English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 17/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
John beheaded/Herodias's daughter Salome asked Herod to give her on a platter
John the Baptist's Head & He did what she asked for
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
14/01-12./:"At that time Herod the ruler heard reports about Jesus; and he said
to his servants, ‘This is John the Baptist; he has been raised from the dead,
and for this reason these powers are at work in him.’For Herod had arrested
John, bound him, and put him in prison on account of Herodias, his brother
Philip’s wife, because John had been telling him, ‘It is not lawful for you to
have her.’Though Herod wanted to put him to death, he feared the crowd, because
they regarded him as a prophet. But when Herod’s birthday came, the daughter of
Herodias danced before the company, and she pleased Herod so much that he
promised on oath to grant her whatever she might ask. Prompted by her mother,
she said, ‘Give me the head of John the Baptist here on a platter.’ The king was
grieved, yet out of regard for his oaths and for the guests, he commanded it to
be given; he sent and had John beheaded in the prison. The head was brought on a
platter and given to the girl, who brought it to her mother. His disciples came
and took the body and buried it; then they went and told Jesus.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 16-17/2025
Video Interview link, with writer and director Youssef Y. El
Khoury
Aoun invited
to visit Qatar and Jordan, urges pressure on Israel over Gaza deal
Jeffers says Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon on a 'very positive path'
Spain pledges 10 million euros for Lebanon army
Salam reportedly seeks dialogue with Hezbollah and Amal
Salam continues consultations, vows 'understanding' with Shiite Duo
Fayyad says problem in 'evasion of understandings', not in Salam
Bitar charges 10 new suspects and summons Gracia Azzi and Asaad Tufaili
Middle East
geopolitical shifts offer Lebanon chance to control its own fate
Violence Persists in Southern Lebanon
UN Security Council Urges Rapid Formation of Lebanon Government
UN Chief Antonio Guterres in Lebanon on 'Solidarity Visit'
Macron and Bin Salman Pledge 'Full Support' for Forming a Strong Lebanese
Casualties from stray bullets as celebrations erupt in Lebanon over Gaza truce
Arab, International Momentum to Support Lebanon Kicks Off with Macron’s Visit
France: Committed to Supporting the Rise of a New Lebanon
Celebrations Erupt in Lebanon over Gaza Ceasefire
The Winds of October 17 are Blowing
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 16-17/2025
Senior Hamas leader denies Israel claim
group backtracking on ceasefire
Behind the Gaza deal: a US odd couple and last-minute snags
73 killed in Israeli strikes since ceasefire deal announced
Netanyahu says Cabinet won't meet over ceasefire until Hamas drops new demands
Former HTS fighter Ahmad Hammad al Mansour reportedly detained in Syria after
threatening Egyptian president
Israel Fired at Vehicles Belonging to Syria's New Military, Killing 3
Netanyahu: Cabinet Won't Meet Over Ceasefire Until Hamas Drops New Demands
Death Toll in Israeli Strikes on Gaza Rises to 77 since Ceasefire Deal
Grundberg Hopes ‘Gaza Truce’ Will Revive the Peace Process in Yemen
Khamenei hails Gaza ceasefire as 'victory' for Palestinians
Iran-backed militia will suspend operations against Israel, its leader says
Syria's Foreign Minister Calls for Lifting of Sanctions
Leaders from rival Kurdish groups look to mend ties during Syria upheaval
Will Egypt Request Extradition of Ahmad Mansour?
Erdogan Warns Israel Over Repercussions of Attacks on Syria
Iraq wants Iran-backed factions to lay down weapons, foreign minister says
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on January 16-17/2025
The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of
Resistance/Edmund Fitton-Brown/FDD's Long War Journal/January 16/2025
Turkey and HTS: A New Era of Extremism in Syria?/Sinan Ciddi & Sophia Epley/1945
web siteJanuary 16/2025
Is Trump Caving to China on TikTok?/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/January
16, 2025
The Struggle Between ‘Delete’ and Screenshot May Have Become the Final ‘Fateful
Battle’/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
AMCD supports America First policies toward the Islamic regime in Iran/Kenneth
R. Timmerman/AMCD/January 16, 2025
The Perception Game In Syria/Amb. Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/January 16/2025
Saudi Arabia at the forefront of region’s sustainable development/Dr. Majid
Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 16, 2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 16-17/2025
Video Interview link, with writer and director Youssef Y. El
Khoury
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139157/
January 16/2025
In his Interview, Lebanese writer and director Youssef Y. El Khoury provided a
sovereign and independence-driven analysis of Lebanon's current reality, imposed
by the international community under Chapter VII without formal declaration. He
clarified that MPs did not freely elect Joseph Aoun but were instead coerced
into endorsing his candidacy. El Khoury asserted that Lebanon is now advancing
towards the Abraham Accords. He declared that Hezbollah has been shattered,
defeated in the war, and left South Lebanon in ruins, warranting full
accountability and a ban on its political involvement. He further demanded the
removal and prosecution of the corrupt political class, emphasizing that the
South's reconstruction will remain on hold until Hezbollah’s status is resolved.
Conspicuously absent from the presidential inaugural speech was the issue of
Lebanese citizens who sought refuge in Israel.
Aoun invited to
visit Qatar and Jordan, urges pressure on Israel over Gaza deal
Naharnet/January
16/2025
President Joseph Aoun on Thursday received invitations to visit Qatar and
Jordan, as he met separately in Baabda with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi
and Qatari Ambassador to Lebanon Sheikh Saud bin Abdul Rahman Al-Thani.The
Qatari envoy handed Aoun a letter from Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad that
included an invitation to visit Doha to discuss “issues of common interest and
means to boost and strengthen the firm brotherly ties between our two countries
in all fields.”The visiting Jordanian minister meanwhile handed Aoun a letter
from Jordanian King Abdullah II that also included an invitation to visit Amman.
Separately, Aoun welcomed the Gaza ceasefire announcement, noting that “serious
commitment by Israel to the agreement’s terms requires a follow-up by the
sponsoring countries and the U.N., because the Israeli enemy has made us used to
the evasion of its commitments and disavowal of international
resolutions.”“Perhaps the attacks and ceasefire violations that are happening in
south Lebanon are the biggest proof of this,” Aoun added.
Jeffers says Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon on a 'very
positive path'
Naharnet/January 16/2025
U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers, the Chairman of the Cessation of Hostilities
Implementation “Mechanism”, joined by French Brigadier General Guillaume Ponchin,
have accompanied Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) officers today to visit LAF
checkpoints in south-west Lebanon, the U.S. Embassy said.
LAF 5th Brigade assumed full control of this area last week immediately after
Israeli forces withdrew. Soldiers in 5th Brigade are now “in the process of
making roads and villages safe for residents to return home,” the Embassy said
in a statement. Jeffers and Ponchin visited seven LAF checkpoints where the
group observed Lebanese soldiers “monitoring roadways to provide security and
prevent the movement of unauthorized armed groups in accordance with the
Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed November 26, 2024,” the statement
said. They also witnessed reconstruction efforts and a LAF engineer team
detonating some of the 31 rockets (107 mm) discovered in Shamaa on Wednesday
morning. Jeffers commented: “LAF checkpoints and patrols operate effectively
throughout south-west Lebanon, and the soldiers are dedicated to their mission
as Lebanon’s sole security guarantors. Their presence created a sense of
security and stability which will be important for the civilians who will soon
resume normal activities in the area.”“We are on a very positive path to
continue the withdrawal of the IDF (Israeli army) as planned, and the LAF is
providing for the security and stability of Lebanon,” Jeffers added.
Spain pledges 10 million euros for Lebanon army
Agence France Presse/January 16/2025
Spain's top diplomat has announced a €10 million aid package for Lebanon's army,
in a boost for the armed forces who have a crucial role in implementing a
fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. "This announcement of 10 million euros for
the United Nations Development Program" will contribute to "supplement the
salaries of the Lebanese Armed Forces" as well as finance "solar panels and
logistical aspects" of the army, Jose Manuel Albares said Wednesday during a
visit to Beirut. Lebanon has struggled for years to finance its public
institutions including the army following a 2019 economic crisis. It now also
faces the challenge of rebuilding the country after more than two months of war
between Hezbollah and Israel that the group had initiated over the Gaza conflict
and ended in November. "Aid for... the reconstruction especially of south of
Lebanon, will be necessary to stabilize the country," Albares told reporters
after meeting Lebanon's new president, former army chief Joseph Aoun. Spain has
contributed more than 650 personnel to the U.N. peacekeeping force in the
country's south (UNIFIL) with force chief Aroldo Lazaro hailing from Spain. A
committee composed of Israeli, Lebanese, French and U.S. delegates, alongside a
representative from UNIFIL, has been tasked with monitoring the implementation
of the ceasefire deal.On Wednesday, the U.S. army official on the committee said
the Israeli army was on a "very positive path" to withdraw from Lebanon's south
ahead of the deadline for implementing the truce later this month. Lebanese army
"checkpoints and patrols operate effectively throughout south-west Lebanon, and
the soldiers are dedicated to their mission as Lebanon's sole security
guarantors," said Major General Jasper Jeffers during a visit to the
checkpoints. "We are on a very positive path to continue the withdrawal of the
IDF as planned, and the LAF is providing for the security and stability of
Lebanon," he added. Under the November 27 ceasefire accord, the Lebanese army
has 60 days to deploy alongside U.N. peacekeepers in the south of Lebanon as the
Israeli army withdraws. At the same time, Hezbollah is required to pull its
forces north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers from the border, and
dismantle any remaining military infrastructure it has in the country's south.
Salam reportedly seeks dialogue with Hezbollah and Amal
Naharnet/January 16/2025
Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam is sseking “direct communication channels”
with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement and has been quoted as saying that he wants
“a direct dialogue over all matters,” the pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper
reported on Thursday. The two parties “do not intend to boycott Salam or his
government, regardless of any agreements that might be reached,” the daily
quoted informed sources as saying. “We have moved from a boycott decision to
dialogue, because everyone, including (President Joseph) Aoun and Salam know
that a non-participation of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement would not only lead
to a governmental crisis, but also to a governance crisis, something that the
president and the PM-designate do not want,” al-Akhbar quoted prominent sources
as saying. The sources added that Salam is inclined to form a “techno-political
government.”
Salam continues consultations, vows 'understanding' with
Shiite Duo
Naharnet/January 16/2025
Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam kicked off Thursday the second day of
non-binding consultations with lawmakers over the formation of the new
government. He is expected to deliver a speech after the consultations.
“We have elected a president and are forming a government under (Israeli) fire
and this is considered deliberate. Let the prime minister be vigilant,” MP Jamil
al-Sayyed said after meeting Salam.
“Balance is needed, quotas are rejected and I have asked PM-designate Salam that
security and the judiciary don’t be under the control of any camp,” al-Sayyed
added. MP Osama Saad for his part said “we are before a precious opportunity to
achieve a peaceful, secure and constitutional transition to a national, civil,
just and modern state.”“The government must guarantee national consensus over
Lebanon’s sensitive issues, such as the defense policy, the foreign policy and
other files, and here lies the importance of what is being said about respect
for the National Pact,” Saad added. “After achieving full Zionist withdrawal
from Lebanese territory, Lebanon must get rid of the (ceasefire) agreement that
is shameful to its national security, and its government must devise a national
alternative for our national security. The government and all the loyal forces
must also foil the enemy’s efforts to establish strategic gains for it in
Lebanon,” Saad went on to say. MP Jihad al-Samad meanwhile quoted Salam as
telling him: “In the face of the current dispute, there are only two solutions:
‘reaching an understanding or reaching an understanding.’"MP Paula Yacoubian
meanwhile stressed that foreign forces had wanted the return of Najib Mikati as
premier and not the designation of Salam. "A political leader called the
president of a European country, suggesting splitting the votes of his bloc
between Mikati and Salam due to the popular pressure he was under," Yacoubian
revealed, noting that efforts by the Change MPs and popular pressure were behind
Salam's nomination. Yacoubian also noted that the U.S. had a "veto" on Salam due
to his anti-Israel stance at the International Court of Justice. MP Ibrahim
Mneimneh for his part said he wants "all components to be represented in the
government, but without possessing the ability to obstruct its work."Hezbollah
and the Amal Movement had boycotted the first day of consultations on Wednesday.
MP Qassem Hashem of Amal’s Development and Liberation bloc said the boycott does
not mean that the two parties will not take part in the government. Hezbollah
and Amal have objected against the manner in which Salam was named premier on
Monday, accusing unnamed parties of not honoring an alleged agreement for the
re-appointment of Najib Mikati as premier. Both parties had voted for President
Joseph Aoun in Thursday’s presidential election session, after reports said that
they received “guarantees” regarding several issues. “PM-designate Salam is
showing openness and does not have an intention to exclude anyone,” Deputy
Speaker Elias Bou Saab said after meeting Salam at the beginning of the
parliamentary consultations on Wednesday. MP Waddah al-Sadek of the Change bloc
meanwhile stressed that “no state has interfered in the elections and
consultations and those saying that are lying.”The head of the Democratic
Gathering MP Taymour Jumblat -- whose bloc’s votes were crucial for Salam’s
appointment -- stressed "the need to communicate with everyone and launch a
dialogue with everyone," emphasizing that "no one can eliminate the other."MP
Michel Mouawad of the Tajaddod bloc meanwhile said that "the presence of
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement in the opposition does not mean that it is an
exclusion of Shiites.""We hope this government will contain the biggest number
of political blocs, and it would be better if everyone joins it, so that it
carries out a national reconciliation," Mouawad added, after his talks with
Salam. Salam said Tuesday that he will not marginalize any side in Lebanon, an
apparent reference to Hezbollah, which in past years opposed his appointment as
prime minister and this year indicated its preference for another candidate."I'm
not an advocate of exclusion but rather unity and my hands are extended to
everyone so that no citizen feels marginalized," Salam stressed. Salam, who has
served as the head of the International Court of Justice, said that he will work
on spreading the state’s authority on all parts of the country. Over the past
years, Hezbollah and its allies have blocked Salam from becoming prime minister,
casting him as a U.S.-backed candidate.
Fayyad says problem in 'evasion of understandings', not in
Salam
Naharnet/January
16/2025
MP Ali Fayyad of Hezbollah’s bloc claimed Thursday that some forces did not
honor understandings that allegedly preceded the election of Joseph Aoun as
president. “The sudden evasion of these understandings contradicts with all the
declared stances and positive reassurances, reflecting actions based on the
‘victors and losers approach’, the change of balances and dealing with the
Shiite component as if it is in state of defeat,” Fayyad said. “This is what we
cannot accept or surrender to, but will rather reject and confront, and we will
not accept that it be turned into a de facto situation,” Fayyad added. He noted
that the issue is not “exclusively” related to the PM-designate’s identity,
noting that Hezbollah “knows very well” Nawaf Salam’s “Arabist past, his support
for the Palestinian cause and his hostility to the Zionist entity.”“We
appreciate his exceptional role in trying (Israeli PM Benjamin) Netanyahu and
the other enemy leaders at the International Court of Justice in The Hague,”
Fayyad said.He added: “With all due honesty we say that what is happening puts
the country at a crossroads, so that the course of reform and stability does not
get threatened by miscalculations and bad intentions.”“The golden rule that no
one should forget is that consensus, understanding, dialogue and cooperation
must be the basis of the new stage as to the state’s rise, the building of its
institutions, the preservation of its sovereignty and the extension of its
authority,” Fayyad said.
Bitar charges 10 new suspects and summons Gracia Azzi and
Asaad Tufaili
Naharnet/January 16/2025
The lead judicial investigator in the Beirut port blast case, Judge Tarek al-Bitar
on Thursday charged 10 new suspects in the case, who include port employees and
current and former security officials, Al-Jadeed TV said. The TV network
identified the suspects as port employees Marwan Kaaki and Mohammad Qassabiyeh,
the security official in charge of Hangar 12 Rabih Srour, Customs chief Brig.
