English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 11/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For
today
Those who love me will keep my word, and my Father
will love them, and we will come to them and make our home with them
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 14/21-27/:”They who have
my commandments and keep them are those who love me; and those who love me
will be loved by my Father, and I will love them and reveal myself to
them.’Judas (not Iscariot) said to him, ‘Lord, how is it that you will
reveal yourself to us, and not to the world?’Jesus answered him, ‘Those who
love me will keep my word, and my Father will love them, and we will come to
them and make our home with them. Whoever does not love me does not keep my
words; and the word that you hear is not mine, but is from the Father who
sent me. ‘I have said these things to you while I am still with you. But the
Advocate, the Holy Spirit, whom the Father will send in my name, will teach
you everything, and remind you of all that I have said to you. Peace I leave
with you; my peace I give to you. I do not give to you as the world gives.
Do not let your hearts be troubled, and do not let them be afraid.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 10-11/2023
Saint Rafqa/Saint Of The Day Face
Book Page
Michel Aoun's visit to Damascus./Etienne Saqr- Abu Arz/June 10, 2023
FPM denies remarks attributed to Bassil on Baroud, Azour
Lebanon's Presidential Election: Are Amal-Hezbollah Capable of Disrupting
the Quorum?
Culture Minister: Our candidate preserves Lebanon's identity and unity
Al-Bizri to LBCI: We are coordinating to ensure a third option in the
Presidential election session
Tyre Coast Nature Reserve Director affirms southern coast is a habitat for
sea turtles
Are Public Sector Salaries at Risk Amid Quorum Concerns?
Mikati calls for cabinet session on Tuesday
Ibrahim says he sees no president on the horizon, purpose of nominating
Azour is to block Franjieh
Hamieh: Iraqi Transport Minister informed Speaker Berri of Iraq's invitation
to Lebanon to be part of "development path"
Taymour Jumblatt: For a rational approach to entitlements, review of
consensual, inclusive options
Boushkian commissions Chantal Akl to assume duties of Industry Ministry
Director General
Mekdad, Abdollahian discuss bilateral relations, latest developments
Salam in Riyadh heading Lebanon's delegation to largest Chinese-Arab
business gathering
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on June 10-11/2023
Iran's Raisi and France's Macron
discuss promotion of ties
US says Iran helping Russia build drone factory east of Moscow
France warns Iran on drone deliveries to Russia
Israelis march against government's contentious plan to overhaul judiciary
Russians are cheering defeats of Western-made tanks. Their optimism may
prove premature.
Zelensky says counteroffensive 'taking place' as Trudeau visits Kyiv
Sudan ceasefire brings rare respite for Khartoum civilians
Latest Sudan truce begins amid civilian skepticism
Turkiye investigates fatal explosion at munitions factory which killed
5/Investigation launched into cause of explosion
Egypt begins requiring visas for all Sudanese after detecting ‘unlawful
activities’: MFA spokesman
UK politics reels from shock of ex-PM Johnson's departure
How Trump indictment could impact White House race
Former Wall Street exec named head of Turkey central bank
Saudi Crown Prince threatened to damage US economy – media
Somali security forces end Al Shabaab attack on Mogadishu beach hotel
Colombia plane crash: Four children found alive in Amazon after 40 days
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published on June 10-11/2023
No Joke': The Baffling Silence by The Biden Administration, UN and EU
on Iran's Human Rights Abuses/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/June 10,
2023
Biden’s Iran Gamble/A Risky New Strategy to Keep Tehran From Going
Nuclear/Eric Brewer and Henry Rome/Foreigin Affairs/June 10/2023
Morocco leads the way in building a sustainable future/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab
News/June 10, 2023
Full steam ahead for both Democrats and the Republicans/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab
News/June 10, 2023
Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 10-11/2023
Saint Rafqa
Saint Of The Day Face Book Page
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116856/life-summary-of-saint-rafca-the-blind-mystic-of-lebanon-the-lily-of-himlaya/
Rafqa El-Rayess was born on June 29th 1832, in Himlaya, one of the northern
Metn villages. She was the only child to her parents Mourad Saber el-Chobok
el-Rayess and Rafqa Gemayel.
On July 7th 1832 she was baptized and christened Boutroussieh. Her mother
died when she was seven.
Her father sent her to serve at Assad Badawi’s in Damascus in 1843. Rafqa
came back after four years; her father was remarried to a woman named Kafa
who wanted her to marry her brother, while her aunt wanted her to marry her
son. In order to resolve the conflict, Rafqa chose to enter the monastic
life.
In Our Lady of Delivrance monastery in Bekfaya and in front of her Icon,
Rafqa asked God for help and hears His voice saying: ’’You’re becoming a
nun’’.
Rafqa wore the initiation Robe on St Joseph day on March 19th 1861.
On March 19th 1862, Rafqa presented the monastic vows in the monastery of
Ghazir. She became a nun in the Congregation of St Mary.
Rafqa stayed in Ghazir’s clericalism, amongst the clergy were Patriarch
Elias Houwayek and Archbishop Boutros el-Zoughbi. She studied arabic,
calligraphy and calculation.
Rafqa was sent to Deir el-Kamar to teach catechism in 1860. During the
bloody event that took place in the Mont of Lebanon back then, Rafqa saw a
lot of people getting killed and she saved a child by hiding him under her
robe.
In 1864, she was transferred to Maad village where she stayed seven years
and established a school to teach girls.
Crisis arises in the Congregation of St Mary in 1871, Rafqa prayed and saw
in her dream St Anthony the Great, father of the monks, saying to her: ‘’
Become a nun in the Lebanese Order’’.
In the monastery of St. Simon el-Qam in Aito, Rafqa wore the Initiation Robe
on July 12th 1871 and then presented her vows on August 25th 1872.
In October 1885, Rafqa asked God to make her a part of his divine pains.
Pain started in her head then in her eyes, an American doctor pulled her
right eye by accident while doing a surgery. Doctors considered treatments
useless as her left eye was affected too.
She suffered unbearable pains for 12 years in patience, silence and prayer.
In 1897, she was sent to the new monastery of St. Jospeh al-Dahr in Jrabta,
Batroun.
In 1899, she became blind. Her right hip and leg were disjointed, her
shoulder dislocated.
On March 23rd 1914, Rafqa rested in peace.
Pope John Paul II declared her:
Venerated on February 11th 1982.
Beatified on November 17th 1985.
Role model in the adoration of the Eucharist in the Jubilee year 2000.
Saint for the whole church on June 10th 2001.
Michel Aoun's visit to Damascus.
Etienne Saqr- Abu Arz/June 10, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/118997/%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b5%d9%82%d8%b1-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%a3%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b4%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%b9%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%84%d8%af%d9%85%d8%b4/
President Aoun inaugurated the pilgrimage season to Syria, and some believed
that the goals of the visit were to discuss urgent national files:
1- The file of the displaced Syrians, which has become disturbing the
Lebanese and threatens the Lebanese entity in its existence.
2- The file of the Lebanese who have been missing for decades in Syrian
prisons, which is still stuck in the corridors of Mezze and the torture
cellars in Saydnaya, Palmyra and other Syrian death camps.
3- The file of demarcating the sea and land borders with Syria, and closing
the illegal crossings that drain the Lebanese economy...
However, according to informed sources, nothing of the kind happened.
Rather, the "son-in-law" was the focus of the conversation regarding the
issue of his problems with "Hezbollah" and his choice to support Azour's
candidacy for the presidency.
Lon Live Lebanon.
Abu Arz
FPM denies remarks attributed to Bassil on Baroud,
Azour
Naharnet/June 10, 2023
The Free Patriotic Movement has denied remarks attributed to FPM chief
Jebran Bassil by al-Jadeed TV as “totally baseless” and “misleading.”“The
channel is carrying out a distortion campaign for known and exposed
objectives,” the FPM said. Al-Jadeed had reported overnight that Bassil had
told a number of FPM lawmakers that “his presidential choice in the second
stage is ex-minister Ziad Baroud.”The channel also said that Bassil “had
told FPM legislators that he would drop ex-minister Jihaz Azour’s nomination
if they get a pledge from Hezbollah to give up Marada Movement chief
Suleiman Franjieh.”
Lebanon's Presidential Election: Are Amal-Hezbollah Capable of Disrupting
the Quorum?
LBCI/June 10, 2023
The Lebanese presidential election set for Wednesday teeters on uncertainty
as the Parliament grapples with electing a new president. Both Sleiman
Frangieh and Jihad Azour are in the running, but there are signals
suggesting that the quorum could be lost, either in the first or second
round.
In Lebanon's political landscape, the opposition parties and the Free
Patriotic Movement collectively wield a significant portion of parliamentary
votes. They have the power to disrupt the quorum if they decide it is
necessary. But how strong is the support behind Frangieh? Do his backers
secure one-third of the Parliament—43 MPs—to potentially disrupt the session
in its first or second round by exiting the voting hall? Frangieh's backing
team is composed of 30 MPs from the Amal Movement and Hezbollah blocs,
including Speaker Nabih Berri. This faction is further fortified by the four
MPs of the independent national bloc, considered as Frangieh's allies. It
also includes the five deputies from the national consensus bloc, and MPs
Jihad Samad, Haider Nasser, George Bushikian, and Jamil El Sayyed. In total,
43 MPs back Frangieh and could destabilize the session. Now the question is,
will the Amal Movement and Hezbollah duo risk entering the session with this
"bare minimum" number, or will they attempt to broaden their base by
attracting MPs from other parties? The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Tashnaq)
deputies have yet to settle their stance, which will be taken on the eve of
the session. Nonetheless, Tashnaq acknowledges the importance of seriously
considering any candidate's received votes, especially if they reach an
absolute majority. On the other hand, MP Karim Kabbara told LBCI that his
position is firm, and he will not participate in disrupting the quorum of
any electoral session. The Change bloc deputies and the independent deputies
are fundamentally opposed to the principle of disrupting the quorum. In
conclusion, the outcome of Wednesday's session remains uncertain by all
standards. The true situation will only be revealed after the parliamentary
votes are counted.
Culture Minister: Our candidate preserves Lebanon's
identity and unity
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Lebanon's Caretaker Minister of Culture, Mohammad Mortada, confirmed that
June 14th marks the electoral session, where presidential candidates will
present themselves, including one of their own. These statements were
delivered during the opening ceremony of Tyre's summer activities in 2023.
He stated, "Our candidate is very serious and highly qualified to preserve
the Lebanese formula and the constitution, and to safeguard the resistance,
one of the most important pillars of our entity, against Israeli aggression
and ambitions." He added, "Our candidate is qualified not only to preserve
coexistence but also to protect the Lebanese formula and the entity itself
and to counter various divisive projects […] We are waiting to see what will
be presented during the session."
Al-Bizri to LBCI: We are coordinating to ensure a third
option in the Presidential election session
LBCI/June 10, 2023
MP Abdel Rahman al-Bizri confirmed that a group of deputies is looking for a
third option for the presidency who best represents its choices. He
indicated that "if we find him, we can vote for him, and the nomination may
be from the first or second round, and there may also be voting with a
slogan or a specific phrase." Al-Bizri explained, in an interview on LBCI's
"Naharkom Said" TV show, that they are coordinating among themselves to
ensure the third option because they are convinced that the presidential
election session may not produce a president, considering that there must be
a "balanced voice" calling for moderation and change. He saw that the head
of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, and the former minister, Jihad
Azour, are paying the price for the tensions, asking: "What guarantees that
the "divorce" that took place between the two largest Christian blocs will
not be repeated?" He stressed the need to find a formula that takes into
account the common denominators of all parties in the country and enjoys the
reassurance of the Lebanese people and Arab countries, refusing to impose a
president on the Christians. Regarding Army Commander General Joseph Aoun,
al-Bizri considered him a "comfortable" figure who had a crucial role in
preserving the military institution, but his election faces many obstacles,
the most important of which is the constitutional amendment that needs 86
deputies.
Tyre Coast Nature Reserve Director affirms southern
coast is a habitat for sea turtles
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Tyre Coast Nature Reserve Director Ali Badreddine announced the discovery of
dozens of nests belonging to a Loggerhead Sea Turtle along the sandy beaches
stretching from Adousiyeh Beach to Abbasieh Beach, as well as within the
various sections of Tyre Coast Nature Reserve, all the way to Mansouri.
He pointed out that the scientific monitoring team affiliated with Tyre
Coast Nature Reserve launched a campaign to monitor the sandy beaches. In a
statement, he added that since the beginning of the nesting season, the team
had been tasked with monitoring the nests, protecting them, and creating a
suitable environment until the hatchlings safely emerged without being
exposed to any risks. Badreddine stated, "The increase in the number of
discovered nests confirms that the southern coast serves as a sanctuary for
turtles, and it is crucial to maintain its cleanliness and remove any
pollutants that threaten marine life."
He reiterated the call to beachgoers "not to leave behind any waste that
affects the cleanliness of the beaches." He also urged horseback riders "to
adhere to the guidelines and avoid bringing horses onto the sandy beaches
during the nesting season, as they directly contribute to the destruction of
the nests, which poses a danger to the eggs laid by turtles in the sand,
depriving them of reproduction and increasing their numbers for the sake of
biodiversity in the sea."
Are Public Sector Salaries at Risk Amid Quorum Concerns?
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Roughly twenty days ago, a month before due, Lebanon's Ministry of Finance
made a candid announcement from the Grand Serail: there would be no salaries
if the Parliament did not approve the appropriations. This decision has
implications for approximately 310,000 state employees, including retirees
and military personnel, whose salaries hinge on a preoccupied Parliament
tackling a presidential session on June 14. Two weeks following the Ministry
of Finance's warning, it reiterated its position, confirming that nothing
has changed and the salary problem is stuck pending a legislative session.
Will the Speaker of the Parliament call a legislative session to solve the
salary issue after the government approves it? Sources from Ain el-Tineh
confirmed that the priority is the presidency, and no other issue will be
discussed before Wednesday. So, what happens after the presidential session?
The same sources hinted that the Speaker of the Parliament will not call a
legislative session until it's assured that the legislative quorum—half plus
one—is met. This leads us back to the constitutional issue regarding the
Parliament's ability to exercise its legislative powers, a problem that was
put under the spotlight after the session concerning the extension for
municipalities. Among those who oppose attending legislative sessions before
the election of a president, opposition deputies, some independents, and the
change-makers boycotted after 46 deputies signed a petition refusing to
attend any session not dedicated to electing a president of the republic.
However, the Free Patriotic Movement attended the session, considering that
the country cannot be paralyzed with the local authorities' operations at a
halt. What about the salary session? Will the goal of the session justify
its convening this time? The Strong Republic bloc, the Renewal bloc, and the
Change deputies will not attend the session. The Kataeb deputies and other
deputies, despite their clear stance of not attending any legislative
parliamentary session before electing a president, have not yet decided on
their position regarding the salary session. The Free Patriotic Movement's
stance remains inaccessible. With around 20 days left until Eid al-Adha,
will public sector employees have to celebrate without their salaries? The
question remains open as Lebanon continues to navigate a multifaceted
crisis.
Mikati calls for cabinet session on Tuesday
NNA/June 10, 2023
Prime Minister Najib Mikati called today for a cabinet meeting in the Grand
Serail at 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday, June 6, 2023, to discuss the issue of the
displaced Syrians and the Ministry of Justice's request to approve
concluding a consensual agreement with French lawyers to assist in the case
submitted by the French state in the file of Kosakova and her comrades.
Ibrahim says he sees no president on the horizon,
purpose of nominating Azour is to block Franjieh
NNA/June 10, 2023
Major General Abbas Ibrahim indicated that he "does not see a president of
the republic on the horizon, and whoever nominated former minister Sleiman
Franjieh will not back down," adding that "the other team's nomination of
former minister Jihad Azour was for the purpose of blocking Franjieh."Major
General Ibrahim confirmed, during his meeting today with the Vice-President
of the National Media Council and the Supervisor of the "Diaspora" Website,
Ibrahim Awad, that "it would have been better for Azour not to get involved
in all this confusion." On the issue of the return of the displaced Syrians
to their homes, being the first to have initiated this and facilitated the
return of thousands to their country before this process stopped, Ibrahim
deemed that the return has not yet matured and requires significant internal
and external efforts. "It is also important that the requirements for the
return of Syrians to their land be available, in terms of money and shelter,
and this entails tremendous aid that Damascus must obtain," he said.
Finally, Ibrahim concluded: "How can Lebanon recover and rise if Syria does
not recover?!"
Hamieh: Iraqi Transport Minister informed Speaker Berri of Iraq's invitation
to Lebanon to be part of "development path"
NNA/June 10, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport, Ali Hamieh, indicated in
an issued statement today, that the meeting with House Speaker Nabih Berri
came as a conclusion to the round of meetings and tours with the Iraqi
Minister of Transport and the accompanying delegation during their visit to
Beirut. He added that they briefed the Speaker on the outcomne of their
talks, especially with regard to the "path of development" and Iraq's call
for Lebanon to be part of it, through branching inside Syria, where they
looked into the possibility of making the ports of Beirut and Tripoli its
sea outlet.
Taymour Jumblatt: For a rational approach to entitlements, review of
consensual, inclusive options
NNA/June 10, 2023
Head of the "Democratic Gathering", MP Taymour Jumblatt, stressed the need
for a rational approach to the current entitlements, while avoiding the
language of challenge and the tense positions related to it. In a statement
on the sidelines of his Saturday meetings at Al-Mukhtara Palace, Jumblatt
said: "Acceptance of the logic of democratic action based on the foundations
of dialogue alone guarantees the continuation of the search for consensual
and inclusive options that serve the interest of the country and its
future."
Boushkian commissions Chantal Akl to assume duties of Industry Ministry
Director General
NNA/June 10, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Industry, MP George Boushkian, issued Saturday
Decision 42/1 by which he commissioned Acting Head of Technical Affairs and
Industrial Services Authority - Head of the Cities and Industrial Zones
Department in the Industrial Licensing Authority at the Ministry of
Industry, Engineer Chantal Abdel-Nour Akl, to assume the duties of Director
General at the Industry Ministry, alongside her main functions.
Mekdad, Abdollahian discuss bilateral relations, latest developments
NNA/June 10, 2023
Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Faisal Al-Mekdad,
discussed today with his Iranian counterpart, Hussein Amir-Abdollahian,
during a phone call, bilateral relations between the two countries and
positive developments on the Arab and regional arenas. During the call, they
also discussed a number of issues of common concern and the importance of
focusing on implementing the agreements between both countries, which were
discussed and signed during Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi's visit to
Syria. The depth of the relations between the two friendly countries was
also emphasized during the phone call.
Salam in Riyadh heading Lebanon's delegation to largest
Chinese-Arab business gathering
NNA/June 10, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade, Amin Salam, arrived in Riyadh on
Saturday, where he is representing Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the head
of Lebanon's delegation to the largest Arab-Chinese business gathering held
under the auspices of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz.
Salam was received by the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Investment,
Mohammed bin Ahmed Al Hasna, at King Khalid Airport (Riyadh).
Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 10-11/2023
Iran's Raisi and France's Macron
discuss promotion of ties
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in
a lengthy phone call on Saturday discussed ways to promote ties, state media
reported. "The 2 sides discussed how to promote relations esp about ongoing
negotiations & regional developments," IRNA state news agency quoted Raisi's
deputy chief of staff Mohammad Jamshidi as saying in a tweet in English.
"They agreed on a roadmap for engagement," Jamshidi added, saying that the
call lasted 90 minutes. A 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers
gave the Islamic republic relief from international sanctions in return for
curbs on its nuclear programme. But in 2018 the United States withdrew
unilaterally from the deal and reimposed sanctions, prompting Tehran to
suspend implementing its own commitments to restrict nuclear activity
including uranium enrichment. Efforts to revive the deal have been fruitless
so far. Saturday's call comes after the UN nuclear watchdog reported
progress in Iran's cooperation with the agency, resulting in the closure of
the file on the discovery of nuclear material at an undeclared site, an
issue which has long exacerbated relations between the two. However, the
International Atomic Energy Agency has also noted that Iran has
significantly increased its stockpile of enriched uranium in recent months.
The IAEA said that as of May 13, Iran's total stockpile of enriched uranium
was estimated at 4,744.5 kilograms (10,459 pounds), much higher than the
limit in the 2015 deal of 202.8 kilos. Iran has always denied any ambition
to develop a nuclear weapons capability, insisting that its activities are
entirely peaceful.
US says Iran helping Russia build drone factory east
of Moscow
Associated Press/June 10, 2023
Iran is providing Russia with materials to build a drone manufacturing plant
east of Moscow as the Kremlin looks to lock in a steady supply of weaponry
for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, according to a U.S. intelligence
finding released by the White House. National Security Council spokesman
John Kirby said U.S. intelligence officials believe a plant in Russia's
Alabuga special economic zone could be operational early next year. The
White House also released satellite imagery taken in April of the industrial
location, several hundred miles east of Moscow, where it believes the plant
"will probably be built."
President Joe Biden's administration publicly stated in December that it
believed Tehran and Moscow were considering standing up a drone assembly
line in Russia for the Ukraine war. The new intelligence suggests that the
project, in the Yelabuga region of Tatarstan, has moved beyond conception.
Iran has said it provided drones to Russia before the start of the war but
not since. Kirby said that U.S. officials also have determined that Iran
continues to supply the Russian military with one-way attack drones made in
Iran: The drones are shipped via the Caspian Sea, from Amirabad in Iran to
Makhachkala, Russia, and then are used by Russian forces against Ukraine. As
of May, Russia had received hundreds of one-way attack drones, as well as
drone production-related equipment, from Iran, according to the White House.
"This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to
Iran's neighbors, and to the international community," Kirby said. "We are
continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these
activities including by sharing this with the public — and we are prepared
to do more." The Biden administration on Friday issued an advisory meant to
help businesses and other governments put in place measures to ensure they
are not inadvertently contributing to Iran's drone program. The notice from
the departments of Commerce, State, Justice and Treasury said it was
"critical that private industry be aware of its legal obligations" to abide
by U.S. export controls and sanctions.
The United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom in recent
months all have issued rules designed to cut off the flow of drone
components to Russia and Iran. The Biden administration has repeatedly
publicized intelligence findings that detail how Iran is assisting the
Russian invasion.
The persistent drip of intelligence findings from the administration is
intended to detail what U.S. officials say is a deepening defense
partnership between Russia and Iran. It's also part of a broader
administration effort to spotlight Moscow's prosecution of its war in
Ukraine in hopes of further promoting global isolation of Russia. The White
House last month said Russia was looking to buy additional advanced attack
drones from Iran after using up most of the 400 drones it had previously
purchased from Tehran. The Biden administration last year first publicized
satellite imagery and intelligence findings that it said indicated Iran sold
hundreds of attack drones to Russia. For months, officials have said the
United States believed Iran was considering selling hundreds of ballistic
missiles to Russia, but White House officials have said they do not have
evidence a deal was consummated. The White House has noted that Iran also
has weapons flowing its way from Russia. Iran is seeking to purchase
additional military equipment from Russia, including attack helicopters,
radars and YAK-130 combat trainer aircraft, according to the White House. In
April, Iran announced that it had finalized a deal to buy Su-35 fighter jets
from Russia.
France warns Iran on drone deliveries to Russia
PARIS (Reuters)/Sat, June 10, 2023
French President Emmanuel Macron warned Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi on
Saturday about the consequences of delivering drones to Russia, Macron's
office said on Saturday. In a phone call, Macron urged Iran to "immediately
cease" the support it is giving Russia in the war against Ukraine. Macron
also expressed concerns about the trajectory of the Iranian nuclear
programme, the statement said. Britain, France, Germany, the United States
and Ukraine say the supply of Iranian-made drones to Russia violates a 2015
U.N. Security Council resolution enshrining the Iran nuclear deal. The White
House said on Friday that Russia appeared to be deepening its defense
cooperation with Iran and had received hundreds of one-way attack drones
that it is using to strike Ukraine.
Israelis march against government's contentious plan
to overhaul judiciary
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP)/Sat, June 10, 2023
Israelis continued protests Saturday for the 23rd week against plans by
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government to overhaul the
judiciary in the country. The mass demonstrations started in January shortly
after the government, made up of ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox
religious parties, was sworn in. Gaining momentum and seeing large turnouts
of more than 200,00 demonstrators at times, protest organizers have said
they will not give up until the government cancels the proposed legal
changes rather than delaying them. The protests have become a weekly
occasion to express on current affairs in the country. In the coastal
metropolis of Tel Aviv, where the main protest with tens of thousands is
held, protesters held a giant banner reading “Type of citizen: dead,” a
reference to surging crimes among Israel’s Arab communities. Other
protesters marched behind an effigy of a chained-up Netanyahu amid a sea of
Israel’s blue-and-white flags. The plan would weaken the judiciary and limit
judicial oversight on laws and government decisions, what critics say poses
a direct threat to civil rights and the rights of minorities and
marginalized groups. They also warn it will grant the government
unrestrained power and upend the country’s system of checks and balances.
The government says the judicial plan is meant to rein in what it says is an
overly interventionist Supreme Court and restore power to elected
legislators.
Russians are cheering defeats of Western-made tanks. Their optimism may
prove premature.
Sam Fellman/Business Insider/Sat, June 10, 2023
A terrifying video captures a Russian drone's attack on a German-made
Leopard tank below. Russians cheered these defeats. Some believe they are
signs Ukraine's counter-offensive is a failure. They may yet be
disappointed. Ukraine's counter-offensive has just begun. Scenes from the
frontlines of the Ukraine War have recently looked dire for Ukraine's forces
as their counteroffensive gets underway, including pile-ups of damaged or
wrecked tanks and fighting vehicles. One terrifying video captures a Russian
loitering drone's attack on a German-made Leopard 2 tank below. The hit is
real but the full damage isn't shown and couldn't be independently assessed.
The Leopard is among the more advanced weapons Ukraine has received from its
Western backers to aid in retaking its land from Russian invaders. Russians
celebrated. "Some prominent Russian ultranationalists claimed that damaged
or destroyed Western-provided equipment indicated that Ukrainian forces
failed to launch a large-scale counteroffensive," notes the Friday
assessment of the Institute for the Study of War think tank, which closely
tracks the conflict and the pro-Russian bloggers who shape their public's
understanding of it. Accounts and images of the hard fighting are emerging
from the Zaporizhia region, where Ukraine is using some of its most powerful
weapons to try to punch through Russian lines and is confronting so-called
dragon's teeth positions to stop tanks, minefields, relentless artillery,
electronic jamming, drones, and even airstrikes. It is not clear if the dire
scenes are coming from the fulcrum of Ukraine's counteroffensive, where
casualties are likely to be highest as they attempt to press through what
could be up to 20 miles of Russia's mutually reinforcing positions. As
Insider's Ryan Pickrell has reported, it is in these maelstroms where even
the best vehicles can be destroyed and troops killed. "Another Russian
milblogger claimed that a counteroffensive can only last up to 10 to 15
days, implying that Ukrainian counteroffensive will soon culminate,"
according to ISW. That optimism may be misplaced. The counter-offensive is
about six days in. Ukraine is advancing in its east and has made limited
gains in Zaporizhia — gains that could be built upon in successive waves or
supported via other assaults. Russia has parried some of Ukraine's attacks,
but will these prove the main effort? Only time will tell.
Zelensky says counteroffensive 'taking place' as
Trudeau visits Kyiv
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday that counteroffensive
action was underway as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Kyiv
and accused Russia over flooding from the breached Kakhovka dam.
"Counteroffensive and defensive actions are taking place in Ukraine: at
which stage I will not talk in detail," Zelensky said at a joint press
conference in Kyiv with Trudeau. Zelensky commented after Russian President
Vladimir Putin claimed that Kyiv's long-expected counteroffensive was
already failing. Russia has reported thwarting Ukrainian attacks in the east
and south that some observers have interpreted as the start of a large-scale
counteroffensive. "It's interesting what Putin said about our
counteroffensive. It is important that Russia always feels this: that they
do not have long left, in my opinion," Zelensky said. He added that he was
in daily touch with military commanders including armed forces chief Valery
Zaluzhny and "everyone is positive now -- tell that to Putin!"Trudeau, 51,
and Zelensky, 45, hugged each other and used each other's first names as the
Canadian leader made his second unannounced visit to Kyiv since full-scale
war broke out in February last year. Canada, which hosts a large Ukrainian
diaspora, has been one of Kyiv's key allies since the Russian invasion. It
has provided Ukraine with significant military aid, trained more than 36,000
soldiers and adopted sanctions against Moscow.
'Direct consequence'
Trudeau denounced Russia's role in the destruction of the Russian-controlled
Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine on Tuesday. The flooding from the breached
dam has forced thousands to flee their homes and sparked fears of
humanitarian and environmental disasters. Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing
up the dam, while Moscow says Kyiv fired on it. Pledging 10 million Canadian
dollars (US $7.5 million) in new funding for flood relief, Trudeau said the
dam's destruction was the "direct consequence" of Russia's invasion. "There
is absolutely no doubt in our minds that the destruction of the dam was a
direct consequence of Russia's decision to invade a peaceful neighbour,"
Trudeau said. He added he was certain that Moscow would be held accountable
for its actions in Ukraine. "Russia's war in Ukraine has devastated
infrastructure, has destroyed families and taken lives and is causing
economic, food, energy shortages around the world. Russia is responsible and
will be held to account."
Pilot training
The Canadian leader said he would provide 500 million Canadian dollars in
new funding for military assistance to Ukraine. He also pledged Canada would
be part of the multinational efforts to train Ukraine's fighter pilots.
Ottawa will also provide 10,000 ammunition rounds and 288 AIM-7 missiles to
be repurposed in the United States and used in air defence systems. Earlier
in the day Trudeau placed flowers by a wall of remembrance displaying the
faces of soldiers killed in combat while a military orchestra played. He
also visited an open-air exhibition featuring destroyed Russian military
vehicles. Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Oleksandr Polishchuk handed
Trudeau a box that he said held shrapnel from a rocket that fell on the
Black Sea port city of Odesa. He said the gift was intended to remind
Trudeau of Ukraine's suffering from Russian strikes. Three people were
killed early Saturday in a fire sparked by debris from shot-down Russian
drones in the Odesa region. A group of Ukrainian soldiers who had received
training in Canada spoke with Trudeau. One of them, Colonel Petro Ostapchuk,
told reporters the troops received specialised training for snipers,
engineers and young commanders. "It's a great privilege to meet the prime
minister," he said.
Sudan ceasefire brings rare respite for Khartoum
civilians
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Khartoum residents reported a welcome lull in fighting in Sudan's capital on
Saturday after a 24-hour ceasefire between two warring generals took effect,
but few believed it would hold.the war started, this is the first time hours
go by and we don't hear the sound of guns," said Hamed Ibrahim, adding that
"today was completely different" in his east Khartoum neighbourhood.
Fighting has raged in the country since mid-April, when army chief Abdel
Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who commands
the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), turned on each other.
Multiple truces have been agreed and broken since the conflict flared, and
Washington slapped sanctions on both rival generals after the last attempt
collapsed at the end of May. The air strikes and artillery bombardments that
have rocked greater Khartoum almost daily subsided at least temporarily,
allowing trapped civilians to venture outdoors to buy desperately needed
supplies. "Today we have witnessed a total calm," said Othman Hamed, a
resident of the capital's sister city Omdurman, just across the Nile. In one
Khartoum market, people were seen scrambling to stock up on fruit and other
basic goods. "The truce is a chance for us to get some food supplies after
we lived on rationed quantities in recent days," said one of the shoppers,
Mohamad Radwan. Hajar Youssef said she had gone out in search of an open
pharmacy to buy insulin for her mother, who has diabetes. "Unfortunately, I
did not find one."
Many people expressed disappointment that the promised ceasefire was so
limited in scope. "A one-day truce is much less than we aspire for," said
Khartoum North resident Mahmud Bashir. "We look forward to an end to this
damned war."
Fleeing Khartoum –
Bus station employee Ali Issa said many people were using the truce to flee
the capital for the relative safety of the provinces. "Today, numbers...
have risen significantly, maybe even doubled," he said. In the conflict's
other main battleground, the western region of Darfur, there was no
immediate word on observance of the ceasefire. Upwards of 1,800 people have
been killed in the fighting, according to the Armed Conflict Location and
Event Data Project. Nearly two million people have been displaced, including
476,000 who have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, the United Nations
says. Announcing the latest truce on Friday, US and Saudi mediators warned
the warring parties they would break off their diplomatic efforts unless
they honoured their commitments this time. "Should the parties fail to
observe the 24-hour ceasefire, facilitators will be compelled to consider
adjourning" talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah which have been suspended
since late last month, they said. Sudan specialist Aly Verjee said he saw
little reason why this truce should be any better than its predecessors.
"Unfortunately, the incentives have not changed for either party, so it's
hard to see that a truce with the same underlying assumptions, especially
one of such short duration, will see a substantially different result," said
Verjee, a researcher at Sweden's University of Gothenburg.
- 'Confidence building' -
The Saudi and US mediators said they "share the frustration of the Sudanese
people about the uneven implementation of previous ceasefires". Both the
army and the paramilitary RSF have declared their commitment to the latest
truce, which they said could support humanitarian efforts, while cautioning
against violations by their opponents. "If observed, the 24-hour ceasefire
will provide an important opportunity... for the parties to undertake
confidence-building measures which could permit resumption of the Jeddah
talks," the US-Saudi statement said. Friday's ceasefire announcement came a
day after Sudanese authorities loyal to Burhan declared UN envoy Volker
Perthes "persona non grata", accusing him of taking sides. UN chief Antonio
Guterres later expressed support for Perthes, who is currently in the
Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa for talks. Speaking through his spokesman,
Guterres said "the doctrine of persona non grata is not applicable to or in
respect of United Nations personnel."The fighting has sidelined Perthes's
efforts to revive Sudan's transition to civilian rule, which was derailed by
a 2021 coup by the two generals before they fell out. It has also
complicated the coordination of international efforts to deliver emergency
relief to the 25 million civilians that the United Nations estimates are in
need.
Latest Sudan truce begins amid civilian skepticism
AFP/June 10, 2023
KHARTOUM: A 24-hour cease-fire took effect Saturday between Sudan’s warring
generals but, with fears running high it will collapse like its
predecessors, US and Saudi mediators warn they may break off mediation
efforts. With the fighting now about to enter a third month, civilians
trapped in the battlegrounds in greater Khartoum and the flashpoint western
region of Darfur are desperate for relief from the bloodshed but deeply
skeptical about the sincerity of the generals. Multiple truces have been
agreed and broken since fighting erupted on April 15, and Washington had
slapped sanctions on both rival generals after the last attempt collapsed at
the end of May. The nationwide truce announced by US and Saudi mediators on
Friday took effect at 6:00 a.m. “Should the parties fail to observe the
24-hour cease-fire, facilitators will be compelled to consider adjourning”
talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah which have been suspended since late last
month, the mediators said. Civilians voiced disappointment that the promised
cease-fire was so limited in scope. “A one-day truce is much less than we
aspire for,” said Khartoum North resident Mahmud Bashir. “We look forward to
an end to this damned war.”
Issam Mohamed Omar said he wanted an agreement that required fighters of the
paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) who had occupied his home in
Khartoum to leave so that he can return there from his temporary lodgings
across the Nile in Omdurman. “For me, a truce that doesn’t kick the RSF out
of the home they kicked (me) out of three weeks ago, doesn’t mean anything
to me,” he said. Sudan specialist Aly Verjee said he saw little reason why
this truce should be honored any more than its predecessors. “Unfortunately,
the incentives have not changed for either party, so it’s hard to see that a
truce with the same underlying assumptions, especially one of such short
duration, will see a substantially different result, said Verjee, a
researcher at Sweden’s University of Gothenburg. Upwards of 1,800 people
have been killed in the fighting, according to the Armed Conflict Location
and Event Data Project.
Nearly two million people have been displaced, including 476,000 who have
sought refuge in neighboring countries, the United Nations says. The Saudi
and US mediators said they “share the frustration of the Sudanese people
about the uneven implementation of previous cease-fires.”
The army, led by Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, said it has “agreed to the
proposal,” adding in a statement it “declares its commitment to the
cease-fire.” The paramilitary RSF, commanded by Burhan’s former deputy
Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, said: “We affirm our full commitment to the
cease-fire.”
Both statements said the truce could support humanitarian efforts, while
cautioning against violations by their opponents. “If observed, the 24-hour
cease-fire will provide an important opportunity... for the parties to
undertake confidence-building measures which could permit resumption of the
Jeddah talks,” the US-Saudi statement said. Friday’s announcement came a day
after Sudanese authorities loyal to Burhan declared UN envoy Volker Perthes
“persona non grata,” accusing him of taking sides. UN chief Antonio Guterres
later expressed support for Perthes, who is currently in the Ethiopian
capital Addis Ababa for a series of talks. Speaking through his spokesman,
Guterres said “the doctrine of persona non grata is not applicable to or in
respect of United Nations personnel” and is contrary to Khartoum’s
obligations under the UN charter. The fighting has sidelined Perthes’s
efforts to revive Sudan’s transition to civilian rule, which was derailed by
a 2021 coup by the two generals before they fell out. It has also
complicated the coordination of international efforts to deliver emergency
relief to the 25 million civilians that the United Nations estimates are in
need. Alfonso Verdu Perez, outgoing head of the International Committee of
the Red Cross delegation in Sudan, warned on Friday that “health care may
collapse at any moment.”“The needs are immense and much more remains to be
done” in both Khartoum and Darfur, he told reporters in Geneva.
Turkiye investigates fatal explosion at munitions
factory which killed 5/Investigation launched into cause of explosion
June 10/2023
ANKARA: Five people were killed in an explosion at a military factory in
Ankara’s Elmadag district early on Saturday. The bodies of the victims have
been recovered and judicial and administrative investigations into the cause
of the explosion are underway. Vasip Sahin, the governor of Ankara province,
said initial investigations suggest the blast was caused by a chemical
reaction. According to the Turkish Ministry of Defense, the explosion
occurred in the manufacturing unit of the Machinery and Chemical Industry
Corporation (MKE), a subsidiary of the ministry. Fatal accidents have
previously occurred at the factory, which produces rockets and explosives
for the defense and interior ministries. In 2018, Health and Safety Labor
Watch (ISIG), a civil watchdog, issued a report about workplace fatalities
at the factory after an explosion on May 24 that year left one worker dead
and six others injured. The official investigation blamed the explosion on a
technical fault, ruling out sabotage. ISIG criticized the factory for not
having sufficient workplace security measures in place. On May 20, 2013, an
explosion at the factory left two workers dead. Petrol-Is, Turkiye’s
petroleum, chemical and rubber workers union, has long demanded improved
working conditions at the same factory. Workers staged a three-day strike in
November 2012 to draw the government’s attention to the situation. In July
2013, Petrol-Is claimed there were serious issues with the factory, that its
technological infrastructure had not been modernized, and that more
explosions could occur. Work at the factory was temporarily halted at that
time so improvements could be made.
Egypt begins requiring visas for all Sudanese after
detecting ‘unlawful activities’: MFA spokesman
Reuters/June 10, 2023
CAIRO: Egypt instituted a new policy requiring all Sudanese entering the
country to obtain visas prior to entry, after detecting “unlawful
activities” including the issuance of fraudulent visas, foreign ministry
spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid told Reuters.
The decision is a reversal of a longstanding exemption for children, women
and elderly men. More than 200,000 Sudanese have entered Egypt since
fighting erupted in April, Abu Zeid said.
UK politics reels from shock of ex-PM Johnson's
departure
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Former British prime minister Boris Johnson's angry departure from
parliament over Covid lockdown-breaking parties sparked fevered speculation
Saturday over his and the current government's future, with allies and
enemies trading barbs. Johnson announced he was leaving as a member of
parliament on Friday, claiming he had been forced out in a stitch-up by his
political opponents. One of Johnson’s allies quit earlier Friday, while
another resigned on Saturday, triggering three by-elections for a government
languishing in the polls and heaping pressure on current Prime Minister
Rishi Sunak.
The 58-year-old Johnson has been under investigation by a cross-party
committee about whether he deliberately lied to parliament over parties when
he was in office. In evidence earlier this year, he insisted he had not. But
as the committee prepares to make public its findings, he said they had
contacted him "making it clear... they are determined to use the proceedings
against me to drive me out of parliament". The Privileges Committee, which
has a majority of MPs from his own Conservative party, has powers to impose
sanctions for misleading parliament, including suspension. By quitting,
Johnson avoids the consequences of a humiliating fight to remain an MP in
his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency in northwest London where he
holds a slim majority of just over 7,000. He denounced the committee,
chaired by veteran opposition Labour MP Harriet Harman, as a "kangaroo
court". "It is very sad to be leaving Parliament -- at least for now -- but
above all I am bewildered and appalled that I can be forced out,
anti-democratically... with such egregious bias," he said. He claimed the
committee's report, which has not been published, was "riddled with
inaccuracies and reeks of prejudice", adding he had "no formal ability to
challenge anything they say". Their "purpose from the beginning has been to
find me guilty, regardless of the facts", he said. Responding to the
resignation, the Privileges Committee said Johnson "impugned the integrity
of the House by his statement".
- 'Good riddance' –
Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries also quit as an MP on Friday, while fellow
supporter Nigel Adams announced on Saturday that he was leaving, meaning
current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whom Johnson partly blames for his
downfall, faces three daunting election tests. Johnson’s ability to generate
strong feelings of admiration or hate was reflected in the reaction to his
shock announcement. The Daily Mirror likened him to "a criminal who refuses
to come to court for his sentencing."Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner
said the public -- battling a cost-of-living crisis -- had had enough of the
"never-ending Tory soap opera" while her opposite number with the smaller
Liberal Democrats, Daisy Cooper, said it was "good riddance". But Johnson's
supporters rallied behind him, lauding his achievements in pushing through
Brexit and galvanising support for Ukraine. Conservative-leaning tabloid The
Sun hailed his "unique magnetism and historic achievements" which "dwarf
those of the pygmies who set out to expel him as an MP and, appallingly,
have succeeded".
- Revenge –
There was, however, widespread agreement that Johnson will remain a looming
presence and a problem for Sunak. "He may have resigned as MP but he made
very clear in his statement that he does not see this as the end of his
political career," the Times wrote. The BBC added that "the ghost of Boris
Johnson haunts Rishi Sunak. It is the last thing the prime minister needs".
Johnson led the Tories to a thumping 80-seat majority in the December 2019
general election on a promise to "get Brexit done". That allowed him to
railroad through parliament his divorce deal with the European Union,
unblocking years of political paralysis. But he was undone by his handling
of the Covid pandemic, "Partygate" and a succession of other scandals that
led to a ministerial rebellion in July last year. He quit as prime minister
and left office in September last year, though rumours persisted that he
wanted another shot at the top job.
Sunak, who was one of Johnson's top team who quit, has been trying to steady
the ship since becoming prime minister in October, after the turbulent
tenure of his former boss and the short-lived premiership of Liz Truss.
Johnson's resignation will likely be seen as his revenge on Sunak, whose
Tories are well down in the polls with a general election looming next year.
"When I left office last year the government was only a handful of points
behind in the polls. That gap has now massively widened," Johnson said in
his letter, lashing out at Sunak. Johnson became an MP in 2001 until 2008,
then quit to serve two four-year terms as London's mayor. He became an MP
again in 2015, going on to be foreign secretary under Theresa May.
How Trump indictment could impact White House race
Agence France Presse/June 10, 2023
The latest twist in Donald Trump's attritional war with U.S. law
enforcement, as with so much else in the former president's story, throws
the United States into unprecedented territory. Facing multiple federal
charges over his hoarding of government secrets, the mercurial Republican
presents the country with the possibility of a winning candidate moving into
the White House while under indictment -- or running the government from a
jail cell. The defiant billionaire has dismissed the notion that he would
ever drop out of his party's primary contest, reverting instead to a favored
tactic of accusing his "corrupt" political adversaries of election
interference. "It likely won't sway undecided voters but it will galvanize
Trump supporters who might be wavering or looking to a candidate with less
baggage," Matt Shoemaker, a national security analyst and former
intelligence officer, told AFP. Prosecutors in both the federal documents
case and the state-level financial fraud probe targeting Trump in New York
will hope to have him face justice before the country goes to the polls in
17 months. But there is no guarantee of either case wrapping up that quickly
and Trump also faces federal and state-level probes into his efforts to
subvert the 2020 election. He would likely torpedo any outstanding federal
prosecutions were he reelected, by attempting to pardon himself -- an
unprecedented scenario that would almost certainly spark a constitutional
crisis. But he would have little influence over state-level cases and his
more immediate worry is the damage his legal woes could do to his campaign
to win the Republican nomination in the first place.
- Going for the jugular? -
The latest indictment allows Trump's primary challengers -- Florida Governor
Ron DeSantis, former vice president Mike Pence and others -- to level the
criticism that the runaway frontrunner is unfit for office. But they run the
risk of alienating Trump's loyal base, whose support has only grown more
fervent since the Manhattan indictment. As a result, many rivals have
rallied to Trump's side, perhaps hoping to keep their powder dry until he is
finally taken out of the running by further indictments expected in the
coming months. Trump is under federal investigation over his role in the
January 6, 2021 US Capitol insurrection and media reports suggest
racketeering and conspiracy charges are set to drop in Georgia in August
over the tycoon's campaign to overturn the election there. "They are hoping
Trump is eventually knocked out of the race by a series of indictments,
including those concerning January 6 and the attempt to overturn the
election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry
Sabato."That's it. That's their strategy... They won't do anything. Go for
the jugular? Trump's teeth will be in their jugular before they can do the
same to him."Prosecutors on Friday said Trump had been charged with almost
40 counts filed under multiple charges, including illegal retention of
government secrets, obstruction of justice and conspiracy.
- 'Serious crime' -
In a recent YouGov poll only half of respondents said it was a "serious
crime" to falsify business records to conceal hush money payments to a porn
star -- the case that he faces in Manhattan. But two-thirds said the same
about removing classified government secrets from the White House and
obstructing efforts to retrieve them. The figures are 28 percent and 42
percent respectively among Republicans -- a gap that suggests Trump's latest
scandal could mark a turning point in his primary campaign. DeSantis -- who
has been polling a distant second to Trump -- has exercised restraint in
comments over his rival's legal woes but the rhetorical hand grenades lobbed
between the camps have become more bellicose in recent weeks. Meanwhile
Chris Christie, a political knife-fighter who has indicated he'll take on
Trump more directly than the rest of the pack, has jumped into the race
since the Manhattan indictment. "DeSantis would most benefit from Trump
dropping out of the race but he seems to have calculated that they have many
of the same potential voters so doesn't want to alienate them," Shana
Gadarian, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told AFP.
"It may take someone like... Christie to shake up that narrative," she
added. "Christie's candidacy is about bringing the mainstream back to the
party and he may see the benefit of attracting former Republicans who were
turned off by Trump's presidency."
Former Wall Street exec named head of Turkey central
bank
LBCI/June 10, 2023
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appointed former Wall Street
executive Hafize Gaye Erkan as central bank governor on Friday, signalling a
possible shift from his unconventional policies against soaring inflation.
Erkan -- a former chief executive of US real estate finance firm Greystone,
co-CEO of First Republic Bank and managing director at Goldman Sachs -- will
be the first woman to head the central bank. She takes over from Sahap
Kavcioglu, who lowered rates even though central banks worldwide have done
the opposite to fight inflation. Her appointment was published in the
official gazette on Friday. Under Kavcioglu's watch, the bank's policy rate
was decreased to 8.5 percent. It had been at 19 percent in 2021. The central
bank "replaces its puppet banker," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at
Swissquote Bank, said in a note. She suggested that the new governor would
likely return the bank toward a more conventional monetary policy that would
require rate hikes. The analyst also expects diminishing foreign exchange
market interventions "which will first lead to a further lira depreciation
to catch up a year-and-a-half coma -- an expensive coma." The bank is due to
make a rate decision on June 22. Erdogan, who was re-elected to a third term
in office last month, already signalled a shift on Saturday when he unveiled
a new cabinet with Mehmet Simsek, a former Merrill Lynch economist, as
finance minister. Simsek -- who worked as finance minister and deputy prime
minister in the past ruling AKP governments -- is known to oppose Erdogan's
unconventional policies of lowering interest rates to fight inflation.
Turkey's inflation rate dropped below 40 percent in May for the first time
in 16 months. Independent economists believe it is much higher, above 100
percent. Simsek welcomed the appointment as an "outstanding choice" while
Turkish media have for days talked of Erkan as the "brilliant Turk" or
"genius." "Her strong academic credentials and extensive experience in
international financial markets mean that she is well positioned to guide
Turkey through challenging economic times," Simsek tweeted.
'Purged' central bank economists
Analysts say investors are less interested in how talented the new economic
team is than in their ability to resist pressure from Erdogan, who once
called high rates "the mother and father of all evil". "Simsek & Erkan will
be judged on monetary policy moves, inflation and lira," emerging markets
economist Timothy Ash said on Twitter. The Turkish currency was down around
1 percent against the dollar on Friday, trading over 23 lira per dollar
since Wednesday. One of Erkan's main challenges this year will be to repair
the working atmosphere at the central bank, according to Erik Meyersson,
chief emerging markets strategist. "Too many bright economists and
bureaucrats were purged, reassigned, demoted, ostracized, and there's a
talent reserve that she should look to tap into. But would they want to
return?" he tweeted. Erdogan in the past sacked central bank governors after
disagreements over interest rate policy, in a move that unsettled investors.
After taking office, Simsek said Turkey had "no choice but to return to
rational ground" -- a sign of turning away from the low-rate policy.
Following the lira's latest plunge, he stated his commitment to rules-based
policymaking.
"While there are no short cuts or quick fixes, rest assured that our
experience, knowledge & dedication will help us overcome potential
impediments ahead," he said on Twitter. "Our immediate priority is to
strengthen our team and design a credible program."
- US career -
Saudi Crown Prince threatened to damage US economy –
media
RT/June 10, 2023
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman privately threatened to harm the American
economy after President Joe Biden warned Saudi Arabia of “consequences” for
agreeing an oil production cut with Russia, the Washington Post has
reported, citing leaked material. The Biden administration had said it would
re-evaluate relations with the kingdom following a decision by Riyadh to
slash crude production against the wishes of the US. The Crown Prince, who
is widely referred to as MBS, warned that he would not deal with the US
administration anymore if Biden penalized Saudi Arabia. He also promised
“major economic consequences for Washington,” the Post reported on Thursday.
The threat was contained in a classified document that was leaked on a
Discord server, but it was not clear whether the remark was part of
intercepted communications or a message sent privately to the US.
Biden made his dissatisfaction with Riyadh clear last October after the
OPEC+ group of major oil producers including Russia agreed to cut production
by two million barrels a day. Washington was working to punish Moscow with
sanctions on its oil trade over the conflict in Ukraine. “There’s going to
be some consequences for what they’ve done with Russia,” the US president
said in an interview with CNN at the time, without specifying any possible
measures. On the campaign trail before his election, Biden vowed to make
Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over the Crown Prince’s alleged role in the 2018
murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which Riyadh blamed on
rogue agents. This threat never materialized, with White House insiders
indicating that the Biden administration had opted against jeopardizing
bilateral relations. Under a decades-old arrangement, the US provides
security to Saudi Arabia, and in exchange retains access to its oil, which
the kingdom trades for dollars, propping it up as a global currency. A
number of top US officials recently traveled to Saudi Arabia, including
Secretary of State Antony Blinken. These relations contrast with the
reportedly poor personal chemistry between Biden and MBS, who have not met
since last July. The 37-year-old Saudi Crown Prince, who is responsible for
the day-to-day affairs of the kingdom in lieu of his father, King Salman,
reportedly mocks Biden in private, making fun of his gaffes and mental
lapses. Critics of the US president have accused him of caving in to Saudi
pressure. --- RT
Somali security forces end Al Shabaab attack on
Mogadishu beach hotel
NNA/June 10, 2023
The rebels, affiliated with al Qaeda, have been waging an insurgency against
the internationally backed federal government for more than 15 years and
have often targeted hotels, which tend to host high-ranking Somali and
foreign officials.
The security forces "shot and killed" rebels who carried out "the desperate
terrorist attack on the Pearl Beach... in Mogadishu," SNTV reported on
Saturday.
It added that security forces had rescued "many civilians from inside the
hotel" and "shot and killed" those responsible.
Colombia plane crash: Four children found alive in Amazon after 40 days
BBC/June 10, 2023
Four children have been found alive more than a month after their plane
crashed in Colombia's Amazon jungle, the country's president has said. The
siblings, aged 13, nine, four and a one-year-old baby, were on board the
plane with their mother, a pilot and a co-pilot when it crashed on 1 May.
Their mother and the other adults on board the plane died. President Gustavo
Petro said finding the children after weeks of searching was "a joy for the
whole country". He called it a "magical day", adding: "They were alone, they
themselves achieved an example of total survival which will remain in
history.
"These children are today the children of peace and the children of
Colombia."Mr Petro shared a photograph of several members of the military
and Indigenous community tending to the siblings, who had been missing for
40 days. He said the children were receiving medical attention - and that he
had spoken to their grandfather, who told him "the mother jungle returned
them". The children have since been flown to Colombia's capital Bogota,
where ambulances were waiting to take them to hospital for further medical
treatment. The Cessna 206 aircraft the children and their mother had been
travelling on before the crash was flying from Araracuara, in Amazonas
province, to San José del Guaviare, when it issued a mayday alert due to
engine failure. The bodies of the three adults who had been with them
were found at the crash site by the army. Preliminary information from the
civil aviation authority suggested the children escaped the wreckage and
wandered into the rainforest to find help, Reuters news agency reported. A
massive search began and in May, rescuers recovered items left behind by the
children, including a child's drinking bottle, a pair of scissors, a hair
tie and a makeshift shelter. Small footprints were also discovered, which
led search teams to believe they had survived the collision and were alive
in the rainforest, which is home to jaguars, snakes and other predators. The
children belong to the Huitoto indigenous group and members of their
community hoped that their knowledge of fruits and jungle survival skills
would give them a better chance of surviving. Indigenous people joined the
search operation and helicopters broadcasted a message from the children's
grandmother, recorded in the Huitoto language, urging them to stop moving to
make them easier to locate. Colombia's president came under criticism last
month when a tweet published on his account announced that the children had
been found. He erased the tweet the next day saying that the information -
which his office had been given by Colombia's child welfare agency - could
not be confirmed. ---
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 10-11/2023
No Joke': The Baffling Silence by The Biden Administration,
UN and EU on Iran's Human Rights Abuses
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/June 10, 2023
[J]ust a few days after the regime executed two young men, Yousef Mehrad and
Sadrollah Fazeli Zare, for "blasphemy," Iran was rewarded by being appointed
chair of the United Nations Human Rights Council 2023 Social Forum, as well as
being handsomely compensated by the European Union.
"Iran human rights role 'like granting Bin Laden a Nobel Peace Prize'." — The
Telegraph.
As if to underscore this triumph, right after the UN appointment, Iran's regime
on May 19 proceeded to execute three more men -- Majid Kazemi, Saleh Mirhashemi
and Saeed Yaghoubi – for having participated in anti-regime protests.
"[Iranian] Authorities Execute Over 60 People in Past 2 Weeks." — Human Rights
Watch, May 12, 2023.
"The Iranian authorities' dramatic escalation of executions in recent weeks is a
serious violation of the right to life and should bring international
condemnation... Since late April, the Iranian authorities have executed at least
60 people, including an Iranian-Swedish national on alleged terror-related
charges. Many were executed after unfair trials or for charges, such as drug
offenses as well and two executions for 'blasphemy,' that under international
law should never result in the death penalty." — Human Rights Watch, May 12,
2023.
So, Germany, which preaches about human rights and its "feminist foreign
policy", has actually increased its business with Iran....
"We believe it is time to hold the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran to
account for its crimes.... We urge your nations to stand with the Iranian people
in their quest for change and to take decisive steps against the current regime.
This includes blacklisting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and holding regime
officials accountable for their crimes against humanity." — Letter signed May
23, 2023 by former Vice President Mike Pence and 107 other former world leaders.
Fox News; May 23, 2023.
It is abhorrent and unacceptable that the EU and the UN keep propping up a
regime that is a world leader in executions and violations of human rights --
and that will not hesitate to use its nuclear weapons capability as well as the
threat of it.
Just days after Iran was rewarded by being appointed chair of the United Nations
Human Rights Council 2023 Social Forum, the regime on May 19 executed three more
men for having participated in anti-regime protests. Pictured: A public
execution Mashhad, Iran on December 12, 2022. (Photo by Mizan News/AFP via Getty
Images)
Not only have the Biden Administration, the EU, and the UN have been silent in
the face of the Iranian regime's increasing human rights violations, but just a
few days after the regime executed two young men, Yousef Mehrad and Sadrollah
Fazeli Zare, for "blasphemy," Iran was rewarded by being appointed chair of the
United Nations Human Rights Council 2023 Social Forum, as well as being
handsomely compensated by the European Union.
The grotesque move prompted The Telegraph to headline, "Iran human rights role
'like granting Bin Laden a Nobel Peace Prize.'"
As if to underscore this triumph, right after the UN appointment, Iran's regime
on May 19 proceeded to execute three more men -- Majid Kazemi, Saleh Mirhashemi
and Saeed Yaghoubi – for having participated in anti-regime protests.
"The world should be enraged over #Iran's executions of #MajidKazemi, #SaeedYaghoubi
& #SalehMirhashemi," the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee tweeted.
"The regime may believe the world isn't watching as it terrorizes citizens into
silence. We all must support those who stand by the Iranian people in the face
of this brutality."
The suppression and execution of political prisoners and those who protest
against the ruling mullahs of Iran has once again been on the rise. "Authorities
Execute Over 60 People in Past 2 Weeks," Human Rights Watch wrote.
"The Iranian authorities' dramatic escalation of executions in recent weeks is a
serious violation of the right to life and should bring international
condemnation... Since late April, the Iranian authorities have executed at least
60 people, including an Iranian-Swedish national on alleged terror-related
charges. Many were executed after unfair trials or for charges, such as drug
offenses as well and two executions for 'blasphemy,' that under international
law should never result in the death penalty."
Tens of thousands of people have signed a petition to Secretary General of the
United Nations António Guterres to remove the Iranian regime from chairing the
U.N. Human Rights Council Forum. The petition states:
"No Joke: The Islamic Republic of Iran has just been appointed Chair of the
United Nations Human Rights Council 2023 Social Forum. This year's theme is
technology and promotion of human rights; Iran's regime just hanged Yousef
Mehrad and Sadrollah Fazeli Zare for using social media to criticize religion.
Expel the Ayatollah's murderous regime!"
"I am at a loss to understand what has happened to the UN," one person commented
under the petition. "They seem to have completely lost touch with reality."
The European Union's charter stresses:
"Human rights are at the heart of EU relations with other countries and regions.
The European Union is based on a strong commitment to promoting and protecting
human rights, democracy and the rule of law worldwide."
Some of Iran's major trading partners are, in fact, members of the European
Union. According to Mehr News Agency:
"Iran and the European Union's 27 member states traded €4.36 billion worth of
goods during the first 10 months of 2022, registering a 14.28% rise compared
with last year's corresponding period... Germany was the top trading partner of
Iran in the EU region during the period, as the two countries exchanged over
€1.6 billion worth of goods, 15.44% more than in a similar period of the year
before. Italy came next with €555.39 million worth of trade with Iran to
register an 11.14% year-on-year rise.... the Netherlands with €351.94 million
(down 10.76%) and Spain with €296.06 million (up 13.12%) were Iran's other major
European trade partners."
So, Germany, which preaches about human rights and its "feminist foreign
policy," has actually increased its business with Iran, even as the mullahs are
brutally crushing women who are fighting tyranny and risking their lives to have
freedom.
Fox News reported on May 23:
Former Vice President Mike Pence and 107 other former world leaders on Tuesday
signed a letter to President Joe Biden and his counterparts in Canada, the
United Kingdom, and Europe calling on the West to adopt a tougher approach to
Iran and support Iranian anti-government protesters demanding regime change.
"We believe it is time to hold the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran to
account for its crimes," the letter states. "We urge your nations to stand with
the Iranian people in their quest for change and to take decisive steps against
the current regime. This includes blacklisting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)
and holding regime officials accountable for their crimes against humanity."
It is abhorrent and unacceptable that the EU and the UN keep propping up a
regime that is a world leader in executions and violations of human rights --
and that will not hesitate to use its nuclear weapons capability as well as the
threat of it.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Biden’s Iran Gamble/A Risky New Strategy to Keep Tehran
From Going Nuclear
Eric Brewer and Henry Rome/Foreigin Affairs/June 10/2023
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/bidens-iran-gamble
After more than two years of trying and failing to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear
deal, the Biden administration appears to have concluded that the agreement is
beyond resuscitation. In March 2022 and again in September of last year, Tehran
balked at restoring the pact, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,
and instead made new demands it likely knew Western governments could not meet.
Since then, Iran has brutally suppressed antigovernment protests at home and
provided military aid to Russia, sapping all remaining enthusiasm for restoring
the JCPOA in Western capitals. “It is dead,” U.S. President Joe Biden finally
declared in November.
While the negotiations floundered, Iran’s nuclear program advanced in
unprecedented and, in some cases, irreversible ways. Since U.S. President Donald
Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and especially over the past two
years, Iran has reached important nuclear milestones. It has stockpiled hundreds
of pounds of highly enriched uranium and installed thousands of advanced
centrifuges. Iran could produce its first bomb’s worth of weapons-grade uranium
in a matter of weeks and material for subsequent bombs shortly thereafter.
In recent months, Iran has paid almost no price for these nuclear advances. On
the contrary, its geopolitical position has improved. It has bolstered ties with
China and Russia while normalizing relations with some of its neighbors,
including its regional rival Saudi Arabia. It is easy to see why Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei might believe he can have his nuclear cake and eat it, too.
If the Biden administration has given up on Plan A—reviving the JCPOA—it has
also shied away from pivoting to the Plan B proposed by many analysts as well as
Israeli officials: heaping economic, political, and military pressure on Tehran.
Instead, it has opted for Plan C, an attempt to prevent the worst outcomes of
the nuclear standoff with Iran while retaining the possibility of resolving it
in the future. Washington seeks to prevent an Iranian bomb, avoid the risky
escalation that could come with heightened pressure, and kick the can on a
diplomatic solution in the hopes that conditions for a new deal to replace the
JCPOA become more favorable over time.
But even if it is successful, Plan C would come with costs. It would allow Iran
to steadily develop its nuclear program while shaking off its economic and
political isolation. And instead of laying the groundwork for a deal that
reverses Tehran’s nuclear program, this strategy risks cementing Iran’s status
as a nuclear threshold state. As a result, the United States and other
interested countries should redouble their efforts to prevent Iran from taking
key steps on its path toward a nuclear weapon and complicate Tehran’s efforts to
forge new economic lifelines and normalize its nuclear status. This approach
offers the best chance of averting the worst-case scenarios of a nuclear-armed
Iran or a war in the Middle East while also preserving the potential for some
kind of diplomatic agreement down the road.
THE LIMITS OF PLAN C
The Biden administration’s embrace of Plan C reflects its desire to avoid
provoking a crisis that would distract from other priorities. It also reflects
the fact that the preferred option—a deal that reverses Iran’s nuclear advances
and imposes strict limits and transparency measures on its program—will remain
elusive and costly for the foreseeable future. In other words, Plan C is an
acknowledgment that although the status quo is not good, the alternatives could
be far worse.
Even before war erupted in Europe, the Biden administration was intent on
shifting attention away from the Middle East and toward competition with China
and Russia. A major showdown with Iran, U.S. officials reasoned, would absorb
bandwidth and divert resources away from more important issues. And within the
Middle East, the administration has other objectives that may have a better
chance of success, such as brokering a normalization deal between Israel and
Saudi Arabia.
As a result, “de-escalation” has been the watchword of U.S. policy toward Iran.
In practice, this has translated into lax enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions on
Iran and restrained responses to attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq by
Iranian proxies. The United States also agreed to forgo censuring Tehran at a
March meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors,
after Iran was revealed to have briefly produced 84 percent enriched
material—just shy of the typical 90 percent level for weapons-grade uranium but
still high enough to be used in a bomb if produced in sufficient quantities. In
addition, Iran has been allowed to indirectly access some of its frozen funds in
Iraq, while Tehran has permitted a small but insufficient increase in
international monitoring of its program.
If Iran can be deterred by other means, then a deal may be less urgent.
The Biden administration may believe that it can avoid the worst-case
scenario—an Iranian nuclear weapon—just by staying the course. Even if Iran
keeps expanding its uranium stockpile, Washington hopes that a combination of
large-scale drills with Israel, Israeli threats to use military force against
Iran, repeated U.S. statements that it will not allow Iran to acquire a weapon,
and warnings by Europe that enriching uranium to 90 percent would trigger the
reimposition of UN sanctions will deter Tehran from producing bomb-grade
material. That it would probably take Iran between one and two years to build a
deliverable nuclear weapon—a lengthy effort that would risk international
detection—may be a further disincentive for Tehran to attempt a nuclear
breakout. If Iran can be deterred by other means, then a deal may be less
urgent.
The political costs of a renewed deal have also increased. The JCPOA was never
popular in the U.S. Congress, but the Biden administration was initially willing
to take a hit to revive the agreement. Circumstances have changed, however. It
is difficult for the administration to ask Congress to support a nuclear deal
that would inevitably enrich Moscow’s top military supplier. The memory of
Tehran’s violent response to mass protests last year is still fresh, and Iran
continues to commit human rights abuses, including executions of demonstrators.
With the 2024 U.S. elections on the horizon, the Biden administration is
probably loath to wage a fight in Congress, particularly for a deal that would
almost certainly contain fewer restrictions on Iranian nuclear activity than the
original JCPOA.
But embedded in Plan C is the hope that the prospects for diplomacy may ripen
over time. Domestic conditions in Iran may worsen because of sanctions and
economic mismanagement. The regime will continue to struggle to meet Iranians’
basic social, political, and economic needs, virtually guaranteeing the
recurrence of major protests. A combination of these factors could eventually
persuade the regime to seek a deal. And a potential end to Russia’s war in
Ukraine could weaken opposition in the United States to diplomacy with Iran.
CATASTROPHIC SUCCESS
Plan C could still go wrong. Iran could begin accumulating weapons-grade
uranium—either because it believes the United States will not respond to such a
provocation or because it is angered by an Israeli assassination or covert
attack. That, in turn, could trigger an escalatory cycle that leads to a U.S. or
Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.
But success—defined as no Iranian bomb, no escalation, and the prospect for
diplomacy at some point in the future—will bring its own challenges. Time will
not necessarily work in the United States’ favor. While Washington waits, Iran
will advance its nuclear program, strengthen its relations with China and
Russia, exploit weakened sanctions pressure, and become less isolated from the
rest of the world. In the past, Iran has been willing to curb its nuclear
activities when it believed the risks of continuing them were too high and it
had a credible diplomatic off-ramp. But such conditions are unlikely to
materialize anytime soon. Indeed, Iran may believe that its nuclear brinkmanship
is finally paying off.
In the coming months, Iran will continue to improve its already advanced nuclear
program by expanding its stockpile of enriched uranium, enhancing its centrifuge
manufacturing capabilities, and better insulating its facilities from military
strikes. Tehran will also continue to gain valuable knowledge by operating
larger numbers of advanced centrifuges. Collectively, these steps will make it
more difficult for the international community to curtail Iran’s nuclear
program. Nuclear material can be eliminated, but nuclear knowledge cannot.
In theory, by advancing its nuclear program, Tehran will have more chips to play
in any future negotiation. But Iranian leaders may be reluctant to trade away
any progress toward a bomb. Since Iran halted its bomb-making program in 2003,
its ultimate nuclear goal has probably been to become a “threshold” or “virtual”
nuclear state––a country that can quickly build nuclear weapons if it needs to.
For Tehran, that is not just a technical benchmark but a political one: it would
force the world to accept Iran’s de facto nuclear status and thereby reduce
international pressure on the regime. Believing they are on the path to
achieving this goal, Iranian leaders may see little reason to unwind their
nuclear program, especially given their concerns that sanctions relief from the
United States is unreliable and hinges on the occupant of the White House.
FRIENDS IN HIGH PLACES
Shifting geopolitical winds may also harden Iran’s opposition to a deal.
Although China and Russia will likely continue to oppose an Iranian nuclear
weapon, both are increasingly running interference for Iran in international
forums, and their cooperation with Iran weakens a sanctions regime that might
otherwise convince Tehran to cut a nuclear deal. The days of China and Russia
working with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany
to contain Iran, as they did to negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal, are likely over
for now.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has played to Iran’s advantage as well, making
Moscow more reliant on Tehran’s military capability. In exchange for hundreds of
Iranian drones and shiploads of ammunition, Russia has provided Iran with
political support, cash, and Western technology captured on the Ukrainian
battlefield. It is also considering transferring advanced weaponry, such as
fighter jets and missile technology, to Iran. That Russia will remain isolated
from the West for the foreseeable future only increases Tehran’s leverage with
Moscow.
Iran and Russia will continue to compete in global commodity markets, but their
economic ties will likely deepen. As the United States seeks to crack down on
Russian sanctions-evasion networks, Moscow is working to bolster other trade
routes and financial ties, including with Iran, that bypass U.S. restrictions.
Iran is also expanding ties with China, its core economic lifeline. So far this
year, China has imported about one million barrels per day of Iranian crude oil
and condensate (a very light liquid hydrocarbon), accounting for about 80
percent of total exports. U.S. sanctions prohibit this trade, but Washington has
not enforced them, and energy volumes have risen significantly over the past two
years. The longer Washington refrains from acting, the more established and
resilient this trade will become.
Beijing and Moscow have not delivered as much economic support to Tehran as it
would probably like, and commercial and political constraints could undermine
cooperation down the road. Moreover, these relationships cannot fully replace
the benefits Iran would accrue from the sanctions relief that a comprehensive
nuclear deal would provide, nor can they free Iran from its economic malaise in
the near term. But as long as Iran believes that China and Russia will deliver
more than the United States and Europe can, it will likely stay the course.
NORMALIZATION WITHOUT DENUCLEARIZATION
Dynamics in Iran’s immediate neighborhood also play to Tehran’s advantage. Over
the last year, Iran has normalized ties with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the
United Arab Emirates, lowering regional tensions. Tehran’s deal with Saudi
Arabia, brokered by China in March, in particular could reduce missile threats
to Saudi cities and bolster the chances for a resolution to the conflict in
Yemen, assuming Iran abides by the deal.
Although the United States shares the goal of regional de-escalation, the
detente in the Persian Gulf complicates Washington’s traditional model for
nuclear diplomacy. The Biden administration and the Gulf countries have tried to
frame a nuclear deal as a prerequisite to unlocking greater political and
economic ties—an equation undermined by the recent normalization deals. For
instance, the United Arab Emirates is seeking to increase trade with Iran and,
according to one Emirati official, surpass China as Iran’s top trade partner.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said shortly after the normalization
deal was announced that there were “a lot of opportunities for Saudi investments
in Iran,” and in May, Iran’s Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ehsan
Khandouzi visited Riyadh to discuss expanding economic links. Although U.S.
sanctions will continue to impede economic flows, Gulf states may be more
willing to test Washington’s limits over time.
Iran will probably also feel the wind at its back in October, when UN
restrictions on its ballistic missile program and related sanctions are
scheduled to expire. These include a provision, which Iran currently violates,
banning it from shipping drones to Russia. If Western governments allow these
provisions to expire without a plan to replace them, they will risk sending
Iranian leaders the message that their approach is working.
China and Russia are increasingly running interference for Iran in international
forums.
For their part, Western policymakers will likely still see a deal as too
politically costly, at least into next year. In addition to supporting Russia’s
war efforts and repressing its own citizens, Iran has rounded up and detained
many dual nationals, especially Europeans. Even if Tehran takes steps to
temporarily ease some of these tensions—for example, by releasing American
prisoners—it will be hard-pressed to alleviate all of them. Within Iran,
parliamentary elections in February 2024 and presidential elections in mid-2025
will likely create additional turmoil and raise the costs of political
compromise for hardline Iranian officials. The death of Khamenei, the
84-year-old supreme leader, would kick off a potentially volatile transition
period, during which Iran would probably shelve any attempts at nuclear
diplomacy.
But there may be a silver lining to this otherwise dim outlook: Tehran’s
improved geopolitical position could reinforce its decision not to weaponize its
nuclear program—at least for now. To be sure, some within Iran may lobby for
crossing the nuclear threshold. But Iran’s nuclear program has always been a
means to an end—security, status, independence, and international influence—not
an end in and of itself. If it is accruing these benefits, Tehran may conclude
that going all the way to a bomb is not necessary and would place those gains at
risk.
PREVENTING THE WORST
It is unclear how long the new status quo can last. One inflection point will
come in October 2025, when the 2015 nuclear deal’s “snapback” mechanism expires,
and the UN Security Council removes Iran’s nuclear program from its agenda. (The
Security Council resolution that endorsed the JCPOA remains in effect even
though the deal is defunct, and the sunsets on UN restrictions will continue on
autopilot unless Western powers trigger the snapback provisions.) The United
States and its allies will have to decide whether reimposing UN sanctions on
Iran is worth the risk of Iran producing weapons-grade uranium and leaving the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which Tehran has threatened to do in response.
For its part, Iran will have to decide whether to carry out those threats and
accept the risks of disrupting an otherwise favorable environment, including by
inviting a potential military strike on its nuclear facilities. It is therefore
possible that, as the 2025 deadline looms, these risks will concentrate minds in
Washington and Tehran on finding a political solution.
Yet the United States need not wait until then to start mitigating the risks of
a blowup. Even within the limits of Plan C, there are steps Washington should
take to try to slow Iran’s nuclear progress and its burgeoning relationship with
China and Russia.
First, the United States should increase its efforts to deter Iran from further
advancing its nuclear program—whether by reaching higher levels of enrichment,
diverting nuclear material, resuming weaponization work, or leaving the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty. To that end, the Biden administration should organize a
joint statement with a diverse set of countries—such as Brazil, India, Japan,
South Korea, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—to express
concern about Iran’s nuclear provocations and the damage that further
escalations, such as 90 percent enrichment, would incur. Washington should also
encourage these and other countries, including China, to send that message to
Iran directly.
Washington should not give up on diplomacy altogether.
Taking a page from its Ukraine playbook, the United States could work with other
countries to agree on tough consequences for specific Iranian nuclear steps and
make those consequences clear to Iran in advance. If Tehran’s strategy rests
partly on developing new global partnerships to normalize its nuclear
trajectory, then Washington should seek to deny it that objective.
Second, the United States should try to complicate Iran’s outreach to China and
Russia, eroding the benefits of Tehran’s pivot east. Washington should ramp up
the enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, including by raising
pressure on intermediary states. It should also work with Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan to expose Iranian-Russian links and complicate
sanctions-evasion routes.
Finally, even if the chances of a deal seem slim, Washington should not give up
on diplomacy altogether. For example, it should explore how Iranian-Saudi
diplomacy could open the door for regional nuclear constraints—potentially
providing some limits on future nuclear activities and assurances against
weapons production—while remaining realistic about what such arrangements can
achieve. There is little reason to believe that, given the enormous gap between
Iranian and Gulf nuclear capabilities, Tehran would be motivated to meaningfully
curtail its enrichment program. That tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are
decreasing precisely when Iran’s nuclear program is reaching new heights
probably reinforces Tehran’s belief that it can both move closer to the bomb and
have better ties with its neighbors (or worse, that Iran’s nuclear expansion
motivated Saudi Arabia to mend fences). Nevertheless, it is possible that Gulf
countries will be able to agree on enhanced transparency measures and stronger
nuclear safeguards, commitments not to reprocess nuclear fuel or produce
weapons-grade uranium, and perhaps even mechanisms for peaceful nuclear
cooperation.
These measures would be a far cry from the stringent limits in the JCPOA, and
the United States would still have to contend with Iran as a virtual nuclear
state. But in the absence of any real chance of a comprehensive nuclear deal,
they may be the best the Biden administration can hope for.
Morocco leads the way in building a sustainable future
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/June 10, 2023
Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing global challenges of our
time, posing significant threats to ecosystems, economies and human well-being.
Its impacts are expected to worsen existing vulnerabilities, especially in
developing countries, leading to increased poverty, food insecurity and
displacement. As global temperatures continue to rise, it is imperative that
nations worldwide collaborate and take decisive action to mitigate and adapt to
the warming planet.
Morocco has emerged as a surprising frontrunner in sustainable development
strategies that center around the mitigation of climate risks. The country
recognizes its vulnerability to climate-change impacts and has taken proactive
steps to transition to a green economy. Morocco has also set ambitious goals,
striving to generate more than half of its electricity from renewable sources by
2030. With initiatives such as the Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, Morocco is
demonstrating its commitment to clean energy and setting an example for other
nations to follow.
Addressing climate change is a particularly urgent priority for Morocco. Its
vulnerability to various natural hazards, such as floods, droughts and heat
waves is well-documented, putting more pressure on Morocco’s limited natural
resources. Rising temperatures pose a significant threat to Morocco’s economy
and society, primarily through impacts on agriculture, scarce water resources
and worsening desertification. The latter, for instance, could lead to a decline
in fertile land and exacerbates water scarcity. This, in turn, can result in the
displacement of rural populations, increased poverty and heightened social
inequalities.
Meanwhile, water shortages are expected to intensify in the coming years,
especially in the south, and agriculture — a vital sector contributing 13
percent to Morocco’s GDP — is also at risk due to climate variability and
change, with droughts affecting cereal yields by 60 percent. The agricultural
sector, when combined with fishing and forestry industries, employs nearly a
third of the country’s workforce, necessitating its insulation from further
climate-induced shocks.
Morocco’s dependence on imported fossil fuels has been another cause for
concern, beyond merely complicating its plans to reduce its emissions footprint.
The North African country must also bolster its energy security while
simultaneously accelerating its sustainable development. In contrast to
neighboring countries such as Algeria and Libya, which are major oil and gas
producers, Morocco has limited domestic energy resources and relies heavily on
imports to meet its energy needs.
This reliance on imported fossil fuels puts Morocco at a disadvantage when it
comes to its energy security and sustainable development compared to its
resource-rich neighbors. This dependence on imported fossil fuels makes Morocco
more susceptible to global market fluctuations, as it is vulnerable to price and
supply shocks. Relying on fossil fuels also hinders the country’s transition to
a sustainable future, as it contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and
exacerbates the impacts of climate change.
Given these challenges, Morocco has charted a path toward mitigation and
adaptation, ensuring a more resilient, sustainable future for its population.
Morocco’s proactive approach to transitioning, as demonstrated by the country’s
“Plan Vert,” is quickly becoming an important example of how peer nations can
feasibly transform their economies and societies without sidelining development
goals. Continued investment, trade and climate-focused engagement will further
propel Morocco to overcome hurdles and lead the way in the planet’s fight to
limit rising temperatures.
Morocco’s ambitious renewable energy targets are already paving the way for a
greener future. The country has committed to adding 10 gigawatts (GW) of
renewable energy capacity between 2018 and 2030, consisting of 4,560 megawatts
(MW) of solar and 4,200 MW of wind power. These targets are part of a broader
plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 18 percent and increase renewable
power capacity to more than 50 percent by 2030. To achieve these goals, Morocco
has been successful in attracting international investment, with key players
such as ACWA Power, Aries and TSK partnering with the Moroccan Agency for Solar
Energy, or Masen, to develop these projects.
By increasing renewable energy capacity, Morocco can achieve greater energy
independence and reduce vulnerability to disruptions.
The resulting achievements in solar and wind energy by Morocco are truly
impressive. The Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, with a combined capacity of about
580MW, is the world’s largest concentrated solar power plant. This complex plays
a crucial role in providing clean energy, offsetting more than 770,000 tons of
carbon dioxide emissions annually. In addition, Morocco boasts the Tarfaya Wind
Farm, one of the largest wind farms in Africa, which produces roughly 325MW.
These projects, and the many to come, exemplify the North African country’s push
to accelerate renewable energy development, a critical component of the green
economies of the future.
The positive impact of Morocco’s renewable energy initiatives on its economy and
energy security is undeniable. First, the renewable energy sector has
significant job creation potential, with the Solar Complex alone generating
about 1,000 construction jobs and 60 permanent jobs during its operation and
maintenance phases.
Second, these projects help to reduce the country’s dependence on imported
fossil fuels, as 90 percent of its energy is currently imported. By increasing
renewable energy capacity, Morocco can achieve greater energy independence and
reduce vulnerability to disruptions. Lastly, there is export potential for
Morocco’s renewable energy. As the country continues to develop its renewable
energy infrastructure, it may be able to export clean energy to neighboring
countries, further bolstering its economy and solidifying its position as a
green leader in this part of the world.
Besides ambitions to “export the sun,” Morocco has been implementing robust
water management strategies as part of its adaptation strategies. It has
invested in desalination, such as the Agadir plant, which produces 275,000 cubic
meters of water a day. This initiative not only tackles water scarcity but also
provides clean water for agricultural purposes, helping to secure the
livelihoods of local communities. Additionally, Morocco has been working on
improving wastewater treatment infrastructure to combat water pollution and
reuse treated water for irrigation. The country’s National Liquid Sanitation
Program aims to increase wastewater treatment coverage to 60 percent by 2030.
Elsewhere, Morocco is actively engaged in reforestation efforts as a
climate-change adaptation strategy. The country’s High Atlas Reforestation
Project aims to restore degraded lands, combat desertification and preserve
biodiversity. By planting native tree species, Morocco is enhancing the
resilience of local ecosystems and preventing soil erosion. Furthermore,
Morocco’s commitment to the Bonn Challenge — a global effort to restore 350
million hectares of deforested and degraded land by 2030 — underscores its
dedication to reforestation and biodiversity conservation. Morocco aims to
restore 1 million hectares of land by 2030, which will be a significant
contribution to this global objective.
Beyond its borders, Morocco continues to play a significant role in advancing
renewable energy across Africa, notably through its involvement in the African
Renewable Energy Initiative, or AREI. Launched in 2015, AREI aims to develop at
least 10GW of new renewable energy generation capacity on the continent and to
mobilize financial support for African countries to transition to sustainable
energy systems.
In addition to its contributions to AREI, Morocco has forged strong partnerships
with other North African countries to share knowledge and resources. The country
has collaborated with Tunisia and Egypt on various renewable energy projects,
including the establishment of a joint research center for solar and wind energy
technologies. Furthermore, Morocco is tipped as a major contributor in
collaborations between European and North African countries to develop renewable
energy projects across the region and export clean electricity to Europe.
As the world grapples with the urgent need to address climate change, Morocco’s
leadership in fostering regional cooperation and championing global climate
action serves as an inspiring example for other nations. Continued collaboration
at both regional and global levels is essential for achieving the ambitious
goals set forth in the Paris Agreement and ensuring a sustainable future for
all.
Countries around the world should look to Morocco as a model for how bold action
and collaboration can drive meaningful progress in the fight against climate
change. By embracing renewable energy, forging partnerships and advocating for
robust climate policies, Morocco has demonstrated that it is possible to achieve
a greener and more sustainable future, and that other nations can follow suit.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the Ibn Khaldun
Strategic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins
University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, and the
former adviser to the dean of the board of executive directors of the World Bank
Group.
Full steam ahead for both Democrats and the Republicans
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/June 10, 2023
There is a long way to go before the first ballot is cast in the US presidential
election in November 2024. Nevertheless, it is already full steam ahead for both
the main parties as the Democrats and, especially, the Republicans select their
candidates for the nationwide poll that will decide who leads this mighty
country for the next four years. When the dust has settled and the respective
candidates are chosen, the most likely outcome seems to be a rematch between
incumbent President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump. All things
considered, who could have imagined this turn of events in the aftermath of the
2020 election? When we consider US elections it would be foolish at this early
stage to attempt to predict either the result of the presidential primaries or
who the next occupant of the White House will be.
History has taught us that major upsets can and do happen, and when the field of
candidates is rather crowded, as is the case with the Republicans, and the long,
sharp knives are already out, anything could happen in the coming months.
It might seem like not a day goes by without another Republican hopeful throwing
their hat into the ring. Most recently it was Mike Pence, former vice president
under Trump, whose candidacy threatened to turn an already inflamed situation
into an explosive one, which was followed by an announcement from the former
governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie.
There are some elements of this particular presidential race that make it even
more unpredictable than usual. One is the age factor, which cannot be ignored
considering that the incumbent will be nearly 82 years old in November 2024, and
the person he is most likely to face will be 78.
In a recent NBC News poll, 70 percent of those surveyed said Biden should not
run again due to his age, although a majority of Democrats supported his
candidacy. Asked whether age was a factor, 69 percent said yes.
The second issue, one which casts doubt on Trump’s candidacy, is the legal woes
he faces wherever he goes. It is astonishing that following a court ruling in a
civil suit that found Trump had sexually abused the journalist E. Jean Carroll
in a New York department store changing room 27 years ago, a ruling that for the
first time in history branded a former US president a sexual predator, that he
is still regarded as a fit candidate to run for the highest office in the land
by the vast majority of Republican primary voters.
This is as much a reflection of American society as it is of Trump himself. Yet,
given that Trump will have to deal with a number of other legal battles before
the next election, this support might yet dwindle or be surpassed by the legal
implications of those cases.
There is a real danger that while the US is facing one of its most challenging
periods, domestically and internationally, the primaries and the subsequent
election campaign will turn into the kind of media circus that is inevitable
when Trump is involved, and therefore distract from the country’s priorities.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, however, we can be fairly certain Biden
will be running for reelection, and so all eyes will also be on his running
mate, Kamala Harris.
Many voters who are considering voting for Biden would not, under normal
circumstances, be too concerned about whoever is running for vice president. On
this occasion, however, considering the incumbent’s age and Harris being the
most likely to take over should the president be incapacitated, those voters
might give serious thought to her suitability for the top job.
The coming cycle of American elections is unlikely to be a shining example of
the civility and constructiveness of democratic debate.
There is also a strength in continuity, and the current administration has done
a much better job in running the country’s affairs than approval ratings give it
credit for. Under difficult circumstances it managed to steady a very rocky ship
after the tumultuous four years of Trump’s term, led the country out of the
COVID-19 pandemic, stood up to Russia over the war in Ukraine, and changed
budgetary priorities with considerable success.
On the Republican side, notwithstanding the large number of presidential
wannabes, the agenda is still being dictated by Trump and his caprices. A party
that once prided itself on providing a big tent that could house a wide range of
opinions has been rapidly shrinking and lurching further and further to the
populist right as it turns into a cauldron of chaos.
While voters have been expressing their concerns about a wide range of issues,
the two leading Republican contenders, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who
are not so far apart in terms of their political and social views, are, despite
or maybe because of this, already concentrating on their respective smear
campaigns and the more emotive aspects of campaigning than on substantive
issues.
For now, Trump continues to rally his core supporters, who instead of
acknowledging his failings view criticism of him as part of a conspiracy by the
state and his political rivals. Consequently, he continues to command the
support of about half of the party, nearly double that of DeSantis. Meanwhile,
Pence and Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador to the UN, enjoy only single-digit
support, with the rest of the field trailing even further behind.
For now, a Trump candidacy looks like a done deal but, as noted, there is a very
long way to go. The inquiry into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, his
indictment on charges of falsifying his accounts in connection with hush money
paid to an adult film star, the investigation in Georgia into whether he acted
illegally in an attempt to overturn his defeat in the state’s 2020 presidential
vote, and his improper retention of classified government documents at his
Florida home could all land him in hot water and prevent him from running for
president.
Inevitably, this is encouraging the other contenders, including those who
previously worked for him, to remain in the race and add fuel to the fire of the
various investigations through more information and allegations.
At this early stage, DeSantis is probably making a mistake by trying to
out-Trump Trump in terms of disruption, but he also makes Trump look more
liberal in comparison on issues such as freedom of speech or abortion — which is
a very dubious achievement.
But this might be simply a tactical move, considering his young age, designed to
position him as Trump’s heir apparent for the 2028 election.
From the perspective of the Democrats, the work might be done for them should
the Republican primaries turn into a bloodbath while they themselves build on
their better-than-expected mid-term successes and hope that, come November next
year, the seeds of policies they planted at the beginning of the Biden
presidency will yield convincing enough fruit before the American people make
their final decision.
One thing is guaranteed, though: This coming cycle of elections, from the
presidential vote to the last of the gubernatorials, is unlikely to be a shining
example of the civility and constructiveness of democratic debate.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the
international written and electronic media.
Twitter: @YMekelberg