English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 11/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
But if you had known what this means, “I desire mercy and not sacrifice”, you would not have condemned the guiltless.
Matthew 12/01-14: “At that time Jesus went through the cornfields on the sabbath; his disciples were hungry, and they began to pluck heads of grain and to eat. When the Pharisees saw it, they said to him, ‘Look, your disciples are doing what is not lawful to do on the sabbath. ’He said to them, ‘Have you not read what David did when he and his companions were hungry? He entered the house of God and ate the bread of the Presence, which it was not lawful for him or his companions to eat, but only for the priests. Or have you not read in the law that on the sabbath the priests in the temple break the sabbath and yet are guiltless? I tell you, something greater than the temple is here. But if you had known what this means, “I desire mercy and not sacrifice”, you would not have condemned the guiltless. For the Son of Man is lord of the sabbath.’ He left that place and entered their synagogue; a man was there with a withered hand, and they asked him, ‘Is it lawful to cure on the sabbath? ’ so that they might accuse him. He said to them, ‘Suppose one of you has only one sheep and it falls into a pit on the sabbath; will you not lay hold of it and lift it out?How much more valuable is a human being than a sheep! So it is lawful to do good on the sabbath.’Then he said to the man, ‘Stretch out your hand.’ He stretched it out, and it was restored, as sound as the other. But the Pharisees went out and conspired against him, how to destroy him.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 10-11/2023
KSA strongly opposes Franjieh's bid as Azour's chances surge
Saudi FM: Lebanon needs Lebanese and not Iranian-Saudi rapprochement
Report: FPM, LF won't agree on president as US, KSA press al-Rahi
Sami Gemayel slams Franjieh, says coordination with FPM possible
List of presidential candidates discussed with Bou Najem
Shiite Council congratulates Iran, KSA on diplomatic breakthrough
MP Charbel Masaad storms bank in Sidon
Mawlawi broaches latest developments with Caretaker Information Minister, meets Caretaker Economy Minister
Baissari broaches developments with Beirut Bar Association delegation
Mikati chairs session on activating supply chain security in Lebanon
Mikati discusses Palestinian refugee affairs with Lazzarini, meets World Bank delegation over joint cooperation projects
European Observatory for the Integrity of Lebanon: Banks resumed strike in attempt to avoid returning deposits
UK Ambassador visits Al-Hadi Institute, stresses need for continued cooperation in service of students
Nasrallah: Iranian-Saudi agreement can help but president can't be imposed
Hezbollah leader says Iran-Saudi reconciliation is 'good development'
International absurdity cannot help Lebanon’s failed state/Elie Abouaoun/The Arab Weekly/March 10/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 10-11/2023
Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties after unannounced talks in Beijing
Saudi Arabia making peace with Iran in a deal brokered by China is a 'middle finger to Biden'
US Defense Chief’s Visit to Israel Reveals Divisions on Iran
US Targets ‘Shadow Banking’ Network Helping Iran Evade Sanctions
Head of AEOI: The West Accepts Iran as a ‘Nuclear Country’
Syria’s Aleppo Airport Resumes Flights Days after Airstrike
Ukraine Says Bakhmut Battle Pins Down Russia’s Best Units
Ukraine orders Russian-aligned Orthodox church to leave Kyiv monastery
Zelenskiy leads tributes to revered Ukrainian fighter killed in Bakhmut
Mass Backstabbing Spree Over Putin’s War Sweeps Russia
Canada bans Russian steel, aluminum imports as Joly raises 'regime change' in Moscow
Russia boosting China in nuclear arms race, says Pentagon
Russia's Lavrov: conversation with Blinken at G20 was 'constructive' but US said nothing new
Putin Decree Puts Popular Route Out of Russia Assets on Hold
Israeli Settler Kills Palestinian Who Military Says Was Planning Attack
Israel’s Elite Unit of F-15I “Thunder” Fighters Abort Planned Strike

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 10-11/2023
Question: “Why is justification by faith such an important doctrine?”/GotQuestions.org?/March 10/2023
Biden’s diplomacy without deadlines erodes US-Gulf alliance/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Asia Times/March 10/2023
Israel Could Be Headed for a Cold Civil War/Lloyd Green/The Daily Beast/Fri, March 10, 2023
Three Obstacles in Franjieh’s Path/Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 10/2023
China: Competitor or Enemy?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 10/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 10-11/2023
KSA strongly opposes Franjieh's bid as Azour's chances surge
Naharnet/March 10/2023
As Suleiman Franjieh prepares to hold a press conference to announce his presidential platform and his vision for the controversial files in the country, a “credible figure” told the Nidaa al-Watan daily that Riyad is categorically opposed to Franjieh’s nomination.
“The decisive Saudi rejection closes the door firmly in the face of any possibility for his election as president,” the source added. “The various Lebanese parties that were standing in a gray zone regrading Franjieh’s nomination have sensed this firm Saudi stance and in light of it started rearranging the list of potential candidates,” the source said. The chances of International Monetary Fund official and ex-minister Jihad Azour have meanwhile surged anew, seeing as “he has characteristics that make him capable more than others to create domestic and foreign intersections supportive of his election,” the source added.

Saudi FM: Lebanon needs Lebanese and not Iranian-Saudi rapprochement

Naharnet/March 10/2023
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said Friday that “Lebanon needs Lebanese rapprochement, not Iranian-Saudi rapprochement,” a few hours after Tehran and Riyadh announced a reconciliation agreement. “Lebanon must seek its interest and politicians must put the Lebanese interest before any other interest,” Bin Farhan told Al-Arabiya TV. “When this happens and when a decision is taken in Lebanon to put the Lebanese interest first and work on building the Lebanese state, Lebanon will certainly prosper and the kingdom will be by its side,” the Saudi FM added. Iran and Saudi Arabia had agreed earlier on Friday to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after seven years of tensions. The major diplomatic breakthrough negotiated with China lowers the chance of armed conflict between the Mideast rivals -- both directly and in proxy conflicts around the region. "Removing misunderstandings and the future-oriented views in relations between Tehran and Riyadh will definitely lead to improving regional stability and security,” Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said. Iran long has backed the powerful Lebanese Shiite armed group and political party Hezbollah, while Saudi Arabia has backed the country's Sunni politicians as well as the Christian Lebanese Forces and the Druze Progressive Socialist Party. Easing tensions between Riyadh and Tehran could see the two push for a political reconciliation in Lebanon, which is facing a presidential vacuum and an unprecedented financial meltdown.

Report: FPM, LF won't agree on president as US, KSA press al-Rahi
Naharnet/March 10/2023
The “rift is increasing” among the Christian forces that are opposed to Suleiman Franjieh’s election as president and “their disagreement on the alternative allows the advocates of the ‘third choice’ to work separately from these forces’ agenda,” a media report said.
“It also allows foreign forces to have the upper hand and this is what the contacts of the past hours have showed,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Friday. Separately, the daily said that “the U.S. and Saudi sides have swiftly moved toward Bkirki out of fear that it might voice a stance reflecting serious willingness to discuss Franjieh’s nomination.” “While the Saudis have informed Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi that they do not intend to accept this (Franjieh-for-Nawaf Salam) bargain, the U.S. pressure on al-Rahi was bigger, through an advice that he should not take any stance suggesting that there is a major rift in the Christian community and that he should not meet Franjieh’s supporters halfway,” al-Akhbar added. Informed sources meanwhile told the newspaper that “the Americans have openly expressed that they do not support Franjieh’s nomination,” and that “the U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Dorothy Shea has said that what Speaker Nabih Berri has quoted her as saying in terms of Washington’s non-opposition to Franjieh’s election had been a normal diplomatic answer that is expected from any ambassador.”“The U.S. administration’s stance is opposed to any candidate backed by Hezbollah,” the sources quoted Shea as saying. Al-Akhbar added that “the Saudi and American inflexibility toward the French ideas calling for a presidential-premiership bargain is linked toward negotiations that are underway with sides that have an influence in the Lebanese arena, seeing as Syria and Saudi Arabia are exchanging messages and that Damascus is also communicating with other concerned capitals.”

Sami Gemayel slams Franjieh, says coordination with FPM possible
Naharnet/March 10/2023
Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel who had already vowed to block a presidential vote that would elect Hezbollah's candidate, has said that coordination with the Free Patriotic Movement is possible, on condition that it stops supporting Hezbollah. FPM MP Alain Aoun had also said Thursday that the FPM might agree with the opposition MPs on a presidential candidate. Gemayel, on a televised speech, vowed that al-Kataeb would retaliate against Hezbollah by boycotting a vote that would elect a president who would further isolate Lebanon and destroy institutions. "We are forced to do this to prevent repeating the previous experience," he said. He added that implementing the constitution starts by respecting deadlines. "The presidential vote was supposed to take place 5 months ago," Gemayel said. "The constitution cannot be suspended until the conditions are suitable for the other party." Gemayel went on to say that Hezbollah's candidate Suleiman Franjieh is contradicting himself when he says he will implement the U.N. Resolution 1559 that includes disarming Hezbollah. "How can he belong to the Axis of Defiance and says he is ready to implement Resolution 1559," Gemayel asked. Franjieh will announce next week, in a press conference, his presidential vision, media reports said. He will discuss Hezbollah's arms, and his economic and financial approach to address the crisis through investments.

List of presidential candidates discussed with Bou Najem
Agence France Presse/March 10/2023
L'Orient-Le Jour has managed to obtain a non-final list of potential consensual candidates whose names have been discussed between the Christian leaders and Maronite Arbishop of Antelias Antoine Bou Najem. Here is the list of the candidates who have either announced they were running for president or emerged as potential candidates.
Suleiman Franjieh
Suleiman Franjieh, 57, is a former lawmaker and minister close to Hezbollah and a personal friend of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Like many of Lebanon's prominent political figures, the leader of Marada movement hails from a storied dynasty. His grandfather and namesake was president when Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war broke out. In 1978, his father, politician Tony Franjieh, along with his mother and sister, were murdered by rival Christian fighters while he was elsewhere in the country. He has not officially announced his candidacy, but he told local press he will next week announce his presidential vision. His name had been touted for the presidency many times before but he never secured enough support to win. Hezbollah and Amal have officially nominated Franjieh, although Hezbollah's ally the Free Patriotic Movement would not endorse him.
Michel Mouawad
Michel Mouawad, 50, has close ties to Washington and hails from Zgharta, Franjieh's hometown. His father Rene Mouawad was killed 17 days after being elected president in 1989 and his mother Nayla Mouawad is a former minister and lawmaker. He snatched the support of lawmakers opposed to Hezbollah, gathering around 40 votes out of 128 in past presidential election sessions. He has repeatedly demanded that Hezbollah disarm. But without the support of the Shiite group and its allies, Mouawad's chances of becoming president are slim.
Joseph Aoun
Army chief Joseph Aoun, 58, is on good terms with all sides of the political spectrum, although Hezbollah has criticized him for his close ties to Washington. Naming him would require a constitutional amendment because of his position, but constitutionally parliament cannot legislate and can only convene to elect a president.The commander, who bears no relation to former president Michel Aoun, is widely seen as a compromise candidate that lawmakers could elect if they fail to reach a consensus on their preferred choice.
Should he become president, Aoun would be the fourth former army commander to lead the country since the end of the civil war.
Others
The names of other candidates have also been discussed with Bou Najem, L'Orient-Le Jour said. These include ex-ministers Jihad Azour, Ziad Baroud and Roger Dib, MPs Ibrahim Kanaan and Neemat Frem and former MP Salah Honein. Lebanese Ambassador to Vatican Farid Elias el-Khazen and former Ambassador to Vatican Georges Khoury have also been floated as potential candidates.

Shiite Council congratulates Iran, KSA on diplomatic breakthrough
Naharnet/March 10/2023
Higher Islamic Shiite Council deputy chief Sheikh Ali al-Khatib congratulated Friday Iran and Saudi Arabia over their agreement to resume ties after seven years of tensions, and hoped the reconciliation would reflect positively on Lebanon. Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier on Friday agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies. The major diplomatic breakthrough negotiated with China lowers the chance of armed conflict between the nations — both directly and in proxy conflicts around the region. Al-Khatib Hoped that this diplomatic agreement will "strengthen the Arab-Islamic solidarity" and "reflect positively on the Arab and Islamic countries," especially crisis-hit Lebanon. The deal, struck in Beijing this week amid its ceremonial National People’s Congress, represents a major diplomatic victory for the Chinese as Gulf Arab states perceive the United States slowly withdrawing from the wider Middle East. It also comes as diplomats have been trying to end a yearslong war in Yemen, a conflict in which both Iran and Saudi Arabia are deeply entrenched. Tensions have been high between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The kingdom broke off ties with Iran in 2016 after protesters invaded Saudi diplomatic posts there. Saudi Arabia had executed a prominent Shiite cleric days earlier, triggering the demonstrations.

MP Charbel Masaad storms bank in Sidon
Naharnet/March 10/2023
Independent MP Charbel Masaad on Friday stormed a bank in the southern city of Sidon to demand that a depositor be paid his money in cash, the state-run National News Agency reported. The lawmaker, who is still inside the bank, held “banks, the banking system and the central bank governor responsible for people’s suicide,” NNA added. The Association of Banks in Lebanon announced Thursday that the country’s banks will resume their open-ended strike on Tuesday, March 14, decrying recent judicial rulings. The banks had suspended their strike on February 24 at the request of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. The strike began on Feb. 7 in protest of a recent court ruling that forced one of the country's largest banks to pay out two of its depositors their trapped savings in cash. Lebanon's banks have been hard hit by the country's historic economic meltdown that began in October 2019 and have since imposed informal capital controls under which depositors have been able to withdraw only small amounts of their savings at an exchange rate far lower than the one used on the market. The economic crisis -- rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by the country's political class -- has left more than three quarters of Lebanon's population of 6 million in poverty. The Lebanese pound has lost 97% of its value against the dollar. The informal capital controls have prompted some overseas depositors, locked out of their savings, to launch lawsuits overseas and in Lebanon to pressure banks to release their savings in full. In Lebanon, some depositors opted to break into banks, armed, and forced cashiers to hand over their money. Several such armed actions last year prompted the banks to go on strike in September 2022 and close down amid security fears for a week. In mid-February, angry Lebanese smashed windows and set tires on fire outside two of the country's biggest banks in the capital, Beirut, as the value of the Lebanese pound hit a new low. Banks have meanwhile refused attempts to make their shareholders assume responsibility for the crisis -- as envisaged under a proposed economic recovery plan -- and have insisted that the government and their own depositors share the biggest burden for the losses.

Mawlawi broaches latest developments with Caretaker Information Minister, meets Caretaker Economy Minister
NNA/March 10/2023
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, on Friday received in his office at the ministry, Caretaker Economy and Trade Minister, Amin Salam, accompanied by Economy Ministry’s Director General Mohammed Abou Haidar.
Discussions touched on generators' sector's related issues. Caretaker Minister Mawlawi also welcomed Caretaker Minister of Information, Ziad Makary, with whom he discussed the current general situation and the latest political developments, in light of imminent constitutional junctures.

Baissari broaches developments with Beirut Bar Association delegation
NNA/March 10/2023
Acting Director General of General Security, Brigadier General Elias Baissari, on Friday received in his office a delegation of the Beirut Bar Association, headed by Dean Nader Gaspard. Discussions reportedly touched on the current local developments and issues of mutual concern between the Syndicate and the General Security General Directorate.

Mikati chairs session on activating supply chain security in Lebanon
NNA/March 10/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Friday said that "Lebanon's relations with many countries, especially the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, have been shaken in recent years, which made Lebanon pay a heavy price.”Moreover, Mikati reaffirmed Lebanon’s commitment to protect its security and that of friendly countries, in particular the security of the KSA. The Prime Minister’s words came during a roundtable discussion on activating supply chain security in Lebanon, as part of the government's plan to combat drug trafficking and smuggling through ports. The meeting was held at the Grand Serail and was organized by the Lebanese government, and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime UNODC.

Mikati discusses Palestinian refugee affairs with Lazzarini, meets World Bank delegation over joint cooperation projects
NNA/March 10/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Friday received at the Grand Serail, UNRWA Commissioner General, Philippe Lazzarini, accompanied by UNRWA’s new director in Lebanon, Dorothy Klaus. The meeting was attended by Chairman of the Lebanese Palestinian Dialogue Committee (LPDC) Bassel Al Hassan, and Premier Mikati’s Advisors Ambassador Boutros Assaker and Ziad Mikati. Discussions reportedly touched on UNRWA’s situation in Lebanon and the need to support it, in addition to the joint support for the strategy of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee.
On emerging, Lazzarini said that they discussed the condition of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, as well as the national plan to improve the situation of Palestinian refugees and camps in Lebanon. On the other hand, Premier Mikati met at the Grand Serail with a delegation of the World Bank, including World Bank vice-president for the Middle East and North Africa, Ferid Balhaj, and the WB's Regional Director for the Middle East, Jean-Christophe Carret, in the presence of Mikati’s Advisors former Minister Nicholas Nahhas and Samir Daher. Discussions reportedly touched on joint cooperation projects.

European Observatory for the Integrity of Lebanon: Banks resumed strike in attempt to avoid returning deposits
NNA/March 10/2023
The European Observatory for the Integrity of Lebanon on Friday confirmed in a statement that "banks have resumed their strike in order to avoid returning deposits and bearing the losses of depositors,” stressing that "going to court is the only way to get the deposits back.”The statement further stressed that hints at “rescheduling deposits” are “dangerous", calling on banks to "apply the law by lifting banking secrecy and responding to the court's request to hand over documents — as part of an investigation over money laundering operations."

UK Ambassador visits Al-Hadi Institute, stresses need for continued cooperation in service of students
NNA/March 10/2023
British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, on Friday visited Al-Hadi Institute for Deaf, Blind, and Learning Disabilities accompanied by a delegation from the UK Embassy, the British Council, as well as one-day ambassador, Jennifer Raidy. After a reception prepared by the Institute, the delegation toured the school and its health departments. Cowell praised the services provided by the institute to students with disabilities, expressing his deep appreciation for "the efforts exerted by the administration and its team." The British diplomat stressed "the need for continued cooperation between the UK Embassy, the British Council, and Al-Hadi Institute in the service of students."

Nasrallah: Iranian-Saudi agreement can help but president can't be imposed
Naharnet/March 10/2023
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday called for dialogue over Lebanon’s presidential crisis and said an Iranian-Saudi reconciliation announced earlier in the day “can only help” in the file but that no candidates can be “imposed.”“We welcome any foreign assistance but we do not accept dictations,” Nasrallah said in a televised address. “The Iranian-Saudi agreement can only help in the presidential file, but no candidates can be imposed,” he added. Commenting on Hezbollah’s recent nomination of Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency, Nasrallah said what his party has done is “natural and legal.” “We have called for dialogue over the president and no one has the right to prevent anyone from nominating anyone,” Nasrallah added. “Some claimed that we want to impose a president on the Lebanese and Christians, but this is not the case,” he said."If a country helps Lebanon, that does not grant it the right to impose a president," Nasrallah emphasized. He also described the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation as a “good development” while noting that it “will not be at the expense of the region's peoples.”Separately, Nasrallah said that what happens in Syria and Palestine has a strong impact on neighboring Lebanon.
“Speaking about the present and future of Syria is like speaking about the present and future of Lebanon,” Nasrallah noted. Addressing Lebanese rivals, Nasrallah added: “The Arab world also includes Syria and Palestine, not only the Arab Gulf.” “Had Syria fallen into the hands of Daesh, al-Nusra and the terrorists in the global war, what would have been the position of Lebanon and its people?” Nasrallah said, addressing the Lebanese. “Everything that happens in Palestine affects our country, its sovereignty and its future,” he added.
“Imagine if Israel was strong and could impose its will on the entire region. Would the Lebanese have dreamed of oil and gas?” Nasrallah said. Moreover, Nasrallah said that it is not true that Syria will “leave the Axis of Resistance” in order to “join the Arab fold,” commenting on the latest diplomatic overtures. “Syria is at the heart of the Axis of Resistance,” he stressed.


Hezbollah leader says Iran-Saudi reconciliation is 'good development'
BEIRUT (Reuters)/Fri, March 10, 2023
The head of Lebanon's powerful armed group Hezbollah said on Friday the resumption of ties between its backer Iran and longtime rival Saudi Arabia was a "good development". Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed on Friday to re-establish relations after years of hostility, which had threatened stability in the Gulf and prompted frequent political disputes in Lebanon. "This is a good development," said Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in a televised address on Friday. "We have complete confidence that this will not come at our expense." Nasrallah cautioned that the full implications of the step were not yet known but said it was "happy". "It's an important development, of course, and if it proceeds in its natural course it could open up horizons in the entire region, including in Lebanon," he added. Hezbollah was established in Lebanon by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982 and is a key part of Tehran's regional alliance. Nasrallah last year accused Saudi's king of terrorism, in the midst of one of the deepest political crises between Gulf Arab states and Lebanon. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia had called on Lebanon to end "terrorist Hebzollah's" influence over the state. Saudi Arabia and a number of other Gulf Arab states withdrew their ambassadors and expelled Lebanese envoys in late 2021 over what the kingdom later said was arch-foe Hezbollah's dominance of the Lebanese state. The ambassadors returned in the spring of 2022. Nasrallah said on Friday his party was also happy to see increased Arab engagement with Syria's government following the devastating Feb. 6 earthquakes that left thousands dead in neighbouring Syria. Syria has been largely isolated by the Arab world following its crackdown against protests more than a decade ago but its President Bashar al-Assad has seen an outpouring of support from Arab states following the quakes.


د. ايلي أبو عون: الإسبوع العربي: العبثية الدولية لا تقدر أن تساعد دولة لبنان الفاشلة
International absurdity cannot help Lebanon’s failed state
Elie Abouaoun/The Arab Weekly/March 10/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116443/116443/

There is an absolute political and moral imperative to protect the Lebanese civilian population, through concrete action such as individual sanctions, from the acts of its own political and business elite.
Multidimensional poverty in Lebanon rose from 53% (pre-2019) to 82% in 2019, because of what the World Bank described as a deliberate depression orchestrated by the country’s elite and one of the top three most severe economic collapses worldwide since the 1850s.
Moreover, it has been more than two years during which this same elite has obstructed the investigation into one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in recent history that killed more than 200 people, injured 7,000 and caused an estimated $15 billion of damage. Yet, all the while the international community continues with a criminal “softly-softly” approach towards Lebanon.
Holding the community of nations solely responsible for Lebanon’s mess is not only unfair, but essentially preposterous. It is clear by now that some Lebanese citizens easily qualify as perpetrators, while the rest are either unwilling or unfit to be part of a solution, are held hostage by the current elite, or just idle babblers, too politically immature to conceive and execute a way out of the quagmire.
Despite the absence of a precise legal definition of a “failed state”, along with the controversy over the term's usage, the concept has become, since it emerged in the 1990’s, increasingly important in international law, as it can have significant implications for international security and humanitarian intervention. It usually refers to a state that has lost effective control over its territory, government and population and is unable to provide basic services, maintain law and order and protect its citizens' rights and freedoms.
Overtime, frameworks for identifying and dealing with failed states have been developed by international organisations capturing various buckets of state failure indicators, most of which do apply to Lebanon.
With the largest number of refugees per capita, Lebanon is a country with significant demographic pressure, human flight and brain drain as well as collective social grievances. The country faces increasing poverty and continuous economic decline, along with eroded state legitimacy and dwindling public services, as well as a poor record on human rights and the rule of law. The factionalised security apparatus is unable to deter crime, protect the public and does not possess a monopoly on the use of force.
Most of the liquid assets of the population are stuck in a barely-functioning banking system and thus not accessible, while the country has defaulted on its sovereign debt since March 2020. After the end of the presidential mandate in October 2022 and the failure of the parliament to elect a successor to the outgoing President Michel Aoun, the caretaker government remains paralysed due to political bickering and constitutional ambiguity about the legality of its meetings. Until a new president is elected, besides executive power being incapacitated, the parliament’s activity is restricted by the constitution to being simply an “electoral college”, thus depriving the country of much-needed legislative and oversight activity.
Lebanon’s judiciary has always been instrumentalised by the political and business elites. However, the implosion within the criminal justice system in the last few months is unprecedented, not even under the Syrian occupation of Lebanon between 1990 and 2005. Various rankings show Lebanon as one of the most corrupt 30 countries in the world. With a severely deficient regulatory framework for judicial accountability, Lebanon faces the consequences of decades of compounded impunity.
In brief, Lebanon is a country with endemic corruption, dysfunctional legislative, executive and judiciary powers, where services are hardly accessible and poverty rates are alarming. Since protecting its people is a fundamental part of the exercise of the national sovereignty of a state, it is clear that the Lebanese authorities do not have the political will nor the ability to fulfil this critical mission. Nevertheless, the international community has failed to target the country’s criminal political elite beyond mere rhetoric and sporadic empty threats of individual sanctions that were never put into action, with rare exceptions.
Long gone is the time when a similar situation would have been considered by world powers as sufficiently alarming to enact the “responsibility to protect” principle and bring about some sort of international tutelage over a given country. Lebanon may not be as fortunate as Namibia (1968), Cambodia (1992), East Croatia (1996), Kosovo (1999) or East Timor (1999) and it may be too naïve to expect a revival of the inert UN Trusteeship Council mechanism, inactive since 1994.
Some Lebanon pundits have even been contemplating, for a while now, a possible match between what is happening in Lebanon and the international legal definition of “genocide’ or “crimes against humanity”. Legal experts generally concur that characterising the events in Lebanon as an “atrocity” as defined in international law is somehow fanciful from a purely legalistic perspective.
However, the normative framework of the “responsibility to protect” requires all states to protect another state’s own people when their government is incapable or unwilling to do so. The Canadian International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS) challenged the absolute nature of state sovereignty, looking at the state along with sovereignty not as the absolute sum of its parts, but as conditional upon the fulfilment of obligations toward all of its parts. Furthermore, ICISS stated that the notion of sovereignty is conditional upon the security of populations. This concept, labelled as “state-centred” sovereignty assumes the state does and will continue to represent the will of its people and that the will of all its people is respected, either through some sort of special representation or benevolent rule, or for an agreed-upon democratic arrangement.
Practically speaking, the current geopolitical realities and constraints of the international community do not allow for Lebanon to be treated as a “failed state” nor putting it under international tutelage. However, there is no political nor moral justification for abandoning the Lebanese population to a fateful destiny. The question is therefore whether there could be other measures that would protect the Lebanese population from its own political and business elite, even though this same elite has been embraced by part of the population.
A range of measures, such as visa and travel bans, assets freeze, diplomatic boycotts and others, has been applied to identify and sanction corrupt individuals or organisations in the world. Obviously, the impact of these measures depends on the context and timing. But given Lebanon’s gradual collapse and even though not every measure will lead to the desired outcome, it is certainly relevant to apply some of them. This is especially so, since Lebanon’s elites are known to be quite transactional and obsessed with preserving whatever benefits they have access to. Moreover, the majority of these perpetrators continues to enjoy freedom of movement and owns real estate and business organisations in several EU countries, the US, Canada, Australia and other locations.
Most of the sanction regimes in these countries include, amongst other criteria, provisions to sanction individuals responsible for, or complicit in, gross violations of internationally-recognised human rights (such as obstructing justice in the port explosion case) or those responsible for, or complicit in, acts of corruption including bribery, misappropriation of private or public assets for personal gain or other acts of corruption.
When asked about why their countries continue a “business as usual” approach with Lebanon’s political and business elites, some Western diplomats mention the current power dynamics in the world and how impossible it is to get a UN Security Council resolution voted without being vetoed by one of the P5, or an EU resolution that requires unanimity among the 27 member states.
What these and others do not mention though is why their own governments continue to give agency to perpetrators, do not impose travel bans, diplomatic boycotts and other financial sanctions on Lebanese politicians and corrupt business elites, known to be quite mercantilist, as stipulated in their own national legislation. What else needs to happen before the international community recognises that even though Lebanon’s predicament is mostly self-inflicted, its approach to the country is absurd and that there is an absolute political and moral imperative to protect the Lebanese civilian population, through concrete action such as individual sanctions, from the acts of its own political and business elite?
*Dr Elie Abouaoun is the director of North Africa Programmes and Regional Hub at the United States Institute of Peace.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 10-11/2023
Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties after unannounced talks in Beijing
The Arab Weekly/March 10/2023
Tehran and Riyadh agreed “to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months”, according to a statement issued by Iran, Saudi Arabia and China.
Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed on Friday to re-establish relations after seven years of hostility which had threatened stability and security in the Gulf and helped fuel conflicts in the Middle East from Yemen to Syria. The deal, struck in Beijing amid its ceremonial National People’s Congress, represents a major diplomatic victory for the Chinese as Gulf Arab states perceive the United States slowly withdrawing from the wider Middle East. It also comes as diplomats have been trying to end a years-long war in Yemen, a conflict in which both Iran and Saudi Arabia are deeply entrenched. The agreement was announced after four days of previously undisclosed talks in Beijing between top security officials from the two rival Middle East powers. Tehran and Riyadh agreed “to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months”, according to a statement issued by Iran, Saudi Arabia and China. “The agreement includes their affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states and the non-interference in internal affairs.”In Friday’s agreement, Saudi Arabia and Iran also agreed to activate a security cooperation agreement signed in 2001, as well as another earlier accord on trade, economy and investment. Both countries thanked China, as well as Iraq and Oman for hosting earlier talks in 2021 and 2022. In Friday's statement, Iran and Saudi Arabia said they "thank the Republic of Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman for hosting the talks held between the two sides in 2021 and 2022 as well as the leaders and government of the People's Republic of China for hosting and supporting the talks held in that country.""The three countries expressed their keenness to exert all efforts towards enhancing regional and international peace and security," they said. The agreement was signed by Iran’s top security official, Ali Shamkhani and Saudi Arabia’s national security adviser Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban. China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A White House national security spokesman said the United States was aware of reports of the agreement and welcomed any efforts to help end war in Yemen and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that normalising relations offered great prospects for both countries and for the Middle East, and hinted at further steps. “The neighbourhood policy, as the key axis of the Iranian government's foreign policy, is strongly moving in the right direction and the diplomatic apparatus is actively behind the preparation of more regional steps,” Amir-Abdollahian tweeted. A senior Iranian security official said Friday’s agreement had been endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Saudi Arabia making peace with Iran in a deal brokered by China is a 'middle finger to Biden'
John Haltiwanger/Business Insider/March 10, 2023
Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China. A former US diplomat says the move is a "middle finger to Biden." China and Iran are top US adversaries. The deal signals Beijing's rising influence in the region.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have restored ties with the help of China, agreeing to reopen embassies in their respective capitals, in a move that appears to signal the US's waning influence in the region. Tehran and Riyadh are historic rivals, and both have fueled a devastating eight-year war in Yemen as they've vied for greater influence in the Middle East. The Saudi and Iranian governments reestablishing diplomatic ties lowers the temperature in the region and raises hopes that their proxy war in Yemen will come to an end. At the same time, the deal amounts to a slap in the face to the Biden administration. It's a sign that the Saudi government, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is willing to increase ties with US adversaries, and could have major implications for the future of the region. "Stunning at a time when US-Chinese ties are at an all time low and US-Iranian tensions rising that MBS does a deal that boosts Beijing and legitimizes Tehran. It's a middle finger to Biden and a practical calculation of Saudi interests," Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat who advised multiple secretaries of state on the Middle East, said in a tweet. The move is also indicative of China's growing influence in the Middle East after decades of US dominance in the region largely catalyzed by the war on terror. "The fact that China brokered the deal is significant," Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said on Twitter. "It shows the role that China could play in fostering a Middle East defined more by cooperation and trade and less by conflict and weapons sales, as has been the norm under US dominance." The US and Saudi Arabia have a close relationship and have been security partners for years. But relations between the two countries have soured since the brutal 2018 murder of Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which led many in Washington to call for a reassessment of US-Saudi relations. President Joe Biden on the campaign trail pledged to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" over Khashoggi's killing, and in 2021 his administration released a declassified intelligence report that explicitly implicated the crown prince — often referred to as MBS — in the murder. But Biden faced criticism last year when he visited Saudi Arabia and met with MBS at a time when his administration was pushing Riyadh to increase oil production amid shortages linked to the war in Ukraine that drove gas prices higher for American consumers. Saudi Arabia ultimately moved to cut oil production instead, which was viewed as a diplomatic embarrassment for the Biden administration and sparked outrage in Congress.
The deal also comes as the US contends with historic tensions with both Iran and China. Biden entered office vowing to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, but the landmark pact is effectively defunct and Tehran's nuclear ambitions continue to raise concerns in Washington and beyond. Meanwhile, relations between China and the US have hit their lowest point in decades, with Beijing and Washington butting heads on a wide array of major issues — with Taiwan at the top of the list. The agreement also has the potential to throw a wrench in efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, given the latter and Iran are longtime enemies. Israel has appeared to suggest it could take military action against Iran over its accelerating nuclear program, particularly after UN experts recently said Tehran has enriched uranium to 84% — close to weapons-grade levels of 90%. Iran last month blamed Israel for a drone attack on one of its military facilities, and warned that it could respond "wherever and whenever deemed necessary."

US Defense Chief’s Visit to Israel Reveals Divisions on Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 March, 2023
Long-running differences between the Biden administration and Israel over how to stop Iran’s rapidly accelerating nuclear program spilled into public view Thursday, as the US defense secretary discussed Tehran's nuclear ambitions with his Israeli counterpart during a visit to the country. Even with efforts to revive the landmark 2015 nuclear deal stalled for months, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin insisted in comments in Tel Aviv that “diplomacy is the best way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.”Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made no mention of the moribund nuclear talks, instead telling Austin: “We must take all measures necessary to prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon.” He appeared to suggest that Israel could resort to military action to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. “The Iranian nuclear threat requires us to be prepared for every course of action,” Gallant said and repeated twice for emphasis.
The distinction between their statements revealed the countries’ different approaches to Iran. With Biden as his vice president, then-President Barack Obama spearheaded the 2015 nuclear accord, which gave Iran relief from economic sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bitterly opposed the deal, saying it did not contain sufficient safeguards and did not address non-nuclear Iranian aggression in the region. After former President Donald Trump abandoned the atomic accord and imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, Tehran gradually increased its uranium enrichment, expanded its stockpiles of enriched uranium and developed advanced centrifuges. UN experts say Iran has enriched uranium to 84% purity, just short of weapons grade, though they say Iran is still months away from the ability to build a weapon.
Biden took office pledging that the United States would rejoin the 2015 nuclear accord and lift sanctions on Iran if Tehran complied with the deal's strict limits on its nuclear program. But attempts to revive the accord have failed. Israel, meanwhile, has engaged in a yearslong shadow war with its archenemy Iran that has spilled out across the wider Middle East. Since returning to office late last year, Netanyahu has openly advocated military action against Iran. Seeking to roll back Iran's regional entrenchment and slow its ability to enrich nuclear fuel, Israel is believed to have conducted a series of covert sabotage and targeted killing operations. “We must do everything in our power to ensure that the dreams of the mullahs are never fulfilled at any cost,” Gallant said. American and European officials have indicated that attempts to revive the nuclear deal have been effectively suspended in the wake of Tehran’s violent crackdown on nationwide protests and its selling of armed drones to Russia that have been used in Moscow's war against Ukraine — a decision that has allowed Iran to access “unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles and air defense" from Russia, Austin alleged. Russia's war on Ukraine also exposed stubborn differences between the two close allies. Although Israel has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, it has refused Kyiv’s frequent requests to send air defense systems and other weapons. It also has refrained from enforcing strict economic sanctions for fear of damaging its vital relations with Moscow. For years, Russia and Israel have enjoyed good working relations and closely coordinated to avoid run-ins in the skies over Syria, Israel’s northeastern neighbor, where Russian air power has propped up embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad. Austin on Thursday appeared to urge Israel to do more to back Ukraine in the grinding war, noting the increasingly close military ties between Iran and Russia. “We're calling on all of our allies and partners to step up now, at this hinge moment in history,” he said. “Nations of good will, and especially our fellow democracies, must all urgently do their part to help Ukraine fight for its freedom.”When asked by a reporter what it would take for Israel to give Ukraine military aid, Gallant was vague. “We are doing our best,” he said. “We are doing it with the understanding of Israeli interests in the region.”

US Targets ‘Shadow Banking’ Network Helping Iran Evade Sanctions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 March, 2023
The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on 39 entities, including many based in Hong Kong, that Washington said facilitate Iran's access to the global financial system, describing them as a "shadow banking" network that moves billions of dollars.
The US Treasury Department in a statement said those targeted had granted companies previously slapped with Iran-related sanctions, such as Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industry Commercial Co (PGPICC) and Triliance Petrochemical Co Ltd, access to the international financial system and helped them hide their trade with foreign customers. The latest US move against Iran comes as efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal have stalled, while ties between Tehran and the West have become increasingly strained as Iranians keep up anti-government protests. Washington has targeted Chinese companies over the export of Iran's petrochemicals as the prospects of reviving the nuclear pact have dimmed. "Iran cultivates complex sanctions evasion networks where foreign buyers, exchange houses, and dozens of front companies cooperatively help sanctioned Iranian companies to continue to trade," said Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo. He said the new measures showed the US commitment to enforcing sanctions and its "ability to disrupt Iran's foreign financial networks, which it uses to launder funds."Liu Pengyu, spokesman for China's embassy in Washington said the US actions had no basis in international law and were "typical unilateral sanctions and illegal 'long-arm jurisdiction'" that were detrimental to Chinese interests. "We deplore and reject this move," he said, adding China had "actively promoted peace talks and sought a political solution" in Ukraine, while the United States "has been fanning the flame and fueling the fight with more weaponry."
Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Thursday's move freezes any US assets of those designated and generally bars Americans from dealing with them. Those that engage in certain transactions with them also risk being hit by sanctions. The Treasury accused companies operating out of Hong Kong - including Foraben Trading Limited, Hongkong Well International Trading Limited, and Salita Trade Limited - of transferring millions of dollars related to petrochemical sales to China. The Treasury Department's top sanctions official, Brian Nelson, recently visited Türkiye to warn that Washington will continue to aggressively enforce its sanctions. Among those designated on Thursday were two Türkiye-based entities, as well as Iran-based Mehr Petrochemical Company. Brian O'Toole, a former Treasury Department official, said Thursday's action would put a dent in Iran's ability to keep moving oil and get paid for it. "This is a pretty big deal, because this kind of thing should have an impact on what Iran is able to sell," O'Toole said.

Head of AEOI: The West Accepts Iran as a ‘Nuclear Country’
Vienna - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 March, 2023
The West has accepted Iran as a nuclear country and its only option in dealing with Iran is diplomacy, the IRGC's Tasnim news agency quoted the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, as saying. Mohsen Naziri Asl, Iran’s representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said Wednesday that his country was willing to cooperate over its atomic program, even as western powers slammed a “dangerous nuclear escalation”. In a weekend trip, IAEA head Rafael Grossi received Iranian “assurances” on its intentions following the discovery of uranium particles enriched to near weapons-grade level. “There are many things to do in the coming weeks and months toward addressing issues of common interest, for that Iran is very much willing to work with Rafael Grossi,” Naziri Asl told AFP. “We should avoid confrontation and rather work very responsibly together,” he added. He declined to give details, including on Grossi’s announcement that surveillance cameras at several nuclear sites would be reconnected. In a statement to the IAEA board of governors meeting this week, France, Germany, and the UK spoke of Iran’s “unabated and dangerous nuclear escalation.”“This unprecedented enrichment at up to 83.7 percent is an extremely grave escalation,” they said. The US also called the discovery of the particles “an alarming development” with 83.7 percent being just under the 90 percent needed to produce an atomic bomb. “Iran must ensure that such an incident never occurs again,” said Laura Holgate, the US Ambassador to the IAEA.

Syria’s Aleppo Airport Resumes Flights Days after Airstrike
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 March, 2023
Flights at Syria’s international airport in Aleppo resumed Friday, three days after it was put out of service by a suspected Israeli airstrike, the country’s head of civil aviation said. Bassem Mansour told the pro-government Sham FM radio station that flights to and from the airport of Syria’s largest city resumed Friday morning after repairs were completed. The suspected Israeli airstrike early Tuesday left multiple craters on the airport runway, satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press showed Thursday. Since the Feb. 6 earthquake that hit Türkiye and Syria killing more than 50,000 people, including over 6,000 in Syria, the airport has been a main entry point for jets carrying aid into the war-ton country. Authorities said after the strike that relief flights had been diverted to airports in Damascus and Latakia. The attack on Aleppo airport comes after Israel struck the airfield as part of an Israeli campaign to disrupt Iranian weapons transfers into Syria for Iran-backed groups — including Lebanon's Hezbollah. Those attacks have continued despite ongoing political turmoil in Israel and as Iran’s nuclear program edges closer to enriching weapons-grade levels of uranium. Negotiations to limit Iran's nuclear capability have fallen apart. Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets inside government-controlled parts of Syria in recent years, including attacks on the Damascus and Aleppo airports, but it rarely acknowledges or discusses the operations. Aleppo’s airport is a dual-use facility that includes civilian and military sides. Iran has been key in arming and supporting President Bashar Assad in his country’s long civil war. On Wednesday, El-Mostafa Benlamlih, a UN official overseeing relief efforts in Syria, asked that “all feasible precautions” be taken “to spare civilians and civilian objects in the conduct of hostilities.”

Ukraine Says Bakhmut Battle Pins Down Russia’s Best Units
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 March, 2023
Ukraine has decided to fight on in the ruined city of Bakhmut because the battle there is pinning down Russia's best units and degrading them ahead of a planned Ukrainian spring counter-offensive, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. The comments, by Mykhailo Podolyak, were the latest signal of a shift by Kyiv this week to continue the defense of the small eastern city, site of the war's bloodiest battle as Moscow tries to secure its first victory in more than half a year. "Russia has changed tactics," Podolyak said in an interview published by Italy's La Stampa newspaper. "It has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies." "We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive. So, today Bakhmut is completely effective, even exceeding its key tasks."Russia has made Bakhmut the main target of a winter offensive involving hundreds of thousands of reservists and mercenaries. It has succeeded in capturing the eastern part of the city and the outskirts to the north and south, but has so far failed to close a ring around Ukrainian defenders there. Kyiv, which had seemed at the start of March to be planning to withdraw to positions west of the city, announced at the start of this week that its generals had decided to reinforce its troops in Bakhmut and fight on. In a morning update, the Ukrainian general staff reported a large number of attacks along the front and said "the enemy is not halting its attacks on Bakhmut". Moscow says capturing Bakhmut would be a step towards capturing all of Ukraine's Donbas industrial region, a major objective. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday seizing the city would punch a hole in Ukrainian defenses and let Moscow advance deeper. The intense trench warfare, described by both sides as a meat grinder, has led to huge losses. But Kyiv's decision to stay and fight rather than withdraw was a sign it believes Russia's losses are far worse than its own.
Moscow short of missiles?
After making gains throughout the second half of 2022, Ukrainian forces have been mostly on the defensive since mid-November, while Russia has gone on the attack with troops called up in its first mobilization since World War Two. But apart from around Bakhmut, the Russian winter offensive has largely failed. Meanwhile, Kyiv is awaiting a surge in Western military aid expected in coming months for an offensive once muddy ground dries in late spring. Kyiv and the West also saw signs of exhaustion in Russia's latest mass salvo of missile strikes on Ukrainian targets. Russia fired hundreds of millions of dollars worth of missiles across Ukraine on Thursday, including an unprecedented six of its hypersonic kinzhal missiles, touted as a superweapon for which NATO has no answer. It is only believed to possess a few dozen kinzhals. The barrage killed civilians, including a family buried under rubble while they slept in their homes near Lviv, 700 km from the battlefield. But otherwise, it appeared to have achieved little, with damaged power systems mostly quickly restored. The worst damage appears to have been in the eastern city of Kharkiv, where the regional governor said around 500,000 people were still without power on Friday morning. It had been three weeks since the last similar Russian attack, the longest lull since such strikes began in October. Previously, Moscow had been unleashing such attacks roughly every week, challenging Ukraine's ability to repair infrastructure before the next onslaught. Britain's ministry of defense said on Friday the reason for the longer lull was probably that Moscow was running out of missiles and now had to wait between barrages for its factories to produce them. "The interval between waves of strikes is probably growing because Russia now needs to stockpile a critical mass of newly produced missiles directly from industry before it can resource a strike big enough to credibly overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses," it said.

Ukraine orders Russian-aligned Orthodox church to leave Kyiv monastery
(Reuters)/Fri, March 10, 2023
Ukrainian officials on Friday ordered a historically Russian-aligned wing of the Orthodox Church to leave a monastery complex in Kyiv where it is based, the latest move against a denomination regarded with deep suspicion by the government. Kyiv is cracking down on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) - which accepted the authority of the patriarch of Moscow until after Russia launched its full-scale invasion last year - on grounds that it is pro-Russian and collaborating with Moscow. The Moscow patriarch, Kirill, has strongly backed the invasion. The UOC says it has severed its ties with Russia and the Moscow patriarchate, and is the victim of a political witch hunt. The Ukrainian culture ministry said the UOC had been ordered to leave the 980-year-old Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra monastery complex, where it has its headquarters. In a statement, it said a probe had revealed the UOC "violated the terms of the agreement regarding the use of state property", but did not give any details. The UOC, which has until March 29 to leave, said in a Facebook post that the results of the probe were "obviously biased and grossly violate legal norms". Since October, the Security Service of Ukraine has regularly carried out searches at UOC churches, imposed sanctions on its bishops and financial backers, and opened criminal cases against dozens of its clergymen. Authorities said they had found pro-Russian literature on church premises, and Russian citizens being harboured there, allegations the UOC denied. Most Ukrainian Orthodox believers belong to a separate branch of the faith, the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, formed four years ago by uniting branches independent of Moscow's authority.

Zelenskiy leads tributes to revered Ukrainian fighter killed in Bakhmut
KYIV (Reuters)/Fri, March 10, 2023
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy led tributes on Friday to Dmytro Kotsiubailo, a renowned commander known as "Da Vinci" who won public affection for committing his entire adult life to fighting Russia and its proxies. The 27-year-old, whose unit is called Da Vinci's Wolves, was killed this week in Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city that has since August experienced the deadliest fighting of the war and remains fiercely contested. Zelenskiy appeared with the visiting Finnish prime minister, Sanna Marin, at the ornate, golden-domed St. Michael's Cathedral in central Kyiv to lay flowers on Kotsiubailo's coffin. "It hurts to lose our heroes. Brave, courageous, strong. Loyal to themselves and to the state," Zelenskiy said on the Telegram app. "I handed over to Oksana Kotsiubailo, Da Vinci's mother, the Cross of Military Merit, which her son was posthumously awarded. We will never forget. And we will always be grateful." Later, hundreds of people gathered in the nearby Independence Square, a symbol of Ukraine's attempts to prise itself from Russia's sphere of influence and move closer to the European Union. Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov and General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, head of Ukraine's armed forces, were among the dignitaries to pay their respects on the square. Kotsiubailo was made a "Hero of Ukraine" by Zelenskiy in 2022, before Russia's full-scale invasion, for his role in fighting pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine since the start of the armed conflict in 2014. Linked with the right-wing movement Right Sector, he is one of several figures from nationalist groups, some of which took part in a 2014 uprising that toppled Ukraine's pro-Russian president, whose reputations have grown in the past year. Critics say the groups' radicalism and history of violence have helped Russian media to portray them as "neo-Nazis" who threaten Russian-speakers living in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has justified his invasion by saying it is the only way to rid Ukraine of "neo-Nazis" backed by Western allies bent on destroying Russia.
Kyiv and Western leaders dismiss such claims, and describe Europe's worst conflict since World War Two as a land grab that is destined to fail. In Russia, pro-Kremlin commentators and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group whose fighters have been leading the charge in Bakhmut, celebrated Kotsiubailo's death.

Mass Backstabbing Spree Over Putin’s War Sweeps Russia

Noor Ibrahim/The Daily Beast/Fri, March 10, 2023
Russian citizens are ratting each other out to authorities in droves for anti-war comments made in bars, beauty salons, and grocery stores in roughly a dozen cities across the country, according to a new report from the independent Russian news outlet Vrestka.
Legal filings obtained by the outlet from Moscow, Bryansk, Novosibirsk, and other cities indicate that citizens have been turned in for “violations” as minor as cracking a joke about the war, listening to Ukrainian music, or even just talking about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion in a public space.
Many of those jailed after being reported by other citizens were charged under Article 20.3.3 of the Code of Administrative Offenses of the Russian Federation, a new law signed by Putin last year criminalizing “public actions aimed at discrediting” Russian Armed Forces. One Russian man from Bryansk, Mikhail Kolokolnikov, was reportedly fined and jailed for two days after a stranger called authorities on him for saying the phrase “Glory to Ukraine” at a bar on Jan. 15. In an interview with Vrestka, Kolokolniko said that two officers stormed the bar shortly after he said the phrase to another man, demanding to know, “Who said ‘Glory to Ukraine’ here?”
“The other day, a rocket hit a house in Dnipro,” Kolokolnikov, who was born in Ukraine, told the outlet—explaining why he said the slogan in a public place. “And I used to walk past this house every day to the beach, along the Pobeda embankment. In short, I was still a little angry because of this.”From Murder Pigeons to ‘Evil’ Forces: How Putin Sold His War. In another case, Chita resident Ivan Sleponogov was jailed after being accused of saying an anti-war slogan during an Easter church service last April, according to a legal complaint. Sleponogov had allegedly claimed that he was actually chanting “Glory to the guys who died in Ukraine!” in reference to Russian soldiers who were killed in combat, and the case was eventually dropped—after Sleponogov had spent 10 days in jail. Other cases detailed in the Vrestka investigation include complaints made against Russian citizens for playing a Ukrainian song in the car while driving, drunkenly making pro-Ukrainian statements from a balcony, and criticizing the war in private conversations with friends at a coffee shop. The individuals who made the complaints allegedly include eavesdropping neighbors, coworkers, and janitors.
In many of the cases, according to the outlet, little to no evidence was provided by witnesses who reported the alleged violations. In some court filings, however, the “anti-war” sentiments allegedly expressed by accused citizens are not so subtle. In Serpukhov, a city near Moscow, two Russian army veterans accused Yuri Nemtov of approaching them at a shopping mall last November with some choice words. “Well, invaders! Go there to die like meat!,” he allegedly said.

Canada bans Russian steel, aluminum imports as Joly raises 'regime change' in Moscow
OTTAWA/The Canadian Press/Fri, March 10, 2023
Canada is banning the import of Russian steel and aluminum as part of its sanctions regime, as Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly raises the possibility of regime change in Moscow. Joly made the remarks at a Friday press conference where she discussed the importance of maintaining a diplomatic presence in Moscow. "We're able to see how much we're isolating the Russian regime right now — because we need to do so economically, politically and diplomatically — and what are the impacts also on society, and how much we're seeing potential regime change in Russia," she said. The Liberals have pushed for regime change in Iran, but Joly has not previously said the same about Russia. She said regime change is indeed the point of sanctions and pursuing accountability for alleged war crimes. "The goal is definitely to do that, is to weaken Russia's ability to launch very difficult attacks against Ukraine. We want also to make sure that Putin and his enablers are held to account," she said. "I always make a difference between the regime and the people of a given country, which is fundamental." Also Friday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced a ban on imports of steel and aluminum, which she said will help undermine Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Figures fromthe Department of Industry show that Canada imported $208 million in steel products from Russia in 2021 and $79 million last year. Canada also imported $44 million in aluminum from Russia in 2021 and another $16 million last year. Russia's trade with Canada plummeted over the first 10 months after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine a year ago, with a 78 per cent per cent drop in exports from the same period one year prior. Ottawa's economic measures already bar the export of everything from forklifts to barbers' chairs, unless Canadian businesses convince the Liberal cabinet to issue exemptions.

Russia boosting China in nuclear arms race, says Pentagon
Roland Oliphant/The Telegraph/Fri, March 10, 2023
Russia is helping China produce plutonium that could be used to expand its nuclear weapons arsenal, a US defence official has warned. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy monopoly, has provided highly enriched uranium for Chinese fast-breeder reactors that could also turn out weapons-grade plutonium. John F Plumb, assistant secretary of defence for space policy, told a Congressional subcommittee hearing on Wednesday that the Pentagon is “concerned” about the relationship and saw a link with China’s known plans to expand its nuclear arsenal.
‘It’s very troubling’
“It’s very troubling to see Russia and China co-operating on this,” he said. “They may have talking points around it, but there’s no getting around the fact that breeder reactors are plutonium, and plutonium is for weapons. “And of course, it matches our concerns about China’s increased expansion of its nuclear forces as well, because you need more plutonium for more weapons.”China is building two fast neutron breeder reactors, known as the CFR-600 project, on Changbiao island, off the coast of Fujian province. The first is due to be connected to the national grid this year. The second will come online around 2026. Tvel, Rosatom’s fuel subsidiary, signed a contract to deliver fuel to the reactors in 2018. It said it had completed deliveries in January this year. China says the project is for civilian power generation and that each reactor will generate about 600MW of electricity. Fast breeder reactors produce more nuclear fuel than they consume, including plutonium, the element used in most nuclear weapons.
China expands nuclear arsenal
Each of the CFR-600 reactors could produce about 200kg of weapons-grade plutonium, enough for about 50 warheads, annually. Together with other sources that could allow China to bring its nuclear arsenal to 1,270 warheads by 2030, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a US-based think tank, has estimated.That is nearly as many as the US currently has deployed on ICBMs. China is believed to be pursuing a rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal in a bid to reach parity with the US. Gen Anthony Cotton, commander of US Strategic Command, informed Congress last month that China now has more ICBM launch platforms than the US, although it does not have as many missiles or warheads.

Russia's Lavrov: conversation with Blinken at G20 was 'constructive' but US said nothing new
(Reuters)/Fri, March 10, 2023
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday that a conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers' meeting in India last week was "constructive", but he heard nothing new from the U.S. side.
Speaking in an interview on Russian state TV, Lavrov said the pair spoke for 10 minutes and discussed nuclear arms issues and the conflict in Ukraine. It was the first meeting between the pair since Russia invaded Ukraine last February. "We spoke constructively, without emotions, we shook hands," Lavrov said. "Everything I heard was a position that has already been expressed and underlined in public many times before. I gave my honest, detailed assessment about the New START treaty, and why we saw it necessary to suspend it," he said. President Vladimir Putin Russia suspended the New START nuclear arms treaty last month, accusing the United States of trying to inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia in Ukraine. Russia said on Friday it was still in contact with Washington over the treaty, but held out little prospect of returning to it.

Putin Decree Puts Popular Route Out of Russia Assets on Hold
Bloomberg News/Fri, March 10, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- New Russian rules are complicating a popular route for investors to exit their holdings by selling their securities to brokerages in so-called friendly nations.
According to the decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, transactions with government ruble bonds, depository receipts and eurobonds that were purchased after March 1 last year from investors in unfriendly countries and registered with Russian custodians, will now require approval from the central bank or a special government commission. Previously, only investors from nations deemed hostile to Russia since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine needed the permit. Now it applies to Russian residents or non-residents from friendly nations, prompting brokerages to pause work on the deals and seek clarification from the Bank of Russia, according to several traders involved in the transactions. Kazakhstan Lifts Veil on Market Backdoor for Buying Russian Debt. The implications and the ultimate aim of the decree are unclear and the hold-up in processing the transactions may prove temporary, according to the traders, who requested anonymity because they’re not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. A representative for the Bank of Russia declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg. Among the questions traders have put to the central bank are whether the rule should be applied to depository receipts of Russian companies registered abroad, like Yandex NV, and which deals with bonds and government ruble debt, or OFZs, might be allowed without the permit. Before Russia invaded Ukraine last year, international investors owned the equivalent of about $150 billion of investments in Russian stocks, government eurobonds and OFZs, according to data from the stock exchange and central bank. While many larger funds froze their Russian holdings since the war and wrote them down to zero, some investors were still able to exit their Russian assets despite sanctions, capital controls and blocked international clearinghouses. Foreigners sold their securities at a discount to brokerages in nations like Armenia and Kazakhstan, which could then sell them on to investors in Russia. Comments from Alexei Klementiev, Senior Associate with the Rybalkin, Gortsunyan, Dyakin and Partners law firm: “The restriction on domestic sales of securities acquired by Russian investors offshore will reduce incentives for Russian investors to pursue offshore transactions as the opportunities for resale of those assets is subject to ultimate approval within Russia” “Investors in ‘unfriendly’ jurisdictions will still be able to trade Russian securities among themselves and with parties in ‘friendly’ jurisdictions without approval from the Central Bank, but to bring the money into Russia, that transaction will need to be approved. And if a Russian investor bought Russian securities from investors in ‘unfriendly’ jurisdictions after March 1 2022, brought them to Russia, and now tries to sell them to another investor in Russia, they will need approval for that transaction too”

Israeli Settler Kills Palestinian Who Military Says Was Planning Attack
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 March, 2023
An Israeli settler shot dead a Palestinian man who the Israeli military said was armed with knives and explosive devices on Friday near a city in the northern occupied West Bank. The Israeli military said separately its forces raided a town near the Palestinian hub city of Ramallah overnight and opened fire on a crowd throwing stones and Molotov cocktails, hitting one person, without specifying whether they were killed or wounded, Reuters said. Tension in the West Bank has been surging for months, with the near-daily military raids and escalating settler violence in the West Bank amid a spate of attacks by Palestinians. Palestinian officials confirmed a 21-year-old man was killed by an Israeli settler near the city of Qalqilya on Friday but did not immediately note any casualties from the raid in Ni'lin. Relatives of the man killed told Reuters he was religious but were not aware of any membership in Palestinian groups. They said the military was still withholding his body. On Thursday, a Hamas gunman opened fire in Tel Aviv, wounding three people, one of them critically, before being killed by police and passersby. The group said the attack was a response to Israel's killing of three Palestinian gunmen in the West Bank earlier that day. During the operation in the town of Ni'lin on Friday, the Israeli military said it arrested two relatives of the Hamas gunman and mapped out his home for demolition. Israel says such demolitions are meant to deter potential Palestinian assailants. Palestinians and rights groups condemn the policy as collective punishment. Over the past year, Israeli forces have made thousands of arrests in the West Bank and killed more than 200 Palestinians, including fighters and civilians. More than 40 Israelis and foreign nationals have died in attacks by Palestinians over the same period. Palestinians seek to establish a state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, areas Israel captured in a 1967 Middle East war. The expansion of Jewish settlements and deadlocked political progress have increasingly dimmed statehood prospects.

Israel’s Elite Unit of F-15I “Thunder” Fighters Abort Planned Strike
Sébastien Roblin/Popular Mechanics/March 10, 2023
In the last 75 years, Israel’s famed 69 Squadron—nicknamed the ‘Hammers’—has carried out air strikes on a royal palace in Cairo, air defense missile batteries in Lebanon and along the Suez canal, and a nuclear reactor under construction in Syria. But reservists in the unit recently attempted a very different type of strike in response to domestic political developments.
On March 5, 37 reservists pilots and navigators out of 40 in the elite unit announced they would not attend scheduled training on Wednesday, protesting judicial reforms planned by the far-right coalition of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that would allow lawmakers to overrule Supreme Court rulings through a simple majority vote. At the same time, he seeks to pass measures allowing appointment of loyalists to the court.
These reforms are intended to prevent Israel’s Supreme Court from impeding the legislative agendas of Netanyahu’s governing coalition, which include expanding the role of religion in public life, empowering Israeli settlers to confiscate land from minorities, shielding officials from corruption investigations, and maintaining/expanding privileged status and financial support for ultra-Orthodox groups.
According to The Times of Israel, the pilots expressed concerns Netanyahu’s reforms would collapse the legitimacy of Israel’s government, exposing them to prosecution by the International Criminal Court. However, after meeting with IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi, on Tuesday the reservists aborted the planned strike in favor of a compromise: they reported to duty, but spent the day discussing their concerns over judicial reforms rather than participating in military exercises.
Based at Hatzerim airbase near Beersheba, 69 Squadron is the only IDF unit operating Israel’s F-15I Ra’am (Thunder)—a customized variant of the F-15E Strike Eagle, a heavy, two-seat fighter bomber that can fly fast and far carrying a whopping 11.5 tons of weapons and extra fuel. These aircraft would literally do much of the heavy lifting in a conflict between Israel and Iran due to the distance separating the two countries, making raids by Israel’s shorter-range F-16s and F-35s less efficient.
The attempted pilot’s strike is far from the only protest taking place in the reserve component of Israel’s military. 150 members of Unit 8200—Israel’s cyberwarfare and national signals intelligence unit comparable to the NSA—also threatened to go on strike should the judicial reform get passed.
Other elements of Israel’s armed forces and intelligence services that signed open letters opposing the changes include:
retired and reserve personnel of the Shin Bet intelligence service and Sayeret Matkal commando unit
250 reservist officers in the Special Ops division of Israeli military intelligence
Over 300 reservist and retired submariners in the Israeli Navy, who operate Israel’s sea-based nuclear missiles
15 retired major generals and “dozens of officers” from Israel’s Armored Corps
all ten living former commanders of the Israeli Air Force
The F-15I and Iran
Due to their huge fuel and weapons capacity, Israel’s F-15I would play a leading role in any scenario involving strikes on Iranian soil. Ironically for such bitter enemies, Israel and Iran do not share a border and are separated by hundreds of miles of other country’s airspace. While aerial refueling can extend range of Israel’s short-range fighters, tanker aircraft cannot safely fly everywhere a faster, stealthier fighter can.
Even then, Israel warplanes could only do so by approaching through Saudi airspace; or that of Syria or Jordan, followed by Turkey or Iraq. However, as the Saudis and Israelis improve their relations over shared opposition to Iran, it’s possible Riyadh might support Israeli raids.
Netanyahu and Saudi prince Mohamed Bin Salman have opposed diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran(which largely collapsed after the Trump administration withdrew from a nuclear deal in 2018), favoring a ‘military solution’ to Iran’s nuclear program. The IAF’s twenty-five F-15Is have long constituted its most effective means of doing so. They’re now aided by newer F-35I Adir stealth fighters that can help locate and destroy air defense systems, “kicking down the door” for the heavier-hitting but indiscrete F-15Is. Though Israel has uniquely developed special fuel tanks to extend the F-35’s reach, it still has a much lower practical payload when stealthy compared to the F-15Is.
The logistics of such strikes are still demanding enough, and Iran’s nuclear program sufficiently distributed and fortified, that it’s doubtful Israel could sustain the volume of attacks needed to truly ‘de-nuclearize’ Iran. And whether carried out unilaterally or with allies, an overt strike campaign targeting Iran would have far-reaching and costly regional and global repercussions.
Nonetheless, Mena Adel, a military aviation writer and editor published at Scramble magazine wrote to me Israel has repeatedly rehearsed long-distance raids with the Ra’amas a centerpiece.
The exercises simulate attacks on “…high-value and fortified targets that are protected from air defense units of all kinds, long- and short-range... Ra'am is thought to be the main striker in a possible attack on the Iranian reactors, but its presence requires many preparations in the theatre. First with the 5th gen [F-35 stealth] fighters in a forward observation mission integrated with ISTAR HVA (Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting Acquisition and Reconnaissance of high value assets) to form a complete situational awareness picture, and then with intense electronic warfare interference to open up the corridor. F-16I Sufa fighters can make a gap by neutralizing the air defense systems in suppression/destruction of enemy air defense (SEAD/DEAD) missions so that the Ra'am fighters can attack with heavy weight bunker busting bombs, under cover from F-15C BAZ fighters and F-35s from possible Iranian interceptors.”
In scenarios where Israel supports a U.S. air campaign against Iran, the F-15Is instead focused on air defense suppression using long-range missiles to open gaps for U.S. heavy bombers. Israel’s F-35Is have also practiced attacking Iranian-style targets alongside U.S. Strike Eagle jets.
The Hammers in Israeli History
The “Hammer Project” originated very early in Israel’s existence as a state when Israeli agents purchased four World War II surplus B-17 heavy bombers via a front company. Though one bomber was impounded mid-transit by the FBI, the remaining three received a hodge podge of combat equipment in Czechoslovakia and World War II veterans for flight crews. Renamed 69 Squadron, they carried out raids on Cairo, Damascus and other targets during the first Arab-Israeli war, followed by eight combat sorties supporting Israeli troops in the 1956 Suez crisis.
Reactivated in 1969, the unit received vastly more advanced F-4 Phantom supersonic fighter-bombers. During the War of Attrition between Israel and Egypt, the squadron dueled Egyptian MiG-21 fighters with great success and battled SA-2 surface-to-air missile batteries established along the Suez canal with mixed outcomes.
But when Egypt and Syria surprise attacked Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the IAF was unprepared for their upgraded air defenses. 69 Squadron lost six F-4s in three days to Egyptian SA-3 and SA-6 missile systems, and Syrian ZSU-23-4 mobile anti-aircraft guns. The Hammers switched to strikes targeting airbases and depots with more success, though three more F-4s were lost. The U.S. hurriedly replaced the unit’s losses, furnishing eight Phantoms painted green for service in Vietnam armed with brand-new Maverick guided missiles.
After the war, the Hammers worked on new tactics and weapons to defeat air defenses, which again confronted IAF pilots when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. That June, the IAF executed Operation Mole Cricket 19, using Mastiff decoy drones to attract the radars used by a dense network of Syrian air defense batteries. Once those were active, 69 Squadron Phantoms targeted them with radar-homing AGM-78 and AGM-45 missiles. Ultimately, all but five of the 19 missile batteries were destroyed without loss, while escorting F-15s and F-16 jets shot down over 80 Syrian fighters that tried to intercede.
The squadron finally traded in their Phantoms when the first F-15Is were delivered to Israel 1998-2000 along with LANTIRN targeting pods. Besides greatly increased payload, the two-seat Ra’ams had multi-mode APG-70I radars capable of scanning for ground targets like missile-launching targets detectable up to 37 miles away. They were furthermore customized with Israeli-designed helmet-mounted display/sights, electronic self-defense jammers and radar warning receiver, radios, and support for indigenous Python-3/4 air-to-air missiles and Popeye cruise missiles (range 48 miles).
The unit has since seen combat in every major combat operation, particularly including the 2006 Lebanon War, and a 2007 strike that crippled a Syrian nuclear reactor in Deir-es-Zor using Maverick missile, guided to target by lasers used by Israeli special forces on the ground—bringing Syria’s nuclear research program to an abrupt end. Throughout the 2010s, the Ra’am carried out hundreds of strikes on Syrian government troops and Hezbollah and Iranian Revolution Guard Corps forces in Syria, without loss.
A quarter century later, Israel wants more Strike Eagles—and better ones. Thus it’s planning to buy an additional squadron of 25 new F-15EXs which will be customized in Israeli service as the F-15IA, as well upgrade 69 Squadron’s current Ra’am fleet to the improved model.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 10-11/2023
Question: “Why is justification by faith such an important doctrine?”
GotQuestions.org?/March 10/2023
Answer: The teaching of justification by faith is what separates biblical Christianity from all other belief systems. In every religion, and in some branches of what is called “Christianity,” man is working his way to God. Only in true, biblical Christianity is man saved as a result of grace through faith. Only when we get back to the Bible do we see that justification is by faith, apart from works.
The word justified means “pronounced or treated as righteous.” For a Christian, justification is the act of God not only forgiving the believer’s sins but imputing to him the righteousness of Christ. The Bible states in several places that justification only comes through faith (e.g., Romans 5:1; Galatians 3:24). Justification is not earned through our own works; rather, we are covered by the righteousness of Jesus Christ (Ephesians 2:8; Titus 3:5). The Christian, being declared righteous, is thus freed from the guilt of sin.
Justification is a completed work of God, and it is instantaneous, as opposed to sanctification, which is an ongoing process of growth by which we become more Christlike (the act of “being saved,” cf. 1 Corinthians 1:18; 1 Thessalonians 5:23). Sanctification occurs after justification.
Understanding the doctrine of justification is important for a Christian. First, it is the very knowledge of justification and of grace that motivates good works and spiritual growth; thus, justification leads to sanctification. Also, the fact that justification is a finished work of God means that Christians have assurance of their salvation. In God’s eyes, believers have the righteousness necessary to gain eternal life.
Once a person is justified, there is nothing else he needs in order to gain entrance into heaven. Since justification comes by faith in Christ, based on His work on our behalf, our own works are disqualified as a means of salvation (Romans 3:28). There exist vast religious systems with complex theologies that teach the false doctrine of justification by works. But they are teaching “a different gospel—which is really no gospel at all” (Galatians 1:6–7).
Without an understanding of justification by faith alone, we cannot truly perceive the glorious gift of grace—God’s “unmerited favor” becomes “merited” in our minds, and we begin to think we deserve salvation. The doctrine of justification by faith helps us maintain “pure devotion to Christ” (2 Corinthians 11:3). Holding to justification by faith keeps us from falling for the lie that we can earn heaven. There is no ritual, no sacrament, no deed that can make us worthy of the righteousness of Christ. It is only by His grace, in response to our faith, that God has credited to us the holiness of His Son. Both Old and New Testaments say, “The just shall live by faith” (Habakkuk 2:4; Romans 1:17; Galatians 3:11; Hebrews 10:38).


Biden’s diplomacy without deadlines erodes US-Gulf alliance

Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Asia Times/March 10/2023
Whatever its Gulf policy, the Biden administration’s approach should be coherent, but that has simply not been the case
As US and Gulf Cooperation Council officials huddled in mid-February to discuss military coordination that could counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region, an explosive Iranian drone slammed into an Israeli-owned tanker in the Arabian Sea.
Though committed to GCC security and the freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf – a waterway through which a quarter of global energy is shipped – the US has been unable to intercept Iranian attacks on international vessels or stop Tehran’s piracy.
The US has not responded punitively to years of Iranian aggression both at sea and across the Middle East or shown enough teeth to deter Tehran from committing these acts. Washington’s unwillingness to stop Iranian bullying of this kind raises awkward questions about what benefits Washington’s Gulf partners get out of their alliance with the US.
Along these lines, a joint US-GCC statement after the meeting last month seemingly downgraded America’s commitment to Gulf security. “Diplomacy remained the preferred way to address Iran’s destabilizing policies and nuclear escalation in a sustained manner,” the statement read.
Connecting Tehran’s destabilizing activities to diplomacy is unreasonable, if not outright impossible, given that Iran has refused to discuss with world powers any issues that are not about its nuclear program.
President Joe Biden has committed to reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which curbed Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. His predecessor Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement as part of a tougher approach to Iran.
Yet Biden’s team have failed to make headway with the talks, and Pentagon officials recently warned that Iran could now produce enough material for a nuclear bomb within just 12 days.
This makes Biden’s policy on Iran look even more toothless, not only because Washington insists on diplomacy, but because such diplomacy has no timetable or deadlines. Iran will agree to diplomacy whenever Iran agrees, or to put it in the words of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the ball is in Iran’s court. And if Iran never agrees to talk, and continues to enrich uranium and threaten Gulf navigation, the US will just sit back and watch.
Washington, it turns out, still believes that an Iranian “change in behavior” is possible, a policy reminiscent of the days of former president Barack Obama. “Iran’s leadership could choose a better alternative that would contribute to a more secure and stable region and benefit the Iranian people,” said the US-GCC statement.
Betting on “behavior change” is based on the assumption that once Iran is reconnected to the global economy, its officials will have a vested interest in abandoning their policies to keep money flowing to their coffers. Such a policy was tested between 2016 and 2018. It failed miserably.
Other than the endless rounds of talks with Iran in Vienna or other European capitals, the Biden team seems to be out of ideas on how to defend America’s allies among the Gulf monarchies. The Iranian regime often tells its Gulf neighbors that the US will never come to their rescue and that the only guarantee for their security is to bend to Tehran’s wishes. The Biden administration seems OK with such an arrangement.
But Washington has been trying to impress on GCC countries that their alliance with the US is worthwhile. In its most recent National Security Strategy, the Biden administration said that instead of military force, it will “strengthen partner capacity” by “enabling regional security integration” and “enabling our partners to defend their territory.”
Enabling partners’ defenses requires, in the very least, guaranteeing them a steady flow of arms, something that America’s Democrats have been using as a political tool.
If the US wants to build the defense capabilities of its allies, arms supply should never be up for bargaining, especially given that America is not giving these weapons out for free but for colossal amounts of money. If Washington is not willing to sell defense to these countries, then Gulf monarchies might want to fetch defense contractors elsewhere.
Policy disagreements between allies are normal. What is not normal, however, is Washington’s unpredictable swings in its relations with Gulf countries.
There are days when America’s relations are incumbent on principles, especially human rights. Then there are other days when the US forgets about human rights and demands that GCC members export as much oil as they can. In both cases, the US quickly escalates to threats of ending arms sales.
Whatever its Gulf policy, the Biden administration’s approach should be coherent. Since he took office that has simply not been the case.
Many Americans wish to see democracy spread to every corner of Earth. Yet experience has shown that military power alone cannot force democracy on regimes such as those in the Gulf region that are not ready for it. Experience has also shown that America today lacks the endurance required to build democratic nations, as it did in Germany and Japan after World War II.
The less the US is willing to get involved in global affairs, the more realistic it has to become when dealing with the world. Washington must deal with countries – friends or foes – as they are, not as the US likes them to be.
When American foreign policy becomes more predictable, GCC allies will know where to stand and what to expect, unlike the rollercoaster relationship that they have been having with Washington of late.
*This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @hahussain. FDD is a Washington, DC-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Israel Could Be Headed for a Cold Civil War
Lloyd Green/The Daily Beast/Fri, March 10, 2023
Against the backdrop of rising tensions with Iran, heightened violence in the West Bank, and the threat of a third intifada (an armed Palestinian uprising), Israel sits on the cusp of its own cold civil war.
Whether things turn hot, simply simmer, or cool down remains to be seen. Regardless, the current government’s plan to overhaul the judiciary has elicited more blowback than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ever anticipated.
With less than two months to go before its 75th anniversary, ancient divides have reemerged as jagged chasms. As with Brexit in the United Kingdom and the rise of Donald Trump in the United States—blood and soil, religion, and ethnicity again roil Israel’s body politic.
Israel Is Having Its Biggest Existential Crisis Yet
For two months, Israelis have taken to the streets and highways to protest the current government’s plans. Many Israelis believe Netanyahu and his allies aim to undermine the role the courts play in checking the prime minister and the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. In their view, the right is grasping for unfettered power. Some critics also think it’s a cynical ploy to keep Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, out of prison. On Thursday, a nationwide mass protest—dubbed a “Day of Resisting Dictatorship”—forced Netanyahu to meet U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at Ben-Gurion Airport outside Tel Aviv. Pandemonium on the highways and the airport caused Netanyahu and Co. to dispense with diplomatic niceties. Adding to the flames of unrest, members of the air force and military intelligence reserves have threatened to ignore call-ups if the legislation that seemingly triggered this chain of events is enacted into law. Already, Israel’s air force has discharged a reserve colonel/fighter pilot for fomenting protest. None of this is a good look for a country that may find itself as the head of the spear in a hot war against Tehran. Demonstrators clash with police officers during the "Day of Resistance" protest as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition government presses on with its contentious judicial overhaul, in Jerusalem, March 9, 2023.
Whether a viable compromise emerges over efforts by the government to overhaul its judicial system remains uncertain. For the moment, both sides are publicly dug in. Netanyahu and his coalition partners refuse to hit the brakes. At the same time, the opposition declines to engage in discussion.
On Thursday night, Isaac Herzog, Israel’s ceremonial president, said that democracy and an “independent judiciary” were paramount values. He added that the current version of the overhaul needed to “pass from the world” and acknowledged that the events of Thursday were a “nightmare.” According to Herzog, however, some progress in negotiations has been made behind closed doors. Already, this game of chicken has exacted a heavy price. The shekel, Israel’s currency, has declined while interest rates have risen. Property values have dropped, and the size of mortgage payments has swollen. The stock market is woozy. Israelis are repositioning their bank deposits abroad. A headline on a Hebrew-language financial website blares, “No Path of Return: The Dream of Expanding Israeli Hi-Tech is Endangered.”
In that same vein, a passel of bond rating agencies has warned of possible rating downgrades. As a small trading state, that’s a large and unnecessary headache for Israel. Indeed, in this instance, it is a gaping, self-inflicted wound.
For their part, Mike Bloomberg, New York City’s billionaire ex-mayor, and Nouriel Roubini, the noted economist, have issued admonitions of their own. Bloomberg went so far as to say that as “the owner of a global company” he does not “blame” businesses for reevaluating their investments in Israel. Roubini characterized the overhaul as “playing with fire.” The future of “Start-Up Nation” suddenly appears murky.
Unlike the cases of the U.S. and the U.K., however, immigration is not a driver of the tumult. Israel is well-known for strictly scrutinizing anyone who enters the country, who may stay, and who becomes a citizen. Rather, in the case of Israel, think of it as looking in the mirror and not being happy with the image that stares back.
Decades-old grudges have now morphed into pitched political battles. Antipathies of the old world are now playing out in what was thought to be a high-tech Hebrew-speaking mecca. Israel’s per capita gross domestic product surpasses much of the West—it is on par with that of England, France, and Canada.
Bibi’s Israel Is Turning Into a High-Tech Version of Hungary
Taken together, this looks awfully like a culture war. The underpinnings of the scrum seem to be about who is already living inside the figurative house, makers and takers, who worships, and how often. The right claims that it won the election and possesses a legal and popular mandate to enact a series of changes that would shift power to the Knesset at the expense of the courts. To be sure, the right’s claim to wanting more democracy can easily sound like a mask for illiberal parliamentary majoritarianism. They would never buy into a mechanism for direct voter-initiated referenda. Meanwhile, the left has done little to dispel charges of unvarnished elitism. Overall, the opposition represents better-educated and wealthier Israelis, heavily weighted toward the top fifth of the income ladder. They rightly fear that the government's effort to curb the role of the judiciary will serve as a smokescreen for gutting civil liberties and permanently enshrining parliamentary dominance of the right. Beyond that, they worry that the overhaul would erode the status of the courts as an adjudicator of commercial disputes.
There are also deep cultural divides. For instance, Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, previously referred to himself as “a proud homophobe.” Against the more recent backdrop of a lethal Palestinian terror attack and settler reprisals, Smotrich announced that the Palestinian “village of Huwara should be wiped out.” (He has since walked back those remarks.) As a coda, on Thursday the Biden administration granted Smotrich a diplomatic visa to visit the U.S. Likewise, Orit Struck—a Netanyahu and Smotrich ally—declared that her party would seek to revise anti-discrimination legislation to effectively permit hospitals to discriminate against gays.
As for the political left, it has proven itself incapable of addressing the grievances of the Sephardic community (Jews who came to Israel from Arab lands, as opposed to the Ashkenazi descendants of eastern and central European Jews). Israeli Sephardics play an outsized role in Netanyahu’s political base. They are generally more traditional, religiously observant, and blue-collar compared to their Ashkenazic counterparts. They also know when they are being condescended to. And yet for decades, the political left has demonstrated a consistent incapacity to meet them halfway. In politics and life, respect is a big deal. In the present conflict, they wish for capitulation by the opposition, an impossible outcome. More broadly, they seek greater acceptance of their budgetary and social demands. Already, the battle within Israel has reached the White House and the halls of Congress. Amichai Chikli, Israel’s minister of Diaspora Affairs, unloaded on Tom Nides, Washington’s ambassador to Jerusalem, after Nides had said that Netanyahu’s government should slow down its efforts. “Some official, I don’t know who he is, I never met him, suggested I should stay out of Israel’s business,” Nides clapped back. “I really think that most Israelis do not want America to stay out of their business.”
Bibi’s Israel Is Turning Into a High-Tech Version of Hungary
On Capitol Hill, Republicans have rushed to Netanyahu’s defense, while Democrats appear divided. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, expressed his view that the skirmish in Israel is an internal matter. GOP Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas attacked the Biden administration for purportedly undermining Netanyahu. In the House, 80 Democrats signed a letter addressed to the president that urges him “to use all diplomatic tools available to prevent Israel’s current government from further damaging the nation’s democratic institutions.”How much self-inflicted punishment Israelis can endure remains to be seen. One thing is certain, its allure and deterrence rest on it retaining its technological and military edge. A lasting cold civil war helps no one but Israel’s enemies. “A house divided against itself cannot stand,” Abraham Lincoln intoned in June 1858. Things turned real hot in Lincoln’s country three years later.

Three Obstacles in Franjieh’s Path
Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 10/2023
The support of Lebanese parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah for former deputy Suleiman Franjieh does nothing to facilitate the resolution of the presidential crisis in Lebanon. On the contrary, Franjieh’s name being thrown into the mix complicates the task of filling the presidential seat that has been vacant since October. To start with, we offer a reminder that Franjieh has not announced his candidacy himself, though there are rumors that he might do so in the next few days. We can assume that Berri and Hezbollah announcing Franjieh’s candidacy in this manner “embarrassed” the man to the same extent that it brought him joy. It is no surprise to see these two parties supporting him; indeed, their support is a foregone conclusion.
However, Franjieh may have been embarrassed because the man had insisted, after meeting with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi just over a month ago, that he is not Hezbollah’s candidate and that when he decides to run, he would announce the decision himself. He then added that he sought to be a “consensual” candidate with the capacity to be open to all parties. This speech makes clear that Franjieh is aware of the implications of being put forward as Hezbollah’s candidate and how difficult this makes “marketing” his election domestically and regionally.
As for the complications that I believe putting Franjieh forward as a candidate will engender, they can be limited to three:
1 - Opposition by the blocs opposed to the prospect of a Franjieh - the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb party, independent Sunni deputies, several change-minded deputies, and potentially deputies in the Democratic Gathering bloc (the Progressive Socialist Party) and the Free Patriotic Movement - would push them to boycott the parliamentary session of his election. They would prevent the quorum from being met, meaning nullifying the session because less than two-thirds of the deputies (86) would be present.
While the opposition parties had previously rejected the idea of obstructing sessions through a boycott, they now find themselves with no other option. Hezbollah and Berri insist on an “axis of resistance” candidate and a repeat of Michel Aoun’s presidency.
2 - Another problem is tied to support for his presidency among the country’s Christians. It has become common knowledge that the occupants of Lebanon’s three key positions (the presidency, parliament and government) should represent their sects or be accepted by them.
The irony here is that Hezbollah had exploited this custom to justify its support for Aoun’s election in 2016, arguing that he enjoyed broad support among Christians after he had garnered the support of the Lebanese Forces, which was added to the support of the Free Patriotic Movement that he led.
Meanwhile, Franjieh’s standing in the Christian community today is incomparable. The Marada Movement he leads only has one deputy in parliament, his son Tony. For their part, the Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement can count on the support of the majority of Christian deputies in parliament between them. Thus, they are considered most worthy of naming the president of the republic, whether he is a member of one of their parliamentary blocs or a figure they compromise on.
Of course, it could be said that Hezbollah is not very concerned with the Christian community being represented in the governance of the country. What matters to Hezbollah, above all, is that the president reassures the party and refrains from “stabbing the resistance in the back.” However, it is doubtful that Berri will go to the end in his support of a candidate without broad Christian backing.
3 - This leads us to the third complication brought about by the support of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement for Franjieh. Overcoming the dichotomy of the two names openly facing off today, Franjieh and MP Michel Mouawad, has been made more difficult. Given the terms or dictates that Hezbollah imposed (as it always does) when it announced the adoption of Franjieh’s candidacy, even identifying a “consensual” candidate has become far-fetched.
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said it clearly: “We have not put Franjieh’s name forward as a ruse or to improve our negotiating position; he has the qualities we want to see in a president.” He then reminded the Lebanese and anyone who may be concerned: “We were tested for two and a half years after the previous elections,” referring to the fact that, at the time, he got what he wanted in the end.
With this statement, he signaled that the party is willing to obstruct the entire process until everyone acquiesces to its choice once again. The head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad, also threatened “a hundred years of waiting” if the Lebanese do not accept the candidate that Hezbollah has chosen for them. However, Hezbollah’s intransigence can do nothing this time but perpetuate the presidential crisis. The political forces opposed to Hezbollah’s candidate are convinced that giving in would be worse than prolonging the presidential vacuum.
Three obstacles that Suleiman Franjieh’s supporters will struggle to overcome: ensuring that the quorum is met during the election and securing Christian “cover” for this president, which is impossible given the opposition of the two largest Christian blocs and Patriarch al-Rahi’s refusal to discuss any particular figures or endorse any candidate. Moreover, Franjieh can no longer fit the image of a “consensual” candidate that he had aspired to after Hezbollah took the initiative, announced its support, and stressed that he met the party’s criteria.

China: Competitor or Enemy?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 10/2023
More than four decades ago when Deng Xiaoping became the first leader of Communist China to pay a state visit to the United States, few observers thought that he was stepping on a ladder that would lead his nation over several steps from its status as “valuable partner”, in President Jimmy Carter’s words, to a challenger, a competitor and a rival of the American “superpower”. Earlier this month the US Congress pushed China further up that ladder by sounding alarm bells about “Chinese ambitions”. The House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the US and the Chinese Communist Party didn’t directly designate China as an enemy but its Chairman Mike Gallagher (R.Wis.) came close to that position by labelling it “a threat”.If the current trend continues, the term “threat” may soon be replaced by “enemy”. Opinion polls show that China today is one of the most unpopular nations in the United States along with Russia, and Islamic Republic in Iran. Even then China is in a unique position because its unpopularity cuts across partisan lines in Washington.
Russia, for example, enjoys some goodwill among MAGA Republicans while some Obama-Democrats have a soft spot for the mullahs’ regime in Tehran. Some American pundits even see the current trend leading to a new Cold War with China replacing the defunct Soviet Union as “the enemy”.
There are, however, key differences between the old Cold War and the one imagined by the pundits. The Soviet Union posed an ideological threat to the US, in fact to all capitalist democracies while China, recent theoretical gesticulations by President Xi Jinping notwithstanding, isn’t marketing its Utopia as a model for all mankind.
The USSR was also involved in fomenting anti-US, in fact anti-West, agitations by supporting over 40 Communist parties across the globe, including such European democracies such as those in France, Germany and Portugal.
The Soviets were also fueling the fires of armed rebellion against pro-West governments in more than a dozen nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America while propping up a number of “Third World” dictators , especially in Africa and the “Arab world”.
Soviet leaders seldom had any qualms about the use of force to impose their will. Crushing dissent by force in Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, the missile blackmail in Cuba, and the invasion of Afghanistan to impose a Communist regime, showed that, in its challenge to the US-led world order, the Politburo wouldn’t shy away from going to the wire. More importantly, the Soviet challenge drew the US into the biggest arms race in history which the Soviets ended up by losing. Even today, Vladimir Putin sees Russia as a successor of the USSR with an increasingly revanchist agenda. The invasion of Georgia in 2008, and of Ukraine in 2022, are the latest manifestations of that revanchist agenda.
In contrast, China stopped its largely imaginary ideological challenge to Western capitalism, led by the US, in the 1970s by ending support for rebels in Angola, Mozambique and South Yemen and abandoned such allies as Enver Hoxa in Albania and People’s Guerrilla Fedayeen fighting against the Shah in Iran.
In fact, compared to the USSR-Russia, Communist China has seldom embarked on military adventures to advance its goals. In the 1960s, in a border war, it lost large chunks of its territory to the Soviet Union. It also fought a brief war with India, annexing chunks of Indian territory along its border. Apart from occasional bombardments against the islands of Quemoy and Matsu, largely designed to attract attention, the People’s Republic has not used military force. The last time it invaded anyone was in 1979 when it annexed a chunk of Vietnamese territory in a brief war. American grievances against China, however, are not limited to concern about its massive military build-up. China is trying to create a blue-water navy to assert domination in South China Sea while modernizing its antiquarian arsenal of weapons.
If the current trend continues, other things being equal, by 2035 China could be as big a military power as the US is today. But who knows whether or not the current trends will continue and that other things will remain equal. China has a number of vulnerabilities that the USSR did not. It is regarded with suspicion, not say hatred, by almost all its neighbors, with the possible exception of Pakistan. Unlike the USSR which was major exporter, China is also heavily dependent on energy imports and prices on the world market. As the Chinese learn to feed themselves better, the People’s Republic is also becoming more dependent on food imports.
All that means that unlike the USSR or Russia that could get along, albeit miserably, with an autarchic system, the People’s Republic is heavily dependent on global trade. That brings us back to the United States, which remains China’s biggest market and trading partner.
In 2021 China exported an estimated $3.5 trillion worth of goods and services more than a sixth of which was to the US while the US exported under $200 billion to China, a deficit of over $300 billion.
Though China is often accused of trying to buy everything in the US to steal American technology and skills the fact is that the People’s Republic isn’t among the top foreign investors in the US, falling behind even Ireland and France. Instead, China has emerged as one of the top holders of dollar reserves, helping boost the always wobbly figures for national savings in the US.
One myth bandied around in Washington is that the Chinese hate the US. We seen no serious research into that claim. But anecdotal evidence gathered in a dozen visits to China between 1970 and 2014 suggests otherwise. In fact the US is number-one destination for Chinese tourists and students while the so-called American lifestyle is attracting a growing number of Chinese in urban areas.
There is no doubt that the Chinese leadership hasn’t always played the power game according to acceptable rules. It certainly was economical with the truth about the origins of Covid-19 and the deception spread through the World Health Organization.
Reports that China is engaged in industrial espionage may also be true, albeit exaggerated. All that, however should not push China up the ladder to a status of threat followed by that of “enemy”. China has closely cooperated with the US in passing seven UN Security Council resolutions against the Islamic Republic in Iran.
It has also enforced sanctions decreed by former President Donald J. Trump while benefiting from cut-price Iranian oil. China has not recognized the annexation of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk by Putin and has not endorsed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The myth of “the Yellow Peril” put Western powers on a wrong track vis-à-vis Chia for many decades. Before labelling China as “enemy”, the West should consider seeing it as a competitor for global influence, always remembering that a competitor could force you to develop your own capabilities.