Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 13-14/2023
An Israeli bombardment targeted a military site in Damascus countryside
Dubai - Al Arabiya.net/June 13/2023
On Wednesday morning, official Syrian media reported that explosions were heard in the vicinity of the capital, Damascus.
"Israeli bombing"
And the agency "SANA" indicated that "the Syrian air defense media are confronting hostile targets in the sky around Damascus." While a military source told Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath that the Israeli bombardment targeted a military site in the vicinity of the Al-Kiswah area in the countryside of Damascus.
Hundreds of airstrikes
Since the outbreak of the conflict in Syria in 2011, the region has witnessed tensions from time to time, as shells sometimes fall on the Israeli side, which responds to them. Over the past years, Israel has launched hundreds of air raids in Syria, including Syrian army sites and Iranian and Hezbollah targets, some of which are in this region.
Israel rarely confirms the implementation of the strikes, but it repeats that it will continue to confront what it describes as Iran's attempts to establish its military presence near its borders.

Israel reports record $12.5 billion defence exports, 24% of them to Arab partners
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/Tue, June 13, 2023
Israel exported a record $12.556 billion in defence products last year, with new Arab partners under the U.S.-sponsored 2020 Abraham Accords accounting for almost a quarter of the business, the Defence Ministry said on Tuesday. It said the 2022 figures marked a 50% increase over the previous three years and a doubling in volume over the previous decade. Drones accounted for 25% of the 2022 exports and missiles, rockets or air defence systems for 19%, it said. Without naming specific clients, the ministry said 24% of defence exports were to Abraham Accords countries. United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were signatories to those accords, and Israel often counts Morocco and Sudan as part of them as well. Asia and the Pacific accounted for 30% of Israeli defence exports, Europe for 29% and North America for 11%, it said.

Iran Confirms Indirect Talks with the US, Mediated by Oman
London: Asharq Al Awsat Tehran: Asharq Al Awsat/13 June 2023
Iran and the US held indirect talks under Omani mediation, announced the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani. Kanaani announced that mediators are also negotiating the issue of exchanging prisoners if Washington showed "seriousness and goodwill." Earlier, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed his support for an agreement on the country's nuclear program with the West but added that "the existing infrastructure of the nuclear industry should not be touched."He urged Iranian officials to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), calling on the officials not to yield to the Agency's "excessive and false demands”. He said that a law passed by Iran's parliament in 2020 had to be respected. Kanaani said the government was "serious" in reaching an agreement following Khamenei’s orders and within the framework of the parliament law to secure national interests. He claimed that "Iran's government has never left the negotiation table and has shown its readiness to conduct serious and substantive negotiations to reach a conclusion" on reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Kanaani confirmed reports about talks between Iran and the US through Oman mediation in the past few weeks, claiming the Muscat talks were not secret but an opportunity to defend Iran's national interests. "We welcomed the mediation proposal put forward by senior Omani officials several weeks ago and exchanged messages with the other party, with the aim of activating the 'sanctions removal' talks," he said."We have never stopped the diplomatic processes."Last week, a well-informed senior European source told Asharq Al-Awsat that a return to the agreement in the form proposed a year ago was "no longer possible," noting that any deal must be negotiated from the outset. Two European diplomatic sources also told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Omani mediation is related to issues outside the nuclear agreement. One of the diplomats said that the US has other outstanding issues they are discussing through Omani officials. Axios website revealed that indirect negotiations occurred between the chief Iranian negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, and the White House Middle East Coordinator, Brett McGurk, last month in Muscat about concluding an interim agreement. In the past few days, Washington and Tehran denied media reports that the two sides had reached an interim agreement on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, which includes the release of US detainees and Iran reducing uranium enrichment by 60 percent in exchange for the release of frozen Iranian assets in South Korea, Iraq, and the World Bank. The US special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, and the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in New York, Saeed Irvani, held several meetings. On Saturday, Iranian lawmaker Mojtaba Tavanger confirmed the meetings, but the US obstructions failed the prisoner exchange deal. "America is trying to get more concessions from Iran in nuclear matters in exchange for releasing frozen funds, a policy violating the law and contradictory to Iran's interests," Tavangar added. Former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 to modify Iran's regional behavior and its expansion of ballistic missile activities. On Friday, the White House described press reports of an interim agreement as "false and misleading."Iran's mission to the UN also cast doubt on the report: "Our comment is the same as the White House comment."At least three Iranian-US nationals are being held in Iran, including businessman Siamak Namazi, who was arrested in October 2015 and sentenced to ten years on espionage charges. In 2022, Iran said that dozens of its citizens were detained in the US, some of whom were accused of circumventing US sanctions, including exporting equipment used in the Iranian weapons industry.

