English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 08/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Is there unrighteousness with God? May it never be! For he said to Moses, “I will have mercy on whom I have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion
Romans 09/14-18/ What shall we say then? Is there unrighteousness with God? May it never be! For he said to Moses, “I will have mercy on whom I have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion.” So then it is not of him who wills, nor of him who runs, but of God who has mercy. For the Scripture says to Pharaoh, “For this very purpose I caused you to be raised up, that I might show in you my power, and that my name might be proclaimed in all the earth.” 18 So then, he has mercy on whom he desires, and he hardens whom he desires.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 07-08/2023
Lebanon Says it Regains UN Voting Rights after Paying Dues
UN Rights Chief Calls for ‘Serious’ Lebanon Blast Investigation
Bkerki's spokesperson says al-Rahi, Bukhari agree on president's qualifications
Salam, UNESCO’s Farina discuss preservation of Rashid Karami International Exhibition
Boujikian, President of BERYTECH sign cooperation agreement to stimulate innovation in Lebanon
Berri broaches general situation with French Ambassador, meets Caretaker Ministers Sleem, Mawlawi
Mikati chairs ministerial meeting over ways to enhance public safety measures at airport
Mikati discusses means to support private sector with European Commission’s Mathernova, meets Caretaker Social Affairs Minister, MP Chehayeb,...
Franjieh has 'vision' for political stability, economic salvation
Gen. Aoun lashes out at those 'fabricating rumors' against army
FPM MP says 'now clear' that FPM not part of any alignment
After Franjieh nomination, MP says solution may be 'closer than we imagine'
UN Special Coordinator urges leaders to 'empower' state institutions
TotalEnergies says to begin drilling in Lebanon in late September
It Is Time for a New Hezbollah Policy
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/March, 07/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 07-08/2023
Syrian state media: Israeli strike damages Aleppo airport
Israel strike knocks out airport in Syria's Aleppo
Ambiguity Surrounds Iran’s Purported Nuclear Concessions
White House Urges UN to Investigate Poisoning of Iran Schoolgirls
Teachers protest over suspected Iran schoolgirl poisonings
Hamas Operatives in Turkey Recruit Palestinians for Terror Attacks
Israeli military caught up in divide over Netanyahu's plan
At Least 6 Palestinians Killed during Israeli West Bank Raid
Israelis, Palestinians clash in flashpoint West Bank town
Israeli military caught up in divide over Netanyahu's plan
Zelensky says Ukraine is reinforcing Bakhmut positions, not withdrawing. Here's why that may pay off.
Russia is losing 5 of its soldiers for every Ukrainian it kills in the war's bloodiest battle, NATO official tells CNN
Russia’s Shoigu: Capture of Bakhmut Will Allow Further Offensives in Ukraine
Senior Russian Officers Are Refusing To Fight After Facing Such Intense Losses, Ukraine Claims
Ukraine’s secret weapon should terrify Putin
Ukraine asks US to send cluster bomb munitions for use with drones
China warns U.S. to stop suppression or risk 'conflict'
In Iraq, German Minister Condemns Iran’s Cross-Border Attacks

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 07-08/2023
How Biden Subverts Israeli Democracy/Caroline Glick/Gatestone Institute./March 07/2023
Biden Must Send F-16s to Ukraine – Now/Con Coughlin/ Gatestone Institute/March 07/2023
Putin did the world a favor by suspending Russia’s participation in New START/John R. Bolton/The Washington Post/March 07/2023
Great Aspirations… Bring the World Together in Riyadh/Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Farhan/Saudi Minister of Culture/Asharq Al Awsat/March 07/2023
The Serene Hypocrisy of Nikki Haley/Pamela Paul/The New York Times/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
Regional Crisis and Regional Cooperation: Israeli Response to the Earthquake in Syria and Turkey/Nir Boms, Joelle Rosenthal/The Washington Institute/March, 07/2023
UN Aid in Northwest Syria—Or Lack Thereof/Rena Netjes//The Washington Institute/March, 07/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 07-08/2023
Lebanon Says it Regains UN Voting Rights after Paying Dues
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
Lebanon has regained UN voting rights after paying dues for 2022 and 2023, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday, after the country, which is in deep financial crisis, lost its rights at the world body for the second time in three years. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in a Jan. 17 letter, listed Lebanon along with Dominica, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, South Sudan and Venezuela as countries that had lost their UN General Assembly vote. Guterres said Lebanon needed to pay a minimum of some $1.8 million to regain its vote, The Associated Press said. A foreign ministry statement did not say how much Lebanon had paid. "Lebanon has returned to play its natural role ... in the work and discussions of the United Nations and its specialized committees", it said. Lebanon has been in deep crisis since 2019 when its financial system collapsed as a result of decades of profligate spending, mismanagement and corruption by ruling elites. The state, which defaulted on its foreign currency debt in 2020, has been largely paralyzed since, with spending slashed across the board.

UN Rights Chief Calls for ‘Serious’ Lebanon Blast Investigation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights called for a "serious investigation" into the disastrous 2020 Beirut port explosion in a call that was echoed by dozens of other countries on Tuesday. Families of victims, rights groups, and even some political parties in Lebanon have lambasted political stonewalling of the local investigation into the blast that killed some 220 people. The investigating judge has tried to resume his inquiry after a 13-month suspension due to high-level interference but Lebanon's top prosecutor has told clerks not to process his decisions. "Serious investigation into the explosion of August 2020 is urgently needed, without political interference or further delay," Volker Turk said in his global address to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. Shortly afterwards, Australia's envoy read out a statement on behalf of 38 countries including many European states, Canada, Britain and Israel calling for a "swift, independent, credible and transparent investigation". It said the investigation to date had been "hampered by systematic obstruction, interference, intimidation, and a political impasse". Separately, the US ambassador to the council, Michele Taylor, said that a timely and transparent investigation was required and said the lack of progress to date underscored the need for judicial reform. Paul Naggear, father of Alexandra Naggear, a toddler who died in the explosion, told Reuters he was pleased with the broad support for the statement. "The most important thing is a general acknowledgment that the Lebanese authorities have been systematically blocking justice. It's not just us that are saying this now - it's international," he said. "This should show to the Lebanese population that when we unite efforts and work together we can beat the regime."

Bkerki's spokesperson says al-Rahi, Bukhari agree on president's qualifications
Naharnet/ March 07, 2023
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari met Tuesday with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkerki over the Lebanese presidential file. Bukhari told al-Rahi that KSA has no specific candidate but urges for the election of an uncorrupt president who can save the country, local media said. Bkerki’s spokesperson Walid Ghayad told the media that al-Rahi agrees with Bukhari on the president’s qualifications, adding that when there are qualifications, there will definitely be a Saudi veto on those who don’t have these qualifications. Bukhari will also meet with other Lebanese leaders including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat and Kataeb party chief Sami Gemayel.

Salam, UNESCO’s Farina discuss preservation of Rashid Karami International Exhibition
NNA/March 07/2023
Caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade, Amin Salam, on Tuesday welcomed the Director of the UNESCO Regional Bureau in Beirut, Costanza Farina. Talks reportedly touched on areas of cooperation and procedures to be adopted after the inclusion of Rashid Karami International Exhibition on the "List of World Heritage in Danger". UNESCO is working in cooperation with the Ministry of Economy and Trade, and the Ministry of Culture, to formulate an action plan that will preserve the exhibition architecturally and restore its cultural and economic status, as a typical cultural landmark in Tripoli city in particular, and the Mediterranean basin in general.

Boujikian, President of BERYTECH sign cooperation agreement to stimulate innovation in Lebanon
NNA/March 07/2023
Caretaker Minister of Industry, George Boujikian, in his capacity as the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Industrial Research Achievements Association - Lebanon IRALEB, signed a cooperation agreement with President of BERYTECH, Engineer Maroun Chammas, in the latter’s capacity as head of the consortium implementing a program titled “Stimulating the Innovation Ecosystem in Lebanon”, known as Lebanon Innovate, funded by the European Union. The consortium includes BERYTECH, ANIMA, ebn, ELCIM, IRALEB, and LEITAT. In addition to the Ministry of Industry, the IRALEB Association includes the National Council for Scientific Research, and the Association of Lebanese Industrialists. It supervises linking cooperation between the productive and industrial fields, and the academic-university fields. The project funded by the European Union stimulates the innovation system in Lebanon. Minister Boujikian had earlier met with delegation from the World Bank, which included Salim Rouhana and Zina Khoury. Talks focused on programs that will be funded through soft loans or grants to modernize and develop the food industry sector.

Berri broaches general situation with French Ambassador, meets Caretaker Ministers Sleem, Mawlawi
NA/March 07/2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Tuesday received at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, with whom he discussed the current general situation and the bilateral relations between the two countries. Speaker Berri also received Caretaker Defense Minister Maurice Sleem, with whom he discussed the security situation and the latest political developments.
Berri later met with Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities Judge Bassam Mawlawi, and they discussed the country’s general situation, especially the security one.

Mikati chairs ministerial meeting over ways to enhance public safety measures at airport
NNA/March 07/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Tuesday afternoon chaired a ministerial meeting at the Grand Serail, devoted to discussing airport affairs, attended by Caretaker Ministers of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamieh, Industry George Boushkian, Tourism Walid Nassar, Interior and Municipalities Judge Bassam Mawlawi, and Environment Nasser Yassin. The meeting was also attended by the Secretary-General of Council of Ministers Judge Mahmoud Makiya, Middle East Airlines (MEA) Chairman and Director General Mohammed El-Hout, and Beirut Airport security chief, Brigadier General Fadi Kfoury. The meeting was devoted to discussing ways to enhance public safety measures at the airport.

Mikati discusses means to support private sector with European Commission’s Mathernova, meets Caretaker Social Affairs Minister, MP Chehayeb,...
NNA/March 07/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Tuesday met at the Grand Serail, with Deputy Director General of the Directorate General in charge of Eastern Neighbourhood & Economic Investments Plans at the European Commission, Katarina Mathernova, and EU Ambassador to Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, and an accompanying delegation. Discussions during the meeting reportedly touched on ways to support the Lebanese private sector and the need for the Lebanese and parliamentarians to expedite approving the restructuring of the banking sector, ‘’because without a strong banking sector, the economy cannot breathe and grow.”Premier Mikati later met with Caretaker Minister of Social Affairs Hector Hajjar, with whom he discussed an array of ministry related affairs. Mikati also met with “Democratic Gathering” MP Akram Chehayeb, with talks touching on the current educational conditions. The PM also received MP Mohammed Sleiman, with whom he discussed an array of developmental matters related to the district of Akkar. Mikati then received MP Ahmed Al-Khair. Moreover, Mikati also received at the Grand Serail a delegation of the Hajj and Umrah Affairs Authority, headed by former Minister Khaled Qabbani, who said after the meeting that they discussed with the Premier, Hajj (pilgrimage) related affairs. Among Premier Mikati’s itinerant visitors for today had been a delegation from the Lebanese Basketball Federation, headed by its president, Akram Halabi.

Franjieh has 'vision' for political stability, economic salvation
Naharnet/ March 07, 2023
The presidential nomination of Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh is not aimed at “experimenting,” MP Tony Franjieh said, hours after Hezbollah openly endorsed his father’s candidacy. “He represents a serious choice for the presidency, seeing as he gathers between his firm political principles and his openness to all domestic and foreign forces,” the young Franjieh said in an interview with al-Joumhouria newspaper. “We are not fighting the battle of a person; we rather have a complete project that we aspire to implement through Suleiman Franjieh’s election as president,” the lawmaker added. He also said that, if elected, his father would carry to Baabda “an integrated vision for achieving political stability and economic salvation.”

Gen. Aoun lashes out at those 'fabricating rumors' against army
Naharnet/ March 07, 2023
Army Commander General Joseph Aoun has fiercely lashed out at unnamed parties whom he accused of “fabricating rumors and files” against the military institution. “As the army offers hefty sacrifices and shoulders its responsibilities with professionalism and expertise despite the challenges, some fanatics and concerned and unconcerned officials continue to fabricate rumors and files, tarnish the institution’s image and accuse us of corruption and breaking the law,” Aoun said in a speech in the Bekaa. “If breaking the law allows me to accept aid from the Lebanese who love the institution inside and outside the country and to provide medicine, food and transportation for soldiers and hospitalization and tuition aid for their families … then I will break the law,” the commander added. “Their concern is personal interests and your concern is the country’s interest, protecting civil peace and defending your oath,” Aoun told soldiers. “We will not care about their accusations,” the army chief added, stressing that the military institution “will remain bigger than their files and rumors.”He added: “May God aid an army that is fighting stupidity, expensiveness, the pandemic and the lack of modesty and loyalty.”

FPM MP says 'now clear' that FPM not part of any alignment
Naharnet/ March 07, 2023
"It has become clear that the Free Patriotic Movement is not taking part in any alignment," FPM MP Salim Aoun said Tuesday, in a tweet. The tweet came after Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah openly named Suleiman Franjieh as its presidential candidate.
“The natural candidate that we back in the presidential elections and has the specifications that we take into consideration is minister Suleiman Franjieh,” Nasrallah said in a speech during a rally honoring the group's wounded fighters. Nasrallah added that Hezbollah’s declared support for Franjieh does not mean that the party is “giving up the MoU with the FPM" and that Hezbollah is keen on the MoU and the friendship with the FPM. The FPM opposes the election of Franjieh and its chief Jebran Bassil had said that the FPM will not endorse the presidential nomination of Franjieh, even if all other parties agree on him.

After Franjieh nomination, MP says solution may be 'closer than we imagine'
Naharnet/ March 07, 2023
Opposition MP Waddah al-Sadek has announced that the “solution” for the presidential crisis might be “closer than we imagine,” shortly after Hezbollah officially endorsed Suleiman Franjieh’s nomination.
“I have repeatedly said that the (Shiite) Duo’s official nomination of Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh would be the beginning of serious work for the election of a president,” Sadek said in a social media statement. “There is political balance and legislative balance and today there has become balance in nominations, and the solution might be closer than we imagine,” Sadek added.

UN Special Coordinator urges leaders to 'empower' state institutions
Naharnet/ March 07, 2023
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka said Tuesday that state institutions should be responsive to people’s needs. "The current crisis in Lebanon further underlines the responsibility of the political leaders to enable and empower state institutions to deliver," Wronecka stressed in a tweet.

TotalEnergies says to begin drilling in Lebanon in late September
Naharnet/ March 07, 2023
French oil giant TotalEnergies will begin drilling for potential gas reserves in Lebanon’s offshore Block 9 in late September, a company official said. “The results of the drilling operations will be announced at the end of this year,” said Romain de la Martinière, the General Manager of Exploration and Production at TotalEnergies, following a meeting in Beirut with caretaker Public Works and Transport Minister Ali Hamieh. Hamieh for his part reassured that Beirut’s port and airport are “fully prepared” to play an “active role” in the oil and gas exploration file.

حنين غدار/معهد واشنطن: حان الوقت لسياسة جديدة لحزب الله /معهد واشنطن/07 آذار 2023
It Is Time for a New Hezbollah Policy
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/March, 07/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116366/hanin-ghaddar-the-washington-institute-it-is-time-for-a-new-hezbollah-policy-%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86/
Growing domestic blowback presents a strategic opportunity to alter the balance of power in Lebanon, shrink Iran’s long-range influence, and promote true political diversity within the Shia community.
Everyone agrees that Iran’s role and influence in the Middle East have grown exponentially in the past decade. From Yemen to Lebanon—through Iraq and Syria—Iran’s military and soft power increased, and its control of state institutions was consolidated. Despite the destruction and economic collapse that ensued, Iran still owns the political and security decisions—mainly in the Levant.
This is due to many factors, but it is certainly not because Iran is stronger than other players in the region, nor because it has more resources. On the contrary—the Iranian regime knows very well how to wait patiently until a space opens up, and it masterfully fills the gap with its militias and the little resources it can spare.
The reason for Iranian preeminence is the vacuum left by the Western powers, the Gulf, and the U.S. Syria and Lebanon are no longer a priority for the West and the Gulf States, and the revocation of previous attention and interests in the Levant has allowed the Iranian regime to insert itself without much military confrontation but rather with an augmented rhetoric of threats and intimidation. Without support from the West, the March 14 movement in Lebanon and the Syrian opposition in Syria were quickly and violently eliminated by Hezbollah. And without a sustainable policy to oppose Tehran’s control of these two countries, state institutions fell too quickly into Iran’s lap. Hezbollah today has a lot more control over Lebanon’s institutions simply because there are no competitors, and so they are not being held accountable for their crimes.
The gap between Western and local perspectives towards Iran is fascinating. It has become clear to the people of the region that Iran’s power and willingness to act is overestimated in the West. After years of sanctions and military challenges, Iran has missed many opportunities to react or respond to attacks against its interests, mainly in Syria. It is not interested, despite the rhetoric coming out of Tehran, in confronting the West militarily. Instead, Iran’s proxies have been busy using their weapons internally, against opposition and dissidents.
Countering Iran in the Levant—Hezbollah as an Example
Despite the decreased focus and bandwidth on this part of the region, the West—when it decided to act –hit Iran gravely, and the response rarely matched the threats and scenarios the regime usually describes. In the past decade, there have been four main examples where Iran was hit where it really hurt. The escalating U.S. sanctions against the regime, the continuing Israeli strikes against Iran’s military facilities in Syria, the killing of IRGC’s Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani, and U.S. sanctions against Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon. Iran’s response to all of these actions was much less than expected, especially after the killing of Soleimani, who was the mastermind behind all of the regime’s endeavors in the region.
These actions are still hurting Iran and its regional proxies, most noticeably Hezbollah. The consequences are budget restraints, diminished military readiness, and less appetite for war. In Lebanon, Hezbollah decided to sign a deal with Israel over the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, because it also understands that it will be the loser in case of another war.
In the years following the 2006 war, Hezbollah seemed to reach two important realizations: that the threat of its missiles and drones could achieve more than the arms themselves, and that another war could hold worse consequences for the group than making concessions to its sworn enemy. Moreover, the quality of its fighting force was eroded by its subsequent involvement in the Syria war, compelling it to opt for quantity over quality when recruiting new fighters. As a result, many Hezbollah units are now less well-trained, less ideological, and less disciplined than before, so the group would need more time, resources, and funding to mobilize them for war. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s main patron, Iran, will not be in a good financial position to fund the group or rebuild its army and arsenal unless the stalemate over the nuclear deal is broken.
This does not mean the group will curtail its efforts to procure arms in the slightest, however. Despite its growing military and political challenges, Hezbollah has managed to develop several new capabilities since 2006, accumulating more short- and mid-range missiles as well as precision missiles capable of doing serious damage to vital Israeli infrastructure such as airports, water facilities, and power plants. At the same time, the group is well aware that actually going after such targets would beget a harsh Israeli response.
However, without a comprehensive and sustainable U.S. policy with regard to Hezbollah and Lebanon, Hezbollah could overcome many of these challenges. With Iran’s main proxy in the region facing profound challenges internally and militarily, it would be wise for Washington to take the opportunity to double down and further shake the group’s pillars of strength, its allies, its constituency, and its economy.
Time for a New Policy?
So far, the U.S. Lebanon policy has focused on security and humanitarian assistance, along with sanctions against Hezbollah and a few allies. But there hasn’t been serious investment in soft power initiatives that would specifically target Hezbollah’s narrative and programs.
The numbers are clear: since 2010, U.S. assistance to Lebanon has exceeded $4 billion. These funds have gone to support Lebanon’s security agencies, economic needs, good governance, and improvement of critical public services such as water sanitation and education. Washington has provided more than $2 billion in bilateral security assistance to the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces) since 2006, and $2.3 billion in humanitarian assistance since 2011, when the Syrian civil war began, mostly to support refugees and host communities. In addition, through the U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington has provided immediate assistance of $41.6 million during the Covid-19 pandemic, and $18 million in humanitarian aid following the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, including more than $15 million in USAID support for emergency response efforts. Overall, the United States is by far the largest single donor state to Lebanon.
Iran has a different strategy. Rather than respond to immediate crises, it uses aid as a soft power tool to establish roots based on trustworthiness, reliability, and consistency. Iran understands that soft power nourishes roots and is difficult to reverse through wars or sanctions. The only reason the dynamics between Hezbollah and the Shia community are shifting now is that these soft power tools are being challenged.
The Shia community is Hezbollah’s main challenge in Lebanon today. What was once the foundation of its power is eroding. Many Shia became skeptical of Hezbollah’s real agenda after the 2019 protests in Lebanon and the group’s clear effort to protect corrupt enterprises, while violently confronting the protestors. However, there is still nowhere else to go for the Shia without real alternatives—mainly economic alternatives. This is where a U.S. policy could be beneficial—creating economic alternatives for the Shia community, outside Hezbollah’s institutions and Lebanon’s state institutions. The Lebanese private sector could also be a better partner.
The signing of the maritime border agreement with Israel was a great opportunity to expose the group’s weakness and its readiness to compromise with Israel. Making sure the group and its allies do not benefit from gas revenues is vital.
Hezbollah’s other pillar—its allies—is also shaking. Both the U.S. sanctions on the head of the Free Patriotic Movement Gebran Bassil and the 2019 protests caused Bassil to lose during the last parliamentary elections in May 2022. The FPM is no longer a strong Christian ally for Hezbollah and therefore may be abandoned. The group’s other Sunni, Druze and Christian allies also lost in the elections across Lebanon, leaving Hezbollah with Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement, which will be finished after Berri dies. More sanctions against Hezbollah’s allies and enablers within state institutions are essential today to limit the group’s power. Those who are hampering reforms, allowing smuggling along the borders with Syria, and those who are hindering justice and accountability in Lebanon—all need to be sanctioned.
Hezbollah’s current weakness presents a strategic opportunity to alter the balance of power in Lebanon, shrink Iran’s long-range influence, and promote true political diversity within the Shia community. Iran’s power in the region has been expanding and growing for forty years, and although the Iranian regime could boast about controlling four capitals in the region, the countries of these same capitals (Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen) have collapsed—economically and politically. And in forty years, Iran and its proxies have not had to face challenges of this scope.
In parallel, the people of these four countries have realized that the enemy is within—that Iran and its proxies are no longer capable of protecting or providing. The “Resistance,” once Hezbollah’s heroic self-portrayal, has transformed itself by turning its weapons against its own people. All over the region, the same is true: wherever Iran wins militarily and infiltrates the state, mayhem ensues. From Iraq to Lebanon, it has become clear that the people, including the Shia community, can no longer tolerate Iranian power.
Iran and Hezbollah could recover from these challenges, but these four countries will not. To make sure Iran and its proxies are further contained and challenged, and to help the four countries they occupy recover and rebuild their state institutions, the West should do what Iran usually does. The U.S. has the resources and diplomatic strength to fill the gap that Iran left with soft power initiatives, more frequent sanctions against corrupt figures and allies, mechanisms for accountability, and investment in a more sustainable and consistent policy.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow at The Washington Institute and author of Hezbollahland: Mapping Dahiya and Lebanon’s Shia Community. This article was originally published on the Hoover Institution website.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 07-08/2023
Syrian state media: Israeli strike damages Aleppo airport
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP)/ March 07, 2023
An Israeli airstrike hit the international airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo early on Tuesday, putting it out of service, Syria state media said. All flights were rerouted to two other airports in the war-torn country, according to the report.
State news agency SANA, citing an unnamed military official, said Israeli warplanes fired missiles that hit Aleppo International Airport while flying over the Mediterranean Sea. It said the strike “caused material damage to the airport and put it out of service."
There was no comment from Israeli officials and it was not immediately clear if there were any casualties.
Syria's Ministry of Transportation said all flights that were supposed to head to Aleppo will land in the capital, Damascus, or the international airport in the coastal province of Latakia.
The Foreign Ministry called the Israeli strike a “double crime,” saying that it targeted a civilian airport and a main channel for the flow of aid to areas hit by last month's earthquake.
Since the Feb. 6, earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria killing more than 50,000 people, including 6,000 in Syria, scores of flights carrying aid from different countries have landed at the Aleppo airport.
Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets inside government-controlled parts of Syria in recent years, including attacks on the Damascus and Aleppo airports, but it rarely acknowledges or discusses the operations. Israel has targeted airports and sea ports in the government-held parts of Syria in an apparent attempt to prevent arms shipments from Iran to militant groups backed by Tehran, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Thousands of Iran-backed fighters from around the region joined Syria's 12-year conflict helping tip the balance in favor of President Bashar Assad's forces.
Aleppo, which suffered widespread destruction in Syria's civil war, was again heavily damaged in the deadly 7.8-magnitude earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria last month. On Feb. 19, Israeli airstrikes targeted residential areas in Damascus, killing at least five people and wounding 15, according to Syrian state media. On Jan. 2, the Syrian army said Israel’s military fired missiles toward Damascus' international airport, putting it out of service and killing two soldiers. That attack came amid Israeli fears the airport was being used to funnel Iranian weaponry into the country. In September, Israeli airstrikes also hit the Aleppo airport, putting it out of service for days.

Israel strike knocks out airport in Syria's Aleppo
Associated Press/ March 07, 2023
An Israeli airstrike hit the Aleppo airport early Tuesday and put it out of service, Syrian state media reported. Citing a military source, the state news agency SANA said Israel "carried out an air attack from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea, west of Latakia, targeting Aleppo International Airport." SANA said the strike "caused material damage" to the airport. It was not immediately clear if there were any casualties.There was no comment from Israeli officials. Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets inside government-controlled parts of Syria in recent years, including attacks on the Damascus and Aleppo airports, but it rarely acknowledges or discusses the operations. Israel has acknowledged, however, that it targets bases of Iran-allied militant groups, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, which has sent thousands of fighters to support President Assad's forces. Aleppo, which suffered widespread destruction in Syria's civil war, was again heavily damaged in the deadly 7.8-magnitude earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria last month. A number of countries have since sent aid shipments to the city's airport. On Feb. 19, Israeli airstrikes targeted residential areas in Syria's capital, Damascus, killing at least five people and wounding 15, according to Syrian state news. On Jan. 2, the Syrian army said Israel's military fired missiles toward the capital's international airport, putting it out of service and killing two soldiers. That attack came amid Israeli fears the Damascus airport was being used to funnel Iranian weaponry into the country.

Ambiguity Surrounds Iran’s Purported Nuclear Concessions
FDD/March 07/2023
Latest Developments
The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today that Iran’s ostensible nuclear concessions over the weekend are still subject to negotiations. Rafael Grossi’s statement appeared to reverse his earlier assertion on Saturday, after meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran, that Iran had agreed to address some international concerns over its nuclear activities. Meanwhile, an Iranian government news site denied today that Iran had made concessions during Grossi’s visit. As a likely result of the initial optimism that greeted Grossi’s meetings, the value of Iran’s rial significantly rebounded on Sunday after dropping precipitously against the dollar in recent weeks.
Expert Analysis
“Grossi returned from Tehran with nothing more than handshakes and pleasantries. Iran did not roll back its capability to produce near weapons-grade uranium at an underground enrichment facility nor did it give any concrete details on how or when it will resume IAEA monitoring or cooperate with a four-year probe of undeclared nuclear material. You can put lipstick on an illicit nuclear threat, but it’s still an illicit nuclear threat.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
“Iran’s intention is clear: It seeks to stave off IAEA censure by pretending to cooperate with the agency. At the same time, it hopes to resuscitate the value of the rial, which has collapsed due in part to its increasing nuclear intransigence. The Biden administration should call Iran’s bluff and urge the IAEA to refer Tehran to the UN Security Council to reimpose sanctions.” — Tzvi Kahn, Research Fellow and Senior Editor
Conflicting Statements
On Saturday, Grossi said Tehran had decided to reinstall cameras at key nuclear facilities and allow a 50 percent increase in inspections at the Fordow enrichment plant. “We have put a tourniquet on the bleeding,” Grossi declared. However, a joint statement by the IAEA and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran articulated no such commitments. The joint statement did say Tehran “expressed its readiness to continue its cooperation” on “outstanding safeguards issues,” an apparent reference to Iran’s failure to disclose key nuclear activities at undeclared locations. However, the statement identified no specific steps Tehran would take to cooperate. Grossi also failed to receive an explanation from Iran for the IAEA’s recent discovery of particles of uranium enriched to 84 percent purity — just short of atomic weapons-grade — at the Fordow enrichment facility.
IAEA Censure
These developments come as the IAEA Board of Governors meets this week, when they can decide whether to censure Iran for its lack of cooperation with the agency. U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley said on Thursday that Washington would wait for the results of Grossi’s visit before deciding how to proceed. Iran’s record of nuclear mendacity and its apparent effort to feign cooperation with the agency indicate that the United States has ample grounds for Iran’s censure at the IAEA, which could lead to a referral to the United Nations Security Council for countermeasures.

White House Urges UN to Investigate Poisoning of Iran Schoolgirls
Asharq A-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
The White House said Monday an investigation into the recent poisoning of school girls in protest-hit Iran could fall under the mandate of the United Nations. Several hundred cases of gas poisoning have been reported in more than 52 schools across Iran since the end of November, according to an official count. The cases come more than five months after the start of protests that were sparked by the death of Iranian Kurd Mahsa Amini, 22, following her arrest for allegedly breaching the country's strict dress code for women. "If these poisonings are related to participation in protest then it is well within the mandate of the UN independent international fact finding mission on Iran to investigate," said White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre, referring to the body established in November to investigate human rights abuses in Iran. "There must be a credible independent investigation, accountability for those responsible," AFP quoted her as saying at her daily press conference, condemning the poisonings as "unconscionable."For more than three months, hundreds of female pupils have reported suffering symptoms such as shortness of breath, nausea and vertigo after detecting "unpleasant" or "unknown" odors, with some girls being hospitalized. The wave of incidents has sparked fear among parents and calls for authorities to act, with deputy health minister Younes Panahi saying recently the suspected attacks were aimed at shutting down education for girls.

Teachers protest over suspected Iran schoolgirl poisonings
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/JON GAMBRELL/Tue, March 7, 2023
Iranian teachers held protests in several cities on Tuesday over suspected poisonings targeting hundreds of schoolgirls. Security forces broke up several of the demonstrations using water cannons and tear gas, activists said. Meanwhile, prosecutors started filing criminal charges against journalists, activists and others over their comments on the still-unsolved incidents that began in November and escalated in recent days, with dozens of schools reporting suspected cases.
The alleged poisonings come as Iran has faced months of protests over the September death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest by the country's morality police, one of the most-serious challenges to Iran's theocracy since its 1979 Islamic Revolution. These new incidents threaten to again stoke public anger as parents fear for their children's safety. It remains unclear who may be behind the suspected attacks and what chemicals — if any — have been used.
At least 127 schools have reported suspected poisoning cases so far, according to figures compiled by the Tehran-based reformist newspaper Etemad, with dozens reported on one recent day alone. Nearly every school reporting an incident has been a girls’ school.
Activists and Iranian media reports previously have said that over 1,000 students complained of falling ill with at least 400 of them hospitalized. Iranian authorities have offered no exact figures since the crisis began. However, Mohammed Hassan Asefari, a prominent Iranian lawmaker who is on a panel investigating the incidents and has close ties to security forces, told the semiofficial ISNA news agency that as many as 5,000 students have complained of being sickened in 230 schools across 25 of Iran's 31 provinces. No other official or media report has offered figures that high so far.
On Tuesday, online videos and photos purportedly showed teachers demonstrating in a number of Iranian cities, including Ahvaz, Isfahan, Karaj, Mashhad, Rasht, Sanandaj, Saqqez and Shiraz.
Others showed anti-riot police on streets, with some police officers surrounding those demonstrating in Isfahan. Activists identifying themselves as belonging to Iran's Coordinating Council of Teachers Syndicates said police used pepper spray, water cannons and force to disperse protesters in Mashhad, Rasht and Saqqez.
Iranian state media made no mention of Tuesday's demonstrations or of security forces dispersing demonstrators. Teachers have been targeted by security forces and faced arrests for months over protesting in support of their long-standing demands for salary increases amid the collapse of Iran's currency, the rial.
Protesters and others have raised the possibility that religious extremists may be targeting schoolgirls to stop them from receiving educations. Attacks on women have happened in the past in Iran, most recently with a wave of acid attacks in 2014 around Isfahan, at the time believed to have been carried out by hard-liners targeting women for how they dressed. But even in the chaos surrounding the Islamic Revolution, no one targeted schoolgirls for attending classes.
Iran itself also has been calling on the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan to have girls and women return to school.
Determining what's going on in Iran has been difficult. Authorities have detained nearly 100 journalists since the start of the protests in September over the death of the 22-year-old Amini, detained allegedly because of how she was dressed. The targeting of journalists has escalated in recent days amid their reports on the suspected poisonings. Tehran chief prosecutor Ali Salehi said authorities began filing charges against journalists, including editors at the reformist newspapers Hammihan and Shargh, which have led reporting on the suspected poisonings. A news site, activists and others also face charges over allegedly spreading “unreal claims and totally false” statements about the attacks, Salehi said, according to the Iranian judiciary's Mizan news agency. Salehi sought to justify the cases by saying those charged jeopardized the “psychological security” of Iran's citizens. Iran's government, while initially ignoring reports of alleged poisonings back in November, has faced increasing pressure from the public to respond. On Monday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said any culprits connected to the alleged poisonings should be sentenced to death for committing an “unforgivable crime.”
Deputy Interior Minister Majid Mirahmadi told Iranian state television Tuesday that authorities have arrested an unspecified number of suspects over the poisoning incidents. However, officials have made claims about arrests previously that were later denied.
As Iran struggles to respond, international pressure is growing on Tehran to investigate. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday called for a “credible, independent investigation” into the incidents by the United Nations.
“If these poisonings are related to participation in protests, then it is well within (the) mandate of the U.N. independent international fact-finding mission on Iran to investigate,” she said. Iran hasn't acknowledged asking for outside help and has described some of the recent incidents as episodes of “hysteria.”
The World Health Organization documented a similar phenomenon in Afghanistan from 2009 to 2012, when hundreds of girls across the country complained of strange smells and poisoning. No evidence was found to support the suspicions, and WHO said it appeared to be a “mass psychogenic illness.”

Hamas Operatives in Turkey Recruit Palestinians for Terror Attacks
FDD/March 07/2023
Latest Developments
The Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security agency, arrested four Palestinian students from the West Bank on Monday, whom it said were recruited by Hamas operatives in Turkey to carry out terrorist attacks in Israel. The arrests signal that Hamas continues to enjoy operational freedom in Turkey despite Israeli diplomatic efforts to have the terrorist group ousted from that country.
Expert Analysis
“Ankara refuses to designate Hamas as a terrorist organization and continues to allow the organization to exist in Turkey. Both Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader residing in Turkey, and his son have Turkish passports. It is likely that Erdogan wants to keep Hamas in his back pocket as a means of having leverage over Israel as the two countries continue to develop bilateral ties.”
— Sinan Ciddi, FDD Non-Resident Senior Fellow
Training in Turkey and Syria
The Shin Bet stated that one of the suspects, Ahmed Mahmoud Abu Salah, 24, traveled to Turkey for academic purposes. Hamas recruited Salah with the aid of Hamas operative Iyad ‘Adin Aqre. In addition, Salah received weapons training in Turkey and Syria. According to the Shin Bet, before Salah’s return to the West Bank, he met with senior Hamas official Azzam Aqre who directed him to recruit additional terrorists and establish a cell that would carry out terror attacks inside Israel.
The Shin Bet arrested three other students who collaborated with Salah. The group planned to carry out terrorist attacks, including a bombing. According to the Shin Bet, the four students contacted a relative, Abadah Abu Salah, the son of senior Hamas official in Turkey, Salah Abu Salah.he Shin Bet wrote that senior Hamas officials, including Hamas’ West Bank chief Saleh al-Arouri, directed Abadah Abu Salah to take advantage of his family connection with the suspects to recruit them into Hamas.
Hamas Operations in Turkey
In late October, Israel indicted three Israeli citizens for providing intelligence to Hamas operatives in Turkey. Authorities have only identified the suspects by their initials, but said the individuals identified with Hamas ideology and planned to carry out a cyberattack against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The main suspect worked as a software engineer for an Israeli communications firm and met Hamas operatives in Turkey multiple times to transfer sensitive information about Israeli communications infrastructure.
In 2019, Hamas members in Istanbul were actively directing terror attacks against Israeli officials, according to The Daily Telegraph. The Shin Bet arrested Adham Muselmani after Hamas recruited him to carry out a terrorist attack against Israeli officials, including Jerusalem’s mayor at the time, Nir Barkat.

Israeli military caught up in divide over Netanyahu's plan
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP)/Tue, March 7, 2023
Shraga Tichover is hanging up his fatigues. After more than three decades as a reservist in the Israeli military, the paratrooper says he will no longer put his life on the line for a country slipping toward autocracy. Tichover is part of a wave of unprecedented opposition from within the ranks of the Israeli military to a contentious government plan to overhaul the judiciary. Like Tichover, some reservists are refusing to show up for duty and former commanders are defending their actions as a natural response to the impending change.
“The values of this country are going to change. I am not able to serve the military of a state that is not a democracy,” said Tichover, a 53-year-old volunteer reservist who has served in southern Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
The typically taboo talk of defying military orders underlines how deeply the overhaul has divided Israel and is now tearing at what Israeli Jews see as their most respected institution, the military. Concerns are growing that the protest could trickle down to young conscripts as well. In a declaration that has sent shock waves through the country, three dozen reservist fighter pilots said they wouldn't show up for training this week in protest. The airmen are seen as the cream of the military's personnel and irreplaceable elements of many of Israel’s battle plans.
The air force chief, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, met with some 50 squadron leaders last week to listen to their concerns. In a letter sent to pilots afterwards, Bar acknowledged the “difficulties and challenges” the country is facing but said the air force must remain committed to its mission of protecting national security.
The military’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Herzl Halevi, reportedly warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week that the reservists’ protest risks harming the military’s capabilities. Halevi was scheduled to meet with Bar and some 20 pilots later on Tuesday, a day before the expected protest.
For Israel's Jewish majority, most of whom must serve in the military, the army is a source of unity and a rite of passage. Military service is an important launching pad into civilian life and the workforce.
After completing three years of mandatory service, many men continue in the reserves until their 40s, when service becomes voluntary. Most of those threatening to halt their service are volunteers, protecting them from potential punishment.
Recognizing the threat to its stability, the military has pleaded to be kept out of the heated public discourse. But it’s become central to the debate over what kind of Israel will emerge after the overhaul.
Netanyahu, a former soldier in an elite unit, and his government are pushing forward on a plan to weaken the Supreme Court and limit the independence of the judiciary. His allies say the changes are meant to streamline governance, while critics say the plan will upend Israel's system of checks and balances and slide the country toward authoritarianism. They also say Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, is motivated by a personal grudge and has a conflict of interest. The overhaul, which is moving ahead in parliament, has sparked an outcry from business leaders and legal officials. Tens of thousands of protesters have been taking to the streets each week. Not everyone identifies with the soldiers. Critics say the military, as the enforcer of Israel's rule over millions of Palestinians in an open-ended occupation, has subjugated another people and eroded the country's democratic ideals. The reserve units now protesting, including pilots and intelligence units, have been behind deadly strikes or surveillance against Palestinians.
Israel's own Palestinian minority has largely stayed on the sidelines of the anti-government protests, in part because of Israel's treatment of their Palestinian brethren in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.
But Jewish Israelis see the military as a pillar of security in the face of myriad threats. Israel is mired in a bloody round of violence with Palestinians and archenemy Iran is blazing ahead with its nuclear program. Israel says Iran is developing a nuclear bomb — a charge that Tehran denies. Those developments have not stopped the creeping challenge within the military. Israel's pool of reservists are the backbone of the force when security crises erupt. Ehud Barak, a former military chief of staff, defense minister and prime minister, has said it would be acceptable to defy orders from what he calls a dictatorial regime. Dan Halutz, another former military chief, said soldiers won't agree to become “mercenaries for a dictator.”In addition to the protesting pilots, hundreds of reservists have signed letters promising not to serve if the overhaul passes. “Hit the emergency brake now," reservists from the 8200 intelligence unit warned the government in a letter last week. Many 8200 graduates join the country's booming tech sector, also a fierce opponent of the overhaul. A mass protest movement demonstrating against the overhaul has its own reservist contingent. A new group, “Do it Yourself,” is calling on secular families to refuse to allow their children to serve in the occupied West Bank. A group of soldiers has asked permission to join the mass protests. Activists warn that the overhaul is threatening to hurt future morale. “The generations after us will not follow us,” said Eyal Naveh, 47, a reservist from an elite unit and protest leader. “What will a person who halted his reserve duty tell his son? To go to the army or not?”Naveh said reservists are also concerned the changes will leave soldiers exposed to war crimes charges at international courts. One of Israel's defenses against war crimes accusations is that it has an independent legal system capable of investigating any potential wrongdoing. Debate has emerged in the past over whether soldiers ideologically opposed to an order should refuse to carry it out, particularly over the evacuation of Jews from settlements. But the mere suggestion of insubordination is rare.
Tichover, the volunteer reservist, said he struggled during his service with what he called “irrational” orders that harmed Palestinians, like being told to damage Palestinian cars. He said he found ways to skirt around such orders but never overtly defied them.
Late on Monday, Netanyahu met with members of the paramilitary border police force at a base in the occupied West Bank, telling them there was no room for politics in the military. “There is no place for refusal now, and there won't be a place in the future,” he said. Reflecting the military's public standing, opposition leaders have also spoken out against the calls to defy orders. “Do not lend a hand to insubordination,” said Benny Gantz, an opposition leader and former military chief. The looming threat to the military isn't the reservists' protest, said Idit Shafran Gittleman, an expert on the military at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank. She says the overhaul could lead to a constitutional crisis over who is in charge.
“There will be chaos," she said. “The military won’t know who it must take orders from.”

At Least 6 Palestinians Killed during Israeli West Bank Raid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
The Israeli army raided the occupied West Bank city of Jenin on Tuesday, Palestinian health officials said, leading to a gunbattle that killed at least six Palestinians and wounded 10 others. Israeli military officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss events still unfolding, said the army had entered Jenin to arrest suspects involved in the killing of two Israeli brothers in the northern West Bank town of Hawara last week. The army also said it was operating in the nearby flashpoint city of Nablus for the same reason. Residents of Nablus reported that at least two people were arrested before the army withdrew. The Jenin brigade, a loosely organized armed group based in the refugee camp, said its gunmen were shooting and throwing explosive devices at Israeli soldiers who had surrounded a house in the refugee camp. Videos showed black smoke billowing from the house after the militant group reported that the army fired missiles at the house when the suspects refused to surrender, the militant group reported. The Palestinian Health Ministry said six people were shot and killed, including 26-year-old Mohammed Ghazawi, and at least 10 others wounded. The ministry did not immediately offer further details on the other five killed.
The militant group said on Telegram that its fighters shot down two Israeli drones, posting pictures of young men cheering wildly and taking selfies as they held the charred aircraft aloft. The Israeli military said it was aware of the reports but declined to immediately comment.
Tuesday's raid was the latest in a string of deadly arrest operations by the Israeli military in the northern West Bank, as violence and deaths in the occupied territory surge to the highest levels seen in years. Over the last year of near-daily Israeli military raids, the densely populated Jenin refugee camp has emerged as a hub of militant activity.
More than 60 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire this year, about half of them gunmen, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Palestinian attacks against Israelis have killed 14 Israelis, all but one of them civilians, during that same time. Last month, a rare daytime military raid in the Old City of Nablus targeting the Lion's Den, a recently formed militant group, sparked an hourslong gunfight that left 10 Palestinians dead. Palestinian armed groups said that six of the casualties were gunmen. Others appeared to be bystanders. Earlier on Tuesday, Israel’s far-right national security minister joined Jewish revelers in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, dancing with residents from the hard-line settler community as they celebrated the holiday of Purim. Itamar Ben-Gvir — dressed in a costume combining elements of various uniforms of forces under his command — danced, sang and took selfies with party-goers and soldiers at an event in an Israeli settlement in Hebron. Ben-Gvir, an ultranationalist politician in Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government, lives in an adjacent settlement.
It was the latest show of force by ultranationalist settlers in the occupied West Bank, who have been bolstered by Ben-Gvir and other allies in the new Israeli government. Overnight, settlers injured a Palestinian man in the same Palestinian town where a settler mob burned cars and houses last week.
Hebron is a contested city that is home to the Tomb of the Patriarchs, a site considered holy to Muslims, Christians and Jews. Hundreds of hard-line settlers live in fortified enclaves under military protection in the heart of a city of more than 200,000 Palestinians. Tuesday's celebration came under heavy security and passed from a settlement to the Israeli-controlled downtown area, where Palestinians have been evicted or forced to close shops over the years. Ben-Gvir, who leads a small ultranationalist faction in Netanyahu’s government, has been a well-known face in Hebron for many years. Before entering office, he was arrested dozens of times and was once convicted of incitement and supporting a Jewish terrorist group. Until recently, he hung a photo in his living room of Baruch Goldstein, a radical Jewish settler who in 1994 killed 29 Palestinians during prayers in the tomb, known to Muslims as the Ibrahimi Mosque. The shooting happened on Purim that year. Ben-Gvir, surrounded by bodyguards on Tuesday, is now a prominent figure in Israel's government, which includes leading members of the settler movement. He held a child and shook hands with the crowd as he explained the significance of his costume. “We love all of you, members of the security forces,” he said. The celebrations came at a time of heightened tensions between Israelis and Palestinians across the West Bank. Jewish settlers wounded a Palestinian man in a flashpoint town of Hawara late Monday that was torched in a settler rampage last week, medics said. The town, where a Palestinian shot and killed two Israeli brothers, was the scene of the worst settler-led attack in decades on Feb. 26, as mobs of Israeli settlers set buildings and cars on fire in revenge for the shooting.
Late Monday, a group of settlers came to the main Hawara thoroughfare in a van, blasting music in what Palestinian officials described as a provocation. Monday evening marked the beginning of Purim, which is typically celebrated with costumes and revelry.
Ghassan Daghlas, a Palestinian official who monitors Israeli settlements in the northern West Bank, said several Israeli settlers attacked a supermarket. Paramedics said that one man was treated for a head injury. Security camera footage from near the shop appeared to show Israeli settlers throwing rocks at it, and Palestinians hurling stones back. Outside, Israeli men dressed in black are seen hurling stones and pounding the windows of a car with people inside. Amateur video footage appeared to show Israeli settlers dancing with soldiers on the main Hawara road, alongside a van with the words “Happy Purim” emblazoned on the side. The army said the soldiers’ conduct was “not aligned with the behavior expected” and that the incident was under review. Israel captured the West Bank, along with the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem, in the 1967 Mideast war, territories the Palestinians seek for their future state. In the decades since, more than 500,000 Jewish settlers have moved into dozens of settlements, which the international community considers illegal and an obstacle to peace.

Israelis, Palestinians clash in flashpoint West Bank town
JERUSALEM (AP)/Tue, March 7, 2023
Israeli settlers and Palestinians clashed in a flashpoint town in the occupied West Bank that was torched by settlers last week. A Palestinian man was lightly injured in the incident, medics said. The incident on Monday night was the latest in a long string of violence over the past year, which has seen some of the worst Israeli-Palestinian fighting in recent years. On Feb. 26, a Palestinian gunman killed two Israeli brothers in the town of Hawara in northern West Bank, and in response, a mob of Israeli settlers set buildings and cars on fire. The Israeli military said there were “several violent confrontations between Palestinians and Israeli civilians” in Hawara on Monday night, and that soldiers dispersed the crowds. Ghassan Daghlas, a Palestinian official who monitors Israeli settlements in the northern West Bank, said several Israeli settlers attacked a supermarket. Paramedics said that one man was treated for a head injury. Security camera footage from near the shop appeared to show Israeli settlers throwing rocks at it, and Palestinians hurling stones back. Outside, Israeli men dressed in black are seen hurling stones and pounding the windows of a car with occupants inside. Initially, Palestinian officials said, a group of settlers came to the main Hawara thoroughfare in a van, blasting music in what they described as a “provocation.” Monday evening marked the Jewish holiday of Purim, which is typically celebrated with costumes and revelry. Amateur video footage appeared to show Israeli settlers dancing with soldiers on the main Hawara road, alongside a van with the words “Happy Purim” emblazoned on the side. The army said the soldiers' conduct was "not aligned with the behavior expected” and that the incident was under review. Local Palestinian residents protested nearby, shouting “God is great,” in Arabic. Israeli media said Palestinians also threw rocks at Israeli cars passing through Hawara, damaging four vehicles. More than 60 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire this year, about half of them militants, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Palestinian attacks against Israelis have killed 14 Israelis during that same time. It has been one of the deadliest periods between Israelis and Palestinians in years. Israel captured the West Bank, along with the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem, in the 1967 Mideast war, territories the Palestinians seek for their future state. In the decades since, more than 500,000 Jewish settlers have moved into dozens of settlements, which the international community considers illegal and an obstacle to peace.

Israeli military caught up in divide over Netanyahu's plan
Associated Press/Tue, March 7, 2023
Shraga Tichover is hanging up his fatigues. After more than three decades as a reservist in the Israeli military, the paratrooper says he will no longer put his life on the line for a country slipping toward autocracy. Tichover is part of a wave of unprecedented opposition from within the ranks of the Israeli military to a contentious government plan to overhaul the judiciary. Like Tichover, some reservists are refusing to show up for duty and former commanders are defending their actions as a natural response to the impending change. "The values of this country are going to change. I am not able to serve the military of a state that is not a democracy," said Tichover, a 53-year-old volunteer reservist who has served in southern Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The typically taboo talk of defying military orders underlines how deeply the overhaul has divided Israel and is now tearing at what Israeli Jews see as their most respected institution, the military. Concerns are growing that the protest could trickle down to young conscripts as well. In a declaration that has sent shock waves through the country, three dozen reservist fighter pilots said they wouldn't show up for training this week in protest. The airmen are seen as the cream of the military's personnel and irreplaceable elements of many of Israel's battle plans. The military's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Herzl Halevi, reportedly warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week that the reservists' protest risks harming the military's capabilities. For Israel's Jewish majority, most of whom must serve in the military, the army is a source of unity and a rite of passage. Military service is an important launching pad into civilian life and the workforce. After completing three years of mandatory service, many men continue in the reserves until their 40s, when service becomes voluntary. Most of those threatening to halt their service are volunteers, protecting them from potential punishment.
Recognizing the threat to its stability, the military has pleaded to be kept out of the heated public discourse. But it's become central to the debate over what kind of Israel will emerge after the overhaul.
Netanyahu, a former soldier in an elite unit, and his government are pushing forward on a plan to weaken the Supreme Court and limit the independence of the judiciary. His allies say the changes are meant to streamline governance, while critics say the plan will upend Israel's system of checks and balances and slide the country toward authoritarianism. They also say Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, is motivated by a personal grudge and has a conflict of interest. The overhaul, which is moving ahead in parliament, has sparked an outcry from business leaders and legal officials. Tens of thousands of protesters have been taking to the streets each week.
Not everyone identifies with the soldiers. Critics say the military, as the enforcer of Israel's rule over millions of Palestinians in an open-ended occupation, has subjugated another people and eroded the country's democratic ideals. The reserve units now protesting, including pilots and intelligence units, have been behind deadly strikes or surveillance against Palestinians. Israel's own Palestinian minority has largely stayed on the sidelines of the anti-government protests, in part because of Israel's treatment of their Palestinian brethren in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.
But Jewish Israelis see the military as a pillar of security in the face of myriad threats. Israel is mired in a bloody round of violence with Palestinians and archenemy Iran is blazing ahead with its nuclear program. Israel says Iran is developing a nuclear bomb — a charge that Tehran denies. Those developments have not stopped the creeping challenge within the military. Israel's pool of reservists are the backbone of the force when security crises erupt. Ehud Barak, a former military chief of staff, defense minister and prime minister, has said it would be acceptable to defy orders from what he calls a dictatorial regime. Dan Halutz, another former military chief, said soldiers won't agree to become "mercenaries for a dictator." In addition to the protesting pilots, hundreds of reservists have signed letters promising not to serve if the overhaul passes. "Hit the emergency brake now," reservists from the 8200 intelligence unit warned the government in a letter last week. Many 8200 graduates join the country's booming tech sector, also a fierce opponent of the overhaul. A mass protest movement demonstrating against the overhaul has its own reservist contingent. A new group, "Do it Yourself," is calling on secular families to refuse to allow their children to serve in the occupied West Bank. A group of soldiers has asked permission to join the mass protests.
Activists warn that the overhaul is threatening to hurt future morale.
"The generations after us will not follow us," said Eyal Naveh, 47, a reservist from an elite unit and protest leader. "What will a person who halted his reserve duty tell his son? To go to the army or not?" Naveh said reservists are also concerned the changes will leave soldiers exposed to war crimes charges at international courts. One of Israel's defenses against war crimes accusations is that it has an independent legal system capable of investigating any potential wrongdoing. Debate has emerged in the past over whether soldiers ideologically opposed to an order should refuse to carry it out, particularly over the evacuation of Jews from settlements. But the mere suggestion of insubordination is rare. Tichover, the volunteer reservist, said he struggled during his service with what he called "irrational" orders that harmed Palestinians, like being told to damage Palestinian cars. He said he found ways to skirt around such orders but never overtly defied them. Late on Monday, Netanyahu met with members of the paramilitary border police force at a base in the occupied West Bank, telling them there was no room for politics in the military. "There is no place for refusal now, and there won't be a place in the future," he said. Reflecting the military's public standing, opposition leaders have also spoken out against the calls to defy orders. "Do not lend a hand to insubordination," said Benny Gantz, an opposition leader and former military chief. The looming threat to the military isn't the reservists' protest, said Idit Shafran Gittleman, an expert on the military at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank. She says the overhaul could lead to a constitutional crisis over who is in charge. "There will be chaos," she said. "The military won't know who it must take orders from."

Zelensky says Ukraine is reinforcing Bakhmut positions, not withdrawing. Here's why that may pay off.
Peter Weber, Senior editor/The Week/Tue, March 7, 2023
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said late Monday that after meeting with Ukraine's top commander and the commander of eastern forces, all three agreed on "continuing the defense operation and further strengthening our positions in Bakhmut," the flattened city in eastern Ukraine that Russian forces have been trying to capture for eight months. The losses have been tremendous, especially on the Russian side. "Do not withdraw," Zelensky said in his nightly address, summarizing the clear directives from the generals. "Reinforce."Russia's Wagner mercenaries and regular Russian forces have surrounded Bakhmut on three sides, though a Ukrainian counteroffensive over the weekend reinforced the main supply — and escape — route. Ukrainian forces have completely withdrawn "from the roughly one-third of the city's area that sits on the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River," The Wall Street Journal reports, and "are concentrating on holding the central and western parts of the city, with easily defensible positions." The fighting is so close-quartered that hand-to-hand combat is not uncommon, Ukrainian soldiers say. "Ukraine has been able to use Bakhmut as a kill box to grind down the vast numbers of newly mobilized Russian soldiers" and Wagner forces, The New York Times reports. Wagner sends waves of untrained recruits to their certain death, and when Ukraine troops are exhausted and their positions exposed, the elite Russian troops try to gain territory. "It's a working tactic," acknowledged Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine's eastern ground forces. "It's based on constant advancement, however slight, and takes absolutely no account of human losses."
Several Western analysts have suggested that Ukraine would be better off withdrawing from Bakhmut to conserve troops and ammunition for a planned spring offensive. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Monday that Bakhmut "is more of a symbolic value than it is strategic and operational value," and a potential Ukrainian pullback "won't necessarily mean that the Russians have changed the tide of this fight."Austin is right that "Bakhmut is not intrinsically significant operationally or strategically," and losing it would not be "of major operational or strategic concern to Ukraine," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank assessed. "But Ukraine's fight for Bakhmut has become strategically significant," because Ukraine is now grinding down not just Wagner prison recruits but also "elite elements of the Wagner Group and from Russian airborne units."
Wagner may not have enough men and ammunition to capture Bahkmut, ISW added. But either way, degrading Wagner's forces — its best troops and its "cannon fodder" — and elite Russian forces in an arena so favorable to Ukraine means "they will not be available for more important fights" to come.

Russia is losing 5 of its soldiers for every Ukrainian it kills in the war's bloodiest battle, NATO official tells CNN
Joshua Zitser/Business Insider/Tue, March 7, 2023
Russia has lost at least five soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier killed in Bakhmut. This is according to an informed estimate by a NATO official who spoke to CNN. Ukraine has also suffered significant losses while defending the ruined city, the official said.
The Russian effort to take Bakhmut, a former salt-mining city in eastern Ukraine, has become one of the longest and bloodiest battles in the war. And NATO intelligence estimates suggest it has been especially bloody for the Russian side. Russian forces have lost at least five soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier killed while defending Bakhmut, a military official with NATO told CNN on Monday. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the five-to-one ratio was an informed estimate based on Western intelligence. The official told CNN that although the ratio was favorable to Ukraine, it had also suffered significant losses. The unnamed official wasn't the only one to highlight Russian casualties around the city. Over the weekend, Oleksiy Danilev, the secretary of Ukraine's national security council, claimed an even higher ratio. He said that Russia had lost potentially seven times as many soldiers as Ukraine in Bakhmut, per The New York Times. However, both sides are known to inflate the other country's casualty figures, and no independent and reliable death toll exists. Battles around Bakhmut have raged for seven months, with thousands dying and the city now lying in ruin. Trench warfare and the intensity of the fighting have led some to compare the battle to fighting in World War I. Volodymyr Nazarenko, a senior Ukrainian commander, described the situation in the city as "utter hell" in a Telegram on Sunday, per Reuters. Initially, Russian forces fighting in Bakhmut were largely drawn from the pro-Kremlin Wagner Group mercenary army, many of them convicted criminals who were used as little more than cannon fodder, The Washington Post reported. But The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a Monday update that Russian forces have now committed higher-quality special forces operators in a bid to take control of the city. Over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, complained about "shell hunger" and a lack of support from the regular army, Insider's Mia Jankowicz reported. He added that Russia's entire front line would collapse if Bakhmut wasn't taken.
But according to the ISW assessment, taking Bakhmut is not "intrinsically significant operationally or strategically" for Russia to win the war, nor would the loss of the city be a strategic setback for Ukraine. That hasn't stopped both sides from throwing equipment and manpower at it, even as the death toll rises.

Russia’s Shoigu: Capture of Bakhmut Will Allow Further Offensives in Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that the seizure of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine was critical to punching a hole in Ukrainian defenses and would allow Moscow's forces to mount further offensive operations deeper inside the country. Russian forces have been waging an intense campaign for months to seize control of the small city in what would become their first significant territorial advance since last summer. "The liberation of Artyomovsk continues," Shoigu said in televised remarks, using the old Soviet-era name for Bakhmut. "The city is an important hub for defending Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. Taking it under control will allow further offensive actions to be conducted deep into Ukraine's defensive lines," Shoigu said. The heavily industrialized Donbas region of eastern Ukraine comprises Donetsk and Luhansk, which are both claimed by Russia along with two other Ukrainian regions as its own territory, claims Kyiv and the West reject as illegal. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group which has been spearheading the battle for the city, said last Friday his forces had "practically surrounded" Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops will keep defending the city, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday. Shoigu said the West was increasing its arms deliveries to Ukraine but that would not change the course of events on the battlefield. "NATO countries' support for the Kyiv regime will not lead to success for Ukrainian troops on the battlefield," he said, saying Russian forces were inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian troops. Both Kyiv and Moscow have said they have killed significant numbers of enemy troops in the battle for Bakhmut. Reuters is unable to verify accounts of battlefield losses. While military analysts treat both sides' claims of fatalities and casualties with skepticism, it is acknowledged that the months-long fight for control of Bakhmut has turned into one of the bloodiest campaigns of the year-long war.

Senior Russian Officers Are Refusing To Fight After Facing Such Intense Losses, Ukraine Claims
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/Tue, March 7, 2023 T
Ukrainian servicemen fire an artillery cannon aiming to Russian positions in the frontline nearby Bakhmut in Donbas, Ukraine, March 5th, 2023. Russian officers have reportedly refused to fight in the east of Ukraine after facing heavy losses on the battlefield. Ukrainian officials told newspaper the Kyiv Post that senior Russian officers who were previously an elite part of the Moscow’s forces, have rejected orders to continue attacking the Ukrainian town of of Vuhledar. Allegedly, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet has suffered around 300 casualties a day over the last three weeks. This Russian marine brigade was originally a leading part of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine last February, but since then, they’ve been torn apart again and again on the battlefield by their opponents. A think tank, The Institute for the Study of War, believes that the entire battalion has been rebuilt around seven times over the last year, with poorly equipped conscripts filling in the gaps. The troops subsequently still face heavy losses, as videos on social media prove. The Ukrainian military told the Kyiv Post: “The leaders of the brigade and senior officers are refusing to proceed with a new senseless attack as demanded by their unskilled commanders – to storm well-defended Ukrainian positions with little protection or preparation.” Two units – the Steppe and Tiger Cossack Battalion – have also reportedly refused to take part, adding to the ongoing idea that Russian troops are demoralised and struggling.
It all comes after Russia allegedly lost around 130 tanks and armoured vehicles in the ongoing conflict around Vuhledar. But, this is not the only site where Russia is struggling to make any progress either. Nato has also claimed that Russian losses are much higher than Ukraine’s in Bakhmut, a self-mining town slightly north to Vuhledar. Russia is particularly keen to claim it because it would be able to mount further offensive operations into Ukraine. According to a Nato source who spoke to CNN on Monday, there is a five to one death ratio for Russian to Ukrainian soldiers in this area. The UK’s Ministry of Defence also warned in its daily intelligence briefing on Tuesday: “The Ukrainian defence of Bakhmut continues to degrade forces on both sides. “Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces likely stabilised their defensive perimeter following previous Russian advance into the north of the town.”The MoD then hinted that Ukraine might be struggling too, explaining: “Muddy conditions are likely hampering Ukrainian resupply efforts as they increasingly resort to using unpaved tracks.” Meanwhile, the public disagreements between the mercenaries in the Wagner Group and Russian ministry of defence over the allocations of munitions continue to undermine authority within Russian ranks. The MoD suggested this “highlights the difficulty in sustaining the high levels of personnel and ammunition required to advance with their current tactics”.

Ukraine’s secret weapon should terrify Putin
Colonel Richard Kemp/The Telegraph/March 7, 2023
A shocking video has been circulating in the last few days that appears to show a Ukrainian prisoner of war being gunned down by his Russian captors as he utters what he knows are the last words he will ever say: “Slava Ukraini” – glory to Ukraine. This image of heroic defiance against appalling brutality should send a chilling message to Vladimir Putin after a year of butchery in Ukraine: you can murder and torture us all you like, but you cannot defeat our will to fight. This defiance is the opposite of what Putin expected when his forces rolled into Ukraine last February. His “special military operation” was not planned as a war at all: it was an armed, psychological action intended to instil fear, install a puppet regime, and bring the country back to heel. That’s why he attacked with too few forces to defeat a determined opponent. Putin’s intelligence services, led by the FSB, successors to his own KGB, told him that Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome the invaders with open arms. Russia’s security services had been paid vast sums over many years to ensure that this would happen, and to position collaborators to take over the government and whip opponents into line (or do away with them). Before the invasion, the FSB knew that they were on shaky ground, with sources giving them a very different picture. But how were they to explain that to the Kremlin after all the resources that had been ploughed into subverting Ukraine? Indeed, it turned out Russia’s intelligence agencies were wrong on all counts. Collaborators in Kyiv and elsewhere did not deliver the goods. Woefully ill-prepared Russian forces encountered a level of resistance that took them by surprise, including subsequently in Russian-speaking areas where partisans have been fighting against them. And it was not only Russia that was left humbled by its initial intelligence failures. The assessment of US agencies, in an inversion of their over-confident predictions about Afghan forces’ ability to hold out against the Taliban, was that Ukraine would quickly collapse. How did the Ukrainians prove both the Russians and the Americans so wrong? The answer to that question takes us back to the murder of the unknown soldier in the Ukrainian woods. Morale, which he symbolised even at the point of death, is the linchpin of success in war. Shaun Pinner, a former British infantryman who fought at Mariupol as a Ukrainian contract marine, says no amount of money, threats or cajoling can force a man to fight, knowing he might die. Morale is achieved by strong leadership, team cohesion that makes you risk your life for the man to your left and your right, knowledge that your family and your country depend on the fight you put up, and the belief that what you are doing is right. Pinner witnessed the infectiousness of high morale. It led him and his comrades to fiercely hold out at Mariupol for so long. The incompetently led Russian troops, many of whom have no idea what they’re fighting for despite the propaganda they are fed, lack any such advantage. There are stories of some being forced into battle at gunpoint. High morale and fighting spirit, however, are not enough on their own, as the French learned to their cost in 1940. Their collapse was due above all to intelligence failure, poor strategic leadership, and operational and tactical inferiority to the Wehrmacht. Thankfully Ukraine does not have these failings. One of the most important reasons Putin’s plans were frustrated last February was Zelensky’s leadership, remaining in Kyiv and rallying the country by his own example. His army, trained by the West, has the operational and tactical upper hand over the sclerotic Russians. Ukrainian military intelligence has proved exceptionally successful, thanks in part to direct input from Britain and the US. Of course, Ukraine has also been kept in the fight by Western money and arms. This support, which again Putin failed to anticipate, does not just equip troops to fight but is also fundamentally important for morale. On that, Afghanistan provides a salutary lesson for Ukraine today. Having fought hard for years, in 2021 the Afghan forces disintegrated the minute that the Americans pulled out.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former infantry commander

Ukraine asks US to send cluster bomb munitions for use with drones
Arthur Scott-Geddes/The Telegraph/Tue, March 7, 2023
Ukraine wants to increase the lethality of its makeshift attack drones by arming them with the deadly anti-tank weapons contained in US-made cluster bombs, US politicians say. Kyiv has requested that Washington sends it cluster bombs so it can disassemble them and use drones to drop the mini-explosives on Russian troops. Cluster bombs contain large numbers of smaller bomblets, or submunitions, which are spread over a wide area, causing massive destruction. The request for the munitions, which are widely banned, was revealed by Jason Crow and Adam Smith, who both serve on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee. Ukraine’s forces have already used drones to attack Russian tanks and trenches to great effect, with even simple hand grenades proving devastating to Soviet-era vehicles left with their hatches open.
But, unlike the improvised explosives Ukraine has adapted for use from drones, the bomblets of the CBU-100 were specifically designed to punch through heavy armour. The Ukrainian military believes cluster bomb submunitions "have better armour-piercing capability" than the weapons it has already been dropping from drones, said Mr Smith. Each 600 grammes (21.1 ounces) submunition contains a shaped-charge warhead which focuses the effects of the relatively small explosive payload onto a smaller area. As a result, they are said to be capable of penetrating 7.5 inches (19 centimetres) of armour.
Non-cluster employment
Mr Crow, a US Army veteran, said he might back sending the CBU-100 to Ukraine if Kyiv promised to remove the bomblets and "use them in a non-cluster employment". But Ukraine’s plan is likely to face strong opposition. Asked if the Biden administration was likely to sign off on sending cluster weapons to Kyiv, Mr Smith said: “That’s not going to happen.”Cluster bombs have been banned by more than 120 countries around the world including most of Nato. The weapons can threaten civilians because the bomblets often fail to explode as intended and can pose a danger for years after a conflict has ended.
However, the United States, Russia and Ukraine all declined to join a 2008 pact prohibiting the production, use and stockpiling of cluster munitions. Ukrainian and Russian forces both have used such weapons since Russia first seized Ukrainian territory in 2014, according to news reports and human rights groups. The CBU-100 contains more than 240 submunitions, and there are thought to be more than a million of the bombs in US stockpiles.

China warns U.S. to stop suppression or risk 'conflict'
Ryan Woo/BEIJING (Reuters)/Mon, March 6, 2023
The United States should change its "distorted" attitude towards China or "conflict and confrontation" will follow, China's foreign minister said on Tuesday, while defending its stance on the war in Ukraine and defending its close ties with Russia.
The U.S. had been engaging in suppression and containment of China rather than engaging in fair, rule-based competition, Foreign Minister Qin Gang told a news conference on the sidelines of an annual parliament meeting in Beijing. "The United States' perception and views of China are seriously distorted," said Qin, a trusted aide to President Xi Jinping and until recently China's ambassador in Washington.
"It regards China as its primary rival and the most consequential geopolitical challenge. This is like the first button in the shirt being put wrong."Relations between the two superpowers have been tense for years over a number of issues including Taiwan, trade and more recently the war in Ukraine but they worsened last month after the United States shot down a balloon off the U.S. East Coast that it says was a Chinese spying craft. The U.S. says it is establishing guardrails for relations and is not seeking conflict but Qin said what that meant in practice was that China was not supposed to respond with words or action when slandered or attacked. "That is just impossible," Qin told his first news conference since becoming foreign minister in late December. Qin's comments struck the same the tough tone of his predecessor, Wang Yi, now China's most senior diplomat after being made director of the Foreign Affairs Commission Office at the turn of the year. "If the United States does not hit the brakes, and continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailment, which will become conflict and confrontation, and who will bear the catastrophic consequences?"U.S. officials often speak of establishing guardrails in the bilateral relationship to prevent tensions from escalating into crises. Qin likened Sino-U.S. competition to a race between two Olympic athletes. "If one side, instead of focusing on giving one's best, always tries to trip the other up, even to the extent that they must enter the Paralympics, then this is not fair competition," he said.
'JACKALS AND WOLVES'
During a nearly two-hour news conference in which he answered questions submitted in advance, Qin made a robust defence of "wolf warrior diplomacy", an assertive and often abrasive stance adopted by China's diplomats since 2020. "When jackals and wolves are blocking the way, and hungry wolves are attacking us, Chinese diplomats must then dance with the wolves and protect and defend our home and country," he said. Qin also said that an "invisible hand" was pushing for the escalation of the war in Ukraine "to serve certain geopolitical agendas", without specifying who he was referring to.
He reiterated China's call for dialogue to end the war. China struck a "no limits" partnership with Russia last year, weeks before its invasion of Ukraine, and China has blamed NATO expansion for triggering the war, echoing Russia's complaint. China has declined to condemn the invasion and has fiercely defended its stance on Ukraine, despite Western criticism of its failure to single Russia out as the aggressor. China has also vehemently denied U.S. accusations that it has been considering supplying Russia with weapons.
ADVANCING RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW
Qin said China had to advance its relations with Russia as the world becomes more turbulent and close interactions between President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, anchored the neighbours' relations. He did not give a definite answer when asked if Xi would visit Russia after China's parliament session, which goes on for one more week. Since Russia invaded its southwestern neighbour a year ago Xi has held talks several times with Putin, but not with his Ukrainian counterpart. This undermines China's claim of neutrality in the conflict, Kyiv's top diplomat in Beijing said last month.
Asked whether it was possible that China and Russia would abandon the U.S. dollar and euro for bilateral trade, Qin said countries should use whatever currency was efficient, safe and credible. China has been looking to internationalise its currency, the yuan, which gained popularity in Russia last year after Western sanctions shut Russia's banks and many of its companies out of the dollar and euro payment systems. "Currencies should not be the trump card for unilateral sanctions, still less a disguise for bullying or coercion," Qin said.

In Iraq, German Minister Condemns Iran’s Cross-Border Attacks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
Iranian missile attacks across the Iraqi border are unacceptable and put both civilians and regional stability at risk, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on a visit to the Iraqi capital nearly 20 years after the US-led invasion. "With its missile attacks, the Iranian regime shows not only that it recklessly and brutally suppresses its own people, it also puts human life and the stability of the whole region at risk to hold on to power," she said on Tuesday. "It is unacceptable and dangerous for the whole region," she told a news conference with her Iraqi counterpart. Last year, Tehran fired missiles at bases of Kurdish groups in northern Iraq it accuses of involvement in protests against its restrictions on women, displacing hundreds of Iranian Kurds and killing some. Iran has for years refuted Western claims it is a destabilizing influence in the region. Tehran has accused Western countries of orchestrating unrest and has accused protesters in ethnic minority regions of working on behalf of separatist groups. Baerbock, visiting Iraq on the same day as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, said she was sending a signal that Europe's biggest economy wanted deeper cooperation with Iraq.
She said she would discuss Iraq's security and stability, the question of Yazidis, and cooperation on climate change.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 07-08/2023
How Biden Subverts Israeli Democracy
Caroline Glick/Gatestone Institute./March 07/2023
The Movement for Quality Government (MQG) in Israel is the far-left organization at the epicenter of the Israeli left's war against the Netanyahu government. MQG began its current campaign of delegitimization, subversion and demonization immediately after the Netanyahu government was sworn into office on December 29. The next day, MQG petitioned the Supreme Court to prevent Shas leader Aryeh Deri from serving as a minister in the government.
There was no legal basis for the petition. But that didn't bother the lawyers at MQG.
Like MQG, the Supreme Court justices didn't bother giving a legal basis for their decision.... The justices said Deri's appointment was "unreasonable," and with a stroke of a pen, the court retroactively disenfranchised Shas voters.
Building on its success, late last month MQG submitted a new petition asking the justices to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Never mind that the justices have a conflict of interest since it is their powers the government's proposed reforms would check. Never mind that in a bid to prevent politicized judges and prosecutors from overturning the will of the voters, the law explicitly permits prime ministers to serve not only while standing trial, but even if convicted. And never mind that the charges against Netanyahu have fallen apart in Jerusalem District Court.
Someone is paying tens of millions of shekels to rent buses to transport scores of thousands of people to rallies, buy them flags, print banners and signs, rent stages and sound systems, and finance ad campaigns in every newspaper and on billboards across the country.
Whoever is footing the bill, the front group for all of it is MQG.
MQG's only named donor on its annual reports is the U.S. State Department.
Since MQG's primary activity is subverting democracy in Israel by waging lawfare and sowing chaos in a bid to block democratically elected right-wing governments from fulfilling their pledges to voters, it's fairly clear that when MQG refers to "democracy education," it doesn't mean majority rule.
Since its first day in office the Biden administration has demonized its political opponents as "semi-fascists" and threats to democracy. Biden governs without regard for his political opponents, and at least in the case of his open borders policy, in contravention of federal law.
Perhaps Biden is driven by jealousy. Two-thirds of Israelis support judicial and legal reform. Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of immigration and inflation. A large majority of Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy, foreign policy and crime issues. Biden could only dream of having as broad a consensus of support for his policies as Netanyahu has for his.
During a visits to Israel last month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken took the unprecedented step of lecturing Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in front of television cameras about how democracy works, as if Netanyahu were a tin pot despot rather than the leader of the Middle East's only democracy, the U.S.'s most powerful ally in the region. Pictured: Blinken (L) and Netanyahu at a joint press conference on January 30, 2023 in Jerusalem, Israel. (Photo by Debbie Hill/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
The Movement for Quality Government (MQG) in Israel is the far-left organization at the epicenter of the Israeli left's war against the Netanyahu government. MQG began its current campaign of delegitimization, subversion and demonization immediately after the Netanyahu government was sworn into office on December 29. The next day, MQG petitioned the Supreme Court to prevent Shas leader Aryeh Deri from serving as a minister in the government.
There was no legal basis for the petition. But that didn't bother the lawyers at MQG.
In its petition, MQG claimed that the terms of a plea deal Deri reached with the State Prosecution last year on tax reporting errors barred him from serving as a minister. Never mind that nothing in the plea deal stipulated anything of the sort or that 400,000 Israeli voters cast their ballots for Shas with the full expectation that Deri would serve as a senior minister.
Like MQG, the Supreme Court justices didn't bother giving a legal basis for their decision to act on MQG's petition and bar Deri from serving as a cabinet minister. The justices said Deri's appointment was "unreasonable," and with a stroke of a pen, the court retroactively disenfranchised Shas voters.
Building on its success, late last month MQG submitted a new petition asking the justices to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As in the case of Deri, MQG's petition is based on a political rather than a legal argument. MQG argues that as a criminal defendant, Netanyahu is unfit to serve. The premier, MQG insists, is acting with a conflict of interest by overseeing judicial reforms while on trial. And as a result, the justices should declare him unfit and remove him from office.
Never mind that the justices have a conflict of interest since it is their powers the government's proposed reforms would check. Never mind that in a bid to prevent politicized judges and prosecutors from overturning the will of the voters, the law explicitly permits prime ministers to serve not only while standing trial, but even if convicted. And never mind that the charges against Netanyahu have fallen apart in Jerusalem District Court.
MQG saw with the Deri ruling that the justices feel no inclination to respect either the law or the will of the voters when their personal interests are at stake. And indeed, last week, Justice Daphne Barak-Erez gave the attorney general and the government a month to explain why the court shouldn't overturn the votes of 2.4 million Israelis who voted for Likud and its coalition partners to return Netanyahu to the Prime Minister's Office.
In a withering response to Barak-Erez's order, Justice Minister Yariv Levin described MQG as "a gang of lawyers who do not respect the outcome of the election, working to carry out a coup and remove the prime minister from office."
Levin continued:
"It's not surprising that the partners in this effort are the same ones leading the opposition to judicial reform: the leftist group which refers to itself as the Movement for Quality Government, the attorney general and the Supreme Court. This effort to oust the prime minister in contravention of the law, while trampling on the democratic election, is no different from a coup that is carried out with tanks. The goal is the same. The outcome is the same."
Lawfare, or the use of the language of law and the judicial process to achieve political, rather than legal, outcomes, isn't the only aspect of the left's current campaign to overturn the election results where MQG is leading the charge. The movement is also the primary organizer and sponsor of the mass protests against judicial reform. The speakers at the rallies stand under the MQG banner when they call for insurgency, civil war and violence.
Since the media, as full partners in MQG's efforts, are working now as full-time propagandists, no one is asking the organizers who finances their activities. Someone is paying tens of millions of shekels to rent buses to transport scores of thousands of people to rallies, buy them flags, print banners and signs, rent stages and sound systems, and finance ad campaigns in every newspaper and on billboards across the country.
Whoever is footing the bill, the front group for all of it is MQG.
A look at MQG's funding reports on the Government Registrar of Non-Profits website doesn't reveal much. MQG's private and institutional donors are unnamed. But under the law, all registered nonprofits are required to report funding they receive from foreign governments. So MQG's only named donor on its annual reports is the U.S. State Department.
According to MQG's annual reports, for the past three years the State Department has been funding its programs for "democracy education" in Israeli high schools. Since MQG's primary activity is subverting democracy in Israel by waging lawfare and sowing chaos in a bid to block democratically elected right-wing governments from fulfilling their pledges to voters, it's fairly clear that when MQG refers to "democracy education," it doesn't mean majority rule.
In this week's Caroline Glick Show, parents' rights activist Roni Sassover explained that "democracy" curricula like those promoted by MQG are disguised efforts to subvert Israeli democracy. In the case of its school programs, the subversion comes in the form of post-Zionist indoctrination.
While claiming to oppose religious coercion, the actual goal of the "democracy curricula" is twofold. First, it seeks to bar Jewish Israeli schoolchildren in nonreligious public schools from learning about the Bible, Jewish history, religious traditions and holidays. Second, it strives to replace Judaism with post-Zionist curricula. To the extent Judaism is taught, it is taught from a critical perspective.
Similar to Critical Race Theory curricula in the United States, which indoctrinates American schoolchildren to believe their country was born in the sin of racism and has no moral claim to justice, groups like MQG advance "democracy" as a means of gutting Israel's Jewish character and indoctrinating Israeli children to believe that there is something inherently wrong with Jewish nationalism and national self-determination. The "democracy" programs in the schools indoctrinate children to believe that the only moral way for Israel to organize itself is as a post-Jewish "state for all its citizens."
And the State Department is funding its efforts.
The State Department's funding is small. In 2020-2022, it provided a total of around $40,000 to MQG. But the point of the funding is not the amount involved, but the message it sends.
Just as the State Department provides financial support for MQG's subversion of Israel's Jewish character, the Biden administration supports MQG's campaign to prevent the Netanyahu government and the Knesset from passing the judicial and legal reform packages they ran on in November's election.
During their visits to Israel last month, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed judicial reform with Netanyahu. Blinken took the unprecedented step of lecturing Netanyahu in front of television cameras about how democracy works, as if he were a tin pot despot rather than the leader of the Middle East's only democracy, the U.S.'s most powerful ally in the region.
Hectoring Netanyahu, Blinken said, "Building consensus for new proposals is the most effective way to ensure they're embraced and that they endure."
Blinken's hypocrisy left many observers dumbfounded. Since its first day in office the Biden administration has demonized its political opponents as "semi-fascists" and threats to democracy. Biden governs without regard for his political opponents, and at least in the case of his open borders policy, in contravention of federal law.
After Blinken went home, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris issued similar statements.
For his part, Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides delivered a passive-aggressive threat to the Netanyahu government over the judicial reform package. In an interview, Nides explained that "Israeli democracy" is a key component of the U.S.'s defense of Israel at the U.N. The underlying message was clear: Do anything that our client MQG considers "anti-democratic" and our ability to defend Israel will diminish.
The anti-democratic, hyperpolitical character of MQG came out strongly during the Lapid-Bennett government's year and a half in office. Whereas MQG head Eliad Shraga and his comrades ran to the court against every initiative of the previous Netanyahu government, during the Lapid-Bennett government's time in power, they went on an extended vacation.
When last fall, in contravention of explicit requirements of the law, then-interim Prime Minister Yair Lapid signed and forced through the implementation of the Biden administration-mediated maritime gas deal with Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon without Knesset approval two weeks before the election, MQG sat on its hands. The Biden administration, which is now so concerned about Israeli democracy, didn't care that a majority of Knesset members opposed the deal that Biden and Blinken compelled Lapid to sign.
In 2017, MQG led another anti-Netanyahu campaign. Many of its supporters quit in disgust after Shraga gave a speech at another well-funded rally where he called Netanyahu and his supporters "traitors" and used racist language to attack Sephardic Likud lawmakers.
As one disgruntled, just resigned member explained at the time:
"When I heard the speech, I couldn't believe Shraga was saying those things. He demonstrated with his vile statements that he is an anarchist and a racist. I listened to him again in the radio interviews he gave... [a few days later]. When I saw that he wasn't retracting his statements but stating his claims even more forcefully, I understood that something is broken. The issue of corruption is important to me, but the movement has transformed itself into a radical leftist movement that is calling for a putsch. My place is not with them and I tore up my membership card."
Notably, the State Department funding began two years later, when there was no longer any doubt about MQG's subversive role in Israeli society.
In his statement on Israeli democracy, Biden said:
"The genius of American democracy and Israeli democracy is that they are both built on strong institutions, on checks and balances, on an independent judiciary. Building consensus for fundamental changes is really important to ensure that the people buy into them so they can be sustained."
Perhaps Biden is driven by jealousy. Two-thirds of Israelis support judicial and legal reform. Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of immigration and inflation. A large majority of Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy, foreign policy and crime issues. Biden could only dream of having as broad a consensus of support for his policies as Netanyahu has for his.
*Caroline Glick is an award-winning columnist and author of The Israeli Solution: A One-State Plan for Peace in the Middle East.
*Reprinted by kind permission of JNS.
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Biden Must Send F-16s to Ukraine – Now
Con Coughlin/ Gatestone Institute/March 07/2023
There is... a hollow ring to Biden's rousing rhetoric when it is matched against the practical support his administration is actually prepared to give the Ukrainians, especially their pleas to be supplied with American fighter jets.
With the Ukrainian forces under intense pressure from their adversaries, Kyiv is understandably desperate to secure fresh supplies of weaponry from its Western allies. Moreover, under the terms of the UN Charter, Ukraine is perfectly entitled to acquire weaponry from friendly states to defend its sovereign integrity against outside aggression. There is nothing wrong, per se, with providing Ukraine with Western warplanes, so long as they are flown by Ukrainian pilots.
Biden's reluctance to provide Ukraine with the military equipment it needs to prevail on the battlefield is consistent with the foot-dragging approach he has adopted since the start of the conflict.
Now the Biden administration finds itself accused of reneging on its pledge to support the Ukrainian war effort by refusing to supply F-16 fighter aircraft, even though there are many compelling military reasons for doing so.
The Biden Administration's concerns about Russia's nuclear arsenal are nothing more than a red herring , one the White House is using to conceal its reluctance to give the Ukrainians the backing they need to prevail on the battlefield. This reluctance, moreover, no doubt explains Beijing's deciding to provide military support to Moscow, a move that could certainly turn the tide of the conflict in Moscow's favour. China's rulers appear to have reached the conclusion that, as Biden's support for Ukraine lacks conviction, no one is going to stand in the way of Beijing providing military support to Moscow.
Biden's half-hearted approach to the Ukraine conflict sends entirely the wrong signal to other autocratic regimes such as China. If Ukraine loses this war, it will be a strategic disaster for the West of far greater proportions than the Afghanistan fiasco.
[S]uch a move would send a strong signal to the Kremlin and other autocratic states such as China that the West is totally committed to fighting for the cause of freedom.
US President Joe Biden's reluctance to provide Ukraine with the military equipment it needs to prevail on the battlefield is consistent with the foot-dragging approach he has adopted since the start of the conflict. He opposed Ukraine's pleas to be supplied with Western battle tanks, only to make an embarrassing u-turn after Poland and other European nations pledged to provide tanks. Pictured: A Ukrainian Army officer speaks to the media following a meeting with instructors who train Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard tanks, at the Swietoszow Military Base in Poland on February 13, 2023. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images)
President Joe Biden's reluctance to supply Ukraine with the US warplanes it desperately needs raises serious questions about his claims that he wants Kyiv to emerge victorious in its brutal war for survival against Russia.
During his surprise visit to Kyiv in late February to mark the first anniversary of the Ukraine conflict, Biden worked hard to give the impression that he was firmly backing the Ukrainian cause.
"One year later, Kyiv stands," Biden declared after meeting Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Mariinsky Palace. Jabbing his finger for emphasis on his podium, against a backdrop of three flags from each country, the president continued: "And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you."
Biden made similar declarations of support during his subsequent visit to Poland, a country that, in stark contrast to Biden's hesitant approach, has been unstinting in its support for the Ukrainian cause since Putin launched his unprovoked invasion on February 24 last year. Speaking against the imposing backdrop of Warsaw's Royal Castle, Biden insisted that the US and its allies "will not waver" in supporting the Ukrainians.
There is, though, a hollow ring to Biden's rousing rhetoric when it is matched against the practical support his administration is actually prepared to give the Ukrainians, especially their pleas to be supplied with American fighter jets.
With the Russians widely reported to be planning a new spring offensive, the Ukrainians are desperate for weaponry that will both enable them to hold off the Russians and launch their own counter-offensive to liberate Ukrainian territory from Russian occupation.
Despite the many pledges of support he made during his tour of eastern Europe, Biden is proving remarkably reluctant to respond positively to the Ukrainians' request. Commenting on Ukraine's request for US F-16 fighters, Biden said he had ruled out "for now" sending the advanced jets.
Biden's reluctance to provide Ukraine with the military equipment it needs to prevail on the battlefield is consistent with the foot-dragging approach he has adopted since the start of the conflict. When hostilities first commenced, he resisted providing Ukraine with the long-range missiles it needed to disrupt the Russian advance, only to be reluctantly persuaded to approve the delivery of the long-range HIMARS that have resulted in a tangible improvement in the Ukrainian war effort.
More recently he opposed Ukraine's pleas to be supplied with Western battle tanks, only to be forced into making an embarrassing u-turn after Poland and other European nations pledged to provide tanks of their own.
It is largely as a result of the unstinting commitment Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has shown for the Ukrainian cause that the first consignment of German-manufactured Leopard tanks, donated by Poland, crossed the Ukrainian border at the weekend.
By contrast, thanks to Biden's dithering, it could be months before any US Abrams tanks arrive in Ukraine, by which time it could be too late for them to make any material difference to the course of the conflict.
Now the Biden administration finds itself accused of reneging on its pledge to support the Ukrainian war effort by refusing to supply F-16 fighter aircraft, even though there are many compelling military reasons for doing so.
One of Biden's gravest miscalculations during this conflict has been his concern that, by providing weapons to Ukraine, the US could provoke a wider escalation in the conflict, one that could lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and Nato.
This is a specious argument on many levels. Firstly, Putin's constant references to his nuclear weapons arsenal is nothing more than bluster, designed to distract attention away from the humiliating losses Russian forces have suffered on the battlefield.
The Biden Administration's concerns about Russia's nuclear arsenal are nothing more than a red herring , one the White House is using to conceal its reluctance to give the Ukrainians the backing they need to prevail on the battlefield. This reluctance, moreover, no doubt explains Beijing's deciding to provide military support to Moscow, a move that could certainly turn the tide of the conflict in Moscow's favour. China's rulers appear to have reached the conclusion that, as Biden's support for Ukraine lacks conviction, no one is going to stand in the way of Beijing providing military support to Moscow.
The Russian military could certainly do with a lift. The latest Russian assault on the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, for example, has demonstrated that the Russian forces are taking casualties on a scale not seen since the First World War, as commanders resort to using human wave attacks in their attempts to capture ground from the defending Ukrainians. The result is that piles of Russian corpses are left rotting on the battlefield, many of them former convicts who have been recruited from Russia's prisons to fight with the notorious Wagner Group of mercenaries, which is reported to be leading the offensive to capture Bakhmut. Even so, the sheer weight of numbers the Russian forces have deployed to capture the city has put the Ukrainians under severe pressure, with Zelensky coming under intense pressure to stage a tactical withdrawal from the city to conserve his forces.
With the Ukrainian forces under intense pressure from their adversaries, Kyiv is understandably desperate to secure fresh supplies of weaponry from its Western allies. Moreover, under the terms of the UN Charter, Ukraine is perfectly entitled to acquire weaponry from friendly states to defend its sovereign integrity against outside aggression. There is nothing wrong, per se, with providing Ukraine with Western warplanes, so long as they are flown by Ukrainian pilots.
Another factor the Biden White House needs to take in consideration is that, now that Communist China is willing to supply weapons to Moscow, any misgivings Washington still has about escalating the conflict are no longer valid.
Biden's half-hearted approach to the Ukraine conflict sends entirely the wrong signal to other autocratic regimes such as China. If Ukraine loses this war, it will be a strategic disaster for the West of far greater proportions than the Afghanistan fiasco.
Nor do Biden's arguments that there is no military justification to supply fighter jets to Ukraine hold water. When asked about his reluctance to supply the warplanes in an interview with ABC News, Biden replied that "there is no basis upon which there is a rationale, according to our military now, to provide F-16s."This position is completely at odds with the more robust approach being taken by a number of European allies which have already put measures in place to begin training Ukrainian pilots to fly Western fighters. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has approved advanced fighter jet training for Ukrainian pilots, while both Poland and the Netherlands, whose air arsenals include F-16s, have signalled they, too, are prepared to do the same. French President Emmanuel Macron has also said he is considering providing Kyiv with fighter jets.
If Biden is, as he claims, really serious about supporting Ukraine, then the US needs to take similar action, and begin the process of training Ukrainian pilots to fly advanced fighter jets such as the F-16 in preparation for eventually supplying Kyiv with Western warplanes.
Apart from giving the Ukrainian military a significant upgrade in its war-fighting capabilities, such a move would send a strong signal to the Kremlin and other autocratic states such as China that the West is totally committed to fighting for the cause of freedom.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Putin did the world a favor by suspending Russia’s participation in New START
John R. Bolton/The Washington Post/March 07/2023
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/06/russia-china-united-states-tripolar-nuclear-powers/
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to suspend Russia’s participation in the New START pact on nuclear weapons could be a blessing. If it prompts the United States to acknowledge that the bipolar world of U.S.-Russia nuclear arms agreements is a thing of the past, and that China must now be reckoned with as a third major nuclear power, then Putin will have done the United States a favor.
His intent, of course, was to try to intimidate the United States and its allies aiding Ukraine against Russia’s aggressions. Putin was playing another of his nuclear cards, just as he had with implicit threats to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or to escalate the ongoing conventional war. Those threats appeared to unnerve NATO leaders, who hesitated to ship weapons requested by Kyiv.
Putin was, sadly, not entirely mistaken about the effect of his announcement: Some in the West bemoaned the impending death of the last major strategic-weapons agreement. But given the growing strength of the Russia-China entente and China’s expanding nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs, Cold War-style, U.S.-Russia arms agreements are not merely inadvisable but dangerous.
While still unclear what “suspending” rather than withdrawing fully from New START means, Putin’s gambit has exposed the real stakes, extending far beyond Ukraine or New START, which was a bad deal when written and unimproved by age
By addressing only strategic and not tactical nuclear weapons, the treaty effectively ratified a huge existing Russian advantage. New technologies — such as hypersonic missiles — have rendered it obsolete. In 2021, President Biden erred in extending New START for five years, locking in Moscow’s advantages. Even the White House now concedes Russia has significantly violated the treaty.
These flaws, however, pale before the emerging tripolar nuclear world’s complexities. China clearly understands this reality, and no doubt that is why it has refused to join any negotiations over a New START successor. Chinese President Xi Jinping likely is aiming to increase his nuclear assets until it is too late for negotiations to restrain their growth. The Post reported in 2021 on a “building spree” revealed by satellite imagery showing China’s construction of more than 100 silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles. The commander of U.S. nuclear forces told Congress in 2021 that a “breathtaking expansion” of China’s nuclear weapons program was underway.
The United States and Russia possess much larger nuclear stockpiles than China’s, but the important point is Beijing’s drive toward deployed weapons. The New START agreement, in theory, limited the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads; last year, the Pentagon projected that China would have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035, imminently in nuclear terms. No wonder silo construction is in overdrive.
The previous basically bipolar nuclear world was far simpler, strategically and operationally. The foundational U.S. nuclear doctrines and deterrence strategies assumed one main nuclear adversary. Unfortunately, what we “knew” during the Cold War is wholly insufficient today. Now facing two major nuclear adversaries, the United States must urgently recalibrate its warhead and delivery-system requirements in multiple, new, uncharted scenarios.
Consider two such possibilities. We could, for example, face a nuclear confrontation with Russia, after which, assuming we emerged “victorious,” we immediately faced a second nuclear confrontation with China. Another potential crisis could have us confronting a China-Russia axis, menacing us and our European and Asian allies simultaneously.
Before engaging in further strategic-arms diplomacy, Washington must decide fundamental issues of how large U.S. nuclear assets must be to face two adversaries. It would be suicidal to argue that the United States could make do with all three countries at equal warhead levels, a result typical of arms-control agreements. But how many more deliverable nuclear warheads would the United States need for self-defense and to establish deterrence? How many more weapons would be optimal, or even minimally sufficient? Equal to the combined Moscow-Beijing total, or more?
And don’t forget that North Korea, Iran and other aspiring nuclear-weapons states almost certainly see Russia and China as friendly nations, and the United States and its nuclear-armed allies Britain and France as enemies.
Enormously consequential strategic questions such as these, with far-reaching ramifications for the U.S. nuclear posture, anti-missile assets and defense budget, are here now. These life-and-death decisions are much more urgent for defending the United States than arms-control deals. Better to have the arms in hand, and then, if we choose, limit them, than not to have enough, allowing Moscow and Beijing to dictate future relations.
We also need our allies to engage, this time globally; it won’t be sufficient for the United States to deal with NATO on one hand or a series of bilateral, hub-and-spoke Indo-Pacific alliances on the other. China’s coming attainment of peer status as a nuclear power, and its entente with nuclear-superpower Russia, is a global threat. For making the urgency clear, thank you, President Putin.
**John R. Bolton served as national security adviser under President Donald Trump and is the author of “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir.”

Great Aspirations… Bring the World Together in Riyadh
Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Farhan/Saudi Minister of Culture/Asharq Al Awsat/March 07/2023
When following any success story anywhere in the world, I watch for three key indicators: education, culture and science - the bedrock of prosperity and progress in a constantly evolving and fast-changing world. Indeed, nations write their future with this “essential trifecta,” building on their past and adjusting to their present, constructing bridges of knowledge and cultural exchange, and making dialogue and universal peace imperatives.
Exhausted by wars and their devastating impact on our humanity, culture, and knowledge, the world realized the importance of focusing on these three pillars. Our Kingdom’s founder, King Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman - may God have mercy on his soul - played a role in planting the seeds of one of the fruits that grew from this realization. Along with 19 national leaders from around the world, he was in London for the establishment of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in 1946 at a pivotal historical moment.
Culture, education and science have been crucial to national success stories and progress. Taken together, their impact goes beyond the countries themselves, changing the lives of other peoples as well, and making the world a more stable, advanced, and prosperous place.
Experiences have shown that these three broad terms clearly define the path to national eminence, on the condition that they are developed within the framework of a deep strategic vision in which commonalities come together that have the flexibility to adapt to the traditions and culture of each society.
I believe that the three vast fields are closely correlated to sustainability and intellectual development. Together, they improve quality of life and enhance national gains on all levels, including the economic and social levels. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has thus placed a strong emphasis on culture, education and science since the reign of the founding king - may God have mercy on his soul.
Nonetheless, at the present time, the progress in these fields has been galvanized, receiving unprecedented support from our wise leadership. Progress on these fronts is an essential component of the Kingdom’s ambitious vision for the future (Saudi Vision 2030). Under the leadership of the Crown Prince and Prime Minister - may God protect him - vast and specialized programs have been set up to fortify these pillars of development.
And because the Crown Prince has always been keen on including the world and pushing it to build for tomorrow, his directives have ensured that the Kingdom is always endeavoring to facilitate global cooperation and joint action on an array of issues. It is within this framework that the Arab League Educational, Cultural and Scientific Organization (ALECSO) requested the organization of the conference, “Future of Education, Science, and Culture International Organizations Forum,” under the theme “Together for Impact in the 21st Century” and in partnership with Saudi National Commission for Education, Culture and Science. Supporting all regional and international efforts to promote education, culture and science is pivotal for engendering global prosperity. When we work together, we can give rise to a world better than we can imagine by coordinating with one another, exchanging visions, and cooperating on strategic issues.
Alongside all the other stakeholders, we aspire to contribute to the rich discussion at the first event of its kind that will be held in Riyadh. We intend for this dialogue to play a role in crystallizing a vision for fortifying education, culture and science, turning them into solid building blocks for the future and getting ourselves into a better position once the time comes to pass the torch on to a more creative and successful generation.
Through the “Future of Education, Science, and Culture International Organizations Forum,” the Kingdom is underlining the importance of dialogue, strategic planning, continuous debate, and the exchange of ideas and visions on these three major topics. This is essential for keeping pace with developments, integrating our cultures into this process, and arming future generations through which they can meaningfully engage in global culture and open new horizons for mankind.
In conclusion, I call on organizations around the world to take part in this event with us and write the beginning of the story to synergize our efforts and build humanity’s and the world’s future. We extend our arms because we in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have learned to bring everyone together and involve everyone in the process of enhancing development and building a brighter tomorrow. Ours is an approach that aspires to bring good, peace, and love to all.

The Serene Hypocrisy of Nikki Haley
Pamela Paul/The New York Times/Tuesday, 7 March, 2023
Astonishingly, some people still see Nikki Haley as one of the “good” Trump cabinet members, the future of a more tolerant and accepting Republican Party. Like those anti-Trumpers who willfully interpreted each casual flick of Melania’s wrist as a prospect of rebellion, Haley hopefuls want to believe that a conscience might yet emerge from Trump’s Team of Liars, that the G.O.P’s latest showcasing of a Can-Do Immigrant Success Story can somehow undo years of xenophobia.
This requires listening to only half of what Haley says.
But if you listen to the full spectrum of her rhetoric, Haley clearly wants to capture the base that yearns for Trumpism — and to occupy the moral high ground of the post-Trump era. She wants to tout the credential of having served in a presidential cabinet (she was Trump’s UN ambassador) — and bask in recognition for having left of her own accord. She wants to criticize Americans’ obsession with identity politics — and highlight her own identity as a significant qualification.
There are plenty of reasons to approach Haley with wariness: her middle-school-cafeteria style of meting out revenge, her robotic “I have seen evil” presidential campaign announcement video, the P.T.A. briskness with which she dismisses a bothersome fact. But most alarming is her untroubled insistence on having her cake and eating it too. Even in short-term-memory Washington, rife as it is with wafflers and flip-floppers, the serene hypocrisy of Nikki Haley stands out. She wants it both ways — and she wants it her way most of all.
Take a glance at the inconvenient record. Here is Rebranded Republican Nikki Haley, who told Politico she was “triggered” by the 2015 slaughter of nine parishioners inside Charleston’s Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church, that she was disgusted by Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential candidacy, that she was disgusted by Trump’s treatment of Mike Pence. And here also is Red-blooded Republican Haley, who in earlier interviews for the same 2021 Politico magazine profile rolls her eyes at the possibility of Trump’s impeachment, warmly recalls checking in on the disconsolate former president — a man she called her “friend” — and emphasizes “the good that he built.”
Haley is accustomed to internal contradiction, having been plucked from the South Carolina governorship to serve as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, a position Trump reportedly chose her for because it removed her from the governorship. Soon after Madam Ambassador arrived in New York in 2017, she appeared at the Council on Foreign Relations, an event I attended and remember well. Even members of the council, a nonpartisan group accustomed to hosting dignitaries both friendly and hostile, thrummed in anticipation of its first visiting cabinet member from the Trump administration.
Despite a reputation for intuitive political acumen, Haley seemed wholly incapable of reading the room. “This is an intimidating crowd, I’ve got to tell you. It really is,” she said, otherwise placid in her unpreparedness for a role grappling with urgent complexities in Russia, Iran, China and North Korea. She proceeded to share folksy anecdotes about how family members were adjusting to life in the big city. Later, she wove past questions from the council’s president, Richard Haass, at one point breaking into giggles. “It’s like you want me to answer it a certain way,” she admonished him. “That was too funny in the way you worded that.”
There as elsewhere, Haley emphasized where she came from: “In South Carolina, I was the first minority governor and — a real shock to the state — the first girl governor as well.” As discordant as this blushing Southern girlishness was from a senior administration official, it fit in with Haley’s “You go, girl!” notion of female empowerment. Haley may be the last American woman to champion “leaning in” à la Sheryl Sandberg — and on Sean Hannity’s TV show, of all places — without even a smidge of irony.
In a similar vein, the kicker to her campaign announcement speech was not only stunningly literal — “And when you kick back, it hurts them more if you’re wearing heels” — it also came from the regressive stilettoed playbook of Melania-Ivanka-Kellyanne. As Haley declared in her 2022 book, “If You Want Something Done: Leadership Lessons From Bold Women,” when people try to tell her what she can and can’t do, her strategy is to push back harder: “Your life — the life you want — is worth fighting for.”
Throughout her career, Haley has enjoyed the image of herself as an underdog and outsider willing to stand up to her party. But exposing and exploiting racism in the Republican Party isn’t the same as confronting it head on. Nor has she risked doing so except in rare moments. While governor of South Carolina in 2015, Haley called for the Confederate flag to be removed from the state capitol — but only after the murderous rampage of an avowed white nationalist. A 2010 video recently shown by CNN reveals this less as a moment of principled bravery than of political expediency. In that video, she defended the display of the Confederate flag and the observance of Confederate History Month. Asked how she would respond to those who objected, she replied, “I will work to talk to them about the heritage and how this is not something that’s racist.” She repeated this defense again in 2019 in an interview with Glenn Beck in which she described the flag as a symbol of “service, sacrifice and heritage.”
With equally dexterous flair, Haley emphasizes her relative youth at 51 (“a new generation of leadership”), her identity as a woman and her Indian heritage as the child of immigrants while repeatedly condemning identity politics. “I don’t believe in that,” she said while campaigning recently in South Carolina, before neatly wrapping up with “As I set out on this new journey, I will simply say this — may the best woman win.”
According to a recent poll, Haley is one point ahead of Pence, currently exciting about 5 percent of Republican voters. In all likelihood, she will wind up Sarah Palin-ed into the vice-presidential candidate pool. But with her long-shot win of the South Carolina governorship, Haley has previously proved the unbelievers wrong. She may be hoping that a record of equivocation will be perceived as one of mediation, and her brand of hypocrisy mistaken for one of moderation. It’s on voters to decide, when choosing between her and those Republican candidates who are ideological to their core, whether they prefer a candidate with no core at all.

Regional Crisis and Regional Cooperation: Israeli Response to the Earthquake in Syria and Turkey
Nir Boms, Joelle Rosenthal/The Washington Institute/March, 07/2023
Israeli aid efforts to Turkey and Syria have been multifaceted after the earthquake, despite the difficult political circumstances.
On February 6th, the devastating earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria prompted an outpouring of international aid to the affected areas. Although the crisis coincided with a complex political situation in Israel—including ongoing domestic protests, escalating tensions with the Palestinians, and a newly formed government working to establish its position—Israeli aid organizations became one of the first foreign aid responders on the ground. As is sometimes the case in the Middle East, crises become a moment for countries to demonstrate a different side and even perhaps a show of unity.
While Israel has long been active in emergency disaster relief missions in various countries around the world, four aspects of these current efforts are especially noteworthy. First, they involve both official teams from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and a range of relevant Israeli NGOs working in parallel. Second, some of those NGOs are actively partnering with NGOs from other regional countries, both Turkish and Arab. Third, several of these NGOs have committed to ongoing aid efforts past the immediate rescue and relief period to facilitate long-term reconstruction. And fourth, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s public announcement that part of Israel's humanitarian aid would be delivered inside Syria marked a new development in its relationship with its northern neighbor—although the Assad regime refused such aid, and it is consequently being provided without publicity.
Humanitarian Response in Turkey
Drawing on past experiences in countries such as Turkey, Haiti, the United States, Cyprus, and most recently Ukraine, official IDF search and rescue teams were swiftly deployed to the city of Kahramanmaraş, Turkey to begin operations shortly after the earthquake. Working across thirty sites of destruction, the Israeli delegation was able to save nineteen people from the rubble, including a two-year-old baby, thanks in part to the use of a cutting-edge radar camera that can detect the presence of individuals beyond walls. This mission, known as “Operation Olive Branch,” marks the Israeli army’s 30th rescue and recovery operation since 1982. In the week following the earthquake, the IDF likewise deployed fifteen Air Force cargo planes carrying hundreds of tons of equipment and an additional 200 personnel to establish a field hospital in Turkey.
However, the more noteworthy aspect of the Israeli response has been the efforts of Israeli civil society, who quickly organized themselves and, for the first time, collaborated with new partners in the region. The mobilization of these groups suggests a potential framework for future collaboration, especially as rebuilding efforts will extend into the months ahead.
Israeli humanitarian organizations swiftly responded to the crisis, both remotely and on the ground. Thirteen NGOs have been operating in various locations across Turkey including Gaziantep, Anatakya, Kilis, Adiyaman, and Kahramanmaraş. With the help of Turkish Airlines, which provided free shipment of aid and equipment donations from Israel, the Israeli teams have joined forces with their Turkish counterparts in life-saving missions.
These efforts have included United Hatzalah, which sent a plane carrying twenty-five emergency response personnel and over ten tons of humanitarian and medical equipment to Turkey. IsraAID also dispatched a team of trauma specialists to Gaziantep on the United Hatzalah flight to deliver water purification systems. NATAN Worldwide Disaster Relief’s medical and relief team has been dispatched to Adiyaman. Zaka, an Israeli organization that specializes in tracing body parts, worked hand-in-hand with the IDF mission and played a key role in saving nineteen people from the rubble. Additionally, Magen David Adom, the Israeli Red Cross, is preparing to establish a dedicated field hospital to provide crucial humanitarian and medical assistance. Led by Nimrod Arad of the Israeli-Turkish business council, Latet and SID Israel have contributed over 200 tons of equipment, which was transported by Turkish Airlines and distributed by the Turkish National Emergency Relief Organization (AFAD).
The Joint Distribution Committee disaster response team and World Jewish Relief are providing immediate aid by supplying heated tents, thermal clothes, hot soup, and ready-to-eat meals, as well as medical support, to those in need in Turkey and Syria. In collaboration with Latet, SmartAID initially sent a team of twenty-five search and rescue experts to Gaziantep equipped with specialized equipment to rescue people trapped beneath collapsed buildings. They have now entered the second phase, in which they plan to send another relief team with fifty pallets of hygiene items, blankets, warm clothing, and other necessities. There have also been citizen-led initiatives, such as the one by Keidar Grossman, who collected and sent over 750 boxes of supplies to support those in Turkey and Syria.
Humanitarian Response in Syria
In contrast to Turkey, Syria is still classified as an enemy state to Israel. In recent years, Israel's main official engagement with Syria has been via the bombardment of Iranian targets. Despite this, Prime Minister Netanyahu quickly announced that Israel would provide humanitarian assistance to Syria in the aftermath of the earthquake in response to a request made through an official channel, later attributed to Russia. Although Russia declined to comment—and although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad rejected the offer—Israeli response teams continued to mobilize in Syria.
Israeli humanitarian organizations have gained significant experience working in Syria in recent years through Israel’s "Good Neighbors" program, which has found innovative ways to offer aid in the Syrian arena. This approach is particularly noteworthy given the absence of diplomatic relations and the need to operate covertly, often through like-minded NGOs that do not operate under an Israeli banner. While being mindful of the difficult realities in Syria and maintaining close contact with Syrians on the ground, Israeli teams were able to provide aid to those in need.
A new model of collaborative work
The devastating earthquakes in Syria and Turkey serve as a reminder that our region cannot always be separated by borders, ethnicity, race, or other demarcations. The enormity of this disaster has allowed a group of partners from across the region to come together to support the people of Syria and Turkey. This combined effort has utilized existing networks to create a new organization, Partnership for MENA Aid. Led by a joint team of Israelis, Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians, and others from the Gulf, this group has been working together to provide support on the ground in both countries.
Right now, Partnership for MENA Aid is focused on supporting the joint initiative of the Israeli organization Hatzalah and the Jordanian organization Jordan Health Aid Society, with a team of Israelis, Palestinian, Syrians, Turks, and Emiratis working together to raise funds and bring equipment to both Syria and Turkey. Beyond fundraising, the campaign is focused on the collection of critical second hand equipment. Sarah Aweidah, the coordinator of this effort, said, “this is the exact time when we need to work together, and I am proud to help lead a team of partners and friends from around the region who stand up for each other.”
Despite some remarkable stories of people being rescued ten days after the earthquake, search and rescue efforts have largely ended. However, the recovery and rebuilding process in both countries has only just begun. To date, hundreds of thousands of people have been left homeless, including many refugees whose lives have already been torn apart and now face yet another disaster.
While both Turkey and Syria have received significant aid in the direct aftermath of the earthquake, it is likely that the attention of the world will soon turn elsewhere. However, some Israeli organizations have committed to long-term missions and understand that help is still needed—they remain in the field and continue their donation efforts. Now, with new relationships founded on these aid efforts, they hope to not only provide aid but also demonstrate a rare moment of unity that can be replicated not just in times of crisis but also in times of peace.
*Dr. Nir Boms is a co-founder of CyberDissidents.org and a research fellow at the Dayan Center for Middle East Studies.
Joelle Rosenthal
*Joelle Rosenthal is a student at Tel Aviv University and works at the Dayan Center for Middle East Studies. She is an active member of the Partnership for MENA Aid.

UN Aid in Northwest Syria—Or Lack Thereof
Rena Netjes//The Washington Institute/March, 07/2023
In the direct aftermath of the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria, EU-funded UN aid was delivered to Damascus despite the Assad regime’s disastrous track record, which includes stealing aid from international institutions. On the ground in Northwest Syria, frustration with the UN is rising, especially as aid from neighboring countries entered quickly.
On the day of the earthquake, the EU Delegation head to Syria, Dan Stoenescu, tweeted that: “Following the devastating earthquake that affected Syria, ECHO_Middle (EU Humanitarian Aid Middle East & North Africa) and our humanitarian partners are already activating the emergency crisis response providing water and sanitation support, non-food items and undertaking search and rescue operations in affected areas across Syria.” He added that “We need to make sure help can continue to arrive to the people in need through all modalities, cross-line and cross-border, in a timely manner! Now is the time to support all Syrians affected by the disaster, in all areas of Syria! EU is ready to help.” ECHO subsequently posted an Arabic-captioned video of planes arriving at Damascus airport to be “distributed across the country as soon as possible…humanitarian assistance is neutral and impartial.”
Weeks after the disaster, however, Syrian communities in the worst hit areas outside of regime control reported that they were still waiting for the promised UN and EU assistance to reach them. After traveling to some of the worst hit areas and meeting those affected, the perception on the ground as I observed it is that the UN’s decision to hold to the parameters of UN resolution 2672 has meant that political considerations have trumped humanitarian ones when it has come to UN and EU aid.
Especially notable is the case of Jindires, a town in southern Afrin near Idlib and one of the sites of the heaviest damage. Mahmoud Hafar, the head of the Jindires local council, described the town as having a population of 50,000 persons, both original inhabitants and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) who fled the Assad regime. “More than 1,200 people died in Jindires and the countryside, about 1,000 in the city, and 200 in the countryside. The number of inhabitants of the city and the countryside is about 115,000. About 840 got seriously injured, but all the injured are more than 4,000,” Hafar said. This town was one of the most heavily impacted in Northwest Syria, and emergency aid is sorely needed here and in the immediate surrounding areas.
But UN and EU aid was initially bottlenecked due to wrangling over access, as the UN’s approved access points to this section of Northwest Syria has narrowed over time to just one crossing. The Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey is the main—and until just recently—the only UN-approved entry point for aid to the northwest area of the country under control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, and through Idlib to Northern Aleppo province, under control of the Turkish-backed opposition Syrian National Army (SNA).
This is not because there are no other suitable crossings, but rather because Russia used its veto in 2021 at the Security Council to block continued use of the nearby Bab al-Salama crossing and other entry points, helping its ally Bashar Assad monopolize the distribution of aid. The other four crossings to this area, Bab al-Salama to Azaz, Bab al-Hamam to Jindires, and al-Ra’ee and Jarabulus, are under control of the SNA.
On the day of the earthquake, one road in Hatay province leading to Bab al-Hawa was damaged, and repairs stalled in the immediate aftermath while local Turkish authorities scrambled to deal with the massive damage and loss of life in nearby Antakya and Iskenderun. But another one was still serviceable, and corpses of Syrians who died in Turkey were transported from Turkey through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing.
And in contrast, roads to other border crossings such as Bab al-Salama, al-Ra’ee, and al-Hamam—the latter just 5 kilometers (3 miles) from Jinderes—were in a more serviceable condition and remained open 24/7 to receive assistance. The local authorities in these areas reported the lack of UN aid. Though some documents reported UN aid arriving in Azaz, it was not visible on the ground in Jindires when the author visited.
But aid from other quarters had arrived. On the morning of February 8, the border crossing director in Tell Abyad, Fayez al-Qatea, showed us that he had received a memo from the Prime Minister of the opposition Syrian Interim Government (SIG) the prior evening to open all border crossings 24/7 to facilitate aid and enable injured people to cross for medical help. One of the first aid convoys to arrive in Afrin, where the town of Jindires is located, was aid that included drilling machines and excavators, gathered by the people of Tell Abyad. This campaign from nearby was organized by the tribal council—representing the vast majority of Tell Abyad residents with tribal affiliations.
Donors such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) used these open border crossings to quickly and efficiently deliver aid to the worst affected areas. On Saturday February 18, we took a tour through Jindires to see what kind of aid had arrived. Two trucks of Turkish aid provided by the Turkish aid organization AFAD were clearly visible, alongside the Syrian NGO Shafak, Saudi tents, and boxes delivered by the convoy from the Eastern provinces of Deir al-Zour, Raqqa, and Hasaka. Also visible were blankets delivered by the Barzani Charity Foundation, and field clinics from the Molham Team, the SIG, and Shafak. We saw a car of the Bahar Organization, a convoy from a Palestinian organization, and White Helmets—although the latter operated in much larger numbers in nearby Idlib.
The Barzani Charity Foundation team leader for Syria, Rawaj Haji, told us on Friday, February 17 that they had left from Erbil twenty-four hours after the earthquake, first delivering aid in southeastern parts of Turkey and then entering Syria through the Bab al-Salama border crossing on February 10. By the time of the interview, their fifth convoy had entered and they were then in the area with 37 trucks and 5 ambulances, having handed out 600 tents by February 16 throughout Jindires and twenty-eight small villages in the surrounding countryside.
Aid from multiple Gulf countries was also visible: local military SNA leaders told us that a Qatari organization delivered at least 5,000 blankets on the first evening of the earthquake and subsequently provided many tents and food supplies for the newly set up camps—additions to the extant Madrasa camp just outside Jindires and a new camp in Hekice, a village in the countryside of Afrin. A Kuwaiti delegation visited the area yesterday to provide aid, and both Kuwaiti and Saudi aid was being delivered. One of the few positives to emerge out of the earthquake was to bring Arabs and Kurds together. In the village of lower Kokar, several Kurdish inhabitants told us they now stay the night in tents with Arab IDPs who had fled to their village years ago. “Some IDPs, not all, have tents, because they have fled already several times further North. We don’t have tents and we can stay the night in the tents with them.” Notably absent at this point, however, were any visible signs in Jindires of UN or EU branded supplies or teams, including the tents and teams initially promised.
Complicating matters further are the conflicting claims from inside and outside of Northwest Syria as to what delayed UN aid. While the UN stated in the days after the earthquake that aid from regime-held territories to Idlib was being held up by “approval issues” from HTS, Minister of Health Husein Bazar in Idlib’s Salvation Government—the civilian governmental arm of HTS—stated in an interview with the author that the Bab al-Hawa border crossing from Turkey to Idlib had been opened within twenty-four hours of the earthquake for any aid.
Bazar emphasizes that “The border was open from the second day, totally open.” He pointed to the poignant images of Syrians who had died under the rubble in Turkey brought back into Northwest Syria via the Bab al-Hawa crossing—“but unfortunately not aid.” The Syrian media organization Eekad likewise published a video challenging the UN’s claims, which now has approximately three million views.
Bazar also emphasized that a hospital and helicopter landing pad exist at Bab al-Hawa, so alternate aid delivery mechanisms were possible. Bazar stated that he had not received any of the 500 tents promised by the EU, despite the need for an additional estimated 3,000-5,000 tents over the thousands already received from other organizations.
In nearby Idlib, scenes were also grim, especially in the three most affected towns of Harem, Bsaniya, and Salqin. Some districts in these towns have totally collapsed, leaving a scene of utter devastation along entire rows of what used to be people’s homes. Bazar contrasted the image in Idlib with that of the regime-held areas: “The number of casualties in regime areas is about ten percent of the total number of casualties if you take Northwest Syria into account. Despite that, from the first moment, the first hours and first days, planes arrived carrying aid, and even visits of UN officials, and Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the World Health Organization. They gave statements, but here we didn’t see anything.” Minister of Development Mohamed al-Bashir reiterated this message in an interview on February 16: “From the first day we sent an official message to the UN, to the OCHA office in Gaziantep. We didn’t get any response, only until two days ago a meeting took place, a full week after the earthquake. They blamed it on logistic matters since their office is in Gaziantep. But the UN are responsible in emergency situations, people are dying under the rubble.”
Aside from Salvation Government officials, the vice head of the White Helmets, Munir Mustafa, confirmed the limited aspect of UN aid in Idlib and noted that "Among the aid the UN sent us was cleaning stuff to clean houses, but people have no houses.” Meanwhile, aid is arriving to Idlib in major numbers from the eastern provinces, especially from Arab tribes and clans from Deir al-Zour, Raqqa, and Hasaka provinces under Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control through the Oun al-Dadat crossing near Manbij, and from SDF areas to SNA areas, with the convoy coordinator in Salqin reporting that 105 trucks have arrived. Originally from al-Shadadi in the Hasaka province and now an IDP in Idlib, he emphasized that while there are many IDPs living here, the aid is being provided to everyone.
In the aftermath of the earthquake, the Assad regime announced the decision to open the border crossings of Bab al-Salama and al-Ra’ee, a move that UN Secretary-General António Gutteres welcomed in a subsequent statement. Immediately afterward, the UN reported that the first convoy arrived through the Bab al-Salama crossing. The reality, however, is that these crossings had already been open to aid for those willing to ignore the statements of Damascus. The UN unwillingness to use them before obtaining approval from Damascus raises questions about its prioritization of humanitarian need over political expediency. And even as regional powers seem to be using the earthquake as an opportunity to normalize relations with the Assad regime, the regime has busied itself post-earthquake with attacking Northwest Syria at least five times—including reports of pro-Assad forces shelling the highway in Idlib from the Bab al-Hawa crossing. At this point, the people in Northwest Syria I spoke to do not trust or want aid that is facilitated through the Assad regime. As one SNA soldier put it: “Assad [has] caused 1000 earthquakes, I will burn any aid that comes from him.”
**Rena Netjes is an Arabist and independent researcher. She focuses mainly on northern Syria, SDF-held northeast Syria and opposition-held northwest Syria. She has been to the different parts of northern Syria three times in recent years for field research.