LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 25/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
Bible Quotation For Today/But many who are first will be last, and the last will be first.
Mark 10/28-31: “Peter began to say to Jesus, ‘Look, we have left everything and followed you.’Jesus said, ‘Truly I tell you, there is no one who has left house or brothers or sisters or mother or father or children or fields, for my sake and for the sake of the good news, who will not receive a hundredfold now in this age houses, brothers and sisters, mothers and children, and fields, with persecutions and in the age to come eternal life. But many who are first will be last, and the last will be first.”

Bible Quotation For Today/On the white stone is written a new name that no one knows except the one who receives it
Book of Revelation 02/12-17: “‘To the angel of the church in Pergamum write: These are the words of him who has the sharp two-edged sword: ‘I know where you are living, where Satan’s throne is. Yet you are holding fast to my name, and you did not deny your faith in me even in the days of Antipas my witness, my faithful one, who was killed among you, where Satan lives. But I have a few things against you: you have some there who hold to the teaching of Balaam, who taught Balak to put a stumbling-block before the people of Israel, so that they would eat food sacrificed to idols and practise fornication. So you also have some who hold to the teaching of the Nicolaitans. Repent then. If not, I will come to you soon and make war against them with the sword of my mouth. Let anyone who has an ear listen to what the Spirit is saying to the churches. To everyone who conquers I will give some of the hidden manna, and I will give a white stone, and on the white stone is written a new name that no one knows except the one who receives it.”

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 24-25/16
Whither the Middle East after the Iran nuclear deal/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/January 24/16/
As King Salman enters second year, Riyadh looks to China/Abdullah Hamidaddin/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
The rehabilitation of Iran after lifted sanctions/Eyad Abu Shakra/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
Syria’s humanitarian crisis: A priority, not an afterthought/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
Davos: With the Saudis absent, Zarif’s fairy tales prevailed/Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
Price of Syrian refugee crisis increasing/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
New US Airport in Syria While ISIL Struggles to Pay the Mujahedeen-But Where Are the Syrians/Middle East Briefing/MEB/January 24/16
Can China Go from`Fifth Wheel’ to Major Player in Middle East/Middle East Briefing/MEB/January 24/16
Ending Iran’s Sanctions: Impact on Tehran, Baghdad and Syria/Middle East Briefing/MEB/January 24/16

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january 24-25/16
George Nader criticize Aoun and Geagea for "omitting the martyrs of both sides"
Rifi Rejects President Subservient to 'Syrian Regime, Iran'
Report: Maarab Meeting Sparks Confusion among March 8, 14 Camps
Qaouq: Lebanon Will Never Be under Saudi Tutelage
Report: FPM Undecided on Attending Cabinet Session
Storm Forces Closure of Schools, Ports, Threatens Seaside Homes
5 Syrians Arrested for Illegally Entering Lebanon
Salam: Extremists Thrive due to Insufficient Support for Moderates

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january 24-25/16
Canada calls for restraint in Israel and West Bank
Rocket Fired from Gaza Hits Israel
Israel's Peres Hospitalized for 'Irregular Heartbeat'
Syria Regime Advances in Northwest ahead of Fragile Peace Talks
Storm-hit U.S. Digs Out but No End to Travel Misery
Iraq Summons Saudi Envoy for 'Interference' in Its Affairs
Kerry reassures Saudi Arabia of ‘solid relationship’
Sisi praises 2011 uprising, urges patience
Syria army seizes key rebel-held Latakia town
Gunmen kill 2 Egyptian policemen at checkpoint
Israel says no charges over video attack on rights groups
Tunisian youths demand jobs, say govt is failing them
Turkey detains 23 ISIS suspects and 21 children on Syria border: Army
Taliban reaffirms authority of its Qatar ‘political office’
Jordan kills 12 infiltrators attempting to enter from Syria
State will make no concessions during talks: Syrian official
Algeria raises alarm over Moroccans crossing toward Libya
Baghdad wants anti-ISIS coalition to train police
Egypt warns against violence ahead of Jan. 25

Links From Jihad Watch Site for january 24-25/16
Four Iranian Christians prosecuted for “spreading Christianity”
Florida Muslim pledged “allegiance to Allah,” said he would dress as The Joker and shoot his boss
UK: Muslim refugee threatened to cut out his wife’s heart because she had become “too English”
Khamenei praises Islamic Revolutionary Guards who captured US sailors, crows about “Americans with hands on heads”
Muslim airline pilots planned to bomb four UK cities for the Islamic State
Why should I feel any pain or trouble in cutting off the hand that was raised against the Holy Prophet?”
Seattle: “Strict Muslim” who killed 4 was on terrorism watch list
Iran funding recruitment of Pakistani Shias to battle the Islamic State

George Nader criticize Aoun and Geagea for "omitting the martyrs of both sides"
Thawrat Al Arz/Face book/January 24/16/Brigadier General George Nader, one of the Lebanese Army most distinguished fighting officers in the war of resistance against the Syrian occupation army criticized both Dr Geagea and General Aoun for "omitting the martyrs of the Lebanese Army and the Lebanese Forces despite the fact that the two leaders gave orders of combat during a horrible war." Nader admitted that he and other officers of the Lebanese Army met and reconciled with Lebanese Army officers over the past years. The issue was about the so-called reconciliation at the "Me3rab deal." There was no mention of those who were killed or wounded during that war of 1990. Nader's statement shows that even though it is 25 years later, the 1990 civil war among the Christians was not resolved and was never discussed. The partisans of the two leaders spent 25 years blasting each other accusing each other of being the first to start but never discussed the consequences of such a war. That war destroyed East Beirut and destroyed the free areas. That war was responsible for the Syrian occupation and Hezbollah victories. You don't throw it behind your backs and say we have nothing to do with it. Nader and many others are reminding us that there is something wrong which is not accepted by a majority of people.

Rifi Rejects President Subservient to 'Syrian Regime, Iran'
Naharnet/January 24/16/Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi lashed out Sunday at both Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun and Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh without naming them, stressing that the March 14 camp must not accept the election of a president who would be “subservient to the Syrian regime and Iran.”“We want a president who would not sell his history and the martyrs' dignity for the sake of his lust for power, a president who has not repeatedly insulted the martyrs in their graves,” said Rifi in a speech commemorating slain Internal Security Forces intelligence officer Major Wissam Eid and his companion Osama Merheb. Eid, a top communications analyst with the ISF Intelligence Branch, was assassinated in a January 25, 2008 car bombing outside Beirut. “We want a president whose presidential post would not be a prize for his selfish and destructive history,” added Rifi, who is an al-Mustaqbal movement official who is influential in Tripoli and the North. “We are in desperate need for a president who would bow to the martyrs, a president who has never bragged that he is the brother of a tyrant, a president who would not subject Lebanon to the repercussions of his relation with tyrants,” Rifi said, in an apparent reference to Franjieh. He stressed that Lebanon needs a president who would not “bargain over his country's security, a president who would be able to confront the terrorism of those who sent Michel Samaha and his killer bombs.”Former minister Samaha was released on bail earlier this month under a controversial Military Court ruling that has sent shockwaves across the country. He had been arrested in 2012 and charged with attempting to carry out "terrorist acts" over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. “We reject a president who would be subservient to the Syrian regime and Iran, regardless of his identity. We do not find a difference in the regard between (both candidates), because the policies of both of them contradict with the national principles of our March 14 forces,” Rifi added. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor. Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Franjieh as president. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Hariri's ally in the March 14 camp, was a presidential candidate at the time and some observers have said that the LF leader has recently nominated Aoun for the presidency as a “reaction” to Hariri's proposal. Geagea's endorsement of Aoun's bid was declared in a landmark ceremony in Maarab on Monday.

Report: Maarab Meeting Sparks Confusion among March 8, 14 Camps
Naharnet/January 24/16/The Maarab meeting that saw Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea endorse long-term rival Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun as president has created “confusion” among the March 8 and 14 coalitions, reported the Kuwaiti al-Anba daily on Sunday. Independent parliamentary sources told the daily that this “confusion” prompted the two camps to halt their “drive in endorsing either Aoun or Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president.” “They are currently awaiting the severe regional changes to affect the internal Lebanese scene,” they explained. Hizbullah's Loyalty to the Resistance bloc has not yet announced its stance on the Maarab meeting. Geagea on Friday said that his endorsement of Aoun will serve as a “great test” to Hizbullah in demonstrating just how committed it is to its ally Aoun and his candidacy for the country's top post. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. The next electoral session is set for February 8. Geagea's backing for Aoun has been seen as an attempt to end the impasse over the presidency.

Qaouq: Lebanon Will Never Be under Saudi Tutelage
Naharnet/January 24/16/A senior Hizbullah official stressed Sunday that Saudi Arabia will never be able to bring Lebanon under what he described as its “tutelage.”“Lebanon will never be under Saudi tutelage and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional,” said Sheikh Nabil Qaouq, the deputy head of Hizbullah's Executive Council. “We must confront the crimes and sins of the House of Saud (the kingdom's ruling family), because they have committed a great sin by launching ties and contacts with the Israeli entity,” Qaouq said. “The greatest condemnation against them is that (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu described Saudi Arabia two days ago as an ally of Israel,” he added. Turning to Lebanon, Qaouq asked Saudi-backed al-Mustaqbal movement about its stance on Saudi Arabia's alleged “contacts and ties with Israel.”“We also ask al-Mustaqbal about its continuous support for the Israeli-backed armed gangs in Syria and it is our right to ask its media outlets about their labeling of Daesh's attacks on (Syria's) Deir Ezzor as rebel attacks,” Qaouq added, using the Arabic acronym of the Islamic State group. “They did the same in the past during Daesh's assault on Iraq's Mosul, which indicates that there is insistence on covering up for Daesh's crimes in Iraq and Syria,” the Hizbullah official charged. He also accused Mustaqbal's media outlets of “desperately attempting to conceal Saudi Arabia's crimes in Yemen, Syria and Iraq.” “The Saudi regime is paying money to its tools in Lebanon with the aim of inciting against the resistance (Hizbullah), because it has exposed their crimes and managed to foil the major takfiri schemes in the region,” Qaouq added. A Saudi-Iranian war of words has been raging for several weeks now after Riyadh executed prominent Shiite dissident Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and angry Iranian protesters torched the Saudi embassy in Tehran. The tensions between Riyadh and Tehran have led to an exchange of tirades in Lebanon between Saudi Arabia and Iran's main allies in the country – Mustaqbal and Hizbullah.

Report: FPM Undecided on Attending Cabinet Session
Naharnet/January 24/16/The failure to resolve the dispute over the appointments of members of the military council may force the Free Patriotic Movement to yet again boycott the upcoming cabinet session, reported An Nahar daily on Sunday. The bloc has however not yet taken a stance on the session that is scheduled for Thursday. Defense Minister Samir Moqbel revealed that the candidates for the positions in the military council are available, which should clear the way for an agreement on the issue. The FPM and its ally the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc of Hizbullah had boycotted the latest government meeting over the dispute over military appointments. An Nahar reported that the upcoming days will witness further contacts to resolve remaining obstacles in this file. The FPM is calling for the appointment of senior military and security officers, especially to fill the vacancies in the military council, as a condition for attending cabinet sessions.

Storm Forces Closure of Schools, Ports, Threatens Seaside Homes
Naharnet/January 24/16/A snowstorm that has been lashing Lebanon since Friday night forced the closure of two ports in the southern city of Tyre on Sunday and prompted the education minister to order the closure of all public and private schools and technical institutes. The health minister has also ordered a closure of daycares across the country. In the afternoon, the storm forced the collapse of a barrier wall in Akkar's coastal town of Tal Hayat and residents were urging authorities to intervene before seawater enters their seaside houses, state-run National News Agency reported. The Red Cross meanwhile announced rescuing 13 people who had been stranded in snow in the Akkar area of Meshmesh. Accumulating snow has also cut off the vital Dahr al-Baidar road between the Bekaa region and the rest of the country, the Traffic Management Center announced in the evening. In the southern city of Tyre, the storm forced the closure of the commercial port and the fishermen's harbor for a second consecutive day, NNA said. The storm is expected to intensify in the upcoming hours, reported Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) earlier on Sunday. It said that the country will witness heavy rain and strong winds that may reach 90 kilometers per hour. Snow is expected to fall at altitudes of 1200 meters and even 700 meters at night. This will also be accompanied by a drop in temperatures. Concerned ministries and security forces have taken the necessary measures to ensure the safety of the roads in various areas. The Civil Defense has also urged people to exercise caution. A number of roads throughout the country have been blocked by snow, including the Tarshish-Zahleh, Hermel-Seer al-Dinnieh, al-Laqlouq-al-Aaqoura, Kfar Salwan-Tarshish, and Ouyoun al-Siman-Hadath Baalbek regions.
The weather will improve on Monday with spots of rain, but lower temperatures. Snow is expected to fall at altitudes of 600 meters.

5 Syrians Arrested for Illegally Entering Lebanon
Naharnet/January 24/16/The army announced on Sunday that it has arrested a number of Syrians for attempting to illegally enter Lebanon. It said that five Syrians were arrested at dawn in the Tallet al-Mrah-al-Masnaa region in the eastern Bekaa. They were handed over to the General Security. Two Syrian women were also discovered in the area. They were found to be in poor health due to the cold weather and have since been transferred by the Red Cross to the al-Mayas Chtaura hospital. One of the women later passed away.

Salam: Extremists Thrive due to Insufficient Support for Moderates
Naharnet/January 24/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam noted that the presence of members of the extremist Islamic State group in areas close to the Lebanese border “threatens the whole region,” reported CNN television.
He told the station in an interview: “The main reason extremism and terrorism have thrived in the region is the insufficient support for moderates.”The army frequently shells the positions of gunmen in areas close to the Lebanese-Syrian border, most particularly on the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal. In August 2014, the army was engaged in clashes with members of the IS and al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front, who overran the town. A number of soldiers, policemen, and gunmen were killed in the brief clashes.Security forces have in recent months arrested a number of suspected terrorists linked to these groups.

Canada calls for restraint in Israel and West Bank
January 24, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today released the following statement:
“Canada is concerned by the continued violence in Israel and the West Bank. ‎The violence has persisted for over 100 days.
“Canada believes strongly in a two-state solution and that negotiations provide the only viable path to peace. As a steadfast ally and friend to Israel, Canada calls for all efforts to be made to reduce violence and incitement and to help build the conditions for a return to the negotiating table.
“Unilateral actions, such as Palestinian initiatives toward statehood in international forums and continued Israeli settlements, are unhelpful and constitute serious obstacles to achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace.”

Rocket Fired from Gaza Hits Israel
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 24/16/A rocket fired by militants in the Palestinian Gaza Strip enclave hit southern Israel on Sunday without causing casualties or damage, the Israeli army said. A statement from the military said sirens sounded throughout communities in the south. "Initial report suggests rocket was launched from the Gaza Strip at Israel. No injuries have been reported," it said. A military spokeswoman told AFP one rocket had hit Israeli territory. Since the end of the devastating war in summer 2014 between Israel and Gaza militants, approximately 30 projectiles fired from the Hamas-controlled Palestinian enclave have hit Israel, military data shows. Sunni militants claiming links to the Islamic State jihadist group have said they were behind rocket fire from the Palestinian territory in recent months, but Israel holds Hamas responsible for all such incidents.

Israel's Peres Hospitalized for 'Irregular Heartbeat'
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 24/16/Former Israeli president and Nobel Peace Prize winner Shimon Peres was rushed to hospital on Sunday after feeling chest pains and being diagnosed with an "irregular heartbeat," a spokeswoman said. Peres will stay overnight at a Tel Aviv hospital "for observation and testing", she said in a statement, just 10 days after the 92-year-old suffered a mild cardiac event and underwent catheterization to widen an artery. On Tuesday, Peres had been released from the Sheba hospital. He was forced to cancel a planned trip the following day to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he had scheduled 15 meetings with world leaders and international officials. Peres is the founder of the Peres Peace Center and active in Israeli and international affairs. A co-architect of the 1993 Oslo peace accords, he won the 1994 Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was assassinated the following year, and the then Palestinian president Yasser Arafat. The last of Israel's founding fathers, Peres has held nearly every major office in the country, including being prime minister twice and president from 2007 to 2014.

Syria Regime Advances in Northwest ahead of Fragile Peace Talks
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 24/16/Pro-government forces overran the last major rebel-held town in Syria's coastal Latakia province Sunday, as the United Nations prepares to host talks on ending the country's nearly five-year war. State television said the army, working with pro-regime militia, took control of Rabia after heavy fighting with rebels. It was the second strategic victory for pro-regime forces in Latakia in less than two weeks, after they seized the town of Salma on January 12."In the coming weeks, we will be able to announce that all of Latakia -- city and province -- is free from armed groups," an army commander in Latakia told AFP. The army would now use Rabia as a launching point for ground operations against rebel-held towns to the east in adjacent Idlib province, he said. Rabia had been held by the opposition since 2012 and was controlled by rebel groups including some made up of Syrian Turkmen, as well as al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra Front. State news agency SANA said government forces were "combing the area to dismantle any explosive devices or mines planted by the terrorists." The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Rabia fell on Sunday after regime forces surrounded the town and captured 20 villages in the area. Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said senior Russian military officials oversaw the battle and that Russian air strikes "played an essential role" in the fight.
Blocking rebel attacks
With Rabia's capture, government forces are closing in on rebel supply routes through the Turkish border to the north, he added. Armed opposition factions have used northern parts of Latakia province to carry out rocket and bomb attacks on the provincial capital along the coast. Backed by Russian air power, pro-regime forces are chipping away at that territory in an attempt to secure the Assad clan's heartland. Rabia "is at the crossroads of supply routes in this region" leading northwest towards the Turkish border and further east to other rebel strongholds, said Syria analyst Fabrice Balanche. "By controlling this road, the Syrian army can block rebel movements towards the south, towards Latakia, and the rebels will have a hard time getting close and firing missiles at the (coastal) airport."Russia's air force has operated out of the Hmeimim military airport in Latakia province since September 30. Also on Sunday, three people were killed when a bomb exploded outside an Internet cafe in a mostly Christian neighborhood of Qamishli city in northeastern Hasakeh province. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the blast. The latest military advance came as world powers intensify efforts to reach a political solution to Syria's war. Representatives of the government and opposition were set to meet in Geneva on Monday as part of a U.N.-endorsed 18-month peace plan.
Peace talks snags
But sharp disagreements over the makeup of the opposition delegation, namely the inclusion of armed groups among negotiators, have slowed momentum and officials now say they expect a delay of a few days. U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura was to hold a news conference Monday in Geneva to discuss preparations for the peace talks. Opposition figure Samir Nashar said that the Saudi-backed High Negotiations Committee would meet on Tuesday in Riyadh to discuss who will represent the Syrian opposition in exile. The committee "rejects the inclusion of any new name" to the delegation that would attend the peace talks, Nashar told AFP. The Riyadh-based alliance of opposition groups, including the National Coalition, has already announced three delegates it will send to Geneva. But it came under fire for naming Mohamed Alloush from the powerful rebel group Jaish al-Islam (Army of Islam) as chief negotiator. The Syrian government considers Jaish al-Islam and other armed opponents to be "terrorist groups" with which it will not negotiate. On Sunday, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said upcoming talks should include Islamist rebels, though not "terrorists and Islamic extremists." "Where do you expect to find moderate groups after more than five years of civil war, extreme violence and spreading brutalization?" Steinmeier was quoted as telling the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. On the Turkish-Syrian border, Turkish authorities have detained 23 suspected IS militants who were trying to cross over illegally from Syria. In a statement published Sunday, the army said 21 children were with the jihadists and were also being held.

Storm-hit U.S. Digs Out but No End to Travel Misery
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 24/16/Millions of people in the eastern United States started digging out Sunday from a huge blizzard that brought New York and Washington to a standstill, but the travel woes were far from over. The storm -- dubbed "Snowzilla" -- killed at least 18 people after it walloped several states over 36 hours on Friday and Saturday, affecting an estimated 85 million residents who were told to stay off the roads and hunker down in doors for their own safety. Forecasters said the storm dumped more than 22 inches (56 centimeters) of snow on the paralyzed capital Washington and the 26.8 inches that fell in New York's Central Park was the second-highest accumulation in the city since records began in 1869. Near-record-breaking snowfall was also reported in other major cities up and down the U.S. East Coast, with Philadelphia and Baltimore also on the receiving end of some of the worst that Mother Nature could fling at them. With the storm finally tapering off overnight, officials in New York lifted a travel ban at 7:00 am Sunday (1200 GMT), restoring access to roads throughout the city and in Long Island and New Jersey. "You never like to disrupt transportation and commerce. However, the storm was fast and furious," said New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo. "So far, so good, but we have more work to do."Forecasters were predicting an altogether more forgiving outlook for the remainder of the weekend in New York and Washington -- blue skies and sunshine with temperatures hovering at about 32 degrees Fahrenheit (zero Celsius). However, there were concerns about lingering strong winds and melting snow, with streets in some New Jersey coastal towns filled with water and ice, raising the specter of flooding and dangerous black ice. "This system dumped copious amounts of snow over West Virginia, Virginia, Washington DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York. A few locations came close to, or surpassed all-time one-day and two-day snow records," said the National Weather Service. The fatalities occurred in Arkansas, Kentucky, New York, North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia, while more than 200,000 people were left without power at the height of the storm.
Please be careful'
Despite the generally better weather outlook, for many the hard work was just beginning and there was no immediate end in sight to the misery for thousands of air passengers. Nearly 3,500 domestic and international flights were canceled Sunday, adding to a growing backlog that had built up at major airports in New York, Philadelphia, Washington and Baltimore, which all ground to a halt at the height of the wintry onslaught. Authorities said they were working around the clock to restore operations, with the first arrivals and departures expected later in the day in New York. But Reagan National and Dulles International airports in the U.S. capital were expected to remain closed through Sunday, and buses and the metro system were also not due to return to action until Monday. Back on the streets, plows struggled to clear large mounds of snow in an attempt to get New York and the eastern portion of the U.S. back on its feet as soon as possible. Parked cars were buried under heavy snow and sidewalks were still impassable in places, as authorities scrambled to clear away the deluge for the start of the working week."People want to start to go outside and start shoveling and clearing their walks and driveways," said New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican presidential contender who left the campaign trail to oversee the emergency response in his state. "This is very heavy snow so I ask that they please be careful as they clean up their own property today or their businesses."It was not just the major cities that were hard hit.
Snow and sleet also buffeted the southern states of Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virginia and Virginia -- unusual for the region. Nearly 150,000 power outages were reported in North Carolina alone at the height of the storm, emergency officials said. On Sunday, that number had been whittled down to about 50,000.

Iraq Summons Saudi Envoy for 'Interference' in Its Affairs
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 24/16/Iraq's foreign ministry summoned Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Baghdad on Sunday to protest his "interference" in the country's internal affairs over remarks on militia forces fighting the Islamic State group. Thamer al-Sabhan is the first Baghdad-based Saudi ambassador in a quarter century, but while full diplomatic relations are restored, there is still significant hostility to Riyadh in some quarters and there have already been calls for the envoy's expulsion. The foreign ministry summoned Sabhan "to inform him of its official protest regarding his media statements that represented interference in Iraqi internal affairs," it said in a statement. Sabhan said in interview with al-Sumaria television that the Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary forces, which are dominated by Iran-backed Shiite militias, are not wanted in Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas as "they are not accepted by the sons of Iraqi society." Iraq turned to Shiite militia forces in 2014 to help counter an IS onslaught that overran large areas north and west of Baghdad, and they have played a key role in the fight against the jihadists. But militias and their affiliates have also carried out abuses including summary executions, kidnappings and destruction of property, and many members of the Sunni Arab and Kurdish minorities view them with suspicion. The foreign ministry defended the Hashed al-Shaabi, "which is fighting terrorism and defending the sovereignty of the country, and works under the umbrella of the state." Shiite politicians had earlier reacted angrily to the Saudi ambassador's comments, but the country's largest Sunni bloc defended him."The remarks of the Saudi ambassador indicate clear hostility and blatant interference in Iraqi affairs," Khalaf Abdulsamad, the head of the Dawa parliamentary list, said in a statement.
'Major insult'
"His talking about the Hashed al-Shaabi in this way is considered a major insult," Abdulsamad said, calling on the foreign ministry to "preserve the dignity of the Iraqi state and summon the Saudi ambassador and expel him from Iraq."Alia Nasayif, an MP from the State of Law bloc, said the ambassador's remarks "included clear attempts to provoke sectarian strife."And Hashed al-Shaabi spokesman Ahmed al-Assadi termed Sabhan an "ambassador of a state that supports terrorism" and called for Iraq to "expel this ambassador and punish him for his statements."Among Iraqi Shiites, Saudi Arabia is widely viewed as a supporter of extremists and opponent of their community. But Sabhan's comments were not universally panned, with the Alliance of Iraqi Forces, the main Sunni Arab bloc in parliament, describing his remarks as "very natural" and criticizing the "political campaign" against him. Sabhan's tenure in Iraq, which officially began when he presented his credentials 10 days ago, was off to a rocky start even before his recent remarks. Saudi Arabia's execution of activist and Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr at the beginning of the month sparked widespread anti-Riyadh anger, protests and calls for Sabhan to be kicked out of Iraq. Iraq has been plagued by years of tensions between its Shiite majority and Sunni minority, which ruled the country under Saddam Hussein, with tens of thousands killed in sectarian violence over the past decade. The United Nations said last week that more than 18,000 Iraqi civilians had been killed in the previous two years, many due to an upsurge in violence with the rise of IS.

Kerry reassures Saudi Arabia of ‘solid relationship’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Sunday, 24 January 2016/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reassured Saudi Arabia on Sunday of the "solid relationship" between both countries, even after the lifting of sanctions on the kingdom's regional rival Iran. "We have as solid a relationship, as clear an alliance, and as strong a friendship with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia as we've ever had," Kerry said before departing from Riyadh. "Nothing has changed because we worked to eliminate a nuclear weapon with a country in the region," he added. "We will continue to work in the region with our friends and our allies."Saudi King Salman on Saturday met with Kerry in the capital Riyadh, and discussed regional affairs, the state-run news agency reported. During the meeting, the two discussed the latest developments in the region, “particularly the latest developments on the Syrian arena as well as the importance of addressing the Iranian interference in the internal affairs of States,” according to the Saudi Press Agency. The meeting, which took place at the al-Auja palace, was attended by senior officials on both sides, including Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Saudi Foreign Minister Abdel al-Jubair, who Kerry had earlier met with. At a joint press conference after their earlier meeting on Saturday, Kerry expressed his concerns about Iran’s military support to the Shiite Lebanese movement Hezbollah. The United States and Saudi Arabia have both criticized and denounced Hezbollah’s support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime after protests erupted in Syria against the embattled leader’s rule in 2011 but turned into a civil war. Also on Saturday, foreign ministers of the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held a joint meeting with Kerry at King Salman airbase in Riyadh.

Sisi praises 2011 uprising, urges patience
The Associated Press, Cairo Sunday, 24 January 2016/Egypt's president paid tribute on Sunday to the country's 2011 uprising that toppled longtime ruler Hosni Mubarak, saying that protesters killed during the 18-day revolt had sought to revive "noble principles" and found a "new Egypt."President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi delivered his remarks via a televised speech on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the uprising. A recent spate of arrests and a heightened security presence in the capital Cairo have made clear Egyptian authorities' determination that the occasion will not be marked by popular demonstrations- or militant attacks. Sisi said the 2011 uprising had deviated from its course and was forcibly hijacked for "personal gains and narrow interests." That was a thinly veiled reference to the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been banned and declared a terror group after Sisi, as military chief, led the ouster in July 2013 of Islamist President Mohammed Mursi, who hails from the Brotherhood. The "June 30 revolution" - a reference to the day in 2013 when millions of Egyptians demonstrated on the streets against the rule of Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood - corrected the course of the 2011 uprising, Sisi said. The June 30 revolution, he said, took place to "restore the free will of Egyptians and continue to realize their legitimate aspirations and deserved ambitions." Sisi, who came to office in 2014 after a landslide election win, cautioned against high expectations for democracy and freedoms. "Democratic experiences don't mature overnight, but rather through a continuing and accumulative process," he said, before emphasizing the need to exercise "responsible freedom" to avoid "destructive chaos"- rhetoric harking back to Mubarak's 29-year authoritarian rule, when he repeated assertions that gradual democratization ensures stability. "Egypt today is not the Egypt of yesterday, we are building together a modern, developed and civilian state that upholds the values of democracy and freedom," he said of the 2 ½ years since the removal of Mursi, Egypt's first freely elected president. Sisi has since presided over one of the harshest crackdown seen in Egypt in decades, detaining thousands of Brotherhood leaders and supporters as well as scores of the liberal, pro-democracy activists who fueled the 2011 uprising. Under Sisi, rights activists say, the country's highly militarized police have resumed the Mubarak-era practices that played a large part in igniting the uprising, including torture, random arrests and, more recently, forced disappearances. Sisi supporters, however, say the ex-general has tirelessly worked to spare Egypt the chaos and bloodshed roiling regional neighbors like Libya, Syria and Iraq.

Syria army seizes key rebel-held Latakia town
Beirut, AFP Sunday, 24 January 2016/Syrian regime forces on Sunday overran the last major rebel-held town in the coastal Latakia province, a stronghold of President Bashar al-Assad, state television reported. Citing a military source, state television said Syria’s “armed forces, in coordination with the popular defence (militia), seized control of the town of Rabia.”The town had been held by the opposition since 2012 and was controlled by a range of rebel groups including some made up of Syrian Turkmen, as well as al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rabia fell on Sunday after a steady regime advance that left the town surrounded. “In the past 48 hours, regime forces surrounded the town from three sides - the south, west, and north - by capturing 20 villages,” Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. Abdel Rahman said senior Russian military officials were overseeing the battle for Rabia, and that Russian air strikes “played an essential role” in the fight.  With the capture of Rabia, government troops are closing in on rebel supply routes through the Turkish border to the north, he added. Rabia’s fall comes after government troops seized the strategic town of Salma on January 12, following months of operations to capture it from rebels who had held it since 2012.

Gunmen kill 2 Egyptian policemen at checkpoint
AFP | Cairo Sunday, 24 January 2016/Gunmen on a motorcycle opened fire on a checkpoint in Egypt Sunday, killing two policemen and a bystander, security officials said on the eve of the anniversary of the 2011 uprising. Another two policemen were wounded in the attack near the town of Fakous in the Nile Delta province of Sharkiya north of Cairo, they said. The identities of the attackers, who fled the scene, were not immediately known but police arrested three suspects in the area. Sunday’s shooting comes after eight people including six policemen were killed in a bomb blast on Thursday in Cairo. The explosion in the capital’s Al-Haram district, near the pyramids, came as police raided a flat suspected to be a militant hideout. An Egyptian affiliate of ISIS militant group claimed the blast. Sunday’s attack comes on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the start of the 18-day revolt that toppled longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak.The authorities have boosted security across the country to prevent attacks and protests, with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warning against any form of demonstration on Monday.

Israel says no charges over video attack on rights groups
Reuters | Jerusalem Sunday, 24 January 2016/Israeli authorities said on Sunday they decided against opening a criminal investigation of an ultranationalist group behind a video that accused the heads of four of Israel’s leading human rights organizations of being “foreign agents”. Activists had demanded the attorney general look into the 68-second video by Zionist group Im Tirtzu, saying it was incendiary. But the Justice Ministry said no criminal investigation was warranted because the video did not call for violence. Its main message, the ministry said, was for Israelis to back a proposed law to restrict foreign funding to aid groups. The clip - titled “The Foreign Agents - Revealed!” - is available on Facebook and YouTube (https://youtu.be/02u_J2C-Lso) and opens with dramatic, staged footage of an Arab-looking man drawing a knife on the street and moving to plunge it into a passerby. The video then shows pictures of rights workers from B’Tselem, which monitors Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel, Breaking the Silence, which collects anonymous testimony from Israeli soldiers, and the Center for the Defense of the Individual. None of the groups were immediately available for comment. The video accuses the groups’ members of working to defend Palestinians over and above Israel, and says the Netherlands, Germany, Norway and the European Union, all of which fund Israeli NGOs, are complicit. Its publication comes at a time of heightened tension within Israeli society, with right-wing groups accusing the government of being too soft on Palestinian violence and left-wing groups urging more restraint.

Tunisian youths demand jobs, say govt is failing them
The Associated Press, Tunisia Sunday, 24 January 2016/Unemployed young people from the Tunisian city that touched off nationwide protests say the government is failing them and protested anew Saturday in a precarious calm enforced by a nationwide curfew. Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring protest movement, is the only democracy to rise from those turbulent demonstrations five years ago, touched off by the suicide of a young man who despaired of making a living. The country has a 15 percent unemployment rate but among young people one in three is jobless. The government imposed a nationwide curfew on Friday night and has not said when it will be lifted. The nationwide protests this week were triggered by the death of a young man in Kasserine who was electrocuted when he climbed a transmission tower to protest losing out on a government job. The protests then spread to cities throughout the country, including scattered demonstrations in the capital Tunis, where a bank and some stores were looted. On Saturday, a small crowd at a government building in Kasserine reasserted their demands for jobs, while in Tunis the prime minister said the situation was under control. “We want to send a message to the president in my name and the name of everyone: We are demanding work. We’re not destroying. We’re not burning. We’re not causing chaos but just demanding jobs,” said Maher Nasri, an unemployed graduate. Tunisian leaders say they understand the protesters’ frustration but blamed criminals for the violence. The Interior Ministry said 261 people had been arrested, with a total of 423 since the unrest began. Emerging from an emergency government meeting to address the unrest, Prime Minister Habib Essid said the security situation was under control and he emphasized his optimism for the country’s future. The government, he pledged, “would be firm faced with the difficulties and multiple challenges of security, economy and society it confronts.”“The democratic process in Tunisia is an irreversible choice, despite the attempts of some to put in in doubt,” he said. A coalition of Tunisian human rights activists, lawyers, labor leaders and employers won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for their successful efforts to prevent Tunisia from descending into chaos and authoritarianism. But multiple terror attacks in 2015, claimed by ISIS, have caused incalculable damage to a North African economy heavily dependent upon tourism. And in Kasserine, protesters said the government needed to do far more to win their trust. “We want solutions that can be implemented,” said Ahlam Gharsalli. “We need urgent solutions because we’re fed up with waiting.”

Turkey detains 23 ISIS suspects and 21 children on Syria border: Army
By AFP Ankara Sunday, 24 January 2016/Turkish forces have detained 23 suspected Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants along with 21 children who were trying to illegally cross over from Syria, the army said Sunday. The suspects, whose nationalities were not disclosed, were captured on Saturday as they tried enter the Elbeyli district of Turkey's southern Kilis province. “Twenty-three people suspected of being Daesh (ISIS) terror group members, together with 21 children, were caught," said the army in a statement, without giving any other details. Turkey has over the last year been told by its Western allies to urgently step up efforts to stop the flow of militants across its borders to and from Syria. After a string of deadly attacks inside Turkey blamed on ISIS in the last months, Ankara has intensified efforts to improve border security, with the army reporting the capture of ISIS militants almost daily. The army reported on Saturday that it had on Friday also captured six ISIS suspects, along with eight children, who were trying to cross illegally from Syria to Turkey in the same area.

Taliban reaffirms authority of its Qatar ‘political office’
By AP Dubai, UAE Sunday, 24 January 2016/The Afghan Taliban says its “political office” in Qatar is the only entity authorized to carry out negotiations on its behalf, reinforcing the authority of the man who took over amid a tussle over command following the death of Mullah Mohammad Omar. The Taliban made the declaration in a summary emailed by spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid on Sunday of a statement it made during unofficial, closed-door talks taking place in the Qatari capital, Doha. Those talks are organized by Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, a Nobel peace prize-winning group focused on resolving conflict.Members of the Taliban's Qatar office are believed to be directly linked to Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, who officially assumed the top position after Omar's death was announced last year.

Jordan kills 12 infiltrators attempting to enter from Syria
Reuters, Amman Sunday, 24 January 2016/Jordanian troops on Saturday killed 12 infiltrators in a foiled attempt to cross from Syria into the kingdom, an army statement said. Another 24 fled back into Syria after they were shot at by troops with the army confiscating 2 million drug capsules that were left behind, the statement said. The Jordanian border guards acted under rules of engagement to shoot and kill anyone seeking to infiltrate across 370-km (230-mile) border with Syria. Jordan says it has tightened controls over its northern border with Syria and officials say the army has thwarted many attempts in recent years by jihadists trying to cross from the kingdom into Syria to join a Sunni Islamist-led insurgency against President Bashar al-Assad.

State will make no concessions during talks: Syrian official
AP | Beirut Sunday, 24 January 2016/A senior official in Syrian President Bashar Assad’s ruling Baath party says the government will not make any new concessions in future peace talks. Hilal al-Hilal’s comments come ahead of scheduled peace talks in Geneva in the coming days to work on ending Syria’s nearly five-year conflict, which has killed more than 250,000 people. His remarks were carried by state media Sunday. The Geneva talks, which were to begin Monday but will likely be delayed, are part of a U.N. plan that envisions an 18-month timetable for a political transition. The Syrian opposition says Assad should have no role in Syria’s future, even during a transitional period. Assad, whose family has governed Syria for more than four decades, has said he will only step down if voted out.

Algeria raises alarm over Moroccans crossing toward Libya
The Associated Press, Algiers Sunday, 24 January 2016/Algeria’s government is raising the alarm over what it describes as a large influx of Moroccans crossing its territory to reach Libya. Without offering numbers, the Algerian state news agency reported Saturday that the country’s minister in charge of North African affairs had met earlier with the Moroccan ambassador to report the unusual number of people crossing from the Casablanca area in recent weeks. ISIS has been increasing its calls for Muslims to join its extremists in the lawless parts of Libya, and Moroccans in general make up an unusually large number of its recruits. Algeria told the ambassador that Moroccans who head to Libya without documentation will be sent home.

Baghdad wants anti-ISIS coalition to train police
AFP Sunday, 24 January 2016/Baghdad wants the coalition engaged in the fight against the ISIS group to train Iraqi police officers, a senior U.S. official said Saturday. The request comes as the anti-ISIS partners are preparing to boost their support in the battle against the militants launched in August 2014.
“The Iraqis very much would like more help with the training of the local police force,” a senior U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They think it’s made a significant difference in Ramadi,” the Iraqi city retaken from ISIS after a fierce battle, “and they want to see it duplicated.”Senior U.S. defense officials will meet in Brussels on February 11 with defense ministers from 26 nations that are part of the U.S.-led coalition, as well as Iraqi representatives, to see what additional contributions countries can deliver. The coalition needs to find different ways to help, beyond trainers, such as by providing military advisors, special forces soldiers, planes and aircraft for aerial intelligence, according to Washington. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi met Friday with U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter at the Davos gathering of policymakers and business leaders and expressed his interest in getting support for police training, the U.S. official said. After recovering Ramadi in late December, local police trained by Italian Carabinieri were deployed to provide security. Their efficiency allowed elite Iraqi Special Forces soldiers to leave the city earlier than expected to begin another mission, the U.S. official said. “If police can hold territory” and Iraq’s commandos “can move on to the next mission, that’s a big deal,” the official said. He described the commandos, known as the Counter Terrorism Service (CTS), as Iraq’s “best forces” and “most capable” soldiers. “One month of training in the eyes of the Iraqis made a significant difference ... and they are very eager to get additional assistance in the training of the police forces,” the official said. The coalition’s strategy is aimed at destroying ISIS by focusing on their power centers in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul and Raqqa in Syria.

Egypt warns against violence ahead of Jan. 25
The Associated Press, Cairo Sunday, 24 January 2016/Egypt's president, speaking ahead of next week's anniversary of the 2011 uprising that toppled longtime ruler Hosni Mubarak, vowed on Saturday to unleash a firm response to any unrest and to press ahead with the fight against the country's Islamic militants.
Abdelfattah al-Sisi spoke at a ceremony marking Police Day, which falls on Jan. 25, the day the uprising began five years ago. He posthumously decorated nearly 40 policemen killed in militant attacks, including eight generals and three colonels. Most of the widows who received the medals were accompanied by their children, including infants. Sisi, his eyes frequently welling up, carried the infants, hugged and kissed older children and posed with them for photos. He allowed several family members, including a boy no older than 12, to briefly address the large gathering. Addressing the nation, Sisi said of those killed in terror attacks: "Don't let their blood go in vain and, by the way, we will not allow that ourselves, and I am saying that so everyone listens and takes note," he said. "The security and stability of nations are not to be toyed with," he said, adding that the security of Egypt was the responsibility of all Egyptians, not just the police and the army. Sisi delivered his 30-minute address standing in the middle of the families of the policemen killed in terror attacks, with the sound of crying babies occasionally heard in the background. Sisi, who as military chief overthrew in 2013 Islamist President Mohammed Mursi, has presided over a sweeping crackdown on dissent, jailing thousands of Islamists and scores of secular, pro-democracy activists who fuelled the 2011 uprising. He was elected to office in 2014 with a landslide.
Sisi made no mention of the January 2011 uprising in his comments. He has in the past paid tribute to the uprising, just as he has done to the so-called "June 30 revolution," the day in 2013 when millions of Egyptians demonstrated on the streets against the rule of Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood. However, some of Sisi's supporters in the media and in politics have taken to publicly vilifying the 2011 uprising as an attempt by foreign powers to weaken Egypt through local saboteurs. The nearly two-hour ceremony, with its many emotional moments and high praise for police, confirmed the president's panache for populism, but also appeared to send a multitude of political messages. Foremost among these is that Sisi has endorsed the nation's highly militarized police force, paying no heed to growing complaints by rights activists that it has gone back to Mubarak-era practices like torture, random arrests and the use of excessive force.
The high praise of the police for their role in the fight against the militants and securing stability also signal the complete return of respectability to a force that melted away in the face of the 2011 uprising's protesters and took at least two years to fully shoulder its responsibilities again.
The posthumous decorations also offered a rare insight into the heavy toll endured by the police in the fight against the militants. Hundreds of army soldiers have been killed by the militants too, but the military has been secretive recently about its losses. Egypt has been battling Islamic militants in Sinai for years, but attacks against security forces have significantly increased in frequency after Mursi's ouster and later spread to the mainland, with assassinations and bombings. The latest of these came Thursday when a bomb killed six people, including three policemen, in Cairo's twin city of Giza. The Egyptian affiliate of ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. The president spoke a day after the army said it would beef up security measures to safeguard vital installations and "confront any attempt to violate the law, impact the nation's security and stability." The announcement came amid an ongoing crackdown on dissent ahead of Monday's anniversary. Authorities have visited and searched as many as 5,000 apartments in the past 10 days, primarily in central Cairo, seeking to prevent protests. The administrators of several Facebook pages suspected of links to the Brotherhood have been detained and accused of using social media to call for protests. Most secular and liberal pro-democracy activists are not expected to take to the streets on Monday to mark the anniversary, with many saying that doing so would only add to the number of protesters killed or detained by police. Mursi supporters, however, have been calling for protests, but these are likely to be restricted to neighborhoods where they maintain a heavy presence, not landmark squares or main streets. Police have shown zero tolerance for anti-government street demonstrations since Mursi's ouster and, in view of Sisi's comments Saturday, are not likely to change that policy on Monday. However, there are fears that militants might take advantage of the anniversary to stage attacks against security forces.

Whither the Middle East after the Iran nuclear deal
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/January 24/16/Those of us wordsmiths writing, thinking , wondering and obsessing about things Middle Eastern have a new phrase to ponder; ‘Implementation day’. On January 16, 2016 you could hear many people saying: rejoice, the day we have been waiting for is upon us, while others denounced it as a day that shall live in infamy. After the International Atomic Energy Agency or IAEA certified that Iran had delivered on its initial commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the United States and the P5+1 and the IAEA announced that the implementation of the nuclear deal with Iran has begun on January 16, 2016. In return for Iran’s dismantlement of more than two-third of the centrifuges it once used to enrich uranium, shipping 98 percent of its low-enriched uranium stockpile to Russia and rendering its heavy water reactor at Arak obsolete after removing its reactor and pouring concrete into it, ‘implementation day’ also triggered the suspension of a complex web of nuclear related sanctions the U.S. the European Union and the United Nations have imposed on Iran in recent years. The nuclear accord will allow Iran, inter alia, to retrieve at least $60 billion of its frozen assets and to return to the international oil market as a major producer. The nuclear deal is not open ended and does not eliminate Iran’s ability in the future to become a nuclear power, but if it is fully implemented it will severely restrict Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear device in the next 10 to 15 years.
The nuclear deal does not signal the emergence of Iran as the undisputed regional hegemon, for Iran lacks the economic and military requisites for such status. However, it signals the recognition of the United States and the other major powers of Iran’s rising importance as a state and a regional power with clout and interests that cannot be ignored or easily intimidated. What began as secret negotiations between the United States and Iran then developed into open and multilateral negotiations, remained restricted to the nuclear domain. And while American and Iranian officials did informally discuss other issues on the sidelines of the official talks, the U.S. and its allies, in a major concession to Iran did not seek to link the nuclear talks to Iran’s blatant interventions in the internal affairs of its neighbors, or for that matter, Iran’s blatant violations of the fundamental rights of its own citizens. For all of President Obama’s claims about supporting the struggles of the peoples of the Middle East for dignity, and political empowerment, his administration repeatedly failed Arabs and Iranians when they demanded these rights.
The day after
The nuclear deal may have been a victory for those Iranian ‘bridge-builders’, as analyst Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment For International Peace calls them, ‘people like President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif that want to build bridges with the West, with the United States,’ at the expense of ‘the saboteurs within the Revolutionary Guards,’ who don’t have much popular support, but yield much ‘coercive power’, but it remains a limited victory and not a panacea. The saboteurs and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made it clear by actions and words that the day after ‘implementation day’ of the nuclear deal does not signal a new beginning with the United States. Even if Iran uses a tiny portion of its released frozen assets after ‘implementation day,’ it will be enough to sustain the financial burdens of the operations of the Quds force and Hezbollah in Syria
Missile tests were conducted in violation of U.N. resolutions, and American sailors who accidentally entered Iranian waters were publicly humiliated before they were freed. Recently, the Guardian Council, supposedly the body of the stern custodians of the purity of the revolution which is tasked with vetting candidates for next month's parliamentary elections decimated the hopes of the ‘bridge builders’ by disqualifying thousands of reformers. Finally, as if to extinguish any hope of a détente with the U.S. Ayatollah Khamenei warned Iranian President Rouhani to guard against American ‘deceptions’. To be sure, Iran has a large modern, war weary and mostly youthful constituency for re-integrating Iran in a globalized world, and ushering in a new beginning with the United States; but this constituency of peace is not about to forcefully challenge the hardliners and the ‘saboteurs’ who crushed the ideals of Iran’s Green Revolution in 2009.
Most states in the Middle East opposed Iran’s nuclear program, most vociferously Israel, the only country in the region with advanced nuclear weapons and delivery systems. A nuclear Iran would enhance its deterrence against Israel, while maintaining a significantly armed Hezbollah close to Israel’s borders. But for most of Iran’s Arab neighbors, the immediate threat is not a potential nuclear arsenal that could be used against them, but Iran’s considerable mastery of the art of conducting proxy wars to spread its regional clout, and its growing ability to influence and exploits the marginalized Shiite communities in Arab societies in its struggles with Arab governments. It goes without saying that those Arab governments that continue to alienate their Shiite populations end up pushing them deeper into Iran’s orbit.
The day after the ‘implementation day’, is essentially the beginning of President Obama’s last year in office, which is likely to be the year of living more dangerously than in previous years for the whole region. The nuclear deal with Iran, will renew the pre-existing real and imagined fears among America’s allies that the Obama administration has begun the long process of normalizing relations with an ascendant Iran, at a time when the U.S. is doing enough to keep the faltering Iraqi state from collapsing, and enough to ‘manage’ but not stop the wars in Syria, and Libya while kicking the hot cans down the road to the next president. Those Cassandras forecasting gloom and doom in 2016 and beyond can only point out to the collapsing prices of oil to buttress their dark prophesies of the great unwinding of the region.
Iraq, the times of the scavengers
The crashing oil prices, the mounting cost of the war against the Islamic State (ISIS), continued conflict with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over oil revenues, and widespread corruption will combine to create an economic perfect storm in Iraq this year, even though the country is producing more than 4 million barrels of oil a day. Politically and militarily the picture is grimmer. Turkey has informed the United States that it will not withdraw its military forces from Northern Iraq, a deployment ostensibly to fight ISIS is in fact designed to check potential greater Iranian encroachment into the Mosul region an area that was for centuries part of the Ottoman Empire. Northern Iraq is being treated by the claimants of the Ottoman and Persian Empires as a buffer zone under the nominal suzerainty of a weak authority in Baghdad. Both Turkey and the KRG see Baghdad drifting further and further into Iran’s universe. Turkish, Kurdish and Gulf Arab officials believe that those who control whatever leavers of power left in Iraqi hands are the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), or al-Hashd al-Sha’abi, the Shiite paramilitary formations established in June 2014 to fight ISIS following its occupation of Mosul. While these units are nominally an integral part of the Iraqi security forces (ISF) joint command in Baghdad, they are answerable to Iraqi groups beholden to Iran, and ultimately controlled by the Quds Force, a branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a division tasked with external military and clandestine operations, and led by the ubiquitous General Qasem Soleimani. The assessment of American diplomats and senior military officers in Baghdad and Erbil, regarding Iran’s grip on Iraq, is not that far from the assessment of the weary neighbors, according to recent visitors to Iraq. That gloomy American assessment of Iraq’s future from the heart of Baghdad is not reflected in the more upbeat and deceptive assessments one hears from officials in Washington in charge of what goes for U.S. policy in Iraq.
Ramadi as a metaphor for Iraq
For all the talk about liberating Mosul from ISIS following the military campaign to oust ISIS from Ramadi, no serious analyst of Iraq expects that battle any time soon, and probably not this year, which means that Obama will leave Washington while Iraq’s second largest city which fell into the pretend Caliph al-Baghdadi’s hand on his watch, will remain in that twilight zone they call the Islamic Caliphate, with the Kurdish North under the control of the KRG, and Western Iraq under the beleaguered Sunni tribes, and a ‘central’ government with a weak writ over the Shiite lands stretching from Baghdad to Basra in the south. Long after Obama departs the White House and forgets his eloquent speeches about Iraq and the rest of the Middle East the scavengers of ISIS and the PMUs will continue to feed on Iraq’s carcass.
U.S. officials concede now that the battle for Ramadi was from planning to execution a wholly American controlled and directed operation. The battle’s outcome, which led to the ultimate destruction of the city, highlights America’s dilemma in trying to get regular Iraqi army ground units that include Sunni Arabs to fight and coordinate effectively with U.S. advisors and air power against ISIS controlled cities without relying heavily on the PMUs. In fact there were credible press reports that elements of the PMUs, the same elements that slaughtered Sunni civilians after routing ISIS fighters from cities like Tikrit, were involved in the fierce fighting at Ramadi. The liberated Ramadi is uninhabitable; it is estimated that rebuilding the city will cost $10 billion. To paraphrase that infamous quote from the Vietnam War; it became necessary to destroy Ramadi in order to save it.
Syria, the perfect storm is upon us
The methodical killing of the Syrian state and society mostly at the hands of the Assad regime, before it was joined by ISIS and other radical Islamists, could not have been done so thoroughly and systematically without Iran’s active and direct involvement along with its sectarian Shiite proxies, particularly the Lebanese Hezbollah and other lesser known Shiite militias and non-Arab Shiite ‘volunteers’. With each phase of what American officials call the Syrian Peace Process, Iran and its proxies have deepened their grip on Syria. Long before Russia’s recent military intervention, it was Iran and its Shiite Lebanese Janissaries that saved the Assad regime from imminent collapse.
Even if Iran uses a tiny portion of its released frozen assets after ‘implementation day’ it will be enough to sustain the financial burdens of the operations of the Quds force and Hezbollah in Syria. Russia’s military intervention has so far widened the Syrian war, and made its resolution the more difficult, but Iran was and is the outside force with the most at stake in Syria, and the ultimate arbiter when it comes to the future of the Syrian despot Assad. Short of a fundamental shift in Iran’s policy towards Syria, and to a lesser extent that of Russia (such as dumping Assad and accepting a transition towards a more inclusive form of governance acceptable to most opposition groups outside ISIS and al-Nusra Front) the war will continue, no matter what happens at the peace fora at comfortable European hotels. And short of an equally fundamental shift in the policy of the United States towards ISIS (such as adopting a unified strategy to defeat the Caliphate in both Syria and Iraq, through the deployment of more U.S. special forces and limited ground units working with allied special forces moving up the Euphrates valley to retake Raqqa in Syria, as a prelude to routing ISIS from Mosul) ISIS will remain capable of bleeding Syria beyond the Obama years.
While the physical destruction visited on Syrian cities and infrastructures is immense – a testimony to the efficient brutality of the Syrian regime and its allies, including Russia- the pulverization of Syrian society, the murder of Syria’s best and brightest, the transformation of more than 4 million Syrians into refugees and double that number into internal exile is the real calamity that befell Syria in the last five years. Bridges, roads and schools can be rebuilt, but is it possible to rebuild the social and cultural bonds among Syria’s once rich and largely welcoming mosaic of religious and ethnic communities? Can the beasts of sectarianism and demonization be tamed any time soon, especially in the absence of a potential clear victor that will not exact retribution from the vanquished?
With Iran in a better position to support its Syrian satrapy centered on Damascus and the coastal region, the Syria we have known for most of the last century will continue to disintegrate into warring regions and factions. The perfect storm is upon us in Syria. Unless ISIS is defeated, and unless Iran’s ability to wreak havoc in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon is checked, the unraveling of the Levant and Mesopotamia will continue, but its reverberations will not be limited to a broken Middle East, and in the era of globalized sacred terror no one can be immune.

As King Salman enters second year, Riyadh looks to China
Abdullah Hamidaddin/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
The Chinese president’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the region can be seen as a response to rising tensions between Riyadh and Tehran. Beijing has important relations with both countries, and cannot afford to lose either. A zero-sum confrontation between Riyadh and Tehran places China in a delicate position: It wants to keep equal closeness to both countries, in a situation that may demand preferential ties. The worst-case scenario for Beijing would be a regional war that could deprive it of its energy needs. China also understands that what happens in the Middle East reverberates among its Muslim population. Moreover, very low oil prices will strain China’s economy, according to an analysis by The Economist. However, there is much more to this visit. Saudi Arabia had been looking toward China for almost a decade. It foresaw the decline in U.S. interest in the region, and decided that it needed other strategic partners for its economic growth and security.
China is very keen on engaging Saudi Arabia and the wider Arab world on many levels
This interest in China has increased greatly since Saudi King Salman became monarch a year ago. The start of his reign coincided with increasing American disengagement from the Arabian Gulf, and his main priority was to fill the power vacuum that was increasing daily. The best way to do so would have been for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran to sit together and agree on how to manage this vacuum in a way that leads to a balance of power between them, and hence stability. However, Tehran was bent on taking as much as it could and leveraging the nuclear deal, thus threatening regional stability and security.
Requirements
With Washington on the sidelines and Iran’s aggressive regional posture, Gulf states need allies that can, and are willing to, play a regional balancing role. However, those allies should recognize mutual common values, not only shared material interests. The United States has always minimized the extent of the values it shares with Saudi Arabia, instead highlighting mutual interests. We need allies that genuinely acknowledge and respect our values, and understand that progress needs time. They should need Saudi Arabia as much as Saudi Arabia needs them. However, we need allies that have good relations with Iran. Riyadh needs allies whose intervention is not military, but in the form of strong and effective diplomacy based on their global weight and Tehran’s need for them. Such allies should not work closely with Iran on matters that undermine GCC interests, and should actively pursue an upgrade in strategic relations with Riyadh. That is where China comes in. It is more sympathetic to the region’s values, and understands the imperatives of development. There is a balanced mutual need between Riyadh and Beijing. China has strong ties with Iran, is needed by it, and thus can apply pressure to curb Iranian aggression.
Unlike Russia, Beijing is not in bed with Tehran over some of the most critical regional issues. China is also very keen on engaging Saudi Arabia and the wider Arab world on many levels, as its first Arab policy paper clearly shows. For all these reasons, Beijing is the perfect Gulf ally at this time of U.S. disengagement.

The rehabilitation of Iran after lifted sanctions
Eyad Abu Shakra/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
What is President Barack Obama leaving behind for his successor in the White House? Well, the situation in the Middle East looks a bit worrying after the lifting of international sanctions on Iran. Practically, the international community has rehabilitated Iran, shown trust in its leadership and political stances and overlooked all its international, regional and even domestic transgressions committed by a regime that practices its own brand of “democracy”. It is a regime whereby the government doesn’t govern, but is rather led by a “Supreme Guide” who guides, directs and commands in liaison with a militia named “The Revolutionary Guards”. However, one must not belittle the achievements of Iran’s “non-governing government”. Ever since Hassan Rowhani was elected president, a new set of realistic priorities emerged in Tehran, which is totally different from former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s strident dogmatism.
PR has become the hallmark of the Rowhani era in political, economic, media and security/military matters as approved by the “Guide” and “Revolutionary Guards”. Among the shining stars of this era is the Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif and his team of “diplomats”, intelligence experts and dealers-fixers active with foreign lobbies, especially in the U.S. However, there are those who claim that such a significant shift has not been achieved by Rowhani’s election but rather his election was very much part of its script. The dealers-fixers working for the Iranian regime in the U.S., UK and other major Western powers were not implanted and nurtured after the election of the new president, but have been active in influence buying and connection building for decades.
Long time coming
The seeds of “rehabilitating Iran” were sown some time ago. In fact, it is enough to remember the “Iran-Contra” deal in the days of the bitter vitriol between Ronald Reagan’s Washington and Ayatullah Khomeini’s Tehran whereby all talk of the “Great Satan” was totally forgotten.
In such a context, the Rowhani presidency becomes exactly the much needed development to affect a strategic change in the geo-political scene of the Middle East. Somehow this is not much different from the emergence of ISIS, an organization born in unfamiliar circumstances with a weird chemistry and dubious actions. True to form, here comes Iran to present to the world its credentials not only as a “partner” in economic development and rewarding investments but also in fighting terrorism and defending and promoting human rights – including minorities’ rights! Iran’s sectarian discourse, translated on the ground by “exporting the revolution”, started a process of building extremist, and later armed, sectarian affinities. 
The latter claim could not have been sold had it not been for two facts. Firstly, Iran’s diligent investment in its “tentacles” abroad. Secondly, its understanding of politics is based on interests and not on principles and morality. These two facts have always been part of Tehran’s thinking since 1979 and have allowed the current pragmatic leadership to benefit from services provided by politically influential figures in many global capitals. The next step that followed was convincing the public in America and Europe that Iran was a “useful” partner in several areas unlike its regional adversaries, and a player who knows how to play the “game” even if it has to resort to outbidding those adversaries in upholding the virtues of Islam, revolution and confronting imperialism and Israel.
The “Arab Spring” has come to reveal a very important truth, one needs to confess. The Arab world neither anticipated it nor was aware of its dimensions and costs. Indeed, until this moment, and despite the momentous events that shook and continue to shake the Arab countries affected by that “Spring” Arab public opinion still seems divided over where it is leading and is confused as what to do.
Defending interests
This situation has allowed the three major non-Arab powers in the Middle East – Israel, Iran and Turkey – to flex their muscles and declare their “right” to defend their “vital interests” in the region as Arab authority disintegrates. As far as Israel is concerned, the Likud and its extreme right-wing coalition partners now feel free to destroy any chance of a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians that would ensure the right of self-determination. On another front, Sunni-Shiite polarization has now reached the stage of demographic cleansing and state partitioning as we see is taking place in several parts of Syria and the Diyala Province in Iraq. Iran’s sectarian discourse, translated on the ground by “exporting the revolution” in speech and actions, began a process of building extremist, and later armed, sectarian affinities. The reaction to such a venture was merely a matter of time. In fact, it came in more than one form, such as the ascendancy of conservative Sunni parties in several Arab and Muslim countries including hitherto secular Tunisia and Turkey and the emergence of extremist Sunni groups claiming to confront Shiite political and military hegemony in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
For Iran, the founding of sectarian militias was an important step in “exporting the (Iranian brand of the Shiite) revolution”, more so after its ambition led to the First Gulf War (The Iraq – Iran War).
Political climate
Later, Tehran’s strategy succeeded thanks to Hezbollah’s successes in Lebanon, Iran’s penetration of the Palestinian arena through Hamas and investment in “resisting” Israel and even winning over leftist and nationalist sectors “orphaned” by the collapse of the USSR and the signing of Camp David agreement.
In any case what is now taking place in the Middle East has been made possible by a very helpful political climate, especially in the U.S. where Washington’s policies need no clarifications. Obviously, American and Western business and political interests have strongly contributed to the decision of “rehabilitating” Iran. However, this is happening against a background of human tragedies, demographic changes, failing states, costly ethnic and sectarian animosities and rancor. Still, the West would not mind all this as it has decided to treat ISIS as a phenomenon that sums up all the Sunnis of the region, and bet on Iran as an ally in its global war against Sunni terrorism exclusively! This policy may succeed in the short term, but is doomed in the end because it is the surest way of nurturing extremism and bigotry. This, exactly, is the Middle East that will throw more of its refugees into Europe and that Barack Obama will leave behind to his successor.

Syria’s humanitarian crisis: A priority, not an afterthought
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/January 24/16
Days ago, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) released a statement urging all parties involved to make renewed efforts to end the Syrian conflict and alleviate the dire humanitarian crisis in the war-ravaged country. Signed by at least 120 humanitarian organizations, the appeal called for several steps to be taken that would immediately address the suffering “in the name of our shared humanity.” There is not one sentence in the statement that shouldn’t be immediately heeded by the barbaric Assad regime and its backers as well as all rebel groups. The statement comes as the conflict nears entering into its sixth year. According to Mercy Corps, half of the country’s pre-war population has been killed or forced to flee their homes. European states have tightened their borders while Arab states need to do far more to tackle the crisis.
Reports suggest the Geneva talks have already been derailed by Russia attempting to dictate who should attend. Over the last 72 hours, reports of at least 45 refugees – including 17 children – drowning to death in the Aegean Sea emerged while dozens of civilians were killed by Russian strikes in eastern Syria. As scores of refugees continue to die while trying to flee by boat and children are getting killed, who will enforce the basic humanitarian norms the world continues to call for in Syria? Reports suggest the upcoming peace talks in Geneva have already been derailed by Russia attempting to dictate who should attend. It is worth noting that Moscow – which serves only to prop up the Assad regime and secure its rule – should have no influence over which parties should join upcoming negotiations and which should be barred from doing so.
Adopted resolutions
Meanwhile, 48 hours before the talks were set to begin, the Syrian opposition rightly pointed to the absurdity of expecting negotiations to start, yet again, while massacres continue and previous agreements are being ignored. But if the latest round of talks do take place in the immediate term, they absolutely must focus on the concerns outlined in the UNICEF appeal. It is all but certain that the talks will fail to bring forth any long-term solution to the conflict at this stage. The U.S. and U.N. representatives should reset the agenda during the negotiations and prioritize immediately to focus on ending the suffering. The four demands presented by UNICEF – that call for humanitarian organizations to be able to operate freely in all areas of need as well as for monitored ceasefires – should serve as an outline for broader humanitarian goals.
“There is no practical reason they could not be implemented if there is the will to do so,” UNICEF noted. The upcoming talks should seek to demonstrate this will and should focus on how to best implement the objectives the organization has outlined. It remains to be seen whether the talks will even take place on Monday in Geneva and, critically, whether or not the most important parties will attend. Irrespective of whether they take place or not, previously adopted resolutions – including 2254 – should start to get enforced. Possible long term solutions to the conflict can only be discussed and implemented once these past agreements start to be honored.

Davos: With the Saudis absent, Zarif’s fairy tales prevailed
Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/January 23/16
Iranian Foreign Secretary Mohammad Javad Zarif certainly got a free ride at this year’s World Economic Forum. His views on the region went completely unchallenged in the absence of a counter-argument, and due to the format of his session, members of the audience were not able to ask questions or intervene.
However, one must admit that Zarif’s ability to twist facts is phenomenal! Indeed, had there been an award at Davos for “Spin Doctor of the Year,” then he would have won it… hands down! Iran’s FM made it seem like Tehran was the region’s cuddly teddy bear who has been desperately trying to reconcile with Saudi Arabia, which he naturally portrayed as the “big bad wolf.” Iran’s FM made it seem like Tehran was the region’s cuddly teddy bear who has been desperately trying to reconcile with Saudi Arabia, which he naturally portrayed as the “big bad wolf.” Frankly, I wasn’t sure if Zarif was being serious or joking when he stressed in front of the WEF audience of global movers and shakers that his country is a firm believer in diplomacy as a means of resolving conflicts. If this is the case, then what on earth is the Iranian Quds Force (or paramilitary terrorist groups affiliated to it) doing in Iraq and Syria? In fact, this elite Revolutionary Guard Unit is so focused on destabilizing Iran’s Arab neighbors that I honestly suggest it should be renamed the “Anywhere-but-Quds Brigade.”Furthermore, if the Iranian regime is truly such a peace-loving dove, then perhaps it should consider withdrawing from the three UAE islands it still occupies, stop supporting the murderous Assad regime which has overseen the killing of 200 thousand people and stop backing Yemen’s Houthi militias which staged a coup against the legitimate government of President Hadi.
Infographic: Iran’s funding to terrorist groups all over the region.
Of course, this was a fair comment as the Saudi participation was perceived to be mostly business-oriented. The delegation – which consisted of a few ministers, government officials and prominent businessmen, as well as a number of princes and individuals coming in their personal capacity – wasn’t seen by many to reflect the size, prominence and change happening in the kingdom. Excuse me? How was Riyadh supposed to act when – on top of all the aggression mentioned above – the Iranian regime sat back and watched its thugs attack and set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran? Zarif went on to stress that this attack was officially condemned and that the perpetrators will be prosecuted. However, he – unsurprisingly – didn’t dwell much into how this attack was allowed to happen in the first place under a regime which otherwise wouldn’t allow a mosquito to freely move without permission! Zarif also dwelled on how Saudi Arabia’s defense expenditure is far greater than Iran’s – yet he failed to recognize that this is a natural result of Tehran meddling with the region left, right and center. At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia would also prefer to spend more of its money on development – however with Houthi missiles coming in from the south and Iran bragging from the north about becoming an empire and occupying Arab cities, what else could Riyadh have done? Naturally, not everyone in Davos bought the Iranian narrative, however almost everyone I met said one thing: “we wish the Saudis were here to be able to tell their side of the story.” Naturally, not everyone in Davos bought the Iranian narrative, however almost everyone I met said one thing: “we wish the Saudis were here.” Of course, this was a fair comment as the Saudi participation was indeed low key compared to size, prominence and change happening in the kingdom: a few ministers, government officials and prominent businessmen, as well as a number of princes and individuals coming in their personal capacity. However, I understand that behind closed doors FM Zarif was taken to task on his country’s shameful stance on Syria by a former senior Saudi official. Unfortunately, only a handful of people – and no media – saw that. Now, the kingdom is not without its faults and certainly not above criticism. However, until it is fairly represented and publicly present at such important global events, this will only mean that Iran can continue getting away with spinning the truth and Zarif’s politically incorrect fairy tales will prevail.

Price of Syrian refugee crisis increasing
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/January 23/16
Any refugee living on only $13 a month, as is the case for many Syrians in Lebanon, would want to immigrate to Europe, former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband said at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He added that the solution to the Syrian refugee crisis was not to increase aid to refugees, but to find a permanent solution to help them go back home. The price of this tragedy is greater than money – whole societies and political systems are involved. The enormous sums spent on security and care of Syrian refugees worldwide could have been saved if the international community had intervened against the Syrian regime in the last five bloody years . Unless massacres are stopped, millions of Syrians will keep looking for safe havens. They are escaping murder, hunger and cold. Lives are suspended in inhuman refugee camps. This will not be solved soon because some politicians have concocted a solution satisfying Iran and Russia in Vienna and Geneva.
International inaction
The enormous sums spent on security and care of Syrian refugees worldwide could have been saved if the international community had intervened against the Syrian regime in the last five bloody years. Every time we criticize the international community’s inaction, some think we are calling for Western troops in Syria, but our sole demand has been to let Syrians buy defensive weapons to counter fighter jets. The international community has rejected military intervention and the provision of such weapons. With such a weak stand, it is normal that the crisis expanded regionally and even into Europe, which is separated from Syria only by Turkey.Millions of Syrians are scattered across the region and beyond, and millions more displaced inside their country. The mishandling of the Syrian tragedy led to the rise of ISIS. There is currently no hope for a political solution despite all the talk of diplomacy.

New US Airport in Syria While ISIL Struggles to Pay the Mujahedeen-But Where Are the Syrians?
Middle East Briefing/MEB/January 24/16
Following intensive construction work in Rumailan old military airport in Hasakah province in the North East of Syria, including extending its runways, the airport is now ready to be turned into the first US military base on Syrian territories. The base, strategically located in the center on the ISIL stronghold triangle- Dair Al Zour, Raqqa and Mosul and surrounded by friendly Kurdish forces, is destined to be the center of the campaign to exterminate ISIL.
US Helicopters started already using the airport. Large quantities of equipment were downloaded there in the last few weeks and a strict security ring surrounded the location. Kurdish sources indicate that US military personnel will be stationed there.
Parallel to the preparations in Rumailan, Russian military forces have finished preparing Kamishli airport near Qamishli and not far from Rumailan. Kamishili airport was originally a civilian airport and it remained largely intact despite the civil war.
But ISIL is not standing idle.
While the group is well alerted to what is going on around its mainland, it is going through a difficult time internally. However, the script it follows in dealing with the delicate moment lacks any creativity.
In an internal meeting held last December, and according to what some activists picked in Raqqa, the group decided to start a dramatic military attack to regain momentum and to send a message to its supporters that it is still “advancing”. While this dramatic attack was expected for few weeks now, it was difficult to tell which spot will be chosen.
ISIL chose Dair Al Zour. But just prior to its sweeping attack on Assad forces there, it had to deal with its mounting internal problems.The pressing one was financial. In January, a US air strike hit a Mosul bank where most of ISIL cash assets were amassed. The hit, in addition to the destruction of some important components of its oil operations, was so painful to the organization’s treasury that the leadership had to issue a communique to all the “Mujahedeen”.
The communique, a copy of which was obtained by credible publications focusing on Syria, was copied and sent to the outside world by activists in Raqqa, was signed by “Bait Al Mal”, or the treasury department of ISIL. It announced the reduction of all members’ salaries and explained the decision by “the exceptional circumstance which the Islamic State is currently going through”. “The sums paid to the Mujahedeen well be reduced by half and it is not allowed to exclude any one, whatever his post, from this decision”, the communique said.
During the last few months, reports by merchants in Raqqa indicated that ISIL members started to buy less and even to borrow money from these merchants. It was rumored then that the hardship is exclusive to the Syrian members of the organization not to the foreigners. In other words, Syrian members were complaining that the burden of the hardship is not distributed evenly. This may explain the reference in the communique that the reduction of salaries is to be for all members without exceptions.
In its leadership meeting in December in Mosul, ISIL decided to move in an attempt to regain the momentum as it clearly read the writings on the wall. In a patience and gradual effort, the group succeeded in moving large numbers of 4×4’s, trucks and weapons to areas around regime forces in Dair Al Zour. A surprise attack started mid-January. Regime positions collapsed within hours and horrendous atrocities were committed as might be expected. Regime soldiers were slaughtered and over 400 civilians were kidnapped.
ISIS controls now portions of the town of Dair Al Zour and is progressing every day. Controlling this area is meant to be a psychological boost. However, this “expansion” of ISIL is truly out of context. Furthermore, it is doubtful if it will really leave the desired psychological impact, except perhaps among regime forces.While the loss of Dair Al Zour is important in a tactical sense to Assad forces, its overall strategic significance in the context of the preparations to defeat ISIL in East Syria will be minimized particularly in regard to the current US-Russian coordination with Kurdish forces and the so called Syrian Democratic Forces.Yet again, we are faced in this very context with the risk of separating the military track from the political one as was done during the surge of 2007 in Central Iraq. Military progress will only gain its full meaning if a political deal is reached. Otherwise, we will be talking about a new terrorist entity emerging somewhere sometime in the future and a start of the same old story all over again. This has to be avoided. And the way to avoid it is to shift the limelight to the diplomatic ring.
Why is this a risk? Progress on the military track usually causes a blinding effect that prevents seeing deeper than superficial “victory” and “mission accomplished”, hence neglect that victory should be based on a wider definition than merely breaking the foes’ military capabilities.
Yet, in this diplomatic ring we see now that the proposed transitional talks that would hopefully reach a political deal does not inspire much hope. Before addressing the choices in the fight against ISIL, even in the absence of a political horizon to end the civil war, it is worth a while to take a quick look at the obstacles that are facing the talks.
The main obstacle is Russia’s insistence to include groups in the “opposition” delegation that are considered too friendly to Assad and to exclude groups that are considered “terrorist” by Moscow’s standards.
Without going into details, the Riyadh conference which gathered major opposition groups has selected a delegation that reflects the mainstream of the armed opposition. While it seems reasonable to represent the unarmed opposition as well, that will depend mainly on their political stand on the future regime.
It is the objective of the talks which determines what kind of opposition to participate, not the opposite. Inasmuch as these talks target a solution which imposes a potentially successful cease fire and forms a joint force to fight ISIL or prevent its expansion, the armed opposition seems to be an indispensable participant. If the objective is to introduce some decorative changes to the Assad regime and call it a success, it makes sense to put the Assad friendly groups in the first raw.
It is particularly here that Moscow’s diplomacy errs. There will be no point in reaching a superficial deal, even if such a deal allows whatever international coalition to interfere in Syria by an invitation from the new decorative government. In Iraq, the US defeated Al Qaeda in full cooperation with Baghdad government and security forces to find out few years later that another Qaeda emerged in the form of ISIL.
A calculated shift has to be introduced to whatever new regime that emerges from talks. This shift should move the new regime to a point of regional and internal equilibrium which gives every side and take from it some.
The choices available in the fight against ISIL are clear, either to fight it without waiting for a political solution as is happening now, or to freeze the fight until a deal is reached. The effective path, between the two, is doubtlessly to fight ISIL immediately and with all possible vigor. Yet, if this choice is not coupled with an international and internal consensus on the objectives of the fight, it will be the known story all over again.
The US is involved in intense diplomatic contacts to reach such a consensus. The objective should be talks that bring a government which reflects a carefully calibrated shift compared to the current regime. It should also be accepted as a regime that has enough legitimacy and support to gather most armed groups in a common fight against terrorism and instability. This regime with all the armed groups included in the talks should work together not only to defeat ISIL, but also to provide the conditions to prevent its, or its clones’, re-emergence. In this sense, Syrian opposition delegation should be formed by Syria’s opposition, not by Sergei Levrov.

Can China Go from`Fifth Wheel’ to Major Player in Middle East?
Middle East Briefing/MEB/January 24/16
When President Xi Jinping met with President Barack Obama last September, during the Chinese leader’s state visit to Washington, one of the issues that occupied a significant amount of time in their private talks was the future of the Middle East. Both leaders agreed on the goal of achieving stability in the region, despite all of the emerging rifts. The term they used was “coexistence,” a term formerly associated with the US-Soviet Cold War era, when serious and fundamental disputes did not lead to war.
Up until now, Washington has viewed China as a “fifth wheel” when it comes to the Middle East. China has, up until now, stuck with a policy of “non-interference” in the internal affairs of sovereign countries in the region. In reality, China has sided with Russia and with Bashar Assad, in opposing the outside support for rebel forces attempting to remove Assad from power.
But that may be changing now. The fact that Xi Jinping has chosen to make his first foreign trip of 2016 to the Middle East is significant in its own right.
In recent weeks, China has been identified as a potential major donor to a reconstruction of postwar Syria. A December 2015 Wall Street Journal story talked about a Chinese “Marshall Plan” for the region, noting correctly that China’s One Belt, One Road program of developing advanced rail and sea trade links to Europe runs through the Middle East. China has more than $4 trillion in reserves, and has played a role recently in standing up a number of new development banks. On Jan. 17, the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) formally opened its doors for business. AIIB has 57 member countries, including all of the major Western European nations (the United States and Japan have so far boycotted the bank), as well as Saudi Arabia, most of the Gulf Cooperation Council members, and Iran. The BRICS New Development Bank (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has also opened its doors in Shanghai. Between the two banks alone, they have the potential to issue $1 trillion in development loans, largely directed at infrastructure projects across Eurasia.
China, however, was badly burned by their previous investments in Syria, which all took place prior to the outbreak of war in 2011. Those investments are now worthless. They will not make any serious investments in such a Marshall Plan, without confidence that the fighting has ended and regional stability is at hand. US Administration officials are looking hopefully at Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to three crucial Middle East countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt, which began Jan. 19. They see a Chinese intervention in the region as a serious opportunity to de-escalate the growing Saudi-Iranian conflict. If China can simultaneously deepen collaboration with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt, the danger of a sectarian crisis can be potentially reduced. A move towards regional stability can be the needed incentive for China to invest significantly into the region. To use President Xi Jinping’s own language, a successful Chinese role with these three pivotal states can be a “win-win” for all parties.
Xi Jinping, furthermore, will be arriving in Tehran at a unique moment. Although the Iranian economy is in shambles, and much of the $100 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets (plus an additional $1.4 billion resulting from the US-Iranian settlement of a long-standing dispute over frozen assets and interest payments due) will go to repaying state debt to private sector banks, Iran does have an estimated $54 billion to spend on vital imports.
One US source familiar with the Iranian economic fiasco expects that in the next 90 days, Iran will issue 10,000 letters of credit for purchase of $1 million or more. The Iranian commercial airlines are unsafe, and Iran has already agreed to purchase 100 new commercial aircraft from Airbus, a first tranche of a total of 600 new aircraft to be purchased in the near-term. China could get a significant piece of the new aircraft purchases by Iran.
Obama Administration officials are especially keen on the speech that Xi Jinping will give before the Arab League, during his visit to Egypt at the end of his visit. Just prior to the trip, the Chinese government issued a lengthy White Paper on relations with the Arab World, which placed great emphasis on the New Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road projects, which crisscross the Middle East en route to European markets.
On Jan. 18, the day before his arrival in Riyadh, President Xi Jinping published a signed article in the Saudi newspaper Alriyad, headlined “Be Good Partners for Common Development.” In the concluding paragraphs of the article, which cited centuries of Saudi-Chinese cooperation along the original Silk Road trade route, he proposed a “strategic partnership” between China and Saudi Arabia, elaborating: “Let us forge a partnership of expanding cooperation and solidarity. China will enhance cooperation with Saudi Arabia multilaterally to maintain regional peace and stability and promote common development. To advance regional connectivity and common development, China has launched the initiative of jointly building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (the Belt and Road Initiative). We hope and trust that Saudi Arabia, located at the west crossroads of the Belt and Road, will become an important participant of, contributor to and beneficiary of this initiative.”The key question, particularly on the minds of American policymakers is: Can Xi Jinping create a special role for China as the honest broker between Riyadh and Tehran, and thus emerge as a major new factor for regional stability? The coming weeks will affirm whether Xi Jinping has stepped up to meet that challenge of global leadership.

Ending Iran’s Sanctions: Impact on Tehran, Baghdad and Syria
Middle East Briefing/MEB/January 24/16
To be able to assess the impact of lifting Iran’s sanctions, it may be helpful to examine the relevant regional context on the implementation day.
Three particular areas deserve to be examined. One relates to the impact of lifting sanctions on the internal political rivalry inside Iran. The second and the third focus on this impact on the current situation on both Iraq and Syria.
* Iran:
Scrapping sanctions will give the moderates in Tehran a needed lift during the count down to the Presidential and general elections. The hardliners and the IRGC have always opposed the nuclear deal. What they fear most is that normalization of relation with the external world will create a momentum that targets not only their interests, but potentially their very existence.
Hardliners, who consider the IRGC their “political party”, accumulated a lot of economic muscles during the long years of isolation. They also expanded their regional role that fitted perfectly their sense of threat and their plan to protect the national security of “the revolution”. Their aggressive regional methods were not only a way of reflecting their religious fever but also a convenient road to grasping more power and political space in Iran.
But it was also an objectively needed mechanism of self-defense and an ideal policy to keep the political grip of the regime internally. “Victories” achieved in the Middle East were invaluable tools of propaganda as they represented to the public a picture of a regime that is moving forward somehow.
Usually, in similar situations, the perception of threat, real or imagined (and in this case of Iran it was real), creates the objective ground for the continuation of post-revolution totalitarianism and the expansion of the security states. This in turn elects centralized economic policies. We have this phenomena going through different phases in Iran until it reached, during the years of Ahmadinejad, a point where it obtained an independent life for itself. In other words, the quantitative shift during the years of the former President could be summarized roughly as a moment when the IRGC reached the point of relatively coherent independence from the political state.
This was mainly due to a very rapid expansion in economic control and the usefulness of the IRGC regional and global moves. In a way, the IRGC turned to be a kind of “state within the state”. In similar cases, that means a degree of political immunity protecting it against attempts, by the political state, to reduce its role or reform the sectors which host his interests.
In realizing that the nuclear deal will entail an overture to the external world in all fields, the IRGC was skeptical of the accord. It expected, correctly, that its economic grip will be relaxed as the need for all shadow trade activities, dictated by sanctions, will be reduced. It also expected that its aggressive security policies, externally and internally, would be challenged as there will be less objective need for these methods. And it expected that the overture towards the external and different world will dilute the “purity” of the fanatical revolutionary ideas which represent its ideological backbone.
But in this case we should not be optimist. The moment of shift in Iran is characterized by very particular features which belong uniquely to its case. The Iranian IRGC, and the hardliners in general, base themselves on a popular base that other political groupings in similar cases lacked. Furthermore, the ideology here is religion, or a version of it. This ideology relates to the general popular culture and has centuries old historical roots. With a chain of Mosques everywhere and favorable cultural base, the IRGC has a long way before we see it shrinking.
Furthermore, the reformists are not unified and they lack a well-organized influential political force which enjoys the same wide presence in all communities. The nuclear deal will lead to further crystallization and intensification of the conflict between different views about the future of Iran. One camp will call for normalizing the role of Iran to adapt to its overture to the world, hence end the perpetual economic hardship, while the other will call for preserving the “purity” of the revolutionary principles and the status quo. In similar cases the first camp has a better chance to win the day. But Iran maybe a little different.
The problem in Iran’s case is that the reformist camp does not possess strong tools to make full use of the objective shift that has occurred with ending Iran’s isolation, even when it has sufficient base particularly among the urban middle class. This is coupled with the expected defensive reaction of the IRGC. Using its strong accumulated power base, the IRGC and hardliners read the situation, with its risks to them, correctly.
The nature of the moment points out that what we should expect is an intensification of the internal Iranian power struggle. In very general terms, the fight usually ends with a victory to the moderates, mainly due to objective and economic reasons. But the question is: How long will that take in the case of Iran? And at what price to its internal stability?
Ayatollah Khamenei is sick and he has strong hardline views as well. To which extent would he be able to play the role of a statesman not a perpetual revolutionary?
Though the economic impact of lifting the sanctions would be limited in the long run as oil prices are not expected to recover anytime soon, the released funds would be theoretically helpful to the reformists. One factor seems evident right now, however. The popularity of the reformists has skyrocketed after scrapping the international sanctions. This factor will playout largely in the next elections due next month, if the reformists are allowed to run, particularly that the time left before the elections is too short to allow public disappointment in regard to the unrealistically positive expectations of the Iranian voters. The Parliament will elect the Assembly of experts which will certainly re-elect Khamenei, unless the Supreme Leader abdicates for health reasons.
Assuming that all things will go as planned, and Khamenei will not prevent most reformists from running,, the reformists may achieve considerable gains in the elections. Somehow, all depends upon a strategic decision taken from Khamenei and some other powerful figures in Tehran to let them win a decisive majority. If it is deemed necessary to implement a gradual shift in the strategic direction of the state, Khamenei, who happens to be the most powerful political figure of all in Iran, will guarantee a smooth shift performed in an organized fashion.
But knowing the leader’s inertia and system of thoughts, this is not going to happen, if it does at all, in any rapid manner. Any abrupt shift in the direction of the country led by the reformists after their assumed expected gains in the next elections will cause a backlash from the hardliners in a moment when they still enjoy a very powerful role in the structure of the state and the economy. The objective trends will take time to erode their base particularly because of the absence of an equally powerful opponent (in terms of political organization not unorganized “popularity”).
The key in this delicate moment in Iran’s political history is how prudently the country will be led in the direction of the wind all the while avoiding any big mistakes that may put it again against this direction. For if the hardliners succeed in overruling the reformists, based on big mistakes or rushing things by the reformists, we will be heading to a period of protracted instability inside Iran and in the Middle East. It will be difficult for the hardliners to quell the aspirations of the public in a moment when this public believes they soon will be achieved.
* Iraq:
Recent incidents in Diyala were indicative of how ISIL may exploit the explosive charge of sectarianism to derail any attempt to improve the general atmosphere in Iraq. Several Sunni Mosques were set on fire by fanatic Shia members of the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF). The attack came after suicide attacks by some ISIL members.
As usual, we will find either of the two groups, ISIL and PMF “completing” the half circle drawn by the other. But the real objective of the attacks against the Mosques was to repel the original Sunni inhabitants from going back to their homes. The preferred game of both ISIL and PMF is sectarian cleansing. Additional Sunnis left Meqdadiah in Diyalah after their Mosques were burned.
While Qassem Suleimani is rumored to be clinically dead in Tehran after targeting him last November near Aleppo in Syria, the PMF seems to have been losing its tactical edge. It is up to Tehran to rein in the PMF, accept the new Abadi plan to restructure its leadership structure and enable him to implement this plan.
Baghdad officials debated some new ideas about including most of the militias in the armed forces parallel to also absorbing the Sunni tribal forces into the national armed forces. The idea emerged as an alternative to the National Guard which was rejected by the extremist Shia political groups for fear of creating an independent Sunni force.
While the project of building the National Guard should not be announced dead yet, the alternative proposal must be explored further and developed along acceptable lines. But the crux of the problem in Iraq remains in Iran taking a strategic decision to allow a real national unity government and to control the seemingly uncontrollable PMF. This will not happen without instructions from Khamenei to the Quds Forces to change its objectives in Iraq and to focus only on protecting the South of Iraq.
Left to its own device, the IRGC Quds Force and its Iraqi allies will simply continue blocking any national solution in Iraq. The head of the IRGC, General Mohamed Ali Jafari, bragged January 14 about the Corps presence in the neighboring countries. “We have 200 thousand men ready in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan. But we still have to attract more, particularly young people. We should focus on training the third generation of the guards of Velayat-e Faqih (the Iranian political system)”. The statement was released by Mehr news agency owned by the government.
The one single most important factor to end Iraq’s political crisis is the position of Iran. As sanctions were lifted just few days ago, it is not clear yet if Tehran will content itself with the South in return for guarantees related to Central Iraq and a non-aggression assurances with the Sunni tribes and their regional backers.
* Syria:
The situation in Dair Al Zour is indeed worrying. ISIL achieved some major progress there and we have seen once more this cult of death in one of its most shocking moments. Yet, the macro-trends of the crisis remain the same. It is impossible to reach a solution that keeps Assad on top of the future regime. The main organizing principle should be a Syria free of all foreign presence and all terrorist organizations.
A regionally neutral Syria will have two decades or more to rebuild the destroyed country and regain its internal cohesion. These objectives would be impossible to achieve while terrorists are acting freely in the country. We share the assessment that if a reasonable solution is reached in Syria, it will take a relatively short period, counted in years not in months, to defeat ISIL.
This may be a favorable moment to push forward a comprehensive plan to pacify the Middle East. We see the ball now in Iran’s playground. The direction it will kick it will define the nature of the coming phase in the regional conflicts. In the case of Syria, for example, a regional deal coupled with international agreement on a road map would play a decisive role in reaching a deal for a future Syria free of the dictatorship of Assad, the terrorists, and all armed foreigners unless deployed by the UN with the full approval of Syrians. It is a moment to use the nuclear deal to achieve what was supposed to be achieved before signing it. But it is not too late yet.
Washington Recalibrates anti-ISIL War: Plans Going Forward
Middle East Briefing/MEB/January 24/16
The Pentagon has revised its war plans against the Islamic State for 2016, based on a cold assessment of the state of combat, and lessons learned from the relative failure of the 2015 “Iraq First” strategy. The shift, which has been downplayed by the Obama White House, out of fear of conveying any admission of failure, has been quietly confirmed by Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and by the new US commander for Iraq and Syria, Gen. Sean MacFarland.
The appointment of MacFarland, a seasoned conventional warfare veteran, in October 2015 as the first US flag officer in charge of both the Iraq and Syria military campaigns, speaks volumes about the shift towards more conventional ground combat operations versus Islamic State strongholds. Because of political complications in Baghdad, including the strong influence of Iran on the Abadi government, there are absolute limits on the size of the US military force that will be allowed in Iraq. Recent US offers to expand the number of American combat advisors, attached to Iraqi Army fighting units, and to provide close air support helicopters, have been rejected. Gen. MacFarland made clear that such added American support will be rushed in at the first point that Baghdad requests it.
In a speech to the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Kentucky on Jan. 13, Defense Secretary Carter announced that 1,600 additional US trainers from the Division will be arriving in Iraq, boosting the total American military “footprint” to over 5,000 troops by the spring. He also made clear that the combined ground combat operations will be targeted in 2016 against Mosul and Raqqa, and that the US will be taking a back seat to Iraqi Army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces, who will be working to conduct coordinated military campaigns, targeting Mosul from the north, south and east.
One key to the more conventional military campaign is the severing of ISIL supply lines between Mosul and Raqqa, and re-establishing the traditional Syria-Iraq borders. Since November, Iraqi Peshmerga forces, with close US air support and with American embedded military advisers, have retaken Sinjar, a vital transit point between the two ISIL strongholds.
In late December, US Defense Secretary Carter was in Irbil, meeting with Kurdish leaders. He pledged to provide weapons and other military gear and vehicles to equip two combat brigades, totaling 4,400 Kurdish troops.
One key element of the new strategy is the acceleration of the decapitation operations, led by US Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) teams, which have been inserted on the ground in both Iraq and Syria. Those JSOC teams are now on the ground, operating, and this has already resulted in a series of successful targeted killings of “indispensable” ISIL figures (see last week’s MEB for details), even before the deployment was completed. In preparation for a future assault on Mosul, the JSOC teams have also made contact with Sunni Arab tribal leaders in the area.
While the appointment of Gen. MacFarland to oversee all US military operations in Iraq and Syria is the clearest indication of greater attention to conventional combat operations, the newly named Central Command head, Gen. Joseph Votel, also underscores the special role assigned to JSOC. Up until his appointment on Jan. 15, 2016 as the new Centcom commander, Gen. Votel was head of the Special Operations Command. He previously commanded JSOC. His expected replacement at Special Operations Command, Lt. Gen. Raymond Thomas III, is the current JSOC commander.
At the same time that the Pentagon has recalibrated the war plans for Iraq and Syria for 2016, the Obama Administration has concluded that the war against the Islamic State must be broadened to target ISIL’s new pockets of operations globally.
A new analysis by the US Intelligence Community, provoked by the Paris and San Bernardino terrorist attacks, attributed to ISIL, has warned about the spread of ISIL activities in Southeast Asia and North Africa. Local ISIL cells have emerged in Indonesia, which are believed responsible for recent suicide bombings in Jakarta. While these operations do not necessarily involve redeployment of seasoned Islamic State fighters from Iraq or Syria, they reflect local, indigenous jihadist cells formally affiliating with ISIL. The USIC study identified 20 countries where such expansion of ISIL operations has been identified.
In some cases, these local, home-grown jihadist cells have been “inspired” by the Islamic State, but have no formal ties to the ISIL leadership. This, the report warned, poses a special challenge, because normal communication intercepts will not always detect local ISIL operations, while they are in the planning phase.
Among the geographic areas highlighted in the study are Libya, Kashmir and Afghanistan. Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States are also identified as vulnerable, due to large Muslim populations (the Obama White House has sought to keep this study under wraps, for fear of fueling anti-Muslim rhetoric from Republican presidential candidates).
Secretary of Defense Carter is in Paris this week, discussing these intelligence warnings and revised military plans with key allies France, Britain, Australia, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. One priority topic of discussion is the Islamic State expansion into parts of Libya, centered in the Sirte area. Carter will be sounding out the allies on a possible joint military expeditionary force, to be deployed into Libya, at the invitation of the newly established unity government. That force of more than 7,000 US and European troops would be commanded by Italy, and would involve special deployments of British Special Air Services (SAS) teams.