Gen. Raymond Khoury, Customs officer Brig. Gen. Adel Francis, General Security
officer Brig. Gen. Najm al-Ahmadiyeh, former General Security officers Munah
Sawaya and Mohammad Hassan Mouqalled, Lebanese Army brig. gen. Marwan Eid and
former army intelligence chief brig. gen. Edmond Fadel. Bitar also scheduled
interrogation sessions for Higher Customs Council member Gracia Azzi and former
Higher Customs Council chief Brig. Gen. Asaad Tufaili, Al-Jadeed added. "The
interrogation sessions will begin on February 7 and will be held over three
phases during the months of March and April prior to the issuance of the
indictment," Al-Jadeed said. Bitar’s resumption of his investigations "had been
decided on September 18 and was postponed due to the Israeli aggression and is
not linked to the political transformations,” al-Jadeed has reported. Legal
sources have told al-Jadeed that they expect the suspects not to attend the
interrogation sessions, speaking of “confusion at the Justice Palace in Beirut.”
According to media reports, a meeting was held days ago at the office of Higher
Judicial Council chief Judge Suheil Abboud, in the presence of Bitar and State
Prosecutor Jamal al-Hajjar, which tackled the case and the mechanism for
summoning suspects to interrogation, ending in “the two parties’ (Bitar and
Hajjar) insistence on their stances.”The reports added that Bitar has decided to
rely on judicial clerks in sending out the subpoenas rather on security
agencies, which are under the authority of Hajjar. Hajjar has refused to
cooperate with Bitar, citing the “usurpation of power” lawsuit filed by Oueidat
against the lead judge.Bitar had postponed all interrogations in June 2023 due
to the "lack of cooperation" from the prosecutor's office, without setting new
dates. "There are charges accusing me of usurping power that must be resolved,"
he said. If these charges "are proven, then I must be held to account, and if
the contrary happens, then I must continue the investigation," Bitar argued at
the time. One of history's biggest non-nuclear explosions, the blast on August
4, 2020 destroyed much of Beirut port and surrounding areas, killing more than
215 people and injuring over 6,500.Authorities said the mega-explosion was
caused by a fire in a portside warehouse where a vast stockpile of the
industrial chemical ammonium nitrate had been haphazardly stored for years.
Middle East
geopolitical shifts offer Lebanon chance to control its own fate
Dalal Saoud/BEIRUT, Lebanon, Jan. 16 (UPI) /January 16, 2025
Recent geopolitical shifts in the troubled Middle East, highlighted by the
overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iran's dwindling influence,
present a rare opportunity for Lebanon to emerge from 50 years of lawlessness
and regain control of its own fate.
In just five days, Lebanon's political scene turned upside down: Army commander
Gen. Joseph Aoun was elected president Jan. 9 after 26 months of presidential
vacuum. On Monday, Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice,
was named the new prime minister.
The Aoun-Salam combination took everyone by surprise. It was not what the Shiite
allies, Iran-backed Hezbollah and the Amal Movement led by House Speaker Nabih
Berri wanted or even expected. Faced by the fait accompli, they reacted with
dismay and anger, saying there was an attempt to exclude them.
The Shiite duo voted for Aoun reportedly as part of a deal under which incumbent
Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whom they support, was to be named again as prime
minister. Their ability to impose their will on the country's other political
components has clearly diminished after the once-powerful Hezbollah emerged weak
from 14 months of a destructive war with Israel. Aoun and Salam, known for their
integrity, clean hands and trusted personalities with successful records,
revived new hopes for crises-ridden and corruption-plagued Lebanon.
The parliament's selection of Salam as prime minister, who was opposed by
Hezbollah and incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's team, "is another political
earthquake" that occurred after the "landmark election" of Aoun as president,
Firas Maksad, senior fellow and director of strategic outreach at the
Washington-based Middle East Institute, wrote in a post on LinkedIn.
To Najat Saliba, who was among 84 legislators in the 128-member parliament who
named Salam to the prime minister post, it was "the will of the people calling
for reform" that won this time. Saliba explained that it was "a cumulative
effort by so many people" boosted by "a snowball effect" once Salam was
suggested as a candidate at the last minute. "The stars were aligning,' she told
UPI, citing the collapse of the Assad regime, the weakening of Iran and its
proxies, and the fresh interest of the international community in Lebanon as
factors that led to the huge change in the country.
But what really made "this breakthrough" was the will of the people, who did not
want Mikati back in power and supported change and reform, she maintained. This
is what Hezbollah and Amal failed to capture, thinking they can carry on with
"business as usual" despite the shift in the Middle East balance of power. The
Shiite duo, however, is left with only two options: either to accept the new
reality and join the new cabinet or to stay out at the risk of further losing
its political influence, according to observers. Lebanon under Aoun and Salam is
to adopt financial and political reforms, as well as handle the reconstruction
of large parts of Beirut's southern suburbs and eastern and southern Lebanon,
which were badly damaged during the Hezbollah-Israel war. Without having a
Hezbollah-Amal blessing and consent, that would be hard to achieve.
The new president and prime minister tried to assure both groups, which widely
represent the Shiite community, stressing that there was no intention to exclude
them from the new process in the country.
But the most pressing issue and main assuring element is to secure Israel's full
withdrawal from southern Lebanon by Jan, 27 in line with the U.S.-brokered
cease-fire agreement that ended the Hezbollah-Israel war last November.
"The best and only way to get the Israelis out is for Lebanon to fully implement
its part of this accord," Sami Nader, Middle Eastern affairs analyst and
director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, told UPI.
Lebanon, Nader said, will have to "prove to the world and provide the evidence
that its army is the only force present in the south."
Under the Nov. 27 cease-fire deal, Hezbollah should withdraw to south of the
Litani River, and Israel should pull out its troops completely so that the
Lebanese Army takes control of the border area. Hezbollah, moreover, would not
be allowed to rebuild its military infrastructure. While it agreed to relinquish
its weapons in southern Lebanon, the Iran-backed militant group strongly rejects
an Israeli condition to be fully disarmed. Only a full Israeli withdrawal from
south Lebanon would eventually convince Hezbollah to drop arms as part of a new
"defense strategy" that President Aoun pledged to implement.
Such a strategy would enable the Lebanese authorities to end Israel's occupation
of parts of south Lebanon and "deter its aggression." The Lebanese Army would
then become the only armed force in the country. "It is not going to be easy,
but the new president is known for his integrity, competence, courage and
boldness," Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former army general who
knows Aoun personally, told UPI. Hezbollah, Jaber said, is "obliged to change
and accept a comprehensive national strategy whereby its fighters could regroup
as paramilitary forces within the Lebanese Army."Rebuilding a just state and a
modern economy, adopting a policy of "positive neutrality," fighting widespread
corruption, "mafias," drug smuggling and money-laundering, reactivating the
judiciary and introducing necessary reforms were some of the promises Aoun and
Salam made.
"There is a chance [to fulfill these promises] because the major impediment for
state building was the great influence Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, had on the
ground and on the Lebanese institutions," Nader said. He explained that the
momentum created by the geopolitical shits in the region "offers an opportunity"
for Lebanon to "return to the state, return to the constitution and return to
the Arab family and the international community, as well.""This road to real
sovereign state and good governance cannot be done overnight, with a magic
stick," he cautioned, expecting "some real difficulties in passing radical
reforms, forming governance and getting out of the prevailing quota system."
Lebanon has been facing a deep, compounded crisis since October 2019 that
resulted in soaring poverty and unemployment, with the Lebanese pound losing 90%
of its value and bank depositors stripped of their savings. The country's
financial collapse was due to decades of corruption and mismanagement by the
ruling elite.
Violence
Persists in Southern Lebanon
This is Beirut/January 16/2025
The southern Lebanon border remains a hotspot of violence, just days before the
expiration of the ceasefire. In the Sadana area, south of the Shebaa farms, the
Red Cross was deployed on Thursday to recover the bodies of three young men
killed by Israeli forces a week ago. These farms, contested between Lebanon and
Israel, are often the site of violence. In addition, Israeli infantry forces
entered Maroun al-Ras (Bint Jbeil) and Taybeh, where a bulldozer demolished
residential areas. Explosions and gunfire were reported in the region. An
Israeli drone was seen flying over Beirut and its suburbs on Thursday morning.
Explosion of Seized Device in South Lebanon. An explosion reportedly shook a
military base in the Negev Desert, injuring several Israeli soldiers, according
to Israeli media reports.The incident occurred on Wednesday evening and led to
multiple injuries, with some soldiers reportedly in serious condition. The
explosion was caused by an explosive device, part of munitions confiscated
during military operations in southern Lebanon, which detonated while soldiers
were conducting training at the location. Official details regarding the
incident have not yet been released by Israeli authorities. The confiscation of
munitions in this area continues to be a contentious issue, with Israel alleging
that Hezbollah is storing weapons near the border.
Army Command Notice
The Lebanese army announced that it would carry out detonations of unexploded
ordnance between 10 AM and 6 PM in the fields of Yabsa in Rachaya, Qlayaa in
Marjeyoun, and Taybeh in Baalbeck, with some operations scheduled between noon
and 4 PM.
UN Security Council Urges Rapid Formation of Lebanon Government
This is Beirut/With AFP//January
16/2025
The UN Security Council called Thursday for Lebanese leaders to rapidly form a
new government, describing it as a "critical" step for stability in the
war-battered country and region. In a statement adopted unanimously, the Council
welcomed the January 9 election of President Joseph Aoun, who filled a role that
was vacant for over two years, and the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam,
urging the new Lebanese leaders to continue to "work constructively to promote
the country's stability" and "swiftly" form a government. "The Security Council
stresses that the formation of a government is critical for Lebanon's stability
and resilience to withstand regional and domestic challenges and encourages all
parties in Lebanon to demonstrate renewed unity to that end," the Council said.
It reaffirmed its "strong support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty,
and political independence of Lebanon," and called on all parties to respect a
ceasefire deal with Israel. In September, Israel ramped up a bombing campaign
and sent troops into Lebanon after almost a year of cross-border salvos with the
pro-Iran group Hezbollah. A fragile truce came into effect on November 27, but
the Council on Thursday expressed its "concerns" about reported violations of
the deal. The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon this month accused Israel of a
"flagrant violation" of the Security Council resolution which forms the basis of
the ceasefire.
UN Chief Antonio Guterres in Lebanon on 'Solidarity Visit'
This is Beirut/With AFP/January
16/2025
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres arrived in Lebanon Thursday on a
"solidarity visit". He was greeted at the airport by caretaker Foreign Minister
Abdallah Bou Habib. "The Secretary-General has just arrived in Beirut for a
solidarity visit to Lebanon," after a long-stalled presidential election and a
devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel, his deputy spokesman Farhan Haq
told a press briefing. Guterres would meet political officials and visit UN
peacekeepers in southern Lebanon during his trip which will last until Saturday,
Haq said. Lebanon's deeply divided political class last week finally elected a
new president, Joseph Aoun, after two years of deadlock. Aoun on Monday named
Nawal Salam, until recently the presiding judge at the International Court of
Justice in The Hague, to form a government. Guterres is visiting as the deadline
approaches for full implementation of a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel
in southern Lebanon. Under the November 27 truce, which ended two months of
all-out war between both sides, the Lebanese army is to deploy alongside UN
peacekeepers in the south as the Israeli army withdraws over a 60-day period,
which expires on January 26. Hezbollah is to withdraw its forces north of the
Litani River, some 30 kilometres (20 miles) from the border with Israel, and
dismantle any remaining military infrastructure in south Lebanon.
Macron and Bin Salman Pledge 'Full Support' for Forming a
Strong Lebanese
This is Beirut/With AFP/January
16/2025
French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have
pledged “full support” for the formation of a “strong government” in Lebanon,
the Élysée Palace announced on Thursday, following a phone call between the two
leaders. During the call on Wednesday, they stated that they would “fully
support the consultations led by Lebanon’s new authorities to appoint a strong
government capable of uniting the country’s diverse population, ensuring
adherence to the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and implementing
necessary reforms for the prosperity, stability and sovereignty of the country,”
the Élysée added. The election of President Joseph Aoun and the nomination of
Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam mark a “new era for Lebanon” and send a
“strong signal for the international community to reengage,” the leaders
emphasized, according to the statement. Macron and Bin Salman also expressed
“full support for the Lebanese Armed Forces” to enforce the ceasefire with
Israel in southern Lebanon. They discussed the next steps, including initiatives
to support reconstruction efforts. The French president, who has been deeply
involved in seeking solutions to Lebanon’s political, economic and financial
crises, will meet with the new officials in Beirut on Friday. Saudi Arabia had
significantly reduced its support for Lebanon in recent years due to the growing
influence of Hezbollah within the country. However, the Iran-backed group has
been significantly weakened by its military confrontation with Israel and the
fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria. This shift paved the way for
Lebanon's presidential election on January 9, which ended over two years of
deadlock.
Casualties from stray bullets as celebrations erupt in
Lebanon over Gaza truce
Associated Press/January 16/2025
Celebrations erupted in several areas in Lebanon following the announcement of
the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Many people flooded the
streets in Palestinian refugee camps, as well as cities like Sidon in the south,
Tripoli in the north and Beirut’s southern suburbs. People marched or rode
motorcycles, honking in celebration while waving Hamas flags. In some areas,
nonstop shooting and fireworks rang out. Images circulated on social media
showing several people wounded, with at least one killed, by stray bullets.
Hezbollah has strong ties to Hamas and had opened a support front on the day
after Hamas’ attack Oct. 7, 2023, on Israel. This led to a 14-month war between
Hezbollah and Israel, which ended with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on Nov. 27.
Hezbollah has not commented on the Gaza ceasefire.
Arab, International Momentum
to Support Lebanon Kicks Off with Macron’s Visit
Beirut: Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
The election of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and the designation of Prime
Minister-designate Nawaf Salam to form the first government of the new
presidential term have drawn unprecedented Arab and international attention.
This growing interest is reflected in a series of high-level visits, starting
with French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beirut on Friday.
While Spanish Foreign Minister and EU High Representative Josep Borrell
visited Lebanese officials on Wednesday, coinciding with similar meetings held
by Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, UN Secretary-General Antonio
Guterres is expected to arrive in Beirut on Saturday. Additionally, Arab and
international officials are set to visit the Lebanese capital starting next
week. In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington
Antoine Chedid stated that Lebanon “is of great importance to the region and the
world, and the changes happening in the country are part of broader regional
transformations.” “International interest in Lebanon
didn’t begin today. It became evident during the recent Israeli war, when the
United States, Saudi Arabia, and France played pivotal roles in achieving a
ceasefire,” he remarked.
Chedid further noted that Macron’s visit will mark the start of a series of
trips by international and Arab leaders expressing their firm support for
Lebanon’s state institutions, including its president, government, army, and
constitutional bodies. “We are witnessing an unprecedented phase of
international support for Lebanon’s presidency and state institutions,” he said.
“What matters now is for Lebanon to embrace this support positively.”Former
minister Rashid Derbas highlighted that international attention to Lebanon
“clearly indicates that the country has moved past its state of unrest and
security disruptions and is no longer a platform for undermining regional
stability.”Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Derbas said: “Macron’s visit, followed
by the arrival of Arab and global leaders, restores confidence among Lebanese
citizens. Electing a president and forming a government has reignited hope.”He
added: “This renewed openness paves the way for assisting Lebanon in investing
in stability, development, and conflict resolution, steering the country away
from chaos and disorder.”
