The potential alliance of Christian rivals Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/January 13/16
In January 2015, after nearly 30 years of conflict and communication breakdowns, the two main Christian political parties exchanged proposals after they concluded that dialogue has become a necessity. The dialogue that took place between the two Christian rivals came in parallel with the Sunni-Shiite dialogue that was taking place between Lebanese Forces’ ally – Future Movement, and Free Patriotic Movement’s ally – Hezbollah. The dialogue, which was not taken seriously by a large number of Lebanese people, had an unexpected outcome a year later: head of Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea might nominate the head of the Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun for presidency.
Last month, Samir Geagea said in a statement that the idea of nominating Aoun will become a serious option if the Future Movement insisted on nominating Suleiman Frangieh. “It is not confirmed yet that [Samir] Geagea will nominate Michel Aoun for presidency,” a source from the Lebanese Forces, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told NOW. “If he did, it won’t be a reaction to Frangieh’s nomination that shifted the presidential game to a different level. The presidential candidatures are now restricted between Aoun and Frangieh; that means any third candidate has no chances of winning the presidential elections.” The possibility of this nomination came a few weeks after the nomination of Suleiman Frangieh, Syria’s core ally, by head of the Future Movement Saad Hariri. During a recent meeting in Beit al-Wassat, Lebanese Forces MP Georges Adwan reportedly also said that the nomination of Aoun by Geagea is not a reaction to Hariri’s nomination of Frangieh.
However, analysts who spoke to NOW said that Geagea’s nomination of Aoun is a powerful maneuver in order to obstruct Frangieh’s nomination, and that Geagea is now ready to give the possibility of nominating Aoun a very high level of seriousness. “There are a lot of answers Geagea needs to find answers to,” said AnNahar analyst Rosanna Bou Mounsef. “The first one is the reason that pushed him to nominate Aoun today when he refused this suggestion when [Saad] Hariri tried to convince him of it almost 18 months earlier. Also, Geagea should take into consideration the repercussions of the nomination on the March 14 coalition that is currently suffering, and on the Lebanese Forces’ relation with Saad Hariri and the Future Movement from one side and with Saudi Arabia from the other side, especially since Saudi Arabia supported Frangieh’s nomination.”
Hezbollah does not have a clear statement regarding the presidential crisis. Theoretically, Hezbollah is still supporting the candidature of its March 8 ally Michel Aoun. However, the Shiite party cannot object to the candidature of Suleiman Frangieh, since he is Syria’s core ally and consequently Hezbollah’s ally. “Currently, we are the most silent,” said Hezbollah MP Ali Mokdad. “We are not discussing [the presidential crisis] in the meantime.” Mokdad also told NOW that Hezbollah might make a clear and detailed statement about the presidential candidates, but not now. It is not surprising that the presidential vacuum is not a Hezbollah priority. In fact, the Shiite party has long been accused by political analysts of benefiting from the vacuum and working to sabotage the presidential elections.
Furthermore, the recent Iranian-Saudi disagreements might have negative repercussions on Lebanon, the presidential elections in particular. “It is very important that the presidential issue is being discussed,” said Bou Mounsef. “However, the Iranian-Saudi struggle is definitely affecting Lebanon; [politicians] used it as a pretext to postpone discussing the presidential crisis for at least a few additional months. This pretext helped Lebanese politicians to play the cards they can in the meantime.”
Analysts who have been commenting on Geagea’s potential nomination of Aoun said that Geagea won’t nominate his rival unless he was sure that Aoun will never become president, but at the same time, he can use this nomination to sabotage Frangieh’s candidacy. “Geagea’s nomination of Aoun will empower Aoun, and it is a positive step towards Hezbollah. But, this does not mean that this nomination will lead to the election of Michel Aoun as a Lebanese president,” Bou Mounsef told NOW.
