English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 05/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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15 آذار/2023

Bible Quotations For today
Do not work for the food that perishes, but for the food that endures for eternal life, which the Son of Man will give you. For it is on him that God the Father has set his seal.’”
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 06/22-27:”The next day the crowd that had stayed on the other side of the lake saw that there had been only one boat there. They also saw that Jesus had not got into the boat with his disciples, but that his disciples had gone away alone. Then some boats from Tiberias came near the place where they had eaten the bread after the Lord had given thanks. So when the crowd saw that neither Jesus nor his disciples were there, they themselves got into the boats and went to Capernaum looking for Jesus. When they found him on the other side of the lake, they said to him, ‘Rabbi, when did you come here?’Jesus answered them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, you are looking for me, not because you saw signs, but because you ate your fill of the loaves. Do not work for the food that perishes, but for the food that endures for eternal life, which the Son of Man will give you. For it is on him that God the Father has set his seal.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 04-05/2023
Bukhari tells al-Rahi KSA has no veto on any presidential candidate
Sheikh Akl Abi Al-Muna discusses general situation with KSA Ambassador, hails Saudi role
Sheikh Al-Khatib broaches developments with KSA Ambassador
Sami Gemayel to opposition: Securing quorum to Franjieh like electing him
Lebanon Legal Council Dismisses Judge Ghada Aoun
Geagea to Shea: Franjieh's chances have become nil
Berri 'relieved' on presidential file, rest of month 'critical'
Khoury asks judges not to make statements without prior approval
Raja Salameh appears before European judicial team
Lebanese government stands firm on obtaining data on Syrian refugees
Beirut Airport’s number of travelers increases by 36% in April
Mawlawi meets UN's Wronecka, UN's Riza, discusses coordinatory affairs with Caretaker Minister Nassar
Berri meets Arab clans’ sheikhs’ delegation: We stand shoulder to shoulder in the face of strife between the sons of one nation
Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
Lebanon's Serge Nader wins for his sustainable 3D prints in Canada
LIC Welcomes U.S. Administration Statement
Sit-in in front of Justice Palace rejects “pressure against judges”
Lebanese dreams of a new political system are futile for now/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/May 04/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 04-05/2023
Israel minister: Iran nuke enrichment could ignite region
Iran Arrests Firm Managers for Backing Labor Strikes
Iran's Raisi, on Syria visit, urges anti-Israel unity
Microsoft: Iran Accelerates Its Cyber Influence Operations Worldwide
Iranian Official Says Saudi Trade Delegation to Visit Tehran Soon
IAEA Affirms Reinstalling Surveillance Cameras in Iran
Israel seized Binance crypto accounts to 'thwart' Islamic State, document shows
Arab foreign ministers to discuss Syria, Sudan in Cairo
Iranian president meets Palestinian officials in Syria
Forces kill 3 Palestinians behind deaths of British-Israelis
U.S. Blasts 'Ludicrous' Russian Claim Of Plotting Putin Assassination Attempt
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and UN to discuss grain deal on Friday
Details in the drone incident the Kremlin says aimed to assassinate Putin 'don't quite add up.' Experts have 3 theories on what happened.
In Ukraine’s forests, fighters race to prepare for next push
US envoy to UN urges Brazil to see Ukrainian side to the war
U.S. tries to stop war between Armenia, Azerbaijan in already volatile Eastern Europe
Norway oil fund to back climate resolution at refiner Valero's AGM
Canada is considering expelling Chinese diplomat for targeting lawmaker
UN fails to raise enough money for Yemen oil tanker operation

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 04-05/2023
Jordanian MP Lauded as "Hero" for Smuggling Weapons into Israel/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/May 4, 2023
The new – or perhaps renewed – Cold War ...You can’t win it if you don’t know you’re in it/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 04/2023
Report: Unprecedented Rise in Hate Crimes against American Churches/Raymond Ibrahim/May 04/2023
The Scourge of War and Sudan’s Fate/Jumah Boukleb/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Iran’s Next Step in Syria: Armed Militias Turn to Economic Militias/Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Intel Signals Putin’s Dream of a Total Takeover Is Now Dashed/Shannon Vavra/The Daily Beast/May 4, 2023
Close ties with the GCC should be a priority for Biden/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 04, 2023


Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 04-05/2023
Bukhari tells al-Rahi KSA has no veto on any presidential candidate

Naharnet/May 04/2023
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari met Thursday with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkerki. Bkerki’s spokesperson Walid Ghayad said that Bukhari has told al-Rahi that KSA considers the presidency a Lebanese decision and has no objection to any name. "Saudi Arabia is against any dictations and will not object to any elected candidate," Ghayad quoted Bukhari as saying. He said that Bukhari also stressed on KSA's keenness on not being accused of obstructing the presidential vote. Bukhari had on Wednesday held talks with Speaker Nabih Berri and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and emphasized the need to speed up the election of a president who would be able to achieve the aspirations of the Lebanese.

Sheikh Akl Abi Al-Muna discusses general situation with KSA Ambassador, hails Saudi role
NNA/May 04/2023
Sheikh Akl of the Unitarian Druze Community, Dr. Sami Abi Al-Muna, on Thursday received at the Druze Community House in Beirut, the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari. Discussions touched on the general situation, bilateral relations, and current issues on the domestic and international arenas.The meeting was an occasion during which Sheikh Abi Al-Muna hailed the active role of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the Arab and international levels, and its historical relationship with Lebanon, and its constant stand by the country during its ordeals and crises.

Sheikh Al-Khatib broaches developments with KSA Ambassador
NNA/May 04/2023
Deputy Head of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council, Sheikh Ali Al-Khatib, on Thursday received at the Council's headquarters, the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari, who offered him well-wishes on the occasion of the holy Fitr Eid. Discussions touched on the brotherly relations between the two countries and the two brotherly peoples, as well as on developments in Lebanon and the region. Sheikh Al-Khatib blessed "the Saudi-Iranian agreement that preserves the interests of the two countries and is reflected on the overall Arab and Islamic situation," and hoped that "the coming days will witness an internal breakthrough leading to the election of a consensual president in preparation for the formation of a rescue government that will get Lebanon out of its economic and livelihood crises." Al-Khatib also underlined the "influential Saudi role in strengthening Arab-Islamic solidarity."

Sami Gemayel to opposition: Securing quorum to Franjieh like electing him
Naharnet/May 04/2023
Kataeb Party leader Sami Gemayel on Thursday warned the opposition forces that securing parliamentary quorum for the election of Suleiman Franjieh would be “equivalent to electing him.”“I reassure everyone that the kingdom has not requested and we do not receive instructions from anyone, seeing as our stances and choices are related to our convictions and our country’s interest,” Gemayel said after meeting Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari in Saifi. “The Arab stance is clear in standing by Lebanon if it is willing to carry out reforms, but if it heads to further isolation and subordination to Hezbollah, the Arab brothers have sent a clear message that it won’t be able to depend on them,” Gemayel added. “We reject the election of any candidate loyal to Hezbollah and it is not required to replace Franjieh with someone else (who is loyal to Hezbollah), because the matter is about a political choice and not the person,” the Kataeb chief went on to say. As for the possibility of electing a so-called consensual president, Gemayel said: “If it possible to agree on a consensual president and if they would withdraw Franjieh, we would withdraw our candidate Michel Mouawad.”“We would then go to parliament with the presence of three or four candidates and let the best candidate win,” Gemayel added.

Lebanon Legal Council Dismisses Judge Ghada Aoun
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
The Lebanese judiciary's disciplinary council on Thursday decided to remove from office one of the judges who has brought charges against the country's central bank governor and commercial banks. A number of domestic and foreign probes have been launched against Lebanon's financial officials following decades of profligate spending and mismanagement. Judge Ghada Aoun, who has investigated corruption by top Lebanese officials and the practices of the financial sector, told Reuters the disciplinary council accused her of bias. "They are punishing me for doing my job," Aoun told reporters on Thursday after she left a hearing of the council, during which she was informed of its decision to dismiss her. Aoun said the bias accusations were based on comments she had made about corrupt officials. She said she had appealed the decision and could legally keep practicing until the appeal was decided. A senior judicial source told Reuters that the council had voted unanimously to dismiss her after numerous complaints were filed against her over her investigations. Earlier this year, Lebanon's prime minister and interior minister moved to restrict her probe into commercial banks, saying she was "overstepping authority" after she charged two banks with money laundering. Aoun also charged central bank governor Riad Salameh last year with illicit enrichment, in a case related to wider corruption investigations in Lebanon and at least five European countries. Salameh, who denies the accusations, was later charged by another Lebanese judge with illicit enrichment.

Geagea to Shea: Franjieh's chances have become nil
Naharnet/May 04/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Thursday noted that “betting on time in the presidential file will not serve any camp, especially the Axis of Defiance and its candidate.”The chances of the aforementioned candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, “have become nil,” Geagea added, during a meeting in Maarab with U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea. “The game of time will only aggravate the crisis and delay the chances of reform,” the LF leader warned. “The time has come to show the needed courage and call on parliament to convene and carry out its constitutional missions, topped by the election of a president, as soon as possible,” Geagea told Shea. “The initiative today is in the hands of the Lebanese themselves, who should secure the election of a figure who not only enjoys integrity and honesty, but also the sufficient courage to manage the country amid this critical and serious situation,” the LF leader went on to say.

Berri 'relieved' on presidential file, rest of month 'critical'
Naharnet/May 04/2023
The developments related to the presidential file are “more than relieving,” contrary to “all the tense atmosphere that is being created by political components angry over the foreign efforts,” informed sources said. The tense atmosphere has been reflected in “the unprecedented attack on the French role, which has presented Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh as the candidate who has the highest chances and whose election would achieve Lebanon’s interest,” the sources added, in remarks to al-Joumhouria newspaper published Thursday. Official sources meanwhile told the daily that “the U.S. ambassador’s visit to Ain el-Tineh and her meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri was part of the relieving atmosphere, and so was the consultations tour that Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari has begun with political leaders, especially his meeting with Berri yesterday.”“What remains of the current month of May will be a critical period dedicated to attempting to reach a final Lebanese presidential settlement,” the newspaper quoted highly informed sources as saying. An Arab diplomatic source for his part told al-Joumhouria that he expects “positive developments related to the presidential file in Lebanon, as a natural outcome of the efforts that Lebanon’s friends and brothers are exerting in this regard.”

Khoury asks judges not to make statements without prior approval
Naharnet/May 04/2023
Caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury on Thursday issued a circular calling on judges to “abide by the legal norms and refrain from engaging in all forms of media appearances.”He also asked them not to “take any public stance on any journalistic or electronic platform without obtaining a prior permission from the relevant authorities.”

Raja Salameh appears before European judicial team
Associated Press/May 04/2023
A European judicial team pressed on with its corruption probe of Lebanon's embattled Central Bank governor on Thursday, questioning Salameh's brother, Raja, for the first time. Raja Salameh had not shown up at a session last week, citing illness. The delegation from France, Germany, and Luxembourg is on its third visit to Lebanon to interrogate suspects and witnesses in an ongoing investigation of Gov. Riad Salameh and associates over several financial crimes and the laundering of some $330 million. The governor faces allegations of crimes including embezzlement, money laundering and tax evasion in separate probes in Lebanon and abroad. His brother Raja is accused of complicity. Last month, the European delegation questioned Riad Salameh about the Central Bank's assets and investments outside Lebanon, a Paris apartment owned by Salameh, and Forry Associates Ltd, a brokerage firm owned by his brother.
Raja Salameh is to appear before French prosecutors in mid-May.

Lebanese government stands firm on obtaining data on Syrian refugees
LBCI/May 04/2023
Lebanon is home to almost 800,000 Syrian refugees who have entered the country since 2015. Among them are over 500,000 individuals who continue to enter Lebanon illegally on a daily basis, identifying themselves as displaced persons fleeing the war in Syria. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has added 800,000 registered Syrian refugees to the list of displaced persons since the beginning of the war in Syria. This decision contradicts the Lebanese government's October 23, 2014, decision to stop registering Syrians in Lebanon without the approval of Lebanese authorities and according to the standards they set. However, the UNHCR demanded the Lebanese government hand over a list of 1.66 million Syrian refugees within a two-day deadline, which the agency did not meet. Instead, the agency handed the data to General Security, the authorized entity to receive, protect, study, and safeguard the information. The UNHCR demanded that, in return for handing over the data, the 800,000 refugees registered after 2015 be added to the list of 860,000 displaced persons registered before that period and be granted residency in Lebanon and access to services received by registered displaced individuals. The UNHCR did not settle for these conditions. The General Security responded to the conditions. According to LBCI's sources, the Acting Director-General of General Security, Brigadier General Elias El Baissari, sent a letter to the UNHCR, giving the agency until Monday to comply with its promises. Furthermore, caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, followed the issue and sent a representative to question the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Imran Riza, about the UNHCR's conditions, especially since the Lebanese government is not backing down from its decision.
Thus, the Lebanese authorities want complete, uncompromised, and unconditional data, and this is not the first time that the UNHCR has withheld data from the Lebanese state. Years ago, Lebanon submitted a paper of 15 points to the UN about displaced persons and their numbers, but it was not responded to.
Nevertheless, after this file has gained Lebanese consensus about the need to address it, the government has not backed down from its decision and will not withdraw from obtaining the data of the displaced.

Beirut Airport’s number of travelers increases by 36% in April
LBCI/May 04/2023
The movement at the Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport was characterized by a remarkable activity and an increase in the number of travelers during April, especially since this month was punctuated by multiple holidays on the occasion of the Easter and Eid al-Fitr holidays. The number of passengers who used the airport increased during April by more than 36 percent compared to what it was in the same month of the previous year. This brings the total number of passengers in the first third of 2023 to 1,911,477 passengers, compared to 1,504,304 passengers in the same period in 2022, recording an increase of 27 percent. The airport traffic during April 2023 was distributed as follows: The number of passengers passing through the airport to and from Lebanon during the fourth month of 2023 increased by 36.4 percent, recording 543,104 passengers. The number of arrivals to Lebanon increased by 30.4. percent and reached 281,614 passengers, and the number of passengers at departure increased by 43.72 percent and recorded 261,014 passengers, while passengers by transit reached 476. In terms of aircraft movement, the total number of flights of national, Arab, and foreign airlines using the airport during April amounted to 4,428 flights (an increase of 23 percent over April 2022), as the number of incoming flights to Lebanon increased by 23 percent and recorded 2,214 flights. The number of flights departing from Lebanon increased by 22.9 percent and recorded 2,214 flights.

Mawlawi meets UN's Wronecka, UN's Riza, discusses coordinatory affairs with Caretaker Minister Nassar
NNA/May 04/2023
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, on Thursday received in his office at the Ministry, the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka. Discussions touched on the general situation and the repercussions of the Syrian displacement on Lebanon. Caretaker Minister Mawlawi then met with UN Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator, Imran Riza, over the Syrian displacement issue and its repercussions. On the other hand, Mawlawi discussed with Caretaker Minister of Tourism, Walid Nassar, coordination affairs between the Ministries of Interior and Tourism, in the presence of former MP Eddy Maalouf. Mawlawi also met with former MP Mansour Ghanem El-Bon, and discussed with him the general situation

Berri meets Arab clans’ sheikhs’ delegation: We stand shoulder to shoulder in the face of strife between the sons of one nation
NNA/May 04/2023
HOUSE SPEAKER, NABIH BERRI, ON THURSDAY RECEIVED AT THE SECOND PRESIDENCY IN AIN EL-TINEH, A DELEGATION OF SHEIKHS OF THE ARAB CLANS FROM THE VARIOUS LEBANESE REGIONS, AND FROM THE ARAB TRIBES OF KHALDEH, IN THE PRESENCE OF MPS MOHAMMED SULEIMAN AND MOHAMMED KHAWAJA.
The delegation presented Speaker Berri with the “abaya” of the Arab clans, as a token of recognition and appreciation for his positions and efforts in national reunification, calling on the Speaker to intervene and exert further efforts in order to achieve reconciliation in the Khaldeh events.
Speaker Berri hailed "the high sense of national and patriotic responsibility embodied by the Arab clans in warding off the strife that some tried to awaken in Khaldeh."Berri concluded by stressing that Amal Movement stands shoulder to shoulder with the Arab clans and those with goodwill in confronting strife between the sons of the one nation.

Lebanon's Serge Nader wins for his sustainable 3D prints in Canada
LBCI/May 4, 2023
Lebanon's Serge Nader is one of the University of Alberta's Campus Sustainability Leaders Award 2023 winners for his 3D prints.  Intrigued by his curiosity, he made in-house lab accessories, which have positive environmental impacts, as instead of ordering items from different locations, and consequently increasing carbon emissions, the lab orders one printing material.  The polymer used to make those accessories comes from plant-based starches and is industrially compostable, leading to reducing plastic waste. According to the University of Alberta, Nader also made his designs open source, meaning that other labs can download and reuse his work.  "These technologies not only make laboratory accessories more affordable, more available on demand and make the labs be more independent in their logistics, they also, from a sustainability standpoint, are really impactful with reducing the need for storage and worldwide shipping — you can get away from all of this by doing your own thing — just being more independent," said Serge Nader. It is worth noting that Serge Nader has a Bachelor's Degree, Biology-biochemistry from the Saint Joseph University of Beirut (USJ) and a Master's Degree in Structure and Interaction of Macromolecules and Functional Genomics from the same university. He also obtained his Ph.D. in Structural Biology from Université Grenoble Alpes and has been working as a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Alberta in Canada.

Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
NNA/May 04/2023
Oil prices in Lebanon have dropped on Thursday as the price of the can of gasoline (95 octanes) has decreased by LBP 10,000 and (98 octanes) has decreased by LBP 11,000. The price of diesel has decreased by LBP 9,000, and the gas canister has decreased by LBP 6,000.
Consequently, the new prices are as follows:
95 octanes: LBP 1,733,000
98 octanes: LBP 1,773,000
Diesel: LBP 1,497,000
Gas: LBP 997,000

LIC Welcomes U.S. Administration Statement
For Immediate Release
Washington, DC-May 3rd, 2023
Regarding the Presidential Vacancy and Candidates
The Lebanese Information Center (LIC) welcomes the statement by the U.S. Department of State calling for Lebanon’s political leadership to expeditiously elect a president who can unite the country, enact reforms, and bring accountability to government. Lebanon has been without a president for six months following the end of Michel Aoun’s term and urgently needs political leadership to guide the country out of the ongoing economic and political crises. The LIC agrees with the statement and appreciates the administration’s acknowledgement that Lebanon needs a president free of corruption who will bring accountability and transparency to the government and commit to desperately needed reforms. In addition to the necessary qualifications mentioned in the statement, the LIC also calls for a Lebanese president who will defend the sovereignty of the country and state institutions, respect international resolutions, and rebuild relationships with the international community. The next Lebanese president must stand up to foreign and sectarian forces that seek to undermine the authority of the state and foster instability and insecurity. Though time is of concern, the quality of the candidate is of critical importance given the severity of the issues. Lebanon cannot afford to wait another six years to resolve its issues and avoid further disaster.
**The Lebanese Information Center in the U.S. is the largest grassroots organization of Americans of Lebanese descent, committed to building a free, sovereign, and democratic Lebanon for the good of the Lebanese people and in the interest of the United States of America.

Sit-in in front of Justice Palace rejects “pressure against judges”
NNA/May 04/2023
"Amwalouna Lana - Our Money is Ours" association and the "Caliber" group on Thursday carried out a sit-in in front of the Palace of Justice in Beirut, "in of support of the European delegation, and in rejection against all the campaigns and pressure exerted against judges." This sit-in coincides with the Disciplinary Council's issuance of a decision expelling Judge Ghada Aoun from service.

Lebanese dreams of a new political system are futile for now
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/May 04/2023
More and more voices across the political spectrum in Lebanon are expressing the need for a new political system. There is a growing consensus, even among political foes, that the confessional system no longer works — or, to be precise, never worked. However, this might all be “philosopher” talk in the pejorative Arabic sense. These voices — mine included — have no impact on realpolitik. It is just theory, while others are holding AK-47s and controlling the gritty backstage political deal-making. But this should not stop people hoping for or dreaming of change.
Among the dreamers, there are now two main paths for a new Lebanon. To start with, both aim to put an end to confessionalism. The two paths are the centralized executive and the federation. In the centralized executive version, the call is for a universal direct election of the president and the cancellation of all confessional laws, or the existing pro rata system, through the establishment of a civil state. In the federal system, it is about recognizing the various confessions and giving them autonomy and decision-making power at the local level. And so, we quickly notice that, in Lebanon, even in dreams there is confrontation.
I will be a cynic and say that the vision of a centralized executive power is in fact the continuation of the nightmare Lebanon is living. And those who dream of it are either manipulated or are the unwilling accomplices of those holding the power and the AK-47s today. Nevertheless, the transition to either system carries major risks. In the presidential system, the risks are bigger, as it will ostracize entire smaller minority communities. This could lead to violent clashes. In the transition to a federation, the risks of secession are real, as well as the delimitation of zones, which could lead to clashes.
A federation would be a much better solution for Lebanon. It would recognize each community and celebrate them
The centralized civil system is not the right solution for Lebanon because, although you can easily cancel confessions in identity documents, you cannot cancel them in people’s blood. This is the reality. This system would lead to continuous tensions and eventually would bring back the pro rata system. This is simply because the executive will seek a consensus and aim to balance decision-making between all confessions. In the worst scenario of this system, one confession will take full power and oppress, to differing degrees, all the others. In fact, despite its claims of canceling confessionalism and making all citizens equal, this system would solidify that system.
A federation would be a much better solution for Lebanon. It would recognize each community and celebrate them. It would give each community its own authority and autonomy. This would avoid the pro rata balancing act that invites corruption. It would make each political leader accountable in front of their constituents. They would no longer be able to hide mismanagement by exploiting the fear of the other. A federation would allow each community to govern itself on what matters the most to them: education, healthcare, security and much more. More importantly, it would have the power to shift the country from confrontation to positive competition.
The main point here is that the presidential system would keep Lebanon as a victim of external geopolitical shifts. The fight between communities to be the leading group would never stop. And each community would seek or even beg for foreign support to protect its interests. Nothing would change and Lebanon would never reach stability, just as was the case during the various occupations of the country. Once again, a federation would cancel all of this. There would be no need for any community to seek protection from the others as they would all live peacefully side by side. In a federation, they would all unite in the face of outside threats to protect federal strategic interests. The current crises have shown that the Lebanese can self-manage and do better when the government is not involved
Ultimately, little government is good government for Lebanon. The current crises have shown that the Lebanese can self-manage and do better when the government is not involved. Moreover, despite the depth of the crisis and the geopolitical tensions, until now, security events have been limited. This is not due to the actions of the government or the political leaders, it is because of the actions of the people.
A Lebanese confederation would hence be a perfect embodiment of what the Lebanese are. Moreover, the versatility of federations allows for each state or region to vote on laws and move faster on what matters the most to them, while the others have a chance to witness this and decide whether or not to follow suit. It would definitely bring greater protection to each community and dissipate intra-confessional friction. Let each group have their own councils and vote on the laws that impact their everyday lives.
However, in the end, whether a strong executive or a federation, this is only the form and is meaningless without a vision, leadership and strategy, all of which are missing in Lebanon today. Short of this formulation, both systems are just useless dreams that will be crushed by those holding the AK-47s. The Lebanese urgently need to decide what they want their future to be like and encourage the formulation of a vision that is at the level of the ingenuity of the people. A good start might be to state what we stand for and not just what we stand against. Only then will the transition to a new political system be possible.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of Barbicane, a space-focused investment syndication platform. He is the CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 04-05/2023
Israel minister: Iran nuke enrichment could ignite region
ATHENS, Greece (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Israel’s defense minister claimed Thursday that Iran could have enough enriched uranium for five nuclear weapons, and warned Tehran that proceeding to weapons-grade enrichment could “ignite the region.” His remarks echoed international concerns, which have mounted over the past months, on Tehran enriching uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels. Experts have said that the Islamic Republic has enough fuel to build “several” atomic bombs if it chooses. “Make no mistake, Iran will not be satisfied by a single nuclear bomb,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Thursday during a visit to Athens. Uranium enriched for use in nuclear power plants is normally below 20%, while 90% enrichment is considered to be weapons grade. “So far, Iran has gained material enriched to 20% and 60% for five nuclear weapons," Gallant said. "Iranian progress, enrichment to 90%, would be a grave mistake on Iran’s part and could ignite the region.”Israel’s leadership argues that Iran can only be stopped from developing nuclear weapons by the threat of military action, while the United States publicly favors a return to multilateral diplomatic efforts. The International Atomic Energy Agency said in March it would restart inspections and camera-monitoring at some Iranian nuclear facilities after it reported that particles of highly enriched uranium were found at an underground nuclear site. In Athens, Gallant was hosted by Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos. The two promised to further enhance military cooperation. Greece last year launched a new international pilot training center, assisted by Israel and Israeli defense contractor Elbit in a $1.65 billion deal. And last month, Israel agreed to provide Greece with Spike anti-tank missiles in an agreement worth $400 million.

Iran Arrests Firm Managers for Backing Labor Strikes
London - Tehran/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Iranian authorities have arrested managers at companies for backing workers' strikes in an energy-producing region in the south, Iranian media reported Wednesday. "A number of managers" were arrested for "having supported the acts of counter-revolutionary elements" and "organized strikes" at South Pars projects, AFP quoted Fars news agency as saying. The offshore South Pars field in the Gulf — the world's largest known gas reserve, which Iran shares with Qatar — employs some 40,000 workers. More company officials will be arrested "in the coming days," it added. In April, the authorities said 4,000 of the workers on strike over pay and work conditions would be replaced. The Iran Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported that South Pars employees "have continued to put forward their collective demands," calling for "a 79-percent increase in wages" as well as an "end to discrimination" and the right to "freedom of association."In 2022, Iran witnessed several waves of strikes by teachers and bus drivers who protested low wages and high living costs. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that some labor protests have been helpful to the country. "These protests are actually helping the government and the system and making them understand" the demands of workers, Khamenei said. Since 2018, Iran's economy has been hit by US-led sanctions and spiraling inflation, along with record depreciation of the rial against the dollar. Meanwhile, Canada imposed additional sanctions on Iran on Wednesday over human rights violations in the country and abroad. The sanctions list one entity and nine people. The listed entity is Rajaei Prison, which witnessed a record number of executions and is an example of "the regime’s barbarism and neglect of human rights". Among the nine people designated by the Canadian government are members of the Morality Police, and deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in Balochistan. "We will continue to do everything in our power to respond to the destabilizing actions of the Iranian regime, which affect not only the Iranian people, but have implications for world peace and security,” said Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly.

Iran's Raisi, on Syria visit, urges anti-Israel unity
Associated Press/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called Thursday for "resistance forces" to unite against Israel on his second day in Syria -- the first such visit to Tehran's close ally in over a decade of war. Tehran has long provided logistical and military support to many factions fighting its arch-foe Israel, including some Palestinian groups but also Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah -- a major Damascus ally. Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes against Iran-backed forces in Syria since the conflict erupted in 2011. While it has rarely commented on the raids, Israel has repeatedly warned it will not allow Iran to extend its footprint in its war-torn northern neighbor. During his meetings in Damascus with what Iran's IRNA news agency called "Palestinian resistance commanders", Raisi appealed for a united front against Israel. "The unity and cohesion of the resistance forces, the region and the Islamic world is necessary to speed up the defeat of the Zionist regime," Raisi said in reference to Israel. "The Islamic republic always pursues the issue of Palestine as a priority in its foreign policy, and we believe that all the equations of the Islamic world are defined under this issue," he was quoted as saying by IRNA. Raisi's two-day visit to Syria comes weeks after Iran and its arch-rival Saudi Arabia agreed to restore ties, prompting regional capitals to re-engage with the internationally isolated governments in Damascus and Tehran. The Iranian president met his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday, praising him for "achieving victory" in the country's war.
The Syrian conflict has killed more than 500,000 people and displaced millions.While the front lines have mostly quietened in recent years, large parts of the country's north remain outside government control. Iran has long propped up Damascus with economic and military assistance, helping the Syrian government claw back most of the territory it lost at the start of the conflict. The Islamic republic is now positioning itself in a leading role as Assad seeks to focus on Syria's reconstruction, despite both countries remaining under heavy Western sanctions. Raisi, who arrived with a high-level ministerial delegation, also signed memoranda of understanding on "long-term strategic cooperation", covering fields including in oil, aviation, railways and agriculture. He said on Wednesday that Iran would "stand by its Syrian brothers in the field of development and progress".The last Iranian president to visit Damascus was Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in September 2010. Assad has officially visited Tehran twice since the war broke out, the last time in May 2022.

Microsoft: Iran Accelerates Its Cyber Influence Operations Worldwide
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
Microsoft warned that Iran is accelerating its cyber-enabled influence operations to go in tandem with its geopolitical goals worldwide. “Iran continues to be a significant threat actor, and it is now supplementing its traditional cyberattacks with a new playbook, leveraging cyber-enabled influence operations (IO) to achieve its geopolitical aims,” a report published by the company on Tuesday revealed. Microsoft has detected these efforts rapidly accelerating since June 2022. Microsoft said it attributed 24 unique cyber-enabled influence operations to the Iranian government last year compared to just seven in 2021.
The report added that most of Iran’s cyber-enabled influence operations are being run by Emennet Pasargad – which is sanctioned by the US Treasury Department for attempts to undermine the integrity of the 2020 US Presidential Elections. Though Iran’s techniques may have changed, its targets have not. These operations remain focused on Israel, prominent Iranian opposition figures and groups, and the Gulf countries, according to Microsoft. “Iran directed nearly a quarter (23%) of its cyber operations against Israel between October of 2022 and March of 2023, with the United States, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia also bearing the brunt of these efforts.” The goals of its cyber-enabled IO have included seeking to bolster Palestinian groups that are allied to Iran, fomenting unrest in Bahrain, and sowing panic and fear among Israeli citizens. “Iran has also adopted cyber-enabled IO to undercut the momentum of nationwide protests by leaking information that aims to embarrass prominent regime opposition figures.”Microsoft added that most of these operations have a predictable playbook, in which Iran uses a cyber persona to publicize and exaggerate a low-sophistication cyberattack, using the language of the target audience. “New Iranian influence techniques include their use of SMS messaging and victim impersonation to enhance the effectiveness of their amplification”, the report added.

Iranian Official Says Saudi Trade Delegation to Visit Tehran Soon
Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
A Saudi trade delegation will visit Iran soon to attend a business exhibition, said Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari on Wednesday. Running from May 7-10, Iran Expo 2023 is an exhibition focused on Iranian export potential and sponsored by the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran and the Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Trade. "In the next few days, a trade delegation from Saudi Arabia will come to Iran accompanied by a deputy minister to attend the Iran Expo exhibition," Reuters quoted Safari as telling Iranian media. In a mediated agreement brokered by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced on March 10 their decision to restore diplomatic ties and reopen their respective embassies and consulates within two months at most. This development was broadly welcomed by the Arab world and the international community. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani announced that Iranian missions in Saudi Arabia have taken their first steps to resume diplomatic activity in the Kingdom.

IAEA Affirms Reinstalling Surveillance Cameras in Iran

Vienna - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 May, 2023
The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed the reinstallation of surveillance cameras in Iran, as part of the recent deal between the IAEA director-general and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. IAEA's spokesman Fredrik Dahl told the German news agency (dpa) that work was “underway” to reinstall surveillance cameras at several sites. Yet, he didn’t point to the number of surveillance cameras or the sites where they will be reinstalled. The Washington-based Arms Control Agency reported that IAEA began reinstalling cameras at certain nuclear facilities which approach the nuclear threshold. In early March, IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi reached an agreement with Iranian officials to restart surveillance cameras at several nuclear sites and increase inspections at the Fordow facility. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on Monday that two delegations from the IAEA have visited Tehran following the recent deal, adding that “cooperation with them continues step by step”. Last June, Iran called on the IAEA to dismantle the cameras at its nuclear sites due to tension regarding the nuclear deal. Iran wishes to leave a good impression by allowing the reinstallation of the cameras before the IAEA Board of Governors' meeting in June. The cameras don’t grant the IAEA a better view of the nuclear facilities. Although there is footage from the time before the removal of the cameras, the international inspectors failed to access the data since Tehran abandoned the protocol of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in February 2021.Tehran said it would turn over the data collected from the cameras to the IAEA if the 2015 nuclear deal was restored.

Israel seized Binance crypto accounts to 'thwart' Islamic State, document shows
Tom Wilson and Angus Berwick/LONDON (Reuters)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Israel has seized around 190 crypto accounts at crypto exchange Binance since 2021, including two it said were linked to Islamic State and dozens of others it said were owned by Palestinian firms connected to the Islamist Hamas group, documents released by the country's counter-terror authorities show. Israel's National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing (NBCTF) on Jan. 12 confiscated two Binance accounts and their contents, one of the documents on the NBCTF's website showed. The seizure was to "thwart the activity" of Islamic State and "impair its ability to further its goals," the NBCTF said on its website. The NBCTF document, which has not been previously reported, did not give any details on the value of the crypto seized, nor how the accounts were connected to Islamic State. Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by trading volumes, did not respond to Reuters' calls and emails seeking comment. Israel's defence ministry, which is responsible for the NBCTF, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Under Israeli law, the country's defence minister can order the seizure and confiscation of assets that the ministry deems related to terrorism. Regulators globally have long called for tighter controls on crypto exchanges to prevent illegal activities, from money laundering to the financing of terrorism. The seizures by Israel's NBCTF highlight how governments are targeting crypto companies in their efforts to prevent illegal activity. Binance, founded in 2017 by CEO Changpeng Zhao, says on its website it reviews information requests from governments and law enforcement agencies on a case-by-case basis, disclosing information as legally required. Binance has also said it checks users for connections to terrorism and has "continued to invest tremendous resources to enhance its compliance program," it told U.S. senators in March in response to their requests for information on Binance's regulatory compliance and finances.
MILITANT GROUP
Islamic State emerged in Syria after Iraq's civil war. At its 2014 peak, it controlled a third of Iraq and Syria, before being beaten back. Now forced underground, Islamic State militants continue to wage insurgent attacks. The U.S. Treasury said in a report last year that Islamic State had received crypto donations it later converted to cash, accessing funds via crypto trading platforms. The Treasury did not specify which platforms and declined to comment for this article. The owner of the two Islamic State-linked Binance accounts seized by Israel was a 28-year old Palestinian called Osama Abuobayda, the NBCTF document shows. Abuoyada did not respond to requests for comment via email addresses and a phone number listed in the NBCTF document. In a series of investigations last year, Reuters reported that Binance intentionally kept weak anti-money laundering controls. Since 2017, Binance has processed over $10 billion in payments for criminals and companies seeking to evade U.S. sanctions, Reuters reported. Binance disputed the articles, calling the illicit-fund calculations inaccurate and the descriptions of its compliance controls "outdated." Two men suspected by Germany of assisting an Islamist gunman who killed four people in Vienna in 2020 used Binance, a letter from German police to the company said. Islamic State later claimed responsibility for the attack.
Binance shared information with the police on the clients, its legal representatives said last year. Reuters could not independently establish this.
MONEY EXCHANGERS
Nearly all of the 189 Binance accounts seized by Israel since Dec. 2021 were owned by three Palestinian currency exchange firms, the NBCTF documents showed. The three are designated by Israel as "terrorist organizations," according to a list on the NBCTF's website, for their alleged involvement in the transfer of funds by Hamas, which runs the Palestinian territory of Gaza. Last month, the NBCTF said in a document it had seized crypto worth over 500,000 shekels ($137,870) from over 80 Binance accounts belonging to the three Gaza-based companies, Al Mutahadun For Exchange, Dubai Company for Exchange and Al Wefaq Co. For Exchange. The accounts were the property of "terrorist organizations" or used for a "severe terror crime," the document said, without elaborating. Local media outlets in Israel previously reported the April seizures. A person with direct knowledge of Al Mutahadun said it did not work "at all" with crypto or cooperate with Hamas. "We are a money exchange company. Israeli allegations are all lies and are foundless," the person said. Al Mutahadun was designated as a "terrorist organisation" in May 2021 by Israel, the NBCTF list shows. Al Wefaq and Dubai Co. did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment via email and WhatsApp. Binance did not respond to Reuters' questions on the accounts owned by the three currency exchange companies. Hamas does not have any connection with the money exchange companies, spokesperson Hazem Qassem said. The allegations of links to the companies were an attempt by Israel to "justify its economic war against Gaza and its people," Qassem said. Hamas's armed wing said last week it would stop receiving funds in bitcoin after an increase in "hostile" activity against donors. Binance, its CEO Zhao and its former compliance chief Samuel Lim are facing civil charges from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for "wilful evasion" of U.S. commodities laws. Zhao has called the charges an "incomplete recitation of the facts." In its complaint, the CFTC said Lim received information in 2019 on Hamas' transactions at Binance. Lim told a colleague that "terrorists" usually send small sums of funds, as "large sums constitute money laundering," according to the CFTC complaint. Lim has not publicly responded to the charges. He did not respond to messages sent via Telegram seeking comment for this article.($1 = 3.6266 shekels)

Arab foreign ministers to discuss Syria, Sudan in Cairo
CAIRO (Reuters)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Arab foreign ministers will meet at the Arab League in Cairo on Sunday to discuss Syria, a League spokesman said, amid a regional push to normalise ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a decade of estrangement. The foreign ministers will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to address the conflict that erupted in Sudan last month, according to Gamal Roshdy, a spokesman for the Arab League's secretary general. Syria's membership in the Arab League was suspended in 2011 after a bloody crackdown on street protests against Assad that led to a devastating civil war, and many Arab states pulled their envoys out of Damascus. Recently, several Arab states including Saudi Arabia and Egypt have re-engaged with Syria in high-level visits and meetings, though some, including Qatar, remain opposed to full normalisation without a political solution to Syria's conflict. Arab states have been trying to reach consensus on whether to invite Assad to an Arab League summit on May 19 in Riyadh to discuss the pace of normalising ties and on what terms Syria could be allowed back. Saudi Arabia long resisted restoring relations with Assad but said after its recent rapprochement with Iran - Syria's key regional ally - that a new approach was needed with Damascus.

Iranian president meets Palestinian officials in Syria
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Iran’s president met senior Palestinian officials in Damascus and expressed his country’s support to them Thursday as Tehran and Syria signed a series of agreements. Damascus-based Palestinian official Khaled Abdul-Majid told The Associated Press that the delegation briefed Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi on the situation in the West Bank, Jerusalem and Gaza Strip. Iran has been a main backer of some Palestinian factions supplying them with weapons and money. “The Palestinian leaders thanked Iran for its support to the resistance and the Palestinian cause,” Abdul-Majid, who attended the talks, said after the meeting. He added that Raisi confirmed to the Palestinian officials, including top leaders from the militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, that Iran will continue supporting the Palestinians. Raisi began a two-day visit to Syria during which the two countries signed a series of long-term cooperation agreements on oil and other sectors to bolster economic ties between the two allies. Raisi held talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad and visited holy shrines for Shiite Muslims near the capital Damascus. Tehran has been a main backer of Assad’s government since a 2011 uprising turned into full-blown civil war and has played an instrumental role in turning the tide of the conflict in his favor. Iran has sent scores of military advisers and thousands of Iran-backed fighters from around the Middle East to Syria to fight on Assad’s side. Tehran has also been an economic lifeline for Assad, sending fuel and credit lines worth billions of dollars. Syrian government forces have regained control of large parts of the country in recent years, with the help of its two main allies — Russia and Iran. With Arab governments that once advocated Assad’s downfall now slowly making amends with Damascus, Iran appears to be hoping to reap the rewards for its decades-long support of the Syrian president with investment and economic opportunities to help alleviate its own ailing economy. Syrian state media said Raisi and Assad signed agreements and memorandums of understanding related to several sectors, including oil, agriculture, railways and free trade zones. Iran’s state-owned railway company has long aspired to expand its network through neighboring Iraq and Syria, linking it to the Syrian port of Latakia on the Mediterranean Sea to boost trade. Syria’s opposition and Tehran critics see this as another Iran attempt at growing its political influence. The deals are important also for Syria, whose economy has hit an all-time low over the past decade, with spiraling inflation, a currency plunge and rampant power cuts. The last Iranian president to visit Syria was President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2010.

Forces kill 3 Palestinians behind deaths of British-Israelis
NABLUS, West Bank (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Israeli troops on Thursday killed three Palestinian militants wanted in connection with a shooting attack that killed a British-Israeli woman and two of her daughters, the Israeli military said, the latest bloodshed in a relentless wave of violence. In a rare daytime incursion launched as residents were starting their day, the military said forces entered the heart of the flashpoint city of Nablus and raided an apartment where the men were located. Troops and the suspects exchanged fire and the three men were killed. The military said the men were behind an attack last month on a car near a Jewish West Bank settlement that killed Lucy Dee, the British-Israeli mother and two of her daughters, Maya and Rina. Leo Dee, the woman's widower, told The Associated Press he was “comforted” by the news of the militants' death. In a statement after the raid, the Hamas militant group said the three men, identified as Hassan Qatnani, Moaz al-Masri and Ibrahim Jabr, were its members and the group claimed responsibility for the April attack. In a separate incident Thursday near the West Bank town of Hawara, a 20-year-old soldier shot and killed 26-year-old Palestinian woman who had stabbed and lightly wounded him.
In Nablus, Israeli shells ripped through the roof of the gunmen’s safe house in the heart of Nablus' Old City, leaving nothing but twisted metal, cement blocks and torn mattresses still stained with blood scattered over the rubble. A couple of hours after the army withdrew, young men collected scores of ejected bullet shell casings from the narrow alleys. Nablus, the West Bank's commercial capital and second-largest city, has been the scene of repeated Israeli raids over the past year, but few have been conducted during the day because of the increased risk of friction with local residents. Residents have been caught up in previous fighting. Manal Abu Safiyeh, 57, said she woke up at 7 a.m. to the sounds of the Israeli army vehicles rumbling through the city. Although it wasn’t new to her after a year of intense violence in the Old City, the gunfire sounded closer than she’d ever heard it before. An explosion suddenly blew up her neighbor’s house, she said, killing three people. She said she didn’t know much about her neighbors other than that Ibrahim Jabr had cancer.
A man who identified himself only as Kareem for fear of reprisals said that he spotted older men and a woman in a long overgarment worn by Muslim women who he had never seen before walking through the limestone alleys and knew instantly they were Israeli special forces. He ran to his house and sheltered there until he heard the gunfire stop. “So many men from the city have been killed,” he said. “We are used to these raids. That’s the story of life in Nablus.”After the military pulled out, dozens of masked men paraded through the city while shooting into the air, waving Palestinian flags as onlookers honked in support. A sea of mourners at the men's funeral chanted “God is great.” The violence in Nablus comes at a particularly sensitive time in the region, days after a prominent Palestinian prisoner who was staging a lengthy hunger strike over his detention died in Israeli custody. His death set off a volley of rockets from militants in Gaza and Israeli airstrikes in the coastal enclave that killed one man. The deadly attack last month on the Israeli car shocked Israelis because in an instant it reduced the Dee family from seven members to four. Hundreds of people packed the funerals and the family's father, Leo, has been a recurring figure in Israeli media, saying he bears no hatred toward the killers of his family and calling for national unity amid a deep societal rift. “We’re grateful to God that this was done in a way that protected the lives of the soldiers and caused minimal if no civilian casualties, as far as we know. And of course, that’s very important to us that innocent Palestinians were not injured in this operation,” Leo Dee told The Associated Press from his home in the Jewish West Bank settlement of Efrat. Israeli officials said the raid showed attackers would be hunted down eventually. “Our message to those who harm us, and those who want to harm us, is that whether it takes a day, a week or a month – you can be certain that we will settle accounts with you,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement. Israel has been staging near-nightly arrest raids into West Bank villages, towns and cities for more than a year in an operation prompted by a wave of Palestinian attacks against Israelis last year. Israel says the raids are meant to dismantle militant networks and thwart future attacks. The Palestinians see the attacks as further entrenchment of Israel's 56-year, open-ended occupation of lands they seek for a future independent state. Israel captured those territories — the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip — in the 1967 Mideast war. Some 250 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the raids were launched. Israel says most have been militants, but stone-throwing youth and people not involved in the confrontations have also been killed. The raids have been met by a surge in Palestinian attacks. Since last spring, nearly 50 people have been killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis.

U.S. Blasts 'Ludicrous' Russian Claim Of Plotting Putin Assassination Attempt
Marita Vlachou/HuffPost/May 4, 2023
John Kirby, the National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, on Thursday denied Russia’s allegation that the U.S. was behind a drone attack it said was intended to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin. Dmitry Peskov, a Putin spokesperson, said the U.S. was “undoubtedly” responsible for what Moscow has described as a “terrorist attack.”“Mr. Peskov is lying,” Kirby told “CNN This Morning.” “It’s a ludicrous claim. The United States had nothing to do with this.” Kirby added that the U.S. is still unclear on the details of the incident. Unnamed U.S. officials told Politico they are working to determine whether the attack was orchestrated by Kyiv or a pro-Ukraine rogue group, or whether it was a false flag operation by the Kremlin. “But I can assure you the United States had no role in it whatsoever,” Kirby told CNN. “We neither encourage nor do we enable Ukraine to strike outside Ukraine’s borders.”The New York Times verified footage showing two explosions within 15 minutes above the Kremlin overnight Wednesday. The Kremlin said the incident was “a planned terrorist act and an attempt on the life of the president of Russia.”In his press conference Thursday, Peskov alleged Washington masterminded the attack, without offering evidence. “Attempts to disown this, both in Kyiv and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous,” the Kremlin spokesperson said. “We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv but in Washington.” Moscow previously claimed Ukraine was responsible for the attack. Kyiv has denied involvement. “I’ve seen the reports. I can’t in any way validate them. We simply don’t know,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday of Russia’s allegations about Ukraine’s involvement. “I would take anything coming out of the Kremlin with a very large shaker of salt, so let’s see.”

Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and UN to discuss grain deal on Friday
ISTANBUL (Reuters)/Thu, May 4, 2023
Technical personnel from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations will meet on Friday to discuss a deal that allows the exports of Ukrainian grains on the Black Sea, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said. The evacuation of Turkish-flagged ships and grain shipments from Black Sea ports as part of the deal will be discussed, Akar said. Ankara is working to extend the deal that will expire on May 18. Friday's meeting would be technical and it would be followed up by a deputy ministers' meeting next week, a Turkish defence ministry statement cited Akar as saying. "We continue our efforts to ensure that the grain initiative continues in a fast, safe, and planned manner. We got the impression from discussions that these efforts will produce positive results," Akar said. The United Nations and Turkey brokered what was described as a package deal in July last year - the safe resumption of Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports and a U.N. commitment to help Russian shipments of grain and fertilizer. Russia has a list of demands it wants met for continuation of the Black Sea pact, which the U.N. said helps tackle a global food crisis aggravated by Moscow's war in Ukraine.

Details in the drone incident the Kremlin says aimed to assassinate Putin 'don't quite add up.' Experts have 3 theories on what happened.
Mia Jankowicz,Sophia Ankel,Ryan Pickrell/ Business Insider/May 4/2023
Russia claimed Wednesday that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin with a drone attack at the Kremlin. Experts say there are some things that "don't quite add up." They came up with three theories on what might have happened based on what little is known. Security cameras captured striking footage of two drones, one of which can be seen exploding on video, above the hardened Kremlin citadel this week.
Russian officials claimed the overnight drone incident was an attempt by Kyiv to assassinate its leader, but with little evidence linking it to the drones. Ukraine says it wasn't them. So who was responsible?
In a war rife with propaganda, experts told Insider that they see hallmarks of Ukraine's long-range drone attacks and also of Russia's staged attempts to justify dangerous escalations to try to break the military stalemate. If it was a Ukrainian attack, it would suggest its leaders risked a major escalation with a poorly executed plan, with too few explosives and Putin not there anyway. And then there's the questions about how the drones got so close to the seat of power in one of the world's most defended capitols. There are a number of things in this mystery that still don't make sense or simply don't add up.
Video from the incident shows one of the drones explode and rain down flaming debris over the Kremlin, potentially after being intercepted by Russian defenses. It also shows what appears to be two people on the roof of the building for an unexplained purpose.
Blaming Ukraine, the Kremlin characterized the incident Wednesday as a "planned terrorist act and an attempt on the president's life," though there was no actual threat to Putin, given that he was not there at the time. The Kremlin said Russia "reserves the right to take retaliatory measures," but since Russia is already waging war in Ukraine and striking its population centers with long-range missiles, it is unclear how Moscow might escalate.
Ukraine denied any involvement in the strike, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying: "We don't attack Putin or Moscow."
But experts told Insider that despite bold statements from both countries, much remains uncertain. "There is a lot we still don't know about this strike," said Samuel Bendett, a Center for Naval Analyses expert on Russian defense and drones.
James Patton Rogers, a military historian and adviser to NATO on drones and warfare, said that "there's a few things that don't quite add up in this situation."
Bendett, for instance, noted that "it seems strange" that the unmanned aircraft managed to fly so close to the Kremlin complex, seemingly evading most of Moscow's layered air defenses. These defenses, especially for critical targets like the Kremlin, have been bolstered since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but, that being said, questions have come up about Russian force protection capabilities.
Emphasizing that their thoughts at this stage are highly speculative at best, the experts outlined three possible scenarios that could explain Wednesday's dramatic events in the Russian capital.
Scenario 1: Ukraine sends a warning For starters, there's the possibility Ukraine was behind the attack, as the Russians claim. They certainly have ample motive and assets.
Ukraine has previously denied activities in Russia or on Russian-occupied territory only to later acknowledge involvement, such as when its forces struck Russian military targets in Crimea last summer. And though they didn't claim responsibility, there have also been strikes on military bases deep in Russian territory attributed to Ukraine. So Ukraine's denial of responsibility is being taken with a grain of salt by some observers. "One explanation could be that it was launched by Ukraine to demonstrate the increased ability to launch deep precision strikes at one of the world's most secure and reinforced targets," wrote Patton Rogers on Twitter. The type of drone used is still an open question, but none of potential models experts flagged for Insider rule Ukraine out as a suspect.
Dr. Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, said, based on observing its flight pattern in the video, that it could be a small Chinese-made quadcopter, a fairly ubiquitous system. Bendett identified other possibilities as the Chinese-made Mugin-5 or the Ukrainian PD-1.
Both Patton Rogers and Bendett told Insider that it is feasible the drone used could be the UJ-22, a fixed-wing drone often used by Ukrainian forces. Bendett said the "UJ-22 has a long range and can potentially reach Moscow."The UJ-22 is capable of autonomously flying around 500 miles towards a pre-set target. Its ability to fly comparatively low, and slowly, would potentially help it evade some radar, Patton Rogers said.  Social media imagery suggests that the same model was used in an attempted drone strike on a Gazprom site near Moscow in February, as The Guardian reported at the time.
"One hypothesis — and it is a hypothesis because we don't know the details — could be that that strike a couple of months ago has allowed Ukraine to see what the first, or indeed the second layer of air defense for Russia consists of," Patton Rogers told Insider.
But even if Ukraine were behind it, the likelihood of it being a serious attempt on Putin's life seems small, he said. "If it was truly an assassination attempt as opposed to a show of strength, then the payload seems rather small from the explosions that we've seen," Patton Rogers said, pointing to the relatively small blast seen in the video, suggesting its explosive payload was likely too small to penetrate a reinforced building. "It would be odd to send in just one or two of these systems and to give away the element of surprise without knowing exactly where Putin was," he added. Miron agreed that this would likely be more of a signal — to say that "even the Kremlin is vulnerable" after Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukraine. "You could interpret it as a sort of warning," she said, noting that "next time it might be more explosive, or a swarm of drones."
Scenario 2: Russia was behind it
The signs are also there: Putin was never at risk. The iconic building suffered minimal damage. And politicians immediately seized on this to argue that Russia itself is under attack. Patton Rogers told Insider that it's possible the strike and the accompanying rhetoric was orchestrated by Russia to justify a possible assassination attack on Ukraine's Zelenskyy. Russia has engaged in so-called false flag actions to justify military action, and Russian rhetoric and actions during and just before the start of the Ukraine war repeatedly set off alarm bells abroad. Casting doubt on Russia's accusations, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that Russian allegations often have to be taken with "a very large shaker of salt." Claiming that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin would potentially "open up a new norm in the war," Patton Rogers said. To be sure, Russia has repeatedly tried — and failed — to capture or eliminate Zelenskyy since the war started more than a year ago, though perhaps Russia now plans to pursue a decapitation strategy more aggressively. Presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak told local media last year that the Ukrainian leader had survived more than a dozen assassination attempts. Senior US officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns, were also aware of these plots. That doesn't rule out a false-flag operation, but it may mean a different motive. US intelligence said last year that a group of Russian operatives were conducting a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, which would offer Moscow potential justification to mobilize more troops. On Twitter Wednesday, presidential adviser Podolyak said "Russia is clearly preparing a large-scale terrorist attack." Another potential motivation would be to bolster popular support for the war, Miron said. "Russia needs some sort of justification for why they are continuing to stay in Ukraine," she said. "And so this has a message for the domestic populace to say, 'Look how dangerous Ukraine is. They're even trying to kill Putin.'"no drone zone sign near Kremlin in Moscow Russia
Scenario 3: The work of anti-Putin Russians
"A third option could be that this has nothing to do with the Ukrainian military at all," said Patton Rogers, raising the possibility that dissident groups in Russia were responsible. Podolyak made pretty much this exact claim in a tweet, saying the attack "can only indicate the guerilla activities of local resistance forces. As you know, drones can be bought at any military store." There have been multiple reports of attacks on critical infrastructure and assassination attempts throughout Russia's war in Ukraine, some of which have been claimed by various dissident groups. Russia's mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops last fall catalyzed resistance to Putin's regime, but most of their attacks have come against mobilization centers run by the Russian defense ministry. Patton Rogers said he hasn't "seen any indication" that such groups have the capacity to use drones in their attacks. "So that would be a leap of imagination based on the empirical data that we have at this moment in time," he said. Miron also acknowledged this possibility but pointed out that Moscow is highly secure with facial recognition cameras, which would be a strong deterrent for a local trying to launch and control a strike drone, better yet, two of them.
"Such an act would mean that the probability of this person being caught would be very, very high," she said. "I guess we'll never know the truth," Miron concluded. "Maybe if documents get declassified in a hundred years, then we'll know what exactly happened."

In Ukraine’s forests, fighters race to prepare for next push
SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL UKRAINE (AP)/Thu, May 4, 2023
The fighters depart at dawn, single-file, rifles slung, compasses in hand, and disappear like chameleons into the lush greenery of central Ukraine’s dense forests. They’re training for a long-anticipated campaign that Ukraine hopes will shift the momentum of its war with Russia. It’s a crash course in new assault tactics for the National Guard squad, a mix of volunteers whose ages range from 22 to 51. The squad is part of a brigade that’s been chosen to prepare for a counteroffensive, and it’s had just a few months to train on new skills and incorporate new recruits. By their own admission, the servicemen have outdated weapons, and many feared not enough training or resources. But they said when the time comes, they will be ready to fight. The Associated Press joined a unit of the Stalevy Kordon or Steel Border, a brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard. Over a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, the war’s front lines have been all but static for months, with Russian forces holding nearly a fifth of the country. The U.S. and other allies have boosted Ukraine’s arsenal with modern weaponry, but critical shortages of ammunition and manpower persist. The squad’s men, and its leaders, have no idea when or where the counteroffensive will begin. But they know they haven’t got long to prepare. “We are preparing for big actions right now. No one will tell us what they are. We get an order — maybe tomorrow, maybe in one month, we don’t know — to go to point ‘X,'” said one of the squad’s leaders, known by his call sign Grunwald. “We are preparing every day.” The unit spoke to the AP on the condition that they be identified only by first names or call signs and that the region where the trainings are taking place not be named. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said preparations for the advance “are coming to an end.”
Details beyond that are scarce.
“As soon as it is God’s will, the weather and the commanders’ decision, we will do it,” Reznikov added in a online briefing on Friday. In the forest, the servicemen tread carefully, the earth crunching underfoot as their eyes and ears stay alert for signs of enemy drones or vehicles passing by. Every few minutes they halt to assess unusual sounds, crouching low and ready to shoot. Serhii, a former airport immigration officer, chain smokes and checks his compass every few meters. They were supposed to go 8 kilometers (about 5 miles) over two hours, but they have been walking for nearly three hours already. They stop for a break under the shade of giant pines. Roma, among the youngest fighters there, is worried. “I think we went too far,” he said. The day’s test, prepared by Grunwald, contains multiple elements: Move through the thick woodlands undetected, launch drones to uncover exact enemy coordinates, pass the coordinates to the artillery unit, and then dive in for the assault. Most important, the fighters must not be seen. One small error, and the entire operation — and squad — is lost. To prepare for the possibility of Russian GPS jamming, they’re using only compasses to navigate. Russia has spent years building up high-power jamming systems capable of emitting radio waves to spoof or throw off GPS navigation. The traditional compass can’t be jammed. But it’s harder to use. A single degree of compass error could throw the squad 100 meters (yards) off course. The squad must learn how to reach the target despite this. When squad commander Mazhor — a call sign meaning “rich guy” — presents the plan, one fighter scoffs. “He thinks that one person is a robot capable of assaulting a trench, securing the enemy’s logistics hub, capturing an airport, stealing an MiG jet and landing it in Moscow, right?” Ihor said. “This is a war of artillery and drones,” said Grunwald. But the unit does not have enough of either. The fighters carry old rifles and use simple quadcopter drones for reconnaissance missions. Grunwald is currently trying to raise money to buy more advanced drones that would be easier to use, ideally ones that can carry bombs. Squad members often bring up the limits of their training. Some tell Mazhor his directives would be confusing on a real battlefield. They criticize comrades for not being more vigilant. But every serviceman asked said he'd be ready when ordered into battle. “At beginning of war, we didn’t know anything, but now we are more experienced,” said Serhii. “All these trainings are making us sharper. We will be ready.“After a long detour, the squad members eventually find their way to the point where the reconnaissance drone is launched to pinpoint enemy positions. The coordinates are passed to the mortar unit.
“Victory in five minutes,” said Serhii, speaking into a walkie-talkie. In the end, they emerged after eight hours, having trekked 18 kilometers (11 miles) through swamp, dirt and brush. The coordinates they sent were a little off, missing the key targets in the enemy position. “The personnel completed the objective to 90%,” said Mazhor. In a real battle, an operation like this takes days, with painstaking planning done in advance. “They were disoriented at some point, they went a bit off course.”“A 10% mistake,” he added. “As the unit commander, I think 10% is a very good result.”

US envoy to UN urges Brazil to see Ukrainian side to the war
Anthony Boadle/BRASILIA (Reuters)May 4, 2023
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield has encouraged Brazil to include Ukraine in any efforts to negotiate an end to "Russia's war of aggression," she said on Thursday at the end of a visit to the South American country. Thomas-Greenfield said she expressed U.S. disappointment in Brasilia over the statements made regarding the war, referring to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's comments calling on the West to stop arming Ukraine to allow peace talks to start. "We are not telling Brazil not to engage on peace," the ambassador told a news conference. "What we said is that any engagement has to take Ukraine into account, and it cannot be a negotiation based on rewarding Russia for taking territory during their unprovoked war on Ukraine," she said. Thomas-Greenfield said she encouraged Brazilian officials to visit Ukraine and confirmed that Lula's foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, plans to travel to Kyiv though he gave no date. "My assumption is that it is going be soon," she told reporters. Fighting climate change, defending democracy and promoting racial equality and inclusion were on her agenda of discussions with Brazilian officials during the three-day visit that included a trip to former colonial capital Salvador in the northern state of Bahia, which she called "the heart of Black Brazil." The relations between the two largest democracies in the Western Hemisphere are "enduring and built on shared values," she said. Thomas-Greenfield recalled that at the United Nations Brazil supported an early U.N. resolution in the General Assembly condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and more recently a U.N. peace resolution.

U.S. tries to stop war between Armenia, Azerbaijan in already volatile Eastern Europe
Tracy Wilkinson/ Los Angeles Times/May 4, 2023
The Biden administration is hosting risky peace talks this week between bitter South Caucasus rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan, hoping to avert a second major war in Eastern Europe with the two sides far apart.
The talks — the first to bring together the foreign ministers of the two countries in a room for multiple days — started Sunday night and are scheduled to end Thursday. U.S. officials have been tight-lipped about whether any progress has been made. “We remain committed to promoting a peaceful future for the South Caucasus region,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said on Wednesday. “We believe that peace between these two countries is possible. We believe that there is not a military solution to this.”
But military actions have overshadowed diplomatic gestures in recent months. The two former Soviet republics have disputed territory for years. Fighting in 2020 killed nearly 7,000 soldiers, and deadly skirmishes broke out again just last month. The crux of the dispute is a breakaway enclave of territory within Azerbaijan that is populated by ethnic Armenians and controlled by pro-Armenian separatists. The contested region is known to Azerbaijan as Nagorno-Karabakh, and to Armenians as Artsakh, a mountainous area slightly larger than Rhode Island. Russia, the European Union, Turkey and even Iran have had their fingers in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict at one time or another. The United States stepped into the fray late last year when Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, on the margins of the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, pulled together his counterparts, Ararat Mirzoyan of Armenia and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, for an initial contact. Blinken is overseeing this week’s talks with Mirzoyan and Bayramov, who have consistently appeared somber in photographs released from the meeting site just outside Washington.
Ahead of the meetings, Blinken spoke with the top leaders of both countries, urging diplomacy but also scolding Azerbaijan for blocking access to Nagorno-Karabakh by setting up a checkpoint along the Lachin corridor, the lone land route between Armenia and the disputed enclave.
Armenia claims the restricted access has denied the population food, medicine and other humanitarian needs. "We have not parsed our words about the need for the free flow of traffic and people and commerce through the Lachin corridor," Patel said. "That continues to be the case." The U.S. is often seen as favoring Armenia, primarily because of support in Congress for large Armenian American constituencies in Southern California and elsewhere.
But some U.S.-based pro-Armenia activists criticize the Biden administration for continued military aid to Azerbaijan and what they consider to be insufficient humanitarian aid for the Nagorno-Karabakh region. “For our government to truly act as an honest broker, they must stop military aid to the aggressor,” Aram Hamparian, executive director of the Armenian National Committee of America, said. He was not optimistic about the outcome of this week’s meetings. The Azerbaijan Embassy in Washington did not return telephone calls seeking comment. Alliances in the conflict have shifted over the years. Initially, Russia backed majority-Christian Armenia over majority-Muslim Azerbaijan, which had the support of Turkey.But Russia is now bogged down in its disastrous war on Ukraine and less able to supply Armenia with weapons and other material support, analysts say. Armenia also came away from the fighting in 2020 with heavy losses and was forced to cede some territory to Azerbaijan under the terms of a Russia-brokered cease-fire agreement.
A report by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence late last year predicted Azerbaijan would be the “country most likely to renew large-scale conflict” in an effort to “consolidate and expand the gains” from 2020.
“Armenia is less likely to initiate fighting because of the deteriorated state of its military in the aftermath of the 2020 conflict,” the report said. “The Armenian Armed Forces suffered heavy equipment and personnel losses during the conflict in 2020 and have been unable to reconstitute because of funding and procurement issues.”That may make Armenia more willing to compromise, analysts say, despite what some perceive as having the U.S. in its corner. While U.S. officials have not discussed details of the meetings, reports in Armenian and Azerbaijan media suggest the two countries will sign a “normalization” pact, which would open the way to renewed ties and broader agreements.


Norway oil fund to back climate resolution at refiner Valero's AGM
LBCI/May 4, 2023
Norway's $1.4 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest stock market investor, said on Thursday it will vote in favor of a shareholder resolution calling on US refiner Valero Energy (VLO.N) to issue a report on climate goals.
The vote on a plan for Valero to release short-, medium- and long-term reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions was called by a shareholder asking the company to align with the Paris climate agreement's goal of limiting global warming. Valero's board has recommended that the motion should be rejected, saying that the requested targets could only be met by refinery closures and that the company will instead run a "resilient" operation pursuing low-carbon fuel production. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which operates the Norwegian fund, said last year that it plans to take a tougher line on companies in its portfolio that do not adopt sufficiently credible climate plans. Valero's board should account for material sustainability risks facing the company as well as the broader environmental and social consequences of its operations and products, NBIM said on its website. "Sustainability disclosures should be aligned with applicable global reporting standards and frameworks to support investors in their analysis of risks and opportunities," it added. NBIM will also vote against the reappointment of Valero CEO and Chair Joe Gorder to the company's board, in line with the fund's long-held view that the two key positions should be held by separate individuals. Valero did not immediately respond to a request for comment when contacted by Reuters. The Norwegian fund, built on cash from Norway's oil and gas industry, held a 1.07% stake in Valero at the end of 2022 with a value of $523 million, the last available data.

Canada is considering expelling Chinese diplomat for targeting lawmaker
Reuters/May 4, 2023
Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said on Thursday she is considering expelling a Chinese diplomat after a 2021 intelligence report said the official had sought to track down a Canadian lawmaker's family in Hong Kong to intimidate them. "My deputy minister right now is meeting with the Chinese ambassador and summoning him, and that's why also we're assessing different options including the expulsion of diplomats," Joly said in a parliamentary committee meeting. Joly was replying to a question from Michael Chong, the member of parliament with the opposition Conservative Party who had been singled out in the intelligence report after he backed a motion in parliament declaring China's treatment of the Uyghur Muslim minority genocide. "Why do you minister continue to allow this diplomat to be accredited in this country?" Chong said. On Monday Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper said that China sought information about Chong and his family in a likely effort to "make an example" of him and "deter others from taking anti-PRC positions." The Chinese consulate in Toronto denied the report. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he found out about the intelligence report from the newspaper, and on Wednesday blamed the spy agency for not passing it onto him at the time. But on Thursday Chong said he had been told by Trudeau's own national security advisor that the report had been circulated to the Privy Council Office, which supports the prime minister and his Cabinet, in 2021. Late on Wednesday, China sharply criticized Trudeau's comment linking Chinese-produced lithium to slave labor, and warned Canada could face consequences if it continues "denigrating maliciously" the human rights situation in China. "His words disregarded facts and confounded black with white. The Chinese side expresses its strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to this," the Chinese Embassy in Ottawa said in a statement. "The Canadian side should respect facts, set aside prejudice, and stop denigrating maliciously the human rights situation in China, otherwise Canada will certainly take the consequences."Trudeau's office said it did not have anything to add to his comments from last week.

UN fails to raise enough money for Yemen oil tanker operation
Reuters/May 4, 2023
The United Nations on Thursday fell far short of raising the money it needs for an operation to salvage 1.1 million barrels of oil from a decaying vessel moored off Yemen's coast and avert an environmental disaster. UN officials have been warning for years that the Red Sea and Yemen's coastline was at risk as the Safer tanker could spill four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska. The war in Yemen suspended maintenance operations on the Safer in 2015. The UN has warned its structural integrity has significantly deteriorated and it is at risk of exploding. Deputy UN spokesperson Farhan Haq said the UN was confident a salvage operation could begin by the end of May. "We have available internal financial mechanisms if there are still gaps. That would, of course, need to be replenished by donors," Haq said. The United Nations has said the clean-up of a spill could cost $20 billion, but yet it is struggling to raise the $129 million needed to remove the oil from the Safer and transfer it to a tanker, the Nautica, the UN bought for $55 million. Around $99 million has been raised from governments, private donors and crowdfunding. A UN event co-hosted by Britain and the Netherlands on Thursday hoped to raise the remaining $29 million needed for the emergency phase, but Haq said only $5.6 million was pledged. An additional $19 million was required for a critical second phase, Haq said. The Nautica was procured by the UN in March and set sail from China in early April. The salvage operation cannot be paid for by the sale of the oil because it is not clear who owns it, the UN has said. Yemen has been mired in conflict since the Iran-aligned Houthi group ousted the government from the capital Sanaa in late 2014. A Saudi Arabia-led military coalition intervened in 2015 aiming to restore the government.
Peace initiatives have seen increased momentum since Riyadh and Tehran in March agreed to restore diplomatic ties severed in 2016.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 04-05/2023
Jordanian MP Lauded as "Hero" for Smuggling Weapons into Israel
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/May 4, 2023
Why would a member of the Jordanian parliament who hates Israel with a passion and supports a terror group whose charter calls for the elimination of Israel try to smuggle weapons? To kill Jews.
That is precisely why Al-Adwan is seen by many Jordanians and Palestinians as a "hero" and a "brave man."
It is not difficult to imagine the public outcry had an Israeli MP been caught trying to smuggle weapons into Jordan or any other country.
Sadly, the campaign of solidarity with the Jordanian parliament member who was caught while trying to smuggle a large cache of weapons into Israel signals the hatred that Jordanians and Palestinians feel towards Israel and Jews.
This hate is the direct result of decades of indoctrination and brainwashing of Jordanians and Palestinians. Israel does not harbor any bad feelings towards Jordan. The opposite is true. Israel has always been supportive of the Jordanian monarchy and the stability of the Hashemite regime was and still is an important cornerstone of Israel's security.
As for the international community and the mainstream media in the West, they could learn from the failed smuggling attempt that Israel's security concerns are not unjustified and not exaggerated. This week, over 100 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel, a country roughly the size of Victoria Island. What would the UK do if one rocket – let alone 100 – were fired into England? Or Germany, if rockets were fired at Munich? Or France, if rockets were fired at Nice or Cannes or St. Tropez?
Israel daily faces attempts by Hamas and other terror groups to carry out terrorist attacks to kill Jews. The next time people complain about "tough Israeli security measures," please remind them of that?
Imad Al-Adwan, a member of Jordan's parliament, is being praised as a "hero" by many Jordanians and Palestinians after he was reportedly caught trying to smuggle hundreds of guns into Israel. Pictured: The Israeli side of the Allenby Bridge crossing between Israel and Jordan. (
Imad Al-Adwan, a member of Jordan's parliament, is being praised as a "hero" by many Jordanians and Palestinians after he was reportedly caught trying to smuggle weapons into Israel.
On April 22, Israeli authorities arrested Al-Adwan, 35, when he tried to cross from Jordan into Israel through the Allenby Bridge border crossing. A video posted on social media showed the contents of three bags containing 100 kilograms of gold, 12 automatic rifles and 270 semi-automatic pistols discovered in his possession.
Al-Adwan is known for his staunch vocal support for the Iranian-backed Palestinian terror group, Hamas. In a video posted on social media, he said: "We send our greetings and respect to the Palestinian resistance groups, Hamas and the Arab symbol Abu Obaidah [spokesman of Hamas' military wing, Izaddin Al-Qassam]." It is safe to assume that the weapons the Jordanian MP tried to smuggle were intended for the use of Hamas or other Palestinian terror groups in their Jihad (holy war) against Israel. His anti-Israel statements and support for Hamas had already turned Al-Adwan into a "hero" in the eyes of many Jordanians and Palestinians.
He has repeatedly referred to Israel as "the Zionist entity," implying that he does not recognize its right to exist. He has also denounced the Jordanian ambassador to Israel for dining with Jews and called for cutting off diplomatic relations between Israel and Jordan.
Now, Al-Adwan is being praised by Arabs because he allegedly tried to smuggle weapons into Israel. Why would a member of the Jordanian parliament who hates Israel with a passion and supports a terror group whose charter calls for the elimination of Israel try to smuggle weapons? To kill Jews.
That is precisely why Al-Adwan is seen by many Jordanians and Palestinians as a "hero" and a "brave man." This is a Jordanian member of parliament who apparently decided to take his anti-Israel agenda to the next level by smuggling assault rifles and pistols to terror groups. It is not difficult to imagine the public outcry had an Israeli MP been caught trying to smuggle weapons into Jordan or any other country.
Al-Adwan is a lawyer and holds a master's degree in international law. As such, one would expect him to be aware of the implications of attempting to smuggle weapons across an international border, especially into a country that has diplomatic relations and a peace treaty with Jordan.
Instead of demanding that Al-Adwan be put on trial in Jordan for breaking the law and harming his country's relations with Israel, several Jordanians are condemning Israel for arresting him and are demanding his immediate and unconditional release from Israeli detention.
According to Abdel Bari Atwan, a Palestinian newspaper editor based in London:
"Representative Imad Al-Adwan has turned into a popular hero, not only among his tribe, but rather among all members of other Jordanian clans, and Jordanian citizens in general and from different origins and races... Whatever the purpose of his smuggling of the arsenal of weapons and gold, undertaking it was a great national honor because the aim was to reach the Palestinian resistance in the West Bank and other occupied territories...
"The overwhelming majority of Jordanians says that he (the Jordanian MP) is a brave national hero, whether his goal is trade, or the delivery of weapons to the resistance, because the two possibilities end up supporting the resistance and reflect courage and a national, religious and moral commitment to solidarity with the Palestinian people."
Atwan warned that the Jordanian government's failure to have Al-Adwan quickly released from Israeli detention "may lead to military action by his tribe."
"We do not rule out several options, most notably kidnapping Israeli soldiers or civilians and taking them hostage and using them as a bargaining chip... Jordan is changing in a quick manner and the popular and official discontent has reached its climax. This explains Jordan's openness to Iran and the axis of resistance." Murad Adaileh, Secretary-General of the Islamic Action Front party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, also voiced support for Al-Adwan:
"What MP Imad Al-Adwan did when he tried to deliver weapons to Palestine to resist the [Israeli] occupation is a legal obligation and a national necessity.... The duty of the [Jordanian] government is to seek his release."
Echoing the widespread support for the detained Jordanian parliament member, prominent Palestinian political activist Fayez Abu Shamala wrote that Arabs and Muslims are proud of Al-Adwan. "Imad Al-Adwan, you are the path to the end of the Zionist state," Abu Shamala said. "You are not alone, Imad!"
Another Palestinian, Waseem Moukhtar, heaped praise on the Jordanian parliament member for his support for the Palestinians and for "translating words into deeds, adding:
""From Palestine, we affirm our solidarity and support for him until he obtains his freedom. We demand that the Jordanian monarch work to secure his release."
Sadly, the campaign of solidarity with the Jordanian parliament member who was caught while trying to smuggle a large cache of weapons into Israel signals the hatred that Jordanians and Palestinians feel towards Israel and Jews.
This hate is the direct result of decades of indoctrination and brainwashing of Jordanians and Palestinians. Israel does not harbor any bad feelings towards Jordan. The opposite is true. Israel has always been supportive of the Jordanian monarchy and the stability of the Hashemite regime was and still is an important cornerstone of Israel's security. Recently, Israel agreed to provide water-scarce Jordan with 200 million cubic meters of desalinated water.
Had the Jordanian parliament member called for normalizing Jordan's relations with Israel, he would have likely been denounced by many Arabs as a traitor. Instead, he is being lauded because Jordanians and Palestinians believe he was on a mission to deliver weapons to terrorists who want to kill Jews.
The Jordanians would do well to understand that the charges against Al-Adwan, if true, mean that Hamas or other Islamist groups are active in Jordan and are using the kingdom and its elected representatives to smuggle weapons into Israel. These weapons could also easily be used by the terrorists to undermine security and stability in Jordan.
The Jordanians might also understand that the association of a parliament member with terrorism will cause damage to Jordanian diplomats and government officials, especially when they travel to other countries. Why should any country trust these diplomats and officials not to be smuggling weapons to destabilize them? If and when Al-Adwan is handed back to Jordan, it would serve Jordan's interest to put him on trial for his involvement in the smuggling attempt and for harming Jordan's national security worldwide by being affiliated with terrorism.
Israel should insist that the parliament member stand trial in Jordan if Israeli authorities decide to release him from detention. Israel should also protest to Jordan against the ongoing campaign of incitement against Israel in the Jordanian, especially in light of the Al-Adwan case.
As for the international community and the mainstream media in the West, they could learn from the failed smuggling attempt that Israel's security concerns are not unjustified and not exaggerated. This week, over 100 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel, a country roughly the size of Victoria Island. What would the UK do if one rocket – let alone 100 – were fired into England? Or Germany, if rockets were fired at Munich? Or France, if rockets were fired at Nice or Cannes or St. Tropez?
Israel daily faces attempts by Hamas and other terror groups to carry out terrorist attacks to kill Jews. The next time people complain about "tough Israeli security measures," please remind them of that?
*Bassam Tawil is Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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The new – or perhaps renewed – Cold War ...You can’t win it if you don’t know you’re in it
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 04/2023
On Christmas Day, 1991, the Soviet Union ceased to exist, and the Cold War ended. Or did it?
The answer depends on whether the Cold War was a conflict between two powerful nation-states or a struggle between two opposing ideologies.
If it was the latter, the Cold War didn’t end with the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Rather, following a hiatus, Communist cold warriors in Moscow were superseded by Communist cold warriors in Beijing. And leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) take Marxism/Leninism at least as seriously as did the last Soviet rulers.
Why did we not see this transition? Largely because the conventional – and bipartisan – wisdom held that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was slip-sliding away from communism, embracing freer markets and freer trade in pursuit of prosperity. Other freedoms would surely follow. We Americans could facilitate these historical changes.
Notably, in 2001, President Clinton successfully pushed to give the PRC permanent normal trade relations with the U.S and membership in the World Trade Organization, a foundational institution in the rules-based international order established by Americans following World War II.
“Everything I have learned about China as president and before and everything I have learned about human nature in over a half-century of living now,” Mr. Clinton said at the time, “convinces me that we have a far greater chance of having a positive influence on China’s actions if we welcome China into the world community instead of shutting it out.” Few Republicans disagreed.
Joe Biden, as a senator and vice president, was a strong advocate of closer relations with the PRC. “As a young member of a Foreign Relations Committee, I wrote and I said and I believed then what I believe now,” he told Chinese visitors in 2011, “that a rising China is a positive, positive development, not only for China but for America and the world writ large.”
Running for president almost a decade later, he told voters that China’s rulers are “not bad folks, folks. But guess what? They’re not competition for us.”
His National Security Strategy, published last October, asserts that the Cold War is over and “We do not seek conflict or a new Cold War.”
However, the NSS does allow that “a competition is underway between the major powers to shape what comes next. … Democracies and autocracies are engaged in a contest to show which system of governance can best deliver for their people and the world.”
A competition, a contest – and may the best system of governance win! Sounds like we’re discussing an Olympic sport rather than determining whether the future belongs to free nations or totalitarian dictatorships.
“It does us little good to repeat again and again that we aren’t seeking a new Cold War when the CCP has been stealthily waging one against us for years,” Matt Pottinger told the House select committee on the CCP a couple of months ago. A Mandarin-speaking former White House deputy national security advisor, Mr. Pottinger now serves as chairman of FDD’s China program.
Recognizing that a Cold War is underway is more than a semantic matter. It provides a framework for formulating policies based on lessons learned.
During a cold war, the U.S. should have two primary objectives. The first was articulated most succinctly by Ronald Reagan four years before he became president: “We win and they lose.”
That doesn’t necessarily imply the termination of CCP rule in China. It doesn’t even mean “containment” – the core of U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union.
It does suggest, as Mr. Pottinger has proposed, “a close cousin. Call it ‘constrainment’” – preventing the PRC from becoming the global hegemon, enforcing its rules internationally while the U.S. resigns itself to becoming a has-been power in a world where liberty dies.
If you think I exaggerate you’re not listening to Chinese President Xi Jinping who has declared that it is his “historical mission” to utilize “the tools of dictatorship” to realize a future in which “capitalism will inevitably perish and socialism will inevitably triumph.”
Marxism, he has said, “was created in order to change the destiny of human history. … a collectivized world is just there, over [the horizon]. Whoever rejects that world will be rejected by the world.”
The second vital objective in a cold war is to prevent it from becoming hot. That can most effectively be achieved through deterrence – convincing adversaries that it would be disastrous for them to challenge us militarily, or even to cross our “red lines.” If they believe they stand an even chance of defeating us, they are more likely to take their best shot.
We can debate strategies and tactics. But the first order of business is to come to terms with the ambitions and machinations of Mr. Xi, the CCP, and the PRC, keeping in mind that Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jong Un are what communists would call “fellow travelers.”
Michael Pillsbury, author of “The Hundred Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower,” and currently senior fellow for China strategy at the Heritage Foundation, recently co-authored a report titled, “Winning the New Cold War.” It argues that “protecting the U.S. homeland and prosperity and diminishing China’s ability to harm the U.S. will require a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach.”
That’s a heavy lift but the alternative could be to lose this “New Cold War,” or, if my conceptualization is preferred, for historians of the future to write that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a battle won in a war lost because Americans wrongly believed the war had ended.
**Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for The Washington Times. Follow him on Twitter @CliffordDMay. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Report: Unprecedented Rise in Hate Crimes against American Churches
Raymond Ibrahim/May 04/2023
Attacks on churches and Christian institutions on American soil are at an all-time high. The Mar. 27, 2023 killings in Nashville—where a woman claiming to be a man (aka “transgender”) stormed a private Christian school and murdered three children and three adults—is just the spectacular tip of a growing but concealed iceberg.
According to recent reports by the Family Research Council, “criminal acts against churches have been steadily on the rise for the past several years.” While relying on limited, public information—meaning that the actual number “of acts of hostility [against churches] is undoubtedly much higher”—the organization managed to verify “a total of 420 documented acts of hostility that occurred between January 2018 and September 2022” across the United States.
Some of these, while not lethal, were reminiscent of the Nashville shooting:
Three gun-related incidents occurred on church property in the first three months of 2023, including the shooting at The Covenant School [in Tennessee]. In one incident, two adults and two juveniles shot 50 rounds from 9mm pistols at a Mennonite church building in Versailles, Missouri; the property damage was charged as a hate crime. In another incident, a late-night shooting took place in the parking lot of the Praise Temple Baptist Church in Shreveport, Louisiana, sending four individuals to the hospital.
Although every year has seen a steady increase in attacks on churches (2020 being the exception, due to Covid-mandated lockdowns), the rate of growth has become exponential. As the report notes,
In the first quarter of 2023 [Jan, Feb, and Mar], 69 incidents have already occurred. If this rate continues, 2023 will have the highest number of incidents of the six years FRC has tracked, continuing the upward trend…. Compared to the same [three month] timeframe in previous years, January through March of 2023 represents a significant increase in acts of hostility. In those same months, 2018 saw 15 acts of hostility against churches; 2019 saw 12; 2020 saw none [due to lockdowns]; 2021 saw 14; and 2022 saw 24.
In other words, there were more church attacks in the first quarter of this year than there were in the first quarters of the preceding five years combined.
Of the 69 attacks on churches to occur between Jan-Mar of 2023, the overwhelming majority 53 (78%) consisted of vandalism and random property destruction. The rest included 10 incidents of arson, three gun-related, three bomb threats. Three of these attacks featured more than one of these categories.
While vandalism is the most innocuous of these crimes, it also best demonstrates their true motivation: hate. As the report notes,
Many of the acts of vandalism represented unexplained acts of destruction, such as an outdoor nativity scene being destroyed or rocks being thrown through a window. Other acts of defacement and desecration featured the beheading of Christian statues, the burning of crosses, and the sprawling of Satanic symbols on churches. Regarding the mindless damage caused by vandals on Valentine’s Day to a Presbyterian church in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, a church worker said, I just don’t understand. I keep wondering why. It shows a great deal of anger. And were they angry at us? Were they angry at churches? Were they angry at God? I just don’t understand why someone would do this.
While the identity of the assailants is often unknown (or intentionally concealed) a growing number appear to be, like the Nashville murderer, gender-confused people. For example, on Jan. 3, 2023, Cameron David Storer, a man claiming to be a woman, burned down a 117-year-old church building in response to “voices in her head.”One month later, on Mar. 3—the day after the Kentucky House of Representatives passed a bill that would protect children from sexual mutilation (aka “gender-transitioning”)—vandals spray-painted “TRANS PWR” on St. Joseph Catholic Church in Louisville.
After saying that “The problem of acts of hostility against churches in the United States is widespread and growing,” Arielle Del Turco, of the Family Research Council, said that they point
to a larger spiritual battle and a growing climate of hostility toward Christianity. The motivations for some of these acts of vandalism, arson, gun-related incidents, bomb threats, or other acts appear political while many more seem completely inexplicable. Yet, all of these incidents represent a deeply concerning trend and have the potential to be intimidating.
On the other hand, these trends are consistent with developments all around the world. Even in Europe, the world’s former bastion of Christianity, several churches are desecrated daily, including by being defecated and urinated on, though this phenomenon gets little to zero news coverage.
And while Muslim migrants have been the traditional culprits—European cities with large Muslim populations often see a concomitant rise in attacks on churches and Christian symbols—so-called “leftist” elements, not just gender-confused people, but flaming wokists of all stripes, are increasingly behind the church desecrations. In Canada, for instance, which was once described as “the church burning centre of the Western world” (though, clearly, its southern neighbor is giving it a run for its money) dozens of churches have been vandalized and torched, to official cheers, on the pretext of flimsy, historic “grievances.”
Here a seeming irony arises: the worldview of, on the one hand, “woke” peoples, and on the other, Muslims, are virtually antithetical: the former can be typified by extreme liberalism and an abnegation of reality, while the latter are the epitome of authoritarianism, patriarchy, and stark dogmatism.
So what explains their shared hatred for Christian churches? The answer seems simple enough: whereas amoral secularism is willing to accommodate and appease just about anything, churches cling to their own—that is, distinctly Christian—worldview, and this worldview rejects and contradicts much of what both the woke and the Muslim believe. As (the now “canceled”) Tucker Carlson said, while explaining why a “trans” woman murdered six people in Tennessee:
[The] victims were murdered because they were Christians. It’s that simple. Transgenderists hate Christians above all not because Christians are a physical threat—the third graders [killed] were not a physical threat—but because Christians refuse to join every other liar in our society and proclaim that transgenderists are gods with the power to change nature itself. Christians are not allowed to say that, they have their own God. And for that refusal, that unwillingness to bow down and worship a false idol, in this case of transgenderism, they were murdered.
Be that as it may, what cannot be denied is that hate for and violence against Christians and their places of worship—which once typified and was largely limited to the Muslim world—has reached and is rapidly spreading in America.

The Scourge of War and Sudan’s Fate

Jumah Boukleb/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Few in Sudan could be considered lucky so far. The luckiest are the foreign passport holders who managed to arrive safely at Wadi Seidna Airfield (40 km north of the capital Khartoum) and were shipped off to European capitals in massive military cargo planes. The images of huge planes carrying human cargo at Wadi Seidna Airfield are nothing but a painful re-enactment of the heart-wrenching scenes that followed the US withdrawal from Kabul when we saw thousands of Afghans desperately jostling for a spot on the plane to flee the country where they knew they could well die.
In second place, we have those who are also lucky to be European passport holders but were not lucky enough to make it to this deserted airfield in Wadi Seidna. They had to traverse around 400 kilometers to reach Port Sudan before Saudi warships shipped them off to Jeddah.
In third place are those who went a long way by car and on foot to cross the Sudanese border and reach a neighboring country. The list of the fortunate ends here. There is no fourth category of people in Sudan who can count themselves lucky. The rest of the Sudanese population (46 million people), the unlucky who do not possess foreign passports, were left to their own devices and fated to live with the fear of death. They are stuck in a country embroiled in a bone-breaking war between two generals that they have absolutely no interest in.
I do not think that anyone can imagine the horror of the Sudanese in the capital, Khartoum (6 million people). Warplanes are dropping their bombs over the city’s streets and homes, and the roar of tanks, cannons, and RPGs is deafening. It is not only the foundations of the houses and buildings in which they have taken refuge that are shaking; the entire country and the future of its people are wobbling.
Arab and foreign news broadcasts continuously update us on the developments in the battles for the capital, Khartoum, and other Sudanese cities. They read out the latest statements released by the belligerents or their threats to one another and constantly report on the updated casualty numbers. Images are broadcast of citizens fleeing death, running in the streets, and searching for safe havens where they can escape the shelling coming at them from all sides.
Those who managed to survive and make it to European capitals or Jeddah have told us horror stories. They told about hastily erected gates where they were extorted and threatened by guards before being allowed to cross over to the other side. Behind the scenes, Washington and Riyadh are working to compel the two generals to agree to a ceasefire and initiate negotiations. Capitals across the Western and Muslim worlds continue to demand that the two generals put an end to the bloodshed and destruction. Meanwhile, the flames of war are becoming increasingly vicious by the day, and more and more lives are being lost. Sudanese streets and roads have quickly turned into battlefields. Through our experiences with civil conflict over the past decade and beyond, we know that the path to dialogue was bombarded and wrecked on the first day of the war.
The avenues that remain are nothing but traps that lead to more death and destruction. Indeed, the eruption of violence affirms that Sudan has been forced into the dark tunnel of a deadly power struggle. There is no way out, and the Sudanese and their neighbors must now pay the multifaceted costs of war.
It is possible that if God forbid, international efforts to ensure peace fail, we could see Sudan divided like Libya. We could soon witness the arrival of mercenaries from different countries. This scenario is not a figment of my imagination, nor is it hyperbolic. It is the scenario we should expect. This is objective analysis based on the experiences of the Arab countries that have slipped into civil conflicts that have not subsided so far.
Despite its size, Libya was not large enough to accommodate the disputes between the factions fighting for power. The same is true for Sudan. Unfortunately, the vast territory of the third largest country in Africa is not large enough to accommodate the two generals fighting for power.
All we hope for is the success of international, Arab and African efforts to end the war. We hope the two generals can be convinced that no one can win the war destroying Sudan. We hope that they listen to reason. It is necessary if their differences are to be resolved. Remarkably, however, the British media has reported that both generals believe they can win the battle on the ground and defeat the other side...

Iran’s Next Step in Syria: Armed Militias Turn to Economic Militias

Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 04/2023
Latest in a series of developments in the Middle East, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi travelled to Syria on Wednesday at the head of a delegation.
Syria seems to now have an opportunity to return to the Arab League, rebuilding its identity as an Arab society. For years, this country has been a backyard for the Islamic Republic of Iran and an important and crucial part of the ‘strategic depth’ policy of this regime in the Middle East.
It is a highway that connects Iran to Lebanon and Hezbollah and lets it be close to the borders of Israel. It is the most important friend and ally of the Islamic Republic. Syria’s return to the Arab League and lifting of the sanctions will lead to billions of dollars flowing to the country for reconstruction, investment, development and infrastructure. Since the civil war began in Syria, Iran has been a key ally of President Bashar Assad, alongside Russia. Militias linked to Iran have played an important role in domestic clashes in the country. Given the recent developments, many questions are now asked about the continuation of these forces in Syria. Raisi entered Damascus as the whole region, hoping for reduction of tensions, looks on optimistically to the ceasefire in Yemen and resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. These developments began with the measures taken by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammad bin Salman, aimed at de-escalation in the region. Riyadh improved its ties with Qatar and Türkiye and went on to re-establish diplomatic ties with Iran.
It appears that the Islamic Republic of Iran has also been impacted by the de-escalation policy of the Crown Prince as it is also following its own economic interests in improving ties with regional countries. It has thus taken unprecedented measures. There is a possibility for resumption of ties with Bahrain. On April 20, Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, held a phone call with his Jordanian counterpart. None of this would have been possible without approval by the Saudis. Raisi’s trip to Syria can be a beginning for his regional trips to the Arab world, especially Oman, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian regime has spent billions of dollars on its militias in Syria, hoping to keep Assad in power. According to estimates by experts and international observers, Syria now needs 400 billion dollars in the next 10 to 15 years for reconstruction. This massive amount can come from investments by rich Arab countries and the Iranian regime will also not easily lose this economic opportunity.
Contracts have been signed in communications, transportation, railway expansion (Iran to Syria), reconstruction, oil and gas. They are future-looking, aiming to guarantee a share for the Islamic Republic. Since the economic dimension of the trip is important for the Iranian regime, Tehran must also work to get rid of the militias currently in Syria. This will help it be able to use the existing economic opportunities. The next step by the regime will thus be replacing the militias or turning them into a new concept: “economic militias”. In other words, the IRGC-linked militias will now become Iranian economic actors in Syria.
Afghanistan faced similar conditions following the fall of Taliban in 2003. IRGC’s economic section expanded its activities there aimed at “reconstruction” while signing construction contracts and exporting Iranian made commodities.
If the Iranian regime’s plan of improving ties with regional Arab countries goes ahead without problem, solving Yemen’s crisis should lead to another development: election of a president in Lebanon and putting an end to months of interim governance and the political impasse made by groups linked to Hezbollah and Tehran. Iran has also been invited to the next Syria meeting to be held in Moscow next month. Aimed at fixing ties between Syria and Türkiye, the meeting will feature foreign ministers of Ankara, Damascus and Tehran. Since China has recently played a role in regional affairs, it looks like it will also be invited here. There will also be representatives from the Syrian opposition.
The meeting can bring about final agreements to put an end to the war in Syria and be the final step to complete Syria’s return to the Arab League and lifting of sanctions. Tehran knows that Syria’s return to the Arab League will decrease its strategic influence there. This is why it is trying to prepare the grounds for changing the nature of IRGC’s presence in Syria. This being said, realization of the contracts signed between Iran and Syria depends on lifting of sanctions on the country and resolving the West’s conflict with Iran over the nuclear program.
Until this two important points haven’t been achieved, all the large and important contracts between Tehran and Damascus will only be small deals aimed at circumventing sanctions on the two countries.

Intel Signals Putin’s Dream of a Total Takeover Is Now Dashed

Shannon Vavra/The Daily Beast/May 4, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin has pared back his goals in the war in Ukraine to focus only on maintaining territory he has already seized, according to a new U.S. intelligence community assessment.
Moscow has also decided to focus on its goal of preventing Ukraine from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), told lawmakers Thursday.
“We assess that Putin probably has scaled back his immediate ambitions to consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally,” Haines said.
“He may be wiling to claim at least a temporary victory based on roughly the territory he has occupied,” Haines added.
It’s a stark analysis from the U.S. intelligence community that comes over one year into a war that has left Russian forces with hundreds of thousands of casualties and without significant territorial gains. Russian armed forces have failed to seize significant swaths of territory in the last several months in Ukraine, despite reported plans to seize more territory in Eastern Ukraine by March.
Putin Grooms Russians for Defeat in Leaked Crisis Manual
In April alone, Russian forces gained less territory than during any of the three previous months while they transition to defensive rather than offensive operations, according to Haines.
It’s not the first time that Putin has appeared to adjust his goals in Ukraine. When Russian troops tried and failed to seize Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, due to logistics and resupply issues last year, Russian forces shifted focus to eastern Ukraine. But the U.S. government’s assessment at the time was that Putin still had designs to take over the entirety of the country, as The Daily Beast reported.
And yet, a negotiated settlement doesn’t appear to be an inevitability, Haines indicated.
“Even as Putin may be scaling back his near term ambitions, the prospect for Russian concessions to advance negotiations this year will be low unless domestic political vulnerabilities alter his thinking,” she said.
U.S. officials have been noting in recent days that military battles alone might not bring about an end to the conflict, hinting at a settlement in some form, even as Ukrainian officials insist that they hope to push Russians out of all territory Moscow has seized since 2014.
Ukrainian armed forces are preparing to launch a counteroffensive sometime in the spring or summer to push Russia out of territory in eastern Ukraine, according to U.S. intelligence.
“I do think that the probability of either side achieving their political objectives through the sole use of military means…is going to be very difficult, very challenging,” Gen. Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Foreign Affairs recently.
Secretary of State Tony Blinken encouraged negotiations for peace between Russia and Ukraine this week.
“We’re open to any country engaging in responsible efforts to try to advance peace, and that begins with a couple of things. It begins, first of all, with the recognition… that what’s fundamentally at stake is the territorial integrity and sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, so any peace agreement has to have that as its foundation,” Blinken told Fox News in an interview.
Putin’s calculus may have changed in Ukraine in the near term. But he still likely harbors the belief that if he can wait for support for Ukraine to dry up in western countries, he may be able to resurge Russia’s offensive effort at some point in the future, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment.
“We continue to assess that Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favor and that prolonging the war may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine,” Haines said Thursday.
Putin Is Getting Pummeled With His Own Favorite War Trick
To that end, the Kremlin’s influence arm has been amplifying speculation about providing military aid to Ukraine, which has been key to helping Ukraine fend off total Russian takeover, U.S. intelligence memos obtained previously by The Daily Beast show.
The U.S. intelligence community now assesses that Putin might be interested in negotiating some kind of pause, if only to allow his military time to rebuild.
“Putin’s willingness to consider a negotiated pause may be based on his assessment that a pause would provide a respite for Russian forces as they could try to use that time to regain strength before resuming offensive operations at some point in the future, while buying time for what he hopes would be an erosion of western support for Ukraine,” Haines said.
The timing on any Russian operation to rebuild is not clear at the moment, U.S. intelligence officials told lawmakers Thursday. It might take as long as a decade to rebuild Russia’s military capability after massive losses in Ukraine, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, said.
“It's going to take them a while to build back to more…the estimates go from five to ten years,” he said.
Moscow’s deteriorated conventional military prowess will likely force it to rely on other levers of power, such as cyberattacks.
“Moscow has suffered military losses that will require years of rebuilding and leave it less capable of posing a conventional military threat to Europe and operating assertively in Eurasia and on the global stage,” Haines said. “As a result Russia will become even more reliant on asymmetric options such as nuclear, cyber, space capabilities, and on China.”

Close ties with the GCC should be a priority for Biden

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 04, 2023
At a time when America’s military presence in the Middle East appears to be shrinking and other forces may be looking to fill the vacuum, it is more essential than ever for the Biden administration to work in lockstep with the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
At this critical time, the Biden administration ought to reconfirm the US’ commitment to Middle Eastern security and aim to strengthen the ties between Washington and the members of the GCC — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman — on several fronts, such as the security, geopolitical and environmental landscapes.
President Joe Biden last year pledged that the US is committed to building “political, economic and security connections between the United States — between the US partners wherever possible, while respecting each country’s sovereignty and independent choices … Let me state clearly that the United States is going to remain an active, engaged partner in the Middle East.”
Biden added that the US’ objectives “are focused, realistic and achievable, so that we can target our resources, rebuild trust and deliver real results. And we will operate in the context of the Middle East as it is today: a region more united than it has been in years. The GCC is a prime example of that. Former rivals have reestablished diplomatic and economic ties. New memberships are being forged. And increasingly, the world is seeing the Middle East through the lens of opening and opportunity.”
The GCC — which was established with the purpose of strengthening relations between its members, safeguarding their sovereignty and addressing general concerns about their affairs and interests — has become a key international player that is capable of ushering in significant and positive changes, not only in the region but also beyond. Other objectives of the GCC include formulating regulations in various fields, including commerce, customs and communications, education and culture, social and health affairs, information and tourism, and legislative and administrative affairs.
There are many opportunities for increased cooperation between the US and the GCC
There are many opportunities for increased cooperation between the US and the GCC. One of the critical points of cooperation is security. This not only serves the region, but it also advances US national security interests. As Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst wrote in a letter to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan last October: “The United States must continue to convene partners, reinforce security dialogue, and develop defense concepts to counter these growing threats … Integrated air and missile defense in the region has been a consistent initiative by US Central Command, with bipartisan support.”
She added: “Our roadmap is clear: The United States must continue to engage regional partners to counter common threats … As the security partner of choice, the United States should reliably implement defense efforts and proceed with the US-GCC integrated air and missile defense working group without delay.”
In addition, leaders in the Gulf, as well as the Biden administration, will be keen to find common ground on which they can build positive partnerships in other areas, including climate change. President Biden has frequently made much of his environmental intentions. If we recall, in his initial flurry of executive orders on taking office, a return to the Paris Agreement on climate change was one of the most prominent decisions. The president clearly sees placing climate change high on the agenda as a vote winner, especially among younger, more liberal-minded voters.
It is important to point out that some Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are leading the way on this issue. As exemplified by the latest developments, climate change is an obvious choice for an interest that is shared by the US and the GCC states. Although some scholars, policy analysts and politicians might think a region that is the oil hub of the world is not an obvious place to look for innovation in green technologies, the region has in fact experienced a shift in its understanding and recognition of the fact that avoiding action on climate change is no longer possible.
For example, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have pledged to improve the proportion of their energy mixes that come from renewable sources, while the UAE has committed to a 23.5 percent reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. However, there also appears to be a growing understanding that technologies such as carbon capture and storage need to be developed to keep the oil industry viable in the long term.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced hugely ambitious plans to build NEOM, the world’s first city without roads — a clear signal of its intent to adjust course in a more environmentally friendly direction. And Sultan Al-Jaber, the chairman of Masdar, has pointed out that the UAE “aims to play a central role in the emerging green hydrogen economy.”
If the Biden administration is searching for another common cause between Washington and the GCC, green issues could provide the answer. Solar power, for example, is an area in which there is obvious common ground. The US is the world’s second-largest producer of solar energy, while the Middle East is an obvious candidate for the mass deployment of solar panels as a source of renewable energy. Furthermore, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested, or are planning to invest, billions of dollars in developing high-tech innovation hubs that could prove attractive to American companies that are interested in developing advanced clean technology.
In a nutshell, the Biden administration has opportunities for positive and expanded cooperation with the GCC on several fronts.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh