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Bible Quotations For Today
Unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much fruit
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 12/23-30: "Jesus answered them, ‘The hour has come for the Son of Man to be glorified. Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much fruit. Those who love their life lose it, and those who hate their life in this world will keep it for eternal life.Whoever serves me must follow me, and where I am, there will my servant be also. Whoever serves me, the Father will honour. ‘Now my soul is troubled. And what should I say "Father, save me from this hour"? No, it is for this reason that I have come to this hour. Father, glorify your name.’ Then a voice came from heaven, ‘I have glorified it, and I will glorify it again.’The crowd standing there heard it and said that it was thunder. Others said, ‘An angel has spoken to him.’Jesus answered, ‘This voice has come for your sake, not for mine.

Indeed, all who want to live a godly life in Christ Jesus will be persecuted
Second Letter to Timothy 03/10-17: "You have observed my teaching, my conduct, my aim in life, my faith, my patience, my love, my steadfastness, my persecutions, and my suffering the things that happened to me in Antioch, Iconium, and Lystra. What persecutions I endured! Yet the Lord rescued me from all of them. Indeed, all who want to live a godly life in Christ Jesus will be persecuted. But wicked people and impostors will go from bad to worse, deceiving others and being deceived. But as for you, continue in what you have learned and firmly believed, knowing from whom you learned it, and how from childhood you have known the sacred writings that are able to instruct you for salvation through faith in Christ Jesus. All scripture is inspired by God and is useful for teaching, for reproof, for correction, and for training in righteousness, so that everyone who belongs to God may be proficient, equipped for every good work.".

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 09/16
Lebanon, Maronities And Saint Maroun/ Elias Bejjani/February 09/16
Michel Aoun sends envoy to Iran/Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/February 8, 201
Iran Infiltrates the West Bank/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/February 08/16
The Real Cost of Nuclear Deterrence/Peter Huessy/Gatestone Institute/February 08/16
Is Russia helping the US win in Syria/Week in Review/Al-Monitor/February 08/16
Islam’s Sword Comes for Christians: Muslim Persecution of Christians, December 2015
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 8, 2016
Geneva talks died when Russia entered the war/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/February 08/16
Morocco’s attempt to reform Islamic teachings could impact the world/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 08/16
The man King Faisal served in the U.S./Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 08/16
The goals of Washington and Moscow in the Syrian War/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/February 08/16

Lebanon, Maronities And Saint Maroun
From Elias Bejjani's AchieveFebruary 09/16
Fouad Afram Boustani, (1904- 1994), the Lebanese Maronite historian described the Maronite denomination as, a faith of intelligence, an identification of life, a solid belief in Catholicism, a love for others, an ongoing struggle for righteousness, a mentality of openness on the whole world, and on its different civilizations, and a vehicle for martyrdom. The Maronites established the state of Lebanon and made it an oasis for the persecuted in the middle East. They believed and practiced multiculturalism and pluralism. They created with the help of other minorities in the Middle East the unique nation of Lebanon.
The Maronites made Lebanon their homeland since the 4th century after converting its native inhabitants to Christianity. They were identified by it, and it was identified by them, they were and still are one entity. The Maronite people were always hopeful, faithful and strong believers in the Christian Catholic doctrine. They made victories of defeats, joy of sorrow and hope of despair. The Maronites successfully created with hard work and a great deal of faith and sacrifices, the Maronite nation by fulfilling its four basic pillars, a land, a people, a civilization and a politically independent entity. They constantly fight for what was theirs, and never ever surrendered to despair.
On the ninth of February for the past 1600 years, Maronites in Lebanon and all over the world have been celebrating the annual commemoration of St. Maroun, the founder of their Christian Catholic denomination.
Every year, on the ninth of February, more than ten million Maronites from all over the world celebrate St. Maroun’s day. On this day, they pay their respect to the great founder of the Maronite Church, Maroun the priest, the hermit, the father, the leader and the Saint. They remember what they have been exposed to, since the 4th century, both good and bad times. They reminisce through the past, examine the present and contemplate the future. They pray for peace, democracy and freedom in Lebanon, their homeland, and all over the world.
Who was this Saint, how did he establish his church, where did he live, and who are his people, the Maronites?
St. Maroun, according to the late great Lebanese philosopher and historian, Fouad Afram Al-Bustani, was raised in the city of Kouroch. This city is located northeast of Antioch (presently in Turkey), and to the northwest of Herapolos (Manbieg), the capital of the third Syria (Al-Furatia). Kouroch is still presently in existence in Turkey, it is located 15 kilometers to the northwest of Kalas city, and about 70 kilometers to the north of the Syrian city, Aleppo.
As stated by the historians, Father Boutrous Daou and Fouad Fram Bustani, Maroun chose a very high location at the Semaan Mountain (called in the past, Nabo Mountain, after the pagan god, Nabo). Geographically, the Semaan Mountain is located between Antioch and Aleppo. People had abandoned the mountain for years, and the area was completely deserted.
The ruins of a historic pagan temple that existed on the mountain attracted Maroun. Boustan stated that St. Maroun moved to this mountain and decided to follow the life of a hermit. He made the ruined temple his residence after excoriating it from devils, but used it only for masses and offerings of the holy Eucharist. He used to spend all his time in the open air, praying, fasting and depriving his body from all means of comfort. He became very famous in the whole area for his faith, holiness and power of curing. Thousands of believers came to him seeking help and advice.
St. Maroun, was an excellent knowledgeable preacher and a very stubborn believer in Christ and in Christianity. He was a mystic who started a new ascetic-spiritual method that attracted many people from all over the Antiochian Empire. He was a zealous missionary with a passion to spread the message of Christ by preaching it to others. He sought not only to cure the physical ailments that people suffered, but had a great quest for nurturing and healing the "lost souls" of both pagans and Christians of his time. Maroun’s holiness and countless miracles drew attention throughout the Antiochian Empire. St. John of Chrysostom sent him a letter around 405 AD expressing his great love and respect asking St. Maroun to pray for him.
St. Maroun's way was deeply monastic with emphasis on the spiritual and ascetic aspects of living. For him, all was connected to God and God was connected to all. He did not separate the physical and spiritual world and actually used the physical world to deepen his faith and spiritual experience with God. St. Maroun embraced the quiet solitude of the Semaan Mountain life. He lived in the open air exposed to the forces of nature such as sun, rain, hail and snow. His extraordinary desire to come to know God’s presence in all things allowed him to transcend such forces, and discover an intimate union with God. He was able to free himself from the physical world by his passion and eagerness for prayer and enter into a mystical relationship of love with the creator.
St. Maroun attracted hundreds of monks and priests who came to live with him and become his disciples and loyal Christian followers. Maroun’s disciples preached the Bible in the Antiochan Empire (known at the present time as Syria), Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Israel, They built hundreds of Churches and abbeys as well as schools and were known for their faith, devotion and perseverance.
At the age of seventy, in the year 410 AD, and after completing his holy mission, St. Maroun died peacefully while surrounded by his disciples and followers. His will was to be buried in the same grave with his beloved teacher, the great monk, Zabena, in the town of Kena, next to Kouroch city, where a temple was built in Zabena’s name. St. Maroun’s will was not fulfilled, because the residents of a nearby town were able to take his body and bury him in their town and build a huge church on his grave. This church was a shrine for Christians for hundreds of years, and its ruins are still apparent in that town.
After Maroun’s death, his disciples built a huge monastery in honor of his name, adjacent to the ornate spring, (Naher Al-Assi, located at the Syrian-Lebanese border). The monastery served for hundreds of years as a pillar for faith, education, martyrhood and holiness. It was destroyed at the beginning of the tenth century that witnessed the worst Christian persecution era. During the savage attack on the monastery more than 300 Maronite priests were killed. The surviving priests moved to the mountains of Lebanon where with the Marada people and the native Lebanese were successful in establishing the Maronite nation. They converted the Lebanese mountains to a fortress of faith and a symbol for martyrhood, endurance and perseverance.
Initially the Maronite movement reached Lebanon when St. Maroun's first disciple Abraham of Cyrrhus, who was called the Apostle of Lebanon, realized that paganism was thriving in Lebanon, so he set out to convert the pagans to Christianity by introducing them to the way of St. Maroun. St. Maroun is considered to be the Father of the spiritual and monastic movement now called the Maronite Church. This movement had a profound influence on northern Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus and on many other countries all over the world where the Maronites currently live. The biggest Maronite community at the present time lives in Brazil. More than six million Lebanese descendents made Brazil their home after the massive emigration that took place from Lebanon in the beginning of this century.
God Bless all those who struggle for freedom and liberty all over the world.

Michel Aoun sends envoy to Iran
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/February 8, 2016
Beirut: On the heels of his declaration that Hezbollah defends Lebanon by fighting in Syria, and according to the Kuwaiti daily Al Anba, the Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun dispatched Jean Aziz, a media adviser and an OTV presenter, to Iran for “discussions” about his presidential candidacy.
It was unclear why Aoun sought Iranian clearance especially since he and all March 8 tenors blamed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for obstructing the elections. Many wondered whether the Aziz visit was coordinated with Hezbollah, Iran’s nominal force in the country, to reassure that Aoun would remain faithful to the FPM-Hezbollah Mar Mikhail Memorandum of Understanding of February 6, 2006 instead of applying the 10-point accord signed on January 18, 2016 with the Lebanese Forces, a rival Christian party. On Monday, and ahead of the scheduled 35th parliamentary session to elect a head-of-state, Speaker Nabih Berri described the announced Hezbollah boycott as “democratic” though he urged rival candidates — Aoun, Marada Movement chief Sulaiman Franjieh and the Progressive Socialist Party candidate Henri Helou — to compete for the post by heading to parliament. “The boycott of parliamentary electoral and non-electoral sessions is a democratic and constitutional right adopted in parliaments in all countries, including the United States,” Berri informed his visitors on Sunday, though his physical absence from most of the 35 sessions was well noted too. Lebanon has been without a president since May 24, 2014, when Michel Sulaiman ended his term of office without the election of a successor. Amid mammoth electoral disputes, discussions heated up on a government proposal to increase the price of gasoline and, nearly nine months after Lebanese leaders created a “trash” crisis, a contract between “Monday and Wednesday” to export tonnes of accumulated garbage. Meanwhile, and already at odds on just about every contention on account of personal interests, rival parliamentarians entertained a 5,000 Lebanese lira (Dh12.2) increase for gasoline, which would be added to the regular price that hovered around 20,000 lira (Dh48.7) for twenty litres. The proposal was a significant financial burden though growing deficits required new taxes. Whether this hotly debated proposal will be implemented was impossible to know even if the state required new revenues to cover huge deficits. One of the most critical new expenses will be the large amounts — estimated at over $250 per tonne — devoted to exporting trash. According to Agriculture Minister Akram Chehayeb, some of the accumulated garbage will be exported before the end of the month. A British firm, Chinook Urban Mining International, will apparently export garbage that is less than 45 days old to Russia, though where the remainder would go was still kept under wraps, even if few could figure out how the age of the accumulated garbage will be determined. For now, and beyond the price associated with these exports, the Lebanese were wary of serious health hazards. For the #YouStink movement and other civil society groups, the deadliest disease in the country was the political variety that added barriers to well-honed sectarian performances.

Presidential Elections Postponed again as Harb Calls for Amendment that Forces MPs to Attend Polls
Naharnet/February 08/16/The 35th session to elect a president was postponed on Monday following a lack of quorum at parliament as officials voiced their ongoing disappointment with some blocs' boycott of the polls. Speaker Nabih Berri scheduled a new electoral session for March 2. Telecommunications Minister Butros Harb lamented after the failed meeting the current state of democracy in Lebanon, calling for an amendment to the constitution that forces lawmakers to attend the polls. “We are studying an amendment that would obligate MPs to attend elections otherwise risk losing their seat at parliament,” he told reporters. Another amendment calls for a head of state to remain in his post until a new president is elected in order to avert a prolonged vacuum similar to the one Lebanon is witnessing, he revealed. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. Some observers were optimistic that a head of state would have been elected during Monday's session following Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea's endorsement of his longtime rival Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun as president. Over the weekend however, Hizbullah, Aoun's main ally, announced that its lawmakers will not attend the electoral session unless an agreement is reached to elect the MP. Harb condemned this approach, saying sarcastically that parliament should only serve as a place of celebration where it would celebrate any political agreement that is made in advance. Monday's electoral session saw the attendance of 38 March 14 alliance MPs, 13 from the March 8 alliance, and seven independent figures. Head of the Kataeb Party MP Sami Gemayel said after the electoral session: “It is time that we adhere to democracy.”“Not everyone can win in politics as it is about winning and losing,” he noted.“Democracy has existed in Lebanon for 80 years and we are now burying it and harming the Lebanese people,” he said.LF MP Georges Adwan later stressed that the party “is seeking rapprochement between Aoun and the Mustaqbal Movement,” while noting that “Hizbullah must reach an understanding with Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh.”Franjieh is also running for the presidency.

Gasoline Tax Debate Heats up
Naharnet/February 08/16/Discussions are heating up about a proposal to increase the price of gasoline, a move that will likely aggravate the differences between the rival parliamentary blocs and parties. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil told As Safir daily on Monday that his ministry has not taken any final decision to increase the price of gasoline by about LL5,000. Twenty liters of gasoline is currently selling at about LL20,000 as as result of a global slide in oil prices. Khalil said any proposal to increase prices should come from the energy ministry. “The finance ministry will later study the issue and set the economic and social effects that could entail.” Speaker Nabih Berri's visitors also asked him about his stance from such a proposal. He rejected a LL5,000 increase on prices but said imposing a LL3,000 tax was negotiable. Berri warned that the state's fiscal situation is difficult and that the country is in dire need of appropriations in several sectors. Al-Mustaqbal bloc leader MP Fouad Saniora, who was the first to propose the increase, told As Safir that al-Mustaqbal would reject an additional tax if the Finance Ministry was able to provide the treasury with its needs. But he warned Khalil, saying: “He should know that if he didn't tell the truth, then the issue will blow up in his face.”Saniora told the newspaper that when he was Finance Minister he acted for the public's interest without having the intention to gain popular support. But Khalil threw the ball in the government's court, saying only the cabinet is entitled to set the country's strategic financial choices and to decide on the source of new revenues if it approved to increase spending. As Safir also asked the head of the parliamentary appropriations committee, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, about the proposal to increase gasoline prices. Kanaan said his bloc disagrees with Saniora on the issue, adding it is not permissible to put more taxes on citizens every time the state needs more revenues. The lawmaker also rejected to put on citizens the burdens of failed policies. “Only the state budget can provide us with an estimate on the needed revenues … Anything other than that is a trap to impose more random taxes on the people,” he said. Economy Minister Alain Hakim also expressed a similar opinion, telling al-Liwaa newspaper that he would vote against any decision to impose more taxes on citizens even if they amounted to LL500.
Ending corruption would help improve the country's financial situation, he said.