Derbas stressed that certain factions, “particularly the Shiite duo, have failed
to recognize regional changes and shifting power dynamics, clinging instead to
rhetoric that clouds their judgment.”He criticized their rejection of past
opportunities, stating: “When the Shiite duo had strong leverage in choosing the
president and forming the government, they dismissed all proposals, squandering
opportunities until external forces imposed decisions on them.”Derbas expressed
hope for an end to the cycle of missed opportunities and constitutional
violations, which he said have “isolated Lebanon from its allies under the
pretext of sovereignty, while maintaining a rhetoric about liberating Palestine
and weakening Israel.”The decision by the Shiite duo (Amal Movement and
Hezbollah) to boycott non-binding consultations has cast a shadow over the
atmosphere as international and Arab officials prepare to visit Lebanon.
Political analyst Toufic Hindi warned that the duo’s choice to boycott
consultations “sends a discouraging message and does not align with the will of
the Lebanese people or the intentions of Lebanon’s Arab and international
allies.”Hindi praised Aoun’s inaugural speech, describing it as “a source of
hope for the Lebanese people and a signal of reassurance for the international
community.” Similarly, he commended Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam for
outlining a clear framework for state-building during his speech at the
presidential palace.
France: Committed to Supporting the Rise of a New Lebanon
Paris: Michel Abou Najm/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
French President Emmanuel Macron is set to deliver three key messages during his
upcoming visit to Lebanon on Friday, focusing on the nation’s sovereignty,
economic reform, and preservation of unity. This marks Macron’s third trip to
Lebanon following the 2020 Beirut port explosion, underscoring Paris’ ongoing
engagement with Lebanon during its political and economic crises.
Macron will arrive in Beirut accompanied by a small delegation, including
Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, special
envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, parliamentarians, and individuals with strong ties to
Lebanon. His agenda includes meetings with President
Joseph Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and
Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam. Discussions will also extend to UNIFIL
leaders and French and American officers overseeing the ceasefire monitoring
team, focusing on Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and expanding the
Lebanese army’s role in the region. According to Elysee sources, France
prioritizes Lebanon’s sovereignty, emphasizing the importance of empowering the
state to control its borders, reclaim its territory, and implement UN Resolution
1701. Paris views the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as central to this goal,
providing them with equipment, training, and logistical support. Macron is also
urging Israel and Hezbollah to adhere to commitments for Israel’s withdrawal
from southern Lebanon. The sources added that France’s approach extends to
engaging with regional actors. Barrot recently stressed to Syrian officials the
need to respect Lebanon’s sovereignty, prevent smuggling, and maintain regional
stability. These discussions echo themes raised during Mikati’s recent visit to
Syria, as Paris seeks to address cross-border issues that threaten Lebanon’s
security.
Macron’s visit also aims to address the role of Hezbollah within Lebanon. French
officials encourage the group to transition into a political entity, fully
integrating into the democratic process. They argue that Hezbollah’s declining
military capacity, exacerbated by regional changes such as the weakening of the
Assad regime, presents an opportunity for this transformation.
Macron’s previous engagements with Hezbollah during 2020 roundtable talks
emphasized disarmament and inclusion in Lebanon’s political framework. France
believes this shift is essential for restoring institutional functionality and
preserving Lebanon’s unity, the sources underlined.
Macron’s third focus is on Lebanon’s economic recovery. The sources at the
Elysee noted that France is advocating for structural reforms as a foundation
for rebuilding the economy, beginning with an agreement with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). Paris has made it clear that international aid depends on
Lebanon restoring global confidence through transparency, anti-corruption
measures, and economic restructuring. While French officials did not confirm
plans for an international conference to aid Lebanon, they indicated that Paris
is prepared to mobilize global support if reforms are implemented. France also
continues to coordinate closely with Saudi Arabia and the United States to
develop a shared vision for Lebanon’s recovery, the sources concluded.
Celebrations Erupt in Lebanon over Gaza Ceasefire
Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Celebrations erupted in several areas in Lebanon following the announcement of
the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Many people flooded the streets in Palestinian refugee camps, as well as cities
like Sidon in the south, Tripoli in the north and Beirut’s southern suburbs.
People marched or rode motorcycles, honking in celebration while waving Hamas
flags. In some areas, nonstop shooting and fireworks rang out. Images circulated
on social media showing several people wounded, with at least one killed, by
stray bullets. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has strong ties to Hamas
and had opened a support front on the day after Hamas’s attack Oct. 7, 2023, on
Israel. This led to a 14-month war between Hezbollah and Israel, which ended
with a US-brokered ceasefire on Nov. 27.Hezbollah has not commented on the Gaza
ceasefire.
The Winds
of October 17 are Blowing
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Some dates carry a symbolic weight. They are kept alive in our memories and
remain part of our collective consciousness after they have passed. October 17,
2019, is the day that Lebanon’s most profound revolution began, facilitating the
first real reconciliation between different generations and competing factions.
United by the violation of their fundamental rights at the hands of Lebanon’s
tyrannical authorities, the people of the country rallied to reclaim the
constitution and build a state that protects its people, as well as demands for
justice. The revolution adopted the slogan of “Saint-Just,” the martyr of the
French Revolution, as its own. “Kellon yaani kellon” (All of them means all of
them) were held responsible for violating the people’s rights and humiliating
the Lebanese. Shielded by the “immunities regime" and a "legal system of
impunity," the authorities who had imposed themselves on the Lebanese people
thought that through repression, clearing public squares, and burning tents
where debates were held, at the hands of Hezbollah supporters, along with
defamation and distortion, would spare them the inevitable. However, the
revolution roared back during the parliamentary elections on May 15, 2022.
With 430,000 votes cast against the regime, proponents of change won 12
parliamentary seats- though they could have claimed around 40 if that year’s
sectarian electoral law had not been tailored to sectarian powers. Despite the
many challenges, primarily domestic, these revolutionaries made their mark in
parliament, by standing in defense of sovereignty and rights on their own. They
rejected the unjust maritime border demarcation deal that Parliamentary Speaker
Nabih Berri played a leading role in negotiating, which surrendered our wealth,
sovereignty, and borders and favored Israel.
The massive Beirut Port blast of August 4, 2020, which turned the heart of
Beirut to ash, amounted to genocide against the Lebanese people that displaced
over 300,000 citizens. With the state nowhere to be seen, the “October youths”
launched a massive grassroots campaign to clear rubble and mend wounds. It
became evident that the ruling elite, led by Hezbollah, had been aware that
Beirut stood on a semi-nuclear time bomb and left its people to their fate.
These figures are mere tools of the murderous Assad regime.
The people responded on August 8, with a massive demonstration that flooded
downtown Beirut. They raised effigies, calling for justice and accountability
for despots. The protest was brutally suppressed, with hundreds of activists
with rubber bullets in their eyes.
The tyranny crossed every line; they looted bank deposits, seized life savings,
impoverished the country, subjugated the judiciary, obstructed accountability,
and bribed the people with a few pennies of their stolen savings handed out each
month. The injustice went so far as rationing the army’s food. The most
outrageous step, however, remains hijacking the truth of the Beirut Port
explosion investigation and the denial of justice to the capital and its people.
When the lead investigator in the case, Judge Tarek Bitar, was about to charge
politicians and security officials from the country’s top brass with "probable
intent to kill," they paralyzed the investigation, even filing charges against
the judge whom they had appointed themselves.
Hezbollah’s stranglehold over the state and its decisions, through the
imposition of a presidential void and power vacuums, was strengthened,
aggravating the suffering of a starving nation by dragging it into a destructive
war. Orchestrated by the Iranian regime following Yahya Sinwar’s war in Gaza,
this conflict sought to reinforce the regional dominance of the Axis. The result
was predictable: negotiations for a ceasefire ensued, and their government
silently signed an agreement that became binding, making the presidential void
untenable. Thus, on January 9, 2025, external forces converged with popular
pressure to impose General Joseph Aoun as our president- a leader who had
maintained the army’s unity and allowed its soldiers to avoid going hungry as
its commander. They were stunned by his inaugural speech, which evoked “Chehabism,”
a state-building doctrine that they worked tirelessly to dismantle without fully
succeeding. Deeply entrenched forces began plotting to undermine and manipulate
the new administration by keeping Najib Mikati as prime minister. Meanwhile,
other factions proposed Fouad Makhzoumi, a man of the past. Then, reformist
deputy Ibrahim Mneimneh made his move, and it would prove to be decisive.
Nominating himself for the premiership, he rejected the false dichotomy of a man
who would cover for illegal arms and an arms dealer. His move intended to launch
a battle for a third option, a towering political and academic figure, Nawaf
Salam, the President of the International Court of Justice. If Mneimneh had not
made this play, Mikati, who had already undermined (by endorsing absurd claims
that limited sovereignty to the area south of the Litani River) the core of
Aoun’s inaugural speech that stressed the state’s exclusive right to bear arms,
would have returned.
For the first time, reformist deputies- both those who form part of the
sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime and those who oppose it- stood
together, embodying the spirit of the October uprising. Ibrahim Mneimneh’s
announcement of his willingness to withdraw in favor of Nawaf Salam sparked an
implosion with the ruling coalition. Deals, whose contents will be revealed in
time, imploded. Fouad Makhzoumi had no choice but to withdraw. The same
parliament that had rejected both Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam walked back on its
stance, and sectarian alliances broke down. On January 13, a powerful
convergence of forces- chiefly driven by an overwhelming domestic desire for
change in the spirit of the October uprising and the efforts of reformist
deputies- ushered in a historic moment. Beirut celebrated and Lebanon rejoiced,
but some faces darkened with defeat as Nawaf Salam was designated.
Known for being an advocate of the link between financial-economic and political
reform, a prerequisite for the emergence of a modern and just rescuing state, he
articulated a vision of a nation worthy of its youth’s ambitions. His goal is
for Beirut to reclaim its status as the "mother of laws" and for Lebanon to
build a state of law, turning it into a country where justice prevails,
dismantling clientelism and sectarianism. It took 123 years for the French
Revolution to yield the Age of Enlightenment. Yet, after just five years, the
October Revolution has borne fruit. However, monumental and imminent challenges
remain. They must be overcome if we are to build foundations that will safeguard
this "October victory” and ensure that it endures.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 16-17/2025
Senior Hamas leader denies Israel claim group backtracking on
ceasefire
Agence France Presse/January 16/2025
Senior Hamas leader Sami Abu Zuhri said on Thursday there was "no basis" to
Israeli allegations the Palestinian militant group was backtracking on elements
of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal announced the day before. "There
is no basis to (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu's claims about the
movement backtracking from terms in the ceasefire agreement," Abu Zuhri told AFP.
Behind the Gaza deal: a US odd couple and last-minute snags
Agence France Presse/January 16/2025
The Israel-Hamas deal was made possible by 18-hour days and a "remarkable"
partnership between Joe Biden and Donald Trump's Mideast envoys -- but even then
it seemed it might come apart at the last minute. In the final four days of
talks, Biden's pointman Brett McGurk was joined in the region by Trump's envoy,
Steve Witkoff, to get the deal over the line, U.S. officials said. As they did
so, Israeli and Hamas negotiators were huddling on separate floors of a building
in the Qatari capital Doha, while moderators from Qatar and Egypt shuttled
between them with their proposals. McGurk and Witkoff were talking "multiple
times a day, and Mr Witkoff actually helped clinch down some of the details.
There was great coordination," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby
told CNN. A senior Biden administration official said that the unlikely pairing
-- there is little love lost between the outgoing and incoming presidents -- had
been a decisive factor in reaching a deal. "Four days ago, Steve Witkoff came
out to join Brett in his final push, which I think is, historically, almost
unprecedented. And it was a highly constructive, very fruitful partnership," the
official said on condition of anonymity. "It was really quite, quite remarkable,
and I think speaks to what can be done in the country."Veteran diplomat McGurk
has served in a number of U.S. administrations, including in Trump's first term.
Witkoff is a businessman and real estate expert but has jumped into the
negotiations -- even insisting that Netanyahu break the sabbath on Saturday for
a meeting in his office as he pushed to seal the ceasefire. The cooperation
between the two U.S. administrations didn't stop them battling over who should
claim credit for a deal that had seemed out of reach for so many months. Trump
said the "epic" win would never have happened without his election putting
pressure for a deal, while Biden said "is that a joke?" when a reporter asked
which of them should get credit.
'Breakthrough' -
But the fact that they worked together at all underscores how crucial a deal was
viewed by both presidents. The seed was planted when Biden invited Trump to the
Oval Office for a meeting eight days after the Republican's election win in
November, and their national security teams agreed to meet, the US official
said. The knowledge that a new U.S. administration would be starting on January
20 then galvanized the Israeli and Hamas sides alike. "In any breakthrough
diplomacy, sometimes you need a deadline," the official said. But another key
factor was the dramatic strategic shift in the region in the last half of 2024
that isolated Hamas from its Iranian backers. Biden introduced the outline of
the peace plan in May, but Washington had concluded that there would "never be a
ceasefire" while Hamas's leader Yahya Sinwar was still alive, and while Hamas's
Lebanese ally Hezbollah still opposed a deal, the Biden administration official
said. Then, Israel killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in September,
and Sinwar in October, while also taking out Iran's air defenses. The fall of
Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in December was a further blow to Hamas.
Negotiations intensified after McGurk returned to the region on January 5 -- "18
hours a day, sometimes longer" -- but sticking points between Israel and Hamas
remained. The final 96 hours were the most intense of all. One of the biggest
hang-ups were the "incredibly complicated" lists for the exchanges of hostages
held by Hamas with Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
"All of that was not fully nailed down until the recent hours," the senior Biden
administration official said.Even then, nothing was agreed until everything was
agreed."I have to say, it wasn't until this afternoon that we had full
confidence that it's going to come together."Biden himself expressed relief that
the deal was finally done. "At long last," he said as he announced the deal at
the White House.
73 killed
in Israeli strikes since ceasefire deal announced
Agence France Presse/January 16/2025
Gaza's civil defense agency said Thursday that Israel has pounded several areas
of the Palestinian territory since the announcement of a ceasefire deal, killing
at least 73 people and wounding hundreds. "Since the ceasefire agreement was
announced, Israeli occupation forces have killed 73 people, including 20
children and 25 women," agency spokesman Mahmoud Bassal told AFP, adding that
another 230 people were wounded in the "bombardments that are continuing", a day
after the truce announcement.
Netanyahu says Cabinet won't meet over ceasefire until
Hamas drops new demands
Associated Press/January 16/2025
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that a "last minute
crisis" with Hamas was holding up Israeli approval of a long-awaited agreement
to pause the fighting in the Gaza Strip and release dozens of hostages. Israeli
airstrikes meanwhile killed dozens of people across the war-ravaged territory.
Netanyahu's office said his Cabinet won't meet to approve the agreement until
Hamas backs down, accusing it of reneging on parts of the agreement in an
attempt to gain further concessions, without elaborating. Izzat al-Rishq, a
senior Hamas official, said the militant group "is committed to the ceasefire
agreement, which was announced by the mediators." U.S. President Joe Biden and
key mediator Qatar announced the deal on Wednesday, which is aimed at releasing
scores of hostages held in Gaza and winding down a 15-month war that has
destabilized the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests. Netanyahu's office
had earlier accused Hamas of backtracking on an earlier understanding that he
said would give Israel a veto over which prisoners convicted of murder would be
released in exchange for hostages. Netanyahu has faced great domestic pressure
to bring home the scores of hostages, but his far-right coalition partners have
threatened to bring down his government if he makes too many concessions. He has
enough opposition support to approve an agreement, but doing so would weaken his
coalition and make early elections more likely.
