How to Reach a Transitional Truce in Syria
Middle East Briefing/October 03/15
Globally, there are two opposed dynamics related to Syria after the Obama-Putin meeting. One is perused by the two powers to find a way forward for a transitional phase. The other is shaping up in the current debate between the opposition groups and between their regional backers. In order to achieve the transitional phase hoped for, no one should underestimate the ups and downs of the road that will get us there. In other words, if the attempt to move forward erred, we may find ourselves at the end with a transitional period that is only transitional to more war and a deeper crisis. The nature of this transitional period, and whether it is really transitional towards a meaningful solution, will be defined by seeing the map of the opposition in its shades and different colors, not in the raw black and white picture offered by Mr. Putin in the UN. This opposition is the other hand without which we will hear no applause.
But this is not the only requirement. There are other requirements that need to be considered. First there is the need to start from where we actually are, and not from any subjective categorization of the opposition groups. Second we need a truce, not only for humanitarian reasons but because this is a precondition for any political solution to unfold. Mr. Putin might have been hardening his announced views deliberately in order to get a deal in sanctions or Ukraine or any other issues in his mind. But he must know as clear as everyone does that if a political solution is not based on popular acceptance from the majority of Syrians it will end up being neither political nor solution. If you want to paint something and call it a different name do not try to convince others that you have changed anything.
Therefore, the issue now is where to start in order to reach a real transitional period that guarantees free elections, the return of the refugees and the beginning of meaningful talks between the direct parties of the crisis. We believe that to designate the final status (the transitional government) as the starting point will make the job more difficult and may lead to a false transition. Syria’s opposition backers are determined to increase their support to their clients on the ground as a response to the substantial Russian military aid to Assad. Publicly, they may say something different, but it is inconceivable for them to see Assad bomb his way back to the pre-2011 situation. By the same token, the opposition groups seem to be determined as well to fight the Russians. They do not seem to be afraid of the Russian gunships or tanks. Preparations for attacks on Russian sites in Latakia have already started. The intention of the armed opposition is to get Putin to bleed enough in Syria until he orders pulling back his forces.
In general, we estimate that there is still quite some energy trapped in the regional and local crisis to guarantee yet another long round of war in Syria. But there might be a path that can take the Syrian crisis to a quieter spot where some time could be available for a better shot at a solution. Putin says that Assad is important for preserving the state structure. Iran says the same. We have to admit that they have a point in this argument. Police states are built like reversed pyramids, the top down. The system of loyalties is personal not institutional. But two questions should be addressed to both the Russians and the Iranians: 1) if the objective would be to preserve Assad and the State, both were there before 2011, how can we solve the crisis? 2) Have you examined ways to soft land the regime into a platform where the State is preserved but without Assad?
In any case, neither Assad nor the State exist in any real meaning over the majority of the country at this actual moment. Starting from this fact which is accepted by all, even the Russians and the Iranians, let us see how we can move forward towards a solution that does not necessarily start with the departure of Assad but rather starts from the reality of the situation on the ground.
Roughly, we have ISIL and Nusra (hereafter “the Radicals”) in one side and the rest of the opposition in the other. We can explain the validity of this categorization in another occasion. But for now, let us accept it at face value for a moment. In this rest of the opposition (the non-ISIL, non-Nusra), we identify two major groups: Ahrar Al Sham in the North and Jaish Al Islam in the south. Each of these two groups control considerable territories already. Whatever happens on the diplomatic front will have to be brought down to the ground and be implemented somehow. Otherwise, it will remain wishful thinking. And in order for any political solution that aims at unifying all firepower to fight the Radicals, in order for it to deserve its name, the rest of the opposition has to jump on the bandwagon of such a solution.
Therefore, the issue boils down to reaching a deal that can make the non-Radicals change their objective. Obviously, they want Assad to go. And obviously as well, the man should go as it is virtually impossible for him to preside over a national anything, not only a national State or a national fight against the Radicals. But even if the removal of Assad is pushed a little down the road, there are other things that should not. In view of the current reality of the de facto partition, a reversed process should start from bottom up. That is to say that both Ahrar and Jaish Al Islam should be told that they are responsible for their areas of control and they will be recognized as such within a unified Syria ruled by a soft, weak and symbolic federal government. Minorities will remain wherever they are without any sectarian intervention in their affairs.
