LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 07/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today

Tell John what you have seen and heard: the blind receive their sight, the lame walk, the lepers are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, the poor have good news brought to them. And blessed is anyone who takes no offence at me.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 07/18-30: "John summoned two of his disciples and sent them to the Lord to ask, ‘Are you the one who is to come, or are we to wait for another?’ When the men had come to him, they said, ‘John the Baptist has sent us to you to ask, "Are you the one who is to come, or are we to wait for another?" ’ Jesus had just then cured many people of diseases, plagues, and evil spirits, and had given sight to many who were blind. And he answered them, ‘Go and tell John what you have seen and heard: the blind receive their sight, the lame walk, the lepers are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, the poor have good news brought to them. And blessed is anyone who takes no offence at me.’ When John’s messengers had gone, Jesus began to speak to the crowds about John: ‘What did you go out into the wilderness to look at? A reed shaken by the wind? What then did you go out to see? Someone dressed in soft robes? Look, those who put on fine clothing and live in luxury are in royal palaces. What then did you go out to see? A prophet? Yes, I tell you, and more than a prophet. This is the one about whom it is written, "See, I am sending my messenger ahead of you, who will prepare your way before you." I tell you, among those born of women no one is greater than John; yet the least in the kingdom of God is greater than he.’(And all the people who heard this, including the tax-collectors, acknowledged the justice of God, because they had been baptized with John’s baptism. But by refusing to be baptized by him, the Pharisees and the lawyers rejected God’s purpose for themselves.)"

I am now rejoicing in my sufferings for your sake, and in my flesh I am completing what is lacking in Christ’s afflictions for the sake of his body, that is, the church
Letter to the Colossians 01/24-29: "I am now rejoicing in my sufferings for your sake, and in my flesh I am completing what is lacking in Christ’s afflictions for the sake of his body, that is, the church. I became its servant according to God’s commission that was given to me for you, to make the word of God fully known, the mystery that has been hidden throughout the ages and generations but has now been revealed to his saints. To them God chose to make known how great among the Gentiles are the riches of the glory of this mystery, which is Christ in you, the hope of glory. It is he whom we proclaim, warning everyone and teaching everyone in all wisdom, so that we may present everyone mature in Christ. For this I toil and struggle with all the energy that he powerfully inspires within me."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january06-07.16.htm
Did Hizballah dig a special tunnel to get bomb into Israel/DEBKAfile/January 06/16
Analysis: Hezbollah 'revenge' for Kuntar likely done; ISIS could be next northern threat/Jerusalem Post/January 06/16
As 'cold war' with Saudis sharpens, Iran's Revolutionary Guards deliver warning/Reueters/Lerusalem Post/January 06/16
Mossad Of Israel: One of the world's most mysterious organizations gets a new boss/Ronen Bergman/Ynetnews/06/01/16
Iran’s aggression demands a harsh response/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
Iran: A tale of a bad neighbor/Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
Why revive Saudi Arabia for non-Saudis/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
Exposing Israel’s treatment of Palestinian child detainees/Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
Lessons We Palestinians Can Learn/Bassam Tawil/2016 Gatestone Institute/January 06/16
Opinion: Syria – a Study in International Cynicism/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/January 06/16

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january06-07.16.htm
Did Hizballah dig a special tunnel to get bomb into Israel?
Analysis: Hezbollah 'revenge' for Kuntar likely done; ISIS could be next northern threat
Salam 'May' Call Cabinet to Session Next Week
Al-Rahi Urges Officials against 'Relying on Foreign Powers' to Elect President
Army Repels Militant Attack in Arsal Outskirts, Inflicts Casualties
Berri Urges Activating Govt., Warns of Failure to Resume Dialogue Sessions
Rifi to Raad: Neither you, nor your Armed Party Can Decide who Has Place in Lebanon
Report: Kataeb, Hizbullah to Schedule New Round of Bilateral Talks
Bahrain Uncovers 'Terrorist Cell' Linked to Hizbullah, Iran

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january06-07.16.htm
Jordan Summons Iran Envoy over Saudi Embassy Attack
Iran Warns Saudi to Stop 'Adding Fuel to Fire'
Iranian Diplomats Leave Saudi Arabia
Iraqi Shiite Militias in Mass Anti-Saudi Protest
Erdogan Says Saudi Executions 'Internal Legal Matter'
Saudi Executes 49th Convict in First Week of 2016
Oman Regrets 'Unacceptable' Anti-Saudi Attacks in Iran
Tehran Executed Hundreds of Kurds
Abbas Dismisses Rumors on Possible Collapse of Palestinian Authority
20 Civilians Dead as Regime, Rebels Trade Fire in Damascus, Suburbs
String of Attacks Kill 20 Syria Rebel Commanders
Coalition Says December Air Raids Killed 2,500 IS Fighters
Ambiguity Shrouds Soldier's Fate amid Reports of Defection to Nusra
North Korea Says Conducted 'Successful' H-bomb Test
Security Council in Emergency Talks on N. Korea as Ban Urges Halt to 'Nuclear Activities'
Republicans Hit Out at Obama over N. Korea Nuclear Test
Boko Haram Kill Seven in Suicide Attack, Raid
New Mossad head: Iran remains Israel’s most significant challenge

Links From Jihad Watch Site for january06-07.16.htm
Hugh Fitzgerald: What do we want in the Muslim lands?
Reza Aslan wants to see a Muslim “All in the Family”; will he play Meathead?
Marco Rubio campaign advisory board on religious liberty includes Rick Warren, supporter of Hamas-linked ISNA
Nonie Darwish Moment: My New Year Wish List For America
Vatican spokesman: Islam teaches “non-violence in the name of God”
Canadian PM: We won’t bomb the Islamic State even if attacked
London Mayor: Worried about Islamic jihad terror? Remember the Alhambra

Did Hizballah dig a special tunnel to get bomb into Israel?
DEBKAfile Special Report January 6, 2016/The mystery of how Hizballah managed to plant the bomb, which blew up against an IDF patrol, without causing casualties, Tuesday, Jan. 5, in the Shebaa Farms district of Mt Hermon - on the Israeli side of the ceasefire line - is perplexing Israel’s military chiefs. It brought Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Yair Golan (former OC Northern Command) and his successor Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi to the Golan the next day for a close inspection of the Syrian and Lebanese border defenses. They found no fault with the meticulous preparations and counter-measures the contingents on the spot had made for an attack, which Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah had said was “inevitable” after the assassination of Samir Quntar in Damascus on Dec. 20. But, in addition, to the lookout posts scattered along the border, was a countermeasure that had been rated impermeable: an “electronic sterile area” abutting the electronic border fence, which has been strewn with hi-tech sensors and other devices designed to act as tripwires for the smallest intrusion. The fact that Hizballah was able to plant a bomb on the Israeli side of the border proved that this elaborate system did not work. The Shiite terrorist group, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, has long been known to maintain a commando unit known as the "Redwan Force,” especially trained for eventual incursions into Israel on missions of assault and the capture of Israeli locales with hostages. But its ability to outsmart an electronically sterile barrier was quite another matter. It is of the utmost urgency for IDF tacticians to seriously rethink the defensive measures in place on the northern borders with Syria and Lebanon, before Hizballah strikes again.  But first of all, they must find out how it happened. Some Lebanese sources are throwing out hints of a secret tunnel dug by Hizballah, through which the “Quntar Brigade” was able to sneak the bomb onto the IDF patrol route, although it failed to cause casualties. No trace of a tunnel has so far been reported. At the time of the incident, Israeli public and media attention was wholly taken up with the Dizengoff gunman, who murdered three Israelis on Jan. 1 and is still at large six days later. Since Hizballah’s Shebaa Farms attack was swiftly countered by massive IDF artillery fire, it was soon over and the episode relegated to back pages. However, the defense minister and IDF chiefs cannot afford to treat it lightly. They are convinced that Hizballah has not concluded its campaign of “revenge” and may reuse the same method for further attacks. No stone is therefore being left unturned to discover how Hizballah smuggled a bomb onto Israeli terrain - over or under the border - and the preparations for an attack remain high. At the end of his Golan inspection visit, the defense minister said: “The IDF is alert and fully prepared for every eventuality, just as it was for the Mt Dov (part of Mt. Hemon) attack. The forces are ready to respond whenever and however necessary and, if need be, their response will be powerful indeed.”

Analysis: Hezbollah 'revenge' for Kuntar likely done; ISIS could be next northern threat
Jerusalem Post/January 06/16/Chances are good that Hezbollah will walk away from its mini-escalation with Israel, following the alleged IAF strike on terrorist Samir Kuntar, satisfied that it made good on its threat to respond, while ensuring that its minor border attack did not open up a new front against it.
According to assessments within the Israeli defense establishment, it would make little sense for Hezbollah to strike again, and risk a major clash with Israel over Kuntar, a terrorist operative who was working for Iran, not Hezbollah, and who held no strategic value for the Lebanese Shi'ite terror organization.
Hezbollah remains heavily involved in the Syrian civil war, in which a third of its fighting forces have been injured or killed in action. Iran, which underwrites Hezbollah and nourishes it with weapons, expects it to focus on its current goals at this stage; To save the Assad regime, and protect its Lebanese home turf from Sunni jihadist organizations, rather than risk conflict with Israel that would expose it to massive Israeli firepower and shift the balance of power in Syria in favor of Sunni rebel organizations. Hezbollah, which has more surface to surface rockets and missiles than most states in the world, remains Israel's most formidable threat in the region. But weaker, radical Sunni organizations are more likely to try and attack from the north first. Emerging threats to watch are the heavily armed, Islamic State-affiliated Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade (Shuhada Al-Yarmouk), a group right on the border with the Golan Heights, which may choose to (unwisely) follow an Islamic State order to attack Israel in the future. Al-Qaida's Nusra Front, which is locked in an ongoing war with the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, is also not a particularly stable hostile entity, and could, for a variety of reasons, seek to turn its guns, bombs, and anti-tank missiles on Israeli targets on the Golan. Although these groups are fighting each other, as well as the Assad regime and Hezbollah, it is the radical Sunni actors, consolidating their presence on the border with Israel, who are more likely to strike first, and the IDF is deep in preparations for such a scenario

Salam 'May' Call Cabinet to Session Next Week
Naharnet/January 06/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam is awaiting the results of various political efforts to hold a cabinet session ahead of actually calling it convene, reported As Safir newspaper on Wednesday. He told the daily that he “may” call the cabinet to convene next week. “We are still counting on all sides' understanding of the need to complete some affairs that are linked to the people's daily lives,” he added. He hoped that the “upcoming obstacles” will be overcome, noting that “foreign circumstances” require us to “accomplish what we can” in order to preserve the government and internal situation. Salam's sources told the daily al-Mustaqbal that the potential cabinet session agenda will not have contentious articles “in an attempt by the premier to facilitate the people's daily needs.”They revealed however that the ongoing paralysis of the government has led to the accumulation of some one thousand articles. Cabinet had last convened in December to approve a plan to export Lebanon's waste, following months of disputes to reach a solution to the problem. Various differences among the political blocs in cabinet have hampered its meetings in wake of the ongoing vacuum in the presidency. Debates have erupted over its decision-making mechanism, most notably from the Free Patriotic Movement, which have thwarted attempts to hold any meetings for several months.

Report: Contacts over Presidency 'Frozen' due to Saudi-Iranian Tensions
Naharnet/January 06/16/Efforts to resolve the vacuum in the presidency have reached a standstill given the flare up of regional tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, reported As Safir newspaper on Wednesday. March 8 camp sources told the daily: “Contacts, most notably those on the presidency, are frozen until a breakthrough is reached between Riyadh and Tehran. “This deadlock will affect all other files, except the cabinet, which is awaiting serious efforts over the need to revitalize it,” they remarked. “Lebanon is therefore now in a waiting phase,” they noted. The next round of the national dialogue will reopen discussions on activating the government, they revealed to the daily. The dialogue is scheduled for Monday. Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia reached new heights over the weekend after the kingdom executed prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr on “terrorism” charges. The deterioration of relations saw the severing of diplomatic ties between the two countries. Some Arab states have also followed in Saudi Arabia's suit.

Al-Rahi Urges Officials against 'Relying on Foreign Powers' to Elect President
Naharnet/January 06/16/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi condemned on Wednesday the ongoing vacuum in the presidency. He said: “Officials should cease relying of foreign powers and instead focus on the election of a new head of state.” He made his remarks during the mass of the Epiphany. “Politicians should abandon their petty interests” and hold the presidential elections, demanded the patriarch from Bkirki. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. Media reports said in a recent days that the efforts to resolve the vacuum have reached a standstill in wake of the flaring tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran after the former executed prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr over the weekend on “terrorism” charges.

Army Repels Militant Attack in Arsal Outskirts, Inflicts Casualties
Naharnet/January 06/16/The army repelled Wednesday a militant attack on its posts in the outskirts of the northeastern town of Arsal near Syria's border, state-run National News Agency reported. “Militants from the armed groups tried to approach two army posts in Arsal's Wadi Ata and Aqabat al-Jurd, which prompted troops from the 5th Intervention Regiment to fire heavy weapons at them,” NNA said. The soldiers “stopped their advance and inflicted casualties on them as several of their vehicles were destroyed,” the agency added. Militants from the extremist Islamic State group and the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front are entrenched in mountainous regions along the porous Lebanese-Syrian border. The Lebanese army regularly shells their positions and Hizbullah fighters have engaged in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border. The fighters of the two extremist groups had stormed Arsal in August 2014 and engaged in bloody battles with Lebanese troops and policemen.They eventually withdrew after a ceasefire but took with them over 30 hostages from the army and the police, of whom four have been executed. Sixteen Lebanese servicemen were freed in a swap deal with al-Nusra in early December.

Berri Urges Activating Govt., Warns of Failure to Resume Dialogue Sessions
Naharnet/January 06/16/Speaker Nabih Berri warned Wednesday that the region is facing “dangerous challenges,” calling on Lebanese parties to immunize the country and activate the work of the paralyzed cabinet. “Amid the dangerous challenges that the region is witnessing, we must all seek to fortify our domestic stability and immunize our country,” said Berri during his weekly meeting with MPs in Ain al-Tineh. “There is a pressing need to revitalize our institutions in order to address people's affairs,” the speaker said. Turning to the issue of the presidential vacuum that has been running since May 2014, Berri stressed there is a need to “activate the work of the government, even if a president will be hypothetically elected in, let's say, 15 days.” “This election is now frozen” in light of the latest developments, Berri added. Commenting on Saudi Arabia's controversial execution of top Shiite dissident Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the speaker said he was “shocked” by the move, noting that it has triggered “profound political repercussions inside the kingdom and at the Lebanese, Arab, regional and Islamic levels.” In remarks published Wednesday in An Nahar daily, Berri had highlighted the importance of holding the national dialogue session next week, as well as the talks between Mustaqbal and Hizbullah, given the tensions in the region. He said according to his visitors: “Failure to hold any of the talks will negatively impact Lebanon.” “We should keep Lebanon away from strife,” he stressed. “Previously we strove to elect a president, but now our main concern has become the holding of dialogue sessions,” lamented the speaker. He stressed that he “will exert all efforts” to reactivate the cabinet “because it is no longer acceptable to idly stand by and watch the failure to elect a president and hold government and parliament meetings.”“The state is under threat,” he warned. The next round of the national dialogue is set for Monday, as is the next round of Mustaqbal-Hizbullah talks. Efforts to resolve the vacuum in the presidency have reached a standstill given the flare up of regional tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, reported As Safir newspaper on Wednesday. March 8 camp sources told the daily: “Contacts, most notably those on the presidency, are frozen until a breakthrough is reached between Riyadh and Tehran. “This deadlock will affect all other files, except the cabinet, which is awaiting serious efforts over the need to revitalize it,” they remarked. The Saudi-Iranian row has also sparked a war of words between Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal movement. On Monday, Hizbullah top lawmaker Mohammed Raad waged a blistering attack on Mustaqbal leader ex-PM Saad Hariri without naming him while also firing at the former premier's presidential initiative that involves nominating Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency.

Rifi to Raad: Neither you, nor your Armed Party Can Decide who Has Place in Lebanon
Naharnet/January 06/16/Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi condemned on Wednesday the recent remarks of Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad against Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri, urging him against adopting “intimidation” tactics. He said via Twitter: “Neither you, nor your armed party can decide who has a place in Lebanon or not.” “Lebanon belongs to us all,” he stressed. “You should once again return to being a Lebanese national like the rest,” the minister said. “You should know that intimidation through the use of arms will not work,” added Rifi. Raad had waged a blistering attack on Hariri without naming him on Monday, saying “those who are suffering from bankruptcy in their exile must not find a place to return to in Lebanon in order to rob the country once again.”He also fired at Hariri's presidential initiative that involves nominating MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency, noting that “the issue is not about a person whom we would give the presidential post to without him having any powers to rule the country with.”“All of the powers would be usurped by the person who is entrusted with preserving the interests of this kingdom or that state,” Raad added, referring to Hariri and Saudi Arabia.The latest remarks come amid a war of words between Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal linked to the Saudi-Iranian row that was triggered by Riyadh's execution of senior Shiite dissident Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.

Report: Kataeb, Hizbullah to Schedule New Round of Bilateral Talks
Naharnet/January 06/16/The Kataeb Party and Hizbullah are exerting efforts to hold a new round of talk between them, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. Informed sources told the daily that the date for the new round will be discussed on Thursday on the margins of the presidential elections session. The discussions will be held between Kataeb MP Elie Marouni and Hizbullah MP Ali Fayyad. The two parties have been holding occasional rounds of dialogue over the past few months. They were first revealed in the wake of MP Sami Gemayel's election as Kataeb president in June 2015. “There is dialogue between the Kataeb Party and Hizbullah and the sessions are being held every now and then,” Fayyad said at the time.
Lebanon

Bahrain Uncovers 'Terrorist Cell' Linked to Hizbullah, Iran
Naharnet/January 06/16/Bahrain announced on Wednesday that it has discovered a “terrorist cell” linked to Hizbullah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, reported al-Arabiya television. It said that the cell was plotting to carry out bombings in the country. The cell was headed by twins Ali and Mohammed Fakhrwari, it continued. Bahrain News Agency said that Ali Fakhrawi and two others had traveled to Iran and Lebanon at the end of 2011 to demand financial aid from Tehran and Hizbullah. “They met in Beirut's southern suburbs of Dahieh with Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and his deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem, where they proposed to them the idea of 'reviving' an Islamic movement,” it added. “They requested financial assistance to carry out their terrorist activity in Bahrain and they received encouragement from Nasrallah, who also gave them 20,000 dollars for their cause,” said the news agency. “Ali Fakhrawi traveled in mid-2015 to Iran, where he met members of the revolutionary guards, and later Lebanon where he met Qassem, who provided further support to his organization and other related terrorist groups,” it reported. The head of the cell is a fugitive residing in Iran, while Bahraini authorities succeeded in arresting six of its members, said al-Arabiya. Hizbullah and Bahrain's relation has witnessed tension since the beginning of a 2011 uprising in the kingdom as the party became a strong advocate of the popular protests. Ties between Lebanon and Bahrain reached an all-time low in 2011 when Nasrallah slammed the crackdown on the protesters. His remarks prompted the Bahraini authorities to suspend the flights of Gulf Air and Bahraini Air between Manama and Beirut for several months. Tensions between Hizbullah and Bahrain continued through 2015 with the Gulf Cooperation Council condemning in January 2015 Nasrallah remarks on the country as “incitement to violence and discord.”

Jordan Summons Iran Envoy over Saudi Embassy Attack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Jordan summoned Tehran's ambassador on Wednesday to protest weekend attacks on Saudi missions in Iran that set off a diplomatic crisis. Amman expressed its "strong condemnation" of Saturday's attacks by protesters on the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Iran's second city Mashhad, a foreign ministry spokesman told official news agency Petra. "The attacks on the Saudi embassy and consulate constitute a flagrant violation of international conventions," the spokesman said. Saudi Arabia and some of its Sunni Arab allies cut diplomatic ties with Iran following the attacks, carried out by protesters angry at Riyadh's execution on Saturday of prominent Shiite cleric and activist Nimr al-Nimr. The dispute between the Middle East's main rival Sunni and Shiite powers has raised widespread concerns of greater regional instability. Jordan, which is mainly Sunni and has close ties with Saudi Arabia, also condemned what it said was Iran's "interference in Arab countries' internal affairs," the spokesman said.

Iran Warns Saudi to Stop 'Adding Fuel to Fire'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Iran warned Saudi Arabia to stop working against it on Wednesday as their diplomatic crisis intensified despite efforts to defuse a row that has raised fears of regional instability. In the latest salvo in a dispute that has seen Saudi Arabia and some of its Sunni Arab allies cut ties with Tehran, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Riyadh must end its prolonged efforts to confront Iran. "For the past two-and-a-half years, Saudi Arabia has opposed Iran's diplomacy," Zarif said at a joint press conference in Tehran with Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
"Saudi Arabia has moved against our efforts and, unfortunately, they opposed the nuclear agreement," Zarif said. "This trend of creating tension must stop. We need to stand united... and stop those who are adding fuel to the fire." The spike in tensions comes after Iran last year secured a historic nuclear deal with world powers led by the United States, causing major concern in longtime U.S. ally Riyadh. The row between Saudi Arabia, the main Sunni power, and Shiite-dominated Iran erupted following Riyadh's execution on Saturday of prominent Shiite cleric and activist Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.His death sparked Shiite demonstrations in many countries including Iran, where protesters stormed and set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran and the kingdom's consulate in second city Mashhad. Riyadh cut ties with Tehran in response and was joined by several of its Sunni Arab allies including Bahrain and Sudan. The United Arab Emirates also downgraded relations with Iran and Kuwait recalled its ambassador. The row has raised fears of an increase in sectarian tensions in the Middle East that could derail efforts to resolve pressing issues including the wars in Syria and Yemen. The United Nations and Western governments have expressed deep concern, urging both sides to reduce tensions. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has made repeated calls to both Iranian and Saudi leaders.
"He is urging calm. He is stressing the need for dialogue and engagement, and thirdly, reminding that, again, there's lots of work to be done in the region," State Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters in Washington on Tuesday. "It's important to work through that tension, work through those disagreements, so that we can all work harder together on other issues which are affecting the Middle East writ large," he said. Cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is crucial in resolving a range of issues in the Middle East, where they are often on opposing sides. In Syria, Iran is supporting the government of President Bashar Assad against rebel groups, some backed by Saudi Arabia. In Yemen, Riyadh is leading a military intervention against Iran-backed Shiite rebels who have seized control of large parts of the country. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has also been in touch with Saudi and Iranian leaders to urge calm, and the Security Council has condemned the attack on Riyadh's diplomatic missions. On Tuesday, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani accused Saudi Arabia of focusing attention on the incident to "cover its crime" of executing Nimr. "We have never sought to create tension. We have always adopted a policy of interaction and dialogue," Zarif said, reiterating that the violent scenes at the embassy were "not justified"."All Iranian officials condemn it," he added.This week has seen several sectarian attacks in Iraq as the row escalated, including the bombings of two Sunni mosques, raising fears the country could plunge back into all-out civil conflict. "Some people want to create the spark that will reignite war among Iraqis and we must stop them because such acts only serve the enemies of Iraq," said Mohammed Abdelfattah, a Sunni cleric from the Iraqi town of Hilla where several attacks have taken place. Shiite-majority Iraq has close ties with Tehran. Jaafari, who was to hold talks later with Rouhani, said Iraq was seeking a potential diplomatic role to help resolve the crisis and echoed the concerns about sectarianism. "I have spoken to the foreign ministers of some of the Arab countries to reduce the consequences of this issue and prevent enemies from dragging the region into a war that can have no winners," Jaafari said. Media reports said his counterpart from Oman, which has often played a mediating role in the region, was also expected in the Iranian capital on Wednesday.
Oman's foreign ministry on Wednesday expressed its "deep regret" over the embassy attack but the country did not announce any measures against Iran. Nimr, one of 47 men executed on Saturday, was a driving force behind 2011 anti-government protests in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.He was arrested in 2012 after calling for two Saudi governorates to be separated from the kingdom.

Iranian Diplomats Leave Saudi Arabia
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Iranian diplomats have left Saudi Arabia after the kingdom severed all ties with Tehran following attacks on its mission in the Islamic republic, Saudi state media said on Wednesday. The staff of the Iranian embassy in Riyadh and those of the consulate in Jeddah left "on board a private Iranian plane," state news agency SPA reported. Iran's official state broadcaster IRIB said the diplomats have arrived in Tehran, showing pictures of their plane after it landed at Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport. It said the plane carried 54 Iranian diplomats and their families, who were welcomed by one of Iran’s deputy foreign ministers.Saudi diplomats in Iran returned to the kingdom on Tuesday, Saudi media reported. Riyadh severed diplomatic ties and air links with Tehran after angry crowds set fire to its embassy in the Iranian capital and its consulate in Mashhad. The weekend protests were in response to Riyadh's execution of leading Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, a driving force behind Shiite protests in 2011. The Iranian ambassador to Saudi Arabia Hossein Sadeghi was quoted on state television as saying that anger at Nimr's execution was natural but the response was not. "Although protest is a civil right, an assault on an embassy and infringing commitments can damage the image of the Islamic republic," he said. "This move was unacceptable and wrong and we should learn a lesson so that, while preserving the right to protest, such an act should not happen," he added.

Iraqi Shiite Militias in Mass Anti-Saudi Protest
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Two thousand members and supporters of Iraq's powerful Shiite militias demonstrated Wednesday against Saudi Arabia's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric which sparked a regional row. The protest was staged in central Baghdad at the same time that government officials were attending military parades for Army Day, which is a national holiday in Shiite-majority Iraq. The militiamen were also in their best uniform, carrying flags and banners bearing the portrait of executed cleric Nimr al-Nimr. Most of the big groups in the Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary force were represented, including Ketaeb Hezbollah (Brigades of the Party of God), the Badr Organization and Asaib Ahl al-Haq (League of the Righteous). "The boot of a Hashed is worth more than Saudi Arabia," chanted the crowd which gathered on Tahrir (liberation) square. "Many people say that Sheikh al-Nimr is a Saudi matter... and that Iraqis should mind their own business," said one protester, Mohammed al-Mandalawi. "But when it comes to religion, there are no borders," he said. The execution of Nimr on Saturday sparked outrage across the Shiite world and beyond. The Saudi embassy in Tehran was firebombed and the kingdom has since broken off ties with Iran. Earlier protests over Nimr's execution called on the Iraqi government to respond by closing down the newly reopened Saudi embassy in Baghdad. "Our demands to the Iraqi government are clear," said Maytham al-Allaq, a leader of the Waad Allah (Promise of God) militia. "They include the expulsion of the Saudi ambassador from Iraq and return of the Iraqi ambassador from Riyadh," he said. The Saudi ambassador, Thamer al-Sabhan, arrived in Iraq last week. The embassy had reopened days earlier, a quarter of a century after diplomatic relations were severed over Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Sabhan said that the Iraqi authorities were protecting the embassy. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's government has not so far hinted at any move towards breaking off ties with Riyadh. One Iraqi official pointed out that during eight years of war between 1980 and 1988, relations between Iraq and Iran were never severed and their embassies never closed down.

Erdogan Says Saudi Executions 'Internal Legal Matter'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday refused to condemn Saudi Arabia for its execution of 47 convicts including a prominent Shiite cleric, saying it was an "internal legal matter" of the kingdom. "The executions in Saudi Arabia are an internal legal matter. Whether you approve or not of the decision is a separate issue," Erdogan said in a televised speech, his first reaction to the controversy which has raised tensions between Saudi Arabia and its regional rival Iran. Erdogan had last month visited Riyadh for talks with King Salman and the political elite, in a new sign of Ankara's warm ties with the kingdom. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim powers, share the same vision over the conflict in Syria where they believe only the ousting of President Bashar Assad can bring an end to almost five years of civil war. Meanwhile, tensions have increased between Turkey and mainly Shiite Iran, which along with Russia is the key remaining ally of Assad. The crisis began at the weekend when Saudi Arabia executed prominent Shiite cleric and activist Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr as well as 46 other convicts, prompting a furious reaction from Tehran.
Iranian protesters then ransacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Riyadh, Bahrain and Sudan severed relations with Tehran while Kuwait recalled its ambassador. Erdogan dismissed suggestions that the executions were aimed at provoking tensions with Shiite Muslims and also said the attack on the Saudi mission was "unacceptable.""Only three (of those executed) were Shiites," said Erdogan. He also questioned also "why the world did not react" to the condemnation of "thousands of people to death" following the ousting in Egypt of former president Mohamed Morsi, an ally of Ankara. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Monday urged Iran and Saudi Arabia to calm tensions, saying the hostility between the two key Muslim powers would only further escalate problems in an explosive region. But Erdogan's comments contrasted with those Monday by Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus, who is also government spokesman, that "death penalties, especially ones that are politically-motivated, are of no help to making peace in the region."Turkey formally abolished the death penalty in 2004 as part of its bid to join the EU.

Saudi Executes 49th Convict in First Week of 2016
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Saudi Arabia on Wednesday executed a citizen convicted of murder, raising to 49 the number of death sentences carried out in the first week of 2016, the interior ministry announced. Saud bin Mohammed al-Shalwi was convicted of shooting dead Mohammed bin Safar al-Harithi following a dispute, the ministry said in a statement published on the official SPA news agency. He was executed in the western city of Taif, it said. On Saturday, the kingdom executed 47 men convicted of "terrorism", including Al-Qaida-linked militants and Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, whose death has prompted a diplomatic row with Iran. Saudi Arabia on Sunday cut ties with Iran after protesters against Nimr's execution torched the kingdom's diplomatic missions in the Shiite-dominated Islamic republic. In 2015, Saudi Arabia executed 153 people convicted of various crimes, including drug trafficking, up from 87 in 2014, according to AFP tallies. Amnesty International says the number of executions in Saudi Arabia last year was the highest for two decades. However, the number is way behind that of Iran and China. Under the kingdom's strict Islamic legal code, murder, drug trafficking, armed robbery, rape and apostasy are all punishable by death. Most executions in the kingdom are carried out by beheading with a sword.

Oman Regrets 'Unacceptable' Anti-Saudi Attacks in Iran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Oman on Wednesday said it regretted the "unacceptable" attacks on Saudi missions in Iran but did not announce any measures against the Islamic republic, after some Gulf nations downgraded diplomatic ties. The Omani reaction comes four days after protesters torched Riyadh's embassy and its consulate in Iran over Saudi Arabia's execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent Shiite cleric accused of fomenting sedition in the Sunni-ruled kingdom. The sultanate "expressed its deep regret" over the attacks, which it described as "unacceptable" in a foreign ministry statement published by the official ONA news agency. Oman stressed the "need to find new rules that prohibit any form of interference in the internal affairs of other countries." The sultanate is known for its historically strong ties with Iran but is also a member of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia. Media reports in Tehran said Oman's foreign minister was expected in the Iranian capital on Wednesday. The assaults on its missions prompted Riyadh on Sunday to break off diplomatic ties with Iran and order its diplomats to leave the kingdom. Saudi allies Bahrain and Sudan have followed suit and the United Arab Emirates downgraded its ties with Tehran. Kuwait on Tuesday recalled its ambassador from Iran to protest attacks while also summoning Tehran's ambassador to express its disapproval of them. Qatar, another GCC member, also "strongly condemned" the attacks, but like Oman it did not take any measures.

Tehran Executed Hundreds of Kurds
Dalshad Abdullah/Asharq Al Awsat/January 06/16/Kurdish opposition sources in Iran have revealed yesterday that the executions carried out by the Iranian regime against the Kurds and other components are increasing annually, indicating that during the past nine months, according to the Iranian calendar, executed more than 750 people, majority of whom are Kurdish. These parties condemned the Iranian campaign against Saudi Arabia, and demanded the international community to end his silence regarding the crimes committed by the regime in Tehran against humanity, particularly the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran the night before last.Vice president of Iranian Kurdistan Freedom Party and commander of the military wing of the party, Hussein Yazdan Bina told Asharq Al-Awsat that Since Ayatollah Khomeini’s revolution and up until now, executions of Kurdish citizens in Iran did not stop. Kurds are the only ones who are currently being executed by the regime in Tehran because of their political opinions. “In order to hide the facts from the international public opinion, the Iranian regime fabricated the charge of narcotics trafficking. In reality, trafficking is being carried out by Iranian authorities and by officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian Intelligence in a project to suppress the Kurdish people in Iran. Iran has deluded the international community into thinking that the executions are not based on political grounds”, he said. Yazdan Bina also pointed out that the nuclear deal concluded by Tehran with the great six powers has set the Iranian regime into carrying out more execution campaigns against the execution of Kurds in eastern Kurdistan (Iranian Kurdistan). According to Iranian Opposition sources, the Iranian regime executed annually hundreds of Kurds, Sunnis, Azeris, Turkmen and followers of other religions from Jews, Christians, Baha’is, Aliarsanyen (followers of an ancient Kurdish religion). The majority of those executed in Iran was of the Kurds because the majority of Iranian Sunnis are Kurds.

Abbas Dismisses Rumors on Possible Collapse of Palestinian Authority
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed Wednesday weeks of rumors that the Palestinian Authority could collapse, saying he would "never give up" on it. Abbas, 80, was speaking publicly for the first time since rumors surfaced last week that he was in poor health, which the PA has categorically denied. He did not discuss the matter and appeared well. He also spoke as three months of violent attacks by frustrated Palestinian youths on Israeli targets have made the PA and its leadership appear increasingly out of touch. The PA, the governing authority set up under the 1993 Oslo peace accords with Israel , has faced funding shortages, and its ongoing security cooperation with the Israelis has been heavily criticized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing a contingency plan in the event of the PA's collapse, according Israeli media reports. "I have heard a lot of talk in the past few days about the Authority, the destruction of the Authority, the collapse of the Authority," Abbas said. "The Authority is an achievement of ours that we will never give up." "Don't dream of its collapsing, don't even dream," he told a press conference during a lunch during a lunch to mark Christmas, which some Orthodox churches celebrate on Thursday. The PA was meant to be a temporary body until a fully independent Palestinian state was created, but more than two decades after Oslo young Palestinians see little hope of the dream becoming reality -- and many do not feel Abbas represents their concerns. In a recent poll, two-thirds of Palestinians said they believed a new armed uprising, or intifada, would serve "national interests" better than negotiations. Abbas refused to countenance an end to the PA.Answering a question about what will happen after the PA, Abbas said "the Authority is here, and after it comes the (Palestinian) state. No one has any other scenarios, and we will not accept another scenario from anyone."

20 Civilians Dead as Regime, Rebels Trade Fire in Damascus, Suburbs
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Government and rebel bombardment killed at least 20 civilians and wounded dozens in the Syrian capital and a nearby opposition bastion on Wednesday, state media and a monitoring group said. Mortar rounds fired from the rebel-held Eastern Ghouta region onto residential areas of Damascus left eight civilians dead and 23 wounded, the official SANA news agency reported. The attack came after the regime fired rockets onto the Eastern Ghouta town of Douma earlier in the day, killing five civilians, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitor. Eastern Ghouta, which is largely controlled by the Jaish al-Islam (Army of Islam) rebel group, is regularly bombarded by government forces. Seven other civilians, including a child, were later killed in government air strikes on the nearby towns of Hazzeh and Zamalka, the Observatory said.
The monitor also gave the same toll as state media for the attack on Damascus and said some of the wounded there were in critical condition. More than 260,000 people have been killed since Syria's conflict erupted in 2011 with protests against President Bashar Assad's government.

String of Attacks Kill 20 Syria Rebel Commanders
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/At least 20 rebel commanders, most of them hardline Islamists, have died in Syria since early December in a string of mysterious targeted killings, a monitor said on Wednesday. The commanders have been killed in roadside bombs or shootouts, but no faction has claimed responsibility for their deaths. Analysts say they could be part of an assassination campaign carried out by either the regime of President Bashar Assad or the Islamic State group. On Tuesday, Abu Rateb al-Homsi, a provincial "emir" in the Ahrar al-Sham hardline opposition group, was killed when unknown attackers fired on his car in the central province of Homs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Homsi is the most high-profile of those killed, most of whom come from the ranks of al-Qaida's Syria affiliate al-Nusra Front and hardline groups like Ahrar al-Sham. "The assassinations have intensified since the beginning of December, but it's unknown who carried them out," said Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman.  Among the dead, seven were leading officers in al-Nusra, which has a strong presence in northern and southern Syria, as well as outside the capital, Abdel Rahman told AFP. Hussam Ammura, al-Nusra's emir in the besieged Palestinian camp of Yarmuk in southern Damascus, was killed on December 22. Abu Julaybib, a Jordanian national and al-Nusra's emir in the southern Daraa province was killed on December 4. Ahrar al-Sham has had two senior members killed this month: Homsi, and Abdel Qader Dabaan, a commander in the northwest province of Idlib. Another six leading hardline figures with close ties to Ahrar al-Sham and five non-Islamist commanders have also been assassinated since early December, Abdel Rahman said. Ahrar al-Sham and al-Nusra have formed a strong alliance in northwest Syria, where they have fought both regime forces and IS. According to Thomas Pierret, a Syria specialist at the University of Edinburgh, "the regime and its allies are by far the main suspects" in the killings. "One of the components of the counter-insurgency strategy implemented by Russia since September is the decapitation of the insurgent leadership," he added. With help from their Russian ally, intelligence services in Damascus have been able to gather better information on senior rebel figures, Pierret said. But another possibility, he said, is that IS "sleeper cells" carried out the killings. "Real or suspected supporters of IS are regularly targeted by rebels in the northernmost parts of Homs province, where Abu Rateb (al-Homsi) was assassinated," according to Pierret. Syria's conflict began in March 2011 with anti-government demonstrations, but it has spiraled into a multi-sided war.

Coalition Says December Air Raids Killed 2,500 IS Fighters
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/The U.S.-led coalition that has been carrying out air strikes against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria killed about 2,500 jihadists last month, a military spokesman said Wednesday. The Pentagon has previously been wary of giving body counts, but ednesday's figures come as officials hope to portray the IS group as being on the defensive after the jihadists suffered a series of setbacks -- including last week's loss of the Iraqi city of Ramadi. "In December, we estimate approximately 2,500 enemy fighters were killed in coalition air strikes across Iraq and Syria," Baghdad-based military spokesman Colonel Steve Warren told Pentagon reporters. He said that since coalition air strikes began in August 2014, the IS group had lost as much as 22,000 square kilometers (8,500 square miles) -- or about 40 percent -- of the territory it once held in Iraq, and about 10 percent, or 2,000 square kilometers, of the land it claimed in Syria. "We believe that ISIL is now in a defensive crouch," Warren said, using an alternative acronym for the jihadists. "Probably in May was really when they reached their culminating point of offensive operations. Since then all they have really managed to do is lose ground."When the size of the so-called caliphate the IS group proclaimed 18 months ago was at its largest, Iraq accounted for a slightly bigger part of it than Syria. A variety of Iraqi forces have reclaimed major urban centers, including Ramadi. Warren said several, squad-sized groups of IS fighters remained in uncleared Ramadi neighborhoods. He claimed Iraqi troops had killed 60 IS fighters in the city in just the past 24 hours. Though the number of slain IS members is significant, the jihadists have been able to fill their ranks almost as fast, especially with disaffected young men from economically and politically crippled Muslim countries in the region. The United States last year estimated there were between 20,000 to 30,000 IS members operating in Iraq and Syria, and Warren repeated that assessment Wednesday. Despite suffering defeats, the IS group has pushed for new gains elsewhere, including in strife-torn Libya where the jihadists are trying to seize coastal export terminals. An ongoing strategy for the anti-IS coalition has been to strike the oil infrastructure the group uses to fund its operation. Warren said the jihadists' oil production has been cut by nearly 30 percent, down from 45,000 barrels per day to 34,000.

 Ambiguity Shrouds Soldier's Fate amid Reports of Defection to Nusra
The fate of Lebanese soldier Mustafa Nasser Nasser is still unknown, a month and a half after he went missing after leaving the post of the army's 8th Infantry Brigade in the northeastern border town of Arsal, a report said on Wednesday. Mustafa did not return to his parents' home in the town of Beit Hawik in the northern Dinniyeh district on that day, LBCI television said. “According to the military institution’s account of events, Nasser, who was born in 1995, sent an SMS to his father – a retired army soldier – in which he apologized over his 'decision', informing him that he chose 'his path' by joining the al-Nusra Front organization,” LBCI said. When the father tried to convince him to reverse his decision, also via SMS messages, Nasser turned off his cellphone permanently,” the TV network added, quoting the army. Meanwhile, the soldier's family issued a statement Wednesday in which it noted that it still considers its son to be “abducted” and that it has provided the Army Command with all the information and messages it has received about him. LBCI quoted relatives of the soldier as saying that the family had received a phone call from a “non-Lebanese number during which a man claimed that he is the soldier and that he is kidnapped.”Meanwhile, General Security sources told the TV network that the agency has recently arrested A. Nasser, “a relative of the missing soldier who hails from the same town,” describing him as Mustafa's “handler.”The detained man “had established ties with al-Nusra Front ever since he visited Syria and underwent military training with the group,” LBCI quoted the sources as saying. If confirmed, it will not be the first case of defection from the military institution in recent years. In October 2014, Lebanese soldiers Mohammed Antar and Abdullah Ahmed Shehadeh announced their defection to al-Nusra in separate videos. The first time a Lebanese soldier defected to the Qaida-linked group was in July that year. Another soldier defected to the extremist Islamic State group also in late 2014. Militants from the IS and Nusra are entrenched in mountainous regions along the porous Lebanese-Syrian border. The Lebanese army regularly shells their positions and Hizbullah fighters have engaged in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border. The fighters of the two extremist groups had stormed Arsal in August 2014 and engaged in bloody battles with Lebanese troops and policemen. They eventually withdrew after a ceasefire but took with them over 30 hostages from the army and the police, of whom four have been executed. Sixteen Lebanese servicemen were freed in a swap deal with al-Nusra in early December.

North Korea Says Conducted 'Successful' H-bomb Test
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/North Korea said Wednesday it had carried out a "successful" miniaturized hydrogen bomb test -- a shock announcement that, if confirmed, would massively raise the stakes in the hermit state's bid to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. The announcement triggered swift international condemnation but also skepticism, with experts suggesting the apparent yield was far too low for a thermonuclear device. "The republic's first hydrogen bomb test has been successfully performed at 10:00 am (0130 GMT)," North Korean state television announced. "We have now joined the rank of advanced nuclear states," it said, adding that the test was of a miniaturized device. The television showed North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's signed order -- dated December 15 -- to go ahead with the test, with a handwritten exhortation to begin 2016 with the "thrilling sound of the first hydrogen bomb explosion". South Korean President Park Geun-Hye condemned what she called a "grave provocation" and called for a strong international response as the U.N. Security Council called an emergency meeting. The North's main ally China voiced its strong opposition, while the White House said it was still studying the precise nature of the test and vowed to "respond appropriately". A hydrogen, or thermonuclear, bomb uses fusion in a chain reaction that results in a far more powerful explosion than the fission blast generated by uranium or plutonium alone.
Last month Kim suggested Pyongyang had already developed such a device.
The claim was questioned by international experts at the time and there was continued skepticism over Wednesday's test announcement, which took the international community by surprise. "The seismic data that's been received indicates that the explosion is probably significantly below what one would expect from an H-bomb test," said Australian nuclear policy and arms control specialist Crispin Rovere. The test, which came just two days before Kim Jong-Un's birthday, was initially detected as a 5.1-magnitude tremor at the North's main Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the northeast of the country. The weapons yield was initially estimated at between six and nine kilotons -- similar to the North's last nuclear test in 2013. The first U.S. hydrogen bomb test in 1952 had a yield of 10 megatons. Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst with the Rand Corporation, said if it was an H-bomb that was tested, then the detonation clearly failed -- at least the fusion stage. "If it were a real H-bomb, the Richter scale reading should have been about a hundred times more powerful," Bennett told AFP. South Korea's defense ministry also told reporters it doubted Wednesday's explosion was thermonuclear in nature. There were expressions of concern but no public panic on the streets of Seoul, where people have become largely inured to North Korea's provocations over the years. Most experts had assumed Pyongyang was years from developing a hydrogen bomb, while assessments were divided on how far it had gone in developing a miniaturized warhead to fit on a ballistic missile.
Whatever the nature of the device, it was North Korea's fourth nuclear test and marked a striking act of defiance in the face of warnings from enemies and allies alike that Pyongyang would pay a steep price for moving forward with its nuclear weapons program. The three previous tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013 triggered waves of U.N. sanctions. Their failure to prevent a fourth detonation will put the Security Council under intense pressure to take more drastic action this time around. It throws down a particular challenge to U.S. President Barack Obama, who, during a visit to South Korea in 2014, vowed sanctions with "more bite" if Pyongyang went ahead with another test. The final response of China, North Korea's economic and diplomatic patron, will be key. Beijing has restrained U.S.-led allies from stronger action against Pyongyang in the past, but has shown increasing frustration with its refusal to suspend testing.
In an initial reaction the foreign ministry in Beijing said it "firmly opposes" the nuclear test, which was carried out "irrespective of the international community's opposition". "Beijing will face increased pressure both domestically and internationally to punish and rein in Kim Jong-Un," said Yanmei Xie, the International Crisis Group's senior analyst for Northeast Asia. But China's leverage over Pyongyang is restricted by its overriding fear of a North Korean collapse. "A nuclear-armed North Korea is uncomfortable and disturbing," Xie said. "But a regime collapse in Pyongyang leading to mass chaos next door and potentially a united Korean peninsula with Washington extending its influence northward to China's doorstep is downright frightening."China wants a resumption of six-party aid-for-disarmament talks on North Korea, insisting that engagement with Pyongyang is the only way forward. The six-party process, involving the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia, has been in limbo since 2008. Pyongyang's latest test has almost certainly hammered the final nail in its coffin.

Security Council in Emergency Talks on N. Korea as Ban Urges Halt to 'Nuclear Activities'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/The U.N. Security Council met Wednesday for emergency talks to condemn North Korea after its claim of a successful hydrogen bomb test -- a shock announcement that, if confirmed, could raise the stakes in Pyongyang's bid to beef up its nuclear arsenal.
The 15-member council was considering further sanctions against Pyongyang over the surprise nuclear test that UN chief Ban Ki-moon said was "deeply troubling" and "profoundly destabilizing for regional security."The test drew swift condemnation from the international community, including from China, the North's main ally, and Washington, which said it was still studying the precise nature of the test and vowed to "respond appropriately."The announcement also triggered skepticism, with experts suggesting the apparent yield was far too low for a thermonuclear device. North Korean state television said "the republic's first hydrogen bomb test" had been "successfully performed at 10:00 am (0130 GMT)." "We have now joined the rank of advanced nuclear states," it said, adding that the test was of a miniaturized device.State television showed North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's signed order -- dated December 15 -- to go ahead with the test, with a handwritten exhortation to begin 2016 with the "thrilling sound of the first hydrogen bomb explosion." South Korean President Park Geun-Hye condemned what she described as a "grave provocation" and called for a strong international response.Ban said he "unequivocally" condemned the underground test and demanded that North Korea "cease any further nuclear activities."
Push for more sanctions
The U.N. Security Council was meeting behind closed doors at the request of the United States and Japan, who were pushing for a new UN draft resolution on further sanctions. "We will be working with others on a resolution on further sanctions," British Ambassador Matthew Rycroft told reporters. The council was expected to issue a strong statement of condemnation, but any further measures hinged on the response from China, a veto-wielding council member. Beijing has restrained US-led allies from stronger action against Pyongyang in the past, but has shown increasing frustration with the North's refusal to suspend testing. In an initial reaction, the foreign ministry in Beijing said it "firmly opposes" the nuclear test, which was carried out "irrespective of the international community's opposition."The three previous tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013 triggered waves of UN sanctions.
Skepticism
The new test, which came just two days before Kim's birthday, was initially detected as a 5.1-magnitude tremor at the North's main Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the northeast of the country. The weapons yield was initially estimated at between six and nine kilotons -- similar to the North's last nuclear test in 2013.
A hydrogen, or thermonuclear, bomb uses fusion in a chain reaction that results in a far more powerful explosion than the fission blast generated by uranium or plutonium alone. Last month, Kim suggested Pyongyang had already developed such a device. That claim was questioned by international experts at the time, and there was continued skepticism over Wednesday's test announcement. "The seismic data that's been received indicates that the explosion is probably significantly below what one would expect from an H-bomb test," said Australian nuclear policy and arms control specialist Crispin Rovere. The first U.S. hydrogen bomb test in 1952 had a yield of 10 megatons. Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst with the Rand Corporation, said if an H-bomb was actually tested, the detonation clearly failed -- at least the fusion stage. "If it were a real H-bomb, the Richter scale reading should have been about a hundred times more powerful," Bennett told AFP. South Korea's defense ministry also told reporters it doubted Wednesday's explosion was thermonuclear in nature. There were expressions of concern but no public panic on the streets of Seoul, where people have become largely inured to North Korea's provocations over the years. Most experts had assumed Pyongyang was years from developing a hydrogen bomb, while assessments were divided on how far it had gone in developing a miniaturized warhead to fit on a ballistic missile.
Gesture of defiance
Whatever the nature of the device, it was North Korea's fourth nuclear test and marked a striking act of defiance in the face of warnings from enemies and allies alike that Pyongyang would pay a steep price for moving forward with its nuclear weapons program. The North's official news agency was unrepentant.
U.S. "imperialists" had escalated the situation on the Korean peninsula to the brink of war, defying the North's calls for a peace treaty, it said. "The more frantic the hostile forces get in their moves to isolate and stifle the DPRK (North Korea), the stronger its nuclear deterrent will grow, bringing them to deathbed repentance." The final response of China, North Korea's economic and diplomatic patron, will be key in determining the international community's next step. "Beijing will face increased pressure both domestically and internationally to punish and rein in Kim Jong-Un," said Yanmei Xie, the International Crisis Group's senior analyst for Northeast Asia. But China's leverage over Pyongyang is restricted by its overriding fear of a North Korean collapse. "A nuclear-armed North Korea is uncomfortable and disturbing," Xie said. "But a regime collapse in Pyongyang leading to mass chaos next door and potentially a united Korean peninsula with Washington extending its influence northward to China's doorstep is downright frightening."

Republicans Hit Out at Obama over N. Korea Nuclear Test
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/U.S. Republicans clamored to paint North Korea's surprise nuclear test as yet another failure of Barack Obama's foreign policy Wednesday, rounding on the outgoing president as he faced a stern new overseas challenge. "Our enemies around the world are taking advantage of Obama's weakness," presidential contender Senator Marco Rubio said, blasting the 44th president for standing "idly by" as a "lunatic" leader in Pyongyang threatens international peace. Another White House hopeful, Senator Ted Cruz, said the test "underscores the gravity of the threats we are facing right now and also the sheer folly of the Obama/Clinton foreign policy," referring to former secretary of state Hillary Clinton. "When we look at North Korea, it's like looking at a crystal ball. This is where Iran ends up if we continue on this same misguided path." Republicans vying to replace Obama in 2017 have accused him and Clinton -- the Democratic presidential frontrunner -- of lacking resolve. They claim meekness and vacillation has created a void that the Islamic State group, Russia, China, Iran and now North Korea have stepped into. "Dictators like Kim Jong-Un don't take time outs -- they take advantage when the U.S. looks away," said House foreign affairs committee chairman Ed Royce. Obama came to office in 2009 vowing to extricate the United States from costly foreign wars and signaling Washington would no longer rush headlong into every global crisis. Administration officials say the policy is borne from a more steely-eyed approach to the US national interest. The United States has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea in response to Pyongyang's past nuclear and missile tests staged in violation of UN resolutions.

Boko Haram Kill Seven in Suicide Attack, Raid
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/16/Boko Haram gunmen have mounted their first attacks since Nigeria's government declared them "technically" defeated, killing seven people in a raid and suicide bombing, residents told AFP Wednesday. The attacks happened on Tuesday in the northeastern state of Borno, near the Islamists' Sambisa Forest hideout, where the army is looking to flush out remnants of the rebel group. President Muhammadu Buhari, who has made crushing the rebellion a priority, in December said a sustained counter-offensive had reduced the group's ability to strike effectively. The first attack happened in Izgeki village, said one resident, who gave his name as Isyaku, from the town of Mubi in neighboring Adamawa state. "I received information from my relatives who fled the attack... that some Boko Haram gunmen on bicycles attacked Izgeki across the river from Izghe on Tuesday morning where they killed two people. "The attack forced villagers to cross the river into Izghe. The gunmen pursued them. One of them who had a suicide belt on him blew himself up near the market, killing five people." Izghe was previously attacked in February 2014 where more than 100 people were killed as the rebels torched homes, opened fire and set off explosives. Thousands of residents fled the attack into Adamawa towards the town of Madagali and elsewhere but following the army's recapture of territory, some managed to return and begin reconstruction. Izghe is in the district of Gwoza, which Boko Haram captured in August 2014 and which the group's shadowy leader Abubakar Shekau declared the center of its self-styled caliphate. Ayuba Chibok, an elder in the town of the same name, said there was also an attack in the nearby village of Nchiha at about 10:00 pm (2100 GMT) on Tuesday. "Luckily no-one was hurt but they (Boko Haram gunmen) looted food and burnt a large part of the village," he added. Residents managed to flee. Boko Haram kidnapped some 276 girls from their school in Chibok in April 2014 in a daring raid that captured world attention. Fifty seven escaped soon afterwards but 219 are still being held.

New Mossad head: Iran remains Israel’s most significant challenge
Jerusalem Post/January 06/16/Iran continues to be Israel's primary and most significant challenge despite, in fact, even because of the nuclear deal it signed with the world powers, new Mossad head Yossi Cohen said on Wednesday. Cohen's comments came at a ceremony, attended by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, marking his first day in his new post. He took over from Tamir Pardo, who served as Mossad chief for the last five years and also attended the ceremony. “Israel is located at the center of the earthquake that has hit the Middle East in recent years,” Cohen said. “Fundamentalist Islamic extremism is washing over states, and leading to their collapse.”Cohen said that the internal religious battles within Islam, as well as the strengthening of the terrorist organizations, makes it incumbent upon the Mossad to understand those threats, thwart them, and to contribute to Israeli security “discretely and with creativity.”Iran continues to call for Israel's destruction, he said. “It is is improving its military capabilities and deepening its hold in our region. Terror proxies are a means to further those aims.”According to a statement put out by the Prime Minister's Office, the Mossad under Pardo placed a focus on thwarting Iran's nuclear capabilities, preventing terrorist attacks and the development of terrorist infrastructure around the world, fighting the smuggling of weapons to terrorist organizations, and developing and promoting ties with states with whom Israel does not have diplomatic ties. Netanyahu, who said that Israel is facing more challenges than any other country in the world, said the country is a “bastion of Democracy in the heart of a neighborhood full of threats. “The first imperative to ensuring the survival of any living thing, is to identify dangers in time, and beat them back,” he said., adding that he approved the “great majority” of the operations that Pardon bought for his approval. Pardo, who marked the end of some three decades in the Mossad, characterized it as an organization where no mission is impossible, and where there is no problem without a solution. There are good reasons why dozens of intelligence organizations around the world want to cooperate with the Mossad, he said.Cohen, who for the last three years served as Netanyahu's national security adviser, is also a 30-year veteran of the Mossad who rose through the ranks and held a wide variety of positions, including director of the department responsible for running agents around the world. On Wednesday Netanyahu announced that Yaakov Nagel will serve in the interim as Cohen's replacement as head of the National Security Council, until a permanent replacement can be found. Nagel is currently deputy deputy director for defense and strategic policy in the NSC.

As 'cold war' with Saudis sharpens, Iran's Revolutionary Guards deliver warning
Reueters/Lerusalem Post/January 06/16
BEIRUT/DUBAI - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was quick to condemn the execution of Saudi cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, stating: "Without a doubt, the hated Saudi regime will pay a price for this shameful act."
For an organization deeply involved in wars in Syria and Iraq this looks no idle threat, at least in the eyes of Sunni Gulf Arab states like Saudi Arabia who say Shi'ite rival Tehran is bent on undermining their security.
The Guard's furious comment is not a call for direct conflict with Riyadh, something neither country wants. But it is a reminder to Gulf Arabs that the IRGC, with connections in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the region, has many ways to wage the long cold war between Tehran and its Arab foes.
Tehran denies interfering in Arab lands. But the Quds Force, the arm of the Guards that operates abroad, has contributed fighters, weapons and military supplies to back Iran's interests and policies across the region.
That prospect is worrying for a region where conflicts or political crises from Lebanon and Syria to Yemen, Iraq and Bahrain involve proxies of both powers who are at daggers drawn. A day after the IRGC issued its statement, which described Saudi rulers as "terrorist-fostering, hated and anti-Islam", Riyadh broke off diplomatic relations with Tehran, escalating a contest for power that underpins the region's turmoil. There is no firm indication that Iran's factionalized leadership has agreed how far it should go to avenge the death of Nimr -- who was one of 47 people executed by Saudi Arabia on Saturday -- and what methods should be used. But whatever steps are authorized, the Guards are likely to be involved, although as orchestrators more than direct participants, experts say. "The Guard will not respond directly," said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.
RIVALRY
"They have their operatives, their people, their connections everywhere in the region who will answer what the Saudis did and actually escalate. Iran is in a very strong position to respond in the Saudi Arabian eastern province. And they can do a lot in Bahrain." Moderate voices on both sides do not have an interest in seeing the situation escalate into a full conflict, experts say. And yet the rivals often compete indirectly through allies, which lends the contest an element of unpredictability: Some Iranian proxies may be encouraged by the tough rhetoric coming from Tehran to carry out attacks not sanctioned by the Guard. "Both sides are loath to see tensions spiral out of control. They are more likely than not to prevent this cold conflict from deteriorating into a hot one, while stepping up their proxy wars across the region," said Ali Vaez, the senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. "But with tensions reaching new heights, now more than ever, they run the risk of unintended direct confrontation."The Quds Force has gained valuable military experience in recent years and now plays a dominant role within the IRGC, experts say. In some cases, Guard fighters and their Shi'ite proxies have fought against Sunni groups directly supported by Saudi Arabia in Syria and Iraq. The IRGC has also established intelligence networks among the Shi'ite populations in the Gulf states. It has the potential to undermine Saudi Arabia and its allies' interests using sympathetic Shi'ites to stir political unrest or engage in violent attacks, experts say. Saudi Arabia has a sizable Shi'ite community in the east of the country, while the majority of Bahrain's citizens are Shi'ites who live under a Sunni monarchy. A failed uprising which began in Bahrain in 2011 was largely focused on gaining more democratic rights for the country's Shi'ites. In the Guards' statement, they warned that the youth and Muslims of Saudi Arabia would take "tough revenge" which would lead to the fall of the Saudi government. The Iranians could also revive the resentment that drove the Bahrain uprising.
RED LINE
"I think the Iranians think they can actually have a victory in Bahrain which would be a red line for the Saudis," said a Western diplomat in Beirut who asked not to be identified. "A key part of the Iranian narrative is that Bahrain is a majority Shi'ite nation that is being oppressed and not allowed democracy."
The bulk of Iran's tough rhetoric has come from hardline groups like the Guards, some of whom have also criticized the nuclear deal agreed with world powers last year aimed at lifting most sanctions against the country.
More diplomatic isolation is not good news for pragmatic Iranian President Hassan Rouhani who, with the blessing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pushed for the deal in order to expand Iran's ties with the international community. Rouhani managed to normalize ties with the West somewhat through the deal and started the new year with an optimistic tweet hoping that in 2016 countries can "look for reasons to make peace, not excuses for hostility." But now facing the biggest diplomatic crisis of his government, Rouhani might not be able to persuade the Guards to dial down their paramilitary activism in favor of diplomacy. That could lead the Guards to push their allies within Saudi Arabia to carry out violent attacks. "Should the IRGC desire to use terrorism on Saudi soil to retaliate against the House of Saud, the IRGC is likely to find it easier to find recruits among the Shi'ite in Saudi Arabia," said Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an expert on the Revolutionary Guards. It is unlikely the Guards would do much to hit Saudi interests in Syria or Iraq. But harsh anti-Saudi rhetoric from Iran may spur some of the militias trained and armed by Tehran to act on their own, experts say.
ANGRY MILITIAMEN
"Iran has created a Frankenstein with the Shi'ite militias in Iraq," said the Western diplomat in Beirut. "When you keep emphasizing this notion of Saudi Arabia and its proxies oppressing Shi'a -- and you've got these angry militiamen -- at some point they're going to be out of Iran's control. There's always the risk of that kind of escalation." For their part, the Saudis could boost their financial and military support to Sunni militant groups in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to counter the Iranian threat, experts say. Still, it would be difficult for the Saudis to prevail in a political and diplomatic showdown with Iran, experts say.
"The fact that the Saudis have decided to sever their diplomatic relations with Iran means that they are, in their own minds, ready for an all-out confrontation with Iran," Khashan said. "There is nothing the Saudis can do to destabilize Iran whereas the Iranians on the other hand have every means conceivable to destabilize Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, namely Bahrain."

Mossad Of Israel: One of the world's most mysterious organizations gets a new boss
Ronen Bergman/Ynetnews/06/01/16
Wednesday will be Tamir Pardo's last day as head of the Mossad. How was Israel's secret service run under Pardo, who succeeded the famed but controversial Meir Dagan? Who is Yossi Cohen, the national security advisor and one of PM Netanyahu's closest associates, who will replace him, and what revolution did he bring to the organization when he was in charge of recruiting and operating its agents around the world? Ronen Bergman offers a peek into the secret world of Israeli spies.
An elegant brown wooden pole, named "The Mossad Rod," is respectfully stored in a closed room in the Mossad headquarters north of Tel Aviv. Displayed on one of its ends is the secret organization's symbol and its famous slogan, borrowed from a verse in the Book of Proverbs (11:14): "Where no wise guidance is, the people falleth; But in the multitude of counselors there is safety.." The bottom of the pole is encircled by 10 golden rings, each of them bearing the name of one of the Mossad chief who ended their terms.
On Wednesday morning, the "Mossad Rod" will receive a new ring, its 11th one, and the name of the organization director ending his term that day, Tamir Pardo, will be imprinted on it.
No. 1 Spy
New Mossad chief: Netanyahu's real foreign minister / Ron Ben-Yishai
Analysis: The prime minister's decision to appoint his national security advisor, Yossi Cohen, as the secret service's new director reflects his clear preference for secret relations with countries that have no official diplomatic ties with Israel and with foreign intelligence communities.
Full analysis
While the rings are identical, each represents a completely different term. There is a deep difference between Pardo's term and the term of the owner of the preceding ring, Meir Dagan. It's reasonable to assume that the term of Yossi Cohen, who will replace Pardo that day and become the 12th Mossad director (the seventh to have grown within the organization) will be completely different, if only because of the major personality and outlook differences between them, alongside the regional environment in which the Mossad is required to operate and is undergoing dramatic and swift changes - the Arab Spring, the Iranian nuclear project challenge and the influence of the Islamic State.
When Cohen takes office, he will make history: The first Mossad chief to have grown and operated in the organization throughout almost all his years of activity, commanding Junction (Tzomet in Hebrew), the organization's biggest department which is responsible for recruiting and operating agents. Traditionally, most of the Mossad directors' bureau chiefs came from that department, but the head of the organization had never been appointed from there.
Cohen will be making further history due to the fact that for the first time, a head of the National Security Council is being promoted to a higher position and is not ending his career in that position.
The Mossad which Yossi Cohen is taking charge of Wednesday is a large organization, one of the biggest intelligence organizations in the Western world, which deals with a diverse and difficult target list. According to the Mossad charter, the organization's goals are: "Secretly collecting information (strategic, diplomatic and operative) outside the State's borders; conducting special operations beyond the State of Israel's borders; stopping hostile countries from developing unconventional weapons and arming themselves with them; thwarting terrorist activities against Israeli and Jewish targets abroad; bringing Jews from countries which are preventing them from immigrating and creating a defense framework for the Jews in those countries."
The definition of these goals clarifies just how different the Mossad is from other intelligence organizations: It is not only required to provide intelligence, but also to carry out special operations; it is responsible for both intelligence relations and diplomatic relations with countries which do not have open ties with Israel; it is required to protect not only the citizens of the State of Israel, but sees itself as the defender of all Jews in the world, and as an organization required to help smuggle Jews from hostile countries.
There has never been another intelligence service in the history of mankind which has been forced to engage in so many missions, which are so different from each other.
Cohen is arriving at this position after two prominent and strong-minded Mossad chiefs, who shaped the organization according to their image and outlook. In 2002, then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided that he was looking for someone with "a knife between his teeth" for the organization's leadership, and decided to give the job to his subordinate and associate from the IDF, Meir Dagan.
After a period which was considered drowsy under Mossad chief Efraim Halevy, Dagan sent the entire organization into a state of operational madness. He narrowed down and emphasized the organization's list of targets, opened the organization to cooperation with moderate countries in the Middle East, which see the situation in the region as Israel sees it, and mainly pushed for more and more operations. The Mossad went back to being an important player vis-à-vis other intelligence organizations in Israel and vis-à-vis colleagues in the United States and Europe.
Dagan, a man with particularly sharp senses, realized that the war is against enemies, but it also over consciousness. The thunderous operations attributed to the Mossad made his workers proud and perpetuated once again the myth about the most mysterious, efficient and lethal organization in the world. After every headline about a mysterious blast or assassination which no one knew who was behind but assumed it was the Mossad, the organization's website nearly collapsed with so many requests flowing in from candidates.
During that period in Dagan's term, Yossi Cohen made a name for himself as a meteor in the skies of the Mossad. Then, about 10 years ago, we wrote that he would make a possible candidate to serve as head of the organization one day.
As it is forbidden to identify active Mossad personnel by name under Israeli law, we gave the senior organization officials nicknames. We called Cohen "the model" due to his handsome appearance and meticulous clothing (he was the only one who had the courage to wear pink shirts in the ultra conservative Mossad working environment, and with cufflinks, no less). This nickname, which was later criticized as superficial and objectifying, was well received and many in the Mossad and the intelligence community began referring to Cohen that way.
Cohen himself, upon joining the Mossad in the early 1980s, chose the operational nickname "Callan," after the tough, brilliant, and sarcastic hero of a spy series from the 1970s, who does not hesitate to use the most aggressive methods, including torture and assassinations, in order to protect the United Kingdom's citizens. It wouldn’t be a wild guess that Cohen saw himself as very similar to that "Callan."
Yossi Cohen was raised in a religious family in Jerusalem and studied in a yeshiva. To this very day he (partially) and his family (fully) observe a religious lifestyle and he is very knowledgeable about the Mishnah and debates of Jewish wisdom.
He completed a case officers' course, one of the organization's three most important courses in which cadets learn how to recruit and run agents. Cohen stood out in the course thanks to his skills and was considered an outstanding student. One of the course instructors was legendary agent case officer, Yehuda Gil, who later nearly got Israel involved in a war in Syria when he brought false information from a "top agent" in the heart of the Syrian General Staff, which did not really exist, about a Syrian preemptive strike.
It is because of people like Gil and the tremendous abilities of case officers to manipulate that these people and this profession have always been treated in the Mossad with a certain amount of suspicion, which some sources see as the reason for non-appointments for the position of Mossad chief to this very day.
Cohen served as an agent recruiter and handler in Paris, and later as the head of the Mossad branch in a different European country. He was perceived as a rising star and as always being slightly different.
He did not only perform a job which appears partially similar to James Bond's job, but also looked, acted and spoke with Bond's smoothness. Cohen has a lot of charisma, plenty of personal charm, an ability to sweep people away and an ability to understand how they can be operated and manipulated. But he is also considered quite a difficult colleague and boss, and quite a few of the people who have worked with him suffered from his sarcastic tongue. He is not ashamed of the fact that he is a tough and demanding commander.
In 2000, he decided to take an unpaid leave from the organization in favor of private business and in order to dedicate more time to his children, including Yonatan, who has cerebral palsy (but still enlisted with the IDF and reached an officer's rank in an intelligence unit). In 2002, Cohen rejoined the Mossad in a new position, head of Junction's Special Operations Center, in which he achieved greatness.
As part of the center, a new and fascinating method was developed to adapt the ancient profession of agent operation to the modern era. Thanks to the combat doctrine which Cohen co-founded and led, the Mossad succeeded in infiltrating and hitting its main targets. Junction won five consecutive Israel Defense Prizes, the highest decoration awarded in this area, thanks to this method, which is so secret we can’t even mention its name. One of the prizes was personally given to Cohen for a key operation he initiated and commanded.
Meir Dagan was fond of Cohen (although the two argued often) and promoted him again and again. In 2006, Dagan appointed Cohen as head of the Junction Department and put him in charge of large parts of the Mossad's main target in the past 15 years: Infiltrating and harming Iran's nuclear program.
Junction's activity was incorporated into countless operations that the Mossad had to execute, based on information collected by, among others, the agents recruited by Cohen and his people. During this period, the Mossad succeeded in locating deliveries of equipment and raw material from around the world for the Iranian nuclear program. Some of these shipments were sabotaged. Some were seized in the countries they departed from after the Mossad, in cooperation with the American intelligence, warned of their existence.
Anonymous entities succeeded in planting lethal viruses in the nuclear project's computers and were able to locate six of the 15 senior scientists of the "weapon group," the military part of the nuclear program, and assassinate them. Israel never admitted its connection to any of this. But if the Mossad was indeed behind all of these operations, as the Iranians believe, Yossi Cohen played an important part in them.
Dagan's passion for operations carried a price. He often got into credit and authority quarrels with senior AMAN (IDF Military Intelligence Crops) and Shin Bet (Israeli General Security Agency) officials. The significant increase in the organization's manpower and activity generated a resonating failure: The Mossad's screening and control system completely missed the tragic Ben Zygier affair - the Mossad worker who got involved in terrible acts, was exposed, arrested and committed suicide in prison after realizing that his wife was about to leave him and that he would likely receive a two-digit-year prison term.
The significant increase in the volume of operations led to an exposure of the assassins and the methods of action in the assassination of Hamas activist Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai in January 2010. And if some press reports are true, different operational mistakes led to the exposure of joint Israeli-US Operation Olympic Games - now the Iranians know that sophisticated viruses hit their nuclear facilities.
Pardo inherited the fallout of all this, alongside Dagan's extremely strained relationship with Netanyahu. After the Dubai affair, the prime minister grew very hesitant in his approval of such complicated and risky operations. Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon did say recently (in a very subtle hint in an interview to Holger Stark and myself in Der Spiegel) that "I am not responsible for the life expectancy of Iranian nuclear scientists," but there is no doubt that since the Dubai operation the public has been hearing much less about assassinations, sabotages and mysterious accidents in the Iranian nuclear program.
Netanyahu believed that the Mossad's activity may have well been utilized to the fullest and that he should consider a massive (and open) aerial strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Dagan thought otherwise and got into a serious conflict with Netanyahu. On his last day in office on January 6, 2011, in a very unusual move, he summoned a group of journalists to the Mossad headquarters and presented us with his criticism against the prime minister in detail. In that same conversation, Dagan estimated that "Mubarak's regime in Egypt is more stable than over" and that he would be succeeded by his son Gamal.
Dagan wasn’t the only one who failed to predict Mubarak's fall about a month later. The entire world and its intelligence services completely missed the Arab Spring, which became one of the key challenges that Dagan's successor, Tamir Pardo, had to deal with. The series of revolutions in the Middle East, which many right-wing elements and military personnel in Israel very quickly termed as a "Jihadist Winter," reshuffled the region and turned it into a place where it is more unclear than ever who are your friends and who are your enemies.
Pardo changed the organization's perception. He introduced clear measures for examining Israel's ability and the Mossad's success in thwarting the Iranian nuclear project. According to his perception, there is no point in counting how many nuclear scientists have ceased to live, but how far Iran actually is from the bomb.
Secrecy, as far as Pardo is concerned, is not just an ideology but also a strategy. According to his perception, an operation exposed in the media - be it the most successful operation - is in fact a failure. A reported incident attributed to the Mossad, Pardo believes, will lead to an investigation and to the exposure of ways of action and operational methods. It's true that buzz-creating headlines in the press about spine-tingling operations attributed to the Mossad produce important deterrence as well. But as far as Pardo is concerned, the enemy can be targeted - and deterred - through other, less thunderous means.
In a world which has become accustomed to reality shows, this is not a popular approach. It is not so good for newspaper headlines. On the other hand, the fact that in the past five years we have heard about less "mysterious explosions" and operations in the heart of the target countries, which are attributed to the State of Israel, does not mean that there have necessarily been less operations. A lot has happened in the past five years, and only very little has been published. Sometimes, the calm on the outside covers up a lot of secret action.
During Pardo's term, the Mossad succeeded in thwarting dozens of attempted terror attacks in joint operations of the Iranian intelligence and Hezbollah in a bid to avenge the death of Imad Mughniyeh by targeting Israelis and Jews outside the State of Israel and the Middle East.
Pardo devoted a special effort to the prevention of the smuggling of weapons and equipment to Hamas, the Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah. The Israeli media are forbidden to report such issues, but press reports outside Israel attribute dozens of attacks on these supply routes in Sudan, Libya, Syria and Lebanon to the Israel Air Force. If the reports are true, it was Pardo's Mossad which provided the information.
The Mossad was able to provide Netanyahu with a lot of information on the secret talks conducted by the United States with Iranian representatives behind Israel's back in Muscat, Oman, and later with information from the talks between Iran and the world powers, information which alarmed Netanyahu when he discovered that the West had withdrawn during the talks from many of the red lines he had set.
The changes in the Arab world forced the Mossad to adapt itself at a record pace. For example, to adjust to the security relations with the Mohamed Morsi regime in Egypt, and later to the Abdel Fattah al-Sisi regime, and to Turkey's abandonment of the intelligence relations with Israel, in favor of developing security relations with Greece and other countries.
Pardo also executed a series of important structural changes. He established three administrations - technology, operations and intelligence - which coordinate all the activity on these issues. While in the past the special operations division, Caesarea, operated as a Mossad within the Mossad, completely isolated and separated, it is now subject to the operations administration and incorporated into the operations of other departments. Pardo also invested a lot in the technological areas, while at the same time greatly increasing the number of case officers in the organization - evidence of the importance he ascribes, even in today's cyber era, to the classic field of human intelligence.
Pardo also improved the relationships with other security bodies in Israel. His relations with IDF Chiefs of Staff Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot and Air Force Commanders Ido Nehushtan and Amir Eshel were particularly close. Pardo's relationship with the Shin Bet was not as close but still polite and efficient, as was his relationship with the police, which the Mossad provided with guidance and help, particularly in the cyber sphere.
Pardo was unable to avoid one phenomenon which characterized Dagan's last days in office: A strained relationship with Netanyahu, particularly in terms of how to handle Iran and its agreement with the West. During many discussions, Pardo was among the only ones, if not the only one, who dared to speak honestly to the prime minister, even when his comments contradicted his doctrine.
Upon Pardo's appointment as Mossad chief, Netanyahu appointed Cohen as his deputy. The relations between Cohen and Pardo in the two and a half years in which they served as Mossad chief and his deputy were not great.
According to the Mossad's internal covenant, and in order to ensure continuous leadership in case the Mossad chief travels abroad, has lost contact or is unable to continue functioning, the deputy must be exposed to the all the information in the Mossad chief's hands. Cohen has been heard claiming that Pardo is excluding him or at least avoiding giving him essential roles and authorities. Pardo's associates argued that the Mossad chief felt Cohen was trying to act behind his back in order to ensure that he would be the one to replace the Mossad chief in due course.
In August 2013, when Cohen ended his term as deputy Mossad chief, Netanyahu announced his appointment as national security advisor, saying that "Cohen's special skills make him highly worthy of the position."
Yossi Cohen took a huge and triple gamble when he accepted Netanyahu's offer. First of all, because the position of national security advisor has almost always been the last in a person's career, and in any event, it was not seen as a step to a higher position in the defense establishment.
Secondly, because Cohen aimed to use the position in order to close gaps in areas which he had not dealt with before in the Mossad - foreign relations, analysis and strategy - but the National Security Council's unclear status did not guarantee that he would succeed in closing those gaps.
Thirdly and most importantly, the person in that position has to work very closely with the prime minister. Such closeness to the boss could yield results in two opposite directions. The numerous hours he spent with Netanyahu, who is known as quite a difficult boss, to say the least, could have also developed differently.
Only few people have managed to survive and maintain good relations with Netanyahu for such a long period of time. But Cohen, who is a master in interpersonal relations, won Netanyahu's trust.
On the other hand, Cohen managed to get into arguments with other important players such as senior Shin Bet and IDF officials and some politicians. At least partially, Cohen is not to blame. Netanyahu simply paints everyone in his own colors, and the ones who were incapable of criticizing Netanyahu saw Cohen as a convenient punching bag.
Cohen's gamble paid off, and about a month ago Netanyahu announced that he had he found Yossi Cohen to be "the most suitable person with leadership skills and professional understanding" to lead the Mossad in the next five years.
Now he must prove that it was the right decision. Cohen will have to continue the same process he dealt with in the Junction Department - adjusting to the time and place, but not just as a middle-ranking commander in one division, but as head of the entire organization.
The Mossad's main challenge remains Iran. It's very possible that in the coming years, perhaps even earlier, Israel will have to make a tough decision on this matter. Now, after the agreement between Tehran and the West, Israel has been left alone, Netanyahu has been left alone, to decide whether - given established information, if and when it arrives, that Iran has re launched the military angles of its nuclear project - to order an attack on the atom facilities or to accept Iran's existence as a radical Shiite nuclear power. What will Cohen advise him in this deliberation?
Iran has been at the top of the Mossad's assignment list for 15 years now, but Cohen's challenge is relatively more complicated than the challenges faced by Dagan and Pardo. First of all, because the Iranian intelligence is much more aware of what the Mossad is capable of doing - from plating lethal viruses in computers operating the centrifuges to assassinating nuclear scientists.
Secondly, because the current prime minister approves much fewer dangerous operations compared what he approved until the Dubai operation and definitely compared to what his predecessors, Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, approved.
Thirdly, because the United States, which helped Israel significantly in the past decade, is now sanctifying a diplomatic dialogue with Iran and has not only almost completely halted the active intelligence cooperation (as opposed to exchange of information) with Israel on the Iranian issue, but is also indicating that it is unhappy with some operations conducted by Israel on its own.
Dealing with the Mossad's other preferred target - the regional terror linked to Iran and Syria (Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad) includes new challenges as well. For example, Hezbollah's claims that it exposed a key agent for Israel in its foreign operations Unit 910, and that Israel succeeded in killing Imad Mughniyeh and foiling the attempts to avenge his death thanks to information received from that man. Beyond the credit that should be given to the Mossad for managing to recruit the man in the first place, if the reports are true, then this is a significant loss and perhaps partial blindness towards the organization.
Hamas, on its part, has moved its headquarters to places where the Mossad would find it difficult to carry out aggressive activity, such as Turkey, which will definitely not accept assassinations of Hamas leaders on its territory (the Turks suspect that Israel's flames were the ones which burned a hole in the interior of one of the protest vessels they had planned to send following the Mavi Marmara affair).
Another Mossad mission, a very difficult one, is protecting Israeli representatives and Jewish facilities around the world. Such targets have been attacked by both Hezbollah and the Islamic State. It seems like a serious threat, but "it will be much more difficult and complicated for the Mossad to operate in the West nowadays," says a former senior Mossad official. "We are not just talking about the risk coming from a few PLO factions, like in the 1970s, but about numerous global jihad organizations and cells, which are weakly linked, if at all, and thousands of ISIS volunteers who are about to return from the Middle East.
"Besides, this time, unlike in the 1970s, Europe's intelligence services are also trying - doing a better or not as good job - to operate on the exact same targets, and they really wouldn’t want the Mossad to get in their way.
"And one more thing. In the current political climate and the negative attitude towards Israel, assassination attacks which were forgiven at the time, even if they failed, would not be forgiven today."
ISIS is an international challenge. The Mossad is interested in being involved in the efforts to tackle it. More than a decade ago, Israel made a certain contribution to the war on al-Qaeda, the West's main rival at the time. For example, it was thanks to an Israeli intelligence source that the Americans knew about the decision made by Osama bin Laden and his deputy and successor upon his death, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to pack up and withdraw from their activity in the West.
If Yossi Cohen wishes to be considered as a partner for conversation with equal rights in today's intelligence community, he must provide added value from the Mossad, unique information about the Islamic State organization.
The Mossad can provide the West, and mainly the United States, with further value by monitoring the manner and abilities of the old-new guest in the region - the Russian army and Putin's intelligence community, which are strengthening their foothold in Syria. The US has few intelligence abilities in this area, particularly in the human field. If the Mossad is able to close at least some of the gaps, the CIA will be grateful.
Another field is the world of cyber which is taking the lead from all worlds of intelligence. The Mossad's ability to fight the fourth dimension has been greatly improved thanks to Cohen's serious competitor for the position of Mossad chief, N., who served as head of the Mossad's technological division for a long and important period of time and left the position recently. During that period, the division tripled its manpower and became involved in countless operations for the first time in its history.
It was a major leap forward, but the development of the cyber world requires the Mossad chief to vigorously invest more and more in this field, where the attackers have the upper hand these days.
Cohen said recently in a lecture that Israel doesn’t have a "conventional" enemy (in other words, a regular army with tanks, planes and ground forces) which poses a serious threat and that such a war is not expected soon. That's true, but there is also a capable enemy in the world of cyber, and the Iranians - as Military Intelligence Chief Herzl Halevi warned recently - are closing the qualitative gap with Israel in this area. The Mossad's job is to discover their plans and abilities in this field.
The relations between the prime minister, who is in charge of the Mossad, and the organization's director are critical. Without trust, the Mossad will find it difficult to function. But excessive closeness is not a good thing either. Prime Minister Golda Meir had too much faith in the heads of the intelligence services and the IDF and got the Yom Kippur War - the surprise attack by Arab states in October 1973. Prime Minister Menachem Begin trusted the IDF and Mossad's promises that the Christians in Lebanon would help Israel "get rid" of the PLO members and ordered the tragic invasion of Lebanon in 1982 which got Israel entangled in 18 years of occupation.
Excessive closeness can be harmful not only at times of war but also in missing the opportunity for peace. Meir Amit, the third Mossad director (1963-1968), determined, as he told me once, that "the Mossad must also be the one to advance peace, rather than just engage in preparations for war and victory." He launched a battle against Prime Minister Levi Eshkol, demanding that he be allowed to travel to Egypt and meet with the minister of defense, Field Marshal Abdel Hakim Amer, after a secret project which led to the establishment of secret ties with him, but failed. The Six-Day War broke out a year later.
There is a difference, an important difference, between all the roles Cohen has filled until now and his next role at the top of the pyramid. He has nowhere to advance from here. It's very difficult, even for a prime minister, to oust a Mossad or Shin Bet chief once they have begun their job. The Mossad chief must report to his supervisor, the prime minister, but he must also report to his thousands of subordinates, the ones he meets every day when he arrives at the Mossad chief's bureau.
The Mossad people are known to be critical and sarcastic, as Cohen himself, and they won’t spare him their criticism if he becomes a person who only fulfills the desires of the prime minister, who is leading a policy which many in the Mossad perceive as right-wing and wrong, if not more than that.
Among quite a few of the directors of Israel's intelligence arms throughout the years, assuming the position and the confidence which came along with it later on led to a significant change, to the development of an independent opinion and stance which they insisted on, even vis-à-vis a strong-minded prime minister or defense minister with little patience for disagreements.
Will Cohen establish an independent and assertive opinion too? Will he also lead secret diplomatic moves? Only time will tell. In the Mossad's case, to be more accurate, time may tell - but only a small circle of people who are in on the secret.


 

Iran’s aggression demands a harsh response
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
The gloves are off. Not content with boasting that it controls certain Arab capitals and using militias to destabilise others, the Islamic Republic of Iran has passed the point of no return by directly interfering in Saudi Arabia’s internal affairs. The Kingdom is a country of laws that must be respected by all regardless of their sectarian affiliations and in a region fraught with danger, Saudi’s zero tolerance for terrorists and those inciting people to violence regardless of whether they are Sunni or Shiite, should be applauded. Nimr Al Nimr, a Shiite preacher, admitted his crimes and is seen on videos whipping up violence and sedition. He was tried in a court of law and sentenced just as the others who received the same fate were. There was no sectarian bias involved when the other 46 individuals were Sunnis. Condemnation from Tehran rings hollow when it has been accused by human rights groups of being on a hanging spree. Just last month, a woman was sentenced to death by stoning. Since the so-called moderate President Hassan Rowhani took office over 2,000 prisoners, including Sunnis, have been hanged (700 in the first half of last year alone, according to Amnesty International). Many are cruelly pulled up by their necks on cranes where their bodies are left dangling for all to see and there are reports that some have taken up to 20 minutes to die. In March, 33 Sunni men were on death row and six were executed for “enmity of God”, a charge Amnesty International says was fabricated. As the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir revealed in a press conference on Sunday, the Iranian authorities organized shifts of thugs to storm and torch the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in the Iranian city of Mashad ignoring repeated requests from Saudi diplomats for protection.
Pariah state
This flies against all diplomatic norms and proves once again that Iran is a pariah state and an unfit partner within the community of nations. Iran’s lawless character has not changed since the days of the American embassy siege that endured for 444 days during 1979 when authorities stood by as a mob attacked the British embassy in Tehran in 2011. This blatant infringement of Saudi sovereignty was compounded by rhetoric from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who arrogantly tweeted “Divine revenge will seize Saudi politicians” as though he believes he is God’s mouthpiece. Only Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) was honoured with the task of revealing God’s will. Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned the Kingdom would pay a high price for its actions, a threat which cannot go unanswered. Such vicious statements and behaviours can be construed as an act of war. For sure Khamenei has encouraged Shiite communities in Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain to take to the streets in protest and galvanized his Lebanese puppet Hassan Nasrallah to spout fiery anti-Saudi rhetoric amid chants of “Death to the Al-Saud”. I am sad to say that this incident raises questions, in my opinion, as to where the loyalties of Arab Shiites lie. Is their prime allegiance to the countries which bore them or to the ayatollahs in Qom?
Sympathizers
With the future of our countries at stake, I believe we can no longer tolerate Iranian sympathizers, whether residents or visitors, in our midst. We must put out a sign saying “backstabbers not wanted.”It has long been suspected that Iraq’s leadership is under Tehran’s boot and it is now confirmed. Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi accuses Saudi of “violating human rights” which will have repercussions “on the security, stability and the social fabric of the peoples of the region”. Doesn’t he know that people in glass houses should not throw stones; Iraq post-Saddam leadership has caused the Sunni-Shiite divide while spawning terrorist groups with its unjust treatment of Sunnis. Any Arab country that fails to quell anti-Saudi demonstrations and attacks on Saudi interests will either be viewed as being in agreement or fearful of Iran’s retribution. Either way, they should be held responsible for their people’s crimes.
Following suit
I have long warned that Iran is the greatest threat to Gulf States and I was reassured that Saudi Arabia acted firmly and decisively to cut diplomatic relations and all other ties with Iran. Adel Al-Jubeir hinted that others should do the same. I could not agree more. Now is the moment for all GCC states (and Arab allies, in particular Egypt and Jordan) to show their solidarity with a member country when times are rough. I cannot count how many columns I have written urging the GCC to take strong action in response to Iran’s continuous aggression and I am relieved that message has finally hit home. There should be no backtracking or forgiveness. I believe the enemy is at the door. Our self-defence demands that we must continue along this path by implementing the Joint Arab Force and firming-up the Saudi-led anti-terrorism military coalition involving 34 predominately Muslim states. Our ultimate goals should include the liberation of Al Ahwaz (Arabistan) from Persian occupation and its Arab majority from repression, poverty and denial of religious freedom. This long-suffering population of millions deprived of water and fuel in a region rich with oil and gas, and criminalized for giving newborns Arab names, are crying out to be saved from the mullahs’ fists. Furthermore, Iraq and Lebanon should not be abandoned to Iranian proxies who obey Ayatollah Khamenei. Saudi Arabia has donated billions of dollars to strengthen the Lebanese armed forces yet no amount of fighter jets or weapons can be a substitute for courage and love of country. What kind of army allows an armed militia to lead its country by the nose? Put simply, we must do our utmost to cleanse the Arab world from the destructive Persian contagion – and there is no time to waste. Lastly, I would reiterate my call to the decision-makers within the GCC and beyond to cut diplomatic and trade relations with the region’s biggest sponsor of terrorism and its Arab proxies. Any country spewing threats or trying to teach us how we should deal with terrorists, posing a grave danger to our peoples and our very existence, is an enemy that must be shunned and isolated on every level. Let us have the courage to prove to the Saudi government and people, with more than mere sympathetic words, that they are not alone.

Iran: A tale of a bad neighbor
Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
Saudi Arabia has been the target of Ayatollah Khomeini's antagonism since 1979, when Khomeini's mullahs took over the Iranian state. This can be seen through the principles of Khomeini's followers; they are the “supporters of God” (Ansarullah), the “party of God” (Hezbollah), the “hand of God,” and “under the command of God.” These are all well-known names and phrases related to Iranian activities. The following is a list of events detailing Iranian attacks against Saudi Arabia since 1979:
Incidents throughout the 1980s:
• A group of Iranians protested in front of the Prophet's Mosque in Madina and raised photos of Khomeini.
• 21 Iranian pilgrims in Saudi Arabia armed with weapons and explosives were detained.
• Iranian demonstrators in Tehran stormed the Saudi and Kuwaiti embassies and set them on fire, attacking and detaining Saudi diplomat Reda al-Nuzha.
• Militant group Hezbollah al-Hejaz, which is loyal to Iran, set fire to an oil installation in Ras Tanura in eastern Saudi Arabia.
• Hezbollah al-Hejaz attacked the at the Sadaf petrochemical plant in the industrial city of Jubail, also in eastern Saudi Arabia.
June 1996:
• Hezbollah al-Hejaz blows up a residential compound in Khobar, eastern Saudi Arabia, and Ahmed al-Mughassil, the cell's leader and the mastermind of the attack, flees to Iran.
August 2009:
• Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launch flagrant media attacks against Riyadh due to Saudi Arabia's confrontation of Houthi aggressors on its borders.
March 2011:
• Iran's supreme leader uses inciting religious rhetoric to attack Saudi Arabia after Peninsula Shield forces entered Bahrain, upon Manama’s request, to deter an Iranian coup attempt under the ruse of the Arab Spring.
April 2015:
• Khamanei escalates his political religious speeches against Saudi Arabia after Riyadh launched “Operation Decisive Storm” against Iranian-allied Houthis in Yemen.
January 2016:
• Agents of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards attack the Saudi embassy in Tehran and the Saudi consulate in Mashhad and set them on fire. This came after Iranian regime symbols threatened the kingdom over its execution of preacher Nimr al-Nimr, leader of the Awamiyah militia in eastern Saudi Arabia, and ignored the fact that 40 al-Qaeda members were executed alongside him.
This is a summary of decades in relations with the Iranian regime, a bad neighbor. The Saudi response came in two days and it was as such: Cutting diplomatic ties with Iran, expelling Iran's diplomatic mission from Saudi Arabia, suspending flights to Iran, suspending all forms of trade with Iran and banning Saudis from traveling to Iran.
Saudi Arabia still has many responses to direct towards Iran’s insolence.
A tense relationship with neighbors is not something wished upon by anyone. Any reasonable person should be keen to find a means of cooperation with their neighbors. But what can done with a neighbor who "believes" abusing you is a duty they must uphold?
It is now time for Saudi Arabia to respond.

Why revive Saudi Arabia for non-Saudis?
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
My colleague in Al-Hayat newspaper, author Fahd Dghaither, attended the National Transformation workshop, which was launched to introduce Saudi public opinion to the most important development plan the kingdom will witness. The details are expected to be announced officially in a few weeks. He came back from the workshop enthusiastic, as he has always insisted on the need for reform and raising productivity. He raised in one of his articles the most important question: Why pay a salary of 8,000 riyals to a Saudi young man when an Asian worker would take the job for 2,000 riyals? The answer will determine which path will prevail in the plan, as the aim is to reduce the reliance on oil by diversifying sources of income and doubling Gross National Product (GNP), which will create 6 million jobs for Saudis and improve citizens’ quality of life. This matter came to the forefront again last week with the announcement of the Saudi budget. It differed from any previous budget as it seemed more like an introduction to a bigger development plan called the National Transformation Plan, led by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
What matters to the government politically is to satisfy and serve its citizens rather than pleasing others
The budget and relevant decisions included orders to raise the cost of gasoline and various hydrocarbons, in addition to electricity and water. Everyone will be affected by these changes, but what matters to the government politically is to satisfy and serve its citizens rather than pleasing others.
The Saudi Ministry of Economy and Planning must take the entire population of 30 million into account when devising its expenditure plan, but at what cost? How much will the government save if it succeeds in implementing the directives it issued around a decade ago to limit foreign residents to 20 percent of the population? If it succeeds, the National Transformation Plan will cater for 24 million people instead of 30 million. However, our airports continue to receive more foreign workers. The ministry’s planning should consider the consequences of rising prices of goods and services following the government’s decision to raise fuel prices. The increases will be tolerable if the money goes to Saudi citizens in small and medium-sized enterprises, as it will become part of the state’s financial cycle and positively affect GNP. However, the increases will benefit foreign laborers who own cover-up small and medium-sized businesses.
Job market
One might ask how we can increase production and double national income without foreign workers. However, they do not only take Saudi jobs, but worse, they obstruct Saudis from acquiring the skills required to earn and achieve more. People can only gain experience when they are in the job market, but foreign laborers have turned it into their own environment, in which ambitious Saudis have become strangers. Foreign laborers are no longer mere grocery or factory workers - they have become owners of enterprises via cover-up businesses. They start by gaining experience, then they become independent and establish their own businesses. Meanwhile, Saudis have become more and more used to them. Each Saudi manager has a foreign assistant who gradually gains experience and ends up knowing more.
This matter, with all its political sensitivities, should be a top priority in the National Transformation Plan. It should become a national cause that is more important than the wrath of an influential businessman complaining that this is destroying Saudi industries. The answer should be that any factory that was not designed to employ Saudis, and that needs constant state support, is unwelcome. A prominent farmer might yell: “Which Saudi worker will accept to earn 1,000 riyals a month?” The answer should be: “We don’t want more farms that can only operate via cheap labor and consume precious water resources.”
We must establish a plan parallel to the National Transformation Plan in order to liberate the Saudi market and economy from foreign workers. Let such a plan be gradually and fairly implemented, but what matters is to begin implementing it. This does not mean we will isolate ourselves. Let us welcome foreigners who will add a marginal advantage to our economy, like the Americans and Europeans do. The number of immigrants in the United States and Germany is 12 percent of the population, and a lot less in other countries. In Saudi Arabia, foreigners comprise a third of the population - that is a lot. It is a long and difficult battle, and we will only win when we truly believe that an economy based on the work of anyone other than its citizens is not healthy or sustainable. Therefore, we must not develop Saudi Arabia for the benefit of non-Saudis.

Exposing Israel’s treatment of Palestinian child detainees
Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/January 06/16
How any state treats children is surely one of the great litmus tests of its moral standing. Sadly, far too many fail them, leaving lifelong scars. The children of the Middle East are collectively being failed and even more so over the last five years with conflict and trauma rampant in many states. The next two decades will witness the fallout from this generational agony. For the most part, the options to help the children of Syria, Iraq and Yemen are limited. Ultimately only ending the conflicts will allow the sorts of childhood interventions necessary to mitigate against some of the worst effects. Of the tens, even hundreds of thousands of those languishing in the Syrian regime jails, who knows how many of them are children? Yet the international community has no excuse when it comes to the issue of Palestinian child detainees in Israeli detention. Israel is a first world power with strong political, economic and cultural ties to the world’s leading powers. It claims to be a democracy that respects the rule of law and to be treated as a state with such a reputation. Sadly, the reality is miles from that and the evidence of abuse is available and accessible not hidden or unknown.
Maltreatment
Palestinian children in the West Bank including East Jerusalem live under occupation. Outside of Jerusalem, this means under Israeli military laws and no matter what the transgression, Palestinians appear in a military court. Israeli settlers, all 550,000 of them living in the same geography have all the benefits and protections of Israel’s legal system, which for children, rivals any state in the world. What should the international community be doing to actually protect its own legal system, because a systematic war crime has continued for nearly half a century? Not so for Palestinian children. At every stage in the arrest, interrogation, judicial and prison processes, they typically suffer maltreatment. According to Gerard Horton, a lawyer with Military Court Watch, since the latest escalation in violence, “more children seem to be subject to physical abuse.” Night raids of Palestinian villages and refugee camps have gone up as has the violence. According to the latest official Israeli prison service figures, there are 407 Palestinian children in prison – a rise of 138% since September when it was 170. (There are 5936 Palestinians held as security figures). These, as Horton points out, are just the official figures and do not include all those who have rounded up and held for hours or even overnight. These figures are the largest since March 2009 following riots in the aftermath of Operation Cast Lead.
The rest of the process is farcical, culminating in a kangaroo court process. Around 60% of children still are asked to sign documentation even confessions in Hebrew which they nearly always do not speak. Most do not meet a lawyer until after their interrogations where no responsible adult is present with the child. Most of the interrogations are not recorded or if so, the recordings are not always handed to the defence. The military courts are as one MP remarked to me a “process centre” where the children are told by their lawyers to plead guilty if they wish to get out in a reasonable time. The military court at Ofer has 99.74% conviction rate. Only North Korea might be disappointed with such a figure. Israel not unreasonably argues it has a security threat but does not appear too concerned as to whether it catches the perpetrators of serious incidents as opposed to collectively punish huge swathes of the Palestinian population.
In East Jerusalem, the Israeli authorities have faced massive challenges. This has been one other epicentres of the recent escalation with frequent demonstrations and of course inexcusable attacks including knifings of Israeli civilians. Yet here Israeli civilian law applies so in theory at least Palestinian children should be better treated. It has sparked furious debate as to how to toughen measures against stone throwing whilst of course not including in the net any Israeli Jewish children. International pressure on this is vital not least given that Israel’s Justice Minister is happy to post articles referring to Palestinian children as “little snakes.”This Wednesday, Jan. 6, the British parliament will debate the issue for the second time following a debate in 2010. It comes in advance of a second (albeit oft delayed) British Foreign Office sponsored visit by distinguished lawyers to assess Israel’s efforts to improve its record following the publication of a damning report, “Children in Military Custody”, by a team led by the former British attorney-general, Baroness Scotland in June 2012.
A systematic war crime
What can the international community do? Or more to the point, what should the international community be doing to actually protect its own legal system because a systematic war crime has continued for nearly half a century. Some 56% of Palestinian child detainees, rising to 88% for adults, are transferred out of occupied territory into prison inside Israel. This is a clear grave breach of Article 76 of the Fourth Geneva Convention which prohibits any transfer of the occupied population out of occupied territory. There is no dispute of fact here – Israel in no way denies this. In total, it has involved 7,000 people a year for the last 48 years. UNICEF in its 2013 report cited this as well. Palestine is now a member of the International Criminal Court governed by the Rome Statute which also lists this as a war crime. If international law is to mean anything at all, then the high contracting parties to the Fourth Geneva Convention cannot continue to just watch. This will be a key demand in the debate in the British House of Commons that Britain takes the requisite action. Under English law, specifically the Geneva Conventions Act of 1957, those who commit, aid or abet a grave breach of the Fourth Geneva Convention could face up to 30 years in prison. One suggestion being put forward by Sarah Champion MP who procured the debate, is that those known to have participated in such violations be put on the watch list at UK borders. Ultimately the only solution is the end of the occupation. Israel’s uses these methods because it is the only means at the disposal of the military to perpetuate the illegal presence of over 550,000 Israeli civilians living amongst 2.8 million Palestinians. If it did not intimidate and harass on a daily basis, its system of occupation would just fall apart and the army knows it.

Lessons We Palestinians Can Learn
Bassam Tawil/2016 Gatestone Institute/January 06/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7131/palestinians-lessons
Opinion polls show that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians support an armed campaign against Israel, and want to see Israel destroyed and a State of Palestine built on its ruins. The polls also show a troubling increase in popular support in the West Bank for Hamas, and a decrease in support for Mahmoud Abbas.
The greatest tragedy of the Palestinians is not 1948, it is 2015. The only thing the Palestinian leadership and terrorist organizations can agree on is their obsession to destroy the State of Israel.
It is particularly disappointing that we keep trying to defraud the Israelis and Americans with fictitious messages of peace and "two states for two peoples." We assume they have no intelligence at all, do not understand Arabic and cannot read our Facebook pages.
The time has come to try creating -- for the first time -- a peaceful and demilitarized Palestinian state, which the Israelis have indicated for decades they would be happy to help us achieve.
This past week, the Israelis arrested 25 Hamas terrorists in the West Bank, most of them students from Al-Quds University in Abu Dis. Not rebels without a cause or the unemployed with a chip on their shoulder, but the finest minds we have, the intellectuals of the future Palestinian academia! The group, which dealt with recruiting and guidance and was being handled by Hamas in Turkey and its terrorist wing the Gaza Strip, was planning to carry out suicide bombing attacks inside Israel.
The leaders of the terror cell arranged safe houses and storage sites, where they set up laboratories to manufacture explosives. They recruited Palestinians -- from Bethlehem, Hebron, Qalqilya and even from Jerusalem, as well as Arabs from the Israeli Negev -- to acquire the chemicals and other equipment necessary for making car bombs for these students, who were getting ready to die as suicide bombers.
The Israeli security forces uncovered the network and arrested its operatives, who had also been influenced by the Palestinian Authority's non-stop incitement of the Palestinian population. The Palestinian Authority (PA) wants to sacrifice our best and brightest to carry out terrorist attacks against Jews.
Unfortunately, recent events herald the end of the concept of establishing an independent state for the Palestinian people. The cracks in the wall of Palestinian history -- which is barely a hundred years old -- are growing wider. The attempts to repair the fabric of Palestinian society with neon colors are a failure. There is also internal friction among the various Salafist organizations (Hamas, ISIS, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad) and the PLO and Fatah and other West Bank terrorist organizations.
There is also the issue of inheritance: which organization will control the PLO? What are the differences in their agendas? The Hamas leadership in Gaza wants first to reconstruct the Gaza Strip and then renew the fighting with Israel. The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas's military-terrorist wing, demands the immediate renewal of attacks and rocket fire against Israel. Both are trying to establish new terrorist networks in the West Bank (like the one recently uncovered). The double objective of both groups is to kill Israelis and topple the Palestinian Authority.
We Palestinians seem incapable of agreeing on even the most basic productive and constructive issues, such as rebuilding houses, education, an intelligent use of the hundreds of millions of dollars received as donations, opening the Rafah crossing and improving relations with the Arab world, especially Egypt. The greatest tragedy of the Palestinians is not 1948, it is 2015. The only thing the Palestinian leadership and terrorist organizations can agree on is their obsession to destroy the State of Israel and establish a Palestinian state on the ruins; and even there, they cannot agree on the ways, stages and means.
As long as the Palestinians thought they could get what they wanted through negotiations and intransigence, they concealed their true intentions. Recently, however, when it became clear the Israelis would not waive their demand for the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state or their determined objection to the right of return, Palestinian extremism came out of hiding. That is evident from the results consistently obtained by opinion polls, carried out by Palestinian polling centers, which show that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians support an armed campaign against Israel, and want to see it destroyed and the state of Palestine built on its ruins. The polls also show a troubling increase in popular support in the West Bank for Hamas, and a decrease in support for Mahmoud Abbas and the PA because of their inability to restore all of "occupied Palestine" to the Palestinians.
I wish we Palestinians were only smart enough to learn from the history of the Jews instead of totally rejecting them. We would immediately rid ourselves of Hamas and the other terrorist organizations. But instead we use them, because they kill Jews.
Unfortunately, the late Yasser Arafat thought it would be easier to force the Jews to make concessions if the negotiations were held in an atmosphere of terrorist attacks and to that end, he subcontracted to Hamas.
Hamas, like Frankenstein's monster, grew to become a large terrorist organization, now threatening not just Israel but the PLO and the Palestinian Authority. In consequence, we are forced to collaborate with the Israelis if we want to survive and avoid being swallowed whole by Hamas, as we were in Gaza. That is why the threats from the Palestinian Authority to stop intelligence collaboration with Israel are nonsense. As our rhetoric becomes more and more extremist, some Palestinians suffer from a passive desire to submit to Hamas, and fewer and fewer people dare to challenge Hamas instead of rejecting both it and the Muslim Brotherhood, and gaining the trust of wider, far more powerful backer: the world, the West, and even in some ways the Israelis. We are, instead, soaking up Hamas's destructive extremism. We allow Hamas to brainwash our younger generation with its fanatic -- and unproductive -- web of hate, destruction and death.
The Palestinian leadership has not yet internalized the bitter consequences of our fruitless terrorist attacks against Israel. The leadership uses its media to spread false propaganda about knives, stone-throwing and car ramming attacks, along with threats of another intifada. They do not realize that nothing will move the Israelis. Nothing will make them leave; nothing will make them give up one inch of land -- certainly not terrorism. That only strengthens their resolve. We keep making the awful and perhaps irreparable mistake of educating our children, generation after generation, to hate the Jews and Israelis and to want to destroy the State of Israel. At the same time, we can see that the Israelis and the Americans follow our every move, and document our hate propaganda. Little by little, our credibility is shredded as they lose their trust.
We broadcast children's programs promoting violence and hate on government-funded -- and government-run -- Palestinian TV, and at the same time expect the Israelis to make concessions to us that will compromise their security. How stupid is that? Then we continually brainwash viewers with the nonsense that, with the help of Allah, the State of Israel is temporary and will eventually cease to exist. Whom or what should the Israelis trust? The elderly Mahmoud Abbas, without support in his own country, waiting until the younger generation, brought up on hatred and war, pushes him out? We have the program "Children Speak," which declared on November 11, 2015, with absolute certainty, that Israel's end was just around the corner and that all the land of Palestine from 1948, "from the River to the Sea," including Israeli cities such as Haifa, Jaffa, Acre and Nazareth, "belong to us" and "will return to us." If you were the Israeli government, you would be suspicious too.
It is therefore mystifying why Greece's parliament would now symbolically (non-bindingly) recognize a Palestinian State -- thereby pushing actual Palestinian statehood farther away than ever. Abbas doubtless goes around trying to pick up such worthless endorsements, no doubt hoping that if he manages to bundle enough of them, stacks of internationally binding agreements will be bypassed and an actual Palestinian state, with no need for any concessions, might magically spring up.
Has no one in the intelligence services of either country noticed that, according to Palestinian TV (December 4, 2015),
some of the Palestinians who have lived on Palestinian land since 1948 did not leave and now defend the land from the abuse of the "racist occupation." The very fact that they still live on our land, despite the occupation's full control, means they preserve Palestinian existence and guard the land as Palestinian, and believe all the land will return to Palestinian control and be part of the state of Palestine.
Ahem. "The Palestinians who have lived on Palestinian land since 1948" are what the rest of the world calls "Israeli Arabs."
The above are two examples of official Palestinian propaganda spread by the Palestinian leadership, media and educational system throughout the Palestinian territories every hour of every day. According to Al-Hayat Al-Jadeeda, the official Palestinian newspaper, on December 10, 2015, Jihad Jayyusi, the Palestinian Authority's military liaison officer, visited a creative writing class in the Al-Awda girls' school in Bethlehem, and presented them with a plaque of "Palestine," which now includes all the territory of the State of Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. According to the same newspaper, on November 17, 2015, the prize in a photography contest held by the PLO's "prisoner department" was a map of "Palestine," which included the same territories.
Palestinian Authority leaders, official television, schools and media outlets often display maps showing Palestine stretching from the River Jordan to the Mediterranean Sea. The maps do not show the existence of Israel.
It is particularly disappointing that we keep trying to defraud the Israelis and Americans with fictitious messages of peace and "two states for two peoples." We assume they have no intelligence at all, do not understand Arabic and cannot read our Facebook pages, including the page of the Palestinian national security forces, where Acre and Jaffa are called "occupied." We assume that Westerners never read Al-Hayat Al-Jadeeda, which on November 30, 2015, published a picture of two keys and a map of "Palestine" that included all the Israeli and Palestinian territories and read, "A memory that does not rust" -- or if they do read it, that they do not understand what they are looking at.
If there is to be peace between Israel and the Palestinians, the first step is for the Palestinians to coordinate their own expectations. Our leaders have to understand that the Middle East arena is in a constant state of flux, that descendants of the 1948 refugees clearly will never "return" to the State of Israel, Jerusalem will never be the capital of a state of Palestine, and we will never control the Jordan Valley (because of Israel's unfortunately justified security concerns).
In addition, in a world staggering under the burden of Islamist terrorism, Palestinian terrorism is likely, over time, only to strengthen the West's support for Israel's security and existence.
We should have understood a long time ago that Jews exist in Palestine, that they are here to stay forever, and that murdering them in the streets is not going to change anything. The time has come to try creating -- for the first time in history -- a peaceful and demilitarized Palestinian state, which the Israelis have indicated for decades they would be all too happy to help us achieve. I hope and pray we are not already too late.
*Bassam Tawil is a scholar based in the Middle East
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone

Opinion: Syria – a Study in International Cynicism
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/January 06/16
oes well, the latest diplomatic manoeuvre on Syria will take place sometime this month. However, what one can expect from the forthcoming session which is unanimously endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, is far from certain.
The first thing to know about the proposed diplomatic exercise is that it is only tangentially related to Syria if at all. The real purpose of the exercise lies elsewhere.
This is instantly clear from the very first step proposed by the Security Council resolution: to install a ceasefire in the war-torn country. Usually, when the Security Council decides on a ceasefire it is fixed for almost immediate establishment. Over the past 70 years of its existence the UN has declared dozens of ceasefire, all coming into effect instantly.
This time, however, the Security Council envisages a ceasefire produced by unspecified talks at an unspecified date. Worse still, at least half of those involved in Syria’s multi-layered war are excluded even from talks on a ceasefire.
In Syria we have two kinds of fires. The first is the fire that rival factions, including the remnants of the Assad regime, hurl at each other during occasional, and increasingly rare, battles. This first kind of fire claims relatively few victims as none of the factions has the force to push a battle to a clear conclusion. In the past 18 months, the mosaic that Syria has become under the control of numerous armed groups has hardly changed. Thus whether or not we manage to cease that kind of fire would have little effect on the overall situation in Syria.
The second kind of fire is the one unleashed from the air, often against the civilian population. That fire is controlled by relatively few hands. The remnants of Assad’s air force routinely hits civilian targets, including with chemical weapons, with little or no discernible change in the balance of power on the ground. This amounts to massacre of civilians rather than an act of war. The Security Council could have easily called for an immediate cessation of fire from the air. But it didn’t.
Fire from the air also comes from the so-called coalition led by the United States and, more recently, by Russia. In both cases, we have significant “collateral” damage, that is to say civilians killed, for little military result. If Russian fire from the air kills more people it is because the Russians don’t have the kind of “smart” bombs and “brimstone” missiles that the US-led coalition has.
Here, too, the Security Council could have called for the instant cessation of bombings that produce no tangible results if only because neither the US led coalition nor Russia and its second fiddle Iran are capable of translating air strikes into political gains on the ground. In the absence of a coherent military strategy, this is simply wanton killing.
Again, the Security Council made a move on that score. So, the resolution and the proposed talks are hardly the result of a genuine desire to stop killings in Syria. They have other purposes.
One purpose is to create the illusion that the so-called international community has now reached a consensus on Syria. This is patently untrue.
The Moscow-Tehran axis has an agenda aimed at prolonging Bashar al-Assad’s phantom presidency in Damascus.
Russia has suddenly realized that it has entered a hornet’s nest with no way out. Despite his boastful demeanour Vladimir Putin is a cautious player. He knows that the Syrian imbroglio could continue for years while Russia faces economic meltdown and growing public concern about a costly foreign adventure.
Putin also knows that by backing Assad and bombing his opponents he will ensure Russia’s deep and abiding unpopularity in the Muslim world. Rather than a cheap jibe, the claim by Russian Muslim dissidents that Putin is prolonging his massacre of Muslims from the Caucasus to Syria may resonate with many Muslims across the globe.
As for the mullahs of Tehran they now face difficulties paying the salaries not only of teachers but also of security services. At the same time, the Islamic Republic has sustained heavy losses including at least 140 senior officers in just two months, achieving nothing in military terms.
Tehran’s chief aim is to prolong Assad’s tenancy in the presidential palace so as to save the face of the “Supreme Guide” who has promised never to let his protégé be driven out of power.
The US, under President Barack Obama, is only interested in buying time and creating the impression that the great practitioner of “creative diplomacy” has solved another major international problem in the wake of his dramatic success on preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
In other words all those who cooked up the cynical UN resolution want to buy time. The exercise provides them with ample time. Geneva talks are slated to open this month with an agreement on a ceasefire within the next three months. Three months after that, talks will start to form an interim government, presumably under Assad.
The next step would be to organize elections, presumably for a parliament, within 18 months. All that would take us into 2018 if not beyond. By then Obama would have long left the White House and published his memoirs citing Syria as one of his numerous diplomatic successes. If things had gotten even worse by then he would simply blame his successor.
As for Putin he would have at least achieved one thing: kicking his annexation of Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea and Donetsk into oblivion.
The “Supreme Guide” of Tehran would be able to boast that he did keep Assad in power until the end of his term. If Assad then ends up badly, as is almost certain, the “Supreme Guide” could write him off as just another “martyr for the Imam.”
The UN’s cynical exercise also lets Turkey and the Arabs off the hook. Turkish policy was put on the wrong trajectory because President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried to use the opportunity provided by the Syrian tragedy to destroy the PKK and carve out a “security enclave” in both Syria and Iraq”.
For their part, Arabs have failed to coordinate their policies, revealing divisions that could only encourage their enemies.
The UN’s cynical exercises meets the tactical needs of all outside powers involved in the Syrian tragedy – except the Syrian people. They continue to be massacred every day.
**Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987. Mr. Taheri has won several prizes for his journalism, and in 2012 was named International Journalist of the Year by the British Society of Editors and the Foreign Press Association in the annual British Media Awards.