A night of heavy Israeli strikes
Palestinians in Gaza reported heavy Israeli bombardment overnight as people were
celebrating the ceasefire deal. In previous conflicts, both sides have stepped
up military operations in the final hours before ceasefires as a way to project
strength. "We were expecting that the occupation would intensify the bombing,
like they did every time there were reports on progress in the truce
(negotiations)," said Mohammed Mahdi, who fled his home a few months ago and is
sheltering in Gaza City. Ahmed Mattar, who lives near the city's Al-Ahly
hospital, said he heard "massive airstrikes" overnight.Gaza's Health Ministry
said at least 48 people were killed in Israeli strikes between midday Wednesday
and Thursday morning. Around half of the dead were women and children, Zaher al-Wahedi,
head of the ministry's registration department, told The Associated Press.
He said the toll could rise as hospitals update their records. An Associated
Press reporter on the Israeli side of the border near Gaza heard more airstrikes
and artillery fire on Thursday.
A phased withdrawal and hostage release with potential pitfalls
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel in a surprise attack
on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting
around 250. Some 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, and the Israeli military
believes around a third and up to half of them are dead.
Under the deal reached Wednesday, 33 hostages are set to be released over the
next six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Israeli forces will pull back from many areas, hundreds of thousands of
Palestinians would be able to return to what's left of their homes, and there
would be a surge of humanitarian assistance. The remainder of the hostages,
including male soldiers, are to be released in a second — and much more
difficult — phase that will be negotiated during the first. Hamas has said it
will not release the remaining captives without a lasting ceasefire and a full
Israeli withdrawal, while Israel has vowed to keep fighting until it dismantles
the group and to maintain open-ended security control over the territory.
Israel's offensive has killed over 46,000 people in Gaza, mostly women and
children, according to the Health Ministry. it does not say how many of the dead
were militants. Israel says it has killed over 17,000 fighters, without
providing evidence. The war has destroyed vast areas of Gaza and displaced some
90% of its population of 2.3 million people, according to the United Nations.
Ceasefire leaves questions about Gaza's future unanswered
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. are expected to meet in Cairo on
Thursday for talks on implementing the agreement. They have spent the past year
holding indirect talks with Israel and Hamas that finally resulted in a deal
after repeated setbacks. President-elect Donald Trump's Mideast envoy joined the
talks in the final weeks, and both the outgoing administration and Trump's team
are taking credit for the breakthrough. Many longer-term questions about postwar
Gaza remain, including who will rule the territory or oversee the daunting task
of reconstruction after a brutal conflict that has destabilized the broader
Middle East and sparked worldwide protests. Israel has come under heavy
international criticism, including from its closest ally, the United States,
over the civilian toll in Gaza. It also blames Hamas for the civilian
casualties, accusing it of using schools, hospitals and residential areas for
military purposes. The International Court of Justice is investigating
allegations brought by South Africa that Israel has committed genocide. The
International Criminal Court, a separate body also based in The Hague, has
issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, his former defense minister and a Hamas
commander for war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to the war. Israel
and the United States have condemned the actions taken by both courts. Hamas, a
militant group that does not accept Israel's existence, has come under
overwhelming pressure from Israeli military operations, including the invasion
of Gaza's largest cities and towns and the takeover of the border between Gaza
and Egypt. Its top leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, who was believed to have
helped mastermind the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, have been killed. But its fighters
have regrouped in some of the hardest-hit areas after the withdrawal of Israeli
forces, raising the prospect of a prolonged insurgency if the war continues.
Former HTS fighter Ahmad Hammad al Mansour reportedly
detained in Syria after threatening Egyptian president
Mariam Wahba/FDD's Long War Journal/January 16/2025
The hashtag “Your turn, dictator” has been widely shared on Egyptian social
media in the past two weeks. Modeled after the 2011 rallying cry “your turn,
doctor” used against then-Syrian President Bashar al Assad, the latest hashtag
was coined by Ahmad al Mansour, an Egyptian national who recently served in the
ranks of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) in Syria. Since HTS took control of Syria in
December, Mansour has posted videos threatening Egyptian President Abdel Fattah
el Sisi. “Listen, stupid,” Mansour routinely begins his videos.
On Tuesday, January 14, the X account for the “The 25 January Revolutionaries
Movement” announced that Mansour and several of his associates were arrested and
went missing after he was invited to meet with HTS officials, including Syrian
Minster of Defense Murhaf Abu Qasra.
Ahmad Hamad al Mansour was born in Alexandria, with family roots in Sohag, a
governate in Upper Egypt. He was educated at Al Azhar’s Al Asafra School for
Outstanding Students in Al Boaouth Al Islameya City, an Islamic mission city
that’s part of the Al Azhar educational infrastructure. He later attended the
Institute for Preparing Preachers, where he trained in religious sermonizing.
Following his religious studies, Mansour enrolled in Egypt’s Naval Academy,
majoring in logistics and graduating at the top of his class. During this time,
he was involved in humanitarian missions to Gaza.
Mansour became politically active during the 2011 Egyptian revolution,
participating in protests organized through the “We Are Khaled Said” Facebook
page, a platform that helped spark and organize protests resulting in the
ousting of President Hosni Mubarak.
During the 2013 military coup that removed Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammed
Morsi, Mansour participated in sit-ins and was reportedly a witness to the Rabaa
massacre in August 2013. In November 2013, he left Egypt for Syria.
After arriving in Syria, Mansour pursued a master’s degree in administration and
economics. He joined Jaish al Fatah, or the Army of Conquest, an alliance of
several Sunni Islamist Syrian rebel factions that formed in 2015 and
participated in the Syrian Civil War. It was during this time that he joined
Hayat Tahrir al Sham.
On December 21, Mansour announced his resignation from his position in Hayat
Tahrir al Sham on X.
On January 10, Mansour posted a photo of himself flanked by several masked men,
sitting in front of a banner reading “The 25 January Revolutionaries Movement.”
The banner also displayed Egypt’s monarchy-era flag, while a gun and a single
bullet were placed on the table in front of him.
As a part of his new movement, Mansour has released four demands: first, the
overthrow of President Sisi. Second, the cessation of the military’s involvement
in politics. Third, the release of political prisoners. Fourth, the return of
the goals of the 25 January Revolution: “Bread, freedom, human dignity.”
In his last X post prior to his reported arrest, Mansour issued a message to
President Sisi: “My problem with you is with you personally. […] Your price is
one bullet, and Egypt’s problem will end.”
Mariam Wahba is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Follow her on X @themariamwahba.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2025/01/former-hts-fighter-ahmad-hammad-al-mansour-reportedly-detained-in-syria-after-threatening-egyptian-president.php
Israel
Fired at Vehicles Belonging to Syria's New Military, Killing 3
Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
The Israeli army said it fired at vehicles in Syria loaded with weapons near a
buffer zone established under a 1974 agreement between Syria and Israel. The
strike in the town of Ghadir al-Bustan in Quneitra province killed three people,
including two members of Syria's Military Operations Administration, the
British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The Military Operations
Administration is run Syria’s de facto leadership under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,
which did not comment on the attack. The attack coincided with Syrian security
operations to search homes for weapons, according to the war monitor. The
Israeli military said they located vehicles carrying weapons and “fired a
warning shot adjacent to the vehicles, and the vehicles drove away from the
area.” Asked about casualties, the Israeli military said it had no information,
reported The Associated Press. Israeli forces captured the UN-patrolled buffer
zone in the Golan Heights following former Syrian President Bashar Assad’s fall
last month. The military has been also conducting incursions outside the buffer
zone, prompting local protests.
Netanyahu: Cabinet Won't Meet Over Ceasefire Until Hamas Drops New Demands
Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Thursday his Cabinet
won’t meet to approve the agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the
release of dozens of hostages until Hamas backs down from what it called a “last
minute crisis.”Netanyahu’s office accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the
agreement in an attempt “to extort last minute concessions.” It did not
elaborate.The Israeli Cabinet was set to ratify the deal Thursday. Meanwhile,
Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least 48 people over the
past day. In previous conflicts, both sides have stepped up military operations
in the final hours before ceasefires go into effect as a way to project
strength. Gaza’s Health Ministry said the 48 bodies of people killed since
midday Wednesday were brought to several hospitals.
Death Toll
in Israeli Strikes on Gaza Rises to 77 since Ceasefire Deal
Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Israel airstrikes killed at least 77 people in Gaza overnight on Thursday,
residents and authorities in the enclave said, hours after a ceasefire and
hostage release deal was announced to bring an end to 15 months of war between
Israel and Hamas. The complex ceasefire accord emerged on Wednesday after
mediation by Qatar, Egypt and the US to stop the war that has devastated the
coastal territory and inflamed the Middle East. The deal, scheduled to be
implemented from Sunday, outlines a six-week initial ceasefire with the gradual
withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, where tens of thousands have
been killed. Hostages taken by militant group Hamas, which controls the enclave,
would be freed in exchange for Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel. The
deal also paves the way for a surge in humanitarian aid for Gaza, where the
majority of the population has been displaced and is facing acute food
shortages, food security experts warned late last year. Rows of aid trucks were
lined up in the Egyptian border town of El-Arish waiting to cross into Gaza,
once the border is reopened, Reuters reported. Israel's acceptance of the deal
will not be official until it is approved by the country's security cabinet and
government, and a vote was slated for Thursday, an Israeli official said.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has delayed the meeting,
accusing Hamas of making last-minute demands and going back on agreements."The
Israeli cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas
has accepted all elements of the agreement," a statement from Netanyahu's office
said. Hamas senior official Izzat el-Reshiq said on Thursday the group is
committed to the ceasefire agreement announced by mediators on Wednesday. For
some Palestinians, the deal could not come soon enough.
"We lose homes every hour. We demand for this joy not to go away, the joy that
was drawn on our faces - don't waste it by delaying the implementation of the
truce until Sunday," Gazan man Mahmoud Abu Wardeh said.
Grundberg Hopes ‘Gaza Truce’ Will Revive the Peace Process in Yemen
Aden: Ali Rabih/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Hans Grundberg, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, warned on Wednesday from the
alarming escalation in Yemen that would have devastating humanitarian
consequences for the Yemeni people.In a briefing to the Security Council on the
situation in the Middle East, Grundberg said a ceasefire in Gaza signals hope
that a return to the peace process could materialize between the Yemeni
government and Houthis. The envoy’s briefing came after his talks with Yemeni,
regional and international stakeholders across the region, during visits to
Muscat, Sanaa, Tehran, and Riyadh to intensify engagements for a peaceful
resolution to the conflict. Grundberg has lately kicked off efforts to secure
the release of all arbitrarily detained personnel from the United Nations,
national and international organizations, diplomatic missions, and the private
sector.
In his briefing, the envoy expressed concern over reports of a new wave of
arbitrary detentions, which further exacerbates the suffering of families and
undermines trust. Grundberg mentioned the Houthi attacks on the ships in the Red
Sea and said they hindered the prospects of peace. He added that a ceasefire in
Gaza signals hope that an opportunity to de-escalate could materialize. The
envoy said the escalating cycle of strikes and counterstrikes has hindered the
prospects of peace and destabilized Yemen's economy, adding that the relative
stability and improved security conditions for civilians that have existed since
the 2022 truce could be lost. In contrast to Grundberg's hopes for a revival of
the peace process, many Yemenis fear the Houthis would ignite a new war against
the Yemeni government, exploiting the popular sympathy with Palestine that has
enabled the group to recruit tens of thousands over the past year. In this
regard, Grundberg said, “I am concerned that parties may reassess their options
for peace and make miscalculations based on flawed assumptions.”
Escalation and Detainees
In his briefing, the envoy mentioned the damage caused by the Houthi attacks and
the Israeli and Western strikes in Yemen. “Recent Israeli airstrikes have
damaged critical civilian infrastructure, including the port of Hodeidah and
Sanaa International Airport,” he said, adding that the damage to the port and
tugboats impacts the ability to unload humanitarian aid. Grundberg said during
his meetings in Sanaa, he again urged Houthis to immediately and unconditionally
release all arbitrarily detained personnel from the United Nations, national and
international organizations, diplomatic missions, and the private sector. He
further called on the Houthis to release the Galaxy Leader vessel and its
25-member crew, which have been unlawfully detained for over a year now. He
urged all parties to urgently take concrete steps towards achieving a nationwide
ceasefire agreement in Yemen. Elsewhere, Grundberg spoke about his office’s
engagement in extensive dialogues with Yemeni parties at the technical level on
economic and military issues.“In our discussions, we explored how collaboration
between the parties could unlock critical peace dividends. These include the
unification of the central bank, the resumption of fossil fuel exports, and the
full payment of public sector salaries,” he said.
Yemeni, US Statements
During Grundberg’s briefing, the representative of the United States, Dorothy
Shea, said, “The time has come to respond to the growing global threats by
holding Iran to account for enabling the Houthis long-range missile attacks on
international shipping and Israel.”She said the Houthis have expanded their
campaign of detaining innocent Yemenis, targeting more former embassy staff
simply trying to do their jobs. She stressed the need to deprive the Houthis of
illicit revenues that sustain their attacks and recognize the growing
relationship between the Houthis and other terrorist groups like al-Shabaab.
Meanwhile, Abdullah Ali Fadhel Al-Saadi, Permanent Representative of Yemen to
the United Nations, addresses the Security Council meeting on the situation in
his country. “The humanitarian and economic situation in Yemen is intolerable,”
he said, adding that the government is eager to engage with all efforts to reach
a political settlement. Al-Saadi also called on the Security Council to assume
its responsibilities and implement its decisions that end the Houthi coup based
on agreed international references.
Khamenei hails
Gaza ceasefire as 'victory' for Palestinians
Associated Press/January 16/2025
Iran on Thursday welcomed a ceasefire and hostage-release deal between Hamas and
Israel as a "victory" for Palestinians and a "defeat" for Israel. The
long-awaited agreement, announced late Wednesday by Qatar and the United States,
would take effect on Sunday and involve the exchange of Israeli hostages for
Palestinian prisoners, after which the terms of a broader peace deal would be
finalized. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed Palestinian "resistance"
after the truce announcement to halt more than 15 months of fighting, saying
"the patience of the people of Gaza and the steadfastness of the Palestinian
resistance forced the Zionist regime to retreat."He added that Israel was
"defeated" after committing "the most heinous crimes, killing thousands of women
and children" during its military campaign in Gaza. Iran's foreign ministry
called for the "full implementation of the agreed arrangements including the
complete cessation of genocide and killings in Gaza, the complete withdrawal of
the occupiers, the immediate and extended aid delivery to the Gaza Strip."It
also urged "the immediate start of the reconstruction" of Gaza. The Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps similarly praised the ceasefire agreement as a win
for the Palestinians. "The end of the war and the imposition of a ceasefire...
is a clear victory and a great victory for Palestine, as well as a larger defeat
for the monstrous Zionist regime," the IRGC statement said. Iran's parliamentary
speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also welcomed the truce, stating that it
caused the "Zionist regime to fail in achieving its strategic goals." He called
for actions to "punish the criminal regime and heal the wounds of the
Palestinian nation.".Iran does not recognize Israel and the two countries have
been sworn enemies for decades. The Gaza war, which broke out in October 2023,
drew in Tehran-aligned militants in the Middle East, and included rare direct
attacks between Iran and Israel.
Iran-backed militia will suspend operations against Israel, its leader says
Associated Press/January 16/2025
The leader of the Iran-backed Iraqi militia Harakat al-Nujaba, Akram al-Kaabi,
announced Thursday the suspension of the group’s operations against Israel
following the declaration of a Gaza ceasefire agreement but warned they could
start again if there were violations of the truce. In a statement, al-Kaabi
congratulated the Palestinian people and “freedom-loving” individuals worldwide
on “this important development.”“We will suspend our military operations against
(Israel) in solidarity with the halt of operations in Palestine and to support
the continuation of the ceasefire in Gaza, but let the occupying entity know
that any foolishness from them in Palestine or the region will be met with a
harsh response,” he added. Al-Kaabi said the group's missiles and drones “remain
on permanent standby.”During the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraqi militias
launched a series of drone attacks targeting U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq as
well as sites in Israel.
