al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is sufficient to
understand the strategy behind these latest instructions.
In that letter, Zawahiri spoke to the many "under-privileged" of the world:
That's why I want blacks in America, people of color, American Indians,
Hispanics, and all the weak and oppressed in North and South America, in Africa
and Asia, and all over the world, to know that when we wage jihad in Allah's
path, we aren't waging jihad to lift oppression from Muslims only; we are waging
jihad to lift oppression from all mankind, because Allah has ordered us never to
accept oppression, whatever it may be ... This is why I want every oppressed one
on the face of the earth to know that our victory over America and the Crusading
West -- with Allah's permission -- is a victory for them, because they shall be
freed from the most powerful tyrannical force in the history of mankind.
American blacks, however, were Zawahiri's primary targets. Zawahiri praised and
quoted from the convert to Islam, Malcolm X: "Anytime you beg another man to set
you free, you will never be free. Freedom is something you have to do for
yourself. The price of freedom is death."
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri (left) is fond of quoting Malcolm X.
The al-Qaeda leader also appealed to another potentially sympathetic population
-- environmentalists: "[The U.S.] went out and ruined for the entire world, the
atmosphere and climate with the gases emitted by its factories."
Years earlier, Osama bin Laden himself complained about the U.S. not signing the
Kyoto protocols: "You [the U.S.] have destroyed nature with your industrial
waste and gases more than any other nation in history."
What does this ostensibly disparate group of people -- "third-worlders,"
environmentalists, and disaffected American blacks -- have in common? They all
harbor anti-Western sentiments that can be appealed to for purposes of
exonerating al-Qaeda's jihad.
Now, al-Qaeda is again reaffirming that killing homosexuals is "the most binding
duty," but it's still best to continue targeting non-minorities in America --
"Anglo-Saxons" -- because they are so easy to demonize.
Zawahiri used the same strategy in Egypt in 2014. During a particularly brutal
period of Christian persecution -- dozens of churches were burned -- he
counseled Egypt's Muslims to stop attacking Coptic Christians. The al-Qaeda
leader, who on numerous occasions had exhibited his antipathy for Christians,
made clear that his directive was purely for PR purposes; he was concerned about
jihad's image in the West.
While agreeing to the most draconian of Sharia's tenets, al-Qaeda also knows
that many of these -- for example, the destruction of churches and subjugation
of "infidel" Christians -- need to be curtailed or hidden from the Western
world. Otherwise, al-Qaeda's efforts of portraying jihadis as "freedom fighters"
resisting an oppressive West risk being undermined.
Unlike al-Qaeda, ISIS is indifferent to Western opinion.
On the other hand, ISIS represents the unapologetic jihad, indifferent to
Western opinion.
By widely broadcasting its savage triumphalism in the name of Islam, ISIS
forfeits the "social warrior" card and instead plays the "strength" card. In
this manner ISIS has inspired hundreds of millions of Muslims, according to some
disturbing polls.
Al-Qaeda was born at a time when deceiving the West about the aims of the jihad
was deemed necessary; ISIS was born at a time when deceiving an already passive
West is no longer deemed important.
Time will tell which strategy works better.
*Raymond Ibrahim is a Judith Friedman Rosen fellow at the Middle East Forum and
a Shillman fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center.
Munich Shooting Exposes Media Double
Standard
A.J. Caschetta/Jihad
Watch/July 24/16
Though reluctant to speculate on motives when covering apparent Islamist
rampages, the mainstream media jumped on early reports suggesting that
Iranian-German teen Ali Sonboly (right) was a right-wing extremist.
Another shooting in Europe yesterday, this time in Germany, shocked the media
into action. When news broke of an active shooter who began killing people in
front of a McDonalds and then moved inside to the Olympia Shopping Center in
Munich, it looked like another ISIS attack. But something was different this
time.
Eyewitness reports began trickling in indicating that the shooter was heard
complaining about refugees, so the media shifted gear, dropping the usual
journalistic reticence when it comes to discussing a killer's motives. Many
seemed certain that this killer was finally part of the always-expected, but
never-quite-materializing, backlash against Muslims.
The same tendency was evident across the political spectrum on cable news
networks.
Fox News anchor Shepard Smith told his audience that social media was filled
with reports of the shooter shouting "I am a German" and "[expletive] the
foreigners." After mentioning how unreliable social media can be, he repeated
twitter posts about the shooter wearing "distinctive clothing," indicative of
right-wing, neo-Nazi types. In this case, it was the shooter's boots. Compare
this boldness to Smith's past reluctance to mention on air the names of killers
"with Muslim names" lest his audience jump to conclusions about their motives.
On CNN, Wolf Blitzer was confident enough to call the ongoing attack a
"terrorist situation." He noted that "millions of refugees...causing a huge
political issue" were "destabilizing German society" and suggested that a
"right-wing" anti-refugee event was underway. His guest, Massachusetts
congressman Adam Schiff (D), concurred that it was likely a right-wing attack.
Over at MSNBC, Chuck Todd wanted to talk about "the big picture" which led him
to "the refugee crisis" causing "anxiety and upheaval," and to a German society
"angry at Muslim presence." Todd went so far as to "draw a straight line from
Syrian refugees, to Brexit, to anxiety, to anger." He hypothesized how the
identity of the shooter might impact Angela Merkel's future: a Muslim shooter
would be detrimental, but a right-wing shooter could be shrugged off, perhaps
even advantageous to her image.
Much of the mainstream media salivates over the prospect of reporting on
right-wing terrorism.
With each passing moment as anchors, experts and guests awaited the German
authorities to begin their press conference, things got even stranger.
At MSNBC, Chris Matthews filled air time by surmising that Munich was in the
midst of a "Nativist Attack." Cal Perry, MSNBC's terrorism expert, bested him by
labeling it a "Xenophobic Attack." Perry expressed relief that the attack
"doesn't bear any of the similarities of ISIS attacks," and pointed out that it
was occurring on the "fifth anniversary of the Anders Breivik attack."
Meanwhile back at CNN, Erin Burnett's guest, retired Colonel Cedric Leighton,
cited a report that the shooter had what sounded like a "southern German accent"
and concluded that he was therefore not a refugee. "It's very clear to me,"
Leighton announced confidently, that the shooter "is not someone affiliated with
ISIS."
Juxtaposed with the trepidation and caution on display during the far more
common instances of jihadist violence, this eagerness to cover right-wing
terrorism betrayed a double standard that would have been hard to miss. It
brought to mind the early coverage of the movie theater shooting in Aurora,
Colorado. When reports came out that the killer was named James Holmes, ABC's
Brian Ross eagerly reported on air that a "Jim Holmes" of Aurora had recently
joined the Tea Party in Colorado.
Rather than being fearful of saying the wrong thing, or concluding too quickly
the significance of early reports, much of the media, especially the left,
salivates over the prospect of right-wing terrorism (real or imagined). It is
the raison d'etre of the Southern Poverty Law Center.
Many journalists still refuse to recognize the tell-tale signs of jihad terror,
even subtle ones like when a killer declares his allegiance to Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi to a 9-1-1 operator or engages in ritual beheading. But a surprising
number of journalists had no problem concluding that a German shooter who curses
foreigners must be a right-winger.
When authorities identified the shooter as a teenage German Iranian, the media's
mood changed quickly.
Also notable in the early coverage of the Munich shootings is what was not said.
There was no apparent compulsion to calm audiences by asking that they
rationally examine the statistics – after all, aren't 99% of all jack-booted
Germans who shout at foreigners really just peaceful, law abiding citizens?
When the German authorities finally told the world that the shooter was an
18-year old German Iranian from Munich, the mood changed quickly. And when it
was revealed that this killer too had shouted "Allahu akbar" (the jihad battle
cry), it was all too much.
So back they went to discussing Hillary Clinton's Vice Presidential pick and
analyzing the Republican convention speeches. False alarm.
** A.J. Caschetta is a Shillman-Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum and a
senior lecturer at the Rochester Institute of Technology.
Islamism Rises from Europe's Secularism
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/July 24, 2016
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8530/islamism-europe-secularism
In France,
the Socialist government imposed a "secularism charter" in every school, banning
Christianity from the educational system. Municipalities have already changed
the enrollment form for schoolchildren by eliminating the words "father" and
"mother", replacing them with "legal manager 1" and "legal manager 2". It is
George Orwell's "Newspeak".
After two major terror attacks in 2015, France, instead of promoting a cultural
"jihad" based on Western values, responded to Islamic fundamentalism with a
ridiculous "Day of Secularism" to be celebrated every 9th of December.
This narrow secularism has also prevented France from openly supporting Eastern
Christians under Islamist oppression.
The empty 13th century Oude Kerk church in Amsterdam is now used for exhibitions
and can be rented for gala dinners. In front of it there is "Sexyland", offering
"Live F*ck Shows", a coffee shop for drugs and an "Erotic Supermarket" for
dildos. For seven euros one can also visit the church.
On October 2000, in the sunny French city of Nice, the 105-member European
Convention drafted the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union.
