Who has the upper hand in the Iranian nuclear talks?
Tuesday, 7 July 2015
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard/Al Arabiya
Many deadlines have passed. Winter has come and gone and the summer is now at its peak. Administrations have changed and yet the Iran nuclear talks are ongoing. The skin of these talks is filled with stretch-marks, stretched to its maximum and ready to break under the pressure. The last deadline for reaching the comprehensive accord – as it was agreed in Lausanne on April 2 – was June 30 but the talks were extended till July 7. All parties are finding it difficult to make the tough decision U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to the press on Sunday July 5: “At this point negotiations could go either way… If hard choices get made in the next couple of days and made quickly, we could get an agreement this week. But if they are not made, we will not.”
Hints of progress
Secretary Kerry’s short statement, plus Iran’s top negotiator Abbas Araghchi’s live interview with Iran State TV channel on Saturday about of his hope coming back to Iran successful, gives the hint of progress regardless of the apparent difficult issues. It’s not clear what the difficult issues are which have been making progress slow. Some speculate that is related to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) remaining questions such as its request for military sites inspections and interviewing nuclear scientists. But an Iranian official told to a group of journalists off the record that all the issues related to the IAEA have been prepared for implementation. Many deadlines have passed yet the Iran nuclear talks are ongoing. According to my sources, another issue which is under discussion is related to the arms embargo which the United Sates apparently doesn’t consider to be related to nuclear sanctions. A senior Iranian official mentioned the arms embargo subject as one of the important issues being hashed out in Vienna. Iran believes that the two subjects are linked.
If Iran and the Western powers strike the nuclear agreement by Thursday July 9, the United Nations Security Council will hold a meeting to pass a resolution lifting the sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program soon after that. July 9 has been set by the U.S. Congress as a deadline to receive the possible nuclear agreement in order for it to be reviewed by within 30 days. Iran may have hopes that during that month, the U.N. Security Council will lift sanctions along with the EU.
Aiming high
While this agreement is quite important for Iranians in many different ways, the negotiators like to aim high before the last deadline comes on July 9. Behind closed doors, Iran and the U.S. are engaged in one of the most difficult negotiations since the revolution, however this time it’s far more formal. Kerry reiterated Sunday that the United States remains willing to walk away if Iran doesn’t budge on key points and a senior Iranian official also said that they do not see any definite deadline for their work in Vienna. “Even with our understanding of the U.S. position, even if we pass July 9 is not the end of the world,” a senior Iranian official told reporters in Vienna on condition of anonymity. Now it seems everything is up to the other members of the P5+1 which can act as a mediator in the run up to the deadline.
Does Iran want a destabilized Jordan?
Tuesday, 7 July 2015
Raed Omari/Al Arabia
I don’t think I am exaggerating when I say that most Jordanians were not that shocked to read about the foiled terror plot by the reportedly Iranian-backed Bayt al-Maqdis. There was, and still is, distress in Jordan after the case was unveiled in Al Rai newspaper not because of Iran’s involvement but because it was a planned terror plot. Like almost all Arabs, Jordanians are suspicious of Tehran’s supposed colonial and unfriendly intentions against their security-concerned country.
Just as it denied sending military advisors to Yemen, Iran will deny any affiliation with the suspect in the planned terror plot in Jordan. Jordan’s State Security Court issued a ruling a day after the terror plot was unveiled, banning the publication of news reports related to the case, first of all because this might affect the investigation and, more importantly I think, because the incident is politically such a big issue. In fact, Jordan’s largest daily, Al Rai, quoted a well-informed source as saying that 45 kilograms of explosives were found in the suspect’s possession. If true, “this is the most serious case in a decade in terms of the quantity of explosives discovered and their quality,” said the source, adding that the suspect was found to be in possession of large amounts of explosives and was arrested in northern Jordan. As a purely criminal case, the suspect’s name “Khaled al-Rubaie” is so far the only information that has been made available to local press.
Averted terror plot.
Aside from the rather dry judicial proceedings, much can be said about the averted terror plot. First and foremost, Iran’s interference and plotting – always shaped in military terms – is, in the minds of many, strongly felt in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. Many observe that Jordan is a target for Tehran. Geopolitically speaking, Jordan constitutes a barricade that has for a long time reportedly been thwarting Iranian attempts to secure a foothold within the Levant region on its way to the Arab Peninsula. Iran is present in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon but never in Jordan which is the missing element in the envisioned “Shiite Crescent.”After all the “benign” Iranian attempts to drag Jordan into its domain of influence, which took the form of economic temptations to the kingdom, Tehran has seemingly become more aggressive toward Jordan. Once in promises of natural gas provision and pledges of enhanced economic cooperation, Iran sought to heave Jordan from its historic alliances with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But Iran failed simply because Jordan is politically, strategically and for many other factors unwilling and unable to give up its alliance with Riyadh and Cairo. It is simply because Jordan is an Arab country.
Iranian influence.
It seems that wherever Iranian influence is preset, strife and conflict usually follow or worsen. I am not only citing the foiled terror plot but also Tehran’s relentless efforts to secure an influential presence on Syria’s southern front on the border with Jordan. I believe that implementing the Iranian agenda always required instability and chaos on the path toward full control. In a miracle-like achievement, Jordan has succeeded in safeguarding its security, thus preventing the penetration of Iran and also the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) – both of which have active in conflict hotbeds and in regions plagued by instability. In other words, it could be that Iran had really plotted to strike Jordan using its affiliated groups in the region. Just as it denied sending military advisors to Yemen, Iran will deny any affiliation with the suspect in the planned terror plot in Jordan. But it is all in vain. The anti-Iranian rhetoric is increasing day by day within the Arab region that is, at least in my view, nearing a full consensus over Tehran being an unfriendly neighbor.
