Ceylan Ozbudak: Why Turkey’s downing of the Russian jet is justified/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh: Behind Putin and Khamenei’s courtship/Abdullah Hamidaddin: Turkey’s gift to Assad

Why Turkey’s downing of the Russian jet is justified
Ceylan Ozbudak/Al Arabiya/November 27/15

When the news about Turkey downing a Russian jet started emerging in the media, the first reaction of the Turkish public was neither celebration nor condemnation. An overwhelming majority of the public was asking, “What caused this?” The last time a NATO state shot down a Russian plane was in the 1950s. Russia and Turkey have been known to be on different sides of the Syrian conflict since 2011, however the two countries managed to keep the relations warm. Lately the Russian air force had been bombing the regions in Syria populated by Turkmens – an ethnic Turk minority – under the pretense of fighting terror. Turkmens are not a violent group of people but mostly civilians who had to take up arms due to the shift in the status quo regarding the civil war. Apart from the Turkmen villages, Russian aerial campaign has not been sparing civilians and children and women casualties were reported since the operations began.

The people of Turkey expect more respect from the Russian side regarding our borders, and more patience from the Turkish military before taking lethal action. Hiding behind the media mantra of fighting ISIS while hitting moderate rebel positions and civilian populated areas by and large, Russia has been shifting the conflict into a binary war between ISIS and the Assad regime.
Continuous violation of Turkish airspace
Russian jets have been violating Turkish airspace since Russia deployed troops to Syria in October. Inside the country, there was a pressure building against the unlawful actions of Russian airpower. There were prior incidents of Turkish military warning the Russian jets for their violations. If we go back to October 3 and 4, we will remember Russian jets violated Turkish airspace repeatedly. Russia also admitted that a Russian fighter jet actively locked on its radar to the Turkish F-16s sent to intercept it for 4.5 minutes. Notifying Turkey about the codes of the aircraft in the campaign would help reduce the stress of Russian violations over the Turkish airspace. All coalition reportedly forces notify Turkey about any aircraft which is going to be close to or inside its borders for a limited amount of time. Had Russia followed the same discipline, this could help Turkey overlook the violations.

The new rules of engagement were clear
I personally do not support shooting down planes and threatening neighboring armies. There should be a peaceful way out of these incidents. However, I have to say that Turkey’s actions were fully in line with the new rules of engagement adopted after Syria shot down a Turkish jet in 2012. According to the new rules, all elements approaching from Syria are considered an enemy threat and Turkey is entitled to warn the aircrafts that are within 10 miles of Turkish airspace. In case the warnings are not responded to, the aircraft in question is to be shot down. Russian military was aware of these rules and did not comply with them. This left Turkish military with this undesired choice. “Everyone must know that it is our international right and national duty to take any measure against whoever violates our air or land borders,” Prime Minister Davutoglu said in Ankara, making it clear this action did not target Russia as a state but the reckless jet, violating the rules. These kinds of unfavorable incidents are not entirely alien to Russia as well. We all remember Russia downed a Korean Airliner in 1983, mistaking it for a warplane due to problems in communication.

Russian Authorities not entirely truthful?
Even though Russia keeps claiming their jet was flying over Syria, Turkey proved with satellite images and radar recordings that the Russian fighter was in its air space. The surviving pilot claimed that they were not warned but the Turkish military also provided the audio recordings of the warnings they issued prior to the downing of the jet. According to these recordings, the Russian pilots were warned over a span of five minutes before an F-16 shot the jet down with a missile. Read also: ‘I knew it was going to happen’: MEA pilot recalls downing of Russian jet
In a show of support to Turkey’s actions, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg declared: “We stand in solidarity with Turkey and support the territorial integrity of our NATO ally.” This statement was followed by support from the U.S. and EU countries.

Thankfully, Turkish intellectuals called for de-escalation in tensions. Turkish author Adnan Oktar wrote for Russian, Chinese and Iranian outlets, saying: “It wouldn’t be reasonable to raise tensions due to the unwelcome incident between Turkey and Russia, but it should be evaluated with moderation and tranquility.” President Erdogan has said that Ankara has no wish to escalate the incident, also saying “Turkey is not on the side of tension, crisis and animosity.”In the wake of such an unwanted event, I believe the people of Turkey expect more respect from the Russian side regarding our borders, and more patience from the Turkish military before taking lethal action.

Behind Putin and Khamenei’s courtship
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya/November 27/15

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rarely meets with world leaders, but this week he hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin, who made his first visit to Iran since 2007. Putin held talks with Khamenei and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani. Moscow and Tehran are attempting to build a closer relationship. As part of the charm offensive, Moscow lifted the ban on tech imports to Iran on the same day Putin arrived in there, with a copy of an old handwritten Quran as a gift for Khamenei. Iran’s hardline media outlets, including Keyhan, raved about the successful meeting.
Although some policy analysts and scholars say Moscow and Tehran are allying to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power, the cooperation is nuanced and multifaceted. The question of how long this intensified bilateral relationship will last should be asked.

Shared interests
The timing of Putin’s visit is crucial. Both countries share a common interest in counterbalancing and scuttling U.S. foreign policy in the region. Putin and Iran’s hardliners need each other more than ever before. He also wants to reassert his global leadership after tensions between the West and Russia raised and economic sanctions were imposed on Moscow, primarily due to its annexation of Crimea. Moscow’s closer ties with Tehran extend its regional influence, and give it leverage that can be used to push the West to lift sanctions. Putin and Iran’s hardliners need each other more than ever before… Improving ties with Tehran has been a major pillar of Putin’s foreign policy.

Russia and Iran are attempting to intensify their military cooperation in Syria, as their interests are being threatened by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and other powerful Syrian rebel groups. While Russia relies on airstrikes, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies, such as Hezbollah, can provide the required boots on the ground to make territorial advancements. Russia favors Iran’s hardliners over its reformists. Hardliners, including Khamenei and IRGC officials, are less likely to undermine Moscow’s global influence by having rapprochement with the United States. Improving ties with Tehran has been a major pillar of Putin’s foreign policy. It was under his leadership that Mohammad Khatami became the first Iranian president to visit Russia since the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Differences
After the nuclear deal between six world powers and Tehran, the latter’s improved ties with European countries and its rapprochement with the United States raised Russian fears that Tehran was leaning toward the West. Moscow is attempting to cajole Tehran by offering several irresistible deals. Putin announced that Russia was ready to provide a $5 billion state loan to Tehran, and increase trade in several fields, including energy and railway electrification. He also said his country would resume exporting nuclear technology to Iran, modernizing the heavy water reactor in Arak, and support Tehran in exporting additional and highly enriched uranium.

One of Russia’s main concerns is that the West might decrease its energy dependence by tapping into Iran’s oil and gas sectors. Iran seeks a larger role in the gas market, and is welcoming Western partnership. Moscow and Tehran have the first- and second-largest gas reserves in the world. Improved ties between Tehran and the West could endanger Russian exports to Iran (mainly petroleum), as former Soviet states could become better alternatives for Tehran to purchase petroleum. Iran is playing its cards wisely. By playing the West and Russia against each other, Tehran is advancing its regional hegemony. Although Russia and Iran are expected to become closer, there are still limitations. Moscow does not want to damage its ties with other regional powers and Iran’s rivals, including Israel and Turkey. Protecting these relationships would create obstacles between Moscow and Tehran. However, since the geopolitical and ideological gaps between the United States and Iran are too deep to bridge, Moscow and Tehran will continue to seize the opportunity by relying on each other due to their convergence of interests in the region and their shared antipathy toward Washington.

Turkey’s gift to Assad
Abdullah Hamidaddin/Al Arabiya/November 27/15

From the moment the news came out, political analysts knew that it did not matter whether the Russian plane had violated Turkey’s airspace. Moscow said it had not, while Ankara and its NATO allies said it had, but it was clear that what would happen would not be influenced by the technical issue of airspace. Talk of Turkey’s right to protect its airspace was only for diplomatic rhetoric and official statements. Also, no one expects a war to erupt – neither country wants that. What I personally suspect is that Turkey may have wanted was to bring NATO to its side. This seems the only reason that makes sense. I don’t know why would Ankara shoot down a single plane that reportedly spent about 17 seconds in its airspace, especially that it was allegedly not flying further into Turkey. Perhaps Ankara found this violation an opportunity to escalate in a way that invoked the NATO charter?

Russia has brought in an air defense system, permanently killing the idea of a no-fly zone. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could not be happier. I assume this because since Russia started its operations in Syria, the Turks have felt helpless as they watch the rope becoming tighter around the necks of their allies in Syria. Moreover, Ankara knew that continuing support for its allies would have to result at some point in a confrontation with Russia. It also knew that this confrontation would only happen in Syria, and thus not oblige NATO to act. As such, downing the plane was not a tactical military action, but a strategic one.

Change of tune
After much pomp about Turkey’s sovereignty being violated and the right to protect itself, Ankara now says it did not know it was a Russian plane. It is as if Turkey is saying if it knew it was Russian, it would have tolerated the violation of its airspace. What happened to explain this change in tone? Washington was supporting Turkish claims of airspace violation and the right to retaliate. Why then come out so apologetic and in a very unsophisticated fashion? Well, NATO did not jump in. Various members simply called for de-escalation. NATO is more worried about escalation in Ukraine, and about the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), than an accident on the Syrian-Turkish border.

Moreover, Turkey had long been known to support ISIS, and for a while the world, including NATO, looked the other way. After the Paris attacks and U.N. Security Council resolution 2249 – which targets ISIS and its supporters – this was no longer the case. Now France and the world want to eradicate ISIS once and for all, and Turkey’s support for the group will no longer be tolerated. Turkey realized very quickly that downing the plane was a mistake. Russia has taken advantage of the situation. It started to formally expose Turkey’s relationship with ISIS, and it intensified its bombing of the border region. Most importantly, Russia has brought in an air defense system, ending all Turkish dreams of ever flying into Syria again, and permanently killing the idea of a no-fly zone.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could not be happier. He needed Moscow to fight on his side, but he needed more to feel confident that the Russians are stuck. They were in Syria fighting ISIS, but he wanted them to be there as a matter of Russian national pride. Assad wanted the Russians to need him, not just to want to support him. For Moscow, he has now become it way of getting revenge for the shooting down of the plane. This is the gift Turkey gave Assad.