Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 23-24/2023
Saudi-Iran thaw improves haj services for Iranian pilgrims
MECCA, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Iranian haj pilgrims travelled to evening prayers in Mecca's Grand Mosque in a brand new bus this week, as reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran led to improved services for the annual pilgrimage to Islam's holiest sites. Sayid Mahdi, who will be in charge of around 2,800 Iranian pilgrims that will perform haj next week, said Saudi Arabia has been more cooperative in finding hotels for Iranians this year. "We thank God that this is improving," he said. "God willing we can offer better services to the pilgrims of the holy mosque." Saudi Arabia is preparing to host some 2.6 million pilgrims next week for the 2023 haj season after removing all COVID-19 restrictions for the first time since 2019. Iran's official media said 87,550 of those will be Iranians. Regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed in March, in a deal brokered by China, to end a diplomatic rift following years of hostility that had fuelled regional conflicts and made it sometimes difficult for Iranians to perform haj and umrah. Umrah is another form of pilgrimage to Mecca which - unlike haj - can be carried out at any time of the year. Iran repeatedly criticised how Saudi Arabia runs the pilgrimage and boycotted the annual gathering in 2016 after hundreds of people, many of them Iranians, died in a crush in the previous year. The kingdom said Iran sought to politicize haj. Iranian pilgrim Mohammed Hossaini landed in Mecca on Thursday, five days before the annual gathering starts, seeking to perform both umrah and haj in one trip. "I am very happy that relations between the governments of Iran and Saudi Arabia are improving... This will improve Muslims' travel to the house of God,” Hossaini said in his hotel lobby in Mecca, wearing the pilgrims' white robes that symbolise purity and equality before God. Haj, a once-in-a-lifetime duty for every able-bodied Muslim who can afford it, is a major source of income for Saudi Arabia from worshippers' lodging, transport, fees and gifts. Balloons and haj slogans in Farsi decorated the Al-Mozn hotel where Hossaini, and other pilgrims from the Iranian city of Shiraz, stayed in Mecca. "Haj will be a Koranic evolution, Islamic convergence and defence of Al-Aqsa Mosque," read one of the signs, referring to Islam's third holiest shrine in Jerusalem. "I witnessed a very good Haj this year. We have come here in complete peace," said Mojtabi Laliany, another Iranian pilgrim from Mahdi's campaign.

Israeli settlers build new outposts amid rising West Bank violence
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Israel's national security minister on Friday urged tougher military action against Palestinian militants in the occupied West Bank and urged Israeli settlers to expand their presence there despite surging violence and international calls for a halt to new construction. Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, was speaking at a settler outpost - one of several the Israeli military said had been discovered across the West Bank since Thursday but were not authorised. They would be dismantled "according to enforcement priorities", a military statement said without elaborating. The developments followed some of the worst violence in years involving Palestinians, Israeli forces and Jewish settlers in the West Bank in the past week. "We have your backs, run to the hilltops, settle the land," National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said during his visit.
The United Nations human rights chief in Geneva on Friday the situation "risks spiralling out of control" and he urged Israel to "bring its actions into line with international law". But Ben-Gvir called for tougher action. "We must launch a military operation, bring down buildings, eliminate terrorists, not one or two but dozens and hundreds and if necessary thousands," he said. "Because, ultimately, it is the only way we will seize this place, strengthen our hold and restore security to the residents."Most countries deem Jewish settlements built on land Israel seized in the 1967 Middle East war as illegal. Their expansion has for decades been among the most contentious issues between Israel, the international community and Palestinians, who say they undermine a viable future Palestinian state. The Yedioth Ahronoth daily reported at least seven new outposts were built in the West Bank since Thursday with the government's knowledge. The new construction follows an announcement on Wednesday by Netanyahu of plans for 1,000 new homes in the Eli settlement in response to a Palestinian gun attack in the area the previous day that killed four Israelis.According to the Israeli watchdog Peace Now, Eli was built in 1984 and some 4,600 settlers reside there. Palestinians in the area say they were dispossessed of their land to allow for the settlement's expansion over the years. Tuesday's shooting came a day after an Israeli raid on Jenin that led to an hours-long gunbattle between Palestinian fighters and Israeli forces backed by helicopter gunships. Seven Palestinians were killed and more than 90 wounded and seven Israeli personnel were also wounded. In retaliation for that attack, hundreds of Israeli settlers rampaged through Palestinian towns in the West Bank such as Turmus Ayya, killing a 25-year-old Palestinian father and setting dozens of houses and cars ablaze. Military spokesman Daniel Hagari said police arrested three people on suspicion of involvement in the rampages. The army had not been adequately prepared for the outburst of settler violence, he said. "What happened in Turmus Ayya, the nationalist crime, is a severe event that we should prevent. We failed to prevent it," he told a news briefing. "We will do our lesson-learning and investigate ourselves as well in order to prevent this kind of event from occurring," he said. The Palestinian foreign ministry condemned Israel's new settlement projects, which it said were part of its plan to de facto annex the West Bank.Israel is "permanently closing the door to any opportunity for a political solution to the conflict," it said. Israel cites biblical, historical and political ties to the West Bank as its justification for claiming the land, and says construction there follows a building permit process. Since taking office in January, Netanyahu's religious-nationalist coalition has approved the promotion of more than 7,000 new housing units, most deep in the West Bank. It also amended a law to clear the way for settlers to return to four settlements that had previously been evacuated. According to the United Nations, some 700,000 settlers live in 279 settlements across the West Bank and East Jerusalem, up from 520,000 in 2012.

West Bank village between settlers and shooting attacks
Agence France Presse/Fri, June 23, 2023
A group of Palestinian children helped sweep up rubble Thursday as their village in the occupied West Bank reeled from a near two-hour rampage carried out by Jewish settlers in revenge for a deadly shooting by two villagers. Orif was thrown into the spotlight of rising violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after Muhanad Shehadeh, 26, and his friend Khaled Sabah, 24, attacked a petrol station outside a nearby Jewish settlement on Tuesday, killing four Israelis and seriously wounding four more. One of the gunmen was killed by a passerby moments after the shooting, while the other was shot dead by Israeli forces not long afterwards. Palestinian militant group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, said the two men were members and carried out the attack in revenge for an Israeli raid on Jenin refugee camp on Monday that killed six Palestinians. On Wednesday night, hundreds of Israelis from a nearby settlement entered Orif, throwing stones and setting fire to buildings and trees. A similar attack earlier that day on the village of Turmus Ayya resulted in the death of a Palestinian, shot in ensuing clashes with Israeli forces. "They came from the top of the village", said local businessman Essam Safadi, 46. "The army stood and did nothing," he told AFP as he reviewed footage of the near two-hour rampage from dozens of security cameras placed around his house. In a statement to AFP, the army said that troops had "acted to diffuse the incident" in Orif with "riot dispersal means,".
'Pressure generates explosion' -
On the hill above the village sits the Jewish settlement of Yitzhar, where Palestinians say Wednesday night's rioters came from. In the footage, reviewed by AFP, dozens of masked settlers can be seen setting fire to a school and trees, and throwing stones at homes in the village. A German official confirmed to AFP that a school funded by Berlin in the village was damaged. The crowd was soon confronted by a smaller group of villagers, who threw rocks and fireworks. A timestamp on the video shows the attack started shortly after 8:00 pm (1700 GMT). At 8:30 pm, the footage captures two men taking a dog into a mosque at the top of the village and exiting with several copies of the Koran which they proceeded to tear up and throw to the ground. The army told AFP that a report of "Israeli citizens and a dog vandalizing property from a mosque" had been "transferred to the responsibility of Israel police".
Orif lies in the vast swathe of the West Bank where Israel retained responsibility for security under the Oslo accords of the 1990s and the Palestinian Authority holds little sway. A Palestinian security official told AFP that they had informed the Israeli army such an attack was likely to happen. In Orif, villagers have rallied around the families of the two shooters. They say the deadly attack was the natural outcome of young lives spent entirely under occupation. "We knew the news through the news bulletin," Khaled Sabah's uncle Qaid Sabah told AFP, as he recalled finding out what his nephew had done. He said his nephew had had frequent run-ins with the settlers over the year. Four years ago, Khaled was left with permanent damage to his foot following "confrontations" with settlers, the uncle said. "In the end, this pressure generates the explosion. And you (Israel) are primarily responsible for this situation," he said.
The shooter's father Faleh Sabah, 65, will likely soon lose his home. The army entered the village to take measurements of the building on Wednesday -- a precursor to its demolition. Israel routinely demolishes the homes of Palestinians it accuses of deadly attacks on Israelis, arguing that such measures act as a deterrent. Human rights activists say the policy amounts to collective punishment, as it can render non-combatants, including children, homeless.

Morocco delays 'Abraham Accords' summit until after summer
RABAT (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Morocco will delay a summit it is hosting between Israel and Arab states that have signed "Abraham Accords" peace pacts, its foreign minister said on Friday, amid rising strife in the West Bank. The decision to postpone the summit until after the summer comes after Israel decided to expand settlement-building in the occupied West Bank and after an Israeli raid on Jenin in which five people were killed. Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita said the decision was partly over scheduling but also because of what he called "provocative and unilateral acts" that "undermine peace efforts in the region". He condemned the Israeli army raid on Jenin, in the West Bank, and rejected Israel's decision to expand settlements in occupied territory where Palestinians want to establish an independent state. Israel said its operation in Jenin was intended to arrest two Palestinians suspected of attacks. It announced the decision to build 1,000 new houses in the Eli settlement in the West Bank in response to a Palestinian gun attack nearby. Morocco is one of four Arab states - alongside the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan - that moved closer to Israel following a U.S.-driven diplomatic initiative in 2020. Rabat boosted ties with Israel and agreed to move towards full diplomatic relations in return for U.S. recognition of its sovereignty over the territory of Western Sahara, which is claimed by an Algeria-backed independence movement. Morocco has said it wants to see the creation of a Palestinian state with its capital in east Jerusalem as part of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The planned summit follows one held last year in Israel's Negev desert between Israel, Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE, United States and Egypt, which agreed to peace with Israel in 1979. Israel had previously announced that Morocco would host the forum in March, with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen saying other countries that do not have ties with Israel might also attend. An aide to Cohen had earlier this month blamed the delays on the difficulty of coordinating the schedule. Israel's Foreign Ministry declined to comment on Friday. Yair Lapid, a former Israeli foreign and prime minister who was an architect of the forum when in power last year, said that "failure follows failure" with the current Israeli government. "This is not how foreign policy should be conducted," said Lapid, who now heads the opposition to Prime Minister Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist-religious government.

UN aid enters Syrian rebel enclave from government territory in first such crossing since earthquake
IDLIB, Syria (AP)/Fri, June 23, 2023
A convoy carrying U.N. aid entered Syria’s last rebel-held enclave from government-held territory on Friday, the first such shipment to cross battle lines since February’s deadly 7.8-magnitude earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria. The convoy with humanitarian supplies crossed from a government-controlled area in the province of Aleppo, and entered Idlib, according to the U.N. office for humanitarian affairs or OCHA. The last aid shipment to cross the front lines in the conflict was in early January. After the February earthquake that struck Turkey and northern Syria, causing widespread destruction, convoys have been prevented from entering the province of Idlib from government-held areas by the al-Qaida-affiliated militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which dominates the area. The group has sought to distance itself from al-Qaida in recent years. After the Feb. 6 quake, an administrative arm of the group accused the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad of trying “to benefit from the aid intended for victims of the earthquake.”In the wake of the earthquake, aid deliveries to affected areas became a political battleground, with Assad's opponents and many aid organizations pushing for the United Nations to send more aid shipments to northern Syria by way of Turkey. Meanwhile, the Syrian government and its ally, Russia, pushed for the aid to be sent via Damascus. The U.N. is usually only allowed to deliver aid through a single border crossing from Turkey, at Bab al-Hawa, at the insistence of Russia, which is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. After the earthquake, Assad agreed to the opening of two new crossing points from Turkey, at Bab al-Salam and al-Raee on a temporary basis. In practice however, most of the cross-border aid continued to come via Bab al-Hawa. The mandate for cross-border aid deliveries at Bab al-Hawa is up for renewal next month at the Security Council. Representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have declined to comment on the reasons for their change in stance on aid coming from government-held areas. But Sam Heller, a fellow with the New York-based Century International research center, said the group’s decision may be related to next month's vote at the U.N. He said Russia’s U.N. envoy has complained about the lack of cross-line deliveries, and allowing one now may have been intended to encourage Moscow to approve the continuation of cross-border aid. "The cross-border mandate will only be renewed with Russia’s consent," he said. Syria Response Coordination Group, a humanitarian organization working in northwest Syria, said in a statement that “humanitarian convoys have been at the mercy of international political tensions” and called for international organizations to find ways to increase the amount of assistance reaching the area.

Top Biden aide to Denmark for international talks on Ukraine
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
U.S. President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is traveling to Denmark this weekend to participate in a meeting about Ukraine which may include some countries that have refused to condemn the invasion. The talks in Copenhagen are being organized by Ukraine "to discuss basic principles of peace," a U.S. official said on Friday. India, South Africa and Brazil were among the countries invited but it was unclear yet whether they were attending, a source familiar with the matter said. All three have not condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Western countries that back the war have also been invited. The U.S. official said Ukraine invited a variety of countries and Denmark agreed to host the meeting in Copenhagen. It will include national security advisers and political directors from various countries invited. The session is considered an informal gathering and not a formal summit. No specific outcomes and joint communiques are expected to come out of it. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, currently on a state visit to Washington, discussed the Ukraine war with U.S. President Joe Biden in talks on Thursday. His country has been reliant on Russian oil. A joint statement from the two leaders said Biden and Modi expressed their "deep concern over the conflict in Ukraine and mourned its terrible and tragic humanitarian consequences." "Both countries further pledge to render continuing humanitarian assistance to the people of Ukraine. They called for respect for international law, principles of the UN charter, and territorial integrity and sovereignty. Both countries concurred on the importance of post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine," their statement said.

US, UK, France demand UN investigate Russia's sanctions-busting use of Iranian drones in Ukraine
UNITED NATIONS (AP)/Fri, June 23, 2023
The United States, Britain and France demanded Friday that the United Nations urgently investigate Russia’s reported use of hundreds of Iranian-provided drones in the war in Ukraine, which would violate U.N. sanctions. But it’s unclear whether the U.N. will do so in the face of strong opposition from Russia.
Russia denies using the Iranian drones, despite widespread evidence that they have been used to attack Ukrainian cities. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield noted that the U.S. this month released further information documenting Iran's provision of hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles, known as UAVs or drones, as well as equipment that can be used in their production. Ukraine and the U.K. also submitted evidence to the United Nations of Iranian drones recovered by the Ukrainian military, she said. “This is a matter of life or death for the Ukrainian people,” the U.S. ambassador told the U.N. Security Council after delivering the statement calling for an investigation, which also was signed by Albania and Ukraine. The five countries accused Russia of violating the Security Council resolution endorsing the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and six major powers, not only by procuring hundreds of Mohajer and Shahed drones by also by working with Iran to produce drones inside Russia. The 2015 resolution prohibits all countries from transferring such weapons from Iran without advance Security Council approval, which was not given, the statement said. “ Russia has been using these UAVs in recent weeks to strike Kyiv, destroy Ukrainian infrastructure, and kill and terrorize Ukrainian civilians,” the U.S. and its allies said. “The United Nations must respond to growing calls from the international community to investigate these violations.”U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said the U.N. Secretariat, which is headed by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, is still analyzing information it received regarding “the alleged transfer of un-crewed aerial vehicles by Iran in a manner inconsistent” with the 2015 resolution. He said a report expected soon from Guterres will be discussed this month by experts on the committee monitoring implementation of the resolution, and by the 15-member Security Council in July. Russia is one of five permanent members with veto power. Thomas-Greenfield told reporters the resolution gives the secretary-general a mandate to open an investigation. Haq gave no indication of whether Guterres would do so. Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the Security Council that Ukraine has not given Russia or Iran an “iota of credible evidence” about the use of Iranian drones. “We hope that the secretary-general has sufficient wisdom not to be misled by our former Western partners,” Nebenzia said.

Russian mercenary boss says Moscow's war in Ukraine based on lies
LONDON (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Friday that the official Kremlin-backed version of why Moscow invaded Ukraine was based on lies concocted by his perennial adversary - the army's top brass.
Prigozhin has for months been accusing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of rank incompetence, but on Friday he for the first time rejected Russia's core justifications for invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year in what it calls a "special military operation".
"... the Defence Ministry is trying to deceive society and the president and tell us a story about how there was crazy aggression from Ukraine and that they were planning to attack us with the whole of NATO," Prigozhin said in a video clip released on Telegram by his press service, calling the official version "a beautiful story"."The special operation was started for different reasons," he said. "The war was needed ... so that Shoigu could become a marshal ... so that he could get a second 'Hero' [of Russia] medal. The war wasn't needed to demilitarise or denazify Ukraine."
He also said the war had been needed to acquire "material assets" to divide among the ruling elite. Prigozhin portrays his Wagner private militia, which spearheaded the capture of the city of Bakhmut last month, as Russia's most effective fighting force, and has enjoyed unusual freedom to publicly criticise Moscow, albeit not President Vladimir Putin, on whose support he ultimately depends. Yet his latest assertion runs directly counter to the rationale for the war espoused by Putin, who said when sending his armed forces into Ukraine that it was to demilitarise and denazify a country that posed a threat to Russia. The Kremlin leader casts the conflict as an existential struggle against a Western alliance that wants to use Ukraine as a platform to destroy Russia. There was no immediate response from the Defence Ministry, which has ignored previous complaints from Prigozhin, in public at least. Nor was there any immediate reaction from the Kremlin, which has declined in the past to comment on Prigozhin's outbursts.

Ukraine says it advances in south, stops Russian attack in east
KYIV (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Ukraine's armed forces have halted a Russian offensive towards the cities of Kupiansk and Lyman in the east of the country, and are advancing in the south, a senior Ukrainian defence official said on Friday."We had very fierce battles in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions, but our soldiers stopped the enemy there," Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian television. Ukraine is in the early stages of its most ambitious counterattack since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 and says it has retaken eight villages, its first substantial gains on the battlefield for seven months.
But Russia still holds swathes of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces have yet to push to the main defensive lines that Russia has had months to prepare. "Indeed, we still have the main events ahead of us. And the main blow is still to come. Indeed, some of the reserves - these are staged things - will be activated later," Maliar said. She said Russian forces still aimed to gain control of the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine's military operation in the south was going according to plan and its forces were advancing, even if minefields were slowing them down, she said. "In the military, according to their reports and positions, everything is moving according to plan. It is not necessary to expect the offensive to be something very fast," Maliar said. "Every day we are advancing, every day. Yes, it is gradual, but our forces are gaining a foothold on these borders and they are advancing steadily."Reuters was unable to verify the situation on the battlefield. Each side says the other has suffered heavy losses since Ukraine began its counteroffensive, and Moscow has not acknowledged Ukraine's recent military gains.

Ukraine's defence minister wants NATO membership 'formula' at Vilnius summit
KYIV (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Friday he expected Kyiv to receive a clear signal and "formula" for it to become a member of NATO when the military alliance holds a summit in Vilnius next month. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has pressed hard for Ukrainian membership of NATO but also said he recognises it would be impossible to join while Russia's war in Ukraine is still raging. "I expect them to give us a clear, understandable signal and formula for us, obviously, to become a NATO member," Reznikov was quoted as saying by Ukraine's military press centre. The NATO summit is set to take place on July 11-12, with no end in sight to the war launched by Russia in Ukraine. Kyiv's allies are divided over how fast Kyiv should join and some Western governments are wary of any move that might take the alliance closer to war with Russia. Ukrainian forces have started a counteroffensive in the southeast to try to recapture swathes of occupied land that Russia has heavily fortified.

Ukraine's president tells other countries to act before Russia attacks nuclear plant
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Ukraine wants other countries to heed its warning that Russia may be planning to attack an occupied nuclear power plant to cause a radiation disaster, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Members of his government briefed international representatives on Thursday on the possible threat to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. In his nightly address, Zelenskyy said he expected other nations to “give appropriate signals and exert pressure” on Moscow.
“Our principle is simple: The world must know what the occupier is preparing. Everyone who knows must act,” Zelenskyy said. “The world has enough power to prevent any radiation incidents, let alone a radiation catastrophe.”
The potential for a life-threatening release of radiation has been a concern since Russian troops invaded Ukraine last year and seized the plant, which is Europe’s largest nuclear power station. The head of the U.N.'s atomic energy agency spent months unsuccessfully trying to negotiate for a safety perimeter to protect the facility as nearby areas came under repeated shelling. The International Atomic Energy Agency noted Thursday that the “the military situation has become increasingly tense” while a Ukrainian counteroffensive that got underway this month unfolds in Zaporizhzhia province, where the namesake plant is located, and in an adjacent part of Donetsk province. On Friday, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi met with the director of Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom to discuss the conditions at the plant.
Rosatom director Alexey Likachev and other officials at the meeting in the Kaliningrad exclave “emphasized that they now expect specific steps" from the U.N. agency to prevent Ukrainian attacks on the plant and its adjacent territory, said a statement from the Russian corporation, whose divisions build and operate nuclear power plants.
The governor of Zaporizhzhia, Yuriy Malashko, reported Friday that Russian shelling in the southern province killed two people in the past day. An attack that hit a transportation company in Kherson, the capital of Kherson province, killed two others on Friday, governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.
Russia also fired 13 cruise missiles overnight at a military airfield in the western Khmelnytskyi province but Ukrainian air defenses intercepted them all, according to the air force. The attack came after Russian-appointed officials said that Ukrainian-fired missiles damaged a bridge that serves as key supply link to occupied areas of southern Ukraine. Russia's air-launched Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles were sent from the Caspian Sea, the air force said. It did not identify the targeted airfield, but Ukraine has an air base near the Khmelnytskyi region's town of Starokostiantyniv. The base houses fighter jets and bombers, and five years ago it hosted a training exercise with air force personnel from the United States, Ukraine and seven European countries. It has come under Russian attack previously, including within the last month. Ukrainian forces so far have made only incremental gains in Zaporizhzhia province, one of four regions of the country that Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed last year. Putin has pledged to defend the regions as Russian territory. Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine is fighting to force Russian troops out of those regions and Crimea, which Moscow is using as a staging and supply route in the 16-month-old war. If the counteroffensive now in its early stages breaks the Russian defenses in the south, Ukrainian forces could attempt to reach a pair of occupied port cities on the Sea of Azoz and break Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. The Ukrainian leader's nighttime remarks Thursday on a possible attack on the nuclear power plant carried a tone of frustration with “countries that are pretending to be neutral even now” in the war. He accused “anyone who turns a blind eye to Russia’s occupation of such a facility” of enabling Moscow to commit an act of evil and terror.“Obviously, radiation does not ask who is neutral and can reach anyone in the world. Accordingly, anyone in the world can help now, and it is quite clear what to do,” Zelenskyy said.
On Friday, Russia claimed it was the target of “an information and propaganda campaign to discredit the country in the international arena.” Russia’s Federal Security Service, the FSB, said five people were arrested for trying to smuggle a kilogram of the radioactive isotope Cesium-137 out of the country under the direction of a Ukrainian citizen. The FSB said the material was to be used for “organizing staged scenes of the use of weapons of mass destruction.” Cesium-137 is often mentioned as of potential use in making a ”dirty bomb" that could contaminate a wide area.

UN puts Russian forces on blacklist for killing children in Ukraine
Associated Press/June 23, 2023
The United Nations put Russian forces on its annual blacklist of countries that violate children's rights in conflict for killing boys and girls and attacking schools and hospitals in Ukraine. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in the report to the Security Council that he is "appalled" by the high number of "grave violations" against children in Ukraine in 2022, "shocked" at the number of attacks on schools and hospitals, "concerned" by the detention of children, and "troubled" that some Ukrainian children have been transferred to Russia. The U.N. chief did not put Israel on the blacklist for grave violations against 1,139 Palestinian children, including 54 killings last year — as supporters had hoped. Instead, he welcomed Israel's engagement with the U.N. special envoy for children in armed conflict, Virginia Gamba and its "identification of practical measures including those proposed by the U.N." to protect children.
Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian U.N. ambassador, told reporters Guterres "made a big mistake" in not listing the most extreme government in Israel's history. "It is very disappointing to the Palestinian people and to the Palestinian children," he said. In the wide-ranging report, the secretary-general said that last year children were disproportionately affected by conflict. He said the U.N. verified grave violations against 13,469 children, including 2,985 who were killed, in 24 countries and one region. "Grave violations" include the recruitment and use of youngsters by combatants, killings and injuries, sexual violence, abductions, and attacks on schools and hospitals. Guterres said the spread of conflicts to new areas contributed to a 140% increase in grave violations in Myanmar and a 135% increase in South Sudan. An upsurge in activity by armed groups, including al-Qaida and the Islamic State, also caused a severe deterioration of the situation in the central Sahel, particularly in Burkina Faso, leading to an 85% increase in grave violations. Violations also increased in Colombia, Israel, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan and Syria, the secretary-general said. While armed groups were responsible for 50% of the grave violations, Guterres said government forces were mainly responsible for the killing and maiming of children, for the attacks on schools and hospitals, and for the denial of humanitarian access. The countries with the most verified violations were Congo, Israel and the Palestinian territories, Somalia and Syria, he said. By contrast, Afghanistan, Central African Republic and the Philippines saw a decrease in grave violations, and last year's truce in Yemen contributed to a 40% drop in violations. The report also lists two new countries of concern for children: Haiti and Niger. Guterres said the Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups were listed for carrying out 480 attacks on schools and hospitals, and for killing children, in particular through their shelling and airstrikes on cities and towns. According to the report, 136 Ukrainian children were killed and 518 injured. The secretary-general urged Russian forces to abide by their obligations under international law and their own commitments to protect children, including by avoiding the military use of schools and hospitals, putting in place accountability and reparations measures, and exchanging information with the U.N. on all children in conflict-affected areas. Guterres also urged Russia to ensure that no changes are made to the personal status of Ukrainian children, including their nationality. Deportations of Ukrainian children have been a concern since Russia's invasion, and the International Criminal Court increased pressure on Russia when it issued arrest warrants on March 17 for President Vladimir Putin and the Russian children's rights commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, accusing them of abducting children from Ukraine. The U.N. chief said he is also concerned by the number of grave violations against children by Ukrainian forces and urged them to abide by protections for civilians under international law. According to the report, Ukrainian armed forces were responsible for the deaths of 80 children and injuries to 175 others, as well as 212 attacks on schools and hospitals.

US convenes nuclear weapons meeting with China, France, Russia, UK
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
The United States this month convened a meeting of working-level experts from China, France, Russia and the United Kingdom to discuss nuclear weapons issues including strategic risk reduction, the State Department said. The department said Washington hosted the meeting on June 13-14 in Cairo among the five nuclear weapons states, describing it as "an ongoing exchange in the context of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)."The experts were drawn from the countries' respective ministries of foreign affairs and defense, the department said. They "discussed strategic risk reduction, as well as nuclear doctrines and policy," it added. The NPT, which took effect in 1970, aims to halt the spread of nuclear weapons-making capability and guarantee the right of members to develop nuclear energy for peace means. The treaty allowed the five nuclear weapons states - who are the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - to keep their nuclear arsenals.

Sudan's warring factions widen conflict across the country
CAIRO (Reuters)/Fri, June 23, 2023
Sudan's two-month long war is extending across the country with the army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) clashing in several areas on Friday. Air strikes and anti-aircraft missile fire hit overnight in the Omdurman and Khartoum, two of the three cities that make up Sudan's wider capital. But the war has in recent days heated up in cities to the west of the capital, in the fragile Darfur and Kordofan regions. In Al Fashir, capital of North Darfur state, a fragile truce fell apart as the two forces clashed in residential areas.And in El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan and a transport hub between Khartoum and Darfur, where the RSF maintains significant presence, the paramilitary force clashed with the heavily armed Central Reserve Police. The worst fighting has been in West Darfur, where militias backed by the RSF razed areas of the city and forced a mass exodus, residents and human rights monitors said. The West Darfur city of El Geneina has been worst hit by repeated militia attacks. The United States said on Thursday it had suspended talks which had so far presented the only forum for discussions between the two sides, though it only resulted in short, often-violated humanitarian ceasefire agreements.
In recent days, fighting had also picked up between the army and RSF in Nyala, capital of South Darfur and one of Sudan's largest cities. Clashes continued on Friday in the south of Nyala, and a resident said civilians were killed but could provide no further details. A new front in the fighting is also threatening to open in South Kordofan, where the rebel SPLM-N controls some areas. The army earlier this week accused the force of violating a long-held ceasefire agreement. The fighting has caused more than 2.5 million to be displaced, hundreds of thousands of whom have fled across the border, including to Chad and Egypt. It has created a humanitarian crisis with NGOs struggling to provide much needed medical and food aid. On Saturday, medical aid agency MSF said its operations have been hindered by both parties, including rejected travel permits. "MSF supplies have been confiscated, while armed groups have looted our facilities and beaten and violently threatened staff," it said in a statement.

All five on Titanic sub dead after 'catastrophic' implosion, focus turns to cause
Associated Press/June 23, 2023
The search for a missing Titanic-bound submersible has become an investigation and salvage mission that will take an indefinite amount of time, officials said, as tributes from around the world poured in for the five people killed when the vessel imploded deep in the North Atlantic. The announcement Thursday that all aboard perished when the submersible imploded near the site of the iconic shipwreck brought a tragic end to a five-day saga that included an urgent around-the-clock search and a worldwide vigil for the vessel known as the Titan. The investigation into what happened was already underway and would continue in the area around Titanic where debris from the submersible was found, said Rear Adm. John Mauger, of the First Coast Guard District.
"I know there are also a lot of questions about how, why and when did this happen. Those are questions we will collect as much information as we can about now," Mauger said, adding that it was a "complex case" that happened in a remote part of the ocean and involved people from several different countries.
The first hint of a timeline came Thursday evening when a senior U.S. Navy official said that after the Titan was reported missing Sunday, the Navy went back and analyzed its acoustic data and found an "anomaly" that was consistent with an implosion or explosion in the general vicinity of where the vessel was operating when communications were lost. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive acoustic detection system. Those killed were Stockton Rush, the CEO of OceanGate Expeditions, the company that owned and operated the submersible; two members of a prominent Pakistani family, Shahzada Dawood and his son Suleman Dawood; British adventurer Hamish Harding; and Titanic expert Paul-Henri Nargeolet.
OceanGate, which has been chronicling the Titanic's decay and the underwater ecosystem around it via yearly voyages since 2021 that included paying tourists, released a statement calling all five people killed "true explorers who shared a distinct spirit of adventure, and a deep passion for exploring and protecting the world's oceans."Tributes to those killed and praise for the searchers who tried to save them poured in from across the globe. The White House thanked the Coast Guard, along with Canadian, British and French partners who helped in the search and rescue efforts.
"Our hearts go out to the families and loved ones of those who lost their lives on the Titan. They have been through a harrowing ordeal over the past few days, and we are keeping them in our thoughts and prayers," it said in a statement.
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry wrote on Twitter that it appreciates "the multinational efforts over the last several days in search of the vessel." The Dawood family also thanked all involved in the search. "Their untiring efforts were a source of strength for us during this time," the family said in a statement. "We are also indebted to our friends, family, colleagues and well-wishers from all over the world who stood by us during our need."
The Titan launched at 6 a.m. Sunday and was reported overdue Sunday afternoon about 435 miles (700 kilometers) south of St. John's, Newfoundland. Rescuers rushed ships, planes and other equipment to the site of the disappearance.
Authorities were hoping underwater sounds detected Tuesday and Wednesday might help narrow their search, whose coverage area had been expanded to thousands of miles — twice the size of Connecticut and in waters 2 1/2 miles (4 kilometers) deep.
Any sliver of hope that remained for finding the crew alive, however, was wiped away early Thursday, when the submersible's 96-hour supply of air was expected to run out and the Coast Guard announced that a debris field had been found roughly 1,600 feet (488 meters) from the Titanic.
"The debris is consistent with the catastrophic loss of the pressure chamber," Mauger said. The Coast Guard said Thursday that the sounds heard in the previous days were likely generated by something other than the Titan. "There doesn't appear to be any connection between the noises and the location (of the debris) on the seafloor," Mauger said. The Navy official who spoke of the "anomaly" heard Sunday said the Navy passed on the information to the Coast Guard, which continued its search because the Navy did not consider the data to be definitive. At least 46 people successfully traveled on OceanGate's submersible to the Titanic wreck site in 2021 and 2022, according to letters the company filed with a U.S. District Court in Norfolk, Virginia, that oversees matters involving the Titanic shipwreck. But questions about the submersible's safety were raised by both by a former company employee and former passengers. David Lochridge, OceanGate's former director of marine operations, argued in 2018 that the method the company devised for ensuring the soundness of the hull — relying on acoustic monitoring that could detect cracks and pops as the hull strained under pressure — was inadequate and could "subject passengers to potential extreme danger in an experimental submersible.""This was problematic because this type of acoustic analysis would only show when a component is about to fail — often milliseconds before an implosion — and would not detect any existing flaws prior to putting pressure onto the hull," Lochridge's attorneys wrote in a wrongful termination claim. OceanGate disagreed. Lochridge "is not an engineer and was not hired or asked to perform engineering services on the Titan," it said, and it noted he was fired after refusing to accept assurances from the company's lead engineer that the acoustic monitoring and testing protocol was, in fact, better suited to detect any flaws than a method Lochridge proposed.
One of the company's first customers likened a dive he made to the site two years ago to a suicide mission. "Imagine a metal tube a few meters long with a sheet of metal for a floor. You can't stand. You can't kneel. Everyone is sitting close to or on top of each other," said Arthur Loibl, a retired businessman and adventurer from Germany. "You can't be claustrophobic." During the 2 1/2-hour descent and ascent, the lights were turned off to conserve energy, he said, with the only illumination coming from a fluorescent glow stick. The dive was repeatedly delayed to fix a problem with the battery and the balancing weights. In total, the voyage took 10 1/2 hours. Nicolai Roterman, a deep-sea ecologist and lecturer in marine biology at the University of Portsmouth, England, said the disappearance of the Titan highlights the dangers and unknowns of deep-sea tourism. "Even the most reliable technology can fail, and therefore accidents will happen. With the growth in deep-sea tourism, we must expect more incidents like this."

Hajj disasters: stampedes, infernos and a bloody siege
Agence France Presse
It is Islam's holiest pilgrimage, but the hajj to Mecca in Saudi Arabia has in recent decades been plagued by deadly disasters, from stampedes to militant attacks.
Yet the last time the pilgrimage was cancelled outright was in 1798, when Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Egypt.
The coronavirus pandemic did, however, force the kingdom to radically downscale the 2020 event to just a few thousand people, a far cry from the 2.5 million believers who took part in 2019.
The numbers were scaled back up to 926,000 in 2022, but this year the kingdom is gearing up to host more than two million Muslims from around the world for the rituals that start on Sunday.
Here are some recent incidents that have marred the centuries-old pilgrimage:
- Stampedes -
2015 - A stampede during the "stoning of the devil" ritual in Mina, near Mecca, kills up to 2,300 worshippers on September 24 in the worst hajj disaster ever.
That comes after more than 100 people are killed and hundreds injured, including many foreigners, when stormy weather topples a crane onto Mecca's Grand Mosque less than two weeks before the pilgrimage.
2006 - Some 364 pilgrims die in a stampede on January 12 during the Mina stoning ritual, in which hajj participants throw pebbles at three headstones to symbolize their rejection of Satan.
This follows a hotel collapse a week earlier in the city center, which kills 76 people.
The previous year, three pilgrims are crushed to death in a stampede on January 22 at the stoning ceremony.
2004 - 251 people die after a huge stampede at the stoning ceremony on February 1.
1998 - More than 118 people are killed and 180 injured in a stampede in Mina on April 9.
1994 - During the Mina stoning on May 24, a stampede kills 270 people, with authorities blaming "record numbers" of pilgrims.
1990 - The failure of a tunnel ventilation system triggers a huge stampede on July 2 that kills 1,426 pilgrims, mainly from Asia.
- Attacks -
1989 - A twin attack on the outside of the Grand Mosque on July 10 kills one and wounds 16. Weeks later, 16 Kuwaiti Shiites are found guilty and executed.
1979 - Hundreds of gunmen calling for the abdication of the Saudi royal family barricade themselves inside Mecca's Grand Mosque on November 20, taking dozens of pilgrims hostage. The official toll of the assault and subsequent fighting is 153 dead and 560 wounded.
- Protests -
1987 - Saudi security forces suppress an unauthorized protest by Iranian pilgrims on July 31 in which more than 400 people including 275 Iranians are killed, according to an official toll.
- Infernos -
1997 - A fire on April 15 caused by a gas stove rips through a camp housing pilgrims at Mina, killing 343 and injuring around 1,500.
1995 - Three people die and 99 are injured on May 7 in a fire at the Mina camp.
1975 - A huge fire on December 14 started by an exploding gas canister in a pilgrim camp close to Mecca kills 200 people.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 23-24/2023
China in Cuba: Nuclear-Armed Communists on the Warpath
Gordon G. Chang/ Gatestone Institute/June 23, 2023
While Americans think of nukes as defensive instruments to deter attacks, Chinese war planners view them as offensive weapons, to compel submission. In other words, China thinks it can prevent others from coming to the aid of, say, Taiwan, by threatening nuclear destruction of their homelands. With all the additional silos in China, why would the People's Liberation Army need missiles in Cuba? Think shorter flight times -- meaning less warning time. All this means that, thanks to Cuba, a war in Asia will be fought on, near, and over the American homeland -- perhaps with nukes.
China, according to "fragmentary" U.S. intelligence reports, is about to establish a "joint military training facility" with Cuba on that island. Chinese military personnel are already listening in on American communications from the Lourdes base near Havana and three other Cuban locations. Two of those locations have been known for some time: Bejucal and Santiago de Cuba. These facilities, it appears, have been in operation for all or most of this century. "What is missing is the strategic aim of China's economic influence, which, in my opinion, goes beyond simply having a strong trade relationship with Latin America," Joseph Humire of the Center for a Secure Free Society told Gatestone. "At its core, the People's Republic of China is focused on gaining geopolitical leverage over countries in Central and South America to be used in an eventual conflict with the United States."China, with that leverage, is obtaining permission to build in this hemisphere military installations that can be used to attack the American homeland or the U.S. military, should China launch its invasion of Taiwan, Japan, or some other target. China, for instance, is developing what looks like a naval base at the tip of Argentina, at strategic Tierra del Fuego.
Moreover, China's troubled container port in Freeport, Bahamas, about 90 miles from Palm Beach, Florida, could end up hosting Chinese naval vessels. It also may not be long before China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) bases substantial forces on Cuba, only 94 miles from Key West, Florida. "For a near-term war, China would use Cuba as a base for projecting and facilitating massive cyberattacks and espionage operations while working with Cuba's formidable intelligence services to undertake a range of 'wet' operations, from assassinations to attacks on U.S. installations, even civilian facilities such as gas stations," said Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center to this publication. In addition, the PLA could deploy anti-ship cruise missiles in Cuba both to hit U.S. Navy bases in Florida and block the movement of American vessels. China might also put surface-to-air missiles on Cuba, potentially to shoot down planes over the southeast United States.
How about a second Cuban Missile Crisis, this time with the Chinese instead of the Soviets? China's leaders are brazen, as the spy balloon incident of January and February suggests. Would they deploy ballistic missiles and other weaponry there?
Fisher thinks they will. "In the medium term, look for China to facilitate Cuba's acquisition of ballistic missiles, which will at a minimum force a U.S. defensive response that will tie down the U.S. military, reducing U.S. chances of success in other theaters," he says. Ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads. While Americans think of nukes as defensive instruments to deter attacks, Chinese war planners view them as offensive weapons, to compel submission. In other words, China thinks it can prevent others from coming to the aid of, say, Taiwan, by threatening nuclear destruction of their homelands.
Periodically throughout this century, China's generals and civilians have made unprovoked threats to incinerate Americans cities. American presidents have brushed off the warnings, ignoring the hostile words.
That is no longer a good idea, if it ever was. The Pentagon in a November 2022 report forecast that China would quadruple its warheads from about 400 then to 1,500 by 2035. The Chinese military is moving swiftly. The PLA, in three separate fields in the northern part of the country, is building at least 250 and perhaps as many as 360 silos, which appear designed to take the DF-41 missile. A DF-41 has a maximum range of 9,300 miles — putting all of America in range from those three locations — and can carry, some believe, 10 warheads apiece.
"For decades, they were quite comfortable with an arsenal of a few hundred nuclear weapons, which was fairly clearly a second-strike capability to act as a deterrent," Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall stated in testimony in March, referring to China. As Kendall testified, "I don't think I've seen anything more disturbing in my career than the Chinese ongoing expansion of their nuclear force."
So as China increases its arsenal, it's clear that Beijing no longer seeks only a "minimal deterrent." The rapid buildup, therefore, suggests the Chinese military is building an offensive "war-fighting" capability. With all the additional silos in China, why would the People's Liberation Army need missiles in Cuba? Think shorter flight times -- meaning less warning time. Moreover, U.S. missile defenses -- and radars -- are currently oriented to attacks from over the Arctic, from the north. Cuba gives China venues for southern attacks.
All this means that, thanks to Cuba, a war in Asia will be fought on, near, and over the American homeland -- perhaps with nukes.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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US and Russia came close to direct conflict at height of Syrian civil war
Dominic Nicholls/The Telegraph/June 23, 2023
The US and Russia came close to engaging in a direct military confrontation in Syria after the Russians threatened an American special forces base at the height of the civil war, it can be revealed. US commanders threatened to respond with military force after the Russians ordered American special forces to leave their base “or face destruction”. After the special forces had dispersed into the Syrian desert as a precautionary measure, US General Stephen Townsend, the commander of the US-led coalition’s Combined Joint Task Force, contacted his Russian opposite number to send him an ultimatum: “Are we talking or are we fighting.”After a brief pause, during which the Russians weighed up their options, they replied: “We are talking.” The response helped to defuse a major crisis between US and Russian forces operating in Syria during the civil war, which could easily have escalated into a major confrontation between Moscow and Washington.
When the call with the Russians ended with them backing down, a delighted Townsend informed his coalition colleagues: “My Russian friend just blinked.”Details of the tense stand-off, which took place at the US al-Tanf military base on the Syrian border with Jordan in May 2017, are revealed in Assad: The Triumph of Tyranny by author Con Coughlin. The incident took place at the height of the Syrian conflict when Russian and US forces were both operating in the country in pursuit of differing agendas. The Russian military had intervened in Syria on the orders of President Vladimir Putin in 2015 to save the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, while US forces were mainly combatting the militants of Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). At the time of the clash at al-Tanf, Russian forces were under the command of General Sergey Surovikin, who earned the nickname “General Armageddon” for his brutal tactics against Syrian rebel groups and later went on to command Russian forces in Ukraine. According to General Townsend, the potentially calamitous stand-off between US and Russian forces took place when Surovikin was away on leave, and his replacement failed to observe the strict deconfliction protocols agreed between the Americans and Russians to avoid a direct confrontation between the two forces.
General Townsend was adamant that the US forces should not capitulate to any form of Russian intimidation. “The Russians never got away with provocative action against the US while we were operating in Syria,” he said. “We always stood up to them when they came too close or tried to pressure us.”
US forces were involved in direct military action against the Russians in February 2018 when a contingent of mercenaries fighting with the Wagner Group attacked an outpost run by Syrian opposition forces and US special forces at the Syrian border city of Deir al-Zour. Between 200 and 300 Wagner mercenaries were reported to have been killed in the clash. The book also reveals that Putin, despite deploying his forces to keep Assad in power and protect Russia’s two military bases in the country, had little regard for the Syrian dictator.
“Putin thought Assad was a complete idiot,” recalled a former Arab intelligence chief who met regularly with the Russian leader. “Often when they met, Putin would simply ignore him and just talk to his own officials.”
Despite the Russians’ success in keeping the Assad regime in power, Putin was eventually forced to withdraw his forces from Syria in the summer of 2022 to bolster the war effort in Ukraine following the heavy losses Russia suffered following the invasion.
US coalition commanders believe that the Russian military’s performance in Syria played a significant factor in the series of humiliating defeats it suffered in Ukraine because in the Syrian conflict they were operating against ill-equipped militias, while in Ukraine they found themselves fighting against a well-prepared military force supplied with high-quality Western weaponry. “The Russian military learned all the wrong lessons from its intervention in Syria,” said a senior British officer who served in the US-led coalition. “They assumed they could resort to the same tactics they used in Syria to achieve their goals in Ukraine. This led them to completely misjudge the Ukrainians’ ability to defend their country.”

Iran Is the Middle East's Most Dangerous Tinderbox
Ian Bremmer/Time/June 23, 2023
Under pressure from Western sanctions, Iran is actively in search of new international trade and investment partners, and it has made some progress. In particular, a Chinese-brokered deal to normalize relations with regional rival Saudi Arabia has created commercial opportunities, and its willingness to provide Russia with drones and ammunition for use in Ukraine has created new openings too. It also helps Iran’s government that the nationwide surge of protests that followed the death in police custody last September of a young woman arrested for wearing her headscarf too loosely has largely died down, thanks mainly to the willingness of authorities to arrest large numbers of people and to execute a handful of them publicly.
But Iran’s leaders know their reprieve from pressure will prove temporary. Economic strain continues. Thanks mainly to sanctions, Iran’s currency has lost more than 90% of its value against the dollar over the past decade, and price inflation remains above 40%. Benefits from better relations with the Saudis will take time to materialize, and the rapprochement will likely remain tentative. President Ebrahim Raisi’s “Turn to the East” strategy is intended to bring major new infrastructure investment from both Russia and, more importantly, China, but Russia’s own economic outlook remains perilous, a wartime partnership with the Kremlin will bring new sanctions on Iran, and the Chinese can buy large volumes of heavily discounted oil from Russia, leaving Iran out in the cold.
Continuing hardship ensures that intense public anger and spontaneous protests can re-erupt at any time. In particular, though last year’s protesters have moved off the streets, many Iranian women and girls still refuse to wear mandatory headscarves, and the government has worked to re-establish its credibility with religious conservatives by pushing hard on enforcement. Police have issued tickets to uncovered women using public transport or even riding in private automobiles, and businesses are sometimes fined for serving them. With so much built-up resentment and economic pain, another arrest gone wrong could release another wave of unrest even harder to contain.
None of this is new for Iran. A feeble economy and cycles of protest and repression are all too familiar. Yet, lurking in the background are both hope and dread that fundamental change may not be far away.
In the Islamic Republic’s 44-year history, there has been just one transfer of supreme power. In 1989, the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini triggered a transition to the current leader, Ali Khamenei, who has remained in power ever since. The octogenarian Khamenei is a cancer survivor rumored to be in declining health, and there is no clear heir apparent for the clerical establishment and political elite to elevate. Today, everyone in Iran with access to wealth, power, and privilege must wonder how succession might alter his fortunes, and a political transition will raise public expectations for change among those exhausted by hardship and social repression.
Finally, there are the continuing risks created by Iran’s nuclear program and the inability of Iranian and Western leaders to broker a new deal over its future. Here, too, the tensions aren’t new, but ever higher levels of uranium enrichment bring closer the day when Israeli and American policymakers must decide how to block Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon that could trigger a dangerous arms race in the Middle East.
It might appear that the problems Iran creates for itself and those it poses for outsiders never change. Yet the risk is rising that Iran will soon become one of the world’s most dangerous wild cards.

Question: “Do Christians have to obey the Old Testament law?”
GotQuestions.org/June 23, 2023
Answer: The key to understanding the relationship between the Christian and the Law is knowing that the Old Testament law was given to the nation of Israel, not to Christians. Some of the laws were to reveal to the Israelites how to obey and please God (the Ten Commandments, for example). Some of the laws were to show the Israelites how to worship God and atone for sin (the sacrificial system). Some of the laws were intended to make the Israelites distinct from other nations (the food and clothing rules). None of the Old Testament law is binding on Christians today. When Jesus died on the cross, He put an end to the Old Testament law (Romans 10:4; Galatians 3:23–25; Ephesians 2:15).
In place of the Old Testament law, Christians are under the law of Christ (Galatians 6:2), which is to “love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind…and to love your neighbor as yourself” (Matthew 22:37-39). If we obey those two commands, we will be fulfilling all that Christ requires of us: “All the Law and the Prophets hang on these two commandments” (Matthew 22:40). Now, this does not mean the Old Testament law is irrelevant today. Many of the commands in the Old Testament law fall into the categories of “loving God” and “loving your neighbor.” The Old Testament law can be a good guidepost for knowing how to love God and knowing what goes into loving your neighbor. At the same time, to say that the Old Testament law applies to Christians today is incorrect. The Old Testament law is a unit (James 2:10). Either all of it applies, or none of it applies. If Christ fulfilled some of it, such as the sacrificial system, He fulfilled all of it.
“This is love for God: to obey his commands. And his commands are not burdensome” (1 John 5:3). The Ten Commandments were essentially a summary of the entire Old Testament law. Nine of the Ten Commandments are clearly repeated in the New Testament (all except the command to observe the Sabbath day). Obviously, if we are loving God, we will not be worshiping false gods or bowing down before idols. If we are loving our neighbors, we will not be murdering them, lying to them, committing adultery against them, or coveting what belongs to them. The purpose of the Old Testament law is to convict people of our inability to keep the law and point us to our need for Jesus Christ as Savior (Romans 7:7-9; Galatians 3:24). The Old Testament law was never intended by God to be the universal law for all people for all of time. We are to love God and love our neighbors. If we obey those two commands faithfully, we will be upholding all that God requires of us.

Saudi-French relations: the sky is the limit
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/June 23, 2023
Friday marks the end of a remarkable two weeks in the context of Saudi-French relations. Ties between the two nations have been reignited and rejuvenated and are now well on the way to reaching their full potential.
Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir aptly described what happened as a “quantum leap” in Saudi-French relations. During an interview with Arab News en Français in Paris, he said the leap was being fueled by two “young leaders who have visions and ambitions and the courage to move their countries to a better level,” in reference to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and French President Emmanuel Macron. “This is the coming together of many different elements,” added Al-Jubeir.
This quantum leap could be seen through the high-level participation at Vision Golfe 2023 — organized by the French Ministry for the Economy, Finance and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty — and the two countries’ political alignment on several regional and international files. They signed 24 memorandums of understanding at the France-Saudi Investment Forum.
There was a fantastic presentation at this week’s Expo 2030 reception, in which Saudi ministers and architects, including Khalid Al-Falih and Princess Reema bint Bandar, made a fitting case for why Saudi Arabia should be allowed to host Expo 2030 in Riyadh. Pride was the overwhelming emotion when the Saudis explained in great detail the fabulous changes that are taking place in the Kingdom and how the world should come to Saudi Arabia.
At the Paris Air Show, Saudi-French relations really did take to the skies. Saudi Arabia’s budget airline flynas was a major player, ordering 30 aircraft worth $3.73 billion from aerospace manufacturer Airbus. Airbus also signed an investment agreement worth more than 25 billion riyals ($6.7 billion) to build military and civilian helicopters in Saudi Arabia with a local defense company.
Finally, the crown prince himself led the Saudi delegation at the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact.
It was indeed a remarkable fortnight.
But what exactly does this quantum leap in Saudi-French relations entail and how did it come about? First, we need to understand that it was not a sudden success or a surprise. This is instead a multifaceted relationship that has been in the works for years.
Culturally, as described in a column for this newspaper by Saudi Culture Minister Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Farhan, we are celebrating “five golden years of Saudi-French cultural cooperation.” He wrote: “Over the past five years there have been qualitative transfers in our cultural cooperation, thanks to the Saudi and French leaders’ shared commitment and recognition of the importance of this cooperation to continue strengthening our bilateral partnership. Saudi Vision 2030 has opened vast opportunities and we are working with partners globally to leverage these opportunities.”
Like Saudi Arabia, France is as concerned with mutually beneficial opportunities in the future as it is about history and culture. In fact, at Vision Golfe 2023, Saudi Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Alkhorayef outlined 12 sectors in which French companies are welcome and can contribute.
It was thus no surprise that, at the Saudi-French Investment Forum that was also held this week, the French minister of foreign trade described Saudi Arabia as France’s leading trade partner in the region.
Politically, there is a clear alignment on many regional and international issues. Two examples are the need for a peaceful solution in Ukraine and the need for stability in the Middle East, where Riyadh and Paris perhaps see eye to eye on almost every topic. Lebanon is the only possible exception, since Riyadh has signaled many times that it must solve its own problems and the Kingdom has steered away from backing a particular candidate for the vacant presidential seat.
Apart from that, it seems like the sky is clear. Who knows what this partnership can go on to achieve, with all the changes, reforms and opportunities emerging in the new Saudi Arabia?
In another three years, Saudi Arabia and France will be celebrating 100 years of diplomatic relations. As Saudi Investment Minister Al-Falih said: “Many of Saudi Arabia’s achievements in Vision 2030 will have the fingerprints of Saudi-French partnerships.”
Throughout the past two weeks, the French got a taste of what it means to work and partner with Saudi Arabia. And thanks to the spectacular show put on at the Grand Palais Ephemere for the Expo 2030 reception, and the presence of Saudi astronauts Ali Alqarni and Rayanah Barnawi, who just returned from Earth orbit, it seems that at least when it comes to the Saudi-French relationship, the sky is literally the limit.
*Faisal J. Abbas is the editor in chief of Arab News. Twitter: @FaisalJAbbas

Three scenarios for an unlikely breakthrough on Syria
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/June 23, 2023
Kazakhstan on Wednesday surprised everyone, including the Russians, by stating that it would stop hosting talks aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict. The announcement came as delegates were wrapping up the 20th round of talks held in the capital, Astana.
The basis for the decision was that the talks that started in 2017 have achieved their purpose. However, in reality, we are far from any political solution in Syria. A military solution is also not on the table: The regime cannot face the Americans in the northeast or the Turks in the northwest. Neither Turkiye nor the US are ready for another faceoff in Syria.
Today, Syria is de facto divided into three regions. The northeast is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces. The Kurdish Democratic Union Party, known as the PYD, is the force behind the SDF, but Turkiye views this group as the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK , the terrorist group that conducts operations on Turkish soil. The SDF operates under American protection. In the northwest, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front, is the main armed group. The northwest — or the greater Idlib area — is under Turkish protection. The rest of Syria is under Assad regime control, with some areas run by Russia and others by Iran.
Even if the regime does agree to something, the Kurds know that it will renege on its promises
If there is to be a breakthrough, these three areas need to be reconciled. If two areas were to come together, this would put pressure on the third. There are three possible scenarios, but they are equally difficult to achieve; hence, we are most likely to remain in a state of deadlock.
The first scenario is for there to be a regime-SDF agreement. This would be encouraged by the Russians, accepted by Gulf countries and even tolerated by the US. Brett McGurk, who currently handles the Middle East for the US National Security Council, wrote an article in Foreign Affairs magazine in 2019, in which he said the war in Syria would not end as a result of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, but rather by an agreement between the Kurds and the regime.
Though estimates vary, the SDF has approximately 50,000 fighters who are trained and equipped by the US. They could make up the backbone of the Syrian Army and beef up Assad’s forces, which are stressed by financial pressure. However, the various discussions held between the PYD and the regime resulted in no breakthrough. Even if the regime does agree to something, the Kurds know that it will renege on its promises.
To add to that, the regime, which perceives itself as being the winner of the 12-year war, does not feel the need to relinquish anything to the Kurds as they are in a precarious position. There are a lot of tensions with the Arab population. They are protected by a minimal American force and are constantly attacked by the Turks.
The second possible scenario is an extension of the Astana talks. This revolves around a Turkiye-Bashar Assad rapprochement. However, this is equally difficult. To start with, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent overture to Assad was mainly for electoral purposes. The Turkish public mood has been growing increasingly against Syrian refugees. The opposition was blaming Erdogan for the problem and arguing that he was preventing their return because of the bad relationship he has with Damascus.
One of the main campaign promises made by Erdogan’s opponents ahead of last month’s presidential and parliamentary elections was to ensure the return of refugees through negotiations with Damascus. Erdogan wanted to remove this argument from the opposition’s armory, so he announced that he was ready to meet with Assad for “peace” in the region. Now that Erdogan has won a new term, however, such a meeting is unlikely.
Erdogan, who has been a supporter of the opposition for more than a decade, cannot pull the plug on them
Assad, who has always had an uncompromising attitude, is conditioning any meeting on a Turkish withdrawal from the northwest. This is totally unrealistic. The people who are in Idlib are irreconcilable with the regime. If the regime attacked Idlib, it would result in a new wave of refugees that Turkiye cannot absorb, while the international community also does not want to see a new wave of refugees or any new carnage created by Assad’s forces. Also, Assad, despite the rhetoric, could not handle Idlib with all the problems it has. And Erdogan, who has been a supporter of the opposition for more than a decade, cannot pull the plug on them. This would greatly affect his image and his credibility.
The third and best scenario is a northeast-northwest agreement. This is equally difficult for the simple reason that Turkiye does not feel it needs to make any concessions to the Kurds. The PKK problem is solved at home and it is keeping the PYD contained by various coercive methods. Though such a solution would, in the long run, achieve stability, which would be in the best interest of Turkiye, Turkish policy has been conducted in a transactional manner. From the Turkish perspective, they do not have to make concessions to a weaker foe. Also, Turkiye does not trust the PYD, believing that the group will renege on its promises when it has the chance.
For this deal to happen, the US should intervene and clinch a bargain with Turkiye, one that gives both Ankara and the Kurds security guarantees. The deal should involve the PYD turning in their heavy and medium weapons. The local council that is now controlled by the PYD must also become democratically elected to ensure that it represents the variety of the communities and that the PYD’s influence is lessened.
In order to make sure that these changes are maintained, international observers should be deployed. In return, Turkiye would open its border and allow the flow of water. Ankara has been using the water of the Euphrates as a coercive measure against the Kurds in Syria. This solution, though difficult to achieve, is the best option because it will create enough pressure on Assad and his backers to abide by UNSC Resolution 2254 and accept a political transition that will end the conflict.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.