English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 20/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Don’t lie to one another, seeing that you have put off the old man with his doings, and have put on the new man
Colossians03/01-17/:" 1 If then you were raised together with Christ, seek the things that are above, where Christ is, seated on the right hand of God.  Set your mind on the things that are above, not on the things that are on the earth.  For you died, and your life is hidden with Christ in God.  When Christ, our life, is revealed, then you will also be revealed with him in glory.  Put to death therefore your members which are on the earth: sexual immorality, uncleanness, depraved passion, evil desire, and covetousness, which is idolatry.  For these things’ sake the wrath of God comes on the children of disobedience. You also once walked in those, when you lived in them;  but now you also put them all away: anger, wrath, malice, slander, and shameful speaking out of your mouth.  Don’t lie to one another, seeing that you have put off the old man with his doings,  and have put on the new man, who is being renewed in knowledge after the image of his Creator,  where there can’t be Greek and Jew, circumcision and uncircumcision, barbarian, Scythian, bondservant, or free person; but Christ is all, and in all.  Put on therefore, as God’s chosen ones, holy and beloved, a heart of compassion, kindness, lowliness, humility, and perseverance;  bearing with one another, and forgiving each other, if any man has a complaint against any; even as Christ forgave you, so you also do.  Above all these things, walk in love, which is the bond of perfection.  And let the peace of God rule in your hearts, to which also you were called in one body, and be thankful.  Let the word of Christ dwell in you richly; in all wisdom teaching and admonishing one another with psalms, hymns, and spiritual songs, singing with grace in your heart to the Lord. Whatever you do, in word or in deed, do all in the name of the Lord Jesus, giving thanks to God the Father, through him.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 19-20/2024
Senator Ted Cruz's Video Link statement in support of “Silenced in Beirut" Amer Fakhoury book
Israeli strike targets Hezbollah site in Lebanon, Israeli military
Israeli Strike Targets Hezbollah Arms Depot in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, Security Sources Say
Multiple Israeli airstrikes reported in Lebanon
1 Israeli soldier killed in a Hezbollah drone attack
Israel strikes Hezbollah arms depots in Baalbek region
Israeli soldier killed in Hezbollah drone attack
Hezbollah repels Israeli 'infiltration', wages 'simultaneous air attack'
Report: Hezbollah, Iran giving chance to Gaza negotiations
Israel denies reports of Hezbollah drone near Netanyahu home
3 UNIFIL troops injured in Israeli airstrike on Dhayra
Geagea urges involving private sector in power generation
August 4 Victims’ Families Head to Vatican
Electricity: A Five-Step Plan to Lighting/Christiane Tager/This Is Beirut/August 19/2024
Editorial- Israel/Iran: Tehran’s Bluff/Michel Touma/This Is Beirut/August 19/2024
Reality and Illusion/David Hale/This Is Beirut/August 19/2024
Is this the end of Christians in a pluralistic Lebanon?/Naoum Abi-Rached/Face Book/August 19/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 19-20/2024
Blinken Says Israel Agrees to a US-Backed Proposal for a Ceasefire, Calls on Hamas to Do Same
Blinken, in Israel, says now is 'maybe the last' chance for a Gaza cease-fire deal
Israel-Hamas war latest: Blinken pushes for cease-fire in his 9th trip to Mideast since war began
Here’s the latest:
Hamas claims responsibility for Tel Aviv bombing
UN says record number of aid workers killed in 2023, mostly from UNRWA
Israeli authorities say a ‘powerful explosive’ killed 1 person in Tel Aviv
1 Palestinian killed and 2 wounded in a shooting on a street in Istanbul
Saudi ex-official alleges MbS forged king’s signature on Yemen war decree
Hamas, Islamic Jihad claim responsibility for bomb blast in Tel Aviv
What is the latest on the high-stakes negotiations over a cease-fire in Gaza?
Former Saudi official alleges Prince Mohammed forged king's signature on Yemen war decree, BBC says
US House Republicans say Biden committed impeachable offenses
Read: Republican report accusing Biden of impeachable conduct
Kremlin Nemesis Plans to Create Putin’s Nightmare in Captured Russian Territory
Wave of Executions Continues in Iran
Treasury Sanctions Iranian Proxies Smuggling Commodities

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 19-20/2024
The US needs more pop-up air bases worldwide to keep enemies guessing/Bradley Bowman and Lydia LaFavor/Defence News/August 19/2024
Why US foreign policy should focus on national interests, not just Israel - opinion/Sherwin Pomerantz/Jerusalem Post/August 19/2024
Iran's Gaza War: Ceasefire? What Ceasefire?/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/August 19, 2024
In a new book, former MP Bassem al-Sabeh recalls the thorny relationship between the slain ex-PM and ruling elite in Syria/London: Asharq Al Awsat/August 19/2024
Ukraine Defies the U.S. to Launch a Showy Offensive Into Russia/Vladislav Davidzon/The Tablet/August 19/2024
The Ominous Threat of a Terrorist Attack Waiting to Happen on US Soil/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 19/2024
The Failures of Piecemeal Diplomacy and the Day After/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/August 19/2024
Strong Men Who Have No Solution/Ghassan Charbel/ Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/August 19/2024
He Still Thought He Could Win: Inside Biden’s Decision to Drop Out/Michael D. Shear, Katie Rogers and Adam Entous/The New York Times/August 19/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 19-20/2024
Senator Ted Cruz's Video Link statement in support of “Silenced in Beirut" Amer Fakhoury book
Amer Foundation/X site/August 19/2024
https://x.com/i/status/1825560306774368314
Yesterday we hosted an exclusive book launch event with individuals that we have worked with and who have supported the organization from day 1. We are so honored that Senator Ted Cruz sent along this video in support of “Silenced in Beirut” and the Amer Foundation because he was unable to attend in person. He was a huge support in getting Amer Fakhoury back home.

Israeli strike targets Hezbollah site in Lebanon, Israeli military
Reuters/August 19, 2024
BEIRUT -An Israeli strike on Monday evening targeted a Hezbollah arms depot in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, the Israeli military said. The strike did not result in any fatalities, two security sources told Reuters. Lebanon's health ministry said of the eight injured six were Lebanese citizens and two Syrian children. The Israeli military said its air force struck a number of Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in the area of Beqaa in Lebanon. "Following the strikes, secondary explosions were identified, indicating the presence of large amounts of weapons in the facilities struck," the military said in a statement. It said earlier strikes in Deir Qanoun and Tayibe south of Lebanon targeted a senior militant in Hezbollah's Rocket and Missile Unit and a cell operating from a Hezbollah military structure. On Saturday, the Israel military said it targeted a weapons depot used by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah militants in an airstrike, killing at least 10 people including two children. In July, Israeli strikes also targeted another depot storing ammunition belonging to the Iranian-backed group in the town of Adloun in southern Lebanon, three security sources told Reuters. Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire since Hezbollah announced a "support front" with Palestinians shortly after its ally Hamas attacked southern Israeli border communities on Oct. 7, triggering Israel's military offensive in Gaza. Some 622 people in Lebanon have been killed since the start of the clashes last year, including 416 Hezbollah fighters and 132 civilians, according to a Reuters toll.

Israeli Strike Targets Hezbollah Arms Depot in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, Security Sources Say
Asharq Al Awsat/August 19, 2024
An Israeli strike on Monday evening targeted a Hezbollah arms depot in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, two security sources told Reuters. Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon have been trading fire with Israel in parallel with the Gaza war. Israeli strikes for the last 10 months have regularly targeted Hezbollah fighters and rocket launch sites, but strikes on arms depots have been more rare.

Multiple Israeli airstrikes reported in Lebanon
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
BEIRUT — The Israeli army said it hit “a number of Hezbollah weapons storage facilities” in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley Monday night. At least three Israeli airstrikes hit towns in the Baalbek district, Lebanese state media reported. Videos from the scene showed a large fire and multiple explosions following the initial strike. “Following the strikes, secondary explosions were identified, indicating the presence of large amounts of weapons in the facilities struck,” the Israeli army statement said. A spokesperson for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the strike. A similar scene took place last month after an Israeli airstrike on the southern coastal village of Adloun hit an arms depot, setting off a series of explosions that hit nearby villages with shrapnel.

1 Israeli soldier killed in a Hezbollah drone attack
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
BEIRUT — One Israeli soldier was killed Monday in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Ya’ra Barracks near the Lebanon-Israel border, the Israeli military said. Hezbollah said it had launched exploding drones at two Israeli bases, including in the northern town of Nahariya, as tensions increase along the Lebanon-Israel border and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken makes his ninth diplomatic mission to the Middle East to push for a cease-fire deal to end the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military said in a statement that it intercepted some projectiles coming from southern Lebanon, while others “fell in the area of Ya’ra,” without providing additional information. The Israeli military told The Associated Press that there were multiple launches into the area. The powerful Iran-backed Lebanese group said the two drone attacks targeted the Ya’ra Barracks near the U.N.-mandated Blue Line and an Israeli military logistics base deeper into the country in Nahariya. Hezbollah earlier also said they fired rockets and artillery at a group of Israeli soldiers trying to cross into Lebanese territory in the central sector. The Israeli military told the AP that it was unaware of Hezbollah’s drone attack on Nahariya, and the group’s allegations that a group of Israeli troops were trying to cross into Lebanese territory overnight. Israeli jets over Beirut broke the sound barrier, causing sonic booms in the Lebanese capital. The Israeli military said that it also targeted Hezbollah militants in the southeastern town of Houla and struck Hezbollah military infrastructure in Hanin and Ain al Shaab. The group announced the deaths of at least two combatants on Monday.

Israel strikes Hezbollah arms depots in Baalbek region
Agence France Presse/Associated Press
Israel struck Hezbollah weapons depots on Monday deep in Lebanon's east, a source close to the group told AFP, away from the southern border that has witnessed near-daily clashes between Hezbollah and Israel. The source close to Iran-backed Hezbollah said "Israel strikes in the (eastern) Bekaa region targeted Hezbollah weapons depots," and Lebanon's official National News Agency (NNA) said three locations in Lebanon's east witnessed "enemy Israeli raids this evening." Videos from the scene showed a large fire and multiple explosions following the initial strike. A similar scene took place last month after an Israeli airstrike on the southern coastal village of Adloun hit an arms depot, setting off a series of explosions that hit nearby villages with shrapnel.

Israeli soldier killed in Hezbollah drone attack
Associated Press/August 19/2024
One Israeli soldier was killed Monday in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Ya’ra Barracks near the Lebanon-Israel border, the Israeli military said. Hezbollah said it had launched exploding drones at two Israeli bases, including in the northern town of Nahariya, as tensions increase along the Lebanon-Israel border and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken makes his ninth diplomatic mission to the Middle East to push for a cease-fire deal to end the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military said in a statement that it intercepted some projectiles coming from southern Lebanon, while others “fell in the area of Ya’ra,” without providing additional information. The Israeli military told The Associated Press that there were multiple launches into the area. The powerful Iran-backed Lebanese group said the two drone attacks targeted the Ya’ra Barracks near the U.N.-mandated Blue Line and an Israeli military logistics base deeper into the country in Nahariya. Hezbollah earlier also said they fired rockets and artillery at a group of Israeli soldiers trying to cross into Lebanese territory in the central sector. The Israeli military told the AP that it was unaware of Hezbollah’s drone attack on Nahariya, and the group’s allegations that a group of Israeli troops were trying to cross into Lebanese territory overnight. Israeli jets over Beirut broke the sound barrier, causing sonic booms in the Lebanese capital. The Israeli military said that it also targeted Hezbollah militants in the southeastern town of Houla and struck Hezbollah military infrastructure in Hanin and Ain al Shaab.
The group announced the deaths of at least two combatants on Monday.

Hezbollah repels Israeli 'infiltration', wages 'simultaneous air attack'
Agence France Presse/August 19/2024 
Hezbollah said Monday two of its fighters were killed and claimed attacks on northern Israel, including with drones, the latest cross-border violence amid fears of full-blown war. The powerful Iran-backed group has exchanged regular cross-border fire with the Israeli army in support of ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war. But tensions have soared as Hezbollah and Iran vowed to respond after an Israeli strike last month on Beirut killed Fouad Shukur, one of the Lebanese group's top commanders, hours before an attack in Tehran, blamed on Israel, killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Hezbollah said two of its fighters were "martyred on the road to Jerusalem," the phrase it has used to refer to members killed by Israeli fire since October. The Israeli military said air forces struck "Hezbollah terrorists" in the Houla area and "Hezbollah military structures" elsewhere in south Lebanon. Lebanon's official National News Agency (NNA) reported Israeli shelling and raids on several southern areas, and said "enemy warplanes broke the sound barrier twice over Beirut and its suburbs... at low altitude."Hezbollah said it launched a "simultaneous air attack" with "explosive-laden drones" on two Israeli military positions -- the Yaara barracks near the border, and a base near the coastal town of Acre, around 15 kilometers (10 miles) from the frontier. The Israeli military said in a statement that "multiple suspicious aerial targets were identified crossing from Lebanon."
Air defenses "intercepted some of the targets, and others fell" in the Yaara area, the statement added.
'Impunity'
Hezbollah said that attack came "in response" to an Israeli "attack and assassination" in south Lebanon's Tyre area. On Saturday, the Israeli military had said its aircraft "eliminated" a Hezbollah operative in the Tyre area, describing him as a "commander" in the group's elite Radwan force. Early Monday, Hezbollah said its fighters targeted a group of Israeli soldiers "infiltrating" near the border and confronted them "with rocket weapons and artillery, forcing them to return." Hezbollah also claimed a rocket and artillery attack on another Israeli barracks in retaliation for "Israeli enemy attacks."
Imran Riza, the United Nations humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon, said in a statement that "nearly 150,000 people continue to live in areas impacted daily by shelling and airstrikes" in Lebanon."Millions more are reliving painful memories of the 2006 war, traumatized by worry over the risk of further escalation," he said, referring to the last major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. According to the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration, the violence since October has displaced more than 110,000 people in south Lebanon. Israeli authorities say some 100,000 people have been displaced in Israel's north. Riza added that "21 paramedics whose duties were to save others have been killed," saying "the seeming impunity with which such actions have been committed reveals a troubling disregard for international humanitarian law."The cross-border violence has killed some 584 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters but including at least 128 civilians, according to an AFP tally.On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures.

Report: Hezbollah, Iran giving chance to Gaza negotiations
Naharnet/August 19/2024 
Hezbollah does not intend to expand its conflict with Israel and will give a chance to the ongoing negotiations over a Gaza ceasefire, a media report said. “This requires it to be patient as to its response against Israel (over Fouad Shukur’s assassination), and the same stance also applies to Iran,” Lebanese political sources have told foreign ambassadors, according to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper. “Coordination is ongoing between Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and they are exchangin viewpoints with Hezbollah to put it in the picture of their meetings with the envoys who are visiting Lebanon,” the daily reported. Berri and Mikati “have expressed their relief over the stance of Hezbollah, which has not objected against the influx of foreign envoys, including U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein,” political sources told the newspaper. “Hezbollah believes that it should give a chance to the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and it is currently holding back its response against Israel, while reserving its right to retaliate at the appropriate time, taking into account the general situation in the country,” the sources added. “Mikati and caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib are following up on the contacts related to the raging situation in the south and their concern is to rein in Israel and prevent it from expanding the war towards the south,” the sources went on to say.

Israel denies reports of Hezbollah drone near Netanyahu home
Naharnet/August 19/2024 
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel Hayom on Sunday that reports of a Hezbollah drone collecting footage on Netanyahu's home in Caesarea on Friday were a "false alarm."Israeli media reported that the "false alarm" had likely been the result of a radar system mistakenly identifying a flock of birds or other objects as potential threats. No drones were identified by Israeli forces at the time, Israeli reports said.

3 UNIFIL troops injured in Israeli airstrike on Dhayra
Agence France Presse/August 19/2024
Three United Nations peacekeepers suffered light injuries Sunday, the U.N. said, after a blast near their vehicle close to Lebanon's southern border, where Hezbollah and Israel have traded near-daily fire. Hezbollah has exchanged cross-border fire with the Israeli army in support of ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war. "Earlier today, three peacekeepers on patrol were lightly injured when an explosion occurred near their clearly marked U.N. vehicle in the vicinity of Yarine, in south Lebanon," the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said in a statement.
"All peacekeepers in the patrol returned safely to their base. We are looking into the incident," it added. Earlier Sunday, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency had reported that "Israeli enemy warplanes" struck the village of Dhayra, about one kilometer (0.6 miles) from Yarine, "resulting in injuries."
A UNIFIL source told AFP the explosion that injured the peacekeepers was probably a nearby air strike, but "not a direct hit."Earlier in August, Under Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix told AFP that UNIFIL was today "more important than ever" amid the ongoing cross-border clashes, because it was "the only liaison channel between the Israeli side and the Lebanese side in all its components, such as Hezbollah."In April, a judicial official told AFP that an ongoing Lebanese Army investigation determined that a landmine wounded three U.N. military observers and a translator the previous month, while Israel implicated Hezbollah. UNIFIL's mandate, which expires at the end of the month, is set to be renewed by the U.N. Security Council for another year. Lebanon's health ministry on Sunday said a person was killed and another injured "in an Israeli airstrike" that targeted a motorcycle in the town of Shebaa in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Resistance Brigades, a group affiliated with Hezbollah, said one of its fighters was "martyred defending Lebanon and supporting the resistance in Gaza," without specifying where. Hezbollah later said it launched Katyusha rockets at a military post in northern Israel in response "to the attack and assassination carried out by the Israeli enemy in the town of Shebaa." The cross-border violence has killed 582 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters but including at least 128 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures.

Geagea urges involving private sector in power generation
Naharnet/August 19/2024
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Monday noted that the electricity crisis of the past two days proves that the management of the electricity sector has been a “total failure” for the past 15 years. “There is not a single indication that this management will change, and accordingly only one solution remains: involving the private sector immediately in the process of producing electricity and distributing it across Lebanon,” Geagea said. He accordingly called on the head of the public works parliamentary committee, MP Sajih Atiyeh, to speed up the discussion of one or two draft laws in his possession in order to send them to the Joint Committees as soon as possible. Geagea also called on Speaker Nabih Berri to call for an urgent parliamentary session in order to “pull the Lebanese citizen out of darkness.”The state-run Zahrani Oil Installations on Saturday pumped five million liters of fuel oil on loan to the Zahrani power plant through the supply line that connects them, a day after Lebanon’s state utility Electricité du Liban announced that its power plants had exhausted their supply of fuel oil and would stop producing electricity. In a statement, the Installations director general said the process started after “completing all the administrative, technical and legal files.” The director general, however, noted that power supply would only benefit the state’s vital facilities and that the decision was taken after marathon negotiations. Lebanon has struggled with severe electricity shortages for years, particularly since the country fell into a protracted financial crisis in 2019. Homes and businesses rely largely on generators and, increasingly, solar panels for power as the state typically supplies electricity only a few hours a day. The meager state electricity supply relies on fuel oil provided by Iraq, but issues have arisen between the two countries due to Lebanon not having paid for the supply.

August 4 Victims’ Families Head to Vatican
Fady Noun/This Is Beirut/August 19/2024
A delegation representing the families of the victims of the August 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion is en route to the Vatican, according to informed sources. They will be received on August 26 by Pope Francis and Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin.
The group consists of approximately twenty people, including spokespersons for the victims’ families, such as Dr. Nazih el-Adem, father of Krystel el-Adem, William Noun, brother of firefighter Joe Noun, and lawyer Cécile Roukoz, whose brother was killed in the explosion. They will be accompanied by several Lebanese ecclesiastical figures.The Apostolic Nuncio, Archbishop Paolo Borgia, will also attend the audience. The delegation will initially meet with the Pope, who may offer them words of solace before celebrating a Mass for them in the Paolina Chapel. Subsequently, they will have an audience with Cardinal Parolin. According to reliable sources, the visit and audience are purely pastoral, aimed at providing spiritual support from the Pope to those affected by the explosion. Nonetheless, the audience will inevitably bring increased visibility to the cause of the victims’ families. Since 2021, the Pope has consistently raised awareness about their plight during the Angelus prayer on August 4. This year, he once again acknowledged their suffering, stating, “Today, the Lebanese people continue to endure immense hardships! I particularly remember the families of the victims of the Beirut port explosion. I pray for swift justice and truth to prevail. May the new Blessed (Editor’s note: Patriarch Estephan Douaihy, beatified on August 2) uphold the faith and hope of the Church in Lebanon, and may he intercede for this beloved country.”

Electricity: A Five-Step Plan to Lighting
Christiane Tager/This Is Beirut/August 19/2024
After hours of complete darkness in Lebanon, signs of hope are emerging as a five-step plan is set into motion. Essential facilities are gradually being resupplied with electricity, but it will take several more days before citizens can once again enjoy their sacrosanct four hours of daily power.
On Saturday afternoon, following the complete shutdown of the Zahrani power plant—the last remaining operational facility—Lebanon was plunged into total darkness for several hours. This blackout caused a halt in electricity supply to vital infrastructure, including the airport, port, water pumps and sewage systems. In response to the crisis, caretaker Minister of Energy Walid Fayad launched a comprehensive five-step plan to be implemented over a month, aimed at increasing the public grid’s capacity to over 800 megawatts. The first step involved securing a loan to purchase fuel from Lebanon’s oil reserves and transport it to the Zahrani power plant. As a result, one of the units at the Zahrani power plant has been reactivated following the delivery of 5,000 kiloliters of diesel from local reserves. This has enabled the generation of 150 megawatts and a partial restoration of electricity to vital infrastructure. However, this measure will not immediately restore power to citizens, as it is focused on supplying essential State facilities, including the port, major water pumps and the airport. The second step, currently underway, involves adding 100 megawatts from the Litani Authority’s hydroelectric plants to the public grid, increasing the total capacity to 300 megawatts. However, this enhancement will be temporary, as the “borrowed” fuel reserves from the oil facilities are expected to be depleted by August 25. Fayad states that starting August 26, “the third phase is set to begin with the arrival of the ship Helen from Egypt, which will deliver 30,000 tons of diesel. This will allow the Zahrani and Deir Ammar power plants to reach a production capacity of nearly 600 megawatts, restoring electricity supply to citizens.”However, to ensure the plan’s continuity, the Ministry of Energy and Water must issue a tender for the procurement of fuel for Electricité du Liban (EDL) and secure the $25.557 million needed for this purchase, to be obtained from electricity bill collections. On August 16, Fayad requested the Central Bank to open a letter of credit in favor of Sahara Energy to cover the transportation costs of the diesel being shipped on the tanker Helen. From September 6 to 30, the fourth phase of the plan will be launched. During this period, “60,000 tons of fuel, in line with the agreement with Iraq, will be delivered to Lebanon.”The fifth phase will involve continuing the supply of Iraqi fuel and operating the inverter engines at the Zouk and Jiyeh power plants by Middle East Power (MEP). This phase is set to increase energy production capacity by 200 megawatts, elevating the total network capacity to over 800 megawatts.
Immediate Algerian Assistance
Additionally, Algeria has committed to providing fuel supplies to EDL. In a phone call with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Algerian Prime Minister Nadir Larbawi affirmed “his country’s readiness to deliver immediate oil assistance to Lebanon to help address its electricity sector challenges.”In this context, caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib met with Algerian Ambassador to Lebanon Rachid Belbaki on Monday. The ambassador reaffirmed Algeria’s unwavering support for Lebanon, highlighting that President Tebboune’s decision to supply fuel is a natural response to the country’s exceptional challenges. It is important to note that EDL announced on Saturday that its power plants would halt electricity production due to the complete depletion of diesel reserves. This occurred despite preventive measures implemented since July 27 and multiple warnings from the public supplier. The measures were intended to conserve fuel reserves and ensure the continued supply of electricity for as long as possible to citizens and vital infrastructure, including the airport, port, water pumps and sewage systems.

Editorial- Israel/Iran: Tehran’s Bluff
Michel Touma/This Is Beirut/August 19/2024
In his famous work The Art of War, widely regarded as the oldest document on military strategy, the Chinese general Sun Tzu (6th century B.C.) explains that one can gain an upper hand over an enemy and win a battle without engaging in direct combat. This strategy involves tactics such as displays of force, deception, bluffing, or psychological warfare, all aimed at “subduing” the opponent while avoiding a full-scale confrontation that could lead to heavy losses. In essence, Sun Tzu’s approach is about forcing the enemy to yield without resorting to open conflict.
In modern terms, the strategy advocated by the Chinese general could be summed up as “psychological warfare” or “deterrence.” This is precisely what the US administration is doing today. The impressive naval forces (including a nuclear submarine) and air assets (notably F-22 stealth fighters) recently deployed by the Pentagon in the region are described by Washington as “deterrent” rather than offensive. This clarification reinforces the notion that the US—at least for now—is not seeking to topple the Iranian regime but to curb its ambitions, urging it to show more “modesty” in its regional aspirations and to “change its behavior,” as top US officials have repeatedly stated.
In a way, Iranian leaders use a similar military tactic. The regime strives to bluff and project (with considerable media hype) a warlike, offensive, and threatening stance to create the perception of being a significant regional military power. However, it carefully avoids direct, large-scale conflict with the “enemy” and instead engages in a more strategic game by manipulating its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This approach is designed to maintain a climate of instability and controlled tension while brandishing the threat of force. The threatening and aggressive posture of the Tehran mullahs, especially the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran), instills a sense of existential anxiety among the populations of the affected countries. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the Middle East and the constant risk of large-scale military and security escalations. Nevertheless, in this context, it is important to acknowledge some fundamental truths. There is a significant technological gap between the Islamic Republic and the United States, Israel, and the West in general. This technological disparity is reflected in a deep imbalance of military power between the two sides. The US-Israeli axis, in particular, maintains complete air superiority, notably with the recent deployment of F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters in the region. Consequently, a large-scale conflict is not in Iran’s interest. Any military action against Israel could swiftly lead to the destruction of Iran’s strategic infrastructure, including its long-developed nuclear facilities.
The strength of the mullahs’ regime lies not in large-scale confrontation but in a strategy of attrition, similar to the fait accompli imposed by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, as well as in terrorist operations aimed at destabilization. This highlights the strategic importance of the regime’s footholds in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. These positions allow the regime to maneuver and seek a dominant position in the Middle East without directly confronting the powerful American and Israeli military forces.
Two pressing questions arise in this uncertain context. Can the radical faction in Iran, represented by the Revolutionary Guards, maintain its hard-line stance and continue to impose its irrational and extreme agenda to further its strategy of exporting the Islamic Revolution? Meanwhile, are the United States and Israel truly prepared to take decisive action and confront the theocratic regime in Tehran, which is a constant source of disruption and chronic instability? According to credible American sources, Tehran could develop an atomic bomb in the upcoming weeks.
Uncertainty persists regarding the first question, and many informed observers believe the answer to the second is no. This is a significant setback for the liberal movement in the region and, more critically, for large segments of civil society within Iran, especially among women.

Reality and Illusion
David Hale/This Is Beirut/August 19/2024
The people of the Middle East, particularly Lebanese, Israelis, Palestinians, and their near neighbors are understandably living on a knife’s edge of uncertainty about what’s next ever since the killing of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024. It was a humiliation for the Iranians to have an honored terrorist guest assassinated in a high-security guest house amidst the celebratory inauguration of their new president, whose predecessor had been humiliatingly killed in the crash of a state-owned and controlled helicopter. Iranian leaders could hardly fume and bluster about their intended retaliation without suffering further loss of face.Those of us without access to intelligence can only speculate, but what exactly is it that people think the Iranians are going to do? After their last big humiliation, the assassination of a senior IRGC commander and his immediate staff in Damascus in April, the Iranians launched a salvo of drones and missiles that Israel and neighboring states successfully parried. At the state-to-state level, Iran cannot sustain a fight with Israel. It is likely instead to pursue this phase of its campaign against Israel, which started on October 7, back again at the level of asymmetrical proxy war. That way, Iranian leaders have more advantages and fewer risks. Nonetheless, Hezbollah seems loath to escalate too aggressively; a full-blown war with Israel is hardly in the interest of its Iranian master. After all, Hezbollah’s arsenal was not built to defend Lebanon, but to deter Israel from attacking Iran.
There have been broad hints that Iran and its allies have options for terrorist attacks against soft Israeli or Jewish targets around the world. That is certainly a tried-and-true playbook for them, deniable and hard to prevent. Horrible, but unlikely to change the balance of power in the Middle East. Just think back to one example, Hezbollah’s 1992 and 1994 bombings of the Israeli embassy and a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. They were retaliation for Israel’s strike in 1992 on Hezbollah’s leader, Abbas al-Musawi.
But none of the current American proposals to reduce or stop the fighting is likely to change the basic, decades-old pattern of conflict. Conventional thinking in Washington builds from an assumption that a Gaza ceasefire is the key to bringing calm to the Israeli-Lebanese border, perhaps alongside a few tweaks to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. These consist of mini-moves like relocating some Hezbollah fighters to the north and some Lebanese Army soldiers to the south while deploying more UN “peacekeepers” with neither a peace to keep nor a mandate to impose one. And the idea of trying to resolve the border anomalies that are a legacy of French colonialists surfaces from time to time — anomalies Hezbollah is loath to lose as pretexts for “resistance”.
Those are all potentially useful ingredients for a larger formula that could build more durable security for Israelis and Lebanese alike in the right context, except they don’t address the core problem. Iran has its hand on the spigot of violence in south Lebanon and northern Israel and continues to fund, train, and arm Hezbollah. So long as Iran is unmotivated to alter its belligerent approach to Israel, mini-moves in Lebanon will change nothing there. Unless Israeli leaders and their public see an American initiative that compels a change in Iran’s calculus, they are unlikely to take Washington’s word that all’s clear on their northern front. So, instead of the end of the conflict in Gaza bringing stability to the Israeli-Lebanese front, it will actually be the moment of greatest uncertainty as Israelis weigh the pros and cons of trying to end the situation it faces in the north. Outsiders have not sufficiently internalized the extent to which the trauma of October 7 has produced among Israelis a profound distrust of past national security strategies. Israelis have not formulated a replacement strategy, but they are not going to return passively to the pre-October status quo — in either Gaza or along their northern border — just because the Americans, Europeans, Arabs, and others would find that more convenient than the alternatives.
Of course, the predicament for Israel is that the lessons of 2006 are so obvious. The Israelis can’t destroy Hezbollah. Targeting Lebanese civilians and infrastructure is not only cruel but ineffective since it will not change the behavior of Iran or Hezbollah. And the accumulation of ever-more sophisticated weaponry on both sides will make another war so costly that any rational leader should pause. What is essential is that America offers an alternative and compelling path to get out of this never-ending pattern of conflict. That means developing a strategy that changes the calculations of Iranian leaders. That is hard and elusive in the best of times. An American election year and the incumbency of a lame-duck president are not conducive to innovative foreign policies that require tolerating some risk as well as gaining support from both of our major political parties. So, the danger of a war is very real — but not today. The moment of truth will be if and when the campaign in Gaza reaches an end state. American strategists should focus on changing Iranian behavior beforehand if they want to shape Israeli decision-making regarding the next phase.

Is this the end of Christians in a pluralistic Lebanon?
Naoum Abi-Rached/Face Book/August 19/2024
The Maronites contributed greatly to the creation of the State of Greater Lebanon.
New leaders and clan leaders, through their senseless ego, their extreme jealousy, attack the foundations of Lebanon «democratic state»
Total bankruptcy of Maronite community politicians, who seek self-interest, ignoring the supporters who elected them
Today Lebanon and its people are besieged because of the nihilistic attitude of political figures, just good at a tribal struggle.
Is there not a Maronite, a true patriot, from the people, who will succeed in uniting the Maronites, reaching out to the Catholics, the Orthodox. It takes integrity and a strong will to convince them that their only interest in survival is solidarity.
There is a Maronite Christian responsibility for all the Lebanese
It is imperative to unite all Lebanese of any community around the founding values of Lebanon. And work together for the recovery of the unity of the state in the interest of the people and new generations, in an independent Lebanon, a free citizen who lives with dignity.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 19-20/2024
Blinken Says Israel Agrees to a US-Backed Proposal for a Ceasefire, Calls on Hamas to Do Same
Asharq Al Awsat/August 19, 2024
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that Israel has accepted a proposal to bridge differences holding up a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza, and he called on Hamas to do the same, without saying whether it had addressed concerns cited by the militant group. Blinken spoke after holding a two-and-a-half hour meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the day, and was expected to travel to Egypt on Tuesday. The United States, Egypt and Qatar have spent months trying to broker an agreement, with the talks repeatedly stalling. He did not say whether the so-called bridging proposal addressed Israel's demands for control over two strategic corridors inside Gaza, which Hamas has said is a nonstarter, or other issues that have long bedeviled the negotiations. "In a very constructive meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu today, he confirmed to me that Israel supports the bridging proposal," Blinken told reporters. "The next important step is for Hamas to say ‘yes.’"Blinken had earlier said the time is now to conclude a Gaza ceasefire agreement that would return hostages held by Hamas and bring relief to Palestinian suffering after more than 10 months of devastating fighting in Gaza. Blinken's ninth mission to the Middle East since the conflict began came days after mediators, including the United States, expressed renewed optimism that a deal was near. But Hamas has expressed deep dissatisfaction with the latest proposal, and Israel has said there were points on which it was unwilling to compromise.The trip, days before new talks expected this week in Egypt, came amid fears that the conflict could widen into a deeper regional war following the targeted killing of two top militants in Lebanon and Iran that were attributed to Israel.
"This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a ceasefire and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security," Blinken said as he opened talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv. "It’s also time to make sure that no one takes any steps that could derail this process," he said in a veiled reference to Iran. "And so, we’re working to make sure that there is no escalation, that there are no provocations, that there are no actions that in any way move us away from getting this deal over the line, or for that matter, escalating the conflict to other places and to greater intensity."Herzog thanked Blinken for the Biden administration's support for Israel and lamented a spate of recent attacks against Israelis in the past 24 hours. "This is the way we are living these days," Herzog said. "We are surrounded by terrorism from all four corners of the earth and we are fighting back as a resilient and strong nation."Mediators will meet again this week in Cairo to try to cement a ceasefire. Blinken will travel to Egypt on Tuesday for meetings in the Mediterranean city of el-Alamein after he wraps up his Israel stop.
He met one-on-one with Netanyahu on Monday and with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant later in the day. The war began on Oct. 7 when Hamas-led fighters broke into Israel, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250 others. Of those, about 110 are still believed to be in Gaza, though Israeli authorities say around a third are dead. More than 100 hostages were released in November during a weeklong ceasefire. Israel's counterattack in Gaza has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and devastated much of the territory. Late last week, the three countries mediating the proposed ceasefire — Egypt, Qatar and the US —reported progress on a deal under which Israel would halt most military operations in Gaza and release a number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of hostages. Shortly before Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday, Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting there are areas where Israel can be flexible and unspecified areas where it won’t be."We are conducting negotiations and not a scenario in which we just give and give," he said.
The evolving proposal calls for a three-phase process in which Hamas would release all hostages abducted during its Oct. 7 attack. In exchange, Israel would withdraw its forces from Gaza and release Palestinian prisoners. Hamas accuses Israel of adding new demands that it maintain a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent arms smuggling and along a line bisecting the territory so it can search Palestinians returning to their homes in the north. Israel said those weren't new demands, but clarifications of a previous proposal. Officials said the US has presented proposals to bridge all the gaps remaining between the Israeli and Hamas positions. Formal responses to the US outline are expected this week and could lead to a ceasefire declaration unless the talks stall, as has happened with multiple previous efforts.
Late Sunday, Hamas said in a statement that Netanyahu has continued to set obstacles to a deal by demanding new conditions, accusing him of wanting to prolong the war. It said the mediators’ latest offer was a capitulation to Israel. "The new proposal responds to Netanyahu’s conditions," Hamas said. Blinken said Monday both sides should take this opportunity to reach a deal. "It is time for everyone to get to ‘yes’ and to not look for any excuses to say ‘no,’" he said. An Israeli delegation held talks with Egyptian officials as part of the truce efforts, an Egyptian official said Monday. The hourslong meeting Sunday focused on the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border, but didn’t achieve a breakthrough, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing negotiations. The official said that Israel still insists on keeping control of the border and the east-west route that bisects Gaza. He said that the delegation didn’t offer anything new in their meeting.

Blinken, in Israel, says now is 'maybe the last' chance for a Gaza cease-fire deal
Matthew Lee/(AP)/August 19, 2024
The Associated Press
TEL AVIV, Israel — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday the time is now to conclude a Gaza cease-fire agreement that would return hostages held by Hamas and bring relief to Palestinian suffering after 10 months of devastating fighting in Gaza. Blinken's ninth urgent mission to the Middle East since the conflict began came days after mediators, including the United States, expressed renewed optimism a deal was near. But Hamas has expressed deep dissatisfaction with the latest proposal and Israel has said there were areas it was unwilling to compromise. The trip, days ahead of new talks expected this week in Egypt, comes amid fears the conflict could widen into a deeper regional war following the killings of top militant commanders in Lebanon that Iran blamed on Israel. “This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a cease-fire and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security,” Blinken said as he opened talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv. “It’s also time to make sure that no one takes any steps that could derail this process,” he said in a veiled reference to Iran. “And so we’re working to make sure that there is no escalation, that there are no provocations, that there are no actions that in any way move us away from getting this deal over the line, or for that matter, escalating the conflict to other places and to greater intensity.”Herzog thanked Blinken for the Biden administration's support for Israel and lamented a spate of recent attacks against Israelis in the past 24 hours. “This is the way we are living these days,” Herzog said. “We are surrounded by terrorism from all four corners of the earth and we are fighting back as a resilient and strong nation.”Mediators are to meet again this week in Cairo to try to cement a cease-fire. Blinken will travel to Egypt on Tuesday after he wraps up his Israel stop. He met one-on-one with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for 2 1/2 hours Monday and was to meet with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant later in the day. The war began Oct. 7 when Hamas-led militants broke into Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250. Of those, some 110 are still believed to be in Gaza, though Israeli authorities say around a third are dead. More than 100 hostages were released in November during a weeklong cease-fire. Israel's counterattack in Gaza has killed over 40,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and devastated much of the territory.
Late last week, the three countries mediating the proposed cease-fire — Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. —reported progress on a deal under which Israel would halt most military operations in Gaza and release a number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of hostages. Shortly before Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday, Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting there are areas where Israel can be flexible and unspecified areas where it won’t be. “We are conducting negotiations and not a scenario in which we just give and give,” he said. The evolving proposal calls for a three-phase process in which Hamas would release all hostages abducted during its Oct. 7 attack. In exchange, Israel would withdraw its forces from Gaza and release Palestinian prisoners. Hamas accuses Israel of adding new demands that it maintain a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent arms smuggling and along a line bisecting the territory so it can search Palestinians returning to their homes in the north. Israel said those were not new demands, but clarifications of a previous proposal. Officials said the U.S. has presented proposals to bridge all the gaps remaining between the Israeli and Hamas positions. Formal responses to the U.S. outline are expected this week and could lead to a cease-fire declaration unless the talks collapse, as has happened with multiple previous efforts. Late Sunday, Hamas said in a statement that Netanyahu has continued to set obstacles to a deal by demanding new conditions, accusing him of wanting to prolong the war. It said the mediators’ latest offer was a capitulation to Israel. “The new proposal responds to Netanyahu’s conditions,” Hamas said. Blinken said Monday both sides should take this opportunity to reach a deal. “It is time for everyone to get to yes and to not look for any excuses to say no,” he said. An Israeli delegation held talks with Egyptian officials as part of the truce efforts, an Egyptian official said Monday. The hourslong meeting Sunday focused on the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border but didn’t achieve a breakthrough, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing negotiations. The official said Israel still insists on keeping control of the border and the east-west route that bisects Gaza. He said the delegation didn’t offer anything new in their meeting.

Israel-Hamas war latest: Blinken pushes for cease-fire in his 9th trip to Mideast since war began
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that Israel has accepted a proposal to bridge differences holding up a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza. He called on Hamas to do the same. Blinken was on his ninth urgent mission to the Middle East since the war in Gaza began more than 10 months ago. He did not say whether the “bridging proposal” addressed concerns cited by Hamas. Even if the militant group accepts the proposal, negotiators will spend the coming days working on “clear understandings on implementing the agreement,” Blinken said.His visit came days after mediators, including the United States, expressed renewed optimism that a deal was close. His trip also came amid fears the conflict could widen into a deeper regional war following the killings of top militant commanders in Lebanon that Iran blamed on Israel.

Here’s the latest:
UN chief calls for ‘constructive dialogue’ as a former Israeli ambassador to the UN returns to the post
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
UNITED NATIONS – From the early days of the Israel-Hamas war, Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Gilad Erdan attacked U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, accusing him of being “an accomplice to terrorism” and calling for his resignation.
Now, Israel has a new ambassador, and the U.N. chief is calling for “a constructive dialogue.” However, Danny Danon, who served as Israel’s U.N. ambassador from 2015-2020 and presented his credentials to the secretary-general on Monday, made clear he would be following in Erdan’s footsteps when it comes to Israel’s views about the United Nations. Danon said he's returning to the U.N. at a time of “immense challenges” for Israel and its people, saying 115 Israelis are still being held hostage in Gaza and face “ongoing atrocities and suffering.” “I am committed to represent my country to show the real face of Israel, and to push back the lies and the hypocrisy that we unfortunately have to deal with here at this building,” he said. Neither the U.N. Security Council nor the General Assembly have condemned Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that killed about 1,200 people and triggered the war, though Guterres has repeatedly called for a cease-fire and the release of all hostages. He has also criticized the killing of over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, including many women and children, mainly in Israeli airstrikes, as well as Israel's obstruction to humanitarian aid deliveries. For his part, Guterres said that “for the U.N., it is extremely important to have an objective relationship with Israel.” “We have different points of view in many aspects in relation to the two-state solution, in relation to what has been happening recently,” Guterres said, “but that doesn’t mean that we should not have a constructive dialogue based on truth.”

Hamas claims responsibility for Tel Aviv bombing
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
JERUSALEM — Hamas claimed responsibility Monday for a bombing the day before in Tel Aviv that killed the apparent attacker and wounded a bystander.
The bomb appeared to go off before it was intended and the presumed attacker was shown in security footage walking down the street wearing a large backpack just before the explosion. Israeli media quoted police officials as saying the intended target was a nearby synagogue. Hamas’ militant wing said in a statement Monday that the group and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s militant wing were responsible for the blast and threatened to continue attacking “as long as the occupation’s massacres, displacement of civilians, and the continuation of the assassination policy continues.”

UN says record number of aid workers killed in 2023, mostly from UNRWA
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
BERLIN — A record number of aid workers were killed in conflicts around the world last year, and this year may be on course to be even deadlier, the United Nations said Monday. The U.N.’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said that 280 aid workers were killed in 33 countries in 2023 — more than double the previous year’s figure of 118. It said that more than half of last year’s deaths were registered in the first three months of the Israel-Hamas war that started in October, mostly as a result of airstrikes. The office said that this year “may be on track for an even deadlier outcome,” with 172 aid workers killed as of Aug. 7. More than 280, the majority of them with the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, have been killed in Gaza so far, according to OCHA.

Israeli authorities say a ‘powerful explosive’ killed 1 person in Tel Aviv
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
JERUSALEM — A blast that killed one person and wounded another in Tel Aviv on Sunday night was a terror attack caused by a large explosive device, Israeli authorities said Monday. A joint statement from the police and Israel’s Shin Bet security agency gave few details other than saying that the attack involved “a powerful explosive.” They didn't identify the attacker or give a motive. Police said Sunday that the explosion killed one person, presumed to be the bomber. “We know that the mutilated body is not that of an innocent bystander but the one who carried the bomb,” Tel Aviv District Police Commander, Deputy Commissioner Peretz Amar said. The statement on Monday only referenced the bystander who was moderately wounded. Israeli media provided security footage that showed the presumed attacker walking down the street wearing a large backpack just before the explosion.

1 Palestinian killed and 2 wounded in a shooting on a street in Istanbul
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
ISTANBUL — Police in Istanbul have launched a “large-scale investigation” after a Palestinian was killed and two others were wounded in a shooting as they sat in a car, officials and media said Monday. The killer dropped a handgun fitted with a silencer at the scene, the Istanbul Governor’s Office said in a brief statement. The Demiroren News Agency reported that the man sitting in the driver’s seat was killed and his friend seriously wounded in the shooting late Sunday. Another man, who the governor’s office described as the dead man’s bodyguard, was wounded in the foot.
The killing was carried out by a masked assailant or assailants, the agency said. The victims were sitting on Dilaver Street in the Kagithane district of north Istanbul when the attack happened. It described the seriously wounded victim as a businessman.

Saudi ex-official alleges MbS forged king’s signature on Yemen war decree
The Associated Press/August 19, 2024
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — A former Saudi official has alleged that Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman forged the signature of his father on the royal decree that launched the kingdom’s yearslong, stalemated war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia didn't immediately respond to a request for comment over the allegations made without supporting evidence by Saad al-Jabri in an interview published Monday by the BBC, though the kingdom has described him as “a discredited former government official.” Al-Jabri, a former Saudi intelligence official who lives in exile in Canada, has been a yearslong dispute with the kingdom as his two children have been imprisoned in case he describes as trying to lure him back to Saudi Arabia. The allegation comes as Prince Mohammed now serves as the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, often meeting leaders in place of his father, the 88-year-old King Salman. His assertive behavior, particularly at the start of his ascension to power around the beginning of the Yemen war in 2015, extended to a wider crackdown on any perceived dissent or power base that could challenge his rule.In al-Jabri’s remarks to the BBC, he said a “credible, reliable” official linked to the Saudi Interior Ministry confirmed to him that Prince Mohammed signed the royal decree declaring war in place of his father.

Hamas, Islamic Jihad claim responsibility for bomb blast in Tel Aviv
Reuters/Updated Mon, August 19, 2024
JERUSALEM -The armed wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility on Monday for a bomb blast near a synagogue in Tel Aviv that Israeli police and the Shin Bet intelligence agency described as a terrorist attack. A man who was carrying the bomb was killed and a passerby was injured in the incident late on Sunday, according to police at the scene. In their statement the Brigades added that their "martyrdom operations" inside Israel would return to the forefront as long as the "occupation's massacres and assassination policy continue" - an allusion to Israel's offensive in Gaza and the July 31 killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel has neither claimed nor denied responsibility for Haniyeh's death in the Iranian capital. The war in Gaza began on Oct. 7 last year when Hamas gunmen stormed across the border into Israeli communities, killing around 1,200 people and abducting about 250 hostages according to Israeli tallies. Israel's military campaign has since levelled wide swathes of the Gaza Strip and killed at least 40,000 people, according to the enclave's health authorities. Sunday's explosion in Tel Aviv came about an hour after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv to push for a ceasefire in Gaza to end the 10-month-old war between Israel and Hamas. There has been increased urgency to reach a ceasefire deal amid fears of an escalation across the wider region. Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the assassination of Haniyeh.

What is the latest on the high-stakes negotiations over a cease-fire in Gaza?
Joseph Krauss/The Associated Press/Mon, August 19, 2024
U.S. and Arab mediators say they are closing in on a deal to halt the war in Gaza and free hostages captured by Hamas in its Oct. 7 attack, but the talks have dragged on for months, with several moments of false hope.
The negotiations gained new urgency when Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah vowed to avenge the targeted killing of two top militants, attributed to Israel, raising fears of a far wider and more devastating war.
U.S. officials expressed cautious optimism after two days of talks in Qatar last week, in which the mediators put forth a bridging proposal. But Hamas said it had serious problems with it, saying it departs from previous iterations that it had largely accepted. Israel also expressed concerns, saying there were compromises it was unwilling to make. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is back in the region and set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. Israel sent a delegation to Cairo on Sunday, and the mediators are expected to hold another round of high-level talks with Israel in Egypt later this week.
Here's where things stand:
What's at stake in the cease-fire negotiations?
A cease-fire would halt the deadliest war ever fought between Israelis and Palestinians, a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests.
Israel's offensive has killed over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, who do not say how many were militants. The vast majority of the population has been displaced, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands of people are packed into squalid tent camps, the health sector has largely collapsed and entire neighborhoods have been obliterated. The Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7 killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw militants abduct around 250 hostages. Some 110 hostages are still in Gaza, with Israeli authorities saying around a third are dead. Over 100 hostages were released during a weeklong cease-fire in November. Lebanon's Hezbollah has launched drones and rockets into Israel on a near-daily basis since the start of the war, and Israel has responded with airstrikes and artillery. The violence has escalated, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on both sides of the border.Hezbollah has vowed an even more severe attack — without saying when or how — in response to the killing last month of Fouad Shukur, one of its top commanders, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.
Other Iran-backed groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen have attacked Israeli, U.S. and international targets in solidarity with the Palestinians. Iran and Israel traded fire directly in April, and many fear a repeat if Iran makes good on its threat to avenge the killing of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an explosion in Tehran that was blamed on Israel. Hezbollah has said it would halt its operations along the border if there is calm in Gaza. A cease-fire deal might also persuade both Hezbollah and Iran to refrain from retaliatory strikes on Israel — if only temporarily — to avoid being seen as spoilers.
What are the main sticking points?
The two sides have been working off an evolving proposal for a three-phase process in which Hamas would free all the hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting cease-fire.
President Joe Biden came out in favor of the proposal in a May 31 speech and the U.N. Security Council approved it shortly thereafter. But since then, Hamas has proposed “amendments” and Israel has asked for “clarifications,” with each side accusing the other of making new demands it cannot accept.
Hamas wants assurances that Israel will not resume the war after the first batch of hostages — around 30 of the most vulnerable — are released. Israel wants to ensure negotiations do not drag on indefinitely over the second phase, in which the remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, are to be freed.
Netanyahu has also demanded in recent weeks that Israel maintain a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent arms smuggling and along a line bisecting the territory so it can search Palestinians returning to their homes in the north and make sure militants don't slip in.
Israel denies the demands are new, but there was no reference to either in Biden's speech or the U.N. resolution, which spoke of a full withdrawal. Other lingering issues include which Palestinian prisoners will be released and whether they will be sent into exile.
Who decides whether there is a cease-fire?
Any deal would have to be accepted by Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, who helped mastermind the Oct. 7 attack and became Hamas' overall leader after Haniyeh was killed. Netanyahu faces intense pressure from families of the hostages and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home. But far-right leaders in his coalition have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much, forcing early elections that could drive him from power. Sinwar, meanwhile, is hiding in Gaza, likely deep inside Hamas' vast network of tunnels, and has stuck to a hard line throughout the talks. He also tops Israel's most-wanted list, raising questions about what happens if he is killed. In the past it has taken several days for Hamas' negotiators to send proposals to Sinwar and receive his feedback. That means that even when the work of hammering out the latest proposal is completed, it would likely take a week or more for Hamas to formally respond to it.Palestinians in Gaza say they are exhausted and desperate for a cease-fire. When Hamas accepted an earlier proposal in May, spontaneous celebrations erupted — but those hopes were soon dashed.
Aid groups have called for a cease-fire since the start of the war, saying it's the only way to ensure desperately needed food and humanitarian aid reaches Gaza. Experts have warned of famine and the outbreak of diseases like polio if the war drags on. Even if the fighting ends tomorrow, the U.N. has said it would take more than a decade and tens of billions of dollars to rebuild Gaza. In Israel, where many are still deeply traumatized by the Oct. 7 attack, there is widespread support for the war and little sympathy for the Palestinians.
But the plight of the hostages has galvanized mass protests calling for a deal to bring them home and for the end of Netanyahu's government, which many blame for the security and intelligence failures that allowed the attack to happen.

Former Saudi official alleges Prince Mohammed forged king's signature on Yemen war decree, BBC says
Jon Gambrell/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/August 19, 2024
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — A former Saudi official alleged in a report that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman forged the signature of his father on the royal decree that launched the kingdom's yearslong, stalemated war against Yemen's Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to a request for comment over the allegations made without supporting evidence by Saad al-Jabri in an interview published Monday by the BBC, though the kingdom has described him as “a discredited former government official." Al-Jabri, a former Saudi intelligence official who lives in exile in Canada, has been a yearslong dispute with the kingdom as his two children have been imprisoned in case he describes as trying to lure him back to Saudi Arabia. The allegation comes as Prince Mohammed now serves as the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, often meeting leaders in place of his father, the 88-year-old King Salman. His assertive behavior, particularly at the start of his ascension to power around the beginning of the Yemen war in 2015, extended to a wider crackdown on any perceived dissent or power base that could challenge his rule. In al-Jabri's remarks to the BBC, he said a “credible, reliable” official linked to the Saudi Interior Ministry confirmed to him that Prince Mohammed signed the royal decree declaring war in place of his father. “We were surprised that there was a royal decree to allow the ground interventions,” al-Jabri told the BBC. “He forged the signature of his dad for that royal decree. The king’s mental capacity was deteriorating.”A U.S.-based lawyer for al-Jabri did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Yemen war against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, launched with promises by the prince it would quickly be over, has ground on for nearly a decade. The war has killed more than 150,000 people and created one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters, killing tens of thousands more. Prince Mohammed was the defense minister at the time. The Houthis also since the start the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip have launched attacks on shipping that have disrupted traffic through the Red Sea — and led to the most intense combat faced by the U.S. Navy since World War II. Al-Jabri once worked for former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, a trusted confidant of the U.S. in the battle against al-Qaida militants in the kingdom after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. King Salman replaced the crown prince for his son in 2017 and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef is believed to have been held under house arrest after. Al-Jabri had sued Prince Mohammed bin Salman in U.S. federal court, alleging the crown prince sought to have him killed after he fled abroad. Speaking to the BBC, al-Jabri again alleged Prince Mohammed considered assassinating former King Abdullah with a poison ring from Russia — something he claimed in a 2021 interview with CBS News. He also described his fears that the crown prince still wanted him killed as his children remain imprisoned in the kingdom.“He planned for my assassination,” al-Jabri told the BBC. “He will not rest until he sees me dead. I have no doubt about that.”

US House Republicans say Biden committed impeachable offenses
Reuters/August /19, 2024
WASHINGTON- House of Representatives Republicans issued a report on Monday alleging Democratic President Joe Biden committed impeachable offenses, but it was unclear whether they would push for a vote following a probe the White House has long dismissed as politically motivated. A 291-page report by three House committees alleged that Biden profited from an influence-peddling scheme to enrich himself and members of his family through foreign business dealings beginning in 2014, when Biden was vice president. "The committees present this information to the House of Representatives for its evaluation and consideration of appropriate next steps," the report said. It was not clear if Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson would schedule a vote to impeach Biden in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 5 election, in which Republican Donald Trump is locked in a tight battle with Vice President Kamala Harris. Even if the Republican-controlled House were to pass such a measure, it would be unlikely to remove Biden from office, given that he would need to be convicted by a Senate controlled 51-49 by his own Democratic Party. Biden, who withdrew his own reelection bid last month, is due to leave office when his successor is sworn in on Jan. 20. Democrats have disparaged the effort as retribution for Trump, who was impeached twice by a Democratic-controlled House and acquitted each time by the Senate. The first impeachment alleged that Trump pressured Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to help smear Biden in return for U.S. aid. A House impeachment against Biden's top border official, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, was put to a swift end by the Senate in April. Johnson, in a statement, commended the committees' work and said House Republicans "encourage all Americans to read this report." The House investigators say that Biden used his influence to benefit the business dealings of his son, Hunter Biden, with partners from Ukraine, China, Russia and other countries. Hunter Biden has been convicted on charges that he lied about his illegal drug use to buy a gun and is awaiting trial on charges of tax evasion, including an allegation that he accepted payments from a Romanian businessman who sought to influence U.S. government agencies in connection with a criminal probe in Romania. The impeachment inquiry, which lawmakers formally authorized last December and has been carried out by the House Oversight, Judiciary and Ways & Means Committees, has been criticized by members of both parties for failing to produce hard evidence of wrongdoing by Biden.

Read: Republican report accusing Biden of impeachable conduct
The Hill/Mon, August 19, 2024
House Republican investigators assert in a new report that President Biden engaged in impeachable conduct centering largely around the business activities of family members, including his son Hunter Biden. The long-awaited report released Monday argues it is “inconceivable” that President Biden was ignorant of how his family members allegedly used their connection to the then-vice president to boost their business deals in Ukraine, China, and elsewhere.The allegations rely heavily on bits of testimony that are disputed or undercut elsewhere.
Read the report here.https://www.scribd.com/document/760329814/Read-Republican-report-accusing-Biden-of-impeachable-conduct#from_embed

Kremlin Nemesis Plans to Create Putin’s Nightmare in Captured Russian Territory
Anna Nemtsova/The Daily Beast/ August 19, 2024
A former Russian lawmaker self-exiled in Ukraine is seeking to establish a new political power base right under the nose of Vladimir Putin in Russian territory seized by Kyiv’s forces. Ilya Ponomarev, a 49-year-old ex-politician now on Russia’s list of terrorists and extremists, says the stunning cross-border incursion launched by Kyiv’s forces on Aug. 6 presents a new “political opportunity.”“I’ve been telling Ukrainian authorities for two years that Putin’s power is weak, that nobody is defending the border much,” Ponomarev tells the Daily Beast. “I have been preparing for this particular moment to begin building a new platform, assemble the new power on the Russian territory—I am ready to lead and risk my life, in any case Russian drones are already targeting me.”
Humiliation for Putin as Over 100 Troops Raise White Flag on Russian Soil
Ponomarev and his wife were injured earlier this month in a drone attack which damaged his home in Kyiv Oblast—he described the incident at the time as the fifth attempt on his life. He’s been a thorn in the side of the Kremlin for a decade, having been the only member of Russia’s State Duma to vote against Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. He was later accused of embezzlement in Russia—charges which he dismissed as politically motivated—and has lived in exile in Ukraine for years. Ponomarev now wants to fight back by leading the revolt in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian broke through Russia’s defenses before continuing the campaign into the neighboring Belgorod region.
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
“I am ready to lead the political authorities in Kursk, if Kyiv approves of it, of course,” Ponomarev told the Daily Beast, adding that he would like to recruit residents who haven’t fled the region. “Many Russian soldiers have been waiting for it,” he said. “Many more will join the legions now.”In 2022, Ponomarev initiated and founded the Congress of People’s Deputies which currently includes 109 Russian citizens, former lawmakers, and bureaucrats, claiming to be the “transitional parliament” in exile. In late June, Warsaw hosted Ponomarev’s shadow parliament’s session that attracted dozens of Russian exiled politicians, calling for armed resistance to Putin’s rule.
Ponomarev said the Congress would be happy to welcome more new members, but few Russian opposition parties and movements have backed his position since the incursion began.
Thomas Peter/Reuters
“Many of our Congress deputies cannot wait to go to Kursk,” Ponomarev says. “We are open for everyone, we have a horizontal structure, but most liberals are skeptical, they are all waiting to see how the situation in Kursk is going to develop.”
As of Friday, 10 days since the incursion began, the presence of the Ukrainian military in the region of Kursk had only increased. National flags, armored vehicles, personnel, sniper positions, and even a commandant’s office have been established there, while Ukrainian fighters have published videos of dozens of Russian soldiers captured in the Kursk region.
Several reports on Thursday claimed over 100 Russian troops were captured inside Russia in the single biggest mass surrender since the war began. “Some of the captured are 18-to-19-year-old conscripts, who Putin promised not to send to the front,” an activist of the Soldiers’ Mothers movement told the Daily Beast in an interview this week. “So, they moved these conscripts to the border area, where there is no connection with them—we receive many calls from devastated mothers.”
She added that although Kyiv’s strategy is still unclear to most Russians, many understand the Ukrainian military are not going to leave the occupied town of Sudzha and surrounding villages which have been abandoned by over 100,000 Russian residents. Ukraine’s top military commander Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky claimed to control over 80 settlements having pushed more than 21 miles inside Russia.
A destroyed bridge over the Seym river in the Glushkovo district.
Smoke billows from a bridge over the Seym river in the Glushkovo district, following a Ukrainian strike in the Kursk region, Russia on Aug. 16, 2024.
In Ponomarev’s view, the “absolute goal” of the incursion “would be to occupy the Kursk power plant and eventually swap it for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.” The Zaporizhzhia plant in southeastern Ukraine—the largest nuclear power station in Europe—has been occupied by Russian troops since the early days of the war in March 2022. Some in Russia have likened Ponomarev to Vladimir Lenin, who also plotted political revolution a century ago revolution while in exile. Others are less impressed, including Lev Shlosberg, the deputy chair of the opposition Yabloko party in Russia.
“They are not politicians, they are bandits, guerrillas, direct successors of terrorist-Bolsheviks,” Shlosenberg told the Daily Beast about exiled Russian politicians like Ponomarev. “Nobody has ever harmed Russia more than Bolsheviks. They are people of violence, revolution, war, and blood.”Another exiled lawmaker, Gennady Gudkov, sounded skeptical about Ponomarev’s plan to establish alternative power in the Kursk region. “Seriously,” Gudkov told the Daily Beast, “This is not a great idea.”

Wave of Executions Continues in Iran
FDD/August 19/2024
Latest Developments
Iran executed six more prisoners on August 14 as part of a new wave of death sentences that are “unprecedented,” according to the independent website Iran Wire. Iran’s judiciary had convicted four of the victims for alleged murder and two for alleged drug-related charges. Convictions in Iran often follow trials devoid of due process. In a related development, the Iranian authorities issued a summons for the re-imprisonment of prominent human rights attorney Mohammad Seifzadeh due to his public opposition to the death penalty, the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) reported on August 14. The 76-year-old lawyer — who has been jailed 13 times during his career, under both the Shah’s regime and the Islamic Republic — has a heart condition that has previously required multiple hospitalizations.
Expert Analysis
“The most important step the United States can take to improve the state of human rights in Iran is to deprive the regime of the financial resources it uses to fund its oppression machine. The Biden administration has been doing the exact opposite.” — Saeed Ghasseminejad, FDD Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor
“The Islamic Republic continues to demonstrate its inherent cruelty. It will stop at nothing to suppress dissent. The United States must recognize that the regime, even under its new president, remains committed to its revolutionary Islamist ideology. If Washington wants Iran to behave like a normal country, it should impose maximum pressure on Tehran with the ultimate goal of regime change.” — Tzvi Kahn, FDD Research Fellow and Senior Editor
“The Islamic Republic’s judicial system, flawed by design, serves as a tool to intimidate ordinary citizens to quash Iranian civil society. This recent unprecedented spike in executions, enabled by the rigged and unjust legal process, underscores the regime’s fear in response to rising public discontent that has gravely unsettled its security apparatus.” — Janatan Sayeh, FDD Research Analyst
Executions Surge
Executions have surged in recent weeks, including 36 executions in the space of 24 hours earlier this month. On August 9, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk issued a statement saying he is “extremely concerned” about the “alarmingly high number of executions in such a short period of time.” Türk also expressed “concerns about the lack of due process and fair trial standards in many of these cases.” According to the Oslo-based nonprofit Iran Human Rights (IHR), the Islamic Republic has executed 373 people — including 15 women — in 2024 to date.
A Champion for Human Rights
Tehran summoned Seifzadeh after he signed an open letter in December 2022 that called on United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to speak out against Iran’s use of the death penalty, citing the extra-judicial execution of a 23-year-old man, Mohsen Shekari, for protesting against the regime. The charges against Seifzadeh, a founding member of Iran’s Defenders of Human Rights Center, included “propaganda against the state” and “publishing falsehoods.”

Treasury Sanctions Iranian Proxies Smuggling Commodities
FDD/August 19/2024
The U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting entities affiliated with Iranian proxy terrorist groups in Yemen and Lebanon engaged in the smuggling of Iranian commodities. The sanctioned entities, according to an August 15 Treasury Department press release, include several companies, individuals, and vessels involved in transporting commodities, among them oil and liquified petroleum gas, to Yemen and the United Arab Emirates on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The sanctioned entities belong to the network of Sa’id al-Jamal — an Iran-based financier of the Houthi rebels in Yemen who was sanctioned by the United States in 2021 — which helps finance the Yemeni terrorist group’s attacks on international commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Al-Jamal’s activities have also generated revenue for the IRGC’s Quds Force, which trains and equips Iranian proxy groups throughout the region.
The department also sanctioned a Hong Kong-based shipping company, Kai Heng Long Global Energy Limited, and four tankers, the MV Fengshun, MV Victoria, MV Lady Liberty, and MV Parvati, that transported Iranian liquified petroleum gas. The Fengshun and Victoria are operated by the Hezbollah-controlled Talaqi Group — a group of front companies run by Hezbollah official Muhammad Qasim al-Bazzal — and were used to ship “tens of millions” of dollars’ worth of liquified petroleum gas from Iran to China. The Talaqi Group and al-Bazzal have both been sanctioned by the United States.
Expert Analysis
“This is an important sanctions enforcement action undercut by a policy of simultaneously relieving pressure on the Houthis by leaving the group off the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list and maintaining wide exceptions to its sanctions designation.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
“Since Treasury designated Sa’id al-Jamal in 2021, the government has continued to target his network of shipping companies, vessels, and intermediaries who, by way of supporting the Houthis, are benefiting the Iranian regime. But with every additional designation, one must ask whether we are simply playing a years-long game of cat and mouse or if the United States is truly coming close to cutting off the al-Jamal network for good. Americans deserve to know which of these is true.” — Max Meizlish, Senior Research Analyst for FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP)
Sanctions on Al-Jamal
The United States sanctioned al-Jamal and 11 members of his network on June 10, 2021, noting then that his network “generates tens of millions of dollars in revenue from the sale of commodities, like Iranian petroleum, a significant portion of which is then directed through a complex network of intermediaries and exchange houses in multiple countries to the Houthis in Yemen.” Since his designation, the Treasury has sanctioned entities in al-Jamal’s network on numerous occasions, including more than a half-dozen times this year alone.
Many of al-Jamal’s sanctioned vessels fly flags of convenience, registering in jurisdictions with lax anti-money laundering and counter-terror finance regimes, such as Panama, the Marshall Islands, Palau, and others. This tactic poses a risk to international maritime security and makes it more difficult to enforce sanctions against Iran’s malign influence. The United States has previously asked these countries to strip sanctioned Iranian vessels of their flags.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 19-20/2024
The US needs more pop-up air bases worldwide to keep enemies guessing
Bradley Bowman and Lydia LaFavor/Defence News/August 19/2024
The U.S. Air Force completed the eight-day Bamboo Eagle 24-3 exercise on Aug. 10, bringing over 3,000 service members and more than 150 aircraft together to operate in the Western United States and Eastern Pacific. The large-scale exercise paired important Agile Combat Employment (ACE) training with a Red Flag exercise designed to hone cutting-edge tactics for air warfare. This exercise, and future efforts like it, are critical to strengthening the U.S. Air Force’s (USAF) ability to operate in contested environments at all echelons, which is essential to deterring and defeating aggression in the Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East.
By doctrinal definition, ACE is the “proactive and reactive operational scheme of maneuver executed within threat timelines to increase survivability while generating combat power.” In translation, this means air forces must be able to flex from major regional bases to smaller or non-traditional operating sites to survive and continue operations.
Such operations require a challenging reconceptualization of everything in the generative process for airpower, including command and control, maintenance, logistics, and air and missile defense for ground operations, to name a few considerations. Developments in the strategic environment underscore that reconceptualization is also essential.
The Commission on the National Defense Strategy report released on July 30 echoes longstanding concerns of USAF leadership that adversaries will aggressively target overseas air bases to prevent them from being used to launch and recover aircraft. Consider the growing threats in the Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East and initial efforts to respond to challenges the services have not confronted in recent decades.
In the Pacific, Pentagon assessments note the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has the ballistic and cruise missiles to target regional air bases, ports, and ground infrastructure in Japan and the Philippines, as well as U.S. bases as far away as Guam. In a major contingency in the Taiwan Strait, the USAF must be able to sink ships and destroy adversary aircraft. It will be difficult to sustain that effort if American pilots have nowhere to land.
In Europe, Russian forces continue to use long-range fires, hypersonic missiles, and unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to target Ukrainian air operations on the ground. Eyeing these developments, even the newest NATO members, Sweden and Finland, are developing low-footprint air operations by landing advanced fighters on highways to refuel and re-arm while rapidly relocating both between and within bases.
Since August 2020, U.S. Air Forces Central Command has telegraphed episodes of its ACE implementation in the Middle East for deterrent effect against Tehran. ACE maneuvers increased in complexity over time and included hot-pit refueling at non-traditional sites, tactical munitions ferrying to forward locations, agile airlift, dynamic command and control, and the deployment of mobile long-range fires for organic forward operating location defense. Most recently, these maneuvers incorporated aircraft launching from U.S. Air Forces Europe for a coalition exercise in the Middle East.
Despite these early ACE-related advances, the USAF seeks to institutionalize ACE in the premier exercise for intensive air combat training: Red Flag. The massive resources invested in recurring Red Flag exercises and large numbers of participants, including coalition partners, create a perennial opportunity for increasingly complex ACE training to reach the largest number of airmen. Traditionally, Red Flag emphasizes aerial combat and is designed to test aircraft, aircrew, maintainers, and flightline-adjacent capabilities. But the incorporation of Bamboo Eagle into Red Flag was a stress test of the entire chain of command and the ability of Air Force wings to execute a kill chain when forced to disaggregate and re-aggregate across operating locations.
Bamboo Eagle also rehearsed the employment of advanced technologies that make such distributed operations and dynamic re-tasking possible. Those technologies included “an architecture where we can talk to any aircraft, any command post, any entity that plays a role in this system, anywhere in the world in real time,” USAF Warfare Center Commander Maj. Gen. Christopher Niemi stated in a media call on Aug. 1.
At a time of growing threats in multiple regions, ACE operations or exercises can be used as a signal to adversaries to bolster deterrence. Such operations cast doubt in the minds of military planners whether they can effectively target U.S. combat forces. That, in turn, will increase adversary concerns that the costs associated with any American response could exceed any benefits associated with prospective aggression. In other words, ACE can play a fundamental role in strengthening both deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment.
So, how can Congress and the State Department help? Congress should press the Air Force for its lessons learned from Bamboo Eagle, focusing on steps to improve future exercises as well as efforts to implement lessons learned and strengthen the necessary capabilities.
Congress should also provide the funding necessary to conduct increasingly large and complex exercises that span multiple combatant commands and are scripted specifically to improve the capability and capacity of the USAF to implement ACE doctrine in a contested environment in support of joint operations.
Meanwhile, the State Department should redouble efforts to gain host nation approval for Department of Defense access to a larger number of airfields and operating locations while also exploring opportunities to work with allied nations to develop plans and civilian infrastructure that could rapidly be converted for operational use. This could include maintenance of straight roads or highways, reservation of nondescript storage facilities, and even the clearance of terrain to meet landing zone or drop zone criteria. Encouraging their low-cost investments could prove vital in combined major combat operations.
Finally, Congress should press the Army and Marine Corps to redouble investments in, and maximize procurements of, portable air defense and counter-UAS solutions that the effective employment of ACE requires. Those solutions must be operable by the smallest teams possible, set up in minutes rather than hours, and fit in the cargo hold of a C-130 or smaller platforms designed to land in the most austere locations.
Adversary capabilities are growing, and serious new conflicts may be on the horizon. There is no time to waste to ensure the USAF can sustain progress in conducting disaggregated combat operations.
*Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Dr. Lydia LaFavor is a research fellow.

Why US foreign policy should focus on national interests, not just Israel - opinion
Sherwin Pomerantz/Jerusalem Post/August 19/2024
Amid demands for pro-Israel rhetoric, learn why US foreign policy should prioritize national interests and strategic goals over partisan pressures.
An item in this week’s news that the Republican Jewish Coalition in the United States is officially challenging every speaker at the Democratic Convention in Chicago to “praise Israel” – coupled with the never-ending questions about whether or not Democrat Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris is “good for Israel” – got me thinking that we all need a lesson in US politics and the responsibilities of political leadership there. First of all, everyone should understand that the US does not “owe” Israel anything other than what has been already covered by agreements between us. The $38 billion 10-year military aid package for Israel, signed in the waning days of the Obama administration (some of you did not like him either), and the Free Trade Agreement in place since 1984 between Israel and the US are two such formal obligations between the two countries.
The formulation of US foreign policy, similar to that of every other well-run democracy, is built on the principle of whether or not each decision is good for America. While decisions may certainly be somewhat affected by the opinion and policies of a sitting president, it is his or her overall obligation to base them on the best interests of the US, while being constrained, of course, by Congress and the will of the people. Ever since the Six Day War in 1967, the US has understood that Israel is a crucial security ally in the Middle East as well as (sadly for us, given the realities in which we live), a great place to test out America’s weaponry during our regular military skirmishes. While over these past 57 years, some US presidents have looked upon us kindlier than others, their overall policy toward Israel has been one of support along with occasional, sometimes obnoxious, criticism.
These past 10 months, under the leadership of President Joe Biden (whether one likes him or not), have seen probably the highest level of direct support for Israel since 1973, when former President Nixon overrode the objections of his Jewish secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, and sent us the ammunition and equipment to needed to stave off defeat in the Yom Kippur War There are other examples, of course, all falling under the umbrella of what is best for America. Nixon did not want to see Russian influence overrun the Middle East – while Biden understands that defending Israel from Iran and its proxies ties the hands of a country that ultimately wants to conquer the West.
Biden’s ability to twice craft a coalition of Western and Arab nations to work together to protect Israel in the case of an Iranian attack may relate somewhat to his personal feelings about our country, but make no mistake, the core driver is and must be to send a strong message to Iran and its proxies that they don’t have carte blanche to shoot up the world at will. America’s support for Israel, which simply does not exist in any other country, is due to a very successful and politically influential Jewish community; 11 million card-carrying Christian Evangelicals who are members of Christians United for Israel [CUFI]; 80% of Americans who see Israel in a positive light; and bi-partisan support in Congress (which while no longer 100% is still 90% in our favor). Although during the recently-concluded Republic National Convention (RNC) there was a fair amount of scheduled vocal support for Israel, it was not necessary there – and it is not needed at the Democratic National Convention either. What the electorate in the US should be demanding – and what we should be doing here with our government as well – is that our elected officials do what’s best for the country they represent. The delegates at a convention that ratifies candidates for president and vice president should ask to hear the platforms on which the candidates will campaign and implement, rather than whether they do or do not support Israel.
A waste of time
The current chatter about whether Vice President Kamala Harris will be good for Israel is a waste of time. Previously presidents who were thought of as not particularly friendly to us were supportive insofar as the US defense establishment considers Israel to be important for America’s security. US support may vary in intensity but will continue as long as providing such support has value for the US. And that is how it should be. No sitting president is going to treat Israel badly if they see that doing so potentially endangers the security of America or the West. The world’s problem is Iran. The threat to world peace comes from Iran and the Shi’ite commitment to destroy the infidel – which starts with us here in the Jewish state but will not end here. What America should be asking of their current presidential candidates is “What’s the plan for Iran?”. Support for Israel fits clearly into the answer. While the US does not owe us anything, it does have an obligation to protect and defend its citizens as any government should. That should be its main concern.
**The writer has lived in Israel for 40 years and is the founder and chair of Atid EDI Ltd., an international business development consultancy. He is also the founder and chair of the American State Offices Association, a former national president of the Association of Americans and Canadians in Israel (AACI), and a past chairperson of the Board of the Pardes Institute of Jewish Studies.

Iran's Gaza War: Ceasefire? What Ceasefire?
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/August 19, 2024
Hamas is now in dire need of a ceasefire because its leaders want to hold on to power in the Gaza Strip.
If the Biden-Harris administration and its Iranian, Qatari and Egyptian allies manage to impose a ceasefire on Israel, it will be viewed by many Arabs and Muslims not only as a reward for the October 7 massacres, but specifically as a lifeline for Hamas.
Hamas officials, however, were more honest than the Americans, Egyptians and Qataris. These officials were quick to deny any progress in the ceasefire talks and described them as "a waste of time."
According to reports, Hamas has demanded that the Israeli army completely withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. Until recently, Hamas maintained exclusive control over the border, which allowed it to smuggle weapons and ammunition into the Gaza Strip over the past two decades.
Hamas, in addition, insists on releasing the Israeli hostages in phases. It clearly wants to hold on to as many hostages as possible as an "insurance policy" to avoid being targeted by Israel in the future. Hamas apparently wants the negotiations over the hostages to continue forever, so it can use the time to rebuild its terror infrastructure and prepare for more attacks on Israel.
In Israel, meanwhile, the plight of the hostages has been hijacked by the political rivals of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They are inciting the families of the abductees to demand a deal with Hamas at any cost, including surrendering to Hamas to end the war, and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
[I]f Israel is forced to relinquish control of the Philadelphi Corridor, it will effectively lose the war. Such a move would mean a return to the pre-October 7 era, when Hamas and other Iran-backed terror proxies controlled the border with Egypt and used it to smuggle weapons and ammunition into the Gaza Strip.
A ceasefire now will just allow Hamas to regroup, rearm and prepare for more attacks against Israel. A ceasefire does not mean that Hamas would abandon its plan to eliminate Israel and replace it with an Islamist state.
The Biden-Harris administration is, sadly, dead wrong if it believes that a ceasefire will open the door to security and stability in the Middle East. A ceasefire would simply give the Iranian regime and its terrorist allies more confidence, especially when they have nuclear weapons, to pursue their Jihad (holy war) against the Jews and Israel, and then their neighbors in the Gulf.
If the Biden-Harris administration manages to impose a ceasefire on Israel, it will be viewed by many Arabs and Muslims not only as a reward for the October 7 massacres, but specifically as a lifeline for Hamas. If Israel is forced to relinquish control of the Philadelphi Corridor, it will effectively lose the war. Such a move would mean a return to the pre-October 7 era, when Hamas and other Iran-backed terror proxies controlled the border with Egypt and used it to smuggle weapons and ammunition into the Gaza Strip. Pictured: A large Hamas tunnel between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, beneath the Philadelphi Corridor, discovered by the Israeli military on August 4, 2024. (Photo source: IDF)
On October 7, 2023, the Iran-backed Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, along with thousands of "ordinary" Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, invaded Israel. While chanting "Allahu Akbar" ("Allah is the greatest"), they tortured, abused, raped, burned and beheaded, murdering more than 1,200 Israelis, including women, children and babies. They also kidnapped more than 240 Israelis to the Gaza Strip.
More than 10 months after the Hamas-led atrocities, the Biden administration is continuing to exert pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas. Bizarrely, the Biden administration is working with Hamas's friends in Qatar and Egypt to force Israel to make concessions to the Hamas murderers and rapists, including ending the war against the terror group and abandoning control over the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.
Qatar is the only Arab country that has long been hosting and supporting most of the Hamas leaders.
Egypt, meanwhile, has turned a blind eye to the vast network of tunnels dug by Hamas under the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt over the past two decades. The tunnels have been used by Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups to smuggle weapons and ammunition into the Gaza Strip. The weapons, including huge numbers of rockets and missiles, were always used for attacks against Israel.
Hamas is now in dire need of a ceasefire because its leaders want to hold on to power in the Gaza Strip. They seem to have concluded that pressure from the US and the rest of the international community, including Qatar and Egypt, would make it extremely difficult for Israel to resume fighting against Hamas once a ceasefire is reached.
If the Biden-Harris administration and its Iranian, Qatari and Egyptian allies manage to impose a ceasefire on Israel, it will be viewed by many Arabs and Muslims not only as a reward for the October 7 massacres, but specifically as a lifeline for Hamas.
Allowing Hamas to stay in power will, as its leaders have openly stated, facilitate its mission of carrying out more atrocities against Israel.
Senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad said shortly after the October 7 massacre that Hamas will repeat the October 7 attack, time and again, until Israel is annihilated. Hamad stated:
"Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove that country, because it constitutes a security, military, and political catastrophe to the Arab and Islamic nation, and must be finished. We are not ashamed to say this, with full force.... The Al-Aqsa Flood [the name Hamas uses to describe its attack on Israel] is just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth..."
"The world in its entirety must unite in order to uproot this cancer," Khalil Al-Hayya, a member of the Hamas political bureau, announced on August 1.
Last week, in a US mediation effort, representatives of the US, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt met in Doha, Qatar, in yet another bid to end the Israel-Hamas war and secure the release of 115 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas terrorists inside the Gaza Strip.
After the Doha summit, the US, Egypt and Qatar said that the talks were constructive and conducted in a positive atmosphere. All three countries added that they presented Israel and Hamas with a proposal and hope to continue working on the details of the implementation in the coming days.
The Biden-Harris administration seems desperate to reach any deal between Israel and Hamas ahead of the US presidential election on November 5. The administration appears to be afraid that the continuation of the war would alienate Arab and Muslim voters in the US.
Hamas officials, however, were more honest than the Americans, Egyptians and Qataris. These officials were quick to deny any progress in the ceasefire talks and described them as "a waste of time."
According to reports, Hamas has demanded that the Israeli army completely withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. Until recently, Hamas maintained exclusive control over the border, which allowed it to smuggle weapons and ammunition into the Gaza Strip over the past two decades.
Hamas, in addition, insists on releasing the Israeli hostages in phases. It clearly wants to hold on to as many hostages as possible as an "insurance policy" to avoid being targeted by Israel in the future. Hamas apparently wants the negotiations over the hostages to continue forever, so it can use the time to rebuild its terror infrastructure and prepare for more attacks on Israel.
In Israel, meanwhile, the plight of the hostages has been hijacked by the political rivals of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They are inciting the families of the abductees to demand a deal with Hamas at any cost, including surrendering to Hamas to end the war, and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli army recently uncovered more than 50 tunnel shafts along the Philadelphi Corridor, which Israeli troops took control of in May. Since then, the Israeli army has located and destroyed dozens of tunnels, including a 10-foot-high tunnel large enough for vehicles to drive through that was dug directly underneath an Egyptian army position on the border.
Every Palestinian child in the Gaza Strip knows that if Israel is forced to relinquish control of the Philadelphi Corridor, it will effectively lose the war. Such a move would mean a return to the pre-October 7 era, when Hamas and other Iran-backed terror proxies controlled the border with Egypt and used it to smuggle weapons and ammunition into the Gaza Strip.
A ceasefire now will just allow Hamas to regroup, rearm and prepare for more attacks against Israel. A ceasefire does not mean that Hamas would abandon its plan to eliminate Israel and replace it with an Islamist state. Hamas remains as committed as ever to its 1988 charter, which begins with this quote from Hassan Al-Banna, founder of the Muslim Brotherhood organization: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it."
The Biden administration seems to have forgotten that all previous ceasefire agreements were breached by Hamas and its allies in the Gaza Strip. It also appears to have forgotten that until October 7 there was a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, albeit an unofficial one. The most prominent official ceasefire, of course, signed by all the parties involved, was the 1993 Oslo Accord, violated within weeks when PLO Chairman and Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, according to Avi Dichter, a former Director of Israel's Shin Bet internal security service, smuggled four arch-terrorists in his car, "[T]hree [of them] were in the trunks of [a separate] Mercedes," and the fourth – Jihad al-Amarin – "was lying on the back seat with the president of the PA sitting on top of him."
Months later, on May 19, 1994, at a mosque service in Johannesburg, South Africa, Arafat explained that the Oslo Accord was like the Treaty of Hudaibiyyah. After the Islamic prophet Mohammed had signed a truce not to attack the Quraish Tribe for ten years, he returned in two years, wiped the Quraish out and conquered Mecca.
The Biden-Harris administration is, sadly, dead wrong if it believes that a ceasefire will open the door to security and stability in the Middle East. A ceasefire would simply give the Iranian regime and its terrorist allies more confidence, especially when they have nuclear weapons, to pursue their Jihad (holy war) against the Jews and Israel, and then their neighbors in the Gulf.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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In a new book, former MP Bassem al-Sabeh recalls the thorny relationship between the slain ex-PM and ruling elite in Syria.
London: Asharq Al Awsat/August 19/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133403/
Rafik Hariri after First Meeting with Bashar Assad: I Became More Afraid for Syria, Not Lebanon
Asharq Al-Awsat is publishing a series of excerpts from a new book by former Lebanese MP Bassem al-Sabeh in which he recalls the thorny relationship between slain former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and members of the ruling elite in Syria. “Lebanon in the Shadows of Hell: from the Taif Accord to Hariri’s Assassination” is published by All Prints Distributors & Publishers.
Sabeh worked as an aide to Hariri until his killing in February 2005. He served as lawmaker from 1992 to 2009. He was also appointed information minister in Hariri’s government between 1996 and 1998. Sabeh is a member of Hariri’s Mustaqbal Movement and a pillar of the March 14 movement that opposed Syria’s political and security hegemony over Lebanon.
Hariri’s ties with the Syrian leadership extended to around 25 years. In the early 1980s, he acted as an envoy to Saudi King Fahad bin Abdulaziz and accompanied Prince Badr bin Sultan’s diplomatic visits when it came to Arab efforts to end the Lebanese civil war.
At the time, Lebanon and Syria’s relationship revolved around interests and political and personal calculations of Syrian officials, whom Syrian President Hafze al-Assad had given permission to interfere in Lebanese affairs. Hariri had to maneuver around these interests as he attempted to forge ties with the Syrian leadership.
Hariri was in direct contact with Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam, army commander Hikmat al-Shehabi, head of Syria's security apparatus in Lebanon Ghazi Kanaan, and military intelligence officer Rustom Ghazaleh. Bashar al-Assad would join the list in the final years of his father, Hafez’s, life.
Other notable Syrian figures at the time included Bassel al-Assad, Bashar’s older brother, who died in a car crash in 1994. He was being groomed to succeed his father as president. Other figures included Maher al-Assad, Bashar’s younger brother, military officer Assef Shawkat, intelligence officer Ali Mamlouk, Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass, foreign minister Walid al-Muallem and his predecessor Farouk al-Sharaa.
Hariri’s ties with Hafez emerged and developed and were tested under the umbrella of Saudi-Syrian relations. They were ruled by conditions that bolstered mutual trust and respect between them. The good relations did not extend to any of Hafez’s three sons. Rather, they were marked by a lot of mistrust and suspicion that ultimately left grave damage to Lebanese-Syrian ties that culminated in United Nations Security Council resolution 1559 and left Lebanon and Syria revolving in a cycle of mutual spite.
Bassel al-Assad.
Before Bashar entered the picture, Hafez was grooming his eldest son, Bassel, to become president. He was the undisputed heir to the presidency. He was Syria’s number one equestrian champion and excelled at his studies at the Soviet Military Academies. He rose up the ranks to become commander of the republican guard.
Bashar, meanwhile, earned his medical degree from Syria before heading to London for postgraduate training in ophthalmology. He was summoned back to Damascus in 1994 after Bassel’s death. He was groomed to become Hafez’s heir. Maher was seen as too hardline to succeed Bassel. He nevertheless is part of the ruling elite, and has been the number two in the regime after he took over the republican guard and Fourth Brigade.
I attended Bassel’s funeral in Syria’s al-Qardaha. In attendance were Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, senior Syrian officials and others. Unlike other officials, Hariri cried at the funeral. I asked him about it later, knowing that he had never met Bassel and shared no ties with him. He replied: “At that moment, I recalled my son Hussam [who passed away in a car accident in the US in the late 1980s]. There is no harder experience than that for a father. God help President Assad.”
Bassel, Bashar and Maher played various roles in influencing Hariri’s political role. Other Syrian officials who also played a similar part included Kanaan, in his capacity as head of the Syrian security apparatus in Lebanon, Mohammed Nassif, who is known for his loyalty to the Assad family, and Shawkat, Hafez’s son-in-law who rose to prominence after Bassel’s death.
Hariri did try to achieve some rapprochement with Bassel in the early 1990s, but Hafez stood in his war. Hariri would try to again forge ties with his other son, Bashar in the late 1990s.
At the time, relations between the two men were very frosty after Lebanese army commander and later President Emile Lahoud was chosen as Syria’s number one man in Lebanon. Lahoud was elected president in 1998 and was given free rein by Syria in acting out in spite against Hariri and launching defamation campaigns against his policies soon after his term as PM ended.
Hariri sought to break the campaign launched against him by Lahoud - with the backing of Kanaan and Ghazaleh. He believed it was necessary to tackle the situation head-on by heading to the source of the problem and tackling the possible means to rectify the relationship.
He made an unannounced visit to Damascus to meet with Hafez. It was 1999 and Hafez would die the following year. Hariri realized during that meeting that Hafez had finished paving the way for Bashar to succeed him.
Hafez advised Hariri to be open with Bashar and speak with him directly about Lebanon and ties with Syria. “Bashar has good relations with Lahoud and he can address the situation,” he quoted Hafez as saying. Hariri agreed to the suggestion without hesitation. In turn, Hafez pledged to arrange a meeting with his son. At that moment, Hariri realized that his friend Khaddam’s role in the regime had been diminished and that he needed to speak directly with Bashar to curry favor with Damascus.
Hariri summoned me to his Qoreitem residence in Beirut in late September 1999. He told me that we were headed to Damascus on an unannounced visit. I was not informed who we will be meeting even as the convoy sped to the border. “Are you going to meet the president?” I asked. “Someone more important than him. I will be meeting with Bashar. This is what the old man [Hafez] wants. There is a need to open a new chapter,” replied Hariri. “The father’s health is declining and the young man will come to power. I am being asked to help him. This is the first time I head to Damascus without meeting Khaddam. At any rate, I don’t want him to know now. I’ll tell him later.”
In Syria, a convoy escorted us to Mount Qasioun that overlooks Damascus. There, Bassel had built a mini villa that he used as his office. Bashar had inherited it from him.
Bashar welcomed Hariri into his office, while Wissam al-Hassan and Yehya al-Arab - of Hariri’s security entourage - and I remained in the nearby salon. Signaling my companions to remain quiet, I tried to eavesdrop on the conversation going on in the office, but all I heard were murmurings and some laughter. I hoped that any snippet of conversation could break the tension.
The meeting went on for around an hour and a half. Bashar bid farewell to his guest the same way he greeted him. He accorded us with a farewell gesture, but without a handshake or speaking to us.
Hariri and I rode back to Lebanon together in the same car. He remained silent for most of the journey in Syria. “How was the meeting? You’re unusually silent,” I told him. “We’ll talk later” was his reply. When we entered Lebanon, he parked the car just near the border and told me to take the wheel.
He started talking as soon as we got back into the car. “The meeting was necessary and definitely good. Do you want me to be blunt? After this meeting, I am no longer afraid for Lebanon. We can handle our own problems. We are used to falling down and getting back up. I am now afraid for Syria,” he said.
“How so?” I asked. “After Hafez, Syria will be ruled by a child. God help Syria,” replied Hariri after which he reclined his seat and slept.
The next day, he told me that Bashar’s main concern now revolved around “arranging the internal house of his party, regime and family to address any emergency related to his father’s health. He sees in my friendship an opening to forge foreign relations which he will need in the coming period.” Hariri said Bashar asked him about his relationship with French President Jacques Chirac, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz and the American administration. He asked for cooperation with Lahoud and to monitor the changes that will take place in Syria.
“The young man is awaiting the death of his father without openly saying it. He said his father’s health was concerning and that he was suffering from complications from diabetes,” added Hariri. He seemed reassured that Bashar was being preoccupied with the situation inside Syria.
Hafez realized that his son won’t kick off his term in office securely without the support of the Arab and international fold. He perhaps believed that Hariri could be a major player in paving the way for this support and who better than Hariri could achieve that?
*Next excerpt: Sole Article on the Agenda ... Insulting Rafik al-Hariri

Ukraine Defies the U.S. to Launch a Showy Offensive Into Russia
Vladislav Davidzon/The Tablet/August 19/2024
Observing Israel’s moves in the Middle East, Kyiv gambles on an American power vacuum
On Aug. 6, Ukrainian mechanized forces, likely a division strong, invaded Russia’s Kursk Oblast. In the process, Kyiv had recaptured the battlefield initiative, undermined the narrative that it was doomed to surrender, and caused the Kremlin obvious political embarrassment. The Ukrainian high command claims that the incursion has resulted in the capture of 74 settlements and the occupation of 390 square miles of Russian territory—more than double what the Russians concede. Moscow was forced to evacuate nearly 200,000 civilians from the Kursk and Belgorod regions, as it brought in reserves and heavy weaponry, while the Russian air force began striking the Ukrainian forces in Kursk and across the border in the Sumy Oblast. While the Ukrainian military claimed on Tuesday that it has gained an additional 15 square miles, the Russians said they have blocked any further advance.
Whatever its strategic significance turns out to be, the Ukrainians maintain they were sending a signal to the Kremlin as well as to the White House that Kyiv was finished operating under self-defeating constraints and that it would now probe red lines that had been set out by both powers. Kyiv has long been frustrated at being provided with just enough support from Washington in order to not lose—but not enough to overcome the numerically superior and better financed Russian army. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed that frustration publicly, stating that “our partners are afraid of Russia losing the war.”Unlike last summer’s failed counteroffensive in Kharkiv, Ukraine launched the Kursk operation without first informing Washington of its plans. In fact, Zelenskyy waited a week to break the remarkable operational secrecy that had enveloped the operation.
Ukraine’s decision to proceed came exactly a week after Israel had carried out a pair of high-profile assassinations deep in enemy territory.
What changed in July is that the Ukrainians, like other embattled U.S. allies, were faced with a new opportunity in Washington: The cognitively impaired president had been forced out of his reelection bid in favor of his vice president, who was now out on the campaign trail, three months before the election. With this emergent power vacuum at the White House, the Ukrainians decided to bypass both the deposed occupant of the White House as well as the staff of his hypercautious National Security Council, instead of slowly bleeding to death under rules guaranteed to produce slow-motion defeat.
“The United States government currently has no strategy for Ukraine. Zero. None at all,” a former high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence and national security official told Tablet. “That fact is apparent to the current Ukrainian government. The political decision and the timing chosen to go into Kursk were made at the political level by the Zelenskyy administration at the request of the army command. Which wanted to take the initiative.” The former intelligence official added, “This is war, and I cannot recall an example, any time in history, of a war being won while commanders were unable to make their own decisions and to take on their own responsibilities.”
The Ukrainians had planned this type of operation for a long time—reports of Kyiv’s plots to launch incursions into Russia go back to early 2023. Tellingly, however, the decision to proceed came exactly a week after Israel had carried out a pair of high-profile assassinations deep in enemy territory. On July 31, the Israelis took out Hamas’ former chief Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran guesthouse during the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president. The day before, they had eliminated the top Hezbollah military commander, Fuad Shukr, in the heart of the group’s stronghold in Beirut.
Kyiv observed carefully how Israel conducted its strikes immediately after Prime Minister Netanyahu returned from a triumphant speech before the U.S. Congress. In fact, earlier this week the chair of the Ukrainian Parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defense, Roman Kostenko, explicitly referenced the Israeli example in a televised interview. “So Israel announced that they would take the advice of their partners very seriously but would afterward make their own decisions in the best interest of their own national security. I think that we can simply mirror that approach in our own case.”
There are limits to the analogy with Israel, which is fighting a much weaker terror group in an infinitely smaller territory the borders of which Jerusalem controls entirely. Nevertheless, Ukraine seeks to leverage the optics of turning the tables on the Russians to force the Americans to back a fait accompli on the battlefield. While the motivation behind the Ukrainian decision is clear, less so is its ultimate objective. It is far too early to draw serious assessments of Ukraine’s battlefield successes. Caught off guard, the Russians are currently on their back foot. But they may very well regroup, counterattack and drive out the Ukrainian forces. Should the Russians succeed in recapturing the entirety of the occupied Russian territory, before the Ukrainians are able to leverage their gains, the Ukrainian gamble could prove to have been a costly waste of scarce resources and manpower. It is also possible that this assault is merely a preamble or diversion for another forthcoming strike in a different theater of operations.
That said, there is no denying that the current incursion into Kursk is substantively and qualitatively different from Ukraine’s earlier, limited raids into Russia’s Belgorod region. Last year’s lightning raids and temporary raising of Ukrainian flags over a few Russian border villages were conducted using units of exiled Russian defectors to offer a modicum of deniability. The current offensive has seen detachments of elite, battle-hardened Ukrainian battalions deployed, backed by air power, and with the mechanized Ukrainian force seemingly attempting a blitz to take as much territory and as many targets of opportunity as possible: railroad hubs, energy infrastructure such as the Sudzha gas hub currently in the Ukrainian forces’ hands, and possibly the local nuclear power plant. Signaling their intention to dig in, the commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced last Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant’s office in the parts of the Kursk region under its control.
The Ukrainians hoped the Kursk operation would challenge the consensus that they could not break out of a stalemate. While Kyiv intended to get the Russians to transfer some units out of front-line positions in order to make them defend their own territory and reduce pressure along the front, the number of Russian battalions likely to have been rotated out from the front lines appears to be less than what the Ukrainian general staff would have hoped for. Much of the defense of Kursk Oblast seems to be conducted by ad hoc Russian forces cobbled together from a combination of conscripts, interior ministry troops, border guards, Chechen units, national guard, and units already stationed inside the country. Furthermore, the Ukrainians also had to shift their own resources for the Kursk operation, which led to Russian gains around, and the likely fall of, the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk Oblast.
One effect that the operation has definitely had is lifting the stoic but somewhat depressed public mood, which is now at its highest point since the start of the successful Kherson counteroffensive two years ago. The Ukrainians have long desired to bring the consequences of the war home to the Russian citizens who are perfectly willing to countenance the war so long as it does not inconvenience them directly. Moreover, Kyiv hopes to showcase its capacity to deploy Western arms (including the newly arrived American F-16 fighter jets) in order to create the impression that it is more than just a romantic lost cause. Introducing a new equation that ostensibly exposes the limits of the Russian military and forces a stalemate of sorts would be the best outcome Kyiv could hope for with this operation, as both sides wait to see the results of the November election in the United States.
Putin seems to understand the Ukrainian offensive as a negotiating ploy. On Monday, he said that Kyiv, “with the help of its Western masters,” was trying to improve its negotiating position”—though the Russian offer remains a set of nonnegotiable demands (which include Ukraine giving up five provinces to Russia) and a Ukrainian surrender.
All the Russian rhetoric about Kyiv’s “Western masters” notwithstanding, the White House and the Pentagon were also caught off guard. White House spokesman John Kirby admitted that the U.S. was still trying to gain a better understanding of what Ukraine is doing with its Kursk incursion, quickly adding that “There’s been no changes in our policy approaches,” with respect to U.S. weapons and how they’re used, stating that the Ukrainians were still using the weapons “in an area where we had said before that they could use U.S. weapons for cross-border strikes.”
Kyiv’s gambit, therefore, rests on its ability to show Washington that it not only can mount meaningful military maneuvers, but that it can do so inside Russia, while also maintaining U.S. buy-in and support. A meme circulating over Ukrainian social media captured this tightrope walk: “If the United States will only let you use ATACMS at a certain distance from the border, you should simply move the border!”
For now, the Pentagon has signaled its approval by releasing a previously planned $125 million tranche of new munitions and air defense materials several days after Kyiv initiated the Kursk operation.
The Ukrainians demonstrated remarkable operational discipline in preparing this offensive—ordinary soldiers were reportedly only informed of the battle plans the day before they were sent over the Russian border. Keeping the Americans in the dark was also key to keeping the Russian intelligence services and army from being able to prepare. “We have learned some very hard lessons from the events of the previous counteroffensive,” a highly placed member of Zelenskyy’s team informed Tablet. “Last summer we told everyone what we were going to do and we all know how that turned out. Everyone knew what we were going to do and in which location we intended to strike. There is definitely something to be learned from the Israeli example of acting first and only later explaining what you are doing.”
A senior member of the British government who is involved at the highest levels of shaping British policy toward Kyiv has informed Tablet that he was pleased with the start of the operation, since the more careful American approach had not been working for Kyiv. “The Ukrainians had to change the dynamics of the war quickly or to suffer the consequences and they are now done fighting with one hand tied behind their back. So we now have the spectacle of the Russian air force bombing their own cities,” he told Tablet with bemusement. “The British have a very different approach to military strategy in which attack is the best form of defense.”
All the Ukrainian officials that Tablet spoke with expressed cautious optimism over the outcome of the incursion, despite the inherent risks of such an operation turning out badly and large numbers of elite Ukrainian troops dying for no discernible strategic battlefield purpose. The highly placed member of the Zelenskyy team was philosophical about the possibility of bad outcomes: “We will see how it will all turn out in the long run. But for now we really needed this victory. We really, really needed a bit of peremoha, or victory. People were really starting to lose their nerve.”
More importantly, the official was also confident that the Americans would not pull back support in the aftermath of the Ukrainian incursion. “We have just received the latest aid package from Washington, which represents a de facto legitimization,” he underlined. “The lesson here is that you should just behave in the way that the Americans do themselves. You should do what the Americans themselves do. Not what they tell you to do.”
*Vladislav Davidzon is Tablet’s European culture correspondent and a Ukrainian American writer, translator, and critic. He is the Chief Editor of The Odessa Review and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He was born in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, and lives in Paris.

The Ominous Threat of a Terrorist Attack Waiting to Happen on US Soil
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 19/2024
How much of a terrorist threat does the porous US/Mexico border pose to the average American citizen today? For those able to connect the dots, the (rather ominous) answer is readily available.
According to a recent Bloomberg report,
The Border Patrol … reported 172 encounters last fiscal year of people whose names appeared on a list of known or suspected terrorists and their associates. That’s a steep increase over previous years: 98 in 2022, 16 in 2021, three in 2020, and three in 2019. The agency has already seen 81 more so far this fiscal year, which began in October.
And 2024 already seems to be on the verge of breaking 2023’s record. In January alone, Border Patrol “encountered” 50 more people on terror watch lists.
Even so, the same Bloomberg report tries to minimize its findings:
But it’s a fraction of a percent of overall Border Patrol encounters. Last year’s 172 hits [of people with terrorist ties], for example, represented just 0.0083% of overall encounters of noncitizens at the northern and southern borders.
This is hardly reassuring. Since when has the ability to commit terrorism been based on numbers? If 19 jihadis can utterly traumatize the US, as they did on 9/11, surely even one terrorist is one terrorist too many.
Just recently, the New York Post reported that three Palestinian terror suspects have been caught after illegally crossing the porous southern border in the San Diego sector.
Overwhelmed Border Patrol agents tell The Post that they do not have the tools to fully vet the migrants who are coming in from all over the world — particularly into the San Diego area.
Mostly, they are only able to use US terror watchlists and other American resources to help determine which migrants could be a terror threat. Border agents do not have access to terror or criminal databases from other countries.
“Knowing who these guys are, we have, like, no access to anything international. Like, we really don’t and it kind of sucks,” said one border agent, who spoke anonymous[ly] because [he is] not authorized to give public statements.
But Wait! There’s More
As an example of who these people with terror links are, most recently, according to a July 10 report,
A record number of illegal immigrants from Tajikistan have entered the United States and been released by border patrol so far this year, despite the fact that the nation is known to be a recruitment hotbed for the Islamic State.
The report goes on to say that “hundreds of Tajiks have been allowed into the country” under the Biden administration. For the record, the ISIS terrorists who committed one of the most horrific terrorist attacks this year (which took place at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow in March) were Tajiks. And it took only four of them to massacre 145 civilians while seriously injuring more than 500. It was the deadliest attack in Europe in 20 years.
We should also remember that for every one, or 50, or 172 people with terror links that Border Patrol “encounters,” countless more have escaped and blended into the American public. Thus, according to a June 25 report, “50 immigrants brought to US through an ISIS-tied smuggling ring are unaccounted for by DHS.”Then there are those terrorists who are captured — only to be released into the US again. In March, Mohammad Kharwin, an illegal from Afghanistan, was released “by an immigration judge who was not told he was a national security threat.” The judge ordered “no restrictions on his movements inside the U.S.”
Most Crimes Increase — But Not All
It’s interesting to note that, while all metrics of criminality have increased in the US in direct response to its growing illegal population, acts of terrorism have not — even though the entry of those with terror links has been increasing. For example, after pointing out that “In 2023 alone, Border Patrol agents have encountered thousands of illegal aliens with prior criminal convictions, including assault, rape, and murder,” one report goes on to point out that “64% of federal arrests in 2018 involved noncitizens, despite them comprising only 7% of the population at that time.”
Most if not all of these arrests were not terrorism-related, but dealt with “generic” crimes.
This may seem to pose a conundrum: If known terrorists are entering the US, why have we not witnessed another spectacular terrorist attack on American soil? This question becomes more intriguing when one realizes that people with terror links entering the US is a phenomenon that goes many years back — well before Joe Biden took office (though obviously at a much smaller rate). In 2012, for example, I wrote an article on this very topic of how Muslim terrorists were eyeing and crossing the border into the US. And the data I relied on went back to the early 2000s.
Moreover, those spelling out the threat in no uncertain terms go back years. In 2019, a captured Islamic State fighter actually confessed how, in an effort to terrorize America on its own soil, ISIS was committed to exploiting the porous US-Mexico border, including through the aid of ISIS-sympathizers living in the United States.That was over five years ago: millions of unknown people have passed through the border since.
To sum up, we are left with these two facts:
Many people with Islamic terror ties are illegally entering the US through the southern border with Mexico and the vast majority of them are not caught.
Both statistics and common sense indicate that illegals bring with them a rise in the types of crimes they are known to have committed in their nations of origin: thus, as more drug dealers and rapists enter the US, drug-dealing (think fentanyl crisis) and sex crimes increase.
And yet… although the number of terrorist-affiliated people entering the US has also exponentially risen, we have not seen a commensurate rise in terrorist attacks on US soil from them.
Why?
The Long Game
For those who understand the jhadist mindset and the nature of terrorism, the answer should be clear: rapists, drug dealers, and criminals of all sorts act out their impulses in an instinctive and random manner.
But terrorists don’t.
Terrorism is methodical by nature. It revolves around small numbers of committed “believers” plotting and planning — and, most importantly, biding their time for the right moment to strike (which may be years down the line).
To achieve their goal, they often create and live out fake personas for years, to better blend in with their targeted population (such as the 9/11 hijackers, who patiently learned to fly planes in American schools under the guise that they were getting their pilots’ licenses). Another telling example concerns how a terror cell in Turkey infiltrated a church. For more than a year, the terrorists put on a sophisticated act, including feigning conversion to Christianity, regularly attending church, and all in all behaving “like family” to the congregation — though in reality they were planning a massive terror strike against the church.
Islam augments terrorism’s methodical, patient nature by doctrine and repeatedly mentions it in the Koran, as in 7:4: “How many a township have we destroyed! As a raid by night, or while they slept at noon, our terror came unto them.” The prophet of Islam himself, who began his career weak and outnumbered, confessed: “I have been made victorious with terror.”Another reason why the many terrorists already ensconced in the US have not yet struck should be obvious: striking now, under the last vestiges of the Biden administration, which has left the border wide open, would be counterproductive; it would bring much more criticism and thus concrete moves to quickly seal the border, which would only work against the terrorists, who are no doubt still actively exploiting it. Much better to wait until, say, Donald Trump reenters the White House and quickly moves to seal off the border. At that point, not only will they have nothing to lose, but striking during Trump’s tenure would only undermine his prestige — a win-win for the jihadists.
In short, the fact that no major terror attack has taken place since the Mexico border was flung wide open is almost more ominous than if something minor had happened. Then we would know that those coming in with terror links are amateurs.
But the fact that we know there are ISIS-linked terrorists spread throughout the US who have done nothing yet is, regrettably, a sure sign that something big is in the works.
**Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West and Sword and Scimitar, is the Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

The Failures of Piecemeal Diplomacy and the Day After
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/August 19/2024
All eyes are on the negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza. Despite the strenuous efforts, however, the picture does not seem rosy. The talks could falter as they had before, bringing us back to square one. Even if we assume that the negotiations will succeed, a compromise is reached despite the many difficult points of contention thanks to American efforts, especially its diplomatic and military moves, a truce is declared, the hostages are released, and a wider war in the region between Israel and Iran (and behind it Hezbollah) is averted. What would await us the day after? Would this success open the door to further negotiations that could give rise to a comprehensive solution?
In fact, the day after in Gaza is tied to a number of problems and difficult questions that could dispel optimism about stopping the killing machine and additional rounds of complementary negotiations. The first of these problems is the fate of Hamas and its role in Gaza, as well as the formula for allowing Yahya Sinwar to exercise his duties as its leader from above ground rather than tunnels and trenches, at a time when Israel holds him personally responsible for planning the October 7 operation and is determined to eliminate him and figures around him. There is no doubt that the negotiations would give Hamas some breathing room if they succeed, and there is also no doubt that its future would nonetheless remain linked to the major regional question, Iran’s role in the region and its patronage of proxies, which will continue so long as it considers them essential to maintaining regional influence.
This does not negate the fact that Hamas would be emerging exhausted from a devastating war that the Palestinians, before the Israelis, hold it responsible for. Moreover, Hamas is also struggling to deal with division within its ranks and the rifts between “Khomeini’s Hamas” and “Muslim Brotherhood’s Hamas,” and between the Gaza wing and the foreign wing. Hamas will not rule Gaza again, but it could maintain a presence in different forms. It could disarm and join a national unity government with the Palestinian Authority, or a technocratic government that it joins quietly, or come under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organization under a different name. Regardless of the nature of its presence, Hamas will probably strive to maintain its military capabilities and stick to its political principles.
This same is true for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Even if it implements Resolution 1701, Hezbollah will not turn the page on resistance. It will remain a pawn that Iran can use to further its plans: avoiding direct involvement in a fully-fledged war and preventing a comprehensive settlement for the Palestinian question, which would “delegitimize” its intervention in the region, or rather the mobile wars it instigates to serve its interests.
The second problem is the mindset of Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist government, in addition to the divisions within Israeli society, which have deepened after the Gaza war turned into a war of attrition. It has become clear that this government is bent on denying the Palestinians all of their rights, and Al-Aqsa Flood has given it a reason to enter a war through which it seeks to root out the Palestinian cause, and not just eliminate Hamas. We also see it chasing a broader war that it seeks to drag the world, first and foremost the United States, into. Some might think that Netanyahu made a mistake when he ordered the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran seven hours after the assassination of Fuad Shukr in Beirut. However, he did so with the intention of provoking an escalation by Iran and Hezbollah that would drag them, especially Tehran, into direct war. A broader war is Netanyahu and his government’s baby. Given its composition, the government will not manage to accommodate the world’s vision for the day after in Gaza as it was laid out by President Joe Biden, who made clear that he will be pursuing one priority during what remains of time in office: ending the Gaza war and reinvigorating the American peace process in the Middle East. This is not a rosy picture; rather, it carries the seeds of future conflict. Past experiences in the region have taught us that diplomacy which treats pain but does not address the root causes and lay out a comprehensive solution, is not enough. The current diplomatic efforts are everything but comprehensive. Is it the right time to change the course of the region? Can we, with the time we have left, present settlements amid heightened tensions between the conflicting parties? Most observers assume that Biden will fail to do much in the coming months. Others believe that he can now focus on concluding an Israeli-Arab normalization deal, which would likely be conditioned on ending the war in Gaza and a comprehensive settlement. All of that requires an Arab partner who can play a proactive and bold role in ushering in a sustainable diplomatic solution that saves the region from the current volatility and the perpetuation of tragic cycles of violence. Peace will not be realized overnight, of course. However, we still have an opportunity to push the Biden administration, which has been working on a diplomatic path forward for months, and Kamala Harris, who seeks to spend the next four years in the White House, to chart a meaningfully different course. No one can erase the tragedies of the past nine months. However, the best approach for healing the pain and addressing the repercussions of everything that has happened during this war, is to open a new chapter. Biden and his vice president- like the Arabs- must not squander the opportunities available to them.

Strong Men Who Have No Solution
Ghassan Charbel/ Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/August 19/2024
People are drawn to strong leaders. Such a leader can either polish the image of his nation or conceal its fragility. He can curb the ambitions of enemies or thwart their plots. His strength offers a sense of invincibility, allowing his people to feel secure and proud. A strong leader imposes security and stability and protects against chaos, while also spreading reassurance and maintaining control over the official narrative.
However, strength alone is not enough for a ruler or leader. What truly matters is how he wields his power. What drives his thoughts and decisions? What is his vision for the country's future and the destiny of its people? Sometimes, history overtakes even the strongest of leaders, reducing him to a mere pawn in the wars of his ancestors, caught in the web of past conflicts and vendettas.
There are times when a ruler's sole focus is on retaining power. He will be content with merely “uprooting the poisonous weeds” that threaten the dignity and survival of his regime. Some believe that powerful leaders seek out war to solidify their legitimacy, using border disputes as a baptism of fire. Yet, in the pursuit of such ambitions, a leader may stretch his country’s forces, pushing them into projects to reshape the region—or even the world—at a cost they can hardly bear.
Vladimir Putin is a strong leader with considerable popularity and a keen awareness of the nuclear button at his disposal. He is a man wounded by the past, driven by a desire to avenge “Holy Russia” against the West, which he believes dismantled the Soviet Union without a single shot.
From his office, he watched as NATO moved its pawns, gradually encircling his country. He deceived the West with his smiles, all the while focusing on rebuilding the “Red Army” to restore Russia’s image and stature. He chose Ukraine as the battleground to launch his most significant challenge against the West. He probably expected Ukraine to collapse quickly and the West to lack the resolve to respond. Yet now, the war is in its third year. Although his forces occupy a substantial portion of Ukraine, he is unable to bring the conflict to an end.
The recent Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory won’t alter the trajectory of wat, but have damaged the image of the Kremlin and its leader. It is no small matter for Stalin’s heir to rely on a North Korean missile or an Iranian drone. Putin cannot afford to lose this war; the stakes are too high for both him and his country. He will push further, perhaps even deeper into the conflict. A strong man capable of shaking the world, but one who now finds himself without a clear solution.
Kim Jong Un is a strong leader. He tends to his missile and nuclear arsenal as a good father would tend to his children. In his country, no one dares to raise a finger in objection, nor are any ambiguous questions asked. The Ukrainian crisis has provided him with an intriguing opportunity; his missiles and ammunition help shield the Russian army from shortages and scarcity. His position within the Russian-Chinese axis is secure, and no force dares to challenge him.
Yet, despite his strength, he has no solution to the problems of poverty, unemployment, and education in his country. While North Korea remains vigilant, its hand on the trigger, South Korea continues to advance in the race for technological and economic development, improving the standard of living for its people. Israel is a heavily armed state, equipped with a nuclear arsenal and a formidable military machine that leverages technological advancements to enhance its lethal capabilities. Benjamin Netanyahu is a dangerous and skilled strategist who adeptly exploits America’s vulnerabilities when it comes to Israel’s security. In response to the “Hamas flood,” Netanyahu has inflicted a new catastrophe on the Palestinians, leaving Gaza awash in blood and destruction. He has broadened the scope of targeted assassinations and launched major strikes in Beirut and Tehran, pushing the region to the brink of a devastating regional war, dragging America along with him. Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of Netanyahu’s policy is his relentless effort to extinguish the idea of a Palestinian state, the only viable path to resolving this chronic conflict in the Middle East. While Israel is a powerful nation, the current government’s approach is shortsighted, laying the groundwork for even more catastrophic wars.Netanyahu is undeniably strong, but like many strong leaders, he has no real solution.
Hamas is a Palestinian faction deeply rooted in Gaza. Its confrontations with Israel are not surprising given the ongoing injustices against the Palestinians and Netanyahu’s refusal to open any avenues for resolution.
Yehya al-Sinwar, a strong leader of Hamas, delivered an unprecedented blow to the Israeli state. But does Sinwar have a vision for moving beyond the current crisis, aside from waiting for the Biden administration to broker a truce that could mitigate the risk of a regional explosion? What will happen the day after in Gaza, and where does Hamas stand? What about its relationship with the Palestinian Authority and its president? While Sinwar is undoubtedly strong, he lacks a clear solution and seems unprepared to embrace any potential proposals that may arise after a ceasefire.
Iran is a significant player in the region. From the day after the revolution’s victory, it recognized the importance of the Palestinian issue and invested in it without hesitation. The current crisis has demonstrated that Iran has the capability to strike Israel from multiple fronts.
Netanyahu has pushed the situation to its limits. He ordered the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran itself, attempting to provoke Iran into the direct confrontation it has long sought to avoid. Netanyahu understands that if such a confrontation occurs, America cannot remain on the sidelines. He aims to frame the Gaza issue as part of a broader conflict with Iran, encompassing its regional and nuclear ambitions.
Iran holds cards that significantly impact the stability of the region, with its influence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen being crucial. However, Iran lacks a solution to the broader conflict and has no clear strategy for improving conditions in the territories it influences.
Russia is deeply entangled in the Ukrainian conflict and may find itself forced to escalate or even threaten a nuclear strike to subdue the country. Meanwhile, China shows little interest in taking a leading role in the tumultuous Middle East. As a result, the region is left to await truce negotiations and the efforts of Secretary Blinken, especially as Kamala Harris might benefit from the Biden administration’s success in preventing a descent into chaos.

He Still Thought He Could Win: Inside Biden’s Decision to Drop Out
Michael D. Shear, Katie Rogers and Adam Entous/The New York Times/August 19/2024
Confined to a spare bedroom in his vacation home and fighting off bouts of coughing from Covid, President Biden was exhausted when he turned in for the night on Saturday, July 20. Whether he slept soundly or fitfully or not at all, people close to him said he took the long hours by himself to mull over the historic decision he was about to make.
He had just been through a brutal two days in Rehoboth Beach, Del., as he huddled with his wife, Jill Biden, and his closest aides, who rotated from a screened-in porch to a sitting area off the dining room.
Steve Ricchetti, the president’s eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, and Mike Donilon, his chief strategist, had shared internal polling with the president that Saturday that mirrored what Americans had been seeing for weeks: Mr. Biden was falling behind, nationally and in key battleground states.
There was still a path to victory, they advised him, but the fight would be ugly. The president would be pitted against his donors, half of his party in Congress and Democratic voters who had concluded that he was too old to win.
For more than three weeks, Biden had insisted he would stay in the race. Only the “Lord Almighty,” he said, could get him to drop out.
But by that Saturday evening, something had shifted.
It was not just about the polls, people close to Biden say. Despite everything, Biden believed he could still claim the Democratic nomination and beat former President Donald J. Trump. Aides say that he still believes that.
What began to change the president’s mind, people familiar with his thinking say, was the realization that if he stayed in the race, he was in for a lonely battle that would rip apart the Democratic Party, the cause he had served nearly his entire life. Would a man who views himself as the ultimate consensus builder in Washington want to wage an intraparty war that would run counter to the fabric of who he is?
That day, Biden asked a key question.
“If we were going to do it,” Biden asked his two advisers, “what would we say?”
A statement was drafted, known only to four other people: the first lady and her closest aide, Anthony Bernal; the president’s son Hunter; and Annie Tomasini, the gatekeeper at the White House and the president’s deputy chief of staff.
But first, he wanted a few hours to think. At 9 p.m. that evening, the president excused himself. It was time to call it a night.
To many outsiders, it seemed almost inevitable that Biden would have to quit the race.
For weeks, polls had shown large majorities of voters desperate for a new choice. Day after day, more Democratic lawmakers publicly called for him to step aside, saying he could not win. Donors canceled fund-raisers and stopped giving money. Hollywood celebrities and liberal TV pundits revoked their endorsements.
Yet those inside the small circle of family members and advisers who were with the president at the very end insist that the story of how Biden went from defiance to acquiescence was not about convincing him that he was destined to lose. That never happened, according to people close enough to Biden to know his thinking, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the president’s decision-making in the final hours.
There was no meeting of the Biden family, as there had been in prior years when Biden had to make big political decisions. Ever since the debate with Trump in Atlanta three weeks earlier raised serious questions about the president’s fitness, his children and grandchildren had said they were behind him no matter what he decided to do next. The circle around Biden in the final days had shrunk to its smallest circumference: just his wife and his closest aides. Hunter Biden, who lives in Los Angeles, called in regularly.
People close to the president said that no one hid the grim realities from him, but that he never stopped believing that he would have been the party’s nominee had he stayed in the race and that he could have beaten Trump. Just a day before he drafted his letter in Rehoboth Beach, Biden received a call from Ron Klain, the president’s first chief of staff, who urged him to stay in the race.
“That’s my intention,” Biden told Mr. Klain on Friday evening.
On Saturday morning, the first lady gathered in the small sitting area off the dining room with Bernal and Tomasini. Dr. Biden had been clear with her husband for days: This is your decision. You need to make a call on your own, but you need to tell us where your heart is, what you are thinking.
Around 4 p.m., Donilon joined Ricchetti at the beach house. Both men had been at the president’s side since the debate, funneling real-time information about the calls for him to step down.
The three men moved to the screened-in porch at the back of the 7,000-square-foot home, close to where the waves crashed onto the beach. Hunter Biden dialed in on speakerphone.
The president’s cat, Willow, was slinking around underfoot.
Donilon and Ricchetti had been around politics a long time and they understood what it meant to have a pathway to victory. There was one, they told the president. The polls were going south, it was true, but by margins that they believed could be made up.
The delegates he won during the primaries were already pledged to him, Ricchetti and Donilon said. It would be almost impossible for someone else to take them away from him if he refused to drop out of the race.
But he was politically isolated, they said.
Too many of his allies wanted him out, and it was only going to get worse.
The president, by this point, was weary. In the weeks since the debate, he had been trying to flip the narrative back to the dangers Trump posed. But nothing seemed to work, even as he waged a war of survival against what he viewed as an unfair campaign to oust him from his rightful spot at the top of the ticket.
Still coughing and hoarse from Covid, Biden was growing more receptive to the calls from his allies that he step aside — though he fundamentally disagreed with their reasoning.