As Iran Emerges From Isolation, Israel Is Feeling Cornered
Bloomberg/Tue, June 13, 2023
Early this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a mock wartime meeting of his security cabinet in a bunker. Communities in northern Israel are preparing shelters for a long-term conflict. And the military is working overtime on a new laser system to intercept rockets
Their focus is Iran and its nuclear ambitions.For years, Israel has considered a nuclear-armed Iran to be an existential threat, and directed its energies to confronting it and its regional proxies in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian areas. But much is new in the past few months. Iran has emerged from diplomatic isolation, forging a key military alliance with Russia from which it’s seeking air defenses, restoring diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and pushing its allies to fire missiles at Israel. It is also enriching more and more uranium, including a small amount almost to weapons grade — while denying any plans for making a bomb. All of these developments, along with a political crisis in Israel triggered by Netanyahu’s attempt to overhaul the judiciary, have pushed the government in Jerusalem into a position from which it’s issuing daily warnings and letting everyone know that it would not hesitate to act, even alone, if it felt enough of a threat from Iran.
Don’t Wait
Those who know the country say that while there is an element of public posturing, there is also serious intent. “Iran is hardening its defenses, meaning Israel could lose the option to attack,” said Dennis Ross, a former White House Middle East envoy. “As someone who has worked on this issue and talked to the Israelis for a long time, the one thing I am personally convinced of is they will never allow themselves to lose the option. You don’t wait until it is one minute to midnight.”Israeli officials cite the topic wherever they go. Nir Barkat, Israel’s economy minister, told Bloomberg TV in New York recently, “Iran threatens the world. They want to create a bomb in order to use it. We’re maybe first in line, but we’re not the only one.” But Israel’s ability to deliver a decisive blow is questionable, especially if it acted alone and not alongside the US, which says it wants a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program. Washington and Tehran denied recent reports that they’ve been quietly exploring a new nuclear deal, though Iran said this week the two are close to an agreement on prisoner swaps. Netanyahu rejects the US stance toward Iran, telling Sky News that “diplomacy can only work if it's coupled with a credible military threat.”
Internal Mess
Among experienced Israel watchers, there is skepticism that Netanyahu would strike Iran. Dina Esfandiary, a senior adviser for the Middle East at the International Crisis Group, believes he’s diverting attention from his difficulties at home, especially the widespread outrage over plans to weaken the judiciary. “When everything is a mess internally, the best thing is to reiterate that you have an enemy outside,” she says. But even opponents of Netanyahu say that, on Iran, they back him. “On this, there is no coalition or opposition in Israel,” said Yair Lapid, opposition leader, when he was in New York recently. “Everybody's on the same note.” In private, Israeli officials worry whether they can get the job done without their main ally. And they are concerned that deep divisions within Israeli society — exemplified by this year’s mass protests over the judicial plan — could hinder preparations and give their enemies the impression that they’re more vulnerable. “The Saudi-Iranian deal is helping Iranians feel stronger,” said Jacob Nagel, a former Israeli national security adviser. “The Iranians are giving the money, training, instructions and weapons to push Israel into a multi-front confrontation.”Israel warplanes took out an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and a Syrian one in 2007 — and there’s talk about doing the same with Iran. Israel came close to doing so twice before under Netanyahu. In 2010 his inner security cabinet, backed by the defense establishment, pulled him back, and in 2012 the US talked it down. Today’s security cabinet is more hawkish. The intense preparation, then and now, serves as a messaging tool, to persuade the US and Iran that Israel means business and to slow or stop Iranian uranium enrichment and missile production.
Regional Spillover
A strike on Iran could roil oil markets and turn into a regional conflagration, affecting states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as shipping routes through the Gulf. It could also trigger a massive backlash against Israel, including from Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Hamas. That makes some investors nervous. The Israeli shekel weakened late last month, albeit briefly, after the country’s military chief warned about action against Iran. Hezbollah, a Lebanese group thought to have more than 100,000 missiles, can retaliate to set off a brutal conflict, according to Bradley Bowman, a former US army officer who works for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which backs firmer measures against Iran. “If only a portion of that arsenal were employed against Israel, there is a danger that its defenses could be overwhelmed,” said Bowman. Iran’s strengthening military ties with Russia are also a source of alarm in Israel. Iran has provided drones and, in return, sought Russian help in air defense and missile development. Israel sent high-level officials to Moscow in May asking Russia to refrain. The growing potential for an Israeli strike has unsettled others in the region. Until last year, Saudi Arabia suffered a series of drone and missile attacks on oil and other facilities that were claimed by Iranian-backed Houthi militias in Yemen.
Saudi-Israel Prize
The Saudis saw a China-mediated deal with Iran as a way to “reduce tensions with their neighbors and focus on development,” said Riad Kahwagi founder of INEGMA, a Dubai-based security research group. One positive effect of the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, according to several Israeli officials, is that the US felt threatened by China’s role and stepped up its own efforts to reconcile with Riyadh. That could help Israel with its big goal: diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. Both Israel and Washington consider a Saudi-Israeli deal to be a key prize, potentially bolstering Israeli security and discouraging Iran from any direct attacks. Still, Saudi authorities have said publicly that an independent Palestinian state — which Netanyahu has said is very unlikely to happen anytime soon — is a precondition. In private, they’ve also told the US they want defense and security guarantees, access to top-notch weaponry and help developing their own uranium reserves. For now, Israel is increasingly focused on a possible military confrontation. Since ex-US President Donald Trump pulled out of a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in 2018, Tehran has accelerated its processing of uranium. The UN’s atomic energy watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, recently detected a small amount enriched to 84% levels of purity, slightly below the 90% grade typically used for weapons. In late May, the agency said Iran’s explanation of it being an accidental by-product was sufficient. Netanyahu accused the IAEA of “capitulation” and said Iran was lying. It was yet another example of Israel feeling isolated internationally on an issue that it says it knows best — and fears most.

U.S. Permits Iraq to Release Billions to Iran
FDD/June 13/2023
Latest Developments
The Biden administration has authorized the transfer of $2.76 billion from Iraq to Iran, Reuters reported on June 10. The news comes within days of emerging reports that Washington hopes to trade Iranian funds trapped in foreign accounts for a halt to further nuclear escalation by Tehran. While the United States has issued sanctions waivers to allow Iraq to import electricity from Iran in the past, U.S. sanctions have prevented Tehran from repatriating funds paid into escrow in Baghdad.
Expert Analysis
“There’s enough evidence on the surface to suspect the release of Iraqi funds to Iran is tied in some way to the U.S.-Iran indirect nuclear talks brokered by the Omanis. There doesn’t have to be a formal deal in place for the administration to negotiate an agreement as defined in U.S. law. A sanctions relief waiver tied to a request to halt higher levels of enrichment would constitute willful evasion of mandatory congressional review.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
“Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle must be vigilant in ensuring that the Biden administration does not circumvent their oversight as the White House continues to try to enter an Iran nuclear agreement. Both the House and Senate must leverage all available legislative tools at their disposal to force the administration to be transparent with respect to its Iran policy, which has not been the case.”— Matt Zweig, Senior Director of Policy for FDD Action
Bypassing Congress in A Deal Without a Deal
The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) prohibits the president from issuing statutory sanctions relief for Iran in connection with any broadly defined “agreement” related to Iran’s nuclear program in which the U.S. “commits or otherwise agrees to take action, regardless of the form it takes, whether a political commitment or otherwise, and regardless of whether it is legally binding or not.” Open questions thus remain as to whether Iraq’s provision of sanctions relief to Iran — as enabled by the Biden administration — triggers the statutory requirement to submit any agreement to Congress pursuant to INARA.

Israel disciplines soldiers over blunders that led to fatal Egyptian border attack
JERUSALEM (AP)/Tue, June 13, 2023
The Israeli military said Tuesday that it would discipline three officers over a rare attack on the Egyptian border that killed three Israeli soldiers and exposed a series of mishaps earlier this month. An Egyptian security officer slipped into Israeli territory undetected on June 3 and killed the three Israeli soldiers in two separate shootings in the usually quiet border area. The Israeli military's investigation into the incident found that “a few hours” passed between the two shootings, raising questions about how the Egyptian policeman had not only infiltrated Israel but also managed to spend significant time in Israeli territory without arousing suspicion and mount a surprise attack on a second guard post. The Egyptian policeman easily breached the security gate because it was left unlocked, the Israeli military revealed Tuesday. It said Israeli forces suffered from poor planning and staffing, adding that the military would immediately seal off the southern border, boost the number of soldiers at lookouts and reduce the length of their shifts. Currently, soldiers are expected to remain alert, even in the desert heat, for 12 hours at a time. “This is a severe incident with difficult operational consequences that could be prevented,” said Maj. Gen. Eliezer Toledano, the head of Israel's southern command. The military said it would reprimand two senior officers and transfer a third officer to a different position. Egypt had publicly offered a different version of events, saying that a member of its security forces had crossed the Israeli border while pursuing drug smugglers and had exchanged fire with Israeli troops. Israel and Egypt have been at peace for over 40 years and have strong security cooperation, particularly since the rise of an Islamic State affiliate in Egypt's northern Sinai Peninsula. The incident marked the first deadly exchange of fire along the Israel-Egypt border in over a decade.

Israelis kill Palestinian in raid on West Bank refugee camp -witnesses
Israeli troops raid Nablus in the Israeli-occupied West Bank
NABLUS, West Bank (Reuters)/Tue, June 13, 2023
Israeli forces killed a Palestinian man during a raid on a refugee camp in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday that set off a two-hour gunfight with armed fighters, witnesses and the Palestinian health ministry said. Israeli forces surrounded the house of a wanted fighter in the Balata refugee camp in the northern West Bank city of Nablus, triggering clashes with armed Palestinians, residents said. A 19-year-old was shot by Israeli forces during the fighting, the health ministry said, and eight more Palestinians were treated for gunshot wounds, including one who was hit in the head, the Palestinian Red Crescent said. The military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Nablus operation. "The military bombed the house, they damaged it," Husam Sallaj, the uncle of the wanted man, Issam Sallaj, told Reuters. He said his nephew was wounded but not captured. The wanted man's brother, Suhaib Sullaj, said an Israeli commander rang to demand that Issam turn himself in. "He said, 'we want to bomb the house. If you don't leave, we will kill you, Issam, your mother and sisters, the entire family.'" The family's house was partly destroyed, its walls charred. Furniture, mattresses and children's toys were seen scattered in one of the rooms. A car parked in one of the narrow, graffiti-covered alleys near the targeted house was torched. Hamas, the Islamist group which governs blockaded Gaza, mourned the 19-year-old but did not claim him as a member. It said in a statement that "the occupation's crimes will not stop ongoing resistance across the homeland". Separately, the Israeli military said it had launched a search for suspects after gunmen in a car opened fire on a civilian vehicle before firing on Israeli forces, lightly wounding four soldiers, the military said. Israel's ambulance service said it treated four people for gunshot and shrapnel wounds and transferred them to hospital. Photos circulating on social media showed a car pocked with bullet holes on the windshield and passenger side's door. Violence in the West Bank, among territories Israel occupied in the 1967 Middle East war and which Palestinians want as the core of an independent state, has risen sharply during the past year. Israel has intensified its military raids amid a spate of deadly street attacks by Palestinians in Israeli cities.

Gaza graffiti artists bedeck houses destroyed by Israel in war
GAZA (Reuters)/Mon, June 12, 2023
Graffiti artists in Gaza have painted murals on the remains of houses destroyed in an Israeli missile strike during cross-border fighting in May. On one wall the artists depicted a woman holding her son. On another a boy is painted with tears in his eyes. A third shows a girl, seen through a mirror, combing her hair. Piles of rubble still encircle the houses in the town of Deir al-Balah. Parts of exploded Israeli missiles were placed on tables for display. "Out of suffering, pain, and siege, we derive hope, art, and victory," said artist Hussein Abu Sadeq. "We drew on the rubble so we can get the message through using a brush and colour." Gaza, home to 2.3 million people and ruled by the Islamist group Hamas, is blockaded by Israel and Egypt. In May, Israel launched a campaign against commanders of the Islamic Jihad militant group who it said had planned attacks in Israel. In response, the Iranian-backed group fired more than 1,000 rockets, sending Israelis fleeing into bomb shelters. Israel killed six senior Islamic Jihad commanders and said it destroyed a number of military installations. Fifteen Palestinian civilians, including women and children, were also killed, according to Palestinian health officials. In Israel, two people - an Israeli woman and a Palestinian labourer - were killed by Palestinian rocket fire in Israel. "We collected those remains (of missiles) after the bombardment," said Mohammad Thuraya, an organizer of an exhibition of the art work on Sunday. "One missile destroyed a neighbourhood and destroyed the lives of ten families who used to live here."

22 US soldiers injured in Syria helicopter 'mishap'
Associated Press/13 June 2023
A helicopter accident in northeastern Syria over the weekend left 22 American service members injured, the U.S. military said Tuesday, adding that the cause of the accident was under investigation and that no enemy fire was involved. The military statement said the service members were receiving treatment and 10 were moved to "higher care facilities" outside the region. "A helicopter mishap in northeastern Syria resulted in the injuries of various degrees of 22 U.S. service members," it said. "No enemy fire was reported." A spokesman for the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces did not immediately respond to an Associated Press request for comment. There are at least 900 U.S. forces in Syria on average, along with an undisclosed number of contractors. U.S. special operations forces also move in and out of the country, but are usually in small teams and are not included in the official count. U.S. forces have been in Syria since 2015 to advise and assist the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the fight against the militant Islamic State group. Since the extremist group was defeated in Syria in March 2019, U.S. troops have been trying to prevent any comeback by IS, which swept through Iraq and Syria in 2014, taking control of large swaths of territory. However, IS sleeper cells remain a threat. There are also about 10,000 IS fighters held in detention facilities in Syria and tens of thousands of their family members living in two refugee camps in the country's northeast. Over the past years, U.S. troops have been subjected to attacks carried out by IS members and Iran-backed fighters there. In late March, a drone attack on a U.S. base killed a contractor and wounded five American troops and another contractor. In retaliation, U.S. fighter jets struck several locations around the eastern province of Deir el-Zour, which borders Iraq.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at the time that the strikes were a response to the drone attack as well as a series of recent attacks against U.S.-led coalition forces in Syria by groups affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard.In a related development, Syrian Kurdish-led authorities announced Saturday that hundreds of IS fighters held in prisons around the region will be put on trial after their home countries refused to repatriate them.

Assad Calls for a Strategy Defining Foundations, Objectives of Quartet Talks
Asharq Al Awsat/13 June 2023
Syrian President Bashar Assad called for a joint strategy that defines the foundations and objectives of the quartet negotiations between Syria, Türkiye, Russia and Iran. His remarks came during a meeting with Ali Asghar Khaji, the Iranian deputy foreign minister. A statement by the Syrian Presidency said that Assad underlined the importance of coordination in the quartet meetings and the Astana agreement. He also called for the development of a joint strategy that “determines the foundations and clarifies precisely the headings and objectives upon which the upcoming negotiations are based, whether with regards to the Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory, combating terrorism or other issues.”The Syrian president stressed the importance of setting a time frame and implementation mechanisms for these files, in cooperation with the Russian and Iranian sides, the statement added. Earlier this month, the Syrian Al-Watan newspaper quoted sources in Moscow as saying that the deputy foreign ministers of Syria, Russia, Iran and Türkiye will meet in June to discuss the Syrian crisis. The sources added that the meeting will take place on the sidelines of the Astana track, which is scheduled to take place on June 21. Meanwhile, the Russian President’s special envoy to Syria, Alexander Efimov, affirmed that the meetings of the Syrian-Turkish-Russian-Iranian quartet “are achieving positive results.”In statements to Al-Watan newspaper in its Monday issue, he said that the transition of Damascus and Ankara to direct public contacts, after more than 10 years of severance of relations, was in itself a great success. “It is difficult, within a few weeks or months, to restore what was destroyed over 12 years. A lot of hard work awaits us in this direction...” Efimov added.

Jordanian Army Says It Downs Drone Carrying Drugs from Syria
Asharq Al Awsat/13 June 2023
The Jordanian army said on Tuesday it had downed a drone carrying drugs from Syria into its northern frontier region. The kingdom has blamed pro-Iranian militias, who it says are protected by units within the Syrian army, for smuggling drugs across its borders towards lucrative Gulf markets, Reuters reported. "We are continuing to deal with resolve and force with any threat to our borders and any attempt to destabilize the security of the nation," the army said in a statement.The plane was intercepted and downed on its side of the border, it said.

Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas arrives in China
Agence France Presse/13 June 2023
Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas arrived in Beijing on Tuesday, state media reported, with China expressing readiness to help facilitate Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Abbas will stay until Friday, Beijing has said, on his fifth official visit to the world's second-largest economy. Official Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that Abbas will meet with President Xi Jinping during the trip. The two are expected to "exchange opinions... on the latest developments on the Palestinian arena as well as on regional and international issues of mutual concern", Wafa reported. Abbas will also meet with Premier Li Qiang, the news agency added. The longtime Palestinian leader is an "old and good friend of the Chinese people", foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said last week. "China has always firmly supported the just cause of the Palestinian people to restore their legitimate national rights," he added. Beijing has sought to boost its ties to the Middle East, challenging long-standing US influence there -- efforts that have sparked unease in Washington. President Xi last December visited Saudi Arabia on an Arab outreach trip that also saw him meet with Abbas and pledge to "work for an early, just and durable solution to the Palestinian issue".And during a trip to Riyadh last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saudi Arabia was not being forced to choose between Washington and Beijing, striking a conciliatory tone following tensions with the long-time ally. In an interview with Chinese state news agency Xinhua published this week, Palestinian official Abbas Zaki said China and the Palestinians were "friends closer than brothers". "I am very pleased to see that China has been more involved in Middle East affairs after the China-Arab States Summit last year," he added.

Flag flies over newly liberated village, confirming Ukraine advancing
NESKUCHNE, Ukraine (Reuters)/Tue, June 13, 2023
Reuters journalists gained access to the newly liberated Ukrainian village of Neskuchne on Tuesday, confirming that Ukraine's forces have been advancing in the early phase of a counteroffensive against Russia's invasion. A Reuters team reached the ruined village in southeastern Ukraine days after Kyiv said its forces had pushed out Russian troops. Russia has not officially acknowledged the loss of Neskuchne and several other villages. The yellow and blue Ukrainian flag was fluttering in the breeze over the ruins of a grocery store where it was placed. Not a single building is unscathed in the village, which is little more than a long line of small houses along a tree-lined road. No villagers could be seen in Neskuchne, which had a population of several hundred before Russia's invasion in February 2022. The hamlet was silent except for birdsong and the crump of artillery fire in the distance. "Three days ago Russian forces were still here. We chased them out of Neskuchne. Glory to Ukraine," said Artem, a member of a Ukrainian territorial defence unit who gave no surname. "These are Ukrainian lands."The Reuters crew saw the corpses of three Russian soldiers in the village. One lay in the road where his comrades had left him after he was wounded or killed. "Three days ago we liberated Neskuchne. We saw from a drone how this guy was killed. His comrades were carrying him and then they left him here," Artem said. After seven months of a major Russian offensive that yielded scant gains, Ukraine began its counterassault last week. So far the offensive is still in its early days, with tens of thousands of fresh Ukrainian troops and hundreds of Western armoured vehicles yet to be committed to the fight.

Russian mercenary chief says unsure if his men will continue fighting in Ukraine
LONDON (Reuters)//Tue, June 13, 2023
The head of Russia's powerful mercenary Wagner Group said on Tuesday he was "not sure" if his men would continue to fight in Ukraine amid a bitter standoff with the Defence Ministry after capturing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. It was unclear how serious Yevgeny Prigozhin was being as his fighters have proved themselves to be among Russia's most effective in Ukraine despite suffering huge losses, while any attempt by him to disengage from the war could be seen as treasonous by officials in Moscow. "Regarding the further work of the Wagner private military company in Ukraine, I am not sure that we will work specifically in Ukraine," Prigozhin said in reply to a Danish media query. Wagner fighters have also fought in Africa and the Middle East, where they still have some contracts. After spearheading the months-long battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut in which tens of thousands perished, Prigozhin last month withdrew his men to rest and regroup. Prigozhin has long been at odds with the Defence Ministry over what he says is everything from its poor leadership and tactics to ammunition shortages.
RESISTANCE
The ministry said on Saturday that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, someone whom Prigozhin has repeatedly vilified, had signed an order stipulating that volunteer military units should sign contracts with the ministry before July 1. It cast the move as a step towards greater integration designed to increase the combat potential and effectiveness of such groups within the regular army and spoke of "unified approaches" to military tasks. Prigozhin was quick to say that Wagner would not be signing any contract with the ministry despite it saying that such contracts would give volunteer groups the "necessary legal status" to operate. The ministry has not responded to a request for comment on Prigozhin's refusal to sign up with it. It has also not publicly commented on his scathing criticism of its performance. The Defence Ministry's Zvezda TV channel on Tuesday broadcast a report saying that three unnamed volunteer brigades and four volunteer units had signed contracts with the ministry. Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev said after the signing ceremony that he was sure other volunteer groups would sign the same contract in the course of the next week. The Defence Ministry said on Monday it had also signed a contract with the Akhmat group of Chechen special forces, which has often been called the private army of Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of Russia's Chechnya region.

Russian general killed in missile strike in southern Ukraine
Nataliya Vasilyeva/The Telegraph/Tue, June 13, 2023
A Ukrainian missile strike has killed Russia’s first military general in more than a year of fighting. Maj Gen Sergei Goryachev is said to have died on Monday in an explosion outside the town of Volnovakha, about 25 miles behind the front line. Russian military bloggers suggested he may have been killed by a UK-donated Storm Shadow missile, which has bunker- busting capabilities. A pro-Moscow military blogger published his lengthy obituary on Tuesday. “The war takes away the best of us,” Yuri Kotenok said in a post to his 500,000 followers. “The army has lost one of its best and most efficient military leaders who was hailed as an exceptional professional and a brave man.”Anonymous Ukrainian military bloggers reported the death late on Monday. The Russian defence ministry has not confirmed the reports. A career air force officer, Mr Goryachev entered the war as the commander of Russia’s 5th tank brigade before he was promoted to chief of staff of the 35th army
A Ukrainian missile strike has killed Russia’s first military general in more than a year of fighting. Maj Gen Sergei Goryachev is said to have died on Monday in an explosion outside the town of Volnovakha, about 25 miles behind the front line. Russian military bloggers suggested he may have been killed by a UK-donated Storm Shadow missile, which has bunker- busting capabilities. A pro-Moscow military blogger published his lengthy obituary on Tuesday. “The war takes away the best of us,” Yuri Kotenok said in a post to his 500,000 followers. “The army has lost one of its best and most efficient military leaders who was hailed as an exceptional professional and a brave man.” Anonymous Ukrainian military bloggers reported the death late on Monday. The Russian defence ministry has not confirmed the reports. A career air force officer, Mr Goryachev entered the war as the commander of Russia’s 5th tank brigade before he was promoted to chief of staff of the 35th army. The field army - which in peace time guards Russia’s border with China had been fighting in the Zaporizhzhya region after a spell in northern Ukraine at the beginning of the war. The 52-year old had a lengthy career in the military, serving as head of peacekeeping operations in Moldova’s Transnistria for five years and later as head of Russia’s military base in Tajikistan near the Afghan border. Ukrainian activists blacklisted him well before the invasion for his alleged role in commanding Russian troops in covert operations in eastern Ukraine in 2014-2017. Moscow has denied sending its troops to Ukraine to prop up pro-Russian separatists despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. The general appears to be Russia’s highest-profile casualty in Ukraine’s counter offensive that kicked off last week. He is also the first Russian general to have died in Ukraine since early June last year. Mr Kotenok quoted his sources, saying “the situation is difficult” on the front line for Russian forces defending their positions in Zaporizhzhya. Three generals were killed in the first months of the invasion. Ukraine announced four other Russian generals had been killed but those reports appear to be unsubstantiated. Military analysts say recurrent deaths of senior Russian officers in Ukraine point to a manpower crisis as top commanders typically stay away from front line hostilities.

NATO leader says Ukrainians are making progress and advancing against Russian forces
WASHINGTON (AP)/Tue, June 13, 2023
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told President Joe Biden at an Oval Office meeting on Tuesday that Ukrainians are "making progress” with their counteroffensive, which could bolster their position when there's an opportunity to reach a diplomatic end to the war with Russia. “The support that we are providing together for Ukraine is now making a difference on the battlefield as we speak,” Stoltenberg said. “Because the offensive has launched, and the Ukrainians are making progress, making advances."He added, “It's still early days, but what we do know is that the more land that Ukrainians are able to liberate, the stronger hand they will have at the negotiating table.” Biden said NATO has grown more unified during the Ukraine war and “we’re going to be building on that momentum” when the alliance holds its annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 and 12. The White House meeting, the fourth between the two leaders, occurred at a moment of particular peril and uncertainty for the 31-member military alliance. Ukraine, armed with Western weapons, is in the early stages of a high-stakes counteroffensive against Russia that could significantly reshape a war that began nearly a year and a half ago. NATO wants to continue supporting Kyiv while avoiding being drawn into direct conflict with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Ukraine is suffering setbacks and the loss of tanks and armored vehicles. In addition, no consensus has emerged over who will be NATO's next leader. Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister, plans to step down as secretary general at the end of September. He's held the job since 2014. Last week, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made the case for U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace to replace Stoltenberg. Biden also met with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, another potential contender. NATO has expanded since Russia's invasion of Ukraine with the addition of Finland. Sweden has also sought to join, but Turkey, another member of the alliance, has objected. However, Biden has expressed confidence that the issue will be sorted out and Sweden will become the 32nd country in NATO. The meeting with Stoltenberg was delayed by a day because Biden got a root canal on Monday. The procedure, which was prompted by dental pain that Biden felt over the weekend, also required the president to skip an event with college athletes.
The night before the root canal, “he was up all night in pain,” first lady Jill Biden said at a political fundraiser in New York City on Monday evening.

Putin ponders: Should Russia try to take Kyiv again?
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Tue, June 13, 2023
President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that any further mobilisation would depend on what Russia wanted to achieve in the war in Ukraine, adding that he faced a question only he could answer - should Russia try to take Kyiv again? More than 15 months since Putin sent troops into Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian forces are still battling with artillery, tanks and drones along a 1,000-km (600-mile) front line, though well away from the capital Kyiv. Using the word "war" several times, Putin offered a barrage of warnings to the West, suggesting Russia may have to impose a "sanitary zone" in Ukraine to prevent it attacking Russia and saying Moscow was considering ditching the Black Sea grain deal. Russia, he said, had no need for nationwide martial law and would keep responding to breaches of its red lines. Many in the United States, Putin said, did not want World War Three, though Washington gave the impression it was unafraid of escalation. But his most puzzling remark was about Kyiv, which Russian forces tried - and failed - to capture just hours after Putin ordered troops into Ukraine on February 24 last year. "Should we return there or not? Why am I asking such a rhetorical question?" Putin told 18 Russian war correspondents and bloggers in the Kremlin. "Only I can answer this myself," Putin said. His comments on Kyiv - during several hours of answering questions - were shown on Russian state television. Russian troops were beaten back from Kyiv and eventually withdrew to a swathe of land in Ukraine's east and south which Putin has declared is now part of Russia. Ukraine says it will never rest until every Russian soldier is ejected from its land. Putin last September announced what he said was a "partial mobilisation" of 300,000 reservists, triggering an exodus of at least as many Russian men who sought to dodge the draft by leaving for republics of the former Soviet Union. Asked about another call-up by state TV war correspondent Alexander Sladkov, Putin said: "There is no such need today."
MOBILISATION?
Russia's paramount leader, though, was less than definitive on the topic, saying it depended on what Moscow wanted to achieve and pointing out that some public figures thought Russia needed 1 million or even 2 million additional men in uniform. "It depends on what we want," Putin said. Though Russia now controls about 18% of Ukraine's territory, the war has underscored the fault lines of the once mighty Russian armed forces and the vast human cost of fighting urban battles such as in Bakhmut, a small eastern city one twentieth the area of Kyiv. Putin said the conflict had shown Russia had a lack of high-precision munitions and complex communications equipment. He said Russia had established control over "almost all" of what he casts as "Novorossiya" (New Russia), a Tsarist-era imperial term for a swathe of southern Ukraine which is now used by Russian nationalists. At times using Russian slang, Putin said Russia was not going to change course in Ukraine. Russia's future plans in Ukraine, he said, would be decided once the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which he said began on June 4, was over. Ukraine's offensive has not been successful in any area, Putin said, adding that Ukrainian human losses were 10 times greater than Russia's. Ukraine had lost over 160 of its tanks and 25-30% of the vehicles supplied from abroad, he said, while Russia had lost 54 tanks. Ukraine said it has made gains in the counteroffensive. Reuters could not independently verify statements from either side about the battlefield.
Putin further said Ukraine had deliberately hit the Kakhovka hydro-electric dam on June 6 with U.S.-supplied HIMARS rockets, a step he said had also hindered Kyiv's counteroffensive efforts. Ukraine says Russia blew up the dam, which Russian forces captured early in the war. Putin said Russia needed to fight enemy agents and improve its defences against attacks deep inside its own territory, but that there was no need to follow Ukraine's example and declare martial law. "There is no reason to introduce some kind of special regime or martial law in the country. There is no need for such a thing today."

Russian Mercenary Boss Vows to Stage Mutiny Against ‘Jealous’ Military
Allison Quinn/The Daily Beast/Tue, June 13, 2023
Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has vowed to defy an order from Russia’s Defense Ministry to fall under the regular army’s command—and he now says he’ll take other defectors under his wing to build the mercenary group’s ranks. His comments, perhaps the biggest indication yet of a potential military coup, come after Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed a decree mandating all volunteer fighters to sign a contract with the ministry by July 1. The move is widely seen as a bid to centralize military control and limit Prigozhin’s influence in the war after he spent months airing the dirty laundry of Russian infighting and, most recently, was accused of having his fighters routinely abduct and torture regular Russian troops. But according to Prigozhin, it all boils down to jealousy. Shoigu, he said, “can’t stand anybody who does something better than he does. And that’s why everyone is supposed to lick his boots. Wagner has never done that.” He went on to say the mercenary group was already taking in volunteers who don’t want to answer directly to the Defense Ministry. “Volunteer units are contacting us. We are taking them into our ranks as separate assault detachments and building them into our general command and control system, in which we cover them with artillery, aviation, provide intelligence and everything that is necessary,” he said via his press service. Wagner Boss Takes His Feud With Russia’s Military Brass to Dangerous New Level. Separately, he accused the country’s Defense Ministry of repeatedly attempting to “destroy” the mercenary group. “We’re not just talking about some kind of interference, but about deliberate, physical destruction. Both then and now,” he said, claiming top military brass intentionally failed to inform Wagner of an impending U.S. airstrike in Syria in 2018 that killed several of the group’s mercenaries. More recently, he said, the Defense Ministry “tried to close [Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut] without any ammunition.”Prigozhin claimed he confronted Shoigu about the first incident at an event in the Kremlin in 2018. “I approached him and asked: ‘Can I talk to you about the situation that occurred on February 8 near Deir ez-Zor?’ He turned, calmly and arrogantly replied: ‘You wanted to be a hero? You played the hero. All the heroes are here now, in this hall,’ he said, casting his hand over those in expensive suits. “And you were just out of line.’”Of Russia’s top military brass, he said, “They wore beautiful epaulets, but Wagner won in all countries of the world. This is where the jealousy comes from.”The latest phase in the Prigozhin vs. Shoigu feud comes as ordinary Russians have reportedly shown more interest in the mercenary boss than President Vladimir Putin. The independent outlet Verstka reported Tuesday that in May, Russians searched the internet for information on Prigozhin twice as much as they did for Putin.

Turkey Digs In on Sweden’s NATO Bid as Allies Mount Pressure
Bloomberg/Tue, June 13, 2023
Turkey is unlikely to signal it’s ready to approve Sweden’s bid to join NATO when both sides meet this week, despite the Nordic country’s hopes that a recent strict anti-terror law would persuade Ankara it’s cracking down on Kurdish militants.  Turkey, Sweden and Finland are due to meet Wednesday for further talks as part of a joint format agreed in Madrid last summer. But Ankara still wants Sweden to do more to comply with its conditions to sign off on its membership in time for a summit of the military alliance’s leaders next month, according to people familiar with the matter, who stressed Sweden’s full compliance with the agreement is key for the expansion process to move forward. Turkey says Sweden should fully implement its new anti-terrorism law, which entered into force on June 1, to prevent or disperse anti-Turkey protests there. But there aren’t any provisions in the law that would allow such a step and Turkey didn’t respond to a request for comment. Sweden argues that, by having the new terrorism law in place, it fulfilled all its obligations under the agreement, and says it has a mutual interest with Turkey in coordinating efforts against terrorism and organized crime more closely. The Swedish government on Monday announced a formal decision to extradite a man who claimed to be a supporter of the Kurdish PKK group, while a prosecutor in Stockholm last week brought the first-ever charges related to raising funds for the group. When Finland joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in April, Sweden was left in limbo over its prospects, with both Turkey and Hungary’s ratifications outstanding. NATO allies are urging Turkey to approve Sweden’s bid in time for the summit, saying the country meets all qualifications. Sweden’s accession would clinch NATO’s control of the Baltic Sea and give the alliance the upper hand in the Arctic region — both strategic gateways for Russia — even as Moscow is bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine. In the meantime, as a formal invitee, Sweden has a right to join all NATO meetings, in contrast to Ukraine and Georgia, whose applications have yet to move forward in any meaningful way. Bringing Sweden into the fold would simplify defense planning for the alliance. NATO would benefit not just from Sweden’s combat aircraft, naval prowess and other military assets but also being able to easily shuttle troops or equipment across Nordic territory. But before Sweden can join, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who extended his presidency into a third decade after winning last month’s elections, may need to balance a tough approach with getting US congressional support for Turkey’s purchase of American-made F-16 fighter jets. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a call last week discussed Sweden’s membership and the F-16 sale, which remains in limbo. The terrorism-financing charges were filed in Sweden on Friday against a man who allegedly sought to extort money on behalf of the PKK in January this year. He is accused of attempted extortion, attempted terrorism financing and illegal firearm possession. The preliminary investigation reveals his expressions of support for the PKK as well as his association with an alleged prominent figure in the group’s campaigns to raise funds from Kurds in Europe. Hungary is expected to back Sweden’s membership as soon as Turkey signals it plans to do so, as the country did with Finland’s application.

UK Police Arrest Murder Suspect after Three Found Dead in Nottingham Incident
Asharq Al Awsat/13 June 2023
British police said a man had been arrested on suspicion of murder after three people were found dead on the street in the central English city of Nottingham and three others were in hospital after an attempt to run them over with a van. Police said two people had been found dead on one road in the center of the city just after 4 a.m. (0300 GMT) before officers were alerted to another incident not far away where someone driving a van had tried to run over three people, Reuters said. They are being treated in hospital. Another man was also found dead in a road just outside the city center. "This is an horrific and tragic incident which has claimed the lives of three people," Chief Constable Kate Meynell said. "We believe these three incidents are all linked and we have a man in custody. This investigation is at its early stages and a team of detectives is working to establish exactly what has happened." A 31-year-old was arrested on suspicion of murder and was in police custody. No indication was given of the motive for the incident, but the police statement made no mention of counter-terrorism officers being involved. "It is too early to comment on casualties or the exact nature of the incident," the East Midlands Ambulance Service said. One woman identified as Lynn told BBC TV she had seen a van hit a man and a woman who were left lying in the street. "He went straight into these two people. The woman went on the kerb, the man went up in the air. There was such a bang. I wish I never saw it. It's really shaken me up."
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak thanked the police and emergency services for their response to the shocking incident in Nottingham and said police must be given the time to do their work. "My thoughts are with those injured, and the family and loved ones of those who have lost their lives," he wrote on Twitter. Several major roads were closed and the Nottingham tram network was suspended. Members of the emergency services were visible across the city. Meynell said much of the city would remain sealed off while the investigation continued. "Awful news for our city to wake up to today," Alex Norris, a lawmaker for Nottingham, said on Twitter. "Our community’s thoughts and prayers are with all those affected."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 13-14/2023
True Jihadist Identity of ‘Christian’ Child-Stabber in France Revealed?
Raymond Ibrahim/June 13/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/119080/119080/
A Middle Eastern man who fled the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (“ISIS”) has just come out to insist that he knows the real identity—and real name—of the supposed “Christian” man who recently stabbed several children in a French playground.
Because the assailant had originally given his name to European officials as “Abdul-Masih”—“Slave of Christ” in Arabic—and because he grabbed onto a crucifix around his neck and yelled Jesus’s name during his stabbing spree, French/Western media—far from finding such theatrics before a captive audience all too suspicious—have concluded that he must be Christian, apparently oblivious to the fact that jihad is all about trickery and subterfuge—all about deceptions layered within layers. (In one example, Muslims spent a year getting close to a pastor—including by joining his church, getting baptized, and becoming like “family” to him—when all they really wanted to do is assassinate the Christian.)
Enter Sami Tounsi: On June 11, 2023, he made an Arabic-language video (image above) denouncing the naivety of Western officials, and insisting that the stabber is one of the Islamic terrorists that had operated in Syria, “whom we know all too well, and who have completely ruined our lives.”
After again reiterating that “We who were forced out of our nations due to these savage groups are the people who most know them and how they operate, Tounsi said:
Today I ask of every person who has any connection to Europe’s intelligence and security agencies, if you hear this video, to translate and deliver its information to these agencies. This man’s name is Silwan Majid, from among the takfiri groups that were operating in Syria in the city of al-Hasakah….. This criminal, and thousands like him, are now in Europe, right in the midst of your societies, families, and children.
In fact, in 2015, ISIS itself boasted that it had smuggled “thousands” of clandestine jihadists among the migrants.
Continues Tounsi:
These criminals are present like hidden grenades that can explode whenever any unsuspecting person triggers them. In the future, you will see much worse crimes than this one [child stabbing spree] if you don’t move immediately to capture these terrorist groups.
Tounsi went on to say that the child-stabber was evicted from al-Hasakah sometime between 2013-2014, went to Turkey, and from there to Europe, Sweden first, then France, where he presented himself as a persecuted Christian in an effort to get asylum. When that failed, he decided to avenge himself by stabbing European children while mocking Christianity.
Tounsi also stressed an often overlooked fact: the overwhelming majority of those millions of Muslims that migrated to Europe had no formal papers, meaning they can and do give any name, religion, and backgrounds to European officials.
For the record, I cannot independently verify the information provided by Sami Tounsi, nor ascertain how he gathered it, though the implication is that he personally knew or recognized the child-stabber from al-Hasakah. Lending to Tounsi’s credibility is that his accent is definitely North Syrian, where al-Hasakah is located. His adamant passion while speaking in the video is, moreover, indicative of sincerity.

The rule of law victorious, or justice weaponized?
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/June 13, 2023
It has been obvious for several years that a cluster of legal torpedoes were directed toward Donald Trump. It was only a question of which ones would hit their targets and how much damage they would do. With both Trump and his British alter ego, Boris Johnson, facing potentially career-ending accusations on the same day last week, what does this mean for justice and the rule of law in the Western world?
The sheer number of Trump’s legal challenges is bewildering. The federal criminal indictments contain nearly 40 counts relating to his hoarding of top secret documents. Recordings of him boasting about this include a juicy clip in which he is exuberantly handing round a US “plan of attack” against Iran to guests at his golf club. Other documents related to American’s nuclear program, national strategic vulnerabilities, and plans for military retaliation in the event of attack. Potential prison sentences could add up to 420 years.
These may not ultimately be the most damaging charges he faces: evidence has also been circulated of his efforts to pressure officials to decertify the results of the 2020 presidential election. This year his property company was fined for tax fraud. Then there is the issue of alleged hush-money payments to prostitutes.
In a furious speech after the latest indictment, Trump thundered that he was the victim of a conspiracy: “They’re cheating. They’re crooked. They’re corrupt. These criminals cannot be rewarded. They must be defeated. You have to defeat them. Because in the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you and I’m just standing in their way.” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was hardly less hyperbolic, declaring: “This is going to disrupt this nation...and we're not going to stand for it” — demonstrating the extent to which the Republican Party remains in Trump’s thrall, and is likely to go scorched-earth as these cases progress.
Meanwhile, few expected Britain’s former Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign as an MP so quickly as a result of findings by the House of Commons Privileges Committee that he lied to Parliament over his role in frequent parties and social events while the rest of the country suffered under Covid lockdowns. Johnson quit before the committee’s findings were made public, but he received an advance copy indicating that he would be suspended from Parliament for at least 10 days — triggering a by-election in his constituency that he would almost certainly lose. And so he jumped before he was pushed. His track record as a serial liar had already lost him the trust of Parliament, including most of his own Conservative MPs. Johnson’s bitter, almost Trumpian resignation statement denounced party colleagues on the investigating committee as conducting a “witch hunt.”
The fates of both Trump and are inextricably conjoined, exemplifying the personality-cult populism infecting Western politics. Johnson exploited Brexit as his vehicle to achieving power, in the process delivering some of his most consequential lies about the viability and “benefits” Britain leaving the EU. He and his short-lived successor crashed out of office, leaving the British economy a shattered wreck severed from many of its most important markets. Like Trump, his government was tainted by corruption and cronyism, with senior posts and lucrative Covid contracts awarded to acolytes.
Legal action against Trump, Johnson, Sturgeon and other politicians must be in the service of justice and justice alone, and the public must see that justice is done.
The Conservative elder statesman Lord Heseltine remarked that Johnson’s “basic problem” was that “words are designed to make his audience believe whatever they want to believe. There is no anchor to any discernible truth or sense of integrity.” His own biographer denounced his “inner emptiness … a total absence of moral compass.”
With Labour holding a double-digit lead in the polls, the Conservatives look set for a drubbing in parliamentary elections expected next year. They are already in a state of civil war, with an ascendant far-right loony fringe already nakedly seeking to drag the post-defeat party in a kamikaze trajectory toward all-out cultural warfare. On the left of the British political spectrum, Scotland’s former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has just been arrested by police investigating apparent irregularities in the finances of the Scottish National Party.
A fetid atmosphere of corruption and impunity has clouded numerous Western governments in recent years, and it is entirely welcome if this is decisively addressed, with leaders held to the highest standards. However, that also risks fueling a retaliatory and escalatory exploitation of serious legal measures, weaponized in the toxic cauldron of partisan US politics. Republicans are already pursuing the president’s son, Hunter Biden, with a raft of congressional investigations. As part of this cesspool, a dump of 9,000 images from Hunter’s laptop has been published — the contents of which I cannot bring myself to elaborate on.
In any country, who is there to prevent the justice system from being politicized as a nuclear option against either side’s political opponents? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts at emasculating Israel’s judiciary illustrate how few safeguards there are if a determined and corrupt majority decide that democracy is too democratic.
In the right-wing echo chamber of mendacity and radicalization, Fox News became both perpetrator and victim. Any modest attempts to rein in its diet of lies and propaganda were immediately rejected by disenfranchised audiences, while Fox paid nearly $800 million in compensation for deliberate lies about voting machines in the 2020 presidential election.
This issue of competent and clean leadership is crucial because we are but a few steps away from a Third World War over Ukraine, Taiwan and numerous other sources of tension. Never have we been in greater need of inspiring and farsighted leadership, but never have such qualities been so lacking in the international arena.
Legal action against Trump, Johnson, Sturgeon and other politicians must be in the service of justice and justice alone, and the public must see that justice is done. In a rules-based system, leaders are necessarily beholden to truth and justice. It is in no one’s interest for the law to be weaponized by maverick politicians in the service of their own tawdry ends.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Biden’s tough choices on agreeing a new deal with Iran
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/June 13, 2023
Despite initial denials by both countries, Iran confirmed this week that it engaged in indirect talks with the US in Oman last month over Tehran’s nuclear program. Several Western media reports confirmed that US Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani were in the Omani capital, Muscat, at the same time in early May and that Omani officials acted as intermediaries. Both the US and Iran denied that talks centered on reaching an interim agreement, with Iranian officials insisting on reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. That agreement, which the Trump administration pulled out of in 2018, was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 in July 2015.
According to American reports, the US passed a message to Iran that it would face a severe response if it reached the 90 percent uranium enrichment levels required for use in a nuclear weapon. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has at least 114 kg of uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity. Israel has also warned that it will never allow Iran to come close to the 90 percent enrichment level.
Following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Saudi Arabia last week, which must have focused on threats posed by Iran’s nuclear program, and the leaking of reports regarding possible progress in negotiations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Blinken that Israel would not be bound by any agreement with Iran and that it would take the necessary steps to protect its national security.
On the other hand, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said earlier this week that a deal with the West over the nuclear program is possible, but only if Tehran can keep its nuclear infrastructure intact. Since the US pulled out of the 2015 agreement and imposed sanctions, Iran has installed advanced centrifuges and raised its uranium enrichment levels to more than 60 percent. It has also prevented IAEA monitors from inspecting some facilities and is believed to have built new ones and expanded others.
Previous attempts by the Biden administration and Western partners to engage Iran in a bid to reach a new agreement were unsuccessful. Iran insists on reviving the 2015 agreement, while the West wants to tie the agreement to other issues, such as Tehran’s controversial ballistic missiles program, curbing the regional activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allowing the IAEA to carry out a full investigation of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
For a while, it looked like the Biden administration was no longer interested in pursuing further talks with Iran. But a number of factors have forced it to reengage. Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought Moscow and Tehran closer than ever and Iran is believed to have supplied Russia with advanced drones and is helping the Russians build a drone factory. In return, Tehran may get its hands on a first batch of state-of-the-art Su-35 fighter jets from Moscow as early as this month. And Iran last week unveiled a hypersonic missile it claims can hit Israel in 400 seconds, while outmaneuvering the Iron Dome defense system. The technology to develop such a sophisticated system could only come from Russia or North Korea.
Iran insists on reviving the 2015 agreement, while the West wants to tie the agreement to other issues.
Also, the recent China-mediated deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize ties took the US by surprise. Relations between Riyadh and Washington have gone through some rough periods since President Joe Biden was elected, while the Saudis have adopted an independent foreign policy approach that has seen improved ties with both China and Russia. Feeling its regional influence waning, Washington has made an about-face; seeking to revive ties with Riyadh and sending its top diplomats there.
The thaw in Saudi-Iranian ties has been reflected in the Gulf region and beyond. Earlier this month, the commander of Iran’s naval forces, Shahram Irani, announced that Tehran was looking to form a joint maritime alliance with the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Pakistan and India. Saudi Arabia was also interested in “heading in this direction,” Irani said. The announcement came a few days after the UAE decided to quit the Combined Maritime Forces led by the US.
The change in Washington’s attitude toward talks with Iran underlines its geopolitical concerns, as well as fears that the suspension of the nuclear deal has only played into Tehran’s hands in many ways. US threats of resorting to force against Iran are no longer in sync with regional developments. Its key allies in the region, save for Israel, are now actively talking to Iran, with some, like Egypt, on the verge of restoring ties with Tehran.
These allies are now in favor of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear program issue. This week, the Gulf Cooperation Council issued a statement calling on Iran to commit to working with the IAEA and asking for the involvement of the Gulf states in possible negotiations to meet the bloc’s security concerns.
Interestingly, the US seems to have allowed Iraq to release about $3 billion to Iran in overdue payments — a sign that some of Tehran’s demands are being met. Also, a prisoner exchange is expected to take place between Iran and the US in the coming days, according to Iranian officials.
A deal, whether interim or not, would be good for the region and for the world. But it might not help Biden and the Democrats in the coming election cycle. Both will get a lot of flak from Republican candidates, as well from the current Israeli government. This week, a bipartisan letter from 35 members of Congress called on the European parties to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal to “snapback” sanctions on Iran for noncompliance.
In fact, any agreement reached will almost certainly give former President Donald Trump and other Republican hopefuls the ammunition to tear down the Biden reelection campaign. This is how hard it will be for the White House to decide its next move. Not doing anything carries the risk of Israel and Iran finding themselves in an open war with an unpredictable outcome. Securing a deal would harm Biden’s election chances, while the return of Trump or a Republican hard-liner to the White House might make any new agreement a short-lived one anyway.
• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

Use of water as a weapon of war likely to increase
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/June 13, 2023
The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine last week highlighted the role of water in warfare. The use of water as a weapon has a history stretching back into ancient times and it continues today. As climate change intensifies water scarcity, the value of water is likely to increase, thus incentivizing its further use in conflict.
Damage to water infrastructure can be an accidental consequence of war or an intentional act. For example, the Nova Kakhovka dam might have collapsed due to damage sustained during the conflict combined with a lack of regular maintenance since falling under Russian control, or it might have been used as a weapon, intentionally destroyed to cause massive flooding. Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other. While there is a lack of publicly available evidence to be certain, it appears likely that Russian forces destroyed it in order to flood an area where Ukraine might launch a military offensive.
When water is deployed as a weapon, it can take several forms. From ancient times to today, destroying or poisoning water sources has been a common tactic. Wells have been poisoned in order to complete a siege, weaken opponents or punish a population. Depriving populations or military forces of water is another tool. From the Assyrians to Daesh, combatants have destroyed wells for military purposes. In other cases, canals, rivers or other water sources are diverted. In one recent example, after Russia’s takeover of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked a canal that carried much of Crimea’s water from the Kakhovka reservoir. Russian forces removed the blockage following its 2022 invasion.
Intentionally flooding an area in order to slow a military advance, damage wartime industry or force soldiers or civilians out into the open also has a long history. Last month marked the 80th anniversary of Operation Chastise, also known as the “Dambusters” raid, a British operation during the Second World War intended to destroy three German dams in the Ruhr valley. Using a special type of bomb, the British forces successfully destroyed two of the three dams, causing flooding that killed hundreds of people, while doing less damage to Germany’s industrial capacity than expected. In another of many examples throughout history, Belgian forces intentionally flooded part of the Yser river in order to slow a German advance during the First World War.
Throughout the war between Ukraine and Russia, Russian forces have repeatedly attacked Ukrainian water infrastructure, while Ukraine intentionally flooded some areas to slow Russia’s initial invasion last year. The Nova Kakhovka dam collapse is probably a new addition to the list of such incidents, though on a larger scale than previously seen in this war.
Sometimes, weaponizing water serves both military and political goals. Israel has restricted water resources to Palestinians as part of larger efforts to displace local populations and undermine Palestinian economic development. The Syrian regime repeatedly used water shortages against civilians and combatants during the Syrian civil war. Upstream states can use water — and the implicit threat of cutting or reducing its flow — as leverage when negotiating with downstream states about a wide range of issues. Water can be used as a weapon almost anywhere in the world, but some regions are particularly prone to the weaponization of water.
While history is replete with examples of the strategic and tactical use of water in war and politics, it is unclear whether weaponizing water is often very effective. For example, if Russia destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam, many experts say it is unlikely to significantly undermine Ukraine’s counteroffensive, while it affected both Russian and Ukrainian-held territory and, according to reports, killed some Russian soldiers.
The recent anniversary of the so-called Dambusters raid highlighted analysis that suggests the raid was far less effective in countering Germany’s war efforts than planned, while coming at a significant cost to British forces and resources. While there are examples of using water to successfully achieve military goals, any force that tries to unleash water against an enemy cannot fully control the water and often faces the risk of blowback onto its own soldiers or assets and the risk of missing its intended target.
Water can be used as a weapon almost anywhere in the world, but some regions are particularly prone to the weaponization of water. The Pacific Institute has a list of incidents involving water in conflict that goes back to ancient times. Drawing on the data from 2018 through March 2022, the Middle East and North Africa stands out with the most incidents, followed by the Russia-Ukraine war and then sub-Saharan Africa. It is unsurprising that the world’s most arid region also has the highest number of recent incidents involving water in conflict, and climate change threatens to worsen that record. Efforts to address and adapt to climate change should take the problem of water in conflict seriously.
More broadly, the international community needs to place greater emphasis on addressing the role of water in conflict. Under the additional protocols to the Geneva Conventions, attacks on water infrastructure such as dams can constitute a war crime, particularly if they cause significant harm to civilians. As with all forms of international law, however, much depends on how the international community responds and enforces consequences for such violations. The tragic results of the Nova Kakhovka dam collapse should bring greater attention to the role that weaponizing water is likely to play in the future.
• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica.
Twitter: @KBAresearch