Drawn up by the committee of former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing,
the document only referred to the "cultural, religious and humanist inheritance
of Europe". The European Parliament had rejected a proposal from Christian
Democrat MEPs and Pope John Paul II, to include in the text Europe's
"Judaeo-Christian roots".
In the 75,000-word Charter there is not a single mention of Christianity. Since
then, a wind of aggressive secularism has pervaded all EU policies. The European
Court of Human Rights, for example, asked to remove crucifixes from classrooms:
they were allegedly a threat to democracy.
The city of Nice -- where exactly sixteen years ago Europe's rulers decided to
eliminate the Judeo-Christian roots from the (never approved) EU Constitution --
has just witnessed the bloody manifestation of another religion: radical Islam.
"Nature abhors a vacuum": This is the truth to which our élites do not want to
listen; Islamism rises from what William McGurn, George W. Bush's speechwriter,
called "Europe's feckless secularism".
You can see it not only in Europe's churches, three-quarters empty, and the boom
of Europeans converting to Islam, but also from what is happening in Europe's
schools. The trends do not support Viktor Orbán's vision for a Christian Europe.
A few days ago, Belgium, which was recently targeted in terror attacks, decided
that religion classes in French-speaking primary and secondary schools will be
cut in half starting in October 2016, and replaced with an hour of "citizenship
classes": lessons in secularism. In Brussels, half the children in public
schools already choose to take classes in Islam.
In France, the Socialist government imposed a "secularism charter" in every
school, banning Christianity from the educational system. That charter is the
manifesto of the "révolution douce" ("soft revolution"), France's extreme
secularism. It is an attempt to eliminate any claim of identity. A Jewish
yarmulke, a Christian cross and an Islamic veil are treated the same way. This
secularism is what has been rightly defined "the Left's blind spot with Islam".
It is a secularism that has also gone mad. The Yves Codou elementary school in
the village of La Môle, for example, celebrated "Parents' Day" instead of
Mother's Day, in order not to upset gay couples. Municipalities have already
changed the enrollment form for schoolchildren by eliminating the words "father"
and "mother", replacing them with "legal manager 1" and "legal manager 2". It is
George Orwell's "Newspeak".
After two major terror attacks in 2015, France, instead of promoting a cultural
"jihad" based on Western values, responded to Islamic fundamentalism with a
ridiculous "Day of Secularism" to be celebrated every 9th of December.
It is not that this secularism "exacerbated" cultural tensions, as many liberals
say. It is that this secularism severed French culture from the very ideals that
created the West. Severing it made this culture blind to the incompatibility of
Islamism with secular-minded values. A French teacher, Isabelle Rey, after the
massacre at the satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, wrote that
"many of our students do not share our dismay at the events. We can pretend to
have a consensus, but it is a fact that a significant portion of our population
believes that the journalists deserved their fate or that the Kouachi brothers
[the murderers] died as heroes".
This narrow secularism has also prevented France from openly supporting Eastern
Christians under Islamist oppression. The music group "The Priests" had planned
to advertise an upcoming concert in Paris with a banner on a poster that said
proceeds would go towards the cause of Christians persecuted in Iraq and Syria
-- but the company operating the Paris subway system initially banned the ad,
saying it considered the banner as a violation of secularism.
Sweden, one of the European countries more infiltrated by radical Islam, is
listed as "the least religious" nation in the West. According to Statistics
Sweden, just 5% of Swedes are regular churchgoers, and one in three couples that
get married chooses a civil ceremony. How did Sweden get there? Many years ago,
the Swedish government banned any religious activities in schools except for
those directly related to religion classes.
Not only has secularism no answers for terrorism; it also leaves Europeans
unsure about what is worth fighting, killing, and dying for. If you believe, as
the secularists do, that our values are mere accidents of history and that the
highest good is comfort, then you will care nothing for the future of
civilization.
The symbol of this Euro-Secularism is the Oude Kerk, dating from the 13th
century, and one of the most famous churches in Amsterdam. The empty church is
now used for exhibitions and can be rented for gala dinners. In front of it
there is "Sexyland", offering "Live F*ck Shows", a coffee shop for drugs and an
"Erotic Supermarket" for dildos. For seven euros one can also visit the church.
The symbol of Euro-Secularism is the 13th century Oude Kerk in Amsterdam. The
empty church is now used for exhibitions and can be rented for gala dinners. In
front of it there is "Sexyland", offering "Live F*ck Shows", a coffee shop for
drugs and an "Erotic Supermarket" for dildos. (Image source: Wikimedia Commons)
Welcome to Amsterdam, where the most practised religion is Islam.
Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and
author.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Germans Debate Use of Force
against Jihadists
Soeren Ker/Gatestone Institute/July 24, 2016
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8528/germany-wurzburg-attack-jihad
"I am a soldier of the Caliphate and am launching a martyrdom operation in
Germany. ... I have lived among you, lived in your homes. I planned this in your
own land. And I will slaughter you in your own homes and in the streets. ... I
will slaughter you with this knife and sever your necks with an axe, if Allah
permits. " – Germany's axe-attacker, in an Islamic State video.
"Künast should not be watching so many bad movies. Who would believe that if
someone attacks the police with an axe and a knife, the police are supposed to
shoot the axe out of the attacker's hands? That is really clueless and stupid.
If police officers are attacked in this manner, they will not engage in Kung Fu.
Unfortunately, it sometimes ends in the death of the perpetrator. This will not
change." – Rainer Wendt, Chairman of the German Police Union.
The Bavarian Criminal Police Office has now launched an internal investigation
to determine if police were justified in shooting a jihadist.
A 17-year-old Afghan asylum seeker brandishing an axe and shouting "Allahu
Akbar" ("Allah is the greatest") seriously injured five people on a train in
Würzburg, Bavaria. The assailant was shot dead by police after he charged at
them with the axe.
The teenager, who had claimed asylum after arriving in Germany in June 2015 as
an unaccompanied minor, had been placed with a foster family just two weeks
before the attack as a reward for being "well integrated."
Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann said police had found a hand-painted
Islamic State flag in his room at his foster home in the nearby town of
Ochsenfurt. They also found a farewell letter to his father which read: "Now
pray for me so that I can take revenge on these infidels. Pray for me that I can
get to paradise."
Shortly after the attack, the Islamic State released a video purporting to show
an Afghan asylum seeker holding a knife and making threats against Germany:
"In the name of Allah, I am a soldier of the Caliphate and am launching a
martyrdom operation in Germany.
"Here I am. I have lived among you, lived in your homes. I planned this in your
own land. And I will slaughter you in your own homes and in the streets.
"I will make you forget about the spectacular attacks in France, if Allah
permits.
"I will fight to the death, if Allah permits. I will slaughter you with this
knife and sever your necks with an axe, if Allah permits."
In the video, the Islamic State identified the attacker as Muhammad Riyad, who
can be heard speaking Pashto, a language spoken in Afghanistan, Pakistan and
Iran. But German media identified the attacker as Riaz Khan Ahmadzai. The
discrepancy raised questions about the teenager's true identity.
Police found a Pakistani document in the teenager's room, leading some to
believe he may have lied about being from Afghanistan in order to improve his
chances of securing asylum. German authorities generally classify migrants from
Pakistan as economic migrants and those from Afghanistan as refugees. But
Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière said there is no reason to doubt that the
attacker was indeed from Afghanistan.
There are also unresolved questions about the teenager's ties to the Islamic
State. Herrmann, the Bavarian interior minister, said the video is authentic:
"The man in the video is the Würzburg attacker." The federal prosecutor's office
in Karlsruhe said it believed "the attacker committed the offense as a member of
the Islamic State."
Left: The 17-year-old Afghan asylum seeker who seriously injured five people on
a train in Germany, while shouting "Allahu Akbar," is shown in an Islamic State
video saying, "In the name of Allah, I am a soldier of the Caliphate and am
launching a martyrdom operation in Germany... I will slaughter you in your own
homes and in the streets." Right: The attacker's body is removed from the place
where police shot him, after he charged at them with the axe.
By contrast, De Maizière said the attacker was a self-radicalized "lone wolf"
who had been incited by Islamic State propaganda. The public prosecutor in
Bamberg, Erik Ohlenschlager, said "We have no evidence that he was in direct
contact with the Islamic State."
After the blood-filled train — an eyewitness said it "looked like a
slaughterhouse" — came to a stop at a station in Heidingsfeld near Würzburg, the
teenager jumped off and tried to escape. Surrounded by police, he lunged at them
with an axe. Police shot the attacker dead because "there was no other option."
Green Party MP Renate Künast criticized the police for using lethal force. In a
tweet, she wrote: "Why could the attacker not have been incapacitated without
killing him???? Questions!"
Künast's comments provoked a furious backlash, with many accusing her of showing
more sympathy for the perpetrator than for the victims. The outpouring of anger
against Künast indicates that Germans have had enough of their politically
correct politicians.
The chairman of the German police union, Rainer Wendt, said:
"The final rescue shot is clearly regulated by law. The policemen were attacked
and used their firearm to defend against an immediate danger to life and limb.
That is their statutory duty. The Green MP Renate Künast has absolutely no idea
about reality of dangerous police actions."
