Julian Pecquet: Congress muted ahead of Turkish elections/Rami Galal:Even fatwas don’t bring Egyptians out to vote/Alireza Ramezani: Rouhani shifts gears on economy

Congress muted ahead of Turkish elections
Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/October 29/15
US lawmakers are largely staying silent ahead of this weekend’s snap elections in Turkey despite growing fears of an authoritarian drift. Only a few dozen House lawmakers have signed on to a letter to President Barack Obama urging him to help “ensure the integrity” of the elections. Meanwhile, several lawmakers have introduced bills highlighting the NATO member’s stepped-up involvement in the war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State. “Nobody wants a rupture with Turkey,” said Rep. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a frequent critic of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support for Islamists in Syria and his rhetoric on Israel. Engel said he was not aware of the letter to Obama. The low-key effort, from Reps. Todd Rokita, R-Ind., and Alan Lowenthal, D-Calif., had attracted 65 signatures, mostly from relatively low-ranking members, as of Oct. 26.
“We ask that the United States continue to support and encourage free, open, and fair elections in Turkey,” the letter states. “In light of recent events, concerns have been raised about the Turkish government’s commitment to the democratic process. Recently, leading Turkish satellite, cable, and Internet broadcasters have announced they will no longer broadcast news channels critical of the government.” Simultaneously, high-ranking House Foreign Affairs Committee member Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, introduced a resolution last week praising Turkey for allowing US aircraft from operating from Incirlik air base and for its “well-established record of conducting free and fair elections.” And Rep. Alexander Mooney, a Republican from the coal-producing state of West Virginia, introduced legislation earlier this month urging the Obama administration to start talks on a bilateral trade deal focusing on energy.
Neither the House nor the Senate foreign affairs panels are expected to send anyone over to monitor the elections. Paradoxically, America’s hands-off approach comes as Turkey itself is getting more involved in US affairs. Ankara’s embassy in Washington has recently hired a British law firm as part of its legal attack against Pennsylvania-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, according to documents filed this week with the US Department of Justice. The embassy has agreed to pay the Amsterdam & Partners LLP up to $50,000 per month to “provide advice and representation relating to potential claims under treaty, US law and/or international law held by the Republic of Turkey against individuals and/or entities in the United States.” Ankara has launched what it calls a “global investigation” into Gulen’s movement, Hizmet, accusing it of running a “parallel structure” in Turkey determined to overthrow the democratically elected government. Gulenists say the claims are nonsense and aim to silence Erdogan’s critics and independent judicial authorities investigating alleged corruption by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). “We have been retained by the [Turkish] Republic to expose allegedly unlawful conduct by the Gulen network worldwide,” founding partner Robert Amsterdam said at a press conference in Washington on Oct. 26, according to Today’s Zaman. Amsterdam also registered as a lobbyist on the Turkey account this week.

Even fatwas don’t bring Egyptians out to vote
Rami Galal/Al-Monitor/October 29/15
CAIRO — The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections, held Oct. 18-19, opened the floodgates once again for religious and political fatwas. The surprising thing, however, is that Egypt’s official religious institutions alongside Al-Azhar’s senior scholars have had the upper hand in issuing these fatwas that continue to be highly censured by the political Islam movement. The Egyptian Ministry of Awqaf dedicated the Oct. 16 Friday sermon to call upon citizens to vote in the coming elections.Egypt’s Grand Mufti Shawki Allam issued a statement Oct. 17 calling those who refrain from voting “sinners.” Abdullah Nagar, a member of the Islamic Research Academy, issued a fatwa stating, “Not participating in the electoral process is tantamount to abandoning prayer.” His words have gone viral over social media. In the same vein, an alliance of five Al-Azhar groups — including Al-Azhar Free Sons, the World Federation of Al-Azhar Scientists, the Egyptian Syndicate of Preachers, the Union of Young Imams and Preachers Abroad and Scientists Against the Coup in Europe — issued a fatwa Oct. 15 stressing the sacredness of participating in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Abdul Hamid al-Atrash, the former head of Al-Azhar’s Fatwa Committee, told Al-Monitor, “Those who wish to issue a fatwa have to first study the doctrines of the four imams, the senior scholars for Sunnis, who are Abu Hanifa, Ibn Milik, al-Shafi’i and Ibn Hanbal. They have to be pious and devout Muslims and not inclined toward fame and public appearances.”
