English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 23/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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15 آذار/2023

Bible Quotations For today
Waking the Widow’s Only son from death: Jesus touched the bier, and the bearers stood still. And he said, ‘Young man, I say to you, rise!’The dead man sat up and began to speak
Martha, Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away from her.’”Luke 10/38-42: “Now as they went on their way, he entered a certain village, where a woman named Martha welcomed him into her home. She had a sister named Mary, who sat at the Lord’s feet and listened to what he was saying. But Martha was distracted by her many tasks; so she came to him and asked, ‘Lord, do you not care that my sister has left me to do all the work by myself? Tell her then to help me.’But the Lord answered her, ‘Martha, Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away from her.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 22-23/2023
Police fire tear gas at armed forces retirees protesting salaries
MPs Kanaan, Adwan meet IMF delegation
Delegation representing military retirees meets Premier Mikati
American University of Beirut and Malala Fund hold policy forum and launch campaign for girl education
On World Water Day, European Union and UNICEF reaffirm commitment to support sustainable water management in Lebanon through development projects
L’Oréal pledges support to Lebanese NGOs ‘ABAAD’ and ‘Farah Social Foundation’ as part of its commitment to women empowerment in Lebanon
MPs raise questions on financial crisis, get no answers
Lebanese plunge into poverty as crisis bites
Mawlawi vows to curb bird and gunfire threat near airport
Tallet el-Khayat water station reopens with EU and UNICEF support
Report: US says Franjieh would be legitimate president as Geagea rejects Azour
Banks suspend open-ended strike a day before Ramadan
Berri meets Iran’s Kharrazi, Makassed delegation, Karami
Hawat says will appear before Judge Mansour Thursday in the lawsuit filed against him by Judge Aoun
Bou Habib tackles developments with Iranian delegation, Tunisian Ambassador
Fuel prices witness additional increase in Lebanon
US Ambassador Shea wishes Muslims in Lebanon a Ramadan Kareem
Lebanon reaffirms commitment to border demarcation with Cyprus
Sayyed Nasrallah: KSA, Iran Kept Lebanon out of Recent Talks, ‘Israel’ in Distress
Lebanon's fuel sector in turmoil as exchange rate fluctuations persist
Hamieh refutes allegations about the new airport terminal
Hezbollah Infiltrates Israel (Part 1): Another Step Toward Changing the Rules of the Game/Matthew Levitt/The Washington Institute/March 22/2023
Hezbollah Infiltrates Israel (Part 2): Potential Responses/Nadav Pollak/Washington Institute/March 22/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 22-23/2023
Syria says Israel attacked Aleppo airport, no casualties
UN Secretary-General urges ‘peace, mutual respect, solidarity’, in message marking beginning of Ramadan
Israeli leader halts bill against Christian proselytizing
Israeli army admits to covert influence campaign in Gaza war
Ecumenical patriarch: Russian Church shares blame for 'crimes' in Ukraine
Days after Putin's dead-of-night trip to a city far from the front, Zelenskyy visited the heart of the bloodiest fighting in Ukraine
Russia Wants a Committed Fossil Fuel Relationship. China Has Cold Feet
Russia’s Shadow Army Threatens to Dump Dead Bodies on ‘Dirtbag’ Officials
Cursing Putin, top Ukrainian officials said peace talks with him are 'impossible' and that 'such evil' can only be crushed by force
Khamenei Blames Protests on West, Refuses Changing Constitution
China, Japan leaders end visits to warring capitals

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 22-23/2023
What’s in the Saudi Iranian Beijing Deal?/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Insight/March 22/2023
A New Order in the Middle East?/Iran and Saudi Arabia’s Rapprochement Could Transform the Region/Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr/Foreign Affairs/March 22, 2023
The World Economic Forum and the West's Next Act?/J.B. Shurk/Gatestone Institute./March 22, 2023
Facing existential threats, Israelis can’t resist fighting one another/Clifford D. May/The washington Times/Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Trump…Who Wins and Who Loses?/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/March 22/2023
There Is No ‘Right’ or ‘Left,’ Only Right or Wrong/Raymond Ibrahim/March 22/2023
Lyse Mauvais & Solin Muhammed Amin/Syria Direct: ‘Strangers in our own homes’: A waning Assyrian community holds on in northeastern Syria/March 22/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 22-23/2023
Police fire tear gas at armed forces retirees protesting salaries
Naharnet/March 22/2023
Security forces fired tear gas on Wednesday to disperse hundreds of protesters, mainly retired soldiers, who tried to break through the fence leading to the Grand Serail in downtown Beirut. Retired members of the armed forces protested their low salaries at Beirut's Riad al-Solh Square. They rallied earlier Wednesday in front of Parliament as joint parliamentary committees convened to discuss the financial situation in the country. The retirees protested their salaries that have become too low to cover basic expenses. “My monthly salary is $40. How can I survive,” screamed a retired army officer. The retired soldiers demanding better pay clashed with riot police and troops. Several people suffered breathing problems from the tear gas. The protesters hurled stones at the officers protecting the government headquarters and repeatedly tried to break through the fence. A delegation from the protesting retired soldiers around noon managed to meet with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail, but said it failed to agree with him on solutions, threatening to escalate the protests when cabinet convenes on Monday. The retirees asked change MP Paula Yacoubian, lawyer Wassef al-Harakeh and other activists who joined the protest to leave, as they wanted only ex members of the armed forces to participate. Former MP and former brigadier general Chamel Roukoz joined the protest. "It's a shame that soldiers are firing tear gas at retired soldiers," Roukoz said, stressing that the protests should go on until the retirees' demands are met.
All public sector employees, including the members of the armed forces, get paid in Lebanese pounds, while grocery stores and other businesses are now pricing their goods in dollars. The Lebanese pound lost more than 15% of its value on Tuesday alone, tanking to more than 140,000 pounds to the dollar, and angry protesters briefly closed roads in different parts of the country, including the main north-south highway, as well as others in Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley. The currency regained some of its value selling for 110,000 pounds to the dollar later on Tuesday, after a central bank statement. Protestors also rallied Wednesday on Baalbek's road, and fishermen blocked roads in Jnah, to protest the dire living conditions, while public administration employees demanded salary adjustments in a protest in front of the Ministry of Finance in Beshara el-Khoury in Beirut.

MPs Kanaan, Adwan meet IMF delegation

NNA/March 22/2023
Head of the House Committee of Finance and Budget, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, and MP George Adwan, who chairs the House Committee of Administration and Justice, are currently meeting with a delegation of the International Monetary Fund at the parliament.

Delegation representing military retirees meets Premier Mikati
NNA/March 22/2023
National News Agency correspondent on Wednesday reported that a delegation of military retirees, representing all military corps, met with Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, where they presented their demands, as per a statement distributed during the sit-in. Caretaker Premier Mikati promised the delegation to include their demands in the first session of the Council of Ministers next week. Additional numbers of riot police were brought in to reinforce the entrances to the Grand Serail and the vicinity of the House of Parliament, as the military retirees continued their protest movement. The Riad Solh Square is now witnessing calm after the clashes that erupted earlier between the security forces and the demonstrators.

American University of Beirut and Malala Fund hold policy forum and launch campaign for girl education
NNA/March 22/2023
The Asfari Institute for Civil Society and Citizenship at the American University of Beirut (AUB), in partnership with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at AUB and the Malala Fund, held a high-level policy forum to discuss an ongoing project for setting an inclusive framework for human security and social justice within the restructuring and reform plan of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Government of Lebanon. The discussion that took place this March, centered around education as an equalizer and enabler for social justice and human security and raised awareness on the importance of girl education. Participants discussed the main findings of a research report that was conducted by the Asfari Institute. The report highlights the main challenges the education sector is facing; the gendered impact of these challenges on women, girls, and vulnerable communities; and offers policy recommendations that prioritize financing and reforming the education sector promoted as an essential pillar of social justice. The policy forum addressed the recommendations laid out in the report as well as the right mechanisms to implement them in the Lebanese context.
The policy forum was also the launching ground for a national social media campaign that emphasizes the right of girls to education as a fundamental factor for achieving social justice, human security, and gender equality.The event gathered concerned stakeholders and decision-makers, representatives from the IMF, civil society organizations, and attendees from the different realms of advocacy. It engaged them discussions about the new social contract and the impact of restructuring programs on social sectors, and most particularly, on education. The event also invited all relevant stakeholders to adopt an inclusive, equitable, intersectional, and transformational approach while implementing national recovery programs.
More on the issue at hand
The burden of the economic crisis in Lebanon is being disproportionately carried by vulnerable groups, namely women and girls. In 2021, 82 percent of Lebanon’s residents were living in multidimensional poverty, especially due to the government’s measures on rolling back subsidies and social safety nets. With the multiple crises witnessed, adolescents and mainly girls, are facing major restrictions on their movement and access to public services such as education. Towards this end, the Lebanese government sought the financial and technical assistance of the IMF to regain the trust of the Lebanese people and bring back the confidence of the international community. Even though IMF austerity may lead to adverse effects on financing the education sector, which could impact the overall quality of education, providing national budget fiscal space and gender budgeting are among the approaches that are usually taken by governments to target gender gaps through the alignment of resources for this objective. Any recovery plan that fails to promote education as a social equalizer and enabler might jeopardize long-term prospects of sustainable recovery and social peace, in addition to economic development. Policy recommendations in Lebanon should center on the principles of equity and intersectionality to cater to the needs of the most vulnerable groups, particularly women and girls. --AUB

On World Water Day, European Union and UNICEF reaffirm commitment to support sustainable water management in Lebanon through development projects

NNA/March 22/2023
On the occasion of World Water Day, the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Water Establishment (EBML) in partnership with UNICEF and the European Union, inaugurated the newly rehabilitated Tallet Al Khayat station,one of the oldest water pumping stations in Beirut.
The project has been developed to provide improved and sustainable water services to more than half a million peoplein Beirut through a system relying on gravity and pumping. Amid the continuous crisis affecting the water infrastructure, access to water is still one of the biggest challenges, putting the health of millions of people, particularly children, at risk. Through its long-standing partnership with UNICEF, the European Union has been one of the strongest supporters of Lebanon’s water sector amid the continuous crisis. Since November 2018 it has so far contributed EUR130 million to develop and implement water projects and strengthen national capacity of the water establishments to ensure public access to water resources now and for the future. “Today, on World Water Day we invite every actor to consider public water and wastewater services as an urgent national priority”, said European Union Ambassador to Lebanon Ralph Tarraf. “Exiting the crisis in the sector and achieving a sustainable solution while providing citizens with reliable water services should be a collective responsibility, with the Government, the water establishments, and citizens each having roles and responsibilities.”
“We are proud of our long-standing partnership with the EU to improve access to water in Lebanon especially during these challenging times where millions of people are still affected by the limited availability of clean water,” said Edouard Beigbeder, UNICEF Representative in Lebanon. “We should not forget, especially on World Water Day, that access to water is a fundamental right. Our priority remains strengthening the water establishments capacity to ensure equitable and sustainable provision of water to reduce the spread of infections and save lives”.
Beirut & Mount Lebanon Water Establishment director general, Jean Gibran said: “The EBML commends international organizations’ efforts to rescue the water sector and ensure its continuity, especially UNICEF and The European Union, who supported, since the beginning of the Lebanese economic crisis, in reparing and maintaining the functioning of all pumping stations in addition to rehabilitating some of the most damaged, which ensured the suistainability of access to water to all citizens” .“Water is life, it is the life of every human being. Your support today has contributed to the revival of this sector, without it, we wouldn’t have been celebrating world water day today” he concluded. Sustainable management of water resources requires strong cooperation between all stakeholders beyond the water sector. Investing in safe, sustainable and inclusive access to water is not only a matter of protecting children's health today, but also ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come. -- UNICEF Lebanon

L’Oréal pledges support to Lebanese NGOs ‘ABAAD’ and ‘Farah Social Foundation’ as part of its commitment to women empowerment in Lebanon

NNA/March 22/2023
As part of L’Oréal’s continuous efforts and commitment to support women’s rights and contribution to society, L’Oréal Fund for Women has pledged €225,000 to ABAAD and Farah Social Foundation (FSF), two Lebanese non-profit organizations, to further their mission of protecting, advocating, and empowering women in Lebanon. The pledge was announced at a women’s empowerment panel discussion at ESA Business School Beirut on Tuesday, 21st of March2023. The event was held under the patronage and in the presence of His Excellency Mr. Ziad Makary, Lebanese Minister of information. It was attended by Mr. Vismay Sharma, President of L’Oréal SAPMENA zone and member of L’Oréal Group Executive Committee, and more than 250 guests including government officials, diplomats, representatives of UN Global Compact Lebanon, UN Women, and NGOs.
The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing inequalities, affecting women socially and economically at a disproportionate level as well as increased cases of domestic abuse. Against this backdrop and under “L’Oréal For the Future” program, the 2030 sustainable development roadmap, the Group launched the L'OréalFund for Women in 2020, a three-year charitable endowment fund of 50 million euros to support highly vulnerable women around the world. Mr. Vismay Sharma, President of L’Oreal SAPMENA zonestated: “With the L’Oréal Fund for Women, our aim is to help the most vulnerable women in our communities to gain access to education, find work, fight abuse, violence and poverty.” He added that “L’Oréal has already supported more than 1.2 million women and girls worldwide, through partnerships with 480 charities and partners in 77 countries.” Vismay also expressed his happiness to be present in Lebanon to announce the launch of new partnershipswith two leading Lebanese NGOs. He hoped this contribution will make a positive change in the daily lives of those who have been most affected by crises, including women refugees and women with disabilities.
From her end, Mrs. Emilie Wahab Harb, Managing Director of L’Oréal Liban commented on the partnership with ABAAD and Farah Social Foundation saying that “L’Oréal Liban has a very proud history of empowering women and helping them to actively contribute to shape a better Lebanon for the future.” She added “the numerous crises in Lebanon spares no one and has had devastating effects on people who were already struggling socially and economically or were victims of abuse, especially women.”Furthermore, she explained that “as a Group championing the cause of women, it was essential to play an active role towards tangible improvements in Lebanon by helping the most vulnerable women get out of poverty and preventing domestic and sexual violence, and support survivors”.
On this occasion, His Excellency Minister Ziad Makary stated: "As the patron of this women empowerment panel, I would like to extend my sincere appreciation to L'Oréal for their unwavering commitment to the cause of women. Their support and investment in empowering women, is truly commendable and is a testament to their dedication to creating a more equitable and just society.” He added that: “by working on the advancement of the rights and opportunities of women, L'Oréal is not only making a positive impact on the lives of countless individuals but is also contributing to the overall progress and development of our society.”ABAAD, the leading organization of its kind in the country, which provides 24/7 crisis support for survivors of abuse and domestic violence, will utilize the funds to provide awareness and sensitization sessions to women and girls survivors or at risk of GBV. In this regard, the funds will be used to support the most vulnerable among them through vocational training to develop new skills, reinforce their agency and autonomy, and foster their self-esteem. With the support of L’Oréal Fund for Women, ABAAD has the objective of supporting more than 4,370 women and girls directly, in addition to around 22,800 indirectly in their communities. Mrs. Ghida Anani, Founder and Director of the NGO said: “Empowerment of women is about leadership and agency, which can just be realized when we start actively and genuinely listening to women we serve, engaging them in the planning and thinking, and ensure they lead the way in voicing out their rights and power.”Farah Social Foundation has been actively contributing to the development of the local community on social and economic levels, especially the disadvantaged ones. The NGO will utilize the fund to extend its mission while offering vocational trainings in redesigning items and producing healthy snacks to 1,200 women and female youth from 8 different areas across Lebanon. In addition, FSF will be providing women with an opportunity to start their own businesses. With the support of L'Oréal Funds for Women, the NGO’s objective is to improve the livelihoods of vulnerable women across the country, eradicate poverty, and empower individuals to participate in the development of themselves and their communities. Dr. Habbouba Aoun, the NGO president said: "Women play an important role in fighting poverty and advancing their families. Evidence shows that empowered women are behind any local community development. Women’s contribution to the economies of their families and women’s economic independence are key to healthy kids, youth, families, and communities in general."

MPs raise questions on financial crisis, get no answers

Naharnet/March 22/2023
Joint parliamentary committees convened Wednesday to discuss the financial situation and to question the government represented by Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Shami and Minister of Finance Youssef el-Khalil. Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab said that the dialogue was constructive and calm during the session. "Why can't Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh attend a session at the parliament to be questioned by the MPs," Bou Saab asked, adding that the MPs have agreed that Salameh must come to parliament and give answers. "We have no answer about who is responsible of the exchange rate swings and who is setting the exchange rate," Bou Saab said. The MPs also criticized the banks' open-ended strike, as Hezbollah MPs asked during the session why the banks shut their doors a day after the start of the October 17 protests. Hundreds of retired soldiers demanding better pay tried to break through the fence leading to the Grand Serail in downtown Beirut, as the joint committees convened. They clashed with riot police and troops and several people suffered breathing problems from the tear gas. On Tuesday, protestors also blocked roads in parts of Lebanon after the Lebanese pound briefly hit a new low amid a historic economic crisis that seemingly has no end in sight.

Lebanese plunge into poverty as crisis bites

Agence France Presse/March 22/2023
Lebanon's economic meltdown, described by the World Bank as one of the worst in recent global history, has plunged most of the population into poverty according to the United Nations. In the past two days, Lebanese rallied and blocked roads to protest deteriorating living conditions. Hundreds of retired servicemen protested on Wednesday their army pensions that have lost most of their value, as the currency plummeted to new lows against the dollar. "I used to make around $4,000, now my pension is worth $150," retired general Khaled Naous, 70, told AFP. "We're unable to secure basic necessities."The Lebanese pound, officially pegged at 15,000 to the dollar, has been trading on parallel markets at more than 100,000 against the greenback -- a dizzying plunge from 1,507 before the collapse began in late 2019. Lebanese banks have imposed draconian withdrawal restrictions since then, essentially locking depositors out of their life savings and infuriating Lebanese. "The people are demanding their most basic rights" while the authorities "respond with tear gas," complained army veteran Amal Hammoud, 53.
'Selling my furniture' -
The currency plunge has been devastating for those on public sector salaries, and has triggered price hikes on imported fuel, food and other basic goods. Supermarkets this month started to price items in dollars. Retired teacher Hatem, 73, said he had given up meat and stopped using his car because costs were prohibitive."I am forced to be a vegetarian," he told AFP in downtown Beirut. "How am I supposed to live? My pension is $150 while the generator bill is $200." Many Lebanese rely on private generators for power because the cash-strapped state is only producing a few hours of electricity a day. Some protesters shouted slogans against the political elite, which is widely blamed for the country's financial collapse. Marwan Seifeddine, a father of five, told AFP he was barely making ends meet on a pension now worth just $50. "I'm unemployed and I've been selling my furniture to feed my family," he said. Political inaction has been a hallmark of the Lebanese economic crisis. Since last year, the country has had no president and only a caretaker government, amid persistent deadlock between rival blocs in parliament. In late 2019, Lebanon was rocked by unprecedented protests against the political class and deteriorating living conditions.

Mawlawi vows to curb bird and gunfire threat near airport

Naharnet/March 22/2023
Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi on Wednesday pledged that measures will be taken to limit the threats of birds and gunfire in the vicinity of Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport. “I have tasked municipalities with taking the necessary measures regarding bird breeders in the area. As for gunfire, security forces will perform their role to rein in this phenomenon,” Mawlawi said after a meeting for the Central Security Council. Separately, Mawlawi said “the issue of the country’s safety is a common responsibility among all security forces and citizens.”“We are going through difficult circumstances and the infiltration of any fifth column might lead to a bad result,” the minister added. Commenting on recent incidents in the South, Mawlawi said: “We are ready to suppress and prevent construction violations and no one can claim to have any cover.”“There will not be any political or security cover for encroachment on public properties,” Mawlawi emphasized.

Tallet el-Khayat water station reopens with EU and UNICEF support

Naharnet/March 22/2023
On the occasion of World Water Day, the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Water Establishment (EBML) in partnership with UNICEF and the European Union inaugurated the newly rehabilitated Tallet el-Khayat station, one of the oldest water pumping stations in Beirut. The project has been developed to provide improved and sustainable water services to more than half a million people in Beirut through a system relying on gravity and pumping. Amid the continuous crisis affecting the water infrastructure, access to water is still one of the biggest challenges, putting the health of millions of people, particularly children, at risk. Through its long-standing partnership with UNICEF, the European Union has been one of the “strongest supporters of Lebanon’s water sector amid the continuous crisis,” a joint statement said. “Since November 2018 it has so far contributed EUR130 million to develop and implement water projects and strengthen national capacity of the water establishments to ensure public access to water resources now and for the future,” the statement added.“Today, on World Water Day we invite every actor to consider public water and wastewater services as an urgent national priority,” said European Union Ambassador to Lebanon Ralph Tarraf. “Exiting the crisis in the sector and achieving a sustainable solution while providing citizens with reliable water services should be a collective responsibility, with the Government, the water establishments, and citizens each having roles and responsibilities,” Tarraf added. “We are proud of our long-standing partnership with the EU to improve access to water in Lebanon especially during these challenging times where millions of people are still affected by the limited availability of clean water,” said Edouard Beigbeder, UNICEF Representative in Lebanon. “We should not forget, especially on World Water Day, that access to water is a fundamental right. Our priority remains strengthening the water establishments capacity to ensure equitable and sustainable provision of water to reduce the spread of infections and save lives,” Beigbeder added. Beirut & Mount Lebanon Water Establishment director general, Jean Gibran, said: “The EBML commends international organizations’ efforts to rescue the water sector and ensure its continuity, especially UNICEF and the European Union, who supported, since the beginning of the Lebanese economic crisis, in repairing and maintaining the functioning of all pumping stations in addition to rehabilitating some of the most damaged, which ensured the sustainability of access to water to all citizens.”“Water is life, it is the life of every human being. Your support today has contributed to the revival of this sector, without it, we wouldn’t have been celebrating world water day today,” he concluded. “Sustainable management of water resources requires strong cooperation between all stakeholders beyond the water sector. Investing in safe, sustainable and inclusive access to water is not only a matter of protecting children's health today, but also ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come,” the joint statement said.

Report: US says Franjieh would be legitimate president as Geagea rejects Azour

Naharnet/March 22/2023
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea answered three Lebanese officials weeks ago by saying that Suleiman Franjieh would be a “legitimate president,” a media report said on Wednesday.“If elected, we will deal with him as a legitimate president of the Lebanese republic,” al-Akhbar newspaper quoted Shea as telling the officials. Separately, the daily reported that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has recently rejected an initiative by Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat for the election of ex-minister Jihad Azour as president. “The short-lived initiative was discussed by Jumblat aides with prominent forces in the Christian community, based on the stances of the LF and the Free Patriotic Movement on the (presidential candidates) list attributed to Archbishop (Antoine) Bou Najem,” al-Akhbar added. Jumblat considered that “it is possible to propose names that might not be fully endorsed by the Amal-Hezbollah duo while not representing a provocation to them or to foreign parties,” the daily said. “Taking the FPM’s veto on Salah Honein into consideration, Jumblat tried to convince the LF with endorsing Azour, seeing as he is one of the PSP leader’s candidates who enjoys the FPM’s support and has strong ties with Speaker Nabih Berri. Saudi Arabia also does not oppose his nomination and he does not seem to have a serious problem with the Western parties, topped by the U.S. and France,” al-Akhbar added. Geagea, however, rejected Azour’s nomination for several reasons, including “the dispute related to the stances of his late uncle Jean Obeid, who was at odds with the LF.” “The LF also considers that the Azour family stands by the FPM and that Azour did not seek to build a relation with the LF and has ambiguous stances on the March 14 movement,” al-Akhbar added. “The LF has said that its rejection of Azour is final and will not be affected by any development or change in the stances of any domestic, Arab or international party,” the daily said.

Banks suspend open-ended strike a day before Ramadan

Naharnet/March 22/2023
Lebanon’s struggling banks resumed work Wednesday on the occasion of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, after a day of protests and sharp currency swings. The Association of Banks announced Tuesday night that all lenders in the country will suspend the strike and resume work Wednesday. Last month, Lebanese commercial banks went on an open-ended strike after Lebanon’s Court of Cassation overturned a 2022 verdict in favor of Fransabank, sued by two depositors demanding their money in cash. Later that month, angry protesters smashed windows and set tires on fire outside two of the country’s biggest banks in Badaro. On Tuesday, protesters closed down major roads in parts of the country, including the main north-south highway, as well as others in Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley, after the Lebanese pound briefly hit a new low. Later on Tuesday, the central bank said it will be selling the U.S. dollar for 90,000 pounds and called on banks to end their strike and take part in the sale. After the statement was issued, the pound regained some of its value selling for 110,000 pounds to the dollar. The crash of the pound came days before the start of Ramadan. “The situation is very bad especially with the rise of the dollar. You cannot buy anything here," said Beirut resident Essam Rayes about the rising prices of food products. The striking banks had reopened their doors in late February following caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s request to do so for people to retrieve their salaries. Last Tuesday, the banks shuttered their doors again and slammed the judiciary for not “correcting flaws” in recent lawsuits against them.

Berri meets Iran’s Kharrazi, Makassed delegation, Karami

NNA/March 22/2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday welcomed at his Ain al-Tineh residence head of Iran’s Strategic Council for Foreign Policies, Dr. Kamal Kharrazi, in the presence of Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani.
The meeting touched on the general situation in Lebanon and the region, as well as on bilateral relations between the two countries. Speaker Berri later received a delegation representing Makassed Philanthropic Association, which included members of its board headed by Dr. Faisal Sinno. The meeting reportedly focused on the country’s general situation and developmental affairs. Later in the afternoon, Speaker Berri discussed with MP Faisal Karami the latest political developments and legislative affairs. On emerging, Karami stressed that the solution to the nation’s crises begins when the House Speaker re-invites political parties to dialogue, “otherwise there will be no solutions.”

Hawat says will appear before Judge Mansour Thursday in the lawsuit filed against him by Judge Aoun

NNA/March 22/2023
The press office of MP Ziad Hawat announced that the lawmaker will appear before Judge Nicolas Mansour at 10:00 am tomorrow (Thursday) at the Baabda Justice Palace, in the lawsuit filed against him by Mount Lebanon Prosecutor, Judge Ghada Aoun.

Bou Habib tackles developments with Iranian delegation, Tunisian Ambassador

NNA/March 22/2023
Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Dr. Abdullah Bou Habib, on Wednesday welcomed Head of the Strategic Council for Iranian Foreign Relations, Dr. Kamal Kharazi, accompanied by Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani. The meeting reportedly touched on the Iranian-Saudi agreement, the latest developments in the nuclear file, and the situation in the region. Kharazi stressed "the importance of holding presidential elections in Lebanon by consensus among the Lebanese, without any external interference." Minister Bou Habib separately discussed with Tunisian Ambassador to Lebanon, Burawi Al-Imam, bilateral relations and ways to develop them, as well as the economic, financial, and social conditions in the two countries. Talks between the pair also touched on coordination between both countries within international organizations.

Fuel prices witness additional increase in Lebanon
NNA/March 22/2023
Fuel prices have further increased in Lebanon on Wednesday with the price of a canister of 95-octane gasoline rising by LBP 127,000 that of 98-octane gasoline by LBP 128000 that of diesel by LBP 119000 and that of LP gas by LBP 83000.
Consequently, prices are as follows:
95-octane gasoline: LBP 2.064.000
98-octane gasoline: LBP 2.112.000
Diesel: LBP 1.937.000
LP gas: LBP 1.360.000

US Ambassador Shea wishes Muslims in Lebanon a Ramadan Kareem

LBCI/March 22/2023
For the Holy Month of Ramadan, US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea extended her “best wishes” to Muslims across the world. In a video, Shea expressed from Saida: “as a new crescent moon welcomes the Holy Month of Ramadan, we extend best wishes to Muslims across Lebanon, the United States, and around the world.” “Ramadan is a time to come together as a community and to show acts of Kindness and compassion,” Shea added, stressing that “this year, from beautiful Saida, Lebanon’s third largest city, we extend our best wishes to all who are practicing, and we wish you a Ramadan Kareem.”

Lebanon reaffirms commitment to border demarcation with Cyprus

LBCI/March 22/2023
Lebanon reaffirms commitment to border demarcation with Cyprus
Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, met with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides to discuss the maritime border demarcation between both countries. While Lebanon did not disavow its commitment to the demarcation, it stated that it could not make any decisions as it is currently a caretaker cabinet. Moreover, the maritime boundary issue requires a president to be in office to finalize any treaty between the two countries. However, the meeting between Minister of Public Works Ali Hamieh and the Cypriot minister responsible for the demarcation issue remained possible. But do we need a treaty negotiated by the President of the Republic and approved by Parliament? Currently, Lebanon and Cyprus have only an oral agreement on the borderline from point 23 to point 1. This agreement was made after the maritime border demarcation deal with Israel.
On the other hand, Cyprus has only approved a treaty confirming the borderline between points 1 and 6, a treaty based on a decision taken by the Lebanese government under Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and on the basis of a bilateral agreement between Cyprus and Israel. But, the Parliament did not ratify this treaty, and Cyprus was subsequently informed that Lebanon had modified the borderline, with point 23 becoming the new reference point. Therefore, the Cyprus treaty was canceled under the demarcation agreement with Israel, and the recognition of these effects by Cyprus. Lebanon and Cyprus also have a memorandum of understanding, signed by former Foreign Minister Zeina Akar in 2021, regarding cooperation between both countries in the oil sector. However, this memorandum has not been issued by decree, as the Ministry of Public Works has expressed observations about some of its contents. The demarcation of the maritime border between Lebanon and Cyprus requires a final text, which can be a treaty or an agreement similar to that with Israel. Thus, any obstruction or pretext against demarcation is not in Lebanon's interest.

Sayyed Nasrallah: KSA, Iran Kept Lebanon out of Recent Talks, ‘Israel’ in Distress
Al-Manar/March 22/2023
The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, cautioned ‘Israel’ that an attack on Lebanon could trigger a war in the region and even the demise of the usurping entity, pledging a swift response from the resistance to any attack on the country’s territory.
During the memorial ceremony for the late founding leader of Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association, Hajj Hussein al-Shami, Sayyed Nasrallah extended his deepest condolences to his family and called on Almighty Allah to inspire them patience. His eminence reiterated Hezbollah’s unwavering commitment to piety since its inception with which the founding leaders of the resistance, who carried their blood on their palms, were martyred, died, or lived a life full of accomplishments.Speaking about Al-Shami, Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized that his contribution to Hezbollah’s founding generation was invaluable.
“Hajj Hussein al-Shami was an early believer in the Islamic revolution in Iran, and one of the first to join Imam Khomeini. A son of a religious family, he dedicated his youth to the cause of Islam, Palestine, and the nation, demonstrating his commitment through cultural, organizational, and military endeavours,” Sayyed Nasrallah said. He continued by saying: “As a member of Hezbollah’s Shura for years, Hajj Hussein assumed numerous responsibilities, most notably as a founder of the Beirut region in the organization’s initial formation of regions. He was also instrumental in establishing the foundations of financial management, implementing financial controls, and developing the rules and regulations that the organization still adheres to.”
Sayyed Nasrallah paid tribute to Hajj Hussein’s significant contributions, citing his remarkable achievements and pivotal role in shaping Hezbollah’s foundations. “Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association, established by Hajj A-Shami, has developed remarkably since the US decision to oblige Lebanese banks to block Hezbollah officials’ accounts,” he said, adding that all Hezbollah officials’ funds which were expelled from the Lebanese banks were deposited in Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association.
“Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association is a significant, noteworthy, and esteemed institution that has garnered both admiration and attention,” his eminence said, adding that its size and solidity further add to its reputation as a prominent institution that has been targeted by various entities.
“We are keen that this Association be for everyone, without distinguishing between one political party and another, or between one sect and another, or one region and another. Our decision to open several branches is to serve people, leaving it up to the people to decide as we don’t want to impose ourselves on anyone. Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association does not take interest and usury from people, nor does it take profits, but rather provides services to people,” he indicated.
On the Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah emphasized that the recent reconciliation agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia did not address the Lebanese file, and that the presidential file is a ‘domestic’ issue that requires the Lebanese to benefit from the positive atmosphere generated by the agreement. He expressed hope that the Iranian-Saudi agreement would assist in the presidential file, despite its slow progress. Sayyed Nasrallah dismissed the claims that there would be an annex to the Saudi-Iranian agreement, stating that they are ‘unfounded’.
On the 10th of March, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to restore ties and reopen diplomatic missions after a years-long rift in an agreement that was reached on Friday during talks in Beijing between top security officials from the two rival Middle East powers.
On Megiddo Operation Accusations: Buzz Off
Concerning the Israeli accusations related to the blast that went off at Megiddo’s junction in the northern of occupied Palestine, Sayyed Nasrallah said “Hezbollah’s silence is part of the battle with the enemy.”
“The incident in northern occupied Palestine confused the enemy at all levels, Hezbollah was criticized for keeping mum, but our silence is part of the psychological media battle with the enemy,” his eminence indicated.
“I will respond to the enemy’s threats that if Hezbollah was proven to be responsible for the Megiddo operation they will do such and such, by telling tell them: ‘buzz off’.”
However, he added that the Israelis said something correct that if Hezbollah is responsible for the operation, it is not afraid to go into battle.
Hezbollah’s leader cautioned ‘Israel’ that an attack on Lebanon could trigger a war in the region and even the demise of the entity.
“Today, ‘Israel’ is in crisis, and no day has ever passed on this temporary usurping entity with such weakness, impasse, crisis, confusion, internal conflict, despair and mistrust,” his eminence stressed. “When the leadership of the enemy becomes foolish at this level, we realize that its demise is coming soon.”
He pledged that any Zionist military or security attack on Lebanon would receive a swift response from the resistance. “The resistance in Lebanon adheres to its commitment and its decision that any attack against any person present on Lebanese territory, whether he is Lebanese, Palestinian, or of another nationality, or an attack on a Lebanese region, will not get unanswered decisively and swiftly,” he added.
On Lebanon’s Ongoing Crisis: Don’t Remain Idle
In regards to Lebanon’s dire economic situation, Sayyed Nasrallah urged the state not to remain idle. He criticized the dollar rate fluctuations and the current approach to printing liras, indicating that a discussion is necessary. His eminence lamented that if Lebanon could not elect a president or form a government, there would be no justification for refusing an economic dialogue table.
“Amid the difficult economic and living conditions and the dollar’s rate increase, the state cannot stand idly. There are measures that must be taken and can mitigate,” he said. “We have consistently urged to prioritize economic discussions over political disputes and come together to establish a dialogue table, not for political gain, but to save our struggling economy and improve the livelihoods of our people,” Sayyed Nasrallah added, stressing that there is absolutely no justification for not calling for a dialogue table to exit the economic crisis. The Hezbollah leader stressed that all political forces in Lebanon should take responsibility for the country’s economic condition, not only the central bank governor or the prime minister. “Rescuing the situation and the pound as well needs a real comprehensive multi-dimensional plan.”
On Solutions to the Crisis: Head to East
Nowadays, the entire Gulf region is heading east, Hezbollah’s S.G. said. He emphasized that rescuing the lira necessitates a comprehensive and practical plan, and that foreign investments could be drawn, particularly from the Chinese who have expressed readiness. “Saudi Arabia has invited the Chinese president to Riyadh and set up three summits for him, and the figures indicate that they started investments that worth hundreds of millions of dollars,” his eminence pointed out.
Sayyed Nasrallah questioned why doors are being closed to China, asserting that this only requires a political decision and courage. “Why is there so much fear and slowness in Lebanon? This issue is not only the responsibility of the prime minister, but also the political forces,” he wondered. His eminence gave an example of the Bank turmoil in the US which is currently rattled by the bankruptcy protection filing by Silicon Valley Bank and troubles faced by other American banks by saying it was “part of the tip of the iceberg downfall,” renewing the call on Lebanese for cooperation, solidarity and compassion among people.
On Yemen, Sayyed Nasrallah expressed hope that things in Yemen will follow the path of ending the aggression and blockade. “Since day one of the aggression against Yemen, we stood by the Yemeni people, and this is a position we are proud of. Today, due to regional factors, a solution may be reached, and this is what we call for.”On Iraq, Sayyed Nasrallah said these days mark the 20th anniversary of the American invasion of Iraq. “This invasion was required to be a prelude to the invasion of 6 other countries, including Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Somalia and Libya,” he pointed out. “The Iraqi resistance and Iran’s steadfastness are what led to the failure of the American scheme in the region, however, there are still challenges facing the Iraqi people in confronting the American influence.”
Sayyed Nasrallah concluded his address by extending his congratulations to all on the commencement of the holy month of Ramadan, the month of great spiritual significance and a time to turn towards the Almighty. He urged the people to maximize the benefits of the holy month on spiritual, faith and social levels while praying for their health and safety. He then made a pledge to Hajj Hussein al-Shami that Hezbollah would remain committed to the path they had started together until all the objectives for which sacrifices were made are achieved. He emphasized that no matter the challenges or risks, Hezbollah’s commitment to its goals would remain steadfast and the achievements of the past will continue to grow and flourish.—

Lebanon's fuel sector in turmoil as exchange rate fluctuations persist

LBCI/March 22/2023
Lebanon's fuel sector in turmoil as exchange rate fluctuations persist
As the exchange rate continues to rise rapidly, gas stations are closing one by one, only to reopen with the release of a new pricing table. However, this problem was discussed in a meeting between importers of petrol companies, representatives of gas stations and fuel distributors, as well as representatives of gas distributors to find solutions. The participants considered that the ultimate solution is to dollarize the sector, but this requires a decision from the Energy Minister and the government. Moreover, the Energy Minister is determined to refrain from dollarizing this sector, as it violates the law. At the same time, he allowed citizens to pay in dollars at gas stations if they wanted, according to an exchange rate that will be updated with every new pricing table.Another solution suggested by the participants is the launch of an electronic platform that allows the exchange of fuel prices to change automatically with the exchange rate.
Alternatively, the Energy Ministry could issue a new pricing every hour. While waiting for the implementation of these solutions, the participants found a temporary solution that will begin to be implemented in the upcoming days at gas stations after informing the Energy Minister and the Prime Minister of its details.
Maroun Chammas, former head of the Petroleum Importing Companies, told LBCI that the temporary solution in this sector would be to allocate pumping machines whereby customers can pay in dollars at gas stations and allocate other pumping machines whereby customers pay in Lebanese lira. If the dollar exchange rate fluctuates, the machines allocated for payment in the local currency can stop operating. The rest allocated for payments in dollars would still be functional so that both customers and gas station owners minimize their losses.
The lack of a final decision from the meeting requiring the implementation of this solution immediately has caused dissatisfaction among representatives of some unions who considered it unacceptable to wait any longer.
Dollarization has become a reality, but will citizens accept it?

Hamieh refutes allegations about the new airport terminal

LBCI/March 22/2023
In a press conference he held on Wednesday, the Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport addressed the contract for the construction of a new passenger terminal at the Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, explaining the positive reasons for the project, its objectives, legal basis, financing, duration, and expected fees for the benefit of the treasury. Minister Ali Hamieh announced that the Ministry of Public Works and Transport had launched a project to build a new passenger terminal where the old cargo terminal was located as an integrated project for the current passenger terminal.
Upon announcing this news, Hamieh was subject to criticism since there was no tender for the project, and it was not yet approved by Public Procurement Authority, as the public procurement law was recently issued. He pointed out that the decision was to resort to attracting financing and investment from abroad in support of the provisions of the relevant airport fees law in this regard.  He explained that they had researched Lebanese laws and learned that Beirut Airport is subject to a special law, which is the “airport fees” law.  Hamieh stressed that financing the preparation and occupancy of the new building will be with foreign investment of $122 million, paid entirely by the private sector, and that will be done through the Lebanese Air Transport (LAT).  He stated that the completion period of the project is four years, after which the ownership of these facilities will be transferred upon completion to the Register of Built Areas belonging to Civil Aviation.  The Public Works Minister pointed out that it aims to attract low-cost airlines, encourage tourism throughout the year, and charter flights carrying pilgrims, visitors, and seasonal tourists. He continued that it would be an additional tributary of the financial tributaries provided by the facilities of the Ministry of Public Works and Transport for the benefit of the public treasury.

Hezbollah Infiltrates Israel (Part 1): Another Step Toward Changing the Rules of the Game/Matthew Levitt/The Washington Institute/March 22/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116832/116832/
Despite representing a significant escalation, the incident also continues a longstanding pattern of behavior aimed at rewriting the informal understandings established since the 2006 war.
Earlier this month, a terrorist operative infiltrated Israel from Lebanon, crossing the UN-demarcated Blue Line and evading border patrols and remote detection systems. After traveling sixty kilometers south to the Megiddo junction, he planted a sophisticated improvised explosive device of a type typically used by Hezbollah, which seriously wounded an Arab Israeli citizen upon detonating. He then hitched a ride from a passing car while security forces led a manhunt. When authorities stopped the car near the border town of Yaara, the driver exited the vehicle but the terrorist refused. Armed with an explosive belt and other weapons, he was soon shot dead.
Authorities have yet to release their findings on the suspect’s identity, but the military and the Israel Security Agency believe he was operating on Hezbollah’s behalf. The attack was claimed on Telegram by a previously unknown group calling itself “The Galilee Forces—the Lone Wolves,” which also posted pictures of various Israeli locations and officials with the caption “the next targets.” Yet authorities appear to view this claim as propaganda intended to distract from Hezbollah’s role—after all, little transpires across the border without the group’s consent, and the device used in the attack is a type associated with Hezbollah, not Palestinian groups.
Perhaps more important, the incident is just the latest in a long series of escalating Hezbollah efforts to change the understandings and red lines that govern its conflict with Israel. Part 1 of this PolicyWatch focuses on these efforts to rewrite the rules of the game; Part 2 assesses Israel’s calculus and response options.
Moving the Goalposts
When Hezbollah deployed the bulk of its forces to defend the Assad regime during Syria’s civil war, it sought to buy time regarding its fight with Israel. This meant focusing on long-term projects that would improve its ability to attack Israel at a later date, such as investing in cross-border attack tunnels and importing and developing precision-guided missiles. Hezbollah spent years and significant funds on the first project, building tunnels that Israel exposed in December 2018 and destroyed over the next few months. The second project continues to pose a threat today, despite Israel’s efforts to interdict missile-related transfers via Syria and publicly reveal missile facilities operating in densely populated urban areas of Lebanon.
More recently, with the vast majority of its forces back in Lebanon, Hezbollah has been eager to reestablish its “resistance” credentials—albeit in a way that minimizes the likelihood of a full-scale Israeli military retaliation. In the lead-up to the 2006 war, Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah famously miscalculated how Israel would respond to the cross-border abduction of its soldiers. According to Israeli analysts, however, he now believes he can predict the enemy’s behavior more accurately, leading him to sharpen his rhetoric and approve a series of increasingly aggressive actions over the past three years.
Previously, the unwritten understanding was that Hezbollah would not attack Israel so long as Israeli forces limited themselves to targeting its weapons shipments in Syria—the group’s red lines would only be crossed if Israel struck targets on Lebanese soil or killed the group’s personnel in any country. For example, on September 1, 2019, Hezbollah fired antitank missiles at an Israeli military ambulance driving between the border communities of Avivim and Yiron, an apparent response to a pair of Israeli attacks: an airstrike that killed two Hezbollah operatives in Syria, and a drone strike in Beirut that targeted a propellant mixer used in the manufacture of precision-guided missiles.
At the same time, however, Hezbollah began taking steps to change the rules of the game. After the 2019 Beirut drone strike, Nasrallah vowed to shoot Israeli surveillance drones out of Lebanon’s skies—whether or not they were involved in attacks. By February 2022, he was boasting that Hezbollah’s antiaircraft capabilities had forced Israel to drastically reduce its drone flights over south Lebanon and refrain from any such flights over the Beqa Valley for months. Israeli Air Force chief Amikam Norkin seemed to confirm some of these claims that April—he acknowledged Hezbollah’s aggressive air defenses, noted that the group had nearly shot down an Israeli drone in 2021, and described the resultant dampening of intelligence collection overflights, concluding that “Israel no longer has full freedom of action over Lebanon.”
Similarly, during the same August 2019 speech in which he threatened to down Israeli drones, Nasrallah warned Israeli soldiers stationed along the border to be on guard: “Starting today, you should stand on a leg and a half and wait for us.” In July 2020, the military reportedly thwarted an attack by armed Hezbollah operatives who had crossed into Israeli territory.
The August 2020 Beirut port explosion soon distracted Hezbollah from escalating tensions (at least beyond increasing its observation posts along the Blue Line), but the threatening rhetoric picked up again in 2021. When Iran sent a shipment of oil to Lebanon that August, Nasrallah publicly warned that any attack on the vessel would be considered an attack on Lebanese territory and therefore trigger a Hezbollah response—a risky statement in the midst of Israel and Iran’s tit-for-tat escalation against each other’s shipping interests.
In July 2022, Nasrallah further upped the stakes by threatening to target Israel’s offshore natural gas platforms if it began extracting from the Karish field before reaching a maritime border deal with Lebanon. Soon thereafter, three Hezbollah drones were shot down en route to the Karish platform. Although subsequent investigation indicated they were not armed, the message was clear—Nasrallah warned that these drones were “only the beginning” and pledged to go to war over the gas issue if necessary. Hezbollah followed up with a propaganda video featuring drone footage of the Karish field apparently being targeted with a weapon.
Nasrallah’s willingness to risk conflict with Israel was partly driven by domestic economic and political pressures—he no doubt relished the opportunity to tell the Lebanese people that Hezbollah’s weapons had protected the oil delivery from Iran and secured a better deal on the maritime border and gas field. Yet he also seemed to believe that Israel was unlikely to respond in a serious way to his threats given Hezbollah’s enlarged precision missile arsenal and air defense systems. Instead, he assessed that Israel would scale down its drone flights, refrain from attacking Iran’s oil shipment, and delay gas extraction until the maritime agreement was concluded—and in each case his assessment was correct. The question that Israeli intelligence analysts are now debating is whether this string of accurate assessments has emboldened Nasrallah to take even greater risks.
Current Risk of Miscalculation, Escalation
On March 6, a week before the Megiddo bombing, Nasrallah claimed that Hezbollah had restrained Israel’s freedom of action to attack the group by reestablishing a “balance of deterrence.” Referring to the country’s ongoing political turmoil, he declared that Israel is on the verge of civil war and concluded that “all indications point to the end” of the Jewish state.
In addition to the bombing, this month has seen increased reports of cross-border harassment against Israelis, such as aiming laser beams at drivers and homes, setting off loud explosions on the Lebanese frontier, and pouring sewage toward Israeli towns. Hezbollah has also disrupted Israeli efforts to reinforce the security barrier in several spots along the Blue Line.
This creeping aggressiveness—coupled with Nasrallah’s sense of having deterred Israel and weakened its military posture—indicate that Hezbollah will continue trying to move the goalposts. For Israel’s part, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has pledged, “Whoever is responsible for the attack will regret it. We’ll find the right place and time and we’ll hit them.” The decisionmaking on this response could be affected not only by security considerations, but also by the government’s hardline composition and its desire to tamp down Israel’s domestic crisis. In other words, multiple factors on both sides provide ample opportunities for miscalculation and unintended escalation.
*Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow at The Washington Institute, director of its Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, and creator of its interactive map tool covering Hezbollah’s worldwide activity.

Hezbollah Infiltrates Israel (Part 2): Potential Responses
Nadav Pollak/Washington Institute/March 22/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116832/116832/
Israel should act quickly on multiple fronts to show Hezbollah that it will not shy away from escalation, especially if the organization continues to test it.
Two things became clear after the perpetrator of last week’s Megiddo terrorist attack was killed: first, a much bigger attack was avoided (as discussed later in this article), and second, Hezbollah probably knew what was about to happen and may have approved the operation, if not executed it firsthand. The latter realization is quite alarming because it means that Hezbollah’s leaders were willing to take a risk of real escalation with Israel, even if they perceived that risk to be low. As discussed in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch, the attack is another glaring sign that Hezbollah has changed the rules of the game. Israeli decisionmakers must therefore re-clarify their redlines—with force if necessary.
Hezbollah’s Role in the Attack
So far, not many details have been published regarding the attack or the perpetrator identity’s. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel Security Agency have released some information on the weapon used (a claymore-like explosive) and the terrorist’s general route, but nothing on his identity. Yet most fingers are pointing in Hezbollah’s direction given the group’s strong security control over south Lebanon, especially along the border with Israel.
True, Hezbollah is not the only actor that might be involved in such a cross-border attack. For example, Hamas has entrenched itself in the Lebanese arena in recent years, building military capabilities and recruiting local fighters to its ranks. Another possible culprit is Iran, which is constantly trying to find more ways to execute attacks against Israel from the north. But even if Hamas, Iran, or other actors were involved, they would not have been able to execute such an operation without Hezbollah’s approval.
Indeed, the circumstances of the Megiddo attack reminded many in Israel of another terrorist operation that Hezbollah executed in 2002, when it sent two Palestinian terrorists across the northern border to kill Israelis near the Matzuva kibbutz. At the time, the group likely hoped that using Palestinian operatives might obscure its involvement in the attack. Today, however, Hezbollah can hardly have expected to cover its tracks given that the terrorist crossed its heavily guarded border while carrying advanced explosives, and used a ladder to get over Israel’s security barrier—the same tactic used by the 2002 attackers.
Israel’s Response Options
Hezbollah’s risk analysis was no doubt shaped by what is going on inside Israel today, from growing social rifts to a heavily protested government plan for judicial overhaul. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is considered to be a close watcher and decent analyst of Israeli politics, so he may have believed that now was a good time to move the goalposts and raise a challenge on the security front.
For Israel, maintaining calm on the northern border has been a top priority in recent years. Officials did not want a flare-up with Hezbollah, so they limited many of the IDF’s activities in Lebanon, especially against Hezbollah targets. Even when the group showed that it was willing to test Israeli red lines—most notably last July when it sent drones toward the Karish gas field, a strategically important site—Israel downed the aircraft but did not take further steps that might escalate the situation (e.g., targeting Hezbollah’s drone bases in Lebanon).
Today, however, Israel cannot stop at pointing fingers and issuing harsh statements. The Megiddo attack might have caused much more damage given the additional explosives and other weapons the terrorist was carrying; even the lone device detonated at Megiddo could have easily been used to destroy a larger target such as a bus. Moreover, Hezbollah’s apparent effort to test (or shift) Jerusalem’s redlines on a dangerous frontier needs to be answered. If Nasrallah has misjudged Israel, then it is incumbent on Jerusalem to make this clear, ideally via the following main steps:
Declassify as much intelligence as possible without risking sensitive sources, publishing all evidence regarding Hezbollah’s involvement in the attack and identifying all individuals who had a hand in planning and executing it. At the very least, this would signal to these individuals that they are on Israel’s radar and may be attacked at the first possible opportunity, regardless of their affiliations.
Reach out to any possible interlocutor with Hezbollah, conveying the message that further attempts to change the rules of the game are unacceptable and will be met with overwhelming force. This message should be delivered to the Lebanese government as well, since the IDF response to continued attacks against Israel would damage the Lebanese state, not just Hezbollah. Israel can pass this message via the various French or regional officials who are in touch with Beirut and elements of Hezbollah.
Last and most important, prepare for escalation. Unfortunately, the days of keeping the north quiet at any cost have passed, especially if Hezbollah no longer believes Israel is willing to respond forcefully. The last time the organization perceived Israel to be weak was in 2006, and its resultant cross-border operations (e.g., kidnapping Israeli soldiers) led to a war that proved to be devastating, mostly to Lebanon. If Hezbollah tries to challenge Israel again, Israel should be ready to take strong action such as targeting the group’s commanders and headquarters in Lebanon—even if this runs the risk of intense fire exchanges or war. Relevant preparations for this option should include increased monitoring of Hezbollah officials—overtly and covertly—and perhaps even the transfer of some military units to the north. Hezbollah needs to know that Israel is no longer shying away from conflict, since this may be the only way of forcing the group to return to the old, accepted rules of the game and step down from the precipice of a war that it does not appear to want either.
Yes, Israel is currently focused on how to deal with an assortment of weighty problems at home. But it is precisely because of this domestic instability that signaling adversaries like Hezbollah is so important. By sending the right message, Israel can show that it is still a formidable force and should not be tested during this time.
*Nadav Pollak is a lecturer at Reichman University and a former Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Fellow at The Washington Institute.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 22-23/2023
Syria says Israel attacked Aleppo airport, no casualties
Associated Press
/Wednesday, 22 March, 2023
An Israeli airstrike early Wednesday targeted the international airport of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, causing material damage in the second attack on the facility this month, state media report. State news agency SANA, quoting an unnamed military official, did not mention if the strike caused any deaths or injuries. It said warplanes fired the missiles toward Aleppo, Syria's largest city and once commercial center, while flying over the Mediterranean. The airport has been one of the main channels for the flow of aid into the country after the Feb. 6 earthquake hit Turkey and Syria, killing over 50,000 people, including more than 6,000 in Syria. On March 7, an Israeli airstrike put the airport out of service for several days and flights were rerouted to two other airports in the war-torn country until the damage was fixed. Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets inside government-controlled parts of Syria in recent years, including attacks on the Damascus and Aleppo airports, but it rarely acknowledges or discusses the operations. Israel has acknowledged, however, that it targets bases of Iran-allied militant groups, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, which has sent thousands of fighters to support Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces. Israel has targeted airports and seaports in the government-held parts of Syria in an apparent attempt to prevent arms shipments from Iran to militant groups backed by Tehran, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.

UN Secretary-General urges ‘peace, mutual respect, solidarity’, in message marking beginning of Ramadan
NNA
/Wednesday, 22 March, 2023
Following is the text of UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ video message for the beginning of Ramadan, on 22 March: "I send my warmest wishes as Muslims around the world begin observing the holy month of Ramadan. This is a moment of reflection and learning. A time to come together in a spirit of understanding and compassion, bound by our common humanity. That is also the mission of the United Nations — to foster dialogue, unity and peace. In these challenging times, my thoughts are with those facing conflict, displacement and suffering. I join everyone observing Ramadan to call for peace, mutual respect and solidarity. Let us take inspiration from this holy month and build a more just and equitable world for all. Ramadan Kareem."

Israeli leader halts bill against Christian proselytizing
JERUSALEM (AP)/Wed, March 22, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday said he would prevent the passage of a proposal by a powerful ally in his governing coalition to punish Christian proselytizing with jail time. The proposal had raised an uproar with evangelical Christians — one of Israel’s strongest and most influential supporters in the United States. The bill was introduced in January by a pair of ultra-Orthodox Jewish lawmakers, including Moshe Gafni, who heads the parliament’s Finance Committee. It says soliciting someone to convert their faith should be punishable by one year in prison and solicitation to convert a minor would be punishable with a two-year sentence. “Recently, the attempts of missionary groups, mainly Christians, to solicit conversion of religion have increased,” it said. The bill was never advanced, but it drew widespread attention in the American evangelical world this week after All Israel News, an evangelical news site, reported on it. On Wednesday, Netanyahu announced on Twitter: “We will not advance any law against the Christian community. ”Gafni said he had introduced the bill as a procedural matter, as he has done in the past, and there were no plans to advance it.
Evangelical Christians, particularly in the United States, are among the strongest backers of Israel, viewing it as the fulfillment of biblical prophecy, with some seeing it as the harbinger of a second coming of Jesus Christ and the end of days.
Israel has long welcomed evangelicals’ political and financial support, and it has largely shrugged off concerns about any hidden religious agenda. But most Jews view any effort to convert them to Christianity as deeply offensive, a legacy of centuries of persecution and forced conversion at the hands of Christian rulers. In part, because of those sensitivities, evangelical Christians rarely target Jews. Joel Rosenberg, editor in chief of All Israel News, welcomed Netanyahu’s announcement, which comes at a time of domestic turmoil in Israel over his plan to overhaul the country's legal system and rising tensions with the Biden administration over West Bank settlement activities. “Netanyahu is a longtime and proven friend to the global Christian community and his action today — amidst all the other issues on his plate — is further proof,” Rosenberg said.

Israeli army admits to covert influence campaign in Gaza war
JERUSALEM (AP)/Wed, March 22, 2023
Days into Israel’s devastating war with Gaza militants in 2021, the Israeli army began deploying keyboard warriors to a second front: a covert social media operation to praise the military’s bombing campaign in the coastal enclave. The Israeli military acknowledged Wednesday that it made a “mistake” in launching the secretive influence campaign on social media in an effort to improve the Israeli public’s view of Israel’s performance in the conflict. The online campaign, which failed to gain traction, was one of several contentious steps taken by the Israeli military in the bloody 11-day war. The fighting killed over 260 Palestinians and 13 Israelis as the military bombed the Hamas-ruled territory and Palestinian militants launched rockets at Israel. Israel’s Haaretz daily first exposed the social media operation on Wednesday, reporting that the army employed fake accounts to conceal the campaign’s origin and engage audiences on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok. Experts say that although the Israeli military has frequently employed inauthentic social media accounts to gather intelligence on Arab states and on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, this marks the first known time that a military influence campaign has targeted Israeli citizens. Uri Kol, a digital campaign expert, said the revelation could hint that the army has employed the tactic secretively against Israelis before. “With the military's tight censorship laws, the army always has the last word in what gets published and what doesn’t,” he said. “What we see here is a tiny facet of an online manipulation campaign that we haven’t ever seen before.”
The accounts posted and amplified footage and images of destruction in Gaza with the Hebrew hashtag “Gaza Regrets” — boasting about the strength of Israel’s military in a bid to counter viral images showing salvos of Palestinian rockets bombarding Tel Aviv. The accounts targeted right-wing Israelis, tagging popular conservative TV hosts and politicians like current National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and posting in groups of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters with the aim of spreading the message to sympathetic audiences. Popular posts with the Gaza Regrets hashtag drew bellicose comments from Israelis, like “Why are buildings still standing in Gaza?" “It shows the army's frame of mind that it wants to reassure young people and get them pumped up for war,” Kol said.
The Israeli military conceded that it also coordinated the campaign with real social media influencers, providing them with images and hashtags to talk up the military’s achievements and showcase the damage it inflicted on Gaza.
But all the army’s efforts came to naught. The hashtag failed to leverage audiences, garnering few if any likes and shares, Haaretz reported. Successful online influence campaigns using false identities take years and hundreds of thousands of dollars to gain followers' trust, experts say. In a statement, the Israeli military admitted that it used “a limited number” of fake accounts over the course of a day “in order to increase exposure." “In retrospect, it was found that the use of these accounts was a mistake,” the military said, saying it has not employed the tactic since the war. It claimed it approached social media influencers who joined the operation in an official capacity as the military’s spokesperson’s unit. The Israeli military “is committed to the truth and adheres to reliable and accurate reports as much as possible," it added.
The army spokesman's office has long played a key role in defending Israel’s military actions in the international court of opinion. But its relationship with the media has been strained at times, and its tactics have come under criticism, including during the 2021 war, when it was accused of circulating misleading reports among foreign journalists. Those reports suggested that a ground invasion was under way in an attempt to lure Hamas militants into a deadly trap. Some reporters were told outright an invasion had begun. The military blamed the incident on “internal miscommunication.” Israel’s conduct in the war further inflamed tensions and angered international media when an Israeli airstrike leveled a high-rise building that housed The Associated Press and Al Jazeera offices in Gaza after giving those inside an hour to evacuate. The military claimed the building housed Hamas militant infrastructure but has provided no evidence. Israel’s handling of the shooting death last year of a veteran Al Jazeera journalist, Shireen Abu Akleh, became the latest flash point in relations between the military and reporters. After initially suggesting she might have been killed by a Palestinian gunman, the Israeli military later admitted an Israeli soldier likely shot her and absolved itself of responsibility. The military portrayed the shooting as a mistake during a firefight with Palestinian militants, without offering evidence.
The equivocal conclusion drew sharp condemnation from Palestinians and press freedom groups, who noted that Abu Akleh was clearly identified as a reporter and the area appeared to be quiet at the time.

Ecumenical patriarch: Russian Church shares blame for 'crimes' in Ukraine
Andrius Sytas/VILNIUS (Reuters)/Wed, March 22, 2023
The spiritual head of the world's Orthodox Christians said on Wednesday that Russia's powerful Orthodox Church shared responsibility for the conflict in Ukraine but that he stood ready to help in Russia's postwar "spiritual regeneration". Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew's comments are a rebuke for Russian Patriarch Kirill, whose full-throated blessing for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has splintered the worldwide Orthodox Church. Bartholomew, who in 2019 infuriated Moscow by recognising the newly established Orthodox Church of Ukraine, said Russian authorities were using the Church as an "instrument for their strategic objectives"."The church and the state leadership in Russia cooperated in the crime of aggression and shared the responsibility for the resulting crimes, like the shocking abduction of the Ukrainian children," he told a conference held in Lithuania's parliament. Last week, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. Russia says children were moved from Ukraine for their own safety. It denies committing rights abuses in Ukraine. "Our interreligious dialogue has to focus on ways to resist and neutralize the capacity of the leadership of the Moscow Patriarchate to undermine unity and to theologically legitimize criminal behaviour," Bartholomew said. The Russian Orthodox Church had no immediate comment.
'MOTHER CHURCH'
The Ecumenical Patriarch is based in Istanbul and is viewed as "first among equals" in the Orthodox Church, which has some 260 million followers worldwide, around 100 million of them in Russia. "The mother church of Constantinople is ready to assist its children in Ukraine and Russia once again, as it has done on multiple occasions in the past", he said. The Church still uses the ancient Greek name of Constantinople for Istanbul. "It is our common Christian duty to use forces of dialogue to bring back our Russian brothers and sisters to our community of shared values," he said, stressing the need for "spiritual regeneration" in both Russia and Ukraine. Putin, strongly backed by Patriarch Kirill, casts Moscow's invasion of Ukraine as a defensive pushback against what they see as an aggressive and decadent West that is bent on destroying Russia and its culture. Ukraine says Russia is waging an unprovoked war of aggression aimed at seizing land and crushing its independence.

Days after Putin's dead-of-night trip to a city far from the front, Zelenskyy visited the heart of the bloodiest fighting in Ukraine

John Haltiwanger,Chris Panella/Business Insider/March 22, 2023
Days after Putin's dead-of-night trip in Ukraine, Zelenskyy visited troops near the front lines. Days after Russian President Vladimir Putin's surprise trip to the occupied city of Mariupol, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops in Bakhmut — currently the heart of the bloodiest fighting in the war.
Putin's dead-of-night trip occurred this past weekend. State media followed the Russian President meeting with residents who told him the occupied, war-torn Ukrainian city is a "little piece of paradise." He drove along city streets, saw inside new apartment complex, and visited a children's playground and renovated theater. Daylight tells a different story of Mariupol, though. None of the video footage showed the widespread ruin across the city. Russia's invasion destroyed vast areas of buildings and infrastructure, leaving tens of thousands dead, the city's former mayor told the Associated Press. But for what seemed like a carefully constructed PR trip for Putin, the visit had one media snafu. The Kremlin shared an official video of Putin chatting with residents in front of a new apartment building, but state media was caught editing the video to remove a heckler's comments from the background.
In the original video, Putin meets with local residents near a new apartment complex in the dead of night. During the conversation, a woman can be heard interrupting Putin and the residents, yelling "It's not real! It's all for show!"
Ukrainian officials condemned the trip, which occurred just two days after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin's arrest, comparing it to a murderer returning to the scene of a crime. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with troops near the front lines of Bakhmut.Ukrainian
Zelenskyy took a very different trip on Wednesday, visiting soldiers fighting on the front lines in Bakhmut. Photos show the Ukrainian President shaking hands with soldiers, taking selfies, and awarding troops. "I am honored to be here today," he said, according to BBC, "in the east of our country, in Donbas, and to award our heroes, to thank you, to shake your hands." Zelenskyy's own PR trip comes as he is pushing for Western nations to give more weapons, military equipment, and aid to Ukraine as it fights off Russia's invasion.The region has seen some of the bloodiest fighting in the war, with the past few weeks featuring staggering casualties for both sides. Experts are divided on the strategic importance to either side, but Ukraine's forces refuse to give up on Bakhmut. Zelenskyy has repeatedly vowed not to retreat from Bakhmut, underscoring that his top military advisors have called for reinforcing the position of Ukrainian forces in the city in order to inflict maximum damage on Russian forces in the area. Russia has suffered heavy losses in Bakhmut, which has become the longest battle in the war so far. An intelligence assessment released by the British Ministry of Defense last week suggested that Russia's "combat power" was depleted to such an extent that "even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable."That said, top military analysts have questioned the logic of Ukraine continuing to dedicate valuable resources and personnel to the battle for Bakhmut, warning that this could hurt Kyiv's ability to launch another counteroffensive and regain territory from the Russian occupiers."Although the attrition ratio in Bakhmut has been advantageous for the duration of the battle, the ratio is much less favorable now with [Russian] forces holding high ground on the city's flanks. Much of Russia's losses are prisoners of less military value than Ukrainian soldiers," Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said on Twitter earlier this week. "There is a risk that, by committing the necessary forces to continue holding Bakhmut (where its attrition ratio isn't favorable), Ukraine will sap some of the forces available for its strategically more important spring offensive," Lee, a former US Marine infantry officer, went on to say. But Lee also underscored that the issue isn't "black and white," and it's possible "Russia may overextend itself trying to take the city and leave itself vulnerable to counterattack."

Russia Wants a Committed Fossil Fuel Relationship. China Has Cold Feet
Ciara Nugent/TimeTime/Wed, March 22, 2023
There was one awkward moment at this week’s closely-watched summit between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The Russian and Chinese presidents, who have met 40 times in the last decade, exchanged plenty of warm words. Xi reassured Putin of his continuing support for Russia’s stance on Ukraine, and the pair signed a dozen collaboration agreements aimed at building a “multipolar world” with a diminished West. But on Tuesday, after Putin boasted that the countries had “practically” finalized a deal for a major natural gas pipeline, Xi left him hanging.
The Power of Siberia 2 is a planned pipeline that, by 2030, could carry up to 98 billion cubic meters of natural gas from northeastern Russia into China via Mongolia. That’s enough to supply a quarter of China’s current gas needs. Moscow considers the project a crucial part of its strategy for safeguarding the Russian fossil fuel industry in a global market roiled by the energy transition and Putin’s warmongering. The summit’s joint statement, however, included only an anemic pledge to “make efforts to advance work on studying and agreeing” the project.
The rebuff matters to Russia, and to the climate. Russia relies on fossil fuels for 66% of its exports and 45% of its federal budget. The war has led Moscow to cut off natural gas supplies to the E.U. for political reasons; at the same time, the E.U. has enacted sanctions on the import of Russian oil. As a result, Russia’s oil and gas revenues have cratered in the short term. By February, they were only half of what they were a year earlier. Meanwhile, the war has also hastened the long-term structural decline of those industries, according to The International Energy Agency. With nations accelerating renewables rollouts in the name of energy security, demand for fossil fuels is now expected to peak within five years. For climate advocates, that’s a win. For Russia, which has been dragging its feet on diversifying its economy, it’s a very black cloud on the horizon.
China could chase that clouds away. The country has already helped Russia recoup some of its losses by boosting its spend on Russian oil, coal, and natural gas from $52.1 billion in 2021 to $81.3 billion in 2022. China saved an estimated $5 billion in discounts negotiated on the back of the E.U. sanctions, per Reuters. If approved, the Power of Siberia 2 would help Russia permanently reorient its gas industry to the east, compensating for the now-stranded fields and pipelines that were built to serve Europe. Some fossil fuel opponents fear that such an alliance between the world’s two largest emitters would cancel out the progress that the E.U. has made in its moves towards a greener economy as a result of the war. But China doesn’t seem willing to commit yet, says Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, focusing on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics. “Chinese refiners are happy to buy Russian oil on the cheap in one-off transactions,” she says. “But we have not seen China do anything that sort of permanently deepens their ties to Russia in a way that might be trickier to reverse.” Downs says Chinese companies are likely wary of signing major deals with a country in the midst of a messy military conflict. China may also be carefully weighing the energy dependence risk of making Russia such a major supplier. (The joint capacity of both Power of Siberia pipelines would be almost as much as the total amount of natural gas China currently imports from the rest of the world.) Others believe China is simply holding out for better financial terms. Xi may yet give Putin what he wants. China, which imports almost three quarters of its oil and almost half its natural gas, considers its resource-rich neighbor as vital to national energy security. And, though China’s rollout of renewable energy is happening at a shocking pace, it will be decades before its economy can run off that clean domestic infrastructure alone. For now though, faced with the uncertainty engulfing Russia’s future, Putin will have to put on a brave face.