Speaking on N24 television, Wendt added:
"Künast should not be watching so many bad movies. Who would believe that if
someone attacks the police with an axe and a knife, the police are supposed to
shoot the axe out of the attacker's hands? That is really clueless and stupid.
"If police officers are attacked in this manner, they will not engage in Kung
Fu. Unfortunately, it sometimes ends in the death of the perpetrator. This will
not change."
The head of the police union in Bavaria, Peter Schall, said: "If a police
officer is not allowed to shoot in such situations, he might as well stop
carrying a weapon."
Mike Mohring, a politician with the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU),
called for stiffer penalties for those who attack police officers. He said
attacks against police are on the rise across Germany and "the only effective
deterrent is that the law provides an appropriate penalty." He also said German
police should be outfitted with body cameras to protect both the police and the
public.
Bavarian Justice Minister Winfried Bausback called on Künast to resign: "Anyone
who publicly suspects police in such a situation without any knowledge of the
matter — as Künast has done in her tweet — is unacceptable as chairman of the
parliamentary legal committee."
Green leader Cem Özdemir distanced himself from Künast:
"I did not understand what she wrote there. It is always a good idea to think
about what you are writing before you send a tweet. What are police officers
supposed to do if they are attacked? They protected others and they protected
themselves. Her view is not the position of my party."
Andreas Scheuer, the general secretary of the Christian Social Union, the
Bavarian sister party to Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU, said Künast's comments
were "perverse." He added: "The CSU's policy is: protection of victims takes
priority over protection of perpetrators."
German commentator Klaus Kelle wrote:
"Our police in Germany do an excellent job and are hardly ever thanked for it.
They are poorly paid ... and repeatedly are whipping boys for errors of policy.
Endless overtime, violent attacks, even in harmless situations such as illegal
parking, is part of everyday life for our sons and daughters, who serve all of
us.
"Where are the politicians who support our policemen, rather than those who
mindlessly criticize them, as now? Ms. Künast, does the presumption of innocence
apply to police officers in this country?"
The Bavarian Criminal Police Office has now launched an internal investigation
to determine if police were justified in shooting a jihadist.
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is
also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios
Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter.
His first book, Global Fire, will be out in 2016.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Terrorist Attack
on Nice: Can a Radicalized Lone Wolf be detected?
Middle East Briefing/July 24/16
The Nice, France attack of July 14 is yet another reminder, as if we need more,
that the “artisanal” security approach can have only so much success. There is
no way someone can invent a security sensor that whistles when it detects a
terrorist intention in the head of a normal person who has no previous records
driving an ice truck full of arms and explosives.
Until a genius geek invents such a sensor, detecting a lone wolf will remain
almost impossible. Yet, there is a way: Change the ideas that beget terrorism.
In other words, Muslim scholars should be encouraged to reveal the fallacy of
the whole structure of teachings, interpretations, fatwas, and old, truly
un-Islamic books that forge a whole theory justifying the murder of innocent
civilians.
We have said that multiple times in previous issues of MEB. We will not stop.
For we sense the popular rejection of large numbers of Muslims of these blind
senseless killings. They defy human nature. The problem that all those Muslims,
who are the overwhelming majority of Muslims, are faced with a dilemma: There
are Sheikhs who flood them with righteous, religious justifications of these
murders, and there are Sheikhs who whisper that it is un-Islamic.
Why do they only whisper? Because the interpretation of the texts of Islam,
adopted by its controlling dogmatic establishment, has many interpretations in
which the best is a qualified acceptance of this form of terrorism “under
special requirements”. In essence, Islam refuses blind killing of the type we
see almost on daily bases. Accurately put, there are many versions that could be
interpreted either way. The terrorist supporters twist some versions to a
complete deformation and divorce of its context and meaning. There is no one to
twist it back to its original meaning.
The urban middle class in many of the Arab countries are starting to realize the
enormous damage inflicted by radical Jihadists on the Arab countries. It has
almost torn Egypt and Algeria to pieces from within. It destroyed Afghanistan,
Syria, Iraq, and the list is still open to additions. Wherever there is that
version of Islamism, Muslims are killed, Christians are forced to either leave
or remain as second class citizens with their churches burned, minorities are
slaughtered, and freedom of speech is considered a crime.
Those middle classes should not face the bitter choice of remaining silent or
joining the terrorists. A group of reformist and enlightened Muslim scholars
should criticize the current theoretical, ideological, and theological structure
of interpretations and retake Islam from those who hijacked its soul to give the
world, including all Muslims, this unbearable pain.
It is not a genius geek carrying a whistling machine that we should wait for, it
is a patient and systematic effort to build a true critical school of thought
inside Islam to return it to its essence. This effort must be helped by the
entire civilized world. The Arab urban middle class is thirsty for a line of
thought that situates Islam on a rational foundation that represents its true
essence. Reformist scholars appear here and there to only be killed or
imprisoned. These guys are the geeks with their books that will eventually build
a theological resistance to the current nihilist and pessimistic views of the
jihadists, who see the world and all Muslims who do not join them as enemies
deserving of death, even if they themselves die in the process of cleansing the
world of its sins. This rubbish cannot be a religion. And certainly it is not
Islam as we see it.
Every time we write about a terrorist attack we pray it will be the last. But
then: Baghdad, Istanbul, Bangladesh, Nice, San Bernardino, Paris, Orlando, and
the list goes on.
A lone wolf cannot be detected easily. And we do not have the whistling machine
that sniffs terrorist ideas in people’s heads. But we can start the long and
unavoidable journey of grouping reform sources in the body of thoughts of Islam.
Many Arab governments are ready to help. Yet, the platform that gathers these
reformers should be independent. Its ideas should trickle down to the middle
classes in the Arab world. And above all, it should not include any
representative of the religious establishments in the Islamic countries. After
all, these establishments are accomplices in the current tragic picture we see.
They are inherently prisoners of the traditional school of thought which
furnished the foundations of the madness around us.
How can we detect a lone wolf? We cannot. Security can follow some potential
wolves of this kind. But there is no way security can solve this problem. Fewer
of those animals carrying explosives can certainly help. Yet, the mission is to
move the debate within Islam to a point where those animals are seen by all
Muslims for what they really are: The main enemies of Islam and Muslims.
Russia Braces for New Terror
Wave
Middle East Briefing/July 24/16
As ISIL braces for further territorial losses in Syria and Iraq, and ongoing
setbacks in Libya, the ability of both ISIL and al-Qaeda to carry out
significant terrorist attacks against Russian and Western targets is seen as key
to continuing recruitment and fundraising.
Russian concerns were intensified following the June 28 sophisticated attack on
the Istanbul International Airport by the Islamic State, in which 44 people were
killed and over 230 injured. The attack was launched in three stages, with an
initial incident outside the terminal building drawing security forces away from
the terminal entrance to allow for penetration by the main attack force.
Turkish authorities arrested 13 terrorists, including three Russian nationals
from the Caucasus region, after the attack. The assault was reportedly
masterminded by Akhmed Chatayev, a veteran of the first two Chechen Wars, who
fled to Austria and became the chief European agent of Chechen separatist Dokka
Umarov. Despite repeated Russian efforts to have Chatayev extradited, the
European Court of Human Rights rejected the request, and Chatayev returned to
Georgia from 2012-2015, until moving to Syria, where he joined ISIL and became
an important trainer of Islamic State suicide bombers.
Chatayev heads the Yarmouk Battalion of ISIL, comprised of an estimated 130
fighters, most of whom have European Union passports, giving them easier access
to Europe. He is still free.
According to Konstantin Kazenin of the Russian Presidential Academy of National
Economy and Public Administration, Chechen and other Caucasus jihadists have
flocked to Iraq and Syria, particularly after an intense period of Russian
crackdown on the jihadists leading up to the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. An
earlier wave of Chechen fighters took refuge in Afghanistan and Pakistan
following the Second Chechen War and joined al-Qaeda. When al-Qaeda in Iraq
morphed into the Islamic State, many of the top Chechen commanders joined ISIL.
At one point, Russian authorities estimated that there were well over 1,000
Chechen fighters among the ISIL armed units.
Up until recently, ISIL and Nusra offered higher wages and better weapons than
the local Caucasus affiliates, further drawing Chechen, Dagestani, and Ossetian
fighters to the battlegrounds of Syria and Iraq. Now, with setbacks in Syria,
many of the Chechen fighters in Nusra and ISIL are preparing to return to the
Russian Caucasus, adding to growing Russian concerns.
Not only do Russian authorities fear a new escalation in the Caucasus there has
been a significant terrorist upsurge in Kazakhstan since early June, when ISIL
launched an armed assault June 6 on an Army weapons depot at Aktobe. In the gun
battle that ensued, 12 terrorists were killed and nine were captured, but an
unreported number escaped. On July 12, a Kazakh court convicted 12 ISIL members
of plotting a campaign of terrorism. Six days later, two gunmen from the same
ISIL cell ambushed and murdered three police officers.
The emergence of a Kazakhstan front of ISIL has been underway for a number of
years, when large numbers of Chechen and Dagestani fighters migrated to the west
of the country, bordering on Russia. A key figure in the buildup of that terror
network was Sheikh Halil (Abdulhalil Abdujabarov), who was trained in Pakistan
and moved to Kazakhstan in 2003. He subsequently fled to Saudi Arabia, where he
was captured and jailed.
While Russian authorities are most concerned about a reverse migration of
Chechen fighters back into the Caucasus, they are also worried that Central Asia
offers an easy access for jihadist fighters into Russia.
On July 10, US forces killed one of the top Chechen commanders of the Islamic
State in a bombing south of Mosul. Abu Omar al-Shishani (“Omar the Chechen”) was
the mastermind of the original ISIL assault on Mosul. His real name was Tarkan
Tayumurazovich Batirashvilii. He was born in Georgia in 1986, fought in the two
Chechen Wars and later was part of the Georgian Special Forces units that
battled against the Russians in the 2008 Georgia War. In 2012, Batirashvilii
moved to Syria and joined the Islamic State.
Last week’s suicide truck attack in Nice, France on Bastille Day was carried out
by ISIL in revenge for the killing of al-Shishani.
Three days later, on the eve of John Kerry’s visit to Moscow, the US State
Department added two prominent Russian terrorists to the list of “specially
designated global terrorists.”
Aslan Abgazarovich Byutukayev (“Amir Khamzat”) is the head of the Islamic State
in Chechnya. He was responsible for the January 2011 attack on Moscow Domodedovo
Airport, in which 35 people were killed.
Aryatnasimovich Vakhitov (“Salman Bulgarsky”) is a leading Islamic State
recruiter, who fought in Syria. He was captured by Turkish authorities following
the Istanbul Airport assault.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing some domestic problems that could be
greatly aggravated by a successful ISIL terrorist offensive inside Russia. Putin
recalls the September 1-3, 2004 attack in Beslan, North Ossetia, in which
Chechen terrorists seized over 1,000 hostages. In the rescue mission that
ensued, the terrorists and Russian commandos killed 334 hostages, mostly
children. It was a nightmare that Putin cannot afford to repeat.
Duma elections will take place in September, and the economic downturn, due in
some part to the combination of Western sanctions and the decline in oil prices,
have cut into Putin’s base of support. A recent FSB (Russian foreign
intelligence) study expressed concern that, as the result of the austerity
measures forced on Russia, Muslim regions have been particularly hard hit, and
this has opened up those areas to flows of foreign funds and radical
recruitment. One FSB report warned about the parallels with the process of
radicalization in Pakistan decades ago.
Putin is committed to the idea that the Chechen and other Caucasus terror
networks must be crushed before they return to Russian soil. That means that he
is open to deepening cooperation with the United States, to launch a decisive
campaign against both ISIL and Nusra, while they are still cornered in Syria and
Iraq. That may be easier said than done.
US-Russia Cooperation in
Syria: Question Marks
Middle East Briefing/July 24/16
The leaked draft of the US-Russian deal on Syria raises many questions, and
indeed exclamation marks, in our minds. But we need first to find the proper
method to read the text. The text, like any in such circumstances, is hard to
dissect and even ambiguous if not read through a clear analytical method and
with a thorough focus on the situation on the ground.
In general, we can read the text of the agreement, called “Terms of Reference
for the Joint Implementation Group” (JIG), in the context of considering Syria
as divided into three areas: Area A, which is under the tight control of the
Assad regime and its allies, area B, in which all the warring parties, except
ISIL but including Assad, are active, and area C, which is under the exclusive
control of ISIL.
Now, areas A and C are not problematic. All parties, including the opposition,
have no quarrel over the two sections. In the first, there is no fighting and in
the second, no one opposes whoever wants to bomb ISIL (though there are question
marks about who will hold ISIL territories once it collapses). The problematic
areas are those which fall under area B.
Area B is, in turn, reduced to two major spots: Aleppo and the Southern Front.
There are some minor spots around Homs and Hama and elsewhere, but they are not
as problematic as Aleppo and the southern region of Damascus.
With this in mind, we can proceed to dissect the JIG.
Like any similar deal, the JIG reveals the objectives of the signatories which
is here summarized in working together “to defeat Jabhat al Nusra and Daesh
within the context of strengthening the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) and
supporting the political transition process outlined in UNSCR 2254.” The first
question that pops into the mind at reading this is: Where does the Geneva I
communiqué of 2012, signed by the two powers, come in this context? The US seems
to have reneged from numerous public commitments to adhere to the communiqué.
The difference between the two, Geneva I and the UNSCR 2254, has been discussed
in detail in previous issues of Middle East Briefing. But briefly again, 2254 is
a step back from Geneva I, as the latter is the official articulation of the
“ISIL First” doctrine, and completely blurs the nature of the transitional
process defined clearly in Geneva I.
For the readers who are not familiar with the reasons we oppose the “ISIL First”
principle, it suffices to say that we consider both fighting ISIL and achieving
a political solution in Syria as one integrated process with two interrelated
dynamics. Even if fighting ISIL reaches its objective of defeating the group
militarily through the mathematical separation of the strategy into a two
separate parts, one following the other, ISIL, as an idea and an ideology will
be reborn somehow as al-Qaeda was in Iraq due to the continued lack of political
deal.
As explained above, by virtue of the nature of the JIG as a B-area-focused deal,
it mainly tackles the issue of fighting Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN). The text of the
JIG says the following in that regard:
Nusra Targeting. The participants will commit to supporting deliberate targeting
of Nusra. Once senior representatives to the JIG decide that information
exchange has produced commonly understood information, the participants, through
the JIG, intend to begin coordinating the targeting of Nusra. The participants
are to develop target packages for Nusra targets under their national targeting
processes. The participants, through the JIG, should coordinate on targets that
have been developed. Once a decision has been reached on targets, the
participants should coordinate the participants’ proposals on how these targets
are to be addressed. Initial efforts against mutually-decided-upon targets will
be deconflicted by geography or time. With the exception of imminent threats to
the participants where prior agreement on a target is infeasible, the
participants will only take action against Nusra targets that are agreed to in
advance, pursuant to procedures developed by the JIG and deconflicted through
existing channels.
There are many questions in this regard:
1: How can the two sides of the deal pinpoint the locations of Nusra if it is
mixed with the other groups in a maddening mosaic, say in Aleppo or Idlib?
Positions change every day, and sometimes every hour, as alliances and
hostilities between the various organizations active in those areas shift.
2: Does the deal bind Russia not to bomb other targets not included in the
signed coordination process with the US?
The JIG says:
The participants are to coordinate agreement on Nusra targets that have been
deemed “actionable” through the participants’ respective national processes.
National headquarters are to provide information on actionable targets in a
format to be developed and decided upon by the participants. Actionable targets
are those that have been “vetted” – targets for which participants have accurate
supporting intelligence. The participants may commit additional Intelligence,
Surveillance and Reconnaissance resources to support vetting of potential
targets consistent with their respective national priorities. The participants
anticipate “validating” actionable targets under their respective national
processes to ensure they meet the appropriate commander’s guidance, and may be
targeted consistent with international humanitarian law and applicable rules of
engagement.
The US may rule that Ahrar al-Sham, for example, is not a target. The Russians
see it as a target. What is to be done in this case? We have seen in numerous
occasions the Russians unilaterally bombing sites alleged to be occupied by
“terrorists”, only to find out shortly after that they were hospitals or
schools. Does the JIG mean that the individual Russian raids that are not done
under the terms of the joint agreement may not at all impact the cooperation
between the US military with the Russian military regardless of gruesome
violations of human rights? How could the Syrians then differentiate between the
two powers who work together in certain areas and individually in other areas?
3: The agreement says: “The participants anticipate “validating” actionable
targets under their respective national processes to ensure they meet the
appropriate commander’s guidance, and may be targeted consistent with
international humanitarian law and applicable rules of engagement.” Since when
could anyone assume that Russia’s “national process” in targeting is able to
adhere to “international humanitarian law”? And even if they do when targeting
jointly, how about their individual operations which are not covered by the JIG?
4: The agreement says: “Only those targets that both participants agree are
actionable will be further developed for strikes. The participants are to
facilitate precision targeting by exchanging mensurated target locations.
Actionable targets, as decided mutually by the participants, are to receive the
same treatment as do other national targets – there is no presumption of
priority simply because the participants mutually decided that a target is
actionable”.
Now, let us imagine the following scenario: An Assad-allied force is under
attack by the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Assad decides it is important for him to
interfere by his air force instantly to save his forces. He asks the Russians
for help. If they do not respond immediately, he carries on anyway and send his
planes with their barrel bombs. What will both powers do?
The only requirement, according to the JIG, is to “be provided advance notice of
regime air operations that are permitted as exemptions to the grounding of
Syrian military aircraft. The JIG is to maintain a current Syrian air order of
battle; changes to the disposition of regime aircraft are to be reported daily.
The participants should develop measures to help confirm the Syrian military’s
compliance with the grounding. The JIG is to report regime violations to the
participants.”
However, the text says: “The regime is prohibited from flying in designated
areas; designated areas include areas of most concentrated Nusra presence, areas
of significant Nusra presence, and areas where the opposition is dominant.”
Well, could those “designated areas” be specified in public? Is Aleppo part of
them? Is Idlib? Is Daraa or the Ghouta? And do the Russians have the right to
bomb those designated areas on behalf of the regime? And what if the regime
targets those areas with its artillery? What will the JIG do?
All the operations mentioned above as examples are not imaginary or unlikely
scenarios. They happen all the time. And they show that the text of the JIG is
not adequate to deal with the reality on the ground. It just shows that both
powers “can work together”. But work together to do what exactly?
When we examine potential scenarios developing on the ground, we find that
ultimately the US accepted to work against almost all groups of the Syrian
opposition. What is excluded are those that receive direct assistance from the
US or are organically commanded by the US. The rest are considered, in
actuality, possible targets, either by both powers, or by the Russians and
Assad.
5: Will the US have veto power on any of the Russian raids on non-terrorist
groups? Search the JIG as much as you want, there is none. Therefore, we will
see operations coordinated between the two powers, plus the Russian operations
we see every day. This is significant. It just places the US as a decorative
tail to Russian control over Syria. Does anyone think this will help the US in
the Middle East?
The only veto placed on Russian targeting policies is kind of non-binding, or
non-veto. The agreement says “The participants can target imminent threats to
their respective personnel if prior agreement on a target is infeasible. In
addition, participants can target imminent threats against their respective
nationals by named senior Shura council members of Nusra and active external
plotters, as agreed by the United States and Russia.”
But the “oops” excuse in the case of Russia is a way of life. They bomb a
hospital and say “oops”, didn’t know it was a hospital. To mention the right to
bomb American citizens, even members of Nusra, under the umbrella of the JIG, is
to say the least, a precedent.
If the agreement is implemented, the results will be a net loss for the US in
Syria. The US will take the shared responsibility of Russian brutal use of
military force real or perceived.
Furthermore, the possibility of reaching a real ceasefire is diminished through
the JIG. Ceasefires are based on a degree of balance of power. Balance of power
is not measured in military capacities only, it is also a perception. Assad
thinks that he is winning. He did his best to break the ceasefire before.
Nothing can compel him now to change his calculus. On the contrary, he is
telling everyone that his defiance got him much closer to victory. This mindset
is not one that can abide by any deal.
On previous occasions, the Russians did not stop Assad from systematically
violating the ceasefire. And on many occasions, they helped him do it. Why would
the US accept turning into an auxiliary to murderers of that kind?
The best defense cited in attempts to answer this question goes like this: The
opposition has some dangerous elements that cooperate with JAN. All we want is
to save the civilians by enacting a ceasefire. We also want to widen the space
between Assad and Moscow, and that will happen when the Russians try to force
the regime not to use his planes to bomb the “designated” areas. But the groups
that cooperate with JAN do so under the pressure of the brutal force of Assad
and his Russian and Iranian allies. It is similar to the US position in Iraq
when American forces fight in the same front that includes the Popular
Mobilization Forces, which is led by people who killed many American soldiers a
few years ago. It is like “coordinating” with the Russians who fight in the same
camp of Hezbollah, responsible for killing hundreds of American marines.
Furthermore, the space between Assad and Russia will not be widened through this
naïve way if at all. As Assad said, correctly in fact, Russia is in Syria for
its own strategic interests. If the JIG was meant to mold the US approach to
Moscow in a context of cooperation as a tactic to cut off the road of the
“hawks” who try to bring back “the cold war ghosts”, this would be a different
matter. Why should the Syrian people pay the price for such an issue that is not
related to their fight for freedom?
The Longest Night in Istanbul: Turkey after the 6-Hour Failed Coup
Middle East Briefing/July 24/16
Just three weeks before the news of Turkey’s failed coup, Middle East Briefing
warned that a military move against Erdoğan would not succeed. We explained the
dynamics that make a successful coup inconceivable in a context free of a
popular tide against the Turkish President or an economic crisis that would make
this tide possible. Neither was there. The coup appeared like a storm in a clear
sky.
But what will Turkey look like after the failed coup?
In two words: not good.
There are quite a few forces that, though they have always been there, will be
unleashed to the surface in full thrust in the coming weeks, and will shape the
moment and the immediate future of Turkey.
Shortly after the seemingly half-baked coup attempt, Islamists who have been
mushrooming in Turkey during the last few years, rushed to the streets to
confront the rebelling military units. A number of soldiers were slaughtered
instead of arrested and delivered to the police.
The following morning, Erdoğan moved swiftly to where he had in mind all the
time: the judiciary and the armed forces. He immediately fired 2,754 judges and
arrested a number of high ranking officers and thousands of officers known to
have different views for the future of Turkey. How he could know, that quickly,
that they were implicated in the coup attempt remains a question mark. But what
is even more interesting is that the move, which was in the oven for some time
now, reflected exactly the dynamics that will eventually make the Turkish
President more vulnerable to making serious mistakes.
The Turkish President has a sense of gratitude towards the Islamists in Turkey.
Activists from this large-scale social trend were the “first responders” in the
early hours of the attempted coup. This sense of gratitude, coupled with
Erdoğan’s realization that he is now more powerful than before, makes the
Turkish President feel that he is now undefeatable and that his dream of
becoming for Islamists what Nasser was for Arab nationalists is destined to
create more foreign policy troubles for a President who has made quite a few
already, even in ordinary circumstances.
We will see two contradicting dynamics playing out here, to draw the picture of
Turkey in the post-coup period. First, we have a President who is drunk on a
spectacular victory and who seems to be ready to step on the gas and go fast
towards fulfilling his project for Turkey. The Turkish President said frankly
that the coup attempt “is a gift from God to us because this will be a reason to
cleanse our army.” He does not remember what his friend, former Egyptian
President Mohammed Morsi, once said: drinking and driving do not mix.
The second dynamic is that forcing reality to change rapidly and abruptly by
forcing to fit one’s own plans and subjective ideas does not usually end nicely.
Moving faster on the agenda of transforming Turkey’s political system and public
culture recklessly risks a backlash. Being drunk on victory is a subjective
perception of himself. Perceptions are not the makers of realities, rather the
opposite is true. When one’s moves are driven by perceptions and personal plans,
disregarding the surrounding concrete element , one is more susceptible to
treading into sensitive areas and messing with existing and solid realities.
Reality usually responds in kind.
This contradiction is, and will be, translated into many a chain of steps, which
have already started.
* Humiliating coup soldiers in uniform publicly does not bode well for the
military in general. The Turkish military has a long history of pride and a
sense that they have always been, since the Ottomans, kind of “special”,
distinct from and a little superior to their society.
This self-image is now tested with a flood of images of beaten and humiliated
soldiers. The rise of the Islamists in the society, their sense of power, and
their traditional enmity to the military guarantees that frictions will only
continue to increase the frustration of army officers. Authorities in Ankara
arrested 103 generals and admirals. The numbers of arrested lower ranks is
several times that. This puts Turkey’s military under extreme pressure and may
crack it from within. While it will not be easy to change the nature of Turkey’s
military altogether, the impact of what is happening will weaken this
institution substantially. At one point, it may trigger even another coup
attempt.
* Erdoğan is cracking down not only on followers of Fethullah Gülen, the
religious leader living in the US, but on all opponents of his project for the
future of Turkey. As this project erodes the secular foundation of the state,
and as its implementer harbors an exaggerated sense of empowerment, the gap
between secular, republican Turks and supporters of Erdoğan will widen rapidly.
The government’s oppressive policies are gaining steam.
Erdoğan once said that democracy is a train he rides until he reaches his
destination, which is his project for the neo-Ottoman Turkey. This trajectory
will now see more violations of democratic principles and human rights. The
train traveled a long way in only six hours.
* Secular Turkey was anti-Kurds’ rights. But Erdoğan’s
ultranationalist-religious Turkey is even more so. Islamists demonstrated in
Diyarbakir a few hours after the attempted coup. The demonstrators were shouting
anti-Kurdish slogans.
Tension has been rising in the eastern province of Malatya, as a number of
people from a large crowd which had gathered to protest the failed coup
reportedly chanted pro-government slogans in largely Alawi-populated
neighborhoods in the province.
“The [ruling Justice and Development Party] AKP supporters are here. Where are
the Alawis?” shouted the group in the Alawi-dominated Paşaköşkü and Çavuşoğlu
neighborhoods, as they also parked their cars in the neighborhoods’ streets and
played AKP election songs.
* Dismantling democratic institutions in Turkey will proceed on full steam. The
AKP parliamentarians voted into law a major court-packing bill that will
drastically reduce the ranks of Turkey’s higher courts and replace them with
jurists handpicked by the president – the final nail in the coffin of Turkey’s
wobbling judiciary. The law, passed immediately after the failed coup, follows
another that passed last week, granting immunity from prosecution to security
personnel and civil servants involved in counter-terrorism activities – a task
which these days involves hunting down academics, journalists and students, as
well as militants.
* Sitting more securely in the driver’s seat, and with an exaggerated sense of
power, Erdoğan made, and will continue making, abrupt foreign policy moves based
on what he wants, not on how things are. A few examples:
– Erdoğan’s ties with the US are heading towards tension. They have not been
particularly warm lately, but in the aftermath of the coup things will get
worse. The Turkish Minister of Trade accused the US of standing behind the coup.
Secretary Kerry’s response was decisive: “Do not play this card.”
Furthermore, Turkey has requested the extradition of Gülen from his self-imposed
exile in Pennsylvania; Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım said on July 18
that “Turkey may question its friendship with the US. amid calls for the
extradition of U.S.-based scholar Fethullah Gülen after a failed coup attempt.
“Even questioning our friendship may be brought to the agenda here. Nonetheless,
our Justice Ministry is conducting the necessary work,” Yıldırım told reporters
while speaking at a press conference after a cabinet meeting in Ankara.
US Ambassador in Ankara, John Bass, explained that the extradition of Gülen will
be based on evidence submitted to US authorities that implicates Gülen. “I
underscore that our extradition treaty and U.S. laws have specific requirements
that must be met before a suspect individual can be transferred to another
nation’s jurisdiction,” he added. Yıldırım responded by saying that the failed
coup itself is a piece of evidence. “Is there better evidence than this? We will
be a little bit disappointed if our friends say ‘show us the evidence’ while
there are members of this organization which is trying to destroy a state and a
person who instructs it,” Yıldırım added. Turkey does not look ready to drop its
demand as its Foreign Minister will arrive to Washington soon to pursue the
matter.
– Erdoğan and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will meet face to face next
month. The Russian President is actually weaker inside Russia than the image he
tries to project. His economy is suffering. Erdoğan, on the other hand, may be
tempted to play the classic “Russia” card which is as old as the Emperors of St.
Petersburg and Istanbul.
The problem for Erdoğan here is that to go East in order to pressure the West,
he will be taking a risk with his Islamist base and Western allies alike.
One example: There are persistent whispers about an Iranian-Algerian mediation
between Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Some political figures in Turkey secretly met
with high ranking officials in the Assad security agencies throughout the past
few years. Most likely, President Putin knows that, even if he’s not
participating in it. If Putin ever senses that Erdoğan is turning against the
West, a deal with Assad and Iran could be raised in clearer terms by Moscow.
This will change the strategic alignments in the Middle East. It will anger some
Arab capitals and will certainly strain Erdoğan’s ties with the Islamists who
have had to swallow his recent step of normalizing ties with Israel. It’s true
that the Islamists are ready to look the other way when their “hero” makes such
steps, but there will certainly be questions and doubts rising among them.
– The European Union was never comfortable with Erdoğan’s domestic policies,
particularly in the domain of human rights and free speech. NATO has also had
some reservations about Ankara’s Middle East policies. Returning to the death
sentence in order to settle the account with coup leaders will hurt Turkey’s
trade ties with the EU. NATO’s leadership has made it clear that a commitment to
“uphold democracy, including tolerating diversity” is one of the five core
requirements for members of the alliance.
Erdoğan will be strongly tempted, due to his personal nature and outlook, to
exacerbate the EU and NATO criticism. He already started. By going East, Erdoğan
is not helping to restrain the deterioration of ties that had already started
sometime before the failed coup.
– The foreign policy shift that Erdoğan implemented just prior to the coup (his
reconciliation with Moscow, normalization with Israel, and realist approach
towards Syria and Egypt), was done under pressure from a business class worried
about clogged horizons of growth and uncertain prospects of trade and investment
with neighbors.
To simplify the picture, albeit at the expense of important details, Ahmet
Davutoğlu was representing the agenda of Turkey’s business class. Erdoğan got
the message but fired its carrier. The pyramid of power, in his mind, should
have only one tip. It cannot take two. And in a move that reflects his loyalty
to himself, he adopted the message and made the U-turn we have recently seen in
his foreign policy. Erdoğan the activist, the leader of Islamism, the new Caliph
of the neo-Ottomans, retreated one step in favor of Erdoğan the statesman.
But now, by the very nature of the moment, Erdoğan the militant may be the one
in the driving seat. The Turkish leader’s sense of power and gratitude towards
the Islamists, coupled with his views about the world and himself, will collide
head-on with Erdoğan the statesman. Tension with the US and the EU certainly
goes against Davutoğlu’s prescription of “Zero Problems” and may return Turkey
back to where it was under Erdoğan’s motto of “Problems are Welcomed” if they
are the price for constructing the neo-Ottoman era.
Erdoğan sees himself, and the Islamists see him, as the knight sitting on his
horse, bearing the flag of the revival of old Islamic glory in the face of the
enemies of Islam, who surround Muslims from all directions and who want to
extinguish the rising flames of the revival. He explained his moves toward
Israel as he may explain all his future deals with Russia, Iran, and Syria:
tactics! Just smart tactics to use the opportunity to raise the great old flags.
It is indeed a risky moment both for Turkey and for Erdoğan himself. For Turkey,
the split between the secularists and the Islamists will widen with the more
aggressive policies expected from Erdoğan after the failed coup. Democratic
principles will come under harsher attacks. Radicalization of larger segments of
the population, particularly in rural Turkey, will proceed in earnest.
For the Turkish President, the sense that he is invincible will encourage him to
drive faster. But we all know that Morsi was, for once, right: Drinking and
driving do not mix. It is the fastest dancer who gets his legs entangled in
robes before all others. Or as the Arabs say: The best of swimmers is the one
who drowns. In some cases the poison that does not kill you makes you stronger.
Erdoğan believes this to be his case. But it may not be. Douglas MacArthur once
said “Oh Lord, who will be strong enough to know he is weak and humble and
gentle in victory.”
Don't wipe the smiles off
their bright faces
Turki Aldakhil/Al Arabiya/July 24/16
Who wiped off the smiles from their bright faces?
Saudi Prince Khaled al-Faisal asked this question in 2004 in a famous article.
He bitterly asked: "What happened to this person? How did joy and happiness
vanish? Who took the smile away from his bright face? Who drew the curtains of
depression on their faces? Who made children fear play, laughter and fun? Who
made grownups fear life? Who cancelled happiness and spread sorrow? Who
convinced sons and daughters to call their fathers and mothers infidels?"These
statements were made by a prince and an administrative governor who knew society
well, integrated with the people and learnt of rare details in our vast land. It
seems the question he raised has since become bigger. Several incidents, of
which the most recent was the crackdown on a comedy event in Saudi Arabia,
showed that we are not done with assassinating people’s smile, stealing joy and
aborting happiness. Why do events which bring joy provoke some people more than
terrorist crimes do? It's intimidating how there are blocs to besiege
entertainment and joy but they don't have the same enthusiasm to besiege hatred
and bloodshed. Why do events which bring joy provoke some people more than
terrorist crimes do? Such models will certainly come to an end. Saudi Arabia’s
recreational reform strategy was established by authorities and it will perform
activities and play its role in making people happy and providing the recreation
they deserve. Muslim philosopher Hujjat al-Ghazali (1058-1111) once said:
"Whoever is unmoved by spring flowers and the plucking of the lute is flawed in
nature and cannot be helped." Welcome their smile, don't take it away from them.
*This article was first published in Okaz on July 24, 2016.
Donald Trump – with us or
against us?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/July 24/16
Last week, US presidential candidate Donald Trump delivered the longest speech
given by a nominee in the history of the Republican National Convention. Despite
this, he didn't help us much in understanding what his foreign policy will be if
he wins. His whole speech echoed his previous statements, saying that he will
cancel the nuclear agreement with Iran because he considers the US the losing
party in it and that he will not provide protection to his allies, like Saudi
Arabia, unless he gets something in return. These two points, if we assume they
are truly in his agenda when he wins, are not necessarily bad. I noticed many
are happy with Trump's stances, particularly by his threat to cancel the
agreement with Iran. They think that even if he can't revoke it, he will at
least not be enthusiastic in implementing it or in adopting a rapprochement
policy with Tehran. Does Trump have a political orientation that is totally
different than that of current President Barack Obama towards Iran and the rest
of Middle Eastern affairs? Truth be told, we don't know Trump’s orientations,
intentions and concerns. I don't know if anyone knows anything about them. He
came a long and exhausting way in the presidential race within the party and he
won the Republican Party's nomination for the presidency. There are less than
four months before finalizing the battle between him and his competitor,
democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, we know a lot
about Clinton and her orientations, opinions and those who work with her.
There's a long record of political work, participation and statements that help
us draw an image of how the next four years will play out. We do not expect she
will be enthusiastic in cooperating with Iran or enthusiastic about the nuclear
deal. At the same time, we do not expect she will obstruct it and she may use it
as a base to achieve a more expanded regional policy. We expect Clinton to be
less enthusiastic than George W. Bush, but livelier than Barack Obama. If Trump
becomes president, he may align completely with Gulf states against Iran and
restore the policy of curbing the Iranian regime on the regional level - a
policy which existed before Obama came to power - and enhance the power of his
allies in the region. But he may also do the complete opposite and be open to
Iran and grant it more than Obama politically and commercially promised it.
Not intentionally mysterious
Lack of clarity in Trump's policy is not intentionally mysterious but it's due
to the fact that he's never practiced political work and never participated in
any activity that may indicate his political interests and orientations towards
countries other than the US. Trump is a businessman who has built an investment
empire and he's dealt with many institutions, companies and businessmen from
across the world, including the Arab world. A friend who has done work with him
once told me that Trump knows the region well and has many partnerships with
Arabs but he was never interested in political talk. Lack of clarity in Trump's
policy is not intentionally mysterious but it's due to the fact that he's never
practiced politics When he talks about trading American military power in
exchange of supporting any ally, like Gulf countries, he doesn’t seem to
understand that diplomatic ties, which have lasted for 70 years, were based on
mutual interests, not personal relations or charity work. The US as a superpower
has interests all over the world, and it gives as good as it gets. This is an
international relations custom which is mostly based on mutual interests and, in
part, ideologies. Despite the racist remarks attributed to Trump against
Muslims, Mexicans and others, these statements have not made many in the Arab
world angry or worried yet. American elections have always gotten us used to
political bidding. What Trump says against extremist Muslims is being said out
loud by Muslims themselves today. The world needs cooperation to eliminate
terrorism and target its presence and resources. This is a mutual interest.
**This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on July 24, 2016.
How can there be guardianship
over women in a modern Saudi Arabia?
Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/July 24/16
So much has happened over the past 10 days: a terrorist attack in France on
Bastille Day, a failed Turkish coup, Donald Trump officially become the
Republican Party nominee and Pakistani reality star Qandeel Baloch was brutally
murdered in a so-called ‘honor killing.’As such, it may be understandable that
many of us might have missed the recent Human Rights Watch (HRW) report which
criticized male guardianship over women in Saudi Arabia. Loosely defined, male
guardianship is a practice whereby women require the consent from their husbands
or male relatives to travel, work or carry out other various activities.
However, unlike most of the above mentioned disasters, the good news when it
comes to the male guardianship issue is that there is actually something that
can be done to resolve it. I say this with confidence because I know for a fact
that much of the matter is related to outdated customs and traditions. Indeed,
we are no longer living in tribal times where people conquered each other and
women needed protection from harm and enslavement. As such, I’d like to think
that most people share the view that the current guardianship practices – where
a male child may find himself responsible for granting or denying his own mother
the right to travel freely – is illogical and should absolutely be reconsidered.
Saudi Arabia began implementing reforms, such as abolishing slavery and
introducing female education, long before HRW was established in 1978.
Similarly, the reforms will not stop, regardless of whether this New York-based
organization ceases or continues to exist
Yet, instead of focusing on what matters, many were far more interested in
‘shooting the messenger’, arguing that HRW was an ‘agent of a foreign
government’, ‘has a hidden agenda’ or if it ‘was paid by the enemies of the
kingdom’ to release this report.
Now, while such accusations may or may not be true, they will not – even if
proven accurate – eliminate the fact that much of what the report entails is
actually true. Of course, if there are indeed any inaccuracies, then there are
official state bodies and channels which could comment or request a correction
if necessary. Yet, it is far more important for the concerned bodies in the
kingdom to focus their efforts on continuously enhancing and accelerating their
own reforms program. Likewise, human rights groups must understand that Saudi
Arabia began implementing reforms, such as abolishing slavery and introducing
female education, long before HRW was established in 1978. Similarly, the
reforms will not stop, regardless of whether this New York-based organization
ceases or continues to exist.
A bit of progress, but more is definitely needed
As per royal decree, one-third of the Shura Council, Saudi Arabia’s consultative
body, must now consist of women. Furthermore, there has not been a time in Saudi
history where women were more encouraged to be part of the work force, to study
abroad and to excel in different aspects of life. However, the situation – as
even people inside the Saudi government would tell you – is still far from
ideal. In addition to the male guardianship issue, Saudi Arabia remains unique
in its ban on women driving, which is another phenomenon that should be
addressed, given that it also has no religious or legal roots. Of course, some
Saudi female activists may tweet saying that they are in favor of male
guardianship, arguing that this system actually protects them as women. I don’t
agree with this argument, nor should you be led to believe that they speak for
everyone in the kingdom. (A recommended read on this issue is Jasmine Bager’s
recent Time magazine article titled “I am a Saudi women who has a male guardian.
He is my greatest supporter.”) At the same time, it is sad to see some
progressive Saudi women, who were granted state scholarships to study abroad and
offered support to become forces for positive change, actively making-up
conspiracies about the situation. Let’s face it, day-to-day life for Saudi women
is already extremely challenging; as such, there is no need to exaggerate the
reality by falsely claiming – for example - that the local media deliberately
opts to not report on women's rights. In fact, most Saudi media outlets (whether
Arabic or English speaking) are accused by many religious conservatives of being
‘too liberal’ and of promoting ‘Western values’ due to their almost unanimous
stances when it comes to discrimination against women or reporting on issues
that matter to them. We should also remember that women are not the only ones
facing challenges in Saudi Arabia. For example, progress could be achieved when
it comes to the living/working conditions of expats, minorities and issues
relating to enhancing freedom of expression. Of course, we should also remember
that women are not the only ones facing challenges in Saudi Arabia. For example,
progress could be achieved when it comes to the living/working conditions of
expats, minorities and issues relating to enhancing freedom of expression.
Nevertheless, there are many Saudis who wouldn’t want to see anyone, let alone
women, being repressed. Yes, there are those who are ultra-conservative among
us, but at the same time, many men will openly say that they support women
driving and all forms of guardianship on adult females removed. In a nutshell,
there are parts in the recent HRW report that require serious contemplation.
However, if human rights groups want to be taken seriously - and actually help
in resolving the issues they say they care about - then they should invest more
in preventing their work from leading to misleading generalizations. One of the
potential issues that may arise from not carefully phrasing such reports is an
assumption that ALL Saudi women are suffering, and/or that ALL Saudi men agree
with the guardianship system, which is simply untrue. To put this into context:
if you were from the US, how would you feel if we assumed ALL Americans shared
Trump’s degrading views on women, agreed with his views on banning Muslims and
Mexicans, or approved his approach of revoking press accreditation when a media
outlet reports on him critically?
The Republic of fear and
loathing
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/July 24/16
Perilous times have visited America before, and on occasions they did linger for
far too long leaving in their wake shattered lives and human wreckage and
uncertain horizons. The Civil War, the most perilous moment in the history of
the republic and an epic struggle of unfathomable pain and tragedy, is still
lingering on and shaping our existence. The twin catastrophes of the Great
Depression and the Dust Bowl scarred countless lives and the ecology. The
erosion of soil and soul was everywhere to see. The politics of fear and smear
of the McCarthy era, and the with-hunt against mostly imagined domestic enemies
destroyed careers and reputations of many otherwise patriotic Americans.
The social and political upheaval of the 1960’s, spawned by the Civil Rights
Movement and the opposition to the Vietnam War has yet to completely fade away.
The struggle for equal rights under the law was one important battle left
unfinished from the Civil War. These bad times, were good times for scoundrels,
demagogues and racists who spew fearmongering, stoked divisions and played on
people’s legitimate economic and social anxieties. During these hinge moments in
American history, strong leaders and courageous citizens, from Abraham Lincoln
to Martin Luther King fought the good fight and sometimes paid with their lives
to defeat fear and preserve the idea of America, as “a new nation, conceived in
Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.”
An ill wind has swept the land
These are perilous times in America. For the first time since the McCarthy era,
a dark cloud of resentment, fear and loathing has descended on the land. A
diseased election year was brought about by a weak and resentful Republican
Party led by people who are interested more in transient party victories than in
preserving the basic tenet of conservatism, or respecting the letter and the
spirit of the Constitution, thus denigrating America’s long unique and great
experiment in self-government. An ill wind has swept the land in the form of an
orange-faced vile demagogue, a narcissistic and dishonest would-be autocrat.
Donald J. Trump is everything that the founders of the Republic abhorred in a
politician. He is not only ignorant but he wallows in his ignorance when he
boasts that he does not read books. There is no there, there. No American
president was as ill-prepared for the highest office in the land as Donald J.
Trump. He utterly lacks intellectual curiosity, or interest in history.
He is even ignorant of the constitution. He has the temperament and the manners
of rabid pit bull. He has the vocabulary of a ten year old, and the attention
span of a teenager. Trump can never on his own articulate a coherent thought,
but he has an abundance of angry grunts and aggressive attitudes and
braggadocio. He even encouraged violence against his critics during primary
rallies. The man who would like to occupy the office that once was occupied by
Abraham Lincoln the wisest and most honorable of all American presidents, who
uttered the words “With malice toward none, with charity for all…” usually,
speaks with malice towards most and charity towards none.
This is the man; the party of Abraham Lincoln has just nominated as their
standard bearer after four days of an unabashed orgy of fearmongering and
demonization of other Americans and the worst xenophobic rhetoric in decades.
A dystopian world
True to form, Trump began his long speech – it was in fact a long howl- by
outlandish exaggerations. Looking at a sea of white faces (there were only 18
black delegates, at the convention, or roughly 0.7 percent of the 2,472 national
delegates) Trump stoked the ambers of racial tensions and fears in a supposedly
lawless dystopian world where the streets of American cities are rolling
battlefields on which the police are engaging armed criminals and gangs (who
supposedly don’t look like the people who attended his convention), and illegal
immigrants are not only stealing jobs from whites, but along with radical
Islamists are changing our way of life. Trump was invoking life in white,
Christian America in the 1950’s before that world was taken away gradually by
non-whites and non-Christians. And yes, there is a sense of loss in the country.
Many hard working Americans suffer from economic dislocation, as a result of
loss of manufacturing and the new economic harsh realities brought about by the
forces of globalization. Globalization produced a new stratum of dispossessed
and disenfranchised Americans just as the Dust Bowl produced the "Okies".
Donald J. Trump is made in America, and he should be deconstructed on November
8. A republic “conceived in Liberty” cannot be allowed to turn into a republic
of fear
Trump’s tone and words were dark and foreboding. America was in decay and in
decline and waves of invading Visigoths, ISIS’ inspired and sympathizers, and
illegal immigrants from the South, are destroying the ramparts, and he is the
only savior willing and able to deliver America from this new bubonic plague
threatening what was left of American civilization. “Nobody knows the system
better than me” he intoned, “which is why I alone can fix it”. By invoking
Richard Nixon’s divisive and cynical cry of law-and-order of 1968, Trump was
playing on people’s fear of crime and violence and exploiting their anxieties
which were manufactured by exaggerated threats of immigrants, radical Muslims
and minorities. The recent horrific violence in American cities, such as San
Bernardino, Orlando, Dallas and Baton Rouge initiated by Islamists and young
African-Americans fit perfectly in Trump’s narrative. Trump was looking at a
world of different shades and colors, but he wanted to paint it black.
Unfortunately, history shows that this kind of fearmongering and exaggerated
fear can succeed in times of peril and uncertainty, at least initially. But
Trump it seems is incapable of telling the truth. Despite the recent uptick in
violence in some American cities, overall crime rates have been falling steadily
for the last 25 years under Republican and Democratic administrations.
Statistics show that immigrants and their children commit less crime than people
born in the US. Trump assured America that this chaos afflicting the nation will
end soon. “Beginning on Jan.20, 2017, safety will be restored”. How? He does not
say. The Republican convention, was another occasion where people were convinced
to vote against their economic interests, since the underlining reasons for the
alienation and anxieties of many Americans including unemployed middle aged
white men, who are committing suicide in record numbers, are economic in nature
and not related to violence. The speech was full of promises and commitments,
but was very thin on how these promises will be fulfilled, as if he is implying
that by the sheer force of his personality and will, change will take place.
During the speech there were many pauses, scowls and gesticulations reminiscent
of Benito Mussolini.
The new isolationism
Trump’s speech and his interviews during the convention re-affirmed his
dangerous and vacuous understanding of a world rapidly changing. His world view
is in fact a repudiation of traditional Republican views and commitments. He
told the New York Times that he will not pressure the Turkish government, which
is currently conducting an unprecedented witch-hunt against its perceived
domestic opponents and in the process violating their basic rights, before we
“fix our own mess” he said “how are we going to lecture (other countries) when
people are shooting policemen in cold blood?”
Asked about his reaction if Russia attacked any of the NATO members small Baltic
States, Trump said that his decision would be based on whether those nations
“have fulfilled their obligations to us,” if yes, then “the answer is yes”. A
70-year-old alliance, that kept the peace in Europe and won the Cold War, is
reduced to a mere transactional arrangement. In Trump’s not so brave new world,
the United States will not promote Human Rights, and not necessarily deter
aggressive regimes in countries like North Korea, Russia and Iran, or defend the
countries that helped the US to maintain its dominance, militarily, politically
and economically since WWII. These naïve views are a recipe for disaster in a
world where Russia, China and Iran are acting in irredentist and aggressive
fashion against some of their neighbors.
Cavorting with Lucifer?
Trump and his lieutenants repeatedly savaged his Democratic opponent Hillary
Clinton and all but declared her as the Devil incarnate. Wild chants of “lock
her up” or “Hillary for prison” were the background chorus to many speeches. In
fact, Ben Carson, former candidate for the presidency that Trump dispatched to
early retirement accused Clinton of cavorting with Lucifer.” Are we willing to
elect someone as president who has as their role model someone who acknowledges
Lucifer?” Mr. Carson asked. “Think about that”.
The sinister demonization of Hillary Clinton during the Republican convention,
has made criticizing her more difficult than before. Clinton is a deeply flawed
politician whose relation with the truth is problematic and who suffers from a
big deficit of trust, gives her critics ample ammunition to criticize her
without resort to demonization. Clinton’s willingness to play by her own rules,
as was clear in the way she deceptively handled her reckless use of a private
server for her own emails outside the purview of the State Department is
breathtakingly arrogant, but the way the Republicans smeared her make a
legitimate critique of her behavior as secretary of state less effective during
the incessant drumbeat to politically lynch her.
Trump himself made Clinton a sort of milestone to measure history; how the world
was before and after Hillary Clinton. “Let’s review the record. In 2009,
pre-Hillary, ISIS was not even on the map. Libya was stable. Egypt was peaceful.
Iraq was seeing a big, big reduction in violence. Iran was being choked by
sanctions. Syria was somewhat under control.” But then came Hillary Clinton,
“what do we have? ISIS has spread across the region, and the world. Libya is in
ruins, and our Ambassador and his staff were left helpless to die at the hands
of savage killers. Egypt was turned over to the radical Muslim brotherhood,
forcing the military to retake control.” Trump continues to chronicles the nasty
work of Lucifer “Iraq is in chaos. Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons. Syria
is engulfed in a civil war and a refugee crisis that now threatens the West.”
The year of voting dangerously
These are indeed perilous times, and it is conceivable that the American voters
will elect Trump, which will not be the first or the last catastrophic decision
made by voters in the United States and beyond. These are the perils of
elections during perilous times. If elected, Donald J. Trump, by virtue of his
explosive temperament, persona, and intellectual and political shallowness, will
be a clear and present danger to America and the world. Even before
globalization and the advent of the digital age, the world was very complex and
very resistant to the type of simplistic notions and views espoused by Trump.
Donald J. Trump is made in America, and he should be deconstructed on November
8. A republic “conceived in Liberty” cannot be allowed to turn into a republic
of fear by scoundrels and demagogues who claim that we are living in time of the
plague. This is indeed the year of voting dangerously.
The mutating face of
terrorism in the West
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/July 24/16
We are now facing two types of terrorist attacks in the West. The first is
organized with suicide bombers managed by those who have recruited and
brainwashed them. Those brainwashers received their training from the core of
terrorist organizations, primarily ISIS, as now al-Qaeda has mostly become a
shadow terrorist groups in terms of its global presence. Those who commit the
terrorist attacks, even without killing themselves, can be considered as
“martyrs” by their group as police have been shooting to kill. These terrorist
attacks are well organized. But at the same time that can be prevented through
the work of security services. Their names are commonly known and are supervised
by security services until a certain moment when they act to prevent the
realization of the bloody plot and save lives. But sometimes they fail and lose
the right moment, when the terrorists appear to be faster. Sometimes it happens
because of ineffectiveness of the taken measures, or ineffectiveness of the
security services themselves which in Europe suffer quite often from a lack of
financial and human resources. The threats are growing, while governments appear
too slow in reacting to the changes. Charlie Hebdo, the Paris attacks, the
Brussels and Istanbul airport bombings; these attacks all pose a major threat to
stability, as they show the problems in the work of security and special forces
which leads to fearful societies in disarray.
Safety in split societies
The lone-wolf terrorists are the other type. And these kind pose a major threat
to the safety of civilians, but are not a geopolitical threat. They destroy the
feeling of safety that forms the basis of life West and thus threatens democracy
and freedom. They act as a regular disturbing element.
Even when it seems that everything is safe, there is still a chance that
something can happen because the threat doesn't come from a group of people, but
from a single person. He could be your neighbor, the vendor in your bakery or a
truck driver. Such attacks raise also raise deep concerns of splitting
societies, especially if the perpetrator originates from a foreign country. The
threats are growing, while governments appear too slow in reacting to the
changes. Lone-wolf attacks are used by terrorist organizations as a means of
self-PR. ISIS took responsibility for the Nice truck attack, although
authorities have doubted this is the case. Still, their claim of the attack
attracted international press attention – exactly what they wanted, to divert
attention away from news of the militant group losing territory in Iraq and
Syria and to show that ISIS killers have infiltrated western societies.
It’s likely that ISIS would have claimed responsibility for the Munich shooting
this week had the attacker not been revealed as a German-Iranian who was
fascinated by violence and mass killings. At the same time. the threat of
lone-wolf ISIS-inspired attacks should not be swept under the rug. These
attackers are typically revealed to have mental illnesses. Being not properly
integrated in societies, people lose hope and are time bombs even if they are
not ISIS supporters or targets of militant propaganda. The current trend shows
that the words of French PM Manuel Valls, that there will be new attacks, are
absolutely right. And those who should be partly blamed for these dramatic
trends are mostly no longer in power.