Syria's Foreign
Minister Calls for Lifting of Sanctions
Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Syria’s new foreign minister has called for a lifting of sanctions that were
imposed on his country during former President Bashar Assad’s rule. In an
interview with Turkish state broadcaster TRT that aired Thursday, Asaad al-Shibani
also said Syria’s new leadership wanted to “open a new page” in its diplomatic
relations with countries that had cut diplomatic ties with Damascus during the
Syrian civil war. “The economic sanctions are one of the problems that the old
regime left us,” al-Shibani said in the interview, which aired a day after he
met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other Turkish officials in
Ankara. “We are saying that there is no longer any need for them. The old regime
is gone.”“These sanctions must be lifted in order for people to live in better
economic conditions and for security and economic stability to be achieved,” he
added.
Leaders from rival Kurdish groups look to mend ties during
Syria upheaval
Stella Martany And Qassim Abdul-zahra/The Associated Press/January 16/2025
The leaders of two previously rival Kurdish groups met in northern Iraq on
Thursday in an apparent step toward reconciliation at a time when the political
upheaval in Syria has left Kurds in the region facing an uncertain future.
Hoshyar Zebari, a senior Kurdistan Democratic Party official, described the
meeting between KDP leader Masoud Barzani and Mazloum Abdi, commander of the
Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, as a “significant achievement to strengthen
Kurdish unity and position” during Syria’s transitional phase. The meeting in
Irbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, came
weeks after the fall of the government of former Syrian President Bashar Assad
in a lightning offensive by insurgent groups and amid an intensified campaign by
Turkey-backed armed groups against Kurdish forces in northeast Syria. There was
no official statement from the KDP or SDF regarding the meeting. A senior KDP
member, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to
brief journalists, said that the talks between Barzani and Abdi focused on
unifying the Kurdish position within Syria and exploring ways to separate the
SDF from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a Kurdish separatist militant
group designated a terrorist organization by Turkey. He said that the KDP leader
had argued that such a move could open doors for broader international support,
particularly through KDP’s relationships with both the United States and Turkey.
The official said that Barzani had also stressed the importance of presenting a
united Kurdish front in Syria to negotiate with the new de facto Syrian
government from a position of strength. He said that Kurdish political gains in
Iraq, including constitutional recognition, could serve as a model for Syria’s
Kurds. The Kurdish-led SDF, which have controlled northeast Syria for the past
decade, is under attack from the Syrian National Army, an umbrella of militias
fighting on behalf of Turkey, which regards the SDF as an extension of the PKK.
At the same time, talks between politicians from Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party and
jailed Kurdish leaders have been gathering steam as they try to end 40 years of
fighting between the state and the PKK. In the security vacuum of Syria’s new
leaders trying to form a new national army following the fall of Assad, there
are concerns about a resurgence of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria.
Kurdish forces have played a key role in the fight against the militant group in
both countries. The regional developments have created growing pressure for
Kurdish factions to set aside their political differences. Earlier this week,
Barzani’s envoy, Hamid Darbandi, met with Abdi in Hasaka, in northeastern Syria.
The KDP in Iraq has friendly relations with Turkey and has been at odds with the
SDF and other groups aligned with the PKK.
Will Egypt
Request Extradition of Ahmad Mansour?
Cairo/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Judicial authorities in Egypt have issued an arrest and extradition warrant for
Ahmad al-Mansour, who allegedly made threats against Egypt from Syria. He was
reportedly apprehended by security forces in Damascus, an informed Egyptian
source told Asharq Al-Awsat on Wednesday.A source at the Syrian interior
ministry told Reuters that Syria's new authorities have detained al-Mansour over
threats he made to the government in Cairo. The source said that al-Mansour has
posted several videos threatening Egyptian authorities, and calling for
protests. Lately, al-Mansour had caused a huge controversy after appearing in a
taped video of himself surrounded by masked fighters in a room decorated with a
flag associated with the Egyptian monarchy before the 25 January
revolution.Al-Mansour's calls were rejected, even by Egyptian opponents, who
said his speech harms the peacefulness of the January 25 revolution in 2011.
Research conducted by Asharq Al-Awsat found no judicial rulings recorded against
al-Mansour, whether on terrorist or criminal charges.The informed Egyptian
source said the authorities issued an arrest warrant for al-Mansour on charges
of joining armed terrorist groups, incitement to overthrow the regime by force
of arms, and threatening Egyptian national security. “Authorities are also
preparing a file to request his extradition from Syria,” the source said.
Egypt's request to return al-Mansour does not require judicial rulings, the
source added. It is enough for Egyptian authorities to ask for his extradition
on the grounds of questioning him, especially on criminal charges, the source
said. MP Mustafa Bakri told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Syrian authorities will not
hand over Ahmad al-Mansour to Egypt. “They arrested al-Mansour only to prevent
him from abusing authorities in Egypt and to avoid any clash with Cairo,” he
said. For his part, Syrian activist and journalist Abdul-Karim Omar, who is
close to the new administration, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the current Syrian
authorities are careful not to turn the new Syria into a threat to any country.
“They want to preserve Syria’s relationship with Egypt,” he said. Omar said he
does not know whether the administration in Syria plans to hand al-Mansour over
to Egypt, but assured that the new administration is keen to get have closet
ties with Cairo.
Erdogan
Warns Israel Over Repercussions of Attacks on Syria
Ankara: Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan preempted discussions with a Syrian
government delegation in Ankara by announcing that the talks would focus on
supporting Syria and reconstruction efforts. Addressing parliament on Wednesday,
Erdogan stated: “Israel must immediately cease its hostilities on Syrian
territory; otherwise, the consequences will negatively affect everyone.”The
Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted Turkish-Syrian talks on Wednesday
under the 3+3 format, involving Foreign Ministers Hakan Fidan and Asaad Al-Shibani,
Defense Ministers Yasar Guler and Marhaf Abu Qasra, and intelligence chiefs
Ibrahim Kalin and Anas Khattab. According to sources in Türkiye, the discussions
addressed developments in Syria, particularly the status of the Kurdish People’s
Protection Units (YPG), the largest faction within the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF). The talks also covered the ongoing clashes between the SDF and the
Türkiye-backed Syrian National Army factions in eastern Aleppo. Ankara aims to
resolve the issue by disarming the YPG, expelling foreign fighters from Syria,
and integrating Syrian fighters into a unified Syrian army.
Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the talks also explored cooperation in
security, counterterrorism, energy, reconstruction, and development.
Additionally, the agenda included the “voluntary and safe return” of Syrian
refugees and efforts to lift sanctions imposed on Damascus.
The sources noted that Türkiye would reiterate its support for the Syrian
administration in various areas to ensure a successful transitional phase and
achieve security and stability in Syria. In a speech to the parliamentary group
of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on Wednesday, Erdogan
declared: “We will not allow any form of chaos in Syria, nor will we permit
seeds of discord to be sown between us and the Syrian people.” He also warned
Israel against continuing its hostilities on Syrian territory. “Everyone must
withdraw their hands from the region. Together with our Syrian brothers, we are
capable of crushing ISIS, the YPG, and all terrorist organizations in a short
time,” Erdogan stated. He described the YPG as the “biggest problem in Syria
now, after the removal of former President Bashar al-Assad,” and warned that if
the YPG fighters do not disarm, they “will not escape their inevitable fate.”He
also emphasized that Türkiye is committed to addressing the concerns of Syrian
Kurds and guarantees their security. Meanwhile, five SDF fighters were killed in
drone strikes and artillery shelling by Türkiye on the Seri Tel axis near the
Tishrin Dam in eastern Aleppo. The number of casualties among Turkish-backed
factions rose to 13 over two days amid ongoing clashes between the two sides.
The fighting, now in its second month, has yet to alter territorial control.
Türkiye-backed factions have taken over Tell Rifaat and Manbij but are facing
stiff resistance from the SDF and its affiliated Manbij Military Council forces
in attempts to breach the strategic Tishrin Dam axis. Simultaneously, the US-led
international coalition against ISIS conducted night drills with the SDF on
Tuesday-Wednesday in the Qasrak base in western Al-Hasakah countryside. The
exercises involved live ammunition and artillery shells to enhance coordination
and combat readiness against potential threats in the region.
Iraq wants Iran-backed factions to lay down weapons, foreign minister says
Timour Azhari/LONDON (Reuters)/January 16/2025
Iraq is trying to convince powerful armed factions in the country that have
fought U.S. forces and fired rockets and drones at Israel to lay down their
weapons or join official security forces, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said.
The push comes with a backdrop of seismic shifts in the Middle East that have
seen Iran's armed allies in Gaza and Lebanon heavily degraded and Syria's
government overthrown by rebels. The incoming U.S. Trump administration promises
to pile more pressure on Tehran, which has long backed a number of political
parties and an array of armed factions in Iraq.Some Baghdad officials are
concerned the status quo there may be upended next, but Hussein played this down
in an interview with Reuters during an official visit to London. "We don't think
that Iraq is the next," Hussein said. The government was in talks to rein in the
groups while continuing to walk the tightrope between its ties to both
Washington and Tehran, he said. "Two or three years ago it was impossible to
discuss this topic in our society," he said. But now, having armed groups
functioning outside the state was not acceptable. "Many political leaders, many
political parties started to raise a discussion, and I hope that we can convince
the leaders of these groups to lay down their arms, and then to be part of the
armed forces under the responsibility of the government," Hussein said. Iraq's
balancing act has been tested by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups' attacks on
Israel and on U.S. troops in the country they say are in solidarity with
Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas war. A promised Gaza ceasefire has the
government breathing a sight of relief, though uncertainty prevails over how the
country may fare after Donald Trump becomes U.S. president. During the last
Trump presidency, relations grew tense as he ordered the assassination of
Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020, leading to an Iranian
ballistic missile attack on an Iraqi base housing U.S. forces. "We hope that we
can continue this good relationship with Washington," Hussein said. "It is too
early now to talk about which policy President Trump is going to follow for Iraq
or Iran."With Iraq trying to chart a diplomatic third-way, Hussein said Baghdad
was ready to help diffuse tensions between Washington and Tehran if asked and
noted previous mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran that paved the way for
their normalization of relations in 2023.
SYRIA
Armed revolution in neighbouring Syria has been viewed with concern.
The Islamist rebels now in power in Damascus were among the Sunni Muslim
militants that entered Shia-majority Iraq from Syria after the 2003 U.S.-led
invasion, fuelling years of sectarian war. Islamic State crossed the same way a
decade later and undertook bloody massacres before being beaten back by a
U.S.-led international military coalition and Iraqi security forces and
Iran-aligned factions. Iraq will only be reassured about Syria when it sees an
inclusive political process, Hussein said, adding Baghdad would supply the
country with grain and oil once it could be assured it would go to all Syrians.
Baghdad was in talks with Syria's foreign minister over a visit to Iraq, he
said. "We are worried about the ISIS, so we are in contact with the Syrian side
to talk about these things, but at the end to have a stable Syria means to have
the representative of all components in the political process."
Baghdad and Washington last year agreed to end the U.S-led coalition's work by
September 2026 and transition to bilateral military ties, but Hussein said that
the developments in Syria would have to be watched. "In the first place, we are
thinking about security of Iraq and stability in Iraq. If there will be a threat
to our country, of course it will be a different story," he said. "But until
this moment we don't see a threat."
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on January 16-17/2025
The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Edmund Fitton-Brown/FDD's Long War Journal/January 16/2025
Iran’s 45-year trajectory from the Khomeini revolution to its current challenge
to Israel, the West, and the Rules-Based International System (RBIS) led to
developing and solidifying its “Axis of Resistance.” Tehran supports and
coordinates this group of regional proxies, including Yemen’s Houthis, Hamas,
and Lebanese Hezbollah, to challenge its enemies in various theaters. A key
Iranian proxy is found among the Iraqi Shia, who have a history with Iran that
goes back to the Saddam Hussein era but whose full value to Tehran only started
to be realized after the 2003 US invasion made Iraq’s largest community dominant
in that nation’s politics.
Iraq’s Shia militias present a challenge to the United States and Israel that is
subtly different from those posed by Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis. They
have a comparatively long history of focusing on Americans as their main enemy
since 2003, seeking in various ways and over several phases to drive US forces
out of Iraq. Subsequently, Iraqi militias have become increasingly enthusiastic
co-belligerents against Israel along with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and
Iran.
Thus, the profile the Iraqi militias have adopted since Hamas attacked Israel on
October 7, 2023, invites conflict not just with the US but also with Israel. The
dynamic of kinetic engagement with Israel, if it happens in the context of the
increasing risk of a war between Israel and Iran, will present a unique
challenge. It could affect the orientation of the Iraqi state and its ability to
balance its relationships with Iran and the US.
One of the most vivid pieces of evidence of the Islamic Republic’s hatred of the
West is seen in the speed at which it exploited the US invasion of Iraq. Saddam
Hussein had been Iran’s deadliest enemy, and a shared hostility toward him could
have brought the US and Iran together for a common cause. The US took military
action in 2003 partly to bring democracy to Iraq, effectively giving power to
the Shia community after decades of Baathist oppression. Yet it was no more than
a matter of weeks before Iran started using its Iraqi Shia proxies to kill US,
UK, and other allied troops who were there to liberate them.
Iran used Iraq as a testing ground for asymmetric warfare techniques, such as
explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), a form of improvised explosive device
(IED) expressly designed to defeat American armored vehicles. Tehran also
exploited Iraqi Shia relationships from the Saddam era to intimidate the new
Iraqi authorities and develop a stifling influence over them.
Among the first wave of Iraqi Shia militias was the Mahdi Army, led by
influential cleric Muqtada al Sadr and based mainly in the Shia-majority areas
of Baghdad and southern Iraq. In the early years after 2003, the Mahdi Army
fought against US and Coalition forces, as well as participated in the sectarian
violence that plagued Iraq during this period. However, from Iran’s point of
view, Sadr was too independent to be a reliable proxy; the Mahdi Army accepted
Iranian support but resisted taking instructions from Tehran. Instead, Sadr was
mainly focused on Iraqi nationalism and asserting Shia political power within
Iraq. Internal divisions emerged within the group as the Mahdi Army came under
external pressure from both US forces and the Iraqi government.
Qassem Soleimani was head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds
Force (IRGC-QF) at the time. Soleimani encouraged a breakaway from the Mahdi
Army by joint Iraqi-Iranian national Abu Mahdi al Muhandis (born Jamal Jaafar al
Ibrahimi), who formed Kataib Hezbollah (KH) in 2007. KH was entirely loyal to
Tehran and controlled by IRGC-QF, with whose support (including advanced
weaponry and specialized training) it was able to establish itself as Iran’s
premier Iraqi proxy militia. From 2007 to 2011, KH became notorious for its
sophisticated attacks on US and Coalition forces in Iraq, making extensive use
of armor-penetrating EFPs and improvised rocket-assisted mortars (IRAMs), aka
“lob bombs.”
Both Muhandis and KH were designated by the US as terrorist entities in 2009.
Following the US withdrawal from Iraq, Muhandis was a key figure in integrating
KH with Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the wider network of Iranian-backed militias
across the Middle East. Then, as the Islamic State (IS) became a rising
challenge in Iraq from 2014 to 2017, Muhandis shifted from heavy involvement in
KH’s operations toward a more strategic-level relationship for the IRGC-QF in
Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). He was killed, along with Soleimani,
by a US strike at Baghdad International Airport in January 2020.
Nevertheless, KH remains an influential force in Iraq to this day. The group’s
leader since 2020 has been Ahmad Mohsen Faraj al Hamidawi, who was previously a
commander of KH special operations and maintains strong ties to IRGC-QF.
Hamidawi had to overcome an internal move to depose him in 2021 but has
consolidated his position and built a stronger relationship between KH and the
Iraqi government. Another key figure in KH is Abdul Aziz al Mohammadawi, the
chief of staff of the PMF.
