Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 08-09/2024
Schenker: An understanding between Hezbollah and Israel is possible
Israeli drones breach rules of engagement pursuing Hezbollah
Hezbollah launches drone attack on Mount Hermon in Israel's Golan Heights
Israel has key surveillance, espionage and air defense installations on Mount Hermon where it overlooks the Syrian capital.
UK's Starmer urges 'caution' on Israel-Lebanon border
Southern Front: One Dead in Israeli Strike on Al-Qulaylah
Hezbollah targets Israeli mountain base in 'largest' air attack
UN special coordinator for Lebanon visits Israel
Israeli drone kills Hezbollah fighter as warplanes strike Jezzine mountain
Hezbollah launches drone attack on Mount Hermon in occupied Golan Heights
Money laundering concerns: Can Lebanon avoid being included on FATF's "Grey List"?
Iran's President-elect Pezeshkian thanks Hezbollah's Nasrallah, extends wishes to Lebanese people
BDL's Wassim Mansouri's US visit: Will he shield Lebanon from the FATF 'grey list'?
Macron Dissatisfied With US Envoy’s Role in Lebanon
Berri Calls Again for Inclusive Dialogue
Lebanese Army Raids Nahr al-Bared Camp for Drug Trafficking
PARAMED Project to Support Lebanese Public Health Sector
EDL Takes Preventive Measures to Avoid Blackouts
Should Lebanon Be Sacrificed to Win Back Palestine?/Fady Noun/This is Beirut/July 08/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 08-09/2024
Israel orders residents to evacuate as tanks storm Gaza City districts
Bank of Israel Extends Rate Pause as War Complicates Next Move
For Palestinian prisoner, return to Gaza brings anguish and shattered dreams
Gaza destruction likely helped push Hamas to soften cease-fire demands, several officials say
Israeli tanks move on Gaza City in major attack as civilians seek shelter
Gaza death toll could exceed 186,000, Lancet study finds
Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire
Israeli forces push deeper into Gaza City in pursuit of militants. Thousands flee again
Three Gazans found dead after release from Israeli custody, relative and witness say
An Iranian frigate was seen capsizing at port while next to merchant ships, in another black mark for the country's record of naval mishaps
Exclusive-Satellite photos show Iran expanding missile production, sources say
NATO leaders are descending on Washington. Here's what to know
Armenian foreign minister to travel to Washington for NATO summit
US' not ready to resume nuclear talks after Iran elections
US State Dept condemns 'savage' attack on Kyiv children's hospital
Russian missiles kill 36 in Ukraine, gut Kyiv children’s hospital
Syrians in Turkey fear for future after Erdogan plans talks with Assad
Biden Urges Democrats to Support His Reelection
Houthis claim to target Israel's Eilat in coordination with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Yemeni minister says Houthis abducted 70 Yemenis, including 18 UN staff

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 08-09/2024
Why Are Arabs Whitewashing Iran-Backed Terrorist Organizations?/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./July 08/2024
The Weakness of the Western Model or the Absence of any Other?/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2024
Can We Compare Elections?/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2024
Pezeshkian and the Iranian Guide’s Calculations/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2024
Opinion: Europe and NATO can't help the U.S. counter China. Here's why/Mark Hannah/ Los Angeles Times./July 8, 2024 at 6:00
Vienna: A Case Study of the ‘Great Replacement/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream./July 08/2024
Transitions/Charles Chartouni/This is Beirut/July 08/2024
Israel-Hamas Agreement: What Is in Store?/Natasha Metni Torbey/This is Beirut/July 08/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 08-09/2024
Schenker: An understanding between Hezbollah and Israel is possible
Al-Nahar/08 July/2024 (Translated from Arabic by Google)
Recalling the state of the fighting erupting on the Lebanese-Israeli border through the “political telescope” of former US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, as well as the climate of the atmosphere filled with the smoke of explosive bombs, coincides with a period in which concerns about a severe outbreak of war do not dissipate, even if it is late, no. During it, it will be possible to control what is engulfed by the fire that may break out with unlimited and unlimited voraciousness... and then it will be the beginning of a comprehensive war. Mediation attempts and external proposals aimed at a pure diplomatic solution to end the fighting and restore stability also have their place. When Schenker examines the situation in the region from his skilled and experienced perspective, and his current abreast of battle developments from his research and administrative center at the Washington Institute, he says in an exclusive interview with “An-Nahar” that “Israel and Hezbollah are not seeking war. After October 7, when The Hamas movement stole a page from Hezbollah's war plan. Israel decided that it could no longer tolerate the status quo in which about 10,000 of the party's Radwan forces live along its borders, after years of serving as a foreign legion for Iran in Syria, Iraq and Yemen Hezbollah finally saw it necessary to fight Israel again, so it engaged in effective resistance against the enemy.
Schenker also has at his disposal an “analytical microscope” of the escalating skirmishes over the past months, as he notes that “exchanges have escalated significantly. The party says that it will not stop its operations until there is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Israel intends to end major combat operations in Gaza in the coming weeks.” However, it is unlikely that there will be an official ceasefire when Israel withdraws from its military operations in Gaza. The ball will either be in Hezbollah’s court. Either it will stop its fire and enter into negotiations to separate forces, or there will be a war It is possible that the party and Israel can reach a quiet understanding - such as the deal brokered by Secretary of State Warren Christopher in 1996 in the wake of Israel's "Grapes of Wrath" operation - time is running out. The war would inflict heavy losses on both Israel and Lebanon, but it appears that "the party... "God and his sponsors in Tehran are comfortable with the current battle of attrition of moderate intensity. Israel will not tolerate this situation indefinitely." As Washington seeks a diplomatic solution that would curb the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel to spare Lebanon from all-out war, it raises questions about the extent of the success of diplomatic efforts. David Schenker recounts that “US envoy Amos Hockstein put forward a proposal that would enable both sides to declare victory and delay the war, at least temporarily. The Hezbollah team will ‘liberate’ Lebanese territory along the Blue Line - including the village of Ghajar - through mediated negotiations, Israel will obtain the party’s approval to withdraw its military formations within kilometers of the border, which will allow 70,000 of its displaced citizens to return to their homes. There is little confidence that this agreement will last, but it would delay what would undoubtedly be a very costly fire "The American and French efforts will succeed, but time is short." Regarding Lebanon’s official handling of the situation in southern Lebanon, he added, “The Lebanese state is the channel for indirect negotiations between the administration of President Joe Biden and Hezbollah. In fact, the state is not important. What President Najib Mikati said in October of last year remains It is true today regarding matters of war and peace in that these decisions are not in his hands.” Does International Resolution 1701 still constitute the solution on the border between the State of Lebanon and the State of Israel? Schenker answers: “Security Council Resolution 1701 was a good-faith initiative that was not implemented. It is unlikely that the resolution will be implemented now. 1701 was not a “solution,” but it contained some provisions that could have led to a calming of tensions along the border. In the end Ultimately, the presence of a team from the “Quds Force” of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (i.e. Hezbollah) deployed on Israel’s borders does not constitute a recipe for peace and tranquility.”
Concerning the due elections for the presidency of the Lebanese Republic and the most important qualifications of the Lebanese president and the challenges, Schenker points out from his point of view as an observer that “Lebanon is a failed state. Not only because the state is not sovereign. It is because the state is in dire need of reform, and the political class was not up to this task. Lebanon's last president refused to implement reforms. A future Lebanese president, depending on who he is, may also avoid reform going forward. At the very least, it will be important for Lebanon to have a president who is trusted by most Lebanese, who has a vision for the future, and is not beholden to foreign governments or militias. Given the historical risks associated with this position - especially if the president values ​​Lebanese sovereignty - courage is also a prerequisite. It is not overlooked that “six more years of a president loyal to Syria, Iran, and friend of Hezbollah would further undermine hopes for Lebanon’s sovereignty and prosperity. Essentially, it would mean more of the same.”
In David Schenker's conclusion, “Hezbollah dominates Lebanon and will, unfortunately, be the decision-maker on issues of war and peace. But Lebanese authorities and politicians can have influence on other matters of importance. Economic reform must be a priority, as well as Fighting corruption. Those who oppose the current course of the state under Hezbollah's control should put aside petty differences and try to work together to achieve common interests. Now is not the time for business as usual.

Israeli drones breach rules of engagement pursuing Hezbollah
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/July 08, 2024
BEIRUT: An Israeli military drone targeted a car in Tyre and a motorcycle in Qlaileh in southern Lebanon on Monday, killing a Hezbollah member and severely injuring another. Hezbollah announced the death of the victim, identified as Mustafa Hassan Salman, born in 1991, from Qlaileh.The Israeli military also hit a goat farm in Jabal Tourah in Jezzine, killing over 500 goats. The reason for the expansion of hostilities, which violate the rules of engagement, remains unclear. After targeting a Hezbollah operative in Deir Qanoun En Nahr three weeks ago, the Israeli military targeted Maaroub in southern Lebanon and Chaat in Baalbek–Hermel on Saturday and Sunday. As well as expanding the scope of its operations, Israel is also penetrating deeper into Lebanon. One political observer worried that “Israel, which probably doesn’t want to expand the war, might want to continue its assassinations and targeting of Hezbollah members in any Lebanese region, even if the war in the southern front came to an end.”Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday: “We want to bring Hezbollah to reach an agreement that allows residents to return to their homes.”Sunday was one of the most challenging days on the southern front, as Hezbollah carried out an operation in the Israeli Golan Heights in response to the assassination of Hezbollah member Maytham Mustafa Al-Attar in Chaat, Baalbek. Israeli Army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said on Monday that the military “carried out Sunday night raids on Hezbollah’s targets in Lebanon, including a military site in Jabal Tourah, a Hezbollah weapons depot in Qabrikha, a military building in Tallouseh and facilities in Houla and Aita Al-Shaab.” He added that the army carried out artillery shelling to remove threats in several areas in southern Lebanon. A family in Marjayoun miraculously escaped death after a missile hit their home but did not explode. Another rocket fell in Qabrikha, but did not explode either. In response to the assassination of Al-Attar, Hezbollah launched a drone attack on Mount Hermon in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights where Israel has a key surveillance center. It said this was its first such bombing since it began trading fire with Israel on Oct. 8. The attack hit intelligence equipment and technical systems, causing a major fire, Hezbollah said. Israel has key surveillance, espionage, and air defense installations on Mount Hermon where it overlooks the Syrian capital Damascus and monitors the rest of the country. Hezbollah also launched dozens of Katyusha rockets at the Nimra base, marking the first attack in nine months of confrontations in the northern region near Tiberias.
Hezbollah targeted the newly established headquarters of the 91st Division in the Ayelet Barracks with dozens of Katyusha rockets, as well as military sites in Liman, Bayad Blida, Birkat Risha, Al-Raheb, and Al-Baghdadi. Several American citizens and an Israeli settler were injured. The Israeli military retaliated by conducting airstrikes on the town of Maaroub for the first time, targeting and destroying a concrete water storage tank. Maaroub, in the Tyre district, is considered a stronghold for Hezbollah, as the hometown of former minister and co-founder Mohammed Fneish. An Israeli warplane also struck a house in the town of Naqoura. The Israeli military shelled the town of Bustane with phosphorus bombs, causing fires in agricultural fields and olive groves. As part of diplomatic efforts, UN Special Coordinator in Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert has been conducting talks in Israel since Sunday after intensive discussions with Lebanese leaders and concerned parties to explore ways of de-escalation across the Blue Line. Her office said in a statement that “her visit to Israel comes ahead of planned UN Security Council consultations on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006 later this month.”She said that discussions with Israeli officials focus on the importance of restoring peace and creating an opportunity for a diplomatic solution that allowed displaced civilians from both sides to return home. Additionally, they will address the outstanding provisions under Resolution 1701. The Iranian Foreign Ministry warned on Monday that any “attack on Lebanon will create grounds for increased tension in the region and threatens its security and peace.” The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that “defending Lebanon is a fundamental principle for us, and there is no doubt that we will support Lebanon against any Israeli aggression.”It added: “Israel will bear the consequences of any attack on Lebanon, and the international community must assume its responsibilities.”'

Hezbollah launches drone attack on Mount Hermon in Israel's Golan Heights
Israel has key surveillance, espionage and air defense installations on Mount Hermon where it overlooks the Syrian capital.
By REUTERS/JULY 8, 2024 00:15
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group said on Sunday it launched a drone attack on Mount Hermon in Israel's Golan Heights where there is a key surveillance center. It said this was its first such bombing since it began trading fire with Israel on October 8, a day after its Palestinian ally, the Hamas terror organization, attacked southern Israel - sparking the Gaza war. Hezbollah says it would halt operations only when the war ends. .Although it had hit other areas in the Golan Heights repeatedly, Lebanon's Hezbollah claimed it was the first time to hit the military target that is at the highest elevation in the Israeli-controlled territory. Israel has key surveillance, espionage and air defense installations on Mount Hermon where it overlooks the Syrian capital and serves to monitor Syria, Iraq, Jordan and parts of Saudi Arabia since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Conflict between the two have been intensifying
The conflict between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel has been gradually intensifying for months, raising fears of a full-scale war, which both sides say they wish to avoid and diplomats are working to prevent it. Hezbollah has ratcheted up its attacks, sending larger numbers of explosive drones, using a new type of rocket, and declaring that it has targeted Israeli warplanes for the first time, according to sources familiar with Hezbollah's arsenal. The escalation has tested unwritten rules that have largely confined the conflict to areas at the border or near it since October, keeping Lebanese and Israeli cities out of the firing line. Israel blames Iranian-backed Hezbollah for the increase in violence and has repeated its vows to restore security to the border. The IDF did not immediately reply to a request for comment on the latest Hezbollah strike.

UK's Starmer urges 'caution' on Israel-Lebanon border
Agence France Presse/July 08/2024
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called on all sides to exercise "caution" on the border between Israel and Lebanon, in his first telephone conversation since he was elected with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Starmer told his counterpart the "situation on the northern border of Israel was very concerning, and it was crucial all parties acted with caution," a spokesperson for his 10 Downing Street office said. Hezbollah on Sunday fired another 20 rockets at northern Israel, leaving one person injured there, the latest cross-border attacks launched in solidarity with Gaza's Palestinian militant group Hamas. Hezbollah has traded near daily fire with the Israeli army across Lebanon's southern border since its Palestinian ally Hamas attacked Israel last year, triggering the war in Gaza. Discussing the conflict, the prime minister reiterated his condolences for the mass loss of life during the October 7 attacks, the spokesperson said. "He then set out the clear and urgent need for a ceasefire, the return of hostages and an immediate increase in the volume of humanitarian aid reaching civilians." In his conversation with Netanyahu, Starmer added that it was also "important to ensure the long-term conditions for a two-state solution were in place, including ensuring the Palestinian Authority had the financial means to operate effectively." Efforts towards a truce are continuing with U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators hoping to halt the worst-ever Gaza war, which has caused mass civilian casualties and devastated the coastal territory. The spokesperson said the prime minister also spoke by phone to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Starmer told Abbas that his "longstanding policy on recognition to contribute to a peace process had not changed, and it was the undeniable right of Palestinians." The October 7 attack on southern Israel allegedly resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures. The militants also seized 251 hostages, 116 of whom remain in Gaza, including 42 the Israeli military says are dead. In response, Israel's military offensive has killed at least 38,153 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-ruled territory.

Southern Front: One Dead in Israeli Strike on Al-Qulaylah
This is Beirut/July 08/2024
The upsurge in violence on the southern border is still ongoing on Monday morning following Sunday’s escalation. An Israeli strike on Al-Qulaylah, south of Tyre, killed one person and injured others. Moreover, the Israeli army conducted three strikes before dawn on Monday on Jabal Toura in the Jezzine area, leading to the destruction of a goat farm, with an estimation of over 500 goats dead. Additionally, Israeli artillery targeted Burj Al-Muluk, Houla and Kfar Kila with artillery shells. The town of Burj Al-Muluk was subjected to heavy artillery shelling after midnight last night, causing shattered glass in many shops and homes in the town and resulting in material damage to properties. In a related development, Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee announced on Monday that “the Israeli army carried out strikes last night on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, aiming a military site, an arms depot, and other infrastructure.” Adraee added, “Last night, warplanes struck a Hezbollah military site in the Jabal Toura area of southern Lebanon.” He confirmed that “warplanes also struck a Hezbollah arms depot in the Qabrikha area, a military building in the Tallousa area, and infrastructure in Houla and Aita al-Shaab.”
Around 11:40 PM on Sunday night, the Israeli army targeted the town of Aita al-Shaab with two guided missiles from its positions inside the occupied Palestinian territories. A family in Marjayoun narrowly escaped when an air-to-ground missile hit their house but did not explode. Israeli aircraft carried out a strike on Talouseh and launched a missile on Qabriha, which also did not explode. Additionally, at around 11:15 PM last night, Israeli warplanes conducted a strike targeting the town of Aita al-Shaab with two air-to-ground missiles.

Hezbollah targets Israeli mountain base in 'largest' air attack
Agence France Presse/July 08/2024
Hezbollah says it has launched its "largest" air operation, sending explosive drones at a mountaintop Israeli military intelligence base in the annexed Golan Heights. It is the latest incident among escalating cross-border exchanges of fire that have triggered global alarm. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Hamas ally, has traded almost daily fire with Israeli forces since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in the Gaza Strip. Announcing "the largest operation" carried out by its aerial forces, Hezbollah said in a statement that its fighters sent "multiple, successive squadrons of drones to target the reconnaissance center" on Mount Hermon. The Israeli military said an explosive drone "fell in an open area in the Mount Hermon area" but there were "no injuries." Attacks as well as rhetoric have escalated in recent weeks, spurring fears of an all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah which last went to war in 2006. The Lebanese group said the drone attack was part of its "response" to the killing of an operative in a strike Saturday deep into east Lebanon around 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the border. The Mount Hermon attack targeted intelligence systems, "destroying them and starting a major fire," Hezbollah said. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited troops on Mount Hermon earlier on Sunday, his office said. In two additional statements, the Israeli military said its air defenses "successfully intercepted" several "aerial targets" that crossed from Lebanon after sirens sounded in the Golan Heights area. Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and later annexed it in a move largely unrecognized by the international community. The Israeli strike on Saturday killed "a key operative in Hezbollah's Aerial Defense Unit," the military has said. Throughout Sunday, Hezbollah announced four more attacks on Israeli military sites across the border with barrages of rockets as well as some guided missiles. Israeli authorities reported four wounded.Gallant, in a video from Mount Hermon, said that "even if there is a ceasefire" in Gaza, "we will continue fighting and doing everything necessary to bring about the desired result" in the campaign against Hezbollah.The cross-border violence has killed at least 497 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including 95 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to the authorities. Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced from the border areas in both southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

UN special coordinator for Lebanon visits Israel
Naharnet/July 08/2024 
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert has arrived in Israel for a three-day visit, her office said. “Since assuming office last month, Hennis-Plasschaert has extensively engaged the Lebanese leadership and key interlocutors on ways to deescalate tensions across the Blue Line,” her office said in a statement. Her visit to Israel comes ahead of planned United Nations Security Council consultations on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006) later this month. Discussions with Israeli officials are expected to focus on the need to “restore calm and give space for a diplomatic resolution that enables displaced civilians on both sides to return home, as well as to address outstanding provisions under resolution 1701,” the statement said.

Israeli drone kills Hezbollah fighter as warplanes strike Jezzine mountain
Naharnet/July 08/2024 
Hezbollah fighter Mustafa Salman was killed in an Israeli drone strike on a motorbike in the Tyre district town of Qlaileh, the group and the National News Agency said. Another person was wounded in the strike. Israeli airstrikes on the Toura mountain in Jezzine deep in south Lebanon meanwhile killed more than 700 goats as a Syrian shepherd escaped unharmed. The National News Agency said the warplanes fired three missiles at the mountain, destroying a goat barn and the shepherd’s home. The developments come after Hezbollah said it launched its "largest" air operation, sending explosive drones at a mountaintop Israeli military intelligence base in the annexed Golan Heights. The cross-border violence has killed at least 497 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including 95 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to the authorities. Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced from the border areas in both southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

Hezbollah launches drone attack on Mount Hermon in occupied Golan Heights
Reuters/July 08/2024
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group said on Sunday it launched a drone attack on Mount Hermon in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights where Israel has a key surveillance center. It said this was its first such bombing since it began trading fire with Israel on Oct. 8, a day after its Palestinian ally Hamas attacked southern Israel, sparking the Gaza war. Hezbollah says it would halt operations only when the war ends. Although it had hit other areas in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights repeatedly, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it was the first time to hit the military target that is at the highest elevation in the Israeli-controlled territory. Israel has key surveillance, espionage, and air defense installations on Mount Hermon where it overlooks the Syrian capital and serves to monitor Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and parts of Saudi Arabia since the 1973 Oct. Arab-Israeli war.

Money laundering concerns: Can Lebanon avoid being included on FATF's "Grey List"?
LBCI/July 08/2024
For over two years, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international body established in 1989 by the G7, has considered placing Lebanon on its "grey list" due to "unsatisfactory practices" in combating money laundering.
However, the decision has been repeatedly postponed. A crucial meeting scheduled for early September may be the final evaluation of Lebanon's adherence to anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing standards. There are concerns that Lebanon might receive a negative evaluation, resulting in its classification on FATF's grey list. This classification could severely damage Lebanon's already fragile economy, particularly its banking sector, which would face isolation from the global financial system. This isolation could hinder the ability to finance imports and conduct international transfers through correspondent banks, further deteriorating Lebanon’s international reputation and trust. To mitigate these potential repercussions, acting Banque du Liban (BDL) governor, Wassim Mansouri, has traveled to the United States for a series of meetings with officials from the US Treasury, Congress, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. He aims to present the recent measures taken by BDL to curb money laundering. Nonetheless, these measures may fall short in the eyes of the FATF, especially given the persistently high rate of cash transactions in Lebanon, which complicates efforts to control money laundering. Mansouri may seek to delay the FATF's evaluation once again, promising the implementation of additional measures. Banking sources suggest that the prevalence of a cash economy is a consequence of the Lebanese Parliament's delay in enacting necessary reforms, including capital control laws and bank restructuring, which would facilitate a return to standard financial operations. Could the potential inclusion of Lebanon on the grey list be a form of political pressure from the United States, driven by Lebanon's slow progress in implementing reforms and electing a new president? Observers note that while Washington previously tolerated delays in Lebanon's evaluation, it is unlikely to do so now given the lack of response to international demands.

Iran's President-elect Pezeshkian thanks Hezbollah's Nasrallah, extends wishes to Lebanese people
LBCI/July 08/2024
Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed Iran's ongoing support for the resistance of the region against the "illegitimate Zionist entity."Pezeshkian stated in a message to Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah: "Support for the resistance is deeply rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran."He continued: "I am confident that the region's resistance movements will not allow this [Israeli] entity to continue its criminal policies against the oppressed Palestinian people and other peoples of the region."Pezeshkian thanked Nasrallah and extended his best wishes to the Lebanese people.

BDL's Wassim Mansouri's US visit: Will he shield Lebanon from the FATF 'grey list'?
LBCI/July 08/2024
Following his visit to the US, sources monitoring the discussions of acting Banque du Liban (BDL) governor Wassim Mansouri in Washington confirmed that in the context of his efforts to avoid placing Lebanon on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) "grey list," he will present to the US Departments of State and Treasury the measures taken by BDL and the banking sector to prevent Lebanon from being listed. These measures include verifying and confirming the sources of funds entering the Lebanese banking sector. This matter will also be a subject in his upcoming discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and some members of the US Congress. Additionally, a very important meeting will be held for the first time in years with officials from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, which is akin to a special investigative body in the United States. Sources indicated that Mansouri's primary concern is to ensure that correspondent banks do not cease their dealings with Lebanese banks if Lebanon is placed on the "grey list." Therefore, he will emphasize that the Central Bank of Lebanon and the banks have taken the necessary measures to avoid this issue, and that "the ball is not in their court" but in the court of the Lebanese state, which has not taken sufficient and decisive steps to combat corruption and money laundering. The sources expressed their belief that Mansouri will be able to maintain correspondent banking relationships with Lebanon even if the country was placed on the "grey list."
They hoped that the Lebanese state would take subsequent steps to remove Lebanon from this list, as happened with some countries, rather than leaving matters as they are today, which could threaten Lebanon with the "black list."Sources stressed that the government and parliament must pass laws and procedures that limit the cash economy, prevent smuggling, reduce banking secrecy measures, restore order to the financial system, including restructuring banks, implementing reforms that allow for an agreement with the IMF, and combating corruption.

Macron Dissatisfied With US Envoy’s Role in Lebanon
This is Beirut/July 08/2024
During his meeting with caretaker Prime Minister Nagib Mikati at the Elysée Palace, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his dissatisfaction with the disproportionate role US envoy Amos Hochstein is playing in Lebanon. According to French officials, the American envoy’s mission was limited to the demarcation of land borders and the implementation of UNSCR 1701. However, Hochstein expanded his mission to include the Lebanese presidential election. This is why Macron requested that his emissary in Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, communicate and coordinate with Hochstein. Le Drian traveled to Washington on more than one occasion for this purpose. In a return visit to Paris, Hochstein ensured coordination and cooperation in following up on the Franco-American declaration regarding Lebanon.

Berri Calls Again for Inclusive Dialogue
This is Beirut/July 08/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s initial proposal to break the presidential deadlock is to convene an open parliamentary session with consecutive rounds, preceded by a week-long dialogue chaired by himself. However, the sovereigntist MPs are against this idea, stating that such dialogue violates constitutional principles, and that the role of the Speaker of Parliament is to convene an electoral session. In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday, Berri explained his rejection of the idea of MP consultation “with whomever is in attendance” and supported “an inclusive dialogue under the exceptional circumstances that Lebanon is going through.”Berri emphasized that the only option is consultation or dialogue, adding that it is possible to fill the vacancy within ten days. The parliament speaker pointed out the urgent need for cooperation to “unite the country” and asked, “What harm is there in dialogue or consultation?” Of note, the last electoral session convened by Speaker Nabih Berri was on June 13, 2023. In the same interview, Berri emphasized that there are no preconditions for consultation. “If we agree on a consensus candidate, he will be warmly welcomed and supported by us. Otherwise, we will go to Parliament with a list of candidates from which MPs will choose the president in consecutive parliamentary sessions with multiple electoral rounds, provided that a two-thirds majority is secured to elect him.” This would put an end to the disruption of sessions due to the inability to secure the required quorum. However, the opposition accuses the Amal-Hezbollah alliance of “using dialogue as a pretext to eventually elect their candidate,” Sleiman Frangieh, the head of the Marada party. Berri also stressed the urgent need to elect a president so that he may lead the Lebanese delegation in case of a new political map for the Middle East.

Lebanese Army Raids Nahr al-Bared Camp for Drug Trafficking
This is Beirut/July 08/2024
Tension escalated on Monday morning in the Palestinian camp of Nahr al-Bared as the Lebanese Army and intelligence units conducted a raid to apprehend individuals wanted for drug trafficking. According to reports, suspects opened fire, prompting a response from the Army. Entrances and exits to the camp were sealed off to prevent movement in and out. An official from Fateh, the Palestinian movement led by Mahmoud Abbas, expressed support for the Lebanese Army’s actions, stating, “The Army is pursuing a group of drug traffickers who threaten the security of Nahr al-Bared camp, and we fully stand behind the Lebanese Army in their decisions.” The incident sparked anger among camp residents, leading the Lebanese Army to deploy additional reinforcements in anticipation of further security challenges. In a statement released later in the afternoon, the Army confirmed, “Following gunfire in Nahr al-Bared camp, our forces conducted searches and arrested the suspect (J.A.).” The statement noted that during the search, the Army encountered resistance, including stone-throwing and shots fired into the air. “The suspects’ homes were searched as part of the arrest operation,” the statement continued, “and the investigation of the suspect is now underway under the supervision of the appropriate judicial authorities.”

PARAMED Project to Support Lebanese Public Health Sector
This is Beirut/July 08/2024
An official signing ceremony for the PARAMED project (Project for Supporting Healthcare Personnel Skills in the Public Sector in Lebanon) took place at the Ministry of Public Health on Monday. The ceremony was chaired by Health Minister Firass Abiad and attended by a delegation from the French Ministry of Health.
The PARAMED project aims to bolster the skills and increase the number of healthcare workers in Lebanon’s public health institutions. Co-funded with six million euros by the French Development Agency (AFD) and the IF Foundation, the project is being implemented by the European Institute for Cooperation and Development (IECD). Amid the crisis facing Lebanon’s healthcare system, PARAMED seeks to enhance the quality of care and improve access for vulnerable populations. It involves establishing training centers in 12 public hospitals and implementing continuous training and refresher programs for recent graduates and current hospital staff. By improving the skills of healthcare professionals and promoting job opportunities for young people in nursing, PARAMED aims to benefit 4,200 healthcare workers and approximately 3 million patients. “This program is notable for its collaboration between the health and education sectors, aimed at delivering improved healthcare services to all Lebanese citizens,” remarked caretaker Health Minister Firass Abiad.

EDL Takes Preventive Measures to Avoid Blackouts
This is Beirut/July 08/2024
Electricité du Liban (EDL) announced on Monday that it is taking preventive measures to avoid a blackout until it receives the second portion of diesel allocated for June 2024.In a press release, the public supplier explained that it had to resort to these measures to extend the period of energy production for citizens and maintain a continuous power supply, 24 hours a day, for vital installations such as the airport, the port, water pumps, and sewers to avoid total darkness. Since July 6th, EDL has been forced to shut down a production unit at the Zahrani plant and completely shut down the Deir Ammar plant to preserve its stock. These measures will provide approximately four additional days of power until Thursday, July 11. The units will be reinstated once the second part of the planned shipment has been unloaded, thus restoring the supply. The delay in delivery is attributable to a delay in the disbursement of funds by the Central Bank to EDL, preventing the public electricity supplier from paying for the diesel, according to the state-owned company. It should be noted that the first part of the cargo allocated for June 2024 arrived in Lebanese territorial waters on June 27 and is currently anchored opposite the mouth of the Deir Ammar power station, with all necessary administrative and customs formalities fully completed, enabling it to unload its cargo. The second part arrived on July 4 and is currently at the mouth of the Zahrani plant, still awaiting the results of tests carried out in the United Arab Emirates and their verification by the monitoring company appointed by the Ministry of Energy and Water. The results have still not been sent to Lebanon due to non-payment. Electricity generation in Lebanon currently relies on the Zahrani and Deir Ammar power plants, as the Jiyeh and Zouk plants require maintenance. These power plants depend on the monthly supply of diesel oil provided to EDL by the Ministry of Energy under the exchange agreement concluded between Iraq and Lebanon on July 23, 2021. Under this agreement, Iraq supplies fuel to Lebanese power plants on advantageous terms. The agreement, which came into force in September 2021, sets the quantity of fuel at 100,000 tons per month (80,000 tons usable by the power plants due to the swap). Since Iraqi fuel cannot be used directly in Lebanese power plants due to its high sulfur content, Lebanon purchases a compatible type of fuel from other suppliers, selected after a tender process, with these suppliers receiving Iraqi fuel in exchange. Caretaker Minister of Energy Walid Fayad insists that the electricity sector is facing a local and international blockade. He assures that his objective is to maintain the sector, increase power from 500 to 1,000 megawatts to provide ten hours of electricity a day, and cover costs away from political tensions. Fayad recalled that the American envoy, Amos Hochstein, had linked the solution to the problem of importing electricity from Jordan and gas from Egypt to agreements with Israel concerning the southern border, a ceasefire, and the return of “displaced Syrians.”
Fayad also pointed out that certain political authorities are imposing a financial blockade on the electricity sector, stressing that the key to the solution today lies with the powers in place. He deplored the delay in the transfer of funds by the Central Bank to pay for fuel under the agreement with Iraq, stating, “This delay is affecting Lebanon’s supply of the fuel needed to run its power stations.” The Minister mentioned that he had been working on a new contract with Iraq, which has been ready for a year, to increase the quantities of fuel supplied and consequently, the supply. This contract allows deferred payments to be made for six months. Fayad stressed that the Central Bank had not issued the guarantee needed to manage this contract despite the financial solvency of Electricité du Liban. In this context, the Caretaker Minister of Economy, Amin Salam, wrote on X about the necessity to “accelerate bold national measures to accept Qatari renewable energy projects and implement them as quickly as possible since neither the generators nor EDL meet citizens’ needs.”

Should Lebanon Be Sacrificed to Win Back Palestine?
Fady Noun/This is Beirut/July 08/2024
“The Maronite Patriarch shouldn’t apologize,” asserts the Maronite Archbishop Emeritus of Beirut, Boulos Matar. The Shiite duo (Amal-Hezbollah) wants an apology from Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai for saying in one of his homilies that he refuses to let southern Lebanon become a launching pad for “terrorist” actions. However, Boulos Matar firmly maintains that an apology is not warranted. He met with Sheikh Ali Khatib, the vice president of the Higher Shiite Council, to clarify the context that justifies Rai’s statement and his position. Hezbollah has created a volatile situation of lawlessness in southern Lebanon by unilaterally starting hostilities against Israel, bypassing official channels, the emeritus archbishop stated. Are these hostilities a preventive war, as claimed, arguing that the Israeli army would have targeted Lebanon anyway following its war in Gaza? This retrospective justification fails to convince anyone. In fact, Hezbollah intended to open a front to ease pressure on Gaza and to exhaust Israel’s military capabilities. History will determine if the Shiite party has succeeded in his gamble. What is certain, however, is that he has opened the way to a potential extension of the conflict across all of Lebanon, which could have been devastating and led to a situation of uncontrollable anarchy, including the convergence on Lebanon of reinforcements from other fronts of the pro-Iranian axis such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. “The patriarch’s statements are broad in scope,” the archbishop confides to This is Beirut. “They address situations, not individuals. A text must be understood in its context, and a person’s words should be considered in relation to everything they represent and express. We cannot lightly dismiss the patriarch’s remarks, especially given the current weakening of our institutions and the absence of a president to enforce UN resolutions and protect Lebanon from all types of infiltration.”According to Mohammad Sammak, Hezbollah and the Amal movement have – on a community level– repeated the mistake made by Sunnis at the beginning of the civil war (1975-1990): “Surrendering to their emotions, at the expense of Lebanese internal unity.”In fact, the real national debate hinges on this question: To what extent can Lebanon show solidarity with the Palestinian people without jeopardizing its own existence? This is the question raised by Patriarch Rai’s remarks, viewed as “unfortunate” by the Shiite community. Does Hezbollah have the right to destabilize Lebanon and expose its population and economy to severe risks? This should be the subject of a “national dialogue,” if one is ever to take place. By labeling a situation “terrorist,” the patriarch referred to a potentially destabilizing, even devastating, “subversive” situation. Upon closer examination, it should be Hezbollah’s duty to provide explanations, if not apologies. Lebanon’s commitment to the 1949 armistice agreement stands in stark contrast to Iran’s policy of annihilating Israel. On the other hand, Beirut’s emeritus Maronite Archbishop Boulos Matar acknowledges that the Maronite elites who have taken the reins of the country “have failed to rally other communities, especially the Shiites, to their cause.”In fact, the Maronite community, entrusted with the presidency of Lebanon, recognizes its share of responsibility for the disparity in the development and internal cohesion of the Lebanese people. A disparity that only President Fouad Chehab tried to correct. Unfortunately, the institutions he endowed Lebanon with were hijacked by a cross-community oligarchy that plundered the country and impoverished its population. The “balanced development of regions,” an effort for national integration through economic means, often touted in ministerial declarations, has remained an elusive dream to this day. Thus, for example, Lebanon has waited for years the creation of “regulatory authorities” in sectors such as electricity or air traffic, aimed at liberating them from patronage and nepotism, not to mention other suffering sectors like the justice system. Regarding the pivotal issue of war, and in the spirit of necessary impartiality to uphold coexistence, a commission has been formed, including former MP Farid Haykal el-Khazen, Maronite Archbishop of Beirut Boulos Abdel Sater, and Walid Ghayad, head of information at the patriarchal seat. Their official mandate is to address the rift in Maronite-Shiite relations triggered by Patriarch Rai’s statement. Will it be able to rise to the necessary historical standing to tackle all essential questions? Will it focus on the core issues, or will we once again become entangled in vague rhetoric and lose sight of the real problems for the sake of superficial unity?

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 08-09/2024
Israel orders residents to evacuate as tanks storm Gaza City districts
Nidal al-Mughrabi/Reuters/July 8, 2024
Israeli tanks advanced into the heart of Gaza City from different directions on Monday and Israel ordered Palestinian civilians to evacuate neighbourhoods after a night of bombardments which Gaza authorities said had killed dozens. Residents said the airstrikes and artillery barrages - which took place as multi-national negotiations for a ceasefire deal intensified - were among the heaviest attacks on the Gaza Strip in nine months of conflict between Israeli forces and Hamas militants. Gaza City, in the north of the Palestinian enclave, was one of the first areas that Israeli troops moved into at the start of the war. But fighting with militants still holding out there has persisted and civilians have sought shelter elsewhere, adding to multiple waves of displacement. Much of the city lies in ruins. Residents said neighbourhoods of Gaza City had been bombed throughout the night into the early morning hours. Several multi-storey buildings have been destroyed, they said. The Gaza Civil Emergency Service said it believed dozens of people were killed but emergency teams were unable to reach them because of ongoing offensives in Daraj and Tuffah in the east and Tel Al-Hawa, Sabra and Rimal further west. Gaza residents said tanks advanced from at least three directions on Monday and reached the heart of Gaza City, backed by heavy Israeli fire from the air and ground. That forced thousands of people out of their homes to look for safer shelter, which for many was impossible to find, and some slept on the roadside. One tank thrust pushed people towards the western road near the Mediterranean, residents said. "The enemy is behind us and the sea is in front of us, where we will we go?" said Abdel-Ghani, a Gaza City resident who did not give his full name. "Tank shells and missiles from the planes are falling on the roads and houses like hell from a volcano. People are running in all directions and no one knows where to go," Abdel-Ghani told Reuters via a chat app. The Israeli military said in a statement it was mounting an operation against militant infrastructure in the Gaza Strip and that it had taken more than 30 fighters out of action.Later on Monday, it issued new evacuation orders to the residents of Sabra, Rimal, Tel Al-Hawa and Daraj districts. "For your security, you must evacuate immediately to Deir al-Balah shelters in the humanitarian zone," it said in a social media post, referring to an area in central Gaza. The war was triggered on Oct. 7 when fighters led by Hamas, which controlled Gaza, attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures. Since then at least 38,193 Palestinians have been killed in the military offensive and 87,903 have been wounded, Gaza's health ministry said in an update on Monday. A total of 40 Palestinians were killed in the past 24 hours, the ministry said in a statement. Medics at the Al-Ahli Arab Baptist Hospital in Gaza City had to evacuate patients to the already crowded and under-equipped Indonesian Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip, Palestinian health officials said. The Israeli military said a route would be opened so civilians could evacuate from affected areas. It said fighters with Hamas, and allied group Islamic Jihad, were hiding behind civilian infrastructure to attack Israeli forces. The Palestinian Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades said they fired mortar bombs against Israeli forces during the raid in southwest Gaza City.
HOPES FOR A PAUSE
The new Israeli offensive comes as Egypt, Qatar and the United States stepped up efforts to mediate a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Hopes among Gaza residents of a pause in the fighting had revived after Hamas accepted a key part of a U.S. ceasefire proposal, prompting an official in the Israeli negotiating team to say there was a real chance of a deal. Hamas has dropped a demand that Israel first commit to a permanent ceasefire before it would sign an agreement. Instead, the militant group said it would allow negotiations to achieve that throughout the six-week first phase, a Hamas source told Reuters on Saturday. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the deal must not prevent Israel from resuming fighting until its war objectives are met. Those goals were defined at the start of the war as dismantling Hamas' military and governing capabilities, as well as returning Israeli hostages. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday it would be a huge mistake to stop the Israeli offensive now. Smotrich, who heads a pro-settler party which is part of Netanyahu's governing coalition, wrote on social media platform X: "Hamas is collapsing and begging for a ceasefire. This is the time to squeeze the neck until we crush and break the enemy." Hamas said the new Israeli offensive in Gaza City will not succeed in breaking them. "The arrogant enemy, which is practicing the ugliest forms of aggression and violations against unarmed civilians, with absolute backing from the U.S. administration will not succeed in breaking our steadfast people regardless of how much it escalates its crimes," the group said in a statement.

Bank of Israel Extends Rate Pause as War Complicates Next Move
Galit Altstein/Bloomberg/July 8, 2024
Israel’s central bank held interest rates for a fourth consecutive time, extending a pause likely to stretch for several months amid fears that fighting against regional militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah could escalate. The monetary committee kept its benchmark at 4.5% on Monday, in line with the forecasts of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Policymakers largely repeated their previous guidance, without indicating the likely direction of their next move. Alongside its decision, the central bank published fresh economic projections that indicated its research department now expects faster inflation and slower economic growth this year compared with forecasts from April. The latest outlook also shows the key rate at 4.25% in the second quarter of 2025, a more hawkish path than implied earlier. Speaking to reporters, Governor Amir Yaron said officials now assume a longer war and expect the conflict to wind down only in early 2025. The shekel slightly pared losses after the announcement and traded 0.2% weaker against the dollar. With Israel’s war against Hamas now in its 10th month, risks are growing of an all-out conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. While talks on a cease-fire deal in Gaza have resumed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is preparing for the possibility of a full-on war with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. How the security crisis develops will matter for the central bank, whose assessment since the beginning of the war in October has been that the conflict’s economic impact will gradually decrease as the year unfolds. Policymakers have already turned far more cautious following a quarter-point rate decrease to start the year. An escalation of hostilities across the northern border with Lebanon threatens further depreciation of the shekel, supply disruptions and a greater fiscal burden, all of which would intensify inflationary pressures. Government spending has already soared because of the war, putting Israel on track for one of its widest budget deficits this century. Finance Ministry data published Monday showed the 12-month trailing fiscal shortfall ballooned to to 7.6% of gross domestic product as of June, higher than the government’s estimate of 6.6% for the full calendar year of 2024. The uncertainty is spilling over into markets, with the yield on the government’s 10-year shekel bonds reaching a 13-year high of 5.2% this month. The shekel is down close to 4% against the dollar since the start of March, one of the worst performers among a basket of 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. “We expect the Bank of Israel to err on the side of caution and not offer any more rate cuts this year,” Barclays Plc economists including Zalina Alborova said before the decision on Monday. “Even in a scenario of geopolitical improvement, inflation pressure is likely to prevent the bank from delivering a cut.”Annual price growth is now at 2.8% — within the official target range but on track to exceed its 3% upper limit. Bank Hapoalim sees inflation at 3.3% over the next 12 months and Leader Capital Markets expects it at up to 3.4%, depending on the shekel’s value against the dollar. A longer wait for US interest rates to come down will likely delay the prospect of monetary easing in Israel, since a wider rate differential would threaten capital inflows and could undercut the local currency. Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting dialed back their expectations for the number of cuts they see this year. The US central bank has held its key policy rate at the highest level in more than two decades since last July. “These conditions do not allow for an interest rate reduction,” analysts at Bank Hapoalim’s financial division said in a report. “In a positive scenario assuming the cessation of hostilities, an interest rate cut will be back on the agenda toward the end of the year, but only after the US Fed commences loosening.”

For Palestinian prisoner, return to Gaza brings anguish and shattered dreams
Ramadan Abed/Reuters/July 8, 2024
During more than two decades in an Israeli prison, Palestinian Youssef Mikdad dreamed about one day returning to a prosperous Gaza Strip where he could make up for lost time with his children. But when Mikdad finally tasted freedom and set foot in Gaza last week, he found his house destroyed and his homeland reduced to rubble, dust and twisted metal by Israeli bombardments. Walking through neighbourhoods laid waste by air and artillery strikes, he came to Gaza's Mediterranean shoreline, where Palestinians displaced many times over by the Israeli offensive were living in tents on the beach.
Like every Gazan parent, he has to find a way to feed his family in a territory suffering shortages of food, fuel, power and medicine. Schools which would have provided an education to his grandchildren have been destroyed and few hospitals are functioning.
Mikdad's daughter Haya - his favourite child, he says - was just four years old when he was imprisoned. She perished in an Israeli airstrike on Gaza City in March, one of more than 38,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza since the start of the war. "I have five children, three sons and two daughters, this girl was the youngest and the best," he said. He received the devastating news during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan - which he observed behind bars for years - that Haya had been killed along with her husband and four children. "I didn't see her as a bride when she was married, but I longed to see her with her children. Every time I see a woman with young children, I think to myself this must be her," he said. Mikdad, 63, was seized by Israeli forces from his house in a Gaza City suburb during a raid in 2002. He was sentenced after he was convicted of being a member of Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the armed wing of the Fatah Palestinian faction. He served time in several Israeli prisons. He recalls how at one point Palestinian prisoners were allowed to run their own affairs in jail, as each side learned to respect the other. But the atmosphere changed radically after fighters led by the Palestinian group Hamas attacked communities in southern Israel on Oct. 7 last year, killing 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages back to Hamas-run Gaza. "Even animals have rights, but we humans for them didn't (have any rights). We have seen all forms of torture, even hunger," said Mikdad. "There was no food, water, papers or any ways of communication, there was nothing. Prisoners were humiliated and crushed for 24 hours (a day)." The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment about prison conditions. Widespread reports of mistreatment of detainees in Israeli prisons have added to international pressure on Israel for its conduct of the Gaza war, now in its tenth month. In May, the U.S. State Department said it was looking into allegations of Israeli abuse of Palestinian detainees. Hamas, like other Palestinian factions, has long called for the release of the roughly 6,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails, an issue that has been part of talks aimed at ending the war.

Gaza destruction likely helped push Hamas to soften cease-fire demands, several officials say
Jon Gambrell/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/July 8, 2024
Several officials in the Middle East and the U.S. believe the level of devastation in the Gaza Strip caused by a nine-month Israeli offensive likely has helped push Hamas to soften its demands for a cease-fire agreement. Hamas over the weekend appeared to drop its longstanding demand that Israel promise to end the war as part of any cease-fire deal. The sudden shift has raised new hopes for progress in internationally brokered negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday boasted that military pressure — including Israel’s ongoing two-month offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah — “is what has led Hamas to enter negotiations.” Hamas, an Islamic militant group that seeks Israel’s destruction and took control of Gaza in 2007, is highly secretive and little is known about its inner workings. But in recent internal communications seen by The Associated Press, messages signed by several senior Hamas figures in Gaza urged the group’s exiled political leadership to accept the cease-fire proposal pitched by U.S. President Joe Biden. The messages, shared by a Middle East official familiar with the ongoing negotiations, described the heavy losses Hamas has suffered on the battlefield and the dire conditions in the war-ravaged territory. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to share the contents of internal Hamas communications. It was not known if this internal pressure was a factor in Hamas’ flexibility. But the messages indicate divisions within the group and a readiness among top militants to reach a deal quickly, even if Hamas’ top official in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, may not be in a rush. Sinwar has been in hiding since the war erupted last October and is believed to be holed up in a tunnel deep underground. U.S. officials declined to comment on the communications. But a person familiar with Western intelligence who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter said the group’s leadership understands its forces have suffered heavy losses and that has helped Hamas move closer to a cease-fire deal. Two U.S. officials say the Americans are aware of internal divisions within Hamas and that those divisions, the destruction in Gaza or pressure from mediators Egypt and Qatar could have been factors in the militant group softening its demands for a deal. The U.S. officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the Biden administration’s view of the current situation. The Middle Eastern official shared details from two internal Hamas communications, both written by senior officials inside Gaza to the group’s exiled leadership in Qatar, where Hamas’ supreme leader, Ismail Haniyeh, is based. The communication suggested that the war had taken a toll on Hamas fighters, with the senior figures urging the militant’s political wing abroad to accept the deal despite Sinwar’s reluctance. Hamas spokesperson Jihad Taha dismissed any suggestions of divisions within the group. “The movement’s position is unified and is crystallized through the organizational framework of the leadership,” he said. The intelligence official showed the AP a transcript of the communications in Arabic, but declined to share specific details about how the information was obtained, or the raw form of the communications. The official said the communications took place in May and June and came from multiple senior officials inside the group’s military wing in Gaza. The messages acknowledged Hamas fighters had been killed and the level of devastation to the Gaza Strip wrought by the Israeli campaign in the enclave. They also suggest that Sinwar either isn’t fully aware of the toll of the fighting or isn’t fully communicating it to those negotiating outside of the territory. It was not known whether Haniyeh or any other top officials in Qatar had responded. Israeli officials declined to comment on the communications. Egypt and Qatar also had no immediate comment.
Egypt and Qatar have been working with the United States to broker a cease-fire and end the devastating nine-month war. After months of fits and starts, talks resumed last week and are scheduled to continue in the coming days. A deal is still not guaranteed. Netanyahu’s office announced over the weekend that “gaps still remain.” The U.S. officials said they are cautiously optimistic about the prospects for a cease-fire based on the latest developments, but stressed that numerous efforts had looked promising only to fall through. Still, the sides appear closer to a deal than they have been in months.
Israel launched the war in Gaza after Hamas’ October attack in which militants stormed into southern Israel, killed some 1,200 people — mostly civilians — and abducted about 250. Israel says Hamas is still holding about 120 hostages — about a third of them thought to be dead. Since then, the Israeli air and ground offensive has killed more than 38,000 people in Gaza, according to the territory’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians. The offensive has caused widespread devastation and a humanitarian crisis that has left hundreds of thousands of people on the brink of famine, according to international officials. The war in Gaza has prompted international legal scrutiny of Israel’s conduct, including a case at the top U.N. court on charges of genocide brought by South Africa and a request for arrest warrants against Netanyahu by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, who also sought warrants for Hamas leaders. Both Hamas and Egyptian officials confirmed Saturday that Hamas has dropped a key demand that Israel commit upfront to end the war. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected this demand, leaving the talks stalled for months. Instead, the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations, said the phased deal would start with a six-week cease-fire during which older, sick and female hostages would be released by Hamas in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Talks on a broader deal, including an end to the war, would only begin during this phase, they said. Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting until Israel destroys Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, even if hostages are freed.

Israeli tanks move on Gaza City in major attack as civilians seek shelter
Nidal al-Mughrabi/USA TODAY/July 8, 2024
Israeli forces bombarded Gaza City early on Monday and columns of tanks advanced into the heart of the city from different directions in what residents said was one of the heaviest attacks in the Palestinian territory since the start of the war. The Gaza Civil Emergency Service said it believed dozens of people were killed but emergency teams were unable to reach them because of ongoing offensives in Daraj and Tuffah in the east and Tel Al-Hawa, Sabra and Rimal further west. Residents said neighbourhoods in Gaza City, which lies in the north of the Gaza Strip, had been bombed throughout the night into the early morning hours. Several multi-floor buildings have been destroyed, they added. One Israeli tank thrust pushed people towards the western road near the Mediterranean Sea, residents said. More: Gaza ceasefire hopes rise as Israel says it will resume stalled negotiations. "The enemy is behind us and the sea is in front of us, where we will we go?" one Gaza City resident, who identified himself as Abdel-Ghani, told Reuters. "Tank shells and missiles from the planes are falling on the roads and houses like hell from a volcano. People are running in all directions and no one knows where to go," he said via a chat app. The Israeli military said in a statement it was mounting an operation against militant infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, and that it had taken out of action more than 30 fighters. The new Israeli offensive comes as Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. stepped up efforts to mediate a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas as the Gaza war entered its tenth month. The war was triggered on Oct. 7 when fighters led by Hamas, which controlled Gaza, attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures. More than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli military offensive since then, according to Gaza health officials. Gaza residents said tanks advanced from at least three directions on Monday and reached the heart of Gaza City, backed by heavy Israeli fire from the air and ground. That forced thousands of people out of their homes to look for safer shelter, which for many was impossible to find, and some slept on the roadside. Medics at the Al-Ahli Arab Baptist Hospital in Gaza City had to evacuate patients to the already crowded and under-equipped Indonesian Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip, Palestinian health officials said. An Israeli strike in the eastern suburb of Shejaia killed four Palestinians, medics said. Israel's military said it had warned civilians about its operations and it said a route would be opened so civilians could evacuate from affected areas. It said fighters with Hamas, and allied group Islamic Jihad, were hiding behind civilian infrastructure to attack Israeli forces. The Palestinian Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades said they fired mortar bombs against Israeli forces during the raid in southwest Gaza City.
Cear-fire talks continue
Hopes among Gaza residents of a pause in the fighting had revived after Hamas accepted a key part of a U.S. ceasefire proposal, prompting an official in the Israeli negotiating team to say there was a real chance of a deal. Hamas has dropped a demand that Israel first commit to a permanent ceasefire before it would sign an agreement. Instead, the militant group said it would allow negotiations to achieve that throughout the six-week first phase, a Hamas source told Reuters on Saturday. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the deal must not prevent Israel from resuming fighting until its war objectives are met. Those goals were defined at the start of the war as dismantling Hamas' military and governing capabilities, as well as returning Israeli hostages. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday it would be a huge mistake to stop the Israeli offensive now. Smotrich, who heads a pro-settler party which is part of Netanyahu's governing coalition, wrote on social media platform X: "Hamas is collapsing and begging for a ceasefire. This is the time to squeeze the neck until we crush and break the enemy. To stop now, just before the end, and let him recover and fight us again, is a senseless folly."

Gaza death toll could exceed 186,000, Lancet study finds
ARAB NEWS/July 08, 2024
LONDON: The death toll from Israel’s war on Gaza could exceed 186,000, according to a study published in the medical journal Lancet. The figure would represent almost 8 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.3 million, the study found. More than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its military assault on the strip in October, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. However, the Lancet study warned that the true number of deaths could likely be much higher due to the extensive destruction of health facilities, food distribution networks and other vital infrastructure. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees has also faced significant funding cuts, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. According to UN data, as of February this year, more than 10,000 bodies were believed to be buried under rubble, with 35 percent of Gaza’s buildings having been destroyed. “In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths,” it said. Using a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths for every direct death, the study said “it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable.”The Lancet study also addressed claims of data fabrication by Gaza’s Health Ministry, stating that Israeli intelligence, the UN and World Health Organization all find such accusations “implausible.”It said: “Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war. It is also a legal requirement.”

Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire
Reuters/Mon, July 8, 2024
The head of Israel's biggest opposition party said on Monday he would lend Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu his support in parliament to keep him in office if members of the ruling coalition quit over a ceasefire deal. Netanyahu has authorised his officials to resume negotiating a possible deal with Palestinian militant group Hamas to end the fighting in Gaza and release Israeli hostages seized on Oct. 7. Some far-right partners in his coalition have said they will quit if the war ends before Israel has eradicated Hamas and freed the hostages, an outcome that could bring down Netanyahu's government.
Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, said at a meeting of his parliamentary faction: "There's a hostages deal on the table. It is not true that Netanyahu has to choose between the hostages deal and the continuation of his tenure as prime minister." "Let him do the deal," Lapid said. "I promised him a safety net and I will keep that promise," he said, referring to a scenario if Netanyahu's coalition partners quit. He said that was a difficult decision to make, given his opposition to Netanyahu, but "the most important thing is to bring the hostages home."The two far-right parties in Netanyahu's coalition that are most implacably opposed to a ceasefire deal have a combined 13 seats in the Israeli parliament, while Lapid's party has 24 seats, according to the parliament's website.

Israeli forces push deeper into Gaza City in pursuit of militants. Thousands flee again
Samy Magdy And Wafaa Shurafa/DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP) /July 8, 2024
Israeli forces advanced deeper into the Gaza Strip's largest city in an incursion that the military said was aimed at militants who had regrouped there, sending thousands of Palestinians fleeing on Monday from an area ravaged in the early weeks of the nine-month-long war. The advance into Gaza City came as Israel and Hamas drew closer to bridging gaps in indirect talks over a cease-fire and hostage release. Israeli troops battled militants in areas that the army said had been largely cleared months ago in largely isolated northern Gaza. The military ordered evacuations ahead of the raids, but Palestinians say nowhere feels safe. Most of the population of 2.3 million has been displaced, often multiple times, and hundreds of thousands are packed into sweltering tent camps. Israel ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza, including Gaza City, in the opening weeks of the war and has prevented most people from returning. But hundreds of thousands of Palestinians remain, living in the shells of their homes or shelters. “We fled in the darkness amid heavy strikes,” said Sayeda Abdel-Baki, a mother of three who had sheltered at her relatives’ home in the Daraj neighborhood. “This is my fifth displacement.”Residents reported artillery and tank fire, as well as airstrikes. Gaza's Health Ministry, which has limited access to the north, did not immediately report casualties. Israel issued additional evacuation orders Monday for areas in other neighborhoods of central Gaza City, calling on residents to head south to the city of Deir al-Balah. Israel accuses Hamas and other militants of hiding among civilians. In Shijaiyah, a Gaza City neighborhood that has seen weeks of heavy fighting, the military said troops had raided and destroyed schools and a clinic that had been converted into militant compounds. Obstacles to a deal. Israel and Hamas appear to be the closest they have been in months to agreeing to a cease-fire deal that would pause the war in exchange for the release of dozens of Israelis captured by Hamas in the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war. But obstacles remain, even after Hamas agreed to relent on its key demand that Israel commit to ending the war as part of any agreement. A key part of that shift, officials told The Associated Press, is the level of destruction caused by Israel’s rolling offensive. Hamas still wants mediators to "guarantee” that negotiations conclude with a permanent cease-fire, according to two officials with knowledge of the talks. The current draft says the mediators — the United States, Qatar and Egypt — “will do their best” to ensure that negotiations lead to an agreement to wind down the war. Israel has rejected any deal that would force it to end the war with Hamas still intact — a condition Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated Sunday. The officials said there's also an impasse around whether Hamas should be allowed to choose the high-profile prisoners held by Israel that it wants released in exchange for the hostages. Some long-serving prisoners were convicted of killing Israelis, and Israel does not want Hamas to determine who is released. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media.
Bombing keeps responders from bodies
Inside Gaza, residents saw no end to their suffering. Maha Mahfouz fled her home with her two children and many neighbors in Gaza City’s Zaytoun neighborhood. She said their area was not included in the latest evacuation orders but “we are panicked because the bombing and gunfire are very close to us.”
Fadel Naeem, the director of the Al-Ahli hospital, said patients and their companions fled the facility in panic even though there was no evacuation order for the area around it. He said patients in critical condition had been evacuated to other hospitals in northern Gaza. The Israeli military said it had received intelligence that showed the area was housing militants from Hamas and the Islamic Jihad group. Mahmoud Bassal, a spokesman for the Civil Defense, first responders who operate under the Hamas-run government, said the neighborhoods of Tufah, Daraj and Shijaiyah had become inaccessible because of Israeli bombing. In a voice message, he said the military shelled houses in the Jaffa area of Gaza City and first responders “saw people lying on the ground and were not able to retrieve them because of the bombing.”
The war has killed more than 38,000 people in Gaza, according to the Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians in its count. The fighting has decimated large swaths of urban landscape and sparked a humanitarian catastrophe.
Hamas' cross-border raid on Oct. 7 killed 1,200 people in southern Israel, most of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities. The militants took roughly 250 people hostage. About 120 are still in captivity, with about a third said to be dead.

Three Gazans found dead after release from Israeli custody, relative and witness say
Hatem Khaled/GAZA (Reuters)/July 8, 2024
The handcuffed bodies of three Palestinian men freed from Israeli custody have been found near Gaza's border with Israel, and an uncle of one of them and a witness said they had been attacked by Israeli forces shortly after their release. Abdel Hadi Ghabayen, an uncle of one of the detainees, Kamel Ghabayen, said he set out at 5 a.m. on Sunday looking for his nephew following his arrest by Israeli forces on Saturday. "I found him left on the ground along with the other two martyrs. They were without clothes, and their hands had plastic cuffs put on them by the Israeli army," Ghabayen said. The bodies were found near the Israeli border fence on Sunday in the vicinity of the Karam Abu Salem (Kerem Shalom) crossing in southern Gaza, he said. Reuters could not independently confirm what happened to the three men or the reason for their arrest. The Israeli military did not respond for a request for comment on these accounts. Abdel Hadi Ghabayen said one of the men had lost a leg and his body was "in pieces" after what he said was an attack by Israeli forces carried out shortly after their release. Abdel Hadi Ghabayen said that when he tried to recover the man's dismembered leg the Israelis "started shooting at me, so I stopped." He later carried the bodies of the three on his truck to Nasser Hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis. The three -- Kamel Ghabayen, Mohammed Awad Ramadan Abu Hejazi and Ramadan Awad Ramadan Aby Hejaz -- were among several Palestinians detained on Saturday and held for questioning, according to one of the men, Mahmoud Abu Taha. Abu Taha said they came under fire shortly after their release. "We reached Karkar Street (in Gaza). After 10 minutes of being there, we found a bomb thrown at the people with me. Thank God I was at the front. The bomb hit 6 or 7 people who were detained with us. Thank God I am alive," he said. The war began on Oct. 7 when fighters led by Hamas, which controlled Gaza, attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures. More than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli military offensive since then, according to Gaza health officials.

An Iranian frigate was seen capsizing at port while next to merchant ships, in another black mark for the country's record of naval mishaps
Matthew Loh/Business Insider/July 8, 2024
An Iranian frigate capsized while undergoing repairs at Bandar Abbas, a coastal city in the Strait of Hormuz. State media reported that it took on water and lost balance due to a "technical failure." Several people were admitted to hospital after an Iranian warship capsized at the port city of Bandar Abbas on Sunday, Iran's state media reported. The Sahand, a domestically produced Moudge-class frigate, was undergoing repairs when it lost balance and partially sank, per the Mehr News Agency.The mishap was due to a "technical failure," Mehr reported. A separate report several hours later by the Islamic Republic News Agency cited the country's military saying water had leaked into the Sahand's tanks, causing the vessel to turn over. The military added in IRNA's report that the ship had since "returned to balance." Both news agencies are owned by the Iranian government, which described the vessel as a "destroyer." Photos released by the agencies show the Sahand floating on its side next to several docked merchant ships. Other images on social media appear to show the vessel tipping over.
The lasting damage sustained by the vessel is not immediately clear. The Sahand was launched in 2018 and is named after another Iranian ship that was destroyed by the US in 1988's Operation Praying Mantis. The original vessel was one of two Iranian naval ships sunk by the US Navy in retaliation for the mining of the guided missile frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts. Iranian media reports said the new Sahand is equipped with torpedoes, anti-air munitions, cruise missiles, a point-defense system, and close-range weapons that can fire up to 7,000 rounds per minute. Its capsizing on Sunday is the latest in a string of mishaps for Iran's navy in recent years, including a 2020 friendly fire incident involving a ship of a similar class. The Iranian frigate Jamaran was testing an anti-ship missile when it struck the support vessel Konarak in the Gulf of Oman, killing 19 sailors and injuring another 15. In late 2021, another Moudge-class frigate, the Talayieh, was videoed capsizing at a flooded dry dock in Bandar Abbas. In June of that year, the Kharg, one of Iran's largest naval vessels, caught fire and sank in the Gulf of Oman after firefighters tried for 20 hours to save the ship. It had embarked on a training mission at the time, local media reported. Another Moudge-class frigate, the Damavand, ran aground in 2018 and was damaged beyond repair. It had been launched just three years prior. In a Sunday report covering the Sahand's capsizing, Iranian state media channel Al-Alalam noted that the US also suffered a capsizing in 2022 involving a ship called USS The Sullivans. But USS The Sullivans is a museum ship that saw service in World War II and the Korean War, and was retired in 1965. It nearly sank in April 2022 due to a hull breach, but it was repaired and reopened for visits in August 2022.

Exclusive-Satellite photos show Iran expanding missile production, sources say
Jonathan Landay and Parisa Hafezi/WASHINGTON/DUBAI (Reuters)/July 8, 2024
Recent satellite imagery shows major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that two American researchers assessed are for boosting missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials. The enlargement of the sites follows an October 2022 deal in which Iran agreed to provide missiles to Russia, which has been seeking them for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, both members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel, according to U.S. officials. Images taken by commercial satellite firm Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both of which are located near Tehran. The images, reviewed by Reuters, show many of the structures are surrounded by large dirt berms. Such earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating highly combustible materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. The expansions began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October, Lewis said, based on images of the sites. Iran's arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, estimated at more than 3,000 missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads, experts say. Three Iranian officials, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed that Modarres and Khojir are being expanded to boost production of conventional ballistic missiles.
"Why shouldn't we?" said one official.
A second Iranian official said some of the new buildings would also allow a doubling of drone manufacturing. Drones and missile components would be sold to Russia, drones would be provided to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah, the source added. Reuters was unable independently to confirm the Iranian officials' comments. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the expansion of the complexes. Tehran has previously denied providing drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis. Hezbollah's media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said a boost in Iran's weapons manufacturing would not have any impact in Yemen because the Houthis develop and manufacture aircraft independent of Iran. Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs imagery with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington thinktank, as part of a Middlebury project that monitors Iranian missile infrastructure. "We know that Russia is on the hunt for low-cost missile capabilities, and it has gone to Iran and North Korea," said Lewis. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the transfer of North Korean missiles to Russia. The Russian embassy in Washington and North Korea's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment for this story. The two U.S. researchers said in separate interviews that it was not clear from the photos what kinds of missiles would be produced at the new facilities, which still appeared to be under construction. Any increase in Tehran's missile or drone production would be concerning to the United States, which has said that Iranian drones help sustain Russia's assault on Ukrainian cities, and to Israel as it fends off attacks from Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah. The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the reseachers' analysis. A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson declined to confirm their assessment, adding that the United States has implemented various measures, including sanctions, intended to constrain Iranian missile and drone production and exports. Reuters in February reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran denied providing the weapons. Washington said it could not confirm the transfers but it assumed Tehran intended to provide missiles to Moscow.
NEW BUILDINGS, DIRT BERMS
Shahid Modarres and Khojir are overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite paramilitary organization that plays a central role in Iran's missile and nuclear programs. It controls large segments of the Iranian economy and answers directly to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The complexes have long been associated with the development and production of Iran's short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and rockets for the country's space program. On Nov. 12, 2011, a massive explosion destroyed a large swath of Shadid Modarres associated with solid fuel missiles, killing 17 IRGC officers. They included Gen. Hassan Moqaddam, regarded by Iran as the "architect" of its ballistic missile program. Construction at Shahid Modarres, which began again after the 2011 explosion, accelerated last year, the second Iranian official said. "I think the Iranians may have chosen not to berm the buildings (before the explosion) because they didn’t want to draw attention to them," said Lewis. "They learned the hard way." Eveleth and Lewis said the sites' long history with Iran's missile program – Shahid Modarres is considered by some experts as its birthplace - and the numerous dirt berms support their assessment that Tehran is expanding ballistic missile production. "When we see where you basically have an entire production line that is bermed like that, that's usually missiles," said Eveleth.

NATO leaders are descending on Washington. Here's what to know
Matthew Lee/The Associated Press/Mon, July 8, 2024
NATO leaders meet this week for a summit commemorating the 75th anniversary of the military alliance, which has never been larger and more focused but is also facing potentially existential threats from outside and within. If Russia’s war in Ukraine, challenges posed by an increasingly aggressive China, and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza weren’t enough, some key members' commitment to defend their allies is coming under question. There is deep uncertainty over President Joe Biden’s ability to beat his predecessor, NATO skeptic Donald Trump, in November to lead the most powerful member of the alliance. While Biden’s political troubles are stirring concerns at home and abroad, countries in Europe are facing their own issues with a rise of far-right populism, particularly in France and Hungary, threatening what had been a bedrock pillar of post-World War II security and stability. Here’s what to watch for at the three-day summit:
All eyes on Biden
Reeling from his disastrous June 27 debate performance and struggling to hold his reelection campaign together, Biden says people should look to his interactions at the NATO summit for proof that he is still strong and vigorous enough to lead.
Diplomats and analysts say they will be watching closely — although NATO leaders accept they have no control over American elections and are unlikely to weigh in publicly.
“The outcome of the November election matters enormously for NATO and pretty much all heads of state and government in the alliance feel the same way, even if they refuse to discuss it,” said Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University. The prospect of Trump returning to the White House has alarmed many in Europe who fear he may reduce U.S. commitments to NATO or Ukraine — or pull them completely. “There is nothing that Biden’s NATO counterparts can do to affect that outcome, so they are in the uncomfortable position of being observers to a process that is critical to the alliance but over which they have no control,” Rathke said. Biden, who has taken credit for strengthening NATO and resisting Russian President Vladimir Putin, said his confidence and competence would be on display. But he will be under tremendous pressure to quell growing concern that he is not up to the job, as either de facto head of NATO or commander in chief of the alliance’s most important member. “The unpredictability of what (Trump) might do and how quickly in office he might do it, leaves people on edge,” Rathke said. “It would be a significant jolt to NATO if he were to win.”
But it's also not all about Joe
As much as the spotlight will be on Biden, 31 other leaders have a voice in NATO decision-making. The summit will be British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first appearance on the world stage just days after winning a resounding victory in elections.
Although Starmer has signaled continued strong support for both NATO and Ukraine, gains made by far-right parties, as well as left-wing groups opposed to Western support for Israel’s war in Gaza, may dilute London’s influence. Of more concern is turmoil in France, where President Emmanuel Macron's government is facing political uncertainty after left-wing parties united to beat a surging far right in legislative elections but still didn't win a majority in parliament. The far-right party, which is skeptical of NATO, greatly increased the number of seats it holds. And there are Hungary and Turkey, the last two NATO members to hold out on allowing the newest members, Finland and Sweden, to join the alliance. Viktor Orban of Hungary raised alarm bells by visiting Russia last week for talks with Putin, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains on good terms with the Kremlin.
NATO's future
In many respects, the alliance has never looked stronger. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, NATO gained those two members, bringing the total to 32. At the same time, Eastern and Central European members closer to Russia’s borders — the Baltic states, Poland and the Czech Republic — have stepped up support for Ukraine and NATO as an institution. But NATO is fragile. Its policies must be made by unanimous consensus, and political upheaval in capitals hinders future decision-making. NATO leaders are expected once again to reaffirm their “open door” policy — that membership is open to any country meeting the requirements. But Ukraine won't see its hoped-for invitation this week. “In some ways, this NATO summit is coming as sort of the best of times and the worst of times. The best of times, in the sense that the alliance knows what it’s about,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it’s also sort of the worst of times — obviously because of the war in Ukraine, challenges of ramping up European defense spending, concerns about the reliability of the United States,” he said. Defense spending has been one of Trump’s biggest complaints about NATO, and he has repeatedly suggested that the U.S. wouldn't defend countries that don’t meet the agreed-upon goal of spending 2% of gross domestic product on defense.NATO officials have championed a significant increase — to 23 — in the number of allies meeting that commitment. Several more are expected to say they're meeting that standard during the summit.
Keeping up support for Ukraine
Many NATO allies in the past year have signed their own security agreements with Ukraine to provide long-term guarantees of assistance for Kyiv to defend itself from Russia and prevent possible future attacks. Russia made significant battlefield gains over the past several months during congressional delays in approving U.S. military aid. Those have been overcome, and a new multibillion-dollar package is expected to be announced this week. But Ukraine’s goal is joining NATO, placing it under the alliance’s Article 5 collective security umbrella that obligates other members to come to its defense if attacked. Membership is highly unlikely while the conflict rages. However, the allies plan to present Ukraine with a “bridge” to membership that would further lay out next steps. In the meantime, countries are expected to pledge new military and economic support. Billions of dollars have already been sent to Ukraine, and officials say more is coming. Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday that contributions of roughly $43 billion per year should be the baseline moving ahead.
Don't forget about China
NATO allies also are focused on threats posed by China, including persistent disinformation campaigns aimed at sowing doubts in democratic systems. And they have repeatedly complained that Chinese sales of some tools and technology have allowed Moscow to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base to wage war in Ukraine. The U.S., in particular, has called out China for pursuing policies that threaten European security as Beijing seeks broader commercial relations with the countries of Europe. For the third year in a row, leaders or top officials from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea will attend the NATO summit for discussions on how to deal with Chinese threats in the South China Sea and beyond.

Armenian foreign minister to travel to Washington for NATO summit
TBILISI (Reuters)/July 8, 2024
Armenia's foreign minister will travel to Washington on July 9-10 during the NATO summit, his ministry said on Monday, as the country, once a top Russian ally, seeks to build closer ties with the West. "Minister (Ararat) Mirzoyan will take part in an event with NATO partners on the sidelines of the NATO summit, as well as in other events dedicated to the 75th anniversary of the organisation. Bilateral meetings are also planned," a spokesperson for the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app. The NATO summit kicks off in the U.S. capital on Tuesday. Armenia is not a member, belonging instead to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation alliance. Until recently Russia's closest ally in the South Caucasus region, Yerevan has increased ties with Western countries as its relations with Moscow have soured over what Armenia sees as Russia's failure to defend it from neighbouring Azerbaijan.
Armenia's defence ministry said on Saturday it would hold joint military exercises with the United States in Armenia on July 15-24, focusing on tasks related to peacekeeping missions. Last week Washington postponed exercises planned for this month in Georgia, Armenia's neighbour, long a close U.S. ally but lately seen orienting closer to Moscow.

US' not ready to resume nuclear talks after Iran elections
Reuters/July 8, 2024
The White House said on Monday it did not expect any change in Iran’s behavior after the election of a relative moderate, Masoud Pezeshkian, for president. White House spokesperson John Kirby also said the United States was not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran under the new president.

US State Dept condemns 'savage' attack on Kyiv children's hospital
AFP/July 8, 2024
The United States on Monday denounced as "savage" a strike on a children's hospital in Kyiv, and said it believed it was deliberate by Russia. "Russia unleashed another savage missile attack on civilians," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters.

Russian missiles kill 36 in Ukraine, gut Kyiv children’s hospital
AFP/July 08, 2024
KYIV: Russia struck cities across Ukraine on Monday with a missile barrage that killed three dozen people and ripped open a children’s hospital in Kyiv, an assault condemned as a ruthless attack on civilians. Dozens of volunteers including hospital staff and rescue workers dug through debris from the Okhmatdyt paediatric hospital in a desperate search for survivors after the rare day-time bombardment, AFP journalists on the scene saw. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched dozens of missiles toward five towns and cities, in the south and east of the country, as well as the capital.
Ukrainian officials said 33 people were killed and another 137 wounded in the wave of 38 missiles. Three more were killed by Russian fire in Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. The air force said air defense systems had downed 30 projectiles.
Zelensky called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council over the barrage and urged Ukraine’s allies to deliver “a stronger response to the blow that Russia has once again delivered on our population, on our land and on our children.”
The UN condemned the “unconscionable” Russian strikes while the EU slammed Moscow for “ruthlessly” targeting civilians and the French foreign ministry called the bombardment of a children’s hospital “barbaric.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described the attack as “abhorrent.”Kyiv said the children’s hospital had been struck by a Russian cruise missile with components produced in NATO member countries and announced a day of mourning in the capital. Russia hit back claiming the extensive missile damage in Kyiv was caused by Ukrainian air defense systems. Moscow said its forces had struck their “intended targets,” which it added were only defense industry and military installations. Medical staff acted quickly to move patients and personnel to the facility’s basement after air raid sirens rang out over Kyiv on Monday. “For some reason, we always thought that Okhmatdyt was protected,” said Nina, a 68-year-old hospital employee. “We were 100 percent sure that they would not hit here,” she told AFP, as she described the frantic rush as staff moved children with IV drips to the bunker. Officials in Kyiv said the attack had also damaged several residential buildings and an office block in Kyiv where AFP reporters saw cars on fire and shredded trees in charred courtyards. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, said three of its electrical substations had been destroyed or damaged in Kyiv. Russian strikes on electricity infrastructure have already halved Ukrainian generation capacity in recent weeks compared to one year ago. Russian forces have repeatedly targeted the capital with massive barrages since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and the last major attack on Kyiv with drones and missiles was last month. The emergency services said 22 people were killed in Kyiv on Monday, including at both medical facilities hit in the attack and that another 72 had been wounded. In Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvyi Rig, which has been repeatedly targed by Russian bombardment, the strikes killed at least 10 and wounded over 41, officials there said. In Dnipro, a city of around one million people in the same region, one person was killed and six more were wounded, the region’s governor said, when a high rise residential building and petrol station were hit. And in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces have taken a string of villages in recent weeks, the regional governor said three people were killed in Pokrovsk — a town that had a pre-war population of around 60,000 people. “This shelling targeted civilians, hit infrastructure, and the whole world should see today the consequences of terror, which can only be responded to by force,” the head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, Andriy Yermak, wrote on social media. Zelensky and other officials in Kyiv have been urging Ukraine’s allies to send more air defense systems, including Patriots, to the war-battered country to help fend off deadly Russian aerial bombardment.
“Russia cannot claim ignorance of where its missiles are flying and must be held fully accountable for all its crimes,” Zelensky said in another post on social media.

Syrians in Turkey fear for future after Erdogan plans talks with Assad
Burcu KarakasISTANBUL (Reuters)/Mon, July 8, 2024
President Tayyip Erdogan's sudden plan to invite his estranged Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad for talks has raised fears among Syrians in Turkey of being sent back, a week after a spate of anti-migrant violence already left them shaken.
Ankara severed ties with Damascus in 2011 after Syria's civil war began and Turkish forces backed anti-Assad forces in the north. But in the last two weeks Erdogan has stressed the need for reconsiliation with Turkey's neighbour. On Sunday he was quoted as saying he would invite Assad "any time" to work on returning to past relations with Syria, which has been severed by the war that drew in the U.S., Russia, Turkey and several armed groups. "There are fears that Erdogan will make a deal with Assad and send the Syrians back" to Damascus-held parts of the country, said Samir Alabdullah, of the non-profit Harmoon Centre for Contemporary Studies in Istanbul. "There are also those who fear they will be stripped of their Turkish citizenship," he said of some of Turkey's more than three million Syrian war migrants. Turkey host more refugees than any other nation.The number of Syrian arrivals has worried Turks, who wonder if they will ever return home, prompting Erdogan to promise talks and an eventual "honourable" voluntary return for most. Ahmad, 19, a Syrian student in Istanbul's Eyupsultan district, said his family is considering selling their properties in Turkey due to the anti-immigrant unrest. "They are scared even though they have Turkish citizenship," he said, declining to give a surname for security reasons. In Istanbul's densely populated Sultanbeyli district, which houses many Syrian refugees, residents said attackers broke the windows of a Syrian-owned barber shop and chanted anti-immigrant slogans. A Syrian mother said her son, 8, now "wants to stay indoors because he believes people might do us harm". Erdogan said public order is a red line for the country. Syria has said any normalization in ties can only come after Turkey agrees to pull out thousands of troops from the rebel-held areas - a precondition Ankara has called unacceptable, citing security concerns over Syrian Kurdish militants. The Syrian Network for Human Rights, a UK-based advocacy group, said on Friday Syria is not safe for the return of millions of refugees from Turkey.
Last week, Erdogan - who had somewhat hardened his stance on migrants ahead of presidential elections last year - has said that 670,000 people have returned to settlements in northern Syria and another 1 million people are expected to return.

Biden Urges Democrats to Support His Reelection
This Is Beirut./July 08/2024 
Joe Biden urged Democratic lawmakers on Monday to either back his reelection campaign or challenge him at the party convention next month as the US president’s reelection bid entered a critical week. The 81-year-old doubled down on his defiance of calls to step aside after a disastrous debate against Republican rival Donald Trump last month turbocharged fears that he is too old to serve a second term. Biden will be under extra scrutiny this week as he hosts a summit of NATO leaders in Washington, with many allies seeking reassurance amid polls forecasting that the isolationist Trump will win in November. Biden called in to MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” television program to say that he was “confident” that the “average voter out there still wanted Joe Biden.” Sounding angry in the telephone interview, Biden said he was “getting so frustrated by the elites… in the party.”“Any of these guys that don’t think I should run — run against me. announce for president, challenge me at the convention,” he added. In a blitz of action to start the week, Biden also penned a lengthy letter to Democratic Party lawmakers, saying “I decline” to stand down. “I am firmly committed to staying in the race,” Biden wrote. “The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end.”
NATO Summit
Biden must overcome concerns sparked by the debate, during which he repeatedly lost his train of thought, mangled his syntax, and spoke with a raspy voice. He has blamed jetlag and a cold. But on Sunday, four senior congressmen said on a call with party lawmakers that it was time for Biden to bow out, according to US media. Democrats this week return from a brief recess to Capitol Hill under pressure to either fall in line behind the president or urge him to step aside. Tuesday, when the NATO summit begins, could prove a turning point: party lawmakers are expected to hold their regular caucus meeting, which could coalesce any bid to force him out. Biden’s performance at the summit, marking the 75th anniversary of the NATO alliance, will also be closely watched. He is due to attend several meetings and give his first press conference since the debate debacle. Many European countries are fearful of the return of Trump, as the 78-year-old has long criticized the defense alliance, voiced admiration for Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, and insisted he could bring about a quick end to the war in Ukraine.
Busy Schedule
After a barnstorming day of campaign events in swing state Pennsylvania on Sunday, Biden has no public events scheduled for Monday, which he is expected to spend preparing for the summit. First Lady Jill Biden, a fierce defender of the president, is scheduled to campaign for him instead in Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. On Friday, the president picks up the campaign trail once more, heading for the battleground state of Michigan, before going to his beachside home in Rehoboth, Delaware. With election day just four months away and the party convention in mid-August, the clock is ticking on any move to replace Biden as the nominee. Biden and his team appear determined to dig in for the siege, with the campaign unveiling an intense schedule for later in July, including an avalanche of TV spots and trips to key states. With AFP

Houthis claim to target Israel's Eilat in coordination with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Reuters/July 8, 2024
Yemen's Houthi group said on Monday that it carried out a joint military operation with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, targeting the Israeli coastal city of Eilat "with several drones."In a statement, they said, "The operation successfully achieved its objectives."

Yemeni minister says Houthis abducted 70 Yemenis, including 18 UN staff
SAEED AL-BATATI/Arab News/July 08, 2024
AL-MUKALLA: Yemen’s human rights minister demanded on Monday that the UN close its offices in Sanaa and shift its workers to the southern city of Aden to safeguard them from the Houthis’ escalating crackdown. Ahmed Arman told Arab News that the number of Yemeni personnel abducted by the Houthis during their continuing crackdown has risen to 70, and the Houthis have broadened their campaign to include employees of public institutions. “We urge the United Nations to shut its Sanaa offices, boycott talks with the Houthis, and transfer humanitarian relief from Houthi-controlled regions to the legitimate government crossings and ports,” the Yemeni minister said. Since late May, the Houthis have attacked the homes and offices of Yemenis working for the UN Yemen envoy’s office, the World Food Programme, the UN Development Programme, UNESCO, and other UN agencies, as well as Yemenis working for the US-funded National Democratic Institute, Partners Yemen, the German-funded GIZ, and Resonate Yemen. The Houthis also seized former Yemeni personnel at the US, Japanese, and Dutch embassies in Yemen, as well as Ahmed Hussein Al-Nunu, a senior official and educationalist at the Ministry of Education in Sanaa. Arman said that the number of abducted persons has increased from 50 in the early days of the operation to 70 presently, including five women and 18 UN personnel, who were held incommunicado at an intelligence and security detention facility in Sanaa. The arrests occurred as the Houthis claimed to have unearthed an espionage network connected to the US and Israel, which was responsible for transferring important military intelligence to the two countries while also causing damage to Yemen’s education, agricultural, and health sectors. At the same time, international rights groups and UN officials have urged the Houthis to free the workers, saying that the militia’s persecution of foreign relief organizations is exacerbating Yemen’s humanitarian crisis. CARE International, Oxfam, and Save the Children repeated their request in a joint statement on Sunday for the Houthis to provide information on the kidnapped workers and release them, saying that the “unprecedented” crackdown will delay relief deliveries to Yemen’s 18.2 million people. “Humanitarian organizations and aid workers dedicate their efforts to support the people of Yemen and do so by abiding with humanitarian principles,” the three organizations that operate in Yemen said in the statement. “Targeting of humanitarian, human rights, and development workers in Yemen must stop. All those detained must be immediately released,” they said. On Sunday, UN Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg reiterated the same call for the Houthis to free the workers and halt their human rights violations against Yemenis in regions under their control. “He specifically repeated the demand for the immediate and unconditional release of UN personnel and aid, and civil society workers who were arbitrarily detained in Sanaa and continue to be held in incommunicado detention,” Grundberg’s office said in a statement. Meanwhile, the US Central Command said on Monday that its forces destroyed two drones in Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen, while US-led marine task forces intercepted two Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden in the last 24 hours.
This comes as maritime security groups that monitor ship attacks have not reported any new attacks in international trade lanes off Yemen in the last seven days, despite the militia saying it would increase its anti-ship campaign in support of the Palestinian people. Since November, the Houthis have carried out over 100 drone, missile, and drone boat strikes on commercial and navy ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean. The Houthis claim they solely target Israel-linked ships to pressure Israel to halt its war in the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 08-09/2024
Why Are Arabs Whitewashing Iran-Backed Terrorist Organizations?
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./July 08/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/07/131521/
By removing Hezbollah from its terror list, the Arab League has sent a message to Iran and its terror proxies that they have a green light to pursue their terrorist attackers not only against Israel, but also against some of the Arab countries, especially the Gulf states.
Many Lebanese citizens and politicians are convinced that Hezbollah, together with the mullahs in Iran, are determined to destroy Lebanon by dragging it into war with Israel
Every child in Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East knows that the Lebanese army, along with UNIFIL forces, have failed to secure the border with Israel and combat terrorism.
"... Americans don't know... that there was an agreement signed [for Lebanon's undersea gas fields] between international companies, including American companies, European companies, all this under the umbrella of the Iran Deal... All these capitalists and companies who want to make money... are pressuring everybody to respect a ceasefire but also a status quo [in Lebanon]. Now, who loses? The Israelis and the Lebanese. The Israelis, if you put pressure on them. [saying] don't do any action [against Hezbollah], Hezbollah will reinforce and reinforce and they will pull another October 7 from the north against Israel. And the Lebanese, once Hezbollah is protected from Israel... they'll go and finish off the... Christians, Druze, Sunnis who oppose Hezbollah." — Walid Phares, Middle East expert, X.com, July 2, 2024.
By removing Hezbollah from its terror list, the Arab League has sent a message to Iran and its terror proxies that they have a green light to pursue their terrorist attackers not only against Israel, but also against some of the Arab countries, especially the Gulf states.
In a surprise and controversial move, the Arab League, which has 22 member states, announced last month that it no longer classifies the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon as a terrorist organization. The announcement was made by Assistant Secretary-General of the Arab League, Hossam Zaki, who recently visited the Lebanese capital of Beirut.
Zaki explained that previous decisions of the Arab League to label Hezbollah a terrorist organization "led to cutting off communication with it."
The Arab League, he argued, does not have official terrorist lists and its efforts do not include classifying entities as terrorist organizations. "The [Arab] member states of the League agreed that the label of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization should no longer be employed," Zaki said.
In 2016, the Arab League declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization – a week after a similar move by Arab Gulf states.
The latest decision by the Arab League to remove Hezbollah from its terrorist list came amid growing concern in Lebanon that the militia and its patrons in Iran are seeking to drag the country into a devastating war with Israel. The decision, in addition, came as Arabs in the Gulf continue to express fear about the role Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, are playing in instigating instability and insecurity in their countries, especially during the "window of opportunity" before the presidential election in the United States this November. US President Joe Biden has failed, over three years, to demonstrate strong deterrence; this failure may be interpreted as an invitation to try to destroy Israel while the short opening still presents itself.
By removing Hezbollah from its terror list, the Arab League has sent a message to Iran and its terror proxies that they have a green light to pursue their terrorist attackers not only against Israel, but also against some of the Arab countries, especially the Gulf states.
Since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, Hezbollah terrorists and their Palestinian allies – Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad – have fired thousands of rockets, exploding drones and mortars towards Israel. The war in the Gaza Strip erupted after thousands of Hamas terrorists and ordinary Gazan "civilians" breached the border with Israel and murdered, raped, beheaded and burned alive hundreds of Israelis.
The Arab League's decision to remove Hezbollah from its terrorist list coincided with an online campaign by many Lebanese against the terrorist militia for using Lebanon as a springboard to attack Israel. They fear that the Arab League's decision will embolden Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The latter two groups have hundreds of terrorists in Lebanon.
"Lebanon does not want war [with Israel]" is one of several hashtags that have been trending on social media platforms for the past few weeks. Many Lebanese citizens and politicians are convinced that Hezbollah, together with the mullahs in Iran, are determined to destroy Lebanon by dragging it into war with Israel. They have also long been accusing Hezbollah of creating a state-within-a-state in Lebanon and undermining both the Lebanese army and state institutions.
"In Lebanon, we have an Iranian terrorist militia [Hezbollah] that has assaulted the sovereignty of the state," complained Mirna Abou Assaly, a Lebanese social media user.
The Lebanese army, which has long been backed by the US, has done virtually nothing to disarm Hezbollah or prevent it from using Lebanese territory -- or territory prohibited to it by UN Resolution 1701, ten miles north of the Israeli border -- to attack Israel. That is why it is bizarre to read what the US State Department published in 2022:
"U.S. security assistance for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is a key component of U.S. Lebanon policy to strengthen Lebanon's sovereignty, secure its borders, counter internal threats, and disrupt terrorist facilitation. Key areas of cooperation include border security, maritime security, defense institution building, arms transfers, and counterterrorism."
Every child in Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East knows that the Lebanese army, along with UNIFIL forces, have failed to secure the border with Israel and combat terrorism. What has the Lebanese army done to stop Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad from firing rockets and missiles at Israel? Does the Lebanese army dare to ask the terrorists to withdraw from the border with Israel? Did the Lebanese army stop Hezbollah from sending terrorists to fight against the Syrian opposition in Syria? Has the Lebanese army done anything to stop the entry of Iranian weapons into Lebanon? Sadly, no.
Walid Phares, a Lebanese-American foreign policy expert and academic, said that Iranian influencers in Washington may have made the suggestion to remove Hezbollah as a terrorist organization to keep the status quo in Lebanon and prevent a looming war with Israel.
"Phares explained that capitalists linked to international gas companies may benefit economically from declaring Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, as they can sign energy deals with Lebanon to exploit offshore gas fields."
Phares wrote further on X:
"#IranDeal influence & the international gas companies scored a symbolic victory to "protect" a terror force versus making gains in the EastMed. Americans are not yet aware of the power of the "Deal" signed by the #ObamaBiden adm in 2015."
Phares said in an interview with the Iran International:
"... Americans don't know... that there was an agreement signed [for Lebanon's undersea gas fields] between international companies, including American companies, European companies, all this under the umbrella of the Iran Deal... All these capitalists and companies who want to make money... are pressuring everybody to respect a ceasefire but also a status quo [in Lebanon]. Now, who loses? The Israelis and the Lebanese. The Israelis, if you put pressure on them. [saying] don't do any action [against Hezbollah], Hezbollah will reinforce and reinforce and they will pull another October 7 from the north against Israel. And the Lebanese, once Hezbollah is protected from Israel... they'll go and finish off the... Christians, Druze, Sunnis who oppose Hezbollah."
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora criticized the Arab League's decision to remove Hezbollah from its terror list as "wrong" and called on Arab states to stop giving "free gifts" to the terrorists. Siniora, like many of his fellow citizens, pointed out that Lebanon does not want another war with Israel. He noted that his country is already suffering from an economic crisis, as well as the loss of Arab backing.
Lebanese politician Fares Saeed denounced the Arab League's decision:
"I want to remind the Arab League that the Lebanese constitution does not allow an armed militia to operate in the country on orders from Iran... If Hezbollah wants to be part of the state, it should ask the parliament to amend the constitution. We know that Hezbollah controls all aspects of life in Lebanon and its members have been convicted of murdering a Lebanese prime minister [Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005]."
Some Gulf Arabs have also expressed resentment over the Arab League's decision, saying that their countries have suffered for many years from the terrorist agenda adopted by Hezbollah and its support and training of groups seeking to undermine security and stability.
Saudi political analyst Mohammed al-Sa'ed wrote:
"While acknowledging the weakness of some of the Arab League's economic and cultural roles, it has never been a voice for organizations involved in terrorist acts, nor a platform through which those organizations deliver their terrorist instructions.
"Can we imagine that [Al-Qaeda leaders] Al-Zawahiri or Osama bin Laden sitting the League's meeting table, or that [ISIS leader] Al-Zarqawi represents Iraq, and [ISIS leader] Al-Baghdadi represents Syria, or perhaps we find [Hezbollah secretary-general] Hassan Nasrallah, whose hands are stained with the blood of the Syrians and the Lebanese, addressing the Arabs and the world from the seat of Lebanon at the Arab League? What a crime against Arab history and the history of the Arab League. It is shocking that there are those who want to whitewash these terrorist organizations that have shed innocent blood in most of the Arab world."
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. The work of Bassam Tawil is made possible through the generous donation of a couple of donors who wished to remain anonymous. Gatestone is most grateful.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
**Enclosed Picture: Permanent Representatives of the Arab League member states at the organization's headquarters in Cairo, Egypt on April 3, 2024.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20768/arab-league-whitewashing-hezbollah

The Weakness of the Western Model or the Absence of any Other?
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2024
Many are eulogizing the West’s liberal parliamentary model today. They are armed with an array of arguments: its foreign policies- especially its position on the war in Gaza, the results of the recent French elections, Donald Trump potentially making his way back to the White House, and the emergence of stark economic inequalities. If Joe Biden is the most prominent current representative of the West, his performance, as seen in his recent debate with Trump, is a powerful reflection of the failure of the Western model he represents. Some take things further, arguing (rightly) that the increasing signs of the West’s weakness, as well as the declining influence of its policies on the global stage, partially stem from the weakness and diminishing appeal of this model itself. That this model is undergoing one of the most severe and complicated crises is beyond dispute, regardless of how truly consequential this or that factor may actually be. However, this assertion reflects the dire state of the world more than it points to a viable alternative. This is not the result of a dogmatic or sentimental attachment to liberal democracy; rather, it stems from a lack of viable models that others could rally around, let alone get excited about.
Since 1917 and the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, our world has seen a series of models presented as alternatives to the West’s, all of them claiming superiority. We know how much weight the communist system, since Lenin’s era and especially under Khrushchev, put behind its bet that it would compete with and surpass the West economically and industrially, as well as generate higher rates of growth. Only seven decades later, however, we heard the death bell of this model that had been imposed on a block of several European countries and imported by military regimes and police states in the “Third World.” Today, the Soviet model exists only in a few sad, isolated, and impoverished states.
In turn, the fascist model raised the second challenge, presenting values such as democracy, liberalism, enlightenment, and equality as heretical breaches that presented obstacles to the unity of the nation and prevented the people from rallying around a charismatic leader. From the trash in the dustbin of history and its most primitive and irrational ideas, Fascism created a racist ideology whose eradication, along with its armies and states, required an immensely costly world war.
While the independent Third World countries whose collective consciousness blended nationalism and socialism failed to present a model, Khomeini's Iran took on this task. Like the experiments with fascism, it positioned its "revolution" in opposition to the Western model, and also like those experiments, it presented its "revolution" as being antithetical to revolution in its modern iteration. Before modernity, the term "revolution" had no political connotation; it referred to the movement of stars and celestial bodies. Only later did it come to imply human agency and pertain to our role in making and changing history. Just as fascism confiscated this role from people, placing it in the hands of a leader and race, Khomeinism put history in the hands of absolute transcendent forces that we have no control over. Ultimately, the Iranian model resulted in an experience of spectacular impoverishment and subjugation, both of bodies and minds. While post-communist Russia has failed to become a model, with its power reduced to relative military might that allowed it to intimidate smaller neighbors, China, the non-communist communist state, has managed to build a model often considered to be a competitor which rivals that of the West. Despite its immense successes, it seems that China continues to struggle with at least three major issues that have prevented its model from becoming a successful alternative.
It is weighed down by the total split between its economy and the absence of politics and laws, the gap between its status as a technological and industrial giant but a midget of culture and the production of images, and its tensions with neighboring countries (like the Philippines, Australia, and Vietnam...), hindering its ability to play a strong role globally. Moreover, this list of criticisms made of the countries that follow the Western model is never directed at those who have adopted other models. Indeed, they do not have these values and standards in the first place, and so they are not subjected to the kinds of stringent evaluations that are put to the West, precisely because it is the only model. In other words, it seems that the absence of a non-Western model is more worrying than the upheaval the Western model is undergoing, although the hasty verdicts may not be entirely justified. The recent British elections suggest that not all the paths to developing this model are closed; meanwhile, victorious populist right-wing movements, as in Italy, have committed to the peaceful transfer of power.
Nevertheless, the most significant manifestation of democracy's crisis might be the question of its universality and the contraction of its readiness to accommodate populations of non-European origins. This is not a simple matter, it grants democracy a greater focus on security and narrows its base, taking it back to an earlier, less liberal, phase in its development, but it is not necessarily the knockout blow many are predicting today.

Can We Compare Elections?
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2024
The British elections gave the Labour Party a historic victory following 14 years of Conservative rule. President Emmanuel Macron lost in the first round of the snap legislative elections in France to the right.
The debate about President Joe Biden's health and his capacity for running for re-election in the United States continues. Meanwhile, some are talking about the Iranian elections and the implications of the results. However, is this comparison logical or tenable? Of course not.
We can compare the United States, Britain, and France with one another. But comparing either of them to Iran is fundamentally misleading. That is not to say that the Iranian elections are unimportant. However, they are crucial for understanding how one man, the Supreme Leader, thinks and how Iranian society accepts that way of thinking. The comparison is illogical because it is a talking point of Iranian propaganda, which claims that the country holds real elections, which is not true. Everyone knows that over the stages leading up to those elections, a council appointed by the Supreme Leader controls the selection process, determining who can and cannot run.
Moreover, the Supreme Leader and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) hold the reins, make the decisions, as well as in shaping the policies of Iran. This means that nothing is really going to change, and Iran pursues whatever tactics the Supreme Leader and the IRGC deem fit at any given stage.
Meanwhile, the process in France, Britain, and the United States is entirely different. Theirs are serious elections that will impact not only these countries, but also Europe and the world, including our region, deciding crucial matters for our region, both in the present and the future.
Those elections will have an impact on Europe, Britain, or France’s politics, military, economy, and social cohesion. Europe and the United States are seeing shifts that push against the current. They are now more inclined to embrace nationalism and oppose globalization and the changes it creates.
For example, in the United States, we have the specter of a Democratic Party split following President Biden's insistence on running for re-election. This comes after his miserable debate against rival candidate Donald Trump that left Democrats scared they could lose the elections.
These risks are exacerbated by a Republican-Democrat struggle that has gone further than all those that have preceded it. President Barack Obama and then former President Trump are primarily responsible for this clear and dangerous internal fragmentation in the US, despite the strength of its institutions.
However, this division in the US has left its mark on everything, including academic, political, and media institutions. The country is polarized and its society is split, which requires a long discussion to explain.
We see the same state of affairs in Europe; chaos has prevailed in Britain since it left the European Union, taking economic, security, and health setbacks, giving us the impression that Britain needs a miracle for a better future.
Similarly, in France and the rest of Europe, populism is on the rise, the economy is in crisis, and there is a refugee crisis. Europe also fears terrorism, along with the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, which has shown that the old continent needs change. Europe is going through a laborious process of rejecting the status quo, but it is unable to live with it nor break free from it.
Therefore, it is misguided and simplistic to even refer to Iranian elections at this stage. They are an entirely different matter and are not genuine elections in the first place.

Pezeshkian and the Iranian Guide’s Calculations
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2024
The past few days have been burdened with messages from Washington to Tehran, via London and Paris. In a world with wide-open doors, elections are no longer a local matter. The importance increases when the results affect the future of economies, policies, and arsenals.
When the news emerged about Masoud Pezeshkian winning the Iranian presidency, I was struck by the man’s features and biography. He did not come from the religious institution, like a number of his predecessors, including Khamenei, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Rouhani, and Raisi. He has no fingerprints in the military and security establishment, as he put on the IRGC uniform only once when his fellow MPs wore it in protest at the Guard’s designation as a terrorist organization.
Pezeshkian was born in the city of Mahabad, which one day saw the birth of a Kurdish state that barely survived a year. His father is Azeri and his mother is Kurdish, which gives him the ability to understand the conditions and demands of minorities. He took the path of medicine and graduated as a cardiac surgeon. He entered the government as Minister of Health during the term of Mohammad Khatami and represented Tabriz in five parliamentary terms.
The prevailing impression was that the Iranian spiritual guide would nominate the extreme conservative figure, Saeed Jalili, for the presidency, and that Iran will push extremism to the forefront at a time when the American presidency seems within the reach of Donald Trump, who had ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani. This didn’t happen. Reading Iranian politics is not easy and sometimes requires patience similar to that of Iranian carpet makers.
Why did the spiritual leader allow Pezeshkian to run in the presidential elections and win? In 2021, the Guardian Council - which considers the eligibility of candidates - prevented the man from participating in the race. In February, the Council also rejected Pezeshkian’s eligibility due to his “lack of commitment to the principles of the revolution,” in reference to his position on the protests. But the man was able to run in the elections with Khamanei’s intervention. In fact, Pezeshkian criticized the harshness in dealing with the protests, especially regarding the killing of Mahsa Amini after her arrest, but considered the demonstrations harmful to the country.
In recent years, Pezeshkian has presented himself as a “conservative with reformist tendencies.” He does not have the talent for rhetoric and manipulating the emotions of the masses and the marginalized, whom his predecessor, Ahmadinejad, used to address. A moderate man. A doctor who believes in science and controlling the limits of vocabulary. He is a pragmatist and a son of the regime. He knows the balance of power and the actual center of decision-making, and he promotes under this ceiling the benefits of opening the window.
Pezeshkian did not hide the need to engage in negotiations with the West to lift sanctions, which he acknowledges are painful and have made the lives of many Iranians “miserable.” Khamenei certainly knew that Pezeshkian’s appearance in the presidential race would push Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Hassan Khomeini (grandson of the founding guide), and Ali Akbar Nouri to support him.
There are multiple readings about Pezeshkian’s victory, despite the fact that the major and final decision on foreign and domestic affairs resides in Khamenei’s office. There are those who believe that the supreme leader may have thought that the arrival of a hardliner like Jalili would exacerbate the already tense foreign relations - especially with the West’s conviction that Iran was very close to producing a nuclear weapon – and that Tehran needs a degree of calm both externally and internally to read the stormy international scene, especially if Trump wins the title of Mr. President. They also believe that Iran needs some time to consolidate and digest the successes achieved by Soleimani’s influence on some maps of the region.
The supreme leader may agree with some people’s suggestion that the Iranian regime has succeeded abroad more than it did at home, if the rates of poverty, unemployment, and development are taken into consideration. In addition, Iran is involved in the Gaza war and supporting conflicts, and managing this complex scene requires cooling feelings at home. On the other hand, there are those who think that Khamenei preferred the arrival of a president who cannot have an influence on the future selection of a new spiritual guide, even if he revives the role or image of the reformists.
What are the limits of Iranian ambitions? What are Iran’s borders in the region? Is it satisfied with what it has achieved so far in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and in the “Palestinian paper,” or is it seeking more? Does it want to stop the gunfire in the region and secure this and that sea? Is it looking for an American acceptance of its new size and new role? Is it aspiring to reserve its position in a Russian-Chinese axis, or desiring a distinctive status that does not condition its policy on the decisions of Moscow or Beijing?
Last week was full of messages, but some of them were easier to read than the Iranian news. Britain overturned 14 years of Conservative rule. Rishi Sunak is out, replaced by the Labor Party’s Keir Starmer. British institutions have proven that they operate without cracks or collapse.
On the other hand, the French elections revealed the depth of divisions in the country, heralding years of turmoil. A young man named Emmanuel Macron gambled with a large fund placed by Charles de Gaulle in the Fifth Republic. He gambled and lost, and France lost with him.
In parallel, the American scenes were exciting and painful. President Joe Biden is trying to lift the weight of his eighties. He is placing more demands on his memory that it can manage and resisting advice to leave the race after his “injury.” Facing the wounded president is a rude boxer who is skilled at hitting below the belt, and who mocks the burden of the eighties despite standing at its threshold.

Opinion: Europe and NATO can't help the U.S. counter China. Here's why
Mark Hannah/ Los Angeles Times./July 8, 2024 at 6:00
At a recent news conference, U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken stood shoulder to shoulder with NATO’s secretary general to deliver a sweeping vision. “The alliance recognizes that security challenges in one part of the world impact another — and vice versa,” Blinken said. He paraphrased Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan: “What’s happening in Ukraine today may well be happening in East Asia tomorrow.” The subtext was unmistakable: The United States expects Europe to join its campaign to counter China’s rise, just as allies have rallied against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yet as stirring as expressions of transatlantic solidarity sound, they obscure a more complicated picture. Europe currently lacks both the military means and the political appetite to meaningfully help the U.S. balance China in Asia.
Major European militaries have begun conducting naval patrols in the Indo-Pacific region, but decades of underinvestment have left European armed forces too small and ill-equipped to sustain far-flung expeditionary missions. Germany, the continent’s economic powerhouse, has allowed half its tanks to fall into disrepair. Britain, once a global power, could exhaust its ammunition within two months of high-intensity combat. France’s army has shrunk from 15 divisions during the Cold War to just two today.
Sending a frigate or two on patrol is one thing; maintaining a sizable presence to deter Chinese aggression is quite another. The strategic lift, logistics and bases needed to sustain forces in the Pacific would cost staggering sums. Much of NATO Europe would be hard-pressed to defend itself against a determined Russian assault, let alone project power in Asia.
Political will is in even shorter supply. In surveys the Institute for Global Affairs recently conducted in the U.S., U.K., Germany and France — four of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's wealthiest countries — Europeans proved far less inclined than Americans to view China as a threat, to hold strongly negative opinions of it or to believe the West should gear up for a new Cold War. These sentiments limit how far leaders can tilt toward Washington on China, despite their soaring summit rhetoric. When they’re done championing democracy at international summits, these political leaders return to their democracies, where their policies will be informed — and constrained — by their voters’ preferences.
If Washington pressures European capitals to join its campaign to limit China’s power and influence, it could yet again estrange the U.S. from its most important allies. Confronting China as a merry band of democratic countries may feel emotionally satisfying, but over the long term, it is unwise. Europeans are already disillusioned by their involvement in the interminable post-Sept. 11 wars and wary of America’s tendency toward military interventions. President Biden should be careful to not drag them into a more expansive global contest to which they neither want to nor can contribute.
Disputes about trade and technology accompany these military and political differences. America’s Inflation Reduction Act and the European Union's proposed carbon border tax, for instance, create tensions. Economic disagreements pale before the overriding imperative of deterring Chinese or Russian aggression against Taiwan or NATO territory, but considering all these factors, the U.S. and Europe should split their attention. As it concentrates forces in the Pacific, the U.S. should encourage Europe to bolster its defenses closer to home. European allies should double down on deterring Moscow rather than dilute their efforts in a far-off region where they can make little difference.
Over time, a more robust European defense posture might enable more contributions in the Pacific. But developing the necessary expeditionary capabilities would require drastic investment in areas such as airlift and sealift that most European militaries have long neglected. If Europe instead concentrates on securing its own neighborhood, it would relieve the U.S. of its costly burden there and free it up to focus more on the Indo-Pacific. This approach would also be politically popular, with our surveys finding large pluralities of Europeans who want to increase their country's defense spending; about 9 out of 10 Europeans want Europe to be primarily — or wholly — responsible for its own defense.
For all the heady invocations of free-world solidarity, the reality is that Europe cannot be America's wingman in Asia — at least not anytime soon. The world's leading democracies may share many of the same values, but their interests and abilities diverge with geography. Effectively managing authoritarian challengers such as China will require a division of labor among allies, not the pretense of lockstep coordination. As NATO member countries gather in Washington this week, let’s hope for less chirpy idealism for a world that might be and more alert realism for the world that is.
Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs, is lead author of its “New Atlanticism” report and host of its “None of the Above” podcast. @ProfessorHannah

 Vienna: A Case Study of the ‘Great Replacement’
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream./July 8, 2024
Whoever doubts the merits of the “great replacement theory” — which holds that global “elites” are replacing white, Christian populations with nonwhite, non-Christian (especially Muslim) populations — should take a good look at Austria.
Its capital, Vienna — once a celebrated center of art, culture, and music, and the capital of the Christian Holy Roman Empire — is now infested with Islam.
According to a June 11 report, 35% of Viennese primary school students are Muslim, whereas only 21% are Catholic — even though Catholicism is Austria’s historic religion and once accounted for nearly 100% of the populace’s religion. The report adds that over the last seven years, Vienna’s Muslim population has grown by 20%. This would seem to suggest that, in 2017, the Muslim population of Vienna was relatively benign, leading authorities to conclude that bringing in more of them should have no negative consequences. If fact, nothing could be further from the truth. According to a 2017 report titled “Austrians living in fear as violent migrant gangs carry out DAILY attacks in Vienna”:
Muggings and beatings are becoming commonplace in the historic capital city, with passersby being attacked on almost a daily basis….The Praterstern area, just outside central Vienna, is now controlled by North Africans and is considered the worst area in the city for crime. Despite police increasing their presence in the area it has become riddled with crime. On the other side of the city, the area surrounding the West Railway Station has been taken over by Afghans who have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons…. Crimes carried out by migrants in Austria have risen rapidly over the past year as more arrive in the country. Last year [2016], there were a total 22,000 criminal complaints against migrants, up from 14,000 in 2015, the Austrian Interior Ministry revealed. Sex attacks carried out by asylum seekers has become a serious problem in Austria, with a 133 per cent increase in migrant sex attacks in the past year since the migrant crisis erupted. Swimming pools and other public venues have become some of the most prevalent areas for attacks to take place.
Not Isolated Problems
Indeed, as in other European nations, sex crimes — including against young boys — have skyrocketed in Austria. According to one report, “Hardly a day goes by without reports of sex attacks” at the hands of migrants. In one incident, a 17-year-old Muslim asylum seeker raped a 72-year-old grandmother after she helped him out of a canal.
Some police have apparently been less than responsive, even going so far as to blame the victims. When a 20-year-old Austrian woman waiting at a bus stop in Vienna was attacked, beaten, and robbed by four Muslim men — including one who “started [by] putting his hands through my hair and made it clear that in his cultural background there were hardly any blonde women”—police responded by telling the victim to dye her hair:
At first I was scared, but now I’m more angry than anything. After the attack they told me that women shouldn’t be alone on the streets after 8 p.m. And they also gave me other advice, telling me I should dye my hair dark and also not dress in such a provocative way. Indirectly that means I was partly to blame for what happened to me. That is a massive insult. Still, surely none of the above is indicative of Muslim teaching but rather generic criminality, which plagues all places and cultures? In fact, Islamic teachings are the root source.
Teaching Hatred and Deception
For example, in May 2023, mosques in Austria were exposed for actively teaching Muslim youth not to befriend native Austrians or any other non-Muslims. While some politicians — such as Manfred Haimbuchner of Austria’s conservative Freedom Party — expressed shock and outrage at this teaching, it is, in fact, a mainstream Muslim doctrine. According to Koran 3:28:
Let believers not take for friends and allies infidels rather than believers: and whoever does this shall have no relationship left with Allah — unless you but guard yourselves against them, taking precautions [taqiyya].
The latter portion of that verse means that, whenever Muslims are in a position of weakness, they may pretend to be friends with non-Muslims, as long as they continue harboring hate for them in their hearts (for other Islamic-sanctioned forms of deception, see tawriya and taysir).
Koran 5:51 is even more explicit, and names names:
O believers, do not take Jews and Christians for friends and allies. They are allies of one another; and anyone who makes them his friends is surely one of them.
But the matter is far worse than not befriending non-Muslims. Koran 60:4 calls for Muslims to perpetually hate all non-Muslims until they “believe in Allah alone.” After quoting Koran 60:4, the Islamic State (ISIS) confessed to the West, “We hate you, first and foremost, because you are disbelievers.” As for any and all political “grievances,” these are “secondary” reasons for the jihad, the group said:
The fact is, even if you were to stop bombing us, imprisoning us, torturing us, vilifying us, and usurping our lands, we would continue to hate you because our primary reason for hating you will not cease to exist until you embrace Islam. Even if you were to pay jizyah and live under the authority of Islam in humiliation, we would continue to hate you.
Where’s the Love?
Many other hostile and divisive verses permeate the Koran (see also 4:89, 4:144, 5:51, 5:54, 6:40, 9:23, and 60:1). Koran 58:22 goes as far as to praise Muslims who kill their own non-Muslim family members.
The matter is such that, because enmity for non-Muslims is so ironclad in the Koran, mainstream Islamic teaching holds that Muslim men must even hate — and show that they hate — their non-Muslim wives, while enjoying them sexually or for their wealth, etc. Little wonder Muslims express their hate for the once-dominant religion of Austria — Christianity, vestiges of which are still seen everywhere —on a regular basis.
For example, in July 2023, two teenage Muslims living in Austria confessed that they wanted to “kill Christians” and “restore the caliphate” after being arrested. When confronted in court, the unrepentant boys — who both had a history of violence and criminality — admitted, “We wanted to shoot all the Christians in the class!” Asked how they would have responded if police had intervened, they said, “We would have surrendered”—adding that “Allah would have forgiven” them in prison, since “killing Christians takes us to paradise.”A few more recent examples of how Muslim hate for Christianity regularly expresses itself in Austria follow:
In January 2021, approximately 40 Muslim migrants rioted and burned down a Christmas tree in Favoriten. The fire brigade heard one of the migrants yelling: “A Christmas tree has no place in a Muslim district,” even as the raging mob pelted the emergency service officials with projectiles to screams of “Allahu Akbar.”
In April 2022, a Muslim man chased, beat, and kicked a Christian man for distributing Bibles in the streets of Vienna-Meidling.
In July 2023, statues of Jesus and Mary in a beloved Viennese prayer garden were found beheaded.
Last November, a Muslim refugee wreaked havoc inside Kepler Church in Vienna, including violently tearing a Madonna statue from its anchorage. Two days later, the same man disrupted mass inside Saint Stephen’s Cathedral, Vienna’s most celebrated place of worship. When confronted by two security guards, the Muslim “went crazy and threatened to slit the two employees’ throats with a screwdriver…”
Last month, a Catholic church was hit with graffiti proclaiming, “Islam will win, with you or without,” and “Deen over Dunya” (“Religion over worldly life”). Four years ago, 50 young people (presumed to be Turks) stormed into the same church shouting, “Allahu Akbar!”
Governmental Capitulation
Nor is the matter limited to lawless violence. Austria is willingly capitulating. Rather than expecting Muslims to assimilate, it is the Christians of Austria who are expected to accommodate Muslim sensibilities. According to one report titled, “Catholic children forced to learn Islamic songs at [an] Austrian elementary school”: “At an elementary school in Linz, Catholic children have to memorise and recite Islamic songs as part of the Islamic Ramadan festival. They were forced to take part and were punished if they refused.” After picking up her young son from school, one Catholic mother was shocked to hear him loudly chanting “Allah, Allah!” He told her that for two months the entire class had been compelled to sing songs about Islam, or else risk punishment. “It felt like a slap in my face!” said the mother in an interview.
That all of this is happening in Austria in general, Vienna in particular, is especially ironic, if not symbolic.
In 1683, hundreds of thousands of Muslim jihadists, led by the Ottoman Turks, encircled and laid siege to Vienna. There was a reason they chose that city. For centuries, it had been the capital of the Holy Roman Empire — which itself had long been the “Defender of the Faith” and chief nemesis of Islamic jihad. At the final moment, the Europeans manfully defeated the Muslims and lifted the siege, thereby saving not just Vienna but all of Europe.
Today, Muslims are making the sorts of inroads in Austria, and all throughout Europe, that their ancestors could never have dreamt were possible. But this is less a reflection of Islam —which is today significantly weaker than in its Ottoman heyday — and more a reflection of a swiftly dying, if not suicidal, secular Europe.

Transitions
Charles Chartouni/This is Beirut/July 08/2024
The mere observation of the international scene conveys a perplexing picture regarding both international political stability and domestic political evolutions. The parliamentary elections in France, the late European elections, and the incoming presidential elections in the US are challenging on multiple accounts: the sociology of the political landscapes, the polarization of the political scenes, and their impact on international political alignments. The radioscopy sends contrasting signals about the domestic political alignments, the rise of extremism, and the demise of political moderation and bipartisanship in both Europe and the US, at a time when conflicts are still raging in the Ukraine, the Near East, and the Horn of Africa.
One wonders whether the victory of extremes is likely to endanger the future of the transatlantic alliance, favor the outburst of Russian imperialism, cater to Chinese power politics, and extend a lifeline to rogue states all along various geopolitical spectrums (Iran, Syria, Libya, Venezuela, North Korea, Nicaragua, Cuba…). The firm transatlantic commitments of Jordan Bardella and Giorgia Meloni are quite reassuring since they initiate a new political dynamic whereby the National Rights are repositioning themselves while striving to reinvent the right’s new political center, whereas Leftist parties are still hostages to their political extremes. The outcomes of the French parliamentary elections are quite decisive and shall set the tone at the European level.
The political evolutions in the Middle East are highly problematic since the destructive cycle initiated by the Iranian power politics is a corollary to the radicalization of the Islamic regime. The containment of Iranian expansionism and the support of political dissidence are interrelated if democratization and conflict resolution are to take hold in Iran and the region. The interlocking dynamics between the neo-totalitarian drive and its cataclysmic power politics are major sabotaging factors that should be reckoned with. The Iranian surrogate wars conducted by Hamas and Hezbollah should be countered and won ultimately whatever might be the strategic ponderations. The destructive lifecycles of Iranian imperialism should come to an end if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to oversee a conclusive peace process. Israelis and Palestinians have to rehabilitate the rich legacy of international agreements and start moving unambiguously in this direction. Obviously, this process is incremental and tentative and behooves a steady shepherding, since ideological extremism is a permanent obstacle that derailed previous undertakings.
Lebanon is the epitome of the interlocking destructive cycles ushered by Iranian imperialism. The domination politics of Lebanese Shiites and Hezbollah have undermined Lebanese statehood, questioned its normative and political rationales, and transformed Lebanon into an operational platform to destabilize the whole region. Lebanon has no chance of extracting itself from the clasp of Iranian imperialism and its Lebanese replicas unless the inner dynamics disintegrate. The recovery of the Lebanese democratic legacy cannot accommodate the questioning of national legitimacy, the stipulations of restricted sovereignty, debased constitutional governance, organized criminality, subversion politics, and international terrorism which perfectly equate with what Shiite domination politics stand for in Lebanon and the region.
The awaited transitions are of critical importance if we are to avoid the pitfalls of unhinged power politics and the rewilding of politics. The outcomes of electoral contests, the steady containment of Russian and Iranian imperialism, the overhaul of the EU and the transatlantic alliance, the stabilization of the Middle East and the resolution of its enduring conflicts, and the reweaving of regional alliances are preliminary stages, if Western democracies are to overcome the strategic challenges, the hazards of protracted conflicts, the endemic geopolitical instability and their incidence on their systemic equilibriums.

Israel-Hamas Agreement: What Is in Store?
Natasha Metni Torbey/This is Beirut/July 08/2024
Hamas has retracted. After making the question of a permanent ceasefire a condition for concluding any agreement with Israel, the Islamist group said on Sunday it was ready to negotiate the release of all Israeli hostages — about 120 — including soldiers, without such a provision. Although Tel Aviv’s “official” reply is yet to be declared, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to respond on Sunday evening.
“No agreement should prevent Israel from resuming fighting until all the goals of the war are achieved,” read a statement published on Sunday evening by Netanyahu’s press office. Since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7, Israel’s goals have been to eliminate Hamas from the strip and obtain the release of Israeli hostages. To this “requirement,” two others have been added, as reported in the statement. “The agreement must prohibit the transfer of weapons to Hamas via the Gaza-Egypt border. It should also not allow the return of fighters to the northern strip.” Is Netanyahu seeking to further complicate the situation in response to Hamas’ “unprecedented” retraction?
In addition to the visit of Israeli emissaries to Qatar, which is expected to take place in the coming days to “continue negotiations,” the Israeli Prime Minister is also set to address the US Congress on July 24. “Betting more than ever on the return of former US President Donald Trump to the White House, Benjamin Netanyahu does not intend to make any concessions to the outgoing administration, at least not before the upcoming US elections in November,” explains Fadi Assaf, an expert in international relations and co-founder of Middle East Strategic. “He believes that the time for grand bargains has not yet come and that he must seize the opportunity to push further on the hostage issue.”
With the implicit support of Arab countries and a large portion of Israelis (despite a significant popular movement in Tel Aviv demanding the hostages’ release as a priority), Netanyahu hopes that his upcoming intervention in Washington “will bolster his strategic choices, particularly his war objectives, which he insists on achieving at all costs, regardless of a potential ‘deal’ with tactical implications,” Assaf explains.
A Three-Step Plan
Still under discussion, the plan in question would unfold in three main stages, as presented by Hamas: the entry into Gaza of 400 humanitarian aid trucks per day, the withdrawal of the Israeli Army from the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing point, and finally, its complete withdrawal from Palestinian territory. “This is an ambitious and precarious plan given an interlocutor, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is still determined to continue his military campaign,” Assaf notes.
Nevertheless, regional and international pressures are intensifying to reach an agreement between the parties involved. Heavily mobilized, “Qatar and Egypt are pressuring Hamas, each using the levers at their disposal, for the group to show flexibility in the current context,” hence the decision to retract. However, “Hamas has other calculations, and accepting to negotiate on the hostages without a permanent ceasefire would not be ‘free,'” Assaf believes. According to him, these calculations “concern Hamas’ relations with its regional allies, particularly Hezbollah,” whose Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, discussed this issue with a Hamas delegation led by Khalil el-Hayyah on Friday.