Russia’s Shadow Army Threatens to Dump Dead Bodies on ‘Dirtbag’ Officials
Allison Quinn/The Daily Beast/March 22, 2023
When the mayor of a small town in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai told the notorious Wagner Group over the weekend that he didn’t want the area to become the new dumping ground for dead mercenaries, he apparently thought he had a say in the matter. He didn’t. And Yevgeny Prigozhin, the cutthroat founder of the group, would soon make that frighteningly clear—with threats to dump dead bodies on his doorstep instead. Prigozhin’s fighters backed their boss up, releasing a video of themselves armed to the teeth in the Donbas and threatening to come home to kill.
“You just wait, degenerates, for us to have to come and deal with you. Because you fuckers are doing more harm than the Ukrainian army, than the Nazis. Because you are the Nazis, the fucking administration of Goryachy Klyuch,” one of the masked fighters warned. In perhaps the starkest illustration yet of Prigozhin’s growing power, the burial went ahead just as he’d wanted, under the barrel of guns wielded by more masked Wagner fighters.
But hundreds of local pensioners, veterans, and out-of-towners also attended the burial of eight Wagner recruits killed fighting in Ukraine. Some of them apparently heeded Prigozhin’s public call to pay their respects and defy local authorities.
“The administration of Goryachy Klyuch forbid the burial of our Wagner fighters at the cemetery in Bakinskaya. Tomorrow, at 10 a.m. the funeral will be held for our fighters. Everyone wanting to say goodbye to them, I invite you to the cemetery,” Prigozhin fumed in an audio message released on the eve of the planned burial.Despite large crowds showing up, the New Tab reported that no one in attendance actually knew the dead fighters, four of whom had been serving prison time when they were swept up by Wagner to join the war.
“If today we behave in such a way that there is no place to bury them, then tomorrow they will come to us,” one unnamed pensioner was quoted telling the New Tab at the funeral. Prigozhin emerged victorious from the standoff with local authorities, boasting in a pre-recorded message played at the funeral that “we forced those dirtbags to hide out in their offices.”And the next day, he announced that he’d personally been assured by the region’s governor that no one would stand in his way again.
In his telling, the confrontation was not part of a power grab by a mercenary group accused of war crimes on multiple continents, but a noble example of the underdogs in society taking a stand against the powers that be in a simmering class war.
“The war has exacerbated the colossal divide in society,” he said, telling supporters that government officials are only interested in building an “ideal world” for themselves and the rest of the elite, in which there’s “no place for ordinary guys” like members of Wagner. Just a few months earlier, he proudly told inmates locked up at a penal colony in the Tyumen region that those same “ordinary guys” previously “chopped off the ears of negroes in the jungle” but were now “defending the borders of our motherland,” according to a new report from Discours.
“We are a paramilitary organized crime group, with its own internal code, which sometimes does not comply with the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation,” he was quoted saying by an inmate. Meanwhile, family members of Wagner fighters killed in Ukraine say the group has not even bothered to inform them where their loved ones were buried—leaving it up to the families to dig up their dead and rebury them. Vitaly Botanovsky, an activist in the Krasnodar Krai, told iStories he’d been approached by at least 25 people in recent days who had not been informed their dead relatives were buried by Wagner at the cemetery in Bakinskaya. “We didn’t know that he died,” one woman told iStories of her father. “He was serving time at the IK-9 penal colony in Kaliningrad, he went to Ukraine in secret from us.”Several families are now reportedly working to rebury their relatives.
While Wagner’s trademark prison-recruitment scheme has been taken over by the Russian Defense Ministry, the next few weeks will be a test for the mercenary group, as they stand to lose thousands of fighters recruited from prisons last fall whose six-month contracts are due to expire. If those recruits opt out of renewing their contracts, they will be released to return home.

Cursing Putin, top Ukrainian officials said peace talks with him are 'impossible' and that 'such evil' can only be crushed by force
John Haltiwanger/Business Insider/Wed, March 22, 2023
Ukraine's top diplomat told Politico all Putin wants is more war and more dead Ukrainians. Top Ukrainian officials completely rejected the prospect of holding peace talks if Russian President Vladimir Putin is sitting at the negotiation table, particularly after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian leader over allegations of involvement in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children. "We knew long before the ICC arrest warrant that talking to Putin made no sense. Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council adopted a legal resolution on September 30 of last year declaring that any negotiations with Vladimir Putin were impossible in response to Russia's attempted annexation of additional Ukrainian territories," Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's top diplomat, said in a new interview with Politico. Kuleba emphasized that Ukraine was not opposed to diplomacy or talks to end the war but underscored that it would be "impossible" to hold negotiations with Putin — particularly following the Russian leader's illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories. "Putin has ignored everything; all he wants is more war, more Ukrainian children stolen, more Ukrainians murdered, and more Ukrainian land was taken. How does one deal with such evil? One crushes it by force," Kuleba said. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov expressed similar sentiments and made the case that Putin should also be put on trial for the downing of the the Malaysian airliner MH17 back in 2014.
Last month, international investigators said there were "strong indications" Putin approved supplying Kremlin-backed separatists with the missile that was used to bring the plane down over eastern Ukraine — killing 298 people in the process. But the investigators also said there was no evidence that Putin ordered the plane to be shot down."It's 2023 and this motherfucker still bears no responsibility. Now we have to talk to him after he killed 500 of our own children? What is the world we live in?" Danilov said to Politico. Russia and Ukraine are locked in a grinding war of attrition, and both have suffered heavy casualties over more than a year of fighting. The war is largely stalemated at this point, with the heaviest fighting occuring in the eastern Donbas region. Putin hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Moscow this week, and the two released a joint statement endorsing "peace talks" for the war. China issued a peace plan for Ukraine last month. The plan, which has been met with deep skepticism in the West, does not call for Russia to withdraw troops from Ukrainian territories. And as Putin and Xi discussed "peace," Russia launched fresh missile and drone attacks in Ukraine. "Every time someone tries to hear the word 'peace' in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a tweet on Wednesday. Zelenskyy went on to say that the success of Ukrainian forces "on the land, in the sky and at sea really brings peace closer."

Khamenei Blames Protests on West, Refuses Changing Constitution
London, Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 March, 2023
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Tuesday blamed the US and its European allies for stoking popular protests that rocked Iran for months. In his Nowruz New Year message to the nation, Khamenei shut down calls for change at home, stressing that the economy is the most important issue facing the country. He also refused that Tehran be a party to the Ukrainian war. While he welcomed the development of diplomatic relations in Asia, he left the door open to relations with the Europeans, on the condition that they avoid "blind dependence" on US policy. The Iranian leader pushed his version of the story behind the protests that swept across the country after the death of the young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, last September, and accused the US of fueling protests. Furthermore, Khamenei emphasized the need for informed public opinion in Iran, adding “if public opinion does not welcome an idea, it will not be implemented in practice.”“The goal of the enemy is to eliminate the country and establishment’s points of strength and to get issues that remind the people of the Revolution, pure and revolutionary Islam fade into oblivion,” Khamenei noted. Khamenei, according to state media, underlined that the ultimate goal of the apparently pro-change and transformation statements by the enemy is to turn Islamic democracy into a one-man and submissive government or one that is superficially democratic but is submissive to the West in practice. “Whoever talks at home about changing the constitution is basically repeating what the enemies say,” said Khamenei, in a thinly veiled hint at the call for a constitutional referendum proposed by reformist leader, Mir-Hossein Mousavi. “If we are not vigilant, we could harm our strengths in the name of change,” Khamenei warned.

China, Japan leaders end visits to warring capitals

Associated Press/March 22/2023
Ukraine faced more Russian drone attacks Wednesday that killed at least three people shortly after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida left Kyiv. Kishida was back in Poland Wednesday morning, according to Japan's Kyodo News, and is expected to return to Japan Thursday.Kishida's surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital stole some of the attention from Chinese leader Xi Jinping's trip to Moscow where he promoted Beijing's peace proposal for Ukraine, which Western nations have already dismissed. Xi left Moscow early Wednesday. Early Wednesday, Ukraine faced a new series of Russian drone attacks, which killed at least three people and damaged some infrastructure across the country. The Rival visits by Xi and Kishida, about 800 kilometers (500 miles) apart, highlighted how countries are lining up behind Moscow or Kyiv during the nearly 13-month-old war. Kishida, who will chair the Group of Seven summit in May, became the group's last member to visit Ukraine and meet President Volodymyr Zelensky, after paying tribute to those killed in Bucha, a town that became a symbol of Russian atrocities against civilians. Xi's visit gave a strong political boost to Russian President Vladimir Putin just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian leader on charges of alleged involvement in abductions of thousands of children from Ukraine. In a joint statement, Russia and China emphasized the need to "respect legitimate security concerns of all countries" to settle the conflict, echoing Moscow's argument that it sent in troops to prevent the U.S. and its NATO allies from turning the country into an anti-Russian bulwark. Kishida called Russia's invasion a "disgrace that undermines the foundations of the international legal order" and pledged to "continue to support Ukraine until peace is back on the beautiful Ukrainian lands."
XI, PUTIN BLAME NATO
The Russia-China front against the West was a prominent theme of Xi's visit. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused NATO of seeking to become the world's dominant military force. "That is why we are expanding our cooperation with China, including in the security sphere," he said.
After the talks, Putin and Xi issued joint declarations pledging to further bolster their "strategic cooperation," develop cooperation in energy, high-tech industries and other spheres and expand the use of their currencies in mutual trade to reduce dependence on the West.They said they would develop military cooperation and conduct more joint sea and air patrols, but there was no mention of Chinese weapon supplies to Russia, a prospect that the U.S. and other Western allies feared. Xi and Putin announced no major progress toward implementing the Chinese peace deal, although the Russian leader said it could be a basis for ending the fighting when the West is ready. U.S. officials have said any peace plan coming from the Putin-Xi meeting would be unacceptable because a cease-fire would only ratify Moscow's territorial conquests and give Russia time to plan for a renewed offensive. Putin is keen to show he has a heavyweight ally and market for Russian energy products under Western sanctions. He and Xi signed agreements on economic cooperation, noting Russian-Chinese trade rose by 30% last year to $185 billion and is expected to top $200 billion this year. Russia stands "ready to meet the Chinese economy's growing demand for energy resources" by boosting deliveries of oil and gas, he said, while listing other areas of cooperation, including aircraft and shipbuilding industries and other high-tech sectors. Further contacts are planned. Xi said he invited Putin to China this year to discuss a regional initiative that seeks to extend Beijing's influence through economic cooperation. After meeting Kishida, Zelenskyy told reporters his team had sent his own peace formula to China but hasn't heard back, adding that there were "some signals, but nothing concrete about the possibility of a dialogue."
KISHIDA CONDEMNS RUSSIAN "CRUELTY"
Hours before Xi and Putin dined at a state dinner in glittering Kremlin opulence, Kishida laid flowers at a church in Bucha for the town's victims. "Upon this visit to Bucha, I feel a strong resentment against cruelty," Kishida said. "I would like to represent the people in Japan, and express my deepest condolences to those who lost their loved ones, were injured as a result of this cruel act." Japan's top government spokesman said Wednesday that Kishida's visit to Ukraine was "very meaningful" for Japan's future support for that country, while taking a leadership role as president of the Group of Seven nations in responding to the issue. "Through Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Ukraine, Japan was able to show not only to other members of the G-7 but also the international society including the Global South (nations) its determination to defend the rules-based international society," he said. Matsuno noted that the China-Russia summit took place almost at the same time as Kishida's visit to Ukraine, and said "President Xi (Jinping)'s visit to Russia only underscored the unwavering ties between China and Russia despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel noted the "two very different European-Pacific partnerships" that unfolded Tuesday."Kishida stands with freedom, and Xi stands with a war criminal," Emanuel tweeted, referring to Friday's decision by the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Putin, saying it wanted to put him on trial for the abductions of thousands of children from Ukraine.
DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE
The Ukrainian military's General Staff said that Russia struck Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed exploding drones. It said air defenses downed 16 of the 21 drones launched by Russia. The Kyiv military administration said that eight of the drones were downed near the Ukrainian capital. A high school and two dormitories were partially destroyed in an overnight drone attack in the city of Rzhyshchiv, in Ukraine's north-central Kyiv province, local officials said Wednesday morning. "As of 7 a.m., three people were killed, two people were wounded and one person was rescued. There are probably four people under the rubble," the Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported. In neighboring Zhytomyr province exploding drones damaged infrastructure facilities, according to regional Gov. Vitalii Bunechko. He said Ukrainian air defenses shot down three drones. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Moscow-appointed head of the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, said the Russian military has fended off a drone attack on the main harbor early Wednesday. Razvozhayev said the Russian navy destroyed three unmanned sea drones that attempted to attack Sevastopol that serves as the main base for Russia's Black Sea Fleet. He said that Russian warships weren't damaged in the attack, but added that several civilian facilities were slightly damaged when the drones were hit and exploded, shattering windows in several buildings near the harbor. He said there were no injuries. Ukrainian officials didn't claim responsibility for the attacks.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 22-23/2023
What’s in the Saudi Iranian Beijing Deal?
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Insight/March 22/2023
Other than promising not to intervene in each other’s affairs and to restore diplomatic ties, Saudi Arabia and Iran did not agree to much in the deal that they signed in Beijing earlier this month. But judging by officials’ statements and editorials in the Saudi and Iranian press, both sides seem to inadvertently agree on one thing: The deal minimizes America’s role in the Gulf region. To Iranians, replacing America with China is the result of an imagined Iranian victory over the U.S. To Saudis, a smaller American footprint is what Washington wants. But while Riyadh has not given up on Washington yet, should America insist on folding, Saudi Arabia has started experimenting with other options.
While details about the deal remain scant, a few hints here and there can shed some light. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazimi, who sponsored and moderated the first of the five Saudi-Iranian dialogue sessions that led to the Beijing deal, said that Iran “admitted committing errors, including the [attack on the] Saudi Embassy in Tehran” in January 2016. Al-Kazimi added that Saudi-Iranian discussions were comprehensive and included Yemen, the Iranian-sponsored Yemeni militia known as the Houthis, and Lebanon, which is dominated by the pro-Iran Hezbollah militia.
Despite their comprehensive discussions, Riyadh and Tehran “did not manage to settle all outstanding disagreements between them,” according to Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan, who said that the deal established that disagreements can only be solved through dialogue and that the “purpose of the trilateral Saudi-Iranian-Chinese statement is to prioritize [economic] development over [military] hegemony.”
Along the same lines, Saudi veteran columnist Abdul-Rahman al-Rashed wrote that Saudi Arabia is now focused on its economic and national interests. “China imports two million barrels [of oil] from Saudi Arabia every day, and that will increase, while America imports only 300 thousand barrels a day, and that will decrease.” Rashed added that “America imports over 50 percent of its energy needs from Canada,” and “the U.S. can live without Saudi oil, while China cannot.”
As America becomes less dependent on Gulf oil, it will feel less compelled to offer Gulf countries security, whereas while China grows more reliant on this oil, it will be in China’s interest to defend “a Saudi tanker or an oil facility,” to put it in Rashed’s words.
The Saudi writer concluded that “the Beijing deal should be happy news for Washington, which has been treating repeated Gulf countries’ demands for [defense] partnership with America, or security guarantees against Iranian threats, as a burden that America is not enthusiastic to handle.”
Yet despite Riyadh presumably inching closer to Beijing and further away from Washington, Saudi Arabia has yet to grant China its demand to make Saudi oil sales to China denominated in the Chinese yuan, a step that would boost the global status of the Chinese currency and undermine the U.S. dollar.
Iran, too, saw the deal as one where Saudi Arabia gets closer to China. By doing so, Saudi would be helping defeat and eject America from the Gulf. The deal is “the end of America’s hegemony in the region,” said Rahim Safawi, the former chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and now a top aide to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“The post-America era has started in the Gulf with the deal between Tehran and Riyadh,” Safawi said, adding that “it seems that China and Russia will help Saudi Arabia become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.”
In 2021, Iran bet its economy on China by signing a 25-year cooperation agreement, which gave Beijing immense leverage over Tehran. Should Iran or its militias burn the Saudi embassy in Tehran, like in 2016, or strike the Saudi Abqaiq oil facility, like in 2019, Riyadh can take it up with China, whose signature is on the deal. Or at least that’s how most Saudi pundits understood the deal.
For over a decade now, Saudi Arabia has been trying to convince America to maintain the Cold War front against Iran, Russia, and China. Washington, however, has blamed the Saudis for their seemingly hawkish foreign policy and insisted that they should de-escalate and share the region with Iran. Riyadh has finally played along and took the region back to pre-2016, when it had diplomatic relations with Tehran. Yet Saudi Arabia has not given up on America or switched sides, as Iranians seem to have understood – or are hyping up — with the Beijing deal.
By flirting with China, Saudi Arabia might be signaling that if Washington wants to give up on its 78-year-old alliance, Riyadh is ready to try other options, such as China. Before the Saudis went to Beijing, congressional voices dared them to do so and called on the White House to “call the bluff of the Bahrainis, Emiratis, or Saudis” by terminating the Carter Doctrine, which commits the U.S. to Gulf security.
Now we know that if America does “call the bluff” and end its security commitments to Riyadh, the Saudis might be visiting Beijing more often, and their future visits might not be limited to restoring ties with Iran.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Follow Hussain on Twitter @hahussain. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD.

A New Order in the Middle East?/Iran and Saudi Arabia’s Rapprochement Could Transform the Region

Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr/Foreign Affairs/March 22, 2023
On March 6, 2023, representatives from Iran and Saudi Arabia met in Beijing for discussions brokered by China. Four days later, Riyadh and Tehran announced that they had decided to normalize relations. This landmark agreement has the potential to transform the Middle East by realigning its major powers, replacing the current Arab-Iranian divide with a complex web of relationships, and weaving the region into China’s global ambitions. For Beijing, the announcement was a great leap forward in its rivalry with Washington.
It was not supposed to be this way. It was the United States that had encouraged Iran and Saudi Arabia to start discussions, in 2021, in an effort to reduce tensions between the Gulf rivals, advance nuclear talks, and bring an end to the conflict in Yemen. Tehran and Riyadh held five rounds of direct talks, and informal conversations continued thereafter. Then, during his visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden urged the Gulf Cooperation Council—an intergovernmental union of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—to join with Israel to contain Iran. But the Saudi government turned to China instead, viewing President Xi Jinping as a better mediator with Tehran. Involving China, the Saudis believed, was the surest guarantee that a deal with Iran would last, since Tehran would be unlikely to risk jeopardizing its relations with Beijing by violating such a deal. Xi discussed the issue with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his visit to Riyadh in December 2022 and then met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Beijing in February 2023. Intense discussions between Iran and Saudi Arabia followed, during which the two sides agreed to bury the hatchet and normalize relations. For both countries, Xi’s personal intervention was critical. Both have long-standing political and economic ties with Beijing, and the Chinese president was, therefore, able to act as a trusted broker between them.
If the deal is fully implemented, Tehran and Riyadh will be closely aligned once more. It was only in 2016 that diplomatic ties between the countries were severed, after a mob torched the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Now, according to the new agreement, both sides will reopen embassies, and the Saudi government will end its support for the Iran International television channel that Tehran holds responsible for domestic dissent. Both sides will uphold the April 2022 cease-fire in Yemen and begin work on a formal peace agreement to end the civil war in that country. Iran will cease supplying Houthi rebels with arms and persuade them to halt their missile attacks on Saudi Arabia. In addition, the deal calls for enhanced economic and diplomatic ties between Iran and the GCC countries, and for Iran and its Arab partners to begin discussions on building a new regional security framework. Moreover, China will continue to oversee all of these steps.
The Iranian-Saudi deal has the potential to end one of the region’s most significant rivalries and extend economic ties across the Gulf. No longer will Iran stand alone to confront an alliance of Arabs and Israelis, which the United States hoped would do the difficult job of containing it. Instead, the deal has the potential to bring Iran closer to its Arab neighbors and gradually stabilize its relations in the region. Underscoring this promise, the Saudi Finance Minister, Mohammed al-Jadaan, has pledged that, if all goes to plan, Saudi Arabia is ready to invest in Iran’s economy. Raisi has already accepted an invitation to visit Riyadh at an unspecified date, in a further sign of both sides’ intention to strengthen ties. The consequences for the region of such a rapidly developing relationship may be profound.
TEHRAN LOOKS EAST
Both Tehran and Riyadh believe that they will benefit from working through China to restore regional ties. For both countries, working with Beijing is a new development. In 2015, Iran’s priority was improving relations with the United States and Europe. It viewed negotiations with its neighbors as secondary. The result was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the nuclear deal with the United States and its fellow permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany—which curtailed Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. After U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew American support for the JCPOA in 2018, Saudi Arabia and the GCC drifted closer to Israel, a move that was accelerated by an Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. Iran in turn then changed its focus, giving new emphasis to improving relations with its neighbors and to regional trade. To that end, Tehran reestablished full diplomatic ties with Kuwait and the UAE in 2022. But the Beijing deal with the Saudis is the larger prize Iran has sought—a true opening to the Arab world, which could soon be extended to Bahrain and Egypt.
Tehran welcomes China’s deepening role in the Middle East because it weakens U.S. influence in the region and undermines the U.S.-led sanctions regime that has crippled Iran’s economy. To that end, better ties with GCC countries will lessen the threat posed by the Trump administration-brokered Abraham Accords, which initiated closer intelligence and military coordination between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE (and later extended to Morocco and Sudan), thereby extending the shadow war between Iran and Israel to the Gulf. Although Tehran might be willing to accept bilateral ties between the GCC and Israel, it could not tolerate a U.S.-backed Arab-Israeli military alliance against it. Such an alliance would be all the more threatening to Tehran in the aftermath of failed nuclear talks with the Biden administration, domestic political protests, a growing Israeli presence in Azerbaijan and Iraq, and an increasing willingness by Israel’s new right-wing government to contemplate war in order to stop Iran’s nuclear program.
RIYADH’S BALANCING ACT
For Saudi Arabia, the Beijing-led agreement constitutes a more audacious strategic shift. Relations between Riyadh and Washington are at a historic low. Saudi Arabian satisfaction with U.S. policy in the region has been declining since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Riyadh was unhappy with the dismantling of Iraq’s government, troubled by the nuclear deal, angry with U.S. unwillingness to support Saudi Arabian interests against Iran in Syria and Yemen, and concerned by its failure to defend the kingdom when its oil facilities were attacked by Iran in 2019. Riyadh believes that the United States—once its stalwart ally—is focused on other priorities, and it does not believe that Washington has a clear plan for regional security in the wake of the stalled nuclear talks with Iran. Saudi leaders are also dissatisfied with the current leadership in Washington. President Biden was slow to repair relations after pledging as a candidate to treat the regime as a “pariah,” following the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
Lacking the advanced military capabilities of its larger and more aggressive neighbors, Saudi Arabia has always been obsessed with its own defense. Reducing tensions with Tehran will not end these concerns, but it buys Riyadh more time to shore up its security and diversify its strategic options. The desire for security led Saudi Arabia to seek ties with Israel over the past decade, and the same desire is now motivating its cultivation of China. Saudi Arabia’s strategy is intended to guarantee its security. By assembling a broad network of partners, including China, Israel, and the United States, and by improving relations with adversaries such as Iran, Syria, and Turkey, the Saudi regime hopes to shore up its long-term stability.
Riyadh is showing that if U.S. policy does not serve Saudi interests, then the Saudis will not be beholden to the alliance.
Saudi Arabia has set the ambitious goal of becoming an advanced industrial economy, as well as a cultural and tourism hub, by 2030. Achieving this will require U.S. military support, Israeli security and technology, trade with Europe and China, and domestic stability. The Saudi strategy is at odds with Washington’s conception of regional security, which favors isolating Iran and does not rule out war, though there is no clear U.S. plan to manage it. The United States has also struggled to recognize that it cannot claim that nothing has changed in its commitments to its Middle Eastern partners at the same time as also making clear that it is pivoting away from the region. In effect, Riyadh is showing that if U.S. policy does not serve Saudi interests, then the Saudis will not be beholden to the alliance.
Washington has also been slow to realize that Saudi Arabia sees itself not as a security vassal of the United States but as a regional power capable of playing an independent role in world politics. Riyadh believes that the old paradigm of “U.S. security in exchange for low oil prices”—as one Saudi official put it—is dead. Saudi Arabia’s vision of strategic autonomy is not simply a reaction to diminishing U.S. engagement in the Middle East but a statement of the kingdom’s ambitions. Riyadh wants close and independent ties with the United States, as well as with Russia and China. It also sees itself as playing a crucial role in the region, balancing Egypt, Iran, Israel, and Turkey to protect its own security and wield regional influence. To hold that coveted position, Saudi Arabia must nurture relations with all its neighbors. In 2022, Riyadh restored ties with Turkey; now it is doing the same with Iran. Next it will be Israel’s turn. Relations with Iran will give the Saudis much needed political cover with their allies, meaning that a deal with Israel can be presented as a bilateral agreement, rather than a military axis against another Muslim country. The Beijing deal both affirms Riyadh’s view of its status in the Middle East and demonstrates its strategic autonomy.
SILK ROAD SECURITY
China’s involvement is perhaps the most troubling dimension of the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement. Beijing had previously been careful to avoid entanglement in the Middle East. But its burgeoning economic interests there have necessitated taking on a diplomatic role, as well. The region is important to China’s Belt and Road Initiative; the Chinese government has needed to ensure, for example, that its investments in the Saudi energy sector are not threatened by Houthi missiles. Moreover, China has been steadily expanding its economic footprint in Iran, and it is interested in supporting Moscow’s plan to develop a transit corridor through Iran that would allow Russian trade to reach global markets without using the Suez Canal. The development of this corridor would also allow China to circumvent the Strait of Malacca in the face of the formidable armada that the United States and its allies are building. To advance these strategic priorities, Beijing is now preparing to challenge Washington for influence in the Middle East.
The convergence of the broader strategic interests of China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia suggests that Beijing’s breakthrough with Iran and Saudi Arabia is likely to serve as the foundation of a new geopolitical reality in the Middle East. This transformation presents a historic challenge for the United States. No longer can Washington simply demand that its Arab allies decouple from China and unite behind its leadership to combat Iran. That approach is out of date and out of step with its allies’ current needs. As one Saudi official put it, “The United States fails to understand that we cannot be allies at the expenses of our interests.” Saudis do not see their interests served by either war with Iran or confrontation with China.
What happened in Beijing by no means lessens the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear and regional policies. However, in the short run, Washington should welcome the lowering of tensions in the Middle East, which enables the United States to focus on other global priorities without the pretense of a steadfast commitment to the region. The United States should also encourage Saudi Arabia and the GCC to explore a broader regional security architecture that will reduce the risk of war in the region, provide for maritime security, and cooperate to end long-running regional conflicts. Washington must also formulate policies that are in tune with how the region now sees its own interests. Otherwise, it will continue to lose influence to China and Russia, and the region will drift into nonalignment. Any U.S. reappraisal of its regional strategy must start with understanding the pressures and opportunities that brought Riyadh’s leadership to Beijing’s doorstep.

The World Economic Forum and the West's Next Act?
J.B. Shurk/Gatestone Institute./March 22, 2023
[E]conomic writer Charles Hugh Smith has repeatedly warned [about] the "crapification" of the U.S. economy.... customers with scant other buying options are forced to accept that few purchases will last.
Politicians seem to be heading in a similar direction.... Western governments are filled to the brim with people entirely lacking in real-world experience or specialized knowledge.
In recent decades, a noticeable trend in the West has been to elevate politicians, as young and inexperienced as possible, into offices as high as possible.... Such a system -- in which those who have proven themselves the least are given responsibilities that would test even those who have proven themselves time and again -- hardly looks ideal.
If Western politicians seem just as second-rate these days as what customers all too often find in stores, there may be a simple reason why: International financial titans make, sell, and own both... and may be planning to own you, too.
Western governments are filled to the brim with people entirely lacking in real-world experience or specialized knowledge. In recent decades, a noticeable trend in the West has been to elevate politicians, as young and inexperienced as possible, into offices as high as possible. Pictured: National leaders, including US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau strike a deep, contemplative pose at the G20 summit on November 16, 2022 in Nusa Dua, Indonesia
If you are a consumer today, inflation is only one of the problems harming you. As prices go up, quality continues to go down. What most stores have to offer you might crassly be called "cheap crap." In fact, economic writer Charles Hugh Smith has repeatedly warned that the "crapification" of the U.S. economy is the natural result of a "neoliberal-hyper-financialization-hyper-globalization model," in which quasi-monopolist manufacturers mass-produce goods with the cheapest possible components, while customers with scant other buying options are forced to accept that few purchases will last.
"Planned obsolescence," combined with a free market "in name only," creates a rigged system in which downstream consumers are forced to pay more over time, while owning little that will maintain value for long. Appliances that used to work for decades now barely make it through legally required warranty periods. Metal tools that could be passed from one generation to the next now tend to rust before they can be used on more than a handful of jobs. When expensive electronic devices survive more than two years, cash-strapped households breathe a sigh of relief. Just about anybody who is old enough to remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks can tell a story about some product that was so much cheaper, yet so much more reliable, when it was purchased long ago.
Likewise, customer service is more pitiful than it has ever been. Try to speak with a real human on the phone. It is nearly impossible. Automated assistance has eliminated personal interaction from most buying experiences. Gas stations, fast-food restaurants, and convenience stores have replaced human cashiers with camera-equipped machines designed for self-service. Even a visit to a grocery or home goods store now routinely requires the use of a self-checkout kiosk when making a purchases. It has become entirely normal to witness people struggling through the routine of lifting everything out of their shopping carts, scanning each item, and placing the load into bags, before throwing everything back onto carts, paying, and shuffling away. It is somewhat perplexing to consider that not so long ago, helpful, smiling employees worked hard to take care of all those services as part of the ordinary relationship maintained between a business and its customers.
Cutting out the cost of extra employees whose hourly wages have been pushed higher and higher by minimum wage laws that try to keep workers aligned with the rising cost of everything might help prevent already inflated prices from rising even further, but it is difficult to watch shoppers performing jobs once done by paid workers without concluding that "progress" has taken the market experience to a place that feels closer to "regress."
Politicians seem to be heading in a similar direction. Politics, as a profession, has always been known to attract at least as many ambitious "empty suits" as it does leaders of substance. Still, the great writers, orators, and thinkers that occasionally rose to political prominence in the past seem to have left the stage for good. Winston Churchill not only led the United Kingdom to victory during WWII but also won the 1953 Nobel Prize in Literature "for his mastery of historical and biographical description as well as for brilliant oratory in defending exalted human values."
Daniel Patrick Moynihan not only represented New York as a U.S. Senator but also drew on his own sociological expertise while serving in the Labor Department to produce a thorough report on the endemic causes of, and potential remedies for, systemic poverty in America.
President Abraham Lincoln not only was instrumental in preserving the Union but also a dedicated student all his life; he kept the works of William Shakespeare on his White House desk.
In contrast, few deep thinkers rise to high office today. There are no great statesmen whom the broader public see as towering above the herd of self-centered and cynical political lemmings. Few professional politicians, especially those in the United States, are even capable of speaking extemporaneously before an audience for any stretch of time. Too many rely on the assistance of teleprompters or similar devices to provide an exact script for every publicly spoken utterance, no matter how trivial or informal — suggesting that either they or their staffs cannot trust just what might otherwise escape their lips.
Rather than pursuing political office after having accomplished great things in other fields, the vast majority of today's officeholders choose politics as a vocation for life. The end result is that Western governments are filled to the brim with people entirely lacking in real-world experience or specialized knowledge.
In recent decades, a noticeable trend in the West has been to elevate politicians, as young and inexperienced as possible, into offices as high as possible.
Many of the most famous politicians today no sooner secure a single election victory than their colleagues began pushing them into government roles at the top of the political hierarchy. Former U.S. President Barack Obama, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and her successor Chris Hipkins all ascended to the zeniths of national power exceptionally early in their careers.
Looking around at the legislators, presidents, and prime ministers today who are leading Western nations on the world stage, you could be forgiven for extrapolating that the quickest path to political power is to accomplish little in the real world, while scrambling up the political pyramid before there is time to make or learn from mistakes. Such a system -- in which those who have proven themselves the least are given responsibilities that would test even those who have proven themselves time and again -- hardly looks ideal.
On the flip side is someone such as U.S. President Joe Biden, the oldest to have ever held the office. Whereas Biden's near half-century in national elected office has surely afforded him the chance to make and remedy many mistakes, he is now so "seasoned" that few weeks go by when some publication does not question either his mental competency, ability to keep up with the rigors of such a demanding job, or the wear and tear on the "influence" possibly peddled.
Two stories, embodying the "crapification" of products, recently emerged, concerning the authenticity of a presidential speech. In the first, a fake video created through the use of artificial intelligence showed Biden announcing the implementation of the Selective Service Act and the imminent drafting of young Americans born on a certain date into military service. Amid heightening tensions with Russia and China, many Americans who came across the video mistakenly assumed that the United States had officially gone to war.
In the other video, Biden's quite real but somewhat confusing and meandering storytelling during a speech about health care was mistakenly labeled as "doctored" or "fake" by enough viewers that Twitter actually added a certification label attesting, "This is in fact unedited legitimate footage from a Joe Biden speech which took place on 2/28/23." Clearly, in a world where fake videos have become remarkably easy to construct, everyone's credibility and reputation are now at risk.
Chintzy products and tinpot politicians are nothing new. Whether spending money or casting votes, the same caveat emptor principle applies: Let the buyer beware. Still, it is worth considering whether the political and economic knockoffs flooding Western markets today have something in common.
A Nigerian proverb warns against small singing birds with loud voices, because they almost always have much stronger protectors hidden behind thicker leaves. What today's Western political leaders might lack in lengthy experience or trustworthy rhetoric, they certainly make up with bombastic pronouncement.
Ever since the dawn of COVID, "Build Back Better" has been repeated by "young global leaders" flocking to Klaus Schwab's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. When Schwab and his WEF companions turned COVID tragedy into an opportunity for unleashing a "Great Reset" that would transform global markets, governance and power, nearly every Western political leader agreed. The synchronicity is enough to make you wonder whether it is your nation or the World Economic Forum that actually leads. Perhaps as the Nigerian proverb warns, today's Western political leaders chirp about "Build Back Better" so loudly because Klaus Schwab's financial predators stand directly behind them in the bush.
If so, then the West has become an oligarchy of financial "elites," no matter how many times its political leaders extol the virtues of "democracy." A financial oligarchy over political power is like a manufacturing monopoly over economic power: In both markets, goods are mass-produced with the cheapest possible components. The end result is that things break easily, and systems do not last. If Western politicians seem just as second-rate these days as what customers all too often find in stores, there may be a simple reason why: International financial titans make, sell, and own both... and may be planning to own you, too.
*JB Shurk writes about politics and society.
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Facing existential threats, Israelis can’t resist fighting one another
Clifford D. May/The washington Times/Tuesday, March 21, 2023
TEL AVIV, ISRAEL — How many simultaneous conflicts can a small country handle? Israel — whose land area is smaller than that of Djibouti, and whose population is smaller than that of Cairo — may soon find out.
The most serious threat is posed by Iran’s rulers. They continue to progress toward the development of nuclear weapons that would give them the means to achieve their openly stated goal: the extermination of Israel and Israelis.
On a visit to Germany last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “Israel will do what Israel needs to do” to defend itself as it has for the past 75 years.
Because no other state in the region has both the will and the means to stand up to Tehran, a growing number of Arab nations have come to see that Israel’s existence serves their interests. Saudi Arabia, the most important Arab nation, has not formalized this recognition, but its relations with Israel have grown closer. Earlier this month, however, there was an unexpected announcement: Diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran will be reestablished. The deal was brokered by China’s rulers, who plan to replace the U.S. as the most influential power in the Middle East — and, over time, in every corner of the world. Muslim activist outed by mom over ethnicity lies: ‘I’m as White as the driven snow and so is she’
That doesn’t mean the Saudis now trust their jihadi neighbors. It does mean they are hedging their bets, uncertain about who will prove to be the strong horse in the years ahead. One source of strength for Tehran is Hezbollah, its proxy, which for all intents and purposes controls the dysfunctional state of Lebanon.
In clear violation of agreements ending its 2006 conflict with Israel, Hezbollah has installed — in Lebanese schools, hospitals, mosques and homes — as many as 150,000 missiles, a growing number of them precision-guided and therefore more lethal and difficult for Israelis to destroy in flight.
Last week, at the Megiddo Junction in northern Israel (the site of the ancient city from which we derive the word Armageddon), a terrorist planted a large roadside bomb that wounded a 21-year-old Israeli Arab, probably not the intended outcome.
The terrorist, identified as Ali Ramzi al-Aswad, was tracked back to Damascus, where he was killed, apparently by Israeli security forces. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a Tehran-backed group, called him a “leader.”
Islamic Jihad would likely join any new conflict between Israel and Iran or Hezbollah, as would Hamas, which rules Gaza and has no higher priority than killing Israeli Jews. Both groups have now established cells in the northern West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority is meant to be governing under the Oslo Accords. Smaller Islamist terrorist organizations in this area, for example, the Lion’s Den, have also been regularly carrying out attacks — 1,352 since March of last year, according to FDD research. Though most of those attacks were thwarted, at least 31 Israelis were killed in 2022. Earlier this year, seven Israelis were shot and killed outside a synagogue in Jerusalem. The Palestinian Authority’s response? According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, it “praises the terrorist operatives and gives their families special treatment, including financial support.”
Nevertheless, the Biden administration, as my FDD colleague Tony Badran recently wrote, is “standing up a potential 5,000-man Palestinian terror army that would ostensibly fight terrorism in the West Bank in place of the IDF,” the Israel Defense Forces. Mr. Badran is betting the Palestinian army will end up aiding and abetting terrorists and fighting the IDF.
The current round of Palestinian-Israeli violence was accelerated on Feb. 26 when two Israeli brothers were killed as they sat in their car in traffic on the main road through the West Bank village of Huwara. Village residents celebrated the murders, passing out sweets. Israelis from nearby communities responded by going on a rampage in the streets of Huwara, burning homes and cars, and leaving one Palestinian dead. Mr. Netanyahu issued a statement both lamenting the killing of the brothers and calling on Israelis to refrain from revenge attacks. No one will be surprised if the conflict escalates over the days ahead.
Israel is also fighting a “war between the wars” in Syria, bombing military bases Iran’s rulers are attempting to establish. The Tehran regime is expelling Syrian Sunnis from their villages, replacing them with Shia colonies. U.N. officials have shown little interest in this modern variant of colonialism.
What interests U.N. officials more? Obsessively and relentlessly demonizing and delegitimizing the only state in the Middle East where Jews, Arabs and a long list of minorities enjoy the freedom of religion and speech.
With so many enemies warring against them, you might expect Israelis to be more united than ever. Instead, they are furiously quarreling over proposals by the current government to limit what has been the growing powers of judges.
Opponents of reform have been staging demonstrations, blocking highways, and insisting that any curbs on the judiciary will end democracy.
I’ve heard persuasive arguments on both sides of the debate. For example, proponents of reform object to unelected judges blocking both laws and policies simply because they find them “unreasonable.” Opponents counter that without wide-ranging judicial review, there would be neither checks nor balances on the Knesset and the prime minister. While a compromise is not hard to envision, an agreement does not seem imminent.
That may be because the roots of this conflict go deeper, feeding on resentments between the far left and the far right, between secular Israelis and the ultra-religious, and between Jews of European descent and those from Middle Eastern countries.
Israel is a small country, but its multiple enemies loom large. That’s the main thing. Israelis of all persuasions and backgrounds would be wise to keep the main thing the main thing.
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for The Washington Times.

Trump…Who Wins and Who Loses?
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/March 22/2023
As local authorities in several states prepare for potential protests by supporters of former US President Donald Trump against his “possible arrest” for allegedly paying a bribe to "silence" a porn star in 2016, US media outlets are trying to identify the winners and losers of this battle.
At the time of writing, New York County District Attorney Alvin Bragg has not indicted Trump. I believe that if he is indicted and thereby arrested, the biggest loser would neither be the Democrats, nor Republicans; it would be the democratic process itself, both in the United States and globally.
The indictment takes place and Trump gets arrested, it would coincide at a time when the US is preparing for the start of presidential election campaigns, giving us the impression that the process has been politicized. The legal details are irrelevant to much of the American public and even many around the world.
Here, we should keep in mind that this is a battle of impressions, so to speak. These battles are far more complicated than legal or political disputes. The game of impressions is Trump’s forte, which is obvious from how he has been playing it since his emergence on the political scene.
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said that he is “directing relevant committees to immediately investigate if federal funds are being used to subvert our democracy by interfering in elections with politically motivated prosecutions.” He also accused the New York County District Attorney of using his position to “pursue political vengeance against President Trump.”
This statement will not be a Republican viewpoint. Indeed, this is the impression of every observer watching the political process in the United States and the extent to which it is democratic. Most American thinkers and politicians claim that the best way to safeguard democracy is to practice it seriously at home.
Of course, Trump’s political rise was the biggest challenge to democracy, and so is the case of other populist movements across the globe. Therefore, how to deal with Trump and populists like him is the real test of the democratic process.
Here, we are not discussing a matter that only pertains to the US. Rather, the question is how the world views this superpower that wants its foreign policy to be tied to “democratic values,” especially since President Biden announced an international conference of the world’s democracies early in his term.
However, what has happened and is happening during his reign - the misconduct of his administration - has dealt a blow to democracy. We saw the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan and how the country was handed over to the Taliban, undermining the credibility of the United States. Another example is how Biden dealt with the Iran protests, which mirrored Obama’s approach to the Syrian revolution.
Now, if Trump is charged and arrested, this image of democracy and the link between democratic values and US foreign policy will be be dealt with a real blow. His arrest would make it ridiculous for an American official in the region, for example, to talk about democracy and its significance.
And again, this is not an academic or legal debate. Rather, we are talking about a stereotypical image of the US that is becoming increasingly widespread: There is no difference between US democracy and its political disputes, and the events we see unfolding in some countries in the region.
And so, the struggle between Democrats and Republicans in the United States has dealt a major blow to the concept of democracy. Indeed, they did more to undermine this concept than democracy’s opponents, particularly during the current president’s term.

There Is No ‘Right’ or ‘Left,’ Only Right or Wrong
Raymond Ibrahim/March 22/2023
One of the most misleading and dangerous words that all sane people need to exercise caution with—if not do away with altogether—is the “Left.”
Why? Because it bestows legitimacy on insanity and worse.
In current discourse, the Left and Right are seen as polar opposites on a continuum of political views. Imagine a horizontal line: the further right one goes, the more conservative, religious, traditional, one becomes; the further left, the more liberal, secular, and progressive. Meanwhile, and here’s arguably the most misleading aspect of this paradigm, the middle of the line—the “centrist” position—becomes the default “middle ground,” the area where supposedly objective, non-ideologically charged people reside. To a large extent, this paradigm is pure nonsense and exists only to legitimize falsehoods and corruption. It is built atop an assumption—that there are no truths, or if there are, they are somewhere in the middle. Inasmuch as one veers to the right or left they become “extremists.”
As one example, consider the rise of gender confusion, if not hysteria, where “identifying” with either gender—or make believe genders—automatically makes one of that gender, and woe to whoever objects. Anyone who refers to this development as “Leftist” unwittingly legitimizes it. After all, and as seen in the current model, the Left, by its very nomenclature, is part of a legitimate spectrum of political views, no different than the Right. Based on this model, people on the “Right,” who staunchly believe there are two, and only two, genders, are merely the polar opposites of those who believe in an infinite amount of genders. Thus both deserve equal respect—equal legitimacy in the so-called discourse of ideas—certainly from the supposedly “objective” fellow in the “middle.”
In reality, there are only two genders—“Left/Right” constructs be damned. Affirming this scientific fact is not a “Rightist” position. It is a factual position. Anything that diverges from it, by a little or by a lot, is wrong, unworthy of consideration or debate and deserving of zero legitimacy. In this context, the Right is right, pure and simple; and everything that moves left of it is wrong. That includes the squishy “Chamber of Commerce” Right and certainly the Center — to say nothing of the Left, where unadulterated madness reigns.
For people of faith, especially monotheists, understanding what is going on, and what words to use, should be especially simple. After all, religions presuppose truths; that is what they are all about—offering a worldview based on truisms.
That truism may be that God created Adam and Eve or that homosexuality of any kind—even the by now banal man-on-man form—is a sin, literally, a missing of the mark, an error. Whatever that religious truism is, going against it should not be seen by the faithful as an “alternate” position, one on a make believe line stretching from right to left, with each extreme having its own “logic.”
Rather, anything that diverges even a little from truth should be seen for what it is—a falsehood, a lie, an error. In this more accurate context, those who howl about and spew gender nonsense can at last be seen for what they truly are: not “extreme Leftists,” but poor souls who suffer from insanity or possession. These descriptors may appear highly offensive—though no more offensive than the positions they describe—but at least they more accurately define what you’re really dealing with.
What about atheists and agnostics? There was a time when, despite their personal beliefs (or lack thereof), their worldview was still permeated by a heritage of rational thinking and logic—a word, not coincidentally, derived from Logos—so that they could deny God but also deny the current madness of the age. As time “progresses,” however, and as their connection to Logos becomes weaker and weaker, they, too, lose the ability to accept absolute truisms; and the current spirit of the age—“do what thou wilt”—becomes their default position.
Words matter; and the war on words is not limited to manipulating the meaning of man or woman, but rather manipulating people—including Christians and the ultra-conservative—into seeing politics through a so-called “Right/Left” prism.
So long as we continue to refer to madness or worse as “the Left,” so long will we continue to legitimize and give it a platform. More accurate words are needed. For people of faith who accept absolute truths in the realm of morality—or for people of reason who accept absolute facts in the realm of science—finding more accurate words should not be difficult.
When it comes to an increasing number of topics, there is no Right or Left; there is only Right or Wrong. The sooner this is acknowledged, the sooner sanity will have a chance of prevailing.

تقرير مطول يلقي الأضواء على مأساة المسيحيين الأشوريين في شمال سوريا: تهجير واضطعاد وسؤ معاملة
Lyse Mauvais & Solin Muhammed Amin/Syria Direct: ‘Strangers in our own homes’: A waning Assyrian community holds on in northeastern Syria
March 22/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116811/lyse-mauvais-solin-muhammed-amin-syria-direct-strangers-in-our-own-homes-a-waning-assyrian-community-holds-on-in-northeastern-syria/
TAL TAL — The village of Tal Tal, on the banks of the empty Khabour River in Syria’s northeastern Hasakah province, is a ghost town.
On an overcast day in early February, the air in the village is cold and crisp but carries no sounds. Here and there, clothes left out to dry and plumes of thick smoke sputtering out of the dark pipes of fuel stoves betray human presence behind the peeling facades of seemingly abandoned houses. Other than these subtle signs of life, Tal Tal is eerily silent, absent the expected hum of cars, the bleats of sheep and the shouts of children.
Less than a decade ago, Tal Tal was home to dozens of Assyrian families—members of an Aramaic-speaking Christian community widely considered to be among the most ancient peoples of the Levant. In the 1920s, thousands of Assyrians took refuge in northern Syria after fleeing the 1915 genocide perpetrated by Turkish nationalists against Christian minorities in the Ottoman Empire.
Others found refuge in northern Iraq, controlled by Britain at the time. But in 1933, they were uprooted again following the Simele massacre, during which the newly established Iraqi army destroyed 60 of 64 Assyrian villages, murdering an estimated 10,000 people. Fleeing persecution, some 15,000 survivors marched west towards northeastern Syria, then under the French Mandate.
These refugees built a cluster of 35 villages and towns on the banks of the Khabour River, a tributary of the Euphrates that flows northwest to southeast through Hasakah province. For several decades, their community thrived and became renowned in the region for its rich pomegranate orchards and neatly kept vineyards.
But in 2015, disaster struck. Fighters from the Islamic State (IS) attacked the villages, destroying churches and kidnapping more than 250 people. Thousands fled: Out of an estimated 15,000 Assyrians who lived along the river before the war, less than 1,000 are left today, several Assyrian leaders told Syria Direct.
Out of an estimated 15,000 Assyrians who lived along the river before the war, less than 1,000 are left today.
A century after the genocide that first displaced them from their homeland in southeastern Turkey, the rise of IS scattered the community once more, driving thousands into exile in Europe, North America and Australia. More than eight years later, despite the territorial defeat of IS in 2019, most have not returned.
Left largely empty, their villages now shelter the survivors of other conflicts: thousands of internally displaced people fleeing Turkish military operations against areas of northeastern Syria controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—a Kurdish-led military coalition that also encompasses Arab, Syriac and Assyrian units. But the prolonged presence of the displaced has fueled tensions around land use and property rights, stoking many Assyrians’ fears of being permanently dispossessed of their villages.
The remains of the destroyed Mar Odisho Church in Tal Tal, an Assyrian village in Syria’s northeastern Hasakah province, 2/2/2023 (Lyse Mauvais/Syria Direct)
Part I – A community falls apart
On February 23, 2015, life came to a standstill in the Assyrian villages along the Khabour. Meriem, a young Assyrian woman, was 15 when IS attacked and abducted hundreds of people, including her and her relatives in the village of Tal Shamiram.
“IS’ attacks turned my entire life upside down,” she told Syria Direct in Tal Tal, where she now lives with her husband and two children. “I lost my happy village, my neighbors. My family was scattered abroad. There was constant fear.”
By the end of May 2015, the Syriac Military Council and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) managed to drive IS out of the Khabour villages. In February 2016, IS released the last abductees, including Meriem, in exchange for ransom. Like other survivors, she hoped life would go back to how it once was. But these hopes quickly vanished, as violence continued.
Tal Tamar and surrounding villages lie along the western fringe of SDF-controlled parts of Hasakah province, near an active frontline with territories controlled by Turkish-backed opposition factions and pro-regime forces. Turkish-backed groups regularly shell villages along the Khabour, like Meriem’s native Tal Shamiram, while the SDF targets areas located further west.
Active conflict makes the area nearly “unlivable,” residents say. In recent years, shelling has damaged churches and essential infrastructure, such as power lines. Fields near the frontlines are left fallow due to the fear of bombardment.
Makeshift settlements
But while few Assyrians have returned to the banks of the Khabour, newcomers have found a refuge in empty villages and homes.
The road leading to Tal Nasri, another Assyrian village, is dotted with makeshift shelters set up by internally displaced people. In the village, nearly every building is inhabited, with two or three families sometimes sharing the same house. Some have patched broken walls and missing roofs with tarps, piled cement blocks to divide courtyards into smaller spaces and crafted single-room shelters along the walls of concrete compounds. In an olive grove standing behind the rubble of the destroyed St. Mary’s Church, children chop trees for firewood.
“We came here four years ago to seek refuge because we heard the Assyrian villages were empty, but we have nothing to live on here,” one displaced mother of five told Syria Direct, standing at the door of her one-room house. In a neighboring house, a white tarp divided the main room to separate two families: 11 people in total.
These families started to arrive in Tal Nasri in 2018 following Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch, in which Turkish-backed fighters seized the Kurdish-majority enclave of Afrin in northwestern Syria. Fleeing heavy Turkish bombing, thousands of mostly Kurdish families moved towards SDF-controlled Hasakah province. At first, they received a warm welcome.
“When the refugees arrived from Afrin, they were welcomed in the Khabour villages by Assyrian authorities,” Mahmoud Karo, the deputy in charge of IDP affairs at the Board of Social Affairs and Labor of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the de facto government in SDF-controlled areas, told Syria Direct. “We came to arrange electricity for them and install generators.”
By November 2022, more than 16,000 displaced people lived in the whole sub-district of Tal Tamar, making up around one third of the total population.
In total, Assyrians opened 1,750 houses in their villages around Tal Tamar, including the entire village of Tal Nasri, which was home to 650 people before the war. The initiative was led by the local bishop (matran) of the Assyrian Church of the East, and the houses were distributed by the Committee for the Protection of Absentee Properties (CPAP), a local body that manages vacant properties.
The following year, new Turkish incursions into SDF-controlled territories brought the frontline closer to Tal Tamar, and many of those from Afrin who settled there fled, Karo said. In their wake came thousands of Kurds and Arabs newly displaced from the countryside of Ras al-Ain, which was seized by Turkey in late 2019 during Operation Peace Spring.
“This second wave of displacement was much more spontaneous,” Karo recalled. Arrivals were more chaotic and were not coordinated by local community members like those from Afrin. By November 2022, more than 16,000 displaced people lived in the whole sub-district of Tal Tamar, making up around one third of the total population.
‘Strangers in our own homes’
As the number of displaced people increased, tensions began to brew with their Assyrian hosts over land and property use. Many of those initially hosted in the Assyrian villages were relatives or acquaintances of local families, like Abu Ahmad, a Kurdish-Assyrian man displaced from Ras al-Ain to Tal Tal in 2019 with his family.
“Two weeks before the bombing started in Ras al Ain, people in Tal Tamar called us to warn us that an attack was imminent,” Abu Ahmad, who was part of an Assyrian military organization and was well-connected with local leaders in Tal Tamar, recalled. “They told me: Bring your wife and your children, come here, there is a house ready and waiting for you.”
For local leaders in the CPAP, tasked with managing the property of Assyrians living abroad, lending houses to people they already knew filled a dual purpose: On one hand, it was a humanitarian gesture. On the other, it allowed them to have people they trusted on the ground to keep the villages alive.
But as displacement intensified in 2019, it grew increasingly difficult to regulate who lived in the villages. Localized clashes cropped up as Assyrians protested against newcomers grazing their cattle in their fields, chopping trees and vines for firewood or modifying the layout of houses to host multiple families.
“We feel like strangers in our own homes….We agreed to host people for humanitarian reasons, but it’s becoming permanent.”
Several Assyrians openly accused some of the families of being “fakes,”not displaced, but squatting in the villages to get aid—a perception that is likely exaggerated. “These IDPs may receive some form of assistance, but it’s most likely symbolic—a few blankets, some food, some fuel for heating once in a while,” Karo of the AANES Board of Social Affairs said. “There’s no coordinated international assistance to the area, and no long-term support.”
Still, local leaders perceive the lingering presence of displaced outsiders as a threat. “We feel like strangers in our own homes,” Boulos Odisho, the head of Tal Tamar’s CPAP, summarized. “We agreed to host people for humanitarian reasons, but it’s becoming permanent.”
Some, like Gabriel Moushe, the head of the Assyrian Democratic Organization Party, expressed “serious fears that this situation will lead to permanent demographic change.”
These concerns intensified in August 2022 when the village of Tal Nasri was targeted by what several Assyrian leaders called “an attempt to settle by force.”Abu Ahmad, who was there, recalled that “around 300 people arrived all of a sudden with 50 pickups, furniture, generators. With all they were bringing, it was clear they were here to resettle in the village. They broke locks and doors, and moved into the houses.”
As families scrambled into the vacant houses, residents of the village called the Sutoro, an Assyrian-Syriac police force, which eventually expelled the squatters in coordination with the SDF. But the incident, which lasted days, left a lasting impression.
PART II – Protecting properties
As tensions between displaced people and host communities intensify in the Khabour villages, members of the Assyrian community are increasingly worried about the fate of land and property they left behind in 2015.
This worry is familiar to many Syrians. Across all parts of the country, people face increasing difficulties protecting their property rights since the onset of the war. This is partly due to the legal chaos created by war and the collapse of institutions, but also because parties to the conflict have illegally seized homes, land and property left behind by displaced people and refugees.
“During the war against IS, we could see there were multiple threats against the properties of emigrants, against houses, against agricultural lands,” Sanharib Borsom, the chairman of the Syriac Union Party, a Syriac-Assyrian party in northeastern Syria, told Syria Direct. “We needed a way to defend the rights of absentee owners.”
In response, Assyrian political leaders and clergymen established a mechanism to control absentees’ property within the courts of the AANES. But over the past eight years, the initiative has faced multiple challenges, including criticism from within the community itself.
The Committee for the Protection of Absentees’ Properties
In 2014 and 2015, the local authorities in northeastern Syria that preceded the AANES—which was formally established in 2018 by a Kurdish-led coalition of Kurdish, Arab, Syriac and Assyrian parties—issued several decisions to restrict the sale of property whose owners were absent.
At the time, Syrian Yezidis and Christians were fleeing their villages en masse to escape the threat of IS, and their land was being sold with little oversight.
One law, Decree 20 of 2015, granted special protections to Syria’s Yezidi and Christian minorities, who were allowed to form committees to manage properties whose owners were missing or left the area. At the time, Syrian Yezidis and Christians were fleeing their villages en masse to escape the threat of IS, and their land was being sold with little oversight.
Assyrian political leaders welcomed the measure. They were generally concerned that their community along the Khabour would disappear altogether in the wake of the massacres committed by IS, and the resulting depopulation of the area. Many of them saw preserving the historically Assyrian character of these settlements as an essential condition for the community to return in the future.
“Most of the original inhabitants of the Khabour emigrated outside of Syria, but there’s a portion that remains in Hasakah and Qamishli, some in regime areas, or in neighboring countries,” Borsom said. “These communities will return to their villages if they are safe and there are livelihood opportunities.”
Based on Decree 20, in 2015, members of three Syriac and Assyrian parties (the Syriac Union Party, the Assyrian Organization and the Assyrian Democratic Party), alongside clergy from various Assyrian, Syria and Chaldean churches, jointly established the Committee for the Protection of Absentee Properties (CPAP) to manage Christian absentees’ properties and represent them in court. This regional CPAP was then split into various local branches, made up of local community leaders. In Tal Tamar, the committee is made up of 10 members selected by the local bishop.
“The CPAP is the legal representative of absentee owners in AANES courts and institutions,” Borsom, of the Syriac Union Party, explained. “If absentees cannot come in person, because they are unable to travel, or their life is in danger in Syria, the committee watches over their interest here.”
Legal and military threats
Since it came into being in 2015, the committee’s Tal Tamar branch has had to confront a multitude of threats to property rights. One of the most salient ones is linked to the conflict of jurisdiction between the AANES and the Syrian government: the AANES and the regime each have their own system of courts in northeastern Syria. Although the AANES controls most of the region, decisions issued by regime courts remain legally valid. What’s more, the AANES does not have a land registry, so property transactions can only be fully certified by regime courts.
The overlapping systems have led to a host of legal problems, including the proliferation of fake property documents certified in Syrian government courts amid rampant corruption.
Read more: Northeastern Syria marks two years of legal paralysis as de facto authorities struggle to issue new land registry
“There’s been dozens of cases across all Christian communities of people trying to claim absentee properties as theirs, using forged documents that are certified by Syrian regime courts,” Borsom said. “There are judges, notaries and lawyers who are all working hand in hand to certify forged documents in exchange for bribes.”
In Tal Tamar, farmland is particularly coveted and lands belonging to absent owners have sometimes been sold despite the opposition of the local CPAP. Yet as an organization created following a decision by the AANES, the CPAP is not recognized by the Syrian regime and is usually powerless in regime courts.
But the regime is not the only issue. Several CPAP members told Syria Direct that ongoing military activities are a major threat to property rights—including operations carried out by the SDF.
According to Odisho, who sits on the Tal Tamar CPAP, the SDF and affiliated groups have taken over nine villages located on or near the frontline with Turkish-backed groups in recent years.
“They asked me for the key to the house, but I refused. So they simply broke the door and moved in.”
“Some of our villages near the frontline have been taken over for military needs and to protect us,” Odisho said. “Part of my land is now on or around a military airbase, but I don’t receive any compensation for the area I can’t farm or the lost harvest,” he said.
Other members of Tal Tamar’s CPAP said members of the SDF have forcibly seized houses without any military justification. In Tal Feyda, which is not directly on the frontline, CPAP member Edmond Kariakos witnessed the seizure of a house belonging to an absentee family by members of the SDF.
“They asked me for the key to the house, but I refused. So they simply broke the door and moved in,” Kariakos told Syria Direct. “There are now a dozen SDF soldiers staying inside.” According to Odisho, attempts to recover the house failed because AANES courts do not look into military matters.
Syria Direct could not independently verify these allegations, but the same accusations were echoed by several Assyrian political leaders, who said the SDF military presence in the Khabour villages, while justified by the ongoing threat of a Turkish attack, made the area unlivable for civilians.
“Even properties that weren’t destroyed by IS are now in danger due to military operations and the presence of dozens of tunnels dug by the SDF near the frontline,” Moushe of the Assyrian Democratic Organization, which is not part of the AANES coalition, said. “I don’t see the military purpose of these tunnels. Of course, in border areas and in the countryside the situation is very different. But inside cities and villages they are a risk factor that can damage buildings.”
The SDF acknowledges the existence of these tunnels and military points, but claims they are justified by military needs. “Of course in areas located on the frontline there is a military presence and there are military operations, “ Hanna of the Syriac Military Council said. “But you can visit the rest of the area and see for yourself. Our goal is to keep civilians out of harm and keep them away from the front. We do not use people as human shields, like IS did.”
A contested system
Despite their efforts to protect the rights of absentees, the CPAP also faces critiques, including from within the Assyrian community.
Shortly after Decree 20 of 2015 was announced, providing for the formation of the committees, de facto authorities in Hasakah had to retract it due to popular backlash. The law’s opponents believed it gave authorities too much control over absentees’ properties. In 2020, the AANES tried to adopt the same measures once more through Law 7 of 2020, but had to cancel these just a week later due to popular opposition. Despite this, the CPAP and its local branches remained in place once established—though not uncontested.
Although set up to protect the rights of absent property owners, the Tal Tamar CPAP, for example, does not include any Assyrians living abroad, who have limited control over the fate of their property. The committee also does not include any women, which raises questions about whether it represents the whole community, and its eagerness to protect the specific rights of female property owners—in inheritance and divorce cases, for example.
The CPAP system may also entrench preexisting power dynamics within the villages. Tal Tamar’s 10 committee members, who were not elected but rather selected as already recognized local figures, wield enormous power. They represent owners in court, allocate houses and approve rental contracts between absentee landlords and local farmers in line with their stated goal of keeping properties within the community. Usually, the CPAP rejects attempts by absentee owners to sell to non-Assyrian or non-Christian buyers.
The committee also decides who gets to farm and graze their flocks on agricultural lands left behind by absentees, which can be a source of contention. “We distribute farming rights over their lands to the people who are still here. We don’t let absentees put someone on the land on their behalf to get revenues,” Odisho said. “Those who stayed behind have priority.”
As a result, absentee owners have limited control over their properties, while displaced people have no legal documents securing their presence inside Assyrians’ houses. After five displacements and four years in Tal Tal, Abu Ahmad is still in a precarious situation. He has no rental contract or direct relationship with the owner of the house he now lives in. Everything is mediated by the CPAP, which means he could be evicted any day with little recourse.
“Life is miserable: There’s no water, no electricity, everyone is gone. If things continue like this, in 10 years there won’t be a single Assyrian in Tal Tamar.”
PART III – The future of the Khabour
Many Assyrians still living along the Khabour watch the transformation of their villages and the disintegration of their community with great pain. Most of those who stayed behind are elders who refuse to emigrate and abandon their lifelong homes.
“We are the last ones left, four families,” an elder from the village of Tal Tal told Syria Direct, standing in the rubble of the Mar Odisho church bombed by IS in 2015. “Life is miserable: There’s no water, no electricity, everyone is gone. If things continue like this, in 10 years there won’t be a single Assyrian in Tal Tamar.”
Despite Assyrians’ attempts to keep their properties within the community, and thus prevent the long-term settlement of other groups in their villages, it is unclear whether those who sought refuge abroad will return permanently to the area. Stuck between the demands of this dwindling minority and the growing needs to host people displaced by war, how does the AANES plan to manage these villages? And how do Assyrians themselves see the future of their community?
A dying Eden
The IS attacks in 2015 were the tipping point that sparked the mass exodus of the last Assyrians from the Khabour. But large-scale emigration out of the region actually began years before the war, prompted by a mix of environmental, economic and political factors.
“Even before 2011, Assyrians and Syriacs were steadily emigrating due to the bad economic situation and the lack of rights they had here as a minority group,” Moushe told Syria Direct. The Assyrian Monitor for Human Rights, a human rights monitor based in Sweden, estimates that only 15,000 Assyrians lived in the area in 2010, down from what Moushe estimated to be around 22,000 in the early 2000s.
“Even before 2011, Assyrians and Syriacs were steadily emigrating due to the bad economic situation and the lack of rights they had here as a minority group.”
Environmental factors also played a large role. In the 1990s, the underground springs that feed the Khabour River, which are located around the city of Ras al-Ain at the border between Turkey and Syria, started to dry up due to overpumping on both sides of the border. This was in turn connected to transformations in land use: once a rain-fed area primarily used by nomads to graze their cattle, from the 1950s on the Khabour Basin became an agricultural powerhouse practicing increasingly intensive irrigated farming.
This ecological crisis took a major toll on the Khabour villages. By the early 2000s, the river stopped flowing year round, and farmers had to drill wells to water their summer crops. The decrease in water flow also impacted downstream reservoirs that fed an extensive network of irrigation canals, and irrigated surfaces in the Khabour Basin dwindled.
“Assyrians have been thinking about emigration for a very long time, and after the war, a lot of people regretted not having done it before.”
Many Assyrian farmers moved out of their villages to the nearby city of Hasakah, where amenities were better. “Many families in the village didn’t depend only on agriculture, some had an office job and a house in Hasakah,” Meriem recalled. “When the river dried, many people moved there permanently. Those who could afford to drill a well continued to farm, and others left the land as it was, unirrigated.”
Economic decline, coupled with the repressive environment that prevailed in Syria under the Assad regime, turned the Khabour villages into a land of emigration well before the war. “Assyrians have been thinking about emigration for a very long time, and after the war, a lot of people regretted not having done it before,” Meriem said. This in turn enabled the 2015 exodus, since there were already multiple Assyrian communities in European and Western countries prepared to host them.
Will Assyrians return to their historic homes?
The ecological crisis that pushed many farmers out of the Khabour villages in the early 2000s has only grown worse since the start of the war. In 2021, the construction of several makeshift dams in areas controlled by Turkish-backed groups upstream reduced the river’s flow to a historic low. And even if the water returns, irrigation canals are no longer operational because pumps and iron gates have been looted and water stations damaged during the war.
Combined with military instability, the lack of water makes life in the Khabour villages increasingly difficult. Some observers wonder whether emigration, the “biggest threat faced by Assyrians in northeastern Syria” according to Moushe, can truly be reversed. So why are Assyrian leaders in northeastern Syria so adamant on keeping properties within the community, if more than 90 percent of the Khabour’s pre-war population of 15,000-22,000 has left?
“Today, we face the very real prospect of this community disappearing in Syria. We have a duty to prevent this.”
“It’s true that most Assyrians emigrated,” Borsom acknowledged. “But thousands of them come back every year, staying in their houses for a few months to visit relatives, to take care of their land. If there’s a displaced person in their house, they can no longer keep that connection.” At the same time, displaced newcomers play an essential role in sustaining the rural economy of Tal Tamar. Even before the war, many Assyrian landowners hired Kurdish and Arab day laborers to farm their land, a role now largely filled by the displaced residents of the villages, for whom agricultural work is often the only option available.
Many Assyrians perceive the protection of the Khabour villages as essential to preservation of their community in Syria as a whole. “Our people suffered attempted genocide at the hand of IS,” Borsom said. “Today, we face the very real prospect of this community disappearing in Syria. We have a duty to prevent this, and to give hope to the people who are still living in the area who haven’t left. That includes preserving absentees’ properties, so that one day they can return.”
This return is hoped for by many, but seems increasingly unlikely as years pass and Assyrian refugees build new lives abroad. “Of course, there will be returns through the regular visits of emigrants to Syria,” Fadi Antoine, a member of the CPAP for Hasakah’s Christian community, told Syria Direct. “But permanent returns will not take place unless there’s a political solution to the war, because people have nothing to come back to,” he added.
Between a rock and a hard place
The most pressing concern for Assyrian political leaders and the members of Tal Tamar’s CPAP, they told Syria Direct, is the prolonged presence of displaced people, which they worry could lead to permanent demographic change.
“Our demand to the AANES is to relocate these people, either by expanding existing IDP camps or by creating new ones,” Kariakos of Tal Tamar’s CPAP said.
“Moving people to camps is not a solution.”
But the de facto authorities are stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, the AANES, which was established by a coalition of Kurdish, Arab and Syriac and Assyrian parties, is particularly sensitive to the concerns of minorities who form an important part of its support base beyond the Kurdish population.
The fate of the Khabour villages is a test of its commitment to protect these groups, and the AANES has adopted a “very clear” stance on the issue, according to Karo, of the AANES’ Board of Social Affairs. “We categorically reject any attempt to change the demography of the region, and the AANES will not bring anyone—internally displaced people or others—to live in these villages. We will not do anything to aggravate the original residents’ fear of demographic change.”
But on the other hand, there is no alternative solution in sight for the thousands of displaced people currently living in the Khabour villages. An estimated 413,000 IDPs live in AANES-controlled areas. Many do not live in formal camps, but in informal settlements with limited access to water and electricity. They are less easily reached by humanitarian actors, either because it is easier to funnel the humanitarian response through official camps, or because they live too close to active frontlines.
In 2021, Tal Tamar’s CPAP formally requested that the AANES gradually relocate displaced people living in the Khabour villages. In response, the AANES relocated families living in Qaber Shamiyah, Tal Baloua and Tal Makhada to the Serekaniye camp, Karo said.
But other relocations are unlikely to take place in the near future. “Moving people to camps is not a solution,” Karo said, “They are supposed to get smaller over time, not expand,” and humanitarian funding for northeastern Syria is steadily decreasing.
And newcomers who settled in the Khabour villages, now facing additional displacement, have nowhere to go. “At first we thought our presence in Tal Tamar was temporary, but years passed and we couldn’t go back. So in 2021, we tried to move to Washokani camp to at least get some humanitarian support, but it was too late,” an elderly woman from Ras al-Ain living in Tal Nasri, told Syria Direct. “The camp administration didn’t accept us.”
Like their absent Assyrian hosts, the displaced people now living in Tal Tamar were uprooted by war. They, too, have been chased out of homes and lands they one day hope to return to. But as years pass with no political solution in sight, they are stranded in dire living conditions while relations with their host community sour.
“The only long-term solution is for all Syrians to return to their areas of origin,” Karo said. But as Turkey continues to destroy essential services and choke the Khabour River —once the lifeline of Assyrian villages—the future of the area and its potential rebirth is more uncertain than ever.
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