In the context of the current proxy war between Israel and the Axis of
Resistance, KH was the Iraqi militia responsible for killing three US military
personnel in Jordan in January 2024. The group was then forced to announce its
suspension of all attacks on US forces in the region, ostensibly to avoid
embarrassing the Iraqi government, but more likely because the IRGC feared
direct US retaliation against Iran.
Another key Iranian proxy is Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH), formed by the notorious
militants Qais al Khazali and Akram al Kaabi in another split from the Mahdi
Army in 2006 (pre-dating the formation of KH). Militants who would merge into
AAH fought alongside Lebanese Hezbollah during the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war. AAH
was second only to KH in attacking US and allied forces in Iraq during
2007-2011, after which Khazali accelerated AAH’s political engagement in Iraq
while maintaining the group’s kinetic capabilities and close association with
IRGC-QF.
Since securing its first parliamentary seat in 2014 through its political arm
(Al Sadiqun — “the honest ones”), AAH has expanded its influence in Iraqi
politics and now controls Babil Province as well as a television channel (Al
Ahad). Within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, it commands the 41st, 42nd,
and 43rd Brigades. Khazali still serves as the group’s secretary general, while
Kaabi has gone to Syria to lead Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba.
A number of Iraqi militias have been established more recently, most notably
Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada (KSS). KSS was founded in 2013 under the leadership of
Abu Mustafa al Sheibani, who was formerly associated with KH. At this time, Iran
and its allies perceived the main threat to their interests as coming from the
Syrian revolt against Bashar al Assad. Assad was an ally of Iran, Lebanese
Hezbollah, and the Iraqi Shia, many of whom went to Syria to fight to preserve
his regime. KSS emerged in this context but then shifted its focus to Iraq in
response to the rise of the Islamic State. Sheibani was replaced as leader by
the group’s current secretary general, Hashim Finyan Rahim al Siraji (aka Abu
Alaa al Walai), another former member of KH.
KSS operates in parallel as the 14th Brigade of the PMF, under the military
command of Siraji’s deputy, Ahmed al Maksousi. It also has a political wing,
Muntasirun, and a presence in the Iraqi parliament. Parliamentarian Falih
Khazali, a former spokesperson for KSS, has a high public profile and is active
in traditional and social media, besides being involved with the Muhandis
General Company (MGC), a PMF-backed construction firm created to mirror the
IRGC’s engineering firm and cover vehicle, Khatam al Anbiya.
These Iraqi Shia proxy militias have been shaped by the campaigns the IRGC has
involved them in, which can be broken down into the following phases:
2003-2007 (early post-Saddam conflict inside Iraq and against US forces)
2007-2011 (efforts to complete the expulsion of US forces from Iraq)
2012-2014 (support of Assad against the Syrian opposition)
2014-2019 (the struggle against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)
2019-2023 (consolidation of the Iraqi proxies within the Axis of Resistance and
efforts to expel US forces from Iraq again after the defeat of the Islamic
State)
2023 onward (following Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel and the Israeli
assault on Hamas in Gaza, a shift in focus toward targeting Israel)
KH remains the strongest proxy of Iran in Iraq, and its killing of US personnel
in January 2024 is the most notable Iraqi-generated incident of the past year,
even though Iran quickly forced the group to announce a suspension of attacks on
the US to forestall direct US retaliation against Iran. The security, research,
and analysis firm Valens Global has looked in detail at KH, AAH, and KSS and
concluded that all of them are partially but not entirely responsive to the
needs and wishes of the Iraqi government, and KH and KSS are almost entirely
loyal to Iran. Only AAH maintains an equally limited distance from either
government.
So, what is the overall value of these Iraqi proxies to Iran, and to what extent
are they a factor to be taken seriously in the current conflict between Israel
and the Axis of Resistance—and a possible escalation into a regional conflict
involving the United States?
As mentioned earlier, the calculus in Iraq is different from Lebanon, Syria, or
Yemen because Iraq is willingly hosting US forces for the sake of its security.
The Islamic State remains a latent threat to the Iraqi state and might resurge
in the absence of a US contribution to the country’s defense. The terrorist
group was more than a match for Iraqi troops and militias before the
international coalition came to Baghdad’s rescue.
In September 2024, the US and Iraq agreed that most American troops would leave
Iraq by 2026. The US will not welcome any Israeli action in Iraq that
complicates this orderly drawdown. However, Iran’s Iraqi proxies have attacked
Israel and, now that Hezbollah has sustained so much damage in Israeli strikes
and ground incursions into Lebanon, the militias may feel (and Iran may expect
from them) a responsibility to step up anti-Israeli activity as the nearest
undamaged proxy (only Jordan lies between Iraq and Israel). Certainly, the
Houthis are too far away and too vulnerable to Israeli retaliation to take on
that role. So, if Israel strikes Iran (as most analysts agree it will do, at a
time of its choosing, in response to the Iranian missile attacks on October 1),
the nature of the response by Iran and its Axis of Resistance will be critical
to whether and how any further escalation unfolds.
There is a risk, from a US and Israeli point of view, that a decisive kinetic
response to a provocation from the Iraqi proxies could seriously destabilize
Iraqi politics and drive the Shia-led government into complete dependence on
Iran. This is the key political difference with the dynamics inside Yemen (where
the Houthis, a minority population occupying the capital and the country’s
largest port) can be attacked without prohibitive concerns about impacting the
broader interests of the Yemeni people. The situation also contrasts with
Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s sustained aggression against Israel makes the
latter’s military campaign easy to understand and not entirely unpopular—and
where there is no US military presence or alliance to protect.
Finally, if we have reached a point of no return—where a more widespread
conflict between the Axis of Resistance on one side and Israel and the US on the
other has become inevitable, even if its timing is not yet certain—there is a
vital question about the implications that will follow for the components of
Iran’s axis. There is a common hypothesis, which is by no means universally
accepted, that the theocratic regime in Tehran is weak and unstable, and that a
well-judged military campaign targeting its organs of oppression (especially the
IRGC) could bring about regime change. That would, of course, be the optimal
outcome for the West and dramatically change the Middle East for the better.
This scenario would leave the Government of Iraq with a greatly strengthened
hand, as it would be free to build balanced relations with all of its neighbors,
crucially including Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council partners.
However, if such a wider war produces a less decisive or worse outcome, there
will be no Hezbollah or Houthi-type solution to the Iraqi proxies, and Iraq may
become as much of a headache as Syria became—a failing state, dependent on Iran
and its remaining allies, and suffering from repeat cycles of sectarian
violence.
**Valens Global provided key research for this piece, including deep insights
into Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al Haq, and Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada.
**Edmund Fitton-Brown is a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project. He
formerly served as British ambassador to Yemen and as a coordinator of the UN
Security Council’s Monitoring Team for ISIS, AQ, and the Taliban.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2025/01/analysis-the-role-of-iraqi-shia-militias-as-proxies-in-irans-axis-of-resistance.php
Turkey and HTS: A New Era of Extremism in Syria?
Sinan Ciddi & Sophia Epley/1945 web siteJanuary 16/2025
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2023, Syria is
now controlled by an alliance of opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
(HTS). While there has been a concerted effort by HTS leadership and other
regional powers to portray the group as a moderate and capable governing body,
it is at its core a Salafi-jihadist terrorist group with a clear objective of
ruling under an extremist interpretation of Islam. HTS is a threat to the
stability of the Middle East, broadly defined. Turkey,
a longstanding backer of jihadist Syrian opposition groups, most notably the
so-called “Syrian National Army” (SNA) and HTS, previously expressed discomfort
with their ties to al-Qaeda and made several unsuccessful attempts to weed out
the coalition’s terrorist segments. In the wake of Assad’s fall, Ankara has shed
any attempt to distance itself from HTS, and has thrown its weight behind the
victorious rebel group in an apparent attempt to position Turkey as the dominant
foreign power in Syria.
Turkey Role in Toppling Assad
There is decent circumstantial evidence to indicate Turkey was a major force
behind HTS’ toppling of Assad. Footage of HTS fighters, demonstrating enhanced
military and drone capabilities, suggest that Turkey may have been providing
logistical backing and even advanced weaponry. Iranian officials told Reuters
that Assad had complained to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on December
2nd, less than a week before his government collapsed, that Turkey was actively
supporting Sunni rebels in their efforts to topple him. Within a few days of the
Assad regime’s overthrow, Ankara reestablished diplomatic representation in
Syria, with Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the head of Turkish
intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, paying personal visits to HTS leadership in
Damascus.
How “Moderate” is HTS?
Although the victory of HTS over Assad has been heralded as an optimistic
turning point for Syria, it is imperative to not lose sight of the fact that the
group’s end goals have always been shaped by a commitment to armed jihad. HTS
was founded and grew out of terrorist groups, an origin story that can be traced
back to the beginning of the Syrian Civil War and is integral to their identity.
In July 2011, Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi, then-leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI),
dispatched Abu Mohammed al-Jolani to spearhead al-Qaeda’s entry into Syria.
Jolani formally announced the establishment of AQI’s new Syrian offshoot Jabhat
al-Nusra (JN) or Nusrah Front in January 2012. By December of that year, the
U.S. State Department added JN to the existing terrorist designation of AQI,
acknowledging that the group was a direct offshoot of al-Qaeda. JN claimed
nearly 600 attacks in Syria in its first year of operations, using predominantly
suicide and improvised explosive device operations. According to the State
Department, JN “sought to portray itself as part of the legitimate Syrian
opposition while it is, in fact, an attempt by AQI to hijack the struggles of
the Syrian people for its own malign purposes.”
HTS, which continues to be led by Jolani, was officially created in 2017 when JN
merged with other anti-regime groups in northwestern Syria. The new organization
disavowed any links to al Qaeda, mainly because it wanted to avoid being
militarily targeted by the U.S. and Russia. In May 2018, the U.S. State
Department added HTS to the Nusra Front’s existing designation as a foreign
terrorist organization. Despite attempts by HTS to distance itself from al-Qaeda
or the associations of JN with terrorism, the United Nations continues to
describe HTS “as a vehicle to advance [JN’s] position in the Syrian insurgency
and further its own goals as [al-Qaeda’s] affiliate in Syria.”
Turkish Support of HTS and other Jihadist Entities
The rapid advance of HTS in late 2024 that precipitated the fall of the Assad
government was likely due– in part–- to support from Turkey. There are strong
indications that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan provided assistance to
the HTS in the lead up to its most recent advance, in the form of arms and by
allowing the group to run a key border crossing in northwest Syria. Ties between
Turkey and HTS run deep. Turkey’s clear siding with HTS is fully in line with
Erdogan’s overall strategy in Syria, where he has been committed to
precipitating regime change since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War in 2011.
Turkey’s changing calculus in Syria and abandonment of a once friendly ally in
Assad can be explained by Erdogan’s assessment that the existing Syrian regime
was on the verge of collapse amidst the wave of successful Arab Spring uprisings
in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. However, below the surface, Erdogan and his
Justice and Development Party (AKP) have always been driven by sectarianism and
regional ambitions. As the situation in Syria deteriorated, Turkey saw an
opportunity to help install a Sunni regime—one that would be loyal to Ankara and
might even be influenced by its own Muslim Brotherhood doctrine.
The Turkish regime found a natural kinship with the largely Sunni Syrian
opposition, which strove to topple the minority Alawite Assad regime. Turkey
helped create and mobilize the Free Syrian Army (FSA-later renamed as the Syrian
National Army) and other opposition groups in the early phases of the conflict.
In October 2011, Turkey’s involvement intensified with the establishment of the
Syrian National Council (SNC) in Istanbul in an effort to bring together the
disparate Syrian opposition factions under an umbrella that would attract
assistance from the West. Although the SNC brought together a mix of several
factions of the Syrian opposition, it was dominated by the Syrian Muslim
Brotherhood.
Erdogan’s Plans for Syria’s Kurds
Ankara’s involvement in Syria is also closely linked to Turkey’s fears of
Kurdish separatism. As conflict raged on in Syria, Turkey became increasingly
concerned about the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish zone in northern Syria
near the Turkish border led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF, the
United States’ main partner in the fight against the Islamic State, is viewed by
Ankara as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been
waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984. The Turkish
government has used the Syrian rebellion against Assad as a cover to push
Ankara-friendly opposition forces into Kurdish positions with the ultimate goal
of pushing the SDF east of the Euphrates river and eventually destroying the
coalition entirely.
Overt Turkish Support for Syrian Jihadist Groups
By mid-2012, Turkish involvement in Syria quickly devolved into overt support
for terrorism. Extremist groups quickly became discernible among the Syrian
opposition, with Jabhat al-Nusra becoming a major player. These known terrorist
organizations came to depend on Turkey’s permissive border policies for their
survival. In October and November 2012, FSA officials began reporting to
Washington that jihadists were crossing back and forth, while Turkish border
guards simply looked the other way. Turkey’s complicity in the empowerment of
jihadist groups extended well beyond turning a blind eye, including reports in
2012 that Turkey had set up a secret base with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to direct
military and communications equipment to Syria’s rebels from a city near the
border. By September 2013, Jabhat al-Nusra was said to have 7,000 to 8,000
militants fighting in Syria. Approximately one-quarter of these fighters were
foreign jihadists, who reportedly crossed into Syria from Turkey. By December
2013, JN and other extremist groups had gained even more ground in Syria and had
successfully weakened the influence of other more pragmatic groups among the
opposition. The alarm over these extremist groups was such that the U.S. and the
UK announced a temporary suspension of certain aid to the Syrian opposition. By
2017, HTS had become the dominant Islamist militia fighting the Assad regime and
was reported to have up to 10,000 fighters. The group’s base of power in Idlib
in northwest Syria and control over a key border crossing there with Turkey
played an outsized role in allowing the group to train and prepare for its
successful advance across Syria late last year. Turkey
remained ambiguous about its views of jihadist groups among the opposition,
particularly JN and now HTS. In an interview a few days after the UN officially
designated the group as a terrorist organization in May 2013, Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu told reporters “Jabhat al-Nusra is the result of the
quagmire there… declaring them a terrorist organization has resulted in more
harm than good.” Turkey did officially cave to international pressure and
designated JN as a terrorist organization in June 2014, but it continued to
maintain a pragmatic “peer-to-peer” relationship with HTS and other JN
affiliates in Syria. In 2018, HTS reportedly pledged to help Turkey fight the
Democratic Union Party (PYD), the largest Kurdish militia in the SDF, in
exchange for Turkey’s acceptance of HTS’ territorial control of Idlib.
A Pathway for Washington
As outgoing Biden administration officials quietly update their resumes,
Washington must face the uncomfortable truth: while Turkish-backed jihadists may
have helped dislodge the Assad regime, they are paving the way for another
authoritarian and extremist government.
Erdogan’s motives extend beyond ideology. Ankara seeks to install a pliable
regime in Damascus, one that aligns with Turkey’s strategic interests. Turkey is
prepared to offer military aid, training, and reconstruction support, along with
lucrative contracts for Turkish firms. Erdogan also wants HTS to assist in
eliminating the SDF, reinforcing his tough-on-terrorism image domestically.
Currently, Erdogan is amassing troops along Turkey’s border with Syria. Turkish
air support has already aided the Syrian National Army, and a full-scale
military incursion appears imminent. If Washington fails to act decisively, it
must brace for the consequences of Erdogan’s unchecked ambitions.
Israel, too, is watching closely. A recent report by Israel’s Nagel Commission
warned of the dangers posed by stronger ties between Turkey and a jihadist-led
Syrian government. Such an alliance, the report cautioned, could fast-track the
emergence of a Syrian-Turkish threat.
The question is no longer whether Erdogan will act but what the United States
and its allies will do to prevent a disaster. Time is running out.
**Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Turkey Program and Center on
Military and Political Power (CMPP). Follow Sinan on Twitter @SinanCiddi. Sophia
Epley is an intern at FDD.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/01/turkey-and-hts-a-new-era-of-extremism-in-syria/
Is Trump Caving to China on TikTok?
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/January 16, 2025
The law is clear: No third-party service provider, such as Google or Apple, may
"distribute, maintain, or update" a "foreign adversary controlled application."
The measure designates any app owned by ByteDance, such as TikTok, as such an
app.
Radio Free Asia reported in August 2020 that a Chinese People's Liberation Army
intelligence unit, working out of China's Houston consulate, used big data to
identify Americans likely to participate in Black Lives Matter and Antifa
protests, and then created and sent them "tailor-made" videos on how to organize
riots. Related reporting reveals the videos were TikToks. Fomenting violence in
another country is considered an act of war. Moreover,
in their Supreme Court brief, TikTok and ByteDance argue this: "No arm of the
Chinese government has an ownership stake—directly or indirectly—in TikTok Inc.
or ByteDance Ltd." .... the statement does not cover ownership by the Communist
Party of China, which is separate from the Chinese government.
Articles 7 and 14 of China's 2017 National Intelligence Law require an entity
such as ByteDance to commit acts of espionage if so directed by authorities in
China. Moreover, the statement ignores the Communist Party's demand that any
entity in China, regardless of ownership, obey its dictates.
Now, "TikTok refugees" are flocking to another Chinese app, "RedNote," known in
China by the characters for "Little Red Book." RedNote, the most downloaded app
in Apple's U.S. store, should be treated the same as TikTok.
The law is clear: No third-party service provider, such as Google or Apple, may
"distribute, maintain, or update" a "foreign adversary controlled application."
The measure designates any app owned by ByteDance, such as TikTok, as such an
app.
The Washington Post on January 15 reported that President-elect Donald Trump is
thinking of issuing an executive order suspending the Protecting Americans from
Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. The law is often and incorrectly
referred to as the "TikTok ban."
Trump has no power to suspend the law by executive order. In any event, a delay
in enforcement, even in accordance with the law's provisions, would be a grave
mistake.
TikTok, China's ByteDance Ltd. (TikTok's owner) and TikTok creators sought
Supreme Court review of the decision in TikTok Inc. v. Garland, issued last
month by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit,
upholding the constitutionality of the measure.
The law is clear: No third-party service provider, such as Google or Apple, may
"distribute, maintain, or update" a "foreign adversary controlled application."
The measure designates any app owned by ByteDance, such as TikTok, as such an
app.
The prohibition is set to take effect January 19. Unless ByteDance sells TikTok
to a non-designated party by that date, American app stores cannot distribute
that app and no American business may offer web-hosting services to it. The
wildly popular Chinese video-sharing app is currently on an estimated 170
million phones in the U.S. On January 10, the U.S.
Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case. The Court, however, did not
issue an opinion on January 15, when it handed down a batch of decisions.
Observers had expected the TikTok ruling then.
TikTok users, in their challenge, argued that the law deprives them of a "vital
communications forum." They have a point, but there are overriding
national-security issues.
As an initial matter, the Chinese regime has used TikTok to steal information
from American users. "TikTok collects massive amounts of data on Americans at
the direction of a genocidal totalitarian regime run by the Chinese Communist
Party," Kerry Gershaneck, author of Political Warfare: Strategies for Combating
China's Plan to 'Win Without Fighting,' told Gatestone. "TikTok's invasive data
collection includes usernames, age, biometric identifiers like facial
recognition, location, browsing behavior, and contact lists. It even tracks
keystrokes.
Moreover, Beijing has sent the app off to battle. Beijing uses TikTok's curation
algorithm, which determines the distribution of videos, to propagate its
narratives. For instance, Radio Free Asia reported in August 2020 that a Chinese
People's Liberation Army intelligence unit, working out of China's Houston
consulate, used big data to identify Americans likely to participate in Black
Lives Matter and Antifa protests, and then created and sent them "tailor-made"
videos on how to organize riots. Related reporting reveals the videos were
TikToks. Fomenting violence in another country is considered an act of war.
"Exposure to such relentless flows of propaganda, disinformation, and
psychological and emotional manipulation," says Gershaneck, "is a proven means
to subvert, divide, and demoralize any nation."
Brandon Weichert, senior fellow of the Center for the National Interest, in
comments to this site, reminds everyone that TikTok is "digital fentanyl" and a
"weapon of mass distraction." The American people, he points out, now have "a
once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to save a generation of American children from
the horrors of this Chinese psychological warfare app."TikTok creators also
argued that the law, enacted in April, "violates the First Amendment because it
suppresses the speech of American creators based primarily on an asserted
government interest—policing the ideas Americans hear—that is anathema to our
nation's history and tradition and irreconcilable with this court's precedents."
That assertion is absolutely not true. There is nothing in the law policing
content. The law merely seeks to prevent conduct injurious to the United States.
Moreover, in their Supreme Court brief, TikTok and ByteDance argue this:
"No arm of the Chinese government has an ownership stake—directly or
indirectly—in TikTok Inc. or ByteDance Ltd."For one thing, the statement does
not cover ownership by the Communist Party of China, which is separate from the
Chinese government. Yet the issue is more about
control than ownership. The Chinese regime—the central government and the
Party—controls the app.
For instance, Articles 7 and 14 of China's 2017 National Intelligence Law
require an entity such as ByteDance to commit acts of espionage if so directed
by authorities in China. Moreover, the statement ignores the Communist Party's
demand that any entity in China, regardless of ownership, obey its dictates.
Trump, who in 2020 used his emergency powers to ban TikTok, on December 27 filed
a brief with the Supreme Court seeking an indefinite stay of the law.
Trump, in his brief, stated that he wanted time to pursue a "negotiated
resolution." There is talk of a sale of TikTok to Kevin O'Leary, "Mr.
Wonderful," or Elon Musk. The Protecting Americans
from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act gives the president the right
to grant a one-time extension of not more than 90 days if there is "significant
progress" toward a sale. It is unlikely, however, that Trump could in good faith
make the required factual certifications to permit an extension.
In any event, the exercise of the 90-day provision would be a preemptive
concession. Why should the U.S. take the pressure off China to sell the app? A
reprieve, in effect, allows ByteDance to hold out for a higher price.
More important, any delay, whether by executive order or in accordance with the
law itself, would not be in America's interest. Trump going to bat for TikTok
proves to Xi Jinping that the United States has no will to defend itself from an
app that poisons minds and steals data from more than half the American
population. There is now talk of ByteDance selling the
app but keeping control of the curation algorithm. That should be unacceptable
to Trump because China's manipulation of curation is one of the reasons that
makes TikTok so injurious to America.
Now, "TikTok refugees" are flocking to another Chinese app, "RedNote," known in
China by the characters for "Little Red Book." RedNote, the most downloaded app
in Apple's U.S. store, should be treated the same as TikTok.
Both apps are daggers pointed at the heart of America.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America
and The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior
fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
*Follow Gordon G. Chang on X (formerly Twitter)
© 2025 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Struggle Between ‘Delete’ and Screenshot May Have
Become the Final ‘Fateful Battle’
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 16/2025
Those who follow Facebook closely have noticed a new pattern: writers,
historians, and critics have deleted past remarks (posts) glorifying "Al-Aqsa
Flood" and praising the men who led the attack and the leaders of the Lebanese
"support war,” as well as the posts categorically claiming that a resounding
victory had been achieved. This behavior is sad and
frustrating because it speaks to how a segment of our elites is reacting to a
defeat that may have been the largest and most wide-ranging the Arabs suffered
in modern times. And so, the intention is to use the delete button to respond to
defeats.
Those who recall how the defeat of the Russian Revolution of 1905 shook the
country’s elites, the suffering of the German elite following Hitler’s rise, or
what happened to the Japanese elite after Japan's defeat in World War II, should
forget. In our case, the delete button does the job. Indeed, the segment of our
elites in question chose to ignore its failure to understand how our societies
are structured and what are our peoples’ aspirations, as well as the “West,” the
“East,” Israel, and the resistance... As for the “line of history,” which these
people had always assumed resides in their pockets, it fled to an unknown
location. Because the delete button on our computers exempts us and our culture
from greater and more important expunctions; this button was assigned the task
of synergizing with our tradition of avoiding accountability to rescue
individuals and allow them to save face. As a result, the “great historian” thus
remains great, the “brilliant intellectual” remains brilliant, and life goes on
at its leisure.
The fact is that historical turning points are usually born of technological
advances, changes in popular aspirations and thought, and the lessons of lived
experience. With this elite, on the other hand, these factors do nothing but put
their sheer incompetence on display. They have war and resistance "in their
blood," regardless of shifts in the world of technology, whatever the
convictions and desires which arise and contradict those that had prevailed in
the past (or were said to have prevailed), but also in isolation of an immense
reservoir of experiences.
Indeed, "the people will always defeat the machine,” as had been repeated during
the Vietnam War, does not always hold true, especially when “the people" are not
a people in the sense implied in the slogan, that is, when they are united at
heart and in their determination to fight a particular enemy. On top of that,
there is reason to worry about anyone who assumes that Che Guevara, Sinwar, or
Nasrallah capture the imagination of today's youths, or that the hearts of
millions yearn for martyrdom in battlefields. It seems
the worst manifestation of this wretched thought is its approach to experiences.
There is a large pile of wars and resistance movements in our region that have
ended in disaster, but they have not precipitated a reexamination of those
concepts. This is true of the notion of "Arab unity", for example, which has
been collapsing since 1961, as it is for Soviet "socialism," which collapsed
alongside a dozen countries a third of a century ago, or "national liberation"
and its poor results... Even in the best of cases, we find only involuntary,
incidental mention of the collapse of this or that iconic slogan, as though it
were an action with no an actor behind it or an effect without implications.
When learning from technology, ideas, and experiences is avoided, and they are
not reassessed or built upon as a result, dynamics that resist reality take hold
of this miserable thought. First, reliance on extreme
wishful thinking that leads to the assumption that "obstacles and roadblocks"
will not stand in the way of a promised victory, which is inevitable someday,
Second, the lost cause is associated honor, dignity, and authenticity,
while those who lose faith in it and its alleged victory are associated with
shame mixed with treason,
Third, the dynamic of mitigation or denial is activated, as we saw with Muhammad
Hassanein Heikal dubbing the defeat of 1967 a “setback,” the former Syrian
regime considering it a victory, or Hezbollah’s insistence that its
"steadfastness" is a source of glory and pride.
Fourth, facts are attributed to a conspiracy or mythical hostile actions that
target us, the eternal victims, alone, and we cry out "We have been forsaken,”
Finally, in Marxist circles that appoint themselves the "vanguard" and see their
view of things as "scientific," allowing them to issue fatwas on “thought,
history, and nature,” the problem is not the cause but those who bear it,
because if they had been the ones who representing this same cause, there would
have been no defeat. Given these dynamics, there is of
course no longer an official to blame for what he said and did. The official
becomes the one to cast blame, as he is among the victims of the conspiracy and
aggression himself.
In this soup of ideas, in which failure is buried silently- without
reassessments, recognition, criticism, or declarations of responsibility- the
door to the disasters’ repetition under other banners and slogans is kept open.
After books and print newspapers had preserved our "blunders,” technology now
allows for betting on deletion. Unfortunately, however, this is not a guaranteed
bet. Deletions are nonetheless threatened by the screenshots that may have been
captured by snooping enemies. Accordingly, the conflict between the delete
button and the screenshot may have become the greatest challenge facing radical
Arab culture in managing its "fateful wars."
AMCD supports America First policies toward the Islamic
regime in Iran
Kenneth R. Timmerman/AMCD/January 16, 2025
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy believes the greatest overseas
threat President Trump will face during his second term will not come from
Russia, China, or even North Korea. It will come from the Islamic regime in
Iran. Any idea that the mullahs in Tehran are ready to make a deal with
President Trump is profoundly mistaken. They do not chant “Death to America” at
every public meeting just for the cameras. They believe that their regime will
utterly destroy the United States, and they are planning each day how they can
accomplish that end.
They cleverly use one regime official to dangle the notion of negotiations over
their nuclear weapons program, while others tout the benefits of testing a
nuclear explosive device.
President Trump needs to set out the boundaries of US policy toward the Islamic
regime in Iran just as clearly as he did on January 3, 2020, when he ordered a
U.S. drone to take out Iranian terror-master Qassem Suleymani.
AMCD Advisory Board member Kenneth R. Timmerman has a long history of working
with Iranian pro-freedom forces and has mapped out a comprehensive approach
toward Tehran for the next administration.
In a paper for the America First Policy Institute, Timmerman noted that “the
only solution short of total war on Iran is to empower the Iranian people to
change the regime.”
As a first step, Timmerman believes the incoming Trump administration should
(and will) reimpose the “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and
banking sector.
But he adds that the new administration should couple pressure on the regime
with “maximum support” for the Iranian people by enhancing U.S. government
broadcasting into Iran, providing technology solutions to pro-freedom activists
inside Iran, and by regularly meeting with Iranian opposition figures.
As the lynchpin for this new policy, he urges the president to appoint a “U.S.
Special Envoy to the People of Iran.” This Special Envoy would coordinate U.S.
government outreach to the opposition and promote their activities both at home
and abroad.
The Iranian opposition has many flavors, and Ken Timmerman knows them all. As he
writes in his recent book, The Iran House: Tales of Persecution, Revolution,
War, and Intrigue (Bombardier Books, October 2024), over the past thirty years
he has worked with Iranians “from all backgrounds: billionaires and paupers,
royalty and republicans, Communists and conservatives.”
President-elect Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Lt. General (ret.)
Keith Kellogg, recently met in Paris with the Iranian Mujahedin-e Khalq, or
People’s Mujahedin, a Marxist Islamist group that has been rejected by the
overwhelming majority of Iranian pro-freedom activists.
While General Kellogg quite correctly emphasized that the incoming
administration was going to reimpose “maximum pressure” sanctions on the Iranian
regime, his presence at an MEK event was greeted with dismay by pro-democracy
advocates.
MEK promoters cleverly position their group as the Iranian “resistance,” a false
claim that beguiles non-specialists into accepting their legitimacy. The group
not only assassinated U.S. officers in Iran prior to the Revolution but allied
with Saddam Hussein during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, a fact that most
Iranians have never forgiven.
This is why AMCD believes the incoming administration should appoint Kenneth R.
Timmerman as U.S. Special Envoy to the People of Iran.
Ken’s decades of experience with the Iranian opposition, as well as his work
debriefing defectors from Iranian intelligence for families of 9/11 victims in
their successful lawsuit against Iran, give him an unparalleled depth of
understanding of the regime’s strengths and vulnerabilities.
The Trump administration should be elevating the profile of pro-freedom
advocates in Iran, not encouraging – even by mistake – the neo-con fantasies of
an armed insurrection spearheaded by an anti-democratic group such as the MEK.
Ken Timmerman knows how to navigate the shoals of the Iranian pro-freedom
movement, and how to put America First. As the president’s Special Envoy to the
People of Iran, he will give the president tremendous leverage over the Tehran
regime to achieve our national security goals of keeping America safe from an
Iranian nuclear weapon and regime terrorism.
AMCD urges President Trump to nominate Ken Timmerman as the first U.S. Special
Envoy to the People of Iran.
The Perception Game In Syria
Amb. Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/January 16/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139136/
The Syrian Civil War (2011-2024) was the first great social media war. Twitter,
which had only begun in 2006 played a major role in the dissemination of both
facts and propaganda. The Syrian Revolution – the anti-Assad side – pioneered
social media strategies that were copied by others, including Jihadists like the
Islamic State. It was in Syria that the ISIS propaganda juggernaut reached its
full flowering.[1] ISIS's rival the Nusra Front, today called Hay'at Tahrir
Al-Sham (HTS) named its own propaganda arm, Al-Manara Al-Bayda – the White
Minaret, referring to a prominent landmark at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus
associated with Islamic eschatology. The anti-Assad Syrian Revolution mediascape
ranged from liberal, secularist, and nationalist to Islamist and Jihadist.
