HADAS MAMAN/J.Post/Iran’s policy in the Persian Gulf region – ‘charm’ offensive alongside terror/ Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed: Oil Revenue Addiction Produced Sloth
Iran’s policy in the Persian Gulf region – ‘charm’ offensive alongside terror By HADAS MAMAN/J.Post/08/25/2015
Iran’s post-nuclear deal behavior was evident in Bahrain and Kuwait two weeks after the nuclear accord was signed. Before the ink had even dried on comments made by Iranian officials regarding the recent Gulf-Iranian dialogue, Kuwaiti authorities made the announcement that they had intercepted a Hezbollah-linked terrorist cell that had transported weapons into the country via Iran. And at the same time that Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif was speaking regarding his vision for relations with Tehran’s Gulf neighbors, Bahrain announced the results of investigations into an attack in Sitra which killed two policemen and wounded six: it had arrested five individuals who received financing and training from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah in Iraq and have been linked to a number of terrorist incidents in Bahrain over recent years.
There is nothing new in Tehran’s foreign policy. These two terrorist incidents are certainly not the first that have been directed at Gulf countries by Iran and its proxies in the region. However, both coincided with warm calls from the Iranian administration for dialogue with its Gulf neighbors, and clearly display the huge difference between concrete realities and action on the one hand and mere words on the other. For example, Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif called during his last visit in Kuwait for dialogue and urged Gulf Arab countries to join forces with Tehran to fight against extremism and militancy in the Middle East.
Simultaneously, in a televised speech last month, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would continue to support its regional friends despite its recent nuclear deal with world powers, including “the oppressed Palestinian nation, Yemen, Syria, Iraq [and] Bahrain.”In between, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said during his visit to Kurdistan province last month: “Iran protects Erbil and Baghdad the same as it protects Iranian Kurdistan.” “Without Iran’s help Erbil and Baghdad would be in the hands of terrorist groups right now. The way we protect Sanandaj we also protect Sulaimani and Duhok,” he said. Even while fighting Islamic State (IS) Iran had a hand in the establishment of the “Popular Mobilization Units” in Iraq, supplies weapons, money and training to the Shi’ite Houthi militia in Yemen and to Hezbollah in Lebanon and keeps interfering in the internal affairs of its Gulf neighbors and continuing its destabilizing activities in the region.
And all this is simply part of Iran’s push to achieve one of its most prized strategic objectives: to establish a bridge between itself and the Mediterranean via Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia via Syria and Lebanon. Iran will fight tooth and nail to achieve this goal; there’s no harm in attempting dialogue with the Gulf states as a PR move to cover up these efforts. Iran’s regime is attempting to use this latest charm offensive as a card to play in front of the international community and as a means to cover up other aggressive actions.
These actions can only be explained as evidence of Iranian political and geographical ambition along with a desire to interfere in the affairs of neighboring states in the Arabian Gulf. Tehran is trying to further extend its influence across the region and exploit the momentum it has gained from the nuclear deal with Western powers.
Now that it has secured its control over Baghdad, Beirut, Gaza, Sana’a and Damascus, Iran has its eyes on other countries, and Hezbollah is evidently nothing but a means to an end. Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab states have historically had a hostile relationship, mainly due to ideological differences. Iran’s recent nuclear agreement with six world powers further exacerbated the tensions as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) thinks that the deal would provide Tehran more resources to support Shi’ite groups and cause sectarian rife across the region. The GCC states fear the Iran nuclear deal will give Iran the legitimacy and the cash to transform from a pariah state to an emboldened actor with a free hand to expand its ongoing aid to its proxies.
At the beginning of the month, in an article titled, “A Prudent Enemy Is Better than An Imprudent One” in the Kuwaiti government daily Al-Watan, columnist Abdallah Hadlaq wrote that the real enemy of the Gulf states is not Israel, whom he called “a friendly country.” In another article, published Sunday, August 16, Hadlaq called for the arming of Iranian minority groups to confront the Iranian regime. Hadlaq said Arab nations needed to bring their confrontation with their powerful Persian neighbor to the north “into their own home, financing and arming non-Persian ethnic groups, such as the Arab minority in southeastern Ahvaz, the Baluchi, Iranian Turkmen, Iranian Armenians and Iranian Azerbaijanis.
He called on these groups to rise up and overthrow what he called the “fascist” regime in Tehran. For reconciliation and dialogue between the Sunni Gulf Arab states and Iran to materialize, Iranians have to abandon interventionist and sectarian policies once and for all. If Iran is truly to win over its neighbors, it will need to undertake monumental efforts both on its own and with others in the region to put out the flames it has started all over the Middle East.
**The author is a Middle East and Arab media researcher.
Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed: Saudi Arabia Must Stop Relying On Easy Oil Money And Promote Educational, Economic Reforms To Diversify Its Sources Of Income
MEMRI/August 25/15
In light of the drop in oil prices worldwide, and the reports on the adverse effects this has had on the Saudi economy,[1] former Al-Sharq Al-Awsat editor ‘Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed wrote an article in which he criticized Saudi Arabia for relying too heavily on its oil revenues. Al-Rashed argued that the easy income from oil has encouraged the Saudi authorities to maintain “slothful habits” such as blanket subsidies for uncompetitive enterprises and substandard education that produces “unproductive graduates.” However, since Saudi oil will eventually run out, he said, Saudi Arabia must overcome this “addiction” to oil revenues and start developing alternative sources of income. To this end, he called for reforming the Saudi education system to produce a generation of productive and creative minds, which are currently in short supply, and also for optimizing the services and growth of the state’s institutions. If Saudi Arabia fails to do this, he warned, five million students may become a burden on their families. He stated that the oil price crisis may actually be a blessing in disguise for the kingdom if it prompts the Saudis to wake up and address the problem.
The following is the article as it was published in English on the Al-Arabiya website.[2]”
Oil Revenue Addiction Produced Sloth
“A difficult financial phase is looming. Oil prices have fallen by more than half, and may continue to fall in the future. This is not the first time – Saudi Arabia witnessed the $12-barrel crisis in 1986 and endured the following unfruitful years. “Although we have known for decades that oil revenue will one day come to an end [and] we are still hoping to develop alternative revenue sources, it [seems] inconceivable [that this will happen] in the near future. Dependence on oil revenue kept rising with each new budget, until we got tired and stopped thinking about addressing our petroleum addiction. With high oil prices, resources management was easy for bureaucrats.
The government’s [only] task was to distribute the expected proceeds from oil and its derivatives to hospitals, education, commerce, and the import of livestock and wheat. It subsidized cement, iron, gasoline, soft drinks, textbooks and sports clubs. It also handed out stipends for university students. As long as there are oil buyers, bureaucrats do not need to overwork themselves; it is just an accounting issue. However, similarly to addicts, these doses will not be enough for them one day.
“Spending on good education will engender productive men and women, and contribute to national resources. Unproductive graduates drain the country’s resources. Money is supposed to be invested in building viable industries after the fall of oil resources. However, the majority of industries get subsidized electricity, water and fuel. They are all managed by cheap imported workforces, and the owners will close shop after government aid stops.
“With low oil prices, the country will not be able to afford foreign workers and drivers. This is a positive result because most of the richest and most-advanced countries do not have our slothful habits.”
With Good Creative Management The Problems Can Be Tackled
“The real challenge facing the government is bigger than that; it must find additional financial resources. It will require the government to appoint creative minds. It will also [require] good management that is able to [work] miracles, reduce costs and explore additional resources. The country has a promising future as the banks are full of people and companies’ funds. However, they do not know how to invest their money.
“Regardless of the oil-revenue decrease, we are optimistic about the government’s reserves and [about] private financial resources. Nevertheless, it is a tough mission. Without education reform and orientation toward productive activities, 5 million students will become a burden on their families. If we do not prompt changes in state institutions, optimize their services and manage their growth, this big elephant – bureaucratic government – will remain tired and drained for a long time. The drop in oil revenues is not so bad because we need a shock to wake up and see the world around us. We should anticipate the biggest shock and correct our track. This is the right time to do so.”
Endnotes:
[1] According to reports, the Saudis have had to use cash reserves and even borrow to compensate for the budgetary shortfall (Ft.com, July 12, 2015). Furthermore, this past year two major rating agencies cut the kingdom’s credit rating outlook (Bloomberg.com, February 9, 2015; Reuters.com, August 23, 2015). [2] English.alarabiya.net, August 21, 2015. The original English has been lightly edited for clarity. The Arabic version of the article was published in Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), August 21, 2015.
