English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 25/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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15 آذار/2023
Bible Quotations For today
The angel Gabriel Delivers the Godly Message
To Virgin Mary
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke
01/26-38/:”In the sixth month the angel Gabriel was sent by God to a town in
Galilee called Nazareth, to a virgin engaged to a man whose name was Joseph, of
the house of David. The virgin’s name was Mary. And he came to her and said,
‘Greetings, favoured one! The Lord is with you.’ But she was much perplexed by
his words and pondered what sort of greeting this might be. The angel said to
her, ‘Do not be afraid, Mary, for you have found favour with God. And now, you
will conceive in your womb and bear a son, and you will name him Jesus. He will
be great, and will be called the Son of the Most High, and the Lord God will
give to him the throne of his ancestor David. He will reign over the house of
Jacob for ever, and of his kingdom there will be no end.’Mary said to the angel,
‘How can this be, since I am a virgin?’The angel said to her, ‘The Holy Spirit
will come upon you, and the power of the Most High will overshadow you;
therefore the child to be born will be holy; he will be called Son of God. And
now, your relative Elizabeth in her old age has also conceived a son; and this
is the sixth month for her who was said to be barren. For nothing will be
impossible with God.’Then Mary said, ‘Here am I, the servant of the Lord; let it
be with me according to your word.’ Then the angel departed from her.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on March 24-25/2023
Question: “What are the essentials of the gospel message?”
UN Special Coordinator says reforms 'crucial, inevitable'
Leaf to meet Mikati after meeting Berri and Jumblat
USAID’s CSP Celebrates the Completion of 76 Student Internships
US official meets Lebanon’s leaders as violent protests rage outside banks
Audit Bureau asks Hamieh for info on controversial airport project
Delay of daylight saving time stirs sectarian controversy
Week of protests: Angry depositors attack banks in latest demo
PM Mikati hosts Assistant Secretary of State Leaf, US Ambassador Shea
Contractors providing foodstuff to stop delivering food to prisons
Rahi meets Caretaker Justice Minister
Berri postpones joint parliamentary committees’ session
Berri meets US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Apostolic
Nuncio, broaches general situation with French Ambassador
UN’s Wronecka: Reforms agreed with IMF crucial, inevitable
European Observatory for the Integrity of Lebanon: Berri and Mikati preoccupied
with delaying daylight saving time instead of reforms
Jumblatt welcomes US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Hamieh meets TotalEnergies' La Martiniere: We will provide facilities for Total
in concerned departments
Banking under attack: A closer look at the possible motives
Reforms agreed with IMF became inevitable, Wronecka states
The unforeseen chaos of postponing daylight saving time: A ripple effect on
flights, phones, and beyond
How much substance is behind Hezbollah, Palestinian rhetoric on Israel?/Jonathan
Spyer/Jerusalem Post/March 25/2023
Paris failed. Washington must lead in breaking the mafia-militia’s chokehold on
Lebanon/Fadi Nicholas Nassar, Saleh El Machnouk
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 24-25/2023
U.S. President Joe Biden meets with PM Trudeau, family in first official
trip to Canada
14 dead in US strikes on Syria after drone kills American contractor
US launches airstrikes in Syria after drone kills US worker
Protesters greet Netanyahu as he meets UK leader in London
US launches air strike in Syria after Iranian drone attack kills American
contractor
Another attack on an American base in Syria Friday after US retaliatory
airstrikes on Iranian-backed groups
South Africa must arrest Vladimir Putin
Nordic countries plan joint air defence to counter Russian threat
EU could threaten to sanction washing machine trade helping Russia fix its army
Russia wants demilitarised buffer zones in Ukraine, says Putin ally
Spain says world must listen to China's voice to end war in Ukraine
Ukraine may not be able to reclaim Crimea by force, US says
Ukraine Mercilessly Mocks Steven Seagal Over Russia Military Report
Front-line Ukrainian soldiers say it seems like Russia has 'unlimited' artillery
shells to throw at them while they're worried about running out
Titles For
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on March 24-25/2023
Disasters in Turkey/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 24, 2023
Kazakhstan Avoids a Tug of War/Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al Awsat/March 24/2023
Iran and the Changing of Course!/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/March 24/2023
Russia’s Disinformation Machine Has a Middle East Advantage/Anna Borshchevskaya/The
Washington Institute/March 24/2023
Khamenei Attempts to Restore Optimism and Normality in Nowruz Speeches/Omer
Carmi/The Washington Institute/March 24/2023
Global support for Syria needed to rebuild human life/Tala Jarjour/Arab
News/March 24, 2023
Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on March 24-25/2023
Question: “What are the essentials of the gospel message?”
GotQuestions.org?/March 24, 2023
Answer: The word gospel means “good news,” which is the message of forgiveness
for sin through the atoning work of Jesus Christ. It is essentially God’s rescue
plan of redemption for those who will trust in His divine Son in order to be
reconciled to a just and holy God. The essential content of this saving message
is clearly laid out for us in the Bible. In the
apostle Paul’s first letter to the Corinthians, he lays out the content of the
gospel message, “Now, brothers and sisters, I want to remind you of the gospel I
preached to you, which you received and on which you have taken your stand. By
this gospel you are saved, if you hold firmly to the word I preached to you.
Otherwise, you have believed in vain. For what I received I passed on to you as
of first importance: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures,
that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day according to the
Scriptures” (1 Corinthians 15:1–4). In this passage,
we see three essential elements of the gospel message. First, the phrase “died
for our sins” is very important. As Romans 3:23 tells us, “For all have sinned
and fall short of the glory of God.” The reality of sin needs to be acknowledged
by all who approach the throne of God for salvation. A sinner must acknowledge
the hopelessness of his guilt before God in order for forgiveness to take place,
and he must understand that the “wages of sin is death” (Romans 6:23). Without
this foundational truth, no gospel presentation is complete.
Second, the person and work of Christ are indispensable components of the
gospel. Jesus is both God (Colossians 2:9) and man (John 1:14). Jesus lived the
sinless life that we could never live (1 Peter 2:22), and, because of that, He
is the only one who could die a substitutionary death for the sinner. Sin
against an infinite God requires an infinite sacrifice. Therefore, either man,
who is finite, must pay the penalty for an infinite length of time in hell, or
the infinite Christ must pay for it once. Jesus went to the cross to pay the
debt we owe to God for our sin, and those who are covered by His sacrifice will
inherit the kingdom of God as children of the king (John 1:12).
Third, the resurrection of Christ is an essential element of the gospel.
The resurrection is the proof of the power of God. Only He who created life can
resurrect it after death, only He can reverse the hideousness that is death
itself, and only He can remove the sting that is death and the victory that is
the grave’s (1 Corinthians 15:54–55). Further, unlike all other religions,
Christianity alone possesses a Founder who transcends death and who promises
that His followers will do the same. All other religions were founded by men and
prophets whose end was the grave.
Finally, Christ offers His salvation as a free gift (Romans 5:15; 6:23), that
can only be received by faith, apart from any works or merit on our part
(Ephesians 2:8–9). As the apostle Paul tells us, the gospel is “the power of God
that brings salvation to everyone who believes: first to the Jew, then to the
Gentile” (Romans 1:16). The same inspired author tells us, “If you declare with
your mouth, ‘Jesus is Lord,’ and believe in your heart that God raised him from
the dead, you will be saved” (Romans 10:9).
These, then, are the essential elements of the gospel: the sin of all men, the
death of Christ on the cross to pay for those sins, the resurrection of Christ
to provide life everlasting for those who follow Him, and the offer of the free
gift of salvation to all.
UN Special Coordinator says reforms 'crucial, inevitable'
Naharnet/March 24, 2023
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka said Friday that
three years after Lebanon announced its first ever sovereign default, Lebanese
are still waiting for their leaders to act to rescue the country. "People are
desperate to see their salaries severely diminished by currency depreciation and
inflation," Wronecka said in a tweet. She added that reforms agreed with the
International Monetary Fund are crucial and inevitable. On Thursday, the
International Monetary Fund gave a grim assessment of Lebanon’s prospects for
getting out of its deepening financial crisis, saying that without reforms, the
country is headed for hyperinflation. Ernesto Ramirez
Rigo, the head of the IMF mission visiting Lebanon, said at the end of their
nine-day visit that continued inaction by Lebanese leaders would leave the
nation in a “never-ending crisis” in which it could spiral into hyperinflation,
“affecting the quality of life of many Lebanese for years to come.”
Leaf to meet Mikati after meeting Berri and Jumblat
Naharnet/March 24, 2023
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf met
Friday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, following talks with Progressive
Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat. Leaf had arrived in Lebanon on Thursday
night, as part of a regional tour, after she visited Jordan, Egypt, Libya, and
Tunisia. She will on Friday meet with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati over
an Iftar dinner at his house, media reports said. Leaf will press Lebanese
officials on the urgent need to elect a president, form a government, and
implement critical economic reforms to set Lebanon on the path to stability and
prosperity, the U.S. department of state said.
USAID’s CSP Celebrates the Completion of 76 Student
Internships
Naharnet/March 24, 2023
The Community Support Program (CSP), funded by the United States Agency for
International Development (USAID), has recognized the efforts of a third cohort
of 76 university students and recent graduates from 11 universities who
completed internships in support of USAID-funded projects in Lebanon. U.S.
Embassy Deputy Chief of Mission Richard Michaels, USAID Lebanon Acting Mission
Director Nicholas Vivio, and representatives from municipalities, local
communities, and 11 USAID-assisted universities attended the ceremony. Launched
in 2020, the USAID-funded internship program under the CSP activity provides
graduates and undergraduates the opportunity to gain professional and practical
experience to start their careers and generate a temporary income to support
their families during the current economic crisis.
"The interns, who are enrolled in the American University of Beirut, American
University for Science and Technology, Antonine University, Beirut Arab
University, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Haigazian University, Islamic
University, Lebanese American University, Sagesse University, Notre Dame
University, and Saint Joseph University, provide support and technical expertise
to municipalities, civil society organizations, agricultural cooperatives, and
water establishments that are benefitting from USAID assistance in a range of
sectors including water and sanitation, agriculture and rural development,
education, and women’s empowerment," USAID said in a statement.
During the ceremony, students received certificates of appreciation for
contributing their time and effort to help local communities.
U.S. Embassy Deputy Chief of Mission Richard Michaels stated, “For many
years, the U.S. Government, through USAID, has worked to increase access to
education, training, and economic opportunities to nurture the potential of
Lebanon’s youth…I am heartened to see such a passionate group of interns who are
defying challenges, investing in their growth, and building a brighter future
for Lebanon.”Dr. Wael Zarakert, HECD Project Manager added "HECD in
collaboration with CSP, paved the way for the university students for a better
job opportunity and securing brighter future for Lebanese students."CSP Chief of
Party, Rhett Gurian concluded “The CSP internship program has contributed to
many recent graduates being able secure full-time and dignified jobs in Lebanon.
It’s for this reason that I often say that among all the things we do on CSP,
the internship program is one of my favorites. The transformational change and
impact on these students is real and tangible.”USAID said that this five-year
internship program, worth around $800K in USAID funding, aims to place up to 300
youth from challenged socio-economic backgrounds in internships to support local
communities through USAID’s projects in Lebanon. "Through this unique internship
program, which will continue until the summer of 2024, the U.S. Government is
demonstrating its continued commitment to support local development and higher
education in Lebanon," the statement concluded.
US official meets Lebanon’s leaders as violent
protests rage outside banks
Najia Houssari/Arab News/March 24, 2023
BEIRUT: The US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara
Leaf met several Lebanese officials on Friday, following depositors’ protests
against Lebanon’s central bank and other lenders in Beirut.
Accompanied by Dorothy Shea, US ambassador to Lebanon, Leaf met
parliament speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, caretaker
Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid
Jumblatt. Leaf is reported to have told the officials
that the US was pleased with the recent Saudi-Iranian rapprochement and that it
encouraged Saudi Arabia to move forward in this regard but the Kingdom had yet
to express its intention to restore consular work in Syria.
The diplomat said she did not want to give her opinion on who should be
the next Lebanese president as that was responsibility of the country’s
lawmakers, but the US welcomed any elected leader.
Leaf told Berri that the situation in Lebanon could not continue as the economic
situation was deteriorating and that the country needed to reach an agreement
with the International Monetary Fund as soon as possible.
Ahead of Leaf’s visit to Beirut as part of a Middle Eastern tour, the US
State Department urged Lebanese officials to elect a president, form a
government and implement decisive economic reforms as soon as possible in order
to put the country on the path to stability and prosperity.
Her arrival was preceded by three days of talks in Beirut between the
head of the Strategic Council for Iranian Foreign Relations Kamal Kharrazi,
Berri, Mikati and Hezbollah. Kharrazi said a new Lebanese president should be
elected without outside interference and that the matter was “up to Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah and its allies have named Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada
Movement, as their candidate, but the sovereign and reformist team has rejected
him because of his closeness to the Syrian regime.
Franjieh failed to secure a majority of 65 votes in the first round of voting,
and also missed the quorum of two-thirds of members of parliament, 86 out of
128, for the polling session in the second round.
During the talks, Leaf criticized a group of reformist MPs who recently visited
the US rather than remaining in Beirut to elect a president. One lawmaker said
she told them that although Washington would help to prevent Lebanon’s collapse
it “cannot elect a president in their stead.”
Leaf’s visit comes against the backdrop of more economic and monetary
deterioration in Lebanon. The IMF warned at the end of its meetings in Beirut
that the country “is in a very dangerous situation one year after it committed
to reforms it has failed to implement.”
Meanwhile, security forces strengthened their presence in the vicinity of the
central bank in Hamra on Friday, after a sit-in by members of the Depositors’
Cry group turned into a riot. Some protesters launched firecrackers at the
building, while others tried to storm the Societe General bank, and still more
attacked the frontages of the BBAC and Mawarid banks in Hamra Street.
A group of depositors from the United for Lebanon alliance said they tried to
enter the building in which Nadim Kassar, general manager of Fransabank, lives
in the Jnah area of Beirut. “Our protests have nothing
to do with what the IMF mission had to say,” Alaa Khorshid, head of Depositors’
Cry, said. “We had already planned to take action and
we will continue to do so until we recover our deposits that have been withheld
in banks since 2019.” Joanna Wronecka, UN special
coordinator for Lebanon, said on Friday: “Three years after Lebanon announced
the suspension of the payment of its sovereign debts, the Lebanese are still
waiting for their leaders to take action and save the country.
“People are angry to see their salaries lose value due to inflation and
the depreciation of the national currency. The reforms agreed upon with the IMF
have become vital and inevitable.”
The final report of the IMF mission, headed by Ernesto Rigo, said that Lebanon
was “at a dangerous crossroads.”“Without rapid reforms, the country will plunge
into a crisis that will never end.”
Audit Bureau asks Hamieh for info on controversial airport
project
Naharnet/March 24, 2023
Lebanon’s Audit Bureau on Friday sent a memo to caretaker Public Works and
Transport Minister Ali Hamieh, asking him for information about a project to
construct a new terminal at the Rafik Hariri International Airport, following an
uproar in the country over the issue. In the memo, the Bureau asks Hamieh
whether the public procurement law, the public-private partnership law and other
laws have been respected. It also asks whether a public tender had been
organized and whether structural, environmental and economic studies had been
conducted.
The head of the Public Procurement Authority, Jean Elliyeh, meanwhile announced
that “the airport tender file will be in the hands of the relevant inspection
authorities at the beginning of next week.” Elliyeh had recently announced that
the Authority was not aware of how the project was contracted without a public
tender. According to media reports, the project has
been contracted to an Irish company and a Saudi firm. The project will cost $122
million and will be completed in four years, officials said Monday. Lebanon’s
only international airport had a major facelift after the country’s 1975-90
civil war and has been working at full capacity for years. The airport has not
undergone an expansion since 1998. Hamieh said Terminal 2 will bring in private
sector investments worth $122 million and will handle 3.5 million passengers
annually when operations begin in 2027. “The project opens more horizons for air
aviation between Lebanon and the world,” caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati
said. He added that it will help in solving several problems, including crowding
at the current terminal. The project will create 500 direct jobs and 2,000
related jobs, Hamieh said, adding that Terminal 2 will be for chartered and
low-cost flights.
Hamieh said once Terminal 2 is ready it will be operated by leading European
company daa International, an airport company in Ireland. Ireland’s Minister of
State James Browne attended Monday’s ceremony in Beirut and was quoted in a
statement released by the Lebanese prime minister’s office as saying that the
contract signed will deepen business relations between the two countries. The
airport currently handles 8 million passengers a year, and the plans are to
reach 20 million in 2030, according to the website of national carrier Middle
East Airlines.
Delay of daylight saving time stirs sectarian controversy
Naharnet/March 24, 2023
A decision by caretaker PM Najib Mikati to postpone the start of Lebanon’s
daylight saving time has stirred controversy with sectarian undertones in the
country, especially after a leaked video of a conversation between Mikati and
Speaker Nabih Berri. In a statement issued Thursday,
the Premiership announced that daylight saving time will be “exceptionally”
postponed by a month this year to start at the midnight of April 20-21 instead
of March 25-26. The decision created confusion and pushed Lebanon’s national
carrier -- Middle East Airlines -- to bring forward the times of its flights by
one hour in the period between March 25-26 and April 20-21. The postponement
decision coincides with the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.
In a leaked video, Berri is seen telling Mikati that “Egypt and everyone
are keeping the clock unchanged.”“Instead of (fast-breaking time) being at 7:00
(pm), let’s keep it at 6:00 (pm) from now until the end of Ramadan,” Berri
added. Mikati answers by saying that he had personally
wanted to do so but that such a decision would affect airlines and create
problems. The postponement statement was however issued later in spite of the
premier's remarks. Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil later criticized
the move in a tweet. “The issue of daylight saving time is unacceptable and it
reflects a lot of implications … It is unacceptable to remain silent over it and
one should think of filing an appeal against it or defying it,” Bassil added.
MP George Atallah of the FPM also commented on the issue. “An
establishment that does not value time: it has lost the timing of approving
reforms, it has lost the timing of implementing an economic plan, it has wasted
partnership, the National Pact and the constitution, and it will waste our
unity, because it is sectarian and ignorant,” Atallah tweeted.
Week of protests: Angry depositors attack banks in latest
demo
Naharnet/March 24, 2023
Depositors and activists protested Friday in front of the Central Bank in
Beirut's Hamra street. They burned tires and tried to smash the windows of some
banks in the area. This week has been one of the craziest in Lebanon after the
black market dollar exchange rate hit the LBP 143,000 mark at the beginning of
the week prompting protests that did not stop even after the pound regained some
of its value after a Central Bank statement. On Tuesday protesters closed down
major roads in parts of the country. On Wednesday, Lebanese security forces
fired tear gas to disperse hundreds of protesters, mainly retired soldiers, who
tried to break through the fence leading to the government headquarters in
downtown Beirut. On Thursday, families of the Beirut port blast victims rallied
in front of the Justice Palace to protest the obstruction of the probe. Also on
Thursday a visiting delegation of the International Monetary Fund said that
Lebanon is "at a very dangerous moment", criticizing slow progress on reforms
needed to unlock billions in loans. The small nation is in the grips of the
worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history rooted in decades of
corruption and mismanagement by a political class that has ruled the country
since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. In late 2019, Lebanese banks imposed
informal capital controls, restricting cash withdrawals from accounts to avoid
folding amid currency shortages. People with dollar accounts could only to
withdraw small sums in Lebanese pounds, at an exchange rate far lower than that
of the black market. This effectively evaporated the
savings of many across the country. Angry depositors resorted to armed bank
heists, demanding their own money. Others have filed lawsuits from abroad to
retrieve their money in hard currency. Last month,
Lebanese commercial banks went on an open-ended strike and angry protesters took
to the streets, smashing windows and setting tires on fire outside two of the
country’s biggest banks in Badaro. The banks reopened
their doors in late February following caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s
request to do so for people to retrieve their salaries.
In march, the banks shuttered doors again to customers but reopened again on
Wednesday.
PM Mikati hosts Assistant Secretary of State
Leaf, US Ambassador Shea
LBCI/March 24, 2023
Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati received Assistant Secretary of State for
Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, on Friday afternoon at his home, in the
presence of United States Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. During the
meeting, they discussed the current situation in Lebanon, bilateral relations,
and the results of Leaf's tour to several regional countries. PM Mikati also
hosted the American delegation for Iftar.
Contractors providing foodstuff to stop delivering food to prisons
LBCI/March 24, 2023
Contractors providing food to prisons announced they would stop the delivery
process starting April 4, 2023. According to the statement, this move was taken
due to the severity of the economic crisis, the rise in the customs Dollar and
the depreciation of the Lebanese Lira. The statement added that the contractors
have previously submitted several requests to amend the prices of foodstuffs to
the groups of Roumieh prisons, Baabda's women's prison, Tripoli prisons, and
Zahle prison since January 2023, without obtaining an answer to date, knowing
that the approval to raise prices is not in line with the collapse of the
Lebanese currency. They said that the increase in customs Dollars from LBP
15,000 to LBP 45,000, and the inability to find a precise mechanism for
completing and paying the invoices per the exchange rate, also played a role in
their decision. "We were unable to secure the necessary liquidity to purchase
and/or import the necessary raw materials," added the contractors in a
statement.
Rahi meets Caretaker Justice Minister
NNA/March 24, 2023
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Rahi, is currently meeting in
Bkerke with Caretaker Minister of Justice, Henry Khoury.
Berri postpones joint parliamentary committees’ session
NNA/March 24, 2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday postponed the joint parliamentary
committees’ session which was scheduled for Monday, March 27, till Tuesday,
March 28, at 11:00 am.
Berri meets US Assistant Secretary of State for Near
Eastern Affairs, Apostolic Nuncio, broaches general situation with French
Ambassador
NNA/March 24, 2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday welcomed at the Second Presidency in Ain
El-Tineh, the Apostolic Nuncio to Lebano, Monsignor Paolo Borgia.
Discussions reportedly touched on the current general situation in
Lebanon. Speaker Berri also received the French
Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, with whom he discussed with the latest
political developments, general conditions, and the bilateral relations between
the two countries. This afternoon, Berri met with US Assistant Secretary of
State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, and her accompanying delegation,
in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. The meeting, which
lasted for about an hour, touched on the general situation in Lebanon and the
region.
UN’s Wronecka: Reforms agreed with IMF crucial, inevitable
NNA/March 24, 2023
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, on Friday said
via Twitter, “three years after Lebanon announced its 1st ever sovereign
default, the Lebanese are still waiting for their leaders to act to rescue the
country. People are desperate to see their salaries severely diminished by
currency depreciation and inflation. Reforms agreed with the IMF are crucial and
inevitable.”
European Observatory for the Integrity of Lebanon: Berri
and Mikati preoccupied with delaying daylight saving time instead of reforms
NNA/March 24, 2023
The European Observatory for the Integrity of Lebanon on Friday indicated that
"the World Bank report, issued on March 23, 2023, has sounds the alarm once
again regarding the lack of any progress in the reforms approved in April 2023."
“Prime Minister Najib Mikati and House Speaker Nabih Berri are currently
preoccupied with delaying the daylight saving time instead of reforming
financial and tax systems, the UD dollar exchange rate, and governance.”
Jumblatt welcomes US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
NNA/March 24, 2023
Progressive Socialist Party leader, Walid Jumblatt, on Friday welcomed at his
Clemenceau residence, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs,
Barbara Leaf, accompanied by US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea.
The meeting took place in the presence of "Democratic Gathering" bloc Head, MP
Taymour Jumblatt, and MP Raji Al-Saad. Discussions touched on the overall
situation and the current political developments.
Hamieh meets TotalEnergies' La Martiniere: We will provide facilities for Total
in concerned departments
NNA/March 24, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transportation, Ali Hamieh, on Friday
held a meeting with TotalEnergies Director General of Exploration and
Production, Romain De La Martiniere, to discuss the steps taken by the
departments affiliated to the ministry in the oil and gas exploration file in
Lebanon.
During the meeting, the minister pointed out that all the facilities required by
Total both at Beirut Port and at the airport are being developed and coordinated
within all the concerned departments. "Instructions have been given to them in
advance to secure everything TotalEnergies needs, especially with regard to
securing the appropriate and necessary facilities and procedures required by the
company, within the framework of the laws in force, with the objective of
allowing these two facilities to be up to date with the oil and gas exploration
file that the company will carry out in block n°9, so that they are fully
prepared to play their role,” Hamieh explained. In
turn, De La Martiniere expressed his appreciation for what he had learned from
Minister Hamieh "in terms of preparation to comply with all the facilities and
procedures requested by Total at the port and at the airport," stressing that
"constant communication with the ministry is an important element in this
preparatory stage that it is carrying out before the start of drilling
operations at the end of next September."
Banking under attack: A closer look at the possible motives
LBCI/March 24, 2023
Banking sources have observed that protesters began attacking banks again as
soon as they reopened their doors, smashing their storefronts and ATMs and
endangering the security of their staff and clients. These sources questioned
whether the intention was, for instance, to remove banks from the picture and
move Sayrafa operations outside of banks, where it would be impossible to track
the movement of dollars purchased from the Central Bank and where money
laundering and the Lebanese lira speculation would be permitted without any
minimum governance or transparency. Banking sources also believe that it is the
responsibility of the security forces to expose what is happening because it is
not innocent, and one cannot hide behind the demand for deposits to implement a
suspicious plan. It is also the duty of the state and all its institutions to
reveal to the public what is happening in this regard, as the damage is not
limited to banks and their employees, but threatens the fate of all Lebanese,
according to the same banking sources.
Reforms agreed with IMF became inevitable, Wronecka states
LBCI/March 24, 2023
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, has stated that
the reforms agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have become
inevitable. In a tweet, Wronecka said, "three years after Lebanon announced its
first ever sovereign default, Lebanese are still waiting for their leaders to
act to rescue the country." She stated that the Lebanese people became desperate
by seeing their salaries "severely diminished by currency depreciation and
inflation. Reforms agreed with the IMF are crucial and inevitable." In a press
release, the IMF stressed on Thursday that Lebanon has been witnessing an
unprecedented crisis causing a "severe economic dislocation" and a
"triple-digit" inflation, leaving banks unable to extend credits to the economy
and bank deposits. However, despite this challenging situation, the country has
yet to make progress in implementing reforms, stating that some economic trends
remain negative. 3 yrs after Lebanon announced its 1st ever sovereign default,
Lebanese are still waiting for their leaders to act to rescue the country.
People r desperate to see their salaries severely diminished by currency
depreciation &inflation. Reforms agreed w/ IMF are crucial &inevitable
The unforeseen chaos of postponing daylight saving time: A ripple effect on
flights, phones, and beyond
LBCI/March 24, 2023
The unforeseen chaos of postponing daylight saving time: A ripple effect on
flights, phones, and beyond. The decision to postpone daylight saving time was
made without considering its consequences. Flight schedules have been changed,
and travel companies have started sending text messages to travelers to alert
them that their flights have been moved up an hour earlier. For instance, if
your flight was initially scheduled to depart on Monday at 8:00 am, it will now
depart at 7:00 am. At the Rafic Hariri International Airport, around 45 airlines
received a memorandum from the airport management. Still, only some of them have
adjusted their schedules. Just like how flights were affected, mobile phones
were also affected despite the fact they usually adjust their tme automatically.
The two cellular providers, Alfa and Touch, are currently attempting to change
thousands of servers that are linked to phones. They tend to make it manual
because it's a challenging task. Each person must adjust their device's settings
(date and Time) and select to set the Time Zone manually or Time rather than
automatically. If these issues are locally modified, there is a bigger problem
for anyone working with a company outside of Lebanon and for platforms and
websites relied upon by media, banks, hospitals, and others connected to servers
outside the country. Their systems will experience chaos because they are not
synchronized. Imagine that Lebanon and the whole world had to make changes to
their systems just because two people decided to do so!
تحليل سياسي للكاتب والصحافي جوناثان سباير من الجيروزلم بوست
يلقي الأضواء على جهود ومساعي حزب الله لتوحيد الجبهات مع الفلسطينيين بمواجهة
إسرائيل
How much substance is behind Hezbollah, Palestinian rhetoric on Israel?
A look behind the Hezbollah effort to seek ‘unity of the arenas’ with
Palestinians vs. Israel
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/March 25/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116883/116883/
Ali Ramzi al-Aswad, a senior member of the Al-Quds Brigades, the armed wing of
the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement, was shot dead on Sunday, March 19, in
the Qudsaya area of Damascus. According to a report in the pro-Hizballah,
pro-Assad Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar, unidentified assailants fired more than
30 rounds from automatic weapons at al-Aswad, as the Islamic Jihad operative
walked from his home to his car. Al-Akhbar and other regional media outlets
immediately assumed that Israel was responsible for the killing.
An editorial in the same al-Akhbar, published on March 20th, sought to locate
the killing of al-Aswad within the broader context of the current escalation in
tensions between Israel and Hizballah.
This escalation derives from the significant uptick this year of violence in the
northern West Bank, and from growing indications that Lebanese Hizballah, with
its Iranian patrons behind it, is seeking to assist, capitalize on and extend
the scope of this violence. In this regard, the recent incident in Megiddo, in
which an operative entered Israel from Lebanon equipped with weaponry including
a sophisticated claymore mine, represents until now the clearest practical
evidence of this attempt at linkage. So how seriously should these efforts be
taken?
The al-Akhbar editorial was written by the paper’s chief editor, Ibrahim Amin.
Amin is a close associate of the Hizballah leadership and of the movement’s
general secretary, Hassan Nasrallah. As such, his writings often reflect the
thinking of senior currents of the pro-Iran axis in Lebanon and elsewhere, and
are hence worthy of particular attention.
Amin locates current events within the framework of the approaching month of
Ramadan. He asserts that ‘events, consultations and contacts seen and unseen’
suggest that ‘the coming month of Ramadan will be an occasion to announce a new,
more effective level of coordination between the resistance forces in the entire
region.’ Amin goes on to note the position ‘recently launched by the leaders of
the resistance regarding the unity of the arenas…the aim of which is to raise
resistance activity inside Palestine to a level that opens the door to a
comprehensive uprising.’
The ‘resistance,’ according to Ibrahim Amin, ‘realizes that direct, qualitative
action on the entire area of historical Palestine represents the starting point
for the complete liberation project.’
From this point of view, Amin contends that the killing of al-Aswad reflected an
Israeli desire to respond to the Megiddo ‘operation’ and the evidence it
indicated of the aforementioned ‘unity of the arenas.’
Israel’s aim, Amin suggests, was to strengthen deterrence, while avoiding
‘uncontrolled escalation’ and a deterioration to a general conflict. The choice
of the target – a Palestinian from an Iran and Hizballah backed organization,
and the location – Syria rather than Lebanon – was calibrated in order to
achieve this precise effect, the al-Akhbar editor proposes.
The approach to Ramadan this year, Amin continues, is distinguished by the
presence of what he refers to as an ‘insane government’ in Israel, and a
resulting ‘internal crisis in the occupying entity in an unprecedented manner,
amid the escalation of regional dangers to Israel, especially from Iran and the
northern front.’
‘Everyone’, Amin concludes, ‘is waiting for different days in the coming
Ramadan, and first and foremost the enemy, who does not desist even for an hour
from the crimes of killing and assassination.’
Ibrahim al-Amin’s editorial, it is worth noting, is primarily a response to a
somewhat dispiriting event for his readers and patrons – namely the successful
penetration as he perceives it of his side’s territory by its enemies, and the
targeted assassination of a senior operative. Nevertheless, the opinions
expressed in it reflect a widespread stance reflected in other statements by
leaders and mouthpieces of the pro-Iran regional alliance. The specific and
common elements are the conviction that their cause is served by the internal
disunity and strife in Israel, and the desire to link the evident renewed desire
for confrontation in the West Bank with the capabilities and capacities of Iran
and its clients.
Recent statements by Nasrallah himself, and by senior Hamas military officials
including Marwan Issa and Saleh al Arouri have followed along similar lines.
A series of meetings of senior officials of Hizballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad
over the past week, meanwhile, further suggest at least a desire to project an
image of coordination.
According to a statement issued by Hizballah’s press office on Sunday, Nasrallah
met recently with a delegation led by Saleh al Arouri of Hamas. The discussion,
according to the statement, centered on “the latest developments in occupied
Palestine, especially the resistance in the West Bank and Jerusalem.”
Arouri is the most senior military operative of Hamas currently active on the
external front. Formerly based in Turkey, he has claimed responsibility for
organizing the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli Jewish teenagers which led
to Operation Protective Edge in 2014.
Nasrallah also met last Saturday with Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziad
al-Nakhala, and an accompanying delegation. Nasrallah and al-Nakhala agreed to
‘continue consultation and coordination with a view to enhancing the resistance
against Israel,” according to a statement subsequently released by Islamic
Jihad.
How should all this be interpreted? Firstly, it should be noted that expressions
of bellicose self-confidence on the part of this camp, sometimes with only
glancing resemblances to reality, are not a new development.
A narrative according to which the violence of May 2021 represented the birth of
a new paradigm in the struggle between Israelis and Palestinians is prevalent
here. What Israelis refer to as Operation ‘Guardian of the Walls’ is termed by
Hizballah and its allies the ‘Saif al-Quds’ (Sword of Jerusalem) battle.
Robert Inlakesh, writing at the pro-Hizballah al-Mayadeen media website in May
2022, characterized the supposed new developments of this period in the
following terms: ‘the tactics used by the armed groups, such as; slowly
revealing new weapons technology, striking everywhere inside the 1948
territories, putting Israeli airports on temporary lockdown and controlling the
course of the battle, all showed the entire region the weaknesses of “Tel Aviv”.
The latest statements by Nasrallah and Issa, and al-Amin’s editorial, should be
seen as coming from within this perception. A cooler glance at the situation,
however, would require an acknowledgement that even in 2021, the hoped for mass
mobilization of Palestinians in support of a new intifada did not take place.
Nor did it happen in the Ramadan of 2022, despite the uptick in violence. Nor
has it happened so far this year, despite the very significant increase in
violence in the West Bank since the start of 2023.
The key question, however, is not the accuracy of the perceptions revealed in
al-Amin’s editorial and Inlakesh’s somewhat overheated prose. Rather, the key
matter is the extent to which those who publicly profess these views, especially
among the decisionmakers in that camp, are themselves genuinely convinced by
them. Rhetoric, after all, can play a compensatory and comforting role,. It can
divert attention from a more cautious and pragmatic praxis. In the Arab world,
famously, it very often fulfils this function. Is that the case here? Or is
something more substantive being revealed?
This takes us back to the incident in Megiddo. All the relevant information is
not publicly available. But here is what is known: the forces that control the
Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border, ie Hizballah and its Iranian
masters, chose to initiate or permit the launching of an operation involving the
use of sophisticated military technology which if successfully employed would
have resulted in an act of terror involving mass casualties. Such an action
would undoubtedly have brought forth a major Israeli response. That they carried
out or sanctioned such an operation would seem to indicate that the assessment
outlined in Ibrahim al-Amin’s editorial following the assassination of Ali Ramzi
al-Aswad does indeed reflect the view adhered to by key individuals in the
highest echelons of Hizballah and among the Iranian forces which stand behind
it. This ought to be a matter of note for all those concerned with Israel’s
security, and with the maintenance of its deterrence.
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-735246
Paris failed. Washington must lead in breaking
the mafia-militia’s chokehold on Lebanon
Fadi Nicholas Nassar, Saleh El Machnouk/MEI@75/March
24, 2023
In response to Lebanon's seemingly imminent transition into a failed state, this
article introduces a new framework to explain the country's protracted crisis.
In turn, we unpack what the past four years of international responses to
Lebanon got wrong and make the case for a new assertive approach for Washington
to take — one that empowers local stakeholders working to recapture the state
and reform the country’s political economy.
Lebanon is entering a new phase of its nearly four-year-long crisis — the
country is not only on the brink of collapse, but risks backsliding into
autocracy and illiberalism. In recent months, Lebanon has been hit by a
debilitating new wave of hyperinflation, the implosion of its judiciary over the
local investigation into the Port of Beirut Blast, and a European investigation
into the Central Bank. For the first time in its history, Lebanon is navigating
these emergencies without a president or government. This is not business as
usual, even for the crisis-ridden country.
But Lebanon’s crisis has not happened overnight or behind closed doors.
Diplomats from the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt met in
Paris in early February in what was planned to be a first step to help prevent
Lebanon’s imminent collapse. As Lebanon veers towards failed-state status, the
absence of any public communique or explicit agreements following the Paris
summit reveals the depth of the fissures dividing the quintet and paralyzing
international responses to Lebanon’s crisis over the past four years, as well as
a deeper failure to get the problem right.
Designed to fail or coerced into collapse?
Hovering between seemingly opposite poles, the quintet has minimized engagement
in Lebanon, opting instead for stopgap measures to mitigate the visible collapse
of the state. On one side of the spectrum, France has largely characterized
Lebanon’s crisis as a consequence of a deeply-flawed power-sharing system that
allowed sectarian elites to divvy up the spoils of the state to the point of
bankruptcy. Lebanon’s failure, therefore, is rooted in corruption and
mismanagement, its leaders, and the country’s inability to, as French President
Emmanuel Macron recently put it, “get rid” of them.
On the other side of the spectrum is the understanding that Lebanon was coerced
into collapse by Hezbollah and its regional backer, Iran. Through political
assassinations, forced paralysis, and a military takeover in 2008, Hezbollah
filled the power void in Lebanon left by the Assad regime’s withdrawal in 2005.
Central to that theory is that Hezbollah’s costly regional military
interventions — from Syria to Yemen — and coercion of its opponents, paralyzed
the government and cut the country off from its traditional Gulf economic
lifeline. From 2003 to 2015, three Gulf countries made up more than
three-quarters of new foreign direct investment projects in the country. Saudi
Arabia’s withdrawal from Lebanon appears informed by this position — that
Lebanon is lost to Hezbollah and Iran. The minimal attention directed to Lebanon
in the ostensible detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran points to Riyadh’s
skepticism on the Lebanon front.
Yet, neither of these perspectives accurately explains Lebanon’s failure,
obfuscating the role international actors can play to support efforts within the
country to recapture the state and reform its political economy. An alternative
explanation to the misleading duality of an endemically corrupt political elite
versus Hezbollah’s state-within-a-state status is what we call the mafia-militia
nexus.
The mafia-militia nexus
After years of confrontation between Hezbollah and the anti-Syrian March 14
forces, the former had managed — using both sticks and carrots — to either
subdue or co-opt various political opponents into so-called “national unity
governments.” This process, which hesitantly began in 2008, culminated in 2016
with the election of a Hezbollah ally, Michel Aoun, as president. By then,
Lebanon had fully delved into a Faustian, transactional arrangement between the
militia (Hezbollah) and the mafia (the co-opted cartel of sectarian political
elites), which functions according to a relatively simple modus operandi: the
mafia provides the militia with political legitimacy, condoning or even actively
endorsing its military adventurism in various corners of the Middle East (and
beyond) as proxies of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), despite
the immense financial costs arising from enmity towards the Gulf states on which
Lebanon’s economy largely depends. In return, the militia uses violence (or the
threat of it) to ensure that various mafia dons continue to further their
interests and tighten their grip on power through institutionalized corruption,
as happened in the wake of the October 2019 uprising.
During those years, Lebanon’s Central Bank governor, Riad Salameh, acting as the
mafia’s financial architect, siphoned depositors’ money from commercial banks to
fund the elite’s expanding clientelist network, resulting in the loss of life
savings for hundreds of thousands of Lebanese. The recent case of the U.S.’s
sanctioning of Hezbollah-affiliated money exchanger Hassan Moukalled, accused of
supporting Hezbollah’s finances by acting as an intermediary between the Central
Bank and the black market, demonstrates how Salameh’s control of the Central
Bank is a key component of Hezbollah’s evolving ability to capture state
resources and circumvent international sanctions.
Neither the mafia nor the militia, even if acting in parallel, could have led to
Lebanon’s demise. It was the quid-pro-quo that sealed the country’s downfall.
And it is the failure to effectively counter this nexus that explains Lebanon’s
protracted crisis.
Lebanon still has a fighting chance
The misfiring of the Paris summit marks a critical opportunity for the Biden
administration to depart from Washington’s long normalization of this
quid-pro-quo at a moment when it is increasingly contested within Lebanon. It
also presents a crucial opening for Washington to reverse its policy of letting
the French, whose strategy has contributed to cementing the mafia-militia’s grip
on power, take the lead on the Lebanese crisis.
Indeed, despite President Macron’s assertion that the only way forward is for
“Lebanon to change its leadership,” the Lebanese have exhausted almost every
democratic practice to do so.
For years they protested, across sectarian and geographic divides. When those
protests failed to transform the status quo, they mobilized to form alternative
political parties and compete in elections, resulting in a loss of Hezbollah’s
majority in parliament and a historic space for alternative candidates. Efforts
to realize the 2019 popular uprising’s calls for a government of independent
technocrats were soon met with (renewed) threats from Hezbollah, which proceeded
to form its own government regardless.
Yet, Lebanon is still not lost. Local actors within and outside government
continue to fight for a stable, functional democracy. But they are fighting
alone using democratic practices against a fundamentally illiberal opponent
whose survival is maintained by criminality, violence, and impunity. The failure
of the Paris summit to recognize these actors or any technocratic alternatives
to the mafia-militia, despite both the repeated failure of the mafia-militia and
the key milestones achieved by alternative actors, is bolstering those
responsible for Lebanon’s collapse at the expense of credible alternatives and
is central to understanding the survival of a defunct status quo.
Washington needs a consistent and decisive Lebanon policy
The Biden administration’s recent nomination of a new ambassador to Lebanon
offers an opportunity to roll out a new approach focused on setting the
narrative on Lebanon and aligning the positions of France and Saudi Arabia,
while moving away from the Doha Agreement that heralded the mafia-militia
arrangement. Nearly four years into Lebanon’s crisis any arrangement that
consists of quasi-consensus between Hezbollah and the mafia, as with the
election of a “March 8” president and a “March 14” (leaning) prime minister,
will not only fail to stabilize the crisis, but erode the already fragile
democratic institutions keeping the country together.
The U.S. must press France to prioritize, as it did with the Assad regime’s
dominance in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s coercion and the necessity of centering it in
any response to save Lebanon. Benefactors of the mafia-militia, like caretaker
Prime Minister Najib Mikati, repeatedly praised by President Macron as a
credible reformer, will always prioritize the interests of Hezbollah over
Washington, and are neither capable nor willing to reform a status quo that
positions them as key winners. In reducing Lebanon’s failure to systemic
corruption, Macron’s vision for Lebanon further normalizes Hezbollah’s security
dominion and the criminal economic model that sustains it. Four years into
Lebanon’s crisis, conceding to the rule of the militia with a myopic focus on
corruption won’t save the economy either.
Washington should also encourage Riyadh to reconsider disengagement from
Lebanon. Withdrawal is counterproductive, as it fuels the perceived
inescapability of Iran’s mafia-militia model and disincentivizes efforts to
recapture the state not just in Lebanon but in Iraq as well. If Hezbollah’s
dominance is the blueprint for Iran’s regional expansion, its undoing is central
to undermining its regional hegemony.
Setting the narrative is the first step to shoring up the international support
needed to break the mafia-militia’s chokehold on Lebanon. Judge Tarek Bitar’s
investigation into the Port of Beirut Blast and its suppression through
obstruction and intimidation exemplifies both the consequences of ignoring the
mafia-militia’s larger autocratic project and the dangers of sidelining local
actors putting their lives on the line for accountability and change.
France’s foreign minister, Catherine Colonna, describes the Lebanese as “victims
of a bankrupt system,” whose leaders need to elect a “consensus president.”
Consensus between mafia and militia is the cause of Lebanon’s failure, not the
solution.
It is time for Washington to take the reins from Paris and maximize the
resistance to Iran’s regional strategy of propping up militias and
systematically undermining state institutions. Lebanon’s survival is not simply
dependent on an anti-corruption president and government, it needs a new
leadership that is equally committed to preserving the Lebanese state’s monopoly
on violence and sovereignty — one that will not face the mafia-militia and Iran
on its own.
Despite a seemingly intractable position, the mafia-militia’s hold on power is
increasingly fragile. Standing on faltering ground, it relies on the false
promise of the inevitability of its rule and the marginalization of
alternatives. Space won in Lebanon and dedicated to challenging the
mafia-militia — on the streets, in the judiciary, in parliament — needs to be
expanded, not abandoned. The recent thawing of relations between Iran and Saudi
Arabia, though not focused on Lebanon, may offer room to dissipate obstruction
towards such an alternative to new iterations of the mafia-militia arrangement.
A new Lebanese government and president that can implement the reforms capable
of fighting corruption and recapturing the state may be a pill easier to swallow
than jeopardizing a tenuous regional détente.
That change cannot materialize if Washington fails to take decisive action; a
passive approach will only signal a de facto normalization of the mafia-militia.
The United States and its partners must be clear that they will not deal with
any president that does not embody the principle of a sovereign Lebanon. The
predominant belief among Hezbollah's allies is that the U.S. will come to terms
with Hezbollah’s candidate for president, Suleiman Frangieh, once elected.
Reviving a targeted sanctions policy both for subservience to Hezbollah and for
corruption-related charges will go a long way in containing spoilers and
imposing costs on actors sustaining the very status quo that is failing Lebanon
and will fail it further. Targeted sanctions have been particularly effective in
containing spoilers, as evidenced by the inability of Gebran Bassil, leader of
the Free Patriotic Movement and a key Hezbollah ally, to run for the presidency.
In turn, the Biden administration must commit to effectively delegitimizing
Hezbollah’s allies, making sure they can't have their cake and eat it too. The
recent visit of Hezbollah ally Elias Bou Saab to Washington and his meetings
with U.S. officials sends a counter-productive message to U.S. allies and foes
alike. Central to undermining the mafia-militia is ensuring that revenue from
natural and energy resources, particularly those unlocked by the U.S.-sponsored
maritime deal, are directed towards the state and Lebanon’s people, and not used
to prop up the mafia-militia.
Coalescing international support for a president and government that can break
the tenuous grip of the mafia-militia and widen the space for local actors to
recapture the state and reform their political economy is the only way forward.
It is either the Lebanese or the mafia-militia that will survive. The question
is to whom will the quintet throw a lifeline? This is a decision the Biden
administration can no longer afford to overlook or outsource.
Fadi Nicholas Nassar is an assistant professor in political science and
international affairs at the Lebanese American University and the US-Lebanon
Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC.
Saleh El Machnouk is a lecturer in political science at Saint-Joseph University
in Beirut.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit,
educational organization. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars’
opinions are their own. MEI welcomes financial donations, but retains sole
editorial control over its work and its publications reflect only the authors’
views.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 24-25/2023
U.S. President Joe Biden meets with PM Trudeau, family in
first official trip to Canada
Yahoo Canada/Fri, March 24, 2023
U.S. President Joe Biden is in Ottawa for an official visit — a trip that will
include an address to Parliament, and a meeting with Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau.
The two-day trip, the first non-summit overnight visit by a U.S. president in
nearly two decades, is a chance for Biden and Trudeau to continue their efforts
to renew the bilateral relationship, which was marked by some tension in recent
years.
A recent poll, conducted by Maru Public Opinion and GZERO Media, found that
Canadians and the U.S. don't feel as positively about their relationship as they
used to before. 30 per cent of Canadians feel that the relationship with our
neighbours to the south is getting worse. That’s compared to 23 per cent who
felt things were improving.
14 dead in US strikes on Syria after drone
kills American contractor
Arab News/March 24, 2023
JEDDAH: The US vowed on Friday to protect its forces in Syria after killing 14
pro-Iranian fighters in airstrikes targeting Deir Ezzor in the east of the
country. The latest bloodshed began when an
Iranian-built suicide drone struck a maintenance facility at an anti-Daesh
coalition base near Hasakeh. A US contractor was killed, and another contractor
and five US service personnel were wounded in Thursday’s attack.
President Joe Biden ordered precision air strikes in eastern Syria
against facilities used by groups affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps. “The air strikes were conducted in response to Thursday’sattack as
well as a series of recent attacks against coalition forces in Syria by groups
affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards,” Austin said. The Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor with a wide network of sources on the
ground, said 14 people had been killed by US strikes, including nine Syrians.
“US strikes targeted a weapons depot inside Deir Ezzor city, killing six
pro-Iran fighters, two other fighters were killed by strikes targeting the
desert of Al-Mayadeen, and six others near Albu Kamal,” said the Observatory’s
head Rami Abdel Rahman. The violence continued on Friday when a US base at
Al-Omar oil field in Syria was targeted in a missile attack. The attack was
ineffective and there were no US casualties, White House national security
spokesman John Kirby said. It is not uncommon for Iranian-backed groups to lob
missiles at US bases in Syria after they are hit with airstrikes. “We’re going
to work to protect our people and our facilities as best we can. It’s a
dangerous environment,” Kirby said. US Army General Erik Kurilla, who oversees
American troops in the Middle East, said: “We will always take all necessary
measures to defend our people and will always respond at a time and place of our
choosing.”Iran-backed militias have a heavy presence across Syria, especially
around the border with Iraq and south and west of the Euphrates in Deir Ezzor
province. The latest violence could further aggravate already strained relations
between Washington and Tehran amid stalled efforts to revive a nuclear deal and
Iran’s military support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. US forces first
deployed into Syria during the Obama administration’s campaign against Daesh, in
partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. About 900 US troops
are in Syria, most of them in the east. They have come under attack by
Iranian-backed groups about 80 times since the beginning of 2021.
US launches airstrikes in Syria after drone
kills US worker
Associated Press/March 23, 2023
A strike Thursday by a suspected Iranian-made drone killed a U.S. contractor and
wounded five American troops and another contractor in northeast Syria, the
Pentagon said. American forces said they retaliated soon after with "precision
airstrikes" in Syria targeting facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran's
Revolutionary Guard, with activist groups saying the U.S. bombing killed at
least four people. The attack and the U.S. response threaten to upend recent
efforts to deescalate tensions across the wider Middle East, whose rival powers
have made steps toward détente in recent days after years of turmoil.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement that the American
intelligence community had determined the drone was of Iranian origin, but
offered no other immediate evidence to support the claim.
"The airstrikes were conducted in response to today's attack as well as a
series of recent attacks against coalition forces in Syria" by groups affiliated
with the Revolutionary Guard, Austin said. Iran relies on a network of proxy
forces through the Mideast to counter the U.S. and Israel, its arch regional
enemy. The Pentagon said two of the wounded service
members were treated on-site, while three others and the injured contractor were
transported to medical facilities in Iraq. Overnight,
videos on social media purported to show explosions in Syria's Deir el-Zour, a
strategic province that borders Iraq and contains oil fields. Iran-backed
militia groups and Syrian forces control the area, which also has seen suspected
airstrikes by Israel in recent months allegedly targeting Iranian supply routes.
Iran and Syria did not immediately acknowledge the strikes, nor did their
officials at the United Nations in New York respond to requests for comment from
The Associated Press. The activist group Deir Ezzor 24 put the death toll from
the American strikes at four people. Deir Ezzor 24, which covers news in Deir
el-Zour province, said the strikes hit the city of Deir el-Zour as well as
militiamen posts near Mayadeen and Boukamal. It said the strikes also wounded
people, including Iraqis.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, reported
that the American strikes killed six Iranian-backed fighters at an arms depot in
the Harabesh neighborhood in the city of Deir el-Zour. The Observatory, which
relies on a network of local contacts in Syria, said U.S. bombing at a post near
the town of Mayadeen killed two fighters. A separate
American strike hit a military post near the town of Boukamal along the border
with Iraq, killing another three fighters, the Observatory said.
The AP could not immediately independently confirm the activist reports.
Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been suspected of carrying out attacks with
bomb-carrying drones across the wider Middle East.
In recent months, Russia has begun using Iranian drones in its attacks on sites
across Ukraine as part of its war on Kyiv. Iran has issued a series of
conflicting denials about its drones being used in the war, though Western
nations and experts have tied components in the drones back to Tehran.
The exchange of strikes came as Saudi Arabia and Iran have been working toward
reopening embassies in each other's countries. The kingdom also acknowledged
efforts to reopen a Saudi embassy in Syria, whose embattled President Bashar
Assad has been backed by Iran in his country's long war.
U.S. Army Gen. Michael "Erik" Kurilla, the head of the American military's
Central Command, warned that American forces could carry out additional strikes
if needed. "We are postured for scalable options in the face of any additional
Iranian attacks," Kurilla said in a statement.
Addressing the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Kurilla warned
lawmakers that the "Iran of today is exponentially more militarily capable than
it was even five years ago." He pointed to Iran's arsenal of ballistic missiles
and bomb-carrying drones. Kurilla also claimed that Iran had launched some 78
attacks on U.S. positions in Syria since January 2021. "What Iran does to hide
its hand is they use Iranian proxies," Kurilla said.
Diplomacy to deescalate the crisis appeared to begin immediately around the
strikes. Qatar's state-run news agency reported a call between its foreign
minister and Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser. Doha has been an
interlocutor between Iran and the U.S. recently amid tensions over Tehran's
nuclear program. Qatar's foreign minister also spoke
around the same time with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.
Austin said he authorized the retaliatory strikes at the direction of President
Joe Biden. "As President Biden has made clear, we will take all necessary
measures to defend our people and will always respond at a time and place of our
choosing," Austin said. "No group will strike our troops with impunity." The
U.S. under Biden has struck Syria previously over tensions with Iran. In
February and June of 2021, as well as August 2022, Biden launched attacks there.
Dareen Khalifa, a senior Syria analyst with the Brussels-based International
Crisis Group, said that while Thursday's exchange of strikes comes at a
sensitive political moment due to the "overall deterioration of U.S.-Iran
relations and the stalling of the nuclear talks," she does not expect a
significant escalation. "These tit-for-tat strikes have been ongoing for a long
time," Khalifa said, although she noted that they usually do not result in
casualties. While "the risk of an escalatory cycle is there," she said, "I think
the Biden administration won't be eager to escalate in Syria now and will
instead have a relatively measured response." U.S.
forces entered Syria in 2015, backing allied forces in their fight against the
Islamic State group. The U.S. still maintains the base near Hasakah in northeast
Syria where Thursday's drone strike happened. There are roughly 900 U.S. troops,
and even more contractors, in Syria, including in the north and farther south
and east. Since the U.S. drone strike that killed
Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Iran has sought "to make life
difficult for U.S. forces stationed east of the Euphrates," said Hamidreza
Azizi, an expert with the German Institute for International and Security
Affairs.
"Iran increased its support for local proxies in Deir el-Zour while trying to
ally with the tribal forces in the area," Azizi wrote in a recent analysis. "Due
to the geographical proximity, Iraqi groups also intensified their activities in
the border strip with Syria and in the Deir el-Zour province." The strikes come
during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Syria's war began with the 2011 Arab
Spring protests that roiled the wider Middle East and toppled governments in
Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen. It later morphed into a regional proxy conflict
that has seen Russia and Iran back Assad. The United Nations estimates over
300,000 civilians have been killed in the war. Those figures do not include
soldiers and insurgents killed in the conflict; their numbers are believed to be
in the tens of thousands.
Protesters greet Netanyahu as he meets UK leader in London
Associated Press/March 23, 2023
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak held talks with Benjamin Netanyahu in London
on Friday as protesters shouting "Shame!" In Hebrew demonstrated against the
Israeli leader's right-wing policies and his plans to overhaul the country's
judiciary.
Netanyahu had to pass by hundreds of protesters waving Israeli flags and waving
signs calling for the defense of Israeli democracy as he arrived at 10 Downing
St. for talks that focused on the war in Ukraine and concerns about Iran's
nuclear program.
Sunak also raised Netanyahu's controversial judicial reforms, which have sparked
mass protests in Israel and beyond. One placard in London read: "We are Israelis
and Jews living in the U.K. demonstrating against Prime Minister Netanyahu, who
is leading a judicial coup turning Israel into a dictatorship."
Some women protesting outside Downing Street wore red robes and white caps
inspired by "The Handmaid's Tale," a novel and TV series set in a dystopian
future. Similarly clad demonstrators have become fixtures of the mass protests
roiling Israel.
Sunak "stressed the importance of upholding the democratic values that underpin
our relationship, including in the proposed judicial reforms in Israel," the
British leader's office said in an official readout of the meeting.
Netanyahu's proposals would give his government more control over judicial
appointments, weaken the Supreme Court by limiting judicial review of
legislation and allow Parliament to overturn court decisions with a simple
majority vote.
He arrived in London as protesters in Israel blocked roads and clashed with
police. The planned judicial system overhaul have ignited the biggest protests
in the country's history amid rare dissent from people throughout Israeli
society, including military reservists, navy veterans, high-tech businesspeople
and former officials. Netanyahu's right-wing
government has also been criticized for its hard-line policy toward
Palestinians, including recent comments by a government minister who denied the
existence of the Palestinian people and their right to self-determination.
Sunak "reiterated our support for two-state solution," and Britain's view that
Israel's West Bank settlements are illegal and "contrary to the cause of peace,"
spokesman Jamie Davies said. "Israel is a vital international partner for the
United Kingdom, and the prime minister was visiting London, and this was an
important opportunity to talk about issues that matter to both countries,
whether that's the threat of Iran, Russia, new trade and investment … as well as
peace and stability in the Middle East," Davies said. Netanyahu's office said
the two leaders discussed the rapidly advancing nuclear program of Israel's
archenemy, Iran, as well as "deepening strategic cooperation in security,
intelligence and economic fields." As thousands of
people took to the streets across Israel on Thursday, Netanyahu, who is on trial
for corruption, defiantly pledged to proceed with the judicial overhaul, hours
after his coalition passed a law making it harder to remove him from office.
Rights groups and Palestinians say Israel's democratic ideals have long
been tarnished by the country's 55-year, open-ended occupation of lands the
Palestinians seek for an independent state and the treatment of Palestinian
Israeli citizens, who face discrimination in many spheres. Netanyahu pushed back
his departure to Britain until 4 a.m. Friday to deal with the political crisis.
US launches air strike in Syria after Iranian drone attack
kills American contractor
The Telegraph/March 23, 2023
The US carried out "precision air strikes" in Syria after a drone attack earlier
in the day killed one American contractor, injured another, and wounded five US
troops, the Pentagon said. A Department of Defense official American staff were
targeted by a drone strike on coalition base facility near Hasakah, in north
east Syria, at about 1.40pm local time (10.38am UK). The DOD linked the attack
to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of Iran's armed
forces. In a statement, the DOD said its intelligence had determined the
unmanned aerial vehicle was of Iranian origin. Lloyd Austin, the US defence
secretary, said President Joe Biden authorised a retaliation against facilities
in eastern Syria used by groups affiliated with the IRGC. “The air strikes were
conducted in response to today’s attack as well as a series of recent attacks
against coalition forces in Syria by groups affiliated with the IRGC," Mr Austin
said. Overnight, videos on social media purported to show explosions in Syria’s
Deir Ez-Zor, a strategic province that borders Iraq and contains oil fields.
Iran-backed militia groups and Syrian forces control the area, which also has
seen suspected air strikes by Israel in recent months, allegedly targeting
Iranian supply routes. Syria’s state-run Sana news agency did not immediately
acknowledge any strikes. Syria’s mission to the United Nations did not
immediately respond to a request for comment. Qatar’s state-run news agency
reported a call between its foreign minister and Jake Sullivan, the US national
security adviser. Doha has recently been an interlocutor between Iran and the US
amid tensions over Tehran’s nuclear programme. There was no immediate reaction
from Iran over the strikes, which come during the holy Muslim fasting month of
Ramadan. Mr Austin said he authorised the retaliatory strikes at the direction
of Mr Biden. “As President Biden has made clear, we will take all necessary
measures to defend our people and will always respond at a time and place of our
choosing,” Mr Austin said. “No group will strike our troops with impunity.” The
Pentagon said two of the wounded servicemembers were treated on site, while
three others and the injured contractor were transported to medical facilities
in Iraq
Another attack on an American base in Syria Friday after US
retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian-backed groups
US military carries out airstrikes in Syria after drone kills American
contractorScroll back up to restore default view.
ABC News/LUIS MARTINEZ and MATT SEYLER/ March 24, 2023
Two U.S. officials told ABC News that there was another attack on a U.S. base in
eastern Syria Friday, following a drone strike on Thursday, but that no damage
or injuries resulted from the most recent attack. The officials said the Friday
attack was from indirect fire and one of the officials confirmed it was a rocket
attack. The U.S. military conducted retaliatory airstrikes in eastern Syria on
Thursday against Iranian-backed groups after a one-way explosive drone attack
targeting a U.S. base in the region killed a U.S. contractor and injured six
others, including five U.S. service members, the Pentagon said. "Earlier today,
a U.S. contractor was killed and five U.S. service members and one additional
U.S. contractor were wounded after a one-way unmanned aerial vehicle struck a
maintenance facility on a Coalition base near Hasakah in northeast Syria at
approximately 1:38 p.m. local time," the Pentagon said in a statement. Two of
the wounded service members were treated on site, while the other four Americans
were medically evacuated to coalition medical facilities in Iraq, officials
said. A U.S. official confirmed to ABC News that both contractors were American.
U.S. intelligence assessed that the one-way attack drone that struck the base on
Thursday was Iranian in origin, according to the statement. Iran has used such
drones in the past in attacks on Saudi Arabia and in Yemen, but this drone
technology has become more noticeable after it provided hundreds of Shahed
drones to Russia that have been used in attacks against Ukrainian civilians and
infrastructure targets. "At the direction of President [Joe] Biden, I authorized
U.S. Central Command forces to conduct precision airstrikes tonight in eastern
Syria against facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)," Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said
in the statement, issued late Thursday.
"The airstrikes were conducted in response today's attack, as well as a series
of recent attacks against Coalition forces in Syria by groups affiliated with
the IRGC," he added. A U.S. official told ABC News that the airstrikes were
carried out by U.S. Air Force F-15 fighter aircraft as part of a response
approved by President Joe Biden earlier on Thursday. Biden was enroute to
Ottawa, Canada, when he approved the airstrikes presented by the Pentagon and
the U.S. intelligence community as response options to the drone attack, White
House spokesman John Kirby said during an appearance on CNN. "He made the
decision very, very shortly in that discussion to authorize the strikes against
these particular targets," Kirby said. "We're going to work to protect our
people and our facilities as best we can. It's a dangerous environment.""We are
not seeking a conflict with Iran," said Kirby. "We've been very clear with the
Iranians and with our partners about how serious the mission that we're doing in
Syria is and how we're going to protect that mission."
"Iran should not be involved in supporting these attacks on our facilities or on
our people, we've made that very very clear," said Kirby.
The U.S. has about 900 troops in eastern Syria providing assistance to Syrian
Kurdish forces in preventing a resurgence of the Islamic State.
In recent months, some of the bases have been the target of drone attacks that
had, in most instances, not led to injuries or physical damage. Iranian-backed
groups in Syria are believed to have been responsible for these attacks.
"These precision strikes are intended to protect and defend U.S. personnel. The
United States took proportionate and deliberate action intended to limit the
risk of escalation and minimize casualties," the Pentagon statement read.
"As President Biden has made clear, we will take all necessary measures to
defend our people and will always respond at a time and place of our choosing,"
Austin said. "No group will strike our troops with impunity."
"Our thoughts are with the family and colleagues of the contractor who was
killed and with those who were wounded in the attack earlier today," the defense
secretary added. In a statement, U.S. Central Command leader Gen. Michael "Erik"
Kurilla said, in part, that the U.S. "will always take all necessary measures to
defend our people and will always respond at a time and place of our choosing.
We are postured for scalable options in the face of any additional Iranian
attacks."
"Our troops remain in Syria to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS, which
benefits the security and stability of not only Syria, but the entire region,"
he added.
During Thursday's House Armed Services Committee hearing focused on the Middle
East and Africa, Kurilla was asked by Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon about the
frequency of Iranian proxy attacks on U.S. forces.
There have been 78 such attacks since the beginning of 2021, according to
Kurilla.
"It is periodic. We see periods where they will do more," he said
"So what Iran does to hide its hand is they use Iranian proxies -- that's under
UAVs or rockets -- to be able to attack our forces in Iraq or Syria," Kurilla
added.
ABC News analyst Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for
the Middle East and retired CIA officer, said the U.S. "must strike back at the
Iranian forces in Syria responsible for these attacks to such an extent that
they know the consequences of killing and injuring Americans will not be worth
the costs."Another attack on an American base in Syria Friday after US
retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian-backed groups originally appeared on
abcnews.go.com
South Africa must arrest Vladimir Putin
Ross Clark/The Telegraph/Fri, March 24, 2023
The Met Police haven’t had a great week, but spare a thought for South African
police chiefs. Later this year they may find themselves facing the trickiest
diplomatic decision of modern times: whether to arrest Vladimir Putin if he
turns up for the summit of Brics nations, planned for Durban in late August. On
the face of it, the decision should have been made for them: South Africa is one
of 123 signatories to the International Criminal Court (ICC) which last week
issued a warrant demanding that the Russian leader be arrested for war crimes if
he should set foot in any of those member countries. But it is all too easy to
imagine excuses being made, heels being dragged, the final order being given
just as Putin’s jet lifts off on his homeward journey. Leader of the far-left
Economic Freedom Fighters, Julius Malena, has already said that Putin would be
“welcome” in South Africa, while President Cyril Ramaphosa has remained silent.
There is a precedent. In 2015, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir turned up in
South Africa for a meeting of the African Union. He, like Putin now, was under
an ICC arrest warrant. Yet the South African government issued immunity to all
delegates attending. This was challenged in court, then appealed – and, guess
what, by the time the courts had finished arguing the finer points, al-Bashir
had caught his plane home. It isn’t hard to see why South Africa might be
reluctant to fulfil its duty to execute the ICC warrant. Anyone arresting a
malignant dictator cannot expect to get away without retribution. South Africa
citizens who happened to be in Russia at the time could not expect an easy
journey home. Putin’s caretaker stand-in might be tempted to claim his arrest
amounted to an act of war – although South Africa presents logistical
difficulties for acts of military retribution.
But if the ICC is not to be reduced to an impotent irrelevance, the arrest would
simply have to take place. You can’t have a war criminal allowed to swan in and
out of an ICC member state with impunity. Were that to happen it would be better
had the warrant not been issued in the first place.
For that reason, other ICC members must do all they can to support South Africa.
There have been suggestions that South Africa might be punished by the West if
it fails to fulfil its duty to arrest Putin. But far better, why not take the “I
am Spartacus” approach and negotiate with South Africa that a delegation of 123
police officers from every single ICC country be sent to effect Putin’s arrest,
then fly him to the Hague before Russia can protest? Putin, of course, may yet
decide that attending the Brics summit is not worth the risk: that his Black Sea
mansion is really rather pleasant in August. Much as we would like to see him in
the dock, this would, at least, make the ICC’s arrest warrant worthwhile. It
would reaffirm that Putin henceforth will be restricted to Russia and other
rogue countries around the world. But for the Russian president to make a
laughing stock of the ICC would be the worst possible outcome. Member states
must work out in the next five months exactly what they plan to do.
Nordic countries plan joint air defence to
counter Russian threat
COPENHAGEN (Reuters)/Fri, March 24, 2023
- Air force commanders from Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark said on Friday
they have signed a letter of intent to create a unified Nordic air defence aimed
at countering the rising threat from Russia. The intention is to be able to
operate jointly based on already known ways of operating under NATO, according
to statements by the four countries' armed forces.The move to integrate the air
forces was triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year,
commander of the Danish air force, Major General Jan Dam, told Reuters."Our
combined fleet can be compared to a large European country," Dam said. Norway
has 57 F-16 fighter jets and 37 F-35 fighter jets with 15 more of the latter on
order. Finland has 62 F/A-18 Hornet jets and 64 F-35s on order, while Denmark
has 58 F-16s and 27 F-35s on order. Sweden has more than 90 Gripens jets. It was
unclear how many of those planes were operational.
The signing at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany last week was attended by NATO
Air Command chief General James Hecker, who also oversees the U.S. Air Force in
the region. Sweden and Finland applied to join the trans-Atlantic military
alliance last year. But the process has been held up by Turkey, which along with
Hungary has yet to ratify the memberships. The Nordic air force commanders first
discussed the closer cooperation at a meeting in November in Sweden.
"We would like to see if we can integrate our airspace surveillance more,
so we can use radar data from each other's surveillance systems and use them
collectively," Dam said. "We are not doing that today."
EU could threaten to sanction washing machine
trade helping Russia fix its army
Joe Barnes/The Telegraph/March 24, 2023
Items being used to help fix the Russian army include semiconductors
Items being used to help fix the Russian army include semiconductors
The European Union could slap trade restrictions on countries helping Russia
acquire washing machines and used cars to repair its battle-stricken fleet of
tanks. Officials monitoring trade flows to Moscow have
noticed a significant uptake in the trade of consumer goods between the bloc and
the Kremlin’s traditional allies in central Asia. It is feared that the new
routes, which have jumped up in activity between 60 and 80 per cent, are being
used by Russia to circumvent the implementation of Western sanctions designed to
cripple its war machine. European capitals are
discussing plans to hit countries involved in helping Moscow dodge the punitive
measures with trade sanctions, according to a confidential paper seen by the
Telegraph. The proposal could see any country, business or individual,
restricted from accessing the single market if evidence is discovered that
proves they have re-exported banned goods to Russia. “We should give a strong
signal to persons and entities in third states,” according to the confidential
paper. “The provision of material support to Russia’s
military and defence industrial base will have severe consequences regarding
their access to the EU market.”
'Dual-use technologies'
Many of the goods being shipped contain so-called “dual-use” technologies, which
have both military and civilian applications, that are on a list of items
prohibited for export to Russia.Officials have noted that it is mainly washing
machines, second-hand cars and cameras that are among the items leaving the EU
for the likes of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. It is feared many of the
goods are being stripped down, and the semiconductors and other components being
used to rebuild Russia’s tanks, armoured vehicles and surveillance drones that
have been damaged in Ukraine.
“This is a huge problem,” a senior EU diplomatic source said. “A massive part of
that sanction fabric is being undermined.”The majority of shipments leaving the
EU head to Belarus, via the land border with Lithuania, before being re-exported
to central Asia.
Officials are able to track the export declarations as far as the bloc’s
external border before the shipments effectively disappear and are possibly
moved into Russia.
Frontier closed
The majority of the shipments leave the EU via the bloc's land border with
Belarus. Poland has shut the frontier in order to
close the loophole, but the route between Lithuania and Minsk is still open. In
private talks, Vilnius has complained that 97 per cent of the trade through its
border with Belarus has come from other member states.
The eastern capital is among 19 member states that have endorsed the plan to
slap trade restrictions on countries assisting Moscow. Under the plan, as well
as widening sanctions on Russia's allies, the bloc would first seek diplomatic
talks with central Asian countries to warn them of the consequences. Kazakhstan,
one of Moscow's closest partners in the region, has already promised to monitor
goods that pass through the country.
Russia wants demilitarised buffer zones in Ukraine, says
Putin ally
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Fri, March 24, 2023
Russia wants to create demilitarised buffer zones inside Ukraine around areas it
has annexed, an ally of President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, saying it might
be necessary to push deeper into Ukraine if such zones cannot be set up. More
than a year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Putin's core war aims remain
unfulfilled despite Russian control of nearly a fifth of the country. Neither
side shows any sign of laying down arms. Hundreds of thousands of Russian and
Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded, according to Western
military estimates. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, who casts himself as
Putin's most publicly hawkish official, said Russia needed demilitarised
corridors around the areas it is claiming - and which Ukraine says it will never
accept Russian control of. "We need to achieve all the goals that have been set
to protect our territories, that is the territories of the Russian Federation,"
Medvedev, who is deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said in an
interview with Russian media posted on Telegram. We need to "throw out all the
foreigners who are there in the broad sense of the word, create a buffer zone
which would not allow the use of any types of weapons that work at medium and
short distances, that is 70-100 kilometres, to demilitarise it," Medvedev said.
Russia would have to push further into Ukraine if such zones were not
established, he said, taking Kyiv the capital or even the Western Ukrainian city
of Lviv. Ukraine says it will never accept Russian occupation of its land.
Russia currently controls around 17-18% of Ukraine, including a swathe of land
in the east and along the Azov and Black Sea coastline as well as Crimea which
Russia annexed in 2014. The grinding artillery war between two well-dug in and
well-supplied armies has been costly for Russia and Ukraine, which is supported
by the United States and major European powers. Russia insists it will achieve
all of its war aims and has cautioned the West against testing its resolve. The
West says that what CIA Director William Burns calls Putin's "hubris" will be
pierced by battlefield defeat in Ukraine. "Nothing can be ruled out here. If you
need to get to Kyiv, then you need to go to Kyiv, if you need to get to Lviv,
then you need to go to Lviv in order to destroy this infection," said Medvedev.
Spain says world must listen to China's voice to end war in
Ukraine
MADRID (Reuters)/Fri, March 24, 2023
The world should listen to China's voice in order to find a way out of the war
in Ukraine, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Friday, ahead of his
state visit to Beijing next week. "China is a global actor, so obviously we must
listen to its voice to see if between all of us, we can put an end to this war
and Ukraine can recover its territorial integrity," Sanchez told a news
conference in Brussels following a meeting of the European Council. He is set to
visit the Chinese capital on March 31 for talks with President Xi Jinping. The
meeting between the two leaders is expected to mostly focus on the ongoing
conflict in Ukraine, in which China has described itself as "impartial" and put
forward a 12-point peace plan while calling for a comprehensive ceasefire.
Sanchez has publicly backed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's peace
proposal, which includes demands to restore Ukraine's territory to the status
quo before Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Ukraine may not be able to reclaim Crimea by force, US says
Roland Oliphant/The Telegraph/Fri, March 24, 2023
Ukraine may not be able to retake all Russian-occupied territory by force, the
US Secretary of State has suggested in remarks likely to anger Kyiv.
The US is Ukraine’s most important military backer and has publicly pledged to
continue its support for “as long as it takes” to defeat the Russian invasion.
But Antony Blinken told Congress on Thursday that some of Ukraine’s stated war
aims might only be possible through diplomacy rather than fighting. “I think
there’s going to be territory in Ukraine that the Ukrainians are determined to
fight for on the ground; there may be territory that they decide that they’ll
have to try to get back in other ways,” he said when asked whether the US backed
president Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal of liberating Crimea. He added: “These have
to be Ukrainian decisions about what they want their future to be and how that
lands in terms of the sovereignty, the territorial integrity, the independence
of the country.”
“What we don’t want, for everyone’s interests, is to have this settle in a place
and in a way that simply invites the Russians to reset, rearm and then
re-attack,” he added.
The comments underline unresolved tensions between Ukraine and several of its
Western backers over the possible outcome of the war and especially the status
of Crimea.Russia annexed Crimea during its first invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
Ukraine never accepted the annexation but did not attempt to challenge it by
force before Russia’s full-scale invasion last year.
Since then, Mr Zelensky has repeatedly stated his government’s war aims include
the liberation of all occupied territory including Crimea and parts of Donbas
occupied since 2014. The objective has divided Ukraine’s Western allies.
Some believe peace would be impossible without retaking Crimea because Russia
would retain both a base from which to attack Ukraine and a motive to do so.
Capturing it, on the other hand, could deal a decisive and humiliating blow to
Vladimir Putin that could force Russia to sue for peace. Lt Gen Ben Hodges, a
former commander of US Army Europe, argued last month that liberating Crimea
would be the quickest way to end the war and should be the main objective for
Ukraine and its allies. Others worry retaking it by force would be militarily
difficult and risk dangerous escalation because of its strategic and domestic
political importance to the Kremlin.
Chris Stewart, a Republican representative who asked Mr Blinken whether the US
backed Ukraine retaking Crimea, said: “My great fear is not a recognition that
Crimea is different than the eastern Donbas region.”Moscow considers Crimea
sovereign Russian territory and some fear the Kremlin may consider an attempt to
liberate it sufficiently threatening to warrant the use of nuclear weapons.
Since September last year, Russia has also claimed the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson
and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, but has not used its deterrent against
Ukrainian forces fighting to liberate them. “If our commitment and our agreement
with Mr Zelensky is we will support you whatever you want to achieve, including
no Russian presence at all in Crimea, then we’re asking for a world of hurt,” he
added. Mr Zelensky has never ruled out returning Crimea via diplomatic rather
than military means, and some senior Ukrainian officials have argued the
objective could be achieved without fighting. Some Ukrainian officials have
argued that it may not be necessary to fight for the peninsular. Mikhailo
Podolyak, an advisor to Mr Zelensky, told the Telegraph last year that a
sufficiently punishing Russian defeat elsewhere on the battlefield could lead to
Moscow surrendering Crimea peacefully amid an internal political crisis.
Ukraine Mercilessly Mocks Steven Seagal Over Russia
Military Report
Lee Moran/HuffPost/March 24, 2023
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense mocked Michigan-born Russian citizen Steven Seagal
after the action-movie actor reportedly promoted the teaching of martial arts to
Russian military recruits. “It’s been reported that Russia has recruited Steven
Seagal to teach martial arts to its soldiers,” the Ukraine government agency
wrote on Twitter Thursday. “Rumor has it that the Seagal-style running technique
will be included in the training,” it continued. “Russian soldiers will now be
able to run away from their positions with weird hand motions.”The swipe at the
“Under Siege” actor came as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dragged into its 14th
month. Seagal became a Russian citizen in 2016. The actor and director has
praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as “one of the greatest living world
leaders, joined a pro-Putin political party and even been named as Moscow’s
goodwill ambassador to the U.S. Seagal has been accused by multiple women of
sexual misconduct, including rape. Seagal has denied the allegations.
Front-line Ukrainian soldiers say it seems like Russia has 'unlimited' artillery
shells to throw at them while they're worried about running out
Chris Panella/Business Insider/Fri, March 24, 2023
Front-line Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas region say it seems like Russia has
"unlimited" artillery shells to throw at them — while they remain worried about
running out by the end of the year. A new BBC video follows troops in the area,
operating older Soviet-era tanks and firing at Russian enemies just 500 meters
away. As the soldiers run to safety in trenches, they tell BBC it feels like
Russia has been firing nonstop in the area. "They have an unlimited amount of
shells. They have entire warehouses full of them," one soldier, identified as
Dima, said. "They could shoot all day, and they'll never run out of shells.""And
what about us?" Dima asked. "We will run out of shells this year." There have
been ongoing debates about where Russia's munition stockpile stands a year into
the war. Kyiv's top military officials said earlier this month that Moscow could
run out of "military tools" such as armaments and weapons by the spring. They've
been issuing older ammunition, pulling antique tanks off the shelves, and
forming an alliance with China in hopes of receiving lethal aid from President
Xi Jinping. But for Dima and other soldiers on the front lines, the bombardment
still feels constant. There is potential to turn the tide, though.
"We are forming various assault brigades," he said. "And we have been given
tanks like Abrams, so I think with their help, we will win."
The US and its allies announced earlier this year that they'd send modern
Western tanks to Ukraine. Just this week, the White House and Pentagon said
they'd fast-track the delivery of older M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in eight to
10 months.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March 24-25/2023
Disasters in Turkey
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 24, 2023
[W]hen the earthquakes struck, the Kızılay [Turkish Red Crescent] had, through a
little-known business arm, sold thousands of tents to a Turkish charity, and
scored a profit of $2.5 million, instead of dispatching the tents immediately to
the victims free of charge.
The Turkish Union of Pharmacies was one of the quickest to respond to the
earthquake. The organization wanted to set up "tent pharmacies" in the
earthquake zone to distribute the most urgently needed medicines for free. It
needed tents. It had none. It appealed to Kızılay for help. Kızılay helped by
selling them tents -- at $7,000 each.
Turkey is a poor country, where per capita income is barely $9,000. The
earthquake zone is one of the country's poorest. It was not a surprise that the
Erdoğan administration pledged to build new homes for the earthquake victims.
Nice? Nice. A local chamber of architects found out that the cost to build each
apartment would be $40,000. The government said each apartment would be sold for
$80,000.
When the recent earthquakes struck Turkey, the Kızılay (Turkish Red Crescent)
had, through a little-known business arm, sold thousands of tents to a Turkish
charity, and scored a profit of $2.5 million, instead of dispatching the tents
immediately to the victims free of charge.
Compare the response of two countries, one Middle Eastern, the other European.
In Turkey, twin earthquakes on February 6 took more than 50,000 lives, even
though there was warning about the impending earthquake.
In Greece, a train crash on March 1 killed more than 50 people.
Greece's Transport Minister Kostas Karamanlis, a former prime minister,
immediately resigned, saying:
"I feel it is my duty [to step down], and a minimal gesture of respect to the
memory of the people who perished so unfairly, and to take responsibility for
the long-standing errors of the Greek state and the political system."
In Turkey, not a single official resigned, including Interior Minister Süleyman
Soylu, who has refused to answer any one of the 64 parliamentary motions, filed
by the opposition, who had warned about the earthquake.
In 1999, Islamists took to the streets to protest the secular government after a
powerful earthquake killed more than 20,000 people in Marmara region. They
blamed the earthquake on "sins committed in the quake region." Twenty-four years
later, Turkey's Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, blamed the 2023
earthquake on "a plan of fate."
After the 1999 earthquake, the Turkish government imposed a special "earthquake
levy" on mobile communications. By 2023, $37 billion had been collected from
taxpayers. When confronted by the opposition about the fate of the big sum of
money, Erdoğan said: "It was spent where it should have been spent. We don't
have time to spend on accountability."
Enter the Turkish Red Crescent (Kızılay). Founded in the 19th century as an
Ottoman war and disaster relief institution, the Red Crescent is a Muslim answer
to the Red Cross. Under Erdoğan's rule, the agency became a holding company in
structure. After the February 6 disaster, the Red Crescent was at the epicenter
of the earthquake -- but not for genuine relief efforts.
Fury in Turkey was triggered by news that when the earthquake struck, the
Kızılay had, through a little-known business arm, sold thousands of tents to a
Turkish charity, and scored a profit of $2.5 million, instead of dispatching the
tents immediately to the victims free of charge.
Haluk Levent, a Turkish rock star and head of the AHBAP charity, tweeted:
"While people were freezing to death, trying to survive, we didn't have the
luxury of debating 'should we buy these tents or not.'"
Levent conceded that Kızılay had given him "a discount," although it had charged
him Value Added Tax.
Kızılay's president, Kerem Kınık, defended the sale as "moral and legal."
There is, however, more about the Islamist relief institution.
Kızılay also sold blood, which it collected from donors, to a charity after the
February 6 earthquake. Sold blood. A quick glance at its financial reports
showed that in 2021, Kızılay earned more than $50 million in "blood services
revenues." (The 2022 figures are not out yet, but the link shows that Kızılay
sold blood after the earthquake, too). Not enough? Fine. The Turkish Union of
Pharmacies was one of the quickest to respond to the earthquake. The
organization wanted to set up "tent pharmacies" in the earthquake zone to
distribute the most urgently needed medicines for free. It needed tents. It had
none. It appealed to Kızılay for help. Kızılay helped by selling them tents --
at $7,000 each.
An opposition member of parliament revealed a police report that Kızılay had
sold 80 tons of clothing, donated to it, at 41 cents a kilo. "We are
speechless," MP Servet Ünsal said.
But wait....
A police chief was caught in the earthquake zone after he stole and unloaded at
his home hundreds of relief items including tents, electrical heaters, coats,
boots and electricity generators. He had brought them to his home in a bus
belonging to the police force.
Turkey is a poor country, where per capita income is barely $9,000. The
earthquake zone is one of the country's poorest. It was not a surprise that the
Erdoğan administration pledged to build new homes for the earthquake victims.
Nice? Nice. A local chamber of architects found out that the cost to build each
apartment would be $40,000. The government said each apartment would be sold for
$80,000.
How do Turkish banks help the victims? In Turkey, the central bank's interest
rate -- the rate that banks pay on their loans from the central bank -- is an
annual 8.50%. Three public lenders announced that they would impose "only" a
0.99% interest rate per month for loans in the earthquake zone Three days after
the quake they raised the monthly interest rate to 1.59%.
Turkey is fun unless one must live there.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Kazakhstan Avoids a Tug of War
Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al Awsat/March 24/2023
Kazakhstan held early parliamentary elections last week, with citizens casting
their ballots on Sunday and possibly ushering in independent members of
parliament, which indicates a modest increase in democratic openness.
These elections have reinvigorated the politics of this former Soviet republic
that shares borders with both Russia and China and witnessed deadly riots in
January 2022.
Kazakhstan, which finds itself in the backyard of a waning Russia and on the
path of a rising China, is turning into a site of immense geostrategic
significance in its own right. And it is now trying to avoid a situation in
which it is eaten alive by its two intimidating neighbors.
In the vast steppes of Kazakhstan, resource extraction is thriving. At the heart
of this country’s economy is the rise in exports of oil, gas, iron, copper, and
uranium, which are extracted by state-owned companies and joint ventures with
major energy companies and global mining giants.
Part of the explanation for this export boom can be found in the national
infrastructure modernization program (Bright Path) and Kazakhstan’s
investment-friendly policies. Moreover, the country is becoming a crucial
corridor for trade between East and West, bringing back memories of past
centuries and a time when most of global trade passed through the Silk Road.
Last year, Astana was faced with unique challenges. High inflation sparked civil
unrest, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine left regional
supply chains plunging into chaos. Many of the materials that Kazakhstan exports
either pass through Russia or undergo final processing there before being sent
to global markets. The two country’s deep industrial links are as much a legacy
of the Soviet era as they are a consequence of the fact that Kazakhstan is a
remote and landlocked country. Indeed, Russia has maintained a strong paternal
relationship with the former Soviet republics.
In February last year, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev irritated
the Kremlin when he refused to send troops to Ukraine despite having requested
assistance from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization to
suppress domestic protests a month prior.
Tokayev then went on to distance himself even further from Moscow, banning
Russian military symbols, canceling the May 9th Soviet Victory Day Parade, and
even declaring that he would not recognize the independence of the separatist
regions in the Donbas while seated next to Putin at an economic conference in
June. His defiance marks a pivot away from the approach towards Moscow that the
nation’s founding father, Nursultan Nazarbayev, had taken during his
twenty-seven-year reign.
While Astana is now more determined to break free from a weakened Moscow, it
lacks the security guarantees or strategic depth to stand tall on its own. If
the Kremlin were to direct its covert operations to garner influence or its
overt aggression towards Astana, the latter is far too distant from the West,
both politically and geographically, to expect the kind of assistance offered to
Ukraine. Tokayev has met Putin six times since the June conference, either for
direct talks or through regional bodies like the Eurasian Economic Union and the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Kazakhstan will always have to grapple with the fact that Moscow sees the former
Soviet republics as its “privileged sphere of influence,” indeed, many Russians
see Kazakhstan through the same distorted lens that was used to justify Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tweeted (though he
later deleted it and alleged that it had been tweeted by hackers) that
Kazakhstan was a “made-up country” in October, echoing a claim Putin has been
making of Ukraine since his annexation of Crimea in 2014.
After Russia’s neo-imperial ambitions were put on full display, Tokayev can have
no doubts about Putin’s intentions. While he may still be an ally, Tokayev is
not just another subordinate of Putin’s. One reason for Tokayev’s newfound
confidence is that his ties to Chinese President Xi Jinping have been growing
more robust. While the latter maintains its “no-limits” partnership with Russia,
Tokayev’s veiled apprehensions about Putin make the Chinese president the right
man to offer a counterweight to the Kremlin’s influence.
Xi Jinping’s first international post-pandemic foreign trip was to Astana, where
he and Tokayev discussed developing bilateral cooperation on energy, trade,
media, and water conservation extensively. Kazakhstan has always been of great
importance to Beijing, which presents the former, with its vast territory and
friendly landscapes, as a pivotal partner in the Belt and Road Initiative and a
bridge to Europe and the Middle East because
The People’s Republic of China has also invested at least 45 billion US dollars
in Kazakh oil, gas, and uranium since 1997, as it sought to meet the needs of
its rising energy consumption and curb its reliance on Russia’s pipelines and
its carriers from the Arabian Gulf.
Although their partnership seemed acceptable on paper, tangible barriers have
played a major role in putting a glass sealing over Beijing’s initiatives - the
ethnic majority in Kazakhstan shares the Turkish roots, Islamic culture, and
language of the Uighurs, who are being severely oppressed in the Xinjiang
province on the border with Kazakhstan.
However, this has not stopped politicians and business elites from embracing
Chinese investment. Nonetheless, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has reduced its
debt to Chinese institutions and bodies by 40% since 2014, and the bank is
pushing for development projects that empower Kazakh workers and domestic
industry. The central bank’s actions reflect deeper fears, as Astana seeks to
avoid the problems that its neighbors have undergone.
The examples of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have been heavily drained by
developmental debts to China, raise questions regarding the impact of such debt
on sovereignty. Despite this, the People’s Republic of China is poised to become
Kazakhstan’s largest export partner in the near future, and China’s engagement
with Central Asia will only continue to grow as the Belt and Road Initiative
develops. Thus, the People’s Republic of China is prepared to fill any gaps that
would emerge if Tokayev continued to gravitate further and further away from
Russia.
Over the decades, Kazakhstan’s multiple diplomatic channels have allowed it to
balance Russia, China, and the United States. However, this foreign policy has
only seen success in an era of US global dominance during which Washington was
reasonably willing to concede influence over Central Asia. Astana now feels it
needs to diversify its state sponsors through a third pole, which Astana hopes
would alleviate some of the pressure coming from its two neighbors.
Tokayev is unsure of which direction to take. Gravitating towards China could
stir up local unrest, and evidence of how this could threaten his hold on power
is very much fresh in Tokayev’s memory. Meanwhile, amid the new iron curtain of
sanctions, remaining so closely aligned to Moscow could cost him access to
European markets or even the broader world.
To this end, Astana is throwing its backing to an initiative linked to the
Caspian Sea. The plan is to develop an alternative route that goes the Caspian
Sea from the western coast of Kazakhstan, then to Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Black
Sea, and then the Turkish Straits, from which it sails into the world through
the Mediterranean Sea. Developing this trade route favors Türkiye, which shares
Kazakhstan’s cultural mosaic and has vigorously stood up to both Russia and
China on political issues.
At the same time, Astana is equally keen on avoiding a situation in which it's
caught in a tug-of-war. Both its neighbors pose long-term challenges to
Kazakhstan’s sovereignty; thus, Astana must continue to build relationships with
powerful friends if it is to counterbalance the historical dominance of Russia
and China’s immense pull.
And so, until further notice, we can expect Tokayev, either alone or through an
alliance with the presidents of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and
Turkmenistan, to seek closer ties with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as
he works to make the Middle Corridor a reality, thereby making possible his
country’s transition from a post-Soviet republic to an indispensable link in the
chain of global trade.
No matter how harmonious the relationship between Russia and China may be at the
moment, we must be prepared for eventual competition among them over the
Caucasus region.
Iran and the Changing of Course!
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/March 24/2023
Is the leadership in Iran trying to change course or are we witnessing a new
tactic?
The signals coming from Tehran make both assumptions plausible. To begin with,
the official discourse has shown a certain degree of moderation.
In his special message for the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) last Tuesday, for
example, the “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei abandoned his usual themes
of “wiping Israel off the map”, “robbing America’s nose in the dust” and leading
the “Resistance Front” to victory. Nor did he repeat the usual claims that the
Islamic Republic was benefiting from foreign sanctions and that its achievements
had aroused “the jealousy of big powers.” Instead, he designated the coming year
as “The Year of Curbing Inflation” and implicitly admitted that Iran remained a
poverty-stricken country.
“We are not the only country hit by inflation and difficulties of life,” he
said.” Even the rich and advanced nations now face difficulties of their own.”
He also denied that the Islamic Republic was siding with Russia in the Ukraine
war, calling the claim “an utter lie.”
Khamenei’s new tone has been echoed by messages from and speeches by the
ayatollah’s senior aides including President Ibrahim Ra’isi, Islamic Majlis
Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, and a roster of regime ayatollahs and Islamic
Revolutionary Guard generals.
At the same time, over 8000 out of an estimated 20,000 recent protesters have
been pardoned, ostensibly to mark the new year.
Perhaps a more interesting sign has come with the purges carried among security
forces with some of the more hardline officers moved aside or sent into early
retirement.
The diplomatic corps is also undergoing a silent purge with at least 30
ambassadors replaced and the nominal Foreign Minister, the hardliner Hossein
Amir-Abdullahyan, shut out of key dossiers such as normalization with Saudi
Arabia, concluding a new security accord with Iraq, and negotiating a timetable
for the withdrawal of Iranian troops from Syria. Instead, Khamenei has recalled
figures long associated with the rival faction once headed by the late Ayatollah
Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. It was Admiral Ali Shamkhani, a former defense
minister and current secretary of the High Council of National Security who was
sent to Beijing to conclude a deal aimed at restoring diplomatic ties with Saudi
Arabia.
The same Shamkhani has also taken over the dossier of relations with Iraq and
launched a normalization process with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and
Egypt while Kamal Kharrzi and Abbas Araqchi two diplomats who served under
Rafsanjani and president Muhammad Khatami are given the even tougher task of dis-engaging
Iran from the Syrian quagmire without endangering Bashar al-Assad’s position in
parts of the country under his nominal control.
All these moves on the diplomatic chessboard indicate a sidelining of the Quds
Corps that under the late Gen. Qassem Soleimani had exclusive control over
Iran’s policy in what Tehran likes to call “West Asia” instead of the Middle
East.
Khamenei has always harbored a deep suspicion of Islamic Republic’s professional
diplomats believing that being foreign educated most of them were seduced by the
West and did not share his dream of creating “the New Islamic Civilization” as
an alternative model for mankind.
Some career diplomats fanned the fires of that suspicion in a number of ways.
For example, in a number of op-eds he wrote for US newspapers, former Foreign
Minister Muhammad-Javad Zarif designated himself as “Iran Foreign Minister”
making no mention of the Islamic Republic let alone paying homage to Khamenei or
the regime’s founder “Imam” Khomeini.
Tehran’s recently retired Ambassador to the United Nations Majid Takht Ravanchi
followed the same style. In his farewell message, he said he had worked to
“serve the interests of the Iranian nation”, making no mention of the Islamic
republic or Khamenei.
According to a study by Mahin Nava’i over 100 Islamic Republic diplomats have at
the end of their official terms or after retirement either remained in the
countries of their posting or kept their families there. Though only a handful
defected to join the opposition, many bought property in Europe, Britain, the
US, and, above all, Canada.
No one could assert this as fact but some analysts believe that Khamenei had
also grown wary of Soleimani’s increasing tendency to run his “West Asia”
fiefdom as he pleased with a dwindling intellectual input from Khamenei’s
household.
The ayatollah’s decision to tighten his personal control on key foreign policy
dossiers may have been partly prompted by the past six months of nationwide
protests which he believes were sustained y unprecedented support from Western
powers and their allies in “West Asia.” Thus, offering a less hostile profile in
foreign relations could help to dishearten the protestors.
At the same time, the “Supreme Guide” is trying to reinterpret the protests as a
symptom of economic discontent; a theme e emphasized in his New Year message. In
that vein, he forgot his shibboleth of “resistance economics” and called for
“investment and production”, goals that cannot be achieved without distancing
Iran from the “lone wolf” strategy it has pursued since 2005.
This is why Tehran now seems keen to revive the stalled “nuke talks” amid
unconfirmed reports of contacts between the Biden administration and Tehran’s
man at the UN Saeed Iravani.
If there is indeed a change of course the most important part of the scheme is
the prospect of normalization with Saudi Arabia.
It was the Rafsanjani team, including his favorite son Mehdi, who first broke
the ice with the Saudis in 1995. That was followed by the signing of a security
accord and an agreement on trade and economic cooperation. The first major Saudi
investment in the Islamic Republic came in 1996 when a Saudi business bought
Iran’s largest producer of vegetable oil.
Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz visited Tehran in 1997 with pomp and
ceremony amid high hopes for closer ties.
The Saudis helped persuade the Islamic nations to let Iran host the Islamic
Conference summit. Ignoring his hostile rhetoric, in 1997 the Saudis even
invited President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, an arch-foe of Rafsanjani, to visit the
kingdom in the forlorn hope of keeping the newly brokered deals on track. Soon,
however, it became clear that flush with massive oil revenues due to high prices
and rising exports, the Tehran leadership was reverting to its dream of hegemony
in “West Asia.”
Are we heading for a Deja-vu of the Deja-vu? Only time will tell.
Russia’s Disinformation Machine Has a Middle East Advantage
Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/March 24/2023
The region has been most receptive to Moscow’s war narrative, which Russian
state-run media outlets have been permitted to spread far and wide with no
Ukrainian or Western counter-narrative.
Over a year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the group of countries directly
aligned with Moscow remains a motley handful of lackeys and vassals, including
Aleksandr Lukashenko’s Belarus and Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. Just six countries
voted with Moscow against the U.N. General Assembly’s anniversary resolution
calling for Russian withdrawal, compared with 141 that voted for it. By this
measure, the effort to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin on the world
stage has been a great success.
But such votes can be deceiving. The Middle East is a prime example.
Conversations with elites in many Middle East capitals—influential diplomats,
government officials, journalists, and businesspeople—reveal a surprising
appreciation for Russia’s position, including sympathy for Putin’s argument that
Russia was forced to act to avoid encirclement by NATO. In addition, the Arab
Youth Survey 2022, conducted by the Dubai-based PR consultancy firm ASDA’A BCW,
found that more young Arabs (aged 18-24) blame the United States and NATO,
rather than Russia, for the war in Ukraine.
There are several reasons so many of Washington’s traditional friends in the
Middle East are, at best, ambivalent about the Ukraine war. Some of this has to
do with their own sense of abandonment by the United States in their hour of
need, a common complaint of Saudis and Emiratis who, like Ukraine, have been on
the receiving end of Iranian drones—but not, in their view, the same massive
showing of U.S. support.
Some relates to the fact that Washington—which was willing to send more than
half a million U.S. soldiers, sailors, and airmen to liberate Kuwait a
generation ago—considers it a heavy lift today to send arms and ammunition to
support the Ukrainians fighting their own battle, suggesting there is scant
chance the United States would ever again send its young men and women to
protect a distant Arab state.
Some of this is born of the perception that Russia is the strong horse, more
comfortable wielding power than Washington—evidenced by Putin’s willingness to
prop up his ally in Damascus after former U.S. President Barack Obama balked at
the use of force despite promising to punish Syria for using chemical weapons
against innocent civilians. And, especially common in Cairo salons, is nostalgia
for the days when Russia was the prime supplier of weaponry at a time, decades
ago, when Egypt was an Arab colossus.
These ideas, however, did not take root all by themselves. The missing
ingredient that brought these ideas home to so many in the Arab world is the
pervasiveness of Russia’s disinformation outlets.
Years before the Ukraine invasion, the Russian state-owned media outlets RT
Arabic and Sputnik Arabic emerged as major sources of legitimate regional news
in the Middle East. In the West, RT’s and Sputnik’s sister outlets never had the
same degree of credibility and, with the start of the war, they were either
banned outright, as was RT’s fate in Britain, or chose to shut down due to
“unforeseen business interruption events,” as happened to RT America after
satellite TV provider DirecTV and streaming company Roku both dropped the
channel in 2022.
But in the Middle East, Russian state-run media have retained full access to
airwaves throughout the Ukraine crisis, enabling the Kremlin to propagate its
narrative on the war via regional media. And Moscow knows its audience in the
Middle East well. It routinely frames the war as a Russian challenge to the
U.S.-led hegemonic order, an argument that plays well in many Arab capitals.
For example, the Arabic news aggregator Nabd frequently reposts RT Arabic
articles. The European Union’s disinformation database offers an extensive
record of RT Arabic reposting across regional media, at Nabd and other sites.
The headlines are as typical as they are illustrative: “The West and US not
interested in supporting Ukraine but weakening Russia,” “Washington’s mission is
to limit the growth of its European and Asian partners,” “Ukraine is forced to
fight on behalf of NATO,” and so on. These Russian-sourced articles—and even
cartoons—eventually made their way into the Arab media, without reference to
their origin.
The impact has been real and powerful. Time and again, in private conversations
with Arab interlocutors, I heard echoes of the Kremlin’s favorite propaganda
lines: Russia was provoked by NATO enlargement; Russia-Ukraine history is
“complicated”; and the United States, which invaded Iraq without cause, has no
standing to criticize Russian action in Ukraine.
Diplomatically, these sentiments have translated into repeated calls by regional
officials, including those of the UAE and Iraq, for peaceful negotiations to
resolve the Ukraine-Russia crisis, a non-accusatory alternative to condemning
Russia for its unprovoked aggression. To give another example, immediately after
the invasion, the Arab League issued a statement that expressed “great concern”
over the situation in Ukraine and called for “all efforts aimed at resolving the
crisis through dialogue and diplomacy,” without naming Russia as the aggressor.
Economically, Russia’s information offensive has scored a victory in convincing
Arab capitals not to join Western sanctions regimes, with some Middle East
states (chiefly Turkey and the UAE) even registering increases in their
bilateral trade with Moscow in a year when the West was pushing to isolate
Russia.
If this is the situation after year one of the war, imagine how much worse it
will be as the war continues. Because the United States and its allies have
largely succeeded in getting most world leaders to vote the way they want in the
U.N. General Assembly, they believe they are winning the battle of narratives.
But in much of the world—including important places such as India, South Africa,
and much of the Middle East—Russia is faring better than they probably think.
And with another year of disinformation and propaganda masquerading as news and
analysis, sympathy for Moscow’s position will only spread.
Helping Ukraine achieve a victory on the battlefield is the swiftest and surest
way to ensure Moscow doesn’t deepen its hold over Arab hearts and minds. But as
the West settles in for a protracted war, there is much still to be done to
counter Russia’s deceptive narrative and compete with its warped media outlets.
The West needs to seize the initiative in countering Russian disinformation in
the Middle East and broadcast its own vision clearly to the region.
A battle for narratives has always been an inseparable part of warfare.
Effectively countering Russian narratives outside the liberal world is a key
missing piece of Western efforts to support Ukraine. Past EU practices of
countering disinformation can be useful, so there is no need to reinvent the
wheel entirely. But the Middle East presents its own unique challenges.
For example, more than Europe, the Middle East needs stronger journalism
training programs and improved access to outside information tools. This could
include increased funding for outlets such as VOA Arabic and BBC Arabic, as well
as effective ways to get the Western—including, in particular, the
Ukrainian—narrative into local media. Indeed, the region has yet to hear the
Ukrainian narrative to the same degree it has heard the Russian one. Most of
all, the West needs to think strategically and long term. Western leaders talk
about isolating Russia globally, but they cannot achieve this goal without
discrediting the Kremlin’s narrative where it resonates most.
*Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow in The Washington Institute’s Diane and
Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle
East. This article was originally published on the Foreign Policy website.
Khamenei Attempts to Restore Optimism and Normality in Nowruz Speeches
Omer Carmi/The Washington Institute/March 24/2023
Despite facing unprecedented protests and other deep challenges, the Supreme
Leader delivered upbeat New Year’s messages and argued that simply controlling
runaway inflation would solve most of Iran’s ills.
When Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered his annual speech marking the Iranian
new year on March 21, one moment spoke volumes. As he mentioned President
Biden’s support for the recent mass protests in Iran, the crowd began shouting
“Death to America!” Visibly annoyed at being interrupted, Khamenei told them,
“Well yes, death to America, but let me speak!” The exchange epitomized the main
thrust of this year’s Nowruz messages, which were marked by a forced insistence
that all is well even as the regime deals with waves of internal and external
challenges. After suppressing the country’s most significant protests since 1979
without offering any reform, Khamenei sought to downplay the ongoing social
turmoil and project a return to normalcy after the worst of the COVID-19
pandemic.
A Ship in Quieter Waters
Khamenei often uses his annual Nowruz remarks to convey his thoughts on domestic
and foreign affairs, and this year’s twin addresses—the March 21 speech and a
Nowruz Eve message the day before—were no exception. Some recent Nowruz speeches
have reflected Iran’s grim circumstances; for example, the 2020 speech came just
a few weeks after the pandemic broke out and was delivered from a secluded room,
spurring Khamenei to describe the previous year as “tumultuous” and the country
as a “ship in stormy waters.” His 2021 and 2022 speeches were likewise delivered
remotely due to coronavirus concerns. Yet this year’s speeches marked a return
to the occasion’s traditionally festive atmosphere in the holy city of Mashhad.
The celebrations began with his March 20 Nowruz Eve message—typically a shorter
speech summarizing the past year, setting the tone for the coming year, and
focusing on domestic issues. Noting that the Persian year 1401 was “full of
events” both good and bad, Khamenei asserted that Iran’s overall situation is
improving. He also insisted that “the most important issue for the nation” is
the economy, urging officials to invest more time in improving the people’s
livelihood. Indeed, the past year was a bad one for Iran’s currency, with the
dollar reaching a record exchange rate of 600,000 rials as recently as late
February.
Khamenei also uses his yearly Nowruz Eve messages to unveil annual slogans. Nine
of the past ten slogans focused on the economy, and this year’s slogan continued
that theme: “The Year of Controlling Inflation and Growing Production.” In that
vein, Khamenei highlighted inflation as the country’s preeminent problem,
explaining that the increased prices for food and basic necessities are
disproportionately affecting the weaker sectors of society. The day before his
message, reformist newspaper Etemad had published a grim infographic
illustrating major price spikes over the past year, including a 125% increase
for meat, 250% for onions, 82% for eggs, and 78% for rice.
Yet Khamenei took an optimistic approach to these issues. Noting that all
countries—including ones with strong, advanced economies—have such problems, he
asserted that some are “worse off than us in this sense” and implicitly referred
to the recent banking scandals in the United States and Europe. To “save the
country” from these problems, he urged officials to improve domestic production.
If Iran reduces its economic problems, he argued, many of its other problems
“will also be solved”—presumably referring to the protests and social turmoil
that have shaken the country since September. Continuing this hopeful tone,
Khamenei noted that although his goals for the past year were not fully met, the
country was able to decrease its unemployment rate, achieve growth in prominent
sectors, and get “thousands of factories” operating again.
Uniting the Faithful, Looking East, and Lying About Ukraine
Khamenei’s March 21 Nowruz Day speech maintained this positive spin. During last
year’s speech, many observers noted the contrast between his claims of victory
over the pandemic and his decision to stay in Tehran and avoid the main
festivities once again. This year, he finally returned to the grand stage in
Mashhad, speaking unmasked before masses of worshippers in the Imam Reza Shrine
alongside prominent figures such as his son Mojtaba and Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami.
Disregarding the continuous unrest his regime has experienced since last fall,
the Supreme Leader declared that Iran is in a good situation. He asked, “Which
country and revolution do you know that has been able to resist the blows of the
world’s most powerful countries?” He then lashed out at the West for “meddling”
with Tehran’s internal affairs and creating “unprecedented Iranophobia” via the
media. In his view, the West’s goal is to change the essence of Iran’s “Islamic
democratic regime” and transform it into a “fake” Western democracy that obeys
the “global arrogant powers.” These powers aim to erode Iran’s “points of
strength,” he argued, referring to the ideals of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini and velayat-e faqih, the doctrine granting the Supreme Leader his
authority. Yet instead of weakening Iran, these efforts supposedly had the
opposite effect—as he put it, “All those who supported the recent riots received
a slap in the face from the people.”
Following this blatant mischaracterization of the protests, Khamenei called on
his audience to stay united in the face of America’s “hybrid war” against them,
and not to let small differences of opinion polarize society or demoralize
youths. Iranians are people of faith, he noted, and even those who appear to be
less religiously adherent on “certain issues” still have strong faith in the
“Quran, God, and the Imams.”
Khamenei applied the same rosy tint to Iran’s foreign affairs. Despite the
enemy’s attempts to isolate Tehran internationally, he argued, the opposite
happened. The regime’s relations with Europe may have weakened, but its
relationship with the Middle East improved and its ties with Asia become “100
percent stronger.” Surprisingly, he did not mention the government’s recent
agreement with Saudi Arabia, perhaps out of a sense of restraint given the
longstanding enmity between Riyadh and Tehran. In any case, his speech reflected
the theme of “Looking East” that ran throughout Iranian rhetoric in the past
year, including frequent media headlines like “The Sunset of the Westernizers”
and the “Rise of the East.” President Ebrahim Raisi echoed this theme in his own
Nowruz Eve speech, stating that the new global order entails a transition to
Asia and emphasizing Iran’s irreplaceable geostrategic position in that order.
Alignment with the East was also evident when Khamenei discussed the Ukraine
war. During last year’s Nowruz speech—delivered a few weeks after Russia
invaded—Khamenei did not mention Moscow but heavily criticized the West for its
supposed “hypocrisy” about the war. Since then, however, Tehran has intensified
its support for Russia, providing drones that facilitated the Kremlin’s
bombardment campaign against Ukrainian civilian targets. Despite clear evidence
of this military support, however, Khamenei’s Nowruz speech asserted that Iran
is not involved in the war, instead blaming Washington for starting and
prolonging the conflict for its own benefit.
What to Expect in the Year 1402
Although Khamenei criticized Washington’s supposed attempts to weaken Iran and
demoralize its people, his Nowruz Day speech did not specifically mention the
stalled nuclear negotiations or the recent advancements in the regime’s nuclear
program. Instead, he repeated his old argument that the best way to counter U.S.
sanctions is not through diplomacy, but through domestic efforts that render
them toothless. This stance is unsurprising given that the regime has been
downplaying the prospects of returning to the 2015 nuclear agreement for more
than a year now.
More specifically, Khamenei emphasized the need to continue decreasing the
country’s dependence on the West, noting how other sanctioned countries have
improved their situation via methods such as “putting the dollar aside and
trading in local currencies.” He also invoked the longstanding regime concept of
a “resistance economy,” urging officials to rely on the country’s internal
powers and resources as they strive to expand domestic production. In his view,
this entails building confidence in the private sector and encouraging people to
participate in the economic field, thereby improving their livelihoods and
facilitating continuous, rapid national growth. Such rhetoric helps illustrate
why Khamenei may genuinely see the regime’s deepest set of challenges in decades
as an opportunity to advance his broader mission of moving the Islamic Republic
ever further away from the West.
*Omer Carmi is a former visiting fellow at The Washington Institute.
Global support for Syria needed to rebuild
human life
Tala Jarjour/Arab News/March 24, 2023
Reconstruction, after destructive events such as earthquakes and wars, typically
becomes a priority on various international economic agendas. In parts of the
Arab world that have suffered internal conflict, such as Iraq, Yemen and Syria,
discussions about reconstruction have taken different courses and continue to
have diverging outcomes given the varying conditions in these countries. In all
cases, however, stability is viewed by stakeholders as a precursor to a healthy
appetite for international investors and donors.
In the Syrian case, reconstruction has been as protracted a topic as the
conflict itself. But given the devastation left behind by the recent earthquake,
the humanitarian crisis has become of a scale that necessitates immediate
action.
An international donors’ conference for Turkiye and Syria was held in Brussels
this week. Its purpose was to coordinate the global relief response to the
devastating earthquake that hit the two countries in early February. Monday’s
conference was open to all EU member states and neighboring countries, as well
as the UN, global financial institutions and various other stakeholders involved
in humanitarian relief efforts. In anticipation of the conference, the UN
Development Program prepared a report on reconstruction and rehabilitation
needs, while the World Health Organization issued a number of guiding requests.
Among other things, the WHO called for lifesaving health support for 8.8 million
people affected by the earthquake and its aftermath, among whom it estimated 4.9
million people were most severely impacted. For Syria, the WHO’s appeal put the
health response cost at $33.7 million, of which $24.5 million was pledged by
various international stakeholders and countries ahead of the conference.
Underlining the “legendary resilience” of the Syrian people, Dr. Ahmed
Al-Mandhari, the WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean regional director, said they had
been tested like never before by the recent earthquake. He also noted the
repeated crises and disasters that the Syrian people have been enduring for more
than a decade. For Syrians to emerge and recover from this latest catastrophe,
the top global health official in the region stressed, the need for assistance
is urgent.
Volunteers on the ground are raising the alarm that more help is needed with the
psychological needs of survivors
With the WHO estimating that 70 percent of the country’s population will need
humanitarian assistance this year, Al-Mandhari’s words could not come at a more
pressing moment for Syria. But despite huge limitations on resources, both
material and human, the WHO’s reporting on the current situation and needs is as
revealing as it is pertinent. Over and above the lack of basic life needs in the
shelters currently used by earthquake survivors, overcrowding and inadequate
sanitation are among the main concerns of WHO experts. Their greatest fear, both
in the short and long terms, is the spread of diseases, which could cause risks
to even more people than the number that lost their lives in the earthquake.
This fear, one might note, is not limited to physical diseases, it also touches
on the emotional and psychological side of human health. There are immediate and
evident needs to be addressed concerning human health. Most common are injuries
and life-threatening illnesses, such as diabetes, hypertension and urgent
vaccinations. In the case of earthquake survivors, specific risks are becoming
common challenges. Significant in Syria today is kidney failure, which can occur
as a result of complications from injuries to the limbs and muscles, and is
associated with crush syndrome, among other conditions. Specialized equipment,
such as kidney dialysis machines, are desperately lacking. But beyond the
injured body, complications such as these leave the victim, as well as their
family and loved ones, under added pressures and losses, which exacerbate stress
and uncertainty for the future.
In addition to medication, medical supplies and equipment, community volunteers
on the ground, as well as WHO workers, are raising the alarm that more help is
needed with the psychological needs of survivors. Forced to address the
invisible trauma of the earthquake, first responders who had in some cases
received training in psychological first aid are facing an overwhelming problem.
The current scale of need on the ground is as grave as the shock that this
catastrophe has caused, if not more so. It is common knowledge that a full
recovery from any sort of physical injury would not be complete without physical
rehabilitation therapy, and this too is a stated need among those for which the
WHO is fundraising for resources. But another sort of rehabilitation is
necessary in the Syrian case, namely psychological therapy, and this is crucial
for the recovery of the earthquake survivors’ mental health. Any discussion of
reconstruction efforts in Syria must, if the WHO’s contribution to this week’s
donors’ conference is anything to go by, start from rebuilding the shattered
selves and bodies of its people.
• Tala Jarjour, Ph.D. (cantab), is the author of “Sense and Sadness: Syriac
Chant in Aleppo.” She is Visiting Research Fellow at King’s College London and
Associate Fellow at the Yale College.