Is Hezbollah targeting a VP position in Lebanon?
Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Has electing a president in Lebanon become possible now that there are two candidates, Michel Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh? Or do Hezbollah’s aims extend beyond the Maronite presidential post and go as far as limiting the jurisdiction of the Sunni prime minister?
Hezbollah could have announced its support for Aoun as president, especially after Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea endorsed him even though they are bitter rivals. Hezbollah does not seem to be in a rush to elect a president. So was the 2008 Doha Agreement, which brought Michel Suleiman to the presidency, the last successful attempt to elect a president without having to amend the constitution? There are two presidential candidates from the March 8 coalition, but Hezbollah – which leads this coalition – is refusing to attend parliament sessions to elect a president. Is there a farce bigger than this?
The next few weeks will reveal whether Hezbollah aims to bring a candidate they approve of to the presidency, or amend the constitution in order to establish a fixed Shiite post through which Hezbollah, and thus Iran, can indefinitely control Lebanon. Such a post, which no one is publicly addressing, would be that of a vice president. From Hezbollah’s perspective, the vice president must have clear jurisdictions that grant him veto power over national decisions. Its excuse is that the Shiite sect is absent from executive authority, thus ignoring the fact that this authority is present in the cabinet.
Iranian control. Iran seeks to control Lebanon officially – not only via a sectarian militia – by amending the constitution before electing a president. This could be achieved by the constituent assembly, which Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah called for before issuing a retraction.
At last week’s joint press conference Aoun and Geagea turned a new page, putting behind intra-Christian disputes that lasted for more than 25 years and benefitted no one in Lebanon. Geagea was right to say the ball is now in Hezbollah’s court, and that the path has now been paved to elect a president within days. Meanwhile, I believe Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, Aoun’s son in law, does not miss a chance to show that he is Iran’s foreign minister. Therefore, Hezbollah thinks time is on its side and the situation is turning in its favor, particularly given the country’s bad situation in all fields, particularly the economy. What will Aoun do if Hezbollah prevents him from achieving his dream of becoming president, considering that the Iranian project in Lebanon goes beyond certain figures and as far as controlling the country via state institutions and the constitution, and through adopting a new electoral law that suits Hezbollah but not its rivals or pluralism? Lebanon is confronting a new and unprecedented situation. There are two presidential candidates from the March 8 coalition, but Hezbollah – which leads this coalition – is at the top of the list of those refusing to attend parliament sessions to elect a president. Is there a farce bigger than this? Is there a clearer exposure of Iran’s role in Lebanon?
Hezbollah kills four al-Qaeda-linked militants in north Lebanon
Reuters, Beirut Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Hezbollah fighters killed at least four members of the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front in a rocket attack on their car in northeastern Lebanon on Tuesday, a security source said. The incident took place in a restive area near the Syrian border, just outside the Lebanese town of Arsal, which Nusra Front and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters overran briefly in 2014 before withdrawing after clashes with the army.Shi’ite Hezbollah has previously targeted Sunni Islamist fighters in the area who have staged regular incursions from Lebanon’s war-torn neighbor. Nusra Front and ISIS – themselves enemies in Syria’s conflict – have in the past week clashed in the outskirts of Arsal. Nusra Front initiated the fighting with its jihadist rival by trying to capture ISIS positions in the area, the source said. ISIS counter attacked, pushing Nusra Front out of positions it controlled east of Arsal. The clashes killed several fighters on each side, the source said.Nusra Front freed 16 Lebanese soldiers and policemen in December in exchange for the release of jailed Islamists. It had captured the soldiers during the Arsal incursion in 2014. ISIS is believed to be still holding nine soldiers it captured. The Arsal incursion and the continued presence of Nusra Front and Islamic State in the border area in northern Lebanon are an example of the spillover from the five-year-old Syrian conflict. The spillover has also included bombings, such as an ISIS-claimed suicide attack in November that killed more than 40 people in Beirut.
Lebanese army kill 2, arrests 27 militants in border town
By Reuters Beirut Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Lebanese soldiers killed two gunmen and arrested at least 27 suspected militants, including a commander from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group, in a raid in the town of Arsal near the border with Syria, a security source on Wednesday. The source said that among those detained was Abu Bakr al-Raqqawi, a local commander of ISIS, and three high profile insurgents. He said the army carried out the raid after receiving intelligence that Raqqawi and others were in the northeastern town, which has suffered from a spillover of violence from nearly five years of conflict in Syria. Nusra Front and ISIS fighters have staged regular incursions into Arsal from the barren hills just outside the town. They overran the town briefly in 2014 before withdrawing to the hills after clashes with the army. But security sources say that Nusra and ISIS continue to have a strong presence in the town, where thousands of Syrian refugees live in dire conditions. They say sometimes the insurgents descend into the town at night to threaten or kill those who oppose them. Nusra Front freed 16 Lebanese soldiers and policemen in December in exchange for the release of jailed Islamists. It had captured the soldiers during the Arsal incursion in 2014. ISIS is believed to be still holding nine soldiers it captured.
