A new Russian role in Lebanon
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/April/16
Following his meeting with Putin, Hariri hopes to steer Russia’s growing regional influence in his favor, at Hezbollah’s expense
A curious fact about Russia’s ongoing military intervention in Syria, which has killed at least 2,000 civilians and routed anti-regime rebels from swathes of strategic terrain in the north of the country since it began in September 2015, has been the absence of a widely-anticipated backlash from the region’s Sunni Arab powers, who support the Syrian opposition politically, financially and militarily. Officials from US President Barack Obama to EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini warned after Moscow’s airstrikes commenced that Russia was on course for another “Afghanistan” in Syria, referring to the Soviet Union’s defeat at the hands of Islamist guerillas in the 1980s. The Russians “risk being perceived by a large part of the Arab community, and Muslim citizens of Russia, as taking part in the Sunni-Shia divide,” said Mogherini.
What actually transpired, however, was very different. In October, with Russian operations fully underway, President Vladimir Putin met the hawkish Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, in Sochi, in a cordial encounter that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said “confirmed that Saudi Arabia and Russia have similar goals concerning Syria.” In February 2016, by which time evidence of Russia’s probable war crimes in Syria had been well-established, Bahrain’s King Hamad al-Khalifa even presented Putin with a specially-made ‘sword of victory,’ telling him he hoped it would bring “imminent victory, God willing.”
And, last week, former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, head of the predominantly-Sunni Future Movement, paid a visit to Moscow where he was granted an audience with both Lavrov and President Putin himself. For a leader whose political stances are generally seen as in tune with Saudi’s, Hariri’s remarks were noteworthy. In a half-hour interview with Russia’s state-funded RT network, Hariri said Moscow and Riyadh shared a “vision” for Syria. Brushing aside differences between the two “on the issue of Bashar al-Assad,” he stressed it was the “endgame” that mattered, saying, “I believe that we should not look at the details today, but we should look a little bit further down the line, and I think everybody’s going to be happy.”
Perhaps more significant still, at least for the Lebanese audience, was Hariri’s comment after meeting Lavrov that, “We value the large role played by Russia in the region, and we look for you to have a role in Lebanon too.” Back in Beirut, pundits scrambled to try and divine the meaning of this remark, and of Hariri’s visit overall. Some were quick to declare it a blow for Hezbollah; a successful effort by Hariri to drive a wedge between Moscow and the Party of God’s Iranian backers, building on purported tensions between the two Assad allies regarding the future of Syria. Political analyst Ali al-Amin, for instance, painted a picture of a Russia, having secured its vital interests in Syria, now moving to patch things up with its Gulf Arab and Western partners, pressing toward a political solution with little regard for any potentially competing Iranian agenda. Hezbollah, in Amin’s reading, today faces a “choice [between] submission to what the American-Russian Accord decides, or an exit from Syria with nothing but losses.”
Others wondered whether Hariri was trying to win, or consolidate, Russian support for his declared presidential candidate, Sleiman Franjieh – support that one newspaper claims has already been privately expressed. Certainly, Hariri himself said following his Lavrov meeting that he had told the foreign minister “the highest priority for me [regarding Lebanon] is electing a president,” a sentiment he has repeated since returning to Beirut. Amin’s report further claimed, based on anonymous sourcing, that Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov gave a “message” to Iran last month “that blocking the presidential election in Lebanon is no longer acceptable.”
The reality is a rather diluted blend of the two interpretations, according to a source close to Hariri who told NOW he talked several times to the former prime minister during his Moscow visit, and who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Number one, it was a fact-finding mission,” said the source. Hariri’s view of regional developments, he explained, is that “the Iranians are no longer the sole player [on the pro-regime side] in Syria.” Instead, they have been supplanted by Russia, and “the Russian role in Syria will translate itself in Lebanon.” Thus Hariri, like his Saudi allies, is exploring whether this is a development that can be steered in his favor.
“It boils down to [that] we’d rather discuss things with the Russians than the Iranians,” the source told NOW. “Now that the Russians are acquiring a kind of upper hand in politics, why not, instead of alienating them and opposing them, why not manipulate the Russian positioning to our [advantage]? In this sense, yes, Hariri would like to negotiate with the Russians, and he would like to see the Russians playing a more aggressive role in pushing back the Iranians and helping things evolve in a positive way in Lebanon.” A “more aggressive” regional role is by no means something to which the Russian president would be averse, according to Anna Borshchevskaya, Russia specialist and Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“Putin, for his part, is certainly looking to increase his influence in the Middle East, and this includes Lebanon,” Borshchevskaya told NOW. Though Lebanon may not be a top regional priority for Moscow, it does present at least three potential attractions: access to the Mediterranean Sea, which Putin may eye for his naval ambitions; untapped natural gas reserves, in which Russia has already shown interest, signing a memorandum of understanding with then-Energy Minister Gebran Bassil (now foreign minister) in 2013; and a construction industry that may have a principal hand in rebuilding Syria, if and when the war eventually subsides.
However, Borshchevskaya continued, there is no guarantee a more assertive Russian stance in Lebanon would work to Hariri’s advantage. For one thing, despite its positive relations with Israel, Russia has also forged a meaningful and enduring relationship with Hezbollah.
“The Muslim Brotherhood is officially designated as a terrorist organization in Russia. Hezbollah is not,” Borshchevskaya told NOW. “There have [also] been some visits from Hezbollah to Russia fairly recently […] this meeting with Hariri could perhaps be an attempt to appeal to the Sunni community, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that Russia’s policies definitely have a pro-Shia [inclination].”
Moreover, with that said, the bottom line of doing business with Putin’s Russia is potentially equally unfavorable to all comers; Sunni or Shiite, Arab or otherwise, said Borshchevskaya.
“Ultimately, Putin cares mostly about himself, and about staying in power, and about what he can get out of the region.”
**Amin Nasr contributed reporting.
