LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 13/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
For all who exalt themselves will be humbled, but all who humble themselves will be exalted.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 18/09-14: "Jesus also told this parable to some who trusted in themselves that they were righteous and regarded others with contempt: ‘Two men went up to the temple to pray, one a Pharisee and the other a tax-collector. The Pharisee, standing by himself, was praying thus, "God, I thank you that I am not like other people: thieves, rogues, adulterers, or even like this tax-collector. I fast twice a week; I give a tenth of all my income."
But the tax-collector, standing far off, would not even look up to heaven, but was beating his breast and saying, "God, be merciful to me, a sinner!"I tell you, this man went down to his home justified rather than the other; for all who exalt themselves will be humbled, but all who humble themselves will be exalted."’

Today, if you hear his voice, do not harden your hearts as in the rebellion.
Letter to the Hebrews 03/14-19//04,01-04: "We have become partners of Christ, if only we hold our first confidence firm to the end. As it is said, ‘Today, if you hear his voice, do not harden your hearts as in the rebellion.’Now who were they who heard and yet were rebellious? Was it not all those who left Egypt under the leadership of Moses? But with whom was he angry for forty years? Was it not those who sinned, whose bodies fell in the wilderness? And to whom did he swear that they would not enter his rest, if not to those who were disobedient? So we see that they were unable to enter because of unbelief.
Therefore, while the promise of entering his rest is still open, let us take care that none of you should seem to have failed to reach it. For indeed the good news came to us just as to them; but the message they heard did not benefit them, because they were not united by faith with those who listened. For we who have believed enter that rest, just as God has said, ‘As in my anger I swore, "They shall not enter my rest" ’, though his works were finished at the foundation of the world. For in one place it speaks about the seventh day as follows: ‘And God rested on the seventh day from all his works.’"

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 13/16
Hezbollah has no merits in Lebanon/Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/February 12/16
Iran aims to hurt the U.S. by dumping the dollar/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/February 12/16
Bernie Sanders and an insurgent America/Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/February 12/16
IRGC Deputy-Commander Hossein Salami: 'Iran Has Built Great Capabilities In Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, And Yemen/MEMRI/February 12/16
Germany’s Migrant Crisis: January 2016/”Migrants Have No Respect for our Constitutional Order”/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/February 12/16
Washington's Self-Deterrence Problem in Syria/James F. Jeffrey/Washington Institute/February 12/16
Will US, Russia be able to turn 'words on paper' into action in Syria/Laura Rozen/Al-Monitor/February 12/16
Syria's Sharia courts/Mohammad Khalil//Al-Monitor/February 12/16
How fighters are filtering across the Syrian-Turkish border/Fehim Taştekin/Al-Monitor/February 12/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 13/16
Hezbollah has no merits in Lebanon
Canada Defense Minister Says No Cooperation with Hizbullah
Officials Scramble to Contain Differences on Eve of Hariri Murder Anniversary
Mashnouq, Aoun Discuss ISF Vacancies
Israeli Troops Hurl Stun, Smoke Bombs at Wazzani Shepherds
Khalil: Lebanon Must Mobilize Resources to Continue Battle against Terrorism
Jreij: Contract to Export Garbage to be Inked Next Week
Qahwaji Meets U.S. Officials, Calls for Protecting Lebanon's Stability
Salam Meets World Leaders in Munich
Christian Posts, Presidential Elections at Center of Discussions in Bkirki
Canada welcomes outcome of ISSG meeting in Munich, calls for genuine commitment to UN-led peace talks on Syria

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 13/16
Doubts Emerge over Plan to End Syria Hostilities within Week
Assad Sees Risk of Saudi, Turkish Op, Says Aleppo Battle Aims to Cut Route to Turkey
S. Korea Warns North over 'Illegal' Asset Freeze
Powers agree on ‘cessation of hostilities’ in Syria
Tunisia prepares for impact of possible intervention in Libya
U.S. sees Saudi Arabia and UAE providing commandos for Syria
Thousands of Iraqi refugees leave Finland voluntarily
Turkey hails world powers’ Syria plan as ‘important step’
Russian, Saudi foreign ministers reportedly to meet in Munich
How is Al-Qaeda in Yemen simulating Houthis attacks?
Impact of Mosul dam collapse 'would be 1,000 times' worse than Katrina
Why is Saudi crucial in the fight against ISIS in Syria?
U.N. rights expert accuses Israel of excessive force
Israeli soldier jailed for abusing Palestinian inmates
CIA: ISIS has used and can make chemical weapons
Iran aims to hurt the U.S. by dumping the dollar

Links From Jihad Watch Site for February 13/16
Pakistan bans Valentine’s Day as “insult” to Islam
Ohio: Machete-wielding Muslim injures multiple patrons at restaurant owned by pro-Israel Arab Christian
Egypt: Church waits years for construction permit, finally gets demolition permit
US Navy scolds: Iran didn’t act “professionally and responsibly” after Iranians release video showing captured sailor crying
Iran mocks captured US Navy sailors as fat, immoral, and weak
Nigeria: Federal University of Technology student arrested for recruiting for the Islamic State
Hugh Fitzgerald: NPR and the Chapel Hill Murders
Rochester, NY school organizes ‘Hijab Day’ for non-Muslim students
Catholic Church tells bishops they are not obliged to disclose child sex abuse UPDATE: Church denies
At last: Fox orders pilot of Muslim family sitcom
Raymond Ibrahim: The Muslim Man’s Sexual “Rights” Over Non-Muslim Women
German asylum centers: Muslim migrants tear up Bibles, assault Christians, sexually abuse women and children, beat up gays
Washington State: Muslim prisoner screaming “Allahu akbar” hits guard on head repeatedly with metal stool
Cameroon: Islamic State’s West Africa Province murders at least 6 with jihad-martyrdom suicide attacks

Hezbollah has no merits in Lebanon
Nayla Tueni/Al Arabiya/February 12/16
Lebanese parties that support Hezbollah are aware that they need it to provide them with security and money to survive, after living under Syrian tutelage. They also need the votes of Hezbollah supporters whenever there are elections, given that their numbers are great, and the Shiite party can control and mobilize them. However, Hezbollah - despite its money, power and supporters - is no different from other parties when it comes to the domestic political formula, as it is also captive to the current system that is based on sharing with other sects, religions, parties and leaders. Its ministers have not achieved anything significant, and its MPs’ stances have not correlated with the principles they have always bragged about. On the contrary, news of corruption linked to those close to Hezbollah has often surfaced.
Presidential vacuum
The situation has not been better regarding the presidential affair. Hezbollah has obstructed the process of electing a president - and thus obstructed Lebanon’s democratic life and violated the constitution - by boycotting parliament sessions, along with its allies, and by setting conditions to attend. This is nothing to be proud of. Hezbollah has so far failed to get its candidate, Christian leader Michel Aoun, to the presidency. Statements that electing a president is in Hezbollah’s hands are an exaggeration, as last week it acknowledged that just like other parties, it awaits signals from foreign parties, and international and regional agreements such as those related to U.S.-Iranian dialogue. Hezbollah’s frequent statements that the process of electing a president is a purely internal affair are merely attempts to throw dust in the eyes. All parties must realize that we have all become captives of regional affairs, and are all awaiting signals from outside powers. However, as we wait, is it possible to maintain the minimum of security, and social and economic stability? Most importantly, for our own sake, can we avoid harming our ties with brotherly Arab countries that have always stood by Lebanon?

Canada Defense Minister Says No Cooperation with Hizbullah
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Canadian authorities will not deal with Hizbullah officials as they prepare to deploy military advisers to Lebanon as part of Ottawa’s new strategy to fight the Islamic State extremist group, Canada’s Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan has said. “We will only deal with the legitimate government of Lebanon and will not deal with Hizbullah,” Radio Canada International (RCI) quoted Sajjan as saying on Thursday. Sajjan’s comment in Brussels, where he attended a high-level NATO meeting, came in response to questions about Canada’s plans to deploy up to 100 soldiers to Lebanon and Jordan to help their respective militaries to counter the threat posed by the IS. According to RCI, the minister said Canadian Armed Forces will work with Jordanian and Lebanese authorities on capacity building to help them counter the threats they face on their borders with Syria.Canada considers Hizbullah a terrorist organization. Last week, Canadian Foreign Minister Stephane Dion and International Development Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau said Ottawa will provide about Can$1.6 billion (US$1.2 billion) in development and humanitarian aid and other efforts over three years to respond to the crisis in Iraq and Syria and to address the impact on Jordan, Lebanon and the wider region.Those funds will include help for Jordan and Lebanon to bolster security as well as to feed and house refugees displaced by the conflict from neighboring countries.

Officials Scramble to Contain Differences on Eve of Hariri Murder Anniversary
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Officials scrambled on Friday to contain the dispute between al-Mustaqbal Movement chief Saad Hariri and Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi that threatened to widen the divide among the parties forming the March 14 alliance a few days before the assassination anniversary of former PM Rafik Hariri. An Nahar daily said that contacts are underway to contain the differences between Hariri and Rifi, which erupted after the Justice Minister withdrew from a cabinet session on Thursday because the government failed to discuss the possible referral of the trial of former Minister Michel Samaha to the Judicial Council. After Rifi - a Mustaqbal official - stormed out of the cabinet, Hariri said in a tweet that the minister's move doesn’t represent him, adding “whoever committed a crime will receive a punishment.”Social Affairs Minister Rashid Derbas was among the ministers trying to mend fences. He told An Nahar that the discussion on the decree dealing with Samaha's trial were adjourned for lack of time. Three other issues, which were from outside the cabinet agenda, were time consuming, said Derbas. Premier Tammam Salam told Rifi that the decree will be discussed at another session, he added.
The rift between Hariri and Rifi came weeks after disagreements emerged between the Mustaqbal chief and the Lebanese Forces - another party that is a member of the March 14 alliance - over the presidential crisis. LF chief Samir Geagea endorsed his long-time rival Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun after Hariri announced his backing for Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh. Both Aoun and Franjieh are members of the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance. The widening gap between the members of the March 14 alliance comes as Hariri is scheduled to make a speech on Sunday on the anniversary of the assassination of his father Rafik Hariri. Hariri was killed in a bombing on the Beirut seafront on Feb. 14, 2005. Saad Hariri's speech that will be aired through a screen at the ceremony, which will be held in BIEL, is expected to focus on the political developments in Lebanon and Syria. But it is not clear if Hariri will officially endorse the candidacy of Franjieh.

Mashnouq, Aoun Discuss ISF Vacancies
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq said on Friday that he discussed with Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun the vacancies in the leadership of the Internal Security Forces. “I discussed with Aoun filling vacancies in the leadership of the ISF,” al-Mashnouq said after meeting the Change and Reform bloc leader in Rabieh. “It is possible to agree with him,” he said. “Aoun is aware of the problems (that the country is suffering from) and has a vision on the work of the government,” al-Mashnouq stated. He said there is no reason to delay the municipal elections. “It is the right of every Lebanese to express his opinion,” the minister told reporters. Preliminary voter lists for the municipal elections, scheduled for May, were released earlier this week. Al-Mashnouq also expressed optimism on the election of a president this year. Baabda Palace has been vacant since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014.

Israeli Troops Hurl Stun, Smoke Bombs at Wazzani Shepherds
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Israeli soldiers threw stun grenades and smoke bombs towards shepherds in the southern Lebanese border region of al-Wazzani on Friday, the Lebanese army said. “In a new violation of Lebanese sovereignty, an Israeli enemy patrol hurled three smoke bombs and two stun grenades towards shepherds who were grazing their herds in the al-Wazzani region inside Lebanese territory,” the army said in a statement.The attack did not cause any casualties and the military is following up on the issue with the U.N. Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the army added. The incident comes two days after an Israeli force crossed the Lebanese border in the Kfarshouba region and seized a goat herd belonging to a Lebanese citizen. Such violations are frequent in that border area and the Israeli army sometimes kidnaps the shepherds themselves and frees them after interrogation. Tensions have recently surged along the Lebanese-Israeli border, especially in Shebaa, after Hizbullah attacked an Israeli patrol in retaliation to Israel's December assassination in Syria of its top operative Samir al-Quntar.

Khalil: Lebanon Must Mobilize Resources to Continue Battle against Terrorism
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil asserted on Friday that Lebanon's banking sector has been able to prove to the world and international bodies that our country is committed to international laws in their fight against terrorism and money laundering. “Despite the deepening economic crisis that obstructed the constitutional institutions in Lebanon, starting with the election of a president, we have been able to put Lebanon's interest first which enabled the country and its banking sector to address international bodies and show them that Lebanon is committed to international laws in their fight against terrorism and money laundering,” said Khalil at the opening of the Banking Forum held at BIEL.“We are largely involved in organizing our legislation and the mobilization of our legal, political and security resources in order to complete the battle against terrorism,” he added. “We are confident that the banking and financial sectors have practiced self-censorship that boosted the confidence of Lebanese, Arab and world investors.”“We are witnessing difficult economic times but at the same time we are not in an economic collapse. The situation needs a collection of reforms to preserve the financial stability and balance,” added the Minister.

Jreij: Contract to Export Garbage to be Inked Next Week
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Information Minister Ramzi Jreij asserted on Friday that the contract to export Lebanon's garbage will be signed next week as soon as the Council for Development and Reconstruction receives an original copy of the Russian consent.
“The contract to export the waste will be signed next week either on Tuesday or Wednesday after the CDR receives the original copy of the Russian approval,” Jreij told the Voice of Lebanon Radio (100.5). On Thursday, the government reached an agreement over the funding of the months-long trash disposal crisis dedicating 50 million dollars for the process. The funds will be referred to the CDR and will cover the first six months of the plan that will reportedly transport the trash to Russia.
According to reports, the company that won a deal to export Lebanon's waste, Britain’s Chinook Urban Mining International, has obtained Russia’s approval to take in Lebanon’s trash. Although Russia has denied late in January the reports on its willingness to receive the garbage, Russian diplomatic sources told al-Joumhouria daily that the destination might be one of the former Soviet Union countries and that Russia's name is being caught in the process. The waste management crisis erupted in July 2015 when the Naameh landfill that received the waste of Beirut and Mount Lebanon was closed. The cabinet agreed in late 2015 to export the trash after repeated efforts to establish new landfills failed.

Qahwaji Meets U.S. Officials, Calls for Protecting Lebanon's Stability
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji has wrapped up a one-week visit to the U.S. during which he urged U.S. officials to contribute to insulating Lebanon from the raging regional conflicts, the army said on Friday. “General Qahwaji offered an extensive explanation about the Lebanese army's capabilities and the grave responsibilities it is shouldering, especially in terms of confronting and fighting terror and controlling and protecting the borders,” the army added. “He emphasized that, despite all the challenges, the Lebanese army has managed to keep politics outside the boundaries of the institution,” the military said. Qahwaji also called on the United States to “contribute through its friendships and influence to preserving Lebanon's stability and neutralizing it from conflicts.”“He discussed the various challenges that are facing Lebanon, including the Syrian refugee influx, which is creating additional huge burdens at the security, economic and social levels,” the army said. The U.S. officials for their part expressed “full support for the army and understanding of its needs, lauding its achievements in preserving security and stability, especially in terms of combating terrorism.”Qahwaji also stressed the army's commitment to “permanent and close cooperation” with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and to “all U.N. Security Council resolutions, topped by Resolution 1701.”The army commander's visit occurred upon an official invitation from the Pentagon and it involved meetings with a number of defense and State Department officials as well as with several heads and members of congressional committees. The conflict in neighboring Syria has regularly spilled over into Lebanon in recent years in the form of cross-border violence and sectarian clashes inside the country.Militants from the extremist Islamic State group and the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front are entrenched along the country's porous border with Syria and the army regularly shells their positions. A major confrontation erupted in August 2014 when fighters from the two groups stormed the northeastern border town of Arsal and engaged in deadly battles with the army.

Salam Meets World Leaders in Munich
Naharnet/ February 12/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam held separate talks on Friday with top Western and Arab officials, including U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura, in Germany. Salam discussed with de Mistura, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov the situation in Lebanon and the region. He also met with Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri. Lebanon's Ambassador to Germany Dr. Mustafa Adib attended the talks that were held at Salam's residence in Munich. The PM is in Germany to attend the three-day Munich Security Conference (MSC). Each February, the MSC brings together more than 450 senior decision-makers from around the world, including heads-of-state, ministers, leading personalities of international and non-governmental organizations, as well as high-ranking representatives of industry, media, academia, and civil society, to engage in an intensive debate on current and future security challenges. A report released by the MSC last month warned that Europe is in the middle of raging crises on its doorstep, including the Syrian war and the refugee influx it is causing. The bloody Syrian war, along with other Middle Eastern conflicts, might bring violence to European soil, the report said.

Christian Posts, Presidential Elections at Center of Discussions in Bkirki
Naharnet/ February 12/16/The alleged marginalization of Christians in state institutions and the vacuum at Baabda Palace were at the center of discussions that Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi held with top Christian officials on Friday. “Complaints about appointments in ministries will only end when there is a strong president,” Education Minister Elias Bou Saab, who is a Free Patriotic Movement official, told reporters following talks with al-Rahi in Bkirki. The minister was referring to claims that Shiite Muslims are being granted the vacant posts of Christian civil servants. “If we don't agree on a strong and influential president, then we will continue to hear these complaints,” Bou Saab warned. “Only a strong president resolves these problems,” the minister said. “He will be the president of all Lebanese but he is Christian. So Christians should support him.” “Our salvation comes through real partnership,” Bou Saab stressed. The FPM founder, MP Michel Aoun, is a contender backed by Hizbullah. But he wants consensus before his MPs head to the parliament to vote for the new president. A member of his Change and Reform bloc, Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh, has also announced his candidacy, backed by al-Mustaqbal Movement chief Saad Hariri. Change and Reform MP Ibrahim Kanaan also visited al-Rahi along with Lebanese Forces chief official Melhem Riachi on Friday. “Christians have always respected the will of others. Now it is time for them to respect our will,” said Kanaan. Both the FPM and the LF are promoting for the election of Aoun after LF chief Samir Geagea withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed his long-time rival last month. Kanaan said it is important to hear the opinion of Christians while practicing democracy. Despite the efforts exerted by the FPM and the LF for consensus around Aoun, Hariri is holding onto the candidacy of Franjieh. Their differences led to another failed electoral session on Monday as a result of lack of quorum. Among al-Rahi's visitors on Friday were Culture Minister Rony Araiji and Deputy PM Defense Minister Samir Moqbel. Araiji said the dispute on the posts of Christians in state institutions should be resolved wisely. He also called for true partnership in civil service. As for Moqbel, he warned that Lebanon will not survive without a president.

Canada welcomes outcome of ISSG meeting in Munich, calls for genuine commitment to UN-led peace talks on Syria
February 12, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement welcoming the outcome of the International Syria Support Group meeting in Munich.
“We welcome the outcome of the International Syria Support Group meeting in Munich, in particular the commitment to providing humanitarian assistance and to implementing a nationwide ceasefire in Syria. We hope this will pave the way for a resumption of UN-led peace talks in Geneva. It is absolutely necessary to end this conflict, which has caused the death of over 250,000 people, including 12,000 children.
“A genuine commitment from all parties to the UN-led peace talks is now essential. Continued military offensives by the Syrian regime and its backers will only jeopardize the prospects for peace and strengthen the position of terrorist groups such as ISIL [the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant].
“We call for an immediate end to attacks on civilians, the termination of siege tactics, the release of women and children detainees and the granting of full humanitarian access, in accordance with international humanitarian law.”
Contacts

Doubts Emerge over Plan to End Syria Hostilities within Week
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/ February 12/16/After an ambitious deal to end hostilities in Syria within a week was signed early Friday, doubts emerged over its viability as it excludes the Islamic State group and Al-Qaida's local branch. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry admitted there were "no illusions" about the difficulty of implementing a nationwide "cessation of hostilities" between regime forces and rebels as he announced the deal in Munich alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The 17-nation International Syria Support Group also agreed that "sustained delivery" of humanitarian aid will begin "immediately", with a new U.N. task force meeting later Friday in Geneva to start pushing for much greater access to "besieged and hard-to-reach areas". The deal, struck in late night talks in Munich, went further than expected, with Lavrov talking about "direct contacts between the Russian and U.S. military" on the ground, where the powers are backing opposing sides in the five-year-old conflict. But after a fortnight in which the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad have besieged the key rebel city of Aleppo with the help of heavy Russian bombing, several nations put the onus on Moscow to implement the Syria deal. "Through its military action on the side of Assad's regime, Russia had recently seriously compromised the political process. Now there is a chance to save this process," foreign ministry spokeswoman Christiane Wirzt said."What is important now is embracing this opportunity, stopping the airstrikes, ceasing targeting civilians and providing humanitarian access," added Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Twitter. Analysts remained skeptical about the chances of ending the bloodshed. "(The agreement) is ambitious and yet very tenuous... there are huge question marks," said Julien Barnes-Dacey, of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The failure to include Al-Qaida affiliate Al-Nusra in the cessation of hostilities was particularly important, he said, since the group is active in Aleppo and surrounding regions, and many of the more "moderate" rebels have links with it. "In many ways this Munich meeting was thrust to the fore by the situation in Aleppo, and yet the conditions of the agreement do not seem to apply to Aleppo," said Barnes-Dacey. "Talking about Nusra works in the Russians' favour since so many rebel groups have ties to Nusra. This effectively gives the green light for the Syrian government and its allies to carry on military action while paying lip service to the agreement."Lavrov underlined that "terrorist organizations" such as IS and Al-Nusra "do not fall under the truce, and we and the U.S.-led coalition will keep fighting these structures". But other analysts struck an optimistic note, saying it was significant that the U.S. and Russia had been able to strike a deal at all. "It almost reminds one of superpower agreements in the days of the Cold War," said Michael Williams, a former U.N. diplomat in Lebanon at London's Chatham House think tank. The U.S. and Russia have "taken ownership of this now. This is important. The parties, the opponents will notice this. It will put quite a bit of pressure on Assad and his regime. It's very hard for them now to walk away."Peace talks collapsed earlier this month over the offensive on Aleppo, which has forced at least 50,000 people to flee, left the opposition virtually encircled and killed an estimated 500 people since it began on February 1 -- the latest hellish twist in a war that has claimed more than a quarter-million lives. A key Syrian opposition body, the High Negotiations Committee, said Friday it was up to rebels on the ground whether to implement the deal. Kerry said talks between rebels and the regime would resume as soon as possible, but warned that "what we have here are words on paper -- what we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground."A U.N. task force, co-chaired by Russia and the U.S., will work over the coming week "to develop the modalities for a long-term, comprehensive and durable cessation of violence," Kerry said. The separate aid task force will pressure the Syrian government to open routes, since only around a dozen of 116 U.N. access requests have been granted. Russia and the West remain starkly at odds on several issues, particularly Moscow's failure to focus its bombing on the Islamic State group. "So far Russia has mainly targeted opposition groups and not ISIL and intense air strikes against different opposition groups in Syria have actually undermined efforts to reach a negotiated peaceful resolution," said NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. "We need a lasting ceasefire, we need help to the civilians, we need a political negotiated solution," he said.

Assad Sees Risk of Saudi, Turkish Op, Says Aleppo Battle Aims to Cut Route to Turkey
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/ February 12/16
Syria's President Bashar Assad sees a risk that Saudi Arabia or Turkey could launch a military intervention in Syria, he told AFP in an interview published Friday, while noting that his forces' Aleppo offensive is aimed at cutting off access to the Turkish border. Speaking in Damascus on Thursday, he said he "doesn't rule out" such an intervention, but said that his armed forces "will certainly confront it." Turning to the developments in the Aleppo province, Assad said "the main battle is about cutting the road between Aleppo and Turkey, for Turkey is the main conduit of supplies for the terrorists." Assad also said he supported peace talks, but that negotiations do "not mean that we stop fighting terrorism." Addressing the massive flow of refugees from his country, he said it was up to Europe to stop "giving cover to terrorists" so that Syrians could return home. Assad rejected U.N. allegations of regime war crimes, describing them as "politicized" and lacking evidence. With air support from key ally Russia and backing by pro-government fighters, regime troops have nearly encircled Aleppo, Syria's second city.  Assad said his regime's eventual goal was to retake all of Syria, large swathes of which are under the control of rebel forces or the Islamic State jihadist group. "Regardless of whether we can do that or not, this is a goal we are seeking to achieve without any hesitation," he said. "It makes no sense for us to say that we will give up any part," he added. Assad said it would be possible to "put an end to this problem in less than a year" if opposition supply routes from Turkey, Jordan and Iraq were cut. But, if not, he said, "the solution will take a long time and will incur a heavy price."
First comments since failed talks
The interview with Assad is the first he has given since the effective collapse of a new round of peace talks in Geneva earlier this month. The talks are officially "paused" until February 25, and 17 nations agreed early Friday on an ambitious plan intended to bolster efforts for new negotiations. The plan would see a cessation of hostilities implemented in as little as a week, and also demands humanitarian aid access to all of Syria. Assad said his government has "fully believed in negotiations and in political action since the beginning of the crisis." "However, if we negotiate, it does not mean that we stop fighting terrorism. The two tracks are inevitable in Syria." The Aleppo offensive has been the main focus of Syrian government troops in recent weeks. The regime has virtually encircled rebels in eastern parts of Aleppo city after severing their main supply line to the Turkish border. The operation has raised fears of a humanitarian crisis, with tens of thousands fleeing their homes, and many flocking to the border with Turkey seeking entry. The displaced could join a wave of more than four million Syrian refugees who have left the country since the conflict began in March 2011. Last year, many of those refugees began seeking asylum in Europe in a major crisis that has failed to slow throughout the winter. Assad said the blame for the influx lay at Europe's feet. "I would like to ask every person who left Syria to come back," he said. "They would ask 'why should I come back? Has terrorism stopped?'" Instead, he urged Europe's governments "which have been a direct cause for the emigration of these people, by giving cover to terrorists in the beginning and through sanctions imposed on Syria, to help in making the Syrians return to their country."

S. Korea Warns North over 'Illegal' Asset Freeze
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/ February 12/16/South Korea warned North Korea on Friday that it had acted "illegally" in freezing the assets of South Korean companies and staff expelled from the jointly run Kaesong industrial zone. Seoul's Unification Minister Hong Yong-Pyo said Pyongyang's decision to kick out the South Korean firms was "very regrettable" and added the North would have to take full responsibility for any consequences. North Korea on Thursday said it was closing Kaesong completely and placing it under military control. All South Koreans working in the zone, which lies 10 kilometers (six miles) inside North Korea, were expelled and told they could only take their personal belongings. It also ordered a "complete freeze" of all assets left behind, including raw materials, products and equipment.
Pyongyang said the move was a response to Seoul's decision the day before to shut down the operations of the 124 South Korean companies in Kaesong -- a protest at the North's recent nuclear test and long-range rocket test. "North Korea expelled our people with very short notice, banned them from taking out finished products and illegally froze valuable assets," Hong said.He also condemned the "unjustified and extreme measure" taken by Pyongyang of cutting off the only two remaining communication hotlines with the South. -- North's 'responsibility' --"North Korea will have to take responsibility for anything that happens now," he added, without elaborating. Born out of the "sunshine" reconciliation policy of the late 1990s, Kaesong opened in 2004 and, until now, had proved remarkably resilient, riding out repeated crises that ended every other facet of inter-Korean cooperation. But the latest crisis seems to have finally snuffed out what, for years, had been the last glimmer of working North-South cooperation. After the North expelled the South Koreans on Thursday, Seoul cut off all power and electricity to Kaesong. Pyongyang declared that the complex, which employed around 53,000 North Korean workers, would be placed under military control. Before it had been transformed into an industrial park, Kaesong was a military camp hosting two mechanized divisions and an artillery brigade.
Defending Seoul's initial move to shut down operations at Kaesong, which triggered the North's aggressive response, Hong said Pyongyang's decision to push ahead with its nuclear weapons program had left the government no choice. North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test on January 6 and last Sunday it put a satellite in orbit with a rocket launch that most of the wider international community condemned as a disguised ballistic missile test. The owners of the companies based in Kaesong had reacted furiously to the South's shutdown order, saying their businesses were being sacrificed to politics. Hong promised the government would provide "sufficient support" to help the firms over their losses.

Powers agree on ‘cessation of hostilities’ in Syria
Reuters, Munich Friday, 12 February 2016/Major powers agreed on Friday to a cessation of hostilities in Syria set to begin in a week and to provide rapid humanitarian access to besieged Syrian towns, but failed to secure a complete ceasefire or an end to Russian bombing. Following a marathon meeting in Munich aimed at resurrecting peace talks that collapsed last week, the powers, including the United States, Russia and more than a dozen other nations, reaffirmed their commitment to a political transition when conditions on the ground improved. At a news conference, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledged the Munich meeting produced commitments on paper only. “What we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground, in the field,” he said, adding that “without a political transition, it is not possible to achieve peace.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the news conference that Russia would not stop air attacks in Syria, saying the cessation of hostilities did not apply to ISIS and Nusra Front, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda. ISIS militants control large parts of Syria and Iraq. “Our airspace forces will continue working against these organizations,” he said. The United States and European allies say few Russian strikes have targeted those groups, with the vast majority hitting Western-backed opposition groups seeking to topple the government of President Bashar al-Assad government. Lavrov said peace talks should resume in Geneva as soon as possible and that all Syrian opposition groups should participate. He added that halting hostilities would be a difficult task. But British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said ending fighting could only succeed if Russia stopped air strikes supporting Syrian government forces’ advance against the opposition. Diplomats cautioned that Russia had until now not demonstrated any interest in seeing Assad replaced and was pushing for a military victory. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday raised the specter of an interminable conflict or even a world war if powers failed to negotiate an end to five years of fighting in Syria, which has killed 250,000 people, caused a refugee crisis and empowered Islamic State militants.

Tunisia prepares for impact of possible intervention in Libya
AFP, Tunis Friday, 12 February 2016/Tunisia said Friday that it was asking its regional authorities to work on a plan to cope with the fallout of a possible foreign military intervention in neighboring war-torn Libya.In 2011, hundreds of thousands of people fled from Libya to Tunisia -- a country of around 11 million -- to escape fighting that led to the fall of longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi. Tunisia shares a southeastern border with Libya, where Western powers are openly considering an intervention against the Islamic State jihadist group which has gained influence there in the chaos following Qaddafi's ouster. "In preparation for the situation developing and its consequences, Prime Minister Habib Essid has authorized governors in the southeast regions to form regional committees," a government statement said. These will include "the different parties concerned in order to draw up a plan for each governorate to successfully face... exceptional events that could occur," it said, without giving further details. On Thursday, the health ministry said it had met to discuss "an emergency plan for the health sector... in preparation for the influx on Tunisian soil of refugees and migrants fleeing military air strikes that could occur in Libya." Last week, President Beji Caid Essebsi issued a warning to countries considering an intervention in Libya. "Don't just think of your own interests," he said. "Think of the interests of neighboring countries, starting with Tunisia.""Before any such act, please consult us, because it could serve you, but adversely affect us."

U.S. sees Saudi Arabia and UAE providing commandos for Syria
Reuters, Brussels Friday, 12 February 2016/U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Friday he expected Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to provide special operations forces to help Syrian opposition fighters battling the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group, including to retake the city of Raqqa. "We're going to try to give opportunities and power to ... particularly Sunni Arabs in Syria who want to re-seize their territory back from ISIL, especially Raqqa," Carter said after defense talks in Brussels. Carter, who met with officials from UAE on Friday, said it had also promised to resume participating in the U.S.-led air campaign against ISIS. He received a similar assurance from Saudi Arabia on Thursday.

Thousands of Iraqi refugees leave Finland voluntarily
Reuters, Helsinki Friday, 12 February 2016/Thousands of Iraqi refugees who arrived in Finland last year have decided to cancel their asylum applications and to return home voluntarily, citing family issues and disappointment with life in the frosty Nordic country. Europe is in the grip of its worst migrant crisis since World War Two, with more than a million people arriving last year, fleeing wars and poverty in the Middle East and beyond. Germany and Finland’s neighbor Sweden have taken in many of the migrants but Finland too saw the number of asylum seekers increase nearly tenfold in 2015 to 32,500 from 3,600 in 2014. Almost two thirds of the asylum seekers last year were young Iraqi men, but some are now having second thoughts, so Finland will begin chartering flights to Baghdad from next week to take them home.
Officials said about 4,100 asylum seekers had so far cancelled their applications and that number was likely to reach 5,000 in the coming months. “My baby boy is sick, I need to get back home,” said Alsaedi Hussein, buying a flight back to Baghdad at a small travel agency in Helsinki. Somalia-born Muhiadin Hassan who runs the travel agency said he was now selling 15 to 20 flights to Baghdad every day.
“It’s been busy here for the past few months,” he said. A majority of the home-bound migrants have told immigration services they want to return to their families, but some expressed disappointment with life in Finland. “Some say the conditions in Finland and the lengthy asylum process did not meet their expectations, or what they had been told by the people they paid for their travel,” said Tobias van Treeck, programme officer at the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
“Too cold”
Echoing that comment, travel agent Hassan said: “Some say they don’t like the food here, it’s too cold or they don’t feel welcome in Finland. There are many reasons.”Nearly 80 percent of the migrants returning home are Iraqis. Just 22 of the 877 Syrians - whose country is racked by civil war - and 35 of the 5,214 Afghans who sought asylum in Finland last year have asked to return to their home country. Along with other Nordic states, Finland has recently tightened its immigration policies, for example requiring working-age asylum seekers to do some unpaid work. Hostility to migrants has also increased in Finland, a country with little experience of mass immigration and which now has economic problems. Germany too, which took in 1.1 million people in 2015, has seen small numbers of Iraqi refugees choosing to go home. Finland had been preparing to reject up to 20,000 asylum seekers from 2015, but the number of voluntary returnees could significantly reduce that figure. “The number of returnees is increasing steadily ... All asylum seekers are informed about the options for voluntary return and about the available financial assistance,” said Paivi Nerg, a senior official in the Finnish interior ministry. However, most Iraqi returnees pay for their own flight home or seek help from Iraq’s embassy in Helsinki, she added. Last year the Finnish government and the IOM provided financial help to 631 returnees and a similar number is expected this year. The charter flights will carry up to 100 passengers back to Baghdad from Helsinki every week for as long as demand lasts, officials said.

Turkey hails world powers’ Syria plan as ‘important step’
AFP, Ankara Friday, 12 February 2016/Turkey on Friday hailed a plan agreed by world powers to cease hostilities in Syria within a week as an important step and an opportunity to find a solution to the almost five-year civil war. The agreement by the 17 countries of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) “is an important step on the way to finding a solution to the Syrian crisis,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu wrote on Twitter. “What is important now is embracing this opportunity, stopping the airstrikes, ceasing targeting civilians and providing humanitarian access.”
The world powers, including Turkey, agreed at talks in Munich “to implement a nationwide cessation of hostilities to begin in a target of one week’s time,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. Turkey, which has a 911 kilometre (566 mile) border with Syria, is a key player in efforts to find a solution to the conflict. Ankara had insisted that the departure of President Bashar al-Assad is essential to ending the fighting, a position which brings Turkey into direct confrontation with his major remaining allies Iran and Russia. Turkey also supports moderate rebel groups seeking to oust Assad though it has vehemently denied claims it has sought to arm Islamist-tinted opposition forces. Peace talks in Geneva between the Syrian protagonists in the conflict broke up without any progress earlier this month as the regime and its Russian allies pressed a successful offensive in the north of the country. But Cavusoglu said the agreement of world powers had highlighted the issues in the way of the Geneva process. “It presented an opportunity to unblock (the) stalemate before the political process,” he added.

Russian, Saudi foreign ministers reportedly to meet in Munich
Reuters, Moscow Friday, 12 February 2016/Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov plans to meet his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir on Friday on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Russian news agencies quoted a source in the Russian delegation as saying. Russia and Saudi Arabia are backing opposing sides in the Syria conflict, and both countries are major players in international oil exports.

How is Al-Qaeda in Yemen simulating Houthis attacks?
News Agencies/Friday, 12 February 2016/The methods of Al-Qaeda in Yemen, which is witnessing an internal coup, is becoming increasingly similar to the Houthi rebels’ approach. This leads to suggestions of an undeclared cooperation between the two sides, which will increase the challenges to the Yemeni legitimacy.

Impact of Mosul dam collapse 'would be 1,000 times' worse than Katrina
News Agencies/Friday, 12 February 2016/The Iraqi government once again warned of the increasing threat of the collapse of the Mosul dam. A source from the Iraqi Prime Minister's office said that if the dam was to collapse, then it will cause a disaster 1000 times worse than Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans in the USA in 2005.

Why is Saudi crucial in the fight against ISIS in Syria?
News Agencies/Friday, 12 February 2016/Brussels hosted meetings of the international coalition against ISIS with the participation of Saudi Defense Minister Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Prince Mohammed Bin Salman met with the defense ministers of America, Britain and Italy on the sidelines of the meetings. Saudi Arabia has renewed its pledge that it is ready to send special forces to Syria to fight ISIS, despite the continued state of political stalling and confusion over the situation in Syria, both in Munich and in the corridors of the United Nations.

U.N. rights expert accuses Israel of excessive force
Reuters, Geneva Friday, 12 February 2016/The U.N. human rights investigator for Gaza and the West Bank called on Israel on Thursday to investigate what he called excessive force used by Israeli security against Palestinians and to prosecute perpetrators. Makarim Wibisono, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories, also told Israeli authorities to charge or release all Palestinian prisoners being held under lengthy administrative detention, including children. “The upsurge in violence is a grim reminder of the unsustainable human rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and the volatile environment it engenders,” he said in a final report to the Human Rights Council. Israel’s foreign ministry dismissed the report as biased. “The report reflects the one-sidedness of the mandate and its flagrant anti-Israel bias. It is this one-sidedness which has made the rapporteur’s mission impossible to fulfil, hence his resignation,” spokesman Emmanuel Nahshon said. ‘Collective punishment’ Wibisono announced his resignation from the independent post last month, effective March 31, accusing Israel of reneging on its pledge to grant him access to Gaza and the West Bank. Wibisino said on Thursday the upsurge of violence came against a backdrop of “illegal” Jewish settlements in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, construction of a wall, and Israel’s blockade of Gaza that amounted to a “stranglehold” and “collective punishment”. Israel must address these issues to uphold international law and ensure protection for Palestinians, he said. Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war and later annexed East Jerusalem, declaring it part of its eternal, indivisible capital, a move never recognized internationally. About 5,680 Palestinians were detained by Israel as of the end of October 2015, including hundreds of minors, Wibisono said, citing figures from the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem. Regarding those under administrative detention, he said: “Hundreds of Palestinians being held, now including children, often under secret evidence, and for up to six-month terms that can be renewed indefinitely, is not consistent with international human rights standards.” “The government of Israel should promptly charge or release all administrative detainees.”

Israeli soldier jailed for abusing Palestinian inmates
AFP, Jerusalem Friday, 12 February 2016/A military court in Israel has sentenced a soldier to seven months in prison for abusing captured Palestinians, following the outbreak last October of anti-Israeli attacks, the military said Thursday.
A statement in response to an AFP query said the man was found guilty Wednesday “on multiple accounts of mistreating apprehended individuals”. “The Israel Defense Forces (army) see in these extreme incidents a total violation and disregard of the IDF’s Code of Conduct and strongly condemns these actions,” it said. The statement did not disclose the offences but news website Ynet said the soldier “on two occasions beat and abused detained Palestinians and also took part in giving electric shock to one of them”.The army statement said the court had yet to rule on “other suspects involved in these extreme incidents”.Ynet said the first incident -- involving a Palestinian arrested on suspicion of militant activity -- took place in October when a wave of Palestinian attacks erupted. The second took place about a week later, with a different prisoner, it said. The violence has since claimed the lives of 26 Israelis, as well as an American, a Sudanese and an Eritrean, according to an AFP count. And 166 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since October 1, most of whom were carrying out attacks while others died during clashes and demonstrations.

CIA: ISIS has used and can make chemical weapons
AFP, Washington Friday, 12 February 2016/CIA director John Brennan has said that ISIS fighters have used chemical weapons and have the capability to make small quantities of chlorine and mustard gas, CBS News reported Thursday.
“We have a number of instances where ISIS has used chemical munitions on the battlefield,” Brennan told CBS News which released excerpts of an interview to air in full on the “60 Minutes” news program on Sunday. The network added that he told “60 Minutes” the CIA believes that the ISIS group has the ability to make small amounts of mustard or chlorine gas for weapons. “There are reports that ISIS has access to chemical precursors and munitions that they can use,” Brennan said. Brennan also warned of the possibility that ISIS could seek to export the weapons to the West for financial gain. “I think there’s always the potential for that. This is why it’s so important to cut off the various transportation routes and smuggling routes that they have used,” he said. When asked if there were “American assets on the ground” searching for possible chemical weapons caches or labs, Brennan replied: “U.S. intelligence is actively involved in being a part of the efforts to destroy ISIS and to get as much insight into what they have on the ground inside of Syria and Iraq.”The release of the excerpts of Brennan’s interview comes two days after similar comments from spy chief James Clapper before a congressional committee. “ISIS has also used toxic chemicals in Iraq and Syria, including the blister agent sulfur mustard,” Clapper, the director of national intelligence, told lawmakers on Tuesday. He said it was the first time an extremist group had produced and used a chemical warfare agent in an attack since Japan’s Aum Supreme Truth cult carried out a deadly sarin attack during rush hour in the Tokyo subway in 1995. Last year, officials in the autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan said blood tests had shown that ISIS fighters used mustard agent in an attack on Kurdish Peshmerga forces in August. Thirty-five Peshmerga fighters were exposed and some taken abroad for treatment, officials said. At the time of the attack, The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials as saying they believed ISIS had used mustard agent.

Iran aims to hurt the U.S. by dumping the dollar
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/February 12/16
Tehran has declared that it is moving away from the U.S. dollar in trade, and welcomes using other currencies instead. According to Iran’s official news agency Shana, Safar-Ali Karamati, deputy director of international affairs for marketing and crude oil operation in the state-owned National Iranian Oil Co, said the country’s “top priority” is “to receive cash and oil demands in euros.”He added: “Because of [the European Union’s] single monetary unit, European customers have no problem paying for crude oil deals in euros.” Two officials at the Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Industries and Mines told me Iran offers several methods of payment other than the dollar for exports and imports. Tehran will make every effort to scuttle U.S. national interests, regional foreign policy and global power. Iranian leaders believe one of the factors behind U.S. global influence is the petrodollar. The dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency, representing more than 60 percent of identified currency reserves. From Iran’s point of view, reducing the use of the petrodollar will negatively affect U.S. power.
Good timing
This is the right time for Iran to back away from the currency. It is not risking a war with the United States, as the White House has signed a nuclear deal with Tehran and is unwilling to jeopardize its crowning foreign-policy accomplishment. Also, Iranian markets are opening up to Russia, China, India and Europe.
Iran is attempting to significantly reduce its dependency on the dollar in case Washington or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accuse Iran of violating the nuclear deal and sanctions are reinstated. That is why there is a rush to seal business deals across Europe and Asia by letting the other party use any currency other than the dollar. For imports, Tehran will also pay with other currencies.
The White House needs to recognize that Iran’s revolutionary government bases its legitimacy on anti-Americanism.
There are still several Iranian individuals and entities that are restricted by U.S. financial sanctions, so they cannot use the American banking system. Backing away from the dollar will help them conduct business with other nations using alternative banking systems and currencies. Washington was jubilant over its enhancing of ties with Iran via the nuclear deal, as it believed Tehran would reciprocate. The problem is that the White House is treating Iran as a typical nation-state that prioritizes its national interests above all else. That is why Washington hopes that providing economic incentives will diminish some of the mistrust that Tehran exhibits and start a new era. However, Iran’s deep animosity toward the United States will continue. Its political establishment is a nexus between national interests and revolutionary principles. The White House needs to recognize that Iran’s revolutionary government bases its legitimacy on anti-Americanism. The government truly and strongly believes that Washington is trying to overthrow it, no matter how many U.S. carrots the ruling clerics are given. In addition, the government will find it hard to survive without a powerful “enemy” to justify helping itself to the nation’s wealth and natural resources, and to blame for all its mistakes.

Bernie Sanders and an insurgent America
Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/February 12/16
Everyone expected Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire. What matters about New Hampshire is that it followed the Iowa primary last week, where Hillary Clinton suffered a stunning setback. She had the overwhelming support of that state’s Democratic leadership, and public opinion polls predicted she would win. Instead, Sanders fought her to a near tie, with 49.6 percent of the vote for him and 49.8 percent for her. New Hampshire had an important role in the Clinton family’s political history. Defeated in the Iowa presidential primary in 1992, Bill Clinton did so well in New Hampshire that he could coin himself “the comeback kid.” In the 2008 contest between Hillary and Barak Obama for the Democratic nomination, Hillary - who had been defeated in Iowa by Obama - beat him in New Hampshire. If Sanders can recreate in the southern and western states the excitement generated by his campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, the nature of the Democratic Party - and possibly that of the federal government - may change dramatically. The Clintons - Hillary, Bill and daughter Chelsea - worked every venue possible in the week leading up to the vote in New Hampshire, expecting to keep the margin of their defeat to a single digit. Instead, Hillary lost by more than 20 percent. Sanders was expected to do much better than her among young voters, but the final result was an overwhelming ratio of six to one for him. Equally important was the loss of white working class voters who had supported her in 2008 and now swung over to Sanders, despite trade union leaders with ties to the Democratic leadership endorsing Hillary. The reason is obvious - the shock of the 2006 housing market crash that set in motion the 2008 recession.
Economic crisis
Some 8 million American families lost their homes either because they were poor or sold fraudulent subprime (high-risk) mortgages with impossibly high interest rates kicking in after several years, which the banks knew they could not pay off. By then, those risky mortgages had been repackaged and sold as supposedly super-safe bonds - fraud number two. When the bonds collapsed, the banks were in danger of collapsing. First George W. Bush then Obama bailed out the big banks responsible for the housing market fraud because they were too big to fail, but did little to nothing to bail out the millions who lost their homes and jobs. No one went to jail, and since the partial recovery almost all of the regenerated income has gone to the top 1 percent of wealth holders. Millions of jobs have been lost as American manufacturers relocate their factories to countries with low labor costs. Billions of dollars in federal and state corporate taxes, which would have offset growing national and state debt, have been lost as companies merge with smaller foreign companies in countries with low or no taxes on corporate profits, thereby legally evading U.S. taxes. Technically that is not fraud, but it borders on economic treason.
Many industries such as textiles, garments and steel have been crippled or wiped out because of imports from China and other countries with low labor costs. All these problems began when Bill Clinton became president, and accelerated during Bush’s eight years in office. None of this has been corrected in any significant way during Obama’s eight-year presidency. The cost of university and college education has soared over the past two decades, and many students end up graduating owing the government over $100,000 plus interest. Sanders promises no more tuition fees at public (state) universities, and tax relief for graduates heavily in debt. Now the primaries shift to states with large black and Hispanic populations, particularly in the south and west where blacks dominate the Democratic Party - states where the Clintons retain popularity because of their endless assertions that they love black people, and symbolic gestures such as going to Sunday services in predominantly black churches. If Sanders can recreate in the southern and western states the excitement generated by his campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, the nature of the Democratic Party - and possibly that of the federal government - may change dramatically.

IRGC Deputy-Commander Hossein Salami: 'Iran Has Built Great Capabilities In Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, And Yemen'
MEMRI/February 12, 2016 Special Dispatch No.6304
In a December 16, 2015 speech at the second Basij Supreme Assembly in Mashhad, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deputy commander Hossein Salami reviewed the geopolitical developments in the Middle East in the wake of the Russian intervention in Syria. Emphasizing that Iran has triumphed in the Middle East and that its "offspring," that is, its emissaries, are in the eastern Mediterranean, he said that Iran has built great capabilities in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Conversely, he said, Iran's enemies are floundering: Turkey wished to become a regional power but in reality it cannot make an impact "even 10 meters away" from its borders; Saudi Arabia's policies are failing in Yemen, Iraq and Syria; and America has lost much of its influence in the Middle East and has become nothing more than a "regular player." He also noted that the power of Iran and its allies "benefited the Iranian nuclear team at the negotiating table."
The following are excerpts from his statements: [1]
Salami Criticizes Turkey, Saudi Arabia, And America
"Every time that Islam rose, all the polytheists and enemies of Islam launched a military expedition against God's religion – but despite all of these obstacles, Islam found its path of jihad, its arena of influence, and its range of impact.
"It was those who experienced economic sanctions during the Shaab Abi Taleb era and immigrated to Al-Madina from Mecca with Muhammad who spread Islam.[2] All the great global wars that have occurred in the region of the Islamic world were in order to change the destiny of Islam. Wars were even shaped in Europe to topple the Muslims.
"From the day the Islamic Revolution [in Iran] was victorious [in 1979], the U.S. and the Zionist regime attacked 14 Muslim countries, and the U.S. alone attacked seven Muslim countries – but with the grace of God and the blessing of the Jurisprudent [Iran's ruler], in the era of [Ayatollah Ruhollah] Khomeini and in the grand era of [Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei, Iran thwarted the focus of the enemy's strategy on the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It was an artistic performance, and a divine wonder, that at the peak of the military blockade [against Iran] all of these focuses [on Iran] were thwarted. At one point, their artillery shells targeted Ahvaz, and our cities, in order to eliminate the concept called Islam from the political geography of the Islamic world. But Islam, and revolution, were able to change the battlefield.
"Look at the radius of our action today. Our offspring in the eastern Mediterranean are monitoring the developments. The order built by the great powers has completely collapsed. The Red Sea and the Mediterranean, Lebanon, Syria, and Bahrain [were once under] U.S. [influence, but] are no longer so. They [the Americans] have lost huge areas. Today, we are facing complicated developments. But when we study these developments, we realize this divine reality: Victory is in our hands.
"All our enemies have something in common: all of them faced a strategic dead end, and are wandering around, [not knowing how] to continue their policies. Look at Turkey. This country wanted to play the role of the great regional power – but it is incapable of making an impact even 10 meters away from it. [Turkey] felt that the atmosphere was ready for it to reclaim an expanded role. But after five years of financial, political, and economic efforts, it has not succeeded in any area. We consider Turkey strategically incapable, [even] with a fancy army. [All its] bluffing and threats [are based on] the support of the Americans. Turkey is incapable of expanding its power; it has a fancy army with stylish equipment, but it has never [even] fought the Kurds.
"Look at Saudi Arabia. It [too] is dependent on American power. Now, look at the power of Islamic Iran, which has rapidly expanded, and which has built huge capabilities beyond [Iran's] borders, in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Look at the geography of Iran's power vis-a-vis the deployment of the arrogance [i.e. the U.S.], and at how [Iran] has forced the U.S. to change [its] strategy.
"Saudi Arabia has halted the price of oil at $35/bbl, in order to fight Yemen. But it is stuck in the Yemeni arena too. The Yemeni arena has become to a deadly swamp for Saudi Arabia. [Saudi] policies have failed in Iraq and Syria as well, and this is a sorry end for the Saudis, who think they can have influence in the Islamic world in the proxy war with our holy regime. They live in glass palaces, and cannot confront us in tough arenas. The drop in oil prices has caused them the greatest of losses; their currency reserves have decreased dramatically.
"Look at America. ISIS's increased power has become a threat to America. It is interesting that [the Americans] attack ISIS – but that when we [attack ISIS], they support ISIS... [America's] strategy in Syria has become a problem for it, and [the Americans] do not know whether Bashar Al-Assad should stay or go. With regard to Iraq, America is [also] wondering whether to stay or go.
"America has become a [mere] regular player, and we are assessing its activity in the arena. Its ground forces are not that powerful. The balance [of forces] in the arena is beneficial to us. He who can take initiative can assert himself in the political arena, and we saw this initiative in the nuclear negotiations – the offspring of [Iran's Islamic] Revolution have created an exceptional capability in the resistance axis, which benefited the Iranian nuclear team at the negotiating table.
"The terrorists and their supporters need to know that the era during which it was possible for someone to slap the Prophet Zaynab[3] is over. We will cut their throats... cut off their fingers, and not allow such boldness."
Endnotes:
[1] Tasnimnews.com/fa/news, 16 December, 2015.
[2] Abu Talib – the Prophet Muhammad's uncle and the father of Ali, who, according to Shi'a tradition, is Muhammad's rightful successor – acted as Muhammad's guardian during his youth. When Muhammad began preaching Islam, the pagan members of the Quraysh tribe elicited the support of other tribes to boycott trading with Abi Talib and his clan.
Salami is drawing a historical parallel here, comparing the early Muslims, who suffered "economic sanctions" (with emphasis on Abi Talib, due to his importance to the Shi'a), to Shi'ite Iran, which is subjected to economic sanctions today.
[3] Apparently a reference to the daughter of Ali ibn Abi Talib and granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad, whose tomb near Damascus is an important Shi'ite site of pilgrimage.

Germany’s Migrant Crisis: January 2016/”Migrants Have No Respect for our Constitutional Order”
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/February 12, 2016
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7423/germany-migrant-crisis
Despite snow, ice and freezing temperatures across much of Europe, a total of 91,671 migrants entered Germany during January 2016.
German taxpayers could end up paying 450 billion euros ($500 billion) for the upkeep of the million migrants who arrived in Germany in 2015. This would presumably double to nearly one trillion euros if another million migrants arrive in 2016.
A 19-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted four girls between the ages of 11 and 13 at a swimming pool in Dresden. The migrant was arrested but then set free.
Three teenage migrants from North Africa tried to stone to death two transsexuals in Dortmund after they were seen walking around in women’s clothing. The victims were saved by police.
Bild reported that politicians in Kiel had ordered the police to overlook crimes perpetrated by migrants.
“The topics we cover are determined by the government. … We must report in such a way that serves Europe and the common good, as it pleases Mrs. Merkel. … today we are not allowed to say anything negative about the refugees. This is government journalism.” – Wolfgang Herles, retired public media personality.
The European Commission called for the “rejection of false associations between certain criminal acts, such as the attacks on women in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, and the mass influx of refugees.”
In January 2016, the German public appeared finally to wake up to the implications of their government’s decision to allow 1.1 million — mostly male — migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East to enter the country during 2015.
After more than a thousand Muslim migrants sexually assaulted hundreds of women in cities across Germany on New Year’s Eve, Chancellor Angela Merkel began to face a rising voter backlash to her open-door migration policy.
Merkel’s government has responded to the criticism by: 1) attempting to silence critics of the open-door migration policy; 2) trying to “export” the migrant problem to other countries in the European Union; and 3) announcing a series of measures — branded as unrealistic by critics — to deport migrants accused of committing crimes in Germany.
What Merkel has steadfastly refused to do, however, is reduce the number of migrants entering the country. Despite snow, ice and freezing temperatures across much of Europe, a total of 91,671 migrants — an average of around 3,000 migrants each day — entered Germany during the month of January 2016.
The following is a review of some of the more notable stories about the migration crisis in Germany during January 2016.
January 1. More than a thousand migrants sexually assaulted hundreds of German women in the cities of Cologne, Hamburg and Stuttgart. The government and the mainstream media were accused of trying to cover up the crimes, apparently to avoid fueling anti-immigration sentiment.
January 1. As Muslim migrants were causing mayhem on German streets, the Minister President of Baden-Württemberg, Winfried Kretschmann, said he could not understand public concerns about the “alleged Islamization” of Germany. In an interview with Die Welt, he said: “If you look at the facts, this fear is unfounded. We have a stable democracy and a free society. State and religion are separated. How should Muslims, who represent a minority, Islamize our society?” When asked why Germans are afraid, Kretschmann replied: “People are afraid of strangers they do not know.”
January 1. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that 1.3 million asylum seekers would enter the European Union annually during 2016 and 2017.
January 2. A fight between children as young as 11 at a refugee shelter in Stockach near Konstanz turned into a mass brawl after parents of the children joined in the fighting. Police were deployed to restore order. Seven people were injured.
January 3. A 16-year-old Moroccan migrant went on a rampage after a judge in Bremenordered him to be jailed for stealing a man’s laptop at knife-point. On the way from the courthouse to the jail, the Moroccan seriously injured a police officer by kicking him in the face. Once inside the jail cell, the migrant ripped a toilet from the floor and smashed it against a wall.
The chairman of the Bremen Police Union, Jochen Kopelke, said that migrants were attacking city police with increasing frequency: “The tone has become extremely aggressive; sometimes the police must apply massive force to get a situation under control.” According to Bremen Senator Ulrich Mäurer, “the excesses of violence against police officers show that these people have no respect for our constitutional order and its representatives.”
January 3. More than 50 migrants were involved in a mass brawl at a refugee shelter inEllwangen near Stuttgart. Police said migrants attacked each other with fire extinguishers, metal pipes, rocks and stones. According to local media, mass brawls have become commonplace at migrant shelters in the area.
January 3. Hans-Werner Sinn, one of the best-known economists in Germany, cited estimates that German taxpayers could end up paying 450 billion euros ($500 billion) for the upkeep of the million migrants who arrived in Germany in 2015. This estimate would presumably double to nearly one trillion euros if another million migrants arrive in Germany in 2016.
January 4. An internal report written by a senior federal police officer revealed chaos “beyond description” in Cologne on New Year’s Eve. The report, which was leaked to the news magazine Der Spiegel and published in full by the newspaper Bild, said that women were forced to “run a gauntlet” of drunken men of a “migrant background” to enter or depart the main train station. “Even the appearance of the police officers and their initial measures did not stop the masses from their actions.” One migrant told a police officer: “I am Syrian; you have to treat me kindly! Mrs. Merkel has invited me.”
January 5. Cologne Mayor Henriette Reker said: “There is no reason to believe that those involved in the sexual assaults in Cologne were refugees.” Cologne Police Chief Wolfgang Albers said: “At this time we have no information about the offenders.”
January 6. Former Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich said it was “scandalous that it took the mainstream media several days” to report on the sexual assaults in Cologne. He said public media was a “cartel of silence” exercising censorship to protect migrants from accusations of wrongdoing.
January 7. A charity called Refugees Welcome Bonn, which organized a Rhine River cruise as welcoming party for migrants in Bonn, apologized after it emerged that migrants groped and sexually harassed some female guests during the event.
January 8. The Interior Ministry revealed that of the 32 suspects identified in the Cologne assaults, 22 were asylum seekers. Cologne Police Chief Wolfgang Albers was fired for withholding information about the assaults from the public.
January 9. A vigilante group began patrolling the streets of Düsseldorf to “make the city safer for our women.” Similar groups emerged in Cologne and Stuttgart.
January 10. Three teenage migrants from North Africa tried to stone to death two transsexuals in Dortmund after they were seen walking around in women’s clothing. The victims were saved by police, who happened to pass by in a car. One of the victims said: “I never could have imagined that something like this could happen in Germany.”
January 11. A 35-year-old migrant from Pakistan sexually assaulted a three-year-old girl at a refugee shelter in Kamen.
January 12. In an interview with Bild, Frank Oesterhelweg, a politician with the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), caused a scandal when he said that police should be authorized to use deadly force to prevent migrants from raping German women:
“These criminals deserve no tolerance, they have to be stopped by the police. By force if necessary, and, yes, you read correctly, even with firearms. An armed police officer has a duty to help a desperate woman. One must, if necessary, protect the victims by means of force: With truncheons, water cannons or firearms.”
Police union leader Dietmar Schilff was irate: “These statements are outrageous and do not help the police at all. There are clear rules for using the service weapon. What would have happened in Cologne if the police had used clubs and guns?” According to Bild, many German police officers are afraid of using lethal force “because of the legal consequences.”
January 12. A YouGov poll showed that 62% of Germans believe the number of asylum seekers is too high, up from 53% in November. According to the poll, the growing resistance to immigration was being driven by the hardening of attitudes by German women.
January 13. An Interior Ministry report leaked to Bild warned that jihadist attacks like those in Paris could take place in Germany “at any time.” The report said that attacks would likely be spread over several days and against “various target categories.”
January 13. A 20-year-old migrant from Somalia was sentenced to four years in prison forraping an 88-year-old woman in Herford. His defense attorneys argued for leniency because, according to them, the man was traumatized by his flight from Somalia. In Gelsenkirchen, four migrants attacked a 45-year-old man after he tried to prevent them from raping a 13-year-old girl.
January 14. The Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, approved a plan to provide all refugees with identity cards that will contain information such as fingerprints and country of origin. The cards will be linked to a centralized refugee data system. The plan may be too late: the German government has lost track of the whereabouts of hundreds of thousands of migrants who entered the country in 2015.
January 14. Prosecutors in Cologne said they were offering a reward of 10,000 euros ($11,000) for information leading to the arrest or identification of those who committed the sexual assaults and robberies on New Year’s Eve.
January 14. A Bavarian politician sent a bus carrying 31 refugees on a seven-hour journey to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin to protest her open-door refugee policy. Merkel sentthe migrants back to Bavaria.
January 14. City officials in Rheinberg cancelled this year’s carnival celebrations. Local police said that in wake of the sexual assaults in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, they were unable to guarantee the safety of female revelers.
January 15. A 36-year-old migrant sexually assaulted an eight-year-old girl at a public park in Hilden near Solingen. A 31-year-old migrant from Tunisia was arrested for attempting to rape a 30-year-old woman in Chemnitz. A 31-year-old migrant from Morocco appeared in court for raping a 31-year-old woman in Dresden. A migrant sexually assaulted a 42-year-old woman inMainz. A migrant sexually assaulted a 32-year-old woman in Münchfeld. An African migrantsexually assaulted a 55-year-old woman in Mannheim.
January 15. Male migrants were banned from a public swimming pool in Bornheim, near Bonn, after they were accused of assaulting female patrons at the facility.
January 15. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, signaled his determination to export Germany’s migrant problem by calling for a Europe-wide gas tax to help pay for the cost of hosting millions of migrants. He said:
“If the funds in national budgets and the European budget are not enough, then let us agree, for example, to raise a levy on every liter of gasoline at a certain level. If a country refuses to pay, I am still prepared to do it. Then we will build a coalition of the willing.”
January 16. Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the German Bundestag and a lawmaker in Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), called upon the government to create a Ministry for Migration, Integration and Refugees. He said the migrant crisis had developed into a “primary and permanent task for the state” and is of “decisive importance for the future of our country and Europe.”
January 16. A 19-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted four girls between the ages of 11 and 13 at an indoor swimming pool in Dresden. The migrant was arrested but then set free. A migrant from Syria sexually assaulted a 12-year-old girl in Mudersbach. A 36-year-old migrant sexually assaulted an eight-year-old girl in Mettmann.
January 16. A group of between six and eight African migrants ambushed three people leaving a discotheque in Offenburg. The migrants were ejected from the discotheque after female clients complained that the men were sexually harassing them. After they left, at around 4AM, the migrants attacked them with metal rods, street signs and garbage bins.
January 17. In an interview with Bild am Sonntag, the president of the federal criminal police, Holger Münch, said that the number of crimes in refugee shelters had increased “significantly” since 2015, when the migrant influx began. He said that the migrants mostly responsible were from the Balkans and North Africa, especially Algerians, Tunisians and Moroccans. He added that half the offenses at the refugee shelters were physical assaults, but that there was also a growing number of homicides and sexual crimes.
January 17. In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, former Bavarian Prime Minister Edmund Stoiber warned that Chancellor Angela Merkel will “destroy Europe” if she refuses to reduce the number of migrants entering Germany.
January 17. Berlin clergyman Gottfried Martens accused German politicians and church leaders of ignoring the persecution of Christians by Muslims in German refugee shelters. He said that the Christians were facing “verbal threats, threats with knives, blows to the face, ripped crucifixes, torn bibles, insults of being an infidel, and denial of access to the kitchen because of uncleanness.”
January 18. A 26-year-old Algerian man was the first person to be arrested in connection with a string of sexual assaults during New Year’s celebrations in Cologne. He was apprehended at a refugee shelter in the nearby town of Kerpen. Cologne’s chief prosecutor, Ulrich Bremer, said that nearly 500 women had come forward with allegations of sexual assault, including three cases of rape.
January 18. A 24-year-old migrant from Sudan was released after being held for questioning at a police station in Hanover. After crossing the street, the man, who receives 300 euros ($335) a month in social welfare benefits, dropped his pants and exposed himself in public andshouted, “Who are you? You cannot do anything to me. Whatever I cannot get from the state, I will steal.”
January 19. Addressing the European Parliament in Strasbourg, European Council President Donald Tusk warned that the European Union had “no more than two months” to get control over the migration crisis or face the collapse of the Schengen passport-free travel zone.
January 19. A poll published by Bild showed that support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc was down 2.5 points at 32.5%, its lowest result since the 2013 election. The poll showed that support for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) was up 1 point at 12.5%; support for the Social Democrats was up 1 point at 22.5%.
January 19. A 28-year-old migrant from Iran pushed a 20-year-old woman onto the tracks of an oncoming train in Berlin. She later died.
January 20. Bild reported that migrants invaded female changing rooms and showers at two public swimming pools in Leipzig. Migrants, dressed in their street clothes and underwear, also jumped into the swimming pools. According to Bild, the city hall had tried to keep the incidents quiet, but details were leaked to the media.
January 21. More than 200 migrants have sued the German government for delays in processing their asylum applications.
January 22. Facing political pressure over the migrant crisis, Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Berlin with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to discuss ways to stem the flow of Syrian and other refugees from Turkish shores. She renewed a pledge to provide Turkey with financial support. In November 2015, EU leaders pledged 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) to Ankara to help care for an estimated 2.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey; the deal has been delayed by a dispute among EU member states over who will pay.
January 22. A report by municipal authorities in Zwickau that was leaked to Bild revealed that migrants were defecating in public swimming pools. Security cameras also filmed migrants harassing women in the public sauna and attempting to storm the female dressing room.
January 22. Police in Hanover investigated four nightclub bouncers for allegedly beating an 18-year-old Algerian migrant after he tried to steal the purses of two teenage girls. Two days before the incident, the migrant had been sentenced to one year in juvenile detention for robbery, but he was free to roam the streets until his sentence began.
January 22. A migrant attempted to rape a 16-year-old girl in Feuerbach district of Stuttgart, and in downtown Stuttgart, four migrants sexually assaulted a 23-year-old woman.
January 23. The Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that migrants had attacked women in 12 of Germany’s 16 states on New Year’s Eve. In addition to the attacks Cologne, 195 women filed complaints in Hamburg; 31 in Hesse; 27 in Bavaria; 25 in Baden-Württemberg; 11 in Bremen; and six in Berlin.
January 23. Two migrants sexually assaulted an 18-year-old woman in Wiesbaden, and a 35-year-old migrant sexually assaulted a woman in a restroom on a train in Düsseldorf.
January 23. The Stuttgarter Nachrichten reported that dental work for migrants could end up costing German taxpayers billions of euros.
January 24. An official police report leaked to The Huffington Post showed that Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière was not being truthful when he said that between 100 and 200 migrants are being denied entry into Germany each day. The report stated that since September 14, border police had prevented 7,185 migrants from entering the country — or only about 60 migrants turned away each day.
January 25. A 30-year-old migrant from North African exposed himself to a 19-year-old woman on a public bus in Marburg, and then to passersby at the main train station.
January 26. In an
with the German public radio, Deutschlandfunk, retired public media personality Wolfgang Herles admitted that public broadcasters receive “instructions from above” when it comes to reporting the news:
“We have the problem that we are too close to the government. The topics we cover are determined by the government. But many of the topics the government wants to prevent us from reporting about are more important than the topics they want us to cover…
“We must report in such a way that serves Europe [the European Union] and the common good, as it pleases Mrs. Merkel. There are written instructions … today we are not allowed to say anything negative about the refugees. This is government journalism, and this leads to a situation in which the public loses their trust in us. This is scandalous.”
Previously, Claudia Zimmermann, a reporter with the public television broadcaster WDR, saidthat public media outlets in Germany “have been warned to report the news from a pro-government perspective.”
January 26. A 24-year-old man on an evening stroll with his three-month-old baby daughter in the Eißendorf district of Hamburg was approached by two migrants who demanded his wallet and cellphone. When he said he was not carrying any valuables, the migrants attacked him with a knife. Fleeing for his life, the man ran onto a frozen pond and broke through the ice. A passerby heard the man calling for help. The baby, under water for an extended period, was revived by paramedics called to the scene. The baby remains in intensive care; the migrants remain at large.
January 26. A 28-year-old migrant from Algeria applied for asylum in Wesel. Authorities became suspicious because of his proficiency in German. They later determined that he had arrived in Germany in November 2014, rather than, as he claimed, in October 2015. It emerged that he had outstanding warrants for theft, but evaded police by using six different identities.
January 26. The Kieler Nachrichten reported that the proliferation of sexual assaults by migrants has women in the northern city of Kiel afraid to be out at night because the city is too dark. In an effort to save electricity, municipal officials decided to convert all of the city’s street lights to LED bulbs, but they do not provide sufficient light to keep the streets illuminated at night.
January 26. The mayor of Freiburg, Dieter Salomon, ordered police to take a hard line against migrants accused of snatching purses and assaulting women in the city’s discotheques. According to club owners, migrants have been robbing women on the dance floor and raping them in the restrooms. Many of the offenders are allegedly underage migrants from North Africa. Club owners say that the migrants are not afraid of authority: “They know that nothing will happen to them here.”
January 27. A 39-year-old migrant from Afghanistan tried to enter Germany at Simbach, a town on the border of Austria. A background check determined that in May 2000, a German court had sentenced the man to an eight-year prison term for rape. He had been deported to Afghanistan in 2006 with orders never to return.
January 27. The public radio and television channel, Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk, reported that German taxi drivers are profiting from the migrant crisis by taking migrants to doctors’ appointments and asylum interviews. The cab fares are being paid for by German taxpayers. MDR reported on a taxi company in Leipzig that had billed the government for 800 taxi fares for taking migrants to run errands. One taxi driver, for example, drove a migrant family on an 80 km (50 mile) journey for an appointment with migration authorities. The meter was left running while the driver waited for the migrants to return from their meeting. The fare was 309 euros ($344).
January 28. Bild reported that politicians in Kiel had ordered the police to overlook crimes perpetrated by migrants. According to the paper, the police in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony have also been instructed to be lenient to criminal migrants.
January 28. A migrant from Sudan sexually assaulted a female police officer in Hanover as she was attempting to arrest him for theft. Public prosecutor Thomas Klinge confirmed the incident. “Such brazen behavior towards a police officer has been unheard of until now,” he said.
January 28. Berlin’s Tempelhof airport, the iconic site of the Berlin Airlift in 1948-49, is set tobecome the biggest refugee shelter in Germany. In a controversial move to alter the airport’s zoning regulations, Berlin’s municipal government — run by a coalition between the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party — voted to build five massive structures to house 7,000 migrants there. Opposition politicians said the government was creating an “immigrant ghetto” in the heart of Berlin.
January 28. Police in Berlin said that a volunteer with the charity group Moabit Hilft hadfabricated a story about a 24-year-old migrant said to have died while waiting for days outside an asylum registration office. The story was allegedly faked in an effort to embarrass the government for its slow response to the migrant crisis.
January 29. The European Commission, the powerful administrative arm of the European Union, said that the sexual assaults in Cologne had nothing to do with the migrant crisis and were simply a matter of public order. A confidential memo leaked to The Telegraph stressed the importance of the Commission’s “continuing role in sounding the voice of reason to defuse tensions and counter populist rhetoric.” The Commission called for “the unconditional rejection of false associations between certain criminal acts, such as the attacks on women in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, and the mass influx of refugees.”
January 29. A public vocational school in the Wilhelmsburg district of Hamburg cancelled plans to host classes for refugees after male migrants sexually harassed dozens of female students at the school.
January 29. The German news magazine Focus published the results of a poll showing that 40% of Germans want Chancellor Angela Merkel to resign because of her migrant policies.
January 30. A gang of migrants on a Munich subway train were filmed attacking two elderly men who tried to stop them from groping a woman. Images show the migrants grabbing two men by the arms and neck and shouting abuse at them. It later emerged that the migrants were from Afghanistan; although they had been denied asylum in Germany four years ago, the German government refused to deport them because Afghanistan is “too dangerous.”
January 31. The Interior Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Holger Stahlknecht, of the Christian Democrats, announced that he would delay releasing the 2015 crime statistics until March 29, two-and-half weeks after regional elections. The statistics are normally released in February or early March. Rüdiger Erben of the Social Democrats said: “The late release date reinforces my suspicion that the statistics are horrific.”
January 31. ISIS sympathizers defaced more than 40 gravestones at a cemetery in Konstanzwith slogans such as, “Germans out of Syria,” “Christ is Dead” and “Islamic State.”
January 31. A 30-year-old German, originally from Turkmenistan, raped a seven-year-old girl inKiel. The man kidnapped the girl from a school playground at 11AM, took her to his apartment and, after abusing her, set her free. It later emerged that the man, who is the father of two children, had been accused of sexually assaulting a five-year-old girl at another kindergarten in Kiel on January 18, but the public prosecutors failed to pursue the case due to insufficient evidence. “In hindsight, we regret that decision,” the prosecutors said.
January 31. In an underhanded effort to silence critics of the government’s open door migration policy, Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called on German intelligence to begin monitoring the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the third-largest party in Germany. The AfD is surging in popularity because of its anti-immigration platform.
Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter. His first book, Global Fire, will be out in 2016.
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Washington's Self-Deterrence Problem in Syria
James F. Jeffrey/Washington Institute/February 12/16
If Moscow can get away with boldly flouting U.S. interests in a key American security zone such as the Middle East, where might it interfere next, and at what cost to the international security system?
As Secretary of State John Kerry visits Germany for the 52nd Munich Security Conference this week, questions about Washington's hesitant policy in Syria continue to mount. During testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on December 9, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and Joint Chiefs vice chairman Gen. Paul Selva confirmed the notion that the Obama administration has effectively "self-deterred" itself out of more robust action in the war, including the oft-recommended move of establishing a safe haven in northern Syria. As Selva put it, "We have the military capacity to impose a no-fly zone. The question that we need to ask is, do we have the political and policy backdrop with which to do so?"
The answer thus far has been no. Between Moscow's massive, indiscriminate bombing campaign since September and the resultant successes of the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance in the past two weeks, the Obama administration has taken no effective military or political action to counter the Kremlin's moves. While direct confrontation would not have been wise, traditional U.S. responses to such provocations have typically included ostentatious military deployments, concrete steps to stymie a Russian military victory, and efforts to reassure allies through "presence." Yet almost nothing of the sort has occurred during Moscow's Syria intervention. Rather, the administration appears to have deterred itself from action, with dramatic effects on the war and potentially serious implications for the entire U.S. global security system.
The latest developments -- namely, the suspension of the Geneva peace talks, and a sweeping offensive by the Russian "axis" to take Aleppo and defeat the opposition in the populous western provinces -- deal a bitter blow to the administration's stated strategy of seeking a Syria free of Assad and a Middle East free of raging Sunni-Shiite conflict. Yet something much larger is at risk as well: the integrity of U.S. security relationships in the region since the 1970s. The rapidity with which Russia, the Assad regime, and their Iranian-led Shiite militia allies have achieved success on the ground, juxtaposed with Washington's inability to play its traditional military balancing role, could undercut faith in the United States, especially given the administration's slow, almost timid military campaign against the Islamic State. As one U.S. official told the Daily Beast on February 7, Moscow and Washington's differing approach "tells the region who the players are. America is feckless and Russia and Iran are reliable allies."
Analysts will long sort out how the United States arrived at this impasse. The region's critically dysfunctional condition bears a share of blame, as does President Obama's general skepticism toward the use of force. Yet much of the blame lies with the administration's self-deterring reaction to Russian power projection in a traditional U.S. security arena. Almost immediately after Russian forces entered Syria last fall, the president underlined that the United States would not directly confront Moscow there. Instead, he spoke dismissively of the intervention, calling it a quagmire for Russian forces and thus absolving himself of the need to do anything. But he did not say how he would respond to Russian aircraft targeting U.S.-supported rebel factions. Instead, he rejected the notion of broader action -- presumably to include a no-fly or buffer zone -- as "mumbo jumbo" by people who do not know what they are talking about.
The administration did eventually deploy F-15 air-to-air combat fighters to Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey. Almost simultaneously, however, it withdrew U.S. Patriot surface-to-air missile units that had been placed in Turkey under NATO command since 2012 in response to the Syria crisis (though other NATO Patriot units remained). And soon thereafter, the F-15s were withdrawn as well.
The U.S. reaction to Turkey's November shootdown of a Russian aircraft further highlighted the administration's overwhelming concern for avoiding incidents. While the State Department declared on November 24 that "we do stand by Turkey as a NATO ally," the president emphasized the need to deescalate. To be sure, some caution was understandable given the danger of that situation, and the political wisdom of Ankara's move was questionable. Yet the genesis of the incident was a Russian incursion into a Turkish province long claimed by Moscow's ally, the Syrian regime. In light of Ankara's legal justification, Russia's responsibility for entering a sensitive area, and Turkey's NATO status, the U.S. response was lukewarm at best.
Seen in this context, General Selva's December testimony was no surprise. Speculating about the military feasibility of establishing a buffer zone in the north, he asked, "Could we do it? The answer is yes. Are we willing to engage the potential of a...direct conflict with the Syrian integrated air defense system or, by corollary, a miscalculation with the Russians should they choose to contest the no-fly zone? The consequences of activity by surface-to-air missile systems and air-defense aircraft have to be factored into the equation. We have the capability to deal with those. The consequence is a direct confrontation with Russia or Syria." And in January before the same Senate committee, former National Security Council staffer Philip Gordon, who often channels the administration's thinking, complemented Selva's military self-deterrence with a dose of political self-deterrence. After declaring that "almost any peace in Syria would be better than the current war," he not only ruled out direct American intervention, but also argued against increased support for the rebels. "Given the strong Russian and Iranian commitments to support the regime," he argued, "such an escalation would [lead] to a new counter escalation."
True deterrence is a much more readily understandable obstacle to action than "self-deterrence." When an opponent has a preponderance of force and a priority political interest in a given situation -- that is, capabilities and intent, the two key military and geostrategic determinants of action -- then deterrence is real, emanating from the other side, and not something one side imposes on itself. Examples include Russia's actions in Crimea and, to some degree, Beijing's in the South China Sea. There are real limits to what Washington can do to challenge such actions, however illegal, because the governments in question see those areas as essential to their interests -- they have the clear intent to defend them and the military capability to do so even against the United States, short of all-out war.
This is demonstrably not the case in Syria, though. Russia is not without legitimate interests there, most notably a longstanding relationship with the Assad regime and a naval base on the Syrian coast. Yet such interests are minor compared to America's. While Syria itself is not critical to the United States, it is nestled in the center of a critically important U.S. security zone, with one of Washington's strongest NATO allies, Turkey, just to the north and one of its closest friends, Israel, to the south. Two other close security partners, Jordan and Iraq, also border Syria. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and other key Gulf partners, along with Ankara and to some degree Jordan, all support the Syrian opposition, and most see the war as the region's main security challenge. Washington itself has called for Assad to leave since 2011, supported its partners in aiding rebel groups, and conducted CIA train-and-equip operations out of Jordan. More broadly, the United States has played the preponderant role in Middle East security since the 1970s, and countered Russian moves there in 1973 and 1980. Thus, America would presumably have the intent to protect this important position.
It clearly has the military capability to do so as well, as General Selva indicated. Russia initially intervened with only thirty-four fighter aircraft and a few helicopters. The Syrian air force is no longer combat effective, and Iran cannot project airpower very far. Yet the United States typically has between 150 and 200 combat aircraft in the Middle East, while four of its nearby partners (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt) have at least 200-300 each, and Jordan almost 100 more. Syrian and Russian air defense systems are a threat, of course, but as General Selva noted, U.S. forces can cope with them. Furthermore, Russia's aircraft face NATO Patriot batteries in southern Turkey, additional Patriot batteries in Israel, advanced U.S. radar systems just to the south of Syria, and highly capable Aegis antiaircraft systems on ships off the coast.
In other words, Vladimir Putin was the one who inserted himself into an extremely dangerous situation where the correlation of forces was tipped dramatically against him, and where the United States would presumably have every intention of countering him. Yet he seems to have won his bet, not because the United States was incapable of acting, but rather because Washington decided it was too risky to do so.
Granted, toying with a nuclear power always carries risks, but surely Putin knew this as well when intervening in an American security zone. The United States did not let such risks deter it from reacting to Russian moves into Cuba in 1962, into the Middle East in later decades, or into Central America in the 1980s. Today, however, Washington tends to self-deter even in confrontations with nonnuclear powers, as seen in President Obama's frequent admonitions that escalating the campaign against the Islamic State could lead to "thousands of casualties," another Iraq war, and a decade of forces committed.
Three conclusions flow from these observations. First, having "blinked" despite overwhelming military superiority, the United States will have a hard time responding now that Russia seems to be moving from victory to victory in Syria, and the difficulty will only grow the longer Washington waits. Second, if Putin can get away with such activities in Syria, where might he act next, whether he has military superiority or not? If U.S. deterrence fails in one place out of a simple lack of will and intent, might it not fail elsewhere? Third, what happens if Putin miscalculates and blunders into some region where even President Obama feels compelled to act? Such questions show how continued inaction is increasing the danger to U.S. interests and the international security system -- not, as the administration believes, forestalling it.
**James Jeffrey is the Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute and former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Turkey.

Will US, Russia be able to turn 'words on paper' into action in Syria?
Laura Rozen/Al-Monitor/February 12/16
MUNICH — World powers led by US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that they had agreed on an ambitious plan for rapid humanitarian aid delivery to seven besieged areas in Syria, including air drops to territory held by the Islamic State and a temporary “cessation of hostilities” to be worked out over the next week.
Under the plan, announced by Kerry and Lavrov at a midnight press conference in Munich after six hours of grueling meetings involving some 18 nations, the United Nations would convene two task forces, each co-chaired by the United States and Russia. One task force would begin work in Geneva this weekend to organize and oversee implementation of humanitarian aid delivery to the most besieged areas in Syria. These include not only areas accessible by truck convoy that are besieged by Syrian government forces and their allies, but one town, Deir ez-Zor, held by the Islamic State, where the plan is to air-drop assistance.
The second task force would aim to organize a cessation of hostilities, or temporary truce, with the goal of getting the Syrian government and rebel groups to agree to freeze fighting in one week’s time and eventually to work toward a broader and more lasting cease-fire.
The plan, Kerry acknowledged, was hugely ambitious, and it remains to be seen, he said, whether the words in the communiqué unanimously agreed to by the 20-member International Syria Support Group (ISSG) could be translated into facts on the ground.
“Everybody today agreed on the urgency of humanitarian access,” Kerry told journalists at the joint press conference with Lavrov and UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura Feb. 12. “And what we have here are words on paper. What we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground in the field.”
With attention in Munich focused on rapidly producing concrete humanitarian deliverables and a reduction in violence in Syria, ambitions receded for a near-term resumption of the intra-Syrian political talks in Geneva. For now, that might suit both the Syrian opposition, currently pushed back on its heels, and the Damascus government, emboldened by its recent military gains, backed by Russian airstrikes. A permanent end to hostilities, however, would not come without an eventual political resolution, Kerry asserted.
“We have no illusions about how difficult that is,” said Kerry. “No one here is following some pipe dream in this effort. People fully understand that compromise will be necessary, that it will be essential to resolve very tough issues that are outstanding. But without a political transition, it is not possible to achieve peace.”In a demonstration of the international group’s effort to try to rapidly translate the ambitious plan into action and lessen the misery of millions of Syrians, the de Mistura announced only hours after the ISSG Munich meeting that the first gathering of the ISSG task force on humanitarian aid would hold its first meeting Feb. 12 at 4 p.m. in Geneva.
The ISSG plan is based on a US text brought to Munich, a former Gulf-based diplomat said. On aid delivery to the seven most besieged areas, the ISSG communiqué states, “In order to accelerate the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid, sustained delivery of assistance shall begin this week by air to Deir Ez Zour and simultaneously to Fouah, Kafrayah, the besieged areas of rural Damascus, Madaya, Mouadhimiyeh, and Kafr Batna by land, and continue as long as humanitarian needs persist.” Russia said it would begin work with the Syrian government to coordinate air drops of food by helicopter into Deir ez-Zor in the coming days. The other major plank of the new plan would bring US and Russian diplomatic and military officials together in the task force to try to lay the groundwork for an eventual cease-fire, beginning with what the diplomats called a cessation of hostilities.
“The ISSG members decided to take immediate steps to secure the full support of all parties to the conflict for a cessation of hostilities, and in furtherance of that have established an ISSG cease-fire task force, under the auspices of the UN, co-chaired by Russia and the United States, and including political and military officials,” the ISSG communiqué states.
Lavrov said he welcomed in particular that the new plan calls for more military coordination between the US-led coalition and Russia in Syria, a goal he said Russia has long sought but until now had been rebuffed. He acknowledged that Russia’s targeting of rebel groups beyond the Islamic State (or Daesh, as he calls the organization) and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra has been a long-running source of “emotional” arguments within the international Syria contact group. “As you probably know, during all these months we had quite an emotional discussion on who is … striking at [the] right targets, who is striking at wrong targets,” Lavrov said at the press conference with Kerry. “We have been proposing on many occasions to deal with this issue. … Now, having the agreement that the task force will determine areas taken by Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra. We have made a very important practical step forward in this direction.
“I would also like to underscore that, for the first time in our work, the document that we have adopted today stipulates the need to cooperate and coordinate not only political and humanitarian issues, but also the military dimension of the Syrian crisis,” Lavrov said. “This is a qualitatively new change in the approaches, and we welcome it. We have been calling for it.”
The Munich meeting was the first to bring Kerry and Lavrov together face-to-face since Syria peace talks collapsed Feb. 3 in Geneva amid Russian-backed Syrian regime gains on Aleppo. It is also the first time that Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir and Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif have been in the same room since Riyadh broke off diplomatic relations with Tehran following an attack on its embassy there on Jan. 2. “Many had wondered whether there [were] tensions in the region that would not allow some countries perhaps to be part of it,” de Mistura said at the press conference with Kerry and Lavrov. “We were able today to witness exactly the contrary. Saudi Arabia was there, Iran was there, everyone was there; and they were there determined to spend hours in order to discuss this.”
The next days will be a “good testing time,” de Mistura said. “Are the Syrian people going to see these outcomes? Then they will believe in future conferences, and they believe in their own future. And the ISSG has shown that they are ready to commit themselves.”
There were signs, however, that the Syrian opposition, as well as some of its regional backers, were prepared to improve its position should the attempt at a truce break down, an event that is not difficult to imagine.
Salman Shaikh, a former UN official attending the Munich talks, told Al-Monitor Feb. 11 that if it doesn't work, “The opposition has a Plan B.” They would expect their core supporters and friends to up their military support.
Kerry also signaled that the Syrian opposition might not be prepared to give up the fight for broader political change in Syria instead of reaching an accommodation with President Bashar al-Assad.
“What we got last night on this cessation of hostilities represents what the opposition wanted,” Kerry said at a meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi Feb. 12. “They wanted it called and defined as a cessation of hostilities. That is very much in line with their thinking and their hopes.”

Syria's Sharia courts
Mohammad Khalil//Al-Monitor/February 12/16
Five years into the revolution, different ideologies have begun to rule different areas of Syria. Some areas are controlled by the Syrian regime, others by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and some by extremist organizations. These organizations established Sharia courts to rule the areas under their control, and they run them based on their own interpretation of Islam to solve everyday problems in the absence of legitimate judicial bodies. Since the Syrian regime lost swathes of land — including large parts of Aleppo province in northern Syria at the end of 2013, as well as Idlib province in northwestern Syria in March 2015 — these areas have fallen under the control of rebel forces of different backgrounds and beliefs. Some factions, such as the FSA, aim to establish a civil state, while others, such as Jabhat al-Nusra, want an Islamic state.
In addition to losing all government services and living under the siege imposed by the regime, a major problem these areas faced was ensuring accountability and punishment. In Idlib, the city’s judicial system was paralyzed.
In a Skype interview, Ahmad Sulaiman, a former Idlib city employee who currently sells electrical equipment there, told Al-Monitor, “One of the main problems we face in the city of Idlib is the suspension of the judicial system by al-Nusra, which imposed the Sharia rule after the regime withdrew. Although it [the former judicial system] was never really effective because of the widespread corruption and favoritism, it did help in deterring violations and preserving security, to a point.”
In a recent telephone interview with Al-Monitor, Brussels-based Syrian civil rights activist Iyas Kadouni commented on the rise of Sharia courts: “The appearance of these courts is associated with the rise of Islamic groups holding sway in the areas outside the regime’s control. It is known that these groups reject positive laws and rely on Sharia law as the sole reference for the judicial power. This new status quo is natural but temporary, as it will not be able to meet the needs of the civil and democratic Syrian people.”
Kadouni added, “Sharia courts [will fail since] every faction has its own court that differs from the rest, because each one follows certain interpretations and references.”
These courts are reported to have been the scene of unfair, unlawful and retributional trials. “My son was tried in one of Jabhat al-Nusra’s courts in the city of Idlib for having fought alongside the Hazm Movement, which is a faction within the Free Syrian Army. Such an allegation is punishable by death, and had we not been able to extract him via some of our acquaintances, he would be dead now,” said Abboud Sulaiman, the cousin of Ahmad Sulaiman, by phone from Istanbul.
Turkey-based lawyer Anwar al-Ahmad, who spoke by phone with Al-Monitor, offered a legal perspective on the ability of these courts to deliver justice: “Sharia courts in Syria are far from being just, especially since many Sharia committees include members with no academic qualification, either in the field of Islamic jurisprudence or in civil law. In addition, the fatwas and sentences delivered by each court are based on the school ... the court adheres to.”
Ahmad added, “In most cases, the hudud [Sharia punishments] are applied, although they should be suspended in the cases of poverty and need, which is what the Syrian people are currently suffering from. For instance, if someone stole out of poverty, he or she must not be punished, but these [Sharia] courts punish these people by cutting off their hands."He added, “In the absence of the rule of law and with people resorting to the Islamic Sharia, justice is no longer served. Its application is now in the hands of armed individuals who act according to their own interpretation of the Sharia [and are] influenced by the school each adheres to, with no regard to the place and time, or to the state of poverty in which the majority of Syrians in rebel-controlled areas lives. And sometimes, using Sharia law is only intended to serve the interests of some fighters through exerting their influence.”
In January, Jabhat al-Nusra's Sharia court in Idlib executed a woman on charges of adultery, without executing the man who was involved or revealing his whereabouts. This points to a judicial mistake, as the other party involved in adultery was not present during the trial and the evidencial requirements in terms of eyewitnesses were not met. Most Syrians agree there is no place in their country for such actions, and many think this is only a phase the country is going through due to the increasing violence.

How fighters are filtering across the Syrian-Turkish border
Fehim Taştekin/Al-Monitor/February 12/16
Some 60,000 people trying to escape Syrian and Russian attacks in the province of Aleppo are amassed at Turkey's border, and concerns are rising that there are militants among them.According to information provided by the Turkish military and Kilis governorate, there are many foreign fighters among those trying to cross into Turkey. A well-placed security source at the border provided profiles of the refugees: civilians fleeing from the Aleppo-Azaz area, families of opposition fighters who used to live in the liberated areas, fighters supported by Turkey in the Bayirbucak and Aleppo-Azaz areas and foreign Islamic State (IS) militants.
Turkey, which had suspended its open-door policy, is now more flexible at the Hatay-Yayladag border area for those fleeing from the Bayirbucak region.
The Cilvegozu border crossing, the only official crossing between Idlib and Jisr al-Shughour, is only allowing the sick and wounded to enter Turkey.
At the Oncupinar border gate near Kilis, which normally provides access to rural Aleppo, crossing is strictly regulated. Further east, the official crossing at IS-controlled Jarablus is closed.
A relief worker told Al-Monitor, “Gates are closed, but fighters are using alternative crossings. It is impossible to seal all the border crossings used for illegal crossings. All strict measures taken block crossings to ordinary people, not the fighters, who know other routes.”
Because of strict border controls at Reyhanli and Kilis, there has been a surge of refugees at Hatay. Hundreds of people in their muddy clothes congregate at the bus terminal trying to go somewhere. They marched through fields to escape.
Two different sources from relief organizations explained to Al-Monitor the situation regarding the concentration of refugees at the Hatay bus terminal.
The people crossing through Yayladag to Hatay are not Turkmens, but Arab, they said. Most of the Turkmens were earlier settled at two refugee camps at Yayladag or had moved in with their relatives. Some 10,000-15,000 refugees living in the Yamadi camp on the Syrian side arrived mostly after the start of Russian air attacks in November.
But Arabs, who know the border is open to Turkmens, also want to use the Yayladag crossing.
"These people who hail from rural Aleppo walk across mountains and cross fields and streams to get to Turkey," one relief source said. "Every day 300-400 people arrive via this route. Those who don’t have refugee identification cards are stopped. Minibuses that transport refugees without cards are banned from operating, but people find a way to come at night — sometimes by paying two or three times the normal rate."
When they reach the bus terminal in the early morning, they take buses to other parts of Turkey, especially Istanbul, and some are transported by the state to camps in different parts of the country.
"Many adult men arrive at the terminal with women and children. Nobody knows if they are fighters because everyone claims to be a regular civilian," the source said.
Many wounded have been evacuated to hospitals in Hatay, Kilis and Gaziantep. None of them admit being fighters, despite their wounds.
Those who want to go to Kilis are accommodated at refugee camps set up between the Azaz and Bab al-Salameh border crossings in Syria because the border is blocked.
Local sources say the opposition forces that control the Syrian side of the Bab al-Hawa crossing at Reyhanli are cooperating with Turkish authorities to keep people away from the border. Refugee camps in Syria facing Reyhanli are supplied by the Turkish Red Crescent and other relief organizations.
BBC correspondent Selin Girit, who did research along the border at Kilis, shared her impressions of the situation with Al-Monitor.
“The Kilis Oncupinar border crossing is as quiet as it can get — the only action is by media crews. … Every now and then an aid truck belonging to UNHRC [United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees], the Turkish Red Crescent or one of the other humanitarian agencies crosses into Syria carrying food, water, blankets and hygienic supplies to the thousands waiting on the other side of the border," she said.
She added, "For the time being, only medical emergency cases are allowed to cross into Turkey. The wounded are being treated at the Kilis State Hospital. One man who lost an eye in the latest attacks targeting the north of Aleppo, with 15 other shrapnel marks on his back, told me he had left his wife and three kids behind and he wanted to go back to get them. 'I don’t understand why Turkey is keeping the borders shut,' he told me. 'There are dozens of airstrikes every day.'"
Suleyman Tapsiz, governor of Kilis province, told Al-Monitor that in the past three years Turkey had used relief aid to quietly build eight camps in villages within a mile of the border on the Syrian side. “They were already taking care of 50,000-60,000 refugees," Tapsiz said. "Now we have increased the capacities of these camps to accommodate the newcomers. We are in the process of building a ninth camp, which has already received 10,000 people."
He recently said the camps had received 30,000-35000 people in just 48 hours. He added, "We don’t have major problems. We can absorb the people on the Syrian side of the border. We meet their humanitarian needs. All nearby provinces are prepared for any eventuality.”
The policy of keeping the refugees on their side of the border is actually part of the government’s strategy to set up a safe zone on the Azaz-Marea line, according to Tapsiz.
There is a lot of talk about militants mingling with refugees, but the rumors are coming from people who don't really know much about it. A local source who did not want to be identified told Al-Monitor, “Of course there are fighters among the people at the border, but it is difficult to give a number. I have heard that there are some fighters who fled the frontline and showed up at the Oncupinar crossing. There are efforts by Syrian opposition groups to encourage them to return to the frontlines. Some fighters from the Bayirbucak area also fled to Turkey. We keep hearing strong condemnation of fighters who have fled the fighting.”
More telling information can be found in statements issued by the Turkish Armed Forces and the Kilis governor's office. Officials reported that numerous IS-affiliated people, both Turks and foreign nationals, have been captured trying to cross into Turkey illegally in groups of varying numbers, and sometimes traveling with children. The information suggests there is no recognizable pattern to such attempts. The most desperate travelers probably make deals with smugglers who specialize in human trafficking.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had bargained with EU officials Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk and agreed to keep the border under control in return for 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion). It has widely been reported that, according to alleged transcripts of a November meeting, Erdogan had unsuccessfully tried to double that amount by threatening, “We will open the Greek and Bulgarian borders and fill buses with refugees.”
But the looming question is what Turkey will do with all those fighters who will flee across the border when the Syrian army recovers the area. This is certainly a serious worry — and not just for Turkey.