He added that participating in the electoral process is a national duty with religious significance, because the parliamentary elections have a significant role in the stability of the country. Therefore, no one should abstain from voting without an excuse. And if they believe that candidates should not be elected, they can always cast blank votes, but at least they will have participated.
“The fatwa saying that abstaining from voting is like abandoning prayer is too much and involves excessive intimidation, as performing prayer is the second pillar in Islam and cannot be compared to elections. [Prayer] should not be politicized for mundane reasons, as Islam regulates all spheres of life, including politics,” Atrash said. He added, “The civil and secular forces made a mistake when they called for the separation of religion and state, especially under Muslim Brotherhood rule. Whereas today there have been fatwas to the contrary, which caused confusion among voters as to what should be done now.”
For his part, Nagar told Al-Monitor, “Sharia regulates all aspects of life. The upcoming parliament will achieve stability for the country, and abstaining from voting is likely to lead to serious consequences, disrupting the state. “Man-made laws differentiate between public and private laws; so do religions. God has rights and worshippers have theirs. For instance, when worshippers abandon prayers, they wrong God. Similarly, abstaining from voting will have adverse consequences on worshippers, who would have sinned as they refrained from testifying that there are some candidates who would serve their country well. Therefore, boycotting elections is a more flagrant [violation] than abandoning prayers in the eyes of God.” Nagar said, “In my fatwa, I called for participation in the election, not for voting for certain candidates supporting President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood used fatwas for libel and slander against him.”
He added, “Had these elections been held under the Muslim Brotherhood, I would have issued a fatwa saying that those who cast their ballot will go to hell, because the Muslim Brotherhood is the hand of the US and Israel in spreading chaos in the Middle East.” “The Brotherhood’s advocates terrorized me intellectually on social networking sites, while they are now raising their voices in the world as they are not allowed to demonstrate. How are they now demanding the very same thing they had been opposing? All I did was speak my mind, but they did not like my opinion.”Ali Abu Al-Hassan, former head of Al-Azhar’s Fatwa Committee, told Al-Monitor, “The main goal of elections is to build a state, which is done through an elected council. However, this is closely linked to the candidates. If they were corrupt, this will not help build a state, and thus boycotting the elections ought to be valid.”Abu Al-Hassan said that both sides have their own reasoning. While the first camp, the state’s religious scholars, see the upcoming parliament as beneficial for the country, the second camp, the opposition scholars, deemed it otherwise and chose to boycott elections. Thus, neither ought to claim that its fatwas truly represent Islam. The head of the Economics and Political Sciences Department at Cairo University, Hassan Nafaa, told Al-Monitor, “Employing religion in politics was not limited to the political Islamic movement, as the state employs religion in politics according to its needs.”
He added that the clerics who have strong ties with the state justify its every move by referring to Quranic texts, just as extremist groups do. Religious texts are used to accuse the state of being un-Islamic. Religion has become an easy tool accessible to everyone, without any control. The state puts forth the rules only to be the first to break them, and others only follow suit. Nafaa also said that the Muslim Brotherhood is not the only party to oppose the current ruling regime — there is also the young people of the January 25 Revolution. They believe that the current ruling elite will lead to autocracy and that Sisi will end up doing what he wants, so there is no need to go to the polls.

Rouhani shifts gears on economy
Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/October 29/15
TEHRAN, Iran — After months of resisting calls for an economic stimulus package, President Hassan Rouhani has finally changed his stance on the matter. This will be the second such short-term plan initiated since he took office in August 2013. The first 18-month plan was aimed at curbing galloping inflation and fighting recession by committing to fiscal discipline. However, the current plan, which is scheduled to last six months, seems to be a shift away from the administration’s central approach of using a contractionary monetary policy to achieve single-digit inflation by March 2017.Last month, speculation that the Iranian economy has begun faltering again following four consecutive quarters of growth forced four key ministers to write a letter to the president, warning him of a looming financial crisis in the country. Crippling sanctions have yet to be lifted and a credit crunch has already put overwhelming pressure on banks, on which all industry sectors — and even the government — are reliant for project finance. Thus, bitter realities on the ground coupled with pressure from conservative media as well as some figures from inside his own administration appear to have finally pushed Rouhani to give up his contractionary monetary policy, which has so far decreased inflation to 15% from more than 40%.
Chronic inflation has been the root cause of economic backwardness in Iran, and the Rouhani administration took office with determination to confront this issue once and for all, despite criticism. However, the new stimulus package is a shift from Rouhani’s original goals, as it envisages a cut in commercial banks’ legal reserve requirements from 13% to 10% — a move that will certainly increase both the money multiplier and the money base. The Rouhani administration also seeks to inject money supply estimated at 75 trillion rials ($2.5 billion) into development projects to stimulate growth. Critics are now warning that these decisions will reverse efforts to lower inflation to the 14% target by March 2016. In fact, the expanded money supply and other efforts aimed at encouraging the private sector to borrow for projects are likely too little to stimulate the economy — but large enough to ignite inflation expectations. Indeed, the credit set to be released by banks into the Iranian economy “doesn’t address the fundamental factors that have depressed the economy,” argues Mehrdad Emadi, an economist at the BetaMatrix consultancy in London. A new survey conducted by leading economic daily Donya-e Eghtesad shows that a majority of Iranian economists (86.4%) believe an expansionary monetary policy has no or little impact on growth. Most of the 44 surveyed prominent economists say the main reason for the recession is not the fiscal discipline of past years, with only a minority backing the idea that stimulation of demand will be an effective way to boost growth.
Despite the criticism, administration officials are confident that they will be able to minimize the inflationary impact of their new policies. Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayebnia has said the government is trying to pay part of its huge debt to banks through a debt market, in an attempt to avoid a rise in inflation. This could indeed be the only positive point of the new stimulus package, as government debt can be sold as participatory, sukuk and treasury bonds — all of which are tradable in a secondary market. According to Tayebnia, the aim of the debt market is to liquidate the assets of creditors, paving the way for the central bank to adopt an open market policy. “Our aim is to organize the government debt in a bid to resolve financial straits and achieve the growth targets,” he argues.
The fact of the matter is that the Rouhani administration has not been fortunate enough to prove that continued fiscal discipline would result in the fulfillment of its goals. The global economy has shrunk more than expected this year, affecting the Iranian economy. Furthermore, plunging oil prices and lower international demand for Iran’s mineral products have put more pressure on the national budget, threatening the fragile recovery. On the other hand, the weak domestic consumption of durable goods like cars and home appliances have added to the government’s financial problems. A majority of Iranian consumers are still waiting for sanctions to be lifted to make such purchases, contributing to the weak demand. According to Tayebnia, the administration’s revenues dropped by 6% in the first half of this fiscal year compared to the same period last year, leaving the government in a desperate struggle to keep industries afloat until the end of this Iranian fiscal year, March 2016, when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is expected to be implemented and major sanctions removed. A couple of weeks before the administration unveiled its new stimulus package, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the Iranian economy will expand by 4.4% in 2016, as Iranian banks resume transactions with global counterparts and multinational companies dare to invest in Iran in the absence of major sanctions. In this vein, the administration’s economic stimulus package may be aimed at buying time until sanctions are lifted. It could also be a maneuver ahead of the crucial parliamentary elections in late February, with Rouhani hoping that his allies and supporters will win enough seats to hold a clear majority in the parliament. Whatever the case may be, the next few months look set to be rocky for the economy — and the administration.