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Bible Quotations For Today
No one can receive anything except what has been given from heaven.
"Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 03/22-30: "After this Jesus and his disciples went into the Judean countryside, and he spent some time there with them and baptized. John also was baptizing at Aenon near Salim because water was abundant there; and people kept coming and were being baptized John, of course, had not yet been thrown into prison. Now a discussion about purification arose between John’s disciples and a Jew. They came to John and said to him, ‘Rabbi, the one who was with you across the Jordan, to whom you testified, here he is baptizing, and all are going to him.’ John answered, ‘No one can receive anything except what has been given from heaven. You yourselves are my witnesses that I said, "I am not the Messiah, but I have been sent ahead of him." He who has the bride is the bridegroom. The friend of the bridegroom, who stands and hears him, rejoices greatly at the bridegroom’s voice. For this reason my joy has been fulfilled. He must increase, but I must decrease."

Satan disguises himself as an angel of light. So it is not strange if his ministers also disguise themselves as ministers of righteousness
"Second Letter to the Corinthians 11/07-15: "Did I commit a sin by humbling myself so that you might be exalted, because I proclaimed God’s good news to you free of charge? I robbed other churches by accepting support from them in order to serve you. And when I was with you and was in need, I did not burden anyone, for my needs were supplied by the friends who came from Macedonia. So I refrained and will continue to refrain from burdening you in any way. As the truth of Christ is in me, this boast of mine will not be silenced in the regions of Achaia. And why? Because I do not love you? God knows I do! And what I do I will also continue to do, in order to deny an opportunity to those who want an opportunity to be recognized as our equals in what they boast about. For such boasters are false apostles, deceitful workers, disguising themselves as apostles of Christ. And no wonder! Even Satan disguises himself as an angel of light. So it is not strange if his ministers also disguise themselves as ministers of righteousness. Their end will match their deeds."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 12-13.16.htm
Why so many Lebanese are looking abroad/Mona Alami/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
Lebanon’s political paralysis exacerbated by Saudi-Iran spat/Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/January 12/16
Turkey: Is It Religiously All Right to Lust for My Daughter/Burak Bekdil//© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 12/16
ISIS Followers Plan to Take over Gaza Strip/Khaled Abu Toameh/© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 12/16
US presidential candidates weigh in on Russia, Putin, Middle East/Laura Rozen/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
Could Iran-Saudi conflict provide Turkey 'graceful exit' from Syria/Pinar Tremblay/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
Potential solutions to Egypt-Ethiopia dam dispute remain murky/Ayah Aman/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
Why Syria will pay for Iran-Saudi rift/Saheb Sadeghi/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
You are either with us, or against us/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
In Iran, old habits die hard/Mohammed Alyahya/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
Madaya siege marks Hezbollah’s eternal disgrace/Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
North Korea and the strategic distraction/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
The war of assassinations in Syria/Had Haid/Now Lebanon/January 12/16
Impending lifting of Iran sanctions worries Israel/Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/January 12/16

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january 12-13.16.htm
Report: Swap Takes Place Overnight between Hizbullah, Syrian Opposition in Zabadani
Change and Reform: Our Participation in Cabinet Session Hinges on Consultations
Mashnouq Tackles Aoun Nomination with Geagea, Rules Out Speedy Election of President
Saadiyat Prayer Hall 'Shot at' during Presence of Hizbullah Official
Mustaqbal: Hizbullah, FPM, Iran Fully Responsible for Presidential Void
Hizbullah Deplores Turkey, Iraq Blasts, Slams Those Criticizing It for 'Fighting Terror in Syria'
Syrian Held in Nabatiyeh over Terror Ties, Arms Trade
Human Rights Watch: Lebanese Residency Laws Put Syrians at Risk
Lebanon Hopes for Additional Funding at Syria Donors Conference
Cabinet on Track of Resuming Functions amid Pledge to Meet FPM Demands
IS Militant Using 'British Phone Number' Held in Lebanon
Why so many Lebanese are looking abroad
Lebanon’s political paralysis exacerbated by Saudi-Iran spat

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january 12-13.16.htm
Kurdish YPG Forces Attack Assyrians in Syria, 1 Assyrian, 3 Kurds Killed
Canada condemns terrorist attack in Istanbul, Turkey
Turkish, PM: Istanbul suicide bomber was ISIS militant
Blast in Istanbul tourist district kills at least 10 people
U.N. Warns 'Many More Will Die' if Syria Sieges are Not Lifted
Suffering in Besieged Madaya Has No Precedent in Syria War, Says U.N.
U.N. Syria Envoy to Meet Security Council Powers
Putin: Premature to Speak of Asylum for Assad
Syria Opposition Condemns Istanbul Suicide Bombing
Sweden Wants Probe in Israel Killing of Palestinians in Recent Months
Three Palestinians Shot Dead by Israelis during Unrest
Israel Gets Fifth German Submarine
Europe Rights Court Condemns Turkey for Dissolving Pro-Kurdish Party
U.S. says two Navy boats in Iranian custody

Report: Swap Takes Place Overnight between Hizbullah, Syrian Opposition in Zabadani
Naharnet/January 12/16/A swap took place overnight between Hizbullah and rebel fighters in Syria's al-Zabadani region, revealed LBCI television on Tuesday. It said that the exchange saw the release of the corpses of a Hizbullah member and a Syrian soldier. A Syrian officer was also released from captivity.
In return, the rebels received the corpses of seven members of the Ahrar al-Sham group, said LBCI. The identities of the corpses and the detainee were not disclosed. A swap had taken place in Zabadani in December, which saw the evacuation of over 120 rebels from the area through Lebanon to Turkey.
Simultaneously, two planes took off from Turkey's Hatay airport to Beirut, carrying 335 people evacuated from the mainly Shiite Syrian villages of Fuaa and Kafraya. Syria's regime has agreed to several ceasefires with rebel groups in the past but December's evacuation plan was one of the most elaborate in the nearly five-year war. It was the first to involve crossing through Turkey and Lebanon. Fuaa and Kafraya have been besieged for months by the rebels. Pro-government forces and Hizbullah launched an offensive to try to recapture Zabadani in July, prompting a rebel alliance -- including members of al-Nusra Front -- to besiege the Idlib villages of Fuaa and Kafraya. Hizbullah has sent thousands of fighters across the border to support Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces against the Islamist-led militants fighting to topple him. The group's intervention has helped the Syrian army recapture most towns in the Qalamoun region near the border with Lebanon. Hundreds of Hizbullah fighters have been reportedly killed in the conflict to date. In total, more than 240,000 people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began in March 2011 with anti-government protests.

Change and Reform: Our Participation in Cabinet Session Hinges on Consultations
Naharnet/January 12/16/The Change and Reform bloc did not announce on Tuesday whether it will attend Thursday's cabinet session at the Grand Serail. Former Minister Salim Jreissati said: “Our participation in the meeting hinges on the consultations that will take place ahead of the session.”He made his remarks after the bloc's weekly meeting. “In order to reactivate the cabinet, we should have a government,” added Jreissati. “Some members of cabinet should not usurp the government's decisions,” he continued. The government is scheduled to meet on Thursday amid concerns that the Change and Reform bloc would not attend over its insistence to resolve the dispute over its decision-making mechanism and the disagreement over the security appointments. The mechanism has been at the heart of disputes linked to the cabinet throughout 2015 in light of the vacuum in the presidency. Lebanon has been without a head of a state since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. The vacuum has weighed heavily on the functioning of cabinet and parliament.

Mashnouq Tackles Aoun Nomination with Geagea, Rules Out Speedy Election of President
Naharnet/January 12/16/Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq held talks Tuesday with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and noted that the election of a president needs a “regional-international decision that is not available now.”“The visit is part of the necessary consultations with the doctor (Geagea) but we must all admit that the country is going through several and not one political storm,” said Mashnouq after a two-hour meeting in Maarab. “The discussions focused on the need for patience and calm and for finding mutual solutions, given the common and long political history between us,” Mashnouq added. In response to a reporter's question, the minister revealed that the talks did tackle reports suggesting that Geagea might soon endorse Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun's presidential nomination. “That's why I said that we are going in a period of political storms that require caution and that we don't need further confrontations,” Mashnouq went on to say. Asked whether it is possible to elect a president soon, the minister noted that “the election of the Lebanese president requires a regional-international decision that is not available at the moment.” “There is no window of opportunity at the moment and the internal dialogue will not lead to the election of a new president unless it is accompanied by a regional-international decision. The problem is in the decision not in dialogue,” Mashnouq added. “The regional-international decision for the election of a president is not ripe at the moment, despite all of what is being said in this regard,” he stressed. Later on Tuesday, MTV quoted Geagea as telling Mashnouq that "no matter how much the approach on the presidential issue differs, Saad Hariri and Mustaqbal will always come first in the LF's calculations."Recent media reports have suggested that Geagea might soon announce his support for Aoun's presidential bid in response to al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri's nomination of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the country's top Christian post. Hariri's initiative ran aground in recent weeks after it was met with reservations from the country's main Christian parties as well as Aoun's main ally Hizbullah.

Saadiyat Prayer Hall 'Shot at' during Presence of Hizbullah Official
Naharnet/January 12/16/A prayer hall came under gunfire Tuesday in the coastal Saadiyat area south of Beirut during the presence of a local Hizbullah official in it, state-run National News Agency reported. “Unknown gunmen opened fire from a car at a prayer hall in the Saadiyat area as the region's Hizbullah official was praying inside,” NNA said. “An army force immediately deployed in the region and launched a crackdown,” the agency added. Meanwhile, MTV quoted “the town's imam” as saying that the shots were not fire at the prayer hall. “What happened was firing in the air at the hands of unknown gunmen from a car that passed in the area,” the imam said. The area had witnessed heavy clashes between supporters of al-Mustaqbal movement and members of the Hizbullah-affiliated Resistance Brigades in July 2015 in which scores of people were injured.

Mustaqbal: Hizbullah, FPM, Iran Fully Responsible for Presidential Void
Naharnet/January 12/16/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc noted Tuesday that Hizbullah, the Free Patriotic Movement and Tehran are to blame for the presidential vacuum crisis that has been running since May 2014. “The bloc reiterates its insistence on the election of a president as soon as possible in order to end the presidential void in the country and pave the way for restoring the role and work of state institutions,” said the bloc in a statement issued after its weekly meeting.“In this regard, the bloc holds Hizbullah and the FPM, and behind them Iran, fully responsible for the presidential vacuum crisis and all of its dangerous aspects and repercussions,” it added. The country's top Christian post has been vacant since the end of president Michel Suleiman's term on May 25, 2014 due to electoral rivalry and political disagreements among the parties. The MPs of Hizbullah, the FPM and some of their allies have been boycotting parliamentary sessions aimed at electing a new president, demanding a prior agreement on the candidate who would be elected. Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri had recently launched an initiative involving the election of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. But Hariri's move ran aground after it was met with reservations from the country's main Christian parties as well as Hizbullah. “The insistence of Hizbullah, backed by Iran, on the approach of illegitimate arms and its attempt to impose political hegemony over Lebanon and the Lebanese ... is the main reason behind the dire situations in the country,” the bloc said in its statement on Tuesday. It noted, however, that it will continue to “cling to the approach of dialogue” with the party out of its “profound understanding of Lebanon's unique formula that is based on coexistence and its faith in the civil state.” Turning to the issue of the resumption of cabinet sessions, Mustaqbal stressed that “any party that tries to impose crippling conditions and practice blackmail would be committing a grave crime against Lebanon and the Lebanese and their interests.”

Hizbullah Deplores Turkey, Iraq Blasts, Slams Those Criticizing It for 'Fighting Terror in Syria'
Naharnet/January 12/16/Hizbullah strongly condemned Tuesday the deadly bombings that hit Istanbul and several Iraqi areas in the past two days while noting that “terror cannot be fought through condemning those who are combating it in Syria.”“The terrorism that is striking everywhere regardless of any borders or restrictions requires all countries, organizations, bodies and individuals to close ranks in its face and to exhaust all possible efforts to prevent its proliferation,” said the party in a statement issued only hours after an Islamic State suicide bomber killed 10 people in Turkey's Istanbul. “It has started to threaten the entire region and the world and its danger is not limited to one category of people,” Hizbullah added. Calling for “paying attention to the real sources of terrorism,” the party warned against “stirring sideline crises aimed at dissipating efforts and disarraying concerns in a manner that allows terror to spread and proliferate.”Referring to its military role alongside President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria, Hizbullah said “terror cannot be fought through condemning those who are combating it in Syria.”“Those who deserve condemnation are those who are supporting terrorism at the financial, ideological, political and military levels,” the party said. “They bear the full direct and indirect responsibility for terrorism and its dirty deeds,” it added.

Syrian Held in Nabatiyeh over Terror Ties, Arms Trade
Naharnet/January 12/16/A Syrian man was arrested Tuesday in the southern region of Nabatiyeh on charges of having ties to terrorist groups and involvement in illegal arms trade, state-run National News Agency reported. “As part of its monitoring of the activities of terrorist groups and suspicious individuals, the Nabatiyeh Department of the State Security directorate has arrested Syrian national M. J., 25,” NNA said. The man is suspected of “having ties to terrorist groups and being involved in arms trade with individuals operating outside Lebanon,” the agency added. An investigation has since been launched in coordination with the relevant judicial authorities.

Human Rights Watch: Lebanese Residency Laws Put Syrians at Risk
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 12/16/Human Rights Watch said on Tuesday that Lebanese residency laws are putting Syrian refugees in danger, arguing that the policies "set the stage for a potentially explosive situation." The regulations, adopted a year ago, have forced refugees to either return to Syria, where they are at risk of persecution, torture or death, or to stay in Lebanon illegally, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation and abuse, the rights group said in a report. Of the 40 refugees interviewed for the report, only two have been able to renew their residencies since January 2015. “These residency regulations are making life impossible for refugees in Lebanon and are pushing them underground,” said Nadim Houry, deputy Middle East director. “The last thing Lebanon needs is a large, undocumented community living at the margins of society, at heightened risk of abuse.” “Lebanon’s shortsighted policies are setting the stage for a potentially explosive situation,” Houry said. “With international help, Lebanon should adopt policies that allow Syrian refugees to keep their legal status in the country and live in dignity. This is not only the minimum standard for treating refugees, it will also promote stability in the country by regularizing their presence.” Last week, Lebanon forcefully repatriated 407 Syrians after they were left stranded at Beirut airport. Amnesty International called the action "an outrageous breach of Lebanon's international obligations." Lebanon is home to over a million refugees fleeing Syria's civil war.

Lebanon Hopes for Additional Funding at Syria Donors Conference
Naharnet/January 12/16/Lebanese officials are all hopes that the international community would help Lebanon confront the Syrian refugee crisis during a donors conference set to be held in London next month. Social Affairs Minister Rashid Derbas said that a meeting for the ministerial refugee affairs committee chaired by Prime Minister Tammam Salam on Monday tackled Lebanon's demands to confront the crisis. “Lebanon had submitted during previous conferences a document on its most important needs to confront this crisis. Some amendments have been introduced to it,” he told al-Joumhouria newspaper published on Tuesday. The February 4 conference mainly aims to raise new funding to meet the needs of all those affected by the Syria crisis within the country itself and by supporting neighboring countries. It also aims to help create the right conditions inside Syria, including in education, so the refugees can resume normal lives when they return home. Derbas said that the international community has not provided Lebanon all of its needs. But “we will continue to try because we have nothing to lose.” Lebanon hosts around 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Syria's war has killed more than 260,000 people and forced millions from their homes.

Cabinet on Track of Resuming Functions amid Pledge to Meet FPM Demands
Naharnet/January 12/16/A cabinet session scheduled to be held on Thursday is likely to be productive after the Free Patriotic Movement received pledges that officials will work to resolve the security and military appointments crisis. Prime Minister Tammam Salam's visitors quoted him as saying that all factions represented in the government “will attend the session, which will be productive.”“All the articles on its agenda will also be approved,” he said, according to the visitors who spoke to al-Joumhouria daily. The items on the cabinet's agenda are not controversial, Salam added. His remarks came following the 13th round of national dialogue that was held under Speaker Nabih Berri's chairmanship in Ain el-Tineh on Monday. Salam described the talks as “one of the most successful (sessions held) so far.” Its participants are aware of the dangerous situation in the country and the need to activate the work of the government to confront the developments, said Salam. According to An Nahar newspaper, the FPM hinted during the national dialogue session that it is willing to attend the cabinet meeting. But it spoke of “obstacles” that it hoped would be resolved by Thursday. The daily quoted ministerial sources as saying that the 13th round of talks paved way for the resumption of the cabinet's activities, adding that discussions are being held among top officials on the controversial issue of appointments in the military council to meet the demands of the FPM. The cabinet last met in December to approve a plan to export Lebanon's waste. But it has failed to hold regular sessions since September because of the dispute on the decision-making mechanism in the absence of a president and the FPM demand for the appointment of high-ranking military and security officials.

IS Militant Using 'British Phone Number' Held in Lebanon
Naharnet/January 12/16/A Syrian Islamic State militant has been arrested in Lebanon at the hands of the General Directorate of State Security, state-run National News Agency reported on Tuesday. “State Security's Mount Lebanon department has arrested the Syrian O. H. on charges of belonging to the IS group,” NNA said. The man used a “fake ID” to move from a Lebanese area to another after entering the country illegally, the agency added. The militant was also “communicating with the group's emir in (Syria's) Raqa through a British phone number that he had been provided with,” NNA said. The IS had claimed responsibility for twin suicide bombings that killed 44 people in the southern Beirut suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh on November 12. On November 15, Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq said security forces had arrested 11 people, mostly Syrians, over the bombings.

Why so many Lebanese are looking abroad
Mona Alami/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/01/12/mona-alamial-monitor-why-so-many-lebanese-are-looking-abroad/
A worsening economic situation with increasing poverty and unemployment are pushing many Lebanese toward immigration, looking for better prospects either in the West or in Gulf countries.
“There is no more hope in Lebanon,” said Charbel Lahoud, an agricultural engineer with an MBA who is preparing his papers to emigrate to Europe.Statistics support Lahoud’s grim outlook. According to Information International, about 34% of Lebanese were looking to leave Lebanon in 2015.
“The statistics are actually much higher,” Mohammad Chamsedine, researcher at Information International, told Al-Monitor. “If we take in account the fact that about 25% of the population is already outside the country, this means that over 50% of the population is either looking to leave the country or is already living abroad,” Chamsedine added. A growing number of nationals are trying to reach Europe or Australia in boats. In October 2015, seven people from the Safwan family drowned when their boat capsized on the way to Europe from nearby Turkey. In another incident in September 2013, some 60 Lebanese drowned while trying to reach Australia from Indonesia. According to Chamsedine, the meteoric rise in immigration began in 2010. Lebanon has historically seen high immigration. According to figures provided by Information International, in 2014, about 1.3 million Lebanese out of a 5.2 million population were already living abroad. These figures only include holders of Lebanese nationality while excluding people of Lebanese descent and who do not hold Lebanese citizenship. This population mostly resides in South America.
Immigration levels, which steadily grew during Lebanon's civil war (1975-1989), slowed between 1993 and 2010, a time marked by relative economic stability.“From the year 1992 until 2014, the number of Lebanese who left Lebanon was about 508,407 people,” Chamsedine said. Immigration levels picked up again in 2011-2013. The number of Lebanese who left during this period was at 174,704, with an average annual rate of 58,234, compared to 14,500 for the 1993 to 2010 period, the researcher explained. The Lebanese government has done little to end the brain drain. An official source in the Ministry of Social Affairs told Al-Monitor that the issue is becoming “a priority and that the ministry has put in place developmental projects that could help put an end to it.”
Others interviewed by Al-Monitor were nonetheless skeptical. “We are in a state of a political cold war. Things are not moving; everyone is in a wait-and-see approach,” Lahoud said, referring to the impact of regional sectarian tensions, which have paralyzed both the government and the presidency.
Lebanon has been without a president for one year and eight months, since the end of the mandate of President Michel Suleiman in May 2014. Prime Minister Tammam Salam even stated on Dec. 15, 2015, that the paralyzed government was “worthless,” as political deadlock has prevented the Cabinet from meeting regularly. Institutional and economic decay has pushed Lebanese from all walks of life to seek better opportunities in faraway lands. Interestingly, Chamsedine noted, in 2014, the proportion of Muslims who wished to immigrate became higher than that of their Christian counterparts. In effect, about 24% of Maronite respondents said they were considering im, in comparison to 43% of Sunnis and 50% of Alawites. In addition, the large majority of people who wanted to emigrate were highly educated, representing 46% of the total of respondents.
Several reasons can explain the Lebanese nationals’ eagerness to leave their home country. Marwan Nuwayhid, a journalist who was living in Dubai and is now temporarily in Lebanon, explained that there are limited career opportunities for Lebanese in their home country. He told Al-Monitor, “Career progression has become very difficult in Lebanon. One can grow more in Dubai because of the number of multinationals operating there and the economic stability.”This opinion is shared by Lahoud, who underlined that in Lebanon, “It takes a very long time to go up the corporate ladder and it is extremely difficult without the right connections.”Other reasons mentioned by those interviewed by Al-Monitor were a general dearth of motivation and the lack of respect many employers have for employees. Maria, a young banker who wished to remain anonymous, said large Lebanese companies rarely show appreciation for their employees, who are often treated with little respect. “At least in France or America, employees have rights and they are treated equally whatever their background is,” Lahoud added.
Greater financial reward is another important motivator for Lebanese seeking employment abroad. Nuwayhid explained that local jobs barely cover people’s basic needs. Tarek Baz, who earned a business degree but works as a salesperson for a distribution company, said that he was offered a salary four times his current one if he immigrated. “It makes a big difference when you have a family,” he told Al-Monitor. Nuwayhid believes that those residing in Lebanon can rarely afford to buy a house and have to live with their parents. Lahoud agrees, adding, “I have not achieved as much as my friends in the same age group who left Lebanon, whether from an employment or a social perspective. My friends have made enough money to afford to buy a house and get married, which is not the case for most people in Lebanon.”However, some in Lebanon say that family responsibilities or social ties keep them here. Baz said that in spite of the interesting offers and political instability, he is still hesitant to leave, as he feels he will miss the social and family relations he still enjoys here.
Others, like banker Maya Chehayeb, say they cannot leave for family reasons. She pointed out to Al-Monitor, “Besides the fact that I do not want to start from zero, I also have family responsibilities, namely toward my parents, whom I do not want to leave behind.”Worsening living conditions are making things more difficult for Lebanese who want to remain. Lebanon has been facing a waste crisis since August 2015, one Health Minister Wael Abou Faour labeled a potential “health catastrophe.” The government finally agreed in September 2015 to ship its waste to a location that has not been revealed, but the plan has yet to be implemented. “Deciding to stay in Lebanon means giving up on your standard of living, and [fewer and fewer] people are willing to do that, especially if they have experienced another lifestyle elsewhere,” Nuwayhid said.

Lebanon’s political paralysis exacerbated by Saudi-Iran spat
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/January 12/16
Beirut: Can Lebanon elect a head-of-state in the middle of the Saudi-Iranian spat and is Sa’ad Hariri, perhaps with Saudi assistance, seeking to break the Aoun-Geagea monopoly on the country’s Christian representation? Beirut’s rumors mill, which are rich in quantity though seldom accurate in content, have raised these key questions allegedly because the former prime minister was anxious to pave the way for Christian figures other than Lebanese Forces Leader and presidential hopeful Samir Geagea to receive Saudi Arabia’s blessing. Unnamed sources told Naharnet that Hariri encouraged former President Michel Sulaiman to visit the Kingdom on Sunday, ostensibly to send a signal to Geagea that if the latter contemplated an alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement’s Michel Aoun, also a presidential candidate, that he, Hariri, could cajole Riyadh to open its doors to other Christian figures.
The rumor was far-fetched for at least three reasons: first, because Saudi officials have repeatedly said that they would accept any leader chosen by the Maronite leadership; second, that whoever emerged must inevitably be backed by Geagea given his popularity and that they, the Saudis, backed him; and third, because Sulaiman was not anyone’s lackey. What is clear, however, was that both Geagea and Aoun were working to end Franjieh’s candidacy. Their consultations over the weekend also seemed aimed at keeping the March 14 coalition, which includes the Lebanese Forces as well as the Future Movement, intact. They also seem to want to end Druze leader, Walid Junblatt’s, king-maker role in selecting a president. Few predicted the political vacuum that descended on Lebanon after May 24, 2014 when Sulaiman ended his 6-year term of office. Since then, an overwhelming 35 parliamentary sessions failed to elect a leader as the decision relied heavily on regional politics, specifically the war in Syria. The anti-Syrian March 14 alliance has nominated Geagea for the vacancy while the pro-Syrian March 8 alliance, which Hezbollah is a part of, wants Aoun for the position. Several weeks into his “Hail Mary” initiative to end the political impasse, Hariri is suggesting an alternative candidate: Marada Movement Chief Sulaiman Franjieh, a close friend of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. Lebanon’s Christians overwhelmingly opposed his nomination, effectively ending the initiative. The election of a president in Lebanon was difficult even before recent tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and observers believe it will only be more difficult now.

Kurdish YPG Forces Attack Assyrians in Syria, 1 Assyrian, 3 Kurds Killed
Posted 2016-01-12/Gabriel Henry David, an Assyrian fighter killed in the attack by Kurdish YPG forces on Assyrian forces in Qamishli, Syria. Qamishli, Syria (AINA) -- Members of the YPG Kurdish militia conducted a surprise attack on Assyrian checkpoints in the Al-Wusta district of Qamishli, which is a predominantly Assyrian area. The checkpoints are manned by the Sootoro/GPF Assyrian security forces and were setup after three Assyrian restaurants were bombed on December 20, 2016 (AINA 2015-12-30), which killed 14 Assyrians. The Kurdish attack lasted for one hour, with heavy exchange of machine gun fire between the Assyrian Protection Force (Sootoro) and the YPG militia. 1 Assyrian fighter was killed, identified as Gabriel Henry David, and 3 Assyrians fighters were injured. According to reports, 3 Kurdish YPG fighters were killed in the clashes. The Assyrian Protection Forces are affiliated with the Syrian National Defense Forces. The YPG militia has previously made several attempts to take control of Al-Wusta but have been stopped by Sootoro. As recently as two weeks ago, Kurdish YPG militia directed their weapons against the Sootoro fighters but fighting was averted at the last moment. After the restaurant bombings many Assyrian residents of Qamishli suspected the YPG militia to be the real culprit, not ISIS. There was no credible claim of responsibility by ISIS, only a vague statement in a scarcely used social media account. Although one of the bombings was reported to be a suicide attack, it is now known that all three bombings were by a bag placed in each restaurant. This attack on Assyrian checkpoints has only increased the suspicion by Assyrians that it was the YPG that was behind the restaurant bombings. The attack is seen as an attempt by the YPG to take control of Qamishli and not allow Assyrians any control over their own territories. Qamishli has a population of 185,000 Assyrians, Kurds, Arabs and Armenians, with nearly 50,000 Assyrians.

Canada condemns terrorist attack in Istanbul, Turkey
January 12, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Canada strongly condemns the terrorist attack that took place today in the Sultanahmet district of Istanbul, Turkey.
“Canada stands with the Turkish people in the global struggle against terrorism in all its forms.
“On behalf of all Canadians, I offer my sincere condolences to the families and friends of those killed and wish a speedy recovery to the injured.”

Turkish, PM: Istanbul suicide bomber was ISIS militant
By Al Arabiya with Agencies, Istanbul Tuesday, 12 January 2016/The Istanbul suicide bombing that left 10 people dead, mostly Germans, was carried out by a militant from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) extremist group, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Tuesday. “We have determined that the perpetrator of the attack is a foreigner who is a member of Daesh,” Davutoglu said in Ankara, using an Arabic acronym for ISIS. Germany's foreign minister says eight Germans are among the dead in an Istanbul bombing and nine others are wounded, some seriously. A Turkish official had earlier said that nine Germans had died. The reason for the discrepancy was not immediately clear. Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had earlier confirmed the bomber was a Syrian. “I strongly condemn the terror attack which was carried out by a suicide bomber of Syrian origin,” Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara in his first reaction to the blast. “Unfortunately... there are fatalities, including locals and foreigners. This incident showed again we have to stand together in the face of terror.”“Turkey’s determined position will not change. We don’t make any difference between the names or abbreviations (of terror groups).”“The first target of all the terror groups active in this region is Turkey. Because Turkey fights them all with the same determination,” he added. Turkey has been on high alert after a series of attacks blamed on ISIS including a double suicide bombing in the capital Ankara in October that left 103 people dead. Turkish authorities have in recent weeks detained several suspected ISIS members with officials saying they were planning attacks in Istanbul. But Turkey is also waging an all-out assault on the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which Ankara and its Western allies classify as a terror group. A Kurdish splinter group, the the Freedom Falcons of Kurdistan (TAK) claimed a mortar attack on Istanbul's second international airport on December 23 which killed a female cleaner and damaged several planes. Meanwhile the banned ultra-left Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) has also staged a string of usually small-scale attacks in Istanbul over the last months.
German, Norwegian tourists
Turkey’s CNN Turk television said that foreign tourists from Germany and Norway are among those wounded in the central Istanbul explosion. An official from one tour company who declined to be identified told Reuters that a tourist group from Germany was in the area at the time of the blast, but it was unclear whether any of them had been hurt. Investigations were being conducted into the type of explosive which caused the blast and those responsible, the governor's office statement said. A witness and police officer at the central Istanbul Sultanahmet square, a major tourist attraction, reported seeing body parts after the blast, Reuters news agency reported. Eyewitnesses told Al Arabiya News the explosion was so loud and strong that it was heard from several kilometers away, and many tourists were left in shock. The blast caused a one-meter-deep crater, according to the media reports. Turkish police sealed off the square as ambulances rushed to the scene of the explosion. Sultanahmet square, close to the Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia, in a major tourist area of Turkey's most populous city. Police secure the area after an explosion near the Ottoman-era Sultanahmet mosque, known as Blue mosque in Istanbul. (Reuters). According to the initial unconfirmed reports from state-run television TRT based on eyewitnesses, the explosion was allegedly caused by a suicide bomber. Police forces have reportedly found mechanical parts in the area that further confirm the use of suicide bomber tactics. Yesterday, Turkish police arrested 3 suspects in Diyarbakir, connected to ISIS, claiming that they were about to launch an attack in southeastern province of Diyarbakir. Also, two suspected ISIS militants, who were plotting attacks on New Year’s Eve in capital city of Ankara were also arrested on Dec. 30 with their explosive devices and belts.
The blast could be devastating for the Turkish tourism sector that has already been suffering from the Russian sanctions and rising security threats. Last year, over 12 million tourists visited the city, but if the instability continues, the number is expected to decrease.
Turkey on edge
The blast came after a slew of deadly attacks across Turkey in past months that has left Turkey's largest city on edge. The force of the blast was sufficient to be heard in adjacent neighborhoods, witnesses told Agence France-Presse. In reaction, Russia’s foreign minister said that Tuesday’s deadly bomb attack confirms the need for countries to urgently join forces to battle terrorism. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Tuesday condemned a suicide bomb attack in Istanbul, calling it a “despicable crime” and said the perpetrators must face justice.
Additional reporting Menekse Tokyay in Istanbul (With AFP and Reuters)

Blast in Istanbul tourist district kills at least 10 people
Reuters/01.12.16,/Explosion in Sultanahmet square, area near the Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia, also wounds 15 people; tourists from Germany, Norway, South Korea said to be among wounded; no Israelis reported hurt so far.
ISTANBUL - An explosion in the heart of Istanbul's historic Sultanahmet tourist district killed at least ten people and wounded 15, two seriously, on Tuesday and some local media reports said a suicide bomber may have been responsible. Several bodies lay on the ground in the Sultanahmet square, some 25 meters away from the Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia, a major tourist area of Turkey's most populous city. A police officer and witness at the scene reported also seeing several bodies and body parts. Most of the 10 people killed were foreigners, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus said.
Turkey's Dogan news agency says at least six Germans, one Norwegian and one Peruvian are among those wounded in the explosion, while Seoul's Foreign Ministry told reporters that one South Korean had a slight finger injury after the blast. So far, there have been no reports of Israeli tourists hurt in the attack.
The Istanbul governor's office said the authorities were investigating the type of explosive used and who might have been responsible for the attack. State-run TRT television and AHaber television reported it was likely caused by a suicide bomber. A government official said the explosion was believed to be "terror-linked." He did not provide further details. Kurtulmus said the suspected suicide bomber had been identified from body parts as a Syrian national born in 1988, and that his links were being investigated. Turkish security officials told Reuters that there is a high probability that Islamic State militants were responsible for the explosion. "The explosion was very loud. We shook a lot. We ran out and saw body parts," one woman who works at a nearby antiques store told Reuters, declining to give her name. Police sealed the area, barring people from approaching in case of a second explosion, and a police helicopter hovered overhead. Ambulances rushed to the scene, ferrying away the wounded as police cordoned off streets. The Sultanahmet neighborhood is Istanbul's main sightseeing area and includes the Topkapi Palace and the Haghia Sophia museum. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu immediately convened a security meeting with the country's interior minister and other officials. As with previous attacks, authorities imposed a news blackout, barring media from showing images of the dead or injured or reporting any details of the investigation. Turkey suffered two major bombing attacks last year, both blamed on the Islamic State group. More than 30 people were killed in a suicide attack in the town of Suruc, near Turkey's border with Syria, in July. Two suicide bombs exploded in October outside Ankara's main train station as people gathered for a peace rally, killing more than 100 in Turkey's deadliest-ever attack. The prosecutor's office said that attack was carried out by a local Islamic State cell. A year ago, a female suicide bomber blew herself up at a police station for tourists off the Sultanahmet square, killing one officer and wounding another. That attack was initially claimed by a far-left group, but later turned out to have been perpetrated by a woman with suspected Islamist militant links, officials said. Kurdish, leftist and Islamist militants have all carried out attacks in Turkey in the past. *The Associated Press contributed to this report.

U.N. Warns 'Many More Will Die' if Syria Sieges are Not Lifted
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/The United Nation's top aid official in Syria warned Tuesday that "many more will die" unless government forces and rebels lift their sieges of towns across the country. "It must stop," said Yacoub El Hillo, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Syria. "Many more will die if the world does not move faster." The U.N. official spoke a day after aid convoys delivered the first supplies in three months to the besieged town of Madaya, where the medical charity MSF says 28 people have died of starvation since December 1. In Madaya, where government forces have been blocking access for six months, El Hillo said he saw "severely malnourished" residents, especially children who were "extremely thin, skeletal.""We have seen people who have gone without food for a long time," he told reporters, speaking by phone from Damascus. El Hillo appealed for U.N. action to end the sieges, describing the blockades as "the key culprit" for the suffering and a "tactic of war" being used by all sides in the nearly five-year conflict. The United Nations says it is struggling to deliver aid to about 4.5 million Syrians who live in hard-to-reach areas, including nearly 400,000 people in 15 besieged areas.
The U.N. Security Council has adopted resolutions demanding an end to the sieges, but these have been largely ignored. Talks were under way to evacuate 400 Syrians, mostly women and children, from a hospital in Madaya and bring in mobile clinics to provide treatment, said El Hillo. The patients could be taken to hospitals in Damascus to receive urgent medical aid, he said. "I have every reason to believe this will happen", he added. After months of negotiations, the United Nations and its aid partners were able on Monday to send 65 truckloads of food, medical aid, blankets and winter clothing to the trapped residents of Madaya and two other towns. The deliveries came ahead of a new round of Syrian peace talks planned for January 25 in Geneva. More than 260,000 people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began in March 2011 with anti-government demonstrations.

Suffering in Besieged Madaya Has No Precedent in Syria War, Says U.N.
France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/The suffering in the Syrian town of Madaya is the worst seen in the country's civil war, the United Nations said Tuesday, a day after delivering aid to the area besieged for months. "There is no comparison in what we saw in Madaya," the U.N. refugee agency's chief in Damascus, Sajjad Malik, told journalists in Geneva, when asked to compare the devastation in the town to other areas in Syria. He said there were "credible reports" of people starving to death during the months-long siege by pro-regime forces. Syria's ambassador to the United Nations, Bashar Jaafari, told journalists in New York on Monday that there was "no starvation in Madaya" after the medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said 28 people in the town had starved to death. A convoy of trucks from the U.N., Syrian Red Crescent and International Red Cross (ICRC) delivered emergency food supplies to Madaya on Monday, in the first aid to reach the area since October. "There was no life," said Malik, who was in the convoy, describing a town of desperate people who in many cases were too weak to voice outrage over their suffering. Food has been so scarce that people "repeatedly mentioned that a kilo of rice would cost $300 (275 euros)", Malik said. One family "sold a motorbike to get five kilos of rice," he added, detailing the extent of the devastation among the town's estimated 40,000 inhabitants. Residents told U.N. staff that a main source of food in recent weeks has been a soup made of grass boiled with the few available spices. With no access to electricity, people in Madaya had tried to stay warm by burning cardboard, the U.N. official further said, adding: "Whatever we had in the cars, we gave to them." As part of its deal with Damascus, the U.N. has permission to carry out two more aid deliveries to Madaya in the coming days, but timing and details have not yet been agreed with the regime. Malik said the World Health Organization would seek establish the number of people who had died from starvation in Madaya when U.N. agencies were allowed back into the area. He stressed the vital need to sustain aid deliveries through the coming months. "If we are not able to sustain this... even the effort we have put in now will be a band-aid," he said. "We want to make sure that these sieges are lifted." Amid the total collapse of health services in the town, WHO said it wants to deploy mobile health clinics to Madaya.

U.N. Syria Envoy to Meet Security Council Powers
France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/The U.N.’s Syria envoy will meet ambassadors from the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday in Geneva, ahead of planned talks to end the country’s civil war, a statement said. Envoy Staffan de Mistura has been trying to secure support for a fresh round of negotiations, which are provisionally scheduled to start on January 25, and are aimed at resolving the brutal conflict. His meeting with Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States will be “at the ambassadorial level,” and will take place at the U.N.’s European headquarters in Geneva, U.N. spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said. No details were given as to the agenda of the talks. Speaking to journalists earlier on Tuesday, Fawzi said De Mistura was going to spend this week trying to “nail down the timing and the framework” for the talks. Last week, Damascus pledged to take part in the negotiations, but key opposition groups have withheld such commitments. The Security Council has endorsed an ambitious 18-month plan to end Syria’s nearly five-year war which has killed more than 260,000 people and forced more than 4 million others to flee the country, with a negotiated political solution seen as essential to ending the violence.

Putin: Premature to Speak of Asylum for Assad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday it was premature to say whether Moscow would grant asylum to embattled Syrian leader Bashar Assad, who had made "many mistakes.""You know I believe that it is premature to discuss this," Putin said in the second half of a two-part interview with German mass circulation daily Bild. "We gave asylum to Mr Snowden, it was more difficult than giving it to Assad," he said, referring to fugitive U.S. intelligence leaker Edward Snowden, granted asylum in Russia in 2013. "First one needs to give the Syrian people an opportunity to have their say," Putin said, according to a Russian-language transcript of the interview published by the Kremlin. "And I assure you that if this is done in a democratic way, then maybe he won't have to go anywhere. And it does not matter whether he is president or not."Global powers are seeking to push the Syrian regime and opposition to the negotiating table in a bid to end the nearly five-year war that has killed 260,000 people. A U.N.-backed plan foresees talks between the different sides starting on January 25, the establishment of a transitional government within six months and elections within 18 months. Putin -- who launched a bombing campaign in the war-torn country on September 30 -- appeared to defend Assad, although he acknowledged the Syrian president had made "many mistakes" since the conflict broke out in 2011. The unrest would not have escalated so quickly "if from the very beginning it had not been fuelled from abroad -– with a huge amount of money, weapons and fighters," Putin said. "Assad is not seeking to annihilate his own population. He's fighting those who have come to him with arms," Putin added. "And if the peaceful population suffers because of that then I think that it is primarily those who are fighting him with arms in their hands and who are helping the armed groups that are responsible for this." The Kremlin strongman reiterated that the Russian military has also been helping the armed anti-Assad opposition. "We are talking about hundreds, thousands of armed people who are fighting ISIL," he said, using an alternative name for the Islamic State group. "We support both the Assad army and the armed opposition. Some of them have already publicly announced this, some prefer to remain silent but the work is ongoing."

Syria Opposition Condemns Istanbul Suicide Bombing
France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/Syria's opposition coalition on Tuesday denounced the attack by a Syrian suicide bomber that killed 10 people in Istanbul's tourist heartland. The Istanbul-based National Coalition "strongly condemns the terrorist explosion... and presents its condolences to the families of the victims," the group said in an online statement. The bomber struck near the iconic Blue Mosque in Sultanahmet, a district home to Istanbul's biggest concentration of historic monuments. According to Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus, the attacker was a Syrian national born in 1988.
Turkey has been a staunch supporter of Syria's uprising since it erupted in 2011, and hosts more than one million refugees from the neighboring country. The National Coalition "expressed its appreciation to the Turkish government and people for supporting the Syrian uprising" and said it would continue to strive against "terrorist plans."Turkey has been struck by a number of deadly bombings recently, including in the capital on October 10 when two suicide bombers blew themselves up in a crowd of peace activists. Turkish authorities have in recent weeks detained several suspected IS members, with officials saying they were planning attacks in Istanbul. Most of those killed in Tuesday's attack were German, the Anatolia news agency quoted Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's office as saying.

Sweden Wants Probe in Israel Killing of Palestinians in Recent Months
France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom on Tuesday called for "thorough" investigations into the killing of Palestinians by the Israeli army in recent months. Wallstrom was responding to a question in parliament by an opposition member on the controversy raised last month by her statement on the need for Israel to avoid "extrajudicial executions". She was referring then to the more than 100 Palestinians killed in two months, most while committing or attempting to commit knife attacks in Israel and the Palestinian territories, and others in clashes or attacks.
"It is essential that thorough and credible investigations be conducted concerning these deaths with the aim of providing clarity and bringing about possible accountability," Wallstrom said Tuesday. Ties between Israel and Sweden plummeted after Stockholm recognized the Palestinian state shortly after Wallstrom's center-left Social Democrats won a parliamentary election in 2014. A day after the Paris attacks claimed by the Islamic State group, Wallstrom again attracted Israeli condemnation when she said the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was a factor of radicalization. The Israeli foreign ministry said then that Wallstrom "has consistently demonstrated bias against Israel."

Three Palestinians Shot Dead by Israelis during Unrest
France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/Israeli forces shot dead two Palestinians during an attempted stabbing attack in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday while a third was killed in unrelated clashes, officials said. Two young Palestinians were killed after one of them attempted to stab an Israeli soldier near the southern West Bank city of Hebron, the army said, the latest in more than three months of such attacks. "A Palestinian attacker, armed with a knife, attempted to stab a soldier securing the Beit Hanoun junction near Hebron," a statement said. "Responding to the imminent threat, forces at the scene fired towards the assailant, resulting in his death."A second man, who the army said had driven the attacker to the scene, was shot and injured as he fled. Palestinian security sources said he later died, with the health ministry identifying the two as 23-year-old Mohammed Kowazba and 17-year-old Adnan al-Mashti. Earlier a 21-year-old was shot and killed during protests near Bethlehem. "Young man killed after being shot in the chest by (Israeli) forces in Beit Jala," a Palestinian health ministry statement said, referring to a town south of Jerusalem in the West Bank. It identified him as 21-year-old Srur Ahmad Abu Srur from Aida refugee camp near Bethlehem. The Israeli army confirmed forces had fired on a "violent riot" in Beit Jala. "A hit was confirmed," a spokeswoman said. Hospital sources said a second person was shot in the leg during the clashes. Twenty-three Israelis and an American have been killed in Palestinian attacks including stabbings, car rammings and gunfire since October 1. An Eritrean was also killed. At the same time, 149 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks. The Palestinian Prisoners Club rights group says more than 3,000 Palestinians have been arrested since the start of the violence, with most of them minors. It says a total of more than 7,000 Palestinian prisoners are currently held by Israel.

Israel Gets Fifth German Submarine
France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/Israel on Tuesday took delivery of its fifth German-built submarine, an advanced Dolphin-class vessel said to be capable of remaining submerged for up to a week. Speaking at an official welcome ceremony at the northern port city of Haifa, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the undersea fleet allows Israel "to deter enemies who seek to destroy us." "They should know that Israel can strike very hard indeed at anyone who tries to harm it," he said. The new arrival is named "Rahav" after a biblical sea monster. "Rahav will take an active part in defending the state of Israel and its territorial waters, operating deeper, further, and for longer from the very depths -- with a watchful eye," President Reuven Rivlin said at the ceremony. Foreign military sources say the Dolphins can be equipped with missiles armed with nuclear warheads. They say Israel has between 100 and 200 warheads and missiles capable of delivering them. Israel is the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear power, refusing to confirm or deny it has such weapons. Its five German-made submarines will be used to protect its shores and carry out spying missions against its arch-foe Iran, Israeli media say. Netanyahu tried in vain to block a July deal with world powers on scaling down Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, arguing it would not stop Tehran from developing an atomic weapon. The incoming head of Israel's Mossad spy agency said last week that the Islamic republic and its nuclear ambitions constitute "the principle challenge" for his organization. A sixth submarine is to be delivered in two to three years although defense analyst Yossi Melman, writing in Maariv newspaper, has said it is likely to be canceled for budgetary reasons. The current model costs about 500 million euros ($540 million) to build, Israeli media say. Berlin is paying one third of the cost itself.

Europe Rights Court Condemns Turkey for Dissolving Pro-Kurdish Party
France Presse/Naharnet/January 12/16/Europe's top rights court on Tuesday condemned Turkey for dissolving a moderate pro-Kurdish political party in 2009 for alleged ties to PKK rebels, saying the party did not promote violence nor warrant such a severe sanction. The judges ruled that Turkey had violated the right to freedom of assembly and association by ordering the dissolution of the Party for a Democratic Society (DTP), part of the pro-Kurdish left-wing movement, which lost its seats in parliament, the European Court for Human Rights (ECHR) said in a statement. The Turkish government's reasons for dissolving DPT stem from its decades-long battle with rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) who initially sought independence for the Kurdish-majority southeast, but over the years have narrowed their demands to greater autonomy and cultural rights. But the ECHR said the reasons for "the DTP's dissolution, one of the main political actors which had argued in favor of a peaceful solution to the Kurdish problem, could not be regarded as sufficient to justify the interference in its right to freedom of association," the statement said. It added that none of DTP's political projects were "incompatible with the concept of a democratic society."The judges also ruled that Turkey was in breach of the European Convention on Human Rights in denying the party's two co-presidents -- Ahmet Turk and Aysek Tugluck -- their parliamentary mandates guaranteed under the right to free elections. The court noted that the leaders' speeches did not encourage "the use of violence, armed resistance or insurrection." The judges' unanimous decision found that while Turkey criticized the DTP for not openly distancing itself from some members' "indirect support of terrorism", the failure to act was not a reason to justify "a sanction of such severity as the dissolution of an entire party." In March 2009, the DTP had garnered 5.7 percent of the vote in local elections, becoming a Kurdish political force in Turkey and the first in the southeast. Turkey has three months to contest the ruling and request a new review of the case.

U.S. says two Navy boats in Iranian custody
Staff writer, Al Arabiya NewsWednesday, 13 January 2016/The Pentagon said it had briefly lost contact with two small Navy boats in the Arabian Gulf but has received assurances from Iran that the crew and vessels will be returned safely and promptly. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif gave an assurance to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that U.S. sailors would be allowed to continue their journey promptly. A Pentagon spokesman told The Associated Press that the boats were moving between Kuwait and Bahrain when the U.S. lost contact with them. “We have been in contact with Iran and have received assurances that the crew and the vessels will be returned promptly,” said the spokesman. The White House meanwhile said it is working to resolve the situation with the seized navy boats, and wants the U.S. personnel to be returned to normal deployment. A U.S. defense official quoted by Reuters said that the U.S. had received assurances that its sailors will promptly be allowed to continue their journey. U.S. news channel Fox reported that the U.S. sailors had drifted into Iranian territorial waters. U.S. officials said 10 sailors on the boats were in Iranian custody. The circumstances surrounding the seizure of the boats – and the current status of the two vessels and their crew – are still unclear. With the Associated Press and Reuters

Turkey: Is It Religiously All Right to Lust for My Daughter?
Burak Bekdil//© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 12/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7208/turkey-religious-lust
The Directorate for Religious Affairs, or Diyanet in Turkish, enjoys an annual budget bigger than those of more than 10 other ministries combined -- and its president, a government-appointed cleric, enjoys a $400,000 chauffeur-driven car. Turkey accuses those who protest lusting for one's daughter of hating religiosity."[G]ossip and holding hands, not allowed in Islam." — Fatwa from Turkey's Directorate of Religious Affairs. Turkey has a government agency that regulates "religious affairs" [read: Sunni Muslim Affairs]. It is run by the country's top Muslim cleric and reports to the prime minister. The Directorate for Religious Affairs, or Diyanet in Turkish, enjoys an annual budget bigger than those of more than 10 other ministries combined – and its president, a government-appointed cleric, enjoys a $400,000 chauffeur-driven car.
Among its duties is to issue "fatwas," or to tell Muslim Turks what is religiously permissible and what is not. Its current president, the top cleric, also enjoys making long, doctrinaire speeches. Sometimes they sound reasonable, sometimes not. When, a year ago, Islamist extremists in Paris were putting the final touches on their gruesome plan to kill a dozen cartoonists and attack the Charlie Hebdo magazine, Diyanet was busy issuing fatwas and publishing a religious calendar for three million or so desks and walls in offices and homes. Diyanet, at that time, also issued a fatwa that urged Muslims who have tattoos to repent if unable to erase them. Another fatwa in Diyanet's 2015 calendar said: "Do not keep pet dogs at home ... Prophet Mohammed once said: 'Angels do not visit homes where there are dogs and paintings.'"In those days of Parisian chaos -- even before the jihadists killed over 130 people in November -- Diyanet's president and Turkey's top cleric, Professor Mehmet Gormez "did not believe" jihadists could kill innocent people. Speaking to a press conference in the aftermath of the Paris attacks, Gormez said that the use of Islamic symbols by the perpetrators of the attack was a sign of "manipulation." In other words, Professor Gormez was telling the world that someone else was carrying out the attacks and putting the blame on Muslims.
Diyanet, generously funded by the Turkish taxpayer -- Sunni, non-Sunni and non-Muslim -- hit the headlines recently with two fatwas that both irked and amused secular people around the world, not just in Turkey. In the first fatwa, Diyanet said that engaged couples should not hold hands or spend time alone together during their engagement. The fatwa read: "In this period, it is not inconvenient for couples to meet and talk to get to know each other, if their privacy is considered. However, there could be undesired incidents with or without their families' knowledge ... such as flirting, cohabitating or being alone. This encourages gossip and holding hands, not allowed in Islam."
Now think about that. The top clergyman in a NATO member and EU candidate, Turkey, rules that: Flirting, cohabitating or being alone for engaged couples are 'undesired incidents;' and Islam does not allow gossiping and 'holding hands.' That's fine. Every monotheistic clergy could be equally conservative – one could presume. But the second fatwa of the week -- which Diyanet, under fire now, denies -- caused a stir. Diyanet's second fatwa, appeared briefly on the fatwa section of its website (until it was deleted), in answer to readers' questions. An anonymous user asked whether, from a religious perspective, a father having sexual desire for his daughter should result in the cancellation of his marriage. The ulama [scholars] answered that, "There is a difference of opinion on the matter among Islam's different schools of thought." The fatwa read: "For some, a father kissing his daughter with lust or caressing her with desire has no effect on the man's marriage."
The response continued by saying that in one Islamic school of thought, Hanafi, the mother would be "forbidden" to such a man. "Moreover," the fatwa went on, "The girl would be over nine years of age." Possibly too embarrassed by its own fatwa, Diyanet first deleted its ulama's answer to the query and claimed that its answer was deliberately "distorted" through "tricks, wiliness and wordplay" aiming to discredit the institution. It then closed its "queries" section and posted a warning saying the page in question was "under repair." As thousands of Turks decried Diyanet's scandalous fatwa and accused the ulama of encouraging child abuse, a helping hand to Diyanet came from Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag. In his twitter account, he called the accusations a "character assassination" against the religious body. The "assassins," according to Bozdag, "were those miserably types who are annoyed by religion and the pious."
Turkey, once a secular Muslim country and the world's only hope for interfaith dialogue, has reached a point where the justice minister defends a fatwa that says some Islamic schools of thought would NOT command divorce if a father had lust for his own daughter [but if she is over nine?]. Turkey also accuses those who protest such a thing as lusting for one's daughter of hating religiosity. One can only wonder what will be the next insanity.
*Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

ISIS Followers Plan to Take over Gaza Strip
Khaled Abu Toameh/© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 12/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7209/isis-gaza-takeover
In the video produced by the pro-ISIS Palestinian Islamic Army (PIA), Hamas leaders are denounced for aligning themselves with moderate Arab leaders in the Gulf, who are described as "criminals and enemies of Islam." Apparently, Hamas has been too kind to Christians living in the Gaza Strip. The narrator blasts Hamas leaders for offering greetings to Christians on their holidays. It seems that there may be valid reasons for Egypt's reluctance to reopen the Rafah border crossing with Gaza, as well as to Israel's opposition to lifting the naval blockade on Gaza -- initiated to prevent weapons from being imported to Hamas and other extremists in Gaza. The PIA video provides proof that the Gaza Strip has become a hub for jihadi groups posing a murderous threat not only to Israel and "the West," but also to Muslims who are deemed by the terrorists as lacking in religious standards. A new group calling itself the Palestinian Islamic Army (PIA) has popped up in the Gaza Strip, signaling incontrovertibly the growing influence of the Islamic State (ISIS) among Palestinians. A thirty-minute video put out by the PIA shows its followers pledging allegiance to ISIS "Caliph" Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, and paints Hamas leaders as "apostates" and "infidels" for failing to implement Islamic sharia law in the Gaza Strip. The video constitutes proof positive that the ISIS ideology has infiltrated Gaza -- a truth that Hamas has unsuccessfully been trying to conceal for the past year.
A frame from the recent video produced in Gaza by the Palestinian Islamic Army (PIA), in which the PIA followers pledge allegiance to ISIS "Caliph" Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. In the video, Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal are denounced for aligning themselves with moderate Arab leaders in the Gulf, who are described as "criminals and enemies of Islam." Apparently, Hamas has been too kind to Christians living in the Gaza Strip. The narrator blasts Hamas leaders for offering greetings to Christians on their holidays and condolences on the death of some of the community's members. Hamas leaders are featured making visits to Christian "polytheists" in the Strip. Yet Christians are not the only bedfellows prohibited to Hamas by the PIA. The video also damns Hamas leaders for their alliance with the Shiite Muslims of Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah. For the PIA, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a "Satan" waging war on Sunni Muslims. And this "Satan" is in good company: "The Hamas government in the Gaza Strip is a sect of apostasy and blasphemy," the PIA video declares. Muslims are urged vigorously to distance themselves from the heretical Hamas.
The PIA holds Hamas responsible for the deaths of 11 of its members in the Gaza Strip. "The Hamas members executed them in front of their mothers, and left the wounded to die after preventing ambulances from reaching them," the video charges. "One of those killed in this massacre was brother Saeb Abu Obaida, who was executed by Hamas in cold blood." According to the video, Abu Obaida was the "emir" of the PIA in the Gaza Strip.
One of the leaders and founders of the ISIS-affiliated PIA, Mu'taz Daghmash (known by his nickname Abu Al-Majd), was killed in an Israeli airstrike two years ago -- much to the satisfaction of Hamas. The video reveals that arch-terrorist Daghmash was involved in the 2006 abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and the assassination of two Palestinian security commanders in the Gaza Strip -- Musa Arafat and Jad Tayeh. A second jihadi mentioned in the video, Sultan Al-Harbi, is described as a senior member of ISIS who received military training in Yemen, Sudan and Libya before returning to the Gaza Strip. He too was killed last year in an Israeli airstrike. Nidal Al-Ashi (aka Abu Huraira) was another PIA member in good standing, before becoming the first Palestinian to be killed in Syria while fighting for ISIS. Al-Ashi participated in multiple rocket attacks on "the enemies of Allah, the Jews," and attacks on churches and other Christian targets in Gaza, as well attacks as on Western journalists and diplomats.
Egyptian security officials have attested repeatedly that the Gaza Strip has become a major exporter of jihadis to Sinai. Events have proven those officials correct. It seems that there may be valid reasons for Egypt's reluctance to reopen the Rafah border crossing with Gaza, as well as to Israel's opposition to lifting the naval blockade on Gaza -- initiated to prevent weapons from being imported to Hamas and other extremists in the Gaza Strip. The PIA video provides definitive proof that the Gaza Strip has become a hub for jihadi groups posing a murderous threat not only to Israel and "the West," but also to Muslims who are deemed by the terrorists as lacking in religious standards. Hamas has brought nothing but havoc to its people in the Gaza Strip. As for the Palestinian Authority and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, all that is left for them is to be grateful for the presence of Israel in the West Bank. Without the Israeli military, Hamas and ISIS would eat Abbas and his Palestinian Authority for breakfast. One wonders: Is this the sort of state that Palestinians are seeking to establish?
Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

US presidential candidates weigh in on Russia, Putin, Middle East
Laura Rozen/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
Donald J. Trump:
Leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has famously suggested that he thinks he would “get along very well” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that the United States and Russia could find common ground in hitting the Islamic State (IS) in Syria if he were president. Putin, in turn, has praised Trump as a like-minded strongman with high poll numbers.
“I think that I would probably get along with him very well,” Trump said of Putin on CBS News’ "Face the Nation" on Oct. 11, 2015. "And I don't think you'd be having the kind of problems that you're having right now."
Regarding Putin intervening militarily in Syria, Trump said he supports it if Russia wants to bomb IS. “As far as him attacking [IS], I'm all for it. If he wants to be bombing the hell out of [IS], which he's starting to do, if he wants to be bombing [IS], let him bomb them,” Trump said. “Let him bomb them."
Trump warmly welcomed Putin’s praise at a year-end press conference.
Trump is “very talented, no doubt about that," Putin said Dec. 17 at a press conference. “He is the absolute leader of the presidential race, as we see it today. He says that he wants to move to another level of relations, to a deeper level of relations with Russia. How can we not welcome that? Of course we welcome it.”
"It is always a great honor to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond," Trump said in a statement released by his campaign the same day. "I have always felt that Russia and the United States should be able to work well with each other towards defeating terrorism and restoring world peace, not to mention trade and all of the other benefits derived from mutual respect."
“I’ve always felt fine about Putin,” Trump said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Dec. 18. “I think that he’s a strong leader. … I think he’s up in the 80s … and I don’t know who does the polls, maybe he does the polls, but I think they’re done by American companies, actually.”
Ted Cruz:
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has called Putin a bully and a dictator, and said the United States can make a show of strength with its air power in Syria, aggressively expand missile defenses in Eastern Europe and promote human rights to push back Putin and deter a resurgent Russia.
“In Syria we can't double down on the failed strategies that have given Putin his opportunity to intervene,” Cruz wrote in a CNN commentary Oct. 9. “It is dangerous to dictators like Putin when Americans remember their exceptionalism. The unique combination of power and principle that has made the United States the greatest force for good on the planet has historically posed a grave threat to repressive bullies.”
Cruz continued, “We have a successful model in front of us of how to deal with Russia without creating a diplomatic crisis … We can highlight human rights, and aggressively expand and enforce the Magnitsky Act, which targets Russian officials accused of human rights abuses. We can redouble our efforts to develop the defensive weapons that neutralized the offensive Soviet threat — particularly missile defense. … We should not only move quickly to install the canceled interceptor sites Putin opposed in Poland and the Czech Republic, but also to develop the next generation of systems that will only increase his discomfiture.”
After the assessment that IS was probably responsible for the downing of a Russian passenger plane that took off from Sharm el-Sheikh Egypt, Cruz said the tragedy could be an opportunity to direct Russia’s airstrikes in Syria against IS rather than having them hit more moderate Syria rebel groups.
"This is an opportunity for the United States to focus Russia's energy on [IS]," Cruz told CNN on Nov. 5. “And if they're responsible for this horrific terrorist attack, that's all the more reason for a concerted effort and a concerted commitment to destroy them.
"If you look right now, part of the problem is that Putin, I think, has taken the measure of the man in Barack Obama and doesn't respect him," Cruz said. "Once Putin determines that Obama's not credible, that he won't do what he says, that makes the prospect of our working together seriously to target [IS] a lot less plausible."
Marco Rubio:
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has called Putin a "gangster" who is seeking to challenge US dominance in the Middle East, prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and destroy NATO, and who needs to be confronted with a far more assertive American foreign policy.
Putin “is exploiting a vacuum that this administration has left in the Middle East,” Rubio said at the Sept. 16 CNN Republican presidential debate:
“[Putin] wants to reposition Russia, once again, as a geopolitical force,” Rubio said. “He’s trying to destroy NATO. … Here’s what you’re going to see in the next few weeks: the Russians will begin to fly combat missions in that region, not just targeting [IS], but in order to prop up Assad. He will also, then, turn to other countries in the region and say, ‘America is no longer a reliable ally, Egypt. America is no longer a reliable ally, Saudi Arabia. Begin to rely on us.’”
“What he is doing is he is trying to replace us as the single most important power broker in the Middle East, and this president is allowing it.”
"At the end of the day, although Vladimir Putin is a gangster and a criminal, he's also a geopolitical actor who makes decisions on a cost-benefit analysis," Rubio told Fox News on Nov. 24. "He will have to save face, but ultimately he won't test the alliance if the alliance stands up to him, because he would lose in that confrontation, and that would be a bigger setback for him."
Rubio said Russia was deliberately attacking moderate rebel forces in Syria rather than IS.
"Vladimir Putin is deliberately targeting all the non-[IS] rebels,” Rubio said in an interview with Fox News on Oct. 2. “The more moderate they are, the more he's going to target them."
The United States and NATO need to make clear they will back up Turkey if Russia retaliates for Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian air force plane, he told Fox News on Nov. 24. “So it's important for us to be clear that we'll respond and defend Turkey,” Rubio said.
Ben Carson:
Former pediatric neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson has said Putin is a dangerous belligerent destabilizing the Middle East and threatening Eastern Europe, and the United States must stand up to him and enforce its threats to deter Russian adventurism.
“I would tell [Putin] that we are a peaceful nation. But we are not a marshmallow,” Carson told Yahoo News’ Katie Couric on Nov. 15. “And we will not allow the extension of his influence in places where we have an interest.”
While saying he favors dialogue with the Russian president, Carson said the United States had to be firm and enforce any red lines that it sets. He advocated establishing a Syria no-fly zone on the Turkish-Syria border, and said the United States would have to shoot down a Russian plane if it violated it.
“We have to have a plan, we have to be willing to enforce that plan, and if we continue to back down, we will become a paper tiger,” Carson told Couric of vowing to enforce a Syria no-fly zone, even if Russia violated it and the United States had to shoot down a Russian plane.
“Whatever happens next, we deal with it, but we can’t continue backing down because in the long run, that’ll hurt us,” Carson said.
To deter further Russia expansionism in Eastern Europe, the United States should place “one or two” armored brigades in the Baltic region, provide arms to Ukraine and upgrade the United States' nuclear arsenal, Carson also proposed in the Yahoo interview, the website reported.
“Vladimir Putin’s Russia has become dangerously belligerent,” Carson’s campaign website states. “It is actively destabilizing Ukraine, endangering Europe in the process and continuing to fuel destabilization in the Middle East.
“President Putin must come to learn that there will be grave and serious consequences when Russia engages in naked aggression against other sovereign nations and free peoples,” the Carson campaign site continued. “All options should remain on the table when dealing with international bullies such as President Putin.”
In early October, Carson bizarrely and inaccurately contended in multiple interviews that Putin, Mahmoud Abbas (now Palestinian Authority president) and Ali Khamenei (an ayatollah who is now Iran's supreme leader) had known each other in Moscow in 1968.
Putin "already has substantial ties in the Middle East," Carson told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Oct. 8. "In the class of 1968 at Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow, Mahmoud Abbas was one of the members of that class, and so was Ali Khamenei. And that's where they first established relationships with the young Vladimir Putin."
Jeb Bush:
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has called Putin a "bully” who needs to be confronted by a more assertive US president and more robust sanctions.
"How to deal with him is to confront him on his terms, not to create a more bellicose environment but to simply say that there is going to be a consequence," Bush said of Putin in an Oct. 13 Reuters interview.
"I wouldn't worry about antagonizing the Russians, for starters,” Bush added. “They should worry about antagonizing us.”
Responding to Trump’s assertion at the Nov. 10 Fox/Wall Street Journal Republican presidential candidates’ debate that the United States should not be the world’s policeman, Bush said Trump is absolutely wrong.
“We're not going to be the world's policeman, but we sure as heck better be the world's leader,” Bush said at the debate. “Without us leading, voids are filled, and the idea that it's a good idea for Putin to be in Syria, let [IS] take out Assad, and then Putin will take out [IS]? I mean, that's like a board game, that's like playing Monopoly or something. That's not how the real world works. We have to lead, we have to be involved. We should have a no-fly zone in Syria. They are barrel bombing the innocents in that country. If you're a Christian, increasingly in Lebanon, or Iraq or Syria, you're going to be beheaded. And, if you're a moderate Islamist, you're not going to be able to survive either. “
Democrats
Hillary Clinton:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who led the Obama administration’s first term efforts at a “reset” with Russia, probably has the most direct experience with the Putin government of all the 2016 presidential candidates, and the two leaders have indicated they are not very fond of each other. Clinton has said she thinks the United States needs to take a more assertive approach to Russian annexation of Crimea while indicating there is room for cooperation on diplomacy to try to end the Syrian war. Putin in turn has expressed irritation with Clinton’s tough statements and belittled them as a sign of weakness.
“I remain convinced that we need a concerted effort to really up the costs on Russia and in particular on Putin,” Clinton said at the Brookings Institution on Sept. 9. "I am in the category of people who wanted us to do more in response to the annexation of Crimea and the continuing destabilization of Ukraine."
"We can't dance around it anymore,” Clinton said. “We all wish it would go away. We all wish Putin would choose to modernize his country and move toward the West instead of sinking himself into historical roots of czar-like behavior, and intimidation along national borders and projecting Russian power in places like Syria and elsewhere."
"I think Russia's objectives are to stymie and to confront and undermine American power whenever and wherever they can. I don't think there's much to be surprised about them," she said.
"We have to do more to get back talking about how to we try to confine, contain, deter Russian aggression in Europe and beyond," she said. "And try to figure out what are the best tools for doing that.”
"I don’t admire very much about Mr. Putin, but the idea you can stand up and say ‘I will be your next president’? That has a certain, you know, attraction to it," Clinton also joked at the Brookings event.
Putin, in December 2011, accused then-Secretary of State Clinton of giving support to the Russian opposition protesting disputed parliamentary polls and his plans to return to the Russian presidency in 2012. Russian opposition leaders “heard the signal and with the support of the US State Department began active work," Putin said Dec. 8, 2011. "We are all grownups here. We all understand the organizers are acting according to a well-known scenario and in their own mercenary political interests.”
Putin apparently remained annoyed by Clinton three years later, but said they could manage to conduct themselves cordially if needed.
"It’s better not to argue with women," Putin said in a June 3, 2014, interview posted by the Kremlin. "But Ms. Clinton has never been too graceful in her statements,” Putin said. “Still, we always met afterwards and had cordial conversations at various international events. I think even in this case we could reach an agreement. When people push boundaries too far, it’s not because they are strong but because they are weak. But maybe weakness is not the worst quality for a woman." Despite their seemingly jaundiced views of each other, Clinton said that when it came to Syria, Russia would have to be part of the solution. “We need to be putting together a coalition to support a no-fly zone,” Clinton said at a campaign event in Davenport, Iowa, on Oct. 6. “I think it’s complicated and the Russians would have to be part of it, or it wouldn’t work.”
Sen. Bernie Sanders:
In 1988, Sanders, then the mayor of Burlington, Vermont, traveled with his new wife to Yaroslavl, Russia, to inaugurate it as Burlington’s sister city.
The trip — misreported in some venues as Sanders “honeymooning” in the Soviet Union — is nevertheless perhaps illustrative of the generally more dovish worldview of the Vermont senator. Sanders, a Socialist who caucuses with the Democrats, urges more dialogue, diplomacy and cooperation with Russia to combat IS, and working in concert with the international community to enforce economic sanctions on Russia as an alternative to military confrontation.
"We have different points of view ... but Russia has got to join us,” Sanders said during a speech at Simpson College in Iowa on Nov. 16, CNN reported. “We are concerned about Iran, but Iran has to join us. We have concerns about Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia has to join us. ... If all over the world these attacks are taking place, the world has got to come together."
"Of course I have concerns," Sanders said of Putin’s motives in Syria.
“Historically, Russia has been, and will continue to be, a significant player in the international economic and diplomatic sphere,” the pro-Sanders campaign website Feel the Bern states.
“Bernie Sanders supports a strong, consistent stance with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin,” the campaign site says. “Bernie supports enforcing economic sanctions and international pressure as an alternative to any direct military confrontation when dealing with Russia. …The United States must collaborate to create a unified stance with our international allies in order to effectively address Russian aggression.”

Could Iran-Saudi conflict provide Turkey 'graceful exit' from Syria?
Pinar Tremblay/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
In front of the Saudi Embassy in Ankara and the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul on Jan. 3, small, yet passionate, groups of protesters got together. Holding posters of executed Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the protesters condemned Saudi Arabia for the execution. The mainstream media outlets did not report these protests — which were peaceful, despite substantial concerns.Al-Monitor spoke with Kadir Akaras, the chairman of the Ehli Beyt Scholars Association, which was one of the organizers of the protests. News reports noted this was a protest organized by the Turkish Shiite (Jaafari) community. Akaras said, “People from all sections of society participated: Sunnis, Alevis, Shiites, Kurds and Turks. Despite the cold weather, thousands of Muslims gathered to protest the Saudi regime.” Akaras explained that the Turkish police forces provided extensive security measures at the Saudi Embassy and Saudi Consulate, and yet they were also respectful of the peaceful protesters.
Nimr’s execution Jan. 2 has brought tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to another level, leading many to question if the region is on the brink of a sectarian war. Pundits express concerns that Turkey's foreign policy will face further challenges. What will Turkey do in the midst of increasing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran? Will growing sectarianism affect Turkey’s precarious domestic politics given its existing problems with the Kurds and the Alevis?
Al-Monitor spoke with a diverse group of pundits and bureaucrats in Ankara and Istanbul about the impact of a potential escalation of sectarian tensions. Most of them emphasized the emerging challenges, while some were more optimistic about finding opportunities in the face of the intensifying Saudi-Iranian conflict. That said, all of them mirrored the somber mood of the Turkish mainstream media of a regional sectarian war being real and imminent.
The Turkish public and media have already been polarized in their support for Saudi Arabia and Iran. While pro-government media outlets are following the lead of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and openly back Saudi Arabia, left-wing and marginalized media outlets as well as secular media have been asking for caution and neutrality and raising red flags against increasing tensions with Iran.
Selin Nasi, a columnist for Jewish weekly Salom and contributor for Hurriyet Daily News, told Al-Monitor, “Although we had initial signals from the prime minister’s office about a potential mediator role for Turkey [between Iran and Saudi Arabia, prior to Erdogan’s statement], this is quite a slim possibility. Turkey seems to be allied with Saudi Arabia in Syria and signals deepening this alliance.” Looking at some of the writings of pro-Justice and Development Party pundits within the first 10 days of 2016, it can be seen that their efforts, which validate Nasi’s prediction, aim to prepare the public to support a pro-Saudi stand. Several of these pundits refer to “an Iranian madness” and aggressive expansionist policies, and they voice concerns that Iran is a puppet of Russia.
Ceyda Karan, a prominent foreign policy analyst and columnist for daily Cumhuriyet, was pessimistic about the situation, and said, “I do not see any opportunities for Turkey in light of the rise of sectarian tensions. Indeed, sectarian overtones have been suffused in Turkish political life since the start of the Syrian civil war. Turkey supported the establishment of a Muslim Brotherhood-majority government in Syria. When that failed, a tacit alliance with Saudi Arabia and Qatar was established. After the Reyhanli terror attack, Erdogan, referring to the victims, talked about 'my Sunni citizens.' Despite some competition, with the latest security accord it seems Turkey has declared its side [with Saudi Arabia].”
Alptekin Dursunoglu, an expert on Iran and senior editor of Yakin Dogu Haber, does not hold much hope for change in Turkey's foreign policy. Dursunoglu told Al-Monitor, “Turkey’s Middle East policy has been taken hostage by Syria. Hence, Turkey becomes friends with the countries whose policies align with Ankara in Syria, and enemies with all others.” Dursunoglu highlighted that Turkey stood with Saudi Arabia for its war in Yemen and refrained from using any language to offend Saudi Arabia after the execution of Nimr. Yet he also warned along with many other pundits that this matter is not just risky as a foreign policy issue, but one that would have a direct impact on domestic politics. Dursunoglu added, “It is not only Sunnis that live in Turkey.” Also, not all Sunnis are unconditionally supportive of Saudi Arabia — not in the region and not in Turkey.
Professor Mehmet Ali Buyukkara, a theologian and dean of the School of Islamic Studies at Sehir University in Istanbul, told Al-Monitor that he viewed Turkey’s role from a slightly different perspective. “At the end of December while Erdogan was visiting Saudi Arabia, Director of Religious Affairs Mehmet Gormez traveled first to Iran then to Saudi Arabia, holding meetings with the highest ranking religious figures in both countries,” Buyukkara said. He also emphasized that Turkey cares deeply about ending the bloodshed in the region and represents a different version of Sunni Islam than Saudi Arabia. That said, Buyukkara was not optimistic about an immediate reconciliation with Iran. He said, “Although tensions have risen, it still has the potential to reach a peak between Saudi and Iran. Can Turkey assume the mediator role? It seems difficult given the position we are at in Syria against Iran, and given the perception about Iranian policies toward the [Kurdistan Workers Party] and the Islamic State [IS].”
Erdogan, who is viewed as the main driving force behind Turkish foreign policy, has been consistently pro-Saudi in his rhetoric and policy choices since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Can Turkey find opportunities in the midst of sectarian tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia? A high-level bureaucrat from Ankara, who asked to remain anonymous, argues that it is possible. She told Al Monitor, “In 2010, Turkey along with Brazil stepped in the forefront to support Iran [nuclear deal]. Now the balance has changed. We can see that there are strong currents within the Sunni world against Saudi Arabia. What will not change is the fact that we share a border with Iran. We would like to sit at the table with Iran. If Iran and Saudi Arabia keep attacking each other, Turkey may find even a graceful exit opportunity out of the Syrian morass. If we can end enmity toward Israel, why would we not embrace Iran? Turkey’s role goes beyond taking sides or being a mediator. We are an active player.”
Indeed, challenging times provide golden opportunities for creative policymakers. However, leaders need to be flexible enough to see and seize these moments. Can Turkey afford to alienate Iran further while fighting the Kurds and IS on its border?
Turkish reactions to the execution of Nimr and the following events are quite telling for future Turkish policy. Although initially the Turkish state establishment has shown restraint, Erdogan has declared the execution “a matter of Saudi domestic politics,” hence it should not be commented on. Iran has diligently questioned Erdogan’s friendship with the Saudis and his involvement in Nimr’s execution. Turkey fears Iran, not only in Syria but also inside Turkey, questioning Iran’s ability to mobilize the Alevis along with the Kurds. Turks are also watching the US-Iran rapprochement and the upcoming Iranian elections carefully. As one Turkish official told Al Monitor, “It is clear who will be in Ankara for the next five years. Once we know who will be in Tehran, we can shape our policies better [referring to the upcoming February elections]. There is no urgency of iron-clad commitments.” For now, Ankara is more interested in balancing Saudi Arabia and Iran against each other rather than mediating in between them. Perhaps while questioning the Turkish position between Iran and Saudi Arabia, we have not yet asked the right questions.

Potential solutions to Egypt-Ethiopia dam dispute remain murky
Ayah Aman/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
KHARTOUM, Sudan — Participants kicked up plenty of dust at the most recent round of negotiations concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but once again departed with only an agreement to keep trying to reach an agreement.The negotiations among officials of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan were marked by direct confrontations and escalating tension. Potential solutions are murky, at best, and the process remains stagnant. On Dec. 27, the negotiating parties found themselves forced to announce that they had signed a document calling for “continued” cooperation and trust-building in an attempt to contain mounting public pressure in Egypt and Ethiopia. Yet the parties failed to find a solution that preserves the Nile water interests of Cairo and Addis Ababa. The negotiations resumed in Khartoum just two weeks after the first round held in the first week of December. However, Egypt remained skeptical, especially after Ethiopia announced Dec. 26 — just hours before the start of negotiations — that it was diverting the Nile’s course to run through the dam for the first time. This step confirmed Addis Ababa’s refusal to delay construction on the dam until the end of the negotiations.
The filling of the dam's reservoir and its operating mechanisms topped the negotiations’ agenda, but Egypt and Ethiopia’s divergent visions and intransigent positions hindered any potential agreement.
The Egyptian delegation rejected Ethiopia’s request to store at least 3 billion cubic meters (2.4 million acre feet) of water in the dam to carry out construction safety tests.
The Egyptian delegation refused the idea of any water storage. For its part, Ethiopia rejected Egypt’s request to extend the period to fill up the dam to 11 years or reduce the storage capacity of the dam to 50 billion cubic meters from 72 billion cubic meters. During the first hours of the meetings, the decision was finally made to restart the technical studies on the dam’s impact — a topic of dispute for 18 months now, after the withdrawal of the Dutch consulting institute Deltares. Officials agreed to use the French design and engineering consulting company Artelia Group to carry out 30% of the studies with BRL, another French consulting group, provided the studies are officially started by the beginning of February. Egypt and Ethiopia were both satisfied with Artelia, which has provided its services in major projects in the two countries. It has a permanent office in Egypt and participated in the studies and technical and economic assessment of the GIBE III 1.870 MW hydropower project in Ethiopia. It provided engineering and technical consulting services for hydroelectric projects such as the Ethiopian Assiut Barrage in 2009, in addition to irrigation and water treatment projects such as the rehabilitation of the Nubaria and Ismailia canals from 2010 to 2013 in the Nile Delta.
An Egyptian official familiar with the negotiations told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “We are still facing a great dilemma, since Ethiopia is insisting on continuing construction of the dam without taking any political pledge to comply with the studies’ recommendations, which may be difficult to implement after the dam is complete and operating. The foreign ministers of all three countries signed a document after the meeting at an upbeat press conference, attended by Al-Monitor, aimed at calming the charged atmosphere that prevailed over the meetings. The agreement’s three major articles, however, add little new to the Declaration of Principles signed by the three presidents in March. These articles are the approval of Artelia, a commitment to speed up completion of the studies recommended by the International Panel of Experts on the dam in May 2013 and continued compliance by the three negotiating states with the policies of good faith and trust in accordance with the terms of the Declaration of Principles.
It should be noted that, during the December meeting, Egypt submitted a technical proposal to increase the number of lower water gates to secure a daily flow in the event of any malfunction or maintenance of the main gates or the associated tunnels. Yet after the first technical meeting between experts from the three countries, held Jan. 7-8 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia officially rejected the proposal. Bizuneh Tolcha, public relations director at the Ethiopian Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity, said no changes would be made to the plan’s design and two water outlets would provide a suitable water flow to Egypt and Sudan. Asrat Birhanu, an Ethiopian electrical power expert, told Al-Monitor, “The diversion of the river into its natural course and the water flowing inside it means that the dam is now ready for initial filling of a storage of nearly 4 billion cubic meters in the near future.”
He added, “This procedure does not affect the water flowing to Egypt and Sudan, which will not be reduced during the completion of the construction of the dam.”Regarding Egypt’s request to increase the number of water gates in the dam, Birhanu said, “Ethiopia already conducted a hydraulic simulation model to simulate the quantities of water flowing to Egypt and Sudan, [which showed there would not be] significant damage during the filling of the reservoir designed with a capacity of 72 billion cubic meters and estimated to be filled in a period ranging from three to five years.”He explained that “according to the initial design, sufficient water quantities pass through the dam’s water gates to Egypt and Sudan during the initial filling period as of the start of July 2016 of a storage capacity of 4 billion cubic meters.”“Fulfilling Egypt's request to increase the number of the dam’s gates to four will not have a special economic benefit, especially since these gates will not be used during the operation of the dam,” he added. The meetings stirred objections among the Egyptian and Ethiopian public in the absence of a reassuring categorical solution. Egyptians have become concerned about the dam’s impact on Egypt's annual quota of Nile water, while Ethiopian public opinion has been influenced for the four past years by a political campaign stressing the need to complete the dam project, which has become Ethiopia’s No. 1 development dream.
In a Dec. 30 speech, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi talked about the Egyptian concerns. “I share with you this concern,” he said. “But rest assured … I have never deceived you.”

Why Syria will pay for Iran-Saudi rift
Saheb Sadeghi/Al-Monitor/January 12/16
TEHRAN, Iran — The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has stated that the breakdown in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not affecting his efforts to advance the work of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG). However, there are reasons to believe that Riyadh’s cutting of diplomatic and commercial ties with Tehran will have a negative impact on the ISSG’s ongoing efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis.United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a cease-fire and a transitional government in Syria, was passed after serious efforts and consultations on behalf of the United States and its European partners to accommodate Saudi Arabia and Iran enough to sit at the negotiating table. Yet, with the recent negative developments regarding relations between Tehran and Riyadh, it’s unclear how the two countries will pursue negotiations within the framework of the ISSG.
Indeed, concerns over the potential negative impact of the deterioration in Iran-Saudi relations on finding a solution to the Syrian crisis have led the West to uncharacteristically perform the difficult balancing act of accommodating both Tehran and Riyadh in order to continue their presence at the sessions of the ISSG. In this vein, White House spokesman Josh Earnest has criticized Saudi Arabia over the execution of Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, while chiding Iran for the subsequent attacks on Saudi diplomatic facilities in Iran. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has taken the step of speaking by phone with the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia, urging the two sides to calm tensions. In a statement, Mogherini also denounced the Saudis for the execution of Nimr. Separately, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has condemned the execution and ensuing attacks on Saudi diplomatic compounds, stressing the need for Iran and Saudi Arabia to ease their tensions. Moreover, British Prime Minister David Cameron canceled his planned visit to Saudi Arabia, while Canada has issued a statement condemning only the execution of Nimr.
The next session of the ISSG will involve representatives of the Syrian government and the opposition. While apparently still slated to be held in Switzerland on Jan. 25, it is certain that there will be many challenges at the negotiating table — and that the various parties’ positions will be far apart. Although the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is neither discussed in UN Security Council Resolution 2254 nor in the ongoing political dialogue, it is not yet clear what the different parties’ stances on this matter will be. Moreover, the classification of nonterrorist opposition groups allowed to have a seat at the table — a very important issue in the peace talks — has not yet been finalized. The list of acceptable opposition groups has to be approved by a committee, which includes Iran. If the list is not finalized in the coming days and weeks, it is clear that the ongoing diplomatic efforts must be considered a failure and the Jan. 25 ISSG session thus unlikely to yield important results.
The ongoing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia may also influence the matter of the fight against the Islamic State (IS). For the Saudis, hindering Iran’s claimed influence in the region is of more importance than the fight against IS. This has been clearly displayed during the ISSG sessions so far, as Riyadh has made fighting IS a lower priority than the ouster of Iran-backed Assad. Indeed, rising tensions between the region’s Shiite-Iran and Sunni-Saudi Arabia powerhouses over Syria will shift the focus of all parties away from fighting IS. In this vein, only IS will benefit from the current situation, and the terrorist group can be counted on to make use of the widened gaps between regional states to pursue its objective of promoting its sectarian narrative. Furthermore, one cannot disregard the matter of how rising hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia will increase insecurity in various countries across the region in addition to Syria and, perhaps, beyond. This would also be perfectly in line with the objectives of IS. Indeed, the more insecurity, the faster the group will grow.
Recent developments in Homs, where a cease-fire deal between armed opposition groups and the Syrian government was achieved following ISSG meetings in Vienna, led many to express hope for an end to the fighting. However, with the breakdown in Iranian-Saudi relations, these hopes are fading, with the situation on the ground bound to become more complex.
The current situation is such that Jaish al-Islam, the coalition of Islamist groups backed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, is not in a very good state, and despite earlier successes in the fight against the Syrian government, it has recently suffered setbacks on several fronts. The Lebanese Hezbollah movement and Syrian government forces are in a better position. Against this backdrop, Iran and Saudi Arabia can be expected to strengthen their allies and proxies in Syria, resulting in a further escalation of tensions. Riyadh, as the patron of armed opposition forces in Syria, and Tehran, as the main supporter of Syrian government troops and militias supporting Assad, will both attempt to hurt the other side in a full-scale proxy war. This situation will deepen the conflict in Syria and broaden ongoing disputes.
As Iran and Saudi Arabia will likely try to strengthen their proxies and tilt the situation to their own advantage, the progress achieved within the framework of ISSG in recent months may very well evaporate. Many analysts believe that Saudi Arabia has sought this heightening of tensions and deliberately carried out the death sentence against Nimr. In their view, Saudi Arabia predicted Iran’s violent reaction to the execution, which appears to have been used to send messages to the United States, internal Saudi opposition as well as Iran. The message to Washington may have been that Riyadh finds it unacceptable that following the implementation of the July 14, 2015, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran will likely emerge as a major power in the region. In this vein, the Saudi maneuvering can be construed as an ultimatum to the West to either choose Saudi Arabia or Iran. To domestic critics, Nimr’s execution may be a signal that death is the fate of any critic or rebellion. Finally, as for Iran, the Saudi message has been that it will never accept Iran’s regional role. Amid this escalation, the concern for the United States, more than anything else, is the fate of the political negotiations to resolve the crisis in Syria. Indeed, Washington believes that the negotiations are at a sensitive stage and therefore should not be allowed to collapse. Thus, the United States is working toward lessening tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The intensive consultations of American diplomats, and particularly Secretary of State John Kerry, with the Saudis and Iranians to reduce tensions has been done to ensure the continuation of the ISSG’s efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis. Only time will tell whether the United States, as in the past, can bring the current tensions under control.

You are either with us, or against us
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
Saudis should adopt this phrase while currently facing a major existential crisis. The problem with the slogan is that it became associated with U.S. President George W Bush, who used it after the Sept. 11 attacks, though he was not the first to say it. In his historical address before Congress, Bush aimed to gain public support to retaliate against Osama bin Laden, political Islam, or even Islam itself. I think Bush did not really know the difference between them. “Either you’re with us, or you’re with the terrorists,” he said. The world found it difficult to accept his ultimatum. Consequently, French-American relations became strained, and developments proved France right. Bush made catastrophic mistakes, and can be held responsible for many disasters, from the global economic crisis that began in his country, to the current situation in the Middle East after leaving Iraq in the hands of Iran and bolstering Al-Qaeda, which led to the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
However, his mistakes do not negate the logic behind the slogan “you are either with us or against us.” Such logic is essential in times of confrontation, and there is a major confrontation between sectarian Iran and free peoples. This struggle is not between Saudi Arabia and Iran, nor between Sunnis and Shiites. Some allies stand by Saudi Arabia against Tehran but not against the “Iranian project,” because they do not yet see it as such. Our neighboring friends say they do not want a sectarian conflict. It is too late; we have all been pushed against our will into this conflict by Iran. The conflict is not over borders, oil or gas. Had it been the case, we would have resorted to maps and brought in an army of lawyers and arbitration experts. It is not a conflict for power. After all, what do Saudi influence in Yemen or Iranian influence in Syria mean? There is no power worth dying for in politics, but Iranians are ready to die and kill in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Had they received the green light, Yemen would have been their fourth battlefield, though the Houthis represent them there in the most hideous way. Why then are Iranians killing our people and getting killed in our world? Because they have an expansionist project, and the time has come to convince our allies of this.
The attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran cannot be fixed by a mere apology or by cutting diplomatic ties. It was the last straw for an eroding relation, and it revealed the extent of Saudi anger toward Iran’s aggression. Riyadh should use the expression “you are either with us or against us” to identify where various parties stand. Each country has its own calculations, interests and internal affairs, but in major battles one cannot sit on the fence. Riyadh does not mind countries having standard friendly relations with Iran, but will never allow it to have a foothold in Arab countries, and will strongly reject any government loyal to Tehran. I am certain that all Arab and Muslim countries agree with this stance, and so should support Riyadh, which is fighting today for the sake of the entire region. After all, a Syria dominated by Iran is equally harmful to Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Iranian sectarianism
Our neighboring friends say they do not want a sectarian conflict. It is too late; we have all been pushed against our will into this conflict by Iran, which might not be speaking in a sectarian way but is acting as such. Look at a map and examine where and with whom Iran is fighting.
In Syria, it has been fighting against the people from the first day of the revolution, opposing freedom and supporting dictatorship. In Yemen, it decided to finance and train the Houthis only, not any other party. In Lebanon and Iraq, Iran only lines up with parties, movements and militias that share its sectarian beliefs. Freedom, democracy, and all values and rights are dashed for the sake of the Iranian project. Tehran is willing to accept ethnic cleansing in the Syrian town of Zabadani, the siege of 40,000 human beings until they die of starvation in Madaya, and the bombing of a hospital in Taiz, whose inhabitants are also starving. Iranian politics is driven solely by sectarianism. It is in Iran’s interest to have good relations with its neighbors, but Tehran’s thinking is fundamentalist, not patriotic. Like all fundamentalism, it is narrow-minded and capable only of seeing things in black and white. Therefore, today’s confrontation is not between Sunnis and Shiites, but between Shiite fundamentalism and Sunni fundamentalism represented by ISIS. In Saudi Arabia we are suffering from both, and they were equally stricken by the Saudi judicial sword on Jan. 2, when 47 prisoners convicted of terrorism were executed. We are not standing in the face of Iran because we are fundamentalists, but due to its aggressive expansionism. We hope for the return of a nationalist Iran that could even become the kingdom’s partner. We are witnessing the same conditions as Europe in 1939. When Hitler invaded Poland, Europe - which wanted to stay free - ran out of patience. Those who decided to wage war would have preferred otherwise, but they did not want to become victims of Hitler’s growing, fascist appetite. Not all European countries agreed with the British and French decision to confront him, but eventually the whole world lined up, joining either the ranks of freedom or of fascism. Today, the Muslim world faces a similar choice.

In Iran, old habits die hard
Mohammed Alyahya/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
In 1987, hundreds of thousands of Muslims of different nationalities, skin colours and sects gathered in Makkah for worship during the hajj season. Suddenly, a group of men chanting political slogans and brandishing knives, broken glass and bludgeons began rioting - 400 lives were lost as a result.
The instigators were believed to be members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who allegedly sought to hijack the pilgrimage to score political points against Saudi Arabia. In response, Riyadh banned Iranians from entering the kingdom. Rioters in Tehran then ransacked the Saudi embassy to protest the ban. Saudi Arabia consequently severed all diplomatic ties with Iran. Ties resumed four years later, in 1991. Last week, Riyadh again severed diplomatic ties with Iran for the same reason. Contrary to widespread postulations, the move was simply a similar response to a similar scenario.
Three decades later, Iran’s behavior has not changed much. The Saudi consulate in Mashhad and embassy in Tehran were ransacked and looted by angry mobs believed to be affiliated with the Basij forces of the IRGC. This happened with the government ostensibly looking the other way, if not giving its tacit blessing.
The pretext for the attacks was the execution of Nimr al-Nimr, a Saudi preacher convicted of terrorism charges. Nimr was apprehended by security forces following a shootout with the police in 2012. During the judicial process leading to his conviction, his case was scrutinized by 13 judges in three courts.
In 1987, the spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran came as the Iran-Iraq war was entering its last phase. During the war, Iran in its desperation engaged in risky brinkmanship by attacking oil tankers navigating the Hormuz Straits. Luckily, its attempt to destabilize the world economy came to naught. In a show of leadership and decisiveness, the United States stepped in and provided protection to the oil tankers, thus quashing Iran’s irresponsible behaviour. Iran has sponsored proxy militias and non-state actors for so long that it no longer seems capable of maintaining healthy state-level relations with its neighbors
The 2016 incident has sparked a regional outcry, with Bahrain, Sudan and Djibouti joining Saudi Arabia in severing all diplomatic ties. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) downgraded its diplomatic representation in Iran to the level of charge d’affairs, and reduced the number of Iranian diplomats in Abu Dhabi. Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan recalled their ambassadors.
Turkey summoned the Iranian ambassador to Ankara and submitted a memorandum of protest, while almost all Arab countries issued harsh condemnations of the attacks. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Arab League, U.N. Security Council and many governments worldwide also registered their protest.
In 1987, the Arab states were powerful and functional despite regional conflicts. In 2016 the reality is far different, with state failure and non-state actors on the rise simultaneously. Regional players realize that containing Iranian interference is more important than ever, and have turned to Saudi Arabia as the bulwark against Iranian expansionism because it has proved itself a steadfast investor in Middle East stability via its partnership with responsible state actors.
Regional interference
Iran has sponsored proxy militias and non-state actors for so long that it no longer seems capable of maintaining healthy state-level relations with its neighbors. Virtually every country in the Middle East has been affected by Iran’s expansionism and meddling in their internal affairs, either through proxy militias or the deployment of IRGC and Basij forces. In Iraq, Shiite militias have terrorized Sunnis for years since the U.S. invasion. Hezbollah and Iranian forces have propped up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and aided him in slaughtering more than 250,000 of his own people. In Yemen and Bahrain, Iran has gone to great lengths to undermine legitimate governments. It is sowing chaos to alter the natural regional order to its advantage, and seems ready to use any tool at its disposal to do so.
The region’s current security architecture, ridden with instability and state failure, requires a unified position from rational players. Saudi Arabia has stepped up to take the lead by establishing a Muslim coalition to counter terrorism in all its forms, with the two main threats to the region today being the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the IRGC and its clients. Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently said the kingdom would not allow war to break out with Iran because that would be “the beginning of a major catastrophe in the region, and it will reflect very strongly on the rest of the world.” Integral to this vision of peace and stability in the Middle East is regional unity against all forms of terrorism. Meanwhile, Iran does not seem willing to renounce support for terrorism, honor its obligations under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, or respect the national sovereignty of its neighbors. It appears stuck in its old habits.

Madaya siege marks Hezbollah’s eternal disgrace
Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
Last week, the media circulated a video of a Syrian boy called Mohammed, who said he had not eaten in days due to the siege on the town of Madaya. “I swear to God I’m hungry,” he said, but his withered face, protruding bones, voice and features were enough to convey the pain he feels due to hunger.
The Syrian regime and Hezbollah have besieged Madaya for months, and prevented anyone from leaving to get food. The siege marks the culmination of the scandal of the recent deal between the armed opposition on one hand, and the Syrian regime and Hezbollah on the other. The deal entailed a sectarian transfer of people from Zabadani, Kefraya and Al-Foua into Lebanon and Turkey. This evacuation took place at the end of last year, and we are now witnessing new chapters of it.
Media coverage
News, photos and videos from Madaya are gradually emerging. Some reports have highlighted exorbitant food prices, and residents having to eat cats and grass to stay alive. The World Food Organization (WHO) says starvation is a systematic policy practised by the regime and the opposition, and Madaya is suffering the most from this policy. Hezbollah’s lies in order to justify its defense of a criminal regime and its killing of Syrian civilians are falling apart. The media of the regime and Hezbollah are not concerned about the starving people of Madaya, completely ignoring what is happening there. However, as photos of death and suffering emerge, they have fought back by bringing up the fact that armed opposition groups have besieged Syrian towns such as Kefraya and Al-Foua. The fact that Hezbollah is besieging Madaya cannot be responded to by saying opposition forces are besieging Kefraya and Al-Foua. This despicable explanation, which some are using in order to defend the murder of Syrians by the regime and Hezbollah, does nothing but equate between murderers, though the regime and Hezbollah have done worse than everyone else in Syria. Hezbollah’s lies in order to justify its defense of a criminal regime and its killing of Syrian civilians are falling apart. Its siege of Madaya will come to an end, but the disgrace that will befall the party as a result of this crime will be eternal.

North Korea and the strategic distraction
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/January 12/16
While the first week of 2016 saw dramatic geopolitical shifts and sectarian hardening throughout the Middle East and Muslim world due to the Saudi-Iran confrontation, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), or North Korea, reportedly detonated a miniaturized hydrogen bomb followed by a sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM). These events were a perfect reminder of North Korea’s propensity for using strategic distractions to its advantage. A strategic distraction is when a country or non-state actor uses a major regional flare-up to conduct its own perfidious actions. Pyongyang’s New Year surprises caught everyone off guard - it should not have. Its ultra-nationalist Junche ideology is akin to Stalinist Russia or Japanese imperial militarism. Junche helps complete the DPRK narrative that the country is beset by enemies of impure races, especially the United States. North Korea believes it is a success in every facet of domestic and international security relations.
One should not think Pyongyang is isolated, despite reports that DPRK is a failed state. Malaysian interlocutors say the DPRK sends its citizens to Southeast Asia for computer training. South Korean interlocutors say it has a small army of medical doctors deployed to Africa. Pyongyang is also sending laborers under the guise of being Chinese to many of the world’s hot construction spots in order to earn income for the regime back home. In other words, the North Koreans are global, not locked in a cage. Pyongyang reads the Middle East quite well. Nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013 were timed with the standoff between Iran and the West regarding Tehran’s nuclear program
Pyongyang’s official media announced the successful detonation of an H-bomb to coincide with the upcoming birthday of leader Kim Jong Un. The newscasters produced a handwritten directive purportedly from him: “Let’s start 2016 with the thrilling sound of a first hydrogen bomb blast!”
DPRK political decisions are not sudden nor illogical. Pyongyang reads the Middle East quite well. Nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013 were timed with the standoff between Iran and the West regarding Tehran’s nuclear program.
Nuclear proliferation
Nuclear proliferation between the DPRK and Iran are well documented. Tehran relied on the DPRK for help with its nuclear program. North Korea is known to have assisted in fortifying a number of Iranian nuclear facilities against preemptive strikes. The DPRK has also reportedly dispatched hundreds of nuclear experts to work in Iran, and provided key nuclear software. Iranian nuclear scientists are known to frequent Pyongyang. The DPRK makes clear that it will retain its nuclear capability at all costs. In the wake of last week’s hydrogen bomb test, North Korean media said the fate of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi showed what happens when countries disown their nuclear weapons ambitions: “History proves that powerful nuclear deterrence serves as the strongest treasured sword for frustrating outsiders’ aggression.”Pyangyang’s test and SLCM launch are timely for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which degrades and destroys Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Missile proliferation by Pyongyang to Iran over the past decades is a known fact. In 1985, North Korea and Iran launched cooperative missile development, with the latter supporting the former’s production of 300-kilometer-range Scud-B missiles. Their deal expanded in the 1990s, when Tehran and Pyongyang began joint development of Iran’s Shahab medium-range missile, which is closely based on North Korea’s nuclear-capable No Dong. The JCPOA says nothing about ballistic and cruise missile technologies, and the West is finally waking up to this point. The United States is preparing sanctions against Iran in this regard. Gulf states, even more than the West, are well aware of this JCPOA lapse. Iran’s ballistic and cruise missiles are a danger to the region and beyond, and Pyongyang is in our minds constantly, even in the hotbed of the Middle East.

The war of assassinations in Syria
Had Haid/Now Lebanon/January 12/16
Fighters from the Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army), the foremost rebel group in Damascus province, look at picture of their late cheif Zahran Alloush who was killed on December 25, 2015, as they sit on the front line in Jobar, on the eastern edge of the Syrian capital on January 4, 2016. (Amer Al-Mohibany / AFP)
It has been common to frequently come across assassination incidents in local Syrian news, which turned them into expected news. The daily killing and atrocities committed in Syria contributed to normalizing this phenomenon not only internationally but locally as well. However, the scale of these incidents and their significant impact on the local dynamics of the conflict make the assassination war in Syria stand out as an important issue that can’t be ignored. Understanding the dynamics of this secret war and the motivation of its main actors may have a positive impact on mitigating the ongoing conflict and reducing the damage it may have on any future political solution in Syria.
It is extremely difficult to have a clear picture regarding the exact number of assassinations attempts in Syria due to the lack of systematic data collections and the secretive circumstances in which these attempts took place. However, there is a number of general observations that could be concluded from the published local news reports related to this issue in 2015.
The assassinations are not occurring equally all over Syria, as they are more frequent in Daraa and Idlib. According to a recent report, 105 people were assassinated between January and December in Daraa alone. The number of unsuccessful attempts is excepted to be higher, as not all attempts succeeded in eliminating their targets. There is no similar statistics available for Idlib; however it comes in second place according to a quick scan of public local media reports from the past three months. Moreover, the majority of assassination attempts are either done through planting explosive devices under the cars of the targets or by ambushing and shooting them.
Islamist figures and groups, namely Ahrar al-Sham, are the number one targets of assassination attempts. Killing Abu Rateb al-Homsi, a leader in Ahrar al-Sham, was the latest in a string of unsolved assassinations in rebel held territory. It is worth mentioning here that most of Ahrar al-sham’s top leaders were assassinated while they were meeting in one of the group’s secret locations. Some of these incidents may look like part of an unspoken war between two groups. For example, each of Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra were targeted three times in Idlib in July 2015. While it could be a coincidence that both groups were targeted by the same number of assassination attempts, there may be something more significant that needs to be read into further.
Additionally, assassinations are not limited to armed fighters or to territories inside Syria. At least 5 people were killed in Turkey in the past few months, four of which were media activists and a Free Syrian Army leader. There was a difference in the methods used in those incidents and the suspected parties behind them (three were slaughtered by ISIS, one was killed by an explosive device and the last one was shot in the head).
It was also observed that assassination attempts increase significantly in some periods more than others. In Daraa alone, 30 assassinations of local figures were documented in October 2015. These significant shifts may be related to the situation on the front lines, or to a specific occasion (negotiations or initiatives). For example, the recent assassination of Zahran Aloush, former leader of Jaish al-Islam, was perceived by many people as a Russian attempt to push the group from being part of the opposition negotiating delegation, in order to weaken the latter in the upcoming negotiations with the Syrian regime on January 25, 2016 in Geneva. There was also the case of the murder of Oussama al-Yatiem, the head of an influential court in Daraa, who was advocating for the creation of a joint court between all groups in Daraa. His assassination and the assassination of his deputy before him gave the impression that they became targets because of their initiative.
It has become a habit for groups to immediately link these incidents to sleeper cells affiliated with either Assad’s regime or ISIS or both, even before looking at the evidence. Part of this tendency is due to the systematic involvement of the Syrian regime and ISIS in secretly targeting and eliminating their opponents. Nonetheless, forever blaming the seemingly obvious enemy is certainly convenient, but whether there’s truth in such claims is far from evident. There are unconfirmed reports about the involvement of other armed groups and foreign actors and governments in this assassination war through local proxies. Jaish al-Islam was publically mentioned in videos published allegedly by a local hit man from Ghouta accusing the group of hiring him to eliminate a number of local armed groups’ leaders. The videos showed weapons, money and phone calls used in the planning and executing the assassination as well as the names of the targeted people. These videos were allegedly released because the hit man was scared of being eliminated by the group to protect its secrets. However, the group denied all these allegations without sending its members to undergo an independent investigation to clear its name.
In general, Sharia courts and armed groups in rebel areas do not show genuine efforts to hold assassins accountable for their actions, which is clear from the way they are handling the investigations. They do not normally reveal the results of the investigations, and they always tend to accuse the usual suspects, Assad and ISIS, because its convenient. However, this approach gives the impression that its so easy for perpetrators to get away and most likely to have a negative impact on stopping future assassinations. It may also harm any future political solution and intimidate groups or communities in order not to push them away from it. Therefore, a different approach should be adapted in dealing with these incidents in order to ensure accountability and future stability.
**Haid Haid is a Syrian researcher who focuses on foreign and security policy, conflict resolution and Kurds and Islamist movements.

Impending lifting of Iran sanctions worries Israel
Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/01.12.16/Israel Opinion
Analysis: Friday will see the removal of the sanctions regime imposed on Iran since 2007, and Russia is already deep in talks with Tehran on the sale of advanced weapons. Most of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran will be removed on Friday, US State Department officials said, while Russia readies the sale of advanced weapons to the Islamic Republic. January 15 will mark the end of the international sanctions regime, which has been in place since 2007 through a series of decisions by American Presidents George W. Bush and Barak Obama, legislation passed by the US Congress and in the European Union, and resolutions passed by the UN Security Council. These sanctions were put in place in an effort to hinder and thwart Iran's nuclear program. The American administration and the EU have already begun preparing the public for the diplomatic move: US Secretary of State John Kerry and his European counterpart, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, have announced over the past few days that the lifting of the sanctions would be done "in a matter of days." The decision to lift the sanctions is based on a report from IAEA inspectors submitted to world powers last month that confirmed Iran was indeed meeting its commitments to dismantle its nuclear capabilities, in accordance with the agreement it signed with the P5+1 group of nations - the US, the UK, China, France, Russia, and Germany.
$21 billion worth of weapons
In light of the impending lifting of the sanctions, the regime in Tehran announced it plans on rehabilitating the outdated Iranian military, which desperately needs to update and upgrade its weapons systems. The first country to get in line to do business with Iran is Russia.
A security delegation from Moscow is in the process of finalizing talks with the Iranian government, which began in March 2015, on the sale of Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets (considered the counterpart of the American F-15 jets) and advanced Yakhont (P-800 Oniks) anti-ship cruise missiles to Tehran.
Iran and Russia are also discussing the possibility of including in the arms deal advanced T-90 tanks, currently used by Russian forces in Syria. In addition, the two nations discussed restarting the production line of T-72 tanks, which were built by the Russians in Iran in the past.
Next month, Iran will receive the first shipment of the advanced aerial defense system S-300. The Iranians had purchased four units of the anti-aircraft S-300 system, which were removed from service in the Russian military, and have already received all of the supporting systems at the end of 2015, including the radar system. Also in line are the French, who are negotiating the sale of Dassault Rafale fighter jets with the Iranians.
Bolstering Rouhani
The EU and the US are in a rush to lift the sanctions because of the Iranian elections in February. The White House believes removing the sanctions, and the flow of cash expected as a result, could help bolster President Hassan Rouhani against the hardliners being supported by the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Senior Israeli officials, meanwhile, have accused the American administration of ignoring - knowingly and intentionally - the military aspects of the sanctions removal, saying Washington did not put any pressure on the Iranians on the development of strategic weapons - like long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The Iranians, it turns out, conducted two tests of ballistic missiles with a range of 1,800 kilometers, and even presented an underground depot of these missiles. Iran has been barred of arming itself with missiles that can carry unconventional warheads in the framework of the international agreements it signed. Despite that, the American administration rejected Congress' demand to condition the removal of the sanctions on supervision over the manufacturing of ballistic missiles in Iran. Israel views the public missile experiments conducted in recent months by Iran as a move meant to test international reaction - particularly the American one. President Obama's decision not to press Tehran on this issue encourages the Iranians to continue chipping away at these international agreements meant to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. By the way, it's unclear whether putting this issue on the UN Security Council's table would do any good: The Russians have already said they would veto any decision on Iran's ballistic missiles program.

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.january13.16.htm

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