English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 30/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
"Jesus said to his disciples, ‘Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat, or about your body, what you will wear. For life is more than food, and the body more than clothing.
Luke 12/22-31: "Jesus said to his disciples, ‘Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat, or about your body, what you will wear. For life is more than food, and the body more than clothing. Consider the ravens: they neither sow nor reap, they have neither storehouse nor barn, and yet God feeds them. Of how much more value are you than the birds! And can any of you by worrying add a single hour to your span of life? If then you are not able to do so small a thing as that, why do you worry about the rest? Consider the lilies, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin; yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one of these. But if God so clothes the grass of the field, which is alive today and tomorrow is thrown into the oven, how much more will he clothe you you of little faith! And do not keep striving for what you are to eat and what you are to drink, and do not keep worrying. For it is the nations of the world that strive after all these things, and your Father knows that you need them. Instead, strive for his kingdom, and these things will be given to you as well."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 29-30/2024
Israel insists on harsh response to Hezbollah despite diplomatic efforts to avoid wider war
Could the Majdal Shams soccer field tragedy spark an all-out Israel-Hezbollah war?
Netanyahu vows 'severe' response as Majdal Shams residents protest his visit
Blinken discusses with Israel president efforts to reach solution with Lebanon
Two killed, three injured in morning strikes on Shaqra
Hezbollah starts moving missiles amid Israel threat, official says
Israeli officials say they want to hurt Hezbollah but not drag region into war
Jumblat slams Israel 'lies' over Majdal Shams, says Hezbollah 'Lebanese resistance'
Bou Habib says diplomatic efforts ongoing to rein in awaited Israeli retaliation
Rome tells Katz and Bou Habib halt of Mideast 'spiral of violence' possible
Majdal Shams strike raises fears of broader regional war
Druze town buries 12th victim of Golan Heights rocket fire
Lufthansa, Air France halt Beirut flights as Israel tensions rise
Flurry of diplomatic activity in Lebanon as UK 'condemns' Golan attack
Lebanon urges international probe into deadly Golan strike
Lufthansa, Air France halt Beirut flights as Israel tensions rise
Middle East Airlines reschedules flights
UN chief condemns strike on Golan Heights
White House says Hezbollah behind 'horrific' Golan Heights strike
Netanyahu says Hezbollah will pay heavy price for Majdal Shams strike
Hezbollah evacuates positions ahead of expected Israel raids
Iran warns of serious consequences for any Israeli hit on Lebanon
Flurry of diplomatic activity in Lebanon as UK 'condemns' Golan attack
The Terrifying Lebanon Scenarios/Jonathan Schanzer/The commentary/July 29/2024
AMCD Condemns Hezbollah Rocket Attack on Israeli Playground and Calls for UNSCR 1559 Implementation
Lebanon’s Hassan makes history with win over Eubanks

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 29-30/2024
Netanyahu vows 'severe' response as Majdal Shams residents protest his visit
Netanyahu vows retaliation against Hezbollah after weekend strike as US warns against escalation
The Israel-Hezbollah war that no one wants could finally blow up
Druze town buries 12th victim of Golan Heights rocket fire
Israeli protesters enter army base after soldiers held over Gaza detainee abuse
How bombing Gaza to rubble created headaches and a tough fight for invading Israeli tanks and troops
Israeli military detains 9 soldiers over alleged abuse of a detainee at a shadowy military facility
Israeli military probes suspected abuse of Palestinian detainee, draws protests
Berlin calls on Iran and others to prevent Middle East escalation
Israel foreign minister urges NATO expel Turkey over threat to enter Israel
Turkish official accuses Israel of targeting Erdogan after he seemed to threaten to invade over Gaza
Trump agrees to be interviewed as part of an investigation into his assassination attempt, FBI says

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 29-30/2024
Trump's China Tariffs: Extraordinarily Good for America/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/July 29, 2024
What a Harris presidency might mean for Palestinians/Chris Doyle /Arab News/July 29/2024
The realities and challenges facing Pezeshkian’s economic vision/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/July 29/2024
Voices of peace can find strength through unity/Ronald S. Lauder/Arab News/July 29/2024
Israel and the limits of fire/Ghassan Charbel/Arab News/July 29/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 29-30/2024
Israel insists on harsh response to Hezbollah despite diplomatic efforts to avoid wider war
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/July 29, 2024
BEIRUT: Political and diplomatic communications have intensified between Lebanon and other nations to mitigate the serious escalation between Hezbollah and Israel. The communications aim to prevent Lebanon from entering into an open conflict, particularly in light of Israel’s decision on Sunday night to strike Hezbollah in response to what it deemed “Hezbollah’s responsibility for the shelling of Majdal Shams.” Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 teenagers and children on Saturday. A Lebanese government source said that “international communications” had so far succeeded in containing an all-out war. Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee stated: “Our response to Hezbollah will be clear and strong.” A Lebanese security source confirmed that Hezbollah evacuated several key points in the south and Bekaa since Sunday, near the Lebanese-Syrian border and the vicinity of Sayyida Zainab in Syria, “in anticipation of an Israeli strike.” Lebanon witnessed a state of anticipation and caution on Monday, especially in the southern regions, the Bekaa, and Beirut. Movement remained relatively cautious on roads connecting the regions. The announcement that some airlines were suspending their flights to Lebanon further increased caution. Foreign ministries, instead of embassies, warned their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately or “prepare for long periods of shelter.”
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati received a call from British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who renewed “the call on all parties to exercise restraint to prevent escalation.”Lammy stressed the need to “resolve disputes peacefully and through the implementation of relevant international resolutions.”Reuters reported that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Israeli President Isaac Herzog and emphasized “the importance of preventing the escalation of conflict after the missile attack in the Golan Heights.”According to Reuters, Blinken and Herzog discussed “a diplomatic solution that allows residents on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border to return to their homes.”Reuters quoted an Israeli official as saying: “We want to harm Hezbollah, but we are not seeking a full-scale regional war.”The hostile operations between Hezbollah and the Israeli army did not stop on Monday. An Israeli raid in the morning targeted two locations. The first raid targeted a car near Shaqra, and when a motorcycle arrived at the scene, it was targeted by a second raid.This resulted in the death of two people and the injury of three others, including a child. Hezbollah mourned its two killed members, Abbas Salami, aged 34, from the town of Kharbat Salem, residing in the town of Shaqra, and Abbas Hijazi, aged 29, from the town of Majdal Salem. Israeli airstrikes hit Houla, with Israeli artillery bombarding the outskirts of Aitaroun. Residential areas to the south of Mays Al-Jabal were also hit by artillery and phosphorous shells, resulting in fires. The outskirts of Markaba, Rab El-Thalathine, and Kafr Hamam were also attacked. The Israeli army conducted a sweeping operation toward Kafr Kila from its outposts in the settlement of Metula using automatic weapons. Hezbollah continued attacking Israeli positions.
The Al-Manar channel — affiliated with Hezbollah — reported that “large fires broke out in the forests surrounding the settlement of Kiryat Shmona after missiles fell in the area.”Hezbollah said it targeted the Al-Baghdadi site with dozens of Katyusha rockets.It also targeted the Israeli soldiers’ position at the Al-Raheb site with guided missiles. Israeli media reported the fall of several rockets at the Hagoma junction in Upper Galilee. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated the Israeli threat that Hezbollah “will pay a heavy price, and we will let actions speak, not words.”On Monday afternoon, Middle East Airlines’ aircraft landed on the runways of Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut after their flights were suspended on Sunday night. The airline attributed the irregularity in its flight schedules to “insurance risks.”The airport witnessed a rush of passengers arriving in Lebanon, mostly Lebanese expatriates, while others were departing.Hala, an employee at the reception area at the airport, told Arab News: “When we ask arriving passengers if they are afraid to come to Lebanon, they laugh and continue to walk.”
The US Embassy in Lebanon, in a video clip by Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs Rena Bitter, advised American citizens to “develop a crisis plan of action and leave before the crisis begins.”Bitter stressed: “Washington is laser-focused on Lebanon. The US Department of State has no higher priority than the safety and security of US citizens overseas.” She reminded US citizens of key points on crisis preparedness so they could receive direct alerts from the embassy. She said: “Regularly scheduled commercial transportation is always the best option, while local communications and transportation infrastructure are intact and operating normally. “Please ensure your US passports are valid for at least six months. Should commercial airlines not be available, people should be prepared to shelter in a place for long periods.”The Italian foreign minister also urged Italian nationals to leave Lebanon, while the German government spokesperson advised German citizens to “urgently leave Lebanon.”The Lufthansa Group, which also includes Swiss International Air Line and Eurowings, said in a statement that it would “suspend flights to Beirut until Aug. 5 due to the current situation in the Middle East, and as a precautionary measure.”
Air France and Transavia suspended their flights to Beirut until Wednesday.
Saudi Arabia urged its citizens to “adhere to the decision of not traveling to Lebanon.”
Royal Jordanian Airlines suspended its flights to Beirut.
Turkish Airlines canceled two flights to Beirut.
Turkish low-cost carrier SunExpress, Turkish Airlines’ AJET, Greece’s Aegean Airlines and Ethiopian Airlines also canceled flights.

Could the Majdal Shams soccer field tragedy spark an all-out Israel-Hezbollah war?
Najia Houssari & Nadia Al-Faour/Arab News/July 29, 2024
BEIRUT/DUBAI: Israel’s security cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to retaliate for Saturday’s rocket attack on a soccer field in the Druze Arab town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children. According to the Israeli military, Majdal Shams was hit with an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket carrying a 50-kg warhead, launched by Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia — a conclusion supported by the US. Hezbollah, which has traded regular cross-border fire with Israel since the Gaza war began on Oct. 7, said it had “no connection” to the incident, but confirmed it had fired one such rocket on Saturday toward an Israeli military target in the Golan. In a statement, it said that “the Islamic Resistance has absolutely nothing to do with the incident, and we categorically deny all false allegations in this regard,” blaming the fatalities instead on a failed Israeli interceptor missile. The Majdal Shams incident followed an Israeli strike that killed four Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, prompting the militia to launch retaliatory rocket attacks against the Golan and northern Israel. In a thread posted on social media platform X, Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said one possible scenario is that Hezbollah or one of its allies like the Al-Fajr Forces and the Al-Qassam Brigades fired the rockets by mistake. Regardless of what took place, “in all cases, the massacre provided the Netanyahu government with an (excuse) to respond with force,” he said.
Netanyahu, who returned from his US visit early, immediately attended a security cabinet meeting, telling local media that “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price” for the attack, “a price it has not paid before.”After the meeting, his office said: “The members of the cabinet authorized the prime minister and the defense minister to decide on the manner and timing of the response against the Hezbollah terrorist organization.” On Sunday, during a visit to Majdal Shams, Gallant vowed to “hit the enemy hard,” raising fears the war in Gaza could spread. Iran, meanwhile, warned Israel that any new military “adventures” in Lebanon could lead to “unforeseen consequences.”Israel’s army called it “the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians” since the exchanges of fire across the Lebanese border began in October. The attack has heightened fears that what have been relatively contained hostilities so far could spiral into all-out war. Indeed, region watchers are fearful that any major retaliation to the attack mounted by Israel could even draw Hezbollah’s Iranian backers into the fray.
“A strong Israeli response against Hezbollah could provoke another direct retaliation from Iran,” Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born Israeli Middle East commentator and academic, said following the rocket attack. As with previous escalatory incidents between Israel and its Iran-backed foes since the Gaza war erupted, retaliatory actions have been relatively minor and carefully orchestrated to maintain their deterrence effect without sparking a major confrontation. However, Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Middle East Institute, is under no illusions about the severity of the situation. “The risk of further miscalculation hasn’t been any higher,” he said. “A broader Israel-Lebanon war has been a long time coming. A ‘positive’ scenario will see the coming offensive contained to the now largely de-populated areas of both countries.”
INNUMBERS
12 Children and teenagers killed in Saturday’s rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. 527 People killed on the Lebanese side of the border since Israel-Hezbollah exchanges began in October, including at least 104 civilians. 46 People killed on the Israeli side — including in the Golan Heights — 22 of them soldiers and 24 of them civilians, according to Israel’s army. Although the rocket attack and subsequent Israeli retaliation could create the conditions for a rapid escalation, Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center believes Hezbollah is still eager to avoid an all-out war. “It remains that Hezbollah wants to avoid a war and would show restraint following the Israeli response,” he said. “Even if Hezbollah crosses a red line, Hezbollah would likely choose a symbolic ‘tick the box’ response.”However, “the Majdal Shams attack highlights the challenge of sustaining a geographically restricted conflict for many months. Mistakes or miscalculations are bound to happen and could escalate into a conflict, regardless of the various parties’ desire to avoid conflict.”

Netanyahu vows 'severe' response as Majdal Shams residents protest his visit
Agence France Presse/July 29-30/2024
Some residents of the Golan Heights village where a rocket killed 12 youths over the weekend protested Monday the visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials expressing condolences. Netanyahu is weighing Israel's response to the attack it blames on Hezbollah, which in a rare move has denied having a role. The prime minister laid a wreath, expressed his shock and said the local Druze community has paid a heavy price. He met with representatives of victims' families. But after Netanyahu left the area of the soccer field where the rocket hit, some people ran there, threw away the wreath and protested the political use of the tragedy. Relatives and friends of the dead cried over photos of the children and teens that had been placed there. They said they want the war to end. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged cross-border fire since Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack that sparked the war in Gaza. The weekend attack in Majdal Shams again raised concerns about a wider regional war. Netanyahu, during his visit, vowed Israel would deliver a "severe response"."These children are our children ... The State of Israel will not, and cannot, let this pass. Our response will come and it will be severe," Netanyahu said at the site of the attack, according to a statement issued by his office.

