English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 13/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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15 آذار/2023

Bible Quotations For today
Take the first fish that comes up; and when you open its mouth, you will find a coin; take that and give it to them for you and me
 Saint Matthew 17/24-27/:”When they reached Capernaum, the collectors of the temple tax came to Peter and said, ‘Does your teacher not pay the temple tax?’He said, ‘Yes, he does.’ And when he came home, Jesus spoke of it first, asking, ‘What do you think, Simon? From whom do kings of the earth take toll or tribute? From their children or from others?’ When Peter said, ‘From others’, Jesus said to him, ‘Then the children are free. However, so that we do not give offence to them, go to the lake and cast a hook; take the first fish that comes up; and when you open its mouth, you will find a coin; take that and give it to them for you and me.’”.


Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 12-13/2023
Iran: Replacing Khomeini with Clinton/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 12/2023
The Post-American Regional Order/Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 12/2023
Chinese Embrace Brazil as "Global Strategic Partner" as Brazilian President Visits China/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute./May 12, 2023
On the ballot in Turkey: trust and the democratic spirit/Alexandra de Cramer/The Arab Weekly/May 12/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 12-13/2023
‘I want to live in peace like the rest of the world’s children’: Palestinian teen’s plea to Pope Francis
Israel kills senior Gaza commanders as Egypt tries to mediate conflict/Five senior Islamic Jihad figures killed since Tuesday.
Fierce Gaza-Israel fighting renews as truce hopes fade
Jerusalem in Islamic Jihad crosshairs as Gaza fighting continues
Palestinian reaction in West Bank to Israeli attacks on Gaza ‘below expectations’
Israel is ‘colonial power’ violating international law: UN special rapporteur
New UK Special Representative to Syria appointed
UN must keep moving quake aid to Syria after deadline: Amnesty
UN envoy: Humanitarian deal between warring sides first step toward ceasefire in Sudan
Sudanese factions fight on after failing to agree on truce
Disinformation adds dark note to pivotal Turkish election
Erdogan rival accuses Russia of ‘deep fake’ campaign ahead of Sunday vote
Iranian Dissident Put Under Police Protection in UKuring an interview with The Associated Press/Friday, Sept. 23, 2022
Iran Frees Two French Citizens, Says Macron
Lenderking: Iran Still Smuggling Weapons, Narcotics to Yemen
German-Iranian Charged with Arson Attempt Near Synagogue
Russia Acknowledges Retreat North of Bakhmut; Mercenary Boss Calls It a ‘Rout’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 12-13/2023
French diplomat: MBS told Macron 'yes for Franjieh'
Lebanon’s Politicians Intensify Meetings over Presidential Crisis
Is Suleiman Frangieh still in Lebanon's presidential race?
Frangieh's presidential hopes hang in the balance
Bukhari says 'observations' on Franjieh clarified, urges president 'this month'
KSA stance 'unchanged' after Yarze talks, Paris says 'no veto' on anyone
Yarze talks: Ordinary meeting or major shift?
Report: Bassil backpedals on Azour after opposition endorses him
Geagea to avoid 'provoking' Hezbollah, opposition nominee to emerge soon
Judge Aoun accuses Lebanon and Gulf Bank of money laundering
Mawlawi after meeting with Bukhari: Our relationship with Saudi Arabia will not be severed
From freedom to restrictions: Lawyers' battle for freedom of expression
Cash-strapped Lebanese soldiers moonlight as mechanics, waiters
Concern as Beirut Civil Defense chief detained by Syrian intelligence
Protests at Palestinian refugee camps in support of Gaza
AFC Asian Cup 2023 groups revealed: Lebanon placed in Group 1
Lebanon's Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Production Earns International Acclaim "Bustan El Zeitoun" Bestowed with 3 Global Awards, Showcasing Unparalleled...
Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
Sayyed Nasrallah Says Hezbollah Won’t Hesitate to Act in Support of Gaza: “We’ll See”

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 12-13/2023
French diplomat: MBS told Macron 'yes for Franjieh'
Naharnet/May 12/2023
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said yes to French President Emmanuel Macron for Suleiman Franjieh, the French daily Le Monde quoted a French diplomat as saying. The newspaper said that the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement has increased the presidential chances of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's personal friend. Macron chose Franjieh after the Paris meeting to break the Lebanese presidential impasse in a settlement under which Franjieh would be elected as president in return for the appointment as premier of ex-ambassador to the U.N. and former International Court of Justice judge Nawaf Salam. The French officially say they do not support a specific candidate, and KSA says it doesn't want to interfere in a Lebanese affair and want the Lebanese to choose their leader by themselves. On Thursday, Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari met Franjieh at his residence in Yarze. Conflicting media reports then emerged, some considering the meeting as an ordinary meeting and others considering it a major Saudi shift from veto to dialogue.

Lebanon’s Politicians Intensify Meetings over Presidential Crisis
Beirut: Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/12 May 2023
Lebanon’s political scene is witnessing extensive political contacts and meetings over the presidential vacuum, especially among the parties opposing the election of the head of Marada Movement, Sleiman Franjieh. On Thursday, Franjieh - whose candidacy is backed by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement - visited Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Bukhari. While no statement was issued following the meeting, the head of Marada tweeted: “We thank his Excellency, the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, for the invitation. The meeting was cordial and excellent.” Bukhari later met with a delegation from the National Moderation Bloc. Meanwhile, the head of the Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, met on Thursday with MP Wael Bou Faour, member of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and the Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc. Gemayel stressed that extensive contacts were underway to reach a breakthrough in the presidential crisis. Parliamentary sources in the opposition told Asharq Al-Awsat that three names were under discussion. They include Army Commander General Joseph Aoun and former ministers Ziad Baroud and Jihad Azour. While the sources expressed optimism about the possibility of reaching an agreement soon, they pointed to the opposition’s caution against a possible parliamentary confrontation if the other side insisted on Franjieh, saying that the results could turn in his favor in the election session if quorum is secured.
Democratic Gathering MP Hadi Abul-Hassan stressed the need to agree on a candidate that would gain the support of all sides. He explained that Franjieh’s supporters should “take a step back” and agree on a consensual president, noting that no side has so far secured the parliamentary quorum of 86 deputies to elect a president.

Is Suleiman Frangieh still in Lebanon's presidential race?

Nada Maucourant Atallah/The National/May 12/2023
French diplomat says the Hezbollah-backed candidate is still deemed a viable option by Paris
A French diplomat has told The National that Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Christian Marada party and the Hezbollah-backed candidate, is still considered an option for Lebanon's presidency by Paris.
Recent reports suggested that France had withdrawn its support for Mr Frangieh. But the source said: “Nothing has changed. It is still deemed the most pragmatic option in the current context, given the absence of a more viable solution.” Paris has long endorsed a formula involving Mr Frangieh serving as the head of state, balanced by someone from the opposing camp as prime minister. One potential candidate for the prime ministerial role often mentioned in this context is diplomat Nawaf Salam. “We maintain a non-veto stance on any candidate, and should a stronger option emerge, we are open to re-evaluating our choice”, said the diplomat. The French government views this as the sole option to overcome a political impasse, as Lebanon finds itself in its eighth month without a president since the conclusion of former president Michel Aoun's term on October 31. Mr Frangieh visited Paris in April in response to an invitation from Patrick Durel, adviser to the Elysee on Middle Eastern and North African affairs. According to the French diplomat, a viable candidate for the Lebanese presidency should support the crucial set of reforms requested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Lebanon has since 2020 been negotiating to secure an aid package from the IMF to alleviate the country's severe economic crisis. In a deeply polarised Lebanon, Frangieh is seen as the candidate of Hezbollah — the Iran-backed party opposing those traditionally more aligned with the Saudis. But recent developments indicate potential change in Saudi Arabia' stance. On Thursday, Mr Frangieh met Saudi ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari, who the presidential front-runner described as “cordial and excellent”. Last week, Mr Bukhari said that his country viewed the presidential election as an internal matter and emphasised that the kingdom would not exercise a “veto” on any candidate. The source added that Mr Frangieh was not, strictly speaking, France's designated candidate for the presidency. “Lebanon holds sovereignty over who they elect, our involvement to support the most realistic option is a way to speed up the process, as, despite the urgency of the situation, Lebanon has faded away from the international agenda,” said the source.
French Saudi talks
“Following extensive talks between France and Saudi Arabia, the kingdom has now made it clear that it does not object to Mr Frangieh's election,” said political scientist Karim Emile Bitar. “While they might not be very enthusiastic, France's endorsement of this formula would not have happened without Saudi Arabia in the loop.” He added that “there is no more reason for the kingdom to object to Mr Frangieh in Lebanon”, in light of recent geopolitical developments including Syria's return to the Arab League and the Saudi-Iranian detente. But Mr Frangieh is still far from being a consensual figure within the Lebanese political landscape. On Wednesday, Sami Gemayel, the leader of the Christian Party Kataeb, said he refused any Hezbollah-backed candidate, claiming that the opposition “first want to prevent Hezbollah's takeover of the presidency and then suggest a name”.“If Hezbollah continues to impose its decisions on the Lebanese, that could lead to civil war,” he added. “We can't accept being crushed.”Against this backdrop, opponents of Mr Frangieh have been critical of the French position. “It is perceived as cynical. Some people pointed out that economic interests could be at stake, while the French argue that the main concern is the stability in Lebanon,” Mr Bitar said. “Realpolitik governs the dynamics at play, but it is also understandable as the situation could potentially deteriorate further with a presidential vacuum.” From the French perspective, “Mr Frangieh is not France's candidate, but the candidate of the strongest political party in Lebanon, and France is trying to mitigate the damage by making sure there is a deal”, he said. The Lebanese parliament remains deeply polarised. Despite convening 11 times, with no 12th vote scheduled, it is still unable to elect a new president. Speaker Nabih Berri has called for a June 15 deadline and said “regional and international climate regarding the presidential elections are encouraging”.

Frangieh's presidential hopes hang in the balance
LBCI/May 12/2023
The path to Baabda Presidential Palace seems uncertain for Frangieh regarding garnering external support and securing the necessary votes.
So far, Frangieh has only gathered 65 votes in his favor.
Frangieh's supporters comprise various factions, including:
- the Development and Liberation Bloc (15 votes)
- Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc (15 votes)
- their independent allies (8 votes)
- Independent National Bloc (4 votes)
- the Armenian parliamentary bloc (3 votes)
This makes a total of 45 votes.
This means that Frangieh needs an additional 20 votes to reach the required 65 votes. The key to achieving this lies in winning over the opposition parties that reject Frangieh's election. The potential factions to target are:
- Strong Republic Bloc: 20 votes
- Strong Lebanon Bloc: 18 votes
- Democratic Gathering Bloc: 8 votes
- Tajadod Bloc: 4 votes
- Change MPs Bloc: 5 votes
- Kataeb Party Bloc: 4 votes
These collectively hold 59 votes.
However, all eyes are currently on the National Moderation Bloc, consisting of six MPs, which was visited by the Saudi ambassador on Thursday. Sources within the bloc confirmed to LBCI that the bloc would not go against the Saudi will. They added that the bloc's stance remains undecided regarding whether they are with Frangieh or against him. However, they have agreed that the bloc's votes should be consolidated in one place and not distributed, according to the same sources. The unavailability of the required 65 votes for Frangieh is one of the reasons why the Speaker of Parliament has not called for a session to elect the president. Even if Frangieh's supporters could secure the quorum of 86 votes for such a session, it is currently unfeasible under the present circumstances. Furthermore, the opposing party has yet to present a consensus candidate, and the divisions within the Parliament remain a key factor. Without internal consensus and external support, the conclusion is clear: The path to Baabda Presidential Palace remains distant for any potential president.

Bukhari says 'observations' on Franjieh clarified, urges president 'this month'

Naharnet/May 12/2023
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari has told the majority-Sunni National Moderation parliamentary bloc that “Saudi Arabia has no veto on anyone nor a veto on Suleiman Franjieh,” a media report said. Asked whether his meeting with Franjieh has “dispelled his country’s concerns,” Bukhari told the bloc, according to al-Liwaa newspaper, that he has “no concerns over Franjieh, but rather some observations that have been clarified.” The Saudi ambassador also stressed the need to “finalize the presidential election as soon as possible, specifically before the end of this month,” al-Liwaa added. Senior Hezbollah sources meanwhile told the daily that the Bukhari-Franjieh meeting was “excellent” and that it was a “positive indication regarding the transformations that the presidential file is witnessing, specifically as to the kingdom’s stance on Franjieh as a certain president for the republic.”
The sources added that the meeting was “part of the preparatory steps for ending the presidential vacuum,” noting that “clearer stances and steps are expected to follow and will help those hesitant over Franjieh’s nomination to change their stance or to at least secure quorum in parliament for his election.”
Shiite Duo sources meanwhile told al-Liwaa that efforts are underway to “secure consensus among the Lebanese blocs opposed to Franjieh over a candidate for confronting him” and that a presidential election session would be held after the Arab Summit that Saudi Arabia will host on May 19.

KSA stance 'unchanged' after Yarze talks, Paris says 'no veto' on anyone
Naharnet/May 12/2023
Thursday’s meeting in Yarze between Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari and Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh “did not change the kingdom’s stance as to what it has declared regarding the Lebanese presidential juncture,” a media report said on Friday. “What Franjieh heard from the ambassador was the same stance that the other parties heard from him: his country does not have any problem with anyone and it does not support or veto anyone,” Annahar newspaper reported. “Accordingly, the Lebanese themselves must choose their president,” the daily quoted Bukhari as telling Franjieh. A senior French diplomat meanwhile told the newspaper that “France has no veto on any presidential candidate in Lebanon,” when asked whether Paris has backed down from a proposal calling for Franjieh’s election as president and Nawaf Salam’s appointment as premier. “Suleiman Franjieh can become president and so can any other figure. Joseph Aoun for example is an excellent army commander and is an upright figure whom we respect. He can also become president and there are others as well, but the problem lies in the political obstacles and gathering a parliamentary majority that would allow any candidate to be elected,” the diplomat said. He added: “What applies to Suleiman Franjieh applies to others. If we look at the Lebanese institutions, we understand that it is not enough for Lebanon for a president to be elected. Any president is required to commit to the implementation of certain matters, such as refraining from using the one-third-plus-one veto power (in Cabinet) and backing the premier in the implementation of reforms.”

Yarze talks: Ordinary meeting or major shift?

Naharnet/May 12/2023
A meeting between Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari and Hezbollah's presidential candidate Suleiman Franjieh, although dubbed by some local media as an ordinary meeting, was considered a "major positive Saudi shift" by a senior political source. The source told al-Joumhouria, in remarks published Friday, that Saudi Arabia has shifted "from veto to dialogue" with Franjieh, and that elections might be held within a month if the positive ambiance persists. "We could reach positive conclusions in the coming weeks," pro-Franjieh sources told a local newspaper, expecting an imminent "semi-settlement". The sources added, in remarks published Friday in al-Akhbar, that Bukhari was very cordial and assured Franjieh that there is no Saudi veto against him. The breakfast in Yarze was coordinated with French and local parties, including Berri who described the situation as "excellent", al-Akhbar said. While some parties still strongly oppose Franjieh and warn of boycotting a session that would elect him, the Sunni MPs and the Progressive Socialist Party still haven't made a clear nomination. "We will not boycott any election session," the Sunni MPs said after they met Bukhari on Thursday, adding that they will endorse any candidate who can maintain good relations with the Arab and Gulf countries. PSP leader Walid Jumblat for his part will announce Monday his presidential approach. "Jumblat will announce that he will not turn towards Franjieh," al-Jadeed reported.

Report: Bassil backpedals on Azour after opposition endorses him
Naharnet/May 12/2023
The opposition has tried to agree with Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on a presidential candidate who would enjoy the broadest support in parliament and who was his candidate in the first place, a media report said on Friday. “It proposed to the FPM leader that ex-minister Jihad Azour be a candidate supported by the entire opposition, but he evaded accepting this proposal in order not to infuriate Hezbollah,” the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported. “Bassil seemed to prefer an agreement with Hezbollah rather than with the opposition,” the daily added.

Geagea to avoid 'provoking' Hezbollah, opposition nominee to emerge soon

Naharnet/May 12/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has reversed his stance on choosing a “confrontational candidate” and has accepted to endorse “a consensual candidate who wouldn’t provoke Hezbollah in particular,” a media report said.
The LF believes that it has offered “a major concession in this regard, because its aim is to present a candidate in the face of Franjieh within a few weeks,” informed sources told al-Akhbar newspaper in remarks published Friday. Moreover, the sources said that imminent results can be expected from the opposition’s deliberations and that a “serious candidate” will emerge soon. The opposition is seeking “an agreement on a paper carrying the platform of the supposed candidate” and there are “names who are ready and appropriate for this role,” the sources added.

Judge Aoun accuses Lebanon and Gulf Bank of money laundering
LBCI/May 12/2023
In a recent development, Lebanon and Gulf Bank has been added to the list of banks accused by Judge Ghada Aoun of money laundering. This accusation comes in response to a directive issued by the Public Prosecutor of Cassation, Ghassan Oueidat, regarding handling public prosecutions with the amended banking secrecy law and the restriction of suspicion of concealing information. This move has once again sparked anger from the Association of Banks, which has accused Judge Aoun of interpreting the law as she sees fit. The Association has also warned of the dangers of continuing this destructive approach towards the banking sector. Furthermore, it believes that changing the alleged criminal description from concealing information to accusing banks of money laundering will increase the risks associated with correspondent banks' relationships. The Association views this approach as deepening the crisis by persistently ruining the country's financial reputation. Moreover, it considers it a violation of principles and laws and a judicial rebellion against the directives of the Public Prosecutor of Cassation. The banking sector in Lebanon has been facing significant challenges in recent years, including economic meltdown and financial crises. Accusations of money laundering further exacerbate the difficulties faced by the banking industry, as it hampers trust and cooperation with correspondent banks.

Mawlawi after meeting with Bukhari: Our relationship with Saudi Arabia will not be severed

LBCI/May 12/2023
Caretaker Interior Minister, Bassam Mawlawi, announced after meeting with the Saudi Ambassador, Walid Bukhari, at his residence in Yarze, "we were pleased to meet Ambassador Bukhari, the ambassador of the Kingdom that supports and encourages the swift election of a President for the Republic." "Our relationship with Saudi Arabia has not been and will not be severed, and we are fulfilling our complete duties for the interest of the Lebanese people," he added.

From freedom to restrictions: Lawyers' battle for freedom of expression

LBCI/May 12/2023
No speeches in the media for any lawyer, except with permission from their syndicate. This is the outcome of the legal battle fought by lawyers to protect their freedom of expression. However, the final word came from the Civil Appeals Court, which handles union cases. It issued its decision on the appeal regarding the media appearances of lawyers and affirmed the validity of the amendments made by the Beirut Bar Association. But what are these amendments? And why did they cause such a stir? Before March 3rd, obtaining permission for media appearances by lawyers was limited to discussing pending cases before the judiciary. It was also advisable for lawyers to obtain permission from the syndicate to participate in any seminar with a legal consultancy character. After March 3rd, it became mandatory for any lawyer to obtain prior authorization allowing them to appear in the media. These amendments were met with rejection and appeal by the lawyers before the Appeals Court. Consequently, lawyer Nizar Saghiyeh was summoned to appear before the syndicate council. Beirut Bar Association President Nader Kaspar responded during a press conference to what he called baseless accusations against the syndicate, confirming that the syndicate's decision came to regulate the chaos occurring in the media appearances of lawyers and that some individuals exploit these appearances for self-promotion. At a time when freedoms are advancing worldwide, they are receding in Beirut through judicial rulings.

Cash-strapped Lebanese soldiers moonlight as mechanics, waiters
Agence France Presse/May 12/2023
A crushing economic crisis in Lebanon has impelled members of the security forces to take on side hustles to get by, raising concerns about security in the eastern Mediterranean country. Soldiers in Lebanon have seen their salaries diminish to around an eighth of their value in dollar terms since the country's economy began tanking in late 2019. To make ends meet, 28-year-old soldier Samer says he works three days a week with his uncle at a garage in the northern port city of Tripoli. "Almost all of my army friends have a second job," he said, standing near an open car bonnet, his hands dirty with grease and oil. In regular times, moonlighting while serving in the military can be punishable by imprisonment. But now "the army turns a blind eye because if not, everybody would quit," said Samer, whose name has been changed as he is not allowed to talk to the media. The devastating economic crisis -- which the World Bank says is one of the planet's worst in modern times -- has plunged more than 80 percent of the Lebanese population into poverty. On average, a soldier used to earn about $800 a month before the crisis, but the value of the Lebanese currency, the pound, has since crashed and salaries are now worth around just $100. Working at the garage, Samer says he earns double what he does as a soldier -- but still struggles to survive, with nappies and milk to buy for his young son. Since June last year, Qatar and the United States have announced millions to help prop up security force salaries -- particularly for the army, seen as a key pillar of Lebanon's stability.
'Penniless' -
"Even with the $100 extra from the Qataris every 45 days, it's still not enough," Samer told AFP. "At the end of the month, I'm penniless." Around 80,000 Lebanese serve in the army, while almost 25,000 police serve in Lebanon's Internal Security Forces (ISF), according to official sources.
The army declined to respond to an AFP request for comment on the issue of soldiers taking up second jobs. Ahmad, 29, chose to desert after 10 years of service, preferring instead to work full time as a waiter. "I realized that staying was hopeless," he told AFP, also using a pseudonym. He quit early last year and said others from his barracks had also left the army. "I was raised to love the uniform. I still do, but we are suffocating," he said. Lebanon's cash-strapped military struggles to even maintain its own equipment. After the economic meltdown began, the army cut down on meat in meals for on-duty soldiers, while in 2021 it introduced helicopter joyrides for tourists in a bid to boost its coffers.
Security concerns -
Ahmad said he worried about being arrested for deserting. "But at least I earn seven times the amount from before -- and have enough to eat." Dina Arakji from Control Risks consultancy said morale in the security forces "has decreased as a result of the crisis." Unofficially allowing soldiers to work other jobs has jeopardized "the forces' ability to effectively cover and respond to the country's domestic security needs," she told AFP. Police who serve in Lebanon's ISF say their financial woes are even tougher. "Our situation is pitiful," Elie, a 37-year-old police officer, told AFP at a protest demanding pension increases for armed forces members in March. The father of three said his salary was worth around $50 and that he worked with his father, a farmer, to help feed his family. "The ISF turns a blind eye to those moonlighting as there are no other solutions," a security official told AFP. The official, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to talk to the media, said health budgets for the armed forces had also collapsed. The army provides its own hospital for its forces, but the ISF has no such facilities. "The worst thing is that if you are injured on the job, you have to pay your own hospital bills," police officer Elie said.

Concern as Beirut Civil Defense chief detained by Syrian intelligence
Najia Houssari/Arab News/May 12, 2023
BEIRUT: Syrian intelligence on Friday detained Beirut’s Civil Defense chief for four hours after he crossed overland into the country en route to Egypt.
Walid Hashash, 57, director-general of the Civil Defense in the Lebanese capital, was detained and interrogated by the Palestine Branch of Syria’s intelligence service.It is the first time such an incident has taken place since the resumption of Lebanese movement into Syria at the end of 2021. In March 2020, the Syrian regime prevented Lebanese from entering Syria as a precautionary measure against COVID-19. Youssef Mallah, one of the most prominent volunteers in the Civil Defense in Beirut, told Arab News that Hashash had set out on a motorcycle trip to Egypt via Jordan, passing through Syria. He was with a group of 20 friends. He had also obtained 15 days of holiday leave for the trip, said Mallah, who added that Hashash was arrested when the group crossed a Syrian security checkpoint. The circumstances of the arrest are unknown, but it was later suggested that it was a case of misidentification, Mallah said.
One of Hashash’s relatives, who was part of the group, informed concerned parties in Lebanon of the incident. Reports on social media said that official contact took place with Syrian authorities to secure the release of Hashash, who was freed hours after his arrest and returned to Beirut. Hashash’s friends said that the Beirut Civil Defense chief has no political or partisan affiliations.The Hashash family spent hours fearfully waiting for his return amid fears that he may have been mistreated while under interrogation. Arrests and detentions by the Palestine Branch have come under scrutiny, with the unit having links to a series of disappearances in Syrian territory since the 1980s. Lebanese Civil Defense Director General Brig. Gen. Raymond Khattar and Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi handled the communication to secure Hashash’s release. Hashash told Arab News after his return to Beirut that he is in good condition and was treated with respect by the Syrian authorities.
The head of the Sanad Party, MP Ashraf Rifi, said: “Hashash is a sportsman and has a hobby of riding motorcycles and often makes trips with the group that was accompanying him to Egypt.” The incident comes amid growing calls for the restoration of Lebanese relations with Syria, said the MP.
“We have no details about the reasons for Hashash’s arrest. Most of the information we have indicates that he has nothing to do with politics.”
Rifi added that the Syrian regime was “still adopting the same old methods” despite the positive atmosphere prevailing in the region.
Lebanon voted to suspend Syria from the Arab League in 2011, despite Hezbollah and its allies rejecting the move. However, as Syrian ties with countries in the region improve, Beirut has yet to take any official action to resume relations with Damascus, except for security coordination, which had been uninterrupted by the civil war. The Amal Movement, Hezbollah’s ally, said several days ago that the resumption of Syrian membership in the Arab League is an opportunity to straighten Lebanese-Syrian relations through communication, and overcome “imaginary obstacles” to resolve several issues, most prominently the issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari continued a political tour of the country, meeting the interior minister on Friday. The minister described Bukhari’s mediation efforts as a catalyst for speeding up the election of a new Lebanese president. Bukhari also met MPs of the Tajaddod bloc, among whose members is the opposition presidential candidate MP Michel Moawad. The meeting came a day after Bukhari met Suleiman Frangieh — Hezbollah’s candidate and a close friend of Syria. After the meeting, Moawad said that Saudi Arabia’s position had become clear. “It believes that the presidential election is a Lebanese sovereign decision and that the Lebanese must choose any path they want and therefore bear responsibility for their choice.”The MP added: “Saudi Arabia seeks to set rules for this region on the basis of the sovereignty of states, and all the developments in the region solidify our insistence that Lebanon should not be outside this momentum, growth and stability.”Moawad said that his bloc will confront “with all our strength, any candidate imposed by the opposition project that brought us to our current situation; the battle is between two projects, not between two people.”

Protests at Palestinian refugee camps in support of Gaza

Agence France Presse/Associated Press/May 12/2023
In Lebanon, rallies were held Friday in solidarity with Gaza in multiple refugee camps hosting Palestinians. Israel and Gaza militants traded heavy fire Friday that has been met with international calls for de-escalation. Violence broke out Tuesday when Israel killed three top members of the Islamic Jihad militant group, while subsequent strikes have killed two other senior figures. "Resisters, strike Tel Aviv," protesters chanted in Saida, home to the country's largest refugee camp. This week's escalation is the worst since August, when 49 Gazans were killed in three days of fighting between Islamic Jihad and Israel.
At least 19 of those fatalities were children, according to the United Nations, while rocket fire wounded three people in Israel. That conflict followed multiple wars fought between Israel and Hamas since the group took control of Gaza in 2007. An Israeli blockade imposed since then has made it impossible for the vast majority of 2.3 million residents to leave Gaza, where poverty and unemployment are rife. Protesters also gathered at the Burj al-Barajneh Palestinian refugee camp, south of Beirut, after Friday prayers. They shouted slogans against Israel and in support of people in the Gaza Strip.

AFC Asian Cup 2023 groups revealed: Lebanon placed in Group 1
LBCI/May 12/2023
On Thursday, the draw for the 2023 AFC Asian Cup, which will be held in Qatar from January 12 to February 10, took place. The teams were divided into six groups, and Lebanon was placed in Group 1, considered a challenging group. Lebanon will face Tajikistan, China, and the host country Qatar, which previously hosted the FIFA World Cup and lost in the group stage. Group 2 includes Australia, the 2015 AFC Asian Cup champions, competing against India, Syria, and Uzbekistan. The three-time title holders Iran found themselves in Group 3 alongside Hong Kong, Palestine, and the United Arab Emirates. Japan, the highest-ranked team in Asia, will face Indonesia, Iraq, and Vietnam in Group 4. Group 5, the penultimate group, consists of Malaysia, Bahrain, Jordan, and South Korea. Saudi Arabia, known for its impressive performance in the World Cup and for conquering champions Argentina, is in the relatively easier Group 6, alongside Thailand, Kyrgyzstan, and Oman. We hope the Qatari grounds will bring good fortune to our national team, and we wish the Lebanese national football team the best of luck.

Lebanon's Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Production Earns International Acclaim "Bustan El Zeitoun" Bestowed with 3 Global Awards, Showcasing Unparalleled...
NNA/May 12/2023
Lebanon's Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Production Earns International Acclaim
"Bustan El Zeitoun" Bestowed with 3 Global Awards, Showcasing Unparalleled Quality and Leadership
Once again, 2023 witnessed Lebanon standing proudly among the world's top producers of extra-virgin olive oil, with "Bustan El Zeitoun" garnering three international awards and solidifying its position among the top 100 players in the industry.
Nestled in Abra - Saida, a small town of Southern Lebanon, "Bustan El Zeitoun" breathes new life into a national industry that had long been in disarray. Drawing inspiration from the rich history, culture, and heritage of his hometown, Abra - Saida in Southern Lebanon, where olive trees have been preserved for generations, founder of “Bustan El Zeitoun”, Walid Mushantaf combined his will and passion to produce internationally award-winning extra virgin olive oil. What seemed like a distant fiction became reality through his commitment, knowledge, and respect for the environment and the land.
The latest recognitions, which are nothing short of outstanding, include three gold medals respectively won at the renowned "NYIOOC" World Olive Oil Quality Competition 2023 held in New York, USA; the esteemed "EVOOLEUM" competition 2023 in Cordoba, Spain, which showcases the finest 100 extra-virgin olive oils in the world; and the prestigious "Olive Japan International Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Competition" 2023 in Tokyo. This success story reasserts Lebanon's flagship position in a highly competitive industry and establishes the small country as a prominent player and force to be reckoned with on the global stage of exceptional extra-virgin olive oil production.
Spanning 500,000 square meters, their orchard boasts twelve Italian varieties alongside local cultivars. For more than a decade, "Bustan El Zeitoun" has adopted and embraced modern, sustainable, and eco-friendly farming techniques, thus combining best-in-class practices with global expertise to ensure the best care is given to their planted olive trees. These trees are specifically chosen, taking into consideration the soil and weather conditions of Lebanon in order to preserve the unique and harmonious taste and flavor that characterizes Lebanese olives and olive oil.
The selection process for the three competitions is carried out by a panel of distinguished worldwide experts who are internationally recognized for their expertise in olive oil tasting. Beyond the selection itself, the evaluation stage is a key component of the rigorous process as it follows extremely precise criteria and standards. These experts meticulously evaluate the olive oil samples, subjecting them to rigorous physical, chemical, and sensory tests to assess their quality, acidity level, flavor, taste, and the distinctiveness of their bouquet of flavors and aromas.
At "Bustan El Zeitoun", quality takes precedence over quantity. As such, production follows a thorough and meticulous management process. Harvesting begins during the green phase of the olives, using early morning hand-picked techniques to preserve quality and optimize productivity. Within a mere four hours after the harvest, the olives are methodically cleaned and sorted, with each cultivar being processed separately at the on-site olive oil mill. This critical stage guarantees the freshness, health benefits, and nutritional properties of the olives are preserved all the while preventing oxidation and sustaining low acidity levels. Throughout the production process of their extra-virgin olive oil, "Bustan El Zeitoun" employs state-of-the-art equipment, procured in full compliance with international food safety and quality standards. The oil then undergoes extensive laboratory and sensory testing before filtration and storage, to ensure compliance with international quality and food safety norms. Thus far, it is passion, respect for the land, and the adoption of good Agricultural practices that have paved the way of "Bustan El Zeitoun" towards international recognition, allowing it to amass over 20 prestigious awards in various countries including the United States, Italy, Japan, Greece, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, the United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon. Among these accolades, the NYIOOC award particularly stands out, as it is the fourth time since 2018 that "Bustan El Zeitoun" receives this esteemed honor. The EVOOLEUM competition is also notable, as it is known as a definitive guide to the top 100 extra-virgin olive oil worldwide, and has awarded "Bustan El Zeitoun" a score of 91/1000. This will result in the Lebanese brand being included in the EVOOLEUM 2024 guide published by Spain’s Mercacei magazine, which specializes in olive tree farming and the olive oil industry at global scale. Additionally, the Gold Medal awarded to “Bustan El Zeitoun" at the Olive Japan International Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Competition 2023 speaks volumes as this competition is internationally recognized as one of the most important events in the olive oil industry.
"Since we embarked on this journey in 2008, we have accumulated invaluable experience and expertise in producing a truly unique extra-virgin olive oil," says Walid Mushantaf, founder of "Bustan El Zeitoun". "We have hugely benefited from the support of dedicated local and international consultants and product specialists. Through such projects and acknowledgements, Lebanese entrepreneurs showcase their ability to demonstrate excellence in the food industry, thus reenforcing the sector's capacity to compete on the global map." Mushantaf adds, "Olive and olive oil production originated from Lebanon and the Eastern Mediterranean with the Phoenicians, who played a significant role in introducing it to the rest of the world. For me, the olive tree, with its sanctity, firmness, resilience, and generosity, symbolizes perseverance, challenge, and a strong attachment to the land."
About "Bustan El Zeitoun": The story of "Bustan El Zeitoun" dates back to 2008 when its founder, Walid Mushantaf, embarked on a journey to turn his dream into reality. Born and raised in Abra, Mushantaf spent 15 years in the Gulf before returning to Lebanon in 2008, a time of rapid urbanization in the country’s history. He chose to align himself with nature, planting 500 hectares of olive trees alongside other fruit-bearing trees. By doing so, Mushantaf crystalized his strong belief in the reciprocity that stems from giving back to Mother Nature.
"When you give to mother nature, it honors you back." His exceptional production of the finest types of internationally recognized extra-virgin olive oil serves as a testament to the truth of this belief.
Today, "Bustan El Zeitoun" is a well-established, highly acclaimed Lebanese brand. Its commitment to preserving an ancestral tradition, by weaving the threads of Lebanese heritage with cutting-edge modern techniques, sets it apart from the competition and results in its unique signature – one that is recognized by internationally acclaimed judges.

Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
NNA/May 12/2023
Oil prices in Lebanon have dropped on Friday. Consequently, the new prices are as follows:
95 octanes: LBP 1,635,000
98 octanes: LBP 1,677,000
Diesel: LBP 1,399,000
Gas: LBP 913,000

Sayyed Nasrallah Says Hezbollah Won’t Hesitate to Act in Support of Gaza: “We’ll See”
Marwa Haidar/Al-Manar English Website/May 12, 2023
Revealing that Hezbollah has been in constant contact with Palestinian resistance in Gaza, Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah affirmed that the Lebanese resistance party “won’t hesitate to take actions as duty forces some moves.” The Hezbollah leader concluded this statement by: “We’ll see,” in a clear threat to the Zionist entity and its premier Benjamin Netanyahu who has been in the last few days boasting of the brutal Israeli aggression on Gaza. Sayyed Nasrallah remarks were during a ceremony marking the seventh martyrdom anniversary of Hezbollah senior commander Mustafa Badreddine – known with his nom du guerre “Sayyed Zulfiqar”. His eminence hailed the Palestinian resistance for heroically confronting the Israeli aggression on Gaza, today on its fourth day. In this context he stressed that the united stance of the resistance factions foiled the goals of the Israeli occupation which has been trying to single out the Islamic Jihad and to sow discord between resistance groups in Gaza. Sayyed Nasrallah, meanwhile, described the Arab League (AL) invitation to Syria as an important step, calling on Lebanese government to restore ties with the Arab country. On the local affairs, the Hezbollah S.G. said there have been positive developments in the issue of Lebanese presidential elections, but stressed that until a new president is elected the caretaker government must continue to assume its responsibilities.
“Sayyed Zulfiqar”
Talking about the occasion, Sayyed Nasrallah hailed “Sayyed Zulfiqar” as an insightful commander who had deep knowledge and strategic mind. “Sayyed Zulfiar attained all honorable medals a resistance fighter could get. First, he obtained the medal of a fighter who was present in battlefields. Sayyed Zulfiqar also obtained the medal of an injured fighter and the medal of a prisoner. He took then the medal of a commander who secured achievements and victories. Finally, Sayyed Zulfiqar came by the most sublime medal, martyrdom.”“Martyr Sayyed Zulfiqar and his companions, by their insight and mindful performance, managed to secure great achievements,” Sayyed Nasrallah addressed the ceremony in Beirut’s southern suburb (Dahiyeh). “Sayyed Zulfiqar, who came up with the slogan of ‘United Banner Till Victory’, manifests, along with great martyr Hajj Qassem Suleimani, unity among powers in the Axis of Resistance,” the Hezbollah leader said, referring to the former commander of the Quds Force, of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who was martyred in a US strike near Baghdad airport in January 2020.
Full Support for Gaza
On the brutal Israeli aggression on Gaza, Sayyed Nasrallah said all know that ‘Israel’ is the one who initiated the attack by assassinating three senior Islamic Jihad commanders last Tuesday (May 9). He lashed out at Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, saying his motives behind the offensive were to restore the Israeli deterrence and to find a way out of the internal impasse the Zionist entity have been observing for months. “Netanyahu, through the aggression, seeks to restore the Israeli deterrence and to handle the split of the Israeli governmental coalition as well as to bolster his popularity.”
Sayyed Nasrallah quotes
Image prepared by Al-Manar that displays quotes by Sayyed Nasrallah
Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the Islamic Jihad is in powerful position, voicing confidence that the resistance group is capable to rehabilitate its organizational structure despite the assassinations that targeted its senior commanders. In this context, his eminence praised the Gaza-based group’s calm performance in the battle, stressing that the united stance of the resistance groups foiled the Israeli goals. “The Islamic Jihad acted wisely in a way that confused the Israeli enemy. The resistance stance was united through the Joint Operations Room of the Resistance Factions.” “Netanyahu has failed in his scheme to single out the Islamic Jihad and to sow discord between the Palestinian resistance factions.” Sayyed Nasrallah revealed that Hezbollah leadership has been in contact with Palestinian resistance factions, voicing full readiness to offer all forms of support to Palestine. “We are in constant contact with the Palestinian factions’ commanders. We keep a close eye on the situation and its developments thanks to our brothers. In addition, we offer, within certain limits, feasible assistance.” “But, I must emphasize, when duty forces specific actions or scenarios on us, we won’t hesitate to take an action, God willing. I will stop by this sentence… and we’ll see!”The video* below shows Sayyed Nasrallah addressing the Israeli aggression on Gaza:
Syria Back to the Arab League
Sayyed Nasrallah welcomed an invitation by the Arab League to Syria, saying the move is of high significance. “Syria has neither changed its stance nor its strategy,” his eminence said, stressing: “We recall Sayyed Zulfiqar whenever Syria achieves a political or military victory.”In this context, the Hezbollah leader called on the Lebanese government to follow suit of the Arab countries and restore ties with Syria. “Lebanon is called to restore ties with Syria, what are we waiting for? Restoring ties serves Lebanon’s national interest.”Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that handling the issue of Syrian refugees requires dispatching Lebanese ministerial delegation to Damascus and a national stance that doesn’t yield to foreign pressures in this regard.
Lebanese Presidential Elections
He noted, on the other hand, that are positive developments in the Lebanese presidential elections. The Lebanese resistance leader said that Hezbollah has announced his nominee for the presidential post, stressing that his party has not imposed him on any Lebanese side. Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed the need for the caretaker government to assume its responsibilities as long as no president is elected. His eminence called, in this context, to utilize from the positive regional developments, referring to the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Sayyed Nasrallah concluded his speech by renewing allegiance to martyr “Sayyed Zulfiqar” and other martyrs. “We will follow the suit. We will stick to the resistance path.” *Video subtitled by Areej Fatima Al-Husseini.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 12-13/2023
‘I want to live in peace like the rest of the world’s children’: Palestinian teen’s plea to Pope Francis
Arab News/May 12, 2023
LONDON: Pope Francis received a moving letter from a young Palestinian refugee when Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, visited the pontiff at the Vatican on Thursday. During their meeting, Lazzarini detailed the unprecedented challenges Palestine refugees continue to face, particularly in light of the lack of any prospect of a solution to their plight. “As we approach the 75th anniversary of UNRWA, support for the human rights of Palestine Refugees and the work of UNRWA is more vital than ever to help them achieve a dignified life,” Lazzarini said. “The serious financial crisis that the agency continues to face risks undoing the human development gains of Palestine refugees.” Lazzarini shared with the pope firsthand testimonies gathered from refugees during recent visits to Syria and Lebanon in the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes that hit parts in Syria and Turkiye in February. He also presented Pope Francis with a letter written by a 15-year-old girl called Leen, a UNRWA student parliamentarian who lives in the Dheisheh refugee camp near the occupied West Bank city of Bethlehem. She wrote: “Like other children in the camp, I want to complete my education so I can build a good future for myself and help my family and the people in the camp improve their lives. “As a Palestine refugee, I want to live in peace like the rest of the world’s children. We want our rights, we want to live in freedom, peace and security, and we want to go to school in peace and without fear.” Lazzarini also briefed the pope on the vital work carried out by UNRWA, including education projects in more than 700 schools serving more than half a million young refugees. The education program is the single largest program the agency operates and is, it says, shaped by the values of peace and tolerance. Lazzarini asked the Pope for his help in ensuring that the plight of 5.9 million Palestinian refugees is not forgotten and their right to live in peace and dignity is protected.

Israel kills senior Gaza commanders as Egypt tries to mediate conflict/Five senior Islamic Jihad figures killed since Tuesday.
Nidal al-Mughrabi and Rami Amichay/The Arab Weekly/May 12/2023
Israel killed two more senior Islamic Jihad commanders, pressing an operation that has cost 28 lives in the Gaza Strip including women and children, while Palestinian cross-border rocket salvoes inflicted a first fatality in Israel on Thursday. Signalling no imminent let-up after three days of strikes, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said operations were proceeding at full pace. “Whoever comes to harm us, his blood is forfeit,” he said in a videotaped statement issued during a visit to an air base. As the firing continued, Egypt hosted senior Islamic Jihad official Mohammad al-Hindi in Cairo to try to mediate an end to the flare-up, two faction officials and a foreign diplomat told Reuters. However there was no sign of an immediate breakthrough. “Egypt’s efforts to calm things down and resume the political process have not yet borne fruit,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told reporters in Berlin. The deaths of Ali Ghali, head of Islamic Jihad’s rocket force, and of Ahmed Abu Daqqa, a senior commander of its armed wing, brought to five the number of senior figures from the faction killed since Israel began striking Gaza on Tuesday. Two gunmen from a splinter group died in a separate strike on Thursday. Four women and six children have also been killed. The military said Ghali and Abu Daqqa helped oversee rocket launches towards Israel over recent days as well as in previous fighting with Islamic Jihad, an Iranian-backed group allied with Hamas, which rules the densely-populated coastal territory.
Sirens sent residents to shelters in Israeli towns around Gaza as Iron Dome interceptors shot down some incoming rockets. In Rehovot, a city south of Tel Aviv, a direct hit on a four-storey building killed one person and wounded five, medics said. “Our people must be proud of this blessed response,” Islamic Jihad said in a statement. The death was the first fatality in this round of fighting in Israel, whose Iron Dome and David’s Sling rocket interceptors have had a 96% shoot-down rate, the military says. Israeli strikes hit 158 targets in Gaza as of Thursday morning, the military said. At least 523 rockets were launched, 380 of which crossed into Israel. As the strikes continued, they hit other targets including a mortar post and a command room for anti-tank missile attacks as well as rocket launchers. The military said over 100 rockets, many of them improvised, had misfired and fallen short, killing four Palestinians, including a ten-year-old girl. Islamic Jihad denied that. “Once again Israel tries to escape its responsibility for the killing of civilians through fabrications and lies,” faction spokesman Dawoud Shehab said. After more than a year of resurgent Israeli-Palestinian violence that has killed more than 140 Palestinians and at least 19 Israelis and foreigners since January, the latest escalation drew international calls for a ceasefire.
“Peace-sponsoring countries”Meeting Jordanian, French and German counterparts in Berlin, Shoukry urged “peace-sponsoring countries to intervene and stop the attacks” and said Israel must “stop the unilateral measures that aim to destroy the future of the Palestinian state.”Islamic Jihad spurns coexistence with Israel and preaches its destruction. Among terms for a truce, it wants an end to Israeli strikes against its leaders. Israel has rejected that. “We are not willing to accept delusional demands from Islamic Jihad,” said Yuli Edelstein, head of parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, on Kan radio. “Every now and then, we have to initiate action.” Both in blockaded Gaza, where residents have been experiencing decades of a worsening humanitarian crisis, and in surrounding Israeli towns, schools and businesses remained shut. “We can’t sleep at night because we worry about bombardment,” said Mohammad Abu el-Subbah, 24, outside a bakery in Gaza City. “People have no clue what will happen next, whether there will be a truce or whether the war will continue.” At least 80 people were wounded in the air strikes that destroyed five buildings and damaged more than 300 apartments, said Salama Marouf, chairman of the Hamas media office.
Israel has kept crossings for the movement of people and goods closed since Tuesday. Israeli authorities estimated that between 30% and 60% of communities around Gaza have evacuated as a precaution. On Wednesday, sirens sounded as far as the commercial capital Tel Aviv, 60 kilometres north of Gaza. As the firing continued in Gaza, the military said it had arrested 25 people in the occupied West Bank associated with Islamic Jihad. In the West Bank town of Tulkarm, the Palestinian health ministry said Israeli forces shot dead a 66-year-old man. The military said troops returned fire after one of them was shot and wounded by gunmen. Israel captured Gaza and the West Bank, areas Palestinians want for an independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital, in a 1967 war. Israeli forces and settlers withdrew from Gaza in 2005. Statehood talks have been frozen since 2014.

Fierce Gaza-Israel fighting renews as truce hopes fade
Associated Press/May 12, 2023
Israel and Gaza militants traded heavy fire Friday as hopes faded of securing a truce to end days of fighting that have killed dozens, all but one of them Palestinian. The violence has been met with international calls for de-escalation, with the European Union pushing Thursday for an "immediate comprehensive ceasefire."Israel announced it was "striking Islamic Jihad targets" in the densely populated Palestinian territory, while AFP journalists saw airstrikes hit Gaza City. Sirens warning of incoming fire meanwhile rang out in Israeli communities close to the border with the Gaza Strip, as well as blaring in an Israeli settlement near Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank. Violence broke out Tuesday when Israel killed three top members of the Islamic Jihad militant group, while subsequent strikes have killed two other senior figures. Islamic Jihad said the latest rocket fire, seen by AFP journalists, was a "response to the assassinations and the continued aggression against the Palestinian people". It came hours after a rocket killed one civilian in the central Israeli city of Rehovot on Thursday evening. At least 31 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza's health ministry, including militants and several civilians as well as children. Daily life in the coastal territory, ruled by the Hamas militant group, has largely come to a standstill, while Israel has told its citizens near Gaza to stay close to bomb shelters. In Gaza's central Deir al-Balah area, farmer Belal Basher stood beside the ruins of the home he said was hit by multiple Israeli strikes. "Our situation is the same as that of any Palestinian citizen whose house is targeted and whose dream, built over the years, is destroyed," the 33-year-old told AFP. Earlier Friday there had been cautious optimism a truce may be nearing, with an Islamic Jihad source telling AFP a deal drawn up by Cairo had been circulated among the group's leadership. "Israel must commit to stopping the assassinations in Gaza and the West Bank," a second source within Islamic Jihad said, detailing the group's key condition for a ceasefire. Home 'seriously shaking' -The decision to renew air strikes on Gaza this week was authorized by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who returned to power in December alongside extreme-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies. The violence has left more than 90 people wounded in Gaza, according to the latest health ministry toll. Israel's Magen David Adom emergency services has treated five people hit by shrapnel, glass or suffered blast injuries from the rocket fire. In Rehovot, 82-year-old resident Ran Lev said he was heading to the bomb shelter when the rocket hit which killed his neighbor. "The entire apartment was seriously shaking. All the photo frames fell," he said.
The United States, which along with Brussels has blacklisted Islamic Jihad and Hamas, urged that steps be "taken to ensure that violence is reduced". The Israeli military said it has hit 170 Islamic Jihad targets this week, while more than 860 rockets have been fired from Gaza. Israel said a quarter of the rockets fell inside Gaza and killed four, including three children, an accusation Islamic Jihad and Hamas did not respond to when approached by AFP. This week's escalation is the worst since August, when 49 Gazans were killed in three days of fighting between Islamic Jihad and Israel. At least 19 of those fatalities were children, according to the United Nations, while rocket fire wounded three people in Israel. That conflict followed multiple wars fought between Israel and Hamas since the group took control of Gaza in 2007. An Israeli blockade imposed since then has made it impossible for the vast majority of 2.3 million residents to leave Gaza, where poverty and unemployment are rife.

Jerusalem in Islamic Jihad crosshairs as Gaza fighting continues
Arab News/May 12, 2023
Following the firing of rockets toward Jerusalem, the Israeli media reported that Israel had informed Egypt to stop the cease-fire talks. For the first time since the start of the current round of fighting, Islamic Jihad fired shells toward Jerusalem. They were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system
Gaza City: Fighting between the Palestinian resistance group Islamic Jihad and Israeli forces continued for a fourth day on Friday, with no signs of an imminent cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. For the first time since the start of the current round of fighting, Islamic Jihad fired shells toward Jerusalem. They were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. Al-Quds Brigades, Islamic Jihad’s military wing, said the Palestinian resistance launched “a focused missile strike in two phases toward occupied Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and enemy cities in response to the assassinations and the continued aggression against the Palestinian people.” It added: “We fulfilled our promise, there are no red lines,” referring to the firing of rockets toward Jerusalem for the first time. “The firing of rockets towards Jerusalem is an important message for everyone to understand that what is happening in Jerusalem is not separate from Gaza.”
The burst of rocket fire from Gaza sent warning sirens wailing as far north as the contested capital of Jerusalem — about 77 kilometers from the Gaza border — breaking a 12-hour lull in the fighting. There were no immediate reports of casualties on either side on Friday. The fighting, which began on Tuesday between Israel and Islamic Jihad — the second-largest militant group in Gaza after the territory’s rulers, Hamas — has left 31 Palestinians in the strip dead, including women and children. More than 100 have been wounded. A high-ranking Islamic Jihad official told Al-Jazeera that his organization could up the ante further, taking action that would surprise everyone, if Israel were to continue to attack. He described the coming hours as critical in the effort to reach a cease-fire agreement. Following the firing of rockets toward Jerusalem, the Israeli media reported that Israel had informed Egypt to stop the cease-fire talks.
The Israeli radio station Radio Kan reported: “The person who conveyed the message to the Egyptian intelligence chiefs about suspending the mediation talks for a cease-fire via a phone call is the coordinator of the Israeli government’s operations in the territories, Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alayan.”
Egypt has been unsuccessfully trying to broker a cease-fire between the two sides. The BBC website reported that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah, and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will discuss the cease-fire talks over the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The BBC also reported that “the obstacle to achieving the understanding” is the Islamic Jihad’s condition that Israel cease its assassinations of Palestinian officials. Israel on Friday continued to bomb areas of the Gaza Strip, most of which are agricultural lands and military sites belonging to the Palestinian factions, most notably Islamic Jihad. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said: “The resistance is carrying out its duty in defending our Palestinian people in the face of the continued aggression of the occupation. “The occupation will not succeed in breaking the will of our resistance or the steadfastness of our people by escalating its terrorism, and all experiences have proven the impossibility of the occupation’s victory in the battle of wills with our Palestinian people.” The Israeli closure of the crossings has added to the suffering of Gazans in need of medical treatment. Gaza’s power plant has been unable to supply adequate electricity because of the absence of fuel. The government information office said it may cease operations within 72 hours due to the lack of fuel. “The depletion of fuel allocated to the power plant due to the closure of the Kerem Shalom crossing will exacerbate the situation of the health system,” the Palestinian Non-Governmental Organizations Network said in a statement. “PNGO warns of the serious repercussions of the continued Israeli aggression and the closure of the crossings on the lives of patients. It exacerbates their health conditions and the ability of the health sector to deal with them,” it added.

Palestinian reaction in West Bank to Israeli attacks on Gaza ‘below expectations’
Arab News/May 12, 2023
RAMALLAH: The apparent lack of a strong reaction in the West Bank to the deadly Israeli campaign targeting the Islamic Jihad movement in the Gaza Strip is because the resistance group has set a new precedent by responding to the aggression with rocket attacks rather than protests, according to a Fatah leader. “The sound of Islamic Jihad’s missiles launched toward Israel, and the sound of the bombs of Israeli warplanes, are louder than any mass protests that could take place in the West Bank,” Taysir Nasrallah, a member of Fatah’s Revolutionary Council in Nablus, told Arab News. Islamic Jihad set a precedent by launching rockets toward Israel following the assassination on May 10 of three commanders of the militant group, he said. The perception was therefore that popular protests in solidarity with the victims seemed useless, he added. However, the sacrifices made by Islamic Jihad fighters are supposed to be linked to efforts to achieve the political goals of the Palestinian people, Nasrallah said. “Still, no one knows what the Islamic Jihad wants to achieve politically for the Palestinian people — and I believe there is nothing,” he added. Political analyst Riyad Qadriya told Arab News that demonstrations in the West Bank of solidarity with Gazans had been below expectations, both publicly and officially. “There are modest responses that do not match the magnitude of the attack,” he told Arab News, referring to brief official statements by the two most prominent armed groups in the northern West Bank: Jenin Brigade in the Jenin camp, and Lions’ Den in the old city of Nablus. “I expected stronger official and popular support to confuse Israel and prevent it from concentrating on the Gaza Strip but I think that if the war continues and there are more civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip, popular protests will take place in the West Bank.”Prominent Palestinian political analyst Ghassan Al-Khatib told Arab News that he believes the current aggression targeting Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip “is a continuation of Israel’s war in the West Bank against Islamic Jihad, which began more than a year ago and focused on Jenin and Nablus in the northern West Bank.”He said Palestinians in the West Bank “are exhausted after more than a year of being subjected to continuous campaigns of Israeli oppression, whether by the Israeli army or settlers.”However, “there are strong popular feelings of solidarity with the Gaza Strip among the Palestinians in the West Bank,” he added. Social media has been flooded with news and images of incidents in the Gaza Strip, with some observing that displays of solidarity appear largely limited to online activity rather than protests on the ground. Meanwhile, Palestinians in the city of Umm Al-Fahm, inside Israel, staged a sit-in in solidarity with the people of Gaza on Thursday night. The National and Islamic Action factions in Jenin camp also organized a sit-in to condemn the Israeli aggression. Dozens of people participated, calling on the international community to intervene and support defenseless Palestinians who face the threats of attack and losing their properties. On Friday, a Palestinian youth was injured during a settler attack in Silwad, east of Ramallah. Local sources said settlers stormed the area, resulting in clashes, and a settler fired on youths, wounding one. Israeli army forces immediately arrived to protect the settlers, they added.

Israel is ‘colonial power’ violating international law: UN special rapporteur

Arab News/May 12, 2023
LONDON: Israel is carrying out a colonization policy toward Palestine, the UN special rapporteur on human rights for the Occupied Territories has told The Guardian. Francesca Albanese, an Italian lawyer and human rights academic, has been the target of a campaign by pro-Israel groups to discredit her based on accusations of bias and antisemitism. Israeli ministers have also called for her resignation. Albanese described the criticism as “intimidation, no more, no less,” adding that it amounted to “dogs barking at aeroplanes.”She told The Guardian: “For me, apartheid is a symptom and a consequence of the territorial ambitions Israel has for the land of what remains of an encircled Palestine.”She added: “Israel is a colonial power maintaining the occupation in order to get as much land as possible for Jewish-only people. And this is what leads to the numerous violations of international law.”Discussing claims that she had equated the Nakba with the Holocaust, Albanese said: “In as much as the Holocaust has been a defining moment in the collective life of the Jewish people, so is the Nakba, for the Palestinian people. “So I’ve not said that they are the same, simply because they are not. Why would we compare two tragedies?”The UN is marking the Nakba for the first time in its history on Monday. Albanese has submitted her first report on Palestinian self-determination to the UN General Assembly. It is set to be followed by a report on Israel’s systemic arrest of Palestinians, which she says amounts to deprivation of liberty. “If states are really committed to the two-state solution, as the UK seems to be, rhetorically in my view, like all other Western states, they should make sure that Israel’s conduct is aligned with the possibility of having a Palestinian state, which means sovereignty from a political, economic, cultural point of view. The right to self-determination should be the starting point,” Albanese said. “Member states need to stop commenting on violations here or there, or escalation of violence, since violence in the occupied Palestinian territory is cyclical, it is not something that accidentally explodes. “There is only one way to fix it, and that is to make sure that Israel complies with international law.” Albanese said Britain is failing to uphold international law with regard to Israel’s actions, adding: “The responsibility on the UK is higher considering the historical legacy of the UK in the area. “The UK doesn’t seem to be active on this agenda, such as compliance with international law. It is about time there is a paradigm change toward the question of Palestine.”

New UK Special Representative to Syria appointed
Naharnet/May 12, 2023
Ann Snow has been appointed UK Special Representative to Syria. She has taken up the role in succession to Jonathan Hargreaves. Snow joined the British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in 2009. She has served in Malaysia and worked on Iran, China and Counter Terrorism. She takes up the role after 15 months of full-time Arabic-language training. Before joining the FCDO, she worked for an international human rights organization, the UK Parliament and as a Middle East analyst in the private sector. "The UK Special Representative’s role is to lead the UK response to domestic and international activity on Syria and the region, engaging with key actors and partners in particular the Syrian opposition," an FCDO statement said. After starting her work, the UK Syria representative said: “I am delighted to take up this role at a vital, albeit difficult time for Syria, which has now entered its 13th year of conflict. Syria continues to face a humanitarian catastrophe as injustice and instability ravage the country." "The UK will not give up on Syria. Our aid and other assistance to the Syrian people now tops well over £3.8 billion to date, making the UK the third largest bilateral donor to the Syria crisis; our largest ever response to a single humanitarian crisis. We will stay active in our support of U.N. efforts, as well as in pushing to hold the regime and its backers accountable for the crimes they have committed against the Syrian people. I look forward to working with Syrians and all our partners in the region and internationally on all of these issues," Snow added. Syria entered its 13th year of conflict this March, only one month after devastating earthquakes struck the region, exacerbating an already devastated county.

UN must keep moving quake aid to Syria after deadline: Amnesty

AFP/May 12, 2023
BEIRUT: Amnesty International on Friday called on the United Nations to keep delivering crucial aid to quake-stricken Syrians via two crossings in rebel-held areas even if authorization from Damascus expires. On February 6, a devastating earthquake hit Turkiye and Syria, killing more than 55,000 people across both countries. The UN chief said on February 13 that Syrian President Bashar Assad had agreed to open the Bab Al-Salama and Al-Rai crossings from Turkiye to allow aid to enter for an initial period of three months. Damascus has yet to announce an extension of the authorization. The UN “must continue to deliver aid” through those two crossings after May 13 “regardless of whether the government renews” its consent, Amnesty said in a statement. Before the disaster, almost all crucial humanitarian aid for the more than four million people living in rebel-controlled areas of north and northwest Syria was being delivered from Turkiye through one conduit — the Bab Al-Hawa crossing. The number of UN-approved crossings into Syria had shrunk from four in 2014, after years of pressure from regime allies China and Russia at the UN Security Council. Three days after the quake, the first UN aid convoy crossed into north and northwest Syria and carried tents and other supplies that had been expected before the disaster, sparking fierce criticism from local humanitarian groups and activists. “The lives of more than four million people are at stake and international law is clear that their rights must be paramount,” Amnesty’s Sherine Tadros said in the statement. “The UN should take a clear stand against the cruel political machinations that have hampered its humanitarian operations in northern Syria for several years,” Tadros added. Turkish-backed rebels operate the Bab Al-Salama and Al-Rai crossings in the northern Aleppo province, while the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham controls Bab Al-Hawa in the Idlib region. The UN estimated earlier this week that Syria needs almost $15 billion to recover following the quake, and put total damages and losses for the country at almost $9 billion.

UN envoy: Humanitarian deal between warring sides first step toward ceasefire in Sudan

AP/May 12, 2023
KHARTOUM: The UN envoy for Sudan on Friday welcomed a deal between the country’s warring generals promising safe passage to civilians fleeing the conflict and protection for humanitarian operations in the East African nation. The envoy, Volker Perthes, said the agreement was an important first step toward a cease-fire to the fighting which is about to enter its fourth week. The Sudanese military and the country’s paramilitary, the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, signed a pact late Thursday vowing to alleviate humanitarian suffering across the country, although a truce remains elusive.
Both sides also agreed to refrain from attacks likely to harm civilians. The violence has already killed over 600 people, including civilians, according to the UN healthy agency. “The most important element is that both sides commit to continue talks,” Perthes said during an online UN news conference from his office in Port Sudan. International efforts to turn the deal into a cease-fire have already started, he added. The Associated Press obtained a copy of the agreement, which outlines a series of shared pledges and promises to “facilitate humanitarian action in order to meet the needs of civilians.” The deal signing-ceremony, brokered by the United Sates and Saudi Arabia, was aired by Saudi state media in the early hours of Friday morning. Neither the military nor the RSF immediately issued statements acknowledging Thursday’s pact. It does not provide any detail on how the agreed-on humanitarian promises would be upheld by troops on the ground. Previously, both sides agreed to several short cease-fires, since the fighting broke out on April 15, but all have been violated. In a post on Twitter, Amjad Farid, a Sudan analyst and former aid to the country’s prime minister, said the deal is unlikely to bring any real change on the ground. Other commentators expressed similar skepticism. It is “composed of texts that are already in the international humanitarian law and treaties related to the treatment of civilians in times of war,” Farid wrote.
Despite the signing, residents in Khartoum said fighting continued throughout Friday morning. “I woke up to an airstrike (landing) nearby,” said Waleed Adam, a resident living in the east of the capital. Over the past weeks, the fighting has turned the capital Khartoum into an urban battlefield, and triggered deadly ethnic clashes in the western Darfur region. Around 200,000 people have fled the country, said UNHCR spokeswoman Olga Sarrado, who was also present at Friday’s news conference. The US State Department late Thursday said talks in Jeddah will now focus on arranging “an effective cease-fire of up to approximately 10 days.” The UN and several rights groups have accused both sides — the military, led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces, commanded by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo — of numerous human rights violations. The army has been accused of indiscriminately bombing civilian areas, while the RSF has been condemned for widespread looting, abusing residents, and turning civilian homes into operational bases. Both continue to level blame at each other for the violations. Perthes, who has received death threats and calls to resign, said he is committed to staying in Port Sudan and overseeing the humanitarian effort taking place in the coastal city. He described those who threatened him as marginal “extremists” and said that there is a wide appreciation of UN efforts in Sudan.

Sudanese factions fight on after failing to agree on truce
Reuters/May 12, 2023
KHARTOUM: Airstrikes and artillery pounded Khartoum on Friday after Sudan’s warring army and Rapid Support Forces paramilitary failed to agree to a ceasefire despite committing to protect civilians and allow humanitarian access.
A so-called declaration of principles was signed in Saudi Arabia late on Thursday after nearly a week of talks between the two factions, which had shared power before falling out over a transition to civilian rule. RSF adviser Moussa Khadam told Sky News Arabia the group would abide by the principles agreed to and aimed to reach a complete cease-fire. But there was no letup in violence and the army has not commented on the agreement. Since clashing suddenly on April 15 the rival military factions have shown little sign they are ready to end deadly fighting that has uprooted hundreds of thousands of people and could pitch Sudan into a full-blown civil war. The conflict has paralyzed Sudan’s economy and strangled its trade, aggravating a ballooning humanitarian crisis with the UN saying on Friday that 200,000 people have now fled into neighboring states.
However, UN Sudan envoy Volker Perthes said he expected ceasefire talks to start again on Friday or Saturday and that while previous truces broke down because both sides thought they could win, neither now believes that victory would be quick. His upbeat assessment contrasted with disappointment among many in the capital. “We were expecting that the agreement would calm down the war, but we woke up to artillery fire and airstrikes,” said Mohamed Abdallah, 39, living in Khartoum, as blasts were also heard in neighboring Bahri. In Darfur in the west, fighting between local militias that killed 450 people last month flared again in the city of Geneina as one group attacked another, rattling neighborhoods with gunfire and artillery after two weeks of comparative calm. In other parts of Darfur, where a war has simmered since 2003 killing 300,000 people and displacing 2.5 million, locally arranged ceasefires between the army and RSF appeared to hold. In Port Sudan on the Red Sea, Al-Taj Al-Tayyib said he hoped Thursday’s agreement represented a start toward peace. “Our country doesn’t need all these crises. I swear this country doesn’t need that,” he said. Many UN and other aid agencies have suspended aid to Sudan and in particular Khartoum, awaiting guarantees their stores and staff will be safe.

Disinformation adds dark note to pivotal Turkish election

AFP/May 12, 2023
ISTANBUL: The clip lasted 14 seconds, presented by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as proof that his rival in Sunday’s election was running “hand in hand” with outlawed Kurdish militants. Aired at a huge rally and beamed live on TV, the video showed opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu trying to rally his supporters to the tune of his campaign song. In the next sequence, members of Turkiye’s banned PKK group echoed that call while clapping their hands to the beat of Kilicdaroglu’s election jingle. The message Erdogan was trying to project was clear: the secular opposition leader had formed a union with “terrorists.”Only it was a montage, one of the latest pieces of disinformation to pollute the campaign of one of Turkiye’s closest and most important elections in generations. “How can a person sitting in the president’s chair stoop this low,” Kilicdaroglu, whose campaign has been endorsed by Turkiye’s main pro-Kurdish party, fumed on Tuesday. Running neck-and-neck with Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu claims that “foreign hackers” recruited by Erdogan’s team are preparing deepfakes — manipulated videos and soundbites — aimed at discrediting rivals days before the election.
“Dear Russian friends,” he added on Twitter on Thursday.
“You are behind the montages, conspiracies, deepfake content and tapes that were exposed in this country,” he said without explaining why he was blaming Russia. “If you want our friendship after May 15, get your hands off the Turkish state.”Erdogan has responded in kind, alleging that “an army of trolls” was working for his rival. “You are using lies and misinformation. You are devising schemes that even the devil would not have thought of,” Erdogan told the opposition leader on television. Turkiye’s social media became a political battlefield last October, when parliament adopted a law making the spread of “fake news” punishable by up to three years in prison.Weeks later, Kilicdaroglu became one of the first to be prosecuted under the law for alleging that Erdogan’s Islamic-rooted government was responsible for a “methamphetamine epidemic” in Turkiye. Dunja Mijatovic, the Council of Europe’s commissioner for human rights, warned in May that the law’s “extensive use” was having a “chilling effect on journalists and critical voices.”Suncem Kocer, a disinformation specialist at Istanbul’s Koc University, said such charges and counter-charges had never featured to this extent in past Turkish elections.
“Everybody is trying to define what disinformation is,” Kocer said. “It has turned into a weapon to kind of criminalize the opposite candidate or party. This is something new.” But the actual methods of spreading disinformation remain the same, said Gulin Cavus, co-founder of Turkiye’s Teyit fact checking site.
They appear “on social networks, but also during meetings,” in images that are either cropped or taken out of context. In one example earlier this week, Erdogan showed an excerpt of a newspaper article on a big screen suggesting that Kilicdaroglu had been found guilty of fraud in 1996. In the original article, quickly unearthed by journalists from Teyit, Kilicdaroglu had actually denounced fraud committed by people who took advantage of Turkiye’s social security agency, which he then headed. “These videos can make a real impact on people with little training in media and with digital tools,” Cavus said. Some of the disinformation relies on more tried and tested methods such as fake campaign literature. One leaflet claiming to come from Kilicdaroglu’s team promises to withdraw Turkiye’s troops from Syria and halt all military operations against the PKK. Kocer said all this disinformation was unlikely to sway Sunday’s outcome, where turnout among Turkiye’s 64 million voters is likely to be high. “But disinformation certainly works toward increasing the polarized atmosphere, which is the real danger,” Kocer said.

Erdogan rival accuses Russia of ‘deep fake’ campaign ahead of Sunday vote
Arab News/May 12, 2023
ANKARA: As Turks go to the polls on Sunday to elect their new parliament and president, the country is at a critical crossroads, with fresh allegations about foreign meddling in the elections. In a startling tweet on Thursday night, Turkiye’s opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu accused Russia of interfering with the Turkish elections, saying that Russians are behind the “deep fake” and defamatory material that has been circulating for the past few days on social media. “Dear Russian friends, you are behind the montages, conspiracies, deep fake content and recordings that were exposed in this country yesterday. If you want our friendship to continue after May 15, get your hands off the Turkish state. We still side by cooperation and friendship,” he said in Turkish, and tweeted it also in Russian. However, Moscow rejected Kilicdaroglu’s accusations, with the Kremlin saying in a statement: “If someone gave him such information, they are liars.”Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the US, told Arab News: “Russia has the capability and track record of using disinformation to influence, to impact politics in other countries. Russian malign influence in the US and Germany during elections is well documented. “It is also not a secret that Russia takes sides in Turkish domestic politics. Therefore, it would come as no surprise if Russia conducted malign influence operations in Turkiye as well,” he claimed. Russia has been accused of interfering with the US presidential election in 2016 and in the French presidential campaign and German elections in 2017. “Turkiye today is highly polarized, mainstream media has been eliminated, and Turkish citizens live in echo chambers and deeply distrust each other. As a result, Turkiye is highly exposed to malign foreign influence,” Unluhisarcikli said.
Kilicdaroglu’s claim came after Muharrem Ince, one of the four presidential candidates, announced on Thursday his decision to withdraw his candidacy after being targeted by a series of smear campaigns that included fabricated pornographic images taken from an Israeli site. In other documents, he was also accused of taking bribes from officials to divide the opposition’s votes.
Although his withdrawal may help Kilicdaroglu’s election chances in the first round, it is still unclear whether this will be enough to secure him more than 50 percent of the votes required to win the presidential race on May 14. “There are fears of various undemocratic interventions in Turkiye’s elections. These are substantiated by the government’s past behavior and other examples in the world, and include various manipulative actions and outright rigging by partisan government officials as well as Russian meddling,” Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul, told Arab News. “But none of this is an easy task in this country of over 190,000 ballot boxes, a long legacy of institutionalized democracy and elections, highly mobilized opposition/civil society, and a bureaucracy obsessed with documenting everything.” To do it, he added, one has to ensure the compliance of literally hundreds of thousands of people in one way or another. For Somer, the way to preempt and prevent such interventions is to sway the votes and public opinion to such an extent that the dominant expectation is an imminent opposition victory, and people hesitate to do things they can be held accountable for under a new government.
The activation of some cyberattacks in Turkiye has been predictable.
Last week, Kilicdaroglu also claimed that the opposition bloc might be targeted with fake videos or voice recordings on social media, based on the intelligence reports his party received. During a campaign rally last weekend, Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also played an alleged deep fake video where militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK declared their support for his rival Kilicdaroglu. But the video that aimed to associate the opposition with terror groups was then proved to be fabricated. Publicly, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s administration is not picking sides in the Turkish elections. But it is no secret that Turkish-Russian relations have thrived under Erdogan’s rule with a close personal relationship between the two leaders. Erdogan and Putin recently inaugurated Turkiye’s first nuclear plant in a virtual ceremony.
Another economic bonus from the Kremlin to the incumbent Turkish government is that Russian energy giant Gazprom recently agreed to defer a portion of Turkiye’s gas payments.
Although he is expected to take a more pro-Western position, a Kilicdaroglu win is not expected to completely ruin Russia-Turkiye relations, as Russian ties are especially important for Turkiye’s energy imports and trade. Russia is among Turkiye’s biggest trade partners. In their memorandum, the six-party opposition coalition defined their relations with Russia as follows: “We will maintain relations with the Russian Federation with an understanding that both parties are equal and strengthened by balanced and constructive dialogue at the institutional level.” Somer said: “Similarly, Putin may figure that he may have to interact with a new government he does not want to alienate. Hence, Kilicdaroglu reiterated his interest in good relations conditional upon Russian non-interference.” Somer expects that the Turkish-Russian mutually beneficial relations would continue in a Kilicdaroglu win scenario, but that Turkiye would be more firmly anchored in Western democratic values, institutions and alliances. In an interview with Russia’s RT Network, Kilicdaroglu’s top foreign policy chief and former ambassador Unal Cevikoz said there would not be any serious change in Turkiye’s foreign policy with regard to Russia if Kilicdaroglu won.
“I believe Kilicdaroglu as the new president will have good relations with Putin,” he said.

Iranian Dissident Put Under Police Protection in UKuring an interview with The Associated Press/Friday, Sept. 23, 2022
Leading Iranian dissident based in the US, Masih Alinejad, has been put under 24-hour police protection in the UK after the Metropolitan police received credible threats to her life. Alinejad has become one of the main amplifiers of the protests inside Iran, appearing at the UN and meeting European leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron and the Netherland’s Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Alinejad said the police told her “because of the level of the threats we are going to be with you and protect you everywhere you go. So give us your schedules, we have to know everything in advance to prepare for close protection.” She said the protection was “quite shocking, because I know that the British are a little bit relaxed when it comes to death threats. Now, I believe that the level of the threat is very intense, and it’s very serious. That shows that Iran is actually challenging the UK government on UK soil.” British police met with Alinejad at her hotel room this week. Alinejad told The Guardian, “I’m not as scared for my life, I survived kidnapping plots.”She added: “I survived an assassination plot so I am not scared for my life at all. I dedicate my life to giving voice to voiceless people. This is my goal. But this is scary. This is scary that the free world is allowing the terrorist regime of Iran to make its decisions.”Alinejad left Iran in 2009 and has been living in the US since 2014. She became an international figure when she launched a Facebook page inviting Iranian women to post pictures of themselves without a hijab.
With a social media following of more than 8 million, she describes herself “a channel for the voiceless”. She is in the UK until Saturday to meet lawmakers and make the case for the proscription of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization. Alinejad criticized European leaders who think there is any purpose in negotiating with Iran on a nuclear deal and sent out a warning that they are being watched by the women of Iran. She said the scale of the repression had been stepped up, including a spate of executions. Alinejad also said street by street the women of Iran were challenging the authorities trying to force them to wear the hijab. “I always compare the compulsory hijab to the Berlin Wall, but it is not about me now. It is about teenagers. There is the line in Margaret Atwood’s Handmaid’s Tale: ‘They should have never given us uniforms if they didn’t want us to be an army.’ The women of Iran are taking off the uniform and telling the mullahs we are ending this gender apartheid. The teenagers are like teenagers everywhere – they are not going to be told by barbaric mullahs what music to hear and what to wear,” she noted. Asked about the state of the sometimes viciously divided external opposition, Alinejad said that “dictators were really good at dividing their own opposition, it’s not just us. Look at the Russian opposition, the Venezuelan opposition.”

Iran Frees Two French Citizens, Says Macron
Asharq Al-Awsat/May 12/2023
Two French citizens, Bernard Phelan and Benjamin Briere, have been freed from detention in Iran, President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday, calling it "a relief". French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said in a separate statement that both men were now on their way to France, adding that she spoke to her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian, on Friday morning. "Benjamin Briere and Bernard Phelan will be reunited with their loved ones. This is a relief," Macron said on Twitter. Iran's foreign ministry said the releases were carried out "as a humanitarian act in line with relevant laws and regulations", state media reported. Relations between France and Iran have deteriorated in recent months with Tehran detaining seven French nationals in what Paris has described as arbitrary arrests equivalent to state hostage-taking. A Franco-Irish citizen, Phelan was sentenced to 6.5 years in prison in March for "providing information to another country", despite his poor health, his family had said. The tourism consultant was arrested as anti-government protests spread following the death last year of a young Iranian Kurdish woman, Masha Amini, while in the custody of Iran's morality police. Briere had been held in Iran since his May 2020 arrest for flying a remote-controlled mini helicopter used to obtain aerial or motion images near the Turkmenistan-Iran border. An Iranian court sentenced him to eight years in prison on spying charges in early 2022. Acquitted on appeal in February, Briere was nevertheless detained until his release on Friday. At least four other French nationals are still imprisoned in Iran. "We will continue to work towards the return of our fellow nationals who are still detained in Iran," Macron added. Iran has arrested dozens of foreigners and dual nationals in recent years, mostly on espionage and security-related accusations. Rights groups call that a tactic to win concessions from abroad by inventing charges, an accusation Tehran denies.

Lenderking: Iran Still Smuggling Weapons, Narcotics to Yemen
Asharq Al-Awsat/May 12/2023
US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking said on Thursday that several challenges remain despite the huge progress in the peace process in Yemen. Lenderking told reporters in an online briefing on his latest visit to the region that Iran is still supplying arms and drugs that help fuel the war.
"The Iranians have continued to smuggle weaponry and narcotics toward this conflict and we are very concerned.”"Despite the fact that we welcomed an agreement between the Saudis and the Iranians, I remain concerned about Iran's role," he said. He was referring to the Chinese-brokered accord reached in March. He contended that Tehran has trained Houthi fighters and equipped them "to fight and attack Saudi Arabia."The United States will not reopen its embassy in Sanaa until it is confident the war is over and a "very firm and irreversible" peace process is underway, Lenderking said.

German-Iranian Charged with Arson Attempt Near Synagogue
Asharq Al-Awsat/May 12/2023
German prosecutors on Thursday charged a German-Iranian dual national for an attempted arson attack near a synagogue on the orders of the government in Tehran. Babak J. was instructed by an intermediary “acting on behalf of unknown Iranian state agencies” in November 2022 to carry out an arson attack on a synagogue in the region of North Rhine-Westphalia, the federal prosecutor’s office said in a statement. Subsequently, the accused is said to have sought to convince an acquaintance to set fire to a synagogue in Dortmund using a Molotov cocktail but was refused, AFP reported. Babak J.’s handler later named another synagogue -- in the city of Bochum rather than in Dortmund -- as a target, prosecutors said. “The accused refrained from attacking the well-monitored synagogue in Bochum itself for fear of discovery,” they said. Instead, the suspect tried to set fire to a school building adjoining the synagogue in the western German city, according to prosecutors.

Russia Acknowledges Retreat North of Bakhmut; Mercenary Boss Calls It a ‘Rout’
Reuters/May 12/2023
Moscow acknowledged on Friday that its forces had fallen back north of Ukraine's battlefield city of Bakhmut after a new Ukrainian offensive, in a retreat that the head of Russia's Wagner private army called a rout. The setback for Russia, which follows similar reports of Ukrainian advances south of the city, suggests a coordinated push by Kyiv to encircle Russian forces in Bakhmut, Moscow's main objective for months during the war's bloodiest fighting. It means both sides are now reporting the biggest Ukrainian gains in six months, although Ukraine has given few details and played down suggestions a huge, long-planned counteroffensive had officially begun. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Ukraine had launched an assault north of Bakhmut with more than 1,000 troops and up to 40 tanks, a scale that if confirmed would amount to the biggest Ukrainian offensive since November. The Russians had repelled 26 attacks but troops in one area had fallen back to regroup in more favorable positions near the Berkhivka reservoir northwest of Bakhmut, Konashenkov said. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner forces that have led the campaign in the city, said in an audio message: "What Konashenkov described, unfortunately, is called 'a rout' and not a regrouping". In a separate video message, Prigozhin said the Ukrainians had seized high ground overlooking Bakhmut and opened the main highway leading into the city from the West. "The loss of the Berkhivka reservoir - the loss of this territory they gave up - that's 5 sq km, just today," Prigozhin said. "The enemy has completely freed up the Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road which we had blocked. The enemy is now able to use this road, and secondly they have taken tactical high round under which Bakhmut is located," said Prigozhin, who has repeatedly denounced Russia's regular military over the past week for failing to supply his men in Bakhmut. Reuters was not able to independently verify the situation in the area. Ukraine typically withholds comment on its operations while they are under way, and the military command has said only that its troops have pushed forward about 2 km near Bakhmut. A Ukrainian unit said two days ago it had defeated a Russian brigade southwest of the city recapturing a swathe of land, and Prigozhin also said the Russian brigade there had fled. Prigozhin, whose troops have been fighting to push Ukrainian forces out of Bakhmut's Western outskirts, has said the north and south flanks, guarded by regular Russian troops, were crumbling. Russia's defense ministry denies this.
Turning point
The 15-month-old war in Ukraine is at a turning point, after six months during which Kyiv kept its troops on the defensive while Russia mounted a winter campaign that brought the bloodiest ground combat in Europe since World War Two but yielded scant gains. Since the start of this year, Kyiv has received hundreds of new Western tanks and armored vehicles, holding them back in preparation for a long-awaited counteroffensive to recapture occupied territory. Ukrainian officials have played down the suggestion that their offensive is already under way: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview this week Kyiv needed more time for equipment to arrive. Prigozhin called that deceptive and said the Bakhmut advances amounted to the start of Kyiv's campaign. Moscow has been preparing since last autumn for an expected onslaught and has built lines of anti-tank fortifications along hundreds of miles of front.
It has begun evacuating civilians who have been living near the conflict zone in Ukraine's partially occupied Zaporizhzhia province. "We used to go out and watch (the shelling). Especially at night, you could see the flashes as they launch," said Lyudmila, a 22-year-old from Kamianka-Dniprovska now in makeshift accommodation in the Russian-controlled Ukrainian port of Berdyansk. "We've had shells land nearby and when it landed the entire sky was red," she said. In comments published on Friday, the commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet said its defenses were also being tightened amid a flurry of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting its home base, the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Zelenskiy, who has been rallying his country for the planned offensive, said in a social media post that "our path ahead is not easy", but Ukraine was "much stronger now than last year or in any other year of this war for freedom and independence of our country". He spoke on Friday with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, thanking him for a promise of long-range cruise missiles. Britain announced the missiles on Thursday, breaking one of the last big Western taboos over weaponry previously deemed to carry too great a risk of provoking Russia.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 12-13/2023
Iran: Replacing Khomeini with Clinton
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 12/2023
Is Bill Clinton replacing Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini as the “Source of Emulation” (Marja’a taqlid) of the leadership in Tehran? Posed by an Iranian satirist the question cannot be dismissed as a tongue-in-cheek quip on the new discourse developed by the Khomeinist establishment.
In July 1980 the late ayatollah who founded the Islamic Republic told a group of university professors that the new revolutionary regime should not waste time on economic issues. “We didn’t give so much blood for economic reasons,” he boasted. “Economics is of interest only to asses.”
These days, however, it is Bill Clinton’s first campaign slogan “It’s the economy, stupide!” that is bandied around in Tehran’s ruling circles in various forms.
Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei has led the chorus by designating the current Iranian year (ending in March 2024) as “The Year of Production”, insisting that achieving economic growth is his highest priority.
“We must focus on the economic challenge we face,” he told a recent gathering of the top decision-makers.
In an editorial last Monday, Kayhan, believed to reflect the views of the “Supreme Guide”, claimed that now that the Islamic Republic has defeated the American “Great Satan” in the Middle East, it must deal with hyperinflation as “the greatest threat to our revolution.”
The new tune may be partly prompted by a desire to cast the current nationwide protests as rooted in economic grievances rather than a rejection of the system as a whole.
However, it may also be seen as admission by Khamenei that his campaign for a “resistance economy”, launched 10 years ago, has failed. That campaign had been inspired by North Korea’s “Juche” (self-sufficiency) doctrine developed by Kim Il-sung in the 1960s.
Having registered four consecutive years of negative growth combined with a dramatic fall in the value of the national currency, the Iranian economy resembles a half broken ship in a stormy sea with no captain in charge. Last “Black Monday” the Tehran Stock Exchange registered an all-time historic collapse in share values, wiping out part of the savings of an estimated 2.5 million small and medium investors.
Earlier, official statistics showed a small drop in the annual rate of inflation, hovering close to 50 percent. And yet some economists, including Hashem Pesaran, a veteran analyst of the Iranian economy, warn that Iran may be heading towards hyperinflation of the kind experienced by Argentina, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Latest figures provide other reasons for concern. While the overall rate of inflation seems to have stabilized prices of mass consumer goods, notably food continue to rise faster than the average.
Negative growth means growing shortages on the supply side, the root cause of inflation. Right now over 5,000 public and private sector projects are in “pause position” for lack of funds or skilled workers. At the same time the overall economy is estimated to be losing an average of over 1,000 jobs each day. Part of this is due to a bilateral trade agreement with China under which Beijing buys Iranian oil at a 44 percent discount per barrel and pays the price in Yuans which means massive imports from China, imports that destroy local industries producing similar goods.
At the same time China adamantly refuses to invest in the Iranian economy. An investment package of a paltry $37 million in building a gas pipeline in northeast Iran was withdrawn last week for “further studies.” Another “big project” slated to attract a $200 million investment package by Oman has been veiled and unveiled a number of times. The official media now muse over possible “massive investments” from Saudi Arabia.
A seminar organized by economists close to the establishment last month warned that unless the current trend is reversed Iran may face bread riots of the kind associated with less developed “Third World” nations.
Over the past two to three months the authorities have organized or supported numerous seminars in the hope of finding a miracle solution.
Leaving aside the top echelon of economic decision-making that consists of regime cronies, Iran has many learned economists. They produce countless studies, research papers and policy guidelines that decision-makers either refuse to read or if they read won’t understand.
Even then, knowingly or not, our learned economists are influenced by methods that were in vogue until the 1980s. One such method was the Marxian one according to which the economy represents a society’s infrastructure while politics provide the superstructure. The other method is known as “political economy” advocated by the American economist John Kenneth Galbraith, author of the “Affluent Society”, among others, according to which economics must be in the service of “progressive” political aims.
The problem with both methods is that, each for a reason of its own, ignores the status of economics as an independent science with its own inner logic. Thus, they prevent the development of policy recommendations offering strictly economic measures which, acknowledging the primacy of politics, political decision makers may accept, reject or modify. In Iran, we have an added complication, the adjective “Islamic” that is used to modify every noun. Thus just as we have “Islamic physics” and “Islamic medicine” we also have “Islamic” economics.
Since the root cause of Iran’s prolonged crisis is political trying to deal with its economic effects in isolation is at best a futile pursuit and at worst and exercise in deception. The present system makes meaningful economic decision-making difficult if not impossible. This is because what goes for government in Iran is, in fact, a patchwork of authorities controlling different parts of the economy. A prominent Iranian economist, Hassan Mansoor, says that in Iran the government is “one of several players” in the economic field each pursuing its own agenda and protecting its own interests.”
Some of these players peddle different utopias, thus adding to confusion. In recent months some of those utopias have been on the retreat while still wearing their deceptive smiles. However, it isn’t clear whether that retreat is anything but a tactical move to negotiate a bad patch on the road to Khamenei’s “Great New Islamic Civilization.” I still think both Khomeini and Clinton were wrong. Economics is not for asses, and it isn’t the economy, stupide! Economic failure is caused by bad politics not the other way round.

The Post-American Regional Order

Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 12/2023
While they may have been minimal, US President Joe Biden’s visit last year did yield some positive results. In October, the United States brokered a landmark agreement that settled the longstanding maritime border dispute between Israel and Lebanon. The Biden administration has also sought to enhance regional integration through the establishment of the Negev Forum, which includes Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. It has also launched initiatives to encourage defense cooperation between Israel and Washington’s other Middle Eastern partners.
These steps point to Washington’s priorities in the region: Israel’s integration into the broader Middle East, de-escalation of regional conflicts, and containment of Iran. The first thing Biden thought of was Iran. Despite the ongoing women-led protest movement in Iran, Tehran has managed to break free of its regional and international isolation, normalizing relations with its Gulf Arab neighbors - first the UAE and then, more significantly, with Saudi Arabia.
While Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman have been working to facilitate this rapprochement for years, hosting several pivotal and profound talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the prominent role played by the Chinese in pushing their reconciliation over the line surprised many last March.
China’s role has fueled the already prevalent narrative that US influence in the Middle East is waning. Meanwhile, Iran continues to develop its nuclear program as hopes of reviving the Iran nuclear deal - a top priority of the Biden administration - have been all but dashed. Making matters worse, Moscow Russia’s deepening ties to Tehran amid the Ukraine war have undermined its role in the negotiations for a nuclear deal.
Perhaps more worryingly for the US, Russian oil exports continue to reach Washington’s closest regional partners, including some Gulf states. These Gulf partners have put discounted Russian oil to domestic use, leaving them with more of their own to export as prices rise. Although their aim is to maximize profit, these purchases undercut the impact of Western sanctions against Moscow. Other Arab partners of the US also do business with Russia despite Western objections. Indeed, leaked US intelligence reports indicate that Russia has been trying to purchase ammunition and equipment from some Arab countries.
All of this undoubtedly raises concerns for policymakers in Washington.
In turn, the Israeli government’s policies have triggered one of the most tumultuous periods in Israeli history, raising doubts about the viability of its future as a democracy.
As the country continues to suffer from unrest at home, what looks like a revolution has broken out in the West Bank and along Israel’s northern and southern borders. Notably, we recently saw one of the largest rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon since its 2006 war with Hezbollah. The provocative measures that the Israeli government has taken in Jerusalem could further inflame regional tensions, potentially undermining Israel’s ties to the Arab countries that have normalized relations with it.
After everything, the Biden administration has voiced its support for efforts to de-escalate military tensions in the Middle East. It has publicly spoken positively about the ongoing talks between Riyadh and Tehran, which could end the conflicts wreaking havoc on countries like Yemen. In fact, while China has to account for the burden of ensuring that the two sides respect the commitments they have made as part of the agreement, the United States has little to lose. As a matter of fact, it could perhaps have much to gain, as Middle Eastern stability could allow Washington to channel its energy and resources to top-priority theaters, particularly the Indo-Pacific region and the war in Ukraine. Washington’s regional partnerships - the cornerstone of the Biden administration’s strategy - are under great strain. Relations with Saudi Arabia remain particularly rigid, as the latter’s interests dictate policies that have impacted OPEC - an international organization of oil-producing countries that includes Russia - outputs, to say nothing about the Kingdom’s overtures to Tehran.
Last weekend, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister; UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan; and India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in Jeddah. They discussed ways to fortify their shared vision for a more secure and prosperous Middle East that has stronger ties with India and the world. In his press statement, Sullivan thanked the Saudi Crown Prince for the Kingdom’s help in evacuating US citizens from Sudan.
Finally, Syria is another point of contention, as Washington opposes the recent regional initiatives taken with regard to Syria.
As for Israel, Washington’s most crucial partner in the region, Biden has warned that it “cannot continue on this path,” referring to the anti-democratic legislation proposed by the Netanyahu government, as well as its inflammatory anti-Arab rhetoric and policies. Moreover, the White House has yet to invite Netanyahu to make a state visit to Washington since his return to power.
For its part, Abu Dhabi has also voiced its frustration with the current Israeli government, and it too has refused to invite Netanyahu to the UAE since he won elections last year.
Israel’s actions have also been an impediment to great regional integration, including at the Negev Forum, and the Biden administration’s attempt to reinforce the Abraham Accords by expanding the scope of cooperation among Washington’s regional partners in critical areas, like economic development, climate change, food and water security, education, and health care. However, a ministerial meeting that had been scheduled to be held in Morocco in March fell through amid escalating violence in the West Bank and Gaza.
Although working-level meetings are still being held at the Negev Forum, meetings among the top brass are becoming increasingly rare. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has stressed that it remains committed to the Arab Peace Initiative it had put forward in 2002, which stipulates that resolving the Palestinian conflict is a prerequisite for regional peace. The United States has maintained a strong military presence in the region, and its partners are keen on cooperating with Washington to enhance their missile defense systems and maritime security. Nonetheless, these regional partners simply do not believe they have to choose from competing global power centers, as they are reaping the rewards of exploiting these international rivalries to further their interests.
Thus, it might be wiser for US policymakers to look into the new approaches being taken in the region, as well as reassess Washington’s current regional priorities and partnerships. Indeed, for many observers, China hosting the normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was only the latest indication that a “post-American regional order” has emerged.

Chinese Embrace Brazil as "Global Strategic Partner" as Brazilian President Visits China
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute./May 12, 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping also apparently persuaded Lula to support the use of China's yuan to replace the dollar as the global standard currency.... China also might want Brazil to grant permission to purchase additional farmland. China already owns more than 200,000 hectares of Brazilian land.
The Brazilian leader's fifth visit to China on April 14 was a stark contrast to his cool visit to the US this past February.
Brazil's warming ties to China also have an economic purpose. China is Brazil's largest trading partner, and Brazil exports a great deal of agricultural produce to China. Brazil appears hopeful for increased Chinese investment to modernize its industrial plants as well as technology transfer for its semiconductor production.
Above all, Lula has praised China's rhetoric favoring the establishment of a new, non-US led international order based on multipolarity. China has acknowledged Lula's support by emphasizing Brazil's prominent role in the multinational "BRICS" alliance consisting of Brazil. Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
The Chinese triumph, however, may prove short-lived. Bolsonaro -- who condemned China as a "predator" and infuriated the CCP by visiting Taiwan in February 2018 when he was campaigning for the presidency -- remains popular and may run against Lula in Brazil's next presidential election.
The recent visit to China of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) is an apparent triumph for the Chinese Communist Party in its effort to broaden its influence in Latin America. Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled the significance of Lula's visit by upgrading its bilateral relations with Brazil to a "Global Strategic Relationship." Pictured: Xi and Lula at a signing ceremony in Beijing on April 14, 2023. (Photo by Ken Ishii/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
The mid-April visit to China of newly inaugurated Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) is an apparent triumph for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in its effort to broaden its influence in Latin America. The visit also seems to have served Lula's legacy dream of being perceived as a moral beacon and advocate for the impoverished "Global South."
Lula, now 76, is serving his third term as Brazil's president, after barely defeating the pro-US and conservative nationalist former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula has long been an advocate of a socialist model of economic development. He once expressed his respect for the CCP, on an earlier visit to China, "for having created this grand miracle." According to Wang Yi , CCP Director of Foreign Affairs, Lula also expressed admiration for China's having brought millions out of poverty and hunger.
Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled the significance of Lula's visit by upgrading its bilateral relations with Brazil to a "Global Strategic Relationship," as he urged Brazil to celebrate next year's 50th anniversary of bilateral relations by increasing support for China's "Belt and Road Initiative." Xi also apparently persuaded Lula to support the use of China's yuan to replace the dollar as the global standard currency.
Professor Wang You-ming of China's Institute of International Relations describes this transition as passing from an "Economically Hot/Politically Cold Relationship to a Hot/Political and Hot Economic" status. China also might want Brazil to grant permission to purchase additional farmland. China already owns more than 200,000 hectares of Brazilian land. During Lula's visit to China, 15 bilateral agreements were signed covering broad issues.
The Brazilian leader's fifth visit to China on April 14 was a stark contrast to his cool visit to the US this past February. There were no new agreements during the Lula-Biden tête-à-tête. This lack of positive developments is magnified by the continuing trend of US companies drawing down on their investment footprint in Brazil. Ford Motor Company, for instance, began to pull up stakes in Brazil in 2021 and is now in negotiations with a Chinese company to sell its remaining plant in Brazil's Bahia State.
Since Lula's election, he has made his foreign policy quite clear. Lula, for example, is opposed to sanctions on Moscow after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He intimated that US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are partially responsible for Moscow's invasion. Lula even counseled that the US and Europe were prolonging the war by sending arms to Ukraine, and that China, Turkey and Brazil were best suited to help Russia and the Ukraine agree on negotiations. Lula also has also long supported the creation of a Palestinian state. Brazil's Palestinian community likely lent their electoral support to Lula, whose views on Israel are in stark contrast to Bolsonaro's pro-Israel stance.
Brazil's warming ties to China also have an economic purpose. China is Brazil's largest trading partner, and Brazil exports a great deal of agricultural produce to China. Brazil appears hopeful for increased Chinese investment to modernize its industrial plants as well as technology transfer for its semiconductor production. China has expressed its desire to revolutionize traditional bilateral commerce with Brazil, and shift to increased orientation toward newer technologies, such as digitalization and e-commerce. Wang Yi, appealing to Lula's proclivity to support environment projects, such as protecting the Amazon rain forest, predicted that future bilateral exchanges will include environmental cooperation.
Above all, Lula has praised China's rhetoric favoring the establishment of a new, non-US led international order based on multipolarity. China has acknowledged Lula's support by emphasizing Brazil's prominent role in the multinational "BRICS" alliance consisting of Brazil. Russia, India, China, and South Africa. BRICS is part of China's quest to displace the US as global leader. The close links between China and Brazil are likely to become increasingly apparent. Several Chinese provinces have developed economic and investment partnerships with almost all of Brazil's state governments, which flourished even in the Bolsonaro years.
The Chinese triumph, however, may prove short-lived. Bolsonaro -- who condemned China as a "predator" and infuriated the CCP by visiting Taiwan in February 2018 when he was campaigning for the presidency -- remains popular and may run against Lula in Brazil's next presidential election.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.
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On the ballot in Turkey: trust and the democratic spirit

Alexandra de Cramer/The Arab Weekly/May 12/2023
Turkey heads to the polls on Sunday for one of the most important elections in the country’s recent history. The stakes are high, for the average Turk, and for the elite who have governed for more than two decades.
Despite what has felt like an iron grip on national politics, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are vulnerable. Amid staggering inflation, record low wages and a tightening of personal freedoms, the party that came to power in 2002 could finally be on its way out. Either way, security and transparency will be essential if the results are to be respected. For all of Turkey’s economic and political woes, Turks believe in the democratic process and take elections seriously. Since the 1990s, Turkey’s voter turnout has averaged 78.5 percent and exceeded 86 percent in 2018. Both are higher than many Western democracies, including the United States (turnout for the 2020 presidential election was 66.8 percent, the highest of the twenty-first century) and France, where 72 percent of the electorate voted in last year’s presidential race. Thousands of Turks have already queued outside their embassies around the world to vote early. But while Turks may exercise their voting rights, they do not always accept the results. It is a downward spiral of trust that the AKP has presided over. In 2007, roughly 75 percent of the country believed elections were fair. By 2015, that had shrunk to around half, and today, electoral trust is as low as it has ever been.
Several factors have contributed to this crisis. For starters, an election cannot be considered “free” and “fair” if it is held under the restrictions of a state of emergency (which is how the 2018 general elections were conducted). And yet, areas hit hardest by February’s earthquakes have been under a state of emergency for months. Second, the media landscape heavily favours the incumbent party, which hurts the opposition’s campaigning. A 2018 post-election analysis by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) found that opposition candidates could not get airtime, in part because the news media is “dominated by outlets whose owners are considered affiliated with the government or depend on public contracts.” Five years ago, opposition candidates received a fraction of the news coverage afforded to Erdogan and his party, the OSCE found. These dynamics remain in place. In the run-up to this election, public broadcaster TRT gave Erdogan nearly 33 hours of airtime between April 1 and May 1, while opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu received just 32 minutes. Third, election results have a way of being manipulated by those in power. In June 2015, after suffering parliamentary losses that made it impossible to form a government, Erdogan called for “repeat” elections five months later. This time, AKP came out on top. Then, in March 2019, after losing the mayoral race in Istanbul, the AKP cried foul and demanded a re-run. Turkey’s electoral board agreed. The AKP’s candidate lost the second election, too, but that did not stop supporters from playing dirty. After Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu declared that “those calling off the first round of elections were foolish,” defamation charges were brought. He has since been sentenced to more than two years in jail for “publicly insulting” the elections committee.
Given past transgressions by the ruling party, election monitors are planning a heavy presence this weekend. For instance, Oy ve Otesi (Vote and Beyond), a domestic monitoring organisation founded after the Gezi Park protests of 2013, has trained more than 220,000 citizens to ensure that elections are transparent, independent and fair. International monitors are also scheduled to observe the voting, though Ankara has taken steps in recent days to restrict access to European monitors. Media clampdowns have also been reported ahead of the vote. Elections observers hope that by raising concerns when issues arise, systemic corruption can be avoided. This will be easier in large cities like Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul. Harder will be tracking discrepancies in areas hit by the earthquakes, where nearly two million eligible voters, out of nine million, have been displaced. One local initiative, TULOV, has begun a campaign to bring earthquake victims to the polls, but so far, only a few thousand have been helped so far. Against the odds, this has become one of Turkey’s most competitive races in years. Opposition candidates are testing Erdogan and the AKP, empowered by an angry, frustrated electorate. The election could go very wrong. Or, with thousands of trained volunteers committed to spending hours guarding ballot boxes throughout the country, Sunday could be a much-needed reminder that Turkey’s democratic spirit is alive and well.
*Alexandra de Cramer is a journalist based in Istanbul. She reported on the Arab Spring from Beirut as a Middle East correspondent for Milliyet newspaper. Her work ranges from current affairs to culture, and has been featured in Monocle, Courier Magazine, Maison Francaise, and Istanbul Art News.
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