LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 30/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
Divisions in the Church
01 Corinthians 01/10-17: “By the authority of our Lord Jesus Christ I appeal to all of you, my friends, to agree in what you say, so that there will be no divisions among you. Be completely united, with only one thought and one purpose. For some people from Chloe’s family have told me quite plainly, my friends, that there are quarrels among you. Let me put it this way: each one of you says something different. One says, “I follow Paul”; another, “I follow Apollos”; another, “I follow Peter”; and another, “I follow Christ.” Christ has been divided into groups! Was it Paul who died on the cross for you? Were you baptized as Paul’s disciples? I thank God that I did not baptize any of you except Crispus and Gaius. No one can say, then, that you were baptized as my disciples. Oh yes, I also baptized Stephanas and his family; but I can’t remember whether I baptized anyone else.) Christ did not send me to baptize. He sent me to tell the Good News, and to tell it without using the language of human wisdom, in order to make sure that Christ’s death on the cross is not robbed of its power..

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 29-30/16
Meet one of Hezbollah's teen fighters/Mona Alami/Al-Monitor/January 29/16
True or false/Michael Young/Now Lebanon/January 29/16
Will Iranians be able to increase voter turnout in the next election/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 29/16
Iranians launch boycott of Saudi businesses/Masoud Lavasani/Al-Monitor/January 29/16
Why Turkey and Iran are two odd allies/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/January 29/16
Ceasefire first, Geneva talks second/Mohamed Chebarro/Al Arabiya/January 29/16
Who benefits from restrictions on Lebanese banks/Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/January 29/16
Why Turkey and Iran are two odd allies/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/January 29/16

Lebanese Related News published on january 29-30/16
Nasrallah Renews Adherence to Aoun, Says Ready to 'Go to Parliament Tomorrow' if His Election Guaranteed
Bassil: No Partisan Interests Were Involved in Military Council Appointments
Jumblat Hints 'Syrian-Iranian Team' Putting Obstacles to New Eletoral Law
ISF Says Man Held for Murdering Palestinian Official in Shatila
Arsal Residents Flee to Baalbek as Deadly Nusra-IS Clashes Renew in Outskirts
Shells from Syria Land near Homes in Akkar's Mashta Hammoud
Spy Device Discovered in Adaisseh
Geagea: Maarab Rapprochement Step Closer to Taef, No Dialogue with Hizbullah
Israel: 'Spy' Bird Returns Home after UNIFIL Mediation
Police Arrest Human Traffickers in Bekaa
Report: SIC Monitoring Activities of Suspicious Saudi Nationals, Companies
Dialogue Resumes between Kataeb and Hizbullah
Aoun Hails FPM-Hizbullah Alliance, Snaps Back at Franjieh on Christian Representation
Paris, Tehran to Consolidate Stability of 'Friendly' Lebanon
Meet one of Hezbollah's teen fighters
FSA founder: We have “many Iranian, Hezbollah prisoners”

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january 29-30/16
Suicide Attack Kills 4 at Mosque in Saudi Shiite Region
Riyadh Welcomes Syrian Opposition's Decision to Go to Geneva
Report: Iran coerces Afghans to fight in Syria
Iran President Pessimistic on Syrian Peace Process
France to Revive Plans for Israeli-Palestinian Peace Conference
Diplomats, Fighters Head Delegations to Syria Peace Talks
EU Border Agency Sees Fewer Syrians Arriving in Greece
Netherlands to Join U.S.-led Airstrikes in Syria
Anti-IS Alliance to Meet in Rome
At Least 10 Dead in NE Nigeria Suicide Bombing
Syrian Opposition Decides to Join Peace Talks as Geneva Meetings Kick Off
Hamas Ready for Fresh Conflict with Israel, Says Gaza Chief
Report: U.S., UK Hacked into Israeli Air Surveillance
Tunisian president: We stand by Saudi and GCC to repel any threat
France to recognise Palestinian state if deadlock with Israel not broken

Links From Jihad Watch Site for january 29-30/16
Raymond Ibrahim: “Christian Girls Are Only Meant for the Pleasure of Muslim Men”.
Leading Saudi cleric says Islamic State and Saudi Arabia “follow the same thought”.
Alcohol banned in UK government building: under Sharia because of secret deal to finance Islamic bond scheme.
Hugh Fitzgerald: No Need To Play The Dhimmi.
Iranian drone flew over US carrier — Navy says it was “abnormal and unprofessional”.
The ‘Same God’ Question (Part 1).
Glenn Greenwald yet again falsely claims story of US Muslim arrested in Turkish raid on Islamic State cell was false.
Egypt: Homemade bomb placed near Coptic Christian church.
Raymond Ibrahim: When Muslims Mutilate Themselves for Allah.
Police in German city accused of allowing Muslim migrants to shoplift.
Panic at Disneyland Paris: Muslim with two handguns and copy of the Qur’an arrested.
Hugh Fitzgerald: Schengenland And Its Discontents.
The hypnotic dance of death.
Anni Cyrus Moment: Sentenced to Stoning in the Islamic Republic.

Nasrallah Renews Adherence to Aoun, Says Ready to 'Go to Parliament Tomorrow' if His Election Guaranteed
Naharnet/January 29/16/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah reiterated Friday his party's “ethical and political commitment” to Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun's presidential nomination, expressing willingness to elect him “tomorrow.”“We have an ethical and political commitment to support General Aoun's nomination and ever since we allied with him, he has not erred against us,” said Nasrallah in a televised speech dedicated to the presidential issue. “Even if another dear friend is nominated, it will not push me to renounce my ethical commitment to General Aoun, and this does not mean that (Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman) Franjieh does not deserve to become president,” Nasrallah added. “We honor our commitments even if we lose politically,” Nasrallah stressed, noting that Hizbullah would only consider backing another candidate should Aoun voluntarily decide to withdraw from the race.
Addressing Marada's supporters, Nasrallah said Hizbullah would have taken the same stance had it committed to Franjieh's nomination a year and a half ago. He urged further “dialogue, communication and discussions,” calling for “a real understanding aimed at electing a president who enjoys consensus without giving the impression that a camp has won over another.” “We are not with rushing things and the issues are moving forward on the basis of internal dialogue,” Nasrallah added. Denying claims that Hizbullah is seeking to maintain the presidential vacuum, Hizbullah's chief noted that his party would head to parliament “tomorrow” if it guarantees that Aoun would be elected president -- even without any so-called “package settlement.” “We would go to parliament and take part in the elections and we would not demand a package settlement, a constituent assembly or constitutional amendments. Our demands from the package settlement have been fulfilled seeing as both candidates are from March 8,” he noted. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor. The blocs of Aoun and Hizbullah and some of their allies have been boycotting the electoral sessions. Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Franjieh as president. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Hariri's ally in the March 14 camp, was a presidential candidate at the time and some observers have said that the LF leader has recently nominated Aoun for the presidency as a “reaction” to Hariri's proposal, a claim Geagea has denied. Nasrallah noted Friday that Hizbullah was “pleased” by Geagea's endorsement of Aoun's presidential bid. “We trust our ally General Aoun and he is free to sit with whomever he wants. We will not be bothered if our rival supports one of our allies, because the other camp is the one confused while we have confidence in our domestic and regional situations,” Nasrallah added.“We support any agreement between any two Lebanese groups,” he said. “Our alliances are not only based on political interests but also on trust and friendship,” Nasrallah stated. Reminiscing the period during which Hariri met with Franjieh in Paris, Nasrallah revealed that he had told the Marada chief that no decision could be taken without consultations with Aoun in the long run. “When he told us about the Paris meeting, we asked him to be cautious because certain parties might seek to sow discord between him and Aoun or between Hizbullah and Aoun. When Franjieh asked about our camp's response if the proposal was serious, we told him that that would be a new development that we would have to discuss with General Aoun,” Nasrallah explained. “We told him that we trust him and that we believe that he has the needed characteristics while noting that we are politically and morally committed to Aoun's nomination and that the issue needs to be discussed with him,” he went on to say. Nasrallah also criticized “the manner in which the issue was addressed and the leaks to the media” that “prevented any real or serious dialogue.” “The leaks created ambiguity and the way the issue was addressed from Paris created negative repercussions in the both March 8 and the March 14 camps. Many leaks occurred but I only believe what Franjieh told me,” he added.

Bassil: No Partisan Interests Were Involved in Military Council Appointments
Naharnet/January 29/16/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil hailed on Friday the cabinet's success in approving the Military Council appointments after months of disputes. He said during a press conference: “No partisan interests were involved in approving the appointments.” “Thursday's approval of this issue is a recognition of a main component of cabinet,” he added. “We however lament the failure to appoint a new army commander even though we were compensated for this with the Military Council appointments,” said the minister from the Foreign Ministry. “We have achieved some of our demands and insist on achieving the rest,” Bassil continued. “The cabinet's work was revitalized on the basis of consensus, which helps us to manage the country's affairs,” he noted. The government approved on Thursday the appointment of three Military Council officers, a long-time demand of the Free Patriotic Movement, which along with Hizbullah and the Tashnag Party have boycotted recent cabinet sessions. The three Military Council posts -- reserved for a Shiite, a Greek Orthodox and a Catholic -- have been vacant for the past two years. The appointed officers were identified as Mohsen Fneish, George Shreim and Samir al-Hajj. The Kataeb Party and Telecom Minister Boutros Harb had warned that they would reject the appointments under the excuse that the names suggested do not meet the standards of the military institution.

Jumblat Hints 'Syrian-Iranian Team' Putting Obstacles to New Eletoral Law
Naharnet/January 29/16/Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat ruled out the possibility to hold presidential elections over differences between the rival factions on a compromise candidate and accused the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance of stalling an agreement on the electoral draft-law. Jumblat told An Nahar daily published on Friday that the presidential elections will not be held anytime soon.Lebanon has been without a head of state since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May 2014. The vacuum has crippled state institutions. Earlier this month, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea withdrew from the presidential race in favor of Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun. Despite the rapprochement between them, Lebanon's rival parties failed to throw their support behind the lawmaker. Jumblat also told the newspaper that the differences on an electoral law will not be resolved soon. “The Syrian-Iranian team will not accept not to have the absolute majority in parliament,” he said about the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance. A parliamentary committee tasked with drafting a new electoral law concluded its meetings Thursday and is set to refer a report to the parliament, MP George Adwan, the committee's chairman, said. The lawmaker told the National News Agency that the committee members have agreed to adopt a hybrid electoral law. Several factions reject the 1960 law, which ruled the last parliamentary elections that were held in 2009. “The longer we wait ... the more state institutions will wear out,” Jumblat warned in his remarks to An Nahar. The failure to elect a president has left most institutions paralyzed.

ISF Says Man Held for Murdering Palestinian Official in Shatila
Naharnet/January 29/16/The Internal Security Forces announced Friday the arrest of a Palestinian young man on charges of killing a Fatah al-Intifada official at the Shatila Palestinian refugee camp on Beirut's southern peripheries. “Only hours after the crime on Thursday, and following investigations by the ISF's Intelligence Branch, the shooter was identified as M. Q., a 22-year-old Palestinian national,” the ISF said in a statement. “He has confessed to committing the crime with an assault weapon and for personal motives,” it added. “The probe is ongoing under the supervision of the relevant judicial authorities,” the ISF said.Fatah al-Intifada official Ahmed Hazini, who was in charge of the so-called security committee at the Shatila camp, was found killed at dawn Thursday.

Arsal Residents Flee to Baalbek as Deadly Nusra-IS Clashes Renew in Outskirts
Naharnet/January 29/16/Fierce clashes renewed at noon Friday between the al-Nusra Front and Islamic State rival jihadist groups in the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal, state-run National News Agency reported. The violent fighting has left several militants dead and wounded from both groups. The clashes spread to most areas in Arsal's outskirts and in Syria's Qalamoun where al-Nusra and IS have posts. NNA said there was ongoing fighting in al-Zamarani, Wadi al-Kheil, Khirbet al-Hosn, Qurnet al-Oueini, al-Malahi, Dahr al-Lizzabeh and al-Jarajir. Meanwhile, the town of Arsal was witnessing “tensions between the residents and the militants,” the agency reported. It also said the Lebanese army went on alert in the area and was intermittently shelling movements by the militants in Ras Baalbek's outskirts. Later on Friday, NNA said the IS-Nusra clashes in Arsal's outskirts have resulted in the "death of five Nusra militants and the capture of six" at the hands of the IS. The IS has also seized control of a Nusra camp between the areas of al-Malahi and Khirbet Hamam, the agency added. Several IS militants were also killed in the fighting, including a senior official called Abou Maria, NNA said. Expecting a nighttime intensification of the battles, several Arsal residents fled to the Bekaa city of Baalbek where they have relatives, the agency reported. A truce had been reached overnight between the two jihadists groups, according to media reports. The Lebanese army has shelled the posts and movements of both groups during the clashes between them in recent days. Several Nusra militants were killed or wounded overnight when the army targeted their vehicle that was moving in Arsal's outskirts. According to al-Akhbar newspaper, the jihadist fighting first erupted after al-Nusra launched a surprise attack against the IS group along the Lebanese-Syrian border as a result of the siege laid by the Lebanese army and Hizbullah against the two groups. The clashes, which have left scores dead and injured, have been described as the bloodiest between the rival extremists. The militants of al-Nusra and the IS clash with the army occasionally but a major confrontation erupted in August 2014 when the two groups overran Arsal.

Shells from Syria Land near Homes in Akkar's Mashta Hammoud
Naharnet/January 29/16/Five shells fired from Syria landed Friday in the outskirts of the Akkar border town of Mashta Hammoud, causing no casualties, state-run National News Agency reported. The projectiles “fell near homes and two of them struck the garden of the house of the head of the Lebanese expat community in Britain, Hayel Khazaal, sparking panic among the residents,” NNA said. Ever since the Syrian conflict erupted in 2011, many regions in northern and eastern Lebanon have come under shelling from the Syrian side of the border.
The border violence has left several people dead and scores others wounded inside Lebanon.

Spy Device Discovered in Adaisseh
Naharnet/January 29/16/A spy device was discovered on Friday in the southern region of al-Adaisseh, reported the National News Agency. It said that it was found near the border fence with Israel in a disputed area known as al-Mahafeer. The device carries a camera and was placed on the ground. Members of the army, United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, and security forces soon deployed in the area. Israeli soldiers meanwhile were seen on the other side of the border as they surveyed the scene. Israeli espionage devices are often discovered in southern areas. In December, the army dismantled an Israeli espionage device in the vicinity of the town of Toulin in the Marjeyoun district. Two people were lightly wounded earlier that month when Israel blew up a spy device planted on the Marjeyoun Plain road. In September 2014, Hizbullah military expert Hussein Haidar was killed as an Israeli drone remotely detonated a spy device he was dismantling in the southern coastal town of Adloun.

Geagea: Maarab Rapprochement Step Closer to Taef, No Dialogue with Hizbullah
Naharnet/January 29/16/Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geaega said that he anticipated the Maarab rapprochement with founder of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun to be one step in support of the Taef accord as he stressed there was no dialogue between the LF and Hizbullah. “The Maarab rapprochement is one of the major steps in support of the Taef accord for the next phase,” he told al-Riyadh daily in an interview on Friday. Geagea stressed that the nomination of Change and Reform bloc leader Aoun came after thorough political negotiations that reiterated adherence to the Taef agreement which was reached in 1989 to end the decades-long Lebanese Civil War. Early this month in Maarab, Geagea of the March 14 camp endorsed Aoun of March 8 for the presidency, withdrawing his own nomination in favor of the MP. Geagea said: “The ten points that we agreed upon (during the nomination of Aoun) have proven our adherence to coexistence.”On reports claiming that his relations with March 14 camp were shaken following Aoun's nomination, he said: “There is no dissociation inside March 14. This is far from reality. It is true that political contacts with former PM Saad Harri are somewhat cold, but that does not spoil friendliness. “The Coalition will continue as it has always been regardless of what can be achieved in that matter.” He stressed that the reconciliation with Aoun was the right thing to do. “I was expecting this step to be generally welcomed by everyone because everyone was insisting in the last ten years on reconciliation with the FPM.”On his relations with Hizbullah the LF leader stated that there is no ongoing dialogue between the two, refusing to link the timing of the presidential elections to the situation in Syria. He also rejected Hizbullah's proposal to agree on several issues in “one basket” that included the presidency, the cabinet and parliamentary elections. Lebanon is witnessing a state of presidential vacuum, parliamentary dysfunction and a cabinet paralysis that only restored functions recently. “It is something we totally reject. The presidential elections only mean electing a president. Why link it to other issues such as the activation of the government?” he asked. Expressing astonishment at Hizbullah's delay in backing the nomination of Aoun, he said: “Hizbullah spent one year and eight months emphasizing that it is backing the MP for the top state post. Today, the necessary preparations are over at the Christian level, and the majority of Christians now support him. I don't know what is hindering the party to speed up the steps to elect him?”

Israel: 'Spy' Bird Returns Home after UNIFIL Mediation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/A vulture captured in Lebanon on suspicion of spying for Israel has been returned home with the help of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, Israeli authorities said Friday. "In a discreet operation with the Lebanese and with the great help of U.N. forces and the U.N. liaison unit, the Israel Nature and Parks Authority was able to return the vulture that was caught a few days ago by villagers of Bint Jbeil, Lebanon," a statement said. The U.N. acted as a go-between in negotiations between the Lebanese and the Gamla Nature Reserve where the bird lived before it flew across the border, it said. "The attempts were successful and yesterday evening at a meeting at the border at Rosh Hanikra the vulture was returned in reasonable health by U.N. officers," the statement said. The bird was "said to be weak and with minor injuries" and had been taken for treatment. The Nature and Parks Authority issued a photograph of the bird being handed over by uniformed members of the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL. It had first raised concerns over the vulture on Tuesday after images shared on social media appeared to show the bird with an Israeli identification ring and location transmitter captured by the villagers. The authority at the time said the villagers had suspected espionage due to the transmitter but the bintjbeil.org news portal said the bird had been freed after it was deemed not to pose any threat. The vulture had crossed the border some days before and flown about four kilometers into Lebanon, said the statement.Israel and Lebanon are technically at war and the UNIFIL peacekeepers monitor their disputed border. Citizens of the two countries are banned from communicating by law. Conspiracy theories are endemic in the Middle East, particularly when it comes to Israel's spying activities. Last summer, Palestinian media reported claims by the Gaza Strip's Hamas rulers that they had apprehended a dolphin off their Mediterranean coastline, equipped with video cameras for an Israeli spying mission.
In 2011, Saudi media reported that a vulture carrying a GPS transmitter and an identification ring from Tel Aviv University had been detained by security forces who suspected it was being used for espionage. But on many occasions, Hizbullah and the Lebanese army have found spying devices in southern Lebanon and elsewhere.

Police Arrest Human Traffickers in Bekaa
Naharnet/January 29/16/The Internal Security Forces said Friday they have arrested a gang that smuggles Syrians to Lebanon and kidnaps them for the purpose of blackmailing their families. An ISF communique said that police raided an encampment in the town of al-Rawda in the eastern Bekaa Valley on Tuesday and arrested four members of the gang. ISF officers set free three Syrians who were held captive inside a tent in al-Rawda, it said. The suspects admitted to police that they had smuggled the three captives, in addition to other Syrians, with a Lebanese accomplice, who remains at large. The gang members blackmailed them by taking their identification cards and by telephoning their families in Syria to ask for cash amounting to 1,500 dollars to allegedly settle their residency issues legally. The suspects have been referred to the judiciary on charges of trafficking in persons, said the ISF communique. It added that the three captives were referred to General Security to take the appropriate legal measures against them.

Report: SIC Monitoring Activities of Suspicious Saudi Nationals, Companies
Naharnet/January 29/16/Lebanon's Financial Intelligence Unit has asked banks based in the country to provide it with details on the accounts of around 17 Saudi citizens, companies and associations that are allegedly members of a U.S. list of terror-linked suspects, al-Akhbar daily reported Friday. The newspaper said that the Special Investigation Commission (SIC) also asked the banks to “take precautionary measures while dealing” with the 17 entities. The SIC receives, analyzes and investigates suspicious transaction reports, and ensures the compliance of banks, financial institutions and other reporting entities with rules and regulations. Washington suspects that the Saudi businessmen and companies owned or managed by them have been linked to the funding of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, said the newspaper. According to al-Akhbar, the six people mentioned on the list are Sharif Sedqi, Suleiman Abdul Aziz al-Rajehi, Yassine al-Qadi, Abdul Rahman Khaled Salim bin Mahfouz, Salem Ahmed bin Mahfouz and Sultan Iman bin Mahfouz. Among the companies are SAAR Foundation and Sedqi and Co, it said.

Dialogue Resumes between Kataeb and Hizbullah
Naharnet/January 29/16/Kataeb deputy chief Salim al-Sayegh said on Friday that the dialogue between the party and Hizbullah was launched years ago and that it has somewhat ceased during the preparations for the Kataeb elections, assuring that the meetings will resume this week. “Dialogue between the Kataeb and Hizbullah started years ago, particularly following the visit made by (former) President Amin Gemayel to (Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah after the martyrdom of (his son) Pierre Gemeyel,” Sayegh told al-Akhbar daily. The former minister assured that the “meetings have carried on one way or another either through the parliament or through bilateral meetings between MPs and Hizbullah officials such as MP Elie Marouni, myself, MPs Ali Fayyad, Nawaf al-Moussawi and Ibrahim al-Mousawi. “Some meetings were even attended by Sheikh Sami Gemayel.” Sayegh added: “Hizbullah has grown an interest in getting to know Sheikh Sami after he became the party's head, which is crucial. However the meetings were stalled before the Kataeb conference because we were busy with the preparations for the elections. But now we will reactivate these meetings.” The two parties have been holding occasional rounds of dialogue. They were first revealed in the wake of MP Sami Gemayel's election as Kataeb president in June 2015. Pierre Gemayel was assassinated on November 21, 2006, when gunmen opened fired at his car in the Northern Metn district of Jdeideh, killing the then industry minister.

Aoun Hails FPM-Hizbullah Alliance, Snaps Back at Franjieh on Christian Representation
Naharnet/January 29/16/The founder of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Michel Aoun, held onto his strong alliance with Hizbullah ahead of a televised speech that the party leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to make on Friday. “The Sayyed and I are one,” Aoun said. “There is an integrated existence between us.” Hizbullah has been mum since Lebanese Forces chief Samir Gaegea endorsed the candidacy of Aoun for the presidency earlier this month. Both men are long-time rivals. Nasrallah's televised address on Friday is expected to focus on the issue to end speculation whether Hizbullah continues to consider Aoun the only candidate of the March 8 alliance. Another member of the alliance, Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh, is backed by the head of the March 14 coalition al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. Franjieh is rejecting to drop his candidacy in favor of Aoun, a sign that the presidential deadlock, which started following the end of Michel Suleiman's term in May 2014, will not end anytime soon. Aoun was asked by al-Akhbar daily whether he would seek to bring the LF and Hizbullah closer, the MP replied: “They will surely talk to each other.”He said the agreement he reached with the LF is in the “nation's interest” and goes “beyond the presidential elections.” “We are working to create a balance in the implementation of the Taef Accord, which we are keen on activating,” the head of the Change and Reform bloc told the newspaper. “We now represent the absolute majority of Christians … maybe more than 80 percent,” he said. Asked to respond to a comment made by Franjieh that he has the majority of votes in parliament, Aoun said: “Results are given after counting the votes and not beforehand.”“Why should someone with 70 votes step down for someone with 40 votes?," Franjieh asked Friday.

Paris, Tehran to Consolidate Stability of 'Friendly' Lebanon
Naharnet/January 29/16/French President Francois Hollande and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani have reached an agreement on consolidating stability in Lebanon, An Nahar daily reported on Friday. The newspaper's correspondent said Hollande and Rouhani discussed the situation in Lebanon during the meeting they held in Paris on Thursday. “It seems there is an understanding between the two countries to consolidate stability in Lebanon,” he said.“Lebanon is witnessing a cautious calm and the situation is tense,” Hollande said at a press conference with Rouhani. “It is up to France to preserve its stability, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.” “France and Iran should seek to end the constitutional vacuum,” he added. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014. The Iranian president said the two countries should work together “to help Lebanon come out of instability.”He also described the Lebanese as “friendly people.”Rouhani's talks with Hollande also touched on Iran's role in Syria, where Tehran is backing President Bashar Assad in a war that has killed 260,000 people. Rouhani had begun his European visit in Italy. The trip is an effort to usher in a new era after a landmark accord to curb Iran's nuclear program and lift Western sanctions. However, France is now weighing new sanctions over Iranian ballistic missile tests.

Meet one of Hezbollah's teen fighters
Mona Alami/Al-Monitor/January 29/16
BEKAA VALLEY, Lebanon — Since it erupted in March 2011, the Syrian war has seen heavy involvement by Lebanese Hezbollah, which has increased its presence there since 2013 to prop up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Military sources close to Hezbollah estimate that the militant group may have deployed 7,000 to 9,000 fighters in Syria, specifically in areas around Damascus. The civil conflict has caused a large number of casualties among its ranks, with around 1,300 fighters killed in the last five years, according to the news website Ya Libnan.
In May 2015, the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech that his fighters would expand their presence in Syria. With the increasing participation of Hezbollah fighters on various fronts from the north to the south of Syria, the militant group is relying more and more on youth from the Bekaa Valley, in south Lebanon and Beirut, the military sources told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
These sources underline that Hezbollah is relying on younger recruits for several reasons, the biggest being that the party does want to focus all its resources on Syria and wants to keep some of its old guard for the protection of the southern front line in Lebanon.
Al-Monitor met with one of Hezbollah’s young recruits in the Bekaa Valley. He said he was on a brief break in Lebanon from deployment in Syria and spoke under the pseudonym "Abu Ali Karbal," as he is not allowed to talk to the press. The text of the interview follows:
Al-Monitor: How old are you and how long have you been with Hezbollah?
Karbal: I am 18. I joined Hezbollah a year and a half ago.
Al-Monitor: Why did you want to join the organization?
Karbal: To wage jihad in Syria. It is my religious duty to fight there. It is the duty of every Muslim. It will also ensure my salvation after my death.
Al-Monitor: Why do you want to wage jihad?
Karbal: I have always been religious. As a child, I used to attend religious majlis [religion classes at the mosque], where they explained to us the duties of a good Muslim. I think I have been ready to die for a long time, and when the war in Syria broke out, it was clear to me it was a war of good against evil. The takfiris in Syria were attacking our holy sites, our Mouqadassat, which are our most sacred places, such as the Sayyida Zeinab pilgrimage site. We could not let that happen.
Al-Monitor: Did you tell your parents you wanted to go and fight in Syria? Did they agree to their son becoming a mujahedeen?
Karbal: No, I did not tell them initially and did not seek their permission. They were against the idea of me fighting in Syria when they discovered that I was training for war in Syria.
Al-Monitor: Are many of your friends fighting in Syria? If not, do you encourage them to join the war there?
Karbal: Yes, many of my friends are fighting there. Actually, from each village, there are dozens fighting. I do encourage my friends to fight in Syria; it is their Mulsim duty. But jihad does not necessarily entail a military aspect. There is also "jihad al-nafs" [jihad against oneself]. Some people can only practice this last form of jihad. For example, if you are living abroad and you can’t fight, you can send money or aid to the resistance.
Al-Monitor: What type of training did you receive from Hezbollah?
Karbal: We are submitted to three trainings. The first is a religious training. We are taught about jihad and about the goal of the war in Syria, which is the protection of our holy sites. We are also taught to treat prisoners fairly, to avoid torturing them and not desecrate our enemies’ bodies. Our religion does not allow it. The second training lasts for 45 days and entails a physical training, during which we are taught fighting techniques as well as the use of weapons, such as the Kalashnikov, the PKC, the Dragunov and the equivalent of B7s, along with other weapons. The third part of our training includes short periods of deployment in Syria.
Al-Monitor: How do you treat Syrian opposition fighters when you take them as prisoners?
Karbal: We hand them over to the Syrian army.
Al-Monitor: Where were you deployed? And where will you be deployed next?
Karbal: In the Zabadani area. I cannot divulge where I will be deployed next.
Al-Monitor: What is your current role?
Karbal: I participate in battles intermittently, but my primary role is to follow my units and ensure they are adequately supplied with weapons.
Al-Monitor: How big is your unit?
Karbal: It is composed of 1,200 men.
Al-Monitor: Are the people in your unit all Lebanese or Syrians, or does it include other factions from other countries?
Karbal: I prefer not to answer this question.
Al-Monitor: What is the role of Hezbollah in this unit?
Karbal: Hezbollah manages and leads military operations; we do the bulk of the work during battles. The Syrians are sort of our GPS; they tell us about the area, its topography and the people who live there. They also fight under Hezbollah’s orders.
Al-Monitor: Do you trust the Syrians working with you?
Karbal: Cooperation has certainly improved, but we do find double agents every now and then. We do not trust them 100%.
Al-Monitor: What role do Iranians play in these battles? Have you interacted with many Iranians?
Karbal: Personally, no. I know they play a role at a higher level; they are also involved in logistics, especially in the medical field. They have great doctors who have saved many lives.
Al-Monitor: When Hezbollah talks about Syria, they say that the rebellion is mostly comprised of foreign fighters. How many foreign fighters have you encountered during battles?
Karbal: Very few. There are some, but most fighters are Syrians.
Al-Monitor: In Zabadani, where you were previously deployed, most fighters belonged to Ahrar al-Sham, which is a Syrian Muslim faction. Are you fine with fighting other fellow Muslims? Have you ever thought that these fighters might have justified grievances against the regime of President Assad?
Karbal: No, those we are fighting are not true Muslims. You cannot be a Muslim and try to burn another Muslim’s religious site. They carry the Muslim declaration of faith, “There is no God but God,” and they burn down our mosques. This is not the work of a Muslim. During battles, you fire at them and they keep on coming; they are on drugs. I also don’t understand their grievances. President Assad is a very good and fair man. He gave his people free education, free medical care — what more do they want?
Al-Monitor: Do you think your job is to protect Shiite holy sites or to prop up the regime of President Assad?
Karbal: If President Assad wanted to crush the rebellion, he could have eradicated them on his own. But he is trying to do the right thing. There is an international plan to topple Assad because he is good, and because they want to break the Hezbollah-Iranian axis, but we are preventing that from happening.
Al-Monitor: What happens when you go back to Lebanon, and more importantly, will you go back to fight in Syria?
Karbal: When I am in Lebanon, I go back for the time of my respite to my normal life. I see my family, I hang out with friends. But I have to go back. … Also, what is happening in Syria today is a repetition of what happened over 1,000 years ago during the battle of Karbala, which ended with the killing of [Imam] Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. Imam Hussein was killed by the Umayyad Caliph, which heralded the schism between Sunnis and Shiites. We will not allow that to happen another time.

FSA founder: We have “many Iranian, Hezbollah prisoners”
BEIRUT –Now Lebanon/January 29/16/ A founder of the FSA claimed in remarks published Friday that factions affiliated with the rebel organization have taken prisoner a “large number” of Iranian and Hezbollah combatants. Colonel Riad al-Asaad—who defected from the Syrian Air Force in July 2011—told Al-Hayat that FSA groups have in their custody not only Iranian and Hezbollah troops, but also members of Iraqi militias fighting on behalf of the Syrian regime. Although Asaad—who maintains a mainly symbolic role as the commander-in-chief of the FSA—did not go into detail on how many of these men had been taken prisoner, he did say that there were officers among them, including an Iranian captain. In response to a question about the fate of these prisoners, Asaad said: “We treat the prisoners that are in our hands well and we provide them with protection from certain parties that try to kill them so that they can accuse the FSA of killing its prisoners.”Asaad played a key role in establishing the formal FSA in July 2011, however his position as leader of the rebel organization was eclipsed in late 2012 with the formation of the FSA’s Supreme Military Council.
In March 2013, the FSA figure lost his leg following a car bombing in the Deir Ezzor town of Al-Mayadeen.

Suicide Attack Kills 4 at Mosque in Saudi Shiite Region
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/A suicide bomber attacked a mosque in Shiite-populated eastern Saudi Arabia during Friday prayers, killing four people before worshipers disarmed and tied up his accomplice who had fired on them. The state Al-Ekhbariya news channel quoted an interior ministry spokesman as saying four people died and 18 were wounded. An initial ministry toll said two people were killed and seven hurt in the attack at the Al-Rida mosque in Mahasen, a neighborhood in the eastern Al-Ahsa region. "We started to pray, and then we were surprised to hear shooting," said Mohammad bin Salman al-Ahmadi, 25, who was slightly injured in the attack. "We rushed and closed the doors. After that they shot at the door trying to break in. The suicide bomber blew himself up and the door flew open."Power inside went out, leaving the mosque in darkness and filled with smoke as a second attacker "randomly" shot at worshipers, who tried to hide, Ahmadi said. "Eventually the worshipers attacked him and took away his gun and took off his suicide belt. We tied him up using our 'shemaghs' and held him till police came," he said, referring to a traditional cloth head covering. Friday's incident was the latest assault on members of the Sunni-dominated kingdom's Shiite minority, after a string of shootings and bombings claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group. The interior ministry said two suicide bombers were prevented from entering the mosque by security personnel. "When security approached to intercept them, one of them responded by blowing himself up at the mosque entrance while an exchange of fire took place with another," it said. The ministry said the second suspect was injured, and arrested with help from citizens. "A suicide belt was found in his possession," it said, adding that automatic weapons were also recovered. Since deadly attacks claimed by IS last year against Shiite mosques in the kingdom's east, security has been increased and community guards now inspect visitors to houses of worship. Friday's attack happened in an area largely populated by employees of the state-owned Saudi Aramco oil company, a resident said. Most of Saudi Arabia's Shiites live in the kingdom's Eastern Province which includes Al-Ahsa, an oasis region where much of the kingdom's oil reserves are located. A video circulated on social media purportedly showed the aftermath of the attack, where several people lay still on a carpet, surrounded by broken glass. One man could be seen applying a tourniquet to the thigh of a victim whose white robe was soaked with blood. "People were so angry," and apprehended one of the alleged suspects themselves, the resident told AFP, asking for anonymity. "Police started shooting in the air so they could take him away."Another resident said Mahasen is a mostly Sunni neighborhood, and the mosque that was attacked "is a house that they turned into a mosque."IS, a Sunni extremist group, has claimed several deadly attacks against Saudi Shiites, whom the jihadists consider heretics, since late 2014. Friday's bombing was the first against Eastern Province Shiites since October, when a gunman fired on faithful commemorating Ashura in the Qatif area, killing five before police shot him dead. Ashura is one of the holiest occasions for the Shiite faith. In June, four Shiites died preventing a suicide bomber from entering the hall of Al-Anoud mosque in Dammam city. Days earlier, 21 people were killed in another Shiite mosque bombing in Eastern Province. Groups claiming affiliation with IS said they carried out those blasts and the Ashura shooting. During Ashura in 2014, gunmen killed seven Shiite worshipers, including children, in the eastern town of Al-Dalwa. The interior ministry said the suspects had links to IS. The group has also claimed deadly attacks on Saudi security forces.

Riyadh Welcomes Syrian Opposition's Decision to Go to Geneva
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry on Friday welcomed a decision by the Riyadh-based Syrian opposition to send a delegation to U.N.-brokered peace talks in Geneva. "The kingdom welcomes the decision taken by the High Negotiations Committee of the Syrian revolutionary and opposition forces in Riyadh to take part in the Geneva negotiations," the ministry said in a statement carried by the state-run Saudi Press Agency. A senior HNC delegate earlier told AFP that Syria's largest mainstream opposition group had decided after four days of debate to attend the Geneva talks and would send 30 to 35 delegates.

Report: Iran coerces Afghans to fight in Syria
AFP, New York Friday, 29 January 2016/Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has recruited thousands of Afghans, some by coercion, to fight in Syria’s war alongside forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, Human Rights Watch said Friday. “Iran has not just offered Afghan refugees and migrants incentives to fight in Syria, but several said they were threatened with deportation back to Afghanistan unless they did,” said Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director at the New York-based HRW. “Faced with this bleak choice, some of these Afghan men and boys fled Iran for Europe.”Shiite Iran is a staunch supporter of Assad and provides financial and military support to his regime. Tehran says its Fatemiyoun Brigade, comprised of Afghan recruits, are volunteers to defend sacred Shiite sites in Syria and Iraq against extremists like those of ISIS. The brigade, which is backed by the powerful Revolutionary Guards, is named after the daughter of the Prophet Mohammed whose mausoleum near Damascus is venerated by Shiites. But some reports say the Afghans have been offered residency and a monthly salary to fight for Iran. The Islamic republic denies having any boots on the ground and insists its commanders and generals act as “military advisers” in Syria and Iraq. However, funerals are regularly held across Iran for “volunteer” fighters from Iran, Afghanistan, and sometimes Pakistan. Iran hosts an estimated three million Afghans, many of whom have fled persecution and repeated bouts of armed conflict in their homeland, said HRW. Only 950,000 have refugee status in Iran and the rest have been deemed unqualified for asylum.At least two dozen Afghans interviewed by the watchdog said they or their relatives had been recruited or coerced by the Iranian authorities to fight in Syria. Six of them said Iranian forces had trained them or their relatives in military camps near Tehran and Shiraz in 2015. Two of the six had joined voluntarily, while the other four said they or their relatives had been coerced or forced to fight. Afghans were fighting in many areas of Syria, including Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Deir Ezzor, Hama, Latakia, and in areas near the Syrian border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, they said.

Iran President Pessimistic on Syrian Peace Process
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has voiced pessimism over the prospects for peace in Syria, ahead of talks set to open in Geneva on Friday. "It's our hope to see these negotiations succeed as quickly as possible," Rouhani told French media late Thursday following a two-day visit. "But I would be surprised if they succeed very soon, because in Syria there are groups fighting the central government but also fighting each other," said Rouhani, whose regime backs Syrian leader Bashar Assad. "There is interference in the internal affairs of Syria," he added in the interview with France 24, Le Monde and France Culture. "The solution should be political, but it will be difficult to arrive at a conclusion in the space of a few weeks, a few meetings. That would be too optimistic, because the Syrian question is too complicated." The United Nations said it still expected the Syria peace talks to begin later Friday, despite uncertainty over whether key opposition groups would attend. It said U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura would hold "proximity talks" with the participants, beginning with the government delegation headed by Syria's U.N. ambassador Bashar al-Jaafari, who has arrived in Geneva for talks, a Syrian source said. Despite Western pressure the main opposition umbrella group, the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), has yet to decide whether to come to Geneva and was holding a fourth day of talks in Saudi Arabia on Friday. On Thursday the Saudi-backed HNC, formed only last month, said it would not take part before an agreement is reached on aid to hundreds of thousands of people stuck in besieged towns.The planned talks are the biggest push to date to end a five-year-old conflict that has killed more than 260,000 people, driven millions from their homes and facilitated the meteoric rise of the Islamic State group.

France to Revive Plans for Israeli-Palestinian Peace Conference
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/France is looking to quickly revive plans for an international conference to "bring about the two-state solution" to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Friday. "In the coming weeks, France will take... steps in order to organize an international conference gathering each of the parties' principle partners -- principally Americans, Europeans and Arabs -- in order to preserve and to bring about the two-state solution," he said in remarks to diplomats. France has in recent years raised the idea of hosting an international conference to revive peace efforts which would bring in all the key players in a show of support for a final settlement of the decades-long conflict. But the idea has never taken concrete shape. "We must not allow the two-state solution to fall apart," he said, noting that there had been no halt to Israel's settlement activity on land the Palestinians want for a future state. Peace talks collapsed in April 2014 and since then, the situation has deteriorated, with the prospects of fresh dialogue appearing more remote than ever. A wave of Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks which began on October 1 has killed 25 Israelis, while over the same period, 159 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks although others died in clashes and demonstrations.
Recognizing Palestine?
Should efforts to breathe life into the moribund peace process fail, France would move to unilaterally recognize Palestine as a state, Fabius said. "And what will happen if this last-ditch attempt at reaching a negotiated solution hits a stumbling block?" he said. "In that case, we will have to live up to our responsibilities and recognize a Palestinian state." In November 2014, the French parliament backed a motion urging the government to recognize Palestine as a state as a way of achieving a "definitive resolution of the conflict" in a move which Paris has said could happen if the peace process remained in the doldrums. France has also pushed for a U.N. resolution that would guide negotiations leading to an independent Palestinian state and which could include a timeframe for talks. Until now, France's diplomatic efforts have been largely rebuffed by Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisting that peace would only come through direct negotiations between the parties and not through U.N. resolutions "imposed from the outside."Earlier on Friday, the Palestinians began waging a new campaign at the United Nations to revive peace prospects, with envoy Riyad Mansour highlighting the need for a "collective approach" to solve the conflict and saying a resolution condemning Israel's settlement expansion could be a first step.

Diplomats, Fighters Head Delegations to Syria Peace Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/The Syrian government and the country's largest mainstream opposition group have announced that they are sending delegations to Geneva, where peace talks are being hosted. The embattled Syrian regime's delegation is headed by its ambassador to the U.N., Bashar al-Jaafari, as well as a number of diplomats and lawyers. Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Moqdad will oversee the talks from Damascus.And opposition figures from a Saudi-backed alliance of groups, including the National Coalition and several armed factions, have announced their delegation. It will be headed by defected Syrian pilot Asaad al-Zoabi with Mohammed Alloush -- a senior official in the powerful Jaish al-Islam rebel group -- as chief negotiator.
GOVERNMENT
Bashar al-Jaafari
Born in Damascus in 1956, Jaafari began his career in Syria's foreign ministry in 1980. He served in multiple posts, including as Syria's representative in Geneva, until he was appointed as Syria's permanent representative to the United Nations in 2006.Jaafari served as the regime's chief negotiator in the last round of peace talks in Geneva in early 2014 and headed a government delegation that later met with some opposition groups in Moscow. In March 2014, U.S. authorities informed Jaafari that he would be restricted to a 40 kilometer (25 mile) travel radius around New York city.Jaafari has a doctorate in political science from the Sorbonne University in Paris. He is married to an Iranian woman and is fluent in Farsi, French, and English.
Faisal al-Moqdad
Syria's deputy foreign minister was born in 1954 in the south of the country. He holds a doctorate in English literature. Moqdad first entered the diplomatic fold in 1994 and a year later he joined the Syria team at the U.N. mission in New York. In 2003, he became Syria's ambassador to the world body. During the Vienna talks in October, Modqad, who rose the ranks to become deputy foreign minister in 2006, ruled out a transition period in Syria.
A source close to the government said that Moqdad will oversee the Geneva talks from Damascus, due to illness.
OPPOSITION
Asaad al-Zoabi
Asaad al-Zoabi was born in 1956 in southern Syria. He joined Syria's air force academy in 1974, then rose through the ranks to become a brigadier general. He also worked as a military consultant in Yemen for more than two years. Zoabi defected from the Syrian air force in August 2012 and fled to Jordan. From there, he began serving as a military adviser to rebel groups operating in the southern provinces of Daraa and Quneitra as well as Damascus.
He often appears on television programs as a military analyst.
Mohammed Alloush
Mohammed Alloush was born in 1970 in Douma, now a rebel bastion in the opposition-held Eastern Ghouta area east of Damascus. Alloush heads the political division of the powerful Jaish al-Islam (Army of Islam) rebel group. He is the cousin of slain Jaish al-Islam head Zahran Alloush, killed in an air strike claimed by Syria's government on December 25. Alloush studied Islamic law for one year in Damascus before moving to the Saudi city of Medina. In 2009, he received a degree in accounting in Beirut, according to a biography provided to AFP by Jaish al-Islam. Jaish al-Islam, which is opposed to both the government and the Islamic State group, is believed to receive wide backing from Saudi Arabia. Alloush is a former member of the Syrian National Council.

EU Border Agency Sees Fewer Syrians Arriving in Greece
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/The percentage of Syrian refugees arriving in Greece has fallen considerably in recent months, the EU border agency Frontex said Friday, attributing the change to fewer false nationality claims. Syrians made up 56 percent of all migrants registered in Greece in 2015, but the percentage fell to 51 percent in October, 43 percent in November and 39 percent in December, the Warsaw-based agency said in a statement. "With an increased presence of Frontex and additional Greek officers, we're seeing improved screening of migrants, which means that the number of people who were able to claim false nationality has been reduced," Frontex head Fabrice Leggeri said. "It is important to note, of course, that Frontex can only help to assess the nationalities of the arriving migrants... and our figures do not indicate who ends up applying for asylum."
In contrast, the share of Iraqi migrants went up from 11 percent in October and 12 percent in November to 25 percent in December, Frontex said. More than one million people reached Europe's shores in 2015 -- the majority of them refugees fleeing conflict and persecution in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq -- in the continent's worst migration crisis since World War II.

Netherlands to Join U.S.-led Airstrikes in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/Bowing to U.S. demands, the Dutch government announced Friday it will take part in U.S.-led air strikes in Syria against the Islamic State group, extending its current air support mission over Iraq. "In order to make the fight against ISIS in Iraq more efficient, it has been decided to carry out air strikes against ISIS in eastern Syria," the foreign and defense ministries said in a statement. Late last year in the wake of the November Paris attacks, the Dutch government received a request from allies the United States and France to broaden its campaign against the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group -- also known by the acronym ISIS. "The recent terrorist attacks in Paris, Istanbul and Jakarta clearly show that ISIS is a danger for our security and our way of life," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told journalists Friday. "We are going to deploy the F-16s above Syria, in particular to stop the pipeline leading from Syria into Iraq," he said, referring to the movements of IS fighters. The Netherlands is already participating in the coalition by carrying out air strikes in Iraq with four F-16 aircraft specializing in close air support of ground operations by Iraqi forces. But it had insisted in the past that it would not extend the air strikes over Syria without a U.N. mandate. But Rutte said Friday: "I do believe it is important as a coalition that we are active in the whole area." U.S. air strikes in Iraq began in August 2014 after IS captured a swathe of territory in Iraq and Syria in a lightning offensive. Washington and Arab allies broadened the strikes against IS in Syria a month later in September 2014, with the U.S. also leading moves to build an international coalition of some 60 nations against the jihadists. The F-16s "can really make an impact," Rutte insisted, saying the planes will be "more effectively deployed... particularly hitting training centers and other facilities" in Syria which are helping IS fighters in Iraq. The four Dutch F-16 jet fighters which have been pounding IS jihadists in Iraq since October 2014 would "remain active until July 1 over the enlarged zone," the government statement said.
Dutch troops would also increase their support for training Iraqi and peshmerga forces, Rutte said. "We are convinced that only a consistent approach can bring back stability in Iraq and Syria," said Foreign Minister Bert Koenders. But he insisted bombing was not the whole solution in such a "complex conflict" in Syria as President Bashar Assad battles to stay in power, fighting both IS and moderate opposition rebels backed by the West. After weeks of dallying, the junior partner in the ruling coalition, the Labor Party (PvdA), Tuesday finally agreed to back an extension of air strikes into Syria, paving the way for approval from parliament. High-stakes peace talks aimed at ending the brutal, five-year-old Syrian conflict which has left over 260,000 dead and created millions of refugees were due to start later Friday in Geneva. But there was uncertainty whether the key groups would attend, even though the Syrian government delegation had arrived in the Swiss city. France decided to launch air strikes against IS in the wake of the November 13 attacks which left 130 people dead, targeting the IS stronghold of Raqa. Britain also joined in late last year, while Russian planes have been flying sorties over Syria since September.

Anti-IS Alliance to Meet in Rome
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/The U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State jihadist group is to meet next week in Rome, the State Department said, confirming Secretary of State John Kerry will attend. "Coalition partners will review progress to date and discuss ways to further intensify commitments across all lines of effort to degrade and defeat this terrorist group," the department said. Kerry is due in Rome on Tuesday for the conference. The coalition of mainly Western and Arab powers is training and arming Iraqi government and Syrian rebel forces to fight the IS group, while carrying out its own air strikes.Officials are also considering a possible intervention against the jihadist group in Libya, perhaps led by Italy, the host of next week's conference. According to the State Department, the members of the coalition to be represented will include Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, the European Union, France, Germany, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Kuwait, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. The United Nations will send observers. After Tuesday's conference, Kerry will head on to London for a conference of donor countries looking to support aid and reconstruction in Libya, hosted by Britain, Germany, Norway, Kuwait and the United Nations.

At Least 10 Dead in NE Nigeria Suicide Bombing
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/ A child suicide bomber blew himself up in a market in northeast Nigeria Friday, killing at least 10 people, witnesses said, the latest bloodshed to hit the region, which is plagued by Islamist violence. They said a huge blast erupted at around midday (1100 GMT) in the crowded market in Gombi in Adamawa state, one of the worst-hit in the seven-year Boko Haram insurgency. The blast came after three suicide bombers killed at least 14 people in town of Chibok on Wednesday, where Islamist gunmen kidnapped more than 200 girls in April 2014. Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari last month declared that the Islamic State group affiliate had been "technically" defeated but there has been no let-up in suicide and bomb attacks. In the latest attack, trader Mustapha Jalo told AFP: "I heard a huge explosion coming from the grain section, which is at the edge of the market. "Many of us rushed to the scene and we found carnage. People were scattered everywhere. "I can say over 10 people died in the explosion. I can't give precise number of the injured but there are many."Gombi, which lies about 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the state capital, Yola, has been hit several times by Boko Haram attacks, with the most recent taking place in March 2015. Adamu Ahmad, a security guard at the market, gave a similar account to Jalo, saying the bomber was believed to be a boy aged around 12. "There was a suicide explosion at the grain section of the market around midday. The explosion killed at least 11 people and injured several others," he said. "The attack was believed to have been carried out by a boy of around 12. Today is market day in Gombi and the market attracts thousands of people from the district."Following the blast, the market closed down and all the traders returned home, he added. Boko Haram, which is looking to establish a hardline Islamic state in mainly Muslim northern Nigeria, has killed at least 17,000 people since its campaign began in 2009. At the same time, more than 2.6 million others have fled their homes. Some 2.0 million have been displaced within Nigeria, with the others fled into neighboring Cameroon, Chad and Niger.A counter-insurgency begun last year by the Nigerian military, supported by troops from surrounding nations, has succeeded in recapturing swathes of territory lost to the militants in 2014.But cross-border attacks have become more commonplace: on Thursday, four people were killed by suicide bombers in the town of Kerawa in Cameroon's extreme north region. On Monday, at least 37 died in four suicide attacks at a market in Bodo. In all, nearly 1,200 people have been killed in Cameroon since 2003, according to the government in Yaounde. "Soft" civilian targets such as markets, mosques and bus stations have frequently been hit. The group regularly uses young women and girls as human bombs, although experts suggest many of them are coerced into wearing suicide vests and the explosives are detonated remotely.

Syrian Opposition Decides to Join Peace Talks as Geneva Meetings Kick Off
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/Syria's largest mainstream opposition group will attend U.N.-brokered talks in Geneva, a senior delegate told AFP on Friday after four days of discussions in Riyadh. The delegate said the Saudi-backed High Negotiations Committee will send "about 30, 35 people" in all to Geneva, where talks got underway Friday. Asaad al-Zoabi, head of the HNC delegation, told Sky News Arabia that the opposition had received the guarantees it sought for an end to bombardment of civilians, and aid access to besieged areas. Those guarantees came from the United States and Saudi Arabia, Zoabi said, adding the delegation would arrive Saturday evening or Sunday morning. In a tweet, however, the HNC said it would not be taking part in actual peace negotiations in the Swiss city.  "HNC confirms it is coming to #Genevaiii to participate in discussions with the @UN, not for negotiations," the tweet said. HNC coordinator Riad Hijab was to issue a statement on the decision, which came after Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir met with them on Friday evening. Fuad Aliko, who is due to represent the HNC if it formally takes part in the talks, said earlier Friday that only a small delegation would travel to the Swiss capital. "A media delegation from the HNC has decided to go to Geneva," adding that it would be made up of three HNC members who also serve as the group's spokesmen. But the other delegate said all of the Committee would travel to Switzerland. Despite Western pressures for it to attend, the HNC had said it would not take part in Geneva without an agreement on relief reaching hundreds of thousands of people stuck in besieged towns. It also wanted assurances from the international community that it will move to end regime attacks on civilians. The HNC asked for "clarifications" after the U.N. issued invitations to other opposition figures. The Committee insists that it is the sole permitted representative of Syria's opposition, despite objections from others. The HNC was formed in December when the main Syrian political opposition and armed factions came together in Riyadh for an unprecedented bid at unity, after months of Saudi efforts. The U.N. envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura on Friday met representatives of President Bashar Assad's regime in Geneva at the start of a scheduled six months of peace talks, an AFP reporter said. Neither de Mistura nor Syria's U.N. ambassador Bashar al-Jaafari commented to reporters as they began discussions inside Geneva's Palais des Nations, the European U.N. headquarters. The talks, backed by all the external powers embroiled in the war, are the biggest push yet to end a conflict that has killed more than 260,000 people and facilitated the meteoric rise of the extremist Islamic State (IS) group. The highly complex conflict, which has been raging for almost five years, has also destabilized the already restive Middle East and drawn in not only regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey but also the United States and Russia. It has also forced millions of Syrians from their homes, many of them into neighboring states and further afield, causing a major political headache for the European Union which received more than one million migrants in 2015.De Mistura issued an emotional video message on Thursday to Syrians both inside and outside the country saying that after previous failures, this new effort "cannot fail."
'Historic opportunity'
The Geneva negotiations, if they happen properly, would not be face-to-face between the regime and its opponents. Instead they are "proximity talks" where go-betweens shuttle between the different participants. They are part of an ambitious plan launched in Vienna in November by a raft of key actors including Russia, the United States, Gulf states, Iran and Turkey that foresees elections within 18 months. The U.S. State Department said Thursday that the opposition's demands for participation in the talks were "legitimate" but called on it to take part in what it called "an historic opportunity.""And we still believe they should do so without preconditions," spokesman Mark Toner said. "We believe these demands, while legitimate, shouldn't keep the talks from moving forward."De Mistura has reportedly issued individual invitations to a list of figures opposed to the regime but who are thought to have closer ties to Moscow and have limited influence on the ground. Randa Kassis, a member of that list, told AFP in Geneva on Friday that despite the uncertainty on who would attend, "something has to start. We have to think of the Syrian people." The HNC and its Saudi and Turkish backers had also objected to the participation of Syrian Kurdish groups that have made key advances against IS in northern Syria in recent months. Russia, however, which has helped the regime of President Assad make inroads against rebels with air strikes since September, says Kurdish involvement is essential.
'Inflexible' Assad
France-based Middle East analyst Agnes Levallois said the opposition was growing increasingly frustrated that the question of Assad's fate, a key stumbling block in previous talks, was being put off. "Assad is feeling stronger and stronger so is being inflexible," she said. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, whose Shiite country also backs Assad and is at daggers drawn with Sunni regional rival Saudi Arabia, said during a visit to Paris on Thursday that the process would take time. "We hope that these talks will succeed as soon as possible. But I would be surprised if they succeed very quickly because in Syria there are groups who are at war with the central government and also amongst themselves," French media quoted him as saying. "There is interference in the internal affairs of Syria," he added.

Hamas Ready for Fresh Conflict with Israel, Says Gaza Chief
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/Hamas is ready for a new confrontation with Israel thanks in part to the reconstruction of tunnels to fight the Jewish state, the Islamist Palestinian movement's Gaza chief said on Friday. Ismail Haniya said the Ezzedine Al-Qassam Brigades -- Hamas's military wing -- were preparing "for any future clashes with the Zionist (Israeli) enemy". "East of Gaza City, underground heroes build tunnels" along the border with Israel, while west of the city they are "testing rockets every day," said Haniya. He was speaking to thousands of mourners gathered at the Great Omari Mosque in Gaza City for the funeral of seven Al-Qassam fighters killed this week in a tunnel collapse. Al-Qassam Brigades said the seven had been preparing "for fighting with the enemy". Wrapped in green Hamas flags, the seven bodies were carried to the mosque while crowds chanted slogans calling for violence against Israel. In a rare move, several Hamas chiefs went to the cemetery located near the border with Israel to place flowers by the graves of the seven fighters. Haniya described the tunnels as a "strategic weapons" against Israel, and said Hamas fighters are also training and acquiring "all the means to fight and resist". Israel has been accusing Hamas of rebuilding tunnels destroyed during the 2014 Gaza war with the aim of launching fresh attacks against it. The 50-day war in July-August 2014 killed 2,200 Palestinians, 73 people on the Israeli side, and destroyed or damaged thousands of homes in the besieged Gaza Strip. The tunnels have been used in the past to store weapons or stage attacks. In June 2006, a group of Hamas fighters and other militants entered Israel through a cross-border tunnel, seized Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and took him back to Gaza. He was then held for five years and eventually returned in a prisoner exchange which saw over 1,000 Palestinians released. Gaza has remained largely calm since a wave of Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks began in October in the West Bank, Jerusalem and across Israel, though a number of people have been killed by Israeli forces during violent protests along the Gaza border.

Report: U.S., UK Hacked into Israeli Air Surveillance
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 29/16/U.S. and British intelligence agencies for years hacked into Israeli drones carrying out surveillance to prepare for a potential strike on Iran, Israeli daily Yediot Aharonot reported on Friday. Citing documents leaked by rogue U.S. intelligence contractor Edward Snowden, Yediot said that the operation, codenamed "Anarchist", began in 1998 at a British facility in the Troodos mountains of Cyprus and a U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) site at Menwith Hill, in northern England. "From the documents it emerges that Israel operates a large fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles," the paper wrote. "They collect intelligence in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and throughout the Middle East and were even used according to the editors (of the Snowden files) for gathering intelligence to plan the bombing of Iran." Snowden, who had worked for the NSA, leaked a hoard of documents in 2013 revealing a worldwide U.S. surveillance program. The Yediot report, which the paper says was submitted to the Israeli military censor before publication, does not give details of the Jewish state's surveillance of Iran but it shows what are purportedly the first published images of armed Israeli drones. It also tells of Anarchist's penetration of F16 fighter pilots' heads-up display, in one case showing the aircraft tracking a target on the ground.
"It's as if they sat with them in the cockpit," the paper wrote. "It's a look into the secret Israeli combat world," it said. "Potential targets, aims, priorities and capabilities, from Israel's view of its enemies. The United States and Britain profited from Israel's superb intelligence abilities and saw everything that Israel saw." Israel's foreign ministry declined to comment but Yuval Steinitz, minister of energy and a former intelligence minister, said he was disappointed. "We are not surprised. We know that the Americans spy on everyone including us, their friends," he told Israeli army radio. "It's disappointing nonetheless because of the fact that for decades we haven't spied or gathered intelligence or broken codes in the United States."
After the 1985 arrest in Washington of U.S. Navy intelligence analyst Jonathan Pollard, for passing U.S. secrets to Israel, the Jewish state pledged never to spy on its ally again.
Yediot quoted an unnamed senior Israeli intelligence official describing the latest report as "an earthquake.""Apparently none of our encoded communications devices are safe from them," he said.

Tunisian president: We stand by Saudi and GCC to repel any threat
By Munthir Bildiyafi AlArabiya.net Friday, 29 January 2016/President Beji Caid Essebsi reaffirmed Tunisia’s support for Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy to repel any threat to its stability. During an interview with Al-Arabiya.net, the Tunisian leader said his country would stand by its Gulf Arab neighbors and would work to further promote bilateral relations. “Tunisia will certainly favor its Arab identity in the ongoing conflict within the Arab Gulf,” said Essebsi adding “the kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) is targeted and we have no option but to stand by it and support it.” Essebsi embarked on a regional tour over the past two months that included Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain. He stressed that “Gulf States expressed enthusiasm towards supporting Tunisia” and that “the coming days will see a large and important Gulf meeting devoted to plan this support.” He added that he invited Gulf nationals to invest in Tunisia which would eventually help create job opportunities for Tunisians and create large benefits to Gulf investors, a cooperation that will benefit both sides. Commenting on the latest developments in Tunisia five years after the revolution, and in light of recent protests in many Tunisian provinces, the Tunisian president said: “We recognize and acknowledge that the situation in Tunisia is very difficult but we have no choice but to overcome it through coming up with solutions appropriate to the country’s situation as well as that of the surrounding area characterized by an economic crisis in Europe - our first economic partner - and by the decline of oil prices in the Gulf States.”Essebsi also stressed that the current Tunisian government inherited a difficult task but was constantly holding on to maintain the public order.

France to recognise Palestinian state if deadlock with Israel not broken
Reuters, Paris Friday, 29 January 2016/France will recognise a Palestinian state if its efforts in coming weeks to try to break the deadlock between Israelis and Palestinians fail, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on Friday. "France will engage in the coming weeks in the preparation of an international conference bringing together the parties and their main partners, American, European, Arab, notably to preserve and make happen the solution of two states," he said. Fabius said that as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, France had a responsibility to try to keep up efforts to find a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.

True or false?
Michael Young/Now Lebanon/January 29/16
A news item appeared this week that has created great confusion. In an article on the front page of Al-Hayat, Ibrahim Hamidi, who covers Syria for the newspaper, wrote that unnamed Syrian opposition figures had revealed a major shift in the Obama administration’s attitude toward resolving the war in their country. According to Hamidi, the opposition sources, who had met with the American secretary of state, John Kerry, in Riyadh, told of how they had been pushed to swallow a “poisoned cup.” They were asked to consent to concessions in the run-up to negotiations for a solution in Syria—now scheduled for January 29 in Geneva. Kerry allegedly said that the opposition had to accept the establishment of a “unity government” in Syria, not a transitional authority as outlined at the Geneva Conference of 2012. President Bashar al-Assad could, after a transitional phase, stand for presidential elections, though Geneva had outlined the transition as a mechanism to facilitate Assad’s removal from office. Kerry is also said to have told the opposition that it would have to integrate into its delegation several representatives of the “internal opposition” in Syria, viewed as close to the regime, as well as the head of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), Saleh Muslim.
Hamidi’s points were echoed in a series of tweets by Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi analyst with close ties to the Saudi regime who also is a regular contributor to Al-Hayat. All this signaled an apparently radical turnaround in Washington’s position, one supposedly accompanied by threats that unless the Syrian opposition accepted the conditions, they would no longer receive outside assistance. Munzir Makhus, a member of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, appeared to confirm part of the story on the record, saying that Kerry had warned the opposition against boycotting the Geneva meeting or they would lose their allies. A boycott still seems possible because there remains strong disagreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia over the composition of the opposition delegation.
But is it really true that the Americans had adopted a new attitude toward Syria? In a Washington Post article, Kerry was quoted as denying he had ever made the statements the Syrians had accused him of making. “It’s just not what was said,” he told reporters in Laos. “The position of the United States is, and hasn’t changed, that we are still supporting the opposition politically, financially and militarily,” Kerry said.That there should have been such a disconnect between what Kerry purportedly said, and what the Syrians saidthey heard was very odd. Either the opposition was lying, or Kerry was. However, many people will, rightly or wrongly, assume the latter, if only because the United States has been so ambiguous with regard to the Russian intervention in Syria and to Bashar al-Assad himself. After initially criticizing the Russians, the Obama administration has, since then, been coordinating with them, while looking the other way as their forces bomb the so-called moderate opposition at will. Both have also developed ties with the PYD and with the main Kurdish fighting force in Syria, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which has been a valuable ally against ISIS.
And in the negotiations over a resolution in Syria, the Americans have themselves made concessions to the Russians. For instance in December, Kerry made it clear that Assad’s departure was no longer a precondition for a Syrian peace process. Just before that the Americans had reportedly urged the Syrian opposition, who were preparing to meet in Saudi Arabia, to use “creative language” when discussing Assad’s fate. The American-Russian rapprochement is no secret. American columnist David Ignatius, who often reflects the administration’s mood, recently wrote: “Russia is emerging as an essential diplomatic and security partner for the U.S. in Syria, despite the Obama administration’s opposition to Moscow’s support for President Bashar Assad.” For Ignatius, “an administration that has had trouble living with President Vladimir Putin, especially after his actions in Ukraine, finds that it can’t live without him in Syria.”
All this does not indicate that Kerry’s denial of an American reversal on Syria is untrue. However, it explains the mistrust of Washington not only among the ranks of the Syrian opposition, but also in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, major backers of Assad’s foes. To them the Obama administration is using doublespeak when it comes to Syria, its main purpose being to end the conflict there on any terms whatsoever so as to focus its attention on defeating ISIS.
It’s difficult to interpret American actions otherwise. At no point during the conflict in Syria has President Barack Obama shown particular interest in the Syrian dimension of the war. The United States has been unmoved by the terrible human casualty toll, uninterested in bringing Assad and his entourage to justice, and thoroughly indifferent to the myriad violations of human rights, international justice and the laws of war in Syria. For a president who claimed in the 2015 National Security Strategy that he sought to use American leadership to advance “universal values, and a rules-based international order,” Obama has struck out on all counts. American leadership has been invisible, while universal values and a rules-based international order have never seemed so elusive. That no one believes Obama any more may explain why the Syrian opposition was so skeptical about Kerry; or why Kerry perhaps felt he had to dissemble about his true aims in Syria.
**-Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Will Iranians be able to increase voter turnout in the next election?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 29/16
Despite the mass disqualifications of Reformist candidates by the conservative Guardian Council for the February parliamentary elections, leaders of the Iran Reformist bloc are encouraging members to turn out and vote. Mohammad Reza Aref, head of the Reformist Policymaking Council, wrote a letter to Reformist young people Jan. 27 encouraging “maximum participation” in the elections. As reported earlier, only 30 of the 3,000 Reformists who registered to run were approved. A record 12,000 candidates applied to be registered; the Guardian Council said it did not have time to review all the applications.
Among the 2013 presidential candidates, Aref was the sole Reformist. At the urging of Reformist former President Mohammad Khatami, Aref pulled out of those elections in favor of Hassan Rouhani, who was elected president. Now Aref is running in the parliamentary elections and is perhaps the most well-known active Reformist politician. A Jan. 28 article in the Reformist Shargh Daily said that despite the discouraging news of disqualifications, Reformists on the whole seemed determined to participate in the elections. Journalist Mehdi Ghadimi wrote in the article that Aref’s letter to the Reformist youth shows that there is unhappiness in their ranks regarding the disqualifications, and the current negotiations between the Rouhani administration and the Guardian Council on the topic do not seem promising. Regardless, Ghadimi believes that, based on statements by Aref and other prominent figures, “Reformists will participate under any condition.”Gholam-Hossein Karbaschi, former Tehran mayor and head of the Executives of Construction Party, said in response to the disqualifications, “You must not sulk and leave the elections.” He added, “The only peaceful tool to resolve differences within the country is elections.” Karbaschi warned that if elections are eliminated as a means of resolving disputes, then “undemocratic” methods will be adopted.
Masoud Pezekshian, a Reformist parliament member from Tabriz who, according to Shargh, was the only Reformist candidate from Tabriz to receive a qualification, also warned against boycotting the elections, saying, “Having a presence in the elections is a principle and we must not ignore the ballot box.” Pezekshian said Reformists need to focus on those who have been qualified. A statement by the National Trust Party also addressed voters “disillusioned over the disqualifications” and said they must “prevent a decrease in enthusiasm for the elections and keep alive their hope.” Shargh said that Rasoul Montajeb-Nia, deputy head of the National Trust Party, summed up the overall Reformist position by saying, “In these elections we could have not participated over fear of disqualifications, but we stood for our words. We have the advantage of the experience of 2012 [parliamentary elections] and we are cohesive. There were many efforts [to keep us from reaching] the elections, but the planning of the elders resulted in this cohesiveness, and Reformists will try to enter this with one list.”When Reformists mostly boycotted the 2012 parliamentary election over a 2009 post-election crackdown, the result was a mostly conservative parliament. According to Ghadimi, Montajeb-Nia’s statement was the “stamp of approval of the ‘participating under any conditions’ strategy as the overall strategy of the Reformists in the upcoming elections.”

Iranians launch boycott of Saudi businesses
Masoud Lavasani/Al-Monitor/January 29/16
In Iran, a campaign to boycott Saudi products was initiated more than three weeks ago. The campaign, which was launched following a similar initiative in neighboring Iraq, was quickly joined by prominent Iranian actors such as Rambod Javan.
Javan posted the message “Never threaten an Iranian” on the messaging app Telegram. The phrase was famously uttered by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini at a tense moment during the nuclear negotiations in Austria last summer.
The boycott campaign follows Saudi Arabia’s Jan. 3 decision to cut diplomatic and commercial ties with Iran. The rupture was triggered by the attacks on Saudi diplomatic facilities in Iran after Riyadh executed Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr Jan. 2. Mehrdad Mahdavi, a student at Tehran University and one of the organizers of the boycott, told Al-Monitor, “This is a student movement that has nothing to do with the government. We are different from the extremists who attacked the Saudi Embassy. Such actions are not civil. We are in favor of civil behavior and peaceful protests.”
Expanding on how the campaign operates, Mahdavi said, “We used the experience of another campaign launched against the purchase of [domestically produced, substandard] vehicles, which was also a civic movement. We distributed our message through large groups on Telegram. Some of these Telegram groups have more than 200,000 followers and we estimate that we have reached an audience of close to 2 million people through our advertising. Telegram has a huge influence in Iran.”
Reports show that trade between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been very limited, with most of it being Iranian exports. According to Ebrahim Jamili, former secretary-general of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines’ Iran-Saudi Council, bilateral trade has been declining over the past decade. Indeed, it stood at a mere $215.1 million in the nine months that ended Dec. 21. Iran’s exports to Saudi Arabia include goods such as marble stones, ceramics, cement, engine parts, faucets, tar, carpets and handicrafts. Meanwhile, its imports from Saudi Arabia have included items such as fabric, corn oil, agricultural machinery, aluminum soft drink cans and motor vehicles. The semi-official Mehr News Agency recently reported on the boycott campaign, pointing out prominent Saudi firms that operate in Iran. These include food producer Savola Group, which has teamed up with Iran’s Behshahr Industrial Development Corp.; Rani soft drink maker Aujan, an affiliate of Coca-Cola Co.; and the fast-food chain Al-Baik.
Savola has said it will not leave Iran, despite the cut in relations with Saudi Arabia, while its main shareholder, Saudi billionaire Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, has stated that he will no longer invest in Iran. The Iranian market accounts for 13% of Savola’s total revenues. The Saudi food producer owns 90% of Savola Behshahr Co., which in turn holds a 40% share of Iran’s edible oil market. Following the cut in Iranian-Saudi relations, Reuters reported a drop of 11.5% in Savola’s shares. So far, the impact of the boycott is unclear. Kian, a graphic artist who is also a member of the campaign, told Al-Monitor, “These [Saudi] companies can never say that, for instance, 'Our sales have dropped and we are paying for the loss.' This campaign has also only been going on for three weeks, and it is too soon to reach a conclusion [about its success] or say anything. Fortunately, given the media coverage, the public has welcomed it.”
Meanwhile, Behshahr’s shares have actually risen on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Sadegh Afzali, a licensed stock broker in the Iranian capital, told Al-Monitor, “During these past few weeks, we haven’t witnessed any significant impact on Behshahr’s shares. If such a boycott campaign is to have an impact, we have to be patient and monitor its effects in the next month or two.”
Expanding on the value of Saudi investments in Iran, Afzali said, “Companies like Rani or Savola will be quickly replaced by rival Iranian producers. In the past, whenever a rumor about a company began circulating, we saw the value of its shares drop considerably. As for Rani, it has many domestic rivals, and considering the cut in [commercial] ties [with Saudi Arabia], and these popular boycott campaigns — if they remain serious — will quickly be replaced and forgotten by consumers.” Meanwhile, an Al-Baik employee who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity said one of the fast-food company's restaurants in Tehran's Sadeghiyeh district was shut down in the past two weeks due to low sales. “Previously, Al-Baik had 15 restaurants in Iran, and now the number of active branches has dropped to 10."
There are three remaining restaurants in Tehran. The employee said sales at the location where he works "are good for now and we have not experienced a drop," though he declined to divulge sales figures. "The branches that faced a decrease in sales were quickly shut down.”
When contacted by Al-Monitor, an Al-Baik restaurant in the Arikeh Iranian shopping mall in west Tehran refused to discuss the anti-Saudi boycott campaign on the record. However, one of the employees told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, ”Our sales have not dropped in the past weeks. Also, we have heard no news about the departure of these fast-food restaurants from Iran and will continue our operations.”The cut in Iranian-Saudi relations and the boycott campaign also appear to have affected travel. According to Iranian media, flights have been halted between Dhahran, in Saudi Arabia’s Shiite-majority Eastern Province, and the holy Iranian city of Mashhad, which attracts Shiites from around the world. The anti-Saudi campaign also is seeking to discourage travel to countries they claim support the Islamic State during the Persian New Year holiday, which begins March 20. Kian, the boycott campaign member, told Al-Monitor, ”We think that in a situation where Iran is grappling with economic problems, instead of paying the heavy costs of going to the hajj pilgrimage that money can be spent on helping those in need.”

Why Turkey and Iran are two odd allies
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/January 29/16
The Turkish-Iranian relationship seems to have become more complicated in the recent months. In addition, the lifting of sanctions on Iran appears to mark a new era between Istanbul and Tehran.On the surface, tensions and rhetorical disputes between Ankara and Tehran are escalating. Lately, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Iran of attempting to dominate the Middle East. Iranian lawmakers also put pressure on Hassan Rowhani to stand more forcefully against Turkey’s actions. Will this heightened rhetoric lead to a major dispute or military stand-off between the Islamic Republic and Turkey?
Ankara and Tehran need each other
Geopolitically speaking, Iranian and Turkish leaders have opposing views on most critical issues in the region. Both countries strongly stand against each other regarding the Syrian civil war; Turkey is opposing Bashar al-Assad, hosting oppositional groups while Iran is fully backing Assad’s Alawite-state militarily and financially. In Yemen, Turkey has also opposed Iran’s military support for Houthi militias. The recent heated rhetoric between Turkey and Iran will not rise into a major dispute. They have managed to settle their profound geopolitical differences mainly due to the convergence of economic interests.
The second issue is linked to the Kurds. This is critical since Turkey and Iran have the largest and second-largest Kurdish population in the region. Although they both oppose their Kurdish populations desire to declare independence, Ankara and Tehran are competing in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). Iran suppresses its own Kurdish population, but it has utilized the Kurds in other countries as a political leverage against those nations. The KRI already has formidable economic ties with the Islamic Republic. In addition, Iran has managed to strengthen its military and strategic relationships with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). As the KRG President Massoud Barzani has pointed out “Iran was the first country to provide us with weapons and ammunition”. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), located mainly in the south and east of Iraqi Kurdistan, also enjoys Iran’s military support.
Turkey views Iran’s support for the PUK as a national security threat. Turkey is also concerned that Iranian leaders are increasing their influence in Iraq through various alliances in order to limit other regional power’s influence. By increasing its influence in the KRG, Iran can potentially force Turkey to reshape its opposing policies towards the Islamic Republic, Syria and Iraq. Ideologically speaking, they differ as Turkey is a secular state with secular constitution, and Iran has a theocratic political establishment. Turkey has always been concerned about Iran’s attempts to export its Shiite and revolutionary ideals, alter the regional order and tip the regional balance of power in its Revolutionary Guards’ favor.
Economic convergence of interests
However, none of the aforementioned critical disagreements and geopolitical rivalries are going to lead to a major military confrontation or break up the ties between Tehran and Ankara. The major reason is that Turkey is in desperate need of gas and oil, and Iran is in need of Turkey’s cash: an economic convergence of interests. Economically speaking, the major regional beneficiary of the nuclear deal is Turkey. Turkey is a key customer of Iranian oil and gas -Iran is the second largest gas exporter to Turkey. Turkey hopes that the lifting of sanctions will bring Western and Turkish companies to invest in Iran’s gas infrastructure in order to speed up production. One way that Turkey could decrease it energy dependence on Iran is if Qatar provides Ankara with the needed gas supplies. Turkey is searching to place itself as the major energy hub between European countries and Iran for gas and oil exports. This will minimize the cost of the expensive gas contracts that Turkey is currently paying to Iran. Before the Arab spring, Turkey voted against imposing new sanctions on Iran through United Nations Security Council resolution. By using different methods of payments such as gold, it also assisted Iran to bypass economic sanctions.
Moreover, both countries have significant trade partnership in other areas as well. Trade between Ankara and Tehran has risen to approximately 14 billion in 2014. And as Riza Eser, chairman of the Turkey-Iran Business Council, pointed out Ankara is attempting to increase trade with Tehran up to $30 billion in two years. Turkey alongside China and United Arab Emirates are the top three trade partners of Iran. Ankara attempts to conduct a balancing act between Iranian hardliners and moderates, and often it tones down its rhetoric, because it is cognizant of the fact that Iranian hardliners- such as the Revolutionary Guard Corps- do not want to completely give their monopoly over the energy sector to Western and Turkish companies, and they view Turkey with suspicion. The recent heated rhetoric between Turkey and Iran will not rise into a major dispute. Since the 1639 Treaty of Qhasr-e Shirin, Iran and Turkey has maintained their relations. They have managed to settle their profound geopolitical differences mainly due to the convergence of economic interests. More fundamentally, the lifting of sanctions on Iran will bring Istanbul and Tehran closer together due their shared economic interests.

Ceasefire first, Geneva talks second
Mohamed Chebarro/Al Arabiya/January 29/16
It would not be an exaggeration to describe the Geneva III meeting as dead before it even starts. The words of the special U.N. envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura at his press conference in the Swiss city this week showed a U.N. official in trouble. His mandate - and specially the details of Resolution 2254, which set a roadmap for a peace process - are not going to be implemented. So all that he could hope for is a gathering of many Syrians, representative of the Syrian people or not, discussing abstract concepts about the future constitution of the war-torn country, the transitional government and its mandate and powers. The delegates could also discuss the planned future ceasefire and possibly how to contain the ever-escalating humanitarian crisis which has displaced more than 12 million Syrians, and not to forget how best to facilitate the war on ISIS. This pessimism emanates from a simple fact known in every conflict and throughout history: the most urgent and most crucial step to kick-start a peace process is when all the parties (regardless of whether they are victors or vanquished) show resolve and commitment to settle their differences.
Warring sides
The warring parties can then agree to stop the killing and agree to a ceasefire that in itself will be the cornerstone for the start of negotiations and a search for a settlement. Yes, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) forces might not be part of such a ceasefire, but at least a cessation of violence gives most parties a serious indication that it is time to sharpen their negotiating skills. When taking a closer look at Mr. de Mistura’s sketch of what could be described as negotiations, one is shocked to see that the talks will be proximate, i.e. indirect. Those talks will lack two clear groups - one representing the Assad regime, and another the opposition battling his government. Since the start of the peaceful uprising against Assad’s dynastic four-decade rule, Damascus manufactured its so-called loyal peaceful opposition, and presented them as loosely-knit figures and parties that act as smokescreen apologists for the regime and its crimes. Last but not least, Russia and by default the U.S. are pushing for a Syria Kurdish party to have a place in Geneva. The group was once seen as being pro-Assad and it has always called for an autonomous self-styled Syrian Kurdish region in northern Syria.
Lack of resolve
Against such a landscape, even the most optimistic see in the six-month timeframe suggested for the talks a sign of continued lack of international resolve to end one of the most barbaric conflicts the world has witnessed since the Second World War. Assad’s regime is still mercilessly bombing towns and villages known to be the hotbed of Syrians opposed to his rule, killing and maiming his own people. His forces, with help from foreign Iraqi, Iranian, Afghani and Lebanese militias, are advancing on a few strategic fronts north and south of the country. The Russian air force continues its onslaught, targeting groups that were once seen as moderate opposition movements.The U.S. and 60-plus countries fighting ISIS are having little or no success in limiting the spread of the terror group’s controlling of regions in Syria and Iraq and lately Libya. Syrian refugees meanwhile are continuing a never-ending exodus west towards Europe, shackling the union with discord and unparalleled demographic questions unseen since its inception.
Time-wasting story
In short, the Geneva talks are a time-wasting déjà vu story in the Middle East, and a reflection of international discord. From April 2012 until Dec. 2015, eight U.N. resolutions dealt with the Syrian crisis. Only one touched the core issue when Resolution 2254 called for an immediate ceasefire. Similarly, Geneva I, like Geneva II and III called vaguely for an immediate cease fire and the end of barrel bombing and city and town sieges, but to no avail. Envoy after envoy went to Syria and failed. In Geneva or in Vienna, the same process resulting in the same failure awaits Mr de Mistura. In an age where President Obama decided to cede U.S. supremacy and act as a head of state lacking resolve, President Putin intervened to fill that void in a Tsarist assertive imperialist fashion of days gone by. The Russian leader’s sole objective has been to bruise Western imperialist powers such as the US, Europe and their allies beyond. In such an environment, regional players are emboldened to embark on power trips beyond their means. That is why the Syrian conflict calls on the world to convene a historic meeting that could address regional and international differences. The meeting must first enforce a ceasefire, prior to launching a clear agenda for the settlement and rebuilding of Syria.

Who benefits from restrictions on Lebanese banks?
Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/January 29/16
Apart from the relatively stable security situation and unstable political situation, it is important to look at Lebanon’s deteriorating economy. The most profitable and productive sector is banking, which is suffering from strict rules that are not imposed in other Arab and foreign countries. These laws aim to limit bank secrecy. The United States has imposed the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) on Lebanese banks to curb tax evasion by U.S. citizens, but this is not our responsibility, and should be an affair between a country and its citizens. What if we requested that similar measures be taken to pursue Lebanese people outside Lebanon? Would the U.S. Treasury give us access to all case files and accounts? International measures have prevented Syrian citizens who fled the war in their country from depositing their funds in Lebanese banks, so they have resorted to banks in Cairo, Dubai and elsewhere.
These restrictions now include all banks and all Lebanese people. This is a generalized injustice, and contradicts claims about supporting and protecting Lebanon. These funds should have been deposited in Lebanese banks, especially since Lebanon is affected most by the Syrian war, which has been ongoing for almost five years. Lebanon hosts 1.5 million Syrian refugees, to whom the international community has failed to fulfil its duties.
Terrorism
Banks are suffering the burden of fighting terrorism. Washington is banning banks from opening accounts to certain people, or forcing them to close accounts linked to MPs and ministers who are affiliated with Hezbollah in particular, such as relatives of these officials. It has accused a group of Lebanese contractors and traders who reside outside Lebanon of funding the Shiite party - they were thus prevented from transferring money to the country. Sometimes such measures are taken without evidence. All Lebanese citizens are against terrorism and money-laundering, but these restrictions now include all banks and all Lebanese people. This is a generalized injustice, and contradicts claims about supporting and protecting Lebanon. A strong economy is essential for citizens to make a livelihood and shun extremism or organized crime. Terrorism cannot be fought by suffocating the economy. A banking delegation is currently in Washington to affirm Lebanon’s commitment to international and U.S. measures, and thus avoid sanctions against the sector. Washington and its regional allies must realize that Lebanon is part of the international system, and plays a role in this context. Protecting Lebanon is a moral duty and a necessity so the country - as Washington and Arab states fear - does not turn into an Iranian proxy or a base for terrorism.

Why Turkey and Iran are two odd allies
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/January 29/16
The Turkish-Iranian relationship seems to have become more complicated in the recent months. In addition, the lifting of sanctions on Iran appears to mark a new era between Istanbul and Tehran. On the surface, tensions and rhetorical disputes between Ankara and Tehran are escalating. Lately, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Iran of attempting to dominate the Middle East. Iranian lawmakers also put pressure on Hassan Rowhani to stand more forcefully against Turkey’s actions. Will this heightened rhetoric lead to a major dispute or military stand-off between the Islamic Republic and Turkey?
Ankara and Tehran need each other
Geopolitically speaking, Iranian and Turkish leaders have opposing views on most critical issues in the region. Both countries strongly stand against each other regarding the Syrian civil war; Turkey is opposing Bashar al-Assad, hosting oppositional groups while Iran is fully backing Assad’s Alawite-state militarily and financially. In Yemen, Turkey has also opposed Iran’s military support for Houthi militias. The recent heated rhetoric between Turkey and Iran will not rise into a major dispute. They have managed to settle their profound geopolitical differences mainly due to the convergence of economic interests.
The second issue is linked to the Kurds. This is critical since Turkey and Iran have the largest and second-largest Kurdish population in the region. Although they both oppose their Kurdish populations desire to declare independence, Ankara and Tehran are competing in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). Iran suppresses its own Kurdish population, but it has utilized the Kurds in other countries as a political leverage against those nations.
The KRI already has formidable economic ties with the Islamic Republic. In addition, Iran has managed to strengthen its military and strategic relationships with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). As the KRG President Massoud Barzani has pointed out “Iran was the first country to provide us with weapons and ammunition”. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), located mainly in the south and east of Iraqi Kurdistan, also enjoys Iran’s military support. Turkey views Iran’s support for the PUK as a national security threat. Turkey is also concerned that Iranian leaders are increasing their influence in Iraq through various alliances in order to limit other regional power’s influence. By increasing its influence in the KRG, Iran can potentially force Turkey to reshape its opposing policies towards the Islamic Republic, Syria and Iraq. Ideologically speaking, they differ as Turkey is a secular state with secular constitution, and Iran has a theocratic political establishment. Turkey has always been concerned about Iran’s attempts to export its Shiite and revolutionary ideals, alter the regional order and tip the regional balance of power in its Revolutionary Guards’ favor.
Economic convergence of interests
However, none of the aforementioned critical disagreements and geopolitical rivalries are going to lead to a major military confrontation or break up the ties between Tehran and Ankara. The major reason is that Turkey is in desperate need of gas and oil, and Iran is in need of Turkey’s cash: an economic convergence of interests.Economically speaking, the major regional beneficiary of the nuclear deal is Turkey. Turkey is a key customer of Iranian oil and gas -Iran is the second largest gas exporter to Turkey. Turkey hopes that the lifting of sanctions will bring Western and Turkish companies to invest in Iran’s gas infrastructure in order to speed up production. One way that Turkey could decrease it energy dependence on Iran is if Qatar provides Ankara with the needed gas supplies. Turkey is searching to place itself as the major energy hub between European countries and Iran for gas and oil exports. This will minimize the cost of the expensive gas contracts that Turkey is currently paying to Iran. Before the Arab spring, Turkey voted against imposing new sanctions on Iran through United Nations Security Council resolution. By using different methods of payments such as gold, it also assisted Iran to bypass economic sanctions.
Moreover, both countries have significant trade partnership in other areas as well. Trade between Ankara and Tehran has risen to approximately 14 billion in 2014. And as Riza Eser, chairman of the Turkey-Iran Business Council, pointed out Ankara is attempting to increase trade with Tehran up to $30 billion in two years. Turkey alongside China and United Arab Emirates are the top three trade partners of Iran.
Ankara attempts to conduct a balancing act between Iranian hardliners and moderates, and often it tones down its rhetoric, because it is cognizant of the fact that Iranian hardliners- such as the Revolutionary Guard Corps- do not want to completely give their monopoly over the energy sector to Western and Turkish companies, and they view Turkey with suspicion. The recent heated rhetoric between Turkey and Iran will not rise into a major dispute. Since the 1639 Treaty of Qhasr-e Shirin, Iran and Turkey has maintained their relations. They have managed to settle their profound geopolitical differences mainly due to the convergence of economic interests. More fundamentally, the lifting of sanctions on Iran will bring Istanbul and Tehran closer together due their shared economic interests.