English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 05/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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15 آذار/2023
Bible Quotations For today
Do not work for the food that perishes, but for the food that endures for
eternal life, which the Son of Man will give you. For it is on him that God the
Father has set his seal.’”
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 06/22-27:”The next day the
crowd that had stayed on the other side of the lake saw that there had been only
one boat there. They also saw that Jesus had not got into the boat with his
disciples, but that his disciples had gone away alone. Then some boats from
Tiberias came near the place where they had eaten the bread after the Lord had
given thanks. So when the crowd saw that neither Jesus nor his disciples were
there, they themselves got into the boats and went to Capernaum looking for
Jesus. When they found him on the other side of the lake, they said to him,
‘Rabbi, when did you come here?’Jesus answered them, ‘Very truly, I tell you,
you are looking for me, not because you saw signs, but because you ate your fill
of the loaves. Do not work for the food that perishes, but for the food that
endures for eternal life, which the Son of Man will give you. For it is on him
that God the Father has set his seal.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on May 04-05/2023
Bukhari tells al-Rahi KSA has
no veto on any presidential candidate
Sheikh Akl Abi Al-Muna discusses general situation with KSA Ambassador, hails
Saudi role
Sheikh Al-Khatib broaches developments with KSA Ambassador
Sami Gemayel to opposition: Securing quorum to Franjieh like electing him
Lebanon Legal Council Dismisses Judge Ghada Aoun
Geagea to Shea: Franjieh's chances have become nil
Berri 'relieved' on presidential file, rest of month 'critical'
Khoury asks judges not to make statements without prior approval
Raja Salameh appears before European judicial team
Lebanese government stands firm on obtaining data on Syrian refugees
Beirut Airport’s number of travelers increases by 36% in April
Mawlawi meets UN's Wronecka, UN's Riza, discusses coordinatory affairs with
Caretaker Minister Nassar
Berri meets Arab clans’ sheikhs’ delegation: We stand shoulder to shoulder in
the face of strife between the sons of one nation
Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
Lebanon's Serge Nader wins for his sustainable 3D prints in Canada
LIC Welcomes U.S. Administration Statement
Sit-in in front of Justice Palace rejects “pressure against judges”
Lebanese dreams of a new political system are futile for now/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab
News/May 04/2023
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on May 04-05/2023
Israel minister: Iran nuke enrichment could ignite region
Iran Arrests Firm Managers for Backing Labor Strikes
Iran's Raisi, on Syria visit, urges anti-Israel unity
Microsoft: Iran Accelerates Its Cyber Influence Operations Worldwide
Iranian Official Says Saudi Trade Delegation to Visit Tehran Soon
IAEA Affirms Reinstalling Surveillance Cameras in Iran
Israel seized Binance crypto accounts to 'thwart' Islamic State, document shows
Arab foreign ministers to discuss Syria, Sudan in Cairo
Iranian president meets Palestinian officials in Syria
Forces kill 3 Palestinians behind deaths of British-Israelis
U.S. Blasts 'Ludicrous' Russian Claim Of Plotting Putin Assassination Attempt
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and UN to discuss grain deal on Friday
Details in the drone incident the Kremlin says aimed to assassinate Putin 'don't
quite add up.' Experts have 3 theories on what happened.
In Ukraine’s forests, fighters race to prepare for next push
US envoy to UN urges Brazil to see Ukrainian side to the war
U.S. tries to stop war between Armenia, Azerbaijan in already volatile Eastern
Europe
Norway oil fund to back climate resolution at refiner Valero's AGM
Canada is considering expelling Chinese diplomat for targeting lawmaker
UN fails to raise enough money for Yemen oil tanker operation
Titles For
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on May 04-05/2023
Jordanian MP Lauded as "Hero" for Smuggling Weapons into Israel/Bassam
Tawil/Gatestone Institute/May 4, 2023
The new – or perhaps renewed – Cold War ...You can’t win it if you don’t know
you’re in it/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 04/2023
Report: Unprecedented Rise in Hate Crimes against American Churches/Raymond
Ibrahim/May 04/2023
The Scourge of War and Sudan’s Fate/Jumah Boukleb/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Iran’s Next Step in Syria: Armed Militias Turn to Economic Militias/Camelia
Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Intel Signals Putin’s Dream of a Total Takeover Is Now Dashed/Shannon Vavra/The
Daily Beast/May 4, 2023
Close ties with the GCC should be a priority for Biden/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/May 04, 2023
Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on May 04-05/2023
Bukhari tells al-Rahi KSA has no veto on any presidential
candidate
Naharnet/May 04/2023
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari met Thursday with Maronite Patriarch
Beshara al-Rahi in Bkerki. Bkerki’s spokesperson Walid Ghayad said that Bukhari
has told al-Rahi that KSA considers the presidency a Lebanese decision and has
no objection to any name. "Saudi Arabia is against any dictations and will not
object to any elected candidate," Ghayad quoted Bukhari as saying. He said that
Bukhari also stressed on KSA's keenness on not being accused of obstructing the
presidential vote. Bukhari had on Wednesday held talks with Speaker Nabih Berri
and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and emphasized the need to speed up the
election of a president who would be able to achieve the aspirations of the
Lebanese.
Sheikh Akl Abi Al-Muna discusses general situation with KSA
Ambassador, hails Saudi role
NNA/May 04/2023
Sheikh Akl of the Unitarian Druze Community, Dr. Sami Abi Al-Muna, on Thursday
received at the Druze Community House in Beirut, the Ambassador of the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari. Discussions touched on the general
situation, bilateral relations, and current issues on the domestic and
international arenas.The meeting was an occasion during which Sheikh Abi Al-Muna
hailed the active role of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the Arab and
international levels, and its historical relationship with Lebanon, and its
constant stand by the country during its ordeals and crises.
Sheikh Al-Khatib broaches developments with KSA Ambassador
NNA/May 04/2023
Deputy Head of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council, Sheikh Ali Al-Khatib, on
Thursday received at the Council's headquarters, the Ambassador of the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari, who offered him well-wishes on the
occasion of the holy Fitr Eid. Discussions touched on the brotherly relations
between the two countries and the two brotherly peoples, as well as on
developments in Lebanon and the region. Sheikh Al-Khatib blessed "the
Saudi-Iranian agreement that preserves the interests of the two countries and is
reflected on the overall Arab and Islamic situation," and hoped that "the coming
days will witness an internal breakthrough leading to the election of a
consensual president in preparation for the formation of a rescue government
that will get Lebanon out of its economic and livelihood crises." Al-Khatib also
underlined the "influential Saudi role in strengthening Arab-Islamic
solidarity."
Sami Gemayel to opposition: Securing quorum to Franjieh
like electing him
Naharnet/May 04/2023
Kataeb Party leader Sami Gemayel on Thursday warned the opposition forces that
securing parliamentary quorum for the election of Suleiman Franjieh would be
“equivalent to electing him.”“I reassure everyone that the kingdom has not
requested and we do not receive instructions from anyone, seeing as our stances
and choices are related to our convictions and our country’s interest,” Gemayel
said after meeting Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari in Saifi. “The Arab
stance is clear in standing by Lebanon if it is willing to carry out reforms,
but if it heads to further isolation and subordination to Hezbollah, the Arab
brothers have sent a clear message that it won’t be able to depend on them,”
Gemayel added. “We reject the election of any candidate loyal to Hezbollah and
it is not required to replace Franjieh with someone else (who is loyal to
Hezbollah), because the matter is about a political choice and not the person,”
the Kataeb chief went on to say. As for the possibility of electing a so-called
consensual president, Gemayel said: “If it possible to agree on a consensual
president and if they would withdraw Franjieh, we would withdraw our candidate
Michel Mouawad.”“We would then go to parliament with the presence of three or
four candidates and let the best candidate win,” Gemayel added.
Lebanon Legal Council Dismisses Judge Ghada Aoun
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
The Lebanese judiciary's disciplinary council on Thursday decided to remove from
office one of the judges who has brought charges against the country's central
bank governor and commercial banks. A number of domestic and foreign probes have
been launched against Lebanon's financial officials following decades of
profligate spending and mismanagement. Judge Ghada Aoun, who has investigated
corruption by top Lebanese officials and the practices of the financial sector,
told Reuters the disciplinary council accused her of bias. "They are punishing
me for doing my job," Aoun told reporters on Thursday after she left a hearing
of the council, during which she was informed of its decision to dismiss her.
Aoun said the bias accusations were based on comments she had made about corrupt
officials. She said she had appealed the decision and could legally keep
practicing until the appeal was decided. A senior judicial source told Reuters
that the council had voted unanimously to dismiss her after numerous complaints
were filed against her over her investigations. Earlier this year, Lebanon's
prime minister and interior minister moved to restrict her probe into commercial
banks, saying she was "overstepping authority" after she charged two banks with
money laundering. Aoun also charged central bank governor Riad Salameh last year
with illicit enrichment, in a case related to wider corruption investigations in
Lebanon and at least five European countries. Salameh, who denies the
accusations, was later charged by another Lebanese judge with illicit
enrichment.
Geagea to Shea: Franjieh's chances have become nil
Naharnet/May 04/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Thursday noted that “betting on time in
the presidential file will not serve any camp, especially the Axis of Defiance
and its candidate.”The chances of the aforementioned candidate, Suleiman
Franjieh, “have become nil,” Geagea added, during a meeting in Maarab with U.S.
Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea. “The game of time will only aggravate the
crisis and delay the chances of reform,” the LF leader warned. “The time has
come to show the needed courage and call on parliament to convene and carry out
its constitutional missions, topped by the election of a president, as soon as
possible,” Geagea told Shea. “The initiative today is in the hands of the
Lebanese themselves, who should secure the election of a figure who not only
enjoys integrity and honesty, but also the sufficient courage to manage the
country amid this critical and serious situation,” the LF leader went on to say.
Berri 'relieved' on presidential file, rest of month
'critical'
Naharnet/May 04/2023
The developments related to the presidential file are “more than relieving,”
contrary to “all the tense atmosphere that is being created by political
components angry over the foreign efforts,” informed sources said. The tense
atmosphere has been reflected in “the unprecedented attack on the French role,
which has presented Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh as the candidate who
has the highest chances and whose election would achieve Lebanon’s interest,”
the sources added, in remarks to al-Joumhouria newspaper published Thursday.
Official sources meanwhile told the daily that “the U.S. ambassador’s visit to
Ain el-Tineh and her meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri was part of the relieving
atmosphere, and so was the consultations tour that Saudi Ambassador Walid
Bukhari has begun with political leaders, especially his meeting with Berri
yesterday.”“What remains of the current month of May will be a critical period
dedicated to attempting to reach a final Lebanese presidential settlement,” the
newspaper quoted highly informed sources as saying. An Arab diplomatic source
for his part told al-Joumhouria that he expects “positive developments related
to the presidential file in Lebanon, as a natural outcome of the efforts that
Lebanon’s friends and brothers are exerting in this regard.”
Khoury asks judges not to make statements without prior
approval
Naharnet/May 04/2023
Caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury on Thursday issued a circular calling on
judges to “abide by the legal norms and refrain from engaging in all forms of
media appearances.”He also asked them not to “take any public stance on any
journalistic or electronic platform without obtaining a prior permission from
the relevant authorities.”
Raja Salameh appears before European judicial team
Associated Press/May 04/2023
A European judicial team pressed on with its corruption probe of Lebanon's
embattled Central Bank governor on Thursday, questioning Salameh's brother,
Raja, for the first time. Raja Salameh had not shown up at a session last week,
citing illness. The delegation from France, Germany, and Luxembourg is on its
third visit to Lebanon to interrogate suspects and witnesses in an ongoing
investigation of Gov. Riad Salameh and associates over several financial crimes
and the laundering of some $330 million. The governor faces allegations of
crimes including embezzlement, money laundering and tax evasion in separate
probes in Lebanon and abroad. His brother Raja is accused of complicity. Last
month, the European delegation questioned Riad Salameh about the Central Bank's
assets and investments outside Lebanon, a Paris apartment owned by Salameh, and
Forry Associates Ltd, a brokerage firm owned by his brother.
Raja Salameh is to appear before French prosecutors in mid-May.
Lebanese government stands firm on obtaining data on Syrian
refugees
LBCI/May 04/2023
Lebanon is home to almost 800,000 Syrian refugees who have entered the country
since 2015. Among them are over 500,000 individuals who continue to enter
Lebanon illegally on a daily basis, identifying themselves as displaced persons
fleeing the war in Syria. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
has added 800,000 registered Syrian refugees to the list of displaced persons
since the beginning of the war in Syria. This decision contradicts the Lebanese
government's October 23, 2014, decision to stop registering Syrians in Lebanon
without the approval of Lebanese authorities and according to the standards they
set. However, the UNHCR demanded the Lebanese government hand over a list of
1.66 million Syrian refugees within a two-day deadline, which the agency did not
meet. Instead, the agency handed the data to General Security, the authorized
entity to receive, protect, study, and safeguard the information. The UNHCR
demanded that, in return for handing over the data, the 800,000 refugees
registered after 2015 be added to the list of 860,000 displaced persons
registered before that period and be granted residency in Lebanon and access to
services received by registered displaced individuals. The UNHCR did not settle
for these conditions. The General Security responded to the conditions.
According to LBCI's sources, the Acting Director-General of General Security,
Brigadier General Elias El Baissari, sent a letter to the UNHCR, giving the
agency until Monday to comply with its promises. Furthermore, caretaker Prime
Minister, Najib Mikati, followed the issue and sent a representative to question
the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Imran Riza, about the UNHCR's
conditions, especially since the Lebanese government is not backing down from
its decision.
Thus, the Lebanese authorities want complete, uncompromised, and unconditional
data, and this is not the first time that the UNHCR has withheld data from the
Lebanese state. Years ago, Lebanon submitted a paper of 15 points to the UN
about displaced persons and their numbers, but it was not responded to.
Nevertheless, after this file has gained Lebanese consensus about the need to
address it, the government has not backed down from its decision and will not
withdraw from obtaining the data of the displaced.
Beirut Airport’s number of travelers increases by 36% in
April
LBCI/May 04/2023
The movement at the Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport was characterized
by a remarkable activity and an increase in the number of travelers during
April, especially since this month was punctuated by multiple holidays on the
occasion of the Easter and Eid al-Fitr holidays. The number of passengers who
used the airport increased during April by more than 36 percent compared to what
it was in the same month of the previous year. This brings the total number of
passengers in the first third of 2023 to 1,911,477 passengers, compared to
1,504,304 passengers in the same period in 2022, recording an increase of 27
percent. The airport traffic during April 2023 was distributed as follows: The
number of passengers passing through the airport to and from Lebanon during the
fourth month of 2023 increased by 36.4 percent, recording 543,104 passengers.
The number of arrivals to Lebanon increased by 30.4. percent and reached 281,614
passengers, and the number of passengers at departure increased by 43.72 percent
and recorded 261,014 passengers, while passengers by transit reached 476. In
terms of aircraft movement, the total number of flights of national, Arab, and
foreign airlines using the airport during April amounted to 4,428 flights (an
increase of 23 percent over April 2022), as the number of incoming flights to
Lebanon increased by 23 percent and recorded 2,214 flights. The number of
flights departing from Lebanon increased by 22.9 percent and recorded 2,214
flights.
Mawlawi meets UN's Wronecka, UN's Riza, discusses
coordinatory affairs with Caretaker Minister Nassar
NNA/May 04/2023
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, on
Thursday received in his office at the Ministry, the UN Special Coordinator for
Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka. Discussions touched on the general situation and the
repercussions of the Syrian displacement on Lebanon. Caretaker Minister Mawlawi
then met with UN Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident Coordinator and
Humanitarian Coordinator, Imran Riza, over the Syrian displacement issue and its
repercussions. On the other hand, Mawlawi discussed with Caretaker Minister of
Tourism, Walid Nassar, coordination affairs between the Ministries of Interior
and Tourism, in the presence of former MP Eddy Maalouf. Mawlawi also met with
former MP Mansour Ghanem El-Bon, and discussed with him the general situation
Berri meets Arab clans’ sheikhs’ delegation: We stand
shoulder to shoulder in the face of strife between the sons of one nation
NNA/May 04/2023
HOUSE SPEAKER, NABIH BERRI, ON THURSDAY RECEIVED AT THE SECOND PRESIDENCY IN AIN
EL-TINEH, A DELEGATION OF SHEIKHS OF THE ARAB CLANS FROM THE VARIOUS LEBANESE
REGIONS, AND FROM THE ARAB TRIBES OF KHALDEH, IN THE PRESENCE OF MPS MOHAMMED
SULEIMAN AND MOHAMMED KHAWAJA.
The delegation presented Speaker Berri with the “abaya” of the Arab clans, as a
token of recognition and appreciation for his positions and efforts in national
reunification, calling on the Speaker to intervene and exert further efforts in
order to achieve reconciliation in the Khaldeh events.
Speaker Berri hailed "the high sense of national and patriotic responsibility
embodied by the Arab clans in warding off the strife that some tried to awaken
in Khaldeh."Berri concluded by stressing that Amal Movement stands shoulder to
shoulder with the Arab clans and those with goodwill in confronting strife
between the sons of the one nation.
Lebanon's Serge Nader wins for his sustainable
3D prints in Canada
LBCI/May 4, 2023
Lebanon's Serge Nader is one of the University of Alberta's Campus
Sustainability Leaders Award 2023 winners for his 3D prints. Intrigued by
his curiosity, he made in-house lab accessories, which have positive
environmental impacts, as instead of ordering items from different locations,
and consequently increasing carbon emissions, the lab orders one printing
material. The polymer used to make those accessories comes from
plant-based starches and is industrially compostable, leading to reducing
plastic waste. According to the University of Alberta, Nader also made his
designs open source, meaning that other labs can download and reuse his work.
"These technologies not only make laboratory accessories more affordable, more
available on demand and make the labs be more independent in their logistics,
they also, from a sustainability standpoint, are really impactful with reducing
the need for storage and worldwide shipping — you can get away from all of this
by doing your own thing — just being more independent," said Serge Nader. It is
worth noting that Serge Nader has a Bachelor's Degree, Biology-biochemistry from
the Saint Joseph University of Beirut (USJ) and a Master's Degree in Structure
and Interaction of Macromolecules and Functional Genomics from the same
university. He also obtained his Ph.D. in Structural Biology from Université
Grenoble Alpes and has been working as a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University
of Alberta in Canada.
Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
NNA/May 04/2023
Oil prices in Lebanon have dropped on Thursday as the price of the can of
gasoline (95 octanes) has decreased by LBP 10,000 and (98 octanes) has decreased
by LBP 11,000. The price of diesel has decreased by LBP 9,000, and the gas
canister has decreased by LBP 6,000.
Consequently, the new prices are as follows:
95 octanes: LBP 1,733,000
98 octanes: LBP 1,773,000
Diesel: LBP 1,497,000
Gas: LBP 997,000
LIC Welcomes U.S. Administration Statement
For Immediate Release
Washington, DC-May 3rd, 2023
Regarding the Presidential Vacancy and Candidates
The Lebanese Information Center (LIC) welcomes the statement by the U.S.
Department of State calling for Lebanon’s political leadership to expeditiously
elect a president who can unite the country, enact reforms, and bring
accountability to government. Lebanon has been without a president for six
months following the end of Michel Aoun’s term and urgently needs political
leadership to guide the country out of the ongoing economic and political
crises. The LIC agrees with the statement and appreciates the administration’s
acknowledgement that Lebanon needs a president free of corruption who will bring
accountability and transparency to the government and commit to desperately
needed reforms. In addition to the necessary qualifications mentioned in the
statement, the LIC also calls for a Lebanese president who will defend the
sovereignty of the country and state institutions, respect international
resolutions, and rebuild relationships with the international community. The
next Lebanese president must stand up to foreign and sectarian forces that seek
to undermine the authority of the state and foster instability and insecurity.
Though time is of concern, the quality of the candidate is of critical
importance given the severity of the issues. Lebanon cannot afford to wait
another six years to resolve its issues and avoid further disaster.
**The Lebanese Information Center in the U.S. is the largest grassroots
organization of Americans of Lebanese descent, committed to building a free,
sovereign, and democratic Lebanon for the good of the Lebanese people and in the
interest of the United States of America.
Sit-in in front of Justice Palace rejects
“pressure against judges”
NNA/May 04/2023
"Amwalouna Lana - Our Money is Ours" association and the "Caliber" group on
Thursday carried out a sit-in in front of the Palace of Justice in Beirut, "in
of support of the European delegation, and in rejection against all the
campaigns and pressure exerted against judges." This sit-in coincides with the
Disciplinary Council's issuance of a decision expelling Judge Ghada Aoun from
service.
Lebanese dreams of a new political system are futile for
now
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/May 04/2023
More and more voices across the political spectrum in Lebanon are expressing the
need for a new political system. There is a growing consensus, even among
political foes, that the confessional system no longer works — or, to be
precise, never worked. However, this might all be “philosopher” talk in the
pejorative Arabic sense. These voices — mine included — have no impact on
realpolitik. It is just theory, while others are holding AK-47s and controlling
the gritty backstage political deal-making. But this should not stop people
hoping for or dreaming of change.
Among the dreamers, there are now two main paths for a new Lebanon. To start
with, both aim to put an end to confessionalism. The two paths are the
centralized executive and the federation. In the centralized executive version,
the call is for a universal direct election of the president and the
cancellation of all confessional laws, or the existing pro rata system, through
the establishment of a civil state. In the federal system, it is about
recognizing the various confessions and giving them autonomy and decision-making
power at the local level. And so, we quickly notice that, in Lebanon, even in
dreams there is confrontation.
I will be a cynic and say that the vision of a centralized executive power is in
fact the continuation of the nightmare Lebanon is living. And those who dream of
it are either manipulated or are the unwilling accomplices of those holding the
power and the AK-47s today. Nevertheless, the transition to either system
carries major risks. In the presidential system, the risks are bigger, as it
will ostracize entire smaller minority communities. This could lead to violent
clashes. In the transition to a federation, the risks of secession are real, as
well as the delimitation of zones, which could lead to clashes.
A federation would be a much better solution for Lebanon. It would recognize
each community and celebrate them
The centralized civil system is not the right solution for Lebanon because,
although you can easily cancel confessions in identity documents, you cannot
cancel them in people’s blood. This is the reality. This system would lead to
continuous tensions and eventually would bring back the pro rata system. This is
simply because the executive will seek a consensus and aim to balance
decision-making between all confessions. In the worst scenario of this system,
one confession will take full power and oppress, to differing degrees, all the
others. In fact, despite its claims of canceling confessionalism and making all
citizens equal, this system would solidify that system.
A federation would be a much better solution for Lebanon. It would recognize
each community and celebrate them. It would give each community its own
authority and autonomy. This would avoid the pro rata balancing act that invites
corruption. It would make each political leader accountable in front of their
constituents. They would no longer be able to hide mismanagement by exploiting
the fear of the other. A federation would allow each community to govern itself
on what matters the most to them: education, healthcare, security and much more.
More importantly, it would have the power to shift the country from
confrontation to positive competition.
The main point here is that the presidential system would keep Lebanon as a
victim of external geopolitical shifts. The fight between communities to be the
leading group would never stop. And each community would seek or even beg for
foreign support to protect its interests. Nothing would change and Lebanon would
never reach stability, just as was the case during the various occupations of
the country. Once again, a federation would cancel all of this. There would be
no need for any community to seek protection from the others as they would all
live peacefully side by side. In a federation, they would all unite in the face
of outside threats to protect federal strategic interests. The current crises
have shown that the Lebanese can self-manage and do better when the government
is not involved
Ultimately, little government is good government for Lebanon. The current crises
have shown that the Lebanese can self-manage and do better when the government
is not involved. Moreover, despite the depth of the crisis and the geopolitical
tensions, until now, security events have been limited. This is not due to the
actions of the government or the political leaders, it is because of the actions
of the people.
A Lebanese confederation would hence be a perfect embodiment of what the
Lebanese are. Moreover, the versatility of federations allows for each state or
region to vote on laws and move faster on what matters the most to them, while
the others have a chance to witness this and decide whether or not to follow
suit. It would definitely bring greater protection to each community and
dissipate intra-confessional friction. Let each group have their own councils
and vote on the laws that impact their everyday lives.
However, in the end, whether a strong executive or a federation, this is only
the form and is meaningless without a vision, leadership and strategy, all of
which are missing in Lebanon today. Short of this formulation, both systems are
just useless dreams that will be crushed by those holding the AK-47s. The
Lebanese urgently need to decide what they want their future to be like and
encourage the formulation of a vision that is at the level of the ingenuity of
the people. A good start might be to state what we stand for and not just what
we stand against. Only then will the transition to a new political system be
possible.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of Barbicane, a space-focused investment
syndication platform. He is the CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan
Al-Arabi.
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published
on May 04-05/2023
Israel minister: Iran nuke enrichment could ignite region
ATHENS, Greece (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Israel’s defense minister claimed Thursday that Iran could have enough enriched
uranium for five nuclear weapons, and warned Tehran that proceeding to
weapons-grade enrichment could “ignite the region.” His remarks echoed
international concerns, which have mounted over the past months, on Tehran
enriching uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels. Experts have said
that the Islamic Republic has enough fuel to build “several” atomic bombs if it
chooses. “Make no mistake, Iran will not be satisfied by a single nuclear bomb,”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Thursday during a visit to Athens.
Uranium enriched for use in nuclear power plants is normally below 20%, while
90% enrichment is considered to be weapons grade. “So far, Iran has gained
material enriched to 20% and 60% for five nuclear weapons," Gallant said.
"Iranian progress, enrichment to 90%, would be a grave mistake on Iran’s part
and could ignite the region.”Israel’s leadership argues that Iran can only be
stopped from developing nuclear weapons by the threat of military action, while
the United States publicly favors a return to multilateral diplomatic efforts.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said in March it would restart
inspections and camera-monitoring at some Iranian nuclear facilities after it
reported that particles of highly enriched uranium were found at an underground
nuclear site. In Athens, Gallant was hosted by Greek Defense Minister Nikos
Panagiotopoulos. The two promised to further enhance military cooperation.
Greece last year launched a new international pilot training center, assisted by
Israel and Israeli defense contractor Elbit in a $1.65 billion deal. And last
month, Israel agreed to provide Greece with Spike anti-tank missiles in an
agreement worth $400 million.
Iran Arrests Firm Managers for Backing Labor
Strikes
London - Tehran/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Iranian authorities have arrested managers at companies for backing workers'
strikes in an energy-producing region in the south, Iranian media reported
Wednesday. "A number of managers" were arrested for "having supported the acts
of counter-revolutionary elements" and "organized strikes" at South Pars
projects, AFP quoted Fars news agency as saying. The offshore South Pars field
in the Gulf — the world's largest known gas reserve, which Iran shares with
Qatar — employs some 40,000 workers. More company officials will be arrested "in
the coming days," it added. In April, the authorities said 4,000 of the workers
on strike over pay and work conditions would be replaced. The Iran Labor News
Agency (ILNA) reported that South Pars employees "have continued to put forward
their collective demands," calling for "a 79-percent increase in wages" as well
as an "end to discrimination" and the right to "freedom of association."In 2022,
Iran witnessed several waves of strikes by teachers and bus drivers who
protested low wages and high living costs. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
said on Saturday that some labor protests have been helpful to the country.
"These protests are actually helping the government and the system and making
them understand" the demands of workers, Khamenei said. Since 2018, Iran's
economy has been hit by US-led sanctions and spiraling inflation, along with
record depreciation of the rial against the dollar. Meanwhile, Canada imposed
additional sanctions on Iran on Wednesday over human rights violations in the
country and abroad. The sanctions list one entity and nine people. The listed
entity is Rajaei Prison, which witnessed a record number of executions and is an
example of "the regime’s barbarism and neglect of human rights". Among the nine
people designated by the Canadian government are members of the Morality Police,
and deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in Balochistan.
"We will continue to do everything in our power to respond to the destabilizing
actions of the Iranian regime, which affect not only the Iranian people, but
have implications for world peace and security,” said Canadian Foreign Minister
Melanie Joly.
Iran's Raisi, on Syria visit, urges
anti-Israel unity
Associated Press/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called Thursday for "resistance forces" to unite
against Israel on his second day in Syria -- the first such visit to Tehran's
close ally in over a decade of war. Tehran has long provided logistical and
military support to many factions fighting its arch-foe Israel, including some
Palestinian groups but also Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah -- a major Damascus
ally. Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes against Iran-backed forces
in Syria since the conflict erupted in 2011. While it has rarely commented on
the raids, Israel has repeatedly warned it will not allow Iran to extend its
footprint in its war-torn northern neighbor. During his meetings in Damascus
with what Iran's IRNA news agency called "Palestinian resistance commanders",
Raisi appealed for a united front against Israel. "The unity and cohesion of the
resistance forces, the region and the Islamic world is necessary to speed up the
defeat of the Zionist regime," Raisi said in reference to Israel. "The Islamic
republic always pursues the issue of Palestine as a priority in its foreign
policy, and we believe that all the equations of the Islamic world are defined
under this issue," he was quoted as saying by IRNA. Raisi's two-day visit to
Syria comes weeks after Iran and its arch-rival Saudi Arabia agreed to restore
ties, prompting regional capitals to re-engage with the internationally isolated
governments in Damascus and Tehran. The Iranian president met his Syrian
counterpart Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday, praising him for "achieving victory"
in the country's war.
The Syrian conflict has killed more than 500,000 people and displaced
millions.While the front lines have mostly quietened in recent years, large
parts of the country's north remain outside government control. Iran has long
propped up Damascus with economic and military assistance, helping the Syrian
government claw back most of the territory it lost at the start of the conflict.
The Islamic republic is now positioning itself in a leading role as Assad seeks
to focus on Syria's reconstruction, despite both countries remaining under heavy
Western sanctions. Raisi, who arrived with a high-level ministerial delegation,
also signed memoranda of understanding on "long-term strategic cooperation",
covering fields including in oil, aviation, railways and agriculture. He said on
Wednesday that Iran would "stand by its Syrian brothers in the field of
development and progress".The last Iranian president to visit Damascus was
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in September 2010. Assad has officially visited Tehran twice
since the war broke out, the last time in May 2022.
Microsoft: Iran Accelerates Its Cyber Influence Operations
Worldwide
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
Microsoft warned that Iran is accelerating its cyber-enabled influence
operations to go in tandem with its geopolitical goals worldwide. “Iran
continues to be a significant threat actor, and it is now supplementing its
traditional cyberattacks with a new playbook, leveraging cyber-enabled influence
operations (IO) to achieve its geopolitical aims,” a report published by the
company on Tuesday revealed. Microsoft has detected these efforts rapidly
accelerating since June 2022. Microsoft said it attributed 24 unique
cyber-enabled influence operations to the Iranian government last year compared
to just seven in 2021.
The report added that most of Iran’s cyber-enabled influence operations are
being run by Emennet Pasargad – which is sanctioned by the US Treasury
Department for attempts to undermine the integrity of the 2020 US Presidential
Elections. Though Iran’s techniques may have changed, its targets have not.
These operations remain focused on Israel, prominent Iranian opposition figures
and groups, and the Gulf countries, according to Microsoft. “Iran directed
nearly a quarter (23%) of its cyber operations against Israel between October of
2022 and March of 2023, with the United States, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi
Arabia also bearing the brunt of these efforts.” The goals of its cyber-enabled
IO have included seeking to bolster Palestinian groups that are allied to Iran,
fomenting unrest in Bahrain, and sowing panic and fear among Israeli citizens.
“Iran has also adopted cyber-enabled IO to undercut the momentum of nationwide
protests by leaking information that aims to embarrass prominent regime
opposition figures.”Microsoft added that most of these operations have a
predictable playbook, in which Iran uses a cyber persona to publicize and
exaggerate a low-sophistication cyberattack, using the language of the target
audience. “New Iranian influence techniques include their use of SMS messaging
and victim impersonation to enhance the effectiveness of their amplification”,
the report added.
Iranian Official Says Saudi Trade Delegation to Visit
Tehran Soon
Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
A Saudi trade delegation will visit Iran soon to attend a business exhibition,
said Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari on Wednesday.
Running from May 7-10, Iran Expo 2023 is an exhibition focused on Iranian export
potential and sponsored by the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran and the
Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Trade. "In the next few days, a trade
delegation from Saudi Arabia will come to Iran accompanied by a deputy minister
to attend the Iran Expo exhibition," Reuters quoted Safari as telling Iranian
media. In a mediated agreement brokered by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran
announced on March 10 their decision to restore diplomatic ties and reopen their
respective embassies and consulates within two months at most. This development
was broadly welcomed by the Arab world and the international community. Iranian
Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani announced that Iranian missions in
Saudi Arabia have taken their first steps to resume diplomatic activity in the
Kingdom.
IAEA Affirms Reinstalling Surveillance Cameras in Iran
Vienna - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed the reinstallation of
surveillance cameras in Iran, as part of the recent deal between the IAEA
director-general and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. IAEA's spokesman
Fredrik Dahl told the German news agency (dpa) that work was “underway” to
reinstall surveillance cameras at several sites. Yet, he didn’t point to the
number of surveillance cameras or the sites where they will be reinstalled. The
Washington-based Arms Control Agency reported that IAEA began reinstalling
cameras at certain nuclear facilities which approach the nuclear threshold. In
early March, IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi reached an agreement
with Iranian officials to restart surveillance cameras at several nuclear sites
and increase inspections at the Fordow facility. Iranian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on Monday that two delegations from the IAEA have
visited Tehran following the recent deal, adding that “cooperation with them
continues step by step”. Last June, Iran called on the IAEA to dismantle the
cameras at its nuclear sites due to tension regarding the nuclear deal. Iran
wishes to leave a good impression by allowing the reinstallation of the cameras
before the IAEA Board of Governors' meeting in June. The cameras don’t grant the
IAEA a better view of the nuclear facilities. Although there is footage from the
time before the removal of the cameras, the international inspectors failed to
access the data since Tehran abandoned the protocol of the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in February 2021.Tehran said it would turn
over the data collected from the cameras to the IAEA if the 2015 nuclear deal
was restored.
Israel seized Binance crypto accounts to 'thwart' Islamic
State, document shows
Tom Wilson and Angus Berwick/LONDON (Reuters)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Israel has seized around 190 crypto accounts at crypto exchange Binance since
2021, including two it said were linked to Islamic State and dozens of others it
said were owned by Palestinian firms connected to the Islamist Hamas group,
documents released by the country's counter-terror authorities show. Israel's
National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing (NBCTF) on Jan. 12 confiscated two
Binance accounts and their contents, one of the documents on the NBCTF's website
showed. The seizure was to "thwart the activity" of Islamic State and "impair
its ability to further its goals," the NBCTF said on its website. The NBCTF
document, which has not been previously reported, did not give any details on
the value of the crypto seized, nor how the accounts were connected to Islamic
State. Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by trading volumes, did not
respond to Reuters' calls and emails seeking comment. Israel's defence ministry,
which is responsible for the NBCTF, did not immediately respond to a Reuters
request for comment. Under Israeli law, the country's defence minister can order
the seizure and confiscation of assets that the ministry deems related to
terrorism. Regulators globally have long called for tighter controls on crypto
exchanges to prevent illegal activities, from money laundering to the financing
of terrorism. The seizures by Israel's NBCTF highlight how governments are
targeting crypto companies in their efforts to prevent illegal activity. Binance,
founded in 2017 by CEO Changpeng Zhao, says on its website it reviews
information requests from governments and law enforcement agencies on a
case-by-case basis, disclosing information as legally required. Binance has also
said it checks users for connections to terrorism and has "continued to invest
tremendous resources to enhance its compliance program," it told U.S. senators
in March in response to their requests for information on Binance's regulatory
compliance and finances.
MILITANT GROUP
Islamic State emerged in Syria after Iraq's civil war. At its 2014 peak, it
controlled a third of Iraq and Syria, before being beaten back. Now forced
underground, Islamic State militants continue to wage insurgent attacks. The
U.S. Treasury said in a report last year that Islamic State had received crypto
donations it later converted to cash, accessing funds via crypto trading
platforms. The Treasury did not specify which platforms and declined to comment
for this article. The owner of the two Islamic State-linked Binance accounts
seized by Israel was a 28-year old Palestinian called Osama Abuobayda, the NBCTF
document shows. Abuoyada did not respond to requests for comment via email
addresses and a phone number listed in the NBCTF document. In a series of
investigations last year, Reuters reported that Binance intentionally kept weak
anti-money laundering controls. Since 2017, Binance has processed over $10
billion in payments for criminals and companies seeking to evade U.S. sanctions,
Reuters reported. Binance disputed the articles, calling the illicit-fund
calculations inaccurate and the descriptions of its compliance controls
"outdated." Two men suspected by Germany of assisting an Islamist gunman who
killed four people in Vienna in 2020 used Binance, a letter from German police
to the company said. Islamic State later claimed responsibility for the attack.
Binance shared information with the police on the clients, its legal
representatives said last year. Reuters could not independently establish this.
MONEY EXCHANGERS
Nearly all of the 189 Binance accounts seized by Israel since Dec. 2021 were
owned by three Palestinian currency exchange firms, the NBCTF documents showed.
The three are designated by Israel as "terrorist organizations," according to a
list on the NBCTF's website, for their alleged involvement in the transfer of
funds by Hamas, which runs the Palestinian territory of Gaza. Last month, the
NBCTF said in a document it had seized crypto worth over 500,000 shekels
($137,870) from over 80 Binance accounts belonging to the three Gaza-based
companies, Al Mutahadun For Exchange, Dubai Company for Exchange and Al Wefaq
Co. For Exchange. The accounts were the property of "terrorist organizations" or
used for a "severe terror crime," the document said, without elaborating. Local
media outlets in Israel previously reported the April seizures. A person with
direct knowledge of Al Mutahadun said it did not work "at all" with crypto or
cooperate with Hamas. "We are a money exchange company. Israeli allegations are
all lies and are foundless," the person said. Al Mutahadun was designated as a
"terrorist organisation" in May 2021 by Israel, the NBCTF list shows. Al Wefaq
and Dubai Co. did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment via email and
WhatsApp. Binance did not respond to Reuters' questions on the accounts owned by
the three currency exchange companies. Hamas does not have any connection with
the money exchange companies, spokesperson Hazem Qassem said. The allegations of
links to the companies were an attempt by Israel to "justify its economic war
against Gaza and its people," Qassem said. Hamas's armed wing said last week it
would stop receiving funds in bitcoin after an increase in "hostile" activity
against donors. Binance, its CEO Zhao and its former compliance chief Samuel Lim
are facing civil charges from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
for "wilful evasion" of U.S. commodities laws. Zhao has called the charges an
"incomplete recitation of the facts." In its complaint, the CFTC said Lim
received information in 2019 on Hamas' transactions at Binance. Lim told a
colleague that "terrorists" usually send small sums of funds, as "large sums
constitute money laundering," according to the CFTC complaint. Lim has not
publicly responded to the charges. He did not respond to messages sent via
Telegram seeking comment for this article.($1 = 3.6266 shekels)
Arab foreign ministers to discuss Syria,
Sudan in Cairo
CAIRO (Reuters)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Arab foreign ministers will meet at the Arab League in Cairo on Sunday to
discuss Syria, a League spokesman said, amid a regional push to normalise ties
with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a decade of estrangement. The
foreign ministers will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to address the conflict
that erupted in Sudan last month, according to Gamal Roshdy, a spokesman for the
Arab League's secretary general. Syria's membership in the Arab League was
suspended in 2011 after a bloody crackdown on street protests against Assad that
led to a devastating civil war, and many Arab states pulled their envoys out of
Damascus. Recently, several Arab states including Saudi Arabia and Egypt have
re-engaged with Syria in high-level visits and meetings, though some, including
Qatar, remain opposed to full normalisation without a political solution to
Syria's conflict. Arab states have been trying to reach consensus on whether to
invite Assad to an Arab League summit on May 19 in Riyadh to discuss the pace of
normalising ties and on what terms Syria could be allowed back. Saudi Arabia
long resisted restoring relations with Assad but said after its recent
rapprochement with Iran - Syria's key regional ally - that a new approach was
needed with Damascus.
Iranian president meets Palestinian officials
in Syria
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Iran’s president met senior Palestinian officials in Damascus and expressed his
country’s support to them Thursday as Tehran and Syria signed a series of
agreements. Damascus-based Palestinian official Khaled Abdul-Majid told The
Associated Press that the delegation briefed Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi on the
situation in the West Bank, Jerusalem and Gaza Strip. Iran has been a main
backer of some Palestinian factions supplying them with weapons and money. “The
Palestinian leaders thanked Iran for its support to the resistance and the
Palestinian cause,” Abdul-Majid, who attended the talks, said after the meeting.
He added that Raisi confirmed to the Palestinian officials, including top
leaders from the militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, that Iran will
continue supporting the Palestinians. Raisi began a two-day visit to Syria
during which the two countries signed a series of long-term cooperation
agreements on oil and other sectors to bolster economic ties between the two
allies. Raisi held talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad and visited holy
shrines for Shiite Muslims near the capital Damascus. Tehran has been a main
backer of Assad’s government since a 2011 uprising turned into full-blown civil
war and has played an instrumental role in turning the tide of the conflict in
his favor. Iran has sent scores of military advisers and thousands of
Iran-backed fighters from around the Middle East to Syria to fight on Assad’s
side. Tehran has also been an economic lifeline for Assad, sending fuel and
credit lines worth billions of dollars. Syrian government forces have regained
control of large parts of the country in recent years, with the help of its two
main allies — Russia and Iran. With Arab governments that once advocated Assad’s
downfall now slowly making amends with Damascus, Iran appears to be hoping to
reap the rewards for its decades-long support of the Syrian president with
investment and economic opportunities to help alleviate its own ailing economy.
Syrian state media said Raisi and Assad signed agreements and memorandums of
understanding related to several sectors, including oil, agriculture, railways
and free trade zones. Iran’s state-owned railway company has long aspired to
expand its network through neighboring Iraq and Syria, linking it to the Syrian
port of Latakia on the Mediterranean Sea to boost trade. Syria’s opposition and
Tehran critics see this as another Iran attempt at growing its political
influence. The deals are important also for Syria, whose economy has hit an
all-time low over the past decade, with spiraling inflation, a currency plunge
and rampant power cuts. The last Iranian president to visit Syria was President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2010.
Forces kill 3 Palestinians behind deaths of
British-Israelis
NABLUS, West Bank (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Israeli troops on Thursday killed three Palestinian militants wanted in
connection with a shooting attack that killed a British-Israeli woman and two of
her daughters, the Israeli military said, the latest bloodshed in a relentless
wave of violence. In a rare daytime incursion launched as residents were
starting their day, the military said forces entered the heart of the flashpoint
city of Nablus and raided an apartment where the men were located. Troops and
the suspects exchanged fire and the three men were killed. The military said the
men were behind an attack last month on a car near a Jewish West Bank settlement
that killed Lucy Dee, the British-Israeli mother and two of her daughters, Maya
and Rina. Leo Dee, the woman's widower, told The Associated Press he was
“comforted” by the news of the militants' death. In a statement after the raid,
the Hamas militant group said the three men, identified as Hassan Qatnani, Moaz
al-Masri and Ibrahim Jabr, were its members and the group claimed responsibility
for the April attack. In a separate incident Thursday near the West Bank town of
Hawara, a 20-year-old soldier shot and killed 26-year-old Palestinian woman who
had stabbed and lightly wounded him.
In Nablus, Israeli shells ripped through the roof of the gunmen’s safe house in
the heart of Nablus' Old City, leaving nothing but twisted metal, cement blocks
and torn mattresses still stained with blood scattered over the rubble. A couple
of hours after the army withdrew, young men collected scores of ejected bullet
shell casings from the narrow alleys. Nablus, the West Bank's commercial capital
and second-largest city, has been the scene of repeated Israeli raids over the
past year, but few have been conducted during the day because of the increased
risk of friction with local residents. Residents have been caught up in previous
fighting. Manal Abu Safiyeh, 57, said she woke up at 7 a.m. to the sounds of the
Israeli army vehicles rumbling through the city. Although it wasn’t new to her
after a year of intense violence in the Old City, the gunfire sounded closer
than she’d ever heard it before. An explosion suddenly blew up her neighbor’s
house, she said, killing three people. She said she didn’t know much about her
neighbors other than that Ibrahim Jabr had cancer.
A man who identified himself only as Kareem for fear of reprisals said that he
spotted older men and a woman in a long overgarment worn by Muslim women who he
had never seen before walking through the limestone alleys and knew instantly
they were Israeli special forces. He ran to his house and sheltered there until
he heard the gunfire stop. “So many men from the city have been killed,” he
said. “We are used to these raids. That’s the story of life in Nablus.”After the
military pulled out, dozens of masked men paraded through the city while
shooting into the air, waving Palestinian flags as onlookers honked in support.
A sea of mourners at the men's funeral chanted “God is great.” The violence in
Nablus comes at a particularly sensitive time in the region, days after a
prominent Palestinian prisoner who was staging a lengthy hunger strike over his
detention died in Israeli custody. His death set off a volley of rockets from
militants in Gaza and Israeli airstrikes in the coastal enclave that killed one
man. The deadly attack last month on the Israeli car shocked Israelis because in
an instant it reduced the Dee family from seven members to four. Hundreds of
people packed the funerals and the family's father, Leo, has been a recurring
figure in Israeli media, saying he bears no hatred toward the killers of his
family and calling for national unity amid a deep societal rift. “We’re grateful
to God that this was done in a way that protected the lives of the soldiers and
caused minimal if no civilian casualties, as far as we know. And of course,
that’s very important to us that innocent Palestinians were not injured in this
operation,” Leo Dee told The Associated Press from his home in the Jewish West
Bank settlement of Efrat. Israeli officials said the raid showed attackers would
be hunted down eventually. “Our message to those who harm us, and those who want
to harm us, is that whether it takes a day, a week or a month – you can be
certain that we will settle accounts with you,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said in a statement. Israel has been staging near-nightly arrest raids
into West Bank villages, towns and cities for more than a year in an operation
prompted by a wave of Palestinian attacks against Israelis last year. Israel
says the raids are meant to dismantle militant networks and thwart future
attacks. The Palestinians see the attacks as further entrenchment of Israel's
56-year, open-ended occupation of lands they seek for a future independent
state. Israel captured those territories — the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the
Gaza Strip — in the 1967 Mideast war. Some 250 Palestinians have been killed by
Israeli fire since the raids were launched. Israel says most have been
militants, but stone-throwing youth and people not involved in the
confrontations have also been killed. The raids have been met by a surge in
Palestinian attacks. Since last spring, nearly 50 people have been killed in
Palestinian attacks against Israelis.
U.S. Blasts 'Ludicrous' Russian Claim Of
Plotting Putin Assassination Attempt
Marita Vlachou/HuffPost/May 4, 2023
John Kirby, the National Security Council coordinator for strategic
communications, on Thursday denied Russia’s allegation that the U.S. was behind
a drone attack it said was intended to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Dmitry Peskov, a Putin spokesperson, said the U.S. was “undoubtedly” responsible
for what Moscow has described as a “terrorist attack.”“Mr. Peskov is lying,”
Kirby told “CNN This Morning.” “It’s a ludicrous claim. The United States had
nothing to do with this.” Kirby added that the U.S. is still unclear on the
details of the incident. Unnamed U.S. officials told Politico they are working
to determine whether the attack was orchestrated by Kyiv or a pro-Ukraine rogue
group, or whether it was a false flag operation by the Kremlin. “But I can
assure you the United States had no role in it whatsoever,” Kirby told CNN. “We
neither encourage nor do we enable Ukraine to strike outside Ukraine’s
borders.”The New York Times verified footage showing two explosions within 15
minutes above the Kremlin overnight Wednesday. The Kremlin said the incident was
“a planned terrorist act and an attempt on the life of the president of
Russia.”In his press conference Thursday, Peskov alleged Washington masterminded
the attack, without offering evidence. “Attempts to disown this, both in Kyiv
and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous,” the Kremlin
spokesperson said. “We know very well that decisions about such actions, about
such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv but in Washington.” Moscow
previously claimed Ukraine was responsible for the attack. Kyiv has denied
involvement. “I’ve seen the reports. I can’t in any way validate them. We simply
don’t know,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday of Russia’s
allegations about Ukraine’s involvement. “I would take anything coming out of
the Kremlin with a very large shaker of salt, so let’s see.”
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and UN to discuss
grain deal on Friday
ISTANBUL (Reuters)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Technical personnel from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations will
meet on Friday to discuss a deal that allows the exports of Ukrainian grains on
the Black Sea, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said. The evacuation of
Turkish-flagged ships and grain shipments from Black Sea ports as part of the
deal will be discussed, Akar said. Ankara is working to extend the deal that
will expire on May 18. Friday's meeting would be technical and it would be
followed up by a deputy ministers' meeting next week, a Turkish defence ministry
statement cited Akar as saying. "We continue our efforts to ensure that the
grain initiative continues in a fast, safe, and planned manner. We got the
impression from discussions that these efforts will produce positive results,"
Akar said. The United Nations and Turkey brokered what was described as a
package deal in July last year - the safe resumption of Ukraine's Black Sea
grain exports and a U.N. commitment to help Russian shipments of grain and
fertilizer. Russia has a list of demands it wants met for continuation of the
Black Sea pact, which the U.N. said helps tackle a global food crisis aggravated
by Moscow's war in Ukraine.
Details in the drone incident the Kremlin says aimed to
assassinate Putin 'don't quite add up.' Experts have 3 theories on what
happened.
Mia Jankowicz,Sophia Ankel,Ryan Pickrell/ Business Insider/May 4/2023
Russia claimed Wednesday that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin with a drone
attack at the Kremlin. Experts say there are some things that "don't quite add
up." They came up with three theories on what might have happened based on what
little is known. Security cameras captured striking footage of two drones, one
of which can be seen exploding on video, above the hardened Kremlin citadel this
week.
Russian officials claimed the overnight drone incident was an attempt by Kyiv to
assassinate its leader, but with little evidence linking it to the drones.
Ukraine says it wasn't them. So who was responsible?
In a war rife with propaganda, experts told Insider that they see hallmarks of
Ukraine's long-range drone attacks and also of Russia's staged attempts to
justify dangerous escalations to try to break the military stalemate. If it was
a Ukrainian attack, it would suggest its leaders risked a major escalation with
a poorly executed plan, with too few explosives and Putin not there anyway. And
then there's the questions about how the drones got so close to the seat of
power in one of the world's most defended capitols. There are a number of things
in this mystery that still don't make sense or simply don't add up.
Video from the incident shows one of the drones explode and rain down flaming
debris over the Kremlin, potentially after being intercepted by Russian
defenses. It also shows what appears to be two people on the roof of the
building for an unexplained purpose.
Blaming Ukraine, the Kremlin characterized the incident Wednesday as a "planned
terrorist act and an attempt on the president's life," though there was no
actual threat to Putin, given that he was not there at the time. The Kremlin
said Russia "reserves the right to take retaliatory measures," but since Russia
is already waging war in Ukraine and striking its population centers with
long-range missiles, it is unclear how Moscow might escalate.
Ukraine denied any involvement in the strike, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
saying: "We don't attack Putin or Moscow."
But experts told Insider that despite bold statements from both countries, much
remains uncertain. "There is a lot we still don't know about this strike," said
Samuel Bendett, a Center for Naval Analyses expert on Russian defense and
drones.
James Patton Rogers, a military historian and adviser to NATO on drones and
warfare, said that "there's a few things that don't quite add up in this
situation."
Bendett, for instance, noted that "it seems strange" that the unmanned aircraft
managed to fly so close to the Kremlin complex, seemingly evading most of
Moscow's layered air defenses. These defenses, especially for critical targets
like the Kremlin, have been bolstered since Russia's full-scale invasion of
Ukraine, but, that being said, questions have come up about Russian force
protection capabilities.
Emphasizing that their thoughts at this stage are highly speculative at best,
the experts outlined three possible scenarios that could explain Wednesday's
dramatic events in the Russian capital.
Scenario 1: Ukraine sends a warning For starters, there's the possibility
Ukraine was behind the attack, as the Russians claim. They certainly have ample
motive and assets.
Ukraine has previously denied activities in Russia or on Russian-occupied
territory only to later acknowledge involvement, such as when its forces struck
Russian military targets in Crimea last summer. And though they didn't claim
responsibility, there have also been strikes on military bases deep in Russian
territory attributed to Ukraine. So Ukraine's denial of responsibility is being
taken with a grain of salt by some observers. "One explanation could be that it
was launched by Ukraine to demonstrate the increased ability to launch deep
precision strikes at one of the world's most secure and reinforced targets,"
wrote Patton Rogers on Twitter. The type of drone used is still an open
question, but none of potential models experts flagged for Insider rule Ukraine
out as a suspect.
Dr. Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at
King's College London, said, based on observing its flight pattern in the video,
that it could be a small Chinese-made quadcopter, a fairly ubiquitous system.
Bendett identified other possibilities as the Chinese-made Mugin-5 or the
Ukrainian PD-1.
Both Patton Rogers and Bendett told Insider that it is feasible the drone used
could be the UJ-22, a fixed-wing drone often used by Ukrainian forces. Bendett
said the "UJ-22 has a long range and can potentially reach Moscow."The UJ-22 is
capable of autonomously flying around 500 miles towards a pre-set target. Its
ability to fly comparatively low, and slowly, would potentially help it evade
some radar, Patton Rogers said. Social media imagery suggests that the
same model was used in an attempted drone strike on a Gazprom site near Moscow
in February, as The Guardian reported at the time.
"One hypothesis — and it is a hypothesis because we don't know the details —
could be that that strike a couple of months ago has allowed Ukraine to see what
the first, or indeed the second layer of air defense for Russia consists of,"
Patton Rogers told Insider.
But even if Ukraine were behind it, the likelihood of it being a serious attempt
on Putin's life seems small, he said. "If it was truly an assassination attempt
as opposed to a show of strength, then the payload seems rather small from the
explosions that we've seen," Patton Rogers said, pointing to the relatively
small blast seen in the video, suggesting its explosive payload was likely too
small to penetrate a reinforced building. "It would be odd to send in just one
or two of these systems and to give away the element of surprise without knowing
exactly where Putin was," he added. Miron agreed that this would likely be more
of a signal — to say that "even the Kremlin is vulnerable" after Russia has
repeatedly bombarded Ukraine. "You could interpret it as a sort of warning," she
said, noting that "next time it might be more explosive, or a swarm of drones."
Scenario 2: Russia was behind it
The signs are also there: Putin was never at risk. The iconic building suffered
minimal damage. And politicians immediately seized on this to argue that Russia
itself is under attack. Patton Rogers told Insider that it's possible the strike
and the accompanying rhetoric was orchestrated by Russia to justify a possible
assassination attack on Ukraine's Zelenskyy. Russia has engaged in so-called
false flag actions to justify military action, and Russian rhetoric and actions
during and just before the start of the Ukraine war repeatedly set off alarm
bells abroad. Casting doubt on Russia's accusations, US Secretary of State
Antony Blinken said Wednesday that Russian allegations often have to be taken
with "a very large shaker of salt." Claiming that Ukraine tried to assassinate
Putin would potentially "open up a new norm in the war," Patton Rogers said. To
be sure, Russia has repeatedly tried — and failed — to capture or eliminate
Zelenskyy since the war started more than a year ago, though perhaps Russia now
plans to pursue a decapitation strategy more aggressively. Presidential adviser
Mikhail Podolyak told local media last year that the Ukrainian leader had
survived more than a dozen assassination attempts. Senior US officials,
including CIA Director Bill Burns, were also aware of these plots. That doesn't
rule out a false-flag operation, but it may mean a different motive. US
intelligence said last year that a group of Russian operatives were conducting a
false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, which would offer Moscow potential
justification to mobilize more troops. On Twitter Wednesday, presidential
adviser Podolyak said "Russia is clearly preparing a large-scale terrorist
attack." Another potential motivation would be to bolster popular support for
the war, Miron said. "Russia needs some sort of justification for why they are
continuing to stay in Ukraine," she said. "And so this has a message for the
domestic populace to say, 'Look how dangerous Ukraine is. They're even trying to
kill Putin.'"no drone zone sign near Kremlin in Moscow Russia
Scenario 3: The work of anti-Putin Russians
"A third option could be that this has nothing to do with the Ukrainian military
at all," said Patton Rogers, raising the possibility that dissident groups in
Russia were responsible. Podolyak made pretty much this exact claim in a tweet,
saying the attack "can only indicate the guerilla activities of local resistance
forces. As you know, drones can be bought at any military store." There have
been multiple reports of attacks on critical infrastructure and assassination
attempts throughout Russia's war in Ukraine, some of which have been claimed by
various dissident groups. Russia's mobilization of hundreds of thousands of
troops last fall catalyzed resistance to Putin's regime, but most of their
attacks have come against mobilization centers run by the Russian defense
ministry. Patton Rogers said he hasn't "seen any indication" that such groups
have the capacity to use drones in their attacks. "So that would be a leap of
imagination based on the empirical data that we have at this moment in time," he
said. Miron also acknowledged this possibility but pointed out that Moscow is
highly secure with facial recognition cameras, which would be a strong deterrent
for a local trying to launch and control a strike drone, better yet, two of
them.
"Such an act would mean that the probability of this person being caught would
be very, very high," she said. "I guess we'll never know the truth," Miron
concluded. "Maybe if documents get declassified in a hundred years, then we'll
know what exactly happened."
In Ukraine’s forests, fighters race to prepare for next
push
SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL UKRAINE (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
The fighters depart at dawn, single-file, rifles slung, compasses in hand, and
disappear like chameleons into the lush greenery of central Ukraine’s dense
forests. They’re training for a long-anticipated campaign that Ukraine hopes
will shift the momentum of its war with Russia. It’s a crash course in new
assault tactics for the National Guard squad, a mix of volunteers whose ages
range from 22 to 51. The squad is part of a brigade that’s been chosen to
prepare for a counteroffensive, and it’s had just a few months to train on new
skills and incorporate new recruits. By their own admission, the servicemen have
outdated weapons, and many feared not enough training or resources. But they
said when the time comes, they will be ready to fight. The Associated Press
joined a unit of the Stalevy Kordon or Steel Border, a brigade of Ukraine’s
National Guard. Over a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, the war’s front lines
have been all but static for months, with Russian forces holding nearly a fifth
of the country. The U.S. and other allies have boosted Ukraine’s arsenal with
modern weaponry, but critical shortages of ammunition and manpower persist. The
squad’s men, and its leaders, have no idea when or where the counteroffensive
will begin. But they know they haven’t got long to prepare. “We are preparing
for big actions right now. No one will tell us what they are. We get an order —
maybe tomorrow, maybe in one month, we don’t know — to go to point ‘X,'” said
one of the squad’s leaders, known by his call sign Grunwald. “We are preparing
every day.” The unit spoke to the AP on the condition that they be identified
only by first names or call signs and that the region where the trainings are
taking place not be named. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said
preparations for the advance “are coming to an end.”
Details beyond that are scarce.
“As soon as it is God’s will, the weather and the commanders’ decision, we will
do it,” Reznikov added in a online briefing on Friday. In the forest, the
servicemen tread carefully, the earth crunching underfoot as their eyes and ears
stay alert for signs of enemy drones or vehicles passing by. Every few minutes
they halt to assess unusual sounds, crouching low and ready to shoot. Serhii, a
former airport immigration officer, chain smokes and checks his compass every
few meters. They were supposed to go 8 kilometers (about 5 miles) over two
hours, but they have been walking for nearly three hours already. They stop for
a break under the shade of giant pines. Roma, among the youngest fighters there,
is worried. “I think we went too far,” he said. The day’s test, prepared by
Grunwald, contains multiple elements: Move through the thick woodlands
undetected, launch drones to uncover exact enemy coordinates, pass the
coordinates to the artillery unit, and then dive in for the assault. Most
important, the fighters must not be seen. One small error, and the entire
operation — and squad — is lost. To prepare for the possibility of Russian GPS
jamming, they’re using only compasses to navigate. Russia has spent years
building up high-power jamming systems capable of emitting radio waves to spoof
or throw off GPS navigation. The traditional compass can’t be jammed. But it’s
harder to use. A single degree of compass error could throw the squad 100 meters
(yards) off course. The squad must learn how to reach the target despite this.
When squad commander Mazhor — a call sign meaning “rich guy” — presents the
plan, one fighter scoffs. “He thinks that one person is a robot capable of
assaulting a trench, securing the enemy’s logistics hub, capturing an airport,
stealing an MiG jet and landing it in Moscow, right?” Ihor said. “This is a war
of artillery and drones,” said Grunwald. But the unit does not have enough of
either. The fighters carry old rifles and use simple quadcopter drones for
reconnaissance missions. Grunwald is currently trying to raise money to buy more
advanced drones that would be easier to use, ideally ones that can carry bombs.
Squad members often bring up the limits of their training. Some tell Mazhor his
directives would be confusing on a real battlefield. They criticize comrades for
not being more vigilant. But every serviceman asked said he'd be ready when
ordered into battle. “At beginning of war, we didn’t know anything, but now we
are more experienced,” said Serhii. “All these trainings are making us sharper.
We will be ready.“After a long detour, the squad members eventually find their
way to the point where the reconnaissance drone is launched to pinpoint enemy
positions. The coordinates are passed to the mortar unit.
“Victory in five minutes,” said Serhii, speaking into a walkie-talkie. In the
end, they emerged after eight hours, having trekked 18 kilometers (11 miles)
through swamp, dirt and brush. The coordinates they sent were a little off,
missing the key targets in the enemy position. “The personnel completed the
objective to 90%,” said Mazhor. In a real battle, an operation like this takes
days, with painstaking planning done in advance. “They were disoriented at some
point, they went a bit off course.”“A 10% mistake,” he added. “As the unit
commander, I think 10% is a very good result.”
US envoy to UN urges Brazil to see Ukrainian
side to the war
Anthony Boadle/BRASILIA (Reuters)May 4, 2023
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield has encouraged
Brazil to include Ukraine in any efforts to negotiate an end to "Russia's war of
aggression," she said on Thursday at the end of a visit to the South American
country. Thomas-Greenfield said she expressed U.S. disappointment in Brasilia
over the statements made regarding the war, referring to President Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva's comments calling on the West to stop arming Ukraine to allow
peace talks to start. "We are not telling Brazil not to engage on peace," the
ambassador told a news conference. "What we said is that any engagement has to
take Ukraine into account, and it cannot be a negotiation based on rewarding
Russia for taking territory during their unprovoked war on Ukraine," she said.
Thomas-Greenfield said she encouraged Brazilian officials to visit Ukraine and
confirmed that Lula's foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, plans to travel to
Kyiv though he gave no date. "My assumption is that it is going be soon," she
told reporters. Fighting climate change, defending democracy and promoting
racial equality and inclusion were on her agenda of discussions with Brazilian
officials during the three-day visit that included a trip to former colonial
capital Salvador in the northern state of Bahia, which she called "the heart of
Black Brazil." The relations between the two largest democracies in the Western
Hemisphere are "enduring and built on shared values," she said.
Thomas-Greenfield recalled that at the United Nations Brazil supported an early
U.N. resolution in the General Assembly condemning the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, and more recently a U.N. peace resolution.
U.S. tries to stop war between Armenia,
Azerbaijan in already volatile Eastern Europe
Tracy Wilkinson/ Los Angeles Times/May 4, 2023
The Biden administration is hosting risky peace talks this week between bitter
South Caucasus rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan, hoping to avert a second major war
in Eastern Europe with the two sides far apart.
The talks — the first to bring together the foreign ministers of the two
countries in a room for multiple days — started Sunday night and are scheduled
to end Thursday. U.S. officials have been tight-lipped about whether any
progress has been made. “We remain committed to promoting a peaceful future for
the South Caucasus region,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said on
Wednesday. “We believe that peace between these two countries is possible. We
believe that there is not a military solution to this.”
But military actions have overshadowed diplomatic gestures in recent months. The
two former Soviet republics have disputed territory for years. Fighting in 2020
killed nearly 7,000 soldiers, and deadly skirmishes broke out again just last
month. The crux of the dispute is a breakaway enclave of territory within
Azerbaijan that is populated by ethnic Armenians and controlled by pro-Armenian
separatists. The contested region is known to Azerbaijan as Nagorno-Karabakh,
and to Armenians as Artsakh, a mountainous area slightly larger than Rhode
Island. Russia, the European Union, Turkey and even Iran have had their fingers
in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict at one time or another. The United States
stepped into the fray late last year when Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken,
on the margins of the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, pulled together
his counterparts, Ararat Mirzoyan of Armenia and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Jeyhun Bayramov, for an initial contact. Blinken is overseeing this week’s talks
with Mirzoyan and Bayramov, who have consistently appeared somber in photographs
released from the meeting site just outside Washington.
Ahead of the meetings, Blinken spoke with the top leaders of both countries,
urging diplomacy but also scolding Azerbaijan for blocking access to
Nagorno-Karabakh by setting up a checkpoint along the Lachin corridor, the lone
land route between Armenia and the disputed enclave.
Armenia claims the restricted access has denied the population food, medicine
and other humanitarian needs. "We have not parsed our words about the need for
the free flow of traffic and people and commerce through the Lachin corridor,"
Patel said. "That continues to be the case." The U.S. is often seen as favoring
Armenia, primarily because of support in Congress for large Armenian American
constituencies in Southern California and elsewhere.
But some U.S.-based pro-Armenia activists criticize the Biden administration for
continued military aid to Azerbaijan and what they consider to be insufficient
humanitarian aid for the Nagorno-Karabakh region. “For our government to truly
act as an honest broker, they must stop military aid to the aggressor,” Aram
Hamparian, executive director of the Armenian National Committee of America,
said. He was not optimistic about the outcome of this week’s meetings. The
Azerbaijan Embassy in Washington did not return telephone calls seeking comment.
Alliances in the conflict have shifted over the years. Initially, Russia backed
majority-Christian Armenia over majority-Muslim Azerbaijan, which had the
support of Turkey.But Russia is now bogged down in its disastrous war on Ukraine
and less able to supply Armenia with weapons and other material support,
analysts say. Armenia also came away from the fighting in 2020 with heavy losses
and was forced to cede some territory to Azerbaijan under the terms of a
Russia-brokered cease-fire agreement.
A report by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence late last
year predicted Azerbaijan would be the “country most likely to renew large-scale
conflict” in an effort to “consolidate and expand the gains” from 2020.
“Armenia is less likely to initiate fighting because of the deteriorated state
of its military in the aftermath of the 2020 conflict,” the report said. “The
Armenian Armed Forces suffered heavy equipment and personnel losses during the
conflict in 2020 and have been unable to reconstitute because of funding and
procurement issues.”That may make Armenia more willing to compromise, analysts
say, despite what some perceive as having the U.S. in its corner. While U.S.
officials have not discussed details of the meetings, reports in Armenian and
Azerbaijan media suggest the two countries will sign a “normalization” pact,
which would open the way to renewed ties and broader agreements.
Norway oil fund to back climate resolution at refiner
Valero's AGM
LBCI/May 4, 2023
Norway's $1.4 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest stock market
investor, said on Thursday it will vote in favor of a shareholder resolution
calling on US refiner Valero Energy (VLO.N) to issue a report on climate goals.
The vote on a plan for Valero to release short-, medium- and long-term reduction
targets for greenhouse gas emissions was called by a shareholder asking the
company to align with the Paris climate agreement's goal of limiting global
warming. Valero's board has recommended that the motion should be rejected,
saying that the requested targets could only be met by refinery closures and
that the company will instead run a "resilient" operation pursuing low-carbon
fuel production. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which operates the
Norwegian fund, said last year that it plans to take a tougher line on companies
in its portfolio that do not adopt sufficiently credible climate plans. Valero's
board should account for material sustainability risks facing the company as
well as the broader environmental and social consequences of its operations and
products, NBIM said on its website. "Sustainability disclosures should be
aligned with applicable global reporting standards and frameworks to support
investors in their analysis of risks and opportunities," it added. NBIM will
also vote against the reappointment of Valero CEO and Chair Joe Gorder to the
company's board, in line with the fund's long-held view that the two key
positions should be held by separate individuals. Valero did not immediately
respond to a request for comment when contacted by Reuters. The Norwegian fund,
built on cash from Norway's oil and gas industry, held a 1.07% stake in Valero
at the end of 2022 with a value of $523 million, the last available data.
Canada is considering expelling Chinese diplomat for
targeting lawmaker
Reuters/May 4, 2023
Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said on Thursday she is considering
expelling a Chinese diplomat after a 2021 intelligence report said the official
had sought to track down a Canadian lawmaker's family in Hong Kong to intimidate
them. "My deputy minister right now is meeting with the Chinese ambassador and
summoning him, and that's why also we're assessing different options including
the expulsion of diplomats," Joly said in a parliamentary committee meeting.
Joly was replying to a question from Michael Chong, the member of parliament
with the opposition Conservative Party who had been singled out in the
intelligence report after he backed a motion in parliament declaring China's
treatment of the Uyghur Muslim minority genocide. "Why do you minister continue
to allow this diplomat to be accredited in this country?" Chong said. On Monday
Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper said that China sought information about Chong
and his family in a likely effort to "make an example" of him and "deter others
from taking anti-PRC positions." The Chinese consulate in Toronto denied the
report. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he found out about the intelligence
report from the newspaper, and on Wednesday blamed the spy agency for not
passing it onto him at the time. But on Thursday Chong said he had been told by
Trudeau's own national security advisor that the report had been circulated to
the Privy Council Office, which supports the prime minister and his Cabinet, in
2021. Late on Wednesday, China sharply criticized Trudeau's comment linking
Chinese-produced lithium to slave labor, and warned Canada could face
consequences if it continues "denigrating maliciously" the human rights
situation in China. "His words disregarded facts and confounded black with
white. The Chinese side expresses its strong dissatisfaction and resolute
opposition to this," the Chinese Embassy in Ottawa said in a statement. "The
Canadian side should respect facts, set aside prejudice, and stop denigrating
maliciously the human rights situation in China, otherwise Canada will certainly
take the consequences."Trudeau's office said it did not have anything to add to
his comments from last week.
UN fails to raise enough money for Yemen oil tanker
operation
Reuters/May 4, 2023
The United Nations on Thursday fell far short of raising the money it needs for
an operation to salvage 1.1 million barrels of oil from a decaying vessel moored
off Yemen's coast and avert an environmental disaster. UN officials have been
warning for years that the Red Sea and Yemen's coastline was at risk as the
Safer tanker could spill four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez
disaster off Alaska. The war in Yemen suspended maintenance operations on the
Safer in 2015. The UN has warned its structural integrity has significantly
deteriorated and it is at risk of exploding. Deputy UN spokesperson Farhan Haq
said the UN was confident a salvage operation could begin by the end of May. "We
have available internal financial mechanisms if there are still gaps. That
would, of course, need to be replenished by donors," Haq said. The United
Nations has said the clean-up of a spill could cost $20 billion, but yet it is
struggling to raise the $129 million needed to remove the oil from the Safer and
transfer it to a tanker, the Nautica, the UN bought for $55 million. Around $99
million has been raised from governments, private donors and crowdfunding. A UN
event co-hosted by Britain and the Netherlands on Thursday hoped to raise the
remaining $29 million needed for the emergency phase, but Haq said only $5.6
million was pledged. An additional $19 million was required for a critical
second phase, Haq said. The Nautica was procured by the UN in March and set sail
from China in early April. The salvage operation cannot be paid for by the sale
of the oil because it is not clear who owns it, the UN has said. Yemen has been
mired in conflict since the Iran-aligned Houthi group ousted the government from
the capital Sanaa in late 2014. A Saudi Arabia-led military coalition intervened
in 2015 aiming to restore the government.
Peace initiatives have seen increased momentum since Riyadh and Tehran in March
agreed to restore diplomatic ties severed in 2016.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on May 04-05/2023
Jordanian MP Lauded as "Hero" for Smuggling Weapons
into Israel
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/May 4, 2023
Why would a member of the Jordanian parliament who hates Israel with a passion
and supports a terror group whose charter calls for the elimination of Israel
try to smuggle weapons? To kill Jews.
That is precisely why Al-Adwan is seen by many Jordanians and Palestinians as a
"hero" and a "brave man."
It is not difficult to imagine the public outcry had an Israeli MP been caught
trying to smuggle weapons into Jordan or any other country.
Sadly, the campaign of solidarity with the Jordanian parliament member who was
caught while trying to smuggle a large cache of weapons into Israel signals the
hatred that Jordanians and Palestinians feel towards Israel and Jews.
This hate is the direct result of decades of indoctrination and brainwashing of
Jordanians and Palestinians. Israel does not harbor any bad feelings towards
Jordan. The opposite is true. Israel has always been supportive of the Jordanian
monarchy and the stability of the Hashemite regime was and still is an important
cornerstone of Israel's security.
As for the international community and the mainstream media in the West, they
could learn from the failed smuggling attempt that Israel's security concerns
are not unjustified and not exaggerated. This week, over 100 rockets were fired
from Gaza into Israel, a country roughly the size of Victoria Island. What would
the UK do if one rocket – let alone 100 – were fired into England? Or Germany,
if rockets were fired at Munich? Or France, if rockets were fired at Nice or
Cannes or St. Tropez?
Israel daily faces attempts by Hamas and other terror groups to carry out
terrorist attacks to kill Jews. The next time people complain about "tough
Israeli security measures," please remind them of that?
Imad Al-Adwan, a member of Jordan's parliament, is being praised as a "hero" by
many Jordanians and Palestinians after he was reportedly caught trying to
smuggle hundreds of guns into Israel. Pictured: The Israeli side of the Allenby
Bridge crossing between Israel and Jordan. (
Imad Al-Adwan, a member of Jordan's parliament, is being praised as a "hero" by
many Jordanians and Palestinians after he was reportedly caught trying to
smuggle weapons into Israel.
On April 22, Israeli authorities arrested Al-Adwan, 35, when he tried to cross
from Jordan into Israel through the Allenby Bridge border crossing. A video
posted on social media showed the contents of three bags containing 100
kilograms of gold, 12 automatic rifles and 270 semi-automatic pistols discovered
in his possession.
Al-Adwan is known for his staunch vocal support for the Iranian-backed
Palestinian terror group, Hamas. In a video posted on social media, he said: "We
send our greetings and respect to the Palestinian resistance groups, Hamas and
the Arab symbol Abu Obaidah [spokesman of Hamas' military wing, Izaddin Al-Qassam]."
It is safe to assume that the weapons the Jordanian MP tried to smuggle were
intended for the use of Hamas or other Palestinian terror groups in their Jihad
(holy war) against Israel. His anti-Israel statements and support for Hamas had
already turned Al-Adwan into a "hero" in the eyes of many Jordanians and
Palestinians.
He has repeatedly referred to Israel as "the Zionist entity," implying that he
does not recognize its right to exist. He has also denounced the Jordanian
ambassador to Israel for dining with Jews and called for cutting off diplomatic
relations between Israel and Jordan.
Now, Al-Adwan is being praised by Arabs because he allegedly tried to smuggle
weapons into Israel. Why would a member of the Jordanian parliament who hates
Israel with a passion and supports a terror group whose charter calls for the
elimination of Israel try to smuggle weapons? To kill Jews.
That is precisely why Al-Adwan is seen by many Jordanians and Palestinians as a
"hero" and a "brave man." This is a Jordanian member of parliament who
apparently decided to take his anti-Israel agenda to the next level by smuggling
assault rifles and pistols to terror groups. It is not difficult to imagine the
public outcry had an Israeli MP been caught trying to smuggle weapons into
Jordan or any other country.
Al-Adwan is a lawyer and holds a master's degree in international law. As such,
one would expect him to be aware of the implications of attempting to smuggle
weapons across an international border, especially into a country that has
diplomatic relations and a peace treaty with Jordan.
Instead of demanding that Al-Adwan be put on trial in Jordan for breaking the
law and harming his country's relations with Israel, several Jordanians are
condemning Israel for arresting him and are demanding his immediate and
unconditional release from Israeli detention.
According to Abdel Bari Atwan, a Palestinian newspaper editor based in London:
"Representative Imad Al-Adwan has turned into a popular hero, not only among his
tribe, but rather among all members of other Jordanian clans, and Jordanian
citizens in general and from different origins and races... Whatever the purpose
of his smuggling of the arsenal of weapons and gold, undertaking it was a great
national honor because the aim was to reach the Palestinian resistance in the
West Bank and other occupied territories...
"The overwhelming majority of Jordanians says that he (the Jordanian MP) is a
brave national hero, whether his goal is trade, or the delivery of weapons to
the resistance, because the two possibilities end up supporting the resistance
and reflect courage and a national, religious and moral commitment to solidarity
with the Palestinian people."
Atwan warned that the Jordanian government's failure to have Al-Adwan quickly
released from Israeli detention "may lead to military action by his tribe."
"We do not rule out several options, most notably kidnapping Israeli soldiers or
civilians and taking them hostage and using them as a bargaining chip... Jordan
is changing in a quick manner and the popular and official discontent has
reached its climax. This explains Jordan's openness to Iran and the axis of
resistance." Murad Adaileh, Secretary-General of the Islamic Action Front party,
the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, also voiced support for Al-Adwan:
"What MP Imad Al-Adwan did when he tried to deliver weapons to Palestine to
resist the [Israeli] occupation is a legal obligation and a national
necessity.... The duty of the [Jordanian] government is to seek his release."
Echoing the widespread support for the detained Jordanian parliament member,
prominent Palestinian political activist Fayez Abu Shamala wrote that Arabs and
Muslims are proud of Al-Adwan. "Imad Al-Adwan, you are the path to the end of
the Zionist state," Abu Shamala said. "You are not alone, Imad!"
Another Palestinian, Waseem Moukhtar, heaped praise on the Jordanian parliament
member for his support for the Palestinians and for "translating words into
deeds, adding:
""From Palestine, we affirm our solidarity and support for him until he obtains
his freedom. We demand that the Jordanian monarch work to secure his release."
Sadly, the campaign of solidarity with the Jordanian parliament member who was
caught while trying to smuggle a large cache of weapons into Israel signals the
hatred that Jordanians and Palestinians feel towards Israel and Jews.
This hate is the direct result of decades of indoctrination and brainwashing of
Jordanians and Palestinians. Israel does not harbor any bad feelings towards
Jordan. The opposite is true. Israel has always been supportive of the Jordanian
monarchy and the stability of the Hashemite regime was and still is an important
cornerstone of Israel's security. Recently, Israel agreed to provide
water-scarce Jordan with 200 million cubic meters of desalinated water.
Had the Jordanian parliament member called for normalizing Jordan's relations
with Israel, he would have likely been denounced by many Arabs as a traitor.
Instead, he is being lauded because Jordanians and Palestinians believe he was
on a mission to deliver weapons to terrorists who want to kill Jews.
The Jordanians would do well to understand that the charges against Al-Adwan, if
true, mean that Hamas or other Islamist groups are active in Jordan and are
using the kingdom and its elected representatives to smuggle weapons into
Israel. These weapons could also easily be used by the terrorists to undermine
security and stability in Jordan.
The Jordanians might also understand that the association of a parliament member
with terrorism will cause damage to Jordanian diplomats and government
officials, especially when they travel to other countries. Why should any
country trust these diplomats and officials not to be smuggling weapons to
destabilize them? If and when Al-Adwan is handed back to Jordan, it would serve
Jordan's interest to put him on trial for his involvement in the smuggling
attempt and for harming Jordan's national security worldwide by being affiliated
with terrorism.
Israel should insist that the parliament member stand trial in Jordan if Israeli
authorities decide to release him from detention. Israel should also protest to
Jordan against the ongoing campaign of incitement against Israel in the
Jordanian, especially in light of the Al-Adwan case.
As for the international community and the mainstream media in the West, they
could learn from the failed smuggling attempt that Israel's security concerns
are not unjustified and not exaggerated. This week, over 100 rockets were fired
from Gaza into Israel, a country roughly the size of Victoria Island. What would
the UK do if one rocket – let alone 100 – were fired into England? Or Germany,
if rockets were fired at Munich? Or France, if rockets were fired at Nice or
Cannes or St. Tropez?
Israel daily faces attempts by Hamas and other terror groups to carry out
terrorist attacks to kill Jews. The next time people complain about "tough
Israeli security measures," please remind them of that?
*Bassam Tawil is Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The new – or perhaps renewed – Cold War ...You can’t win it
if you don’t know you’re in it
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 04/2023
On Christmas Day, 1991, the Soviet Union ceased to exist, and the Cold War
ended. Or did it?
The answer depends on whether the Cold War was a conflict between two powerful
nation-states or a struggle between two opposing ideologies.
If it was the latter, the Cold War didn’t end with the collapse of the Union of
Soviet Socialist Republics. Rather, following a hiatus, Communist cold warriors
in Moscow were superseded by Communist cold warriors in Beijing. And leaders of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) take Marxism/Leninism at least as seriously as
did the last Soviet rulers.
Why did we not see this transition? Largely because the conventional – and
bipartisan – wisdom held that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was
slip-sliding away from communism, embracing freer markets and freer trade in
pursuit of prosperity. Other freedoms would surely follow. We Americans could
facilitate these historical changes.
Notably, in 2001, President Clinton successfully pushed to give the PRC
permanent normal trade relations with the U.S and membership in the World Trade
Organization, a foundational institution in the rules-based international order
established by Americans following World War II.
“Everything I have learned about China as president and before and everything I
have learned about human nature in over a half-century of living now,” Mr.
Clinton said at the time, “convinces me that we have a far greater chance of
having a positive influence on China’s actions if we welcome China into the
world community instead of shutting it out.” Few Republicans disagreed.
Joe Biden, as a senator and vice president, was a strong advocate of closer
relations with the PRC. “As a young member of a Foreign Relations Committee, I
wrote and I said and I believed then what I believe now,” he told Chinese
visitors in 2011, “that a rising China is a positive, positive development, not
only for China but for America and the world writ large.”
Running for president almost a decade later, he told voters that China’s rulers
are “not bad folks, folks. But guess what? They’re not competition for us.”
His National Security Strategy, published last October, asserts that the Cold
War is over and “We do not seek conflict or a new Cold War.”
However, the NSS does allow that “a competition is underway between the major
powers to shape what comes next. … Democracies and autocracies are engaged in a
contest to show which system of governance can best deliver for their people and
the world.”
A competition, a contest – and may the best system of governance win! Sounds
like we’re discussing an Olympic sport rather than determining whether the
future belongs to free nations or totalitarian dictatorships.
“It does us little good to repeat again and again that we aren’t seeking a new
Cold War when the CCP has been stealthily waging one against us for years,” Matt
Pottinger told the House select committee on the CCP a couple of months ago. A
Mandarin-speaking former White House deputy national security advisor, Mr.
Pottinger now serves as chairman of FDD’s China program.
Recognizing that a Cold War is underway is more than a semantic matter. It
provides a framework for formulating policies based on lessons learned.
During a cold war, the U.S. should have two primary objectives. The first was
articulated most succinctly by Ronald Reagan four years before he became
president: “We win and they lose.”
That doesn’t necessarily imply the termination of CCP rule in China. It doesn’t
even mean “containment” – the core of U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union.
It does suggest, as Mr. Pottinger has proposed, “a close cousin. Call it ‘constrainment’”
– preventing the PRC from becoming the global hegemon, enforcing its rules
internationally while the U.S. resigns itself to becoming a has-been power in a
world where liberty dies.
If you think I exaggerate you’re not listening to Chinese President Xi Jinping
who has declared that it is his “historical mission” to utilize “the tools of
dictatorship” to realize a future in which “capitalism will inevitably perish
and socialism will inevitably triumph.”
Marxism, he has said, “was created in order to change the destiny of human
history. … a collectivized world is just there, over [the horizon]. Whoever
rejects that world will be rejected by the world.”
The second vital objective in a cold war is to prevent it from becoming hot.
That can most effectively be achieved through deterrence – convincing
adversaries that it would be disastrous for them to challenge us militarily, or
even to cross our “red lines.” If they believe they stand an even chance of
defeating us, they are more likely to take their best shot.
We can debate strategies and tactics. But the first order of business is to come
to terms with the ambitions and machinations of Mr. Xi, the CCP, and the PRC,
keeping in mind that Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jong Un are what
communists would call “fellow travelers.”
Michael Pillsbury, author of “The Hundred Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy
to Replace America as the Global Superpower,” and currently senior fellow for
China strategy at the Heritage Foundation, recently co-authored a report titled,
“Winning the New Cold War.” It argues that “protecting the U.S. homeland and
prosperity and diminishing China’s ability to harm the U.S. will require a
whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach.”
That’s a heavy lift but the alternative could be to lose this “New Cold War,”
or, if my conceptualization is preferred, for historians of the future to write
that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a battle won in a war lost because
Americans wrongly believed the war had ended.
**Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for The Washington Times. Follow him on
Twitter @CliffordDMay. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
Report: Unprecedented Rise in Hate Crimes against American
Churches
Raymond Ibrahim/May 04/2023
Attacks on churches and Christian institutions on American soil are at an
all-time high. The Mar. 27, 2023 killings in Nashville—where a woman claiming to
be a man (aka “transgender”) stormed a private Christian school and murdered
three children and three adults—is just the spectacular tip of a growing but
concealed iceberg.
According to recent reports by the Family Research Council, “criminal acts
against churches have been steadily on the rise for the past several years.”
While relying on limited, public information—meaning that the actual number “of
acts of hostility [against churches] is undoubtedly much higher”—the
organization managed to verify “a total of 420 documented acts of hostility that
occurred between January 2018 and September 2022” across the United States.
Some of these, while not lethal, were reminiscent of the Nashville shooting:
Three gun-related incidents occurred on church property in the first three
months of 2023, including the shooting at The Covenant School [in Tennessee]. In
one incident, two adults and two juveniles shot 50 rounds from 9mm pistols at a
Mennonite church building in Versailles, Missouri; the property damage was
charged as a hate crime. In another incident, a late-night shooting took place
in the parking lot of the Praise Temple Baptist Church in Shreveport, Louisiana,
sending four individuals to the hospital.
Although every year has seen a steady increase in attacks on churches (2020
being the exception, due to Covid-mandated lockdowns), the rate of growth has
become exponential. As the report notes,
In the first quarter of 2023 [Jan, Feb, and Mar], 69 incidents have already
occurred. If this rate continues, 2023 will have the highest number of incidents
of the six years FRC has tracked, continuing the upward trend…. Compared to the
same [three month] timeframe in previous years, January through March of 2023
represents a significant increase in acts of hostility. In those same months,
2018 saw 15 acts of hostility against churches; 2019 saw 12; 2020 saw none [due
to lockdowns]; 2021 saw 14; and 2022 saw 24.
In other words, there were more church attacks in the first quarter of this year
than there were in the first quarters of the preceding five years combined.
Of the 69 attacks on churches to occur between Jan-Mar of 2023, the overwhelming
majority 53 (78%) consisted of vandalism and random property destruction. The
rest included 10 incidents of arson, three gun-related, three bomb threats.
Three of these attacks featured more than one of these categories.
While vandalism is the most innocuous of these crimes, it also best demonstrates
their true motivation: hate. As the report notes,
Many of the acts of vandalism represented unexplained acts of destruction, such
as an outdoor nativity scene being destroyed or rocks being thrown through a
window. Other acts of defacement and desecration featured the beheading of
Christian statues, the burning of crosses, and the sprawling of Satanic symbols
on churches. Regarding the mindless damage caused by vandals on Valentine’s Day
to a Presbyterian church in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, a church worker said,
I just don’t understand. I keep wondering why. It shows a great deal of anger.
And were they angry at us? Were they angry at churches? Were they angry at God?
I just don’t understand why someone would do this.
While the identity of the assailants is often unknown (or intentionally
concealed) a growing number appear to be, like the Nashville murderer,
gender-confused people. For example, on Jan. 3, 2023, Cameron David Storer, a
man claiming to be a woman, burned down a 117-year-old church building in
response to “voices in her head.”One month later, on Mar. 3—the day after the
Kentucky House of Representatives passed a bill that would protect children from
sexual mutilation (aka “gender-transitioning”)—vandals spray-painted “TRANS PWR”
on St. Joseph Catholic Church in Louisville.
After saying that “The problem of acts of hostility against churches in the
United States is widespread and growing,” Arielle Del Turco, of the Family
Research Council, said that they point
to a larger spiritual battle and a growing climate of hostility toward
Christianity. The motivations for some of these acts of vandalism, arson,
gun-related incidents, bomb threats, or other acts appear political while many
more seem completely inexplicable. Yet, all of these incidents represent a
deeply concerning trend and have the potential to be intimidating.
On the other hand, these trends are consistent with developments all around the
world. Even in Europe, the world’s former bastion of Christianity, several
churches are desecrated daily, including by being defecated and urinated on,
though this phenomenon gets little to zero news coverage.
And while Muslim migrants have been the traditional culprits—European cities
with large Muslim populations often see a concomitant rise in attacks on
churches and Christian symbols—so-called “leftist” elements, not just
gender-confused people, but flaming wokists of all stripes, are increasingly
behind the church desecrations. In Canada, for instance, which was once
described as “the church burning centre of the Western world” (though, clearly,
its southern neighbor is giving it a run for its money) dozens of churches have
been vandalized and torched, to official cheers, on the pretext of flimsy,
historic “grievances.”
Here a seeming irony arises: the worldview of, on the one hand, “woke” peoples,
and on the other, Muslims, are virtually antithetical: the former can be
typified by extreme liberalism and an abnegation of reality, while the latter
are the epitome of authoritarianism, patriarchy, and stark dogmatism.
So what explains their shared hatred for Christian churches? The answer seems
simple enough: whereas amoral secularism is willing to accommodate and appease
just about anything, churches cling to their own—that is, distinctly
Christian—worldview, and this worldview rejects and contradicts much of what
both the woke and the Muslim believe. As (the now “canceled”) Tucker Carlson
said, while explaining why a “trans” woman murdered six people in Tennessee:
[The] victims were murdered because they were Christians. It’s that simple.
Transgenderists hate Christians above all not because Christians are a physical
threat—the third graders [killed] were not a physical threat—but because
Christians refuse to join every other liar in our society and proclaim that
transgenderists are gods with the power to change nature itself. Christians are
not allowed to say that, they have their own God. And for that refusal, that
unwillingness to bow down and worship a false idol, in this case of
transgenderism, they were murdered.
Be that as it may, what cannot be denied is that hate for and violence against
Christians and their places of worship—which once typified and was largely
limited to the Muslim world—has reached and is rapidly spreading in America.
The Scourge of War and Sudan’s Fate
Jumah Boukleb/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Few in Sudan could be considered lucky so far. The luckiest are the foreign
passport holders who managed to arrive safely at Wadi Seidna Airfield (40 km
north of the capital Khartoum) and were shipped off to European capitals in
massive military cargo planes. The images of huge planes carrying human cargo at
Wadi Seidna Airfield are nothing but a painful re-enactment of the
heart-wrenching scenes that followed the US withdrawal from Kabul when we saw
thousands of Afghans desperately jostling for a spot on the plane to flee the
country where they knew they could well die.
In second place, we have those who are also lucky to be European passport
holders but were not lucky enough to make it to this deserted airfield in Wadi
Seidna. They had to traverse around 400 kilometers to reach Port Sudan before
Saudi warships shipped them off to Jeddah.
In third place are those who went a long way by car and on foot to cross the
Sudanese border and reach a neighboring country. The list of the fortunate ends
here. There is no fourth category of people in Sudan who can count themselves
lucky. The rest of the Sudanese population (46 million people), the unlucky who
do not possess foreign passports, were left to their own devices and fated to
live with the fear of death. They are stuck in a country embroiled in a
bone-breaking war between two generals that they have absolutely no interest in.
I do not think that anyone can imagine the horror of the Sudanese in the
capital, Khartoum (6 million people). Warplanes are dropping their bombs over
the city’s streets and homes, and the roar of tanks, cannons, and RPGs is
deafening. It is not only the foundations of the houses and buildings in which
they have taken refuge that are shaking; the entire country and the future of
its people are wobbling.
Arab and foreign news broadcasts continuously update us on the developments in
the battles for the capital, Khartoum, and other Sudanese cities. They read out
the latest statements released by the belligerents or their threats to one
another and constantly report on the updated casualty numbers. Images are
broadcast of citizens fleeing death, running in the streets, and searching for
safe havens where they can escape the shelling coming at them from all sides.
Those who managed to survive and make it to European capitals or Jeddah have
told us horror stories. They told about hastily erected gates where they were
extorted and threatened by guards before being allowed to cross over to the
other side. Behind the scenes, Washington and Riyadh are working to compel the
two generals to agree to a ceasefire and initiate negotiations. Capitals across
the Western and Muslim worlds continue to demand that the two generals put an
end to the bloodshed and destruction. Meanwhile, the flames of war are becoming
increasingly vicious by the day, and more and more lives are being lost.
Sudanese streets and roads have quickly turned into battlefields. Through our
experiences with civil conflict over the past decade and beyond, we know that
the path to dialogue was bombarded and wrecked on the first day of the war.
The avenues that remain are nothing but traps that lead to more death and
destruction. Indeed, the eruption of violence affirms that Sudan has been forced
into the dark tunnel of a deadly power struggle. There is no way out, and the
Sudanese and their neighbors must now pay the multifaceted costs of war.
It is possible that if God forbid, international efforts to ensure peace fail,
we could see Sudan divided like Libya. We could soon witness the arrival of
mercenaries from different countries. This scenario is not a figment of my
imagination, nor is it hyperbolic. It is the scenario we should expect. This is
objective analysis based on the experiences of the Arab countries that have
slipped into civil conflicts that have not subsided so far.
Despite its size, Libya was not large enough to accommodate the disputes between
the factions fighting for power. The same is true for Sudan. Unfortunately, the
vast territory of the third largest country in Africa is not large enough to
accommodate the two generals fighting for power.
All we hope for is the success of international, Arab and African efforts to end
the war. We hope the two generals can be convinced that no one can win the war
destroying Sudan. We hope that they listen to reason. It is necessary if their
differences are to be resolved. Remarkably, however, the British media has
reported that both generals believe they can win the battle on the ground and
defeat the other side...
Iran’s Next Step in Syria: Armed Militias Turn to Economic Militias
Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Latest in a series of developments in the Middle East, Iran’s President Ebrahim
Raisi travelled to Syria on Wednesday at the head of a delegation.
Syria seems to now have an opportunity to return to the Arab League, rebuilding
its identity as an Arab society. For years, this country has been a backyard for
the Islamic Republic of Iran and an important and crucial part of the ‘strategic
depth’ policy of this regime in the Middle East.
It is a highway that connects Iran to Lebanon and Hezbollah and lets it be close
to the borders of Israel. It is the most important friend and ally of the
Islamic Republic. Syria’s return to the Arab League and lifting of the sanctions
will lead to billions of dollars flowing to the country for reconstruction,
investment, development and infrastructure. Since the civil war began in Syria,
Iran has been a key ally of President Bashar Assad, alongside Russia. Militias
linked to Iran have played an important role in domestic clashes in the country.
Given the recent developments, many questions are now asked about the
continuation of these forces in Syria. Raisi entered Damascus as the whole
region, hoping for reduction of tensions, looks on optimistically to the
ceasefire in Yemen and resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. These
developments began with the measures taken by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,
Prince Mohammad bin Salman, aimed at de-escalation in the region. Riyadh
improved its ties with Qatar and Türkiye and went on to re-establish diplomatic
ties with Iran.
It appears that the Islamic Republic of Iran has also been impacted by the
de-escalation policy of the Crown Prince as it is also following its own
economic interests in improving ties with regional countries. It has thus taken
unprecedented measures. There is a possibility for resumption of ties with
Bahrain. On April 20, Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, held a
phone call with his Jordanian counterpart. None of this would have been possible
without approval by the Saudis. Raisi’s trip to Syria can be a beginning for his
regional trips to the Arab world, especially Oman, Iraq, United Arab Emirates
and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian regime has spent billions of dollars on its
militias in Syria, hoping to keep Assad in power. According to estimates by
experts and international observers, Syria now needs 400 billion dollars in the
next 10 to 15 years for reconstruction. This massive amount can come from
investments by rich Arab countries and the Iranian regime will also not easily
lose this economic opportunity.
Contracts have been signed in communications, transportation, railway expansion
(Iran to Syria), reconstruction, oil and gas. They are future-looking, aiming to
guarantee a share for the Islamic Republic. Since the economic dimension of the
trip is important for the Iranian regime, Tehran must also work to get rid of
the militias currently in Syria. This will help it be able to use the existing
economic opportunities. The next step by the regime will thus be replacing the
militias or turning them into a new concept: “economic militias”. In other
words, the IRGC-linked militias will now become Iranian economic actors in
Syria.
Afghanistan faced similar conditions following the fall of Taliban in 2003.
IRGC’s economic section expanded its activities there aimed at “reconstruction”
while signing construction contracts and exporting Iranian made commodities.
If the Iranian regime’s plan of improving ties with regional Arab countries goes
ahead without problem, solving Yemen’s crisis should lead to another
development: election of a president in Lebanon and putting an end to months of
interim governance and the political impasse made by groups linked to Hezbollah
and Tehran. Iran has also been invited to the next Syria meeting to be held in
Moscow next month. Aimed at fixing ties between Syria and Türkiye, the meeting
will feature foreign ministers of Ankara, Damascus and Tehran. Since China has
recently played a role in regional affairs, it looks like it will also be
invited here. There will also be representatives from the Syrian opposition.
The meeting can bring about final agreements to put an end to the war in Syria
and be the final step to complete Syria’s return to the Arab League and lifting
of sanctions. Tehran knows that Syria’s return to the Arab League will decrease
its strategic influence there. This is why it is trying to prepare the grounds
for changing the nature of IRGC’s presence in Syria. This being said,
realization of the contracts signed between Iran and Syria depends on lifting of
sanctions on the country and resolving the West’s conflict with Iran over the
nuclear program.
Until this two important points haven’t been achieved, all the large and
important contracts between Tehran and Damascus will only be small deals aimed
at circumventing sanctions on the two countries.
Intel Signals Putin’s Dream of a Total Takeover Is Now Dashed
Shannon Vavra/The Daily Beast/May 4, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin has pared back his goals in the war in Ukraine
to focus only on maintaining territory he has already seized, according to a new
U.S. intelligence community assessment.
Moscow has also decided to focus on its goal of preventing Ukraine from joining
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Avril Haines, the Director of
National Intelligence (DNI), told lawmakers Thursday.
“We assess that Putin probably has scaled back his immediate ambitions to
consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine
and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally,” Haines said.
“He may be wiling to claim at least a temporary victory based on roughly the
territory he has occupied,” Haines added.
It’s a stark analysis from the U.S. intelligence community that comes over one
year into a war that has left Russian forces with hundreds of thousands of
casualties and without significant territorial gains. Russian armed forces have
failed to seize significant swaths of territory in the last several months in
Ukraine, despite reported plans to seize more territory in Eastern Ukraine by
March.
Putin Grooms Russians for Defeat in Leaked Crisis Manual
In April alone, Russian forces gained less territory than during any of the
three previous months while they transition to defensive rather than offensive
operations, according to Haines.
It’s not the first time that Putin has appeared to adjust his goals in Ukraine.
When Russian troops tried and failed to seize Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, due
to logistics and resupply issues last year, Russian forces shifted focus to
eastern Ukraine. But the U.S. government’s assessment at the time was that Putin
still had designs to take over the entirety of the country, as The Daily Beast
reported.
And yet, a negotiated settlement doesn’t appear to be an inevitability, Haines
indicated.
“Even as Putin may be scaling back his near term ambitions, the prospect for
Russian concessions to advance negotiations this year will be low unless
domestic political vulnerabilities alter his thinking,” she said.
U.S. officials have been noting in recent days that military battles alone might
not bring about an end to the conflict, hinting at a settlement in some form,
even as Ukrainian officials insist that they hope to push Russians out of all
territory Moscow has seized since 2014.
Ukrainian armed forces are preparing to launch a counteroffensive sometime in
the spring or summer to push Russia out of territory in eastern Ukraine,
according to U.S. intelligence.
“I do think that the probability of either side achieving their political
objectives through the sole use of military means…is going to be very difficult,
very challenging,” Gen. Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
told Foreign Affairs recently.
Secretary of State Tony Blinken encouraged negotiations for peace between Russia
and Ukraine this week.
“We’re open to any country engaging in responsible efforts to try to advance
peace, and that begins with a couple of things. It begins, first of all, with
the recognition… that what’s fundamentally at stake is the territorial integrity
and sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, so any peace agreement has to have
that as its foundation,” Blinken told Fox News in an interview.
Putin’s calculus may have changed in Ukraine in the near term. But he still
likely harbors the belief that if he can wait for support for Ukraine to dry up
in western countries, he may be able to resurge Russia’s offensive effort at
some point in the future, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s
assessment.
“We continue to assess that Putin most likely calculates that time works in his
favor and that prolonging the war may be his best remaining pathway to
eventually securing Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine,” Haines said
Thursday.
Putin Is Getting Pummeled With His Own Favorite War Trick
To that end, the Kremlin’s influence arm has been amplifying speculation about
providing military aid to Ukraine, which has been key to helping Ukraine fend
off total Russian takeover, U.S. intelligence memos obtained previously by The
Daily Beast show.
The U.S. intelligence community now assesses that Putin might be interested in
negotiating some kind of pause, if only to allow his military time to rebuild.
“Putin’s willingness to consider a negotiated pause may be based on his
assessment that a pause would provide a respite for Russian forces as they could
try to use that time to regain strength before resuming offensive operations at
some point in the future, while buying time for what he hopes would be an
erosion of western support for Ukraine,” Haines said.
The timing on any Russian operation to rebuild is not clear at the moment, U.S.
intelligence officials told lawmakers Thursday. It might take as long as a
decade to rebuild Russia’s military capability after massive losses in Ukraine,
the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, said.
“It's going to take them a while to build back to more…the estimates go from
five to ten years,” he said.
Moscow’s deteriorated conventional military prowess will likely force it to rely
on other levers of power, such as cyberattacks.
“Moscow has suffered military losses that will require years of rebuilding and
leave it less capable of posing a conventional military threat to Europe and
operating assertively in Eurasia and on the global stage,” Haines said. “As a
result Russia will become even more reliant on asymmetric options such as
nuclear, cyber, space capabilities, and on China.”
Close ties with the GCC should be a priority for Biden
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 04, 2023
At a time when America’s military presence in the Middle East appears to be
shrinking and other forces may be looking to fill the vacuum, it is more
essential than ever for the Biden administration to work in lockstep with the
members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
At this critical time, the Biden administration ought to reconfirm the US’
commitment to Middle Eastern security and aim to strengthen the ties between
Washington and the members of the GCC — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain,
Kuwait and Oman — on several fronts, such as the security, geopolitical and
environmental landscapes.
President Joe Biden last year pledged that the US is committed to building
“political, economic and security connections between the United States —
between the US partners wherever possible, while respecting each country’s
sovereignty and independent choices … Let me state clearly that the United
States is going to remain an active, engaged partner in the Middle East.”
Biden added that the US’ objectives “are focused, realistic and achievable, so
that we can target our resources, rebuild trust and deliver real results. And we
will operate in the context of the Middle East as it is today: a region more
united than it has been in years. The GCC is a prime example of that. Former
rivals have reestablished diplomatic and economic ties. New memberships are
being forged. And increasingly, the world is seeing the Middle East through the
lens of opening and opportunity.”
The GCC — which was established with the purpose of strengthening relations
between its members, safeguarding their sovereignty and addressing general
concerns about their affairs and interests — has become a key international
player that is capable of ushering in significant and positive changes, not only
in the region but also beyond. Other objectives of the GCC include formulating
regulations in various fields, including commerce, customs and communications,
education and culture, social and health affairs, information and tourism, and
legislative and administrative affairs.
There are many opportunities for increased cooperation between the US and the
GCC
There are many opportunities for increased cooperation between the US and the
GCC. One of the critical points of cooperation is security. This not only serves
the region, but it also advances US national security interests. As Iowa
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst wrote in a letter to National Security Adviser Jake
Sullivan last October: “The United States must continue to convene partners,
reinforce security dialogue, and develop defense concepts to counter these
growing threats … Integrated air and missile defense in the region has been a
consistent initiative by US Central Command, with bipartisan support.”
She added: “Our roadmap is clear: The United States must continue to engage
regional partners to counter common threats … As the security partner of choice,
the United States should reliably implement defense efforts and proceed with the
US-GCC integrated air and missile defense working group without delay.”
In addition, leaders in the Gulf, as well as the Biden administration, will be
keen to find common ground on which they can build positive partnerships in
other areas, including climate change. President Biden has frequently made much
of his environmental intentions. If we recall, in his initial flurry of
executive orders on taking office, a return to the Paris Agreement on climate
change was one of the most prominent decisions. The president clearly sees
placing climate change high on the agenda as a vote winner, especially among
younger, more liberal-minded voters.
It is important to point out that some Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are
leading the way on this issue. As exemplified by the latest developments,
climate change is an obvious choice for an interest that is shared by the US and
the GCC states. Although some scholars, policy analysts and politicians might
think a region that is the oil hub of the world is not an obvious place to look
for innovation in green technologies, the region has in fact experienced a shift
in its understanding and recognition of the fact that avoiding action on climate
change is no longer possible.
For example, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have pledged to improve the proportion of
their energy mixes that come from renewable sources, while the UAE has committed
to a 23.5 percent reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. However,
there also appears to be a growing understanding that technologies such as
carbon capture and storage need to be developed to keep the oil industry viable
in the long term.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced hugely ambitious plans to build NEOM, the
world’s first city without roads — a clear signal of its intent to adjust course
in a more environmentally friendly direction. And Sultan Al-Jaber, the chairman
of Masdar, has pointed out that the UAE “aims to play a central role in the
emerging green hydrogen economy.”
If the Biden administration is searching for another common cause between
Washington and the GCC, green issues could provide the answer. Solar power, for
example, is an area in which there is obvious common ground. The US is the
world’s second-largest producer of solar energy, while the Middle East is an
obvious candidate for the mass deployment of solar panels as a source of
renewable energy. Furthermore, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have
invested, or are planning to invest, billions of dollars in developing high-tech
innovation hubs that could prove attractive to American companies that are
interested in developing advanced clean technology.
In a nutshell, the Biden administration has opportunities for positive and
expanded cooperation with the GCC on several fronts.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh