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Bible Quotations For Today
What will it profit them if they gain the whole world but forfeit their life
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 16/24-28: "Then Jesus told his disciples, ‘If any want to become my followers, let them deny themselves and take up their cross and follow me. For those who want to save their life will lose it, and those who lose their life for my sake will find it. For what will it profit them if they gain the whole world but forfeit their life? Or what will they give in return for their life? ‘For the Son of Man is to come with his angels in the glory of his Father, and then he will repay everyone for what has been done. Truly I tell you, there are some standing here who will not taste death before they see the Son of Man coming in his kingdom."

Do not be ashamed, then, of the testimony about our Lord or of me his prisoner, but join with me in suffering for the gospel
Second Letter to Timothy 01/01-11: "Paul, an apostle of Christ Jesus by the will of God, for the sake of the promise of life that is in Christ Jesus, To Timothy, my beloved child: Grace, mercy, and peace from God the Father and Christ Jesus our Lord. I am grateful to God whom I worship with a clear conscience, as my ancestors did when I remember you constantly in my prayers night and day. Recalling your tears, I long to see you so that I may be filled with joy. I am reminded of your sincere faith, a faith that lived first in your grandmother Lois and your mother Eunice and now, I am sure, lives in you. For this reason I remind you to rekindle the gift of God that is within you through the laying on of my hands; for God did not give us a spirit of cowardice, but rather a spirit of power and of love and of self-discipline. Do not be ashamed, then, of the testimony about our Lord or of me his prisoner, but join with me in suffering for the gospel, relying on the power of God, who saved us and called us with a holy calling, not according to our works but according to his own purpose and grace. This grace was given to us in Christ Jesus before the ages began, but it has now been revealed through the appearing of our Saviour Christ Jesus, who abolished death and brought life and immortality to light through the gospel. For this gospel I was appointed a herald and an apostle and a teacher,"

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 17-18.16.htm
Lebanese Echoes of Saudi Iranian Tension/MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16
Educating Europe’s refugees as important as feeding them/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
How D&G is capitalizing on the Muslim faith/Yara al-Wazir/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
Egypt’s new parliament and the clash of mythologies/Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
Iran’s dreams come true, but will promises be kept/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
The Impact of Saudi-Iran Escalation on Russia’s Syrian Intervention/MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16
Congress Ready to Battle Obama over Iran Sanctions/MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16
JSOC “Decapitation” Program Hits ISIL Command/MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january 17-18.16.htm
Berri's Aide Hits Back after Yaaqoub's Brother Launches Accusations
Geagea Encourages Rifi to Refer Samaha Case to Judicial Council
Report: Kataeb-Suleiman Ministers Demand Appointing One Of Two Christians in Military Council
Samaha Tells Interrogators about 'Explosives Trip' in Newly Leaked Video
Bassil Says Legislative Polls Can be Held as FPM Stages 'Proportional' Party Vote
Suleiman Slams Reports that he Demanded Naming Military Council Member
Report: Paris to Discuss Presidential Hurdle with Iran
Kuwaiti Abducted from His Farm in Qab Elias
Family of Lebanese Abducted in Libya Blocks Road in Mhammara
Lebanese Echoes of Saudi Iranian Tension

Berri's Aide Hits Back after Yaaqoub's Brother Launches Accusations
Naharnet/January 17/16/A brother of jailed ex-MP Hassan Yaaqoub launched a series of accusations Sunday against Speaker Nabih Berri's AMAL Movement in connection with the former MP's detention by Lebanese authorities. “The case is political par excellence and his judicial file is totally empty,” Yaaqoub's brother Ali said at a press conference. “Some parties are seeking to accuse Syria of being behind Hassan Yaaqoub's arrest and this is incorrect,” he added. Accusing certain parties of “seeking to maintain the equation of keeping Hannibal Gadhafi in detention to keep our son jailed,” Ali Yaaqoub slammed what he called “the Shiite silence over this case.”He also claimed that the AMAL Movement is “contacting its friends and individuals close to our family to ask them not to show solidarity with us.”AMAL is “tapping the family's phone lines in a breach of personal privacy,” Yaaqoub charged. He also alleged that Hannibal Gadhafi's lawyer Bushra al-Khalil had called Berri's chief of guards Brig. Gen. Youssef Dimashq on January 4. “Only minutes later, (Berri's aide) Ahmed Baalbaki called her, after which she headed to attend a meeting at the Ain al-Tineh Palace,” Yaaqoub added. “We don't know who she met there, but supposing she met with Baalbaki, what justifies this communication with the rival's lawyer?” he went on to say. “If Berri has knowledge of these things that's a disaster, and if he doesn't know it's a bigger disaster,” Yaaqoub said. But Baalbaki issued a statement hours later denying Yaaqoub's claims and clarifying AMAL's role in the case. “Brig. Gen. Youssef Dimashq did not receive any phone call from the lawyer Bushra al-Khalil and I have not met with the aforementioned lawyer or received any phone call from her,” Baalbaki stressed. “The only phone call we have received in this case was during the abduction of Hannibal Gadhafi when they called us to exchange him for money,” he clarified. “We rejected the proposal because at that point we became sure that the kidnap was for money and not for the sake of the cause,” Baalbaki added. Hannibal Gadhafi was kidnapped in a Syrian area near the Lebanese border on December 11 before being smuggled into Lebanon's Bekaa region. He was handed over hours later to Lebanese security forces. Lebanese authorities have charged Hannibal with withholding information about the disappearance of revered Shiite cleric and founder of the AMAL Movement Moussa al-Sadr, who vanished in Libya in 1978 along with two companions. A security source told AFP that investigators discovered that ex-MP Yaaqoub had orchestrated an elaborate scheme to seize Gadhafi from Syria and bring him to Lebanon. Yaaqoub was arrested after several days on charges of involvement in Hannibal's abduction. The ex-MP is the son of Sheikh Mohammed Yaaqoub – one of the two companions who disappeared with al-Sadr in Libya in 1978. Al-Sadr's Libya visit was paid upon the invitation of then Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi – Hannibal's father. The three were seen lastly on August 31. They were never heard from again. The Lebanese judiciary had indicted Moammar Gadhafi in 2008 over al-Sadr's disappearance, although Libya had consistently denied responsibility, claiming that the imam and his companions had left Libya for Italy.

Geagea Encourages Rifi to Refer Samaha Case to Judicial Council
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/16/Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea urged Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi to carry on with a request to refer the trail of ex-Minister Michel Samaha to the judicial council in the wake of his release from jail. “I urge the Justice Minister to go ahead with the draft project to refer the case of Samaha to the judicial council,” said Geagea via twitter on Sunday. “The Premier must put the draft forward for discussion in the first cabinet session for approval,” he added. On Saturday, media reports said that Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi will make a request before cabinet to refer the trial of former Minister Michel Samaha to the judicial council in wake of his release from jail despite the damning evidence against him in his involvement in bombing plots in Lebanon. He will also submit to cabinet a draft-law that he prepared to eliminate extraordinary trials and instead call for the establishment of “judicial powers” concerned with “significant and terrorist” crimes. Rifi had handed head of the Mustaqbal bloc MP Fouad Saniora a copy of a draft-law that calls for the elimination of the military tribunal,. Samaha was released from jail on Thursday after being arrested in 2012 after he was caught red-handed smuggling explosives from Syria for the purpose of carrying out bombings and assassinations in Lebanon. He was sentenced to four-and-a-half years in jail. The release sparked a wave of anger in Lebanon against the military court, most notably among the March 14 alliance. Demonstrators on Friday blocked a number of roads in Beirut in protest against the release, while the March 14 youth groups staged a rally in front of Samaha's residence in Ashrafieh.

Report: Kataeb-Suleiman Ministers Demand Appointing One Of Two Christians in Military Council
Naharnet/January 17/16/Ministers of the Kataeb party and former President Michel Suleiman refuse to give the privilege of naming the two Christian figures for the appointment of military council to MP Michel Aoun, al-Mustaqbal daily reported on Sunday. “Two parties in the cabinet, the Kataeb and ministers of President Michel Suleiman, refuse that MP Aoun names the Christian members for the military council appointments. They want to suggest one of the candidates leaving naming the other to Aoun,” ministerial sources told the daily on condition of anonymity. Three military council posts, reserved for a Shiite, a Greek Orthodox and a Catholic, have been vacant for the past two years. The daily added that Speaker Nabih Berri has made some progress in the divisive issue and that “he went beyond meeting the demand of Change and Reform chief Aoun in naming the two christian figures as a condition to return his ministers to the government meetings by also agreeing that Aoun designates the Shiite candidate as well.”In that regard, the daily added that the Speaker had contacted Army Commander Jean Qahwaji and asked him “for cooperation” regarding Aoun's demands in order to facilitate the cabinet's work. However, Qahwaji made it clear that “no one had suggested names of candidates, not to me nor to the Minister of Defense (Samir Moqbel). I have not suggested any names as well.”Media reports on Saturday said that contacts were held between Berri, Moqbel, and Qahwaji that focused on the appointment of three generals in the military council. The success of the meetings would ensure that quorum is met at the next cabinet session. The Free Patriotic Movement and its ally Hizbullah had boycotted a government meeting on Thursday due to the dispute over the military appointments. Despite their boycott and the absence of the Marada Movement minister, the cabinet convened and approved several non-controversial decrees. The FPM is demanding the appointment of officers to fill the posts. Its conditions have paralyzed the government, which has so far only met three times since September last year.

Samaha Tells Interrogators about 'Explosives Trip' in Newly Leaked Video
Naharnet/January 18/16/
https://youtu.be/FQ8h-Rs2U7E
Lebanese TV networks on Sunday aired a video showing ex-minister Michel Samaha giving his testimony to interrogators in the wake of his 2012 arrest over a plot to stage bombings and assassinations in Lebanon in collaboration with a senior Syrian security official. The video comes three days after Samaha was released from jail on bail under a controversial Military Court ruling. “I went Monday to Damascus and I met with Adnan and he told me that they (the explosives) would be ready the next day,” Samaha tells the interrogators in the video. He then reveals that he went back to the Syrian capital a few days later, accompanied by his personal driver Fares Barakat who drove another car. Syrian security agent Adnan then took the car and filled it with the explosives and other bomb-making material, Samaha told the interrogators. Several videos had emerged in the past, showing Samaha discussing the attacks plot with Milad Kfoury, who has been described as a Lebanese security services informer. Samaha, who was information minister from 1992 to 1995, was released in exchange for a bail payment of 150 million Lebanese pounds. Under his bail conditions, he was barred from leaving the country for at least one year, speaking to the press or using social media.The ex-minister was arrested in August 2012 and charged with attempting to carry out "terrorist acts" over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. Samaha was sentenced in May 2015 to four-and-half years in prison, but in June Lebanon's Cassation Court nullified the verdict and ordered a retrial. Samaha, a Christian politician and former adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. But he argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by Kfoury. The ex-minister's controversial release on Thursday has sparked road-blocking protests across Lebanon and dismay among the ranks of the March 14 coalition. Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri deemed the release a “shame and scandal,” vowing that he will not remain silent over the issue.

Bassil Says Legislative Polls Can be Held as FPM Stages 'Proportional' Party Vote
Naharnet/January 18/16/Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil stressed Sunday that “nothing justifies postponing the parliamentary polls,” as the FPM held unprecedented internal elections based on the “proportional representation” system. Bassil voiced his remarks during an inspection tour that saw him visit Akkar, Baalbek-Hermel, Jezzine, Jbeil, Keserwan, Beirut and Aley. The FPM's polls were aimed at electing regional committees. “This vote is important because it is a conclusive evidence that Lebanon can organize elections,” Bassil said, vowing that the FPM will not tolerate another extension of the parliament's term. “When the cabinet tackles the issue of the municipal polls, we will emphasize the need to hold (parliamentary) by-elections in Jezzine” to fill the seat that was left vacant after the death of MP Michel Helou of the FPM, Bassil added. “Today we have given the example that nothing prevents holding these polls and implementing the proportional representation system, because our people are educated and democratic enough to be able to take part in such polls,” the FPM chief went on to say. Underlining that “nothing justifies postponing the parliamentary polls,” Bassil noted that “extension is aimed at evading the FPM's strength” and that “the excuse for dodging proportional representation has been toppled.” Bassil had won the FPM's presidency uncontested in August 2015, succeeding his father-in-law MP Michel Aoun. At the time, he described the so-called “consensus” that contributed to his victory as a “form of democracy” aimed at keeping the FPM “strong.”

Suleiman Slams Reports that he Demanded Naming Military Council Member
Naharnet/January 17/16/Former President Michel Suleiman slammed media reports alleging that his ministerial bloc and that of the Kataeb party had demanded appointing one of the two Christian members in the military council in return for accepting the appointment of the second by the Change and Reform bloc head MP Michel Aoun. “We have not and will not demand naming one of the members as a condition to accept the nomination of the other. We continue to call for respecting the mechanism and standards and to distance the military institution from conflicts,” said Suleiman in a tweet. “Members of the military council are usually named based on a proposal of the Minister of National Defense on the basis of articles 23, 24 and 26 of the defense act and not based on quotas,” added Suleiman. Media reports said on Sunday that ministers of the Kataeb party and Suleiman refuse to give the privilege to MP Michel Aoun to name the two Christian figures who will fill the vacant posts at the military council. Kataeb and Suleiman demand that they name one of the two figures as a condition to accept the other, according to reports. Three military council posts, reserved for a Shiite, a Greek Orthodox and a Catholic, have been vacant for the past two years.

Report: Paris to Discuss Presidential Hurdle with Iran
Naharnet/January 17/16/French sources following up closely on the Lebanese presidential file said that France will likely discuss the thorny issue with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during his visit to the French capital slated for January 28, the pan-Arab al-Hayat daily reported on Sunday. “Paris will raise the subject of the Lebanese presidency with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during his visit to France in January, without showing that it is posing a requirement on Iran so that the Iranian side does not raise the price,” the daily said quoting French sources. Paris will state to Iran that “the current Lebanese candidates for the top state post are close friends to Iran's allies and it is therefore better not to be dragged behind the divisions among Christians, which the Iranian side is constantly doing,” according to the daily. “France will tell the Iranian side that the candidate with the majority of votes will win the presidential elections when the parliament holds a session. In all cases , the winner is a friend of the Iranian side, so what is the need for obstruction?” they noted. Lebanon has been without a president since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014. Conflicts among the rival March 8 and March 14 camps have thwarted attempts aiming at electing a successor. Change and Reform MP Michel Aoun of the March 8 and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea of the March 14 are both candidates for the presidency. Furthermore, an initiative by Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri suggested the nomination of Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency. The new nomination of Franjieh, of the March 8, has been met with reservations from the Kataeb Party, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces. Reports said lately that LF chief Samir Geaega is willing to nominate Aoun if al-Mustabqal insists on Franjieh's nomination.

Kuwaiti Abducted from His Farm in Qab Elias
Naharnet/January 17/16/A Kuwaiti man was kidnapped Sunday from his farm in the Bekaa town of Qab Elias, Lebanon's National News Agency reported. “Three unknown assailants abducted Kuwaiti national Mohsen Barrak al-Majed from his farm in Qab Elias,” NNA said. “Once he arrived at his ranch in Qab Elias to inspect it, three unknown individuals tied him up as well as the farm's Syrian janitor and kept them locked up for three hours,” the agency said. “They later shot the janitor in the leg before fleeing the place with the kidnapped Kuwaiti,” it added. Red Cross medics transferred the janitor to hospital as security forces launched a probe into the incident, NNA said.

Family of Lebanese Abducted in Libya Blocks Road in Mhammara
Naharnet/January 17/16/The family of two Lebanese young men abducted in Libya on Sunday staged a sit-in in the northern town of Mhammara during which the international highway was briefly blocked. “Relatives of the two young men Mohammed and Khaled Nazha staged a symbolic sit-in during which they briefly blocked the international Minieh-Abdeh highway in the town of Mhammara,” state-run National News Agency reported. “We have not witnessed any serious stance from the Lebanese foreign ministry over this humanitarian case and it has instead ridiculed and downplayed the issue, reducing it to a financial dispute, although the captors have repeatedly announced in video recordings that the kidnap is aimed at swapping them for Hannibal Gadhafi,” the family said in a statement. It was referring to two Internet videos in which the kidnappers demand the release of Gadhafi from Lebanese prisons in return for the Nazha brothers' freedom. Lebanon's foreign ministry dismissed the claims on Wednesday, noting that the kidnap is not related to Gadhafi's arrest in Lebanon but rather to a “financial dispute.”The two men “were abducted in Benghazi around a month ago over a financial dispute between them and their partners in the carpentry business,” the ministry quoted Lebanon's ambassador to Libya Mohammed Skaineh as saying. The incident “has nothing to do with” Hannibal's case “seeing as the kidnap occurred prior to his arrest,” the ministry added in its statement. But the family stressed on Sunday that the ministry “has a duty to protect Lebanese expats abroad.” It also urged Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi to “expedite Gadhafi's case in order to reach a humanitarian solution to this issue.”A video featuring still pictures of the two men and the voice of an unknown man had surfaced Wednesday on Facebook and YouTube. The video shows the two men holding banners carrying their names, ages and Lebanese addresses. The banners also carried an appeal to Prime Minister Tammam Salam saying the abductees' fate is now linked to that of Hannibal Gadhafi. “Release him in return for our freedom,” says the appeal. “This is a response to the unethical operation that was carried out by Lebanese elements who abducted Captain Hannibal Moammar Gadhafi,” says a man identifying himself as a member of the so-called special missions unit of the Martyr Mutassem Billah Moammar Gadhafi Brigade. Hannibal Gadhafi was kidnapped in a Syrian area near the Lebanese border on December 11 before being smuggled into Lebanon's Bekaa region. He was handed over hours later to Lebanese security forces. Lebanese authorities have charged Hannibal with withholding information about the disappearance of revered Shiite cleric and founder of the AMAL Movement Moussa al-Sadr, who vanished in Libya in 1978 along with two companions. A security source told AFP that investigators discovered that ex-MP Hassan Yaaqoub had orchestrated an elaborate scheme to seize Gadhafi from Syria and bring him to Lebanon. Yaaqoub was arrested after several days on charges of involvement in Hannibal's abduction. Yaaqoub is the son of Sheikh Mohammed Yaaqoub – one of the two companions who disappeared with al-Sadr in Libya in 1978. Al-Sadr's Libya visit was paid upon the invitation of then Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi – Hannibal's father. The three were seen lastly on August 31, 1978. They were never heard from again. The Lebanese judiciary had indicted Moammar Gadhafi in 2008 over al-Sadr's disappearance, although Libya had consistently denied responsibility, claiming that the imam and his companions had left Libya for Italy.

Lebanese Echoes of Saudi Iranian Tension
MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16
The political deadlock in Lebanon continues to prevent any governmental outcome. On 21st December 2015 the cabinet met in a rare session for the first time in three months to pass a law that permits garbage export thus solving a long waste crisis. The parliament held a single legislative session in 2015 and none to oversee the government’s work. The presidential elections have been postponed 34 times due to the lack of political compromise.
With Lebanese political factions tied to regional powers, regional vulnerability is a major characteristic of the domestic political situation in Lebanon, and the impact of the latest Saudi Iranian conflict will certainly aggravate the dead-lock.
By the end of November 2015, surprising reports surfaced mentioning that Slieman Frangieh will be nominated for the presidency. What was more surprising was that former Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, the main Saudi ally and a leading component of the March 14 coalition, quickly endorsed Frangieh.
Initially, the pro Syria March 8 coalition, in which Hizbullah is believed to be the decision maker, nominated the head of “Change and Reform” bloc Gen. Michel Aoun, who enjoys wide Christian support, while pro Saudi March 14 chose Samir Geagea head of the Lebanese Forces as their candidate.
Therefore, Hariri’s unannounced initiative reshuffled the whole scene. Geagea has shown clear dismay at Hariri’s choice and is said to be preparing for future political steps in response, which may include supporting Aoun, his longtime Christian rival.
But is Aoun really Hezbollah’s main choice? The reason for the question is that it was slowly emerging that Hezbollah is not opposed to Frangeih and that Frangieh is in good terms with the Syrian regime and the so called “axis of resistance”. In other words, Frangieh looked to be the right compromise that ends the “Presidential crisis” in Lebanon. But that was before the recent escalation between the Saudis and the Iranians.
For 34 electoral sessions Hezbollah’s bloc, “Resistance Loyalty”, as well as Aoun’s have not attended denying the 66 percent obligatory vote. Frangieh, the grandson of late Lebanese President Sleiman Frangieh is the least influential figure among the other candidates nationwide, but he enjoys an inherited wide popularity In the Northern Christian district of Zgharta.
Optimists believe the prospects of completing the presidential elections have dropped dramatically after the Saudi Iranian escalation. This came after strong signs that there is a deal, presented in Frangieh, concerning the next President of Lebanon. A more rational look at the current situation suggests that this file is frozen until further regional developments occur.
Sources from Hariri’s “Future Movement” bloc told “Middle East Briefing” (MFB) the Iranians have no interest in ending the presidential vacuum now, and Hezbollah bets that time is in their favor and that gradually it will be able to impose its rules. For some unknown reason, Hezbollah believes that the situation in Syria will turn in its favor, and all what it has do now is to stall until that happens.
Hezbollah’s deputy Secretary General, Naim Qassim, said recently that he still looks at establishing an Islamic state in Lebanon as a part of his role as an Islamist. This statement echoed badly on the political theater. “Future” sources considered this rhetoric “not helpful”, and stressed that Hezbollah has never changed its ideas of building an Islamic State, similar to that of Iran, in Lebanon.
Security experts in Lebanon also expressed fears of possible dangers that may occur if the escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran continues. On May 7th and 8th 2008, Hezbollah carried out a military operation against “Future Movement” offices and media outlets. “We are afraid political assassinations may appear again. Whenever the party finds that regional temperature is increasing we hear the high rage speeches and assassinations occur again,” a Lebanese analyst said.
The by-proxy Saudi Iranian conflict has witnessed a war of words between Hezbollah and the pro-Saudi Future Block. Mohamad Raad, chief of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, has waged recently a blistering attack on Saad Hariri without naming him, saying “those who are suffering from bankruptcy in their exile must not find a place to return Lebanon in order to rob the country once again.”
However, there is a considerable number of Lebanese experts who expect things to remain under control security wise. Yet, none of them could exclude the possibility of a unexpected spark that leads to sudden deterioration so long as the atmosphere remains charged. Politically the country has nothing more to lose since the cabinet and the Parliament are inactive. But the main sphere of deterioration would be the country’s security.
On different occasions, Lebanon was able to avoid the negative impacts of previous tensions between the two regional foes. When Saudi Arabia launched operation “Decisive Storm” in Yemen Hezbollah attacked the Saudi leadership harshly and that also appeared after the Mina stampede during the 2015 Hajj season. When the Lebanese prime-minister, Tammam Salam, decided to join the Saudi-led 34-nation Islamic alliance against terrorism, Hezbollah also had a firm stand in opposition. Qassem attacked Salam saying “Lebanon will not join the Islamic Alliance announced by the hypocrite Saudi that is involved in terrorism”. However, Lebanon officially, albeit symbolically, joined the Coalition.

Canada extends condolences following deaths of Canadians in Ouagadougou
January 16, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Marie-Claude Bibeau, Minister of International Development and La Francophonie, today issued the following statement concerning the deaths of more than 20 civilians, including six Canadians, in yesterday’s terrorist attack in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso:
“On behalf of the Government of Canada, we extend our deepest condolences to the family and friends of those killed in yesterday’s attack in Ouagadougou, among them Canadian aid workers and volunteers, and wish a speedy recovery to those injured.
“Canada condemns in the strongest terms any act that threatens the safety of civilians, including those who strive to improve the lives of vulnerable people around the world. Working in challenging and dangerous situations, their efforts to create lasting ties between peoples while building a more just and peaceful world will never cease.
“We stand with Burkina Faso and its people at this difficult time.
“This attack is yet again another reminder of the danger terrorism poses around the world and the need to work with partners to deal with global threats.
“Canadian officials are currently working with local authorities and are providing consular services to the families of Canadians affected.”
Canadian citizens in Burkina Faso requiring emergency consular assistance should contact the Canadian embassy in Ouagadougou at +226 25 49 08 00 or call the Global Affairs Canada 24/7 Emergency Watch and Response Centre collect at +1 613 996 8885. An email can also be sent to sos@international.gc.ca.

Canada welcomes announcement of ‘Implementation Day’ of Iran nuclear deal as good news
January 17, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today welcomed the announcement yesterday that Iran has verifiably taken the measures necessary under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for “Implementation Day.”
Implementation Day represents a key milestone for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was agreed to by Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) plus Germany (the P5+1).
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action will help ensure that Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon and that its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes. It will also reduce the risk of a destabilizing nuclear arms race in the region.
Iran has fulfilled several critical commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, rolling back its nuclear program. In return, the UN, the European Union and the United States have committed to giving Iran significant nuclear sanctions relief.
Along with other UN member states, Canada is reviewing its sanctions regime against Iran in the context of the sanctions relief being provided as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and will comply with the decisions of the United Nations Security Council.
Quotes
“Canada commends the P5+1 and the EU for their leadership, which led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and welcomes the announcement that Implementation Day has been reached. This is a major milestone for the deal.
“As the international community has made clear, this agreement is built on verification, not trust. As long as it is fully implemented, Canada believes the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action will help to ensure that Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon.
“Canada remains strongly supportive of the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], which continues to verify Iran’s implementation of its nuclear commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.”
- Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
On July 14, 2015, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) plus Germany (the P5+1) and Iran agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program would be exclusively peaceful.
In December 2015, Canada approved an additional contribution of $1 million to support the IAEA’s essential verification role, bringing the country’s total support for the IAEA’s verification work in Iran to $10 million since 2014.
On January 16, 2016, the Director General of the IAEA submitted a report to the IAEA Board of Governors and to the UN Security Council stating that the agency had verified Iran’s implementation of its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action required for Implementation Day to occur.
The commitments include Iran shipping the vast majority of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Russia, turning over more than 13,000 centrifuges to IAEA-monitored storage and rendering an essential component of the Arak heavy water reactor inoperable, making it unusable in any other reactor.
Associated links
Canadian sanctions related to Iran
International Atomic Energy Agency
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
IAEA and Iran - IAEA reports
UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015)
Contacts
Media Relations Office
Global Affairs Canada
343-203-7700
media@international.gc.ca

Iran emerges from isolation as sanctions lifted
By Lesley Wroughton and Yeganeh Torbati Reuters, Vienna/Washington Sunday, 17 January 2016/Iran emerged from years of economic isolation on Saturday when world powers lifted crippling sanctions against the Islamic Republic in return for Tehran complying with a deal to curb its nuclear ambitions.
In a dramatic move scheduled to coincide with the scrapping of the sanctions, Tehran also announced the release of five Americans including Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian as part of a prisoner swap with the United States.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Yukiya Amano and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini (front L-R) arrive at the United Nations building in Vienna, Austria, January 16, 2016. (Reuters)
Together, the lifting of sanctions and the prisoner deal considerably reduce the hostility between Tehran and Washington that has shaped the Middle East since Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Tens of billions of dollars worth of Iranian assets will now be unfrozen and global companies that have been barred from doing business there will be able to exploit a market hungry for everything from automobiles to airplane parts.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog ruled on Saturday that Iran had abided by an agreement last year with six world powers to curtail its nuclear program, triggering the end of sanctions.
“Iran has carried out all measures required under the (July deal) to enable Implementation Day (of the deal) to occur,” the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement.
Within minutes, the United States formally lifted banking, steel, shipping and other sanctions on Iran, a major oil producer which has been virtually shut out of international markets for the past five years.
The European Union also began the process of lifting sanctions and Iran’s transport minister said Tehran plans to buy 114 civil aircraft from European aircraft maker Airbus.
The end of sanctions means more money and prestige for Shiite Muslim Iran as it becomes deeply embroiled in the sectarian conflicts of the Middle East, notably in the Syrian civil war where its allies are facing Sunni Muslim rebels.
America’s thaw with Iran is viewed with deep suspicion by U.S. Republicans as well as American allies in the Middle East, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. U.S.-Iranian suspicion still remains deeply entrenched.
Washington maintains separate, less comprehensive sanctions on Iran over its missile program. For its part, Iran detained 10 U.S. Navy sailors on two boats in the Gulf a week ago, although they were released the next day.
Dramatic prisoner deal
In an unusual move, President Barack Obama pardoned three Iranian-Americans charged for violating sanctions against Iran, a lawyer for one of the men said, while prosecutors moved to drop charges against four Iranians outside the United States.
Iran agreed to free five Americans including Rezaian and Saeed Abedini, an Iranian-American Christian pastor sentenced to eight years in prison in 2013 on charges of undermining Iran’s national security.
But a U.S. official said four of the Americans had not yet left Iran due to ongoing logistical issues. The fifth prisoner, Matthew Trevithick, has left the country after 40 days in prison. Trevithick, a student and journalist, had traveled and worked in conflict-torn nations including Syria, Mali and Afghanistan.
The prisoner deal was the culmination of months of diplomatic contacts, secret talks and legal maneuvering which came close to falling apart because of a threat by Washington in December to impose fresh sanctions on Iran for recent ballistic missile tests.
The detente with Iran is opposed by all of the Republican candidates vying to succeed Obama as president in an election in November.
Republican front-runner Donald Trump said at a campaign event that he was happy Americans were being freed, “but I will tell you it’s a disgrace that they were there for so long.”
Ted Cruz, a conservative senator from Texas and one of the leading Republicans, tweeted in support of Abedini’s release: “Praise God! Surely bad parts of Obama’s latest deal, but prayers of thanksgiving that Pastor Saeed is coming home.”
Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton took credit for helping to start the sanctions pressure on Iran during her 2009-2013 tenure as Obama’s secretary of state.
“These are important steps that make the United States, our allies, and the entire world safer. I congratulate President Obama and his team, and I’m proud of the role I played to get this process started,” she said in a statement.
Clinton also urged new sanctions on Tehran over its ballistic missile testing program.
Iran’s return to an already glutted oil market is one of the factors contributing to a global rout in oil prices, which fell below $30 a barrel this week for the first time in 12 years.
Tehran says it could boost exports by 500,000 barrels per day within weeks.
The end of sanctions marks a crowning achievement for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a pragmatic cleric elected in 2013 in a landslide on a promise to reduce Iran’s international isolation.
The economic measures, mostly imposed in the last five years, had cut off the country of 80 million people from the global financial system, slashed Iran’s exports and imposed severe economic hardship on ordinary Iranians.
Rouhani was granted the authority to negotiate the deal by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an arch-conservative in power since 1989.
Iran denies its nuclear program was aimed at obtaining an atomic bomb.
Rouhani congratulated the Iranian nation on Saturday after the news that sanctions were to be lifted.
“Thank God for this blessing and bow to the greatness of the patient nation of Iran. Congrats on this glorious victory,” Rouhani tweeted in English.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has argued, including in a New York Times op-ed column last week, that Iran wants to help the global fight against Sunni Muslim militants like ISIS and al-Qaeda.
“It’s now time for all — especially Muslim nations — to join hands and rid the world of violent extremism. Iran is ready,” Zarif tweeted on Saturday.

Rowhani: Sceptics of Iran nuclear deal ‘all proven wrong’
AFP, Tehran Sunday, 17 January 2016/President Hassan Rowhani said Sunday that sceptics who said a nuclear deal with world powers would not bring benefits to Iran “were all proven wrong”. “Within a few hours” of the nuclear deal being implemented and sanctions lifted “1,000 lines of credit were opened by various banks,” Rowhani told reporters in Tehran. “This showed that those who used to say, ‘do not believe’ were mistaken,” he said, stressing the deal would now make it easier for Iranian businesses to operate after years of being frozen out of the international financial system. “Today we are in an atmosphere where we can have political, economic and legal interaction with the world to the benefit of our national interests,” the president said. “We believe in our national strength. We believe in our nation’s success,” he added. The remarks were a riposte to doubters who say that the diplomatic success of the nuclear deal will not translate into concrete economic benefits for Iran’s economy. Rowhani staked his presidency on the nuclear talks, deepening the diplomacy which involved Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany after taking office in August 2013. Only last week he said Iranians should look forward to a “year of prosperity” after sanctions are lifted.

Three freed American prisoners leave Iran
By Staff Writer Al Arabiya News Sunday, 17 January 2016/Three Iranian-Americans left Tehran on Sunday under a prisoner swap following the lifting of sanctions on Iran that is likely to thaw ties further with the United States as Tehran emerges from years of international isolation. A U.S. official said the Swiss plane had left carrying Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post’s Tehran bureau chief, Saeed Abedini, a pastor from Idaho and Amir Hekmati, a former Marine from Flint, Michigan, as well as some family members. “Today, our brother, son and friend Amir Hekmati has been released from Iran. We have now been officially told that he is on a plane leaving the country,” Hekmati’s family said in a statement. “It is hard to put into words what our family feels right now. But we remain in hopeful anticipation until Amir is in our arms.”But one of the four, Nosratollah Khosravi-Roodsari, was not on the plane that left Tehran on Sunday, a senior U.S. official said. While it was not immediately clear whether he opted to stay in Iran or depart separately, an earlier State Department statement said “those who wished to depart Iran have left.”Little is known about Nosratollah. According to a report in the Huffington Post, no press coverage could be found about his arrest. The article went on to state that Obama administration officials had ‘refused to offer any clues about Khosravi-Roodsari's background, why he was in Iran, or why he had been imprisoned, citing privacy laws.’ A fifth prisoner, the American student Matthew Trevithick, was released separately from the other four on Saturday, a U.S. official said. “We can confirm that our detained U.S. citizens have been released and that those who wished to depart Iran have left,” a senior U.S. administration official said. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told CNN as the plane was about to depart. Several Iranian-Americans held in U.S. prisons after being charged or convicted for sanctions violations have also been released, their lawyers told Reuters on Sunday. The prisoner deal was the culmination of months of diplomatic contacts, secret talks and legal maneuvering which came close to falling apart because of a threat by Washington in December to impose fresh sanctions on Iran for recent ballistic missile tests. (With Reuters)

U.S. Imposes Sanctions Linked to Iran's Ballistic Missile Program
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/16/The United States on Sunday announced new sanctions linked to Iran's ballistic missile program, just a day after sanctions targeting its nuclear program were lifted. In remarks shortly before the U.S. announcement, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani of Iran said that any new American sanctions would be "met by an appropriate response."The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that it had added five Iranian nationals and a network of companies based in the United Arab Emirates and China to an American blacklist. It said the network had "obfuscated the end user of sensitive goods for missile proliferation by using front companies in third countries to deceive foreign suppliers" and that the five individuals had "worked to procure ballistic missile components for Iran."Adam J. Szubin, acting under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said that “Iran’s ballistic missile program poses a significant threat to regional and global security, and it will continue to be subject to international sanctions.”Rouhani, speaking at a news conference in Tehran some 90 minutes before the new U.S. measures were announced, was asked what would happen if the United States imposed new sanctions or violated terms of the nuclear agreement. “Any action will be met by a reaction,” he said. “If the Americans impose any measure they will receive an appropriate response.”

Iran releases Washington Post reporter in U.S. prisoner swap
AFP Saturday, 16 January 2016/The Washington Post welcomed Iran's release of its reporter Jason Rezaian on Saturday, in a message from its publisher Frederick Ryan. "We couldn't be happier to hear the news that Jason Rezaian has been released from Evin Prison. Once we receive more details and can confirm Jason has safely left Iran, we will have more to share," he said. Rezaian, a California-born Iranian-American, was detained in July 2014 and later convicted after a trial on charges of espionage and other crimes against national security. He was freed on Saturday along with three more Iranian-Americans after what US officials said was a long diplomatic campaign to secure their release.

Gulf Shares in Free Fall after Oil Rout, Iran Deal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/16/Share prices in the energy-rich Gulf states nosedived Sunday following the sharp decline in oil prices and the expected rise in Iranian crude exports after the lifting of sanctions. The plunge in the first day of trading in the Muslim week also follows heavy losses in global bourses on Friday, when Gulf exchanges were closed for the weekend. The price of oil, which contributes more than 80 percent to Gulf states' revenues, shed more than 20 percent this year to drop below $30 a barrel. This follows a plunge of 65 percent in the past two years. The return of Iran to the oil market will only worsen the production glut that has been the main reason for the oil price dive. All seven Gulf bourses saw a wave of panicked sell-offs, sending indices to multi-year lows. The Saudi Tadawul All-Shares Index, the largest Arab market, dived 6.5 percent to below 5,500-points just minutes after the start of trading. The level was last seen in early 2011. The leading petrochemicals sector dipped 8.0 percent, while banks lost 5.3 percent. Since the start of 2016, the TASI has dropped 21.1 percent, more than all of its losses last year. The Qatar and Dubai bourses also dropped 6.0 percent at the opening before easing slightly. The Dubai Financial Market was trading down 5.0 percent to below the 2,700-point mark. Blue chips properties giant Emaar and leading construction firm Arabtec dropped 5.3 percent and 7.0 percent. The Qatar Exchange, the second largest in the Gulf after Saudi Arabia's, fluctuated sharply within minutes after opening. The bourse was trading down 5.6 percent below the 8,700-point level. Since the beginning of this year, Dubai has dropped 15 percent and Qatar shed 17 percent. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange also slumped 4.3 percent but remained above the 3,700-point mark. All sectors were down. The Kuwait Stock Exchange dropped 3.2 percent to just above the 5,000-point mark, levels only seen in 2004. The small market of Oman dropped 1.5 percent and Bahrain 0.3 percent. Since the beginning of 2016, the seven stock markets have shed more than $130 billion of their market capitalisation, which now stands at about $800 billion. All Gulf stock exchanges ended 2015 in negative territory, led by Saudi Arabia, after the sharp decline in oil prices.

Obama pardons Iranians charged with sanctions violations
By Yeganeh Torbati and Joel Schectman Reuters, Washington Sunday, 17 January 2016/President Barack Obama pardoned three Iranians charged with sanctions violations as U.S. authorities moved to drop charges or commute prison sentences on Saturday for five other men, part of a stunning and secretly negotiated deal that saw four Americans freed by Iran. The deal removed a major source of acrimony standing in the way of further rapprochement between the long-time foes, but opened the Obama administration to immediate criticism that it had agreed to a bad deal that would set a dangerous precedent.
It also represented a reversal of the past five years of U.S. policy, during which U.S. law enforcement prosecuted illicit trade with Iran, even in common consumer items, as a threat to national security.
The prisoner deal with Iran came the same day major powers began to lift economic sanctions against Tehran in exchange for steps to curb its nuclear program, implementing an international nuclear agreement. Republicans welcomed the release of Americans but criticized the leniency shown towards Iranians charged with violating sanctions which U.S. officials credit with pressuring Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program. “(They were released) in return for people that violated Iran sanctions, Iranians that were in prison here for violating those sanctions,” said Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush in New Hampshire on Saturday. “Every time we show weakness it is a victory for Iran.” The White House said it had offered clemency to seven Iranians, six of whom were dual U.S.-Iranian citizens. In addition, the U.S. State Department said it had withdrawn international arrest notices for 14 Iranians wanted on sanctions violations.
U.S. officials declined to detail the cases but said Obama had exercised his power to pardon and commute sentences for the Iranians, who they said posed no danger to the United States. Joel Androphy, a lawyer for Bahram Mechanic, said his client and two others, Tooraj Faridi and Khosrow Afghahi, had been granted pardons by Obama. They were accused in 2015 of shipping electronics to Iran. Mechanic and Afghahi were being held without bail in Houston, while Faridi was out on bail. All three are Iranian-American dual citizens and had pleaded not guilty. Androphy said on Saturday afternoon that Mechanic and Afghahi had not been released yet and that their release would come when the four American prisoners left Iran. U.S. officials said on Saturday evening that the four Americans had not yet left Iran while logistical steps are being completed, but that a fifth prisoner, released independently of the prisoner swap, has left the country. “We’re ecstatic that the president has decided to pardon them for basically trade issues,” Androphy told Reuters, adding that his client had plans to eventually visit Iran again. A lawyer for Faridi welcomed the news on Saturday, and said his client did not plan to return to Iran. “He has no plans to go back to Iran for a visit,” said Kent Schaffer, Faridi’s attorney. “He fought hard to get here and he wants to stay here.”The three men were among 12 Iranians in the United States identified by Reuters this week as being imprisoned for or charged with sanctions violations.
The U.S. Justice Department also moved on Saturday to drop sanctions charges against four other men who are outside the United States, according to electronic court filings. Citing “significant foreign policy interests”, federal prosecutors in Massachusetts, New York, California, and Texas asked federal judges early Saturday to dismiss charges against them.
U.S. authorities have considered three of them fugitives and had been seeking extradition from Malaysia for one. Authorities were also working to obtain early release for Ali Saboonchi, convicted of export violations in 2014, according to people familiar with the matter. Between 2009 and 2013, Saboonchi and several associates tried to export industrial parts to customers in Iran, according to an indictment filed in 2013. He was sentenced to two years in prison and was due to be released in November 2016. U.S. officials characterized the move as a humanitarian gesture, but some experts said the leniency toward Iranians accused of sanctions violations could set a bad precedent. The pardons will discourage prosecutors from bringing similar sanctions enforcement cases, which are complicated and can take years to prosecute, said David Hall, a former federal prosecutor in Pennsylvania and Delaware who investigated and brought charges on Iran sanctions cases. “They’re already hard enough and that’s the reason there are so few of them to begin with,” Hall said. Dozens of Iranians have been charged with U.S. sanctions violations since 2008. Melissa Visconti, a former federal prosecutor who brought numerous Iran sanctions-busting cases, said that while she had “mixed feelings” about the exchange, she was confident the U.S. Justice Department had vetted the cases carefully before signing off on any release. “The Justice Department is not going to release someone who is going to be a danger to American citizens,” Visconti said. “If these guys are being released, it means they are not very high up on the food chain.”A spokesman for the Justice Department referred questions to the White House. The electronic filings came hours before U.S. officials said the Americans being held in Iran were being released.

How the world reacted to Iran sanctions lifting
Agencies, Vienna Sunday, 17 January 2016/Here’s how Iran and world powers reacted to the implementation of a deal reached last year to curb Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Removing the sanctions is part of the international agreement reached last year among Iran, the U.S., and five other world powers when Iran agreed to curbs on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Lifting sanctions will allow Iran to immediately recoup some $100 billion in assets frozen overseas. Iran will also see huge benefits from new oil, trade and financial opportunities.
Global reactions
•Iran's President Hassan Rowhani said the implementation of the nuclear deal with world powers was a "glorious victory" for the "patient nation of Iran."
In comments posted on his official Twitter account, he wrote: "I thank God for this blessing & bow to the greatness of the patient nation of Iran. Congrats on this glorious victory!"Only last week he said Iranians should look forward to a "year of prosperity" after sanctions are lifted.
"The government is running the country under sanctions not under normal circumstances. God willing, in the coming days we will witness a rolling up of the sanctions scroll in this country," he said. On the back of the nuclear deal, Rowhani wants to make greater inroads in domestic policy, with even modest social and political reforms in the Islamic republic. But he has faced criticism from hardline groups about the nuclear accord, with opponents warning it could lead to "infiltration" by the United States in Iran's economy and other arenas.
• U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says the threat of a nuclear weapon has been reduced as he announces the implementation of a landmark nuclear deal with Iran. Speaking in Vienna, Kerry tells reporters that the United States is lifting nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, a step that he says will expand the horizon of opportunity for the Iranian people. Kerry says the steps Iran has taken have fundamentally altered Iran's nuclear program. He says the agreement, reached last July, is a reminder "once again of diplomacy's power to tackle significant challenges."
• The United Nations secretary-general is welcoming implementation of the nuclear deal between Iran and six major powers as "a significant milestone." Ban Ki-moon says the U.N. nuclear agency's certification Saturday that Iran has met all of its commitments under last summer's landmark nuclear deal "reflects the good faith effort by all parties to fulfil their agreed commitments." That's according to his spokesman in a statement. The statement says the achievement shows that dialogue and patient diplomacy are the best way to address worries about weapons proliferation. And Ban expresses the hope that the agreement will contribute to greater cooperation for peace, security and stability in the region and beyond.
• Multinational and national nuclear-related sanctions on Iran are lifted following Tehran's compliance with July's atomic deal with major powers, European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said Saturday. "As Iran has fulfilled its commitments, today, multilateral and national economic and financial sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program are lifted in accordance" with the July deal, Mogherini said in Vienna.
• British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond hailed Saturday's implementation of the nuclear agreement between Iran and global powers as an "important landmark" that made the "world a safer place". "The nuclear deal with Iran, in which Britain played a major role, makes the Middle East and the wider world a safer place", the British minister said in a statement.
• German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the implementation of the deal marks "a historic success for diplomacy
"The Iranian nuclear programme will now for many years be subjected to strict technical restrictions and close monitoring," said Steinmeier, whose country was among the six world powers that negotiated the landmark deal with Tehran.
The diplomatic victory allows for the hope that "we may yet succeed in defusing other urgent crises and conflicts in the region, especially regarding the civil war in Syria," he said in a statement. "It won't happen overnight and it won't be easy, but neither were the nuclear negotiations with Iran."
• France "welcomed the start of the implementation of the nuclear agreement with Iran", Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, adding that he hoped for the same "spirit of cooperation" with Tehran in other regional issues. "This is an important step for peace and security," he said in a statement. "At a time when the region is seeing immense challenges and strong tensions, I hope that the spirit of cooperation that marked the conclusion of the deal can also be brought to all the other regional issues."
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu isn't joining the chorus of congratulations over the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal. Far from it.
Netanyahu's office says in a statement that Iran has not given up its nuclear ambitions and is a destabilizing force in the Middle East, as well as a supporter of terrorism. The statement urges world powers to monitor Iran closely and respond harshly to any violation of its obligations. And the statement vows Israel "will do everything necessary to protect its security and defend itself."
• Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is expressing relief over the return of Americans being held prisoner in Iran. But she says Iran shouldn't be thanked for freeing them because they were being held unjustly. Clinton also says that Iran shouldn't be thanked for following through on its obligations now that the nuclear agreement with the U.S. and other world powers is being fully implemented. In a statement issued Saturday in New York, Clinton warns against taking eyes off the ball concerning Iran. She says that as president her approach would be to "distrust and verify" while vigorously enforcing the nuclear deal.
• Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan vigorously denounced the nuclear deal with Iran that was implemented Saturday, vowing U.S. lawmakers would "do everything possible" to prevent Tehran from getting the atomic bomb. "Today, the Obama administration will begin lifting economic sanctions on the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism," Ryan said in a statement. "A bipartisan majority in the House voted to reject this deal in the first place, and we will continue to do everything possible to prevent a nuclear Iran."

Netanyahu: Israel Will not Allow Iran to Obtain Nuclear Weapons
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/16/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran on Sunday that Israel would not allow it to obtain nuclear weapons, after sanctions were lifted under Tehran's historic nuclear deal with global powers. "Israel's policy has been and will remain exactly what has been followed: to not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said during a cabinet meeting, according to his office. Netanyahu strongly opposed the nuclear deal with Israel's arch-foe Iran and argued that it would not prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. He has also said that the lifting of sanctions will allow Iran to further back proxy militants in the region, including Israeli enemies Hezbollah. Israel has not ruled out military force in order to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons, though analysts say unilateral action would be highly unlikely. Netanyahu said Israel will continue to monitor Iran's agreements "on nuclear, on ballistic missiles and on terrorism" for potential violations. If violations occur, the international community should "take tough and aggressive sanctions" against Iran, Netanyahu said, adding that Israel "is ready to face any threat". Israel is the Middle East's sole, but undeclared, nuclear power. Netanyahu said in a statement on Saturday that "Iran has not relinquished its ambition to obtain nuclear weapons" and pledged to "warn of any violation" of the agreement. The UN's atomic watchdog late on Saturday confirmed that Iran had complied with its obligations under last summer's accord and the United States and European Union announced they were lifting the sanctions that have for years crippled the country's economy. The highly complex deal drew a line under a standoff dating back to 2002 marked by failed diplomatic initiatives, ever-tighter sanctions, defiant nuclear expansion by Iran and threats of military action. In addition the nuclear talks put Iran and the United States on the road to better relations, more than three decades after the Islamic revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed shah. Netanyahu's harsh opposition to the accord, including in a speech to the U.S. Congress, led to troubled ties with the United States, Israel's most important ally. He has scaled back his public comments on the deal in recent weeks.

Iran Needs $30-50 bn Annual Foreign Investment
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/16/Iran needs annual foreign investment of $30-$50 billion to reach an eight percent growth target and cash in on a nuclear deal with world powers, President Hassan Rouhani said Sunday. Laying out the budget for the next Iranian year which starts March 20, Rouhani told parliament, a day after the implementation of the historic deal, that the collapse in global oil prices meant the government had to look to abroad to boost the economy. "Untapped potential in many industries indicates that domestic demand cannot solely push the economy toward eight percent growth," he said, signalling a shift in policy. "Attracting foreign investment will be the best way of using the opportunity of sanctions relief to boost the economy and security."Low oil prices and years of US and European Union sanctions that barred much of Iran's foreign oil sales hammered its income from crude. But despite global prices falling below $30 Iran intends to increase production after the nuclear deal to recoup lost market share. Rouhani's government used a projected $40 per barrel price and exports of 2.25 million barrels per day -- a doubling of current sales. Even at that level Iran's budget would be less than 25 percent reliant on oil sales, with a much higher 68 percent of revenues coming from taxes. A 75 percent drop in oil prices, from $110 to $30 meant "oil revenues would not be considerable," Rouhani said. "Such drastic drop in oil prices has been unprecedented in the past decades and we cannot base economic growth and employment on optimistic estimations." The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Saturday that Iran had carried out measures agreed under last July's nuclear deal, ensuring sanctions would be lifted. As well as next year's budget Rouhani submitted the Islamic republic's sixth five-year development plan, based on policies set by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's ultimate authority. "Reaching eight percent growth requires attracting $30-$50 billion in foreign investment each year," he said. Iran's budget had been ready and printed for weeks, but Rouhani decided not to present it until the nuclear deal was implemented because it was based on sanctions being lifted.

Iran 'Return' to Oil Market Risks more Price Pressure
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/16/Iran's intention to significantly increase oil output after the lifting of international sanctions risks more pressure on crude prices already at 12-year lows, according to analysts. Oil prices tumbled by more than 30 percent last year and have slumped by a further 20 percent since the beginning of 2016 -- culminating in drops below $30 a barrel last week. "The immediate impact of the news that Iran is returning to the market will almost certainly be bearish for oil prices," Fawad Razaqzada, an oil analyst at Forex.com, told Agence France Presse. "Given that this is mostly priced in however, we probably wouldn't see a massive reaction. The full impact may be felt when the market knows how much oil Iran will actually produce and what the response from its competitors will be."The Islamic Republic's move to hike production comes after an agreement negotiated in July between Tehran, Britain, China, France, Germany and the United States to limit Iran's controversial nuclear programme in exchange for a progressive lifting of sanctions, including those related to oil exports. While the progressive removal of international sanctions limits Iran's return to full production capacity, additional exports to a market already well oversupplied does not bode well for prices. "If Iran's goal is reached, this will not fundamentally change the current state of the oil market," Saxo Bank analyst Christopher Dembik told AFP. "This will of course result in greater oversupply but it will not be decisive to the evolution of oil price over the year," he added. Iran insists that it will not concede on its level of production once the international nuclear agreement comes into force. According to analysts at Commerzbank, Tehran could resort to a progressive production increase to limit the pressure on oil prices, a view supported by the president of the National Iranian Oil Company. And it claims that it will produce 500,000 additional barrels of oil per day once the sanctions are lifted, rising to an extra one million barrels before the end of the year. - Foreign investment -The estimates appear credible to many analysts, since it produced 4.0 million barrels per day before the international sanctions were imposed, and is currently pumping 3.0 million. "I think Iran will easily be able to scale up oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day initially, but the question is will it be able to sell the additional barrels," said Razaqzada. Another unknown is the reaction of Iran's competitors, especially within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Tehran was the second largest producer before 2012. "Will OPEC accommodate for this additional supply by reducing output? I have serious doubts about that, especially given the increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia," added Razaqzada. Most commentators consider that the recent escalation of tensions between Riyadh and Tehran could compromise the chances of OPEC members agreeing on reducing the cartel's production. Dembik meanwhile highlighted the poor state of infrastructure in the country, posing uncertainty to the pace at which Iran will return to pre-sanctions levels. "The production infrastructure has aged due to the sanctions applied. There is a major need for upgrading and therefore to attract foreign investment," he explained. According to Dembik, Iran's ability to export will hinge on its capacity to attract foreign investment. Tehran has meanwhile engaged in a charm offensive directed at investors since the signature of the nuclear agreement.

Palestinian Tries to Stab Israeli Soldiers, Shot Dead
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/16/A Palestinian attempted to stab Israeli soldiers in the northern West Bank Sunday and was shot dead, the Israeli army said, in the latest in more than three months of such attacks. "A Palestinian assailant drew a knife and attempted to stab soldiers securing the area," south of the city of Nablus, a statement said. "The force responded and fired towards the attacker, resulting in his death." No injuries were reported among the Israelis. Israel and the Palestinian territories have seen a wave of violence in recent months, with 23 Israelis and 155 Palestinians killed since October 1. Many of the Palestinians have been killed while carrying out attacks, while others were shot by Israeli forces during protests and clashes. A large amount of the Palestinian attackers have been young people, including teenagers. A number of them have attempted attacks with kitchen knives in what some analysts have described as virtual suicide missions. Some analysts say the attacks have been in part driven by frustration with the complete lack of progress in peace efforts, Israel's continuing occupation of the West Bank and their own fractured Palestinian leadership. Israel says incitement by Palestinian leaders and news media has been a main cause of the violence. There have been allegations that Israel has used excessive force in some cases, which it firmly denies. Israeli officials said last week that Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom would not be welcome to the country following her call for investigations into the killing of Palestinians by Israeli forces and other critical comments.

Car bomb explodes near security official’s home in Yemeni port
Reuters, Dubai Sunday, 17 January 2016/A car bomb exploded on Sunday outside the home of the director of security for the southern Yemeni port city of Aden, the local Aden al-Ghad newspaper reported, publishing a picture of a thick plume of black smoke near a beach. “Eyewitnesses told Aden al-Ghad that the car bomb detonated in the vicinity of the house where (Shelal Ali) Shayyeh lives ... The explosion led to deaths and injuries,” the paper reported, without elaborating.

Pakistan PM to visit Saudi and Iran ‘to ease tension’
AFP, Islamabad Sunday, 17 January 2016/Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will lead a high-level delegation to Saudi Arabia and Iran this week to try to ease tension between the Muslim countries, a minister said Sunday. Information minister Pervez Rashid told AFP Sharif would travel to Riyadh on Monday and Tehran on Tuesday and would meet Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Foreign ministry spokesman Qazi Khalilullah said Sharif would exchange views on regional and international issues and try to reduce tension between the two countries. “Pakistan is deeply concerned at the recent escalation of tensions between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the spokesman said in a statement. He said the prime minister has called for the peaceful settlement of differences in the larger interests of Muslim unity. “The purpose of the visit is to mediate and to end the standoff between the two countries,” a third government official told AFP, requesting anonymity. Saudi Arabia and a number of its Arab allies cut diplomatic ties with Iran after protesters angry at Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric on January 2 sacked its embassy in Tehran. Local media said Pakistan’s powerful army chief General Raheel Sharif would accompany Premier Sharif.

MSF delivers medical aid to Yemen’s besieged Taez
Staff Writer Sunday, 17 January 2016/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said said it delivered medical supplies on Sunday to areas besieged by Houthi militias in Yemen's flashpoint Taez city for the first time in months. The group also known as Doctors without Borders said two trucks "full of essential medical supplies" entered the southwestern city in the first such operation in five months. The last time a "significant" shipment of medical supplies reached the city was in August, it said."We're grateful that we managed to deliver the medical supplies to the hospitals," said in a statement Karline Kleijer, MSF's emergency manager for Yemen. The Paris-based medical humanitarian organisation said treating the wounded and surgery had at times been suspended over the past five months due to lack of supplies. "The checkpoints in combination with severe fighting in the area have severely hampered humanitarian access into this part of the city," it said of areas besieged by the Shiite Huthi rebels. The 600,000 residents of Taez have been in dire need as Houthis besiege the community defended by pro-government forces. The situation has become so desperate that many residents have taken to treacherous mountain paths to bring in goods. A Saudi aid dispatch consisting of 40 tons of medicine and food was dropped in the city on Wednesday. The aid included medicines, medical equipment and dry food “to break the siege imposed on parts of Taez province,” Abdullah al-Rabeeah, director of the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre, told the Saudi Press Agency.

Anti-Christian graffiti sprayed on Jerusalem church
AFP, Jerusalem Sunday, 17 January 2016/Anti-Christian graffiti has been sprayed on a wall of a Jerusalem abbey built where tradition says the mother of Jesus died, police said Sunday, in an incident similar to previous acts blamed on Jewish extremists. The graffiti written in Hebrew on an outside wall of the Dormition Abbey included phrases such as “kill the pagans” and “death to the Christian unbelievers, enemies of Israel,” a spokesman for the Catholic Church in the Holy Land said. Police said the graffiti had been discovered during a patrol and an investigation had been opened. The Benedictine abbey is located on Mount Zion across from east Jerusalem’s Old City and next to the site where Christians believe Jesus’s Last Supper occurred. It was previously hit in 2014, when furniture and wooden crosses were burned. “This time it amounts to a real call to murder Christians,” said church spokesman Wadi Abu Nassar.
A Jerusalem municipality worker cleans anti-Christian graffiti in Hebrew, daubed on the Church of the Dormition, one of Jerusalem’s leading pilgrimage sites, outside of the Old City of Jerusalem, on January 17, 2016. (AFP). Jewish extremists have targeted Palestinians, Christians and even Israeli military property in “price-tag” attacks -- a term that indicates there is a price to be paid for moves against Jewish settlers. Earlier this month, two Israelis, including a minor, where charged over the 2014 incident at the Dormition Abbey as well as an arson attack at the Church of the Multiplication on the Sea of Galilee.
That church is located where Christians believe Jesus performed the miracle of loaves and fishes. The most prominent suspected Jewish extremist attack recently was the July firebombing of a Palestinian home in the West Bank that killed a toddler along with his mother and father. On January 3, an Israeli court charged two suspected Jewish extremists over the firebombing, including the minor accused in the 2014 arson at the Dormition Abbey. Vatican efforts to negotiate greater rights at the neighbouring Upper Room, where the Last Supper is believed to have occurred, have sparked opposition from nationalist and Orthodox Jews, who revere part of the building as the tomb of King David.
Pope Francis celebrated a mass at the Upper Room during a visit in 2014.

Airstrikes on Syria’s Raqqa killed 40 civilians Saturday: monitor
AFP, Beirut Sunday, 17 January 2016/Airstrikes on the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group’s Syrian bastion of Raqqa on Saturday killed 40 civilians, including children, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor said on Sunday. The Britain-based group said it was unclear if the strikes were carried out by regime or Russian planes, adding that eight children were among those killed.

Naming of Libyan unity government delayed by 48 hours
Reuters, Tunis Sunday, 17 January 2016/The body tasked with naming a unity government for Libya under a U.N.-backed plan to resolve the country’s political crisis has delayed the planned announcement of the government’s members by 48 hours. The Presidential Council said in a statement released late on Saturday that it had made “great progress” since beginning discussions on Jan. 1 but needed two more days to complete its work. Libya has been racked by political divisions and violence as numerous factions and militias have competed for power following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Since the summer of 2014 the country has had two rival governments, one based in the capital Tripoli and the other in the east. A United Nations-mediated deal struck in Morocco on Dec. 17 aims to heal the divisions and help Libya tackle a growing security threat from Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants. It gave the Tunis-based Presidential Council one month to name a Government of National Accord. But the presidents of Libya’s competing parliaments and many deputies did not back the agreement and it has continued to face stiff opposition from some factions on the ground. Once the new government’s membership is announced, the internationally recognized parliament in eastern Libya will have 10 days to approve it.

U.N. says ongoing battles destroy 1,500 buildings in Ramadi
AP, Baghdad Sunday, 17 January 2016/A United Nations report published Saturday finds that the ongoing battle for the city of Ramadi has damaged or destroyed more than 4,500 buildings. The findings, gathered by comparing satellite imagery of the city collected in July 2014 to imagery collected in December, reveal that nearly 1,500 buildings have been completely destroyed, the report said. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group overran Ramadi, capital of Anbar province, in May after months of clashes with Iraqi government forces. Last month government forces retook the city’s western and central districts under cover of heavy coalition air bombardment. “The kind of damage that happened in Ramadi is incomparable to what we saw in Tikrit,” said Lise Grande, the U.N.’s deputy special representative to Iraq, referring to the last major city that forces aligned with the Iraqi government took back from IS control. The extent of the damage in Ramadi, she says, raises concerns about reconstruction. Grande emphasized the report was preliminary as U.N. teams have not yet been able to access Ramadi, 70 miles (115 kilometers) west of Baghdad, on the ground. While members of the U.S.-led coalition to fight IS have pledged more than $50 million to Iraqi reconstruction, Iraqi and coalition officials estimate that rebuilding Ramadi alone could cost hundreds of millions of dollars. In the past month the U.S.-led coalition planes launched more than 140 airstrikes at IS targets in and around Ramadi. ISIS swept into Iraq in the summer of 2014, overrunning nearly a third of the country including Iraq’s second largest city of Mosul. Since then, Kurdish forces in the north and fighters aligned with the central government in the country’s western and central provinces have slowly clawed back some territory from the militant group, often under cover of heavy coalition air bombardment. But months of violence and the scorched earth practices ISIS employs upon retreat have left much of the reclaimed territory uninhabitable. As of November the U.N. estimated that 3 million Iraqis remained displaced by violence.

Palestinians arrest official on espionage charges
The Associated Press, Ramallah Sunday, 17 January 2016/Palestinian officials say they have arrested a staffer in the office of the chief negotiator on suspicion of leaking documents to Israel. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue, say Sunday that the man confessed to providing information to the Israelis. The suspect is said to have worked for 20 years in the negotiation department. Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat and his office declined comment. Erekat, who also serves as the secretary general of the PLO Executive Committee, is one of the most prominent Palestinian public officials and the discovery of a mole in his office could hurt his standing. Collaborating with Israel is considered a serious crime in Palestinian society. Some have been killed for doing so.

$40 billion needed to aid people in disasters
The Associated Press, United Nations Sunday, 17 January 2016/An estimated $40 billion is needed annually to help the rapidly growing number of people needing humanitarian aid as a result of conflicts and natural disasters - and one possibility to help fill the $15 billion funding gap is a small voluntary tax on tickets for soccer games and other sports, concerts and entertainment events, airline travel, and gasoline, a U.N.-appointed panel said. The panel's report on humanitarian financing, to be launched later Sunday by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in Dubai, says the world is spending around $25 billion today to provide life-saving assistance to 125 million people devastated by wars and natural disasters - more than 12 times the $2 billion that was spent in 2000. "We have an exponentially growing problem," said panel co-chair Kristalina Georgieva, the European Commission's vice president for budget and human resources. "The good news is that the world has never been so generous to people in need. The bad news is that never has our generosity been so insufficient."The nine-member panel calculated that an additional $15 billion is needed annually to reduce suffering and ensure that no one in need dies or has to live "without dignity" for a lack of money. "This is a lot of money, but not out of reach for a world producing $78 trillion of annual GDP," the panel said in the report to the secretary-general released Sunday. The 31-page report focuses on three inter-linked solutions to address the widening financial gap: mobilizing additional funds, shrinking the need for aid, and improving the efficiency of humanitarian assistance. The report says that today's massive instability and its capacity to cross borders, demonstrated by the flight of people from Syria and other conflict areas to Europe, "makes humanitarian aid a global public good that requires an appropriate fundraising model."It recommends that at the first U.N. humanitarian summit, to be held in Istanbul in May, governments voluntarily sign up to "the successful model of a solidarity levy and create a steady flow of revenues for humanitarian action."
The report points to a small levy on airline tickets, initially proposed by France, which raised 1.6 billion euros between 2006 and 2011 from just 10 participating countries - Georgieva estimated this at $2.3 billion - to help fund diagnosis and treatment for HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis in low-income countries. Georgieva said in a video briefing from Brussels before the report's release that the panel couldn't agree on the specifics of a levy because some members are against taxation.But she said she is "more optimistic on a voluntary levy, especially combined with social responsibility."
The panel has talked about a small tax on "high-volume transaction businesses" like Uber, concerts, entertainment, movies and sports and has been talking to some "potential players" including FIFA, the governing body of world football, Georgieva said. She said people probably wouldn't feel a five-cent or 10-cent addition to a ticket or a ride, but the money generated could have a major humanitarian impact. The report also calls for governments with greater wealth to provide more aid, for the humanitarian community to "harness the power of business to deliver its key skills and capabilities" including by supporting the delivery of aid and creating jobs, and for Muslim countries, which are most affected by conflict, to use "Islamic social finance" to help meet humanitarian needs.Georgieva said zakat, the annual donation many Muslims are religiously required to make as a basic tenet of the Islamic faith, raises between $300 billion and $500 billion a year, and earmarking just one percent of that for humanitarian aid would go "a long way" toward closing the $15 billion gap. To shrink the need for aid, the panel calls for world leaders to commit to preventing and resolving conflicts and to increasing investments in reducing the risk of natural disasters. In addition to putting more money in these areas, it recommends that aid should focus on "fragile countries" and countries experiencing shocks due to conflicts or natural disasters. The panel also recommends that humanitarian aid should follow people in need, not countries. Georgieva said this means, for example, that when people fleeing conflict move from Syria to Lebanon and Jordan, those middle-income countries can get access to grants and low-cost loans. To improve aid delivery, the panel calls for an end to competition between aid organizations and between humanitarian and development agencies. It calls for donors and aid organizations to come together in "a grand bargain" in which donors provide more cash, long-term, with fewer strings and aid organizations are more transparent so that everyone can "follow the money."

ISIS abducts 400 civilians in Syria's Deir Ezzor
AFP, Beirut Sunday, 17 January 2016/ISIS abducted at least 400 civilians including women and children after capturing new territory in an assault on Syria's eastern city of Deir Ezzor, a monitor said Sunday. "After their attack on Deir Ezzor (on Saturday), ISIS abducted at least 400 civilians from the residents of the Al-Baghaliyeh neighborhood it captured and adjacent areas in the northwest of the city," the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. "Those abducted, all of whom are Sunnis, include women, children and family members of pro-regime fighters," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said, adding they were transported to other areas under ISIS control. The ISIS atack on the city on Saturday killed at least 85 civilians and 50 regime forces, the monitor said, with state media denouncing a “massacre”. Syria’s state news agency SANA, quoting residents, said “around 300 civilians” were killed in the onslaught. If confirmed it would be one of the highest tolls for a single day in Syria’s nearly five-year war. The bloodshed in Deir Ezzor came as regime forces battled ISIS in the northern province of Aleppo, killing at least 16 militants, and as air strikes hit the ISIS stronghold of Raqa. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said ISIS had advanced into the northern tip of Deir Ezzor city and captured the northern suburb of Al-Baghaliyeh. Initially it reported that 35 Syrian soldiers and allied militiamen were killed in the multi-front attack, which including a suicide bombing. But as the day unfolded the death toll rose, with the Britain-based monitor saying that civilians were among those killed in Deir Ezzor. It said most of the victims were killed execution-style in Al-Baghaliyeh. Quoting “local sources”, SANA denounced a “massacre”. “The Daesh (ISIS) terrorists carried out a massacre in Al-Baghaliyeh, claiming the lives of around 300 civilians, most of them women, children and elderly people,” the agency said. It quoted Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halaqi as saying that the “legal and moral responsibility for this barbaric and cowardly massacre... lies on the shoulders of all the states that support terrorism and that fund and arm takfiri (Sunni extremist)” groups. According to the Observatory, the advance puts ISIS in control of around 60 percent of Deir Ezzor city, capital of the province of the same name in an oil-rich region bordering Iraq. ISIS said its fighters carried out several suicide bombings against regime forces in Deir Ezzor and seized control of Al-Baghaliyeh and other areas.The Observatory said Russian warplanes were carrying out heavy air strikes in support of regime forces as they sought to repel the militants.
Aleppo offensive
Regime troops were locked in fierce clashes with ISIS in Aleppo province, with at least 16 militants killed after a failed attack on a government position near the town of Al-Bab, the monitor said. State television also reported that regime forces had repelled an assault in the town. The Observatory said heavy fighting was ongoing Saturday in the area, with Russian warplanes carrying out strikes in the region between the regime-held Kweyris air base and Al-Bab. The regime has advanced towards the town, an ISIS bastion, in recent days, and is now within 10 kilometres (six miles) of it, said the Observatory. That is the closest regime forces have come to Al-Bab since 2012. Located some 30 kilometres south of the Turkish border, Al-Bab fell into rebel hands in July 2012, and ISIS militants captured it in late 2013.
Seven battlefronts
The fighting in Al-Bab is just one of up to seven battlefronts on which regime forces are seeking to advance in Aleppo province, capitalizing on a Russian air campaign that began on September 30. The battles are intended in part to cut rebel supply lines into Aleppo city, the provincial capital and Syria’s second city. Aleppo itself is divided and regime forces are now hoping to effectively encircle the opposition-held east. In addition to cutting rebel access to eastern Aleppo city, the regime is hoping to sever areas controlled by ISIS in the province from its territory in neighboring Raqa, Abdel Rahman said. Raqa, the self-declared capital of ISIS, has come under frequent air strikes by the U.S.-led coalition, the Syrian air force and Russian warplanes. On Saturday at least 16 people, including civilians, were killed in air strikes and 30 others were wounded, said Abdel Rahman. He said eight strikes hit the city and its surroundings but did not specify who carried them out. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, in comments reported Saturday, said some 600 Britons have been stopped from going to Syria to join ISIS and other militant groups. Hammond said these interceptions as well as air strikes were placing extra strain on ISIS in its Raqa headquarters. “There is evidence (ISIS) is finding it difficult to recruit to the brigades in Raqa because of the high attrition rate of foreign fighters,” he said, according to The Guardian and The Daily Telegraph newspapers. Syria’s war has killed more than 260,000 people and forced millions to flee their homes.

Educating Europe’s refugees as important as feeding them
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
More than a million refugees have arrived in Europe from around the world, who may be deemed as easy prey for extremist groups. These groups reached Europe before the influx of refugees and they enjoy greater freedom of expression. They are also more engaged in social activities. The more recent refugees, on the other hand, went to Europe in search of a new life. Yet, many of them may end up becoming the target of extremists looking to expand their presence. They are intent on producing terrorists and spreading an extremist ideology that turns these refugees into opponents of the very society they live in. Ever since Syrians started fleeing their war-ravaged country in large numbers, they headed to Europe via Turkey. This marked the beginning of a new phase in the crisis, which will probably continue even if the Syrian conflict is resolved. A million refugees, most of whom Syrians, is not a big number in a continent inhabited by around 300 million people. The number is also not a complication for Germany, the biggest refugee hosting country, as its huge economy can sustain them. But the challenge posed by these refugees is bigger on intellectual, social and security fronts.
What is as important is educating them so that they integrate with society easily and confront attempts by extremists to radicalize them.
There are real threats facing these refugees who are victims of the repulsive war which has unjustly displaced more than 10 million Syrian people and a few million Iraqis. The refugees in Europe are vulnerable to exploitation and to being used in this game which is getting more complicated and dangerous. There are powers fighting over them in Europe such as those who oppose refugees, parties protesting over unemployment and groups supporting Syrian and Iranian regimes. Of course the most dangerous are extremists and people cooperating with terrorist groups such as ISIS and al-Nusra Front.
Challenge of radicalization
It will be in the interest of German and European authorities in general to preemptively address this problem by not letting these refugees fall prey to extremists who influence them under the pretext of humanitarian support. These refugees must be intellectually equipped to live with dignity and co-exist in the new society which has hosted them; a society which respects their rights and beliefs and expects the same from refugees. European governments and people are currently focused on helping these refugees. They are being provided food and housing while their papers are processed. However, what is as important is educating them so that they integrate with society easily and confront attempts by extremists to radicalize them. Governments can do nothing but threaten to expel anyone who is proved to be engaging in extremist activities, as has been seen in Germany. This approach only addresses a small percentage of the 1 million refugees. The biggest challenge is to intellectually strengthen the majority from attempts being made by extremists to turn refugees from being thankful to hateful and into extremists who reject their new society and clash with it.
I am confident that it is possible to spread the culture of co-existence and tolerance, which can be derived from the refugees’ Muslim and Middle Eastern culture that has collapsed in the last three decades due to extremist and hateful ideologies and ongoing wars.

How D&G is capitalizing on the Muslim faith
Yara al-Wazir/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
Earlier this month, Italian fashion house Dolce & Gabbana (D&G) announced that their Spring- 2016 collection would see a line of abayas. An advertisement campaign was also launched alongside to entice average Muslim women like me towards the products. Yet the campaign, the models, and all the beauty and lace that is featured in every abaya does not hide what I believe is the real reason behind this line – to capitalize on a religion. Muslims represent a fast growing market in a slowly declining industry. Research by Morgan Stanley suggests that the fashion industry sales are declining in America as millennials are spending more money on rent and bills. Conversely, in the Middle East, the industry is booming. The fashion market in this region is expected to grow from $266 billion to $484 billion in annual sales, representing a compounded growth rate of 16 percent per year. The $266 billion figure is greater than the total spend of Japan and Italy combined. Of course it makes sense for an Italian fashion house to try and tap into the market. The core issue is that religion should not be treated as a commodity to be traded, helping companies rise and fall on the stock exchange. Religion is a deep spiritual connection with God, and while many Muslim women choose to represent this connection through their clothing, this is no excuse for an international company to capitalize on those who choose to express themselves. D&G is hardly trying to play the role of a mediator in a society that has politicized Muslim women’s choice of clothing. D&G is hardly trying to play the role of a mediator in a society that has very much politicized Muslim women’s choice of clothing, specifically the abaya. The abaya and the hijab have left women in the West feeling alienated and sometimes have even led to attacks. In fact, the first quarter of 2015 saw a six-fold increase in Islamophobic attacks in Paris. While there is a lot to be done to include Muslims, particularly women in western society and culture, highlighting and capitalizing the very garment that alienates them is not a valid method.
Lack of authenticity
Muslims come from all walks of life but the models depicted in the advertisement campaign do not remind me of home. There is little authenticity in the garments, which are heavily featured with lace. Many social media users commented on what the models look like, but I will not address that.
Instead, I will address the fact that a number of prominent Muslim women based in the West with active presence on social media would have brought a much needed dose of authenticity to the campaign. A personality such as Dina Torkia, who already has 800,000-member strong Instagram profile would have been the prime model for such a collection.
Keeping our culture local
A large number of fashion houses have tried to capitalize on the growth in the fashion and retail industry in the Middle East over the past few years. This includes Tommy Hilfiger, DKNY, and Mango. Sadly, the products manufactured by them are seen as ‘breakthrough innovative products’. This is far from the truth. The truth is that these products have existed in the market for decades, just without the international branding. Take oud-based perfumes, for example, a staple that I grew up with in the Gulf. The woody scents that once reminded me of my childhood now serve as a reminder of the capitalization of the Muslim faith by Tom Ford, with their range of oud-based perfumes. The same can be said about abayas – there are dozens of local fashion designers who make truly authentic Muslim garments, preserving the culture and heritage. Women like Alanoud Badr, a Saudi-Lebanese fashion consultant and designer, launched a line of stunning abayas for UHS-boutique. As the fashion market in the region is growing, we must use this opportunity to allow local Middle-East based designers to grow with it to a point where they take their fashion lines internationally. This will be better than international fashion houses infiltrating the local market.

Egypt’s new parliament and the clash of mythologies
Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
When Egypt’s parliament held its inaugural session on Sunday, the constitution’s formula intended to bind together all political factions except the Muslim Brotherhood, invoking the “principles” of the Jan. 25 revolution that led to the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak, and the June 30 revolution that led to the overthrow of his successor Mohammed Mursi. However, when Mohammed el-Itmani - an MP affiliated with the largest parliamentary faction, the Support for Egypt bloc - hailed these “two great revolutions” as he nominated himself as a candidate for parliament speaker, he was interrupted by independent deputies who denounced the Jan. 25 revolution. Unsurprisingly, they were MPs who had served in Mubarak’s ruling party in the last parliament prior to his overthrow. More than that, they were almost notorious in Egyptian politics as militant defenders of Mubarak when the demonstrations in Tahrir Square quickly turned into a mass uprising. The word revolution implies a profound change in social and political structures, which did not happen.
A large number of current MPs were members of Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP). With strong followings in their districts, they were elected as independents for this first post-Mursi parliament. Most of them did not join in the outburst.
For many Egyptians, NDP membership was simply equivalent to paying dues to participate effectively in public service, as with the Baath Party in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. That was the case with those former NDP members now serving as MPs who did not raise their voices against the very constitution they had just taken an oath to support. Nor did the two MPs subsequently elected as deputy speakers - both are former NDP members. The newly-elected speaker is constitutional law professor Ali Abdel-Al, a member of the Support for Egypt bloc. He widened the tent of reconciliation when upon being elected as speaker, he called on MPs to observe a minute’s silence for “the martyrs of both the Jan. 25 and June 30 revolutions, as well as those among the police, military and judiciary.”
Uprisings, not revolutions
All of this takes on relevance as Egypt approaches the fifth anniversary of what I prefer to refer to as the Jan. 25 uprising, since the word revolution implies a profound change in social and political structures, which did not happen. Nor did the uprising force Mubarak to flee. What it did was force the military command to face a momentous choice - preserve his rule by firing on millions of protesters, or stage a soft coup and force Mubarak to resign and leave Cairo with his immediate family. So it was the army command, not demonstrators who overthrew him. His mistake was to go to the family compound in Sharm el-Sheikh rather than leave the country, for in the weeks to come, additional demonstrations pushed the authorities to arrest him and his two sons and bring them back to the capital. The same can be said of the June 30 “revolution.” It too was an uprising. There were more protesters demanding that Mursi step down than there were against Mubarak. Mursi refused, as he had refused earlier efforts by the army command, led then by current President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, to persuade him to negotiate a compromise with opposition parties. That effort became an ultimatum in the wake of June 30. Again Mursi refused, again the army intervened, and again there have not yet been profound social and political changes.

Iran’s dreams come true, but will promises be kept?
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/January 17/16
Iranian leaders have long been yearning for this implementation day. The country’s dream, the lifting of economic sanctions, appears to have come true after almost 20 years. According to the terms of the nuclear agreement, which was reached in July between Iran and the P5+1 group – Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany – the implementation means several things. On the one hand it means that:
1. Tehran will get major relief from sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as well as unilateral Western sanctions.
2. Iran will receive roughly $90 billion as European countries lift sanctions on major industries such as gold and metal.
3. The U.S. will remove major Iranian entities and individuals from the sanctions list.
4. More fundamentally, Tehran will re-enter the international banking and financial system and sell oil on the global market as the related sanctions will also be lifted.
On the other hand, it demonstrates that:
1. Iran has significantly decreased its installed centrifuges form 19,000 to 7,000 keeping the rest in monitored storage.
2. Tehran has reduced enriched uranium stocks from over 10,000 kilograms to roughly 500kg.
3. Iran is a year away from building an atomic bomb.
4. The core of the Arak heavy water reactor – where plutonium was being produced – has been filled with cement.
5. Iranian scientists have limited their research and development on some aspects of nuclear developments including advanced centrifuges and will continue to limit for the next 10 years.
Unanswered questions
Will Iran continue to comply with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regulations? Will the extra cash, coming out of sanctions relief, trickle down to the Iranian people?
This is a big day for Iranian people as they are celebrating the lifting of sanctions and more fundamentally, the improvement of ties between Washington and Tehran. “The lifting of sanctions is the best political news I have heard in the last three decades,” Haleh, a 49-year-old university professor in Shiraz pointed out. However, unfortunately, Iranian people are less likely to see the economic and political fruits of sanction relief anytime soon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will continue its crack down on any opposition, suppress freedom of speech, expression and press. In addition, most of the financial gains are going to go towards IRGC and Quds Forces because they have monopoly over Iran’s politico-economic establishments.
Will the extra cash, coming out of sanctions relief, trickle down to the Iranian people?
The major loophole is that there exists no adequate UNSC mechanism to roll back sanctions, if Iran chooses to resume its nuclear proliferation. Considering the geopolitical rivalry between the West, Russia and China, getting Moscow and Beijing back on board is not going to be easy.
The U.S. and European countries will have no financial incentive to push for snapping back sanctions, if Iran heads towards building a nuclear bomb. This is due to the fact that the European firms will be investing in the largest untapped emerging market in the world (representing over $1 trillion of value) and American firms will be operating in Iran, using subsidiaries or getting waivers from the U.S. Department of Treasury. More than 190 waivers have already been granted in the U.S. Moreover, the one-year breakout time will not be realistically adequate to react even if the international community caught Iran cheating. Finally, after 10 years, Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium or spin centrifuges at any level that it desires, and the embargo on Iran’s ballistic missile will be lifted. The other question is how will the IAEA inspect all nuclear facilities and verify Iran’s compliance? It is still questionable how the IAEA was capable of inspecting all nuclear facilities in Iran, approve all the aforementioned conditions, and green-light the Islamic Republic’s compliance and intentions in only five months.
Tactical foreign policy shift?
Will lifting of sanctions alter the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, as President Obama has suggested?
If one examines meticulously, all signs suggest that the fundamental pillar of Iran’s foreign policy will remain intact. Even before the nuclear issue, Tehran held the same hegemonic ambitions and pursuit for regional pre-eminence. Iran’s reliance on application of hard power in the region will escalate.
Now, with more dollars in the IRGC treasury and with West leaning towards Tehran, the Islamic Republic will continue – and will be more empowered – to support Assad, the ruling Shiite politicians in Iraq, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Shiite proxies. Diplomacy, tactical and strategic cooperation between Iran and the West will continue to improve. Bilateral trade will increase. However, Iran’s reliance on soft power and diplomacy in the region is worsening. The implementation of this agreement is definitely a day of joy for Iranian leaders (hardliners and moderates) as well as the P5+1. The major question is whether this will mark the beginning of an imminent regional war if Tehran does not alter its policies in the region. It will be more critical to focus on the long-term impact going forward.

The Impact of Saudi-Iran Escalation on Russia’s Syrian Intervention
MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16
In the general picture of the state of affairs of Russia’s Syrian enterprise, we will detect three important factors impacting what we see now. The first is the escalation in the regional conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The second is the internal logic of an event with the magnitude of the military confrontation in Syria which cannot be pre-molded in any predictions and which might be the ultimate test for any planner. And the third is the internal elements shaping perceptions among Syrians in general and their opposition groups in particular in regard to Russia’s role. These three factors inter-react in a fascinating way to draw a picture that should make Moscow’s strategists very uncomfortable.
The plan of Mr. Putin was to move quickly to end his military role but only after improving future prospects of the Syrian State, weakening “Islamist” opposition and reaching a deal on an “equilibrium point” in the future Syria after. This equilibrium hoped for by Moscow is that which preserves the State, directs arms to fighting terrorists, safeguards Russia’s interests and maintains unity and order.
In regard to Russia’s resources, it is safe to assume that President Putin did not plan an open ended military operation in Syria and that he was planning to make a U-Turn at one point, hopefully after few months, and to scale back his exhausting military effort but only after securing his objectives in Syria.
But as is always the case (remember invading Iraq in 2003), things go according to real life’s logic, not according to preplanned schedules. Deepening regional polarization makes Mr. Putin’s Syrian enterprise more risky than ever. By virtue of the bold military role he chose to play, the Russian President showed that he did not fully understand that he may be unintentionally and gradually closing the door on any attempt to make a U-Turn or reduce his military engagement there. Syria is not Grozny. He cannot kill all Syria rebels. He cannot even kill enough of them to guarantee a mission progress within a reasonable timeframe or a triumphant “mission accomplished”.
Escalation in regional tension would definitely be reflected on Syria’s battle fields and the planned transitional talks. In fact, this regional increase in polarization is making the dynamics of the Syrian crisis worse. While the transitional talks may indeed begin, what we detect behind the façade of the ongoing diplomatic preparations is that positions of the relevant parties are hardening quickly. That makes chances of success even lesser than previously thought. Furthermore, the cards of each side are too visible and readable by the other. This is a factor that reflects on the talks as we will explain in a minute.
Furthermore, the Russian blind air campaign in Syria is killing too many civilians to expect any future opposition overture to Moscow in the post Assad Syria. Official statements from Washington indicate that 70% of Russia’s air raids in Syria targeted opposition forces and civilian, not ISIL. The scars of the Russian heavy-handed military intervention are too deep to be forgotten. Brutal force begets radicalization. And indeed, there is a gradual shift within the body of the opposition under the heavy Russian bombardment. It may not be evident in the statements of the leaders of the opposition or their diplomatically sensitive sponsors, but following social media views testifies clearly to that. And this will certainly be reflected on the negotiating table.
On the other hand, Assad forces cannot achieve any strategic advancement in opposition territories. These forces take a village or two and lose a village or two. But there is nothing to reflect Russia’s planners’ earlier assessment–in the beginning of their military operation in Syria-that their forces engagement may take three to four months. The focus of Assad and the Russian forces now seems to be the areas closer to the “Assad’s Syria”, that is the Western part of the country. But we argued previously that this a dead end anyway.
And then comes the “unknown unknowns”. After The incident of downing a Russian jet by Turkey, we may see more of the same. Currently, Kurdish forces are advancing rapidly in ISIL controlled areas, some of which happen to be adjacent to Turkish borders. This may provoke Turkish forces to cross the borders, which in turn will provoke a Russian military reaction. Ankara should be advised to avoid enterring Syria in the current context.
But the unknown unknowns are difficult to predict by virtue of their own “eternal” definition. The general rule however is that in extremely fluid situations like civil wars, no one can see but only the general lines of the structure of the moment and the trends it is pregnant with. In these cases, the space occupied by unpredictable events is particularly important.
In an attempt to keep his road to reduce his military role opened, Putin gave initial greenlight to the opposition delegation formed in Saudi Arabia in the last few weeks, while negotiating with Washington in Geneva some limited modification. The UN Envoy, Staphan de Mistura refused to receive representatives of groups labeled by the Assad regime as “the legitimate opposition”. This “legitimate opposition” is mainly made of organizations built by Assad security lieutenants to replace the real opposition groups in the negotiations. Russia did not insist on including this “legitimate opposition”, while de Mistura refused to see them.
If all details are set aside, we easily see a future path for Russia and Iran in Syria which, if the civil war goes on, cannot be extended by virtue of the objective balance of power. Could it be extended by negotiations? In other words, could what proved to be impossible to achieve militarily be achieved through talks and diplomacy? The modern times Master of Negotiations Dr. Henry Kissinger explained the central role of perceptions in any similar talks. In reality, that is objectively speaking, Russia, Assad and Iran do not stand a serious chance to win in the war fields. So, they will try to win through Syria’s peace process which is about to start. In fact, to get a solution favorite to Russia’s interests and pull out quickly was one of the raison d’etre of the Russian intervention in the first place, that is if a decisive military victory is not achieved fast enough.
Yet, the real balance of power, objectively defined, may be different than the perceptions of it formed in the minds of the concerned parties. The actual balance of power, on regional scale, has been tested here and there for some time. Yet, the energy in the conflict is so overwhelming that a proper analysis of reality is not crystalized distinctively enough in the minds to make these parties change their calculations. This what makes Syria difficult to negotiate.
The trilateral alliance’s (Russia, Assad and Iran) general idea here is to use whatever momentum Russian air raids provided, in addition to international pressure, to try to reach a deal that does not reflect the existing objective shortcomings of their military reach looked at from a longer time perspective. In other words, the three allied forces understand that tomorrow will not be better than today, therefore they will try to reach the best possible deal based on the situation of today. Here, perceptions come to play an important role.
This is why Moscow, which understands the real nature of the dilemma, quietly abandoned the bulk of its outlandish objections to the representatives of some armed groups. This decision came parallel to a series of assassinations of prominent opposition leaders (a less expensive method to shape the opponents). These assassinations were most likely conducted by Assad intelligence services. It was an attempt to “trim” the representation of the opposition and get rid of some of its most recognized faces.
Therefore, we have regional escalation, embittered opposition and unknown unknowns which keep coming. We also have an objective reality that encourages a continuation of the conflict so long as one side believes it will win all, and a daring diplomatic attempt to end the conflict. And we have negotiating parties which seem to read the situation more or less accurately, that is as it is.
The only influenceable element in this equation is that of perceptions (And that is what Putin is trying to do by his forces in Syria). And the proper place for changing perceptions may be the introduction of a factor that comes from the future, not from a potential zero sum game supported on an accurate reading of the situation on the ground. In other words by introducing uncertain and intentionally left ambiguous consequences of failure. This is why such a particular element must be introduced to the current calculations of all participants. And this is the only way to compensate for the lack of global leadership that is capable of forming a wide international coalition to pacify Syria diplomatically.
As it stands now, perceptions pretty much match reality. In other words, we will be entering the negotiations with the cards of each side too visible to the other. Creative ambiguity in words would not be much of a help. Creative ambiguity in future actions may be needed. Conceptually, some element of the equation must be intentionally made unknown or unclear in order to leave the concerned parties in a state of trying to calculate the impact of such future actions on the perceived future course of actions. Without introducing such “unknowns”, the logical base of the talks seems to be shaky at best. Otherwise we are left with a balance of power nit conductive to a deal, and an accurate reading of this fact by all concerned parties.
This might be not sufficient to get the talks to a successful conclusion. But reality is not conductive to success either. And if the future course of events is too clear and easily predictable, there will be nothing much that could save the talks.
Unspecified, or ambiguous, consequences of failure in the transitional process should be waved in front of all parties to influence their perceptions of what may follow failure. But the other half of the cup should be to illustrate as concretely as possible the results of success and how this will achieve the goals of the Syrian revolution. It is important to show, in the first day of the talks, that the Syrian people are indeed the principle beneficent of peace, and to indicate that the truth of what will happen in the talks will be announced to all Syrians and that those who made the talks a success or a failure will be revealed publicly. If it is Assad who would bring the talks to failure, and as he does not care of being condemned globally, the Russians have to make the consequences clear to him beforehand.
As much as possible, the impact of the regional polarization on the talks has to be contained, and the bright and peaceful future for all Syrians should be explained as the promised outcome of a successful transitional talks.
Overall, and from a certain perspective, the Syrian talks will start in the worst possible timing. Yet, it has to be clear to all parties that the suffering of civilians in Syria will not be tolerated any longer. Those around the negotiations table should not be given an easy way out without a deal. The major global parties participating in the talks should indicate that they will be ready to act even militarily to stop the Syrian tragedy if the talks fail to reach a reasonable solution. It is no longer sufficient to limit any role to fighting ISIL. The goal should be peace and freedom to all Syrians. Depriving Syrians from their freedom and peace is the reason ISIL is there in the first place.

Congress Ready to Battle Obama over Iran Sanctions
MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16
Although the Obama Administration has reached a quiet deal with the Iranians over the two recent ballistic missile tests that violate United Nations resolutions, a bipartisan bloc in the US Congress is ready to go to war against the White House over the scheduled lifting of sanctions against Iran. Given the bipartisan skepticism over the Administration’s handling of the negotiations with Tehran, there is a very real prospect that the Congress could impose new sanctions or enforcement demands on Iran that would pass by a veto-proof majority.
The biggest leverage that the Obama Administration has to push back against the Congressional revolt is the fact that Iran did ship 25,000 pounds of enriched uranium to Russia, as part of its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the P5+1 deal. By late January, Iran could complete the other remaining requirements, including the reconfiguring of the Arak heavy water reactor, to prevent the production of plutonium, and the introduction of new, intrusive IAEA inspections. At that point, President Obama would begin to issue waivers on existing US sanctions, at the same time that the United Nations is prepared to lift sanctions. Opponents call this looming deadline “Implementation Day.”
Despite this, Iran has conducted two ballistic missile tests—in October and November 2015—that violated UN Security Council resolutions, and US Congressional opponents of the P5+1 deal have seized upon these violations to press for both new sanctions and a ten year extension of existing sanctions against Iran. Several new pieces of Congressional legislation, introduced just before the end of last year, zero in on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and call for new sanctions against IRGC business collaborators. These legislations will gain more momentum after recent IRGC provocations in the Gulf against US Navy vessels.
Those “indirect sanctions,” along with the visa restrictions passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama before the Christmas-New Year recess, could impact as many as 38 US allies. Already the Iranian Foreign Ministry has issued a blistering response to the visa restrictions, which impact anyone travelled to Iran, Iraq, Syria or Sudan in the past five years. The Iranians claim the new law violates the P5+1 deal. Obama Administration officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry, have tried to assure Tehran that the measures are directed against the Islamic State, and will not impede US-Iranian business activities. Just before the year-end recess, three bills were introduced into the US House, all of which target the IRGC—and the P5+1 deal. Opponents of the Obama-Tehran deal see these legislative initiatives as powerful tools to block Iran agreements.
Rep. Devin Nunes, Chairman of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, has introduced H.R. 4257, the IRGC Sanctions Act, blocking President Obama from removing Iran from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, and restricting all US business dealings with the IRGC and its front companies and business agents. It would, in effect, block Obama or any future president from lifting trade sanctions against Iran. Nunes has 26 co-sponsors on the bill.
H.R. 4258—the Quarantining the Ayatollah’s State Sponsored Aggression and Militancy Act (“QASSAM Act”)—imposes new sanctions on any entities with 20 percent or more IRGC ownership. Under the Ahmadinejad regime, IRGC virtually took over the Iranian economy, through majority holdings in all essential corporations. The bill would also mandate divestment of all Federal, state and local government dealings with individuals trading with IRGC fronts.
The IRGC Sanctions Implementation and Review Act would authorize the US Comptroller of the Currency to provide annual reports to the President and Congress on all individuals and entities doing business with the IRGC, and would allow the Comptroller to receive information from both government agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The Act would force the President to grant waivers, permitting business transactions with IRGC partners.
The Senate is close to passing veto-proof legislation that would further push back against President Obama’s rush to open business with Iran and unfreeze assets. A powerful bipartisan group of Senators, including the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Ben Cardin, is promoting a ten year extension on the original Iran Sanctions Act, which would extend the bill to 2026. The bill is sponsored by Senators Robert Menendez and Mark Kirk, and has the backing of two Republican presidential candidates—Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is also supporting the Kirk-Menendez bill in principle.
The Senate bill would require four Democratic votes to secure a veto-proof majority, and Menendez and Cardin are already on board, and two other Democratic Senators, Chris Coons of Delaware and Gary Peters of Michigan have indicated their support for the idea of sanctions extension.
For the moment, the Obama Administration’s behind-the-scenes deal with Tehran over restrictions on future ballistic missile tests (see last week’s MEB) is delaying immediate Congressional action. But Congressional leaders vow that there will be action taken up in the first two months of the 2016 session. Any action by Iran, whether a new missile test, an aggression against US interests in Iraq or elsewhere, or any act of international terrorism attributed to the IRGC, would trigger a firestorm on Capitol Hill, one that Obama, who is already a lame-duck and has been widely criticized as a weak leader, would have a hard time putting out.

JSOC “Decapitation” Program Hits ISIL Command
MEB/Middle East Briefing/January 17/16
In December, MEB highlighted the significance of the announcement by US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter of the deployment of 200 US commandos from the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) to Iraq and Syria, to join the fight against the Islamic State (ISIL). At the time, we noted that these special counter-terror teams would be operating independent of the Iraqi Armed Forces, as self-standing “decapitation” units, targeting leaders of the Islamic State on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border.
In the aftermath of the Nov. 13 Paris attacks and the subsequent shootings in San Bernardino, California, the JSOC teams increased their operating tempo and have now succeeded in killing a number of top Islamic State leaders, including the mastermind of the Paris attacks. Col. Steve Warren confirmed, in a Dec. 29 Pentagon briefing, that a JSOC operation had killed Charaffe al Mouadan on Dec. 24, at an undisclosed location inside Syrian territory. Mouadan was identified as the planner of the Nov. 13 Paris attacks and was in direct contact with the leader of the Paris attacks, Abdel Hamid Abaaoud.
Mouadan and nine other “high value” ISIL figures were killed in drone strikes in Syria and Iraq, between Dec. 7 and 27, all as the result of the JSOC operations.
JSOC teams have been able to develop a more precise map of the Islamic State leadership and vital personnel, and have greatly increased the speed in which actionable intelligence has been used to hit priority decapitation targets in ISIL strongholds.
Other key ISIL figures who have been killed in the December drone strikes, called in by JSOC teams on the ground in Iraq and Syria, included Siful Haque Sujan, a British-trained computer hacker who was identified as a key figure in the Islamic State’s cyber warfare structures; Abu Anas, a key demolition expert and explosives manufacturer; and Yunis Khalash, the deputy emir of the Islamic State for finance. Several other, unnamed top cyber operatives for ISIL have also been killed in the targeted drone strikes.
The Pentagon’s assessment of the first month of the JSOC “decapitation program” is that it has begun to shift the balance against the Islamic State. ISIL leadership is, for the first time, concerned that their organizational profile has been successfully penetrated and that key individuals are more vulnerable to assassination. This is impacting the ability of the Islamic State to manage its territories and maintain the recently-launched global terrorist offensive. Some of the individuals killed in the targeted strikes are considered by Pentagon intelligence analysts to be “indispensable” to the functioning of the group. “The drone kills have been successful because they are based on perfect intelligence,” one official noted. The JSOC teams, operating independent of any reliance on poorly sourced intelligence, coming from Iraqi and Syrian sources, and with real-time ability to call in drone strikes, have been able to carry out precision strikes that depend on pinpoint timing.
The US JSOC deployments are not the only “decapitation” actions underway in Iraq and Syria. On Dec. 25, a Russian or Syrian missile hit a meeting of the Islam Army (Jaish al-Islam) in the Eastern Ghouta region of Syria just outside of Damascus, killing a number of leaders of the Saudi-backed group, including the group’s undisputed leader Zahran Alloush. In July 2012, Islam Army, then known as the Islam Brigade (Liwa al-Islam), had grabbed headlines by claiming credit for the killing of a number of top Syrian national security officials, in a bombing at the National Security Office in Damascus.
Under the terms of the United Nations Security Council resolutions, that were passed unanimously in mid-December, a meeting of the Vienna group with leaders of both the Syrian opposition and Syrian government representatives is scheduled in Geneva on Jan. 16-17. The intent is to negotiate terms of a cease-fire involving government and rebel forces, excluding the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra.

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.january18.16.htm

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