That means Alawi community will remain wherever it is and will be secure from any Sunni attacks. What goes for the Alawis will go for the Sunnis, no barrel bombs, no attacks from the militia called “the national army” and no pressures on trade routes. In return, these different “regions” will participate in a joint effort in which all other Syrians take part to fight the Radicals with assistance from the UN. The “central” government will be composed of representatives from these different regions. Each region will have its distinct border lines. The central government will exist in each region as much as required by this region itself. For those who understandably refuse Assad to be their president, they will enjoy a semi-autonomous status in their regions until Assad goes. If their rejection of Assad prevents the formation of that weak “central” government, be it. The government should be formed anyway without them. The main condition would be that no one attacks their regions in return for a clear commitment to fight the Radicals and not to expand their control beyond their designed regions. They should be invited later on to participate in the government when conditions allow.
If they oppose the fact that Assad is still in Damascus, the should be told that effectively he is the president of a “region” not of all of Syria as there is nothing called all of Syria standing right now before us. While he will remain in name the president of all of Syria, it is these groups that run their regions without any intervention from the imaginary center. This concept allows to go around entrenched interests (and actually use them favorably). Foreign aid to each region could be used later to inject some muscle into the central government and to the anti-radicals campaign. This “central” government will preserve the powers of the Central Bank, the civil records, foreign policy, taxation, education and health services, a small “national” army and some other functions. These functions are already either non-existent or part of the central government actual responsibilities at present. Judiciary, security and civil administration will be left for these regions to perform.
Final status talks could start later, in a little more favorable circumstances, to rebuild the national army and centralize the judiciary and police structures. During that time civil administrations should be built in the different regions. These region must be informed that in all actuality, Assad is not their President and that they are the ones responsible for their regions. All this should be introduced as a transitional phase. This fact should be emphatically repeated in order to pick the thread from where it is now and try to calm down the whole situation. If the Arabs accept this concept, it better be introduced by them. The commitments of the non-Radical fighting groups not to cross their areas should be guaranteed by their regional backers.
We understand that the current phase of international-regional talks about Syria is going through a critical phase. However, we wish that the able diplomats that are conducting these talks start from the point of fragmentized framework to reach, in a later phase, a cemented whole. By this we mean that if we push hard the issue of a global solution or a final status at this sensitive moment we will reach a dead end. Assad or anybody else could be the president of the Alawis if they want him. In fact he currently is. The illusion that he is the president of all Syria is bought only by the terminally naïve or the blind. Will that bring us a unified Syria during the transitional period? No. It would not. But we do not have now anything close to a unified Syria anyway. The name of such a plan is a temporary and organized “Hudna” or truce. The organizing principles would be: Each party will fight ISIL and Nusra under supervision from international powers and each will commit to keeping their regions Radicals-free, each player will abstain from fighting any other player and all will respect civilians in general and minorities in particular, and each region will allow the refugees to return to their homes. The war will be waged against areas under the control of ISIL and Nusra and gradually be an integrated operation. If Russia and Iran are really sincere in saying they want to fight terrorists, they should not oppose this approach based on the simple fact that only Sunnis can really defeat the Radicals.
Non-ISIL and non-Nusra opposition may accept this temporary truce if they know its time limit and the endgame and if they are promised to receive help to be able to build regional administrative bodies to enable them to run their regions. From that fragmentized Syria, we can later on provide facilitators to induce the process of gathering these pieces into a one Syria without Bashar Al Assad. The fact that there will be needs to fight the radicals and to normalize life in the non-Radicals controlled areas may help get Syrians back on the road to each other.
Sweden: ‘No Apartments, No Jobs, No Shopping Without a Gun’
Ingrid Carlqvist/Gatestone institute/October 03/15
The Swedes see the welfare systems failing them. Swedes have had to get used to the government prioritizing refugees and migrants above native Swedes.
“There are no apartments, no jobs, we don’t dare go shopping anymore [without a gun], but we’re supposed to think everything’s great. … Women and girls are raped by these non-European men, who come here claiming they are unaccompanied children, even though they are grown men. … You Cabinet Ministers live in your fancy residential neighborhoods, with only Swedish neighbors. It should be obligatory for all politicians to live for at least three months in an area consisting mostly of immigrants… [and] have to use public transport.” — Laila, to the Prime Minister.
“Instead of torchlight processions against racism, we need a Prime Minister who speaks out against the violence… Unite everyone. … Do not make it a racism thing.” — Anders, to the Prime Minister.
“In all honesty, I don’t even feel they [government ministers] see the problems… There is no one in those meetings who can tell them what real life looks like.” – Laila, on the response she received from the government.
The week after the double murder at IKEA in Västerås, where a man from Eritrea who had been denied asylum grabbed some knives and stabbed Carola and Emil Herlin to death, letters and emails poured into the offices of Swedish Prime Minister (PM) Stefan Löfven. Angry, despondent and desperate Swedes have pled with the Social Democratic PM to stop filling the country with criminal migrants from the Third World or, they write, there is a serious risk of hatred running rampant in Sweden. One woman suggested that because the Swedish media will not address these issues, Löfven should start reading foreign newspapers, and wake up to the fact that Sweden is sinking fast.
Carola Herlin, Director of the Moro Backe Health Center, was murdered on August 10, along with her son, in the IKEA store in Västerås, Sweden.During the last few decades, Swedes have had to get used to the government (left and right wing parties alike) prioritizing refugees and migrants above native Swedes. The high tax level (the average worker pays 42% income tax) was been accepted in the past, because people knew that if they got sick, or when they retired or otherwise needed government aid, they would get it.
Now, Swedes see the welfare system failing them. More and more senior citizens fall into the “indigent” category; close to 800,000 of Sweden’s 2.1 million retirees, despite having worked their whole lives, are forced to live on between 4,500 and 5,500 kronor ($545 – $665) a month. Meanwhile, seniors who immigrate to Sweden receive the so-called “elderly support subsidy” — usually a higher amount — even though they have never paid any taxes in Sweden.
Worse, in 2013 the government decided that people staying in the country illegally have a right to virtually free health and dental care. So while the destitute Swedish senior citizen must choose between paying 100,000 kronor ($12,000) to get new teeth or living toothless, a person who does not even have the right to stay in Sweden can get his teeth fixed for 50 kronor ($6). The injustice, the housing shortage, the chaos surrounding refugee housing units and the sharp slide of Swedish students in PISA tests — all these changes have caused the Swedes to become disillusioned. The last straw was that Prime Minister Löfven had nothing to say about the murders at IKEA.
Gatestone Institute contacted to the Swedish government, to obtain emails sent to the Prime Minister concerning the IKEA murders. According to the “principle of public access to official documents,” all Swedes have the right to study public documents kept by authorities — with no questions asked about one’s identity or purpose. The government, however, was clearly less than enthusiastic about sharing the emails: It took a full month of reminders and phone calls before they complied with the request.
What follows are excerpts from emails sent from private citizens to Prime Minister Stefan Löfven:
From Mattias, a social worker and father of four, “a dad who wants my kids to grow up in Sweden the way I had the good fortune of doing, without explosions, hand grenades, car fires, violence, rape and murder at IKEA”:
“Hi Stefan. I am a 43-year-old father of four, who is trying to explain to my children, ages 6-16, what is going on in Sweden. I am sad to say that you and your party close your eyes to what is happening in Sweden. All the things that are happening [are] due to the unchecked influx from abroad. You are creating a hidden hatred in Sweden. We are dissatisfied with the way immigration is handled in Sweden, from asylum housing to school issues. And it takes so long to get a job, many people give up before they even get close. Mattias”
Marcus, 21, wrote:
“Hi Stefan, I am one of the people who voted for you. I live in Helsingborg, still with my parents because there are no apartments available. I can see where I live that as soon as an old person moves out, eight foreigners immediately move in: they just bypass us young, Swedish people in line. With all that is going on in Sweden – rapes, robberies, the IKEA murders and so on — why aren’t non-Swedes sent back to their countries when they commit crimes? Of course we should help refugees, but they should be the right kind of refugees. … I’m sorry to say this, Stefan, but the Sweden Democrats should be allowed to rule for four years and remove the people who do not abide by the laws, and who murder or destroy young women’s lives. It is horrible, I have a job that pays poorly because there are no jobs. Sweden has more people than jobs.”
Peter wrote:
“Esteemed Prime Minister. I am writing to you because I am very worried about the development in Swedish society. I am met daily by news of shootings, exploding hand grenades/bombs, beatings, rapes and murders. This is our Sweden, the country that, when you and I grew up, was considered one of the safest in the world. “You, in your role as Prime Minister, have a responsibility to protect everyone in the land, regardless of whether they were born here or not. Unfortunately, I can see that you are not taking your responsibility seriously. I follow the news daily, and despite our now having suffered another act of madness, this time against a mother and son at IKEA, I do not see any commitment from you? … “You should emphatically condemn the violent developments we see in this country, allocate resources to the police, customs and district attorneys to slow and fight back (not just build levees and overlook) criminal activity.”
Sebastian wrote:
“Hi Stefan! After reading about the horrible deed at IKEA in Västerås, I am now wondering what you are going to do to make me feel safe going to stores and on the streets of Sweden. What changes will there be to make sure this never happens again? Will immigration really continue the same way?”Benny wrote: “Hi, I’m wondering, why is the government quiet about such an awful incident? The whole summer has been characterized by extreme violence, shootings, knifings and explosions. The government needs to take vigorous action so we can feel safe.”
Laila’s subject line reads: “Is it supposed to be like this?”
“Are we supposed to go outside without arming ourselves? Rape after rape occurs and no one is doing anything about it. I was born and raised in Vårby Gård, but seven years ago, we had to move because we couldn’t take the dogs out in the evenings due to the non-Europeans driving on the sidewalks. If you didn’t move out of the way, they would jump out of the car and hit you. If you called the police, they do nothing — in a suburb of Stockholm. When my brother told some of these men off, a rocket (the kind you use at New Year’s) appeared in his mailbox. You can imagine how loud the blast was. Women and girls are raped by these non-European men, who come here claiming they are unaccompanied children, even though they are grown men….
“It is easy to get weapons today, I wonder if that is what we Swedes need to do, arm ourselves to dare to go shopping. Well, now I am getting to what happened at a major department store: Two people were killed and not just killed, there is talk online of beheading. “The Prime Minister will not say a word, but resources are allocated to asylum housings, a slap in the face for the relatives who just had two of their kin slain. Swedish newspapers will not say a word, but fortunately, there are foreign newspapers that tell the truth. We Swedes can’t change apartments, we live five people in three bedrooms. Two of us are unemployed, looking, looking and looking for work. The only option is employment agencies. I’m 50 years old, on part-time sick leave because of two chronic illnesses, I cannot run around from one place to another. But more and more asylum seekers keep coming in. There are no apartments, no jobs, we don’t dare go shopping anymore, but we’re supposed to think everything’s great.
“Unfortunately, I believe the Prime Minister needs to start reading foreign newspaper to find out that Sweden is going under. I found out that the mass immigration costs billions every year, and the only thing the immigrants do is smoke waterpipes in places like Vårby Gård. This is happening in other places too, of course. Now it’s starting to spread; you will see that in the opinion polls, next time they are published. Soon, all Swedes will vote for the Sweden Democrats. They are getting more and more supporters every day. “You Cabinet Ministers do not live in the exposed areas, you live in your fancy residential neighborhoods, with only Swedish neighbors. It should be obligatory for all politicians to live for at least three months in an area consisting mostly of immigrants, the car should be taken from you so you’d have to use public transport. … After three months, you would see my point. “I am scared stiff of what is happening in this country. What will the government do about this?”
Anders wrote:
“Hi Stefan, why don’t you, as our Prime Minister, react more against all the violence that is escalating in our country? [Such as] the double murder at IKEA in Västerås. Add to that the bombings and other things happening in Malmö. Instead of torchlight processions against racism, we need a Prime Minister who speaks out against the violence, who says that it’s wrong no matter which ethnic group is behind it or at the receiving end of it.
“Because all the people living in Sweden are Swedish, right? A torchlight procession against racism only highlights the fact that it’s immigrants committing these crimes. What we need now is a clear signal from our popularly elected [officials] that violence needs to stop now. Sweden is supposed to be a haven away from violence.
“I’m asking you as our Prime Minister, take a stand against the violence. Unite everyone in Sweden into one group and do not make it a racism thing.” Some of the people received a reply from Carl-Johan Friman, of the Government Offices Communications Unit; others have not received any reply at all. A typical response goes: “Thank you for your email to Prime Minister Stefan Löfven. I’ve been asked to reply and confirm that your email has reached the Prime Minister’s Office and is now available for the Prime Minister and his staff. It is of course not acceptable that people should be exposed to violence and criminal activities in their everyday life. Many efforts are made to counteract violence, and quite correctly, this needs to be done without pitting groups against each other. Thank you for taking the time to write and share your views, they are important in shaping government policies.”
Gatestone Institute contacted Laila, one of the people who emailed, and asked her if she was satisfied with the answer she got. Laila replied: “No, I’m not satisfied with the answer, because they didn’t even respond to what I was talking about. In all honesty, I don’t even feel they see the problems. They’re talking about what it looks like when they have their meetings, but there’s no one in those meetings who can tell them what real life looks like. It feels like the answer I got was just a bunch of nonsense. They understand that people are scared. They talk about demonstrating against racism; they seem to be completely lost. The politicians do not understand how things work in Swedish society, because they live in their safe, snug neighborhoods where things are quiet. But a lot of Swedes are forced to live in immigrant-heavy neighborhoods, because they cannot afford an apartment somewhere else.”
The anger at the government’s non-reaction to the IKEA-murders also led to a demonstration at Sergels Torg, Stockholm’s main public square, on September 15. Hundreds of protesters demanded the government’s resignation, and held a minute of silence for the slain mother and son, Carola and Emil Herlin. The organizers plan to hold similar protests every month throughout Sweden.
**Ingrid Carlqvist, a journalist and author based in Sweden, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone institute.