Although it suffered an eclipse when it looked like Assad was gaining ground
(after the fall of Eastern Aleppo in 2016), it never disappeared.[2]
The pro-Assad media landscape also evolved.[3] At first, it was just the
Damascus regime but over time outlets like the Assad "Syrian Electronic Army"
were joined by propagandists from Iran, Russia, and the entire "Axis of
Resistance" militia and regime milieu in the region. This effort was joined by
likeminded publicists and activists from the Western far-left and far-right,
both of whom favored Russia and Iran, and by extension, Assad, as nodes of
resistance to Western liberal hegemony. This mediascape was dominant over the
other because in recent years it seemed that Assad had won the war over his
adversaries.[4] This turned out to be a false impression overturned when the
HTS-led Islamist rebels broke out from Idlib in late November 2024 and conquered
most of the country in less than two weeks. Assad fell but the Assad propaganda
network is largely intact, as is the Syrian Revolution network that opposes it.
Syria today is (mostly) at peace, except for the Kurdish Northeast. Syrian youth
are for the first time in over a decade free from brutal conscription, a reality
that led many Syrian families to send their sons into exile. Thanks to generous
offers of help from Turkey and some of the Arab Gulf states, the dire situation
in Syria with regard to both electricity and food seem to be about to improve.
Political prisoners were liberated and the horrible Assad regime torture and
drug-trafficking empires exposed. Syrians today are speaking freely, criticizing
the ruling Islamists, and demonstrating freely. Christmas and New Year's Eve
were celebrated joyfully and openly to large audiences, especially in the big
cities.
Syria today is ruled by radical Islamists with a grim track record. They have
not only committed all sorts of abuses and war crimes, many of them continue to
make all sorts of bloodcurdling promises to this day. Many of the threats have a
clear sectarian nature and the country's new rulers clearly favor the Sunni
Muslim Arab majority. There have been documented cases of violence against
minorities, especially Alawites. There have been summary executions in the
public square, gunbattles in the street, and generalized insecurity and
criminality in many areas, especially the countryside. There are widespread
fears about the future, including of extremist rule.
Both of the preceding paragraphs are completely true. The first was completely
positive. The second was completely negative. Syria's reality is that both these
realities exist side by side, the reason that many Syrians today are both very
hopeful and deeply concerned about the future. In propaganda world, of course,
partisans of the new order in Syria will focus on the positive while the
partisans of the fallen regime will dwell painting the direst image possible of
the reality in Syria. Both sides have plenty of material to work with.
The old propaganda battle, the struggle to manage perceptions and expectations,
has taken on a few new wrinkles. The old antagonists have been joined by new
players – Arab regimes and their supporters worried about the success of
political Islam in Damascus, pro-Kurdish activists who support the Kurdish
dominated SDF in Northeast Syria have joined the fight on the anti-HTS side.
Many Islamists worldwide have also been galvanized by the Sunni Islamist-led
victory in Syria, a victory that was backed by both Turkey and Qatar, who have
their own extensive propaganda networks. They all seek to present the new regime
in the best possible light.
Not surprisingly, the status of Syria's minorities – this is a country rich in
ethnic and religious minorities – has become a bone of contention, a tool with
which to hammer the new regime as it was used to excuse the old one. This, of
course, happened under Assad where he was deliberately portrayed, in an
exaggerated fashion, as the great protector of Syrian minorities, especially of
Christians. The issue of minorities would continue to be an important one in the
first weeks of the new Syria. On Christmas Day 2024, the world's most prominent
Jihadist ideologue, the Jordanian Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi, criticized Syria's
new rulers for not cracking down on the Christian festival.
Jihadist Al-Maqdisi complains about HTS tolerance of Christmas and Crosses
While Jihadists have criticized the regime as being too tolerant, other
campaigns have raised largely false charges about Christian persecution. What
turned out to be a local conflict over land and confiscated property in the
Christian town of Maaloula was falsely portrayed as an anti-Christian pogrom.
The same was true of wild – either completely false or exaggerated – tales about
the closing of churches or removal of Christmas trees. There is also the lunatic
fringe of the social media space that paints the triumph of the HTS led by Abu
Muhammad Al-Joulani in Syria as a Zionist/American plot. In this antisemitic
fever dream, Syria's new rulers are not so much puppets of Turkey and Qatar but
puppets of the Jews. This screen capture from Twitter by a pro-Palestine,
anti-war, anti-capitalist tankie called @YoungChris27040 is a typical example of
this toxic online sub-culture.
While outside propagandists battle over the status of Christians and anything
else in Syria today – how hopeful or how serious the situation is – some
surprising voices inside the country have joined the fray. Many Christian clergy
have been measured and even hopeful in their public statements about the new
status quo inside Syria.[5] Some have not.
A prominent example of the naysayers has been the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of
Antioch and All the East John X Yaziji (whose Patriarchate is in Damascus). When
HTS leader Ahmed Al-Shar'a met with Christian leaders in Damascus in late
December, the patriarch was absent, relying on an old tradition that Syria's new
leader should instead call on the Patriarch in person at his patriarchate in
Damascus's old city. On January 3, 2025, the Patriarch met with the visiting
French foreign minister. Keen observers noted that the church leader had not
used Syria's pre-Assad national flag, contrasting it with a photo from 2023
where Assad's photo and the Baathist flag are both prominent.
Patriarch John X's welcome room in Damascus before and after Assad.
There is some history here. Of Syria's high churchmen, there is probably none
that were closer to the Assad regime than the Greek Orthodox patriarch of
Antioch.[6] The reasons are not so much personal as historic. Of the four
historic eastern orthodox patriarchates – Jerusalem, Antioch, Alexandria, and
Constantinople – Antioch is the only one whose patriarch has been chosen among
Arab, as opposed to Greek, Orthodox clergy, a revolution in church politics
engineered over a century ago with the help of Tsarist Russia.[7] The Antioch
Patriarchate could even be called the Church of Arabism, the body who produced
such errant Orthodox children as Michel Aflaq (co-founder of the Ba'ath Party),
Antun Saadeh (founder of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party), and prominent
Arab Nationalist Constantine Zurayk.
Not only has John X been seen as openly "unenthusiastic," to put it mildly,
about the new order in Syria but he has been aggressive in calling for rights
and guarantees from the new government with a boldness that he never showed once
under Assad. This has led to criticism from some of his own flock on January 7,
under the title of a group calling themselves the "Antiochian Movement for
Change," that accused the Patriarch of being a tool of the Assad regime and its
intelligence apparatus and calling for his resignation. The critics accused John
X of "transforming the church from a spiritual beacon into an instrument
defending an oppressive regime, and making it a political cover for the regime
rather than a refuge for victims."[8] Defenders of the Patriarch in turned
criticized the nascent Antiochian Movement, claiming that it was both
unrepresentative and a likely a tool of Syria's new Islamist rulers. They too
rallied on social media to support him.[9]
But questions of media manipulation and reinvention were not limited to the
Greek Orthodox Patriarch. Others noted the resurfacing of "Assad's nun," Mother
Agnes Mariam Al-Salib, a Lebanese Catholic nun who had lived in Syria for 30
years and openly and repeatedly supported the Assad regime, including in high
profile media junkets in the West.[10] The sister now appeared on several media
outlets, including BBC Arabic on January 2025, criticizing the new Syrian
authorities' supposed bad treatment of minorities.[11] Some Syrian observers
called for her expulsion, noting her lengthy track record of covering for Assad
regime massacres and recycling regime propaganda, which was in turn then
recycled by Russia, Iran, and their ideological allies in the West.[12]
The propaganda struggle in Syria seems doomed to continue. While fact-checking
sites like @VeSyria are doing solid work in both Arabic and English to expose
the lies, the sheer flood of spurious or completely false content is hard to
combat.[13] Even if the regime was spotless in its behavior – and it is not –
its clear ideological orientation, even with the best of intentions, will
attract controversy both in the East and in the West. Many are deeply invested
in seeing the fall or the survival of Syria's interim regime. The fate of
Syria's minorities, especially its relatively small remaining population of
Christians, will continue to be a convenient, high-profile type of shorthand to
demonize the regime or to excuse it.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
[1]
Brookings.edu/articles/here-to-stay-and-growing-combating-isis-propaganda-networks,
October 21, 2015.
[2] Newarab.com/analysis/fighting-truth-against-syrias-disinformation-regime,
October 7, 2022.
[3]
Deeply.thenewhumanitarian.org/syria/articles/2016/10/03/analysis-why-assads-propaganda-isnt-as-crazy-as-it-seems,
October 3, 2016.
[4] Manaramagazine.org/2022/11/regime-legitimation-in-syria-propaganda, November
4, 2022.
[5]
Catholicnewsagency.com/news/261511/syrias-christians-voice-relief-seek-further-security-guarantees-after-political-shift,
January 13, 2025.
[6]
Alaraby.co.uk/opinion/%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83-%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%AD%D9%86%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%AC%D9%8A,
August 3, 2023.
[7] Orthodoxhistory.org/2021/06/30/the-end-of-the-greek-captivity-of-antioch,
June 30, 2021.
[8]
Facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=925986989639251&id=100066838743867&rdid=6wm18YpJlOKxXX2m
[9] Tiktok.com/@elie1997s/video/7458310808724868353, January 10, 2025.
[10] Syrianmemory.org/archive/figures/5fe1f65586773200011acc30, accessed January
14, 2025.
[11] Youtube.com/watch?v=0C94e194oBw&t=83s, January 5, 2025.
[12] X.com/MoMegdadi/status/1876705624609751525, January 7, 2025.
[13] X.com/VeSyria, accessed January 14, 2025.
https://www.memri.org/reports/perception-game-syria?fbclid=IwY2xjawH2I0ZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHRxDSnKDpRXurPoXtMd4A3jpx0q45zKNVpE8VM0J6w-oOvhnGsAz-bciFQ_aem_PcVi9HyxHcSDjRviWrYo1g
Saudi Arabia at the forefront of region’s sustainable
development
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 16, 2025
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as a leader in sustainable
development within the Middle East, making significant strides in renewable
energy investments as part of its Vision 2030 initiative. This strategic shift
is critical because it aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy, traditionally
reliant on oil, by embracing clean energy solutions. The implications of Saudi
Arabia’s commitment to renewable energy extend beyond its borders, offering a
model for neighboring countries and contributing to regional stability and
global sustainability.
A central component of Vision 2030 — Saudi Arabia’s ambitious blueprint for
economic diversification and development — is the transformation of the energy
sector, with a target to source at least 50 percent of the Kingdom’s power from
renewable energy by 2030, expanding its capacity to 130 gigawatts. This goal
underscores Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reducing its carbon footprint and
promoting sustainable growth.
The Kingdom is undertaking several large-scale renewable energy projects in an
effort to achieve its Vision 2030 objectives. The Sudair Solar PV Project,
located in Sudair Industrial City, is set to become one of the world’s largest
solar power plants, with a capacity of 1.5 GW. The project involves an
investment of $924 million and is expected to supply power to some 185,000
households upon completion.
Additionally, the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project, situated in the futuristic city
of NEOM, is set to become the world’s largest utility-scale, commercially based
hydrogen facility powered entirely by renewable energy. The $8.4 billion project
will integrate 3.9 GW of renewable power from solar, wind and storage. When it
becomes operational, which is expected to be in 2026, the facility aims to
produce 600 tonnes per day of clean hydrogen.
The Kingdom is undertaking several large-scale renewable energy projects in an
effort to achieve its Vision 2030 objectives
Another key project, the Al Shuaibah solar plant, will contribute significantly
to Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy capacity, aligning with the Kingdom’s goal of
achieving 130 GW of renewable capacity by 2030.
Last September, a consortium led by Saudi Aramco’s power unit, along with ACWA
Power and Badeel, signed deals worth $3.28 billion to supply solar power to
Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Power Procurement Company. These agreements are
part of the Kingdom’s efforts to diversify its energy sources away from liquid
fuels. This kind of proactive approach demonstrates Saudi Arabia’s readiness to
lead the renewable energy revolution in the region.
Countries in the Middle East, a region rich in fossil fuel resources, have long
relied on oil and gas as the backbone of their economies. These resources have
met their domestic energy needs and sustained economic growth through exports,
positioning the region as a pivotal player in the global energy market. However,
this dependency has made the region vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil
prices, geopolitical tensions and the finite nature of fossil fuel reserves.
The growing urgency of the climate crisis, alongside global efforts to
transition toward sustainable energy systems, also underscores the necessity for
a shift in the Middle East’s energy paradigm. Countries in the region,
particularly Saudi Arabia, are increasingly recognizing that relying solely on
traditional energy sources is no longer a viable long-term strategy.
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s investments in renewable energy represent a
multifaceted approach to addressing these challenges. First of all, by reducing
its dependence on oil exports, the Kingdom is shielding its economy from the
unpredictable nature of global oil markets. This diversification ensures a more
stable economic future, as it fosters growth in emerging sectors such as solar
and wind energy, hydrogen production and related industries. These sectors not
only provide opportunities for economic expansion, they also create new avenues
for employment, particularly for younger generations. Moreover, the integration
of renewable energy technologies can spur innovation and attract international
investment, further solidifying the Kingdom’s economic resilience.
By reducing its dependence on oil exports, the Kingdom is shielding its economy
from the unpredictable nature of global oil markets
Another critical aspect of this transition is its environmental significance.
The shift to renewable energy sources significantly curtails greenhouse gas
emissions, aligning Saudi Arabia with international climate goals such as the
Paris Agreement. The Middle East is especially vulnerable to the adverse effects
of climate change, including rising temperatures, water scarcity and
desertification, making it imperative for the region to contribute to global
mitigation efforts. Additionally, by diversifying its energy portfolio, Saudi
Arabia enhances its energy security, reducing reliance on a single resource and
mitigating the risks associated with geopolitical conflicts, which often
surround fossil fuel markets.
This strategic move not only strengthens the Kingdom’s national security, it
also positions it as a leader in addressing global environmental and energy
challenges. Saudi Arabia’s proactive approach ought to also set an example for
other Middle Eastern countries to follow. Neighboring nations can draw valuable
lessons from the Kingdom’s strategies. Establishing clear and supportive
policies is crucial for attracting investments in renewable energy. Vision 2030
provides a comprehensive roadmap that other countries can emulate.
Collaborations between government entities and private companies have been
instrumental in advancing Saudi Arabia’s renewable projects. Such partnerships
can mobilize resources and expertise effectively.
Allocating funds toward advanced technologies and infrastructure development is
essential as well. Saudi Arabia’s investments in solar and hydrogen projects
demonstrate the benefits of embracing innovative solutions.
The Kingdom’s commitment to renewable energy is a forward-looking strategy that
addresses both national and global challenges. By investing in sustainable
energy, the Kingdom is not only securing its economic future but also
contributing to global environmental goals. The Middle East, with its vast
potential for solar and wind energy, stands to gain significantly from embracing
renewable energy. In fact, collective regional efforts can lead to enhanced
regional stability, as shared investments in renewable energy can foster
cooperation and reduce tensions arising from resource competition.
In other words, the Middle East can position itself as a leader in the global
shift toward sustainable energy, influencing international policies and markets.
Diversifying energy sources can lead to sustainable economic development,
creating jobs and promoting technological innovation.
In conclusion, Saudi Arabia’s leadership in renewable energy investments marks a
transformative period for the Middle East. The Kingdom’s initiatives under
Vision 2030 not only pave the way for its sustainable future, but also serve as
a catalyst for regional and global progress toward environmental sustainability
and economic resilience.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian
American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh