LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 08/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today

Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust consume and where thieves break in and steal
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 06/16-21: "‘Whenever you fast, do not look dismal, like the hypocrites, for they disfigure their faces so as to show others that they are fasting. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward. But when you fast, put oil on your head and wash your face, so that your fasting may be seen not by others but by your Father who is in secret; and your Father who sees in secret will reward you. ‘Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust consume and where thieves break in and steal; but store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust consumes and where thieves do not break in and steal. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also."

We are ambassadors for Christ, since God is making his appeal through us
Second Letter to the Corinthians 05/20-21//06-1-7: "We are ambassadors for Christ, since God is making his appeal through us; we entreat you on behalf of Christ, be reconciled to God. For our sake he made him to be sin who knew no sin, so that in him we might become the righteousness of God. As we work together with him, we urge you also not to accept the grace of God in vain. For he says, ‘At an acceptable time I have listened to you, and on a day of salvation I have helped you.’ See, now is the acceptable time; see, now is the day of salvation! We are putting no obstacle in anyone’s way, so that no fault may be found with our ministry, but as servants of God we have commended ourselves in every way: through great endurance, in afflictions, hardships, calamities, beatings, imprisonments, riots, labours, sleepless nights, hunger; by purity, knowledge, patience, kindness, holiness of spirit, genuine love, truthful speech, and the power of God; with the weapons of righteousness for the right hand and for the left;".

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 08/16
Michel Aoun reiterates support for Hezbollah action in Syria/Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/February 07/16
Why Lebanon's presidential vacuum is getting more than a little awkward/Albawaba/February 07/16/
Aoun only candidate to suit National Charter: Kanaan/The Daily Star/February 07/16
Kerry Facing Revolt in Washington over Pro-Russia Play on Syria/Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
After Geneva Failure: Zero Credibility for the US/Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
Geneva: Kerry’s Worst Blunder/Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
The Pitfalls of Opening a Libyan Front against ISIL/Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
Druze and Jews forge special bond in memory of brave policeman/Yifat Erlich/Ynetnews/Published: 02.06.16
Give us our money back/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 07/16
As Syria talks fail, should we prepare for the worst/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/February 07/16
Peace only on Assad’s terms/Andrew Bowen/Al Arabiya/February 07/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 08/16
 Michel Aoun reiterates support for Hezbollah action in Syria
Why Lebanon's presidential vacuum is getting more than a little awkward
Aoun only candidate to suit National Charter: Kanaan
Adwan Says Agreement with Aoun Protects Taef Accord, Prevents 'Constituent Assembly'
Al-Rahi Urges Blocs to 'Make up their Minds as Country on Verge of Collapse
Salam: We Welcome any Unconditional Military Aid to Lebanon
Army Defuses 2 Bombs in Tripoli Building Depot
Gemayel Criticizes Hariri, Geagea for 'Surrendering, Giving Presidency to March 8'
Army Intelligence to Be Tasked with Naim Abbas Investigations after his Recent Confessions
Report: Aoun Sends Envoy to Iran over Presidential Nomination
Report: Berri Had Sought to Guarantee Quorum at Monday's Presidential Polls

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 08/16
Canada condemns North Korean long-range missile launch
‘Spare no effort’ to resolve Syrian crisis, says Pope
Israeli army lifts blockade of West Bank town
Syrian president’s mother Anissa Assad dies aged 86
UAE ready to send ground troops to Syria
Syrian army advances towards Turkish border town
Iraqi Kurds protest against Turkey, 3 police wounded
Tent that served as synagogue burned in W. Bank
Iraq’s Abadi dismisses Baghdad wall plans
Turkey: Reaching limits but will keep taking in refugees
Cross-border Yemeni shelling kills two in Saudi

Links From Jihad Watch Site for February 08/16
Washington Post writer: When I met Islamic State fighters, I couldn’t hate them
UK: Muslim magistrate resigns over anti-Semitic comments
Spains: 7 Muslims arrested, sent arms to jihadis disguised as humanitarian aid
Islamic State on rise in Libya: “Syria all over again”
Senior PA official: “Do we have to hijack planes for you to care about our cause?”
Pakistan facilitated massive Taliban offensive in Afghanistan
Washington Post: the Islamic State is losing ground
Hugh Fitzgerald: “What Century Do They Live In?”
What you can do to stop the blocking of jihad news on Facebook
200 Million Women Victimized by Female Genital Mutilation – on The Glazov Gang
Russia: Muslim migrants grope and molest women, get beaten up
UK: Somali Muslims living by their own laws

Michel Aoun reiterates support for Hezbollah action in Syria
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/February 07/16
http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/lebanon/michel-aoun-reiterates-support-for-hezbollah-action-in-syria-1.1667376
Beirut: Free Patriotic Movement leader and presidential hopeful Michel Aoun on Saturday reiterated his party’s alliance with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, a day after a large Hezbollah delegation visited him. The delegation on Friday included heavyweights such as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s chief political assistant, Haj Hussain Khalil, security leader Wafiq Safa, Minister of Industry, Hussain Al Haj Hassan, and two politburo members, Mahmoud Qmati, and Mustafa Haj Ali. During the meeting, Aoun did not appear to be happy as the group announced yet again it would be boycotting Monday’s scheduled session to elect a president. Lebanon has been deadlocked over the election of a president for almost two years with rival candidate Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea also nominated for the seat by the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition. But when Geagea, in a surprise move on January 18, decided to back Aoun, Hezbollah was caught in a dilemma. Critics say Hezbollah is not interested in electing a president, although Aoun stands as their official choice. Surely, if Geagea backed Aoun, it would be enough votes along with the pro-Syrian March 8 coalition’s votes to put him in the seat.
Despite their decision to boycott the session, they announced on Friday that Aoun remained their official candidate. Despite Aoun’s apparent frustration with Hezbollah over its refusal to attend the parliament session, he expressed his gratitude to the militia for its deployments in Syria, which according to him, had helped safeguard Lebanon. Aoun, a former army commander derided the Lebanese Armed Forces once again, insisting that the army was neither large enough nor capable of defending the country’s borders, saying the task thus necessitated Hezbollah involvement. Lebanon, he declared, was in a “state of war”, bizarre as his assertion sounds. “We are currently living in a state of war on Lebanese soil and we need Hezbollah to defend the Lebanese border,” Aoun clarified, adding: “Our army does not have the equipment or numbers to defend the border, so Hezbollah has graciously taken on this task because our families are in danger.” Few Lebanese understood what that meant, since the actual civil war ended in 1990. Interestingly, this latest affirmation means that the accord reached between Aoun and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on January 18, which saw both declaring that they were opposed to militant forces passing through Lebanon or any arms being smuggled back and forth, has taken new twists and turns. Clearly, a basic contradiction emerged, as the two positions cannot co-exist, which was what the Phalange Party leadership had pointed out a few weeks ago.After the FPM-LF agreement, Phalange leader Sami Gemayel sought clarification over Aoun’s position on the militia’s intervention in Syria, as he sought to know whether the latter’s accord with Geagea meant that Aoun was against Hezbollah fighting in Syria. Aoun’s latest response is bound to raise eyebrows, though the confusion is par for the course.

Why Lebanon's presidential vacuum is getting more than a little awkward
Albawaba/February 07/16/It’s no news that Lebanon has been without a head of state for quite some time now – former President Michel Suleiman stepped down without a successor in May 2014. Though the role of president, traditionally a Maronite Christian, has remained mostly ceremonial since the end of Lebanon’s civil war, the now almost two-year leadership vacuum has rustled growing discontent with longtime government deadlock.  Recent developments have pointed to two controversial frontrunners for the job. Future Movement leader Saad Hariri, a member of the anti-Assad March 14 camp, raised eyebrows in December when he nominated Suleiman Franjieh, a pro-Assad Maronite figure and member of the rival March 8 bloc. To complicate matters further, March 14 figure Samir Geagea announced his support for archenemy Michel Aoun’s presidential candidacy in January. Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement is aligned with March 8. The whole situation is a little bit awkward (and stunning), especially for those old enough to remember Lebanon’s civil war days - Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces, was behind the murder of Suleiman Franjeh’s father Tony amid intra-Christian squabbles for wartime power. And even younger Lebanese can remember the 2005 assassination of Saad Hariri's father, former PM and political giant Rafiq Hariri, likely at the hands of people linked to March 8 ally Hezbollah. Observers aren’t really sure what to make of the recent nominations. Some are optimistic that politicians want to mend divisive sectarian rivalries. Others are looking through less rosy lenses, speculating that Franjieh’s bid for president – and Hariri’s support – could cost the March 14 bloc some important Christian allies. Franjieh has also dismissed reports of disunity within the March 8 bloc, telling an-Nahar he held over two-thirds of the required parliamentary votes to become president. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has announced its support for Aoun, spurring opposing parties to outright denounce his bid for the job. In any case, government deadlock is a sore subject for most Lebanese, especially after the late-summer 2015 “You Stink” protests in Beirut, which spoke against the government’s inability (amongst a plethora of other things) to get rid of growing mounds of garbage.