Berri Says Boycott 'Democratic' but Candidates should Head to Parliament
Naharnet/February 08/16/Speaker Nabih Berri has described the boycott of parliamentary sessions as “democratic” but urged the rival candidates to compete for the country's top Christian post by heading to the parliament. “The boycott of parliamentary electoral and non-electoral sessions is a democratic and constitutional right adopted in parliaments in all countries, including the United States,” Berri told his visitors in Ain el-Tineh. “But the presidential election has a national trend,” Berri, whose remarks were published in local dailies on Monday, said. The speaker also told his visitors that the three main candidates – Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun, Marada Movement chief lawmaker Suleiman Franjieh and MP Henri Helou – should compete democratically at the parliament. Berri's comments came amid a parliamentary session that will most likely fail to elect a president over a lack of quorum. He said the members of his bloc will be in parliament on Monday as they have done with previous sessions. Differences between the rival blocs grew last month when Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea endorsed his long-time rival MP Aoun. Al-Mustaqbal Movement chief Saad Hariri continued to hold onto the candidacy of Franjieh while Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat said he will not let go of centrist candidate MP Helou. Their differences will fail to guarantee the needed quorum to elect a president.

Akkar Students Stab Teacher after Harassment Complaint
Naharnet/February 08/16/Two Lebanese students and a Syrian on Monday stabbed a teacher in the northern district of Akkar after a harassment complaint by female students, the state-run National News Agency reported. NNA said Abdullah M., the teacher at the Shadra technical school, informed police in the town of Mashta Hassan that Lebanese Y.D. and Z.D. and Syrian Samer A. assaulted him and then stabbed him. He claimed that the attack took place after he confronted the three assailants for harassing the girls in the bus that he was driving, said the agency. The two Lebanese students hail from Mashta Hammoud while the teacher hails from al-Muqaibleh. NNA did not say how serious the teacher's injuries were.

Ali Fayad's Family Protests his Detention
Naharnet/February 08/16/The family of Ali Fayad, who was part of a prisoner swap which saw the release of five kidnapped Czechs in Lebanon, held on Monday a sit-in in Beirut to call for his freedom. Fayad was arrested in Beirut last week after he was released by the Czech authorities, which refused to extradite him to the U.S. to face weapons charges. His release was part of a swap, which gave five Czechs, who were kidnapped in the eastern Bekaa valley in July last year, their freedom. The family of Fayad, also known as Ali Amin, held the sit-in near Beirut's Justice Palace, asking for his release and calling for justice. Prague's Municipal Court allowed the extradition of Fayad and two citizens of Ivory Coast last year but Czech Justice Minister Robert Pelikan has the final say and on Thursday refused to extradite them.The three were arrested in Prague 2014 while allegedly trying to sell weapons to undercover U.S. law enforcement agents who pretended to be from a Colombian terrorist group.

Kaag Sounds Presidential Vacuum Alarm Bell
Naharnet/February 08/16/U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Sigrid Kaag warned against the negative effects of the presidential vacuum, saying it would be too late to save the country. “It is difficult to see the institutions and the economy wearing out” as a result of the vacuum at Baabda Palace, Kaag told An Nahar newspaper in an interview published on Monday. She said that “Lebanon's stability should not be taken for granted.”“Lebanon should not be left to slide more or else it will be too late to save it,” she said. “This is not a game or a joke.”Asked if she thought foreign diplomatic pressure could be exerted to resolve Lebanon's presidential deadlock, she said: “This is not the U.N.'s mission and I don't think diplomatic pressure is the right means.”The international community believes that the Lebanese people should solve the crisis that erupted following the end of the tenure of former President Michel Suleiman in May 2014, she said. “It is important for Lebanon not to waste time because it could pay a heavy price at several levels,” Kaag warned. “It is unhealthy for a democratic country to get used to the vacuum in the presidency, which is an important post for the Christian sect and for the entire country,” she said. Her comments came as the rival lawmakers are set to elect a new president. But Monday's parliamentary session will be similar to its predecessor.Speaker Nabih Berri is expected to adjourn it over lack of quorum.
Fathali: Iran Not Interfering in Presidential Issue, Foreign Meddling Complicates Problem
Naharnet/February 08/16/Iran is not interfering in the issue of Lebanon's presidential elections and “foreign meddling” will only aggravate the crisis, Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Fathali announced on Monday. “We do not interfere in any way whatsoever in the Lebanese domestic affairs, especially in the presidential issue,” Fathali told a group of reporters at the embassy during a reception marking Iran's 1979 revolution. “Solutions must be addressed in Lebanon without foreign meddling, because this foreign meddling will complicate the problem, and we believe that the Lebanese political capabilities can find the efficient solutions to all problems in Lebanon,” he added. “The Islamic Republic acts in a very transparent manner that is acknowledged by both its friends and foes and those accusing us must submit evidence proving our interference,” the ambassador went on to say. Lebanon has been without a president since the term of Michel Suleiman ended on May 25, 2014 due to political disputes and electoral rivalry among the parties. Last month, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whose party is a staunch ally of Tehran, stressed that Iran “has not and will not interfere” in Lebanon's presidential election. “Iran has stressed that the presidential issue is a domestic affair and that it would support what the Lebanese would agree on,” said Nasrallah. Separately, Fathali reiterated Monday his country's willingness to equip the Lebanese army. “Our offer is still on the table, without preconditions and without any demands in return, and the question in this regard must be addressed to the Lebanese side,” the envoy added. “The major sacrifices that Lebanon has offered have led to consolidating the golden army-people-resistance equation and we believe that the sacrifices against the forces of takfir and terrorism will go down in the dear Lebanese people's record of honor,” he went on to say.

Former pop star turned fugitive Islamic militant Fadel Shaker Says Will Only Turn Himself in to 'Just Judiciary', Slams 'Big Criminal' Samaha
Naharnet/February 08/16/Former pop star turned fugitive Islamic militant Fadel Shaker stressed during a TV interview aired on Monday that he will only turn himself in to what he described as a “just judiciary,” reiterating the claim that he was “asleep” when the Abra battle started. “I truly had the intention to turn myself in because I know that I didn't do anything wrong,” Shaker told MTV. “I want to turn myself in, but to whom shall I turn myself in?” he asked. “We do have an upright judiciary and we have just judges who fear God, but let them remove the judges' handcuffs and allow them to issue fair rulings,” Shaker added. Noting that “politics is confining the judiciary,” the fugitive man referred to the recent controversial release from jail of ex-minister Michel Samaha, who is facing terrorist charges.“We have seen the example of how they freed the big criminal Michel Samaha,” Shaker said. “Only God knows what bombings he had been involved in prior to his arrest on charges of smuggling explosives,” he added. Samaha and Syrian security chief Ali Mamluk had been indicted by Lebanon's judiciary with a conspiracy to smuggle explosives into Lebanon with the aim of staging bombings and assassinating political and religious figures. “The Lebanese judiciary must acquit me, seeing as the defense minister, (detained Islamist cleric) Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir and all the detainees in their custody have all said that I'm innocent. What are they still waiting for?” Shaker asked on Monday. Shaker, who has been on the run for nearly three years, has repeatedly denied fighting alongside al-Asir's gunmen in the fierce 2013 clashes with the army in the Sidon suburb of Abra. At least 18 soldiers and dozens of gunmen were killed in the gunbattles. Monday's interview was conducted at a home in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh where Shaker has been residing since the Abra battle. The Lebanese state does not have authority over the country's 12 Palestinian camps. “We took up arms when we started facing threats, provocations and shootings at the hands of Hizbullah's (Resistance) Brigades,” Shaker told MTV, referring to a Hizbullah-affiliated group. “All people know the practices of Hizbullah's brigades and how they assault people without any accountability,” he charged. Shaker also reiterated that he was “asleep” when the Abra battle started and that he had been at odds with al-Asir during that period. Asked to send a message to the families of the army's dead and wounded, he said : “May God have mercy on the army's martyrs and on our martyrs as well, because a third party wronged against them both, and I had nothing to do with the Abra battle.” Though he grew to become one of the Arab world's most famous singers, Shaker suffered through a miserable childhood of poverty, which a onetime musician friend says helped lead him down a dark path later in life. Now in his mid-forties, Shaker was born to a Palestinian mother and Lebanese father. Born Fadel Shmandur, he began his career as a popular wedding singer who performed from the rooftops of the Ain el-Hilweh camp, an over-crowded and hopeless place. In his prime, Shaker sang love songs that were instant region-wide hits. He released his first album in the late nineties, and continued to perform until 2011.

Grenade Hurled at Grocery Store that Sells Liquor in Wadi Khaled
Naharnet/February 08/16/A man was injured Monday when unknown assailants riding a motorcycle hurled a hand grenade at his grocery store that also sells liquor in the northern border region of Wadi Khaled, state-run National News Agency reported. The attackers threw the grenade when the owner, Issa Habib Hanna, was closing the doors of his store in the Wadi Khaled town of al-Buqaiaa, NNA said. The man was rushed to the Our Lady of Peace Hospital in Qobayyat for treatment as a fire sparked by the grenade gutted large parts of the store, the agency added. “Civil Defense crews doused the blaze as security agencies launched a probe to identify the two individuals who staged the grenade attack,” NNA said. Meanwhile, residents of Wadi Khaled issued a statement condemning what they described as “this criminal act against Issa Habib, the owner of a liquor store in al-Buqaiaa.” “We reject this cowardly act and insist on peaceful coexistence and good neighborliness with everyone,” the residents said. They also urged security agencies to “launch an immediate probe, unveil the incident's circumstances and hand the severest penalties to the cowardly perpetrators.”

6-Year-Old Child Dies of H1N1 Virus in South
Naharnet/February 08/16/A six-year-old child has died of the H1N1 virus, or swine flu, in southern Lebanon, state-run National News Agency reported on Monday. The child passed away at a hospital in the southern city of Sidon where he was receiving treatment, NNA said. "He was admitted into the aforementioned hospital a week ago while suffering from the complications of this disease,” the agency added. “He underwent intensive treatment but he was in an advanced stage of the disease,” it said.Meanwhile, Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) identified the child as Hassan Fadi Ollaik, saying he hailed from the southern town of Bourj Qalaway in the Bint Jbeil district. On January 27, NNA had reported that an 18-month-old girl was diagnosed with swine flu at Sidon's state hospital. The hospital's management confirmed that she was suffering from the H1N1 virus, noting that she was receiving the appropriate treatment under the supervision of the health ministry. The child, who hails from the northern district of Akkar, was first admitted to Notre Dame De Secours Hospital in Jbeil after suffering from severe flu-like symptoms, said NNA. A major outbreak of the H1N1 virus sparked a World Health Organization pandemic alert in June 2009, after it emerged from Mexico and the United States. The outbreak killed around 18,500 people in 214 countries. The alert was lifted in August 2010. The so-called swine flu is transmitted between people through inhalation, but not from eating pork-related products, according to health experts.

Gemayel Criticizes Hariri, Geagea for 'Surrendering, Giving Presidency to March 8'
Naharnet/February 08/16/Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel hit out Sunday at al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, accusing them of bowing to the March 8 camp and granting it the country's presidency without an electoral battle. “Geagea and Hariri have committed a mistake by effectively giving the presidency to March 8,” said Gemayel during an interview on al-Jadeed TV. “The competition is now limited to the March 8 camp and there is no balance. What's strange is that two March 14 leaders have decided to back two March 8 leaders and (Hizbullah chief) Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was right when he said that they have won,” he added. “Hariri and Geagea have surrendered after 10 years of perseverance and the offering of martyrs. If a March 8 president is elected, it would be a disastrous development, unless the two candidates decide to change their stances,” Gemayel warned. He was referring to Hariri's proposal of nominating Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency and Geagea's surprising endorsement of the presidential bid of Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, his long-time Christian rival. “I don't understand why we don't try to preserve balance in the country and I call on Geagea and Hariri to explain to the Lebanese what pushed them to cede our decision after 10 years of steadfastness,” Gemayel added, noting that he has not received a “clear answer” from Hariri. “Everyone is justifying this under the political pragmatism slogan. Had we endorsed this approach in 2005, (ex-minister) Pierre (Gemayel) and (MP) Gebran (Tueni) would have been alive now,” Gemayel went on to say, referring to two vocal March 14 figures who were assassinated in 2005 and 2006. Asked about Monday's electoral session, Gemayel stressed that Kataeb will not vote for Aoun or Franjieh, noting that the party might vote for its former chief Amin Gemayel or cast blank votes. “Aoun and Franjieh must accept the democratic game. There are candidates who have declared their nominations and there are parties that have decided to back them, so let them all go to parliament to practice the democratic game,” Gemayel urged. “What would the response of the Syrian opposition and the terrorists there be if a candidate who supports (Syrian President) Bashar Assad becomes president and if the state's official stance becomes supportive of Bashar Assad? They will respond against all Lebanese,” Kataeb's chief warned. “If Lebanon officially enters the Syrian equation, bombings might hit anywhere,” he cautioned. Criticizing Aoun's recent stance on Hizbullah's involvement in the Syrian conflict, Gemayel added: “The president must unify the domestic front and protect it from the outside forces, but Aoun's stance yesterday was supportive of Hizbullah's presence in Syria.”“What will we tell the Lebanese if entire Lebanon becomes implicated in this stance?” he asked. “If a candidate who endorses the Syrian regime's stance becomes president, what would we tell the Sunni community and what extremism we would be sending it to? What would we be committing against the Lebanese who are in the Gulf?” Gemayel added, explaining possible repercussions if a pro-Assad candidate is elected. Turning to Hizbullah's stances, Gemayel said Kataeb is against “Hizbullah's practices.”“Their biggest mistake is their systematic destruction of the democratic life in Lebanon. A civilized country cannot have two arsenals of weapons and two laws and it cannot contain a group monopolizing the decisions of war and peace,” he explained.

Obama Urges Arab World to Set up Inclusive Governments
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/16/U.S. President Barack Obama urged Arab countries on Monday to establish inclusive governments to ensure security in a region rocked by turmoil. "When governments truly invest in their citizens, their education, skills, and health, and universal human rights are upheld, countries are more peaceful, more prosperous and more successful," he told the opening day of the World Government Summit in Dubai. "As we have seen in the tumult across the Middle East and North Africa, when governments do not lift up their citizens, it's a recipe for instability and strife," he said in a video address to the conference. Obama recalled discussing with leaders of the six Arab monarchies of the Gulf at Camp David last year how "true and lasting security requires an inclusive government that serves all citizens". Several Middle East and North African countries have been rocked by a wave of uprisings demanding reforms that started in Tunisia and led to the 2011 Arab Spring. Some of the uprisings, such as those in Syria, Libya and Yemen, have morphed into civil wars prompting the rise of extremists such as the Islamic State jihadist group as well as an exodus of millions of refugees to Europe. The president of the World Bank Group, Jim Yong Kim, echoed Obama at the Dubai summit, urging leaders to "build inclusive governments". "Good governance is the foundation of all development," Kim told participants. "Many parts of the world are becoming more fragile, making quality leadership and good governance ever more important." He called for governments to be "transparent in their actions and fully engage with citizens". "Governments must invest in their people to give them the opportunity to reach their full potential... create business environments that encourage innovation, competition and private sector investments which will in turn create jobs." More than 3,000 participants from 125 countries, including world leaders and top experts, are attending the three-day summit on governance. "Please note, across this region and around the world, those of you who embrace reform and truly invest in the lives of your people will continue to have a partner and friend in the United States," Obama told the forum.

