LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 11/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or what you will drink
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 06/25-34: "‘Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or what you will drink, or about your body, what you will wear. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothing? Look at the birds of the air; they neither sow nor reap nor gather into barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not of more value than they? And can any of you by worrying add a single hour to your span of life? And why do you worry about clothing? Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow; they neither toil nor spin, yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one of these. But if God so clothes the grass of the field, which is alive today and tomorrow is thrown into the oven, will he not much more clothe you you of little faith? Therefore do not worry, saying, "What will we eat?" or "What will we drink?" or "What will we wear?" For it is the Gentiles who strive for all these things; and indeed your heavenly Father knows that you need all these things. But strive first for the kingdom of God and his righteousness, and all these things will be given to you as well. ‘So do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will bring worries of its own. Today’s trouble is enough for today."

Of course, there is great gain in godliness combined with contentment
First Letter to Timothy 06/06-12 : "Of course, there is great gain in godliness combined with contentment; for we brought nothing into the world, so that we can take nothing out of it; but if we have food and clothing, we will be content with these. But those who want to be rich fall into temptation and are trapped by many senseless and harmful desires that plunge people into ruin and destruction. For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil, and in their eagerness to be rich some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pains. But as for you, man of God, shun all this; pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, endurance, gentleness. Fight the good fight of the faith; take hold of the eternal life, to which you were called and for which you made the good confession in the presence of many witnesses."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 11/16
March 14 group malaise reflects Lebanon's broad decline/Michael Young/The National/February 10/16
The Syrian regime has never negotiated/Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
Ministers for happiness, tolerance in the UAE/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
Everyone to blame for failure of Syria diplomacy/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
World peace versus Saudi national security/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
Syria: Checkered Past, Uncertain Future/Amir Taheri/Gatestone Institute/February 10, 2016
Will he, won't he? Turks ponder whether Erdogan will invade Syria/Cengiz Çandar/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
Mystery surrounds killing of Italian scholar in Egypt/Shahira Amin/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
Airbus deal takeoff irks Iranian hard-liners/Rohollah Faghihi/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
Turkey gives mixed signals on Syria/Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
Relative Of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad Curses Him In Open Letter: You Are A Traitor; May Allah Kill You/MEMRI/February 10/16/

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 11/16
The Syrian regime has never negotiated
HRW: Russia and Syria carry out daily cluster bomb attacks
Explosives, suicide belts found on suspects at Turkey-Syria border
Gunmen open fire on Syria aid convoy, no casualties reported
Syrian opposition talks ‘balance of power on ground’
Turkey letting in Syrian refugees in ‘controlled fashion’
Turkish soldier killed in clashes with PKK rebels
Erdogan Accuses U.S. of Creating 'Pool of Blood' with Policy on Syria Kurds
'500 Dead' in Syria Regime's Aleppo Assault
Will Iraq’s PM dissolve anti-ISIS volunteer forces?
Veteran French Politician Fabius Bows out
Morocco stands by Saudi against threats to Gulf peace
Egypt tells Libya to lead anti-ISIS effort
Grandson of Iran’s Khomeini fails election appeal
Israel extends ex-PM Olmert’s prison sentence
Iran to upgrade and get Russian S-300 missiles
Israel locks down Palestinian village after settler stabbed
Study says Mosul dam at ‘higher risk’ of failure
Trump, Sanders Win Big in New Hampshire
Trump: Celebrity Billionaire, Next U.S. President?

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 11/16
March 14 group malaise reflects Lebanon's broad decline
Geagea Urges International Community to Intervene to 'Halt Massacres in Syria'
Reports: Lunch Hosted by Rahme Launches Bid to Mend Aoun-Franjieh Ties
Mustaqbal: Hizbullah, FPM Seeking Autocracy, March 14 to Continue despite Differences
#KissForFaour: Minister's Swine Flu Remarks Spark Social Media Humor
Residents Protest to UNIFIL after Israeli Troops Cross Border, Nab Goats
Cabinet Approves Decrees Linked to Civil Defense Directorate
Harb: Hizbullah and Aoun are Doing Each Other a Favor
Beirut Police Arrest Robbery Suspects
Democratic Gathering Warns against Lebanon's Slide to 'Totalitarianism'
Abou Faour Denies Link between Swine Flu and Trash

Links From Jihad Watch Site for February 11/16
U.S. official: Mosul will “certainly” not be retaken from the Islamic State this year.
Robert Spencer in FP: Syrian Archbishop to West: “Why Are Your Bishops Silent?”.
Australian convert to Islam: “I want to do an Islamic Bonnie and Clyde on the kaffir”.
Uganda: Imam arrested in murder of convert from Islam to Christianity.
FBI unable to crack San Bernardino killers’ cell phone.
UK: Three government buildings now ruled by Sharia, alcohol banned.
Indonesia: Muslim cleric who set up jihad terror training camp says, “What I did was right according to Islam”.
“Islamic State commander” found living as refugee in rural German village.
Obama at Baltimore mosque quoted Muhammad from speech endorsing caliphate and beheading.
Video: Muslim NHL player threatens to slit the throat of opposing player.
NBC makes a point of identifying killer of Robert Kennedy as “Christian”.
US Catholic Bishops launch National Catholic-Muslim Dialogue, partnering with groups linked to Hamas and MB.
Hugh Fitzgerald: Israel and the Reconquista of Language.
Robert Spencer in PJ Media: The Washington Post Tells Us ISIS Is Losing, Again.

March 14 group malaise reflects Lebanon's broad decline
Michael Young/The National/February 10/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/02/10/michael-young-march-14-group-malaise-reflects-lebanons-broad-decline/
As the February 14 anniversary of Rafiq Hariri’s assassination looms in Lebanon, the political coalition that emerged after the former prime minister’s killing in 2005, the March 14 coalition, today exists only in name.
The principal reason is that two of the leading figures in March 14, Saad Hariri, son of Rafik and a former prime minister himself, and Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces party, are divided over who to back as presidential candidate.
Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014, largely because of political disagreements over who would succeed Michel Sleiman. The impasse is complete today.
In Lebanon, parliament elects the president, and on Monday parliamentarians met for the 85th time to vote, but there was no quorum. The reason is that former prime minister Michel Aoun, along with Hizbollah and its allies, have boycotted all sessions so as to build up pressure for Mr Aoun to be elected.
However, there is hypocrisy in Hizbollah’s position. In January, to break the stalemate, Mr Geagea endorsed Mr Aoun, his long-time political rival. The calculation was that this would put Hizbollah on the spot, oblige the party to rally its allies behind Mr Aoun, and break the deadlock that has undermined the institution of the presidency, which, by custom, goes to a Maronite Christian. Mr Geagea, like Mr Aoun, is a Maronite.
Yet, since then, Hizbollah has done nothing to push its allies to vote for Mr Aoun, which would allow him to win the election. This has only prolonged the stalemate, Hizbollah’s real goal.
Mr Geagea’s decision was taken after Mr Hariri, also to fill the void, had backed another Maronite, Sleiman Franjieh, for the presidency. This came as a shock to Mr Geagea. Not only was Mr Geagea at the time the official candidate of March 14, but Mr Franjieh is an old political adversary and a friend of Bashar Al Assad. Not surprisingly Mr Geagea felt betrayed, which is when he decided to support Mr Aoun.
All these moves, done without consultations, were devastating to March 14. Yet the political alliance had been suffering for years. The disagreement between Mr Hariri and Mr Geagea was only the latest manifestation of a more profound problem.
March 14 coalesced around two basic principles in 2005: opposition to a return of Syrian dominance over Lebanon after the Syrian military withdrawal that year; and opposition to Hizbollah’s efforts to dominate the Lebanese political system, whether through violence or the perpetuation of gridlock.
The first major blow to March 14 came in 2009, when a leading figure in the coalition, Walid Jumblatt, announced he was leaving for the political centre. At the time Mr Jumblatt sensed, correctly, that Saudi Arabia, Mr Hariri’s patron, was pushing him to reconcile with Mr Al Assad. To avoid his own isolation Mr Jumblatt became an independent and opened up to Syria.
Approximately a year later Mr Jumblatt’s predictions came true. Mr Al Assad, accompanied by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, travelled to Beirut and was greeted by Mr Hariri, who had once accused him of being his father’s assassination. This was another setback for March 14.
The coalition would revive itself in 2011, after Mr Hariri, then prime minister, was ousted by Hizbollah and Mr Aoun when they brought down his government. The uprising in Syria further united March 14, as it rallied Mr Al Assad’s foes. Yet the period was also marked by Hariri-Geagea tensions – over a controversial election law proposal and the fact that Mr Hariri left Lebanon, hindering all political coordination.

Geagea Urges International Community to Intervene to 'Halt Massacres in Syria'
Naharnet/February 10/16/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea held on Wednesday the international community responsible for the prolongation of the war in Syria, labeling the developments in the country as a “major humanitarian tragedy.”He urged via Twitter the international community to “intervene quickly in Syria to halt the massacres taking place there.”The intervention should also pave the way “for the overthrow of the regime of President Bashar Assad and the establishment of a free democracy in Syria.”“The community will otherwise be faced with a new hundred years war in Syria and neighboring regions that may take various forms,” Geagea tweeted. Furthermore, he noted that the war in Syria has developed into an Iranian-Russian confrontation “with some terrorist groups and several other groups that have revolted against the regime.”The Assad regime has fallen because those fighting in Syria are Iran and Russia, he added. Pro-regime forces have made a series of gains this month in Aleppo province, severing rebel supply lines and prompting tens of thousands to flee towards the Turkish border. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced on Wednesday that more than 500 people have been killed since the major Russian-backed regime offensive in Aleppo began.

Reports: Lunch Hosted by Rahme Launches Bid to Mend Aoun-Franjieh Ties
Naharnet/February 10/16/MP Emile Rahme gathered Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Frajieh's son and a son-in-law of Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun over lunch on Wednesday in a bid to mend ties between the two presidential candidates, media reports said. The lunch banquet at downtown Beirut's Karam Restaurant brought together Aoun's son-in-law Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz and Franjeh's son Tony, al-Jadeed TV reported. The gathering was also attended by General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, former minister Youssef Saade of al-Marada and Rahme's son, al-Jadeed said. Rahme is known for his good ties with both Aoun and Franjieh. According to information obtained by the TV network, the lunch banquet was the beginning of "efforts by the parties who attended it to bring together General Michel Aoun and MP Suleiman Franjieh in a bid to reach a solution to the presidential crisis." Relations between the two Christian leaders grew cold in the past two years due to conflicting viewpoints on several files and were further strained a few months ago after Franjieh met ex-PM Saad Hariri in Paris and emerged as a leading presidential candidate.The two former allies have both refused to withdraw from the presidential race and officials from their movements have traded barbs in recent weeks.

Mustaqbal: Hizbullah, FPM Seeking Autocracy, March 14 to Continue despite Differences
Naharnet/February 10/16/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc on Wednesday accused Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement of seeking to impose an “autocratic political system” on the country through their boycott of parliamentary sessions aimed at electing a new president. In a statement issued after its weekly meeting, the bloc charged that the two parties want to “appoint” a president and “usurp the will of the Lebanese who are determined to elect a new president in line with their democratic system.”The two parties have boycotted 34 out of 35 electoral sessions, insisting that the political blocs must agree on a candidate before heading to parliament, and last month Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah declared that his party would only attend an electoral session aimed at electing FPM founder MP Michel Aoun as president. Nasrallah's statement came in the wake of a proposal by al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the country's top Christian post. Hizbullah, the FPM and some of their allies argue that Aoun is more eligible to become president given the size of his parliamentary bloc and his influence in the Christian political arena. “Al-Mustaqbal bloc and the majority of the Lebanese people strongly and firmly reject Hizbullah and the FPM's attempt to impose unconstitutional practices whose result would be the rise of an autocratic political system resembling the remaining totalitarian systems in the world,” the bloc added. Turning to the relations among the March 14 forces, which were strained after Hariri's proposal, Mustaqbal emphasized its commitment to “the foundations and values on which the glorious March 14 uprising was built.” The bloc “will continue to defend these foundations and values, despite the short-lived and temporary differences among some of these (March 14) forces,” it pledged. “The Lebanese people who rejected and toppled the old tutelage will not tolerate any new tutelage, regardless of its new shape or form,” the bloc stressed.

#KissForFaour: Minister's Swine Flu Remarks Spark Social Media Humor
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 10/16/Humorous remarks by Health Minister Wael Abou Faour about abstention from kissing as a precaution against swine flu have triggered a sarcastic campaign on social networking websites. "The solution would be to decrease kissing, unless extremely necessary," Abu Faour said jokingly to journalists during a press conference on Wednesday. His comments sparked a new hashtag on Twitter -- #KissForFaour -- that saw Lebanese users post pictures of themselves kissing their partners, children, or even pets. Other social media users resorted to posting jokes as some netizens referred to Abou Faour's remarks to slam a ruling class and authorities largely seen as corrupt and negligent towards citizens' welfare. Swine flu has killed four people in Lebanon since the beginning of the winter season in November, Abou Faor said on Wednesday.
He said the four fatal cases were a child aged three, a 31-year-old woman, a 36-year-old pregnant woman, and a 58-year-old man. He also said reported cases had increased by 20 percent but that the number of deaths was comparable with the previous winter season, in which five people died of H1N1. Abou Faour also dismissed fears that the recent swine flu cases might be linked to the country's ongoing garbage disposal crisis, which erupted in July 2015. A regional outbreak of swine flu in 2009 sparked warnings from governments and the World Health Organization. By August 2010, when the WHO lifted its warning, the virus had killed 18,500 people in 214 countries.

Residents Protest to UNIFIL after Israeli Troops Cross Border, Nab Goats
Naharnet/February 10/16/An Israeli force crossed the Lebanese border on Wednesday and seized a goat herd belonging to a Lebanese citizen, sparking a protest by villagers, Lebanon's National News Agency reported. “A force from the enemy's army violated the border and nabbed a flock of goats belonging to the citizen Wissam Abdul Al,” NNA said. The development prompted residents from the southern border towns of Kfarshouba and Hilta to stage a sit-in outside the post of the Indian U.N. peacekeeping force in the Bustra Farm to press UNIFIL to seek the return of the herd, the agency added. Earlier, NNA had reported that the Israelis abducted the flock to the occupied Shebaa Farms after the goats crossed the border of the occupied region. Such incidents are frequent in that border area and the Israeli army sometimes kidnaps the shepherds themselves and frees them after interrogation. Tensions have recently surged along the Lebanese-Israeli border, especially in Shebaa, after Hizbullah attacked an Israeli patrol in retaliation to Israel's December assassination in Syria of its top operative Samir al-Quntar.

Cabinet Approves Decrees Linked to Civil Defense Directorate
Naharnet/February 10/16/The cabinet adopted on Wednesday decrees on determining the conditions for the appointments of the head and members of the Civil Defense Directorate.The decrees will pave the way for the Interior Minister to hold an exam that will lead to the potential employment of the workers, explained Information Minister Ramzi Jreij after the cabinet meeting that was held at the Grand Serail. The employment of volunteers will be addressed during later sessions, said Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3). Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil presented at the cabinet a detailed report on the financial situation in Lebanon, while emphasizing the need for the adoption of a state budget, He warned of the rise in expenditures and its threat to the public deficit. “Ministers therefore stressed the need to approve a budget, adopt sound spending, and combat corruption,” said Jreij. A new cabinet meeting will be held on Thursday. The government did not however tackle the contentious issue of hiking taxes on gasoline. Now that twenty liters of gasoline is selling at about LL20,000 as a result of a global slide in oil prices, some officials are mulling to slap a new tax, around LL5,000, to fund the employment of the Civil Defense volunteers. The $20 million needed to make the Civil Defense volunteers full-timers does not require a tax hike, ministers said according to media reports.

Harb: Hizbullah and Aoun are Doing Each Other a Favor
Naharnet/February 10/16/Telecommunications Minister Butros Harb stated on Wednesday that Hizbullah and its ally the Change and Reform bloc head MP Michel Aoun are doing each other mutual favors with regard to the presidency and the party's weapons. “Lebanon is in a stage of paying bills between Aoun and Hizbullah. The first insists to cover the illegal weapons of Hizbullah in return for the latter's continued backing for Aoun to help him make it to the presidential post,” said Harb via Twitter. Aoun had hinted recently that Hizbullah's weapons are indispensable and that they cannot be restricted to the Lebanese authorities taking into consideration the Israeli incursions on Lebanese territory. Hizbullah has reiterated more than once that it continues to support its March 8 ally Aoun for the top state post which has been vacant for over 20 months today. Marada movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh, of March 8, has also been nominated recently by al-Mustaqbal movement chief Saad Hariri. On the Maarab rapprochement that saw the nomination of Aoun by his long-time rival Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geaega, Harb asked: “What has been left of the memorandum of principles between the FPM and the LF after Aoun's pledge to keep Hizbullah's weapons for life?”Geagea's nomination of Aoun was not applauded by March 14, as observers saw the step as a reaction to Hariri's nomination of Franjieh.

Beirut Police Arrest Robbery Suspects
Naharnet/February 10/16/The Internal Security Forces said on Wednesday it has arrested three Lebanese men on suspicion of robbery and impersonating police officers. An ISF communique said a patrol arrested R.S., 44, and 30-year-old Aa. K. in the Beirut neighborhood of Jnah on Sunday for robbing a Syrian after impersonating police officers. Both of them are also suspected of involvement in murder, robbery and drug smuggling, said police. The communique asked people who fell victim to their acts to file a complaint at the Ramlet al-Baida police station. In another communique, police announced the arrest of R.Aa, a 24-year-old Lebanese in the Beirut district of Mar Elias after he stole a mobile phone from a minor along with an accomplice. The arrested man is a drug addict, said the ISF. It added that police are looking for his accomplice.

Democratic Gathering Warns against Lebanon's Slide to 'Totalitarianism'
Naharnet/February 10/16/Democratic Gathering bloc MP Marwan Hamadeh has rejected to turn Lebanon into a dictatorship through the appointment of a president rather than his election. Hamadeh told the Kuwaiti daily al-Seyassah on Wednesday that “Lebanon, which has been a slogan for democracy in the Orient, should not slide into totalitarianism where a president is appointed without elections.” “We will congratulate the president whoever he is if he was elected. But the presidency is not picked up,” the lawmaker said in reference to remarks that Hizbullah official Hussein Khalil has made. A president only comes through “voting via democratic institutions,” he said. The Democratic Gathering accuses Hizbullah, backed by Iran, for thwarting the presidential elections. Baabda Palace has been vacant since May 2014 when the term of President Michel Suleiman ended. Lack of quorum caused by the boycott of Hizbullah, the Change and Reform bloc and other MPs has stopped parliament from electing a head of state.

Abou Faour Denies Link between Swine Flu and Trash
Naharnet/February 10/16/Health Minister Wael Abou Faour denied on Wednesday a link between Lebanon's trash crisis and the rise of H1N1 cases, saying at least four people died of swine flu this year. “Scientifically speaking, there is no direct or indirect link between the garbage and swine flu,” Abou Faour said during a press conference. The trash crisis erupted in July last year when the country's main landfill in Naameh was closed. Since then, trash has piled up on the streets. Municipalities that are collecting the garbage are dumping the waste under bridges and valleys, raising concern over an environmental and health disaster. Some are also resorting to burning rubbish, causing toxic fumes. “Based on the available data, there has been a 20 percent rise in the hospitalization of people infected with the H1N1 virus,” said Abou Faour. “The rise is linked to the improvement in reporting cases and the worldwide increase in swine flu infections,” he said. “Last year, five people died from H1N1. This year there are four confirmed and two unconfirmed deaths from the virus,” he added. Abou Faour urged the Lebanese not to worry about the virus, saying no epidemic is in sight. The flu vaccines are available in the market, he said, advising the people to take precautionary measures near infected people. H1N1 is a respiratory disease that is contracted through contact between humans and pigs. It is transmitted between people through inhalation, but not from eating pork-related products, according to health experts. A major H1N1 outbreak sparked a World Health Organization pandemic alert in June 2009, after the virus emerged from Mexico and the United States. The epidemic killed around 18,500 people in 214 countries. The alert was lifted in August 2010.

The Syrian regime has never negotiated
Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
It was normal to suspend the Syria talks in Geneva, considering it was more of a dialogue of the deaf. There is no point meeting to tackle the crisis amid the absence of agreement among influential powers, particularly Washington and Moscow, for a transitional phase that transfers power from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime. All solutions that deviate from a transitional phase are a waste of time, as they overlook the fact that the Syrian regime has collapsed, and there are no political or military solutions that can revive it. Do Russia and Iran understand that?
It is impossible to negotiate with the regime because it does not believe in offering concessions. It is impossible to negotiate with the regime because it does not believe in offering concessions. When it is strong, even if its source of power is outside forces - as is the case now - it believes concessions signify weakness. When it is weak, it does not make concessions due to its need to appear strong. The regime committed a massacre in Hama 34 years ago, killing thousands of people. It used the Muslim Brotherhood’s crimes as an excuse. Some of these crimes were true, but the regime attacked the entire city and destroyed entire neighborhoods. It wanted Hama to be an example to any Syrian who dared raise his or her head. As time passed, the world accepted the massacre. Before that, in 1976, Syrian troops and apparatuses entered Lebanon in order to control the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and weaken the Christian presence in the small country. No Lebanese city or town was spared from the injustice of the Syrian regime, which first targeted Christian border towns such as Al-Qaa and Al-Ayshya, then Zahle and Beirut’s Ashrafieh. It also did not spare the Sunni city of Tripoli. The regime only negotiates to buy time. It never wished to regain the Golan Heights. Its negotiations were aimed at maintaining the “no war, no peace” policy with Israel, which served both parties. Even during the two times when the regime surrendered, no negotiations were held. In 1999, it expelled Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan when Turkey threatened to invade Syria. Before that, the regime was adamant that it was not hosting him, despite evidence provided by Ankara in 1998 such as the address of the apartment where he stayed in Damascus, his phone numbers, and a list of people who had spoken with him. In the second surrender, the regime pulled its troops out of Lebanon amid protests against it following the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Lebanese had no doubt that the regime was behind the crime.
Failure in Geneva
Based on experiences from the recent past, it is unlikely that anything will be achieved in Geneva. U.N. special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has become a mere manager of the crisis. His incapability is not only because he knows nothing about Syria, its people or the regime, but also because Russia and Iran do not want a solution. Both countries are willing to provide the regime with cover to annihilate and displace the Syrian people. There is no Russian or Iranian war against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), only against the Syrian people and the moderate opposition in an attempt to bolster the regime so the opposition accepts a national unity government. However, the fact is that most Syrians reject the regime.The only positive from Geneva is that the opposition did not boycott the talks. On the contrary, it reiterated its demand for a plan for the regime’s departure. The U.S. surrender to Russia over Syria will not foster progress, but can the status quo continue indefinitely? The Americans and Russians have no desire to end the crisis. All that can be said of the Geneva talks, which are set to last for six months, is that they aim to end Syria itself.

HRW: Russia and Syria carry out daily cluster bomb attacks
News Agencies/February 10/16/The Human Rights Watch report, released Monday, said that cluster munitions, which are widely banned, have been used in at least 14 attacks across five provinces since Jan. 26. The attacks killed at least 37 civilians, including six women and nine children, and wounded dozens, HRW said. Cluster bombs open in flight and scatter dozens of explosive munitions over wide areas. Some 98 States are party to a convention banning their use but several countries — including Syria and Russia, as well as the U.S., China and Israel — have not signed onto the ban.

Explosives, suicide belts found on suspects at Turkey-Syria border
AFP, Ankara Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Turkish soldiers have seized explosives and four suicide vests in the baggage of a group of suspects stopped at the border with Syria, the Turkish army said on Wednesday. “Between 12 and 15 kilos of explosives and four belts that could be used for suicide attacks were found in two bags,” the army said in a statement. A group of 34 people - four men, 10 women and 20 children - were stopped in Turkey's southeastern border town of Karkamis, the statement said. The army did not refer to any terror group in its statement, but Karkamis lies across the border from the Syrian town of Jerabalus, which is currently controlled by the Islamic State group. The seizure comes as around 30,000 Syrians are huddled on the border with Turkey at Oncupinar, around 100 km west of Karkamis, after fleeing a major government offensive, backed by Russian air power, in Aleppo.

Gunmen open fire on Syria aid convoy, no casualties reported
Associated Press, Beirut Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Syria’s state news agency SANA says opposition gunmen have opened fire on aid vehicles in the besieged rebel-held town of Madaya, near the capital Damascus, but no casualties were reported.A SARQ official said on Wednesday that the convoy, which included vehicles from the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, was evacuating sick people from Madaya when it came under fire by unknown gunmen.The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the operation had been completed and people successfully evacuated. Madaya, which has been besieged by government and allied militiamen for months, gained international attention after harrowing pictures emerged showing emaciated children and starving residents. SANA said the shooting occurred late Tuesday night delaying operations for several hours.

Syrian opposition talks ‘balance of power on ground’
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 10 February 2016/The Saudi-backed Syrian opposition on Wednesday said it “prioritized” a political solution for the bloody conflict marring the country but also said “there needs to be a balance of power on ground” after President Bashar al-Assad’s regime made advances with Russian and Iranian support, one of its top officials said. Riyad Hijab, who was a former Syrian prime minister and who now works as coordinator for High Negotiations Committee, said Russia’s air raids is “guaranteeing Assad to stay in power,” during a press conference in London, UK. He added: “We reject giving Assad and clique any immunity from crimes they committed,” describing Assad regime’s practices as being boon to radical militants. Before Hijab’s statement, the opposition said on Wednesday that it will participate in peace talks in Geneva scheduled on Feb. 25, Al Arabiya News Channel reported. The continued bombardment of rebel-held towns was among the reasons given by the Syrian opposition for not cooperating with the U.N. peace talks early this month. The opposition also asked Washington to pressure Moscow to halt its airstrikes in Syria after incidents of high number of casualties. A monitor said on Wednesday that more than 500 people, including dozens of civilians, have been killed since a major Russian-backed regime offensive in Syria’s Aleppo province began this month.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of sources for its figures, said the toll of 506 included 23 children killed in Russian air strikes on Aleppo city and its surroundings since the operation was launched on February 1. The Syrian opposition request comes after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that the Russian air raids were killing women and children. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday Russia had proposed a “concrete” plan to resolve the Syria crisis to the United States, RIA news agency reported.

Turkey letting in Syrian refugees in ‘controlled fashion’
Reuters Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Turkey is admitting Syrian refugees in a “controlled manner” and has let in thousands fleeing Russian air strikes, its foreign minister said on Tuesday, warning the numbers of new migrants could reach a million if the attacks continue. An assault by Russian-backed Syrian government forces around the city of Aleppo has sent more than 30,000 people fleeing to the Turkish border gate of Oncupinar in the past few days, and officials say tens of thousands more could be on the move. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Turkey had so far let in 10,000 people from the latest wave, but it was not immediately clear where on the border he was referring to. Oncupinar has remained closed in recent days to all but the most seriously wounded, some of them crossing by foot or brought in by ambulance, according to Reuters witnesses. The United Nations and European Union have urged it to open the crossing. “Recently more than 50,000 people came to the border with Turkey due to Russia’s air attacks. We took in 10,000 of these migrants and we are building some camps at the other side of the border for some,” Cavusoglu said during a visit to Budapest. “We are allowing in those who want to come, in a controlled fashion,” he told a news conference with his Hungarian counterpart.

Turkish soldier killed in clashes with PKK rebels
AFP, Istanbul Wednesday, 10 February 2016/One Turkish soldier was killed and another wounded in clashes with Kurdish rebels trying to cross the border from Syria into southeast Turkey, the military said Wednesday. Turkish security forces opened fire Tuesday on seven militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the Cizre district of Sirnak province as they were entering Turkey from Syria, the army said in a statement. Two soldiers were heavily wounded in the ensuing clashes and one of them later died in hospital, it added.Cizre has been under a controversial curfew for six weeks as the army pursues a relentless campaign against rebels of the PKK which activists claim has cost dozens of civilian lives. The town lies just across the border from an area in northern Syria that is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Ankara considers to be the affiliate of the outlawed PKK. The border incident came as Turkey's foreign ministry on Tuesday summoned the U.S. ambassador to Ankara John Bass after a U.S. State Department spokesman angered Ankara by saying that Washington did not consider the PYD as a terrorist organization. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had on Sunday urged Washington to choose between Turkey and the "terrorist" Syrian Kurds. The U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq has worked closely with the YPG, the military wing of the PYD, since it launched air strikes in Syria in September 2014.Turkey fears the creation of an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria -- similar to the Kurdish region in northern Iraq -- would spur the separatist ambitions of Turkey’s own Kurds.

Erdogan Accuses U.S. of Creating 'Pool of Blood' with Policy on Syria Kurds
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/16/Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday accused the United States of creating a "pool of blood" in the region by failing to recognize the main Syrian Kurdish organisations as terror groups. "Hey America... As you have never recognize them (as terror groups) the region has turned into a pool of blood," Erdogan said in a lacerating attack on U.S. policy, referring to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its People's Protection Units (YPG) militia. His remarks escalated a growing row between Washington and key NATO member Turkey over the role of Kurdish fighters in the struggle against jihadists in Syria. Turkey on Tuesday summoned the U.S. envoy to Ankara in protest after the U.S. State Department spokesman said that Washington did not recognize the PYD as a terror group and would continue to support its operations in Syria. "Hey America! How many times have we had to tell you?" Erdogan said in his fiery address. "Are you together with us or are you with the PYD and YPG terror groups?" Erdogan launched the attack in one of his regular speeches at the presidential palace to loyal local municipal leaders known as muhtars that have become known as the forum for his most vehemently anti-Western comments. Turkey says that the Syrian Kurdish groups are simply a branch of the rebel Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is recognized as a terror group by the United States, and has carried out a string of deadly attacks in Turkey in the last months."Is there a difference between the PKK and the PYD? Is there a difference with the YPG?" asked Erdogan. "We have written proof! We tell the Americans 'it's a terror group'. But the Americans stand up and say 'no we don't see them as terror groups'."

'500 Dead' in Syria Regime's Aleppo Assault
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/16/A Russian-backed regime onslaught in northern Syria was reported Wednesday to have killed more than 500 people this month, as Turkey faced mounting pressure to open its border to people fleeing the violence. Tens of thousands of Syrians were still stranded Wednesday at the frontier north of the second city of Aleppo, which remained closed despite an appeal by the United Nations to let civilians pass. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 506 people had died since the regime launched a major offensive against rebels in Aleppo province on February 1. They include 23 children who were killed in Russian air strikes, according to the British-based monitor, which relies on a network of sources on the ground. More than 260,000 people have been killed and half the population displaced since the conflict began in 2011 with anti-regime protests. Turkey, already hosting 2.7 million Syrian refugees, has so far refused to let a new wave into the country, instead providing humanitarian assistance over the border in Syria. Only wounded people are being allowed through the Oncupinar border crossing, where around 30,000 displaced people are massed on the Syrian side. Many are sleeping in tents or the open, with emergency camps already full. A Turkish official said that 10 injured Syrians were taken to hospital in the border town of Kilis after bombing in the Syrian town of Azaz overnight. The security threat posed by the Syria war was expected to be on the agenda of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels starting Wednesday, as well as Turkey's request for help to deal with the migration crisis and the alliance's beefed up response to a more assertive Russia. Those who have fled the offensive tell of scenes of terror and suffering.
"Children are dying under bombs and from hunger and cold. They are living on the roads. They don't have any place to stay," said Abdul Karim Bahloul, who crossed into Turkey on Wednesday morning. Ankara is on alert for fighters infiltrating its territory, after a series of attacks on its soil that the government blamed on the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group. The Turkish security forces said on Wednesday they had seized explosives and four suicide vests in the baggage of a group of suspects stopped at the border in the southeastern town of Karkamis. Karkamis faces the IS-controlled Syrian town of Jarabulus about 100 kilometers (60 miles) northeast of the Oncupinar crossing. Fighting on Wednesday raged around Tamura, north of Aleppo city, with intense Russian air raids on several nearby villages, the Observatory said. Pro-regime forces have made a series of gains this month in Aleppo province, severing rebel supply lines. The U.N. has warned 300,000 people in eastern Aleppo city could be cut off from humanitarian aid if government forces encircle the area, a tactic used by the regime to devastating effect against other former rebel bastions. Rebels face a potential tipping point in the war following a string of victories by regime forces backed by Russian warplanes and fighters from Iran -- another key ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman said that 274 rebels and foreign jihadists, 143 pro-regime fighters, and 89 civilians had been killed in the Aleppo offensive since February 1. Fourteen Iranian fighters and at least three fighters from Lebanon's Hizbullah had died fighting alongside Assad's forces, he said. The U.N. has called for Russia to end its air strikes ahead of fresh peace efforts including a 17-nation meeting Thursday in Munich aimed at getting the process back on track. Last week, U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura suspended Syria peace talks amid opposition protests about the bombing, and the Munich meeting aims to pressure the sides to return to the table. "The highest need and the best humanitarian response is for the bombing to stop," U.N. aid chief Stephen O'Brien said Tuesday. On Tuesday night, an aid convoy entering the besieged town of Madaya near Damascus to evacuate sick people came under fire from unknown assailants, but there were no injuries, the International Committee of the Red Cross said.

Will Iraq’s PM dissolve anti-ISIS volunteer forces?
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Reports of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi dissolving the mainly Shiite Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) have recently emerged amid differences between the premier and the volunteer forces. The reports followed a deadlock between Abadi and Iran-backed PMU leaders who were said that they were not complying with his orders. The PMU was formed from Shiite armed groups and volunteers after a fatwa (an Islamic religious edict) by the influential spiritual leader of Iraq’s Shiite majority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, calling Iraqis to fight ISIS. The reports say Abadi wants to include the PMU in the Iraqi army especially after his failure to include more Sunni fighters to the units.

Veteran French Politician Fabius Bows out
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/16/Veteran French politician Laurent Fabius bowed out of government Wednesday after a career spanning more than three decades that saw an early string of scandals but ended with his shepherding a complex climate deal as foreign minister. Fabius holds the distinction of being France's youngest ever prime minister, a post he took up at 37, and has remained a Socialist heavyweight, ending his career in the ornate hallways of the Quai d'Orsay as his country's top diplomat. Amiable and sometimes witty in person, the cerebral 69-year-old also has a reputation for being aloof. Nevertheless, his experience made him a popular foreign minister with the French people, who largely saw him as a fitting representative abroad. On Wednesday, President Francois Hollande nominated Fabius to head France's prestigious Constitutional Court, a post the outgoing foreign minister told reporters he would take up in March "if things go as planned".Segolene Royal, the high-profile environment minister and ex-partner of President Francois Hollande, is among the rumored successors, but former prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is also believed to be in the frame. As foreign minister since 2012, Fabius helped to negotiate the Iran nuclear deal, as well as dealing with the thorny dossiers of the Syria conflict, and the growing threat of jihadism in western Africa, where French troops are deployed. Journalists became accustomed to his pithy expressions. Whether discussing the Islamic State group or Nigeria's Boko Haram, he would often repeat: "They are fake believers, but true criminals." However, it is Fabius's final big project that is likely to shape his legacy: sealing a historic deal to save mankind from global warning. As host of the global climate talks at the end of 2015, he presided over 13 days of grueling talks to get 195 nations to agree on transforming the energy system underlying the world economy. While fending off rumors of ill health -- and a persistent suggestion that he suffered from Parkinson's -- Fabius threw himself into the complex world of climate science and politics for two years preceding the talks. He made 12 trips to China, four each to India and Saudi Arabia, and also went to Brazil and South Africa to get them on board and listen to their concerns.Fabius, who comes from a long line of art merchants, is independently wealthy, and his status as the richest of the Socialist ministers has been seen as off-putting to the rank and file. Haughty, highly pedigreed and clad in classic suits -- Hermes, according to one local report -- he has often been labeled a member of the "gauche caviar", the French term for a champagne Socialist. Fabius followed the well-worn path to political power in France: graduating from the elite Ecole Normale Superieure and attending the National School of Public Administration (ENA). A political wunderkind, he became a lawmaker aged 32. Then-president Francois Mitterrand appointed him as budget minister three years later and then sent him to the ministry of industry and research. In 1984, he became France's youngest-ever prime minister. However, Fabius would quickly face a major scandal, when French agents were caught after the sinking of the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior in New Zealand as it was on its way to protest against a French nuclear test. After initial government denials, Fabius later told journalists the French secret service was indeed behind the bombing, adding: "The truth of this affair is cruel."However the biggest stain on his career was a scandal in the late 1980s in which blood infected with HIV was distributed in France, and later abroad, even after government became aware of the problem. Hundreds were infected, and Fabius was charged with manslaughter, but acquitted in 1999. His health minister was convicted but never punished. In more recent times, it is his 34-year-old son Thomas who has caused Fabius the most embarrassment. Thomas Fabius has faced a raft of legal problems over his passion for gambling and is wanted in the United States for allegedly writing rubber cheques for millions of dollars at several Las Vegas casinos. He has also been charged with forgery in France.

Morocco stands by Saudi against threats to Gulf peace
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Morocco’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that Rabat stands in “complete solidarity” with Saudi Arabia against any threats to stability of the Gulf region. “We are in complete solidarity with Saudi confronting any interference in its internal affairs,” Salaheddine Mezouar said during a joint press conference with his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir. The Saudi top diplomat was on his first visit to Morocco since his appointment as Saudi’s foreign minister last year. Mezouar emphasized that Morocco stands with Saudi against threats to the Gulf region’s peace, and said that the Saudi-led military operation which began in Yemen last year “proved that it was launched to defend legitimacy” in the country. The Iran-backed Houthi militias and allied forces of deposed Yemeni leader Ali Abdullah Saleh claimed control of Sanaa in Sep. 2014 and then moved to seize most of the country’s other major cities, briefly pushing the Yemeni government - including President Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi - into exile. In reaction, Saudi Arabia formed an Arab coalition last year in a bid to restore to power Yemeni’s internationally recognized government and unseat the Houthis. The foreign minister said Rabat “rejects sectarianism and interference in states’ internal affairs.”Jubeir, meanwhile, reiterated that there is no place for President Bashar al-Assad’s in the future of Syria. He also said “of course, there is Plan B in case the political process fails in Syria,” but did not disclose any further details. However, he said Riyadh was ready to participate with the U.S.-led coalition if it decides to send troops to Syria.

Egypt tells Libya to lead anti-ISIS effort
Reuters | Washington Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Libya needs to form a unified government before the United States and European allies opt for any military intervention against thousands of ISIS fighters in the chaotic North African country, Egypt’s foreign minister said on Tuesday. “This has to be a Libyan-led process,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told Reuters in an interview, while acknowledging that efforts to forge a single government from two rivals in neighboring Libya have been “difficult.” U.S. counter-terrorism officials have been alarmed at the growth of an ISIS affiliate in Libya, where it has amassed thousands of fighters, seized a coastal strip that includes the city of Sirte and attacked oil infrastructure. The Arab country plunged into chaos in the aftermath of the uprising against longtime dictator Muammar Gadaffi, whose fall was helped by a NATO-led air campaign in 2011.
Speaking to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said ISIS Libya affiliate is “one of its most developed branches outside Syria and Iraq.” The affiliate, he said, “is well positioned to expand territory under its control in 2016.”U.S. officials have debated increasing air strikes in Libya or deploying U.S. Special Operations Forces, but they say any military campaign is still weeks or even months away. Shoukry suggested that international intervention without Libyan approval could backfire. “The experience in the past ... might have been met by the Libyan people with a little bit of concern, the outcome of the last intervention,” he said, referring to turmoil that followed in the wake of the West’s help in bringing down Gadaffi. “I think we all recognize that this is an issue that primarily will have to be dealt with by Libyans,” he said. Despite an agreement signed in December, Libya’s rival governments have failed to finalize arrangements for a Government of National Accord. In the interview, Shoukry rejected growing criticism of Egypt’s human rights record. Human Rights Watch last year cited estimates that authorities have jailed more than 41,000 people since President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took power in 2014, after the military ousted Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Mursi the previous year. Shoukry said he objected to “broad generalizations and the use of numbers that are not authenticated or verified.” “There are certainly members of the Muslim Brotherhood who are in prison, who are facing trial for having perpetrated actions or activities that are not within the confines of the law,” he said. “We are doing so in the context of a judicial system without any resort to any extra-judicial measures,” he said. Egypt is fighting an Islamist insurgency in Sinai that gained momentum since Mursi’s ouster in mid-2013. Hundreds of soldiers and police have been killed.

Grandson of Iran’s Khomeini fails election appeal
AFP, Tehran Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, said Wednesday he had lost an appeal against his exclusion from elections for the powerful Assembly of Experts. “Based on news we have received, Sayyad Hassan Khomeini’s qualification for candidacy for the Assembly of Experts has once again not been approved by the Guardian Council,” he wrote on instant messaging service Telegram. The Guardian Council, a conservative-dominated committee that decides who can run for public office, has barred hundreds of candidates from standing for the assembly on February 26, the same day as parliamentary polls. The Assembly of Experts monitors the work of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and its 88 members may also be responsible for picking the 76-year-old’s eventual successor. Following Iran’s recent nuclear deal with world powers led by the United States, both elections are seen as crucial to shaping the country’s future direction. Khomeini, a cleric who has ties to reformist politicians, said last month he would appeal a Guardian Council decision to ban him from running. “It’s a surprise to me and to many others that some of the honorable gentlemen in the Guardian Council couldn't establish I am qualified,” Khomeini had said. The 43-year-old, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who led the 1979 Islamic revolution that ended the reign of US-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, holds no official political position. A government official said this week that prominent reformists were among more than 1,400 initially rejected candidates now eligible to contest parliamentary elections later this month. The individuals were not named but a final candidate list is expected on February 16. The number of people allowed to contest the parliamentary election now stands at 6,185 -- 51 percent of original applicants -- including 586 women.

Israel extends ex-PM Olmert’s prison sentence
The Associated Press, Jerusalem Wednesday, 10 February 2016/An Israeli court extended former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s 18-month prison sentence by a month Wednesday for pressuring a confidant not to testify in multiple legal cases against him. The Jerusalem Magistrate’s Court rejected a plea bargain Olmert signed in January in which he pleaded guilty to charges of obstruction of justice in an attempt to avoid additional jail time. Olmert is set to report to prison Monday. He will be the first Israeli former prime minister to go to prison. Olmert was convicted in March 2014 in a wide-ranging case that accused him of accepting bribes to promote a controversial real-estate project, and was sentenced to six years. In December Israel’s Supreme Court reduced his sentence. Olmert’s attorney Eli Zohar told Army Radio that he would likely “appeal in order to defend the sanctity of the plea bargain.” Former Israeli President Moshe Katsav began a seven-year prison term in 2011 for rape.

Iran to upgrade and get Russian S-300 missiles
Reuters, Dubai Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Iran will unveil an upgrade of its Emad ballistic missiles this year, the defense minister was quoted as saying, advancing a programme that has drawn criticism from the United Nations and sanctions from the United States. The Islamic Republic would also start taking delivery of an advanced Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile defense system in the next two months, Hossein Dehghan added - a system that was blocked before a landmark nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran agreed the deal on curbing its nuclear work in July last year and international sanctions were lifted in January. But tensions with Washington have remained high as Tehran continues to develop its military capabilities.Iran first tested the Emad missile in October. With improved accuracy over its existing arsenal, Iran says the new missile will be an important part of its conventional deterrent. But the United States says the Emad is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and the test therefore violated a U.N. resolution. Washington imposed fresh sanctions last month against Iranian individuals and businesses linked to the missile programme. “We will unveil the next generation of Emad with improved precision in the next (Iranian) year (starting from March 20),” Dehghan was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency late on Tuesday. “The Emad missile is not a violation of the nuclear deal or any U.N. resolution since we will never use a nuclear warhead (on it). It’s an allegation,” he said, adding that mass production would begin in the near future. Iran is also due to start taking delivery of the S-300 missiles system from Russia in the next two months, Dehghan said, and the order would be completed by the end of the year. Russia cancelled a contract to deliver the advanced anti-missile rocket system to Iran in 2010 under pressure from the West following U.N. sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear programme. Tehran and Moscow have also started talks on the supply of the Russian-made Sukhoi-30 fighter jets to Iran, Dehghan said. “We have even decided on the number of Sukhoi-30 fighter jets that we want to buy,” Dehghan said.

Israel locks down Palestinian village after settler stabbed
AFP, Jerusalem Wednesday, 10 February 2016/The Israeli army locked down a village in the occupied West Bank, the military said, as part of efforts to find the perpetrator who stabbed a Jewish man from a nearby settlement Tuesday. The army spokeswoman said only “humanitarian cases” would be let in and out of Nahalin, southwest of Bethlehem and a short distance from the settlement of Neve Daniel. A Jewish man in his twenties had appeared at the entrance to the settlement after having been stabbed while out jogging. He was taken to hospital in moderate condition, with stab wounds in the upper body, medics said. The army said forces were searching the area, but could not immediately determine the nature of the attack. The incident bore the hallmarks of Palestinian attacks over the past four months targeting Israeli security and civilians in the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Israel, primarily stabbings but also shootings and car-rammings. The wave of violence that erupted in October has claimed the lives of 165 Palestinians, 26 Israelis, a U.S. national, an Eritrean and a Sudanese. Most of the Palestinians were killed carrying out attacks, while others died during clashes and demonstrations. Neve Daniel is part of the Etzion bloc of settlements, a focal point of the unrest. Earlier Tuesday, a 13-year-old Palestinian girl was arrested at the entrance to the bloc’s Karmei Tzur settlement, after a knife was found on her, the army said. And at the Damascus Gate entrance to Jerusalem’s Old City, a 16-year-old Palestinian girl was arrested after attempting to stab police officers and then fleeing. Nobody was injured.

Study says Mosul dam at ‘higher risk’ of failure
The Associated Press, Baghdad Wednesday, 10 February 2016/Iraq’s Mosul Dam has long been branded the world’s most dangerous dam, at risk of collapsing and sending water crashing over millions of people. That prospect is even greater than was previously believed after ISIS captured the dam briefly in 2014, according to a new report by U.S. Army engineers. Efforts to find a permanent solution for the dam, Iraq’s biggest, are held up by political wrangling and the price tag of more than $2 billion, leaving the country dependent on stopgap measures that some experts fear will no longer be enough. Iraq’s Water Resources Ministry says there is no imminent danger of collapse, despite the U.S. warnings. The dam’s core problem is that it was shoddily built on unstable ground: The earth underneath it is constantly being eroded by water. From the day it was inaugurated in 1985, maintenance crews have had to continuously pour cement under its foundation. Without that constant injection — known as “grouting” — the 113-meter-high dam would soon collapse into a hole in the ground, causing an unprecedented disaster. The 30-mile long lake behind it would explode down the Tigris River valley with hundreds of millions of cubic meters of water, ramming into Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, currently home to more than 700,000 people about 40 miles downriver. It would then flood all the way down to Baghdad, some 340 miles south. U.S. officials have estimated more than a half million people could be killed. Millions more would be driven from their homes. “Mosul Dam is at a significantly higher risk of failure than originally understood and is at a higher risk of failure today than it was a year ago,” said the report, which emerged in a parliament report made public on Monday. The report gave no estimated timeline for a potential collapse, but U.S. officials and engineers warn it could happen at any time. Grouting can extend the dam’s lifespan, but any disruption could quickly turn disastrous. “The likelihood of the dam collapsing is something we are trying to determine right now,” U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland told reporters in Baghdad in January. “All we know is when it goes, it’s going to go fast and that’s bad.”

Trump, Sanders Win Big in New Hampshire
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/16/Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders decisively won Tuesday's presidential primaries in New Hampshire, riding a wave of anti-establishment anger in the second key test of the long, unpredictable race for the White House. Major U.S. networks gave the Republican Trump and the self-described democratic socialist Sanders the win, confirming a deflating if expected defeat for Hillary Clinton, who put a brave face on the loss and admitted she had some work to do as the campaign moves south. On the Republican side, Ohio Governor John Kasich staked an early claim to second place, a potentially critical result for him as the GOP works out which mainstream candidate could successfully mount a challenge against the billionaire tycoon. The real estate mogul, who appeared to have garnered more than double the support of his nearest rivals, did what he had to do: secure a solid win after his embarrassing second-place finish in Iowa that had called into question his showmanship strategy and his brand as a winner. Sanders addressed a raucous crowd of supporters at his victory party in Concord, saying his primary win signaled voters no longer wanted business as usual in U.S. political life. "What the people here have said is that given the enormous crises facing our country, it is just too late for the same old, same old establishment politics and establishment economics. The people want real change," he said. "Together, we have sent the message that will echo from Wall Street to Washington, from Maine to California."
Over at Trump headquarters, the crowd chanted "U-S-A! U-S-A!""We are going now to South Carolina. We're going to win in South Carolina," Trump said, looking down the campaign trail to the next stop. His win reinforced his position as the man to beat on the Republican side. "He seems to be speaking for the silent majority," said auto mechanic Chris Skora after voting for the real estate magnate. "A lot of us feel that way and it seems like in this day and age, we can't say these things with the PC police all around."- A 'message' to America -Exit polls showed Sanders winning every demographic group -- a stunning result for an independent lawmaker and a potential warning sign for Clinton as she turns the campaign toward the next states that vote, South Carolina and Nevada. "I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people," Clinton conceded, as she recognized the American electorate's fury with establishment politics. "People have every right to be angry," she said. "But they're also hungry, they're hungry for solutions."Once every four years, the nation's eyes focus turn to New Hampshire, the small northeastern state, home to just 1.3 million people, that holds the first state primaries after the Iowa caucuses kick off the U.S. presidential nomination process.
Officials predicted a record turnout.
New Hampshire sets the tone for the primaries to come -- and could whittle down a crowded Republican field as the arch-conservative Senator Ted Cruz, who won Iowa last week, and other mainstream candidates battle for second or third place. Also in the fray for primary scraps were former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio is hoping to match or better his third-place Iowa finish, despite taking a drubbing in Saturday's debate when New Jersey Governor Chris Christie eviscerated the first-term Florida senator for robotically repeating the same talking points. For the past 60 years or so, most of the candidates who ended up winning the White House won their party's primary in the so-called Granite State. But tellingly, the last three presidents -- Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton -- were all elected despite losing in New Hampshire.
- Last-minute voters -Everything was to play for in New Hampshire on Tuesday due to a high number of registered independents, who can choose to vote in either party, and the famous last-minute nature of voters here.
Exit polls conducted by CNN showed that nearly half of Republican voters did not make their final decision about whom to support until the last few days.
Trump has energized broad swaths of blue-collar Americans, angry about economic difficulties and frustrated at what they see as their country losing its global stature. And the race could be upended yet again if former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg were to launch an independent bid. He told the Financial Times he was "looking at all options."On the Democratic front, Clinton failed to confound polls that for weeks predicted a large victory for her insurgent challenger Sanders, who is big on erasing economic inequality. Clinton -- bidding to be America's first female president -- won Iowa by a hair, and remains the overall favorite to win the Democratic nomination.  But Sanders' strong performance shows his campaign, even though it faces an uphill battle, can give the former secretary of state a run for her money deep into election season.

Trump: Celebrity Billionaire, Next U.S. President?
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/16/Donald Trump is a billionaire real estate tycoon with bravado to spare, a former reality television star who says winning is everything. The unlikely Republican presidential frontrunner now can claim his first victory in the political arena after notching up a win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday -- to the horror of the political establishment. The 69-year-old New Yorker has upended the 2016 presidential election by casting a spell over grassroots conservatives and not shying away from talking tough. To his fans, he is the definition of American success, the cut-throat tycoon who can magically fix all that's wrong with a country no longer sure of its place in the world, and home to an increasingly frustrated white working and middle class. To his critics, he is a racist demagogue or, at best, a buffoon with an orange perma-tan and an odd helmet of hair who would either hand Hillary Clinton the White House -- or lead the world into unmitigated catastrophe. What is clear is that Trump isn't really interested in following the traditional political playbook. He insults women, Mexicans, Muslims -- virtually everyone who crosses his path and yet his say-it-how-it-is honesty, defiance of political correctness and disdain for the political class has struck a chord matched by almost no other candidate. He promises to build a wall on the Mexican border, deport millions of illegal immigrants and stand up to China to "Make America Great Again." He also plays fast and loose with statistics, and has never unveiled detailed policies. He jets from rally to rally in his Boeing 757 like a rock star, and sucks up roughly as much TV coverage as the other candidates combined, saving him tens of millions of dollars in paid advertising. The big question is: Can he translate his poll numbers into votes? He's now lost in Iowa and won in New Hampshire. What happens when the campaign shifts to South Carolina, Nevada and on along the long road to the November election? - Billions -The Donald, as he is nicknamed, was born on June 14, 1946 in Queens, New York City, the fourth of five children.
His father Fred was a wealthy real estate developer and the son of German immigrants. His mother Mary was from Scotland. Boisterous and unruly, he was packed off to New York Military Academy, a private boarding school near West Point, and graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1968 with an economics degree. He then set to work for his father, who made money building and operating middle-income apartments in New York's outer boroughs. But Queens and Brooklyn were never going to be enough for the young Donald. He shot off to Manhattan and the big league, snapping up some of the flashiest real estate in the country, riding the wave of Reaganomics and coming to embody the swanky extravagance of the 1980s. His true wealth is up for dispute. Trump told the Federal Election Commission he has more than $10 billion. Forbes insists it is no more than $4.5 billion. But there is barely a corner of Manhattan that the Trump Organization hasn't conquered with luxury buildings. Its portfolio of hotels, golf courses, casinos and luxury estates straddles the world, from California to Mumbai. He has written a string of best-selling business books and cemented his fame by starring in NBC reality series "The Apprentice," which spawned "The Celebrity Apprentice" -- until the network dumped him for offending Mexicans. - Insults -There were other business flops along the way. Four times between 1991 and 2009, his casino and hotel projects on the East Coast fell into bankruptcy. Best known until then for his three marriages, media stunts and for whipping up a frenzy over Barack Obama's birth certificate, Trump's bid for the White House was initially met by mirth last June. But within weeks, he catapulted to the top of the polls in a crowded field of Republican candidates and there he has remained. No matter who he insults, his admirers only love him all the more. He called Mexicans rapists, questioned whether America's most distinguished ex-POW, John McCain, was a war hero and seemed to imply that a Fox News anchor asked him difficult questions because she was menstruating. He sparked international condemnation when he called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States. In London, MPs debated whether he should be banned from Britain. And still thousands, particularly lower income and less-educated white Americans, flock to his rallies, mesmerized by a man who promises that he can translate personal success into a better country at large. Previously a Democrat and an independent, he has ditched once liberal views on gun control and abortion, lurching to the right on the campaign trail, alarming and alienating moderate Republicans. Trump has five children -- three with his first wife, former Czech model Ivana whom he divorced in 1992; a daughter with second wife Marla Maples; and a son with current wife, Melania, a Slovenian-born model.

Ministers for happiness, tolerance in the UAE
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
On Oct. 19, 2015, Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum - vice president and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and ruler of Dubai - launched the “Happy City” survey to assess how satisfied residents are in Dubai. Police sent out text messages entitled “Happy City” to residents to measure their happiness, and called on them to participate in the survey. The UAE has silently worked hard for the last two decades to achieve comprehensive development that goes beyond benefiting from oil to looking after its people and establishing an exceptional infrastructure. Maktoum told Emiratis they will celebrate exporting the last barrel of oil by fostering a non-oil economy. The UAE has achieved a miracle that other Arab countries have dreamt of since their renaissance in the 1960s. These include oil-rich countries such as Libya and Iraq - the latter is also rich with natural, agricultural and water resources. Non-oil producing countries that are rich with natural resources include Sudan, Egypt and Lebanon.
Development
These countries’ development plans could not be fully executed due to political divisions and poor strategies. Meanwhile, the UAE has silently worked hard for the last two decades to achieve comprehensive development that goes beyond benefitting from oil to looking after its people and establishing an exceptional infrastructure. It is a miracle because in the 1960s, the country mainly consisted of desert. There were no hospitals worth mentioning, or any universities or ministries. This was only a few decades ago. Maktoum on Monday said his country would create a “minister for happiness” post, whose “major task will be to harmonize all state plans, projects and policies to achieve society’s happiness.” In the Gulf, development projects in one country inspire others, which is why Gulf states complement and support each other, and why many countries in the region benefit from such projects. There will also be a UAE minister for tolerance. Emirati society has thus collaborated with its leaders to achieve distinguished individual, governmental and national development plans.

Everyone to blame for failure of Syria diplomacy
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
International leaders are blaming Russia for the failure of the Geneva talks on Syria, and the general paralysis of the peace process. Moscow is blamed for causing an enormous number of casualties due to its bombings, for increasing the refugee flow to neighbouring countries, and for blindly supporting President Bashar al-Assad. Russian denials are unconvincing, which makes such accusations more persuasive. It is useless to deny that Russia’s purpose in Syria is not only to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), but to back the full-scale offensive of Assad’s forces. It is counterproductive to proclaim that the fight in Aleppo is against ISIS or terrorists, because it is commonly known that it is a stronghold of Syrian rebels. There is a strong feeling that all sides are convinced, but cannot officially admit, that the Syrian conflict can only be settled militarily. It is counterproductive to deny civilian casualties when this is inevitable with any airstrikes targeting populated areas. Those of the U.S.-led coalition are always causing civilian causalities, but media coverage of that is scant. It is counterproductive to present a scenario of righteous fighters against evil, because on the Syrian battlefield no one is righteous. Such disavowals of evident things undermine reputations and positions in any negotiation process. We are living in an era of high-speed information, where anyone can not only consume information but generate it, sharing eye-witnesses accounts on social media. What can be more reliable than proof from witnesses? Moscow has good negotiating proposals, which U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledges. However, he has said fairly that if their purpose is to allow the continuation of Russian airstrikes, they are useless and no one will agree to them.
Battlefield
Taking into account that Syrian rebels appear mostly abandoned by their Western allies, and that pro-Assad forces have been strengthened by Russian airstrikes and weaponry, the complete defeat of Syrian rebels on the ground seems the most plausible scenario. Under such circumstances, the Syrian opposition is extremely weakened at the negotiating table. Russia’s participation in the war and in diplomacy does not help talks, but it is not the only one to blame for their failure. The Syrian opposition has not united its ranks or elaborated a common position and approach. In addition, the absence of Kurdish representatives in negotiations due to Turkish opposition is absurd, because the Kurds play a huge role in the fate of Syria and Iraq, and the fight against ISIS. Iran pursuing its own interests, on the ground and at the negotiation table, does not help talks. Neither does Gulf states’ willingness to launch ground operations against ISIS as part of the U.S.-led coalition, as they would most likely support Syrian rebels against pro-Assad forces. No player at the negotiating table is contributing to the success of the political process. There is a strong feeling that all sides are convinced, but cannot officially admit, that the Syrian conflict can only be settled militarily. The problem is that military means complicate the situation, especially from a global perspective. Unfortunately, the possibility of a political resolution has been dramatically undermined by Russian airstrikes, which are officially against ISIS but have concentrated on rebel strongholds also. Moscow and Assad will defeat the rebels and terrorists, but also crush hopes for justice, a political transition and diplomatic resolution.

World peace versus Saudi national security
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/February 10/16
In the event of victory for Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen, Yemeni politicians - including the Houthis, should they wish - would return to dialogue to build a country that is not governed by a dictator or a single political or sectarian faction. However, a Russian-Iranian victory in Syria will maintain an oppressive sectarian regime that caused the ongoing revolution, and will threaten global security. The situation is as dangerous as the Cuban missile crisis or the 1958 Middle East crisis, imperiling a region that is important for the global economy. So why can Washington not see that Russia’s thwarting of negotiations in Geneva, and the continuation of its fierce war in Syria, constitute a threat to world peace? U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry cannot be that naïve to believe he can convince the Syrian opposition to partner with President Bashar al-Assad to fight terrorism. What is wrong with the Americans? Why do they not listen to Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir when he says his country will militarily support the opposition if negotiations fail? Saudi Arabia’s responsibility is to protect its national security, given that a Russian-Iranian victory in Syria will have negative repercussions on Saudi internal affairs.
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has made similar statements about his country’s support for the Syrian opposition, raising speculation in Turkish media about whether Ankara will be part of the Islamic military alliance announced by Riyadh last month. It is widely known that both countries reject a Russian-Iranian victory in Syria. The time has come for Washington to understand that the Saudis and Turks are not bluffing.
U.S. inaction
Americans would consider Turkish intervention in northern Syria, or Saudi shipment of surface-to-air missiles to the rebels, as a threat to world peace. This is how they should have viewed Russian and Iranian interference in Syria. Washington must take an immediate firm stance against this.
Saudi Arabia’s responsibility is to protect its national security, given that a Russian-Iranian victory in Syria will have negative repercussions on Saudi internal affairs. Luckily, Turkey - another major regional power - shares the same concern because a Russian-Iranian victory would lead to their permanent presence south of its borders, allowing for the expansion of a Kurdish state or zone of influence. Why is this so unclear to Washington? Is it because of its withdrawal policy that President Barack Obama will be proud of when he writes his memoirs and describes how he protected his country from the sectarian wars of the Middle East? Riyadh must not take U.S. cooperation for granted. There are opponents waiting for any loophole to allow them to turn the table on us. Yemen and Syria represent the same battle, for us and them. What is happening in Syria threatens world peace. It is leading to the rise of far-right parties in Europe. In Jordan, the refugee issue is no longer just humanitarian but also political, a source of concern to King Abdullah and his government. He used the term “boiling” to refer to the state of his country when dealing with the flood of refugees. His government said the longer the conflict rages, the less likely it is that Syrian refugees will return home. It expects some of them to settle in Jordan, which suffers from a weak economy, while the rest will not leave for many years. Regardless of who wins the war, and even if it ends tomorrow, they have no place to go back to. These painful details should be told to Washington, which must take part in and keep pace with Saudi political and military activity in the region. The United States is an important player because it can face Russia. We should remind the Americans that the Syrian crisis has crossed regional, European and Asian borders.

Syria: Checkered Past, Uncertain Future
Amir Taheri/Gatestone Institute/February 10, 2016
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/02/10/amir-taheri-syria-checkered-past-uncertain-future/
Because almost every religious and/or ethnic community in Syria is divided, some siding with Assad and others fighting against him, it is difficult to establish clear sectarian demarcation lines. Syria today is a patchwork of emirates.
The Islamic Republic of Iran needed Syria to complete the “Shiite Crescent” which it saw as its glacis and point of access to the Mediterranean. Iran is estimated to have spent something like $12 billion on its Syrian venture. By the time of this writing, Iran had also lost 143 ranking officers, captain and above, in combat in Syrian battlefields.
Turkey’s “soft” Islamic leadership, the main source of support for anti-Assad forces, has always had ties to the global movement of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is likely that Turkey’s leaders see the Syrian imbroglio as an opportunity for them to “solve” the problem of Kurdish-Turkish secessionists based in Syrian territory since the 1980s.
Turkey has become host to more than 2.5 million Syrian refugees, posing a long-term humanitarian and security challenge. Ankara’s decision to goad large numbers of refugees into the European Union was an attempt at forcing the richer nations of the continent to share some of Turkey’s burden.
The country most dramatically, and perhaps permanently, affected by the Syrian conflict is Lebanon. More than 1.8 million Syrian refugees have arrived, altering the country’s delicate demographic balance. If the new arrivals stay permanently, Lebanon would become another Arab Sunni majority state.
Next March will mark the fifth anniversary of what started as another chapter in the so-called “Arab Spring” morphed into a civil war, degenerated into a humanitarian catastrophe and, finally, led to the systemic collapse of Syria as a nation-state.
That sequence of events has had a profound impact on virtually the whole of the region known as the Greater Middle East, affecting many aspects of its component nations ranging from demography, ethno-sectarian composition and security. Since the purpose of this presentation is not to offer an historic account of the events, a brief reminder of some key aspects would suffice.
Five years ago, when the first demonstration took place in Deraa, in southern Syria, much of the so-called “Arab World” was in a state of high expectations in the wake of uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya that seemed to have ended decades of despotic rule by military-security organs of the state. Despite important differences, the Syrian state at the time fitted the description of the typical model of the Arab state as developed after the Second World War.
It was, therefore, not fanciful to think that it might respond to the first signs of popular discontent in the same ways as similar states had done elsewhere in the Arab World. One important difference was that at the time the uprising started, the Syrian state, arguably the most repressive in the modern Arab World, apart from Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, had embarked on a program of timid reform and liberalization. The new dictator, Bashar al-Assad, had tried to portray himself as a Western-educated reformer attracted to aspects of pluralism and a market economy. He had allowed the emergence of the first privately owned banks and privatized a number of state-owned companies. He had also allowed the private sector to take the lead in a number of new sectors, notably mobile phones and the Internet. To be sure, the new banks, the privatized companies and the new technology companies were almost all owned by members of the Assad clan and associates with the military-security apparatus keeping a close watch on all activities. Nevertheless, there was some consensus among Syria-watchers in the West that the young Assad was taking the first steps necessary towards reform. This impression was reinforced by the fact that the regime allowed the emergence of a number of Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) active on a range of issues, including human rights, albeit with security services keeping a close watch.
The Western powers tried to encourage what they saw as a slow-moving process of reform by offering Assad economic aid, largely though the European Union, and deference at the diplomatic level. Assad was invited to high-profile state visits, including to Britain and France, where he was given a front seat at the traditional 14thof July military parade in Paris.
At the time marchers were gathering in Deraa, the Obama administration was preparing the ground for Assad’s visit to Washington, with a number of high profile Democrats penning op-eds in praise of the Syrian leader as a reformer and moderate.
The then head of the Foreign Relations Committee in the US Senate, Senator John Kerry, had forged a personal friendship with Assad, whom he had met in a number of visits to Damascus, where their respective wives also developed a bond of sympathy.
The fact that Assad’s relations with the Bush administration had been stormy, to say the least, also helped Assad’s image with the Obama administration, which was building a foreign policy based on anti-Bush sentiments. (Bush had forced Assad to end Syria’s occupation of Lebanon; Assad had retaliated by allowing Islamist terrorists to pass through Syria to kill Americans in Iraq.) For three decades, Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad had been the only Arab leader to have had tête-à-tête meetings with all US Presidents from Richard Nixon to Bill Clinton. President George W. Bush had broken that tradition by not bestowing the same distinction on Bashar al-Assad.
In the end, the Assad regime repeated the experience of virtually all authoritarian regimes that have tried the recipe for “guided reform.”
An authoritarian regime is never more in danger than when it attempts liberalization. Also, the fact is that not all authoritarian regimes have efficient mechanisms for reform. In some cases, the choice is between crushing popular demands for reform and the risk of regime change. As Latin Americans know well, while dictablanda (light dictatorship) could be reformed, dictadura (hard dictatorship) has to be overthrown.
After a brief period in which, Hamlet-like, he wondered whether to kill or not to kill, Assad opted for the latter, sending his tanks to crush Deraa. The recipe had been tried in 1982 under his father, General Hafez al-Assad, in Hama and had worked, ensuring almost three decades of stability for the regime.
Like other Arab authoritarian regimes facing popular revolts, the Assad regime was, at least in part, a victim of its own relative success.
The decades of stability after Hama and Syria’s effective, though not formal, end of the state of war with Israel, had allowed the formation of a new urban middle class, an impressive quantitative growth of educational facilities, and the revival of traditional sectors of the economy, notably agriculture and handicraft industries, that escaped central government control.
Assad’s record in such domains as literacy, improved health services that helped raise life expectancy levels, and access to higher education, was significantly better than the average for the 22 members of the Arab League. A new urban middle class with Western-style political aspirations had emerged only to find itself constrained by a Third World-style political system. The problem was that this new middle class, politically inexperienced not to say immature, could not go beyond expressing its aspirations in a haphazard way. It had no political structure and leadership to translate those aspirations into a strategy for a radical re-shaping of Syrian society.
Thus, like other nations experiencing the Arab Spring, not to mention the European Revolutions of 1848, the Syrian uprising faced the prospect of defeat by the authoritarian state it wished to reform. The failure of the uprising to develop a coherent strategy created a vacuum that other forces soon tried to fill.
The first of those forces was the Muslim Brotherhood, the longest-standing adversary of the Assad regime and its Arab Socialist Baath (“Resurgence”) Party machine. Having remained as mere spectator in the early phases of uprising, the Brotherhood, its leadership then based in exile in Germany, reactivated its dormant cells and started promoting sectarian themes: Sunni Muslims against the Alawite minority to which Assad belongs.
Paradoxically, the regime indirectly encouraged the ascent of the Brotherhood for two reasons. First, it hoped that a dose of sectarianism would unify the Alawite minority, 10 per cent of the population, around the regime, while persuading other minorities, notably Christians, some 8 per cent of the population, and Ismailis and Druze, another two per cent, that they would have a better chance with a secular authoritarian regime rather than a militant Sunni Islamist one. To drive that point home, the regime started releasing large numbers of militant Sunni Islamists, among them many future leaders of the Islamic Sate Caliphate (or ISIS). Assad also worked on Kurds, around 10 per cent of the population, many of whom had had their Syrian nationality withdrawn in the 1960s. In a presidential decree, he promised to restore their nationality while hinting at major concessions on the issue of internal autonomy for ethnic minorities.
By encouraging the sectarian aspects of the conflict, Assad also hoped to win sympathy and support from Western democracies that, then as now, were concerned about the rise of militant Islam as a threat to their own security.
By playing the sectarian card, Assad also won greater support from the Shiite regime in the Islamic Republic in Tehran. Shiism does not recognize Alawites, better known in clerical circles as Nusayris, as Muslims, let alone Shiites.
Nevertheless, Tehran knew that while the Nusayri-dominated regime in Damascus posed no ideological-theological threat to it, the Muslim Brotherhood and its doctrine of pan-Islamism did. Tehran needed a friendly regime in Damascus to ensure continued access to neighboring Lebanon, where the Islamic Republic was the major foreign influence, thanks to its sponsorship of the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah.
Already enjoying a major presence in Iraq, the Islamic Republic needed Syria to complete the “Shiite Crescent” which it saw as its glacis and point of access to the Mediterranean.
Even then, the struggle for Syria did not become, and even today is not, a sectarian war, although, within it we have a war of the sectarians. Other forces are present in this complex conflict. Among them are dissidents of the Ba’ath, especially members of its leftist tendencies who had been suppressed under Assad senior. The remnants of Syria’s various Communist parties are also active, as are small but experienced Arab nationalist (Nasserist) groups.
Because almost every religious and/or ethnic community is divided, some siding with Assad and others fighting against him, it is difficult to establish clear sectarian demarcation lines. Even the Kurds are deeply divided among themselves with the PKK, the Turkish Kurdish party, present in Syria as exiles for decades, holding the balance of power.
A further complication is due to the involvement of a growing number of foreign powers, the latest being Russia.
We have already mentioned Iran’s involvement in trying to protect a regime with which it never succeeded in forging a genuine friendship. This was an alliance of necessity, not of choice, from the start, because Tehran needed Damascus to split the Arab World during the eight-year long Iran-Iraq war against a background of rivalry between Assad senior and Saddam Hussein for the leadership of the pan-Arab Baath.
Assad senior visited Tehran only once, for a few hours, and took extra care to impose strict limits on Iranian presence in Syria, while profiting from Iranian largesse in the form of cut-price oil, cash handouts and delivery of weapons. It was only under Bashar that Syria allowed Iran to open consulates outside Damascus and, eventually, set up 14 “Cultural Centers” to promote Shiite Islam. It was also under Bashar that Tehran and Damascus concluded a relatively limited “Defense Cooperation Agreement” that included joint staff conversations and exchanges of military intelligence.
Although more than a million Iranians visited Syria each year on a pilgrimage to the Tomb of Lady Zeynab near Damascus, almost no Syrians visited Iran, while trade between the two allies remained insignificant. In an interview given shortly before his death in combat near Aleppo, Iranian General Hussein Hamadani, recalled how senior Syrian army officers were “extremely unwilling” to let the Iranian military have a say in planning, let alone conducting, operations against anti-Assad rebels. The Syrian generals had a secular upbringing, loved their drinks, and regarded the Iranians as medieval fanatics clinging to anachronistic dreams.
By 2015, however, Iran was the principal supporter of the Assad regime. Iran is estimated to have spent something like $12 billion on its Syrian venture, including the payment of the salaries of government employees in areas still under Assad’s control. By the time of this writing, Iran had also lost 143 ranking officers, captain and above, in combat in Syrian battlefields. Sent to fight in Syria on orders from Tehran, the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah has played a crucial role in limiting Assad’s territorial losses, especially in the south close to the border with Lebanon and the mountains west of Damascus. Conservative estimates put the number of Hezbollah’s losses in 2014 and 2015 at over 800, a third higher than its losses in the war with Israel in 2006.
Iran’s “Supreme Guide,” Ali Khamenei; has gone on record as saying he would not allow regime change in Damascus; he is the only foreign leader to do so.
While Iran is the major force backing Assad, Turkey has emerged as the main source of support for anti-Assad forces. In the first decade of the new century, Turkey, its economy experiencing sustained growth, invested more than $20 billion in Syria, thus turning Aleppo and adjacent provinces into part of the Turkish industrial hinterland. While Turkey’s critics accuse it of harboring neo-Ottoman dreams of domination in the Middle East, it is more likely that Ankara leaders see the Syrian imbroglio as an opportunity for them to “solve” the problem of Kurdish-Turkish secessionists based in Syrian territory since the 1980s.
Turkey’s “soft” Islamic leadership has always had ties to the global movement of the Muslim Brotherhood and is determined to see its Syrian allies end up with a big say in the future of that country.
Turkey has paid more for its Syrian involvement than has Iran for its meddling. Unlike Iran, which has not admitted a single Syrian refugee, Turkey has become host to more than 2.5 million Syrian refugees, posing a long-term humanitarian and security challenge at a time Ankara is grappling with economic recession and rising social tension.
Ankara’s decision to goad large numbers of refugees into the European Union was an attempt at forcing the richer nations of the continent to share some of Turkey’s burden. After four years of lobbying, Turkey has not succeeded in persuading its US ally to endorse the establishment of a “safe haven” and no-fly zone in Syria to persuade at least some Syrians to remain in their own homeland rather than become refugees in Turkey and other neighboring states.
However, the Iranian assumption that whatever happens in Syria will have no bearing on Iran’s own national security, while Turkey is in direct danger, may be misguided. The Islamic State Caliphate (ISIS) has already reached a tacit agreement not to go beyond a 40-kilometer line from Iran’s borders with Iraq, thereby indicating its desire to avoid a direct clash with Tehran at this point.
There is no guarantee that such self-restraint will remain in place in the context of failed states in Syria and parts of Iraq. Iranian authorities have publicly stated that some 80 Islamic State armed groups are present in Afghanistan and Pakistan close to Iranian borders. Iran’s security could also be threatened by a deeper involvement of various Kurdish communities, Syrian, Turkish, Iraqi and Iranian exiles in those countries, in a broader regional conflict. Iran’s total support for Assad may also land the Islamic Republic on the side of losers, when, and if, the remnant of the regime in Damascus collapses.
Russia, which has also entered the fray in support of Assad, may already be rethinking its rash decision to become involved in a conflict it does not quite understand and in a country where, a quarter of a century after the fall of the USSR, it has few reliable contacts.
Three events seem to have persuaded President Putin to soft-pedal his initial gang-ho posture. The first was the downing of the Russian passenger airliner by ISIS, a reminder of the vulnerability that Russia shares with all other states in the face of global terrorism. The second was the shooting down of a Russian fighter plane by Turkey, a reminder that in a situation as messy as the one in Syria, there is no way to guarantee that everything will remain under control all the time. The third event was the attack organized by a pro-Caliphate crowd on a Russian military base in Tajikistan, ostensibly to avenge the murder of a local girl by a Russian soldier.
Russia is home to an estimated 20 million Muslims, practicing or not, mostly of Sunni persuasion and at least theoretically sympathetic to the Syrian Sunni majority fighting Assad. Russia’s firm backing for Assad could provoke a terrorist response not only against Russian tourists, as we saw in Sharm al-Sheikh, but inside the federation itself.
The country most dramatically, and perhaps permanently, affected by the Syrian conflict is Lebanon. More than 1.8 million Syrian refugees have arrived, altering the country’s delicate demographic balance.
The current Lebanese caretaker government, with the Sunni Muslim Prime Minister holding immense executive powers, is keen to grant the new arrivals citizenship as fast as possible. If the new arrivals do stay permanently, Lebanon would become another Arab Sunni majority state with Christians, Shiites and Druze together accounting for no more than 45 per cent of the population.
Neighboring Jordan is also affected in a major way, this time in favor of the dominant Hashemite elite. The absorption of some 1.2 million Syrian refugees, most of them Sunni Muslims, and a further half a million Iraqi Sunni refugees would dilute the demographic mix in favor of non-Palestinian communities, notably Bedouin Arabs, Circassians, Druze, Turkic and Christian minorities, which account for no more than 35 per cent of the population.
The country most directly affected so far is Iraq, which has lost a good chunk of its territory, notably its third most populous city, Mosul, to the Islamic State caliphate centered at Raqqah in Syria. Baghdad’s leaders are concerned by the thought that Western powers may end up accepting a new partition of the Middle East that would include the emergence of a new Sunni-majority state composed of four Iraqi and five Syrian provinces.
The idea of talking to ISIS has already been raised in Britain by the new leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, with the suggestion that second-track channels be opened with the Caliphate to probe the possibility of peace talks and a compromise. Such a move would amount to a first step towards recognition of a separate new Sunni state.
Iraq is also concerned about the future of Kurdish areas taken back from the ISIS Caliphate by Kurdish fighters from Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Will the Kurds give back those lands to Baghdad once calm returns?
The idea of a new Sunni state on the Euphrates has promoted another idea, that of a state for minorities such as Alawites, Christians, Ismailis and Druze on the Mediterranean, extending from parts of Lebanon to the Syrian coastline along the mountains west of Damascus. That would roughly cover the portion of Syria that during their Mandate the French called “la Syrie utile” (useful Syria).
Russia, another state that has recently become involved in Syria, could secure the aeronaval facilities it seeks in the Mediterranean in the territory of that new state.
Needless to say, the Kurds, divided in communities present in Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and (former Soviet) Azerbaijan, are already affected by the Syrian conflict. The idea of a united Kurdish state has never been more present in the imagination of Kurds across the region. However, its realization has never seemed as remote as it is today. Various Kurdish communities and parties are engaged in a bitter struggle over control of the Kurdish narrative and agenda, at times even coming close to armed conflict. Conscious of the dangers involved, the Iraqi Kurdish leader Masood Barzani has been forced to hastily shelve his declared plan for declaring Kurdish independence in the three Iraqi provinces he controls in coalition with a number of other parties.
United in their fight against ISIS in their own neck of the woods, Kurds are deeply divided about what to do next; the danger of them using their guns — many supplied by the US — against each other cannot be ruled out.
Conflict in Syria also affects other Arab and Muslim countries, partly because of the magnet for jihadism created by the Caliphate and other Islamist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra (Victory Front). By the time of this writing, groups claiming some links with Syrian jihadists have carried out or attempted acts of terror in 21 Muslim-majority countries from Indonesia to Burkina Faso, passing by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Libya. Such groups were also responsible for attacks or attempted attacks in France, Belgium, Germany, Britain and the United States.
The oil-rich Arab states of the Persian Gulf have been active in support of various anti-Assad groups. But they, too, are in danger of repeating their disastrous experience in Afghanistan when they helped jihadis fight the local Communists and their Soviet sponsors only to end up with the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
In fact, for more than half a century, various jihadi leaders have dreamt of seizing control of at least one oil-rich Arab state capable of ensuring financial resources for their strategy of global conquest.
Later this month, a new international conference on Syria will open in Geneva. On the agenda is a plan for power-sharing, a new constitution and general elections under UN supervision within two years. Originally, the plan was developed by a New York-based think-tank in 2012 and conveyed to Assad through two prominent Lebanese political figures. Assad gave it a cautious welcome. The plan also enjoyed some support from the NSC in the Obama Administration. However, almost at the last minute, President Obama vetoed it, publicly stating that Assad must go.
If the plan had a slim chance in 2012, it has virtually none today. The reason is that no one is quite in charge of his own camp in Syria, assuming that one may discover easily recognizable camps capable of acting as distinct entities.
Syria had never been a distinct state entity until the French mandate, experimenting with at least five different versions of statehood, turned it into one after the First World War.
By 2011, when Deraa triggered the national uprising, Syria had become a proper nation-state with a sense of Syrianhood (in Arabic: Saryana) that had never before existed. This Saryana was evident in the nation’s literature, cinema, television, journalism and, more importantly, the version of Arabic people spoke from one end of the country to another.
With the collapse of the Syrian state, now in tenuous control of some 40 per cent of the national territory, and the intensification of the conflict with all its inevitable sectarian undertones, that sense of “Saryana” has come under strong pressure, and, in areas under the control of the ISIS Caliphate, singled out as enemy number-one. Syria today is a patchwork of emirates, large and small, coexisting and/or fighting in the context of a war economy and emphasis on local, ethnic, and religious particularism. Many of these emirates have developed a system of coexistence that allows them to run the communities under their control and guide them in different directions. In most cases, the direction in question is towards what is marketed as “pure Muhammadan Islam” in many different forms. But in a few cases, much to the surprise of many, timid experiments with pluralism and democracy are also under way.
The challenge today is not to rescue, through diplomatic gimmicks, a Syria that has largely ceased to exist but to help create a new Syria. That, however, is a challenge that no one today appears willing, let alone able, to face.
Amir Taheri, formerly editor of Iran’s premier newspaper, Kayhan, before the Iranian revolution of 1979, is a prominent author based on Europe. He is the Chairman of Gatestone Europe. These remarks on Syria were delivered at the Seminar on Regional Security organized by George C Marshall European Center for Security Studies, in Munich, Germany on January 25, 2016.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7408/syria-past-future

Will he, won't he? Turks ponder whether Erdogan will invade Syria
Cengiz Çandar/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
Nowadays, when two or more Turks come together, the conversation inevitably moves into questioning the motives of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his plans for Turkey's role in the ever-worsening situation in Syria. The question is: Is he going to push the army into Syrian territory?
Turkey's link with the Syrian rebels has been severely weakened by the seeming collapse of the Geneva III talks and the advances of Syrian regime forces from the north to Aleppo with the support of Russian air power. Dramatic developments are taking place in the Azaz-Jarablus corridor, which served as a lifeline for Syrian rebels backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and also, more or less, for those endorsed by the United States. The fighting there is not only depriving Turkey of its most important leverage in Syria, but also triggering a massive exodus of Syrians to Turkey. Turkey, already strained due to some 2.5 million refugees, is now faced with tens of thousands of potential newcomers.
Moreover, as this strategically vital corridor for Turkey is depopulated because of the intense Russian airstrikes, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) is moving into the region. As a result of this, Kurds can connect the Kurdish cantons stretching from Syria’s eastern frontier with Iraq and its western frontier with Turkey. Ankara has repeatedly declared any YPG move to the west of the Euphrates River as a red line violation, and Erdogan has said that Turkey is determined to act against such violations.
Yet that “red line” has been breached and perhaps effectively erased, as was the case with previous Turkish lines drawn to obstruct Kurdish ambitions in the region.
There are sufficient reasons for Erdogan to send Turkish ground troops into Syria, particularly to Aleppo, through which Ankara can hold some ground around the Azaz-Jarablus corridor. Also, this could be some kind of test, both of Russia’s commitment to the Syrian regime and NATO’s determination to support its ally.
Last weekend, Erdogan lashed out at several parties, including the United States and Russia, as he returned to Turkey from a controversial trip to a number of Latin American countries. It has become routine for him to make his most important policy speeches and threats on board the presidential jet, addressing the journalists he handpicks to accompany him.
In an interesting move, he signaled his intent to take the initiative in Syria. Recalling the pre-Iraq invasion days, Erdogan said he does not want to “commit the mistake in Syria that had been committed in Iraq.” He was apparently referring to the decree allowing Turkish troops into Iraqi Kurdistan along with the Americans — a decree that had not been approved by the Turkish parliament.
If Turkey had not missed its opportunity to send troops into Iraqi territory then, in 2003, the situation in Iraq today would be much different, according to Erdogan.
“Now, in Syria, the way the things are developing, they cannot go beyond a certain limit. We have to act according to our [security] sensitivities. Our airspace is also NATO’s air space. They [NATO] should also take the necessary steps. All this is a test for everybody.”
However, with any kind of direct Turkish involvement in Syria, there is a danger of confrontation with Russia. The danger is even more likely since the relations between the countries deteriorated following Turkey's downing of a Russian fighter jet Nov. 24.
Also on his return trip, Erdogan responded to Russia’s allegations that Turkish armed forces were preparing for an intervention in Syria: “Russia should be asked: What is your preoccupation with Syria? At the moment, you are like an invader. You are the one cooperating with the murderer of 400,000 people. … Turkey's [566-mile-long frontier with Syria] is under threat. Definitely, Turkey will take precautions. They are only precautions, while Russia is on the offensive. Russia has no right to make allegations on these issues. Moreover, we have compatriots in Syria. Oh Russia, do you have a common frontier here with Syria? Do you have compatriots?”
Washington was not immune to his wrath either. It was apparent that he was angered by America's gestures to its Kurdish ally in Syria, the YPG, which he considers a terrorist organization along with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the US-supported, Kurdish nationalist Democratic Union Party (PYD).
“The PYD, YPG are terrorist organizations. What the PKK is, the PYD is exactly the same. We will take this position to all the international bodies," Erdogan said.
He criticized Brett McGurk, US President Barack Obama's special representative to the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL (IS), for visiting Kobani, Syria, after Turkey refused to go along with having the PYD participate in the Geneva III talks.
“The PYD was not able to come to Geneva, so [McGurk] goes to Kobani and receives a commemorative plaque from a so-called general there," Erdogan said. The Turkish president asked the United States, "How can we trust you? Who is your partner — the terrorists in Kobani or me?”
The brief and very clear response came Feb. 8 from US State Department spokesman John Kirby. Washington understands Turkey’s concerns about the YPG, Kirby told reporters in his daily briefing, but the YPG is one of the most successful forces in the fight against the Islamic State.
“We do not see them as a terrorist organization and will continue supporting them,” he said. This was one of the most powerful rebuffs American authorities have ever unleashed at a Turkish president.
If Russian air power and the YPG’s presence on the ground don't deter Erdogan from sending Turkish troops into Syria, perhaps the remarks of the US State Department spokesman will.
Or perhaps those words will drive Erdogan to act more decisively about a possible military intervention in Syria in order to break the military link between the United States and the Syrian Kurds, as this has become the most fearsome development in the eyes of Turkey’s military establishment, which is phobic about Kurds.
So speculation about a possible Turkish military intervention in Syria is likely to grow louder and more intense among Turkey's citizens in the days to come.

Mystery surrounds killing of Italian scholar in Egypt
Shahira Amin/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
The mood was somber as dozens of Egyptian activists, academics and foreign journalists gathered outside the Italian Embassy in Cairo on the afternoon of Feb. 6 to pay respects to slain Italian doctoral student Giulio Regeni.
There was a heavy security presence in the small area that had been cordoned off by the police for the silent vigil. Security officers, many in plainclothes, watched nervously as the mourners laid wreaths and lit candles as a tribute to the 28-year-old researcher whose brutal killing sent shock waves across Egypt and the world.
“The Egyptian regime clearly does not want any witnesses to the atrocities committed by the security forces against government critics on a near-daily basis,” said Angela, an Italian writer and researcher who wanted to be identified only by her first name for reasons of personal safety. She added that foreign journalists and researchers, in particular, were no longer welcome in Egypt “as they are the ones who document the abuses.”
Angela, who has lived in Egypt for the last four years, told Al-Monitor that it was becoming increasingly difficult for her to do her work.
“I am particularly worried about the safety of my Egyptian colleagues. They are the ones most at risk,” she lamented.
An Egyptian activist standing behind Angela raised a sign reading, “Why kill foreigners? Aren’t we enough for you?”
Another held a placard with the message, “Those who killed Giulio are the same murderers who kill Egyptians.”
The messages in English, Arabic and Italian suggested that the security forces were behind Regeni’s death. The Egyptian authorities had stepped up a crackdown on dissent in the weeks leading up to Jan. 25, the day marking the fifth anniversary of the uprising that toppled President Hosni Mubarak. Hundreds of apartments in downtown Cairo were raided by the police, and several “suspects” were arrested and later charged with “inciting protests.” Rights groups and opposition activists accuse the security forces of detaining hundreds of activists without reporting their arrests, citing at least 340 cases of forced disappearances within a span of four months (August to November 2015). El Nadeem Centre for Rehabilitation of Victims of Violence, an Egyptian rights group, recently published a report saying there were 66 cases of forced disappearances just last month. Meanwhile, the International Federation for Human Rights, a coalition of 178 nongovernmental organizations, said in a report published to coincide with the anniversary of the 2011 uprising, “Five years on, Egypt is witnessing an unprecedented deterioration in the status of human rights in its modern history.” According to the movement, at least 41,000 people have been detained, charged or sentenced since July 2013, when Islamist President Mohammed Morsi was overthrown by the military following mass protests.
Regeni mysteriously disappeared Jan. 25, prompting an online campaign to bring attention to his case by worried colleagues and activists who used the hashtag #WhereIsGiulio? He was last seen at a metro station near his home in Cairo’s Dokki neighborhood and had reportedly been heading to meet a friend in a downtown cafe. His badly mutilated body was found on the side of a highway on the outskirts of Cairo on Feb. 3, nine days after his disappearance. Naked from the waist down, the body showed clear signs of torture, including cigarette burns, bruises and multiple stab wounds, leading the senior prosecutor for the Giza district to conclude that he had “died a slow and painful death.” Angelino Alfano, the Italian interior minister, confirmed the claim after a second autopsy was conducted in Italy. Alfano told Italian media that Regeni appeared to have suffered. Alfano told Italian media that Regeni appeared to have suffered “an inhuman, animal-like violence before his death.”
Some Italian media suggested that the fact that Regeni had had his nails pulled out indicates he may have been suspected by Egyptian security forces of being a spy, and hence, “worthy of such inhumane treatment.”
Egypt has witnessed a surge in xenophobia since the 2011 uprising with Egyptian media often warning against “foreigners seeking to foment unrest.” The media has also been rife with conspiracy theories of “foreign powers seeking to destroy the nation.” The oft-repeated statements by some state officials and government loyalists in the media have prompted mob attacks on several foreign journalists. In recent weeks, an American who had been studying Arabic in Cairo was taken into police custody after informants reported him to the police for allegedly inciting protests. He had been having a discussion with some Egyptian young people in a downtown Cairo cafe. He was later deported.
The authorities have also been particularly wary of researchers: Ismail Eskandarani, a researcher who specialized in Sinai affairs, was arrested at the airport on his arrival in Hurghada on Dec. 1, and has since been charged with belonging to an outlawed group and spreading misinformation to tarnish Egypt’s image. Atef Boutros, an Egyptian-German researcher, was last month barred entry into the country by airport security on grounds that he was a “threat to national security.” Regeni’s research had focused on labor movements, a sensitive topic to the authorities: The 2008 labor strikes in Mehalla were believed to have been the first spark of the mass uprising that erupted three years later. He had reportedly been in touch with trade unionists and opposition activists.
While Egyptian activists, Islamists and the Italian media support the argument that police may have had a role in Regeni’s death, Egyptian government officials and regime supporters offer an alternative narrative. At a press conference Feb. 8, Egypt’s Interior Minister Magdi Abdel Ghaffar rejected the accusations against the police, saying that “such rumors are unacceptable.”
“This is not our policy,” he noted, adding, “Egyptian security agencies are known for their integrity and transparency.” He suggested that a criminal act may have caused Regeni’s death. Earlier, some Egyptian media quoted another police source — the head of investigations at the Giza police department — as saying that Regeni had most likely died in a car accident and that no foul play was suspected.
While it may be best for all parties to refrain from speculating who the likely killers may be — at least until the results of the investigation are announced — Regeni’s friends in Cairo worry that they may never know for certain who was responsible for his death.
A friend of Regeni's told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "We have seen on several occasions security officials reluctant to reveal truths that they believe may be damaging to the country's reputation. Nothing can tarnish Egypt’s image more than lack of transparency. Any attempts to withhold facts or hide truths may cause Egypt to lose a valuable ally [Italy]," she warned.
Another friend agreed, saying, "What we need right now is to strengthen confidence between the people and the authorities.”

Airbus deal takeoff irks Iranian hard-liners
Rohollah Faghihi/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
TEHRAN, Iran — Many Iranians welcomed President Hassan Rouhani’s recent tour of Italy and France, during which billions of dollars in deals — including the purchase of 118 new Airbus passenger jets — were hammered out. However, the hard-liners in Iran have been raging against the tour, considering it a major humiliation.
The first salvo came from historian Hussein Dehbashi, a critic of Rouhani, who penned a post on his Facebook page in which he slammed the Iranian president for appearing in a room dominated by a giant bronze statue of Marcus Aurelius at his joint press conference with the Italian prime minister. “[Roman Emperor] Marcus Aurelius [161-180] defeated Iranians in the era of the Parthian Empire. Why did the advisers of President Rouhani not pay attention to that?” Dehbashi wrote. Hard-line outlets warmly welcomed this censure, following Dehbashi’s lead in attacking Rouhani.
“The West is seriously concerned about Iran becoming a regional power, and namely the expansion of Iran’s strategic depth in Iraq and Syria. What kind of message would this send to people when Rouhani is inking contracts in Rome and under the hooves of the horse of Marcus Aurelius, who took a part of Iraq and the Levant from the Parthians?” the hard-line Nasim news agency wrote.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Quds newspaper argued that Marcus Aurelius didn’t conquer modern-day Iran and never set foot in the Parthian Empire, but merely dispatched an army that succeeded in taking over Seleucia — a city on the Tigris that was a major Mesopotamian city of the Seleucid, Parthian and Sassanid empires. Quds further explained that after a while, a contagious disease forced the Romans to leave.
Fayaz Zahed, a political analyst, told Al-Monitor, “It is highly unlikely that the Italian government, which did its best to observe protocol during President Rouhani’s trip, would try to disparage Iran by forcing Rouhani to stand next to a statue. They even covered the nude statues, which is a part of their identity, just to respect Iran’s president.” He added, “This is just a propaganda war [waged] by Rouhani’s opponents. It is funny that we didn’t even hear a peep from them when [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad sat under the tableau of the fake name of the Arabian Gulf.”
The next attack by hard-liners came when Rouhani left Rome for Paris. Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, officially welcomed Iran’s president at the Les Invalides complex. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hard-line daily Kayhan, told Iranian media, “Rouhani humiliated the Iranian nation by agreeing to be welcomed by the French foreign minister.” Iranian state television, which is controlled by hard-liners, also expressed wonder and astonishment over this matter.
Despite the ruckus, it was later revealed by moderate Iranian media outlets that Rouhani was in fact welcomed at the highest possible level in France, as the Jordanian and Spanish kings were also welcomed by the premier and foreign minister during their visits to Paris.
In an article published by Iranian news outlet Entekhab, law researcher and Al-Monitor contributor Reza Nasri wrote that French President Francois Hollande not only welcomed Rouhani at the Perron de l'Elysee in the presence of the Garde Republicaine, but also rolled out the red carpet and walked down the steps in his honor. In Nasri’s telling, the manner in which the French president welcomed his Iranian counterpart was above and beyond the common standard.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also responded to the criticism of the French reception of Rouhani: “The French government observed the highest protocols during President Rouhani’s trip to Paris. I’m really ashamed that some people with the very aim of proscription are saying that the French foreign minister received our president in an unusual manner. You should see who received the Indian prime minister or even Mr. Putin in France. Do we also welcome a foreign official before the formal welcoming by the president? Why do you try to turn our pride into humiliation?”
While in France, Rouhani signed a $25 billion deal with Airbus to buy 118 passenger jets and also a $430 million contract with carmaker Peugeot. The ink on both deals was barely dry when other Iranian hard-liners furiously attacked the Iranian president for signing such agreements. The head of the paramilitary Basij, Mohammad Reza Naghdi, accused Rouhani of hurting the “resistance economy” by signing contracts in France and Italy. “Buying aircraft from Airbus has imposed a cost of 128 billion [dollars] for Iran, and this will be of no help for resolving the unemployment issue in our country.” Moreover, Hossein Safar Haranadi, a former culture minister under ex-President Ahmadinejad, said, “Is signing a contract with Peugeot our priority? I have heard that Peugeot’s workers who had been laid off celebrated the [nuclear] deal after hearing about the contract. But our workers in Iran are currently sad.”
In response to the criticism, Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri said, “It is unfair to the supreme leader to say that President Rouhani’s visit to France and Italy was a stab in the back of the resistance economy.” Jahangiri then described the critics of Rouhani’s efforts in his first European visit since taking office as the same people who opposed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of July 14, 2015. “During the nuclear talks, these guys used to say that it is not possible to reach an agreement and witness the lifting of sanctions,” he said.
With attention on the warm reception of his European tour by many Iranians, it seems that Rouhani is buying planes to make people really feel the post-sanctions era that has been brought about after the nuclear deal. In addition, the deals inked in Europe will help Rouhani attract more votes for moderates in the upcoming parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections and keep people away from the hard-liners, who oppose such contracts and are held accountable for the sanctions.
Zahed said, “The purchase of 118 aircraft by Rouhani was a symbolic move, because any time a plane crashed in Iran, people would blame the sanctions.” He added, “We shouldn’t expect hard-liners to welcome Rouhani’s success. They are upset, because Rouhani’s achievement may lead the moderates and Reformists to gain victory in the parliamentary elections, and more importantly, it may guarantee a second term for Rouhani.”

Turkey gives mixed signals on Syria
Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/February 10/16
As developments in Syria spin out of Turkey’s control, Ankara is sending mixed signals as to what it will do to regain the initiative to address its growing security concerns and deal with the fresh refugee crisis it is facing after the successful Syrian-Russian onslaught in northern Syria.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan added fuel to the fire over the weekend when he said Turkey should not repeat the mistake in Syria that it made in Iraq in 2003. He was referring to the refusal by the Turkish parliament to allow the United States to use Turkish territory to invade Iraq at the time.
Erdogan claimed that if the parliament had not refused permission, “the situation in Iraq would not be what it is today and Turkey would have a place at the table.”
Erdogan, who was talking to reporters on his way back from his Latin American tour, said that “matters in Syria could only be allowed to go so far,” and that Turkey had to protect its interests. “At the moment we are prepared for any eventuality with all our security forces,” he said.
His remarks follow Russian claims that Turkey is preparing to invade Syria.
"We have serious grounds to suspect Turkey is in intensive preparations for an armed invasion of the territory of a sovereign state — the Syrian Arab Republic," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Feb. 4.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s office dismissed the claim as “propaganda.” An unidentified official source told CNN that Turkey is not preparing such an invasion, and that Russia, which as a country that had already invaded Syria, was trying to divert attention from its attacks against civilians in that country.
Reuters also cited a senior Turkish official who denied the Russian claim. "Turkey is part of a coalition, is working with its allies and will continue to do so. As we have repeatedly said, Turkey will not act unilaterally," the official said.
Despite war drums by the pro-Erdogan media for a military operation in Syria, most analysts agree this is not feasible given the present complexity in Syria where too many interests are clashing.
Openly reflecting his annoyance over continuing US support for the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the People's Protections Units (YPG), Erdogan also issued what sounded like a challenge to Washington to choose between the PYD/YPG and Turkey.
The recent visit by US presidential envoy Brett McGurk to the Kurdish-held town of Kobani in Syria, where he met PYD officials, raised Ankara’s hackles.
“He went to Kobani and received a plaque from a supposed general just as the Geneva talks were about to begin. How are we to trust them? Am I your partner or the terrorists in Kobani?” Erdogan complained.
McGurk’s visit to Kobani came immediately after Turkey forced the United States to acquiesce to keeping the PYD out of the Geneva talks on Syria. This visit showed, however, that Washington will not desert the PYD.
This was also confirmed by State Department spokesman John Kirby at his daily briefing Feb. 8.
“We see Kurdish fighters on the ground that have been successful against Daesh as an important partner in this fight,” Kirby said when asked if the United States sees the PYD as an ally or partner. “Daesh,” the name Islamic countries use for the Islamic State, is also used by the United States.
Despite the obvious difficulties, Erdogan’s supporters in the media are trying to drum up support for an intervention in Syria by arguing that if Turkey does not do this now, it will pay a high price in the future by seeing its own territorial integrity compromised.
Ibrahim Karagul, the editor-in-chief of the pro-government daily Yeni Safak, believes “it is time for Turkey to confront some bitter facts,” arguing in his column that “Turkey should not and will not accept” a situation in Syria that is against its interests.
“Turkey must intervene directly in the Syrian affair. This includes a military operation. If Iran and Russia, whose arguments for intervening are so feeble, can enter this country, bomb regions along our borders, expel Syrians to Turkey and hit Turkey from Syria, then Turkey has much more realistic reasons [to intervene],” Karagul wrote Feb. 4.
Daily Hurriyet’s Tolga Tanis, however, believes that recent developments clearly show Turkey’s Syria policy has totally collapsed both militarily and politically.
“Ankara has no instruments left in its hand that it can use,” Tanis, who is also Hurriyet’s Washington representative, wrote Feb. 7. He said Turkey had also lost leverage with Washington because of the “erosion in confidence” it had created with its policies.
Tanis said US officials “never considered talk about a land operation by Turkey in Syria to be realistic,” especially while Russia is waiting for an opportunity to avenge the downing of its fighter jet by the Turkish air force in November 2015.
Al-Monitor asked Maj. Gen. Armagan Kuloglu (R) for his political-military take on Erdogan’s remarks and the likelihood of a Turkish intervention in Syria. He said that Erdogan’s views with regard to Turkey’s barring the United States from invading Iraq over its territory in 2003 did not compare in any way with the situation in Syria.
“The operation in Iraq was to remove Saddam [Hussein]. The aim was clear. In Syria it is not clear who will intervene against whom and to what end,” Kuloglu said. “Neither is it clear who we would be collaborating with. There is no UN-sanctioned coalition. Nor is there a US-led coalition of the willing, as was the case in Iraq,” he added.
Kuloglu also regarded with skepticism statements by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states that they are willing to send troops to Syria. “The same question arises here. Who would they intervene against? The regime, IS, the PYD? Who?” Kuloglu asked. He also discounted any possibility that Turkey could intervene in Syria unilaterally.
“All the talk that implies that Turkey is prepared to intervene in Syria is for a domestic audience,” Kuloglu concluded.

Relative Of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad Curses Him In Open Letter: You Are A Traitor; May Allah Kill You
MEMRI/February 10/16/ Special Dispatch No.6298
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/02/10/memri-relative-of-syrian-president-bashar-al-assad-curses-him-in-open-letter-you-are-a-traitor-may-allah-kill-you/
Majd Jadaan – the sister-in-law of Maher Al-Assad, the brother of Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad – is currently a refugee in Jordan and is known as a fierce opponent of Bashar and supporter of the Syrian revolution. On December 1, 2015, she published on the Syrian oppositionist website Souriyati.com an article rife with invective towards Bashar, in which she called him a traitor, an enemy of humanity, a devil, a murderer and a terrorist. She accused him of destroying Syria and massacring its people, and expressed a belief that he would be end up "in history's filthiest garbage heap" and that the Syrian revolution would triumph.
The following are excerpts from the article:
"O, Bashar Al-Assad - you will be written about in the annals of history... It will be written that you were the son of the devil, that you murdered children, the elderly, and youths; that you destroyed [mosque] minarets, bombed churches, and burned the [Muslim] crescent and [Christian] cross. It will be written that you betrayed, stole, and hawked, and that you enlisted the assistance of the enemies against [Syria's] residents. They will say that you were a pathetic soldier who behaved towards people like a wild animal. It will be written in history that Homs asked Allah to rescue it from you, that Aleppo sought refuge from you and from the devil, that Douma became a sea of blood without beaches, and that, in the age of your betrayal, Syrians were left without homes, schools, or bakeries; without hospitals and without a homeland. It will all be written – but what will never be written is what you and your family falsely claim [about yourselves]. History has already removed the mask from your [face] and theirs… Allah's curse be upon you until the Day of Judgement, Allah's curse be upon you until the Day of Judgement. Allah's curse be upon you.
"I believed that the world would support you to maintain the ideological balance of power in the world. [But] it took me a while to grasp the ugly truth about you, to understand that you are nothing but a lowly, despicable, traitorous soldier, [and] that the entire world toyed with you in order to realize interests that it would have never dreamed of achieving had you and your family not been the lowliest and most savage [creatures] created by Allah… Allah's curse be upon you and those by your side until the Day of Judgement. No woman has ever birthed a lowly traitor like you.
“You boast of the support you receive from those who are even lowlier than you. [But it is] we who will boast when they throw you into history's filthiest garbage heap once they have realized their interests by using the cruelty and despicable [nature] of you and those by your side. Allah's curse be upon you and upon them. Despite your and their [actions], Syria is free and will remain free." "True, nations have invaded us – but who opened the door to them, allowing them to invade? Only [you], my greatest enemy and Syria's greatest enemy, the cursed devil, the lowly soldier, the evil murderer, the chief hit man, the savage terrorist, the enemy of Allah and of humanity. May Allah kill you, O murderer. Allah's curse be upon you until the Day of Judgment.
"Does your honor[1] see what he is doing? Are you pleased with the murder of the Syrian people, with the destruction of free Syria and with the opening of its doors to everyone and his brother? Who will continue considering you a leader when you have become a willing slave of ones who are stronger than you? History has not known a more despicable and disgraceful person than you... "May Allah kill you, O you who have hurt the honorable and fed upon the interests of the despicable. May Allah kill you, O you who have expelled the most glorious nation and destroyed the most beautiful homeland...
"O Ghouta [a region near Damascus], forgive us and curse [Assad] and his supporters. O Homs, forgive us. O Aleppo, forgive us. O free Syria, forgive us, for their wickedness has exceeded all our predictions. [But our] strength and our will have exceeded all their predictions.
"It is we who will triumph, as well as truth and divide justice, no matter how long it takes. Syria will be free, free, free."
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/9002.htm
Endnotes:
[1] The author deliberately misspells the word "your honor" in Arabic to express her contempt for Assad.