Three English articles addressing the Lebanese crisis/Lebanon must be empowered to sail toward success, By: Khaled Abou Zahr/ Prolonged crisis of governance leaves Lebanon adrift and isolated, By: Rebeccaanne Proctor/The Power of Not Now, By: Mohanad Hage Ali/
Three English articles addressing the Lebanese crisis:
Lebanon must be empowered to sail toward success Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/March 11/2021
Prolonged crisis of governance leaves Lebanon adrift and isolated Rebeccaanne Proctor/Arab News/March 11/2021
The Power of Not Now Mohanad Hage Ali/Carnegie MEC/March 11/2021
Lebanon must be empowered to sail toward success Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/March 11/2021
What does it mean to be Lebanese today? If you ask any Lebanese this question, they will most probably give you an answer about the country’s beautiful landscape, geography and cuisine. I remember a conversation I had a few years back with some Lebanese and other nationals who knew the country well. They all described the country with the famous: “Lebanon is a beautiful country, where you can ski in the mountains in the morning and enjoy the beach in the afternoon.” This always precedes a long discussion about the Lebanese way of life of enjoying good food, entertainment and all the pleasures life can offer.
I admit to ruining the general positive mood by cutting it short and saying: “Lebanon is none of that; it is a country where you can spend a day enjoying life but then get threatened and scolded at night by Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah pointing fingers on television. It is a country living under the illusion of freedom when it is a ruthless dictatorship.”
But the question remains, what does it mean to be Lebanese? Are Lebanese Arabs? Are Lebanese Mediterranean? Today one might even ask if Lebanese are Persians. What is Lebanon? What does it represent as a country? It seems that, since its creation, Lebanon has been stuck fighting the causes of others (and being paid for it), whether that is a colonial power’s interests, an Arab cause or today’s Iranian plan for expansion. The country has never stood for itself, its own sovereignty and the good of its entire population. In a region of conflicts and larger stakeholders, we have always been a small boat adjusting its sails to move with the flow, which is smart. Unfortunately, the boat has had more captains than sailors, leading to more infighting.
Lebanon’s recent history has left it without a single day of rest or stability. The civil war, bombardments, military confrontations, assassinations and large explosions have followed financial crises and social explosions. All these events seem to have introduced to the Lebanese DNA the capacity to rebuild without questions; this might even date from our ancestors. We seem to have the will to go on living and enjoying the small pleasures in life, even though the country seems to be on the verge of collapse, as well as the capacity to accept or ignore the contradictions and be able to live another day. To be Lebanese, you need more than a will of steel; you need to have a split personality.
This question might seem futile as the country is once again collapsing on all levels and — for the first time and despite the voices calling for change — the will seems to be dying. But I ask the question because we cannot move on and build unless we know who we are and accept that the country is in crisis. We cannot build a country if we do not decide on a master plan. To this day, the Lebanese have always rebuilt the broken pieces of their buildings, but never their country.
I do not have a straight answer to this question. As a Lebanese emigrant who never set foot in the country after leaving it as a newborn, my view of Lebanon is biased and too idealistic. It is a collection of bits and pieces of stories from all sides. However, I would say it is a country of travelers, discoverers, creators and savvy traders. In fact, to this day we are no different than the Phoenicians. Regardless of our religion or ethnicity, we are the same. Just point a finger anywhere on a world map and you will find a successfully integrated and loyal Lebanese community. The Americas, Europe, Africa, the Gulf and even Asia, Lebanese are everywhere and, more often than not, are well established and net positive contributors to their adopted communities. But, when we go back to Lebanon, we become cannibals. The ruthlessness of the country’s leaders and the interests of an invading power force this dishonest behavior to survive. The many captains in our sailboat are in fact all usurpers that leave their crew starving.
In fact, a country of creators and travelers can only be a free and independent country. The freedoms of speech and belief need to be at the core of its principles, along with the rule of law, free enterprise, inclusivity, and innovation. This means that, to build a prosperous Lebanon that can reach its full potential and empower its citizens, it needs to be rebuilt: Not its buildings, but its institutions.
Lebanon also needs to stay aware of its environment and to navigate properly; it needs to understand how the region’s winds and waves move. It needs to respect all its neighbors and understand that freedom of speech will have limits when it comes to regional affairs. The country cannot be a platform to attack any of its bigger neighbors, Iran and Syria included. Lebanese are good fighters in the most literal sense of the term, but it is high time we only fought for Lebanon. This means that neutrality also needs to be at the core of the country’s principles.
To this day, the Lebanese have always rebuilt the broken pieces of their buildings, but never their country.
It is, therefore, urgent that the opposition and protesters morph into a unified political movement that protects these principles and fights for these virtues. All minorities need to be included in this process. Lebanon needs a movement that promotes free will and justice and fights against the demagoguery and intolerance of the current political leaders. As difficult as this task seems, resilience, consistency and focus will prevail over any proxy and its associates.
The enemies of a free Lebanon are well known: Extremist religious and leftist movements that use the fight for equality and inclusion as a tool for ruling and imposing their own private interests. They all go against the nature of what it is to be Lebanese and free. It is time to empower the country to sail toward prosperity and success. For lack of sailing advice, I would conclude by saying beware of the equivalent of the line in George Orwell’s book “Animal Farm” that states: “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”
*Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
Prolonged crisis of governance leaves Lebanon adrift and isolated Rebeccaanne Proctor/Arab News/March 11/2021
DUBAI: Since early March, Lebanese have taken to the streets in a renewed round of protests as the pound plunged to a record low on the black market. Over the past week masses of protesters have closed the main Martyr’s Square in central Beirut while others have blocked the highway linking the capital with the north and south.
A new level of violence and distress has gripped the country. Fights over basic necessities have broken out in supermarkets as families struggle to survive. More than half of the population is now living below the poverty line.
On Thursday, the French foreign minister added his voice to the chorus of criticism of Lebanon’s politicians for failing to get their act together.
“They all committed to act to create an inclusive government and committed to implementing indispensable reforms,” Jean-Yves le Drian said in Paris. “That was seven months ago and nothing is moving.”
Lebanon has spent nearly two months under one of the world’s strictest COVID-19 lockdowns, pushing its sickly economy and restive population to the very brink. The period has coincided with mounting civil unrest and a brutal political assassination, prompting fears of further instability.
A boy gestures as Lebanese anti-government protesters confront security forces while going around the homes of deputies and government officials in the northern port city of Tripoli in January 2021. (AFP/File Photo)
Since Jan. 14, citizens not deemed “essential workers” have been prevented from leaving their homes by a strict round-the-clock curfew that was imposed after a surge in coronavirus cases overwhelmed the nation’s health system.
The coronavirus measures have piled further misery on a public already reeling from the currency collapse, with many households left hungry and forced to rely on charity or the burgeoning black market.
The combined impact of the renewed protests, political violence and economic pain is understandably jangling Lebanese nerves, still raw from the trauma of last August’s Beirut port blast.
For families facing destitution, with little chance of help from a barely functioning government, the latest lockdown has all the trappings of the final straw. “None of this is surprising,” Nasser Saidi, Lebanon’s former economy and trade minister, told Arab News.
“Income is down. GDP is down by at least 25 percent. We’re having inflation in excess of 130 percent; general poverty is over 50 percent of the population; food poverty is over 25 percent of the population; unemployment is rapidly increasing; and thousands of businesses are being shut down.
“All of this is coming to the fore and at the same time we have a lockdown. It was a very stupid decision the way it was done, to lock Lebanon down, because it prohibits people from even being able to go and get their groceries, their food and necessities. And then it meant also shutting down factories and manufacturing.
“If you get sick, you can’t even get to a hospital or afford a hospital. Hospitals are full now due to COVID-19. You have had a series of very bad decision-making and policies, and Lebanon is paying the price for it. This is going to continue. It is not going to go away. In my opinion, we are seeing just the tip of the iceberg.”
The deteriorating economic and financial situation has pushed tens of thousands of Lebanese into poverty, yet more pain probably lies in store. While the official rate for the US dollar in Lebanon is 1,520 Lebanese pounds, the black-market price has now hit a record high of 10,000 — up from 7,000 just a few months ago.
On March 8, President Michel Aoun told security forces to prevent roads being blocked by protesters after demonstrators declared a “day of rage.” Troops were brought in to briefly open main roads the protesters blocked who then closed them off again in a standoff with government forces that seems to see no end in sight. However, with little progress made on the formation of a new cabinet or implementation of reforms, some protesters have called for a revival of the nationwide street movement of late 2019 that demanded the removal of the entire political class.
Critics of the government and the various armed factions that control political life in Lebanon are vulnerable to reprisals for speaking out. On Feb. 5, the intellectual and Hezbollah critic Luqman Slim was found dead in a car in the southern region of Zahrani with multiple gunshot wounds.
INNUMBERS
Lebanon crisis
*405,000 – Recorded COVID-19 infections.
*19.2% – Fall in GDP in 2020.
*1/5 – Population in extreme poverty.
Although investigations are still underway, the Iran-backed Shiite militia is considered the prime suspect. Many observers believe the killing marks a dark turning point for a country whose fate already hangs by a thread.
“Throughout all the assassinations we had in Lebanon during the early 2000s and even the 2006 invasion by Israel, we never felt danger like we do now,” Mariana Wehbe, who runs a PR firm in Beirut, told Arab News. “When before did we have to hide our jewelry and our valuables? Everyone is afraid about what will happen next.”
Some observers fear Lebanon’s economic trainwreck could leave the public even more dependent upon political factions to provide them with aid and security — a throwback to the 1975-90 civil war period when the militias ruled supreme.
Although pessimistic about the situation, Ramzy El-Hafez, a political analyst who lives in Beirut, believes Lebanon is still a long way from a repeat of the darkness that engulfed the country in 1975.
“We had two armed groups fighting each other. Now we just have Hezbollah and there is no armed group trying to fight it,” El-Hafez told Arab News.
“There are no signals that we are going to have a civil war. The new phase is the one we are already in: Hezbollah controls the country with impunity, and no one is opposing it. Additionally, the new phase is that Lebanon in the past was able to benefit from help from friends in the Gulf and in the West. Now no one is helping Lebanon.
“We are trying to fix our own problems, but we are not able to do so and our friends are telling us to get rid of Hezbollah before they can help us. In Lebanon, we are living in a trap. That is the new phase.”
Slim’s murder does not mark a significant turning point, El-Hafez says, because killings of this sort have not stopped since the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, in 2005.
“Sometimes they are spaced out, but they continue and every time one takes place people think we have entered into a new phase,” he said.
Not everyone is convinced Slim’s murder is simply business as usual. One source in Tripoli, who spoke to Arab News on condition of anonymity, believes Hezbollah has found itself backed into a corner.
“Hezbollah appears threatened to have lashed out like this,” the source said. “Something is taking place in the wings, but we don’t know what it is yet. It is perilous for the country that a new period of assassinations could take place on top of what we are already going through.”
When a political rival is murdered in Lebanon, the case is rarely solved. Factions and militias have long dominated the political landscape, characterized for long by clientelism, social patronage and sectarianism.
“Before any deal, parties tighten their ranks,” the source said. “Lebanese political parties look at politics as a business, not as a service to the people.” As a result, an ineffectual government has failed to launch a financial rescue plan or implement desperately needed economic reforms to pull the country out of the doldrums.
to poverty, yet more pain probably lies in store. (Photo: Marwan Tahtah)
Hezbollah’s fortunes depend to a large extent upon those of its patrons in Tehran, analysts say. Under sanctions pressure from the Trump administration, Iran and its various proxies across the region found themselves squeezed and isolated.
The US administration is expected to renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, which President Joe Biden helped broker while serving as Barack Obama’s vice president.
The Power of Not Now Mohanad Hage Ali/Carnegie MEC/March 11/2021
Despite statements to the contrary, Lebanon’s political class seems unenthusiastic about forming a government today.
Since the resignation of Lebanon’s government on August 10 last year following the devastating blast in Beirut Port, the Lebanese political class has been moving from one quandary to the other. The country’s pain has deepened as a majority of the population has fallen below the poverty line. The value of the Lebanese pound has collapsed, so that $1.00 is now equivalent to over LP10,000, while the official exchange rate is still at $1.00 equivalent to LP1,500.
In the past seven months, there have been multiple reasons for why the political class has delayed forming a government. This has included disagreement over granting the two Shi‘a parties, Hezbollah and Amal, the finance portfolio, President Michel Aoun’s insistence on holding a blocking third in any new government, and prime minister-designate Saad Hariri’s refusal to hand the Interior and Justice Ministries over to Aoun and his son in law Gebran Bassil.
However, these excuses are becoming less and less convincing. The three major forces in the government-formation process—Hariri’s Future Movement, the Shi‘a parties, and Aoun’s and Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement—are all hesitant to form a government, each for its own reasons. These range from their reading of regional geopolitical realities to their self-interest and political ambitions. They are all taking part in a spectacle bordering on the ridiculous.
Hariri has said that he would like to form a government to implement the French initiative brought to Beirut by President Emmanuel Macron last September. The plan calls for the formation of a “working government” that can implement reforms, which in turn would unlock foreign aid to Lebanon. Yet Hezbollah is not keen to form a government under the French plan, since its patron Iran prefers to deal directly with the United States over Lebanon, rather than with Paris. Hezbollah, in trying to accommodate Tehran, has not sought to break the deadlock in the cabinet formation process.
Iran and Hezbollah also remain wary of the impact of regional shifts after the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, as well as of the nature of a final settlement in Syria. Russia’s relations with Israel have facilitated coordinated Israeli airstrikes on Iran and its allies in Syria. At the same time, Moscow has exploited its relations with certain Gulf states, such as the UAE and Bahrain, to improve their relations with the regime in Damascus. Iran’s primary concern, or fear, is that its presence in Syria will be sacrificed on the altar of Arab reconstruction aid to the country and a normalization of relations between the Gulf states and Damascus, which hypothetically may extend to Israel. Therefore, holding Lebanon hostage increases Iranian leverage with the United States, and to an extent France. By maintaining uncertainty in Lebanon, Hezbollah is signaling that Iran is in charge of its destiny, no one else.
Aoun also does not want a new cabinet that would be formed under the conditions set by Saad Hariri. Instead, he wants to have enough leverage over it to secure the presidency for Bassil after Aoun’s mandate ends in 2022. The president and Bassil had sought veto power over any new government, to put Bassil in a powerful position for the presidency. That demand has since been dropped, given the wave of opposition from across the political spectrum. However, that only makes Aoun less enthusiastic about a government today.
At the same time, Aoun’s alliance with Hezbollah is not solid enough to secure the party’s support for Bassil’s presidential ambitions. This has made the president more insecure about his son in law’s political future and about his own disintegrating legacy, which is why he is uneasy about a government that would fail to meet his terms.
Another major problem for Aoun and Bassil is whether they will be able to retain control of the Energy Ministry. If they do not get the portfolio for the first time in over a decade, this could have political implications. Any reforms in the energy sector under a non-Aounist minister would highlight Bassil’s responsibility for Lebanon’s disastrous electricity situation.
Saad Hariri’s calculations are not very different from Aoun’s. Saad’s brother Bahaa, who had not been involved in Lebanese politics, made a comeback in 2017 and has been slowly building his base and securing media influence. He has adopted a critical attitude toward his brother and his concessions to Hezbollah, despite the party’s apparent role in the assassination of their father, Rafik, in 2005. Saad’s attempt to rebuild his ties with Saudi Arabia and improve his financial situation have failed. Basically, if he concedes to Hezbollah and Aoun on the finance, interior, and justice ministries, he may face Saudi opposition, which could increase his brother’s influence.
In addition to all these reasons, the political class in general does not appear eager to form a government, as it would need to implement painful reforms in order to unlock foreign aid. The country’s leaders would prefer a bailout in the context of a shift in regional or international politics, as the requested reforms today would require them to give up their leverage and patronage networks in the system.
By the same token, a consensus government would revive the narrative of the October 17 uprising, namely that the whole political class is responsible for the calamitous state of affairs in Lebanon. Therefore, the delay in the government is the result of a collective choice, and the politicians’ blame game is merely an act. Ultimately, they prefer to allow the current caretaker government of Hassan Diab to take the explosive step of lifting the remaining subsidies on vital goods. Only then would a new cabinet step in and pick up the pieces, preferably within the context of some sort of U.S.-Iran understanding. The political class views procrastination as the most suitable policy to serve its interests and those of its patrons abroad.