Aoun only candidate to suit National Charter: Kanaan
The Daily Star/February 07/16
BEIRUT: Free Patriotic Movement MP Ibrahim Kanaan Sunday said that his party’s founder, Michel Aoun, has become the only presidential nominee whose candidacy comes in line with the National Charter after the Maarab agreement. The Maarab agreement is in reference to the historical reconciliation with his war-time foe Aoun last month at Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea’s residence, where Geagea surprisingly nominated the latter for the country’s top post. “The LF’s nomination of Aoun doesn’t come as retaliation, but instead came after a year of negotiations, and the FPM’s aim from these sorts of agreements goes beyond the presidency,” Kanaan told Voice of Lebanon 93.3. Kanaan emphasized that the LF MPs would take part in the Monday Feb. 8 session, set to elect a president, a day after a Hezbollah delegation announced that it would not be attending the session “until the circumstances were right to secure Aoun’s election.”Many allies in Lebanon have been at loggerheads for months after being nominated by their long-time rivals, putting into serious question the political alliances which once shaped Lebanon’s two major camps: March 8 and March 14. While Aoun is now supported by the LF in addition to Hezbollah, Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh was endorsed by his rival Future Movement head Saad Hariri. Consequently, Geagea, Hariri’s original candidate, was pushed out of the equation, while ties became strained between long-time allies Frangieh and Aoun. “Why is it that in the premiership, the person who represents the Sunni community the most is appointed, while for the presidency, this (logic) is refused?” Kanaan asked. Under Lebanon’s sectarian system, the president must be a Maronite Christian while the prime minister a Sunni Muslim. The parliament speaker must be a Shiite Muslim.
Kanaan said that some had refused to hold a poll or refer to the people for the parliamentary or presidential elections, and to this day “are obstructing the approval of a new electoral law which assures true partnership and actual parity.” “There is nothing impossible in politics when there are genuine intentions, and the FPM is willing to do anything to help bring factions closer together. Therefore, there is no reason for Hezbollah’s MPs not to give their opinion in Maarab or LF’s MPs to do the same in (Hezbollah stronghold) Haret Hreik,” he said. The Metn MP touched on his party’s tense ties with Speaker and Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri, saying that the differences with the latter would eventually turn into an agreement as there is no “strategic distance” between the two sides. “The injustice practiced against Christians since the Taef (Accord) is the responsibility of all previous governments and is not linked to one ministry or another... There must be recognition of this and a (Christian-Muslim) rebalance and cooperation,” Kanaan said. His party had recently accused Finance Minister Ali Hasan Khalil and Public Works and Transport Minister Ghazi Zeaiter- both from the Amal Movement- of carrying out administrative appointments which were not in favor of Christians and spending less money on public works in Christian-majority areas. Both accused ministers held press conferences this week denying such claims, detailing what had happened in both their ministries, dismissing rumors that they were “targeting the Christian-Muslim balance."Kanaan also rejected any extra VAT on citizens, in light of rumors that the government was seeking to add a tax on fuel prices due to the fiscal deficit. “No state imposes taxes on its citizens whenever it needs revenues...The government has lost billions (of dollars) over the years because of the trash (sector), so there is a lack of proper management, and only a proper (state) budget can assess what we have in revenues,” Kanaan said. Lebanon has witnessed a waste crisis since mid-July after a notorious landfill was shut down with no alternative.
Governments have failed on passing official state budgets since 2005.

Adwan Says Agreement with Aoun Protects Taef Accord, Prevents 'Constituent Assembly'
Naharnet/February 08/16/Lebanese Forces deputy chief MP George Adwan noted Sunday that the LF's latest rapprochement with its long-time Christian rival the Free Patriotic Movement has the ability to preserve the Taef Accord – the country's post-civil war constitution – and to prevent any attempt to impose a so-called constituent assembly. “We have turned the page on the constituent assembly and we are committed to the Taef Accord which (FPM founder) General (Michel) Aoun has endorsed through his agreement with the LF,” said Adwan in an interview on MTV. “Our first choice is building the state according to the ten points on which we have agreed with General Aoun,” he added.In a surprise development, LF leader Samir Geagea endorsed Aoun's presidential bid during a landmark ceremony in Maarab last month. The declaration followed months of rapprochement talks between the two parties and a so-called Declaration of Intent joint paper. Some observers have suggested that Geagea's move came in response to al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri's proposal to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency although the LF chief has denied this. “The presidential vote will remain shelved until someone convinces Franjieh to withdraw and we are facing a continued vacuum,” Adwan said on Sunday. “Franjieh's withdrawal would facilitate rapprochement between al-Mustaqbal and General Aoun,” he noted. “The real candidate today is General Aoun and vacuum is the main enemy for all Lebanese,” Adwan warned. He also revealed that the LF was seeking to convince Aoun to “show openness towards al-Mustaqbal” in a bid to boost his chances to reach the Baabda Palace. “After the Maarab meeting, General Aoun has become the strongest Christian candidate for the presidency,” Adwan added. “Together with General Aoun we have reached a common national place and the LF's nomination of Aoun has nothing to do with the nomination of MP Franjieh,” he went on to say. Moreover, Adwan stressed that the LF is “keen” on its ties with al-Mustaqbal and the Kataeb Party, noting that it has never been “in disagreement with them.” As for the relation with Hizbullah in light of the rapprochement with Aoun, Adwan described Hizbullah as an “essential component” of the country. “We have to coexist with it despite the points of contention and the disagreements can only be resolved through dialogue,” Adwan added.

Al-Rahi Urges Blocs to 'Make up their Minds as Country on Verge of Collapse'
Naharnet/February 08/16/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi stressed on Sunday that the Lebanese people are “entitled to live in a country that respects their rights.”He said during his Sunday sermon: “We urge political and parliamentary blocs that are obstructing the presidential elections to make up their minds as soon as possible because the country is on the verge of collapse.”The Lebanese people have the right to a state “that believes in the general good and that adheres to the constitution, National Pact, and democratic system that Lebanon has adopted and that is mentioned in the opening chapters of the constitution.”Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Conflicts between the rival March 8 and March 14 camps have thwarted all attempts at electing a successor. A presidential elections session is scheduled for Monday.

Salam: We Welcome any Unconditional Military Aid to Lebanon
Naharnet/February 08/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam stressed that the army is capable of confronting the terrorist groups that are seeking to destabilize Lebanon, reported the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat on Sunday. He told the daily: “Our army and security forces are waging a war against terrorism and Lebanon's enemies, starting with Israel and we therefore welcome any unconditional military and security aid, even from Iran and any other country.” He said that he has no fears of the emergence of divisions among the army, saying that the Military Command is performing its duties “ to the utmost and it is unifying ranks.”“We have not sensed anything to indicate otherwise,” added the premier. Furthermore, Salam said that “there is nothing preventing the army from entering the northeastern border town of Arsal”, whose outskirts frequently witness clashes with extremist groups from Syria. The prime minister noted however that the presence of the residents of Arsal is a deterrent for the army to enter the town “because such a step will incur a heavy price.”The army is instead “doing all it can” to confront the extremist groups on the outskirts of the town, in spite the presence of 120,000 Syrian refugees and 35,000 Lebanese Arsal residents. “The military will continue with this daily duty as long as the terrorist groups are determined to keep the border situation unstable,” Salam declared. On Wednesday the army carried out a preemptive attack on militants taking the Lebanese-Syrian border as a refuge, killing six Islamic State militants and arresting 16 others in its biggest operation against the extremist group on the outskirts of Arsal. The arrested suspects told investigators that the terrorists were plotting an attack on the army similar to the 2014 assault that left scores of policemen and troops dead and injured in Arsal.

Army Defuses 2 Bombs in Tripoli Building Depot
Naharnet/February 08/16/The army succeeded on Sunday in dismantling two bombs that were discovered in the northern city of Tripoli, announced the National News Agency.
It said that members of the military grew suspicious of an object in Tripoli's Nejmeh Square and upon inspection discovered two bombs. According to an army statement issued later in the day, the two bombs were found in a building's depot. “After obtaining information about the presence of two suspicious objects inside the depot of the Dalati Building in Tripoli's Nejmeh Square, army forces cordoned off the area and evacuated civilians from the aforementioned building and from the nearby buildings,” the statement said.“Following inspection by a military expert, the two suspicious objects turned out to be two bombs that were set for detonation,” the army added. It said the first was “a hand-made bomb consisted of three pipes loaded with 1.5 kilograms of explosives and connected to a detonator and a slow combustion fuse cord.”The second explosive device consisted of “a gas cylinder, 10 kilos of explosives, a fuse cord and an electric remotely-controlled detonator.”“The military expert defused the two bombs and transferred them to a safe location as a probe got underway to identify the culprits under the supervision of the relevant judicial authorities,” the army added. Later on Sunday, Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) reported that "Roumieh prison inmate Moumen Hajar confessed during interrogation that the two bombs are present in a depot that he owns." "He told security agencies about their place," which allowed the army to defuse them, the radio station added.

Gemayel Criticizes Hariri, Geagea for 'Surrendering, Giving Presidency to March 8'
Naharnet/February 08/16/Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel hit out Sunday at al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, accusing them of bowing to the March 8 camp and granting it the country's presidency without an electoral battle.
“Geagea and Hariri have committed a mistake by effectively giving the presidency to March 8,” said Gemayel during an interview on al-Jadeed TV. “The competition is now limited to the March 8 camp and there is no balance. What's strange is that two March 14 leaders have decided to back two March 8 leaders and (Hizbullah chief) Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was right when he said that they have won,” he added.“Hariri and Geagea have surrendered after 10 years of perseverance and the offering of martyrs. If a March 8 president is elected, it would be a disastrous development, unless the two candidates decide to change their stances,” Gemayel warned. He was referring to Hariri's proposal of nominating Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency and Geagea's surprising endorsement of the presidential bid of Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, his long-time Christian rival.
“I don't understand why we don't try to preserve balance in the country and I call on Geagea and Hariri to explain to the Lebanese what pushed them to cede our decision after 10 years of steadfastness,” Gemayel added, noting that he has not received a “clear answer” from Hariri. “Everyone is justifying this under the political pragmatism slogan. Had we endorsed this approach in 2005, (ex-minister) Pierre (Gemayel) and (MP) Gebran (Tueni) would have been alive now,” Gemayel went on to say, referring to two vocal March 14 figures who were assassinated in 2005 and 2006. Asked about Monday's electoral session, Gemayel stressed that Kataeb will not vote for Aoun or Franjieh, noting that the party might vote for its former chief Amin Gemayel or cast blank votes. “Aoun and Franjieh must accept the democratic game. There are candidates who have declared their nominations and there are parties that have decided to back them, so let them all go to parliament to practice the democratic game,” Gemayel urged. “What would the response of the Syrian opposition and the terrorists there be if a candidate who supports (Syrian President) Bashar Assad becomes president and if the state's official stance becomes supportive of Bashar Assad? They will respond against all Lebanese,” Kataeb's chief warned. “If Lebanon officially enters the Syrian equation, bombings might hit anywhere,” he cautioned. Criticizing Aoun's recent stance on Hizbullah's involvement in the Syrian conflict, Gemayel added: “The president must unify the domestic front and protect it from the outside forces, but Aoun's stance yesterday was supportive of Hizbullah's presence in Syria.” “What will we tell the Lebanese if entire Lebanon becomes implicated in this stance?” he asked. “If a candidate who endorses the Syrian regime's stance becomes president, what would we tell the Sunni community and what extremism we would be sending it to? What would we be committing against the Lebanese who are in the Gulf?” Gemayel added, explaining possible repercussions if a pro-Assad candidate is elected. Turning to Hizbullah's stances, Gemayel said Kataeb is against “Hizbullah's practices.”“Their biggest mistake is their systematic destruction of the democratic life in Lebanon. A civilized country cannot have two arsenals of weapons and two laws and it cannot contain a group monopolizing the decisions of war and peace,” he explained.

Army Intelligence to Be Tasked with Naim Abbas Investigations after his Recent Confessions
Naharnet/February 08/16/General Prosecutor Judge Samir Hammoud announced that he has tasked State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr to send him a copy of the testimony made by Palestinian detainee Naim Abbas, reported the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat on Sunday. Hammoud told the daily that he had ordered the Army Intelligence to carry out preliminary investigations with Abbas over his recent testimony on the assassination of General Francois al-Hajj and plans to assassinate Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat. A judicial source told the daily that the investigation in Abbas' case “has not yet reached serious leads over the perpetrators of the Hajj assassination.”Suspicions however surround the Fatah al-Islam group, seeing as Hajj was organizing the army's operations against the extremist group during the 2007 clashes. The group waged months-long battles with the army in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp in the North. Hajj was killed in a car bombing in December later that year. Media reports on Saturday said that Abbas had confessed to the Military Court that the Syrian regime had ordered Hajj's assassination “because he had been requested to demarcate the Lebanese-Syrian border.” Two other detainees, Mohammed Ezzeddine and Salim Abou al-Ghosh, admitted that they had provided Abbas with the necessary explosive material to carry out Hajj's assassination. Abbas denied however that he was involved in the murder. He did reveal however that a detainee named Toufiq Taha had informed him that a “mediator from the Syrian regime had asked him to assassinate MP Walid Jumbat.” Abbas, a top official of the extremist Abdullah Azzam Brigades, was arrested in February 2014 on terrorism charges. The Brigades has claimed responsibility for several bombings that have targeted Hizbullah strongholds over the past few years since the war in Syria erupted in 2011.

Report: Aoun Sends Envoy to Iran over Presidential Nomination
Naharnet/February 08/16/Head of the Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun has sent an envoy to Iran “for discussions,” reported the Kuwaiti daily al-Anba on Sunday. It revealed that his media advisor Jean Aziz has been sent to Tehran for this mission. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, who is also a member of the bloc, is preparing for a tour of European countries “to promote Aoun's run for the presidency,” added al-Anba. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Conflicts between the rival March 8 and March 14 camps have thwarted all attempts at electing a successor. Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea endorsed in January Aoun's bid for the presidency in a landmark deal between the two long-time rivals. The lawmaker is running for the post along with Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh, also a member of the March 8 alliance. The next presidential elections session is set for Monday amid a boycott of Hizbullah, Aoun's ally in the March 8 camp. Party officials said after meeting the MP on Saturday that its lawmakers will only attend the session if an agreement is reached to elect Aoun as president.

Report: Berri Had Sought to Guarantee Quorum at Monday's Presidential Polls
Naharnet/February 08/16/Hizbullah announced over the weekend its boycott of Monday's presidential elections session in a step that has gone against the wishes of Speaker Nabih Berri, reported the Kuwaiti daily al-Anba on Sunday. Sources from the speaker told the daily that he “had sought to ensure the necessary quorum for Monday's meeting, but he was not lucky.”Berri had relayed his demand to Hizbullah's top security official Wafiq Safa through his advisor Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil. Hizbullah official Hussein Khalil said on Saturday that the party's lawmakers will only attend Monday's electoral session if an agreement is reached to elect its candidate the founder of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun as president. “When an agreement is reached on the election of Gen. Aoun as president, then we will be the first to arrive at the parliament to elect him,” said Khalil after a meeting with the MP. A Hizbullah delegation visited Change and Reform bloc head MP Aoun marking ten years since the party and the FPM signed their Memorandum of Understanding. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Conflicts between the rival March 8 and March 14 camps have thwarted all attempts at electing a successor. Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea endorsed in January Aoun's bid for the presidency in a landmark deal between the two long-time rivals. Geagea had said that the endorsement will serve as a “test” for Hizbullah and its commitment to the election of its ally Aoun as president. The lawmaker is running for the post along with Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh, also a member of the March 8 alliance.

Canada condemns North Korean long-range missile launch
February 7, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Canada strongly condemns yesterday’s long-range missile launch by North Korea using sanctioned ballistic missile technology. This launch, like North Korea’s prohibited January 6, 2016, nuclear test, constitutes a grave threat to international peace and security and to stability on the Korean Peninsula.
“Any launch by North Korea using ballistic missile technology directly violates successive United Nations Security Council Resolutions. North Korea’s actions show a blatant disregard for its international obligations, and Canada calls on North Korea to cease these disruptive and provocative actions and to return to compliance with its international obligations.
“We will continue to work closely with international and regional partners to respond appropriately to North Korea’s actions, in an effort to curb this unwarranted, irresponsible and dangerous behaviour.
“Canada strongly supports efforts underway in the UN Security Council to agree to significant measures to hold North Korea accountable for its actions.”
Associated links

‘Spare no effort’ to resolve Syrian crisis, says Pope
AFP, Vatican City Sunday, 7 February 2016/Pope Francis on Sunday urged the world community to make every effort to revive the Syrian peace talks and appealed for unstinting generosity for civilians fleeing the conflict. “I appeal to the international community to spare no effort to urgently bring parties back to the negotiating table,” the pontiff said at his weekly Angelus prayer. “A political solution to the conflict is the only way to guarantee a future of reconciliation and peace for this dear, suffering country,” Francis said, before asking worshippers in St. Peter’s Square to join him in reciting the Catholic prayer “Ave Maria” for Syria. The pope also said he was deeply concerned about the plight of civilians forced to flee their homes as fighting raged. “I hope that, thanks to generous solidarity, there will be the necessary help to ensure their survival and dignity,” he said. The Syrian peace talks were suspended on Wednesday amid renewed fighting on the ground, with advances into rebel-held territory by the Russian-backed regime in Damascus. The negotiations were suspended until February 25. U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura says he will meet in Munich, Germany, next Friday with countries that are part of an international group seeking a solution to the five-year-old war.

Israeli army lifts blockade of West Bank town
AFP, Jerusalem Sunday, 7 February 2016/The Israeli army Saturday said it was lifting a blockade imposed on the West Bank town of Qabatiya, from where Palestinians carried out a Jerusalem attack that killed a policewoman. “Based on an assessment of the situation, it was decided to lift the blockade of Qabatiya,” a military spokeswoman told AFP. Three men from Qabatiya, near Jenin, on Wednesday attacked police with guns and knives outside Jerusalem’s Old City, killing a female officer and wounding another before being shot dead. Following the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met top security officials, who decided to bolster forces in the northern West Bank. The army also cut access to the northern West Bank town of 15,000 people and began a security sweep of the area. It arrested 10 people, relatives and acquaintances of the three young people believed to be 19 to 20 years old who killed the Israeli border policewoman. During the operation, the army also measured up the houses of the assailants for later demolition, a common practice after deadly attacks on Israelis. There were also clashes between soldiers and residents during the sweep of Qabatiya. Several people from the town, which was turbulent during the first and second intifadas, have been killed in the violence that has rocked the Palestinian Territories and Israel for four months. The unrest has claimed the lives of 165 Palestinians, 26 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean since it erupted last October 1. Although most of the Palestinians were killed carrying out attacks, others died during clashes and demonstrations.

Syrian president’s mother Anissa Assad dies aged 86
AFP, Damascus Sunday, 7 February 2016/The mother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Anissa Makhlouf al-Assad, died on Saturday at the age of 86, state media reported. The former first lady and widow of ex-president Hafez al-Assad died in the capital Damascus, the official SANA news agency reported. Throughout Syria’s nearly five-year war and even when her husband Hafez ruled the country with an iron fist, she had kept a low profile and was rarely mentioned in the media. In 2012, one year after the start of the conflict, the European Union included her on a list of dozens of Syrian figures, including Assad and other family members, slapped with an asset freeze and travel ban.Born in Latakia in 1930, Anissa married Hafez al-Assad in 1957 and the couple had five children. Two of them have died -- Bassel who was being groomed to become president and Majd. Anissa is survived by Bashar, his younger brother Maher and their sister Bushra.

UAE ready to send ground troops to Syria
Reuters, Abu Dhabi Sunday, 7 February 2016/The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said on Sunday it was ready to send ground troops to Syria as part of an international coalition to fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militant group. Asked if the UAE was ready to send troops if need be, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said at a media briefing in the Emirati capital Abu Dhabi: "This has been our position throughout." "We have been frustrated at the slow pace .... of confronting Daesh," he added, referring to ISIS by its Arabic acronym. "We are not talking about thousands of troops but we are talking about troops on the ground that will lead the way ... that will support ... and I think our position remains the same and we will have to see how this progresses," he said. Gargash added "U.S. leadership on this" would be a prerequisite for the UAE. Saudi Arabia said last week it was ready to participate in any ground operations in Syria if the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS militants in Syria and Iraq decided to start such operations. Syria would resist any ground incursion into its territory and send the aggressors home "in coffins", its foreign minister said on Saturday, in comments clearly aimed at Sunni Arab countries that have said they were ready to join such an operation.

Syrian army advances towards Turkish border town
AFP, Beirut Sunday, 7 February 2016/Syrian government troops advanced Sunday toward a rebel town near the Turkish border as they pressed a Russian-backed offensive that has prompted tens of thousands to flee, a monitor said. The town of Tal Rifaat is around 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) from the Turkish frontier, where Syrians who have fled fighting near Aleppo city have been gathering since the assault was launched Monday. It is one of the last rebel strongholds in the north of Aleppo province and government troops are just seven kilometers away, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said regime troops want to push north to the border with Turkey to prevent rebels and weapons from entering Syrian territory. Syrian pro-government newspaper Al-Watan said Sunday that Tal Rifaat would be a major prize for the regime. "If it falls, the army will be able to progress and seize control of all of the northern part of Aleppo province," the paper said.Regime forces backed by intense Russian air strikes have closed in on Aleppo city in their most significant advance since Moscow intervened in September in support of President Bashar al-Assad's government. Syria's mainstream rebels are now threatened with collapse after the regime severed their main supply line to Aleppo city. Opposition forces along with roughly 350,000 civilians are in rebel-held areas of the divided city of Aleppo and face the risk of a government siege. Punitive blockades have been employed elsewhere in the nearly five-year civil war, causing dire humanitarian situations including starvation. Since Saturday night government forces have surrounded the rebel bastion of Daraya in Damascus province.

Iraqi Kurds protest against Turkey, 3 police wounded
The Associated Press, Irbil Sunday, 7 February 2016/Protests against Turkey in Iraq's northern Kurdish region have turned violent, with three police officers wounded. Hundreds of protesters gathered Sunday outside the United Nations compound in the northern city of Irbil calling for an end to Turkish airstrikes against Kurdish militants. Local media reported that three police were wounded. Turkey began launching airstrikes in Iraq and Syria in July 2015 as part of the U.S.-led coalition's fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group. In Syria it has targeted the ISIS group, while in Iraq it has taken aim at the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency against Ankara.

Tent that served as synagogue burned in W. Bank
AFP, Jerusalem Sunday, 7 February 2016/Suspected arsonists in the West Bank have burned a tent that served as a synagogue dedicated to three Israeli teenagers killed by Palestinians, provoking an angry reaction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The tent near the Karmei Tzur settlement in the south of the occupied Palestinian territory burned on Saturday, causing no injuries but leaving Jewish religious books damaged and destroyed, police said. Israeli media reported that police suspected residents of the nearby Palestinian town of Halhul. Netanyahu alleged on his Facebook page that the synagogue “was set on fire by Palestinians”. “We will prosecute the perpetrators of this crime. I expect the international community to condemn the desecration of a synagogue, an act that is the result of incessant Palestinian incitement.” The synagogue was dedicated to Naftali Frenkel, Gilad Shaer and Eyal Yifrach, who were abducted from a hitchhiking stop near the flashpoint West Bank city of Hebron in 2014 and later killed. Their bodies were discovered in the area. A few weeks after their kidnapping, 16-year-old Palestinian Mohammed Abu Khdeir was abducted and burned alive in a revenge plot by three Israelis. Two of them -- who were 16 at the time of the killing -- were sentenced on Thursday, with one receiving a life term and the other 21 years. The incidents were part of a spiral of violence that led up to the 2014 Gaza war.

Iraq’s Abadi dismisses Baghdad wall plans
The Associated Press, Baghdad Sunday, 7 February 2016/The Iraqi Prime Minister is dismissing plans to build a wall around the Iraqi capital, according to a statement released by his office Saturday night. The plan for the wall was originally drafted by the Interior Ministry as an effort to prevent ISIS group attacks inside Baghdad. “Baghdad is the capital for all Iraqis and it’s not possible for a wall or a fence to isolate the city,” Haider al-Abadi said in the statement. The Interior Ministry’s spokesman, police Brig Gen Saad Maan, told The Associated Press last week that work had begun on the wall and that it would reduce the number of checkpoints inside the city. Bombings and attacks are still a near daily occurrence in Baghdad, mainly targeting security forces and the country’s Shiite majority.

Turkey: Reaching limits but will keep taking in refugees
The Associated Press, Kilis, Turkey Sunday, 7 February 2016/Turkey has reached the end of its “capacity to absorb” refugees but will continue to take them in, Turkey’s deputy premier said Sunday as his country faced mounting pressure to open its border, where tens of thousands of Syrians fleeing a government onslaught have arrived. Turkish authorities say up to 35,000 Syrians have massed along the border, which remained closed for a third day on Sunday. The governor for the Turkish border province of Kilis said Saturday that Turkey would provide aid to the displaced within Syria, but would only open the gates in the event of an “extraordinary crisis.” Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus told CNN-Turk television that Turkey is now hosting a total of 3 million refugees, including 2.5 million Syrians. “Yes, Turkey has reached the end of its capacity to absorb (refugees),” Kurtulmus said. “But in the end, these people have nowhere else to go. Either they will die beneath the bombings and Turkey will ... watch the massacre like the rest of the world, or we will open our borders.” Kurtulmus said some 15,000 refugees from Syria were admitted in the past few days, without elaborating. He put the number of refugees being cared for at the other side of the border at 30,000. “At the moment, we are admitting some, and are trying to keep others there (in Syria) by providing them with every kind of humanitarian support,” Kurtulmus added. “We are not in a position to tell them not to come. If we do, we would be abandoning them to their deaths.”The deputy premier did not explain why the Turkish border gate at Oncupinar, opposite the Bab al-Salameh crossing in Syria, was being kept closed or why tens of thousands of refugees were not immediately being let in. On Saturday, the European Union urged Turkey to open its borders at a meeting between EU and Turkish officials in Amsterdam, saying it was providing aid to Ankara for that purpose. EU nations have committed 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) to Turkey to help refugees, part of incentives aimed at persuading Turkey to do more to stop thousands of migrants from leaving for Greece. Kurtulmus estimated that - “in the worst case scenario” - as many as 1 million more refugees could flee the Syrian city of Aleppo and its regions. The war between Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government and Syrian rebels began in 2011. It has killed over 250,000 people and forced millions to flee the country.

Cross-border Yemeni shelling kills two in Saudi
By AFP Riyadh Sunday, 7 February 2016/A Saudi soldier and a civilian have been killed in cross-border shelling from rebel-controlled northern Yemen, authorities said late Saturday. A Saudi patrol was hit on Saturday morning in the southwestern region of Assir, killing the soldier, the interior ministry said in a statement carried by state news agency SPA. Later in the day, the southwestern city of Najran was struck, leaving dead a foreign resident, a civil defense spokesman said in a statement on SPA. About 90 civilians and soldiers have died from shelling and skirmishes along the border since March, when a Saudi-led military coalition began air and ground action in Yemen. The coalition is backing Yemen government in a bid to push back Iran-backed Shiite Huthi rebels who overran Sanaa in September 2014. The United Nations says more than 6,100 people have been killed in the conflict since March, about half of them civilians, and some 30,000 wounded.

Kerry Facing Revolt in Washington over Pro-Russia Play on Syria
Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
http://mebriefing.com/?p=2152&utm_source=Issue+112_February_06_2015_&utm_campaign=Issue+112&utm_medium=email
On the very day that Secretary of State John Kerry expected to start the Geneva talks on Syria, the BBC Panorama news magazine aired a devastating expose of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s criminal looting of Russia for his personal power and wealth. That Jan. 25 television show prominently featured a top Obama Administration official, Adam Szubin, who, since 2006, was in charge of the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC). Last April, Szubin was promoted by President Obama to the post of Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. In both positions, Szubin has been in charge of implementing all US government sanctions. He led the effort to sanction top Russian officials and Putin cronies, following the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014, following the ouster of Ukraine’s President Yanukovych.
Szubin told BBC, “We’ve seen him [Putin] enriching his friends, his close allies, and marginalizing those who he doesn’t view as friends, using state assets. Whether that’s Russia’s energy wealth, whether it’s other state contracts, he directs those to whom he believes will serve him and excludes those who don’t. To me, that is a picture of corruption.”
Two days after the BBC Panorama broadcast, President Obama’s White House press spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters that Szubin’s statements were “the best reflection of the administration’s views.”
In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kerry’s ostensible partner in the Syria peace talks, accused the Obama Administration of “purposely stepping up tensions.”
Szubin’s actions reflected a growing concern among Obama National Security Council officials and other in the Administration that Kerry has overstepped his bounds in making concessions to Putin and Lavrov, in order to keep the Syrian peace talks from collapsing before they even get started. The turning point, particularly for Pentagon officials, was when Kerry came out of a meeting last December in Russia with Putin and Lavrov and announced that the US had dropped the idea of “regime change” in Damascus. This was seen as a capitulation to the Russian commitment to keep Bashar Assad in power for as long as possible. Angry Pentagon officials referred to Kerry henceforth as “Lavrov’s lapdog” and worse.
In the aftermath of the Szubin interview to BBC, further moves have been made against top Russian officials and Putin allies, this time from within the State Department itself. On Jan. 29, Congressman Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat and leading human rights activist, issued a press release, praising the State Department for adding five more names of Russian officials to the sanctions list, mandated under the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act, a bill that McGovern helped to shepherd through the Congress in 2012. It will once again be the responsibility of Szubin to execute the sanctions order.
However, after Rep. McGovern issued the press release, Secretary Kerry blocked the release of the new sanctions, ostensibly for technical reasons that will only delay the action. As of this writing, the new sanctions have not been announced.
The two recent incidents underscore that there is a growing discomfort within the Democratic Party and Obama Administration ranks over John Kerry’s concessions to Russia to keep the doors open in Geneva. Kerry’s diplomatic success with the P5+1 talks with Iran were based on close cooperation with both Russia and China, often at the expense of US collaboration with key European allies France and Britain.
Kerry is pursuing the same recipe that succeeded with Iran on Syria—and the parallels may be a stretch beyond the feasible. The P5+1 deal changed the dynamics in the region, with traditional US Gulf allies, led by Saudi Arabia, seeing the Iran nuclear deal as part of a broader US realignment, against their interests. Washington’s political capital with the Gulf Cooperation Council, Turkey and Israel has diminished, and will remain diminished—at least until the current Administration leaves office.
John Kerry is well aware of that shifted dynamic, and he is prepared to live with it, by working more closely with Russia, and with UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura. He can only walk that tightrope if he continues to enjoy the backing of President Obama and the Pentagon. And that backing is now more in doubt.

After Geneva Failure: Zero Credibility for the US
Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
http://mebriefing.com/?p=2151&utm_source=Issue+112_February_06_2015_&utm_campaign=Issue+112&utm_medium=email
We have two big screens before us, one showing the battlefields of Syria and the other is opened on the Geneva talks, before their official suspension, between the warring parties. Is there common sense connecting the two?
In the battlefields, and advised by Russian officers, regime forces supported by Hezbollah and other pro-Iran militias, are making impressive advances particularly around Aleppo. Regime forces have already connected their lines in the North West of the old city to allied forces in the North (Nubl and Zahra). This success means that a considerable part of the countryside of Aleppo would fall under their control and has already cut off the supplies to the opposition areas in Aleppo.
The attacks are extended to near the Industrial Zone east of Aleppo. A contingent area of control extending from the North East of Aleppo to regime Ares in the West of the city will provide a clamp of pro regime forces enabling them to eventually advance to the strongholds of the opposition in the old city. If happened, this will be an important qualitative shift in the dynamics of the Syrian war.
Regime forces supported by Mr. Putin’s air force may put Aleppo under siege for months which will result in famine and death of large numbers of civilians as we see in Madaya and other areas of Syria. Russian air raids focused on the North and East of Aleppo in a clear sign of where the Assad ground forces would advance in the coming few weeks.
Parallel to the intensive air raids in the region north of Aleppo, similar raids are fiercely taking place in the Qunaitra, Dara and Duma regions in the South and the Western Ghota of Damascus. Homs was not saved from the wrath coming from the sky as the southern region of the city was intensively bombed as well.
Several points emerge from the general map of the Russian-Iranian-Assad general military offensive on the ground:
* What defines the course of operation is indeed what we described at the early days of the Russian military operations in Syria last fall. It is to secure a mini state to Assad in what is called “the meaningful Syria” which is the relatively densely populated Western part of the country and to clear a buffer zone around the “borders” of this mini state.
Therefore, it has become ridiculous to say that the Russians are fighting ISIL. The objective of Moscow has nothing to do with ISIL. Its military strikes are defined in terms of securing the Western half of the country and not in confronting ISIL, at least for now. The larger objective is to force Syrians into submission by the use of barrel bombs and famine. In other words, the aim of the intensive continuation of the Putin-Assad attacks is to reach a military solution to the Syrian crisis.
* The regime and its backers are indeed making an important breakthrough in the military front, all the while participating in the talks in Geneva. Which was suspended after the withdrawal of the opposition. That will make a resumption of the peace effort, from where its Geneva round started, impossible. An introduction of a real change on the balance of power on the ground is necessary before we can see any serious prospects for peace.
* Opposition forces are obviously lacking any kind of collective leadership. Their backers stopped aiding them at the beginning of the Geneva talks at the request of Secretary Kerry.
* We have seen similar regime advances in the past. But this time it is different due to the effective participation of Russia’s air force and the lack of air defense weapons in the hands of the opposition.
* If this trend is sustained, the Geneva talks would have confirmed the worst suspicions among the Syrians: that the talks aimed at splitting the opposition and provide a political coverage, made by the Obama administration and by Russia, to impose a military solution while convincing the opposition that there is a serious diplomatic solution through talks.
* The Syrian President, aided by Russia and Iran, hopes he would be able at one point down that road to claim clear control over the Western part of the country. The fight for the rest of Syria would then be looked at from the perspective of preserving the Western mini state. Syria’s civil war would have been be redefined. It would be presented as a war against “an insurgency” and “terrorism” in the East, not as a revolution that started peacefully and was forced to resort to arms under the regime’s brutal violence.
* The East of Syria will witness a mixture of forces of different groups which would opt to continuing the fight. Their hardcore would indeed be the most ideologically extreme groups. These fanatics will be able to attract many additional fighters. The various groups which chose to carry on the fight would be under pressure to reach a kind of modus operandi and suspend their differences with the each other, if not merge altogether.
* Stability in the Assad controlled areas in the West will take quite some time to be reached, if ever. It will require a heavy dose of violence by the regime against any sign of protest in his controlled West Syria.
* Regional powers took less militant positions while pushing forward the Geneva talks before its suspension. These powers trusted the promises of Secretary Kerry and left the leading roles in the crisis to bigger global powers, satisfying themselves with a secondary consultative role. However, there are no signs that the relations between the two main camps of those regional powers are improving in any bilateral sense.
The above described pictures enable us to see the Geneva talks differently. With the battlefields’ confirmation that Mr. Putin’s objectives have nothing to do with fighting ISIL, at least in any direct way, it is more evident now that Moscow’s insistence on drawing the lines splitting the opposition into unarmed and armed wings was not merely a tactical hardline. Rather, it was a calculated and intentional position shaped to fit the ultimate objectives of the Russian military operations in Syria.
The dual focus of Geneva could be understood better on light of the described dynamics on both screens. The US said it is hoping for a balanced transitional solution while the Russians opted to work hard to preserve Assad and their interests which are common in this case with Iran’s.
If the Russians had in mind, since the beginning, the objective of preserving the regime, imposing a military solution, and presenting the Syrian revolt in the form of an insurgency, it would be logical to insist on excluding the armed groups-all the armed groups and not only ISIL, and it would be also logical to bomb all the armed groups and not only ISIL. And this is precisely what they did.
The Russians did not, practically speaking, position their military intervention in Syria in any counterterrorism context from the very start as they falsely claimed publicly. They have, from day one, maintained a self-serving geostrategic context. The US was dragged to provide cover through promises, pressures and the Geneva talks to Mr. Putin’s position.
Moderate Syrian opposition and others looked at the fight in a mixed way. Their views were based on a different assessment and a more sophisticated nuance-that if a “solution” would aim at isolating the ideologically irreconcilable groups like Qaeda and ISIL, and save the lives of civilians, it should be tried. The objective was to win as much as possible of the non-terrorist opposition and build a common fight to stabilize Syria and defeat terrorism.
Yet, the killing intensified the moment those non-terrorist groups accepted to participate in the talks, more barrel bombs were thrown on civilians and more villages were cordoned off and faced famine. That reveals the profound differences between what was hoped for and what Mr. Putin had in mind all along. While the opposition and its backers showed their willingness to take the road of a diplomatic solution, Russia, Iran and Assad forces were showing their determination to impose a military solution under the cover of the so called transitional process. Geneva was broken mainly due to the dual objective it was built on: Either a cover to enable Assad and his Iranian allies to keep a tight grip on power, or a real transitional and balance process. Combining both is impossible, whatever magic methods used.
Normally, an agreement between two views of that kind is theoretically reachable if the differences are quantitative. The moment when the two negotiating sides in the process-Assad and the opposition in this case-are looking in opposite directions, the result is usually failure. And that is how the Geneva talks failed.
Is the US ready to accept at the end a replica of the Assad regime, either under this Assad personally or under another “Assad”, with some role to the opposition? From reading the practical positions taken by the administration, the answer would be a “yes”. Yet, even that is not acceptable to Moscow. Russia is not ready to accept giving political role to the opposition, any opposition, other than the groups that do not really count. It wants a military victory. And it is ready to show no limit to ruthless killing, even against civilians, to achieve. It is even ready to take the risk to expand the terrorism block on the ground to preserve its geostrategic interests in Syria. And as Russia is now in control of Damascus in a way or another, it will work upon its initial plan.
The most likely scenario is that what we see will go along the following lines:
* A continuation of the intensive military attacks by the regime-Russia forces and their allied militias while the Russians call for the resumption of the diplomatic effort in search for another political cover for their deception game. It is the post US surge Iraq, or something along those lines, again. Even an Iraqi situation in Syria would be an “accomplishment” in this case.
* Syria’s opposition will reject any resumption of any diplomatic efforts so long as Putin and Assad are using these efforts as a cover to their planned military solution. The US has lost almost all its credibility when it exerted all kinds of pressure to get the opposition to go to Geneva. US leverage is now reduced to near zero.
Secretary Kerry was taken for a ride by Putin and Lavrov. The real loss is not necessarily that Mr. Kerry will find no listeners now in anything related to Syria, but it is that a re-try of a diplomatic solution will become very difficult. For it requires two willing parties. One of the Syrian sides does not want such a solution, and Geneva tells us it is not the opposition.

Geneva: Kerry’s Worst Blunder
Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
http://mebriefing.com/?p=2150&utm_source=Issue+112_February_06_2015_&utm_campaign=Issue+112&utm_medium=email
We have seen in history many instances when leaders were trying to reach success in their foreign policy without really examining closely all the potential scenarios of what they hope for in any particular case they deal with.
And in the case of Syria, one may ask Secretary Kerry: What if Assad improved considerably his positions and kept his tight grip on power in the post-talks Damascus and as a result of the tilt in the balance of power caused by Russia’s military intervention? In other words, what if the “peace” effort that the Secretary launched might have ended in giving Assad’s military offensive a victory and “defeating” the Syrian revolution under the cover of the diplomatic talks? How could that have brought stability to Syria and how would it have changed the dynamics in the Middle East?
Answers to these questions show that the US may have been engaged in an effort that could ultimately complicate the situation of tomorrow, for itself and its allies. Its current quest to accomplish “something”, regardless of the detailed nature of whatever it is seeking to reach, was half backed.
We understand that the Europeans exerted great pressure on Washington to reach a diplomatic solution after the refugee crisis. We also understand that global powers are aware of the threat of the proliferation of terrorism. But what if short term achievements on those accounts lead to exactly the opposite of what is hoped for?
The question emerges when is the whole host of potential scenarios for the post-Geneva Syria, if the diplomatic show would have continued, is put under the magnifying lens. These scenarios could be summarized as follows:
* A sudden collapse of the talks as what already happened:
This will lead to a return to the status quo ante with some changes. Of these changes, the US loss of yet additional leverage and ability to influence the concerned parties. In other words, a sudden collapse of talks will not be free of charge, or that what should have been incorporated in the endeavor from its start. It will entail more American losses in the scarce credibility left for America in the region.
Furthermore, the relatively moderate opposition groups which accepted to participate in the talks would lose grounds to the radicals of Al Qaeda and ISIL.
This later development will not be due only to domestic Syrian dynamics, it would also be a result of the loss in regional powers’ leverage on opposition groups. Regional powers were placing themselves in a risky place by listening to Secretary Kerry and betting on his deal with Lavrov. If the deal collapses, as it seems to already have, those powers were risking to pay a price in terms of influence, albeit much less than the US.
The propaganda machines of Al Qaeda and ISIL would target both camps, the US and the Sunni Arab Gulf States as the ones who pushed the opposition to accept the risky enterprise of negotiating under Assad barrel bombs and Russia’s daily massacres of civilians.
More radicalization of the opposition, and a higher immunity to external pressures within its leadership, would not be the only consequences of a general failure of the Geneva process. Such a failure would mean a protracted conflict in which Syria’s civilians will suffer even more. Problems like the refugees and famine would continue pressing the political authorities in the EU and the conscious of the world public. All these consequences should have been thought of before launching the talks in Geneva. Some firm steps should have been demanded from the two sides before gathering around the negotiation table in order to correctly asses their willingness to reach a balanced deal. But trying to fool the opposition into a trap under pressure to surrender completely to Putin-Assad-Khamenei plans was doomed to failure.
Furthermore, Syrian neighbors, under threat of a crisis that has all potentials to spill over, would give more priority to their national interests. We have seen how the Turkish-Russian crisis threatened a general conflict last November. We have seen Iraq’s fight against ISIL being deeply impacted by the Syrian situation. And we have seen Arab-Iranian enmity growing very rapidly into a general sectarian conflict. Even now, as this is written, tension between Turkey and Russia is mounting steadily.
When success is sought, one should think of limiting the consequences of failure. Sometimes, half-packed attempts to reach peace leads to more wars.
In other words, a failure of the Geneva process will not exactly return the conflict one step backward to its status of the pre-talks configurations. It will, in fact, take the conflict one step forward to a worst configuration.
* The Geneva process takes the “eternal” course of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process:
Secretary Kerry must have looked at prospects of failure at one point or another. The only imaginable way out of such a corner would have naturally appeared in a plan to avoid an official statement of failure by the Obama administration if it realizes that success is impossible. A saving face prolongation of a dead process would be politically safer than participating in its official burial ceremony. To preserve the process and hand it to the next administration, the Secretary of State would able to avoid the embarrassment.
But why even this self-serving calculus would be harmful?
A planned, and empty, continuation of the process will not, by any stretch of imagination, match the feverish tempo of the military operations on the ground. What should have been examined is the chances of the opposition accepting a role as a fig leaf to liquidate itself. This assumption is impossible. Therefore expecting that the opposition will carry on the talks in Geneva while Putin and Assad are killing its members and thousands others of civilians on daily bases should have been dismissed outright.
It was right all along to work hard for a political solution. But Mr. Kerry should have paid attention to two things: That the Russian intervention tilted the situation in favor of Assad-Iran which are both close allies of Moscow. And that the heavy investment of US diplomacy, granted by Mr. Kerry to Mr. Putin as a free lunch to help him achieve his objectives in the East Mediterranean, did not fit in anyway in the general context. It reduces the US strategic capital in the region for no clear gains. No one buys that Mr. Putin interfered in Syria to defeat ISIL. In fact, the only real effort done to really defeat ISIL, however modest it is, is still America’s.
Keeping a clinically dead process alive on a machine implies exerting pressures on the relevant parties and using political capital the US does not even have.
In all cases, a symbolic continuation of the process, even in appearance only, would have meant that the crisis will continue and its damaging impact will get accumulatively deeper. The only difference is that the US would have lined with Putin, Assad and Khamenei in the most official and public of ways.
* A victory to the Assad-Putin-Khamenei camp:
This trilateral alliance, Putin, Assad and Iran, is not wasting a minute, even while it was engaged in the talks in Geneva, in trying to achieve a military victory. Let us suppose that the Alliance did achieve a considerable progress on the ground. This assumption will not mean at all that their forces would be able to clear most of Syria from rebels. The ceiling of a “victory” in this case is to control most of what is described as “the meaningful” Syria-that is the western coast and its densely populated periphery.
As any similar military “solution” to similar crisis, this “victory” will never be sustainable. At best, it will be a replay of the US surge in Iraq in 2007.The opposition will continue its attacks, will find its way to the Syrian population in the Assad controlled areas (both Sunnis and Alawis) and the fight will carry on.
This assumes that the trilateral alliance has the will and the resources to carry on this war. Such a fight will be the alliance’s to lose, not the opposition’s which will have nothing more to lose. So the agony will continue with no good perspectives to the trilateral alliance.
* Success:
It is not clear until today on what exactly Mr. Putin established his gamble. The whole world knows that he does not have the muscles to carry on for long time. He did not study well enough the lessons of the US experience in Iraq during the last decade, neither the similarities between Maliki and Assad. He may have expected that Secretary Kerry will throw him a life buoy. It is not even clear for how long he can carry on his gamble which is based on the shaky assumption that the peace process may succeed (at best) or that he can get Assad and Tehran a mini state in the West of Syria (at least). But Putin showed over and over again that he is a compulsive gambler. He loves to gamble. And it may only take a big loss to throw him out of the table. Maliki could not build a separate state in the South of Iraq. Assad will not be able to build an Alawi state in the West of Syria.
In both cases, Russia will have to continue its exhausting military effort in Syria. If the Russian President does not understand the magnitude of what he has done by getting militarily involved, the others will be left with the only choice of making him lose. But his loss, in this particular case, is not helpful to anyone other than the worst forces in Syria. What to do?
The sound answer is to find a balanced solution to the crisis in the talks-that is in face of a reckless gambler who recklessly doubles down as a way of life. Secretary Kerry chose to give this gambler a leading position. The Secretary of State even accepted to jump in the reckless gambler’s boat and to share his bet. Even in this case, the US administration will not be able to lead from behind. Behind Putin, the place is only for followers.
To reach a moment of serious possibility for peace in Syria, the situation on the ground should first reach a certain balance of power that is conductive to a balanced and sustainable political solution. Counting on the “good will” of the relevant parties or on the ability of allies to make the Syrian accept being killed silently is not only naive, it is also very risky in terms of global geostrategic calculations.
And this-the scope of Putin’s views, is why a success in Geneva was almost impossible.
Back to our first point, we should ask: what if Assad sits comfortably on a Russian tank guarded by a group of Iranian and Hezbollah armed men in the center of Damascus for another, say, decade? What if Secretary Kerry would have helped the Syrian President to reach an unbalanced “solution” that allows Assad, somehow, to remain in power? The Middle East will then turn into an open general battle field that will potentially bring many times as much destruction as what we have already seen in Syria.
In other words, Secretary Kerry, with all due respect to his relentless effort, made a terrible mistake. He trusted a ruthless dictator who cares only about appearing as a decisive global power and about his country’s self-serving geostrategic interests. Furthermore, he believed that whatever pressure by the US or others can make the opposition sign in a show that kills its own people.

The Pitfalls of Opening a Libyan Front against ISIL
Middle East Briefing/February 07/16
http://mebriefing.com/?p=2153&utm_source=Issue+112_February_06_2015_&utm_campaign=Issue+112&utm_medium=email
US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford have both been hinting for weeks that the US is contemplating a ground and air invasion of Libya to wipe out the Islamic State (ISIL) before they establish a further beachhead in Northern Africa. As many as 3,000 ISIL fighters have taken over the former Qadaffi stronghold of Sirte along the Libyan coast, and both US and Russian officials have asserted—without any actual evidence—that Islamic State Sheikh Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is now ensconced in Libya. Both Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Congresswoman and Iraq war veteran Tulsi Gabbard, a Hawaii Democrat, have made public statements in recent weeks, claiming that al-Baghdadi is now running his terror empire out of the Libyan city.
Whether or not the self-proclaimed Caliph of the Islamic State is now residing in Libya, there is solid on-the-ground intelligence that two other top ISIL commanders, Abu Ali al-Anbari and Abu Omar, have arrived by boat. Al-Anbari is a former military officer from the Saddam Hussein era. Another top ISIL commander, Wissam Najm Abd Zayd al Zubaydi, known as Abu Nabil, was killed in a US airstrike on Derna in eastern Libya late in 2015.
Gen. Dunford admitted on Jan. 22 that the US is “weeks” away from launching air strikes and commando raids against ISIL strongholds in Libya. “It’s fair to say that we’re looking to take decisive military action against ISIL, in conjunction with the political process,” Gen. Dunford told the New York Times. “The president has made it clear that we have the authority to use military force.”
When Defense Secretary Carter met with allies in Paris last month, the topic of a joint expeditionary force into Libya was a hot topic of discussion. Plans on the table at that meeting with British, French, Italian, German, Dutch and Australian defense ministers involved as many as 8,000 troops going in to Libya to root out ISIL, with Italy taking formal charge of the mission, and with Italian air bases being used for the bombing runs. US and British commando teams have been on the ground in Libya for months, gathering targeting intelligence and assessing the prospects of tribal militias and other militias providing tactical support.
They have already concluded that, with the Turkish border controls beefed up against Islamic State infiltration of Syria, ISIL is encouraging “volunteer” fighters to come instead to the Northern Africa country, where no such border restrictions are yet in place. Following the Nov. 13, 2015 Islamic State-directed terrorist attacks in Paris, France, European governments are increasingly concerned about the “soft underbelly of Europe” in North Africa.
The Libya option has gone all the way up to the Obama White House, with a series of recent meetings of both the Principals Committee and the Deputies Committee reviewing the military options.
There are pitfalls to both an opening of a Libyan front against the Islamic State and a decision to delay. Efforts by Secretary of State John Kerry and European counterparts, as well as UN Special Envoy for Libya Martin Kobler, to form a national unity government between the internationally-recognized Tobruk parliament and the Libyan Dawn forces holding the capitol city of Tripoli, broke down on Jan. 25, when the Tobruk parliament voted, by an overwhelming majority, to reject the NUG. The issue that led to the rejection was the insistence by the Libyan Dawn faction that Gen. Khalifa Haftar be dumped as head of the Libyan armed forces. Gen. Haftar enjoys the strong backing of Egypt, and has been widely viewed as a US asset, who lived for more than a decade in exile in the United States and had documented close ties to the CIA.
UN Envoy Kobler was in Algeria this week, attempting to revive the unity government talks by getting direct Algerian backing, on the grounds that the ISIL base of operations in Sirte covers all of North Africa and poses a direct threat to Algerian stability. The two countries have a common border that runs more than 1,000 kilometers.
One clear sign that the US is going to find some venue for moving back into Libya is the reports that surfaced in the Libyan media this week that a number of top ISIL commanders have been assassinated by long-range snipers as they have moved around Sirte. Both US Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) hunter-killer squads and British Special Air Services (SAS) commandos have been on the ground in Libya for months, and are now apparently going into active “decapitation” operations.

Druze and Jews forge special bond in memory of brave policeman
Yifat Erlich/Ynetnews/Published: 02.06.16
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4762603,00.html
After visiting the family of Zidan Seif, the brave Druze policeman who stopped the massacre at the Har Nof synagogue, giving his life for Jewish worshipers, Rabbi Yaakov Kermaier saw an opportunity to bring Jews and Druze together for Jethro’s Shabbat, when the story of Moses’ father-in-law, and the founder of the Druze religion, is told.
Rinal Seif has worn only black for 13 months, during which she mourned the death of her husband the police officer, Master Sergeant Zidan Nahad Seif, who was killed while attempting to stop the terrorist attack at the synagogue in Jerusalem's Har Nof neighborhood.
"I didn't go to parties, I didn't wear makeup. I mourned. I went back to live with my parents and they're helping me raise our baby daughter," Rinal says, sitting at the Shabbat table at the Nissim family home, in Jerusalem's Arnona neighborhood.
Both pain and light radiate from Rinal's face, an impossible contradiction - as impossible as calling a young, beautiful 23-year-old woman, whose deep blue eyes burn with noble determination, a "widow."
"The Druze customs allow each person to determine how long they want to mourn. There are those that after 40 days end the mourning period. It took me a long time, but after a year and one month, I realized I wanted to get back to living life, for him, for Zidan, and for our daughter. Zidan gave his life for other people's lives, and I want to continue this life. I do everything in honor of Zidan."
"At our Shabbat table, it is custom to read from the Torah," says Yonatan Nissim, who is hosting Rinal, her brother and her daughter in his home. "Today we don't need to say anything. The things you're saying, Rinal, are stronger than any quote from the Torah. There's no need for words."
But the Nissim family is not the only one hosting this Shabbat, in dozens of other Jerusalemite homes, Druze and Jews are sitting side by side at the Shabbat table. Three buses brought some 160 people from four Druze villages in the Galilee to the Shai Agnon synagogue in Arnona on Saturday afternoon. Sheikhs with elegant mustaches and tarbooshes, elderly women whose heads are covered by thin white shawls, young people, teenage girls, and children, all get off the bus one after the other, shaking the hands of their hosts with embarrassed hesitation. Their hosts were waiting for them outside the synagogue with flags combining the Israeli and Druze flags, made by the meeting's organizer, Rabbi Yaakov Kermaier.
"When the terror attack at the Har Nof synagogue happened, I was in Israel. It wasn't a regular visit to Israel, it was a visit to prepare for our aliyah," says Kermaier, 46, who at the time served as the rabbi of the Ateret Tzvi community at the Fifth Avenue Synagogue in Manhattan. "Since I knew the family of one of those murdered in the attack, I went to offer my condolences at the shiva in Har Nof. It was there, of all places, that I suddenly asked myself why I wasn’t going to offer my condolences to the Seif family as well. I made inquiries on whether the family was okay with that and whether it was receiving Jewish visitors, and when I was told it was appropriate, I went. I got there, to Yanuh-Jat, at a particularly stormy day. One person was passing by on the street and when I asked him for directions, he accompanied me all the way to the house. As soon as I walked in, everyone got up as a sign of respect. That's how the Druze welcome guests. When I was there, there were no other Jewish visitors. I stayed there for over two hours. It's interesting that both there and in Har Nof, the men and women sat separately. At a certain point I was allowed into the women's room to offer my condolences to Rinal as well. I blessed the cute baby with a blessing I give my own children on Shabbat, that the Lord blesses her and keeps her. I promised them I would keep in touch."
L'chaim with a glass of Cola
Kermaier did keep in touch. Last winter, Rinal and her family went to New York. Kermaier invited her to speak in front of his community. Rinal accepted the inivation and made everyone at the synagogue emotional when she told of the heroism of her husband Zidan, a traffic policeman who rushed to the scene of the attack and managed to stop the massacre of the worshipers at the Kehilat Bnei Torah synagogue, located at the heart of the ultra-Orthodox neighborhood of Har Nof.
At an early morning hour in November 2014, two terrorists from Jabel Mukaber in East Jerusalem infiltrated the synagogue, armed with a gun and a butcher knife. The sounds of gunfire and the screams of the worshipers horrified the neighbors, who quickly called the police. Zidan, who was nearby, driving a traffic police car, heard about the attack on the police scanner and rushed to the scene. He didn't wait for Special Forces, instead he started exchanging fire with the terrorists, without any protective gear, and wounded one of them. By this point, the terrorists have already managed to murder five worshipers, but thanks to Zidan's actions, the life of the other worshipers, and all who live in the area, was saved. The wounded terrorist left the synagogue and advanced on Zidan, firing a bullet that hit the policeman in his forehead. Seif was rushed to the Hadassah Medical Center in Jerusalem's Ein Karem, where doctors fought for his life, but by evening time they had to declare him dead.
Following a police investigation of the incident, which determined it was Seif's determination and bravery that helped save lives, Zidan's family received a Medal of Distinguished Service.
Rinal's talk in front of Rabbi Kermaier's community made the rabbi realize that Zidan's self-sacrifice to save the lives of Jewish worshipers was an opportunity to forge deeper ties between Jews and Druze.
Last summer, Yaakov, Ilana and their four children said goodbye to the skyscrapers of Manhattan and moved to a home on the outskirts of the Arnona neighborhood, where the view from their window is of the soft slopes of the Judean desert and the Dead Sea, gleaming in the distance.
It was during that summer that Kermaier thought of organizing an inter-faith meeting in Israel between Jews and Druze. His neighbors may have raised an eyebrow at the American rabbi, who just arrived and is already seeking to lead a revolution, but Kermaier bounded over the Israeli cynicism with ease.
The meeting was scheduled for Saturday, January 30, when Parashat Yitro (Jethro) was being read at the synagogue. Jethro, a priest of Midian, Moses' father-in-law, helped Moses and advised him on how to lead the Hebrews in the desert, and even joined the Hebrews' journey to Canaan. According to Druze tradition, the Druze are Jethro's descendants and his successors and Jethro, who the Druze call Nabi Shu'ayb, is considered the spiritual founder and chief prophet in the Druze religion.
"When Yaakov suggested the idea of hosting the Druze on Jethro's Shabbat, I told him it was a nice idea, but that I think it'll be hard to convince families with children to come for Shabbat like that," Rinal says.
"Rinal told me about the idea," says her brother, Kinan, 24, who served in IDF Intelligence. "I suggested we tell our parents and hear what they thought. The parents were enthusiastic about it. From there, we started rolling with it, and the one who really took to the idea and drew everyone in was Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif. So we put him in touch with Rabbi Yaakov."
Kermaier and his family went to Julis to visit Sheikh Tarif, the spiritual leader of the Druze in Israel. "The sheikh hosted us in a very moving and dignified way, as the Druze tradition dictates, just like Jethro hosted Moses," Kermaier says. "He was very enthusiastic with the idea of Jews hosting Druze on Jethro's Shabbat. I feel that there are so many common values between us and the Druze. They are our partners in founding and protecting the State of Israel, and it's important that the relationship between us is one of life, and of a true connection."
"I don't think it's right that between the State of Israel and the Druze community there will only be a 'blood covenant.' We need to make a covenant of life," Rinal says. Her hosts agree and raise their glasses in a toast l'chaim. The glasses coming together in friendship are not filled with wine, God forbid, but Cola.
Kermaier made sure all hosts knew that the Druze religion forbids the drinking of alcohol. "It's better that there's no wine on the table at all. For religious Druze, wine on the table is like a religious Jew sitting down to eat and there's pork and lobster on the table."
'I felt like something happened'
After the "l'chaim," everyone feels closer, and Rinal opens up, telling her hosts how she met her sweetheart Zidan, and how her life changed completely one horrible morning a year and a half ago.
"We were introduced by my high school teacher, who is Zidan's uncle. He drove me mad for a few months, telling me I had to meet Zidan, because he's just the one for me. I didn't think so. I was still a student at the time, I wanted to graduate from high school and move on to academic studies. And I didn't like Zidan's age either. He was 26 at the time, it seemed way too old for me. But the teacher wouldn't give up. In the end, I agreed to meet with Zidan, just so my teacher stops bugging me."
The two met at school, with the teacher and another friend supervising, but despite the fact both of them agreed they weren't right for each other, the two started talking on the phone a lot after the meeting. For a year they spoke on the phone, as Zidan was trying to convince Rinal's parents to meet with him. Because of the Druze custom to only marry within the village, Rinal's parents preferred finding her a husband from their village, Kisra-Sumei, which is why they unequivocally refused to meet with Zidan, who lived in the village of Yanuh-Jat. It was only after the school headmaster intervened, and Rinal refused to meet with other guys, that her father agreed, and Zidan was invited to visit the family for Eid al-Adha.
"My father said it was just one visit and that's it, and that I shouldn't live under the illusions of marriage. But when he saw Zidan, and heard how he was talking with such intelligence, he was very impressed with him and immediately agreed for us to marry. Zidan had a very significant presence about him. He was a real manly man, but very gentle and considerate. Anyone who met him was instantly impressed."
The two were married in 2013, before Rinal even turned 20. Zidan, who signed a contract with the Israel Police, kept working in Jerusalem. Because of the long distance, he stayed in Jerusalem for most of the week and returned to their home in Yanuh-Jat on Wednesday or Thursday for a long weekend.
"We took advantage of every minute to be together. Within a year we managed to go abroad twice and twice to Eilat. I told Zidan we still had our whole life ahead of us, but he insisted we went on vacation and spent time together."
That morning, Rinal was on the bus on her way to college in Haifa, where she's studying to become a teacher for preschoolers. At six in the morning, just like every morning, Zidan sent her a text message. At 6:30 she called him and they spoke on the phone. As he always did, Zidan showered her with loving words. "My dear, Rinal, I love you," he told her.
"At 7:02 I felt like something bad was happening to Zidan," Rinal says, as she holds her baby daughter in her arms. "I called him and he didn't answer. I called again and again. Meanwhile, I heard there was a terror attack in Jerusalem. I intentionally didn't go online. I called again and again. I even sent him a message, saying there was a terror attack, so I was asking him to call and tell me he was okay. Usually, Zidan would always answer immediately. But he didn’t this time. I called to remind him that he has a family, that he has a baby he was longing to hear call him 'dad,' but he wasn't thinking about himself or his family, and fought like a lion to save other people's lives."
At that moment, the strong woman breaks, and is no longer giving those around her strong and confident looks. She chokes on her tears as they fall, and the pain bruises.
"After Zidan was killed, we were surrounded with a lot of support - all of our community, and also Jews from Israel and all over the world. My daughter and I were showered with love. Sometimes I felt like it was too much, that I was uncomfortable with receiving so much. I really appreciate you having us here, and this Shabbat. I think it's very nice that the connection was made particularly with religious Jews."
'Feeling at home'
After the personal meetings by the Shabbat table, the hosts and the guests head out for guided tours of the neighborhood, and listen to a lecture from Riad Hamza, one of the senior sheikhs, about Jethro and the customs of the Druze religion.
On Saturday night, after a festive Havdalah ceremony over alcohol-free grape juice, a ceremony is held in honor of Zidan at the girls' Beit Midrash (Jewish study hall) at the Lindenbaum Midrasha. A silver Torah is brought in to the Beit Midrash, and a young boy reads out the relevant quotes from Parashat Yitro.
"Between the Druze and the Jewish people there have been partnership and brotherhood for thousands of years, from the days of Nabi Shu'ayb, the priest of Midian, Moses' father-in-law, as the quotes we just read show," Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif tells the audience. "I am praying that all of the nations in the world can learn from this brave and loving partnership. We were very moved by this Shabbat event and the bond created here. We're already beginning to organize an event to host you. Everything will be kosher, we know how to do that."
At the conclusion of his speech, the sheikh gives Rabbi Kermaier a gift - a beautiful handmade Menorah, carefully crafted from heavy wood.
"There are those in the world pushing towards religious extremism," says Deputy Minister Ayoob Kara, himself a member of the Druze community. "And it is precisely at this time that the moderate religious people should come together and fight together against the haters of peace. The Druze and the Jewish people have special cooperation, which I cannot talk about here, even outside the borders of Israel. This week, the prime minister called me to his office for an urgent consultation about these very issues. Early in the conversation I asked him whether he intentionally called me over for consultation so close to Parashat Yitro, and we both laughed."
"We felt at home in your homes. Thank you for hosting us. You owe us to this very day for the advice Jethro gave Moses on how to lead the people of Israel. After 3,000 years, the interest has grown a lot," joked Sheikh Hassan Gharbawi.
After that, the mood once again becomes serious, as the audience, in tears, watches a video about Zidan Seif. The room falls completely quiet as Rinal makes her way between shawls and tarbooshes, between kippahs and head covers. She speaks in memory of her husband, showing a lot of strength. It's not easy for Rinal, but despite the difficulties, she makes sure to attend every event in honor of her husband.
"Zidan is the first Druze to have a Torah book written in his memory. I attended the unveiling ceremony in Haifa and they even let me write a letter in the book," she whispers to me with pride. "This Shabbat was a special event, and so befitting of Zidan, who brought people together, and gave his life to save others." y moved by this Shabbat event and the bond created here. We're already beginning to organize an event to host you. Everything will be kosher, we know how to do that."
At the conclusion of his speech, the sheikh gives Rabbi Kermaier a gift - a beautiful handmade Menorah, carefully crafted from heavy wood.
"There are those in the world pushing towards religious extremism," says Deputy Minister Ayoob Kara, himself a member of the Druze community. "And it is precisely at this time that the moderate religious people should come together and fight together against the haters of peace. The Druze and the Jewish people have special cooperation, which I cannot talk about here, even outside the borders of Israel. This week, the prime minister called me to his office for an urgent consultation about these very issues. Early in the conversation I asked him whether he intentionally called me over for consultation so close to Parashat Yitro, and we both laughed."
"We felt at home in your homes. Thank you for hosting us. You owe us to this very day for the advice Jethro gave Moses on how to lead the people of Israel. After 3,000 years, the interest has grown a lot," joked Sheikh Hassan Gharbawi.
After that, the mood once again becomes serious, as the audience, in tears, watches a video about Zidan Seif. The room falls completely quiet as Rinal makes her way between shawls and tarbooshes, between kippahs and head covers. She speaks in memory of her husband, showing a lot of strength. It's not easy for Rinal, but despite the difficulties, she makes sure to attend every event in honor of her husband. "Zidan is the first Druze to have a Torah book written in his memory. I attended the unveiling ceremony in Haifa and they even let me write a letter in the book," she whispers to me with pride. "This Shabbat was a special event, and so befitting of Zidan, who brought people together, and gave his life to save others."

Give us our money back!
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 07/16
The value of remittances that foreigners annually make in Saudi Arabia is about to reach 160 billion riyals and it is increasing every year.  It’s normal for foreign workers in the country to regularly transfer money to their families back home. This is one of their most basic human rights, especially in a country which has an open economy. However, it’s unreasonable for the country not to have recreational facilities where this money could be spent. We have no right to blame people for transferring their money when we don’t have facilities where they can spend. What makes brotherly countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman capable of having such facilities? Expatriates in these countries can spend the money they earn there instead of transferring all of it back home. This is significant considering its value is almost equal to state budgets.
Blame game
We have no right to blame people for transferring their money when we don’t have facilities where they can spend. I have met dozens of taxi drivers and employees who had worked in Saudi Arabia and have now moved to work in other Gulf countries. When I ask some of them what they thought of Saudi Arabia, they express a sigh over the time spent while working there and remember the money saved during their stay. I wish Saudi Arabia builds facilities that make them spend money like they do in other Gulf countries. These are innocent questions, but if we don’t answer them, we have no right to condemn foreigners for annually transferring 160 billion riyals or even 610 billion riyals!

As Syria talks fail, should we prepare for the worst?
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/February 07/16
The latest round of peace talks on Syria fell apart after only two days with the opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) rightly refusing to meet with representatives of Bashar al-Assad’s disgraced regime without any prior guarantee of basic humanitarian relief on the ground. Meanwhile, Assad regime forces – backed by Russian airstrikes – staged a major offensive to retake Aleppo, forcing tens of thousands to flee to Turkey’s border. Any hope that the most recent opportunity for progress would be made in Geneva – if only just on the humanitarian front – has been shattered. In the immediate term, the international community needs to recommit to financially supporting U.N. efforts, as they continue to deal with influx of fleeing Syrians. In the longer term, the reality that the war cannot end without confronting Assad’s crimes must be accepted. Assad regime’s failure to respond to a single one of these demands underscores its total lack of interest in alleviating the suffering.
In the lead up to talks in Geneva, the HNC had made several basic demands, with humanitarian needs being prioritized over all other issues. Yet, talks remained on the brink of failure even before they began, with Russia attempting to dictate which parties were even allowed to be present. Meanwhile, brutal attacks targeting civilians continued unabated on the ground. The Assad regime’s failure to respond to a single one of these demands underscores its total lack of interest in alleviating the suffering in any serious manner. In an interview with Reuters, HNC chief coordinator Riad Hijab said that the whole world sees who is responsible for the failure of negotiations. “Who is bombing civilians and starving people to death.” The world does see this, yet, Assad’s killing of civilians with impunity for years has only emboldened his regime. With Russia’s full backing allowing for gains on the ground, Assad may now be less inclined than ever before to make even the most modest of concessions.
Biggest threat
That said, with as many as 70,000 Syrians fleeing an imminent siege of opposition-held areas in Aleppo, the inconvenient truth that the Assad regime and its backers remain the number one threat to the majority of Syrians has once again been made evident. Continually failing to address this fact will ensure indefinite bloodshed. In a potentially significant development, Saudi Arabia reportedly vowed it would deploy ground troops to Syria if requested to do so by the U.S.-led coalition. While ground troops may ultimately be needed to deal a definitive blow to ISIS, without comprehensive plans in place for urgent medical evacuations and safe zones, Riyadh’s involvement will also not alleviate Syria’s suffering. The HNC’s approach to talks with the regime – with immediate focus on dire humanitarian concerns – should be emulated by all parties concerned. While Aleppo braces for what will be yet another brutal chapter in Syria’s all too long war, the international community must escalate efforts to financially support the U.N.’s operations in Syria and neighboring countries. The BBC reported that only 43 percent of the $2.9 billion pledged to the U.N. for Syria was actually funded. The report also indicated that the U.S. was the number one donor while one of the eight largest contributors was Kuwait. In the most recent donor meeting, parties have vowed to contribute $10 billion in aid. They must deliver and states that have thus far failed to directly fund U.N. efforts must finally contribute. The bloodshed in Syria is likely to significantly worsen in the coming weeks and the international community must prepare for this eventuality.

Peace only on Assad’s terms
Andrew Bowen/Al Arabiya/February 07/16
With the suspension of the Geneva talks, the Vienna roadmap forward looks both uncertain and unrealistic. U.N. special envoy Stefan de Mistura’s job has never been enviable or easy with the number of competing internal and external actors at play. However, the suspension of talks in Geneva underscores that no one came to these talks ready to engage in a substantive dialog, in particular, President Assad and his allies, Russia and Iran. As the parties settled into Geneva without yet starting the formal indirect U.N.-mediated talks, Moscow and Tehran-backed ground and air campaign surged onwards. In a sign of bad faith, the Syrian military, with Russian and Iranian assistance, escalated their efforts to advance on Aleppo and cut off the opposition’s main supply line from Turkey. They have rejected the High Negotiating Committee (HNC)’s conditions for the talks, which is implementation of two articles in December’s U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254. These two articles call on all parties to stop bombarding civilians and medical facilities, to release detainees, and to allow humanitarian access to besieged areas. It’s not surprising then that Russia and Iran have shown no deep interest in sticking to the Vienna road map
Assad has only paid lip service to this demand so far, allowing the Red Crescent to provide aid to the city of Al-Tal, north of Damascus. Under the watchful gaze of its international backers, Damascus has consciously pursued medieval-era tactics to go so far as to literally try to starve his opponents to surrender.
Equally, Russia, Iran, and Damascus are continuing to contest the composition of the Syrian opposition negotiating teams and the Syrian government team has rejected beginning talks until the list of opposition participants is provided to them. For example, Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham, two designated terrorist groups by Russia, arrived Monday to participate in the peace talks. Moscow noted they can participate in the talks but this does not legitimize them.
Chaos at Geneva
The time now for a settlement on any terms other than President Assad and his patrons isn’t right. Assad, with clear backing from President Putin and Ayatollah Khomeini, is doggedly drawing out these negotiations as long as possible to ensure that his and his allies forces can consolidate control over the critical regime-held areas of the state and suitably create a sizeable buffer between regime areas and opposition-held areas. It’s not surprising then that Russia and Iran have shown no deep interest in sticking to the Vienna road map. For Moscow, it buys more time for President Putin to both advance his regional and global interests and at the same time, give the appearance that Moscow is actually interested in playing a constructive role. For Tehran, with the advances in Syria, the only concessions to be made in these talks are the ones that advance their interests not limit them. While President Rowhani wants a settlement, peace in Syria will not be at the expense of Tehran’s strategic interests. As the regime further gains on the battlefield, the HNC and the broader opposition arrived in Geneva in a disadvantaged position. Deeply fractured by differences, these groups have never effectively coalesced around a common negotiating position, beyond Assad must leave office. Equally, concerning, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) has indicated no deep commitment to a territorially integrated Syrian state. Beyond these groups, ISIS continues to seek to carve out a hold over Syrian and Iraqi territory, despite recent setbacks.
The HNC’s refusal to begin talks until the regime makes the humanitarian concessions is a substantial roadblock to overcome. Understandably, as the opposition loses further ground, the HNC has very little to show to its constituents on the ground that such negotiations are credible.
It was irresponsible for De Mistura to try to hold these talks with those conditions not credibly met. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, in an effort to push forward on these talks, misjudged that the opposition could be pushed to the table to talk with no conditions. Moscow and Tehran’s latest offensive on Aleppo underscores that despite Kerry’s close rapport with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif, they don’t negotiate with him in good faith.
Fractured Syria
The road to peace through Vienna and Geneva looks long and dim. A national ceasefire, which was supposed to occur as these talks began, is a fantasy. With the opposition reasonably never likely to agree on the terms that Iran, Russia, and President Assad would like, these talks, if they don’t collapse, will outlast President Obama. They also will likely outlast the viability of a territorially and politically integrated Syrian state. Moscow and Tehran’s ultimate prize is Assad remaining President of Syria. Their consolation and guarantee is political influence and control for the foreseeable future in regime held areas with or without Assad. For the Syrian opposition, a united Syrian polity is gone. The PYD will unlikely ever cede any of their political gains. More broadly, for the U.S. and its allies, the fracturing of Syria will be a long-term challenge well past a political settlement.