Blinken discusses with Israel president efforts to reach solution with Lebanon
Naharnet/July 29/2024
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held phone talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Monday to discuss the tensions between Israel and Lebanon following the deadly rocket strike on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. The State Department said Blinken in the call with Herzog “emphasized the importance of preventing escalation of the conflict and discussed efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to allow citizens on both sides of the border between Israel and Lebanon to return home." Blinken also underscored the United States’ commitment to Israel’s defense against Iranian-allied armed groups and discussed with Herzog ongoing efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza.Israeli leaders are weighing a response to the weekend rocket attack that killed 12 young people in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel blamed Hezbollah, which denied responsibility. The U.S. and France for months have pushed a negotiated agreement between Hezbollah and Israel to keep the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza from spinning into a larger and more dangerous regional conflict.

Two killed, three injured in morning strikes on Shaqra
Naharnet/July 29/2024
Hezbollah launched Monday "dozens of Katyusha rockets" at an Israeli military site following the "assassination" of two of its fighters. The pair were killed in an air raid on a road between Shaqra and the southern border town of Mays al-Jabal. Two people were killed in a drone strike on their motorcycle on a road between Shaqra and Mays al-Jabal, the National News agency said. A drone had targeted a car, injuring two people. It later struck the motorbike as it approached the targeted car. A child nearby was injured in the second strike. Hezbollah announced the death of two of its fighters "on the road to Jerusalem" and targeted the Baghdadi post with dozens of Katyusha rockets and soldiers in the al-Raheb post, in retaliation to the "assassination" in Shaqra. Later in the day, Hezbollah targeted surveillance equipment in Malkia in northern Israel. The cross-border violence has so far killed at least 529 people in Lebanon, according to an AFP tally, most of them fighters but also including 104 civilians. On the Israeli side, 24 civilians and 22 soldiers have been killed, according to the military. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has said that if a ceasefire was reached in Gaza, his movement would stop cross-border attacks. Blinken said the best way to prevent the Gaza conflict from escalating "is to get the ceasefire in Gaza that we're working so hard on". Months of effort have failed to secure a deal, but Egyptian state-linked media said talks were taking place Sunday in Rome.

Hezbollah starts moving missiles amid Israel threat, official says
Associated Press
Hezbollah has started moving precision-guided missiles as Israel threatens to launch an attack on Lebanon following the weekend strike that killed 12 children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. An official with the Lebanese group told The Associated Press that Hezbollah’s stance has not changed and that the Iran-backed group does not want a full-blown war with Israel, but if war breaks out it will fight without limits.The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military activities, said Hezbollah since Sunday has started moving some of its “smart precision-guided missiles” to use if needed. Since the war in Gaza began in October, Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and scores of explosive drones into Israel. Israel estimates that Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles.

Israeli officials say they want to hurt Hezbollah but not drag region into war
Naharnet
Israel wants to hurt Hezbollah but not drag the Middle East into all-out war, the Times of Israel has quoted two Israeli officials as saying, as Lebanon braces for retaliation after a rocket strike that Israel blamed on Hezbollah killed 12 children and teens in the Golan Heights on Saturday. Two other Israeli officials said Israel is preparing for the possibility of a few days of fighting. All four officials, who included a senior defense official and a diplomatic source, spoke on condition of anonymity and gave no further information about Israel’s plans for retaliation. “The estimation is that the response will not lead to an all-out war,” said the diplomatic source. “That would not be in our interest at this point,” the source added. Israel and the United States have blamed Iran-backed Hezbollah for the deadly strike. Hezbollah has denied any role.

Jumblat slams Israel 'lies' over Majdal Shams, says Hezbollah 'Lebanese resistance'
Naharnet/July 29/2024 
Lebanon’s Druze leader Walid Jumblat has blasted as “lies” Israel’s accusations that Hezbollah was behind the rocket that killed 12 youngsters in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. “Where did they bring these proofs and arguments from?” Jumblat added, in an interview on Al-Jazeera television. “Majdal Sham is Arab and most of the Golan’s residents are Arabs who rejected Israeli citizenship,” the Druze leader added. “Enough with lies, enough with shedding crocodile tears over the Druze Arabs in the Golan, occupied Palestine or Lebanon. Mere lies; this is Israel,” Jumblat went on to lies. Noting that he is counting on Speaker Nabih Berri’s efforts and the Speaker’s communication with U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein, Jumblat revealed that he had personally chided the U.S. envoy when he called him on Saturday. “Hochstein called me yesterday and warned of an operation. I told him that it would be better for him to seek a ceasefire instead of relaying a threatening message from Israel,” Jumblat added. He also stressed that Hezbollah is “a Lebanese resistance movement” and “a part of Lebanon.”

Bou Habib says diplomatic efforts ongoing to rein in awaited Israeli retaliation
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
A flurry of diplomatic activity is underway to contain an expected Israeli response against Hezbollah, Lebanon's top diplomat said, after an attack blamed on the group killed civilians in the annexed Golan Heights. On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had vowed to "hit the enemy hard" after rocket fire killed 12 minors, raisings fears the war in Gaza could spread. Israel has accused Lebanon's Hezbollah movement of firing a Falaq-1 Iranian rocket, but the Iran-backed group -- which has regularly targeted Israeli military positions -- said it had "no connection" to the incident. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the United States, France and others were trying to contain the escalation, in an interview late Sunday with local broadcaster Al-Jadeed. "Israel will escalate in a limited way and Hezbollah will respond in a limited way... These are the assurances we've received," Bou Habib said. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati had also said that "talks are ongoing with international, European and Arab sides to protect Lebanon and ward off dangers," in a statement Sunday. The rocket fire in Majdal Shams, whose population is Arabic-speaking Druze, prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to return early from the United States. On Sunday, the White House said the deadly rocket fire was "conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah".National Security Council Spokeswoman Adrienne Watson also said the U.S. had been "in continuous discussions" with Israel and Lebanon since the attack. Hezbollah has traded near-daily cross-border fire with Israel in support of Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on southern Israel triggered war in the Gaza Strip. It has evacuated positions in south and east Lebanon after Israeli threats of reprisals, a source close to the group told AFP. The cross-border violence since October has killed at least 527 people in Lebanon, according to an AFP tally, most of them fighters but also including 104 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed, according to Israeli authorities.

Rome tells Katz and Bou Habib halt of Mideast 'spiral of violence' possible
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Italy's foreign minister told his Israeli and Lebanese counterparts Monday it was "possible to interrupt the spiral of violence" as he reiterated calls for a ceasefire, his office said. The foreign ministry said Antonio Tajani spoke with both Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Lebanon's Abdallah Bou Habib, two days after a strike killed 12 minors in the annexed Golan Heights. "It is possible to interrupt the spiral of violence and it must be done now. A new war must absolutely be avoided," Tajani said in a statement released by his office.To both of his counterparts he "(reiterated) Italy's request for an immediate ceasefire and de-escalation throughout the region". Tajani's appeal joined what Bou Habib described Sunday as diplomatic efforts by the United States, France and other nations to try to contain an anticipated response by Israel to the attack. "To Minister Katz, I expressed the government’s deep condolences for the vile attack on Majdal Shams, which tragically took the lives of innocent young people," he said. Israel and the United States have blamed the Saturday rocket attack that killed 12 victims aged 10 to 16 on Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah group. "To Minister Bou Habib, I confirmed the Italian government’s commitment to the Lebanese institutions, whose stability is key for the entire region," Tajani said. "We are committed to supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), at a bilateral and multilateral level, promoting an international aid program that can allow them to be strengthened and better equipped."Tajani also called for "respect and protection" for the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, which includes 1,000 Italian soldiers.

Majdal Shams strike raises fears of broader regional war
Associated Press/July 29/2024
The Middle East braced for a potential flare-up in violence after Israeli authorities said a rocket from Lebanon struck a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teens in what the military called the deadliest attack on civilians since Oct. 7. It raised fears of a broader regional war between Israel and Hezbollah, which in a rare move denied it was responsible. The White House National Security Council said it was speaking with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts and working on a diplomatic solution to "end all attacks once and for all" in the border area between Israel and Lebanon. Saturday's attack came as Israel and Hamas are negotiating a cease-fire proposal to end the nearly 10-month war in Gaza.
Here is a look at the broader repercussions:
What happened?
On Saturday, a rocket slammed into a soccer field where dozens of children and teens were playing in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, about 12 kilometers south of Lebanon and next to the Syrian border. Twelve were killed and 20 others wounded, according to the Israeli military. "I feel darkness inside and out. Nothing like this happened here," resident Anan Abu Saleh said. "There's no way to explain this. I saw children, I don't want to say what I saw, but it's horrible, really horrible. We need more security." On Sunday, the coffins passed through a crowd of thousands. Photos of the youth were displayed at a roundabout as residents lit candles at dusk. The Israeli military said it was investigating why the rocket wasn't intercepted and questioned whether it would have been possible due to its short journey and short reaction time. A bomb shelter was next to the blackened field, steps away.
The Druze are a religious sect that began as an offshoot of Shiite Islam and has communities in Israel, Syria and Lebanon. There are about 25,000 Druze in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, according to Yusri Hazran of the Hebrew University. The Druze are considered among Israel's most loyal citizens, although those in the Golan Heights have a more fraught relationship with authorities. Israel captured the Golan, a strategic plateau, from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it in 1981. Much of the international community considers the area to be occupied territory. While Druze leaders there profess allegiance to Syria, relations with Israel are normally good. "Big anger, big, big. I have no feelings that I can explain to you," said Hassan Shakir, a Majdal Shams resident.
What could this mean for a wider war?
Attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border have simmered below the threshold of all-out war since the start of the conflict in Gaza. But the toll and young victims in Saturday's attack could push Israel to respond more severely. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was weighing options Sunday after hurrying home from the U.S. and warning that Hezbollah "will pay a heavy price for this attack, one that it has not paid so far." The security Cabinet authorized him and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to decide how and when to respond. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said "every indication" showed the rocket came from Hezbollah. The Israeli military's Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said an Iranian-made Falaq rocket with a 53-kilogram warhead belonging to Hezbollah was fired. Hezbollah began firing at Israel the day after Hamas' attack on Oct. 7. Israel responded by targeting what it calls Hezbollah's military infrastructure with airstrikes and drones. Most attacks have been confined to border areas, though Israel has assassinated Hezbollah and Hamas leadership farther north in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of people along the border have evacuated. Since early October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 500 people, including around 90 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed. Hezbollah has far superior firepower than Hamas. Igniting a war in Israel's north while it's engaged in Gaza would overburden the military, Barak Ben-Zur, a researcher at the International Institute of Counter-Terrorism, told journalists. In Lebanon, some prepared for more fire from Israel. Lebanon's national airline announced it postponed the Beirut arrival of seven flights until Monday morning, without saying why. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had urgent calls with diplomats and politicians, his office said. "I doubt that there will be a strike, but nothing is far-fetched when it comes to the enemy," said Abdallah Dalal, a resident of the Lebanese border village of Shebaa. Israeli officials said the rocket was fired nearby. Any conflict could bring in Iran, which warned Israel that a strong reaction would lead to "unprecedented consequences." Iran and Israel's shadow war burst into the open in April, when Iran launched 300 missiles and drones at Israel, most of them intercepted, in response to the killing of an Iranian general.The United Nations secretary-general called for maximum restraint by all parties.
How could this impact the war in Gaza?
Officials from the United States, Egypt and Qatar were meeting Sunday with Israeli officials in Rome in the latest push for a cease-fire deal in Gaza. The head of Israel's Mossad spy agency, David Barnea, returned home and negotiations will continue in the coming days, Netanyahu's office said. An Egyptian official said the attack in the Golan Heights could give urgency to negotiations. "Both fronts are connected," he said. "A cease-fire in Gaza will lead to a cease-fire with Hezbollah." The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media. In a statement, the Egyptian foreign ministry called on all influential international players to "intervene immediately to spare the peoples of the region further disastrous consequences of the expansion of the conflict."

Druze town buries 12th victim of Golan Heights rocket fire
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Hundreds gathered Monday in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams for the funeral of the last of 12 youths killed by rocket fire. Eleven-year-old Guevara Ibrahim was initially reported missing after Saturday's strike that hit a football pitch in the Druze Arab town, but has later been confirmed dead. The 11 others killed in the attack, blamed by Israel and the U.S. on Lebanon's Hezbollah, were all aged 10 to 16 and laid to rest in ceremonies on Sunday. An AFP photographer in Majdal Shams said more than 1,000 people, mostly members of the Druze community, had arrived for Ibrahim's funeral on Monday. The Israeli military called the rocket strike "the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians" since the October 7 attack by Palestinian militants that triggered the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. Many residents of Majdal Shams however have not accepted Israeli nationality since Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967. Following the conquest of about two-thirds of the Golan plateau during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel in 1981 annexed the area in a move not recognized by the international community, with the exception of the United States since 2019. The Golan Druze largely identify as Syrian while having resident status, rather than citizenship, in Israel. According to the Israeli military, Majdal Shams was hit Saturday with an Iranian-made rocket carrying a 50-kilogram warhead. Hezbollah, which has traded regular cross-border fire with Israeli forces since the Gaza war began in early October, has denied responsibility for the strike, though it claimed multiple attacks on Israeli military positions that day. Hezbollah says its actions against Israeli forces are in support of Palestinians in Gaza and its ally, militant group Hamas. The violence on the Israel-Lebanon border has killed at least 527 people on the Lebanese side, according to an AFP tally. Most of the dead have been fighters, but the toll includes at least 104 civilians. On the Israeli side, including on the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed according to Israel's army.

Lufthansa, Air France halt Beirut flights as Israel tensions rise
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Airlines suspended flights to Lebanon on Monday as diplomatic efforts were underway to contain soaring tensions between Hezbollah and Israel after deadly rocket fire in the annexed Golan Heights. Several airlines including Lufthansa, Air France and Transavia announced Monday the suspension of their Beirut lines. German airline group Lufthansa said Monday it had suspend its services to Beirut until August 5 after Israel threatened reprisals for the deadly Majdal Shams strike. The group's flights to Lebanon were cancelled as a result of "current developments in the Middle East", a Lufthansa spokesman told AFP. Lebanon's Middle East Airlines had rescheduled a number of flights on Sunday and Monday, citing "technical reasons related to the distribution of (aircraft) insurance risks". Air France and low-cost carrier Transavia France also suspended their flights between Paris and Beirut due to the "security situation" in Lebanon, a spokesman for the companies said Monday.But in central Beirut, shop owner Muhammad Saad, 53, said life went on as usual. "We're already at war, what more could happen?" he told AFP. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the Majdal Shams rocket attack, though the group claimed multiple strikes on Israeli military positions that day. During a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel struck Beirut airport, Lebanon's only international facility.

Flurry of diplomatic activity in Lebanon as UK 'condemns' Golan attack
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Monday saw a flurry of diplomatic activity, as caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati held "intensive diplomatic contacts," including a call with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who “renewed the call on all parties to exercise restraint to prevent escalation,” Mikati’s office said in a statement. Lammy posted on social media site X that he had called Mikati “to express my concern at escalating tension and welcomed the Government of Lebanon’s statement urging for cessation of all violence.”“We both agreed that widening of conflict in the region is in nobody’s interest,” he said. The UK condemned the strike on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, which killed 12 people, and said it was "deeply concerned about the risk of further escalation and destabilization". In his statement on X, Lammy also said the UK's new Labour government has been clear that Lebanon's Hezbollah movement "must cease their attacks" on Israel. Also on Monday, Hezbollah’s head of foreign relations, Ammar Moussawi, met with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, according to a Lebanese diplomat and a Hezbollah official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly on the matter. The diplomatic official said there had also been a flurry of calls by Amos Hochstein, a senior advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden who frequently handles delicate negotiations in Lebanon, attempting to ensure that the Israeli retaliation and Hezbollah’s response would not spiral into an all-out war. Israel has accused Hezbollah of firing the rocket that hit a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams over the weekend. Hezbollah denied responsibility, a rare move by the militant group.

Lebanon urges international probe into deadly Golan strike
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Lebanon has called for an international investigation into a strike that killed 12 people including children on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, warning against a large-scale retaliation. The Israeli military said that an Iranian-made rocket that Lebanon's Hezbollah group fired on Saturday hit a football field in Majdal Shams, a Druze Arab town, killing children and teenagers who were playing there. Hezbollah, which claimed multiple attacks on Israeli military positions during the day, has denied it was behind the Majdal Shams strike, saying it had "no connection" to the incident. In a statement on X, Lebanon's Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib urged for an "international investigation or a meeting of the tripartite committee held through UNIFIL to know the truth" about who was responsible for the attack. The tripartite committee refers to military officials from Lebanon and Israel, which are technically at war, together with peacekeepers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Bou Habib, in a statement issued by the foreign ministry, said he "expected the Majdal Shams strike was carried out by other organizations or was an Israeli mistake or a mistake by Hezbollah".
He insisted the Lebanese group targets "only military" positions and ruled out them carrying out an intentional attack on civilians in Majdal Shams. The statement, carried by the state-run National News Agency, said that Bou Habib also "called for the complete and comprehensive application" of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and called for the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers to be the only armed forces deployed in south Lebanon. "A large attack by Israel on Lebanon will lead to a deterioration of the regional situation and will spark regional war," Bou Habib warned, according to the statement. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday vowed to "hit the enemy hard" following the Majdal Shams strike, while Iran warned Israel that any new military "adventures" in Lebanon could lead to "unforeseen consequences".
Hezbollah says it has been acting in support of Gazans and ally Hamas with its cross-border strikes, which began the day after the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on southern Israel which sparked the war in Gaza. The group on Sunday afternoon announced its first attack on an Israeli position since the day before, saying it also came "in response to enemy attacks" on south Lebanon villages and homes. The cross-border violence since October has killed at least 527 people in Lebanon according to an AFP tally, most of them fighters but also including 104 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed, according to Israeli authorities.

Lufthansa, Air France halt Beirut flights as Israel tensions rise
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Airlines suspended flights to Lebanon on Monday as diplomatic efforts were underway to contain soaring tensions between Hezbollah and Israel after deadly rocket fire in the annexed Golan Heights. Several airlines including Lufthansa, Air France and Transavia announced Monday the suspension of their Beirut lines. German airline group Lufthansa said Monday it had suspend its services to Beirut until August 5 after Israel threatened reprisals for the deadly Majdal Shams strike. The group's flights to Lebanon were cancelled as a result of "current developments in the Middle East", a Lufthansa spokesman told AFP.
Lebanon's Middle East Airlines had rescheduled a number of flights on Sunday and Monday, citing "technical reasons related to the distribution of (aircraft) insurance risks". Air France and low-cost carrier Transavia France also suspended their flights between Paris and Beirut due to the "security situation" in Lebanon, a spokesman for the companies said Monday. But in central Beirut, shop owner Muhammad Saad, 53, said life went on as usual. "We're already at war, what more could happen?" he told AFP. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the Majdal Shams rocket attack, though the group claimed multiple strikes on Israeli military positions that day. During a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel struck Beirut airport, Lebanon's only international facility.

Middle East Airlines reschedules flights
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Lebanon's Middle East Airlines said in a statement that it had rescheduled a number of flights on Sunday and Monday, citing "technical reasons related to the distribution of (aircraft) insurance risks". In October, the carrier said it was relocating some planes abroad in light of regional developments. During a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel struck Beirut airport, Lebanon's only international facility.

UN chief condemns strike on Golan Heights
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has condemned a strike that killed 12 young people in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. Calling on all parties to "exercise maximum restraint," Guterres sent his "deepest condolences to the families of those who lost their lives" while adding that "civilians, and children in particular, should not continue to bear the burden of the horrific violence plaguing the region," according to a statement by the office of his spokesperson.

White House says Hezbollah behind 'horrific' Golan Heights strike
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
The White House has said that rocket fire that killed 12 young people in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights was "conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah." Calling the attack "horrific," National Security Council Spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said in a statement Sunday that "it was their rocket, and launched from an area they control. It should be universally condemned." The Israeli military has said the youths were struck on Saturday by an Iranian-made rocket carrying a 50-kilogram warhead that Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah group fired at a football field in the Druze Arab town of Majdal Shams.
"Our support for Israel's security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah," Watson said."We have been in continuous discussions with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts since the horrific attack," she added. Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, also condemned the attack in language similar to that used by the White House. Harris "has been briefed and is closely monitoring Hezbollah's horrific attack on a soccer field in Majdal Shams," her NSC advisor Phil Gordon wrote on X. "She condemns this horrific attack and mourns for all those killed and wounded." Hezbollah has said it had no connection to the incident. The group has described its past cross-border fire as an act of support for Gaza since October 7. The violence since then has killed at least 527 people in Lebanon, according to an AFP tally, most of them fighters but also including 104 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed in the cross-border action, according to Israeli authorities.

Netanyahu says Hezbollah will pay heavy price for Majdal Shams strike
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
A strike that killed 12 young people in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, has prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to return early from the United States. Israel blamed Lebanon's Hezbollah for firing a Falaq-1 Iranian rocket but the Iran-backed group said it had "no connection" to the incident. Upon arrival Netanyahu went immediately into a security cabinet meeting, his office said. "Hezbollah will pay a heavy price, a price it has not paid before", he said. After the meeting, his office said: "The members of the cabinet authorized the prime minister and the defense minister to decide on the manner and timing of the response against the Hezbollah terrorist organization." It offered no further details. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant earlier Sunday visited the scene and vowed Israel would "hit the enemy hard".Israel's foreign ministry said Hezbollah had "crossed all red lines". In expectation of Israel's retaliation, Hezbollah evacuated several positions close to the border and in eastern Lebanon, a source close to the group said. Israel's military said later Sunday it had hit Hezbollah targets "both deep inside Lebanese territory and in southern Lebanon". The strike on Majdal Shams hit a football pitch and killed children who local authorities said were aged 10 to 16.
Is Hezbollah behind the strike?
Riad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said the position Hezbollah said it targeted is about 2.4 kilometers from the town, putting it "within margin of error" of the inaccurate rockets. But "the possibility of a misfire" from an Israeli air-defense missile could not be ruled out and there should be an independent investigation, he added. The rocket fire on Majdal Shams came after an Israeli strike killed four Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon, prompting the militant group to launch retaliatory rocket attacks against the Golan and northern Israel.The White House said the rocket launch was  "conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah", adding that "it was their rocket and launched from an area they control". The U.N. special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) chief Aroldo Lazaro said in a joint statement that intensifying exchanges of fire "could ignite a wider conflagration that would engulf the entire region in a catastrophe beyond belief". Lebanon urged "an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts", later calling for an "international investigation" into the strike.
Gaza ceasefire effort
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani warned that "any ignorant action of the Zionist regime can lead to the broadening of the scope of instability, insecurity and war in the region". Israel's foreign ministry called the incident in Majdal Shams a "massacre", accusing Hezbollah of deliberately targeting civilians. Many residents of the Druze town have not accepted Israeli nationality since Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967. Syria denounced Israel's "false accusations" against Hezbollah and said Israel was looking for "pretexts to enlarge its aggression". Cross-border fire since October has killed at least 527 people in Lebanon, according to an AFP tally. Most of the dead have been fighters but the toll includes at least 104 civilians.According to Israel's army, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed so far in northern Israel. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has said that if a ceasefire was reached in Gaza, his movement would stop cross-border attacks. Blinken said the best way to prevent the Gaza conflict from escalating "is to get the ceasefire in Gaza that we're working so hard on". Months of effort have failed to secure a deal, but Egyptian state-linked media said talks were to take place Sunday in Rome.

Hezbollah evacuates positions ahead of expected Israel raids
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Hezbollah has evacuated positions in south and east Lebanon after Israeli threats of reprisals for a deadly strike on the annexed Golan Heights, a source close to the group said. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed to "hit the enemy hard" a day after rocket fire from Lebanon killed 12 minors in Majdal Shams, again raisings fears that the war in Gaza will spread. Israel blamed Lebanon's Hezbollah movement for firing a Falaq-1 Iranian rocket but the Iran-backed group -- which has regularly targeted Israeli military positions -- said it had "no connection" to the incident.
"Hezbollah has evacuated some positions in the south and in the Bekaa valley that it thinks could be a target for Israel," the source close to the group told AFP Sunday, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media.
Hezbollah has a strong presence in east Lebanon's Bekaa valley, which borders Syria, and in south Lebanon, where it has been launching near daily attacks on Israeli positions since October in support of ally Hamas. The cross-border exchanges of fire have largely been limited to the border area, but Israel has repeatedly struck deep inside Lebanon. Hezbollah is also deployed in Syria, where for years it has been fighting in support of President Bashar al-Assad in his country's civil war. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, said pro-Iran groups and Hezbollah-affiliated fighters have "evacuated their positions" south of the capital and in the Damascus countryside, as well as in parts of the Syrian-controlled Golan Heights, in anticipation of "potential Israeli airstrikes". Hezbollah had already abandoned positions in Syria in early June after Israeli raids, according to the Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of sources on the ground. Since Syria's civil war erupted in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in the country, mainly targeting army positions and Iran-backed fighters, including from Hezbollah. The raids also seek to cut off Hezbollah supply routes to Lebanon. Israeli authorities rarely comment on individual strikes in Syria, but have repeatedly said they will not allow arch-enemy Iran to expand its presence there. Israel's raids on Syria intensified after Palestinian militant group Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel sparked war in the Gaza Strip, then eased after an April 1 strike blamed on Israel hit the Iranian consular building in Damascus. That strike prompted Iran to launch a first-ever direct missile and drone attack against Israel on April 13-14, sending regional tensions skyrocketing. The cross-border violence since October has killed at least 527 people in Lebanon according to an AFP tally, most of them fighters but also including 104 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed, according to Israeli authorities. Israeli strikes have killed at least 25 Hezbollah fighters in Syria since the Gaza war erupted, according to an AFP tally.

Iran warns of serious consequences for any Israeli hit on Lebanon
Reuters/July 29, 2024
Any possible Israeli attack on Lebanon will have serious consequences for Israel, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a phone call with French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, Iran's state media reported on Monday. Israeli authorities blamed Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah for a rocket attack that hit a football ground in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Saturday, killing 12 children and teenagers, and vowed to inflict a heavy response. Hezbollah denied any responsibility for the strike. "Any possible Israeli attack on Lebanon will have serious consequences for Israel," Pezeshkian was quoted by Iranian state media as saying. "We are willing to improve our relations with France on the basis of mutual trust," Pezeshkian added in his conversation with Macron. Macron spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, the French presidency said, as Paris seeks to prevent a broader escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. The presidency said Macron had reminded Netanyahu that France was fully committed to doing "everything to avoid a new escalation in the region by passing messages to all parties involved in the conflict".

Flurry of diplomatic activity in Lebanon as UK 'condemns' Golan attack
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Monday saw a flurry of diplomatic activity, as caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati held "intensive diplomatic contacts," including a call with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who “renewed the call on all parties to exercise restraint to prevent escalation,” Mikati’s office said in a statement. Lammy posted on social media site X that he had called Mikati “to express my concern at escalating tension and welcomed the Government of Lebanon’s statement urging for cessation of all violence.” “We both agreed that widening of conflict in the region is in nobody’s interest,” he said. The UK condemned the strike on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, which killed 12 people, and said it was "deeply concerned about the risk of further escalation and destabilization".In his statement on X, Lammy also said the UK's new Labour government has been clear that Lebanon's Hezbollah movement "must cease their attacks" on Israel. Also on Monday, Hezbollah’s head of foreign relations, Ammar Moussawi, met with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, according to a Lebanese diplomat and a Hezbollah official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly on the matter. The diplomatic official said there had also been a flurry of calls by Amos Hochstein, a senior advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden who frequently handles delicate negotiations in Lebanon, attempting to ensure that the Israeli retaliation and Hezbollah’s response would not spiral into an all-out war. Israel has accused Hezbollah of firing the rocket that hit a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams over the weekend. Hezbollah denied responsibility, a rare move by the militant group.

The Terrifying Lebanon Scenarios
Jonathan Schanzer/The commentary/July 29/2024
Twelve Israelis were killed in a Hezbollah attack on the Druze village of Majd al-Shams on Saturday. The majority of the dead were children. Hezbollah has attempted to deny responsibility. The Israeli public is not buying it. Israelis of all stripes are demanding action.
The expected Israeli response could very well mark the most serious escalation in the unnamed and unofficial war between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran’s most powerful proxy began attacking Israel on October 8, one day after Hamas (another Iranian proxy) slaughtered 1,200 Israelis. While all eyes have been on Gaza, there can be no doubt that this is a a coordinated two-front effort on the part of Iran’s proxies. Hezbollah has fired thousands of drones, rockets, and missiles at Israel over the past nine months. The group has forced an estimated 100,000 Israeli citizens from their homes.
The Israelis have wanted to respond to Hezbollah since the first weeks of the war. The Biden White House has restrained the Benjamin Netanyahu government. But after today, Team Biden is not likely to restrain the Israelis any longer. It’s also notable that Biden is now a lame duck, which means that he holds considerably less sway over Israel’s military calculus.
Without knowing exactly what Israel’s response might be, here are some potential scenarios we might expect. Israel Responds, Hezbollah Absorbs: While there could be some tough hours or days ahead, there is a chance that Hezbollah restrains itself. Perhaps more accurately, there is a chance that Iran restrains Hezbollah. This would be the rational decision. But it would require Tehran and its most powerful proxy to believe that they would pay a price for any further escalation. While this is certainly possible, it seems unlikely. Thanks to weak American responses after nine months of Iranian aggression, and an Israeli government that has yet to make a consequential decision related to the undeclared war in the north, the Iranian axis is not deterred.
A Hostage Deal Dials Everything Back: We continue to hear about efforts by the CIA, Mossad, Egyptian intelligence, and the Hamas-financing government of Qatar to reach a hostage deal. Hezbollah has indicated for months that if there is a ceasefire in Gaza—one that results from a hostage deal or is struck under other terms—the group would cease firing upon Israel. A deal is far from certain, and even if one is reached, it is likely still several weeks away. Thus, the chances of a hostage deal dialing back a wider war in the north seems unlikely right now.
Amos Hochstein Prevails: For the last several months, the White House has deployed energy envoy Amos Hochstein to try to reach a diplomatic deal between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah to prevent a wider war. Hochstein brokered a 2022 maritime gas deal between Israel and Lebanon that yielded Lebanon the Qana gas field. That deal was supposed to prevent escalations like the one we are witnessing now. But with the benefit of hindsight, Hochstein’s effort should be seen for what it is: a failed attempt to appease Hezbollah. His current stab at haggling with the government of Lebanon with the goal of convincing Hezbollah to withdraw from south Lebanon to territory north of the Litani River and halting its aggression, are ongoing. But the Lebanese regime is a caretaker government that wields no power in a failing state controlled by Hezbollah. The terms that Hochstein is trying to reach are already spelled out in UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which should have been implemented nearly two decades ago. Iran and Hezbollah have refused. The Lebanese government has not even tried to change the equation. And the West has stood by and watched. Of course, the fear of a devastating war could yield a situation in which cooler heads prevail. But it’s hard to believe that Hochstein has the answers.
A Limited War in Southern Lebanon: The conventional wisdom holds that neither Hezbollah nor Israel want a full-blown conflagration, given the devastation that such a war would likely leave in its wake. This is not wrong. The estimates suggest that thousands of Lebanese and Israeli citizens would die, with billions of dollars of damage incurred on both sides. This is why my Lebanese friends are convinced that there would be some sort of gentleman’s agreement in the war to come. Israel would only strike Hezbollah assets and infrastructure south of the Litani River, and Hezbollah would only strike Israeli assets in the country’s northern third. Unfortunately, the likelihood is low that both sides willingly exercise restraint in the event of an escalation. This is simply not how wars work—particularly between these two foes. Their wars have long been marked by escalation through miscalculation.
A Big War in the North: This may be the most likely scenario if things escalate quickly. And it’s not pretty. Hezbollah has 200,000 rockets in its arsenal, thousands of drones, and an estimated 1,500 precision guided munitions that can strike military assets or even strategic infrastructure in Israel. To be clear: skyscrapers could fall. Hezbollah’s Radwan forces are highly trained and lethal; they have trained alongside the Russian and Iranian militaries. They could try to cross into Israel to conquer Israeli towns. The Israelis know what’s coming. They have plans to deal with all of it, and the future of Lebanon looks bleak as a result. But the Israeli forces are tired from nine months of fighting, the nation’s arsenal is depleted to one extent or another from the Gaza war, and there are concerns that this new war could be long and brutal. Israeli officials say privately that they would prefer to wait a year for this war. Hezbollah knows this. So does Iran. And they may believe that a war right now would be one they have the best chance of winning. This is likely yet another grave miscalculation on the part of the Iranian Axis—once again they will have started a conflagration Israel cannot afford not to win—and one that could have grave consequences for the region.
The Ring of Fire: There are no guarantees that a war in the north stays in the north. It’s not often acknowledged, but Israel is currently at war on no less than seven fronts. Iranian proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen continue to attack Israel with various levels of intensity. And don’t forget that the Iranian regime fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in mid-April. The activation of this “ring of fire” might be more likely if Hezbollah finds itself on the ropes in a war with Israel. Indeed, Iran is not likely to simply watch from afar if its most valued proxy is in mortal danger. It’s a fair bet that under this scenario, Israel would get help from British, US, Jordanian and Saudi missile defense—as we witnessed when Iran attacked Israel. But that may be of little consolation if there is a steady stream of incoming projectiles from across the Middle East. To be clear, this scenario is a regional war.
Nuclear Breakout: There is a school of thought in Israel which holds that there is only one reason Iran would deploy its most powerful proxy to wage war against Israel. Specifically, Hezbollah would only engage in a fight to the finish with Israel to prevent Israel from striking Iran as it endeavors to dash to a nuclear bomb. We continue to hear estimates from various agencies and officials that Iran is weeks away from what it needs to build a bomb. Assessing Iran’s calculus for such a dangerous move is not simple. But such a scenario cannot be dismissed.
The above scenarios are not exhaustive. But they provide a sense of the very, very dangerous moment at which the Middle East currently stands. There are still opportunities to prevent an escalation. Most of them hinge on Iran and Hezbollah standing down. And there is scant evidence to suggest that this is their inclination at the moment.
https://www.commentary.org/jonathan-schanzer/the-terrifying-lebanon-scenarios/

AMCD Condemns Hezbollah Rocket Attack on Israeli Playground and Calls for UNSCR 1559 Implementation
July 29, 2024
Twelve children were killed when Hezbollah launched a rocket attack on a soccer field where children were playing on Sunday afternoon in the Israeli Druze village of Majdal Shams. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed Hezbollah will “pay a heavy price,” for the murder of these innocents.
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy condemns Hezbollah unequivocally and demands the full imposition of United Nations Security Council resolution 1559 which calls for the disarming and disbanding of this well-armed Iranian proxy militia (Hezbollah) in Lebanon. Resolution 1559 was passed in 2004, and Resolution 1701 was passed in 2006. The Lebanese government failed to implement them. Hezbollah has only grown stronger during the interim and is now in de facto control of the Lebanese government. Seventy percent of the Lebanese people reject Hezbollah and want it disarmed.
“These resolutions should have been vigorously enforced as soon as they were passed,” said AMCD co-chair Tom Harb. “I’m afraid this exposes the inability of the UN to enforce the resolutions it passes. At this point, according to Hezbollah propaganda, if a serious effort were made to disarm Hezbollah, it would plunge Lebanon into another civil war. On the contrary, this is the time to have an international effort to disarm Hezbollah and avoid a regional conflict”
“It is unbelievable that a jihadi terrorist organization has so thoroughly infiltrated all levels of the Lebanese government and armed forces right under the nose of the United Nations,” added AMCD co-chair John Hajjar. “The UN has had observers and peacekeepers (UNIFIL) in Lebanon since the end of the Lebanese Civil War in 1978, and all they have done is watch Hezbollah grow stronger and have done next to nothing to prevent it.”
AMCD believes that if Hezbollah is not vigorously suppressed soon, the once-beautiful country of Lebanon will turn into another failed terrorist state. We understand Israel must respond to this latest atrocity, and we pray for the people of Lebanon, while we hope for the destruction of Iran’s terrorist proxy, Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s Hassan makes history with win over Eubanks
Reuters/July 29, 2024
PARIS: Benjamin Hassan secured a landmark victory on Sunday as he became the first Lebanon player to win a match in an Olympic tennis event, stunning American Christopher Eubanks. Germany-born Hassan, ranked 170th in the world, won 6-4 6-2 for one of the best victories of his career to fully vindicate being handed a Universality place by the ITF. “I am unbelievably happy. We just enjoy it from the whole team. We are really proud and I'm also proud of myself,” the 29-year-old told reporters. “It was an unbelievable atmosphere. I was just trying to be calm because I didn’t want to waste too much energy. When I won I could let it all out.”Hassan did not even set about becoming a professional until the age of 22, having previously played just for fun. But now he is living the dream as an Olympian and has a second-round clash against Argentina’s Sebastian Baez to look forward to.
He has thrown himself into life in the athletes village, amassing quite a collection of pins. “I think the most special one is Japan because I'm a huge fan of Japan. I like watching a lot of animated mangas,” he said. Hassan was not the only Lebanon player in the draw as Hady Habib lost to French Open champion Carlos Alcaraz on Saturday Hassan and Habib also lost in the doubles on Sunday.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 29-30/2024
Netanyahu vows 'severe' response as Majdal Shams residents protest his visit
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Some residents of the Golan Heights village where a rocket killed 12 youths over the weekend protested Monday the visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials expressing condolences. Netanyahu is weighing Israel's response to the attack it blames on Hezbollah, which in a rare move has denied having a role. The prime minister laid a wreath, expressed his shock and said the local Druze community has paid a heavy price. He met with representatives of victims' families. But after Netanyahu left the area of the soccer field where the rocket hit, some people ran there, threw away the wreath and protested the political use of the tragedy. Relatives and friends of the dead cried over photos of the children and teens that had been placed there. They said they want the war to end. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged cross-border fire since Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack that sparked the war in Gaza. The weekend attack in Majdal Shams again raised concerns about a wider regional war. Netanyahu, during his visit, vowed Israel would deliver a "severe response". "These children are our children ... The State of Israel will not, and cannot, let this pass. Our response will come and it will be severe," Netanyahu said at the site of the attack, according to a statement issued by his office.

Netanyahu vows retaliation against Hezbollah after weekend strike as US warns against escalation
Leo Correa And Alon Bernstein/MAJDAL SHAMS, Golan Heights (AP)/Mon, July 29, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah amid furious diplomatic efforts to prevent a spiral into regional war following a weekend rocket strike that killed 12 children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel has blamed Hezbollah for Saturday evening’s rocket from Lebanon that slammed into a soccer field where the children were playing in the mainly Druze town of Majdal Shams. In an unusual move, Hezbollah denied any role in the strike. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Monday, emphasizing the “importance of preventing escalation” and discussing efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to months of conflict. Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah have exchanged fire almost daily over the border since the war in Gaza erupted in October. Each side has seemed intent on avoiding an escalation that would bring their full firepower against each other. But the exchanges have mounted, and the latest strike threatened reprisals and counter-reprisals that could spiral into full-fledged war. Early Monday, Israeli strikes hit a motorcycle in Lebanon near the border, killing two people and wounding three others, Lebanese state media said. The strikes, mirroring the pace of the daily cross-border fire, did not appear to be Israel’s retaliation for Saturday’s attack.
Thousands of mourners laid to rest on Monday the 12th victim of the strike. The body of 11-year-old Guevara Ibrahim was carried through the streets of Majdal Shams in a procession of black-clad mourners. Netanyahu spoke as he visited the soccer field in Majdal Shams and met with leaders of the Druze community. “These children are our children, they are the children of all of us,” he said as officials laid a wreath on the field. “The state of Israel will not and cannot overlook this. Our response will come, and it will be severe,” he said, adding that the rocket was fired by Hezbollah.
Nearby, around 300 friends, supporters and relatives of the slain children protested against Netanyahu’s visit, shouting that he was exploiting the bloodshed for political gain and calling for an end to the violence. Some held up pictures of the children, saying they wanted no more deaths. After Netanyahu left, some rushed onto the soccer field and tore down the wreath. Weeping relatives held up toys left by the children on the field. The Druze of the Golan Heights have long had a fraught relationship with Israel since it captured the territory from Syria in the 1967 war and later annexed it. Some Druze have Israeli citizenship, and ties with Israeli society have grown over the years. But many still have sympathies for Syria and have rejected Israeli annexation. Earlier in the day, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also visited the town, saying Hezbollah will “pay a price” for the attack. He did not elaborate, saying only, “We will let actions speak for themselves.” Israel’s military says Hezbollah fired an Iranian-made Falaq rocket with a 53-kilogram (117-pound) warhead.
Hezbollah has started moving precision-guided missiles for use if needed, an official with a Lebanese group told The Associated Press, without elaborating on where they are being moved. The official said Hezbollah’s stance has not changed and it does not want a full-blown war with Israel, but if war breaks out it will fight without limits. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military activities.
Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire since Oct. 8, a day after Hamas militants stormed into southern Israel. Hezbollah has said it is showing its support for the Palestinian group. More than 500 people, including 90 civilians, have been killed in Lebanon, as have 22 soldiers and 25 civilians on the Israeli side. Tens of thousands have evacuated their homes on both sides of the border. The U.S. and France for months have pushed for a negotiated agreement between Hezbollah and Israel to quieten the border and allow the return of residents. The White House National Security Council said it was speaking with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts and working on a diplomatic solution to “end all attacks once and for all” in the border area. Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden who frequently handles delicate negotiations in Lebanon, has been making a flurry of calls trying to contain the situation, a Lebanese diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorize to talk to the press on the issue. An outright war between Israel and Hezbollah could bring intense destruction. Hezbollah has far superior firepower than Hamas, with an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles, according to Israeli estimates. The last time they went to war, in 2006, Israel inflicted massive damage in Lebanon with a bombing campaign in retaliation for a cross-border Hezbollah attack. The death and destruction were so great, Hezbollah has been under intense pressure from the Lebanese ever since not to trigger a repeated war with Israel. Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati spoke to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. “We both agreed that widening of conflict in the region is in nobody’s interest,” Lammy said in a post on the social media site X.

The Israel-Hezbollah war that no one wants could finally blow up
Analysis by Elliott Gotkine, CNN/July 29, 2024
‘A taunting by Hezbollah’: Retired US general reacts to Golan Heights attackScroll back up to restore default view. Back in May, Amos Hochstein, US President Joe Biden’s point-man for keeping a lid on tensions between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, spoke in a webinar. “What I worry about every single day,” he said, “is that a miscalculation or an accident… hits a bus full of children, or hits another kind of civilian target, that could force the political system in either country to retaliate in a way that slides us into war. Even though both sides probably understand that a fuller or deeper-scale war is in neither side’s interest.” The equivalent of that bus came on Saturday evening in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. A rocket, which Israel says was launched by Hezbollah from Shebaa in southern Lebanon, slammed into a soccer pitch in the Druze town of Majdal Shams. Twelve children, ranging in age from 10 to 16, were killed while taking part in a training session. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the strike. Will Hochstein’s fear of a fuller-scale war now also come to pass? If Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, is to be believed, it probably will. “We are approaching the moment of an all-out war against Hezbollah,” he said in an Israeli television interview on Saturday evening. “The response to this event will be accordingly.” The United States has apparently blessed retaliatory action, to some degree. “We stand by Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken, before adding that the US did not want to “see the conflict escalate.”
The response, so far, has been relatively timid. More strikes will probably follow. “We’re fed up with lofty rhetoric and hollow words accompanied by feeble action,” former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told CNN. “The only way to stop all of this, the only way to deter our enemies from hitting us… is to fight back and to hit them. There’s no other way.” For months now, the international community has been trying to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. With Iran’s strongest proxy estimated to have at least 150,000 missiles and rockets pointing south, the fear is of a war that would devastate Lebanon, and do serious damage to Israel. Moreover, as Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN, “it has the potential to create a situation that we have never seen in this region: a major regional war, which could draw in the Gulf”. He warns it could also lead to direct confrontation between the United States and Iran.
And yet, over the past near-10 months of fighting, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have always pulled back from what appeared to be the brink. In January, Israel took out a senior Hamas leader in Beirut. All-out war failed to materialise. In April, Israel killed a top commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRCHG) in Damascus. In response, Iran launched unprecedented strikes on Israel. All-out war failed to materialise. The status quo, of course, can’t continue either. Tens of thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes. Large swathes of northern Israel are like ghost towns. A similar picture plays out in southern Lebanon. The best way to avoid all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, says Blinken, is to get a ceasefire in Gaza. Talks aimed at achieving that resume on Sunday. But that would only be a short-term fix. Israel wants to remove the Hezbollah threat entirely, moving it back to the Litani River, in accordance with the UN Security Council Resolution that ended the last major war between the two in 2006. “If the world doesn’t get Hezbollah away from the border, Israel will do it,” said former Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz in December. And so despite the bombast, domestic pressures, the fears and the escalations, the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues to simmer rather than boil over. No one seems to want this war. But as Hochstein warned in that same webinar: “Wars have started historically around the world even when leaders didn’t want them, because they had no choice.”

Druze town buries 12th victim of Golan Heights rocket fire
Agence France Presse/July 29/2024
Hundreds gathered Monday in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams for the funeral of the last of 12 youths killed by rocket fire. Eleven-year-old Guevara Ibrahim was initially reported missing after Saturday's strike that hit a football pitch in the Druze Arab town, but has later been confirmed dead. The 11 others killed in the attack, blamed by Israel and the U.S. on Lebanon's Hezbollah, were all aged 10 to 16 and laid to rest in ceremonies on Sunday. An AFP photographer in Majdal Shams said more than 1,000 people, mostly members of the Druze community, had arrived for Ibrahim's funeral on Monday. The Israeli military called the rocket strike "the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians" since the October 7 attack by Palestinian militants that triggered the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. Many residents of Majdal Shams however have not accepted Israeli nationality since Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967. Following the conquest of about two-thirds of the Golan plateau during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel in 1981 annexed the area in a move not recognized by the international community, with the exception of the United States since 2019. The Golan Druze largely identify as Syrian while having resident status, rather than citizenship, in Israel. According to the Israeli military, Majdal Shams was hit Saturday with an Iranian-made rocket carrying a 50-kilogram warhead. Hezbollah, which has traded regular cross-border fire with Israeli forces since the Gaza war began in early October, has denied responsibility for the strike, though it claimed multiple attacks on Israeli military positions that day. Hezbollah says its actions against Israeli forces are in support of Palestinians in Gaza and its ally, militant group Hamas. The violence on the Israel-Lebanon border has killed at least 527 people on the Lebanese side, according to an AFP tally. Most of the dead have been fighters, but the toll includes at least 104 civilians. On the Israeli side, including on the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed according to Israel's army.

Israeli protesters enter army base after soldiers held over Gaza detainee abuse
Mark Lowen - BBC News, Jerusalem/July 29, 2024
Israeli far-right protesters have broken into an army base in a show of support for soldiers accused of severely mistreating a Palestinian prisoner there.
Large crowds gathered outside the Sde Teiman compound after Israeli military police entered it to detain the reservists, who are now subject to an official investigation.
Sde Teiman near Beersheba in southern Israel has for months been at the centre of reports of serious abuses against Gazan detainees. On Monday dozens of protesters, including far-right MPs from Israel's governing coalition, burst through the base's gate as others tried to scale the fence, chanting “we will not abandon our friends, certainly not for terrorists”. Some soldiers at the base reportedly used pepper spray against the military police personnel who arrived to detain the reservists. Demonstrators also entered the Beit Lid military base in central Israel where the accused reservists have been taken for questioning. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement strongly condemning the break-in and calling for “an immediate calming of passions”.
The Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, said the investigation into the soldiers’ conduct must be allowed to continue, adding “even in times of anger, the law applies to everyone”. According to local media reports, at least nine Israeli soldiers at the base are accused of abusing the Palestinian detainee, a suspected Hamas fighter who was captured in Gaza. He is said to have been hospitalised after what Israeli media reports describe as serious sexual abuse and injuries to his anus that left him unable to walk. The Israeli military said its advocate general had ordered an inquiry “following suspected substantial abuse of a detainee”. Since the 7 October Hamas attack, Israeli authorities have rounded up and held thousands of Palestinians, often without legal representation. The BBC has previously spoken to medical workers at a field hospital set up in Sde Teiman, who alleged that detainees have been blindfolded, permanently shackled to their beds, and made to wear nappies rather than having access to a toilet. Gazans ‘shackled and blindfolded’ at Israel hospital
Last month, Israel’s Haaretz newspaper published allegations made by a doctor at Sde Teiman that leg amputations had been carried out on two prisoners, because of cuffing injuries. The BBC has not independently verified the claims. Detainees there have told journalists and United Nations officials that they were beaten and attacked. The Israeli Defence Forces have denied systematic abuse. Many Gazans detained by Israel’s army are released without charge after interrogation. Amnesty International this month called on Israel to end the indefinite detention of Gaza Palestinians and what it called "rampant torture" in its prisons. Some Israeli politicians have condemned the arrest of the reservists. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right National Security minister, called their detention “nothing less than shameful”.

How bombing Gaza to rubble created headaches and a tough fight for invading Israeli tanks and troops
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/July 29, 2024
Israeli military surrounds Gaza City as troops prepare to enterScroll back up to restore default view.Israel launched a scorched-earth campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas' October 7 terror attacks. This intense campaign has destroyed large portions of the coastal enclave. Conflict analysts say Israeli soldiers struggled to fight through the rubble in Gaza. Israel's military campaign in Gaza has turned vast swaths of the coastal enclave into ruins, making it extremely difficult for soldiers to operate in the rubble, according to a recently published report. The "rubblization" of the urban battlespace in Gaza caused headaches for armored and infantry elements of the Israel Defense Forces as they sought to maneuver and identify Hamas targets, analysts at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute think tank described in a report that was published earlier this month.
The IDF launched a devastating and widespread bombing campaign of Gaza immediately following Hamas' October 7 massacre in Israel, during which some 1,200 people were killed. That air campaign paved the way for ground forces to move in later to conduct clearing operations.
The bombing campaign — which employed a mix of precision and unguided munitions — combined with intense artillery fire and consistent ground fighting reduced large portions of the Palestinian enclave to rubble.
More than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war so far, according to figures from the local Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its casualty reporting. Looking back on early operations, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, land warfare experts at RUSI, wrote in their review of Israeli operations in Gaza during the fall that "although the IDF made rapid progress during the early break-in, rubblization caused a range of problems."One of the issues that arose was that Israeli tank drivers had a hard time figuring out the depth of a crater left by an explosion while using night vision. Some armored vehicles then drove into holes and got stuck. To make matters worse, the IDF has suffered from tank shortages during its monthlong campaign in Gaza. The destruction in Gaza also turned the battlespace into an "irregular, congested, and complex visual environment," the RUSI conflict analysts said. This made it difficult for ground units to accurately identify and designate Hamas targets. For instance, "forces that had been trained to talk one another onto targets using the windows and floors of a building as reference points struggled to rapidly convey where enemy were to one another in structures that no longer had uniformity," the analysts said. Former US military and intelligence officers warned during the early stages of the Israel-Hamas war that the urban fighting in Gaza would be incredibly complex for the IDF, especially the militant group's notorious tunnel network.
Because the destruction within Gaza was largely the result of the Israeli bombing campaign and artillery fire, the RUSI analysts argued that the IDF should have factored these characteristics into the planning of its ground operations.
"The IDF had persistent challenges with rubblization, both because it created obstructions for movement and degraded the ability to describe the terrain and thus coordinate and control fire," the conflict analysts wrote. "The IDF has concluded that specific training is necessary for what it is terming 'devastated terrain warfare,'" they added. "Specific drills for talking soldiers onto target when looking at irregular terrain must be practiced." The recently released RUSI report only focuses on fall 2023 operations, but the Israeli military campaign has also run into issues this year as well. For example, the IDF has struggled to prevent Hamas from returning to sectors it had already cleared through hard-fought and bloody battles.

Israeli military detains 9 soldiers over alleged abuse of a detainee at a shadowy military facility
Sam Mcneil And Samy Magdy/SDE TEIMAN BASE, Israel (AP)/July 29, 2024
The Israeli military said Monday it was holding nine soldiers for questioning following allegations of “substantial abuse” of a detainee at a shadowy facility where Israel has held Palestinian prisoners throughout the war in Gaza. The military did not disclose additional details surrounding the alleged abuse, saying only that its top legal official had launched a probe. An investigation by The Associated Press and reports by rights groups have exposed abysmal conditions and abuses at the Sde Teiman facility, the country’s largest detention center. A report by the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, earlier this year said that detainees alleged they were subjected to ill-treatment and abuse while in Israeli custody, without specifying the facility. The military has generally denied ill-treatment of detainees. Following the accusations of harsh treatment that prompted a court case, Israel said it was transferring the bulk of Palestinian detainees out of Sde Teiman and upgrading it.
Israeli media reported that military police officers who arrived at Sde Teiman in southern Israel to detain the soldiers were met with protests and scuffles. Later, dozens of protesters who had come to show support for the soldiers burst through the facility's gate, waving Israeli flags and chanting “shame." After the military cleared the protesters, several hundred of them broke into the military base where the nine soldiers were taken for questioning. Video showed a swarm of people scuffling, pushing and shoving with soldiers in the base. Some of the protesters were masked and carried guns. Others called through megaphones for the soldiers' immediate release. Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi condemned the protesters’ break-in at Sde Teiman and said he fully supports the military prosecutors’ investigation into the abuse allegation. “It is precisely these investigations that protect our soldiers in Israel and the world and preserve the values” of the military, he said. Israel has detained thousands of Palestinians since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that sparked the war in Gaza, according to official figures, though hundreds were released after the military determined they were not affiliated with Hamas. Israeli human rights groups say the majority of detainees have at some point passed through Sde Teiman.
The Public Committee Against Torture in Israel said it welcomed the military's investigation but said its claims are of systemic abuse at the facility and not just one case. Israel has long been accused of failing to hold its soldiers accountable for crimes committed against Palestinians. The allegations have intensified during the war in Gaza. Israel says its forces act within military and international law and says it independently investigates any alleged abuses. The detentions of soldiers prompted an outcry among members of Israel’s far-right government, who called the investigation into their conduct an affront to their service. “Our soldiers are not criminals and this despicable pursuit of our soldiers is unacceptable to me,” Yuli Edelstein, a veteran lawmaker from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, wrote on the platform X. The detentions came as international mediators are trying to bring Hamas and Israel to agree to a cease-fire deal that would wind down the war in Gaza and free the remaining 110 hostages held there.
Officials from Egypt and Hamas said Monday that mediators were still working to smooth out sticking points. The officials, who have direct knowledge of the negotiations, said the contentious points include what they called new Israeli demands to maintain a presence in a strip of land on the Gaza-Egypt border known as the Philadelphi corridor, as well as along a highway running across the breadth of the strip, separating Gaza’s south and north. Israel says it needs to control the highway to stop militants from returning to the north when civilians are eventually allowed back. Currently, troops there prevent any returns of the displaced to the north and monitor those fleeing to the south, arresting any they suspect of militant ties.Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media. They said Israel refuses to leave the area between Egypt and Gaza during the cease-fire. They said Israel has linked its forces’ departure from the border corridor to installing underground sensors and an underground wall to monitor any future efforts by Hamas to build tunnels or smuggle weapons.
Officials in Israel did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Israel says Hamas uses tunnels that pass under the corridor to smuggle weapons, although Egypt denies the allegation and says it destroyed many in an earlier crackdown. Israel’s military seized control of the Philadelphi corridor in early May along with the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza when it began its invasion of Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah. The Egyptian official said no agreement has been reached on the corridor and the reopening of Rafah, adding that Egypt and Israel were continuing direct talks on a compromise. White House national security spokesman John Kirby on Monday declined to comment on the reports of Israel hardening its demands. He said that the U.S. administration still believes an agreement remains “close” to being achieved. “There are teams at work right now trying to close these gaps,” Kirby told reporters. “So again, we believe the gaps can be narrowed.” Hamas denounced the Israeli demands in a statement, saying Netanyahu had “returned to the strategy of procrastination, delay, and evasion from reaching an agreement by setting new conditions and demands.” The Hamas official said the group will hand its written response to mediators from Qatar and Egypt in the coming days. Netanyahu's office denied making new demands, saying its calls for control over the border and the highway were “in accordance with the original outline” of the peace deal, though the U.S.-backed outline made no mention of then. “The Hamas leadership is preventing a deal" by seeking changes, it said in a statement. The U.S.-backed plan calls for a three-phase cease-fire starting with a 45-day truce and partial hostage release. During that time, the two sides are to negotiate the second phase, which is supposed to lead to a full hostage release in return for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas is seeking written guarantees that the cease-fire will continue until those talks reach a deal, while Israeli officials have said they want a time limit on the talks. CIA director William Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani and Egypt’s head of intelligence Abbas Kamel met Sunday with Mossad chief David Barnea in Rome to discuss Israel’s latest demands.

Israeli military probes suspected abuse of Palestinian detainee, draws protests
Reuters/July 29, 2024
Israel's military said on Monday it had opened an investigation into suspected abuse of a Palestinian held at a detention camp for prisoners captured during the Gaza war, drawing an outcry from right-wing protesters and politicians. The military said its Advocate General had ordered the inquiry "following suspected substantial abuse of a detainee". It provided no further details. Army Radio said military police had showed up as part of their investigation at the Sde Teiman detention site to question about 10 reserve soldiers suspected of abusing a prisoner captured from an elite unit of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.
Rights groups including the Association for Civil Rights in Israel (ACRI) have alleged serious abuse of detainees at the camp, a former military base in the Negev desert, which Israel has announced will be phased out. The military had previously announced it was investigating allegations of abuse. As the military police arrived at the camp, a number of civilian protesters, including far-right members of parliament, gathered outside, denouncing the investigation of soldiers they said were doing their duty. Some forced their way onto the base. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the break-in and called for calm. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said: "Even in difficult times, the law applies to everyone – nobody may trespass into IDF bases."
PROTECTING 'IDF VALUES'
"We are in the midst of a war, and actions of this type endanger the security of the state," Halevi said in a statement regarding the attempted break-in. "It is precisely these investigations that protect our soldiers in Israel and the world and preserve IDF values."Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a prominent leader of the nationalist-religious bloc in Netanyahu's government and frequent critic of the army command, posted a filmed message on social media platform X saying the soldiers should be treated like heroes, not criminals. Israeli television channels carried footage of some protesters forcing open a gate and pushing their way into the base. A cabinet minister from an ultranationalist party could be seen walking among them. Centrist opposition party Yesh Atid called for the dismissal of the deputy speaker of parliament, who they say took part in the protest and cheered on the demonstrators.
Widespread reports of mistreatment of detainees in Israeli prisons have added to international pressure on Israel over its conduct of the Gaza war, now approaching the start of its 11th month. In May, the U.S. State Department said it was looking into allegations of Israeli abuse of Palestinian detainees.

Berlin calls on Iran and others to prevent Middle East escalation
Reuters/Mon, July 29, 2024
BERLIN- The German government has called on all parties to the Middle East conflict, in particular Iran, to prevent an escalation after a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights killed 12 children and teenagers last week, a spokesperson said on Monday. Berlin "assumes with certainty" that the deadly attack on a football field in the Golan Heights was conducted by Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said during a regular press conference. Recent actions by the Yemen-based Houthi militia, also backed by Iran, had also contributed significantly to instability in the region in recent weeks, he added. The strike over the weekend has raised fears of a wider conflict in the region, where tensions have intensified due to Israel's war in Gaza, which began more than nine months ago. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has talked to several people including her Lebanese counterpart in an effort to "mitigate the situation and prevent it from escalating", the spokesperson said. German citizens in Lebanon, of which there are estimated to be about 1,300, are "urgently advised" to leave the country while still possible, the spokesperson said.
"We are very concerned about the situation of the Germans on the ground and are preparing what needs to be prepared," he added.

Israel foreign minister urges NATO expel Turkey over threat to enter Israel
Reuters/July 29, 2024
Israel's foreign minister urged NATO to expel Turkey on Monday after its President Tayyip Erdogan threatened his country might enter Israel as it had entered Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh in the past. "In light of Turkish President Erdogan's threats to invade Israel and his dangerous rhetoric, Foreign Minister Israel Katz instructed diplomats ... to urgently engage with all NATO members, calling for the condemnation of Turkey and demanding its expulsion from the regional alliance," the ministry said. Erdogan, a fierce critic of Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, said in a speech on Sunday: "We must be very strong so that Israel can't do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them."He did not spell out what sort of intervention he was suggesting. "Erdogan is following in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein and threatening to attack Israel. He should remember what happened there and how it ended," Katz said in the statement. "Turkey, which hosts the Hamas headquarters responsible for terrorist attacks against Israel, has become a member of the Iranian axis of evil, alongside Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen," he said. Once close regional allies, relations between Israel and Turkey have been deteriorating for more than a decade. Bilateral trade weathered many diplomatic storms, reaching billions of dollars a year, but Turkey this month said they would halt all bilateral trade with Israel until the war ends and aid can flow unhindered into Gaza.

Turkish official accuses Israel of targeting Erdogan after he seemed to threaten to invade over Gaza
Associated Press/July 29, 2024
A senior Turkish official on Monday accused the Israeli government of trying to “hide your war crimes” by targeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after he seemingly threatened to invade Israel. Fahrettin Altun, Erdogan’s head of communications, said on social media platform X that those who threaten the president “do so at their own peril." The post criticized Israel's actions against Palestinians in Gaza. In televised remarks to ruling party officials late Sunday, Erdogan had commented on Israel’s military operations. “Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them,” he said. “There is no reason why we cannot do this ... We must be strong so that we can take these steps.” Erdogan, who has been highly critical of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, seemed to be referring to Turkish involvement in Libya’s conflict and to its support of Azerbaijan in fighting Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh. In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Erdogan “follows in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein and threatens to attack Israel.” The post featured photographs of Erdogan and the former Iraqi leader who was executed for crimes against humanity in 2006, Katz added: “Just let him remember what happened there and how it ended.”NATO member Turkey portrays itself as a strong supporter of Palestinian rights and hosts Hamas leaders. Erdogan has described Hamas, which is widely described as a terrorist organization in the West, as a resistance movement.

Trump agrees to be interviewed as part of an investigation into his assassination attempt, FBI says
Eric Tucker/WASHINGTON (AP)/July 29, 2024
Former President Donald Trump has agreed to be interviewed by the FBI as part of an investigation into his attempted assassination in Pennsylvania earlier this month, a special agent said on Monday in disclosing how the gunman prior to the shooting had researched mass attacks and explosive devices. The expected interview with the 2024 Republican presidential nominee is part of the FBI’s standard protocol to speak with victims during the course of its criminal investigations. The FBI said on Friday that Trump was struck in the ear by a bullet or a fragment of one during the July 13 assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. “We want to get his perspective on what he observed,” said Kevin Rojek, the special agent in charge of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office. “It is a standard victim interview like we would do for any other victim of crime, under any other circumstance.”
Trump said in a Fox News interview that aired Monday night that he expected the FBI interview to take place Thursday.Through more than 450 interviews, the FBI has fleshed out a portrait of the gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, that reveals him to be a “highly intelligent” but reclusive 20-year-old whose primary social circle was his family and who maintained few friends and acquaintances throughout his life, Rojek said. Even in online gaming platforms that Crooks visited, his interactions with peers appeared to have been minimal, the FBI said.
His parents have been “extremely cooperative,” with the investigation, Rojek said. They have said they had no advance knowledge of the shooting.
The FBI has not uncovered a motive as to why he chose to target Trump, but investigators believe the shooting was the result of extensive planning, including the purchase under an alias in recent months of chemical precursors that investigators believe were used to create the explosive devices found in his car and his home, and the deployment of a drone about 200 yards (180 meters) from the rally site in the hours before the event. The day before the shooting, the FBI says, Crooks visited a local shooting range and practiced with the gun that would be used in the attack.
After the shooting, authorities found two explosive devices in Crooks’ car and a third in his room at home. The devices recovered from the car, consisting of ammunition boxes filled with explosive material with wires, receivers and ignition devices, were capable of exploding but did not because the receivers were in the “off” position, Rojek said. How much damage they could have done is unclear. The FBI has said that Crooks in the lead-up to the shooting had shown an online interest in prominent public figures, searching online for information about individuals including President Joe Biden. In addition, Rojek said, Crooks looked up information about mass shootings, improvised explosive devices, power plants and the attempted assassination in May of Slovakia's populist Prime Minister Robert Fico.
FBI Director Christopher Wray told Congress last week that on July 6, the day Crooks registered to attend the Trump rally, he googled: “How far away was Oswald from Kennedy?” That's a reference to Lee Harvey Oswald, the shooter who killed President John F. Kennedy from a sniper’s perch in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963. New details, meanwhile, were emerging about law enforcement security lapses and missed communications that preceded the shooting. Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, released text messages from members of the Beaver County Emergency Services Unit that showed how local officers had communicated with each other about a suspicious-behaving man who turned out to be Crooks lurking around more than an hour before the shooting. One text just before 4:30 p.m. describes a man “sitting to the direct right on a picnic table about 50 yards from the exit.”
In another text at 5:38 p.m., an officer tells other counter-snipers: "Kid learning around building we are in. AGR I believe it is. I did see him with a range finder looking towards stage. FYI. If you wanna notify SS snipers to look out. I lost sight of him.” Photographs of Crooks circulated among the group.
AGR is a reference to a complex of buildings that form AGR International Inc, a supplier of automation equipment for the glass and plastic packaging industry. Crooks scaled the roof of one of the buildings of the compound and is believed to have fired eight shots at the rally stage with an AR-style rifle that was purchased legally by his father years earlier. The shots were fired at 6:12 p.m., according to a Beaver County after-action report. Trump said he was “shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear,” and he appeared in the days later with a bandage on the ear. One rallygoer, Corey Comperatore, was killed, and two others were injured. Crooks was shot dead by a Secret Service counter-sniper. In an interview with ABC News, a Beaver County officer who sounded the alarm said that after sending a text alerting others to Crooks, “I assumed that there would be somebody coming out to speak with this individual or find out what's going on.” Another officer told ABC News that the group was supposed to get a face-to-face briefing with the Secret Service counter-snipers but that that never happened.
An email to the Secret Service seeking comment was not immediately returned Monday.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 29-30/2024
Trump's China Tariffs: Extraordinarily Good for America
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/July 29, 2024
This is a contest that the United States cannot lose. In short, trade-surplus countries, such as China, cannot prevail over trade-deficit ones, such as America. Last year, America's merchandise trade deficit with China was $279.4 billion.
That is why, ultimately, China will have to pay the cost of tariffs that Trump — or any other American leader — may impose. Clearly, China's regime knows this. People's Daily, the Communist Party's self-described mouthpiece and therefore the most authoritative publication in China, this month is arguing that America should not raise tariffs.
China steals each year somewhere in the neighborhood of a half trillion dollars of American intellectual property. Critics of tariffs, whether they make valid points or not about increased costs, have an obligation to say how they would eliminate or reduce this criminal practice through other means.
Why should Americans want to decimate the Chinese factory sector? The Communist Party of China sees the U.S. as an enemy and seeks the destruction of the American republic. The struggle, in short, is existential. China's regime cannot wage the fight against America without American money.
So why should Americans supply the cash to their enemy?
Why should Americans want to decimate the Chinese factory sector? The Communist Party of China sees the U.S. as an enemy and seeks the destruction of the American republic. The struggle, in short, is existential. China's regime cannot wage the fight against America without American money. So why should Americans supply the cash to their enemy? (Image source: iStock/Getty Images)
"I can't believe how many people are negative on tariffs that are actually smart people," President Donald Trump told Bloomberg in a June 25 interview. "Economically, they're phenomenal."
Since then, a lot of smart people have rushed to the American media to say that, on the contrary, high tariffs are horrible.
Trump is right. Although these levies would increase costs to American consumers, the costs would not be nearly as great as experts say. Moreover, there are other considerations, both economic and national security, favoring raising tariffs now.
"As president, Trump shattered the long-standing Republican orthodoxy of favoring free trade," Bloomberg noted in commentary accompanying the interview, released on July 16th: "He says he'll go further if reelected." Trump talked about increasing tariffs on, among others, China.
Trump happens to be right about China. In February, speaking to Maria Bartiromo on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures, he suggested he might impose tariffs greater than 60% on Chinese imports.
Critics from the American elite howl. "This is going to add price inflation across the board, all in the name of 'tough guy' election-year politics," said Yael Ossowski of the Consumer Choice Center, in comments carried by Bloomberg.
"The long historical record demonstrates these are borne not by other countries, as Mr. Trump keeps insisting, but by American consumers and industries," writes Steven R. Weisman of the Washington, D.C.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, about tariffs.
The long historical record might show that, but not the immediate one. In 2018, Trump imposed additional tariffs on China and analysts warned that prices in America would rise. Smart people in America, however, forgot that China had an incentive to effectively pay the tariffs: The Chinese government and exporters absorbed 75% to 81% of the cost of the additional levies. They did so primarily through the government increasing export and other subsidies and factories accepting lower profit margins.
"The Trump tariffs were barely noticed by U.S. businesses or consumers," long-time trade expert Alan Tonelson told Gatestone. "They certainly did not raise inflation, and they certainly did not cut growth."
Trump's additional tariffs topped out at 25%. Now, he is proposing even higher levies. The hit to the American consumer will undoubtedly be greater this time. "The higher tariffs are raised from current levels, the more likely disruptions will occur," says Tonelson, also the founder of public policy blog RealityChek.
At the same time, however, the Chinese have even greater reason to shield consumers from increased costs. The problem for Xi Jinping is that China's growth model is exhausted, and after rejecting stimulating domestic consumption, he is entirely dependent on increasing exports.
Chinese factories, from all indications, are struggling and need to keep customers. For instance, China's Producer Price Index, which measures factory-gate prices, declined for the 21st consecutive month in June. The Wall Street Journal reports low prices have pushed many factories in China "to the brink." With prices declining in China, American consumers will not feel the pinch of new tariffs.
Furthermore, there is one more reason why U.S. consumers will not suffer. High American tariffs will encourage factories to move out of China. When they do, any pressure on consumer prices will disappear.
This is a contest that the United States cannot lose. In short, trade-surplus countries, such as China, cannot prevail over trade-deficit ones, such as America. Last year, America's merchandise trade deficit with China was $279.4 billion.
That is why, ultimately, China will have to pay the cost of tariffs that Trump — or any other American leader — may impose. Clearly, China's regime knows this. People's Daily, the Communist Party's self-described mouthpiece and therefore the most authoritative publication in China, this month is arguing that America should not raise tariffs.
Yet even if American consumers were to pay more because of the tariffs, let us remember why they were imposed in the first place. Trump in 2018 invoked Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and raised tariffs as a remedy for Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property. China steals each year somewhere in the neighborhood of a half trillion dollars of American intellectual property. Critics of tariffs, whether they make valid points or not about increased costs, have an obligation to say how they would eliminate or reduce this criminal practice through other means.
On a broader point, Americans, after more than four decades of misguided policy, have to realize that they cannot fix their lopsided trade relations with China without bearing pain. Unless they agree to become subservient to the militant Chinese state, they will have to accept the costs of remaining sovereign.
Trump's 60% tariffs would "drastically slow" the Chinese economy, as Fortune reported this month. The hit to China would be far greater than any collateral effects in America. Experience with the 2018 tariffs is a guide. "Overall, the damage to China's gross domestic product from the trade war was three times as high as the hit to the U.S., according to some Chinese economists," the Wall Street Journal reported in May.
Why should Americans want to decimate the Chinese factory sector? The Communist Party of China sees the U.S. as an enemy and seeks the destruction of the American republic. The struggle, in short, is existential. China's regime cannot wage the fight against America without American money.
So why should Americans supply the cash to their enemy?
**Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and China Is Going to War, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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What a Harris presidency might mean for Palestinians
Chris Doyle /Arab News/July 29/2024
With fewer than 100 days to go until the Nov. 5 election in the US, campaigning is about to get red hot, even radioactive. It has already been a momentous campaign, even without competitive primaries for both parties. A candidate has been shot at. Another has stood down. The levels of polarization are precarious, with the middle ground a no man’s land between two warring factions.
The rest of the world is watching. The fascination is sharpened because two different Americas are competing for power and other powers will have to adapt to whatever vision prevails. An isolationist or an internationalist US? A US that works with allies versus one that sticks rigidly to its own self-interest.
What might this mean for the Middle East and, in particular, for the crisis of the moment, Israel-Palestine? In past elections, Palestinians would often say that it would make little difference who was in the White House, and they watched as candidates competed to embrace Israel. For sure, none of the potential contenders will be dancing dabke and quoting Mahmoud Darwish while wearing a “Free Palestine” T-shirt, but their visions and direction of travel will be markedly different.
The decision of President Joe Biden to stand aside has shaken up the race. All of a sudden, it is Donald Trump who has to answer questions about his age. He looks like the one fighting off the insurgent, not the other way round. Assessing what Trump will do with the Middle East, as with anything with him, is tough. During his first term, he was the most pro-Israeli, anti-Palestinian American leader in history. Yet the caveat to this was his falling out with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their meeting last week in Mar-a-Lago was their first in almost four years and Trump even had to deny a rift, saying that it “was never bad … we’ve always had a very good relationship.” Also, just how much appetite will Trump have for dishing out billions of dollars of US taxpayers’ money for a foreign government? This is not something he typically likes doing.
But as the polls now narrow to margin of error levels, one has to assess how a Kamala Harris presidency might look for the Middle East. She definitely looks likely to be — not least after the Obamas’ endorsement — the Democratic Party candidate. She has the momentum.
Much was made of Harris not being present for last week’s Netanyahu jamboree at Congress. Would she like to have been part of the dozens of standing ovations? Clearly not. After they did meet in private, her comments were direct and not entirely to Netanyahu’s liking. She called it a “frank and constructive meeting,” diplomatic code for tense.
Even before becoming a presidential election candidate, Harris had sounded more empathetic than Biden. Harris also said: “I will not be silent … It is time for this war to end.” Netanyahu, who opposes any Palestinian state, would have hated her saying: “A two-state solution is the only path that ensures Israel remains a secure Jewish and democratic state, and one that ensures Palestinians can finally realize the freedom, security and prosperity that they rightly deserve.” Few US leaders have talked about Palestinian freedom and security, so to do this in the wake of a face-to-face meeting with Netanyahu was notable.
Even before becoming a candidate, Harris had sounded more empathetic than Biden. Back in March, she called for an immediate ceasefire. She was clear: “People in Gaza are starving (being starved, to be precise). The conditions are inhumane and our common humanity compels us to act.”
The empathy is there but will a change of tone and more humanitarian aid be enough? Many Arab Americans want action and, above all, the end of US complicity in the Gaza genocide by shutting off the US weapons pipeline that permits it to continue.
Yes, this is an exercise in straw-clutching. Harris knows she has to win Michigan, a key swing state that has a large Arab American population. She has to be more energetic, more determined than Biden and a little tougher on Israel, but not an opponent. She will, most believe, remain within the traditional Democratic consensus. She will not back the International Criminal Court against Israel, for example. In this sense, her stance will be more predictable than Trump’s.
That said, Netanyahu and his coalition will fret over a Harris presidency. Netanyahu has once again been pretty clear that he prefers Republicans over Democrats; Trump over Biden or Harris. “There will be no halt to the war, Madame Candidate,” Netanyahu ally Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s racist national security minister, posted on X.Biden may have to cede a degree of policymaking to Harris to help her win in November. She will have a more central role and will want a higher profile on the world stage. Her stance matters from here on in.
This electoral hate-fest has just been given a huge jolt and Trump knows it. The incredible contrast of the two likely candidates in terms of age, gender, race, experience, world outlook, and politics serves to sharpen the divisions. It is the Palestinians who fear that they will once again be one of the primary victims of this inglorious jamboree.
• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech

The realities and challenges facing Pezeshkian’s economic vision
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/July 29/2024
In most countries, the economy often acts as an independent force, guiding policy decisions and shaping political landscapes. However, in Iran, the economic situation is distinctly different. Here, the economy is not an autonomous force but a dependent factor, shaped and controlled by the ruling political system’s strategies. It is a variable closely tied to the decisions of the supreme leader and his inner circle.
During the recent presidential election, before Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory, economic issues were at the forefront of the candidates’ platforms, reflecting the centrality of economic and livelihood concerns among the Iranian population. As such, we should explore President Pezeshkian’s economic plans, including his strategies for addressing the current economic challenges, the obstacles he might encounter, his stance on international sanctions and his foreign policy approach, particularly in relation to the nuclear agreement and diplomatic relations with neighboring countries and the broader international community.
The policies implemented by the Iranian regime have significantly contributed to the severe economic crises currently faced by the Iranian people. This is reflected in the country’s ongoing isolation and the repeated imposition of sanctions over the past four decades, most notably the reinstatement of US sanctions in 2018. As a result, Iran has experienced widespread poverty, unemployment, corruption, nepotism and hyperinflation, with inflation rates surpassing 50 percent.
The national currency has devalued, purchasing power has dwindled and dollar-denominated incomes have dropped to a third of their previous levels. Additionally, local debt has surged, investment has declined, power outages are frequent, government budget deficits have become common and the country has had to adopt austerity measures and cut spending. Despite possessing significant oil reserves, natural resources and various economic assets, Iran has lost numerous development opportunities across multiple sectors.
Pezeshkian, a former minister during Mohammed Khatami’s presidency and a long-serving reformist parliamentary representative, holds a specific economic vision for Iran. He believes that the key to rescuing the country lies in adhering to the general policies and directives set by the revolutionary leader.
Pezeshkian has emphasized that the nuclear agreement is vital in alleviating economic issues. He argues that resolving the challenges associated with this agreement and lifting sanctions should be a priority, achievable with the expertise of local specialists. While he acknowledges that the country can endure under the current sanctions, he insists that true development is unattainable without their removal. In an article published on The Tehran Times website, Pezeshkian stated that the sanctions have inflicted hundreds of billions of dollars in losses on Iran’s economy.
Pezeshkian also supports internal reform measures, such as minimizing the interference of government and military entities in the economy, encouraging the private sector and cooperatives and allowing greater economic freedom, except in the health and education sectors.
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an Iranian economics professor at the University of Virginia, notes that Pezeshkian’s goals may align with those of President Hassan Rouhani, particularly regarding reconciliation with the West, but they diverge in terms of reliance on the market economy and the private sector. Consequently, Pezeshkian’s views are more closely aligned with former President Khatami’s ideas on social justice.
Pezeshkian has not yet outlined a detailed, actionable plan for solving Iran’s economic problems. However, he has shared broad outlines of his economic objectives. His approach involves consulting experts with experience in specific fields. One of his main goals is to lift economic sanctions on Iran, which he views as crucial for improving the country’s economic situation and attracting much-needed investments. To achieve this, he seeks the counsel of former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Pezeshkian also emphasizes the importance of Iran complying with the Financial Action Task Force’s recommendations and removing itself from the organization’s blacklist. The new president is likely to face internal conflicts — assuming his convictions remain unchanged — with the conservative camp.
He aims to foster peaceful international relations, address inflation — a concern previously highlighted by Ali Tayebnia, the former economy minister under Rouhani — and oppose currency controls, mandatory pricing and monopolies, such as those in the car manufacturing industry. His economic vision also includes tackling issues like restricted freedoms and internet censorship, combating corruption, promoting social justice and creating incentives for the development of underserved and border regions.
As regards his vision for his country’s foreign relations, Pezeshkian emphasized his intention to address existing challenges with neighboring nations by focusing on shared interests and reducing tensions. He advocates for the creation of a nonaggression pact with neighboring countries to foster a connection based on common interests.
In the same article, Pezeshkian stated: “Tehran will prioritize strengthening relations with our neighbors. We will initiate cooperation with Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and regional organizations to deepen economic ties, enhance trade relations, increase joint investment and tackle common challenges.” He also expressed a desire to “move forward toward establishing a regional framework for dialogue, confidence-building and development.”
Pezeshkian believes that Iran should maintain a neutral stance, avoiding aligning too closely with either the West or the East, while also refraining from hostility toward them. He promised to develop strategic and balanced relations with Russia and China. However, in an earlier article following his election victory, he accused Washington of “escalating the intensity of the conflict by waging an economic war against Iran and engaging in state terrorism through the assassination of the Quds Force commander.” The coming phase will undoubtedly serve as a practical test for these diplomatic visions.
The implementation of Pezeshkian’s economic goals faces numerous challenges, particularly as they conflict with the interests of Iran’s religious regime and its influential circles, notably the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which plays a significant role in the country’s economy. As a result, the new president is likely to face internal conflicts — assuming his convictions remain unchanged — with the conservative camp that controls both parliament and the regime’s Expediency Discernment Council, as well as the judiciary.
These interest groups are unlikely to relinquish their influence and advantages easily, as demonstrated by their resistance to previous reformist presidents like Khatami and Rouhani, who attempted to curtail their economic power. Furthermore, the Expediency Discernment Council opposes Iran’s compliance with the Financial Action Task Force’s recommendations to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. This opposition stems from concerns that such compliance could expose Iran’s foreign financial dealings, which are designed to circumvent Western sanctions, or its financial ties with armed groups abroad.
Alongside various technical economic challenges, the new president faces several significant hurdles. Controlling inflation, which hovers around 40 percent, is especially difficult amid ongoing US sanctions, particularly those targeting the oil sector. These sanctions have led to a shortage of foreign currency, production inputs and goods, contributing to rising local prices. Additionally, improving the business environment and attracting investments is challenging due to the competition and influence of revolutionary interest groups.
In his attempt to address the budget deficit and inflation, Pezeshkian may consider implementing austerity measures, such as cutting public spending, reducing subsidies or raising taxes and energy prices, which could exacerbate poverty and unemployment. However, if he resorts to deficit financing by borrowing from local banks at high-interest rates, the financial deficit cycle is likely to persist.
Iranians have long been troubled by issues like power outages due to insufficient local gas supplies, housing shortages and high property prices, which remain unsolved. Additionally, problems such as migration, drought, declining agricultural production and population growth require long-term strategies. The most pressing economic challenge for Iran in the short term remains the urgent need to lift sanctions on the Iranian economy.
The Iranian economy could face further deterioration if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November and reinstates stringent oil sanctions on Iran, similar to those imposed before President Joe Biden’s term. Such a scenario could reduce Iran’s oil exports from the current rate of about 1.5 million barrels per day to approximately 300,000 barrels per day. Trump’s return to power might compel the Iranian regime to expedite nuclear negotiations to prevent a complete depletion of its financial resources, which would exacerbate its existing economic crises.
In conclusion, the ability of the incoming Iranian president to address the country’s economic challenges is quite limited. Significant economic improvements are unlikely unless the supreme leader and his inner circle decide to fundamentally change their foreign policy approach.
• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is the founder and president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). X: @mohalsulami

Voices of peace can find strength through unity
Ronald S. Lauder/Arab News/July 29/2024
The late King Hussein of Jordan once shared a poignant message in an interview with a magazine, highlighting that the dividing line does not exist between Jordan and Israel but between the proponents and opponents of peace.
His words resonate deeply today as we witness ongoing efforts to sow division and hatred, eroding the prospects for peace in the region. It is truly disheartening to see attempts to drive a wedge between the daughters and sons of Abraham.
Looking at recent developments in the US and Europe, it is concerning to witness the spread of division and hatred within Jewish and Muslim communities. It is a stark reminder of the voices that stand against peace, as described by the late king.
Let us join hands and strive to foster empathy and understanding, standing together in our pursuit of hope and peace within our communities. Each one of us, as a member of the Jewish, Muslim or Christian community, has a crucial role to play in this journey toward peace.
As history has shown, when a minority becomes a scapegoat, it inevitably affects other minorities as well. Recent statistics reveal a disturbing increase in antisemitic and Islamophobic attacks. This urgent issue must be addressed collaboratively by Jews and Muslims.
The time for action is now. Long-term solutions to combat those sowing division and hatred can only be effective if Abraham’s descendants unite, standing with one voice against those who seek to lead our children and grandchildren into a future marred by destruction, warfare and hate.
There is much work ahead, but my commitment to collaborate with Arab and Jewish communities against hatred and division is unwavering. And I am excited that I have partners on both the Jewish and Muslim sides who are committed to joining me in this fight. Hope blooms from ideas that pave the way forward. Recent discussions with senior officials from Arab states, the US and Europe have seen growing support for the concept of a “NATO for the Middle East,” as people increasingly acknowledge the threat posed to the region by the opponents of peace and its proxies.
Additionally, more leaders are embracing the notion of a “Marshall plan” for the Palestinian territories, which could eventually lead to a two-state solution. I initially presented both these ideas in this publication and their traction is a cause for optimism.
Both Israelis and Palestinians deserve the chance to live and dream of a peaceful and prosperous future for their children.
Despite the challenges on our journey toward a more peaceful world, I remain hopeful that those advocating for peace will ultimately prevail.
My optimism stems from encounters with other voices of hope and peace. Recently, several friends, both Jews and Muslims from different parts of the world, shared with me the story of an Israeli-Palestinian youth chorus that took part in the TV show “America’s Got Talent.” I must confess that I do not usually watch this show, but seeing so many individuals from diverse backgrounds reaching out to me with the same news was remarkable.
After listening to their song “Home” and watching their interview, I understood why this group of young performers had touched so many people of different backgrounds. They represented voices of hope. One of the girls from the chorus told the judges: “We are the Jerusalem Youth Chorus, a group of Palestinians and Israelis. We believe through music, working together and communicating, we are moving toward creating a future where justice, freedom, equality and inclusion exist.”
I saw a group of young individuals standing up against hatred and division at that moment. They taught us leadership and courage by uniting as a voice for hope, peace and a brighter future. The chorus could be an example of what the future of the region and the children of Abraham could be: A future where Israelis and Palestinians — including Jews, Christians and Muslims — come together in the spirit of mutual understanding, free from hate and terror, to build a better world. Their story is a beacon of hope, showing us that a brighter future is within our reach.
As I watched them sing, my heart ached for all the innocent civilians who have lost their lives in the recent conflicts — young women and men, boys and girls, both Israeli and Palestinian. It breaks my heart to think about the potential futures they could have had and the positive impact they could have made in this world if it were not for the voices of the opponents of peace. The tremendous destruction caused by those opposed to peace, igniting the flames of conflict on Oct. 7, is devastating.
I firmly believe empowering those who advocate for peace is crucial. We must establish a clear path forward; the two-state solution is the only viable long-term option. We must acknowledge that this region has been the historical home of Jews, Christians and Muslims for millennia.
Both Israelis and Palestinians deserve the chance to live and dream of a peaceful and prosperous future for their children. We cannot let terrorism and the threat to a nation’s existence dictate our future. It is time for the proponents of peace to come together and raise their voices. Let us unite under the banner of #2states4peace and work toward a better future for all. Remember, our strength, as proponents of peace against the opponents of peace, lies in our unity.
• Ronald S. Lauder is president of the World Jewish Congress. X: @lauder_ronald

Israel and the limits of fire
Ghassan Charbel/Arab News/July 29/2024
Israel made good on its threat to retaliate early on Sunday morning by striking the southern Lebanese towns of Abbasiyah and Burj Al-Shamali. Both towns, adjacent to the city of Tyre, sustained significant material damage. Further attacks took place on Tyre Harfa and Khiyam. Strikes also occurred in Taraya in central Bekaa, with two missiles destroying a residential building. No casualties were reported.
“No one wants a big war,” Kim Ghattas, a Lebanese journalist based in Beirut who writes for The Atlantic, posted on X. “Israel will look to hit key or high visibility targets either in one heavy night of strikes, or a week of ops. The key is to avoid population centers/civilian casualties and not to trigger a big Hezbollah response and a wider war. “Very difficult to calibrate this. High stakes for Lebanon, region, and the Biden administration. So far Israel has not called to evacuate further settlements in northern Israel, indicating they believe Hezbollah’s response will be measured. “All this requires open channels of comms to make sure no one mis-reads the other side’s moves. It’s like a choreography of death, with all too real consequences for civilians everywhere.”As tensions mounted over the weekend, several Western nations issued statements urging their citizens to avoid all unnecessary travel to Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, multiple airlines have suspended flights to and from Beirut. A flurry of diplomatic activity has been underway since the attack to contain Israel’s response.
The Lebanese government condemned all acts of violence and attacks on civilians. “Targeting civilians is a flagrant violation of international law and contradicts the principles of humanity,” it said in a statement, calling for “an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts.”Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the US, France and others were trying to contain the escalation, in an interview late Sunday with local broadcaster Al-Jadeed. “Hezbollah has been targeting military sites, not civilian sites, since the beginning of the war,” he said, adding he did “not believe that it carried out this strike on Majdal Shams.”
“It may have been carried out by other organizations, an Israeli mistake, or even a mistake by Hezbollah. I do not know. We need an international investigation to find out the truth of the matter.”Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati also said that “talks are ongoing with international, European and Arab sides to protect Lebanon and ward off dangers,” in a statement on Sunday. Hezbollah said it had “no connection” to the Majdal Shams strike, but confirmed it had fired one such rocket on Saturday toward an Israeli military target in the Golan. (Shutterstock)
Adrienne Watson, the US National Security Council spokesperson, said Washington has been “in continuous discussions” with Israel and Lebanon since the attack.
Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, condemned the rocket attack and called on all parties to “exercise maximum restraint.”
In a joint statement, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, the UN special coordinator for Lebanon, and Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro, head of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, stressed that “civilians must be protected at all times.”They urged “the parties to exercise maximum restraint and put an end to the intense and ongoing exchange of fire that could ignite a wider conflict that would plunge the entire region into an unimaginable catastrophe.”Hennis-Plasschaert said she had been in contact with Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, who is considered an important channel of communication with Hezbollah. In his own statement, Berri said “Lebanon and its resistance (Hezbollah) are committed to Resolution 1701 and the rules of engagement not to target civilians,” stressing that “the resistance’s denial of what happened in Majdal Shams categorically confirms this commitment and its and Lebanon’s lack of responsibility for what happened.”
Walid Jumblatt, the influential former leader of the Druze-based Progressive Socialist Party, said he had received a phone call on Saturday night from US President Joe Biden’s special envoy Amos Hochstein to discuss the incident. Jumblatt called on both sides to exercise restraint and to remain calm, reiterating the need to avoid civilian casualties. “Wherever it occurs, the targeting of civilians, whether in occupied Palestine, the occupied Golan, or in southern Lebanon, is unacceptable,” he said in a statement.
The fact that those killed in the Majdal Shams attack were not Israelis but members of the Druze community is a complicating factor for Hezbollah, which has sought to improve ties with the religious sect. Many residents of Majdal Shams have not accepted Israeli nationality since Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967.
Following the conquest of about two-thirds of the Golan plateau during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel annexed the area in 1981 in a move not recognized by the international community, with the exception of the US since 2019.
The Golan Druze largely identify as Syrian, while having resident status, rather than citizenship, in Israel. Members of the Druze community in Syria have resisted the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, which is backed by Hezbollah. “The ‘casus belli’ of a war is particularly important for Hezbollah,” said Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst and head of the analyst team at Le Beck International. “They will have to justify their actions to the Lebanese (who would suffer massive destruction by Israel) if a war breaks out as a result of the attack in Majdal Shams, and this will be particularly uncomfortable for them. “Hezbollah wants to be seen as the defender of Lebanon. If a war breaks out over an attack that killed residents of a town (who) don’t even identify as Israelis, this would be particularly bad for the group.
“This explains the Hezbollah denial, on top of the sectarian dynamic. The very narrative of how the war begins is critical for the group.”