30,000 Syrian Refugees Mass at Turkish Border, Says Turkey PM
Associated Press/Naharnet/February 08/16/Around 30,000 Syrians are at the Turkish border after fleeing a Russia-backed regime offensive on the northern region of Aleppo, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said. With his country facing mounting pressure to open its border, Davutoglu said the refugees would be admitted if need be, although Turkey should not be expected "to shoulder the refugee issue alone." "Around 30,000 Syrians have now massed," the border with northwestern Syria which remains closed, he told a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Davutoglu, whose country is hosting 2.7 million Syrian refugees, said Turkey would take refugees "if necessary." "Obviously, as always, we will provide for our Syrian brothers and accept them when necessary," he said. But he warned: "No one should assume that just because Turkey is taking in all the refugees that it should be expected to shoulder the refugee issue alone." Merkel's visit is aimed at pressing Turkey to make good on pledges to do more to reduce the influx of refugees to Europe. It came as 33 people died off Turkey's coast attempting to reach Greece in two separate tragedies on Tuesday. The Turkish government struck a deal with the EU in November to halt the outflow of refugees, in return for three billion euros ($3.2 billion) in financial assistance. The EU on Wednesday finally reached an agreement on how to finance the deal. But the deal and the onset of winter do not appear to have deterred the migrants, with boats still arriving on the Greek islands daily. Davutoglu said Turkey and Germany would "cooperate better" to make EU's border agency Frontex more efficient.

U.N. Probe Accuses Damascus of 'Extermination' of Detainees
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/16/U.N. investigators on Monday accused Damascus of "extermination" in its jails and detention centers, saying prisoners were executed, tortured to death or held in such horrific conditions that they perished. Over the past four and a half years, thousands of detainees have been killed while being held by different sides in Syria's brutal conflict, the U.N. commission of inquiry on Syria said in its latest report. The report painted a stark picture of prisons and detention centers run by the Syrian authorities. "It is apparent that the government authorities administering prisons and detention centers were aware that deaths on a massive scale were occurring," the report said. It accused Damascus of committing "extermination as a crime against humanity." The Syrian government was also guilty of committing a range of other war crimes and crimes against humanity, including murder, rape, torture and enforced disappearance, the investigators said. The report, which stretches back to the beginning of the conflict in March 2011 and through last November, is based on 621 interviews, including with more than 200 former detainees who witnessed one or more deaths in custody. "Nearly every surviving detainee has emerged from custody having suffered unimaginable abuses," commission head Paulo Pinheiro said in a statement. The survivors had detailed how their cellmates were beaten to death during interrogation or in their cell, left to die of severe injuries sustained from torture or from unattended medical conditions, the report said. Others died from the "inhuman living conditions", including severely overcrowded and unhygienic cells and lacking food and clean water, with many prisoners for instance forced to use their toilet as a source of drinking water. Most of the detainees who are known to have died are men, women and children as young as seven, the report said. Abuse, squalid conditions and deaths were consistent across places of detention and over time, and must have been condoned up the chain of command, it said. "There are reasonable grounds to believe that high-ranking officers -- including the heads of branches and directorates -- commanding these detention facilities, those in charge of the military police, as well as their civilian superiors, knew of the vast number of deaths occurring in detention facilities," it said. "Yet (they) did not take action to prevent abuse, investigate allegations or prosecute those responsible."Damascus is meanwhile not the only one abusing and killing detainees. The report detailed horrific abuses carried out in detention centers run by the Islamic State group, including massacres and executions of children. The group, notorious for its brutal public executions by beheadings and throwing people off high buildings, has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, the report said.

Syria Rebels Lose New Ground to Kurds, Regime
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/16/Syrian rebels have withdrawn from three villages threatened by Russian strikes in the northern province of Aleppo that borders Turkey, allowing Kurdish fighters to overrun them, a monitor said Monday.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the rebels abandoned the villages of Aqlamiyah, Deir Jamal and Mareanar on Sunday at the insistence of residents who feared their homes would be bombed. That enabled the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to move in to seize the three villages, in another setback for the rebels only days after they lost three nearby towns to the Kurds. Aqlamiyah and Mareanar lie near the strategic Minnigh military airbase, held by rebel groups since August 2013.
Opposition factions north of Syria's second city Aleppo have been increasingly stuck "between the pincers" of YPG forces on one side and pro-government fighters on the other, a military source told AFP. After some clashes between rebels and the YPG, residents pressured rebels in some villages to hand over control to the Kurds so that Russian warplanes would not target their homes, Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said. Since September, the Russian air force has been carrying out strikes against groups of fighters opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Its aerial campaign has intensified in recent weeks in Aleppo province, allowing government and allied forces to make significant gains while forcing tens of thousands of Syrians to flee to the border with Turkey. The government has set its sights on Tal Rifaat, a rebel bastion in northern Aleppo that lies 20 kilometres (12 miles) south of the frontier. Late Sunday night, regime forces seized control of Bakfeen, a village just five kilometers south of Tal Rifaat. "Regime forces are advancing towards the north to seize control of Tal Rifaat, then Azaz, in a bid to reach the Turkish border and to stop fighters and weapons from entering Syria," said Abdel Rahman. The government's week-long offensive in Aleppo province has secured key gains. It broke a rebel siege on the villages of Nubol and Zahraa, cut the rebel supply route to the Turkish border and expanded government control to the north of Syria's second city. Aleppo city, once Syria's commercial hub, is divided between government forces in the west and rebels in the east. Anti-regime militants are now in control of only one route of the neighborhoods under their control in the city, but it is regularly bombarded by loyalist forces.

At least 35 migrants drown in two accidents off Turkey
AFP, Istanbul Monday, 8 February 2016/At least 35 migrants drowned in two accidents in the Aegean Sea on Monday as they tried to cross from Turkey to Greece, Turkish media said. Twenty-four died when their boat sank off the district of Edremit in the western province of Balikesir in an apparent bid to reach the Greek island of Lesbos.Four people were rescued both by air and by sea in a search and rescue operation by the Turkish coastguard, Dogan news agency said. The accident came shortly after 11 migrants died in another boat sinking further south, off the port city of Izmir, also apparently trying to reach Lesbos, the agency said.The coastguard rescued three people. Turkey, which is hosting at least 2.5 million refugees from Syria’s civil war, has become the main launchpad for migrants fleeing conflict, persecution and poverty to Europe. The deaths came as German Chancellor Angela Merkel was meeting Turkish officials in Ankara for talks on reducing the influx of migrants to Europe. The Turkish government struck a deal with the EU in November to halt the outflow of refugees, in return for three billion euros ($3.2 billion) in financial assistance. The EU on Wednesday finally reached an agreement on how to finance the deal. But the deal and the onset of winter do not appear to have deterred the migrants, with boats still arriving on the Greek islands daily.The International Organization for Migration (IOM) said the number of refugees and migrants who perished in the Mediterranean in January alone topped 360.In January, almost 62,200 migrants and refugees entered Europe through Greece, according to the IOM, most of them from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.

U.N.: Mass deaths in Syrian jails amount to crime of "extermination"
Reuters, Geneva Monday, 8 February 2016/Detainees held by the Syrian government are dying on a massive scale amounting to a state policy of "extermination" of the civilian population, a crime against humanity, United Nations investigators said on Monday. The U.N. commission of inquiry called on the Security Council to impose "targeted sanctions" on Syrian officials in the civilian and military hierarchy responsible for or complicit in deaths, torture and disappearances in custody, but stopped short of naming them. In their report, the independent experts said they had also documented mass executions and torture of prisoners by two jihadi groups, Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), constituting war crimes. The report, "Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Deaths in Detention", covers March 10, 2011 to November 30, 2015. It is based on interviews with 621 survivors and witnesses and evidence gathered by the team led by chairman Paulo Pinheiro."Over the past four and a half years, thousands of detainees have been killed while in the custody of warring parties," the Commission of Inquiry on Syria said."The killings and deaths described in this report occurred with high frequency, over a long period of time and in multiple locations, with significant logistical support involving vast State resources," the report said."There are reasonable grounds to believe that the conduct described amounts to extermination as a crime against humanity."
Names kept in U.N. safe
Tens of thousands of detainees are held by the government of President Bashar al-Assad at any one time, and thousands more have "disappeared" after arrest by state forces or gone missing after abduction by armed groups, it said. Through mass arrests and killing of civilians, including by starvation and untreated wounds and disease, state forces have "engaged in the multiple commissions of crimes, amounting to a systematic and widespread attack against a civilian population". There were reasonable grounds to believe that "high-ranking officers", including the heads of branches and directorates commanding the detention facilities and military police, as well as their civilian superiors, knew of the deaths and of bodies buried anonymously in mass graves. They are thus "individually criminally liable", the investigators said, calling again for Syria to be referred to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Over the past four years, the investigators, who include former ICC prosecutor Carla del Ponte, have drawn up a confidential list of suspected war criminals and units from all sides which is kept in a U.N. safe in Geneva. Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS have committed mass executions of captured government soldiers and subjected civilians to "illicit trials" by Sharia courts which ordered death sentences, the report said. "Accountability for these and other crimes must form part of any political solution," the investigators said, five days after U.N.-sponsored peace talks were suspended without any result.

U.S., Saudi push ceasefire ahead of Syria talks
By AFP Washington Monday, 8 February 2016/The United States and Saudi Arabia will push for an immediate ceasefire in Syria at international talks later this week, their top diplomats said Monday. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir met in Washington to prepare for broader negotiations in Munich in Thursday. There, the 17-nation International Syria Support Group will debate ways to restart a struggling UN-led effort to get Syria’s warring parties to the table. Kerry and Jubeir said they hoped the contact group, which includes the Syrian regime’s allies Russia and Iran, would agree to a rapid ceasefire on the ground. “We have a tremendous stake in trying to resolve the problems in the region before they consume all of us,” Jubeir said, giving brief remarks with Kerry. Both Kerry and Jubeir cited UN Security Council resolution 2254, which calls for a ceasefire and humanitarian access to besieged Syrian towns. “And we hope that when we meet in Munich in the next few days, we’ll be in a position where we can make progress on that goal,” Kerry said. Russia was among the countries which approved UNSC 2254 in December but has continued to bomb opposition positions on behalf of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The continued bombardment of rebel-held towns was among the reasons given by the Saudi-backed opposition coalition for not cooperating with the U.N. peace talks. U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura is trying to get the Geneva ceasefire talks back on track, but is relying on the ISSG countries to pressure the warring parties.

Egypt rejects charge against police in Italian’s death
AFP, Cairo Monday, 8 February 2016/Egypt's interior minister Monday rejected charges of security forces involvement in the case of Italian Giulio Regeni, who was found dead bearing signs of torture after disappearing in Cairo last month. "This did not happen," Magdy Abdel Ghaffar said at a press conference when a reporter asked if Regeni, a Cambridge University PhD student, had been arrested by the police. "It is completely unacceptable that such accusations be directed" at the interior ministry, he said. "This is not Egyptian security policy -- Egyptian security has never been accused of such a matter." Regeni disappeared on January 25 and was found dead on February 3. An Italian autopsy after his body's repatriation at the weekend concluded that he was killed by a violent blow to the base of the skull having already suffered multiple fractures all over his body. Rights activists and several opposition groups say Regeni, who was doing research on Egyptian trade union movements, had been arrested by the police and tortured. The diplomatic community and the Italian media have also raised the possibility of torture. Global rights groups have regularly denounced mysterious disappearances of activists, torture and beating of detainees in Egyptian detention centres. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has himself urged security forces to restrain themselves after several cases of custodial deaths emerged in recent months. Regeni went missing in central Cairo while on the way to meet a friend on January 25, the fifth anniversary of the start of the uprising against longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak. On the anniversary Cairo was quiet, with police deployed across the capital to prevent any demonstrations. Regeni's body was found in a ditch in a Cairo suburb bearing signs of torture.

UAE plans to outsource most govt services: PM
Reuters, Dubai Monday, 8 February 2016/The United Arab Emirates plans to outsource most government tasks to the private sector and cut the number of ministries, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum said on Monday. "We will have a road map to outsource most government services to the private sector ... The new government will have a smaller number of ministries and more ministers to deal with national and strategic issues," the prime minister said on his official Twitter account. He announced the formation of a single education ministry, abolishing the ministry of higher education, and fused several other state bodies into related ministries. No time frame was given for the changes. Gulf Arab oil exporters have for years subsidized food, fuel, electricity and water, keeping prices very low in an effort to maintain social order, though the UAE economy is less reliant than some of its neighbors on oil revenues. The prime minister’s series of tweets also announced two new posts to the federal government. The Minister of State for Tolerance has been added “to instill tolerance as a fundamental value” in the Emirati society. The Dubai ruler also introduced the post of Minister of State for Happiness “whose mission is to channel policies and plans to achieve a happier society.”

Tens killed in clashes in Turkey’s Kurdish southeast
By Reuters Istanbul Monday, 8 February 2016/At least nine civilians and 16 rebel fighters have been killed as security forces battle militants of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, the army and the region’s main political party said on Monday. Violence has raged in the region since the collapse of peace talks last July aimed at ending a three-decade PKK insurgency. Some of the worst clashes have been in the town of Cizre and the Sur district of Diyarbakir, the region's biggest city, where security forces have imposed a 24-hour curfew. Ten of the 16 rebels killed on Sunday were in Cizre and six were in Sur, the military said on its website, adding that this brought the militants’ total death toll in the two places to 749 since December. A plainclothes police officer was also gunned down on Monday in the town of Yuksekova near the Iraqi border, media reported. In the center of Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, police used water cannon and tear gas on Monday to break up a protest against the Cizre operations, witnesses said. Several people were detained, Dogan News Agency said. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, speaking at a joint news conference in the capital Ankara with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said the Cizre operations may draw to a close in the next few days. “It is obvious that (the PKK) is implementing methods to destabilize cities in Turkey. In this regard, Cizre is a critical town, situated so close to the (Syrian) border, exploitable for weapons and terrorists to cross,” he said. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which has Kurdish origins and is the southeast’s biggest party, named nine civilians who had been killed in Cizre since Friday, bringing the death toll to 127 civilians since December.
Many wounded
Davutoglu dismissed claims that civilians have been targeted and also denied reports that several wounded people had died after spending days stranded in buildings in Cizre.
Authorities had sent ambulances to collect the wounded - mainly PKK members - but the poor security situation had prevented them for reaching the hurt, he said. The HDP said late on Sunday its lawmakers had not heard from a group of 15 wounded people, who have been sheltering in a basement in Cizre’s Cudi district along with seven dead bodies for more than a week. It said nine more people had died in a fire in a different basement in the area and that they had also not heard from wounded people there for the last two days. The protest in Istanbul occurred after the HDP called for a march near Taksim Square, the city’s tourism and transportation hub, to draw attention to the situation in Cizre, Dogan said. Also on Monday police in the Swiss city of Zurich used tear gas and rubber bullets against a group of around 100 Kurdish activists who held an unauthorized demonstration outside the Turkish consulate in the city. Swiss police said the demonstrators were protesting against conditions in Turkey. One person was detailed. Turkey, the United States and the European Union designate the PKK as a terrorist organization.

Iran awards medals of honor to nuclear team
The Associated Press, Tehran Monday, 8 February 2016/Iran awarded medals of honor on Monday to its nuclear negotiators who helped clinch a landmark deal with world powers last year. President Hassan Rouhani awarded the "Medal of Merit" to Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the "Medal of Courage" to Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan and Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi, who is also the country's nuclear chief. The historic July 14 agreement brought about the lifting of international economic sanctions last month after the United Nations certified that Iran has met all its commitments to curbing its nuclear activities. "We passed behind us difficult days, difficult hours and nights," Rouhani said at the ceremony. "But we did not lose the right path and God did not leave us alone." Rouhani was a strong supporter of the nuclear negotiations and backed the agreement in the face of fierce internal resistance from hard-liners. The agreement and the lifting of sanctions were seen as a major accomplishment for Rouhani, who was elected in 2013 on a platform promising constructive engagement with the outside world and an end to Iran's international isolation. On Monday Rouhani expressed particular gratitude for the support he received from Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters in Iran. "Without the Supreme Leader, there was no national unity. Without the Supreme Leader, our (nuclear) accomplishment would have not been as great as it is today and maybe we would not have had such an achievement," he said.The implementation of the deal and the lifting of sanctions have increased Rouhani's popularity; now his allies are hoping for a strong showing in Feb. 26 parliamentary elections.

Survivors including Child Pulled Alive from Taiwan Quake Rubble
Associated Press/Naharnet/February 08/16/A girl aged eight and three others were rescued Monday from the rubble of a Taiwan apartment tower complex, more than two days after it was felled by an earthquake, but over 100 others remain trapped in the ruins. Questions about the disaster intensified after images from the site showed metal cans and foam had been used to fill parts of the complex's concrete framework. The girl and a 28-year-old woman were the latest to be pulled from the rubble, while a man and a woman were rescued earlier in the day as emergency workers scrabbled to find the missing. Prosecutors have launched an investigation into the collapse of the 16-storey Wei-kuan building -- the only high-rise in the southern city of Tainan to crumble completely when the 6.4 magnitude struck before dawn Saturday. The quake left 37 confirmed dead, most of them from the apartment complex. There were also some dramatic escapes. Rescuers told earlier Monday how they took more than 20 hours to free one survivor, 40-year-old Lee Tsong-tian who was trapped by his leg. He was eventually freed but had to have his leg amputated. The other survivor pulled from the rubble earlier Monday was Tsao Wei-ling, 45, who is in stable condition. Her husband and two-year-old child were pulled dead from the rubble, officials at the site said. A search was continuing for five other members of her family trapped inside. City mayor William Lai said survivors and relatives had reported building violations.
The island's President-elect Tsai Ing-wen, who will take office in May, said her government would prioritize building safety. "There are many old buildings across Taiwan... there should be an overall review of their resistance to earthquakes and other disasters," she said during a hospital visit to survivors.
Local media reported the company that built the complex had gone out of business. Max Lo, former president of the Taiwan Engineering and Science Association, told AFP cans and foam could acceptably be used within decorative parts of a building to reduce its weight. "Using them in the main structure would be against the national building code," he said. "The first floor of the building was a shopping mall. We also need to find out if the walls designed to help support the building were taken out to increase the shopping space." President Ma Ying-jeou said there was still hope for survivors, even beyond the 72-hour window which ends early Tuesday. "We will carry on until the last second. The golden 72 hours of rescue is the standard but there are many exceptions," said Ma after visiting two survivors in hospital with bone fractures. One of them, Liu Yi-chen, had lost her 10-day-old baby and husband. Her two other children remain missing. The other had lost her husband, while her son and pregnant daughter-in-law are missing. "Many people are still trapped and our hearts are sinking," said Ma. Liu, a nurse, told AFP she was lying in bed breastfeeding her baby in their ninth-floor apartment when she felt the bed shaking. Then the floor caved in and she and her husband plunged several storeys. Liu's legs were pinned down by bricks. Her baby fell nearby but she could not reach her. "I was talking to my husband and told him we have to get out together. He replied 'I love you, wife. You stay well' and I said 'What are you talking about? We'll stay well together' and then the talking stopped," said Liu."The baby cried for an hour and then there was no voice."Cranes, drills, ladders, sniffer dogs and life detection equipment are being used to locate those trapped, but emergency workers and soldiers have also had to shore up the ruins to avoid further tragedies. Rescuers are set to start using diggers and extractors to remove giant concrete slabs once they have ensured all residents from the upper parts of the rubble have been freed. The quake struck on the weekend before Chinese New Year when many relatives would have joined families in the complex to enjoy the holidays. Now they endure an agonizing wait for news.

Saudi Executes Egyptian for Drug Trafficking
Associated Press/Naharnet/February 08/16/Saudi Arabia executed on Monday an Egyptian man convicted of smuggling drugs, the interior ministry said, bringing to 59 the number of convicts put to death this year. Ibrahim Mohammed Salman was caught trying to smuggle opium which was hidden in his car, the ministry said in a statement carried by state news agency SPA. He was executed in the northern city of Tabuk, the ministry said. Most executions in ultra-conservative Saudi Arabia are done by beheading with a sword. The kingdom on January 2 executed 47 people in a single day for "terrorism".
In 2015 the kingdom executed 153 people, mostly for drug trafficking or murder, according to an AFP tally. Amnesty International says the number of executions in Saudi Arabia last year was the highest for two decades. However, the tally was far behind that for China and Iran. The kingdom practices a strict Islamic legal code under which murder, drug trafficking, armed robbery, rape and apostasy are all punishable by death.

Minister Says Egypt Flooded Gaza Tunnels at Israel's Request
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 08/16/An Israeli minister said Egypt flooded tunnels on its border with the besieged Gaza Strip at Israel's request, before a spokeswoman on Sunday said the remarks were misinterpreted. Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, a member of the ruling Likud party, said on Saturday that Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi "did flood a large part of the tunnels between Gaza and Sinai," calling it a "good solution." The Palestinian coastal enclave's southern border with Egypt's Sinai Peninsula is significantly shorter than its eastern border with Israel.
"Let's say that if Sisi did do it, it's to a large extent due to requests and pressure from us," he said. Israeli officials say Hamas, the Islamist movement that rules Gaza, is rebuilding tunnels that could be used for attacks against Israel. In late 2014, Egypt began setting up a buffer zone on its border with Gaza, and destroyed hundreds of tunnels it says are used for smuggling weapons and other items. In September 2015, Egypt carried out digging work that Palestinians say led to the flooding of the last remaining tunnels there. An Israeli blockade severely restricts the movement of people and goods into and out of the territory, and Egypt's sole border with Gaza has also remained largely closed since 2013. Hamas has accused Egypt of adding to the siege of Gaza by destroying tunnels which have long been used to transport people and goods in and out of the enclave of some 1.8 million inhabitants. On January 29, Hamas chief Ismail Haniya said the group was ready for a new confrontation with Israel, thanks in part to the reconstruction of tunnels. A spokeswoman for Steinitz said in a statement to AFP that "the impression" his remarks created, "as though the Egyptian campaign against the tunnels is a result of an Israeli request, is wrong and does not reflect reality."Egypt is reluctant to be seen in the Arab world as acting against the Palestinians. Steinitz reportedly angered Israeli defense officials by making the comments. Since 2013, jihadist groups have stepped up their attacks against Egyptian security forces in the northern Sinai Peninsula. Hamas lost a major ally when Egypt's then army chief Sisi toppled Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013, and has had strained relations with Sisi ever since. Steinitz said on Saturday that "security coordination between Israel and Egypt is good and stronger than ever before."

Iran Infiltrates the West Bank
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/February 08/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7392/iran-west-bank-sabireen
"The Patient Ones," Al-Sabireen, are seeking Palestinians as a group to become an Iranian proxy in the region, and redoubling efforts to eliminate the "Zionist entity" and replace it with an Islamist empire.
Loosed from its sanction-based constrictions, Iran is now free to underwrite terror throughout the region. This is precisely what is happening in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Iran's infiltration of the West Bank should serve as a red flag not only for Israel, but also for the U.S. and other Western powers. An Israeli pullout, leading to a Hamas takeover of the West Bank, has been a subject of concern. Now, a growing number of Israelis and Palestinians are wondering if such a vacuum will provide an opening for Iran.
Emboldened by its nuclear deal with the world powers, Iran is already seeking to enfold in its embracing wings the Arab and Islamic region.
Iran's capacity for intrusions having been starved by years of sanctions. Now, with the lifting of sanctions, Tehran's appetite for encroachment has been newly whetted -- and its bull's-eye is the West Bank.
Iran has, in fact, been meddling for many years in the internal affairs of the greater region. It has been party to the civil wars in Yemen and Syria, and, through the Shiite Muslims living there, continues actively to undermine the stability of many Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
The lives of both the Lebanese and the Palestinians are also subject to the ambitions of Iran, which fills the coffers of groups such as Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
Until recently, Iran held pride of place as Hamas's primary patron in the Gaza Strip. It was thanks to Iran's support that Palestinian Islamist movement, Hamas, held hostage nearly two million Palestinians living in the Strip. Moreover, this backing enabled Hamas to smuggle all manner of weapons into the Gaza Strip, including rockets and missiles that were aimed and fired at Israel.
But the honeymoon between Iran and Hamas ended a few years ago, when Hamas refused to support the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad -- Tehran's major ally in the Middle East -- against the Syrian opposition. Since then, the Iranians, who have lost confidence in their erstwhile Hamas allies, have been searching among the Palestinians for more loyal friends. And they seem to have found them: Al-Sabireen ("the Patient Ones").
Al-Sabireen, Iran's new ally, first popped up in the Gaza Strip, where they recruited hundreds of Palestinians, many of them former members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Palestinian sources report that Al-Sabireen has also succeeded in enlisting many disgruntled Fatah activists who feel betrayed by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its president, Mahmoud Abbas. This sense of betrayal is the fruit of the PA's failure to pay salaries to its former loyalists. In addition, anti-Israel incitement and indoctrination in mosques, social media and public rhetoric has radicalized Fatah members and driven them into the open arms of Islamist groups.
The Iranian-backed Al-Sabireen is already a headache for Hamas. The two terror groups share a radical ideology and both seek to destroy Israel. Nonetheless, Al-Sabireen considers Hamas "soft" on Israel because it does not wage daily terror attacks against its citizens. The "Patient Ones" are seeking Palestinians as a group to become an Iranian proxy in the region.
Al-Sabireen's Gaza commander, Ahmed Sharif Al-Sarhi (left), was responsible for a series of shooting attacks on Israel before he was fatally shot in October 2015 by IDF snipers along the border with the Gaza Strip. The Iranians are also believed to have supplied their new terrorist group in the Gaza Strip with Grad and Fajr missiles (right) that are capable of reaching Tel Aviv.
Buoyed by the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions against Tehran, Al-Sabireen members are feeling optimistic. The group recently described these developments as a "victory" for all Muslims and proof of their "pride and strength." Muslims should now unite, they said, in order to stand up to the "world's arrogance and remove the Zionist entity from the land of Palestine."
Indeed, Al-Sabireen appears to be redoubling its efforts to eliminate the "Zionist entity" and replace it with an Islamist empire. Toward that goal, the group is now seeking to extend its control beyond the Gaza Strip. The lifting of the sanctions against Iran coincided with reports that Al-Sabireen has infiltrated the West Bank, where it is working to establish terror cells to launch attacks against Israel.
According to Palestinian Authority security sources, Al-Sabireen has already located some West Bank Palestinians who were more than happy to join the group's jihad against Jews and Israel.
PA security forces recently uncovered a terror cell belonging to Al-Sabireen in Bethlehem and arrested its five members. The suspects received money from the group's members in the Gaza Strip in order to purchase weapons to attack Israeli soldiers and settlers in the West Bank.
Al-Sabireen is not the only Iranian proxy whose eye is on the West Bank. Last month, in the West Bank city of Tulkarm, Israeli security forces uncovered and broke up a terrorist cell commanded by Hezbollah, which was planning suicide bombings and shooting attacks. The Palestinian members of the cell had been taught by Jawed Nasrallah, the son of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, how to carry out suicide bombings, assemble bomb vests, gather intelligence, and set up training camps.
All of this sounds eerily familiar. As it has spread its wings over Al-Sabireen and Hezbollah, Iran has done much the same with its other proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and members of the Shiite communities in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, all the while fomenting instability and gaining bases of local power.
Loosed from its sanction-based constrictions, Iran is now free to underwrite terror throughout the region. This is precisely what is happening in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Iran's infiltration of the West Bank should serve as a red flag not only for Israel, but also for the U.S. and other Western powers. At the moment, there is little to be done to combat Iran's presence in the Gaza Strip. But Iran on Israel's West Bank doorstep is a flag of a different color.
An Israeli pullout, leading to a Hamas takeover of the West Bank, has been a subject of concern. Now, a growing number of Israelis and Palestinians are wondering if such a vacuum will provide an opening for Iran.
The future of the Middle East and Europe would be shockingly different if any Palestinian state were to fall into the hands of Iran's Islamic extremists and their allies.
The Palestinians and all interested parties might remember that Al-Sabireen is -- if nothing else -- patient.

The Real Cost of Nuclear Deterrence
Peter Huessy/Gatestone Institute/February 08/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7375/nuclear-deterrence-cost
North Korea used both the Agreed Framework and the NPT as camouflage to cheat and proceed with its covert nuclear weapons program. Nuclear weapons are apparently an integral part of North Korea's strategy eventually to reunify the Korean peninsula under North Korean communist rule.
According to Hwang Jang-Yop, highest-ranking North Korean defector in history, North Korea's goal is to remove American military forces from South Korea. Once that withdrawal is achieved, the North would use its nuclear arsenal to deter Japan and the U.S. and prevent these two key South Korean allies from coming to the defense of the South once the North invades it.
Arms control, since the height of the Cold War, has cut both the U.S. and Russian strategic deployed arsenals by nearly 90% and thus can hardly be described as part of any "arms race" that might have compelled North Korea to build nuclear weapons.
The idea that the U.S. deciding to replace aging nuclear systems, some half-century after the last modernization, is somehow perpetuating an "arms race" is without foundation.
"Military critics" are already anticipating how to disembowel critical elements of the U.S. military -- especially its aging nuclear deterrent -- when the defense budget will be unveiled by the administration and sent to Congress February 9, 2016. In two recent essays, for instance, Gordon Adams, previously at the Office of Management and Budget in the Clinton administration, and Lawrence Korb, at the Center for American Progress, are both calling for dismantling the U.S. nuclear deterrent.
Korb has long claimed that nuclear deterrence itself is obsolete. He blames U.S. nuclear modernization plans for providing an excuse for North Korea to test and build nuclear weapons of their own. It is an echo of Ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick's 1984 warning that when things go wrong in the world, many critics of American policy will "always blame America first."
Korb complains that twenty years ago the U.S. Senate failed to ratify the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty. And that fifteen years ago, the U.S. withdrew from the ABM treaty with the former USSR. These two actions, claims Korb, were responsible for providing the North Korea regime an incentive to test and build nuclear weapons. Any further nuclear modernization by America, claims Korb, will similarly force North Korea into more testing of nuclear weapons and building a bigger nuclear arsenal.
Adams, on the other hand, simply calls for the U.S. unilaterally to dismantle most of its nuclear deterrent. He proposes that the U.S. eliminate all land-based Minuteman missiles, take the strategic bombers out of their nuclear role and build only eight of the projected twelve nuclear submarines the U.S. is planning to acquire.
The nuclear arsenal of the U.S. would then shrink then from more than 500 separate launch platforms to fewer than ten – a low number the U.S. arsenal has never before reached except at the very end of World War II when the U.S. had exclusive possession of such weapons.
Both Adams and Korb propose such massive cuts because they believe the United States is pursuing an aggressive nuclear "arms race"— in their view unnecessary and much too expensive.
What is wrong with this picture? Just about all of it.
Korb sounds as if he is living in a fantasy world if his own making. First of all, North Korea started to build its nuclear arsenal as far back as the early 1990s, when the U.S. was still a party to the ABM Treaty and had announced a ban on any further nuclear testing. The only nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula since the end of the Cold War are North Korean weapons.
As for the U.S. pursuing an "arms race" or "build-up," in 1991, the U.S. and the USSR announced the START I treaty, which cut their deployed nuclear arsenals dramatically to no more than 6000 warheads. Ballistic missile warheads were cut as well by 50%.
At the same time, the United States made two key decisions: to delay--unfortunately-- much needed nuclear modernization programs; and to accelerate the nuclear reductions required by the START I treaty.[1] In short, just as the United States was building down, North Korea was building up.
There is thus no basis to Korb's charge that the North Koreans started building nukes in the 1990s to follow in the U.S.'s footsteps.
And even more surreal is Korb's claim that North Korea can be excused for building offensive nuclear missiles in response to U.S. non-nuclear missile-defense interceptors. The U.S. first deployed these in 2004 -- long after North Korea built its first nuclear weapons.
Just think: North Korea is building offensive nuclear missiles armed with real nuclear warheads. The United States is building—in response-- non-nuclear ballistic missile interceptors to protect America and its allies from explicit North Korean nuclear missile threats. In Korb's view, the U.S "arms control" credibility does not meet North Korea's standards; as a result, North Korea is excused for its nuclear arms building.
Ironically, contrary to Korb's assertion, the United States in the 1990s did all the things Korb now says should have caused North Korea not to pursue nuclear weapons. The U.S. stopped nuclear testing; it largely put on hold the modernization of its nuclear forces, and it pursued nuclear weapons arms control and dramatically reduced its arsenal. Not until 2004, long after the North started building its nuclear arsenal, did the U.S. deploy a single missile defense interceptor to protect the continental United States.[2]
From the beginning, North Korea cheated on its 1994 Agreed Framework agreement with the U.S. in which it guaranteed not to build any nuclear weapons. In addition, North Korea was also a signatory to the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under which all non-nuclear states pledged not to build nuclear weapons. That makes two broken guarantees.
What Korb ignores is that North Korea used both the Agreed Framework and the NPT as camouflage to cheat and proceed with its covert nuclear weapons program all the while pretending to be nuclear weapons free. Nuclear weapons, apparently, are an integral part of North Korea's strategy eventually to reunify the Korean peninsula under North Korean communist rule.
How do we know that?
Hwang Jang-Yop, the highest-ranking North Korean defector in history, was the personal tutor and assistant to North Korea's ruler, Kim Jong-Il. He was also Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly. His defection in 1997 was a huge blow to the North. The South, upon his death in 2010 at the age of 87, made his birthday a national holiday.[3]
As he told retired USAF General Michael Dunn, the past President of the National Defense University and the Air Force Association, North Korea's goal is to remove American military forces from South Korea. Once that withdrawal is achieved, the North would hold at risk Japan and the United States with its nuclear arsenal and prevent these two key South Korean allies from coming to the defense of the South once the North invaded militarily. In short, North Korea's nuclear arsenal was to trump America's conventional military capability, and had nothing to do with America's nuclear arsenal.
Kim Jong Un, the "Supreme Leader" of North Korea, supervises the April 22 test-launch of a missile from a submerged platform. (Image source: KCNA)
Though Adams does not blame America for North Korea's nuclear recklessness, his proposed cuts to America's nuclear arsenal would cause serious instabilities in the nuclear balance between the United States and its nuclear-armed adversaries. It would also signal to U.S. our allies--such as South Korea and Japan-- that the U.S. extended nuclear umbrella under which they are protected may no longer be part of U.S. policy. This information, in turn, will probably propel U.S. allies to build their own nuclear arsenals -- worsening even further nuclear tensions and instabilities.
A key part of both the arguments of Adams and Korb and is the assumption that the U.S. is planning to spend nearly $350 billion over the next decade and a trillion dollars over the next three decades on nuclear modernization. Given such huge planned expenditures, Adams proposes to save roughly $200 billion by eliminating two-thirds of America's nuclear deterrent. Korb says the U.S. is spending too much, and has previously supported similar cuts.
Is the U.S. planning to spend $350 billion over the next decade and $1 trillion between now and 2045 on nuclear modernization? Currently the United States spends $25 billion on its nuclear enterprise, and by the middle of next decade this bill will rise to $30+ billion as the U.S. begins to build a new nuclear-capable bomber; new land-based missiles to modernize the Minuteman force of 400 land-silo-based missiles, and 12 replacement submarines for the 14 Trident submarines currently in the fleet.
A fair accounting of the costs of modernizing the nuclear enterprise would come to a total of roughly $270 billion for the next decade. If one excludes the non-nuclear bomber, the costs come down to $230 billion.
Included in the total is also the work of the Department of Energy. The U.S. has to refurbish its nuclear warheads and it is going to reduce the types of warheads it has have from twelve to five, and at the same time modernize and update its command and control system that communicates with its nuclear forces. Both are essential to maintaining deterrence.
No matter how you slice it, the entire nuclear enterprise—the platforms, the energy department and the command and control-- will cost at its peak level—in 2025—no more than 4% of the Defense Budget or 1/2200ths of the overall Federal budget. At $25 billion now -- rising to $30-2 billion by the middle of next decade -- the nuclear accounts still cannot then average $35 billion a year.
A couple of factors lower this estimate compared to that of Adams and Korb. First, the conventional non-nuclear bomber force will be modernized irrespective of whether the new strategic aircraft is nuclear capable. The "nuclear related" costs of the bomber are in the 3% range of its total cost, according to former top Defense Department official James Miller. Thus, eliminating the nuclear role of the bomber as Adams proposes would save at best some $1.5 billion over the 15-year life of the bomber's acquisition.
As for eliminating the Minuteman force of 400 missiles, the U.S. might at best save $300 million a year in research and development (R&D) costs that were scheduled to be spent to begin building a new ICBM during the next ten years. But closing the three related ICBM missile bases will have considerable costs of up to 40% of the imputed "savings" from cutting R&D for the next decade thus the savings are much lower than Adam's estimates.[4]
What about eliminating four of the planned twelve submarines? This option saves no funding over at least the next three, five-year defense plans: the acquisition of a smaller number of submarines comes at the end of the purchase of submarines and in the 2034-5 time-frame. This means that whatever acquisition savings might be achieved would have to wait for nearly two decades to be realized. If one delays now the planned replacement of the old Trident submarines to save money in the short term, such a move would leave huge gaps in the U.S. nuclear deterrent today: the submarines would go out of service now and not be replaced.
What about other near term savings, such as in the research and development budgets for submarines and bombers? There will be little savings as the R&D costs of acquisition programs do not change with a smaller purchase of submarines, or if the bombers are not nuclear capable[5]: most R&D is all done prior to building the submarines, and almost all bomber-related R&D work is for the conventional force of bombers and not in support of their nuclear role.
Thus Adams's proposals would save almost no money over the near term, but they would increase strategic dangers. For example, the hull life one expects from the current operating submarines when they are replaced will be greater than any other submarine in our nation's history. With a longer deployment, the U.S. risks a catastrophic technical failure that might jeopardize the entire U.S. nuclear deterrent, resting as it would on the submarines alone.
What about the impact on the strategic balance and deterrence of going to a submarine-only nuclear deterrent, as Adams proposes?[6]
That would entail putting all of America's nuclear eggs in one nuclear basket. The U.S. would be assuming that while the air and land have become increasingly transparent to surveillance, for some reason the oceans would remain opaque and thus U.S. submarines would remain undetectable for their entire four-decade deployment, an assumption Adams makes. That is a reckless bet to make, especially when the very survival of the United States is at stake.
Furthermore, the reduced submarine force would, for logistical reasons, be able to be deployed only in one ocean—either the Atlantic or Pacific, but not both.
This requires some further explanation. The Navy has repeatedly emphasized that the number of submarines—12— the U.S. is buying for the future is critical to ensure that enough submarines are at sea on alert, and are therefore available to provide sufficient deterrent capability against America's principal nuclear adversaries.
But reducing the number of submarines to 8 as Adams proposes would also significantly reduce not only the number of submarines but also the number of missiles available to deliver a retaliatory strike.
For example, 12 boats with 192 missiles with nearly 800 warheads can hit far more targets than 8 boats with 124 missiles and 800 warheads. To hold at risk all important Russian and Chinese targets, the U.S. would have to keep submarines in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans as it does today.
Limiting the submarine force to one ocean would eliminate our ability to cover significant targets in both countries thus lessening deterrence of both China and Russia and pushing us to concentrate on holding at risk targets either in one country or the other.
Thus, deterring either China or Russia would have to be taken off the table: the U.S. could not hold all the key military assets at risk for each country necessary to ensure that deterrence would work.
To avoid the problem inherent in so radically reducing the U.S. deterrent, Adams proposes simply to take some of the warheads from the submarines, ICBMs and bombers that would not be built, and add them to the submarines that would be built. This move would require putting the maximum number of 8 warheads possible on each of the 16 missiles aboard each submarine.
But even then the U.S. would not have the same deterrent capability as it does today.
The U.S. would still have roughly 500 fewer warheads overall -- and other serious problems. According to two top former Pentagon nuclear experts with whom the author recently spoke, the extra warheads would so increase the weight of the submarine-launched missiles that it would markedly "cut down on the range of the missile and the patrol area in which each submarine could operate."
As a result, each submarine at sea would have to operate closer to the countries needing to be deterred for the warheads to reach their targets. This limitation would, in turn, reduce the submarine patrol area, thereby making it easier for an adversary to find and destroy the submarines even if the oceans largely remain opaque.[7]
As the range of the missile is circumscribed by the position of the submarine at sea, the missile's warhead load and missile range are tightly interconnected. Doubling the number of warheads as Adams proposes on each missile would be redundant, "only making the rubble bounce." The missile range being compromised with fewer missiles and submarines could not cover as many targets as they can today. As a result, deterrence would be undermined even if one assumes that the submarines would remain survivable.
Adams also makes the additional mistake of assuming that because U.S. land-based missiles are in fixed silos—although spread out over five western states—they are vulnerable to being attacked. Certainly a number of silos could be attacked with incoming enemy warheads. But what would be the point in that all 400 would have to be eliminated to avoid an American retaliatory strike back at the attacker?
Nevertheless, Adams concludes that for the ICBM missiles to be of any use to the United States in a conflict, the missiles would have to be launched by the U.S. early in a crisis to avoid being eliminated by an enemy's first strike. This is known as the "use them or lose them" dilemma.[8] Thus Adams recommends that to avoid that dilemma, just get rid of the ICBMs.
This ICBM vulnerability was a common Cold War assumption and held some validity during the height of the Cold War when the U.S. had roughly 1000 silo based missiles but the Russians had over 10,000 nuclear warheads. In that era, Russia had more than enough warheads to attack all U.S. nuclear assets many times over including America's ICBM silos.
But today, under the New START Treaty signed between Russia and the U.S. in 2010, the Russians have fewer than 2000 deployed strategic warheads capable of reaching United States, one-sixth the number in 1991.
Today, therefore, to take out 400 Minuteman silos and their associated 50 launch-control centers, the Russians would have to launch some 900 missile warheads at the United States assuming they would direct two warheads on each ICBM-related target to ensure the silos' destruction.
To what end would Russia launch such a strike, especially as the remaining U.S. bomber and sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) would allow the U.S. to launch back at Russia in a retaliatory strike?
Such a Russian first strike makes no sense strategically or tactically.
Russia would have to put its forces on alert to have that many warheads ready to strike the U.S. By doing so they would unavoidably warn the U.S. of a possible pending strike: U.S. satellites would see their platforms-weapons being moved into a position to launch. Their submarines would have to go to sea, bombers be put on alert and mobile missiles moved out of garrison. Otherwise the Russians would not have enough warheads in range of the U.S. even to consider a launch capable of taking out all 400 U.S. ICBM missiles and their affiliated launch control senders.
In other words, U.S. land-based missiles are not "vulnerable," and neither are its current and planned nuclear Triad of submarines, land-based missiles, and air force bombers.
Thus cutting the Triad as Adams and Korb have supported would reduce U.S. nuclear assets to a handful, making it easier for adversaries preemptively to attack and get the U.S. out of the nuclear business.
The United States, if anything, has been on a nuclear weapons reductions tear. The Obama administration will cut nuclear warheads from 2200 deployed strategic warheads to 1550-1800 – a limit that also applies to the Russians, under the joint New Start Treaty of 2010. This is even a further reduction from the George W. Bush era when U.S. strategic deployed nuclear weapons were cut under the 2002 Moscow Treaty (just a few short months after the U.S. withdrew from the ABM Treaty). In the 2002 Moscow Treaty between Russia and the U.S., deployed warheads were cut from 6000 to 2200, a 64% reduction. That was on top of the reduction from over 13,000 warheads to the 6000 warhead level under the 1991 START 1 treaty between the US and Russia.[9]
Furthermore, modernizing, sustaining and replacing the projected nuclear force stricture, as now planned, will not add any additional nuclear weapons to the U.S. arsenal. In short, arms control, since the height of the Cold War, has cut both the U.S. and Russian strategic deployed arsenals by nearly 90% and thus can hardly be described as part of any" arms race" that might have compelled North Korea to build nuclear weapons.
Modernization does, however, avoid what Dr. Clark Murdock -- formerly a senior staff member of the House Armed Services Committee and the founder of the Program on Nuclear Initiatives at the Center for Strategic and International Studies -- described as "rusting to obsolescence".[10] This will be the result if the U.S. fails to replace its aging nuclear systems, and it would have a serious impact on America's non-nuclear allies. It would also seriously undermine their confidence in the validity of America's extended nuclear deterrent over them.
Moreover, it is not as if the U.S. had just completed an earlier modernization. The U.S. last started modernization under President John F. Kennedy in 1961 and President Ronald W. Reagan in 1981. America's newest land based ICBMs were last built in 1971; its newest submarine was built in 1991; and its newest B52 was built in 1963. The idea that deciding some half-century after modernization to replace such aging systems is somehow perpetuating an "arms race" is without foundation.
In light of this history, one can thus come up with strong reasons to reject the counsel of Adams and Korb. First, causing strategic instabilities that could easily break down deterrence in order to save less than $1 billion a year for the next 5-10 years is clearly not a wise deal. Second, reducing American nuclear assets to a handful of targets in the face of multiple thousands of Russian nuclear warheads does not even pass the strategic stability smell test, especially given the resulting ratio of Russian warheads (2200) to remaining U.S. nuclear assets (8). The U.S. might as well paint a bulls-eye on our nuclear deterrent and post a sign that says "Come Get Me."
And third, any nuclear strategy that rests on the notion of blaming the United States for starting some nuclear arms race when its deployed strategic nuclear weapons under the past five administrations—including the current one-- have already been reduced nearly 90% is patent nonsense. Even worse, putting all of America's nuclear missiles on nuclear submarines and maximizing their warhead loads would leave the U.S. with a zero near-term capability to upload, while according to a new study by defense expert James Howe Russia could technically expand its modernized nuclear arsenal to 5800 warheads.[11]
It is true, that, as USAF Major General Garret Harencak, formerly responsible for two-thirds of America's nuclear Triad, warned, a Capitol Hill audience on May 13, 2015: The United States with the end of the Cold War went on a protracted "intellectual and procurement nuclear holiday."[12]
The General explained that the U.S. failed to modernize its nuclear deterrent. The U.S. also forgot to update its nuclear policy doctrine.
The U.S. is now remedying the situation under the dual leadership of Secretary of Air Force Deborah James and USAF Chief of Staff General Mark Welsh.
Despite many security disagreements in Washington, the USAF bomber and ICBM force modernizations—as well as the Navy's submarine replacement program—are supported by both this administration and an overwhelming majority in the U.S. Congress. So are the warhead and command and control enhancements needed to upgrade and sustain the nuclear enterprise.
It is important to remember that such a political and military consensus is difficult to achieve on any subject-- let alone the future nuclear deterrent of the United States.
But that consensus it is now in place.
The new deterrent would cost only 4% of the defense budget, a historically low figure and 1/2200th of the overall Federal budget.
Why would one jeopardize that?
Peter Huessy is President of GeoStrategic Analysis of Potomac, Maryland and Senior Defense Consultant to the Mitchell Institute of the Air Force Association and a guest lecture at the US Naval Academy on nuclear deterrent policy and the founder of the 36 year AFA-NDIA-ROA Congressional Breakfast Seminar Series on Nuclear Deterrence, Missile Defense, Arms Control, Proliferation and Defense Policy.
[1] Treaty Between the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, 31 July, 1994, at www.nti.org; Mark Schneider of the National Institute of Public Policy and a former top nuclear expert in the Department of Defense explained to the author in a number of messages that the U.S. could have deployed as many as 10,000 warheads under START I but adopted reductions way beyond that number, while the Russians, luckily it turned out, also sharply reduced their nuclear arsenal below the START I required levels because they could not afford the cost of the higher number of weapons. He also points out that the U.S., under both START I and the 2002 Moscow Treaty, accelerated and went below the reductions required by treaty law.
[2] See for example the transcripts from the NDUF Breakfast Seminar Series on Nuclear Deterrence for 1993-2000, and available from the author.
[3] Personal conversation with General Michael Dunn, President, National Defense University and President, The Air Force Association, for whom this author worked 2003-06 and 2011-12; Dunn was also Vice Director for Strategic Plans and Policy, Joint Staff, Washington, D.C. in the Department of Defense.
[4] Congressional Studies have concluded that base closure costs consume some 40% of the imputed savings from the base being closed, not including the costs of personnel not finding work.
[5] Research and development costs precede a decision to acquire a weapons systems and generally are a fixed cost irrespective of the number of weapons systems one purchases. Thus stopping production of a defense weapon at say 100 units rather than 200 does not have any impact on the previous R&D expenditures as acquisition costs come after R&D is virtually completed;
[6] See especially Admiral Richard Mies, former Commander, US Strategic Command, in the Spring 2012, Issue No. 48, Undersea Warfare, "The Strategic Deterrence Mission: Ensuring a Strong Foundation for America's Security."
[7] It should be understood that when the D-5 missile leaves the submarine and goes toward its target, it releases its warheads virtually simultaneously. The warheads, when released from the missile "bus" or nose cone, each travel roughly the same distance from the missile. That is the missile "footprint." Adding 4 more warheads to each missile would be superfluous unless there were more targets to be held at risk. But if the missile needed to cover more targets, it would carry that number of warheads to begin with, while the U.S. military commanders would adjust other missile loadings to keep total warheads within the 2010 New Start treaty limits.
[8] During the past 35 years, the author has hosted over 1000 seminars on Capitol Hill on nuclear deterrent issues and especially re the assumed vulnerability of the land-based missile-leg of the nuclear Triad. Many of the speakers, including seven USAF Chiefs of Staff, all former Strategic Air Command and Strategic Command heads, three Vice Presidents, and six Air Force Secretary's as well as dozens of members of Congress all have discussed this critical issue and nearly without exception have explained that the flexibility of the nuclear Triad as a whole makes any large-scale attack on America's three ICBM missile fields in the context of an arms control environment not credible.
[9] May 24, 2002, Treat Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Strategic Offensive Reductions (The Moscow Treaty).
[10] Clark Murdock, May 12, 2015, Remarks "Defining US Nuclear Strategy and Posture in 2020-2050," AFA-NDIA-ROA Congressional Breakfast Seminar Series, www.afa.org and Huessy's Corner
[11] General Garret Harencak, Remarks at the AFA-NDIA-ROA Breakfast Seminar Series on Nuclear Deterrence; transcript available at www.afa.org
[12] "Exploring the Dichotomy Between New START Treaty Obligations and Russian Actions and Rhetoric", James R. Howe, Vision Centric, Inc. Forthcoming, 17 February, 2016.
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Is Russia helping the US win in Syria?
Week in Review/Al-Monitor/February 08/16
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Feb. 4 that a recent US intelligence assessment showed a drop in numbers of those fighting on behalf of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq from 31,500 to 25,000, a sign that the Obama administration’s strategy is working, as many of these foreign fighters seek a new base in Libya and elsewhere.
The second Week in Review column in December 2012 identified the role of Russia as one of the trends to watch regarding an endgame in Syria. The Russian trend is shaping a new phase in the Syrian war. As this column wrote last month, that endgame could begin with Aleppo, which is nearly encircled by Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian government forces.
It might be fair to ask how much credit Russia should get in setting back not only IS, but al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra and its allies. Getting an answer might be difficult, however, for two reasons.
First, the Russian air campaign has been ruthless and often indiscriminate. The civilian costs of the war can understandably and rightly overshadow what we might call “strategic” gains. Mohammed al-Khatieb provides a firsthand account for Al-Monitor of a Russian airstrike on a school and the toll of the bombardment on civilians in towns surrounding Aleppo. US Secretary of State John Kerry has appealed to Russia to adhere to UN Security Council resolutions regarding the conduct of the war in Syria. We could not agree more.
Second, and more puzzling and problematic, is that many press accounts have referred to those armed groups on the receiving end of the Russian-backed Syrian offensive simply as “rebels,” implying these are all opposition groups backed by the United States and its Western allies.
Sam Dagher of The Wall Street Journal offered a more complete assessment Feb. 5, writing, “About a half-dozen cities and towns targeted in the new regime offensives have one thing in common: All were held by a mix of Islamist and moderate rebel groups funded and armed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Complicating the picture is that some, but not all, of these groups collaborate with the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. That gives the regime and its allies fodder for their claim that they are fighting terrorism.”
This is a start, but there is more. A Feb. 5 report by the Institute for the Study of War shows the extent of the substantial Syrian military advances since Russia’s expanded military intervention. It also reveals that the Syrian government and its allies have battled IS, Jabhat al-Nusra and the radical Salafi group Ahrar al-Sham, which is often allied with Jabhat al-Nusra, in southern Aleppo province; battled IS in re-establishing a ground line of communication with the Quweires air base and in the Bab region; and battled Jabhat al-Nusra in the Latakia region.
Mustafa al-Haj explains that among the reasons that the Syrian military was able to retake Sheikh Miskin, north of Daara, after relentless Russian bombing, was “internal differences among opposition factions.” Haj reports from Damascus, “The Free Syrian Army (FSA) has been at odds with the Muthanna Movement (which had secretly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in March 2015), as well as Jabhat al-Nusra, following attempts by the FSA to isolate radical Islamist forces, according to the pro-regime Al-Mayadeen news website. These factors weakened the factions’ resistance to the army’s attacks and hampered the entry of FSA fighters from other areas to assist in defending the city.” In other words, the FSA, IS-linked Muthanna and Jabhat al-Nusra were all targets of the Russian-backed regime offensive in Daraa.
Fehim Tastekin writes this week that Syrian Turkmen groups, which have been the target of Russian bombardment, “have developed close links with Salafi jihadi organizations such as al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra.”
So this is a more complex picture of what many in the mainstream media may be reporting about Russia’s intervention in Syria. It is worth recalling that “entities associated” with IS, al-Qaeda and Jabhat al-Nusra are also the target of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 (2015), and that a cease-fire “will not apply” to actions against these “entities.” Resolution 2254 reiterates that member states should “prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as Da’esh), Al-Nusra Front (ANF), and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al Qaeda or ISIL, and other terrorist groups, as designated by the Security Council, and as may further be agreed by the ISSG and determined by the Security Council, pursuant to the Statement of the ISSG of 14 November 2015, and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Syria, and notes that the aforementioned ceasefire will not apply to offensive or defensive actions against these individuals, groups, undertakings and entities, as set forth in the 14 November 2015 ISSG Statement.”
Turkey’s outrageous offer
Turkey’s policies in Syria continue to border on the reckless, so excuse our skepticism on how the introduction of Turkish troops could play a constructive role, especially as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan risks escalation with Russia over alleged airspace violations. Ankara claimed that a Russian plane had violated its airspace Jan. 29. Metin Gurcan explains that the alleged Russian violation took place on “the Turkish border region that faces the Azaz-Munbij front, which is currently controlled by the Islamic State. If this is accurate, Russia is telling Turkey openly that it seriously intends to maintain the de facto no-fly zone it has established over the Jarablus-Munbij areas, which are also of major concern for Turkey.”
Semih Idiz reports that “developments in northern Syria are aggravating tensions between Ankara and Moscow. Following the downing of its jet, Russia intensified its air campaign, particularly against the Turkmens, but also against radical Islamic groups supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar that are fighting the Syrian army. Russia has a particular ax to grind with the Turkmens because it was their fighters who killed the Russian pilot in his parachute after he ejected from the Su-24. Turkmen refugees have started entering Turkey as the Syrian army gradually takes control of the region with Russian air support. … Russia has an added incentive now to support the PYD [Democratic Union Party] and hit Turkey in its most sensitive spot, namely the Kurdish issue. Russia says it is unthinkable that the PYD can be kept out of the Geneva talks and insists the group will be part in these talks in the future. Meanwhile, the Turkish media is reporting that Russia had started to provide air support to the PYD’s military wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG), west of the Euphrates River.”
Fehim Tastekin writes that Turkish ultranationalists have rallied to the Syrian Turkmen camp, whose armed groups have links to Jabhat al-Nusra. Tastekin concludes, “Many opposition groups labeled the Free Syrian Army have in time shifted to a Salafi mindset. How the war will transform Turkey’s ultranationalists is an important question. … This will inevitably leave a residue.”
Knowing all we know, the United States should therefore be adamant in rejecting any Saudi or Turkish offer to send its forces to Syria, if there is any seriousness to these offers.
On whose side, for example, would Saudi and Turkish forces be fighting? Radical Salafi groups Jabhat al-Nusra and the Army of Islam, which are often and intimately linked to Jabhat al-Nusra? Would such an intervention give a second wind to Jabhat al-Nusra itself? Our answer is yes.
And who would they be fighting against — IS? The Syrian Kurds who are allied with Russia and the United States? Or Russia itself, risking a NATO intervention?
We recognize the burden Turkey has assumed by providing relief to over 2.2 million Syrians, with tens of thousands more seeking entry. Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon deserve our thanks and assistance in managing this overwhelming humanitarian crisis, which received a commitment of over $10 billion from international donors last week. But if Turkey wants to further step up in Syria, it should stand down in its confrontation with Russia, and take unambiguous steps targeting IS, Jabhat al-Nusra and affiliated forces, as called for in UN Security Council resolutions.

Islam’s Sword Comes for Christians: Muslim Persecution of Christians, December 2015
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 8, 2016
Islamic hostility for Christmas was on full display as documented here: on Christmas Day, Muslims in Bethlehem set a Christmas tree on fire and greeted the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem with a hail of stones; Muslim “refugees” set fire to a public Christmas tree in Belgium; Muslim jihadis attacked churches during Christmas mass killing at least 16 in Nigeria; Muslim jihadis in the Philippines slaughtered 10 Christians on Christmas Eve to “make a statement”; three Muslim countries—Somalia, Tajikistan, and Brunei—formally banned any Christmas celebrations; due to assassination attempts on pastors and death threats to Christians, churches skipped Christmas mass in Bangladesh and were on “high alert” in Indonesia, with 150,000 security personnel patrolling; in Iran, Christians celebrating Christmas in homes were arrested.
Christmas related violence aside, sword waving Muslims chased down Christians and in two cases butchered them. In the United States, a Muslim man pulled out a sword and chased his neighbor, a Christian of Mideast descent, while saying he would “Die and kill for Allah.” The incident took place in San Bernardino, California. The victim escaped and called San Bernardino police who subsequently arrested Mohamed Ahmed Elrawi, 57, of Victorville, on suspicion of attempted murder. Police also found evidence at his apartment suggesting he is a “radicalized Muslim.” While being escorted out of his home by police, Elrawi said in Arabic to Mark Tashamneh , a Christian of Jordanian background and Elrawi’s neighbor, that he would kill him. “I’m a Christian, I’m happy … and I believe what I believe,” Tashamneh told reporters. “I am not against what he believes, but he apparently has a problem with me and came and threatened me.” Speaking of that night, another female neighbor said: “My kids were sleeping when I heard a lot of noise. I went outside and saw that (Elrawi) had a big sword that he was swinging back and forth. I went back inside but I could still hear yelling and arguing and I heard (Elrawi) telling someone that he was going to kill him.”
Muslims slaughtered two Christian leaders with swords in two separate incidents in Uganda. Patrick Ojangole, a 43-year-old Christian father of five who also supported several children whose families had disowned them for leaving Islam, was hacked to death. According to the slain man’s friend, who survived to tell the tale, they were traveling to their village when they saw Muslim women covered in burqas sitting on the road: “Because it was late in the evening, we thought they needed some help from us, so we stopped, and while we were still talking with them, a man arrived [followed by two more men] … The two women immediately pulled out swords from their burqas and gave them to the men.” One of the three Muslim men reproached Patrick for refusing to cease his Christian activities. Then the Muslims fell on him with their swords. “Patrick was a very committed Christian and a hard-working farmer,” said his friend. “From his farm work, he used to support 10 children from Muslim families who had been ostracized by their families,” as well as his own five children ranging in age from 7 to 16.
Separately, a pastor was also hacked to death and beheaded after he and other church members resisted efforts by local Muslims to seize land belonging to the church. When pastor Bongo Martin, 32, confronted and resisted them, the imam of the Muslim group answered, “We have told you many times that we do not want the church to be located near our mosque. Your church has been taking our members to your church.” Then a Muslim named Abdulhakha Mugen pulled out a sword and struck at the pastor’s neck. He instantly collapsed while the Muslim swordsman kept hacking at him and eventually decapitating him. Pastor Martin’s body was later found floating the river.
An additional five underground Christians in a predominantly Muslim village in Uganda, including a pregnant mother, died from poisoning after a Bible study.
The rest of December’s roundup of Muslim persecution of Christians around the world includes, but is not limited to, the following:
Muslim Attacks on Christian Churches and Symbols
Italy: While screaming Islam’s ancient war cry—“Allahu Akbar!”—two Muslim men, one Palestinian the other Tunisian, attacked and tried to disarm soldiers stationed outside Santa Maria Maggiore cathedral in Rome. According to Italian media, “when police intervened, the two men aged 40 and 30 called other foreigners in the area to their aid, and assaulted and threatened the arresting officers. After they were taken to the police station, they continued to speak out against law enforcement and Europe in both Arabic and Italian. They were charged with resisting and threatening an officer and instigation to commit a crime with intent to commit terrorist acts, slapped with an expulsion order, and taken to a migrant reception center in the southern city of Bari prior to repatriation.”
Egypt: A church under construction in Swada village, Minya, was attacked on December 10 by a mob consisting of at least 400 Muslims incited by local officials. “They destroyed the marble, ceramics, cement, wood and church’s signs inside the buildings and destroyed the contents of the building, and attacked and injured some of the workers,” said a local. After the attack, and although the church had obtained the necessary permits required for construction, it the same officials who incited the attack cited the attack as reason to outlaw the church. The population of Swada is about 35% Christian, or 3,000 people, and there isn’t a single Coptic Orthodox church to serve them.
Separately, an ancient Christian monastery, the Paromeos Monastery, was threatened by jihadis online. Dedicated to the Virgin Mary it was built over 1,600 years ago—more than two centuries before Islam overran Christian Egypt. Although the ancient monastery receives police protection, Christian activists are calling for greater security measures in response to growing threats.
Yemen: Days after the Islamic State (“ISIS”) assassinated Aden city’s governor, an abandoned Catholic church was blown up. According to a resident, “The gunmen, who were probably extremists, blew up the [Immaculate Conception] Catholic church in the Mualla district of Aden. We heard a strong explosion which sent a big plume of smoke into the air and afterward saw that the building was completely destroyed.” The church was already severely damaged after a Saudi-led coalition air strike last May. Reuters concludes: “Once a cosmopolitan city home to thriving Hindu and Christian communities, Aden has gone from one of the world’s busiest ports as a key hub of the British empire to a largely lawless backwater. Its small Christian population left long ago. Unknown assailants had previously vandalized a Christian cemetery and torched another Aden church this year.”
Iraq: ISIS bombed a monastery that belonged to nuns in the Christian village of Tel Kepe; ten Assyrian Christian homes were also bombed and several people injured. Separately, a cemetery in Kirkuk used by the Assyrian Church and the Syriac Orthodox church was vandalized. Crosses and tombstones were broken and graves opened. The identity of the perpetrators is unknown. Chaldean Patriarch Louis Sako condemned the destruction of the cemeteries adding “We live in difficult conditions…”
Turkey: Groups believed to be associated with ISIS issued death threats to at least 20 evangelical churches via social media, email, and mobile texts. They included “upsetting videos and pictures” said a human rights activist. Suspected Islamic State militants reportedly said they “are tired of waiting” for Muslims who had converted to Christianity to return to Islam. “Koranic commandments… urge us to slay the apostate like you,” said one message.
Bangladesh: “He who preaches Christianity must leave the country or die”—such were the words of an anonymous letter sent to ten leaders of Protestant Christian churches. An additional four church leaders narrowly escaped attempts on their lives causing the nation’s churches to cancel Christmas Day church services.
Cameroon: Boko Haram jihadis invaded a Christian village and torched a church as well as several homes. Up to 1,000 Christians – men, women and children – were adversely affected, eight killed, during the invasion. After reducing the villagers’ possessions to ashes, the jihadis also set their food supplies and other forms of sustenance on fire, leaving them struggling to survive.
Muslim Slaughter of Christians
Nigeria: Seven Muslim Fulani herdsmen invaded and attacked two households and a compound for Christians displaced from earlier jihadi attacks near Jos. Fifteen Christians were slaughtered, including three children aged 1, 3, and 5, as well as their grandmother. According to the slain woman’s daughter, “My mother struggled with the gunmen until they finally shot her and the three kids. She died trying to save the three children.” According to one resident: “They had come to survey the village that Sunday morning while we were in our churches. The Fulani gunmen even asked our children to give them drinking water, which they did, but the kids did not suspect anything and did not inform us about this. It was only after the attack that we were told about the visit of the gunmen to our village.”
Central African Republic: Armed Muslim Seleka militants attacked a camp for internally displaced people killing eight Christians and wounding one UN peacekeeper. Thousands of people have been killed since Muslim Seleka seized power of the Christian-majority country in 2013. After months of massacres, rapes, and looting by armed Seleka, militant anti-balaka groups emerged. Although they see themselves a Christian militia, the nation’s churches condemn their violent actions.
Egypt: A 70-year-old Christian woman was found stabbed to death in her house in the Muslim majority nation. She had 10 stab wounds in her chest. Police were informed and the matter was last reported as being under investigation.
Dhimmitude
Norway: Christian camps offered as shelter for asylum seekers were told by local authorities to remove all Christian symbols. According to the report, in order to accommodate “the large influx of asylum seekers to Norway, immigration authorities found it necessary to lodge asylum seekers in more places than ordinary reception centres. The Norwegian Missionary Society offered several Christian camp sites, which authorities accepted as long as the missionary society took down any cross or other Christian symbols.” It agreed. But a speaker for the Progress Party reacted by saying, “I understand that asylum centres should be politically and religiously neutral, but I interpret it so that the camps would not engage in active ministry, which is said they will respect. The cross however, is not just a religious symbol, but also a part of our heritage and part of our flag.… [I]f they fear that people are offended by being surrounded by Christian symbols, then perhaps those [Muslim] people applied for asylum in the wrong country.”
Eritrea: After finding a new life in Europe, Gospel singer Helen Berhane shared her experiences in Eritrea, including how she was locked in a shipping container and tortured for being Christian. Speaking at a conference in Rome she said: “The only reason they [Muslim authorities] let you go is when they torture you to death…. They don’t want you to die in prison, it’s not their responsibility, so they send you home to die.” Berhane, who was arrested for evangelizing and releasing religious music, was released only after she became deathly ill.
Syria: A Christian priest who escaped to the West after being held for months by Islamic State in Raqqa shared his “very intense experience, from the spiritual point of view.” According to Syriac Catholic priest Rev Jacques Mourad: “It was very difficult above all when they said, ‘Become Muslim or we’ll cut your head off.’”
Turkey: After widespread international criticism, the nation’s schoolroom textbooks appear improved in several areas, including how non-Sunni Muslims are depicted, but still contain several biases against non-Muslim religions, said a new study. The “major weakness” is that the “textbooks are still written through the paradigm of the officially-sanctioned interpretations of Islam and Islamic culture. All religious minority traditions in the country are depicted within the Muslim context rather than as distinct traditions. In addition, only superficial, limited, and misleading information is given about religions other than Islam, such as Judaism, Christianity, Hinduism and Buddhism.” For example, instead of explaining that Christians view Jesus as the Son of God, an eighth-grade text depicts him as one in a line of Islamic prophets called by Allah, akin to the Islamic historiography about Muhammad: “When Jesus reached 30 years of age, Allah gave him the duty of being a prophet…. He then began inviting people to believe in Allah. At the start, only 12 people believed in his call. They are called the ‘disciples.’”
Pakistan: Mary Javaid, a Christian teacher at a female primary school in the Punjab, was accused of having “preached Christianity to Muslim girls.” A Muslim man Muhammad Sharif filed a complaint with the Department of Education containing accusations against Mary which, according to human rights lawyer, Sardar Mushtaq Gill, are false and instead represent yet another case of discrimination and abuse towards a Christian involved in the delicate area of education. A few months earlier, a Catholic teacher appointed headmaster at a primary school was beaten and tortured by a group of Muslim teachers who spurned the authority of a Christian “infidel.”
Nigeria: Mercy, a 22-year-old Christian woman who was abducted by Boko Haram in June 2014 and rescued after five weeks, described her ordeal in the Islamic camp. In June 2014, members of Boko Haram overran the town and declared it an Islamic caliphate. At least 100 people were killed in the attack. She was sized from her home in the middle of the night. “Everyone in the town ran to save themselves. My dad and I were separated. I don’t know what happened to him. I think he died the same way many others died, because they refused to deny Christ.” She was marched off to a Boko Haram camp. “When we got to the place, there were about 50 other women. I recognised many other Christians, who had now become Muslims and were forced to undergo Islamic teaching…. My first day was like hell. I cried all day and all night. I prayed like never before and asked God to give me courage.” The next morning, Mercy and the others were taken to a clearing for questioning and asked to convert to Islam.
The four other girls were very scared and immediately agreed. I pleaded that they allow me to remain a Christian, but my pleas fell on deaf ears. They beat me and told me to never mention Christianity in the camp again. Then they told me that they would arrange a husband for me….. We were forced to attend prayers at 5am. After that, we were sent to a madrassa [Islamic school]. There was only a short break. After we were given a little food, we returned to the madrassa. They constantly told us to work hard for the advancement of Boko Haram. In the afternoon we were dispersed to do our chores, such as washing the men’s clothes…. I witnessed constantly how Boko Haram members killed innocent people. Christian men who were captured and brought to the camp were killed for refusing to deny their faith. [It was like] the fulfilment of the [things written in the] Bible played out in front of my eyes, as people died for their faith in Christ. But others, including me, could not endure the torture and gave in to their demands.
Mercy was eventually “married” off to a Muslim man and without giving any details only said, “Every single day came with tears and fears for the unknown.”
About this Series
The persecution of Christians in the Islamic world has become endemic. Accordingly, “Muslim Persecution of Christians” was developed to collate some—by no means all—of the instances of persecution that surface each month. It serves two purposes:
1) To document that which the mainstream media does not: the habitual, if not chronic, persecution of Christians.
2) To show that such persecution is not “random,” but systematic and interrelated—that it is rooted in a worldview inspired by Islamic Sharia.
Accordingly, whatever the anecdote of persecution, it typically fits under a specific theme, including hatred for churches and other Christian symbols; apostasy, blasphemy, and proselytism laws that criminalize and sometimes punish with death those who “offend” Islam; sexual abuse of Christian women; forced conversions to Islam; theft and plunder in lieu of jizya (financial tribute expected from non-Muslims); overall expectations for Christians to behave like cowed dhimmis, or third-class, “tolerated” citizens; and simple violence and murder. Sometimes it is a combination thereof.
Because these accounts of persecution span different ethnicities, languages, and locales—from Morocco in the West, to Indonesia in the East—it should be clear that one thing alone binds them: Islam—whether the strict application of Islamic Sharia law, or the supremacist culture born of it.

Geneva talks died when Russia entered the war
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/February 08/16
The Geneva Peace Talks for Syria have been suspended. And by the looks of it, they will never open again. The representatives of the rebels are pulling out of the talks and are trying to use this as leverage to get the West re-engaged. At this point it is the best they can do. However, it would be a mistake to think that it is the rebels that are scuppering the peace talks. The peace talks died the moment Russia entered the war last year – if indeed they were ever alive to begin with. With the recent ground developments, where the Assad forces – mostly on the back of the Russian war effort – are overturning the rebels on virtually every front and are getting ready to retake Aleppo. Everyone at this point knows that the notion of negotiations is dead. Whatever happens, more massacres seem likely to follow. There is no reason at all to suppose that Assad will be magnanimous in victory. And let us not forget that he remains responsible for the most civilian deaths in this conflict by far. In order to have successful negotiations, both parties need to have an incentive to get around the table and make a deal. Three years ago, before the rise of ISIS and when the Assad forces looked overwhelmed, it was the rebels and the West who saw no need for negotiations. Now it is Assad and the Russians. The rebels do not have the fire and manpower to win this, and the West no longer has the stomach to back them properly.
But Assad and the Russians seem bent on finishing this, and doing so quickly.
In this situation, the opposition knows it is doomed, unless they can find some way to get the West back on board. The attempt to draw attention to their grievances by withdrawing from the talks is feeble. Realistically, it was never going to work. But it probably is all they could have done.
Target: Assad or ISIS? The West it seems has finally decided that ISIS is their top target and that it is willing to tolerate Assad if that is what they must do to finally destroy the group in the Levant. Or at the very least, they are not willing to risk direct fighting with Russia to topple Assad. So Assad will get to stay. And if Assad stays, the fighting will continue for as long as there are Sunni fighters left. The situation is thus truly dire. One can even ask what will happen to these fighters once the rebel strongholds are overrun by government forces. Will they surrender? Will they flee? Maybe even to Europe, with the rest of the wave of refugees? Or will they join the ranks of ISIS? Whatever happens, more massacres seem likely to follow. There is no reason at all to suppose that Assad will be magnanimous in victory. And let us not forget that he remains responsible for the most civilian deaths in this conflict by far. He will be keen to make sure that the spirit of the population in the reconquered areas is well and truly broken. But even though the humanitarian situation will likely go from catastrophic to even worse, the whole thing will very like be whitewashed. Once Assad manages to get rid of the Free Syrian Army – his biggest obstacle – he will then, at long last, turn his guns on ISIS. As he does so, a massive propaganda campaign will follow, especially in sympathetic foreign media (think Russia Today), where he will be presented as having fought ISIS all along and as the only actor in this conflict who can now protect all the minorities (so long as they are not Sunni), defeat ISIS and keep the country as a single, unified state. The West will have to find creative ways to disguise their shame and embarrassment, so we can expect a lot of “this is all very regrettable, but at least this is better than ISIS” arguments from our leaders. And the rest of us will have to continue to read about body counts and be bombarded by news of the European migration crisis, presented, of course, as a separate issue to the conflict.

Morocco’s attempt to reform Islamic teachings could impact the world
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 08/16
To try and sum up extremism in one word or reason will ultimately lead to a vast generalization. But the main reason behind the cause of extremism is the educational curricula, because this lays the foundations that shape one’s thoughts. So when these curricula teach extremism, extremists will be born. Secondly, education is the wide arena where one can negatively or positively reach and influence millions of Muslim students across the world. Morocco has recently joined other countries who’ve promised to correct their school curricula. King Mohammad VI personally chaired the council of ministers to discuss the educational curriculum and instructed the minister of national education and the minister of endowment and Islamic affairs to review religious teachings and textbooks in Moroccan schools. So will Morocco succeed in what other governments who’ve attempted to resolve defects in the educational system failed?
What is new here is that Morocco has said it has decided to rewrite its curricula, so that the nation will have Muslim students who believe in Islamic values which call for “centrism, moderation, tolerance and co-existence with different cultures and civilizations.” Islam is a large religion which people can take whatever they want from
Students will thus, on the basis of religious conviction, graduate from school believing in tolerance and respecting others from different sects, religions and cultures.
Islam is a large religion which people can take whatever they want from. This is what happened during the past three decades when Islam was hijacked by those who said the religion was in danger and must go into a state of war. Ideological groups with political ambitions have cultivated and promoted this idea. Many people supported these groups, and this is how we have reached the current situation of chaos, where there are wars with Shiites, Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, Jews, Buddhists and Hindus. This is why Islam and Muslims became the enemies of most of the world’s people. Can’t Islam be like other religions where its believers live with others and co-exist with other religions? Morocco’s Royal Palace said the strategy to reform education would last for years - until 2030. If the Moroccans can write a curriculum which conveys Islam’s great humanitarian teachings and noble morals, then this curriculum is worthy of being a guide to all other Islamic countries who suffer from the problem of how and what to teach about Islam to their Muslim students.

The man King Faisal served in the U.S.
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 08/16
Stories of great people with high morals and good manners never get boring. Historians have always documented the noble stances which made kings respectable and prestigious. What makes such figures even greater is how humble they actually are. The late Saudi minister Hisham Nazer once described to me an incident that happened with late King Faisal, and which showed the extent of his faith in humans, justice and equality in a manner which even rose above western behavior that at some point was abusive towards others. It all began with Said Adam, a calm and polite man who was one of the first Saudi men with a scholarship to study abroad. He worked in the government ever since the Saudi kingdom was established. Nazer said that when they were in New York with King Faisal attending United Nations’ meetings, the United States was still suffering from racism. High morals are not about hypocrisy but good manners and sincere kindness.One day, the king decided to go out with the accompanying delegation to eat at a restaurant in New York. Said Adam was one of those present and when food arrived, the waiter served it to the king and the delegation members but he excluded Adam because of his dark skin color. This made King Faisal stand up and serve food to Adam himself.The king’s act reflected his noble morals and it served as a lesson to people whose vision and attitude towards certain people in the heart of New York and in the heart of modern civilization was underdeveloped.
This story can be narrated to convey a moral message and so others can follow suit. High morals are not about hypocrisy but good manners and sincere kindness. This is the great stance of King Faisal.

The goals of Washington and Moscow in the Syrian War
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/February 08/16
Russia is not hiding its goals in the Syrian war, and is not ambiguous about its alliance with Iran, Iranian-backed militias, and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Moscow decided from the outset that the war in Syria is a Russian war on “Islamic terrorism”, and will not stop until it declares victory.
Whether it prevails or becomes bogged down in a quagmire in Syria, Russia – at the orders of President Vladimir Putin – has decided not to back down whatever the cost of the battle will be, including the cost of Syrian lives. It has become an existential war ever since the eruption of the so-called Arab Spring, before it was endorsed by the Western powers to propel Islamists to power. To Moscow, this was a threat to its national and strategic interest. Its alliance with Tehran, meanwhile, goes beyond their mutual agreement on shoring up Bashar al-Assad. To be sure, Moscow considers Islamic terrorism as purely Sunni terrorism, and finds the Shiite ally indispensable in its war with this “Sunni terrorism”.
Moscow: intent, Tehran: ready, Washington: supportive
Russia’s adventure in the Syrian conflict also proceeds from its conclusion that the U.S. has given it implicit consent, is a silent partner, and that when needed Washington is prepared to wave its stick and overturn equations. This is exactly what happened during the first week of the first round of negotiations between the regime and opposition delegations in Geneva, part of the Russian-owned and internationally implemented Vienna process. Efforts to launch negotiations were coupled by Russia with an intensification of airstrikes on the armed Syrian opposition. Moscow refused to stop its strikes, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even said Russia will not stop bombing Syria until terrorists there are defeated—whether in partnership with Iran, the U.S., or the devil himself.
Moscow is intent, Tehran is ready, and Washington is supportive. The Obama administration is still in awe of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and is willing to turn a blind eye to Iranian actions in Syria without accountability in appeasement of Moscow, while its eyes will be trained on Iranian elections and the expected fierce battle between moderate and hardline mullahs, who are backed by Revolutionary Guards that are overseeing the Iranian war in Syria. These elections are crucial, and it is important to stop and analyze them given their implications for Iran, Iranian-Saudi relations, and regional ambitions as seen by moderates and hardliners respectively.
The regional backers of the Syrian opposition are providing meagre support in comparison to the extent of military, political, and diplomatic support for the regime from Russia and Iran.
But first, the first round of the Geneva talks need a pause. The decision by the Syrian opposition’s Higher Negotiation Committee (HNC) to go to Geneva was the right one, regardless whether this took place under regional and U.S. pressure. Its presence in Geneva allowed the HNC to highlight the Russian military escalation in Syria in parallel with diplomatic escalation, through the stubbornness of the regime delegation and the pro-regime opposition figures. As a result, the negotiations were a farce rather than a serious attempt in placing Syria on a road to recovery.
The announcement by U.N. Envoy Staffan de Mistura suspending negotiations for three weeks before they started in earnest reflects the difficulty of holding these talks amid escalation of bombardment of and political pressure on the Syrian opposition. This strategy of making negotiations impossible should have been met with bold stances by the U.N. Secretary General and his envoy, with a clear call for Russia to end this approach. They have both failed in doing what it takes to make the talks a success and to address accusations that they are overlooking Iranian, Russian, and regime violations in a manner that has undermined the two men’s claim of neutrality and moral leadership.
The fact is that Russia and Iran are direct parties to the Syrian civil war. On the other hand, the backers of the Syrian opposition have washed their hands clean politically and militarily, using pretexts such as the fight against ISIS and al-Nusra Front, and such as ensuring the success of the negotiations. In short, the U.S. has decided to dissociate itself from the Syrian war, giving cover to Russia and Iran to act as they please in Syria. Meanwhile, the regional backers of the Syrian opposition are providing meagre support in comparison to the extent of military, political, and diplomatic support for the regime from Russia and Iran.
Jan. 2018 elections possible?
The balance of power on the ground is increasingly moving in the direction of partitioning Syria while keeping Bashar al-Assad in power on one part. The program drafted by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) for a transitional period in Syria is “overly optimistic”, according to de Mistura in a document published in Al-Hayat. De Mistura said it would not be possible to hold elections by January 2018, the end of the 18-month period stipulated in the Vienna plan. In other words, the timetable for a settlement in Syria will extend further if it is peaceful, and much further if it is not. This would increase Russia and Iran’s involvement in the costly quagmire, especially in light of falling oil prices and the collapse in the value of the Russian currency, at a time of U.S. isolationism and encouragement of others to intervene.
Indeed, Washington has no intention of stopping Tehran and Moscow in Syria, and their strategy of altering the balance of power on the ground in favor of the regime against the rebels that the Obama administration claim to support.
According to an expert closely familiar with internal Iranian politics, the battle for Khamenei’s succession is between hardliners themselves, some of whom see the suggestion of appointing a committee to succeed the Supreme Leader weakens the clerical regime of velayat-e faqih.
The Obama administration is determined to reinforce the truce with Iran, and is betting on the moderates to shift Iranian policy towards more cordial relations with Washington. The US is not concerned by the alliance between Moscow and Tehran, or Russian funding for nuclear projects in Iran. The Iranian fruit, according to US thinking, will be ripe for cultivation later, but there is no rush now except to invest in Iran strategically with one eye on the elections.
The Iranian elections will be held on February 26, but the results will not come out until six weeks later because of the Nowruz holiday. Iranians will elect deputies for the Shura Council, where hardliners currently control around 200 out of 295 seats, and members of the Assembly of Experts, which elects the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.
The Khamenei question
The current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has spent almost 25 years in power, previously holding the post of president. According to some experts, Khamenei has stage-four cancer, and is currently being treated by Iranian and German medical teams. Khamenei, nearly two months ago, himself hinted for the first time that the Assembly of Experts elects his successor, which was interpreted as a reference to his weak health condition.
The Assembly of Experts comprises 88 members, usually experts of Islamic jurisprudence, and is elected every eight years by the people on the same day the Shura Council elections are held. The assembly was chaired by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was then replaced with Mohammad Jannati, who died and was succeeded by Mohammad Yazdi. Iran's Assembly of experts is the leading elected body in the regime.
According to an expert closely familiar with internal Iranian politics, the battle for Khamenei’s succession is between hardliners themselves, some of whom see the suggestion of appointing a committee to succeed the Supreme Leader weakens the clerical regime of velayat-e faqih. The Revolutionary Guards, for their part, are categorically opposed to anything that reduces the influence of this system, and is fighting a fierce battle with moderates.
Experts also say current President Hassan Rowhani has a chance to succeed Khamenei. If this was decided, then Hassan Rowhani would resign as president and a new one would be elected.
The moderate camp includes Hashemi Rafsanjani, current President Hassan Rowhani, as well as Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, all in the centrist camp. Reformers include former President Mohammad Khatami, and are allied to the moderates and centrists.
The hardliner camp controls the levers of power currently, its real leader is Supreme Leader Khamenei. Out of 200 hardliner deputes, according to the Iran expert, there is a bloc dubbed the Rock Bloc, comprising around 80 deputies and effectively represent the Revolutionary Guards.
Another battlefield for the two camps is the Guardian Council of the Constitution, whose members are appointed by Khamenei, comprising 6 laymen and 6 clerics. The regime uses this council to vet candidates, to keep away undesirables from power. The council has disqualified many reformist candidates, including Hassan Khomeini.
The realists in the moderate camp want to reduce the number of hardliners, but the problem will be in the Assembly of Experts that elects the Supreme Leader.
In fact, Hashemi Rafsanjani's candidacy has been approved. But experts say it would be impossible for Rafsanjani to be elected Supreme Leader because he is confrontational. Rafsanjani himself has declared that he is not interested in failure, but wants to obtain more than 1 million votes to have a popular mandate. Experts also say current President Hassan Rowhani has a chance to succeed Khamenei. If this was decided, then Hassan Rowhani would resign as president and a new one would be elected.
Reformists vs hardliners
For the record, experts say that the three other names being circulated as possible successors to Khamenei are: Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, and Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who the experts say is the most knowledgeable but note that his problem is that he hides his views. Another name is Ayatollah Mohammad Mesbah Yazdi, who is a hawkish hardliner. Experts say that if it was up to the reformists, they would want Rafsanjani as head of the Assembly of Experts. Currently, Rafsanjani is the head of the Expediency Council, which deals with disputes such as those between the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts. The concern is for hardliners to continue to disqualify reformists and moderates from the final list of candidates for the Shura Council. Particularly so as a group of commanders from the Revolutionary Guards are for the first time running in the election in public. The battle is thus raging, so the question is who will come out on top? The pro-state camp led by Rowhani and backed by reformists and moderates, or the pro-revolutionary camp led by Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards?
There are around 53 million voters in Iran, 30 percent of whom are under the age of 30, and 70 percent under the age of 50. The balance of power in Iran today is different from 2009, when Ayatollah Khamenei controlled all levers of decision-making. At the time, it was said the elections had been rigged against the reformists, after which the hardliners brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the presidency. Today, Khamenei is weaker. President Rowhani has returned from Paris after a European tour during which he signed several lucrative contracts, giving the pro-state camp a boost. Some colleagues have written comparisons with how Khomeini returned from Paris in 1979, ushering in the revolution. Hassan Rowhani is today popular, perhaps the most popular in Iran. His experience in public service, ever since he headed the negotiations team with the US in 2003, thereby preempting US or Israeli invasion, and his presidency has forged his reputation as a statesman locally, regionally, and internationally. Those who know him closely say that Rowhani’s thinking is in line with the strategic policies of the Iranian state, but not with the appetite of the revolutionary camp for regional hegemony.
If the Iranian elections reflect a clear decision by the Iranian people to choose the pro-state camp, there will be a qualitative shift in the Iranian policy, especially after the moderates and reformists were able to conclude a historical nuclear deal that lifted the sanctions and allowed the Iranian president to go to Europe and bring back important contracts for development, rather than pompous promises of destruction and devastation.
The world is watching the Iranian elections, and the Arab region should follow suit.
Translated by Karim Traboulsi

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