English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 01/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
An evil and adulterous generation asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of the prophet Jonah
Matthew 12/38-42: “Some of the scribes and Pharisees said to Jesus, ‘Teacher, we wish to see a sign from you. ’But he answered them, ‘An evil and adulterous generation asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of the prophet Jonah. For just as Jonah was for three days and three nights in the belly of the sea monster, so for three days and three nights the Son of Man will be in the heart of the earth. The people of Nineveh will rise up at the judgement with this generation and condemn it, because they repented at the proclamation of Jonah, and see, something greater than Jonah is here! The queen of the South will rise up at the judgement with this generation and condemn it, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 28 - March 01/2023
New Lebanese General Security director provides opportunity for reform and healing/Amer Fakhouri Foundation/February 28/2023
Baissari awaits approval to become Lebanon’s acting security chief
Mikati fails to find legal exit for Ibrahim's term as Shiite Duo looks for successor
Berri says 'still a chance' to elect president as LBP slips to 87,000
Joint committees meeting suspended as FPM MPs leave session
Tyre Municipality police, workers take hostages at SGBL bank
Judge probing Lebanese banks told to pause investigation
Judge receives Riad Salameh corruption file with hearings to start 'soon'
Oueidat asks Aoun to halt her banks probe pending recusal ruling
Rahi broaches developments with Hajj Hassan, Al-Qusseifi, Italian Ambassador
Mikati broaches situation with US Ambassador, briefed by Health Minister on outcome of his talks with French officials, meets Audit Bureau...
Beirut airport customs foil attempt to smuggle 1.5 kg of cocaine hidden in guitar
Members of Tyre municipal police storm SGBL bank demanding their salaries
Fuel prices edge up in Lebanon
Lebanese state media archives looted in heart of Beirut
Lebanon back to Basketball World Cup as Serbia grabs last spot
Lebanon: Mikati Rejects Accusations of Interfering in Judiciary
Arrest of Hezbollah financier ‘most senior catch’ since 2017 – analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/February 28/2023
A new initiative to fill presidential vacuum in Lebanon/Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/ February 28, 2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 28 - March 01/2023
Iranian Regime Tightens House Arrest for Mir-Hossein Mousavi
Canada Targets IRGC, Law Enforcement Officials in Fresh Iran Sanctions
Iran can make fissile material for a bomb 'in about 12 days' - U.S. official
Iran’s FM Accuses the West of ‘Inciting Unrest’
Blinken Holds Talks with Central Asian Nations in Wake of Ukraine Anniversary
Putin issues alert after drone strikes 60 miles from Moscow; Russian death toll surpasses all wars since WWII: Ukraine live updates
German minister concerned about Israel's judicial overhaul
Putin is losing the race against time in Ukraine
Putin orders Ukraine border tightening as drones hit Russia
Mystery Shrouds Fate of UN Plan for Unloading FSO Safer
Quake killed more than 50,000 in Turkiye, Syria: Revised toll
Around 40,000 Syrians Return from Türkiye after Quake
Alleged higher Iran enrichment worries Germany, Israel
West Bank violence in Palestinian town described as 'a pogrom' by Israeli military commander
Israeli PM's ultranationalist ally quits as deputy minister
Palestinian gunman kills Israeli as violence roils West Bank
New quake hits Turkey, toppling more buildings: 1 killed
Abu Dhabi : 4.5 million Captagon pills seized from canned food tins

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 28 - March 01/2023
The Palestinians' New Terror Groups/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 28, 2023
Why Americans like to see tycoons running for president/Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/February 28, 2023
EU must reinvent itself for a third time/Jean Pisani-Ferry/Arab News/February 28, 2023
Aqaba meeting was much ado about nothing/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/February 28, 2023
Yemen Peace Accord Appears Increasingly Possible/Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/Feb 28, 2023
Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy/Michael Singh/The Washington Institute/Feb 28, 2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 28 - March 01/2023
New Lebanese General Security director provides opportunity for reform and healing
Amer Fakhouri Foundation/February 28/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116196/amer-fakhouri-foundation-new-lebanese-general-security-director-provides-opportunity-for-reform-and-healing%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b3%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b1-%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%ae%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a/
Will the closing of this chapter in history deliver Lebanon a start toward a better future?
General Abbas Ibrahim, the head of the Lebanese General Security (LGS), has reached mandatory retirement age in Lebanon (age 64) and his term is set to end this week. The Cabinet and Parliament of Lebanon had the option to discuss a measure that would have allowed him to stay in his position even after reaching the legal retirement age.
While historically Lebanese authorities have often issued exceptional exemptions for top officials to stay in their position past retirement age, this is not looking to be the case for General Abbas Ibrahim as neither opted to take up that discussion and there are currently no sessions planned to address Ibrahim’s impending departure from the LGS.
Ibrahim is well known for his close ties with Hezbollah as well as authorities in Syria. Ibrahim would often leverage those ties to negotiate on behalf of western parties, including for the return of hostages and illegal detainees. As most are aware, Amer Fakhoury, the late US hostage was subject to illegal detention by the Lebanese General Security. At that time, the LGS was under the leadership of General Ibrahim. There he was tortured and unfortunately returned to the states only to pass away shortly after. Since then, Ibrahim has additionally been charged for his role in the Beirut port explosion which killed over 200 people.
It remains unclear who will replace Ibrahim. What is clear, in this moment, is an opportunity to appoint as head of Lebanese General Security a leader with the capacity and courage to act outside Hezbollah’s Influence. We hope the people of Lebanon join voices from around the globe to push for a leader that acts in Lebanon’s best interest and the interest of its people.
https://www.amerfakhouryfoundation.org/february-28-2023-pr-1?fbclid=IwAR2TgB5-8Ezua0BWKYiIUPPiZk7T2eGN-f5Ox4zYcEGRSyrKcS0EM0OU7c8

Baissari awaits approval to become Lebanon’s acting security chief
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 28, 2023
The medical committee of General Security has approved the extension of Brig. Gen. Elias Baissari’s commission for nine months
Acting Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi must now sign off on the medical decision before Baissari can succeed the current General Security chief, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim
BEIRUT: Lebanon is due to appoint a new acting head of its intelligence agency after the highest-ranking candidate was declared fit to take over from its retiring current chief.
The medical committee of General Security approved on Tuesday the extension of Brig. Gen. Elias Baissari’s commission for nine months, amid questions over his fitness relating to injuries he suffered in a car bomb attack almost 20 years ago.
Acting Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi must now sign off on the medical decision before Baissari can succeed the current General Security chief, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, who leaves on Thursday having reached the retirement age of 64.
However, Baissari would assume the position only until the appointment of a new permanent director general when and if a new president can be elected and a national government formed. Mawlawi is currently in Tunis at a meeting of Arab interior ministers. Baissari previously served in the same role in 2019, when Ibrahim was abroad. Questions over his fitness relate to injuries he suffered in the bombing of the car of former deputy speaker Elias Murr in 2005. Baissari spent a month in a coma but recovered and returned to his post. It has been reported that Mawlawi’s ministry wanted to extend Ibrahim’s term but dropped its attempt due to opposition among political leaders. One observer said that some “were reluctant” given Ibrahim’s long-entrenched position in the directorate. With his retirement, “they won’t have to go down the same road with other officials occupying influential positions,” the source said.
Another observer meanwhile said that Shiite parties in Lebanon’s sectarian political system saw him as a “strong contender” to be the next parliament speaker, a position currently occupied by 85-year-old Nabih Berri. Many high-ranking military and administrative officers including the central bank governor Riad Salameh are due to retire this year, as the state stumbles along without a president while MPs squabble over a preferred candidate.  Ibrahim’s responsibilities covered not only his general security functions but also political, security and diplomatic tasks, leading to his description as a “man for difficult missions.”
He has extensive contacts in the US and Europe as well as in Iran, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. A report by Mitch Portero and Kate Cox, entitled “From Hezbollah to the USA: The diverse networks of Abbas Ibrahim,” said that he “played a key role in maintaining Lebanon’s stability” and was effective at “international diplomacy, which made Western governments reluctant to impose sanctions on him for his links to Hezbollah.”Ibrahim took over the directorate in 2011, quickly expanding his influence and playing roles in forming governments due to his extensive contacts. He also helped oversee the liberation of abductees in Syria and Iran, and was part of indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel to demarcate the maritime borders.
Ibrahim joined the Lebanese army in 1980 and was involved in a number of counter-terrorism operations in his early years. However, he was charged with functional negligence in 2020 by the judge investigating the Beirut port explosion, Tarek Bitar. Ibrahim said last year: “When the law allows me, I will appear before judge Bitar. In case the interior minister grants permission for my prosecution, I will appear before the judge the next day. If anyone wants to settle scores with me, I am ready. Law comes first, always.” On whether he might run for office after retiring, Abbas said: “If the Lebanese see me in the position of parliament speaker, I would be honored. The position is not exclusively reserved for Nabih Berri. Freedom of speech and expression is protected in the constitution and I am committed to it.”

Mikati fails to find legal exit for Ibrahim's term as Shiite Duo looks for successor
Naharnett/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Following weeks of efforts to find a legal solution that would allow for the extension of General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim’s term, the attempts have reached a dead end, in a clear indication on the absence of political consensus on the issue, media reports said. “No one minded that Ibrahim stay in his post, but no one considered it to be their battle. Accordingly, as of March 2, Ibrahim will no longer be General Security’s director general,” al-Akhbar newspaper said. “Mikati informed the concerned parties on the eve of the Cabinet session that there is no legal exit that allows for extension,” the daily added, noting that the search for Ibrahim’s successor kicked off on Monday. “As per the law, the successor should be the acting director general, a post that was occupied by Brig. Gen. Elias Baissari for only one year following his appointment in 2019. The mission can only be tasked to the highest ranking officer in the directorate, Brig. Gen. Ramzi al-Rami,” al-Akhbar said. “Baissari’s future depends on the decision of the medical committee, which will meet today… Should the committee issue a decision confirming that he is unfit for the job, Baissari would be sent to retirement to be replaced by Brig. Gen. al-Rami. But should it postpone its report for months, Baissari would replace Ibrahim pending the issuance of the report,” the daily added. “Despite of this, there are deliberations to pick a Shiite successor to Ibrahim to run the directorate in a temporary manner, pending the appointment of an alternative upon the formation of a government with full powers,” al-Akhbar said.

Berri says 'still a chance' to elect president as LBP slips to 87,000
Naharnett/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will try his best to break the presidential impasse. Al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Tuesday, quoted the speaker as saying that there is still a chance to elect a president, but that a solution is only possible when all parties agree to cooperate in order to reach a consensus. In eleven sessions, Lebanon's divided parliament failed to elect a new president, despite the damage the political deadlock is doing to efforts to bail out its bankrupt economy. Last month, two Change lawmakers started a sit-in inside the country's parliamentary chamber, vowing to remain inside until fellow MPs elect a new president. Lebanon has been without a head of state since Michel Aoun's mandate expired last year, with a caretaker cabinet overseeing the responsibilities of government amid a financial collapse that is stretching into its third year and this week saw the local currency reach a record low against the U.S. dollar. The embattled local currency, which in three years has lost more than 95 percent of its value, dropped to a new low Tuesday against the U.S. dollar as it traded over 87,000 to the dollar, compared with 60,000 at the start of the month.

Joint committees meeting suspended as FPM MPs leave session

Naharnett/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
A joint committees session was suspended Tuesday, after the Free Patriotic Movement MPs left it. "We received a decree from the government that has many constitutional flaws and doesn't carry all the ministers' signatures," FPM chief Jebran Bassil stated after he left the session. The decree that Bassil mentioned is about the fuel that Lebanon imports from Iraq. The decree had the signature of "five or six" ministers, an FPM MP said. It doesn't have the signature of the caretaker Energy minister and all other ministers. "This is forgery," Bassil said, adding that the signature of the minister has been used even though he hasn't signed the decree. He again accused the premiership of bypassing the president's powers by signing a decree, without a president signature. "We refused to discuss this decree in the joint committees, until the flaws are corrected," Bassil said. MPs from al-Kataeb and the Lebanese Forces backed the FPM MPs. After Bassil's statement from parliament, Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel and opposition MP and presidential candidate Michel Mouawad stressed, in a press conference, that the caretaker government cannot issue decrees and that parliament cannot legislate until lawmakers elect a president. Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab who chaired the session said that the debate on whether cabinet can convene has reached parliament and that the only solution to this debate is to elect a president. Bou Saab had tried during the session to remove the controversial decree and proceed with other articles on the session's agenda, but then suspended the session after the FPM MPs left and refused to return. Lebanon has been without a head of state since Michel Aoun's mandate expired last year, with a caretaker cabinet overseeing the responsibilities of government amid a financial collapse that is stretching into its third year and this week saw the local currency reach a record low against the U.S. dollar. The embattled local currency, which in three years has lost more than 95 percent of its value, dropped to a new low Tuesday against the U.S. dollar as it traded over 87,000 to the dollar, compared with 60,000 at the start of the month.

Tyre Municipality police, workers take hostages at SGBL bank
Naharnett/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
A number of Tyre Municipality policemen and workers on Tuesday stormed the city’s SGBL bank branch, decrying that they have not been paid their salaries for a second month in a row. “They took the employees hostage and closed the doors, asking the bank’s manager to release their salaries,” al-Jadeed TV said. “We won’t leave until we get paid our salaries. We have families that need to eat and we cannot continue like this. We will spend our night at the bank until our salaries are released,” one of them said. The policemen and workers also placed tires and gasoline at the entrance of the bank, threatening to set them ablaze along with the bank branch.

Judge probing Lebanese banks told to pause investigation
The National//Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Ghada Aoun is looking into alleged financial mismanagement by Lebanese banks
Lebanon's senior prosecutor has instructed a judge investigating alleged financial mismanagement by banks to temporarily halt her probes, in the latest judicial tug of war in the country. Mount Lebanon prosecutor Ghada Aoun has been investigating the Lebanese banking sector over the 2019 economic collapse that has been blamed on decades of financial mismanagement and corruption. But her investigation has often run into roadblocks and she has been the subject of several complaints. Earlier this month, she charged financiers from Bank Audi and Audi Group with money laundering for failing to lift banking secrecy on the accounts of senior figures at the firm. She has also demanded account information from other Lebanese banks. Last week, Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused Ms Aoun of “overstepping” her authority. In a controversial move, he told the interior minister to order security forces not to carry out Ms Aoun's judicial decisions. In the latest development, top prosecutor Ghassan Oweidat told Ms Aoun to “temporarily suspend” her “investigative procedures until decisions are taken on the issues raised”. Lebanon's judiciary is heavily politicised. Ms Aoun called Mr Mikati's actions “a total breakdown of justice” and “an unprecedented interference in the work of the judiciary”.Earlier this month, banks in Lebanon began an indefinite strike amid what they described as haphazard judicial moves against them. Amid the deadlock, they announced last week that they would suspend the strike for a week, while demanding a long-term resolution of the “deficiency” in the judiciary. Ms Aoun has also charged central bank governor Riad Salameh with money laundering and illicit enrichment.

Judge receives Riad Salameh corruption file with hearings to start 'soon'
Nada Maucourant Atallah/The National/February 28/2023
Beirut First Investigative judge confirmed to The National that he will set hearings of defendants after reviewing it
Beirut First Investigative judge Charbel Abou Samra received Riad Salameh's corruption case in its entirety on Tuesday, he confirmed to The National.“I have received the whole file. I will set hearings of the defendants as soon as possible after reviewing it,” he said. Lebanese judge Raja Hamoush charged the former Central Bank governor, his brother Raja and his assistant Marianne Howayek with embezzlement, forgery, illicit enrichment, money laundering and breach of tax law on Thursday. The move follows an 18-month investigation led by Judge Jean Tannous into the alleged embezzlement of more than $330 million from the central bank — Banque du Liban (BDL) — through a contract awarded to the governor's brother's company. After the charges were filed, the case was moved to Judge Abou Samra. After examining the case and questioning the defendants, he can either dismiss the case or, if he decides there is sufficient evidence, file an indictment, which would then lead to a trial. Once praised as the guardian of the financial sector, which has now collapsed amid an unprecedented financial crisis, Riad Salameh has been investigated in at least six European countries since 2020 over alleged financial wrongdoing and corruption. He denies any wrongdoing. A delegation of European judicial officials visited Lebanon last month to question witnesses and collect evidence. They are set to come back for a second round of questioning in a few days.

Oueidat asks Aoun to halt her banks probe pending recusal ruling
Naharnett/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat on Tuesday asked Mt. Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun to suspend her investigations into the banks file until a ruling is issued in the lawsuit against her. BLOM Bank, Creditbank and Saradar Bank had recently agreed to cooperate with Aoun in her request to lift banking secrecy off several accounts to facilitate her probe into the suspected illegal transfer of funds abroad by bankers, businessmen and politicians. “These funds were withdrawn in fresh dollars from the central bank and were returned in banking dollars (lollars) whose value were equivalent to 1/5 of the black market exchange rate,” al-Akhbar newspaper said. The judge had recently filed a lawsuit against Bank Audi and asked 15 others banks to submit information and lift banking secrecy. Aoun’s decision followed a lawsuit filed by depositors against some banks. “On Nov. 11, 2009 the central bank had agreed to grant banks a large quantity of dollars on the condition that they be exclusively used in Lebanon and with an interest rate that reached 20%. It later turned out that 15 banks withdrew those funds, estimated at $8.3 billion, in the period between Nov. 2019 and March 2020,” al-Akhbar said. “The banks returned the funds to the central bank through their lollar liquidity and sent around $4 billion abroad to cover up for commitments to correspondent banks and transfers for the benefit of influential local figures, members of the boards of these banks and some top depositors,” the newspaper added.

Lebanon’s financial system is over, says economy minister
Nada Homsi/The National//Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Amin Salam claims little can be done to improve the drastic financial situation.
The Lebanese Economy Minister on Tuesday admitted his department can do little to stop the country's steep financial decline, as he discussed the decision to make supermarkets display the rate-to-the-dollar at which goods are priced.
Amin Salam said the measure was introduced to guard against rampant price manipulation, as the national currency continues to plummet in value, sometimes by the minute. Supermarkets will also be permitted to display the price of imported supermarket goods in dollars, with domestic products still priced in the national currency. Mr Salam said shops must make the move due to the rapid swings in the value of the Lebanese pound which meant some were repricing goods several times each day. The move will allow for greater transparency in how goods are priced, Mr Salam said, as some supermarkets “are taking advantage of the currency crisis and setting prices on a whim”.“This way you can go to a supermarket and see the rate products are priced in,” he said. But he said there was not much the ministry could do about the cost of basic necessities, given the rapid devaluation of the pound to the dollar — once pegged at 1,507 to $1 but now trading at about 87,000. “If their rate is too high, you have the option of going to a different supermarket and seeing if they have a lower rate,” he said. The latest measure is not a solution but could at least mitigate some of the effects of the currency fluctuations by regulating prices to prevent profiteering, Mr Salam said. “It’s not ideal, nor is it what the nation should aspire to. But in the worst of circumstances, now at least this [measure] can protect citizens — even if just by 10 per cent,” he said. The minister highlighted the lack of solutions to stem the free-falling Lebanese currency and the corresponding economic crisis, which has declined steeply since the first signs of collapse in 2019. The disintegration has caused national banks to impose informal capital controls that severely limit access to people's money and have rendered the local currency nearly worthless. Import-reliant Lebanon must now pay for goods and services in US dollars, priced in the American currency then converted into Lebanese lira. Meanwhile, public sector employees and a significant chunk of Lebanese are still paid in lira, with some making the equivalent of $50 a month. “Our country imports everything,” Mr Salam said, summing up the crux of Lebanon's dilemma. “There’s no other country in the world that imports more than 90 per cent of its goods. Even our domestic products are made using primary components that are imported … everything is priced on the dollar. “The financial regime is over. It's done,” he said. “Now we leave the currency to its fate.”

Rahi broaches developments with Hajj Hassan, Al-Qusseifi, Italian Ambassador
NNA/February 28, 2023
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, on Tuesday met in Bkerki with Caretaker Minister of Agriculture, Abbas Hajj Hassan, who briefed him on the Ministry of Agriculture’s projects. Patriarch Al-Rahi later welcomed a delegation representing the Press Editors Syndicate headed by Joseph Al-Qusseifi, who said as quoting Patriarch Al-Rahi, “Our problem today is that the very same people behind wars [in Lebanon] still rules us.”
Patriarch Al-Rahi separately had an audience with Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, Nicoletta Bombardiere, with whom he discussed the current situation, in addition to bilateral relations between the two countries.

Mikati broaches situation with US Ambassador, briefed by Health Minister on outcome of his talks with French officials, meets Audit Bureau...
NNA/February 28, 2023
Grand Serail visitors on Tuesday quoted Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, as saying that "the measure taken today by the Public Prosecutor at the Court of Cassation, Judge Ghassan Oueidat, in terms of organizing the mechanism for applying the provisions of the amended bank secrecy law, constitutes an essential step to remedy the judicial defect which necessitated him to address his letter to the Minister of the Interior in an attempt to stop a dangerous path in using the judiciary and the law for political ends. The intention was never to protect anyone nor to secure cover for anyone's violations.”
Grand Serail visitors also indicated: "The Prime Minister hopes that Judge Oueidat's step to be the beginning of the path towards the regularity of judicial work within the applicable legal frameworks and principles in order to preserve the good course of justice.
The Prime Minister renewed, according to his visitors, the call for the implementation of the law, and for the judiciary to say its word in all files, affirming once again "his respect for the principle of separation of powers, their balance and cooperation."
On the other hand, Premier Mikati received at the Grand Serail US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, with whom he discussed the current general situation and the bilateral relations between the two countries.
Mikati also met with Caretaker Minister of Public Health, Firas Abiad, who informed his host of the outcome of the talks he held in Paris with the French officials last week.
The PM later received a delegation from the Audit Bureau, chaired by its president, Judge Mohammad Badran.
The delegation handed Mikati three reports over the 2000 budget's closure of account, donations to the Lebanese state, and another donation to the central inspection.
Mikati also received Lebanon's Ambassador to the Vatican, Farid Khazen.
Among the Grand Serail's itinerant visitors for today had been former MP Emile Rahme.

Beirut airport customs foil attempt to smuggle 1.5 kg of cocaine hidden in guitar
NNA/February 28, 2023
Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport’s customs on Tuesday foiled an attempt to smuggle 1.5 kg of cocaine that was professionally wrapped and hidden inside a hand-held guitar owned by a passenger coming from Ecuador via Istanbul on board Turkish Airlines. The smuggler was immediately arrested and handed over, along with the seized items, to the competent authorities

Members of Tyre municipal police storm SGBL bank demanding their salaries
NNA/February 28, 2023
Members of Tyre municipal police have stormed SGBL bank demanding they be given their salaries for the months of February and March, our correspondent reported on Tuesday.

Fuel prices edge up in Lebanon
NNA/February 28, 2023
Fuel prices have increased in Lebanon on Tuesday, with the price of a canister of 95-octane gasoline rising by LBP 72,000, that of 98-octane gasoline by LBP 74,000, that of diesel by LBP 73,000, and that of LP gas by LBP 56,000.
Consequently, prices are as follows:
95-octane gasoline: LBP 1,545,000
98-octane gasoline: LBP 1,582,000
Diesel: LBP 1,469,000
LP gas: LBP 1,036,000

Lebanese state media archives looted in heart of Beirut
Associated Presst/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Unknown assailants broke into the offices of Lebanon's state-run National News Agency and stole the servers that contain its archives, the Information Ministry said. The theft occurred in a tightly secured area, further reflecting the cash-strapped country's continued decay. The archives are located in a building that houses two ministries, across the street from the Lebanese central bank, and adjacent to the heavily-guarded Interior Ministry that is in charge of security in the country. Information Ministry employees Monday morning saw the door to the archive room below ground level open and its lock broken. According to the statement from caretaker Information Minister Ziad Makari, the archives contained photos and material dating back to 1961. The assailants also stole five computers. Makari later tweeted that only a small part of the archives were stolen and that the main database is still accessible. "The repercussions of the robbery are both moral and material," he tweeted. "Work is underway and we will not stop to uncover the perpetrators and punish them." The theft is another blow to Lebanon as it confronts a devastating economic crisis. The country for years has struggled to fund and maintain its state media agencies and archives. France and Lebanon in 2022 signed an agreement to digitize its archives as part of wider efforts to preserve Lebanese heritage and history. Laure Sleiman, who was the state-run news agency's director from 2009 until late 2019, led the archival process after discovering over two million photo negatives in a dark room with broken furniture, office equipment, and rats. Makari said an investigation is currently underway to find the stolen servers and apprehend the perpetrators. "I cannot express the sadness I felt when I heard the news," Sleiman told The Associated Press. "I trust in the work of the intelligence branch, but it will all depend who stole it and if politics will intervene in the investigation as it always does."

Lebanon back to Basketball World Cup as Serbia grabs last spot
Naharnett/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
The Basketball World Cup field is now filled, and Lebanon is back, after its most recent appearance was in 2010.
THE FIELD
Serbia grabbed the last spot in this summer’s 32-team tournament. Serbia qualifying means 10 of the top 11 teams in the world rankings reached the World Cup. The exception was No. 4 Argentina, the silver medalist in 2019. No. 1 Spain, No. 2 United States, No. 3 Australia, No. 5 France, No. 6 Serbia, No. 7 Slovenia, No. 8 Lithuania, No. 9 Greece, No. 10 Italy and No. 11 Germany have qualified. There will be two first-round groups that include two of those teams. And none of the four teams involved in that scenario will be thrilled when they see that draw. The lowest-ranked teams in the field are four of the five African qualifiers: No. 43 Ivory Coast, No. 55 Egypt, No. 63 South Sudan and No. 66 Cape Verde.
HELLO
Cape Verde, South Sudan, Georgia and Latvia are in the tournament for the first time.
THEY’RE BACK
There are 23 teams that were in the 2019 World Cup and have qualified again for this year’s event, a list led by the United States and Brazil — the only nations to appear in all 19 editions of the tournament. Spain has been to each of the last 11 World Cups. Puerto Rico has been to each of the last 10. The other 19 nations that are back from 2019: Angola, New Zealand, France, Greece, Australia, Lithuania, Serbia, Iran, Dominican Republic, Philippines, Montenegro, Jordan, Venezuela, Japan, Ivory Coast, Germany, China, Italy and Canada. Finland, Slovenia, Egypt and Mexico are back in the field after last reaching the World Cup in 2014. Lebanon is back, after its most recent appearance was in 2010.
THEY’RE NOT BACK
These nine nations appeared in the 2019 tournament and won’t be back this summer: Argentina, South Korea, Turkey, Senegal, Nigeria, Tunisia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Russia. FIBA banned Russia’s teams and officials from its competitions last year in response to that country’s invasion of Ukraine.
THE TOURNAMENT
The group phase — eight groups of four teams — runs from Aug. 25 through Aug. 30. The second round is Aug. 31 through Sept. 4.
Quarterfinal games will be played on Sept. 5 and 6. The semifinals are Sept. 8, and the championship and third-place game in Manila are Sept. 10. That’s about two weeks before NBA training camps are scheduled to open, barring a lockout this summer.
THE DRAW
Each nation will be assigned to a four-team opening-round group on April 29. The top two teams from each of those groups will make the second round. The U.S. will play its group-stage games in the Philippines, and will stay there for the entirety of its stay in the tournament — as will the Philippines. Slovenia and Japan will play group-stage games in Okinawa, Japan. Canada will play its group-stage games in Jakarta, Indonesia. All teams will find out their opponents, and all the other teams that don’t already know their group-stage destinations, at the April 29 draw.
AT STAKE
The World Cup will be a way for seven teams to qualify for the 2024 Paris Olympics. Of those, two will come from the Americas Region, two from Europe, one from Africa, one from Asia and one from Oceania. The other five Olympic berths will be decided by qualifying tournaments this summer, with 40 nations set to be invited to play for those spots. There are 39 nations that now have confirmed invitations: Argentina, Bahamas, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cameroon, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Colombia, Congo, Cuba, Czech Republic, Estonia, Great Britain, Guinea, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Korea, Mali, Netherlands, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sweden, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, Uruguay and the Virgin Islands. The 40th spot is likely to go to Croatia, a decision that FIBA is set to finalize on April 28.

Lebanon: Mikati Rejects Accusations of Interfering in Judiciary
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati reiterated that his calls on the outgoing Interior Minister to block judicial “violations” taken by FPM Judge Ghada Aoun against local banks are not considered an interference in the judiciary.
He emphasized that some decisions must be taken for the good of the country. “We have already emphasized respect for the judiciary in our ministerial statement and emphasized non interference in its affairs, but some matters are strongly linked to Lebanon’s high interest and to the path of the judiciary which truly affects the course of justice,” said Mikati at the opening of Monday’s Cabinet meeting. He said there would be no need for a similar decision “when the judiciary purifies itself from impurities and addresses exaggerations". He assured that it was discussed beforehand with the related judges. He added that “exceptional circumstances require exceptional decisions”, noting that the move was not taken to protect anyone. The decision was initially taken to protect the banking sector, “the major pillar of the country’s economy", he stated. On Wednesday, Mikati and caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi moved to block the work of Judge Ghada Aoun, who has been investigating Lebanon's financial sector since it collapsed in 2019 following decades of corrupt government, profligate spending and financial mismanagement. Mikati sent a letter to Mawlawi on Wednesday asking that security forces "not carry out decisions issued by" Aoun as they were "an overstepping of authority." The banks have been on strike since Feb. 7, following a meeting to discuss the snowballing legal measures they have been facing since Lebanon's economy began to unravel more than three years ago. Lebanon's banks suspended the strike for one week at the request of Mikati, the Association of the Banks of Lebanon announced on Friday, days after the prime minister moved against judge Aoun.


/تقرير مفصل من جريدة الجيروزاليم بوست يروي تفاصيل ملاحقة واعتقال محمد إبراهيم بزي في رومانيا المُدرَج على لائحة الإرهاب الأميركية وهو من أخطر الإرهابيين الممولين لحزب الله
Arrest of Hezbollah financier ‘most senior catch’ since 2017 – analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/February 28/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116188/seth-j-frantzman-jerusalem-post-arrest-of-hezbollah-financier-most-senior-catch-since-2017-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%81%d8%b5%d9%84-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%ac%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%a9/

The US seeks to extradite the alleged financier of Lebanese and Belgian citizenship.
The arrest of Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi in Romania last week is an important step against Hezbollah. The US had wanted Bazzi since at least 2018, and his arrest in Bucharest is viewed as a success. Much remains to be done on the case, as the US will need to extradite the alleged financier of Lebanese and Belgian citizenship.
Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said that “Bazzi is the most senior catch in the top tier of Hezbollah’s BAC since the 2017 arrest and extradition of Kassem Tajeddine. Bazzi is a close associate of the heads of the BAC, namely Abdallah Safieddine and Adham Tabaja, with whom he coordinated his activities.” BAC stands for “Business Affairs Component,” Hezbollah’s organizational structure that runs its global network of businesses and enterprises, Badran noted in an email.
Of particular interest is the financier’s role in West Africa, particularly The Republic of the Gambia, a small country of 2.6 million people bordered by Senegal. “He was the most significant minority shareholder in Prime Bank in The Gambia, which allegedly was a critical money-laundering instrument for Hezbollah in West Africa. Prime Bank was a subsidiary of the Lebanese-Canadian Bank, the infamous money-laundering machine in Lebanon,” Badran noted. Numerous articles in the media focusing on Africa and the Gambia have alleged massive corruption linked to the West African country.
That bank was highlighted over the years in various reports as being at the center of money laundering and a “hub of Hezbollah,” according to The New York Times. In a conversation with Matthew Levitt at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in March 2022, the bank’s role was highlighted.
Danny Glaser, who served as Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the US Treasury Department from 2011-2017, told Levitt that the “Lebanese Canadian bank was an important node within a broader global money laundering and money moving system that Hezbollah had established. Hezbollah would move money from all over the world. But in order to use that money effectively to advance their aims within the Middle East and within Lebanon and Syria, they needed to move that money back to Lebanon so that they can use it.” In Gambia, Bazzi had ties to Yahya Jammeh, the leader of the country from the mid-1990s to 2017. “Jammeh appointed Bazzi as The Gambia’s honorary Consul to Lebanon – a diplomatic cover that Hezbollah has exploited. His close association with Jammeh allegedly also included organizing and financing major weapons shipments from Iran,” Badran noted.
A 2010 article at Reuters asserted that “crates of weapons including rocket launchers and mortars seized in Nigeria this week were loaded in Iran by a local trader,” and apparently had connections to the Gambia as well. This was only the tip of the iceberg of what was going on in the Gambia in terms of corruption prior to 2017, according to reports.
Jammeh was forced to leave power after losing elections in 2017, after 22 years in power. “If Jammeh’s political and mercenary network kept him in power, it was his links to the business world that enabled much of his corruption. His office allowed foreign companies to bypass tender procedures, handing them government contracts and opening the country’s public purse for pillaging,” a report at the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project noted in 2019.
How long will Bazzi’s extradition take?
A KEY QUESTION for US authorities will be how long the extradition of Bazzi will take. Badran notes that in the case of “Kassem Tajeddine, for example, it was very quick. In other cases, such as that of Ali Fayad, who was arrested in the Czech Republic in 2014, the extradition was denied as Hezbollah kidnapped Czech citizens in Lebanon in 2015, who they held hostage to pressure the Czechs.”
In 2016, the US embassy in Prague criticized a decision by the Czech Republic’s justice minister to not extradite Fayad. In the case of Tajeddine, he pleaded guilty to money-laundering charges in 2019 and was sentenced to five years in prison.
However, NBC noted in 2020 that “the Justice Department is appealing a federal judge’s decision to grant an early release to a Lebanese man labeled by US authorities as a Hezbollah financier, arguing he does not qualify to be freed on ‘compassionate grounds’ due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to court documents.”
This means that even if Bazzi is extradited, it’s not clear for how long he might end up in prison, even if the government wins its case against him. What is important in the case is that it once again sheds light on the US government’s continuing attempts to go after the financial web that underpins Hezbollah operations. Media in the Middle East have highlighted this case as the arrest of a “key” financier.
The role of Bazzi in West Africa has been highlighted for more than a decade and a half. The Lebanese Hezbollah select worldwide activity map that Levitt pioneered has several references to Bazzi and the Gambia. Writing in 2018 in a piece for the AJC, Levitt noted that “efforts to peel away at the onion that is the Hezbollah criminal enterprise, and particularly the BAC, continue.
“Most recently, on May 17, 2018, the US Treasury designated Hezbollah However, NBC noted in 2020 that “the Justice Department is appealing a federal judge’s decision to grant an early release to a Lebanese man labeled by US authorities as a Hezbollah financier, arguing he does not qualify to be freed on ‘compassionate grounds’ due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to court documents.”
This means that even if Bazzi is extradited, it’s not clear for how long he might end up in prison, even if the government wins its case against him. What is important in the case is that it once again sheds light on the US government’s continuing attempts to go after the financial web that underpins Hezbollah operations. Media in the Middle East have highlighted this case as the arrest of a “key” financier.
The role of Bazzi in West Africa has been highlighted for more than a decade and a half. The Lebanese Hezbollah select worldwide activity map that Levitt pioneered has several references to Bazzi and the Gambia. Writing in 2018 in a piece for the AJC, Levitt noted that “efforts to peel away at the onion that is the Hezbollah criminal enterprise, and particularly the BAC, continue.
“Most recently, on May 17, 2018, the US Treasury designated Hezbollah However, NBC noted in 2020 that “the Justice Department is appealing a federal judge’s decision to grant an early release to a Lebanese man labeled by US authorities as a Hezbollah financier, arguing he does not qualify to be freed on ‘compassionate grounds’ due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to court documents.”
This means that even if Bazzi is extradited, it’s not clear for how long he might end up in prison, even if the government wins its case against him. What is important in the case is that it once again sheds light on the US government’s continuing attempts to go after the financial web that underpins Hezbollah operations. Media in the Middle East have highlighted this case as the arrest of a “key” financier.
The role of Bazzi in West Africa has been highlighted for more than a decade and a half. The Lebanese Hezbollah select worldwide activity map that Levitt pioneered has several references to Bazzi and the Gambia. Writing in 2018 in a piece for the AJC, Levitt noted that “efforts to peel away at the onion that is the Hezbollah criminal enterprise, and particularly the BAC, continue.
“Most recently, on May 17, 2018, the US Treasury designated Hezbollah financier and close [Adham] Tabaja associate Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi and five companies he owns or controls. According to information released by the Treasury Department, Bazzi has provided millions of dollars to Hezbollah from the businesses he operates in Belgium, Lebanon, Iraq, and several West African countries.” Tabaja had been designated back in 2015.
Overall, the Bazzi case appears to exemplify and symbolize the multilayered ways that Hezbollah operates, including how its financiers operate with numerous companies and how this has affected governments, like the former regime in the Gambia. For many years, this appeared to go under the radar. In other cases, expediency or other policies – such as the drive for the Iran deal – may have moved the spotlight off some of the nefarious activities of Hezbollah. The overall web of this group is so large that it appears in many cases that only one part of the Hezbollah elephant is being touched at a time. It remains to be seen if this case will lead to more revelations and whether extradition will go smoothly.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-732875?fbclid=IwAR0KUlHXn9ZyN02uYIE8mpAKrHG_TAO2S-7-w-t6kdLXGUhOkrnp3-JGlxg

A new initiative to fill presidential vacuum in Lebanon
Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/ February 28, 2023
Walid Jumblatt continues consultations with all parties to seek a political consensus
It’s been over months now, and the presidential seat in Lebanon remains vacant. A series of back-to-back elections in parliament have failed to break the gridlock, although the two main contenders, Gibran Bassil and Suleiman Frangieh, are still to make a floor nomination.
Bassil is leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and son-in-law of former president Michel Aoun. Frangieh is the grandson of a former president and namesake, who is backed by Hezbollah.
Although Bassil’s parliamentary bloc is much larger than that of Frangieh (he commands 17 MPs while Frangieh controls only 2), his chance of success are minimal, if his former allies in Hezbollah don’t approve his nomination. And there is no indication from Hezbollah that it is going to back Bassil anytime soon, insisting that its only candidate for president is Frangieh.
Hezbollah still believes that it can gather a 65-vote majority for Frangieh. That’s easier said than done since it currently commands no more than 34 guaranteed votes (17 for Hezbollah and Amal each).
It claims that it can saw anywhere between 15-20 Sunni MPs into voting for Frangieh, via Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is being promised the premiership again in a Frangieh presidency. That would bring the total number of Frangieh votes up to 50-55, still not enough for a majority.
As the crisis deepens, other names have been put on the table by various regional and international players, including Army Commander Joseph Aoun. Many believe that Joseph Aoun is tough, sober, and capable of lifting his nation from the abyss. In mid-February, he got a new supporter, being veteran Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.
In a rapidly changing world, Walid Jumblatt is one of the few constants in Lebanese politics. He has been at the helm of the Druze community since inheriting its leadership after the 1977 assassination of his father, Kamal.
He is well-connected both regionally and internationally, and was formerly allied with both the Syrians and Hezbollah, until parting ways after the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri. Recent months have witnessed a warming of relations between Jumblatt and Hezbollah, but not with Damascus.
Jumblatt and the Lebanese Forces had fought bloody battles during the civil war, only to mend a very tense relationship in the aftermath of the Hariri murder. Both stood opposed to Gibran Bassil’s presidential bid and voted for Michel Moawwad simply to drown Bassil’s ambition in late-2022. Mouawwad hails from a prominent political family and his father was voted president before being killed in 1989, towards the end of the civil war.
Both Gagegea and Jumblatt knew that little to no chance at making it to Baabda Palace, given that he lacks support from the two Shiite parties, Amal and Hezbollah. Making him president would require a majority vote in parliament of 65 MPs. During the numerous voting sessions in the Chamber of Deputies, Mouawwad managed to win no more than 40-45.
Backing him, against all odds, was Jumblatt’s way of saying that he would accept anyone other than Gibran Bassil, who is held responsible for much of the ills associated with the Aoun era.
The Jumblatt Initiative
Jumblatt realises sees that the inter-Christian rivalry between Bassil and Frangieh is nowhere close to being resolved. Meanwhile, Lebanese Sunnis are seemingly absent from the presidential problem, left leaderless after Saad Al Hariri’s retirement from politics in January 2022. That leaves the presidential problem solely in the hands of the two Shiite parties, Amal and Hezbollah. Any presidential deal therefor, would have to run through them.
They are the largest constituency in Lebanon and the only one that is armed although according to the gentleman agreement of 1943, known as the National Pact, the office of president should be strictly in the hands of a Maronite Christian.
On 20 January 2023 Jumblatt received a delegation from Hezbollah to discuss Hezbollah’s conditions for president. Eleven days later, on 31 January 2023, Jumblatt said that he will not enter into a confrontation with Hezbollah over the presidential election. This means that he will eventually support — without necessarily saying it — their nomination of Suleiman Frangieh.
Jumblatt sent his son and political heir Taymour to the Maronite Church for a meeting with Patriarch Boutros Al Raii, seeing whether he favoured Frangieh or Bassil. When that too didn’t provide answers, Walid Jumblatt came up with his own initiative, suggesting three names for the presidency.
Any of them will receive the full backing of his eight MPs, a bloc that although small when compared to that of Hezbollah and the FPM, is actually big for the tiny Druze community, who are no more than 3% of Lebanon’s population.
Jumblatt’s three names
1: Army Commander Joseph Aoun, who is accepted by France, Saudi Arabia, and the Maronite Patriarch.
2: Jihad Azour, the director of the Middle East Department at the International Monetary Fund, who is accepted by Gibran Bassil, the Maronite Church, and to a lesser extent, by Hezbollah — if they lose hope in making Frangieh president.
3: Salah Hnein, a former MP from Kafarshima in Mount Lebanon, who is accepted by the bloc of 13 newcomers to parliament, known as the “Change Bloc.” They are anti-establishment and would go for anybody who challenges the existing order, especially if he is anti-Hezbollah.
This list has soured relations with Samir Gagegea, because it was put forth without prior consultation with the Lebanese Forces. It also drops Michel Mouawwad, who was Gagegea’s original candidate for president, nevertheless pleasing a handful of regional and international stakeholders.
Jumblatt did not mention Suleiman Frangieh — at least for now — but might eventually add him to the list, if forced to ultimately chose between him and Gibran Bassil.
Jumblatt knows that endorsing Joseph Aoun so openly might actually have an opposite effect on the army commander, just like what happened in mid-2022, when Aoun was endorsed by Samir Gagegea, triggering an automatic veto by Hezbollah.
He knows that Salah Hnein is not a consensus candidate, who has no support in the political elite apart from Jumblatt himself. Azour is far more acceptable, because of his portfolio and reputation, along with the fact that Hezbollah doesn’t oppose him.
But Jumblatt realises that Hezbollah will simply go for any of the three. It has one candidate only, and his name is Suleiman Frangieh.
As far as Jumblatt’s list is concerned, it is safe to assume that this may not be the final one.
**Sami Moubayed is a historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 28 - March 01/2023
Iranian Regime Tightens House Arrest for Mir-Hossein Mousavi
London, Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023 - Iranian authorities have tightened house arrest restrictions on reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Kalameh website, which is close to Mousavi, reported that his confinement became more restricted after he released a statement in support of the “Women, Life, Freedom Movement”, and called for a referendum to establish a new political system in Iran. The website said authorities introduced new restrictions starting last Sunday, the 13th anniversary of when authorities first imposed the house arrest on Mousavi, his wife, reformist activist Zahra Rahnavard, and their ally, reformist leader Mehdi Karroubi. Kalameh did not disclose the details of the new restrictions but added that it will publish more information soon. Mousavi, who was a presidential candidate in the 2009 disputed election and has been under house arrest since 2011, said in a statement earlier this month that Iran needs “fundamental change” based on “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement. The movement was launched in wake of the death in custody last year of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian Kurd, who was arrested by the morality police for not adhering to the country’s strict dress code for women. In his statement, released to mark the 44th anniversary of the 1979 revolution, Mousavi also called for constitutional change. The reformist camp has long demanded easing the strict house arrest imposed on Mousavi and his wife, arguing that their health is deteriorating. Iranian authorities have never pressed any charges against Mousavi or Karroubi, but that might change after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei described the latest protest movement as “sedition.”Mousavi’s call for change was backed by several of his reformist supporters, as well as religious and political figures critical of the regime. Authorities have, however, put pressure on dozens of political activists to withdraw their support for Mousavi. Mousavi’s ally, former President Muhammad Khatami, issued a statement in which he implicitly distanced himself from his proposals, stressing that the overthrow of the regime “is not possible.”

Canada Targets IRGC, Law Enforcement Officials in Fresh Iran Sanctions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
The Canadian government on Monday said it was imposing sanctions on 12 senior officials from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) for their participation in "gross and systematic human rights violations." The targeted officials include Kurdistan Province Governor Esmaeil Zarei Kousha and Morteza Mir Aghaei, Commander of Basij paramilitary forces in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province, Canada's foreign ministry said in a statement.

Iran can make fissile material for a bomb 'in about 12 days' - U.S. official
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Tue, February 28, 2023
House Armed Services Committee hearing on oversight of U.S. military support to Ukraine
Iran could make enough fissile for one nuclear bomb in "about 12 days," a top U.S. Defense Department official said on Tuesday, down from the estimated one year it would have taken while the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was in effect.
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl made the comment to a House of Representatives hearing when pressed by a Republican lawmaker why the Biden administration had sought to revive the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
"Because Iran's nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable. Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb's worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days," Kahl, the third ranking Defense Department official, told lawmakers. "And so I think there is still the view that if you could resolve this issue diplomatically and put constraints back on their nuclear program, it is better than the other options. But right now, the JCPOA is on ice," Kahl added. U.S. officials have repeatedly estimated Iran's breakout time - how long it would take to acquire the fissile material for one bomb if it decided to - at weeks but have not been as specific as Kahl was. While U.S. officials say Iran has grown closer to producing fissile material they do not believe it has mastered the technology to actually build a bomb. Under the 2015 deal, which then-U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018, Iran had reined in its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions. Trump reimposed U.S. sanctions on Iran, leading Tehran to resume previously banned nuclear work and reviving U.S., European and Israeli fears that Iran may seek an atomic bomb. Iran denies any such ambition. The Biden administration has tried but failed to revive the pact over the last two years.

Iran’s FM Accuses the West of ‘Inciting Unrest’
London – Adil al-Salmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023 
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has accused Western countries of “inciting” unrest in Iran. In a speech before the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Amir-Abdollahian defended the Iranian authorities’ handling of the protests that erupted last September following the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, while she was in police custody. Amir-Abdollahian pointed out that Tehran has formed a committee to investigate all aspects of the “riots,” identify those responsible for the unrest, and “verify allegations and accusations against security forces.”The foreign minister said that respect for human rights is a “fundamental value rooted” in the ruling establishment in Iran, adding that the Iranian authorities had “sympathized with Amini’s family.” “No state or a group of states should entitle themselves to claim exclusive ownership or custody of human rights. Nor should any State coerce others into submitting to any self-styled interpretation of human rights,” said Amir-Abdollahian.“I would like here to outline a few points concerning human rights and the way this lofty concept is projected, and unfortunately manipulated, for political purposes of a limited number of states,” he added, according to a statement released by the Foreign Ministry. In November, the Human Rights Council approved sending an investigation committee to Iran to probe all violations related to the suppression of protests. Later in December, the UN decided to expel Iran from the UN Committee on Women's Rights. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), 530 demonstrators, including 71 minors, were killed in Iran. Authorities have also arrested about 20,000 during an oppressive campaign to quell the protests. For her part, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock denounced human rights violations and the suppression of protests in Iran. Baerbock also demanded that any further executions be halted in Iran.


Blinken Holds Talks with Central Asian Nations in Wake of Ukraine Anniversary

Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Central Asia Tuesday to meet officials from all five former Soviet republics following the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Blinken's visit to the capitals of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is his first to the region as the Biden administration's top diplomat. The trip comes just days after the Feb. 24 anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, which has tested Moscow's influence in a region that also includes Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Leaders in the region have been emboldened to stand up to Russia by their new-found leverage as Moscow looks to their markets and trade routes in a bid to circumvent Western sanctions. Blinken will meet the foreign ministers of all five Central Asian states in Astana on Tuesday before traveling on to Tashkent, Uzbekistan. US officials say the Biden administration has stepped up engagement with the region in an effort to demonstrate the benefits of US cooperation to countries facing economic fallout from the conflict to the west. In Astana on Tuesday, Blinken met Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who was re-elected in a landslide in November and has pushed back publicly against territorial claims made by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. "We have built very good and reliable long-term partnerships in so many strategically important areas like security, energy, trade and investments," Tokayev told Blinken as they met at the imposing presidential palace. Blinken earlier told Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi that Washington supports the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Kazakhstan, which won independence from Moscow in 1991. "Sometimes we just say those words, but they actually have real meaning and of course we know in this particular time they have even more resonance than usual," Blinken said in reference to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, also a former Soviet republic. Russia and Kazakhstan share the world's longest continuous land border, prompting concern among some Kazakhs about the security of a country with the second-biggest ethnic Russian population among ex-Soviet republics after Ukraine.

Putin issues alert after drone strikes 60 miles from Moscow; Russian death toll surpasses all wars since WWII: Ukraine live updates
John Bacon, USA TODAY/Tue, February 28, 2023
Is there an end in sight for the war in Ukraine? What we know one year into the conflict.Scroll back up to restore default view. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered officials to tighten control of the Ukraine border Tuesday after a flurry of drone attacks targeted regions inside Russia – with one drone crashing just 60 miles from Moscow. Ukraine authorities did not claim responsibility for the attacks but have previously claimed the right to such forays to turn back the invasion. Russian forces early Tuesday shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Bryansk region, local Gov. Aleksandr Bogomaz said in a Telegram post. He said there were no casualties. Three drones also targeted Russia’s Belgorod region along the border, and one flew through an apartment window in its namesake capital, local authorities reported. Moscow Regional Gov. Andrei Vorobyov said the Moscow-area drone apparently was targeting – but did not hit – a Gazprom gas distribution facility. "There are no casualties or destruction on the ground," he said on Telegram. "There are no risks to the safety of local residents."
Developments:
►Air raid alarms interrupted TV and radio programming in several Russian regions Tuesday. Russia’s Emergency Ministry said in an online statement that the announcement was a hoax resulting from hacking.
►At least two civilians were killed and 17 more wounded by renewed Russian shelling in the southern Ukraine city of Kherson and surrounding villages, Ukraine authorities said Tuesday.
Russian death toll surpasses all its wars since WWII
More than 60,000 Russian troops have died in the first year of the Ukraine war, more than all Russian wars since World War II combined, a new study says.
The analysis by the Center for Strategic International Studies estimates that 60,000 to 70,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine. Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 to 250,000 total casualties – personnel wounded, killed and missing – during the first year of the war, the analysis says. In comparison, Russia suffered 13,000 to 25,000 fatalities in Chechnya from 1994-2009, and 14,000 to 16,000 in Afghanistan from 1979-89. "Some types of authoritarian regimes are willing to accept high casualties in interstate conflicts, but Russian casualty numbers are unprecedented for post-World War II Russia," the analysis says. The Ukrainian military has also performed "remarkably well" against a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian military, in part due to the innovation of its forces, the analysis says. It adds that Russian President Vladimir Putin has thus far been willing to accept large numbers of Russian fatalities with limited political repercussions, "but it is unclear that he will be able to do so forever." Contributing: Maureen Groppe, USA TODAY; The Associated Press

German minister concerned about Israel's judicial overhaul
Associated Press/February 28, 2023
Germany's foreign minister voiced concern about the Israeli government's plans to overhaul the country's legal system during a visit Tuesday by her Israeli counterpart, and said that introducing the death penalty for Palestinians convicted in deadly attacks would be "a big mistake."Israel has seen large and regular protests in recent weeks against the judicial overhaul proposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's new coalition government, which includes a bill that would enable lawmakers to overturn a Supreme Court decision with a simple majority. The plans are moving steadily ahead despite calls for dialogue and consensus from American Jews and Israel's president. Protesters argue that the proposed changes threaten Israel's democratic values and would concentrate power with the ruling coalition in parliament. Netanyahu and his ruling coalition believe the court has had unchecked power for years. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at a news conference in Berlin with Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen that "we abroad are concerned about some Israeli legislative plans." "The values that bind us together include the protection of principles of the rule of law such as judicial independence," she added. "This was always a hallmark of Israel."Cohen said that Israel is "a vibrant democracy" and declared that "in the end of the day, our judicial reform will strengthen the Israeli democracy." Baerbock signaled "particular concern" over the bill to impose the death penalty on Palestinians convicted in fatal attacks. That measure has been given initial approval by an Israeli ministerial committee and sent to lawmakers for further debate. She noted that Germany opposes the death penalty everywhere and argued that it has proven ineffective as a deterrent. The minister added that Germans are taught in school that Israel has only carried out the death penalty in one case — that of Adolf Eichmann, who played a major role in the Holocaust, in the early 1960s — despite facing a bigger terror threat than any other country. "This was always an impressive argument for those of us who have defended Israel against unfair criticism on the international stage," Baerbock said. "So, as a friend, I am convinced it would be a big mistake to break with this history."Germany is a close ally of Israel in Europe and has traditionally refrained from strong public criticism of its government.

Putin is losing the race against time in Ukraine
Dominic Nicholls/The Telegraph/February 28, 2023
Russia’s much-anticipated counter-offensive has been grinding through frozen mud and the blasted landscape of eastern Ukraine for some weeks now. The timing, purpose and means by which the attack is being conducted speaks volumes about Russia’s ability - physically and intellectually - to sustain this war, and of a fear in the Kremlin that if they don’t dominate events, events will very quickly be dictated to them by Ukraine. The cost has been horrific for both sides, but Russia, even without accounting for the poorly trained, equipped and led conscripts and mobilised men doing much of the fighting, has come off worst. Western officials say Putin has lost around 40,000 dead and at least three times that figure wounded, missing or taken prisoner. Attacking forces normally take the greater casualties; defenders that are well dug in and prepared are better able to withstand the violence of the contact battle. Ukrainian soldiers take their positions on the frontline with Russian troops near Ugledar, Donetsk region -
Even so, it is estimated that one Russian dies for every three injured. The equivalent figure for Ukraine is thought to be one in 20, the difference explained by Kyiv’s much more efficient, professional and capable medical chain. To be a Russian infantryman in eastern Ukraine right now is to live a sad, terrifying and pitiless existence. It is likely to be brief. The shell of the city that once went by the name of Bakhmut has cost Moscow thousands in terms of dead and injured. Russian forces still haven’t managed to completely encircle the last remaining Ukrainian troops that have drawn such a cost for every inch of strategically-worthless soil. Further south, in Donetsk province, two top notch Russian brigades were broken against the Ukrainian defence around the town of Vuhledar. The Kremlin insists the effort should continue, with conscripts and the recently mobilised. Predictably, these less capable and experienced forces are simply being chewed up by Ukrainian artillery. To the north, in Luhansk province, Moscow’s troops fight towards Kupyansk, a rail hub, and Lyman, a small city, both liberated last autumn. Neither shows signs of falling anytime soon. What is Russia’s aim now? To take Kyiv, to dominate the Donbas? To celebrate a pyrrhic victory over an irrelevant shell of a town? The Kremlin is desperate for a breakthrough, for good news, for anything to justify the cost of this stalled, ridiculous, morally-bankrupt endeavour. That in itself has become the aim, but good military strategy is not born of poor political direction. So they push on, fearful of questioning The Boss in Moscow, using tactics openly derided as “human wave” by Britain’s defence secretary and without a proper operational reserve - an uncommitted and well rested force able to exploit any success or plug the gaps if the enemy breaks through. Ukraine keeps holding on Ukraine is hurting, of course, and continues to hold on. But why has Russia reverted, in the third decade of the 21st-century, to tactics Stalin would recognise from battles over this same ground 80 years ago? Because the military and political leaderships in Kyiv and Moscow know Ukraine is - probably - winning the race right now.
The race?
Can Russia mobilise enough men and drag enough tired and rusty T-62 tanks and Cold War-era D-30 howitzers out of retirement to keep grinding west, before Ukrainian troops arrive on the battlefield, schooled by Nato and other supporters in “combined arms” warfare - where tanks, infantry, artillery, engineers and all the other component parts of a modern military force work together? The frozen winter ground is about to thaw, giving way to the cloying mud of the biannual rasputitsa - a rainy early spring - which will bring to a halt all but the most determined cross-country transit. Once that is over and the mud bakes under the summer sun, Ukraine hopes to be able to free the German Leopard tanks, the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and the French Caesar self-propelled artillery systems, alongside other heavy metal Western gifts. I was once told by a commander that if the word “hope” enters your plan at all, you haven’t planned enough. That’s probably correct. But Ukraine has planned; thousands of men and women are in uniform and being trained on these new systems as you read these words. Russia does not have the equipment to do likewise, hence looking to China for help. Xi Jinping, embarrassed by the poor performance of his neighbour in what he had been promised would be a short, sharp “special” military operation, is reluctant to ride to the rescue. Putin knows this, so continues to insist his men are driven forwards, for ground of questionable military significance and likely at the cost of their lives. He won’t care. All his forces are capable of doing is grinding on, hoping to grab something of value before the Ukrainian-operated, Western-donated armour arrives to drive what is left of his force, and his imperialist ambition, into the ground.

Putin orders Ukraine border tightening as drones hit Russia
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/SUSIE BLANN/Tue, February 28, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday ordered officials to tighten control of the border with Ukraine after a spate of drone attacks that Russian authorities blamed on Kyiv delivered a new challenge to Moscow more than a year after its full-scale invasion of its neighbor.
One drone crashed just 100 kilometers (60 miles) away from Moscow in an alarming development for Russian defenses. While Putin didn’t refer to any specific attacks in a speech in the Russian capital, his comments came hours after drone attacks targeted several areas in southern and western Russia and authorities closed the airspace over St. Petersburg in response to what some reports said was a drone. Also Tuesday, several Russian television stations aired a missile attack warning that officials blamed on a hacking attack. The drone attacks caused no casualties but provoked a security stir as the war with Kyiv stretched into its second year last week. Ukrainian officials didn’t immediately claim responsibility for the attacks, but they similarly avoided directly acknowledging responsibility for previous strikes and sabotage while emphasizing Ukraine’s right to hit any target in Russia following the full-scale invasion that began last year.A flurry of drone attacks on Monday night and Tuesday morning targeted regions inside Russia along the border with Ukraine and deeper into the country, according to local Russian authorities.
A drone fell near the village of Gubastovo, 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Moscow, Andrei Vorobyov, governor of the region surrounding the Russian capital, said in an online statement. The drone didn’t inflict any damage, Vorobyov said. He didn't specifically describe the drone as Ukrainian, but said that it likely targeted “a civilian infrastructure object.”Pictures of the drone showed it was a Ukrainian-made type. It reportedly has a range of up to 800 kilometers (nearly 500 miles), but isn’t capable of carrying a large load of explosives.
Russian forces early Tuesday shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Bryansk region, local Gov. Aleksandr Bogomaz said in a Telegram post. He said there were no casualties.Three drones also targeted Russia’s Belgorod region on Monday night, with one flying through an apartment window in its namesake capital, local authorities reported. Regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said the drones caused minor damage to buildings and cars but no casualties. The Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukraine used drones to attack facilities in the Krasnodar region and neighboring Adygea. It said the drones were brought down by electronic warfare assets, adding that one of them crashed into a field and another diverted from its designated flight path and missed an infrastructure facility it was supposed to attack.
While Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian border regions of Bryansk and Belgorod that lie north of Ukraine’s Sumy region aren't unusual, the hits on the Krasnodar and Adygea regions further south are noteworthy. A fire broke out at an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region on Monday, Russia’s state RIA Novosti agency reported. Russian Telegram channels claimed that two drones exploded near the depot. While some Russian commentators described the drone attacks as an attempt by Ukraine to showcase its capability to strike areas deep behind the lines, foment tensions in Russia and rally the Ukrainian public, some Russian war bloggers described the raids as a possible rehearsal of a bigger, more ambitious attack. Last year, Russian authorities repeatedly reported shooting down Ukrainian drones over annexed Crimea. In December, the Russian military said Ukraine used drones to hit two bases for long-range bombers deep inside Russian territory. Separately, the local government of St. Petersburg — Russia’s second-largest city about 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) north of the border with Ukraine — said early Tuesday that it was temporarily halting all flight departures and arrivals at the city’s main airport, Pulkovo. It didn't give a reason for the move. Hours earlier, unconfirmed reports on Russia's Telegram social network referred to the airspace over St. Petersburg being shut down and to Russian warplane overflights. It wasn't immediately clear whether this was connected to the alleged uptick in drone attacks in Russia’s south.
The Russian military said its air defense forces in Western Russia conducted drills on “detection, interception and identification” of enemy targets in its airspace, and in coordination with civilian air traffic services in an emergency situation.
The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t specifically mention St. Petersburg, but its statement appeared designed to explain the temporary closure of the airspace. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on the situation in St. Petersburg, urging reporters to wait for details from the country’s aviation authorities or the military. He noted, however, that Putin had “full information” on the situation. Speaking at Russia’s main security agency, the FSB, Putin urged the service to tighten security on the Ukraine border.
Russian media reported on Tuesday morning that in several Russian regions an air raid alarm interrupted the programming of several TV channels and radio stations. Footage posted by some news sites showed TV sets displaying a yellow sign with a person heading to a bomb shelter, with a female voice repeating: “Attention! Air raid alarm. Everyone should head to a shelter immediately.”Russia’s Emergency Ministry said in an online statement that the announcement was a hoax “resulting from a hacking of the servers of radio stations and TV channels in some regions of the country.”Inside Ukraine, authorities said Tuesday that at least two civilians were killed by renewed Russian shelling in the southern city of Kherson and surrounding villages and 17 more were wounded in fighting over the previous 24 hours. The fiercest fighting continued to be in eastern areas of Ukraine, where Russia wants control over all four of the provinces it illegally annexed in September. Ukrainian officials said that Russian forces have deployed additional troops and equipment, including modern T-90 tanks, in those areas. Meanwhile, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press appear to show a Beriev A-50 early warning aircraft was parked at a Belarus air base just before a claimed attack by partisans there. Images from Planet Labs PBC shows the A-50, a late Soviet era aircraft known for its distinctive rotodome above its fuselage, parked at the northern apron of the Machulishchy Air Base near Minsk, Belarus’ capital, on Feb. 19. A lower-resolution image taken on Feb. 23 shows a similarly-shaped aircraft still parked there, though heavy cloud cover has blocked any images since. Belarusian opposition organization BYPOL claimed that guerrillas damaged the A-50 in an attack Sunday. The Associated Press has been unable to independently confirm the claimed attack, which both Belarus and Russia have yet to acknowledge.
*Jon Gambrell contributed to this report from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Mystery Shrouds Fate of UN Plan for Unloading FSO Safer
Riyadh - Abdulhadi Habtor/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Mystery shrouds the fate of FSO Safer, an aging oil tanker moored off the west coast of Yemen, after a UN plan to transfer around 1.1 million barrels of crude oil onboard the derelict vessel to a new tanker faltered due to a lack of funding. The FSO Safer, owned by the Yemeni government, has been floating at sea without any maintenance since the terrorist Houthi militia took control of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, in September 2014. According to experts, the vessel, which is holding more than a million barrels of oil, has been described as a “time bomb” because it is at risk of causing a major spill, either from leaking, breaking apart or exploding.
A Yemeni source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that the failure of the UN plan so far may be due to a lack of funding to purchase a new tanker. The UN had planned to transfer the oil onboard FSO Safer into another tanker to prevent an environmental disaster in the Red Sea. “It seems that they need additional financing to buy a new tanker, prices have gone up and they didn't expect it,” said the source who requested anonymity. Houthis accused the UN of failing to implement its commitments according to an agreement concluded in March 2022. According to the agreement, the UN would unload FSO Safer after bringing an alternative ship to hold the oil. A Houthi official accused the UN of “deliberately placing the floating reservoir as it is, to request more funding from donor countries despite obtaining the required amount of $85 million.” The Houthis are using the oil tanker to blackmail the international community, the Arab Coalition and the Yemeni government, a Western diplomat confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat. The total cost of the UN plan to counter the threat of FSO Safer spilling stands at $ 144 million, including $ 80 million that are urgently required for the initial four-month emergency operation.

Quake killed more than 50,000 in Turkiye, Syria: Revised toll
AFP/February 28, 2023
BEIRUT: A devastating earthquake that struck Turkiye and Syria killed more than 50,000 people, in a toll revised by AFP that includes figures from both government and rebel-controlled parts of war-torn Syria. A total of 5,951 people were killed across Syria, while Turkiye recorded 44,374 deaths after the February 6 earthquake.The new tally brings to 50,325 the total number of deaths caused by the disaster across both countries.The Syrian government said 1,414 people had been killed in areas under its control, while Turkish-backed officials in Syria have put the death toll at 4,537 throughout rebel-held areas of the country.The toll in areas outside government control includes deaths in territory held by rival rebel groups.Local authorities relied on data collected from hospitals, medical centers and civil defense in Idlib and northern Aleppo province, health official Maram Al-Sheikh told AFP.
They also included civilian sources, he said, many of whom buried their dead without taking them to hospital. The toll was finalized with help from the Assistance Coordination Unit (ACU) organization, a local United Nations partner. The UN said it relied on the ACU’s data, including death tolls.
The death toll in rebel areas was “almost final, since most victims have been pulled from under the rubble,” he said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor had reported 2,243 people killed in government-held areas — recording 824 more deaths than the official toll.
Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the Britain-based group, said their tally was higher because it included “50 villages that rescuers did not reach.”The group, which relies on a wide network of sources inside Syria, had reported the same death toll as the rebels in the northwest. AFP had previously reported 3,688 deaths across Syria, compiling official government figures and data released by the White Helmets rescue group in the northwest. The rebel rescuers told AFP their toll mostly included bodies they had removed from the rubble themselves. The quake came nearly 12 years into Syria’s civil war which devastated swathes of the country, killed nearly half a million people and displaced millions more.

Around 40,000 Syrians Return from Türkiye after Quake
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
Around 40,000 Syrians who had fled areas affected by the deadly Feb. 6 earthquake have returned from Türkiye to opposition-held northwestern Syria in the two weeks since Türkiye eased restrictions on their movements, a Turkish official and a Syrian rebel official said.
The immigration was recorded at four border crossings held by Syrian armed groups opposed to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Mazen Alloush, a media officer at the rebel-held Bab Al-Hawa border crossing with Türkiye, told Reuters. As of Monday, some 13,500 had crossed through Bab al-Hawa, nearly 10,000 through Jarabulus crossing and around 7,000 each through the Bab al-Salam and Tal Abiad crossings, according to a table of statistics Alloush provided. A Turkish defense ministry official confirmed that the number of Syrians who had returned to their country reached 40,000 as of Monday. More Syrians were returning and the number was increasing daily, the official added. Restrictions put in place by Türkiye in April last year, just before the Eid al Fitr holiday, had banned Syrians with temporary protection permits from making round-trips to Syria in an effort promote one-way returns. Türkiye hosts some 3.5 million Syrian refugees and anti-refugee sentiment has been on the rise in recent years. In the aftermath of the quake, Syrians have taken advantage of an offer from Turkish authorities to spend up to six months in the northwest without losing the chance to return. Many have gone back to check on relatives following the temblor that killed more than 44,000 people in Türkiye and around 6,000 in Syria, most of them in the country's opposition-held northwest, according to the UN. Others have temporarily moved in with relatives after their homes and businesses in Türkiye were destroyed in the quake. "The plan is to go see our relatives and get out of this difficult atmosphere here," said Khaled al-Ahmed, a Syrian laborer in his mid-50s who had been living in Kahramanmaras, one of the worse-hit areas. He and his 10 children were waiting to proceed past the Turkish side of the Bab al-Hawa crossing at the weekend, the first time they would return to Syria since leaving as refugees eight years earlier. His home had been heavily damaged and work stopped, he said. "People are going without knowing where they are heading, they just want to get out of here for now," he said, adding he would seek to return to Türkiye in one or two months. Around 4 million people live in northwest Syria, with most of them dependent on aid even before the latest disaster, according to the UN.

Alleged higher Iran enrichment worries Germany, Israel
BERLIN (AP)/Tue, February 28, 2023
Germany and Israel are worried about an accusation attributed to international inspectors that Iran enriched uranium to 84% purity, the German foreign minister said Tuesday, insisting that there would be no plausible civilian justification for such a move.
Annalena Baerbock spoke at a news conference with Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen days after an Iranian official called the allegation part of a “conspiracy” against Tehran amid tensions over its nuclear program. Germany is one of the world powers with which Iran entered a 2015 nuclear deal that limited its uranium enrichment to 3.67% purity — enough to fuel a nuclear power plant. Bloomberg first reported on Feb. 19 that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency had detected uranium particles enriched up to 84%. The Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog hasn't denied the report, saying only “that the IAEA is discussing with Iran the results of recent agency verification activities.”“We are united by concern about the nuclear escalation on Iran's part and about the recent reports about the very high uranium enrichment,” Baerbock said. “There is no plausible civilian justification for such a high enrichment level.”
A spokesman for Iran’s civilian nuclear program, Behrouz Kamalvandi, sought last week to portray any detection of uranium particles enriched to that level as a momentary side effect of trying to reach a finished product of 60% purity — which Tehran already has announced it is producing. However, uranium at 84% is nearly at weapons-grade levels of 90% — meaning any stockpile of that material could be quickly used to produce an atomic bomb if Iran chooses. Tehran has long insisted its program is for peaceful purposes, though the IAEA, Western intelligence agencies and nonproliferation experts say Iran pursued a secret nuclear weapons program up until 2003. Cohen pointed to two options to deal with Iran — using a so-called “snapback” mechanism in the Security Council resolution that enshrined the 2015 nuclear deal to reimpose U.N. sanctions, and “to have a credible military option on the table as well.”
“From our intelligence and from our knowledge, this is the right time to work on these two specific steps," he said. Iran is Israel's regional archrival, and recently reinstalled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu already has threatened military actions against Tehran.
Baerbock stressed the importance of “preventing a nuclear escalation by Iran by diplomatic means, because every alternative would be disastrous.” She added that “it's important ... that the international community make this clear to Iran with a united voice.”

West Bank violence in Palestinian town described as 'a pogrom' by Israeli military commander
Sky News/Tue, February 28, 2023
A senior commander in the Israeli military has described the violence by Israeli settlers in the Palestinian town of Hawara on Sunday night as "a pogrom". Major General Yossi Fuchs, who is in charge of West Bank operations, admitted his soldiers had been caught off-guard by the size of the rampage. As many as 400 Jewish settlers marched on Hawara after the killing of two Jewish men earlier that day. They burnt cars and houses, and many Palestinian families had to be rescued, in fear of their lives. The use of the word pogrom in this instance is highly emotive and significant for Israelis because it historically refers to extreme and organised violence against Jews, particularly in 19th-century Tsarist Russia. Sky News understands there was genuine outrage in Israeli military headquarters at the scenes on Sunday. One source said they were "horrified" by what they saw and described the violence as "disgraceful". Hundreds of thousands of pounds have been raised by Israelis on an online funding page set up to help the Palestinian victims of Sunday's violence. International condemnation has been strong - the EU said it is "highly concerned by the spiralling violence" and the US Special Representative for Palestinian Affairs took the rare step of visiting the victims of the attacks in person. Many large Jewish-American organisations have also denounced the violence. A man killed in the West Bank on Monday has been identified as a 26-year-old American-Israeli citizen, Elan Ganeles. He was shot at a road junction near the city of Jericho. Multiple gunmen reportedly opened fire on the vehicle, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and two more vehicles with Israeli number plates were attacked shortly after, but no injuries were reported. The attackers set fire to their own vehicle and then fled on foot. Road blocks were set up to try and catch them. The IDF defended its tactics after criticism that it could have done more to prevent the riots, following messages on social media inciting violence. "It's too early to say (if operational mistakes were made), but it wasn't a good day," admitted the spokesman. More forces have been deployed to the area to "de-escalate the situation and keep the two sides apart". The violence coincided with rare talks between Palestinian and Israeli officials at the Red Sea resort of Aqaba in Jordan.

Israeli PM's ultranationalist ally quits as deputy minister
JERUSALEM (AP)/Tue, February 28, 2023
An ultranationalist ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tendered his resignation as a deputy minister in the new government. Avi Maoz's departure was the first crack in Netanyahu's ruling coalition, which assumed office in late December after securing a parliamentary majority in the November elections. Maoz, the head of a small ultranationalist faction known for his homophobic rhetoric and disparaging remarks about non-Orthodox Jews, said he would step down as a deputy minister, but would continue to vote with the coalition in parliament. Netanyahu's ruling coalition holds 64 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The Noam faction leader wrote in a letter to Netanyahu on Monday that he “found that there is no serious intention to uphold the coalition agreement” concerning an office to bolster Jewish identity among Israelis. Maoz is a Jewish fundamentalist and West Bank settler who is an outspoken opponent to LGBTQ rights and women serving in the military. He has voiced opposition to Arabs teaching Jewish students in Israeli schools. He has denied the legitimacy of non-Orthodox Judaism, including the Reform and Conservative movements, which are marginal in Israel but dominant in the U.S. and have long provided the country with financial and diplomatic support. Maoz’s Noam faction ran in the last elections on a joint ticket with Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, which won 14 seats in the Knesset, making it the third-largest faction. Netanyahu and his allies are advancing a series of bills that aim to weaken the Supreme Court and give politicians greater power over judicial appointments. Opponents to the judicial overhaul say the proposed changes threaten Israel’s democratic institutions and will concentrate power in the hands of the government. They've assembled weekly for mass protests. “I will continue, God willing, as a member of the coalition" and support the “very important” judicial overhaul, Moaz wrote.

Palestinian gunman kills Israeli as violence roils West Bank
Associated Press/Tue, February 28, 2023
A suspected Palestinian gunman has shot and killed an Israeli motorist in the occupied West Bank, the latest bloodshed in a fresh wave of fighting that showed no signs of slowing. The killing occurred a day after two Israelis were killed by a Palestinian gunman in the northern West Bank, triggering a rampage in which Israeli settlers torched dozens of cars and homes in a Palestinian town and one Palestinian was killed. It was the worst such violence in decades. The Israeli army said Monday's attackers opened fire at an Israeli car near the Palestinian city of Jericho, hitting the motorist. The assailants, traveling in one vehicle, then drove further and fired again, the army said. The attackers set their own vehicle afire and fled, setting off a manhunt. The 27-year-old Israeli motorist was transferred to Hadassah Medical Center in Jerusalem, where he later died of his injuries, the hospital said. The man was not immediately identified, but the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Tom Nides, said the man held American citizenship. Earlier, Israel sent hundreds more troops to the northern West Bank to restore calm after Sunday's violence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, the most right-wing in Israel's history, came under criticism for its failure to halt a surge in violence and for sending what some saw as mixed messages. As Netanyahu appealed for calm, a member of his ruling coalition praised the rampage as deterrence against Palestinian attacks. The Israeli army also came under criticism for its failure to move quickly to stop the rioting, the worst such violence in decades.
"The government needs to decide what it is," veteran columnist Nahum Barnea wrote in the Yediot Ahronot newspaper. "Is it resolved to enforce law and order on Arabs and Jews alike? Or is it a fig leaf for the hilltop youth, who do as they please in the territories? That same question also applies to the army, which has thus far failed to deal effectively with either Palestinian terrorism or Jewish terrorism."The events also underscored the limitations of the traditional U.S. approach to the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Washington has been trying to prevent escalation while staying away from the politically costly task of pushing for a resolution of the core disputes. As the violence raged in the West Bank, such an attempt at conflict management was taking place Sunday in Jordan, with the U.S. bringing together Israeli and Palestinian officials to work out a plan for de-escalation.
Sunday's events kicked off when a Palestinian gunman shot and killed brothers Hillel and Yagel Yaniv, ages 21 and 19, from the Jewish settlement of Har Bracha, in a shooting ambush in the Palestinian town of Hawara in the northern West Bank. The gunman fled and remained on the loose late Monday. The brothers were buried in Jerusalem.
Following the shooting, groups of settlers rampaged along the main thoroughfare in Hawara, which is used by both Palestinians and Israeli settlers. In one video, a crowd of settlers stood in prayer as they stared at a building in flames. Late Sunday, a 37-year-old Palestinian was shot and killed by Israeli fire, two Palestinians were shot and wounded and another was beaten with an iron bar, Palestinian health officials said. Some 95 Palestinians were being treated for tear gas inhalation, according to medics. On Monday morning, the Hawara thoroughfare was lined with rows of burned-out cars and smoke-blackened buildings. Normally bustling shops remained shuttered. Palestinian media said some 30 homes and cars were torched. Sultan Farouk Abu Sris, a shop owner in Hawara, said he briefly went outside and saw scores of settlers setting containers and a home on fire. "It's destruction. They came bearing hatred," he said. At the scene of the shooting, Defense Minister Yoav Galant told reporters that Israel "cannot allow a situation in which citizens take the law into their hands," but stopped short of outright condemning the violence. Shahar Glick, a reporter for Israel's army radio station who was in Hawara, said security forces blocked the roads into town, but were caught off guard when 200 to 300 settlers entered on foot. He said only a handful of police and soldiers were there, even after activists had publicized the march on social media. The area is home to a number of hard-line settlements whose residents frequently vandalize Palestinian land and property.
Some police, Glick said, even wished the protesters well, telling them to "take care of themselves."
"For the journalists, It was clear to us from the outset, as we walked behind them, that this incident was developing," Glick said. "It took a long time for the security forces to understand."Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli military spokesman, said the army deployed hundreds of additional troops to the area with the aim of de-escalation. Two battalions were sent late Sunday and two more on Monday, with several hundred soldiers each. The situation remained quiet late Monday, though the army reported several cases of settler violence toward soldiers. In one instance, it said an Israeli driver tried to ram a military officer. It said soldiers fired at the tires of the vehicle, which sped away. Israeli police spokesman Dean Elsdunne said eight Israelis were detained in connection with Sunday's rioting. Six were released and two were released to home arrest, he said. Speaking at a settlement outpost reoccupied by Jewish settlers after Sunday's shooting, the firebrand Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the Jewish Power party, called for a "real war on terrorism" and legalizing the outpost, which troops were once again clearing. As for the settler violence, he added: "I understand the hard feelings, but this isn't the way, we can't take the law into our hands."Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog urged settlers not to engage in vigilante actions. Merav Michaeli of the opposition Labor Party condemned the rampage as "a pogrom by armed militias" of West Bank settlers.
In the ruling coalition, some fanned the flames.
Tzvika Foghel, a lawmaker from Ben-Gvir's party, said the rampage would help deter Palestinian attacks. "I see the result in a very good light," he told Army Radio. Sunday's violence has drawn condemnation from the international community. U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said the shooting attack and the rampage "underscore the imperative to immediately de-escalate tensions in words and deeds."Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said he held the Israeli government responsible for what he called "the terrorist acts carried out by settlers under the protection of the occupation forces tonight."
The Palestinians claim the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip — areas captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war — for a future state. Some 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. The international community overwhelmingly considers Israel's settlements as illegal and obstacles to peace. So far this year, 62 Palestinians, about half of them affiliated with armed groups, have been killed by Israeli troops and civilians. In the same period, 14 Israelis, all but one of them civilians, have been killed in Palestinian attacks. Last year was the deadliest for the Palestinians in the West Bank and east Jerusalem since 2004, according to the Israeli rights group B'Tselem. Nearly 150 Palestinians were killed in those areas, Some 30 people on the Israeli side were killed in Palestinian attacks.

New quake hits Turkey, toppling more buildings: 1 killed
Associated Press/Tue, February 28, 2023
A magnitude 5.6 earthquake shook southern Turkey on Monday, three weeks after a catastrophic temblor devastated the region, causing some already damaged buildings to collapse and killing at least one person, authorities said. More than 100 people were injured as a result of Monday's quake which was centered in the town of Yesilyurt in Malatya province, Yunus Sezer, the chief of the country's disaster management agency, AFAD, told reporters. More than two dozen buildings collapsed. A father and daughter who were trapped beneath the ruins of a four-story building in Yesilyurt were rescued with injuries. They had entered the damaged building to collect belongings. Elsewhere in Malatya, search-and-rescue teams were sifting through the rubble of two damaged buildings that toppled on some parked cars, HaberTurk reported. It was not clear if anyone was trapped under the debris. Malatya was among 11 Turkish provinces hit by the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that devastated parts of southern Turkey and northern Syria on Feb. 6. That quake led to more than 48,000 deaths in both countries as well as the collapse or serious damage of 185,000 buildings in Turkey. AFAD's chief urged people not to enter damaged buildings, saying strong aftershocks continue to pose a risk. More than 10,000 aftershocks have hit the region since Feb. 6. The World Bank said Monday it estimates that the massive earthquake caused $34.2 billion in "direct damages" — an equivalent of 4% of the country's GDP in 2021. The recovery and reconstruction cost could be potentially twice as large, the World Bank said, adding that GDP losses would also add to the earthquake's cost. The World Bank also estimated that 1.25 million people had been left temporarily homeless. Meanwhile, fans of Turkish soccer team Besiktas threw stuffed toys on the field during a match on Sunday to support children affected by the earthquake. Toys and winter clothing were thrown on the stadium's grounds to be donated to children in the earthquake-hit regions.

Abu Dhabi : 4.5 million Captagon pills seized from canned food tins
NNA - The Abu Dhabi Police arrested a person who tried to smuggle 4.5 million Captagon pills inside canned food tins to a GCC country. Brigadier General Taher Al Dhaheri, Director of the Anti-Narcotics Directorate in the Criminal Security Sector, revealed that the operation was successful thanks to a tight security plan to track the suspect’s movements. Earlier, the directorate received a tip-off from private sources about the suspect’s intention to bring a large amount of Captagon pills into the UAE to be smuggled to the GCC nation. The anti-narcotics team kept close watch over the suspect upon his arrival at a UAE port, Al Dhaheri said, noting that the suspect had imported a large amount of preserved green bean cans, which he managed to clear as foodstuff. After adopting all legal procedures, the team raided the place and arrested the suspect upon his arrival at a warehouse in one of the emirates to empty the cans of beans and hide the Captagon pills inside, he said. The professionalism of the anti-narcotics agents helped thwart the suspect’s plan and seize approximately 4.5 million Captagon pills plus the tools used in packaging them for promotion, he added. Al Dhaheri emphasised the importance of partnering and co-operating with the concerned departments and all segments of society to prevent the dangers of narcotics, calling on the public not to hesitate to report any information on drug issues. He also hailed the co-operation of the anti-narcotics agents at Umm Al Quwain Police to strengthen the efforts aimed at curbing crimes and enhancing the security and stability of the society. -- Gulf Today

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 28 - March 01/2023
The Palestinians' New Terror Groups
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 28, 2023
If the Biden Administration were serious about de-escalating tensions and preventing further violence between Israelis and Palestinians, it could have achieved this goal by demanding that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas take action against the numerous armed gangs roaming Palestinian streets.
Instead of holding a summit in Jordan or any other country, the Biden Administration needs to make clear to Abbas that he cannot have it both ways. He cannot turn a blind eye to the terror groups operating under his nose, and at the same time condemn Israel for launching counter-terrorism operations to protect Jews and prevent further terrorist attacks.
The Biden Administration could at least have demanded that Abbas rein in the terror attacks against Jews instead of glorifying terrorists and rewarding them and their families financially as part of his "pay-for-slay" incentive to go murder Jews.
Instead of condemning terrorism, Abbas and senior Palestinian officials... regularly castigate Israel for launching pre-emptive operations to prevent terror attacks that harm its people.
The Biden administration seems not to understand that by failing to condemn the murder of innocent Israeli civilians, Abbas is signaling to his people that he has no problem with the terrorists so long as they target only Jews and not him.
"Except for the Palestinian Police and Israeli military forces, no other armed forces shall be established or operate in the West Bank and Gaza Strip." — Oslo Accords Interim Agreement, September 28, 1995. [N]ot only do both the West Bank and Gaza Strip have dozens of militias and terror groups; worse, the Gaza Strip -- which was handed by Israel to the Palestinian Authority in 2005 -- is currently controlled by terror organizations such as the Iranian-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Abbas is saying that the Israelis have no right to defend themselves or go after those who are planning to kill Jews.
[I]t means that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organization, which is backed by Iran, could penetrate the security forces of Abbas's Fatah.
The US State Department, after the summit in Jordan, published a "joint communiqué" that totally ignored the role of the Palestinian terror groups in the latest flare-up of violence. The communiqué did not include a commitment by the Palestinian leadership to rein in the terrorists operating in Palestinian-controlled areas. It did not include a demand to the Palestinian leaders to halt their poisonous incitement against Israel. It did not even call for Abbas to stop financially rewarding terrorists for murdering Jews.
The communiqué instead talked about the need for Israelis and Palestinians to "end unilateral measures for a period of 3-6 months." The only measure it mentions, however, is the building of new housing for Jews. The Biden Administration appears to believe that building a home for a Jew constitutes a greater threat than gangs and terror groups carrying out lethal attacks against Jews.
If the Biden Administration were serious about de-escalating tensions and preventing further violence between Israelis and Palestinians, it could have achieved this goal by demanding that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas take action against the numerous armed gangs roaming Palestinian streets. Pictured: Gunmen from a number of terrorist groups, including the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, Izaddin al-Qassam Brigades, Al-Quds Brigades, and Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, hold what they called a "joint press conference" in Jenin refugee camp on February 25, 2023.
As part of its effort to de-escalate tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, the Biden Administration invited the two parties to a summit in Jordan on February 26 to discuss ways to "prevent further violence."US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the meeting as a "positive step for Israelis and Palestinians." US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said:
"We recognize that this meeting was a starting point and that there is much work to do over the coming weeks and months to build a stable and prosperous future for Israelis and Palestinians alike. Implementation will be critical."If the Biden Administration were serious about de-escalating tensions and preventing further violence between Israelis and Palestinians, it could have achieved this goal by demanding that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas take action against the numerous armed gangs roaming Palestinian streets. The Biden Administration could at least have demanded that Abbas rein in the terror attacks against Jews instead of glorifying terrorists and rewarding them and their families financially as part of his "pay-for-slay" incentive to go murder Jews.
Instead of condemning terrorism, Abbas and senior Palestinian officials, including PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, regularly castigate Israel for launching pre-emptive operations to prevent terror attacks that harm its people. The Biden Administration seems not to understand that by failing to condemn the murder of innocent Israeli civilians, Abbas is signaling to his people that he has no problem with the terrorists so long as they target only Jews and not him.
The Biden Administration also does not seem to understand that Abbas's refusal to take any action against the Palestinian terrorists and armed groups is seen by his own people as a green light to continue targeting Jews -- with knives, bullets, rockets, cars and stones.
Abbas is flagrantly acting in violation of the Oslo Accords Interim Agreement, signed in 1995 between Israel and the PLO. It states:
"Except for the Palestinian Police and Israeli military forces, no other armed forces shall be established or operate in the West Bank and Gaza Strip."Nearly 30 years later, not only do both the West Bank and Gaza Strip have dozens of militias and terror groups; worse, the Gaza Strip -- which was handed by Israel to the Palestinian Authority in 2005 -- is currently controlled by terror organizations such as the Iranian-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
If Abbas fears for his own life should he crack down on the terror groups in the West Bank, he should step aside and let the Israeli security forces do the job.
If, as some argue, the gangs and militias pose a threat to Abbas, he actually stands to benefit from Israeli counter-terrorism operations. By arresting, killing or disarming the terrorists, the Israeli security forces would be doing Abbas and his Palestinian Authority a great favor.
Instead of holding a summit in Jordan or any other country, the Biden Administration needs to make clear to Abbas that he cannot have it both ways. He cannot turn a blind eye to the terror groups operating under his nose, and at the same time condemn Israel for launching counter-terrorism operations to protect Jews and prevent further terrorist attacks. So far, however, it does not seem that the Biden Administration is applying any pressure on Palestinian leaders to end their terrorism.
Abbas sent his team all the way to Jordan to demand, among other things, not an end to terrorism, but instead an end to Israel's efforts to combat terrorism. Abbas does not want Israeli troops to enter Palestinian cities and villages to arrest terrorists who are planning to murder Jews and who are reportedly undermining his own government.
In fact, Abbas is saying that the Israelis have no right to defend themselves or go after those who are planning to kill Jews. Meanwhile, he and his Palestinian Authority are showing no real intention or desire to curb the terrorists or disarm the Palestinian armed groups.
There was no need to hold a summit in the Jordanian Red Sea resort of Aqaba to understand that the latest wave of violence was initiated and carried out by the armed gangs and militias that continue to operate in areas under the control of Abbas and his security forces.
It is these gangs that are responsible for the ongoing wave of terrorism that has claimed the lives of Israeli Jews over the past year. In addition to killing and injuring Jews, the gangs are also responsible for increasing anarchy and lawlessness in parts of the West Bank, especially the Palestinian cities of Nablus and Jenin. The major armed groups that arose in the West Bank under Abbas's watch include: Lions' Den, Battalion of Jenin, Brigades of Nablus, Battalion of Balata, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, Al-Quds Brigades and Izaddin al-Qassam Brigades.
They consist of hundreds of gunmen affiliated with various Palestinian factions, including Abbas's ruling Fatah party, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Some of the groups have been around for years, but intensified their attacks on Israel in recent months. Others are new and began operating in the West Bank only during the past year.
It is worth noting that on the same day as Abbas's representatives were attending the US-sponsored summit in Jordan's Aqaba resort, his militia, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, claimed responsibility for 14 attacks against Israeli military targets in the West Bank.
Even more worrying is that Abbas's Fatah militia has joined forces with Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists in the West Bank. This is dangerous. First, it means that Abbas is no longer on full control of his own loyalists; second, it means that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organization, which is backed by Iran, could penetrate security forces of Abbas's Fatah. The US State Department, after the summit in Jordan, published a "joint communiqué" that totally ignored the role of the Palestinian terror groups in the latest flare-up of violence. The communiqué did not include a commitment by the Palestinian leadership to rein in the terrorists operating in Palestinian-controlled areas. It did not include a demand to the Palestinian leaders to halt their poisonous incitement against Israel. It did not even call for Abbas to stop financially rewarding terrorists for murdering Jews.
The communiqué instead talked about the need for Israelis and Palestinians to "end unilateral measures for a period of 3-6 months." The only measure it mentions, however, is the building of new housing for Jews. The Palestinians are not required to combat terrorism or cease incitement against Israel. They are not required by the communiqué or anything else to get rid of the armed gangs and militias that rule their streets.
The Biden Administration appears to believe that building a home for a Jew constitutes a greater threat than gangs and terror groups carrying out lethal attacks against Jews.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. © 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Why Americans like to see tycoons running for president
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/February 28, 2023
Vivek Ramaswamy announced last week that he is running for the Republican Party’s nomination for president. Ramaswamy has no government experience; instead, he touts his business experience as a key credential. While he is very unlikely to win the nomination, his candidacy highlights the appeal to many voters of a businessperson running for president.
Ramaswamy is the US-born child of Indian immigrants. He earned a fortune by founding biotech company Roivant Sciences. Last year, he started an asset management firm that is designed to compete with companies that promote environmental, social and governance analysis in investment decisions. In recent years, he has become a political commentator, appearing on Fox News and writing two books that oppose liberal “identity politics.”
Ramaswamy lacks name recognition. He is more likely seeking to boost his personal brand and position himself for other political positions than to be seriously hoping to win the 2024 nomination. However, he is not the first businessperson who has sought to use business experience as a springboard to the presidency. Both the Republican and Democratic parties have nominated people with business experience for the presidency in the past, but it is more common within the Republican Party and some third parties. Since the Second World War, the Republican Party has nominated four candidates who had substantial business experience: Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush. The Democratic Party nominated two men with significant business experience: Jimmy Carter (a successful farmer and businessman) and Harry Truman (an unsuccessful businessman). It is far more common for the parties to appoint nominees whose primary career experience is in the military, law or government.
Presidential nominees with business backgrounds often offer government experience as well. Romney, George W. Bush and Carter served as state governors before running for president. George H.W. Bush added extensive diplomatic, political and government experience to his business credentials before pursuing the presidency. Truman served as a judge and a member of Congress before becoming vice president and then president. Except for Trump and Romney, all of these men had also served in the military.
Trump is the only major party nominee, at least since 1945, to jump from business to the White House without first gaining any political or government experience. Many Republicans and some independent voters saw his lack of government experience as an advantage. He was not part of “the swamp,” the disparaging term that many conservative commentators use to refer to Washington. He was an “outsider” who promised to do things differently, which was a huge part of his appeal in 2016.
There are other reasons why a business-minded candidate for president appeals to many Americans. The idea of the American dream remains strong for many voters, who often assume that most wealthy businesspeople earned their wealth because they were smart and hard-working. Many Americans — especially Republicans — share an aversion to government and bureaucracy. “The private sector could do it better than government” is a common sentiment among Republicans. In 2016, many Republicans and independents expressed hope that a businessman like Trump might manage government better than the “politicians.”The tendency to assume that businesses function better than government is deeply ingrained in the American psyche, but it is declining. While many Republicans remain staunchly pro-business, others are increasingly willing to challenge large corporations. For example, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ recent steps to impose more government control over Disney runs directly counter to the common Republican belief that businesses could run things better than government. However, many Republicans praise DeSantis for punishing Disney for the company’s “woke” positions, including its criticism of a Florida law to limit teaching about sexual and gender identity.
Polling shows that Americans still have high levels of respect for self-made businesspeople, small business owners and entrepreneurs, but far less for large corporations and their executives. However, entrepreneurs often struggle, even in business, to transition from startup culture to managing a large, established company. For similar reasons, they might struggle to manage the institution of the federal government.
Furthermore, many businesspeople are not entirely self-made. For example, Trump benefited greatly from an inheritance and his wealthy father’s connections and financing, but this did not hurt his reputation with voters who liked his business experience.
Few men have jumped from business to the White House, so the historical record offers few examples to assess whether businesspeople are likely to make successful presidents. However, history suggests that they are not. Several of the most successful businessmen to have become president are often ranked among the least effective presidents in history, including Warren G. Harding, Herbert Hoover and Carter.
Many Americans — especially Republicans — share an aversion to government and bureaucracy.
Since the Civil War, the presidents who make the top rankings in two different surveys — Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower — had little business experience, except for Truman, who was unsuccessful in business but is frequently ranked among the best presidents.
Wealthy businesspeople such as Ramaswamy have some advantages in running for president. They can appeal to Americans’ pro-business sentiments. They can use their own wealth to fund their campaigns, as Ross Perot did in an independent campaign in 1992. Furthermore, running for president requires a lot of self-confidence — maybe arrogance — and many leading businesspeople have that in spades. However, they must also run against a history that suggests that they will find it difficult to gain a nomination or to run the government.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. Twitter: @KBAresearch

EU must reinvent itself for a third time
Jean Pisani-Ferry/Arab News/February 28, 2023
Tectonic changes in the global system are forcing all countries to redefine their strategic outlooks and growth models. But while changes are affecting every country, the EU faces a far more serious challenge that could put its very existence at risk.
This is not the first time that the EU has found itself at a crossroads. Global crises tend to throw the bloc into an existential spiral that calls into question its priorities, structure and purpose. Whether Europe remains a major global player depends on its response to an unprecedented confluence of emergencies. The most prominent is undoubtedly the war in Ukraine, which has provided a stark reminder that the EU must develop its own security identity to defend its borders. But other issues are equally pressing. The escalating rivalry between the US and China is redrawing the map of global power. As the world increasingly divides into competing blocs, Europe must decide whether to align itself entirely with the US or retain a modicum of policy autonomy.
On climate change, the EU positioned itself as a global agenda-setter after the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2020. But with the US fully recommitted to the climate fight and investing heavily in clean energy subsidies, Europe must redefine its stance. Will the bloc develop its own version of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act and embark on a subsidy race with the US and China? Or will it build on its own DNA and respond with trade and competition instruments? European leaders’ recent statements suggest they are leaning toward the former. Either way, they must decide in a timely fashion.
The EU can no longer rely on rules-setting to pursue its strategic goals — it needs a new purpose and identity.
Europe has reinvented itself twice before, and this inflection point is significant enough to call for a third reinvention. In the mid-1980s, as stagnant growth and high unemployment led economists and political scientists (particularly on the American right) to coin the term “eurosclerosis,” then-European Commission President Jacques Delors began drawing up plans for an economically integrated continent. Those plans became the single market program and laid the groundwork for the creation of the eurozone.
Globalization proved to be another turning point. In the early 2000s, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown questioned the wisdom of pursuing European integration when the whole world was already rapidly integrating. As Russia and China had entered the global economy and joined the International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization, regional integration seemed passe.
The EU’s response to Brown’s challenge was to reinvent itself as a shaper of global standards. Over the past 20 years, European policymakers have taken a leading role in designing the rules-based international order, exporting regulatory standards for accounting, safety, privacy and consumer protection. As The Wall Street Journal put it, the EU became “the world’s regulator,” using its rulemaking as a form of soft power.
But this type of soft power works only in a world governed by rules. Harvard’s Joseph S. Nye Jr., who introduced the concept in the late 1980s, explained that the difference between hard and soft power is that the former is fungible — meaning transferable from sphere to sphere — whereas the latter is not. In other words, military power can help countries gain economic power and vice versa, but regulatory strength does not translate into military or even economic clout.
That is why the EU must reinvent itself again. In a world where autocrats and their supporters increasingly flout the rules that govern the Western-dominated liberal order, the EU can no longer rely on rules-setting to pursue its strategic goals. It needs a new purpose and identity. To this end, Marco Buti and Marcello Messori have come up with a framework that attempts to reconcile the EU’s domestic and foreign policy agendas. The EU, they argue, should build on its comparative advantages and focus on delivering European public goods.
This concept makes a lot of sense. It is broad enough to apply to defense, security, energy and climate action. It is also compatible with the EU’s subsidiarity principle, which holds that decisions should be made by member states whenever sufficient to reach common objectives. It would enable policymakers to switch from centralized tools to local initiatives when needed and could serve as a practical yardstick for deciding what counts as excessive centralization of power. Moreover, citizens could easily understand why some actions fall within the EU’s jurisdiction, while others remain the responsibility of member states.
But even if it adopted this framework, the EU would still have some difficult choices to make. The reason why the EU lacks a common defense policy is not that member states fail to see that they would be better off acting together; it is that they do not trust each other and distrust the EU’s institutions even more. Similarly, European countries recognize that a common energy policy is in their collective interest; the reason they have failed to agree on one is that their national priorities differ widely.
The EU’s recent spree of emergency borrowing to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic offers important insights into the current state of European integration. Instead of being directed toward common initiatives, most of the money that was raised through the emergency program was transferred to individual member states.
On balance, the subsidiarity principle would seem to favor endorsing the European public goods approach. But European countries must overcome individual reservations and learn to work together. The road toward a new European model may be mapped out, but it will be long and difficult.
*Jean Pisani-Ferry, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel and a senior non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, holds the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa chair at the European University Institute. ©Project Syndicate

Aqaba meeting was much ado about nothing
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/February 28, 2023
Sunday’s Aqaba security meeting, which brought together Palestinian and Israeli officials in a rare publicized event, attracted much media attention — but not all of it positive. The one-day event, hosted by Jordan with the participation of senior US and Egyptian officials, was aimed at de-escalating tensions in the occupied West Bank. A number of confidence-building steps were agreed to contain the cycle of violence that has been swelling since the beginning of the year.
At the end of the meeting, a joint communique was issued citing agreement on a number of issues, including ending “unilateral measures for a period of three to six months. This includes an Israeli commitment to stop discussion of any new settlement units for four months and to stop authorization of any outposts for six months.”Furthermore, the two sides (Palestinian and Israeli) affirmed their commitment to all previous agreements between them and to work toward a just and lasting peace. They reaffirmed the necessity of committing to de-escalation on the ground and to preventing further violence, the joint communique added. According to inside sources, two committees, one civilian and one security-related, are to be formed, meaning that the much-criticized security coordination between the Palestinian Authority and Israel is ongoing.
For the host country, which invested huge political capital to bring the two sides together with the backing of the US and Egypt, the five parties recognized “the importance of upholding unchanged the historic status quo at the holy sites in Jerusalem in word and practice,” and emphasized in this regard “the Hashemite custodianship/special role of Jordan.”
All parties agreed to convene again in Sharm El-Sheikh in March to achieve the goals listed above, apparently ahead of the onset of the holy month of Ramadan.
The outcome has been described as a diplomatic triumph and as a breakthrough. But no sooner than the communique was released, the hawkish partners of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including the head of the Israeli delegation to the meeting, began to disavow it.
According to Israeli media, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich claimed he had no knowledge of the context of the Aqaba discussions. He asserted: “There will not be a freeze on construction and development in the settlement, not even for one day.” Joining him was National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who tweeted that “what was in Jordan (if it was), will stay in Jordan.” Shortly after, Netanyahu himself joined the chorus, declaring that there would not be a construction freeze over the Green Line. He said: “The building and authorization in (the West Bank) will continue according to the original planning and building schedule, with no change. There is not and will not be any freeze.”
Netanyahu’s coalition will not allow its leader to do any of the things that the parties agreed to in Aqaba.
The far-right government had earlier in February approved the building of 9,000 new units in illegal settlements in the West Bank, while “authorizing” nine new settlements. This Israeli decision had triggered a diplomatic crisis, forcing a number of Arab countries to push for a UN Security Council resolution condemning the move. But under US pressure, President Mahmoud Abbas caved and the council ultimately adopted a coy, nonbinding presidential statement.
The Aqaba agreement did not address the recently approved new permits and Israeli officials stated that the committee responsible for authorizing new settlement expansion would not meet for at least three months.
While Jordan, Egypt and the US were busy congratulating themselves on the Aqaba feat, violence broke out in the West Bank. Jewish settlers went on the rampage in the Palestinian village of Huwara, torching houses, shops, cars, trees and everything they could get their hands on. They were avenging the nearby killing of two settlers hours earlier by a Palestinian gunman. For hours, Palestinian medics and civil defense teams were prevented from entering the town by Israeli soldiers. The Jewish mob killed one Palestinian and injured more than 100. This was the reality on the ground that the Aqaba meeting was hoping to prevent. The bloody events of that day certainly sealed the fate of the agreement.
Netanyahu’s coalition — the most extreme, both ideologically and religiously, in Israel’s history — will not allow its leader to do any of the things that the parties agreed to in Aqaba. This is something that the Biden administration, as well as Jordan and Egypt, must understand by now. In just two months, Israel has killed more than 60 Palestinians, demolished tens of homes and buildings, and looked the other way as Jewish settlers attacked Palestinians and confiscated more land.
The real objective of the Aqaba meeting, at least the primary one, was to save the now-shaky PA and its aging leader Abbas. Increasing militancy among West Bank Palestinians plays into the hands of Hamas, which is preparing to fill the vacuum created by an inept PA that is unpopular and on the verge of bankruptcy. Netanyahu’s far-right partners do not see a difference between the two. There is no binary choice here. Palestinians are the enemy and Smotrich and others have threatened to dispatch tanks and helicopters to Palestinian towns. Others openly called for the burning of Huwara to the ground.
The Aqaba agreement was stillborn and the events preceding Ramadan are a harbinger of how bad things will get during the holy month. The settlers, led by Ben-Gvir and others, have declared war on the Palestinians and Netanyahu, who is only looking out for himself, can do nothing to stop it.
• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Twitter: @plato010

Yemen Peace Accord Appears Increasingly Possible
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/Feb 28, 2023
A deal would leave the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in control but allow the Saudis to disengage from a costly and intractable war, potentially opening up further diplomatic possibilities.
The past week has seen new signs of an emerging compromise in Yemen. On February 26, the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hodeida received its first general cargo ship since 2016 after securing clearance from the UN. Two days earlier, Rashad al-Alimi—the Saudi-based head of Yemen’s notionally governing Presidential Leadership Council—praised the latest talks between Riyadh and the Houthis in a prominent Saudi-owned newspaper.
The direct talks to which he was referring have been facilitated by Oman, in parallel with the longstanding UN-led effort to replace the current informal ceasefire (which has lasted since April 2022) with a formal truce. If the Omani track proves fruitful, inclusive political negotiations could eventually follow, though officials involved in the talks are reluctant to discuss them for fear of jeopardizing emergent areas of agreement.
According to a February 25 report in the Economist, the Saudis “are negotiating a deal that would allow them to withdraw,” and this accord could be signed in the “coming months—perhaps in the holy city of Mecca around the Ramadan holiday,” which starts in late March. Notably, however, the deal “would not remove the Houthis from power, nor end Yemen’s messy internal civil war.” What Riyadh is apparently looking for “are assurances that the Houthis will stop lobbing drones and missiles across the border.”
In reality, any imminent agreement would be an admission of defeat for Saudi Arabia, which intervened militarily in 2015 after Houthi tribesmen from northwest Yemen expanded their control from the capital Sanaa to Aden. At the time, newly appointed defense minister Muhammad bin Salman—who has since become the kingdom’s crown prince and de facto leader—made the call to launch this intervention as a coalition campaign called Operation Decisive Storm. Yet it quickly proved less than decisive, and the prince curtailed his high-profile visits to forward bomber bases amid reports of Saudi pilots causing civilian casualties and the kingdom losing control of a long stretch of the southern border. At its peak, the fighting was costing Riyadh an estimated $1 billion per week.
In 2019, key coalition member the United Arab Emirates reduced its major military operations in Yemen after advancing as far as Hodeida but failing to wrest control of the port from Houthi forces. The UAE remained committed to combating local elements of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Yet it also arguably complicated international peacemaking efforts by supporting the Southern Transitional Council, a secessionist movement based in Aden. Indeed, Abu Dhabi’s current position on a potential Saudi-Houthi deal is probably similar to that of the STC, which rebutted Alimi’s recent praise of the process by stating that he “showed a lack of seriousness.”
From the U.S. government’s perspective, such a deal would be a positive step toward alleviating Yemen’s ever-present humanitarian crisis, which affects an estimated two-thirds of the country’s 28 million residents. It would also help improve Washington’s relations with Riyadh, whose bombing campaign initially received U.S. logistical support but soon faced major opposition in Congress.
To be sure, leaving Yemen in the hands of the Houthis—whose official slogan prominently features the phrases “Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews”—would be a painful outcome in other strategic respects. Most important, Washington needs to assess how a deal might affect its efforts to limit Iran’s hostile influence, especially since the missiles Tehran supplies to the Houthis may soon have the range to hit southern Israel. Iranian leaders initially saw the Houthi offensive as simply another side issue worth backing, but the group has since grown into a more potent tool for threatening the Persian Gulf states, Israel, and the vital Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, among other objectives. That said, even an imperfect agreement in Yemen may be helpful in the incremental diplomatic path toward peace, and could include some reduction in Houthi links with Iran to boot.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute.

Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy
Michael Singh/The Washington Institute/Feb 28, 2023
The regime's latest step on uranium enrichment should compel the United States and its partners to snap back sanctions, bolster military deterrence, and plan for potential crisis scenarios.
Recently, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency discovered that Iran had enriched uranium to a level just shy of what is generally considered weapons grade. Like many findings before it, this revelation underscores the need for a new U.S. and European policy toward Iran. The two most important and immediate steps in that process are clear by this point: Washington and its partners need to move on from any remaining plans they might have to resurrect the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), namely by activating that accord’s “snapback” mechanism; and governments must heighten their efforts to deter Iran through credible threats of military force.
In addition, the United States needs to coordinate closely with international partners on how they would jointly respond to contingencies that are looking increasingly likely, such as an Iranian nuclear breakout or withdrawal from the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). With Washington perceived as reluctant to act militarily in the Middle East, Israel perceived as lacking the capability to act, and much of the world distracted by the Ukraine war, Tehran may feel that it has a short window in which to develop nuclear weapons, lending the issue renewed urgency.
Shifting Goals and a Dangerous Status Quo
The Biden administration entered office hoping to reenter the JCPOA, from which President Trump withdrew in May 2018. This hope has proven futile, however, for the simple reason that the parties to the original agreement value it less today than ever.
For Tehran, the JCPOA achieved three goals: delivering relief from economic sanctions; conferring international legitimacy on Iran’s theretofore illicit nuclear activities and permitting the regime to retain nearly its entire nuclear program; and implicitly reassuring Tehran that it would be safe from military attack even as it worked to perfect other elements of a potential nuclear weapons program (e.g., advanced centrifuges and more capable missiles).
None of these issues is as relevant today. Iranian officials do not value sanctions relief as highly as they did in 2015 due to a combination of lax enforcement in recent years, increased economic ties with Russia and China, an abiding expectation that a future U.S. president would reimpose any sanctions that are lifted, and an apparent belief that former president Hassan Rouhani oversold the value of relief in 2015. Moreover, the legitimacy of Iran’s civil nuclear program has been widely accepted, and the lack of any international or regional response to its steady progress may have convinced regime officials that the military risk of moving toward weaponization is not as great as they once feared. As a result, Tehran has likely calculated that the benefits of reentering the JCPOA pale in comparison to the costs, which would be significantly higher today than in 2015.
Meanwhile, officials in the United States and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) continue to regard the JCPOA as the most effective and least costly means of curtailing Iran’s nuclear activities. In their view, the plausible alternatives are worse: a different deal may be better than the JCPOA but would be time-consuming to negotiate, especially since Iran’s current leadership has little international diplomatic experience; a military attack could be quite costly and may buy just a few years’ respite before Iran reconstitutes the program; and sanctions are perceived as ineffectual if divorced from diplomacy.
Despite their continued belief in the JCPOA’s value, however, these governments have little enthusiasm for reentering it. For some officials, this sentiment stems from the realization that the agreement’s nonproliferation benefits have declined over time due to the lapsing of key restrictions and Iran’s accelerated accumulation of nuclear know-how, including from activities that violated the deal. For others, the old formula of “comprehensive sanctions relief strictly in exchange for nuclear restraint” is now politically unpalatable given Tehran’s crackdown on protesters at home and provision of drones (and, potentially, missiles) to Russia for use in Ukraine.
The result is that Western nuclear policy toward Iran has stagnated even as the regime’s program advanced dangerously. The United States and E3 fear that taking significant steps in a different direction could prompt Tehran to take rash action, so they have largely put the matter on the back burner apart from incrementally bolstering sanctions. For its part, Iran has been content to maintain the fiction that nuclear talks continue, as it has little incentive to walk away and potentially force the West to devise a new policy.
In the background, however, the regime has been steadily expanding its nuclear activities. Viewed in combination with its seeming uninterest in consummating the past two years of talks, the steps Tehran has taken look far more like preparations to quickly build nuclear weapons when deemed necessary than an effort to build diplomatic bargaining leverage. Among other moves, Iran has:
expanded its stockpile of enriched uranium
put more centrifuges in operation
enhanced the efficiency of its centrifuges
increased the number of enrichment sites
experimented with enriching to high levels in a single step rather than multiple steps
transferred high-enriched uranium to a site in Isfahan capable of turning uranium hexafluoride gas into metal (a key step in weapons manufacture)
obstructed nuclear inspectors
Each of these steps underscores the growing belief that Tehran intends to produce nuclear weapons.
It is against this backdrop that the news arrived of Iran apparently enriching uranium to 84 percent, just short of the 90 percent often considered weapons grade (for more on these percentages and other technical matters, see The Washington Institute’s Nuclear Glossary). Iranian officials have sought to portray this reported enrichment as unintentional, but their explanations have met with skepticism from experts. More likely, enrichment to 84 percent is serving two purposes for the regime: as a trial run to test its technical capabilities for a breakout, and as a trial balloon to determine how the United States, Europe, and Israel will react to it crossing the weapons-grade threshold. The latter purpose is likely far more useful to Tehran, which will undoubtedly be watching to determine whether these states are ready to act or looking for excuses to avoid doing so, and whether their response is coordinated or marked by infighting. This learning is vital for Iran. If it chooses to produce a nuclear weapon, it will run the risk of Western or Israeli military attack, so understanding how to minimize that risk—and, by extension, cross the yawning chasm between would-be nuclear power and actual nuclear-armed state—is a strategic must.
In Search of a Plan B
Whatever its intentions, Tehran may have unwittingly done the United States and its partners a favor with its latest move: dispelling the illusory notion that the nuclear issue could be “parked.” The steady expansion of its nuclear activities and the lapsing of JCPOA restrictions mean that the danger of continuing the stalemate has been mounting by the day.
In some quarters, the resultant urgency will prompt calls for a new diplomatic approach. One idea gaining currency among analysts is a so-called “less for less” deal, which could take numerous forms. The most basic version would be an agreement to desist from further escalation—Iran would stop expanding its nuclear activities, and the United States and EU would stop imposing sanctions. Yet Tehran has little reason to accept such an arrangement given that the costs of additional sanctions would be relatively modest relative to the sanctions reimposed when Washington withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. Having weathered the latter measures for five years and made significant nuclear progress without further significant cost, the regime surely feels that it has the upper hand in the current escalation dynamic.
Even if Tehran were willing to consider a slimmed-down deal, it would surely demand the lifting of sanctions that have the greatest impact on its economic fortunes, namely, those that prevent it from selling oil and repatriating the revenues from such sales—an outcome that would diminish Western leverage in any future talks. In other words, Iran may be prepared to give “less,” but it would surely expect “more” in return, unless it is convinced that the consequences of standing down are dire, as discussed below.
For their part, American and European policymakers would face two risks: first, that their diminished demands would become the new floor for Iran’s nuclear program, permanently eliminating the possibility of returning to more stringent limits; second, that the political costs of reentering the JCPOA could apply even more forcefully to approving a slimmed-down agreement. The JCPOA failed to garner majority congressional support in 2015, and any deal concluded within that framework would likely fare even worse today.
In short, a slimmer agreement might buy temporary reprieve from crisis, but at the price of economically strengthening the Iranian regime and permanently worsening the Middle East proliferation landscape. Such an approach might make sense if it were part of a larger plan to weaken the regime or shift its strategy. No such plan is evident, however, and even if it were, policymakers would be better off focusing on it rather than diplomatic delay tactics.
Next Steps
The first priority for Washington and its partners should be to deter Iran from producing nuclear weapons. The regime must be disabused of any notion that it now has a window of impunity for making such a decision. To this end, the United States and the E3 should take the following steps, in conjunction with slower-moving policy tools such as strengthening and enforcing economic sanctions and supporting the Iranian opposition.
Exercise the JCPOA’s snapback provision. The 2015 agreement has a mechanism permitting international sanctions to “snap back” in the event that one party believes another is violating the agreement. By itself, this mechanism would not significantly increase the economic pressure on Iran, since U.S. unilateral sanctions are far more powerful than the relevant UN-imposed measures. Yet snapback would send a powerful diplomatic message that the United States and E3 are unified, and that their joint focus has shifted from resurrecting the JCPOA to a new policy of deterrence. By restoring UN sanctions and invalidating the JCPOA’s past and future sunset provisions, this approach would also strengthen the basis for recruiting other states to magnify the economic pressure on Iran.
E3 officials worry that snapback would prompt Tehran to take rash action—for example, enriching to 90 percent or withdrawing from the NPT. This possibility cannot be dismissed, as the regime generally looks for ways to retaliate against Western pressure. Yet stopping short of snapback has not prevented Tehran from disregarding the JCPOA’s limits for the past four years, so there is little reason to believe that eschewing it now will be more persuasive. And enriching to 90 percent would open up even more retaliatory steps for Tehran down the road, such as threatening to weaponize its program or expel European diplomats. In contrast, exercising snapback now would be an unmistakable signal that the United States and E3 are not content with the status quo and are ready to entertain risk in order to stop Iran’s nuclear progress.
Strengthen the military threat. The Biden administration recently conducted the Juniper Oak 23 exercise with Israel in an effort to enhance the credibility of their joint military threat against Iran. While this was a welcome step in the right direction, it may have limited utility given the widespread perception that the Biden administration would be loath to participate in a joint attack on Iran.
Indeed, the administration has largely limited itself to issuing vague threats against Tehran and rarely following up on them, so the bar for establishing military credibility is likely quite high. The clearest way to do so would be to strike targets inside Iran—for example, drone factories or sites associated with the regime’s support for Iraqi militias. Yet such an approach carries a risk of escalation and would require legal justification, since the president’s ability to order military action is not unfettered in the U.S. system.
Until such action is deemed necessary and appropriately authorized, Washington should convey explicit warnings of its intent to attack Iran’s nuclear sites if the regime moves to produce nuclear weapons. At the same time, the United States should provide Israel with the materiel it requires to act independently against Iran—for example, tanker aircraft for aerial refueling. Any risks associated with this approach could be mitigated through advance U.S.-Israel agreement on the triggers for attacking nuclear sites with said equipment.
Engage in scenario planning with partners. The discovery that Iran has apparently enriched to 84 percent underscores the need for the United States, Europe, and key regional partners such as Israel and the Gulf states to engage in joint contingency planning with the aim of enabling rapid, coordinated responses to future nuclear steps. Questions that such planning exercises should address include:
What are the red lines for action? Iran enriching uranium to weapons-grade (i.e., 90 percent) is one clear line, but others are worth considering as well. For example, Iran could further reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency or submit notification of its intent to withdraw from the NPT, as North Korea did in the 1990s. Given the likely short timelines for any joint response, partners must agree in advance on what would trigger this response.
Will there be sufficient notice? The silver lining of Iran’s latest enrichment advance is that it gives Western intelligence agencies a chance to stress-test their capabilities for determining if red lines have been crossed, and whether there is sufficient time to prepare the appropriate response. Likewise, policymakers now have an opportunity to gauge the time between Iran making a dangerous advance and the West learning about and verifying it. If any of these timelines are too long, then Washington and its partners must strengthen their ability to detect a breakout or change their red lines.
How will partners respond to a breakout? If the United States, Europe, or Israel contemplates a military response to a verified breakout—a near certainty given the threat posed by an Iranian nuclear weapon—the nature and scope of that response should be coordinated in advance, since there will be insufficient time for planning and coalition-building once Tehran breaks out. An important part of this planning process is determining what defensive measures would be required in the Middle East, and what diplomatic and economic steps would be taken in conjunction with any military action.
*Michael Singh is the managing director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.